Career Averages - Ilia Topuria
Career Averages - Jai Herbert
Ilia Topuria
Jai Herbert
Ilia Topuria - Fight History
AJ believes Topuria's hands are too precise and his boxing is too elite for Gaethje. He mentions that Gaethje's calf kicks and forward pressure give him a chance, but ultimately Topuria's striking is different and he expects Topuria to get the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 1 | 21 of 29 | 72% | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 1 | 21 of 29 | 72% | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 21 of 29 | 72% | 17 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 16 | 56% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 21 of 29 | 72% | 17 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 16 | 56% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-440), Oliveira (+340)
Round 1
One way or another, lightweight history will be made tonight. Either Topuria (16-0, 8-0 UFC) will become the first undefeated two-division champ in UFC history, or Oliveira (35-10, 1 NC; 23-10, 1 NC UFC) will serve as the first two-time 155-pound king. The finish rates of the two are high, excitement is higher and the
fighter
that was
electrocuted in Thailand
on Sunday at a Weed Boxing show may be the highest. Locked and loaded, referee Marc Goddard has got this. Before the mayhem begins, the 155ers vying for the vacant throne share a respectful fist bump. It’s on with the show.
Oliveira is quick to deliver a hard leg kick, and they get right to swinging. Both men tag one another immediately, with the former lightweight champ hitting harder but suffering a cut on the eye. Oliveira rushes forward to grab hold of Topuria, searching for a body lock takedown. Oliveira tries to throw Topuria to the mat, but he ends up falling to his back. Blood flows from the eyebrow of “Do Bronxs,” who latches onto a leglock that drags Topuria to the floor. Topuria scrambles wildly to get his leg out, turning towards the Brazilian and exploding his way up. He slaps Oliveira with a few low kicks to either side, until Goddard tells Oliveira to stand. Topuria lets loose with swinging fists, and Oliveira clinches and throws him to the wall. Oliveira dips and delivers an uppercut on the chin, and Topuria goes to the body. Topuria’s power is maximum, as he unleashes a thunderous right hook and a lightning bolt left that sends Oliveira collapsing to the floor, completely unconscious. Before Goddard can get between them, Topuria hammers the nail with a couple brutal, unnecessary hammerfists. The snoozing Oliveira’s eyes stare into the void, and the void stares back into him until he regains consciousness.
While Oliveira has been stopped with strikes before, including taking a one-hitter quitter from Cub Swanson in 2012, no one has done that to the Brazilian at 155 pounds. The vacancy of the lightweight belt is now filled, and it is in the arms of “El Matador.” Topuria called his shot perfectly, claiming before the match that he would knock out Oliveira in the first round. He did just that, and the next question is who will be next for him. Three awaiting contenders are shown in the crowd: Justin Gaethje, Paddy Pimblett and Arman Tsarukyan. Topuria calls out Pimblett specifically, and declares, “If you think you are ready, come on you blonde b--ch.” Pimblett jumps out of the crowd to hurry into the cage, and politely gives Topuria credit for the hellacious knockout while patting him on the shoulder. “Paddy the Baddy” then announces that he will finish Topuria, and that “El Matador” could not knock him out. Topuria shoves Pimblett as dollar signs flash in the eyes of UFC executives, with the company apparently matching the fight right now. If that fight does materialize, it will be a big one, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Charles Oliveira R1 2:27 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria because he believes Topuria's boxing, footwork, and wrestling are superior to Charles Oliveira's. He notes that Oliveira has been rocked in almost every fight, while Topuria has only been dropped once and recovered to win. He acknowledges that Oliveira is a great grappler but thinks Topuria's wrestling is better and his hands are cleaner. He is slightly concerned about Topuria's size at lightweight but thinks he will get the job done.
Big Brady believes this is a bad matchup for Oliveira, citing Topuria's excellent takedown defense and power. He notes Oliveira has been dropped in recent fights and Topuria hits harder than anyone Oliveira has faced. Brady thinks the fight will stay standing, where Topuria will land big shots and potentially finish early. He also mentions that referee Mark Goddard is quick to stop fights, which favors Topuria. He predicts a first-round knockout.
Connor sees this as a bad stylistic matchup for Oliveira. He notes that Oliveira's losses come against fighters who aren't afraid to grapple with him and who pressure him, both of which describe Topuria. He also highlights Topuria's body punching and pressure fighting as key advantages, and believes Topuria's wrestling defense is sufficient to neutralize Oliveira's grappling. He expects Topuria to finish Oliveira relatively quickly, either by knockout or by dominating on the ground.
The host believes Topuria can walk Oliveira down and land big power shots, setting up a knockout. He also notes Topuria might look to take the fight to the ground to submit the UFC submission leader, but ultimately expects a knockout victory.
The host picks Ilia Topuria by TKO, citing his crisp boxing, power, and ability to hurt Oliveira. He notes that Oliveira gets hurt by everyone and that Topuria's compact style will be difficult for Oliveira to grapple with. He predicts multiple knockdowns leading to a finish late in the first round.
Zane agrees that Topuria is a bad matchup for Oliveira. He points out that Oliveira's game relies on fear and aggression, and if an opponent doesn't respect his grappling, Oliveira can be beaten. He notes that Topuria is a pressure fighter who is comfortable in the pocket and has good takedown defense. Zane also mentions that Oliveira looked slower and more cautious in his last fight against Chandler, which is a worrying sign. He expects Topuria to win, possibly by knockout or by outgrappling Oliveira.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 1 | 75 of 144 | 52% | 78 of 147 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 79 of 204 | 38% | 84 of 209 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 24 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 30 of 75 | 40% | 35 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 32 of 62 | 51% | 32 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 35 of 102 | 34% | 35 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 1 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 75 of 144 | 52% | 49 of 114 | 11 of 14 | 15 of 16 | 71 of 140 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Max Holloway | 79 of 204 | 38% | 47 of 151 | 13 of 30 | 19 of 23 | 79 of 204 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 22 of 47 | 46% | 13 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 30 of 75 | 40% | 17 of 56 | 7 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 30 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 32 of 62 | 51% | 20 of 47 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 32 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 35 of 102 | 34% | 23 of 79 | 3 of 13 | 9 of 10 | 35 of 102 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 21 of 35 | 60% | 16 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Max Holloway | 14 of 27 | 51% | 7 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-230), Holloway (+190)
Round 1
One of the best fights the UFC could possibly make serves as the main attraction, and it is one for all the marbles. Topuria (15-0, 7-0 UFC) puts his featherweight strap and undefeated record on the line against former champ Holloway (26-7, 22-7 UFC), and excitement is at a fever pitch. No more introductions are needed. Referee Marc Goddard brings the gladiators to the center of the Octagon to touch gloves, and they do just that. It’s on with the show. Topuria stands in the middle of the cage and points to the ground, and Holloway motions a matador gesture to counter him. They do not brawl it out immediately. Topuria advances calmly instead, measuring the former champ and blocking a head kick and a few jabs. Topuria goes over the top with a right hand that misses the mark, and a second nearly lands as well. Holloway keeps active with jabs and body kicks, and he swipes out with a right hook that misses the mark. Topuria puts everything he has into a huge right hand, and Holloway is wise to it and pecks at him with sharp jabs. Topuria shoots in and lifts “Blessed” off his feet, driving him to the canvas with a solid double. Holloway wall-walks, and Topuria forced a mat return. Holloway stands once more and breaks away, and he checks a low kick and advances with a right hand. Topuria gives him a right to think about, but Holloway does not let him off the hook and pegs him with a pair of punches. Topuria chops at the front leg a few times, and he tags Holloway with a right hand. Holloway skirts out of the way before absorbing more than a few, and Topuria works his front leg with another hard kick. Holloway snaps out a jab, marking up Topuria’s face and coming up short with a front kick. Topuria reaches his target with a jab, and Holloway prods out with low kicks. Topuria tries to swing it out, and Holloway is composed enough to evade the blows and get off a long right hand on the way out. Holloway splits the guard with a front kick and has his guard high to defend the counters, and his head kick bounces off the guard. Holloway peppers his opponent with a low kick and jabs, and he follows a jab with a two. Topuria shakes it off and walks into a jab that makes him reset, and he dodges a spinning back kick in time. Topuria throws hammers, and he knocks an off-balance Holloway down to the mat in what was more of a slip or a trip than a clean strike, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 2
The featherweights clap hands to get started again, and Holloway fights immediately behind his jab. Topuria comes up short with a low kick and a right hand, and he gets caught on the way in with a jab. Holloway tags the champ with a clean right, and he trades low kicks with his opponent. Holloway goes to the head and body with jabs, and he takes one on the nose to back him away. Topuria wings power punches that hit air, but his calf kick finds its mark. Topuria clubs Holloway on the side of the head with winging punches, and he chains a calf kick after it. Topuria gets in a right hand and has a leg kick checked, and Holloway snaps his head back with a jab. Holloway steps in with a knee behind a few jabs, and he stomps at the front knee of his adversary. Topuria drills Holloway in the chin with a left hand, and he goes after the front leg with a kick again. Topuria’s punches connect cleanly on the jaw of the Hawaiian, who shows him what time it is with a left hook and a head kick on the other side. Topuria loads up on power strikes, and Holloway’s jabs are disrupting him just enough so that he does not get them full blast. Holloway dips a huge hook and jabs away, and he reaches out with a body shot. Topuria answers in kind, and he rolls with a right hook. Holloway kicks the side as he fires off jabs, and he checks a kick and kicks his man back. Holloway knees the side as Topuria barrels down on him, and he nails the champ with a short left and a power right. Topuria responds with a right hand, and he is met with multiple low kicks in response. Chants for both fighters are deafening in the building, and Holloway chains a number of punches together to decent effect. Topuria kicks the front leg and gets met with a body kick, and he eats a right hand when throwing one. Holloway scores a spinning back kick to the body, and Topuria shrugs at him before the round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 3
It’s back to more face-punching as they resume again, and Holloway uses his punches to set up two low kicks and a third up high. Topuria walks through a leg kick to land a right on the chin, and Holloway scores a left hand as Topuria points at him. Topuria deploys a powerful leg kick, and a second one is met with long punches from the former champ. Holloway stomps at his foe’s front leg a few times, and Topuria does not lie it. Topuria winds up with a huge right hand, knocking the former champ back and stunning him. Holloway shells up and defends himself from an onslaught, and he is still rocked even as he counters and circles away. Topuria is on top of him ready to finish the job, further backing Holloway up to the wall and letting loose with a bombardment of punches. A ferocious left hand in the midst of a fierce flurry knocks Holloway down to the ground, and Topuria has achieved something no featherweight has ever accomplished. Topuria lowers himself down to blast Holloway with a number of hammerfists, and Holloway’s lights go out and get switched back on from the stream of blows. Goddard sees that Holloway has had enough and waves the fight off, and Topuria wanders away and motions sipping at tea. Incredible! Topuria has done the impossible, knocking out a fighter who had never before been stopped with strikes. Topuria is still undefeated, having notched back-to-back finishes that will stack up among the greatest ever performed in the division. Topuria leaps out of the cage to embrace anyone he can find, including UFC chief exec Hunter Campbell and television host Steve Harvey. As he returns to the cage, he receives a rose for his effort. Topuria welcomes all challengers, including former champion Alexander Volkanovski, who takes the cage to greet him. Topuria says he does not want to fight anyone right now, and instead wants to hug Volkanovski. He does just that. Full of love, Topuria wants to celebrate this victory with his family and team. It remains to be seen who is next for the champion, who cements himself as a star and one of the greats in his weight class because of this spectacular triumph. No matter who is next for "El Matador," we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Max Holloway R3 1:34 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria as the final leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet, but admits he would be happy to lose the bet if Max wins. He praises Topuria's speed, power, and wrestling entries, and believes he is the next generation of fighter. He thinks Topuria will be too fast and diverse for Max, but acknowledges Max's legendary striking and durability.
Big Brady thinks this is a very close fight. He believes Topuria will have early success but that Holloway's durability, cardio, and pace will take over in the later rounds. He notes that Holloway has never been knocked out and has absorbed the most significant strikes in UFC history, so he cannot pick anyone to knock him out. He predicts a split decision win for Holloway.
Cody picks Max Holloway as a plus 200 underdog, citing Holloway's unparalleled volume and pace, which he believes will overwhelm Topuria in the later rounds. He notes that Topuria has been outlanded in most of his fights before landing a knockout, and that Holloway has never been knocked out. Cody also mentions that Topuria's cardio slowed in the fifth round against Josh Emmett, and that Holloway's takedown defense is elite. He sprinkles on Holloway by KO in rounds 4 and 5 at long odds.
Connor picks Topuria, citing his relentless pressure and power advantage. He notes that Max Holloway, while still capable of greatness, has shown signs of age and accumulated damage, and his recent win over Gaethje was more a reflection of Gaethje's poor performance. Connor believes Topuria's pressure and power will be too much for Holloway, especially if Holloway tries to fight on the back foot.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's power edge, durability, and grappling upside. He notes that Max Holloway has taken a lot of damage over his career and that Topuria's upward trajectory and maturity in the octagon give him the advantage. Vreeland also mentions that Topuria's boxing defense is superior and that he has the ability to finish Holloway, possibly becoming the first to knock him out. He is not concerned about Holloway's late-round cardio narrative, pointing to Topuria's performance against Josh Emmett in round five.
