Career Averages - Loopy Godinez
Career Averages - Ariane Carnelossi
Loopy Godinez
Ariane Carnelossi
Loopy Godinez - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 56 of 77 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 5:12 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 18 of 25 | 72% | 25 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 50 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 17 of 22 | 77% | 23 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 6 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:33 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 12 of 26 | 46% | 4 of 14 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 7 |
| Loopy Godinez | 18 of 25 | 72% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 7 of 13 | 53% | 4 of 7 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 |
| Loopy Godinez | 17 of 22 | 77% | 15 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 13 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 5 of 13 | 38% | 0 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tatiana Suarez despite finding her boring, citing her dominant wrestling and predictability. He acknowledges Loopy Godinez's skills and striking but criticizes her low fight IQ and poor decisions. He believes Loopy could win if she sticks to striking but expects her to make mistakes and end up on her back.
Big Brady is worried about Tatiana Suarez after her poor performances against Zhang Weili and Amanda Lemos, noting she gassed and couldn't get dominant positions. He thinks Loopy Godinez has good takedown defense and superior striking with volume and boxing. He expects a close split decision and leans Godinez.
Cody picks Godinez, citing Suarez's injuries, layoffs, and declining wrestling. He thinks Godinez's scrambling, boxing, and volume will earn her a decision win.
Connor picks Suarez over three rounds, citing her superior wrestling and size. He notes that Suarez will get Godinez down and control her, as Godinez is also a wrestler but not at Suarez's level. He mentions that the fight should be five rounds to see if Godinez can survive and force Suarez to gas, but over three rounds it's a foregone conclusion.
Daniel Vreeland picks Loopy Godinez as an underdog, believing that Tatiana Suarez is in decline after injuries and poor performances. He thinks Godinez's wrestling can keep the fight standing and that she has better striking. He acknowledges Godinez's questionable in-fight decisions but sees value at plus money.
Daniel believes Suarez is on a decline due to injuries and age, while Godinez has the wrestling to keep the fight standing and better hands. He picks Godinez to win by decision.
James picks the underdog Godinez, fading Suarez for the third time. He believes Suarez has declined and that Godinez can win a striking battle, though he acknowledges Suarez's size and fight IQ advantages.
Suarez is the best wrestler in the division and should dominate Godinez on the ground. Godinez has a slight striking edge but her wrestling is not at Suarez's level. Suarez's size and reach advantage will help her close distance for takedowns. She can grind out a decision or find a submission. The line is surprisingly low for Suarez, offering value.
Paul picks Suarez, believing her wrestling is still superior and she can control Godinez. He acknowledges her decline but thinks she has one more good performance.
The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez over Tatiana Suarez, though he admits it's a questionable pick. He likes Godinez's scrambles and grappling defense, and thinks Suarez's stand-up is abysmal. He believes Godinez can eke out a 29-28 decision as a slight underdog, citing Suarez's injury history and potential 'loser energy' from her husband Patchy Mix.
Zane picks Suarez, agreeing that she will dominate early and Godinez won't be able to finish her. He notes that Suarez's wrestling is too strong and Godinez's boxing isn't good enough to keep her off. He also comments that the odds are too slim and should be wider in Suarez's favor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 90 of 287 | 31% | 97 of 297 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 107 of 213 | 50% | 119 of 226 | 1 of 14 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 18 of 83 | 21% | 18 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 40 of 71 | 56% | 41 of 72 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 15 of 63 | 23% | 22 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 31 of 50 | 62% | 40 of 59 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 57 of 141 | 40% | 57 of 142 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 36 of 92 | 39% | 38 of 95 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 90 of 287 | 31% | 58 of 242 | 21 of 31 | 11 of 14 | 87 of 279 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 107 of 213 | 50% | 91 of 195 | 12 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 94 of 195 | 11 of 16 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 18 of 83 | 21% | 13 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 17 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 40 of 71 | 56% | 31 of 62 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 39 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 15 of 63 | 23% | 11 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 60 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 31 of 50 | 62% | 26 of 45 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 40 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 57 of 141 | 40% | 34 of 112 | 19 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 56 of 137 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 36 of 92 | 39% | 34 of 88 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 85 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes Godinez has a giant grappling advantage and is the better fighter technically, but her fight IQ is questionable. He assumes she will make the right decisions and take Pepto before the fight. He thinks Andrade is a brute force brawler with limited skills, so Godinez should win if she doesn't do dumb things.
Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by second-round submission. He notes Andrade has been inconsistent and looks awful on the ground recently, with poor takedown defense. He thinks Godinez's path to victory is to mix in takedowns and grapple, as Andrade has been submitted many times. He worries about Godinez's fight IQ but trusts her to wrestle here. He mentions Godinez has a couple of submissions in the UFC and is working on her grappling.
The host expresses disappointment in Godinez's development but thinks she can handle Andrade's aggressive striking. He predicts Godinez will land enough takedowns in the first two rounds to grind out a decision, surviving the third round.
The Guru picks Jéssica Andrade to win by TKO in round two. He believes Andrade will be too overwhelming with her punches for Loopy Godinez. The Guru notes that Godinez is easily hittable and has had close fights with lower-level competition. He doesn't see Godinez finishing Andrade or taking her down and submitting her. Despite Andrade's recent losses, the Guru thinks she is a step above Godinez's level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 84 of 150 | 56% | 114 of 184 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 7:30 |
| Julia Polastri | 0 | 87 of 151 | 57% | 117 of 186 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 26 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Julia Polastri | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 24 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 26 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:16 |
| Julia Polastri | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 58 of 101 | 57% | 62 of 105 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Julia Polastri | 0 | 58 of 93 | 62% | 68 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loopy Godinez | 84 of 150 | 56% | 71 of 135 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 75 of 141 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 |
| Julia Polastri | 87 of 151 | 57% | 58 of 112 | 14 of 23 | 15 of 16 | 78 of 135 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loopy Godinez | 11 of 22 | 50% | 8 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julia Polastri | 14 of 25 | 56% | 4 of 11 | 5 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | |
| 2 | Loopy Godinez | 15 of 27 | 55% | 12 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Julia Polastri | 15 of 33 | 45% | 7 of 21 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | |
| 3 | Loopy Godinez | 58 of 101 | 57% | 51 of 93 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 51 of 94 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Julia Polastri | 58 of 93 | 62% | 47 of 80 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 54 of 89 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Connor picks Godinez but is hesitant, noting that Polastri is a powerful bully who could pressure Godinez into hesitation. He thinks Godinez needs to be the aggressor and use her wrestling to control the fight. He compares her to Sam Hughes in needing consistency and determination.
Zane picks Godinez but shares Connor's worry about her confidence. He notes that Godinez has struggled against pressure and that Polastri is a dangerous, powerful striker. However, he thinks Godinez can be busier and more successful at range, and that Polastri's lack of range control will allow Godinez to wrestle effectively.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 72 of 203 | 35% | 103 of 235 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:45 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 67 of 146 | 45% | 72 of 152 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 1 | 1:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 25 of 67 | 37% | 49 of 92 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 17 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 24 of 68 | 35% | 27 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 24 of 55 | 43% | 24 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:45 | |
| 3 | Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 23 of 68 | 33% | 27 of 72 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 28 of 53 | 52% | 31 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern | 72 of 203 | 35% | 61 of 188 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 66 of 195 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 67 of 146 | 45% | 45 of 116 | 16 of 23 | 6 of 7 | 58 of 136 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mackenzie Dern | 25 of 67 | 37% | 22 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 24 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 15 of 38 | 39% | 13 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mackenzie Dern | 24 of 68 | 35% | 20 of 62 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 23 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 24 of 55 | 43% | 18 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mackenzie Dern | 23 of 68 | 33% | 19 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 63 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 28 of 53 | 52% | 14 of 36 | 12 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 47 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Godinez but is hesitant due to her notoriously low fight IQ. He thinks she is the better fighter everywhere except BJJ, with better striking, wrestling, and athleticism. He notes Dern's poor takedown accuracy and reliance on toughness. He bet only a quarter unit because he doesn't trust Godinez.
Big Brady is taking another underdog, citing Godinez's superior wrestling and boxing on the feet. He notes Dern has poor takedown accuracy (15%) and cannot take Godinez down, while Godinez should keep the fight standing and outpoint Dern. However, he admits he doesn't trust Godinez either, calling it a weird fight.
