vs
+180 -200
UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez Next Fight
Age 42
Height 5' 5"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 6"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Lauren Murphy
3.94 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
5.19 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.09 TD Avg
24.0% TD Acc.
67.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Miesha Tate
2.62 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
3.05 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
1.97 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
56.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Lauren Murphy
Moneyline
Caesars +180
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1300
Submission
DraftKings +1600
Decision
FanDuel +260
Miesha Tate
Moneyline
BetMGM -200
KO/TKO
DraftKings +900
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
FanDuel +100
Lauren Murphy - Fight History
LOSS vs Eduarda Moura
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 38 of 145 26% 67 of 179 2 of 9 22% 2 0 1:03
Eduarda Moura 0 64 of 235 27% 74 of 248 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 6 of 33 18% 13 of 41 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:03
Eduarda Moura 0 19 of 58 32% 26 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:32
2 Lauren Murphy 0 11 of 51 21% 27 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Eduarda Moura 0 20 of 77 25% 22 of 79 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:23
3 Lauren Murphy 0 21 of 61 34% 27 of 68 1 of 5 20% 2 0 0:59
Eduarda Moura 0 25 of 100 25% 26 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 38 of 145 26% 38 of 144 0 of 0 0 of 1 34 of 140 4 of 5 0 of 0
Eduarda Moura 64 of 235 27% 52 of 221 1 of 2 11 of 12 64 of 234 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 6 of 33 18% 6 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 1 6 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Eduarda Moura 19 of 58 32% 14 of 51 0 of 1 5 of 6 19 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Lauren Murphy 11 of 51 21% 11 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 47 3 of 4 0 of 0
Eduarda Moura 20 of 77 25% 17 of 74 0 of 0 3 of 3 20 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Lauren Murphy 21 of 61 34% 21 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0 20 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0
Eduarda Moura 25 of 100 25% 21 of 96 1 of 1 3 of 3 25 of 100 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Eduarda Moura

Angelo believes Eduarda Moura is younger, faster, and a better grappler than the 41-year-old Lauren Murphy, who hasn't fought in two years. He thinks Murphy's toughness won't be enough against Moura's aggressive grappling and solid takedowns. He hates the -600 odds but thinks Moura wins 95% of the time and is okay to parlay.

Hates -600 odds but thinks Moura wins 95% of the time and is okay to parlay.
"Eduarda Mora is going to be the pick. I hate that she's minus 600."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Eduarda Moura

Big Brady is disgusted by the -600 line on Eduarda Moura. He notes Moura's poor cardio and low volume, and Lauren Murphy's 70% takedown defense. However, he picks Moura by decision because Murphy is 41, hasn't fought in 2.5 years, and this is her retirement fight. He is not confident in the line.

decision
"I'm going to pick more here to win by decision, but I just don't see in what world she looks anywhere minus 600."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Eduarda Moura

The host is hesitant about this pick, noting that he doesn't understand why Moura is such a heavy favorite. He acknowledges Moura's grappling strength but also points out that Murphy has a physicality and striking advantage and could make the fight close. Ultimately, he expects Moura to win bits and pieces of the fight and get her hand raised on the scorecards.

"Mora again, prohibitive favorite. I don't really understand why. Uh she might be strong enough in the grappling realm to really put it on the 42-year-old uh Lauren Murphy, who's also been out of the cage for 2 and 1/2 …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Eduarda Moura

The MMA Guru picks Eduarda Moura, citing her better grappling entries and fight IQ in knowing when to shoot for takedowns. He heavily criticizes Lauren Murphy's last performance against Jessica Andrade, where she took a record amount of damage and had no answer. He notes Murphy's long layoff and age, and expects Moura to outwrestle and outstrike her for a 30-27 decision.

decision win 30-27
"I'm going to go with Eduardo Mora over Lauren Murphy. Eduardo Mora... I think she's got better grappling entries and I think that's going to be the difference here."
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 100 of 293 34% 103 of 296 0 of 15 0% 0 0 0:09
Lauren Murphy 0 231 of 369 62% 237 of 375 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 22 of 91 24% 24 of 93 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:08
Lauren Murphy 0 61 of 107 57% 62 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jéssica Andrade 0 29 of 95 30% 29 of 95 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:01
Lauren Murphy 0 75 of 121 61% 78 of 124 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
3 Jéssica Andrade 0 49 of 107 45% 50 of 108 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Lauren Murphy 0 95 of 141 67% 97 of 143 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 100 of 293 34% 81 of 268 14 of 19 5 of 6 90 of 276 10 of 17 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 231 of 369 62% 161 of 292 23 of 27 47 of 50 208 of 338 22 of 30 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 22 of 91 24% 17 of 85 5 of 5 0 of 1 22 of 90 0 of 1 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 61 of 107 57% 31 of 75 3 of 3 27 of 29 58 of 101 3 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jéssica Andrade 29 of 95 30% 21 of 83 6 of 10 2 of 2 23 of 86 6 of 9 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 75 of 121 61% 52 of 96 12 of 13 11 of 12 62 of 103 12 of 17 1 of 1
3 Jéssica Andrade 49 of 107 45% 43 of 100 3 of 4 3 of 3 45 of 100 4 of 7 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 95 of 141 67% 78 of 121 8 of 11 9 of 9 88 of 134 7 of 7 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Big Brady picks Andrade with good confidence, noting she has only lost to the best (Valentina, Rose, Zhang, Weili). He is not high on Murphy, calling her lucky and noting she has lost fights that went her way. Andrade is younger, more powerful, has takedown upside, and will pressure with volume. He respects Murphy's toughness and durability, predicting a decision win for Andrade, but won't lay -450.

decision
"I will pick andraj with some pretty pretty good confidence and I'll say she does win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Cody picks Jéssica Andrade confidently, expecting her to smash Lauren Murphy. He notes Andrade's power, aggression, strength, and well-rounded skills. He says Murphy is scrappy but not on Andrade's level, and that Andrade will either finish via guillotine or win a brawl. He warns about women's MMA and big favorites, but thinks Andrade's skill advantage is clear. He also mentions Andrade's cardio is not half bad.

considering Andrade inside the distance at +200; mentions Andrade's guillotine choke
"I think Jessica Andrade should absolutely smash I'm surprised it's jazera fair and still in the organization"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Connor picks Andrade, noting that Murphy is glacially slow and Andrade is much faster and harder hitting. He thinks Andrade's physicality will be too much, even if she can't overpower Murphy in the clinch. Connor also points out that good athletes can take Murphy down, and Andrade is a good athlete.

Connor mentions the odds but does not place a bet.
"Andrade is way faster and way harder hitting. I'm still going to pick Andrade."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Paul picks Jéssica Andrade but with some hesitation. He notes Andrade's power, aggression, and strength, and says Murphy's best version still struggles with Andrade's worst. He mentions Murphy's durability and cardio but thinks Andrade's skill set is superior. He warns about women's MMA and big favorites, and says there is a world where Andrade gets tired. He thinks Andrade wins but wouldn't put a huge bet on her.

mentions Andrade's guillotine choke; says Murphy's durability is a concern
"Jessica and Josh has just got Lauren Murphy Pete everywhere if the fight stays standing Murphy's got that Scrappy striking style which will she'll stand in the pocket and exchange with you it's like Jessica's gonna drive to someone you …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The Guru confidently picks Andrade, saying she 'throws punches like a man' and has finished top competition like Chookagian, Calvillo, and Lemos in the first round. He criticizes Murphy's fighting ability, calling her 'fighting blind.' Despite Murphy doing better against Shevchenko on paper, the Guru sees a clear difference in performance and predicts Andrade will KO Murphy.