Lucrative James picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's massive power advantage and grappling upside. He notes that Topuria can close distance, pressure Holloway against the cage, and land heavy shots, and also has submission threats. He acknowledges Holloway's elite chin and takedown defense but believes Topuria's speed and clinical punching will be too much. He predicts a KO or decision win for Topuria.
Holloway can take Topuria's best shot and then come back with a volume-heavy approach that Topuria cannot keep up with. Topuria had great cardio against Josh Emmett but will not have that luxury against Holloway, who gets stronger in deep waters. Holloway will turn up the pressure in championship rounds and get a TKO finish in the fourth or fifth round.
Paul also picks Max Holloway, emphasizing that the fight is closer to 50-50 than the odds suggest. He argues that Topuria's power is real but he gets outlanded in most fights before landing a kill shot, and that Holloway's durability and volume will be key. Paul points out that Topuria's wins over Volk and Emmett came against opponents with durability issues, and that Holloway's experience and pace will expose Topuria. He also mentions that Topuria's reluctance to fight Holloway initially suggests doubt.
The Guru picks Ilia Topuria to win by decision, citing Topuria's superior boxing and power as the prototype to beat Max Holloway. He notes that Holloway struggles against shorter opponents, as seen in the Volk trilogy, and that Topuria's low kicks and ability to cut Holloway will be key. He also mentions Holloway's recent weight cut from lightweight and scar tissue as disadvantages. The Guru predicts Topuria will hurt Holloway early, open a cut, and survive a late rally to win a damage-based decision.
Zane picks Topuria, agreeing with Connor that Topuria's pressure and power are key. He notes that Holloway's recent performances have been less assertive and that Topuria's ability to counter the jab and walk opponents down will be problematic for Holloway. Zane also mentions that Holloway's best chance is to pressure Topuria, but he's not sure Holloway will do that.
Zane picked Topuria going into the fight, citing his power and ability to press and stay on the front foot, while Holloway's willingness to work the back foot and counter would be too big a hill to climb. He noted that Holloway's height, length, and diversity of skills gave Topuria trouble early, but Topuria's huge power and deadly pocket countering were the equalizer. Zane emphasized that Holloway has never been a big power puncher and could not match Topuria's power, and that Holloway's style of taking one to give three eventually caught up to him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 0 | 47 of 107 | 43% | 47 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 35 of 77 | 45% | 36 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 26 of 52 | 50% | 26 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 21 of 55 | 38% | 21 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 47 of 107 | 43% | 21 of 68 | 11 of 22 | 15 of 17 | 44 of 102 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 35 of 77 | 45% | 17 of 53 | 12 of 16 | 6 of 8 | 28 of 70 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 26 of 52 | 50% | 8 of 29 | 7 of 12 | 11 of 11 | 24 of 49 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 15 of 38 | 39% | 4 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 21 of 55 | 38% | 13 of 39 | 4 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 20 of 39 | 51% | 13 of 28 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkanovski (-118), Topuria (-102)
Round 1
We have reached the marquee matchup of the evening, and it is one that fight fans have been waiting patiently to watch for several months. Unable to secure a second title, Volkanovski (26-3, 13-2 UFC) will have to make do with attempting the sixth defense of his featherweight throne. Much has been said about his age, having recently turned 35, and he steered into it on fight week by donning an “Old Man Volk” persona. Eight years the junior of the champ, full of vinegar and that other thing, fired up unbeaten Topuria (14-0, 6-0 UFC) wants that gold belt, and to claim it he will have to become the first fighter to defeat Volkanovski at 145 pounds. No matter how this fight plays out, referee Jason Herzog will take care of the proceedings. When he brings the fighters together, they opt to touch gloves first. Topuria moves towards the center of the cage, and he blocks a quick head kick. As Topuria advances, Volkanovski snipes him with kicks high and low. Volkanovski paws out with a left and a body kick, and Topuria walks through them and retaliates with a sharp right hand over the top. Volkanovski times a kick to the body and continues throwing them to the lead leg and midsection, even flicking one up high as he keeps Topuria from reaching him. Volkanovski rips the body with another kick, and he pokes out a jab. Topuria winds up with a hard leg kick, spinning the champ all the way around, and Volkanovski recovers with a spinning back fist just in case Topuria was advancing. Topuria kicks the calf low with bad intentions, and he backs the champ off with an overhand right that glances off his guard. Topuria gets off another low kick, and he forces Volkanovski to change stances just a few in. Volkanovski dances out of the way of a short combo of fists, and he whips a kick up high to keep Topuria honest. Volkanovski delivers a calf kick back, and he follows suit with a body kick. Volkanovski paws out a left as Topuria charges, but Topuria manages to break through and sting Volkanovski with a right hand. Volkanovski bounces off the fence and shakes it off, where he peppers kicks to stave off the offense from the challenger. Volkanovski connects with a body kick and slips a huge punch, and he drives two heavy low kicks home to stumble Topuria. Volkanovski tags Topuria on the way in with a short left hand, and Topuria motions to him that his punches do not faze him. Volkanovski signals that he did land cleanly, and he shoots for a takedown only to break and knee the Georgian three times in rapid succession. The close round ends with a trickle of blood leaking from the bridge of Topuria’s nose.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 2
The featherweights touch ‘em up in the middle of the cage, and Volkanovski is fleet of foot, darting in and out with jabs and kicks to any target he can find. Topuria crashes the pocket with two hooks, and Volkanovski rolls with them and shifts to the side. Topuria chases with an overhand right, and Volkanovski measures with jabs. Topuria lands cleanly with a right and then a left, and Volkanovski nods at him and clinches up only to knee the challenger on the break. Volkanovski connects with a right hand and a low kick as Topuria resets, and Volkanovski reaches him on the way back with a body kick. Topuria lunges to land a single punch, and the jabs from Volkanovski have opened the slight cut on Topuria’s nose again. Topuria knocks Volkanovski back with a right hand, and he digs a kick to the calf as Volkanovski changes stances. They snap out jabs at the same time, with the champion reaching more cleanly and frequently when they trade them. Volkanovski peppers the lead leg with kicks, and he drives a right hand into Topuria’s forehead to give him a moment of pause. Topuria lands a low kick, and Volkanovski gives him back one to the calf and one to the body. Volkanovski springs forward with jabs that have marked the face up of the challenger, and he does not slow in his approach of kicking to any target he can find. Frustrated with taking potshots from afar, “El Matador” charges like a bull. Volkanovski slips the oncoming fire, rebounding off the cage wall, but Topuria does not slow. Topuria unleashes a lightning bolt of a right hand that completely short circuits the champion. All the way out, Volkanovski collapses with his back to the fence, and Topuria dings him on the way down with a speedy left to follow. Herzog sprints between them to save Volkanovski from any further punishment, as the champion is no longer conscious—and no longer the champion. Topuria hammers any final nail with a few right hands until Herzog reaches him to pull him off of the downed Aussie. Incredible! Spain and Georgia now have a UFC champion, and his name is Ilia Topuria. The new champ is now an undefeated 15-0 with 13 finishes, with none bigger than this stunning moment. Topuria springs the only betting upset of the evening, starching one of the greatest to ever do it with one monumental punch. Welcome to the Topuria era.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Alexander Volkanovski R2 3:32 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Alexander Volkanovski, citing his dominance at featherweight and well-rounded skills. He acknowledges Topuria's power and wrestling but notes Topuria hasn't faced anyone as skilled as Volkanovski. He is concerned about Volkanovski's recent knockout loss but believes he has defied age-related stats before. He will not bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision. He argues that Topuria hasn't proven himself against top competition, with his best wins being Bryce Mitchell and an aging Josh Emmett. He believes Volkanovski is on another level, having beaten Max Holloway three times and Jose Aldo. He acknowledges the narratives about Volkanovski's age and drinking but thinks the line is too close, calling a Topuria win a major upset.
Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing Volkanovski's status as the featherweight GOAT and his near-win over Islam Makhachev. He questions Topuria's competition level (Jay Herbert, Bryce Mitchell, Josh Emmett) compared to Volkanovski's resume. He notes Topuria's potential cardio issues in the fifth round, as he took off the fifth against Emmett. He favors the champ's pressure and volume at even money.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing a changing of the guard. He emphasizes Topuria's youth, less damage taken, and well-rounded skills including submission grappling and striking. He notes Volkanovski's recent knockout loss, weight cut issues, and age as concerns, but says his pick was made before those factors. He believes Topuria can match Volkanovski's output and has the heart to survive adversity, as shown in his comeback from head kick knockdowns.
Volkanovski is the most complete featherweight possibly ever. He will execute a master game plan, stifle Topuria's power punching, and grind on the mat. Topuria is a high-level prospect but this is a huge step up. Expects Volkanovski to hand out a veteran lesson and win by decision.
Paul believes the line is skewed by Volkanovski's short-notice loss to Makhachev. He thinks Volkanovski can secure takedowns and hang out in guard, avoiding Topuria's power. He cites Volkanovski's volume, pace, and experience against top competition like Brian Ortega. He feels the line should be closer to -175, so even money is a trap in his favor.
