Career Averages - Pedro Munhoz
Career Averages - Cody Garbrandt
Pedro Munhoz - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 109 of 206 | 52% | 110 of 208 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 95 of 327 | 29% | 95 of 327 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 30 of 51 | 58% | 30 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 26 of 72 | 36% | 26 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 41 of 90 | 45% | 42 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 22 of 109 | 20% | 22 of 109 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 38 of 65 | 58% | 38 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 47 of 146 | 32% | 47 of 146 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aiemann Zahabi | 109 of 206 | 52% | 98 of 188 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 109 of 204 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 95 of 327 | 29% | 82 of 304 | 7 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 94 of 324 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aiemann Zahabi | 30 of 51 | 58% | 24 of 43 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 26 of 72 | 36% | 23 of 65 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 25 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Aiemann Zahabi | 41 of 90 | 45% | 37 of 81 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 41 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 22 of 109 | 20% | 16 of 100 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 107 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Aiemann Zahabi | 38 of 65 | 58% | 37 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 38 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 47 of 146 | 32% | 43 of 139 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 47 of 146 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zahabi (-115), Munhoz (-105)
Round 1
Posting one win in each of the last four years, Tristar Gym’s Zahabi (11-2, 5-2 UFC) has slowly but surely figured things out and climbed the bantamweight ladder. He earns a top-15 adversary in Munhoz (20-9, 2 NC; 10-9, 2 NC UFC), who on the wrong end of his 30s plans on showing there are still levels to this game. Referee Jerin Valel will officiate the preliminary headliner, one that commences as the sportsmen clap hands. Munhoz awkwardly shifts his way forward, throwing Zahabi off with his unusual hopping non-rhythm. Zahabi cannot get a time on him, and he resorts to backing off and lifting his leg up preemptively expecting leg kicks to fly. No strike is thrown for the first 50 seconds until Munhoz says hello with a guard-piercing jab. Munhoz walks Zahabi down and jabs him in the face again, and his front kick does the same to the body. Zahabi lumbers forward with two looping hooks, and a third bounces off the guard. Zahabi pounds the body with a kick, and Munhoz jabs him back to the fence. Zahabi’s big swings are parried or met with jabs, as Munhoz throws straight strikes while keeping his guard up. Zahabi whips another kick to the liver, and he scoops a left hand over the top. Munhoz stays right in Zahabi’s face, reddening him with jabs and slipping counters. Zahabi gets hold of a right hook that Munhoz cannot dodge, but it does not irritate the Brazilian in the slightest. Munhoz sneaks a high kick up, and when he bends over to evade the counters, he ducks into a knee. Zahabi stabs his toes to the liver, and Munhoz’ jab-heavy approach does not falter. Munhoz follows a jab with a left hook, and he swats away a lunging Zahabi and his combo. Zahabi looks for another knee as Munhoz bends, but he does not set it up and instead tags Munhoz in the face with a pair of flush punches. Munhoz jabs and lands a right, and Zahabi works the body and head in response. Zahabi scores a left hook on an advancing Munhoz, and Munhoz throws a low kick and stuffs a takedown shot. Munhoz jabs and sets up a straight right hand and a sharp kick to the ribs. Zahabi keeps his guard up to defend an elbow, and he evades a looping right hand by a matter of inches. Munhoz jabs his way into range, and he is backed off by a pair of jabs from the Canadian. Zahabi gets a high kick up, and they trade hands until the time hits 5:00.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Round 2
Munhoz offers a glove touch that is accepted, and he follows it with a few jabs. Munhoz uses the jab to smack Zahabi in the face with a right hand, and Zahabi fires back with a head kick followed by a few punches. Munhoz walks into a knee as he is pressing the action fearlessly, and he does not let Zahabi land without firing back relentlessly. Munhoz opens up with five punches that largely bounce off the guard, and Zahabi works the body with a kick. Zahabi slings an elbow as Munhoz advances, and Munhoz’ jabs are now more frequently being followed with power punches. Munhoz eats a right hand and tries to give one back, and Zahab kicks him in the side again. Munhoz dips and strikes, and he absorbs an uppercut without concern. Munhoz scores a solid right hand that sends Zahabi staggering to the right for a second, but the Canadian steels himself and strikes Munhoz repeatedly with hard jabs. Munhoz is right there in his grill hitting him back, and these two are unloading on one another. Zahabi times a break with a heavy body kick, and the punch salvos of three or more fly from both sides. Zahabi eats a right hand so he can sit down on a clean right counter, and Munhoz smiles and walks him down to slug him back. Munhoz ducks to shoot for a takedown, swelling growing under his left eye, and he cannot ground the Tristar-trained competitor. Munhoz lands a low kick and is jabbed back, but he opens up with right hand into a takedown. Zahabi smoothly sprawls and fights behind his jab, dealing well with Munhoz’ constant pressure. Munhoz slams another leg kick home, opening up a few punches up top. Zahabi strafes to the side when Munhoz swarms him, and he jabs twice and takes a thudding right hand on the temple. Zahabi lands a left and a hooking right, and he stops a double-leg entry without issue and knees “The Young Punisher” in the gut. Zahabi sets up a few punches after the knee, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi
Round 3
Munhoz comes out firing in the last round, with both rounds somewhat close and potentially everything up for grabs in the last five-minute stanza. Munhoz plods forward throwing big hands, and Zahabi’s defense protects from most of it. Munhoz jabs to the body with a foot and up high with a fist, and he parries a counter to put two fists on the dome of his foe. Munhoz rolls with a punch, walks into a right hand and responds with a pair of punches. Zahabi gets a knee up the middle, and Munhoz sends him wobbling back with a couple heavy blows. The fighters continue to trade without fear, and Munhoz has the volume advantage but gets a cut opened up on the right side of his right eye. Zahabi’s jabs target that spot with impunity, and Munhoz completely ignores it to load up on volume punches. Zahabi’s jab is money, forcing Munhoz to wipe his eye. Zahabi shoots for a takedown, and Munhoz stuffs it and splits the guard with a trio of strikes. Zahabi dips to score a right and snaps the head back with a jab, but “The Young Punisher” is right in front of him putting hands on him. They jab at the same time, and Munhoz has three fists flying immediately after launching it. Zahabi’s guard stops the Brazilian from most of his strike getting through, and he stops a takedown with ease. Munhoz charges recklessly with lunging punches, and the counters from Zahabi further chew up Munhoz’ face. Munhoz gets caught with a right hand and hits his seat, and he jumps back up to put hands on jaw. Munhoz scores two right hands over the top, and he motions for Zahabi to swang and bang with him. There is a failed takedown as they trade leather, and Valel gets between them as time expires but they just want to hug it out.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)
The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Pedro Munhoz via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Aiemann Zahabi due to high fight IQ and a well-trained corner (brother Firas). He notes Pedro Munhoz is a volume striker with dangerous BJJ but negative striking differential. He thinks Zahabi's point-fighting style could work, but if he just sits on right hands, Munhoz will touch him up. He says over 2.5 rounds is probably safe but likely won't bet this fight.
Big Brady picks Pedro Munhoz to win by decision. He criticizes Zahabi's low output (3.43 significant strikes per minute) and boring style, while Munhoz is more active (5.32 per minute) and has fought tougher competition. Brady likes Munhoz's leg kicks, durability, and takedown defense. He notes that Zahabi does nothing in the cage and that Munhoz's experience against top fighters gives him the edge.
Cody picks Pedro Munhoz, citing his durability and higher level of competition. He notes that Munhoz has fought top bantamweights and has a BJJ black belt, though he rarely uses it. He believes Munhoz's aggression and pressure could overwhelm Zahabi, but acknowledges the fight is close and could go either way. He is wary of hometown judging but sides with the Brazilian.
Daniel Vreeland picks Pedro Munhoz, despite acknowledging his decline from a top-five ranking. He believes Munhoz's higher output, calf kicks, and durability (never knocked down) will be too much for Aiemann Zahabi. Vreeland notes that Zahabi is 36 and not a young prospect, and that Munhoz's experience and pace should earn him a close decision, though he admits a Canadian bias could affect judging.
Zahabi is on a Cinderella run with upset victories in his last four wins. He will out-strike and out-volume Munhoz en route to a decision victory.
Paul picks Aiemann Zahabi, arguing that Munhoz is older (38) and has slowed down, while Zahabi is fresher with less mileage. He notes Zahabi's reach advantage and precise striking, and believes he can keep Munhoz at range with his jab. He also mentions Zahabi's four-fight winning streak and momentum, and that Munhoz's aggressive style plays into Zahabi's counter-striking game.
