vs
-250 +220
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022 · Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 9"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 36
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Brandon Royval
5.54 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
4.25 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
0.65 TD Avg
75.0% TD Acc.
45.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Matt Schnell
4.07 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
4.11 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.6 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
43.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Brandon Royval
Moneyline
BetWay -250
KO/TKO
FanDuel +420
Submission
FanDuel +155
Decision
FanDuel +380
Matt Schnell
Moneyline
FanDuel +220
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1000
Submission
FanDuel +900
Decision
FanDuel +460
Brandon Royval - Fight History
SCHED vs Lone'er Kavanagh
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
LOSS vs Manel Kape
KO R1 3:18 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 0 17 of 26 65% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Manel Kape 1 17 of 23 73% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 0 17 of 26 65% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Manel Kape 1 17 of 23 73% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 17 of 26 65% 5 of 10 6 of 8 6 of 8 17 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manel Kape 17 of 23 73% 6 of 10 5 of 6 6 of 7 15 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 17 of 26 65% 5 of 10 6 of 8 6 of 8 17 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manel Kape 17 of 23 73% 6 of 10 5 of 6 6 of 7 15 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-300); Royval (+240)

Round 1
This main event is a flyweight tilt many have circled on the calendar the day it was announced. Always in a wild scrap, Royval (17-8, 7-4 UFC) has reached all but the pinnacle of his division as bounces around the top five. After some delays and scrubbed pairings, he finally gets to take on the brick-fisted Kape (21-7, 6-3 UFC). The talk is over, the prep is finished, and it’s time for some action. Referee Herb Dean ushers the two to the center of the Octagon to issue final instructions and elicit a glove touch, which is heard and answered by the athletes. It’s on with the show, this being the final UFC bout on ESPN (unless they sign back with ESPN in 2033).
Kape marches Royval down immediately lobbing a hard calf kick at him to greet him. Royval answers him back. Violent pleasantries exchanged, the two get to it for real. Royval lands a side kick to the ribs, and Kape keeps targeting the lead leg. Royval answers in kind, and swipes out with a right hand on the way back. Kape chips at the front wheel once more with his low kick, and Royval makes sure to pay him back immediately. Royval lets rip a body kick that lands with a loud slap, and he kicks with the other leg which makes a thumping sound instead. Royval punches his way into a low kick combination, and he tags Kape upstairs to interrupt a combo. Another hefty body kick from “Raw Dawg” lands flush, who then targets the calf. Kape swings himself off-balance with a big kick, gathering himself in time to dodge a kick flying at his face.
Royval tosses up a high kick, and Kape rushes him. Something appears to bother Kape, who has to suddenly back off and put his hand on the fence. Oddly enough, the same thing happens to Royval, who looks to have jammed his toes on a kick. Kape walks him down and blasts him in the face with a ferocious right hand that puts him down for the count. “Starboy” unleashes a final barrage of fists while Royval tries to sit up and recover, knocking the Factory X fighter clean out and then switching him back online again. Dean sees when Royval goes limp a second time, and he intervenes. Royval is trying to stand at the time, but he is on wobbled legs and thinks to protest but decides against it. Cooler heads bring him over to his corner so that he can sit down and talk to his team now that the fight is over, and Kape hurries over to talk to someone seated outside of the cage. Ending the ESPN era with one destructive flurry, Kape ties the UFC flyweight record for the most knockouts in divisional history, tying Joe Benavidez with five.
The triumphant Kape challenges new flyweight king Joshua Van for his belt, claiming that he will, and we can’t make this up, “take his diapers.” Sometimes these things happen in MMA. With this 12-fight show in the books, the ESPN era of the UFC is now complete. With the winter break upcoming, there will be a whopping six weeks until the next UFC card on Jan. 24, a gap with no events not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic shut the sport down for a few months in 2020. There will be a few more major fight cards in 2025, with PFL Africa next week and Rizin’s NYE spectacular coming up soon. We will be there for them, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Brandon Royval R1 3:18 via KO (Punches)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Cody picks Royval as a plus money underdog, citing his infinite cardio, pressure, and volume. He believes Royval's improved striking and grappling will allow him to outwork Kape over five rounds, especially in deeper waters. He notes Kape's power but thinks Royval's chin can hold up and that Royval will win a close decision by outlanding him in significant strikes.

"I am going to chase that plus money on Brandon Royval. It's a five-round fight. And again, as far as I'm concerned, Brandon Royval is built for these 25-minute long fights."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Lucrative James picks Manel Kape confidently, arguing that Brandon Royval's aggressive, pressure-heavy style plays into Kape's hands. He notes Kape's superior boxing, timing, and power, and believes Kape will hurt Royval multiple times, though a knockout is uncertain given Royval's durability. He projects Kape as a -250 favorite.

"I'm going to pick Manel Cape in this fight. I'm going to pick Minnel Cape fairly confidently in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Paul agrees with Cody, also taking Royval at plus 250. He highlights the Felipe dos Santos fight as evidence that Kape can be pushed in a striking battle, and doubts Kape can maintain high volume for 25 minutes. He sees Royval's durability and output as key factors.

"It's Brandon Royval plus 250 for me as well."
LOSS vs Joshua Van
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 0 215 of 467 46% 216 of 468 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joshua Van 1 204 of 305 66% 209 of 311 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 0 42 of 116 36% 42 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joshua Van 0 52 of 79 65% 52 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brandon Royval 0 87 of 174 50% 87 of 174 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joshua Van 0 74 of 106 69% 77 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brandon Royval 0 86 of 177 48% 87 of 178 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joshua Van 1 78 of 120 65% 80 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 215 of 467 46% 179 of 422 22 of 27 14 of 18 205 of 451 10 of 16 0 of 0
Joshua Van 204 of 305 66% 138 of 232 37 of 43 29 of 30 181 of 270 20 of 27 3 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 42 of 116 36% 27 of 95 6 of 10 9 of 11 41 of 114 1 of 2 0 of 0
Joshua Van 52 of 79 65% 31 of 55 9 of 12 12 of 12 46 of 71 6 of 8 0 of 0
2 Brandon Royval 87 of 174 50% 77 of 163 7 of 7 3 of 4 81 of 165 6 of 9 0 of 0
Joshua Van 74 of 106 69% 50 of 81 18 of 19 6 of 6 65 of 95 9 of 11 0 of 0
3 Brandon Royval 86 of 177 48% 75 of 164 9 of 10 2 of 3 83 of 172 3 of 5 0 of 0
Joshua Van 78 of 120 65% 57 of 96 10 of 12 11 of 12 70 of 104 5 of 8 3 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-120), Royval (+100)

Round 1
In the “featured fight of the night,” flyweights roll the dice to see who may get the next crack at the champ. As it turns out, this de facto tournament will be resolved one bout later, when Alexandre Pantoja rematches Kai Kara-France for the throne. Having come up short in 2023, and already 0-2 against the champ Pantoja, Royval (17-7, 7-3 UFC) more than likely hopes there will be change in beltholder in about an hour. Looking to spoil the party of “Raw Dawg” will be the fast-rising 23-year-old Van (14-2, 7-1 UFC), who has shot up the ranks like a cannon and takes this bout on short notice. Despite that, Van is the betting favorite. Referee Jason Herzog will keep things on the up-and-up, although they kick off with a sporting fist bump.
Royval probes with his jab and sets up an early low kick. He digs a kick to the ribcage and goes back low to the calf on either side. Royval uses his reach to keep the younger man at bay, chipping away at him from a safe distance. For the first minute, Van is doing nothing more than taking potshots. Royval goes to the body again with his toes extended, and he rushes forward into the awaiting right hand from the 23-year-old. Van catches Royval twice more with his big right hand, and Royval shrugs them off and continues doing work from the outside. Royval splits the guard with jab after unanswered jab, moving and evading to not let Van get to him. Van misses on a right hand, and Royval clips him with his own short right hook. Van strikes the body with a right, and Royval reaches his target with jabs and a short check hook.
Van lands multiple blistering right hands, hitting “Raw Dawg” much harder than Royval has struck him yet. Royval goes to the body with a kick as he skirts away, and Van reaches him with a right. Van knocks Royval to his seat, although Royval stumbled on the way out. He bounces back to his feet, and Van is ready to crack him with another heavy right. Any time Royval closes the distance, Van has a right hand awaiting him. Van gets Royval’s attention twice, and Royval knees him hard in the chest. Van knocks Royval back a step with two powerful right hands on the cheek, and a third connects when Royval puts hands on him. Royval gets up close and personal, and although he delivers a single knee, Van rips the midsection with several fast fists. The strikes have marked up Royval’s nose, who does not appear concerned after getting hit hard. He potshots Van a few more times until the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Van
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 2
The fighters tap gloves before engaging, and Royval gets right back to his high-volume, low-power approach. He jams Van in the sternum with a smattering of knees before backing off, where he takes a right hand on the way out. The two swing at one another, forming a cloud of feet and fists reminiscent of an Andy Capp comic. Van drills Royval at the end of two right hands, only to eat a sharp knee on the jaw. Royval drives him back with a flurry, and his body kick allows him to get in and swing a left. Royval stings Van with a straight left, and Van comes over the top with a right. Van gets off a clubbing right in the midst of Royval’s jab-a-palooza, and he absorbs a low kick and two powerful uppercuts. Royval plants a one-two on the chin to shake up the youngster from Myanmar, and he opens up with several more punches. Van stands in the pocket and bangs with him, with Royval getting knocked back and needing to reset, his nose leaking.
Royval starts putting more behind his punches, and Van is still hurling with power. The stats are racking up fast, and Van’s right hand is a weapon that seemingly cannot miss. Van drives a knee to the chest and follows with an overhand right, and Royval rifles off a number of piston-like jabs. Van misses with his right, and Royval works him with three speedy punches. Royval’s right cheek shows damage, and he gets stood up in a combo. Royval lets jab after jab land on the nose, and he follows with long, straight left hands. Van attacks the body, and just when he is about to gain momentum, Royval is on him with a powerful salvo. They continue to unload into one another’s faces, stealing the hearts of the crowd. Royval walks straight through a hard combination, fires back and gets staggered ever-so briefly. Royval goes to the body, and they swing it out to the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Royval

Round 3
The flyweights tap gloves, and it takes nary a second for Royval to get behind his jab. He sways to avoid the worst of a right hand and fires back with a one-two. Van connects with a quick left hook, shaking Royval up with two more punches but eating a few on the way out. Van reaches out with a right hand, and he allows Royval to close in so he can smash him in the temple with his overhand right. Royval surges forward behind long arms, ignoring a few body shots to put his fists on Van’s face. Van cracks him with a huge right hand, and Royval just smiles. Royval drops a body kick on his foe, and they take a moment to compose themselves before going for broke again. Van lands a one-two, and Royval pays him right back with a knee up the middle and a few fiery fists back. Van gets in tight for a second to land body shots, and Royval disengages.
Royval drives four punches him, and Van drills him with a right hand that surprises Royval. The Factory x fighter takes a hard leg kick and goes to the body with his shin. The two brawl it out, and Royval may be bloody in the nose but he is not slowing down. Van digs a kick to the body, and Royval reaches him with a left. Van pays him back with a combo, and Royval gets in his face with a flurry. Royval goes to the body with a kick, and Van counters him up top. Royval strings together a three-punch combo, and he darts away before Van reaches him. Van stumbles his opponent with his power right, and he knees Royval in the nose. Royval checks a kick and crashes the pocket with an uppercut and several more punches. Van kicks Royval’s leg out, and he swings a right hand over the top. He catches Royval on the way in with a left, and Royval is not about to let him off the hook. With 15 seconds to go, the two batter and smash one another. Van knocks “Raw Dawg” to the mat in an insane exchange, following the former title challenger down to the mat and hammering him until time expires. What an incredible fight! Royval was hurt but made it to the end, and a new challenger has emerged. The flyweights delivered easily one of the best fights of the year, giving it everything they had and more. If only this one had two more rounds...in victory, Van proudly declares that whomever wins the title in the next match will have to go through him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)

The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Brandon Royval via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Angelo picks Brandon Royval because he believes Royval is still in his prime and will be the best fighter Joshua Van has ever faced. He notes that Van's UFC record is loaded with wrestlers and lower-level guys, and the last time Van fought a predominant striker, he was finished in the third round. He placed a bet on Royval weeks ago and is confident in the pick.

