vs
-184 +170
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021 · Catchweight (127.4 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Age 34
Height 5' 7"
Reach 73"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 34
Height 5' 6"
Reach 68"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Ode' Osbourne
2.94 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
3.24 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
0.94 TD Avg
29.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - C.J. Vergara
5.02 SLpM
56.0% Str. Acc.
4.69 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Ode' Osbourne
Moneyline
FanDuel -184
KO/TKO
FanDuel +380
Submission
BetWay +300
Decision
DraftKings +330
C.J. Vergara
Moneyline
Caesars +170
KO/TKO
FanDuel +320
Submission
FanDuel +2600
Decision
FanDuel +500
Ode' Osbourne - Fight History
SCHED vs Cody Durden
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
NC vs Alibi Idiris
NC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ode' Osbourne 0 32 of 90 35% 48 of 107 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:58
Alibi Idiris 0 30 of 75 40% 62 of 117 5 of 15 33% 0 0 6:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ode' Osbourne 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alibi Idiris 0 12 of 30 40% 19 of 37 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:00
2 Ode' Osbourne 0 14 of 33 42% 15 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alibi Idiris 0 7 of 23 30% 19 of 41 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:15
3 Ode' Osbourne 0 10 of 31 32% 25 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:58
Alibi Idiris 0 11 of 22 50% 24 of 39 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ode' Osbourne 32 of 90 35% 21 of 74 11 of 15 0 of 1 27 of 84 5 of 6 0 of 0
Alibi Idiris 30 of 75 40% 22 of 58 1 of 5 7 of 12 22 of 64 2 of 4 6 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ode' Osbourne 8 of 26 30% 6 of 23 2 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alibi Idiris 12 of 30 40% 8 of 23 0 of 0 4 of 7 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Ode' Osbourne 14 of 33 42% 7 of 23 7 of 10 0 of 0 11 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0
Alibi Idiris 7 of 23 30% 5 of 17 0 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 18 1 of 2 3 of 3
3 Ode' Osbourne 10 of 31 32% 8 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 1 8 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Alibi Idiris 11 of 22 50% 9 of 18 1 of 2 1 of 2 7 of 17 1 of 2 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Angelo picks Ode' Osbourne, despite his poor takedown defense, because Alibi Idiris prefers to strike rather than wrestle. He believes Osbourne's superior striking and power will dominate if Idiris doesn't exploit the takedown weakness. He expresses frustration with Osbourne's lack of improvement in takedown defense.

"I'm going to pick Ode."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Alibi Idiris

Big Brady picks Alibi Idiris to defeat Ode' Osbourne, citing Osbourne's tendency to fade after a round and a half. He notes Osbourne is dangerous early but has poor cardio and suspect submission defense. He likes Idris's cardio, ability to mix in takedowns, and believes he can hurt Osbourne on the feet. He predicts a second-round knockout for Idris, though he acknowledges a submission is possible.

Alibi Idiris by second-round knockout
"I like Idris here. I think he's going to put a pace on Ode. ... give me Adeyris to win this fight. I'll say second round knockout for Aliebi Adeyris."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Cody thinks Osbourne's experience and reach advantage will be key. He notes Idiris looked poor against Joseph Morales and questions his heart. He expects Osbourne to edge a decision or get a late finish.

"OD Osborne wins more often than not to cover the plus money price tag. So, I'm going to take it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alibi Idiris

Connor takes a flyer on Idiris, noting that the style matchup is different from the Morales fight—Idiris will get to strike with Osbourne, which suits him better. He points out Idiris has actual pocket fighting feel and Osbourne is tense at range. However, he acknowledges Idiris may still not be ready.

"I might even take i'll take a flyer on a dearest. I think... at the very least I think a dearest should be regarded as a live dog against a fellow striker"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alibi Idiris

James picks Alibi Idiris to win by finish, likely submission, citing Osbourne's struggles with grappling. He notes that Idiris trains with Asu Almabayev, who dominated Osbourne with takedowns and submissions. James believes Idiris will mix in grappling and eventually submit or ground-and-pound Osbourne.

"I'm going to pick Idris in this fight. I'm going to pick him to win via finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alibi Idiris

Idiris is the better grappler and wrestler, and he should have a cardio advantage. Osbourne has power but fades after the first round and struggles with grappling. Idiris can survive the first round and then dominate with takedowns and control in the later rounds. The line has moved due to Osbourne's recent performance, but Idiris should win a decision.

"So once again, I'm going to go Idris and Idris by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Paul agrees, citing Osbourne's five-inch reach advantage and experience against tougher competition. He thinks Idiris is unproven and that Osbourne's speed and length will cause problems. He expects Osbourne to win.

"Just so much more experience that if you put a slight even slight plus money next to OD's name, I'm going to have to click it as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alibi Idiris

The MMA Guru picks Alibi Idiris, believing his grappling will be the difference. He notes that Idiris is well-rounded with good kicks, boxing, and grappling, and that Osbourne can be held down by grapplers. He references Idiris' fight with Vince Morales and thinks he can keep Osbourne on the ground.

"I'm going to take Al Iaquinta. ... I think he's going to beat Ode Osbourne and I do think his grappling is going to be the difference."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Zane picks Osbourne, believing Idiris is not ready for a veteran like Osbourne. He notes that Idiris gassed quickly against Morales and was overwhelmed by being the nail. Zane thinks Osbourne can make Idiris the nail for a round and a half, and Idiris won't handle it.

"I still think ode osborn can make him the nail for a round and a half at which point I just don't think that idiris is ready for that"
LOSS vs Steve Erceg
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Erceg 0 20 of 53 37% 39 of 82 3 of 10 30% 1 0 4:47
Ode' Osbourne 0 35 of 74 47% 47 of 89 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Erceg 0 3 of 11 27% 4 of 14 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:06
Ode' Osbourne 0 17 of 32 53% 26 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:46
2 Steve Erceg 0 11 of 25 44% 18 of 33 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:58
Ode' Osbourne 0 12 of 25 48% 15 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
3 Steve Erceg 0 6 of 17 35% 17 of 35 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:43
Ode' Osbourne 0 6 of 17 35% 6 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Erceg 20 of 53 37% 10 of 42 10 of 11 0 of 0 12 of 43 6 of 8 2 of 2
Ode' Osbourne 35 of 74 47% 20 of 53 4 of 7 11 of 14 29 of 68 1 of 1 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Erceg 3 of 11 27% 2 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ode' Osbourne 17 of 32 53% 10 of 21 0 of 2 7 of 9 12 of 27 0 of 0 5 of 5
2 Steve Erceg 11 of 25 44% 4 of 18 7 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 18 5 of 7 0 of 0
Ode' Osbourne 12 of 25 48% 7 of 19 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Steve Erceg 6 of 17 35% 4 of 14 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Ode' Osbourne 6 of 17 35% 3 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Angelo picks Steve Erceg, emphasizing that Erceg is an accomplished wrestler who should use takedowns against Ode' Osbourne, who has poor takedown defense. He criticizes Erceg for not wrestling in recent fights. If Erceg wrestles, he should win; if he strikes, he could lose. Angelo hopes Erceg has learned from his mistakes.

"Steve Urs is going to be the pick. But if this idiot doesn't wrestle, Jesus Christ."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Big Brady is confident in Steve Erceg, noting his losses came only to champions or top contenders. He believes Erceg is better everywhere, especially in grappling, and that Osbourne has poor takedown defense, cardio, and durability. Brady predicts Erceg will submit Osbourne in the second round.

second round submission
"I like Steve quite a bit. Give me Steve Urs to win this fight and win it by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Connor picks Erceg because he is a more structured, consistent fighter than Osbourne, who is fast but dysfunctional and gasses easily. He notes that Erceg's defense is a concern but that he manages distance well when on the front foot, and that Osbourne's tendency to jump into the pocket will lead to takedowns and grappling where Erceg has the advantage. Connor acknowledges the southpaw question but believes Erceg will handle it.

Odds mentioned: Erceg opened -350, currently -600; Osbourne opened +285, currently +425.
"I just don't think it's going to matter when Ode Osbourne is jumping into the pocket at him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

The host believes Erceg is the better fighter with superior Muay Thai and a BJJ black belt. He acknowledges Osbourne's speed and power shown in his last fight, which is a concern as Erceg has been dropped before. However, he thinks Erceg will dial it in to avoid a four-fight losing streak and win on the scorecards.

