UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · Mar 02, 2019 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith Next Fight
Age 36
Height 5' 4"
Reach 63.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 36
Height 5' 1"
Reach 60.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Zhang Weili
4.66 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
2.63 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
1.96 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Tecia Pennington
4.73 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.48 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
0.56 TD Avg
14.0% TD Acc.
62.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Zhang Weili - Fight History
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 41 of 68 60% 137 of 186 5 of 6 83% 0 0 13:24
Zhang Weili 0 32 of 98 32% 80 of 161 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 8 of 13 61% 21 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
Zhang Weili 0 7 of 17 41% 15 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 9 of 10 90% 34 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:09
Zhang Weili 0 1 of 8 12% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Valentina Shevchenko 0 7 of 18 38% 19 of 32 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:43
Zhang Weili 0 9 of 26 34% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
4 Valentina Shevchenko 0 13 of 21 61% 31 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Zhang Weili 0 10 of 30 33% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Valentina Shevchenko 0 4 of 6 66% 32 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:46
Zhang Weili 0 5 of 17 29% 22 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 41 of 68 60% 21 of 44 14 of 17 6 of 7 27 of 47 8 of 14 6 of 7
Zhang Weili 32 of 98 32% 9 of 59 13 of 26 10 of 13 25 of 90 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 8 of 13 61% 4 of 8 2 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 8 2 of 5 0 of 0
Zhang Weili 7 of 17 41% 4 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 2 5 of 14 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 9 of 10 90% 6 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 4
Zhang Weili 1 of 8 12% 0 of 4 0 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Valentina Shevchenko 7 of 18 38% 5 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 13 1 of 3 1 of 2
Zhang Weili 9 of 26 34% 1 of 15 4 of 7 4 of 4 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Valentina Shevchenko 13 of 21 61% 5 of 11 6 of 7 2 of 3 11 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0
Zhang Weili 10 of 30 33% 3 of 17 4 of 9 3 of 4 9 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Valentina Shevchenko 4 of 6 66% 1 of 3 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 2 1 of 1
Zhang Weili 5 of 17 29% 1 of 11 3 of 4 1 of 2 2 of 14 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo leans towards Zhang Weili, citing her superior wrestling and athleticism. He believes Weili's clean double-leg takedowns will be effective against Valentina Shevchenko, who relies on striking to set up takedowns. He acknowledges Shevchenko's experience and durability but thinks Weili's speed and wrestling will be the difference.

"I am going to slightly lean way Lee here. I think the wrestling is going to be the difference."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady leans Valentina Shevchenko, citing her size advantage and natural weight class. He notes Shevchenko's wrestling ability, having taken down Manon Fiorot, and believes she can get takedowns on Zhang Weili, who was taken down multiple times by Rose Namajunas. However, he acknowledges Zhang's physical strength and says it wouldn't shock him if Zhang gets top position. Brady is not betting on this fight and predicts a decision win for Shevchenko.

"I'm going to lean Valentina Shiftenko ever so slightly. I think it's a decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Cody picks Valentina due to her size, experience, and well-rounded skills. He notes that she is an elite kickboxer and wrestler, and that her trilogy with Grasso was a blip. He highlights that Zhang has had takedown defense issues in the past, and that Valentina consistently scores takedowns. He believes Valentina's size and strength will be key, and that she will win by decision.

Valentina Shevchenko by decision
"Valentina Shevchenko by decision play for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Connor picks Shevchenko but is hesitant, calling it a coin flip. He argues that Shevchenko's simple, patient style and mental stamina will frustrate Zhang, who struggles with distance and initiating exchanges. He notes that Zhang's wrestling might be neutralized by Shevchenko's clinch and top control, and that Zhang has been vulnerable when taken down.

Odds: Shevchenko opened +120, now -135; Zhang opened -140, now +115.
"I'm going to take Shevchenko, but I'm fascinated by the fight too. It genuinely feels like a coin flip to me."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel respects Shevchenko's technical striking and well-rounded game, but sees Zhang as the fighter making rapid improvements, especially in wrestling. He notes that Zhang has outgrappled elite wrestlers like Carla Esparza and Tatiana Suarez, while Shevchenko hasn't shown the same evolution. He also likes the dog odds on Zhang and believes she can become a double champ.

"I'm actually going to pick Jean Lee to come out here, make history, become another double champ, and bring another belt back to China."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Lucrative James picks Valentina Shevchenko to win, stating she is the greatest women's fighter of all time. He believes her wrestling and grappling are superior to Zhang's, and she can outskill her on the feet. He notes both fighters have losses due to grappling, but trusts Shevchenko's takedown accuracy and experience against tougher opponents. He expects Shevchenko to control the fight and win a decision or possibly a late submission.

"My prediction is going to be fairly short and sweet here, boys. It's going to be Valentina Chevchenko to get the win and go down as the greatest women's fighter that we have ever seen in MMA."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Shevchenko's size and overall MMA advantages muzzle Zhang's style. She mixes martial arts well, sets up takedowns behind strikes, and wins on the scorecards.

"I think that Chevchenko is the side here. Look for her size and overall MMA advantages to help her really muzzle that uh style of Jeang. ... I expect her to do it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Valentina's size advantage and superior wrestling. He notes that both fighters are similar in age but that Valentina is the bigger fighter and has a better takedown ratio. He thinks the fight will come down to grappling and top position, and that Valentina will win those exchanges. He also mentions that Valentina is more technical on the feet.

"give me the bigger bigger fighter with frankly a better, you know, takedown to taken down uh ratio."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The Guru picks Zhang Weili to win by split decision. He believes Zhang is a better fighter than Alexa Grasso and Manon Fiorot, who gave Shevchenko close fights. He notes Shevchenko's recent performances have been less dominant, and Zhang's grappling and striking should be competitive. The Guru also suggests promotional favoritism towards the Chinese market could influence a close decision.

"I'm gonna go Jang Lee. Lighter woman's skill. Um I think she's better than Alexa Carraso and I think that's what this is going to come down to."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Zane also picks Shevchenko hesitantly, emphasizing that Zhang's game plan may not work against Shevchenko's patience. He notes that Zhang has become a punch-and-clutch fighter but still struggles with range, and Shevchenko will force her to initiate. He sees Shevchenko's ability to maintain a low-risk fight as key.

Same odds commentary.
"I'm going to pick Shevchenko just because I think because Weilijang struggles so much with that distance, that if her opponent is well attuned to taking advantage of that fact, they can take her down."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 0 53 of 87 60% 232 of 299 1 of 3 33% 1 0 10:54
Tatiana Suarez 0 12 of 36 33% 63 of 95 1 of 15 6% 0 0 5:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 1 of 2 50% 31 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:09
Tatiana Suarez 0 0 of 2 0% 23 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:08
2 Zhang Weili 0 10 of 17 58% 52 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:19
Tatiana Suarez 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 6 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:27
3 Zhang Weili 0 19 of 42 45% 33 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Tatiana Suarez 0 8 of 21 38% 9 of 22 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:44
4 Zhang Weili 0 7 of 7 100% 53 of 60 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:27
Tatiana Suarez 0 3 of 5 60% 21 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Zhang Weili 0 16 of 19 84% 63 of 75 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:53
Tatiana Suarez 0 1 of 6 16% 7 of 14 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 53 of 87 60% 32 of 56 16 of 21 5 of 10 29 of 62 11 of 11 13 of 14
Tatiana Suarez 12 of 36 33% 1 of 16 2 of 6 9 of 14 10 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tatiana Suarez 0 of 2 0% 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Zhang Weili 10 of 17 58% 7 of 10 2 of 4 1 of 3 4 of 11 1 of 1 5 of 5
Tatiana Suarez 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Zhang Weili 19 of 42 45% 11 of 28 7 of 10 1 of 4 16 of 39 3 of 3 0 of 0
Tatiana Suarez 8 of 21 38% 0 of 7 2 of 5 6 of 9 6 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0
4 Zhang Weili 7 of 7 100% 5 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 3
Tatiana Suarez 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Zhang Weili 16 of 19 84% 9 of 12 6 of 6 1 of 1 4 of 6 7 of 7 5 of 6
Tatiana Suarez 1 of 6 16% 0 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Big Brady picks Tatiana Suarez, believing her grappling will be a level above Zhang Weili's. He notes that Zhang has been taken down easily by lesser grapplers like Yan Xiaonan and Rose Namajunas. He is concerned about Suarez's cardio, as she has never gone 25 minutes, but thinks she will get a submission in the second round. He predicts a second-round submission.

