UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022 · Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje Next Fight
Age 34
Height 5' 6"
Reach 68"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 30
Height 5' 5"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - C.J. Vergara
5.02 SLpM
56.0% Str. Acc.
4.69 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Kleydson Rodrigues
4.58 SLpM
57.0% Str. Acc.
2.29 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.6 TD Avg
22.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
C.J. Vergara
Moneyline
Caesars +330
KO/TKO
DraftKings +700
Submission
FanDuel +2600
Decision
FanDuel +650
Kleydson Rodrigues
Moneyline
BetWay -350
KO/TKO
FanDuel +230
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
BetMGM +175
C.J. Vergara - Fight History
LOSS vs Édgar Cháirez
Submission R1 2:30 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Édgar Cháirez 0 8 of 27 29% 8 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
C.J. Vergara 0 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Édgar Cháirez 0 8 of 27 29% 8 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
C.J. Vergara 0 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Édgar Cháirez 8 of 27 29% 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 2 7 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 1
C.J. Vergara 6 of 13 46% 1 of 2 0 of 3 5 of 8 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Édgar Cháirez 8 of 27 29% 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 2 7 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 1
C.J. Vergara 6 of 13 46% 1 of 2 0 of 3 5 of 8 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Edgar Chairez vs. C.J. Vergara
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chairez (-278), Vergara (+225)

Round 1
It is unfortunate that in the year 2025, the UFC is still depositing a match between two fighters with losing records in the promotion this high on its billing. It originally was a bit lower, but when Pyfer vs. Gastelum fell off, this flyweight encounter shifted up to this slot. If there is a silver lining, it is that one of these two will hold the coveted .500 mark in the Octagon at night’s end. Whether that is Chairez (11-6, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) or Vergara (12-6-1, 3-4 UFC), referee Marc Goddard will be the first to know. A respectful glove touch starts things off, and Vergara comes out firing with a one-two that is off the mark. Chairez gets behind his jab, take full advantage of his long reach, and they trade low kicks. Chairez just misses with an uppercut, but his jab is already reddening the face of Vergara. Vergara comes up short on his own offense, and Chairez is able to pick at him from his preferred distance. Jabs continue popping Vergara in the face until calf kicks fly his direction, reddening and welting it in a hurry. Chairez lines up a jab and loops a left hook behind it, flooring Vergara for a moment. Vergara gets back up and tries to escape, but Chairez is on him and backs him to the wall with swinging fists. Vergara drops to his knees, and rather than punch his man out,
the Mexican leaps on Vergara’s back and wraps up a rear-naked choke. The submission is almost instantly tight, but it does not slide underneath the American’s chin and is settled firmly on his jaw. Chairez, destined on keeping his 100% finish rate intact, crushes the face crank with all his might. The sheer horsepower from the squeeze is enough for Vergara to surrender
, and Goddard recognizes the tap and gets between them. The victor, completely overcome with emotion, goes to his corner and then drops to his knees in tears, just now processing what he accomplished in front of thousands of screaming fans. Chairez has the building in the palm of his hands, yet he cannot stop weeping.

The Official Result
Edgar Chairez def. C.J. Vergara R1 2:30 via Submission (Face Crank)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

Connor picks Cháirez despite acknowledging his flaws, such as dropping for guillotines and compromising his range. He believes Cháirez is the more likely damage dealer and that Vergara's athletic limitations will be a wall. However, he is not particularly confident due to Cháirez's inconsistency.

"I'll take Chaires as well. I'm not particularly confident about it, he's a hard fighter to trust."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

Zane picks Cháirez, noting that Vergara's boxing and wrestling game could be effective but that Cháirez's long straight punches and willingness to work in close make him dangerous. He thinks Vergara may get caught stepping back. Zane is not fully confident due to Cháirez's tendency to make bad decisions.

"It should be so obvious to just take his ass down though right... but I don't know, even if he does who's to say he doesn't just take one straight step backwards and get decked by a long right hand?"
LOSS vs Ramazan Temirov
TKO (punches) R1 2:50 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ramazan Temirov 0 4 of 16 25% 4 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
C.J. Vergara 3 23 of 55 41% 23 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ramazan Temirov 0 4 of 16 25% 4 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
C.J. Vergara 3 23 of 55 41% 23 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ramazan Temirov 4 of 16 25% 1 of 12 1 of 1 2 of 3 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 23 of 55 41% 18 of 46 4 of 8 1 of 1 20 of 50 0 of 0 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ramazan Temirov 4 of 16 25% 1 of 12 1 of 1 2 of 3 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 23 of 55 41% 18 of 46 4 of 8 1 of 1 20 of 50 0 of 0 3 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Angelo picks Ramazan Temirov, noting his lightning-fast striking and power. He acknowledges that UFC debuts are tricky, but Temirov seems different with confidence and experience pushing through adversity. Angelo believes Temirov's speed and power will be too much for Vergara, especially if he connects like Daniel Lacerda did. He plans to wait for prop bets before wagering.

Waiting for prop bets
"tamarov seems different... I think he's going to get the win."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Big Brady picks Ramazan Temirov to win by first-round knockout. He notes Temirov is a knockout artist with power, but Vergara is durable and has never been knocked out. However, Vergara was almost knocked out by Daniel da Silva, so Brady thinks Temirov can hurt him. He worries about Temirov's cardio if the fight goes long, but expects early big shots to get the finish. He suggests this could be a good live bet spot if Temirov doesn't finish in the first.

Temirov by first-round knockout; live bet if not finished in round 1
"I'll go tamarov to win this fight I'll say first round knockout but this might be a good like live bet spot"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Vergara is a very tough test but Temirov's athleticism and ability to land shocking shots give him the edge. He points out that Vergara is slow and not dynamic, and Temirov's scrambling ability makes him hard to hold down. Connor thinks the odds are too wide in Temirov's favor.

Odds too wide; Temirov should be around -150 to -200, Vergara around +150 to +100.
"I got to agree on and if it's a very if it's a more typical kind of performance or even on the the more lackadaisical side then Vergara is totally capable of kind of shutting him out"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Daniel is very high on Temirov's aggressive, spinning attack style and killer instinct, but he worries about a potential debut stun. He notes that Vergara is durable and well-rounded but not exceptional. Daniel believes if Temirov fights with his usual confidence, he will win impressively, possibly even becoming the first to knock out Vergara in the UFC.

"I'm picking Temirov 100%... as long as Ramazan Temirov doesn't pull some debut stun where he's hesitant to throw, I think he's going to whoop CJ Vergara's ass."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Temirov is a much better version of Vergara, both leaning on striking. Temirov is more explosive, faster, and better with footwork, cutting angles to crash the pocket. He should land big strikes and find a knockout within the first two rounds.

knockout within first two rounds
"look for him to land his big strikes and eventually finding knockout here over Vergara within the first two rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

The MMA Guru picks Ramazan Temirov, praising his finishing potential, explosiveness, and activity. He dismisses C.J. Vergara as 'dog [__]' and notes Vergara's losses and lack of talent. He expects Temirov to win by decision, as Vergara may put up a fight and take a round, but Temirov's youth and experience edge prevail.

decision
"I'm going to go with ramesan Beck tamarov getting this one done probably by decision"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Zane thinks Temirov can win if he pushes for the finish, as he is an athletic freak with fast, accurate strikes. However, he notes Temirov has a poor understanding of pace and often wastes time circling. Zane acknowledges Vergara is a tough, persistent pressure fighter who could shut Temirov out if he's lackadaisical.

