Career Averages - Jake Matthews
Career Averages - André Fialho
Jake Matthews
André Fialho
Jake Matthews - Fight History
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mattthews (-325); Harris (+250)
Round 1
Thankfully no human ejecta had to be mopped off the mat before welterweights Matthews (22-8; 15-8 UFC) and Harris (19-7; 4-3 UFC) go to work under the watchful eye of referee Jason Herzog. Harris is here on three weeks' notice in place of Muslim Salkihov, who withdrew due to injury. Both gentlemen are in orthodox stance, and the contrast in stances and styles is fascinating: Matthews compact, with a high guard, the lanky “Mocambique” with a wider, looser kickboxer’s stance. Through the first minute there is little action; both fighters throw, but the cleanest contacts are a pair of inadvertent head clashes in the pocket. Hopefully that does not portend another weird finish here. Matthews starts to land more cleanly, tagging Harris with a pair of one-twos, and the Guyana native goes staggering backward. Matthews pursues, a bit too aggressively, as Harris meets him with a pair of wild haymakers that glance but still have a visible effect. “The Celtic Kid” shakes it off, composes himself and goes back to work with his clean, basic boxing combinations, and more of what he throws is landing solidly. Under 90 seconds to go and Harris appears to be largely recovered, but Matthews is continuing to catch him cleanly with two- and three-piece combos. He slips a big punch from Harris and clips him with a counter left hook. Matthews nais Harris with a right uppercut-left hook combo at the 10-second clapper that has him staggering at the horn.
10-9 Matthews.
Round 2
Harris shoots for a takedown instantly, switching to a guard pull when Matthews sprawls. Matthews transitions straight into a mounted triangle choke, but can’t quite secure it. He lets it go but ends up in Harris’ half guard. Harris sits up into octopus guard, trying to sweep or at least get his head out of the way, but Matthews is all over it, and flattens Harris onto his back. Matthews is still in half guard, possibly framing up a topside choke. Harris grabs a guillotine, but it’s on the opposite side and will only get him into trouble. He lets it go, but has nearly succeeded in getting full guard. Then, in a flash, Matthews cuts through Harris’s guard and slides to mount. With a minute to go, Matthews is dropping short elbows. Harris gets back half guard, but Matthews attacks the far arm with a kimura. Harris rolls through to top position, but Matthews keeps the arm and is still working on it at the horn.
10-9 Matthews.
Round 3
“The Celtic Kid” has put in 10 minutes of largely dominant work thus far, but his corner yells at him to get the finish, and he comes out aggressively. However, it’s Harris who lands first, with a pair of grazing shots. Matthews comes back with a right hand that blasts Harris so hard that he goes down headfirst, his forehead clattering off the Octagon floor. The second impact might actually have woken Harris up, but he is clearly still dazed as Matthews follows him to the canvas and takes his back instantly. Matthews with a body triangle and four full minutes to work, and he looks for a rear-naked choke. He can’t get it, and doesn’t like something about the position, so he moves to top position and sets up in his opponent’s half guard. The midpoint of the round passes and Harris appears to be recovered, but he’s in a huge hole here. Matthews is still in half guard, but riding fairly high and clearly looking to pass to mount as he drops elbows and short punches at the base of the cage. Matthews applies heavy pressure, then moves to mount, looking for a shoulder choke. It looks as if he might get it, but after a few moments, he gives up on it and starts dropping punches. The 10-second clapper sounds, and Harris will hear the final horn.
10-8 Matthews (30-26 Matthews).
The Official Result
Jake Matthews def. Carlston Harris via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-27, 30-27)
AJ is confident Matthews will dominate, calling Harris washed and noting his poor recent performances. He highlights Matthews' fast hands and good combos, while Harris is slow and sloppy. AJ predicts a knockout, possibly in the first or second round, and thinks Matthews will show out. He also notes the travel advantage for Matthews (Australia) vs Harris (Brazil).
AJ picks Jake Matthews confidently, calling Carlston Harris washed and past his prime at 38. He notes Harris's slow, herky-jerky striking and recent losses, while Matthews is a fluid kickboxer with high-level grappling. AJ predicts a Matthews finish, possibly by knockout or submission, given Matthews's recent form and Harris's vulnerabilities.
AJ calls Matthews an 'absolute lock,' believing Harris is washed and old. He notes Matthews is in his prime with clean kickboxing and strong wrestling, while Harris has looked slow and sloppy recently. AJ predicts a finish, possibly by KO or submission, given Harris's decline and short notice.
Angelo picks Jake Matthews to win and finish, noting that Harris is past his prime, less durable, and stepping up on short notice. He believes Matthews is well-rounded and should find a finish.
Angelo is very confident that Jake Matthews will win, citing his power, experience, and the fact that Carlston Harris is coming off a brutal knockout loss. He believes Matthews is the better overall fighter and expects the line to move heavily in Matthews' favor. He advises betting on Matthews now before the odds shorten.
Angelo picks Jake Matthews because he is the better overall fighter, younger, and has more energy. He notes that Matthews is the better wrestler and striker, and that Carlston Harris is past his prime. He is confident and expects bets on Matthews.
Big Brady picks Jake Matthews but is hesitant, calling him the biggest ball dropper and inconsistent. He notes Harris is a front choke merchant and Matthews was just front choked by Neil Magny. He believes Matthews should win but warns he might find a way to lose. He predicts a decision win, saying Matthews should finish but probably won't.
Cody picks Harris as a live underdog, citing Matthews' history of getting submitted in the third round when tired. He notes Harris' submission skills (anaconda choke) and that Matthews has been submitted four times in the UFC. Cody believes Harris can catch Matthews late if he survives the early rounds. He also mentions that Matthews' wins are over low-level competition.
Levi picks Matthews but with low confidence, noting his history of choking in big spots. He acknowledges Harris's front choke threat and Matthews's recent submission loss. However, he believes Harris's bad chin and age give Matthews a good chance to knock him out.
Jacob picks Jake Matthews but is hesitant because he feels this fight could be a trap. He notes that Carlston Harris is unorthodox and has power, and Matthews has been submitted before. He warns that Matthews might not use his wrestling and could get caught.
Lucrative James picks Jake Matthews, citing his youth (31 vs 38), better boxing, head movement, and overall skill set compared to Carlston Harris. He notes Matthews' unfortunate last loss due to a referee error but believes he is the better fighter everywhere. He highlights Harris's poor durability, cardio, and recent knockout losses, and expects Matthews to land clean shots and get a knockout. He also mentions Matthews' improved chin and comfort in the UFC.
The host picks Matthews to win inside the distance, believing his well-rounded game and experience will overcome Harris's reckless striking. He notes Harris is old, hasn't fought in over a year, and is on a two-fight losing streak by knockout. He expects Matthews to counter and outgrapple Harris, leading to a knockout.
The host picks Jake Matthews over short-notice replacement Carlston Harris, noting Matthews' sharper striking and Harris' over-aggressiveness. He expects Matthews to counter with big shots and eventually find a knockout.
Paul also leans Harris, noting that Matthews is overpriced at -350 and has a history of late-round submissions. He mentions Harris' striking is decent and he has a knack for submissions. Paul is not confident enough to bet pre-flop but sees live betting value. He also notes that Matthews' wins are against low-level opponents.
The Guru picks Matthews to win more often than not. He notes Matthews is a solid boxer with good movement and accuracy, plus decent grappling and ground and pound. Harris has power and an anaconda choke threat but has been less active lately. He thinks if Harris wins, it's via anaconda choke.
The Guru picks Jake Matthews over Carlston Harris, citing Matthews' youth, athleticism, and technical striking. He believes Matthews' footwork and accuracy will pick apart Harris, who is hittable and fading. He notes Harris' back-to-back KO losses and Matthews' bounce-back potential.
Angelo picks Jake Matthews to win and finish, noting that his original opponent Muslim Salikhov was replaced by Carlston Harris. He believes Harris is past his prime, less durable, and stepping up on short notice, while Matthews is well-rounded and should find a finish.
Lucrative James picks Jake Matthews, citing his youth (31 vs 38), better boxing, head movement, and overall skill set compared to Carlston Harris. He notes Matthews' unfortunate last loss due to a referee error but believes he is the better fighter everywhere. He highlights Harris's poor durability, cardio, and recent knockout losses, and expects Matthews to land clean shots and get a knockout. He also mentions Matthews' improved chin and comfort in the UFC.
The MMA Guru picks Jake Matthews to win by knockout. He notes that Muslim Salikhov is a one-dimensional grappler at 39 years old with poor striking, while Matthews is a good offensive boxer and grappler. He believes Matthews will keep the fight on the feet and land a knockout.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 18 of 44 | 40% | 28 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 1 | 4:43 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 73 of 103 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 2:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:22 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 24 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 22 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 27 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 18 of 44 | 40% | 11 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 3 |
| Neil Magny | 31 of 57 | 54% | 28 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 29 of 52 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Neil Magny | 18 of 32 | 56% | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Neil Magny | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jake Matthews | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Neil Magny | 6 of 11 | 54% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matthews (-475); Magny (+350)
Round 1
Two of the most experienced welterweights in the company wage battle as the main card rolls on, with betting lines a lot wider than most would expect. A substantial favorite of -400 or above, the younger Matthews (22-7, 15-7 UFC) is on his first three-fight win streak in five years. On the other side of the coin, the 38-year-old Magny (30-13, 23-12 UFC) has dropped two of three, all knockouts. The respectful gentlemen will not likely need any refs to keep things clean, but they nevertheless will be joined by referee Jim Perdios. A cordial fist bump is exchanged.
The two swat at one another early with single distant strikes, and Matthews have wider arcs on them but are less accurate. Magny bounces off the cage wall to let go with a low kick, and he is knocked back from a right hand. Magny recovers and flicks out his jab, and he takes a strong calf kick that gives him pause. Magny’s jab bounces off the forehead, and he pushes off the face and his finger grazes the eye. Perdios tells them to be careful, and they carry on.
