UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis Next Fight
Age 36
Height 6' 3"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 49
Height 6' 2"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 240 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Chris Daukaus
6.05 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
4.64 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Aleksei Oleinik
3.29 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.8 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
1.82 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
37.0% TD Def.
1.9 Sub. Avg
Chris Daukaus
Moneyline
DraftKings -190
KO/TKO
BetWay -125
Submission
BetWay +2000
Decision
BetWay +600
Aleksei Oleinik
Moneyline
FanDuel +162
KO/TKO
BetWay +1000
Submission
BetWay +225
Decision
BetWay +700
Chris Daukaus - Fight History
TKO (punches) R1 2:40 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khalil Rountree Jr. 1 16 of 24 66% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Chris Daukaus 0 8 of 21 38% 14 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 1 16 of 24 66% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Chris Daukaus 0 8 of 21 38% 14 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khalil Rountree Jr. 16 of 24 66% 12 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 17 3 of 4 2 of 3
Chris Daukaus 8 of 21 38% 6 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 16 of 24 66% 12 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 17 3 of 4 2 of 3
Chris Daukaus 8 of 21 38% 6 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Angelo picks Rountree, citing his Muay Thai, speed, and kicks as the difference. He notes Daukaus is a pure boxer who doesn't use takedowns, and the speed advantage at light heavyweight will be key. He expects a decision win.

"I've got to go with Khalil here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Big Brady picks Khalil Rountree to win by first-round knockout. He notes Rountree's power and aggression when he is 'on', but questions his consistency. He doubts Daukaus's durability and speed at light heavyweight, and believes Rountree will finish him early. He mentions Daukaus's three consecutive knockout losses at heavyweight and thinks the weight cut won't help.

first round knockout
"Round Tree Round Tree first round knockout for me but sometimes Roundtree doesn't show up man sometimes he doesn't show up"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Cody picks Rountree, citing Daukaus' lack of cardio at heavyweight and the unknown of his 40-pound cut to light heavyweight. He notes Daukaus has never attempted a takedown in the UFC and has no history of grappling, while Rountree has shown he can go three rounds. He thinks if the fight stretches, Rountree's power and durability will prevail. He also mentions a potential live betting opportunity if Daukaus takes Rountree down early.

Daukaus by submission at 20-1 (opened), now 8-1; mentions a 14-1 still available
"I think I'm gonna add joke a little Roundtree and uh it would be like a good live betting situation if he does get taken down"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)

James has no strong opinion on this fight, calling it a 'weird one' with too much volatility. He notes Rountree is inconsistent and Daukaus is moving down in weight after three bad knockout losses. He doesn't want to speak on it further and says he has nothing to say.

"I don't really have a big opinion about this one... anything can happen."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Rountree is on a winning streak and has improved his confidence and aggressiveness. He is dangerous on the feet and should keep the fight upright. Daukaus is dropping to light heavyweight after three straight KO losses at heavyweight. Rountree has the power advantage and should knock him out. The fight not going to decision is a strong prop.

fight doesn't go to decision, Rountree by KO
"I think that Roundtree will do a good enough job in terms of keeping this fight upright and utilizing his Superior striking to eventually find the chin of darkest and put him all clean here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Paul picked Daukaus at plus 182 two weeks ago and is confident in the move to light heavyweight. He believes Daukaus' speed and power from heavyweight will translate well, and that he has a significant grappling advantage if he chooses to use it. He notes Rountree's poor ground game and thinks Daukaus can get the fight to the mat and finish. He also mentions the submission prop at 20-1 that got smashed down to 8-1.

Bet Daukaus at +182 two weeks ago; mentions Daukaus by submission prop at 20-1 (opened), now 8-1
"I took him out like plus 182 like two weeks ago like basically as soon as the number opened I was just like I think he's at least live"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr. over Chris Daukaus, stating Daukaus was never good at heavyweight and is moving down to a higher skill division. He criticizes Daukaus's poor distance management and notes he has been brutally finished three times in a row. He predicts Rountree will KO Daukaus in round one.

KO in round one
"I'm going with a little round tree over Chris Dorcas"
KO (punch) R1 0:23 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Chris Daukaus 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Chris Daukaus 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 16 0 of 1 3 of 4
Chris Daukaus 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 16 0 of 1 3 of 4
Chris Daukaus 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Angelo picks Daukaus despite Rozenstruik being a 2-1 favorite, because he believes Daukaus is the better striker with better footwork, speed, and volume. He notes both have power and suspect chins, making it essentially a 50-50 fight. He advises not to bet on this fight due to the volatility, but suggests using both in knockout Kings entries.

Do not bet on this fight; use both in knockout Kings entries.
"I want to pick dacas here I think he's the better Striker and that sounds stupid because technically speaking I think rosenstruck is but I think Chris has the better footwork he's active he's faster he's busier"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Big Brady picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik, emphasizing his superior power and questioning Daukaus's chin after being knocked out by Curtis Blaydes. He notes Rozenstruik has been more active and hits harder, and expects a first-round knockout. He criticizes the UFC for feeding Daukaus to a heavy hitter.

Rozenstruik wins by first round knockout
"I'm gonna go rosenstruck to win by first round knockout but I think somebody's getting knocked out here and in probably in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Cody picks Rozenstruik, citing his power and kickboxing background. He notes Daukaus has durability issues, having been knocked out by Lewis and Blaydes. He thinks Rozenstruik will land a counter right hand and knock him out. He suggests Rozenstruik by knockout or under 1.5 rounds.

Rozenstruik by knockout, under 1.5 rounds
"I'm going to lean towards Die Trying gets in the face lands a couple shots gets his confidence going and then just walks into a counter right hand from rosen's truck the flat lines them so give me a rose …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Lock picks Rozenstruik to win, likely by knockout, but he is not comfortable paying the chalk price. He notes that Rozenstruik doesn't always maximize his knockout opportunities, making him hesitant even on the KO line at -125. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he suggests a pump and dump: buy Rozenstruik this weekend, sell after the win, because Rozenstruik has a ceiling and won't crack the top five again. He also mentions Daukaus might be cut after a third straight loss.

pump and dump on PredictionStrike
"I'll go with Rosen strike I'll just say pump and dump buy him this weekend knocks out Chris Chris talk to someone say Curtis"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Paul picks Rozenstruik, noting his power and that Daukaus has been knocked out by heavy hitters. He is more interested in the under 1.5 rounds prop, as he expects a finish. He acknowledges Rozenstruik is coming off a knockout loss but thinks Daukaus' durability is a bigger issue.