Cody picks Loopy Godinez, citing her superior boxing and wrestling. He notes that Dern has poor takedown accuracy and has been roughed up on the feet recently. Cody thinks Godinez can stuff takedowns and win a volume decision. However, he acknowledges Dern's ability to create scrambles and capitalize on mistakes, so he's not fully confident. He mentions that Godinez is a slight underdog and that women's MMA is volatile.
Daniel picks Dern, citing her toughness and ability to overcome adversity. He criticizes Godinez's fight IQ and tendency to abandon game plans. He believes Dern will gas pedal Godinez and be the tougher fighter, despite potential striking exchanges.
Godinez should avoid the clinch and use footwork to out-strike Dern, stuffing takedowns. She should land better damage and win on the scorecards.
Paul picks Loopy Godinez, noting that she is the better striker and can avoid Dern's grappling. He thinks Godinez's volume and takedown defense should be enough to win a decision. Paul acknowledges Dern's scrambling ability but believes Godinez can stay away and win on the feet. He also mentions that Godinez went the distance with Virna Jandiroba, which looks good in hindsight.
The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez over Mackenzie Dern, citing Dern's lack of seriousness and Godinez's activity and better striking. He thinks Godinez can scramble and keep the fight on the feet, where she has a technical advantage. He notes Godinez has good takedown defense and works her way back up. He mentions she might be an underdog and likes that.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 30 of 108 | 27% | 86 of 180 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 3 | 1 | 6:35 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 38 of 95 | 40% | 50 of 116 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 12 of 45 | 26% | 18 of 53 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 5 of 21 | 23% | 38 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:31 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 15 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:57 | |
| 3 | Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 13 of 42 | 30% | 30 of 64 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 3 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virna Jandiroba | 30 of 108 | 27% | 27 of 100 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 106 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 38 of 95 | 40% | 25 of 79 | 11 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 30 of 82 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virna Jandiroba | 12 of 45 | 26% | 12 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 13 of 34 | 38% | 9 of 28 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Virna Jandiroba | 5 of 21 | 23% | 5 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 9 of 26 | 34% | 6 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Virna Jandiroba | 13 of 42 | 30% | 10 of 35 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Loopy Godinez | 16 of 35 | 45% | 10 of 28 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 30 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Loopy Godinez, believing she is better everywhere, including wrestling. He notes Virna Jandiroba is a grinder with a one-dimensional game plan of shooting takedowns. He thinks Godinez's striking improvements and defensive wrestling will be enough to win, though he acknowledges Jandiroba's relentless takedown attempts could be a problem.
Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by decision, but expresses concern about her fight IQ. He believes Godinez should keep the fight standing to avoid Jandiroba's dangerous BJJ, but worries she might wrestle unnecessarily. He thinks Godinez is the much better striker and should stuff takedowns, but is not fully confident due to her past poor decisions.
Cody believes Godinez is the better boxer and wrestler, with superior cardio and durability. He thinks Jandiroba's one-dimensional grappling won't be enough, and even if she gets takedowns, Godinez will survive and win rounds with striking volume.
Daniel Vreeland picks Loopy Godinez, citing her superior striking, power, and athleticism. He thinks she can keep the fight standing and use a sprawl-and-brawl game plan to avoid Jandiroba's dangerous jiu-jitsu. He notes Jandiroba's willingness to stand and trade, which plays into Godinez's hands. He predicts Godinez by decision.
Godinez has improved striking and wrestling advantage. Jandiroba's hands are poor; she got outboxed by McKenzie Dern and Amanda Lemos. Godinez should keep the fight standing and land punches, potentially earning her first UFC knockout. The plus 750 KO prop is worth a sprinkle. Godinez controls pace and location.
Paul sees Godinez as the more versatile fighter, able to win on the feet or with wrestling. He notes Jandiroba's aging and limited striking, and expects Godinez to outwork her over three rounds, likely by decision.
The host picks Loopy Godinez, stating he never picks Virna Jandiroba. He believes Godinez can keep the fight on the feet and has a boxing and grit advantage. He thinks Godinez's grappling is good enough to defend takedowns and that she will win a decision, possibly 29-28. He notes that close decisions tend to go against Jandiroba.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 84 of 224 | 37% | 91 of 232 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 98 of 221 | 44% | 101 of 225 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 22 of 61 | 36% | 24 of 64 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 23 of 73 | 31% | 23 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 31 of 90 | 34% | 32 of 91 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 36 of 72 | 50% | 38 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 31 of 73 | 42% | 35 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 39 of 76 | 51% | 40 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loopy Godinez | 84 of 224 | 37% | 68 of 197 | 8 of 11 | 8 of 16 | 78 of 218 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 98 of 221 | 44% | 81 of 200 | 15 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 85 of 207 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loopy Godinez | 22 of 61 | 36% | 17 of 50 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 8 | 20 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 23 of 73 | 31% | 18 of 67 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 69 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Loopy Godinez | 31 of 90 | 34% | 24 of 80 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 29 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 36 of 72 | 50% | 29 of 63 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 32 of 67 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Loopy Godinez | 31 of 73 | 42% | 27 of 67 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 29 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tabatha Ricci | 39 of 76 | 51% | 34 of 70 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 34 of 71 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Godinez, emphasizing her wrestling and size advantage. He criticizes Ricci's striking and takedowns, believing Godinez can defend takedowns and win on the feet. He is not insanely confident but thinks Godinez gets it done.
Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez by decision. He believes Godinez is the better striker with good volume and power, and also the better wrestler with strong takedown defense. He thinks Godinez can dictate where the fight takes place and win striking exchanges even if she doesn't wrestle. He notes Godinez's past fight IQ issues but doesn't think they'll matter here.
Cody picks Godinez, citing her boxing volume, pressure, and improved ring IQ. He notes she has size and strength advantages, and that Ricci's wrestling likely won't be enough. He thinks Godinez wins on volume and pressure, though he's not confident enough to bet heavily.
Godinez's wrestling background should allow her to keep the fight upright where she has the striking advantage. Ricci will need to take it to the ground to have success, but Godinez can control where the fight takes place. The line has moved from -120/-130 to -170, which makes sense, but he would prefer a better line around -130 to bet. Prediction is Godinez by decision.
Paul agrees, noting Godinez's striking advantage and that Ricci's wrestling will be negated. He thinks Godinez will win on volume, though he acknowledges the New York commission can be unpredictable. He sees Godinez as the rightful favorite.
The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez, citing her advantage in standup and aggression. He thinks Godinez will force a high pace that Ricci is not comfortable with, and notes that Godinez is tough and throws punches like a man. He predicts a decision win for Godinez.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loopy Godinez | 1 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 37 of 51 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 6 | 0 | 6:29 |
| Elise Reed | 0 | 3 of 13 | 23% | 34 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loopy Godinez | 1 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 14 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 5 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Elise Reed | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 23 of 31 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:50 |
| Elise Reed | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 29 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loopy Godinez | 21 of 31 | 67% | 15 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
| Elise Reed | 3 of 13 | 23% | 0 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loopy Godinez | 6 of 11 | 54% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Elise Reed | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Loopy Godinez | 15 of 20 | 75% | 12 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
| Elise Reed | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Lupita Godinez as the better fighter, citing her size, strength, and wrestling. He acknowledges her inconsistency and notes that the version that fought Cynthia Calvillo would lose to Elise Reed. He believes Godinez should win but considers the odds too wide to bet due to her unreliability.
Big Brady picks Godinez but expresses concern about her fight IQ and recent reluctance to wrestle. He notes that if Godinez wrestles, she should dominate easily, as Reed has poor ground game and takedown defense. However, if Godinez strikes, the fight could be closer. He predicts Godinez will eventually take the fight to the mat and submit Reed in the second round.
Cody picks Godinez, emphasizing her size, strength, and wrestling advantage. He notes Reed's poor takedown defense and Godinez's ability to win even if she strikes. He expects Godinez to control the fight and possibly get a submission, but thinks a decision is also likely.
Daniel Levi is confident in Lupita Godinez, citing her wrestling advantage as Elise Reed has been taken down in every UFC fight. He notes Godinez's high output in her last fight and believes she can win on the feet as well, but the path of least resistance is through takedowns. Levi expects Godinez to dominate and sees this as a showcase for her improved skills.