Angelo says he placed a bet on Royval a few weeks ago.
"I think Royval wins here. I've got a bet on Royval, and I placed that bet a few weeks ago."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Big Brady believes Royval is underrated, citing his wins over top competition like Taira, Moreno, and Nicolau. He notes Van has durability concerns, having been knocked out by Charles Johnson and hurt by Edgar Chairez. Brady thinks Royval's experience, cardio, and grappling advantage will be key, and predicts Royval will hurt Van, who will then shoot for a takedown and get submitted. He picks Royval by second-round submission.

Royval wins by second round submission
"I'll go Brandon Roy Val. Brandon Royal by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Connor initially wanted to pick Van but was convinced by Phil that Royval's style is a bad matchup for Van. He notes that Royval has become a long-range volume fighter who can frustrate opponents, and Van has struggled against tall, rangy fighters. He also mentions Royval's durability and pace as factors. However, he is not fully confident because Royval's style is not championship-level and he gives away a lot.

"I think I'm going to go with Rival and just say that the quick turnaround is going to be too much for van and that the, that Rival can put out pace round after round and at a range that …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joshua Van

The host acknowledges Royval's unorthodox striking may cause early trouble, but expects Van to land big shots in the second and third rounds, possibly getting a late TKO, but ultimately winning on the scorecards in the biggest win of his career.

win on scorecards, possible late TKO
"I expect Van to eventually touch up Brandon Roy Val, land those big shots, especially in the second and third round, maybe find a TKO late, but I think the 23-year-old ends up going on to win this fight on …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joshua Van

The host picks Joshua Van, praising his boxing, head movement, and body work. He notes that Royval's volume often lacks sting and that Van's activity and recent form are advantages. He predicts Van will win a decision, taking the first two rounds, while Royval may take the third.

decision
"I'm going to go with Joshua Van. I think his boxing would be great. I think he can find the body very well here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Zane is also leaning towards Royval after being convinced by Phil. He notes that Royval's leaf-blower style at range could be problematic for Van, who has struggled against fighters who keep him at distance. He also mentions that Royval is durable and has a high pace. However, he is not confident because Royval's style is not impressive and Van could potentially overwhelm him if he gets inside.

"I kind of have just sold you on this, the way Phil sold me, because I was also thinking like, yeah, I'm like you, I'm not super impressed by Rival's game, but on reflection, he may in fact, be one …"
WIN vs Tatsuro Taira
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 0 124 of 232 53% 172 of 287 3 of 3 100% 3 2 2:23
Tatsuro Taira 0 42 of 99 42% 80 of 143 6 of 15 40% 1 0 12:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 0 17 of 55 30% 17 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tatsuro Taira 0 10 of 22 45% 11 of 24 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:44
2 Brandon Royval 0 3 of 14 21% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tatsuro Taira 0 5 of 7 71% 29 of 34 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:10
3 Brandon Royval 0 56 of 78 71% 81 of 105 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:57
Tatsuro Taira 0 5 of 21 23% 7 of 23 0 of 4 0% 1 0 1:45
4 Brandon Royval 0 5 of 11 45% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tatsuro Taira 0 8 of 13 61% 18 of 25 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:29
5 Brandon Royval 0 43 of 74 58% 57 of 93 1 of 1 100% 2 2 1:26
Tatsuro Taira 0 14 of 36 38% 15 of 37 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 124 of 232 53% 114 of 216 10 of 16 0 of 0 97 of 203 11 of 12 16 of 17
Tatsuro Taira 42 of 99 42% 34 of 91 5 of 5 3 of 3 38 of 93 0 of 1 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 17 of 55 30% 12 of 46 5 of 9 0 of 0 16 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tatsuro Taira 10 of 22 45% 6 of 18 2 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brandon Royval 3 of 14 21% 1 of 11 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tatsuro Taira 5 of 7 71% 4 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Brandon Royval 56 of 78 71% 54 of 76 2 of 2 0 of 0 32 of 52 9 of 10 15 of 16
Tatsuro Taira 5 of 21 23% 5 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Brandon Royval 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tatsuro Taira 8 of 13 61% 7 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 4
5 Brandon Royval 43 of 74 58% 43 of 73 0 of 1 0 of 0 41 of 72 1 of 1 1 of 1
Tatsuro Taira 14 of 36 38% 12 of 34 2 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brandon Royval vs. Tatsuro Taira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-225), Royval (+185)

Round 1
The UFC has chosen well with this all-action flyweight scrap capping off the fight card. Fresh off a revenge win over Brandon Moreno, Royval (16-7, 6-3 UFC) is energized and fully capable of playing spoiler. Taira (16-0, 6-0 UFC) has yet to taste defeat, and his performances continue to dazzle as he works his way up the 125-pound ladder. The two are brought to the middle of the cage by referee Jason Herzog for final instructions, and they gladly bump fists before madness ensues. It’s on with the show. Royval hops in and out searching for an early jab, and he pitches out a high kick to further gauge his range. Royval has another head kick miss, and Taira tests his mettle with a light low kick. Royval connects with a body kick, and Taira changes levels on him. Royval defends with a guillotine choke, and he breaks free of the attempt with his back bouncing off the wall. Royval walks through a right hand to get off his own, and his subsequent head kick efforts continue missing. A straight left from Royval reddens the Japanese fighter’s nose, and he catches Taira coming in with another left hand. Royval kicks the body and spins around, with Taira getting off a right hand. Royval scores another body kick that does not get caught, and he snaps out a one-two to get Taira’s attention. Royval clubs his foe with a left hand, and he gets off another in short order before dancing away to a safe distance. Royval measures and clubs Taira once more with a left, having found its range with it and a body kick. Taira bends over and gets his hair buzzed with a back fist. Two more body kicks from Royval get through, and his jab splits the guard. Taira walks into a pair of punches, and he makes Royval stumble with a short combo and grabs hold of Royval from behind to drag him to the floor. Royval attacks a kneebar as soon as he hits a mat, and he transitions into a heel hook and tugs on it from the other side for an inverted variety. Taira turns but cannot get out of the leg danger, as Royval commits to it by rolling over. Taira slithers away from the submission, and Royval breaks free and darts after him with long punches before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval

Round 2
Royval is right in the center of the cage ready to pick up where he left off, and his long punches lead to a step-in knee. Taira threatens with a double, scooping Royval up and pushing off the fence to drag Royval down and take his back. Taira flattens Royval out for a moment, but Royval is a scrambler and he keeps moving any direction he can. Taira secures the body triangle to stifle the former title challenger’s escape attempts, and he slides over to take mount before stretching Royval out further. Royval scoots his way to put the wall behind him, with Taira sitting up and the leg grip still around his waist. Royval hand-fights to defend from a submission, and Taira looks to isolate a choke. Royval rolls over, turning twice until he grabs hold of Taira’s knee to spin him around. Taira further maintains control from behind, with Royval’s efforts in vain. Royval is warned for grabbing the inside of the glove, and Taira sells out for a rear-naked choke. Taira turns to the other side to further sneak it in, and Royval is able to stop these attempts for the time being. Royval sits back down with Taira holding an unorthodox grip around his shoulder, and he uses it to put Royval on his back and reassume mount. Royval spins around to escape the first bad position, and Taira deftly slides through to get his back and shut Royval down by getting in half guard. Royval attacks a leglock, forcing Taira to stand up and pull his leg away. Royval works back to his feet in the waning seconds, and one body kick is all he gets off before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira

Round 3
Fists are bumped to get going, and a more tentative Royval gets countered over the top with a left hand. Taira reaches him with another left hook over the top, and Royval slugs him in the chops with a right hand. A straight left from Royval finds its home on the jaw, and he lands another few punches and a knee when Taira shoots for a takedown. Royval defends the double with several elbows to the side of the head, and he stands Taira up with a sharp knee. Royval breaks out of the attempt and goes wild with a flurry of strikes, shaking Taira up briefly. Taira’s recoverability is excellent, as he does not back up and instead stays just out of range. Royval bears down on him with a long left and an uppercut, and his uppercut clips Taira again when Taira tries to strike back. Royval gets energized by landing flush, hurting Taira with a flurry of fists. Taira shoots desperately for a takedown when he gets hurt with a salvo from “Raw Dawg.” Taira’s takedown is used against him, as Royval throws him to the mat and works on him with hammerfists. Royval thwarts another attempt, and Taira is fading fast as the woodchipper in Royval is on him chewing him up with punches and knees. Taira goes after another takedown, and it is not effective as he ducks face-first into a clean knee. Taira drops to the mat, and Royval follows him and beats on him with hammerfists on either side of the head. Taira tries to move, and Royval circles around to take Taira’s back and get hooks in. Royval searches for an armbar, rolling to his bell to lock it down, and Taira miraculously fights his way out of the sub and turns Royval around to get his back. Taira fastens the body triangle and starts hunting for his own submission. A rear-naked choke from the Japanese youngster sneaks around the jaw of his foe, and Royval decides to punch instead of fighting the hands. Royval grits it out and survives to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval

Round 4
Royval is fired up after his corner very loudly and dramatically informs him that he needs to crush this kid. Taira is not about to go down lightly, and the two flyweights meet in the center of the cage and trade hands violently. When Taira gets stung, he shoots in for a takedown. Royval balances thanks in part to a fence grab, although Taira still wrests him to the mat. Taira gets his hooks in and locks down the body triangle, with Royval pulling off the fence to try to spin himself about. Taira hunts for a choke, and Royval fights the body lock and turns to his knees. Taira’s body lock remains firmly around the midsection even sitting upright, and Royval rolls but is still snared in the web. Taira softens him up from behind with punches as Royval keeps turning, and he lands an elbow as he moves from position to position. When absorbing one particularly fierce elbow, Royval turns to his stomach, and he uses two-on-one control to wriggle himself out. Taira’s savvy back control further nullifies “Raw Dawg,” and he lets Royval roll to his back to get the body triangle again. Royval fights it off on one side, but Taira fastens it on the other. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Royval sits up and is near to escape, but time expires before he can. It could be all tied up now.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira

Round 5
With five minutes left in the fight very likely even on the scorecards, Royval strikes first in the final round. Connecting with four or five early punches, Royval is forced to sprawl to stop a level change. Taira walks into a few punches after Royval stands up, and he reaches with a right but gets clubbed with an uppercut. Royval reaches out with a left hand, and he snipes Taira coming in with a few punches. Royval eats a pair of lefts to get driven back, and he slips in an uppercut. Taira swings a right hand into a takedown, and he puts Royval on his seat with three and a half minutes left in the round. Taira moves to north-south position with Royval pushing his heels off the fence to flip around. Taira nearly gets the back, but Royval reverses the position and pursues his own takedown to place Taira on his seat. Royval holds on from behind as Taira stands, and he elevates and slams the Japanese fighter down. Royval jumps on the back as Taira gets to his feet again, and slides off in a hurry. Taira breaks the grip and separates, and Royval walks him down and bloodies his foe’s nose. Taira loads up on power strikes, and Royval’s straight left remains a money punch. Royval seems to land cleanly whenever he wishes, and Taira dives after a desperate single but Royval stops it and knees his foe in the chest. Royval breaks free again and rails Taira with a step-in knee, and Taira knocks him back with a big right hand. Royval gets back in his face with a series of punches, and he gets pushed over when spinning back. Taira shoots for a double, and Royval jumps guard with a guillotine choke that he uses to roll into full mount. Royval sits up and lets Taira turn over to take his back, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke. Royval gets the body triangle at the same time, and he cranks on the neck. The neck crank does not get a tap, and tough as nails Taira survives to turn himself over. The final horn blares, and this back-and-forth battle comes to a close in an easy “Fight of the Night” candidate and one possibly worthy of “Fight of the Year” consideration. No matter who picks up the win, these two put on a show and stamp their places in the elite echelon of the 125-pound division.
Springing the upset, Royval showers his defeated opponent with compliments, while saying that he would be happy to do anything to further Taira’s career—a fighter that he confidently proclaims will be a champion one day. Royval states he alone deserves the next title shot at flyweight, due to wins over top-five talents Brandon Moreno, Kai Kara-France and now Taira. He asks to be backup for the Alexandre Pantoja-Kai Asakura championship bout, or offers to fight in hostile territory to beat either man in their home country after UFC 310. If he gets the next crack at gold, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)

The Official Result
Brandon Royval def. Tatsuro Taira via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Angelo picks Brandon Royval, calling himself a Tatsuro Taira hater. He notes that Taira is undefeated but hasn't beaten top competition, and that Royval's pressure and experience will be too much. He mentions Royval's win over Brandon Moreno and his ability to land strikes even when taken down. Angelo bet half a unit on Royval at +170 and is also considering a plus 5.5 bet.