Matthews chips at the front leg, and Magny spurs into action with a long flurry of punches that largely miss the mark. “The Haitian Sensation” goes after a takedown, and Matthews stops it in its tracks and backs Magny off with a clubbing right hand. Matthews digs a left to the liver and two rights to the head, and he lets Magny unload on him so he can counter back. Magny stays behind his jab, and when Matthews closes in, Magny ties him up. Matthews gets free, and Magny shoots in deep for a double. Matthews tries to defend with a guillotine on the way down, and Magny fights the hand to alleviate the pressure. Magny cannot fight off the choke, and Matthews rolls him over to full mount with one arm holding tight. Matthews squeezes with all his weight, and Magny relaxes and his right arm starts to fall to the side. Perdios waves the fight off right at the bell for a technical submission while saying, “he’s out,” and Magny immediately shouts “No” several times as he stands back up to declare that he is not out. Despite that Perdios called off the fight, he goes back on his decision and says that the fight is still on and that the round is over. This is extremely confusing, as Perdios came into contact with the fighters a moment before the horn sounded, so by definition it should go down as a tech sub or possibly a no contest due to a premature stoppage. Magny catches a serious break here, and he goes back to his corner mad as can be.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Round 2
We have reached Round 2 despite the stoppage-non-stoppage. Magny appears fine again, and Matthews lays into him with early offense. The punches and elbows from Matthews lead to a takedown from him, and he drags the grizzled veteran to the floor. From there, Matthews starts to impose his grappling game, comfortably shifting from position to position. “The Celtic Kid” relocates himself into a mounted triangle, with Perdios watching on closely. Magny hangs on tight, not giving up even in a bad, bad way. Magny manages to break out of the sub, but he still finds himself on his back absorbing strikes when not dealing with a submission attempt, setup or trap. Matthews softens up the midsection and moves to half guard, and he hunts for an arm-triangle choke at the same time. The dueling actions allow Magny to get out of the choke and wrap up his opponent. Matthews rides out the remainder of the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Round 3
The elder statesman presses the action to start the final round, and he strikes his way into a trip attempt. Matthews remains upright without issue, and he pushes Magny back to reset. Magny tackles his man to the canvas, and Matthews clings to a guillotine choke like before. With the choke in, Matthews uses his feet to walk across the cage wall and flip himself over, but Magny frees himself before getting mounted. Both stand up, and Magny knees the Aussie in the body a few times. Magny presses Matthews down to knee him in the face in the clinch, and he does work with body shots. Matthews busts out of the clinch and retreats, and Magny chases after him and hurts him with a combination of punches. Magny strikes his way into securing a takedown, and he steps into full mount. Matthews scrambles and turns over to get Magny off of him, and he counters with a single as Magny stands up. Magny lifts Matthews up during a takedown and was going to perform a pro wrestling move but spiking is illegal so he thinks twice.
Using his long arms, Magny laces them beneath Matthews’ armpits and under the throat with a surprise brabo choke. Matthews does not panic, even though he has taken some shots and may be fading. As Magny exerts heavy chest pressure with the choke tight as a drum, Matthews has no way out. Before long, he taps out, and Magny has staged the incredible comeback that would only be shocking if it was not Neil “Expletive Deleted” Magny.
Think back to Magny vs. Hector Lombard, or when he snared Daniel Rodriguez in a choke. For the latter, that was the last time Magny landed a submission—and it was a brabo choke then, too. The victor walks back to his corner grinning from ear to ear, even as the crowd does not like it. The story on this match may not be done here, depending on if there is an official review or appeal of the actions in the first round. For the time being, Magny has done it again, pulling off a third-round victory after taking a beating. Matthews is the first fighter repping Oceania tonight to come up short, with their record currently 7-1 with three more to go tonight.
The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Jake Matthews R3 3:08 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
Angelo picks Jake Matthews, the biggest favorite on the card, citing his well-rounded skills and high level of competition. He believes Matthews will avoid Magny's clinch game and use takedowns and busy hands to win. He notes that Magny struggles against younger, faster fighters and that Matthews is not stupid enough to engage in a clinch battle.
Big Brady picks Jake Matthews to win by second-round submission. He believes Matthews has finally put it together and is well-rounded with good boxing, wrestling, and BJJ. He thinks Magny is on the decline and has been submitted in six of his UFC losses.
Cody picks Matthews, noting he has finally become consistent and is putting his skills together. He believes Matthews is a better striker than Magny now and can defend takedowns, forcing a striking match where Matthews should outland Magny. He also cites the hometown advantage and Magny's recent struggles against leg kicks and younger fighters.
Connor also picks Matthews, agreeing that Magny's jab-dependent pressure game has faded. He notes that Magny's recent wins have come against opponents who fell apart, and that Matthews's improved combination punching and wrestling could exploit Magny's vulnerabilities. Connor is cautious because Matthews has a history of reverting to a bad back-foot boxing style, but he thinks Matthews's recent performances show he has moved past that.
James picks Jake Matthews confidently, stating he is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, and power. He notes Matthews is in his prime at 31 and on the best run of his career, while Magny is an aging veteran with a poor ground game. He expects Matthews to take Magny down at will and possibly finish, but predicts a clear decision (30-27 or 29-28) as most likely.
James confidently picks Jake Matthews, noting he is the biggest favorite on the card. He predicts a finish, possibly by arm triangle, as Magny is older and has been finished recently. He believes Matthews is in his prime and should win easily.
The host expects Matthews to take a grapple-heavy approach like his last fight. He acknowledges Magny could have an advantage if the fight goes into deeper water, but thinks Matthews will do enough in the first 10-12 minutes to win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Jake Matthews, believing his well-rounded game and experience against long fighters like Neil Magny will pay off. He notes Matthews' recent submission win and thinks he can replicate that success. He predicts a TKO via low kicks and follow-up shots, calling it a coming-out party.
Zane picks Matthews, citing his recent improvements in combination punching and assertiveness. He notes that Magny looks vulnerable on the feet now and has lost his ability to put pressure with his jab. Zane thinks Matthews's wrestling and willingness to mix it up could be key, as Magny has historically struggled against wrestlers. He acknowledges that Matthews's past struggles are a concern, but believes the current version of Matthews is better.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Chidi Njokuani | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Chidi Njokuani | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chidi Njokuani | 5 of 10 | 50% | 0 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chidi Njokuani | 5 of 10 | 50% | 0 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Njokuani (-150); Matthews (+125)
Round 1
Don’t look now, but Matthews (21-7, 14-7 UFC) is about to turn 31 and enter into his 22nd UFC appearance. His assignment tonight is the brick-fisted ex-middleweight Njokuani (25-10, 1 NC; 5-3 UFC), who had issues making weight but still hit 170.5 after coming back within the extra hour allotment. Knowing this one could last five minutes or five seconds, referee Jimmy Neely is prepped and ready for what’s to come. The fighters touch gloves.
Njokuani instantly capitalizes on his considerable reach advantage by letting fly a number of vicious kicks off the guard of his opponent. One or two get through, and Matthews proves he has a chin on him early. Njokuani fights Matthews back, and Matthews trips him to the mat and takes his back while Njokuani is on his knees.
Matthews starts looking for a short choke from behind, and Njokuani stands up and leans against the cage to take some of the weight off of him. “The Celtic Kid” clings to and changes his grip, keeping his forearm beneath the chin, and his rear-naked choke is tight as a tiger. Njokuani nearly shakes Matthews off of his back, but with Matthews clinging on the side choking the life out of him, “Chidi Chidi Bang Bang” is forced to surrender.
Matthews lets go and apologizes to Njokuani for finishing him, and calmly walks away to chat with announcer Bruce Buffer.
The Official Result
Jake Matthews def. Chidi Njokuani R1 1:09 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo likes Jake Matthews as an underdog, noting his durability, good chin, and ability to wrestle. He thinks Chidi Njokuani cuts too much weight, may have a fading chin, and can be taken down if you get to his legs. He emphasizes that if Matthews chooses to wrestle, he can win, but his fight IQ is questionable. He also suggests a 'win inside distance' prop as a possible bet.
Big Brady is torn on this fight. He notes Chidi Njokuani is dangerous when things go his way but quits under adversity, especially if taken down. Jake Matthews has a clear path via wrestling, but is hit or miss. If Matthews wrestles, he can finish Chidi. Brady picks Matthews by second-round submission but says he may not bet on it and wants to see weigh-ins.
The host expects Njokuani to continue his winning streak since moving to welterweight. He believes Njokuani will stuff Matthews' takedowns and use his Muay Thai advantage to batter Matthews on the feet, winning a decision. Matthews is on a winning streak but Njokuani is streaking as well.
