vs
+170 -174
UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022 · Featherweight · Completed
UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 11"
Reach 71"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 8"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Yair Rodríguez
4.65 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.78 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.71 TD Avg
29.0% TD Acc.
59.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Brian Ortega
3.84 SLpM
37.0% Str. Acc.
6.38 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
0.93 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
54.0% TD Def.
0.9 Sub. Avg
Yair Rodríguez
Moneyline
Caesars +170
KO/TKO
BetRivers +420
Submission
FanDuel +2600
Decision
FanDuel +380
Brian Ortega
Moneyline
FanDuel -174
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
BetRivers +200
Decision
FanDuel +330
Yair Rodríguez - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 1 70 of 122 57% 97 of 157 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:43
Patrício Pitbull 0 17 of 50 34% 23 of 60 1 of 4 25% 1 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 11 of 21 52% 26 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patrício Pitbull 0 4 of 10 40% 5 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 21 of 45 46% 25 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:02
Patrício Pitbull 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:28
3 Yair Rodríguez 1 38 of 56 67% 46 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Patrício Pitbull 0 5 of 14 35% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 70 of 122 57% 38 of 82 18 of 23 14 of 17 43 of 89 2 of 2 25 of 31
Patrício Pitbull 17 of 50 34% 8 of 38 2 of 4 7 of 8 17 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 11 of 21 52% 3 of 10 4 of 5 4 of 6 10 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patrício Pitbull 4 of 10 40% 0 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 4 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Yair Rodríguez 21 of 45 46% 8 of 28 6 of 9 7 of 8 20 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patrício Pitbull 8 of 26 30% 5 of 21 1 of 2 2 of 3 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Yair Rodríguez 38 of 56 67% 27 of 44 8 of 9 3 of 3 13 of 25 0 of 0 25 of 31
Patrício Pitbull 5 of 14 35% 3 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Connor picks Rodríguez, echoing Zane's reasoning about Pitbull's vulnerability to aggressive strikers. He notes that Pitbull has struggled against fighters who pressure him early and that Rodríguez's length and kicking game pose unique problems. Connor acknowledges Pitbull's experience and ability to adjust between fights but believes Rodríguez's style is a bad matchup for the current version of Pitbull.

"I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez. I think I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez too."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Yair Rodríguez

Daniel Levi states that Yair Rodríguez schooled Patrício Pitbull, being much faster and more dynamic, and was a couple steps ahead all night. He notes that Pitbull looked shopworn and didn't shine in the big moment.

"Yaya Rodriguez just schooled Patricio Pitu and you know on tape it was there but sometimes you hold out hope that these legends are going to have you know they're going to shine bright in a big moment like that …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Lucrative James picks Patrício Pitbull to win, citing his experience, grappling advantage, and power. He believes Pitbull's wrestling and top control will be key, and he expects him to submit or ground-and-pound Rodríguez. He acknowledges Rodríguez's flashy kicks and danger but thinks Pitbull's cerebral style and veteran savvy will prevail. He notes that Pitbull is 37 and may be past his prime, but he still sees him as the better fighter overall. He also thinks the UFC is setting Pitbull up for a win to inject new blood into the division.

He predicts Pitbull wins inside the distance, possibly via submission or ground and pound.
"I'm predicting Patricio Pitbull to get the win on Yay Rodriguez. And I'm actually predicting him to get the win inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Zane picks Rodríguez, citing Pitbull's history of losing to aggressive, high-output fighters who take the initiative early. He notes that Pitbull has become a patient counter-puncher, which plays into Rodríguez's strengths as a long-range striker with dynamic kicks. Zane points to Pitbull's recent loss to Chihiro Suzuki as evidence that he can be overwhelmed by a powerful, wild striker. He acknowledges Pitbull's grappling and experience but believes Rodríguez's reach and willingness to attack from distance will be decisive.

"I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez. I think I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez too."
LOSS vs Brian Ortega
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 0:58 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brian Ortega 1 55 of 115 47% 64 of 135 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:32
Yair Rodríguez 0 28 of 73 38% 47 of 104 3 of 6 50% 1 0 5:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brian Ortega 1 45 of 91 49% 50 of 102 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:32
Yair Rodríguez 0 6 of 28 21% 7 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:42
2 Brian Ortega 0 9 of 17 52% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yair Rodríguez 0 22 of 44 50% 39 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:55
3 Brian Ortega 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yair Rodríguez 0 0 of 1 0% 1 of 4 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brian Ortega 55 of 115 47% 36 of 91 11 of 15 8 of 9 34 of 86 9 of 12 12 of 17
Yair Rodríguez 28 of 73 38% 26 of 69 2 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 50 2 of 3 13 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brian Ortega 45 of 91 49% 28 of 69 10 of 14 7 of 8 24 of 62 9 of 12 12 of 17
Yair Rodríguez 6 of 28 21% 5 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brian Ortega 9 of 17 52% 7 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yair Rodríguez 22 of 44 50% 21 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 21 2 of 3 13 of 20
3 Brian Ortega 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yair Rodríguez 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Angelo picks Ortega with low confidence, citing the first fight where Ortega was winning before his shoulder injury. He notes the elevation and crowd in Mexico could favor Rodriguez, but trusts his brain over his gut. He worries about Ortega's long layoff but believes he can squeak out a win.

"I think Brian Orga can win this fight I am split though my brain and my gut are saying two different things"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Big Brady picks Yair Rodríguez to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Rodríguez has been more active and looked impressive against Josh Emmett, while Ortega has had a long layoff. He believes Rodríguez has the advantage on the feet with his kicks and power, and that Ortega is hittable. He doubts Ortega's wrestling will be effective, as Rodríguez stuffed takedowns in their first fight. He expects Rodríguez to dominate at range and eventually finish Ortega.

Rodríguez wins by KO in round 3
"I got to go Yer here um I think he's going to be able to stuff a lot of these takedowns Ortega's never really had the best wrestling and on the feed I just kind of think it's one-way traffic …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Cody picks Ortega, noting that in their first fight Ortega was winning before the shoulder injury. He believes Ortega's skills haven't digressed, his jiu-jitsu is second to none, and his wrestling is good enough to take down Rodriguez. He also mentions Ortega's ability to come back better after layoffs, as he did after the Holloway loss. He considers the plus 130 price good value.

"I'll take the dog Bri Orga nice"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

The host recalls the first fight where Rodríguez kept Ortega at bay with striking and Ortega's only success was a clinch takedown that led to an injury. He believes Rodríguez needs to keep the fight standing, and even if it goes to the ground, Rodríguez has worked on his jiu-jitsu to defend and get back to his feet. He predicts Rodríguez will finish Ortega by the third round.

Finish by third round
"Rodriguez really needs to keep this fight in the Striking real otherwise Ortega can utilize the one advantage he normally holds in his matchup and that's what his submission game but it's clear Rodriguez has been working on his Jiu-Jitsu …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Paul is leaning towards Ortega but is hesitant due to the year-and-a-half layoff, Ortega's age (33), and his recent record (lost last two, hasn't finished in six years). However, he acknowledges Ortega matched up well in the first fight and has the skills to win. He says if he had a gun to his head he'd pick Ortega, but it's a wild card pick.

"yeah like want to pick Ortega think I might pick Ortega if I got a gun to my head take a couple underdogs on this card Ortega certainly is one that is looking appealing"
TKO (punches) R3 4:19 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkanovski 0 66 of 97 68% 149 of 198 7 of 12 58% 0 0 7:13
Yair Rodríguez 0 40 of 80 50% 57 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkanovski 0 11 of 15 73% 49 of 58 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:22
Yair Rodríguez 0 5 of 9 55% 10 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkanovski 0 18 of 25 72% 55 of 75 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:33
Yair Rodríguez 0 12 of 19 63% 24 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Volkanovski 0 37 of 57 64% 45 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Yair Rodríguez 0 23 of 52 44% 23 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkanovski 66 of 97 68% 48 of 69 4 of 5 14 of 23 25 of 45 4 of 6 37 of 46
Yair Rodríguez 40 of 80 50% 13 of 49 11 of 14 16 of 17 38 of 77 0 of 0 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkanovski 11 of 15 73% 9 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 4 2 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 11
Yair Rodríguez 5 of 9 55% 1 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 4 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Alexander Volkanovski 18 of 25 72% 15 of 19 1 of 1 2 of 5 4 of 10 1 of 1 13 of 14
Yair Rodríguez 12 of 19 63% 4 of 10 5 of 6 3 of 3 11 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Alexander Volkanovski 37 of 57 64% 24 of 39 3 of 4 10 of 14 19 of 31 3 of 5 15 of 21
Yair Rodríguez 23 of 52 44% 8 of 35 5 of 7 10 of 10 23 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Angelo is confident in Volkanovski, calling the -400 odds appropriate. He highlights Volkanovski's speed, kick usage, takedowns, and strength, and notes his performance against Islam Makhachev. He thinks Volkanovski will control the pace, mix in takedowns, and keep Rodríguez on the back foot, preventing his wild striking. He acknowledges Rodríguez's danger but believes Volkanovski is on another level.

