UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez Next Fight
Age 39
Height 5' 4"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 40
Height 5' 3"
Reach 62.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Amanda Lemos
2.75 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
3.01 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
1.02 TD Avg
64.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Michelle Waterson-Gomez
3.42 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
4.25 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
1.39 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
69.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Amanda Lemos
Moneyline
Caesars -300
KO/TKO
FanDuel +290
Submission
FanDuel +1600
Decision
BetWay +100
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Moneyline
BetMGM +260
KO/TKO
BetMGM +2000
Submission
FanDuel +1300
Decision
BetRivers +500
Amanda Lemos - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 42 of 73 57% 51 of 84 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:04
Gillian Robertson 0 12 of 26 46% 64 of 81 3 of 7 42% 0 2 9:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 25 of 37 67% 27 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:40
Gillian Robertson 0 5 of 15 33% 9 of 20 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:38
2 Amanda Lemos 0 10 of 19 52% 11 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:14
Gillian Robertson 0 2 of 3 66% 26 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:06
3 Amanda Lemos 0 7 of 17 41% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Gillian Robertson 0 5 of 8 62% 29 of 33 1 of 4 25% 0 1 3:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 42 of 73 57% 31 of 61 8 of 8 3 of 4 27 of 57 2 of 2 13 of 14
Gillian Robertson 12 of 26 46% 5 of 12 2 of 4 5 of 10 10 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 25 of 37 67% 18 of 29 6 of 6 1 of 2 12 of 23 1 of 1 12 of 13
Gillian Robertson 5 of 15 33% 2 of 7 1 of 2 2 of 6 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 10 of 19 52% 7 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Gillian Robertson 2 of 3 66% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Amanda Lemos 7 of 17 41% 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 5 of 8 62% 3 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo picks Gillian Robertson but expresses nervousness. He acknowledges Robertson's poor takedowns and atrocious striking, but believes her relentless pressure and submission threats will cause Amanda Lemos to freeze. He also notes the smaller cage helps Robertson. He points out that Lemos has good takedown defense, having defended nine takedowns from Tatiana Suarez, but still thinks Robertson's volume will win out.

"I'm a little nervous, but I do think Jillian wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson to win by third-round submission. He likes her move to strawweight (5-1 record) and improved wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Lemos's age (38) and 64% takedown defense, and believes Robertson can get takedowns, control top position, and eventually submit her.

"Give me Gillian Robertson to win this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody picks Robertson but with caution. He highlights her improved wrestling and submission game under Dean Thomas, but worries about Lemos' takedown defense and power. He notes Robertson's striking is poor and if she can't get takedowns, she's in trouble. He advises not going too heavy on her.

"I'm probably just going to not have the coonies to take the dog play and take Robertson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Connor picks Robertson, citing that Lemos will engage in grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out, and Robertson's A-game is grappling. He compares it to Lemos's loss to Tatiana Suarez, where Lemos willingly clinched.

Odds: Lemos opened at +210, currently +170; Robertson opened at -250, currently -195.
"I got to pick her."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

James picks Gillian Robertson to win inside the distance via ground and pound or submission. He highlights Robertson's relentless grappling and Lemos' tendency to regrapple and make poor decisions on the ground. He notes that Lemos has a striking advantage but expects Robertson to eventually get takedowns and finish. He suggests the fight not going to decision as a potential bet.

fight doesn't go to decision
"my official prediction boys will be Jillian Robinson gets this one done inside the distance with a ground and pound or submission attack on the map."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

The host picks Lemos to win by knockout, believing her power and defensive grappling will be too much for Robertson. He expects Lemos to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually finishing Robertson. He notes that Robertson's lack of striking and physicality will be exposed, and that Lemos's experience against strong grapplers gives her the edge.

Lemos by KO
"I'm going to go with the Brazilian here. I know she's getting up there in age... Lemos has enough defensive grappling to shut that down from Robertson, keep this in the striking game and eventually find that knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Paul picks Robertson confidently, citing her recent run, coaching from Dean Thomas, and improved wrestling. He believes she will get takedowns and control the fight. He notes Lemos has low volume and can be taken down, though he acknowledges the price is steep.

"Julian Robertson's a pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Gillian Robertson

The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, despite her lack of striking power, because her grappling is consistent and Lemos has been out-grappled by top opponents. He thinks Robertson will get top position early and submit her in the second round, though he acknowledges Lemos could win if she stuffs a takedown and lands a big shot.

Prediction: submission in the second round
"I'm going to go with Gillian Robertson getting this one done by submission in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Zane leans Robertson, noting that Lemos will likely initiate grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out immediately, which plays into Robertson's strength. He acknowledges Robertson could get nuked on the feet but thinks Lemos's tendency to wrestle will cost her.

Odds: Lemos opened at +210, currently +170; Robertson opened at -250, currently -195.
"Yeah, I think I'm leaning Robertson. I mean, it's very clearly a fight where she could get nuked, but she could just hold it together."
CANCEL vs Gillian Robertson
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody picks Robertson, citing her improved grappling and game planning. He notes Lemos's takedown defense issues and expects Robertson to take her down, control position, and win a decision. He likes the decision prop.

Robertson by decision +230
"Gillian Robertson's the pick for me as well."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Connor picks Lemos, citing her athleticism and the fact that Robertson has never beaten a high-level athlete. He acknowledges Lemos's lack of development and tendency to waste time, but believes Robertson's mental block against athletic opponents will be her undoing. He notes that Lemos's recent wrestling is just a way to slow fights down, not a decisive advantage.

Odds: Lemos +170 underdog. Connor feels the line is long and sees the fight as close to even.
"I think she has unlike Lamo. She has continued to improve... but there is a conspicuous lack of meaningful athletic talent on her under her wind column."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Lucrative James picks Gillian Robertson confidently, emphasizing her relentless grappling and ground-and-pound. He notes Amanda Lemos' takedown defense and fight IQ issues, and believes Robertson will eventually get a takedown and finish via submission or ground-and-pound. He projects Robertson as a -175 favorite.

"My official prediction boys will be Julian Robinson. Gets this one done inside the distance with a ground and pound or submission attack on the map."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Paul also picks Robertson, highlighting her takedown ability and improved striking. He thinks Lemos's low volume and poor takedown defense will be exploited, and expects Robertson to win a decision. He likes the decision prop.

Robertson by decision +230
"G Rob by decision for me."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Zane picks Robertson but is hesitant, noting that Robertson has a technical advantage and has improved, but has historically struggled against athletic opponents. He worries Robertson may give too much respect to Lemos's speed and power, leading to poor takedown attempts. He sees this as a winnable fight for Robertson if she can stay confident and execute her game plan.

Odds: Robertson opened -110, now -200; Lemos opened -110, now +170. Zane notes the line feels long and sees the fight as close to even.
"I'm gonna pick my mush. I'm gonna stick with the idea that there's just a ceiling to Robertson's game that she imposes on herself."
LOSS vs Tatiana Suarez
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 20 of 39 51% 70 of 91 3 of 12 25% 0 0 9:34
Amanda Lemos 0 23 of 33 69% 39 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 7 of 10 70% 25 of 30 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:58
Amanda Lemos 0 5 of 6 83% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 5 of 14 35% 27 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:00
Amanda Lemos 0 5 of 5 100% 16 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Tatiana Suarez 0 8 of 15 53% 18 of 25 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:36
Amanda Lemos 0 13 of 22 59% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 20 of 39 51% 1 of 11 10 of 17 9 of 11 9 of 24 11 of 15 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 23 of 33 69% 12 of 21 4 of 5 7 of 7 14 of 22 4 of 4 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 7 of 10 70% 0 of 0 1 of 4 6 of 6 6 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 5 of 6 83% 0 of 0 4 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tatiana Suarez 5 of 14 35% 1 of 7 3 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 6 4 of 8 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 5 of 5 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4 4 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tatiana Suarez 8 of 15 53% 0 of 4 6 of 8 2 of 3 2 of 9 6 of 6 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 13 of 22 59% 11 of 20 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 12 3 of 3 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Angelo picks Tatiana, believing her wrestling will be too hard to consistently stop. He notes she is a dominant wrestler with almost five takedowns per 15 minutes, though her striking is just okay. He acknowledges Lemos has a ton of high-level experience and power, but thinks Tatiana's relentless pressure and ability to find a submission could be key. He mentions the -400 odds are tough to lay four units on someone coming off a loss, but still picks Tatiana.