KO
"I'm going with Jessica and Raj getting the KO win over Lauren Murphy I don't see Murphy winning this one at all"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Zane picks Andrade but with hesitation. He notes Andrade has made wrong moves lately, regressing to a cautious style, but her physicality, speed, and power should be enough against the slower Murphy. Zane worries about Andrade's approach and Murphy's strength and durability, but believes Andrade is more likely to finish.

Andrade opened at -500, now -491; Murphy opened at +385, now +367. Zane advises staying away from betting on this fight.
"I'm still going to pick Andrade because if one of them's going to finish this fight it's going to be her."
WIN vs Miesha Tate
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 102 of 184 55% 128 of 211 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:18
Miesha Tate 0 85 of 164 51% 121 of 201 0 of 7 0% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 26 of 48 54% 35 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
Miesha Tate 0 25 of 47 53% 38 of 60 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:04
2 Lauren Murphy 0 38 of 66 57% 53 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:41
Miesha Tate 0 32 of 55 58% 46 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
3 Lauren Murphy 0 38 of 70 54% 40 of 72 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:05
Miesha Tate 0 28 of 62 45% 37 of 72 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 102 of 184 55% 77 of 154 24 of 29 1 of 1 68 of 142 31 of 39 3 of 3
Miesha Tate 85 of 164 51% 61 of 122 18 of 34 6 of 8 67 of 138 18 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 26 of 48 54% 17 of 37 9 of 11 0 of 0 15 of 33 11 of 15 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 25 of 47 53% 12 of 26 10 of 18 3 of 3 16 of 34 9 of 13 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 38 of 66 57% 31 of 57 6 of 8 1 of 1 26 of 52 9 of 11 3 of 3
Miesha Tate 32 of 55 58% 27 of 44 4 of 9 1 of 2 25 of 46 7 of 9 0 of 0
3 Lauren Murphy 38 of 70 54% 29 of 60 9 of 10 0 of 0 27 of 57 11 of 13 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 28 of 62 45% 22 of 52 4 of 7 2 of 3 26 of 58 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Angelo picks Miesha Tate but is hesitant due to her flyweight debut. He believes Tate's wrestling and grappling will be key, and that she can avoid being bullied by Murphy. He notes Murphy's losses came via grappling dominance, and assumes Tate will be strong at 125. He is unsure about betting.

unsure about betting
"so i'm gonna go with misha tate here anybody complaining that she's a little old she's 35 she's a younger fighter in this matchup so misha tate one big brother and i think she's gonna win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by decision. He notes that Tate is the more skilled fighter overall and can get takedowns to control the fight on the mat. He is not impressed by Murphy's wins and thinks the striking will be competitive. He says he would not bet Tate at -220 odds but picks her to win.

decision win; odds comment: minus 220 too high
"i'll take misha tate but minus 220. there's no way i would touch that but gimishita misha tate bye decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Cody picks Tate, citing her wrestling advantage, strength, and experience. He notes that Tate has been preparing for this fight for a long time and has been in great shape. He believes Tate's clinch work and takedowns will be too much for Murphy, and that Murphy's only path is to bully Tate, which he doubts she can do.

"i gotta go with cupcake tate i know that you haven't eight minus one five"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Daniel Levi leans Miesha Tate but expresses disinterest in the fight. He notes Tate is past her prime and coming off a loss, while Murphy is coming off a title fight loss and has health issues. He considers it a dog-or-pass situation and won't lay the -220 price on Tate.

dog-or-pass; not laying the chalk
"i'll say it's dog or pass at the betting window you know with a price like that i'll lean misha tate"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Paul leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing the uncertainty of Tate's weight cut to 125 and the fact that Murphy is a natural 125er. He notes that Murphy has decent striking and could potentially outwork Tate. However, he admits he is not confident and will wait until weigh-ins before betting.

"i think it's a very very clear dogger pass lauren murphy for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Lauren Murphy, criticizing Murphy's lack of skill and Tate's experience. He believes Tate will win grappling exchanges and has slightly better striking. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Tate, with Tate winning the first two rounds clearly before slowing down due to weight cut.

"i'm gonna go with misha tate here lauren murphy has no idea what she's doing she's terrible at fighting"
TKO (elbows and punches) R4 4:00 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 98 of 170 57% 132 of 204 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:04
Lauren Murphy 0 11 of 91 12% 19 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 20 of 39 51% 24 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Lauren Murphy 0 3 of 24 12% 3 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 10 of 17 58% 30 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:13
Lauren Murphy 0 1 of 18 5% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
3 Valentina Shevchenko 0 21 of 48 43% 25 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Lauren Murphy 0 5 of 30 16% 6 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Valentina Shevchenko 0 47 of 66 71% 53 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:12
Lauren Murphy 0 2 of 19 10% 2 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 98 of 170 57% 62 of 126 19 of 24 17 of 20 72 of 137 6 of 8 20 of 25
Lauren Murphy 11 of 91 12% 4 of 73 3 of 13 4 of 5 11 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 20 of 39 51% 9 of 24 5 of 7 6 of 8 19 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 3 of 24 12% 2 of 21 0 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 10 of 17 58% 6 of 13 3 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 3
Lauren Murphy 1 of 18 5% 1 of 15 0 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Valentina Shevchenko 21 of 48 43% 9 of 33 6 of 8 6 of 7 20 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 5 of 30 16% 0 of 23 2 of 4 3 of 3 5 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Valentina Shevchenko 47 of 66 71% 38 of 56 5 of 6 4 of 4 25 of 38 4 of 6 18 of 22
Lauren Murphy 2 of 19 10% 1 of 14 1 of 4 0 of 1 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Angelo picks Shevchenko, calling her one of the best fighters ever. He highlights her technical striking, grappling, and championship composure. He notes that Murphy's path to victory is narrow and that Shevchenko can win anywhere. Angelo expects a dominant performance.

Angelo suggests less less on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting a finish in round three. He also mentions betting on Shevchenko by stoppage in each round to guarantee profit.
"Valentina will go down as one of the best to ever do it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by fourth-round TKO. He believes Shevchenko has every advantage: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes Murphy is tough and has never been finished, but she has never faced anyone near Shevchenko's caliber. He expects Shevchenko to find a finish late in the fight.

fourth round tko
"i'm going to take valenciano to finish lauren murphy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Cody is confident Shevchenko wins anywhere the fight goes, citing her superior kickboxing, speed, footwork, and grappling. He notes Murphy's durability and never being knocked out, but believes Shevchenko's patience and skill will lead to a late stoppage, possibly becoming the first to finish Murphy. He leans over 2.5 rounds due to Murphy's toughness.

over 2.5 rounds (-120), Shevchenko inside the distance
"i think we're all on the same page that she's going to win the fight she can win this fight anywhere she chooses to"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Daniel Levi confidently picks Valentina Shevchenko, stating that Lauren Murphy's toughness and durability are not enough to overcome the massive skill gap. He notes that Murphy has never been finished, but Shevchenko's technique is superior. Levi believes it would take a fluke for Murphy to win, and he expects Shevchenko to win, though he is unsure whether it will be by decision or finish.