Under 1.5 rounds (-155)
"I'm gonna pick Rosen strike for the purposes of this show but I'm more interested in the under one and a half rounds like daucus doesn't yeah I mean you you summed it up very very nicely"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The MMA Guru picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Chris Daukaus by first-round KO. He criticizes Daukaus's chin and believes he was exposed in his fight against Shamil Abdurakhimov, where he got hit a lot. Rozenstruik has a reach advantage and power, and Daukaus is coming off a loss by his brother. He predicts Rozenstruik will put him down early.

"I think Rosen strike's gonna put him in a spliff so I think Rosen strike owes him in the first round puts him down"
LOSS vs Curtis Blaydes
TKO (punches) R2 0:17 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Mar 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Curtis Blaydes 1 30 of 63 47% 30 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Chris Daukaus 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 23 of 53 43% 23 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Daukaus 0 12 of 37 32% 12 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Curtis Blaydes 1 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Chris Daukaus 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Curtis Blaydes 30 of 63 47% 23 of 55 1 of 2 6 of 6 24 of 54 0 of 0 6 of 9
Chris Daukaus 13 of 38 34% 12 of 36 1 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Curtis Blaydes 23 of 53 43% 17 of 46 0 of 1 6 of 6 23 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Daukaus 12 of 37 32% 11 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Curtis Blaydes 7 of 10 70% 6 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 9
Chris Daukaus 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes confidently, citing his dominant wrestling and astronomical takedown numbers. He notes that Blaydes took down Rosenstriuk, Volkov, and others multiple times. He thinks Chris Daukaus' boxing and BJJ won't matter because he won't be able to settle into a rhythm with the constant takedown threat. He sees Blaydes winning a grueling fight.

"i tend to agree because curtis is such a dominant wrestler"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Big Brady picks Curtis Blaydes to win by second or third round TKO. He notes that Blaydes has a massive wrestling advantage and will take Daukaus down at will, as Daukaus has shown poor takedown defense in earlier fights. He also mentions that Daukaus has no submissions on his record, so he won't threaten off his back. Brady acknowledges that Daukaus could knock Blaydes out, but Blaydes has only lost to Francis Ngannou and Derrick Lewis, two of the hardest hitters in the division, so he doesn't see Daukaus doing the same.

Blaydes wins by TKO in round 2 or 3
"I think blades is going to take him down at will, I think blades is going to take him down easily here and eventually break dawkisson and probably finish him in the second or third round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Cody agrees Blaydes should win but is wary of the price. He highlights Daukaus' cardio issues and poor chin, and Blaydes' ability to grind with takedowns and elbows. He thinks Blaydes could get a TKO finish due to his weight and pressure. He notes Daukaus has a puncher's chance but sees Blaydes as the logical pick.

puncher's chance for Daukaus by KO
"i think the logical pick would be at blades blades grinds and that's what i'm going with"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Daniel Levi picks Curtis Blaydes, citing his relentless takedown attempts and wrestling pressure as the key factor. He notes that Blaydes attempted 25 takedowns against Volkov and landed 14, and that fighters who keep shooting without discouragement are matchup problems. He acknowledges Daukaus has improved his physique and takedown defense is unknown, but believes Blaydes will implement his game plan and likely win by ground-and-pound stoppage. He also mentions Blaydes could catch Daukaus on the feet if Daukaus is too worried about the takedown.

Blaydes by KO/TKO (ground and pound), fight doesn't go to decision
"I have to favor blades for that reason man... these guys that can attempt takedown after takedown after takedown without getting discouraged... those guys are such a matchup problem"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

The host is very confident in Blaydes, believing his wrestling and strength will overwhelm Daukaus. He notes Daukaus lacks the power of Lewis or Ngannou, and that Blaydes can win on the feet or via takedowns. He expects a finish by round 2 or 3 via ground and pound.

Blaydes inside the distance; Blaydes round 2 TKO via ground and pound
"i like blades a decent amount on this like i said i think it's very easy to break down this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Paul sees Blaydes as a clear favorite due to his wrestling advantage and size. He expects Blaydes to be cautious early but then dominate with takedowns and ground control. He notes Blaydes' chin is compromised but believes he will avoid danger and grind out a win. He considers Blaydes a solid parlay piece early in the week.

parlay piece
"I got curtis blades to weigh and i think curtis blade wins this fight probably eight out of ten times"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

The MMA Guru picks Curtis Blaydes by second-round arm triangle submission over Chris Daukaus. He cites Blaydes' size and wrestling advantage, noting Daukaus hasn't shown his black belt jiu-jitsu in the UFC. The Guru expects Blaydes to be calm due to Daukaus' lack of intimidation, get a double leg, and grind out a submission. He criticizes the 4-1 odds as making betting pointless.

second round arm triangle submission; hates the 4-1 odds
"i'm gonna go with curtis blades here"
LOSS vs Derrick Lewis
KO (punches) R1 3:36 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derrick Lewis 1 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Chris Daukaus 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derrick Lewis 1 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Chris Daukaus 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derrick Lewis 14 of 28 50% 12 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 24 3 of 4 0 of 0
Chris Daukaus 10 of 19 52% 6 of 14 1 of 1 3 of 4 8 of 15 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derrick Lewis 14 of 28 50% 12 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 24 3 of 4 0 of 0
Chris Daukaus 10 of 19 52% 6 of 14 1 of 1 3 of 4 8 of 15 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derrick Lewis vs. Chris Daukaus