"Alex is the pick he's sitting at like minus 400 and that feels very appropriate to me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by late stoppage (fourth round). He notes that Volkanovski is the better striker with more volume and better defense, and he has a huge advantage in wrestling and ground and pound. He points out that Rodríguez has poor takedown defense and no answers off his back, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar, Jeremy Stephens, Max Holloway, and Josh Emmett. He believes Volkanovski will take Rodríguez down, beat him up, and get a doctor stoppage or TKO in the later rounds.

fourth round stoppage (TKO/doctor stoppage)
"give me Alexander volkanovski and still I think he finishes Yaya Rodriguez late in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Cody picks Volkanovski to retain, citing his durability, cardio, and submission defense. He notes Yair's danger with unorthodox strikes but believes Volk's constant pressure and takedowns will be decisive. He mentions Volk's training with Blood Diamond to mimic Yair's style. He leans toward Volk by decision but wouldn't be surprised by a stoppage.

Volkanovski by decision (+120), inside distance (+160), over rounds, significant strikes over 135.5, takedowns over 3
"I gotta go with the King Alexander volkonowski to retain"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Connor picks Volkanovski, emphasizing his championship quality and preparation. He acknowledges Yair's danger, especially his kicking game and durability, but believes Volkanovski's pressure and wrestling will be decisive. Connor notes that Volkanovski's ability to take Yair down and control him on the ground is the path to victory.

"You pretty much have to pick Volkanovski. Yeah, because he's Volkanovski."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Daniel Levi picks Volkanovski, citing his elite fainting game, ability to out-jab taller opponents, and superior boxing in close range. He notes Volkanovski's takedown of Islam Makhachev as evidence of his wrestling prowess, which he believes will be a key advantage against Yair's suspect takedown defense. Levi acknowledges Yair's unique kicking arsenal and the head-kick KO history of Volkanovski, but expects Volkanovski's pressure and cardio to take over as the fight progresses. He also mentions that Yair's energy-intensive style may lead to a slowdown in later rounds.

"I'm picking Volk."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Alexander Volkanovski

James picks Volkanovski to win by ground-and-pound, likely in rounds 3 or 4. He believes Volkanovski's superior fight IQ and grappling advantage will be decisive. He notes Rodríguez has clear deficiencies on the ground and Volkanovski has heavy ground-and-pound. He also mentions the weight cut factor for Volkanovski moving back down, but still favors him. He does not advocate betting the moneyline at -400, but likes the inside distance prop.

Volkanovski wins inside the distance; fight doesn't go to decision
"official prediction vulcanovski via Grand and pound round four round three"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is the more polished and disciplined fighter with excellent striking defense, movement, and wrestling. Rodriguez has flashy striking and an active guard, but has been broken before. Volkanovski will close distance, land takedowns, and control the fight, likely winning by decision. He is a safe parlay piece.

parlay
"I think just taking his chalky spot throwing it into a parlay is not a bad way to go about it."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Paul agrees with Cody, stating it's tough to go against Volk at 145. He highlights Volk's ability to win on volume or by mixing in wrestling, and his proven submission defense. He mentions Volk's training with Blood Diamond to mimic Yair. He says he'll likely include Volk in parlays but won't place a serious wager.

Volkanovski by decision (+120), inside distance (+160), over rounds, significant strikes over 135.5, takedowns over 3
"could not back Volk I mean I don't know if I'm gonna back him with my pocket but the guy's just good everywhere"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by fourth-round TKO. He acknowledges Rodríguez's dangerous striking but doubts his finishing ability, calling his ground and pound pathetic. He believes Volkanovski's leg kicks and pressure will disrupt Rodríguez's flow, and that Volkanovski's top game in later rounds will be decisive. He notes that Holloway already handled Rodríguez on the ground.

wins by TKO in the fourth round
"I'm gonna go with vulcanov skin round four TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Zane picks Volkanovski, citing his pressure wrestling and ability to exploit Yair's defensive flaws. He notes that Volkanovski's wrestling will be key to neutralizing Yair's kicking game and that Yair's stamina flags under grappling pressure. Zane expects Volkanovski to take Yair down and grind him out, possibly with a late TKO.

Volkanovski by TKO in round 4 or later at 35%
"I think assuming Volkanovski pressures again, you have to pick him."
WIN vs Josh Emmett
Submission (triangle choke) R2 4:19 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 62 of 107 57% 98 of 143 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 22 of 52 42% 35 of 72 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 26 of 53 49% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 12 of 26 46% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:27
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 36 of 54 66% 66 of 84 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 10 of 26 38% 17 of 34 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 62 of 107 57% 36 of 76 18 of 22 8 of 9 47 of 87 7 of 9 8 of 11
Josh Emmett 22 of 52 42% 17 of 44 4 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 40 1 of 2 8 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 26 of 53 49% 14 of 39 7 of 9 5 of 5 21 of 44 1 of 2 4 of 7
Josh Emmett 12 of 26 46% 10 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 15 1 of 2 7 of 9
2 Yair Rodríguez 36 of 54 66% 22 of 37 11 of 13 3 of 4 26 of 43 6 of 7 4 of 4
Josh Emmett 10 of 26 38% 7 of 20 2 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Angelo picks Josh Emmett, citing his power and wrestling base, though he notes Emmett doesn't use his wrestling often. He believes Emmett's power will be the difference, especially if he can stay close and grind. He acknowledges Yair's creativity and athleticism but thinks Emmett's power and pressure will win. He has a half-unit bet on Emmett at +135.

"Emmett's the pick and I do have a half a unit on him at plus 135"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Big Brady thinks this is a close fight and picks Emmett for the upset. He notes Emmett's power and volume, and thinks Emmett will have the bigger moments. He expects a decision win for Emmett, similar to the Kattar fight, and says the line should be closer.

"I'm gonna pick Josh Emmett here for the upset win I'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Cody picks Rodríguez but is not confident due to Rodríguez's inconsistency. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway with improved cardio and kicking volume, but Emmett has power and wrestling he doesn't use offensively. He thinks Emmett's path is a big shot, but Rodríguez's chin and volume should edge him out. He finds the -175 line unappealing and won't bet it.

"I just think yeah Rodriguez pulls out with it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Connor picks Rodríguez, citing his diverse kicking game and durability as key factors. He notes that Emmett's style is one-dimensional and that Rodríguez can attack from range with kicks, which Emmett struggles to check. Connor also mentions that Emmett's wrestling is not a reliable threat, as he rarely uses it. He believes Rodríguez's toughness and ability to absorb punches will allow him to outwork Emmett over three rounds.

"I also favor yahir. I this was one that kind of threw me because I looked at it and i'm like oh josh emmett's a better fighter than yahir rodriguez... This is not a good fight for josh emmett."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Emmett's power punching and forward pressure will be too much for Rodríguez as the fight goes on. Rodríguez slows down in later rounds, as seen against Jeremy Stephens. Emmett has great cardio and defensive wrestling to keep it standing. He will close the distance and land big combinations, likely finishing in the fourth or fifth round. Rodríguez's unorthodox striking may be competitive early, but Emmett's durability and pressure will take over.

"I think Josh Sherman will get closer and closer with those big punches and it's going to continue to demoralize Yaya Rodriguez and I think just slowly but surely Josh Yemen is going to get closer and closer to eventually …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Paul slightly favors Rodríguez on volume, noting Emmett has a power advantage but Rodríguez has better durability. He expects a close competitive fight and thinks the line is accurate, so he won't bet it.

"I'll ever so slightly think that yair Rodriguez edges them out on volume but at minus 160 I mean I think that the books have this one pretty correct"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

The MMA Guru picks Yair Rodríguez over Josh Emmett, citing Emmett's controversial wins and Rodríguez's improved performance against Ortega. He predicts a front kick KO in the first round, noting Rodríguez's chin and Emmett's tendency to get hit. He believes Rodríguez is on a higher level than Emmett.

first round KO via front kick
"I'm gonna go Yaya Rodriguez winning over Josh Emmett"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Zane also picks Rodríguez, emphasizing his improved composure and durability. He notes that Emmett's power is a threat, but Rodríguez has never been knocked out and can take shots. Zane highlights that Rodríguez's kicks will be a major problem for Emmett, who has shown vulnerability to low kicks. He also points out that Emmett's wrestling is not a consistent factor, and Rodríguez's range management will frustrate him.

"I also favor yahir. I this was one that kind of threw me because I looked at it and i'm like oh josh emmett's a better fighter than yahir rodriguez... This is not a good fight for josh emmett."
WIN vs Brian Ortega
TKO (shoulder injury) R1 4:11 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 22 of 35 62% 26 of 39 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:24
Brian Ortega 0 23 of 46 50% 48 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 22 of 35 62% 26 of 39 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:24
Brian Ortega 0 23 of 46 50% 48 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 22 of 35 62% 18 of 30 3 of 3 1 of 2 15 of 27 7 of 8 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 23 of 46 50% 18 of 41 0 of 0 5 of 5 21 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 22 of 35 62% 18 of 30 3 of 3 1 of 2 15 of 27 7 of 8 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 23 of 46 50% 18 of 41 0 of 0 5 of 5 21 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Angelo picks Yair Rodríguez, citing his dynamic striking and unpredictability. He believes Ortega's poor takedown accuracy (24%) will prevent him from getting the fight to the ground, and that Rodríguez's striking will be too much. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway despite the loss, and that he won't have ring rust this time. He placed a small moneyline bet at +137.

small moneyline bet at +137
"i do think yeah rodriguez gets this done i did put a small money line bet on him at plus 137."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Big Brady picks Brian Ortega to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes that Ortega has improved his wrestling significantly, attempting many takedowns in recent fights against top competition like Holloway, Korean Zombie, and Volkanovski. He believes Ortega can take down Rodriguez, who has been taken down frequently in the past, and once on the ground, Ortega's submission game is elite. He acknowledges Rodriguez is the better striker but thinks Ortega's path to victory is through grappling.

submission in round 2 or 3
"i'm going to say ortega does get this fight down to the mat i'm going to say he does lock up something i'll say second or third round submission for brian ortega"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Cody argues that Yair Rodríguez's ground game and wrestling are exploitable, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar and Jeremy Stephens where he was taken down easily. He notes that Brian Ortega has improved his wrestling, taking down elite fighters like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Cody believes Ortega will capitalize on Rodríguez's tendency to fall off-balance and secure a submission or dominant ground control.