The Guru picks Aiemann Zahabi over Pedro Munhoz, believing Munhoz is declining. He notes Zahabi's movement and strategy from the Firas Zahabi camp, and expects Zahabi to pick apart Munhoz's dipping, hook-swinging style. He predicts a close decision, possibly 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Phillips | 0 | 52 of 140 | 37% | 52 of 140 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 114 of 275 | 41% | 115 of 276 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyler Phillips | 0 | 19 of 54 | 35% | 19 of 54 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 55 of 120 | 45% | 56 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Kyler Phillips | 0 | 20 of 42 | 47% | 20 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 32 of 75 | 42% | 32 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kyler Phillips | 0 | 13 of 44 | 29% | 13 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 27 of 80 | 33% | 27 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Phillips | 52 of 140 | 37% | 23 of 99 | 17 of 24 | 12 of 17 | 48 of 134 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 114 of 275 | 41% | 74 of 224 | 17 of 24 | 23 of 27 | 111 of 269 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyler Phillips | 19 of 54 | 35% | 11 of 44 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 17 of 50 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 55 of 120 | 45% | 41 of 104 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 52 of 114 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Kyler Phillips | 20 of 42 | 47% | 7 of 22 | 7 of 12 | 6 of 8 | 20 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 32 of 75 | 42% | 16 of 56 | 8 of 9 | 8 of 10 | 32 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kyler Phillips | 13 of 44 | 29% | 5 of 33 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 27 of 80 | 33% | 17 of 64 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 27 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Phillips (-238), Munhoz (+195)
Round 1
In the talent-rich no-nonsense bantamweight division, speed sells, and both Munhoz (20-8, 2 NC; 10-8, 2 NC UFC) and Phillips (11-2, 5-1 UFC) are buying. Nine years the elder, Munhoz has served as the more active man of the two over the last few years. Referee Keith Peterson is ready to keep up with these two talented competitors, whether they need 15 seconds or 15 minutes to get things done. The fighters touch ‘em up to begin, and Munhoz moves forward, only to dodge a low kick and a pair of jabs. Phillips reaches his foe with a second leg kick, and Munhoz leaps forward to grab the leg and take the fight down. Phillips spins with a wheel kick that draws audible gasps but does not connect, and he chains a few punches into it to keep Munhoz from crowding him. “The Young Punisher” gets inside to land a right hand, and Phillips scores back with his own offense. Munhoz intercepts a striking Phillips to tackle him to the mat. Munhoz leaps into the guard, but Phillips kicks him off and pushes off with a finger when getting to his feet. Peterson sees this and allows Munhoz to recover, and Munhoz only takes a few seconds before he is ready to go. The two bantamweights jab at one another, and Phillips whips a head kick after. Both men throw leg kicks, and Munhoz crowds him and lands punches that force Phillips to turn away and escape on the edge of the cage. Munhoz pushes out a front kick, and Phillips times a right hand over the top. The two measure one another in single strikes, and Phillips kicks low and buzzes the hair with a kick. Phillips keeps his long jab outstretched, and he leans back when Munhoz wings inaccurate but powerful punches at him. Phillips dodges and spins with a back kick, and he drives a knee on the chin that stings Munhoz. Phillips unloads with a barrage of punches and kicks, and he further tags Munhoz in his long series of strikes. Munhoz gathers himself and throws back, and he knees him in the face. Phillips jabs out his finger while rattling off a long combo, and he jams it into Munhoz’ eye. Phillips also cuts Munhoz, and it was a punch that cause it and not the poke. When they get back to it, Munhoz wipes his eye and engages in a brawl. Phillips sticks and moves, landing flush and getting shoved back with a front kick. Phillips nods at him and eats a left hook that cuts him on the cheek. The fast and furious round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Round 2
The cut on the eyelid of Munhoz is not sealed between rounds, and blood leaks from it to start off the round. Phillips sprints forward to attack, and Munhoz is right there to greet him with strikes including a pair of low kicks. Phillips has a one-two bounce off the guard, and he comes up short with a hook kick. Munhoz checks a low kick, and he dips down to rip a left to the body. Phillips kicks him back in the leg, and Munhoz is right there to chop him back. They both crack one another with left hooks, and Munhoz slips and scores a right. Phillips connects with a solid right hand, and Munhoz’ chin is made of sterner stuff. Phillips grazes the hair with a fast head kick, and he swats away a jabbing front kick. Phillips rifles off several jabs while Munhoz comes at him, and he evades the heavier of the strikes coming his way. They both go low with a kick, and Munhoz has his guard raised to block a standing elbow but it cannot defend against a body kick after it. Munhoz keeps his head movement on full display as he dodges and ducks vicious strikes like a spinning back fist, and he remains right close to Phillips. Phillips kicks him in the mouth, and Munhoz takes it cleanly and wades forward to throw back. Munhoz shoulder-rolls when a right hand comes down the pipe, and he parries a left hook. The two trade leg kicks, and Phillips hops forward and stomps the side with a kick. Phillips digs a left to the body and right to the head, and Munhoz does not bat an eye. Phillips chains punches together into a low kick, and he slides back before Munhoz can reach him. Munhoz scores a single body kick, but it is one-and-done while Phillips is largely more active. Phillips gets off a right and a left, and he leapfrogs Munhoz when Munhoz ducks down. Phillips spins with a wheel kick that tags Munhoz, and he stops a potential takedown from coming at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Round 3
Munhoz sprints out of his corner ready to engage, and he tosses out a glove touch before darting in to shoot for a takedown. Phillips staves it off and pops out several jabs, keeping him away from the right hand of the Brazilian. They both smack one another with leg kicks, and then aim body shots. Phillips lands a right to the body and a spinning back kick to the other side. Munhoz jabs his way in and misses with an overhand right, and Phillips jabs and paws at the damaged eye of his opponent. Phillips shimmies as he dodges, and he flicks out a front kick that lands on the chin. The two clinch up, but nothing comes of it as Phillips is out of range when he tries to reach a left hand on the break. Phillips strafes to the side and lands a right hand up top along with a body kick. Munhoz scores a low kick, but Phillips is right in his face with punches and his own leg kick. Munhoz snaps the head back with a jab, and he absorbs a clean leg kick in response. Phillips looks to counter a leg kick with a right hand over the top, and he bounces and moves to flick out jabs. Munhoz times a right hand while Phillips is bouncing around, and Phillips has to reset. Phillips slaps a leg kick in the outer lead leg, and he steps in with a left hook and whips a head kick up on the other side. Munhoz does not bat an eye, and he spins with a back kick aimed at Phillips’ head but cannot reach him. Munhoz prods out a front kick, only to get driven back by punches and a head kick. Phillips kicks low to stop Munhoz from getting to him. It temporarily disrupts Munhoz’ constant forward movement, but Munhoz is quick to get back to racing forward. Phillips has a head kick bounce off the guard, and he clips Munhoz with an overhand right. “The Matrix” styles on his opponent with punches that leads to a spinning kick, and the fight ends as Phillips attempts and lands a back flip to celebrate.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Phillips (30-27 Phillips)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Phillips (30-27 Phillips)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Phillips (30-27 Phillips)
The Official Result
Kyler Phillips def. Pedro Munhoz via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo leans Kyler Phillips due to his youth, cardio, and well-rounded game, but acknowledges Pedro Munhoz is the better fighter on paper. He notes Munhoz is 37 and has only one win in five fights, while Phillips is younger and has momentum. He won't bet because the odds on Phillips are too wide for an untested fighter.
Big Brady picks Kyler Phillips to win by decision. He likes Phillips' movement, volume, and sneaky power, and notes that Munhoz has been outlanded in recent fights. He expects Phillips to win the first two rounds and possibly drop the third, winning 29-28. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Phillips under 2.5 takedowns.
Cody acknowledges Phillips' speed and athleticism but worries about his cardio and durability. He thinks Phillips can win the first two rounds with movement and volume, but Munhoz's durability and pressure could lead to a late finish or decision for Munhoz.
Daniel leans towards Phillips due to youth, speed, and explosiveness. He notes Phillips goes balls to the wall and may fatigue, but Munhoz has also slowed down in later rounds recently. Daniel is not interested at the price but picks Phillips to win.
Phillips has a speed, footwork, and technical striking advantage that should allow him to dance around at range and touch up Munhoz. He tends to fade in the third round due to cardio issues, but he should win the first two rounds clearly and survive the third. Munhoz is a tough veteran with power and forward pressure, but his short reach and tendency to get outpointed by technical strikers is a concern. Phillips should put on a similar performance to his win over Barcelos, using movement and output to win a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting Phillips' reach and speed advantages. He thinks Phillips can win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, but acknowledges the risk of Munhoz's leg kicks and pressure.
