vs
-155 +154
UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Age 32
Height 5' 2"
Reach 63.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 43
Height 5' 5"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Emily Ducote
7.45 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
7.84 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
0.2 TD Avg
14.0% TD Acc.
94.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jessica Penne
2.63 SLpM
33.0% Str. Acc.
5.05 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
1.29 TD Avg
18.0% TD Acc.
36.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Emily Ducote
Moneyline
Caesars -155
KO/TKO
BetWay +500
Submission
BetRivers +650
Decision
BetWay +163
Jessica Penne
Moneyline
FanDuel +154
KO/TKO
FanDuel +2000
Submission
FanDuel +550
Decision
FanDuel +300
Emily Ducote - Fight History
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 109 of 293 37% 126 of 311 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Emily Ducote 0 143 of 214 66% 147 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 43 of 99 43% 43 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Emily Ducote 0 30 of 54 55% 30 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 36 of 112 32% 37 of 113 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Emily Ducote 0 60 of 83 72% 60 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Vanessa Demopoulos 0 30 of 82 36% 46 of 99 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Emily Ducote 0 53 of 77 68% 57 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:46
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vanessa Demopoulos 109 of 293 37% 76 of 250 18 of 25 15 of 18 106 of 289 3 of 4 0 of 0
Emily Ducote 143 of 214 66% 86 of 150 22 of 26 35 of 38 140 of 211 0 of 0 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vanessa Demopoulos 43 of 99 43% 25 of 75 7 of 11 11 of 13 43 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
Emily Ducote 30 of 54 55% 15 of 37 5 of 5 10 of 12 30 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vanessa Demopoulos 36 of 112 32% 24 of 98 10 of 11 2 of 3 34 of 110 2 of 2 0 of 0
Emily Ducote 60 of 83 72% 37 of 58 10 of 12 13 of 13 60 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vanessa Demopoulos 30 of 82 36% 27 of 77 1 of 3 2 of 2 29 of 80 1 of 2 0 of 0
Emily Ducote 53 of 77 68% 34 of 55 7 of 9 12 of 13 50 of 74 0 of 0 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Angelo sees Emily Ducote as the better striker with legitimate power and good wrestling defense, while Vanessa Demopoulos relies on volume and footwork but lacks real power. He expects Ducote to win a close decision, likely 29-28, due to her superior striking accuracy and durability. He notes the over 2.5 rounds is a good bet and suggests Vanessa plus 3.5 on the scorecard as a solid bet.

over 2.5 rounds, Vanessa +3.5 on scorecard
"I think Vanessa has the cardio and the volume Edge but Emily should be the better Striker and likely wins a 2928"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Cody points out Demopoulos has been gifted decisions but is often outlanded and outgrappled. He notes Ducote is a well-rounded fighter with college wrestling, a BJJ black belt, and good striking. Demopoulos's takedown attempts are often unsuccessful, and she struggles with volume. Cody expects Ducote to outland her significantly and win a clear decision.

Ducote by decision
"Emily doody's the pick by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Demopoulos got a gift decision in her last fight and is not technical with her punches. Ducote has solid all-around skills, throws great leg kicks and clean combinations, and will use her wrestling defensively to keep the fight standing. Expects Ducote to outbox and outstrike Demopoulos on the feet and win on the scorecards.

"I expect Emily ducatti to win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Paul believes Ducote's wrestling background and superior striking will be too much for Demopoulos. He notes Demopoulos has been on the wrong end of controversial decisions but is often outworked. Ducote should be able to keep the fight standing and outpoint Demopoulos, likely winning a decision.

"Seems pretty clear to me outside of like slipping on a banana peel that dakot probably wins this and likely by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

The MMA Guru picks Emily Ducote over Vanessa Demopoulos, citing Ducote's superior activity and output. He argues that Demopoulos arguably lost several of her UFC fights, including against Kanako Murata, and that her volume is much lower than Ducote's. He expects Ducote to win a unanimous decision, 30-27, due to her three times higher output.

"I'm going to go with Emily deot here she's actually a betting favorite here but the majority there's a lot of people on tapology that are actually picking uh Vanessa demopulos with which is just insane to me"
WIN vs Ashley Yoder
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Emily Ducote 0 102 of 269 37% 105 of 276 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:09
Ashley Yoder 0 117 of 210 55% 119 of 213 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Emily Ducote 0 32 of 68 47% 35 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ashley Yoder 0 26 of 66 39% 26 of 67 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:03
2 Emily Ducote 0 35 of 89 39% 35 of 91 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:09
Ashley Yoder 0 34 of 61 55% 35 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Emily Ducote 0 35 of 112 31% 35 of 114 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ashley Yoder 0 57 of 83 68% 58 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Emily Ducote 102 of 269 37% 59 of 216 32 of 40 11 of 13 93 of 259 9 of 10 0 of 0
Ashley Yoder 117 of 210 55% 69 of 145 29 of 40 19 of 25 117 of 209 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Emily Ducote 32 of 68 47% 21 of 55 7 of 9 4 of 4 32 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ashley Yoder 26 of 66 39% 11 of 41 9 of 14 6 of 11 26 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Emily Ducote 35 of 89 39% 21 of 68 11 of 17 3 of 4 32 of 86 3 of 3 0 of 0
Ashley Yoder 34 of 61 55% 19 of 42 8 of 12 7 of 7 34 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Emily Ducote 35 of 112 31% 17 of 93 14 of 14 4 of 5 29 of 105 6 of 7 0 of 0
Ashley Yoder 57 of 83 68% 39 of 62 12 of 14 6 of 7 57 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Angelo picks Emily Ducote confidently, noting she is better than her UFC record suggests and that Ashley Yoder is returning after two years off. He thinks Ducote's volume and durability will be key, but he is not touching the -270 moneyline, hoping the line tightens.

"Emily ducat is the pretty confident pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Big Brady picks Emily Ducote to win by decision. He notes Ducote has good takedown defense and is the much better striker. He criticizes Ashley Yoder's long layoff and poor performance against Jinh Yu Frey, and expects Ducote to stuff takedowns and out-strike Yoder over three rounds.