"give me valentina i guess the big question is inside the distance or by decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Jacob picks Shevchenko, noting she's running out of opponents and should fight Nunes again. He praises her judo and grappling. Jacob is confident Shevchenko wins easily.

Jacob agrees with less less on Monkey Knife Fight. He mentions knockout Kings and might include Shevchenko.
"Chevy's gonna win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Valentina Shevchenko

The host picks Valentina Shevchenko by fourth-round TKO. He believes Shevchenko will eventually set up the crucifix position and finish Murphy. He notes that Murphy is durable and may survive early, but Shevchenko's pressure will increase. He likes the over 2.5 rounds at even money. He thinks Murphy's takedown success will be temporary and Shevchenko will adapt.

Over 2.5 rounds at +100; round 4 prop for Shevchenko
"i'm gonna go with chevchenko and i'm gonna call it fourth round tko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Paul picks Shevchenko confidently, noting her dominance and the large talent gap. He mentions she could finish inside the distance but also acknowledges she can be patient. He is unsure about betting the moneyline due to the price and considers the over 2.5 rounds, but has no bet yet.

over 2.5 rounds (considering)
"breaking news shevchenko is my pick um i think she wins inside the distance"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko over Lauren Murphy, citing Shevchenko's vast superiority in all areas. He notes that Murphy is on a five-fight winning streak but lost her last two fights (split decisions) and is 38 years old. He expects Shevchenko to win by second-round crucifix TKO, similar to her fight against Andrade, as Murphy will likely shoot for a takedown and get reversed. He dismisses Murphy's chances entirely.

second round crucifix tko
"second round crucifix tko just like the andraj fight"
WIN vs Joanne Wood
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 80 of 148 54% 121 of 195 1 of 6 16% 0 0 4:54
Joanne Wood 0 123 of 228 53% 153 of 259 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 29 of 57 50% 40 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:39
Joanne Wood 0 55 of 97 56% 64 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Lauren Murphy 0 16 of 22 72% 43 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:15
Joanne Wood 0 9 of 17 52% 26 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Lauren Murphy 0 35 of 69 50% 38 of 72 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Joanne Wood 0 59 of 114 51% 63 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 80 of 148 54% 66 of 131 14 of 17 0 of 0 55 of 119 10 of 13 15 of 16
Joanne Wood 123 of 228 53% 62 of 137 30 of 41 31 of 50 99 of 201 23 of 25 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 29 of 57 50% 25 of 51 4 of 6 0 of 0 26 of 52 3 of 5 0 of 0
Joanne Wood 55 of 97 56% 22 of 50 16 of 22 17 of 25 43 of 85 12 of 12 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 16 of 22 72% 14 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 16
Joanne Wood 9 of 17 52% 4 of 9 1 of 3 4 of 5 8 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Lauren Murphy 35 of 69 50% 27 of 60 8 of 9 0 of 0 28 of 61 7 of 8 0 of 0
Joanne Wood 59 of 114 51% 36 of 78 13 of 16 10 of 20 48 of 101 11 of 13 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 8, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Big Brady picks Joanne Wood, citing her significant striking volume and accuracy advantage. He is concerned about Wood's takedown defense (58%) and the possibility of Murphy grinding out rounds with control time. He expects a competitive fight but ultimately sees Wood out-striking Murphy to a decision win.

Wood by decision
"i will ultimately take jojo calderwood to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Cody leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing her strength, grit, and takedown ability. He thinks she can grind out a decision if she mixes in takedowns. He notes Calderwood's tendency to fall apart in big spots and her poor takedown defense.

"lauren murphy plus 130 is where i would attack this"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jun 10, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy for the upset, citing her toughness and will to win. He acknowledges Joanne Wood is more talented but inconsistent. He notes Murphy's takedowns have improved and that Wood has a history of poor performances. He expects a close fight and thinks Murphy's durability and pressure will edge out a split decision.

split decision
"i'll go with lauren murphy for the upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2021 (fight day)
Joanne Wood

Wood is faster and a better striker, with superior Muay Thai and combinations. Murphy is stronger and may try to clinch, but Wood should outstrike her at range. Murphy doesn't take damage well, and Wood's speed should allow her to land cleanly. Wood likely wins a decision, though Murphy's strength is a slight concern.

Wood by decision
"I do like Joanne Wood again I think she's a little bit better all around... I do have some solid confidence in Joanne Wood to go out there and outstrike Lauren Murphy for the majority of 15 minutes and take …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Paul picks Calderwood but is not betting it. He thinks Calderwood's striking and reach advantage will be key, and that she can keep the fight standing and outpoint Murphy. He acknowledges Murphy's toughness but believes Calderwood's technical skills will prevail.

"the official pick is going to be joanne calderwood but from a betting perspective i think i'm just looking to pass"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

The MMA Guru picks Joanne Wood, stating she looks technically sound with good knees in the clinch, while Murphy does not look good technically. He notes Wood's recent performance against Jessica Eye and believes Wood's technical edge will be decisive. He dismisses Murphy's wins as unimpressive.

"i'm going with joanne calderwood i've watched the pair of them fight"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:31 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 22 of 85 25% 32 of 96 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:10
Liliya Shakirova 0 23 of 75 30% 27 of 80 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 12 of 48 25% 18 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Liliya Shakirova 0 15 of 47 31% 16 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:29
2 Lauren Murphy 0 10 of 37 27% 14 of 42 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:05
Liliya Shakirova 0 8 of 28 28% 11 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 22 of 85 25% 16 of 78 6 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 72 8 of 11 2 of 2
Liliya Shakirova 23 of 75 30% 7 of 45 7 of 17 9 of 13 23 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 12 of 48 25% 10 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 41 5 of 7 0 of 0
Liliya Shakirova 15 of 47 31% 4 of 27 6 of 12 5 of 8 15 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 10 of 37 27% 6 of 32 4 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 31 3 of 4 2 of 2
Liliya Shakirova 8 of 28 28% 3 of 18 1 of 5 4 of 5 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Big Brady picks Lauren Murphy but is hesitant due to the unpredictability of women's MMA. He notes Murphy's experience against better competition and good takedown defense, but acknowledges Shakirova looks decent on tape. He predicts a decision win.

decision
"give me laura murphy by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy confidently, noting her transformation under a new doctor and her recent knockout wins. He believes Shakirova is a talented newcomer but is outclassed and outsized, and that Murphy's pressure and clinch work will be too much. He expects a unanimous decision or a TKO stoppage.