Odds too wide; Temirov should be around -150 to -200, Vergara around +150 to +100.
"I just think this looks like the kind of fight where as long as Tamarov like pushes for the finish he'll probably be able to win it"
LOSS vs Asu Almabayev
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Asu Almabayev 0 29 of 53 54% 66 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
C.J. Vergara 0 44 of 77 57% 85 of 132 9 of 14 64% 0 0 9:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Asu Almabayev 0 7 of 14 50% 13 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
C.J. Vergara 0 16 of 25 64% 23 of 34 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:14
2 Asu Almabayev 0 8 of 12 66% 25 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
C.J. Vergara 0 12 of 21 57% 36 of 55 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:35
3 Asu Almabayev 0 14 of 27 51% 28 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
C.J. Vergara 0 16 of 31 51% 26 of 43 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Asu Almabayev 29 of 53 54% 13 of 32 14 of 17 2 of 4 22 of 46 4 of 4 3 of 3
C.J. Vergara 44 of 77 57% 22 of 53 9 of 11 13 of 13 23 of 51 8 of 10 13 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Asu Almabayev 7 of 14 50% 3 of 9 3 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 16 of 25 64% 7 of 15 3 of 4 6 of 6 10 of 19 2 of 2 4 of 4
2 Asu Almabayev 8 of 12 66% 5 of 8 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 3
C.J. Vergara 12 of 21 57% 10 of 19 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 9 1 of 2 7 of 10
3 Asu Almabayev 14 of 27 51% 5 of 15 9 of 11 0 of 1 13 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 16 of 31 51% 5 of 19 5 of 6 6 of 6 9 of 23 5 of 6 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Angelo is confident in Asu Almabayev, citing his wild striking, strong grappling, and cardio. He notes that if Tatu Riera could take down Vergara three times, Almabayev can too. He sees Almabayev as safe to parlay, contrasting him with point fighters he's wary of.

"asu's going to win this fight he's just too good he's Wild on his feet he's great on the ground he can hang in the cardio Department with CJ and quite simply if Tatu ryra who is very good but …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Big Brady picks Asu Almabayev to win by third-round submission. He notes that Almabayev has good grappling and control, and that Vergara has been taken down and submitted in the past. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the mat and eventually find a submission over 15 minutes.

win by third round submission
"give me alv here Alma to win this fight by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Cody thinks Almabayev's wrestling will be too much for Vergara, who has poor takedown defense. He expects Almabayev to chain wrestle and control the fight on the ground, possibly securing a submission.

Almabayev by submission (+150)
"I gotta roll with the favorite here what is assu by sub let's see it's early in the week obviously the early prelims don't have too many props out plus 150 and moving it opened at plus 175 I mean …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Daniel picks Almabayev, believing he will dictate the pace and win by decision or submission. He notes Vergara is durable and well-rounded but not special anywhere. Daniel was initially low on Almabayev but was impressed by his performance against Ode' Osbourne.

"I think that alabay is going to dictate the pace and he's going to win on the scorecards or or by submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Almabayev is a hot prospect who is very solid all around, but his best work is when he gets fights to the mat. He has impressive chain wrestling, using body locks and trips to drag opponents down. Vergara is a decent striker but lacks the power to keep Almabayev at bay, and his ground game is a weakness. I expect Almabayev to drag this fight to the ground, dominate from top position, and secure another submission victory.

Almabayev by submission
"I expect alab to drag this fight to the ground dominate from that top position and secure another submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Paul agrees, noting that Vergara has been taken down repeatedly and submitted in the past. He thinks Almabayev's wrestling and submission skills will lead to a finish.

Almabayev by submission (+150)
"I gotta roll with the favorite here what is assu by sub let's see it's early in the week obviously the early prelims don't have too many props out plus 150 and moving it opened at plus 175 I mean …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

The MMA Guru is confident in Asu Almabayev due to his grappling advantage and C.J. Vergara's unimpressive UFC run. He notes Vergara has struggled against lower-level opponents and was dominated by Tatsuya Taira and Ode' Osbourne. He highlights Almabayev's dominant grappling win over Osbourne and predicts a first-round submission.

submission in the first round
"I am going to have to side with the grappling of ASU almv ... I'm going to go with ASU alab BV winning this fight by submission in the first round"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
C.J. Vergara 0 109 of 181 60% 109 of 181 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vinicius Salvador 0 88 of 195 45% 89 of 196 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 C.J. Vergara 0 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vinicius Salvador 0 20 of 40 50% 20 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 C.J. Vergara 0 45 of 71 63% 45 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vinicius Salvador 0 30 of 64 46% 31 of 65 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
3 C.J. Vergara 0 44 of 77 57% 44 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vinicius Salvador 0 38 of 91 41% 38 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
C.J. Vergara 109 of 181 60% 43 of 102 45 of 57 21 of 22 104 of 176 5 of 5 0 of 0
Vinicius Salvador 88 of 195 45% 54 of 154 19 of 25 15 of 16 87 of 194 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 C.J. Vergara 20 of 33 60% 4 of 14 10 of 13 6 of 6 20 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vinicius Salvador 20 of 40 50% 8 of 26 3 of 4 9 of 10 20 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 C.J. Vergara 45 of 71 63% 14 of 34 21 of 26 10 of 11 41 of 67 4 of 4 0 of 0
Vinicius Salvador 30 of 64 46% 19 of 50 6 of 9 5 of 5 29 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 C.J. Vergara 44 of 77 57% 25 of 54 14 of 18 5 of 5 43 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
Vinicius Salvador 38 of 91 41% 27 of 78 10 of 12 1 of 1 38 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2023 (6 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Angelo is very confident in C.J. Vergara, calling him as close to a lock as you can get. He highlights Vergara's incredible chin, pressure, power, and solid takedown defense. He plans to bet on him but is monitoring the line movement for the best value.

monitoring line movement for value
"I think he's as close to a lock as you're gonna get we know he has an incredible chin if he gets caught he should have the better pressure equal or better power and solid enough takedown defense to stand …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Big Brady picks C.J. Vergara to win by late third-round knockout. He questions Salvador's legitimacy after a terrible debut, citing poor striking, takedown defense, and fight IQ. He believes Vergara has durability and cardio advantages, especially at elevation, and expects Vergara to weather an early storm and finish a fading Salvador late.

late third round knockout
"I'll take uh CG regara here I'll take him to whether the early storm put it on Venetia Salvador and I think he can finish him late third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Cody likes Vergara's significant strikes over 57.5 on PrizePicks, expecting a striking match that goes into the third round. He notes Vergara's volume in previous fights (71 against Rodriguez) and believes he can reach that number. He doesn't have a strong side on the moneyline but leans Vergara for the prop.