"give me Emily D Cody win this fight stuff the takedowns and get the better the Striking across 15 minutes Emily D Cody by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Cody picks Ducote, emphasizing her college wrestling, BJJ black belt, and technical boxing. He notes that Yoder is 3-7 in the UFC, on a two-year layoff, and has no path to victory. Cody believes Ducote will stuff takedowns and out-strike Yoder easily.

"Emily Ducote has got her number by a fair bit"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

The host picks Emily Ducote, expecting her to use a calf-kicking approach similar to her debut against Jessica Pen. He notes Yoder's long layoff and shoulder surgeries, and believes Ducote's striking and pressure will be too much. He predicts a decision win, possibly a KO, and suggests parlaying the moneyline.

by decision; possible KO
"I'm going to go ducatti and ducatti by decision look for her to utilize her calf kicking approach to slow down uh Yoda and then open up with their hands after that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Paul picks Ducote, citing her wrestling background, BJJ black belt, and superior striking. He notes that Yoder has poor wrestling and striking, and that Ducote can stuff takedowns and outbox her. Paul expects a dominant decision win for Ducote.

"Emily Ducote cruises to a pretty easy decision victory"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

The MMA Guru picks Emily Ducote over Ashley Yoder, citing Yoder's poor record (8-8 in UFC, on a 2-fight losing streak, lost 4 of last 5) and long layoff of over two years. He acknowledges Ducote is also on a losing streak but notes she fought tougher competition (Angela Hill, Lupita Godinez) and is younger. He dismisses the matchup as a question, implying Ducote should win easily.

"obviously gonna have to go with Emily dakot here over Ashley Yoda Ashley Yoda is 8 and eight in the UFC on a two- fight losing streak"
LOSS vs Loopy Godinez
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Loopy Godinez 0 112 of 270 41% 117 of 275 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:11
Emily Ducote 0 132 of 246 53% 133 of 248 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Loopy Godinez 0 34 of 81 41% 34 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Emily Ducote 0 49 of 81 60% 49 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Loopy Godinez 0 43 of 102 42% 43 of 102 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Emily Ducote 0 43 of 77 55% 43 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Loopy Godinez 0 35 of 87 40% 40 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Emily Ducote 0 40 of 88 45% 41 of 90 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Loopy Godinez 112 of 270 41% 71 of 214 21 of 33 20 of 23 106 of 262 6 of 8 0 of 0
Emily Ducote 132 of 246 53% 106 of 214 12 of 18 14 of 14 121 of 232 11 of 14 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Loopy Godinez 34 of 81 41% 19 of 61 7 of 11 8 of 9 32 of 79 2 of 2 0 of 0
Emily Ducote 49 of 81 60% 39 of 71 4 of 4 6 of 6 46 of 78 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Loopy Godinez 43 of 102 42% 28 of 81 8 of 13 7 of 8 40 of 98 3 of 4 0 of 0
Emily Ducote 43 of 77 55% 36 of 68 4 of 6 3 of 3 36 of 67 7 of 10 0 of 0
3 Loopy Godinez 35 of 87 40% 24 of 72 6 of 9 5 of 6 34 of 85 1 of 2 0 of 0
Emily Ducote 40 of 88 45% 31 of 75 4 of 8 5 of 5 39 of 87 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Angelo picks Emily Ducote because she is a former Invicta champion with slick counter-striking, power, and good wrestling. He criticizes Lupita Godinez for poor decision-making and a miserable track record on short notice. He has a small 0.25-unit bet on Ducote at +119, expecting the line to flip to favor Ducote.

0.25 unit bet at +119
"I like Emily Ducati to get this done she's big she's powerful she should be able to defend the takedown attempts I do have a quarter of a unit uniformis 100 bucks I got 25 bucks on her at plus …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Big Brady picks Lupita Godinez to win by decision, but with a caveat. He notes Godinez is a phenomenal wrestler but has recently fallen in love with her hands, which makes no sense to him. If she wrestles, she wins easily; if she doesn't, it could be close. He expects her to mix in takedowns and win a decision, but he's not fully confident in her game plan.

decision
"give me loopy to go out there mixing takedowns and and make this look easy but it all comes down to whether she she goes for takedowns or not so give me loopy give me loopy by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Cody sees this as a close striking match where both women have wrestling but may not use it. He favors Ducote's striking volume and power, and questions Godinez's fight IQ after she failed to wrestle against Angela Hill. He expects a decision win for Ducote.

"I am going to take Emily to Cody ever so slightly."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Ducote but with low confidence. He thinks Godinez won't push a pace that makes Ducote uncomfortable, leaving Ducote as the sharper striker. However, he notes that Godinez is capable of a complete performance and that Ducote hasn't shown she can handle a high-level all-around fight. He also mentions that if Godinez accepts taking hard counters and tries to break Ducote, it could work, but he suspects Ducote will persuade her not to.

Ducote opened at +111, currently +140; Godinez opened at -122, currently -158.
"I'll ride with you on the fly on Ducote. I think that Godinez won't push a pace that makes her uncomfortable and then that leaves Ducote as the sharper striker."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Daniel Levi picks Emily Ducote as a slight underdog. He thinks Godinez is still developing and has shown vulnerabilities, while Ducote has better volume and striking. He envisions the fight being close, possibly 1-1 going into the third, where Ducote's experience and output could earn her a decision. He notes Ducote landed 116 significant strikes in her UFC debut and believes she can stuff takedowns and chip away over three rounds.

Ducote by decision
"I'm gonna go with Emily ducote to win this decision over Lupi godinous"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

The host picks Lupita Godinez, believing her wrestling will be the difference maker. He thinks Godinez has slicker boxing and can chain takedowns behind combinations. He expects a decision win, though notes Ducate is a good kickboxer and the fight could be close.

"give me a lupito godinez and I'm going to take her to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Paul agrees, noting that Godinez's win over Calvillo was close and could have gone either way. He thinks Ducote is more dynamic on the feet and that the line offers value. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Ducote.