Round 1
When the dust settles after this heavyweight headliner, it is very possibly only one man will remain standing. Two-time title challenger Lewis (25-8, 1 NC; 16-6 UFC) will try to get back to his winning ways and aim to earn the UFC’s all-time knockout honor of 13 when he faces hard-nosed Philadelphia-based brawler Daukaus (12-3, 4-0 UFC). In slugfest that might not last long, referee Mark Smith has put on his proverbial hard hat and is ready for whatever comes. They touch gloves, and any extended fists will come out much faster next time. Taking the center of the cage is “The Black Beast,” and the two measure one another for the first 50 seconds until Daukaus leaps forward with a short flurry. Lewis pushes him away and gets warned for pointing his fingers out, and Daukaus responds with a heavy leg kick. Daukaus comes in with a right hook, and Lewis slips it and just misses with an uppercut. Lewis blocks a punch and comes out with a big right, and they both jab at one another with fingers outstretched. Lewis lands a heavy leg kick and looses a fast combination, but Daukaus does not appear worse for wear. Daukaus darts in and out to attack, getting off a right hand and moving away before Lewis can sit down on the power counter he so desperately seeks. Lewis comes up high with a kick that glances off Daukaus’ forearm, and Daukaus kicks at him low to decent effect. The leg kicks start to add up for Daukaus, and Lewis visibly appears frustrated from eating those kicks. “The Black Beast” successfully scores a jumping switch kick, and he might have Daukaus hurt. Lewis smells blood and unleashes a bombardment of blows that rocks Daukaus against the cage. Lewis trips him up as he continues to work Daukaus over, and he nails Daukaus in the chest with a knee to shake him up badly. Daukaus tries to swing back at him, but he is wobbled and cannot land cleanly as Lewis is putting it on him. Letting loose with a trio of thunderous uppercuts, Lewis knocks Daukaus back, off of his feet and out of his consciousness. Knowing his work here is done, Lewis walks off, as the proud owner of the most knockouts in UFC history. Lewis takes his groin cup out of his shorts, and he throws it into the crowd – a fan happily grabs the strange souvenir without gloves on. In victory, Lewis tells the promotion that he would love a title shot, so long as it does not have to be five rounds – he has no interest in preparing for five-round fights anymore. With that, we say goodbye to the UFC in 2021, and we go on break from this promotion for nearly a month until UFC on ESPN 32 comes back with Calvin Katter vs. Giga Chikadze on display on Jan. 15. We will certainly be here for it, and we hope that after you enjoy your holidays, you are here for it too.

The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Chris Daukaus R1 3:36 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Angelo picks Chris Daukaus with a unit on the moneyline at -140. He believes Daukaus is more technically sound, has more power, and should win. He notes that every Derrick Lewis prediction is the same: pick the other guy but give the caveat that Lewis can knock anyone out. Angelo thinks Daukaus will do the right thing and win, but acknowledges Lewis has a puncher's chance.

1 unit on moneyline at -140
"full money line minus 140 i got a unit on chris dawkins to do the right thing and win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Big Brady picks Chris Daukaus by first-round knockout, citing his high volume (9.03 significant strikes per minute) and improved cardio after quitting his police job. He notes Lewis's low volume and susceptibility to being hit, but acknowledges Lewis's power and comeback ability. He expects Daukaus to land volume and finish Lewis early, but admits Lewis can never be counted out.

first round knockout
"give me chris dawkins to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Cody likes Daukaus's speed and mobility at heavyweight, noting his fast hands and BJJ black belt. He acknowledges Daukaus's cardio concerns from his last loss but believes it has improved. He thinks Daukaus can win wherever the fight goes, but warns that Derrick Lewis always carries KO power, so Daukaus must be careful. Cody picks Daukaus but is cautious about the line.

"I think docus is going to be all over him early but if derek lewis is going to derrick lewis and survives for whatever reason two or three rounds at least we know for him dude could hit you at …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Daniel Levi picks Derrick Lewis to win by knockout. He acknowledges Chris Daukaus's fast hands and impressive 4-0 UFC start with four KOs, but questions Daukaus's durability over five rounds, noting his past knockout loss. Levi believes Lewis's experience and comeback ability, as seen against Volkov and Blaydes, will be key. He expects Lewis to survive the early onslaught and finish Daukaus in the later rounds.

Lewis by KO in rounds 3-5
"I'm going Derek the Black Beast Lewis man to come out here and knock out Chris Daukaus."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Jacob picks Chris Daukaus, citing Lewis' disappointing performance against Ciryl Gane where he quit. He believes Lewis is on the decline and that Daukaus is a much better fighter from top to bottom. Jacob hopes Daukaus avoids the one big shot and wins to bring fresh talent to the top of the division. He thinks Daukaus should win easily.

"chris dawkins is just such a better fighter than derek lewis from top to bottom"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Chris Daukaus

The host picks Daukaus by KO, citing his superior boxing and movement. He thinks Daukaus will stay safe, work the body, and eventually finish Lewis. However, he acknowledges Lewis's power and is not fully confident, so he prefers the KO prop at +120 over the moneyline.

Daukaus by KO (+120)
"I'm going to take darkest i'm going to take darkest by ko that that seems to be the obvious play here uh that is currently sitting at uh well i can't define it here it is docus pacquiao plus 120 …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Paul agrees with Daukaus but is more cautious, citing Daukaus's lack of shown wrestling and the size difference (Lewis is 270-280 lbs on fight night). He compares the matchup to the Volkov fight where Lewis was losing until a last-second KO. Paul warns that Lewis only needs one strike, so he advises against getting too heavily invested at -140.

"I'm with you as well I like doc dawkis as well in this spot but I don't like him that much because like you mentioned the wrestling he hasn't really shown the wrestling whatsoever"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

The MMA Guru picks Derrick Lewis as an underdog to win by first-round KO. He notes Daukaus is hittable and has poor head movement, as seen in the Abdurakhimov fight. He thinks Lewis has the power and size advantage, and Daukaus is not big enough to grapple with Lewis. He predicts Lewis will land a big right hand over the top for the KO.

first round KO
"i'm going with the underdog derrick lewis here over chris dawkis"
TKO (punches and elbows) R2 1:23 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Daukaus 0 23 of 63 36% 23 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Abdurakhimov 2 38 of 93 40% 38 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Daukaus 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Abdurakhimov 1 28 of 65 43% 28 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
2 Chris Daukaus 0 4 of 16 25% 4 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Abdurakhimov 1 10 of 28 35% 10 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Daukaus 23 of 63 36% 13 of 48 6 of 11 4 of 4 22 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
Shamil Abdurakhimov 38 of 93 40% 34 of 88 2 of 3 2 of 2 18 of 58 2 of 5 18 of 30
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Daukaus 19 of 47 40% 9 of 32 6 of 11 4 of 4 18 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
Shamil Abdurakhimov 28 of 65 43% 25 of 62 1 of 1 2 of 2 12 of 39 2 of 5 14 of 21
2 Chris Daukaus 4 of 16 25% 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shamil Abdurakhimov 10 of 28 35% 9 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 19 0 of 0 4 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Angelo picks Daukaus, citing his speed, technical boxing, and combination striking. He notes that Abdurakhimov has more power but is less clean and hasn't fought in two years. Angelo believes Daukaus will use his speed and angles to put Abdurakhimov away, though he acknowledges the unknown of Daukaus' takedown defense.