Could be a sneaky under two and a half type bet when those round lines drop.
"I'm definitely going to pick Tatiana. I think the wrestling is just going to be too hard to consistently stop."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Big Brady picks Suarez despite her poor last performance against Jandiroba, noting Lemos fared even worse against the same opponent. He highlights Lemos's inability to stuff takedowns and suspect submission defense. He predicts Suarez wins by second-round submission, though he has concerns about her cardio and striking defense.

Second round submission
"I'm going to take Suarez to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

The host considers this a horrible stylistic matchup for Lemos, expecting Suarez to land takedowns, work to a dominant position, and eventually secure a submission. This is a strong pick with high confidence.

win by submission
"We should eventually see Suarez land those takedowns and work to a position where she can eventually incorporate a submission and force the tap from the Brazilian."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

The MMA Guru picks Tatiana Suarez, believing her grappling will be decisive. He notes Lemos has been outgrappled before and her aggressive style (big power swings, guillotine attempts) will leave her open to Suarez's takedowns. He predicts a second or third round ground-and-pound TKO, possibly from crucifix position.

Round 2 or 3 TKO
"I'm going to have to go with Tatiana Suarez. I think Lemos's style of fighting ... will leave her more open to the grappling of Suarez."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 12 of 21 57% 30 of 42 3 of 5 60% 0 0 7:58
Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 16 25% 40 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 3 of 5 60% 8 of 10 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:40
Iasmin Lucindo 0 0 of 4 0% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
2 Amanda Lemos 0 7 of 12 58% 10 of 16 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:41
Iasmin Lucindo 0 0 of 3 0% 12 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 4 50% 12 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:37
Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 9 44% 17 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 12 of 21 57% 8 of 16 2 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 4 of 6
Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 16 25% 2 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2
Iasmin Lucindo 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 7 of 12 58% 4 of 8 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 7 1 of 1 3 of 4
Iasmin Lucindo 0 of 3 0% 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Amanda Lemos 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 9 44% 2 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Connor picks Lemos because she is a physical force who can hit hard and is strong in the clinch. He notes that Lucindo is raw and messy, relying on speed and counters, but Lemos has excellent timing and power. Connor worries about Lemos's tendency to wrestle, which could play into Lucindo's hands, but believes Lemos's strength and durability will carry her. He sees Lucindo as too young and raw for this step up.

Odds: Lemos opened at -130, now +130; Lucindo opened at -110, now -140. Connor is surprised Lucindo is favored.
"I think I have to pick Limo. I think so too. I mean, the prospect of staying at long range and waiting and hoping to time a man to lamos, yeah, is a fundamentally dangerous proposition."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucrative James picks Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and multiple paths to victory. He notes Lemos is a better striker but has clear grappling deficiencies, having been submitted before. He thinks Lucindo can win by submission or decision through grappling control. He mentions he cashed on Lucindo by submission before and sees value in that prop.

Lucindo via submission at +550 (BetOnline); also decision win possible
"I have to side with Yasmin lendo here she's got better fight IQ she has more ways to win CU she can compete in the strike and if she stays at range but she can win via submiss and win …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Zane picks Lemos, agreeing that Lucindo is too raw and that Lemos's power and physicality will be too much. He notes that Lucindo's game is unstructured and she struggles to initiate, while Lemos is a fast starter with excellent timing. Zane also points out that Lucindo's wins over bigger names may be due to catching them at the right time, and Lemos is still a formidable athlete despite her age.

Odds: Lemos opened at -130, now +130; Lucindo opened at -110, now -140. Zane is surprised Lucindo is favored.
"I think this is actually a case where she is too young and raw for this fighter right now and she does not look like yeah, any of the fighters that have beat Amanda Lamos in the past several years."
LOSS vs Virna Jandiroba
Submission (armbar) R2 4:48 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 2 of 9 22% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:51
Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 8 25% 20 of 27 1 of 5 20% 4 1 6:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 1 of 1 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:26
Amanda Lemos 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 9 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:42
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 1 of 8 12% 2 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 7 28% 12 of 18 0 of 4 0% 2 1 2:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 2 of 9 22% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
Amanda Lemos 2 of 8 25% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
Amanda Lemos 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Virna Jandiroba 1 of 8 12% 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 2 of 7 28% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Angelo picks Virna Jandiroba because she will grind and get takedowns, neutralizing Amanda Lemos's striking. He notes that Lemos is the better mixed martial artist but cannot defend takedowns. He plans to wait for prop bets, especially the takedown line, and considers Jandiroba affordable at even money.

waiting for prop bets, especially takedown line
"I've got to pick Verna here this is definitely a steep test it'll be her first five round fight at first Main Event she is Affordable at even money"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Cody picks Jandiroba, emphasizing her freakish strength, takedown ability, and durability. He notes Lemos has cardio issues and has been taken down repeatedly by lesser grapplers. He expects Jandiroba to bank rounds with top control as Lemos fades, though he admits the fight likely goes to decision and could be a weird judging outcome. He suggests live betting Jandiroba after Lemos wins early rounds.

"I'm gonna chase the other side and go Verna."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Daniel Vreeland leans with Virna Jandiroba due to her world-class Jiu-Jitsu and unorthodox takedown entries, believing she can take down Amanda Lemos and possibly secure a submission early. He notes that Lemos has a significant power edge and could get a late knockout if Jandiroba gasses, but he trusts Jandiroba's early dominance. He also mentions that Lemos has shown vulnerability to submissions, referencing the standing arm triangle loss to Andrade.

"I'm GNA lean with Verna janida because I do think she's going to have that early um upside you know in terms of getting those takedowns in terms of those near submission attempts possibly getting a submission attempt and wearing …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Jandiroba is a -130 favorite. She has a smothering grappling style and excellent cardio, which should wear down Lemos in the later rounds. Lemos has power but questionable takedown defense and cardio. Jandiroba's chin has held up, and she can take Lemos down, take her back, and eventually find a submission in the third or fourth round. Lemos could finish early, but if she doesn't, Jandiroba will dominate.

submission
"I'm going to say jandi Roba by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Paul thinks Lemos is the better striker and can hang on the mat against Jandiroba, citing her durability in going five rounds with Zhang Weili and surviving takedowns from Mackenzie Dern. He acknowledges Jandiroba's grappling edge but believes Lemos can avoid submissions and win rounds with damage. He calls it close to a pick 'em fight but leans Lemos at plus money.

"I'm kind of tempted by Amanda Lemos in this spot... close to a pick 'em fight but give me Amanda Lemos at plus 110."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

The MMA Guru picks Virna Jandiroba after initially considering Lemos. He recalls Lemos' grappling being exposed by Zhang Weili, who had 16 minutes of control time. He notes Jandiroba has never been finished and had close fights with Amanda Ribas and Marina Rodriguez. He trusts the favorite Jandiroba despite not wanting her to succeed.

"I'll go jander Roba I'll Trust in a favorite here I'll go jandera"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 1 41 of 80 51% 47 of 86 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:02
Mackenzie Dern 0 21 of 54 38% 50 of 85 1 of 3 33% 0 2 6:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mackenzie Dern 0 8 of 22 36% 19 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:45
2 Amanda Lemos 1 24 of 51 47% 27 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:09
Mackenzie Dern 0 8 of 24 33% 11 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:30
3 Amanda Lemos 0 6 of 6 100% 9 of 9 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:53
Mackenzie Dern 0 5 of 8 62% 20 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 41 of 80 51% 26 of 62 8 of 10 7 of 8 24 of 56 1 of 2 16 of 22
Mackenzie Dern 21 of 54 38% 21 of 51 0 of 2 0 of 1 13 of 42 0 of 1 8 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 11 of 23 47% 4 of 15 3 of 4 4 of 4 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 8 of 22 36% 8 of 20 0 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 18 0 of 0 4 of 4
2 Amanda Lemos 24 of 51 47% 17 of 42 4 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 32 1 of 2 11 of 17
Mackenzie Dern 8 of 24 33% 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 1 8 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 1
3 Amanda Lemos 6 of 6 100% 5 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 5
Mackenzie Dern 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Angelo picks Amanda Lemos, citing her superior striking and takedown defense. He rants about Mackenzie Dern's poor wrestling and 14% takedown accuracy, despite her elite BJJ. He notes Lemos is coming off a bad loss but believes her takedown defense is more than enough to keep the fight standing. He calls the odds fantastic.