Vergara over 57.5 significant strikes
"some prize picks 57 and a half significant strikes for Vergara I kind of think that this goes at least into the third round"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

James sides with Salvador as a dog, believing he has cleaner hands and more power than Vergara. He notes Vergara is durable but gets hit often and has been hurt in multiple fights. He thinks Salvador can have big moments and possibly knock Vergara down, and that the line should be closer to a pick'em.

"I have to side with him a plus 140 I have to say he's the side"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

Salvador is a crafty striker who will have an easier time hitting Vergara than he did against Altamirano. Vergara's grappling isn't good enough to ground Salvador effectively. Salvador's output and damage will earn him a decision. I'm taking Salvador by decision.

"I'm actually going to take him to one by decision I think it's going to be the output and the volume and then the constant you know eating up of clock from Vergara whether it's in the clinch or with …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

Paul picks Salvador at plus money, citing his power and size advantage. He notes Vergara's lack of takedown threat and tendency to stay in the pocket, which plays into Salvador's hands. He worries about Salvador's cardio at altitude but believes his power can get the job done early. He calls it a 'dog or pass' but leans Salvador.

"I am actually going to take vinicius Salvador he was hoping he brings uh brings his lunchbox with him"
TKO (punches) R2 4:04 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
C.J. Vergara 0 83 of 144 57% 98 of 164 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:54
Daniel Lacerda 2 48 of 117 41% 51 of 120 1 of 2 50% 2 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 C.J. Vergara 0 20 of 38 52% 24 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Daniel Lacerda 2 44 of 103 42% 46 of 105 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:40
2 C.J. Vergara 0 63 of 106 59% 74 of 122 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:51
Daniel Lacerda 0 4 of 14 28% 5 of 15 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
C.J. Vergara 83 of 144 57% 57 of 103 16 of 29 10 of 12 34 of 65 0 of 2 49 of 77
Daniel Lacerda 48 of 117 41% 32 of 94 11 of 17 5 of 6 42 of 106 4 of 7 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 C.J. Vergara 20 of 38 52% 8 of 21 4 of 8 8 of 9 20 of 36 0 of 2 0 of 0
Daniel Lacerda 44 of 103 42% 30 of 84 9 of 13 5 of 6 38 of 92 4 of 7 2 of 4
2 C.J. Vergara 63 of 106 59% 49 of 82 12 of 21 2 of 3 14 of 29 0 of 0 49 of 77
Daniel Lacerda 4 of 14 28% 2 of 10 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Angelo is very confident in Vergara, calling him one of his most confident picks. He notes that Vergara is a high-pressure fighter who stays busy and is tough. He thinks da Silva is dangerous early but fades, and Vergara's pressure will be too much. He recommends betting 'fight doesn't go to decision' rather than a moneyline.

Fight doesn't go to decision (recommended parlay piece)
"CJ Vergara is one of my most confident picks on this entire card."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Big Brady picks C.J. Vergara by first-round knockout, calling Daniel da Silva not UFC caliber. He notes da Silva's poor cardio (2.5 minutes of gas), lack of durability, and tendency to fold under adversity. Brady believes Vergara's pressure and toughness will overwhelm da Silva, who has been finished in all three UFC losses. He expects a quick finish as soon as da Silva faces any adversity.

Vergara by KO/TKO in round 1
"I like Vergara here I like vegara by finish first round finish even"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Cody picks Vergara, calling the line bad and favoring Vergara's heart and cardio. He notes da Silva is explosive but fades after the first round, while Vergara is tenacious and breaks opponents down. He suggests Vergara inside the distance and likes the over 1.5 rounds on PrizePicks (over 5 minutes).

Vergara inside the distance; over 1.5 rounds
"Pick would be varaguera to improve this thing bear gear inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Vergara without hesitation. He describes Lacerda as a 'flyweight Eric Silva' who is dangerous in the first minute but then falls apart. Vergara is a proven tough guy who hangs around and doesn't get blown out, making him a reliable pick against a fighter with no regulation or longevity in his style.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm with you all the way on this one."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Jacob picks Vergara, agreeing that he should win with toughness. He notes that da Silva is dangerous early but fades, and Vergara's toughness should carry him. However, he feels da Silva is 'due' for a win and might pull off an upset, but still picks Vergara.

"CJ is a play because you should get it done but there's just something about Daniel it's like it feels like this might be his moment."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Lacerda

The host picks Daniel da Silva as a big underdog, believing his speed, explosiveness, and power advantage will be too much for Vergara. He notes da Silva is fighting for his job and expects a calculated but reckless style. He predicts a first-round finish, possibly by submission, and likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and under 1.5 rounds.

fight doesn't go to decision, under 1.5 rounds, Daniel da Silva round 1
"I'm gonna go Daniel Da Silva first round I'm gonna call it via club and sub"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

The Guru picks Vergara, heavily criticizing da Silva's fight IQ and defensive mistakes. He believes Vergara is more reliable and can tough out danger. He predicts a second or third round TKO.

second or third round TKO
"I'm gonna go for CJ fagara here... I think he's consistently more trustworthy as a fighter than Daniel de Silva is"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Zane picks C.J. Vergara because he sees Daniel Lacerda as a self-destructive fighter who explodes and fades quickly, while Vergara is tough, reliable, and consistently puts forward pressure. Vergara may be slow and not athletic, but he is durable and will be in Lacerda's face the whole time. Zane notes that Lacerda has imploded in every UFC fight so far, and Vergara is exactly the kind of grinder who can survive the initial storm and take over.

Odds: Lacerda opened at +220, currently +203; Vergara opened at -216, currently -256. Zane likes Vergara as a reasonable favorite.
"I can't pick the dude who just got his shit wrecked by Victor Altamorano."
LOSS vs Tatsuro Taira
Submission (armbar) R2 4:19 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatsuro Taira 0 22 of 36 61% 31 of 46 3 of 8 37% 2 0 6:19
C.J. Vergara 0 19 of 30 63% 29 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatsuro Taira 0 13 of 22 59% 21 of 31 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:30
C.J. Vergara 0 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:31
2 Tatsuro Taira 0 9 of 14 64% 10 of 15 1 of 4 25% 2 0 2:49
C.J. Vergara 0 11 of 17 64% 21 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatsuro Taira 22 of 36 61% 14 of 28 5 of 5 3 of 3 15 of 26 3 of 4 4 of 6
C.J. Vergara 19 of 30 63% 13 of 23 5 of 6 1 of 1 12 of 23 3 of 3 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatsuro Taira 13 of 22 59% 10 of 19 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 13 2 of 3 4 of 6
C.J. Vergara 8 of 13 61% 4 of 8 4 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 4
2 Tatsuro Taira 9 of 14 64% 4 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 11 of 17 64% 9 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 14 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tatsuro Taira vs. C.J. Vergara (129: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-240), Vergara (+200)