The MMA Guru picks Chidi Njokuani, arguing that Jake Matthews is too reliant on his hands and lacks finishing potential compared to Njokuani's rangy striking with kicks and knees. He notes Matthews' inconsistency and tendency to get caught by strikers, citing his fight with Matthew Semelsberger where he was knocked down every round. He expects Njokuani to keep Matthews at range with teeps and low kicks, then catch him in the clinch for a second-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 68 of 184 | 36% | 95 of 215 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 59 of 146 | 40% | 64 of 152 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 20 of 58 | 34% | 23 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 22 of 57 | 38% | 22 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 22 of 57 | 38% | 39 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 18 of 41 | 43% | 21 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 3 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 26 of 69 | 37% | 33 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 19 of 48 | 39% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 68 of 184 | 36% | 39 of 146 | 24 of 33 | 5 of 5 | 56 of 169 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 59 of 146 | 40% | 17 of 92 | 19 of 28 | 23 of 26 | 47 of 132 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 20 of 58 | 34% | 17 of 51 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 22 of 57 | 38% | 5 of 34 | 9 of 12 | 8 of 11 | 18 of 52 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 22 of 57 | 38% | 11 of 43 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 53 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 18 of 41 | 43% | 5 of 25 | 4 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 13 of 35 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jake Matthews | 26 of 69 | 37% | 11 of 52 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 62 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Francisco Prado | 19 of 48 | 39% | 7 of 33 | 6 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matthews (-225), Prado (+185)
Round 1
It may be shocking to some that Matthews (20-7, 13-7 UFC) is 30 years of age, but he will be entering into his 21st UFC outing as the main card opens up. “The Celtic Kid” will have to tangle with Argentinian gunslinger Prado (12-2, 1-2 UFC), who has 12 career wins with six by submission and the other six via knockout. The welterweights will be overseen by referee Mike Beltran, who plans on keeping things on the up-and-up following the glove touch. Matthews jabs his way forward, skirting away from a low kick early. Matthews follows a jab with a right hand, and he dips to dodge a looping hook. Matthews steps in to mark up Prado with a sharp right hand, and Prado kicks and flips himself over to get back to his feet. Both men meet in the middle and throw massive leather, and Prado gets stunned momentarily but is ready and willing to keep brawling if the mood fits them. Matthews peels back, instead measuring with long, straight punches. Prado lunges at him and tries to spin with a back fist, but the strike goes wide. Prado gets in a low kick but rips the body with a right hand, and the two clash into a clinch that allows Matthews to bust Prado in the chops with uppercuts. Matthews pushes off and takes a body shot on the way out. Matthews strikes first and last in a combination, and he lets Prado escape out the side so he can time a body kick. They proceed to pop one another with simultaneous hooks, and Prado keeps sitting down on sheer power. The leg kicks are effective for the Argentinian, who escapes danger by a matter of millimeters as the two swing bad intentions at one another’s skull. Matthews finds his target with a piercing right hand again and again, damaging Prado’s face but not drawing blood. Prado rushes forward to get hold of a body lock, and he lowers the Aussie to his back with a falling slam. Matthews absorbs an elbow to prompt him to stand up quickly, and he engages in a short but fierce slugfest where he does cut open Prado’s right eyebrow. As the punches continue to come from Matthews, he chases his foe down until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Round 2
The fighters clap hands to get going, and it is Matthews who cuts the cage off right off the bat. Prado is lured into a high-amplitude swing fest, with Matthews the faster, more accurate of the two. Prado uses a standing elbow to frame off, only for Matthews to pounce and split a cut open on the bridge of the nose. Prado keeps Matthews honest with his haymakers, but Matthews is defter and able to keep Prado on his back foot. Prado’s left hook still gets in, and his takedown shot is shoved aside. Prado drives a knee on the jaw, and he gets driven back by a fierce left hand. Prado slings a hard leg kick, but it is one-and-done as Matthews has him backing away. Prado rips a left to the liver and fakes a spin so he can shoot for a takedown, but Matthews is wise to it and punches him in the face in response. Matthews intercepts Prado coming in with an uppercut, and he has his takedown defense ready to shut down an entry. Prado succeeds in planting Matthews back against the fence, grinding on the veteran and working on him with knees and short shots. Matthews wraps up a possible submission setup, and he pushes Prado away to his preferred range. Matthews snaps the head back with a litany of uppercuts, and he parries a front kick when backing away. Matthews’ hands are sharp and active, putting several together every time Prado hurls one big one. Another exchange leads to a cut on the top of Prado’s hairline on the left side, and blood streams immediately into his eye. The horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Round 3
There is a clap of hands to open the final frame, and Matthews fights behind a jab to get inside. This leads to huge punches from both sides, and Matthews’ land first and cleaner. Prado goes to the body with a kick as he backs away, and he loops a right hand that Matthews is able to dodge. Matthews’ volume punching is forcing Prado to fight conservatively, and it allows Matthews to pick up on the timing when Prado loads up at him. Matthews strings two or three together as Prado snaps one punch off, and he slaps Prado in the face with the instep of his foot. The Argentinian shoots for a takedown in the open cage, and his effort is tossed aside without much wasted movement. Matthews sits down on two heavy left hands, blasting Prado in the jaw and stunning him two times in a row. Prado closes in to clinch and get his head back, only to lean too far down to absorb a knee on the chin. Matthews gets a little space and starts rattling off short combinations, while Prado is relegated to single power swings. Matthews dips and pops Prado with two right hands after evading a massive blow, and he lets Prado overswing so he can further touch him. Matthews leans far enough down to avoid two punches, and he opens up with a right hand that snaps the head back before clinching Prado. Prado backs away out of it and shoots for a takedown, and the two clash heads. Matthews grinds on his man against the fencing as seconds tick off the clock, hanging on with knees to the body and thigh until the match concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (30-27 Matthews)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (30-27 Matthews)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (30-27 Matthews)
The Official Result
Jake Matthews def. Francisco Prado via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Big Brady picks Jake Matthews, citing his technical striking advantage and superior grappling. He notes that Prado is moving up a weight class and will be undersized. He also mentions the hometown advantage for Matthews in Australia. However, he acknowledges Matthews' inconsistency. Brady predicts a competitive decision win for Matthews.
Connor also picks Matthews, agreeing with Zane's analysis. He notes that Prado is a brawler who will walk into Matthews' shots. He adds that Matthews' back-foot boxing should work well. However, he hopes Prado can make it interesting by just swarming, but expects Matthews to win.
Matthews impressed with his ability to take opponents down in his last fight. He will mix striking and grappling to keep Prado on the defensive. The pick is for Matthews to win by decision.
Zane picks Matthews, noting that Prado has no range game and poor defense. Matthews can potshot from the back foot and avoid Prado's hooks. He thinks Matthews' speed and technical boxing will be too much. However, he dislikes the booking because Matthews is a gatekeeper who should be fighting prospects, not getting favorable matchups.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 34 of 104 | 32% | 40 of 111 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:50 |
| Philip Rowe | 0 | 66 of 164 | 40% | 89 of 188 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 3:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 18 of 46 | 39% | 18 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Philip Rowe | 0 | 30 of 73 | 41% | 35 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 14 of 52 | 26% | 14 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Philip Rowe | 0 | 34 of 84 | 40% | 34 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:50 |
| Philip Rowe | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 20 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 34 of 104 | 32% | 27 of 92 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 32 of 102 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Philip Rowe | 66 of 164 | 40% | 36 of 125 | 18 of 27 | 12 of 12 | 60 of 155 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 18 of 46 | 39% | 14 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 16 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Philip Rowe | 30 of 73 | 41% | 17 of 56 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 68 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 14 of 52 | 26% | 11 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Philip Rowe | 34 of 84 | 40% | 18 of 64 | 11 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 33 of 81 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jake Matthews | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Philip Rowe | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matthews (-162), Rowe (+136)
Round 1
Keeping on with welterweight action, hyper-aggressive New Yorker Rowe (10-4, 3-2 UFC) will try to win one for local fans as he takes on Australia’s Matthews (19-7, 12-7 UFC). In all 10 of Rowe’s pro victories, he has prevailed by stoppage. His foe Matthews is no stranger to finishes, with all of his wins dating back to 2022 coming inside the distance. The fighters will collide under the supervision of referee Vitor “Shaolin” Ribeiro, and they do not touch gloves when he says it’s time to fight. Rowe shifts immediately to the middle of the Octagon, and he measures out his range with a low kick to either side of Matthews’ lead leg. Matthews jabs out, aiming one to the body as he finds his distance, and he evades a sweeping kick so he can give one back. Rowe sets up a high kick as Matthews, and commentator Daniel Cormier gushes on Rowe’s basketball prowess. As Cormier is talking about a pickup basketball game, Rowe absorbs a few low kicks, and Matthews then punches his way inside and even threatens with a trip. Matthews keeps jabbing the body, and Rowe stands firm and plants two heavy right hands on the temple. Matthews backs him off with body shots, and Rowe poses and flexes like Super Macho Man. Matthews takes a punch combo and digs a left to the body and right up top, and Rowe acknowledges the land with a nod. Rowe connects with a crisp right hand, smashing up Matthews’ nose, but Matthews is ready to bang and he throws back recklessly. Rowe wades in, and the two welterweights swing for the bleachers. A thudding right hand from Matthews finds its home on Rowe’s cheek, and swelling immediately develops. Rowe has a front kick split the guard, and he parries an overhand right. Matthews tries to come out firing with three punches, and when Rowe blocks it, the New Yorker dances. Rowe intensely strides forward, sticking out a sharp jab and keeping his guard tight. Rowe jumps forward with a knee, and Matthews lowers his left hand down and smacks the top of Rowe’s cup in an awkward situation. Rowe drops to his knees, and Ribeiro calls time. “The Fresh Prince” freshens himself up after a minute to recover, and they get going with a vengeance. Matthews races at him throwing hands, and Rowe retaliates and drives several knees to the dome. Rowe wings a head kick and falls to his back, and Matthews leaps after him and holds him down until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rowe
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rowe
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Round 2
Despite taking some facial damage in the last round, Matthews appears the more confident of the two, and he surges forward to attack. Matthews swings a left and a right, and he jumps forward to plant an uppercut on the chin. Rowe keeps his guard up to defend the follow-up blows, only for Matthews to wrap three punches around his shell to ring his bell. Rowe wobbles back, knees weak, arms heavy, but there is nothing on his sweater already. Rowe chambers and fires a right hand, getting Matthews’ attention, but Matthews quickly gathers himself and stings him with a short right from up close. Rowe pushes out a jab to calm things down and reassume his range, and Matthews pushes through it to aim two punches to the body and a right over the top that does not get through. Rowe gets off a leg kick, and he blocks a check left hook. When Rowe crashes the pocket, his guard is able to protect him from the swarming punches aimed at his head. Rowe lands another solid low kick, and he slides back to let an overhand right glance off his shoulder. Rowe intercepts a punch combination with a knee up the middle, and Matthews jabs the body in response. Matthews tries and fails to let loose with three hooks, only for Rowe to guard each one. Rowe checks a kick, and he gets driven back by a double jab. Matthews throws out another double jab to follow a right up top, and he does a similar combination that is met with a mighty Rowe right hook. Rowe connects with a clean right hand, and Matthews slings a right hook back that bounces off the dome. One last left from Matthews ends the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Round 3
The fighters bump fists before engaging, and engage they do immediately. Rowe springs into action, throwing power shots, and Matthews replies in kind. Rowe tries to push forward and take the Aussie down, and Matthews reverses him and plants him on his back. Rowe does not quit moving, sweeping “The Celtic Kid” and put himself in half guard. Rowe clings from on top, preferring to maintain position rather than open himself up with strikes. Matthews sits up and pulls Rowe back into his full guard, and he turns his back and gives it up to escape. Rowe slides off the back, and Matthews shifts on top with Rowe on his side. Matthews tries to break up the leglock around his own leg so he can pass, and the scramble results in an odd pretzel situation as Rowe uses his arm to turn Matthews over. Matthews reasserts his position while Rowe stays turned on his side, and he slithers his leg out so he can shift to three-quarter mount. Matthews pursues an arm-triangle choke, and Rowe turns the proper direction to break it up but remains stuck on his back. Matthews lines up a one-arm guillotine choke, using the grip perhaps for position rather than submission. Rowe explodes in an effort to get up, but Matthews thwarts him one last time before the fight concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (29-28 Matthews)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (29-28 Matthews)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (29-28 Matthews)
The Official Result
Jake Matthews def. Philip Rowe via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Philip Rowe despite his poor fight IQ in the last fight where he grappled Neil Magny unnecessarily. He believes Rowe is the better striker and should win if he sticks to striking and uses his range. He trusts that the loss was a wake-up call, but is not highly confident due to Rowe's decision-making.