Bet half a unit at +170; considering plus 5.5 bet
"I think Brandon Royal wins this fight I bet on him plus 170 those odds were just too good to pass up."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Big Brady picks Tatsuro Taira to win by decision. He notes that if it were a three-round fight, he'd be more confident, but the five rounds give him pause due to Royval's elite cardio and durability. However, Royval has terrible takedown defense (40%), and Taira's grappling control is elite. He compares it to Royval's fight with Pantoja, where Pantoja controlled him on the ground. Brady believes Taira can get takedowns at will and control rounds, though rounds 4-5 could get interesting. He expects Taira to win at least three rounds.

Taira by decision
"I'll go Tyra to win this fight and I'll take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2025 (fight day)
Tatsuro Taira

Cody believes Taira is a believer after his performance against Royval, showing improved striking, timing, physicality, and elite grappling. He notes Taira's ability to take down Royval six times and control him, despite Royval's scrambling and cardio. Cody sees Taira as more polished and refined than Park, with five-round experience and superior competition level. He expects Taira to roll through Park.

"I'm starting to become a Tyro believer and you know me, I've tried to fade this guy a few times."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Royval's defensive wrestling is nonexistent and that Taira's grappling is a huge advantage. He notes that Royval's recent striking approach is static and ineffective, and that Taira should be able to take him down and control the fight. Connor is confident Taira wins unless he fights poorly.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I think of royville's fight with kykara france... If you're facing tatsuru taira you're not going to jump the ghillie and submit tatsuru taira."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Daniel acknowledges Taira's immense talent and undefeated record but questions if he's ready for a top-five test at age 24. He notes Royval's proven durability, pace, and experience against elite competition like Moreno and Pantoja. Daniel is tempted by the plus-190 odds on Royval and believes Taira may need to pay his dues first. He emphasizes that Royval gets better as fights progress and that Taira hasn't faced anyone with Royval's relentless pressure.

"I'm just not convinced he's that guy right now... I'm more tempted to take a small shot on Brandon Royval and see if he can set back the ultra talented Tatsuro Taira."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

The host looked for a reason to take Royval as a big underdog but couldn't due to Taira's control and grappling. Royval is more disciplined but will struggle when Taira crashes the pocket and wraps him up. The host is not super high on Taira's chalk and prefers the over 3.5 rounds, but expects Taira to control the majority of the fight via grappling and win on the scorecards.

over 3.5 rounds
"I actually like the over three and a half more than anything but I think we're going to see Taira controlling the majority of this matchup by getting it into the grappling realm"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2025 (fight day)
Tatsuro Taira

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Taira's striking improvement and elite grappling. He highlights Taira's ability to get to the back and control opponents, and his five-round experience against top competition. Paul thinks Taira wins more often than not even at a sizable favorite price.

"I expect him to roll through park."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

The MMA Guru picks Brandon Royval as an upset, citing his scrambling ability, pressure, and durability. He questions Taira's hype, noting close fights with Perez and Shevchenko, and believes Royval can make Taira break in a five-round fight. He expects Royval to win by late-round TKO, as Taira hasn't faced someone as lanky and rangy, and Royval has shown he can hang with top flyweights like Pantoja and Moreno.

late rounds TKO
"I am going to go Roy Val... I think he can make tayra break I think he can put pressure on him... I'm going to say Roy Val gets this one done by like late rounds TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Zane picks Taira because Royval's defensive wrestling is terrible and Taira is a good takedown artist with dangerous ground control. He notes that Royval's striking volume is often ineffective and that Taira can find takedowns consistently. Zane believes Royval's only path is if Taira fights terribly, but otherwise Taira should win.

Royval opened at +170, now +213; Taira opened at -194, now -248. Odds drifting Taira's way.
"I am going to be picking tatsura taira. I think he is going to have all kinds of ways of finding takedowns on royville and it's just really is a question of if he goes for them consistently and I …"
Decision (split) (48–47, 46–49, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 0 112 of 211 53% 119 of 219 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:54
Brandon Moreno 0 145 of 510 28% 177 of 556 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 0 15 of 23 65% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brandon Moreno 0 12 of 43 27% 12 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brandon Royval 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:37
Brandon Moreno 0 18 of 87 20% 22 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brandon Royval 0 17 of 31 54% 17 of 31 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:27
Brandon Moreno 0 25 of 79 31% 26 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Brandon Royval 0 29 of 58 50% 29 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Brandon Moreno 0 49 of 161 30% 60 of 179 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:33
5 Brandon Royval 0 29 of 54 53% 36 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:50
Brandon Moreno 0 41 of 140 29% 57 of 162 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 112 of 211 53% 48 of 127 37 of 51 27 of 33 103 of 191 7 of 17 2 of 3
Brandon Moreno 145 of 510 28% 97 of 437 38 of 54 10 of 19 142 of 504 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 15 of 23 65% 6 of 12 5 of 5 4 of 6 14 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0
Brandon Moreno 12 of 43 27% 6 of 31 5 of 8 1 of 4 11 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Brandon Royval 22 of 45 48% 13 of 34 5 of 5 4 of 6 20 of 43 1 of 1 1 of 1
Brandon Moreno 18 of 87 20% 7 of 66 8 of 16 3 of 5 18 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Brandon Royval 17 of 31 54% 7 of 20 4 of 5 6 of 6 15 of 27 1 of 2 1 of 2
Brandon Moreno 25 of 79 31% 13 of 61 8 of 12 4 of 6 24 of 76 1 of 3 0 of 0
4 Brandon Royval 29 of 58 50% 7 of 27 13 of 20 9 of 11 28 of 54 1 of 4 0 of 0
Brandon Moreno 49 of 161 30% 37 of 147 11 of 11 1 of 3 48 of 159 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Brandon Royval 29 of 54 53% 15 of 34 10 of 16 4 of 4 26 of 46 3 of 8 0 of 0
Brandon Moreno 41 of 140 29% 34 of 132 6 of 7 1 of 1 41 of 140 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Angelo is very confident in Moreno, citing his pace, toughness, and improvement since their last fight. He believes Moreno is better everywhere and will eventually break Royval, likely in the fourth or fifth round. He notes Moreno already won this fight once and will do it again at home.

likely fourth or fifth round finish
"Moreno is a very confident pick here he has already won this fight I think he wins this fight again"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Big Brady picks Brandon Moreno to win by decision. He notes that Moreno has never been finished in 30 fights, which is crucial against a finisher like Royval. He believes Moreno has more paths to win, especially by taking the fight to the mat where Royval has poor takedown defense (40%). He thinks Moreno can control Royval on the ground and potentially submit him, but leans toward a decision. He questions Royval's ability to win a decision or finish Moreno.

Moreno wins by decision
"I like the minute winning ability especially on the ground for Moreno and I'll pick him to win this fight I'm torn between decision or submission um I don't know I think I'm I'm leaning more towards decision for Brandon …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Cody picks Moreno, citing Moreno's cast-iron chin, takedown ability, and the fact that Royval is coming in on short notice after a five-round war with Pantoja eight weeks ago. He notes Royval's takedown defense is a serious problem and that Moreno already beat him once. He acknowledges the line is justifiable and is not playing contrarian.

"Mareno is the favorite is he this big of a favorite it's justifiable and I'm not going to play contrarian I'll take the favorite"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

The host expects Moreno to replicate his first fight strategy by using his wrestling advantage to control Royval on the ground. He notes Moreno's good submission defense against Royval's aggressive style. Even if the fight stays standing, Moreno is the more technical striker. He predicts Moreno will grind out a decision victory.

"I think that's going to come to fruition once again as Moreno grinds this fight out utilizing his wrestling advantage to get this Victory on the scorecards even if this fight ends up playing out in the Striking room I …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Moreno. He highlights Moreno's cast-iron durability as kryptonite to Royval's game, and notes that Moreno's ability to mix in takedowns will secure rounds in front of a hometown crowd. He also mentions Royval's short-notice turnaround and the altitude disadvantage, though Royval trains in Denver.

"I'll take the favorite yeah I mean the the Saving Grace as opposed four Ro Val is that he trains in Denver"
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandre Pantoja 0 95 of 156 60% 126 of 195 8 of 14 57% 1 0 15:51
Brandon Royval 0 111 of 204 54% 281 of 390 0 of 1 0% 0 2 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandre Pantoja 0 27 of 40 67% 29 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:50
Brandon Royval 0 13 of 30 43% 40 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Alexandre Pantoja 0 10 of 15 66% 24 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:44
Brandon Royval 0 12 of 16 75% 80 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexandre Pantoja 0 17 of 26 65% 23 of 38 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:13
Brandon Royval 0 24 of 46 52% 63 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:06
4 Alexandre Pantoja 0 0 of 1 0% 1 of 3 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:21
Brandon Royval 0 7 of 14 50% 28 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:31
5 Alexandre Pantoja 0 41 of 74 55% 49 of 82 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:43
Brandon Royval 0 55 of 98 56% 70 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandre Pantoja 95 of 156 60% 49 of 101 22 of 30 24 of 25 74 of 130 5 of 6 16 of 20
Brandon Royval 111 of 204 54% 102 of 193 7 of 9 2 of 2 91 of 177 5 of 6 15 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandre Pantoja 27 of 40 67% 9 of 19 10 of 13 8 of 8 19 of 30 2 of 3 6 of 7
Brandon Royval 13 of 30 43% 11 of 28 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 25 0 of 1 4 of 4
2 Alexandre Pantoja 10 of 15 66% 5 of 8 4 of 6 1 of 1 6 of 10 1 of 1 3 of 4
Brandon Royval 12 of 16 75% 9 of 13 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 12 1 of 1 3 of 3
3 Alexandre Pantoja 17 of 26 65% 5 of 14 6 of 6 6 of 6 15 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
Brandon Royval 24 of 46 52% 21 of 43 2 of 2 1 of 1 20 of 42 2 of 2 2 of 2
4 Alexandre Pantoja 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brandon Royval 7 of 14 50% 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 12
5 Alexandre Pantoja 41 of 74 55% 30 of 59 2 of 5 9 of 10 34 of 65 0 of 0 7 of 9
Brandon Royval 55 of 98 56% 54 of 95 1 of 3 0 of 0 53 of 96 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

Angelo picks Pantoja to win by finish in the third or fourth round, citing Pantoja's grappling advantage and Royval's low takedown defense. He notes that Pantoja already won the rematch two years ago and expects a similar outcome. He has a 'good size bet' on Pantoja.