"I think at plus 130 not the worst look at all."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

The MMA Guru picks Lupita Godinez, citing her versatility as a Swiss Army knife compared to Ducote's striking-focused style. He likes the quick turnaround and believes Godinez will mix in grappling to push a pace. He notes Godinez's wins over Ariane Carnelossi and Loma Lookboonmee, the latter being a better striker than Ducote. He expects a close decision, 29-28.

decision 29-28
"I'm gonna side with Lupita godinez here ... win a close decision 29-28"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Zane picks Ducote, reasoning that Godinez's pressure style may not work well against a sharp counter puncher like Ducote. He notes that Ducote has a reach advantage and can land counters when Godinez tries to swarm. However, he expresses concern about Ducote's tendency to shut down under pressure, as seen against Angela Hill, and her lackluster UFC performances. He also worries about Godinez's wrestling if she can get the fight to the ground.

Ducote opened at +111, currently +140; Godinez opened at -122, currently -158.
"I'm gonna take one more flyer on Ducote. I think Godinez's pace is not going to function that well against somebody who can just instantly start landing counters on her."
LOSS vs Angela Hill
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Angela Hill 0 182 of 345 52% 190 of 353 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Emily Ducote 0 71 of 173 41% 76 of 178 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Angela Hill 0 50 of 104 48% 50 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Emily Ducote 0 21 of 53 39% 21 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Angela Hill 0 67 of 120 55% 68 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Emily Ducote 0 16 of 50 32% 18 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Angela Hill 0 65 of 121 53% 72 of 128 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Emily Ducote 0 34 of 70 48% 37 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Angela Hill 182 of 345 52% 95 of 240 73 of 88 14 of 17 130 of 292 52 of 53 0 of 0
Emily Ducote 71 of 173 41% 49 of 147 18 of 22 4 of 4 62 of 161 9 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Angela Hill 50 of 104 48% 30 of 81 14 of 16 6 of 7 48 of 102 2 of 2 0 of 0
Emily Ducote 21 of 53 39% 17 of 48 3 of 4 1 of 1 20 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Angela Hill 67 of 120 55% 35 of 81 29 of 36 3 of 3 44 of 96 23 of 24 0 of 0
Emily Ducote 16 of 50 32% 10 of 43 5 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 46 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Angela Hill 65 of 121 53% 30 of 78 30 of 36 5 of 7 38 of 94 27 of 27 0 of 0
Emily Ducote 34 of 70 48% 22 of 56 10 of 12 2 of 2 28 of 63 6 of 7 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Emily Ducote vs. Angela Hill
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ducote (-120), Hill (+100)

Round 1
In what has become a theme of sorts, a well-experienced competitor will once again take on someone far younger, far less-traveled, or both. This comes in the form of Hill (14-12, 9-12 UFC), who has faced a who’s who in the division, against Ducote (12-6, 1-0 UFC), who has found new life at 115 pounds. The strawweights meet in the middle without touching gloves while referee Andrew Glenn sits back, and Hill initiates the offense with several jabs that all miss the mark. Ducote reaches her with a single jab, and she scores a right hand over the top when Hill tries to score on her. Hill switches stances as the woo birds cry out in the cage when the strawweights are inactive. Ducote stays composed and lines up a few punches down the middle, intercepting Hill coming towards her. Hill whips a high kick up that glances off the shoulder guard, and she sneaks a right hand around the guard. Hill kicks low, and Ducote punches high. Hill manages to split the guard with a jab, and Ducote pays her back with a clean right hand. Ducote aims another right hand down the pipe, and Hill keeps busy with punches and low kicks. Hill marks up her foe’s nose with jabs, and she crowds “Gordinha” and tags her with a few short punches. Hill swings a right to the body, and a left to the head, and only the former lands. Hill connects with a solid combination to knock Ducote back, and her punches are finding their home while Ducote is struggling to reach the target. “Overkill” crowds her foe with a few sharp blows, and Ducote reels and backs off. The mixing of offense high and low keeps Ducote guessing and looking for options, and Ducote largely answers with single strikes. Hill darts forward with a jab, and a head kick that follows slaps into the guard. A quick superwoman punch from Hill gets through, and she gets off a jab and several chasing punches until the bell rings, and blood trickles down the mouth of Ducote.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill

Round 2
The ladies engage to start off the second round, and Ducote trades punches instead of allowing Hill to tag her. Hill catches her with a left hand, but not before Ducote gets off a clean body shot. Hill steps forward, clinches up, knees the body, and splits before her foe can response. Hill walks through a right hand and scores few, and she goes low with a pair of calf kicks. Ducote sits down on three punches that whiz past the face of “Overkill,” who darts in and out to land flush. A left hand from Hill pounds into the cheek, and she ducks down for one to the body while Ducote thinks it is coming up high and keeps her guard up there. Hill kicks the body, punches the head, rips the body and kicks low in rapid succession. When they tie up again, Hill lays into her with several knees and an elbow, and Ducote can do little in response but push off. Hill jumps forward with a head kick, and Ducote gets her guard up in time but cannot block the subsequent punches aimed at her chin. Ducote connects with one right hand, and Hill pushes through it to get off four in response. This same situation happens again, so Hill answers with a standing tomahawk elbow. Ducote shoots for a takedown, and Hill stops this in her tracks and knees Ducote in the breadbasket several times before the separation. The two score left hooks at the same time, and they both exchange high kicks. Hill splits the guard with a one-two, and Ducote gets her respect for a moment with a right hand. As Ducote ties her up again, Hill replies with multiple knees up the middle. Hill strings together punches to the head and body, and Hill leaps forward to knee three times and slash an elbow up high. Hill slips a punch to land one, and she kicks the body twice before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill

Round 3
When they meet in the middle to open up the last round, Hill strikes first with kicks to all targets, calf, body and head. Ducote swipes back at her with a few punches, but Hill does not bat an eye and continues to come forward. Ducote breaks off from a quick clinch after taking a couple knees, and she swings wildly with a left hand. Hill strides forward with a left and a right, and Ducote stands firm and throws back at her. The ladies trade punches, and Hill leads the dance at practically every occasion both with aggression and sheer volume. Ducote aims strikes to the body in hopes of slowing down “Overkill,” and when she does, Hill pelts her with a pair of overhand rights. Hill fakes a level change and goes up high with a kick, and Ducote can barely block it in time. Hill is feeling herself as she presses the pace without worry of what comes back at her, and she works her way into a clinch to score knees and elbows. While Ducote replies with a few of her own, Hill doubles or triples up on her with these exchanges. Ducote sits down on a slapping calf kick, and she just misses with a haymaker of a right hand. Hill walks her down and grabs a Thai clinch, and she lays into Ducote with vicious knees that draw cheers when each one lands as if the crowd was watching a muay thai fight. Ducote tries to give her a few back, but Hill cannot be slowed and is not remotely fading. Hill jumps with a flying knee before grabbing another Thai clinch, and she again slams her knees into the body. Hill continues to beat Ducote around the Octagon like she caught her breaking into her apartment, and Ducote escapes on the outside while occasionally throwing back but is woefully outmatched. In the final seconds, Ducote decides to grab hold of Hill’s left leg to pursue a single, but there is nothing to it as the fight ends. This was one-way traffic for “Overkill,” who blunts the momentum of the formerly surging Ducote in a pillar-to-post performance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill)