The MMA Guru picks Ilia Topuria, citing his power, grappling, and momentum. He notes Volkanovski's recent KO loss to Makhachev, his drinking, and the weight cut. He believes Topuria's boxing and power will be key, and that Volkanovski's chin may be suspect. He predicts a KO in round two, with Volkanovski complaining about an early stoppage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 0 | 87 of 305 | 28% | 89 of 309 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 1 | 152 of 344 | 44% | 171 of 365 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 14 of 68 | 20% | 14 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 21 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 19 of 68 | 27% | 19 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 30 of 75 | 40% | 30 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 31 of 81 | 38% | 31 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 37 of 91 | 40% | 37 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 13 of 52 | 25% | 15 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 1 | 56 of 100 | 56% | 62 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 5 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 10 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 21 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 87 of 305 | 28% | 43 of 232 | 26 of 53 | 18 of 20 | 87 of 305 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 152 of 344 | 44% | 124 of 302 | 9 of 16 | 19 of 26 | 114 of 289 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 53 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 14 of 68 | 20% | 8 of 58 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 21 of 56 | 37% | 14 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 21 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 19 of 68 | 27% | 8 of 47 | 6 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 19 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 30 of 75 | 40% | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 25 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 31 of 81 | 38% | 16 of 60 | 7 of 12 | 8 of 9 | 31 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 37 of 91 | 40% | 30 of 80 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 37 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Ilia Topuria | 13 of 52 | 25% | 6 of 39 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 56 of 100 | 56% | 50 of 90 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 26 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 43 | |
| 5 | Ilia Topuria | 10 of 36 | 27% | 5 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 8 of 22 | 36% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-320), Emmett (+265)
Round 1
We have reached the main event after a fairly lengthy midday event. It should be a treat that presents a great deal of excitement, giving the Jacksonville fans one last brawl. Coming off an unsuccessful shot at the interim strap, Emmett (18-3, 9-3 UFC) wants to show at 38 he is not done yet. On the other side of the equation, 12 years Emmett’s junior, Topuria (13-0, 5-0 UFC) is undefeated and fast on the rise with violence in spades. Chins will almost certainly be tested before it is all said and done, and referee Marc Goddard receives the honor of officiating this hopefully thrilling headliner. There is nothing but respect between the two, as they tap their gloves together before the hostilities commence. Emmett blitzes forward right out of the gate, making the Georgian retreat early as Emmett bears down on him. Topuria is no worse for wear, and Emmett targets the body and head with surges of punches. Emmett circles around his relatively stationary adversary, and he stumbles as he drops low. Emmett gets up and goes back to potshotting Topuria with power range punches. Topuria sits down on a right hand counter, giving Emmett a little pause to advance recklessly. The two start trading furiously from up close, and Topuria backs off and targets the body. Emmett takes a solid right hand on the jaw, and he keeps moving and swaying. Topuria reaches him with an uppercut to the midsection, and he leans back from a swatting combo coming back at him. They trade left hooks, and Topuria flicks out several jabs to mark up Emmett’s face. Emmett throws so hard he nearly falls over, putting everything he has into his punches. Topuria’s guard is able to protect him from the worst of the blows, and he sees the wide looping right hands from afar. Topuria lands a low kick and keeps active with a jab, and he absorbs a flush right hand on the cheek. Topuria drills a kick that makes Emmett turn around, and he intercepts an advancing Emmett with another calf kick and a jab. A cut on the corner of Emmett’s eye opens up, and Emmett ignores it and throws caution to the wins with a chopping kick and an overhand right. Topuria jabs his way into an exchange, and Emmett is right there to stand and bang. Emmett reaches out with a right hand, and he clips Topuria with a check left hook while Topuria is backing away. Topuria closes in and wings two punches, and the tense round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 2
The second round opens with a glove touch, and the swelling around Emmett’s left eye has grown. Emmett strikes first with a leg kick, and he comes up just short with two looping hooks. Topuria jabs effectively to stifle Emmett’s best offense, and Emmett responds with multiple body shots. Topuria chops at the lead wheel and pokes out with a jab, which reminds Emmett that he can also jab as well. Emmett lunges with a few punches, and the low kick at the end of his strikes connects. Topuria pulls back on a few big strikes, and Emmett closes in and pops him with a left hook. Topuria does not let him off the hook, landing with his own blow. Emmett lumps up the calf with a kick, and he charges in with four punches. Topuria counters him cleanly with a single right hand to make Emmett think twice, and he settles down with a hard low kick. Topuria beats Emmett to the punch with a right hook, and his speed is giving Emmett fits thus far. Emmett checks a low kick and wings a right hand that glances off the side. Topuria is frequently moving when Emmett loads up on his big right hook, and this lets very few of them land flush. The jabs from Topuria have bloodied up Emmett’s nose as well, and it snaps out and is met with a left hook on the way in. Topuria chains a few punches together and backs off when Emmett bullrushes him. Emmett slips on the way in, and Topuria takes advantage of this by smashing him in the face with a right hand. Emmett gets his back against the ropes, and he swings with bad intentions and drops Topuria. The Spanish/Georgian fighter scampers back to his feet and is not overly concerned, and he returns to his tactic of jabs and low kicks. Emmett brushes his right hand over the hair, and he checks a kick on the way back. Topuria slides out of the way of a big shot from Emmett, and he cracks the Californian with a right hand. Emmett drops to his hands, and Topuria rushes down and starts smacking him upside the head. Topuria lets go when Emmett rears back with a right hand, and the second frame wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 3
The two reach the third round and begin trading, and Topuria slides back and kicks the lead calf of Emmett. Emmett staggers from the damage, and he gathers his thoughts and wings an overhand right. Topuria comes at him throwing two big shots, and Emmett goes high with a kick. Emmett slams his shin on the calf twice, and he jabs Topuria when Topuria closes the distance. Emmett chips with another kick and misses with an overhand right, and Topuria just comes up short with his own counter. As Emmett ducks down to throw him off, Topuria follows him. Emmett catches Topuria with a left hook, and Topuria snipes him with a left hook back and connects with a leg kick. The featherweights crash together with fierce fists, and Emmett tags Topuria with a few huge punches. Topuria gives it right back, and he slashes open a cut on the cheek while also advancing Emmett’s swelling. Emmett stings Topuria with a right hand on the temple, and they clack their shins together with simultaneous kicks. Emmett digs a left to the body, and he is intercepted with a short right hand. Topuria knocks his man back with a jab, and he eats a clean right hand without batting an eye. Topuria measures Emmett with accurate jabs and follow-up punches, while Emmett meets him in the middle and bangs. Emmett walks through a leg kick, and they proceed to swing for the fences. Topuria snaps his jab out brilliantly, and Emmett’s left eye is almost closed. Emmett uses his own jab to decent effect, but its volume is nowhere near the unbeaten fighter’s. Topuria strings a few punches together to bust Emmett’s face up badly, and the side of it is covered in red. Emmett ducks a few punches to counter, and he pops Topuria in the chops with a left hook. Emmett beats Topuria to the punch with a right hand, and he waves Topuria on to brawl with him. Emmett overswings with his punches, and he targets the body and lead calf as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Emmett
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Emmett
Round 4
We have ourselves a fight as the two reach the championship rounds, and they clap hands to get started. Emmett wades into the fray, landing at the end of a few punches as Topuria’s movement has slowed to a small degree. Emmett blitzes, and Topuria hops out of the way to evade most of the strikes. Topuria sticks out a jab, and he pins a one-two on the chin when Emmett chops at his calf. Topuria flicks out a few more jabs, and Emmett goes over the top with a big right. Topuria continues to work his jab, and Emmett aims a punch to the chest and one to the ribs. Topuria nails his foe with a leg kick, and Emmett has to hop back for a second to get his bearings. Emmett reaches out with a right hook, but Topuria is able to lean back and zip out a few jabs and a one-two. Emmett looks for a left to the body, and he gets his calf kicked and he squats down after it lands hard. Emmett rushes with looping shots that Topuria is able to avoid without problems, and when that one fails, he blitzes a second time. The body shot from Emmett does score, and Topuria’s jab snaps Emmet’s head back. Topuria times a big right hand to counter with one of his own, and he spins away before Emmett can reach him. Two punches from Topuria knock Emmett off-balance, and he learns that he is in trouble before his body does. Emmett falls to the ground, and Topuria beats on him in an effort to stop the fight. Emmett’s toughness is off the charts, as he survives the barrage of unanswered punches and gets back to his feet. Emmett climbs up with the fence behind him and wings power punches, but Topuria is faster and more accurate. A vicious leg kick and second flurry from “El Matador” knocks Emmett of his feet again, and he jumps straight into mount and tries to finish the job with his fists. Topuria drops down punches and hammerfists, and Emmett turns to his stomach and manages to survive to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 5
Between rounds, Goddard calls in the doctor to check on the swelling and damage of Emmett’s face. Emmett is able to pass the vision tests, and he informs Goddard he is more than willing to keep fighting despite his disfigurement. The two featherweights touch ‘em up one final time to begin the last round, and Emmett is a man possessed. Emmett charges with everything he has, and he rocks Topuria with a huge right hand. Topuria bounces off the fencing several times, in a surprisingly bad way, and Emmett gives chase swinging bombs. Emmett checks a kick, and Topuria gets back to his rhythm of jabs and calf kicks. Emmett hops around to get some feeling back in his leg, and he kicks with his other one. Emmett walks through a jab to lob a left hook, and he is throwing haymakers that Topuria is barely dodging. Emmett whiffs on a huge left hand, and he kicks the calf while Topuria is jabbing him. Emmett strikes the body and fires off massive hooks, and Topuria sees them coming and blocks them. Emmett reaches Topuria with a shovel left hook, and Topuria keeps moving so that he does not present as a stationary target. Emmett goes to the body with a left and bring a right over the top, and he swings with a subsequent left that opens him up to a takedown attempt. Topuria lands in half guard from his successful double, and Emmett turns to his side and works to a knee. Emmett wipes at his badly swollen eye as Topuria holds on from behind, although he cannot explode back up to his feet. Topuria clings to Emmett as precious seconds tick off the clock, and he manages to hit a mat return. Emmett scrambles, and the two roll around until Topuria follows to get the back again. Emmett works his way up, thanks in part to a fence grab, and Topuria wrenches him right back down. Topuria takes the back and flattens Emmett out for a moment, but Emmett turns to his side once more as he uses all of his last remaining energy to get up. Topuria punches Emmett on the side of the head a few more times for good measure, and Emmett muscles his way to his feet right at the sound of the final bell. These two featherweights have gone the distance after five violent rounds, and the stock of the younger Topuria is going to climb significantly after this excellent showing. Topuria will advance himself to a clean 14-0 as a pro, with two decision wins on his ledger now. In victory, “El Matador” declares himself as “the next guy” for the featherweight belt, and he wants to take on Alexander Volkanovski to become the first one to beat him at this weight class. There is little time to savor this, as the UFC train will keep on rolling. The next show will be in the UFC Apex in a week, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (49-45 Topuria)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (50-45 Topuria)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (49-46 Topuria)
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Josh Emmett via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-42, 49-45)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria, citing his phenomenal wrestling, speed, power, and ability to adjust on the fly. He notes Topuria is the better wrestler, faster, and hits just as hard as Emmett. He acknowledges Emmett has insane power and Topuria has been rocked before, but outside of a lucky punch, Emmett won't have much to offer. He says the 3-to-1 odds seem correct.
Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria, believing he should win but notes the line is wide. He emphasizes Topuria's elite grappling and BJJ black belt, which he should use to take Emmett down. He has concerns about Topuria's cardio if the fight goes deep and his tendency to get hit, as seen against Jai Herbert. He predicts a first-round submission, but acknowledges a knockout is possible. He notes Emmett's power and age (38) as factors.
Cody picks Topuria but with hesitation, citing concerns about Topuria's cardio in a five-round fight and the step up in competition. He notes Emmett's power and experience, and suggests this fight is better for live betting. He ultimately sides with Topuria due to youth and skills but is wary of the hype.
Connor picks Topuria, focusing on the question of whether Topuria can fight outside the pocket and if Emmett can keep him out. He argues that Emmett is a potshotter who struggles when opponents force prolonged exchanges, as seen against Yair Rodriguez. Connor believes Topuria's boxing defense and counter-punching are reliable against Emmett's headhunting, but notes the massive caveat that Emmett's power is a constant threat, especially given Topuria's history of being hurt.
Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's youth (12 years younger), superior boxing, and better jiu-jitsu. He believes Topuria will outbox and finish Emmett in the mid to late rounds. He acknowledges Emmett's power and wrestling but thinks Topuria's cardio concerns are overblown, noting Topuria's short-notice fight against Yusuff. He also mentions Topuria's ability to mix in takedowns and his overall versatility. He is not betting at -310 but is confident in the pick.
The host picks Ilia Topuria to win but is hesitant due to the line being too wide at around -300. He notes that Josh Emmett has tremendous experience against high-level competition and that Topuria hasn't proven himself against a fighter of Emmett's caliber. He suggests value on Emmett's side and expects violence, possibly a finish from either fighter. He ultimately goes with Topuria but advises against betting the moneyline at current odds.
Paul picks Topuria, acknowledging his elite boxing and jiu-jitsu, but notes the only question mark is his chin after being dropped by Jai Herbert. He thinks the line is accurate and that Topuria outclasses Emmett in many departments, but he won't tie himself financially to this fight.
The Guru picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's youth (26 vs 38), longer layoff without damage, and superior combination punching. He notes Emmett's tendency to throw only 1-2 shots before resetting, while Topuria strings together multi-punch combinations with pauses that can catch Emmett coming out of his own exchanges. He also mentions Emmett's quick turnaround after a war with Yair Rodriguez and brutal weight cuts as potential factors. However, he acknowledges both have one-punch KO power and calls it a dangerous fight, closer to 60-40 than the lopsided public polling suggests.
Zane picks Topuria, emphasizing that Emmett's style is vulnerable to aggressive pressure fighters who don't respect his power, as seen in losses to Yair Rodriguez and Jeremy Stephens. He notes Topuria's superior boxing technique and body punching, but acknowledges the risk of Topuria's recklessness and Emmett's one-shot power. Zane sees Topuria as the more skilled pocket fighter but warns that Emmett could land a fight-ending shot at any moment.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 0 | 36 of 82 | 43% | 46 of 94 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 1 | 40 of 77 | 51% | 53 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 31 of 64 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 27 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 1 | 23 of 39 | 58% | 26 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 36 of 82 | 43% | 22 of 57 | 11 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 40 of 77 | 51% | 34 of 63 | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 64 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 21 of 52 | 40% | 13 of 38 | 6 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 17 of 38 | 44% | 12 of 27 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 15 of 30 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 23 of 39 | 58% | 22 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 9 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-135), Mitchell (+115)
Round 1
In this main card opener, only one undefeated fighter will remain shortly. Entering into his seventh outing as a UFC fighter, “Thug Nasty” Mitchell (15-0, 6-0 UFC) would very much like to spoil the fellow perfect record of Topuria (12-0, 4-0 UFC), all while sporting special camouflage fight shorts. Topuria does not receive special apparel, but he does celebrate a 92% finish rate that could play a factor very soon. 2022 Referee of the Year award winner Marc Goddard is on the call for this important featherweight pairing, and the fighters he oversees do not bother touching gloves first. Topuria stays low, and he wades forward into action. After Mitchell leads off with a kick to the knee and a side kick, Topuria blasts the Arkansas native in the face with four powerful punches. Topuria digs into the lead calf with a kick to force an immediate stance switch, and Mitchell shoots in for a takedown that fails. Topuria meet him in the middle and catches Michell cleanly with a right hand, and Mitchell responds with a few solid jabs and a low kick. Topuria connects with a right hand down Broadway, and Mitchell replies with a left. The single hooks from Topuria get around the guard and get Mitchell’s attention, with his right finding the target again and again. Mitchell tosses out a front kick that aims at the face, and he shoots for a failed takedown that Topuria easily avoids. As they clash together, a cut opens on the inner left eyebrow of the American. Mitchell lines up two punches and changes levels for a low single, but Topuria springs away to push his back to the wall. Topuria nearly turns things around, forcing Mitchell to drop to a knee, and ultimately stopping the entry. Mitchell releases the clinch and gets off a body shot, but Topuria rings his bell with an overhand right. “El Matador” throws two punches so hard he stumbles, but Mitchell does not capitalize on this and instead allows Topuria to return to striking stance. Topuria dodges a kick and uses head movement to work his way in, and Mitchell crashes forward and practically tackles Topuria to put him on his back. “Thug Nasty” lands in half guard, but Topuria pulls him back to the guard and boxes the ear from off his back. Mitchell scores a few punches, but Topuria stings him with a left hand off his back. Mitchell rides out the top position until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 2
Mitchell starts the second round rushing forward, but ultimately he walks into two lightning-quick punches. Mitchell attempts to respond with a side kick, but Topuria pushes it aside and stuffs a takedown try. When Mitchell stands up, Topuria nails his man in the face with a pair of strikes. Mitchell recovers and gets backed off by the swinging offense of his opponent, and they clash together again and may bump heads, but Mitchell cannot ground him with another effort. Mitchell looks to time the overhand right with takedown tries, but time and time again, he falls short. Topuria overthrows a punch, and Mitchell gets his attention with a short combo that fires up the crowd. Topuria sets up an uppercut with two punches to follow it, and he knocks the Arkansan off his feet and down to the mat. Topuria leaps down to possibly pull off a neck-based choke, but a bloodied Mitchell welcomes this so that he can set up a scramble or go for a submission. Topuria does not let him off the hook, bludgeoning him repeatedly with thunderous blows until Mitchell works his way up. Mitchell attempts to get a takedown when Topuria is laying into him, but Topuria throws him over to the mat like a kid wrestling with his dad. A deflated Mitchell tries with all his might to turn or twist, and he manages to sit up. This is not the best position for him, as Topuria snatches on to a seated arm-triangle choke and hurls Mitchell back down, with the submission exceptionally tight. The submission specialist Mitchell, who had won 15 fights as a pro – the loss the UFC claimed took place on “The Ultimate Fighter” and was an exhibition match – surrenders for the first time in his career. This is a massive victory for Topuria, who stamps himself as a featherweight contender and calls for a UFC card in Spain.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Bryce Mitchell R2 3:10 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo is extremely confident Topuria wins, calling him a world-class wrestler from Georgia who can outstrike and outwrestle Mitchell. He compares it to Roman Dolidze vs Jack Hermansson, where the world-class wrestler dominated. He has a moneyline bet on Topuria placed earlier and is shocked Topuria isn't a 9-1 favorite. He believes Mitchell's Arkansas wrestling is no match for Topuria's lifelong Georgian wrestling.