"Amanda lamos is going to be the pick I think the odds at minus 125 based on the rant I just went on are fantastic odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern as a dog but with very low confidence. He notes Dern's inconsistency, looking great against Angela Hill but terrible against Jessica Andrade. He thinks if Dern gets the fight to the ground, she can submit Lemos, who has been tapped before. He says he won't bet this fight and is staying far away, but as a pick he goes with Dern by submission.

Dern by submission
"I'm gonna take dur here as a dog as far as a pick goes I'll say she Subs lamos but I can't trust either of these Fighters"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Dern's durability and BJJ threat. He mentions that Lemos could get a knockout, but Dern has shown she can take bombs. He believes Dern only needs one takedown to close the show. He picks Dern moneyline without chasing props.

"I like d as well but yeah I I don't even think I'm going to chase a prop on this one cuz um I see both pass to Victory..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Daniel Vreeland does not make a clear pick, calling it a coin flip. He notes Lemos's power and leg kick potential but is concerned about her tendency to flop to her back, as seen against Zhang. He acknowledges Dern's elite BJJ but questions her wrestling and striking. He stays away from betting on this fight.

"I'm staying away from this one."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Daniel picks Amanda Lemos hard, despite being a fan of Mackenzie Dern's grappling style. He thinks Dern won't be able to get the fight to the ground due to Lemos' strength, good boxing, and takedown defense. He also cites Dern's short notice and Lemos' reach advantage. He believes Lemos should be a -200 favorite and is all in on her.

"we're going Lemos hard uh and and this is coming from maybe one of the preeminent uh McKenzie dur fans... I think LMO should be a negative 200 favorite here or better like negative 130 just not high enough I'm …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Jeff picks Amanda Lemos, calling it a good number. He notes that Dern struggles with her wrestling and striking, and doesn't look great on the feet. He points out that Lemos just fought for the belt and has a reach advantage. He thinks Lemos should be a -200 favorite or better, so -130 is a good price.

"lamos is is the pick good number on this fight as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Lemos is a dangerous power puncher who can keep Dern at bay. Dern is inconsistent and unable to complete takedowns. Expects Lemos to find a knockout in the second round.

"I expect her power to come through once again for her as she keeps D at Bay and eventually finds that knockout in the second round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Paul picks Dern, citing her superior Jiu-Jitsu and improved striking. He notes Lemos' low volume and 55% takedown defense, which could allow Dern to get the fight to the ground. He highlights Dern's durability and cardio, and believes she can outwork Lemos on the feet or submit her. He sees value at plus money.

"I got D yeah."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Lemos, calling her a dangerous power puncher and criticizing Mackenzie Dern's striking as nonexistent. He believes Lemos will have improved her grappling defense after being dominated by Zhang Weili. He predicts a brutal TKO stoppage in round one, stating Dern has never practiced striking for MMA.

"Amanda Lemos gets it done TKO... Dern has never practiced striking for MMA in her entire life."
LOSS vs Zhang Weili
Decision (unanimous) (50–43, 50–44, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 1 163 of 217 75% 296 of 358 6 of 7 85% 0 0 16:07
Amanda Lemos 0 24 of 63 38% 29 of 68 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 44 of 55 80% 74 of 90 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:33
Amanda Lemos 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Zhang Weili 0 16 of 20 80% 49 of 54 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:47
Amanda Lemos 0 4 of 10 40% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Zhang Weili 0 20 of 29 68% 31 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:58
Amanda Lemos 0 5 of 12 41% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
4 Zhang Weili 0 28 of 45 62% 28 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Amanda Lemos 0 13 of 37 35% 13 of 37 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:07
5 Zhang Weili 1 55 of 68 80% 114 of 129 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:05
Amanda Lemos 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 163 of 217 75% 106 of 150 37 of 42 20 of 25 50 of 77 17 of 18 96 of 122
Amanda Lemos 24 of 63 38% 19 of 57 3 of 4 2 of 2 23 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 44 of 55 80% 36 of 47 6 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0 41 of 52
Amanda Lemos 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Zhang Weili 16 of 20 80% 10 of 13 6 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 8 4 of 4 7 of 8
Amanda Lemos 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Zhang Weili 20 of 29 68% 11 of 19 5 of 6 4 of 4 8 of 14 8 of 9 4 of 6
Amanda Lemos 5 of 12 41% 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Zhang Weili 28 of 45 62% 7 of 17 9 of 12 12 of 16 26 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 13 of 37 35% 11 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Zhang Weili 55 of 68 80% 42 of 54 11 of 12 2 of 2 8 of 9 3 of 3 44 of 56
Amanda Lemos 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo is very confident in Zhang Weili, believing she is head and shoulders above the division. He notes her improved wrestling and jiu-jitsu, impressive volume and cardio, and power. While Amanda Lemos has knockout power and good takedown defense, he thinks Weili can win everywhere and will keep the belt. He has her in a parlay with Marlon Vera.

Parlay with Marlon Vera
"Wei Li Zhang is the pick one of the more confident picks and I have her in that parlay with Cheeto... I think she's going to get it done I think she's going to keep the belt."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by third-round knockout, acknowledging Lemos is dangerous early. He notes Lemos has power and can finish early, but her cardio fades after the first round. Zhang is improving and can wrestle, and Brady expects her to weather the early storm and take over in the later rounds.

win by KO, round 3
"I like Zhang Whaley here to win this fight I'll say third round knockout for Zhang Wei Lee"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Cody views Zhang as a complete fighter with high-level striking, wrestling, and cardio, while Lemos has not faced top competition and struggled against Angela Hill. He expects Zhang to dominate and likely win by decision, though he acknowledges women's MMA can be unpredictable. He leans towards the fight going the distance.

over 3.5 rounds at +170; fight time over 15.5 minutes
"I think the champion Zang Yale goes out and does what she does best and that's just dominate I mean she's pretty much I always calls uh I don't always call but some Fighters are just generalists like they're generally …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili, believing she is one of the best athletes in the UFC and has shown tremendous improvement, especially in grappling after training with Henry Cejudo. He notes that Lemos is dangerous early with heavy hands and a guillotine, but her cardio fades after round two due to weight cuts. Levi expects Zhang to take the fight to the ground and possibly finish via submission or ground and pound. He is confident but acknowledges that the early stand-up exchanges will be a sweat for backers at -330.

Zhang by submission or ground and pound; -330 price is high but Zhang should get it done
"I think Zhang Wally is going to get her to the ground and finish her via submission or grounding pound"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Lucrative James picks Amanda Lemos as a value underdog, believing she hits like a truck and has a good chance of knocking out Zhang Weili. He acknowledges Zhang has more ways to win and better cardio, but at plus 250 he sees it as an easy system play. He advises against being greedy and sticking to the moneyline.

moneyline at plus 250
"Amanda Lemos knocks out Wei Lee Jiang and she becomes the new strawweight champion"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Zhang is well-rounded with power striking and strong wrestling. Lemos fades late and has been submitted before. Zhang will mix in takedowns and wear on Lemos, eventually finding a finish in the later rounds. The inside distance prop and under 3.5/4.5 rounds are good options.

Zhang wins inside distance, under 3.5 rounds, under 4.5 rounds
"I'm going to take Wiley Zhang I think she wins this fight inside the distance I'm going to be targeting that specific prop in the spot as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili over Amanda Lemos. He notes Lemos' age (36) and past losses to Jessica Andrade and Angela Hill. He believes Zhang's athleticism, speed, power, and improved grappling will be too much. He cites Zhang's dominant grappling performances against Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Carla Esparza. He expects Zhang to win, possibly by submission or TKO.