The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Emily Ducote via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Angelo picks Emily Ducote, praising her straight punches, accuracy, and wrestling. He thinks Angela Hill's length won't help because Ducote will get past it with straight shots. He expects Ducote to cruise to a decision win. He mentions he may bet Ducote by decision, though he normally avoids specific props.

Considers betting Ducote by decision
"Emily's going to win this fight I think she's gonna cruise to a decision win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Big Brady leans towards Ducote, citing her power advantage and wrestling background. He notes Hill has struggled with wrestlers and expects Ducote to mix in takedowns to seal rounds. He predicts a competitive fight but Ducote winning a decision.

Ducote wins by decision
"I'm going to take Dakota to win Dakota to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Cody leans Hill, citing her ability to win close decisions. He notes Ducote may not wrestle, leading to a striking battle that favors Hill. He likes the plus money and expects a split decision.

Hill by decision; split decision prop at +350
"I'm almost feeling that ever so slight plus money towards Angela Hill but I would juice it with that hill by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Connor picks Emily Ducote, citing her natural feel for counter punching, good footwork, and tight guard. He notes that Hill's aggressive approach will likely lull Ducote into doing what she does best, and that Hill struggles against opponents who are solid within themselves.

"I think Dakota is the kind of fighter who like given Angela Hills general approach is going to be sort of shaken out of even if she does come in a little starstruck because Angela Hill is going to try …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Daniel Levi picks Emily Ducote to win a split decision, expecting Hill to cry robbery. He notes Hill's inconsistency and that Ducote has a good approach. He is not betting on this fight.

"go with uh Emily decody to win a split decision and Angela Hill to cry robbery period"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

The host picks Ducote, believing her mix of striking and grappling will give her the edge. He thinks she can shut down Hill's volume by landing takedowns and scoring with the judges. He is cautious because Ducote is still relatively new to the UFC but likes her overall game. He would consider a bet on Ducote by decision if plus money is available.

Ducote by decision (if plus money)
"give me Ducati I think that her uh mix of striking and grappling will give her the edge in this fight uh I think she wins it via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Paul picks Hill, seeing it as a coin flip. He notes Hill's experience and close decision history. He thinks if Ducote doesn't wrestle, Hill can edge a decision. He likes the plus money.

Hill by decision; split decision prop at +350
"I got Hill it sounds like you have you're going you're leaning ever so slightly to Hill too"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Angela Hill

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill as an underdog, noting she gave Amanda Lemos a tough fight and can handle Ducote's power. He believes Hill's pressure and volume will win her the last two rounds, predicting a split decision victory.

Hill by split decision (29-28)
"I'm going with Angela Hill as an underdog"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Zane picks Emily Ducote, believing she is talented and athletic enough to overcome Hill. He expects Ducote to win two close rounds by landing bigger shots, while Hill might win one round through clinch work or takedowns. He notes Ducote's smooth striking and ability to set up her opponent.

"I think Dakota is talented enough and athletic enough to overcome Hill as that test and be a 15 fighter."
WIN vs Jessica Penne
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Emily Ducote 0 63 of 244 25% 68 of 249 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 116 of 205 56% 117 of 206 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Emily Ducote 0 17 of 67 25% 20 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 35 of 58 60% 35 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Emily Ducote 0 26 of 88 29% 28 of 90 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 37 of 73 50% 38 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Emily Ducote 0 20 of 89 22% 20 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 44 of 74 59% 44 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Emily Ducote 63 of 244 25% 37 of 208 26 of 36 0 of 0 55 of 234 8 of 10 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 116 of 205 56% 41 of 113 24 of 34 51 of 58 115 of 203 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Emily Ducote 17 of 67 25% 13 of 61 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 65 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 35 of 58 60% 13 of 33 10 of 12 12 of 13 35 of 57 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Emily Ducote 26 of 88 29% 14 of 72 12 of 16 0 of 0 20 of 80 6 of 8 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 37 of 73 50% 17 of 49 6 of 10 14 of 14 36 of 72 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Emily Ducote 20 of 89 22% 10 of 75 10 of 14 0 of 0 20 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 44 of 74 59% 11 of 31 8 of 12 25 of 31 44 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Angelo picks Emily Ducote but is hesitant due to a five-week trend of underdogs winning the first fight of the night. He notes Ducote's patient, accurate striking and wrestling, but acknowledges Penne's experience and the risk of a bad decision. He advises against betting on this fight.

advises not to bet on this fight
"emily's the pick but jessica has proven she can beat some really tough women she's going to be live in this fight and that stupid underdog winning the opening fight nonsense"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Big Brady picks Emily Ducote to win by decision. He notes that Ducote is 11 years younger, has good takedown defense, and should be the better striker on the feet. He thinks she can stuff Penne's takedowns and outpoint her for three rounds. He warns that if Penne gets the fight to the mat, she could submit Ducote, but he expects Ducote to keep it standing.

"give me to cody to win give me dakota to stop the takedowns and ultimately pick apart jessica penney for a three-round decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Cody is confident in Ducote, citing her wrestling background, BJJ black belt, and well-rounded game. He notes that Penne is 39 and relies on takedowns, but Ducote has the grappling to defend and the striking to win on the feet. He believes Ducote has multiple paths to victory and is a good price at -150.