"I believe that Ersig is the better fighter here. I think his Muay Thai is superior to Osbourne's and I think his BJJ black belt can definitely prove him well should he uh decide to take this fight to the …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Steve Erceg

The MMA Guru picks Steve Erceg, calling him a more well-rounded mixed martial artist than Ronaldo Rodriguez, who beat Osbourne. He believes Erceg has better chin, submission defense, and IQ. He predicts a 30-27 decision or a third-round finish, dismissing Osbourne's chances unless he catches Erceg early.

"Steve Ursk should win this fight. ... I'm gonna go with Steve Ursk getting this one done. 30-27 decision, maybe a third round finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Zane picks Erceg, noting that Osbourne is a dark horse who can deliver a top flyweight result but is inherently dysfunctional. He highlights Osbourne's poor takedown defense (65%) and tendency to gas, while Erceg is tough, has good grappling, and doesn't make many mistakes going forward. Zane is concerned about Erceg's lack of experience against southpaws but thinks Osbourne's style will force wrestling, which favors Erceg.

Odds mentioned: Erceg opened -350, currently -600; Osbourne opened +285, currently +425.
"I think Osborne is just going to force that aspect of the game. And then once that happens, it's going to be Erceg's fight."
WIN vs Luis Gurule
TKO (punches) R2 1:54 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy · Apr 05, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ode' Osbourne 1 18 of 43 41% 22 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Luis Gurule 0 12 of 34 35% 26 of 49 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ode' Osbourne 0 5 of 19 26% 5 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luis Gurule 0 7 of 19 36% 21 of 33 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:07
2 Ode' Osbourne 1 13 of 24 54% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Luis Gurule 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ode' Osbourne 18 of 43 41% 11 of 33 6 of 9 1 of 1 14 of 37 0 of 1 4 of 5
Luis Gurule 12 of 34 35% 3 of 13 0 of 7 9 of 14 11 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ode' Osbourne 5 of 19 26% 1 of 13 3 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0
Luis Gurule 7 of 19 36% 1 of 7 0 of 3 6 of 9 7 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Ode' Osbourne 13 of 24 54% 10 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 19 0 of 0 4 of 5
Luis Gurule 5 of 15 33% 2 of 6 0 of 4 3 of 5 4 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Luis Gurule vs. Ode Osbourne
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gurule (-218), Osbourne (+180)

Round 1
His back likely against the wall in this flyweight pairing, Osbourne (12-8, 1 NC; 4-6 UFC) will try to put his three-fight skid in the past. He welcomes Factory X product Gurule (10-0, 0-0 UFC) to the promotion, with the latter working his way up the Fury FC circuit to reach the Contender Series last year. The 125ers will have referee Jason Herzog watching over the action to make sure nothing goes awry, and they elect to touch gloves first. Gurule leads off with a kid to the side, and Osbourne pays him back immediately with one. Gurule kicks low, and he darts away to the side and offers another. Osbourne kicks him in the side twice, and Gurule answers with a left hand and a high kick—both are blocked, but the sheer momentum budges him a bit. Osbourne walks Gurule down and punches him square in the face, and Gurule has to rebound off the fence to blink it out. “The Jamaican Sensation” goes after his foe with his rangy strikes, and he catches a body kick to come up with his other leg and boot Gurule in the face. They trade kicks on the outside, and Gurule ducks a punch and flips Osbourne all the way over to slam him down on his back. Gurule lands directly in side control and uses his shoulder to press down on Osbourne’s face and keep him flat on the canvas. Gurule looks for full mount, and he is bounced out of it while slashing down with an elbow. Osbourne pulls him back to half guard, and Gurule accepts this so he can elbow the Wisconsin native further. Gurule drops down some ground-and-pound, spurring Osbourne into desperately returning to his feet with 20 seconds left. Gurule drops for a single, and he lets it go to wing a left hand over the top. Gurule has a head kick bounce off the guard, and they clash with kicks at the same time to conclude the frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gurule
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gurule
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gurule

Round 2
A fist bump leads into the action, where Gurule lets loose three kicks in rapid succession. Gurule ducks a strike to come up with a left hand, and he dances away from a one-two but is still in range for a front kick. Osbourne catches his man at the end of a right, and he times a ducking Gurule with an uppercut. The strike stops Gurule from completing the takedown, as Osbourne breaks free and jabs out a few times. Both men sting one another with long, straight punches, and Osbourne blocks a kick to drive a one-two down the pipe. When Gurule offers out a kick, Osbourne snipes him from his distance. This happens a second time, a naked kick from the unbeaten fighter is met with a concussive left hand that sends him to the floor in a heap.
Osbourne is surprised at the success of his blow, and he has to commit to finishing the fight rather than walking off. He leaps on the side of his opponent and hammers him with a number of unanswered right hands. As the punches continue to mount, Herzog says enough is enough and calls a halt to the match.
Just like that, the upset has been completed, while Gurule has been firmly ejected from the ranks of the unbeaten. Meanwhile, Osbourne can rest a little easier with that win on his belt, having put Gurule down with what he called a “Dewey Cooper special.”

The Official Result
Ode Osbourne def. Luis Gurule R2 1:54 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Luis Gurule

Angelo acknowledges Ode' Osbourne is better than his recent record and nearly won his last fight, but he thinks Osbourne may be dejected after three losses and that his grappling gaps remain. He picks Luis Gurule due to his pressure, power, and grappling, but warns that undefeated UFC debuts often lose and advises against betting. He calls it a trap fight where Osbourne could win out of nowhere.

"I'm going to go with Luis here because despite the experience Gap oday hasn't closed his grappling gaps and I think Luis can get the grappling going."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Luis Gurule

Big Brady picks Luis Gurule despite not being impressed with him. He notes Ode' Osbourne has durability and cardio issues, often fading after the first round. He expects Gurule's solid cardio and durability to take over as the fight progresses, leading to a decision win.

"I'm going to take Luis GLE to win this fight winning this fight by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Luis Gurule

Gurule is making his UFC debut with a 10-0 record and is expected to put on a pace and pressure that Osbourne cannot keep up with, leading to a third-round stoppage.

third round stoppage
"I really like Gru in the spot making his UFC debut with a 10 and0 record and I expect him to go out there and put on a pace and pressure that Osborne is unable to keep up with leading …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Luis Gurule

The Guru picks Luis Gurule, noting his undefeated record and grindy style. He criticizes Ode' Osbourne for losing to Ronaldo Rodriguez and having multiple submission losses. He expects a close decision but thinks the prospect will get the nod over Osbourne, who he considers not good enough.

"I'm going to go with Lewis Geru grling his way to a win with a grindy style on the inside. I'm going to pick Lewis Garul. Close decision."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ronaldo Rodríguez 0 35 of 69 50% 68 of 117 1 of 2 50% 0 1 9:14
Ode' Osbourne 1 37 of 68 54% 55 of 93 1 of 3 33% 2 1 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ronaldo Rodríguez 0 6 of 14 42% 25 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 1 4:14
Ode' Osbourne 1 18 of 32 56% 30 of 45 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:08
2 Ronaldo Rodríguez 0 19 of 24 79% 29 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:10
Ode' Osbourne 0 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:22
3 Ronaldo Rodríguez 0 10 of 31 32% 14 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:50
Ode' Osbourne 0 13 of 26 50% 19 of 38 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ronaldo Rodríguez 35 of 69 50% 29 of 61 1 of 2 5 of 6 10 of 31 0 of 0 25 of 38
Ode' Osbourne 37 of 68 54% 28 of 59 4 of 4 5 of 5 22 of 46 0 of 0 15 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ronaldo Rodríguez 6 of 14 42% 4 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 8
Ode' Osbourne 18 of 32 56% 15 of 29 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 14 0 of 0 12 of 18
2 Ronaldo Rodríguez 19 of 24 79% 18 of 23 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 18 of 22
Ode' Osbourne 6 of 10 60% 5 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 4
3 Ronaldo Rodríguez 10 of 31 32% 7 of 27 0 of 1 3 of 3 8 of 23 0 of 0 2 of 8
Ode' Osbourne 13 of 26 50% 8 of 21 2 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ronaldo Rodríguez

Angelo picks Ronaldo Rodríguez but advises against betting. He notes Ronaldo has multiple paths to victory (striking, ground) but his takedowns are not great, while Osbourne is a dangerous striker who has only lost due to wrestling, not striking. Angelo warns against the narrative that Osbourne is a free bet, as he is a good striker. He picks Ronaldo but stays away from betting.