"I'm going to say Tatiana gets it done here I'm going to say she gets it done by second round submission"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Connor picks Zhang, citing her striking advantage and Suarez's questionable cardio. He thinks Zhang can use her kicks and movement to keep Suarez at range and tire her out. He notes that Suarez has never faced a five-round fight and faded in the third round against Nina Nunes. He also points out that Zhang has good takedown defense and can get back to her feet. However, he admits he could see Suarez winning if she gets top position early.

Same odds as Zane. Connor implies Zhang is a live underdog.
"I am going to go ahead and pick Zhang. I'd be happy to be surprised."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Feb 4, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Daniel Levi mentions the co-main event where Zhang Weili defends her belt against undefeated Tatiana Suarez. He notes that the fight is a dead pick at -110 each and asks the audience whether they think Zhang Weili retains or if Suarez becomes champion. He does not express a personal opinion or pick a winner.

"This fight is currently a dead picker minus 110 a piece do y'all think it's an still Jan way Lee or do y'all believe in destiny and fate that Tatiana sorus will come out there and become the new UFC …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Suarez's smothering wrestling and improving BJJ are expected to open up a submission opportunity. Zhang has the striking advantage but will struggle to stop Suarez's chain wrestling and strength. Zhang's wrestling has improved but not enough to overcome Suarez. The pick is for Suarez to find the neck and force a submission.

submission
"I have to lean with Suarez here with her smothering wrestling approach and her improving BJJ game which I think will eventually open up a submission opportunity for her"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Zane picks Suarez despite acknowledging Zhang's advantages in striking and cardio. He believes Suarez's wrestling will be the difference, as Zhang tends to tie up and Suarez is a better wrestler. He is concerned about Suarez's cardio and lack of five-round experience, but thinks she can get a submission or control on top. He notes that Zhang's best path is to jab and kick from range, but he doubts she will do that consistently.

Suarez opened at +137, currently -113; Zhang opened at -153, currently +101. Zane mentions that Zhang underdog odds might be a bettors' take because she is battle-tested.
"I'm going to stick with my pick, but the cardio aspect of it is worth being very, very suspicious."
WIN vs Yan Xiaonan
Decision (unanimous) (49–45, 49–45, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 0 106 of 157 67% 256 of 327 6 of 9 66% 2 0 12:44
Yan Xiaonan 1 43 of 85 50% 73 of 116 3 of 3 100% 0 1 2:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 17 of 30 56% 20 of 33 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:04
Yan Xiaonan 0 7 of 23 30% 7 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
2 Zhang Weili 0 54 of 59 91% 66 of 71 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:51
Yan Xiaonan 0 4 of 13 30% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:10
3 Zhang Weili 0 12 of 25 48% 39 of 56 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:17
Yan Xiaonan 1 26 of 34 76% 33 of 41 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:42
4 Zhang Weili 0 19 of 33 57% 59 of 86 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:42
Yan Xiaonan 0 4 of 10 40% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
5 Zhang Weili 0 4 of 10 40% 72 of 81 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:50
Yan Xiaonan 0 2 of 5 40% 16 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 106 of 157 67% 84 of 119 13 of 19 9 of 19 34 of 78 4 of 4 68 of 75
Yan Xiaonan 43 of 85 50% 21 of 60 4 of 6 18 of 19 24 of 64 3 of 4 16 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 17 of 30 56% 9 of 16 4 of 6 4 of 8 13 of 26 0 of 0 4 of 4
Yan Xiaonan 7 of 23 30% 6 of 20 0 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 19 1 of 2 1 of 2
2 Zhang Weili 54 of 59 91% 51 of 54 1 of 1 2 of 4 6 of 10 0 of 0 48 of 49
Yan Xiaonan 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Zhang Weili 12 of 25 48% 4 of 14 5 of 6 3 of 5 8 of 21 4 of 4 0 of 0
Yan Xiaonan 26 of 34 76% 7 of 15 3 of 3 16 of 16 9 of 17 2 of 2 15 of 15
4 Zhang Weili 19 of 33 57% 16 of 26 3 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 14 of 19
Yan Xiaonan 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Zhang Weili 4 of 10 40% 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 3
Yan Xiaonan 2 of 5 40% 0 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo is most confident in Zhang Weili, calling her better in every aspect of MMA. He notes her dominant performance against Amanda Lemos and believes she will easily defeat Yan Xiaonan. He recommends using her as a parlay anchor.

Can be used as parlay anchor
"waye is better than her opponent in every single aspect of MMA wayy has to be the pick and you could definitely use her as a parlay anchor"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Cody sees a clear path for Zhang Weili via wrestling. He notes Yan Xiaonan has been taken down easily by Carla Esparza, Marina Rodriguez, and Mackenzie Dern, and has no get-up game. In contrast, Zhang Weili has excellent grappling, taking down Rose Namajunas five times and Joanna Jedrzejczyk three times. Cody believes Zhang can win on the feet too, but the path of least resistance is takedowns and ground control. He expects Zhang to grind Yan down and possibly secure a rear-naked choke or TKO.

"I think Zang L gets the job done and probably looks good doing it."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel Vreeland picks Zhang Weili, stating that Yan Xiaonan's path to victory is unclear. He notes that Weili is always balanced and in the right position, and that she can match volume. He also mentions that Weili beat Yan J at her own game, and that she has a huge grappling advantage if she chooses to use it.

"I gotta go with wayy Jang uh you know like the the problem with this one is the same thing with the problem with Max Holloway right when you're drawing up the paths to victory for Yan shaan what are …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Daniel Vreeland picks Yan Xiaonan as a massive underdog, citing his history of betting on her in every UFC fight and her value at plus odds. He acknowledges Zhang Weili's grappling advantage but believes Yan's improved takedown defense and striking can keep the fight standing, where she has the edge. He notes Yan's survival against McKenzie Dern as evidence of her improved ground game.

"I've literally bet her in every single UFC fight she's had so why would I stop now at plus 400 in her title fight?"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Jeff Fox picks Zhang Weili, agreeing with Vreeland. He notes that Weili is better everywhere in this fight, and that she will put on a one-sided beating. He also mentions that if she chose to grapple, she could finish the fight.

"I agree with all that and if she chose to Grapple she could grapple and finish Fantage there y huge advantage on the ground so yeah Jiang is the better everywhere in this fight"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He mentions it as the all-Chinese women's title fight but does not give a prediction. He only discusses it in the context of the card's strength.

"Weili versus Yan Xiaonan the all Chinese women's title fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Zhang Weili

Weili should put together a better body of work with a mixture of takedowns and striking damage to retain her title and win on the scorecards. However, -500 is not accurate as Yan Xiaonan is much livelier than the underdog price indicates and will provide resistance.

decision, odds comment: -500 not accurate
"I don't think minus 500 is accurate here as I do think that Yan xan should be uh providing enough resistance to cause wey Jang some issues"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Paul sees this as a dogger pass situation, noting that women's strawweight fights are often close and go the distance. He acknowledges Zhang Weili should be the favorite but thinks the 4-to-1 price is too wide. Paul mentions Yan Xiaonan's path to victory is a first-round knockout, pointing out that Zhang has been knocked out before (by Rose Namajunas head kick) and that Yan just knocked out Jessica Andrade in the first round. He's tempted by the +385 underdog and the 30-to-1 round one prop.

Yan Xiaonan round 1 knockout at 30-to-1 odds mentioned as a degenerate bet
"I feel like it's probably relatively competitive and probably does go some rounds... yan round one 30 to1 is out on the market... I'll probably degen a little bit into that."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili to win by decision, dominating Yan Xiaonan. He praises Zhang's improvement and her performance against Amanda Lemos. He sees no path to victory for Yan and expects Zhang to use her grappling and striking to control the fight.

