Career Averages - Yair Rodríguez
Career Averages - Brian Ortega
Yair Rodríguez
Brian Ortega
Yair Rodríguez - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 1 | 70 of 122 | 57% | 97 of 157 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Patrício Pitbull | 0 | 17 of 50 | 34% | 23 of 60 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 26 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patrício Pitbull | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 25 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Patrício Pitbull | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 8 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 1 | 38 of 56 | 67% | 46 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Patrício Pitbull | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 70 of 122 | 57% | 38 of 82 | 18 of 23 | 14 of 17 | 43 of 89 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 31 |
| Patrício Pitbull | 17 of 50 | 34% | 8 of 38 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 11 of 21 | 52% | 3 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 10 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Patrício Pitbull | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 21 of 45 | 46% | 8 of 28 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 20 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Patrício Pitbull | 8 of 26 | 30% | 5 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 38 of 56 | 67% | 27 of 44 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 31 |
| Patrício Pitbull | 5 of 14 | 35% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Connor picks Rodríguez, echoing Zane's reasoning about Pitbull's vulnerability to aggressive strikers. He notes that Pitbull has struggled against fighters who pressure him early and that Rodríguez's length and kicking game pose unique problems. Connor acknowledges Pitbull's experience and ability to adjust between fights but believes Rodríguez's style is a bad matchup for the current version of Pitbull.
Daniel Levi states that Yair Rodríguez schooled Patrício Pitbull, being much faster and more dynamic, and was a couple steps ahead all night. He notes that Pitbull looked shopworn and didn't shine in the big moment.
Lucrative James picks Patrício Pitbull to win, citing his experience, grappling advantage, and power. He believes Pitbull's wrestling and top control will be key, and he expects him to submit or ground-and-pound Rodríguez. He acknowledges Rodríguez's flashy kicks and danger but thinks Pitbull's cerebral style and veteran savvy will prevail. He notes that Pitbull is 37 and may be past his prime, but he still sees him as the better fighter overall. He also thinks the UFC is setting Pitbull up for a win to inject new blood into the division.
Zane picks Rodríguez, citing Pitbull's history of losing to aggressive, high-output fighters who take the initiative early. He notes that Pitbull has become a patient counter-puncher, which plays into Rodríguez's strengths as a long-range striker with dynamic kicks. Zane points to Pitbull's recent loss to Chihiro Suzuki as evidence that he can be overwhelmed by a powerful, wild striker. He acknowledges Pitbull's grappling and experience but believes Rodríguez's reach and willingness to attack from distance will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Ortega | 1 | 55 of 115 | 47% | 64 of 135 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 28 of 73 | 38% | 47 of 104 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 5:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Ortega | 1 | 45 of 91 | 49% | 50 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 6 of 28 | 21% | 7 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 | |
| 2 | Brian Ortega | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 39 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 | |
| 3 | Brian Ortega | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Ortega | 55 of 115 | 47% | 36 of 91 | 11 of 15 | 8 of 9 | 34 of 86 | 9 of 12 | 12 of 17 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 28 of 73 | 38% | 26 of 69 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Ortega | 45 of 91 | 49% | 28 of 69 | 10 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 24 of 62 | 9 of 12 | 12 of 17 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 6 of 28 | 21% | 5 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brian Ortega | 9 of 17 | 52% | 7 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 22 of 44 | 50% | 21 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 20 | |
| 3 | Brian Ortega | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ortega with low confidence, citing the first fight where Ortega was winning before his shoulder injury. He notes the elevation and crowd in Mexico could favor Rodriguez, but trusts his brain over his gut. He worries about Ortega's long layoff but believes he can squeak out a win.
Big Brady picks Yair Rodríguez to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Rodríguez has been more active and looked impressive against Josh Emmett, while Ortega has had a long layoff. He believes Rodríguez has the advantage on the feet with his kicks and power, and that Ortega is hittable. He doubts Ortega's wrestling will be effective, as Rodríguez stuffed takedowns in their first fight. He expects Rodríguez to dominate at range and eventually finish Ortega.
Cody picks Ortega, noting that in their first fight Ortega was winning before the shoulder injury. He believes Ortega's skills haven't digressed, his jiu-jitsu is second to none, and his wrestling is good enough to take down Rodriguez. He also mentions Ortega's ability to come back better after layoffs, as he did after the Holloway loss. He considers the plus 130 price good value.
The host recalls the first fight where Rodríguez kept Ortega at bay with striking and Ortega's only success was a clinch takedown that led to an injury. He believes Rodríguez needs to keep the fight standing, and even if it goes to the ground, Rodríguez has worked on his jiu-jitsu to defend and get back to his feet. He predicts Rodríguez will finish Ortega by the third round.
Paul is leaning towards Ortega but is hesitant due to the year-and-a-half layoff, Ortega's age (33), and his recent record (lost last two, hasn't finished in six years). However, he acknowledges Ortega matched up well in the first fight and has the skills to win. He says if he had a gun to his head he'd pick Ortega, but it's a wild card pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 66 of 97 | 68% | 149 of 198 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 7:13 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 40 of 80 | 50% | 57 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 49 of 58 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:22 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 18 of 25 | 72% | 55 of 75 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 24 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 37 of 57 | 64% | 45 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 23 of 52 | 44% | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 66 of 97 | 68% | 48 of 69 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 23 | 25 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 37 of 46 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 40 of 80 | 50% | 13 of 49 | 11 of 14 | 16 of 17 | 38 of 77 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 11 of 15 | 73% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 11 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 18 of 25 | 72% | 15 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 14 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 12 of 19 | 63% | 4 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 37 of 57 | 64% | 24 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 14 | 19 of 31 | 3 of 5 | 15 of 21 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 23 of 52 | 44% | 8 of 35 | 5 of 7 | 10 of 10 | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident in Volkanovski, calling the -400 odds appropriate. He highlights Volkanovski's speed, kick usage, takedowns, and strength, and notes his performance against Islam Makhachev. He thinks Volkanovski will control the pace, mix in takedowns, and keep Rodríguez on the back foot, preventing his wild striking. He acknowledges Rodríguez's danger but believes Volkanovski is on another level.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by late stoppage (fourth round). He notes that Volkanovski is the better striker with more volume and better defense, and he has a huge advantage in wrestling and ground and pound. He points out that Rodríguez has poor takedown defense and no answers off his back, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar, Jeremy Stephens, Max Holloway, and Josh Emmett. He believes Volkanovski will take Rodríguez down, beat him up, and get a doctor stoppage or TKO in the later rounds.
Cody picks Volkanovski to retain, citing his durability, cardio, and submission defense. He notes Yair's danger with unorthodox strikes but believes Volk's constant pressure and takedowns will be decisive. He mentions Volk's training with Blood Diamond to mimic Yair's style. He leans toward Volk by decision but wouldn't be surprised by a stoppage.
Connor picks Volkanovski, emphasizing his championship quality and preparation. He acknowledges Yair's danger, especially his kicking game and durability, but believes Volkanovski's pressure and wrestling will be decisive. Connor notes that Volkanovski's ability to take Yair down and control him on the ground is the path to victory.