Good size bet on Pantoja; finish in round 3 or 4
"I see Pantoja winning this fight by finish third or fourth round... I do have a good size bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

Big Brady picks Pantoja to win by first-round submission, recalling their first fight where Pantoja was exhausted but capitalized on a Royval mistake to choke him out. He notes Royval's poor striking defense (50% striking defense) and tendency to make mistakes on the mat, giving up his back and position. Brady believes Pantoja's submission game is elite and that Royval cannot afford errors at this level. He expects an exciting banger but sees Pantoja finding a finish early.

"I like Pantoja here I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Cody picks Royval as an underdog, citing his chaotic style, improved striking, and ability to scramble back to his feet after takedowns. He notes that Royval trains at altitude in Denver and has solid cardio, while Pantoja's cardio is overblown but his body language looks tired. Cody acknowledges the risk: Royval has durability issues and was submitted by Pantoja before, but at +160 he sees value.

"I'm going to go with Roy Val Underdog pick here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Daniel Vreeland picks Brandon Royval as an upset, attributing Royval's loss in the first fight to a rushed return from injury. He believes Royval's striking has improved and that his scrambles will keep the fight on the feet. Vreeland notes Royval's recent wins over Matt Schnell and Kai Kara-France by submission show his dangerous ground game. He thinks Royval can hang with Pantoja on the feet and win the rematch.

"I'm gonna go upset here I'm gonna go raw dog"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

Jeff Fox picks Alexandre Pantoja, stating he is the better fighter overall and has already beaten Royval. He questions the quality of Royval's recent opponents, noting that Pantoja has faced tougher competition. Fox believes Pantoja will successfully defend his title for the first time.

"Pantoja is my pick here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Lucrative James picks Brandon Royval outright. He believes Royval was breaking Pantoja in their first fight before getting submitted, and he thinks Royval's pace is the highest at flyweight. He argues that Pantoja may have been breaking and that Royval's motivation is higher as the challenger. He acknowledges Pantoja's submission threat but feels the value is on Royval as an underdog.

"I'm actually picking Brandon Royval outright... I just don't think Pantoja is going to be able to keep up with him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

The host favors Pantoja due to his discipline, technique, and masterful Jiu-Jitsu, which he believes will be too much for Royval's chaotic style. He notes that in their first fight, Pantoja consistently secured Royval's back and eventually got a rear-naked choke. He also points out Royval's poor takedown defense and expects Pantoja to get the fight to the ground and find a submission. He acknowledges Royval's upset potential but trusts the more reliable fighter.

Pantoja by submission, under 2.5 rounds
"I think pantoja's discipline technique and just overall masterful approach to his Jiu-Jitsu is going to be too much to for Roy Val here and that will allow panta to get his hand raised"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

Paul picks Pantoja, arguing that Royval's level of competition is lower and that Pantoja has never been finished. He points to Pantoja's performance against Brandon Moreno where he landed 129 significant strikes, a knockdown, and six takedowns. Paul believes Pantoja's cardio issues are overblown and that Royval tends to fade in dogfights, while Pantoja is an absolute dog.

Pantoja by submission +155
"I think it's Pantoja by sub would be interesting"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexandre Pantoja

The Guru picks Pantoja over Royval, noting Pantoja's improved ground control and back-taking ability, as seen against Moreno and Perez. He acknowledges Royval's scrambling but believes Pantoja's chin is solid and Royval is hittable. He predicts Pantoja will knock down Royval and secure a rear-naked choke in round one.

Pantoja by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 1
"I'm going to say round one Pantoja knocks down Roy Val towards the three minute Mark and gets a rear naked choke towards the end of the round"
KO (knee and elbows) R1 2:09 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 1 13 of 22 59% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Matheus Nicolau 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 1 13 of 22 59% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Matheus Nicolau 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 13 of 22 59% 13 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 13
Matheus Nicolau 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 13 of 22 59% 13 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 13
Matheus Nicolau 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau, citing his technical striking and methodical grappling. He believes Nicolau's technical striking will overcome Royval's chaos, and that Royval won't be able to take Nicolau down, making it a kickboxing match where Nicolau shines. He notes Royval was dropped badly by Schnell. He has a half-unit moneyline bet on Nicolau at -155.

half unit moneyline bet at -155
"I think his technical striking should be able to get through the chaos that Brandon Roy Val creates"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Big Brady picks Brandon Royval to win by first-round knockout. He describes Royval as a wild, unique fighter who thrives in chaos, while Nicolau is calm and composed. He believes Royval's style will force a brawl, and notes Nicolau has been knocked out before. He expects fireworks and a finish.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take Roy Val to knock out Mateus nickel out here I'll say he does it in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Cody thinks Nicolau is technically sound and should weather Royval's early chaos. He notes Royval is dangerous early but tends to fade and is injury-prone. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop as well.

Under 2.5 rounds (-120)
"I think eventually Mateus nicolao gets the job done here and under two and a half rounds is minus 120"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Nicolau's counter striking is excellently timed and that he has the wrestling to handle Royval's scrambles. He also notes that Nicolau is a solid positional grappler and can be the one with key switch-ups.

"I think more than most fighters that Rival tries to march down and overwhelm, he's going to find counters hard to come by here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Royval's chaos and output will overwhelm Nicolau, who tends to have close fights and low output. Royval's scrambling and submission threat create opportunities. Nicolau's discipline may crack under pressure. Royval can finish inside the distance, as his style leads to finishes. Under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.

Under 2.5 rounds; Royval wins inside the distance
"I'm gonna go with the raw dog here as the underdog I'm going to take him to win this fight inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Paul agrees, calling Royval 'frail' and noting his tendency to get finished. He thinks Nicolau's accurate counter-striking and durability will lead to a finish or clear decision. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I'm just uh locking in under two and a half at minus 110 right now"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau, praising his technical, composed style and BJJ background. He believes Nicolau will read Royval's wild, tornado-like approach and make him pay, potentially by submission or KO. He notes Royval's size and unpredictability but thinks Nicolau's polish and 93% takedown defense will be decisive.

Nicolau wins by finish (submission or KO)
"give me Mathias nicolao to get the job done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Zane picks Nicolau because he is a cleaner fighter and a better counter puncher. He notes that Nicolau has the wrestling component to his counter game, which gives him an option to interrupt Royval's relentless pressure. He also mentions that Nicolau is a bigger striker with excellent timing and can handle Royval's grappling.

"But I just think Nicolau is a cleaner. He's, he's just a better fighter than Rival, I think."
WIN vs Matt Schnell
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:14 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Royval 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:13
Matt Schnell 1 12 of 33 36% 15 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Royval 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:13
Matt Schnell 1 12 of 33 36% 15 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Royval 14 of 39 35% 9 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 1
Matt Schnell 12 of 33 36% 9 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 28 0 of 0 2 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Royval 14 of 39 35% 9 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 1
Matt Schnell 12 of 33 36% 9 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 28 0 of 0 2 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brandon Royval vs. Matt Schnell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Royval (-240), Schnell (+195)

Round 1
The opener of the prelim card – which differs slightly from the early preliminaries even if they remain on the same network – is sure to be a wild one for as long as it lasts. All-action Royval (13-6, 3-2 UFC) ended the first two-fight skid of his career in January by claiming a decision over Rogerio Bontorin, while Schnell (15-5, 1 NC; 5-3, 1 NC UFC) will be returning to action for the first time in nearly a year since he also took on Bontorin. Of note, while Schnell did drop a decision to Bontorin that night, Bontorin tested positive for banned supplements and the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation overturned it to a no contest. Both looking to get the taste of Bontorin out of their mouths, so to speak, they touch gloves in front of referee Ryan Brueggeman to move along in their careers. Schnell starts off with a barrage of punches, and Royval greets him with punches and a head kick of his own. Royval steps in with a knee to back Schnell off, and Royval slings a few head kicks for good measure. Royval goes low and then high with kicks, and Schnell walks through them to launch a right hand. These two flyweights are swinging for the fences early, and both are connecting frequently. Schnell snaps the head back with a left hand, and Royval responds with a left of his own. Schnell bears down on him and drills Royval with a right hand, and Royval hits the ground and immediately goes fishing for a leglock. Royval rolls for a heel hook, and Schnell turns all his way around and through it to lower himself to the mat on top. Royval sets up an omoplata shoulder lock to force a sweep, and Schnell wrenches his arm free and snags hold of a guillotine choke. Royval rolls through it and looks for a brabo choke.
This does not land, so “Raw Dawg” turns it to a guillotine choke. As soon as he cinches it up, he pulls guard and locks a leg around Schnell’s waist. The grip from Royval is so crushingly tight that Schnell thinks about fighting out of it, and suddenly realizes he is in grave danger and taps out with both hands.
Brueggeman takes a moment to register the taps, and he jumps in to separate the fighters after their short but memorable thriller.

The Official Result
Brandon Royval def. Matt Schnell R1 2:14 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Angelo picks Brandon Royval, citing his forward pressure and sneaky grappling as the difference. He notes that both fighters are willing to bang but Royval is a better pure grappler. He expects a potential fight of the night.

"roy val's forward pressure and sneaky grappling will be the difference here so roy val is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Big Brady picks Brandon Royval to win by first-round knockout. He believes this is a nightmare matchup for Schnell because Royval will force a brawl, and Schnell has a history of being knocked out (by Font, Sandoval, Pantoja). Schnell has changed his style to be more cautious, but Royval's pressure will drag him into a war. Royval has the striking advantage, durability, and dangerous ground game. Schnell is not a strong offensive wrestler, so he cannot exploit Royval's poor takedown defense. Brady expects Royval to finish Schnell in brutal fashion in the first round.

first round knockout
"I think royval runs through him I think roy val finishes matt schnell in the very first round if match nell's not gonna come out here and wrestle which I don't think he will I think he's in some serious …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Cody picks Brandon Royval, noting that Schnell's chin is suspect and Royval's unorthodox striking and grappling are at a higher level. He points out that Royval has wins over Tim Elliott and Kai Kara-France, while Schnell has beaten lower-level opposition. Cody believes Royval can win standing or on the ground, and expects a stoppage. He is confident in Royval as one of his key plays.

"i think he's the rightful guy minus 240 don't mind it i'm gonna play him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Daniel Levi picks Brandon Royval confidently, though he does not bet due to the high price. He likes Royval's pace, pressure, and opportunistic submissions. He notes Schnell is technically sound but lacks durability and takedown ability. He considers a KO prop for Royval at +460 but does not pull the trigger.

Daniel considers a Royval KO prop at +460 but does not bet. He passes on betting altogether.
"My pick is Royvall. I'm passing all together."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Brandon Royval

The host picks Royval to win but prefers betting the under 2.5 rounds at -145. He highlights Royval's chaotic style that overwhelms opponents, using the Kai Kara-France fight as an example. He notes Schnell is technically better but will struggle with Royval's pace and unpredictability. He acknowledges Royval leaves himself vulnerable to submissions, but expects the fight to end inside the distance, likely with Royval winning. He is concerned about Royval's price at -235 and prefers the under.

under 2.5 rounds -145; fight doesn't go to decision -170
"the pick is still gonna be roy val it's just too difficult for me to trust him at minus 235 minus 240 considering how he fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Paul picks Brandon Royval and is also interested in the under 2.5 rounds. He notes that Schnell has chin issues and Royval's volume and pace could clip him. Paul thinks Royval can get a finish, but also acknowledges that Royval's own pace could lead to him wilting. He likes the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop and plans to parlay it with the Cerrone-Lauzon under.

under 2.5 rounds at -145; fight doesn't go to decision at -170
"i'm picking roy val as well to get the job done um matt schnell i i don't think i've ever picked him though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

The MMA Guru picks Brandon Royval, citing his wildness and finishing ability. He notes Royval has good submissions and KO power, and believes he will bait Schnell into a scrap and catch him. He criticizes Schnell's chin and predictable style. He predicts a first-round TKO, possibly via spinning elbow.