Ortega inside the distance, Ortega by submission, under 4.5 rounds, over 2 takedowns for Ortega
"i just got to think ortega is going to capitalize at some point and for that reason he's got to be the main event selection"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Daniel Levi picks Yair Rodríguez to win as an underdog, emphasizing that Yair must keep the fight standing and avoid reckless spinning attacks that could lead to takedowns. He notes that Ortega is dangerous on the ground with submissions and has a history of comeback finishes, but believes Yair's discipline and striking can earn a decision. Levi mentions he will likely bet Yair at +155, viewing it as a dog-or-pass situation due to high variance.

moneyline bet at +155; likely decision win; dog-or-pass situation
"i'm gonna go yay rodriguez to defeat brian ortega and get the upset and cash as an underdog"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Paul agrees with Cody that Ortega is the rightful favorite, citing Yair's overrated win over Korean Zombie where he was seconds from losing. He emphasizes that Ortega's takedowns and submission threat will be decisive, and notes the line moving from -150 to -180. Paul suggests under 4.5 rounds and Ortega by submission as prop bets.

Ortega inside the distance, Ortega by submission, under 4.5 rounds, over 2 takedowns for Ortega
"i think ortega's the the line's been moving that way it was like minus 150 minus 160. it's like minus 180 now it's gonna continue to move i think he's the rightful favorite"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

The MMA Guru picks Brian Ortega over Yair Rodríguez, citing Ortega's superior jiu-jitsu and ability to capitalize on Rodríguez's defensive habits. He notes that Rodríguez dips his head when pressured, which could lead to a guillotine choke. He also mentions Ortega's improved footwork and takedowns, and believes Rodríguez's power is overrated. He predicts a third-round submission win for Ortega.

predicts third-round submission (guillotine)
"i'm going to call a third round guillotine finish for brian ortega getting it done by submission in a great fight"
LOSS vs Max Holloway
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Holloway 0 230 of 404 56% 251 of 434 3 of 5 60% 1 0 6:49
Yair Rodríguez 0 159 of 352 45% 186 of 383 1 of 5 20% 0 1 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Holloway 0 38 of 57 66% 42 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Yair Rodríguez 0 37 of 79 46% 38 of 80 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:43
2 Max Holloway 0 58 of 110 52% 59 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Yair Rodríguez 0 42 of 84 50% 43 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Max Holloway 0 38 of 66 57% 46 of 81 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:04
Yair Rodríguez 0 20 of 47 42% 20 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
4 Max Holloway 0 43 of 77 55% 49 of 84 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:06
Yair Rodríguez 0 24 of 64 37% 28 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Max Holloway 0 53 of 94 56% 55 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:00
Yair Rodríguez 0 36 of 78 46% 57 of 99 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Holloway 230 of 404 56% 129 of 278 66 of 83 35 of 43 187 of 347 22 of 24 21 of 33
Yair Rodríguez 159 of 352 45% 78 of 247 24 of 41 57 of 64 152 of 343 5 of 5 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Holloway 38 of 57 66% 16 of 30 8 of 9 14 of 18 38 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yair Rodríguez 37 of 79 46% 12 of 43 7 of 13 18 of 23 35 of 75 0 of 0 2 of 4
2 Max Holloway 58 of 110 52% 29 of 69 23 of 34 6 of 7 56 of 107 2 of 2 0 of 1
Yair Rodríguez 42 of 84 50% 15 of 54 5 of 7 22 of 23 41 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Max Holloway 38 of 66 57% 25 of 53 11 of 11 2 of 2 20 of 40 4 of 4 14 of 22
Yair Rodríguez 20 of 47 42% 13 of 38 2 of 4 5 of 5 19 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Max Holloway 43 of 77 55% 22 of 52 13 of 16 8 of 9 33 of 65 4 of 5 6 of 7
Yair Rodríguez 24 of 64 37% 17 of 53 3 of 6 4 of 5 24 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Max Holloway 53 of 94 56% 37 of 74 11 of 13 5 of 7 40 of 78 12 of 13 1 of 3
Yair Rodríguez 36 of 78 46% 21 of 59 7 of 11 8 of 8 33 of 75 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Angelo picks Max Holloway to win inside the distance, having placed a one-unit bet at +110. He notes that Holloway's technical striking should cut through Rodriguez's theatrical style. Angelo thinks Holloway will close the distance and avoid the spin attacks, and that Rodriguez's two-year layoff is a factor.

wins inside the distance at plus 110
"i already did the plus 110 wins inside the distance"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Big Brady is confident in Max Holloway, highlighting his insane volume (7.26 significant strikes per minute) and legendary durability (never knocked down). He notes Rodriguez likely needs a KO to win, but Holloway's chin and cardio are elite. Brady expects Holloway to increase volume each round and predicts a fifth-round TKO as damage accumulates.

Holloway by TKO in round 5
"i'm gonna take him to win by like a fifth round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Cody believes Holloway is a god-tier operator who dominates non-elite opponents. He references Holloway's record 445 significant strikes against Kattar and argues that his losses are only to the best (Volkanovski, Poirier). He expects Holloway to win inside the distance, likely by TKO in the later rounds, and thinks the over 3.5 rounds is a solid play.

Max Holloway wins inside the distance (TKO), over 3.5 rounds
"how could you possibly bet against him now at 701 there's no more meat on the bone"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Daniel Levi picks Max Holloway, citing his record-breaking output against Calvin Kattar (447 significant strikes landed) and his status as the clear #2 featherweight. He acknowledges Yair Rodríguez's dynamic striking and finishing ability but believes Holloway's volume and pressure will overwhelm Rodríguez as he fatigues. Levi notes that Rodríguez is a live underdog but ultimately trusts Holloway's proven championship level.

"give me max holloway to come out here and defeat yay rodriguez"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Jacob picks Max Holloway to win inside the distance, placing a four-unit bet at +110. He believes there are levels to this and that Holloway will wear on Rodriguez with volume and finish him. Jacob thinks Holloway wants to make a statement as a big favorite.

four unit bet on max holloway inside the distance
"i got a four unit bet inside the distance you can get it for plus 110 right now"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Paul thinks Max Holloway's volume and durability are unmatched. He notes Holloway's record-breaking strike output and believes Rodríguez can't keep the pace. He's priced out at -720 but still picks Holloway to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.

over 3.5 rounds at -175
"i think max holloway's gonna win i think he wins on volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Max Holloway

The Guru picks Max Holloway by third-round TKO (doctor stoppage due to swelling). He expects Rodríguez to have a strong first round with leg kicks and flashy strikes, but Holloway's pressure, body work, and oblique kicks will break Rodríguez down. By the third round, Rodríguez's eye will be swollen shut, forcing a stoppage.

TKO in round 3 via doctor stoppage
"i'm going with max holloway via third round cko but it's going to be at the end of the round where yay doesn't get back up for the fourth"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman · Oct 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 96 of 170 56% 136 of 213 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:10
Jeremy Stephens 0 50 of 95 52% 99 of 156 3 of 4 75% 0 0 5:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 39 of 70 55% 39 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:50
Jeremy Stephens 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 41 of 73 56% 62 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
Jeremy Stephens 0 11 of 22 50% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:33
3 Yair Rodríguez 0 16 of 27 59% 35 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jeremy Stephens 0 28 of 49 57% 67 of 97 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 96 of 170 56% 65 of 127 14 of 23 17 of 20 54 of 100 6 of 10 36 of 60
Jeremy Stephens 50 of 95 52% 35 of 76 10 of 10 5 of 9 19 of 51 6 of 11 25 of 33
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 39 of 70 55% 18 of 43 9 of 13 12 of 14 34 of 61 4 of 8 1 of 1
Jeremy Stephens 11 of 24 45% 3 of 14 4 of 4 4 of 6 9 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Yair Rodríguez 41 of 73 56% 37 of 67 2 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 13 2 of 2 34 of 58
Jeremy Stephens 11 of 22 50% 9 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 8 4 of 7 6 of 7
3 Yair Rodríguez 16 of 27 59% 10 of 17 3 of 6 3 of 4 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jeremy Stephens 28 of 49 57% 23 of 43 4 of 4 1 of 2 9 of 22 0 of 1 19 of 26
LOSS vs Jeremy Stephens
No Contest (accidental eye poke) R1 0:15 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Sep 21, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 96 of 170 56% 136 of 213 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:10
Jeremy Stephens 0 50 of 95 52% 99 of 156 3 of 4 75% 0 0 5:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 39 of 70 55% 39 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:50
Jeremy Stephens 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 41 of 73 56% 62 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
Jeremy Stephens 0 11 of 22 50% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:33
3 Yair Rodríguez 0 16 of 27 59% 35 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jeremy Stephens 0 28 of 49 57% 67 of 97 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 96 of 170 56% 65 of 127 14 of 23 17 of 20 54 of 100 6 of 10 36 of 60
Jeremy Stephens 50 of 95 52% 35 of 76 10 of 10 5 of 9 19 of 51 6 of 11 25 of 33
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 39 of 70 55% 18 of 43 9 of 13 12 of 14 34 of 61 4 of 8 1 of 1
Jeremy Stephens 11 of 24 45% 3 of 14 4 of 4 4 of 6 9 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Yair Rodríguez 41 of 73 56% 37 of 67 2 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 13 2 of 2 34 of 58
Jeremy Stephens 11 of 22 50% 9 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 8 4 of 7 6 of 7
3 Yair Rodríguez 16 of 27 59% 10 of 17 3 of 6 3 of 4 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jeremy Stephens 28 of 49 57% 23 of 43 4 of 4 1 of 2 9 of 22 0 of 1 19 of 26
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jeremy Stephens vs. Yair Rodriguez