"I'm going with Jiang way Le by decision."
WIN vs Amanda Lemos
Decision (unanimous) (50–43, 50–44, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 1 163 of 217 75% 296 of 358 6 of 7 85% 0 0 16:07
Amanda Lemos 0 24 of 63 38% 29 of 68 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 44 of 55 80% 74 of 90 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:33
Amanda Lemos 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Zhang Weili 0 16 of 20 80% 49 of 54 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:47
Amanda Lemos 0 4 of 10 40% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Zhang Weili 0 20 of 29 68% 31 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:58
Amanda Lemos 0 5 of 12 41% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
4 Zhang Weili 0 28 of 45 62% 28 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Amanda Lemos 0 13 of 37 35% 13 of 37 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:07
5 Zhang Weili 1 55 of 68 80% 114 of 129 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:05
Amanda Lemos 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 163 of 217 75% 106 of 150 37 of 42 20 of 25 50 of 77 17 of 18 96 of 122
Amanda Lemos 24 of 63 38% 19 of 57 3 of 4 2 of 2 23 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 44 of 55 80% 36 of 47 6 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0 41 of 52
Amanda Lemos 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Zhang Weili 16 of 20 80% 10 of 13 6 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 8 4 of 4 7 of 8
Amanda Lemos 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Zhang Weili 20 of 29 68% 11 of 19 5 of 6 4 of 4 8 of 14 8 of 9 4 of 6
Amanda Lemos 5 of 12 41% 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Zhang Weili 28 of 45 62% 7 of 17 9 of 12 12 of 16 26 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 13 of 37 35% 11 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Zhang Weili 55 of 68 80% 42 of 54 11 of 12 2 of 2 8 of 9 3 of 3 44 of 56
Amanda Lemos 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo is very confident in Zhang Weili, believing she is head and shoulders above the division. He notes her improved wrestling and jiu-jitsu, impressive volume and cardio, and power. While Amanda Lemos has knockout power and good takedown defense, he thinks Weili can win everywhere and will keep the belt. He has her in a parlay with Marlon Vera.

Parlay with Marlon Vera
"Wei Li Zhang is the pick one of the more confident picks and I have her in that parlay with Cheeto... I think she's going to get it done I think she's going to keep the belt."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by third-round knockout, acknowledging Lemos is dangerous early. He notes Lemos has power and can finish early, but her cardio fades after the first round. Zhang is improving and can wrestle, and Brady expects her to weather the early storm and take over in the later rounds.

win by KO, round 3
"I like Zhang Whaley here to win this fight I'll say third round knockout for Zhang Wei Lee"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Cody views Zhang as a complete fighter with high-level striking, wrestling, and cardio, while Lemos has not faced top competition and struggled against Angela Hill. He expects Zhang to dominate and likely win by decision, though he acknowledges women's MMA can be unpredictable. He leans towards the fight going the distance.

over 3.5 rounds at +170; fight time over 15.5 minutes
"I think the champion Zang Yale goes out and does what she does best and that's just dominate I mean she's pretty much I always calls uh I don't always call but some Fighters are just generalists like they're generally …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili, believing she is one of the best athletes in the UFC and has shown tremendous improvement, especially in grappling after training with Henry Cejudo. He notes that Lemos is dangerous early with heavy hands and a guillotine, but her cardio fades after round two due to weight cuts. Levi expects Zhang to take the fight to the ground and possibly finish via submission or ground and pound. He is confident but acknowledges that the early stand-up exchanges will be a sweat for backers at -330.

Zhang by submission or ground and pound; -330 price is high but Zhang should get it done
"I think Zhang Wally is going to get her to the ground and finish her via submission or grounding pound"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Lucrative James picks Amanda Lemos as a value underdog, believing she hits like a truck and has a good chance of knocking out Zhang Weili. He acknowledges Zhang has more ways to win and better cardio, but at plus 250 he sees it as an easy system play. He advises against being greedy and sticking to the moneyline.

moneyline at plus 250
"Amanda Lemos knocks out Wei Lee Jiang and she becomes the new strawweight champion"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Zhang is well-rounded with power striking and strong wrestling. Lemos fades late and has been submitted before. Zhang will mix in takedowns and wear on Lemos, eventually finding a finish in the later rounds. The inside distance prop and under 3.5/4.5 rounds are good options.

Zhang wins inside distance, under 3.5 rounds, under 4.5 rounds
"I'm going to take Wiley Zhang I think she wins this fight inside the distance I'm going to be targeting that specific prop in the spot as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili over Amanda Lemos. He notes Lemos' age (36) and past losses to Jessica Andrade and Angela Hill. He believes Zhang's athleticism, speed, power, and improved grappling will be too much. He cites Zhang's dominant grappling performances against Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Carla Esparza. He expects Zhang to win, possibly by submission or TKO.

"I'm going with Zhang Whaley over Amanda Lemos"
WIN vs Carla Esparza
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:05 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 0 6 of 32 18% 19 of 50 1 of 4 25% 0 1 0:55
Carla Esparza 0 37 of 78 47% 42 of 90 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 5 of 27 18% 18 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 1 0:53
Carla Esparza 0 33 of 65 50% 38 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:00
2 Zhang Weili 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Carla Esparza 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 6 of 32 18% 6 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 1
Carla Esparza 37 of 78 47% 20 of 58 8 of 9 9 of 11 24 of 63 0 of 0 13 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 5 of 27 18% 5 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 1
Carla Esparza 33 of 65 50% 19 of 48 6 of 7 8 of 10 20 of 50 0 of 0 13 of 15
2 Zhang Weili 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 4 of 13 30% 1 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo believes Weili is the more dangerous fighter with power and improved wrestling. He expects Esparza to shoot takedowns but thinks Weili's athleticism and preparation will allow her to defend and possibly out-grapple Esparza. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is not great and that Weili could even get takedowns of her own. He picks Weili to win and expects Esparza to lose the belt quickly.

"I expect Whaley to win this fight she's absolutely the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, expecting a brutal beatdown. He believes Esparza's wrestling won't be enough to control Zhang for 25 minutes, and that on the feet it's not close. He compares it to Esparza's loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where she couldn't get takedowns and got finished. He notes Zhang knocked out Joanna with a spinning back fist and looks like a killer.

Zhang Weili inside the distance; finish by TKO/corner stoppage/cut
"I think Zhang Whaley beats the crap out of Esparza I think Zhang Willy finishes as far as at some point in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Cody picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, specifically by TKO. He compares the fight to Esparza's first title loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where Esparza was pressured against the cage and ate shots until the ref stopped it. He notes that Zhang hits very hard and that Esparza needs a perfect fight to get takedowns without taking damage. Cody believes Zhang's power and pressure will lead to a stoppage, and he prefers the inside distance prop over the moneyline.

Inside the distance at -110; also considered TKO prop but recommends inside distance for safety
"I can probably will skip the money line at minus 335... inside the distance for Zhang Wei Lee is like a Peckham price right now so that's where my my money's gonna end up in the co-main event."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili to become a two-time champion, but he is hesitant due to the price (-350) and the danger of Carla Esparza's wrestling and top control. He acknowledges that Carla has a history of mauling opponents like Yan Xiaonan and making Rose Namajunas gun-shy. Levi believes Weili is more well-rounded, powerful, and athletic, and he predicts a finish. However, he warns that if Weili gets laid on, it could be a repeat of Carla's past upsets. He advises against betting Carla again after her big dog win over Rose, calling it a 'one-time well.'

Predicts a finish (KO/TKO or submission); odds mentioned: Weili -350, Esparza +290 at DraftKings
"I'm gonna go with Wiley Zhang to finish Carlos Esparza I mean that's what I kind of see happening"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The host believes Zhang will get an early knockout, likely in the first two rounds. He notes Esparza's grappling is a threat, especially if the fight goes long, but Zhang's power and improved grappling should be enough to finish early. He recommends Zhang inside the distance rather than the moneyline, expecting a KO or submission. He also notes the under 4.5 rounds at +100 as a good bet.