Daniel Levi picks Volkanovski, citing his elite fainting game, ability to out-jab taller opponents, and superior boxing in close range. He notes Volkanovski's takedown of Islam Makhachev as evidence of his wrestling prowess, which he believes will be a key advantage against Yair's suspect takedown defense. Levi acknowledges Yair's unique kicking arsenal and the head-kick KO history of Volkanovski, but expects Volkanovski's pressure and cardio to take over as the fight progresses. He also mentions that Yair's energy-intensive style may lead to a slowdown in later rounds.
James picks Volkanovski to win by ground-and-pound, likely in rounds 3 or 4. He believes Volkanovski's superior fight IQ and grappling advantage will be decisive. He notes Rodríguez has clear deficiencies on the ground and Volkanovski has heavy ground-and-pound. He also mentions the weight cut factor for Volkanovski moving back down, but still favors him. He does not advocate betting the moneyline at -400, but likes the inside distance prop.
Volkanovski is the more polished and disciplined fighter with excellent striking defense, movement, and wrestling. Rodriguez has flashy striking and an active guard, but has been broken before. Volkanovski will close distance, land takedowns, and control the fight, likely winning by decision. He is a safe parlay piece.
Paul agrees with Cody, stating it's tough to go against Volk at 145. He highlights Volk's ability to win on volume or by mixing in wrestling, and his proven submission defense. He mentions Volk's training with Blood Diamond to mimic Yair. He says he'll likely include Volk in parlays but won't place a serious wager.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by fourth-round TKO. He acknowledges Rodríguez's dangerous striking but doubts his finishing ability, calling his ground and pound pathetic. He believes Volkanovski's leg kicks and pressure will disrupt Rodríguez's flow, and that Volkanovski's top game in later rounds will be decisive. He notes that Holloway already handled Rodríguez on the ground.
Zane picks Volkanovski, citing his pressure wrestling and ability to exploit Yair's defensive flaws. He notes that Volkanovski's wrestling will be key to neutralizing Yair's kicking game and that Yair's stamina flags under grappling pressure. Zane expects Volkanovski to take Yair down and grind him out, possibly with a late TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 62 of 107 | 57% | 98 of 143 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 35 of 72 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 26 of 53 | 49% | 32 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 36 of 54 | 66% | 66 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 17 of 34 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 62 of 107 | 57% | 36 of 76 | 18 of 22 | 8 of 9 | 47 of 87 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 11 |
| Josh Emmett | 22 of 52 | 42% | 17 of 44 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 26 of 53 | 49% | 14 of 39 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 7 |
| Josh Emmett | 12 of 26 | 46% | 10 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 9 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 36 of 54 | 66% | 22 of 37 | 11 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 26 of 43 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 |
| Josh Emmett | 10 of 26 | 38% | 7 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Josh Emmett, citing his power and wrestling base, though he notes Emmett doesn't use his wrestling often. He believes Emmett's power will be the difference, especially if he can stay close and grind. He acknowledges Yair's creativity and athleticism but thinks Emmett's power and pressure will win. He has a half-unit bet on Emmett at +135.
Big Brady thinks this is a close fight and picks Emmett for the upset. He notes Emmett's power and volume, and thinks Emmett will have the bigger moments. He expects a decision win for Emmett, similar to the Kattar fight, and says the line should be closer.
Cody picks Rodríguez but is not confident due to Rodríguez's inconsistency. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway with improved cardio and kicking volume, but Emmett has power and wrestling he doesn't use offensively. He thinks Emmett's path is a big shot, but Rodríguez's chin and volume should edge him out. He finds the -175 line unappealing and won't bet it.
Connor picks Rodríguez, citing his diverse kicking game and durability as key factors. He notes that Emmett's style is one-dimensional and that Rodríguez can attack from range with kicks, which Emmett struggles to check. Connor also mentions that Emmett's wrestling is not a reliable threat, as he rarely uses it. He believes Rodríguez's toughness and ability to absorb punches will allow him to outwork Emmett over three rounds.
Emmett's power punching and forward pressure will be too much for Rodríguez as the fight goes on. Rodríguez slows down in later rounds, as seen against Jeremy Stephens. Emmett has great cardio and defensive wrestling to keep it standing. He will close the distance and land big combinations, likely finishing in the fourth or fifth round. Rodríguez's unorthodox striking may be competitive early, but Emmett's durability and pressure will take over.
Paul slightly favors Rodríguez on volume, noting Emmett has a power advantage but Rodríguez has better durability. He expects a close competitive fight and thinks the line is accurate, so he won't bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Yair Rodríguez over Josh Emmett, citing Emmett's controversial wins and Rodríguez's improved performance against Ortega. He predicts a front kick KO in the first round, noting Rodríguez's chin and Emmett's tendency to get hit. He believes Rodríguez is on a higher level than Emmett.
Zane also picks Rodríguez, emphasizing his improved composure and durability. He notes that Emmett's power is a threat, but Rodríguez has never been knocked out and can take shots. Zane highlights that Rodríguez's kicks will be a major problem for Emmett, who has shown vulnerability to low kicks. He also points out that Emmett's wrestling is not a consistent factor, and Rodríguez's range management will frustrate him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 22 of 35 | 62% | 26 of 39 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 48 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 22 of 35 | 62% | 26 of 39 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 48 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 22 of 35 | 62% | 18 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 27 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 23 of 46 | 50% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 22 of 35 | 62% | 18 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 27 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 23 of 46 | 50% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Yair Rodríguez, citing his dynamic striking and unpredictability. He believes Ortega's poor takedown accuracy (24%) will prevent him from getting the fight to the ground, and that Rodríguez's striking will be too much. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway despite the loss, and that he won't have ring rust this time. He placed a small moneyline bet at +137.
Big Brady picks Brian Ortega to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes that Ortega has improved his wrestling significantly, attempting many takedowns in recent fights against top competition like Holloway, Korean Zombie, and Volkanovski. He believes Ortega can take down Rodriguez, who has been taken down frequently in the past, and once on the ground, Ortega's submission game is elite. He acknowledges Rodriguez is the better striker but thinks Ortega's path to victory is through grappling.
Cody argues that Yair Rodríguez's ground game and wrestling are exploitable, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar and Jeremy Stephens where he was taken down easily. He notes that Brian Ortega has improved his wrestling, taking down elite fighters like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Cody believes Ortega will capitalize on Rodríguez's tendency to fall off-balance and secure a submission or dominant ground control.
Daniel Levi picks Yair Rodríguez to win as an underdog, emphasizing that Yair must keep the fight standing and avoid reckless spinning attacks that could lead to takedowns. He notes that Ortega is dangerous on the ground with submissions and has a history of comeback finishes, but believes Yair's discipline and striking can earn a decision. Levi mentions he will likely bet Yair at +155, viewing it as a dog-or-pass situation due to high variance.
Paul agrees with Cody that Ortega is the rightful favorite, citing Yair's overrated win over Korean Zombie where he was seconds from losing. He emphasizes that Ortega's takedowns and submission threat will be decisive, and notes the line moving from -150 to -180. Paul suggests under 4.5 rounds and Ortega by submission as prop bets.