Big Brady is not a huge fan of Philip Rowe but acknowledges he is a popular dog with a 100% finish rate. He notes Jake Matthews is inconsistent and has dropped the ball as a favorite. He thinks Rowe is live to win and keep his finish rate intact, being much bigger.
Cody picks Rowe, echoing Paul's sentiment. He details Matthews' flaws: poor striking, questionable chin, and tendency to lose as a favorite. Cody notes Rowe's 80-inch reach, volume, and durability. He believes Matthews will struggle to take Rowe down and will get outpointed on the feet. Cody mentions Rowe's wins over Orion Cosce and Jason Witt, and his KO of Nico Price.
Daniel calls Matthews 'Flake Matthews' due to mental lapses. He likes Rowe's physical tools, reach, and power, and expects him to establish his jab and land a big right hand. He sees a submission or KO possibility and plans to bet two units.
The host leans on Rowe's striking advantage, citing his height, reach, and improved range management. Matthews has not been using his wrestling lately, which is his path to victory. If Matthews stays on the feet, Rowe should pick him apart and possibly get a knockout. The host calls this the toughest fight to call but sides with Rowe's technical striking.
Paul picks Rowe, citing Matthews' history of losing as a favorite. He notes Matthews has lost five of his seven UFC losses as the betting favorite. Paul likes Rowe's reach advantage (80-inch reach), jab, and durability. He believes Matthews' grappling won't be as effective against Rowe's length, and Rowe can win by decision or late KO. He mentions Rowe's close fight with Neil Magny.
The MMA Guru picks Philip Rowe as his underdog of the card. He believes Jake Matthews struggles against taller, rangier opponents and that Matthews' best work is at close range. Rowe is a good grappler and has better range striking. He notes that Matthews' wins are not impressive and that Rowe has shown more. He predicts Rowe may win by clinch knees and body shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Morales | 0 | 84 of 208 | 40% | 84 of 208 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 57 of 149 | 38% | 57 of 149 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Morales | 0 | 26 of 73 | 35% | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 14 of 40 | 35% | 14 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Morales | 0 | 36 of 77 | 46% | 36 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 18 of 46 | 39% | 18 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Michael Morales | 0 | 22 of 58 | 37% | 22 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 25 of 63 | 39% | 25 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Morales | 84 of 208 | 40% | 45 of 157 | 12 of 17 | 27 of 34 | 80 of 197 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Matthews | 57 of 149 | 38% | 33 of 109 | 17 of 24 | 7 of 16 | 54 of 146 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Morales | 26 of 73 | 35% | 12 of 54 | 3 of 5 | 11 of 14 | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Matthews | 14 of 40 | 35% | 7 of 26 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 13 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Morales | 36 of 77 | 46% | 20 of 58 | 7 of 10 | 9 of 9 | 32 of 68 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Matthews | 18 of 46 | 39% | 13 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 6 | 18 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Morales | 22 of 58 | 37% | 13 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 22 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Matthews | 25 of 63 | 39% | 13 of 46 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 7 | 23 of 61 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-270), Matthews (+230)
Round 1
The winner of this co-main event may earn a place in the top 15 at welterweight. It could be undefeated 23-year-old wunderkind Morales (15-0, 3-0 UFC), or former wunderkind-turned-veteran Matthews (19-6, 12-6 UFC). Referee Herb Dean will know which one it is first, and he is confident this will be all above board. The 170ers calmly slap fists, and Morales snaps out a jab. Matthews does the same, as they use it as a rangefinder. Morales scores an inside leg kick that lands with a thump, and he just misses with a left hook. Morales bounces off the fence with a Superman punch that Matthews bats away, and Matthews backs him off with a right hand. Morales rebounds with a right of his own, and he slips in a jab to break up a combination that buzzes his hair. Matthews digs to the body as he eats a leg kick, and Morales’ jab has already reddened Matthews’ face up a bit. Matthews overswings and stumbles, and Morales lets him up so that he can stick the jab in his face. Morales connects with a slapping kick, and Matthews unloads with an overhand left that surprises his foe. Morales fires back with a right hand down the pipe, and Matthews staggers but does not fall down. The two reset and start trading calf kicks one after the other, and Matthews breaks the chain with a swatting left to the body. Morales sits down on a leg kick, and Matthews jabs him of his feet. Morales climbs back up and is quick to engage with a one-two, and he kicks out Matthews’ leg to drop Matthews to a knee. Matthews returns to his feet and blocks a trio of punched aimed at his mug. Morales plants a one-two on the jaw, and he looks to follow it with a flying knee but is caught in midair and hurled down to the mat. Morales springs back up as Matthews raises his eyebrows, and Matthews swings a right hand and gets jabbed back. Morales peppers the lead leg and comes up short with a jumping switch kick, and again Matthews raises his eyebrows. The Aussie surges forward with a left and a right, and Morales tanks them right on the chin and shrugs them off. Morales leaps at him with a flying knee, and he lands to attempt a takedown. Morales attempts one more Superman punch off the cage, and the tense round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Round 2
The welterweights bump their fists together before trading them. They feint leg kicks, and Morales jumps forward with a right hand. When Matthews attempts to respond, Morales digs his shin in the calf. Morales whiffs on a counter when Matthews pops him, and jumps forward with a stomp kick to the knee. Morales gets his jab going again, disrupting the overhand right from “The Celtic Kid,” and he stings Matthews with a long and powerful series of uppercuts. Matthews shakes his head when he escapes, and he chips at Morales’ calf and wings a right hand that comes up short. Matthews has a one-two bounce off gloves, and Morales answers him with a thudding kick to the calf that is showing some damage. Matthews paws out his own jab, and they both throw hands and catch the other. Morales shakes his arms out, and he turns to dodge the worst of a one-two coming at his face. Morales gets off a few inside kicks, and he jabs as Matthews kicks him back. Morales ducks a looping right hand and hops away from darting offense so he can counter with sharp strikes. Morales slips and rips with a right hand, and he does eat a right hand on the way out after landing a few strikes of his own. Morales peppers out the jab and eats a right hand for his effort, and he answers a few strikes with a Superman punch. Matthews digs to the body, and Morales rifles back a quick and dangerous right hand that snaps the head back. Matthews keeps a stiff upper lip as he eats a few jabs on the nose, and he swats out a left hook and keeps his guard up as Morales springs into action. Morales jump with a knee, a body kick, and he releases a long series of punches and a high kick at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Round 3
There is a final tap of the gloves to start off the last round, and Matthews strikes first with a kick from either leg. Morales shuts down a punch by working the lead leg, and Matthews beats him to the punch with a few additional strikes. Matthews fires off a one-two, and a leg kick that follows slams right into the 23-year-old’s cup. Morales groans as Dean calls time, and it does not take long before Morales signals he is ready to go. Just 30 seconds elapse before the fight resumes, and Matthews wants to take advantage of the discomfort by crowding his adversary with looping punches. Morales strafes away and counters, and he settles down and prods out a jab. Morales shakes his hands out and starts doing the Ali Shuffle, and he leaps into action with a knee that flies past the Australian. Matthews lunges with two punches, and Morales slides just to the side and counters with a right hand. Morales drives a kick to the calf, and Matthews stumbles. He kicks the same spot, and Matthews catches his leg and tries to take Morales down. Morales recovers his balance and swats away a jumping front kick. Matthews attempts a one-two, and Morales parries him with ease. When Matthews jabs the body, Morales kicks him on the inside of the leg. The unbeaten fighter continues working the leg on both sides, and he stays out of range from the power punches hurled back his direction. Morales lands a right hand after evading Matthews’, and Morales throws two punches and a body kick that strikes the peninsula south of the equator. Matthews groans from the foul, and Dean pauses the fight for a few seconds before Matthews waves them back on. Matthews charges with a pair of punches, and Morales steps to the side and releases two kicks with the same leg in rapid succession. Morales drives a shovel uppercut that brushes the beard, and Matthews goes after him and puts hands on his opponent. Morales throws back, keeping composed and still barely breaking a sweat after nearly 15 minutes of activity. Matthews tries to corner him and lay into him, and Morales pushes him away and snipes him with an uppercut. With 15 seconds to go, the Ecuadorian attempts a takedown, and Matthews shuts it down and lets his hands go. They brawl it out to end the fight, with a jump knee by Morales mixed in during the final slugfest. They hear the final bell, and hug it out.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales (30-27 Morales)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales (30-27 Morales)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales (30-27 Morales)
The Official Result
Michael Morales def. Jake Matthews via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is very confident in Michael Morales, calling him an incredible prospect with wrestling and Muay Thai credentials. He notes Morales has cardio and finishes fights. He thinks -255 feels like a discount and that Morales can be parlayed. He expects Morales to dominate.
