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Age 39
Height 6' 0"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 44
Height 5' 9"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Kamaru Usman
4.16 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
2.67 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
2.79 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
89.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Tyron Woodley
2.36 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.76 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.06 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
87.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Kamaru Usman - Fight History
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 0 41 of 99 41% 137 of 243 4 of 13 30% 0 0 12:57
Joaquin Buckley 0 44 of 148 29% 51 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 7 of 11 63% 41 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:25
Joaquin Buckley 0 0 of 4 0% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 0 10 of 21 47% 33 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:08
Joaquin Buckley 0 3 of 17 17% 3 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kamaru Usman 0 8 of 21 38% 33 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:35
Joaquin Buckley 0 10 of 35 28% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Kamaru Usman 0 6 of 20 30% 20 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:18
Joaquin Buckley 0 11 of 34 32% 11 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Kamaru Usman 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:31
Joaquin Buckley 0 20 of 58 34% 23 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 41 of 99 41% 33 of 89 8 of 10 0 of 0 22 of 69 2 of 4 17 of 26
Joaquin Buckley 44 of 148 29% 29 of 130 12 of 15 3 of 3 41 of 144 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 9
Joaquin Buckley 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kamaru Usman 10 of 21 47% 6 of 16 4 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 6 of 9
Joaquin Buckley 3 of 17 17% 2 of 14 1 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kamaru Usman 8 of 21 38% 6 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 7
Joaquin Buckley 10 of 35 28% 5 of 29 3 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Kamaru Usman 6 of 20 30% 4 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 1
Joaquin Buckley 11 of 34 32% 6 of 29 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Kamaru Usman 10 of 26 38% 10 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
Joaquin Buckley 20 of 58 34% 16 of 54 4 of 4 0 of 0 19 of 56 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-258), Usman (+210)

Round 1
The proverbial torch is lit and in the hand of former champ Usman (20-4, 15-3 UFC), whose only losses in the UFC are to Leon Edwards twice and against Khamzat Chimaev in a middleweight match that may have been a draw. After plenty of time off to get his head right, “The Nigerian Nightmare” hoists the flame and will do his darnedest to stave off the hard-charging kickfighter Buckley (21-6, 11-4 UFC). Something dramatic might happen in the next 25 minutes, and if it does, referee Mike Beltran will be on top of it. The welterweights are not brought to the center of the cage to receive instructions, and instead do it of their own accord, going forehead to forehead. They opt not to bump fists to seal the cage. It’s on with the show. Buckley practically sprints out of his corner to get after it, fishing with jabs to set up a left. They clash heads on the way in, and Buckley hops back uncomfortably. Usman no-sells it and plods forward, looping a single right hand and shooting for a double when Buckley fails on his counter. Buckley hits his seat, and he posts off an arm to try to recover position. Usman drags him away from the fencing so he can establish himself in half guard, and he presses down with his body weight to keep the striker flat. Usman postures up to hack down with an elbow, and after striking, he immediately returns to imposing every pound of his imposing frame. Usman finds a right hand around the guard as he smothers “New Mansa,” and when Buckley sits up, he connects with another solid right. Usman drags him back down the moment Buckley is about to escape, where he makes Buckley pay for his effort with some more ground-and-pound. Usman grinds effectively with powerful punches from above, and he stacks Buckley up to gain a little more distance and increase the potency on his attacks. Usman returns to half guard, shredding Buckley’s right eyebrow open with his elbows. Usman bombards Buckley with elbows and furious punches until time expires. Buckley stands up, blood streaming down his face, and he smiles.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman

Round 2
Buckley is just as eager to get going despite around five minutes of that, as he races at Usman letting punches go. Usman keeps his guard up to parry or deflect most flying at his face. Usman kicks the body and stays out of range of the counter left, and he ducks down directly into an uppercut. The 38-year-old’s beard holds up fine, and he measures a left hand and fakes for a takedown that draws an exaggerated reaction from his opponent. Buckley plants a side kick on the midsection that makes Usman take a funny step, and he surges at the former champ to put fists on him. Usman responds with one high and one to the body, and he defends the head kick that soars his direction. Usman uses a one-two to shoot in for a speedy single, and he strips Buckley’s footing out and sets him down at the three-minute mark. Usman climbs his way to establish mount, hopping to the side to control in half guard rather than giving Buckley a chance to get out. Usman keeps at least one arm under Buckley’s leg to keep him grounded, and he pummels “New Mansa” with short but damaging strikes with any free hand or wing. Usman hacks with another elbow to open the cut back up on Buckley’s eyebrow or eyelid, and he frames off to keep pounding on the kickboxer. Usman works Buckley over from above, hopping to half guard on the other side so he can beat down Buckley with right hands and elbows. Usman further works on Buckley, causing more blood to flow until the round ends. As Buckley stands up, Usman falls off of him, but it is not from ill intent and instead a strange position that befell the two.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman

Round 3
To change things up, Buckley comes out of his corner with his hands down, positioning himself in a more karate stance. He lands a single side kick, and he charges forward with a flurry of punches but ends up bouncing his head into the former champ’s. Usman shrugs it off and pitches a head kick at him, and he slides to the side and eats a left hand. Buckley connects twice before getting on his bike, not wishing to stand still so he is vulnerable to a takedown entry. Usman level changes to draw a reaction out of him, ducking a right hand over the top. Buckley loads up with left hands, throwing Usman off-balance but not dropping him. Usman’s jab re-opens the wound on Buckley’s face once more, and he jabs a front kick to the body. Buckley stays behind a power jab, and he dodges an Usman hook to catch him with two. Usman drops down, and he takes Buckley off his feet and assumes top position. Usman is quick to rev up his ground-and-pound engine again, where he further bloodies up “New Mansa” with his ultra-effective ground strikes. Buckley surges to a knee, and Usman leans on him and knees him in the posterior a few times to discourage him from standing without protecting his face. Usman tugs him back down, and he looks irritated that he has been taken down and controlled like this. Buckley posts off his arm and is wrenched down immediately, as Usman mounts him and bombards him with punches and nasty elbows. As the elbows continue to connect, the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman

Round 4
The fighters get right back to it, with a fire lit under Buckley’s belly. He swings a head kick and several punches behind them, but Usman’s head movement and footwork is making a huge difference even at the age of 38. Buckley tries to work behind his jab, switching stances so eh can chain strikes together, and he pops Usman twice as he retreats. Buckley scores an uppercut, stuffs a takedown and eats a right on the way out. Buckley keeps his hands low as he starts talking to the former champ, goading him into reckless exchanges. One such exchange immediately presents itself, and it ends in a bump of heads. Usman does not register as if anything happened at all, and he snipes the kickboxer with a jab. Buckley tells him it was a good strike, and Usman answers with a power double. Buckley sprawls about as deep as someone can against the wall, and he smiles that he might be able to defend this deep effort. The smile turns to a grimace as Usman lifts him up and down to the ground, where he once more establishes himself in smothering yet dangerous top control. Buckley starts booing from off his back, as Usman controls him, with “The Nigerian Nightmare” shifting from one side to the other. Buckley motions to Beltran as if he will be stood up, but Usman is plenty active and has not drawn so much as a single warning for a lack of action. Buckley sits to a knee, and Usman pounds on him with a free right hand and a few elbows. Usman winds up with a power punch, and his slashing elbow concludes the fourth frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley

Round 5
As if he wants to channel his inner Leon Edwards, Buckley starts the fifth round off with a mighty head kick. Usman tanks it, unlike his fateful title loss, and he keeps marching forward. Beltran asks for the fighters to close their hands, and they proceed to jab it out. Usman goes down low for a single and then a double, and Buckley manages to break off and defend from the effort. Usman tries to change levels again, and Buckley once more stops it in its tracks. This time, Buckley strings together a few punches on the inside on the break. Usman pierces the guard with a sharp jab and fakes a single, and Buckley ignores it and gives back two power jabs of his own. “The Nigerian Nightmare” tries again for a takedown, and a third effort fails. A fourth does as well, and Buckley lets his hands fly and knocks Usman back a step. Usman whiffs with a left hand, and he dodges a big hook that comes back his way. Buckley wraps a left around the guard as he approaches awkwardly, and the two crash into one another as Buckley anticipates an Usman takedown. Usman bullies him to the wall, but he cannot keep him there. Buckley explodes out of control and starts slugging away, catching Usman with short, compact swings. Buckley releases a big left hand and plants a side kick on Usman’s chest, and scoops an uppercut that buzzes the former champ’s chin. Buckley scores with a jab and an uppercut, stinging Usman and forcing him to backpedal as he appears to be hurt. Buckley rushes at him, looping an uppercut his direction but not landing it. Buckley swings with everything he has, smacking Usman and getting tagged on the way back. The two hear the final horn blare, and immediately disengage the offense and congratulate one another for five fairly entertaining rounds likely deserving of “Fight of the Night” given the lack of competition earlier tonight.
On the post-fight interview, the victorious former champ is nearly overcome with emotion, taking a moment to gather his thoughts as he expresses gratitude towards his opponent. Usman says that he feels great and that people should “shut the front door”—paraphrased to remove profanity—about his bad his knees are. While he does not have a name on his tongue, he does state that he should be one win away from a title shot at worst. No matter who the self-proclaimed “f---ing boogeyman” fights next, we will be there for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (49-46 Usman)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (48-47 Buckley)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (48-47 Usman)

The Official Result
Kamaru Usman def. Joaquin Buckley via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Angelo picks Buckley because he is younger, more active, and has speed and power. He notes that Usman is aging, hasn't fought in two years, and is on a losing streak. He believes Buckley will stay a step ahead and that the UFC is using Usman to build the next generation.