The MMA Guru picks Brian Ortega over Yair Rodríguez, citing Ortega's superior jiu-jitsu and ability to capitalize on Rodríguez's defensive habits. He notes that Rodríguez dips his head when pressured, which could lead to a guillotine choke. He also mentions Ortega's improved footwork and takedowns, and believes Rodríguez's power is overrated. He predicts a third-round submission win for Ortega.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 0 | 230 of 404 | 56% | 251 of 434 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 6:49 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 159 of 352 | 45% | 186 of 383 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 38 of 57 | 66% | 42 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 37 of 79 | 46% | 38 of 80 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 58 of 110 | 52% | 59 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 42 of 84 | 50% | 43 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 38 of 66 | 57% | 46 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:04 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 20 of 47 | 42% | 20 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 43 of 77 | 55% | 49 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:06 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 24 of 64 | 37% | 28 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 0 | 53 of 94 | 56% | 55 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 36 of 78 | 46% | 57 of 99 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 230 of 404 | 56% | 129 of 278 | 66 of 83 | 35 of 43 | 187 of 347 | 22 of 24 | 21 of 33 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 159 of 352 | 45% | 78 of 247 | 24 of 41 | 57 of 64 | 152 of 343 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 38 of 57 | 66% | 16 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 14 of 18 | 38 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 37 of 79 | 46% | 12 of 43 | 7 of 13 | 18 of 23 | 35 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 58 of 110 | 52% | 29 of 69 | 23 of 34 | 6 of 7 | 56 of 107 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 42 of 84 | 50% | 15 of 54 | 5 of 7 | 22 of 23 | 41 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 38 of 66 | 57% | 25 of 53 | 11 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 40 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 22 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 20 of 47 | 42% | 13 of 38 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 19 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 43 of 77 | 55% | 22 of 52 | 13 of 16 | 8 of 9 | 33 of 65 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 7 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 24 of 64 | 37% | 17 of 53 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 24 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 53 of 94 | 56% | 37 of 74 | 11 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 40 of 78 | 12 of 13 | 1 of 3 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 36 of 78 | 46% | 21 of 59 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 8 | 33 of 75 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Max Holloway to win inside the distance, having placed a one-unit bet at +110. He notes that Holloway's technical striking should cut through Rodriguez's theatrical style. Angelo thinks Holloway will close the distance and avoid the spin attacks, and that Rodriguez's two-year layoff is a factor.
Big Brady is confident in Max Holloway, highlighting his insane volume (7.26 significant strikes per minute) and legendary durability (never knocked down). He notes Rodriguez likely needs a KO to win, but Holloway's chin and cardio are elite. Brady expects Holloway to increase volume each round and predicts a fifth-round TKO as damage accumulates.
Cody believes Holloway is a god-tier operator who dominates non-elite opponents. He references Holloway's record 445 significant strikes against Kattar and argues that his losses are only to the best (Volkanovski, Poirier). He expects Holloway to win inside the distance, likely by TKO in the later rounds, and thinks the over 3.5 rounds is a solid play.
Daniel Levi picks Max Holloway, citing his record-breaking output against Calvin Kattar (447 significant strikes landed) and his status as the clear #2 featherweight. He acknowledges Yair Rodríguez's dynamic striking and finishing ability but believes Holloway's volume and pressure will overwhelm Rodríguez as he fatigues. Levi notes that Rodríguez is a live underdog but ultimately trusts Holloway's proven championship level.
Jacob picks Max Holloway to win inside the distance, placing a four-unit bet at +110. He believes there are levels to this and that Holloway will wear on Rodriguez with volume and finish him. Jacob thinks Holloway wants to make a statement as a big favorite.
Paul thinks Max Holloway's volume and durability are unmatched. He notes Holloway's record-breaking strike output and believes Rodríguez can't keep the pace. He's priced out at -720 but still picks Holloway to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.
The Guru picks Max Holloway by third-round TKO (doctor stoppage due to swelling). He expects Rodríguez to have a strong first round with leg kicks and flashy strikes, but Holloway's pressure, body work, and oblique kicks will break Rodríguez down. By the third round, Rodríguez's eye will be swollen shut, forcing a stoppage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 96 of 170 | 56% | 136 of 213 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:10 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 50 of 95 | 52% | 99 of 156 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 5:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 39 of 70 | 55% | 39 of 70 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 41 of 73 | 56% | 62 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 35 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 28 of 49 | 57% | 67 of 97 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 96 of 170 | 56% | 65 of 127 | 14 of 23 | 17 of 20 | 54 of 100 | 6 of 10 | 36 of 60 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 50 of 95 | 52% | 35 of 76 | 10 of 10 | 5 of 9 | 19 of 51 | 6 of 11 | 25 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 39 of 70 | 55% | 18 of 43 | 9 of 13 | 12 of 14 | 34 of 61 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 11 of 24 | 45% | 3 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 41 of 73 | 56% | 37 of 67 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 58 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 11 of 22 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 6 of 7 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 16 of 27 | 59% | 10 of 17 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 28 of 49 | 57% | 23 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 26 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 96 of 170 | 56% | 136 of 213 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:10 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 50 of 95 | 52% | 99 of 156 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 5:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 39 of 70 | 55% | 39 of 70 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 41 of 73 | 56% | 62 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 35 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 28 of 49 | 57% | 67 of 97 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 96 of 170 | 56% | 65 of 127 | 14 of 23 | 17 of 20 | 54 of 100 | 6 of 10 | 36 of 60 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 50 of 95 | 52% | 35 of 76 | 10 of 10 | 5 of 9 | 19 of 51 | 6 of 11 | 25 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 39 of 70 | 55% | 18 of 43 | 9 of 13 | 12 of 14 | 34 of 61 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 11 of 24 | 45% | 3 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 41 of 73 | 56% | 37 of 67 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 58 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 11 of 22 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 6 of 7 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 16 of 27 | 59% | 10 of 17 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 28 of 49 | 57% | 23 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 26 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