Godinez has a tremendous wrestling advantage over Reed, who has been submitted in losses to grapplers. Godinez's striking is underrated, but she should focus on takedowns and top control. Reed alternates wins and losses and is coming off a win, so she's due for a loss. I expect Godinez to drag the fight to the ground and finish inside the distance.
Paul picks Godinez confidently, noting she can win anywhere but should wrestle. He mentions her inconsistency in game plans but believes she is a massive step up in competition for Reed. He sees a first-round submission as very possible if she wrestles.
The MMA Guru picks Lupita Godinez over Elise Reed, calling it a mismatch. He notes Godinez's wins over better competition like Emily Ducote and Cynthia Calvillo, while Reed's recent win was over Jin Yu Frey. He believes Godinez's boxing is crisper and she mixes in takedowns better, making her more versatile.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 112 of 270 | 41% | 117 of 275 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Emily Ducote | 0 | 132 of 246 | 53% | 133 of 248 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 34 of 81 | 41% | 34 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Emily Ducote | 0 | 49 of 81 | 60% | 49 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 43 of 102 | 42% | 43 of 102 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Emily Ducote | 0 | 43 of 77 | 55% | 43 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 35 of 87 | 40% | 40 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Emily Ducote | 0 | 40 of 88 | 45% | 41 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loopy Godinez | 112 of 270 | 41% | 71 of 214 | 21 of 33 | 20 of 23 | 106 of 262 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Emily Ducote | 132 of 246 | 53% | 106 of 214 | 12 of 18 | 14 of 14 | 121 of 232 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loopy Godinez | 34 of 81 | 41% | 19 of 61 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 32 of 79 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Emily Ducote | 49 of 81 | 60% | 39 of 71 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 46 of 78 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Loopy Godinez | 43 of 102 | 42% | 28 of 81 | 8 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 40 of 98 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Emily Ducote | 43 of 77 | 55% | 36 of 68 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 36 of 67 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Loopy Godinez | 35 of 87 | 40% | 24 of 72 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 34 of 85 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Emily Ducote | 40 of 88 | 45% | 31 of 75 | 4 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 39 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Emily Ducote because she is a former Invicta champion with slick counter-striking, power, and good wrestling. He criticizes Lupita Godinez for poor decision-making and a miserable track record on short notice. He has a small 0.25-unit bet on Ducote at +119, expecting the line to flip to favor Ducote.
Big Brady picks Lupita Godinez to win by decision, but with a caveat. He notes Godinez is a phenomenal wrestler but has recently fallen in love with her hands, which makes no sense to him. If she wrestles, she wins easily; if she doesn't, it could be close. He expects her to mix in takedowns and win a decision, but he's not fully confident in her game plan.
Cody sees this as a close striking match where both women have wrestling but may not use it. He favors Ducote's striking volume and power, and questions Godinez's fight IQ after she failed to wrestle against Angela Hill. He expects a decision win for Ducote.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Ducote but with low confidence. He thinks Godinez won't push a pace that makes Ducote uncomfortable, leaving Ducote as the sharper striker. However, he notes that Godinez is capable of a complete performance and that Ducote hasn't shown she can handle a high-level all-around fight. He also mentions that if Godinez accepts taking hard counters and tries to break Ducote, it could work, but he suspects Ducote will persuade her not to.
Daniel Levi picks Emily Ducote as a slight underdog. He thinks Godinez is still developing and has shown vulnerabilities, while Ducote has better volume and striking. He envisions the fight being close, possibly 1-1 going into the third, where Ducote's experience and output could earn her a decision. He notes Ducote landed 116 significant strikes in her UFC debut and believes she can stuff takedowns and chip away over three rounds.
The host picks Lupita Godinez, believing her wrestling will be the difference maker. He thinks Godinez has slicker boxing and can chain takedowns behind combinations. He expects a decision win, though notes Ducate is a good kickboxer and the fight could be close.
Paul agrees, noting that Godinez's win over Calvillo was close and could have gone either way. He thinks Ducote is more dynamic on the feet and that the line offers value. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Ducote.
The MMA Guru picks Lupita Godinez, citing her versatility as a Swiss Army knife compared to Ducote's striking-focused style. He likes the quick turnaround and believes Godinez will mix in grappling to push a pace. He notes Godinez's wins over Ariane Carnelossi and Loma Lookboonmee, the latter being a better striker than Ducote. He expects a close decision, 29-28.
Zane picks Ducote, reasoning that Godinez's pressure style may not work well against a sharp counter puncher like Ducote. He notes that Ducote has a reach advantage and can land counters when Godinez tries to swarm. However, he expresses concern about Ducote's tendency to shut down under pressure, as seen against Angela Hill, and her lackluster UFC performances. He also worries about Godinez's wrestling if she can get the fight to the ground.
Ariane Carnelossi - Fight History
The host picks Souza confidently, stating that she is a little bit better anywhere the fight takes place outside of muscular ability. He notes that Souza is a better striker and a better grappler than Carnelossi, and expects her to cruise to a comfortable decision, likely 30-27 or 29-28.
AJ believes Ketlen Souza has improved significantly since her prior loss to Carnelossi, with sharper boxing, better pressure, and cage cutting. He views Carnelossi as having stagnated, relying on power Muay Thai but lacking technical growth. AJ expects Souza to win a striking clinic, likely by decision, though a finish is possible.
Angelo picks Ketlen Souza, stating she is the better striker and grappler. He believes Souza will pressure forward, get Carnelossi to overcommit, and then secure a takedown. He notes that Souza's bad offensive takedowns are better than Carnelossi's worst takedown defense, and if it goes to the ground, Souza might get a finish.
Big Brady picks Ketlen Souza to win by decision. He notes that Souza has improved since their first fight and is better everywhere, but he has concerns about her fight IQ after her performance against Bruna Brasil where she clinched for 15 minutes instead of finishing. He sees a potential knockout or submission but leans decision.
Ketlen Souza is in her prime and has a nice jab with aggressive volume. Ariane Carnelossi is not a volume striker and wants takedowns, but Souza's takedown defense should hold. Souza will win a decision, as Carnelossi has been inactive and lost last time out.
Ketlen Souza is picked because she is the better striker with power and can grapple. Ariane Carnelossi has poor takedown defense (22%) and cannot grapple. Souza should win by submission or decision, as she has a clear advantage everywhere.
Souza is a better wrestler and grappler than Carnelossi, who hasn't won a real fight since 2021. Carnelossi's only recent win was by DQ, and she was losing that fight. Souza should control the grappling exchanges and win a decision.
Lucrative James picks Ketlen Souza to win the rematch, citing her physical and skill improvements since their 2019 fight. He notes Souza's better conditioning, improved grappling, and recent performances against higher-level competition. He believes Carnelossi's wins since then are unimpressive and that Souza will avenge her loss via decision.
Souza has improved since their first fight, showing better durability and a slicker striking approach. She can wear on Carnelossi with clinch and grappling, and should be able to take Carnelossi's biggest shots. Souza wins a close decision, though the -285 line is too steep.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talita Alencar | 0 | 60 of 100 | 60% | 79 of 122 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 2 | 0 | 6:10 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 25 of 76 | 32% | 50 of 106 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talita Alencar | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 26 of 38 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 1 of 17 | 5% | 24 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Talita Alencar | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 23 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 10 of 35 | 28% | 11 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 3 | Talita Alencar | 0 | 22 of 31 | 70% | 30 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:49 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talita Alencar | 60 of 100 | 60% | 34 of 67 | 19 of 23 | 7 of 10 | 31 of 65 | 14 of 15 | 15 of 20 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 25 of 76 | 32% | 10 of 57 | 3 of 5 | 12 of 14 | 25 of 71 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talita Alencar | 18 of 30 | 60% | 9 of 18 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 1 of 17 | 5% | 1 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 14 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Talita Alencar | 20 of 39 | 51% | 10 of 25 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 14 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 10 of 35 | 28% | 2 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Talita Alencar | 22 of 31 | 70% | 15 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 10 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 14 of 24 | 58% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alencar (-250); Carnelossi (+210)
Round 1
After a rousing series of fight cards around the world, the UFC recedes back to the Apex for half of its remaining shows this year. The first of two weekends in a row, the promotion’s headquarters—reportedly with new, revamped internal facilities even including concession stands (that are not open yet)—will play host to UFC Fight Night 263, also known as UFC Vegas 110. For the sixth time in the last eight events, women will kick off the violent festivities. Strawweights take center stage, where a loss will almost certainly save their place on the roster while a defeat does not guarantee another match in the Octagon. Alencar (6-1-1, 2-1 UFC) has reached the final bout of her initial four-fight deal, so this one will matter more than the others. She battles the returning Carnelossi (15-3, 3-2 UFC), who has only competed once in the last three years. The two will be joined in the cage by referee Mark Smith, who clocks them in as they bump fists.
