vs
+168 -188
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis Next Fight
Age 36
Height 5' 7"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 9"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Darrick Minner
2.63 SLpM
65.0% Str. Acc.
2.28 SApM
35.0% Str. Def.
2.4 TD Avg
72.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
2.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Charles Rosa
3.08 SLpM
36.0% Str. Acc.
3.86 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
1.67 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
38.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Darrick Minner
Moneyline
FanDuel +168
KO/TKO
BetWay +1000
Submission
BetWay +350
Decision
BetWay +400
Charles Rosa
Moneyline
BetWay -188
KO/TKO
BetWay +700
Submission
BetWay +130
Decision
BetWay +400
Darrick Minner - Fight History
TKO (elbows) R1 1:07 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Nov 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 0 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darrick Minner 1 19 of 36 52% 32 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 0 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darrick Minner 1 19 of 36 52% 32 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 5 of 5 100% 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darrick Minner 19 of 36 52% 19 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 15 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 5 of 5 100% 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darrick Minner 19 of 36 52% 19 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 15 of 26
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Angelo picks Nuerdanbieke, impressed by his fight IQ and ability to initiate and control grappling. He notes Minner is better than his record but was outstruck by Ryan Hall, which is embarrassing. He expects Nuerdanbieke to bully forward and control on the mat. He mentions he got the moneyline at -200.

I got money line I got it at minus 200
"I really like shylon to initiate and control the grappling here I think he can bully his way forward control Derek on the mat"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

Big Brady sees Minner as a live dog due to his dangerous submission game and Nuerdanbieke's history of being submitted. He notes Minner's improvements with coach James Krause and his ability to survive submissions (e.g., against Ryan Hall). He predicts Minner will find a first-round submission, though he acknowledges Minner could gas out if it goes longer.

Minner wins by submission in round 1
"I think Minner is a super live dog here I think Nur and Becky has been submitted a ton nerdin Becky has put himself into a lot of bad spots and he is fighting the most dangerous Grappler to date …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

Cody picks Darrick Minner as an underdog, noting his one-dimensional submission game, especially a nasty guillotine. He thinks Minner could catch Nuerdanbieke early in transition, as Nuerdanbieke has shown poor wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu in his UFC debut against Josh Culibao and was taken down by Sean Soriano. Minner's cardio is questionable, but if he doesn't finish in the first round, Cody suggests live betting Nuerdanbieke. He sees Minner as a live underdog who could snatch a submission.

Darrick Minner by submission +350 (considering), under 2.5 rounds
"I will take three straight underdogs maybe just if two of them hit it's gonna be fine for me but um yeah those are like the core of my underdogs on the card I think yeah for the purposes of …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

Connor picks Minner because Nuerdanbieke has six submission losses, four in the first round, and Minner is a fast, opportunistic grappler who capitalizes on mistakes. He acknowledges that if the fight goes past the first round, Nuerdanbieke likely wins, but Minner's early explosiveness and submission threat are decisive. Connor notes that Nuerdanbieke's losses to T.J. Brown and Sean Soriano show he can be broken by aggressive fighters like Minner.

Minner inside the distance +300, Minner wins in round 1 +650
"I'm picking Derek Minner. Because Shailan Nodembeke has six submission losses to in his career, half of four of which have come in the first round."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Daniel Levi picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, citing his strength and top control. He notes that Darrick Minner is dangerous early with submissions but tends to fatigue, and once Shayilan neutralizes those early threats, he can dominate the second and third rounds.

"my pick will be shy Elon here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 31, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

The host sees Minner as sub-round-one-or-bust, with a dangerous submission threat early. He expects Shayilan to survive the early danger, use his strong clinch and grappling to grind Minner down, and win by decision. He notes the line is typical for a fighter with a wider path to victory but warns Minner could catch a desperation guillotine. He passes on betting.

Minner sub round one at +300/+400 as a possible bet
"I'm gonna lean with uh Shai Elon here thinking that he should be able to grind this one out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

Paul is more drawn to the under 2.5 rounds than the moneyline. He notes that Nuerdanbieke has been submitted by nobodies on the Chinese regional scene, and while he survived four submission attempts against TJ Brown, that's not high-level competition. Minner tends to gas if he doesn't get the early finish, but Paul thinks the fight ends inside the distance. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop over the moneyline.

under 2.5 rounds
"I'm more drawn to the under two and a half rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

The MMA Guru picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, citing his weird strength, improved cardio, and methodical style. He notes that Minner has pulled off upsets but against wild opponents, while Nuerdanbieke is technical and low-risk. He predicts a 29-28 decision in a competitive fight, respecting Minner's abilities.

29-28 decision
"I'm going with shailan nordiumbecke here I think he's going to win this fight very clearly... 29-28 in a pretty competitive fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Zane favors Nuerdanbieke because Minner is a first-round finish machine who often gasses if he doesn't get the early stoppage. Nuerdanbieke is durable, pushes a high pace, and has good transitional skills, which should wear Minner down as the fight goes on. Zane notes that Minner's recent decision win over Charles Rosa was more about Rosa's passive style than Minner's improvement, and Nuerdanbieke's aggression will break him.

