Career Averages - Julian Erosa
Career Averages - Nate Landwehr
Julian Erosa
Nate Landwehr
Julian Erosa - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Erosa | 0 | 17 of 46 | 36% | 18 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Lerryan Douglas | 2 | 29 of 48 | 60% | 30 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julian Erosa | 0 | 17 of 46 | 36% | 18 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Lerryan Douglas | 2 | 29 of 48 | 60% | 30 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Erosa | 17 of 46 | 36% | 13 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 16 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lerryan Douglas | 29 of 48 | 60% | 18 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 39 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julian Erosa | 17 of 46 | 36% | 13 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 16 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lerryan Douglas | 29 of 48 | 60% | 18 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 39 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo picks Lando Vannata (Lerryan Douglas) as the more skilled fighter, cleaner and faster, and less hittable than Julian Erosa. He thinks Erosa's pressure could be a factor but believes Vannata's technique will prevail. He notes the odds are appropriate.
Big Brady picks Lerryan Douglas to win by second-round knockout. He praises Douglas's power, calling him one of the hardest hitters in the featherweight division. He criticizes Julian Erosa's chin, noting he has been knocked out seven times and has poor striking defense. He expects a violent fight and believes Douglas will connect and knock Erosa out brutally.
Cody favors Douglas to land a knockout due to Erosa's questionable chin and low hands. He acknowledges Erosa's path to victory via submission but thinks Douglas's power will prevail.
Connor picks Douglas, expecting a flattening. He notes that Erosa is losing a step and looks slow and cumbersome, as seen in the Elkins and Costa fights. Douglas is a fast power puncher who sells out, and if he catches Erosa early, he can finish him. However, he acknowledges that if Erosa survives the first round, he tends to win.
Daniel expects Douglas to knock out Erosa, citing Erosa's weak chin and Douglas's left hook power. He warns that if Douglas doesn't finish early, Erosa could make it competitive, but ultimately picks Douglas by KO.
The host sees value on Erosa as an underdog, believing the odds are too wide. Erosa is tough, has great cardio, and applies relentless pressure, which could trouble debutant Douglas. However, Erosa's recent poor fight IQ (losing to a one-legged opponent) gives pause. The host prefers the fight spread (+3.5) on Erosa rather than the moneyline, as he expects a competitive fight.
The host thinks Douglas will find a knockout due to his power and Erosa's defensive flaws, but he is cautious because Erosa's chin held up in his last fight. He expects Douglas to expose Erosa's awkward striking exits but acknowledges the risk if Erosa's durability holds. He suggests the knockout prop might be the play.
Paul is torn, calling it dog or pass. He considers Erosa's value but doesn't commit, suggesting live betting Erosa after the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Lerryan Douglas, calling him a 'clobberer' who throws heat-seeking punches. He believes Douglas's power and fast starts will be too much for Julian Erosa, whose chin is questionable. He notes Douglas's training at Bloodline MMA with Cub Swanson and Danny Silva as a positive. He predicts a KO in the first round.