Angelo likes Daukaus at $8,000 in DraftKings and suggests a moneyline bet or inside the distance. He also mentions the line has moved to -210 and recommends inside the distance decision no action at -170.
"Chris Dawkins wins this"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Big Brady picks Chris Daukaus to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Shamil Abdurakhimov is 40 years old, has a two-year layoff, and has health issues, while Daukaus has improved significantly and has power. He believes Daukaus will stuff takedowns and land a knockout.

first round knockout
"give me chris dawkins to win and chris stock is to get another first round at knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Cody picks Daukaus, citing his speed advantage, youth, and recent improvements. He notes Abdurakhimov is 40, hasn't fought in two years, and was throttled by Blaydes. He expects Daukaus to finish him, possibly inside the distance.

Daukaus inside the distance (+100)
"i expect uh darkest to get the job done"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Daniel Levi picks Chris Daukaus, citing his fast hands for a heavyweight and his black belt in jiu-jitsu. He notes that Daukaus has finished opponents quickly but has been finished himself when fights go past the first round. Levi is curious to see how Daukaus handles the second round but believes his speed and momentum will be enough against Shamil Abdurakhimov, who has been out for a while.

"i gotta go with chris dawkis the age gap the the speed the momentum all that"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Jacob picks Daukaus, calling him a real deal heavyweight prospect. He notes that Abdurakhimov's wrestling is not effective and that Daukaus has a ton of first-round finishes. Jacob believes this is a setup win for Daukaus and expects a finish.

Jacob likes Daukaus by KO/TKO at +120 and plans to include him in DraftKings lineup. He calls it a 'quadruple lock of the week' and mentions knockout Kings.
"Chris Dawkins honestly is a real deal Prodigy in the heavyweight Division"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Chris Daukaus

The host picks Chris Daukaus by first-round knockout. He believes Daukaus' striking is improving fight by fight and his speed and movement will keep Abdurakhimov at bay. He expects Daukaus to land crisp straight shots down the middle and eventually find the knockout blow. He notes that Abdurakhimov has the grappling advantage but Daukaus' striking is too good to fade.

"official prediction for this fight will be darkest and i'm going to take him to one by first round knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Paul picks Daukaus, noting his speed, boxing advantage, and youth. He mentions Abdurakhimov's age, layoff, and recent loss. He expects Daukaus to win but is unsure about the over/under rounds.

"i think dog is just dances around shamil um and honestly chamill is basically uh almost on the level with like olynyk at this point"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

The MMA Guru picks Chris Daukaus over Shamil Abdurakhimov, citing Daukaus' speed and power, and Abdurakhimov's two-year layoff and history of being knocked out. He notes that Daukaus showed good takedown defense against Alexei Oleinik and is a fast starter. He expects Abdurakhimov to be hesitant early due to ring rust, and Daukaus to land a counter blow and finish with a TKO in the first round.

first round tko
"i'm going to be going with chris dalcause here by first round tko over shimila abdurakimov"
TKO (punches) R1 1:55 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Daukaus 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Aleksei Oleinik 0 34 of 56 60% 34 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Daukaus 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Aleksei Oleinik 0 34 of 56 60% 34 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Daukaus 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 34 of 56 60% 32 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0 28 of 49 2 of 3 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Daukaus 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 34 of 56 60% 32 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0 28 of 49 2 of 3 4 of 4
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Daniel Levi is impressed with Chris Daukaus's hand speed and accuracy, noting his quick knockouts of Parker Porter and Nascimento. He believes Daukaus only needs 20-30 seconds of pocket exchanges to knock out Oleinik, who is a liability standing. Levi acknowledges Oleinik's 45 submission wins but thinks Daukaus has the grappling skills to avoid submissions and keep the fight standing. He expects a first-round knockout and sees Daukaus as a rising heavyweight prospect.

first round knockout
"i'm going with chris dyches by first round starching of alexia olynyk getting into that top ten"
KO (punches) R1 0:45 · UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Oct 11, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Daukaus 2 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Daukaus 2 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Daukaus 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 7 of 10
Rodrigo Nascimento 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Daukaus 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 7 of 10
Rodrigo Nascimento 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Nascimento, citing his legit BJJ black belt, 100% finish rate (75% by submission), and cardio advantage. He expects Nascimento to submit Daukaus in the second round. He notes Daukaus has bad cardio and has been submitted before, and that Nascimento's striking has improved. He advises waiting for the line to improve.

Nascimento by second round submission; Daukaus first round at +500
"i'm gonna take nacimento to win a buy i'm gonna say second round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Daniel picks Chris Daukaus as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He notes that Daukaus has slimmed down and looked impressive in his last fight, showing underrated hand speed. He thinks Nascimento is unproven against real competition and that this is closer to a 50/50 fight. Daniel is not calling Nascimento a fraud but sees value on Daukaus.

Daniel mentions that Daukaus has been losing weight and taking fighting more seriously. He also notes that Nascimento's debut was against a hand-picked opponent.
"Man i might actually take him for the upset i just think the line's off"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Daukaus has sharper hands and improving striking, while Nascimento is wild and has questionable cardio. Daukaus can land clean shots and potentially finish in the second or third round. However, Nascimento's size and BJJ are threats, making this a stay-away fight.