We are now treated to a rematch of the main event from UFC Mexico City in September, which tragically ended due to an eye poke within 15 seconds. Rodriguez (12-2, 1 NC; 7-1, 1 NC UFC) is ready to run it back with Stephens (28-16, 1 NC; 16-15, 1 NC UFC), and tensions are high. Trying to keep a lid on this featherweight tilt is referee Kevin MacDonald. There is no touch of the gloves of any kind, as Rodriguez leaps through the air with a flying head kick that clanks off the dome of Stephens. Stephens wings back some angry punches, and the two trade for a moment with bad intentions. Rodriguez clinches up and pushes Stephens against the cage, and Stephens throws a knee to the body, so Rodriguez retaliates with one of his own. The crowd has started to chant "U.S.A." to root on their home country fighter, and as they break apart, Rodriguez lands a powerful elbows over the top. "El Pantera" throws a wild spinning wheel kick that is nowhere near the mark, but he regains position and throws several heavy kicks on both legs. A few body kicks are finding their home on Stephens' midsection, and they are adding up quick. Stephens fires back with everything he has in the form of right hands, but Rodriguez keeps his distance with effective kicks. Another body kick digs in for Rodriguez, and Stephens has lowered his right hand to defend this specific attack. Stephens ducks down possibly for a takedown, but after a little clinch fighting, the two separate. Rodriguez chooses to crash forward into the clinch again, landing a knee up the middle to get there. As Rodriguez slaps a low kick, Stephens rips a right hand to the body of his opponent. The Mexican pulls off a jumping switch kick that catches Stephens flush, but Stephens walks through it. As Stephens presses forward, Rodriguez drops him with a left jab, but cannot take advantage of his grounded adversary as Stephens returns to his feet. Two more kicks get off from Rodriguez, as Stephens chases him around and motions an obscene gesture to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
Rodriguez opens up round two with a spinning kick, but Stephens is able to get up his guard on time. The Mexican fighter then whips a head kick up top, but it is the body kick that follows that does serious damage and makes Stephens buckle over. As Stephens stumbles backwards, Rodriguez swarms him with punches, throwing everything he has into his punches. Stephens defends himself by pursuing a takedown, but Rodriguez is relentless with punches. "Lil' Heathen" is able to survive the assault by going after low takedowns, but Rodriguez walks over it and lands long punches. On his back, Stephens eats wild hammerfists but begins to throw punches while on his back. Rodriguez latches on a brabo choke, and Stephens is trying to roll out of it and survives the submission attempt but is still in grave danger. With pure willpower, Stephens stands back up and unleashes the hardest punches he can possibly throw on Rodriguez. Rodriguez dodges and weaves out of the way of most of these shots, and as Rodriguez catches Stephens to the body again with a kick, Stephens wraps Rodriguez and tries to take him down. Rodriguez rolls through to try to get out of the position but ends up on his back, with Stephens on top raining down punches. El Pantera throws up his legs to search for a triangle choke, and Stephens is not out of the woods yet. In more of a leg scissor choke than a triangle, Stephens breaks the posture and grinds his elbow on his opponent's face as Rodriguez is warned for grabbing the cage. Rodriguez gradually stands up, and Stephens punishes him with a salvo of punches. The Mexican eats several more shots as he finally gets to his feet, and whips a body kick out that backs away Stephens as this crazy round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
Stephens comes out threatening with big shots, and as Rodriguez throws a kick out to back him off, he catches Stephens in the groin with a kick. Stephens calls the ref off so that he can charge at Rodriguez, and he slings looping shots that score on Rodriguez and get the crowd amped up. Rodriguez tries to keep his distance with leg kicks, and Stephens catches him on the end of a right hand that Rodriguez wears well. Suddenly, Stephens drops for a double leg takedown and gets Rodriguez down, and although Rodriguez gets back up, Stephens makes sure to score with several punches on his way up. The two separate, but not for long, as Stephens rushes in to secure another takedown and lands in Rodriguez' guard. Rodriguez attempts to utilize a rubber guard to get hold of Stephens' neck, but Stephens pushes the leg off and tries to get his ground-and-pound going. It is quite unfortunate that this fight is only three rounds instead of five, as Stephens sits on top in half guard while throwing punches from above. Stephens continues to mount offense on top in the form of numerous left hands, and the American then decides to drop down elbows that get heavier the more he throws. A huge left hand from Stephens scores as he stands up and dives down to land it, and after some more thudding strikes, the fight is now over. In a display of great sportsmanship, the two embrace, both thrilled with their performances.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Rodriguez)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Stephens (28-28 Draw)
The Official Result
Yair Rodriguez def. Jeremy Stephens via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Brian Ortega - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 55 of 174 | 31% | 100 of 225 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 124 of 227 | 54% | 153 of 262 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 2 of 28 | 7% | 2 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 9 of 40 | 22% | 9 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 13 of 54 | 24% | 13 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 21 of 42 | 50% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 35 of 52 | 67% | 35 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 13 of 37 | 35% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 25 of 39 | 64% | 35 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 | |
| 5 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 10 of 27 | 37% | 39 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 24 of 38 | 63% | 43 of 63 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aljamain Sterling | 55 of 174 | 31% | 30 of 138 | 20 of 29 | 5 of 7 | 54 of 173 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Brian Ortega | 124 of 227 | 54% | 77 of 175 | 21 of 26 | 26 of 26 | 100 of 198 | 7 of 7 | 17 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aljamain Sterling | 2 of 28 | 7% | 2 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 27 of 44 | 61% | 16 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 8 | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Aljamain Sterling | 9 of 40 | 22% | 5 of 33 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 13 of 54 | 24% | 6 of 44 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Aljamain Sterling | 21 of 42 | 50% | 8 of 27 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 35 of 52 | 67% | 25 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 34 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Aljamain Sterling | 13 of 37 | 35% | 8 of 29 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Brian Ortega | 25 of 39 | 64% | 13 of 26 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 6 | |
| 5 | Aljamain Sterling | 10 of 27 | 37% | 7 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 24 of 38 | 63% | 17 of 31 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 16 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
On merit and divisional relevance, this probably should have been the main event, but that divisional relevance was obliterated by Ortega’s weight cut failure, leading to a 153-pound catchweight affair. It’s still a hell of a fight, however, and when the featherweight contenders go to work, Herb Dean will be tasked with his final referee assignment of the event. Both men are in orthodox stance to open things up, and both come up short with reaching jabs in the first exchanges. Ortega goes southpaw. Thirty seconds in, Sterling feints his first level change, but no takedown attempt follows. Sterling throws a one-two that Ortega slips by pulling his head straight back, then nearly spills him with a nicely timed low kick. Sterling lands a pair of glancing punches and easily eludes the counter. Ortega is barely throwing anything back thus far in the fight. As I type that, he launches a blistering right cross that comes up just barely short. Two minutes left in the first round and Sterling lands another solid low kick—an investment in attrition, especially if this goes into the scheduled fourth and fifth rounds. Sterling with another chopping low kick that lands high on the calf. With under 30 seconds to go, it’s been all Sterling, but Ortega comes forward and lands his best punch of the round before the horn.
10-9 Sterling.
Round 2
Sterling is busy with the jab right away. Ortega throws a high kick that Sterling evades by slipping his head off the center line. Sterling is methodical, coming forward with his jab and cross, nailing Ortega with a calf kick anytime he stands his ground. It isn’t dazzling but it’s brutally effective, as Ortega is throwing next to nothing, aside from single big shots. Sterling tries a spinning backfist that glances without damage. Ortega takes the front foot midway through the round, backing up the former bantamweight champ and throwing righty haymakers. Sterling gives ground, keeps his chin out of range and keeps working on the lead leg. Sterling catches Ortega with a sweeping right hook and Ortega backs off, pawing at his left eye. Sterling looks at the referee, who states that it was a punch, not a finger, and indicates that they should keep fighting. They do not do so immediately, Sterling does not press the issue, and the result is effectively a 45-second timeout after no foul. Once they resume fighting, the round ends without any more substantive offense from either man.
10-9 Sterling.
