Career Averages - Lauren Murphy
Career Averages - Miesha Tate
Lauren Murphy
Miesha Tate
Lauren Murphy - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 38 of 145 | 26% | 67 of 179 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Eduarda Moura | 0 | 64 of 235 | 27% | 74 of 248 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 6 of 33 | 18% | 13 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Eduarda Moura | 0 | 19 of 58 | 32% | 26 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 11 of 51 | 21% | 27 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Eduarda Moura | 0 | 20 of 77 | 25% | 22 of 79 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 21 of 61 | 34% | 27 of 68 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 2 | 0 | 0:59 |
| Eduarda Moura | 0 | 25 of 100 | 25% | 26 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 38 of 145 | 26% | 38 of 144 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 34 of 140 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Eduarda Moura | 64 of 235 | 27% | 52 of 221 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 12 | 64 of 234 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 6 of 33 | 18% | 6 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Eduarda Moura | 19 of 58 | 32% | 14 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 19 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 11 of 51 | 21% | 11 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Eduarda Moura | 20 of 77 | 25% | 17 of 74 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 77 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 21 of 61 | 34% | 21 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Eduarda Moura | 25 of 100 | 25% | 21 of 96 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 100 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes Eduarda Moura is younger, faster, and a better grappler than the 41-year-old Lauren Murphy, who hasn't fought in two years. He thinks Murphy's toughness won't be enough against Moura's aggressive grappling and solid takedowns. He hates the -600 odds but thinks Moura wins 95% of the time and is okay to parlay.
Big Brady is disgusted by the -600 line on Eduarda Moura. He notes Moura's poor cardio and low volume, and Lauren Murphy's 70% takedown defense. However, he picks Moura by decision because Murphy is 41, hasn't fought in 2.5 years, and this is her retirement fight. He is not confident in the line.
The host is hesitant about this pick, noting that he doesn't understand why Moura is such a heavy favorite. He acknowledges Moura's grappling strength but also points out that Murphy has a physicality and striking advantage and could make the fight close. Ultimately, he expects Moura to win bits and pieces of the fight and get her hand raised on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Eduarda Moura, citing her better grappling entries and fight IQ in knowing when to shoot for takedowns. He heavily criticizes Lauren Murphy's last performance against Jessica Andrade, where she took a record amount of damage and had no answer. He notes Murphy's long layoff and age, and expects Moura to outwrestle and outstrike her for a 30-27 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 100 of 293 | 34% | 103 of 296 | 0 of 15 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 231 of 369 | 62% | 237 of 375 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 22 of 91 | 24% | 24 of 93 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 61 of 107 | 57% | 62 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 29 of 95 | 30% | 29 of 95 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 75 of 121 | 61% | 78 of 124 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 49 of 107 | 45% | 50 of 108 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 95 of 141 | 67% | 97 of 143 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 100 of 293 | 34% | 81 of 268 | 14 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 90 of 276 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Lauren Murphy | 231 of 369 | 62% | 161 of 292 | 23 of 27 | 47 of 50 | 208 of 338 | 22 of 30 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 22 of 91 | 24% | 17 of 85 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 22 of 90 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lauren Murphy | 61 of 107 | 57% | 31 of 75 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 29 | 58 of 101 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 29 of 95 | 30% | 21 of 83 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 86 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Lauren Murphy | 75 of 121 | 61% | 52 of 96 | 12 of 13 | 11 of 12 | 62 of 103 | 12 of 17 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 49 of 107 | 45% | 43 of 100 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 100 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Lauren Murphy | 95 of 141 | 67% | 78 of 121 | 8 of 11 | 9 of 9 | 88 of 134 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Andrade with good confidence, noting she has only lost to the best (Valentina, Rose, Zhang, Weili). He is not high on Murphy, calling her lucky and noting she has lost fights that went her way. Andrade is younger, more powerful, has takedown upside, and will pressure with volume. He respects Murphy's toughness and durability, predicting a decision win for Andrade, but won't lay -450.
Cody picks Jéssica Andrade confidently, expecting her to smash Lauren Murphy. He notes Andrade's power, aggression, strength, and well-rounded skills. He says Murphy is scrappy but not on Andrade's level, and that Andrade will either finish via guillotine or win a brawl. He warns about women's MMA and big favorites, but thinks Andrade's skill advantage is clear. He also mentions Andrade's cardio is not half bad.
Connor picks Andrade, noting that Murphy is glacially slow and Andrade is much faster and harder hitting. He thinks Andrade's physicality will be too much, even if she can't overpower Murphy in the clinch. Connor also points out that good athletes can take Murphy down, and Andrade is a good athlete.
Paul picks Jéssica Andrade but with some hesitation. He notes Andrade's power, aggression, and strength, and says Murphy's best version still struggles with Andrade's worst. He mentions Murphy's durability and cardio but thinks Andrade's skill set is superior. He warns about women's MMA and big favorites, and says there is a world where Andrade gets tired. He thinks Andrade wins but wouldn't put a huge bet on her.
The Guru confidently picks Andrade, saying she 'throws punches like a man' and has finished top competition like Chookagian, Calvillo, and Lemos in the first round. He criticizes Murphy's fighting ability, calling her 'fighting blind.' Despite Murphy doing better against Shevchenko on paper, the Guru sees a clear difference in performance and predicts Andrade will KO Murphy.