The MMA Guru picks Pedro Munhoz, arguing that Kyler Phillips' flashy striking style relies on hurting opponents, but Munhoz has never been dropped or wobbled. He notes Munhoz's low kicks and durability, and that even Sean O'Malley couldn't do much to Munhoz. He predicts Munhoz will win a decision, possibly 29-28, or even a draw if Phillips wins early rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 141 of 251 | 56% | 141 of 251 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 113 of 246 | 45% | 113 of 246 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 39 of 66 | 59% | 39 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 38 of 71 | 53% | 38 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 49 of 84 | 58% | 49 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 45 of 91 | 49% | 45 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 53 of 101 | 52% | 53 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 30 of 84 | 35% | 30 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera | 141 of 251 | 56% | 109 of 212 | 9 of 14 | 23 of 25 | 138 of 246 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 113 of 246 | 45% | 53 of 177 | 20 of 28 | 40 of 41 | 111 of 244 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marlon Vera | 39 of 66 | 59% | 27 of 51 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 10 | 38 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 38 of 71 | 53% | 14 of 44 | 8 of 11 | 16 of 16 | 38 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marlon Vera | 49 of 84 | 58% | 37 of 71 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 10 | 49 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 45 of 91 | 49% | 23 of 64 | 7 of 11 | 15 of 16 | 45 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marlon Vera | 53 of 101 | 52% | 45 of 90 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 51 of 98 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 30 of 84 | 35% | 16 of 69 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 9 | 28 of 82 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vera (-198), Munhoz (+164)
Round 1
The UFC made the best of a rough situation when Henry Cejudo withdrew from this matchup against Vera (20-8-1, 14-7 UFC). With about a month to prepare, Munhoz (20-7, 2 NC; 10-7, 2 NC UFC) is more than ready to rise to the occasion and battle it out tooth-and-nail for 15 hard minutes. Neither man has ever been finished, so referee Herb Dean could be in it for the long haul. These two action-packed bantamweights meet in the middle with a glove touch, and Vera immediately takes the center of the cage to lord over it. Munhoz strikes first with a body kick, and he chains a leg kick into it. Vera keeps his hands high but Munhoz gets a right hand in, and the two end up clashing shins at the same time. Vera catches a kick and knocks Munhoz down to the ground, and he nearly lands an illegal soccer kick but pulls back at the last second. Munhoz gets right back up, and he starts chasing Vera with looping punches. Munhoz mixes in leg kicks, and Vera pierces the guard with a sharp jab. Both fighters trade front kicks, and Munhoz chips away at him with strikes to the legs and body. Vera ignores a front kick to the midsection and blocks a right hand, and Munhoz comes at him with a head kick that slides off the raised guard. Vera pops out another jab, and he parries the strikes from Munhoz that come his way. Vera connects with a hefty leg kick, and he snaps the head back with a straight left hand. Vera’s jab intercepts “The Young Punisher” crashing the pocket, and he hops back to avoid a body shot. Munhoz shoots in from a distance for a takedown, and Vera stifles it and responds with a jab and a leg kick. Munhoz’ nose is already starting to redden up, and Vera releases a low kick and a one-two. Munhoz charges, and Vera counters him with a knee that rebounds off the forearm of his opponent. Vera strings together three punches that do not find their home, but a jab does when Munhoz chops at his lead heel. Vera lets go with his hands in a short exchange, and Munhoz connects with two thudding left hands over the top. Munhoz fires off a right hook, and Vera replies with a front kick that grazes past his cheek. Munhoz swarms with two punches before changing stances and swinging with one more. Vera lands a leg kick and continues damaging Munhoz’ nose with jabs, and he stops Munhoz from backing him off thanks to his jab. Vera digs a left to the body, and he keeps his jab flowing. Munhoz elects to mimic this with three straight jabs, and leg kicks come from both fighters. Vera checks a leg kick and darts away when Munhoz throws hands, and Vera resets with a front kick and a swatting left hook. The close round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Round 2
The bantamweights come together in the middle of the cage, with Munhoz pushing out an immediate front kick. Vera slips punches and counters, and Munhoz lands another front kick to the body. Vera misses a head kick by a few inches, and he buzzes the hair with a second kick. Munhoz looses a big right hand, and Vera rolls with it and counters with a jab. Vera goes up high with a kick, and Munhoz swings a left hook that grazes past the target. Vera jabs a few times and parries a front kick to the side, and he connects with a thumping leg kick. Munhoz spams front kick, and Vera stands him up with a left hook on the inside. Vera peppers the nose with another sharp jab, and Munhoz lashes back with a strong leg kick and a left hook. Vera tanks it and kicks back on the lead wheel, and he paws out three punches that bounce off the gloves. Munhoz misses with a two-punch string, and he lands on a second effort. The right hands land from Munhoz, and Vera evades a spinning kick with ease. Vera gets in a short left hook, and he walks through a few leg kicks and has punches blocked. Munhoz plants a right hand down the pipe, and he backs off as he eats a body shot and protects his mug from a head kick. Munhoz plows forward and connects with a left, and they get off jabs at the same time. Munhoz follows it with a left hook, and they decide to dish out leg kicks one after the other. Vera nails his foe with a right hand, and Munhoz shakes it off and rubs his nose. Munhoz lands two straight right hands that Vera takes flush without batting an eye, and they swing their fists but end up missing with their exchanges. Vera slides a punch to land a left, and Munhoz whips a right hand over the top. Vera checks a leg kick and snaps out a jab, and a left and a right knock him back a few steps. Vera looks to catch a low kick and counter with a right hand, and he works the body as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Munhoz
Round 3
They clap hands to get started with one final round, and they both swing leg kicks at the same time. Vera checks a kick and strikes with his jab, and Dean tells him to watch his fingers. Vera connects with a left to the body and a right to the head, and he clubs Munhoz with a right hand as Munhoz comes his way. Munhoz fires back when Vera lands on him, and he splits the guard with a right hand. The two hand-fight, and Vera tries to check a low kick. Vera stings Munhoz with a jab, and a second makes Munhoz blink it out. Vera goes with a left to the ribs and a right up top, and Munhoz considers taking the fight down as he is stunned. Vera continues to crush Munhoz’ nose with his jab, and Munhoz is fighting back but it is starting to get to him. Munhoz absorbs a flush one-two, and he swings for the fences only to get nailed with a left hook. Munhoz is there every step of the way, but his face is starting to show serious damage. Vera hammers a left to the body that bends Munhoz over, but Munhoz gathers himself and blitzes forward. Vera stands firm and fires out his piston-like jab, and Munhoz has no answer to it other than to try to get his own going as well. Vera checks a kick and puts three punches on the chin of his opponent, and Munhoz is tough but gets stung with two vicious lefts. Munhoz takes a flush jab and shakes his head only to crash forward, and even though he lands, Vera is hitting him much harder. Vera brings a high kick up top for good measure, and he jabs up Munhoz’ face. Vera blocks two punches and lands a right, and Munhoz slips the follow-up and kicks the body twice. Vera nods at him and wings a left hand, and Munhoz shoulder-rolls and counters. Vera plants his fist on the Brazilian’s chin three times in rapid succession, and he ignores a counter. Vera starts showboating, and he steps back as Munhoz spins with two unsuccessful kicks. Vera hoots, and he drops his hands and puts them behind his back. Before Munhoz can reach him, the razor-close matchup comes to a close. It could be anybody’s fight, and judges will have their hands full scoring the first two rounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera (29-28 Munhoz)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vera (29-28 Munhoz)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vera (29-28 Munhoz)
The Official Result
Marlon Vera def. Pedro Munhoz via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Marlon Vera despite acknowledging red flags: Vera is overrated, has been outstruck in his last four fights, and lacks urgency. However, he believes Pedro Munhoz's orthodox striking style plays into Vera's strengths, as Vera excels against fighters who stand in front of him. He also notes Munhoz is on short notice. He has Vera in a parlay.
Big Brady picks Pedro Munhoz as a slight underdog, expecting a split decision. He notes Vera is a slow starter who loses first rounds and has been outstruck in four of his last five fights. Munhoz has never been knocked out or knocked down, and Brady believes the fight will be close, favoring the dog.
Cody highlights Vera's notorious slow starts, often losing the first round, which is problematic in a three-round fight. Munhoz has a good chin and Jiu-Jitsu, and could capitalize if Vera starts slow. He suggests live betting Vera after the first round if he loses it, but officially picks Munhoz as a live underdog.
Daniel Levi picks Marlon Vera, believing Vera will push the pace in the second and third rounds and win a decision. He notes that Vera struggles against longer fighters or those who put him on his back, but here Vera is the longer man. Levi thinks Vera will use front kicks and knees, and that Munoz slows down as fights progress. He also mentions that neither fighter has been finished, but both are hittable, so a finish is possible.
Lucrative James picks Marlon Vera to win, possibly by finish, despite Munhoz never being finished in 28 fights. He notes Vera's reach and height advantages, and believes Munhoz's durability may be declining. He expects Vera to pull away in rounds 2 and 3.