Round 1
We are now treated to a rematch of the main event from UFC Mexico City in September, which tragically ended due to an eye poke within 15 seconds. Rodriguez (12-2, 1 NC; 7-1, 1 NC UFC) is ready to run it back with Stephens (28-16, 1 NC; 16-15, 1 NC UFC), and tensions are high. Trying to keep a lid on this featherweight tilt is referee Kevin MacDonald. There is no touch of the gloves of any kind, as Rodriguez leaps through the air with a flying head kick that clanks off the dome of Stephens. Stephens wings back some angry punches, and the two trade for a moment with bad intentions. Rodriguez clinches up and pushes Stephens against the cage, and Stephens throws a knee to the body, so Rodriguez retaliates with one of his own. The crowd has started to chant "U.S.A." to root on their home country fighter, and as they break apart, Rodriguez lands a powerful elbows over the top. "El Pantera" throws a wild spinning wheel kick that is nowhere near the mark, but he regains position and throws several heavy kicks on both legs. A few body kicks are finding their home on Stephens' midsection, and they are adding up quick. Stephens fires back with everything he has in the form of right hands, but Rodriguez keeps his distance with effective kicks. Another body kick digs in for Rodriguez, and Stephens has lowered his right hand to defend this specific attack. Stephens ducks down possibly for a takedown, but after a little clinch fighting, the two separate. Rodriguez chooses to crash forward into the clinch again, landing a knee up the middle to get there. As Rodriguez slaps a low kick, Stephens rips a right hand to the body of his opponent. The Mexican pulls off a jumping switch kick that catches Stephens flush, but Stephens walks through it. As Stephens presses forward, Rodriguez drops him with a left jab, but cannot take advantage of his grounded adversary as Stephens returns to his feet. Two more kicks get off from Rodriguez, as Stephens chases him around and motions an obscene gesture to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
Rodriguez opens up round two with a spinning kick, but Stephens is able to get up his guard on time. The Mexican fighter then whips a head kick up top, but it is the body kick that follows that does serious damage and makes Stephens buckle over. As Stephens stumbles backwards, Rodriguez swarms him with punches, throwing everything he has into his punches. Stephens defends himself by pursuing a takedown, but Rodriguez is relentless with punches. "Lil' Heathen" is able to survive the assault by going after low takedowns, but Rodriguez walks over it and lands long punches. On his back, Stephens eats wild hammerfists but begins to throw punches while on his back. Rodriguez latches on a brabo choke, and Stephens is trying to roll out of it and survives the submission attempt but is still in grave danger. With pure willpower, Stephens stands back up and unleashes the hardest punches he can possibly throw on Rodriguez. Rodriguez dodges and weaves out of the way of most of these shots, and as Rodriguez catches Stephens to the body again with a kick, Stephens wraps Rodriguez and tries to take him down. Rodriguez rolls through to try to get out of the position but ends up on his back, with Stephens on top raining down punches. El Pantera throws up his legs to search for a triangle choke, and Stephens is not out of the woods yet. In more of a leg scissor choke than a triangle, Stephens breaks the posture and grinds his elbow on his opponent's face as Rodriguez is warned for grabbing the cage. Rodriguez gradually stands up, and Stephens punishes him with a salvo of punches. The Mexican eats several more shots as he finally gets to his feet, and whips a body kick out that backs away Stephens as this crazy round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 3
Stephens comes out threatening with big shots, and as Rodriguez throws a kick out to back him off, he catches Stephens in the groin with a kick. Stephens calls the ref off so that he can charge at Rodriguez, and he slings looping shots that score on Rodriguez and get the crowd amped up. Rodriguez tries to keep his distance with leg kicks, and Stephens catches him on the end of a right hand that Rodriguez wears well. Suddenly, Stephens drops for a double leg takedown and gets Rodriguez down, and although Rodriguez gets back up, Stephens makes sure to score with several punches on his way up. The two separate, but not for long, as Stephens rushes in to secure another takedown and lands in Rodriguez' guard. Rodriguez attempts to utilize a rubber guard to get hold of Stephens' neck, but Stephens pushes the leg off and tries to get his ground-and-pound going. It is quite unfortunate that this fight is only three rounds instead of five, as Stephens sits on top in half guard while throwing punches from above. Stephens continues to mount offense on top in the form of numerous left hands, and the American then decides to drop down elbows that get heavier the more he throws. A huge left hand from Stephens scores as he stands up and dives down to land it, and after some more thudding strikes, the fight is now over. In a display of great sportsmanship, the two embrace, both thrilled with their performances.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Rodriguez)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Stephens (28-28 Draw)

The Official Result
Yair Rodriguez def. Jeremy Stephens via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Brian Ortega - Fight History
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling 0 55 of 174 31% 100 of 225 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:08
Brian Ortega 0 124 of 227 54% 153 of 262 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aljamain Sterling 0 2 of 28 7% 2 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brian Ortega 0 27 of 44 61% 27 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Aljamain Sterling 0 9 of 40 22% 9 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brian Ortega 0 13 of 54 24% 13 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Aljamain Sterling 0 21 of 42 50% 21 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Brian Ortega 0 35 of 52 67% 35 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Aljamain Sterling 0 13 of 37 35% 29 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Brian Ortega 0 25 of 39 64% 35 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:36
5 Aljamain Sterling 0 10 of 27 37% 39 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Brian Ortega 0 24 of 38 63% 43 of 63 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aljamain Sterling 55 of 174 31% 30 of 138 20 of 29 5 of 7 54 of 173 0 of 0 1 of 1
Brian Ortega 124 of 227 54% 77 of 175 21 of 26 26 of 26 100 of 198 7 of 7 17 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aljamain Sterling 2 of 28 7% 2 of 25 0 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 27 of 44 61% 16 of 32 3 of 4 8 of 8 27 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Aljamain Sterling 9 of 40 22% 5 of 33 4 of 6 0 of 1 9 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 13 of 54 24% 6 of 44 1 of 4 6 of 6 12 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Aljamain Sterling 21 of 42 50% 8 of 27 8 of 10 5 of 5 21 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 35 of 52 67% 25 of 42 2 of 2 8 of 8 34 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Aljamain Sterling 13 of 37 35% 8 of 29 5 of 8 0 of 0 12 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 1
Brian Ortega 25 of 39 64% 13 of 26 9 of 10 3 of 3 16 of 30 3 of 3 6 of 6
5 Aljamain Sterling 10 of 27 37% 7 of 24 3 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 24 of 38 63% 17 of 31 6 of 6 1 of 1 11 of 20 2 of 2 11 of 16
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling

Round 1
On merit and divisional relevance, this probably should have been the main event, but that divisional relevance was obliterated by Ortega’s weight cut failure, leading to a 153-pound catchweight affair. It’s still a hell of a fight, however, and when the featherweight contenders go to work, Herb Dean will be tasked with his final referee assignment of the event. Both men are in orthodox stance to open things up, and both come up short with reaching jabs in the first exchanges. Ortega goes southpaw. Thirty seconds in, Sterling feints his first level change, but no takedown attempt follows. Sterling throws a one-two that Ortega slips by pulling his head straight back, then nearly spills him with a nicely timed low kick. Sterling lands a pair of glancing punches and easily eludes the counter. Ortega is barely throwing anything back thus far in the fight. As I type that, he launches a blistering right cross that comes up just barely short. Two minutes left in the first round and Sterling lands another solid low kick—an investment in attrition, especially if this goes into the scheduled fourth and fifth rounds. Sterling with another chopping low kick that lands high on the calf. With under 30 seconds to go, it’s been all Sterling, but Ortega comes forward and lands his best punch of the round before the horn.
10-9 Sterling.

Round 2
Sterling is busy with the jab right away. Ortega throws a high kick that Sterling evades by slipping his head off the center line. Sterling is methodical, coming forward with his jab and cross, nailing Ortega with a calf kick anytime he stands his ground. It isn’t dazzling but it’s brutally effective, as Ortega is throwing next to nothing, aside from single big shots. Sterling tries a spinning backfist that glances without damage. Ortega takes the front foot midway through the round, backing up the former bantamweight champ and throwing righty haymakers. Sterling gives ground, keeps his chin out of range and keeps working on the lead leg. Sterling catches Ortega with a sweeping right hook and Ortega backs off, pawing at his left eye. Sterling looks at the referee, who states that it was a punch, not a finger, and indicates that they should keep fighting. They do not do so immediately, Sterling does not press the issue, and the result is effectively a 45-second timeout after no foul. Once they resume fighting, the round ends without any more substantive offense from either man.
10-9 Sterling.