Zane picks Andrade but with hesitation. He notes Andrade has made wrong moves lately, regressing to a cautious style, but her physicality, speed, and power should be enough against the slower Murphy. Zane worries about Andrade's approach and Murphy's strength and durability, but believes Andrade is more likely to finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 102 of 184 | 55% | 128 of 211 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 85 of 164 | 51% | 121 of 201 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 26 of 48 | 54% | 35 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 38 of 60 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 38 of 66 | 57% | 53 of 82 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 32 of 55 | 58% | 46 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 38 of 70 | 54% | 40 of 72 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 28 of 62 | 45% | 37 of 72 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 102 of 184 | 55% | 77 of 154 | 24 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 68 of 142 | 31 of 39 | 3 of 3 |
| Miesha Tate | 85 of 164 | 51% | 61 of 122 | 18 of 34 | 6 of 8 | 67 of 138 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 26 of 48 | 54% | 17 of 37 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 33 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 25 of 47 | 53% | 12 of 26 | 10 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 34 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 38 of 66 | 57% | 31 of 57 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 52 | 9 of 11 | 3 of 3 |
| Miesha Tate | 32 of 55 | 58% | 27 of 44 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 25 of 46 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 38 of 70 | 54% | 29 of 60 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 57 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 28 of 62 | 45% | 22 of 52 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 26 of 58 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Miesha Tate but is hesitant due to her flyweight debut. He believes Tate's wrestling and grappling will be key, and that she can avoid being bullied by Murphy. He notes Murphy's losses came via grappling dominance, and assumes Tate will be strong at 125. He is unsure about betting.
Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by decision. He notes that Tate is the more skilled fighter overall and can get takedowns to control the fight on the mat. He is not impressed by Murphy's wins and thinks the striking will be competitive. He says he would not bet Tate at -220 odds but picks her to win.
Cody picks Tate, citing her wrestling advantage, strength, and experience. He notes that Tate has been preparing for this fight for a long time and has been in great shape. He believes Tate's clinch work and takedowns will be too much for Murphy, and that Murphy's only path is to bully Tate, which he doubts she can do.
Daniel Levi leans Miesha Tate but expresses disinterest in the fight. He notes Tate is past her prime and coming off a loss, while Murphy is coming off a title fight loss and has health issues. He considers it a dog-or-pass situation and won't lay the -220 price on Tate.
Paul leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing the uncertainty of Tate's weight cut to 125 and the fact that Murphy is a natural 125er. He notes that Murphy has decent striking and could potentially outwork Tate. However, he admits he is not confident and will wait until weigh-ins before betting.
The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Lauren Murphy, criticizing Murphy's lack of skill and Tate's experience. He believes Tate will win grappling exchanges and has slightly better striking. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Tate, with Tate winning the first two rounds clearly before slowing down due to weight cut.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 98 of 170 | 57% | 132 of 204 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:04 |
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 11 of 91 | 12% | 19 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 24 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 3 of 24 | 12% | 3 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 30 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 1 of 18 | 5% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 | |
| 3 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 21 of 48 | 43% | 25 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 5 of 30 | 16% | 6 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 47 of 66 | 71% | 53 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 2 of 19 | 10% | 2 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 98 of 170 | 57% | 62 of 126 | 19 of 24 | 17 of 20 | 72 of 137 | 6 of 8 | 20 of 25 |
| Lauren Murphy | 11 of 91 | 12% | 4 of 73 | 3 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 20 of 39 | 51% | 9 of 24 | 5 of 7 | 6 of 8 | 19 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lauren Murphy | 3 of 24 | 12% | 2 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 10 of 17 | 58% | 6 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Lauren Murphy | 1 of 18 | 5% | 1 of 15 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Valentina Shevchenko | 21 of 48 | 43% | 9 of 33 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 20 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lauren Murphy | 5 of 30 | 16% | 0 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Valentina Shevchenko | 47 of 66 | 71% | 38 of 56 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 38 | 4 of 6 | 18 of 22 |
| Lauren Murphy | 2 of 19 | 10% | 1 of 14 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Shevchenko, calling her one of the best fighters ever. He highlights her technical striking, grappling, and championship composure. He notes that Murphy's path to victory is narrow and that Shevchenko can win anywhere. Angelo expects a dominant performance.
Big Brady picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by fourth-round TKO. He believes Shevchenko has every advantage: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes Murphy is tough and has never been finished, but she has never faced anyone near Shevchenko's caliber. He expects Shevchenko to find a finish late in the fight.
Cody is confident Shevchenko wins anywhere the fight goes, citing her superior kickboxing, speed, footwork, and grappling. He notes Murphy's durability and never being knocked out, but believes Shevchenko's patience and skill will lead to a late stoppage, possibly becoming the first to finish Murphy. He leans over 2.5 rounds due to Murphy's toughness.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Valentina Shevchenko, stating that Lauren Murphy's toughness and durability are not enough to overcome the massive skill gap. He notes that Murphy has never been finished, but Shevchenko's technique is superior. Levi believes it would take a fluke for Murphy to win, and he expects Shevchenko to win, though he is unsure whether it will be by decision or finish.