Zhang inside the distance, under 4.5 rounds (+100)
"I do think that Zhang inside the distance is probably the best bet in this matchup taking her to win by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Paul also picks Zhang Weili inside the distance, but specifically likes the TKO prop. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is suspect and that when she is forced to exchange, she tends to swell up. Paul highlights Zhang's pace, accuracy, and power, and believes that Esparza will not be able to get Zhang down. He warns against taking the KO prop specifically, recommending the inside distance prop instead to avoid being burned like he was with Poliana Viana.

Inside the distance at -110; also considered TKO prop but recommends inside distance
"I actually agree with you 100... I got that TKO prop... take the inside the distance it's like there's minus one tens out there the best I see is plus 120 on the chaos let's decal."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili, citing her improved grappling under Henry Cejudo and her ability to stuff takedowns and land knees and elbows. He notes Esparza's poor striking and her loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who stuffed 16 takedowns. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Weili dominating on the feet and stuffing all takedowns.

first round TKO
"you kind of have to go Zhang Wei Lee here"
KO (spinning backfist) R2 2:28 · UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · Jun 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 1 69 of 102 67% 94 of 130 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:51
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 43 of 85 50% 44 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 47 of 66 71% 72 of 94 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:39
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 22 of 39 56% 23 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Zhang Weili 1 22 of 36 61% 22 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 21 of 46 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 69 of 102 67% 52 of 80 12 of 15 5 of 7 29 of 59 5 of 5 35 of 38
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 43 of 85 50% 20 of 56 9 of 9 14 of 20 39 of 81 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 47 of 66 71% 41 of 58 2 of 3 4 of 5 8 of 24 4 of 4 35 of 38
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 22 of 39 56% 14 of 28 2 of 2 6 of 9 20 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Zhang Weili 22 of 36 61% 11 of 22 10 of 12 1 of 2 21 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 21 of 46 45% 6 of 28 7 of 7 8 of 11 19 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo picks Zhang Weili, citing her activity and improvements since the first fight. He acknowledges Joanna arguably won the first fight and has better wins, but believes the two-year layoff will hurt Joanna's timing. He notes Zhang has added wrestling and has been fighting top competition, while Joanna has been inactive.

"i think i'm still going to stick with way lee here though and i really do think the activeness makes a difference two years away is a very long time"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by decision, but is hesitant due to the close nature of their first fight and Joanna's two-year layoff. He notes that Zhang has power and has been more active, while Joanna relies on volume and movement. He expects a razor-close decision and is not confident in the judges.

"I'm going with Zhang Weili here I like she's been more active I like the power I think she's going to inflict the damage here but it's going to be a razor razor razor close fight."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Cody picks Zhang, believing the three-round fight favors her power and aggression. He notes Zhang's wrestling improvements with Henry Cejudo and thinks she can steal rounds with takedowns. He acknowledges Joanna's cardio but thinks Zhang's power will be decisive.

"three-round fight i think it's zhang wei lee... i think she's a rightful favorite"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Jun 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel Levi is on the fence for this fight. He acknowledges that the first fight was very close and that Joanna won the early rounds on the scorecards. He notes that Zhang has power and could land a big shot, but also that Joanna has better volume and defense. He mentions the layoff for Joanna could be a positive or negative, and that the fight being in Singapore might favor Zhang. He ultimately picks Zhang but says he has no idea and is not betting the fight.

fight goes the distance (mentioned by co-host as a good bet)
"you're going Joanna so I'm gonna go on the opposite side and take y lead but I mean like I ain't putting money on that I have no idea dude"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Weili has more power and her shots are more impactful. Joanna is coming off a long layoff and this is a three-round fight, which favors Weili's power. Joanna's output may not be enough to overcome the damage Weili lands. Weili also has a wrestling edge. I think Weili wins a close decision or late finish.

"I think the three-rounder more so favors while he's dying here because she can go out there and continue to throw her power shots."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joanna Jędrzejczyk

Paul takes Joanna as an underdog, citing her speed and volume. He thinks Joanna won two of the first three rounds in the first fight and that a three-round fight favors her. He acknowledges Zhang's power but believes Joanna's pace and experience can edge a decision.

Joanna by decision
"i'm taking a flyer i think on joannie and jay check... underdog number one joining energy check"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili to win by 29-28 decision. He argues that the three-round fight favors Zhang's power over Joanna's volume, and that Zhang has improved her grappling significantly, which she may mix in. He criticizes Joanna's two-year layoff and lack of dedication compared to Zhang's focused training. He expects Joanna to win the third round but too little too late. He notes that Zhang's power shots were more effective in their first fight.

"i'm going to side with zhang whaley winning this one i think she'll mix in the grappling on you anna early"
LOSS vs Rose Namajunas
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 0 86 of 168 51% 130 of 219 2 of 2 100% 0 1 7:00
Zhang Weili 0 83 of 173 47% 162 of 272 5 of 11 45% 0 0 3:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 0 20 of 36 55% 22 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zhang Weili 0 22 of 38 57% 36 of 56 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:08
2 Rose Namajunas 0 20 of 45 44% 22 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
Zhang Weili 0 16 of 39 41% 21 of 44 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:38
3 Rose Namajunas 0 14 of 38 36% 16 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Zhang Weili 0 25 of 51 49% 29 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:57
4 Rose Namajunas 0 14 of 23 60% 39 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:32
Zhang Weili 0 12 of 27 44% 32 of 50 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:54
5 Rose Namajunas 0 18 of 26 69% 31 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:55
Zhang Weili 0 8 of 18 44% 44 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 86 of 168 51% 57 of 131 12 of 17 17 of 20 60 of 136 6 of 6 20 of 26
Zhang Weili 83 of 173 47% 36 of 112 14 of 16 33 of 45 64 of 138 5 of 8 14 of 27
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 20 of 36 55% 11 of 25 3 of 5 6 of 6 17 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 0
Zhang Weili 22 of 38 57% 6 of 19 5 of 5 11 of 14 19 of 34 1 of 1 2 of 3
2 Rose Namajunas 20 of 45 44% 12 of 36 5 of 6 3 of 3 16 of 39 2 of 2 2 of 4
Zhang Weili 16 of 39 41% 6 of 28 4 of 5 6 of 6 13 of 36 1 of 1 2 of 2
3 Rose Namajunas 14 of 38 36% 11 of 33 0 of 0 3 of 5 13 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Zhang Weili 25 of 51 49% 13 of 33 4 of 4 8 of 14 19 of 43 3 of 4 3 of 4
4 Rose Namajunas 14 of 23 60% 9 of 16 3 of 5 2 of 2 10 of 18 0 of 0 4 of 5
Zhang Weili 12 of 27 44% 6 of 20 1 of 1 5 of 6 9 of 16 0 of 2 3 of 9
5 Rose Namajunas 18 of 26 69% 14 of 21 1 of 1 3 of 4 4 of 9 0 of 0 14 of 17
Zhang Weili 8 of 18 44% 5 of 12 0 of 1 3 of 5 4 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo picks Zhang Weili, believing she will make adjustments after the first fight. He thinks Weili will protect her chin, push the pace, and use her boxing to outwork Rose. He notes that Rose's win came from a single head kick and that there wasn't much to analyze from the short fight. He sees Weili's power and determination as key factors.

"i'm leaning towards wayley here honestly uh i think she'll make the adjustments she'll protect her chin i think she'll push the pace in this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by decision. He notes Zhang's power, volume, and cardio advantage, while Rose may slow down as the fight goes on. Brady thinks the first few rounds will be competitive, but Zhang's pressure and durability will wear on Rose. He also mentions Zhang's move to Fight Ready and her takedown potential, though Rose is dangerous on the ground. He expects Zhang to win down the stretch, possibly with a late finish.

win by decision
"give me zhang waili to win give me zhang wai lee to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody agrees with Paul, citing Rose's precision striking and ability to find openings. He notes Zhang's durability but believes Rose's technique and submission game give her the edge. He compares it to Rose's first win over Joanna and sees value in the champion as an underdog.