Round 3
Sterling has to walk two-thirds of the way across the Octagon in order to touch gloves with Ortega; a decent metaphor for this fight in general. Ortega comes forward, snapping out his jab, and tags Sterling with a low kick. Ortega fires off another kick, this one clattering audibly off of Sterling’s cup, but Sterling waves off any intervention by Dean. Sterling continues to give ground in the face of Ortega’s advance, but is still landing more and better strikes. Ortega gets through with another good leg kick, and Sterling catches his next one, hoisting the kicking leg and punching him before letting go. Sterling snaps Ortega’s head back with a jab, then sits him down with a calf kick. Ortega pops back to his feet and lands a good low kick of his own. Sterling steps forward and connects with a long jab. Ortega marches Sterling to the fence but can’t capitalize before he slips out the side. Under a minute to go and Ortega is definitely the aggressor, but that shouldn’t be enough to win the round in the face of the disparity in offense. Ortega catches a kick but can’t land anything of consequence. Ortega fires off a stream of punches at the clapper, but it’s Sterling who connects with a spinning back elbow.
10-9 Sterling.
Round 4
The fourth round begins with Ortega down three to zero on our scorecard, but showing signs of life at the end of the last frame. “T-City” keeps up the pressure, stalking Sterling and trying to back him into the fence. Sterling continues to give ground, but he is still the one landing more and harder strikes. Ortega finally corrals him against the cage, but Sterling slips a couple of haymakers and makes his way back to open space. Two minutes into the round, Ortega is game but still a step behind, as he has been for essentially the entire fight. Sterling snaps his head back with a jab, then delivers another kick to Ortega’s battered left calf. Ortega makes things interesting, swarming forward, catching Sterling against the fence and throwing a flurry of punches with both hands. Many of them glance, but enough of them land that Sterling has to cover and back off. Ortega clinches with him against the fence, and Sterling dumps him to the canvas a moment later, settling in the jiu-jitsu ace’s full guard. Sterling is defensively sound and heavy on top, keeping his posture low while throwing short punches and looking to pass the guard. He postures up and drops a couple of punches and elbows before the horn.
10-9 Sterling.
Round 5
Ortega gets the now-or-never pep talk from his corner before the final round, and comes out hot. Sterling meets him with yet another hard low kick, but he’s forced to retreat in the face of Ortega’s attack. Ortega catches Sterling with a wide hook, his best punch of the fight, and Sterling backs off. Ortega initiates a takedown, but Sterling lands in top position, in Ortega’s full guard. Sterling postures up to look for ground strikes, then stand up out of the guard, and as Ortega gets up, Sterling catches him with a timed, but legal, knee to the dome. Ortega gets to his feet and catches Sterling with a right hand that hurts him. Sterling is in retreat, trying to recover and evade further damage as Ortega gives chase. He avoids the follow-up, but the strategy is so obvious that he draws a warning from Dean for timidity. Ortega crashes the pocket and clinches, but as the go down, it’s Sterling who takes Ortega’s back. Sterling sinks his hooks in and looks for a choke, but Ortega sweeps to top position. Sterling sweeps him right back and throws leather from guard until the horn.
10-9 Sterling (50-45 Sterling).
The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. Brian Ortega via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
Angelo is extremely confident in Aljamain Sterling, calling him a backpack grappler with developed striking and spectacular ground game. He dismisses Brian Ortega as not very good anymore, relying only on toughness. He expects Sterling to get takedowns and dominate on the ground, likely by decision due to Ortega's toughness. He says this is one of his most confident picks on the card.
Big Brady picks Aljamain Sterling to win by decision, citing Sterling's minute-winning ability on the feet and slick grappling. He notes that Sterling throws high volume and can take Ortega down, though he must watch for submissions. He believes Ortega is dangerous but hittable, and that Sterling will control the fight and win a decision.
Connor notes that Brian Ortega's game has disintegrated; he used to rely on durability but now gets hurt early in fights. He highlights that Ortega is a guard grappler but hasn't gotten a guard submission since 2017, and his wrestling is an afterthought. Sterling, on the other hand, is a much better wrestler who can dictate grappling exchanges and pile up volume on the feet. Connor is curious to see how Sterling handles Ortega's guard, but believes Sterling's positional grappling will keep him on top.
The host sees this as a fun grappling matchup, but thinks Sterling's advantage in wrestling and control will shut down Ortega's aggressive BJJ. He expects Sterling to grind out a boring fight and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling to win by decision, citing Ortega's poor weight cut and zombie-like appearance at weigh-ins. He believes Sterling is more disciplined and professional, with better wrestling and positional grappling. He notes that Sterling can avoid Ortega's submission threats by pushing him against the cage and working from the back. He also thinks Sterling will do well on the feet, as Ortega has looked lost there at times.
Zane agrees that Sterling is the pick, citing Ortega's decline and the fact that he gets hurt in every fight now. He points out that Ortega's entire career has been about absorbing damage, and that Sterling's wrestling and speed will give Ortega problems. Zane also notes that Sterling has never faced a guard grappler like Ortega, but believes Sterling's mindful positional grappling will avoid spending much time in Ortega's guard.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 63 of 195 | 32% | 69 of 201 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 106 of 206 | 51% | 113 of 214 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 15 of 45 | 33% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 29 of 57 | 50% | 34 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 | |
| 2 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 16 of 48 | 33% | 16 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 22 of 46 | 47% | 22 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 32 of 102 | 31% | 32 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 55 of 103 | 53% | 57 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | 63 of 195 | 32% | 52 of 180 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 61 of 192 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Brian Ortega | 106 of 206 | 51% | 75 of 172 | 13 of 15 | 18 of 19 | 75 of 161 | 6 of 7 | 25 of 38 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Lopes | 15 of 45 | 33% | 11 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Brian Ortega | 29 of 57 | 50% | 24 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 26 | |
| 2 | Diego Lopes | 16 of 48 | 33% | 12 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 22 of 46 | 47% | 11 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 10 | 20 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Diego Lopes | 32 of 102 | 31% | 29 of 97 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 101 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 55 of 103 | 53% | 40 of 87 | 10 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 41 of 87 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 12 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lopes (-175), Ortega (+145)
Round 1