Jacob picks Shevchenko, noting she's running out of opponents and should fight Nunes again. He praises her judo and grappling. Jacob is confident Shevchenko wins easily.
The host picks Valentina Shevchenko by fourth-round TKO. He believes Shevchenko will eventually set up the crucifix position and finish Murphy. He notes that Murphy is durable and may survive early, but Shevchenko's pressure will increase. He likes the over 2.5 rounds at even money. He thinks Murphy's takedown success will be temporary and Shevchenko will adapt.
Paul picks Shevchenko confidently, noting her dominance and the large talent gap. He mentions she could finish inside the distance but also acknowledges she can be patient. He is unsure about betting the moneyline due to the price and considers the over 2.5 rounds, but has no bet yet.
The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko over Lauren Murphy, citing Shevchenko's vast superiority in all areas. He notes that Murphy is on a five-fight winning streak but lost her last two fights (split decisions) and is 38 years old. He expects Shevchenko to win by second-round crucifix TKO, similar to her fight against Andrade, as Murphy will likely shoot for a takedown and get reversed. He dismisses Murphy's chances entirely.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 80 of 148 | 54% | 121 of 195 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 4:54 |
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 123 of 228 | 53% | 153 of 259 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 29 of 57 | 50% | 40 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 55 of 97 | 56% | 64 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 43 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:15 |
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 26 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 35 of 69 | 50% | 38 of 72 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joanne Wood | 0 | 59 of 114 | 51% | 63 of 118 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 80 of 148 | 54% | 66 of 131 | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 55 of 119 | 10 of 13 | 15 of 16 |
| Joanne Wood | 123 of 228 | 53% | 62 of 137 | 30 of 41 | 31 of 50 | 99 of 201 | 23 of 25 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 29 of 57 | 50% | 25 of 51 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 52 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Joanne Wood | 55 of 97 | 56% | 22 of 50 | 16 of 22 | 17 of 25 | 43 of 85 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 16 of 22 | 72% | 14 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 16 |
| Joanne Wood | 9 of 17 | 52% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 35 of 69 | 50% | 27 of 60 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 61 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Joanne Wood | 59 of 114 | 51% | 36 of 78 | 13 of 16 | 10 of 20 | 48 of 101 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Joanne Wood, citing her significant striking volume and accuracy advantage. He is concerned about Wood's takedown defense (58%) and the possibility of Murphy grinding out rounds with control time. He expects a competitive fight but ultimately sees Wood out-striking Murphy to a decision win.
Cody leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing her strength, grit, and takedown ability. He thinks she can grind out a decision if she mixes in takedowns. He notes Calderwood's tendency to fall apart in big spots and her poor takedown defense.
Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy for the upset, citing her toughness and will to win. He acknowledges Joanne Wood is more talented but inconsistent. He notes Murphy's takedowns have improved and that Wood has a history of poor performances. He expects a close fight and thinks Murphy's durability and pressure will edge out a split decision.
Wood is faster and a better striker, with superior Muay Thai and combinations. Murphy is stronger and may try to clinch, but Wood should outstrike her at range. Murphy doesn't take damage well, and Wood's speed should allow her to land cleanly. Wood likely wins a decision, though Murphy's strength is a slight concern.
Paul picks Calderwood but is not betting it. He thinks Calderwood's striking and reach advantage will be key, and that she can keep the fight standing and outpoint Murphy. He acknowledges Murphy's toughness but believes Calderwood's technical skills will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Joanne Wood, stating she looks technically sound with good knees in the clinch, while Murphy does not look good technically. He notes Wood's recent performance against Jessica Eye and believes Wood's technical edge will be decisive. He dismisses Murphy's wins as unimpressive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 22 of 85 | 25% | 32 of 96 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Liliya Shakirova | 0 | 23 of 75 | 30% | 27 of 80 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 12 of 48 | 25% | 18 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Liliya Shakirova | 0 | 15 of 47 | 31% | 16 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 10 of 37 | 27% | 14 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Liliya Shakirova | 0 | 8 of 28 | 28% | 11 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 22 of 85 | 25% | 16 of 78 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 72 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 |
| Liliya Shakirova | 23 of 75 | 30% | 7 of 45 | 7 of 17 | 9 of 13 | 23 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 12 of 48 | 25% | 10 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 41 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Liliya Shakirova | 15 of 47 | 31% | 4 of 27 | 6 of 12 | 5 of 8 | 15 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 10 of 37 | 27% | 6 of 32 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Liliya Shakirova | 8 of 28 | 28% | 3 of 18 | 1 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Lauren Murphy but is hesitant due to the unpredictability of women's MMA. He notes Murphy's experience against better competition and good takedown defense, but acknowledges Shakirova looks decent on tape. He predicts a decision win.
Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy confidently, noting her transformation under a new doctor and her recent knockout wins. He believes Shakirova is a talented newcomer but is outclassed and outsized, and that Murphy's pressure and clinch work will be too much. He expects a unanimous decision or a TKO stoppage.
The host picks Lauren Murphy but is not confident, citing her experience, volume, and physicality. He notes that Shakirova is making her UFC debut on short notice and may struggle with the step up in competition. He sees value on Shakirova if she is a big dog.