Zane picks Erosa just for fun, calling it a coin flip. He notes that Douglas is awful moving backward and collapses inward, while Erosa is capable of pushing forward and has a vicious clinch game. He points out that Erosa has survived early trouble before and that Douglas's losses come from guys who gave him what he asked for and he couldn't handle it.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Erosa | 0 | 69 of 173 | 39% | 85 of 202 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
| Melquizael Costa | 0 | 102 of 204 | 50% | 128 of 236 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julian Erosa | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 10 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Melquizael Costa | 0 | 32 of 75 | 42% | 32 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Julian Erosa | 0 | 23 of 54 | 42% | 30 of 62 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Melquizael Costa | 0 | 33 of 55 | 60% | 47 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Julian Erosa | 0 | 36 of 93 | 38% | 45 of 113 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Melquizael Costa | 0 | 37 of 74 | 50% | 49 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Erosa | 69 of 173 | 39% | 42 of 140 | 18 of 24 | 9 of 9 | 55 of 150 | 13 of 21 | 1 of 2 |
| Melquizael Costa | 102 of 204 | 50% | 67 of 160 | 16 of 22 | 19 of 22 | 99 of 196 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julian Erosa | 10 of 26 | 38% | 5 of 19 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Melquizael Costa | 32 of 75 | 42% | 14 of 52 | 7 of 10 | 11 of 13 | 32 of 73 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Julian Erosa | 23 of 54 | 42% | 11 of 40 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 43 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Melquizael Costa | 33 of 55 | 60% | 25 of 46 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 31 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Julian Erosa | 36 of 93 | 38% | 26 of 81 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 83 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Melquizael Costa | 37 of 74 | 50% | 28 of 62 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 36 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-192), Erosa (+160)
Round 1
Although much can be said about the state of UFC matchmaking as of late, the promotion knew exactly what it was doing when it matched Erosa (31-11, 9-7 UFC) against Costa (23-7, 4-2 UFC). It chose violence. The featherweights will go for broke under the watchful eye of referee Herb Dean, and they get right to it after embracing the formality of bumping fists. Costa prods with the ball of his foot, looking for low kicks as Erosa walks him down. Costa keeps working on the front leg as Erosa gives him one back, and Erosa grabs his foe’s foot and lifts it up. Costa bounces off the fence to get his limb back, and he whiffs on two hooks. Costa scores a body kick as he stays on the outside, and after pitching a leg kick, he trips on the edge of the cage but does not fall over. Erosa lets him get up and continues to trade kicks with him, and Costa mixes things up with a surprise Superman punch. Costa follows it with a booming head kick that rocks “Juicy J,” who backs off to the fence but is still dangerous as a coiled snake. Costa walks forward to throw bombs, and Erosa snipes him with a mean right hand that makes him think twice. Erosa gets his legs back beneath him and blocks a head kick, walking Costa down but taking three punches on the chin to do so. Erosa fakes a spin and lunges forward with an elbow, slipping and falling over. Costa lets him up so he can leap at him with a knee, and he chains punches into a body kick as Erosa is now the one retreating. Costa parries a few punches and lets fly a left hand, and his second effort reaches his man. Costa wraps a head kick around the guard and Erosa shrugs it off, nailing Costa with a right hand over the top. Erosa jumps at his foe to attack, and Costa times a spinning back kick that pounds into the cup. Erosa grumbles and adjusts his groin supporter before waving Dean off. Costa lets his foe’s fists and feet whiz past him so he can deliver a hard body kick, and Erosa fakes his way in to take the fight down. Erosa whips Costa all the way around to take him down, and he slashes down with an elbow as soon as he gets to side control. Costa is warned for having his toes in the cage, and Erosa drops down a few punches and leans back to watch an upkick buzz past him at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 2
Costa’s left foot is leaking blood as the second round begins, but he shrugs it off and touches gloves with his opponent. Erosa gets right into attack mode, firing off a head kick and a right hand but getting countered with a left and a body kick. Costa belts “Juicy J” with a left hand, and Erosa bites down on his mouthpiece to unload a power punch. Costa shakes Erosa up with a one-two, and Erosa again has to recover before coming forward. The punches of Costa make Erosa pursue a takedown, and Costa defends with a guillotine choke and stands back up to re-secure it. Erosa holds on and leverages Costa back down, but he in submission danger again. Costa lets go before burning his arms out, and he stands up. Erosa leans on from behind, his left eye swelling up fast. Costa defends a takedown effort and keeps his balance, stomping Erosa’s foot and receiving an elbow in the face for his effort. As Erosa is leaning heavily on his man, Costa sweeps his leg and puts him down for a second. Erosa climbs back up and walks through a one-two. Costa reaches the Washington native at the end of a left hand, and Erosa fires back with a vengeance. They reach one another with long punches, and instead of clinching, Erosa pushes off and shrugs at him. Costa lines up a solid crescent kick that hits the target, and Erosa goes for broke with punches and kicks to any target he can find. Erosa pokes Costa in the eye, and Costa tells them he is fine and keeps going. Erosa thanks him by drilling a spinning back kick in his ribs, and Costa laughs it off and throws hammers. Erosa staggers Costa with a pair of hooks, and a grinning Costa swings back with bad intentions and rocks Erosa. Erosa spins through to hit Costa in the face with his foot, and he knocks Costa across the cage with a left hand right before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erosa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 3