Minner inside the distance +300, Minner wins in round 1 +650, Nuerdanbieke by TKO/KO +200
"I straight away I'm just favoring Shailan nerd on Bekay because he looks like a guy you would expect to like do way too much early in gas."
LOSS vs Ryan Hall
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Hall 0 40 of 49 81% 163 of 180 0 of 2 0% 7 3 5:37
Darrick Minner 0 26 of 45 57% 56 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 1 4:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Hall 0 5 of 7 71% 33 of 39 0 of 1 0% 2 2 1:40
Darrick Minner 0 15 of 28 53% 20 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:47
2 Ryan Hall 0 17 of 20 85% 73 of 79 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:14
Darrick Minner 0 8 of 13 61% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:37
3 Ryan Hall 0 18 of 22 81% 57 of 62 0 of 0 --- 3 1 3:43
Darrick Minner 0 3 of 4 75% 22 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Hall 40 of 49 81% 22 of 31 18 of 18 0 of 0 7 of 12 1 of 1 32 of 36
Darrick Minner 26 of 45 57% 16 of 33 6 of 7 4 of 5 17 of 31 3 of 3 6 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Hall 5 of 7 71% 1 of 3 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 1
Darrick Minner 15 of 28 53% 7 of 18 4 of 5 4 of 5 11 of 21 3 of 3 1 of 4
2 Ryan Hall 17 of 20 85% 15 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 16
Darrick Minner 8 of 13 61% 6 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 5
3 Ryan Hall 18 of 22 81% 6 of 10 12 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 17 of 19
Darrick Minner 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Hall

Big Brady picks Ryan Hall by submission in the second round, but he is not fully confident. He notes that Minner is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with poor submission defense (8 submission losses) and tends to gas out after the first round. Hall is a phenomenal grappler, but his striking is unorthodox and he looked bad in his last fight. Brady believes Minner will engage in grappling and eventually get caught in a submission as he tires. He recommends staying away from this fight due to its unpredictability.

Hall by submission in round 2
"i'm going to say second round submission for ryan hall here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Hall

Daniel Levi picks Ryan Hall to win by submission, specifically a leg lock. He notes that Darrick Minner is a submission specialist himself but tends to get submitted when he grapples with elite jiu-jitsu practitioners. Levi believes Minner will try to grapple with Hall, which plays into Hall's strength. He also mentions that if the fight stays standing, Hall's unorthodox spin kicks could be effective. Levi is confident Hall will find a submission.

submission, leg lock
"give me ryan hall the uh some kind of leg lock"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darrick Minner

This is a volatile fight. Minner has discipline issues and a questionable gas tank, but if he stays disciplined and counters Hall's unorthodox striking, he can win a decision. Hall's BJJ is a threat, but if he can't get the fight to the ground, he struggles. Minner's path is to avoid submissions and grind out a win, but confidence is low.

"i am ultimately going to go on the derek winner side and say that he stays away from all the unorthodox [ __ ] that reinhard brings to the table here and he goes on to win a very ugly …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Ryan Hall

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Hall to win by submission, specifically a heel hook in the second round. He acknowledges Darrick Minner's capabilities but believes Hall's ground game will be too much. He predicts Minner will eventually end up in Hall's guard, allowing Hall to secure a leg submission.

heel hook submission in second round
"i'm going to go the hill hook finish for ryan hall his his signature move he gets the leg derek minner ends up on top of him ryan hall pulls guard goes for a leg gets the hill hook and …"
LOSS vs Darren Elkins
TKO (punches) R2 3:48 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Jul 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 20 of 30 66% 137 of 154 1 of 2 50% 0 2 3:01
Darrick Minner 0 19 of 35 54% 36 of 55 2 of 2 100% 3 2 4:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 4 of 7 57% 43 of 48 1 of 2 50% 0 1 0:44
Darrick Minner 0 19 of 33 57% 36 of 53 1 of 1 100% 3 2 3:17
2 Darren Elkins 0 16 of 23 69% 94 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:17
Darrick Minner 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 20 of 30 66% 18 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 23
Darrick Minner 19 of 35 54% 14 of 27 4 of 5 1 of 3 5 of 13 4 of 7 10 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 3 1 of 1
Darrick Minner 19 of 33 57% 14 of 25 4 of 5 1 of 3 5 of 12 4 of 7 10 of 14
2 Darren Elkins 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 22
Darrick Minner 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

Angelo picks Darrick Minner because he is the more technical fighter, improving, and has a relentless pace. He expects Minner to take Elkins down and finish with elbows. He likes the under on rounds and the less/less on monkey knife fight, predicting a stoppage. He has Minner in his DraftKings lineup.

under on rounds; less/less on monkey knife fight
"i have derrick minor winning i have derrick minner in my lineup"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks the dog Darren Elkins despite his age (37) and damage taken, because he questions Darrick Minner's cardio after only one fight showing improved stamina. He notes Elkins has not been submitted since 2010 (only loss to Charles Oliveira) and has faced strong grapplers. He expects Minner to have early success but fade, allowing Elkins to finish late. He calls this the hardest fight to call on the card.

Elkins by second round finish (KO or sub)
"i'm gonna side with the dog and darren elkins... i'm going to say that elkins pushes a pace that manor is not going to be able to keep up with"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Cody picks Elkins as a dog, citing his experience against top competition and his wrestling and cardio advantages. He thinks Minner's style is erratic and his cardio is suspect, and that if Minner doesn't get a first-round submission, Elkins will grind him out. He notes Elkins is a larger man and should be able to wrestle him.

"i'm gonna go with jared elkins take a dog pick here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darrick Minner

Daniel Levi picks Darrick Minner to dominate, noting that Minner is in the best part of his career with Krause's coaching, while Elkins' best days are behind him. He expects Minner to control the minutes, possibly via doctor stoppage or clear decision, as Elkins cuts easily and gets taken down. Levi warns about Minner's history of being finished but believes Elkins won't win rounds.