Advises staying away from bets; warns against assuming Ronaldo is a free bet.
"I am going to pick Ronaldo here because of he's you know the multiple pass to Victory... but I'm likely staying away from bets here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ronaldo Rodríguez

Big Brady initially had concerns about Rodríguez after his first round against Bonder, but he favors Rodríguez's durability and heart over Osbourne's questionable durability. He predicts Rodríguez will lose the first round but break Osbourne in the second via submission.

second round submission
"I'm going to go with Rodriguez here I'll say he loses the first round and then kind of breaks oday in the second so give me Rodriguez to win this fight by second round submission"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ronaldo Rodríguez

Daniel Vreeland also picks Ronaldo Rodríguez, citing Osbourne's wrestling background being more wrestling than jiu-jitsu, and that Rodríguez is a sharp grappler who can reverse positions. He notes Osbourne has lost a step and is too slow and hitable. He also mentions Rodríguez's youth and speed at 125 pounds.

"I personally think OD is just probably going to be too slow he's probably going to be too hitable and if he does try to get that wrestling going I don't think it works for him here either so give …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ronaldo Rodríguez

Daniel picks Ronaldo Rodríguez, calling Ode' Osbourne a 'busted prospect' who hasn't improved and struggles with weight cuts. He notes Rodríguez's durability, faster hands, and scrambling ability, and believes Rodríguez will win despite being green. He expects to fade Rodríguez later but not this fight.

"I think that lazy boy can scramble back up and I think despite how green Lazy Boy is I think he's gonna win this fight"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ronaldo Rodríguez

Jeff Fox picks Ronaldo Rodríguez because he is ascending and much younger, while Ode' Osbourne is on the way down. He notes Osbourne's wrestling background hasn't played out well recently and that Rodríguez is a sharp grappler who can handle Osbourne's takedowns. He also mentions Rodríguez's speed and athleticism at flyweight.

"I like Rob Ruez he is ascending for sure against the guy who's seems to like I said be on the way down so give me the much younger guy at a uh lightweight class pretty much any day"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)

The transcript does not discuss this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ronaldo Rodríguez

Rodriguez is a very solid fighter who will cause Osborne a lot of trouble. Osborne may have early success with takedowns and control time, but Rodriguez will provide resistance and pressure Osborne on the feet, eventually finding a finish in the second round, likely by submission.

finish in the second round, likely by submission
"I think Rodriguez will continue to provide resistance and then pressure Osborne on the feet eventually finding that finish in the second round likely by submission"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Ronaldo Rodríguez

The MMA Guru picks Ronaldo Rodríguez. He notes Osbourne has been beaten too many times and has been submitted in his last two fights. Rodríguez is a consistent finisher with submissions, and Osbourne has been put away by submission recently. He also mentions Rodríguez's win over Dennis Bondar and that Osbourne lost to Charles Johnson (though he thought Johnson won).

"I'm gonna go Ronaldo Rodriguez OD Osborne's just been beaten too many times for my Lykan um and Ronaldo Rodriguez is a consistent finisher"
LOSS vs Jafel Filho
Submission R1 4:27 · UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Mar 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jafel Filho 0 21 of 35 60% 43 of 66 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:21
Ode' Osbourne 0 0 of 5 0% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jafel Filho 0 21 of 35 60% 43 of 66 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:21
Ode' Osbourne 0 0 of 5 0% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jafel Filho 21 of 35 60% 18 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 28
Ode' Osbourne 0 of 5 0% 0 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jafel Filho 21 of 35 60% 18 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 28
Ode' Osbourne 0 of 5 0% 0 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Mar 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Angelo is surprised Filho is a legitimate favorite. He acknowledges Filho's grappling advantage and size on the ground, and that Osbourne was taken down easily in his last fight. However, he has too much respect for Osbourne's striking and scramble skills to bet on this fight. He decides to leave it alone, making no pick.

"ultimately jofel probably wins this fight but I have way too much respect for oday his striking game his scramble skills to bet on this fight I'm going to leave this alone"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jafel Filho

Big Brady picks Jafel Filho to win by second-round submission. He believes Filho's toughness and ground game will be too much for Osbourne, who has poor cardio and has been submitted before. He expects Filho to survive an early onslaught and then take over.

by second round submission
"I'm going to take Philo to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jafel Filho

Cody picks Jafel Filho, praising his grappling and finishing ability. He notes Osbourne is prone to mistakes and has submission issues. Filho can take a punch and will relentlessly pursue takedowns and submissions. He expects Filho to catch a submission once the fight hits the ground.

by submission
"Filho kid looks pretty good I think he continues to make improvements... he's probably gonna catch a submission at some point."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jafel Filho

The host acknowledges Osbourne's early danger with speed and power but expects Filho to deal with that, wear on Osbourne against the cage, and drag him to the ground for a submission in the second or third round. He notes Osbourne tends to slow down and give up bad positions, similar to his fight against Alateng.

submission
"give me fio by sub"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jafel Filho

Paul also picks Filho, highlighting Osbourne's durability and submission issues. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop at -185, noting Filho comes hot and Osbourne may not withstand the onslaught. He mentions Filho has third-round finishes, showing he can finish late.

under 2.5 rounds (-185)
"I like him as well... the under two and a half rounds is minus 185 in most places don't I don't mind that."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jafel Filho

The Guru picks Jafel Filho, calling it a no-brainer. He highlights Filho's submission win over Daniel Barez while concussed, and his near-submission of Muhammad Mokaev. He dismisses Osbourne's wins as against low-level opponents like Jerome Rivera and Zhalgas Zhumagulov, and notes Osbourne is 32 and not a young prospect. He expects Filho to find a submission in round one or two.

submission in round one or two
"I'm going jeffel philho um I think this is a no-brainer... I reckon he'll be able to find his submission at some point in round one or two."
LOSS vs Asu Almabayev
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:11 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Asu Almabayev 0 4 of 18 22% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Ode' Osbourne 0 26 of 40 65% 52 of 78 2 of 5 40% 2 0 5:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Asu Almabayev 0 3 of 8 37% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Ode' Osbourne 0 21 of 31 67% 35 of 52 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:23
2 Asu Almabayev 0 1 of 10 10% 2 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ode' Osbourne 0 5 of 9 55% 17 of 26 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Asu Almabayev 4 of 18 22% 4 of 16 0 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
Ode' Osbourne 26 of 40 65% 17 of 31 5 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 14 0 of 0 17 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Asu Almabayev 3 of 8 37% 3 of 6 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Ode' Osbourne 21 of 31 67% 14 of 24 4 of 4 3 of 3 4 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 25
2 Asu Almabayev 1 of 10 10% 1 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ode' Osbourne 5 of 9 55% 3 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Angelo picks Asu Almabayev despite it being his UFC debut, citing his flashy striking and dominant wrestling. He notes that Almabayev lifts opponents off the mat and controls them, which will exhaust Osbourne. He acknowledges Osbourne has power and can wrestle, but thinks he will be outmatched. Angelo has a half-unit bet on Almabayev at -155.

0.5 units at -155
"I have a half a unit on him at minus 155"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Big Brady likes Almabayev's wrestling and control, noting he is position-over-submission and doesn't make mistakes. He thinks Almabayev will push a wrestling-heavy pace and has a cardio advantage. He acknowledges Osbourne is dangerous off his back and has power, but expects Almabayev to win by decision, staying safe on top.

Almabayev by decision
"I'm going to take amab to win this fight I'm going to take him to Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Cody picks Almabayev by submission at +300, citing his strong takedown entries and transitions to the back. He notes Osbourne's poor takedown defense and history of being submitted. He believes Almabayev will wrestle heavily and eventually find a submission.

Almabayev by submission +300
"Alma bio by submission best price right now is plus 300... I'm hoping to get a slightly better price"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne, expressing skepticism about Almabayev's level of competition. He notes that Almabayev struggled against aging UFC vets and has a low-output style. Levi believes Osbourne is more active and dangerous on the feet, with good length and submissions off his back. He is concerned about Osbourne's durability and tendency to play off his back, but thinks Osbourne's offensive skills can overcome Almabayev's wrestling.

No specific prop bet. Notes that sharp action is on Almabayev, but Levi disagrees.
"I'm gonna go ode Osborne here for the upset."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

James thinks the line is too wide favoring Almabayev. He notes Almabayev is a grappler but may not consolidate position for 15 minutes, while Osbourne is a good athlete with a decent sprawl. He also mentions the UFC debut trend often leads to underperformance. He picks Osbourne outright but says he wouldn't go crazy betting him.