"I'm going with Zhang Whaley over Amanda Lemos"
TKO (punches) R3 0:54 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Nov 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 19 of 52 36% 44 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Marina Rodriguez 0 29 of 53 54% 43 of 67 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 9 of 29 31% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 18 61% 11 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Amanda Lemos 0 4 of 15 26% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 8 of 16 50% 22 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:06
3 Amanda Lemos 0 6 of 8 75% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 19 of 52 36% 6 of 26 3 of 8 10 of 18 18 of 51 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marina Rodriguez 29 of 53 54% 16 of 36 10 of 13 3 of 4 25 of 48 3 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 9 of 29 31% 1 of 9 1 of 5 7 of 15 8 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 18 61% 4 of 9 4 of 6 3 of 3 10 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 4 of 15 26% 1 of 11 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 8 of 16 50% 4 of 10 4 of 5 0 of 1 5 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1
3 Amanda Lemos 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 10 of 19 52% 8 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Rodriguez, expecting her volume to be the difference. He notes she needs to avoid Lemos's power and stay technical, following the blueprint Angela Hill almost used. He acknowledges Lemos is dangerous with 7 stoppage wins and considers a no-action bet on Lemos by stoppage.

this may be a mandala most win inside the distance decision no choking decision no action bet if a Mandela most wins by submission or knockout I'll get paid if she loses a decision which is the most likely outcome I'll get a full refund
"I do have Marina winning I think it's sort of the volume that does it but she needs to avoid the power stay Technical and beat Amanda the same way that Angela hill almost did"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady cites Lemos's cardio concerns in a five-round fight, noting she has never gone past three rounds. He believes Rodriguez has improved takedown defense and better cardio, and will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts Rodriguez will finish a tired Lemos in the third or fourth round by knockout.

Rodriguez wins by knockout in round 4
"I like Rodriguez here to win I'm gonna take her to win by fourth round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Marina Rodriguez, citing her recent run as a viable title challenger, experience in five-round fights, and superior striking volume and power. He notes her takedown defense and ability to survive on the ground, as seen against MacKenzie Dern. He is not sold on Amanda Lemos, pointing to her age, lack of a big win, and close split decision against Angela Hill. He predicts Rodriguez wins by decision, but is not running to the book to bet at the current line.

Marina Rodriguez by decision
"I will take Marina Rodriguez Marina Rodriguez by decision but you know I'm not I'm not running to the book you say and take my money"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Daniel Levi leans Marina Rodriguez, citing her durability and ability to pull away in later rounds (third, fourth, fifth) as Lemos fades. He notes Rodriguez's slow starts and vulnerability to takedowns, as she struggles to get up from bottom, but believes her volume and cardio advantage will overcome Lemos's early power. He mentions the line (-210) is a bit wide and does not have a bet on this fight.

No bet; line considered wide
"I lean with Marina Rodriguez... I don't have a bet on this fight and I don't really have an interest in betting this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host believes Rodriguez's durability, cardio, and disciplined striking will overcome Lemos's early power. He notes Lemos fades after round one and telegraphs her shots, while Rodriguez has experience going five rounds. He predicts a late TKO (round 5) as Lemos fades, but also sees decision as likely.

Rodriguez round 5 TKO; round 4 or 5 decision
"give me Marina Rodriguez round five TKO I think glamos will be on fumes by that point"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Cody's points but struggles with the -220 price, which implies nearly 69% win probability. He thinks 7-3 Rodriguez is reasonable but not a betting opportunity. He does not like the decision prop because he questions Lemos's cardio in five rounds, noting she has been finished or finished early in previous five-round fights. He is considering the under on total rounds, possibly getting plus money, and will wait for weigh-ins to see if Lemos has a bad weight cut. He picks Rodriguez for the show but will not attack the -220 line.

under on total rounds (considering), Marina Rodriguez 120 significant strikes on PrizePicks (considering)
"Marina Rodriguez is the pick for the purposes of the show I'm not gonna be attacking the minus 220 though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez, noting Lemos's power has been absorbed by durable opponents like Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill. He believes Rodriguez's boxing, chin, and own power will surprise Lemos. He predicts a decision win (48-47 or 49-46) as Lemos may hesitate in a five-round fight, while Rodriguez's grappling defense is a concern but not an issue if it stays standing.

48-47 or 49-46 decision
"I'm going Marina Rodriguez here... I'll go 48 47 49 46 Marina Rodriguez but she loses the first round."
Michelle Waterson-Gomez - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gillian Robertson 0 21 of 52 40% 41 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 77 of 105 73% 122 of 156 2 of 6 33% 2 0 12:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gillian Robertson 0 11 of 37 29% 15 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 27 of 43 62% 36 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:23
2 Gillian Robertson 0 4 of 6 66% 13 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 27 of 31 87% 48 of 53 1 of 3 33% 1 0 4:49
3 Gillian Robertson 0 6 of 9 66% 13 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 23 of 31 74% 38 of 50 0 of 0 --- 1 0 4:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gillian Robertson 21 of 52 40% 19 of 48 1 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 37 3 of 4 9 of 11
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 77 of 105 73% 67 of 94 9 of 9 1 of 2 10 of 24 0 of 0 67 of 81
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gillian Robertson 11 of 37 29% 9 of 33 1 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 33 0 of 1 3 of 3
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 27 of 43 62% 23 of 39 3 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 19 0 of 0 19 of 24
2 Gillian Robertson 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 1
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 27 of 31 87% 22 of 26 5 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 26 of 30
3 Gillian Robertson 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 7
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 23 of 31 74% 22 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 22 of 27
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody picks Robertson, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and recent improvements. He notes that Waterson is 38 and on a losing streak, and that her takedown defense has declined. Cody believes Robertson will take Waterson down and control the fight on the ground, possibly winning by submission or decision. He also mentions that Robertson has been working on her cardio and game planning.

"Robertson at some point's gonna get it to the ground for two of the three rounds and either wins a decision or maybe latches onto the neck and subs her."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Daniel believes Robertson's path is to get takedowns and maul Waterson on the ground, either by submission or ground-and-pound TKO. He notes Robertson holds the record for most submissions in women's UFC history. He sees Waterson's only path being keeping it standing or hitting a sneaky submission, but thinks Robertson will eventually get her down.

wins by submission or TKO
"I'm gonna go with Julian Robertson here to come through and possibly finish the karate hottie Michelle Waterson."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

The host is confident Robertson will get a submission, citing her relentless grappling and ability to take the back. He notes Waterson-Gomez is on a four-fight losing streak and slowing down at 38. He expects Robertson to eventually secure a takedown and find a choke, recommending Robertson by submission as the best bet.

Robertson by submission
"Give me Jillian Robertson to get a submission over Michelle Waterson Gomez."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Paul picks Robertson, noting that Waterson is past her prime and has lost six of her last seven. He believes Robertson's grappling will be too much for Waterson, who has been submitted before. Paul also mentions that Robertson is younger and improving, while Waterson's best days are behind her.

"Give me the younger up-and-comer in Gillian Robertson who I see making improvements."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

The Guru picks Michelle Waterson-Gomez as an underdog over Gillian Robertson. He praises Waterson's takedown defense and striking, saying she is levels above Robertson on the feet. He doubts Robertson's ability to harm anyone standing. He expects Waterson to win by decision.

"I'm going to go with Michelle Waterson Gomez... Michelle Waterson shall win"
TKO (punches) R2 2:42 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 70 of 102 68% 90 of 130 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:03
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 13 of 32 40% 16 of 37 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 51 of 75 68% 67 of 99 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 10 of 20 50% 13 of 25 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:09
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 19 of 27 70% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 70 of 102 68% 47 of 70 22 of 30 1 of 2 12 of 23 53 of 73 5 of 6
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 13 of 32 40% 7 of 23 5 of 7 1 of 2 4 of 17 7 of 9 2 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 51 of 75 68% 38 of 56 13 of 19 0 of 0 6 of 13 45 of 62 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 10 of 20 50% 5 of 15 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 7 6 of 7 2 of 6
2 Marina Rodriguez 19 of 27 70% 9 of 14 9 of 11 1 of 2 6 of 10 8 of 11 5 of 6
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 3 of 12 25% 2 of 8 1 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo trusts Marina slightly more to push the action and keep her boxing in Michelle's face. He notes Michelle has more dynamic striking and experience but is inconsistent. He thinks the fight likely goes to decision and suggests betting over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds, potentially plus 3.5 on Michelle
"I trust Marina just to smidge more in this matchup to push the action keep her boxing in Michelle's face"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Marina Rodriguez confidently, expecting a decision win. He notes Rodriguez is the better striker with power, while Waterson-Gomez has zero power and relies on volume. He thinks the fight will stay standing and Rodriguez will do more damage. He mentions Waterson-Gomez could try takedowns but doubts she will. He calls the rematch unnecessary.