Minus 270 seems more than fair
"Buckley has the speed, he has the power, he has the cardio. I think he can stay a step ahead of Camaro the entire time."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley by third-round knockout. He believes Usman is past his prime, citing a two-year layoff, bad knees, and a washed performance in the second Edwards fight. He thinks Buckley is in his prime with power and will catch Usman's chin. He notes that a few years ago this would be a different fight, but now it's Buckley's time.

third round knockout
"I'll take him to win this fight by third round knockout. I think he knocks out Kamar Usman."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Connor picks Buckley, emphasizing that Usman's striking is built on posturing and a steady rhythm, and that Buckley's relentless pressure and power will disrupt that. He notes that Usman has never faced a high-volume power striker and that Buckley's wrestling scrambles and durability will be key. Connor also points out that Usman's age and knee issues make him vulnerable to being overwhelmed, though he acknowledges Usman could still catch Buckley with clean shots or force him into bad wrestling exchanges.

Usman opened at +207, now +222; Buckley opened at -279, now -248. Connor suggests the odds may widen.
"I think I have to take Buckley here but I'm I'm interested"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Age and bad knees are catching up to Usman at 38. Buckley is younger and better at this moment. He will stop the takedowns, punish Usman on the feet, and find a knockout between three and a half to four rounds.

round 3-4 knockout
"Buckley should be able to stop the takedowns, punish Usman on the feet, and I think within three and a half to four rounds, we'll see Buckley find that big shot to put Usman away."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

The Guru picks Joaquin Buckley, noting value on Usman but favoring Buckley's movement, output, and physicality. He predicts Buckley will get ahead early and stay ahead, finishing Usman by TKO in the fourth round. He cites Usman's long layoff, knee issues, and inability to physically dominate Buckley as key factors.

Joaquin Buckley by fourth-round TKO
"I'm going with Wim Buckley over Kamaru Usman. ... I'm going to say that Buckley finishes this fight in the third or fourth round. I'm going to say that Buckley finishes this by fourth round TKO against Usman."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Zane picks Buckley because he believes Buckley's youth, power, pace, and relentless pressure will overwhelm the older, worn-down Usman. He notes that Usman has never faced a high-volume power puncher like Buckley, and that Buckley's improved speed changes and physicality make him a bully at welterweight. Zane acknowledges Usman's technical advantages but thinks Buckley's hustle and stamina will carry him through, especially as Usman's knees and age have diminished his ability to maintain his own pace.

Usman opened at +207, now +222; Buckley opened at -279, now -248. Zane expects odds to widen further.
"I just think he's gonna get overwhelmed in the long run yeah and worn down"
LOSS vs Khamzat Chimaev
Decision (majority) (29–27, 29–27, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khamzat Chimaev 0 36 of 66 54% 58 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 38 of 70 54% 107 of 143 4 of 12 33% 1 0 7:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 3 of 3 100% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 16 of 17 94% 61 of 66 2 of 7 28% 1 0 4:35
2 Khamzat Chimaev 0 11 of 18 61% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 9 of 20 45% 12 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:41
3 Khamzat Chimaev 0 22 of 45 48% 41 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 13 of 33 39% 34 of 54 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khamzat Chimaev 36 of 66 54% 27 of 52 6 of 10 3 of 4 33 of 63 1 of 1 2 of 2
Kamaru Usman 38 of 70 54% 27 of 53 3 of 9 8 of 8 22 of 53 0 of 0 16 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khamzat Chimaev 3 of 3 100% 2 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1
Kamaru Usman 16 of 17 94% 15 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 16
2 Khamzat Chimaev 11 of 18 61% 5 of 9 3 of 5 3 of 4 11 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 9 of 20 45% 3 of 10 2 of 6 4 of 4 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Khamzat Chimaev 22 of 45 48% 20 of 41 2 of 4 0 of 0 21 of 44 0 of 0 1 of 1
Kamaru Usman 13 of 33 39% 9 of 27 0 of 2 4 of 4 12 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-285), Usman (+230)

Round 1
Unexpectedly preserving this fight, former welterweight kingpin Usman (20-3, 15-2 UFC) will be stepping up to 185 pounds for the first time in his career in the highly anticipated co-headliner. With just 12 days to prepare, he will collide with Chimaev (12-0, 6-0 UFC), who has been out of the Octagon for over a year while at middleweight for the first time since 2020. Many questions may be answered about both men when the dust settles, and referee Jason Herzog will take the helm for the second-to-last bout of the day. Chimaev has a wild look in his eye, and even though he offers a clap of hands, Usman is having none of it. The two look for their ranges, and Chimaev races forward and looks to take the former champ down. Usman defends it by dropping to a knee, and he springs back up. Chimaev grabs him from behind and looks for a mat return, while imposing his body weight on Usman. Chimaev presses Usman down and gets both hooks in, and he starts hammering Chimaev with hammerfists. Herzog asks Usman to work, and Usman sits up but still has “Borz” on his back. Chimaev fishes for a choke and mixes in punches, and he grabs the cage a few times to maintain position. Usman stays on his hands and knees, not allowing himself to get flattened out but completely nullified from an offensive perspective. Usman looks to shimmy Chimaev off his back, although this does not work. Chimaev looks for a potential choke and busts Usman in the face with a few punches and an elbow. Usman stands up, and Chimaev completes the body triangle and starts wrapping up a rear-naked choke. Usman fights the hands to defend against the choke, and he slams Chimaev right on his head to stop the submission. Chimaev flattens Usman out momentarily, but Usman sits up and leans himself against the fencing. Chimaev wraps his arms around Usman’s head, but the choke is not there. Chimaev works with strikes from around the sides of the head, and he drags Usman to his seat when Usman looks to recover. “Borz” sits up to land a few strikes, and the dominant round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 2
The second round begins, and both men are tentative to exchange in the early going. No strikes land for the first 45 seconds, when Usman jabs the body and kicks the calf. Chimaev changes stances after the kick, and he flicks out a jab. Usman fakes for a takedown, and Chimaev partially bites but does not sell out to defend an attempt that does not come. Usman puts the ball of his foot on Chimaev’s midsection, and he blocks a high body kick that soars back his way. Usman scores another front kick, and he gets pushed back when Chimaev kicks at his knee. The crowd grows restless at the inactivity from the two middleweights, and Usman goes down a little harder for a faked takedown. Usman lands a straight right hand and pump-fakes for another takedown, and he blocks a head kick. Chimaev gets off a leg kick, and he is jabbed to the body. Usman misses on a big right hand, and he leans back as Chimaev swats at him. Another head kick is guarded from the former champ, who looks for a level change and stings Chimaev with a one-two and follows with a calf kick. Usman reaches out with a left hand, and Chimaev shoots in deep for a double that puts Usman on his back with relative ease. Usman defends by tying up the arms and neck, stopping Chimaev from advancing or doing anything. Chimaev pops his head out in the last seconds, lands one punch, and the horn tweets.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 3
The last round opens up, and Chimaev dives face-first for a takedown that Usman comfortably stops and scoots away. Usman picks and pokes with jabs and leg kicks, and he reaches out with a right that brushes off the beard. Usman leans down and grabs Chimaev’s leg, but he lets it go to keep Chimaev thinking about the wrestling. Chimaev lands a body kick and gets knocked back with two fists, and this leads to “Borz” racing forward with a takedown. Chimaev stands up, and Usman rifles out several jabs to the head and body. Chimaev gets stung in an exchange, and Usman tags him with more jabs and shoots for his own takedown. Chimaev appears fatigued, with his winging strikes labored, and Usman can reach him when he tries. Chimaev drops down for an ankle, and he successfully scoops Usman up and sets him down courtesy of a single. Chimaev moves into half guard, and he grinds the former champion down. Usman looks to buck and prevent Chimaev from advancing, but time is not on his side. Chimaev does little more than control, but he is heavy and keeps Usman flat until Usman furiously escapes. With 20 seconds to go, Usman is on his feet, and he misses with a one-two. Usman lands a few punches, ducks the counters, and the two let their hands go right to the bitter end. Scorecards may be all over the place, regarding the potential score of the first round and the value of striking against grappling in this round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman (29-28 Usman)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (29-28 Chimaev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (30-27 Chimaev)

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Kamaru Usman via Majority Decision (29-27, 29-27, 28-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev, citing the circumstances: short notice for Usman, moving up in weight, travel, and a three-round fight. He thinks Usman's cardio won't benefit him and Chimaev's wrestling will be too much. He is excited to see Chimaev's takedown defense tested but believes the factors favor Chimaev.

"I do think shemaya wins this fight I just think Usman at 36 up in weight as I mentioned the Trav there's just too many things working against him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by first round TKO. He questions Kamaru Usman's motivation and decline, noting his age (36), injuries, and poor performance in the second Leon Edwards fight. Usman is taking the fight on short notice and moving up in weight. Brady believes Chimaev will take Usman down and finish him, as Usman has rarely been on his back and looked bad when he was.

first round TKO
"I like Jamay here I like him to style onar Usman and finish him in the first round by uh could be Tiko or sub pick your poison I'll say first round TKO for hamat chamay"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody picks Usman as a dog, arguing that Chimaev has not proven himself against top competition. He points out that Chimaev struggled with Gilbert Burns, who is a former lightweight, and that Usman is a former champion with elite wrestling and striking. Cody believes Usman's takedown defense will neutralize Chimaev's wrestling, and that Usman's jab and experience will carry him to victory. He also notes that Chimaev's lifestyle and lack of loyalty may affect his focus.