Vera is the more diverse striker and should land damaging blows as the fight goes on. However, Munhoz is durable and can win early rounds with forward pressure. The over 2.5 rounds is the best bet as Vera likely wins rounds 2 and 3 by decision. The moneyline is not worth it due to Vera's slow starts.
The MMA Guru picks Pedro Munhoz over Marlon Vera. He argues Vera relies on finishing opponents late, but Munhoz never gets wobbled, never slows down, and has fought the who's who of bantamweight. He notes Vera struggles in three-round fights and Munhoz's leg kicks and pressure will annoy Vera. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Munhoz.
Connor picks Gutierrez, agreeing that Munhoz has lost his edge since moving to American Top Team. He notes that Munhoz's old Kings MMA style of relentless pressure is gone, replaced by a more tentative approach. Connor believes Gutierrez's consistent output and target selection will outwork Munhoz, who has become too passive and reliant on a jab and footwork that don't suit his natural aggression.
Zane picks Gutierrez, highlighting his improvement and confidence versus Munhoz's decline. He notes that Munhoz has lost his aggressive, four-limbed attack and become more technical but less effective. Zane believes Gutierrez's volume, kicking game, and ability to attack all targets will overwhelm Munhoz, who has poor defensive footwork and has been vulnerable to leg kicks historically.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 26 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 19 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Munhoz | 26 of 41 | 63% | 0 of 9 | 0 of 2 | 26 of 30 | 26 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 25 of 47 | 53% | 14 of 30 | 8 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pedro Munhoz | 19 of 25 | 76% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 22 | 19 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 15 of 26 | 57% | 7 of 13 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Pedro Munhoz | 7 of 16 | 43% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean O'Malley | 10 of 21 | 47% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: O’Malley (-300), Munhoz (+250)
Round 1
Kicking off the main card is another fight that could have served as the main event of a Fight Night offering recently, as established veteran Munhoz (19-7, 1 NC; 9-7, 1 NC UFC) looks to shut down the “Sugar Show” of O’Malley (15-1, 7-1 UFC) at bantamweight. Feet and fists are sure to fly fervently, but not before referee Jason Herzog checks them in. The gloves are expectedly not touched given O’Malley’s chatter ahead of the fight, and they land leg kicks at the same time to start things off. O’Malley keeps a wide berth from afar, with a distance where even he cannot land with his significant reach advantage. They are cautious to engage, and O’Malley tosses out a few front kicks while Munhoz goes to the calf repeatedly. O’Malley loads up on an overhand right, and he checks a calf kick that zooms at him. Munhoz checks one in response, and he sweeps low with his rear leg. O’Malley pierces the guard with a jab, and Munhoz circles away and lands a solid leg kick as O’Malley switches stances. The American pokes out a few jabs but little else, and he leaps back as the low kick comes towards him. “Sugar Sean” spins with a back kick, and Munhoz is out of harm’s way in time. Munhoz hammers the leg multiples times, and O’Malley steps forward with a front kick and a straight right hand down the pipe. O’Malley slaps a front kick out, and it bangs into the cup. Herzog spots it immediately, and the crowd boos him despite that the foul lands cleanly. Munhoz takes less than a minute to get back to action, and O’Malley comes out throwing hands. Munhoz answers him with a barrage of leg kicks from both legs, and he appears fired up and walking O’Malley down. They continue to pepper the lead legs of one another with kicks, and Munhoz fires off a high kick that gets blocked in time. Munhoz bears down on him with a chopping kick, and they add up as O’Malley tries to push him back with jabs. The pink-haired fighter spin with a back kick to the midsection, and Munhoz answers him as he plants down with a thudding kick. Munhoz whiffs on a spin kick, and O’Malley mocks him with a pirouette as the crowd guffaws. The tentative round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley
Round 2
The second frame opens as Munhoz comes out running forward, and he switches stances every single time O’Malley does to mirror his stance and allow him to have effective leg kicks come out. Munhoz misses on a head kick, and a front kick as well as he pulls his leg back and lands awkwardly. O’Malley pokes out a few jabs to little effect, and Munhoz retreats and gets popped with a one-two. O’Malley spins with a wheel kick that just brushes past Munhoz’ hair, and one inch to the right could have spelled problems for the Brazilian. Munhoz kicks the midsection on his way in, and he swipes low with a kick. O’Malley absorbs a kick with an audible thud, and he loads up with a right hand that collides with the guard. O’Malley dings Munhoz with a straight right, and the Brazilian loads up on a low kick in response. Practically all of the strikes landed by “The Young Punisher” are leg kicks, and they are rarely more than single strikes. They continue to connect, and O’Malley, irritated from them, pops out a jab. Munhoz lands a punch, and O’Malley reaches out with his fingers outstretched to jab Munhoz in the eye. Munhoz turns away and tries to clear his vision. Herzog allows him to recover and calls in a doctor to give him more time, Munhoz seems to tell the doctor he cannot see out of his right eye. The doctor helps him wipe his eye, and Munhoz claims that all he sees is black from one eye. With that answer, Herzog and the physician properly call the fight off, as Munhoz cannot continue. This poke ruled an unintentional foul, it will go down as a no contest. This is an unfortunate ending to a competitive and intriguing bout, and hopefully the promotion can run it back in the near future.
The Official Result
Sean O’Malley vs. Pedro Munhoz is ruled a No Contest (Accidental Eye Poke) R2 3:09
Angelo picks Sean O'Malley, citing his accuracy and athletic striking. He believes Munhoz's volume and forward pressure will work against him as O'Malley sticks and moves. He expresses frustration with the matchup, feeling Munhoz is being fed to a rising star, but still sees O'Malley winning a decision.
Big Brady is confident in Sean O'Malley, citing his size, speed, and striking advantage. He notes Munhoz is hittable and absorbs many strikes, but worries about O'Malley's leg kicks and durability. He predicts O'Malley wins by decision, as Munhoz has never been knocked out.
Cody acknowledges Munhoz's path to victory via leg kicks and pressure, but notes Munhoz has declined and lacks wrestling. He thinks O'Malley's reach and speed will be decisive, and that Munhoz hasn't landed a takedown since 2018. He picks O'Malley as the rightful favorite.
Daniel Levi is confident in Sean O'Malley, having bet 5 units to win 2 at -250. He believes O'Malley's height, reach, volume, and stance switching will be too much for Munhoz, who is there to be hit and may be on the decline. Levi dismisses the leg kick narrative, noting that O'Malley can mitigate it by fighting southpaw. He respects Munhoz's guillotine and calf kicks but thinks O'Malley's evolution and youth give him the edge.
O'Malley is faster and more technical, but Munhoz has never been knocked out and has good leg kicks. O'Malley should win by decision, staying on the outside and avoiding leg kicks. The host is not confident in a finish and prefers the decision prop.
Paul agrees with Cody that O'Malley's reach advantage and volume will be key. He notes Munhoz's lack of wrestling makes it hard to back him at +275. He picks O'Malley to win.
The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley, citing his elusiveness, range advantage (7-inch reach), and ability to slow down pressure fighters. He believes Pedro Munhoz has declined and that O'Malley's front kicks and leg kicks will be key. He predicts O'Malley will pick Munhoz apart and win a decision, noting Munhoz's lack of offensive wrestling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Cruz | 1 | 74 of 170 | 43% | 79 of 175 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 103 of 274 | 37% | 105 of 276 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Cruz | 1 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 26 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 25 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 27 of 57 | 47% | 27 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 35 of 113 | 30% | 35 of 113 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Dominick Cruz | 0 | 26 of 68 | 38% | 26 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 43 of 110 | 39% | 45 of 112 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Cruz | 74 of 170 | 43% | 45 of 128 | 10 of 16 | 19 of 26 | 73 of 168 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 103 of 274 | 37% | 79 of 240 | 13 of 23 | 11 of 11 | 100 of 270 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Cruz | 21 of 45 | 46% | 14 of 33 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 20 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 25 of 51 | 49% | 18 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Dominick Cruz | 27 of 57 | 47% | 12 of 39 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 13 | 27 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 35 of 113 | 30% | 30 of 105 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 111 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dominick Cruz | 26 of 68 | 38% | 19 of 56 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 26 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 43 of 110 | 39% | 31 of 93 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 43 of 110 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Dominick Cruz by decision, but with low confidence. He notes that Cruz has excellent striking defense (72%) and movement, and the bigger cage favors his footwork. Munoz is dangerous with leg kicks and submissions, but he absorbs a lot of strikes. Brady believes Cruz can stay on the outside and outpoint Munoz, but Munoz's power and grappling threat make this a close fight.