Round 1
For the second time in three UFC appearances, Vergara (10-3-1, 1-1 UFC) has come in well over the flyweight limit. Ahead of his pairing with the undefeated Taira (11-0, 1-0 UFC), Vergara clocked in at 129 ready pounds. While collecting 30% of Vergara’s paycheck, Japan’s Taira will try to keep his spotless record intact against a heavier foe. The Octagon ranger for this now-129-pound catchweight contest will be referee Kerry Hatley, and the two fighters slowly move towards one another with no intention of a glove touch. Vergara looks to close the distance early, sticking out a few jabs, and Taira stays light on his feet to respond with a quick high kick. Vergara lumbers towards the longer man, and he walks right into a left hook. As Vergara keeps plodding forward, Taira grabs hold of him, lifts him in the air and slams him down while letting out a yelp. The Japanese fighter lands in side control, and he grips tightly to squeeze his shoulder down on Vergara’s head. Vergara bucks a few times, but he only ends up getting elbowed for his work. Taira attempts to move to mount, and as he does, Vergara times a kick-off to stop the guard pass. Taira keeps moving, and he works his way to north-south position while Vergara traps his foe’s head between his legs with an inverted scissor choke of sorts. Taira shrugs it off and shifts to side control, and he glides into mount. The American times this perfectly to spin Taira around, and he finds himself on top. Taira does not accept this, kicking Vergara off of him and returning them to the feet. They trade kicks, and Taira shoots for a takedown as Vergara is backed up to the wall. Taira jumps immediately to full mount, but this is a short-lived positional maneuver as Vergara pulls him back and threatens with a guillotine choke. This is not the best plan for him, as Taira uses that against him and crushes down with a Von Preux choke. Vergara grimaces and manages to release his grip, and Taira slides to the side and prepares to move to mount again. Vergara skillfully turns Taira over, and he uses a modified arm-triangle choke to keep Taira honest. The unbeaten fighter grits out of the choke and stands up, where he promptly tees off on his man with punches and a knee. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Taira

Round 2
Vergara darts out of his corner, but he cannot find his target to start off the round. Taira drifts out of harm’s way and plans a leg kick so heavily that Vergara falls over to the mat. Taira allows him to stand so that he can lay into him with another nasty calf kick. Taira lets his hands go with a one-two, and he surprises Vergara with his left shin. Vergara attempts to respond with a looping left hand, and Taira changes levels and nearly walks into a knee. The American keeps his balance and backs off to score a few punches, and Taira responds with a knee strike and a takedown effort. Vergara backs off to the cage in an effort to keep himself upright, but Taira brilliantly snakes around the side to trip out Vergara from behind, where he lands on his back while claiming back control. Vergara fights off a body triangle from one side, and as soon as he moves to break it, Taira shifts his lefts to the other side. While Vergara attempts to escape, Taira latches on to a rear-naked choke, but it is on the chin. Taira nevertheless squeezes with all his might, hoping for a face crank if he cannot sneak the forearm beneath the chin. The Japanese fighter releases the submission so as to not burn his arms out from attempting an unsecured choke, and he switches to his other side with another rear-naked choke. Vergara keeps his chin down, surviving another choke, and he prepares to escape.
As his opponent takes a breath, Taira transitions right into an armbar, and Vergara stands up. The arm of the heavier fighter is still very much trapped in the armbar, and he considers lifting Taira up to slam him out but he does not have the horsepower to do so. The elbow hyperextends as Taira straightens the arm out and then some, and Vergara promptly taps out to escape permanent damage
. That’s one more win for the still-unbeaten Taira, who now celebrates exactly half of his pro wins by submission.

The Official Result
Tatsuro Taira def. C.J. Vergara R2 4:19 via Submission (Armbar)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Angelo picks C.J. Vergara as an underdog, noting that he has takedown defense, pressure, and is a dangerous striker. He is surprised by the 3-to-1 odds favoring Taira, as Vergara only has one close loss in the UFC. Angelo likes Vergara's chances and placed a half-unit bet at +205 (now +200). He acknowledges some nervousness about backing an underdog at these odds but is confident in his pick.

Bet 0.5 units at +205 (now +200)
"I throw half a unit on him at plus 200 all the premium members saw that or sorry at plus 205"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Big Brady leans toward Tatsuro Taira to win by submission in the second round. He praises Taira's elite grappling and back-takes, but has concerns about his low striking volume and wrestling. He notes that Vergara throws high volume and could win if the fight stays on the feet. Brady says he's not touching the -240 price but picks Taira to get a takedown and finish with his ground game.

Taira wins by submission, second round
"I am leaning on the Tara side... I'll take him to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Cody picks Taira by submission, noting his slick grappling and ability to take the back. He points out Vergara exposes his back when getting up and makes mistakes. He likes the submission prop at +350 and thinks Taira will find a finish.

Taira by submission +350; Taira under 60.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I think Tyra could very well find the finish here and and do so by submission so I'm impressed."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Taira has a similar striking style to Odie Osborne, using length and kicks, but mixes in solid jiu-jitsu and back takes. Vergara is tough and has pressure, but Taira should control the distance and find takedowns. The host is not fully sold on Taira's potential at -230 but expects him to win by decision. He likes Taira but not enough to bet the moneyline.

"I like Tara here just not 100 sold on his uh money line here at minus 230"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Paul picks Taira, expecting him to take Vergara's back and control him. He compares Taira's grappling to Ryan Hall or Aljamain Sterling, noting his ability to body triangle and neutralize opponents. He thinks Taira will dominate but is unsure if he will submit or just control.

"I gotta say uh targets the job does he submit him I don't know I'm kind of thinking he just takes his back and controls him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

The MMA Guru picks Tatsuro Taira, believing he has overcome debut jitters and will make significant improvements as a 22-year-old. He notes that CJ Vergara is underrated but gives up positional control and leaves openings in scrambles. He predicts Taira will find the back and choke out Vergara in the second round via rear-naked choke.

prediction: submission in round 2
"I think eventually tatsuro Terra will find the back and choke out CJ Vergara"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
C.J. Vergara 0 81 of 143 56% 93 of 156 2 of 7 28% 1 2 3:14
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 71 of 127 55% 155 of 221 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 C.J. Vergara 0 48 of 88 54% 52 of 92 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:54
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 27 of 51 52% 54 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 C.J. Vergara 0 13 of 17 76% 20 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:09
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 26 of 39 66% 65 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:58
3 C.J. Vergara 0 20 of 38 52% 21 of 40 1 of 3 33% 1 1 2:11
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 18 of 37 48% 36 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
C.J. Vergara 81 of 143 56% 39 of 91 32 of 40 10 of 12 70 of 131 6 of 7 5 of 5
Kleydson Rodrigues 71 of 127 55% 42 of 89 18 of 25 11 of 13 45 of 92 7 of 10 19 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 C.J. Vergara 48 of 88 54% 20 of 52 18 of 24 10 of 12 44 of 84 4 of 4 0 of 0
Kleydson Rodrigues 27 of 51 52% 12 of 31 8 of 11 7 of 9 25 of 48 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 C.J. Vergara 13 of 17 76% 8 of 11 5 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 13 1 of 1 3 of 3
Kleydson Rodrigues 26 of 39 66% 21 of 32 3 of 5 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 18 of 24
3 C.J. Vergara 20 of 38 52% 11 of 28 9 of 10 0 of 0 17 of 34 1 of 2 2 of 2
Kleydson Rodrigues 18 of 37 48% 9 of 26 7 of 9 2 of 2 13 of 30 4 of 6 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Angelo picks C.J. Vergara despite the bookies favoring Kleydson Rodrigues. He believes Vergara can get inside Rodrigues' looping punches and beat him to the punch. He notes that Vergara is a beast in the clinch but worries about Rodrigues' takedowns from the clinch. He references Vergara's striking output in his UFC debut.

