UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021 · Catchweight (138 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis Next Fight
Age 36
Height 5' 6"
Reach 68"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 5' 8"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Yana Kunitskaya
4.41 SLpM
57.0% Str. Acc.
3.12 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.78 TD Avg
47.0% TD Acc.
51.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Ketlen Vieira
2.76 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
3.75 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
1.33 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
90.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Yana Kunitskaya
Moneyline
FanDuel +245
KO/TKO
BetWay +1000
Submission
BetWay +1400
Decision
BetWay +320
Ketlen Vieira
Moneyline
BetWay -275
KO/TKO
BetWay +650
Submission
BetWay +400
Decision
BetWay -118
Yana Kunitskaya - Fight History
LOSS vs Irene Aldana
TKO (punches) R1 4:35 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Irene Aldana 1 37 of 66 56% 37 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:24
Yana Kunitskaya 0 24 of 49 48% 30 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Irene Aldana 1 37 of 66 56% 37 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:24
Yana Kunitskaya 0 24 of 49 48% 30 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Irene Aldana 37 of 66 56% 28 of 53 6 of 10 3 of 3 13 of 29 3 of 4 21 of 33
Yana Kunitskaya 24 of 49 48% 8 of 28 9 of 12 7 of 9 18 of 41 6 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Irene Aldana 37 of 66 56% 28 of 53 6 of 10 3 of 3 13 of 29 3 of 4 21 of 33
Yana Kunitskaya 24 of 49 48% 8 of 28 9 of 12 7 of 9 18 of 41 6 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Yana Kunitskaya

Angelo picks Kunitskaya as an underdog, citing her well-roundedness. He notes Aldana is a pure boxer with power but only one way to win, while Kunitskaya has striking diversity, wrestling, and better cardio. He has a moneyline bet on Kunitskaya and is confident in her winning.

Moneyline bet on Kunitskaya
"i have kuniskaya winning this fight i have a money line bet on kunix guy i'm very confident"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Yana Kunitskaya

Big Brady picks Yana Kunitskaya to win by decision. He notes that Yana is more well-rounded, has a better resume, and can mix in takedowns. He points out that Aldana's takedown defense (84%) may be inflated due to weak competition. He is concerned about Yana being finished in four of her five losses, but thinks if Yana takes it to the scorecards, she can win. He calls it a close fight, a coin flip.

"i'll take yana to win i'll take yon to win by decision but hard to be overly confident in it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Yana Kunitskaya

Cody leans toward Kunitskaya as a slight underdog. He notes her clinch strength, durability, and improvement at American Top Team. He thinks she can neutralize Aldana's striking with grappling and cage control. He acknowledges Aldana's striking advantage but believes Kunitskaya's grappling will be the difference.

"i guess i would go with that slight underdog edge on januz kunikaya"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Yana Kunitskaya

Daniel Levi picks Yana Kunitskaya as the underdog. He argues that Irene Aldana gets hit too much, absorbing over 100 strikes in multiple fights, and that she doesn't shoot takedowns, so the fight will stay standing. He believes Kunitskaya has good striking and can take advantage of Aldana's poor defense. He calls it a pick-em fight and likes getting plus money on Kunitskaya.

"i gotta go with yana kunitskaya to come out here and get this decision win for the upset"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Irene Aldana

Jacob picks Aldana using MMA math, noting that both Aldana and Kunitskaya beat Ketlen Vieira, but Aldana did it by KO while Kunitskaya won a decision. He acknowledges Angelo's criticism of MMA math but sticks with his pick. He seems less confident and admits it's a random pick.

"i was gonna go with yana until you and yana i'm going without donna"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Yana Kunitskaya

I'm going with Kunitskaya by decision. This is a striker vs grappler matchup, and I trust Kunitskaya to land takedowns and control Aldana. Aldana gave up five takedowns to Holly Holm, and Kunitskaya is a better wrestler. I expect Kunitskaya to grind out a decision, similar to her fight against Lina Lansberg. No real conviction, but I like the grappler here.

"i'm taking queen skye by decision again no real no real conviction in terms of breaking down this fight even further than that it's pretty as simple as that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul has no clear pick. He discusses the grappling vs striking dynamic but finds it too risky. He notes the big cage favors Aldana but Kunitskaya's grappling could be effective. He calls it a pass.

"this is probably a pat this is a pass as far as i'm concerned"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Irene Aldana

The Guru picks Aldana by 30-27 unanimous decision. He believes Aldana's size and weight advantage will prevent Kunitskaya from taking her down, and her standup is far more educated. He expects Kunitskaya to wade forward looking for a clinch, while Aldana lands jabs, straight rights, and volume all fight long. The Guru thinks Kunitskaya will not look like she belongs in there, and Aldana will have a field day defending takedowns and landing punches.

"i think irene aldana is going to win this one i'll say 30 27 i think she's too big to be taken down by yanukonetskaya and i think her standup is just way more educated"
WIN vs Ketlen Vieira
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yana Kunitskaya 0 7 of 16 43% 35 of 51 3 of 8 37% 0 0 8:38
Ketlen Vieira 0 47 of 60 78% 215 of 247 0 of 0 --- 0 0 5:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yana Kunitskaya 0 6 of 10 60% 17 of 24 2 of 4 50% 0 0 4:19
Ketlen Vieira 0 18 of 18 100% 80 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
2 Yana Kunitskaya 0 1 of 6 16% 9 of 14 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:05
Ketlen Vieira 0 22 of 31 70% 80 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:18
3 Yana Kunitskaya 0 0 of 0 --- 9 of 13 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:14
Ketlen Vieira 0 7 of 11 63% 55 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yana Kunitskaya 7 of 16 43% 3 of 10 3 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 11 4 of 5 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 47 of 60 78% 7 of 15 30 of 35 10 of 10 8 of 11 21 of 24 18 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yana Kunitskaya 6 of 10 60% 2 of 5 3 of 3 1 of 2 2 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 18 of 18 100% 3 of 3 14 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1 14 of 14 3 of 3
2 Yana Kunitskaya 1 of 6 16% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 22 of 31 70% 3 of 7 13 of 18 6 of 6 3 of 5 7 of 10 12 of 16
3 Yana Kunitskaya 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 7 of 11 63% 1 of 5 3 of 3 3 of 3 4 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ketlen Vieira (138: Missed Weight) vs. Yana Kunitskaya

Round 1
Our co-main event comes in a catchweight, after Vieira (11-1, 5-1 UFC) missed weight by two pounds before taking on “Foxy” Kunitskaya (13-5, 1 NC; 3-2 UFC) in what should have been at bantamweight. The women will be joined in the Octagon by referee Jason Herzog, and there is a sign of respect shown between the two as they touch gloves. Vieira comes out firing, throwing punches straight into a takedown attempt. Kunitskaya greets her with a knee up the middle as she stops the takedown, and the Brazilian redoubles her efforts to drag the fight down the canvas early. Vieira lands a few strikes up close, and a trip attempt turns into an arm drag that puts Kunitskaya on her backside against the cage wall. The Russian fighter wall-walks back to her knees and then standing, before getting off several short knees in the clinch. Kunitskaya is content to throw strikes in the close proximity, and Vieira twists to go for a throw but cannot get the fight where she wants it. Kunitskaya turns her around as she starts to work more knees, and when she lifts one high, Vieira hits a takedown as she pushes Kunitskaya in the center of the cage. The Brazilian climbs over into half guard, where she forces Kunitskaya to scramble and nearly give up her back. Vieira hops over to acquire mount, but at the last second, Kunitskaya pulls her back out. Vieira is a woman possessed in seeking out this position, and she manages to take mount for seconds before Kunitskaya recovers position. Vieira keeps heavy shoulder pressure to keep Kunitskaya flat on her back, and only takes short punches while advancing back into mount. Kunitskaya is forced to defend with inaccurate punches, and she locks down Vieira’s leg to keep her in the half guard, but is unable to recover any better position. Vieira postures up to start landing strikes, and Kunitskaya drags her back down while introducing an elbow to the nose of her opponent. The round ends in this top position for Vieira.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 2
There is a glove touch to begin this round, and Kunitskaya lands a heavy kick to the knee that makes Vieira recoil her leg. Kunitskaya puts a combination together, and Vieira does not want to bother with standing strikes so she ties the fight up in the clinch. This time, Kunitskaya is the one leading the dance as she stuffs a takedown, and she works a few clinch strikes before turning a Vieira trip attempt into a takedown of her own. Vieira maintains a close guard while Kunitskaya works the body from above, and Vieira throws her legs up quickly to pursue any sort of submission or sweep she can locate. Vieira fishes for an omoplata to get out of this precarious position, and she rolls through for an armbar, but the Russian sees it and stops it from happening. Kunitskaya fights off Vieira’s offensive guard, but Vieira inches her legs up to get a triangle choke started. Kunitskaya pushes the legs down and lands sporadic punches from above, but any explosive strikes are halted when Vieira attacks some form of submission. When Kunitskaya sits up, Vieira is ready to throw up an armbar, so Kunitskaya stays heavy and punches through it. Vieira keeps turning into a leglock position, and she locks on to a heel hook as Kunitskaya climbs to her knees. Vieira uses this maneuver to stand back up, and Kunitskaya is ready to bully her back into the cage wall. Kunitskaya scores several short knees in the clinch until Vieira goes for a trip, and Kunitskaya stops it from succeeding again and even takes Vieira’s back standing up. Kunitskaya knees the thigh and punches the body, so Vieira drags the fight down and falls down while searching for a kimura. Kunitskaya knees the body several times, and she drops down some dramatic elbows to the side. When Vieira muscles back up, Kunitskaya slings a head kick at her. The two separate, and the round ends while Kunitskaya is going for another.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kunitskaya
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Kunitskaya
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kunitskaya

Round 3
The glove touch opens the final round, and Kunitskaya starts kicking from a distance while Vieira looks to gather herself. The Brazilian shoots in for a double leg takedown, and Kunitskaya falls to her back as she considers a guillotine choke, but there is nothing there. Vieira climbs easily over to half guard and nearly secures mount, only to be content briefly in three-quarter mount. The position is what Vieira is after instead of doing damage, as she has not thrown a great deal of strikes whenever she gains the advantage on the ground. From the other side, Vieira looks for an arm-triangle choke, and the cage wall is preventing Vieira from stepping over to lock it up. As Kunitskaya tries to buck the position, Vieira takes mount. The Russian rolls to her side and pulls Vieira back to half guard, only for Vieira to tie up an arm-triangle choke again that allows her to step into mount. Kunitskaya rolls and gives up her back, but she keeps Vieira trapped against the wire so that the Brazilian cannot gain leverage for a choke. As Kunitskaya continues to turn any was she can, she cannot free herself from back control. Vieira fishes her arm under Kunitskaya’s chin but there is not enough room for a choke, and all the while, Kunitskaya smacks her in the face with her left hand. Kunitskaya throws wildly and gives up her neck, and Vieira sees the opportunity to take the choke. The Russian fights the choke off, and she explodes out of the position to twist into top position. Kunitskaya starts slamming her fists and elbows into Vieira’s head, and she finishes the round in style doing some damage with top strikes. A few elbows slash a major cut open on the top corner of Vieira’s forehead, and the blood starts flowing immediately. Kunitskaya concludes the fight on top, desperately trying to turn the tables and force a finish. Time expires before she can get it, but Vieira is busted up and swelling fast.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)

The Official Result
Yana Kunitskaya def. Ketlen Vieira via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Daniel Levi highlights Ketlen Vieira's black belts in jiu-jitsu and judo, and her ability to trip and control opponents on the ground. He notes Yana Kunitskaya's chin issues, recalling she was dropped by Aspen Ladd and had her face bloodied against Miranda. Levi believes Vieira is the better fighter across the board and expects her to win by decision or submission, though he acknowledges Kunitskaya can score points on the feet.