Big Brady thinks Matthews' wins are against low-level competition and that Morales has a massive reach advantage (7 inches), higher volume, and power. He notes Matthews gets knocked down often, as in the Semelsberger fight. He predicts Morales wins by decision, citing the reach, volume, and strength as key differences.
Cody picks Michael Morales confidently, citing his youth, physical strength, and 92% takedown defense. He notes that Jake Matthews struggles against decent competition, has low striking volume, and poor durability. Morales has a 6-inch reach advantage and can win by knockout or decision. Cody expects Morales to out-strike Matthews and stuff takedowns, leading to a win.
Morales is a physical specimen with power and takedown defense. Matthews is inconsistent and may struggle to take Morales down, forcing him to strike where Morales has the advantage. Morales is faster and stronger, and will likely land a knockout in the first or second round.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Morales' reach advantage and ability to keep the fight at range. He mentions Morales' judo background and confidence on the ground. Paul thinks the line is a bit wide but expects Morales to show improvements and win.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales over Jake Matthews, predicting a decision win with Matthews getting knocked down in key moments. He criticizes Matthews as a boxer with a double leg who doesn't surprise opponents. He notes Morales' reach, power, and dynamism as the difference, and compares Matthews' performance to a Matt Semelsberger-like showing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 60 of 101 | 59% | 71 of 113 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:15 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 36 of 64 | 56% | 41 of 69 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 37 of 63 | 58% | 42 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 30 of 56 | 53% | 35 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 23 of 38 | 60% | 29 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:15 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 60 of 101 | 59% | 40 of 78 | 14 of 17 | 6 of 6 | 47 of 84 | 2 of 5 | 11 of 12 |
| Darrius Flowers | 36 of 64 | 56% | 21 of 48 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 10 | 31 of 57 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 37 of 63 | 58% | 21 of 47 | 11 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 35 of 58 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Darrius Flowers | 30 of 56 | 53% | 17 of 42 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 9 | 25 of 49 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 23 of 38 | 60% | 19 of 31 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 12 |
| Darrius Flowers | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matthews (-260), Flowers (+220)
Round 1
Sticking around a little longer in the welterweight division, at 29, the “The Celtic Kid” Matthews (18-6, 11-6 UFC) may not quite be a kid any longer. With visions of bouncing back into the win column again, he welcomes Flowers (12-5-1, 0-0 UFC) to the world-famous Octagon. The third man inside of that cage with them will be referee Tyler Tomlinson, and he stands back as the two combatants touch ‘em up. Flowers takes to the center of the cage immediately, while Matthews strafes around the side. Flowers gets off a stern leg kick, and he hops back to avoid a jab. The Aussie lands a right hand on the temple, and he absorbs a leg kick to launch a high kick that careens off the guard. Flowers rests and takes a hard leg kick, and he avoids a looping right hand by a matter of inches. Matthews checks a kick and gets backed up to the wall, with Flowers pouring it on with volume and intensity. The two throws bombs at one another, and Matthews gets the better of an exchange to knock Flowers back. Flowers reaches him with a right hook, and Matthews slams a left hook to the liver to stun Flowers. After gathering his thoughts, Flowers charges, and Matthews and pushes him out of the way to work the body. They trade leg kicks, and Flowers shrugs at him. Flowers whiffs on a gnarly uppercut, and he again backs Matthews up and unloads on him. Matthews throws back accurately to keep Flowers honest, and he drills an elbow on the back of the ear to make Flowers take back off. Flowers then advances right into a liver shot, and this makes him reevaluate his position. Matthews digs a front kick to the body, and he stabs his toes to the same target with a second kick. Matthews has found his groove with those front kicks, and he mixes things up with a few stomp kicks to the thigh. Flowers plods forward, seemingly slowing down, while Matthews is able to be light on his feet and keep moving to pick at him from range. Matthews rips a left to the body and a right to the head, and Flowers staggers and takes a funny step back. Matthews charges, and Flowers was playing possum, as he swings with a huge right hand to surprise Matthews. The Australian fighter dodges it just enough to not get hurt, and Flowers wags his finger at him. As they trade hands, Flowers changes levels suddenly and secures a double-leg takedown to put Matthews on his back. Matthews defends with a guillotine choke, and he sets it up even as Flowers moves to the side. Matthews sits up, no choke locked up, and the exciting round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Round 2
Matthews offers a glove touch, but Flowers is taking deep breaths and backs off early. Matthews gives chase and reaches him with a high kick, and he steps forward with a front kick that slams in to the liver. Based on Flowers’ reaction, it collided with his groin, as he falls to his knees and drops to his face. Tomlinson calls the foul and allows Flowers to recover, and the replay shows that the strike appeared legal although the heel subsequently may have bounced into the cup. The crowd is incensed, as they believe this should be a TKO victory for Matthews. Tomlinson is not affected by the crowd and continues to allow Flowers to recover. Tomlinson calls in the doctor, and Flowers is still leaned over on his knees in pain. When three minutes pass, Flowers is cleared to compete and the fight resumes. Matthews kicks the same spot beneath the ribs when they get back to it, and Flowers lets his hands go to back the Aussie up. Matthews digs a few more kicks to the body, and he rings Flowers’ bell with an overhand right. Flowers advances, dipping his head back and forth, and he dodges the worst of the strikes. Flowers catches a front kick and tries to lift the leg up and dump Matthews to the mat, but he lets it go to allow them to keep trading. Matthews lands a right hand, stuffs a takedown and bowls Flowers over. Matthews lands in half guard, and he quickly isolates Flowers’ left arm to set up a two-on-one wrist lock. “The Celtic Kid” uses the kimura to advance to full mount, and he postures up to hammer Flowers with ground-and-pound. Flowers’ mouthpiece pops out, and Tomlinson allows him to reset it. Matthews works Flowers over with ground-and-pound, forcing Flowers to turn to his stomach.
The 29-year-old flattens Flowers out, and he sets up the rear-naked choke in a hurry. Flowers knows he has been thoroughly plucked, as he is wilting and cannot defend himself any longer. The very moment that Matthews completes the rear-naked choke grip, Flowers is already tapping.
It was a valiant UFC debut for Flowers, who had the veteran in trouble a few times, but he ultimately found himself outmatched in the end. Some may joke that Matthews should have earned two victories tonight, one for the front kick and another for the submission, but Matthews got the job done when it mattered most.
The Official Result
Jake Matthews def. Darrius Flowers R2 2:37 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Jake Matthews despite his last embarrassing loss, citing his toughness and ability to weather storms. He expects Flowers to come out hot with power and slams, but thinks Matthews will survive the early onslaught and take over later. He is waiting for the odds to drop and will bet if the line is favorable.
Big Brady picks Jake Matthews to win by second-round submission. He acknowledges Flowers' explosiveness and power but questions his cardio, especially on short notice at elevation. He expects Matthews to weather an early storm, then take over as Flowers tires, securing a submission in the second round. He notes Flowers has been submitted four times before.
Cody picks Flowers as a dog, noting Matthews' inconsistency and poor performances as a favorite, especially outside Australia. He mentions Matthews' chin issues and lack of submission wins. Flowers has power and a willingness to engage. However, he admits he may not have the courage to bet it.
James is leaning toward Flowers due to the wide line, as Matthews is a heavy favorite despite being hittable and having been hurt in his last fight. He acknowledges he hasn't done full tape on Flowers but sees power and takedown upside. He feels the line should be much closer and that Flowers offers value as a dog.
Matthews has way more experience against higher level competition. He should be able to overcome Flowers' power and jiu-jitsu with his own grappling and striking. Matthews needs to be strict with his striking defense and open up takedown opportunities. I'm taking Matthews by decision.
Paul also leans Flowers, echoing Matthews' struggles outside Australia and his shaky chin. He notes Flowers' boxing background and ability to land a big shot. He acknowledges Flowers' grappling deficiencies but believes Matthews may not exploit them. He calls it a decent underdog shot.
André Fialho - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Means | 2 | 104 of 143 | 72% | 134 of 178 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:51 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 51 of 103 | 49% | 56 of 110 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Means | 1 | 39 of 53 | 73% | 44 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 19 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tim Means | 0 | 48 of 69 | 69% | 73 of 99 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:29 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 29 of 50 | 58% | 32 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 | |
| 3 | Tim Means | 1 | 17 of 21 | 80% | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Means | 104 of 143 | 72% | 66 of 103 | 33 of 35 | 5 of 5 | 56 of 87 | 30 of 35 | 18 of 21 |
| André Fialho | 51 of 103 | 49% | 32 of 75 | 15 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 35 of 86 | 16 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Means | 39 of 53 | 73% | 21 of 34 | 16 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 36 | 8 of 10 | 6 of 7 |
| André Fialho | 19 of 47 | 40% | 8 of 31 | 8 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 41 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Means | 48 of 69 | 69% | 33 of 53 | 14 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 39 | 14 of 16 | 12 of 14 |
| André Fialho | 29 of 50 | 58% | 24 of 44 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 39 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Means | 17 of 21 | 80% | 12 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 12 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo thinks Means can ugly up the fight and squeak out a close decision. He notes Means is tough, busy, and has fought a who's who of welterweights. However, he is concerned about Means' age (39) and Fialho's power. He has very low confidence.