"i think minor can open blood on this guy very early"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

Jacob picks Darrick Minner because he thinks Minner will eventually submit Elkins. He notes that Elkins is tough and has fought top competition, but Minner is younger and improving. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight, expecting a grappling-heavy fight with lots of action. He acknowledges that Elkins is always live but thinks Minner gets the job done.

more/more on monkey knife fight
"minor i think eventually we'll we'll submit them some minutes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darren Elkins

The host picks Darren Elkins, citing his durability, wrestling, and experience. He believes Minner's cardio issues will be exposed as Elkins pressures him. He notes Minner's recent decision win was against a weak opponent and that Elkins has not been submitted in over a decade. He likes Elkins by decision at +290 and also mentions Elkins inside the distance at +350.

Elkins by decision +290; Elkins inside the distance +350; Elkins round three +1700 (sprinkle)
"i do like darren elkins in the spot i'm gonna go uh out as an official pick i'm going to go with elkins by decision at plus 290"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a clear dogger pass. He notes Minner's last win was against Charles Rosa, who was complacent on the ground, and that Elkins will try to get back up. He mentions the only person to submit Elkins is Charles Oliveira. He already bet Elkins at +152.

"that was my first bet of the card i found a uh a plus 152"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

The Guru picks Minner, believing he is underrated and will outscramble Elkins. He criticizes Elkins' recent win over Eduardo Gagori as unimpressive, noting Gagori's padded record. He highlights Minner's wins over Charles Rosa and Terence McKinney, and his competitive grappling with Grant Dawson. He predicts a decision win via outscrambling.

"i'm going to pick him to beat darren elkins and get the job done"
WIN vs Charles Rosa
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darrick Minner 0 15 of 25 60% 40 of 51 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 1 45 of 60 75% 96 of 117 4 of 5 80% 3 0 12:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darrick Minner 0 6 of 11 54% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 0 23 of 35 65% 49 of 66 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:03
2 Darrick Minner 0 2 of 4 50% 9 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 1 15 of 16 93% 32 of 33 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:46
3 Darrick Minner 0 7 of 10 70% 20 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 0 7 of 9 77% 15 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darrick Minner 15 of 25 60% 9 of 17 4 of 4 2 of 4 8 of 17 0 of 0 7 of 8
Charles Rosa 45 of 60 75% 35 of 49 5 of 5 5 of 6 21 of 31 5 of 7 19 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darrick Minner 6 of 11 54% 1 of 4 3 of 3 2 of 4 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 23 of 35 65% 18 of 29 2 of 2 3 of 4 10 of 17 4 of 6 9 of 12
2 Darrick Minner 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 15 of 16 93% 12 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 7 1 of 1 8 of 8
3 Darrick Minner 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 8
Charles Rosa 7 of 9 77% 5 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Charles Rosa

Daniel Levi respects Darrick Minner's 20 first-round submissions and his ability to finish quickly, but notes Charles Rosa has never been submitted and survived deep submission attempts against Yair Rodriguez and Bryce Mitchell. Levi thinks if Minner doesn't get the finish in the first round, Rosa's work rate and kicks will overwhelm Minner in the later rounds. He is hesitant to lay the -200 chalk on Rosa but sees more paths to victory for him.

"if it hits the score cards i think 29 28 rosa if it's a late finish i think rosa if it's an early finish winner so more paths for rosa so i'll take rosa here but i would be a …"
WIN vs T.J. Laramie
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 0:52 · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Sep 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darrick Minner 0 15 of 17 88% 18 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:07
T.J. Laramie 0 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darrick Minner 0 15 of 17 88% 18 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:07
T.J. Laramie 0 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darrick Minner 15 of 17 88% 1 of 3 13 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 4 13 of 13 0 of 0
T.J. Laramie 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darrick Minner 15 of 17 88% 1 of 3 13 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 4 13 of 13 0 of 0
T.J. Laramie 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
T.J. Laramie

Big Brady picks T.J. Laramie because he sees Minner as a first-round submission or bust fighter who tends to gas out. He believes Laramie is the better striker and can keep the fight on the feet to win a decision or find a knockout after Minner fades. He warns that Minner is dangerous in the first round but expects Laramie to stay safe and grind out a win.

Laramie by third-round knockout
"i'm gonna go with laramie here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
T.J. Laramie

The host sees T.J. Laramie as a more well-rounded fighter with superior striking and grappling transitions, while Darrick Minner is a one-round submission threat who fades if he doesn't finish early. He expects Laramie to survive Minner's early attacks and take over in the second round, finishing via TKO. He notes Laramie's experience at the Apex and his training with Cody Stamann as advantages.

T.J. Laramie wins by TKO in round 2
"I expect a TJ Laramie uh second round let's say mid second round uh tko."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (8 days before fight)
T.J. Laramie

The host picks T.J. Laramie over Darrick Minner, noting that Minner survived against Grant Dawson but was dominated, and that Laramie is the next big thing with a good style. He predicts Laramie wins by unanimous decision, as Minner will survive but not win.

"I think he'll get this done by unanimous decision I think Derrick Miller will survive the fight though but I think Laramie will get this done by unanimous decision."
LOSS vs Grant Dawson
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:38 · UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · Feb 29, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Grant Dawson 0 15 of 22 68% 42 of 52 2 of 3 66% 2 0 5:14
Darrick Minner 0 4 of 7 57% 26 of 29 1 of 1 100% 2 1 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Grant Dawson 0 14 of 19 73% 30 of 38 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:59
Darrick Minner 0 4 of 5 80% 21 of 22 1 of 1 100% 2 1 0:25
2 Grant Dawson 0 1 of 3 33% 12 of 14 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:15
Darrick Minner 0 0 of 2 0% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Grant Dawson 15 of 22 68% 14 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 20
Darrick Minner 4 of 7 57% 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Grant Dawson 14 of 19 73% 13 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 13 of 18
Darrick Minner 4 of 5 80% 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Grant Dawson 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2
Darrick Minner 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Grant Dawson vs. Darrick Minner