"I'm going to take Kamaru Usman first of all no reach Advantage going towards Khamzat Chimaev it's a 76 inch versus 75 in so slight one inch towards uh the Nigerian Nightmare Kamaru"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Daniel picks Khamzat Chimaev to defeat Kamaru Usman, arguing that Chimaev is on the rise while Usman is on the decline after his title reign. He believes Chimaev's athleticism, strength, and power are superior, and that the Burns fight humbled him and made him more mature. He notes Usman's cardio and durability but questions his knees and motivation, suggesting Usman is cashing out. Daniel expects Chimaev to show he is the next generation and win, possibly by finishing Usman early or outworking him.

Chimaev minus 300, Usman plus 260; mentions possibility of early finish or Usman taking over later
"I truly do believe jamayah will rise to the occasion and just show that you know he's got more left in the tank... I'm going to go with the undefeated Hamza Chimay to defeat one of the greatest welterweights of …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 23, 2023 (fight day)

James did not make a pick for this fight. He discussed the fight post-fact, noting that Chimaev dominated round one with a 10-8 but gassed out, and that Usman won rounds two and three on some scorecards. He expressed that Chimaev is beatable if he doesn't finish early, but did not state a pre-fight pick.

"I didn't really see that much from his striking that looked like he had a broken hand... it was a good performance with Chimaev but yes if you take him out of round one he is beatable."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman is a former champion with high-level cardio, great wrestling, and improving striking. Despite short notice, he has been active and can stop Chimaev's takedowns, push the pace, and use forward pressure. Chimaev has question marks about cardio and activity. Expects Usman to win by decision, possibly with a third-round sprinkle.

Usman by decision, possible third round sprinkle
"I'm going to be the contrarian here I'm going to be the guy that says that Kamar Usman can get back to his winning ways even on short notice against the guy shimay"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Paul picks Chimaev, noting that Chimaev has been preparing for a big Paulo Costa and has had time to put on size for middleweight, while Usman is coming on short notice and hasn't added muscle. He believes Chimaev can use his wrestling and reach advantage, and questions Usman's durability after recent KO losses. Paul thinks Chimaev cruises here.

"I think Hamzat absolutely cruises here he can use the wrestling if he wants to but he's going to have reach advantages and there is the bit of a question of is Kamaru Usman's durability in question at this point …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The MMA Guru picks Khamzat Chimaev by first-round TKO. He argues that Usman is used to a physicality advantage and has bad knees, and that Chimaev will walk him down and land a big power shot. He notes that Colby Covington was rocking Usman and that Chimaev is more dangerous on the feet. He also points out that Usman has no power off his back foot and no slickness, while Chimaev has close reach and will push him back.

Chimaev wins in round 1 by TKO
"I'm going to go with hamach chv by KO in the first round"
LOSS vs Leon Edwards
Decision (majority) (48–46, 48–46, 47–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leon Edwards 0 120 of 161 74% 123 of 164 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 87 of 205 42% 113 of 232 4 of 15 26% 0 0 5:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leon Edwards 0 20 of 26 76% 20 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 12 of 42 28% 13 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
2 Leon Edwards 0 23 of 26 88% 23 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 24 of 50 48% 32 of 58 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:45
3 Leon Edwards 0 24 of 32 75% 25 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 17 of 32 53% 22 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:06
4 Leon Edwards 0 25 of 41 60% 26 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 14 of 37 37% 15 of 38 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:51
5 Leon Edwards 0 28 of 36 77% 29 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 20 of 44 45% 31 of 56 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leon Edwards 120 of 161 74% 34 of 69 36 of 39 50 of 53 111 of 150 9 of 11 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 87 of 205 42% 57 of 163 24 of 34 6 of 8 65 of 177 21 of 27 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leon Edwards 20 of 26 76% 5 of 11 6 of 6 9 of 9 20 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 12 of 42 28% 5 of 32 6 of 8 1 of 2 12 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Leon Edwards 23 of 26 88% 9 of 11 6 of 6 8 of 9 22 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 24 of 50 48% 19 of 42 4 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 34 11 of 15 1 of 1
3 Leon Edwards 24 of 32 75% 2 of 9 8 of 8 14 of 15 24 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 17 of 32 53% 9 of 21 4 of 7 4 of 4 14 of 28 3 of 4 0 of 0
4 Leon Edwards 25 of 41 60% 9 of 22 4 of 6 12 of 13 25 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 14 of 37 37% 7 of 28 7 of 8 0 of 1 14 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Leon Edwards 28 of 36 77% 9 of 16 12 of 13 7 of 7 20 of 28 8 of 8 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 20 of 44 45% 17 of 40 3 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 36 7 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Angelo picks Usman because he dominated the vast majority of the previous fight and has not lost since 2013. He thinks the first round was a fluke and Usman will wrestle and control the fight. He is not betting because of the knockout loss but believes Usman wins.

"I think Kamara Usman wins this fight minus 250 seems like a fair price for a guy that hasn't lost since 2013."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Usman but with hesitation, noting he was clearly winning the second fight before the head kick. He lists concerns: Usman's age (35), injuries, travel to London, and the knockout loss. He thinks Edwards' path is a finish, while Usman can win rounds via wrestling and pressure. He predicts a decision win but will not bet this fight due to a bad feeling.

will not bet this fight
"I gotta go Usman by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody picks Usman based on the belief that Usman was the better fighter in the first two fights and can make corrections after the knockout loss. He compares it to GSP after the Serra loss and Cain after the JDS loss, arguing that great champions bounce back. He notes Edwards is dangerous but thinks Usman will wrestle heavily and win by decision, as he doesn't see a finish. He acknowledges the moneyline is unappealing and prefers Usman by decision prop.

Usman by decision
"I think you got to go with Kamara Usman on the basis of... it seems like Kamara Usman was the better fighter... I just believe that he's one of those great Champions that should be able to make the corrections …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Kamaru Usman

Connor believes Usman's pressure is the key to winning. He notes that Edwards is pathologically pressureable and retreats in straight lines, putting himself against the cage. While Usman has become less aggressive under Whitman, Connor thinks he can revert to pressuring Edwards, who has never shown the ability to hold the center of the cage consistently. Connor also points out that Edwards' evasive footwork is poor and his clinch game is neutralized by Usman's strength. He concludes that if Usman commits to pressure, Edwards has no escape.

Usman opened at -350, currently -246; Edwards opened +285, currently +199
"If Usman comes in and just commits to pressuring, I don't see how Edwards escapes that fight."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

Jacob is extremely confident in Edwards, having placed a $1,000 bet on him at +205. He believes Edwards was hampered by altitude in the first fight and still found the knockout. He thinks Usman's confidence is shattered after being knocked out cold and that Edwards will dominate in front of the home crowd.

$1,000 bet at +205
"I have a thousand dollar bet only on Edwards I got him plus 205 and I feel absolutely good about it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman is a former champion with elite wrestling and cardio, and he was winning the second fight before getting caught. Edwards is a great striker but has defensive grappling issues. Usman should lean on his wrestling and avoid striking exchanges, grinding out a decision. The line is seen as a gift given Usman's proven ability.

Usman by decision
"I think that's going to be look like a gift of a line once this fight is all said and done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

Paul picks Edwards, citing the UK home advantage and potential hometown scoring. He notes Edwards had success in round one of the last fight (takedown, mount, back control) and is four years younger. He thinks this could be the end of Usman's elite run. He likes the plus money value and says he hasn't bet it yet but is a buyer at north of +200.

"I'm gonna go the opposite side I'm gonna pick Leon Edwards... the fights in the UK we've seen really really shabby scoring... at north of plus 200 I'm gonna be a buyer on Leon Rocky Edwards to retain his title"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

The MMA Guru picks Leon Edwards to win by decision, despite a history of picking main events wrong. He argues that altitude affected Edwards in the first fight, while Usman trains at elevation. Edwards dominated round one when both were fresh, and Usman's glove grab saved him from a choke. Usman is coming off a brutal KO loss, is older, and had a short camp with a hand injury. Edwards is entering his prime and has confidence. He predicts a 48-47 decision for Edwards.

Edwards wins by decision 48-47
"I'm going with Leon Edwards decision 48-47"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Kamaru Usman

Zane agrees with Connor that Usman should pressure Edwards. He notes that Edwards has never broken 100 significant strikes in a five-round fight and tends to fight down to his competition. Zane highlights that Usman has a history of high output even with wrestling, while Edwards fights in bursts. He thinks the psychological adjustment for Edwards to stand his ground is huge and possibly impossible. Zane also mentions that Usman's wrestling and clinch work will be decisive, as Edwards cannot match him there.

Usman opened at -350, currently -246; Edwards opened +285, currently +199
"I just cannot trust Leon Edwards to hold on to an initiative at all."
LOSS vs Leon Edwards
KO (head kick) R5 4:04 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leon Edwards 0 83 of 135 61% 189 of 247 5 of 12 41% 0 0 10:36
Kamaru Usman 1 55 of 75 73% 64 of 85 1 of 5 20% 1 0 2:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leon Edwards 0 6 of 7 85% 36 of 39 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:21
Kamaru Usman 0 13 of 13 100% 17 of 17 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:01
2 Leon Edwards 0 36 of 65 55% 47 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:42
Kamaru Usman 0 20 of 28 71% 21 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Leon Edwards 0 10 of 17 58% 38 of 49 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:23
Kamaru Usman 0 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Leon Edwards 0 22 of 30 73% 54 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:51
Kamaru Usman 0 6 of 10 60% 9 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
5 Leon Edwards 0 9 of 16 56% 14 of 21 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:19
Kamaru Usman 1 9 of 14 64% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leon Edwards 83 of 135 61% 61 of 109 17 of 21 5 of 5 46 of 85 15 of 22 22 of 28
Kamaru Usman 55 of 75 73% 20 of 38 22 of 24 13 of 13 42 of 62 7 of 7 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leon Edwards 6 of 7 85% 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 4
Kamaru Usman 13 of 13 100% 6 of 6 4 of 4 3 of 3 5 of 5 2 of 2 6 of 6
2 Leon Edwards 36 of 65 55% 25 of 52 8 of 10 3 of 3 27 of 49 3 of 6 6 of 10
Kamaru Usman 20 of 28 71% 7 of 15 9 of 9 4 of 4 17 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Leon Edwards 10 of 17 58% 9 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 4 of 6 3 of 5
Kamaru Usman 7 of 10 70% 3 of 5 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Leon Edwards 22 of 30 73% 18 of 25 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 12 8 of 9 9 of 9
Kamaru Usman 6 of 10 60% 2 of 5 2 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Leon Edwards 9 of 16 56% 4 of 10 5 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 9 of 14 64% 2 of 7 4 of 4 3 of 3 9 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Angelo picks Kamaru Usman to defeat Leon Edwards in their rematch. He notes that Usman is on track to become the greatest welterweight of all time, with technical striking and power, as seen in his knockout over Masvidal. Angelo points out that Usman already beat Edwards in 2015 with six takedowns and 11 minutes of control time, and believes Usman can win anywhere. He also mentions that Edwards struggled against Nate Diaz, getting outstruck and needing takedowns to secure the win. Angelo placed a moneyline bet on Usman at -335 and expects the line to move further.