Most likely unanimous decision but a TKO stoppage wouldn't surprise
"i'm gonna go with lord murphy most likely unanimous decision but a tko stoppage somewhere along the way won't surprise me either"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

The host picks Lauren Murphy but is not confident, citing her experience, volume, and physicality. He notes that Shakirova is making her UFC debut on short notice and may struggle with the step up in competition. He sees value on Shakirova if she is a big dog.

Murphy by decision
"i'm going murphy here uh not the most confident in it either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

The MMA Guru picks Lauren Murphy to win, noting that Shakirova is taking the fight on short notice and has lost to a fighter with a 4-4 record. He respects Murphy's technical fighting style and believes she will get the job done.

"i'm gonna go with lauren murphy getting it done mostly because lilia shakira... is taking it on short notice"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 44 of 174 25% 71 of 206 0 of 1 0% 0 1 4:08
Roxanne Modafferi 0 72 of 158 45% 92 of 178 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 12 of 54 22% 18 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:14
Roxanne Modafferi 0 19 of 48 39% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Lauren Murphy 0 10 of 45 22% 20 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:44
Roxanne Modafferi 0 23 of 48 47% 36 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
3 Lauren Murphy 0 22 of 75 29% 33 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:10
Roxanne Modafferi 0 30 of 62 48% 34 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 44 of 174 25% 34 of 152 5 of 15 5 of 7 39 of 163 5 of 11 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 72 of 158 45% 46 of 127 8 of 12 18 of 19 65 of 150 3 of 3 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 12 of 54 22% 9 of 46 1 of 5 2 of 3 11 of 51 1 of 3 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 19 of 48 39% 11 of 36 0 of 4 8 of 8 19 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 10 of 45 22% 8 of 37 2 of 7 0 of 1 9 of 41 1 of 4 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 23 of 48 47% 13 of 37 5 of 5 5 of 6 18 of 42 3 of 3 2 of 3
3 Lauren Murphy 22 of 75 29% 17 of 69 2 of 3 3 of 3 19 of 71 3 of 4 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 30 of 62 48% 22 of 54 3 of 3 5 of 5 28 of 60 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Big Brady favors Lauren Murphy to win by decision, believing she can stuff Roxanne Modafferi's takedowns and out-strike her on the feet. He notes Murphy's strong takedown defense and ability to get back up if taken down. He acknowledges Modafferi's recent wins as an underdog but thinks Murphy is the better striker and will land more shots.

odds: Modafferi minus 120, Murphy plus 100; pick by decision
"I do favor Murphy to win here I think she's going to be able to stuff the takedowns of Roxanne"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy, arguing that Modafferi is one-dimensional and relies on takedowns. He believes Murphy's improved aggression and takedown defense will be key. Levi notes that Murphy looked great against Andrea Lee and should be a slight favorite, not an underdog. He expects a close decision win for Murphy.

"My pick will be Lauren Murphy in this spot as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Roxanne Modafferi

Modafferi has better grappling and a reach advantage. She was winning against Barber before the injury. Murphy hasn't shown much. Modafferi will win by decision.

"I'm gonna go over rocks and mowed a ferry here the odds are really close and I don't understand why... motor ferry gets it done by decision"
WIN vs Andrea Lee
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · Feb 08, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 80 of 197 40% 107 of 228 2 of 4 50% 0 1 2:31
Andrea Lee 0 104 of 267 38% 107 of 271 0 of 3 0% 1 0 0:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 32 of 80 40% 33 of 82 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Andrea Lee 0 43 of 104 41% 44 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
2 Lauren Murphy 0 33 of 73 45% 41 of 84 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:22
Andrea Lee 0 38 of 103 36% 39 of 104 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Lauren Murphy 0 15 of 44 34% 33 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:40
Andrea Lee 0 23 of 60 38% 24 of 61 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 80 of 197 40% 70 of 181 9 of 15 1 of 1 75 of 190 5 of 7 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 104 of 267 38% 51 of 194 34 of 51 19 of 22 99 of 261 4 of 5 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 32 of 80 40% 28 of 74 4 of 6 0 of 0 31 of 77 1 of 3 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 43 of 104 41% 18 of 74 16 of 20 9 of 10 41 of 101 1 of 2 1 of 1
2 Lauren Murphy 33 of 73 45% 30 of 68 2 of 4 1 of 1 31 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 38 of 103 36% 21 of 77 11 of 20 6 of 6 38 of 103 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Lauren Murphy 15 of 44 34% 12 of 39 3 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 23 of 60 38% 12 of 43 7 of 11 4 of 6 20 of 57 3 of 3 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Andrea Lee

Daniel Levi picks Andrea Lee by decision, stating she is the better striker with more volume. He notes that Lauren Murphy has improved but still has a basic fighting style. He warns against betting at -365, but expects Lee to win a decision, possibly with close rounds.

I ain't laying -365 to find out
"I'm gonna go with Andrea Lee by decision but I would be very careful at the betting window"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

The host picks Andrea Lee by decision, citing her speed, striking, and improved grappling. He believes she is the quicker fighter and can outpoint Lauren Murphy, though he is not willing to bet her straight at -340. He considers her as a parlay piece with Jon Jones.

Lee by decision, considered as parlay piece with Jones
"I like and really here I think that she you know how to strike Lauren Murphy take it to the ground if she needs to I think if she does get caught up against the fence she'll have a decent …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

The MMA Guru picks Andrea Lee because she is younger, more technical, and will light up Lauren Murphy with combinations on the feet. He notes Murphy's questionable losses and expects Lee to win a unanimous decision.

unanimous decision win
"I'm gonna go with and really both girls similar-sized Laura Murphy a bit chunkier I feel like this fight is gonna take place on the feet and really younger in the game a little bit more technical I think she's …"
Miesha Tate - Fight History
LOSS vs Yana Santos
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yana Santos 0 66 of 117 56% 87 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:46
Miesha Tate 0 40 of 115 34% 108 of 204 1 of 7 14% 0 0 5:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yana Santos 0 31 of 61 50% 43 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Miesha Tate 0 22 of 55 40% 33 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:47
2 Yana Santos 0 31 of 44 70% 39 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Miesha Tate 0 13 of 43 30% 18 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
3 Yana Santos 0 4 of 12 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 5 of 17 29% 57 of 84 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yana Santos 66 of 117 56% 37 of 87 15 of 16 14 of 14 47 of 96 19 of 21 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 40 of 115 34% 25 of 88 8 of 17 7 of 10 29 of 100 8 of 10 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yana Santos 31 of 61 50% 14 of 44 9 of 9 8 of 8 19 of 47 12 of 14 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 22 of 55 40% 14 of 43 4 of 7 4 of 5 20 of 52 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Yana Santos 31 of 44 70% 20 of 33 6 of 6 5 of 5 24 of 37 7 of 7 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 13 of 43 30% 6 of 28 4 of 10 3 of 5 7 of 36 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Yana Santos 4 of 12 33% 3 of 10 0 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 5 of 17 29% 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Yana Santos

Angelo picks Yana Santos as the underdog, citing her superior striking and footwork. He believes Miesha Tate is one-dimensional and will struggle to get takedowns. He notes that Santos looked good in her last fight and that Tate has not evolved enough to compete. He also mentions a possible spread bet if available.