"give me a give me Rodriguez here to win this fight and win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Marina Rodriguez by decision, expecting a similar outcome to their first fight. He notes Rodriguez's size, output, and ability to stuff takedowns, while Waterson has declined and struggles to implement her grappling. He sees no significant improvements from Waterson and believes Rodriguez will outwork her again.

"I'm sure I'm using too many words on this fight at this point so let's just go ahead and call it a marina Rodriguez by decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Daniel is confident Rodriguez wins, citing her massive volume and reach advantage on the feet. He rewatched their first fight and saw Rodriguez dominate until getting taken down in round 4. He believes if Rodriguez avoids extended time on bottom, she will out-strike Waterson decisively. He notes Waterson's low output and age (37) as concerns, and thinks Rodriguez covers the -300 line.

considers laying -300 straight; mentions -3.5 point spread as an option
"I think Marina Rodriguez is going to double her up on strikes for at least two of the rounds and hold on for deer life in that one round that she does get taken down I think she covers this …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Lucrative James is confident Rodriguez will win, calling Waterson washed and not good on the ground. He thinks Rodriguez will piece her up and sees value at -300, estimating her true probability at 85%. He also considers betting the under or Rodriguez by KO, but is wary of recent losses on women's unders.

under 2.5 rounds +260 considered; Rodriguez KO considered
"Marina Rodriguez gonna beat her up... she's a clear favorite in this spot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host picks Rodriguez at minus 300, expecting a repeat of their first fight where Rodriguez battered Waterson-Gomez on the feet. He notes Waterson-Gomez's underrated BJJ but poor wrestling to get the fight down, and that Rodriguez's takedown defense and clinch work (knees, elbows) will keep it standing. He acknowledges both are on losing streaks but sees Rodriguez as the younger, more powerful striker who wins by decision.

"give me Rodriguez and I think she wins this fight by decision and a minus 300 but the line makes sense"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Rodriguez, but won't bet at -300. He likes Rodriguez's over 70.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks, noting she landed 78 in the first fight. He thinks Waterson's takedown threat is minimal and Rodriguez will out-strike her again.

Over 70.5 significant strikes for Rodriguez on PrizePicks.
"I like Rodriguez but you know me I'm never getting to a minus 300. the CF dog just tells me to pass... I'll take a little sprinkle on some of my prize picks entries on Rodriguez over uh 70.5 significant …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru confidently picks Marina Rodriguez, noting she already beat Michelle Waterson in their first fight, winning 4-1 on rounds. He criticizes Waterson's three-fight losing streak and questions the rematch. He defends Rodriguez's loss to Amanda Lemos as an early stoppage and praises her grappling awareness against Mackenzie Dern. He believes Rodriguez's striking and overall game are clearly superior.

"Rodriguez here... Marina Rodriguez is going to win she lost to Amanda Lemos by early stoppage it was an early stoppage 100..."
LOSS vs Luana Pinheiro
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luana Pinheiro 0 61 of 188 32% 70 of 199 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:01
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 44 of 122 36% 48 of 132 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luana Pinheiro 0 20 of 67 29% 20 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 15 of 43 34% 15 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Luana Pinheiro 0 19 of 62 30% 22 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 19 of 50 38% 20 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:47
3 Luana Pinheiro 0 22 of 59 37% 28 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:01
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 10 of 29 34% 13 of 34 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luana Pinheiro 61 of 188 32% 18 of 114 16 of 34 27 of 40 53 of 178 8 of 10 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 44 of 122 36% 16 of 79 15 of 21 13 of 22 38 of 109 6 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luana Pinheiro 20 of 67 29% 5 of 39 4 of 11 11 of 17 20 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 15 of 43 34% 5 of 29 4 of 6 6 of 8 14 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Luana Pinheiro 19 of 62 30% 9 of 43 4 of 7 6 of 12 18 of 59 1 of 3 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 19 of 50 38% 9 of 34 5 of 7 5 of 9 15 of 42 4 of 8 0 of 0
3 Luana Pinheiro 22 of 59 37% 4 of 32 8 of 16 10 of 11 15 of 52 7 of 7 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 10 of 29 34% 2 of 16 6 of 8 2 of 5 9 of 25 1 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Angelo picks Luana Pinheiro but with low confidence, citing age and career trajectory. He notes that Luana is a powerful striker with solid takedowns, but Michelle Waterson has veteran savvy and is the better overall striker. He is concerned about Luana coming off major knee surgery, which could affect her athleticism. He thinks Michelle is very live as an underdog.

"Luana should win right luana's got great wrestling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Big Brady picks Michelle Waterson-Gomez as an underdog, citing the massive step down in competition for Waterson. He notes that Pinheiro has a strong judo and early power but fades as the fight goes on. He believes Waterson's striking and experience will allow her to take over in later rounds. He is hesitant due to Waterson's age (37) but sees value.

"I will take Michelle Waterson Gomez to pull off the upset here and win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Cody picks Waterson as a value play. He thinks the fight is closer to 50-50 than the line suggests, so he sides with the plus money. He notes Pinheiro hasn't proven much and her DQ win over Randa Marcos was unimpressive. However, he doesn't love the pick and says he probably won't bet it. He acknowledges Waterson is at the end of her career.

"I'll side with what I think there's a value side in Michelle Crotty the karate hottie uh Waterson at plus 140 but don't love it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Waterson. He notes that Pinheiro is raw and that Waterson is a competent, tough, high-level fighter who knows how to win. Connor also mentions that Pinheiro's potential hasn't been realized yet.

"I guess I'll side with you and take Watterson here."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Jacob flips to Michelle Waterson after film study, noting that Luana's takedowns are almost all Judo headlock throws that work against lower-level opponents. He believes Michelle's experience and superior striking will allow her to stay out of the clinch and dominate. He also points out that Luana is coming off major knee surgery, which could be a factor.

"I flip completely I think Michelle Waterson can dominate this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Waterson-Gomez is a veteran with good movement, kicks, and underrated grappling. Pinheiro has power and a strong top game but questionable cardio and competition level. I think Waterson's experience and ability to stay at range will wear on Pinheiro's gas tank, leading to a decision win. However, I lack high confidence because Pinheiro could land effective damage early.

"I'm going to lean with the experience and the veteran Savvy of a girl like or a woman like Michelle Waterson Gomez and I think she wins this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

Paul picks Pinheiro but is hesitant. He notes Pinheiro is younger, stronger, and has better wrestling and power. He thinks Pinheiro can take Waterson down and win rounds. However, he acknowledges Waterson's experience and fan-friendly style could lead to a close split decision in Florida. Paul says this is a low-confidence pick and not a top play.

"I will take Pinero it is I'm gonna put it way down the list this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

The MMA Guru picks Michelle Waterson to win by 29-28 decision. He describes it as a 'snooze fest' where Waterson will use fight IQ to secure a takedown at the end of each round, stealing the rounds on the scorecards. He expects a close fight with little action, but Waterson's experience and late-round takedowns will be the difference.

"I'm gonna go with Michelle Waterson doing that"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Zane picks Waterson because she is a crafty veteran who can stay tight and technical, taking Pinheiro off her feet with takedowns. He notes that Pinheiro's game is raw and she doesn't have a great top game or method to get ground and pound. Zane also mentions that Waterson is tough to knock out and has good reactive shots.