Round 1
Kicking off the five-fight main card also on ESPN+ is an all-Nebraska bout between a rising prospect Dawson (14-1, 2-0 UFC) against longtime veteran Minner (24-10, 0-0 UFC). The referee for this 149.5-pound catchweight affair as Dawson missed weight and has subsequently forfeited 30 percent of his purse, is Kevin MacDonald. Minner opens up with a heavy leg kick, and then another as he kicks the leg out from beneath his opponent as Dawson flies in the air. Minner pulls guard to set up a guillotine choke, but the submission is not tight, and Dawson is now on top in guard. Minner throws his legs up to keep a high guard and possibly go after a triangle choke, but eats some punches in the process. He snatches up an armbar, but Dawson is crafty to get out of it. The two scramble, and Minner hops on top to pull guard for another guillotine. Dawson survives, but falls victim to the same submission again. Minner hops on top and mounts him with the choke, but Dawson swings his body around to get his neck out. Again, Dawson escapes, and ends up on top in half guard, while Minner throws elbow strikes off his back. Minner the more active fighter of the two, he wraps up the neck and thwarts a guard pass, but Dawson hops over to the other side. Minner tries to keep the neck tight, but Dawson steps over to mount and rain down punches. He throws several that might land to the back of the head, and Minner gives up his back. “KGD” keeps punching, until he fishes for a rear-naked choke and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Minner
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Minner
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Minner

Round 2
A touch of gloves checks in the second round, and Minner throws up a high kick as Dawson comes back with a similar strike. Neither land flush, and Dawson drops down for a takedown. Minner jumps guard to pursue the guillotine choke once more, and Dawson pops his head out and quickly mounts his opponent. Dawson keeps tight pressure before posturing up to land some punches, leading Minner to spin and give up his back.
Dawson latches on quickly to a submission, which looks to be a rear-naked choke on top of the chin. Due to the powerful squeeze, and likely from how little is left in his gas tank, Minner immediately taps.
With the victory, Dawson has now notched his 11th submission across his 15 career wins.

The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Darrick Minner R2 1:38 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Charles Rosa - Fight History
LOSS vs Nathaniel Wood
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 0 97 of 159 61% 102 of 166 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:25
Charles Rosa 0 51 of 167 30% 54 of 170 2 of 9 22% 1 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 0 39 of 62 62% 43 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Charles Rosa 0 25 of 63 39% 25 of 63 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:42
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 31 of 51 60% 31 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Charles Rosa 0 12 of 42 28% 12 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 27 of 46 58% 28 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:07
Charles Rosa 0 14 of 62 22% 17 of 65 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 97 of 159 61% 62 of 111 4 of 13 31 of 35 87 of 144 5 of 7 5 of 8
Charles Rosa 51 of 167 30% 21 of 120 18 of 29 12 of 18 43 of 156 6 of 9 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 39 of 62 62% 27 of 44 3 of 7 9 of 11 38 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 25 of 63 39% 9 of 43 10 of 13 6 of 7 22 of 59 2 of 3 1 of 1
2 Nathaniel Wood 31 of 51 60% 18 of 33 1 of 4 12 of 14 26 of 43 1 of 2 4 of 6
Charles Rosa 12 of 42 28% 6 of 29 2 of 5 4 of 8 11 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 27 of 46 58% 17 of 34 0 of 2 10 of 10 23 of 40 3 of 4 1 of 2
Charles Rosa 14 of 62 22% 6 of 48 6 of 11 2 of 3 10 of 56 3 of 5 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Wood's 75% takedown defense and high volume of strikes, while Charles Rosa is a BJJ specialist who struggles when taken down. He mentions the Casey Kenny loss as a concern but still believes Wood gets it done and will be a parlay piece.

likely parlay piece
"i still think wood gets it done and he is likely a parlay piece so nathaniel wood probably going to be the first leg of one of my parlays"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood to win by decision. He notes Wood is moving up in weight but has a massive speed and volume advantage on the feet. Rosa's path to victory is a submission off his back, but Wood has good takedown defense. Rosa is tough to finish, so Wood wins a decision.

Wood by decision
"give me nathaniel wood nathaniel wood to win by a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Nathaniel Wood, noting he can win wherever the fight goes. He highlights Wood's superior boxing, volume, and footwork. Cody thinks Rosa's only chance is a fluke submission, but Wood's takedown defense and submission defense are solid. He also likes Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"i think nathaniel wood can win the fight however he wants"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel Levi picks Nathaniel Wood, citing a massive speed advantage and excellent leg kicks. He notes that Charles Rosa is slow, hittable, and easy to take down. Levi warns that Wood should avoid getting caught in a submission or cut, but overall sees this as a good introductory fight for Wood at featherweight.

"i think he's got a massive speed advantage here he's got some of the best leg kicks abandoned weight now he's moving up to featherweight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Wood is the better striker and should touch Rosa up from the outside. Rosa is durable and has good submission defense, but Wood can win a decision. The move up to 145 is a concern, but Rosa isn't a grappler who will exploit the size gap. Wood glides to a decision.