"I do think this line is a bit wide... I'm going to pick Ode' Osbourne outright."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Almabayev is a solid Kazakhstani wrestler with a 17-2 record, showing good takedowns and reversals. Osbourne has cardio issues after the first round and is expected to drown under pressure. Unless Osbourne lands a Hail Mary knockout or submission early, Almabayev will finish him in the second or third round.

finish in round 2 or 3
"I think he's gonna falter break and eventually get finished by all mabiv and the second or third round of this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Paul agrees with Almabayev, citing Osbourne's struggles against grapplers and his poor takedown defense. He notes Almabayev's wrestling and cardio, and expects him to grind out a decision or get a submission. He is confident in the pick despite Almabayev's debut.

"I'm also going to take him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

The host picks Ode' Osbourne as an underdog, citing his UFC experience against legit competition versus Almabayev's padded resume. He notes Osbourne's southpaw stance, reach advantage, and improved grappling, but acknowledges the risk if Almabayev gets takedowns. He sees value at +148 and believes Osbourne can keep it standing and use his athleticism.

value at +148, line movement from +123 to +148
"I'm gonna side with the dog here okay I'm not gonna say it with an overwhelming amount of confidence but uh you know he's the underdog and I don't think that that's necessarily warranted especially when you're catching lines and …"
Decision (split) (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ode' Osbourne 0 48 of 154 31% 50 of 157 3 of 10 30% 0 0 2:53
Charles Johnson 0 60 of 127 47% 74 of 147 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ode' Osbourne 0 23 of 62 37% 24 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Charles Johnson 0 21 of 38 55% 24 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:32
2 Ode' Osbourne 0 11 of 48 22% 12 of 50 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:06
Charles Johnson 0 16 of 39 41% 20 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:33
3 Ode' Osbourne 0 14 of 44 31% 14 of 44 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:47
Charles Johnson 0 23 of 50 46% 30 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ode' Osbourne 48 of 154 31% 17 of 110 10 of 15 21 of 29 45 of 150 3 of 4 0 of 0
Charles Johnson 60 of 127 47% 28 of 78 10 of 24 22 of 25 42 of 101 17 of 25 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ode' Osbourne 23 of 62 37% 5 of 37 3 of 4 15 of 21 23 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Charles Johnson 21 of 38 55% 6 of 22 5 of 6 10 of 10 13 of 28 7 of 9 1 of 1
2 Ode' Osbourne 11 of 48 22% 4 of 38 2 of 3 5 of 7 11 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Charles Johnson 16 of 39 41% 12 of 29 0 of 6 4 of 4 14 of 35 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Ode' Osbourne 14 of 44 31% 8 of 35 5 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 40 3 of 4 0 of 0
Charles Johnson 23 of 50 46% 10 of 27 5 of 12 8 of 11 15 of 38 8 of 12 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Johnson. He highlights that Johnson has become a more aggressive fighter since his loss to Muhammad Mokaev, and that Osbourne is a tricky but fragile fighter who often loses by getting knocked out. He notes that Johnson is a big flyweight with good range and durability, and that Osbourne's style of gambling with strikes makes him vulnerable.

"I hope this is another impressive one. And then we get to see Charles Johnson getting tested for contention very soon."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Zane picks Johnson, noting that Johnson has added an aggressive mindset to his already solid technical skills. He believes Johnson will knock Osbourne out, as Osbourne is not very durable and tends to get cracked when his gambles don't pay off. He also notes that Johnson is a big flyweight who is tough to hit clean and has never been knocked out.

"If he can be the same kind of fighter against Oda Osborne, he's gonna knock Oda Osborne out."
C.J. Vergara - Fight History
LOSS vs Édgar Cháirez
Submission R1 2:30 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Édgar Cháirez 0 8 of 27 29% 8 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
C.J. Vergara 0 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Édgar Cháirez 0 8 of 27 29% 8 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
C.J. Vergara 0 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Édgar Cháirez 8 of 27 29% 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 2 7 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 1
C.J. Vergara 6 of 13 46% 1 of 2 0 of 3 5 of 8 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Édgar Cháirez 8 of 27 29% 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 2 7 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 1
C.J. Vergara 6 of 13 46% 1 of 2 0 of 3 5 of 8 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Edgar Chairez vs. C.J. Vergara
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chairez (-278), Vergara (+225)

Round 1
It is unfortunate that in the year 2025, the UFC is still depositing a match between two fighters with losing records in the promotion this high on its billing. It originally was a bit lower, but when Pyfer vs. Gastelum fell off, this flyweight encounter shifted up to this slot. If there is a silver lining, it is that one of these two will hold the coveted .500 mark in the Octagon at night’s end. Whether that is Chairez (11-6, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) or Vergara (12-6-1, 3-4 UFC), referee Marc Goddard will be the first to know. A respectful glove touch starts things off, and Vergara comes out firing with a one-two that is off the mark. Chairez gets behind his jab, take full advantage of his long reach, and they trade low kicks. Chairez just misses with an uppercut, but his jab is already reddening the face of Vergara. Vergara comes up short on his own offense, and Chairez is able to pick at him from his preferred distance. Jabs continue popping Vergara in the face until calf kicks fly his direction, reddening and welting it in a hurry. Chairez lines up a jab and loops a left hook behind it, flooring Vergara for a moment. Vergara gets back up and tries to escape, but Chairez is on him and backs him to the wall with swinging fists. Vergara drops to his knees, and rather than punch his man out,
the Mexican leaps on Vergara’s back and wraps up a rear-naked choke. The submission is almost instantly tight, but it does not slide underneath the American’s chin and is settled firmly on his jaw. Chairez, destined on keeping his 100% finish rate intact, crushes the face crank with all his might. The sheer horsepower from the squeeze is enough for Vergara to surrender
, and Goddard recognizes the tap and gets between them. The victor, completely overcome with emotion, goes to his corner and then drops to his knees in tears, just now processing what he accomplished in front of thousands of screaming fans. Chairez has the building in the palm of his hands, yet he cannot stop weeping.

The Official Result
Edgar Chairez def. C.J. Vergara R1 2:30 via Submission (Face Crank)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

Connor picks Cháirez despite acknowledging his flaws, such as dropping for guillotines and compromising his range. He believes Cháirez is the more likely damage dealer and that Vergara's athletic limitations will be a wall. However, he is not particularly confident due to Cháirez's inconsistency.

"I'll take Chaires as well. I'm not particularly confident about it, he's a hard fighter to trust."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Édgar Cháirez

Zane picks Cháirez, noting that Vergara's boxing and wrestling game could be effective but that Cháirez's long straight punches and willingness to work in close make him dangerous. He thinks Vergara may get caught stepping back. Zane is not fully confident due to Cháirez's tendency to make bad decisions.

"It should be so obvious to just take his ass down though right... but I don't know, even if he does who's to say he doesn't just take one straight step backwards and get decked by a long right hand?"
LOSS vs Ramazan Temirov
TKO (punches) R1 2:50 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ramazan Temirov 0 4 of 16 25% 4 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
C.J. Vergara 3 23 of 55 41% 23 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ramazan Temirov 0 4 of 16 25% 4 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
C.J. Vergara 3 23 of 55 41% 23 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ramazan Temirov 4 of 16 25% 1 of 12 1 of 1 2 of 3 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 23 of 55 41% 18 of 46 4 of 8 1 of 1 20 of 50 0 of 0 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ramazan Temirov 4 of 16 25% 1 of 12 1 of 1 2 of 3 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 23 of 55 41% 18 of 46 4 of 8 1 of 1 20 of 50 0 of 0 3 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Angelo picks Ramazan Temirov, noting his lightning-fast striking and power. He acknowledges that UFC debuts are tricky, but Temirov seems different with confidence and experience pushing through adversity. Angelo believes Temirov's speed and power will be too much for Vergara, especially if he connects like Daniel Lacerda did. He plans to wait for prop bets before wagering.

Waiting for prop bets
"tamarov seems different... I think he's going to get the win."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Big Brady picks Ramazan Temirov to win by first-round knockout. He notes Temirov is a knockout artist with power, but Vergara is durable and has never been knocked out. However, Vergara was almost knocked out by Daniel da Silva, so Brady thinks Temirov can hurt him. He worries about Temirov's cardio if the fight goes long, but expects early big shots to get the finish. He suggests this could be a good live bet spot if Temirov doesn't finish in the first.