Jessica Penne under 1.5 takedowns
"emily decodey could be a too good to be true price tag in this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Daniel Levi leans Emily Ducote, noting she is experienced and has paid her dues. He expects a close fight where Ducote lands better strikes and gets top control, but must be careful of Penne's submissions. He sees it as a dog-or-pass situation and predicts a close decision.

close decision; dog-or-pass
"i'll lean do cody you know edge it out split unanimous whatever close fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Paul also picks Ducote, agreeing that she is the better fighter in all aspects. He notes her youth, experience, and recent improvements. He believes Penne's magic is running out and that Ducote will win, possibly by decision or TKO.

Jessica Penne under 1.5 takedowns
"i think emily decodey could be a too good to be true price tag in this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

The MMA Guru picks Emily Ducote over Jessica Penne, citing Ducote's power as a key advantage in the women's division. He notes that Ducote finished Danielle Taylor, who beat Penne by decision, and that Penne doesn't know how to fight. He acknowledges the unpredictability of women's MMA but sides with Ducote's power, believing it will impact judges' scorecards even if she is outlanded.

"i'm going to be going with emily de cote here in the early prelim opener i reckon she'll get this one done by 2928 decision over jessica penney"
Jessica Penne - Fight History
LOSS vs Elise Reed
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elise Reed 0 54 of 125 43% 98 of 174 1 of 13 7% 0 0 3:16
Jessica Penne 0 117 of 188 62% 229 of 306 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elise Reed 0 19 of 33 57% 51 of 70 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:49
Jessica Penne 0 6 of 17 35% 105 of 122 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Elise Reed 0 18 of 42 42% 26 of 50 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:27
Jessica Penne 0 44 of 70 62% 56 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Elise Reed 0 17 of 50 34% 21 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 67 of 101 66% 68 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elise Reed 54 of 125 43% 26 of 89 18 of 25 10 of 11 44 of 112 10 of 13 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 117 of 188 62% 84 of 145 18 of 19 15 of 24 110 of 181 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elise Reed 19 of 33 57% 7 of 20 9 of 9 3 of 4 14 of 28 5 of 5 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 6 of 17 35% 0 of 10 2 of 2 4 of 5 5 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Elise Reed 18 of 42 42% 7 of 28 5 of 8 6 of 6 14 of 37 4 of 5 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 44 of 70 62% 31 of 50 8 of 8 5 of 12 39 of 65 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Elise Reed 17 of 50 34% 12 of 41 4 of 8 1 of 1 16 of 47 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 67 of 101 66% 53 of 85 8 of 9 6 of 7 66 of 100 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Angelo picks Elise Reed because he believes Jessica Penne, at 41 years old and coming off a disinterested performance, is not fully committed to fighting anymore. He notes Reed's busy striking, good cardio, and inconsistency but thinks she is the hungrier fighter. He sees value at -150 and also likes the over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet. He speculates Penne is more focused on her post-fighting career and won't have the same drive.

over 2.5 rounds
"Elise Reed wins this fight she's the pick minus 150 seems like decent value"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jessica Penne

Big Brady picks Jessica Penne by first-round submission. He highlights Reed's terrible ground game, with four submission losses, and Penne's BJJ black belt. He notes Penne is 41 and coming off a layoff, but if she gets the fight to the mat, she will submit Reed. He is surprised Reed is favored.

first round submission
"I'll take the dog here and Jessica pen to get the fight down to the ground and get a sub in the first round so Jessica pen a first round submission"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Elise Reed

Connor picks Reed, though he doesn't feel good about it. He notes that Reed has natural power and can crack, and that she has been able to win fights despite her flaws. He acknowledges that Reed often stops fighting after hurting opponents, but thinks she might be able to knock Penne out or do enough to win.

"I think I would pick Reed in this one."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Reed is a striker and can keep the fight upright enough to batter Penne and win on the scorecards. However, Penne winning by submission at +500 is a tempting sprinkle, as it could take just one back take or takedown for Penne to utilize her jiu-jitsu advantage. The official prediction is Reed by decision.

Penne by submission at +500 (sprinkle)
"I do lean with the striker as I do think Reed can keep this fight upright enough for her to batter a pen and win this fight on the scorecards although a pen to win by submission at plus 500 …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jessica Penne

The Guru initially does not want to pick Jessica Penne due to her age (41) and recent losses, but after considering that Elise Reed is 'garbage' and Penne is taller and rangier, he decides to take the underdog. He admits he doesn't normally check odds beforehand but notes Penne is an underdog and goes with her.

"I'm gonna go with Jessica pen we move on"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jessica Penne

Zane picks Penne because he believes Reed will not be consistent enough to keep Penne at range. He notes that Reed has a tendency to stop fighting after landing a big shot, and that Penne is hittable and predictable, but Reed doesn't have the footwork to stay away. He thinks Penne will eventually tangle up with Reed and get the grappling exchange she wants.

Penne opened at +137, now +152; Reed opened at -153, now -172. Zane says you should not be betting on Elise Reed.
"I think I will take Penne actually."
LOSS vs Tabatha Ricci
Submission (armbar) R2 2:14 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tabatha Ricci 0 6 of 25 24% 19 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 36 of 54 66% 81 of 109 4 of 5 80% 1 0 5:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tabatha Ricci 0 3 of 13 23% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 26 of 39 66% 62 of 83 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:54
2 Tabatha Ricci 0 3 of 12 25% 5 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 10 of 15 66% 19 of 26 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tabatha Ricci 6 of 25 24% 4 of 20 2 of 4 0 of 1 4 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 1
Jessica Penne 36 of 54 66% 19 of 35 2 of 2 15 of 17 15 of 32 2 of 2 19 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tabatha Ricci 3 of 13 23% 2 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jessica Penne 26 of 39 66% 13 of 26 1 of 1 12 of 12 9 of 22 1 of 1 16 of 16
2 Tabatha Ricci 3 of 12 25% 2 of 8 1 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 10 of 15 66% 6 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 5 6 of 10 1 of 1 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Angelo is confident in Tabatha Ricci, citing her strong grappling, top pressure, and submission skills. He notes that Jessica Penne has only 40% takedown defense and that Ricci should dominate with her wrestling. Angelo bet 1.5 units on Ricci at -240.