"i agree 100 with you my friend i don't think you can turn away from it i think it's a live dog shot"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Daniel Levi picks Rose Namajunas to defend her belt, expressing that the line is disrespectful to Rose at plus 105. He believes Rose is the better striker with more power and setups, and that Zhang Weili may be in denial about the first fight. Levi expects adjustments from Zhang, such as calf kicks, but thinks Rose's toughness and experience in rematches (3-0) will carry her. He notes that Rose is undefeated at Madison Square Garden and that Zhang's cardio advantage may be overstated.

plus 105 underdog
"why is rose nominees the underdog in this spot i mean ... i am going to pick her to defend her belt here against wylie"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Jacob picks Rose Namajunas, saying he will never bet against her again. He believes Weili's new focus on wrestling with Henry Cejudo could backfire, as Rose has excellent jiu-jitsu. He has a moneyline bet and a submission prop on Rose. He thinks Rose has the 'it factor' and thrives in big moments.

Submission win prop; Moneyline bet at -102 (2 units)
"i'm never gonna bet against rose again man i think she's burned me so many times... i put a money line bet on her like a two unit bet i even put so i put a submission win on her …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Zhang Weili

The host leans Zhang by decision, expecting her to use takedowns to sway judges in close rounds. He thinks the fight goes 25 minutes and likes the over 4.5 rounds at -125. He notes Zhang's new camp but limited time to adjust.

Over 4.5 rounds (-125), Zhang by decision (+250)
"i'm going to go wildly zhang i'm going to pick her by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul picks Rose as a live underdog, noting she knocked Zhang out in the first fight and is being undervalued. He questions Zhang's wrestling improvements with Cejudo and believes Rose's precision striking and submission threat are key. He sees the line as too easy to pass up.

"rose is the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The Guru picks Rose Namajunas, citing her youth, reach advantage, and grappling edge. He believes Zhang's mindset will be affected by her first KO loss and the crowd booing her. The Guru predicts a third-round rear-naked choke submission, noting Namajunas' ability to bounce back and her training with Trevor Wittman.

third round rear naked choke
"I'm going to go over eunis uh mainly because."
LOSS vs Rose Namajunas
KO (head kick) R1 1:18 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 0 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zhang Weili 1 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 0 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zhang Weili 1 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 7 of 11 63% 1 of 4 0 of 1 6 of 6 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhang Weili 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 7 of 11 63% 1 of 4 0 of 1 6 of 6 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhang Weili 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by fifth-round knockout. He believes Zhang's power and durability will be too much for Rose, who slowed down in her last fight. He notes Rose has only one KO win and lacks power, while Zhang has a 100% takedown defense and can go five rounds. He expects Zhang to break Rose down late.

Zhang Weili by KO in round 5
"gimme zhengwei lee for a fifth round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Cody leans toward Zhang, noting her pressure and power. He thinks Rose's technical striking could give her success early but doubts she can finish Zhang. He likes the over 4.5 rounds and mentions that Zhang's chin and cardio are advantages. He also notes that Rose's mental state could be a factor but ultimately sees Zhang retaining.

Over 4.5 rounds (-135)
"i think the over i like that quite a bit um i just think the more impactful strikes will be landed by willy zhang"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel picks Zhang Weili, citing her evolution and ability to pull away in later rounds. He notes Rose Namajunas has a history of breaking in the third round and beyond, while Weili has shown heart and durability. He expects Weili to possibly get a finish in the third, fourth, or fifth round.

finish in rounds 3-5
"i think wylie zhang is gonna pull away and possibly get this finish somewhere in that third fourth or fifth round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Zhang Weili

I think Zhang's power and pressure will be too much for Rose over five rounds. Rose tends to fade in later rounds, and Zhang has shown she can break opponents down. Zhang's leg kicks and combinations will slow Rose down. I like Zhang to finish late, so Zhang by KO at +255 and the round 4/5 props are appealing. The over 3.5 at -170 is also a good play as the fight should be competitive early.

Zhang by KO +255; Zhang round 4 +1400; Zhang round 5 +1900; over 3.5 -170
"i think that we see zhang go out there and finish rose"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Paul picks Zhang Weili, citing her durability, cast-iron mentality, and power. He acknowledges Rose's technical striking and footwork but believes Zhang's pressure and power will be decisive. He expects the fight to go the distance and likes the over 4.5 rounds. He notes Rose's mental fragility as a potential factor but thinks Zhang's chin and cardio will carry her.

Over 4.5 rounds (-135), fight goes distance
"i think the more impactful strikes will be landed by willy zhang and uh and it's and still at the end of the night yeah"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili by fourth-round TKO. He believes Zhang has more power, better cardio, and a higher pace in five-round fights. He thinks Rose slows down and that Zhang will chop at the legs, slow Rose's footwork, and finish her later. He also notes Zhang's grappling is good enough to avoid being exposed on the ground.

TKO in fourth round
"i'm going with whaley zhang"
Tecia Pennington - Fight History
LOSS vs Denise Gomes
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tecia Pennington 0 58 of 125 46% 73 of 144 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:32
Denise Gomes 0 53 of 138 38% 75 of 169 3 of 10 30% 0 1 3:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tecia Pennington 0 22 of 51 43% 34 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Denise Gomes 0 25 of 61 40% 26 of 62 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:10
2 Tecia Pennington 0 27 of 56 48% 29 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Denise Gomes 0 19 of 54 35% 22 of 58 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:06
3 Tecia Pennington 0 9 of 18 50% 10 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Denise Gomes 0 9 of 23 39% 27 of 49 2 of 3 66% 0 1 3:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tecia Pennington 58 of 125 46% 15 of 56 9 of 19 34 of 50 58 of 118 0 of 7 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 53 of 138 38% 19 of 86 15 of 29 19 of 23 48 of 129 2 of 5 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tecia Pennington 22 of 51 43% 7 of 21 4 of 12 11 of 18 22 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 25 of 61 40% 11 of 37 6 of 14 8 of 10 24 of 58 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Tecia Pennington 27 of 56 48% 6 of 27 4 of 5 17 of 24 27 of 52 0 of 4 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 19 of 54 35% 5 of 34 5 of 9 9 of 11 19 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Tecia Pennington 9 of 18 50% 2 of 8 1 of 2 6 of 8 9 of 16 0 of 2 0 of 0
Denise Gomes 9 of 23 39% 3 of 15 4 of 6 2 of 2 5 of 17 1 of 2 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Angelo is confident in Tecia Pennington as an underdog, calling her the best underdog on the card. He highlights her speed, durability, well-roundedness, and high fight IQ. He disagrees with the nearly 2-to-1 odds favoring Denise Gomes, arguing that Tecia is the more technical and experienced fighter. He plans to hammer a plus 3.5 bet on Tecia.

Tecia Pennington plus 3.5 rounds (spread bet)
"Anytime I see Tecia as a dog, I drool a little bit. ... I'm going to hammer a plus three and a half bet on Tecia Torres."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Denise Gomes

Big Brady favors Gomes due to her youth, power, and grappling upside, though he thinks the line might be a bit wide. He acknowledges Pennington is still fighting at a high level, citing her close decision against champion Mackenzie Dern. He expects a competitive fight that goes to a close decision, with Gomes landing the bigger shots and getting her hand raised.

decision
"I think Gomes lands the bigger shots, has the bigger moments, and gets her hand raised on the scorecards."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Cody picks Pennington as a dog, citing her experience and ability to outwork opponents. He thinks Gomes' wrestling is not good enough to keep Pennington down, and Pennington can win a close decision.

"I am going to take Tisha, man."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Lucrative James leans towards Denise Gomes, citing her youth, power, and physicality. He acknowledges Tecia Pennington's experience and volume but believes Gomes' finishing upside and strength will be decisive. He is not confident due to Pennington's high level and the price, but picks Gomes for the win.

"I have to pick Gomez. I don't know. Like, I feel like she's going to be like minus 250, - 300, maybe - 220. And it just doesn't intrigue me at those prices."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

The host is a bit unsure but leans toward Gomes due to her power, expecting her to land more significant strikes. Pennington may have volume and takedown attempts, but Gomes should nullify most of that and win on the scorecards.

"This one has me a little bit scratching my head, but I think that the power of Gomez should allow her to land more significant strikes against Pennington."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Paul picks Pennington, expecting a razor-thin split decision. He notes Pennington's takedown defense and striking volume, and thinks Gomes' wrestling is overrated.