"I'm going with caitlyn vieira to win this fight bottom line either decision or submission"
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · Aug 08, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yana Kunitskaya 0 43 of 57 75% 209 of 254 1 of 2 50% 0 0 13:16
Julija Stoliarenko 0 6 of 26 23% 30 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yana Kunitskaya 0 8 of 12 66% 64 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:22
Julija Stoliarenko 0 2 of 8 25% 18 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
2 Yana Kunitskaya 0 23 of 26 88% 92 of 108 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:44
Julija Stoliarenko 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Yana Kunitskaya 0 12 of 19 63% 53 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:10
Julija Stoliarenko 0 3 of 16 18% 10 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yana Kunitskaya 43 of 57 75% 20 of 34 20 of 20 3 of 3 8 of 19 29 of 32 6 of 6
Julija Stoliarenko 6 of 26 23% 5 of 23 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 23 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yana Kunitskaya 8 of 12 66% 3 of 7 4 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 4 7 of 8 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 2 of 8 25% 2 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Yana Kunitskaya 23 of 26 88% 11 of 14 10 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 1 18 of 20 5 of 5
Julija Stoliarenko 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Yana Kunitskaya 12 of 19 63% 6 of 13 6 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 14 4 of 4 1 of 1
Julija Stoliarenko 3 of 16 18% 2 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Yana Kunitskaya

Big Brady picks Kunitskaya but is not confident enough to bet her. He believes she is the better striker and can win by staying off the ground, but worries she might take Stoliarenko down, which plays into Stoliarenko's submission game. He compares it to the Balbina vs Jojua fight where a similar mistake led to a loss. He predicts a decision win for Kunitskaya.

"i'm assuming kunsa kaya is smart enough to not do that but at this point we just don't know with women's mma so uh kunzakaya by decision but you know big big big pass um from a betting perspective there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Daniel Levi picks Julija Stoliarenko to win by submission, specifically an armbar. He acknowledges that Yana Kunitskaya is the better fighter overall but believes she is prone to getting submitted, as seen in her past fights. Levi notes that Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist with many first-round finishes, and he expects her to pull guard and secure the submission at some point during the fight.

submission by armbar
"i'm actually going to go with the upset i think that julia stoliarenko gets a fluke arm bar"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Yana Kunitskaya

Kunitskaya is technically superior with good kickboxing and range control. However, she struggles in the pocket and can be pressured. Stoliarenko is a brawler with devastating elbows and a dangerous armbar from the clinch. The line at -235 is too wide; Stoliarenko offers value at +200. Kunitskaya likely wins by decision if she keeps it at range, but Stoliarenko could finish.

Stoliarenko moneyline +200, Stoliarenko inside distance
"I'm going to take Kunitskaya to win by decision but the value side by far is Julia here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Yana Kunitskaya

The MMA Guru picks Yana Kunitskaya because she has good clinch control and can hold opponents against the cage, as seen in her fight with Aspen Ladd. He notes that Julija Stoliarenko is taking the fight on short notice and went to a split decision against a lesser opponent. He believes Kunitskaya's clinch work will be the difference.

"i believe that yana kunitskaya is going to win this one julia stoliorenko has beaten some good girls outside the ufc but went to a split decision"
LOSS vs Aspen Ladd
TKO (punches) R3 0:33 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · Dec 07, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aspen Ladd 1 47 of 85 55% 85 of 137 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:08
Yana Kunitskaya 0 47 of 81 58% 92 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aspen Ladd 0 11 of 20 55% 38 of 58 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:55
Yana Kunitskaya 0 15 of 24 62% 37 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:23
2 Aspen Ladd 0 21 of 44 47% 23 of 47 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:44
Yana Kunitskaya 0 31 of 55 56% 54 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
3 Aspen Ladd 1 15 of 21 71% 24 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Yana Kunitskaya 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aspen Ladd 47 of 85 55% 40 of 77 7 of 8 0 of 0 20 of 48 2 of 5 25 of 32
Yana Kunitskaya 47 of 81 58% 10 of 38 28 of 31 9 of 12 21 of 48 26 of 32 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aspen Ladd 11 of 20 55% 9 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 11 2 of 3 5 of 6
Yana Kunitskaya 15 of 24 62% 2 of 7 12 of 15 1 of 2 4 of 8 11 of 16 0 of 0
2 Aspen Ladd 21 of 44 47% 17 of 39 4 of 5 0 of 0 15 of 35 0 of 2 6 of 7
Yana Kunitskaya 31 of 55 56% 7 of 29 16 of 16 8 of 10 16 of 39 15 of 16 0 of 0
3 Aspen Ladd 15 of 21 71% 14 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 19
Yana Kunitskaya 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1
WIN vs Marion Reneau
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos · Mar 09, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yana Kunitskaya 0 58 of 142 40% 64 of 148 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Marion Reneau 0 98 of 223 43% 113 of 239 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yana Kunitskaya 0 13 of 27 48% 18 of 32 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Marion Reneau 0 29 of 51 56% 42 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:28
2 Yana Kunitskaya 0 18 of 45 40% 18 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marion Reneau 0 40 of 76 52% 42 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
3 Yana Kunitskaya 0 27 of 70 38% 28 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marion Reneau 0 29 of 96 30% 29 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yana Kunitskaya 58 of 142 40% 42 of 121 10 of 14 6 of 7 54 of 133 2 of 3 2 of 6
Marion Reneau 98 of 223 43% 35 of 138 27 of 40 36 of 45 78 of 197 19 of 23 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yana Kunitskaya 13 of 27 48% 10 of 23 1 of 1 2 of 3 9 of 18 2 of 3 2 of 6
Marion Reneau 29 of 51 56% 9 of 24 12 of 17 8 of 10 16 of 34 12 of 14 1 of 3
2 Yana Kunitskaya 18 of 45 40% 12 of 37 3 of 5 3 of 3 18 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marion Reneau 40 of 76 52% 14 of 43 12 of 15 14 of 18 33 of 68 7 of 8 0 of 0
3 Yana Kunitskaya 27 of 70 38% 20 of 61 6 of 8 1 of 1 27 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marion Reneau 29 of 96 30% 12 of 71 3 of 8 14 of 17 29 of 95 0 of 1 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · Oct 06, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yana Kunitskaya 0 43 of 87 49% 61 of 109 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:18
Lina Länsberg 0 72 of 111 64% 159 of 208 5 of 8 62% 1 0 9:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yana Kunitskaya 0 3 of 7 42% 8 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Lina Länsberg 0 13 of 20 65% 41 of 51 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:53
2 Yana Kunitskaya 0 16 of 36 44% 25 of 47 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Lina Länsberg 0 31 of 51 60% 44 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:57
3 Yana Kunitskaya 0 24 of 44 54% 28 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lina Länsberg 0 28 of 40 70% 74 of 92 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yana Kunitskaya 43 of 87 49% 18 of 61 23 of 24 2 of 2 22 of 66 20 of 20 1 of 1
Lina Länsberg 72 of 111 64% 26 of 54 30 of 36 16 of 21 33 of 68 30 of 33 9 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yana Kunitskaya 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 4 2 of 2 1 of 1
Lina Länsberg 13 of 20 65% 4 of 7 6 of 7 3 of 6 2 of 8 7 of 7 4 of 5
2 Yana Kunitskaya 16 of 36 44% 5 of 25 11 of 11 0 of 0 6 of 26 10 of 10 0 of 0
Lina Länsberg 31 of 51 60% 6 of 19 16 of 21 9 of 11 16 of 33 15 of 18 0 of 0
3 Yana Kunitskaya 24 of 44 54% 12 of 31 10 of 11 2 of 2 16 of 36 8 of 8 0 of 0
Lina Länsberg 28 of 40 70% 16 of 28 8 of 8 4 of 4 15 of 27 8 of 8 5 of 5
TKO (punches) R1 3:25 · UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · Mar 03, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cristiane Justino 0 33 of 43 76% 42 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:21
Yana Kunitskaya 0 5 of 11 45% 17 of 24 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cristiane Justino 0 33 of 43 76% 42 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:21
Yana Kunitskaya 0 5 of 11 45% 17 of 24 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cristiane Justino 33 of 43 76% 22 of 31 11 of 12 0 of 0 10 of 13 8 of 8 15 of 22
Yana Kunitskaya 5 of 11 45% 2 of 4 1 of 5 2 of 2 3 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cristiane Justino 33 of 43 76% 22 of 31 11 of 12 0 of 0 10 of 13 8 of 8 15 of 22
Yana Kunitskaya 5 of 11 45% 2 of 4 1 of 5 2 of 2 3 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1
Ketlen Vieira - Fight History
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ketlen Vieira 0 30 of 92 32% 66 of 158 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:42
Jacqueline Cavalcanti 0 53 of 110 48% 72 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ketlen Vieira 0 11 of 47 23% 11 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jacqueline Cavalcanti 0 24 of 46 52% 24 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ketlen Vieira 0 2 of 6 33% 38 of 72 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:42
Jacqueline Cavalcanti 0 1 of 3 33% 20 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ketlen Vieira 0 17 of 39 43% 17 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jacqueline Cavalcanti 0 28 of 61 45% 28 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ketlen Vieira 30 of 92 32% 27 of 86 2 of 5 1 of 1 29 of 90 0 of 0 1 of 2
Jacqueline Cavalcanti 53 of 110 48% 15 of 62 16 of 25 22 of 23 53 of 110 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ketlen Vieira 11 of 47 23% 9 of 44 1 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jacqueline Cavalcanti 24 of 46 52% 6 of 23 4 of 8 14 of 15 24 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ketlen Vieira 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2
Jacqueline Cavalcanti 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ketlen Vieira 17 of 39 43% 17 of 38 0 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jacqueline Cavalcanti 28 of 61 45% 9 of 38 12 of 16 7 of 7 28 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Angelo picks Jacqueline Cavalcanti, trusting her speed and footwork. He expects Cavalcanti to win the striking exchanges and that Vieira's takedowns won't matter to the judges. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds as a lock. He notes Vieira may have won her last fight but expects a similar decision loss here.

over 2.5 rounds
"I trust the speed. I trust the footwork. I think Jacquelini gets it done. ... The over two and a half here is about as big of a lock as you're going to get."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Big Brady leans toward Jacqueline Cavalcanti, believing she is the better striker with superior volume. He thinks she can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing, winning by decision. He acknowledges Ketlen Vieira's path to victory via takedowns but doubts she will execute.

"I'm going to take Kavaki to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Cody picks Jacqueline Cavalcanti, citing her high striking volume (6.5 significant strikes per minute) and youth. He notes that Ketlen Vieira often gets out-struck but wins via cage control, but believes Cavalcanti's takedown defense has improved and she is physically strong enough to avoid being smothered. He expects Cavalcanti to out-land Vieira and win a 29-28 decision, though he acknowledges the risk of judges favoring control time.

Suggests Cavalcanti by decision or split decision.
"Calvocanti is going to outland her, but there's a good probability that she will give up the control time."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Connor picks Cavalcanti, agreeing with Zane. He notes Vieira has no progression in her game and only changes aggression level per opponent. Cavalcanti is defensively minded, moves her feet well, and has a jab, making it hard for Vieira to charge in. He hopes Vieira doesn't drag Cavalcanti into the mud.

Same odds as Zane. Connor calls Vieira 'stuck in the mud'.
"The only hope is that she doesn't stick the only, uh, bright spot in the division in the mud with her."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked May 16, 2026 (fight day)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Cavalcanti is better everywhere: more technical striker, higher pace, better fight IQ, difficult to take down, great cardio. Vieira has low volume and bad fight IQ. Cavalcanti will outpoint Vieira and win a comfortable decision.