Temirov by first-round knockout; live bet if not finished in round 1
"I'll go tamarov to win this fight I'll say first round knockout but this might be a good like live bet spot"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Vergara is a very tough test but Temirov's athleticism and ability to land shocking shots give him the edge. He points out that Vergara is slow and not dynamic, and Temirov's scrambling ability makes him hard to hold down. Connor thinks the odds are too wide in Temirov's favor.

Odds too wide; Temirov should be around -150 to -200, Vergara around +150 to +100.
"I got to agree on and if it's a very if it's a more typical kind of performance or even on the the more lackadaisical side then Vergara is totally capable of kind of shutting him out"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Daniel is very high on Temirov's aggressive, spinning attack style and killer instinct, but he worries about a potential debut stun. He notes that Vergara is durable and well-rounded but not exceptional. Daniel believes if Temirov fights with his usual confidence, he will win impressively, possibly even becoming the first to knock out Vergara in the UFC.

"I'm picking Temirov 100%... as long as Ramazan Temirov doesn't pull some debut stun where he's hesitant to throw, I think he's going to whoop CJ Vergara's ass."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Temirov is a much better version of Vergara, both leaning on striking. Temirov is more explosive, faster, and better with footwork, cutting angles to crash the pocket. He should land big strikes and find a knockout within the first two rounds.

knockout within first two rounds
"look for him to land his big strikes and eventually finding knockout here over Vergara within the first two rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

The MMA Guru picks Ramazan Temirov, praising his finishing potential, explosiveness, and activity. He dismisses C.J. Vergara as 'dog [__]' and notes Vergara's losses and lack of talent. He expects Temirov to win by decision, as Vergara may put up a fight and take a round, but Temirov's youth and experience edge prevail.

decision
"I'm going to go with ramesan Beck tamarov getting this one done probably by decision"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Zane thinks Temirov can win if he pushes for the finish, as he is an athletic freak with fast, accurate strikes. However, he notes Temirov has a poor understanding of pace and often wastes time circling. Zane acknowledges Vergara is a tough, persistent pressure fighter who could shut Temirov out if he's lackadaisical.

Odds too wide; Temirov should be around -150 to -200, Vergara around +150 to +100.
"I just think this looks like the kind of fight where as long as Tamarov like pushes for the finish he'll probably be able to win it"
LOSS vs Asu Almabayev
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Asu Almabayev 0 29 of 53 54% 66 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
C.J. Vergara 0 44 of 77 57% 85 of 132 9 of 14 64% 0 0 9:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Asu Almabayev 0 7 of 14 50% 13 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
C.J. Vergara 0 16 of 25 64% 23 of 34 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:14
2 Asu Almabayev 0 8 of 12 66% 25 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
C.J. Vergara 0 12 of 21 57% 36 of 55 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:35
3 Asu Almabayev 0 14 of 27 51% 28 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
C.J. Vergara 0 16 of 31 51% 26 of 43 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Asu Almabayev 29 of 53 54% 13 of 32 14 of 17 2 of 4 22 of 46 4 of 4 3 of 3
C.J. Vergara 44 of 77 57% 22 of 53 9 of 11 13 of 13 23 of 51 8 of 10 13 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Asu Almabayev 7 of 14 50% 3 of 9 3 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 16 of 25 64% 7 of 15 3 of 4 6 of 6 10 of 19 2 of 2 4 of 4
2 Asu Almabayev 8 of 12 66% 5 of 8 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 3
C.J. Vergara 12 of 21 57% 10 of 19 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 9 1 of 2 7 of 10
3 Asu Almabayev 14 of 27 51% 5 of 15 9 of 11 0 of 1 13 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 16 of 31 51% 5 of 19 5 of 6 6 of 6 9 of 23 5 of 6 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Angelo is confident in Asu Almabayev, citing his wild striking, strong grappling, and cardio. He notes that if Tatu Riera could take down Vergara three times, Almabayev can too. He sees Almabayev as safe to parlay, contrasting him with point fighters he's wary of.

"asu's going to win this fight he's just too good he's Wild on his feet he's great on the ground he can hang in the cardio Department with CJ and quite simply if Tatu ryra who is very good but …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Big Brady picks Asu Almabayev to win by third-round submission. He notes that Almabayev has good grappling and control, and that Vergara has been taken down and submitted in the past. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the mat and eventually find a submission over 15 minutes.

win by third round submission
"give me alv here Alma to win this fight by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Cody thinks Almabayev's wrestling will be too much for Vergara, who has poor takedown defense. He expects Almabayev to chain wrestle and control the fight on the ground, possibly securing a submission.

Almabayev by submission (+150)
"I gotta roll with the favorite here what is assu by sub let's see it's early in the week obviously the early prelims don't have too many props out plus 150 and moving it opened at plus 175 I mean …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Daniel picks Almabayev, believing he will dictate the pace and win by decision or submission. He notes Vergara is durable and well-rounded but not special anywhere. Daniel was initially low on Almabayev but was impressed by his performance against Ode' Osbourne.

"I think that alabay is going to dictate the pace and he's going to win on the scorecards or or by submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Almabayev is a hot prospect who is very solid all around, but his best work is when he gets fights to the mat. He has impressive chain wrestling, using body locks and trips to drag opponents down. Vergara is a decent striker but lacks the power to keep Almabayev at bay, and his ground game is a weakness. I expect Almabayev to drag this fight to the ground, dominate from top position, and secure another submission victory.

Almabayev by submission
"I expect alab to drag this fight to the ground dominate from that top position and secure another submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

Paul agrees, noting that Vergara has been taken down repeatedly and submitted in the past. He thinks Almabayev's wrestling and submission skills will lead to a finish.

Almabayev by submission (+150)
"I gotta roll with the favorite here what is assu by sub let's see it's early in the week obviously the early prelims don't have too many props out plus 150 and moving it opened at plus 175 I mean …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Asu Almabayev

The MMA Guru is confident in Asu Almabayev due to his grappling advantage and C.J. Vergara's unimpressive UFC run. He notes Vergara has struggled against lower-level opponents and was dominated by Tatsuya Taira and Ode' Osbourne. He highlights Almabayev's dominant grappling win over Osbourne and predicts a first-round submission.

submission in the first round
"I am going to have to side with the grappling of ASU almv ... I'm going to go with ASU alab BV winning this fight by submission in the first round"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
C.J. Vergara 0 109 of 181 60% 109 of 181 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vinicius Salvador 0 88 of 195 45% 89 of 196 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 C.J. Vergara 0 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vinicius Salvador 0 20 of 40 50% 20 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 C.J. Vergara 0 45 of 71 63% 45 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vinicius Salvador 0 30 of 64 46% 31 of 65 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
3 C.J. Vergara 0 44 of 77 57% 44 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vinicius Salvador 0 38 of 91 41% 38 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
C.J. Vergara 109 of 181 60% 43 of 102 45 of 57 21 of 22 104 of 176 5 of 5 0 of 0
Vinicius Salvador 88 of 195 45% 54 of 154 19 of 25 15 of 16 87 of 194 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 C.J. Vergara 20 of 33 60% 4 of 14 10 of 13 6 of 6 20 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vinicius Salvador 20 of 40 50% 8 of 26 3 of 4 9 of 10 20 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 C.J. Vergara 45 of 71 63% 14 of 34 21 of 26 10 of 11 41 of 67 4 of 4 0 of 0
Vinicius Salvador 30 of 64 46% 19 of 50 6 of 9 5 of 5 29 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 C.J. Vergara 44 of 77 57% 25 of 54 14 of 18 5 of 5 43 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
Vinicius Salvador 38 of 91 41% 27 of 78 10 of 12 1 of 1 38 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2023 (6 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Angelo is very confident in C.J. Vergara, calling him as close to a lock as you can get. He highlights Vergara's incredible chin, pressure, power, and solid takedown defense. He plans to bet on him but is monitoring the line movement for the best value.

monitoring line movement for value
"I think he's as close to a lock as you're gonna get we know he has an incredible chin if he gets caught he should have the better pressure equal or better power and solid enough takedown defense to stand …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Big Brady picks C.J. Vergara to win by late third-round knockout. He questions Salvador's legitimacy after a terrible debut, citing poor striking, takedown defense, and fight IQ. He believes Vergara has durability and cardio advantages, especially at elevation, and expects Vergara to weather an early storm and finish a fading Salvador late.

late third round knockout
"I'll take uh CG regara here I'll take him to whether the early storm put it on Venetia Salvador and I think he can finish him late third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Cody likes Vergara's significant strikes over 57.5 on PrizePicks, expecting a striking match that goes into the third round. He notes Vergara's volume in previous fights (71 against Rodriguez) and believes he can reach that number. He doesn't have a strong side on the moneyline but leans Vergara for the prop.