Daniel Levi picks Dominick Cruz to win by decision, citing Munhoz's struggles against point fighters. He notes that Munhoz gets hit frequently (six times per minute) and has lost to fighters like John Dodson and Frankie Edgar who use movement. Levi believes Cruz's footwork and elusiveness will frustrate Munhoz, and the larger octagon at T-Mobile gives Cruz more room. He acknowledges Munhoz's power and calf kicks but thinks Cruz can neutralize them. Levi sees Cruz winning a clear decision.
The MMA Guru picks Dominick Cruz to win by decision (29-28). He believes Cruz's footwork and range management will be problematic for Munhoz, who struggles against fighters who stay on the outside. He notes the bigger cage favors Cruz and that Munhoz has faded in recent fights.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 0 | 114 of 223 | 51% | 114 of 223 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 75 of 179 | 41% | 75 of 179 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 0 | 25 of 60 | 41% | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 28 of 76 | 36% | 28 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 0 | 42 of 95 | 44% | 42 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 33 of 71 | 46% | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 0 | 47 of 68 | 69% | 47 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 114 of 223 | 51% | 74 of 168 | 32 of 47 | 8 of 8 | 114 of 223 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 75 of 179 | 41% | 35 of 131 | 3 of 6 | 37 of 42 | 71 of 175 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 25 of 60 | 41% | 13 of 40 | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 28 of 76 | 36% | 11 of 54 | 2 of 4 | 15 of 18 | 27 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 42 of 95 | 44% | 32 of 78 | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 42 of 95 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 33 of 71 | 46% | 16 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 18 | 32 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 47 of 68 | 69% | 29 of 50 | 11 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 47 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 14 of 32 | 43% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo is likely older than his listed age (34) and may be on the wrong side of 40. He sees Munhoz as a younger, high-volume fighter with leg kicks who can come forward and win. He acknowledges Aldo's counter-striking but believes Munhoz's constant movement and pressure will be key.
Big Brady sees this as a very close fight between Aldo's power and Munhoz's volume. He leans toward Munhoz's volume, noting Aldo's low output in recent fights. He thinks Munhoz's durability (never finished) will allow him to outwork Aldo and win a decision. He calls it one of the toughest fights to call on the card.
Cody picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo fades in later rounds and Munhoz has excellent cardio and durability. He notes Aldo's recent reliance on grappling against Vera won't work against Munhoz. Cody sees Munhoz winning by decision after dropping the first round, and likes the live betting opportunity.
Daniel Levi slightly leans Pedro Munhoz due to Munhoz's high output, durability, and pressure fighting style. He acknowledges that Aldo is technically superior and could win early rounds, but expects Munhoz to take over in the later rounds as Aldo fades. He also notes that Munhoz has been robbed by judges before, which makes him less confident, but he still picks Munhoz to get it done.
Aldo has shown he can adapt, using grappling to win rounds. He is the better striker and should check Munhoz's calf kicks. Munhoz is durable but gets hit a lot, and Aldo can outpoint him over three rounds. Aldo's cardio is better in three-round fights, and he should win a decision. Munhoz's path is marching forward and landing big shots, but Aldo's experience and technique should prevail.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He acknowledges Cody's reasoning and mentions interest in the under 2.5 rounds at +175, but does not commit to a side. He notes that Aldo may look good early but pace slows, and that grappling may not be an option for Aldo.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Pedro Munhoz. He notes Aldo's size advantage, reach, and speed, and believes three rounds is not enough for Munhoz to wear on Aldo. He predicts Aldo will win the first two rounds and take a 29-28 decision. He mentions Aldo's body shots and Munhoz's vulnerability to body strikes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 94 of 194 | 48% | 94 of 194 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jimmie Rivera | 0 | 65 of 193 | 33% | 65 of 193 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 37 of 72 | 51% | 37 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jimmie Rivera | 0 | 31 of 80 | 38% | 31 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 26 of 49 | 53% | 26 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jimmie Rivera | 0 | 18 of 50 | 36% | 18 of 50 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 31 of 73 | 42% | 31 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jimmie Rivera | 0 | 16 of 63 | 25% | 16 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Munhoz | 94 of 194 | 48% | 35 of 115 | 19 of 27 | 40 of 52 | 93 of 193 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmie Rivera | 65 of 193 | 33% | 48 of 168 | 4 of 8 | 13 of 17 | 65 of 193 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pedro Munhoz | 37 of 72 | 51% | 12 of 40 | 5 of 7 | 20 of 25 | 37 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmie Rivera | 31 of 80 | 38% | 20 of 67 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 31 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Pedro Munhoz | 26 of 49 | 53% | 8 of 26 | 7 of 8 | 11 of 15 | 25 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmie Rivera | 18 of 50 | 36% | 14 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 18 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Pedro Munhoz | 31 of 73 | 42% | 15 of 49 | 7 of 12 | 9 of 12 | 31 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmie Rivera | 16 of 63 | 25% | 14 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Jimmie Rivera to win by decision. He highlights Rivera's 92% takedown defense and speed advantage. He notes Munhoz is extremely hittable, absorbing more strikes than he lands, and that Rivera will outvolume him. He thinks Munhoz needs a finish to win, but Rivera has only been knocked out once and Munhoz has never been finished. He mentions Rivera is in his prime and has lost only to top competition. He likes the moneyline at -150 and considers a decision prop.
Daniel Levi picks Jimmie Rivera, but with hesitation. He notes Rivera is the cleaner striker and historically does well in decisions, while Munhoz has more finishing potential. Levi worries about Rivera's chin but thinks if it goes to the scorecards, Rivera edges it. He acknowledges Munhoz's power and calf kicks but leans Rivera by decision.
Rivera is a Muay Thai specialist with superior footwork and striking technique. Munhoz is a walking punching bag who marches forward, but Rivera's calf kicks and combinations should outclass him. Rivera's takedown defense is strong, and Munhoz's only chance is a knockout, which is unlikely given Rivera's durability. Expect a decision win for Rivera.
The MMA Guru picks Jimmie Rivera, believing he won the first fight clearly and has improved more than Munhoz since then. He notes Rivera is now in his prime while Munhoz is past his, and expects Rivera to outbox Munhoz over three rounds, winning a unanimous decision 30-27. He mentions Munhoz's only chance is a knockout, but Rivera is aware of that threat.
Cody Garbrandt - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 28 of 54 | 51% | 28 of 54 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Xiao Long | 0 | 59 of 108 | 54% | 70 of 119 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Xiao Long | 0 | 20 of 31 | 64% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Xiao Long | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 22 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Xiao Long | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 28 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 28 of 54 | 51% | 13 of 39 | 11 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 42 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Xiao Long | 59 of 108 | 54% | 11 of 41 | 19 of 28 | 29 of 39 | 51 of 99 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 10 of 20 | 50% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Xiao Long | 20 of 31 | 64% | 3 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 15 of 17 | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cody Garbrandt | 7 of 15 | 46% | 4 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Xiao Long | 21 of 41 | 51% | 3 of 16 | 6 of 7 | 12 of 18 | 21 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cody Garbrandt | 11 of 19 | 57% | 3 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Xiao Long | 18 of 36 | 50% | 5 of 15 | 11 of 17 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 |
Angelo picks Cody Garbrandt to win based on his striking and footwork, but strongly advises against betting on him, calling it a ridiculous thing to do in 2026. He notes Cody's age and recent loss to an older fighter, and says he would never put money on Cody. He separates pick from bet.
Big Brady picks Cody Garbrandt as an underdog over Xiao Long, but with low confidence. He believes Garbrandt is washed and can't take a shot, but Long Xiao lacks KO power and has poor takedown ability. Garbrandt still has elite takedown defense and anti-grappling. Brady expects a boring fight where Garbrandt uses movement and clinching to win a decision, similar to his fight against Trevin Jones. He warns fans will boo.
Cody picks Garbrandt as a dog, citing his superior competition and wrestling ability. He notes that Xiao Long has been taken down frequently and that Garbrandt can use wrestling to win. He acknowledges the risk but sees value at plus money.
Connor believes Garbrandt should win easily based on speed and the level of competition. He notes that Long Zhao has struggled against low-level bantamweights and that Garbrandt, despite his psychological and technical flaws, has a massive advantage in athleticism. He is shocked that Garbrandt is an underdog and thinks the line is inaccurate.
Daniel Vreeland reluctantly picks Cody Garbrandt as an underdog, citing his higher level of competition and former champion status. He notes that Garbrandt's chin and cardio are concerns, but he believes Garbrandt has enough to beat a relatively unproven opponent. Vreeland warns that picking Garbrandt is scary but sees value.
The host acknowledges Garbrandt is technically superior on the feet but is on a steep decline, with poor durability and gun-shy tendencies. He compares Garbrandt to other declining fighters like Moreno and Cyborg. Xiao Long is a high-volume, tough striker who throws double the strikes per minute. The host would back Long if forced to bet, but personally passes due to Long being average and the possibility of Garbrandt outclassing him.