A backdrop of the Mexico City Metropolitan Cathedral is the fighting area for this next bout, one that signals the victory of Mexico in winning its independence. A relatively short-notice matchup between these upcoming fighters turned into a spectacle at UFC 303, when Ortega (16-3, 1 NC; 8-3, 1 NC UFC) realized that he would not be anywhere close to reaching the featherweight limit. When the weight cut down to 155 pounds still sickened him to the point of withdrawing from the bout, Lopes (25-6, 4-1 UFC) made modern UFC history when Dan Ige stepped in just a few hours before the match. Rescheduled for this September showcase and neither man having issue making weight, the two elite featherweights will settle things. Referee Marc Goddard draws the assignment for this intense 145-pound contest, and he checks the fighters in. They clap hands, and proceed cautiously. Ortega leads off with his boxing, sticking out a few short strings of punches. Lopes responds with a low kick, and a remarkably powerful barrage of blows that knock Ortega off his feet. Ortega recovers to try to escape, and Lopes follows him, lifts him up and hurls him to the mat like a side of beef. Lopes decides to get into the guard so he can hammer Ortega with ground-and-pound, and he shrugs off a triangle choke to bust up Ortega’s eye. Lopes lowers himself down again to attack, once more pushing past a triangle, and the cut on Ortega’s left eye is even worse. Ortega turns over to give up his back, and the Brazilian leaps on top of him and lays into him with right hands. Ortega works his way off the fence and smacks Lopes with an upkick, so Lopes responds by grabbing hold of the ankle and lowering himself down to attack. Ortega’s snake-like offensive guard threatens every step of the way, and Lopes appears to want to make a point by either submitting Ortega or playing fearlessly in his guard. Lopes cannot find a way in, so he backs off and beckons Ortega back to his feet. Ortega thanks him for this by landing a pair of punches, and Lopes returns fire to that damaged eye. Ortega plants two kicks in the inside of his foe’s leg, and he connects with an uppercut and a left hand. Lopes jabs his way in, and Ortega’s is far more concussive as he knocks Lopes back. Lopes scoops a left hook around the guard and square into Ortega’s jaw, and Ortega responds with a blitz that is met with an elbow. Lopes sticks out his jab and follows it with a low kick, and he checks a kick coming back his way. Ortega catches a kick and winds up a right hand, but Lopes beats him to the punch when wrenching it back and clips Ortega with a three-fist bouquet. Lopes loops a left over the guard, and he connects with three punches before Ortega can give one back. “T-City” plants a kick to the ribs, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Round 2
The two men high-five before engaging again. Ortega leads off behind his jab, and Lopes sways as his mullet follows behind him. Ortega boxes his way in, and has his chin checked by powerful punches from the Brazilian. Lopes walks through a jab to load up on a right hand, and he tags a speeding Ortega with a right hand as Ortega comes by him. Ortega lets his right hand fly as well, and Lopes ducks and works the body. Lopes gets off a few leg kicks, and Ortega shoots in for a single and is uppercutted several times to stop his approach. Lopes keeps working on the front leg during the lulls, and Ortega loads up on a pair on his own side. Lopes wings a right hand that is easily parried, and he hops forward with a left hook that just misses the mark as well. The looping Lopes right hand knocks Ortega back, and he shakes it off and eats a subsequent head kick like a chile relleno. Lopes darts in with two punches, Ortega pays him back, and they trade power shots. Lopes blasts the former title challenger with a leg kick that knocks Ortega off his feet, and a huge welt has developed on and around his shin. Lopes lets him stand back up, and he kicks the same spot once before Ortega races at him. The two trade jabs, and Ortega follows one with a straight right hand. Lopes’ counter combo bounces off the guard, and he slaps a low kick as Ortega fails on checking it. Lopes plants a right hand on the jaw at the end of three punches, and Ortega counters with a right up top and a few jabs. Ortega partially checks a chopping kick, and his jab reddens the nose of the Brazilian. The round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Round 3
The fighters clap hands one final time as the last round begins, and Ortega is not sure-footed as he slips on his front leg. Lopes scoops a left hand around the guard and nails Ortega’s swollen shin with another kick. Ortega jabs the body, and Lopes sits down on a left hook that clubs “T-City” on the side of the noggin. The featherweights trade jabs, and Ortega attacks his own leg kick. Lopes does the same with another kick, and he catches Ortega in the midst of a combination. Ortega stands in the pocket and trades leather, and Lopes clips him again but Ortega is right there to deliver punishment in response. Lopes absorbs several straight punches, and he loads up on responses. Lopes snaps the head back with bitter strikes, and Ortega remains right in front of him putting his hands in his face. Lopes chops the front leg and goes after a push kick, and Ortega catches the second but sets it down. Ortega sneakily works his way into a takedown attempt, and the Brazilian stops it in its tracks and pushes Ortega away. Lopes nails the front leg with his umpteenth kick, and Ortega pops Lopes in the chops with a big right hand. Lopes hurts Ortega with a right hand and a left, and Ortega wipes his eye as if he got poked, but it appeared to be a punch and not an outstretched digit. Lopes races at him throwing hands, but he ties him up and holds on instead of taking him down or otherwise attacking. They separate, and Lopes apologizes in case he was a poke after all. Ortega acknowledges it, and the two start slugging. Ortega fights behind his jab, and Lopes wobbles him twice with massive left hooks. Ortega’s chin is made of sterner stuff as he rarely backs off, but eventually Lopes’ left hook finds its home in the perfect way. Lopes sends “T-City” flying, and he runs after him and takes his back to try to submit the grappler. He bails from that submission setup to stand and bang for the remaining seconds, and he batters Ortega with a final flurry of fists.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes (30-27 Lopes)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes (30-27 Lopes)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lopes (30-27 Lopes)
The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Brian Ortega via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Diego Lopes confidently, having placed a full unit on him at -175. He dismisses concerns about Lopes fading in the third round of his last fight, attributing it to the chaos of multiple opponent and weight class changes on short notice. He believes Lopes is the better striker and grappler, and that Ortega's takedown accuracy is poor. He criticizes Ortega for missing weight and calls him a 'fat slob', expecting Lopes to steamroll him again.
Big Brady picks Lopes, citing his rapid improvement, youth, and hunger. He notes Lopes can win by decision or early finish, but expects Ortega's toughness to carry him to a decision loss. He predicts Lopes wins 29-28.
Daniel picks Diego Lopes but with low confidence, citing Lopes' tendency to fade in third rounds and Ortega's legendary third-round finishing ability. He thinks Lopes will win a controversial split decision by taking the first two rounds, but worries about Ortega's durability and Lopes' cardio. He notes Lopes' dangerous hooks and Ortega's ability to weather storms.
Daniel Vreeland picks Brian Ortega as a dog, citing his grappling advantage as the difference maker. He notes Ortega nearly submitted Alexander Volkanovski and controlled Yair Rodriguez on the mat. He believes Diego Lopez relies on scrambles, while Ortega catches people in scrambles. He trusts Ortega's grappling to hold up and likes the plus money.
Jeff Fox picks Diego Lopes because he is bigger, younger, and can grapple a bit. He took Lopes last time and is sticking with him, noting Lopes is on a roll.
The transcript does not discuss this fight. The host covers other fights but not Lopes vs Ortega.
Lopez's BJJ background will save him from the threat Ortega normally poses on the ground. Lopez also provides more threats in the striking realm. Expects Lopez to win inside the distance.
The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes. He notes that Ortega is a slow starter and Lopes is more switched on currently. He believes Lopes has better takedown defense and grappling conditioning than Yair Rodriguez, and his striking is more consistent. He also mentions Ortega has taken a lot of damage and has had only one fight in over two years. He sees Lopes winning by finish or decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Ortega | 1 | 55 of 115 | 47% | 64 of 135 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 28 of 73 | 38% | 47 of 104 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 5:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Ortega | 1 | 45 of 91 | 49% | 50 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 6 of 28 | 21% | 7 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 | |
| 2 | Brian Ortega | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 39 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 | |
| 3 | Brian Ortega | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Ortega | 55 of 115 | 47% | 36 of 91 | 11 of 15 | 8 of 9 | 34 of 86 | 9 of 12 | 12 of 17 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 28 of 73 | 38% | 26 of 69 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Ortega | 45 of 91 | 49% | 28 of 69 | 10 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 24 of 62 | 9 of 12 | 12 of 17 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 6 of 28 | 21% | 5 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brian Ortega | 9 of 17 | 52% | 7 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 22 of 44 | 50% | 21 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 20 | |
| 3 | Brian Ortega | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ortega with low confidence, citing the first fight where Ortega was winning before his shoulder injury. He notes the elevation and crowd in Mexico could favor Rodriguez, but trusts his brain over his gut. He worries about Ortega's long layoff but believes he can squeak out a win.