"i'm gonna trust in brandon royval's wildness and his ko ability in the flyweight division to get this one done over match nell"
Matt Schnell - Fight History
SCHED vs Alessandro Costa
13
138 MMA Expert Hesitant picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

The host picks Costa, mostly because of Schnell's durability issues, noting that Costa has power and could knock Schnell out. He acknowledges that if the fight goes to decision, Schnell might outpoint Costa due to higher volume. He mentions that Costa is taking the fight on short notice, which adds uncertainty.

"I'm taking Costa mostly just because the durability of Schnell doesn't seem to be there."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

AJ sees this as a mismatch, with Alessandro Costa being a well-rounded fighter with knockout power and submission threat, while Matt Schnell is past his prime and too hittable. He expects Costa to finish early, possibly by submission, and notes the catchweight at 130 benefits Costa.

Alessandro Costa by submission +525 (explicitly mentioned as sneaky prop), early finish (implied)
"Alisandro Costa. man, six to one odds, but makes sense."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lock picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

AJ is extremely confident in Costa, calling him a lock. He cites Costa's well-rounded skills, including Muay Thai, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu, and notes Schnell's decline with 1-4 in last five. AJ expects Costa to finish Schnell, likely by submission in round one, and sees this as a one-sided affair.

under 1.5 rounds minus 135; Costa by submission round 1
"I think Costa absolutely clears... I think Costa is a lock here. I don't see him losing this fight."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo is extremely confident in Alessandro Costa, calling it the easiest breakdown on the card. He notes Costa's power, speed, and leg kicks, while highlighting Matt Schnell's horrendous chin. He believes Costa will knock Schnell out, and says -550 is a 'deal of a lifetime' that will move to -1400 by fight night.

Odds -550, expects line to move to -1400
"Minus 550 the deal of a lifetime and it will not stay there. It'll be minus 1,400 come fight night."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Big Brady picks Alessandro Costa to win by first round submission. He believes Matt Schnell is washed up, has poor durability, and can't grapple anymore. He sees Costa's power and BJJ as major threats, and expects Schnell to either get knocked out or submitted quickly.

by first round submission
"I'm going to take Alessandro Costa. Um going to take him by first round submission."
BU
Bum MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Matt Schnell has a terrible chin, having been knocked out or submitted multiple times. Alessandro Costa has power and will likely knock him out in the first round. Schnell is 36 and has considered retirement, while Costa is a solid finisher.

KO in first round
"Give me Costa by knockout in the first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Cody confidently picks Costa, citing Schnell's poor durability, cardio, and takedown defense. He notes Costa has power and multiple paths to victory, including knockout or ground-and-pound. Schnell's chin and tendency to fade make him a risky bet.

"I can't get behind Matt Snell... I think Aleandro Costa could submit."
FI
Fight Night Picks Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Alessandro Costa is picked because Matt Schnell's chin is unreliable and Costa has power in his hands. Schnell cannot sit in the pocket with Costa or he will get knocked out. Costa also has grappling skills. The host sees no clear path for Schnell and expects Costa to win inside the distance, likely by knockout.

Alessandro Costa wins inside the distance (knockout)
"I do believe Alandra Costa wins. I don't really see a clear path for match now. So feels like Alandro Costa should win inside the distance."
GR
Greedo Plays MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Costa is a much better fighter at this point, with power and solid grappling. Schnell has a glass chin and has been knocked out repeatedly. Costa should finish him in the first round.

first round KO
"Alandro Costa knocks out Matt Schnell in the very first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Costa is a BJJ black belt with power and strong grappling. Schnell has poor submission defense and gets finished often. Costa should dominate and eventually lock up a submission. The Costa by submission prop at +500 is a good play.

Costa by submission (+500)
"I think Costa will go out there, I think he'll put the power and pain on Chnel and I think it's just a matter of time before he either finds a knockout or a submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Paul picks Costa by knockout in round 2, noting Costa's power and Schnell's chin issues. He expects Costa to land eventually, as Schnell cannot withstand pressure. He avoids betting the moneyline due to high price but likes the KO prop.

Costa knockout round 2
"Costa knockout round two would be my official prediction."
CANCEL vs Imanol Rodriguez
LOSS vs Joseph Morales
Submission R1 2:54 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Schnell 0 4 of 11 36% 5 of 12 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:15
Joseph Morales 0 5 of 11 45% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Schnell 0 4 of 11 36% 5 of 12 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:15
Joseph Morales 0 5 of 11 45% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Schnell 4 of 11 36% 1 of 8 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joseph Morales 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Schnell 4 of 11 36% 1 of 8 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joseph Morales 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joseph Morales vs. Matt Schnell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-270); Schnell (+220)

Round 1
The year is 2025 and it will be ending in less than two months, and the promotion has the matchmaking wherewithal to jam a pair of very unranked .500 fighters together and plop it on the co-main event slot intentionally. Schnell (17-9, 1 NC; 7-7, 1 NC UFC) has established himself as a “live by the sword, die by the sword” competitor with way more stoppages on his win-loss ledger than decisions. “Bopo” Morales (13-2, 2-2 UFC) is looking to make the most of his second stint with the promotion, having won his return in August by submission to capture the trophy of Season 33 of “The Ultimate Fighter.” Taking charge of the cage for this no-nonsense flyweight affair where the winner may not get a number next to their name on Monday is referee Keith Peterson. Gloves are touched.
Schnell moves to the center of the cage, keeping his hands outstretched and measuring with a body kick. Schnell trades hands with his opponent, and Morales clips him with punches and a high kick. “Bopo” crashes forward behind a right hand, and Schnell trips him up and puts him on the ground. Morales quickly reverses him by tripping out the ankle, and he races over to climb into side control just 75 seconds into the round. Morales maintains heavy, tight chest and shoulder pressure, grinding on Schnell’s face with his elbow and otherwise keeping him from scrambling. Schnell throws his legs up high for a possible reversal, and Morales counters by going two-on-one to control Schnell’s left arm. Morales fights out of a triangle choke and hooks up a crucifix position from the back.
Schnell explodes to turn over and claim top position, and “Bopo” answers him flawlessly.
Schnell puts himself in the worst possible place when pursuing a counter takedown, placing his neck practically into the jaws of a guillotine choke setup from the Team Alpha Male fighter. Morales tightens his grip without having to adjust much, and Schnell promptly surrenders.
Commentator Paul Felder promptly questions the strategy of Schnell on the broadcast, raising other questions that came up last week during the infamous Dulgarian vs. Del Valle match. We won’t touch on those here, and will instead note that a member of TAM landed one of their vaunted guillotines, the first in how long? It is the third sub in a row for Morales, and his second back-to-back in the UFC cage.

The Official Result
Joseph Morales def. Matt Schnell R1 2:54 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Joseph Morales

Angelo picks Joseph Morales because he has good takedowns and Matt Schnell has poor takedown defense. He notes that even though Schnell has good jiu-jitsu, Morales is also good on top and can avoid submissions. He calls the fight straightforward: one guy can get takedowns, the other can't defend them.

"Jose Marales is the pick, and I think he avoids any chaotic submissions coming from bottom."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Joseph Morales

Big Brady is very confident in Morales, predicting a submission win via double tap. He notes Schnell has been finished eight times, has poor takedown defense, and a weak chin. He believes Morales will hurt Schnell on the feet, take him down, and lock up a submission, causing Schnell to double tap.

submission, double tap
"I'm going to take Morales to win this fight. I'm going to win this and win this fight by submission via double tap."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Joseph Morales

Cody is confident in Morales, citing his improved skills at Team Alpha Male, his dominant TUF run, and his win over Alibi Idris. He notes Schnell's poor durability, cardio, and ring IQ, and believes Morales will find a finish via submission or knockout.

"I think Joseph Morales finds a finish at some point here, whether it's a submission or a club and sub or a straight up knockout."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Joseph Morales

Lucrative James is confident in Joseph Morales. He highlights Morales' superior wrestling and grappling, noting that Matt Schnell has been taken down and submitted throughout his career. He believes Morales can replicate Jimmy Flick's game plan but with better cardio, and predicts a submission finish. He also mentions Morales' good guard and ability to finish from top or bottom.

submission
"I'm predicting Joseph Morales to make a statement in this fight to get a finish in this fight. I'm predicting him pretty confidently here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joseph Morales

The host believes Morales is underrated and will showcase dominance in grappling, taking advantage of Schnell's submission defense issues. He expects Morales to find a submission within two rounds.

Submission within 2 rounds
"Look for Morales to find that submission within two rounds."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Joseph Morales

Paul agrees, highlighting Morales's youth, improved striking and wrestling, and Schnell's tendency to make mistakes and get finished. He thinks Morales can outwork Schnell and that the fight ending inside the distance is a good parlay piece.

fight ends inside the distance
"Joseph Morales is a clear play this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joseph Morales

The Guru picks Joseph Morales to win by TKO. He believes Morales has better striking, a more reliable chin, and good takedown defense, while Matt Schnell is hittable and prone to getting stunned. He expects Schnell to shoot failing takedowns and get finished on the feet.

TKO finish
"I'm going with Joseph Morales getting this one done by TKO."
WIN vs Jimmy Flick
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Schnell 0 35 of 61 57% 88 of 117 0 of 0 --- 3 1 3:53
Jimmy Flick 0 12 of 20 60% 48 of 60 5 of 7 71% 1 1 8:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Schnell 0 6 of 15 40% 20 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jimmy Flick 0 8 of 11 72% 33 of 37 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:41
2 Matt Schnell 0 18 of 25 72% 46 of 55 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:28
Jimmy Flick 0 3 of 4 75% 11 of 13 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:14
3 Matt Schnell 0 11 of 21 52% 22 of 32 0 of 0 --- 2 1 2:25
Jimmy Flick 0 1 of 5 20% 4 of 10 2 of 3 66% 0 1 1:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Schnell 35 of 61 57% 33 of 58 1 of 1 1 of 2 12 of 34 4 of 4 19 of 23
Jimmy Flick 12 of 20 60% 8 of 13 0 of 2 4 of 5 8 of 16 2 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Schnell 6 of 15 40% 5 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 8 of 11 72% 4 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 5 7 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Matt Schnell 18 of 25 72% 18 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 1 of 1 15 of 19
Jimmy Flick 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1
3 Matt Schnell 11 of 21 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 2 4 of 14 3 of 3 4 of 4
Jimmy Flick 1 of 5 20% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jimmy Flick vs. Matt Schnell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Schnell (-285), Flick (+230)

Round 1
An interesting matchup between flyweight finishers concludes the long prelims. This is a pivotal one for both men, as they are both struggling as of late. Schnell (16-9, 1 NC; 6-7, 1 NC UFC) fell below .500 in the UFC while riding a three-fight skid, with the third of those nearly forcing him into retirement. Like Schnell, Flick (17-8, 2-3 UFC) also offered a retirement that did not stick a few years ago, but with one win in his last four outings, it’s make or break for him. Referee Dan Miragliotta may be needed for the bout’s entire duration, but the judges might be able to kick back and relax when the two 125ers engage. Before searching for the stoppage that may soon come, the fighters cordially touch ‘em up first. Schnell is light on his feet as he ramps up his offense, not letting Flick get off much of his own as he peppers his foe with strikes. Flick walks into a right hand and ducks away to reset, and Schnell splits the guard with a jab. Flick surges into action with three swiping left hands, and he uses the surprise offense to shoot in for a single. Schnell remains on his feet, and Flick chases after him and bullies him to the wall. Flick pursues the takedown, tripping out Schnell’s right leg to place him on his seat. As Schnell scrambles, Flick jumps over to half guard and then the side, where he looks for an arm-triangle choke. Schnell walks off the face, pushing Flick off of him and setting up a potential triangle choke. Schnell loops his left leg around the shoulder, and Flick powers his weight down to stifle the triangle. Schnell drags Flick back to half guard, and he wraps punches around the head and lands a few to the back of the dome as well. Schnell re-closes his guard, and Flick takes advantage of this opportunity by hacking down with elbows. Schnell’s possible triangle setup comes up short as Flick no-sells it, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Flick
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Flick
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Flick