James picks Cody Garbrandt as an underdog, believing this is a massive step down in competition for Garbrandt. He notes Garbrandt's speed advantage and better boxing, and expects him to win round one. However, he acknowledges Garbrandt's poor chin and cardio, but thinks he can survive if he builds an early lead. James sees the fight as close to 50/50, making Garbrandt the value side at plus odds.
Garbrandt is washed with a compromised chin and cardio. Long is durable, aggressive, and has good takedown defense. After a competitive first round, Long will walk Garbrandt down and likely knock him out in the second or third round.
Paul also picks Garbrandt, noting his speed and technique. He thinks the fight will be close and dicey, but at plus money, he takes the former champion. He acknowledges the possibility of a knockout loss.
The MMA Guru picks Cody Garbrandt, believing he will outclass Xiao Long at range. He notes Garbrandt's speed and footwork, and predicts a decision or late KO. He acknowledges Garbrandt's inconsistency but thinks Xiao Long is not top-level.
Zane agrees that Garbrandt should win, emphasizing that Long Zhao is a significant step down from Garbrandt's recent opponents. He notes that Garbrandt has shown some improvement in recent losses, but still has major flaws. He is also surprised by the betting line and thinks Garbrandt should be a healthy favorite.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 28 of 94 | 29% | 45 of 111 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:46 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 37 of 85 | 43% | 43 of 93 | 1 of 11 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 10 of 44 | 22% | 10 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 8 of 21 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 6 of 27 | 22% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 17 of 38 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 3 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 21 of 32 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:33 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 28 of 94 | 29% | 23 of 85 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 86 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 37 of 85 | 43% | 31 of 75 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 33 of 76 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 10 of 44 | 22% | 10 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cody Garbrandt | 6 of 27 | 22% | 4 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 15 of 35 | 42% | 14 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 28 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cody Garbrandt | 12 of 23 | 52% | 9 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 16 of 31 | 51% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Barcelos (-180), Garbrandt (+150)
Round 1
Of the three Codys competing tonight, Garbrandt (14-6, 9-6 UFC) is the last one to try to get on the board for his namesake. The former champ, who celebrates about 80% of his wins by knockout, takes on a man five years his elder but no less dangerous than ever in Barcelos (19-5, 8-4 UFC). Most notably, the Brazilian derailed the hype train of Payton Talbott in January, firmly ruling out that he was washed up and ready to get tucked into bed. Referee Mike Beltran draws the assignment to watch over the bantamweights, watching them bump fists together to start the match. Garbrandt starts fast, rushing forward with four punches and a head kick. Barcelos bounces off the fence, and Garbrandt surges towards him with a trio of flying fists. Another combo comes from the former champ, and Barcelos ducks it and tries to take him down. Garbrandt hops away and resets, already wary of the possible takedown in play. Garbrandt measures with a single body kick, and he rails Barcelos with three speedy punches. Barcelos drops to a knee, and Garbrandt points at him. As Barcelos stands, he goes after a takedown. Garbrandt ducks away from it, dodges an overhand right and falls to 50/50 when Barcelos looks for a takedown. When the takedown does not materialize, Barcelos leaps at him and splits open Garbrandt’s eyebrow with his knee. Garbrandt backs away, avoiding a flying switch kick as chants for “Let’s go, Cody” echo in the building. Barcelos lands first after they stop calling for the former champ, working the body with a left. Barcelos has a head kick slap off the raised guard, and he rolls with a right hand over the top. Garbrandt swings and misses with a pair of punches, and his second effort to the body gets in. “No Love” shows Barcelos no love by tossing him out of the way, although the Brazilian recovers and fires off an uppercut that gets through. Garbrandt knees up the middle and tags Barcelos with two fast punches, and Barcelos gets his attention with a strong overhand right. Garbrandt thinks about showboating or dancing but evaluates that the strike did some damage and plays it cool. Barcelos attacks a single, and Garbrandt pops out of it and partially checks a calf kick flying at him. Garbrandt has three or four punches land, and he does a little dance. Barcelos takes him down, and Garbrandt gets away with an illegal upkick while scrambling. Barcelos climbs into top position, lands a few hammerfists, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garbrandt
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garbrandt
Round 2
The fighters high-five before getting after it, and Barcelos is quick to engage his wrestling. Garbrandt’s overhand right goes wide, and he plants his feet to defend the takedown effort. Another try also comes up short, and Garbrandt pushes off and loads up on quick punches. Barcelos chases Garbrandt around the outer edge of the cage, chambering and firing a right hand but missing with the follow-up. Barcelos chops down the front leg, and he ducks down and eats a right hand while looking for a single. When the takedown is not successful, Barcelos clips him with two right hands. Garbrandt defends a double, but a knee up the middle from the Brazilian tags him cleanly. Garbrandt puts out two punches that further develop some swelling on Barcelos’ right cheek, but Barcelos ignores it and shoots for a single. Garbrandt stuffs it, turns his man to the side and elbows him cleanly for it. Barcelos keeps the pressure up, walking through a low kick and a body shot to catch “No Love” with his overhand right. Barcelos times a crisp uppercut and drops down for a single, lifting Garbrandt’s leg way up in the air. Garbrandt still stays upright, takes a right hand and puts his leg down. Barcelos connects with another big right, and he reaches out with one to the midsection. Barcelos jabs his way forward, scooting back to avoid all but a left hand in a combination. Garbrandt rolls with a right hand on the way out, but the jab from the Brazilian is finding its home repeatedly. Barcelos loads up on a right hand and ducks down, before unleashing another right hand that nearly puts the champ down. The round ends with Garbrandt shooting for a desperation takedown.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Round 3
There is a final glove touch, and Barcelos gets right back to pressuring. Garbrandt keeps him at bay for less than a second with a body kick, as Barcelos walks him down behind his overhand right. Garbrandt shoots for a single, and Barcelos laughs it off. A second takedown from Garbrandt is nowhere near being successful, and Barcelos pays him back with a calf kick that turns Garbrandt’s knee. Garbrandt gives him back two low kicks to think about, and he absorbs a flush right hand when circling away. Barcelos kicks at his front leg again, setting up his jab and right hand. Garbrandt rushes forward but is out of range for his combo, and he gets sat down with a leg kick. The former champ shoots for a takedown and finds his way into a guillotine choke setup, but he breaks out of is as he leans against Barcelos. The Brazilian breaks free, and Garbrandt connects at the end of a right and a left. Barcelos clubs him with a one-two that forces the striker to shoot in on his hips, and he holds Garbrandt down and circles around to the side in hopes of taking the back. Barcelos manages to take the back after softening Garbrandt up, and he sneaks a hook in. “No Love” lands some no-look punches, but Barcelos is singularly focused on shutting down any hopes of escape. Garbrandt pushes his feet on the wall to turn himself around, where he drops down two punches before Barcelos explodes. The two fighters burst back to their feet and start slugging it out, with Garbrandt landing flush and Barcelos doing the same. Garbrandt waves him on, and Barcelos instead backs off. Garbrandt scores a right hand and is chucked out of the way like a child’s plaything when attempting a single. Garbrandt points to the ground to initiate a brawl, but Barcelos goes the opposite direction and evades him until the fight wraps. Barring something unexpected, all three Codys struck out tonight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-27 Barcelos)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Cody Garbrandt via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo leans Cody because he is faster and has power, while Raoni lacks power in his hands. He warns that Cody must avoid getting taken down. He is not confident enough to bet on Cody given his recent struggles.
Big Brady picks Cody Garbrandt by second-round knockout. He believes Garbrandt's takedown defense is elite (80%) and that he can keep the fight standing. He notes Barcelos is 38 with a questionable chin, and Garbrandt has the power to knock him out. He acknowledges multiple outcomes but leans toward a knockout.
Connor picks Barcelos, emphasizing that Garbrandt's wrestling has declined and that Barcelos's chain wrestling and takedown variety will be a major threat. He notes that Garbrandt's tunnel vision when he feels confident often leads to him getting taken down, as seen against Figueiredo. Connor also points out that Barcelos is 38 and chinny, so Garbrandt could still knock him out, but Barcelos's wrestling should be the deciding factor.
Despite public love for Barcelos after his upset win, Garbrandt has good takedown defense and superior striking. He will chip away at Barcelos and win a decision.
The Guru picks Raoni Barcelos, stating he is 'done with Cody Garbrandt.' He criticizes Garbrandt's fundamental flaws in striking and grappling, such as giving up his back and poor low kicks. He notes Barcelos has faced tough competition and fraud-checked Payton Talbott. He expects Barcelos to win by decision or TKO in the second round.