"I think cj can get inside of them and literally beat clayton to the punch"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Kleydson Rodrigues to win by decision. He is impressed by Rodrigues' striking volume, mixing kicks to the legs, body, and head. Vergara is tough and had a close fight with Ode Osbourne, but Rodrigues is a much tougher matchup on the feet. Rodrigues has good get-up game if taken down. Brady thinks Rodrigues has more tools and will outwork Vergara over three rounds, though the -280 price is steep. He expects a decision win for Rodrigues.

decision
"I like clinton rodriguez here quite a bit ... I like rodriguez here and I like him quite a bit and I'm excited to see him make his debut"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Cody picks Kleydson Rodrigues, calling him a promising prospect with excellent technique. He notes Rodrigues' knees, elbows, and cardio, and that he improves as the fight goes on. Cody contrasts Vergara's straight-line movement and poor footwork. He believes Rodrigues will outwork Vergara and likely win a decision.

"i would think i'm leaning towards decision for clayton rodriguez"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Daniel Levi picks Kleydson Rodrigues confidently, though he does not bet due to the high price. He likes Rodrigues' athleticism, kicks, and takedown defense, and thinks he has a much higher ceiling than Vergara. He acknowledges Vergara's toughness and cardio but expects Rodrigues to win. He does not bet at -350.

Daniel does not bet this fight. He mentions possibly putting Rodrigues in a parlay but does not.
"My pick is Clayton. I think he's got the much higher ceiling. I think he's the much more potential. But CJ, he's got that spirit about him. So it's gonna be a good fight but give me Clayton to get …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

The host is very high on Kleydson Rodrigues, calling him a future top 5-7 flyweight. He praises his striking and jiu-jitsu, though notes cardio is questionable. He dismisses C.J. Vergara as a solid striker but not UFC caliber, pointing to Vergara's close decisions and draws on the regional scene. He expects Rodrigues to win via decision, as Vergara is durable. He might include Rodrigues in a parlay.

"clayton i think this guy is the [ __ ] i think he truly has the potential to be a top five to seven guy in this division"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Paul picks Kleydson Rodrigues, impressed by his defensive capabilities and well-rounded game. He notes that Rodrigues barely got hit on the Contender Series and has good striking defense. Paul believes Vergara is limited, throwing looping left hooks, and that Rodrigues will cover the price tag. He acknowledges the debut nerves but is confident.

"i'm picking clayton to win in this spot i do think that he's uh he's a real decent uh prospect coming up into this division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Kleydson Rodrigues, praising his unorthodox style and power. He believes Rodrigues' movement and kicks will keep Vergara guessing, and that Vergara may become overwhelmed. He predicts Rodrigues will win the first two rounds, possibly scoring a knockdown, and win 29-28. He notes Rodrigues is a big, powerful flyweight at 26 years old.

Rodrigues 29-28
"i'm gonna go i've played some rodriguez 29-28 winning the first two rounds on his unorthodoxy and his power"
LOSS vs Ode' Osbourne
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ode' Osbourne 0 93 of 165 56% 122 of 197 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:41
C.J. Vergara 0 79 of 194 40% 89 of 208 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ode' Osbourne 0 24 of 52 46% 24 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
C.J. Vergara 0 34 of 75 45% 34 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Ode' Osbourne 0 28 of 48 58% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
C.J. Vergara 0 26 of 71 36% 31 of 78 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:17
3 Ode' Osbourne 0 41 of 65 63% 70 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:40
C.J. Vergara 0 19 of 48 39% 24 of 55 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ode' Osbourne 93 of 165 56% 35 of 99 51 of 59 7 of 7 68 of 129 16 of 22 9 of 14
C.J. Vergara 79 of 194 40% 61 of 168 15 of 23 3 of 3 77 of 191 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ode' Osbourne 24 of 52 46% 10 of 35 10 of 13 4 of 4 22 of 49 2 of 3 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 34 of 75 45% 23 of 62 9 of 11 2 of 2 34 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ode' Osbourne 28 of 48 58% 11 of 30 14 of 15 3 of 3 28 of 46 0 of 2 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 26 of 71 36% 21 of 63 4 of 7 1 of 1 25 of 69 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Ode' Osbourne 41 of 65 63% 14 of 34 27 of 31 0 of 0 18 of 34 14 of 17 9 of 14
C.J. Vergara 19 of 48 39% 17 of 43 2 of 5 0 of 0 18 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Angelo picks Ode' Osbourne, citing his power edge, versatility, and size advantage at 125 lbs. He believes Vergara's forward pressure and boxing-heavy style will play into Osbourne's counter-striking and range control. However, he notes concern about Osbourne's recent knockout just two months ago, which may affect his chin. He also mentions that Osbourne has switched camps to Syndicate MMA and seems more focused.

Over 1.5 rounds (monkey knife fight line)
"i'm gonna go with oday here... i think he's got the power edge he's definitely the more versatile fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Big Brady picks Ode' Osbourne to win by first-round submission. He notes Osbourne's reach advantage and wrestling potential, though Osbourne hasn't used takedowns much in the UFC. He believes if Osbourne implements a wrestling-heavy game plan, he can make it look easy, but if he stands and strikes, it could be risky. Brady sees Vergara as vulnerable on the ground and expects Osbourne to get him down and submit him early.

first round submission
"I'm actually going to take osborne here uh for the win i'm going to take him to win by a first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Cody picks Vergara as a dog, citing Osbourne's history of fading after the first round. He notes Vergara's finishing ability in later rounds and durability. He suggests live betting if Osbourne slows down.

"i'll take cj vergara because you know cody's chasing a dog again"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne, citing his experience in big fights and reach advantage. He notes that Osbourne has fought on Conor McGregor cards and has been in there with tough competition. Levi acknowledges that C.J. Vergara is a talented dog with a bright future, but believes Osbourne's seasoning and the pressure of a Madison Square Garden debut favor him. He expects a close fight where Osbourne digs deep.

close decision
"give me the more season o'day osbourne in this spot"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Jacob agrees with Angelo, picking Ode' Osbourne. He highlights Osbourne's power at 125 lbs and his improved camp at Syndicate MMA. He worries about Vergara's takedowns, as Osbourne is a good grappler but not a wrestler, and could end up on his back. However, he believes Osbourne's striking advantage and the positive camp change will lead to a win.

"i agree i'm on the oday side of this but cj those takedowns worry me a little bit but i like oday all the way on this one"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

The host leans Osbourne due to his striking from the outside and sneaky choke game. He expects Osbourne to ground Vergara and look for a submission, noting Vergara's recent submission loss. He likes the under 2.5 rounds and Osbourne's submission prop at +285. He has Osbourne parlayed with something else on the card.

under 2.5 rounds (-130), Osbourne by submission (+285)
"i do lean the osborne side i do like his striking from the outside i do think it will cause carlos a ton of pr issues"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick, calling it a pass. He notes Osbourne's talent but worries about his cardio. He suggests live betting Vergara if Osbourne slows down.