Round 2
Schnell comes out of his corner looking for kicks, and his first is a calf kick. Flick comes up top with a right hand, and he shoots in for a takedown. Schnell defends with a guillotine choke, but the impact of the two hitting the canvas breaks the grip. Flick lands in half guard and pressures down with his shoulder for the first step of an arm-triangle choke, and he wraps his hands together to further go after it. Flick keeps staying after the arm-triangle, and he allows Schnell to turn to his side so he can slither around and take the back. Flick adjusts his grip and searches for a side-naked choke, but Schnell’s arm is in to give him enough space to survive. Schnell turns using his feet on the wall to fight out of the sub, and Flick is subsequently returned to full guard. “The Brick” imposes his body weight down, and Schnell defends by hooking his leg around Flick’s shoulder for an omoplata. Flick sits up, and he jumps guard for a guillotine choke. Schnell tosses the arm grip aside and starts mounting offense, hammering the submission specialist with punches until Flick uses butterfly hooks to gain some space. When Schnell stands upright, Flick beans him with an upkick. Schnell shakes it off and keeps Flick on the ground by striking him. Flick again postures up and jumps for a guillotine and it is much tighter. “Danger” remains composed and is not concerned of the danger of the sub, and he wriggles his neck free and lashes out with nasty ground-and-pound that splits Flick’s forehead open. Schnell defends with a hard elbow and jumps guard for a guillotine, and Miragliotta thinks the 10-second clapper is the bell again and touches the fighters. Schnell releases the grip, expecting the round is over, and Flick is arguably saved by this mistake as the power guillotine was frighteningly tight. As Schnell rolls Flick over, the horn does sound.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Schnell

Round 3
The third round opens with Schnell willing to engage in the striking, and Flick does the same for a brief spell until he grabs hold of Schnell’s leg for a single. Schnell hits his back and wraps his leg up for a possible triangle, and when that fails, he kicks Flick off of him. Flick appears dazed as blood streams down his face, and Schnell is the fresher of the two and jumps to his feet first. Flick follows him, and he shoots for a double. Schnell defends with a 10-finger guillotine, and Flick appears to tap a single time as he was pushing on Schnell’s leg to thwart the submission. Flick breaks out of the sub and lowers himself to his back, and he turns to his side and sits up to try to put Schnell on his back. Schnell leans against the wall, and Flick still tries to wrap him up with a guillotine choke. Flick stands up with the choke, and he knees Schnell in the chest. Schnell stands so he does not take another knee, and Flick shoots for a double. When Flick transitions to a single, Schnell grips a guillotine and drags Flick to the canvas. “Danger” uses the maneuver to roll over into top position with 85 seconds to spare, and he is quick to take advantage of the position change by elbowing Flick in the cut. Flick scrambles and gives up his back, and Schnell gets both hooks in and instantly fastens a rear-naked choke. Flick fights the top hand to keep breathing, and Schnell briefly considers a neck crank but is more intent on maintaining a body lock than getting the tap. Schnell concludes the matchup with some ground strikes, and the two men hear the final bell and raise their arms in the air.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Schnell (29-28 Schnell)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Schnell (29-28 Schnell)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Schnell (29-28 Schnell)

The Official Result
Matt Schnell def. Jimmy Flick via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Matt Schnell

Angelo picks Matt Schnell, calling him the better fighter despite his compromised chin. He notes that Schnell is a solid striker with good BJJ, while Jimmy Flick is a one-dimensional grappler with terrible striking stats (5.43 significant strikes absorbed per minute). He compares the choice to cat poop vs. dog poop, but concludes Schnell is the real fighter.

"Matchell is the better fighter though. So cat poop's better than dog poop."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

Big Brady picks Jimmy Flick, citing Matt Schnell's poor chin, takedown defense, and submission defense. He notes Schnell has been submitted three times and has no knockout power. He expects Flick to get a takedown and submit Schnell, predicting a first-round submission. He is shocked Schnell is a -300 favorite.

first round submission
"I'll take Jimmy Flick to to tap out Matt Schnell and retire him uh once again. So, yeah, they give me Jimmy Flick by first round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jimmy Flick

The host got Flick at plus 200 and believes his unorthodox grappling and jiu-jitsu will allow him to catch Schnell in a submission, despite Flick's absent striking game.

submission, got him at +200
"I believe he has a unorthodox enough grappling and jiu-jitsu game to eventually catch Snell in something and eventually pull off a submission victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Flick as an underdog, despite acknowledging Schnell is technically better. He cannot trust Schnell's chin, as he gets knocked out too often at flyweight. He thinks Flick can make it a dirty fight and has submission ability. He admits his pick is based on a weird feeling and Schnell's chinny reputation.

"I'm gonna go Jimmy Flick for some [__] weird reason. I just can't trust Matt Neell to make it through a fight without being chinned."
LOSS vs Cody Durden
Submission (ninja choke) R2 0:29 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Durden 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Matt Schnell 0 34 of 78 43% 37 of 81 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Durden 0 40 of 80 50% 40 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matt Schnell 0 33 of 77 42% 36 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cody Durden 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Matt Schnell 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Durden 40 of 83 48% 32 of 73 3 of 3 5 of 7 38 of 81 2 of 2 0 of 0
Matt Schnell 34 of 78 43% 31 of 73 3 of 5 0 of 0 34 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Durden 40 of 80 50% 32 of 71 3 of 3 5 of 6 38 of 78 2 of 2 0 of 0
Matt Schnell 33 of 77 42% 30 of 72 3 of 5 0 of 0 33 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Cody Durden 0 of 3 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Schnell 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Durden vs. Matt Schnell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Durden (-335), Schnell (+220)

Round 1
Due to the late nature of this flyweight pairing coming together—Durden (16-6-1, 5-4-1 UFC) will serve as a replacement to Alessandro Costa—the two men next will be fighting up in weight at bantamweight. Both short-notice Durden and Schnell (16-8, 1 NC; 6-6, 1 NC UFC) are hovering around the .500 mark in the promotion, so a win may go a long way while a loss could spell disaster. Referee Chris Tognoni will serve as the Octagon ranger for this contest, and gloves are touched to get things going. Durden moves to the center of the cage and is caught with an early uppercut. Durden backs off and finds another way in, and Schnell clips him twice more in a speedy exchange. Schnell points at him but does not capitalize on hurting and reddening Durden, instead allowing Durden to walk him down. Durden elects to fight to his disadvantage, brawling wildly and backing Schnell up a big. Durden lands several body shots until Schnell fires back, and Schnell’s attacks are more powerful and result in Durden thinking twice. Durden lands a right and eats two rights back. Durden unleashes a fury of punches, and Schnell shakes him up with furious counters that are heavier and faster. Durden wipes his hands and blinks it out, and he backs away as Schnell kicks him in the ribs. Durden wings a few punches that come up short, and Schnell times an outside leg kick that buckles the knee. Durden catches his man on the end of a left hand, and Schnell fires back with a right. Durden clubs him with a hard right, and Schnell skirts to the side and prepares an uppercut that lands on the nose. Schnell clacks the front leg again, and he allows Durden to overswing so he can counter effectively. Durden still manages to get off his right hand a few times, and Schnell’s head movement and footwork keeps him from absorbing any flush. Schnell snipes his man a few times until Durden pushes out a front kick to slow him down. Schnell ducks a head kick that skims his hair, and the two throw caution to the wind and brawl again. Schnell gets tagged with a left hand on the nose, and he winds up and retorts with a flurry of fists. Durden connects at the end of a right hand that cuts Schnell’s eyebrow, and Schnell bites down on his gumshield and blasts Durden in the face with an overhand right. Durden spins with a wheel kick that brushes past his opponent, and Schnell gathers his thoughts and punches his way into a short combo. They trade left hands, and Schnell lands three while Durden gets off two. The two trade right to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 2
The fighters are ready to pick up right where they left off, and after a few low kicks, Schnell lands a big left hand. After connecting, Schnell shoots in with a telegraphed takedown, and Durden’s eyes go wide and he grins as he snatches hold of a guillotine choke. Schnell twists around, and Durden chains his submission into a ninja choke. When “Danger” keeps turning, he finds himself in even graver danger, as Durden locks the choke down and turns Schnell to his back. As soon as Schnell is on his back, he taps with both hands in a panic as the submission was likely to put his lights out. Durden releases the choke when Tognoni gets between them and goes over to the cage to shout at someone in the audience. His team manages to calm him down, and he celebrates his handiwork with his wife and corner. While Durden gives his post-fight interview, Schnell removes his gloves and places them in the center of the cage to signal his retirement. Instead of looking for a moment on the mic, Schnell departs the cage, overcome with emotion.

The Official Result
Cody Durden def. Matt Schnell R2 0:29 via Submission (Ninja Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Angelo picks Cody Durden (referred to as Alexandre Costa) because he is a solid striker with real power, good takedown defense, and durability, while Matt Schnell has been in too many wars and his chin is failing. He believes Costa will blast Schnell's legs and crack him in the head, leading to a knockout. He notes that Schnell is not dangerous enough to put Costa away.

"Alexandre Costa should win here he should dominate here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Big Brady picks Cody Durden to win by knockout. He notes Durden is stepping in on short notice but looked career-best in his last fight before getting caught. Brady believes Durden's striking will be the difference and that he just needs to land one clean shot. He warns about Schnell's dangerous grappling but thinks Durden will avoid the ground and finish the fight inside the distance.

fight finishes inside the distance
"give me Duran Duran by knockout and it should be a fight that that finishes inside the distance"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Matt Schnell

Cody picks Schnell, arguing that Durden's short notice, weight cut issues, and lack of corner are major red flags. He notes Schnell's superior experience and cardio, but admits Durden's power and aggression could end it early. He sees value at +250 but is not highly confident.

"I will take match nil"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cody Durden

Daniel is biased as a friend of Durden, but he believes Durden's power and Schnell's weak chin will be the deciding factor. He acknowledges Schnell is well-rounded and technical, but thinks Durden will eventually land a knockout. He notes that Schnell has been knocked out in recent fights and that Durden is aware of Schnell's chin. Despite the short notice, Daniel is confident Durden will get the win.

"I do think eventually at some point Cody Duran's gonna get his second UFC knockout so uh let's let's [ __ ] go Cody Duran... I will never pick against Cody Duran."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Matt Schnell

Paul is intrigued by Schnell at +250, noting Durden is taking the fight on a week's notice, moving up to 135 lbs, and may not have a coach. He acknowledges Schnell's chin issues but believes his experience and cardio advantage could pay off if he survives early. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and leans Schnell.