Placed moneyline bet on Kamaru Usman at -335, expects line to move past -500.
"camaro is the very clear pick for me and again premium members get access to our bets early and you will see that i placed a bet on camaro usman moneyline at minus 335"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman. He acknowledges that Leon Edwards is the better striker at range, but Usman has improved his striking with power and a great jab. Usman is a smart fighter who will use his wrestling and pressure, taking Edwards down and grinding on him for 25 minutes. Brady expects Usman to win by decision, though he notes a finish is possible given Usman's recent power. He respects Edwards but believes Usman's game plan and skills will prevail.

Usman by decision
"i do like kamara usman here i do like him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody picks Usman, emphasizing his stand-up improvement under Trevor Whitman, his wrestling, and the pressure he brings. He questions Edwards' resume and his ability to handle pressure, noting that Edwards has struggled in later rounds against lesser competition. He thinks Usman could knock him out but expects a decision.

"i got to go with uzman i don't know if i'd take it by tko or by decision simple fact is i think he could knock him out but you know logic would dictate he's probably going to grind him …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel Levi picks Kamaru Usman to win the rematch. He emphasizes Usman's superior pace and output, noting that Usman's output is almost double Edwards'. He believes Usman's top control will allow him to bank rounds by holding Edwards down. Levi acknowledges Edwards' paths to victory—slowing the pace and sniping Usman as he closes distance—but ultimately thinks this is a bad time to bet against Usman. He mentions that long-reigning champions sometimes lose when least expected, but he still favors Usman.

Mentions that the first fight was a decision but notes that no two fights are equal; Usman has been scoring knockdowns in recent fights (2,4,6,7 knockdowns in last 5 fights).
"my pick is Camaro here um I just simply think that right now I don't really see him like slowing down too much"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman's wrestling, cardio, and improving striking should overwhelm Edwards, who was nearly finished by Nate Diaz. The host expects Usman to grapple heavily and possibly finish late. He likes Usman round 4-5 or decision at -155 as a better bet than the moneyline. He includes Usman in a four-leg parlay.

Usman round 4-5 or decision (-155) is the preferred bet. Included in a four-leg parlay with Maverick, Albazi, and under 1.5 in Pedro/Hunsucker.
"I think gusman goes out there and does work i think that will see him go to his grappling more than he has over his last couple fights."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Paul picks Usman to win, citing his cardio advantage from training in Denver, his pressure and wrestling, and the ability to slow down Edwards. He notes the -400 line is too steep but still sees Usman as the winner. He mentions he might look for underdog value elsewhere but officially picks Usman.

"i think guzman you know puts the pace on them probably a lot of like at least in the early rounds like holding him up the cage foot stomps slowing down the mobility of leon edwards kind of grinding him …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Leon Edwards

The Guru predicts Leon Edwards wins via 49-46 unanimous decision, with two judges scoring it 49-46 and one judge giving it 48-47 to Usman. He envisions Edwards landing effective leg kicks, body kicks, and jabs, cutting Usman with an elbow in round one. He sees Edwards rocking Usman with a head kick in round two and an uppercut-left hook combo in round three. However, he acknowledges Edwards slows down in rounds four and five, with Usman taking him down and landing punches, but believes Edwards clearly won rounds one, two, and three.

Edwards wins by unanimous decision 49-46; one judge gives it 48-47 Usman
"leon edwards via 4946 unanimous decision victory against kamaru usman one judge will give it 48 47 usman two judges will give it i said i guess split decision two judges will give it 49-46 edwards"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 2 123 of 293 41% 158 of 336 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Colby Covington 0 107 of 281 38% 119 of 298 0 of 11 0% 0 0 1:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 17 of 43 39% 22 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Colby Covington 0 13 of 47 27% 13 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 2 36 of 71 50% 50 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Colby Covington 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:41
3 Kamaru Usman 0 23 of 58 39% 30 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Colby Covington 0 21 of 56 37% 23 of 59 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:05
4 Kamaru Usman 0 23 of 70 32% 24 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Colby Covington 0 33 of 77 42% 38 of 83 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:25
5 Kamaru Usman 0 24 of 51 47% 32 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Colby Covington 0 21 of 54 38% 26 of 61 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 123 of 293 41% 80 of 241 41 of 50 2 of 2 107 of 274 6 of 7 10 of 12
Colby Covington 107 of 281 38% 79 of 242 23 of 33 5 of 6 101 of 274 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 17 of 43 39% 12 of 34 4 of 8 1 of 1 15 of 41 0 of 0 2 of 2
Colby Covington 13 of 47 27% 8 of 37 3 of 7 2 of 3 13 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kamaru Usman 36 of 71 50% 19 of 51 16 of 19 1 of 1 26 of 58 2 of 3 8 of 10
Colby Covington 19 of 47 40% 10 of 37 6 of 7 3 of 3 17 of 44 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Kamaru Usman 23 of 58 39% 18 of 52 5 of 6 0 of 0 22 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
Colby Covington 21 of 56 37% 15 of 48 6 of 8 0 of 0 20 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Kamaru Usman 23 of 70 32% 17 of 64 6 of 6 0 of 0 22 of 69 1 of 1 0 of 0
Colby Covington 33 of 77 42% 28 of 71 5 of 6 0 of 0 31 of 75 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Kamaru Usman 24 of 51 47% 14 of 40 10 of 11 0 of 0 22 of 49 2 of 2 0 of 0
Colby Covington 21 of 54 38% 18 of 49 3 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Angelo picks Kamaru Usman, citing his development of knockout power, improved striking, and proven ability to win wars. He notes that the first fight was competitive and that Usman has since shown he can come back from being dropped. He believes Covington cannot win by stoppage and that Usman's power is a constant threat. He thinks the odds are too wide but still picks Usman.

More more on monkey knife fight (strikes)
"i gotta go with uzmon here oozman's the pick to win the rematch but these odds are far too wide"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman to win by fourth-round knockout. He notes Usman's improved striking power, as seen in his knockouts of Burns and Masvidal, while Covington is a decision fighter without power. Brady thinks Covington's volume will be competitive early, but Usman's power and technical striking will take over as the fight goes on. He expects a similar fight to the first, but with Usman finishing Covington late.

fourth round knockout
"i'm going to say a fourth round knockout for kamaru's"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody thinks the line is wrong but agrees Usman should win. He notes Covington's pace and durability but believes Usman's cardio and confidence grow as the fight goes on, pulling away late. He expects a close fight and suggests live betting Covington if the line moves.

"i think the line is wrong but i agree uzman should win"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel Levi picks Kamaru Usman to defend his belt, citing that Usman is slightly better everywhere and that the first fight was a classic war. He notes that Usman has improved his striking and has knockout power, but acknowledges Covington's cardio and heart. Levi is not laying -350 but believes Usman will be slightly ahead and win a close decision. He also mentions that Covington has been training at MMA Masters and may have improved, but still favors Usman.

close decision
"give me uh uzman to just be slightly ahead of covington and defend his belt"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Jacob picks Colby Covington, believing he will make adjustments and use his wrestling and volume to win a razor-thin decision. He thinks Covington needs to trust his cardio, stay in Usman's face, and avoid loading up on power shots. He notes that Covington was winning the first fight on his scorecard. He has a parlay with Covington and Chandler.

Parlay with Michael Chandler
"i'm going kobe i i just i just feel like colby's going to come in he's going to make the adjustments i think there's more wrestling"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The host picks Usman by fourth-round TKO, citing his power and improvements. He thinks the fight will be close but Usman's power is the difference. He considers the over 3.5 rounds and Usman by KO at +180.