Big Brady picks André Fialho to win by first-round knockout, citing his power advantage and youth (10 years younger). He notes both fighters have poor durability, but Fialho hits like a truck. He worries about Fialho's horrible cardio and thinks he must finish early. He says nobody should be confident on either side.
Cody picks Tim Means as a live underdog, citing Fialho's poor chin and hesitancy against strikers. He notes Means's crafty striking, wrestling, and experience. He believes Means can outwork Fialho, who has been knocked out by lesser competition.
Daniel hesitantly picks Fialho based on youth and power, but admits he doesn't trust either fighter. He notes Means is 39 and doesn't react well to shots anymore, while Fialho has three straight KO losses. He thinks Means is the better technical fighter but age and chin are concerns. He expects a violent fight and leans Fialho by KO, but with low confidence.
Lucrative James feels Fialho will knock out Means, citing Means' declining durability and reaction times. He likes Fialho's left hook and calm striking style. He considers betting Fialho inside the distance but notes the line is -135, which he doesn't love. He also mentions Means decision as a possible hedge.
The host picks Fialho to win by first-round knockout, despite normally fading him. He notes Fialho's power advantage and Means' questionable durability and age (39). He expects Fialho to land a barrage early and finish Means. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as a safer play, expecting either an early Fialho KO or a late Means finish.
Paul picks Tim Means simply because he refuses to lay chalk on Fialho. He notes both fighters are quick starters and expects a finish. He has no strong confidence but likes the plus money.
The MMA Guru initially leans toward André Fialho but changes his pick to Tim Means after a lengthy internal debate. He worries about Means' age and declining athleticism but has a 'sneaky feeling' Means will catch Fialho. He notes Fialho's tendency to get knocked out and Means' effective one-two combinations. He predicts a TKO in round one, with Means backing Fialho against the cage and landing a one-two. He admits he is hesitant and almost picked Fialho.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| André Fialho | 1 | 26 of 89 | 29% | 27 of 90 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 10 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| André Fialho | 1 | 16 of 53 | 30% | 17 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 22 of 51 | 43% | 14 of 42 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 26 of 89 | 29% | 12 of 66 | 9 of 18 | 5 of 5 | 26 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 8 of 19 | 42% | 4 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 10 of 36 | 27% | 6 of 29 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 14 of 32 | 43% | 10 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 16 of 53 | 30% | 6 of 37 | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-225), Fialho (+190)
Round 1
A welterweight striker’s delight is about to be on display between the power-punching Fialho (16-6, 1 NC; 2-3 UFC) and furious finisher Buckley (15-6, 5-4 UFC). With 24 knockouts across their 31 pro wins, referee Kerry Hatley will need to bring his A-game to the party. Interested solely in trying to knock the other’s block off shortly, they do not share a glove touch. The offense is relatively muted for the first 30 seconds, until Buckley engages with a swift body kick. Buckley attempts a kick on the other side, and Fialho watches him closely without striking back. “New Mansa” skims the top of the head with his shin, and Fialho shakes it off and keeps his arm high to block it. The kicks keep coming from Buckley, and he darts forward with a looping right hand that Fialho turns his face to barely avoid. Buckley throws two punches and a kick, and he spins with a wheel kick. Buckley charges with another spinning kick, and Fialho finally attempts to counter with a check hook. Buckley runs at his foe, throwing fists, and Fialho sits down on his punches to respond. They trade fierce fists, and Fialho kicks Buckley in the head when Buckley is leaned over. The former middleweight eats it like a steak, and he walks forward to throw two booming hooks. Fialho backs him off with a jab, and he dodges a flying knee and a right hand to score a short left when Buckley lands. Buckley explodes into a takedown attempt, dumping the Portuguese fighter to the mat. Fialho is not on the ground for more than a second before climbing back up. Buckley spins without throwing anything, and he absorbs a loud body kick on the way out. Buckley gets tagged on the way forward, and he runs from one side of the cage to the other to deposit Fialho to the canvas. Once more, Fialho works his way up, and he is thrown to the mat right as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 2
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Fialho loops a left hand around the guard and follows it with a body kick that bumps into the cup. Buckley immediately protests as the fight is paused by Hatley, and he takes about 25 seconds before going again. Fialho starts off again with a head kick, and he reaches his foe with a straight right hand. Buckley shakes it off and is tagged once again, and he rushes out with a barrage of inaccurate punches. The two trade punches, with Buckley ending the exchange with a right over the top. Buckley races in with a flying knee, and he wings a right hand and a left that bangs into the temple. Fialho appears no worse for wear, and Buckley kicks up to the same spot but it is blocked. Buckley, in a blitz, reaches Fialho and makes the Portuguese fighter bounce off the wall. Fialho gathers his bearings and lets off another body kick that hits the cup. Buckley shakes it a few times and they get back to trading. Fialho looks to time an advancing Buckley with a right hook, and Buckley attacks awkwardly without a lot of telegraphing to take advantage of. Fialho walks Buckley down with straight punches, but Buckley backs him away before long with a looping right hand and a spinning kick to the ribs. Buckley dances on the outside and sprints in, and he bangs his head into Fialho’s chin. Fialho takes a few seconds to clear his thoughts, and Buckley is on him.
Releasing a vicious head kick that slams square into the ear, Buckley knocks Fialho clean off his feet and down for the count. Fialho, grinning but barely clutching to his consciousness, succumbs to one follow-up right hand with Buckley lording over him that knocks him senseless. Hatley, who considered stopping the fight from the kick itself but waited an extra second, moves in to shove Buckley off of the downed Fialho when that last fist bashes into Fialho’s skull, with that blow arguably a late hit as Hatley had his hands on Buckley at the time.
There will be a question of whether Fialho should have taken some extra time after the clash of heads, but the head kick sealed the deal and then some. Buckley, in his victorious post-fight interview, maximizes his mic time by calling out the UFC sponsor of Prime and the Paul brother that runs it, telling them to sponsor athletes and not just the promotion itself.
The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Andre Fialho R2 4:15 via TKO (Head Kick)
Angelo picks Buckley to win because he has wrestling if needed, better defense, and is faster and more athletic. However, he is wary of betting at -170 since both fighters have been knocked out recently. He suggests waiting for props, possibly 'does not go the distance' if the line is good.
Big Brady picks André Fialho as the underdog to knock out Joaquin Buckley in the first round. He notes both fighters have power and poor durability, but he likes Fialho's early-round danger. He also mentions Buckley is moving down to welterweight after five years, which could affect his performance. He expects a stand-up war and believes Fialho lands the big shot first.
Cody believes Buckley's power and athleticism will be too much for Fialho, who has questionable durability and cardio. He expects Buckley to knock Fialho out, possibly early. He notes Buckley's move to welterweight is a positive and that Fialho's striking defense is lacking.
Connor also picks Buckley, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights that Fialho's indecision and poor chin are major liabilities, and that Buckley's creative striking will cause problems. He notes that Fialho has moments of being a good fighter but is inconsistent, and that Buckley's ability to mix up his attacks will keep Fialho guessing. He also expresses doubt about Buckley's move to welterweight but thinks Fialho is not the fighter to exploit it.
Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley but notes he missed the better line. He believes Buckley is faster, has better volume, and that 170 lbs is the right weight class for him. He worries about Buckley's tendency to engage in pocket exchanges, where Fialho's power could be dangerous, but thinks if Buckley fights smart on the outside, he can out-volume Fialho. He calls it a 'pure pick' and says he's not interested in betting at -225.
The host picks Joaquin Buckley, expecting a knockout as Fialho fades in later rounds. He notes Buckley's technical boxing and high guard should allow him to crash the pocket and land cleaner punches. He likes the fight doesn't go to decision prop and predicts a round three TKO.
Paul agrees, noting that Buckley's move to welterweight is beneficial and that Fialho's durability is a concern. He mentions that Buckley can be methodical and that the fight could end early. He also likes the under on significant strikes for Buckley.
The MMA Guru sides with Joaquin Buckley, despite praising Fialho's activity. He worries about Fialho's chin and notes he took damage in recent fights without enough time to improve. He believes Buckley is more elusive and has a better chin, and that Fialho lacks one-shot KO power. He expects Buckley to win, possibly by KO, but acknowledges it could go either way if there's a finish.