The MMA Guru picks Lauren Murphy to win, noting that Shakirova is taking the fight on short notice and has lost to a fighter with a 4-4 record. He respects Murphy's technical fighting style and believes she will get the job done.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 44 of 174 | 25% | 71 of 206 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 4:08 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 72 of 158 | 45% | 92 of 178 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 12 of 54 | 22% | 18 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 19 of 48 | 39% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 10 of 45 | 22% | 20 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:44 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 36 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 22 of 75 | 29% | 33 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 34 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 44 of 174 | 25% | 34 of 152 | 5 of 15 | 5 of 7 | 39 of 163 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 72 of 158 | 45% | 46 of 127 | 8 of 12 | 18 of 19 | 65 of 150 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 12 of 54 | 22% | 9 of 46 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 19 of 48 | 39% | 11 of 36 | 0 of 4 | 8 of 8 | 19 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 10 of 45 | 22% | 8 of 37 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 41 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 23 of 48 | 47% | 13 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 18 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 22 of 75 | 29% | 17 of 69 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 71 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 30 of 62 | 48% | 22 of 54 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 28 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Big Brady favors Lauren Murphy to win by decision, believing she can stuff Roxanne Modafferi's takedowns and out-strike her on the feet. He notes Murphy's strong takedown defense and ability to get back up if taken down. He acknowledges Modafferi's recent wins as an underdog but thinks Murphy is the better striker and will land more shots.
Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy, arguing that Modafferi is one-dimensional and relies on takedowns. He believes Murphy's improved aggression and takedown defense will be key. Levi notes that Murphy looked great against Andrea Lee and should be a slight favorite, not an underdog. He expects a close decision win for Murphy.
Modafferi has better grappling and a reach advantage. She was winning against Barber before the injury. Murphy hasn't shown much. Modafferi will win by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 80 of 197 | 40% | 107 of 228 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 2:31 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 104 of 267 | 38% | 107 of 271 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 32 of 80 | 40% | 33 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 43 of 104 | 41% | 44 of 106 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 33 of 73 | 45% | 41 of 84 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 38 of 103 | 36% | 39 of 104 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 15 of 44 | 34% | 33 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:40 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 23 of 60 | 38% | 24 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 80 of 197 | 40% | 70 of 181 | 9 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 75 of 190 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 104 of 267 | 38% | 51 of 194 | 34 of 51 | 19 of 22 | 99 of 261 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 32 of 80 | 40% | 28 of 74 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 77 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 43 of 104 | 41% | 18 of 74 | 16 of 20 | 9 of 10 | 41 of 101 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 33 of 73 | 45% | 30 of 68 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 38 of 103 | 36% | 21 of 77 | 11 of 20 | 6 of 6 | 38 of 103 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 15 of 44 | 34% | 12 of 39 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 23 of 60 | 38% | 12 of 43 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 57 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Daniel Levi picks Andrea Lee by decision, stating she is the better striker with more volume. He notes that Lauren Murphy has improved but still has a basic fighting style. He warns against betting at -365, but expects Lee to win a decision, possibly with close rounds.
The host picks Andrea Lee by decision, citing her speed, striking, and improved grappling. He believes she is the quicker fighter and can outpoint Lauren Murphy, though he is not willing to bet her straight at -340. He considers her as a parlay piece with Jon Jones.
The MMA Guru picks Andrea Lee because she is younger, more technical, and will light up Lauren Murphy with combinations on the feet. He notes Murphy's questionable losses and expects Lee to win a unanimous decision.
Miesha Tate - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yana Santos | 0 | 66 of 117 | 56% | 87 of 143 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 40 of 115 | 34% | 108 of 204 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 5:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yana Santos | 0 | 31 of 61 | 50% | 43 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 33 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 2 | Yana Santos | 0 | 31 of 44 | 70% | 39 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 13 of 43 | 30% | 18 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 3 | Yana Santos | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 57 of 84 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yana Santos | 66 of 117 | 56% | 37 of 87 | 15 of 16 | 14 of 14 | 47 of 96 | 19 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 40 of 115 | 34% | 25 of 88 | 8 of 17 | 7 of 10 | 29 of 100 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yana Santos | 31 of 61 | 50% | 14 of 44 | 9 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 19 of 47 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 22 of 55 | 40% | 14 of 43 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 20 of 52 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yana Santos | 31 of 44 | 70% | 20 of 33 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 24 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 13 of 43 | 30% | 6 of 28 | 4 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Yana Santos | 4 of 12 | 33% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 5 of 17 | 29% | 5 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
Angelo picks Yana Santos as the underdog, citing her superior striking and footwork. He believes Miesha Tate is one-dimensional and will struggle to get takedowns. He notes that Santos looked good in her last fight and that Tate has not evolved enough to compete. He also mentions a possible spread bet if available.
Big Brady picks Miesha Tate, citing a clear path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He notes that Yana Santos has poor takedown defense (42%) and looks bad on bottom, as seen against Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira. Despite Tate's age (38) and inconsistency, her ground game is strong with submissions and ground and pound. He predicts Tate will finish by second-round submission.