Zane picks Barcelos, citing his deep wrestling game and ability to chain takedowns, which should be effective against Garbrandt's shaky takedown defense. He notes that Garbrandt has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers and that Barcelos's wrestling has improved with age. However, Zane acknowledges that Barcelos's striking has become a liability and that Garbrandt still has one-punch power, making this a dangerous fight for both.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 21 of 27 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 2 | 0 | 3:43 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 18 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 9 of 15 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 12 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 13 of 19 | 68% | 9 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 16 of 31 | 51% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 11 | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 9 of 15 | 60% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 14 of 26 | 53% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 11 | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 4 of 4 | 100% | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Figueiredo (-310), Garbrandt (+250)
Round 1
Tonight’s the night. And it’s going to happen again and again. Has to happen. Nice night. Las Vegas is a great town. I love the international food, bahn mi sandwiches, my favorite. But we’re hungry for something different now. Violence. It’s coming by the bucketful, and it starts with bantamweights that will almost certainly stand and bang. Former flyweight kingpin Figueiredo (22-3-1, 11-3-1 UFC) is putting some momentum together to make a run at his new weight class, while Garbrandt (14-5, 9-5 UFC) wishes to hold the line and prove he is not washed up at the tender age of 32. Fists are sure to fly, but before they do, referee Mark Smith checks them in. There is no touch of gloves, and it go time. Garbrandt introduces himself with a chopping calf kick, and he fires off another without concern. Garbrandt aims another on the inside, and then drops down on his knee to throw a sweeping kick out of the Mortal Kombat playbook. Figueiredo reaches out with a right hand that comes up short, and Garbrandt continues to work the lead leg. Figueiredo responds with one that he turns his hips into, and both men clash together and swing hard, while banging heads. Figueiredo backs off and gathers his thoughts, and he checks a kick coming at him. Figueiredo ducks an oncoming salvo and brings up a knee to the body, and he intercepts Garbrandt tossing a cartwheel kick by kicking Garbrandt in the face. The former bantamweight champ gets back up without issue, and he marches down “Daico.” Figueiredo lunges forward with an inaccurate swarm of punches, and Garbrandt hops in and out deliver a low kick. Garbrandt prods out with another calf kick, and he keeps his guard up to swat away a front kick aimed at his chin. Garbrandt leaps forward and catches the Brazilian with a left hand, and Figueiredo pulls guard and looks for a leglock. Garbrandt backs off before he is vulnerable, and he resets and dings a standing Figueiredo with a sharp one-two. Figueiredo meanders forward and lets go with a right hand, but it is one-and-done. Figueiredo does not quite reach with a front kick, but he elects to take the fight down and lifts Garbrandt’s leg up to drive him to the mat. Garbrandt jumps back up without taking any additional fire, and he lands a low kick before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garbrandt
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Garbrandt
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Round 2
The fighters get back to business, and Garbrandt reaches out first with a high body kick. Figueiredo rushes forward swinging leather, and Garbrandt answers him with a clubbing left hand. Figueiredo pursues a takedown from behind, where he strips the former bantamweight champ from his balance and lowers him down to the mat. Figueiredo shifts over to move into half guard, where he presses down for a potential arm-triangle choke. Garbrandt turns, and Figueiredo takes his back and flattens him out. Figueiredo wriggles his arm out and hammers Garbrandt in the side of the head with a right hand. When Garbrandt turns back over, Figueiredo assumes full mount and sets up an arm-triangle choke. “Deus da Guerra” jumps over to the side and locks down the arm-triangle choke, and he squeezes with all his might. Garbrandt struggles and keeps his wits about him, while Figueiredo lowers his chest down to complete the maneuver. Figueiredo sits up just slightly and punches him in the side of the head, and he gets back to mount. Garbrandt tries to kick off and explode back to his feet, but the Brazilian mightily shoves him flat on his back. Figueiredo drops down shoulder strikes to the jaw, and he smacks Garbrandt in the side of the head with his fists when he finds openings. Garbrandt bursts back to his feet, and Figueiredo follows him every step of the way to lock down back control, set up a body triangle and start fishing for a choke.
Figueiredo cinches up a rear-naked choke, and at this point it is just academic. “No Love” considers going out on his shield, but at the last minute, he taps out, and we have our first finish of the evening.
This marks the first time that Garbrandt has ever been submitted.
The Official Result
Deiveson Figueiredo def. Cody Garbrandt R2 4:02 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Cody Garbrandt as the underdog, citing his superior wrestling, clean boxing, and size advantage. He notes Figueiredo's power may not carry up to bantamweight and that Garbrandt's chin is a concern but his wrestling history and boxing should prevail. He acknowledges Garbrandt's tendency to chase knockouts and get caught, but believes his wrestling and boxing will be enough.
Cody is very confident in Figueiredo. He notes that Garbrandt's resurgence came against low-level opponents (Brian Kelleher, Trevin Jones) and that he still has a weak chin. Figueiredo is a big bantamweight with power in both hands and solid takedown defense. Cody points out that Garbrandt fights emotionally and tends to run into fire when hit. He expects Figueiredo to knock Garbrandt out, possibly in the first round. Cody calls this his favorite bet on the card.
Connor picks Figueiredo, agreeing that Garbrandt's chin and tendency to make mistakes will be exploited. He notes that Figueiredo's new patient style will allow him to get reads without putting himself in danger. Connor points out that Garbrandt only gets reads when pursued, and Figueiredo will not oblige. He expects Figueiredo to land a big shot eventually.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Deiveson Figueiredo, citing his power and guillotine choke. He acknowledges Garbrandt's chin issues and believes Figueiredo will land a knockout. However, he is hesitant due to Figueiredo's inconsistent performances and the high price (-300). Vreeland notes that Figueiredo can be gun-shy and Garbrandt has power, making this a risky bet.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He calls it a banger and says it's impossible for the fight to be boring. He notes that the UFC has been trying to put it together for a while. No prediction is given.
Figueiredo is the bigger power puncher and will force Garbrandt to exchange. Garbrandt has been hesitant recently but will be forced to bite down on his mouthpiece and pay dearly. Figueiredo knocks him out within two rounds.
Paul agrees, noting that Garbrandt has all the skills but lacks durability. Figueiredo is a big flyweight who carries power up to bantamweight. Paul mentions that Garbrandt throws naked leg kicks in the pocket, leaving himself open to counters. Figueiredo has power in both hands and is relentless when he hurts opponents. Paul believes Garbrandt will get into a firefight and eventually get knocked out. He also notes that Figueiredo has good takedown defense and get-up game.
The MMA Guru envisions Cody Garbrandt knocking out Deiveson Figueiredo in the first round. He notes that Figueiredo is a straight-line puncher, while Garbrandt excels with hooks and keeping his head off the center line. He believes Garbrandt will make Figueiredo go first and time him with a devastating shot, citing Garbrandt's speed and momentum after recent wins.
Zane picks Figueiredo, reasoning that he is the biggest puncher Garbrandt has ever faced. He notes that Garbrandt is chinny and Figueiredo has 11 knockdowns at flyweight. Zane expects Figueiredo to be patient and not make reckless mistakes, while Garbrandt will likely back up to the cage and get hit. He predicts a stinky fight but a Figueiredo win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 1 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 1 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 20 of 41 | 48% | 16 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 35 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 17 of 25 | 68% | 9 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 20 of 41 | 48% | 16 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 35 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 17 of 25 | 68% | 9 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Cody Garbrandt, stating he should dominate everywhere, but worries about his chin and tendency to brawl. He notes that if Cody shows patience, he is a confident pick. He is unsure about betting due to chin concerns.
Big Brady picks Brian Kelleher to win by knockout, despite acknowledging Garbrandt is more skilled. He notes Garbrandt's chin issues (4 KO losses) and washed performances, while Kelleher has power and a guillotine threat. Brady believes Kelleher will force exchanges and land a big shot, putting Garbrandt out. He also notes Garbrandt has zero submissions, so a sub win is unlikely.
Cody picks Garbrandt, arguing that he is better in every aspect of martial arts except durability. He notes that Kelleher's only path is a knockout, but Kelleher has only two KO wins in six years. Cody believes Garbrandt will fight smart behind his jab and potentially win by decision or finish. He acknowledges the chin concern but thinks Kelleher is not the guy to exploit it.
Lucrative James picks Brian Kelleher as the underdog. After rewatching Cody Garbrandt's last fight against Trevin Jones, he saw Cody was hesitant, got wobbled, and taken down multiple times. He believes Cody's chin issues could resurface if Kelleher catches him. He acknowledges Kelleher's age (37) and two-fight losing streak but thinks Cody is not a minus 250 fighter.
The host is high on Kelleher as a plus 185 underdog, questioning how Garbrandt can be such a heavy favorite given his recent tentative style and chin issues. He believes Kelleher's aggression, durability, and grappling edge will be key. He expects Kelleher to crash the pocket, land big shots, and possibly finish Garbrandt. The only concern is Kelleher returning from neck surgery, but he thinks even 70% of Kelleher is enough to pull the upset.