Zane picks Buckley, noting that despite Buckley's predictable entries and history of getting knocked out, Fialho's inconsistency and poor chin make him vulnerable. He argues that Fialho's confidence breaks easily and he tends to become indecisive, while Buckley's creative combinations and willingness to trade will overwhelm him over time. He also mentions that Fialho has been staggered by relatively innocuous shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 17 of 66 | 25% | 29 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 56 of 95 | 58% | 77 of 123 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 11 of 38 | 28% | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 19 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 | |
| 2 | Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 37 of 57 | 64% | 50 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:48 | |
| 3 | Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muslim Salikhov | 17 of 66 | 25% | 10 of 55 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 14 of 60 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 56 of 95 | 58% | 38 of 70 | 14 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 35 of 60 | 3 of 8 | 18 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muslim Salikhov | 11 of 38 | 28% | 6 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 11 of 22 | 50% | 5 of 12 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 17 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Muslim Salikhov | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 37 of 57 | 64% | 28 of 47 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 17 of 26 | |
| 3 | Muslim Salikhov | 1 of 10 | 10% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 8 of 16 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fialho (-110), Salikhov (-110)
Round 1
Striker faces striker in what has slotted itself in the “featured fight of the night” spot, although their approaches could scarcely be more different even if the end result is the same. The heavy-handed Portugal native Fialho (16-5, 1 NC; 2-2 UFC) will throw down with a spinning specialist nicknamed “King of Kung Fu” in Salikhov (18-3, 5-2 UFC), and referee Chris Tognoni will have his hands full here. The respect is ample with a clap of hands to begin the scheduled melee, and Salikhov strikes first with a calf kick. Fialho responds with two. A front kick from the Dagestan native pushes Fialho back as Fialho delivers a third kick to the lead leg. Fialho gets his balance and leaps forward with a left hook, but it hits the guard of his opponent. Fialho looks to sweep the leg, and Salikhov responds with his own low kick. A left hand from Salikhov splits the guard, and he sits down on a loud low kick to follow. The tense striking match largely consists of single-shot offerings, and Salikhov spins with a wheel kick but misses the mark. Fialho slips a winging right hand and drives Salikhov back with a straight left hand, and he finds the mark with an uppercut shortly thereafter. Salikhov absorbs a right hand and spins with a back kick, and he surprisingly grabs hold of Fialho’s leg and drags him down to the floor. Salikhov wades into the closed guard of his opponent, and Fialho defends with hacking elbows off his back. The fighter from Portugal defends himself from danger as he swats at Salikhov while on his back, and he jumps up and absorbs a spinning back kick right to the midsection. Fialho drives a right hand into the eye socket, and Salikhov blinks it out and swelling develops quickly. Fialho blasts him with an uppercut, with Salikhov grabbing hold of his foe and ramming a few knees to the midsection to slow Fialho down. Fialho settles for a clinch as he gets his back turned to the wall, and he frees himself right as the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fialho
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fialho
Round 2
The gloves are touched to start off the second round, and within seconds, Salikhov bull-rushes forward to get a body lock and attempt a takedown. Fialho turns around and protects against a subsequent single, and this too fails from the Russian. Fialho lands a right hand on the break, but Salikhov replies with a kick to the liver. A left hand wraps around the guard of the Portugal native, and Salikhov gets on his bike and takes potshots of front kicks and reaching punches. Fialho prepares himself to take a flush spinning back kick as he plods forward, with his offense falling off a cliff while Salikhov is still swinging for the fences. Salikhov jabs the body and stays light on his feet, and Fialho returns fire with a jab and a low kick. “King of Kung Fu” spins with a back fist that pounds into the side of the head, and Fialho wobbles and takes a clean spinning wheel kick on the neck as well. Fialho bites down on his mouthpiece and throws hammers, leading to Salikhov clinching him up and pursuing some form of takedown. Fialho takes several punches on the chin as he slowly walks forward, still offensively muted as Salikhov picks and rips with single effective strikes. Salikhov is able to put a front kick on the body and a superman punch on the side of the head, and Fialho’s balance is shot as he swings so hard that he falls down to the ground. The Russian looks to finish the job by raining down a long series of powerful hammerfists, and Tognoni implores Fialho to fight back or show some signs of life. Salikhov slows down and makes sure not to fully gas himself out, and the damage on Fialho's face shows his nose is busted up and leaking crimson fluid on the mat. The ground strikes continue until the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Salikhov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Salikhov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Salikhov
Round 3
The final round begins with an aggressive Fialho, who leaps forward to swing his fists at his opponent. Salikhov hops and springs away from the brunt of the damaging strikes, and he chambers and fires a high kick. Salikhov spins with a perfect spinning back kick to the body, and Fialho falls back against the wall but does not go down. He leans back and allows Salikhov to advance, and he might be playing possum as he suddenly springs to action with huge punches in response.
“King of Kung Fu” showcases his skills to the finest with a magnificent spinning wheel kick that smashes into the side of Fialho’s head, and Fialho clutches his head and is in a bad way. Tognoni thinks about intervening, but allows Salikhov to bludgeon Fialho with a couple more punches before stepping in for the standing TKO.
Fialho immediately protests the stoppage, but his body language before the finish was anything but positive as he was getting destroyed by the flashier striker. For the fifth time in his career, Salikhov has pulled off a finish with a spinning kick, with this one bigger than any he had registered in the past.
The Official Result
Muslim Salikhov def. Andre Fialho R3 1:03 via TKO (Spinning Wheel Kick and Punches)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 19 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| André Fialho | 1 | 47 of 89 | 52% | 47 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 12 of 38 | 31% | 13 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 27 of 53 | 50% | 27 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| André Fialho | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 18 of 51 | 35% | 13 of 44 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 |
| André Fialho | 47 of 89 | 52% | 35 of 75 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 10 | 44 of 86 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 12 of 38 | 31% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 |
| André Fialho | 27 of 53 | 50% | 16 of 41 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 27 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 6 of 13 | 46% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 20 of 36 | 55% | 19 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 17 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Allen (-280), Malkoun (+225)
Round 1
Before losing the Rogerio Bontorin vs. Manel Kape pairing – Bontorin withdrew due to a botched weight cut that hospitalized him with kidney issues – this welterweight fight was slated to take place on the prelims. As such, Fialho (16-4, 1 NC; 2-1 UFC) and Matthews (17-5, 10-5 UFC) will be the benefactors of that unfortunate situation, slotting on the main card right before a rematch of one of the greatest fights of all time. Fialho has somehow quietly strung together two solid knockouts since mid-April, and a third win in 57 days, knockout or not, would smash the record for the quickest accumulation of three victories in the UFC’s modern era. Whether he can do it or get rebuffed, referee Jason Herzog will be the first to know. There is no glove touch, and Fialho begins to stalk Matthews down early on. Matthews stays on the outside with a few low kicks, and Fialho replies with a single jab. Matthews continues to move and work the lead calf with kicks, reddening and welting it up early. Fialho replies with one of his own, and he slips when Matthews throws a straight left hand at him. Matthews reaches Fialho with a swiping right hand, and he scores a few low kicks and wings a head kick over the top that clangs off the top of Fialho’s head. Matthews tries to pre-emptively counter Fialho on the way in, and Fialho is stuck guessing and not able to pull the trigger. Matthews kicks the leg to solid success, and a left hand to follow is flipped out to decent effect. Matthews just brushes the side of the head with a wide right hand, and Fialho wades into the fray and gets clipped with a right hook. Matthews slides past his man, and he gets touched with a right hand that backs him up to the wall. Fialho crowds Matthews, and they both smash one another on the jaw with clean punches, and it is Fialho that has to back off and gather his thoughts. Matthews jumps forward with a front kick to the body, and he checks a low kick that zips at his calf. Fialho strikes with his shin on Matthews’ lead leg, and he tags his foe with crisp punches. They nail one another with heavy blows, and Matthews lands clean and makes Fialho back up. With seconds to spare, Fialho drills Matthews with a single punch, and Matthews’ legs give way seconds later in a delayed reaction. Matthews falls to his back, threatening with a submission off his back, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Round 2
Fialho begins the second round confidently, marching Matthews down while chambering a right hand. Matthews tries to keep his distance with long jabs, and he gets off a shovel uppercut that hurts Fialho. Matthews cracks his man with a right hand, and he gives chase with an uppercut that buckles Fialho. The man from Portugal does not go down, but he is still on baby deer legs, and he manages to swing wide enough to make Matthews think twice. Fialho gets nipped with a right and an uppercut, and he darts back and bounces off the wall while Matthews is feeling himself. Matthews goes up high with a kick, and it slaps off the high guard. Matthews rings Fialho’s bell with a straight right hand over the top, and Fialho appears to have gathered himself right until Matthews cracks him with another right. Fialho backpedals and loads up on everything he has, sensing he might be in trouble and needs to get Matthews to respect his power. Matthews does not let him off the hook, eating a few shots and firing back harder, with his furious fists crashing into Fialho’s dome. “The Celtic Kid” scores a clean left hand that wobbles Fialho, and he chains punches to the body and the head until Fialho is on the ropes. The Aussie unleashes a fury with one final combination, separating Fialho from his senses and putting him down to the mat for good. Herzog recognizes that there is no more fight left in the ferocious Fialho, and he steps in to save Fialho from further punishment. Matthews puts himself back on the map with that performance, outslugging an exceedingly dangerous striker and beating the power puncher at his own game.
The Official Result
Jake Matthews def. Andre Fialho R2 2:24 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Fialho despite his own gut feeling, citing Fialho's activity and recent knockout streak. He notes Fialho is hittable but believes Matthews' poor fight IQ will lead him to strike instead of wrestle. He acknowledges if Matthews wrestles, he could win, but he trusts Fialho's momentum.
Big Brady picks Jake Matthews as an underdog, expecting him to survive Fialho's early power and take over as the fight progresses. He notes that Fialho has poor cardio and is hittable, while Matthews is well-rounded with solid wrestling and cardio. He predicts a decision win for Matthews, barring a first-round knockout from Fialho.
Cody picks Matthews as a live underdog, citing Fialho's untested grappling and Matthews' improved striking and size at 170. He thinks Matthews can take Fialho down and control him, and notes Fialho's losses have come against grapplers. He is wary of Matthews' history but sees value.
Daniel Levi picks André Fialho, citing Jake Matthews' history of being broken in fights and his poor training situation with his dad. He believes Fialho has the left hook to knock Matthews out, as Matthews leaves openings. He notes that Matthews has been finished multiple times and that Fialho has overcome adversity. He is not crazy about the price but sees Fialho winning, possibly by knockout.
Matthews is the better grappler and has never been knocked out; his only TKO loss was due to grappling. Fialho is on a hot streak but his wins are over fighters with questionable chins. Matthews has the experience and the grappling to neutralize Fialho's power. The line is inflated due to recency bias. I'm all in on Matthews, and the submission prop at +900 is egregious value.
Paul also leans Matthews, agreeing that Fialho's grappling is unproven. He notes Matthews' improvements and thinks he can grind out a win. He acknowledges Matthews' past inconsistencies but sees this as a good spot.