Big Brady slightly leans toward Bryce Mitchell as a dog, citing Mitchell's superior cardio and wrestling. He notes Topuria has shown cardio issues in his only decision win, while Mitchell has improved striking and can push a pace. He expects a back-and-forth war with Mitchell edging out a split decision, but has low confidence.
Cody picks Bryce Mitchell, citing his development, wrestling, durability, and cardio. He thinks Mitchell's pressure and takedowns will be key, and that Topuria's wrestling may not be enough to stop him. He notes Topuria's close fight with Herbert Burns and that Mitchell has better cardio and can take over late. He predicts Mitchell by decision.
Connor picks Mitchell, citing his versatility, wrestling, and ability to take advantage of opportunities. He notes Topuria has a narrow approach and Mitchell has proven he can adapt and take fights where he wants. Connor believes Mitchell's takedowns and top control will be decisive, as Topuria hasn't faced a grappler of Mitchell's caliber.
Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to hand Bryce Mitchell his first loss. He is impressed by Topuria's fast-twitch athleticism, nasty hands, body work, and Greco-Roman wrestling background. Levi notes Topuria's ability to stuff takedowns and his proven heart (coming back from a head kick knockdown). He believes Topuria's athleticism and well-rounded game will be too much for Mitchell, who relies on relentless takedown attempts. Levi acknowledges Mitchell's toughness and top control but thinks Topuria can sprawl and brawl, making Mitchell pay for his shots.
Lock likes Topuria on the moneyline and on PredictionStrike, noting that at -130 and $1.75 on PredictionStrike, there is good value. He acknowledges question marks about Topuria's third round against Yousuff and getting rocked by Jai Herbert, but credits him for battling back from adversity. He believes Topuria has tremendous potential and that the hype is justified, though he needs to prove it. He recommends taking Topuria on PredictionStrike and moneyline, while for Mitchell, he suggests just the moneyline as a dog.
Paul picks Mitchell, noting his intelligence in the fight and ability to pick his spots. He thinks Mitchell's wrestling and submission threat will be a factor, and that Topuria's power and speed are dangerous early. He suggests a Mitchell round 3 prop or live betting, as Mitchell may take over later. He is not fully confident but leans Mitchell.
The MMA Guru picks Ilia Topuria over Bryce Mitchell by first-round TKO via body shots. He respects Mitchell's skills but believes Topuria's boxing is too clean and he will push Mitchell backwards, ripping body shots. He notes Topuria's scrambling ability and submission threats, and thinks Mitchell will struggle to get takedowns. He predicts Topuria finishes him early.
Zane picks Topuria, citing his confidence on the ground from the Ryan Hall fight and his superior athleticism. He believes Topuria's grappling will get him back to his feet repeatedly, and his striking pressure will force Mitchell to process the fight too often. Zane notes Mitchell's striking gaps when he's indecisive, and Topuria's body punching will be key.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 1 | 22 of 63 | 34% | 50 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jai Herbert | 1 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 31 of 55 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 1 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 47 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 23 of 41 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:38 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jai Herbert | 1 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 22 of 63 | 34% | 20 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Jai Herbert | 20 of 41 | 48% | 17 of 37 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 19 of 47 | 40% | 18 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Jai Herbert | 12 of 27 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 3 of 16 | 18% | 2 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jai Herbert | 8 of 14 | 57% | 6 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Kicking off the main card is a classic stylistic battle when the appropriately titled “Black Country Banger” Herbert (11-3, 1-2 UFC) faces off against Spanish submission threat Topuria (11-0, 3-0 UFC) in the lightweight division. Trying to keep a lid on what is sure to be a fast-paced tilt will be referee Marc Goddard, although he does not need to worry about disrespect as the two touch gloves first. Herbert bounces up and down before snapping out a jab, and he steps in with a knee when Topuria advances towards him. Herbert keeps his opponent at bay with long, rangy strikes, getting the smaller Topuria’s attention quickly. Herbert lets his hands go and follows it with a head kick, dropping Topuria in the opening minute, and the audience bursts into cheers for their local man. “El Matador” springs back to his feet and crashes forward to go after a takedown, pushing Herbert all the way back to the cage but not getting him down. After multiple fence grabs from Herbert, Topuria is finally able to lift him up off the ground and slam him to the mat with emphasis. Topuria lands in side control, where he starts to isolate Herbert’s right arm and set up a crucifix. The scrambling Brit is able to recover his position, and he drags Topuria all the way back to his guard. Topuria madly dashes to try to pass guard, smashing Herbert in the face a few times, and he gets kicked off briefly but dives back on top. Herbert ties Topuria up, defending himself from much offense and keeping Topuria in his guard, but Topuria slowly works his way to open up on punches. Herbert scrambles, and he forces his way back to his feet and blasts Topuria with a back-elbow. Topuria is wobbled, and Herbert drills him with a long combination that knocks Topuria back. Goddard stops the fight for a second to replace Topuria’s mouthpiece, as it had been knocked out from the heavy punches from the Brit. Topuria gathers himself, as Herbert lets him off the hook and allows the Georgian to attack with winging punches. Herbert intercepts his man with a knee as Topuria comes in, and the mouthpiece goes flying again in a cinematic fashion. Topuria’s chin holds up, and the two lightweights furiously slug it out to the bell. What a round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Round 2
The second round begins with Topuria aggressive, stalking Herbert down and trying to take the Brit’s reach advantage away from him. Topuria wings a right hand that just misses as Herbert kicks the body, and Herbert ducks back by an inch to avoid the massive blow. Herbert aims an uppercut that comes up short, and he strafes back and forth while Topuria comes after him.
With bad intentions in his eyes, Topuria stalks Herbert down and wings a few punches at him. Herbert reaches out with a jab, and “El Matador” unleashes a right behind the ear, a thudding left to the body and an earthshattering right hand flush on the chin that sends Herbert collapsing to the ground in a crumpled heap.
As the crowd goes completely silent, Topuria walks away without bothering to deliver a follow-up blow, with Herbert out cold beneath him. Making the most of his post-fight interview moment, Topuria does not call for bonus money – his work should speak for itself – but instead sets his sights on “that blonde b---ch” Paddy Pimblett. Should Pimblett win later tonight, matchmakers can take the day off as that came together without them having to budge.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Jai Herbert R2 1:07 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria to win by stoppage, citing his well-rounded game and ability to win on the feet or via wrestling. He notes that Jai Herbert has been taken down multiple times by opponents like Moicano and Trinaldo, and expects Topuria to do the same. He plans to bet on an Ilia Topuria wins inside the distance prop.
Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria to win by first-round submission. He notes Topuria is moving up a weight class on short notice and faces a massive size disadvantage, but he believes Topuria's grappling is elite and Jai Herbert has shown horrendous takedown defense and a weak chin. Brady expects Topuria to take the fight to the mat and submit Herbert quickly, as Herbert has little ground game and poor durability.
Cody picks Topuria as a lock, citing his superior grappling and Herbert's weak chin. He thinks Topuria can win by submission or KO, and notes that Herbert has been knocked out by lesser fighters. He calls Topuria the top ticket.
Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria, but with reservations. He notes that Topuria has finished all his UFC fights in the first round except against a short-notice opponent, where he gassed. Levi believes Topuria's ground game is a huge advantage, as Herbert has poor wrestling and chin issues. However, he warns against overhyping Topuria, as Herbert has a puncher's chance with his reach and power. Levi expects a finish inside the distance.
Topuria should replicate what Moicano did to Herbert: get the fight to the ground and use superior jiu-jitsu for a finish. Herbert is a good striker but struggles against grapplers with heavy top pressure. 23 of 25 fights for these two haven't gone to decision, and that trend should continue. The fight doesn't go to decision at -350 is a better bet than Topuria straight. I'm picking Topuria via first-round submission.
Paul picks Topuria as a lock, emphasizing Herbert's defensive liabilities and Topuria's all-around game. He notes that Herbert has been knocked out by lesser punchers and that Topuria's grappling is a major threat. He agrees Topuria is the top ticket.
The Guru picks Ilia Topuria but thinks the odds are too wide; he should be around -200. He notes Jai Herbert's weak chin and lack of physical strength, calling him a 'malnourished lightweight.' He believes Topuria's grappling and power will be too much, predicting a first-round TKO. He acknowledges an upset is possible but favors Topuria's skill set.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ryan Hall | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ryan Hall | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 10 of 17 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ryan Hall | 18 of 32 | 56% | 11 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 24 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 10 of 17 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ryan Hall | 18 of 32 | 56% | 11 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 24 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The next matchup is a highly anticipated featherweight tilt between the returning grappling wizard Hall (8-1, 4-0 UFC) against the unbeaten Spaniard Topuria (10-0, 2-0 UFC). Something’s gotta give between these two, with Hall’s last loss coming in 2006 while Topuria has yet to taste defeat. Referee Jason Herzog will be taking charge to make sure everything is above board, and a half-hearted glove touch is what we get to start the fight. Hall meets him in the center of the cage and backs away, circling around the cage while Topuria stalks him down. Hall lands the first strike, a kick to the body, and Topuria just looks at him. Hall pump-fakes a possible takedown to get a reaction out of the Spaniard, and he hits him with a spinning hook kick. Hall rolls for an Imanari roll to pursue a leg, and Topuria does not bite, kicks his outstretched leg a few times and lets him stand back up. Hall whiffs on a left hand, and another as he rolls for some sort of a tackle to grab Topuria’s leg. Once more, Topuria shrugs it off and lets Hall somersault around to miss. Hall’s fourth roll manages to snare Topuria, and he grabs Topuria’s glove to hold on to him but cannot keep him grounded. Hall rolls through and elbows Topuria in the side of the head, and Topuria takes his back and lands a few punches before breaking free. Hall walks into a few punches, and Topuria gets confident as he cracks Hall with a right hand. Hall flops to roll and take him down, and he lets Topuria wade into his guard but Topuria springs out of the way. Hall ducks a punch with his hands down, and he boots Topuria in the body twice. “The Wizard” rolls through a few more times, and Topuria never bites so the crowd begins to turn on him. The Spaniard stings him with a right hand, and Hall ducks down to roll and grab a heel but cannot get it. Hall continues to roll around and pop back up as if he were in a gymnastics class, and Topuria walks into a right hand but darts out of the way from yet another Hall roll. Hall connects with a spinning heel kick, and he dodges and weaves from any Topuria aggression. When Hall attempts another heel kick, Topuria closes the distance to bully Hall to the ground.
“El Matador” dives after him and stuns him with hammerfists, and his right hand starts to do damage as he continues to club Hall on the chin again and again. As Hall turns to his side, he has no where else to go and is trapped, and Topuria keeps smashing him in the face. The damage mounts until Hall is relieved of his consciousness, and Herzog steps in to stop the fight.