"i would chalk this up as like a probably a pass"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

The Guru picks C.J. Vergara as the underdog, citing Osbourne's recent flying knee KO loss just three months prior, which he believes is too quick a turnaround. He notes Vergara's momentum from a KO win on the Contender Series and his aggressive style with powerful knees. The Guru also questions Osbourne's weight cut to flyweight and his durability, predicting Vergara will land big knees in the clinch and possibly finish with body shots.

"I'm going to take the underdog in CJ Vergara which I very much like the sound of because I don't know why he's an underdog here."
Kleydson Rodrigues - Fight History
LOSS vs Alateng Heili
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alateng Heili 0 18 of 59 30% 107 of 183 3 of 4 75% 0 0 8:16
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 37 of 88 42% 70 of 126 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alateng Heili 0 3 of 6 50% 49 of 73 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:10
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 2 of 4 50% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
2 Alateng Heili 0 8 of 25 32% 24 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:05
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 19 of 50 38% 30 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alateng Heili 0 7 of 28 25% 34 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:01
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 16 of 34 47% 31 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alateng Heili 18 of 59 30% 14 of 50 3 of 8 1 of 1 15 of 53 0 of 0 3 of 6
Kleydson Rodrigues 37 of 88 42% 15 of 55 10 of 15 12 of 18 37 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alateng Heili 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4
Kleydson Rodrigues 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alateng Heili 8 of 25 32% 6 of 19 1 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 23 0 of 0 1 of 2
Kleydson Rodrigues 19 of 50 38% 9 of 31 3 of 7 7 of 12 19 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alateng Heili 7 of 28 25% 5 of 25 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kleydson Rodrigues 16 of 34 47% 6 of 23 6 of 7 4 of 4 16 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Angelo notes that Alateng Heili struggles with forward pressure and brawlers, and can only do one thing at a time—strike or grapple. Kleydson Rodrigues brings constant forward pressure, versatile striking with kicks, and solid takedown offense from the clinch. However, Rodrigues can be overexposed and taken down. Angelo leans Rodrigues but worries if Heili decides to grapple, which could cause problems.

"I'm still leaning Clayton here CU I do like the pressure and alang doesn't love pressure"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alateng Heili

Cody sees Rodrigues as a potential fraud: he missed weight twice, has poor cardio, and his power may not translate up at bantamweight. Heili is tough, durable, and has never been finished. Cody believes Heili's wrestling defense and forward pressure will wear Rodrigues down, and he expects Heili to win a decision or possibly get a late finish.

"I can try to fade that which I'll try to do here by taking the uh the Chinese fighter at slight plus money."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Rodrigues is a former flyweight adjusting to 135 lbs but has superior striking and a BJJ black belt. He should be able to box up Alateng Heili, who over-relied on striking against Chris Gutierrez and lost. Expects Rodrigues to win on the scorecards using his striking advantage.

Line movement noted: some love on the Mongolian fighter, so waiting for better line on Rodrigues.
"I think we'll see Rodriguez utilizes Superior striking threaten enough off of his back but mainly do his best work in the Striking real and then from there he should be able to box up alang halei and win this …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alateng Heili

Paul notes Heili is durable and has never been finished in the UFC, while Rodrigues has struggled with weight cuts and cardio. He believes Heili's toughness and pressure will be a problem for Rodrigues, who may fade if he doesn't get an early finish. Paul sees value in Heili as a slight underdog.

"Alanga Le will be the pick for me as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alateng Heili

The MMA Guru picks Alateng Heili as an underdog over Kleydson Rodrigues. He believes the odds are incorrect and that Heili is a more consistent and composed fighter with good striking. He criticizes Rodrigues' losses, including a finish by Farid Basharat, and notes that Rodrigues' only UFC win is against Shannon Ross, which he dismisses as unimpressive. He also mentions Heili's takedown ability as a potential factor.

"I'm going with heli Len as the underdog here over Clayton Rodriguez I know a lot of people are picking Clayton again but you know what I'm going to do chat I'm not just gon to play the game"
LOSS vs Farid Basharat
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 4:15 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Farid Basharat 0 4 of 6 66% 25 of 36 2 of 5 40% 1 0 3:15
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 7 of 8 87% 25 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Farid Basharat 0 4 of 6 66% 25 of 36 2 of 5 40% 1 0 3:15
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 7 of 8 87% 25 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Farid Basharat 4 of 6 66% 2 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 4
Kleydson Rodrigues 7 of 8 87% 3 of 4 2 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Farid Basharat 4 of 6 66% 2 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 4
Kleydson Rodrigues 7 of 8 87% 3 of 4 2 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Farid Basharat vs. Kleydson Rodrigues
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Basharat (-325), Rodrigues (+260)

Round 1
The action continues in the bantamweight division, when undefeated London Shootfighters product Basharat (10-0, 1-0 UFC) tries to keep his pro record unblemished against former flyweight Rodrigues (8-2, 1-1 UFC). A rarity for this fight card, neither competitor is fighting for French honor and glory in this matchup. With referee Loic Pora keeping a watchful eye on the action, the two men touch gloves ahead of their scheduled melee. Basharat moves right to the center of the cage and pushes Rodrigues back, and he ignores a low kick and absorbs one to the body in rapid succession. “K.R.” wraps his foot around the head of his opponent, and Basharat responds with a speedy takedown effort. Rodrigues stifles it and attempts to take the back standing, only to jump around and try to set up an unorthodox submission maneuver. Basharat stays composed and dumps Rodrigues to his back, and he does not waste much time before passing to half guard. Rodrigues responds with a few elbows to the thigh, and Basharat pays them no mind as he steps over to full mount with little effort. Basharat stays tightly pressed to his opponent instead of setting up some offense, and he takes some of the wind out of the explosive Brazilian’s sails with this pressure. Basharat gets off some short ground-and-pound, until Rodrigues bursts out of the bad position, reverses the position and is about to put Basharat on his back. Before he can, Basharat jumps back to his feet, and the two end up in the clinch. Rodrigues sneaks in several effective strikes on the inside, but he cannot stop Basharat from tripping up one leg and placing “K.R.” on his back. Basharat again methodically looks to pass the guard, and he frustrates Rodrigues with effective blows from above. Rodrigues fights back, only to take several elbows right on the jaw.
Basharat uses shoulder pressure and smoothly sets up a kata gatame, and he steps over to the side while Rodrigues is attempting to break the grip. Basharat presses his full body weight down as he completely secures the arm-triangle choke, and there is nothing more that Rodrigues can do at this point. After a few seconds of this dire position, Rodrigues surrenders
, and Basharat keeps his unbeaten record intact with a slick performance over a dangerous opponent.

The Official Result
Farid Basharat def. Kleydson Rodrigues R1 4:15 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 26, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Angelo picks Farid Basharat but with low confidence, noting the betting lines should be closer. He says Farid is the more technically sound fighter but didn't like pressure from Damon Blackshear, and Kleydson is all pressure. If Kleydson brawls, he can win. Angelo is staying away from the -300 line.