"wood will be the pick"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul picks Nathaniel Wood, stating he should cruise. He notes Rosa flops to his back and Wood can box him up. Paul thinks Wood's volume and striking are superior. He also likes Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"nathaniel wood should absolutely cruise here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru confidently picks Nathaniel Wood to win by TKO in the second round. He praises Wood's takedown defense, leg kicks, and speed. Charles Rosa is 35 and hasn't looked good recently. Wood will chop at the legs, stuff takedowns, and eventually brutalize Rosa for a TKO finish.

second round TKO
"i'm gonna go with nathaniel wood getting this one done and i think he gets it done by tko in the second round"
LOSS vs T.J. Brown
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Brown 0 58 of 99 58% 88 of 141 6 of 8 75% 3 2 7:39
Charles Rosa 0 46 of 107 42% 71 of 132 0 of 0 --- 1 1 2:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Brown 0 35 of 67 52% 38 of 70 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:36
Charles Rosa 0 34 of 73 46% 39 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 T.J. Brown 0 16 of 23 69% 29 of 43 1 of 1 100% 2 2 3:34
Charles Rosa 0 9 of 24 37% 24 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:26
3 T.J. Brown 0 7 of 9 77% 21 of 28 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:29
Charles Rosa 0 3 of 10 30% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Brown 58 of 99 58% 46 of 85 10 of 12 2 of 2 49 of 87 2 of 5 7 of 7
Charles Rosa 46 of 107 42% 21 of 76 5 of 10 20 of 21 42 of 99 1 of 2 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Brown 35 of 67 52% 26 of 56 8 of 10 1 of 1 31 of 60 2 of 5 2 of 2
Charles Rosa 34 of 73 46% 14 of 49 5 of 9 15 of 15 34 of 72 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 T.J. Brown 16 of 23 69% 14 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 20 0 of 0 3 of 3
Charles Rosa 9 of 24 37% 4 of 17 0 of 1 5 of 6 7 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 3
3 T.J. Brown 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Charles Rosa 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Big Brady questions T.J. Brown's fight IQ, recalling his poor game plan against Danny Chavez. However, he notes Brown's striking improvements and training at Glory MMA with Bryce Mitchell. He thinks Brown can win if he mixes in takedowns against Benitez's 56% takedown defense, but he cannot trust Brown enough to bet him. He picks Brown as a dog pick but is not confident.

"give me tj brown as far as a dog pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Cody leans toward Brown, citing the blueprint of taking Rosa down and holding him there. He notes Brown's wrestling should be effective. However, he is wary of Brown's low fight IQ and the short notice change. He calls -280 too risky for parlays.

"laying minus 280 on t.j brown it's too much risky risky risky biz man"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Daniel Levi picks T.J. Brown, though he is uncomfortable laying -250. He notes that Brown is better than he has shown, but his chin is questionable and he gets dropped often. However, Levi believes Brown will outwork Charles Rosa, who is on short notice and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Brown's physicality and wrestling will be key, and that Rosa's best days are behind him. Levi expects Brown to win, possibly by finish.

possible finish
"i still am picking him to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)

The host picks Gabriel Benitez, praising his southpaw striking, body kicks, and leg kicks. He expects Benitez to use his technical striking to outwork T.J. Brown, who is more chaotic and less technical. The host notes Brown's power and BJJ but believes Benitez's cardio and striking accuracy will secure a decision. He compares the matchup to Brown's loss to Danny Chavez, where leg kicks were effective.

"i'm gonna go with gabrielle benitez and i'll take him to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Paul leans toward Rosa as a dog, citing his win-loss streak pattern and submission threat. He notes Rosa's takedown defense is poor but Brown's fight IQ is low. He expects Rosa might catch Brown in a submission. He advises waiting for weigh-ins and possibly better odds.

Rosa by submission (if prop becomes available)
"i think it's dog or pass here a hundred percent"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa (Gabriel Benitez) to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Benitez has devastating kicks, especially calf kicks, which will slow Brown down early. Brown has shown problems with kicks in the past (e.g., against Danny Chavez). He expects Benitez to chop at the legs and body, then clip Brown with a big shot when Brown tries to make something happen. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Brown getting dropped with no base.

"i'm gonna trust gabriel benitez to get this one done i think he's just that next step up in competition"
LOSS vs Damon Jackson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 34 of 87 39% 116 of 181 2 of 3 66% 0 1 1:18
Charles Rosa 0 41 of 87 47% 53 of 101 6 of 12 50% 2 3 10:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 22 of 61 36% 30 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 0 19 of 47 40% 24 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:41
2 Damon Jackson 0 8 of 22 36% 27 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Charles Rosa 0 19 of 37 51% 26 of 45 4 of 8 50% 1 1 4:05
3 Damon Jackson 0 4 of 4 100% 59 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:12
Charles Rosa 0 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 1 of 1 100% 1 2 3:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 34 of 87 39% 17 of 66 4 of 8 13 of 13 26 of 76 5 of 8 3 of 3
Charles Rosa 41 of 87 47% 33 of 77 6 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 58 3 of 3 18 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 22 of 61 36% 8 of 46 4 of 5 10 of 10 18 of 55 4 of 6 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 19 of 47 40% 15 of 42 3 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 37 3 of 3 7 of 7
2 Damon Jackson 8 of 22 36% 5 of 16 0 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 19 of 37 51% 15 of 32 3 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 20 0 of 0 9 of 17
3 Damon Jackson 4 of 4 100% 4 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Charles Rosa 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson despite stats favoring Charles Rosa. He likes Jackson's will, determination, and willingness to scrap. He thinks Jackson's fight IQ and grappling can survive Rosa's jiu-jitsu, and his striking could catch Rosa. He also placed a bet on Charles Rosa inside the distance decision no action at plus 125 as a Hail Mary submission play.