"maybe matchell is the PRP pick Underdog some series plus money that actually could come through but you can't be ton confident on confident on it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Matt Schnell

The MMA Guru picks Matt Schnell over Cody Durden. He calls Schnell the 'chiniest fighter in UFC history' but believes Alexandro Costa is explosive and powerful. He notes Schnell got wobbled by Sumudaerji and predicts Costa will put him away brutally in round one.

round one finish
"alesandro Costa is going to put him away in round one brutally"
LOSS vs Steve Erceg
KO (punch) R2 0:26 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Erceg 0 22 of 78 28% 25 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matt Schnell 1 34 of 72 47% 34 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Erceg 0 20 of 69 28% 23 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matt Schnell 0 32 of 67 47% 32 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
2 Steve Erceg 0 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matt Schnell 1 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Erceg 22 of 78 28% 18 of 70 1 of 5 3 of 3 21 of 74 1 of 4 0 of 0
Matt Schnell 34 of 72 47% 24 of 60 9 of 11 1 of 1 30 of 67 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Erceg 20 of 69 28% 17 of 63 1 of 4 2 of 2 19 of 65 1 of 4 0 of 0
Matt Schnell 32 of 67 47% 23 of 56 8 of 10 1 of 1 28 of 62 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Steve Erceg 2 of 9 22% 1 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Schnell 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Matt Schnell vs. Steve Erceg
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Erceg (-325), Schnell (+260)

Round 1
It is all action on the main card, which begins with a flashy flyweight affair between wild man Schnell (16-7, 1 NC; 6-5, 1 NC UFC) and surging up-and-comer Erceg (11-1, 2-0 UFC). The Fortis MMA fighter has not fared well as of late, but his most recent win was a spectacular technical submission over Su Mudaerji. The third man in the Octagon will be referee Chris Tognoni, who starts the fight as the speedy gentlemen clap hands together. Schnell immediately gets behind his jab, flicking it out repeatedly to back the once-beaten Erceg away. Schnell connects with a series of punches to shake up the Aussie, and he crowds him and eventually clinches with him and uses an elbow on the inside. Erceg separates, and on the break, he lands a strike to open a cut on the top of Schnell’s left eyebrow. Schnell wings punches, and Erceg sees them coming and dodges before jabbing that already damaged eye. Erceg ducks a punch and misses on a counter, and his jab continues to mark up Schnell’s face. Schnell tries for a knee on the inside when they get up close, and Erceg backs him off with two punches to splatter some blood on Schnell’s cheek. Erceg sinks in a leg kick and slides away, and he puts a one-two on the mark and slides to the side to evade the counter. Schnell swings hard but does not land flush, while Erceg is much tighter and more compact. Schnell pushes out his own jab, and he bloodies the nose of his opponent, but his own eye is turning into a crime scene. Erceg gets in a left and pounds Schnell on the cheek with a heavy right, and Schnell wears it well and jabs his way back out. Erceg staggers his foe with a right hand, and cracks him a second time as Schnell backpedals. Erceg wades in a little too carelessly, and he gets rocked by a fiery right hand from “Danger.” Schnell cracks Erceg again with a series of punches, and Erceg defends by shooting. Schnell sprawls perfectly and pops back up without issue, but Erceg bust him in the chops with a right hand. The Aussie connects with a body kick shortly thereafter, and a one-two and a snappy jab find Schnell’s face before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Erceg

Round 2
The flyweights meet in the middle and touch ‘em up, and Schnell is ready and rearing to go. He starts off with a pair of low kicks and a combination, and he reaches a right hand around the jab.
Erceg continues to jab, and as Schnell comes loaded for bear, “Astro Boy” rips a right to the body and a left that sends Schnell into orbit. There is no need for anything else from the Aussie, and Tognoni intervenes just in case before tending to the unconscious flyweight.
Schnell comes to, and Erceg has now earned the second knockout of his professional career—doing so against one of the best foes he could in a top-ranked Schnell.

The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. Matt Schnell R2 0:26 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Angelo picks Steve Erceg, noting his slick grappling and ability to scramble. He thinks Erceg will use his length and grappling to win, despite not looking like a professional fighter. He acknowledges Matt Schnell's toughness but believes Erceg will get the win, possibly by decision.

"Steve EG is going to get this win I think he's going to move to three wins in the UFC he's going to be the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Big Brady picks Erceg to win by second-round submission. He worries about Schnell's chin and durability, noting Schnell has been finished in 6 of 7 losses and has taken massive damage. He thinks Erceg will hurt Schnell and then submit him. He acknowledges Schnell's grappling but believes his durability is a major issue.

second round submission
"give me EG here I think it's a club and sub I think he hurts matchell this fight hits the Madden he Subs him shortly after"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Cody picks Erceg, emphasizing Schnell's poor durability and history of getting knocked down. He notes that Erceg is a scrappy fighter with good grappling and volume, and that Schnell's best chance is a Hail Mary submission. Cody believes Erceg will eventually hurt Schnell and finish him, possibly in the middle rounds. He disagrees with the over, leaning towards the fight not going the distance.

"I'm leaning towards this fight not going the distance and that's what makes one and a half one and a half rounds we're not talking yeah it's Matt it's Matt Schnell man God damn"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Erceg is too clean and precise with his striking for Schnell, who lacks the reaction time to stop him. Erceg should land straight shots down the pipe, drop Schnell, and find the finish. Schnell has durability issues and has been in trouble in fights he even won. Erceg's BJJ is also a threat, but the host prefers a TKO finish. The under 1.5 rounds is plus money, and Erceg inside the distance is the play.

Erceg inside the distance, under 1.5 rounds +110
"I fully see IG Landing the shot straight down the pipe I see him following up with some submissions I hope we see him go out there and just try to get the TKO Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Paul picks Erceg and likes the over 1.5 rounds at -130. He notes Erceg is not a big power puncher but has a high pace and good grappling. He thinks Schnell is chinny and has been knocked out multiple times, but Erceg may not have the power to finish early, making the over likely. He mentions Schnell's durability issues but believes Erceg will wear him down.

over 1.5 rounds (-130)
"I think over one and a half rounds minus 130 seems like a good look here... I haven't seen much from EG to lead me to believe that like he's got that dynamite in his hands"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

The MMA Guru picks Erceg but is not entirely confident. He criticizes Schnell's chin and submission defense, saying he taps easily. He expects Erceg to outdamage Schnell over a decision, possibly dropping him, but notes Erceg's finishing instincts are not great. He predicts a decision win for Erceg.

decision win
"I'm going to go with Steve Erceg here... I think he's going to outdamage Schnell across a decision"
LOSS vs Matheus Nicolau
KO (punches) R2 1:44 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matheus Nicolau 2 32 of 42 76% 40 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Matt Schnell 0 20 of 59 33% 29 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matheus Nicolau 1 19 of 27 70% 19 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Matt Schnell 0 14 of 43 32% 14 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Matheus Nicolau 1 13 of 15 86% 21 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:36
Matt Schnell 0 6 of 16 37% 15 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matheus Nicolau 32 of 42 76% 23 of 31 6 of 7 3 of 4 18 of 25 0 of 0 14 of 17
Matt Schnell 20 of 59 33% 16 of 50 3 of 7 1 of 2 20 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matheus Nicolau 19 of 27 70% 13 of 19 3 of 4 3 of 4 12 of 18 0 of 0 7 of 9
Matt Schnell 14 of 43 32% 12 of 37 1 of 4 1 of 2 14 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Matheus Nicolau 13 of 15 86% 10 of 12 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 7 0 of 0 7 of 8
Matt Schnell 6 of 16 37% 4 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Matheus Nicolau vs. Matt Schnell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nicolau (-380), Schnell (+310)

Round 1
As the flyweight division keeps churning out rematch after rematch for Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno, contenders has started to emerge and cement themselves in the division once that logjam finally ends. Both Nicolau (18-2-1, 6-1 UFC) and the cleanly shaven Schnell (16-6, 1 NC; 6-4, 1 NC UFC) aim to upset the apple cart and become the next possible challenger, and a place among the top five in the weight class might be for the taking here. The 125ers touch gloves while referee Keith Peterson laces his nonsenseless running shoes, and instead Schnell starts off the fight with instant aggression. Schnell throws a kick and spins around to reset when it misses, and Nicolau is relegated to outside movement. Schnell pushes in with a low kick, and Nicolau eventually responds with one as Schnell swipes at him with two punches. Schnell looks to get on the inside with short left hooks, and Nicolau retreats. The crowd has already grown restless less than two minutes in due to the lack of activity from either fighter. Nicolau kicks the body, and Schnell comes out swinging with four punches that mostly come up hitting air. The Brazilian gets off a single low kick, and the short punches that Schnell has landed have marked up the temple of his opponent. Nicolau darts for with a left hand, and Schnell takes it on the chin and continues to cut Nicolau off. Out of nowhere, Nicolau rushes in with a left hook that knocks Schnell over, and he leaps on top to try to finish the job with elbows, Schnell gathers his thoughts and explodes back to his feet, and Nicolau aims another left hand on the dome. The Brazilian kicks low while Schnell blinks it out, and he dings Schnell with two massive punches as Schnell bears down on him. Schnell gets off four punches after dodging a home-run left hook, and Nicolau spins with a back kick and turns around to kick the side. Nicolau slaps a single calf kick home, and he circles away until the bell sounds and the crowd hammers them with boos.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau

Round 2
They touch gloves to start off the round, and Schnell is a little more aggressive as he comes out faster towards his opponent. This requires Nicolau to move away quicker as well, and Schnell cannot quite pin him down. Nicolau steps in with a left hand like the last round, and this would have likely dropped Schnell again but for Nicolau’s simultaneous tackle to push Schnell to the canvas. Schnell closes his guard, with his wits about him again, and Nicolau lands a few shots before bailing on the position and standing up. Schnell advances, and once more he walks into a blistering left hand that dumps him to the ground. “The Danger” is in the danger zone, but he wills himself back into the fight and jumps back up once more. Schnell looks to get one back, and he wings a looping left hand.
As he does, Nicolau beats him to the punch with an overhand right that clonks his foe on the side of his head and puts Schnell down, likely once and for all. Nicolau leaps down to pummel the grounded Schnell, with powerful and unrelenting punches to the side of the head until Schnell collapses to his stomach.
This is the sign that Peterson needs to intervene, as Schnell is done and possibly out after a rough go of it tonight. The Brazilian flyweight contender has now won six in a row, including four straight inside the Octagon, and he is in prime position for a top fight in his division.

The Official Result
Matheus Nicolau def. Matt Schnell R2 1:44 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau as the more well-rounded fighter. He notes Nicolau has technical striking and competent grappling, while Schnell is a tough counter-striker with slick BJJ but struggles to get takedowns. He acknowledges Schnell's incredible comeback win but says he can't assume Schnell will rise from the dead every fight. He will wait for prop bets.

Will wait for prop bets
"I'm gonna go with Nikolai here because yo I can't just assume match now is going to rise from the dead in every single fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Big Brady is confident in Nicolau, citing Schnell's poor chin (finished five times) and Nicolau's power (five knockdowns in UFC) and excellent takedown defense (93%). He expects Schnell to fight recklessly and get knocked out in the first round, though he notes Nicolau hasn't finished anyone in the UFC recently but believes the finish is very live.

Nicolau wins by KO/TKO or submission, round 1
"I think he runs through matchnell here... I think he finishes his match now I'll say in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Cody picks Nicolau but strongly dislikes the -380 line. He highlights Nicolau's low output and close fights, and Schnell's chin but also his volume. He thinks the line is trappy and sees Schnell as a live dog.

"I think I'm gonna still go with Nikola just don't like that line"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Daniel Levi picks Nicolau, citing his better boxing technique, Jiu-Jitsu, and maturity compared to Schnell. He notes Schnell's chin is a weakness and that Nicolau will either finish or ride out a decision. He is not interested at the minus-400 price.

"I'm going Matthias Nicola I'm just not interested at this prize"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

The host picks Nicolau to win inside the distance, noting that Schnell has durability issues and Nicolau has enough power to finish him. He is wary of the minus 365 moneyline but likes the under 2.5 rounds or Nicolau inside the distance. He acknowledges Schnell is often overlooked but believes Nicolau will get his hand raised.

under 2.5 rounds; Nicolau inside the distance
"I think Nicolau has enough power in his hands to put down and out a guy like Schnell so the under two and a half currently around that minus 110 range"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

Paul picks Nicolau but is hesitant due to the price. He notes Nicolau's low output and close decisions, and Schnell's chin issues. He thinks Nicolau will win but won't bet it, and sees value on Schnell as a dog.