While Erosa does touch gloves, he is a man on a mission. Walking Costa down immediately, he swings his way into a clinch. Erosa leans on the Brazilian to slow him down, getting off the occasional knee until Costa trips him and sets him down. Erosa responds by nailing Costa with an upkick and working his way to his feet, where he backs “Melk” off and dislodges his mouthpiece with a right hand. He follows with another right hand to lead into a clinch, and Costa backs off with a left hook. The two clash heads after Erosa lands an uppercut, and “Juicy J” pours it on while swinging wildly. Costa’s head movement keeps him relatively safe, and he blasts Erosa in the jaw with four punches in a combination. Erosa’s movement leads him to banging into the fence, but he is quick to shake it off and uppercut Costa in the chops. Erosa continues staying in Costa’s face, with punches that lead to an elbow as Costa is backing off but smiling. Erosa lines up punches in bunches, and his elbows are not accurate. They proceed to brawl it out with little regard to defense or cardio, and even though Costa is fatigued, he is still loading up with everything he has. Thankfully for those watching this carnage, Erosa is doing just the same, as they proceed to hammer one another in the jaw again and again. Costa trips Erosa up to get a second to breathe, and he backs off to avoid an upkick and let Erosa stand. Erosa marches ever forward, swinging recklessly while Costa is giving it back when he can. Costa takes several punches square on the jaw and offers up a knee, and Erosa spins with a back fist. A second and third back fist from Erosa do manage to rail into the Brazilian, who is as tough as nails and never falters. The action-packed “Fight of the Night” candidate goes the distance, and both exhausted men raise their arms. The second round may be where the victor emerges.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erosa (29-28 Erosa)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa (29-28 Costa)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa (29-28 Costa)
The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Julian Erosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Melquizael Costa with high confidence, stating that Costa should be better everywhere. He notes Costa's creative striking, solid grappling, and incredible scrambles. His only concern is Costa's activity level, as this will be his fifth fight in 12 months, which could lead to nagging injuries or fatigue. However, Angelo is not overly concerned and expects Costa to win.
Big Brady picks Julian Erosa as a dog, acknowledging Costa could knock him out early. He notes Costa's quick turnaround and tendency to slow down, while Erosa has great cardio and a nasty choke game. He predicts Erosa wins by second-round submission if it gets extended.
The host notes Costa's aggressiveness and unorthodox striking can catch Erosa off guard, especially since six of Erosa's seven losses have come by knockout. He feels Costa can take advantage of Erosa's mistakes and get a finish. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds.
The Guru picks Melquizael Costa, calling him a fellow 'fraud checker' who can handle Julian Erosa's gritty style. He notes Costa's grappling looked improved against Christian Rodriguez and his kicks are very good. He worries about Erosa's upset potential but believes Costa is better and more active. He predicts a TKO or decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 18 of 45 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Julian Erosa | 0 | 54 of 73 | 73% | 69 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 18 of 45 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Julian Erosa | 0 | 54 of 73 | 73% | 69 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 13 of 31 | 41% | 11 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Julian Erosa | 54 of 73 | 73% | 52 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 39 | 11 of 12 | 21 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 13 of 31 | 41% | 11 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Julian Erosa | 54 of 73 | 73% | 52 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 39 | 11 of 12 | 21 of 22 |
Daniel Levi states that Julian Erosa did exactly what he was supposed to do as a big favorite, handling the older veteran Darren Elkins. He approves of the performance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Erosa | 0 | 35 of 88 | 39% | 39 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 33 of 75 | 44% | 33 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julian Erosa | 0 | 35 of 88 | 39% | 39 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 33 of 75 | 44% | 33 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Erosa | 35 of 88 | 39% | 27 of 73 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 33 of 84 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 33 of 75 | 44% | 26 of 67 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 31 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julian Erosa | 35 of 88 | 39% | 27 of 73 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 33 of 84 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 33 of 75 | 44% | 26 of 67 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 31 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-205), Erosa (+170)