Round 3
Sterling has to walk two-thirds of the way across the Octagon in order to touch gloves with Ortega; a decent metaphor for this fight in general. Ortega comes forward, snapping out his jab, and tags Sterling with a low kick. Ortega fires off another kick, this one clattering audibly off of Sterling’s cup, but Sterling waves off any intervention by Dean. Sterling continues to give ground in the face of Ortega’s advance, but is still landing more and better strikes. Ortega gets through with another good leg kick, and Sterling catches his next one, hoisting the kicking leg and punching him before letting go. Sterling snaps Ortega’s head back with a jab, then sits him down with a calf kick. Ortega pops back to his feet and lands a good low kick of his own. Sterling steps forward and connects with a long jab. Ortega marches Sterling to the fence but can’t capitalize before he slips out the side. Under a minute to go and Ortega is definitely the aggressor, but that shouldn’t be enough to win the round in the face of the disparity in offense. Ortega catches a kick but can’t land anything of consequence. Ortega fires off a stream of punches at the clapper, but it’s Sterling who connects with a spinning back elbow.
10-9 Sterling.

Round 4
The fourth round begins with Ortega down three to zero on our scorecard, but showing signs of life at the end of the last frame. “T-City” keeps up the pressure, stalking Sterling and trying to back him into the fence. Sterling continues to give ground, but he is still the one landing more and harder strikes. Ortega finally corrals him against the cage, but Sterling slips a couple of haymakers and makes his way back to open space. Two minutes into the round, Ortega is game but still a step behind, as he has been for essentially the entire fight. Sterling snaps his head back with a jab, then delivers another kick to Ortega’s battered left calf. Ortega makes things interesting, swarming forward, catching Sterling against the fence and throwing a flurry of punches with both hands. Many of them glance, but enough of them land that Sterling has to cover and back off. Ortega clinches with him against the fence, and Sterling dumps him to the canvas a moment later, settling in the jiu-jitsu ace’s full guard. Sterling is defensively sound and heavy on top, keeping his posture low while throwing short punches and looking to pass the guard. He postures up and drops a couple of punches and elbows before the horn.
10-9 Sterling.

Round 5
Ortega gets the now-or-never pep talk from his corner before the final round, and comes out hot. Sterling meets him with yet another hard low kick, but he’s forced to retreat in the face of Ortega’s attack. Ortega catches Sterling with a wide hook, his best punch of the fight, and Sterling backs off. Ortega initiates a takedown, but Sterling lands in top position, in Ortega’s full guard. Sterling postures up to look for ground strikes, then stand up out of the guard, and as Ortega gets up, Sterling catches him with a timed, but legal, knee to the dome. Ortega gets to his feet and catches Sterling with a right hand that hurts him. Sterling is in retreat, trying to recover and evade further damage as Ortega gives chase. He avoids the follow-up, but the strategy is so obvious that he draws a warning from Dean for timidity. Ortega crashes the pocket and clinches, but as the go down, it’s Sterling who takes Ortega’s back. Sterling sinks his hooks in and looks for a choke, but Ortega sweeps to top position. Sterling sweeps him right back and throws leather from guard until the horn.
10-9 Sterling (50-45 Sterling).

The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. Brian Ortega via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Angelo is extremely confident in Aljamain Sterling, calling him a backpack grappler with developed striking and spectacular ground game. He dismisses Brian Ortega as not very good anymore, relying only on toughness. He expects Sterling to get takedowns and dominate on the ground, likely by decision due to Ortega's toughness. He says this is one of his most confident picks on the card.

"Almaine Sterling, I think, absolutely rolls here. One of my most confident picks on this fight card."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Big Brady picks Aljamain Sterling to win by decision, citing Sterling's minute-winning ability on the feet and slick grappling. He notes that Sterling throws high volume and can take Ortega down, though he must watch for submissions. He believes Ortega is dangerous but hittable, and that Sterling will control the fight and win a decision.

Sterling by decision
"I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Connor notes that Brian Ortega's game has disintegrated; he used to rely on durability but now gets hurt early in fights. He highlights that Ortega is a guard grappler but hasn't gotten a guard submission since 2017, and his wrestling is an afterthought. Sterling, on the other hand, is a much better wrestler who can dictate grappling exchanges and pile up volume on the feet. Connor is curious to see how Sterling handles Ortega's guard, but believes Sterling's positional grappling will keep him on top.

Odds: Sterling opened -300, now -275; Ortega opened +250, now +235.
"I just have to trust sterling. He's going to get on top of him and make his life hell."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

The host sees this as a fun grappling matchup, but thinks Sterling's advantage in wrestling and control will shut down Ortega's aggressive BJJ. He expects Sterling to grind out a boring fight and win on the scorecards.

"I think Sterling's advantage in the wrestling realm and control should help him shut down the aggressive BJJ nature of Ortega's game and allow Sterling to grind this fight out probably in a boring matchup. And I think that will …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling to win by decision, citing Ortega's poor weight cut and zombie-like appearance at weigh-ins. He believes Sterling is more disciplined and professional, with better wrestling and positional grappling. He notes that Sterling can avoid Ortega's submission threats by pushing him against the cage and working from the back. He also thinks Sterling will do well on the feet, as Ortega has looked lost there at times.

Aljamain Sterling by decision 29-28
"I'm going to have to go with Almaine Sterling. More disciplined, more professional... I think Aljo is going to score this win over Brian Ortega."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Zane agrees that Sterling is the pick, citing Ortega's decline and the fact that he gets hurt in every fight now. He points out that Ortega's entire career has been about absorbing damage, and that Sterling's wrestling and speed will give Ortega problems. Zane also notes that Sterling has never faced a guard grappler like Ortega, but believes Sterling's mindful positional grappling will avoid spending much time in Ortega's guard.

"I just have to trust sterling. He's going to get on top of him and make his life hell."
LOSS vs Diego Lopes
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diego Lopes 0 63 of 195 32% 69 of 201 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Brian Ortega 0 106 of 206 51% 113 of 214 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diego Lopes 0 15 of 45 33% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brian Ortega 0 29 of 57 50% 34 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:03
2 Diego Lopes 0 16 of 48 33% 16 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Brian Ortega 0 22 of 46 47% 22 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
3 Diego Lopes 0 32 of 102 31% 32 of 102 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Brian Ortega 0 55 of 103 53% 57 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diego Lopes 63 of 195 32% 52 of 180 4 of 8 7 of 7 61 of 192 1 of 1 1 of 2
Brian Ortega 106 of 206 51% 75 of 172 13 of 15 18 of 19 75 of 161 6 of 7 25 of 38
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diego Lopes 15 of 45 33% 11 of 41 1 of 1 3 of 3 14 of 43 0 of 0 1 of 2
Brian Ortega 29 of 57 50% 24 of 50 2 of 3 3 of 4 14 of 31 0 of 0 15 of 26
2 Diego Lopes 16 of 48 33% 12 of 42 1 of 3 3 of 3 16 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 22 of 46 47% 11 of 35 1 of 1 10 of 10 20 of 43 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Diego Lopes 32 of 102 31% 29 of 97 2 of 4 1 of 1 31 of 101 1 of 1 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 55 of 103 53% 40 of 87 10 of 11 5 of 5 41 of 87 4 of 4 10 of 12
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Lopes vs. Brian Ortega
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lopes (-175), Ortega (+145)

Round 1
A backdrop of the Mexico City Metropolitan Cathedral is the fighting area for this next bout, one that signals the victory of Mexico in winning its independence. A relatively short-notice matchup between these upcoming fighters turned into a spectacle at UFC 303, when Ortega (16-3, 1 NC; 8-3, 1 NC UFC) realized that he would not be anywhere close to reaching the featherweight limit. When the weight cut down to 155 pounds still sickened him to the point of withdrawing from the bout, Lopes (25-6, 4-1 UFC) made modern UFC history when Dan Ige stepped in just a few hours before the match. Rescheduled for this September showcase and neither man having issue making weight, the two elite featherweights will settle things. Referee Marc Goddard draws the assignment for this intense 145-pound contest, and he checks the fighters in. They clap hands, and proceed cautiously. Ortega leads off with his boxing, sticking out a few short strings of punches. Lopes responds with a low kick, and a remarkably powerful barrage of blows that knock Ortega off his feet. Ortega recovers to try to escape, and Lopes follows him, lifts him up and hurls him to the mat like a side of beef. Lopes decides to get into the guard so he can hammer Ortega with ground-and-pound, and he shrugs off a triangle choke to bust up Ortega’s eye. Lopes lowers himself down again to attack, once more pushing past a triangle, and the cut on Ortega’s left eye is even worse. Ortega turns over to give up his back, and the Brazilian leaps on top of him and lays into him with right hands. Ortega works his way off the fence and smacks Lopes with an upkick, so Lopes responds by grabbing hold of the ankle and lowering himself down to attack. Ortega’s snake-like offensive guard threatens every step of the way, and Lopes appears to want to make a point by either submitting Ortega or playing fearlessly in his guard. Lopes cannot find a way in, so he backs off and beckons Ortega back to his feet. Ortega thanks him for this by landing a pair of punches, and Lopes returns fire to that damaged eye. Ortega plants two kicks in the inside of his foe’s leg, and he connects with an uppercut and a left hand. Lopes jabs his way in, and Ortega’s is far more concussive as he knocks Lopes back. Lopes scoops a left hook around the guard and square into Ortega’s jaw, and Ortega responds with a blitz that is met with an elbow. Lopes sticks out his jab and follows it with a low kick, and he checks a kick coming back his way. Ortega catches a kick and winds up a right hand, but Lopes beats him to the punch when wrenching it back and clips Ortega with a three-fist bouquet. Lopes loops a left over the guard, and he connects with three punches before Ortega can give one back. “T-City” plants a kick to the ribs, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lopes