Charles Rosa inside the distance decision no action at +125 (0.5 units)
"I did um Charles Rosa inside the distance decision no action. So, Charles Rosa can pull off a submission, I'll get paid. If Charles Rosa loses, a could be a murdering of a decision or even wins a decision, I …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Big Brady picks Damon Jackson, citing Charles Rosa's poor takedown defense and inability to get up. He references Rosa's fights against Bryce Mitchell and Derrick Minor, where they controlled him with takedowns. Brady believes Jackson can implement a similar game plan, taking Rosa down and controlling him for a decision. He notes he would not bet the line at -180/-190, but thinks Jackson can win comfortably via decision.

win by decision
"give me damage jackson to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Cody picks the underdog Rosa, arguing that Jackson's striking is not elite and Rosa's BJJ and counter-striking could be effective. He notes Rosa's durability and ability to win close fights. He believes the line is too wide and Rosa has a live path to victory via decision or submission.

"i'm gonna go with the underdog charles rosa"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Daniel Levi leans toward Charles Rosa as a dog because he views the fight as a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Rosa's ability to survive submissions and make fights close, but acknowledges his tendency to spend too much time on his back. He expects a close, possibly controversial split decision win for Rosa.

split decision
"i'm gonna lean with charles rosa via close maybe controversial split decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jacob leans towards Damon Jackson but is intrigued by Charles Rosa as an underdog at plus 145. He thinks Rosa's grappling is next-level and could cause problems. He expects a close fight and sees Rosa as an interesting underdog play. He would pick Jackson but might bet Rosa.

Charles Rosa at +145 (possible bet)
"I'm kind of leaning towards Rosa for a betting at 145 cuz I think it's a pretty close fight. But if I were to pick, it would probably be Jackson."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

The host picks Damon Jackson, citing his superior grappling and pressure. He notes Jackson's excellent cardio and ability to control opponents, while Rosa has good submission defense but may be outgrappled. He predicts a decision win for Jackson, which would be only the second decision of Jackson's career, due to Rosa's durability.

"I do like damon jackson in this fight i do think he has great cardio i do think he has the better jits"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Jackson, citing his better striking and pressure. He notes Rosa's tendency to flop to his back and lack of a striking game plan. He believes Jackson can win on the feet and avoid Rosa's submission threats, though he admits it's not a high-confidence pick.

"damon jackson is the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Damon Jackson to win by unanimous decision. He trusts Jackson's defensive grappling and guillotine threats to keep the fight standing, where Jackson has a significant advantage in striking and reach. He dismisses Rosa's striking as poor.

Jackson by unanimous decision
"i'm gonna go with uh damon jackson here over charles roser... i feel like damon jackson wins this one on the feet and i think he wins it by a very lackluster unanimous decision win"
WIN vs Justin Jaynes
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Rosa 0 51 of 182 28% 114 of 258 2 of 2 100% 2 1 3:37
Justin Jaynes 0 44 of 92 47% 51 of 101 2 of 2 100% 2 3 2:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Rosa 0 35 of 119 29% 36 of 121 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Justin Jaynes 0 19 of 41 46% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:05
2 Charles Rosa 0 3 of 15 20% 57 of 78 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:21
Justin Jaynes 0 6 of 12 50% 10 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 2 1:16
3 Charles Rosa 0 13 of 48 27% 21 of 59 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:49
Justin Jaynes 0 19 of 39 48% 22 of 43 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Rosa 51 of 182 28% 33 of 156 8 of 15 10 of 11 47 of 173 0 of 0 4 of 9
Justin Jaynes 44 of 92 47% 32 of 79 9 of 9 3 of 4 42 of 89 2 of 2 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Rosa 35 of 119 29% 22 of 101 5 of 9 8 of 9 34 of 116 0 of 0 1 of 3
Justin Jaynes 19 of 41 46% 13 of 34 3 of 3 3 of 4 19 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Charles Rosa 3 of 15 20% 1 of 12 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 2
Justin Jaynes 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 1
3 Charles Rosa 13 of 48 27% 10 of 43 3 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 44 0 of 0 2 of 4
Justin Jaynes 19 of 39 48% 14 of 34 5 of 5 0 of 0 18 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Angelo picks Charles Rosa, believing Rosa's jiu-jitsu is fantastic and that he can avoid Jaynes's early storm and take over in later rounds. He notes that Jaynes is not Derrick Minner and that styles make fights. However, he admits he is not confident enough to place a bet on it.

"i think charles rose has the pick here at least for me uh i don't have a bet on it i'm not that confident but i do think charles rose wins this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Big Brady picks Charles Rosa to win by third round submission, citing Jaynes's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Rosa's durability (only one KO loss) and well-rounded skills, while Jaynes is a one-round fighter with 33% takedown defense. He expects Rosa to weather the early storm and take over as Jaynes gasses.

by submission, third round
"i'm going to take charles rosa to win by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Cody picks Rosa, noting that Jaynes has zero takedown accuracy and is a brawler who fades. Rosa's takedown defense is a liability, but Jaynes doesn't wrestle. Rosa's striking and cardio should allow him to outwork Jaynes. Cody thinks Rosa is untrustworthy but the style matchup favors him. He notes Rosa is coming off a loss, which historically makes him more reliable.

"i gotta make the play on a few of them and i think that styles make fights i've always said that this is this is a style clash that would favor him for a change"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Jacob picks Charles Rosa by submission or decision, noting that Rosa always gets submissions or loses decisions. He thinks Jaynes will try to wrestle, which will be a mistake, and Rosa will find a submission. Jacob is not confident enough to put Rosa in his lineup at 8600 but believes Rosa wins.

"yeah so i have charles rosa listed as submission or decision because it seems like he always gets submissions or he loses decisions"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Rosa is my lock of the night. Jaynes is not UFC caliber and has no defense. Rosa has durability, striking technique, and can take Jaynes down. He should invest in body shots early to slow Jaynes down, then find a submission in the second round. Rosa's only kryptonite is being ground out, but Jaynes can't do that. Rosa should be a much bigger favorite.