Round 1
Always willing to either add to his highlight reel or be a part of someone else’s, Erosa (29-11, 7-7 UFC) and his .500 record come to a head with Roufusport’s Rodriguez (11-1, 4-1 UFC). While “CeeRod” holds four wins on the scorecards, three of those have come in his last three outings. On the other hand, the last three walks to the cage for Erosa have ended in the first round. Whether it takes three minute or three rounds to get to a result, referee Nick Berens will be here for it from start to finish. The featherweights bump fists, and Erosa uses a front kick to keep Rodriguez away. Rodriguez passes right past it and puts his hands on Erosa’s face. Erosa is reddened up in a hurry from the quick punches from Rodriguez, and he answers with a pair of looping uppercuts. Erosa flicks out his jab, and Rodriguez dips down and smashes him in the face with a head kick. As they trade, Rodriguez’ mouthpiece goes flying, and Erosa sees it and decides it is time to brawl. They slug it out fast and furiously until Berens finds a moment to replace the gumshield, and they get right back to it. Erosa goads Rodriguez on, and he clips “CeeRod” with a right hand in the midst of a speedy combination. They both connect with powerful blows, and Erosa gets off a strong front kick. Rodriguez kicks his man upside the head, and Erosa tells him to bring it on. Rodriguez does just that. Erosa manages to get Rodriguez to take a step back with his own counters, and his front kick to the chest and face are able to keep the hard-charging Rodriguez relatively at bay. Rodriguez settles down and tosses out a low kick, and Erosa wags his finger at him and rings his bell an elbow. Erosa walks his man down and pounds him in the face with his fists, and Rodriguez responds with a flurry ending with a right hand that staggers Erosa back. Erosa gathers his thoughts and marches forward, a cut opened on the bridge of his nose, and he lets go with a head kick that is blocked. Another elbow from Erosa comes up short, and he catches a kick and bowls and trips Rodriguez to the mat. Erosa scrambles to take Rodriguez’ back and set up a body triangle, and he is quick to consider an armbar instead of going after the neck like usual. Rodriguez defends the possible submission and turns to his knees, and he manages to flip Erosa over. Erosa’s upkicks do not keep Rodriguez off of him, as Rodriguez leaps at him and punches him hard.
Erosa ignores them and grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and it is suddenly and surprisingly tight. Erosa tightens his legs around the waist of his foe and turns to the side, and falls to his back to complete the submission. Rodriguez tries to tough it out, but he is forced to surrender with seconds left on the clock.
Erosa sits up and shoves Rodriguez off of him when Berens intervenes, springing yet another upset and adding one more impressive stoppage to his ledger. The victorious "Juicy J" becomes the first fighter to finish Rodriguez as a professional.
The Official Result
Julian Erosa def. Christian Rodriguez R1 4:49 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Christian Rodriguez but with caution, noting that Rodriguez has been gifted decisions and has never faced a veteran as experienced as Julian Erosa. He acknowledges Rodriguez's slick striking and composure but points out his lack of finishing ability and the fact that Erosa is much larger and more experienced. Angelo warns that the odds seem wide for a fighter who lost to the last tough veteran he faced.
Cody picks Rodriguez, highlighting his youth, cardio, and striking advantage. He notes Erosa's history of getting knocked out and believes Rodriguez will overwhelm him with volume and power. He expects a finish, possibly in the first or second round.
Daniel Vreeland picks Christian Rodriguez to win, predicting his first UFC knockout. He notes that Rodriguez has handed prospects their first losses and that Erosa's chin is a massive liability. He advises Rodriguez to headhunt rather than engage in a technical battle. He believes Rodriguez will pass the Erosa test.
Christian Rodriguez is the slicker striker and one of the best prospects on the roster. Despite a height and reach disadvantage, he will crash the pocket, land combinations, and eventually drop Erosa, leading to a knockout or a club-and-sub opportunity.
Paul picks Rodriguez, citing his superior cardio and durability. He notes Erosa's knockout losses and believes Rodriguez's pressure will be too much. He acknowledges Erosa's length but thinks Rodriguez's pace will win the fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Erosa | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 12 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Ricardo Ramos | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julian Erosa | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 12 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Ricardo Ramos | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Erosa | 7 of 17 | 41% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Ricardo Ramos | 4 of 11 | 36% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julian Erosa | 7 of 17 | 41% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Ricardo Ramos | 4 of 11 | 36% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans towards Julian Erosa as an underdog, citing his higher level of competition and ability to weather a storm and grind out a decision. He notes that Ramos is dangerous but also finishable, while Erosa is tough and can dog fights out. He will monitor the line movement for better value.