Usman by KO (+180), Over 3.5 rounds (-150)
"my official prediction is going to be oozman via ko round four"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Paul believes Usman wins about 70-75% of the time, citing Usman's improvements with Whitman, knockout of Masvidal, and durability. He thinks the line is close to accurate but sees value on Covington at plus money. He bet over 3.5 rounds at -135, expecting a competitive fight that goes late.

over 3.5 rounds (-135)
"i pick him to win i think he does win 70ish percent of the time 75 percent of the time"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The Guru picks Kamaru Usman by fourth-round KO, predicting he will target Covington's body early, exploiting a weakness found in their first fight. He notes Usman's activity and mental edge from the previous win, while Covington has been inactive. The Guru expects Covington to win the first round but Usman to take over with body shots and eventually finish with a big right hand and ground strikes.

fourth round ko, body shots
"I'm going with kamaru usman here by a fourth round ko victory."
KO (punch) R2 1:02 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 1 21 of 40 52% 32 of 54 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:42
Jorge Masvidal 0 31 of 52 59% 56 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 14 of 30 46% 25 of 44 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:39
Jorge Masvidal 0 23 of 42 54% 48 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 1 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jorge Masvidal 0 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 21 of 40 52% 15 of 32 5 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 30 0 of 0 9 of 10
Jorge Masvidal 31 of 52 59% 13 of 33 3 of 4 15 of 15 27 of 47 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 14 of 30 46% 8 of 22 5 of 7 1 of 1 10 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 5
Jorge Masvidal 23 of 42 54% 12 of 30 2 of 3 9 of 9 19 of 37 0 of 0 4 of 5
2 Kamaru Usman 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 5
Jorge Masvidal 8 of 10 80% 1 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 6 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jorge Masvidal

Angelo relays Glover Teixeira's pick of Masvidal, noting that with a full camp Masvidal has takedown defense and striking edge. He agrees with the logic, mentioning Glover's ties to American Top Team and his training with Masvidal. Angelo seems to endorse the pick, calling it good insight.

"i think it's a good pick we got some nice insight there"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Usman to win a comfortable decision. He expects Usman to implement his game plan of takedowns, cage control, and foot stomps, grinding out Masvidal. He notes Masvidal has power but Usman has never been KO'd and has excellent takedown defense. He considers Usman a safe parlay piece.

Usman by decision; parlay piece
"give me kamara usman for the win... solid parlay piece"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing Usman's wrestling and grinding style. He notes Masvidal's age (36) and journeyman status, and that Usman's jab and clinch work will wear him down. He sees a similar outcome to the first fight, with Usman winning by decision. He mentions the -425 price is in line with an 80% win rate and that Usman by decision is a likely prop.

Usman by decision, over 4.5 rounds, Usman minus 125 (prop for decision)
"i think that the first the way that the first fight plays out is the same thing here he just wears on georgie up against the cage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel picks Kamaru Usman to retain his belt, expecting him to take over in the later rounds as Masvidal fades. He acknowledges Masvidal's improved conditioning with a full camp and his one-punch KO power, but believes Usman's work rate and pressure will be too much. He notes the odds are wide and calls it a dog or pass situation from a betting perspective.

dog or pass situation
"i'm gonna go with uzmana and still"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

I think Usman will repeat his performance from the first fight: grinding Masvidal against the cage, using foot stomps, and controlling the pace. Masvidal is durable and hasn't been finished in 12 years, so a decision is likely. Usman's cardio and wrestling are superior. I like Usman by decision at -130, which improves the moneyline odds.

Usman by decision -130
"i'm going kamar oozman by decision we're getting minus 130 on that line right now i think that's a great line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Paul believes Usman will replicate the first fight: grinding Masvidal against the cage, using his wrestling and jab to control the fight. He notes Masvidal's durability and puncher's chance but sees Usman as the superior technician. He expects a decision win, similar to the first fight, and thinks the -425 price is fair but not a value bet.

Usman by decision, over 4.5 rounds, Usman minus 125 (prop for decision)
"i think it's usman oozman by decision all over again"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The MMA Guru picks Kamaru Usman by decision. He notes that Usman had a full camp for Masvidal this time, unlike the short-notice first fight, and that Usman's striking has improved under Trevor Whitman. He believes Usman's grappling is too good and that Masvidal hasn't made significant improvements. He predicts Usman will win with a possible 10-8 round, though Masvidal may take the first round.

"i'm gonna go with kamaru osman of course"
WIN vs Gilbert Burns
TKO (punches) R3 0:34 · UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · Feb 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 2 83 of 136 61% 93 of 149 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:05
Gilbert Burns 0 45 of 108 41% 55 of 124 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 31 of 53 58% 40 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Gilbert Burns 0 22 of 56 39% 32 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 1 39 of 65 60% 40 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Gilbert Burns 0 21 of 50 42% 21 of 51 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Kamaru Usman 1 13 of 18 72% 13 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Gilbert Burns 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 83 of 136 61% 56 of 105 11 of 15 16 of 16 54 of 100 3 of 4 26 of 32
Gilbert Burns 45 of 108 41% 18 of 75 13 of 14 14 of 19 44 of 104 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 31 of 53 58% 10 of 31 8 of 9 13 of 13 13 of 34 3 of 3 15 of 16
Gilbert Burns 22 of 56 39% 12 of 43 7 of 7 3 of 6 21 of 52 1 of 4 0 of 0
2 Kamaru Usman 39 of 65 60% 33 of 57 3 of 5 3 of 3 39 of 64 0 of 1 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 21 of 50 42% 6 of 32 5 of 6 10 of 12 21 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kamaru Usman 13 of 18 72% 13 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 16
Gilbert Burns 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Welterweight Title Fight: Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns

Round 1
The welterweight championship will go to the winner of the UFC 258 headliner, as “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman (17-1, 12-0 UFC) tries to make it 13 wins in 13 appearances against the exceptionally dangerous “Durinho” Burns (19-3, 12-3 UFC). This rare high-stakes tilt between teammates will draw oversight from referee Herb Dean, and surprisingly, there is no glove touch between the two as they share a very intense stare down. Burns rushes in with a home run right hand, and Usman sees it coming and bats it away. Burns loads up on a few leg kicks, and lets go with a heavy body kick. Burns nails Usman with a huge right hand, and Usman drops to a knee. Usman recovers, get stung with an overhand right again, and he is still hurt. Usman fires back, and he clips Burns, but the Brazilian is ready to keep throwing. Burns lets loose a head kick that Usman eats flush, and he falls to his back. Usman does not oblige him by jumping into the submission magician’s guard, and instead stands above and kicks at Burns’ thigh. Burns threatens with upkicks and straight kicks to the knee, and the two are stalled out in this kicking situation. Usman picks up Burns’ leg and scores a series of thudding kicks to the thigh. Usman dives down to land a flush right hand, and Burns’ confident face shifts to one of concern. When Burns springs up, he greets Usman with a knee on the chin. Usman reaches out with a jab, and he lands two more while Burns comes up short with a few of his own. Burns stings the champ with a left hand, and Usman reacts every time he takes one. Usman hacks at the leg with a kick, and Burns gives him one back. Usman drops in a body kick and a low kick, and the two trade these low strikes. Burns gets off a right hand over the top, and Usman takes it flush and lands a few stern jabs. The Brazilian lets fly a head kick, and shoots in for a takedown after his leg lands. Usman pushes him away and blocks a subsequent head kick. Burns connects with a right hand, and a few strikes follow suit in a strong combination from Burns. Usman fires back, and when the horn sounds, the two welterweights smile at one another before bumping fists.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
Burns marches out of his corner to throw bombs, and Usman absorbs a few punches and stumbles as he walks back. Usman tries to recover some ground with several jabs, and he steps out of the way of a leg kick. A piston-like jab finds its home on Burns’ jaw, and the Brazilian retaliates with a head kick. Usman keeps sticking out the jab, allowing Burns to kick his lead leg out. Usman keeps focused landing the jab practically at will, and Burns diversifies his striking game with body kicks, leg kicks, long punches and other strikes that reach the target. Usman stays composed with repeated jabs, and Burns hurts him with an overhand right. Usman fires back with a right hand that is not quite as substantial. Burns rushes forward with a triple jab, and he gets jabbed a few times to break up a heavy combination. Usman winds up with a monster right hand, and Burns drops to a knee. “Durinho” is hurt badly, and Usman drills him with a few more punches as Burns falls against the fence. Usman stuffs a takedown to jab up Burns’ face, and he follows the jabs with several overhand rights that do more damage. Burns’ nose is marked up, and he is resorting to throwing haymakers while Usman marches him down and touches him with the jab. Burns swings with a big right hand, and Usman blocks it only to return fire with a leg kick. Burns successfully lands a pair of punches, and a retaliatory jab from Usman drops Burns to the canvas. Usman tells Burns to stand up, and Dean allows him to do so. Burns, light on his feet, kicks the leg as he circles on the outside. Usman keeps landing jabs, and he eats a pair of big punches to roll with them and land his own strikes. Usman slaps a loud leg kick home, and Burns ducks a jab to attempt a takedown. As Usman lands a few more jabs, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Usman

Round 3
Burns takes the center of the cage to begin the round, reaching out with long punches and a leg kick. Usman fires off a straight jab from the southpaw stance, and Burns crashes down to the ground hard. Dean rushes in to nearly stop the fight, and the champ leaps down to deliver some nasty ground-and-pound to try to finish the job. Burns rolls through it as he keeps taking punishment, but Usman does not let up. As Burns falls to his back, he is hurt and in a bad way, and “The Nigerian Nightmare” keeps pouring it on. Punch after devastating punch crashes into Burns’ face, and Dean has seen enough as Burns is no longer intelligently defending himself. Usman confidently strides in front of the camera and asks, “Who is taking what from who?” The champ is now a perfect 13-0 inside the Octagon, tying the active UFC win streak record with current lightweight king Khabib Nurmagomedov. What a performance for the champion, who overcame perhaps the stiffest adversity of his UFC career to record an incredibly impressive victory. After the official decision, the two friends and training partners share a long embrace, as Burns lets loose all of his emotions inside the cage. With UFC 258 in the books, the UFC will carry on next week with a Fight Night card in a long string of events until the end of March.

The Official Result
Kamaru Usman def. Gilbert Burns R3 0:34 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman to win by decision. He believes Usman has more paths to victory, including controlling the fight against the cage and using his wrestling. He notes that Burns' level of competition is lower and that Usman's takedown defense is perfect. He thinks Burns' only path is a submission, but Usman hasn't been submitted in over a decade. He expects a boring fight but a clear win for Usman.