"I'm definitely going to take Watterson with the toughness and the grappling to just find ways of not having to have a physical fight with Piniero on the feet."
LOSS vs Amanda Lemos
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 1:48 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 29 of 56 51% 35 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:08
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 20 of 35 57% 20 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 16 of 36 44% 22 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:53
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 13 of 23 56% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:05
2 Amanda Lemos 0 13 of 20 65% 13 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 29 of 56 51% 7 of 24 7 of 10 15 of 22 27 of 54 0 of 0 2 of 2
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 20 of 35 57% 11 of 23 3 of 5 6 of 7 20 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 16 of 36 44% 5 of 17 2 of 4 9 of 15 14 of 34 0 of 0 2 of 2
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 13 of 23 56% 6 of 13 1 of 3 6 of 7 13 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 13 of 20 65% 2 of 7 5 of 6 6 of 7 13 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 7 of 12 58% 5 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Angelo picks Amanda Lemos, citing her power, takedown defense, and volume. He believes Waterson's stick-and-move style won't be enough, as she failed against Marina Rodriguez. He suggests Lemos is safe for parlays.

suggests Lemos for parlays
"limos is the pick and she is honestly probably safe to throw into some parlays"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Big Brady picks Amanda Lemos to win by decision. He notes that Lemos is the biggest favorite on the card and should land the harder shots with higher volume. He expresses concern about Lemos's cardio, as she has slowed down in past fights, but thinks she can outwork Waterson over three rounds. He also mentions that if the fight is at flyweight, it favors Lemos even more. He does not recommend betting at -300 odds.

decision win; odds comment: minus 300 too high
"i like lamosh here um you know she's going to be laying the harder shots here i think she's going to have the higher volume as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Cody sees Waterson as a clear underdog value, noting she has never been knocked out and has gone the distance with elite competition. He points out that Lemos' wins are over lower-level opponents and that Waterson's mobility and conditioning will allow her to outpoint Lemos. He also mentions Waterson's recent shape from The Challenge and her plus 270 price.

Waterson by decision (plus 500), Waterson moneyline
"it's like the most clear like dogger pass i've seen in a while the water price tag waterson's never been knocked out"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Daniel Levi leans Amanda Lemos but is not confident due to the high price. He notes Lemos has power that can overcome Waterson's technique, but Waterson has opportunistic submissions and cardio advantages late. He sees Lemos winning early via impact, but considers it a dog-or-pass situation and won't lay the heavy chalk.

dog-or-pass; not laying the price
"i lean with amanda leimos but you know i'm not crazy about laying a price like that on her"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Paul argues that Lemos' competition has been weak and that Waterson has fought a higher level of opposition, including five-round fights. He notes Waterson's durability and ability to make fights close, and believes the fight will go to decision with Waterson winning a close one. He also mentions that Lemos' power is her only real threat, but Waterson's chin and cardio should hold up.

Waterson by decision, Waterson moneyline
"i think watterson wins by decision i just think that at plus 270 i think there's enough meat on the bone there anyway that i don't have to get tricky with it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Lemos over Michelle Waterson, emphasizing Lemos's power advantage. He notes Waterson's struggles against power punchers like Marina Rodriguez and her age (36) and accumulated damage. He predicts Lemos will hurt Waterson early and win the first two rounds, with Waterson possibly rallying in the third.

"i'm going to be going with amanda lemos over michelle waterson she's just got a bit of a power difference"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · May 08, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 125 of 282 44% 144 of 304 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 88 of 205 42% 100 of 222 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 21 of 51 41% 21 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 13 of 37 35% 14 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 27 of 63 42% 29 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 18 of 40 45% 21 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
3 Marina Rodriguez 0 38 of 78 48% 40 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
4 Marina Rodriguez 0 7 of 22 31% 22 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 14 of 24 58% 22 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:14
5 Marina Rodriguez 0 32 of 68 47% 32 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 22 of 61 36% 22 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 125 of 282 44% 60 of 188 28 of 41 37 of 53 106 of 256 19 of 26 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 88 of 205 42% 43 of 129 25 of 38 20 of 38 74 of 182 7 of 12 7 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 21 of 51 41% 9 of 31 4 of 8 8 of 12 17 of 46 4 of 5 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 13 of 37 35% 6 of 18 5 of 9 2 of 10 13 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marina Rodriguez 27 of 63 42% 12 of 39 6 of 8 9 of 16 20 of 53 7 of 10 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 18 of 40 45% 8 of 26 5 of 7 5 of 7 15 of 34 3 of 6 0 of 0
3 Marina Rodriguez 38 of 78 48% 25 of 59 7 of 10 6 of 9 31 of 68 7 of 10 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 21 of 43 48% 9 of 24 6 of 8 6 of 11 18 of 38 3 of 5 0 of 0
4 Marina Rodriguez 7 of 22 31% 1 of 15 1 of 1 5 of 6 7 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 14 of 24 58% 10 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 12 1 of 1 7 of 11
5 Marina Rodriguez 32 of 68 47% 13 of 44 10 of 14 9 of 10 31 of 67 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 22 of 61 36% 10 of 42 7 of 11 5 of 8 22 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady likes Rodriguez's striking advantage and size at flyweight, but is concerned about her poor takedown defense (59%). He notes Waterson will likely get takedowns but Rodriguez is dangerous off her back, landing elbows and strikes. Brady thinks the five-round fight favors Rodriguez, as she has more time to land damaging shots. He predicts a decision win for Rodriguez, but says the ground game scares him and he wants to see weigh-ins first. He might consider a parlay but is not fully confident.

Rodriguez by decision
"I'm going to take rodriguez to win i'm going to take her to win by decision minus 200 um i don't know i kind of i want to see weigh-ins first."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 7, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez but is not confident due to the high price tag of 9200 on DraftKings. He notes Rodriguez's size and reach advantage, and her ability to trap Waterson as the fight progresses. However, he acknowledges Waterson's path to victory through lateral movement and point fighting, and recommends hedging lineups evenly because the value on Waterson is tempting. He sees Rodriguez's win as likely but not a lock, and suggests it's okay to leave this fight out of some lineups.

Cody mentions DraftKings pricing: Rodriguez at 9200, Waterson at 7000. He recommends a 3-4 out of 10 hedge weight on Rodriguez, keeping lineups even. He also notes a possible late finish for Rodriguez via referee stoppage due to damage.
"I still don't like the price tag at 9 200 but i am picking rodriguez to win this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Daniel Levi picks Marina Rodriguez, citing her one-punch knockout power and superior striking. He acknowledges Michelle Waterson's judo throws and takedown ability but believes Rodriguez will win most stand-up exchanges. He worries about Rodriguez's takedown defense and get-up game, but thinks she can avoid being taken down for three rounds. He expects Rodriguez to piece Waterson up and win a decision or late finish.

"i think that marina rodriguez she's fantastic it's just can can we like work on our wrestling this much like like why"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

The host picks Michelle Waterson as a live underdog, citing her underrated wrestling, jiu-jitsu, and cardio. He believes she can avoid Rodriguez's power early and then take over with takedowns and submissions in later rounds. He likes Waterson by submission and under 4.5 rounds props.

Waterson by submission +800, under 4.5 rounds +185
"i'm taking watterson in the spot and i think she'll snatch up that submission in the third or fourth round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 3, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

The MMA Guru picks Michelle Waterson over Marina Rodriguez, citing Rodriguez's tendency to gas out in three-round fights and her lack of five-round experience. He notes Waterson has five-round experience and will use her kicks to stay at range, winning rounds three through five. He also mentions Rodriguez is taking the fight on short notice and cutting weight, which favors Waterson.

unanimous decision, 48-47
"i'm picking michelle waterson to win this one unanimous decision based on the third fourth and fifth round"
WIN vs Angela Hill
Decision (split) (47–48, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · Sep 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 128 of 324 39% 162 of 361 1 of 18 5% 0 0 4:03
Angela Hill 0 131 of 261 50% 146 of 278 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 21 of 57 36% 27 of 63 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:15
Angela Hill 0 26 of 56 46% 30 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
2 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 31 of 78 39% 33 of 80 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:03
Angela Hill 0 33 of 62 53% 35 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
3 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 13 of 34 38% 36 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:30
Angela Hill 0 11 of 22 50% 18 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 26 of 58 44% 29 of 61 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:15
Angela Hill 0 22 of 46 47% 24 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
5 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 37 of 97 38% 37 of 97 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Angela Hill 0 39 of 75 52% 39 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 128 of 324 39% 65 of 234 40 of 59 23 of 31 110 of 300 13 of 17 5 of 7
Angela Hill 131 of 261 50% 82 of 194 45 of 63 4 of 4 105 of 231 25 of 29 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 21 of 57 36% 7 of 39 5 of 6 9 of 12 18 of 53 3 of 4 0 of 0
Angela Hill 26 of 56 46% 14 of 44 11 of 11 1 of 1 20 of 49 6 of 7 0 of 0
2 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 31 of 78 39% 16 of 56 9 of 16 6 of 6 25 of 72 6 of 6 0 of 0
Angela Hill 33 of 62 53% 20 of 47 12 of 14 1 of 1 28 of 56 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 13 of 34 38% 9 of 30 3 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 27 0 of 0 5 of 7
Angela Hill 11 of 22 50% 9 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 1
4 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 26 of 58 44% 14 of 40 9 of 12 3 of 6 24 of 54 2 of 4 0 of 0
Angela Hill 22 of 46 47% 13 of 32 8 of 13 1 of 1 18 of 41 4 of 5 0 of 0
5 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 37 of 97 38% 19 of 69 14 of 22 4 of 6 35 of 94 2 of 3 0 of 0
Angela Hill 39 of 75 52% 26 of 52 12 of 22 1 of 1 29 of 64 10 of 11 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michelle Waterson vs. Angela Hill