Tate should take advantage of Santos's grappling shortcomings. She will mix up takedowns, get top control, and grind out a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate, stating that Yana Santos has shown an inability to do anything on the ground. He believes Tate's wrestling and experience will be enough to outwrestle Santos. He criticizes the state of women's bantamweight but expects Tate to get the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 32 of 37 | 86% | 127 of 152 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 10:55 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 16 of 18 | 88% | 50 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:54 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 16 of 18 | 88% | 69 of 82 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Julia Avila | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 32 of 37 | 86% | 31 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 29 |
| Julia Avila | 3 of 11 | 27% | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 16 of 18 | 88% | 16 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 14 |
| Julia Avila | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 16 of 18 | 88% | 15 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 |
| Julia Avila | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julia Avila | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Cody takes Tate as an underdog. He argues that Tate has fought much higher competition and even in losses she's competitive. He notes Avila's wins are over low-level opponents and she has poor takedown defense. He thinks Tate's experience and wrestling will be the difference, and that Avila's layoff and knee injury are concerns. He believes Tate's back class carries her.
Lucrative James leans towards Miesha Tate, citing intangibles such as Julia Avila's layoff after having a baby (possibly via C-section) and her previous gym issues. He believes Tate's grappling can neutralize Avila's striking, and that Avila's path to victory is on the feet. He suggests attacking props like Tate by decision rather than the moneyline.
Tate is a former champion with a strong wrestling base, and she should be able to take Avila down and grind out a win. Avila is aggressive but lacks technical striking and has shown takedown defense issues. Both fighters are returning from long layoffs, but Tate's wrestling advantage and underdog odds make her a good value pick. The fight is expected to get easier for Tate in rounds two and three.
Paul sides with Avila, citing her strength and striking. He thinks Tate's motivation is questionable and that this could be a retirement fight. He notes Avila is the better striker and stronger, but acknowledges Tate's higher level of competition. He has a creeping suspicion that both fighters might retire after this.
The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate as an underdog, noting her competitive fights against top competition like Ketlen Vieira and Lauren Murphy. He believes Julia Avila's inactivity and unimpressive last performance make Tate a live dog. He expects Tate to win by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 102 of 184 | 55% | 128 of 211 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 85 of 164 | 51% | 121 of 201 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 26 of 48 | 54% | 35 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 38 of 60 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 38 of 66 | 57% | 53 of 82 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 32 of 55 | 58% | 46 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 38 of 70 | 54% | 40 of 72 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 28 of 62 | 45% | 37 of 72 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 102 of 184 | 55% | 77 of 154 | 24 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 68 of 142 | 31 of 39 | 3 of 3 |
| Miesha Tate | 85 of 164 | 51% | 61 of 122 | 18 of 34 | 6 of 8 | 67 of 138 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 26 of 48 | 54% | 17 of 37 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 33 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 25 of 47 | 53% | 12 of 26 | 10 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 34 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 38 of 66 | 57% | 31 of 57 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 52 | 9 of 11 | 3 of 3 |
| Miesha Tate | 32 of 55 | 58% | 27 of 44 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 25 of 46 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 38 of 70 | 54% | 29 of 60 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 57 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 28 of 62 | 45% | 22 of 52 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 26 of 58 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Miesha Tate but is hesitant due to her flyweight debut. He believes Tate's wrestling and grappling will be key, and that she can avoid being bullied by Murphy. He notes Murphy's losses came via grappling dominance, and assumes Tate will be strong at 125. He is unsure about betting.
Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by decision. He notes that Tate is the more skilled fighter overall and can get takedowns to control the fight on the mat. He is not impressed by Murphy's wins and thinks the striking will be competitive. He says he would not bet Tate at -220 odds but picks her to win.
Cody picks Tate, citing her wrestling advantage, strength, and experience. He notes that Tate has been preparing for this fight for a long time and has been in great shape. He believes Tate's clinch work and takedowns will be too much for Murphy, and that Murphy's only path is to bully Tate, which he doubts she can do.
Daniel Levi leans Miesha Tate but expresses disinterest in the fight. He notes Tate is past her prime and coming off a loss, while Murphy is coming off a title fight loss and has health issues. He considers it a dog-or-pass situation and won't lay the -220 price on Tate.
Paul leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing the uncertainty of Tate's weight cut to 125 and the fact that Murphy is a natural 125er. He notes that Murphy has decent striking and could potentially outwork Tate. However, he admits he is not confident and will wait until weigh-ins before betting.