"I think Ketlen Vieira is going to win relatively convincingly."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Lucrative James leans toward Jacqueline Cavalcanti, citing her superior striking and consistent volume. He believes Vieira's takedowns may not be enough to win two rounds, and Cavalcanti's composed striking will earn a decision. He notes the fight could be close and split.

"I'm going to say Cavalcante wins the decision. I'm going to say it's 1-1 going into round three and she isn't able to get a takedown."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

The host picks Jacqueline Cavalcanti over Ketlen Vieira, believing this fight will launch Cavalcanti into title contention. He cites Cavalcanti's improved grappling defense and striking edge to pick apart Vieira and win on the scorecards.

"I believe Cavalcanti's grappling defense improvements and her striking edge here will allow her to pick apart Vieira and win this fight on the score cards."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

The host thinks Cavalcanti is a slicker striker with a better gas tank, but he is hesitant to bet her at -155 due to Vieira's grappling threat and live dog status. He predicts Cavalcanti wins by decision, but would only bet if the line drops closer to -120.

"I think Cavalcanti has the better gas tank. I think she can land with a little bit more output and I believe enough in her grappling to predict her to win this fight, but not so much to bet her …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Paul picks Jacqueline Cavalcanti by split decision, noting that both fighters are likely to go to decision and that Vieira has been involved in many split decisions. He believes Cavalcanti's volume and more impactful strikes will earn her the nod, but expects it to be contentious. He bet the fight ends in a split decision at plus 400.

Bet on fight ends in split decision at plus 400.
"I took the fight ends in split decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Zane picks Cavalcanti because she is a sharp technical striker with good footwork and a jab, while Vieira is stuck in the mud with no progression in her game. He expects Cavalcanti to pick Vieira apart at range, as Vieira's only path is to overpower her in the clinch, but she often spends time at range not knowing what to do.

Odds: Vieira opened +120, now +145; Cavalcanti opened -140, now -170. Zane calls it a 'good fight if Vieira doesn't win it'.
"If that happens, uh, it's basically just the cub Swanson versus Nate Landware or body green versus Jeremy Stevens equation. Again, here's somebody with some idea of positioning with long straight efficient strikes, she should be able to run circles …"
LOSS vs Norma Dumont
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ketlen Vieira 0 25 of 83 30% 58 of 121 2 of 4 50% 1 0 5:19
Norma Dumont 0 62 of 101 61% 87 of 127 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ketlen Vieira 0 7 of 23 30% 7 of 23 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:36
Norma Dumont 0 17 of 23 73% 25 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ketlen Vieira 0 8 of 29 27% 32 of 57 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:53
Norma Dumont 0 17 of 37 45% 20 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ketlen Vieira 0 10 of 31 32% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:50
Norma Dumont 0 28 of 41 68% 42 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ketlen Vieira 25 of 83 30% 10 of 60 5 of 10 10 of 13 25 of 79 0 of 2 0 of 2
Norma Dumont 62 of 101 61% 24 of 60 18 of 21 20 of 20 57 of 96 5 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ketlen Vieira 7 of 23 30% 1 of 13 1 of 4 5 of 6 7 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Norma Dumont 17 of 23 73% 5 of 10 2 of 3 10 of 10 17 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ketlen Vieira 8 of 29 27% 1 of 19 4 of 5 3 of 5 8 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 2
Norma Dumont 17 of 37 45% 5 of 25 5 of 5 7 of 7 14 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Ketlen Vieira 10 of 31 32% 8 of 28 0 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0
Norma Dumont 28 of 41 68% 14 of 25 11 of 13 3 of 3 26 of 39 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Norma Dumont vs. Ketlen Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dumont (-150); Vieira (+120)

Round 1
In the previous match, two athletes vied to save their place on the ever-churning roster. In this fourth fight of the evening, the promotion decided to plug in the most relevant matchup of the whole card, as the winner of this bantamweight pairing will most likely be closest to the next title shot come Monday. While Brazil’s Vieira (15-4, 9-4 UFC) already came up short against champ Kayla Harrison, perhaps it would change should they lock horns for five rounds. Standing in her way of all that is “The Immortal” Dumont (12-2, 8-2 UFC), who has heard the final bell in nine straight outings. Whether they make it 10 straight for the streaking Dumont or get out of their early, referee Mark Smith will handle the necessities from here. There is a sporting clap of hands that precedes the action.
Dumont moves to the center of the cage standing as tall as she can, and she hand-fights a pawing Vieira who is just looking for her range. At 40 seconds in, Vieira finally commits to a strike, albeit a leg kick. Dumont responds immediately with one of her own. Vieira sits down on another calf kick to disrupt her opponent, and Dumont says “two can play that game” and gives it back any time Vieira lands on her. They trade hands from up close, drawing a smile out of Dumont as if she felt Vieira’s power and was not concerned. Vieira darts in behind her jab, and the two are just picking and poking at one another with single strikes. Vieira scores first, and Dumont comes back at her.
“Fenomeno” looks for her right hand several times, but Dumont is able to see them coming in time and avoid them. Leg kicks are traded, and Dumont doubles up on a heavy one. Vieira rushes forward, banging into Dumont and forcing her to awkwardly rebound during a takedown effort. Vieira uses the momentum to drag Dumont down, where she takes her back and looks for a rear-naked choke. Dumont flips over to her back to break up the sub, so Vieira transitions to an arm-triangle choke. Dumont once more twists to get out of the worst of it, so Vieira readjusts and presses her shoulder down to complete the sub. Vieira laces her leg between Dumont’s to give her more leverage to crush her shoulder down, and Dumont stays calm and punches Vieira in the side until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 2
The round begins with kicks, with Vieira throwing first and last. Dumont hurls a one-two her way, and Vieira is not standing there any longer to get hit. When Dumont does reach her with a right hand, Vieira strafes to the side to reset. Dumont is one-and-done with a kick, and Vieira leans in to score and then leans back. Dumont starts to put more than one strike together in her attacks, sometimes doubling or tripling up on offense or stringing a few back-to-back. Vieira nails the inside leg a few times, prompting Dumont to pitch one back on the outside. Vieira checks the second, and they go tit-for-tat with these strikes for a time.
Vieira leaps forward and gets caught with a right hand from Dumont, and she shoots in from a double from too far out. Dumont shuts it down, so Vieira backs off and tries again from another angle. This time, she puts Dumont on her back with about 1:45 left in the round. Like a snake slowly coiling around to consume its prey, Vieira calmly slithers through to advance to half guard and pursue an arm-triangle choke. This takes a great deal of time to get there, so before she can cinch anything up, the second round is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 3
The top contenders reach the final frame, and they approach one another in it like the previous two. Dumont moves forward but is generally cautious, and Vieira stays defensively composed from most of what comes her direction. Dumont pushes the action with a storming right hand, colliding with Vieira and putting them on the fence. Vieira quickly turns her foe around, where she imposes her body weight on the streaking Dumont. She leans on Dumont for a time, until Smith calls for them to do more.
Dumont separates first, and she lets loose with her hands. Reaching out with a left and a right, and she looses this two-punch flurry again and again. Vieira stays on the outside edge with her guard high, and Dumont goes to the body when the hands of her foe are up. Dumont swarms forward behind a low kick to open up punches, and she lands cleanly in the midst of her combinations. Vieira is fine to stay on her back heel offering counters and the occasional kick as time ticks off, as Vieira likely expects she is up on the scorecards. Dumont is fighting like she needs the finish, in terms of her own style. She does not bite down on her mouthpiece to bang it out, and she does not point to the ground to force a brawl, but instead remains at kickboxing range leaning in and out to attack. The slow, arduous bantamweight match comes to an end, and both women raise their arms in the air. Could it go either way?

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (29-28 Vieira)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (29-28 Vieira)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Dumont (29-28 Vieira)

The Official Result
Norma Dumont def. Ketlen Vieira via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Norma Dumont

Angelo picks Norma Dumont confidently, citing her technical striking, patience, and takedown defense. He notes Ketlen Vieira is bigger but slower and less technical, relying on cage control. He thinks Norma's speed and accuracy will be too much, and expects a decision win. He is very confident in Norma but doesn't see many points in DFS due to a lack of finishes.

"Very confident in Norma, but I don't think there's a lot of points to be had."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Norma Dumont

Big Brady picks Norma Dumont, noting she looked great in her last fight against Aldana with faster hands. He acknowledges Ketlen Vieira has elite takedown defense but believes the fight will stay standing, where Dumont is the better striker. He predicts a decision win for Dumont.

decision
"I'm going to go Dumont. She looked really good in her last fight against Aldana. ... I think the better striker is going to be Dumont. So yeah, Dumont for me and Dumont to win this fight by decision there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Norma Dumont

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Dumont is a sharpshooter who can even things up with one hit. He thinks Vieira is not capable of putting pressure on Dumont, and if the fight is a coin flip, Dumont has the edge because she can push a pace Vieira never has.

Dumont opened at -150, now -163; Vieira opened at +130, now +143.
"I think dumont is enough of a sharpshooter that she can even things up with with one hit."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Norma Dumont

Lucrative James picks Norma Dumont, but acknowledges it's a close fight. He believes Dumont is the better striker with better range control and takedown defense, and that she can stop Vieira's takedowns. However, he notes that Vieira's path to victory is through grappling, and if she can get top position, she could win. James sees value in the fight going to decision.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to pick Dumont. I think she's the better striker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Norma Dumont

Dumont will get her sixth straight victory by putting it on Vieira with her striking and physicality, possibly landing a few takedowns. Dumont is in much better shape and a better state of her career, leading to a decision win.

"I believe Dant will be successful in getting her six sixth straight victory here as she really puts it on Vieier with her striking, her physicality, maybe landing a few takedowns. But I think Dont is in much better shape …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Norma Dumont

The MMA Guru picks Norma Dumont, highlighting her recent sharp stand-up performance against Irene Aldana. He criticizes Ketlen Vieira's inconsistency and poor recent performances. He believes Dumont has momentum and will win by decision, possibly 29-28.

"I'm going to say that Norma Dumont's got the momentum right now and I'm going to say that Norma Dumont pulls this one off by decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Norma Dumont

Zane picks Dumont because she is a sharp striker who can push a pace that Vieira cannot match. He notes that Vieira is stiff and wide open, and Dumont has the ability to land fight-changing shots. Even if Dumont has a bad fight, he expects a narrow contest, and if she has a good one, she wins clearly.