Round 1
On short notice, “The Karate Hottie” Waterson (17-8, 5-4 UFC) and “Overkill” Hill (12-8, 7-8 UFC) have elected to throw down for five full rounds at strawweight instead of the customary three for a short-notice headliner replacement bout. These two strikers both measuring at five-foot-three are ready for action, and referee Marc Goddard may have his hands full keeping up with this marquee matchup. They touch gloves, and Waterson backs off to open with a kick. It is well off the mark, as is the one that follows. Hill crowds her with a right hand that gets blocked, and she swings a few more but the strikes are ducked by Waterson. “The Karate Hottie” changes levels low for a takedown, and Hill stuffs it with relative ease. Hill clips her with a few punches, and she grabs a leg and thinks about tossing Waterson down but instead elects to crack Waterson on the jaw with an overhand right. Waterson kicks the lead leg and Hill comes back with a big left hand. Waterson clinches up to try to change levels, but opts for a body lock and bails on that too to elbow Hill on the chin. Hill comes out firing, and a few of her strikes bring out a smile from Waterson. Hill clicks a right hand off the dome, and her front kick pushes Waterson back from getting off a left hook. Another right finds its home on Waterson’s face, and she paws at the spot out of concern there was some early damage. There is some swelling on the right side of Waterson’s face already, and Hill continues to target that spot with left hands. Waterson circles out and lands on Hill, but Hill gives her one back. “The Karate Hottie” sells out for a takedown from a distance, but like before, Hill stands her up. Hill turns her against the fence, where she lands a few short punches before allowing a separation. A right hand from Hill has done additional damage to Waterson’s forehead, with a hematoma forming by Waterson’s temple. Waterson lands a hard kick, and she transitions into a takedown but is greeted with a knee up the middle. Hill stings her with a left hand to make Waterson bounce off the fence, and she presses in to grind Waterson on the cage wall. Hill knees her in the midsection a few times until they separate, and Hill lands a teep kick to the body. One last kick from Hill ends the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill

Round 2
The second frame begins with Waterson using some of her karate, in the form of several kicks high and low followed by a right hand that gets Hill’s attention. Hill fires back, but she takes a body kick on the way in. Waterson keeps her backed off for a time with jabs, but Hill bites down on her mouthpiece and slings a right and left hook. Hill times a counter from kick, and she kicks the body two times to decent effect. Waterson tries to swing an overhand left, but Hill stops her in her tracks twice with stiff jabs. Waterson kicks up high to make an advancing Hill readjust, and Hill eats a right hand and misses on her own counter. A high kick and subsequent body kick from Hill get blocked, and the two land jabs at the same time. Waterson gets off a right hand, but Hill hurts her with a fierce right hand that buckles the knees for a moment. Hill does not attack in a blitz, and instead uses her power jab to snap Waterson’s head back. Waterson telegraphs a takedown but uses it to try to score a right hand, but Hill sees it coming and gets her guard up in time. Waterson throws a torrent of punches that each get blocked, but she gets off a leg kick that punctuates the combination. Waterson tries to grab her leg and take her down, but Hill stops it and turns her about before pushing away. Two hard punches from Waterson land, and Hill returns fire with a huge right hand. Waterson targets the body with a pair of kicks, and Hill cracks her with a left hook that backs Waterson away. “The Karate Hottie” blitzes forward with another stream of punches that do not succeed, and Hill stops the advancement with counters. Hill lets fly an elbow when they clinch up for a moment, and Hill tries to spin but Waterson pushes her away. An axe kick that misses from Waterson is the final strike throw in the second round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill

Round 3
Patiently walking towards one another, they start off the round with jabs. Hill gets one in and dances out of the way when Waterson tries to respond in kind. Hill catches her on the way in, and she lands another strike that makes Waterson backpedal. Hill follows with a head kick, but Waterson blocks it without issue. Waterson flings up her own kick, but she cannot connect with it. A big jab from Hill has busted up Waterson’s nose, and she comes out swinging. Hill steps up with a big knee up the middle, and Waterson’s eyes light up as she grabs it and bullies Hill down to the ground. Hill looks disgusted with herself for giving it up, as Waterson is in half guard and gets off a few punches. Hill ties up the arm to keep Waterson from doing much, and the blood is starting to pool from Waterson’s nose on the canvas. Waterson is not concerned as she tries to advance position, all while Hill drags her way to the cage. “The Karate Hottie” has her leg trapped so she cannot pass guard, and she is unable to posture up as Hill has her locked down. This forces Goddard to ask the fighters to work, so Waterson tries to get up and pass, but this allows Hill to get back up. Waterson uses the opportunity to take Hill’s back, and after a wild scramble, Waterson returns back to being on top in half guard. “The Karate Hottie” does not land much in the way of strikes, and is racking up control time while Hill tries and fails to kick her off. Hill flails with her legs and connects on Waterson’s chin with an upkick while Waterson is on her knee, and Goddard intervenes to check on Waterson. The clock does not stop, and instead the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Waterson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Waterson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Waterson

Round 4
Hill begins with a leg kick, and she dodges a barrage of punches that speed past her head. When Hill over-extends with a few punches, Waterson tries to take the fight down. Hill lands a few punches, and Waterson throws right back at her before going after another takedown. Hill stuffs it and pushes “The Karate Hottie” back to the cage, where she lifts up a few knees before they separate. Hill ducks down with a left straight to the body, and she is out just out of range when Waterson throws a front kick to her midsection. They clash together and start swinging, and Hill’s punches appear to be coming at a slower velocity. Waterson kicks and counters the advancing Hill, and she connects with a left hand on the break. Waterson connects with an elbow on the inside as they crash together like waves in the ocean, and Hill rushes in to try to unload power punches but they do not find their mark. A big overhand right from Waterson collides with Hill’s cheek, and Hill tries to kick her away. Waterson kicks high and low, and when Hill counters, Waterson pursues a takedown. Hill stuffs it, so Waterson re-commits to it and cannot land this one either. Hill manages to keep her balance as she uses the fence to her advantage, although a knee on the break is too slow to reach the chin. Waterson jabs several times as Hill plods forward, and a solid side kick lands square on the midsection. Waterson flips up a head kick, and Hill eats it without giving anything back. Hill gets kicked on the chest by another side kick while coming forward, and as Waterson backs away, she surprises Hill with an axe kick. Hill continues to walk towards her opponent and presses her to the fence. Waterson manages to not only get a separation, but one last side kick finds its home as Hill charges at her when the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Waterson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Waterson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Waterson

Round 5
Waterson lets out a shriek of joy as she starts out the round fired up, and two jabs are followed by a head kick. Hill walks through them, and Waterson keeps kicking up top. Hill tries to advance but gets pushed away with a high kick, and she stuffs the takedown that comes right after. Waterson utilizes another side kick to the torso, and Hill cannot block it. Hill sticks out a jab and just moves her head out of the way from a front kick. Hill lets fly a high kick of her own to catch Waterson off-guard. “The Karate Hottie” is now in full karate mode, with a spinning kick coming up short and several that make Hill think twice about walking forward. Hill tries to give her one high kick back but it is also shy of the mark, and two strikes from Waterson similarly hit nothing but air. Hill rushes in and swings, but Waterson ducks down to avoid the brunt of the strikes as she kicks Hill to the body. Hill lands a right hand, and Waterson comes back with several more ending with a body kick. Hill tries to clinch her up and land an elbow, but it just bounces off Waterson’s hair. The two both exchange at the same time, and Hill walks forward with a big right hand only to find Waterson waiting there to take her down. Hill stuffs it so Waterson lands a side kick. They both land jabs at the same time, and Hill stabs her toes on Waterson’s body. Hill strings together a few punches, and when Waterson comes back, Hill clips her with a left hand. Hill walks in and gets side kicked away, but she clamps down on her gumshield and cracks Waterson with a right hand. The kiais from Waterson are loud as she swings with everything she has left, and the two kick high and low in a frenzy. They initiate a clinch, and Hill empties her gas tank with knees and elbows that sting Waterson. Waterson gives it right back, and the two trade right until the bell. What a fight! The scorecards could be close on this one, but it most certainly did not disappoint. With this thriller in the books, we will see you next week for a huge fight night card with 14 fights booked at the moment.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill (48-47 Hill)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Waterson (48-47 Waterson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Waterson (48-47 Waterson)

The Official Result
Michelle Waterson def. Angela Hill via Split Decision (47-48, 49-46, 48-47)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Big Brady picks Angela Hill, citing that she is on the rise while Waterson is trending down. He believes Hill has a significant advantage on the feet and has shown improvements in her ground game, which is Waterson's path to victory. He notes that Waterson is tough and has never been finished by strikes, but expects Hill to win by decision due to volume striking.