"i'm actually leaning chris doug is here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The Guru picks Nascimento, citing his size, athleticism, and patient approach. He notes Nascimento's takedown ability and ground control, and believes he will present challenges Daukaus hasn't faced. He predicts Nascimento will wobble Daukaus with strikes, then take him down and submit him with a rear-naked choke in the first or second round.

first or second round submission (rear-naked choke)
"first or second round nascamento feyer eventually cracks him wobbles him a little bit then goes for the takedown and gets a rear naked choke finish in the first or second round"
WIN vs Parker Porter
TKO (punches and knee) R1 4:28 · UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Aug 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Daukaus 2 37 of 59 62% 45 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Parker Porter 0 17 of 52 32% 18 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Daukaus 2 37 of 59 62% 45 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Parker Porter 0 17 of 52 32% 18 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Daukaus 37 of 59 62% 29 of 49 4 of 6 4 of 4 29 of 50 6 of 7 2 of 2
Parker Porter 17 of 52 32% 12 of 44 1 of 4 4 of 4 14 of 47 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Daukaus 37 of 59 62% 29 of 49 4 of 6 4 of 4 29 of 50 6 of 7 2 of 2
Parker Porter 17 of 52 32% 12 of 44 1 of 4 4 of 4 14 of 47 3 of 5 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Big Brady thinks Chris Daukaus is the more skilled striker and hits harder. He criticizes Parker Porter's lack of fight shape and believes Daukaus will knock him out in the first round. He notes both have been knocked out before but favors Daukaus' power.

first round knockout
"i'm going to pick christopher dawkins to get a first round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Parker Porter

Daniel Levi picks Parker Porter. He notes that Chris Daukaus is not as talented as his brother Kyle, and that Porter is the bigger, more physical fighter. He expects Porter to use his size and power to get takedowns and control the fight. He also mentions that Daukaus has been knocked out before and that Porter's game plan is straightforward.

Porter by decision or TKO; Daukaus is the less talented brother; Porter's size advantage
"i'm gonna go with parker porter and i hope he gets on the mic and calls out jon jones"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Parker Porter

The MMA Guru picks Parker Porter based on experience, noting that Porter has fought higher-level competition outside the UFC, including Gabriel Gonzaga. He dismisses both fighters as unskilled but believes Porter's experience on short notice gives him the edge.

"i'm gonna be going with parker porter he's got more experience and i just think that's going to be a good factor to have on a short notice heavyweight bout"
Aleksei Oleinik - Fight History
LOSS vs Ilir Latifi
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Oct 01, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilir Latifi 0 38 of 48 79% 74 of 88 3 of 6 50% 0 0 8:29
Aleksei Oleinik 0 28 of 70 40% 68 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilir Latifi 0 11 of 14 78% 45 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:16
Aleksei Oleinik 0 4 of 12 33% 24 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ilir Latifi 0 17 of 21 80% 19 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Aleksei Oleinik 0 17 of 30 56% 30 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ilir Latifi 0 10 of 13 76% 10 of 13 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:28
Aleksei Oleinik 0 7 of 28 25% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilir Latifi 38 of 48 79% 32 of 40 6 of 8 0 of 0 18 of 27 5 of 6 15 of 15
Aleksei Oleinik 28 of 70 40% 9 of 46 7 of 9 12 of 15 27 of 66 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilir Latifi 11 of 14 78% 8 of 10 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 9
Aleksei Oleinik 4 of 12 33% 1 of 8 0 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ilir Latifi 17 of 21 80% 15 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 6
Aleksei Oleinik 17 of 30 56% 5 of 17 5 of 6 7 of 7 17 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ilir Latifi 10 of 13 76% 9 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 8 4 of 5 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 7 of 28 25% 3 of 21 2 of 2 2 of 5 6 of 25 1 of 3 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ilir Latifi

Cody picks Ilir Latifi to win, highlighting his power and the favorable matchup. He notes that Oleinik has a compromised chin and that Latifi's big hooks could knock him out. He expects Latifi to either knock out Oleinik early or grind out a decision. He mentions that Latifi has been training at All-Stars in Sweden and looks motivated.

Latifi by KO +195/+200; Latifi by decision +250
"I just think stylistically he gets this job done even if it's a knockout or a boring decision regardless I still just think he gets the job done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ilir Latifi

Paul picks Ilir Latifi to win, citing his takedown ability and top control. He notes that Oleinik is unlikely to submit Latifi due to his lack of a neck, and that Latifi's power could lead to a knockout. He expects a slow, grinding fight but believes Latifi's style is a bad matchup for Oleinik. He is not betting due to emotional attachment to both fighters.

"I'm picking the sledgehammer I'm not going to be betting this fight because you know my heart's too invested on both sides"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

The MMA Guru picks Aleksei Oleinik, despite acknowledging the difficulty of submitting Latifi due to his lack of a neck. He believes Oleinik has the cardio advantage and can outlast Latifi, who hasn't knocked anyone out since 2016. He thinks Oleinik will win a decision by outworking Latifi with volume and grappling. He calls the plus money on Oleinik 'crazy' and bets on him.

Oleinik by decision
"Oleinik by decision is my pick... I think Oleinik has the gas and always kind of surprises with those weird shovel shots."
Submission (scarf hold) R1 3:39 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksei Oleinik 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:44
Jared Vanderaa 0 15 of 40 37% 23 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksei Oleinik 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:44
Jared Vanderaa 0 15 of 40 37% 23 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksei Oleinik 8 of 22 36% 3 of 16 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 15 of 40 37% 13 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 30 1 of 1 7 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksei Oleinik 8 of 22 36% 3 of 16 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 15 of 40 37% 13 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 30 1 of 1 7 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Angelo picks Aleksei Oleinik despite his age (45). He notes that Oleinik is a submission threat anywhere on the ground, and that Latifi's low-volume wrestling style plays into Oleinik's strengths. He also mentions Latifi's recent illness and doubts about his conditioning.

"i like alexionic i liked him two weeks ago i like him now i think alexia olenek pulls off the upset here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Big Brady picks Aleksei Oleinik to win by first-round submission. He notes Vanderaa has terrible takedown defense (20%) and striking defense (43%), and is coming in on short notice. Oleinik has good takedown accuracy and can take Vanderaa down or pull guard, then submit him quickly.

first round submission
"give me alexia olynyk to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Cody picks Vanderaa, arguing that Oleinik is too old and undersized. He notes Oleinik's cardio fades quickly and that Vanderaa has a 50-pound weight advantage. Cody thinks Vanderaa's volume and durability will overwhelm Oleinik in the later rounds. He expects Vanderaa by TKO, possibly after surviving an early submission attempt.