Rosa by submission plus 210; Rosa inside the distance plus 145; under 2.5 rounds minus 125
"Charles rosa is actually my locker then i played for this week... I truly believe that justin james is not a ufc caliber fighter"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Paul picks Rosa but lost trust after his loss to Minor. He notes Rosa's pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rosa should stick to grappling and avoid brawling. He acknowledges Jaynes' power but thinks Rosa's experience and durability will carry him.

"i'll pick charles rosa but uh losing against men or he uh he lost my trust"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Justin Jaynes

The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes as a big upset, citing his ferocity and early-round finishing ability. He criticizes Charles Rosa's striking defense and believes Jaynes will expose those holes, predicting a first-round KO. He notes Rosa's decline after his Shane Burgos fight and considers Jaynes the fresher fighter at 31.

first round KO
"i think he's gonna crack charles rosa on the chin and i'm gonna go with justin james with a big upset"
LOSS vs Darrick Minner
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darrick Minner 0 15 of 25 60% 40 of 51 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 1 45 of 60 75% 96 of 117 4 of 5 80% 3 0 12:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darrick Minner 0 6 of 11 54% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 0 23 of 35 65% 49 of 66 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:03
2 Darrick Minner 0 2 of 4 50% 9 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 1 15 of 16 93% 32 of 33 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:46
3 Darrick Minner 0 7 of 10 70% 20 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 0 7 of 9 77% 15 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darrick Minner 15 of 25 60% 9 of 17 4 of 4 2 of 4 8 of 17 0 of 0 7 of 8
Charles Rosa 45 of 60 75% 35 of 49 5 of 5 5 of 6 21 of 31 5 of 7 19 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darrick Minner 6 of 11 54% 1 of 4 3 of 3 2 of 4 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 23 of 35 65% 18 of 29 2 of 2 3 of 4 10 of 17 4 of 6 9 of 12
2 Darrick Minner 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 15 of 16 93% 12 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 7 1 of 1 8 of 8
3 Darrick Minner 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 8
Charles Rosa 7 of 9 77% 5 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Charles Rosa

Daniel Levi respects Darrick Minner's 20 first-round submissions and his ability to finish quickly, but notes Charles Rosa has never been submitted and survived deep submission attempts against Yair Rodriguez and Bryce Mitchell. Levi thinks if Minner doesn't get the finish in the first round, Rosa's work rate and kicks will overwhelm Minner in the later rounds. He is hesitant to lay the -200 chalk on Rosa but sees more paths to victory for him.

"if it hits the score cards i think 29 28 rosa if it's a late finish i think rosa if it's an early finish winner so more paths for rosa so i'll take rosa here but i would be a …"
WIN vs Kevin Aguilar
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Eye vs. Calvillo · Jun 13, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Rosa 0 69 of 173 39% 69 of 173 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 53 of 135 39% 53 of 135 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Rosa 0 20 of 56 35% 20 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 14 of 37 37% 14 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Charles Rosa 0 22 of 50 44% 22 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 17 of 39 43% 17 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Charles Rosa 0 27 of 67 40% 27 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 22 of 59 37% 22 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Rosa 69 of 173 39% 33 of 119 15 of 26 21 of 28 69 of 173 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 53 of 135 39% 34 of 109 17 of 22 2 of 4 50 of 130 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Rosa 20 of 56 35% 5 of 34 5 of 9 10 of 13 20 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 14 of 37 37% 10 of 29 4 of 7 0 of 1 11 of 32 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Charles Rosa 22 of 50 44% 10 of 30 6 of 11 6 of 9 22 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 17 of 39 43% 11 of 31 5 of 6 1 of 2 17 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Charles Rosa 27 of 67 40% 18 of 55 4 of 6 5 of 6 27 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 22 of 59 37% 13 of 49 8 of 9 1 of 1 22 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa, noting that he shouldn't be judged by his loss to Bryce Mitchell. He highlights Rosa's jiu-jitsu and striking, recalling that Rosa out-struck Shane Burgos in their fight. He believes Rosa will finish Aguilar by head kick, as Aguilar is coming off a KO loss and a short turnaround.

Rosa wins by KO (head kick)
"Charles Rosa was beating shame Burgos on the feet. He's a jujitsu guy, he was clearly out striking Shane Burgos."
LOSS vs Bryce Mitchell
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–24) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 40 of 49 81% 60 of 74 3 of 3 100% 5 0 12:51
Charles Rosa 0 5 of 10 50% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 11 of 13 84% 12 of 14 1 of 1 100% 3 0 3:22
Charles Rosa 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 17 of 21 80% 28 of 32 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:37
Charles Rosa 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 12 of 15 80% 20 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:52
Charles Rosa 0 1 of 5 20% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 40 of 49 81% 27 of 36 13 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 40 of 46
Charles Rosa 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 11 of 13 84% 8 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 12
Charles Rosa 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Bryce Mitchell 17 of 21 80% 12 of 16 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 20
Charles Rosa 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Bryce Mitchell 12 of 15 80% 7 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 14
Charles Rosa 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Rosa vs. Bryce Mitchell