Carnelossi comes out of her corner loaded for bear, and she bashes Alencar in the face right off the bat. Alencar bounces back, rebounds off the fencing and pushes out with kicks. She rushes forward behind a right hand to set up a clinch with a body lock takedown attempt, and Carnelossi muscles her around to break it up. Carnelossi scores a short strike on the break, and then walks her retreating countrywoman down. “Sorriso” has her guard up in time to block the single kicks soaring her direction, although a one-two down the pipe gets her attention. Carnelossi goes for her own level change, ultimately hitting a 115-pound wall plus the cage behind her in Alencar. Carnelossi grinds on Alencar when a single-leg effort fails, and she smacks Alencar with short but frustrating overhand rights.
Carnelossi staves off a counter trip attempt, and the two jockey for position twirled around in the tie-up. Alencar puts Carnelossi’s back to the fencing, and she knees her in the stomach when bending over for something. Carnelossi turns her about once more and gives her a few knees to think about on the other side of the equation. This continues, and Alencar is warned for grabbing the fence to keep Carnelossi stuck and has her hand slapped away a few times. Alencar ducks down in pursuit of a single-leg takedown, and she gets it for a second or two before Carnelossi pops back to her feet without issue. Carnelossi punches her way out of the clinch and meanders forwards Alencar, swinging her way until they end up clinching once more. Alencar trips Carnelossi to the floor, and Carnelossi uses her upkicks when hitting the mat to keep Alencar from climbing on top of her. Alencar drops to her knees, and Smith warns Carnelossi for what would be illegal upkicks. The horn sounds with Alencar striking from above.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Round 2
Like the previous round, Carnelossi plods directly forward to engage, no glove touch in the works. Carnelossi walks through a body kick to put her hands on her opponent, and a right hand opens a tiny cut on the bridge of Alencar’s nose. Alencar swings, and Carnelossi counters her more effectively. Alencar’s front kick is an effective weapon at keeping her foe at bay, but only for a brief time as Carnelossi tends to charge when struck with that blow. She does just that when drilled with a kick down the middle, racing after Alencar and slugging her in the face. Carnelossi ducks down and nearly takes a knee on the chin, and they proceed to bang it out up close and personally. Alencar spins with a back kick when in close proximity, and Carnelossi’s pressure is getting to her as she cannot get space to recover. Carnelossi connects with a hefty low kick that makes Alencar recoil it awkwardly, and she keeps kicking that spot.
Alencar winds up with a huge right hand while taking shots, and she grabs the back of Carnelossi’s head and drives a knee square into it. Alencar hurls Carnelossi to the floor, and she prevents Carnelossi from standing by snapping down on the back of her neck. Carnelossi still manages to force her way upright, and she remains comfortable in the clinch getting her head right after getting stunned. Carnelossi tries to drag the fight to the floor, and Alencar turns the tables and puts her down on the mat. When Carnelossi looks to get up, Alencar hangs on to a kimura that she uses to attempt to sweep. When not looking for that, she elbows Carnelossi in the side of the dome again and again. Carnelossi drops all the way down to pursue a desperate takedown, and Alencar accepts it as she has her legs laced around Carnelossi’s and looks to take her back. Alencar gets the hooks in and wraps up a rear-naked choke, fastening the short choke under the chin and pulling back. Carnelossi rolls to her side and then stomach, surviving the deep submission and likely being saved by the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Round 3
Carnelossi appears good to go to start the round despite nearly going out in the end of the previous frame, and she asserts pressure. Carnelossi kicks low to open up a right hand, and she ignores a body kick to hunt “Problem Child” down. Alencar sticks out a right hand, and Carnelossi swarms her with a combination counter. Alencar snaps out a left, but her blows are largely one-and-done while Carnelossi’s volume is giving her fits. Alencar puts three punches together to decent effect, and she fakes a level change after it to get Carnelossi to bite. They trade low kicks, and Carnelossi checks the latter and gives her another one back. As Carnelossi fearlessly walks Alencar down kicking her in the midsection, Alencar snatches the limb out of the air and trips Carnelossi to the floor. Carnelossi prevents Alencar from getting into her guard by pitching upkicks aplenty, and she even threatens briefly with an omoplata shoulder lock setup that ultimately puts her in a worse position than when she started.
Alencar lowers herself down into the side control position, where she slips right to north-south position with Carnelossi scrambling all the while. Carnelossi counters with her own single-leg shot, and Alencar steps over her and sets up an inverted triangle choke. Alencar hammers the side with elbows until Carnelossi explodes to get to her knees and push through the takedown try. Alencar shuts her down and elbows her in the side of the head until pulling guard and getting Carnelossi’s back.
With a minute left in the round, Alencar gets the body triangle secure, and she starts fishing for chokes. Alencar slides her right forearm beneath the chin, and she goes palm-to-palm but it is not crushingly tight. Alencar adjusts her grip, torqueing the choke as hard as she can, and Carnelossi lifts her arm up and dramatically taps out.
This marks the first time that “Sorriso” has been submitted since her pro debut in 2014 against Amanda Ribas. The victorious Alencar puts behind her a five-fight decision or draw stretch, and all of her stoppages remain by RNC.
The Official Result
Talita Alencar def. Ariane Carnelossi R3 4:36 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Talita Alencar, highlighting her grappling prowess and recent win over Vanessa Demopoulos. He notes Ariane Carnelossi is physically strong but lacks takedown defense and skills. He expects Alencar to get takedowns and control the fight, though he is unsure about spending $9,000 on her in DFS.
Big Brady picks Talita Alencar due to Ariane Carnelossi's terrible takedown defense (14%). He notes Alencar is not the best wrestler but attempts many takedowns and is good on top with solid ground and pound. He also mentions Alencar is a six-time BJJ world champion. The only concern is Alencar's cardio, but he believes Carnelossi will struggle. He predicts a second-round submission.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Carnelossi is very strong but stiff and awkward everywhere. He thinks Alencar's jiu-jitsu will allow her to drag Carnelossi down and control her on the ground, even if her wrestling isn't elite.
Lucrative James picks Talita Alencar, citing her superior wrestling and grappling against Ariane Carnelossi, who has poor takedown defense (14%). He believes Alencar will take Carnelossi down at will and control the fight on the ground. He notes Carnelossi's power and toughness but thinks the skill gap is too large, predicting a decision win for Alencar.
Carnelossi's strength and BJJ black belt should help her stay safe against Alencar, and she will eventually butcher Alencar on the feet to win by TKO. The host is surprised the odds are as wide as they are, implying value on Carnelossi.
The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi despite Talita Alencar being the favorite. He worries that Alencar's grappling may not be enough to get takedowns consistently, and Carnelossi's physicality and strength could neutralize Alencar's shots. He believes Carnelossi will win on damage if the fight stays standing, predicting an upset decision.