"Tabitha Ricci is a very good Grappler always looking for submissions she doesn't sacrifice position or chase either she's very heavy on top good pressure good control"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Big Brady picks Tabatha Ricci, noting her ability to dictate where the fight takes place with her wrestling and judo. He mentions Penne's poor takedown defense (40%) and that Ricci can safely grapple without getting caught in submissions. He predicts a decision win for Ricci, with the fight primarily on the mat.

"I'm gonna take Richie to win this fight I'm gonna take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Cody picks Ricci, citing her youth, judo, and well-rounded game. He thinks Penne is too old and has been off for four years. He expects Ricci to win by decision or submission.

Tabatha Ricci by decision
"tab the reach you have to reach you by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Connor picks Tabatha Ricci, though he is not confident. He notes that Ricci is a high-level BJJ black belt and will likely take the fight to the ground, where Penne is actually good. However, he thinks Ricci's aggression and functional grappling will allow her to win positions and avoid being submitted. Connor admits the fight is hard to analyze and could go either way.

"I guess I got to take Ricci because I just don't see the fact that she's gonna go into the only place where penne is actually good as like a death sentence for her."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Jacob agrees with Angelo, comparing this fight to Ricci's previous win over Polyana Viana. He believes Penne is a step down in competition and that Ricci will dominate with her pressure and top control. Jacob is fully confident in Ricci.

"I think that this is going to be honestly a carbon copy of that Pollyanna Vienna fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Ricci is a high-level BJJ black belt with good wrestling and control time. Penne is 40, has poor striking, and relies on dragging fights to the ground, but Ricci will likely be on top and avoid submissions. Ricci grinds out a decision victory.

"I think this is a great stylistic matchup for Tabitha Richie... I think penny is more than likely going to be fighting off of her back for the majority of this matchup and I just don't think it's going to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Ricci. He notes the line has moved from -175 to -325, indicating sharp money. He thinks Ricci's grappling and youth will be too much for Penne.

"they've tightened up that number to stay away from maybe Richie's to pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

The MMA Guru picks Tabatha Ricci, citing Jessica Penne's age (40) and Ricci's grappling advantage. He expects Ricci to control top position and win a split decision, noting that women's MMA judging often favors control time.

"I'm gonna trust in taba for Richie... I think she's going to be able to get down Jessica Penney and sort of like ride out top position."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Zane also picks Ricci, agreeing that her functional aggression and grappling will be enough to overcome Penne's awkward style. He notes that Penne's striking is robotic and she struggles with range, while Ricci will close the distance and make it a grappling match. Zane thinks Ricci's speed and confidence give her an edge, but he is not fully convinced.

"I think I'll pick Ricci too just because I think she's gonna fight with you know a functional aggression that will get her into good positions."
LOSS vs Emily Ducote
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Emily Ducote 0 63 of 244 25% 68 of 249 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 116 of 205 56% 117 of 206 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Emily Ducote 0 17 of 67 25% 20 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 35 of 58 60% 35 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Emily Ducote 0 26 of 88 29% 28 of 90 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 37 of 73 50% 38 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Emily Ducote 0 20 of 89 22% 20 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 44 of 74 59% 44 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Emily Ducote 63 of 244 25% 37 of 208 26 of 36 0 of 0 55 of 234 8 of 10 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 116 of 205 56% 41 of 113 24 of 34 51 of 58 115 of 203 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Emily Ducote 17 of 67 25% 13 of 61 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 65 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 35 of 58 60% 13 of 33 10 of 12 12 of 13 35 of 57 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Emily Ducote 26 of 88 29% 14 of 72 12 of 16 0 of 0 20 of 80 6 of 8 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 37 of 73 50% 17 of 49 6 of 10 14 of 14 36 of 72 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Emily Ducote 20 of 89 22% 10 of 75 10 of 14 0 of 0 20 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 44 of 74 59% 11 of 31 8 of 12 25 of 31 44 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Angelo picks Emily Ducote but is hesitant due to a five-week trend of underdogs winning the first fight of the night. He notes Ducote's patient, accurate striking and wrestling, but acknowledges Penne's experience and the risk of a bad decision. He advises against betting on this fight.

advises not to bet on this fight
"emily's the pick but jessica has proven she can beat some really tough women she's going to be live in this fight and that stupid underdog winning the opening fight nonsense"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Big Brady picks Emily Ducote to win by decision. He notes that Ducote is 11 years younger, has good takedown defense, and should be the better striker on the feet. He thinks she can stuff Penne's takedowns and outpoint her for three rounds. He warns that if Penne gets the fight to the mat, she could submit Ducote, but he expects Ducote to keep it standing.

"give me to cody to win give me dakota to stop the takedowns and ultimately pick apart jessica penney for a three-round decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Cody is confident in Ducote, citing her wrestling background, BJJ black belt, and well-rounded game. He notes that Penne is 39 and relies on takedowns, but Ducote has the grappling to defend and the striking to win on the feet. He believes Ducote has multiple paths to victory and is a good price at -150.

Jessica Penne under 1.5 takedowns
"emily decodey could be a too good to be true price tag in this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Daniel Levi leans Emily Ducote, noting she is experienced and has paid her dues. He expects a close fight where Ducote lands better strikes and gets top control, but must be careful of Penne's submissions. He sees it as a dog-or-pass situation and predicts a close decision.

close decision; dog-or-pass
"i'll lean do cody you know edge it out split unanimous whatever close fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Paul also picks Ducote, agreeing that she is the better fighter in all aspects. He notes her youth, experience, and recent improvements. He believes Penne's magic is running out and that Ducote will win, possibly by decision or TKO.

Jessica Penne under 1.5 takedowns
"i think emily decodey could be a too good to be true price tag in this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

The MMA Guru picks Emily Ducote over Jessica Penne, citing Ducote's power as a key advantage in the women's division. He notes that Ducote finished Danielle Taylor, who beat Penne by decision, and that Penne doesn't know how to fight. He acknowledges the unpredictability of women's MMA but sides with Ducote's power, believing it will impact judges' scorecards even if she is outlanded.