Vanderaa by TKO
"i got jared vander i got jared vander after the first round and i would like to save andra by tko"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Levi acknowledges Oleinik's age (turning 45) but notes heavyweights can have resurgences. He does not see UFC-caliber skills in Vanderaa, who has lost to better guys. He thinks Oleinik could get an Ezekiel choke, but is hesitant because of the age factor. He picks Oleinik but advises caution.

"i just can't pick jaren vader in a ufc fight period"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

I lean Vanderaa because he can keep Oleinik on the outside with his striking and movement, especially in the bigger cage. He's not a big knockout puncher but can use volume and leg kicks. If he can avoid takedowns for 12 minutes, he can cruise to a decision. However, it's a volatile fight and he's on short notice.

"The pick here is going to be Vanderaa slight lean towards him... if he's able to go out there and give us a solid 12 minutes without getting taken down I could see him cruising to a decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Paul picks Oleinik at plus money, believing the old man has one more win. He notes Vanderaa's poor takedown defense, as seen against Romanov and Spivak. Paul thinks Oleinik can get takedowns and find his signature scarf hold or Ezekiel choke. He acknowledges Oleinik's cardio issues but thinks he can finish early. He has already bet Oleinik at +100.

Oleinik by submission +165
"i think the old man oh linux got another one in the tank cody i bet i'm at plus 100"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

The MMA Guru picks Aleksei Oleinik, expressing disdain for Jared Vanderaa's physique and performance. He expects Oleinik to get a first-round submission, possibly by arm triangle or rear-naked choke, citing Vanderaa's grappling issues and Oleinik's full camp.

first round submission prediction
"i'm gonna go with alexi olynyk here jared vandira is garbage"
LOSS vs Serghei Spivac
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 59 of 121 48% 98 of 162 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:31
Aleksei Oleinik 0 71 of 136 52% 112 of 181 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 25 of 59 42% 27 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:37
Aleksei Oleinik 0 23 of 53 43% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Serghei Spivac 0 10 of 22 45% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:51
Aleksei Oleinik 0 20 of 32 62% 37 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:54
3 Serghei Spivac 0 24 of 40 60% 55 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Aleksei Oleinik 0 28 of 51 54% 51 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 59 of 121 48% 33 of 92 13 of 16 13 of 13 52 of 110 4 of 6 3 of 5
Aleksei Oleinik 71 of 136 52% 67 of 132 3 of 3 1 of 1 55 of 112 4 of 8 12 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 25 of 59 42% 11 of 45 8 of 8 6 of 6 23 of 55 1 of 3 1 of 1
Aleksei Oleinik 23 of 53 43% 21 of 51 2 of 2 0 of 0 22 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Serghei Spivac 10 of 22 45% 5 of 15 2 of 4 3 of 3 9 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 3
Aleksei Oleinik 20 of 32 62% 19 of 31 0 of 0 1 of 1 14 of 25 0 of 0 6 of 7
3 Serghei Spivac 24 of 40 60% 17 of 32 3 of 4 4 of 4 20 of 36 3 of 3 1 of 1
Aleksei Oleinik 28 of 51 54% 27 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 36 3 of 6 6 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Angelo picks Serghei Spivac, citing his wrestling, ground and pound, and Oleinik's declining chin. He thinks Spivac will control the fight on top and avoid Oleinik's submissions. He bet the over on rounds (1.5) at +135, expecting the fight to last into the second round. He likes the over on strikes for both.

over 1.5 rounds (+135); monkey knife fight: more more
"i have spivak in my lineup i'm very confident in this."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady picks Spivac due to youth and Oleinik's age (43) and poor cardio. He thinks Spivac should keep the fight standing to avoid Oleinik's submissions and finish him in the third round via TKO. He is not betting due to the high price.

win by TKO in round 3
"I'm gonna take sergey spivak to win I'm gonna say third round tko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Cody picks Spivac, emphasizing Oleinik's age (43) and decline, while noting Spivac's youth (27) and improved cardio and grappling. He predicts Spivac will win by TKO late in the second round, as Oleinik will struggle with Spivac's jab and clinch, and his cardio will fade.

Spivac by TKO late in the second round; price minus 140
"not only do i take speed back but speed probably gets a tko late in the second price is like minus 140 on that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Daniel Levi sees this as a passing of the torch fight. He notes the 18-year age gap and believes Spivac has shown he can make adjustments and handle adversity, as seen in his wins over Tai Tuivasa and Carlos Felipe. He thinks Spivac can grapple with Oleinik and even beat him at his own game, and that Oleinik's skills are declining. He expects Spivac to win, possibly by ground and pound or knockout.

"i got spit back for the win here um and you know i hope him and uh alexi can hug and you know raise his hand in the middle of the cage"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Jacob picks Serghei Spivac, but worries about Spivac's willingness to grapple with Oleinik. He hopes Spivac keeps it standing and uses his striking to exploit Oleinik's chin. He has Spivac in his lineup at $9,200. He also likes the over on strikes.

"i went with sergey just because we've seen olynyk's chin lately."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

The host picks Serghei Spivac by decision, believing he can grind out Oleinik with cage clinching and striking. He notes Spivac's slight striking advantage and that Oleinik is dangerous on the ground but Spivac will play it safe. He expects a slow-paced fight and likes the over 1.5 rounds. He mentions Spivac's decision prop at +677 as an attractive line. He is not confident in paying -230 but thinks Spivac wins.

Spivac by decision at +677; over 1.5 rounds at +135; Spivac round 3 at +850 mentioned
"i'm going to go spivak i'm going to go with i think speedvac round three could be live here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Paul picks Spivac but is hesitant due to his fandom for Oleinik. He notes Oleinik's age and recent poor performances, but acknowledges Spivac's lack of elite speed and power, making this a more favorable matchup for Oleinik than recent fights. Paul passes on betting.