The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Lauren Murphy, criticizing Murphy's lack of skill and Tate's experience. He believes Tate will win grappling exchanges and has slightly better striking. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Tate, with Tate winning the first two rounds clearly before slowing down due to weight cut.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 113 of 263 | 42% | 156 of 313 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 122 of 276 | 44% | 145 of 302 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 18 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 21 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 20 of 55 | 36% | 28 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 26 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 4 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 50 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 31 of 54 | 57% | 44 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 | |
| 5 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 30 of 73 | 41% | 31 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 33 of 73 | 45% | 38 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 113 of 263 | 42% | 95 of 243 | 14 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 105 of 254 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 122 of 276 | 44% | 52 of 175 | 60 of 88 | 10 of 13 | 110 of 260 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 14 of 38 | 36% | 12 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 13 of 38 | 34% | 8 of 24 | 4 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 13 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 29 of 54 | 53% | 24 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 21 of 54 | 38% | 14 of 42 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 21 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 20 of 55 | 36% | 18 of 52 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 24 of 57 | 42% | 4 of 28 | 15 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 54 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Ketlen Vieira | 20 of 43 | 46% | 16 of 39 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 38 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 31 of 54 | 57% | 8 of 27 | 21 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 45 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Ketlen Vieira | 30 of 73 | 41% | 25 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 33 of 73 | 45% | 18 of 54 | 14 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 70 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
At long last, we have reached the main event. It’s been a journey tonight. Vieira (11-2, 5-2 UFC) will try to get back in the win column against former champ Tate (19-7, 6-4 UFC). The cage commander for this final fight of the night is referee Jason Herzog, and both with an eye on a crack at the bantamweight belt in the future touch hands to start things out. Vieira captures the center of the cage in the early going, but they keep a very safe range from the other to not land punches or kicks. They take turns following the other, until Vieira sits down with a right hand to smack Tate in the face. Tate tries to jab the body a few times, and Vieira is there to pop her with a left hand over the top. Tate swings, misses, and gets countered by the Brazilian. Vieira sticks out a crisp jab, and her range is giving Tate pause at how to get in on her. When Tate jumps forward into a one-two, Vieira swats it out of the way and dances back when Tate aims a kick at her leg. Tate appears jittery as she hops back and forth to try to get in on Vieira, throwing a single front kick to the body. Vieira tags Tate with a right hand when Tate closes in on her, and the former champ lands a pair of successful punches. Caught celebrating her work a little too long, Vieira counters her with heavier blows before Tate can escape. The distance between the two is vast, and Tate resorts to staggering and stutter-stepping her way in. Tate chases Vieira down and slugs her in the face with a combination, and when Vieira tries to answer her with strikes of her own, Tate ties her up and presses her into the wall. Although Vieira separates, Tate knees her once to the body. Tate ducks a punch combination to push Vieira back into the wire, and like before, Vieira is able to separate without issue. From a distance, Vieira shoots in for a takedown, and Tate is able to stop it from succeeding. They end the round in an awkward position with Tate’s hand on her foe’s backside.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Round 2
A tense exchange begins the second round, and Vieira lands cleanly on Tate’s left eye, forcing some reddening and immediate swelling. Tate pays it no mind as she kicks Vieira in the head, but it is only a glancing blow as the Brazilian rolls with it. Tate keeps reaching out to try to get in on her opponent, and she eats a Vieira punch so that she can score a solid right hand. The former champ plants the fall of her foot on Vieira’s torso, interrupting Vieira from landing a strike. Tate winds up with a stiff right hand, nailing Vieira and forcing her to reel. In response, Vieira scores a left hand down the pipe. Vieira chops at the leg, and they both start trading heavy leather in front of one another. Tate lands, and Vieira is stuck countering instead of leading the exchanges. This allows Tate to land on her first before replying. Tate connects with a big kick to Vieira’s face, and she sees that it has done some damage as she follows it with a chain of punches. Tate strings together a few one-twos, and Vieira shakes it off and lands her own thudding left hook on the side of Tate’s head. The woman formerly known as “Takedown” attempts one in the open cage, and Vieira stuffs it without issue. She tries again, and Vieira stops that one as well and separates. Tate walks Vieira down with kicks and punches, while not appearing too worried about the single counters that come back at her. Tate scores with a pair of clean right hands, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Round 3
Tate comes out firing to start off the second round, surprising the Brazilian early with a short blitz of blows. Backing away before the counters follow suit, Tate changes things up with an inside leg kick and then one on the outside. Vieira leans into a left hand, and after a lull in the action, Tate reaches out with a left hand to stop a punch and she pokes Vieira square in the eyeball. Herzog acknowledges this and brings in the doctor, and after a minute to clear things out, Vieira is ready to go again. Tate wants to capitalize on this accident by chasing Vieira down with jabs and follow-up right hands. Tate keeps a low stance, and she punches the body while Vieira is sitting firmly on counters. Tate punches, slips the response and jabs out again. Tate gives chase, and a big right hand gets caught under Vieira’s armpit. Tate lands a right, tries to clinch up and eats a short right hand for her effort. Tate goes up high with a kick, and when it collides off of Vieira’s guard, Vieira aims a right hand down the middle. Tate advances, and Vieira swings a pair of looping hooks to keep Tate honest. The former champ lands a single strike, while Vieira’s prepared counter of an uppercut and a right hand knocks Tate back. The Brazilian lands cleanly in another exchange, forcing Tate to change levels and pursue a takedown. Vieira defends it well and separates without going down to her knees. When Vieira gets up, Tate meets her outstretched leg with a kick, and Vieira lances her with a right hand in a sharp retort. Tate rushes forward to clinch her up to end the round, and she holds on to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 4