Round 2
The two men high-five before engaging again. Ortega leads off behind his jab, and Lopes sways as his mullet follows behind him. Ortega boxes his way in, and has his chin checked by powerful punches from the Brazilian. Lopes walks through a jab to load up on a right hand, and he tags a speeding Ortega with a right hand as Ortega comes by him. Ortega lets his right hand fly as well, and Lopes ducks and works the body. Lopes gets off a few leg kicks, and Ortega shoots in for a single and is uppercutted several times to stop his approach. Lopes keeps working on the front leg during the lulls, and Ortega loads up on a pair on his own side. Lopes wings a right hand that is easily parried, and he hops forward with a left hook that just misses the mark as well. The looping Lopes right hand knocks Ortega back, and he shakes it off and eats a subsequent head kick like a chile relleno. Lopes darts in with two punches, Ortega pays him back, and they trade power shots. Lopes blasts the former title challenger with a leg kick that knocks Ortega off his feet, and a huge welt has developed on and around his shin. Lopes lets him stand back up, and he kicks the same spot once before Ortega races at him. The two trade jabs, and Ortega follows one with a straight right hand. Lopes’ counter combo bounces off the guard, and he slaps a low kick as Ortega fails on checking it. Lopes plants a right hand on the jaw at the end of three punches, and Ortega counters with a right up top and a few jabs. Ortega partially checks a chopping kick, and his jab reddens the nose of the Brazilian. The round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lopes

Round 3
The fighters clap hands one final time as the last round begins, and Ortega is not sure-footed as he slips on his front leg. Lopes scoops a left hand around the guard and nails Ortega’s swollen shin with another kick. Ortega jabs the body, and Lopes sits down on a left hook that clubs “T-City” on the side of the noggin. The featherweights trade jabs, and Ortega attacks his own leg kick. Lopes does the same with another kick, and he catches Ortega in the midst of a combination. Ortega stands in the pocket and trades leather, and Lopes clips him again but Ortega is right there to deliver punishment in response. Lopes absorbs several straight punches, and he loads up on responses. Lopes snaps the head back with bitter strikes, and Ortega remains right in front of him putting his hands in his face. Lopes chops the front leg and goes after a push kick, and Ortega catches the second but sets it down. Ortega sneakily works his way into a takedown attempt, and the Brazilian stops it in its tracks and pushes Ortega away. Lopes nails the front leg with his umpteenth kick, and Ortega pops Lopes in the chops with a big right hand. Lopes hurts Ortega with a right hand and a left, and Ortega wipes his eye as if he got poked, but it appeared to be a punch and not an outstretched digit. Lopes races at him throwing hands, but he ties him up and holds on instead of taking him down or otherwise attacking. They separate, and Lopes apologizes in case he was a poke after all. Ortega acknowledges it, and the two start slugging. Ortega fights behind his jab, and Lopes wobbles him twice with massive left hooks. Ortega’s chin is made of sterner stuff as he rarely backs off, but eventually Lopes’ left hook finds its home in the perfect way. Lopes sends “T-City” flying, and he runs after him and takes his back to try to submit the grappler. He bails from that submission setup to stand and bang for the remaining seconds, and he batters Ortega with a final flurry of fists.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes (30-27 Lopes)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes (30-27 Lopes)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lopes (30-27 Lopes)

The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Brian Ortega via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Angelo picks Diego Lopes confidently, having placed a full unit on him at -175. He dismisses concerns about Lopes fading in the third round of his last fight, attributing it to the chaos of multiple opponent and weight class changes on short notice. He believes Lopes is the better striker and grappler, and that Ortega's takedown accuracy is poor. He criticizes Ortega for missing weight and calls him a 'fat slob', expecting Lopes to steamroll him again.

Placed 1 unit on Lopes at -175.
"Diego Lopez is going to be the pick I have a full unit on him at minus 175"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Big Brady picks Lopes, citing his rapid improvement, youth, and hunger. He notes Lopes can win by decision or early finish, but expects Ortega's toughness to carry him to a decision loss. He predicts Lopes wins 29-28.

"I got to go Lopez here... I'll officially say Lopez by decision I think Ortega is tough enough to survive these first two rounds... I think Lopez wins it 29-28"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Daniel picks Diego Lopes but with low confidence, citing Lopes' tendency to fade in third rounds and Ortega's legendary third-round finishing ability. He thinks Lopes will win a controversial split decision by taking the first two rounds, but worries about Ortega's durability and Lopes' cardio. He notes Lopes' dangerous hooks and Ortega's ability to weather storms.

"I'm think I'm picking Lopez but not impressively I think I'm picking Lopez by like a controversial Split Decision"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Daniel Vreeland picks Brian Ortega as a dog, citing his grappling advantage as the difference maker. He notes Ortega nearly submitted Alexander Volkanovski and controlled Yair Rodriguez on the mat. He believes Diego Lopez relies on scrambles, while Ortega catches people in scrambles. He trusts Ortega's grappling to hold up and likes the plus money.

"I'm gonna take Brian Ortega um and I you know I took him the first time obviously the pull out's a little bit of a concern uh but the the odds have swung even further in the other direction which …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Jeff Fox picks Diego Lopes because he is bigger, younger, and can grapple a bit. He took Lopes last time and is sticking with him, noting Lopes is on a roll.

"I took Lopez last time I'm taking Lopez this time as well bigger younger um I like him much better than the feet and he can uh he can grapple a little bit as well so uh give me the …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)

The transcript does not discuss this fight. The host covers other fights but not Lopes vs Ortega.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Diego Lopes

Lopez's BJJ background will save him from the threat Ortega normally poses on the ground. Lopez also provides more threats in the striking realm. Expects Lopez to win inside the distance.

wins inside the distance
"I expect his BJJ background to say him from the threat that Orga normally puts people in when they get fights to the ground and I do think that Lopez provides more threats in the Striking room as well I'm …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes. He notes that Ortega is a slow starter and Lopes is more switched on currently. He believes Lopes has better takedown defense and grappling conditioning than Yair Rodriguez, and his striking is more consistent. He also mentions Ortega has taken a lot of damage and has had only one fight in over two years. He sees Lopes winning by finish or decision.

"I'm going to go Diego Lopez I'm going to trust in the favorite here... I think he's more switched on as a fighter right now in his career"
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 0:58 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brian Ortega 1 55 of 115 47% 64 of 135 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:32
Yair Rodríguez 0 28 of 73 38% 47 of 104 3 of 6 50% 1 0 5:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brian Ortega 1 45 of 91 49% 50 of 102 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:32
Yair Rodríguez 0 6 of 28 21% 7 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:42
2 Brian Ortega 0 9 of 17 52% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yair Rodríguez 0 22 of 44 50% 39 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:55
3 Brian Ortega 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yair Rodríguez 0 0 of 1 0% 1 of 4 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brian Ortega 55 of 115 47% 36 of 91 11 of 15 8 of 9 34 of 86 9 of 12 12 of 17
Yair Rodríguez 28 of 73 38% 26 of 69 2 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 50 2 of 3 13 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brian Ortega 45 of 91 49% 28 of 69 10 of 14 7 of 8 24 of 62 9 of 12 12 of 17
Yair Rodríguez 6 of 28 21% 5 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brian Ortega 9 of 17 52% 7 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yair Rodríguez 22 of 44 50% 21 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 21 2 of 3 13 of 20
3 Brian Ortega 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yair Rodríguez 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Angelo picks Ortega with low confidence, citing the first fight where Ortega was winning before his shoulder injury. He notes the elevation and crowd in Mexico could favor Rodriguez, but trusts his brain over his gut. He worries about Ortega's long layoff but believes he can squeak out a win.

"I think Brian Orga can win this fight I am split though my brain and my gut are saying two different things"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Big Brady picks Yair Rodríguez to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Rodríguez has been more active and looked impressive against Josh Emmett, while Ortega has had a long layoff. He believes Rodríguez has the advantage on the feet with his kicks and power, and that Ortega is hittable. He doubts Ortega's wrestling will be effective, as Rodríguez stuffed takedowns in their first fight. He expects Rodríguez to dominate at range and eventually finish Ortega.

Rodríguez wins by KO in round 3
"I got to go Yer here um I think he's going to be able to stuff a lot of these takedowns Ortega's never really had the best wrestling and on the feed I just kind of think it's one-way traffic …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Cody picks Ortega, noting that in their first fight Ortega was winning before the shoulder injury. He believes Ortega's skills haven't digressed, his jiu-jitsu is second to none, and his wrestling is good enough to take down Rodriguez. He also mentions Ortega's ability to come back better after layoffs, as he did after the Holloway loss. He considers the plus 130 price good value.

"I'll take the dog Bri Orga nice"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

The host recalls the first fight where Rodríguez kept Ortega at bay with striking and Ortega's only success was a clinch takedown that led to an injury. He believes Rodríguez needs to keep the fight standing, and even if it goes to the ground, Rodríguez has worked on his jiu-jitsu to defend and get back to his feet. He predicts Rodríguez will finish Ortega by the third round.