Dumont opened at -150, now -163; Vieira opened at +130, now +143.
"I think I have to pick norma dumont here because even if she comes out and tries to be a neutralizing fighter, I simply do not have the trust that viera will win that fight."
WIN vs Macy Chiasson
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ketlen Vieira 0 28 of 64 43% 106 of 174 0 of 1 0% 0 0 10:06
Macy Chiasson 0 22 of 43 51% 52 of 77 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ketlen Vieira 0 18 of 48 37% 29 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:06
Macy Chiasson 0 17 of 31 54% 18 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Ketlen Vieira 0 2 of 4 50% 39 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:47
Macy Chiasson 0 0 of 1 0% 9 of 10 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
3 Ketlen Vieira 0 8 of 12 66% 38 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:13
Macy Chiasson 0 5 of 11 45% 25 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ketlen Vieira 28 of 64 43% 25 of 60 3 of 3 0 of 1 15 of 47 5 of 6 8 of 11
Macy Chiasson 22 of 43 51% 8 of 25 6 of 9 8 of 9 20 of 39 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ketlen Vieira 18 of 48 37% 15 of 44 3 of 3 0 of 1 13 of 43 5 of 5 0 of 0
Macy Chiasson 17 of 31 54% 5 of 16 5 of 7 7 of 8 17 of 29 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Ketlen Vieira 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4
Macy Chiasson 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ketlen Vieira 8 of 12 66% 8 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 1 6 of 7
Macy Chiasson 5 of 11 45% 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ketlen Vieira vs. Macy Chiasson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chiasson (-118), Vieira (-102)

Round 1
What was once a likely bantamweight title eliminator has become a featherweight fight of little import, thanks to Vieira (14-4, 8-4 UFC) being unable to get down to the 136-pound limit. Chiasson (10-3, 8-3 UFC), with eyes to the future, gladly accepts 25% of Vieira’s purse before getting to punch her in the face for her transgression. Referee Mark Smith stands by to keep things on the up-and-up, although the match still opens with the ladies clapping hands first. Vieira takes to the center of the Octagon, with Chiasson circling around her probing her with low kicks and jabs. The Louisiana native manages her distance well, staying active and not letting Vieira strike her. Chiasson fires up a head kick, and uses it as a way to open a left hand up. Vieira looks to counter, but Chiasson is out of range from everything besides a pair of body shots. Vieira sits down on a right hand, shaking Chiasson up a little and forcing her to reset. Chiasson goes for a spinning wheel kick that misses the mark significantly, and Vieira tracks her down and smashes her in the face with a ferocious right hand. Chiasson wears it well but is not a fan, scooting out of the way before Vieira can pin her down again. Chiasson prods the body with jabs and kicks, and Vieira counters with a right hand over the top. Vieira connects with a few fast hands, and when Chiasson clinches, she lays into her with another flurry of blows. Both women try to land elbows from up close, but they sway just enough to let them soar past one another. Vieira bullies Chiasson against the fencing, and Chiasson slowly but methodically fights her way out while using a knee to get some space. Vieira pushes her close again and back to the wall, and she punches her way out rather than glom on to the taller woman. Chiasson chips at the front leg a few times, and she catches Vieira on the temple with a long right hand. Vieira scores a combo of punches to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 2
The moment gloves are touched, Chiasson shoots in for a takedown. Vieira’s defense spikes them both on their faces, and she recovers just the faster to turn to the side to establish top position. The Brazilian hops a few times to get herself in the conventional guard, but she is intent on passing to somewhere better and clinging to an arm-triangle choke setup. Chiasson is wise to it and she fights back with elbows and even flirts with an armbar setup, but she is stifled when Vieira stays flatly pressed to her. Chiasson pushes off the hips, and she turns to a knee but inadvertently gives up her back. As she rolls, Chiasson finds herself still in Vieira’s clutches. Vieira gets herself back on top in the guard, smothering the American while not otherwise utilizing much offense. Vieira lands punches every so often, preferring to rack up control time while shutting down anything Chiasson can do. Chiasson slashes off her back with her elbow, and she scores two more when Vieira postures up. Vieira rides out the remainder of the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 3
Before the third round begins, Smith calls in a cutman to slice the tape off of Vieira’s glove. The two touch gloves, and Chiasson comes out shot out of a cannon. Punching her way into a single, Chiasson finds that the Brazilian is not about to go down and falls to her back. Vieira establishes herself on top again, and she embraces the grind immediately. It does not take Smith long to ask for more activity, with Vieira content to work the body with short strikes and remain busy enough to keep her position. Vieira sits up and drills Chiasson with a pair of punches that lead her corner to hoot and holler, and Chiasson fails to employ butterfly hooks to get some space. Vieira’s smothering ground control is sucking the energy out of the building, and when Chiasson attempts to escape, the Brazilian is there to shut her down completely. Smith again asks for Vieira to do more, and it is Chiasson who does some damage with a vicious elbow that rips open a cut on Vieira’s forehead. Chiasson uses the moment to explode to her feet, where she starts laying into Vieira with punches and elbows. Vieira tries to clinch, and Chiasson bails on it and leaps at her with lunging punches and kicks. Chiasson drills the Brazilian with exhausted one-twos, and her late onslaught may sway a judge or two because of the damage inflicted. The not-so-thrilling fight comes to an end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)

The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Macy Chiasson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Angelo picks Ketlen Vieira, believing she can bully Macy Chiasson by closing the distance and negating Chiasson's length. He notes that Vieira lost to Kayla Harrison (potential champion) while Chiasson's win was due to a cut. He is cautious about betting on someone coming off a loss but would bet on Vieira as a dog if odds flip.

Would bet on Ketlen Vieira if she becomes an underdog.
"I still think Kelan wins this fight. She is big. She is strong."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Big Brady picks Ketlen Vieira with low confidence, citing her elite takedown defense (88%) as the key factor. He notes that even Kayla Harrison struggled to take Vieira down. He believes Vieira is the better striker if the fight stays standing and may even take Chiasson down, as Chiasson has been taken down by lesser fighters. He expects a close decision.

"I'll take Vieira. Uh, I even think Vieira might be able to get on top."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

Connor picks Chiasson for being crazy and aggressive, and because Vieira looks consistently uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that if Vieira cannot get takedowns, Chiasson could be the more aggressive clinch striker. However, he acknowledges the fight is low-level and hard to call.

"I'll take Jason for being crazy and aggressive. I suppose for looking, uh, looking consistently more uncomfortable. Yeah. I mean, all, all it seems like it would take is for Vieira to just get into clinches consistently and put Jason …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

Matt picks Macy Chiasson to win by decision. He values Chiasson's physicality and improving striking, which he believes will overcome Vieira's technical striking. He notes that Chiasson blends her striking with grappling effectively and sees value at -125, estimating her true odds around -150 to -185. He expects a decision win.

Chiasson by decision +150, Vieira by decision +175
"I'm going to lean on the physicality of Kasan to grind this fight out."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

The MMA Guru picks Macy Chiasson over Ketlen Vieira, citing Chiasson's volume, pressure, and physicality advantage. He criticizes Vieira's recent performance against Miesha Tate and believes Chiasson's grit will force a high-output fight. He worries about a potential submission from Vieira but overall favors Chiasson.

"I'm going to go with Macy Shasson. I think her volume's good. I think her pressure is good... She's got a physicality advantage here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Zane picks Vieira because he believes she can out-wrestle and out-grapple Chiasson, and that her strength and top control will be decisive. He notes that Chiasson has improved but still struggles in the clinch and is easy to hit. However, he acknowledges that if Vieira cannot get takedowns, she will struggle due to her poor striking confidence.

"I got to pick Vieira. I'll pick Jason who gives a fuck low level MMA. I mean, the fact that this is the other fight with two ranked fighters in it is a, is a cruel joke about women's banter …"
LOSS vs Kayla Harrison
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kayla Harrison 0 24 of 61 39% 67 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ketlen Vieira 0 55 of 94 58% 98 of 149 2 of 8 25% 0 0 7:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kayla Harrison 0 5 of 16 31% 27 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ketlen Vieira 0 17 of 27 62% 37 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:46
2 Kayla Harrison 0 14 of 32 43% 29 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ketlen Vieira 0 15 of 35 42% 27 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:02
3 Kayla Harrison 0 5 of 13 38% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ketlen Vieira 0 23 of 32 71% 34 of 46 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kayla Harrison 24 of 61 39% 12 of 38 4 of 15 8 of 8 21 of 58 3 of 3 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 55 of 94 58% 34 of 69 14 of 16 7 of 9 19 of 50 15 of 17 21 of 27
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kayla Harrison 5 of 16 31% 1 of 8 0 of 4 4 of 4 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 17 of 27 62% 7 of 17 9 of 9 1 of 1 4 of 12 9 of 11 4 of 4
2 Kayla Harrison 14 of 32 43% 8 of 22 3 of 7 3 of 3 11 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 15 of 35 42% 8 of 25 4 of 6 3 of 4 9 of 29 6 of 6 0 of 0
3 Kayla Harrison 5 of 13 38% 3 of 8 1 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 23 of 32 71% 19 of 27 1 of 1 3 of 4 6 of 9 0 of 0 17 of 23
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kayla Harrison vs. Ketlen Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Harrison (-800), Vieira (+550)

Round 1
Even though she is currently ranked higher than her opponent, Vieira (14-3, 8-3 UFC) finds herself as a massive betting underdog at around +700 against enormous favorite Harrison (17-1, 1-0 UFC). Anything can happen in this glorious sport, and it often does. This grappling-centric affair will draw oversight from referee Marc Goddard, and the main card commences as the bantamweights touch ‘em up. Vieira flicks out a jab towards the jittery Harrison, and she gets knocked back by a left hand. Vieira reaches out with her right hand, and chants in support of her opponent rain down in the form of “USA!” Harrison does not channel this energy immediately, taking to the center of the cage and checking a low kick. Harrison kicks her to the chest, and Vieira skirts out the outer edge of the cage. Harrison tries to hit a trip, and Vieira slips away. Harrison fires off a high kick, and Vieira blocks it as the judoka stumbles. Harrison springs back to her feet and grasps Vieira around the waist, delivering knees to the body as Vieira tries to catch them fruitlessly. Harrison goes for a knee up top, and she hunts for a few trips to no avail. Harrison slams a knee in the ribs, and she uses her other to smack the Brazilian in the face with it. Goddard asks for more activity, and the audience turns on the ladies as they spend a lot of time in the clinch. Vieira tries to escape, and she blocks a knee and wings as right hand that bounces off the guard. Harrison checks another kick and parries a body kick, and she returns fire with her own kick to the stomach. Harrison sticks and moves with a low kick and one high, and Vieira swings and misses. This allows Harrison to close in on her, and she bowls Vieira over and ultimately lands in half guard. “USA” chants for Harrison rain down again, and she moves to mount and blasts Vieira in the face with an elbow. Vieira turns around to give up her back, and Harrison follows her every step of the way, battering her with elbows and punches. Vieira rides out the position under fire until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harrison
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Harrison
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harrison

Round 2
The ladies meet in the middle, and they lob inaccurate strikes at one another. The first one landed is a low kick from the American, and she dances out of the way of a few long right hands from Vieira. Vieira sits down on a right hand to catch Harrison on the chin, and she gets tripped out with an inside low kick. Vieira stands back up without issue, and she parries a high kick. Vieira gets off her own leg kick, and she again tags Harrison with a right on the side of the head. Vieira digs a right to the body, and Harrison punches her way into a takedown attempt where she grabs the leg and puts her hand behind the neck to throw her foe down. Vieira fights it off and resets, blocking another head kick so she can jab Harrison in the ribs. Harrison shoots for a takedown and complains of an eye poke when Vieira posted off, and Harrison signals she is fine and does not need to pause. Vieira stops two more attempts and lands a few strikes, and Harrison plants her feet to connect with a heavy leg kick. Harrison pushes in tight to the clinch, and she is warned for holding the fence. Vieira breaks away, and Harrison plows forward with a knee to the body before clinching up again. While Vieira answers with an elbow, she cannot gain any space. Vieira rings her bell with another elbow, and Harrison pushes through it to get back up close and personal with knees to the body. Vieira blasts her with another elbow, and swelling has developed above Harrison’s right eye. Harrison digs several more knees to the body, and blood trickles out of the lump on her head. Goddard asks for more action, and he splits them up with 20 seconds left in the round. Vieira kicks low, gets checked, and pushes past a head kick to throw one back. The round ends with both ladies whiffing on kicks.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harrison

Round 3
The ladies bump fists and then bow to one another to start the round. Harrison comes out aggressively, blocking a kick and shooting in for a double. Vieira breaks out of it and lobs back a one-two that busts open Harrison’s nose, with blood flowing immediately. Harrison tries for another takedown, and that fails again. Harrison gets off an inside leg kick that disrupts Vieira’s balance, and she pursues a takedown and comes up short. Harrison checks a calf kick and goes for a takedown that is nowhere close to landing. Vieira swipes a right to the body, and her guard is high to block a head kick. Harrison crashes forward for a takedown, lifts Vieira’s leg up and cannot get her down. On Harrison’s second attempt, she succeeds in wrenching the Brazilian to the mat. Vieira tries to tug on the fencing to stop it, but she is placed on her back with Harrison raining down elbows. Vieira pushes her back, and Harrison comes back to drill her with a left hand. Harrison stays busy with ground-and-pound, and Vieira pulls her toes on the wire to get to a more advantageous position. Harrison postures up to drop down three left hands, and Vieira throws her legs up for a high guard or a triangle choke. Harrison is wise to it and continues slamming down punches, and she brings down the hammer with a few high-amplitude elbows. Harrison passes to half guard, and she slices over to mount with 45 seconds to spare. Harrison slashes down with a few elbows, and Vieira clings to her tightly. Vieira turns over, and Harrison spins with her and wrenches on her neck with a brute force crank more than a choke. Harrison swirls over to half guard when Vieira turns, and she gets pushed to her feet as the match concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harrison (29-28 Harrison)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Harrison (29-28 Harrison)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harrison (30-27 Harrison)

The Official Result
Kayla Harrison def. Ketlen Vieira via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Angelo picks Kayla Harrison to dominate, citing her Olympic gold medal judo and physical strength. He notes Ketlen Vieira relies on being big and strong to bully opponents, but that won't work against Harrison. He expects Harrison to toss Vieira and control the fight. He also suggests looking at the under 2.5 rounds line for potential value.