Usman by decision; Usman is a fine parlay piece; Burns by submission is the only path for Burns
"I'm going to take usman here I'm going to say he wins by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel Levi picks Kamaru Usman to win by decision, citing Usman's relentless work rate and output. He notes that Usman lands far more strikes than Burns (e.g., 175 vs Colby, 130 vs RDA) and questions Burns' ability to maintain pace over five rounds. He acknowledges Burns' power and submission threat but believes Usman's pressure and cardio will wear him down. He also mentions the former teammate dynamic and that Burns must have fight-changing moments to win.

Usman by decision; Burns must finish to win; mentions Burns' submission threat but says it's been 8 years since he was submitted
"i just see usman wearing on him down the stretch and winning a decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The host believes Usman is the better fighter with superior wrestling, pace, pressure, and strength. He notes that Burns' impressive run includes wins over an aging Tyron Woodley and a past-prime Demian Maia, and that Burns has never faced pressure like Usman's. He expects Usman to drown Burns in the later rounds with his cardio and clinch work, predicting a decision victory.

by decision prop mentioned as potential play
"i just don't see where burns will truly be able to beat him like the durability of kamaru usman is amazing he's never been knocked down in the ufc"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

The Guru picks Gilbert Burns as a significant underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight that should not have such wide odds. He believes Burns has better stand-up and grappling technique, dangerous knockout power, and the advantage of training with Usman's former teammates at Sanford MMA who know his weaknesses. He also notes Usman's recent broken nose and recovery issues. He predicts Burns will catch Usman in an exchange and win by TKO in the first or second round.

Burns by TKO in first or second round; odds are too wide; Burns is a 3-to-1 underdog
"i'm going with gilbert burns... this is the most dangerous defense of usman's belt... how on earth is gilbert burns that much of an underdog this is a 50 50 bout man"
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 0 94 of 151 62% 263 of 341 5 of 16 31% 0 0 16:38
Jorge Masvidal 0 66 of 125 52% 88 of 157 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 18 of 40 45% 25 of 50 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:36
Jorge Masvidal 0 24 of 43 55% 34 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 0 27 of 32 84% 94 of 107 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:40
Jorge Masvidal 0 20 of 32 62% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kamaru Usman 0 14 of 27 51% 46 of 61 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:14
Jorge Masvidal 0 12 of 19 63% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Kamaru Usman 0 23 of 31 74% 75 of 90 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:37
Jorge Masvidal 0 6 of 15 40% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Kamaru Usman 0 12 of 21 57% 23 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:31
Jorge Masvidal 0 4 of 16 25% 7 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 94 of 151 62% 43 of 96 49 of 53 2 of 2 42 of 86 39 of 49 13 of 16
Jorge Masvidal 66 of 125 52% 23 of 69 29 of 39 14 of 17 38 of 90 27 of 34 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 18 of 40 45% 7 of 27 10 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 30 7 of 8 2 of 2
Jorge Masvidal 24 of 43 55% 13 of 28 5 of 9 6 of 6 16 of 32 7 of 10 1 of 1
2 Kamaru Usman 27 of 32 84% 10 of 15 17 of 17 0 of 0 11 of 14 16 of 18 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 20 of 32 62% 5 of 16 11 of 12 4 of 4 10 of 21 10 of 11 0 of 0
3 Kamaru Usman 14 of 27 51% 10 of 23 4 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 14 2 of 5 6 of 8
Jorge Masvidal 12 of 19 63% 2 of 8 6 of 7 4 of 4 8 of 15 4 of 4 0 of 0
4 Kamaru Usman 23 of 31 74% 9 of 15 13 of 15 1 of 1 9 of 14 14 of 17 0 of 0
Jorge Masvidal 6 of 15 40% 2 of 9 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 8 4 of 7 0 of 0
5 Kamaru Usman 12 of 21 57% 7 of 16 5 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 14 0 of 1 5 of 6
Jorge Masvidal 4 of 16 25% 1 of 8 3 of 5 0 of 3 2 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman by comfortable decision, citing Usman's wrestling and takedowns as the key. He notes Masvidal has been taken down often and Usman is a smart fighter who won't stand and trade. He thinks the line should be wider and Masvidal's only chance is a knockout off his back, which is unlikely.

"i see usman uh winning a decision here pretty comfortably ... i think it should be a little bit wider than that honestly"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel Levi leans toward Kamaru Usman, citing his full camp, size, wrestling, and cardio. He expects Usman to use a clinch-heavy, grinding game plan to wear down Masvidal. However, he acknowledges Masvidal's momentum and power, and says he wouldn't be surprised by an upset. He picks Usman by decision, but as a fan he roots for Masvidal.

predicts decision win for Usman
"I'll lean with Guzman as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman is a nightmare matchup for Masvidal with his relentless pace, pressure, cardio, and wrestling. Masvidal's only chance is a Hail Mary strike, but Usman's striking is good enough to close the distance and implement his grappling. The line at -225 is great value; Usman should dominate and win by decision. This is the lock of the night.

lock of the night play, bet at -267
"c'mon lucemon is the better fighter he is gonna win this fight and I've never been so convicted"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The Guru is confident Usman wins, predicting he will maul Masvidal. He notes that Masvidal has a 25% chance of landing something big in the first round but doesn't see it happening. He emphasizes Usman's size, wrestling, and the fact that Masvidal is taking the fight on short notice.

Mentions Masvidal has a 25% chance of winning, says 'mark my words journey man Jorge is getting mauled'
"mark my words journey man Jorge is getting mauled that's my prediction"
Tyron Woodley - Fight History
LOSS vs Vicente Luque
Submission (brabo choke) R1 3:56 · UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou 2 · Mar 27, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vicente Luque 0 18 of 40 45% 21 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Tyron Woodley 0 25 of 33 75% 41 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vicente Luque 0 18 of 40 45% 21 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Tyron Woodley 0 25 of 33 75% 41 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vicente Luque 18 of 40 45% 7 of 27 10 of 12 1 of 1 8 of 28 10 of 12 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 25 of 33 75% 15 of 22 10 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 23 9 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vicente Luque 18 of 40 45% 7 of 27 10 of 12 1 of 1 8 of 28 10 of 12 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 25 of 33 75% 15 of 22 10 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 23 9 of 10 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win by decision. He notes Luque's high volume (5.72 significant strikes per minute) compared to Woodley's low output (2.33), and that Woodley has lost 15 rounds in a row. He believes Woodley needs a knockout to win, but Luque has never been knocked out in 26 fights. He also mentions Woodley's age (38) and lack of takedowns since 2015. He is comfortable with Luque winning a volume-based decision.

Luque by decision; Luque in a parlay with Tai Tuivasa from last week
"i like luca here pretty comfortably outside of lu you know woodley being the first one to knock out luke"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Cody picks Luque but is not overly confident due to the price. He notes that Woodley has been completely non-existent in his last three fights, losing every minute of every round. He worries that Woodley might finally let his hands go and catch Luque, who is hittable. However, he believes Luque's volume and technical striking will be enough to win a decision.

Luque by decision +150, fight goes to decision -150
"i ended up taking uh luke by decision plus 150 and fight goes to decision minus 150"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Daniel Levi picks Vicente Luque to knock out Tyron Woodley in the second round. He argues that Woodley has lost 15 straight rounds, is 40 years old, and no longer has the same speed or power. Levi believes Luque's calf kicks and left hook will break Woodley down, and that Woodley's hesitancy and lack of output will be his downfall. He notes that Luque has a 90% finish rate and is in a much better mental and physical condition.

second round knockout, calf kicks
"i think vicente lucay to knock tyron woodley out i'm gonna say second round first with the cav kick beating and then with the left hook or overhand right"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

The host picks Vicente Luque to win by decision. He notes that Woodley has been inactive, reliant on one-punch power, and has poor cardio, while Luque is a durable Muay Thai striker with good pressure and leg kicks. He mentions that Woodley's wrestling has been absent in recent fights and that Luque has never been knocked out in the UFC. He considers Woodley's inside distance prop at +600 as the only way to bet on him, but overall favors Luque's consistent output and pressure.

Woodley inside distance +600 is the only Woodley bet worth considering
"I do like Lukey here I think he wins this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

Paul picks Luque, calling Woodley one of the least impressive champions in UFC history. He details Woodley's pattern of low volume and backing up, and notes that Luque throws a lot of volume and has clean striking. He acknowledges the risk of Woodley's power but thinks Luque's pace and pressure will be too much. He is not betting Luque as a top ticket but as a second-line play.

"i'm going to take vincente luke but he's not a top ticket guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Vicente Luque

The Guru picks Vicente Luque by unanimous decision, citing Woodley's decline and Luque's advantages. He notes Woodley fights to survive, gasses out, and has lost muscle mass, possibly off PEDs. Luque's training at Sanford MMA gives him a game plan similar to Burns and Covington: clinch work, body kicks, and pressure. He acknowledges Woodley's value as an underdog and his power, but trusts Luque's chin and durability. He predicts a 30-27 decision with Woodley having early moments.