"Tisha Pennington by split decision razor thin."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

The Guru picks Denise Gomes over Tecia Pennington. He believes Gomes will win via big moments and knockdowns, even if Pennington outlands her. He cites Pennington's tendency to lose close decisions due to lack of power, and Gomes's youth and size advantage. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Gomes.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to go with Denise Gomez getting this one done. Big moments."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tecia Pennington 0 63 of 127 49% 78 of 149 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:44
Luana Pinheiro 0 40 of 110 36% 46 of 118 5 of 10 50% 0 0 1:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tecia Pennington 0 26 of 61 42% 30 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luana Pinheiro 0 16 of 51 31% 19 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Tecia Pennington 0 18 of 38 47% 21 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Luana Pinheiro 0 20 of 39 51% 20 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Tecia Pennington 0 19 of 28 67% 27 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Luana Pinheiro 0 4 of 20 20% 7 of 24 5 of 6 83% 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tecia Pennington 63 of 127 49% 34 of 82 10 of 17 19 of 28 56 of 109 7 of 18 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 40 of 110 36% 23 of 85 5 of 9 12 of 16 33 of 95 7 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tecia Pennington 26 of 61 42% 18 of 42 2 of 6 6 of 13 21 of 51 5 of 10 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 16 of 51 31% 11 of 44 3 of 4 2 of 3 11 of 43 5 of 8 0 of 0
2 Tecia Pennington 18 of 38 47% 8 of 25 2 of 5 8 of 8 17 of 35 1 of 3 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 20 of 39 51% 11 of 26 2 of 5 7 of 8 18 of 35 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Tecia Pennington 19 of 28 67% 8 of 15 6 of 6 5 of 7 18 of 23 1 of 5 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 4 of 20 20% 1 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 17 0 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Angelo picks Tecia Pennington, stating she should win all day long. He notes that Pennington is good everywhere, with good boxing, solid grappling, and insane cardio. He acknowledges that the line at -400 is a little sketchy but believes she wins more often than not. He suggests the over might be more affordable and advises keeping an eye on the over line.

Angelo suggests the over might be more affordable than Pennington's moneyline and advises keeping an eye on the over line.
"This should be Tisha all day long. The line reflects that at four to one favorite here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington, noting that Luana Pinheiro fades after the 7.5-minute mark. He argues Pennington's losses are to elite fighters in close decisions, and a loss to Pinheiro would be her worst ever. He expects Pennington to win by decision.

Pennington by decision
"I got to go Pennington. You know, she's not somebody you typically want to lay minus 350 on, but I will pick her to win. And I'll pick her to win by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luana Pinheiro

The host is surprised Pennington is such a big favorite, believing Pinheiro matches her in physicality and may be the better striker in terms of landing significant damage. He sees Pinheiro as very live to pull off the upset and picks her to win by decision. However, the pick is not made with high confidence, as he acknowledges the line is surprising.

Pinheiro by decision
"I'm going to start with her to pull off the upset to to begin the card by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The Guru picks Tecia Pennington, calling her underrated and strong for the division. He believes she scrambles well and won't be outgrappled by Luana Pinheiro. He notes Pennington was robbed in past decisions against Mackenzie Dern and Tabatha Ricci, and thinks she is better overall. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.

Pennington to land more than 64.5 significant strikes (via Prize Picks)
"I think this is a pretty easy Tisha Pennington decision win."
WIN vs Carla Esparza
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tecia Pennington 0 39 of 123 31% 116 of 215 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:40
Carla Esparza 0 80 of 150 53% 94 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tecia Pennington 0 6 of 26 23% 77 of 105 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:52
Carla Esparza 0 13 of 38 34% 19 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tecia Pennington 0 12 of 43 27% 17 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:29
Carla Esparza 0 31 of 55 56% 32 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tecia Pennington 0 21 of 54 38% 22 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Carla Esparza 0 36 of 57 63% 43 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tecia Pennington 39 of 123 31% 30 of 112 4 of 6 5 of 5 33 of 110 0 of 3 6 of 10
Carla Esparza 80 of 150 53% 28 of 92 11 of 12 41 of 46 75 of 142 5 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tecia Pennington 6 of 26 23% 4 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 13 of 38 34% 8 of 32 3 of 3 2 of 3 10 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Tecia Pennington 12 of 43 27% 6 of 35 2 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 31 of 55 56% 14 of 37 5 of 5 12 of 13 31 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tecia Pennington 21 of 54 38% 20 of 53 0 of 0 1 of 1 15 of 44 0 of 0 6 of 10
Carla Esparza 36 of 57 63% 6 of 23 3 of 4 27 of 30 34 of 54 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Angelo picks Tecia Pennington, citing her recent good form, cardio, and ability to defend takedowns. He notes Carla Esparza is coming off a two-year layoff and may be rusty. He believes Pennington's pressure and volume will overwhelm Esparza as the fight goes on, especially at elevation where Pennington lives. He also suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.

Over 2.5 rounds is the safest bet on the card
"Tisha is the pick she's going to be the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington despite considering Esparza as a live dog. He cites major red flags for Esparza: a two-year layoff, a recent loss to Zhang Weili, this being her retirement fight, and having a child. He believes Pennington is the better striker and can stuff takedowns, and expects her to win a decision.

"I got to go Pennington here I'm I'm going to take Pennington to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Cody picks Esparza as a dog, citing her wrestling and takedown ability. He questions Pennington's takedown defense and thinks Esparza can control the fight on the ground. He expects a decision win for Esparza.

"I will take Carlos sparza"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Carla Esparza

Connor picks Esparza despite her long layoff and recent poor performances. He argues that Esparza's wrestling is likely to give her early success, and Pennington struggles to press her striking advantage. He notes that Pennington is a young veteran who never turned into a veteran veteran, and Esparza is tough to beat.

"I'm going to go with Carla Esparza too. I know it's her retirement fight, but she's really, really tough to beat."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Daniel Vreeland picks Tecia Pennington, citing her volume striking and Esparza's potential decline. He notes that Esparza is coming off a pregnancy and has announced this as her retirement fight, which often leads to poor performances. Vreeland believes if Pennington can stuff takedowns, her volume will be too much for Esparza, and he expects a decision win.

"I'mma go with uh Tia Tores here to come out here and win a decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The host believes Tecia Pennington has improved significantly since her loss to Carla Esparza nearly 10 years ago. He notes that both women are now mothers, but Pennington has less ring rust as she fought earlier this year. He expects Pennington to have a better overall game and win on the scorecards with a damage-based approach.

"I believe Pennington is very much improved since that matchup and given that both these women are now moms most recently Carla sparza I do believe that will see Pennington a little bit better in terms of being in the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Paul leans toward Esparza, noting her wrestling and the value at plus 150. He thinks Pennington's takedown defense is suspect and that Esparza can grind out a decision. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"it's a total dog or pass situation for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The MMA Guru initially leans toward Carla Esparza but switches to Tecia Pennington after visualizing the matchup. He notes Pennington is faster, more explosive, and has better wrestling and scrambles. He also mentions Pennington's recent split decision with Tabatha Ricci and win over Angela Hill, while Esparza's speed is lacking. He expresses regret and uncertainty, calling it a tough pick.

"I'm going to go with Tisha Pennington here over Carla espara you guys God I might regret that but I'll go with that"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Carla Esparza

Zane also picks Esparza, though he admits he came into the discussion feeling down on her. He notes that Esparza's wrestling should give her an early round, and Pennington's inability to press her striking advantage makes it likely Esparza wins a decision. He acknowledges the retirement factor but thinks Esparza's scrappiness will carry her.