Look at under 2.5 rounds line for value
"Kayla Harrison dominates here she's absolutely the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Big Brady picks Kayla Harrison confidently, acknowledging Vieira is solid but believes Harrison is on a different level. He expects Harrison's judo to overcome Vieira's takedown defense, and once on top, Harrison will control and win a decision, possibly with a finish. He notes the weight cut is something to monitor.

"I'll go Kayla Harrison to win this fight and Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Cody picks Harrison, believing her Judo and ground-and-pound will be effective. He acknowledges Vieira's takedown defense and altitude concerns but thinks Harrison's UFC debut win over Holly Holm showed her potential. He warns against betting the heavy favorite.

"Harrison will be the pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Connor also picks Harrison, echoing Zane's reasoning. He notes that Vieira has never believed in her hands since being knocked out by Raquel Pennington and relies on clinch work, which plays into Harrison's strengths. Connor expects Harrison to win impressively and set up a title fight.

Same odds commentary.
"Hey, if they're if they're hoping for a pania win that then sets up harrison in a uh for a title fight where that actually has like not just two b sides."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Daniel Vreeland picks Kayla Harrison. He admits he hasn't been the biggest Harrison fan and has faded her before, but notes that her one-dimensional grappling is so elite that it doesn't matter. He points out that Harrison's takedown game is elite and she is physically very strong for the weight class, even though she is cutting a lot of weight. He believes she will pile things on and get a win, possibly by submission.

Harrison by submission +350
"I like Kayla Harrison here I think we see her absolutely pile things on"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Kayla Harrison, calling her a once-in-a-lifetime athlete. He notes that Harrison's drop to 135 has made her more explosive and athletic. While Vieira has 92% takedown defense, Vreeland believes Harrison's Judo and wrestling will overcome that. He expects Harrison to win and secure a title shot, though he is unsure of the method.

"Kayla Harrison coming out here getting this win securing a title shot"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Jeff Fox picks Kayla Harrison. He notes that Harrison is a two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo and has elite grappling. He believes her takedown game and physical strength will be too much for Ketlen Vieira, even though Vieira has a grappling base. Fox thinks Harrison will dominate on the ground and likely get a finish.

"I'm taking Kayla Harrison obviously"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kayla Harrison

The host thinks the odds are a bit wide for his liking but still believes Harrison will go out and grind the fight out. He notes Harrison is the superior grappler and may be at a disadvantage in striking, but not enough to prevent her from closing distance and using judo. He expects Harrison to win on the scorecards, as Vieira will show enough resistance to avoid a finish.

odds a little bit wide for my liking
"the odds a little bit wide for my liking but that still does not take away from the fact that I think that Harrison goes out there and grinds this fight out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Paul picks Harrison, noting her world-class grappling and the fact that she can now use elbows in the UFC. He mentions Vieira's cardio issues and Harrison's ability to grind out a win, but cautions about the weight cut and altitude.

"I'm picking Kayla Harrison"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison over Ketlen Vieira, citing Harrison's dominant grappling and physicality. He notes Harrison's ability to toss around training partners like Alex Pereira and her past performance against Holly Holm. He believes Harrison will be the champion and that Vieira is not on her level. He also mentions the fight is three rounds, so altitude is less of a concern.

"I'm going to go Kayla Harrison you guys I just got a hunch that she's going to get this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Zane picks Harrison confidently, noting that Vieira is a swing-and-clinch artist who lacks the nuance to deal with Harrison's superior judo and grappling. He highlights Harrison's adjustment in the Holly Holm fight where she let go of a hip toss to land in top position. Zane expects Harrison to dominate in the clinch and win decisively.

Harrison opened at -769, now -1042. Vieira opened at +483, now +659.
"Kayla harrison's gonna win. what is I know shocker."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ketlen Vieira 0 15 of 33 45% 65 of 103 3 of 3 100% 3 0 10:49
Pannie Kianzad 0 22 of 51 43% 92 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ketlen Vieira 0 5 of 15 33% 23 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:53
Pannie Kianzad 0 4 of 16 25% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ketlen Vieira 0 7 of 13 53% 25 of 34 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:18
Pannie Kianzad 0 4 of 9 44% 15 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ketlen Vieira 0 3 of 5 60% 17 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:38
Pannie Kianzad 0 14 of 26 53% 70 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ketlen Vieira 15 of 33 45% 13 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 25 1 of 2 6 of 6
Pannie Kianzad 22 of 51 43% 17 of 45 3 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 30 0 of 0 12 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ketlen Vieira 5 of 15 33% 4 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1
Pannie Kianzad 4 of 16 25% 2 of 13 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ketlen Vieira 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 3
Pannie Kianzad 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ketlen Vieira 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 2
Pannie Kianzad 14 of 26 53% 12 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Pannie Kianzad vs. Ketlen Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-150), Kianzad (+130)

Round 1
The fight with arguably the greatest title implications tonight is buried in the middle of the prelims, as the women’s bantamweight division is still championless and the perceived “uncrowned queen” of Holly Holm was knocked down a peg last week. Both women on the outside of the UFC’s top five looking in, Vieira (13-3, 7-3 UFC) and Kianzad (16-6, 5-3 UFC) will engage in a crucial contest at 135 pounds. With neither woman sporting a stoppage rate over 50%, referee Jason Herzog could be in it for the long haul here. Vieira offers a glove touch, but Kianzad wants nothing to do with it. Instead, Kianzad races forward pushing out straight punches down the middle. Vieira dodges back and reaches out with a heavy right hand, and Kianzad is out of the way in time. Vieira sticks out a jab, and Kianzad catches her with a left hand and a right over the top. Kianzad pokes out a jab, and she follows with a left hook that bounces off the guard. Vieira shoots in for a low single-leg takedown, and she lifts Kianzad’s leg up and throws her down to land right in side control. Kianzad recovers to half guard when Vieira sets up an arm-triangle choke, and the Brazilian still has her left arm hooked around the head of her opponent. Vieira looks to isolate Kianzad’s left arm for a potential armlock, and Kianzad turns to her side to stop it from coming together. Vieira powers her back over with shoulder pressure, smothering “Banzai” and returning her flat to her back. Kianzad gets back to a guard and she sets up butterfly hooks to push off, and this allows Vieira to punch her square in the face. Kianzad responds with a few strikes off her back, but the ones she absorbs from “Fenomeno” are far heavier. Kianzad looks to push off the midsection, but Vieira stays heavy as a ton of bricks and steps into the half guard. Vieira controls her adversary and presses her shoulder into Kianzad’s face and neck, and frustrating the Swede. Vieira grabs hold of the left arm and isolates it to grip for a kimura, and Kianzad protects herself by putting it under her back. As Vieira shifts to north-south position, the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 2
The ladies meet in the middle of the cage, and Kianzad leads off with a looping left hook. Vieira blocks it and replies in kind, and the strike from the Brazilian glances off the raised guard. When Kianzad kicks low, Vieira gives her three punches over the top. Kianzad steps in to punch, and Vieira snatches up the lead leg and easily throws Kianzad to the canvas. Vieira goes right to half guard, and a desperate Kianzad is able to pull her into her guard and closes it up. Kianzad times a moment in transition to push her foot off Vieira’s body, but Vieira is able to casually shift back over the half guard. Vieira starts hunting for a kimura, and Kianzad defends it but starts taking heavy body shots. Vieira gloms onto her, and she hops into full mount and quickly locks down an arm-triangle choke. Vieira squeezes with her full body weight, and Kianzad defends it with her left arm between the grip of her opponent and her own neck. Kianzad turns the proper way to protect her neck, and Vieira abandons the submission. Kianzad explodes to her side, and she attempts to turn over and get to her knees so she can get back up. Vieira bowls her over and puts her on her back again. With 30 seconds remaining, Vieira tries to lock down an arm-triangle choke on the other side, but Kianzad is wise to it and is not in submission danger. The round ends with Vieira on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 3
A fire seemingly lit under her backside, Kianzad springs right into action, rushing at Vieira with punches in bunches. When Kianzad overextends on a left hook, Vieira smartly changes levels, coming up with a clean double-leg takedown to put Kianzad on her back 15 seconds into the final frame. Kianzad does everything she can to scoot her way to the wall, and this gives up her back in the process. Vieira leans with her back against the fencing, holding onto Kianzad from behind and sliding her hooks in. The leverage for any submission is not there, until she turns to lower herself to the floor. Vieira sets up a rear-naked choke, and Kianzad hand-fights to save herself from getting tapped. When Kianzad thwarts the choke, Vieira locks up a body triangle to further make Kianzad’s life miserable. Kianzad is able to defend from the choke setups, and she grits her teeth and spins around to secure top position with about two minutes left in the fight. Kianzad opens up with punches when she winds up on top, and Vieira clings to her to shut down the offense. Kianzad frees herself and stands up, and she jumps down to nail Vieira with a diving right hand. As Kianzad does damage from the guard, the commentary team starts discussing people walking their cats in strollers. All the while, Kianzad is doing anything she can to hunt for a finish, flailing with punches and hammerfists. Vieira pushes off with the ball of her foot, and she smacks Kianzad in the face with one illegally. Herzog checks on Kianzad, who says she is fine and wants to keep going. Kianzad rains down punches to any target, marking up Vieira’s right eye, and swinging frantically. Vieira throws her legs up high for a triangle choke, and she simultaneously grips an armbar, and the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)

The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Pannie Kianzad via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Pannie Kianzad

Angelo favors Pannie Kianzad's footwork, speed, athleticism, and jab over Ketlen Vieira's size and strength. He notes Vieira's recent performances have been spotty and that her lack of speed could be exploited. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds and a plus 3.5 betting line on Kianzad.

over 2.5 rounds likely a lock; plus 3.5 on Pannie Kianzad (buying points)
"the pick is going to be Pawnee I like the footwork I like the speed I like the athleticism I like the jab"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Pannie Kianzad

Big Brady picks Pannie Kianzad by decision, but says he doesn't care about the fight and won't bet it. He likes Kianzad's volume striking and believes she can keep the fight standing with 80% takedown defense. He notes Vieira lands harder shots but Kianzad will outwork her. He is concerned if Vieira gets takedowns.

by decision
"give me Kanza to win this fight give me to Win It by decision but I will not be putting a dollar on this matchup"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Cody picks Vieira, noting her superior competition and grappling advantage. He thinks she will use clinch and takedowns to control Kianzad. He acknowledges it could be a close decision but sees value at -140.