Finish by third round
"Rodriguez really needs to keep this fight in the Striking real otherwise Ortega can utilize the one advantage he normally holds in his matchup and that's what his submission game but it's clear Rodriguez has been working on his Jiu-Jitsu …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Paul is leaning towards Ortega but is hesitant due to the year-and-a-half layoff, Ortega's age (33), and his recent record (lost last two, hasn't finished in six years). However, he acknowledges Ortega matched up well in the first fight and has the skills to win. He says if he had a gun to his head he'd pick Ortega, but it's a wild card pick.

"yeah like want to pick Ortega think I might pick Ortega if I got a gun to my head take a couple underdogs on this card Ortega certainly is one that is looking appealing"
LOSS vs Yair Rodríguez
TKO (shoulder injury) R1 4:11 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 22 of 35 62% 26 of 39 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:24
Brian Ortega 0 23 of 46 50% 48 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 22 of 35 62% 26 of 39 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:24
Brian Ortega 0 23 of 46 50% 48 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 22 of 35 62% 18 of 30 3 of 3 1 of 2 15 of 27 7 of 8 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 23 of 46 50% 18 of 41 0 of 0 5 of 5 21 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 22 of 35 62% 18 of 30 3 of 3 1 of 2 15 of 27 7 of 8 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 23 of 46 50% 18 of 41 0 of 0 5 of 5 21 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Angelo picks Yair Rodríguez, citing his dynamic striking and unpredictability. He believes Ortega's poor takedown accuracy (24%) will prevent him from getting the fight to the ground, and that Rodríguez's striking will be too much. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway despite the loss, and that he won't have ring rust this time. He placed a small moneyline bet at +137.

small moneyline bet at +137
"i do think yeah rodriguez gets this done i did put a small money line bet on him at plus 137."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Big Brady picks Brian Ortega to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes that Ortega has improved his wrestling significantly, attempting many takedowns in recent fights against top competition like Holloway, Korean Zombie, and Volkanovski. He believes Ortega can take down Rodriguez, who has been taken down frequently in the past, and once on the ground, Ortega's submission game is elite. He acknowledges Rodriguez is the better striker but thinks Ortega's path to victory is through grappling.

submission in round 2 or 3
"i'm going to say ortega does get this fight down to the mat i'm going to say he does lock up something i'll say second or third round submission for brian ortega"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Cody argues that Yair Rodríguez's ground game and wrestling are exploitable, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar and Jeremy Stephens where he was taken down easily. He notes that Brian Ortega has improved his wrestling, taking down elite fighters like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Cody believes Ortega will capitalize on Rodríguez's tendency to fall off-balance and secure a submission or dominant ground control.

Ortega inside the distance, Ortega by submission, under 4.5 rounds, over 2 takedowns for Ortega
"i just got to think ortega is going to capitalize at some point and for that reason he's got to be the main event selection"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Daniel Levi picks Yair Rodríguez to win as an underdog, emphasizing that Yair must keep the fight standing and avoid reckless spinning attacks that could lead to takedowns. He notes that Ortega is dangerous on the ground with submissions and has a history of comeback finishes, but believes Yair's discipline and striking can earn a decision. Levi mentions he will likely bet Yair at +155, viewing it as a dog-or-pass situation due to high variance.

moneyline bet at +155; likely decision win; dog-or-pass situation
"i'm gonna go yay rodriguez to defeat brian ortega and get the upset and cash as an underdog"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Paul agrees with Cody that Ortega is the rightful favorite, citing Yair's overrated win over Korean Zombie where he was seconds from losing. He emphasizes that Ortega's takedowns and submission threat will be decisive, and notes the line moving from -150 to -180. Paul suggests under 4.5 rounds and Ortega by submission as prop bets.

Ortega inside the distance, Ortega by submission, under 4.5 rounds, over 2 takedowns for Ortega
"i think ortega's the the line's been moving that way it was like minus 150 minus 160. it's like minus 180 now it's gonna continue to move i think he's the rightful favorite"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

The MMA Guru picks Brian Ortega over Yair Rodríguez, citing Ortega's superior jiu-jitsu and ability to capitalize on Rodríguez's defensive habits. He notes that Rodríguez dips his head when pressured, which could lead to a guillotine choke. He also mentions Ortega's improved footwork and takedowns, and believes Rodríguez's power is overrated. He predicts a third-round submission win for Ortega.

predicts third-round submission (guillotine)
"i'm going to call a third round guillotine finish for brian ortega getting it done by submission in a great fight"
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 50–45, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkanovski 0 214 of 353 60% 229 of 377 0 of 0 --- 0 2 3:51
Brian Ortega 0 88 of 234 37% 101 of 250 2 of 5 40% 3 1 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkanovski 0 30 of 52 57% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brian Ortega 0 16 of 51 31% 16 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkanovski 0 38 of 61 62% 38 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Brian Ortega 0 23 of 58 39% 23 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Volkanovski 0 61 of 99 61% 65 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:13
Brian Ortega 0 17 of 40 42% 22 of 46 1 of 1 100% 2 1 0:41
4 Alexander Volkanovski 0 35 of 58 60% 46 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:33
Brian Ortega 0 6 of 15 40% 14 of 25 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:13
5 Alexander Volkanovski 0 50 of 83 60% 50 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Brian Ortega 0 26 of 70 37% 26 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkanovski 214 of 353 60% 146 of 270 20 of 26 48 of 57 158 of 254 3 of 6 53 of 93
Brian Ortega 88 of 234 37% 59 of 193 20 of 26 9 of 15 82 of 225 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkanovski 30 of 52 57% 14 of 32 5 of 7 11 of 13 30 of 50 0 of 2 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 16 of 51 31% 9 of 39 3 of 5 4 of 7 15 of 49 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkanovski 38 of 61 62% 19 of 38 5 of 8 14 of 15 38 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 23 of 58 39% 14 of 47 5 of 5 4 of 6 22 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Alexander Volkanovski 61 of 99 61% 46 of 81 3 of 3 12 of 15 30 of 42 0 of 0 31 of 57
Brian Ortega 17 of 40 42% 12 of 32 5 of 8 0 of 0 15 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Alexander Volkanovski 35 of 58 60% 28 of 50 1 of 2 6 of 6 13 of 22 0 of 0 22 of 36
Brian Ortega 6 of 15 40% 5 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 1 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Alexander Volkanovski 50 of 83 60% 39 of 69 6 of 6 5 of 8 47 of 79 3 of 4 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 26 of 70 37% 19 of 62 6 of 7 1 of 1 24 of 66 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Angelo picks Volkanovski, citing his speed, footwork, and takedowns. He notes that Volkanovski is the better striker and wrestler, while Ortega is the better grappler. Angelo believes Volkanovski will keep the fight at range, use leg kicks, and piece up Ortega. He doesn't expect Volkanovski to shoot takedowns due to Ortega's guillotine.

Angelo suggests more more on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting high volume. He also mentions Ortega by submission at +350 as an interesting prop.
"volkanowsky's my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision. He believes Volkanovski is the better striker with superior volume and defense, and he will win the minutes of the fight. He acknowledges Ortega's danger on the ground and his power, but thinks Volkanovski can avoid submissions and outpoint him over five rounds.

"i'm gonna take volkonovsky to win and i will take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Cody acknowledges Volkanovski's near-perfect UFC run, strong wrestling, cardio, and fight IQ, but is hesitant because Ortega is a worthy challenger with excellent jiu-jitsu that could neutralize Volkanovski's wrestling. He notes Ortega's striking improvements and durability, but ultimately leans Volkanovski due to his ability to find a way to win. He prefers to attack the over rounds rather than the moneyline.

over 3.5 rounds, over 4.5 rounds, fight goes to decision
"the official play will be vulkanovsky but i'm looking to attack this on the overs over three and a half over four and a half bikers of distance"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Volkanovski but is hesitant, acknowledging that MMA is not a logical sport. He notes that all tape, stats, and logic point to Volkanovski winning, but Ortega has the ability to hurt and finish opponents. Levi debunks the myth that Ortega can't throw volume, citing his high strike attempts against Renato Moicano, Max Holloway, and Korean Zombie. He is worried about Volkanovski being hurt, as seen in the Max Holloway fight, but ultimately goes with the champion.

"my pick is volk but it's not the most confident pick in the world"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Jacob picks Volkanovski, calling him very technical. He questions whether Ortega has improved his striking, particularly his jab and check left. Jacob thinks Volkanovski will keep distance and work leg kicks. He's rooting for Ortega but expects Volkanovski to win.

Jacob plans to include Volkanovski in his DraftKings lineup at $8,600. He agrees with more more on Monkey Knife Fight.
"I think volcanowski is going to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Alexander Volkanovski

The host picks Alexander Volkanovski to retain his title via decision. He believes Volkanovski is a master at executing game plans and will use feints, leg kicks, and movement to stifle Ortega. He thinks Ortega's improved striking is overrated based on the Korean Zombie fight and that Volkanovski's submission defense will keep him safe. He expects a masterful performance and a decision win.