Woodley by KO is a value bet; Luque by decision; odds disrespect Woodley
"i'm gonna go with vicente luke by decision i don't i really you know what i feel like woodley fights nowadays to survive and not to like win"
LOSS vs Colby Covington
TKO (rib injury) R5 1:19 · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Sep 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Colby Covington 0 78 of 143 54% 232 of 311 3 of 8 37% 0 0 12:01
Tyron Woodley 0 34 of 83 40% 67 of 116 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Colby Covington 0 13 of 32 40% 36 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:18
Tyron Woodley 0 5 of 22 22% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Colby Covington 0 20 of 43 46% 32 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:19
Tyron Woodley 0 13 of 26 50% 24 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
3 Colby Covington 0 23 of 31 74% 51 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:23
Tyron Woodley 0 12 of 26 46% 23 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
4 Colby Covington 0 18 of 28 64% 104 of 123 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:25
Tyron Woodley 0 3 of 4 75% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Colby Covington 0 4 of 9 44% 9 of 14 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:36
Tyron Woodley 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Colby Covington 78 of 143 54% 47 of 106 22 of 28 9 of 9 43 of 101 19 of 20 16 of 22
Tyron Woodley 34 of 83 40% 14 of 58 15 of 20 5 of 5 26 of 74 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Colby Covington 13 of 32 40% 8 of 25 3 of 5 2 of 2 6 of 24 7 of 8 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 5 of 22 22% 1 of 15 3 of 6 1 of 1 4 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Colby Covington 20 of 43 46% 11 of 32 6 of 8 3 of 3 16 of 39 4 of 4 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 13 of 26 50% 7 of 18 4 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Colby Covington 23 of 31 74% 11 of 19 10 of 10 2 of 2 15 of 23 8 of 8 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 12 of 26 46% 6 of 20 6 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 21 5 of 5 0 of 0
4 Colby Covington 18 of 28 64% 17 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 16 of 22
Tyron Woodley 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Colby Covington 4 of 9 44% 0 of 4 2 of 3 2 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Big Brady picks Colby Covington by decision, believing Woodley is on the decline and Covington will use his wrestling and cardio to grind him out. He notes Covington averages nearly five takedowns per 15 minutes and Woodley's takedown defense may not hold up. He expects Covington to survive Woodley's early power and take over in later rounds.

Covington by decision
"give me colby covington by decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Sep 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Colby Covington

The host is extremely confident in Colby Covington's pace, cardio, and pressure, believing Tyron Woodley's only path to victory is an early knockout. He notes Woodley's poor gas tank and tendency to fade, while Covington's relentless wrestling and volume will overwhelm him. He predicts a fifth-round stoppage due to accumulated damage, and recommends betting Covington straight up or on round 5 props.

Colby Covington wins by TKO in round 5 +2300; Colby Covington wins by decision (alternative)
"I am super [ __ ] confident in kobe comington here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Colby Covington

The host picks Colby Covington over Tyron Woodley, citing Covington's volume, pressure, pace, and offensive wrestling as the keys to beating Woodley. He notes that Woodley has been beaten by these attributes before (by Usman, Burns, Rory MacDonald, Jake Shields) and that Woodley is 38 and fading. He predicts a fourth-round TKO via unanswered shots as Woodley tires and fails to defend intelligently.

fourth round TKO via unanswered shots
"I think we're gonna see a fourth round tko finish not by concussive damage just by unanswered shots and woodley not really intelligently defending himself."
LOSS vs Gilbert Burns
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–44, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 28 of 64 43% 65 of 101 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:47
Tyron Woodley 0 83 of 138 60% 156 of 211 2 of 8 25% 1 0 7:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 2 of 8 25% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Tyron Woodley 0 25 of 34 73% 29 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:26
2 Gilbert Burns 0 12 of 17 70% 34 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Tyron Woodley 0 11 of 20 55% 37 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:09
3 Gilbert Burns 0 4 of 17 23% 4 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 19 of 42 45% 19 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 8 62% 12 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:09
Tyron Woodley 0 18 of 24 75% 47 of 53 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:55
5 Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 14 35% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Tyron Woodley 0 10 of 18 55% 24 of 32 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 28 of 64 43% 14 of 44 12 of 17 2 of 3 19 of 55 9 of 9 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 83 of 138 60% 41 of 82 27 of 31 15 of 25 51 of 102 13 of 16 19 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 2 of 8 25% 0 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 25 of 34 73% 19 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 5 8 of 15 2 of 3 15 of 16
2 Gilbert Burns 12 of 17 70% 7 of 10 5 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 13 4 of 4 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 11 of 20 55% 3 of 8 6 of 7 2 of 5 5 of 12 4 of 6 2 of 2
3 Gilbert Burns 4 of 17 23% 3 of 14 0 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 19 of 42 45% 6 of 23 7 of 10 6 of 9 19 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Gilbert Burns 5 of 8 62% 0 of 3 4 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 18 of 24 75% 11 of 17 6 of 6 1 of 1 10 of 16 6 of 6 2 of 2
5 Gilbert Burns 5 of 14 35% 4 of 12 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 10 of 18 55% 2 of 8 5 of 5 3 of 5 9 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tyron Woodley vs. Gilbert Burns

Round 1
We have now reached the main event of the evening, in a pivotal welterweight pairing between ex-champ Woodley (19-4-1, 9-3-1 UFC) and the surging heavy-handed grappler Burns (18-3, 11-3 UFC). Since Woodley last competed, Burns has fought and won four times. This headliner will be officiated by referee Herb Dean, and a respectful glove touch commences the last fight of the night. Burns comes out energized, hopping around and avoiding long punches and a looping left hand from his opponent. Burns starts off with a low kick, and evades a counter left hand. They come together, and Burns nails Woodley with powerful uppercuts and short hooks. Woodley is stunned, and Burns bulldozes him over and puts Woodley down. The Brazilian chases after him and starts unloading furious punches, and steps over into mount while Woodley is still trying to clear his head out. Burns thinks to go for a submission, but opts to drop some left hands down. Woodley’s forehead is cut, and he sits up to put his neck in guillotine choke danger. Woodley calmly lays back down to get free from the threat, and Burns slices an elbow down. Burns remains heavy while trying to find an avenue to deal some damage, and Woodley is holding him tight. Burns postures up to rain down punishment, and Woodley uses that exact moment to burst out and get back to his feet. Burns takes the center of the cage and digs to the body with a kick. The left side of Woodley’s face is covered in blood, but the former champ is not afraid as he tries to throw a big left hand. Burns catches him on the way in with a low kick. Woodley tries to sticks out a left, and Burns fires a low kick that makes Woodley nod in acknowledgement. Burns hits him in the body with a kick, and clips Woodley with a left hand that makes Woodley clap his hands in frustration or to motivate himself. The round ends with a bloodied Woodley blinking his eye out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
With a solid cut on his head that has been patched well, Woodley is amped up and stings Burns with a right hand. Burns shakes it off and comes back to engage, only to get drilled on the side of the head once more with a solid right. Burns kicks low, and Woodley circles around the outside to reset. Burns goes up high with a kick, and Woodley’s offense has paused as he briefly reaches out his left hand to find distance. Burns stays loose on the outside, with kicks and the occasional jab while Woodley only reacts. Burns loads up on a huge right hand, and Woodley dives out of the way to avoid the blow. Burns crashes forward, and unexpectedly hits a double leg takedown -- Woodley’s takedown defense rate is historically high -- to plant Woodley on his back. Woodley tries to walk up the fence, and gets on knee but takes a knee to the torso. Burns tries to wrench him back down, so Woodley fights hands and takes a few stiff punches to get back standing again. Woodley turns around and lifts up a high knee, so Burns returns fire with a similar strike. Burns sneaks in a few short shots, and Woodley is only concerned with getting position back. Woodley grinds him against the fence for the waning seconds of the round, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
Woodley begins the third frame with a few jabs to keep Burns off of him, as Burns is advancing aggressively. Woodley is not following his jabs with any strikes, and only uses fakes after sticking his left hand out repeatedly. Burns commits to a low kick, and Woodley counters over the top with a straight right. Burns walks through it as if it never happened, and is hopping towards his opponent while blocking a few punches coming his direction. Burns fires a big right hook and hurts Woodley, but the former champ recovers well and returns fire with a right of his own. Burns drops his hands almost as if to taunt Woodley, and Woodley does not take advantage of it so Burns cracks him again. Woodley throws a big looping hook that lands on the shoulder, and Burns gives him a smirk. Burns aims for the body with a kick and a long jab, and the single strikes for the Brazilian are picking away at his adversary. Burns jumps forward with a kick and falls over, but “The Chosen One” perhaps wisely does not follow him down to the ground. Burns throws a left straight followed by a huge right hook, and Burns barely avoided it. “Durinho” tags the leg with a kick, and Woodley puts on a brave face but that kick did some damage. Burns is keeping Woodley with his back against the fence and he does not throw much offense going backwards. Burns digs to the body with another kick, and he ducks away while Woodley slings a right towards him. Burns works a few more low kicks, and Woodley is practically standing in front of him waiting to get too close so he can counter with a thudding right. Burns does not fall for the trap, and lands one last kick low to conclude the round. The Brazilian is so fired up that he is likely winning the fight that security practically drags him back to his corner after the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 4
The tentative nature of Woodley continues in the fourth, as Burns lands a left hook on him while not getting countered. Woodley ducks down to try to take the fight down, and Burns holds him up but gets shoved to the fence. After some grueling clinch work, Burns turns him around and lands a few knees and an “old school” foot stomp. Dean separates the two after some inaction, and Woodley celebrates the break with a big right hand that is blocked. Burns comes back firing, and lands a few sharp jabs that make Woodley clap again. A kick from Burns is caught, and Woodley tries to run the pipe and get him down but Burns hops away out of danger. Burns advances forward to get Woodley to bite on feints and fakes, and connects with a blistering right hook that nearly puts Woodley down. A follow-up right from “Durinho” lands on the side of the former champ’s head, and Woodley pursues a desperation takedown that is fruitless. After a clinch exchange, Burns is the one that pulls his man down again. Woodley is stuck on his back, while Burns gets in half guard and drops down some short punches. Burns steps over into mount and rolls into a potential choke, allowing Woodley to roll free and nearly end up on top. Burns pushes away, and when the round ends, we can see there is a massive cut on Woodley’s eyebrow.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 5
Burns opens up with a kick, and Woodley counters with an overhand left that sends Burns off-balance. Burns shoots in low for a double, and transitions to a single as Woodley sprawls against the fence to defend it. Burns leans heavily to drain precious seconds off the clock, and Woodley tries with all his might to spin out but is stuck. Woodley manages to finally turn his man around, but the minor victory lasts about five seconds before Burns regains position. The Brazilian tries to tie up the legs and hit a trip, but Woodley is wise to it and spins him around again. Burns signals to Dean that Woodley is not doing anything with the position, and Dean calls for the two to work. Burns punches around the back of Woodley’s head until they break. Burns marches forward with two left hands, and scores a leg kick. Woodley unleashes a ferocious counter right, and Burns ducks it and smiles. Woodley catches him on the way in with a left, and Burns is caught upright but eats it like a sandwich. “Durinho” lands a body kick as he pecks away while time is just streaming off the clock. Less than 90 seconds remain and Woodley is still with his back to the cage, not throwing much. They tie up, and Woodley presses on him while Burns once again protests. Even though he is almost certainly up on every round, Burns is the fighter that wants to continue throwing leather. Burns fires body kicks and looping right hands, and he still wants a finish even though he could easily cruise to victory. Woodley lands a counter left along with a right that gets blocked, and the horn sounds to end a fight that is totally one-way traffic. We have a new title contender at welterweight, ladies and gentlemen. See you next week!