"i'm gonna pick spivak if i had to but i can't i can't touch money i'll be cheering uh against my bed if i bet on sergey spivak so it's a straight up pass for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Serghei Spivac

The MMA Guru picks Serghei Spivac to win by second-round TKO via ground and pound. He expects Oleinik to try to earn respect on the feet but Spivac will stick a jab in his face. Oleinik will shoot takedowns, but Spivac will stuff them and land elbows. In round two, Oleinik will shoot a bad takedown, Spivac will take mount and land ground and pound for the TKO.

second round TKO, ground and pound
"i'm gonna go with sergey spivak round two ground and pound tko"
LOSS vs Chris Daukaus
TKO (punches) R1 1:55 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Daukaus 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Aleksei Oleinik 0 34 of 56 60% 34 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Daukaus 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Aleksei Oleinik 0 34 of 56 60% 34 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Daukaus 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 34 of 56 60% 32 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0 28 of 49 2 of 3 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Daukaus 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 34 of 56 60% 32 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0 28 of 49 2 of 3 4 of 4
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Daniel Levi is impressed with Chris Daukaus's hand speed and accuracy, noting his quick knockouts of Parker Porter and Nascimento. He believes Daukaus only needs 20-30 seconds of pocket exchanges to knock out Oleinik, who is a liability standing. Levi acknowledges Oleinik's 45 submission wins but thinks Daukaus has the grappling skills to avoid submissions and keep the fight standing. He expects a first-round knockout and sees Daukaus as a rising heavyweight prospect.

first round knockout
"i'm going with chris dyches by first round starching of alexia olynyk getting into that top ten"
LOSS vs Derrick Lewis
TKO (punches) R2 0:21 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · Aug 08, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derrick Lewis 1 35 of 42 83% 35 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:39
Aleksei Oleinik 0 2 of 6 33% 3 of 7 1 of 1 100% 2 1 2:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derrick Lewis 0 13 of 19 68% 13 of 19 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:27
Aleksei Oleinik 0 2 of 4 50% 3 of 5 1 of 1 100% 2 1 2:21
2 Derrick Lewis 1 22 of 23 95% 22 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Aleksei Oleinik 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derrick Lewis 35 of 42 83% 34 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 30 of 35
Aleksei Oleinik 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derrick Lewis 13 of 19 68% 13 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 14
Aleksei Oleinik 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Derrick Lewis 22 of 23 95% 21 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 20 of 21
Aleksei Oleinik 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derrick Lewis vs. Alexey Oleynik

Round 1
The headliner of the evening sees a fascinating style matchup between a knockout artist in Lewis (23-7, 1 NC; 14-5 UFC) against the submission wizardry of Oleynik (59-13-1, 8-4 UFC). This five-round heavyweight contest may very well end one of two ways, with Lewis one knockout away from the all-time UFC heavyweight record, while Oleynik could notch his 47th by tapout should he elicit a submission. Referee Herb Dean will be right there to make sure everything is copacetic as it all plays out, and the two large men – Lewis weighs 38 pounds more than his opponent – touch gloves to introduce themselves. Lewis opens with a head kick, and a hard one-two to hurt Oleynik and push him to the fence. Oleynik quickly sets up an Ezekiel choke, but he abandons it to try to gain a better position with his back to the fence. Lewis throws him down to the ground like Tim Boetsch’s hip toss, and he starts slamming the Russian in the head with punches. Oleynik sits up and looks for a leg, so Lewis spins out from on top to pop over to half guard. Oleynik ties him up from his back as he tries to sit up, but Lewis is content to press his full body weight down on his opponent. Oleynik gets back to his knees and ties up Lewis’ leg to land his own single and wind up on top. He gets to side guard with ease, and secures a scarf hold headlock and wrenches on Lewis’ neck. Lewis powers out of the bad spot and starts raining down punches, but Oleynik ties him back up and clings to him like Saran wrap. Oleynik reverses the position and gets back to side control, where he aims for a scarf hold headlock on the opposite side. He lets go to readjust, and Lewis wriggles and turns his head while Oleynik puts everything he has into the choke. Lewis appears unconcerned and rides it out as veins bulge on Oleynik’s forehead while he applies the torque. The Russian recommits to the choke, and Lewis is trapped but not entirely in danger. Oleynik bails on the choke and elects to take side control and set up a keylock. Time expires before he can land it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oleynik
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oleynik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oleynik

Round 2
Oleynik reaches with a front kick, and Lewis leaps at him with a flying knee.
A bomb of a right hand takes the legs out from the Russian, and as “The Black Beast” rains down punch after punch from on top, Oleynik turns to his side. Unleashing a barrage of nasty punches. Lewis smells blood and knows the finish is right around the corner. Lewis keeps clubbing Oleynik in the face until Dean has seen enough and stops the fight.
Lewis is now the all-time leader in heavyweight knockouts, scoring his 11th inside the Octagon. Lewis survived adversity and got the Russian out of there to end the night with style points. See you next week, for a much higher stakes heavyweight contest at UFC 252.

The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Alexey Oleynik R2 0:21 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Big Brady picks Oleinik as an underdog, believing he can get the fight to the ground and secure a submission. He notes that Lewis has poor takedown defense and often rests on the ground, which could be dangerous against a submission specialist like Oleinik. However, he acknowledges Lewis's explosive power and ability to pop up from bottom, making this a tough call. He leans Oleinik by submission in the first round.

Oleinik by submission at plus 200 or plus 250; fight does not go to decision (minus 800); Lewis by KO at minus 150
"i'm gonna take alexia linux to win this fight um i do think he gets louis on the ground and louis is going to try to rest and and by the time you know lewis tries to get his rest …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Daniel Levi picks Derrick Lewis to win by knockout. He notes that Lewis has a tendency to lose the first two rounds but then come back with his signature 'black beast blitz' and knock out his opponent. He also mentions that Oleinik has a 7-10 minute window to get a submission, but if he doesn't, Lewis will likely finish him. Levi acknowledges that Oleinik is dangerous on the ground but believes Lewis's power is a different level.

"i'm gonna go with lewis to get the knockout win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Lewis has freakish power and can knock anyone out, but Oleinik is a dangerous submission artist who can get the fight to the ground. Lewis has shown the ability to get back to his feet, but Oleinik's jiu-jitsu is elite. The line at -265 is too wide; Oleinik offers value. Lewis likely wins by first-round KO, but it's not a bet.