Vergara over 57.5 significant strikes
"some prize picks 57 and a half significant strikes for Vergara I kind of think that this goes at least into the third round"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

James sides with Salvador as a dog, believing he has cleaner hands and more power than Vergara. He notes Vergara is durable but gets hit often and has been hurt in multiple fights. He thinks Salvador can have big moments and possibly knock Vergara down, and that the line should be closer to a pick'em.

"I have to side with him a plus 140 I have to say he's the side"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

Salvador is a crafty striker who will have an easier time hitting Vergara than he did against Altamirano. Vergara's grappling isn't good enough to ground Salvador effectively. Salvador's output and damage will earn him a decision. I'm taking Salvador by decision.

"I'm actually going to take him to one by decision I think it's going to be the output and the volume and then the constant you know eating up of clock from Vergara whether it's in the clinch or with …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

Paul picks Salvador at plus money, citing his power and size advantage. He notes Vergara's lack of takedown threat and tendency to stay in the pocket, which plays into Salvador's hands. He worries about Salvador's cardio at altitude but believes his power can get the job done early. He calls it a 'dog or pass' but leans Salvador.

"I am actually going to take vinicius Salvador he was hoping he brings uh brings his lunchbox with him"
TKO (punches) R2 4:04 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
C.J. Vergara 0 83 of 144 57% 98 of 164 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:54
Daniel Lacerda 2 48 of 117 41% 51 of 120 1 of 2 50% 2 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 C.J. Vergara 0 20 of 38 52% 24 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Daniel Lacerda 2 44 of 103 42% 46 of 105 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:40
2 C.J. Vergara 0 63 of 106 59% 74 of 122 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:51
Daniel Lacerda 0 4 of 14 28% 5 of 15 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
C.J. Vergara 83 of 144 57% 57 of 103 16 of 29 10 of 12 34 of 65 0 of 2 49 of 77
Daniel Lacerda 48 of 117 41% 32 of 94 11 of 17 5 of 6 42 of 106 4 of 7 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 C.J. Vergara 20 of 38 52% 8 of 21 4 of 8 8 of 9 20 of 36 0 of 2 0 of 0
Daniel Lacerda 44 of 103 42% 30 of 84 9 of 13 5 of 6 38 of 92 4 of 7 2 of 4
2 C.J. Vergara 63 of 106 59% 49 of 82 12 of 21 2 of 3 14 of 29 0 of 0 49 of 77
Daniel Lacerda 4 of 14 28% 2 of 10 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Angelo is very confident in Vergara, calling him one of his most confident picks. He notes that Vergara is a high-pressure fighter who stays busy and is tough. He thinks da Silva is dangerous early but fades, and Vergara's pressure will be too much. He recommends betting 'fight doesn't go to decision' rather than a moneyline.

Fight doesn't go to decision (recommended parlay piece)
"CJ Vergara is one of my most confident picks on this entire card."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Big Brady picks C.J. Vergara by first-round knockout, calling Daniel da Silva not UFC caliber. He notes da Silva's poor cardio (2.5 minutes of gas), lack of durability, and tendency to fold under adversity. Brady believes Vergara's pressure and toughness will overwhelm da Silva, who has been finished in all three UFC losses. He expects a quick finish as soon as da Silva faces any adversity.

Vergara by KO/TKO in round 1
"I like Vergara here I like vegara by finish first round finish even"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Cody picks Vergara, calling the line bad and favoring Vergara's heart and cardio. He notes da Silva is explosive but fades after the first round, while Vergara is tenacious and breaks opponents down. He suggests Vergara inside the distance and likes the over 1.5 rounds on PrizePicks (over 5 minutes).

Vergara inside the distance; over 1.5 rounds
"Pick would be varaguera to improve this thing bear gear inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Vergara without hesitation. He describes Lacerda as a 'flyweight Eric Silva' who is dangerous in the first minute but then falls apart. Vergara is a proven tough guy who hangs around and doesn't get blown out, making him a reliable pick against a fighter with no regulation or longevity in his style.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm with you all the way on this one."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Jacob picks Vergara, agreeing that he should win with toughness. He notes that da Silva is dangerous early but fades, and Vergara's toughness should carry him. However, he feels da Silva is 'due' for a win and might pull off an upset, but still picks Vergara.

"CJ is a play because you should get it done but there's just something about Daniel it's like it feels like this might be his moment."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Lacerda

The host picks Daniel da Silva as a big underdog, believing his speed, explosiveness, and power advantage will be too much for Vergara. He notes da Silva is fighting for his job and expects a calculated but reckless style. He predicts a first-round finish, possibly by submission, and likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and under 1.5 rounds.

fight doesn't go to decision, under 1.5 rounds, Daniel da Silva round 1
"I'm gonna go Daniel Da Silva first round I'm gonna call it via club and sub"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

The Guru picks Vergara, heavily criticizing da Silva's fight IQ and defensive mistakes. He believes Vergara is more reliable and can tough out danger. He predicts a second or third round TKO.

second or third round TKO
"I'm gonna go for CJ fagara here... I think he's consistently more trustworthy as a fighter than Daniel de Silva is"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Zane picks C.J. Vergara because he sees Daniel Lacerda as a self-destructive fighter who explodes and fades quickly, while Vergara is tough, reliable, and consistently puts forward pressure. Vergara may be slow and not athletic, but he is durable and will be in Lacerda's face the whole time. Zane notes that Lacerda has imploded in every UFC fight so far, and Vergara is exactly the kind of grinder who can survive the initial storm and take over.

Odds: Lacerda opened at +220, currently +203; Vergara opened at -216, currently -256. Zane likes Vergara as a reasonable favorite.
"I can't pick the dude who just got his shit wrecked by Victor Altamorano."
LOSS vs Tatsuro Taira
Submission (armbar) R2 4:19 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatsuro Taira 0 22 of 36 61% 31 of 46 3 of 8 37% 2 0 6:19
C.J. Vergara 0 19 of 30 63% 29 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatsuro Taira 0 13 of 22 59% 21 of 31 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:30
C.J. Vergara 0 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:31
2 Tatsuro Taira 0 9 of 14 64% 10 of 15 1 of 4 25% 2 0 2:49
C.J. Vergara 0 11 of 17 64% 21 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatsuro Taira 22 of 36 61% 14 of 28 5 of 5 3 of 3 15 of 26 3 of 4 4 of 6
C.J. Vergara 19 of 30 63% 13 of 23 5 of 6 1 of 1 12 of 23 3 of 3 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatsuro Taira 13 of 22 59% 10 of 19 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 13 2 of 3 4 of 6
C.J. Vergara 8 of 13 61% 4 of 8 4 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 4
2 Tatsuro Taira 9 of 14 64% 4 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 11 of 17 64% 9 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 14 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tatsuro Taira vs. C.J. Vergara (129: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-240), Vergara (+200)

Round 1
For the second time in three UFC appearances, Vergara (10-3-1, 1-1 UFC) has come in well over the flyweight limit. Ahead of his pairing with the undefeated Taira (11-0, 1-0 UFC), Vergara clocked in at 129 ready pounds. While collecting 30% of Vergara’s paycheck, Japan’s Taira will try to keep his spotless record intact against a heavier foe. The Octagon ranger for this now-129-pound catchweight contest will be referee Kerry Hatley, and the two fighters slowly move towards one another with no intention of a glove touch. Vergara looks to close the distance early, sticking out a few jabs, and Taira stays light on his feet to respond with a quick high kick. Vergara lumbers towards the longer man, and he walks right into a left hook. As Vergara keeps plodding forward, Taira grabs hold of him, lifts him in the air and slams him down while letting out a yelp. The Japanese fighter lands in side control, and he grips tightly to squeeze his shoulder down on Vergara’s head. Vergara bucks a few times, but he only ends up getting elbowed for his work. Taira attempts to move to mount, and as he does, Vergara times a kick-off to stop the guard pass. Taira keeps moving, and he works his way to north-south position while Vergara traps his foe’s head between his legs with an inverted scissor choke of sorts. Taira shrugs it off and shifts to side control, and he glides into mount. The American times this perfectly to spin Taira around, and he finds himself on top. Taira does not accept this, kicking Vergara off of him and returning them to the feet. They trade kicks, and Taira shoots for a takedown as Vergara is backed up to the wall. Taira jumps immediately to full mount, but this is a short-lived positional maneuver as Vergara pulls him back and threatens with a guillotine choke. This is not the best plan for him, as Taira uses that against him and crushes down with a Von Preux choke. Vergara grimaces and manages to release his grip, and Taira slides to the side and prepares to move to mount again. Vergara skillfully turns Taira over, and he uses a modified arm-triangle choke to keep Taira honest. The unbeaten fighter grits out of the choke and stands up, where he promptly tees off on his man with punches and a knee. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Taira