"I guess Esparza because she's probably going to win around."
LOSS vs Tabatha Ricci
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tabatha Ricci 0 54 of 143 37% 94 of 186 1 of 10 10% 0 0 5:15
Tecia Pennington 0 80 of 219 36% 92 of 231 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tabatha Ricci 0 25 of 76 32% 26 of 77 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:07
Tecia Pennington 0 42 of 107 39% 47 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tabatha Ricci 0 10 of 27 37% 32 of 50 0 of 5 0% 0 0 3:01
Tecia Pennington 0 15 of 47 31% 21 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tabatha Ricci 0 19 of 40 47% 36 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:07
Tecia Pennington 0 23 of 65 35% 24 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tabatha Ricci 54 of 143 37% 32 of 105 9 of 19 13 of 19 48 of 135 6 of 8 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 80 of 219 36% 64 of 194 6 of 14 10 of 11 70 of 193 10 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tabatha Ricci 25 of 76 32% 12 of 52 5 of 11 8 of 13 23 of 72 2 of 4 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 42 of 107 39% 32 of 93 4 of 8 6 of 6 36 of 94 6 of 13 0 of 0
2 Tabatha Ricci 10 of 27 37% 7 of 22 1 of 2 2 of 3 10 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 15 of 47 31% 11 of 41 0 of 1 4 of 5 13 of 39 2 of 8 0 of 0
3 Tabatha Ricci 19 of 40 47% 13 of 31 3 of 6 3 of 3 15 of 36 4 of 4 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 23 of 65 35% 21 of 60 2 of 5 0 of 0 21 of 60 2 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Angelo picks Tabatha Ricci because he doubts Tecia Pennington will be the same fighter after having a baby and a two-year layoff. He notes Ricci's relentless takedowns and top pressure, and that she has beaten good grapplers. He acknowledges Pennington's well-rounded skills but thinks the layoff and motherhood are too big a question mark.

"I got to go with thei here she's a very tiny slight favorite"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington (Torres) for the upset, despite acknowledging red flags like her two-year layoff after having a baby. He believes Torres has the better striking and volume, and that even if Ricci takes her down, Torres has a good get-up game and is physically strong. He notes Ricci's path to victory is getting takedowns, but she failed to do so in losses to Fiorot and Lupi. He expects the fight to primarily take place standing, favoring Torres.

"I like Torres to win um there's a ton of red flags on her side I'm fully aware of that um but as far as a pick goes because I got to make a pick I'm taking Torres for the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Cody picks Pennington but is leaning, not confident. He notes that Pennington (formerly Torres) has a history of high volume and has fought the best, but she is coming off a layoff and a loss. He thinks her volume and takedown defense will be key, and she can outwork Ricci on the feet. However, he acknowledges it's a coin flip and wishes for better plus money.

"I wish I had better plus money on TSH t i really wish I do but slight plus money I think it's plus 110"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Daniel Vreeland picks Tabatha Ricci, but hesitantly. He notes that Tecia Pennington is the better fighter on her best day, but she is coming off a pregnancy, which often leads to a drop in performance. He also questions Ricci's level but thinks the pregnancy factor gives Ricci the edge. He acknowledges it could go either way.

"I'm G pick Tabitha because she's not the one coming off a baby she is the one with a little momentum but it would not surprise me if Tisha won this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The host picks Pennington due to her takedown defense and striking speed, which should keep the fight upright and cause Ricci problems. He notes the long layoff after childbirth as a concern but thinks the stylistic matchup favors her. He would only bet if the line moves to +150, indicating a lean rather than a confident play.

Would only bet if line reaches +150 range
"I'm going to go with Pennington here Pennington by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Paul picks Pennington, citing her volume and experience. He notes that Ricci's striking is stiff and she relies on takedowns, but Pennington has good takedown defense. Paul thinks Pennington can outwork Ricci in a competitive decision. However, he is not confident and calls it a coin flip.

"Pennington will be the pick but it's a coin flip bro"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Tecia Pennington (formerly Torres) as an underdog over Tabatha Ricci. He criticizes Ricci's standup as 'atrocious' and notes that Ricci only wins when she gets takedowns, which Pennington's wrestling background should prevent. He highlights Pennington's ability to avoid being held down and her superior striking, predicting a clear decision win.

"I'm going Tisha Pennington here as the underdog... 90% of people are picking Tabitha Rich here I think her stand Up's atrocious."
LOSS vs Mackenzie Dern
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mackenzie Dern 0 50 of 156 32% 58 of 164 0 of 5 0% 3 0 2:24
Tecia Pennington 0 76 of 124 61% 78 of 126 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mackenzie Dern 0 28 of 80 35% 28 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Tecia Pennington 0 35 of 62 56% 37 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
2 Mackenzie Dern 0 2 of 13 15% 8 of 19 0 of 0 --- 3 0 2:07
Tecia Pennington 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:06
3 Mackenzie Dern 0 20 of 63 31% 22 of 65 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:11
Tecia Pennington 0 39 of 57 68% 39 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mackenzie Dern 50 of 156 32% 42 of 147 6 of 7 2 of 2 46 of 152 3 of 3 1 of 1
Tecia Pennington 76 of 124 61% 19 of 61 25 of 30 32 of 33 75 of 122 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mackenzie Dern 28 of 80 35% 24 of 76 2 of 2 2 of 2 26 of 78 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 35 of 62 56% 6 of 31 15 of 17 14 of 14 35 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mackenzie Dern 2 of 13 15% 2 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
Tecia Pennington 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Mackenzie Dern 20 of 63 31% 16 of 58 4 of 5 0 of 0 19 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 39 of 57 68% 12 of 27 10 of 12 17 of 18 38 of 55 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Angelo confidently picks Tecia Torres (Pennington). He criticizes Dern's poor takedown accuracy (10%) and overconfidence in striking. He believes Torres' volume, boxing, and cardio will keep the fight standing, and even if it goes to the ground, Torres can avoid submissions. He plans to bet on Torres.

Moneyline bet on Tecia Torres.
"i like tisha torres to win i'm going to put a bet on t-shirt tours i'm very confident in tisha's ability to just have a ton of volume keep it on her feet and even if it does go to …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady picks Tecia Torres to win by decision. He sees the fight as a coin flip: if Dern gets it to the mat, she submits Torres; if Torres stuffs takedowns, she outstrikes Dern. Torres has better striking and has been focusing on strength and conditioning. Dern has poor takedown accuracy (10%). Brady has zero confidence and won't bet it.

"i'll take torres um zero confidence in it i'm not gonna be betting it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Cody leans Torres but is not fully confident. He acknowledges Dern's submission threat but thinks Torres' speed and volume will be key. Cody notes Dern's takedown struggles and that Torres has been taken down before, but believes the big cage favors Torres. He considers Dern by submission at +250 as a possible path but thinks Torres wins by decision more often.

Dern by submission +250
"i think more often than not teacher taurus wins by decision which is at giraffe king sportsbook right now tours by decision plus 130"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Levi acknowledges Tecia Torres's volume and striking advantage, but believes Dern's elite jiu-jitsu is a step above the competition. He thinks Dern will eventually get a hold of Torres and take the fight to the mat, possibly finishing by submission. He is not betting this fight because Torres could avoid takedowns and win a decision, but he picks Dern.

Dern by submission (plus 250, mentioned as a possible prop)
"i just think that mckenzie durn is a step above the competition in that weight class at in grappling"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

I think Torres is the better fighter with superior speed, combinations, and takedown defense. Dern has poor takedown accuracy (3 of 28 in UFC) and Torres will keep the fight standing. Torres will get in and out with strikes and win a decision. I also like Torres by TKO at +600 as a sprinkle.

Torres by TKO +600 (sprinkle)
"I am going to go with the Tisha Torres side here I think she's the better fighter I think she'll be quicker on the feet better with the combinations... I'll take her to win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Paul likes Torres at even money, citing her far better striking, speed, and experience. He notes Dern's takedowns are a mess and that Torres has only lost to the best in the division. Paul thinks Torres boxes Dern up, staying in and out, and that Dern's only path is a submission, which is unlikely. He expects Torres to win by decision, which is plus money.