"I'll pick nicolao but yeah I'm not gonna be betting this whatsoever Snell has like the the chin issues in the past wouldn't be shocked to see that happen"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matheus Nicolau

The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau, considering him underrated. He notes Nicolau has beaten higher-level opponents like David Dvorak and Tim Elliott, while Schnell has taken damage and had close fights. He predicts Nicolau will find a finish in the second round with a body-head combo.

Nicolau by KO (round 2)
"I'm gonna go Matthias Nicola I think he's pretty underrated"
WIN vs Sumudaerji
Technical Submission (triangle choke) R2 4:24 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Schnell 0 47 of 81 58% 79 of 120 2 of 3 66% 2 1 2:40
Sumudaerji 1 58 of 83 69% 67 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 2 2:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Schnell 0 13 of 29 44% 27 of 46 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:03
Sumudaerji 0 19 of 23 82% 28 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:19
2 Matt Schnell 0 34 of 52 65% 52 of 74 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:37
Sumudaerji 1 39 of 60 65% 39 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Schnell 47 of 81 58% 36 of 70 5 of 5 6 of 6 16 of 40 9 of 12 22 of 29
Sumudaerji 58 of 83 69% 37 of 61 10 of 11 11 of 11 35 of 53 13 of 19 10 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Schnell 13 of 29 44% 8 of 24 1 of 1 4 of 4 8 of 20 0 of 0 5 of 9
Sumudaerji 19 of 23 82% 5 of 9 5 of 5 9 of 9 13 of 16 0 of 0 6 of 7
2 Matt Schnell 34 of 52 65% 28 of 46 4 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 20 9 of 12 17 of 20
Sumudaerji 39 of 60 65% 32 of 52 5 of 6 2 of 2 22 of 37 13 of 19 4 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Su Mudaerji vs. Matt Schnell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Su Mudaerji (-260), Schnell (+220)

Round 1
This upcoming 125-pound matchup will almost certainly give referee Jacob Montalvo a good workout with the movement that Schnell (15-6, 1 NC; 5-4, 1 NC UFC) and his Chinese counterpart Mudaerji (16-4, 3-1 UFC) employ. This fast-paced fight between finish-friendly and fleet of foot flyweights is first friendly as the fighters’ fists meet. Mudaerji starts with a chopping low kick that surprises Schnell, and it stops Schnell from landing a pair of punches he intends to smack Mudaerji with. Schnell goes after a few leg kicks of his own, and Mudaerji answers with two more. Mudaerji circles on the outside and slaps away a front kick, and he gets countered with a left hook when aiming a kick. The leg kicks continue to come, and Schnell checks one and points at his opponent. Mudaerji is not slowed from striking with these, and Schnell is having difficulty pinning him down. Schnell ducks a punch and changes levels to hit a takedown. In an instant, Schnell moves right to full mount, and he starts releasing heavy right hands and elbows. Mudaerji turns to his knees and allows Schnell to take his back. Mudaerji turns with all of his might, and he manages to move through the tight body triangle and claim top position. Mudaerji holds his hand on Schnell’s mouth to disrupt the breathing, and Schnell closes his guard tight when he cannot toss his legs up in pursuit of a triangle. Schnell bucks his opponent off of him, and Mudaerji climbs down into the guard and straight into a triangle choke. When Mudaerji moves his way out of the position, Schnell grabs the arm and shoulder to hunt for an omoplata. Mudaerji lifts Schnell all the way up and powerbombs him to break the grip, but Schnell winds up on top. “Danger” puts Schnell in the Danger Zone with vicious ground-and-pound, and he shakes Mudaerji up but takes a few hacking elbows from Mudaerji off his back. Schnell stacks Mudaerji up and scores a single punch before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Schnell

Round 2
Mudaerji comes out throwing fire, and an inside low kick slides up into Schnell’s cup. Schnell drops to a knee, and Montalvo calls time to allow him to recover for about a minute. Mudaerji is warned through a translator, and the two flyweights get back to it. They start throwing fire, and Mudaerji clips Schnell and nearly drops Schnell to his knees. Schnell gathers himself but is still off-balance, as he is taking punishment from the Chinese fighter. The left hand from Mudaerji nails Schnell, and Schnell replies with a leg kick that trips Mudaerji up. When back on his feet again, Mudaerji splits the guard with a straight left hand that stuns Schnell. Mudaerji celebrates this by firing off another, and this one puts Schnell down on the canvas. Schnell looks to turn things around with a takedown effort, but Mudaerji backs off and lets him back up so that he can continue bombing. Mudaerji rails Schnell with a brutal elbow, and Schnell is hurt badly and continues to take punishment. Mudaerji unloads with impunity, throwing punches, knees and elbows, and Schnell is bent over and very possibly out on his feet. Montalvo is watching on closely, and when Schnell is nearly at the end of his rope, he fires off a right hand that shakes Mudaerji up. Mudaerji continues to work Schnell over, and Schnell eats the strikes and counters effectively to blast Mudaerji. It is now Mudaerji who is on the rocks, and when Mudaerji overswings, Schnell takes him down and moves straight into mount. Schnell drops down an elbow, and commentator Daniel Cormier shrieks with a sound that echoes through the arena. Schnell batters Mudaerji with unanswered strikes, punching and elbowing Mudaerji’s face off, and Mudaerji is bloodied and beaten. Mudaerji somehow keeps his wits about him to flip Schnell over, but Schnell throws his legs up for a triangle choke.
Mudaerji starts slugging from on top, but danger danger, high voltage, “Danger” locks down that choke and Mudaerji is in dire trouble. Schnell slashes from his back to rip Mudaerji’s face open and cause blood to splatter all around them. Schnell adjusts the triangle choke up high, and he pulls down on the neck to completely secure it. Mudaerji is still with it and ready to keep fighting…until he isn’t anymore, as he goes out on his shield completely, blood still leaking from his now-unconscious person.
Montalvo recognizes that Mudaerji is sleeping on the job and steps in to break them up, awarding Schnell the absolutely incredible comeback and putting a stamp on what should go down as an instant contender for the best round of the year. What a terrific fight, one that went everywhere and had something for everybody. The mere write-up of this battle does not remotely do it justice, and this is a must-see match that also could be contention for “Fight of the Year” as well. Outstanding.

The Official Result
Matt Schnell def. Su Mudaerji R2 4:24 via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

Angelo picks Sumudaerji, citing his forward pressure and volume. He notes Schnell's counter-striking and BJJ, but believes Sumudaerji's style will impose itself. He thinks the fight should be closer than the odds suggest and considers a plus 3.5 bet on Schnell.

considers plus 3.5 bet on Schnell
"super energy is the pick but this is another this might be a solid three and a half bet again"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

Big Brady picks Sumudaerji to win by knockout, likely in the second round. He states that Sumudaerji is the better striker and more durable, while Schnell has been knocked out multiple times. He notes that Schnell could win if he wrestles, but he doesn't expect Schnell to do so. He predicts a knockout finish.

knockout in round 2
"i like madaraji to win this fight by knockout um what round uh i think he does knock him out at some point here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Matt Schnell

Cody picks Schnell as an underdog, arguing that Sumudaerji's four losses are all by submission and he has not faced a grappler since his debut. He notes Schnell's improved chin and grappling, including submissions off his back. Cody believes if the fight hits the ground, Schnell has a big advantage, and the -270 line on Sumudaerji is too high given his unproven ground game.

Schnell by submission (plus 800)
"minus 270 is the thing that a younger cody would have been like he's going to knock out chanel because chelsea so chinny i would have i would have and at 270 he's probably higher up on the tickets"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

Daniel Levi picks Sumudaerji, viewing it as a prospect test. He notes Sumudaerji's talent and improvements after a long layoff, while Schnell has durability issues and has been knocked out before. Levi expects Sumudaerji to win, possibly by finish, but acknowledges Schnell's guillotine threat and the question of Sumudaerji's ceiling.

possible first-round finish
"i'm gonna go sumidargi i think that this is a prospect match up where they are trying to test out sue"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

Paul picks Sumudaerji, believing his power and striking will be too much for Schnell's suspect chin. He notes that Sumudaerji has knocked out opponents quickly and that Schnell has been knocked out multiple times. However, he admits the -270 line is steep and that he is not betting it himself, but he expects Sumudaerji to win by KO in the first round.

Sumudaerji by KO, Sumudaerji round 1 (plus 320)
"sumidarji sumog darjee by naco sumidairji round one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

The MMA Guru picks Sumudaerji over Matt Schnell, citing Schnell's weak chin and poor submission defense. He notes Sumudaerji's elusiveness and range, and believes he will TKO Schnell in the second round. He also mentions Schnell's recent loss to Brandon Royval and his tendency to get finished in spectacular fashion.

predicts second-round TKO
"i'm going to be going with sumaduergy younger guy longer reach uses it well um i think he's got pop in his hands as well"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Angelo picks Brandon Royval, citing his forward pressure and sneaky grappling as the difference. He notes that both fighters are willing to bang but Royval is a better pure grappler. He expects a potential fight of the night.

"roy val's forward pressure and sneaky grappling will be the difference here so roy val is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Big Brady picks Brandon Royval to win by first-round knockout. He believes this is a nightmare matchup for Schnell because Royval will force a brawl, and Schnell has a history of being knocked out (by Font, Sandoval, Pantoja). Schnell has changed his style to be more cautious, but Royval's pressure will drag him into a war. Royval has the striking advantage, durability, and dangerous ground game. Schnell is not a strong offensive wrestler, so he cannot exploit Royval's poor takedown defense. Brady expects Royval to finish Schnell in brutal fashion in the first round.

first round knockout
"I think royval runs through him I think roy val finishes matt schnell in the very first round if match nell's not gonna come out here and wrestle which I don't think he will I think he's in some serious trouble"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Cody picks Brandon Royval, noting that Schnell's chin is suspect and Royval's unorthodox striking and grappling are at a higher level. He points out that Royval has wins over Tim Elliott and Kai Kara-France, while Schnell has beaten lower-level opposition. Cody believes Royval can win standing or on the ground, and expects a stoppage. He is confident in Royval as one of his key plays.

"i think he's the rightful guy minus 240 don't mind it i'm gonna play him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Daniel Levi picks Brandon Royval confidently, though he does not bet due to the high price. He likes Royval's pace, pressure, and opportunistic submissions. He notes Schnell is technically sound but lacks durability and takedown ability. He considers a KO prop for Royval at +460 but does not pull the trigger.

Daniel considers a Royval KO prop at +460 but does not bet. He passes on betting altogether.
"My pick is Royvall. I'm passing all together."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Brandon Royval

The host picks Royval to win but prefers betting the under 2.5 rounds at -145. He highlights Royval's chaotic style that overwhelms opponents, using the Kai Kara-France fight as an example. He notes Schnell is technically better but will struggle with Royval's pace and unpredictability. He acknowledges Royval leaves himself vulnerable to submissions, but expects the fight to end inside the distance, likely with Royval winning. He is concerned about Royval's price at -235 and prefers the under.

under 2.5 rounds -145; fight doesn't go to decision -170
"the pick is still gonna be roy val it's just too difficult for me to trust him at minus 235 minus 240 considering how he fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

Paul picks Brandon Royval and is also interested in the under 2.5 rounds. He notes that Schnell has chin issues and Royval's volume and pace could clip him. Paul thinks Royval can get a finish, but also acknowledges that Royval's own pace could lead to him wilting. He likes the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop and plans to parlay it with the Cerrone-Lauzon under.

under 2.5 rounds at -145; fight doesn't go to decision at -170
"i'm picking roy val as well to get the job done um matt schnell i i don't think i've ever picked him though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Brandon Royval

The MMA Guru picks Brandon Royval, citing his wildness and finishing ability. He notes Royval has good submissions and KO power, and believes he will bait Schnell into a scrap and catch him. He criticizes Schnell's chin and predictable style. He predicts a first-round TKO, possibly via spinning elbow.

"i'm gonna trust in brandon royval's wildness and his ko ability in the flyweight division to get this one done over match nell"