This is a huge win for the undefeated Topuria, who may have just earned a spot on the rankings with a smart performance.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Ryan Hall R1 4:47 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Topuria, believing the sport has passed Hall by. He notes Topuria has superior wrestling, traditional jiu-jitsu, and striking. He doesn't see Hall catching Topuria in a submission. He agrees with the DraftKings price and odds.
Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria to win by decision. He notes Topuria is good everywhere, a great striker with power, a solid wrestler, and a black belt in BJJ. He thinks Topuria can close the distance and keep the fight on the feet, avoiding Hall's guard. He acknowledges Hall's tricky style and underrated striking, but believes Topuria's youth, activity, and game plan will prevail. He mentions a possible knockout but leans decision.
Cody picks Topuria, citing his body work, power, and takedown defense. He notes Hall's dangerous jiu-jitsu but thinks Topuria's striking and physicality will be too much. He expects Topuria to win by decision or TKO.
Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to win. He respects Ryan Hall's unique leglock game and spin kicks, but believes Topuria's confidence, youth, and well-rounded skills will neutralize Hall. He notes that Topuria has knockout power, good grappling, and heart, as shown when he got dropped and came back to win. He worries that Topuria's overconfidence could lead him to engage on the mat, but thinks he has the goods to win. He finds the plus 200 on Hall tempting but sticks with Topuria.
Jacob is extremely confident in Hall, calling it his most confident lock of the week ever. He believes Hall's unorthodox jiu-jitsu and kicks will lead to a submission. He notes Hall's ability to incorporate kicks to set up takedowns and that nobody wants to fight him. He plans to bet on Hall at plus odds.
I'm going with Topuria by KO. He is a young, hot prospect with great grappling and striking. Hall is wild and unorthodox, but Topuria's striking is much better. Topuria can also grapple with Hall if needed. I think Topuria will land a knockout after accumulating damage, probably in the second or third round. I like Topuria inside the distance and by KO.
Paul picks Topuria, noting his well-rounded skills, youth, and improvement. He thinks Topuria's takedown defense and striking will neutralize Hall's jiu-jitsu. He expects Topuria to dictate where the fight takes place and win by decision.
The Guru predicts Topuria will win by first-round KO. He expects Hall to dive for leg locks and use imanari rolls, but Topuria will escape and kick Hall's leg while Hall is on his back. Hall will get back up and throw wheel kicks, but each time Topuria will close the distance and smother him. Topuria will work the body throughout, causing Hall to hunch over. Then Topuria will land a lead left hook to the body followed by a right hand over the top to knock Hall out.
Jai Herbert - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mandel Nallo | 1 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Jai Herbert | 2 | 19 of 28 | 67% | 30 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mandel Nallo | 1 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Jai Herbert | 2 | 19 of 28 | 67% | 30 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mandel Nallo | 16 of 31 | 51% | 13 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jai Herbert | 19 of 28 | 67% | 18 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mandel Nallo | 16 of 31 | 51% | 13 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jai Herbert | 19 of 28 | 67% | 18 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 13 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nallo (-180); Herbert (+150)
Round 1
A youthful 36 years of age, lightweight finisher Nallo (19-5, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC) finally reached the top echelon of the sport after wallowing in the ranks of Bellator with seemingly little to show for it. To succeed in his UFC debut, he will have to get through “The Black Country Banger” Herbert (13-6-1, 3-5-1 UFC) and his iron fists. Before those fists meet faces, they are bumped together ceremoniously to kick off the bout.
Jason Herzog will be the referee for the promotional debut of “Rat Garbage.” That is his nickname, no matter if he calls himself “Mango” now. It does not take long for Nallo to get Herbert’s attention, kicking him in the face. Herbert stumbles and tries to fire back, but the high kick is finding the dome of the Brit cleanly. Nallo blasts Herbert with another and knocks him back to the wall, nearly dropping him with a clean right hand behind the ear. Herbert takes the punches on the chin and somehow steels himself to swing back with everything he has. He catches Nallo with a thunderous right hand, and shockingly puts Nallo on his seat. Herbert beats down his opponent with hammerfists as Herzog is about to step in, but Nallo rolls for a leglock to show he is still with it and manages to fight his way back to his feet. When Herbert separates and lands again, Nallo’s legs are still not beneath him. Herbert walks Nallo down and drills him with a right hand, resulting in Nallo raising his eyebrow at him.
Nallo goes after a body kick, and three crisp punches from Herbert knock him back down again. Nallo turns to his side in hopes of defending himself, but this time as an onslaught of fists relentlessly rain down, Herzog has no choice but to wave things off while Nallo’s mouth sprays blood from the oncoming fire.
Nallo lays on his back and screams a disappointed profanity, but he is fine with the stoppage and nods to Herzog that he is ultimately ok—or will be soon enough. The Canadian crowd, seeing their athlete getting smoked, does not appear upset as the few minutes of their battle was that thrilling and engaging.
The Official Result
Jai Herbert def. Mandel Nallo R1 2:05 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Mandel Nallo, citing his diverse striking, kicks, and finishing ability. He criticizes Jai Herbert for hesitating and not throwing enough, noting his only notable moment was almost knocking out Ilia Topuria. He believes Mandel's counter-striking and grappling will secure the win.
Big Brady confidently picks Mandel Nallo, criticizing Jai Herbert's boring, point-fighting style and lack of chin. He notes Nallo has 14 wins, all under 1.5 rounds, and expects a first-round knockout. Brady expresses hope that Herbert gets cut after the fight.
Cody picks Mandel Nallo, citing his higher volume and better ground game compared to Jai Herbert's low output. He notes that Herbert tends to fade and that Nallo has been training with high-level fighters. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.
Daniel is impressed by Nallo's striking and believes Herbert's chin is questionable. He thinks Nallo's power will be too much for Herbert, despite Nallo's history of fading in longer fights. He predicts a devastating knockout win for Nallo.
Nallo is a complete unknown after three years away; his last fights were low-level. Herbert is more experienced but chinny. No strong opinion; if forced, lean Herbert due to value. Not betting this fight.
James picks Mandel Nallo to win via knockout in round one. He believes Nallo's funky striking and early power will be too much for Jai Herbert, who has chin issues. If the fight goes past round one, he leans Herbert, but he expects an early finish.
The host mentions Mandel Nallo getting a big stage but does not make a pick for the fight.
The host is surprised by the love on Nallo but thinks he has more paths to victory, including power striking and a BJJ black belt. He expects Nallo to land a big shot and put Herbert away, but thinks the fight will be closer than the odds indicate. He would stay off the fight unless Nallo's line drops to around -125.
Paul leans towards Mandel Nallo but prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop. He notes that Nallo is a finisher and that Herbert's fights often go to decision, but this matchup might end inside the distance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 38 of 122 | 31% | 59 of 143 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 39 of 98 | 39% | 88 of 147 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 29 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 | |
| 2 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 7 of 42 | 16% | 12 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 32 of 51 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 | |
| 3 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 28 of 64 | 43% | 30 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 17 of 42 | 40% | 27 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 38 of 122 | 31% | 19 of 92 | 10 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 37 of 120 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Padilla | 39 of 98 | 39% | 20 of 60 | 6 of 9 | 13 of 29 | 35 of 94 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 3 of 16 | 18% | 0 of 9 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Padilla | 9 of 24 | 37% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jai Herbert | 7 of 42 | 16% | 4 of 33 | 0 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Padilla | 13 of 32 | 40% | 6 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 11 | 11 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jai Herbert | 28 of 64 | 43% | 15 of 50 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 27 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Padilla | 17 of 42 | 40% | 11 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 15 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Herbert (-125), Padilla (+105)
Round 1
Lukasz Bosacki will ref this featured preliminary bout at lightweight. It’s a very deliberate opening minute. Padilla lands a right over the top during an initial exchange. Halfway through the round and not much in the way of offense has landed. A Herbert kick hits Padilla’s forearm. A kick from Herbert lands below the belt, but Padilla doesn’t need a pause. A front kick finds the range for Herbert. Padilla shoots for a takedown and pushes Herbet into the fence. Padilla with some knees to the thighs late in the round. Padilla keeps the position, landing periodic knees until the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Round 2
Herbert probes with a front kick. A Herbert head kick partially lands as Padilla throws a body kick at the same time. Padilla steps in with a body kick. Once again, offense is coming at a premium. Padilla sticks a jab. Padilla grabs a body lock after an ill-advised spinning kick by Herbert. Padilla has underhooks against the fence and he’s content to grind away her. Herbert tries for a hip toss, and while it doesn’t work, it gets the fight to the center of the cage. Herbert pumps out his jab and Padilla claims his eyes are poked, but there’s no stop in the fight. Herbert steps in with a right. An inside leg kick lans for the Brit, but Padilla shoves his foe into the cage. Padilla with some short punches and knees in close. Herbert lands a knee as they separate, but he can’t find the range on anything else before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Round 3
Herbert opens with a pair of inside low kicks. A right over the top gets through for Padilla. Herbert threatens with a leaping knee but Padilla sidesteps without issue. Padilla shoots after a Herbert low kick and pushes his adversary into the fence. Padilla lands a short elbow on the break. Herbert lands a 1-2 as he stalks his foe. Herbert has picked up his volume this round, which isn’t saying much. Herbert pressures and is putting some straight punches together. Padilla lands a body kick. Padilla changes levels and secures a body lock. Herbert defends the takedown against the fence, briefly threatening with a guillotine. Herbert lands a knee in the clinch as Padilla drops low for a takedown. Herbert revreses and sperarates. Herbert follows a jab with a knee. The Englishman is doing better mixing in punches and knees, but Padilla, who was busted open at some point during the round, stumbles his foe with an overhand right on the temple during an exchange. Herbert doesn’t seem any worse for wear, though, as he keeps the pressure on. They trade leg kicks as time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)
The Official Result
Chris Padilla def. Jai Herbert via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Chris Padilla, calling Jai Herbert overrated and noting his mediocre takedown defense. He believes Padilla's pressure, durability, and explosiveness will be key. He hopes Padilla wrestles more in this fight. He mentions the line is moving and he's picking Padilla while he's still a slight underdog.
Brady sees Padilla as a live dog who has improved a lot. He notes Herbert is hesitant and low-volume now, and Padilla has finishing upside with grappling and durability. Brady predicts a close decision win for Padilla, possibly with big moments and takedowns.
The host disagrees with the betting public moving towards Padilla. He believes Herbert is a cleaner striker with improved striking defense and durability, allowing him to operate at distance and win on the scorecards.