Big Brady picks Ricardo Ramos, citing Julian Erosa's poor durability (knocked out seven times at featherweight) and low striking defense (47%). He notes Erosa is hittable and his chin is not getting better after back-to-back knockout losses. He expects Ramos to land something and knock Erosa out in the first round.
Cody picks Erosa as an underdog, citing his volume and unorthodox style. He acknowledges Erosa's weak chin but believes Ramos is not a big power puncher and may struggle with Erosa's pressure. Cody thinks Erosa can win by decision or late finish if he avoids getting knocked out.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ricardo Ramos by first-round knockout, emphasizing that Erosa has a terrible chin and has been dropped multiple times. He believes Ramos should head-hunt and sell out for the finish, as Erosa is dangerous if the fight extends. He notes if it goes past the first round, all bets are off.
Ramos has the grappling edge and should be able to muzzle Erosa's unorthodox striking. Erosa is on a two-fight KO loss streak and may be on the chopping block. Ramos should dictate the pace and win on the scorecards, possibly even latching onto a submission. The fight going to decision is also appealing at plus money.
Paul picks Erosa by KO, noting Ramos's cardio issues and tendency to struggle when missing weight. He believes Erosa's volume and durability will overwhelm Ramos. Paul also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Ricardo Ramos over Julian Erosa, citing Ramos's finishing potential and Erosa's recent chin issues. He mentions Erosa's KO losses to Fernando Padilla and Alex Caceres, and a war with Steven Peterson that makes him doubt Erosa. He predicts a first-round KO for Ramos.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Padilla | 0 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julian Erosa | 1 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 20 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Padilla | 0 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julian Erosa | 1 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 20 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Padilla | 15 of 24 | 62% | 9 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julian Erosa | 20 of 29 | 68% | 17 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Padilla | 15 of 24 | 62% | 9 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julian Erosa | 20 of 29 | 68% | 17 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Cody picks Padilla as an underdog, citing Erosa's durability issues and tendency to get knocked out. He notes that Padilla has decent power and could catch Erosa early. However, he is flip-floppy and admits he wants to pick Erosa due to experience, but the favorite tag on a chinny fighter makes him lean towards the underdog.
Connor thinks Erosa's experience and durability will prevail. He notes Padilla's poor defense and tendency to gas, and that Erosa gets stronger as fights go on. He acknowledges Erosa's history of getting KO'd but believes Padilla's lack of power and technical striking make it less likely. He sees Erosa as the more versatile fighter in messy exchanges.
Paul picks Erosa but very cautiously, acknowledging his chin issues and recent knockout losses. He notes that Erosa is talented and exciting but has been knocked out by light punchers. He is not confident enough to bet on Erosa, but for the pick he goes with Erosa, hoping he doesn't get cracked again.
Zane agrees, citing Padilla's limited game and Erosa's ability to win scrambles and late rounds. He notes Padilla's submissions off his back but thinks Erosa's aggression and cardio will be decisive. He sees Erosa as the rightful slight favorite.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Caceres | 1 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Julian Erosa | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Caceres | 1 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Julian Erosa | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Caceres | 16 of 30 | 53% | 9 of 19 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 |
| Julian Erosa | 10 of 22 | 45% | 2 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 7 | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Caceres | 16 of 30 | 53% | 9 of 19 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 |
| Julian Erosa | 10 of 22 | 45% | 2 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 7 | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Julian Erosa, believing he can win the stand-up exchanges and stay alive on the ground. He notes Erosa has more power, volume, and good enough takedowns to keep Caceres guessing. He acknowledges Caceres' experience could sneak out a win but thinks Erosa is dangerous and well-rounded enough.
Big Brady picks Julian Erosa, noting that Erosa is typically an underdog but is favored here. He likes Erosa's volume, pressure, power, and submission game. He thinks Caceres lacks power and has been submitted many times. He expects Erosa to break Caceres and get a second-round submission.
Cody picks Erosa, noting his inconsistency but coming off a good performance against Hakeem Dawodu. He thinks Erosa has all the intangibles: volume, movement, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Caceres is a gatekeeper who beats lower-level guys but loses to legit fighters. He expects Erosa to outwork Caceres and win by decision.