Big Brady picks Yair Rodríguez to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Rodríguez has been more active and looked impressive against Josh Emmett, while Ortega has had a long layoff. He believes Rodríguez has the advantage on the feet with his kicks and power, and that Ortega is hittable. He doubts Ortega's wrestling will be effective, as Rodríguez stuffed takedowns in their first fight. He expects Rodríguez to dominate at range and eventually finish Ortega.
Cody picks Ortega, noting that in their first fight Ortega was winning before the shoulder injury. He believes Ortega's skills haven't digressed, his jiu-jitsu is second to none, and his wrestling is good enough to take down Rodriguez. He also mentions Ortega's ability to come back better after layoffs, as he did after the Holloway loss. He considers the plus 130 price good value.
The host recalls the first fight where Rodríguez kept Ortega at bay with striking and Ortega's only success was a clinch takedown that led to an injury. He believes Rodríguez needs to keep the fight standing, and even if it goes to the ground, Rodríguez has worked on his jiu-jitsu to defend and get back to his feet. He predicts Rodríguez will finish Ortega by the third round.
Paul is leaning towards Ortega but is hesitant due to the year-and-a-half layoff, Ortega's age (33), and his recent record (lost last two, hasn't finished in six years). However, he acknowledges Ortega matched up well in the first fight and has the skills to win. He says if he had a gun to his head he'd pick Ortega, but it's a wild card pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 22 of 35 | 62% | 26 of 39 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 48 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 22 of 35 | 62% | 26 of 39 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 48 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 22 of 35 | 62% | 18 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 27 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 23 of 46 | 50% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 22 of 35 | 62% | 18 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 27 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 23 of 46 | 50% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Yair Rodríguez, citing his dynamic striking and unpredictability. He believes Ortega's poor takedown accuracy (24%) will prevent him from getting the fight to the ground, and that Rodríguez's striking will be too much. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway despite the loss, and that he won't have ring rust this time. He placed a small moneyline bet at +137.
Big Brady picks Brian Ortega to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes that Ortega has improved his wrestling significantly, attempting many takedowns in recent fights against top competition like Holloway, Korean Zombie, and Volkanovski. He believes Ortega can take down Rodriguez, who has been taken down frequently in the past, and once on the ground, Ortega's submission game is elite. He acknowledges Rodriguez is the better striker but thinks Ortega's path to victory is through grappling.
Cody argues that Yair Rodríguez's ground game and wrestling are exploitable, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar and Jeremy Stephens where he was taken down easily. He notes that Brian Ortega has improved his wrestling, taking down elite fighters like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Cody believes Ortega will capitalize on Rodríguez's tendency to fall off-balance and secure a submission or dominant ground control.
Daniel Levi picks Yair Rodríguez to win as an underdog, emphasizing that Yair must keep the fight standing and avoid reckless spinning attacks that could lead to takedowns. He notes that Ortega is dangerous on the ground with submissions and has a history of comeback finishes, but believes Yair's discipline and striking can earn a decision. Levi mentions he will likely bet Yair at +155, viewing it as a dog-or-pass situation due to high variance.
Paul agrees with Cody that Ortega is the rightful favorite, citing Yair's overrated win over Korean Zombie where he was seconds from losing. He emphasizes that Ortega's takedowns and submission threat will be decisive, and notes the line moving from -150 to -180. Paul suggests under 4.5 rounds and Ortega by submission as prop bets.
The MMA Guru picks Brian Ortega over Yair Rodríguez, citing Ortega's superior jiu-jitsu and ability to capitalize on Rodríguez's defensive habits. He notes that Rodríguez dips his head when pressured, which could lead to a guillotine choke. He also mentions Ortega's improved footwork and takedowns, and believes Rodríguez's power is overrated. He predicts a third-round submission win for Ortega.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 214 of 353 | 60% | 229 of 377 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 3:51 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 88 of 234 | 37% | 101 of 250 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 3 | 1 | 0:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 30 of 52 | 57% | 30 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 16 of 51 | 31% | 16 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 38 of 61 | 62% | 38 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 23 of 58 | 39% | 23 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 61 of 99 | 61% | 65 of 109 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:13 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 22 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0:41 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 35 of 58 | 60% | 46 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:33 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 14 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:13 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 50 of 83 | 60% | 50 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 26 of 70 | 37% | 26 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 214 of 353 | 60% | 146 of 270 | 20 of 26 | 48 of 57 | 158 of 254 | 3 of 6 | 53 of 93 |
| Brian Ortega | 88 of 234 | 37% | 59 of 193 | 20 of 26 | 9 of 15 | 82 of 225 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 30 of 52 | 57% | 14 of 32 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 13 | 30 of 50 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 16 of 51 | 31% | 9 of 39 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 7 | 15 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 38 of 61 | 62% | 19 of 38 | 5 of 8 | 14 of 15 | 38 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 23 of 58 | 39% | 14 of 47 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 22 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 61 of 99 | 61% | 46 of 81 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 15 | 30 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 57 |
| Brian Ortega | 17 of 40 | 42% | 12 of 32 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 35 of 58 | 60% | 28 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 36 |
| Brian Ortega | 6 of 15 | 40% | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 50 of 83 | 60% | 39 of 69 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 47 of 79 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 26 of 70 | 37% | 19 of 62 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 66 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Volkanovski, citing his speed, footwork, and takedowns. He notes that Volkanovski is the better striker and wrestler, while Ortega is the better grappler. Angelo believes Volkanovski will keep the fight at range, use leg kicks, and piece up Ortega. He doesn't expect Volkanovski to shoot takedowns due to Ortega's guillotine.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision. He believes Volkanovski is the better striker with superior volume and defense, and he will win the minutes of the fight. He acknowledges Ortega's danger on the ground and his power, but thinks Volkanovski can avoid submissions and outpoint him over five rounds.
Cody acknowledges Volkanovski's near-perfect UFC run, strong wrestling, cardio, and fight IQ, but is hesitant because Ortega is a worthy challenger with excellent jiu-jitsu that could neutralize Volkanovski's wrestling. He notes Ortega's striking improvements and durability, but ultimately leans Volkanovski due to his ability to find a way to win. He prefers to attack the over rounds rather than the moneyline.
Daniel Levi picks Alexander Volkanovski but is hesitant, acknowledging that MMA is not a logical sport. He notes that all tape, stats, and logic point to Volkanovski winning, but Ortega has the ability to hurt and finish opponents. Levi debunks the myth that Ortega can't throw volume, citing his high strike attempts against Renato Moicano, Max Holloway, and Korean Zombie. He is worried about Volkanovski being hurt, as seen in the Max Holloway fight, but ultimately goes with the champion.
Jacob picks Volkanovski, calling him very technical. He questions whether Ortega has improved his striking, particularly his jab and check left. Jacob thinks Volkanovski will keep distance and work leg kicks. He's rooting for Ortega but expects Volkanovski to win.