If the line gets closer to a pick'em, I'll definitely take a shot at Hill
"I'm gonna go with hill here and because i think that on the feet it's not even close"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 11, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

The host believes Waterson is the better fighter overall, with superior jiu-jitsu and experience in five-round fights. He expects her to mix in takedowns and eventually secure a submission in the later rounds. However, he is concerned about her recent performance against Carla Esparza and wants a better price than +105. He likes the submission prop at +540.

Waterson by submission (+540); fourth round submission
"I'm gonna go with michelle waterson here i'm i think that she will be successful in getting this fight to the ground"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Angela Hill

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill dominantly, criticizing Michelle Waterson for not throwing strikes with intent and calling her 'mom champ' annoying. He believes Hill is really good despite her record and should be a massive favorite. He expects Hill to chew up Waterson's legs, win every round, and possibly get a submission in the later rounds, predicting a third-round finish or unanimous decision.

Third round finish
"i'm gonna go with angela hill getting it done dominantly um i think she wins pretty much every round"
LOSS vs Carla Esparza
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 45 of 103 43% 48 of 106 1 of 10 10% 0 0 0:46
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 44 of 98 44% 44 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 5 of 18 27% 7 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:35
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carla Esparza 0 15 of 31 48% 16 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 13 of 26 50% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carla Esparza 0 25 of 54 46% 25 of 54 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:11
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 22 of 44 50% 22 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 45 of 103 43% 34 of 88 6 of 8 5 of 7 39 of 94 5 of 8 1 of 1
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 44 of 98 44% 15 of 60 13 of 16 16 of 22 39 of 92 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 5 of 18 27% 3 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 9 of 28 32% 4 of 18 2 of 3 3 of 7 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carla Esparza 15 of 31 48% 13 of 28 1 of 1 1 of 2 14 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 13 of 26 50% 3 of 15 4 of 4 6 of 7 10 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Carla Esparza 25 of 54 46% 18 of 46 4 of 5 3 of 3 21 of 47 4 of 7 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 22 of 44 50% 8 of 27 7 of 9 7 of 8 20 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Big Brady picks Carla Esparza, expecting her to secure takedowns and control Waterson, swaying judges in close rounds. He notes Esparza's improving striking but gives Waterson the edge on the feet. He predicts a very close decision win for Esparza.

"I like Asparza here just for the fact that I think she can go out here and get takedowns in a close fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Daniel Levi leans towards Michelle Waterson, believing the fight should be a pick'em and thus taking the underdog. He notes Waterson's underrated wrestling, sidekicks, and head-and-arm throw, and thinks she can frustrate Esparza on the outside. Levi acknowledges Esparza's improved boxing but sees Waterson as having more tricks and being undervalued.

"I'm gonna go with the underdog here man i'ma go at karate hottie I think that she's got more tricks up her sleeve"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Matt leans Esparza, believing she can get takedowns at will and grind out a decision. He notes her improving striking and submission defense, but worries about Waterson's submissions off her back. He considers Esparza a potential lock but is not pulling the trigger at -164, preferring to wait for better spots.

Carla Esparza by decision
"I'm still leaning Carlos far as a here I'm gonna say caller does eventually grind her out"
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · Oct 12, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 180 of 300 60% 226 of 347 3 of 5 60% 1 0 5:34
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 58 of 160 36% 71 of 174 1 of 9 11% 1 0 4:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 31 of 39 79% 52 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:13
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 11 of 26 42% 17 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:14
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 34 of 64 53% 43 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 15 of 38 39% 19 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:01
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 36 of 56 64% 36 of 56 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:37
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 7 of 29 24% 8 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:57
4 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 46 of 78 58% 50 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:18
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 12 of 38 31% 14 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
5 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 33 of 63 52% 45 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 13 of 29 44% 13 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 180 of 300 60% 48 of 136 54 of 74 78 of 90 132 of 246 48 of 54 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 58 of 160 36% 25 of 84 12 of 40 21 of 36 44 of 141 14 of 19 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 31 of 39 79% 8 of 13 17 of 19 6 of 7 11 of 16 20 of 23 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 11 of 26 42% 7 of 18 3 of 5 1 of 3 3 of 16 8 of 10 0 of 0
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 34 of 64 53% 4 of 25 9 of 14 21 of 25 26 of 55 8 of 9 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 15 of 38 39% 7 of 22 3 of 7 5 of 9 12 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 36 of 56 64% 7 of 20 9 of 13 20 of 23 35 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 7 of 29 24% 2 of 13 2 of 8 3 of 8 7 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 46 of 78 58% 15 of 41 10 of 14 21 of 23 33 of 64 13 of 14 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 12 of 38 31% 5 of 16 4 of 17 3 of 5 10 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 33 of 63 52% 14 of 37 9 of 14 10 of 12 27 of 56 6 of 7 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 13 of 29 44% 4 of 15 0 of 3 9 of 11 12 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Angelo picks Amanda Lemos, citing her power, takedown defense, and volume. He believes Waterson's stick-and-move style won't be enough, as she failed against Marina Rodriguez. He suggests Lemos is safe for parlays.

suggests Lemos for parlays
"limos is the pick and she is honestly probably safe to throw into some parlays"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Big Brady picks Amanda Lemos to win by decision. He notes that Lemos is the biggest favorite on the card and should land the harder shots with higher volume. He expresses concern about Lemos's cardio, as she has slowed down in past fights, but thinks she can outwork Waterson over three rounds. He also mentions that if the fight is at flyweight, it favors Lemos even more. He does not recommend betting at -300 odds.

decision win; odds comment: minus 300 too high
"i like lamosh here um you know she's going to be laying the harder shots here i think she's going to have the higher volume as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Cody sees Waterson as a clear underdog value, noting she has never been knocked out and has gone the distance with elite competition. He points out that Lemos' wins are over lower-level opponents and that Waterson's mobility and conditioning will allow her to outpoint Lemos. He also mentions Waterson's recent shape from The Challenge and her plus 270 price.

Waterson by decision (plus 500), Waterson moneyline
"it's like the most clear like dogger pass i've seen in a while the water price tag waterson's never been knocked out"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Daniel Levi leans Amanda Lemos but is not confident due to the high price. He notes Lemos has power that can overcome Waterson's technique, but Waterson has opportunistic submissions and cardio advantages late. He sees Lemos winning early via impact, but considers it a dog-or-pass situation and won't lay the heavy chalk.

dog-or-pass; not laying the price
"i lean with amanda leimos but you know i'm not crazy about laying a price like that on her"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Paul argues that Lemos' competition has been weak and that Waterson has fought a higher level of opposition, including five-round fights. He notes Waterson's durability and ability to make fights close, and believes the fight will go to decision with Waterson winning a close one. He also mentions that Lemos' power is her only real threat, but Waterson's chin and cardio should hold up.

Waterson by decision, Waterson moneyline
"i think watterson wins by decision i just think that at plus 270 i think there's enough meat on the bone there anyway that i don't have to get tricky with it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Lemos over Michelle Waterson, emphasizing Lemos's power advantage. He notes Waterson's struggles against power punchers like Marina Rodriguez and her age (36) and accumulated damage. He predicts Lemos will hurt Waterson early and win the first two rounds, with Waterson possibly rallying in the third.

"i'm going to be going with amanda lemos over michelle waterson she's just got a bit of a power difference"