They meet and touch gloves in the center of the cage to initiate the championship rounds. Tate starts off aggressively, chasing her opponent down and landing punches. Tate clubs her opponent with a crisp right hand, and she escapes when Vieira sets up a counter. The Brazilian lands a few punches from a distance, and they trade heavily suddenly. Tate mixes things up with a takedown attempt, and she finally hits it and gets Vieira down. As “Fenomeno” stands up, Tate takes her back and looks to hit a mat return by tripping Vieira down. Clinched up, Tate gives up on the takedown entry so that she can land short strikes to the body and head. Staying tight keeps Tate away from eating any counters, and she presses her full body weight on her opponent that had never before fought beyond the third round. Vieira grits her teeth and pushes Tate away, and she starts lunging out with jabs. Tate marks her up with a big punch, and Vieira blasts her right back. Both women wear it well, and Tate kicks Vieira in the body from afar. Tate lands a few punches before coming in to clinch, and she knees Vieira in the body once. Vieira gives several punches back to the midsection, until Tate has had enough of that and pushes away. A Tate leg kick is met with a straight left hand, and Vieira catches Tate coming in with a string of punches. Vieira loads up on a right hand, and she elbows Tate when Tate tries to clinch. Vieira welcomes the clinch again in the open cage, as she repeatedly punches Tate in the side as she did before. Tate holds on tight with a clinch, and she releases a knee to the head. Another knee scores for the former champ, who ends the round in the Thai clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Round 5
The bantamweights touch hands and then come in to hug to commence the last round. Vieira lets her hands go when they start fighting, and she connects cleanly with power punches as Tate looks to be safe. They come together in a clinch, and Tate works the body before Vieira separates. Vieira tags her opponent with an uppercut and a left hand, and Tate is forced to back off and gather her thoughts. When she does, the ex-champ kicks the body and then tries to get a knee off to the chest. Tate kicks the body, but Vieira is there to bang with her as she starts throwing hard. As Tate backs off, Vieira leans on a long jab, and she busts Tate’s nose open with a powerful knee and a few punches up top. Tate misses on one-twos as Vieira appears to be the fresher, more composed woman right now. Tate springs back and forth, jabbing out but not throwing nearly as much as she did before the nose got cracked. Tate sneaks a right hand over the top, but Vieira throws three back at her that are much heavier. They trade single jabs, and Tate steps forward into a one-two that knocks Vieira back. Vieira returns fire with jabs that continue to pound into Tate’s bloodied nose, and the former champion’s face has transformed into a crimson mask. Hardly recognizable, Tate does not care, as she continues to swing punches while Vieira is tight and crisp with her boxing. The jabs have shut Tate’s left eye as well as making her nose bleed furiously, and Tate marches on and kicks her in the side. Tate continues to pour it on as Vieira stays on her bicycle, successfully scoring with laser-accurate strikes that barely register for Tate. The fight comes to an end after 25 minutes of action, and it could be anyone’s guess who wins this fight based on how close most of the rounds were. UFC Fight Night 198, and a consecutive weekend stretch of 10 UFC cards, comes to an end with an event that brought 10 decisions in 11 bouts. We all could use a week off, and we will have it. When the UFC returns in December, it will be on ESPN for U.S. audiences with a barnburner of a main event between Rob Font and Jose Aldo. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Vieira)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Vieira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Tate)
The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Miesha Tate via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
Angelo picks Ketlen Vieira, citing her power, size, and solid takedown defense (92%). He notes Miesha Tate's striking is poor and she relies on takedowns, but Vieira has stuffed takedowns from Olympic wrestler Sarah McMahon. He expects Vieira to win by decision or late stoppage, and placed a moneyline bet at even money (+100). He also mentions live betting opportunities.
Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by late finish (4th or 5th round). He notes that Ketlen Vieira has never fought five rounds and tends to slow down in the third round, as seen in fights against Eubanks and Kanutsukai. He believes Tate's improved striking and wrestling will allow her to survive early and take over as Vieira fades. He sees a late stoppage as very live.
Cody believes Miesha Tate is undervalued as a slight underdog. He points to Tate's championship pedigree, improved striking, and excellent conditioning for a five-round fight. He highlights Ketlen Vieira's history of gassing in the third round of her fights, including against Yana Kunitskaya where she was out-struck 44-7. Cody argues that Tate's wrestling is good enough to stuff takedowns and that if the fight stays standing, Tate has the advantage. He expects Tate to take over in rounds four and five as Vieira fades.
Daniel Levi picks Ketlen Vieira despite her history of mental lapses and cardio issues. He notes that Vieira has superior skills across the board, including judo and power, but worries about her hitting a wall in later rounds. He believes Miesha Tate is stiff and slow, and that Vieira has no pressure on her in this fight. However, he acknowledges Tate's toughness and comeback ability, making this a hesitant pick.
Lock sees this as a classic early Vera vs late Tate fight. He thinks Vera gasses badly after round two, and Tate will take over with takedowns and top control. He notes Tate is hunting a finish and might get it late. Lock likes the under 4.5 rounds at +140 and Tate inside the distance at +375. He also sprinkled Tate round 4 and round 5 props.
Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting that Vieira's gas tank is a major concern, especially in a five-round fight. He references the Yana Kunitskaya fight where Vieira missed weight and gassed hard at the end of round three. Paul believes that if Vieira cannot put Tate away early, Tate will take over late. He also mentions that this could be a good live bet opportunity if Vieira slows down in round three and Tate is still available at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Ketlen Vieira. He notes that Vieira slows down in later rounds, as seen against Yana Kunitskaya and Sijara Eubanks. He highlights Tate's championship experience, composure, and conditioning. He expects a stalemate on the feet early, but Tate to win scrambles and land ground and pound in the later rounds, finishing with a fourth-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 25 of 64 | 39% | 48 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 65 of 120 | 54% | 110 of 183 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 30 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 25 of 43 | 58% | 34 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 22 of 40 | 55% | 45 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marion Reneau | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 31 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 25 of 64 | 39% | 16 of 54 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 49 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 6 |
| Marion Reneau | 65 of 120 | 54% | 44 of 93 | 16 of 20 | 5 of 7 | 32 of 74 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 38 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 15 of 37 | 40% | 8 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 26 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 3 |
| Marion Reneau | 25 of 43 | 58% | 15 of 31 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Marion Reneau | 22 of 40 | 55% | 15 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 15 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 2 of 9 | 22% | 1 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marion Reneau | 18 of 37 | 48% | 14 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 22 |
Cody is confident in Miesha Tate despite the five-year layoff, citing her excellent physical shape and the fact that Marion Reneau is on a four-fight losing streak and has announced her retirement. He believes Tate's wrestling and grappling will be the difference, and he is surprised the odds are not wider. He acknowledges the red flags but thinks the matchup is favorable.
Paul expresses significant doubts about Miesha Tate's return, citing the five-year layoff, her split with longtime coach Brian Caraway, and her lackluster performances before retiring. He notes that Marion Reneau is durable and has experience, but ultimately he has no confidence in either fighter and passes on betting the fight. He does not make a clear pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 21 of 65 | 32% | 48 of 93 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 43 of 77 | 55% | 111 of 156 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 6:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 7 of 29 | 24% | 12 of 34 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 26 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 24 of 37 | 64% | 55 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:57 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 42 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raquel Pennington | 21 of 65 | 32% | 8 of 34 | 11 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 47 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 43 of 77 | 55% | 31 of 65 | 8 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 46 | 13 of 15 | 11 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raquel Pennington | 7 of 29 | 24% | 2 of 13 | 3 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 8 of 21 | 38% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raquel Pennington | 13 of 32 | 40% | 5 of 17 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 14 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 24 of 37 | 64% | 16 of 29 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 22 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Raquel Pennington | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 11 of 19 | 57% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 16 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Nunes | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 40 of 63 | 63% | 40 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Nunes | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 40 of 63 | 63% | 40 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Nunes | 3 of 15 | 20% | 2 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 40 of 63 | 63% | 35 of 54 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 30 of 50 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Nunes | 3 of 15 | 20% | 2 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Miesha Tate | 40 of 63 | 63% | 35 of 54 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 30 of 50 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 8 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 0 | 59 of 142 | 41% | 68 of 151 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 40 of 104 | 38% | 65 of 132 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 | 0 | 5:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 7 of 27 | 25% | 7 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 29 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:30 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 13 of 41 | 31% | 13 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 7 of 23 | 30% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 14 of 40 | 35% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 7 of 22 | 31% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 5 | Miesha Tate | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 9 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miesha Tate | 59 of 142 | 41% | 35 of 109 | 16 of 21 | 8 of 12 | 57 of 139 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 40 of 104 | 38% | 29 of 83 | 7 of 12 | 4 of 9 | 26 of 88 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miesha Tate | 14 of 28 | 50% | 8 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 4 | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 7 of 27 | 25% | 7 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 6 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Miesha Tate | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 11 of 18 | 61% | 10 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 12 | |
| 3 | Miesha Tate | 13 of 41 | 31% | 9 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 7 of 23 | 30% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Miesha Tate | 14 of 40 | 35% | 8 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 7 of 22 | 31% | 6 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Miesha Tate | 17 of 31 | 54% | 10 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 8 of 14 | 57% | 3 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Miesha Tate but is hesitant due to her flyweight debut. He believes Tate's wrestling and grappling will be key, and that she can avoid being bullied by Murphy. He notes Murphy's losses came via grappling dominance, and assumes Tate will be strong at 125. He is unsure about betting.
Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by decision. He notes that Tate is the more skilled fighter overall and can get takedowns to control the fight on the mat. He is not impressed by Murphy's wins and thinks the striking will be competitive. He says he would not bet Tate at -220 odds but picks her to win.
Cody picks Tate, citing her wrestling advantage, strength, and experience. He notes that Tate has been preparing for this fight for a long time and has been in great shape. He believes Tate's clinch work and takedowns will be too much for Murphy, and that Murphy's only path is to bully Tate, which he doubts she can do.
Daniel Levi leans Miesha Tate but expresses disinterest in the fight. He notes Tate is past her prime and coming off a loss, while Murphy is coming off a title fight loss and has health issues. He considers it a dog-or-pass situation and won't lay the -220 price on Tate.
Paul leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing the uncertainty of Tate's weight cut to 125 and the fact that Murphy is a natural 125er. He notes that Murphy has decent striking and could potentially outwork Tate. However, he admits he is not confident and will wait until weigh-ins before betting.
The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Lauren Murphy, criticizing Murphy's lack of skill and Tate's experience. He believes Tate will win grappling exchanges and has slightly better striking. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Tate, with Tate winning the first two rounds clearly before slowing down due to weight cut.
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