"i am going with alexander volkowski i feel rather confident in it as well that he should be able to go out there and stay away from the jiu jitsu threat of ortega"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Paul is confident in Volkanovski, citing his strength, tactical fighting, reach advantage, and ability to push Ortega off when he tries to tie up. He references Volkanovski's wins over Max Holloway and Ortega's loss to Holloway where Ortega was badly beaten. He believes Volkanovski wins by decision and likes the over due to Ortega's durability.

over 4.5 rounds (bet at -105), Volkanovski by decision
"i think volkanovsky's just gonna be too strong he's gonna be able to push him off uh anytime that ortega tries to tie up"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski over Brian Ortega, citing Volkanovski's composure, leg kicks, and body work. He notes that Ortega is a live dog but Volkanovski has shown he can recover from being dropped. He expects Volkanovski to chop at the legs in the first two rounds, then finish with a fourth-round TKO as Ortega's mobility is compromised. He highlights Volkanovski's undefeated record at featherweight and wins over Holloway and Aldo.

fourth round tko
"i'm gonna call a fourth round tko for alexander volkonovsky"
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · Oct 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brian Ortega 2 127 of 212 59% 129 of 214 3 of 10 30% 0 0 0:57
Chan Sung Jung 0 62 of 163 38% 64 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brian Ortega 1 24 of 39 61% 24 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chan Sung Jung 0 14 of 26 53% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brian Ortega 1 23 of 37 62% 24 of 38 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:35
Chan Sung Jung 0 14 of 34 41% 14 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brian Ortega 0 28 of 42 66% 28 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Chan Sung Jung 0 7 of 32 21% 7 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Brian Ortega 0 17 of 35 48% 18 of 36 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:22
Chan Sung Jung 0 8 of 26 30% 10 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Brian Ortega 0 35 of 59 59% 35 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Chan Sung Jung 0 19 of 45 42% 19 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brian Ortega 127 of 212 59% 64 of 135 22 of 28 41 of 49 118 of 199 5 of 7 4 of 6
Chan Sung Jung 62 of 163 38% 35 of 127 14 of 21 13 of 15 62 of 162 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brian Ortega 24 of 39 61% 11 of 24 5 of 6 8 of 9 24 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chan Sung Jung 14 of 26 53% 4 of 15 4 of 5 6 of 6 14 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brian Ortega 23 of 37 62% 14 of 25 2 of 4 7 of 8 17 of 29 2 of 2 4 of 6
Chan Sung Jung 14 of 34 41% 12 of 31 0 of 1 2 of 2 14 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Brian Ortega 28 of 42 66% 13 of 25 4 of 4 11 of 13 27 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chan Sung Jung 7 of 32 21% 2 of 23 1 of 3 4 of 6 7 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Brian Ortega 17 of 35 48% 5 of 18 5 of 6 7 of 11 15 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
Chan Sung Jung 8 of 26 30% 1 of 18 6 of 7 1 of 1 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Brian Ortega 35 of 59 59% 21 of 43 6 of 8 8 of 8 35 of 57 0 of 2 0 of 0
Chan Sung Jung 19 of 45 42% 16 of 40 3 of 5 0 of 0 19 of 44 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Chan Sung Jung

Big Brady picks the Korean Zombie due to his superior striking defense and output, Ortega's poor striking defense (absorbs 7.36 strikes per minute), and the two-year layoff for Ortega. He believes the fight will stay standing because Ortega lacks wrestling to get takedowns, and Jung's takedown defense is excellent. He predicts a late stoppage (4th or 5th round).

over 2.5 rounds
"give me chan song junk to win i'm gonna say fourth or fifth round stoppage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Chan Sung Jung

The MMA Guru picks the Korean Zombie because Ortega is a slow starter who gets hit a lot, and Zombie is one of the best first-round fighters in the division. He notes Ortega's long layoff and the damage he took against Holloway, while Zombie has never been submitted and has crisp standup. He predicts a second-round TKO.

second round tko
"i'm gonna go to korean zombie getting it down by second round tko"
LOSS vs Max Holloway
TKO (doctor stoppage) R4 5:00 · UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · Dec 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Holloway 0 290 of 490 59% 307 of 507 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:16
Brian Ortega 0 110 of 292 37% 112 of 294 2 of 11 18% 0 0 2:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Holloway 0 40 of 84 47% 46 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brian Ortega 0 19 of 65 29% 19 of 65 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:22
2 Max Holloway 0 66 of 126 52% 66 of 126 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brian Ortega 0 33 of 92 35% 33 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Max Holloway 0 50 of 84 59% 54 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brian Ortega 0 30 of 81 37% 32 of 83 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:05
4 Max Holloway 0 134 of 196 68% 141 of 203 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:16
Brian Ortega 0 28 of 54 51% 28 of 54 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Holloway 290 of 490 59% 244 of 430 41 of 55 5 of 5 281 of 479 8 of 10 1 of 1
Brian Ortega 110 of 292 37% 87 of 267 16 of 18 7 of 7 101 of 282 9 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Holloway 40 of 84 47% 30 of 70 10 of 14 0 of 0 39 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 19 of 65 29% 13 of 59 3 of 3 3 of 3 18 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Max Holloway 66 of 126 52% 60 of 118 3 of 5 3 of 3 66 of 126 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 33 of 92 35% 29 of 88 4 of 4 0 of 0 31 of 90 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Max Holloway 50 of 84 59% 44 of 76 4 of 6 2 of 2 50 of 82 0 of 2 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 30 of 81 37% 23 of 73 4 of 5 3 of 3 27 of 77 3 of 4 0 of 0
4 Max Holloway 134 of 196 68% 110 of 166 24 of 30 0 of 0 126 of 188 7 of 7 1 of 1
Brian Ortega 28 of 54 51% 22 of 47 5 of 6 1 of 1 25 of 51 3 of 3 0 of 0
WIN vs Frankie Edgar
KO (punch) R1 4:44 · UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · Mar 03, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brian Ortega 0 27 of 77 35% 27 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Frankie Edgar 1 25 of 76 32% 25 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brian Ortega 0 27 of 77 35% 27 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Frankie Edgar 1 25 of 76 32% 25 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brian Ortega 27 of 77 35% 12 of 59 10 of 13 5 of 5 27 of 76 0 of 1 0 of 0
Frankie Edgar 25 of 76 32% 21 of 71 3 of 4 1 of 1 17 of 66 6 of 8 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brian Ortega 27 of 77 35% 12 of 59 10 of 13 5 of 5 27 of 76 0 of 1 0 of 0
Frankie Edgar 25 of 76 32% 21 of 71 3 of 4 1 of 1 17 of 66 6 of 8 2 of 2
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Angelo picks Yair Rodríguez, citing his dynamic striking and unpredictability. He believes Ortega's poor takedown accuracy (24%) will prevent him from getting the fight to the ground, and that Rodríguez's striking will be too much. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway despite the loss, and that he won't have ring rust this time. He placed a small moneyline bet at +137.

small moneyline bet at +137
"i do think yeah rodriguez gets this done i did put a small money line bet on him at plus 137."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Big Brady picks Brian Ortega to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes that Ortega has improved his wrestling significantly, attempting many takedowns in recent fights against top competition like Holloway, Korean Zombie, and Volkanovski. He believes Ortega can take down Rodriguez, who has been taken down frequently in the past, and once on the ground, Ortega's submission game is elite. He acknowledges Rodriguez is the better striker but thinks Ortega's path to victory is through grappling.

submission in round 2 or 3
"i'm going to say ortega does get this fight down to the mat i'm going to say he does lock up something i'll say second or third round submission for brian ortega"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Cody argues that Yair Rodríguez's ground game and wrestling are exploitable, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar and Jeremy Stephens where he was taken down easily. He notes that Brian Ortega has improved his wrestling, taking down elite fighters like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Cody believes Ortega will capitalize on Rodríguez's tendency to fall off-balance and secure a submission or dominant ground control.

Ortega inside the distance, Ortega by submission, under 4.5 rounds, over 2 takedowns for Ortega
"i just got to think ortega is going to capitalize at some point and for that reason he's got to be the main event selection"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Daniel Levi picks Yair Rodríguez to win as an underdog, emphasizing that Yair must keep the fight standing and avoid reckless spinning attacks that could lead to takedowns. He notes that Ortega is dangerous on the ground with submissions and has a history of comeback finishes, but believes Yair's discipline and striking can earn a decision. Levi mentions he will likely bet Yair at +155, viewing it as a dog-or-pass situation due to high variance.

moneyline bet at +155; likely decision win; dog-or-pass situation
"i'm gonna go yay rodriguez to defeat brian ortega and get the upset and cash as an underdog"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Paul agrees with Cody that Ortega is the rightful favorite, citing Yair's overrated win over Korean Zombie where he was seconds from losing. He emphasizes that Ortega's takedowns and submission threat will be decisive, and notes the line moving from -150 to -180. Paul suggests under 4.5 rounds and Ortega by submission as prop bets.

Ortega inside the distance, Ortega by submission, under 4.5 rounds, over 2 takedowns for Ortega
"i think ortega's the the line's been moving that way it was like minus 150 minus 160. it's like minus 180 now it's gonna continue to move i think he's the rightful favorite"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

The MMA Guru picks Brian Ortega over Yair Rodríguez, citing Ortega's superior jiu-jitsu and ability to capitalize on Rodríguez's defensive habits. He notes that Rodríguez dips his head when pressured, which could lead to a guillotine choke. He also mentions Ortega's improved footwork and takedowns, and believes Rodríguez's power is overrated. He predicts a third-round submission win for Ortega.

predicts third-round submission (guillotine)
"i'm going to call a third round guillotine finish for brian ortega getting it done by submission in a great fight"