"low confidence pick for freed... he's gonna be the pick but three to one I'm staying away from that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Big Brady picks Basharat, emphasizing his size, striking volume, and wrestling advantage. He notes Rodrigues' past weight issues and tough debut at bantamweight. He expects Basharat to use takedowns and control to win a decision, calling it a tough matchup for Rodrigues.

"I think fari basharat is just going to probably be better you know everywhere this fight goes... I like him to take down clutson Rodriguez control him and ultimately win a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Cody is high on Basharat, calling him a real prospect at 26-0. He likes his movement, striking, and improving wrestling under Jake Shields. Basharat's win over Da'Mon Blackshear is a quality victory. Rodrigues has weight issues (missed weight twice) and is moving up to 135, which will affect his takedown defense. Cody expects Basharat to pick him apart on the feet and mix in takedowns.

Basharat by decision (pick'em); Basharat over 2.5 takedowns (prize picks)
"I really like this kid... sky's the limit for him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Daniel Levi picks Farid Basharat with high confidence, having bet him at -245 earlier. He praises Basharat's footwork, jab, fight IQ, and heart, noting that he passed a tough test against Damon Blackshear. Levi believes Basharat's pace and pressure will be too much for Rodrigues, who is explosive but tends to fade and has been taken down by lesser fighters. He expects a second or third round finish, citing Basharat's ground and pound and submission defense.

Basharat wins in round 2 or 3; already bet at -245
"I like everything about Fareed and again when you beat a line by over a dollar like I already have"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

I like the chalk on Basharat. He has a slick boxing/kickboxing game and blends in takedowns well. Rodrigues is moving up in weight and has cardio issues. Basharat should establish range, get the fight to the clinch, and take advantage of Rodrigues' gas tank. I also like Basharat round three as a sprinkle. If the fight escapes the first round, Basharat should dominate later rounds.

Basharat round three
"I like the chalk on bash right if I'm being honest if you want to hedge anything here maybe Clayton round one but if this fight escapes that first round I won't have any worries on the free Bachelorette side …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Basharat by decision is basically a pick'em. He notes Rodrigues has never been finished, so a decision is likely. Paul likes Basharat over 2.5 takedowns on prize picks, expecting a takedown per round.

Basharat over 2.5 takedowns (prize picks)
"I'm with you with you through thick and thin there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Farid Basharat

The MMA Guru picks Farid Basharat, citing his win over Damon Blackshear as having aged well, and noting that Kleydson Rodrigues has losses to CJ Vergara and a win over Shannon Ross. He believes Basharat is more well-rounded and will drown Rodrigues in the second and third rounds, though he acknowledges Rodrigues could land a spinning kick early. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Basharat.

"I'm going with farrid Basher out here this is one of the easier ones on the card to call"
WIN vs Shannon Ross
TKO (punches) R1 0:59 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shannon Ross 1 14 of 22 63% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kleydson Rodrigues 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shannon Ross 1 14 of 22 63% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kleydson Rodrigues 1 of 4 25% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shannon Ross 14 of 22 63% 8 of 16 3 of 3 3 of 3 9 of 14 5 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kleydson Rodrigues 1 of 4 25% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shannon Ross 14 of 22 63% 8 of 16 3 of 3 3 of 3 9 of 14 5 of 7 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Angelo picks Kleydson Rodrigues but with low confidence, noting that Shannon Ross is a tough, hittable fighter who will apply constant pressure. He worries that Rodrigues might fold under pressure and lose a close decision, as in his previous fight. He expects Ross to headhunt for the home crowd, which could play into Rodrigues' hands.

"Clayton's going to be the pick but very low confidence spot in this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Big Brady acknowledges Ross's potential but thinks Ross is hittable and not durable. He likes Rodrigues' power and striking, predicting a second-round knockout. He notes that Ross had health issues in his last fight but still expects Rodrigues to get back on track with a finish.

second round knockout
"I do like Rodriguez here to win I do like him to win by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Cody picks Rodrigues but is wary after Rodrigues lost as a -360 favorite against CJ Vergara. He notes Rodrigues has takedown defense issues and fights to the level of his opponent. He thinks Ross has durability problems after being dropped three times by Vinicius Salvador. He considers the under on rounds or fight doesn't go to decision.

under 2.5 rounds, fight doesn't go to decision at -145
"I'm gonna side with youth here minus 320 is way too heavy of a price for me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Connor picks Rodrigues, believing in his potential and power. He notes that Ross is hittable and has durability issues, and that Rodrigues has the power to hurt him. Connor acknowledges that Rodrigues looked timid against Vergara but still threw heat all fight. He thinks Rodrigues can win via athletic cheating, possibly landing a wild kick after losing the first round.

"I'm still going to pick Rodriguez here. This is me. This is me hold the clean to hope clean to life because I think he I think the right experience and the right training and all that like it might …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Shannon Ross

Ross can replicate Vergara's game plan: crash the pocket, pressure, and grapple. Rodrigues has cardio issues when pressured and prefers kicking from distance. Ross's forward pressure and big punches should wear Rodrigues down as the fight goes on. Durability is a question for Ross, but Rodrigues isn't a heavy hitter with his hands. Ross likely wins a decision after a tough first round.

"I think Ross has some good value as an underdog in this matchup especially if he can stay conscious like I said that's a big hold up for me"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Paul picks Rodrigues but is not confident. He notes Ross's poor durability and the fact that Ross lost to Vinicius Salvador as a favorite. He thinks Rodrigues has better grappling and volume, but the -320 price is too high. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds as a potential play.

under 2.5 rounds
"I think Rodriguez wins likely inside the distance"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Kleydson Rodrigues over Shannon Ross, criticizing Ross's entry into the UFC after a loss on the contender series. He believes Rodrigues is dangerous on the feet and will find a TKO finish, possibly a head kick in the first round. He notes Ross has been submitted early in his career.

first round TKO
"I'm gonna go with Clayton Rodriguez I reckon you'll find a TKO finish as well"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shannon Ross

Zane picks Ross, citing Rodrigues' inexperience and rough style matchup. He notes that Ross is aggressive and will stay in Rodrigues' face, finding wrestling opportunities, while Rodrigues has not learned to deal with pressure and tends to fire off kicks when pressured. Zane acknowledges that Ross is not impressive but thinks Rodrigues is not ready yet.