Round 2
Vergara darts out of his corner, but he cannot find his target to start off the round. Taira drifts out of harm’s way and plans a leg kick so heavily that Vergara falls over to the mat. Taira allows him to stand so that he can lay into him with another nasty calf kick. Taira lets his hands go with a one-two, and he surprises Vergara with his left shin. Vergara attempts to respond with a looping left hand, and Taira changes levels and nearly walks into a knee. The American keeps his balance and backs off to score a few punches, and Taira responds with a knee strike and a takedown effort. Vergara backs off to the cage in an effort to keep himself upright, but Taira brilliantly snakes around the side to trip out Vergara from behind, where he lands on his back while claiming back control. Vergara fights off a body triangle from one side, and as soon as he moves to break it, Taira shifts his lefts to the other side. While Vergara attempts to escape, Taira latches on to a rear-naked choke, but it is on the chin. Taira nevertheless squeezes with all his might, hoping for a face crank if he cannot sneak the forearm beneath the chin. The Japanese fighter releases the submission so as to not burn his arms out from attempting an unsecured choke, and he switches to his other side with another rear-naked choke. Vergara keeps his chin down, surviving another choke, and he prepares to escape.
As his opponent takes a breath, Taira transitions right into an armbar, and Vergara stands up. The arm of the heavier fighter is still very much trapped in the armbar, and he considers lifting Taira up to slam him out but he does not have the horsepower to do so. The elbow hyperextends as Taira straightens the arm out and then some, and Vergara promptly taps out to escape permanent damage
. That’s one more win for the still-unbeaten Taira, who now celebrates exactly half of his pro wins by submission.

The Official Result
Tatsuro Taira def. C.J. Vergara R2 4:19 via Submission (Armbar)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Angelo picks C.J. Vergara as an underdog, noting that he has takedown defense, pressure, and is a dangerous striker. He is surprised by the 3-to-1 odds favoring Taira, as Vergara only has one close loss in the UFC. Angelo likes Vergara's chances and placed a half-unit bet at +205 (now +200). He acknowledges some nervousness about backing an underdog at these odds but is confident in his pick.

Bet 0.5 units at +205 (now +200)
"I throw half a unit on him at plus 200 all the premium members saw that or sorry at plus 205"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Big Brady leans toward Tatsuro Taira to win by submission in the second round. He praises Taira's elite grappling and back-takes, but has concerns about his low striking volume and wrestling. He notes that Vergara throws high volume and could win if the fight stays on the feet. Brady says he's not touching the -240 price but picks Taira to get a takedown and finish with his ground game.

Taira wins by submission, second round
"I am leaning on the Tara side... I'll take him to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Cody picks Taira by submission, noting his slick grappling and ability to take the back. He points out Vergara exposes his back when getting up and makes mistakes. He likes the submission prop at +350 and thinks Taira will find a finish.

Taira by submission +350; Taira under 60.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I think Tyra could very well find the finish here and and do so by submission so I'm impressed."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Taira has a similar striking style to Odie Osborne, using length and kicks, but mixes in solid jiu-jitsu and back takes. Vergara is tough and has pressure, but Taira should control the distance and find takedowns. The host is not fully sold on Taira's potential at -230 but expects him to win by decision. He likes Taira but not enough to bet the moneyline.

"I like Tara here just not 100 sold on his uh money line here at minus 230"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Paul picks Taira, expecting him to take Vergara's back and control him. He compares Taira's grappling to Ryan Hall or Aljamain Sterling, noting his ability to body triangle and neutralize opponents. He thinks Taira will dominate but is unsure if he will submit or just control.

"I gotta say uh targets the job does he submit him I don't know I'm kind of thinking he just takes his back and controls him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

The MMA Guru picks Tatsuro Taira, believing he has overcome debut jitters and will make significant improvements as a 22-year-old. He notes that CJ Vergara is underrated but gives up positional control and leaves openings in scrambles. He predicts Taira will find the back and choke out Vergara in the second round via rear-naked choke.

prediction: submission in round 2
"I think eventually tatsuro Terra will find the back and choke out CJ Vergara"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
C.J. Vergara 0 81 of 143 56% 93 of 156 2 of 7 28% 1 2 3:14
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 71 of 127 55% 155 of 221 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 C.J. Vergara 0 48 of 88 54% 52 of 92 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:54
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 27 of 51 52% 54 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 C.J. Vergara 0 13 of 17 76% 20 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:09
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 26 of 39 66% 65 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:58
3 C.J. Vergara 0 20 of 38 52% 21 of 40 1 of 3 33% 1 1 2:11
Kleydson Rodrigues 0 18 of 37 48% 36 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
C.J. Vergara 81 of 143 56% 39 of 91 32 of 40 10 of 12 70 of 131 6 of 7 5 of 5
Kleydson Rodrigues 71 of 127 55% 42 of 89 18 of 25 11 of 13 45 of 92 7 of 10 19 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 C.J. Vergara 48 of 88 54% 20 of 52 18 of 24 10 of 12 44 of 84 4 of 4 0 of 0
Kleydson Rodrigues 27 of 51 52% 12 of 31 8 of 11 7 of 9 25 of 48 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 C.J. Vergara 13 of 17 76% 8 of 11 5 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 13 1 of 1 3 of 3
Kleydson Rodrigues 26 of 39 66% 21 of 32 3 of 5 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 18 of 24
3 C.J. Vergara 20 of 38 52% 11 of 28 9 of 10 0 of 0 17 of 34 1 of 2 2 of 2
Kleydson Rodrigues 18 of 37 48% 9 of 26 7 of 9 2 of 2 13 of 30 4 of 6 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Angelo picks C.J. Vergara despite the bookies favoring Kleydson Rodrigues. He believes Vergara can get inside Rodrigues' looping punches and beat him to the punch. He notes that Vergara is a beast in the clinch but worries about Rodrigues' takedowns from the clinch. He references Vergara's striking output in his UFC debut.

"I think cj can get inside of them and literally beat clayton to the punch"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Kleydson Rodrigues to win by decision. He is impressed by Rodrigues' striking volume, mixing kicks to the legs, body, and head. Vergara is tough and had a close fight with Ode Osbourne, but Rodrigues is a much tougher matchup on the feet. Rodrigues has good get-up game if taken down. Brady thinks Rodrigues has more tools and will outwork Vergara over three rounds, though the -280 price is steep. He expects a decision win for Rodrigues.

decision
"I like clinton rodriguez here quite a bit ... I like rodriguez here and I like him quite a bit and I'm excited to see him make his debut"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Cody picks Kleydson Rodrigues, calling him a promising prospect with excellent technique. He notes Rodrigues' knees, elbows, and cardio, and that he improves as the fight goes on. Cody contrasts Vergara's straight-line movement and poor footwork. He believes Rodrigues will outwork Vergara and likely win a decision.

"i would think i'm leaning towards decision for clayton rodriguez"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Daniel Levi picks Kleydson Rodrigues confidently, though he does not bet due to the high price. He likes Rodrigues' athleticism, kicks, and takedown defense, and thinks he has a much higher ceiling than Vergara. He acknowledges Vergara's toughness and cardio but expects Rodrigues to win. He does not bet at -350.

Daniel does not bet this fight. He mentions possibly putting Rodrigues in a parlay but does not.
"My pick is Clayton. I think he's got the much higher ceiling. I think he's the much more potential. But CJ, he's got that spirit about him. So it's gonna be a good fight but give me Clayton to get …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

The host is very high on Kleydson Rodrigues, calling him a future top 5-7 flyweight. He praises his striking and jiu-jitsu, though notes cardio is questionable. He dismisses C.J. Vergara as a solid striker but not UFC caliber, pointing to Vergara's close decisions and draws on the regional scene. He expects Rodrigues to win via decision, as Vergara is durable. He might include Rodrigues in a parlay.

"clayton i think this guy is the [ __ ] i think he truly has the potential to be a top five to seven guy in this division"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

Paul picks Kleydson Rodrigues, impressed by his defensive capabilities and well-rounded game. He notes that Rodrigues barely got hit on the Contender Series and has good striking defense. Paul believes Vergara is limited, throwing looping left hooks, and that Rodrigues will cover the price tag. He acknowledges the debut nerves but is confident.