"minus 140 seems pretty fair for for Viera"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Daniel slightly leans toward Ketlen Vieira, noting she has historically been on a higher level and is stronger in the clinch with better top control. However, he thinks she hasn't looked the same since her injury and surgery after the Zingano fight. He acknowledges Pannie Kianzad has better hands and durability, and expects a closely contested fight that could go either way. He is not surprised if Kianzad wins a split decision.

Daniel says 'I slightly lean with Catlin' but does not bet. He mentions the line: Vieira -140, Kianzad +120.
"I slightly lean with Catlin I've always viewed her kind of on a higher level"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

The host picks Ketlen Vieira, believing her damaging strikes will outweigh Kianzad's volume. He notes Vieira's power and ability to hurt opponents, while Kianzad struggles against higher competition and takes damage poorly. He expects Vieira to storm back and win by decision.

"I think Catelyn storms back here and picks up a victory gets back into the win column"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Paul picks Vieira, citing her size, strength, and grappling. He notes Kianzad struggles in the clinch and has been knocked down. He thinks Vieira's boxing improvements will help, but expects a close decision.

"the pick would be ketling there for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

The MMA Guru leans towards Ketlen Vieira, calling it a coin flip but favoring her based on level of competition. He notes that Amanda Nunes' retirement may motivate contenders. He dismisses Pannie Kianzad's win over Lina Länsberg and criticizes her performance against Alexis Davis. The Guru believes Vieira's size, strength, and reach advantage will lead to a 29-28 split decision win.

"I am gonna lean towards Caitlin Vieira just based on level of competition that she's been fighting recently"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 64 of 152 42% 138 of 230 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:45
Ketlen Vieira 0 81 of 159 50% 104 of 184 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 23 of 71 32% 29 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Ketlen Vieira 0 27 of 58 46% 27 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Raquel Pennington 0 21 of 51 41% 42 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Ketlen Vieira 0 29 of 61 47% 32 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
3 Raquel Pennington 0 20 of 30 66% 67 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:04
Ketlen Vieira 0 25 of 40 62% 45 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 64 of 152 42% 41 of 122 5 of 10 18 of 20 56 of 143 8 of 9 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 81 of 159 50% 37 of 111 32 of 35 12 of 13 59 of 134 22 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 23 of 71 32% 15 of 58 3 of 7 5 of 6 21 of 69 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 27 of 58 46% 14 of 44 9 of 9 4 of 5 24 of 54 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 21 of 51 41% 10 of 39 2 of 3 9 of 9 19 of 48 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 29 of 61 47% 14 of 43 11 of 14 4 of 4 21 of 51 8 of 10 0 of 0
3 Raquel Pennington 20 of 30 66% 16 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 5 16 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 25 of 40 62% 9 of 24 12 of 12 4 of 4 14 of 29 11 of 11 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raquel Pennington vs. Ketlen Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-115), Pennington (-105)

Round 1
In terms of pure rankings, no fight on the billing is more relevant than this fight that is not on the marquee. This women’s bantamweight pairing, one pitting the second-ranked Vieira (13-2, 7-2 UFC) against the no. 5 Pennington (14-8, 11-5 UFC), could have immediate title implications depending on how it plays out. One woman will take her first defeat in quite some time, and referee Chris Tognoni will be the first to know who that is. The ladies sportingly clap hands ahead of their important fight, and they are jittery and not ready to engage. At the 20-second mark, Pennington leaps forward with a superwoman punch, and Vieira backs her off with a solid right hand in response. Vieira walks through a low kick on the inside and a jab to the body so that she can swing a swatting left hook, but this misses the mark. The Brazilian whiffs on a big right as well, prompting Pennington to charge in with a stream of jabs. Vieira parries two looping strikes to catch “Rocky” with a short right hand on the way in. Pennington appears no worse for wear as she goes for another kick on the inside of the knee, and she ducks back when a big left hook whizzes past her face. Vieira grabs a charging Pennington to knee her right in the chest, and she sends her backpedaling with a clean right hand across the bow. Pennington slams her shin on the low calf of her opponent, and she fakes a second to draw an exaggerated reaction out of the Brazilian. Vieira snipes with a left hand to open a cut on the top of Pennington’s forehead, and she chains together a combination of punches and a low kick to keep Pennington guessing. Vieira absorbs a kick to the ribs as she closes the distance, and she reaches her foe with a left hook in a short salvo. Vieira paws out a trio of low kicks before lunging with a straight punch to the body, and Pennington answers with a similar punch before swinging a left hand at her. Vieira lands at the end of her left hook, and another superwoman punch from Pennington allows her to close the distance and tie the Brazilian up to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 2
The bantamweight contenders touch hands before re-engaging, and engage they do almost immediately, when Pennington coming out firing. Vieira answers with a counter left hook, as she measures this strike to draw ever closer to the mark. Vieira takes one on the chin to throw back two, and she has a handful of punches ricochet off the guard. Pennington connects with a heavy one-two, and Vieira blinks it out but cannot keep an advancing Pennington off of her. “Rocky” grabs hold of Vieira from behind, where she considers elevating the Brazilian to drop her on the mat, or otherwise force Vieira to carry her body weight. Vieira gets warned for bragging the fence, and she turns back around in the clinch and belts Pennington in the face with a stern elbow. Vieira opens up with a one-two, and she starts slugging it out with her opponent and gets marked up as well. The right side of Pennington’s face is growingly covered in blood, while Vieira’s mouth is also turning a brilliant shade of scarlet. Vieira spins Pennington around, and a knee from the former title challenger slams square into Vieira’s groin. Tognoni recognizes the foul as Vieira appears in clear pain, and the action is paused for about 45 seconds until they get back to it. Pennington starts off the initial aggressor, slinging a high kick and a few lancing punches while Vieira throws back in volume. Vieira gets off with a right hand, and Pennington replies in kind to snap the head back. Pennington nails her with another right over the top before latching on to the clinch and clubbing the body with a pair of knees. Pennington checks the clock when pinned to the fence – it reads about 58 seconds – and she tries with all her might to break off. When she cannot get out of the clinch, she settles for knee after unanswered knee to the chest and midsection. Vieira is sticking to her tightly without striking back, and Pennington remains the busier of the two with body shots. Vieira slithers around to the back with seconds to spare, and there is nothing to be had before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Pennington

Round 3
The ladies double touch hands, hug and then bump fists again to start the last round. They immediately go for broke, with Pennington not wasting any time engaging and throwing hands. Pennington cracks Vieira with a superwoman punch, and Vieira answers with several speedy punches in response. The two close the distance and end up tied up, with Vieira pushing the former title challenger against the wall. Pennington grinds her elbow on the chin as Vieira stays close enough to not take many knees as she did the end of the last round. When Pennington sets up a Thai plum, Vieira disengages. Vieira resets and dings Pennington with a right hand, stringing together a few strikes before Pennington closes in to grab hold of her. They trade short single punches up close, and both try to attempt a throw or toss to change position. When neither succeed, Vieira spins her around in the tie-up, and Pennington looks for a Thai clinch again. This time, Pennington is able to score a knee before they separate, and Vieira leaps forward suddenly with a crushing elbow. Pennington takes it cleanly and tries to escape, so Vieira follows her and nails her with another before snagging here again up close. Vieira targets elbows, and Pennington rips the body with a knee. When in the clinch, Vieira slips around to nearly take the back, and she knees the thigh while Pennington punches her from over her own shoulder. Vieira looks to elevate Pennington, but she cannot throw her as Pennington’s base is too solid. Vieira stays clung to her adversary right to the bitter end, and the judges have their hands full with this one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)

The Official Result
Raquel Pennington def. Ketlen Vieira via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Angelo picks Vieira, citing her size, power, and Judo. He thinks she will be busier in the clinch and work off the cage, making Pennington look boring. He acknowledges Pennington's toughness but believes Vieira's recent win over Holly Holm and physical advantages will secure a decision. He is willing to bet on her.

"I like Caitlin to win this fight I think minus 117 I actually think that's good money on her"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Big Brady picks Ketlen Vieira but is not confident, calling it his least favorite fight on the card. He sees Vieira having a grappling advantage if she gets on top, but notes she often does nothing with control time, as seen in fights against Yana Kunitskaya and Holly Holm. He also acknowledges Pennington's clinch work and ability to push Vieira against the cage. He predicts a close, ugly decision that judges might get wrong, and he will not bet on the fight.

Not betting on this fight; Vieira by decision
"I'm gonna stick with with Vera though I don't love it I will not be betting on this fight but I will pick Viera to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Cody leans slightly towards Pennington, noting her striking output against Aspen Ladd and potential bulldog choke. He sees it as a close fight and prefers to bet it live after seeing who is stronger in the clinch.

"I'll lean ever so slightly to Rocky Pennington... but uh no way I'm getting money invested in it early"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Connor picks Vieira because she is physically stronger and more powerful, and has a wrestling advantage that can neutralize Pennington's boxing. He notes that Pennington often gets taken down at least once per fight, and Vieira's clinch work and top control can sway judges. Connor also mentions that Vieira showed renewed confidence against Holly Holm, throwing off her back foot and in clinches.

Odds: Vieira opened -145, jumped to -105, currently -123. Pennington opened +125, jumped to -112, currently +101. Connor expects a split decision either way.
"I'm going to pick her here. ... Vieira is more she's more powerful. She's she's the bigger hitter and at least the little bit of confidence renewed confidence. She showed against home to at least throw off her back foot …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Connor also picks Vieira, agreeing that she has improved and has more options. He notes that Pennington has power and patience, which could create opportunities, but Vieira's grappling and overall game should prevail. Connor mentions that Pennington has made herself interesting but Vieira is the better fighter.

"I'm gonna take you banks as well but uh yeah I you know it I would I will be interested to see if if cash aware I can win a fight like this"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Jacob picks Pennington, calling Vieira overrated and Pennington underrated. He argues Pennington's recent wins are more impressive and she is the better overall fighter. He notes Vieira's split decision losses and that Pennington's clinch control and striking looked sharp. He is confident enough to bet $100 against Angelo.

Bet $100 with Angelo
"I'll pick Rocky in this fight I think she's the better fighter"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Paul leans towards Vieira, citing her size and recent five-round experience. He expects a clinch-heavy fight and thinks Vieira may get the better of it, but admits he has low confidence and sees it as a pass or live-bet situation.

"the official pick will be Kellen Vieira but it's like you know there's Fighters that you can trust... I couldn't tell you"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Zane picks Pennington because she has steadily improved her boxing and showed excellent counter-punching against Aspen Ladd. He notes that Pennington is a solid defensive wrestler who doesn't give up much even when taken down, and that she makes good decisions as the fight goes on. Zane also points out that Vieira's striking has become overly cautious since her knockout loss, relying on clinch work rather than developing her forward striking.

Odds: Vieira opened -145, jumped to -105, currently -123. Pennington opened +125, jumped to -112, currently +101. Zane expects a close fight and thinks Pennington's technical acumen could earn her a decision.
"I'm going to take Pennington though. ... Pennington is just she is a very solid defensive wrestling grappler even when she gets surprised by somebody's strength or you know gets put in a bad position. She doesn't give a lot …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Zane picks Vieira, noting that she has shown improvements in tactical depth and technique over her last few fights. He believes she has too many options and has gotten better at connecting phases of her game, defense, and counterpunching. However, he worries about her last fight against Melissa Gatto where she couldn't finish and got reversed. He still thinks she should be a lock to win.