"I just kind of take this as a Rodriguez's inexperience combined with a rough style matchup."
LOSS vs C.J. Vergara
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
C.J. Vergara 0 81 of 143 56% 93 of 156 2 of 7 28% 1 2 3:14
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 71 of 127 55% 155 of 221 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 C.J. Vergara 0 48 of 88 54% 52 of 92 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:54
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 27 of 51 52% 54 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 C.J. Vergara 0 13 of 17 76% 20 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:09
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 26 of 39 66% 65 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:58
3 C.J. Vergara 0 20 of 38 52% 21 of 40 1 of 3 33% 1 1 2:11
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 18 of 37 48% 36 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
C.J. Vergara 81 of 143 56% 39 of 91 32 of 40 10 of 12 70 of 131 6 of 7 5 of 5
Kleydson Rodrigues 71 of 127 55% 42 of 89 18 of 25 11 of 13 45 of 92 7 of 10 19 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 C.J. Vergara 48 of 88 54% 20 of 52 18 of 24 10 of 12 44 of 84 4 of 4 0 of 0
Kleydson Rodrigues 27 of 51 52% 12 of 31 8 of 11 7 of 9 25 of 48 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 C.J. Vergara 13 of 17 76% 8 of 11 5 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 13 1 of 1 3 of 3
Kleydson Rodrigues 26 of 39 66% 21 of 32 3 of 5 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 18 of 24
3 C.J. Vergara 20 of 38 52% 11 of 28 9 of 10 0 of 0 17 of 34 1 of 2 2 of 2
Kleydson Rodrigues 18 of 37 48% 9 of 26 7 of 9 2 of 2 13 of 30 4 of 6 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Angelo picks C.J. Vergara despite the bookies favoring Kleydson Rodrigues. He believes Vergara can get inside Rodrigues' looping punches and beat him to the punch. He notes that Vergara is a beast in the clinch but worries about Rodrigues' takedowns from the clinch. He references Vergara's striking output in his UFC debut.

"I think cj can get inside of them and literally beat clayton to the punch"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Kleydson Rodrigues to win by decision. He is impressed by Rodrigues' striking volume, mixing kicks to the legs, body, and head. Vergara is tough and had a close fight with Ode Osbourne, but Rodrigues is a much tougher matchup on the feet. Rodrigues has good get-up game if taken down. Brady thinks Rodrigues has more tools and will outwork Vergara over three rounds, though the -280 price is steep. He expects a decision win for Rodrigues.

decision
"I like clinton rodriguez here quite a bit ... I like rodriguez here and I like him quite a bit and I'm excited to see him make his debut"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Cody picks Kleydson Rodrigues, calling him a promising prospect with excellent technique. He notes Rodrigues' knees, elbows, and cardio, and that he improves as the fight goes on. Cody contrasts Vergara's straight-line movement and poor footwork. He believes Rodrigues will outwork Vergara and likely win a decision.

"i would think i'm leaning towards decision for clayton rodriguez"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Daniel Levi picks Kleydson Rodrigues confidently, though he does not bet due to the high price. He likes Rodrigues' athleticism, kicks, and takedown defense, and thinks he has a much higher ceiling than Vergara. He acknowledges Vergara's toughness and cardio but expects Rodrigues to win. He does not bet at -350.

Daniel does not bet this fight. He mentions possibly putting Rodrigues in a parlay but does not.
"My pick is Clayton. I think he's got the much higher ceiling. I think he's the much more potential. But CJ, he's got that spirit about him. So it's gonna be a good fight but give me Clayton to get …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

The host is very high on Kleydson Rodrigues, calling him a future top 5-7 flyweight. He praises his striking and jiu-jitsu, though notes cardio is questionable. He dismisses C.J. Vergara as a solid striker but not UFC caliber, pointing to Vergara's close decisions and draws on the regional scene. He expects Rodrigues to win via decision, as Vergara is durable. He might include Rodrigues in a parlay.

"clayton i think this guy is the [ __ ] i think he truly has the potential to be a top five to seven guy in this division"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Paul picks Kleydson Rodrigues, impressed by his defensive capabilities and well-rounded game. He notes that Rodrigues barely got hit on the Contender Series and has good striking defense. Paul believes Vergara is limited, throwing looping left hooks, and that Rodrigues will cover the price tag. He acknowledges the debut nerves but is confident.

"i'm picking clayton to win in this spot i do think that he's uh he's a real decent uh prospect coming up into this division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Kleydson Rodrigues, praising his unorthodox style and power. He believes Rodrigues' movement and kicks will keep Vergara guessing, and that Vergara may become overwhelmed. He predicts Rodrigues will win the first two rounds, possibly scoring a knockdown, and win 29-28. He notes Rodrigues is a big, powerful flyweight at 26 years old.

Rodrigues 29-28
"i'm gonna go i've played some rodriguez 29-28 winning the first two rounds on his unorthodoxy and his power"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Angelo picks C.J. Vergara despite the bookies favoring Kleydson Rodrigues. He believes Vergara can get inside Rodrigues' looping punches and beat him to the punch. He notes that Vergara is a beast in the clinch but worries about Rodrigues' takedowns from the clinch. He references Vergara's striking output in his UFC debut.

"I think cj can get inside of them and literally beat clayton to the punch"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Kleydson Rodrigues to win by decision. He is impressed by Rodrigues' striking volume, mixing kicks to the legs, body, and head. Vergara is tough and had a close fight with Ode Osbourne, but Rodrigues is a much tougher matchup on the feet. Rodrigues has good get-up game if taken down. Brady thinks Rodrigues has more tools and will outwork Vergara over three rounds, though the -280 price is steep. He expects a decision win for Rodrigues.

decision
"I like clinton rodriguez here quite a bit ... I like rodriguez here and I like him quite a bit and I'm excited to see him make his debut"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Cody picks Kleydson Rodrigues, calling him a promising prospect with excellent technique. He notes Rodrigues' knees, elbows, and cardio, and that he improves as the fight goes on. Cody contrasts Vergara's straight-line movement and poor footwork. He believes Rodrigues will outwork Vergara and likely win a decision.

"i would think i'm leaning towards decision for clayton rodriguez"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Daniel Levi picks Kleydson Rodrigues confidently, though he does not bet due to the high price. He likes Rodrigues' athleticism, kicks, and takedown defense, and thinks he has a much higher ceiling than Vergara. He acknowledges Vergara's toughness and cardio but expects Rodrigues to win. He does not bet at -350.

Daniel does not bet this fight. He mentions possibly putting Rodrigues in a parlay but does not.
"My pick is Clayton. I think he's got the much higher ceiling. I think he's the much more potential. But CJ, he's got that spirit about him. So it's gonna be a good fight but give me Clayton to get it done no bet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

The host is very high on Kleydson Rodrigues, calling him a future top 5-7 flyweight. He praises his striking and jiu-jitsu, though notes cardio is questionable. He dismisses C.J. Vergara as a solid striker but not UFC caliber, pointing to Vergara's close decisions and draws on the regional scene. He expects Rodrigues to win via decision, as Vergara is durable. He might include Rodrigues in a parlay.

"clayton i think this guy is the [ __ ] i think he truly has the potential to be a top five to seven guy in this division"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Paul picks Kleydson Rodrigues, impressed by his defensive capabilities and well-rounded game. He notes that Rodrigues barely got hit on the Contender Series and has good striking defense. Paul believes Vergara is limited, throwing looping left hooks, and that Rodrigues will cover the price tag. He acknowledges the debut nerves but is confident.

"i'm picking clayton to win in this spot i do think that he's uh he's a real decent uh prospect coming up into this division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Kleydson Rodrigues, praising his unorthodox style and power. He believes Rodrigues' movement and kicks will keep Vergara guessing, and that Vergara may become overwhelmed. He predicts Rodrigues will win the first two rounds, possibly scoring a knockdown, and win 29-28. He notes Rodrigues is a big, powerful flyweight at 26 years old.

Rodrigues 29-28
"i'm gonna go i've played some rodriguez 29-28 winning the first two rounds on his unorthodoxy and his power"