Paul picks Garbrandt, stating that skill for skill, this fight is not competitive. He notes that Garbrandt is much faster on the feet and that Kelleher is not a murderous power puncher. Paul points to Garbrandt's last fight against Trevin Jones where he fought smart and stayed out of trouble. He believes Garbrandt will box Kelleher up and potentially win by decision or TKO.
The Guru picks Cody Garbrandt over Brian Kelleher, noting Kelleher's recent losses and decline. He believes the matchup is designed for Garbrandt to get a KO win on a big card. He predicts Garbrandt will win by TKO in the second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 26 of 33 | 78% | 33 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 20 of 69 | 28% | 30 of 79 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 17 of 19 | 89% | 17 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 11 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 3 | Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Trevin Jones | 0 | 11 of 36 | 30% | 17 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 26 of 33 | 78% | 8 of 14 | 14 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Trevin Jones | 20 of 69 | 28% | 9 of 50 | 8 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 15 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 17 of 19 | 89% | 2 of 4 | 11 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trevin Jones | 7 of 24 | 29% | 1 of 13 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cody Garbrandt | 5 of 6 | 83% | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Trevin Jones | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cody Garbrandt | 4 of 8 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Trevin Jones | 11 of 36 | 30% | 8 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
Angelo picks Cody Garbrandt because he is the better fighter everywhere, but he is not betting on him due to his questionable chin. He notes that Garbrandt dominates until he gets hit, and Trevin Jones has real power. Angelo hopes Garbrandt can have a resurgence like Glover Teixeira.
Big Brady picks Cody Garbrandt but is hesitant due to his chin issues. He notes Garbrandt is the much better fighter with speed, volume, and wrestling, but his durability is a major concern. He acknowledges Trevin Jones has power and has never been knocked out. He predicts a decision win for Garbrandt, but admits a knockout loss wouldn't be surprising.
Cody picks Garbrandt but is very hesitant due to his compromised chin. He thinks Garbrandt's wrestling and technical boxing give him the edge, and that Jones's low volume and lack of setup make him less dangerous. He expects Garbrandt to win by decision if he fights smart.
Connor picks Trevin Jones because he doubts Cody Garbrandt's ability to stick to a disciplined, low-risk gameplan. He notes that Garbrandt has never shown he can fight a patient, three-round kickboxing match without getting frustrated and aggressive, which plays into Jones's counter-punching strengths. Connor also points out that Garbrandt's durability has declined, making him vulnerable to getting caught and finished.
Jacob picks Cody Garbrandt as the better fighter but is wary of his chin and tendency to load up. He believes Garbrandt should use a point-fighting strategy and mix in takedowns. Jacob will not bet on Garbrandt and needs to see him prove his chin again.
Garbrandt has a huge technical striking advantage and should be able to beat Jones to the punch. However, his durability is a major concern and Jones has power. Garbrandt likely wins by second round KO or decision, but it's stressful to bet on him as a favorite.
Paul has a small sprinkle on Garbrandt by decision at +500. He thinks Garbrandt's wrestling and smart game plan could lead to a decision win, but acknowledges the chin risk. He says it's a dicey bet and he's prepared to lose.
The MMA Guru picks Trevin Jones as an underdog, citing Garbrandt's inactivity, multiple KO losses, and tendency to get caught. He believes Jones can catch Garbrandt on the chin and win by KO.
Zane also picks Trevin Jones, agreeing with Connor that Garbrandt's mental fragility and tendency to make mistakes under pressure make him unreliable. He emphasizes that Jones is tough, has good timing, and can capitalize on Garbrandt's lapses. Zane notes that while Garbrandt has the tools to win if he fights smart, history suggests he will revert to aggression and get caught.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 2 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 23 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 2 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 23 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 23 of 41 | 56% | 18 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 9 of 17 | 52% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 23 of 41 | 56% | 18 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 9 of 17 | 52% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Cody Garbrandt by knockout, but with very low confidence. He notes that Garbrandt has fought better competition and is the harder hitter, but there are many red flags: Garbrandt is moving down in weight, has durability concerns, and has been knocked out before. Kara-France has good takedown defense and volume, but his chin is questionable. Brady cannot bet this fight due to the uncertainty.
Daniel Levi picks Kai Kara-France for the upset, expressing concerns about Cody Garbrandt's drop to flyweight. He references historical examples like TJ Dillashaw and Figueiredo struggling with the weight cut, and worries about Garbrandt's durability losing 10 pounds. Levi acknowledges Garbrandt's superior competition but believes the speed and output at flyweight will favor Kara-France. He notes Kara-France's one-punch knockout power and training at a great camp. Levi is skeptical about Garbrandt's desperation move to flyweight.
Garbrandt is the much better technical striker and should be able to counter Kara-France's blitzes. However, his durability is a concern, especially at a new weight class. If he stays disciplined and uses footwork, he can win a decision. The weight cut and chin are question marks, so this is a watch-and-see fight.
The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France to win by first-round KO, calling it an upset. He believes Garbrandt's weight cut to flyweight will be detrimental, and his defensive flaws will be exposed. He notes Kara-France's reach advantage and power, predicting he will catch Garbrandt early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Font | 0 | 176 of 365 | 48% | 183 of 374 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 63 of 142 | 44% | 78 of 159 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 3:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Font | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 13 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 2 | Rob Font | 0 | 27 of 55 | 49% | 29 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 12 of 25 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 | |
| 3 | Rob Font | 0 | 32 of 68 | 47% | 35 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 18 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 4 | Rob Font | 0 | 51 of 101 | 50% | 51 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Rob Font | 0 | 45 of 97 | 46% | 45 of 97 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 0 | 15 of 40 | 37% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Font | 176 of 365 | 48% | 145 of 326 | 23 of 29 | 8 of 10 | 168 of 356 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 3 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 63 of 142 | 44% | 45 of 120 | 8 of 11 | 10 of 11 | 51 of 126 | 8 of 11 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Font | 21 of 44 | 47% | 14 of 36 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 13 of 27 | 48% | 9 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Rob Font | 27 of 55 | 49% | 21 of 48 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 8 of 21 | 38% | 5 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rob Font | 32 of 68 | 47% | 26 of 60 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 30 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 15 of 29 | 51% | 13 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Rob Font | 51 of 101 | 50% | 42 of 90 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 51 of 101 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 12 of 25 | 48% | 8 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Rob Font | 45 of 97 | 46% | 42 of 92 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 96 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Garbrandt | 15 of 40 | 37% | 10 of 34 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Rob Font based on Font's higher output (5.21 significant strikes per minute vs 3.33), a six-inch reach advantage, and durability (never knocked out) compared to Cody Garbrandt's three knockout losses. He notes the smaller cage favors Font and that Garbrandt's low-volume style against Assuncao won't work here. He expects a knockout but acknowledges Garbrandt's power could end it.
Cody Saftic picks Rob Font, citing Font's durability, reach advantage (5-6 inches), and ability to mix in leg kicks. He believes Garbrandt's chin is compromised from hard training and past knockouts, and that Font will break him down over time, likely getting a knockout in the second or third round. Saftic notes that Garbrandt fades in later rounds and that Font's takedown defense and comfort on the ground will neutralize any wrestling threat.
Daniel Levi picks Cody Garbrandt, arguing that Garbrandt has more ways to win with his footwork, kicks, and D1 wrestling. He notes that Rob Font has been hurt in fights before (e.g., against Munoz and Assuncao) and that Garbrandt's last win got his confidence back. He believes Garbrandt can beat Font at his own game in boxing and that Font's recent wins over declining opponents don't prove he's ready for the top three.
Matt leans toward Rob Font, citing Font's more versatile eight-limb striking compared to Cody's boxing-heavy approach. He notes Font's six-inch reach advantage and his ability to attack with leg kicks to slow Cody down. However, he acknowledges Cody's speed, power, and crisp boxing, and admits low confidence due to the fight being a pick'em. He predicts Font may finish late, possibly in the third round, but is not confident enough to place a significant bet.
Paul Shaughnessy agrees with Saftic, picking Font. He emphasizes Garbrandt's low output (66 significant strikes in the Cruz fight, 19 against Assuncao) and Font's volume advantage. He notes that Font's reach and jab will cause problems, and that if the fight goes the distance, Font will land significantly more strikes. He also mentions the possibility of betting Font live if he survives the early rounds.
The MMA Guru predicts Rob Font will win by second-round TKO via uppercut. He expects Font to win the first round with his jab at range. In the second round, Garbrandt will become more aggressive and try to slip the jab, but Font will time an uppercut as Garbrandt dips down, putting him down for the finish.
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