Odds mentioned: Vieira opened at -160, currently -248; Pennington opened at +140, currently +200.
"I'm gonna take you banks as well but uh yeah I you know it I would I will be interested to see if if cash aware I can win a fight like this"
WIN vs Holly Holm
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ketlen Vieira 0 96 of 157 61% 188 of 263 0 of 6 0% 0 0 10:03
Holly Holm 0 85 of 151 56% 122 of 190 1 of 7 14% 1 0 1:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ketlen Vieira 0 6 of 9 66% 33 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:36
Holly Holm 0 19 of 22 86% 40 of 45 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:19
2 Ketlen Vieira 0 14 of 21 66% 33 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:46
Holly Holm 0 10 of 22 45% 17 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:56
3 Ketlen Vieira 0 18 of 30 60% 42 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:50
Holly Holm 0 23 of 37 62% 27 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
4 Ketlen Vieira 0 37 of 68 54% 37 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Holly Holm 0 23 of 51 45% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Ketlen Vieira 0 21 of 29 72% 43 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:42
Holly Holm 0 10 of 19 52% 15 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ketlen Vieira 96 of 157 61% 26 of 79 34 of 40 36 of 38 76 of 133 20 of 24 0 of 0
Holly Holm 85 of 151 56% 49 of 109 29 of 34 7 of 8 49 of 110 32 of 37 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ketlen Vieira 6 of 9 66% 2 of 4 0 of 1 4 of 4 3 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0
Holly Holm 19 of 22 86% 3 of 5 14 of 15 2 of 2 3 of 6 14 of 14 2 of 2
2 Ketlen Vieira 14 of 21 66% 6 of 13 2 of 2 6 of 6 8 of 15 6 of 6 0 of 0
Holly Holm 10 of 22 45% 7 of 15 2 of 5 1 of 2 6 of 15 2 of 5 2 of 2
3 Ketlen Vieira 18 of 30 60% 4 of 13 9 of 11 5 of 6 13 of 25 5 of 5 0 of 0
Holly Holm 23 of 37 62% 11 of 25 11 of 11 1 of 1 13 of 26 10 of 11 0 of 0
4 Ketlen Vieira 37 of 68 54% 5 of 33 16 of 18 16 of 17 36 of 66 1 of 2 0 of 0
Holly Holm 23 of 51 45% 19 of 46 2 of 3 2 of 2 20 of 47 3 of 4 0 of 0
5 Ketlen Vieira 21 of 29 72% 9 of 16 7 of 8 5 of 5 16 of 22 5 of 7 0 of 0
Holly Holm 10 of 19 52% 9 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1 7 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holm (-240), Vieira (+195)

Round 1
Jason Herzog will oversee the evening’s bantamweight headliner. After having multiple fights fall through, Holm makes her first appearance since a dominant win over Irene Aldana in October 2020. Vieira, meanwhile, will attempt to add another notable name to her ledger after besting ex-champ Miesha Tate this past November. Holm opens up with an outside leg kick and Vieira answers with a heavy inside leg kick. Holm with a side kick to the knee of her opponent. Vieira closes distance and shoves Holm into the fence. The Jackson-Wink product quickly reverses position. Vieira attempts to execute a throw and then lands a few punches as Holm scrambles up. They remain in the clinch, with Holm in control, pushing Vieira into the fence. Holm with a few short punches to the head. Holm defends a trip and lands a few punches. Holm is controlling the clinch and appears to be the stronger fighter, but there’s not a ton of action in this position. They trade knees and Holm drops for a single leg. Holm gives up on it and continues to grind away against the fence. Holm lands a few knees to the thigh of Vieira, who responds with knees of her own to the midsection. Holm defends another throw and the round ends in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Holm

Round 2
Holm begins with an outside leg kick. Vieira just misses the mark on a head kick. The Brazilian moves forward and fires off a straight right. Vieira closes the distance behind a combination, but Holm circles out. Another leg kick for Holm. Holm with a leg kick yet again, and she moves away from Vieira’s counter. Holm punches her way into the clinch and Vieira executes a nice hip toss. Holm immediately slides to the fence and posts an arm before standing. Vieira shoves Holm into the cage, but “The Preacher’s Daughter” turns off the cage and separates. Holm with a standing side kick to the head. Holm gets in on a single leg. Vieira hops on one leg while attacking a guillotine. Holm clings to the leg and atttempts to drag Viera to the mat. She leaves her neck exposed and Vieira briefly has a really tight standing rear-naked choke. Somehow Holm, with her face red and eyes bulging, turns out of it and shoves Vieira into the cage. Holm fires off a hard elbow from the clinch. Another elbow for Holm with time winding down. The round ends with Holm controlling position against the fence.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Vieira

Round 3
Holm goes back to the outside leg kick and Vieira answers with an inside low kick. Holm with a punching flurry, but Vieira counters her. Moments later, a front kick to the face from Vieira appears to catch Holm, who keeps her bearings and turns her foe into the cage. Holm is content to grind away from the clinch, but Vieira breaks free. Holm with an outside leg kick followed by a side kick to the midsection. Holm goes with a high kick, but Vieira blocks it. A right hand from Vieira lands flush, so Holm punches her way into the clinch. Vieira does a good job landing a few knees up the middle with her back to the cage. Holm continues to control head positioning with an underhook while occasionally flurrying with left hands. Holm with more short left hands to the head, and Vieira breaks free and lands a solid right hand. Holm lands a standing side kick but Vieira marches forward and sticks a stiff right nad to the chin. Holm ends the frame with a few knees in close quarters.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 4
Holm moves forward behind a combination, but Vieira answers with a clean right hand. Holm attempts to close the distance, but she’s stung by a right nand from Vieira. A front kick to the face lands for Holm but Vieira eats it without issue. Holm rushes forward but Vieira counters with the more significant punches. Vieira tags Holm with a combination. They briefly clinch and Vieira sticks another right. Holm’s blitzes aren’t effectively, but a standing side kick puts Vieira on her seat and Holm follows with a body kick when she stands. Another Vieira right hand catches Holm coming in. Holm forces the clinch but eats an uppercut in the process. Vieira is able to separate and circle away. A straight right snaps Holm’s head back. It’s another close round, but Vieira counters effectively with a punching combination yet again as Holm wades forward. Holm continues to throw a variety of kicks, but the punching exchanges are going Vieira’s way. Holm with another furious flurry before the bantamweights clinch at the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Holm

Round 5
The combatants hug to start the round. Vieira gets Holm’s attention with a head kick. They clinch, and Vieira breaks with a spinning elbow. Holm with a big left hand into the clinch. Vieira breaks free and Holm attacks with a front kick to the body. Holm forces the clinch again and the fighters stall before they reach the fence. Holm lands a short elbow on the break. Vieira counters a kick with a solid right hand. Holm forces the clinch and shoves Vieira into the cage, where she lands a knee. Vieira separates, but Holm lands a pair of nice front kicks to the face. A glancing head kick also finds the mark for Holm. Vieira counters an onrushing Holm with an uppercut. Holm changes levels and grabs a single leg. She shoves Vieira into the fence with less than 2:00 to go. Holm lets go of the leg but maintains the underhook. A short right hook lands for Holm on the break. Holm with a kick to the body and they clinch again. Holm shoves Vieira back into the fence. On the break, Holm with a flurry of punches. Holm stuffs an ensuing takedown from Vieira, turns her foe into the fence and lands several short punches. Holm drops for a takedown, can't get it and then lands some punches to the thigh before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)

The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Holly Holm via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Angelo picks Holly Holm because she can turn the fight into a kickboxing match and has excellent takedown defense. He notes that Vieira's charging forward plays into Holm's counter-striking. He doesn't factor in the layoff because Holm has never been an active fighter. He expects a decision win for Holm and suggests a prop bet on Holm by decision.

Holly Holm by decision
"holly holm by decision is probably the best bet in this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Big Brady picks Holly Holm to win by decision, citing her superior striking, cardio, and competition level. He notes Vieira has a grappling advantage but doubts she can out-grapple Holm for five rounds. His only concern is Holm's age (40) and 19-month layoff, but he believes if she looks like she did against Irene Aldana, she should cruise. He sees no path to victory for Vieira unless Holm is old.

"i like holly holm to win i like calling him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Cody believes Holly Holm's striking volume, improved wrestling, and five-round experience will be too much for Ketlen Vieira. He notes Holm's lateral mobility and speed, and that Vieira has been outstruck in most of her UFC fights. He is confident Holm wins but finds the -240 moneyline a bit steep, preferring to bet Holm by decision or late-round finishes.

Holm round 4 (+2500), Holm round 5 (+3000), Holm by decision
"i'm willing to pay if i need to but i'd like to improve it and whereas normally i would just hammer up this holly holm by decision i almost do get that bad impression as you mentioned that home could …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)

The host discusses the main event but does not make a clear pick. He mentions Holly Holm's age and questions whether she can still compete at 40, but does not state a preference. He also notes that the fight could go to decision and includes it in a totals parlay (over 4.5 rounds), but does not pick a winner.

over 4.5 rounds (part of totals parlay)
"home vieta over four and a half"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Paul likes Holly Holm to win but is hesitant due to the -240 price and Holm's age (40). He notes Holm's striking and improved wrestling, but says he doesn't love the moneyline. He is interested in sprinkling on Holm round 4 (+2500) and round 5 (+3000) if Vieira shows up like she did against Yana Kunitskaya, as Holm could finish her late.

Holm round 4 (+2500), Holm round 5 (+3000)
"i like holly holm to win -240 scares me a little bit off she obviously she's 40 years old um but like i mean she's still in damn good shape for her age the volume is always there obviously she's …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The MMA Guru picks Holly Holm, citing her superior striking, conditioning, and athleticism. He thinks Ketlen Vieira lacks KO power and will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He predicts Holm will lose the first round but win the next four via decision.

"i'm going to go with holly holm i'm going to go decision win"
WIN vs Miesha Tate
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · Nov 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ketlen Vieira 0 113 of 263 42% 156 of 313 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Miesha Tate 0 122 of 276 44% 145 of 302 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ketlen Vieira 0 14 of 38 36% 18 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 13 of 38 34% 16 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:52
2 Ketlen Vieira 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 21 of 54 38% 21 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ketlen Vieira 0 20 of 55 36% 28 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 24 of 57 42% 26 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
4 Ketlen Vieira 0 20 of 43 46% 50 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Miesha Tate 0 31 of 54 57% 44 of 70 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:34
5 Ketlen Vieira 0 30 of 73 41% 31 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 33 of 73 45% 38 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ketlen Vieira 113 of 263 42% 95 of 243 14 of 16 4 of 4 105 of 254 8 of 9 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 122 of 276 44% 52 of 175 60 of 88 10 of 13 110 of 260 12 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ketlen Vieira 14 of 38 36% 12 of 36 1 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 36 1 of 2 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 13 of 38 34% 8 of 24 4 of 11 1 of 3 13 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Ketlen Vieira 29 of 54 53% 24 of 48 2 of 3 3 of 3 29 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 21 of 54 38% 14 of 42 6 of 10 1 of 2 21 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ketlen Vieira 20 of 55 36% 18 of 52 2 of 3 0 of 0 20 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 24 of 57 42% 4 of 28 15 of 24 5 of 5 21 of 54 3 of 3 0 of 0
4 Ketlen Vieira 20 of 43 46% 16 of 39 4 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 38 5 of 5 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 31 of 54 57% 8 of 27 21 of 25 2 of 2 24 of 45 7 of 9 0 of 0
5 Ketlen Vieira 30 of 73 41% 25 of 68 5 of 5 0 of 0 28 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 33 of 73 45% 18 of 54 14 of 18 1 of 1 31 of 70 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ketlen Vieira vs. Miesha Tate