"i'm picking clayton to win in this spot i do think that he's uh he's a real decent uh prospect coming up into this division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kleydson Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Kleydson Rodrigues, praising his unorthodox style and power. He believes Rodrigues' movement and kicks will keep Vergara guessing, and that Vergara may become overwhelmed. He predicts Rodrigues will win the first two rounds, possibly scoring a knockdown, and win 29-28. He notes Rodrigues is a big, powerful flyweight at 26 years old.

Rodrigues 29-28
"i'm gonna go i've played some rodriguez 29-28 winning the first two rounds on his unorthodoxy and his power"
LOSS vs Ode' Osbourne
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ode' Osbourne 0 93 of 165 56% 122 of 197 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:41
C.J. Vergara 0 79 of 194 40% 89 of 208 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ode' Osbourne 0 24 of 52 46% 24 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
C.J. Vergara 0 34 of 75 45% 34 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Ode' Osbourne 0 28 of 48 58% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
C.J. Vergara 0 26 of 71 36% 31 of 78 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:17
3 Ode' Osbourne 0 41 of 65 63% 70 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:40
C.J. Vergara 0 19 of 48 39% 24 of 55 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ode' Osbourne 93 of 165 56% 35 of 99 51 of 59 7 of 7 68 of 129 16 of 22 9 of 14
C.J. Vergara 79 of 194 40% 61 of 168 15 of 23 3 of 3 77 of 191 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ode' Osbourne 24 of 52 46% 10 of 35 10 of 13 4 of 4 22 of 49 2 of 3 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 34 of 75 45% 23 of 62 9 of 11 2 of 2 34 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ode' Osbourne 28 of 48 58% 11 of 30 14 of 15 3 of 3 28 of 46 0 of 2 0 of 0
C.J. Vergara 26 of 71 36% 21 of 63 4 of 7 1 of 1 25 of 69 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Ode' Osbourne 41 of 65 63% 14 of 34 27 of 31 0 of 0 18 of 34 14 of 17 9 of 14
C.J. Vergara 19 of 48 39% 17 of 43 2 of 5 0 of 0 18 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Angelo picks Ode' Osbourne, citing his power edge, versatility, and size advantage at 125 lbs. He believes Vergara's forward pressure and boxing-heavy style will play into Osbourne's counter-striking and range control. However, he notes concern about Osbourne's recent knockout just two months ago, which may affect his chin. He also mentions that Osbourne has switched camps to Syndicate MMA and seems more focused.

Over 1.5 rounds (monkey knife fight line)
"i'm gonna go with oday here... i think he's got the power edge he's definitely the more versatile fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Big Brady picks Ode' Osbourne to win by first-round submission. He notes Osbourne's reach advantage and wrestling potential, though Osbourne hasn't used takedowns much in the UFC. He believes if Osbourne implements a wrestling-heavy game plan, he can make it look easy, but if he stands and strikes, it could be risky. Brady sees Vergara as vulnerable on the ground and expects Osbourne to get him down and submit him early.

first round submission
"I'm actually going to take osborne here uh for the win i'm going to take him to win by a first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Cody picks Vergara as a dog, citing Osbourne's history of fading after the first round. He notes Vergara's finishing ability in later rounds and durability. He suggests live betting if Osbourne slows down.

"i'll take cj vergara because you know cody's chasing a dog again"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne, citing his experience in big fights and reach advantage. He notes that Osbourne has fought on Conor McGregor cards and has been in there with tough competition. Levi acknowledges that C.J. Vergara is a talented dog with a bright future, but believes Osbourne's seasoning and the pressure of a Madison Square Garden debut favor him. He expects a close fight where Osbourne digs deep.

close decision
"give me the more season o'day osbourne in this spot"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Jacob agrees with Angelo, picking Ode' Osbourne. He highlights Osbourne's power at 125 lbs and his improved camp at Syndicate MMA. He worries about Vergara's takedowns, as Osbourne is a good grappler but not a wrestler, and could end up on his back. However, he believes Osbourne's striking advantage and the positive camp change will lead to a win.

"i agree i'm on the oday side of this but cj those takedowns worry me a little bit but i like oday all the way on this one"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

The host leans Osbourne due to his striking from the outside and sneaky choke game. He expects Osbourne to ground Vergara and look for a submission, noting Vergara's recent submission loss. He likes the under 2.5 rounds and Osbourne's submission prop at +285. He has Osbourne parlayed with something else on the card.

under 2.5 rounds (-130), Osbourne by submission (+285)
"i do lean the osborne side i do like his striking from the outside i do think it will cause carlos a ton of pr issues"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick, calling it a pass. He notes Osbourne's talent but worries about his cardio. He suggests live betting Vergara if Osbourne slows down.

"i would chalk this up as like a probably a pass"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

The Guru picks C.J. Vergara as the underdog, citing Osbourne's recent flying knee KO loss just three months prior, which he believes is too quick a turnaround. He notes Vergara's momentum from a KO win on the Contender Series and his aggressive style with powerful knees. The Guru also questions Osbourne's weight cut to flyweight and his durability, predicting Vergara will land big knees in the clinch and possibly finish with body shots.

"I'm going to take the underdog in CJ Vergara which I very much like the sound of because I don't know why he's an underdog here."
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Angelo picks Ode' Osbourne, citing his power edge, versatility, and size advantage at 125 lbs. He believes Vergara's forward pressure and boxing-heavy style will play into Osbourne's counter-striking and range control. However, he notes concern about Osbourne's recent knockout just two months ago, which may affect his chin. He also mentions that Osbourne has switched camps to Syndicate MMA and seems more focused.

Over 1.5 rounds (monkey knife fight line)
"i'm gonna go with oday here... i think he's got the power edge he's definitely the more versatile fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Big Brady picks Ode' Osbourne to win by first-round submission. He notes Osbourne's reach advantage and wrestling potential, though Osbourne hasn't used takedowns much in the UFC. He believes if Osbourne implements a wrestling-heavy game plan, he can make it look easy, but if he stands and strikes, it could be risky. Brady sees Vergara as vulnerable on the ground and expects Osbourne to get him down and submit him early.

first round submission
"I'm actually going to take osborne here uh for the win i'm going to take him to win by a first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Cody picks Vergara as a dog, citing Osbourne's history of fading after the first round. He notes Vergara's finishing ability in later rounds and durability. He suggests live betting if Osbourne slows down.

"i'll take cj vergara because you know cody's chasing a dog again"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne, citing his experience in big fights and reach advantage. He notes that Osbourne has fought on Conor McGregor cards and has been in there with tough competition. Levi acknowledges that C.J. Vergara is a talented dog with a bright future, but believes Osbourne's seasoning and the pressure of a Madison Square Garden debut favor him. He expects a close fight where Osbourne digs deep.

close decision
"give me the more season o'day osbourne in this spot"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Jacob agrees with Angelo, picking Ode' Osbourne. He highlights Osbourne's power at 125 lbs and his improved camp at Syndicate MMA. He worries about Vergara's takedowns, as Osbourne is a good grappler but not a wrestler, and could end up on his back. However, he believes Osbourne's striking advantage and the positive camp change will lead to a win.

"i agree i'm on the oday side of this but cj those takedowns worry me a little bit but i like oday all the way on this one"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

The host leans Osbourne due to his striking from the outside and sneaky choke game. He expects Osbourne to ground Vergara and look for a submission, noting Vergara's recent submission loss. He likes the under 2.5 rounds and Osbourne's submission prop at +285. He has Osbourne parlayed with something else on the card.

under 2.5 rounds (-130), Osbourne by submission (+285)
"i do lean the osborne side i do like his striking from the outside i do think it will cause carlos a ton of pr issues"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul does not make a clear pick, calling it a pass. He notes Osbourne's talent but worries about his cardio. He suggests live betting Vergara if Osbourne slows down.

"i would chalk this up as like a probably a pass"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

The Guru picks C.J. Vergara as the underdog, citing Osbourne's recent flying knee KO loss just three months prior, which he believes is too quick a turnaround. He notes Vergara's momentum from a KO win on the Contender Series and his aggressive style with powerful knees. The Guru also questions Osbourne's weight cut to flyweight and his durability, predicting Vergara will land big knees in the clinch and possibly finish with body shots.

"I'm going to take the underdog in CJ Vergara which I very much like the sound of because I don't know why he's an underdog here."