Interested in +3.5 spread if available
"Jana's the pick. The sport just passes some people by."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Big Brady picks Miesha Tate, citing a clear path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He notes that Yana Santos has poor takedown defense (42%) and looks bad on bottom, as seen against Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira. Despite Tate's age (38) and inconsistency, her ground game is strong with submissions and ground and pound. He predicts Tate will finish by second-round submission.

Round 2 submission
"I'm going to go Miesa Tate to win this fight. I'll take her to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Tate should take advantage of Santos's grappling shortcomings. She will mix up takedowns, get top control, and grind out a decision win.

"I believe we're going to see a great performance from Tate here as she should be able to take advantage of some of the grappling shortcomings in Santos's game."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate, stating that Yana Santos has shown an inability to do anything on the ground. He believes Tate's wrestling and experience will be enough to outwrestle Santos. He criticizes the state of women's bantamweight but expects Tate to get the win.

"I'm going to go with Misha Tate. She's a favorite as well. So actually it's not that crazy."
WIN vs Julia Avila
Submission (face crank) R3 1:15 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miesha Tate 0 32 of 37 86% 127 of 152 4 of 5 80% 1 0 10:55
Julia Avila 0 3 of 11 27% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miesha Tate 0 16 of 18 88% 50 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:54
Julia Avila 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Miesha Tate 0 16 of 18 88% 69 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:50
Julia Avila 0 2 of 7 28% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Miesha Tate 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 9 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:11
Julia Avila 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miesha Tate 32 of 37 86% 31 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 0 27 of 29
Julia Avila 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miesha Tate 16 of 18 88% 16 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 14
Julia Avila 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Miesha Tate 16 of 18 88% 15 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 15
Julia Avila 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Miesha Tate 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julia Avila 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Cody takes Tate as an underdog. He argues that Tate has fought much higher competition and even in losses she's competitive. He notes Avila's wins are over low-level opponents and she has poor takedown defense. He thinks Tate's experience and wrestling will be the difference, and that Avila's layoff and knee injury are concerns. He believes Tate's back class carries her.

"I will take that plus money on Misha Tate and think the back class carries are through here to get it done one last time"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Lucrative James leans towards Miesha Tate, citing intangibles such as Julia Avila's layoff after having a baby (possibly via C-section) and her previous gym issues. He believes Tate's grappling can neutralize Avila's striking, and that Avila's path to victory is on the feet. He suggests attacking props like Tate by decision rather than the moneyline.

Tate by decision
"I think Misha Tate has got some of the narrative and some of the intangibles going on on this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Tate is a former champion with a strong wrestling base, and she should be able to take Avila down and grind out a win. Avila is aggressive but lacks technical striking and has shown takedown defense issues. Both fighters are returning from long layoffs, but Tate's wrestling advantage and underdog odds make her a good value pick. The fight is expected to get easier for Tate in rounds two and three.

plus 125 underdog
"I think that she's a damn good Underdog spot on this card for two fighters that haven't really been active uh as of late"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Julia Avila

Paul sides with Avila, citing her strength and striking. He thinks Tate's motivation is questionable and that this could be a retirement fight. He notes Avila is the better striker and stronger, but acknowledges Tate's higher level of competition. He has a creeping suspicion that both fighters might retire after this.

"I'm going to side with Avala here I I have a creeping suspicion that this could be like if Avala wins both Fighters get the uh get the microphone at the end and there's some gloves down in the cage …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate as an underdog, noting her competitive fights against top competition like Ketlen Vieira and Lauren Murphy. He believes Julia Avila's inactivity and unimpressive last performance make Tate a live dog. He expects Tate to win by decision.

underdog, decision win
"I'm taking the underdog of Miesha Tate... she went to a pretty close fight with Ketlen Vieira... I'm going to go Miesha Tate as an underdog... win by decision."
LOSS vs Lauren Murphy
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 102 of 184 55% 128 of 211 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:18
Miesha Tate 0 85 of 164 51% 121 of 201 0 of 7 0% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 26 of 48 54% 35 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
Miesha Tate 0 25 of 47 53% 38 of 60 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:04
2 Lauren Murphy 0 38 of 66 57% 53 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:41
Miesha Tate 0 32 of 55 58% 46 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
3 Lauren Murphy 0 38 of 70 54% 40 of 72 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:05
Miesha Tate 0 28 of 62 45% 37 of 72 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 102 of 184 55% 77 of 154 24 of 29 1 of 1 68 of 142 31 of 39 3 of 3
Miesha Tate 85 of 164 51% 61 of 122 18 of 34 6 of 8 67 of 138 18 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 26 of 48 54% 17 of 37 9 of 11 0 of 0 15 of 33 11 of 15 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 25 of 47 53% 12 of 26 10 of 18 3 of 3 16 of 34 9 of 13 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 38 of 66 57% 31 of 57 6 of 8 1 of 1 26 of 52 9 of 11 3 of 3
Miesha Tate 32 of 55 58% 27 of 44 4 of 9 1 of 2 25 of 46 7 of 9 0 of 0
3 Lauren Murphy 38 of 70 54% 29 of 60 9 of 10 0 of 0 27 of 57 11 of 13 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 28 of 62 45% 22 of 52 4 of 7 2 of 3 26 of 58 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Angelo picks Miesha Tate but is hesitant due to her flyweight debut. He believes Tate's wrestling and grappling will be key, and that she can avoid being bullied by Murphy. He notes Murphy's losses came via grappling dominance, and assumes Tate will be strong at 125. He is unsure about betting.

unsure about betting
"so i'm gonna go with misha tate here anybody complaining that she's a little old she's 35 she's a younger fighter in this matchup so misha tate one big brother and i think she's gonna win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by decision. He notes that Tate is the more skilled fighter overall and can get takedowns to control the fight on the mat. He is not impressed by Murphy's wins and thinks the striking will be competitive. He says he would not bet Tate at -220 odds but picks her to win.

decision win; odds comment: minus 220 too high
"i'll take misha tate but minus 220. there's no way i would touch that but gimishita misha tate bye decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Cody picks Tate, citing her wrestling advantage, strength, and experience. He notes that Tate has been preparing for this fight for a long time and has been in great shape. He believes Tate's clinch work and takedowns will be too much for Murphy, and that Murphy's only path is to bully Tate, which he doubts she can do.

"i gotta go with cupcake tate i know that you haven't eight minus one five"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Daniel Levi leans Miesha Tate but expresses disinterest in the fight. He notes Tate is past her prime and coming off a loss, while Murphy is coming off a title fight loss and has health issues. He considers it a dog-or-pass situation and won't lay the -220 price on Tate.

dog-or-pass; not laying the chalk
"i'll say it's dog or pass at the betting window you know with a price like that i'll lean misha tate"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Paul leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing the uncertainty of Tate's weight cut to 125 and the fact that Murphy is a natural 125er. He notes that Murphy has decent striking and could potentially outwork Tate. However, he admits he is not confident and will wait until weigh-ins before betting.

"i think it's a very very clear dogger pass lauren murphy for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Lauren Murphy, criticizing Murphy's lack of skill and Tate's experience. He believes Tate will win grappling exchanges and has slightly better striking. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Tate, with Tate winning the first two rounds clearly before slowing down due to weight cut.