The MMA Guru picks André Fialho to win by late second-round TKO. He argues that Fialho's activity (fourth fight this year) and pressure will be key against Jake Matthews, who has been out for over a year. He believes Matthews is a good all-rounder but doesn't excel in any area, and that Fialho's scrappy style will overwhelm him. He notes that Matthews was wobbled by Emil Meek, and Fialho is a better finisher. He expects Matthews to win the first round but Fialho to take over in the second.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Fialho | 1 | 17 of 24 | 70% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Cameron VanCamp | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | André Fialho | 1 | 17 of 24 | 70% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Cameron VanCamp | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Fialho | 17 of 24 | 70% | 12 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Cameron VanCamp | 19 of 31 | 61% | 9 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | André Fialho | 17 of 24 | 70% | 12 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Cameron VanCamp | 19 of 31 | 61% | 9 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks André Fialho to win by first-round knockout. He believes this is a massive mismatch, as VanCamp is stepping up in competition and Fialho has fought tougher opponents. Fialho has excellent takedown defense and devastating power, as shown in his knockout of Miguel Baeza. VanCamp will want to take the fight down but will struggle to do so. Brady expects Fialho to starch VanCamp in the first round, noting that Fialho's power is some of the best in the division.
Cody picks André Fialho, noting that VanCamp has fought low-level competition and is hittable. Fialho is a power puncher who has improved his chin and cardio. Cody points out that Fialho knocked out Miguel Baeza and is still young (28). He expects Fialho to clip VanCamp and finish him, though the price is high.
Daniel Levi picks André Fialho confidently, expecting a first-round knockout. He notes Fialho's power and activity, and that VanCamp is a low-level regional fighter who does not belong at UFC level. He thinks Fialho will cover the -400 price tag. He does not bet due to the high price but is confident in the pick.
The host picks Fialho to win by first-round knockout but is hesitant due to Fialho's poor performance in longer fights. He notes VanCamp's all-action style and submission threat. He thinks the line is too wide but still expects Fialho to land early. His favorite bet is 'fight doesn't go to decision' at -300, citing both fighters' high finish rates (30 of 39 fights finished inside distance). He also mentions a possible VanCamp submission prop if plus money.
Paul picks André Fialho, agreeing with Cody that Fialho should win. He notes that VanCamp is making his UFC debut against a power puncher and has defensive liabilities. Paul believes Fialho's power and experience will be too much, and that VanCamp's head movement is poor. He expects a Fialho knockout.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Fialho | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 1 | 32 of 56 | 57% | 32 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | André Fialho | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 1 | 32 of 56 | 57% | 32 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Fialho | 24 of 58 | 41% | 15 of 48 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 32 of 56 | 57% | 19 of 41 | 5 of 7 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 49 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | André Fialho | 24 of 58 | 41% | 15 of 48 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 32 of 56 | 57% | 19 of 41 | 5 of 7 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 49 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Miguel Baeza, citing his more technical striking and fantastic grappling. He notes that Baeza has good fight IQ and uses kicks well to wear down opponents. He acknowledges Baeza's chin issues but believes his technical edge will be the difference. He warns that Baeza needs to avoid Fialho's power.
Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza to win by decision. He cites Baeza's speed, volume, cardio, and BJJ black belt as advantages. He notes that Fialho has power but is hittable, low-volume, and fades as the fight goes on. Brady expects Baeza to outpoint Fialho over three rounds, though he acknowledges Fialho's puncher's chance.
Cody leans towards Fialho, noting his improved striking at Sanford MMA and his power. He thinks Fialho can clip Baeza, who has shown durability issues in prolonged striking battles. However, he lacks high confidence, especially if the fight extends into later rounds.
Daniel Levi leans Miguel Baeza but is hesitant due to Baeza's confidence after two losses, including a KO. He notes Baeza's calf kicks, range, and jiu-jitsu black belt, but worries about his mental state and whether he will be hesitant early. Fialho is dangerous early with power and aggression, but Levi expects Baeza to take over as the fight progresses if he survives the initial onslaught. He is not willing to lay the -185 price.
Paul does not make a clear pick, calling it a 'dogger pass'. He notes both fighters have power and chin issues, and expects a striking battle that may not go the distance. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds and fight doesn't go to decision as potential props.
The MMA Guru picks André Fialho by first-round KO. He criticizes Miguel Baeza's chin and notes his recent KO loss to Khaos Williams. He believes Fialho's training at Sanford MMA and full camp will lead to an early finish, as Baeza may be hesitant after his last KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Pereira | 0 | 107 of 202 | 52% | 112 of 209 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 45 of 135 | 33% | 48 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michel Pereira | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 17 of 45 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 12 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Michel Pereira | 0 | 47 of 81 | 58% | 51 of 85 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Michel Pereira | 0 | 43 of 78 | 55% | 44 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 17 of 65 | 26% | 20 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Pereira | 107 of 202 | 52% | 49 of 122 | 44 of 66 | 14 of 14 | 96 of 188 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 45 of 135 | 33% | 40 of 128 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 36 of 122 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michel Pereira | 17 of 43 | 39% | 4 of 24 | 11 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 12 of 41 | 29% | 12 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | |
| 2 | Michel Pereira | 47 of 81 | 58% | 18 of 47 | 23 of 28 | 6 of 6 | 37 of 68 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 16 of 29 | 55% | 13 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 23 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michel Pereira | 43 of 78 | 55% | 27 of 51 | 10 of 21 | 6 of 6 | 42 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 17 of 65 | 26% | 15 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michel Pereira, citing his speed, athleticism, and improved cardio. He notes Fialho's lack of head movement and tendency to throw one strike at a time, which Pereira can exploit. However, he acknowledges Fialho's real power and durability, making him dangerous late in the fight.
Big Brady picks Michel Pereira to win by decision, citing Pereira's massive volume, speed, and cardio advantages over Fialho. He notes that Fialho is powerful but low volume, slow, and takes fights on short notice. Pereira is durable (only one KO loss in 37 fights) and has solid wrestling and BJJ as alternate paths. He acknowledges Fialho's power but believes it's a bad matchup for him.
Cody picks Michel Pereira, stating that Pereira is leveled above Fialho in striking and that Fialho's game falls apart if he doesn't finish early. He notes that Fialho has been released by Bellator and PFL, and that his cardio and defensive striking are poor. Cody warns that Pereira can be reckless and may get disqualified, but believes Pereira's speed, durability, and power will prevail. He also mentions that Pereira has shown improved cardio in recent decisions.
Daniel Levi leans toward Michel Pereira but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He acknowledges Fialho's momentum and power but believes Pereira's athleticism, discipline at 170, and recent improvements make him the pick. Levi notes that Pereira has faced hard hitters before and that Fialho's competition hasn't been at the same level. He expects Pereira to land a big knee or straight right and finish Fialho.
The host sees this as a perfect stylistic matchup for Pereira, who will stay on the outside and avoid Fiallo's preferred boxing range. He notes that Fiallo struggles when opponents dictate the pace and that Pereira's movement and the larger cage will benefit him. He expects Pereira to touch Fiallo up and possibly knock him out, predicting a second-round KO.
Paul picks Michel Pereira but is hesitant due to Pereira's tendency to do reckless things like backflips that could lead to disqualification. He notes that Pereira's cardio is questionable and that he gassed against Niko Price. However, Paul acknowledges that Fialho is not a high-level opponent and that Pereira should win if he fights smart. He advises being careful with the bet.
The MMA Guru picks Michel Pereira, predicting a first-round KO via flying knee. He notes Fialho's power and training at Sanford MMA but believes Fialho's short-notice aggression will leave him open. He compares the matchup to Pereira's win over Chaos Williams, expecting Pereira to land a big shot on the advancing Fialho.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Fialho despite his own gut feeling, citing Fialho's activity and recent knockout streak. He notes Fialho is hittable but believes Matthews' poor fight IQ will lead him to strike instead of wrestle. He acknowledges if Matthews wrestles, he could win, but he trusts Fialho's momentum.
Big Brady picks Jake Matthews as an underdog, expecting him to survive Fialho's early power and take over as the fight progresses. He notes that Fialho has poor cardio and is hittable, while Matthews is well-rounded with solid wrestling and cardio. He predicts a decision win for Matthews, barring a first-round knockout from Fialho.
Cody picks Matthews as a live underdog, citing Fialho's untested grappling and Matthews' improved striking and size at 170. He thinks Matthews can take Fialho down and control him, and notes Fialho's losses have come against grapplers. He is wary of Matthews' history but sees value.
Daniel Levi picks André Fialho, citing Jake Matthews' history of being broken in fights and his poor training situation with his dad. He believes Fialho has the left hook to knock Matthews out, as Matthews leaves openings. He notes that Matthews has been finished multiple times and that Fialho has overcome adversity. He is not crazy about the price but sees Fialho winning, possibly by knockout.
Matthews is the better grappler and has never been knocked out; his only TKO loss was due to grappling. Fialho is on a hot streak but his wins are over fighters with questionable chins. Matthews has the experience and the grappling to neutralize Fialho's power. The line is inflated due to recency bias. I'm all in on Matthews, and the submission prop at +900 is egregious value.
Paul also leans Matthews, agreeing that Fialho's grappling is unproven. He notes Matthews' improvements and thinks he can grind out a win. He acknowledges Matthews' past inconsistencies but sees this as a good spot.
The MMA Guru picks André Fialho to win by late second-round TKO. He argues that Fialho's activity (fourth fight this year) and pressure will be key against Jake Matthews, who has been out for over a year. He believes Matthews is a good all-rounder but doesn't excel in any area, and that Fialho's scrappy style will overwhelm him. He notes that Matthews was wobbled by Emil Meek, and Fialho is a better finisher. He expects Matthews to win the first round but Fialho to take over in the second.
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