Zane picks Alencar because she is a solid jiu-jitsu fighter with good top control, while Carnelossi is stiff, head-hunts, and is easy to take down. He notes that Alencar's wrestling is clumsy but she finds ways to get to good positions. Carnelossi tends to stay on her back when put there.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 1 | 40 of 81 | 49% | 51 of 102 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 46 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 24 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 10 of 33 | 30% | 32 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 1 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:31 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 40 of 81 | 49% | 34 of 73 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 60 | 11 of 13 | 7 of 8 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 16 of 49 | 32% | 13 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 43 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 19 of 50 | 38% | 18 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 10 of 33 | 30% | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 9 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 21 of 31 | 67% | 16 of 24 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 17 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 4 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 6 of 16 | 37% | 4 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-192), Carnelossi (+160)
Round 1
After over a year off, Venezuelan striker Rodriguez (9-1, 2-1 UFC) will be making her return to the cage hoping to rebound from her first career defeat. She meets Carnelossi (14-3, 2-2 UFC), whose layoff exceeds her own—“Sorriso” has not competed since May 2022. The two strawweights will look to shake off any rust while referee Mark Smith watches on. With plenty of respect for one another, they gladly touch ‘em up before throwing down. After some circling, the first strike comes from Carnelossi in the form of a low kick. Rodriguez plods forward letting her hands go in a short but effective spray, and Carnelossi backs her off with a counter. This same exchange happens again, with Rodriguez wading into combat and landing first but getting struck last. Both women land on the other in their punch flurries, and a little over a minute in and Carnelossi is already showing damage on her nose. Rodriguez changes levels, and Carnelossi shoves her away with her fists flying. Rodriguez sneaks in three punches before darting away to evade the counter, and she does this once more. Carnelossi allows Rodriguez to get to her so that she can counter, but Rodriguez is getting off her own shots. Carnelossi surges into action with a heavy right hand after Rodriguez cuts her open on the left cheek, and Rodriguez stays on her bike to get away from the worst of it. Carnelossi bullrushes her foe, driving Rodriguez back to the cage and stumbling her momentarily when letting her hands go. Rodriguez considers another level change, and she meets a stone wall that analyst Din Thomas remarks looks like Sean Sherk. Rodriguez sells out for a takedown, punching her way into the attempt, and she slings Carnelossi to the mat. When they land, their limbs are tangled in their equipment, and Smith makes sure to prevent any wardrobe malfunctions and lets them go. They proceed to slug it out from this horizontal position, with Carnelossi fearlessly throwing hands off her back and flailing her feet to get Rodriguez off of her. Rodriguez considers backing off for a standup, but she instead races ahead and hammers Carnelossi with ground-and-pound until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
The strawweights bump their fists together before getting back to it. Carnelossi is the one pressing forward, but she is met by a strong right hand and a knee up the middle. Rodriguez looks to capitalize on this by shooting on the hips, and Carnelossi pushes her back. Rodriguez switches to attack with another knee in the belly, and she spins her foe around and pushes her to the wall. Rodriguez drops down for a single-leg takedown, and Carnelossi hops around on her other foot to remain upright. The women trade elbows, and Rodriguez hammers her with a number of knees. Rodriguez pursues another takedown, this time going after a double as she tries to clasp her hands together around the backside. Carnelossi shuts this down and gains a little space, resulting in a brief brawl that allows her to escape. Rodriguez times a perfect front kick that blasts Carnelossi right in the face, and Carnelossi is on rubber legs and backs away. Rodriguez charges her and swings her fists until Carnelossi falls over, and
Rodriguez leaps on top and headbutts Carnelossi as Smith tells them to watch their heads. “Sorriso” tries to defend herself as Rodriguez is pummeling her with strikes, and Rodriguez sits up and smacks Carnelossi with another headbutt.
Smith calls time after the second egregious foul, and the review officials determine it was a clear headbutt. Carnelossi sits up after a couple minutes of recovery, but she is still seeing stars and compromised from both the legal and illegal blows. Carnelossi stands up after about three minutes and shakes her head, and she lowers herself back down on the fence. Carnelossi sits back down, looking upset as she tries to clear her head, and she keeps shaking her head. The doctor assesses her condition once more, and he advises Smith that the fight should not continue. The only question remaining is if the fight is ruled a no contest or a disqualification.
The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Piera Rodriguez R2 3:16 via Disqualification (Headbutts)
Angelo acknowledges Piera Rodríguez is the better striker and grappler, but her fight IQ is questionable. Ariane Carnelossi is all brawn and strength, which could be enough in this division. However, the two-year layoff for Carnelossi and Piera's ability to bomb away and mix in takedowns should be the difference. He expects the fight to go the distance, similar to the Tabatha Ricci vs. Tisha Torres fight.
Cody provides an extensive breakdown: Rodríguez is a front-runner with suspect cardio and low volume, while Carnelossi is physically strong, has good cardio, and can get back up from takedowns. He notes Carnelossi's fight against Lupita Godinez showed she can survive multiple takedowns and still be competitive. Cody believes Carnelossi will outwork Rodríguez and win a decision, making her a great underdog play.
Carnelossi is a tank of a human being returning after over two years off. She has power and explosiveness that should dictate the pace on the feet. However, her takedown defense is a concern, and ring rust is a factor. Rodriguez has decent striking and wrestling but may not be able to control Carnelossi on the mat for long. Expects Carnelossi to batter Rodriguez on the feet and win a decision.
Paul likes Carnelossi as an underdog due to her physical strength and cardio edge. He notes Rodríguez has low volume and tends to fade in later rounds. Carnelossi has shown she can get back up from takedowns and has power in her punches. Paul believes Carnelossi's durability and pace will be too much for Rodríguez.
The MMA Guru picks Piera Rodríguez over Ariane Carnelossi, citing Carnelossi's suspected PED use and tendency to gas out. He notes that Carnelossi has been taken down frequently in past fights, including eight takedowns by Loopy Godinez, and that Rodríguez is good at holding back position. He expects Rodríguez to win via takedowns and control, possibly going the distance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 23 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 46 of 61 | 75% | 130 of 173 | 8 of 8 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 13:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 31 of 41 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:20 | |
| 2 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 23 of 30 | 76% | 49 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:24 | |
| 3 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 17 of 20 | 85% | 50 of 71 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loopy Godinez | 9 of 20 | 45% | 7 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 46 of 61 | 75% | 36 of 49 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 19 | 8 of 12 | 27 of 30 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loopy Godinez | 2 of 8 | 25% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 6 of 11 | 54% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Loopy Godinez | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 23 of 30 | 76% | 18 of 24 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 13 | |
| 3 | Loopy Godinez | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 17 of 20 | 85% | 13 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 12 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Godinez (-170), Carnelossi (+150)
Round 1
In her entire UFC run that began in 2019, Carnelossi (14-2, 2-1 UFC) has competed three times, thanks in part to injury and major surgery on her back. In comparison, “Loopy” Godinez (7-2, 2-2 UFC) debuted for the UFC in 2021, and this is her fifth walk to the Octagon. The strawweights will square off with oversight from outstanding referee Jason Herzog, and there is no interest in a glove touch before they get after it. Carnelossi comes out throwing, and Godinez answers her with an attempt to clinch, but the Brazilian has no interest in doing so. Carnelossi wades into power punches, and Godinez slips them and grabs hold of Carnelossi’s arm to throw her down to the mat. Godinez goes after an odd-angle choke in a wild scramble, and Carnelossi gets back up for one seconds before “Loopy” pulls her back down. Godinez snags on to a guillotine choke, and she lets go to take Carnelossi’s back when Carnelossi is on her knees. Godinez cranks on an unorthodox neck crank without a hook in, and Carnelossi powers through so that she can pursue a single. Godinez controls Carnelossi’s ankle from behind, disallowing “Sorriso” to sneak out the back door and try anything. Carnelossi crawls her way to the fence, and Godinez follows her and elbows her upside the head as she looks to get a hook in. Carnelossi powers back up with sheer muscle, and Godinez controls her all the way back down to the mat impressively. Godinez hangs on to Carnelossi, tripping her out and taking her for a ride with her hands clasped around Carnelossi’s chest. Godinez slings her down, and Godinez sets up a shoulder choke when Carnelossi defends with a guillotine choke. The Brazilian abandons her own guillotine so she does not fall into a Von Preux, and Godinez keeps her foe down on the mat with that arm-triangle. Godinez works Carnelossi over with knees to the body and punches, mixing in the occasional elbow as she gives Carnelossi fits. Carnelossi is stuck with her head pinned between the floor and the wall, and Godinez pounds her fist into Carnelossi’s face again and again. Godinez works the thigh with elbows, and controls Carnelossi to the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Godinez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Godinez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Godinez