Round 1
Dropping down to the featherweight division, we are treated to a matchup between two solid prospects in American Top Team’s Rosa (12-3, 3-3 UFC) and the undefeated Mitchell (12-0, 3-0 UFC). Our referee for this bout is Keith Peterson, and uncharacteristically he is allowing some nonsense by not wearing a mask. The two elect not to touch gloves to kick off their match, and Mitchell immediately stalks Rosa down against the fence. Rosa tries to keep away and throw kicks, but Mitchell is unconcerned and hits a quick single leg takedown. Mitchell ties up the legs to keep Rosa grounded, and Mitchell circles around to take the back. Rosa spins out but is immediately is in the danger zone. Mitchell sets up an arm-triangle choke, and Rosa’s head is changing colors rapidly and thinks about tapping. Rosa continues to flail and almost taps again, but somehow manages to pull his head free. Mitchell is on him like glue, taking the back before hunting for an arm-triangle choke again. Rosa throws his legs up to hunt for an inverted triangle choke, and Mitchell is unconcerned as he spins free. The ensuing exchange miraculously leads to Mitchell setting up a twister, and the commentary booth is losing it. Rosa struggles, turns and tries to survive, and manages to get out for a moment, only to give it up again. In an impressive showing of submission defense, Rosa pulls his body out but surrenders another arm-triangle choke. This time, it’s tight, and Mitchell squeezes with all he has. Rosa’s head turns red quickly once more, but he powers free and remains on his back. Mitchell tries to set up one last submission, but the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell

Round 2
Rosa opens the round with a few head kicks, and keep Mitchell at bay for a few seconds. “Thug Nasty” gathers his thoughts and shoots in for a takedown, and immediately passes guard and takes three-quarter mount. Rosa is unable to get any offense going as Mitchell nullifies him, and gives up mount as Mitchell tries to set up another arm-triangle. While Mitchell continues to style on Rosa, the commentary booth ponders the true location of Fight Island -- none of them know. Mitchell drops down a few heavy elbows and punches on top, and Rosa uses that aggression against his opponent to pull for a leglock. Mitchell practically ignores it, before stepping back to mount. He steps over to get an arm-triangle choke, and Rosa stays calm and defends it well enough before Mitchell bails to return to mount. Rosa turns over, and Mitchell thinks about taking his back before setting up another twister. This is unquestionably the record for the most twister attempts in a UFC fight before, and this time it’s tight as a drum. Unfortunately for Mitchell, the horn sounds before he can get the tap, but this is all one-way traffic from “Thug Nasty.”

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell

Round 3
Within 15 seconds, Mitchell dives into a takedown and incredibly sets up another twister. Rosa locks his arm up to hold on tight, but Mitchell pulls on the right arm of Rosa to twist him the other direction. Rosa pushes with all his might to get free, and while he gets out of the bad situation, he is still grounded. “Boston Strong” tries to set up a guillotine off his back, and Mitchell thinks about going after a Von Preux choke until thinking about the arm-triangle choke again. The unbeaten fighter chains submission together one after the other, and props to Rosa for surviving, but it is total domination. Rosa gives up his back, defends a choke and rolls back over. Ever vigilant, Mitchell returns to mount before hunting for the arm-triangle once more. Rosa is cursing out Mitchell for “laying on me” but is not showing the defense to get out of harm’s way. Mitchell takes a high mount and thinks about blasting him with a few shots on top, but Rosa rolls out just in time. Mitchell hops out, turns around and dives back in to secure top position. Mitchell rolls through a crucifix, hammers down a few elbows, takes top position with Rosa’s feet trying to kick off the cage. He successfully does so with seconds to spare, but he is spent -- Mitchell crashes forward to strike him and clinch up, but the round, and fight, is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-24 Mitchell)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)

The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Charles Rosa via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-25, 30-24)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Big Brady picks Bryce Mitchell, citing his youth, size, and overall superiority on the ground and feet. He downplays Rosa's submission win over Manny Bermudez, calling Bermudez a fraud. He thinks the line at minus 175 is a bit wide and sees little value but still expects Mitchell to win.

Mitchell minus 175; line is a little wide
"I actually like Bryce Mitchell quite a bit here. Uh he's the younger fighter. He's the bigger fighter. I think he's really going to give problems to Rosa um on the ground and on the feet."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Daniel Levi slightly leans towards Bryce Mitchell, citing his athleticism and youth. He notes that Mitchell has holes in his game and may fatigue, but Rosa is a finished product who isn't getting better. Levi thinks Mitchell can get the job done by being younger and fresher, possibly with a late finish.

Mitchell by late finish
"I'll slightly lean with Bryce Mitchell because of the athleticism the youth and things among those lines but it would not surprise me at all if Rosa came out here and got the upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Matt initially considered Mitchell as a lock but after tape review, he favors Rosa as a live dog. He highlights Rosa's leg kicks, offensive guard, and ability to keep the fight standing, while questioning Mitchell's striking development and the impact of training camps during the pandemic. He picks Rosa by decision.

"I think that Charles Rosa definitely is a live dog... I'm going to say Charles Rosa by decision"
Verbal Submission (armbar) R1 2:46 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman · Oct 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Rosa 0 6 of 8 75% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Manny Bermudez 0 27 of 38 71% 37 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Rosa 0 6 of 8 75% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Manny Bermudez 0 27 of 38 71% 37 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Rosa 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manny Bermudez 27 of 38 71% 25 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 1 26 of 32
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Rosa 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manny Bermudez 27 of 38 71% 25 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 1 26 of 32
Expert Picks (1)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Charles Rosa

Daniel Levi respects Darrick Minner's 20 first-round submissions and his ability to finish quickly, but notes Charles Rosa has never been submitted and survived deep submission attempts against Yair Rodriguez and Bryce Mitchell. Levi thinks if Minner doesn't get the finish in the first round, Rosa's work rate and kicks will overwhelm Minner in the later rounds. He is hesitant to lay the -200 chalk on Rosa but sees more paths to victory for him.

"if it hits the score cards i think 29 28 rosa if it's a late finish i think rosa if it's an early finish winner so more paths for rosa so i'll take rosa here but i would be a little hesitant to lay this kind of chalk on a …"