"i'm going to be going with emily de cote here in the early prelim opener i reckon she'll get this one done by 2928 decision over jessica penney"
Submission (armbar) R1 4:32 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jessica Penne 0 8 of 12 66% 28 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 12 of 19 63% 21 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jessica Penne 0 8 of 12 66% 28 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 12 of 19 63% 21 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jessica Penne 8 of 12 66% 3 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 5 4 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 12 of 19 63% 9 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jessica Penne 8 of 12 66% 3 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 5 4 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 12 of 19 63% 9 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 8 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Angelo picks Kowalkiewicz, stating she is on a different level than Penne. He notes she was almost a champion and should win, though Penne can make it ugly by leaning on her. He mentions she has trained with a new team and expects her to piece up Penne.

"Carolina is gonna put an absolute whooping on Penne... she's on a completely different level."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Big Brady thinks both fighters are past their prime but favors Kowalkiewicz due to her higher volume and better striking. He notes Penne will want takedowns but Kowalkiewicz has solid takedown defense (75%) and trains with JJ. He worries about Penne controlling rounds if she gets takedowns, but ultimately picks Kowalkiewicz by decision.

"I'm gonna take Carolina here I think it's a solid matchup for her."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody picks Kowalkiewicz but with hesitation. He notes her losing streak and potential motivation issues, but believes she is the more skilled fighter. He expects a close decision win.

fight goes to decision
"i will go with karolina kovakiewicz but whereas it should be just like let's hammer this baby home it's like there's buyer beware now"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jessica Penne

Daniel Levi slightly leans Jessica Penne as the underdog, citing that both fighters are past their primes but Penne has been more active and showed some offensive output in her last fight. He notes that Karolina Kowalkiewicz has not been the same since her diagnosis and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Penne can win a split decision by taking the back or having top control, though he acknowledges Kowalkiewicz is better on the feet.

"I'll actually slightly lean towards the dog Jessica Penne"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Kowalkiewicz should keep the fight on the feet and use her striking to outwork Penne. Penne needs to grapple to win, but Kowalkiewicz has good movement and should avoid the clinch. The striking difference is wide, and Kowalkiewicz may even get a TKO. She is coming back after a long layoff but has a favorable matchup. Decision is most likely, but a KO prop has value.

Kowalkiewicz by KO/TKO +900; Kowalkiewicz by decision +120
"I do like Carolina here I think she gets a victory out for you know after uh her extended layoff um decision is probably the most likely outcome."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick. He acknowledges the narrative around Kowalkiewicz's motivation and Penne's hunger, but does not commit.

TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Jessica Penne. He argues Kowalkiewicz has faced much better competition and is more technical, despite being older (35). He criticizes Penne's striking and notes she didn't deserve her last win. He predicts Kowalkiewicz will outstrike Penne to a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with karolina kovalkovic way more experienced way better technically and i think she'll just outstrike jessica penney to a 30-27 unanimous decision win"
WIN vs Loopy Godinez
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Apr 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jessica Penne 0 31 of 87 35% 98 of 158 1 of 7 14% 0 0 4:30
Loopy Godinez 0 40 of 74 54% 68 of 106 3 of 9 33% 0 0 4:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jessica Penne 0 15 of 40 37% 27 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:43
Loopy Godinez 0 13 of 31 41% 22 of 41 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:38
2 Jessica Penne 0 13 of 30 43% 24 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:49
Loopy Godinez 0 17 of 24 70% 26 of 33 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:06
3 Jessica Penne 0 3 of 17 17% 47 of 61 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:58
Loopy Godinez 0 10 of 19 52% 20 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jessica Penne 31 of 87 35% 19 of 63 12 of 24 0 of 0 29 of 82 2 of 5 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 40 of 74 54% 31 of 63 7 of 8 2 of 3 37 of 68 3 of 4 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jessica Penne 15 of 40 37% 10 of 30 5 of 10 0 of 0 13 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 13 of 31 41% 10 of 27 3 of 3 0 of 1 11 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 2
2 Jessica Penne 13 of 30 43% 7 of 20 6 of 10 0 of 0 13 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 17 of 24 70% 14 of 20 2 of 3 1 of 1 17 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jessica Penne 3 of 17 17% 2 of 13 1 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 10 of 19 52% 7 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by dominant decision. He notes that Penne is 38 years old, hasn't fought in nearly four years, and hasn't won in six years. He believes Godinez has a massive striking advantage and is strong enough to get back up if taken down. He expects Godinez to stuff takedowns and out-strike Penne. He does not see a finish likely as Godinez has no knockout wins and Penne is tough to submit. He considers Godinez a parlay piece but not in his own parlay.

Considered as parlay piece but not used
"i'm gonna take gadina's here to win a pretty dominant decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Cody is very high on Godinez, praising her boxing, takedown defense, and cardio. He thinks Penne is old (38), has been out for years due to USADA, and has a history of getting hit and bleeding. He expects Godinez to keep the fight standing and win by decision or late TKO. He likes the third round finish prop at 16-1.

Godinez by TKO in round 3 at 16-1, Godinez by knockout
"i think godinez and she's one of your biggest favorites on the card i actually do agree with it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Daniel Levi picks Loopy Godinez, noting her crisp hands and toughness. He questions what happens if the fight goes to the mat, as Godinez's competition has been subpar, but believes she will piece up Jessica Penne on the feet. Levi mentions that Penne is nearing 40 and has been through a lot, including a USADA case, and that she has shown hesitancy in recent fights. He expects Godinez to win, possibly by knockout.

possible knockout
"i got lupita for sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Manpreet picks Godinez by decision, but with hesitation due to Penne's long layoff and Godinez's unproven level. He believes Godinez's boxing and pressure will overwhelm Penne, who is 38 and has been away for four years. He expects Godinez to out-strike Penne over three rounds, though he notes Penne's submission threat if the fight goes to the ground.

Godinez by decision -115; Godinez by finish in round 3 +1500
"i let godena is here not with the utmost confidence though because i want to see her prove herself against girls that are you know not lindsey garbett and not vanessa demopolis"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Godinez has crisp boxing and power for 115 lbs. He thinks Penne's stand-up is marginal and she has been finished by elite fighters. He likes the under 2.5 rounds at +255 and Godinez by knockout. He is confident in Godinez winning.

under 2.5 rounds at +255, Godinez by knockout
"i wouldn't be surprised to see lupita godness knock out uh penne"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez to win by close decision. He doubts Jessica Penne's dedication after a long layoff since 2017, suggesting she may not have been training. He notes Godinez has a decent amateur career and some good wins, though not amazing. He believes Penne's mind may not be in the fight at 38 years old.