Round 1
At long last, we have reached the main event. It’s been a journey tonight. Vieira (11-2, 5-2 UFC) will try to get back in the win column against former champ Tate (19-7, 6-4 UFC). The cage commander for this final fight of the night is referee Jason Herzog, and both with an eye on a crack at the bantamweight belt in the future touch hands to start things out. Vieira captures the center of the cage in the early going, but they keep a very safe range from the other to not land punches or kicks. They take turns following the other, until Vieira sits down with a right hand to smack Tate in the face. Tate tries to jab the body a few times, and Vieira is there to pop her with a left hand over the top. Tate swings, misses, and gets countered by the Brazilian. Vieira sticks out a crisp jab, and her range is giving Tate pause at how to get in on her. When Tate jumps forward into a one-two, Vieira swats it out of the way and dances back when Tate aims a kick at her leg. Tate appears jittery as she hops back and forth to try to get in on Vieira, throwing a single front kick to the body. Vieira tags Tate with a right hand when Tate closes in on her, and the former champ lands a pair of successful punches. Caught celebrating her work a little too long, Vieira counters her with heavier blows before Tate can escape. The distance between the two is vast, and Tate resorts to staggering and stutter-stepping her way in. Tate chases Vieira down and slugs her in the face with a combination, and when Vieira tries to answer her with strikes of her own, Tate ties her up and presses her into the wall. Although Vieira separates, Tate knees her once to the body. Tate ducks a punch combination to push Vieira back into the wire, and like before, Vieira is able to separate without issue. From a distance, Vieira shoots in for a takedown, and Tate is able to stop it from succeeding. They end the round in an awkward position with Tate’s hand on her foe’s backside.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate

Round 2
A tense exchange begins the second round, and Vieira lands cleanly on Tate’s left eye, forcing some reddening and immediate swelling. Tate pays it no mind as she kicks Vieira in the head, but it is only a glancing blow as the Brazilian rolls with it. Tate keeps reaching out to try to get in on her opponent, and she eats a Vieira punch so that she can score a solid right hand. The former champ plants the fall of her foot on Vieira’s torso, interrupting Vieira from landing a strike. Tate winds up with a stiff right hand, nailing Vieira and forcing her to reel. In response, Vieira scores a left hand down the pipe. Vieira chops at the leg, and they both start trading heavy leather in front of one another. Tate lands, and Vieira is stuck countering instead of leading the exchanges. This allows Tate to land on her first before replying. Tate connects with a big kick to Vieira’s face, and she sees that it has done some damage as she follows it with a chain of punches. Tate strings together a few one-twos, and Vieira shakes it off and lands her own thudding left hook on the side of Tate’s head. The woman formerly known as “Takedown” attempts one in the open cage, and Vieira stuffs it without issue. She tries again, and Vieira stops that one as well and separates. Tate walks Vieira down with kicks and punches, while not appearing too worried about the single counters that come back at her. Tate scores with a pair of clean right hands, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate

Round 3
Tate comes out firing to start off the second round, surprising the Brazilian early with a short blitz of blows. Backing away before the counters follow suit, Tate changes things up with an inside leg kick and then one on the outside. Vieira leans into a left hand, and after a lull in the action, Tate reaches out with a left hand to stop a punch and she pokes Vieira square in the eyeball. Herzog acknowledges this and brings in the doctor, and after a minute to clear things out, Vieira is ready to go again. Tate wants to capitalize on this accident by chasing Vieira down with jabs and follow-up right hands. Tate keeps a low stance, and she punches the body while Vieira is sitting firmly on counters. Tate punches, slips the response and jabs out again. Tate gives chase, and a big right hand gets caught under Vieira’s armpit. Tate lands a right, tries to clinch up and eats a short right hand for her effort. Tate goes up high with a kick, and when it collides off of Vieira’s guard, Vieira aims a right hand down the middle. Tate advances, and Vieira swings a pair of looping hooks to keep Tate honest. The former champ lands a single strike, while Vieira’s prepared counter of an uppercut and a right hand knocks Tate back. The Brazilian lands cleanly in another exchange, forcing Tate to change levels and pursue a takedown. Vieira defends it well and separates without going down to her knees. When Vieira gets up, Tate meets her outstretched leg with a kick, and Vieira lances her with a right hand in a sharp retort. Tate rushes forward to clinch her up to end the round, and she holds on to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 4
They meet and touch gloves in the center of the cage to initiate the championship rounds. Tate starts off aggressively, chasing her opponent down and landing punches. Tate clubs her opponent with a crisp right hand, and she escapes when Vieira sets up a counter. The Brazilian lands a few punches from a distance, and they trade heavily suddenly. Tate mixes things up with a takedown attempt, and she finally hits it and gets Vieira down. As “Fenomeno” stands up, Tate takes her back and looks to hit a mat return by tripping Vieira down. Clinched up, Tate gives up on the takedown entry so that she can land short strikes to the body and head. Staying tight keeps Tate away from eating any counters, and she presses her full body weight on her opponent that had never before fought beyond the third round. Vieira grits her teeth and pushes Tate away, and she starts lunging out with jabs. Tate marks her up with a big punch, and Vieira blasts her right back. Both women wear it well, and Tate kicks Vieira in the body from afar. Tate lands a few punches before coming in to clinch, and she knees Vieira in the body once. Vieira gives several punches back to the midsection, until Tate has had enough of that and pushes away. A Tate leg kick is met with a straight left hand, and Vieira catches Tate coming in with a string of punches. Vieira loads up on a right hand, and she elbows Tate when Tate tries to clinch. Vieira welcomes the clinch again in the open cage, as she repeatedly punches Tate in the side as she did before. Tate holds on tight with a clinch, and she releases a knee to the head. Another knee scores for the former champ, who ends the round in the Thai clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate

Round 5
The bantamweights touch hands and then come in to hug to commence the last round. Vieira lets her hands go when they start fighting, and she connects cleanly with power punches as Tate looks to be safe. They come together in a clinch, and Tate works the body before Vieira separates. Vieira tags her opponent with an uppercut and a left hand, and Tate is forced to back off and gather her thoughts. When she does, the ex-champ kicks the body and then tries to get a knee off to the chest. Tate kicks the body, but Vieira is there to bang with her as she starts throwing hard. As Tate backs off, Vieira leans on a long jab, and she busts Tate’s nose open with a powerful knee and a few punches up top. Tate misses on one-twos as Vieira appears to be the fresher, more composed woman right now. Tate springs back and forth, jabbing out but not throwing nearly as much as she did before the nose got cracked. Tate sneaks a right hand over the top, but Vieira throws three back at her that are much heavier. They trade single jabs, and Tate steps forward into a one-two that knocks Vieira back. Vieira returns fire with jabs that continue to pound into Tate’s bloodied nose, and the former champion’s face has transformed into a crimson mask. Hardly recognizable, Tate does not care, as she continues to swing punches while Vieira is tight and crisp with her boxing. The jabs have shut Tate’s left eye as well as making her nose bleed furiously, and Tate marches on and kicks her in the side. Tate continues to pour it on as Vieira stays on her bicycle, successfully scoring with laser-accurate strikes that barely register for Tate. The fight comes to an end after 25 minutes of action, and it could be anyone’s guess who wins this fight based on how close most of the rounds were. UFC Fight Night 198, and a consecutive weekend stretch of 10 UFC cards, comes to an end with an event that brought 10 decisions in 11 bouts. We all could use a week off, and we will have it. When the UFC returns in December, it will be on ESPN for U.S. audiences with a barnburner of a main event between Rob Font and Jose Aldo. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Vieira)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Vieira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Tate)

The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Miesha Tate via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Angelo picks Ketlen Vieira, citing her power, size, and solid takedown defense (92%). He notes Miesha Tate's striking is poor and she relies on takedowns, but Vieira has stuffed takedowns from Olympic wrestler Sarah McMahon. He expects Vieira to win by decision or late stoppage, and placed a moneyline bet at even money (+100). He also mentions live betting opportunities.

Moneyline bet at +100, 1 unit; DraftKings price 7900; monkey knife fight more/more; mentions live betting if Tate has takedown success early
"caitlyn is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by late finish (4th or 5th round). He notes that Ketlen Vieira has never fought five rounds and tends to slow down in the third round, as seen in fights against Eubanks and Kanutsukai. He believes Tate's improved striking and wrestling will allow her to survive early and take over as Vieira fades. He sees a late stoppage as very live.

win by TKO or submission, fourth or fifth round
"I'm gonna take misha tate to win give me like a fourth or fifth round late late round uh later on stoppage here for tate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Cody believes Miesha Tate is undervalued as a slight underdog. He points to Tate's championship pedigree, improved striking, and excellent conditioning for a five-round fight. He highlights Ketlen Vieira's history of gassing in the third round of her fights, including against Yana Kunitskaya where she was out-struck 44-7. Cody argues that Tate's wrestling is good enough to stuff takedowns and that if the fight stays standing, Tate has the advantage. He expects Tate to take over in rounds four and five as Vieira fades.

"what am i missing here paul like what i don't under 100 and understand why uh it's misha tate's slight underdog status versus ket and vieira"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Daniel Levi picks Ketlen Vieira despite her history of mental lapses and cardio issues. He notes that Vieira has superior skills across the board, including judo and power, but worries about her hitting a wall in later rounds. He believes Miesha Tate is stiff and slow, and that Vieira has no pressure on her in this fight. However, he acknowledges Tate's toughness and comeback ability, making this a hesitant pick.

"i think vieira's the better fighter honestly across the board... i'm gonna go with kellen vieira she's been very quiet very business business-minded approach this week"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Miesha Tate

Lock sees this as a classic early Vera vs late Tate fight. He thinks Vera gasses badly after round two, and Tate will take over with takedowns and top control. He notes Tate is hunting a finish and might get it late. Lock likes the under 4.5 rounds at +140 and Tate inside the distance at +375. He also sprinkled Tate round 4 and round 5 props.

Under 4.5 rounds +140, Miesha Tate inside the distance +375, Miesha Tate round 4 +2500, Miesha Tate round 5 +3000, Ketlen Vieira by KO +600
"I like the under four and a half at plus 140ish... I think those takedowns will come a little bit easier for tate as the fight wears on."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting that Vieira's gas tank is a major concern, especially in a five-round fight. He references the Yana Kunitskaya fight where Vieira missed weight and gassed hard at the end of round three. Paul believes that if Vieira cannot put Tate away early, Tate will take over late. He also mentions that this could be a good live bet opportunity if Vieira slows down in round three and Tate is still available at plus money.

Paul mentions this could be an even better live bet if we get into round three and Vieira starts slowing down; he notes Tate was plus money (-105) at DraftKings.
"i'm gonna have some money on misha tape straight up but i feel like potentially this could be an even better live bet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Ketlen Vieira. He notes that Vieira slows down in later rounds, as seen against Yana Kunitskaya and Sijara Eubanks. He highlights Tate's championship experience, composure, and conditioning. He expects a stalemate on the feet early, but Tate to win scrambles and land ground and pound in the later rounds, finishing with a fourth-round TKO.

fourth round TKO via ground and pound
"i'm going with misha tate as the favorite here i reckon she's got this one in the bag"
Expert Picks (1)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Daniel Levi highlights Ketlen Vieira's black belts in jiu-jitsu and judo, and her ability to trip and control opponents on the ground. He notes Yana Kunitskaya's chin issues, recalling she was dropped by Aspen Ladd and had her face bloodied against Miranda. Levi believes Vieira is the better fighter across the board and expects her to win by decision or submission, though he acknowledges Kunitskaya can score points on the feet.

"I'm going with caitlyn vieira to win this fight bottom line either decision or submission"