"i'm gonna go with misha tate here lauren murphy has no idea what she's doing she's terrible at fighting"
LOSS vs Ketlen Vieira
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · Nov 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ketlen Vieira 0 113 of 263 42% 156 of 313 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Miesha Tate 0 122 of 276 44% 145 of 302 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ketlen Vieira 0 14 of 38 36% 18 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 13 of 38 34% 16 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:52
2 Ketlen Vieira 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 21 of 54 38% 21 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ketlen Vieira 0 20 of 55 36% 28 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 24 of 57 42% 26 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
4 Ketlen Vieira 0 20 of 43 46% 50 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Miesha Tate 0 31 of 54 57% 44 of 70 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:34
5 Ketlen Vieira 0 30 of 73 41% 31 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 33 of 73 45% 38 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ketlen Vieira 113 of 263 42% 95 of 243 14 of 16 4 of 4 105 of 254 8 of 9 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 122 of 276 44% 52 of 175 60 of 88 10 of 13 110 of 260 12 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ketlen Vieira 14 of 38 36% 12 of 36 1 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 36 1 of 2 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 13 of 38 34% 8 of 24 4 of 11 1 of 3 13 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Ketlen Vieira 29 of 54 53% 24 of 48 2 of 3 3 of 3 29 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 21 of 54 38% 14 of 42 6 of 10 1 of 2 21 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ketlen Vieira 20 of 55 36% 18 of 52 2 of 3 0 of 0 20 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 24 of 57 42% 4 of 28 15 of 24 5 of 5 21 of 54 3 of 3 0 of 0
4 Ketlen Vieira 20 of 43 46% 16 of 39 4 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 38 5 of 5 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 31 of 54 57% 8 of 27 21 of 25 2 of 2 24 of 45 7 of 9 0 of 0
5 Ketlen Vieira 30 of 73 41% 25 of 68 5 of 5 0 of 0 28 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 33 of 73 45% 18 of 54 14 of 18 1 of 1 31 of 70 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ketlen Vieira vs. Miesha Tate

Round 1
At long last, we have reached the main event. It’s been a journey tonight. Vieira (11-2, 5-2 UFC) will try to get back in the win column against former champ Tate (19-7, 6-4 UFC). The cage commander for this final fight of the night is referee Jason Herzog, and both with an eye on a crack at the bantamweight belt in the future touch hands to start things out. Vieira captures the center of the cage in the early going, but they keep a very safe range from the other to not land punches or kicks. They take turns following the other, until Vieira sits down with a right hand to smack Tate in the face. Tate tries to jab the body a few times, and Vieira is there to pop her with a left hand over the top. Tate swings, misses, and gets countered by the Brazilian. Vieira sticks out a crisp jab, and her range is giving Tate pause at how to get in on her. When Tate jumps forward into a one-two, Vieira swats it out of the way and dances back when Tate aims a kick at her leg. Tate appears jittery as she hops back and forth to try to get in on Vieira, throwing a single front kick to the body. Vieira tags Tate with a right hand when Tate closes in on her, and the former champ lands a pair of successful punches. Caught celebrating her work a little too long, Vieira counters her with heavier blows before Tate can escape. The distance between the two is vast, and Tate resorts to staggering and stutter-stepping her way in. Tate chases Vieira down and slugs her in the face with a combination, and when Vieira tries to answer her with strikes of her own, Tate ties her up and presses her into the wall. Although Vieira separates, Tate knees her once to the body. Tate ducks a punch combination to push Vieira back into the wire, and like before, Vieira is able to separate without issue. From a distance, Vieira shoots in for a takedown, and Tate is able to stop it from succeeding. They end the round in an awkward position with Tate’s hand on her foe’s backside.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate

Round 2
A tense exchange begins the second round, and Vieira lands cleanly on Tate’s left eye, forcing some reddening and immediate swelling. Tate pays it no mind as she kicks Vieira in the head, but it is only a glancing blow as the Brazilian rolls with it. Tate keeps reaching out to try to get in on her opponent, and she eats a Vieira punch so that she can score a solid right hand. The former champ plants the fall of her foot on Vieira’s torso, interrupting Vieira from landing a strike. Tate winds up with a stiff right hand, nailing Vieira and forcing her to reel. In response, Vieira scores a left hand down the pipe. Vieira chops at the leg, and they both start trading heavy leather in front of one another. Tate lands, and Vieira is stuck countering instead of leading the exchanges. This allows Tate to land on her first before replying. Tate connects with a big kick to Vieira’s face, and she sees that it has done some damage as she follows it with a chain of punches. Tate strings together a few one-twos, and Vieira shakes it off and lands her own thudding left hook on the side of Tate’s head. The woman formerly known as “Takedown” attempts one in the open cage, and Vieira stuffs it without issue. She tries again, and Vieira stops that one as well and separates. Tate walks Vieira down with kicks and punches, while not appearing too worried about the single counters that come back at her. Tate scores with a pair of clean right hands, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate

Round 3
Tate comes out firing to start off the second round, surprising the Brazilian early with a short blitz of blows. Backing away before the counters follow suit, Tate changes things up with an inside leg kick and then one on the outside. Vieira leans into a left hand, and after a lull in the action, Tate reaches out with a left hand to stop a punch and she pokes Vieira square in the eyeball. Herzog acknowledges this and brings in the doctor, and after a minute to clear things out, Vieira is ready to go again. Tate wants to capitalize on this accident by chasing Vieira down with jabs and follow-up right hands. Tate keeps a low stance, and she punches the body while Vieira is sitting firmly on counters. Tate punches, slips the response and jabs out again. Tate gives chase, and a big right hand gets caught under Vieira’s armpit. Tate lands a right, tries to clinch up and eats a short right hand for her effort. Tate goes up high with a kick, and when it collides off of Vieira’s guard, Vieira aims a right hand down the middle. Tate advances, and Vieira swings a pair of looping hooks to keep Tate honest. The former champ lands a single strike, while Vieira’s prepared counter of an uppercut and a right hand knocks Tate back. The Brazilian lands cleanly in another exchange, forcing Tate to change levels and pursue a takedown. Vieira defends it well and separates without going down to her knees. When Vieira gets up, Tate meets her outstretched leg with a kick, and Vieira lances her with a right hand in a sharp retort. Tate rushes forward to clinch her up to end the round, and she holds on to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 4
They meet and touch gloves in the center of the cage to initiate the championship rounds. Tate starts off aggressively, chasing her opponent down and landing punches. Tate clubs her opponent with a crisp right hand, and she escapes when Vieira sets up a counter. The Brazilian lands a few punches from a distance, and they trade heavily suddenly. Tate mixes things up with a takedown attempt, and she finally hits it and gets Vieira down. As “Fenomeno” stands up, Tate takes her back and looks to hit a mat return by tripping Vieira down. Clinched up, Tate gives up on the takedown entry so that she can land short strikes to the body and head. Staying tight keeps Tate away from eating any counters, and she presses her full body weight on her opponent that had never before fought beyond the third round. Vieira grits her teeth and pushes Tate away, and she starts lunging out with jabs. Tate marks her up with a big punch, and Vieira blasts her right back. Both women wear it well, and Tate kicks Vieira in the body from afar. Tate lands a few punches before coming in to clinch, and she knees Vieira in the body once. Vieira gives several punches back to the midsection, until Tate has had enough of that and pushes away. A Tate leg kick is met with a straight left hand, and Vieira catches Tate coming in with a string of punches. Vieira loads up on a right hand, and she elbows Tate when Tate tries to clinch. Vieira welcomes the clinch again in the open cage, as she repeatedly punches Tate in the side as she did before. Tate holds on tight with a clinch, and she releases a knee to the head. Another knee scores for the former champ, who ends the round in the Thai clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate

Round 5
The bantamweights touch hands and then come in to hug to commence the last round. Vieira lets her hands go when they start fighting, and she connects cleanly with power punches as Tate looks to be safe. They come together in a clinch, and Tate works the body before Vieira separates. Vieira tags her opponent with an uppercut and a left hand, and Tate is forced to back off and gather her thoughts. When she does, the ex-champ kicks the body and then tries to get a knee off to the chest. Tate kicks the body, but Vieira is there to bang with her as she starts throwing hard. As Tate backs off, Vieira leans on a long jab, and she busts Tate’s nose open with a powerful knee and a few punches up top. Tate misses on one-twos as Vieira appears to be the fresher, more composed woman right now. Tate springs back and forth, jabbing out but not throwing nearly as much as she did before the nose got cracked. Tate sneaks a right hand over the top, but Vieira throws three back at her that are much heavier. They trade single jabs, and Tate steps forward into a one-two that knocks Vieira back. Vieira returns fire with jabs that continue to pound into Tate’s bloodied nose, and the former champion’s face has transformed into a crimson mask. Hardly recognizable, Tate does not care, as she continues to swing punches while Vieira is tight and crisp with her boxing. The jabs have shut Tate’s left eye as well as making her nose bleed furiously, and Tate marches on and kicks her in the side. Tate continues to pour it on as Vieira stays on her bicycle, successfully scoring with laser-accurate strikes that barely register for Tate. The fight comes to an end after 25 minutes of action, and it could be anyone’s guess who wins this fight based on how close most of the rounds were. UFC Fight Night 198, and a consecutive weekend stretch of 10 UFC cards, comes to an end with an event that brought 10 decisions in 11 bouts. We all could use a week off, and we will have it. When the UFC returns in December, it will be on ESPN for U.S. audiences with a barnburner of a main event between Rob Font and Jose Aldo. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Vieira)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Vieira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Tate)

The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Miesha Tate via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Angelo picks Ketlen Vieira, citing her power, size, and solid takedown defense (92%). He notes Miesha Tate's striking is poor and she relies on takedowns, but Vieira has stuffed takedowns from Olympic wrestler Sarah McMahon. He expects Vieira to win by decision or late stoppage, and placed a moneyline bet at even money (+100). He also mentions live betting opportunities.

Moneyline bet at +100, 1 unit; DraftKings price 7900; monkey knife fight more/more; mentions live betting if Tate has takedown success early
"caitlyn is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by late finish (4th or 5th round). He notes that Ketlen Vieira has never fought five rounds and tends to slow down in the third round, as seen in fights against Eubanks and Kanutsukai. He believes Tate's improved striking and wrestling will allow her to survive early and take over as Vieira fades. He sees a late stoppage as very live.

win by TKO or submission, fourth or fifth round
"I'm gonna take misha tate to win give me like a fourth or fifth round late late round uh later on stoppage here for tate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Cody believes Miesha Tate is undervalued as a slight underdog. He points to Tate's championship pedigree, improved striking, and excellent conditioning for a five-round fight. He highlights Ketlen Vieira's history of gassing in the third round of her fights, including against Yana Kunitskaya where she was out-struck 44-7. Cody argues that Tate's wrestling is good enough to stuff takedowns and that if the fight stays standing, Tate has the advantage. He expects Tate to take over in rounds four and five as Vieira fades.

"what am i missing here paul like what i don't under 100 and understand why uh it's misha tate's slight underdog status versus ket and vieira"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Daniel Levi picks Ketlen Vieira despite her history of mental lapses and cardio issues. He notes that Vieira has superior skills across the board, including judo and power, but worries about her hitting a wall in later rounds. He believes Miesha Tate is stiff and slow, and that Vieira has no pressure on her in this fight. However, he acknowledges Tate's toughness and comeback ability, making this a hesitant pick.

"i think vieira's the better fighter honestly across the board... i'm gonna go with kellen vieira she's been very quiet very business business-minded approach this week"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Miesha Tate

Lock sees this as a classic early Vera vs late Tate fight. He thinks Vera gasses badly after round two, and Tate will take over with takedowns and top control. He notes Tate is hunting a finish and might get it late. Lock likes the under 4.5 rounds at +140 and Tate inside the distance at +375. He also sprinkled Tate round 4 and round 5 props.

Under 4.5 rounds +140, Miesha Tate inside the distance +375, Miesha Tate round 4 +2500, Miesha Tate round 5 +3000, Ketlen Vieira by KO +600
"I like the under four and a half at plus 140ish... I think those takedowns will come a little bit easier for tate as the fight wears on."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting that Vieira's gas tank is a major concern, especially in a five-round fight. He references the Yana Kunitskaya fight where Vieira missed weight and gassed hard at the end of round three. Paul believes that if Vieira cannot put Tate away early, Tate will take over late. He also mentions that this could be a good live bet opportunity if Vieira slows down in round three and Tate is still available at plus money.

Paul mentions this could be an even better live bet if we get into round three and Vieira starts slowing down; he notes Tate was plus money (-105) at DraftKings.
"i'm gonna have some money on misha tape straight up but i feel like potentially this could be an even better live bet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Ketlen Vieira. He notes that Vieira slows down in later rounds, as seen against Yana Kunitskaya and Sijara Eubanks. He highlights Tate's championship experience, composure, and conditioning. He expects a stalemate on the feet early, but Tate to win scrambles and land ground and pound in the later rounds, finishing with a fourth-round TKO.

fourth round TKO via ground and pound
"i'm going with misha tate as the favorite here i reckon she's got this one in the bag"
WIN vs Marion Reneau
TKO (punches) R3 1:53 · UFC on ESPN: Makhachev vs. Moises · Jul 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miesha Tate 0 25 of 64 39% 48 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marion Reneau 0 65 of 120 54% 110 of 183 3 of 6 50% 0 0 5:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miesha Tate 0 15 of 37 40% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marion Reneau 0 25 of 43 58% 34 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:36
2 Miesha Tate 0 8 of 18 44% 16 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marion Reneau 0 22 of 40 55% 45 of 64 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:01
3 Miesha Tate 0 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marion Reneau 0 18 of 37 48% 31 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miesha Tate 25 of 64 39% 16 of 54 7 of 8 2 of 2 15 of 49 7 of 9 3 of 6
Marion Reneau 65 of 120 54% 44 of 93 16 of 20 5 of 7 32 of 74 8 of 8 25 of 38
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miesha Tate 15 of 37 40% 8 of 29 5 of 6 2 of 2 7 of 26 6 of 8 2 of 3
Marion Reneau 25 of 43 58% 15 of 31 9 of 10 1 of 2 19 of 37 5 of 5 1 of 1
2 Miesha Tate 8 of 18 44% 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 3
Marion Reneau 22 of 40 55% 15 of 29 3 of 6 4 of 5 8 of 25 0 of 0 14 of 15
3 Miesha Tate 2 of 9 22% 1 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marion Reneau 18 of 37 48% 14 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 12 3 of 3 10 of 22
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Cody is confident in Miesha Tate despite the five-year layoff, citing her excellent physical shape and the fact that Marion Reneau is on a four-fight losing streak and has announced her retirement. He believes Tate's wrestling and grappling will be the difference, and he is surprised the odds are not wider. He acknowledges the red flags but thinks the matchup is favorable.