The host picks Alexander Volkanovski to retain his title via decision. He believes Volkanovski is a master at executing game plans and will use feints, leg kicks, and movement to stifle Ortega. He thinks Ortega's improved striking is overrated based on the Korean Zombie fight and that Volkanovski's submission defense will keep him safe. He expects a masterful performance and a decision win.
Paul is confident in Volkanovski, citing his strength, tactical fighting, reach advantage, and ability to push Ortega off when he tries to tie up. He references Volkanovski's wins over Max Holloway and Ortega's loss to Holloway where Ortega was badly beaten. He believes Volkanovski wins by decision and likes the over due to Ortega's durability.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski over Brian Ortega, citing Volkanovski's composure, leg kicks, and body work. He notes that Ortega is a live dog but Volkanovski has shown he can recover from being dropped. He expects Volkanovski to chop at the legs in the first two rounds, then finish with a fourth-round TKO as Ortega's mobility is compromised. He highlights Volkanovski's undefeated record at featherweight and wins over Holloway and Aldo.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Ortega | 2 | 127 of 212 | 59% | 129 of 214 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 62 of 163 | 38% | 64 of 166 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Ortega | 1 | 24 of 39 | 61% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brian Ortega | 1 | 23 of 37 | 62% | 24 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 14 of 34 | 41% | 14 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brian Ortega | 0 | 28 of 42 | 66% | 28 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 7 of 32 | 21% | 7 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Brian Ortega | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 18 of 36 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 10 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Brian Ortega | 0 | 35 of 59 | 59% | 35 of 59 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Ortega | 127 of 212 | 59% | 64 of 135 | 22 of 28 | 41 of 49 | 118 of 199 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 6 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 62 of 163 | 38% | 35 of 127 | 14 of 21 | 13 of 15 | 62 of 162 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Ortega | 24 of 39 | 61% | 11 of 24 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 9 | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 14 of 26 | 53% | 4 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brian Ortega | 23 of 37 | 62% | 14 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 14 of 34 | 41% | 12 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brian Ortega | 28 of 42 | 66% | 13 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 13 | 27 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 7 of 32 | 21% | 2 of 23 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 7 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Brian Ortega | 17 of 35 | 48% | 5 of 18 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 11 | 15 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 8 of 26 | 30% | 1 of 18 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Brian Ortega | 35 of 59 | 59% | 21 of 43 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 35 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 19 of 45 | 42% | 16 of 40 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks the Korean Zombie due to his superior striking defense and output, Ortega's poor striking defense (absorbs 7.36 strikes per minute), and the two-year layoff for Ortega. He believes the fight will stay standing because Ortega lacks wrestling to get takedowns, and Jung's takedown defense is excellent. He predicts a late stoppage (4th or 5th round).
The MMA Guru picks the Korean Zombie because Ortega is a slow starter who gets hit a lot, and Zombie is one of the best first-round fighters in the division. He notes Ortega's long layoff and the damage he took against Holloway, while Zombie has never been submitted and has crisp standup. He predicts a second-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 0 | 290 of 490 | 59% | 307 of 507 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 110 of 292 | 37% | 112 of 294 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 40 of 84 | 47% | 46 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 19 of 65 | 29% | 19 of 65 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 66 of 126 | 52% | 66 of 126 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 33 of 92 | 35% | 33 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 50 of 84 | 59% | 54 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 30 of 81 | 37% | 32 of 83 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 134 of 196 | 68% | 141 of 203 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 28 of 54 | 51% | 28 of 54 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 290 of 490 | 59% | 244 of 430 | 41 of 55 | 5 of 5 | 281 of 479 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
| Brian Ortega | 110 of 292 | 37% | 87 of 267 | 16 of 18 | 7 of 7 | 101 of 282 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 40 of 84 | 47% | 30 of 70 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 39 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 19 of 65 | 29% | 13 of 59 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 66 of 126 | 52% | 60 of 118 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 66 of 126 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 33 of 92 | 35% | 29 of 88 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 90 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 50 of 84 | 59% | 44 of 76 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 50 of 82 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 30 of 81 | 37% | 23 of 73 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 77 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 134 of 196 | 68% | 110 of 166 | 24 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 126 of 188 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Brian Ortega | 28 of 54 | 51% | 22 of 47 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 51 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 27 of 77 | 35% | 27 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Frankie Edgar | 1 | 25 of 76 | 32% | 25 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Ortega | 0 | 27 of 77 | 35% | 27 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Frankie Edgar | 1 | 25 of 76 | 32% | 25 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Ortega | 27 of 77 | 35% | 12 of 59 | 10 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Frankie Edgar | 25 of 76 | 32% | 21 of 71 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 66 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Ortega | 27 of 77 | 35% | 12 of 59 | 10 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Frankie Edgar | 25 of 76 | 32% | 21 of 71 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 66 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 |
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Yair Rodríguez, citing his dynamic striking and unpredictability. He believes Ortega's poor takedown accuracy (24%) will prevent him from getting the fight to the ground, and that Rodríguez's striking will be too much. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway despite the loss, and that he won't have ring rust this time. He placed a small moneyline bet at +137.
Big Brady picks Brian Ortega to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes that Ortega has improved his wrestling significantly, attempting many takedowns in recent fights against top competition like Holloway, Korean Zombie, and Volkanovski. He believes Ortega can take down Rodriguez, who has been taken down frequently in the past, and once on the ground, Ortega's submission game is elite. He acknowledges Rodriguez is the better striker but thinks Ortega's path to victory is through grappling.
Cody argues that Yair Rodríguez's ground game and wrestling are exploitable, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar and Jeremy Stephens where he was taken down easily. He notes that Brian Ortega has improved his wrestling, taking down elite fighters like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Cody believes Ortega will capitalize on Rodríguez's tendency to fall off-balance and secure a submission or dominant ground control.
Daniel Levi picks Yair Rodríguez to win as an underdog, emphasizing that Yair must keep the fight standing and avoid reckless spinning attacks that could lead to takedowns. He notes that Ortega is dangerous on the ground with submissions and has a history of comeback finishes, but believes Yair's discipline and striking can earn a decision. Levi mentions he will likely bet Yair at +155, viewing it as a dog-or-pass situation due to high variance.
Paul agrees with Cody that Ortega is the rightful favorite, citing Yair's overrated win over Korean Zombie where he was seconds from losing. He emphasizes that Ortega's takedowns and submission threat will be decisive, and notes the line moving from -150 to -180. Paul suggests under 4.5 rounds and Ortega by submission as prop bets.
The MMA Guru picks Brian Ortega over Yair Rodríguez, citing Ortega's superior jiu-jitsu and ability to capitalize on Rodríguez's defensive habits. He notes that Rodríguez dips his head when pressured, which could lead to a guillotine choke. He also mentions Ortega's improved footwork and takedowns, and believes Rodríguez's power is overrated. He predicts a third-round submission win for Ortega.
Pitbull nearly snapped an arm bar last min. Yair was dirty in certain spots. The headkick on Pit should have been the KO, no idea how Pit eats it.