The Guru leans towards Chris Padilla as a slight underdog, citing his finishing streak and ability to get to dominant positions. He notes that Jai Herbert often has close decisions and may be nearing the end of his career at 36. He believes Padilla's dynamism and finishing potential will be the difference, and that Herbert's tendency to let fights get away will cost him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 1 | 82 of 178 | 46% | 89 of 185 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Rolando Bedoya | 0 | 67 of 199 | 33% | 71 of 206 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 1 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 17 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Rolando Bedoya | 0 | 21 of 58 | 36% | 22 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 2 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 29 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rolando Bedoya | 0 | 30 of 78 | 38% | 30 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 3 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 37 of 84 | 44% | 43 of 90 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Rolando Bedoya | 0 | 16 of 63 | 25% | 19 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 82 of 178 | 46% | 47 of 132 | 27 of 36 | 8 of 10 | 79 of 173 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| Rolando Bedoya | 67 of 199 | 33% | 29 of 134 | 10 of 23 | 28 of 42 | 64 of 192 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 16 of 34 | 47% | 7 of 24 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Rolando Bedoya | 21 of 58 | 36% | 4 of 27 | 3 of 10 | 14 of 21 | 21 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jai Herbert | 29 of 60 | 48% | 16 of 38 | 11 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 28 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rolando Bedoya | 30 of 78 | 38% | 12 of 51 | 7 of 11 | 11 of 16 | 27 of 74 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jai Herbert | 37 of 84 | 44% | 24 of 70 | 8 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 37 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rolando Bedoya | 16 of 63 | 25% | 13 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Herbert (-155), Bedoya (+130)
Round 1
Like the last pairing, these two combatants have their backs against the wall here. Winner of just two of his seven UFC outings, Herbert (12-5-1, 2-4-1 UFC) needs to get his hand raised today, but the same can be said for Chute Boxe’s Bedoya (14-3, 0-2 UFC), who wants the third time to be a charm. Something’s gotta give between these lightweights, and referee Lukasz Bosacki will be the first to know. There is a quick glove touch between the two, and Bedoya takes to the center of the cage pushing out a front kick and a body kick to find his range. Bedoya lands with a low kick as he bounces from stance to stance, keeping Herbert guessing early. Herbert paws out a jab that is at least two feet away, and Bedoya pitches a few kicks his way. Herbert gets one leg kick back, and he counters a leg kick with a jab to the body as the kick bounces into his cup. Herbert adjusts his athletic supporter and does not need a pause, and Bedoya takes a moment before drilling him in the face with an overhand right. Bedoya remains busy with low kicks, and Herbert looks for overhand right counters. One lands perfectly, briefly short-circuiting “The Machine,” who drops to a knee. Bedoya is able to get his bearings before Herbert can finish the job, and he works his way upright but is still not totally clear. Herbert pins a one-two on the jaw, forcing the Peruvian to tie him up against the fencing. Herbert gets off a pair of knees and escapes from the clinch, and he puts out a front kick that slaps off the chest of his opponent. Herbert slips from side to side, a cut suddenly developed under his right eye, and Bedoya walks him down throwing hands. Herbert replies with a big knee that is caught, and Bedoya slugs him backwards. Bedoya leaps in with a right hand that misses, and a leg kick does connect. Bedoya goes for another low kick that is not accurate, and he has a winging right hand ricochet off the shoulder. Herbert just misses on a counter right, and he takes two low kicks from the Chute Boxe Diego Lima fighter. Bedoya jams more kicks on the front leg, and Herbert replies with a combination ending with a stiff body kick. Bedoya does not slow kicking the front leg of the Brit, with it glowing red, but he eats another power right hand before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Round 2
Any bleeding beneath Herbert’s right eye is ceased between rounds, but some serious swelling has developed. Bedoya is quick to target that damage, going after straight left hands and following them with leg kicks. Bedoya gets off a right hook and a left on the eye socket, and he parries a body kick and skirts away. Bedoya loads up on power punches as Herbert tries to keep him at bay with a push kick, resulting in some damage on the Brit’s nose. Bedoya gives chase with a few lunging kicks, and he snaps the head back with a right hand when Bedoya gets careless. Bedoya gets excited and wants to brawl, and Herbert clips him two more times when Bedoya comes at him. Herbert gets caught with a right hand as Bedoya corners him, but he manages to pay him back. As Bedoya rushes at him, they tie up, and he knees Herbert square in the groin. Bosacki calls time and warns Bedoya for the foul, and gives Herbert 30 seconds to recover before Herbert is good to go. Herbert is active at the restart with jabs and front kicks, and Bedoya responds with similar strikes and some to the front leg. Herbert uses a number of jabs to catch Bedoya coming at him with his hands down, and he kicks the ribs and just misses with a high kick. Bedoya strides towards him, belts him with an elbow and escapes. Bedoya kicks at the same time as his opponent, but Herbert doubles up on the body kick. Herbert quadruples his jab and dances away from a looping punch, although he does absorb a low kick. Herbert gets a sneaky left hook in when Bedoya is bearing down on him, and Bedoya tanks it and swings back with reckless abandon. Bedoya assaults the front leg and kicks the body, and they trade heavy punches. Herbert backs him off with a thudding knee, and he ducks the swarming punches when Bedoya approaches him again. Herbert zings a right hand that catches Bedoya flush, and a second stuns Bedoya for a moment. Herbert drills the front leg and rips a left to the ribs, and Bedoya replies with a heavy low kick. They clash together, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bedoya
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Round 3
The fighters pick up right where they left off, trading strikes from kickboxing range. Bedoya is a bit more reckless than before, swinging just a little harder and slower. Herbert is accurate and quick, beating Bedoya to the punch and mixing things up to throw Bedoya to the mat. The Peruvian springs back up without issue and looks for a trip and throw, only for Herbert to thwart it in part due to a fence grab. Herbert counters with a throw, and Bedoya pulls himself back to his feet by grabbing the fence too—offsetting fouls, but a not particularly thrilled Bosacki. They resume striking, with Herbert jabbing his way into twos, and Bedoya gets his chin checked a few times but is able to take them cleanly. Herbert’s boxing remains crisp, and he mixes in body kicks and slides away from counters. Bedoya reaches him with a low kick, and Herbert doubles up on it and backs off with a right hand. Herbert stumbles, but that might be more due to an awkward step on the edge of the cage, and he recovers. Bedoya closes in on him and tries to take advantage of the moment, but Herbert gets out of danger. Bedoya slips several punches but walks into jabs, and Herbert scoots away from him and again takes a funny step. Bedoya clips Herbert with a right hand, and he lands it again after absorbing a jab. Herbert steps in with a knee, and he chops at the front leg. Bedoya walks him down consistently, keeping his guard up to block a pair of punches. Bedoya connects with a low kick, eats a knee and comes back with a right hand. Bedoya attempts to check a kick and eats a few punches for his effort. Herbert gets in a few punches, and Bedoya goes wide with responsive strikes. Bedoya loads up on a right hand that is easily dodged, and he gets blasted with a right hand but wears it shockingly well. Bedoya misses with a lumbering hook and runs into the wall, and when he recovers, he catches Herbert with a left. Bedoya attempts a spinning back fist, and Herbert boxes him up to the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (30-27 Herbert)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Herbert)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (30-27 Herbert)
The Official Result
Jai Herbert def. Rolando Bedoya via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Bedoya because of his high output and pressure, noting Herbert is a low-volume technical striker who often stares at opponents. He expects Bedoya to land over 100 significant strikes and win a decision. He placed a half-unit bet on Bedoya at +145, expecting the line to tighten.
Big Brady is taking another underdog here, citing Jai Herbert's low volume and poor durability. He notes Herbert has become tentative and lacks the chin for brawls, while Bedoya is cutting to lightweight for the first time and has volume and durability advantages. He predicts Bedoya wins by decision.
Cody picks Rolando Bedoya, citing his high volume and pressure. He notes that Bedoya lands over 100 significant strikes per fight, while Herbert has low output and tends to fade under pressure. Cody thinks Bedoya's durability and pace will overwhelm Herbert, who has been knocked out in three of four losses. He also mentions that Bedoya arguably beat Chas Skelly and should have won.
Daniel picks Bedoya, viewing him as a high-volume brawler who can close the distance and overwhelm Herbert. He criticizes Herbert's low output and compares him to a poor man's Leon Edwards. He believes Bedoya's pace and pressure will be too much, especially now that he's at his natural weight class.
Herbert is the technically better fighter. If his durability holds up, he should out-volume and outpace Bedoya to win on the scorecards.
Paul picks Rolando Bedoya, noting that Herbert has low volume and has been knocked out multiple times. He thinks Bedoya's volume and pressure will be too much for Herbert. Paul also mentions that Herbert was not booked for the UK card, which suggests the UFC doesn't value him highly. He believes Bedoya can win a decision or even stop Herbert.
The MMA Guru picks Jai Herbert over Rolando Bedoya, noting Bedoya's lack of power and that he is moving down in weight. He believes Herbert's record is forged within the UFC and that Herbert will hurt Bedoya, possibly getting a TKO. He criticizes Bedoya's body and power, suggesting Herbert could land a front kick or knee to the body.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farès Ziam | 0 | 49 of 134 | 36% | 58 of 150 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:12 |
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 61 of 113 | 53% | 96 of 153 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Farès Ziam | 0 | 14 of 42 | 33% | 15 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 20 of 32 | 62% | 34 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 2 | Farès Ziam | 0 | 15 of 44 | 34% | 22 of 53 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 34 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 3 | Farès Ziam | 0 | 20 of 48 | 41% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 28 of 52 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farès Ziam | 49 of 134 | 36% | 7 of 79 | 23 of 31 | 19 of 24 | 38 of 119 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Jai Herbert | 61 of 113 | 53% | 29 of 74 | 19 of 23 | 13 of 16 | 45 of 93 | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Farès Ziam | 14 of 42 | 33% | 1 of 24 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 12 of 38 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jai Herbert | 20 of 32 | 62% | 8 of 17 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 24 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Farès Ziam | 15 of 44 | 34% | 2 of 28 | 11 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 36 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Jai Herbert | 20 of 38 | 52% | 12 of 28 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 30 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Farès Ziam | 20 of 48 | 41% | 4 of 27 | 6 of 8 | 10 of 13 | 17 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jai Herbert | 21 of 43 | 48% | 9 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 18 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ziam (-155), Herbert (+135)
Round 1
Moving right along on this main card, two lightweights hovering around the .500 threshold in the UFC will come to blows. Looking to lift his record to that even mark, Herbert (12-4-1, 2-3-1 UFC) almost certainly wishes to turn this fight into a brawl. Kill Cliff FC rep Ziam (13-4, 3-2 UFC) should mind his P’s and Q’s in this one, as should referee Jason Herzog. Before the melee commences, the fighters touch gloves. Ziam claims the center of the cage, and he measures jabs only to get jabbed in response. Ziam plants a heavy leg kick down low early, and he sneaks out a body kick while getting countered. Herbert swipes out with a left hook, and he splits the guard with a jab. Ziam reaches his man with a body kick, and he skirts away when Herbert kicks him in the calf. Herbert chambers and fires another leg kick, and Ziam reacts poorly from it. Ziam steels himself and lunges with straight punches, and his straight left finds the target a few times. Herbert comes up short by a matter of inches with two looping hooks, but his leg kicks do hit the mark much to the dismay of the Frenchman. As they both try to swing hard at one another, their chests clap together and this results in a clinch. The corner of Herbert continues to shout “head position” like Tito Ortiz shouting for his fighter on “The Ultimate Fighter” to get up. As they jockey for position against the wall, they break off and end up clinched on the other side of the cage wall. Both men think about a potential level change, and this results in a positional stalemate of failed attempts. Herbert gets cracked with a short elbow as he tries to separate, and he walks Ziam down and puts a jab in his face. The French fighter responds in kind, and they proceed to let go with single strikes one after the other. Herbert lands a body kick, and Ziam clips him with a left hook. A front kick from Ziam punctuates the close round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Round 2
There is a brief fist bump to start off the round, and the two lightweights ply their trade with jabs. Herbert fires off a left hook in a series of punches, driving Ziam back to the fence. Herbert ups his output, laying into Ziam with strikes to the head and body. Herbert mixes things up with a leg kick, and he dodges a counter and plants his fist on Ziam’s forehead. The momentum from Herbert results in a clinch, but they break out of it and trade fists. Ziam lands the heavier of a strike with a right hand, but “The Black Country Banger” relishes this and wings a right hook back. Herbert again pushes into a clinch, and after a lull, Herbert pushes off and elbows Ziam in the face. Ziam pokes out several jabs, and he blocks a head kick as Herbert comes at him. Again, Herbert ties Ziam up, considering a takedown but unable to get it. Herbert knees the body several times, and Ziam decides to do the same. Ziam gains a full head of steam, and he is able to turn the tables on Herbert by taking him down with ease. Herbert hits a sweep, briefly puts Ziam on his back, and the two scramble back to their feet. Herbert returns to pressing his full weight on his opponent, and Ziam manages to eventually get out of the grip. Ziam knocks the advancing Herbert back with two punches, only to get popped by counters from the Brit. They trade punches, and Herbert jabs his way in and follows it with a head kick. When Herbert charges him, Ziam sneaks up an uppercut, and the grueling round ends in the clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Round 3
Coming into the last round, scores could be all over the map. They greet in the center of the cage spamming kicks, trading them one after the other fearlessly. Ziam throws the first punch, and Herbert leans back and kicks at him. Ziam sticks out a jab and takes one back on the chin, and he swipes out with a short hook. Ziam comes up shy of the mark with two big punches, and Herbert sits back and smacks him with a kick on either side of his calf. “Smile Killer” jabs and whips a left hook over the top, and the crowd is growing restless by the relative sparring match after a fairly lackluster event thus far. The fighters proceed to take turns striking at one another, and Ziam connects with a big leg kick that makes Herbert hobble back and shake his leg out. Ziam ends another combination with a thudding kick, and Herbert rushes towards him and ties him up before looking for a body lock takedown. The Frenchman keeps his balance and leans himself against the chain-link fencing, and he manages to turn himself around and stop Herbert from taking his back. Ziam counters with an inside trip, and they both topple to the ground for a second before jumping back up, locked together in a mean-spirited embrace. Ziam secures another trip, and once more Herbert falls over and gets back up. The two split up with 90 seconds to go in the fight, and neither man engages with anything of note. After the lull in activity, they trade leg kicks and jabs, and Ziam wipes his eye as if he was reacting from an eye poke. Herbert does not let him have a moment to take care of it, as he turns his hips into a heavy leg kick. Ziam drops to a knee in a takedown shot, and Herbert easily stands him up and bullies him towards the fence. Ziam spins him around, and he hangs on until this disappointing affair comes to a close after 15 slogging minutes pass. It’s anyone’s guess who will get the nod after this one.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ziam (29-28 Herbert)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam (29-28 Ziam)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ziam (29-28 Herbert)
The Official Result
Fares Ziam def. Jai Herbert via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo thinks Jai Herbert will win by out-pointing in a boring striking match, citing Herbert's power and danger. However, he is concerned about Herbert's poor takedown defense and will not bet on him because of that vulnerability.
Big Brady picks Farès Ziam by decision, but says it's his least favorite fight on the card. He notes Ziam is a point fighter with no power but good defense, while Herbert has power but has become tentative after being knocked out multiple times. He thinks Ziam's youth and improvements give him the edge, but expects a boring fight.
Cody sees the fighters as similar but notes Ziam showed improved wrestling against Figlak. However, he thinks Herbert's reach advantage and home crowd could sway a close decision. He likes Herbert at +140 as a dog or pass.