Round 2
The Brazilian comes out with a left hook, but she is well off the mark when she swings it as Godinez is already backing off to kick the body. Godinez sneaks in a right hand, and Carnelossi is shocked and gets cracked with another that wobbles her as Carnelossi tries to counter. Godinez drives through with a double, slamming “Sorriso” down to the mat with emphasis, and she immediately begins to hammer Carnelossi with brutal elbows. Carnelossi struggles to keep her wits about her, and she slowly covers up and tries to turn the tables, only for Godinez to pressure her to the wall with Carnelossi on her knees. Godinez blasts Carnelossi in the ribs with a few knees, and Carnelossi gives up her back to turn away from the blows. Godinez happily takes it, and she gets both hooks in and starts fishing for a choke. Carnelossi tugs on the fence with fingers and toes in an effort to get some leverage, and Godinez meets a sweep attempt from the Brazilian to pull Carnelossi away from the cage wall. Godinez grips the toes for a possible toe hold, and Carnelossi yanks her foot free and subsequently begins to eat elbows. Godinez, from half guard, goes after a two-on-one wrist lock to wrench Carnelossi either up for a keylock or down for a kimura – whatever works for her, as she is firmly in the driver’s seat. Carnelossi turns to her knees as she breaks the les around her own waist, and she then falls to her back as Godinez goes after an arm-triangle choke. Godinez crushes down with the arm-triangle choke while in half guard, and she tries to step over to side control while squeezing the neck with all her might. Carnelossi is struggling and uses the “answer the telephone” defense to give herself just a little bit of breathing room. Carnelossi sits up and pushes Godinez’ arms back to sit up to her knees, and Godinez answers by aiming for a guillotine choke. Godinez cannot keep Carnelossi down as the last few seconds are on the clock, and when they stand, Godinez cracks her with a right hand for good measure to end the dominant round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Godinez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Godinez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Godinez
Round 3
The final round opens with an aggressive Carnelossi, and she throws a right hand and walks straight into a double. Godinez tackles Carnelossi straight to the mat, and she lands straight into side control. Carnelossi turns to her knees, and Godinez punches her in the side of the head when moving. Godinez keeps working the Brazilian with left hands as Carnelossi tries desperately to crawl her way to the fence and stand. Godinez hooks Carnelossi’s legs, and Carnelossi rolls through suddenly for a leglock. Godinez defends well and circles around to return to her position that allows her to land ground-and-pound, and she sucks out Carnelossi’s hips to return her to the floor. They trade short punches, as Carnelossi is leaning her back up against the fence while on her seat. Carnelossi bursts her way upright again, and Godinez ties her up in the clinch to knee and uppercut her repeatedly. “Loopy” decides to put on a show, and she lifts her foe completely up in the air and slams Carnelossi down to the mat. Godinez clings on top and hooks Carnelossi’s legs with her own, and she postures up to elbow Carnelossi a few times as Herzog takes a close look at the action. Godinez continues to grind with elbows, and in half guard she is doing some damage with her strikes. Carnelossi turns to sit up and try to reverse the position, but Godinez meets her every step of the way. Carnelossi eventually stands up, and Godinez knees her, punches her and snags a double to plant Carnelossi right back on the ground to make a statement. Godinez ends the fight with some powerful strikes, and she has likely picked up the biggest win of her career while putting on arguably her best performance to date.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Godinez (30-26 Godinez)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Godinez (30-26 Godinez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Godinez (30-26 Godinez)
The Official Result
Lupita Godinez def. Ariane Carnelossi via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)
Angelo picks Loopy Godinez but expresses hesitation, noting that Carnelossi is hard to push around and that Godinez may struggle to get the fight to the ground. He compares the matchup to Carnelossi's previous fights where she won despite losing exchanges. He mentions he may switch his pick after weigh-ins.
Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by decision, but he is leaning and flip-flopped. He thinks the striking is competitive, with Carnelossi having power and volume, but Godinez has better wrestling. Godinez showed good takedowns against Loma Lookboonmee, and Carnelossi has poor takedown defense (25%). Brady believes Godinez can get takedowns and control the fight on top. However, Carnelossi is dangerous and strong, making this a close fight. He edges Godinez but with little confidence.
Cody picks Lupita Godinez, citing her excellent wrestling and technical striking. He notes that Godinez consistently scores multiple takedowns and controls fights. Carnelossi's takedown defense is suspect, and even if she keeps it standing, Godinez has the striking advantage. Cody believes Godinez's wrestling, cardio, and pace will be decisive, and the -170 price is reasonable.
Daniel Levi picks Ariane Carnelossi as a slight underdog, expecting her to pull away down the stretch. He thinks Carnelossi's power and volume will be decisive if she can get back up from takedowns. He is not confident because Godinez may blanket her with wrestling. He does not bet the fight.
The host is very high on Loopy Godinez, calling this his bread and butter spot with a minus 180 favorite in women's MMA. He highlights Godinez's technical wrestling advantage over Carnelossi, who has suspect takedown defense. He expects Godinez to mix in striking to set up takedowns, then grind on top and possibly find a submission. He warns against Godinez striking too much but trusts her boxing if needed. He is considering making this his lock of the night play.
Paul does not make a clear pick. He considered Carnelossi at +200 but the line moved to +150, which scared him off. He notes that Carnelossi's win over Naliang was unimpressive as Naliang gassed. Paul calls it a dogger pass situation and does not express a preference.
The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez, trusting her well-rounded skills and potential. He notes that Godinez beat Loma Lookboonmee, who he considers one of the better strawweights, and that her only UFC loss came when moving up in weight. He criticizes Carnelossi's competition and implies she may be using performance-enhancing drugs. He believes Godinez has good enough grappling and striking to win, and that Carnelossi hasn't impressed him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 62 of 119 | 52% | 98 of 156 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 36 of 108 | 33% | 76 of 158 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 7:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 37 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 18 of 52 | 34% | 34 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 18 of 29 | 62% | 46 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 9 of 30 | 30% | 27 of 55 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 | |
| 3 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 15 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 62 of 119 | 52% | 37 of 88 | 16 of 22 | 9 of 9 | 54 of 109 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 36 of 108 | 33% | 33 of 103 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 100 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 31 of 63 | 49% | 17 of 47 | 10 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 59 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 18 of 52 | 34% | 17 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 49 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 18 of 29 | 62% | 12 of 21 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 23 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 9 of 30 | 30% | 8 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 25 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ariane Carnelossi | 13 of 27 | 48% | 8 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 9 of 26 | 34% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
There are now 10 fights on this maligned UFC Fight Night 195 card, one that is counterprogrammed against Bellator 268 in a few hours. We begin the event at the lightest division on the roster, when Carnelossi (13-2, 1-1 UFC) and her impressive musculature takes on promotional newcomer and fellow countrywoman Nunes (6-1,1 NC; 0-0 UFC). While Nunes is billed as a 7-1 fighter, the first win on her ledger the UFC is listing took place in muay Thai. The night begins thankfully with no nonsense thanks to referee Keith Peterson, and the two strawweights touch gloves before throwing down. Carnelossi immediately opens up with punch combinations, swarming the newcomer with a barrage of strikes. Nunes defends herself and backs away, but “Sorriso” chases her down and slams her in the face with heavy punches. Carnelossi continues to rage forward, and Nunes deftly slips back to land a leg kick, and she counters Carnelossi repeatedly. The two brawl it out and a few punches from Carnelossi draw blood from the nose of her opponent. Carnelossi pursues a takedown as she gets clipped, and Nunes defends the takedown by clearly grabbing the fence repeatedly. Peterson slaps her hand away several times and even grabs hold of it briefly to make her leg go, but she goes right back to grabbing it to stay upright. Peterson allowed a little nonsense in that situation there. Although Carnelossi is finally able to get her down her efforts do not reward her for long as Nunes springs right back up and gains separation. Carnelossi is not going to let her off the hook, as she blitzes towards her opponent with winging punches. She ends up clinching up again when considering a takedown, but the newcomer remains upright but gets jammed into the wire. Carnelossi keeps heavy chest pressure to grind Nunes into the wall, landing a few short shots but otherwise clinging on for dear life. Nunes looks to set up a Thai clinch with her back to the fence, getting off a couple knees and strikes before pushing off with a minute left in the round. Nunes starts spamming front kicks to the body, and they engage in a brief but nasty slugfest, landing flush on one another. Nunes takes a step back, scores a solid one-two and evades the counters. Carnelossi’s strikes are wilder while Nunes tries to compose herself, but defense is at a premium as they both land at a high clip. They tag one another on the chin with powerful punches, and right at the bell, Carnelossi lands flush and has to apologize because it might be after the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nunes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nunes