"i'm going to go of the new wave of talent in lupita gordina's loopy herself i think she'll get the job done by close decision 29 28"
LOSS vs Danielle Taylor
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · Apr 22, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Danielle Taylor 0 69 of 178 38% 71 of 181 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Jessica Penne 0 72 of 176 40% 76 of 182 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Danielle Taylor 0 19 of 54 35% 19 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 22 of 60 36% 23 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Danielle Taylor 0 31 of 72 43% 31 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 29 of 72 40% 32 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Danielle Taylor 0 19 of 52 36% 21 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Jessica Penne 0 21 of 44 47% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Danielle Taylor 69 of 178 38% 37 of 136 31 of 40 1 of 2 55 of 159 14 of 19 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 72 of 176 40% 43 of 141 11 of 14 18 of 21 67 of 167 5 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Danielle Taylor 19 of 54 35% 10 of 41 9 of 13 0 of 0 18 of 52 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 22 of 60 36% 14 of 50 2 of 2 6 of 8 21 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Danielle Taylor 31 of 72 43% 15 of 53 15 of 17 1 of 2 22 of 61 9 of 11 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 29 of 72 40% 18 of 57 5 of 8 6 of 7 26 of 66 3 of 6 0 of 0
3 Danielle Taylor 19 of 52 36% 12 of 42 7 of 10 0 of 0 15 of 46 4 of 6 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 21 of 44 47% 11 of 34 4 of 4 6 of 6 20 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R2 2:56 · UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · Jun 04, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 27 of 91 29% 28 of 92 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 117 of 205 57% 118 of 206 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 18 of 57 31% 19 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 64 of 107 59% 65 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
2 Jéssica Andrade 0 9 of 34 26% 9 of 34 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 53 of 98 54% 53 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 27 of 91 29% 17 of 67 10 of 23 0 of 1 19 of 80 8 of 11 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 117 of 205 57% 90 of 171 26 of 33 1 of 1 78 of 145 39 of 60 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 18 of 57 31% 8 of 36 10 of 21 0 of 0 10 of 46 8 of 11 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 64 of 107 59% 50 of 90 13 of 16 1 of 1 49 of 87 15 of 20 0 of 0
2 Jéssica Andrade 9 of 34 26% 9 of 31 0 of 2 0 of 1 9 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 53 of 98 54% 40 of 81 13 of 17 0 of 0 29 of 58 24 of 40 0 of 0
TKO (punches and knee) R3 4:22 · UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs. Penne · Jun 20, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 126 of 204 61% 162 of 247 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
Jessica Penne 0 25 of 88 28% 28 of 91 0 of 11 0% 0 0 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 23 of 47 48% 38 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:00
Jessica Penne 0 8 of 26 30% 11 of 29 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:39
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 57 of 81 70% 75 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Jessica Penne 0 9 of 33 27% 9 of 33 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:25
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 46 of 76 60% 49 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jessica Penne 0 8 of 29 27% 8 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 126 of 204 61% 81 of 155 18 of 22 27 of 27 96 of 160 24 of 35 6 of 9
Jessica Penne 25 of 88 28% 13 of 69 7 of 14 5 of 5 24 of 85 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 23 of 47 48% 12 of 35 4 of 5 7 of 7 12 of 32 5 of 8 6 of 7
Jessica Penne 8 of 26 30% 3 of 20 3 of 4 2 of 2 7 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 57 of 81 70% 40 of 62 8 of 10 9 of 9 40 of 58 17 of 23 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 9 of 33 27% 5 of 26 2 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 46 of 76 60% 29 of 58 6 of 7 11 of 11 44 of 70 2 of 4 0 of 2
Jessica Penne 8 of 29 27% 5 of 23 2 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Angelo picks Emily Ducote but is hesitant due to a five-week trend of underdogs winning the first fight of the night. He notes Ducote's patient, accurate striking and wrestling, but acknowledges Penne's experience and the risk of a bad decision. He advises against betting on this fight.

advises not to bet on this fight
"emily's the pick but jessica has proven she can beat some really tough women she's going to be live in this fight and that stupid underdog winning the opening fight nonsense"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Big Brady picks Emily Ducote to win by decision. He notes that Ducote is 11 years younger, has good takedown defense, and should be the better striker on the feet. He thinks she can stuff Penne's takedowns and outpoint her for three rounds. He warns that if Penne gets the fight to the mat, she could submit Ducote, but he expects Ducote to keep it standing.

"give me to cody to win give me dakota to stop the takedowns and ultimately pick apart jessica penney for a three-round decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Cody is confident in Ducote, citing her wrestling background, BJJ black belt, and well-rounded game. He notes that Penne is 39 and relies on takedowns, but Ducote has the grappling to defend and the striking to win on the feet. He believes Ducote has multiple paths to victory and is a good price at -150.

Jessica Penne under 1.5 takedowns
"emily decodey could be a too good to be true price tag in this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Daniel Levi leans Emily Ducote, noting she is experienced and has paid her dues. He expects a close fight where Ducote lands better strikes and gets top control, but must be careful of Penne's submissions. He sees it as a dog-or-pass situation and predicts a close decision.

close decision; dog-or-pass
"i'll lean do cody you know edge it out split unanimous whatever close fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Paul also picks Ducote, agreeing that she is the better fighter in all aspects. He notes her youth, experience, and recent improvements. He believes Penne's magic is running out and that Ducote will win, possibly by decision or TKO.

Jessica Penne under 1.5 takedowns
"i think emily decodey could be a too good to be true price tag in this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

The MMA Guru picks Emily Ducote over Jessica Penne, citing Ducote's power as a key advantage in the women's division. He notes that Ducote finished Danielle Taylor, who beat Penne by decision, and that Penne doesn't know how to fight. He acknowledges the unpredictability of women's MMA but sides with Ducote's power, believing it will impact judges' scorecards even if she is outlanded.

"i'm going to be going with emily de cote here in the early prelim opener i reckon she'll get this one done by 2928 decision over jessica penney"