Daniel picks Farès Ziam, citing his durability advantage over Jai Herbert, who has been dropped multiple times. He notes both are long, low-output strikers but Ziam has better defense and more impact. He has been waiting for a highlight-reel KO from Ziam and thinks this could be the fight. He also mentions Ziam's improved grappling and training in jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges Herbert's power but believes Ziam's durability and defense will be the difference.
The host picks Farès Ziam, citing his youth, improvements, and ability to mix striking with takedowns. He believes Herbert is slowing down and that Ziam will put the hurting on him. He predicts a decision win for Ziam.
Paul picks Ziam, citing his youth (26 vs 34), improvement, and cardio advantage. He thinks Ziam's volume and durability will overcome Herbert's power. He notes Ziam's similar reach negates Herbert's length advantage.
The MMA Guru picks Jai Herbert as an underdog, citing his talent and training at Team Renegades with Leon Edwards. He criticizes Farès Ziam for not impressing and notes Herbert's head kick knockdown of Ilia Topuria. The Guru believes Herbert's finishing potential and momentum will lead to a TKO win on the feet, despite his chinny reputation.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 43 of 90 | 47% | 96 of 168 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 47 of 97 | 48% | 78 of 132 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 11 of 30 | 36% | 32 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 23 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 | |
| 2 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 17 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | |
| 3 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 44 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 25 of 44 | 56% | 38 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 43 of 90 | 47% | 15 of 59 | 17 of 19 | 11 of 12 | 24 of 68 | 12 of 13 | 7 of 9 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 47 of 97 | 48% | 30 of 75 | 11 of 15 | 6 of 7 | 30 of 76 | 15 of 19 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 11 of 30 | 36% | 5 of 23 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 5 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 11 of 24 | 45% | 7 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 16 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Jai Herbert | 15 of 28 | 53% | 2 of 14 | 7 of 7 | 6 of 7 | 12 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 11 of 29 | 37% | 7 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 24 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jai Herbert | 17 of 32 | 53% | 8 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 25 of 44 | 56% | 16 of 33 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 36 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Klein (-190), Herbert (+160)
Round 1
The two men set to hit the cage next combine for just five decision wins across their 31 victories. Referee Rich Mitchell is going to need to be ready to jump in at a moment’s notice once “The Black Country Banger” Herbert (12-4, 2-3 UFC) and “Mr. Highlight” Klein (19-4, 3-2 UFC) start throwing down. The all-action lightweights elect to touch gloves before swinging for the bleachers, and Herbert immediately slings a head kick. Klein blocks it and fires right back, causing him to tumble to the mat. The Slovakian fighter gets back up without issue, and he faces long jabs coming from Herbert when he resets. Herbert quickly reaches him with a head kick, only for the kick to bounce off the guard. Herbert lets loose a kick to the body, and he leaves it out too long to allow Klein to grab it. Klein trips “The Black Country Banger” down to the canvas, and he lands in the guard and looks to get some ground offense going. The Brit stays active, using a butterfly sweep to keep Klein honest until he rolls for a quick armbar. Klein slides out of it and jumps back into the guard, but he finds himself struggling to get low as Herbert’s butterfly looks keep him elevated. Herbert chew up his man with punches from below, and he stings Klein with an upkick and rips open a huge cut on Klein’s left eyebrow. Klein backs off after getting rocked, and he stands back up to stop the unexpected assault. Herbert aims a head kick to that busted eye, and Klein advances to clinch up and trade knees. Herbert wings an elbow on the inside, and a knee from the Brit skims off the cup but is not called. Herbert hurts Klein again with a knee up the middle, and he lets go of the tie-up to admire his work. Herbert waits, and slips a head kick to hope to disrupt the timing, but the guard is there is time. Klein tries to reply in kind, but he misses the target by a wide margin. Klein threads the needle with his fists, breaking through Herbert’s guard, but they are few and far between. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Round 2
A quick touch of gloves is followed by Klein trying to throw a strike, but Herbert is well out of harm’s way. Klein misses with a swinging head kick, and Herbert does the same as they still look for their range. A body kick from Herbert is up too close, so Klein can counter him over the top with a short left. Herbert moves forward to clinch up, where he pats Klein’s thighs with light knees until Klein turns him about. Klein escapes, and he keeps a close range with Herbert to not allow the Brit to get off his rangy kicks. A body kick from Herbert is countered with a left, and Klein pushes up tightly again to trade knees. Klein aims an elbow during the break, and he slides it off the top of the forehead. The two trade leg kicks, and Herbert mixes up with a head kick before skirting away when Klein bears down on him. Klein blocks two successive head kicks and tries to pay him back with one, but Herbert is far busier with low kicks and distance strikes. A right hand from the Brit opens up an additional cut around Klein’s right eye, and Klein pays it no mind as he continues to advance cautiously. Klein crashes the pocket and manages to get off an elbow, leading Herbert to push off and circle away. Klein continues to push forward, and he wobbles Herbert momentarily with a standing elbow. Herbert separates and kicks the side a few times before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Round 3
Klein walks out of his corner a man on a mission, launching an immediate head kick and chasing his man around the cage. Herbert circles to aim a high kick back at him, and Klein keeps his guard up safely. Klein punches his way into a clinch, and he rips the body with a knee. “The Black Country Banger” spins him around and drills a knee square in the cup, and Klein lets out a yelp and crouches down as Mitchell steps in to pause the fight. After 40 seconds of recovery time, the fight is reset in the middle of the cage, and Klein is fired up. Klein charges out, blasting the body with a knee that lifts Herbert off the ground. They tie up, and Herbert gets one back on the dome as they are putting big power into their strikes. Klein blitzes in, leading to a clinch, and knees are spammed. Herbert belts Klein in the groin again, and Klein doubles over in pain as Mitchell stops the action. Due to the second foul in rapid succession, Mitchell deducts a point from Herbert, and they restart after a minute. Herbert swings a head kick at his man when they resume, and when that misses, he advances to hit a picturesque sweep to dump Klein to the mat. Klein sits up close on the ground to protect his mug from strikes, and Herbert asks Mitchell if he can throw elbows from his particular position without it being another foul. Herbert lands a few before Klein rolls to his back, and Herbert welcomes this so that he can continue mounting offense and controlling his opponent. Klein bursts back to his feet, and he turns the tables and tackles Klein to the canvas. Herbert hits his back and utilizes his butterfly hooks to keep Klein from settling on top, but he eats a few elbows. Herbert stands back up and attempts a hip toss, but they both land on their knees and climb back up. Herbert looks to try to take the back standing, and he lowers Klein back to his knees and works him over with left hands. Herbert fights off one last takedown, and the horn sounds to end this close fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 9-9 (29-27 Herbert)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 9-9 (29-27 Herbert)
Shane Clifford scores the round: 9-9 (29-27 Herbert)
The Official Result
Jai Herbert vs. Ludovit Klein is Ruled a Majority Draw (29-27, 28-28, 28-28)
Angelo believes Klein is the more technical striker and can lean on grappling if needed. He notes Klein has a nice kick behind his jab and is never out of position. He thinks Jai Herbert has a size and power advantage but finds ways to lose. He likes Klein to win but thinks -190 is a bit wide given Klein's vulnerability.
Big Brady picks Klein, citing his power in hands and head kicks, and Herbert's poor striking defense (42%) and questionable chin. He notes Klein has more ways to win, including takedowns if needed, as Herbert's takedown defense is 55%. He predicts a second-round knockout, but acknowledges Herbert's size and reach advantage.
Cody picks Klein by knockout, citing his power and athleticism. He notes Klein is a finisher on the regional scene and has improved his wrestling and cardio. He thinks Herbert's durability is suspect and Klein will land a straight shot up the middle. He says Klein likes fighting taller opponents and can find gaps in Herbert's guard.
Connor picks Klein, noting that Herbert is fragile and lacks assertiveness in the clinch. He points out that Klein is durable, hits hard, and is comfortable at the same range Herbert wants to fight. Connor believes Klein's power and durability will overwhelm Herbert, who tends to fall apart when pressured.
Jacob thinks Klein is the play but is not putting money on it because he sees better value elsewhere. He notes Jai Herbert is a very good striker when confident, but his confidence has been shaken since the Ilia fight. He thinks Klein has wrestling as an ace in the hole and should withstand Herbert's striking, but Herbert could land a sniper shot.
Herbert is a good distance striker with height and reach advantages, but has durability issues and has been knocked out before. Klein has a two-fight winning streak but his grappling success came against opponents who gave up positions. If Herbert stays safe at distance and avoids getting flatlined, he should outpoint Klein over 15 minutes. The comparison is made to Jonathan Martinez's recent upset win.
Paul picks Klein, noting he can utilize wrestling and top control to win a decision. He says Klein's takedowns and top game are effective, and Herbert's takedown defense is a question. He thinks Klein by decision is a likely outcome, but also acknowledges Klein's power. He says the prop prices for Klein by KO and by decision are both plus 225.
The MMA Guru picks Ľudovít Klein over Jai Herbert, praising Klein's toughness and explosiveness on the feet. He notes Herbert is underrated but has a suspect chin and ground game, while Klein has better durability and can win in multiple areas including striking and grappling. He believes Herbert cannot pressure Klein over the distance like others have, and Klein's regional submission wins give him an edge.
Zane also picks Klein, emphasizing that Herbert's style is not tuned to beat Klein. He notes that Klein is a specialist at middle-distance striking and has never been knocked out. Zane believes Herbert's lack of control and fragility will be exploited, and Klein's power will be the difference.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 36 of 64 | 56% | 84 of 116 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 5:57 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 41 of 62 | 66% | 55 of 77 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 17 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 2 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 24 of 36 | 66% | 35 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 17 of 29 | 58% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 | |
| 3 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 32 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 13 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 36 of 64 | 56% | 16 of 43 | 17 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 50 | 13 of 13 | 1 of 1 |
| Kyle Nelson | 41 of 62 | 66% | 15 of 34 | 11 of 13 | 15 of 15 | 28 of 47 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 7 of 19 | 36% | 1 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyle Nelson | 19 of 27 | 70% | 8 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 12 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jai Herbert | 24 of 36 | 66% | 11 of 22 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 27 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyle Nelson | 17 of 29 | 58% | 5 of 17 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 11 of 21 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jai Herbert | 5 of 9 | 55% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Kyle Nelson | 5 of 6 | 83% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Herbert (-265), Nelson (+225)
Round 1
Both Herbert and Nelson have lost three of their last four promotional appearances, so jobs could be at stake in this lightweight affair, which will be governed by veteran official Herb Dean. They touch gloves and we’re underway, with Nelson moving up from featherweight. Nelson lands a hard body kick to start out. Herbert extends a long jab. Nelson with a body kick followed by a calf kick. Nelson lands another low kick. Nelson grabs a leg as Herbert lands a knee to the midsection. The Canadian is in on a takedown and he shoves Herbert into the fence. Herbert is defending well so far, but Nelson is persistent in his approach. Nelson lands a knee before Herbert reverses position. Nelson creates space and lands a big elbow with his back to the fence. They continue to battle in the clinch, with Herbert currently controlling position. Another elbow for Nelson, but not as powerful as the first. Nelson with a short elbow before breaking free. Nelson throws a high kick but it’s blocked. A calf kick from the Canadian finds its mark, though. Nelson ends the period with another low kick. 10-9 Nelson.
Round 2
Herbert opens up with a kick to the body as he circles on the outside of the cage. Nelson stalks his man and lands a body kick. Herbert answers with a jab. Nelson dodges a pair of high kicks and then attacks with the calf kick again. The action picks up as both men trade low kicks and Herbert opens up a little bit more. Herbert jab the body and then lands a left hook to the body. They clinch and Nelson drives a knee into the midsection before shoving his foe into the cage. Herbert circles off the fence, but Nelson reverses and goes high with a knee. Nelson defends a trip attempt by Herbert as the clinch battle wages on. Herbert connects with an elbow in close quarters, and he defends a hip toss and continues to control position. Herbert with a nice right hand on the break. Nelson appears to be slowing down somewhat. Herbert pressures and absorbs a low kick. Herbert tags Nelson with a right before clinching with Nelson. After a spirited exchange in close quarters, Herbert sprawls nicely on a Nelson shot, and the lightweights end the round in the clinch. 10-9 Herbert.
Round 3
They trade leg kicks early, but Herbert appeared to be more affected by the blow. Nelson with a body kick and Herbert answers with a combination. Herbert defends a takedown and powers his way into top position, where he sets up in Nelson’s half guard and drops a shoulder strike. Nelson holds Herbert close to neutralize his offense from above. Herbert seems content to remain in half guard rather than looking to advance to mount. A few short right hands land for the Englishman. Nelson recovers full guard. Nelson is able to work his way to a knee as Herbert attempts to circle his way to the Canadian’s back. Nelson is now up with a minute left. He turns off the fence and shoves Herbert into the cage. Nelson works for a takedown but Herbert defends all the way until the horn. A late shot from Nelson at the horn draws a displeased reaction from “The Black Country Banger.” 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Herbert).