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns (50-44 Burns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns (50-44 Burns)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns (50-45 Burns)

The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Tyron Woodley via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-44, 50-44)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tyron Woodley

Big Brady picks Tyron Woodley to win by knockout in the second round. He believes Woodley's takedown defense is elite and that Burns will not be able to take him down. He thinks Burns will come in overconfident and get caught by a hard shot from Woodley, who hits very hard. However, he notes that Woodley's mental state is a question mark and that Burns could win a close decision if he outworks Woodley, but he ultimately favors Woodley's power and experience.

Woodley by KO in round 2; not touching from a betting perspective due to mental question marks
"I'm going to go with Woodley I'm going to pick Woodley to win by knockout and in the second round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Tyron Woodley

Daniel leans slightly towards Woodley, believing that at his best he is the better fighter. He acknowledges Woodley's mental fragility and poor performance against Usman, but thinks Woodley's wrestling and power give him a clear path to victory. He notes that Burns has improved but is still hittable and may struggle with Woodley's strength. Daniel calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and is not fully confident.

dog or pass situation
"i'm gonna slightly lean towards the former champion woodley because i think at his best that he's a better fighter than gilbert dorino"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Tyron Woodley

The MMA Guru picks Tyron Woodley to win by TKO in the second round. He believes Woodley will be patient, let Burns win the first round, then catch him with a counter shot when Burns gets overconfident and tired. He notes that Burns is on short notice and had close fights with Gunnar Nelson and Alexey Kunchenko, and that his win over Demian Maia is not impressive because Maia was looking for a fight with Diego Sanchez. He acknowledges Woodley's annoying style but respects his skill.

Woodley by TKO in round 2
"I'm going with tyron woodley here I think he's gonna get the job done in the second round by TKO"
LOSS vs Kamaru Usman
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–44, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · Mar 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 0 34 of 51 66% 60 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 141 of 194 72% 336 of 390 2 of 6 33% 0 0 18:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 8 of 11 72% 19 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 22 of 32 68% 68 of 78 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:53
2 Kamaru Usman 0 1 of 3 33% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 21 of 29 72% 74 of 82 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:23
3 Kamaru Usman 0 14 of 19 73% 22 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 45 of 59 76% 78 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:51
4 Kamaru Usman 0 10 of 16 62% 13 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 38 of 58 65% 55 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:26
5 Kamaru Usman 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyron Woodley 0 15 of 16 93% 61 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 34 of 51 66% 12 of 28 18 of 19 4 of 4 10 of 24 24 of 27 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 141 of 194 72% 56 of 104 83 of 87 2 of 3 27 of 73 78 of 82 36 of 39
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 8 of 11 72% 2 of 5 6 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 5 6 of 6 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 22 of 32 68% 5 of 14 16 of 17 1 of 1 4 of 14 16 of 16 2 of 2
2 Kamaru Usman 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 21 of 29 72% 16 of 23 5 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 8 7 of 7 11 of 14
3 Kamaru Usman 14 of 19 73% 1 of 5 11 of 12 2 of 2 2 of 6 12 of 13 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 45 of 59 76% 2 of 15 43 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 13 45 of 46 0 of 0
4 Kamaru Usman 10 of 16 62% 8 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 8 6 of 8 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 38 of 58 65% 28 of 47 9 of 10 1 of 1 19 of 36 10 of 13 9 of 9
5 Kamaru Usman 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyron Woodley 15 of 16 93% 5 of 5 10 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 14
WIN vs Darren Till
Submission (brabo choke) R2 4:19 · UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Sep 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 57 of 79 72% 74 of 97 0 of 4 0% 1 0 5:29
Darren Till 0 0 of 6 0% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 11 of 23 47% 16 of 28 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:23
Darren Till 0 0 of 3 0% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
2 Tyron Woodley 1 46 of 56 82% 58 of 69 0 of 0 --- 1 0 4:06
Darren Till 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 57 of 79 72% 47 of 67 7 of 9 3 of 3 7 of 19 5 of 6 45 of 54
Darren Till 0 of 6 0% 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 11 of 23 47% 3 of 13 5 of 7 3 of 3 6 of 17 5 of 6 0 of 0
Darren Till 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 46 of 56 82% 44 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 45 of 54
Darren Till 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Demian Maia
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · Jul 29, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 57 of 153 37% 57 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Demian Maia 0 28 of 89 31% 29 of 90 0 of 21 0% 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:38
2 Tyron Woodley 1 14 of 29 48% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Demian Maia 0 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Tyron Woodley 0 12 of 41 29% 12 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Demian Maia 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Tyron Woodley 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Demian Maia 0 5 of 25 20% 5 of 25 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:11
5 Tyron Woodley 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Demian Maia 0 8 of 20 40% 9 of 21 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 57 of 153 37% 40 of 131 13 of 18 4 of 4 56 of 152 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 28 of 89 31% 23 of 83 2 of 3 3 of 3 26 of 87 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 6 of 18 33% 5 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 14 of 29 48% 9 of 24 3 of 3 2 of 2 14 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tyron Woodley 12 of 41 29% 9 of 37 1 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 8 of 24 33% 6 of 22 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Tyron Woodley 15 of 39 38% 11 of 32 4 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Demian Maia 5 of 25 20% 4 of 23 0 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Tyron Woodley 10 of 26 38% 6 of 22 4 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Demian Maia 8 of 20 40% 6 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Decision (majority) (48–47, 47–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · Mar 04, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 54 of 125 43% 70 of 141 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:58
Stephen Thompson 0 53 of 146 36% 66 of 159 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 6 of 19 31% 6 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tyron Woodley 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tyron Woodley 0 15 of 28 53% 30 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:48
Stephen Thompson 0 14 of 28 50% 27 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
4 Tyron Woodley 0 9 of 22 40% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Tyron Woodley 1 17 of 47 36% 18 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Stephen Thompson 0 13 of 41 31% 13 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 54 of 125 43% 28 of 89 20 of 30 6 of 6 30 of 92 5 of 12 19 of 21
Stephen Thompson 53 of 146 36% 30 of 115 17 of 24 6 of 7 52 of 144 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 5 of 12 41% 0 of 5 1 of 3 4 of 4 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 6 of 19 31% 4 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 8 of 16 50% 3 of 9 3 of 5 2 of 2 8 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 8 of 24 33% 4 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tyron Woodley 15 of 28 53% 8 of 20 7 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 14 1 of 2 12 of 12
Stephen Thompson 14 of 28 50% 4 of 18 9 of 9 1 of 1 13 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Tyron Woodley 9 of 22 40% 1 of 12 8 of 10 0 of 0 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 12 of 34 35% 10 of 29 1 of 4 1 of 1 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Tyron Woodley 17 of 47 36% 16 of 43 1 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 28 4 of 10 7 of 9
Stephen Thompson 13 of 41 31% 8 of 34 3 of 5 2 of 2 13 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Draw (majority) (47–47, 47–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor · Nov 12, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 61 of 141 43% 113 of 200 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:51
Stephen Thompson 0 43 of 161 26% 60 of 181 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 14 of 18 77% 45 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:57
Stephen Thompson 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tyron Woodley 0 4 of 22 18% 14 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:08
Stephen Thompson 0 6 of 31 19% 7 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Tyron Woodley 0 8 of 32 25% 8 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 10 of 47 21% 10 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Tyron Woodley 1 27 of 41 65% 38 of 53 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:46
Stephen Thompson 0 5 of 19 26% 21 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:25
5 Tyron Woodley 0 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 21 of 60 35% 21 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 61 of 141 43% 42 of 111 13 of 21 6 of 9 23 of 93 13 of 18 25 of 30
Stephen Thompson 43 of 161 26% 26 of 125 11 of 28 6 of 8 42 of 152 0 of 1 1 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 14 of 18 77% 8 of 12 6 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 17
Stephen Thompson 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 4 of 22 18% 0 of 12 3 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 6 of 31 19% 4 of 25 2 of 6 0 of 0 6 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tyron Woodley 8 of 32 25% 6 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 3 8 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 10 of 47 21% 5 of 37 3 of 7 2 of 3 10 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Tyron Woodley 27 of 41 65% 24 of 36 3 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 13 11 of 15 11 of 13
Stephen Thompson 5 of 19 26% 4 of 14 0 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 8
5 Tyron Woodley 8 of 28 28% 4 of 22 1 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 21 of 60 35% 13 of 47 6 of 11 2 of 2 21 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0