Oleinik by submission, Oleinik moneyline +225
"I'm gonna go with Lewis to win by first round ko but definitely not a bet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

The MMA Guru picks Aleksei Oleinik to win by first-round submission via rear naked choke. He criticizes the oddsmakers for making Lewis such a big favorite, citing Lewis's close fights against Ivanov and Latifi. He believes Oleinik's grappling will be too much for Lewis, who loads up on big shots and leaves himself open for takedowns. He notes that Oleinik has a reach advantage and will transition from position to position, eventually taking Lewis's back.

first round submission, rear naked choke
"i think olynyk is going to go out there he's going to engage in the grappling situations and hold lewis up against the cage eventually get him down in a bit of a tangle"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksei Oleinik 0 94 of 183 51% 149 of 241 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:53
Fabrício Werdum 0 53 of 83 63% 70 of 101 3 of 7 42% 1 1 3:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksei Oleinik 0 54 of 94 57% 71 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
Fabrício Werdum 0 25 of 37 67% 28 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
2 Aleksei Oleinik 0 26 of 63 41% 40 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
Fabrício Werdum 0 24 of 38 63% 29 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:19
3 Aleksei Oleinik 0 14 of 26 53% 38 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:26
Fabrício Werdum 0 4 of 8 50% 13 of 18 2 of 3 66% 1 1 2:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksei Oleinik 94 of 183 51% 79 of 167 10 of 10 5 of 6 72 of 149 22 of 33 0 of 1
Fabrício Werdum 53 of 83 63% 27 of 52 16 of 21 10 of 10 34 of 60 16 of 20 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksei Oleinik 54 of 94 57% 47 of 86 5 of 5 2 of 3 39 of 76 15 of 18 0 of 0
Fabrício Werdum 25 of 37 67% 14 of 24 7 of 9 4 of 4 17 of 26 8 of 11 0 of 0
2 Aleksei Oleinik 26 of 63 41% 21 of 58 3 of 3 2 of 2 22 of 53 4 of 10 0 of 0
Fabrício Werdum 24 of 38 63% 12 of 23 7 of 10 5 of 5 15 of 29 6 of 6 3 of 3
3 Aleksei Oleinik 14 of 26 53% 11 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 20 3 of 5 0 of 1
Fabrício Werdum 4 of 8 50% 1 of 5 2 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum

Big Brady picks Fabricio Werdum, citing a favorable stylistic matchup due to Werdum's superior submission game and Oleinik's poor ground game. He expects Werdum to take Oleinik down early and finish with ground and pound or submission, likely in the first round. He notes the line at minus 320 is steep but believes it's a good matchup.

Werdum by first round TKO/submission; fight ends inside first round
"I like Verdoom here. Um, due to the fact that I think it's a good, uh, stylistic match up for him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum

Daniel Levi picks Fabricio Werdum, stating he is the better striker and has the ground game to handle Oleinik's submissions. He notes Oleinik is reckless and makes mistakes, and that Werdum's improved striking and Thai clinch will be key. Levi expects Werdum to capitalize on Oleinik's errors and win inside the distance.

Werdum inside the distance
"I'm actually gonna go with Fabricio Vacaville or doom here to win this fight inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Fabrício Werdum

Matt picks Werdum but thinks the -300 line is too wide due to Werdum's long layoff and age. He believes Werdum has the advantage on the feet and can finish Oleinik in the second round, but he is hesitant to bet at the current price. He would consider a bet if the line drops to -250.

Werdum by second-round TKO, fight doesn't go to decision (-250)
"I'm gonna pick over doom to win here but that line is a little bit too wide for me"
Submission (armbar) R2 4:38 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksei Oleinik 0 7 of 22 31% 25 of 46 3 of 3 100% 3 0 7:25
Maurice Greene 0 13 of 29 44% 38 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksei Oleinik 0 1 of 7 14% 5 of 11 2 of 2 100% 1 0 4:13
Maurice Greene 0 3 of 6 50% 26 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Aleksei Oleinik 0 6 of 15 40% 20 of 35 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:12
Maurice Greene 0 10 of 23 43% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksei Oleinik 7 of 22 31% 4 of 19 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 6
Maurice Greene 13 of 29 44% 10 of 25 1 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 26 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksei Oleinik 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1
Maurice Greene 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Aleksei Oleinik 6 of 15 40% 3 of 12 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 5
Maurice Greene 10 of 23 43% 9 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 20 3 of 3 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Daniel picks Aleksei Oleinik via rear-naked choke finish, but admits he's been going back and forth on this fight. He notes that Oleinik has 40+ submissions and is a total badass, while Greene has power and length but questionable grappling. He says someone is most likely getting finished.

finish, rear-naked choke
"I'm gonna roll the dice flip a coin and I'm gonna land on Alexei Olynyk via rear-naked choke finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 15, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Maurice Greene

The host picks Maurice Greene to win by TKO, likely in the second round, but expresses low confidence, stating he doesn't trust Greene. He notes Greene's speed and footwork as advantages, but worries about Oleinik's jiu-jitsu and the possibility of both fighters gassing. He sees the fight as risky and is not planning to bet on it.

Fight doesn't go to decision at -675 considered too steep; over/under 1.5 rounds at -165 sketchy; Greene by TKO in second round predicted.
"I like green here to get the TK over Olynyk probably in the second round but it's a very risky fight I don't trust green"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2020 (12 days before fight)
Maurice Greene

The host is surprised this fight is on the main card but picks Maurice Greene. He notes Greene's size and difficulty to take down, and Oleinik's age (42) and history of KO losses. He predicts Greene will land a good combo on Oleinik's chin and finish him in the first round.

first round finish
"I could see Maurice green landing a good combo on his chin and getting him out of there in the first round"
LOSS vs Walt Harris
KO (knee and punches) R1 0:12 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Jul 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Walt Harris 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksei Oleinik 1 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Walt Harris 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksei Oleinik 1 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Walt Harris 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Walt Harris 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2
Expert Picks (1)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Daniel Levi is impressed with Chris Daukaus's hand speed and accuracy, noting his quick knockouts of Parker Porter and Nascimento. He believes Daukaus only needs 20-30 seconds of pocket exchanges to knock out Oleinik, who is a liability standing. Levi acknowledges Oleinik's 45 submission wins but thinks Daukaus has the grappling skills to avoid submissions and keep the fight standing. He expects a first-round knockout and sees Daukaus as a rising heavyweight prospect.

first round knockout
"i'm going with chris dyches by first round starching of alexia olynyk getting into that top ten"