The Official Result
Jai Herbert def. Kyle Nelson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Jai Herbert but expresses concern about Kyle Nelson's two-year layoff, noting it's hard to know what version of Nelson will show up. He highlights Herbert's technical striking and movement, and that he looked sharp before being knocked out by Ilia Topuria. He advises leaving Herbert out of parlays due to the uncertainty.
Big Brady picks Jai Herbert to win by first-round knockout. He loves Herbert's striking and power but notes his poor striking defense and chin. He thinks Kyle Nelson has power but a bad gas tank, and if the fight goes past the first round, Herbert takes over. He expects a knockout in the first round.
Cody picks Jai Herbert, citing his length, reach advantage, and excellent jab. He notes Nelson has been inactive for two years, moving up in weight, and has poor cardio and takedown defense. Cody thinks Herbert will dictate the outside and jab Nelson's face off. He predicts a first or second round knockout for Herbert.
Daniel Levi picks Jai Herbert, noting that this is a massive step down in competition for Herbert, who has been fighting tough opponents. He believes Herbert has better technique, length, and shot selection. Levi points out that Kyle Nelson is essentially knockout or bust, having only one KO since 2018, and questions Nelson's toughness relative to other UFC fighters.
Herbert is technically better, has a six-inch reach advantage, and should touch Nelson up. However, Herbert has a glass chin and Nelson has power. I think Herbert finishes him in the second or third round. The fight doesn't go to decision is a good parlay piece.
Paul picks Kyle Nelson at +235, calling it a dogger pass. He notes Nelson throws absolute hammers and Herbert's chin is questionable. Paul thinks the fight is high variance and Herbert has been rocked many times. He likes Nelson inside the distance at +350 or by KO at +600.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Jai Herbert to win by first-round TKO. He believes Herbert is a much better fighter than Kyle Nelson, who has been out since September 2020. Herbert has been active and will start fast. Nelson has power in the first round but fades, and Herbert can weather the storm and finish him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 1 | 22 of 63 | 34% | 50 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jai Herbert | 1 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 31 of 55 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 1 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 47 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 23 of 41 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:38 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jai Herbert | 1 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 22 of 63 | 34% | 20 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Jai Herbert | 20 of 41 | 48% | 17 of 37 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 19 of 47 | 40% | 18 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Jai Herbert | 12 of 27 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 3 of 16 | 18% | 2 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jai Herbert | 8 of 14 | 57% | 6 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Kicking off the main card is a classic stylistic battle when the appropriately titled “Black Country Banger” Herbert (11-3, 1-2 UFC) faces off against Spanish submission threat Topuria (11-0, 3-0 UFC) in the lightweight division. Trying to keep a lid on what is sure to be a fast-paced tilt will be referee Marc Goddard, although he does not need to worry about disrespect as the two touch gloves first. Herbert bounces up and down before snapping out a jab, and he steps in with a knee when Topuria advances towards him. Herbert keeps his opponent at bay with long, rangy strikes, getting the smaller Topuria’s attention quickly. Herbert lets his hands go and follows it with a head kick, dropping Topuria in the opening minute, and the audience bursts into cheers for their local man. “El Matador” springs back to his feet and crashes forward to go after a takedown, pushing Herbert all the way back to the cage but not getting him down. After multiple fence grabs from Herbert, Topuria is finally able to lift him up off the ground and slam him to the mat with emphasis. Topuria lands in side control, where he starts to isolate Herbert’s right arm and set up a crucifix. The scrambling Brit is able to recover his position, and he drags Topuria all the way back to his guard. Topuria madly dashes to try to pass guard, smashing Herbert in the face a few times, and he gets kicked off briefly but dives back on top. Herbert ties Topuria up, defending himself from much offense and keeping Topuria in his guard, but Topuria slowly works his way to open up on punches. Herbert scrambles, and he forces his way back to his feet and blasts Topuria with a back-elbow. Topuria is wobbled, and Herbert drills him with a long combination that knocks Topuria back. Goddard stops the fight for a second to replace Topuria’s mouthpiece, as it had been knocked out from the heavy punches from the Brit. Topuria gathers himself, as Herbert lets him off the hook and allows the Georgian to attack with winging punches. Herbert intercepts his man with a knee as Topuria comes in, and the mouthpiece goes flying again in a cinematic fashion. Topuria’s chin holds up, and the two lightweights furiously slug it out to the bell. What a round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Round 2
The second round begins with Topuria aggressive, stalking Herbert down and trying to take the Brit’s reach advantage away from him. Topuria wings a right hand that just misses as Herbert kicks the body, and Herbert ducks back by an inch to avoid the massive blow. Herbert aims an uppercut that comes up short, and he strafes back and forth while Topuria comes after him.
With bad intentions in his eyes, Topuria stalks Herbert down and wings a few punches at him. Herbert reaches out with a jab, and “El Matador” unleashes a right behind the ear, a thudding left to the body and an earthshattering right hand flush on the chin that sends Herbert collapsing to the ground in a crumpled heap.
As the crowd goes completely silent, Topuria walks away without bothering to deliver a follow-up blow, with Herbert out cold beneath him. Making the most of his post-fight interview moment, Topuria does not call for bonus money – his work should speak for itself – but instead sets his sights on “that blonde b---ch” Paddy Pimblett. Should Pimblett win later tonight, matchmakers can take the day off as that came together without them having to budge.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Jai Herbert R2 1:07 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria to win by stoppage, citing his well-rounded game and ability to win on the feet or via wrestling. He notes that Jai Herbert has been taken down multiple times by opponents like Moicano and Trinaldo, and expects Topuria to do the same. He plans to bet on an Ilia Topuria wins inside the distance prop.
Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria to win by first-round submission. He notes Topuria is moving up a weight class on short notice and faces a massive size disadvantage, but he believes Topuria's grappling is elite and Jai Herbert has shown horrendous takedown defense and a weak chin. Brady expects Topuria to take the fight to the mat and submit Herbert quickly, as Herbert has little ground game and poor durability.
Cody picks Topuria as a lock, citing his superior grappling and Herbert's weak chin. He thinks Topuria can win by submission or KO, and notes that Herbert has been knocked out by lesser fighters. He calls Topuria the top ticket.
Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria, but with reservations. He notes that Topuria has finished all his UFC fights in the first round except against a short-notice opponent, where he gassed. Levi believes Topuria's ground game is a huge advantage, as Herbert has poor wrestling and chin issues. However, he warns against overhyping Topuria, as Herbert has a puncher's chance with his reach and power. Levi expects a finish inside the distance.
Topuria should replicate what Moicano did to Herbert: get the fight to the ground and use superior jiu-jitsu for a finish. Herbert is a good striker but struggles against grapplers with heavy top pressure. 23 of 25 fights for these two haven't gone to decision, and that trend should continue. The fight doesn't go to decision at -350 is a better bet than Topuria straight. I'm picking Topuria via first-round submission.
Paul picks Topuria as a lock, emphasizing Herbert's defensive liabilities and Topuria's all-around game. He notes that Herbert has been knocked out by lesser punchers and that Topuria's grappling is a major threat. He agrees Topuria is the top ticket.
The Guru picks Ilia Topuria but thinks the odds are too wide; he should be around -200. He notes Jai Herbert's weak chin and lack of physical strength, calling him a 'malnourished lightweight.' He believes Topuria's grappling and power will be too much, predicting a first-round TKO. He acknowledges an upset is possible but favors Topuria's skill set.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khama Worthy | 1 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khama Worthy | 1 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 11 of 21 | 52% | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khama Worthy | 24 of 46 | 52% | 21 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 19 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 11 of 21 | 52% | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khama Worthy | 24 of 46 | 52% | 21 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 19 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Hold on to your hats, because a lightweight banger is on deck when “The Deathstar” Worthy (16-8, 2-2 UFC) seeks to become the ultimate power in the universe at the expense of “The Black Country Banger” Herbert (10-3, 0-2 UFC). Fists and feet are sure to fly, and referee Chris Tognoni may need to keep his head on a swivel from the exchanges that follow the glove touch. Worthy is jittery as he starts off the round, with his hands shaking back and forth as he tries to counter Herbert. With both preparing to counter the other, very little happens the first 30 seconds of the match. Worthy steps in with a punch to the body, and he blocks an overhand right that comes at him. The Brit fires off a body kick, and he steps out of the way from a prodding jab. Herbert slings a high kick that is blocked in time, and he chambers a body kick that collides loudly to the midsection. Worthy walks through a punch to try to land a heavy front kick, but he settles for a slapping leg kick instead. Worthy sneaks a right hand around the guard, and thumps a low calf kick to follow. As Herbert tries to pay him back, a low kick of his own gets checked. “The Deathstar” blasts Herbert with a heavy leg kick that makes Herbert do a little spin, but he gathers himself to start slinging leather. Herbert catches Worthy as he starts to unload with a brutal punching combination and a head kick in the middle. A right hand wobbles Worthy, and the continuous strikes of Herbert appear to have found the thermal exhaust port of his opponent, detonating one by one as Worthy’s legs betray him. The onslaught continues, and a left hook puts Worthy face-down down on the mat. As Worthy rolls to his side, barely grasping on to his consciousness, “The Black Country Banger” continues to bang with ferocious punches from on high. As Tognoni notices that Worthy may be out, he intervenes to stop the fight and award Herbert with his first UFC win in three tries.
The Official Result
Jai Herbert def. Khama Worthy R1 2:47 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo calls this a razor-thin pick. He notes that Khama has power and a good counter-striking game, while Jai is technical but gets hit a lot (1.3 strikes landed vs 2.66 absorbed). He thinks the odds are wide due to recency bias from Khama's knockout losses. He's not confident and won't bet the round line, but he likes Khama by a hair.
Big Brady picks Herbert as the younger, more talented fighter with height and reach advantages. He notes both fighters have poor striking defense and chins, but believes Worthy's chin is shot after seven knockout losses. He predicts a first-round knockout by Herbert, though acknowledges Worthy's power makes him live.
Cody picks Jai Herbert by knockout, citing Herbert's reach advantage and Worthy's notorious inability to take a punch. He notes that Worthy has been knocked out in seven of his eight losses, often in the first minute. Cody believes Herbert will find his range and land a straight right to knock Worthy out. He expects the fight to end inside one and a half rounds.
Lock picks Herbert based on technical striking. He notes Herbert is the better boxer and should be able to outpoint Worthy. He expects Herbert to finish later in the fight as Worthy fades. He likes Herbert inside the distance.
Paul leans towards Jai Herbert, noting his reach advantage and better cardio. He expects a high-variance fight where someone gets knocked out, and he believes it will be Worthy. However, Paul acknowledges that Herbert's chin is questionable and that he could get knocked out as well. He sees this as a firefight.
The MMA Guru picks Jai Herbert, citing Khama Worthy's recent KO losses and questionable chin. He notes Herbert's reach advantage, first-round KO power, and better competition faced. He believes Herbert's cardio and striking will be too much for Worthy, predicting a first-round KO.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria to win by stoppage, citing his well-rounded game and ability to win on the feet or via wrestling. He notes that Jai Herbert has been taken down multiple times by opponents like Moicano and Trinaldo, and expects Topuria to do the same. He plans to bet on an Ilia Topuria wins inside the distance prop.
Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria to win by first-round submission. He notes Topuria is moving up a weight class on short notice and faces a massive size disadvantage, but he believes Topuria's grappling is elite and Jai Herbert has shown horrendous takedown defense and a weak chin. Brady expects Topuria to take the fight to the mat and submit Herbert quickly, as Herbert has little ground game and poor durability.
Cody picks Topuria as a lock, citing his superior grappling and Herbert's weak chin. He thinks Topuria can win by submission or KO, and notes that Herbert has been knocked out by lesser fighters. He calls Topuria the top ticket.
Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria, but with reservations. He notes that Topuria has finished all his UFC fights in the first round except against a short-notice opponent, where he gassed. Levi believes Topuria's ground game is a huge advantage, as Herbert has poor wrestling and chin issues. However, he warns against overhyping Topuria, as Herbert has a puncher's chance with his reach and power. Levi expects a finish inside the distance.
Topuria should replicate what Moicano did to Herbert: get the fight to the ground and use superior jiu-jitsu for a finish. Herbert is a good striker but struggles against grapplers with heavy top pressure. 23 of 25 fights for these two haven't gone to decision, and that trend should continue. The fight doesn't go to decision at -350 is a better bet than Topuria straight. I'm picking Topuria via first-round submission.
Paul picks Topuria as a lock, emphasizing Herbert's defensive liabilities and Topuria's all-around game. He notes that Herbert has been knocked out by lesser punchers and that Topuria's grappling is a major threat. He agrees Topuria is the top ticket.
The Guru picks Ilia Topuria but thinks the odds are too wide; he should be around -200. He notes Jai Herbert's weak chin and lack of physical strength, calling him a 'malnourished lightweight.' He believes Topuria's grappling and power will be too much, predicting a first-round TKO. He acknowledges an upset is possible but favors Topuria's skill set.
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