Round 2
The strawweights pick right up where they left off, throwing hammers. Nunes strings a quartet of punches together, and Carnelossi answers with a vengeance throwing looping hooks and clubbing Nunes in the face. Carnelossi’s headhunting approach does allow Nunes to counter her, but the sheer forward momentum of Carnelossi pushes Nunes into the wire. Carnelossi pursues a takedown, and once more Nunes grabs the fence to keep her balance. Peterson sees it but does not say anything, and Nunes walks back up to her feet. Carnelossi embraces the grind up against the wall, with Nunes attempting to frame off and land strikes up the middle as Carnelossi remains pressed tightly to her. Carnelossi ducks down for a single leg takedown, and Nunes looks for a power guillotine on the way down to the mat but bails on it when her backside hits the canvas. Carnelossi keeps her foe’s legs trapped beneath her leg triangle, but Nunes slithers one out and then the other before making her way upright. Nunes stands, and she knees Carnelossi on the chin once, but “Sorriso” does not register the blow as she hangs on with everything she has. Nunes stays busy with her back trapped, punching to the side occasionally, and she sneaks out the side to break free and just miss with a head kick. Nunes pops Carnelossi with a few punches as she backpedals, with the shorter Carnelossi crowding her and never giving her space to breathe. Nunes lets loose with a body kick, and this draws a sharp exhale from her opponent, with the latter appearing to slow. Nunes chains punches into body kicks, and she clips Carnelossi with a right hand before Carnelossi barrels towards her and slams her into the ground. Carnelossi manages to score a few left hands when Nunes is seated against the fencing, and Nunes appears flustered as she cannot get up thanks to Carnelossi’s position on top. Nunes powers back to her feet, but she does not get free before the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Round 3
Nunes begins the round by circling away to escape the power punches from her marauding opponent. Carnelossi attacks without faltering, throwing big punches and connecting more often than not. Nunes sticks and moves, but she cannot evade every one of the hooks coming her way. Nunes pierces the midsection with a few kicks, and she ducks out of the way as Carnelossi charges at her. They both just miss with single power strikes, and Nunes gets off a right hand only to get smacked with a counter that knocks her back into the wall. Carnelossi uses this momentum to go after a single, and Nunes grabs the fence again to try to pull her way up as Peterson slaps at her hand. When Nunes looks to scramble, Carnelossi climbs on to a three-quarter mount before getting a hook in and partially taking Nunes’ back.
Carnelossi hunts for a choke, and she snakes an arm beneath the throat. “Sorriso” senses that this is her moment to strike, and she snags the grip with her other arm to lock the rear-naked choke in completely.
The forearm under the chin, Nunes looks around, fights the grip for a second and then surrenders. The submission win is now just the second of Carnelossi’s career, who lands her first since a keylock in 2016.
The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Istela Nunes R3 2:57 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Nunes as an underdog but is hesitant due to her three-year layoff and USADA suspension. He notes Nunes is the more technical striker with speed and versatility, while Carnelossi is aggressive and strong but sloppy. He worries about Nunes' timing after the layoff but believes if she finds a rhythm, she will out-strike Carnelossi. He does not bet the moneyline but considers prop bets like plus 3.5 points or win inside distance/decision no action.
Big Brady picks Istela Nunes as a dog, citing her Muay Thai background and technical striking advantage. He notes Carnelossi is hittable with poor striking defense, but acknowledges Nunes has a three-year layoff and questions about her ground game. He is hesitant to bet due to the unknowns, but picks Nunes by decision.
Cody leans toward Carnelossi, noting her strength and physicality. He mentions that Nunes has fought only once in three years due to contract issues with ONE Championship, making her ring rust a concern. He acknowledges Carnelossi's reach disadvantage but thinks her tank-like build and cardio can carry her.
Daniel picks Carnelossi due to her UFC experience and power, comparing her style to Jessica Andrade. He notes that Carnelossi has one-hitter-quitter power that can trouble strawweights, and she rebounded well after a cut stoppage loss. He acknowledges Istela Nunes is scrappy and has finishes, but the USADA suspension and debut questions make him lean toward Carnelossi.
Carnelossi is a forward-pressure brawler who moves forward and throws big bombs, similar to a female John Lineker. Nunes has a long layoff and USADA suspension, making her a question mark. Carnelossi by decision is the play because Nunes is durable and likely to eat shots for 15 minutes.
Paul does not make a clear pick, admitting he is not familiar with Nunes and needs to study the fight more. He provides background on both fighters but does not state a preference.
The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi due to her superior experience and competition level. He highlights her 'man arms' and physical strength, as well as her proven ground game and stand-up, including a body kick KO. He predicts a ground-and-pound TKO in the second round, noting Carnelossi's cardio and ability to finish late.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 36 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 2 | 2:48 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 24 of 32 | 75% | 91 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 3 | 2:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 26 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 2 | 2:25 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 65 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 1:55 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 10 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 26 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 19 of 27 | 70% | 13 of 21 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 3 |
| Liang Na | 24 of 32 | 75% | 23 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 13 of 19 | 68% | 9 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 3 |
| Liang Na | 16 of 20 | 80% | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 10 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Liang Na | 8 of 12 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
This historic night topped off by a title tripleheader will begin in the lightest division in the company, as Carnelossi (12-2, 0-1 UFC) aims for her first UFC win against the debuting “Dragon Girl” Liang (15-4, 0-0 UFC). Whether Liang holds 13 wins or 15 on her ledger may be of some dispute, but she does bring a 100 percent finish rate into this contest, and referee James Folsom may have his work cut out for him early. There is no touch of gloves as the two fighters would prefer introduce one another with their fists, and with a huge pop from the crowd – remember, we are in Jacksonville, Fla., with a packed house -- we are now underway! The two women come out like a house on fire, going berserk with a wild striking flurry. Both women tag the other, and Liang is the one who gets the advantage of the position as she powers through and bullies the Brazilian to her canvas. Liang steps over to secure an arm-triangle choke as she sits in half guard, and Carnelossi kicks off and reverses the position. Liang drags her back down, but “Sorriso” powers up to her feet and tags Liang with a right hand. “Dragon Girl” does not let her off the hook, charging into a takedown attempt as she furiously throws hands. The strikes do enough to keep Carnelossi busy defending, so that Liang can hit a body lock takedown and throw the Brazilian on the canvas again. Carnelossi keeps her guard closed tight, and Liang lifts her up and slams her down hard. Carnelossi opens up and throws her legs up for an armbar, and although she cannot land it, she is able to sweep Liang and put her on her back. Liang threatens with an armbar of her own, and Carnelossi shrugs it off to start raining down strikes from on top. Liang catches an arm when Carnelossi is hammering her with shots, and she locks up an armbar. Carnelossi muscles her way through to break the grip, and Liang is able to turn her over and put the Brazilian on her back. Carnelossi rolls to her knees as she grabs a leg on Liang, and through sheer force of will, she lifts Liang in the air and slams her down. Liang rolls to her knees and gets clubbed in the side of the head, and Carnelossi circles around to take her back. Carnelossi attempts a rear-naked choke, but Liang wildly scrambles and bursts to her feet. Liang does not stay upright for long, as she nails Carnelossi with punches from on top. Carnelossi snags a triangle choke from her back, and she uses it to mount and put Liang on her back. Carnelossi lands serious strikes from above, and she clubs Liang repeatedly until the bell sounds. Liang survives, but she is extremely fatigued just five minutes in.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Round 2
The pace is nowhere near as insane to start off the second frame, as Liang lands a few strikes from a distance. When Carnelossi counters, Liang flips her foot up and slaps Carnelossi in the face. Carnelossi grabs hold of her foe and looks to take the fight down, but Liang is able to put her down. Carnelossi keeps a hook in and is able to retain back control, and she takes the back and hunts for a choke. Liang twists and turns to break the grip, but she falls to her back as Carnelossi climbs into guard and starts with hammerfists.
Carnelossi keeps smashing her growingly exhausted adversary with a barrage of hammerfists, and before long, Folsom intervenes as Liang is no longer able to intelligently defend herself.