"Miesha Tate I got it like minus 122 I think minus 135 is still more than fair in this spot."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul expresses significant doubts about Miesha Tate's return, citing the five-year layoff, her split with longtime coach Brian Caraway, and her lackluster performances before retiring. He notes that Marion Reneau is durable and has experience, but ultimately he has no confidence in either fighter and passes on betting the fight. He does not make a clear pick.

"I have no confidence on the fight okay so just because dude he just talked about mirror no having a shot doesn't matter okay I'm just either pass."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor · Nov 12, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 21 of 65 32% 48 of 93 1 of 5 20% 0 0 4:26
Miesha Tate 0 43 of 77 55% 111 of 156 1 of 1 100% 3 0 6:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 7 of 29 24% 12 of 34 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:35
Miesha Tate 0 8 of 21 38% 14 of 27 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:20
2 Raquel Pennington 0 13 of 32 40% 26 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:36
Miesha Tate 0 24 of 37 64% 55 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:57
3 Raquel Pennington 0 1 of 4 25% 10 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Miesha Tate 0 11 of 19 57% 42 of 55 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 21 of 65 32% 8 of 34 11 of 28 2 of 3 11 of 47 10 of 18 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 43 of 77 55% 31 of 65 8 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 46 13 of 15 11 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 7 of 29 24% 2 of 13 3 of 13 2 of 3 7 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 8 of 21 38% 7 of 20 0 of 0 1 of 1 8 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 13 of 32 40% 5 of 17 8 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 14 10 of 18 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 24 of 37 64% 16 of 29 8 of 8 0 of 0 11 of 22 13 of 15 0 of 0
3 Raquel Pennington 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 11 of 19 57% 8 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 3 0 of 0 11 of 16
LOSS vs Amanda Nunes
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:16 · UFC 200: Tate vs. Nunes · Jul 09, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 0 3 of 15 20% 3 of 15 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 40 of 63 63% 40 of 63 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 0 3 of 15 20% 3 of 15 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 40 of 63 63% 40 of 63 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 3 of 15 20% 2 of 12 1 of 2 0 of 1 3 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 40 of 63 63% 35 of 54 3 of 5 2 of 4 30 of 50 3 of 5 7 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 3 of 15 20% 2 of 12 1 of 2 0 of 1 3 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 40 of 63 63% 35 of 54 3 of 5 2 of 4 30 of 50 3 of 5 7 of 8
WIN vs Holly Holm
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R5 3:30 · UFC 196: McGregor vs. Diaz · Mar 05, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miesha Tate 0 59 of 142 41% 68 of 151 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Holly Holm 0 40 of 104 38% 65 of 132 2 of 9 22% 2 0 5:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miesha Tate 0 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Holly Holm 0 7 of 27 25% 7 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Miesha Tate 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Holly Holm 0 11 of 18 61% 29 of 36 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:30
3 Miesha Tate 0 13 of 41 31% 13 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Holly Holm 0 7 of 23 30% 8 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Miesha Tate 0 14 of 40 35% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Holly Holm 0 7 of 22 31% 12 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
5 Miesha Tate 0 17 of 31 54% 18 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Holly Holm 0 8 of 14 57% 9 of 16 1 of 3 33% 1 0 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miesha Tate 59 of 142 41% 35 of 109 16 of 21 8 of 12 57 of 139 2 of 3 0 of 0
Holly Holm 40 of 104 38% 29 of 83 7 of 12 4 of 9 26 of 88 4 of 4 10 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miesha Tate 14 of 28 50% 8 of 19 5 of 5 1 of 4 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Holly Holm 7 of 27 25% 7 of 23 0 of 2 0 of 2 6 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Miesha Tate 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Holly Holm 11 of 18 61% 10 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 12
3 Miesha Tate 13 of 41 31% 9 of 35 2 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Holly Holm 7 of 23 30% 3 of 16 2 of 3 2 of 4 7 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Miesha Tate 14 of 40 35% 8 of 30 3 of 6 3 of 4 12 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
Holly Holm 7 of 22 31% 6 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Miesha Tate 17 of 31 54% 10 of 24 5 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0
Holly Holm 8 of 14 57% 3 of 8 3 of 4 2 of 2 7 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Angelo picks Miesha Tate but is hesitant due to her flyweight debut. He believes Tate's wrestling and grappling will be key, and that she can avoid being bullied by Murphy. He notes Murphy's losses came via grappling dominance, and assumes Tate will be strong at 125. He is unsure about betting.

unsure about betting
"so i'm gonna go with misha tate here anybody complaining that she's a little old she's 35 she's a younger fighter in this matchup so misha tate one big brother and i think she's gonna win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by decision. He notes that Tate is the more skilled fighter overall and can get takedowns to control the fight on the mat. He is not impressed by Murphy's wins and thinks the striking will be competitive. He says he would not bet Tate at -220 odds but picks her to win.

decision win; odds comment: minus 220 too high
"i'll take misha tate but minus 220. there's no way i would touch that but gimishita misha tate bye decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Cody picks Tate, citing her wrestling advantage, strength, and experience. He notes that Tate has been preparing for this fight for a long time and has been in great shape. He believes Tate's clinch work and takedowns will be too much for Murphy, and that Murphy's only path is to bully Tate, which he doubts she can do.

"i gotta go with cupcake tate i know that you haven't eight minus one five"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Daniel Levi leans Miesha Tate but expresses disinterest in the fight. He notes Tate is past her prime and coming off a loss, while Murphy is coming off a title fight loss and has health issues. He considers it a dog-or-pass situation and won't lay the -220 price on Tate.

dog-or-pass; not laying the chalk
"i'll say it's dog or pass at the betting window you know with a price like that i'll lean misha tate"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Paul leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing the uncertainty of Tate's weight cut to 125 and the fact that Murphy is a natural 125er. He notes that Murphy has decent striking and could potentially outwork Tate. However, he admits he is not confident and will wait until weigh-ins before betting.

"i think it's a very very clear dogger pass lauren murphy for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Lauren Murphy, criticizing Murphy's lack of skill and Tate's experience. He believes Tate will win grappling exchanges and has slightly better striking. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Tate, with Tate winning the first two rounds clearly before slowing down due to weight cut.

"i'm gonna go with misha tate here lauren murphy has no idea what she's doing she's terrible at fighting"