Torres by decision +130
"i like torrez at those odds for sure far more experienced far better striker"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Tecia Torres (Tecia Pennington) as an underdog, citing her wrestling and speed. He expects her to stuff takedowns and piece up Dern on the feet, leading to a corner stoppage in the second round. He notes Dern's poor striking and only recently starting hard sparring.

underdog pick, corner stoppage prediction in round 2
"i'm gonna go if tcha torres over mackenzie dern... she's a evens odds against her... i gotta go underdog here with tisha torres"
WIN vs Angela Hill
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tecia Pennington 0 144 of 298 48% 166 of 322 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:16
Angela Hill 0 96 of 188 51% 99 of 191 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tecia Pennington 0 43 of 94 45% 51 of 102 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Angela Hill 0 25 of 56 44% 25 of 56 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:57
2 Tecia Pennington 0 51 of 99 51% 55 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Angela Hill 0 30 of 64 46% 31 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:43
3 Tecia Pennington 0 50 of 105 47% 60 of 116 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:14
Angela Hill 0 41 of 68 60% 43 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tecia Pennington 144 of 298 48% 80 of 217 41 of 52 23 of 29 127 of 274 16 of 22 1 of 2
Angela Hill 96 of 188 51% 64 of 141 29 of 41 3 of 6 73 of 160 22 of 26 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tecia Pennington 43 of 94 45% 20 of 63 18 of 22 5 of 9 40 of 90 3 of 4 0 of 0
Angela Hill 25 of 56 44% 17 of 44 8 of 10 0 of 2 20 of 50 5 of 5 0 of 1
2 Tecia Pennington 51 of 99 51% 29 of 73 13 of 17 9 of 9 43 of 89 8 of 9 0 of 1
Angela Hill 30 of 64 46% 16 of 43 12 of 18 2 of 3 24 of 54 5 of 9 1 of 1
3 Tecia Pennington 50 of 105 47% 31 of 81 10 of 13 9 of 11 44 of 95 5 of 9 1 of 1
Angela Hill 41 of 68 60% 31 of 54 9 of 13 1 of 1 29 of 56 12 of 12 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Tecia Pennington

Angelo is very confident in Torres, citing her high volume, good grappling, and that she has only lost to champions. He notes that Hill has improved but still struggled against Ashley Yoder, while Torres is a much higher level. He mentions he bet Torres at -132 and expects her to win a decision, possibly mixing in grappling as she did in the first fight.

Bet Torres moneyline at -132
"Tasha Torres is legit... I think Tasha Torres has very good volume coming forward, super busy, this is a rematch she won it the first time... I just don't see her losing this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady thinks this rematch will look similar to the first fight, with Torres mixing in takedowns and controlling Hill on the ground. He notes Hill's takedown defense has improved but she was still taken down by Ashley Yoder. He predicts Torres will win a decision by using takedowns and clinch control.

"I'll take Tisha Torres to win by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Cody picks Torres, arguing she has looked like a different fighter in her last two outings with increased confidence and output. He believes Torres has the wrestling advantage and will mix in takedowns to secure a close decision. He notes Angela Hill is a tough gatekeeper but lacks power and strength.

Torres by decision +100
"i think tisha torres goes out there and gets the job done guess the victory i again it's going to be close i wouldn't fault you if you went for the underdog of this one but i think she's got …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Daniel Levi picks Tecia Pennington via decision, citing her better mindset, skill set, and ability to win rounds. He criticizes Angela Hill for not accepting responsibility for her losses and for accusing Pennington of steroid use without evidence. He believes Pennington is more realistic and has a win over Hill already. He expects a close fight but favors Pennington's consistency and judge-friendly style.

"I'm gonna go with Tecia via decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Hill has polished her game and should have better striking and movement. Torres will likely grapple, but Hill has improved takedown defense and should get back to her feet. The fight will likely be close and go to decision, but Hill is the underdog and has a good chance. However, trusting Texas judges is risky, so it's a pass for betting.

Hill by decision +180; over 2.5 rounds
"I like angela hill here um but again pass guys just just [ __ ] pass on this [ __ ] show."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Paul leans towards Torres, noting her recent confidence and improved output. He thinks Torres is the better athlete and has a more well-rounded game, but acknowledges the fight is close and could go either way. He mentions the over is heavily juiced and expects a decision.

Torres by decision +100
"i'll lean towards torres what about you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Tecia Torres over Angela Hill. He notes Torres' improved striking, especially her kicks, and her dominant win over Sam Hughes. He believes Torres' speed and output will outwork Hill, who is older (36). He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision for Torres.

"i'm gonna go with teisha torres here i actually really like tisha torres"
WIN vs Sam Hughes
TKO (doctor stoppage) R1 5:00 · UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · Dec 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tecia Pennington 0 52 of 103 50% 52 of 103 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Sam Hughes 0 20 of 53 37% 26 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tecia Pennington 0 52 of 103 50% 52 of 103 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Sam Hughes 0 20 of 53 37% 26 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tecia Pennington 52 of 103 50% 27 of 71 13 of 17 12 of 15 50 of 101 2 of 2 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 20 of 53 37% 9 of 33 2 of 3 9 of 17 19 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tecia Pennington 52 of 103 50% 27 of 71 13 of 17 12 of 15 50 of 101 2 of 2 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 20 of 53 37% 9 of 33 2 of 3 9 of 17 19 of 52 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady picks Tecia Torres (Pennington) to win by decision. He cites her massive speed and volume advantage, and notes that Hughes is a big step up in competition. He mentions Torres' recent win over Brianna Van Buren and her losses to top competition.

"i'm going to take torres to win here by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Daniel expects Tecia to roll, citing her recent impressive performance against Van Buren and her wins over top competition. He thinks Sam Hughes is taking a massive step up and will lose a decision.

decision loss for Hughes
"tisha should roll here i mean she looked she looked really good her last fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Dec 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill, despite her two recent losses (which he believes were actually wins). He cites Hill's reach advantage, natural size, and hunger to bounce back. He expects a close split decision. He acknowledges Tecia Torres is good but leans toward Hill.

split decision
"i'm gonna go with angela hill getting the job done by a close close i'd say split decision"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tecia Pennington 0 74 of 160 46% 111 of 199 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:09
Brianna Fortino 0 34 of 68 50% 37 of 71 2 of 7 28% 0 0 4:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tecia Pennington 0 12 of 29 41% 36 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:01
Brianna Fortino 0 9 of 11 81% 10 of 12 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:28
2 Tecia Pennington 0 28 of 65 43% 30 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Brianna Fortino 0 11 of 27 40% 12 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
3 Tecia Pennington 0 34 of 66 51% 45 of 77 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
Brianna Fortino 0 14 of 30 46% 15 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tecia Pennington 74 of 160 46% 42 of 127 21 of 22 11 of 11 55 of 136 17 of 21 2 of 3
Brianna Fortino 34 of 68 50% 9 of 40 21 of 22 4 of 6 18 of 51 16 of 17 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tecia Pennington 12 of 29 41% 6 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 20 7 of 9 0 of 0
Brianna Fortino 9 of 11 81% 1 of 3 8 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 3 7 of 8 0 of 0
2 Tecia Pennington 28 of 65 43% 17 of 54 7 of 7 4 of 4 24 of 59 4 of 6 0 of 0
Brianna Fortino 11 of 27 40% 3 of 16 6 of 7 2 of 4 7 of 23 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Tecia Pennington 34 of 66 51% 19 of 50 9 of 10 6 of 6 26 of 57 6 of 6 2 of 3
Brianna Fortino 14 of 30 46% 5 of 21 7 of 7 2 of 2 9 of 25 5 of 5 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Brianna Fortino

Big Brady picks Brianna Fortino (Van Buren) despite Tecia Pennington's superior competition, believing Fortino is better on the feet and can get takedowns. He thinks Fortino will land more strikes and win a decision. He notes that Pennington hasn't won in five fights and that Fortino's takedown ability will be key.

odds: Fortino minus 190, Pennington plus 165; pick by decision
"I'm gonna go Van Buren here closed decision you know maybe unanimous"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Brianna Fortino

Daniel Levi picks Brianna Van Buren, calling her a future top-10 fighter. He highlights her relentless pressure, wrestling, and ability to exploit Tecia Torres' weaknesses: poor takedown defense and declining confidence. Levi believes Van Buren will dominate with takedowns and ground control, leading to a clear decision or late finish.

"I like Brianna Van Buren here. I think that she does make a statement and defeats Tecia Torres, Shaq."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)

Torres has lost four in a row but to top competition. She is strong, athletic, and has great grappling. Van Buren is being pushed but Torres has the experience edge. Torres will get the win, though it's a hesitant pick.

"I think I'm gonna go with tecia Torres I don't know why I'm doing this but I am doing it"