Although the stoppage might seem premature to some, the defeated Liang is gasping for air and completely thrashed after that torrid affair. If this performance is any indication, we will be in for quite a night.
The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Na Liang R2 1:28 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady picks Carnelossi to win by second-round KO. He notes Carnelossi's takedown defense is strong and she is aggressive, while Liang Na is one-dimensional, always going for takedowns and gassing out if she doesn't get a quick submission. He expects Carnelossi to stuff takedowns and eventually land a knockout after Liang Na tires.
Cody picks Carnelossi, noting her strength and experience against tougher competition. He thinks Liang's grappling attempts will be neutralized by Carnelossi's physicality. He expects Carnelossi to win by decision or TKO.
Daniel picks Ariane Carnelossi because she is a powerful striker who can bully Liang Na on the feet. He notes that Liang Na is a one-dimensional grappler who sells out for submissions, and Carnelossi's brown belt should help her avoid getting caught. He expects Carnelossi to keep the fight standing and possibly get a finish.
I'm picking Liang Na with very little confidence. I think she'll get her grappling game going and possibly pull off a submission in the second or third round. Carnelossi is a brawler like John Lineker, swinging bombs, but Liang has never been knocked out and has been improving at the UFC Performance Institute. Carnelossi's takedown defense and submission game are questionable, so Liang's grappling could be the difference.
Paul picks Carnelossi, citing her physical strength and power. He notes Liang's weak competition and struggles against stronger opponents. He thinks Carnelossi will keep the fight standing and use her strength to overpower Liang. He expects Carnelossi to win by KO or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi over Liang Na. He notes that Carnelossi has known about the matchup longer and is more proven, having kept up with Angela Hill before a cut stoppage. He thinks Liang Na is young and has potential but is taking the fight on short notice and has losses to lesser competition. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Carnelossi.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 0 | 72 of 186 | 38% | 83 of 197 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 92 of 184 | 50% | 93 of 185 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 0 | 28 of 69 | 40% | 32 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 37 of 68 | 54% | 37 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 0 | 31 of 76 | 40% | 36 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 39 of 85 | 45% | 39 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Angela Hill | 0 | 13 of 41 | 31% | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 17 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 72 of 186 | 38% | 36 of 137 | 15 of 26 | 21 of 23 | 57 of 156 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 92 of 184 | 50% | 60 of 137 | 32 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 57 of 139 | 35 of 45 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 28 of 69 | 40% | 13 of 47 | 8 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 49 | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 37 of 68 | 54% | 22 of 47 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 46 | 20 of 22 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 31 of 76 | 40% | 14 of 54 | 5 of 9 | 12 of 13 | 28 of 69 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 39 of 85 | 45% | 24 of 64 | 15 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 68 | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Angela Hill | 13 of 41 | 31% | 9 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 16 of 31 | 51% | 14 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 25 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
We continue the theme of a UFC veteran welcoming a debutant to the Octagon as Hill (9-7, 4-7 UFC) faces the surging Carnelossi (12-1, 0-0 UFC) in the strawweight division. Our referee is Fernando Salas Navarro. Carnelossi advances immediately, and gets clipped a few times on the way in by Hill. The Brazilian comes in to clinch, and Hill reverses position while landing several solid knees to the body. They break, but not before Hill cracks her opponent with a sharp right elbow. Carnelossi charges forward again, but Hill is ready on the counter. Carnelossi drops in for a single leg takedown, but Hill defends it well and separates. The Brazilian keeps the pressure coming heavy, walking Hill down and backing her against the fence. Hill circles away, and lands a right hand, but Carnelossi eats it and walks through. A two-punch combination gets through from Hill, and as her corner calls for specific strikes, Hill complies and scores every one. Hill drops in a few hard knees in the clinch, and in the exchange Carnelossi begins to bleed from her forehead. As Carnelossi pushes in, Hill brings up a knee that catches the Brazilian on the chin, but Carnelossi is unfazed. Hill steps in and lands another knee, while avoiding the counter strikes, and then lifts one more up for good measure. Carnelossi slaps in a hard leg kick, and the two women trade hands standing in front of each other. Hill catches Carnelossi with an uppercut, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Round 2
Carnelossi opens up with a leg kick to begin the round, and seeing its success, she sinks one more. Hill swings with a left-right, and as Carnelossi pushes in, Hill is ready to respond with short knees. As they clinch, again Hill takes the advantage by scoring an elbow on the break. The Brazilian scores a few more leg kicks, and Hill switches stances briefly, and when she does, Carnelossi tags her. Hill wears it well, and circles away while picking her shots. Hill prepares to counter any of Carnelossi's offense with a check knee, and "Sorriso" cracks Hill with a loud body kick. The two trade leather, and some swelling begins to form on The Brazilian's forehead. Hill puts together a few punches, but Carnelossi throws hard and lands on Hill's chin. Carnelossi successfully gets off another low kick, and then while coming forward lands a right over the top. Hill tries for a superman punch, but Carnelossi is ready and throws another leg kick that makes Hill hop around for a second. Hill steps in for an elbow, but Carnelossi clips her with a left hand. The American leads with a knee, and Carnelossi is content to chase her down while loading up on her right hand. Clinched up once more, Hill lands several more knees to the body, and as time expires she leaps in the air and kicks Carnelossi in the midsection.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Round 3
Carnelossi charges forward to begin the final round, and Hill counters her with a right hand and left knee. The Brazilian stalks down Hill, and chains together a several-punch combination but takes a few knees to the body for her trouble. Hill waits for Carnelossi to come in, and times a powerful right elbow that Carnelossi shrugs off. Hill digs with a left to the body, and Carnelossi tags her with a few punches before clinching up. Hill spins out and slices the Brazilian with a huge elbow that splits her forehead open. The cut, which is placed directly above Carnelossi's left eyebrow and is about an inch wide, immediately begins pouring blood. Navarro calls in the doctor, who remarks the cut is too big and calls it, so the fight is over. Hill records the TKO victory, earning her first stoppage win inside the Octagon.
The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Ariane Carnelossi R3 1:56 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)?
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Loopy Godinez but expresses hesitation, noting that Carnelossi is hard to push around and that Godinez may struggle to get the fight to the ground. He compares the matchup to Carnelossi's previous fights where she won despite losing exchanges. He mentions he may switch his pick after weigh-ins.
Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by decision, but he is leaning and flip-flopped. He thinks the striking is competitive, with Carnelossi having power and volume, but Godinez has better wrestling. Godinez showed good takedowns against Loma Lookboonmee, and Carnelossi has poor takedown defense (25%). Brady believes Godinez can get takedowns and control the fight on top. However, Carnelossi is dangerous and strong, making this a close fight. He edges Godinez but with little confidence.
Cody picks Lupita Godinez, citing her excellent wrestling and technical striking. He notes that Godinez consistently scores multiple takedowns and controls fights. Carnelossi's takedown defense is suspect, and even if she keeps it standing, Godinez has the striking advantage. Cody believes Godinez's wrestling, cardio, and pace will be decisive, and the -170 price is reasonable.
Daniel Levi picks Ariane Carnelossi as a slight underdog, expecting her to pull away down the stretch. He thinks Carnelossi's power and volume will be decisive if she can get back up from takedowns. He is not confident because Godinez may blanket her with wrestling. He does not bet the fight.
The host is very high on Loopy Godinez, calling this his bread and butter spot with a minus 180 favorite in women's MMA. He highlights Godinez's technical wrestling advantage over Carnelossi, who has suspect takedown defense. He expects Godinez to mix in striking to set up takedowns, then grind on top and possibly find a submission. He warns against Godinez striking too much but trusts her boxing if needed. He is considering making this his lock of the night play.
Paul does not make a clear pick. He considered Carnelossi at +200 but the line moved to +150, which scared him off. He notes that Carnelossi's win over Naliang was unimpressive as Naliang gassed. Paul calls it a dogger pass situation and does not express a preference.
The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez, trusting her well-rounded skills and potential. He notes that Godinez beat Loma Lookboonmee, who he considers one of the better strawweights, and that her only UFC loss came when moving up in weight. He criticizes Carnelossi's competition and implies she may be using performance-enhancing drugs. He believes Godinez has good enough grappling and striking to win, and that Carnelossi hasn't impressed him.
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