The host bet the over 2.5 rounds, not a moneyline pick. He thinks both guys are durable and neither has big knockout power, so it should go to decision. He leans Erosa to win but doesn't like the -170 moneyline. No clear winner pick.
Paul picks Erosa, agreeing with Cody. He notes his biggest concern with Erosa is his chin against power punchers, but Caceres is not a one-hitter quitter. He expects Erosa to clear 65.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks, as he throws high volume and the fight likely goes to decision.
The MMA Guru picks Julian Erosa over Alex Caceres, believing Erosa's pace, pressure, and wrestling will be too much. He notes Caceres is vegan and Erosa goes to the body a lot, which could be a factor. He thinks Caceres won't finish Erosa, and Erosa's grappling is too good to get submitted. He predicts a third-round finish or decision win for Erosa, citing his recent wins over Hakeem Dawodu and Nate Landwehr.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Erosa | 0 | 74 of 147 | 50% | 90 of 163 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:12 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 0 | 92 of 188 | 48% | 152 of 257 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julian Erosa | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 36 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 0 | 48 of 87 | 55% | 60 of 99 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 | |
| 2 | Julian Erosa | 0 | 21 of 39 | 53% | 28 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 47 of 80 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:30 | |
| 3 | Julian Erosa | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 26 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:08 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 0 | 22 of 50 | 44% | 45 of 78 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Erosa | 74 of 147 | 50% | 43 of 109 | 18 of 21 | 13 of 17 | 57 of 126 | 16 of 20 | 1 of 1 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 92 of 188 | 48% | 60 of 149 | 28 of 32 | 4 of 7 | 59 of 149 | 24 of 30 | 9 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julian Erosa | 31 of 57 | 54% | 14 of 36 | 10 of 12 | 7 of 9 | 23 of 48 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 48 of 87 | 55% | 32 of 67 | 15 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 34 of 72 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Julian Erosa | 21 of 39 | 53% | 16 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 34 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 22 of 51 | 43% | 13 of 39 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 35 | 6 of 11 | 5 of 5 | |
| 3 | Julian Erosa | 22 of 51 | 43% | 13 of 39 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 18 of 44 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 22 of 50 | 44% | 15 of 43 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 42 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 |
Angelo picks Hakeem Dawodu, citing his technical striking and power. He notes Erosa relies on his chin and was losing to a lower-level striker before getting late takedowns. He thinks Dawodu's technicality and power will be too much, and he has a moneyline bet on Dawodu.
Big Brady picks Hakeem Dawodu to win by second-round knockout, praising Dawodu's striking and power. He notes Julian Erosa is very hittable and has been knocked out multiple times, while Dawodu looked phenomenal in his last fight. He believes Dawodu is the better striker and will land clean, though he acknowledges Erosa is always in exciting fights and could finish himself.
Cody picks Hakeem Dawodu, noting his clean technical striking and that he is a better striker than Erosa. He likes the under 2.5 rounds at plus money, as Erosa is a wild fighter who often leads to finishes. He believes Dawodu's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing and that he will pick Erosa apart.
Daniel Levi picks Hakeem Dawodu confidently. He praises Dawodu's technical striking, low stance, and volume, and considers him a top-15 featherweight. He notes Erosa's tendency to get dropped but come back, but believes Dawodu's technical soundness will prevent a comeback. Levi sees Dawodu winning by knockout or decision.
Jacob agrees, saying if the fight stays clean, Dawodu dominates in a kickboxing match. He notes Erosa's only chance is to turn it into a brawl, but Dawodu has good takedown defense. He thinks Dawodu should win easily but might sprinkle Erosa into a DraftKings lineup as an underdog.
The host is confident in Hakeem Dawodu, expecting his crisp striking, discipline, and distance management to outpoint the wild and hittable Erosa. He sees a decision win as the most likely path and notes Dawodu's decision prop at +140.
Paul is confident in Hakeem Dawodu, calling him one of his anchors. He praises Dawodu's Muay Thai and technique, and believes his takedown defense is sufficient. He expects Dawodu to win by late stoppage or decision, as Erosa is wild and loopy with his strikes. He notes that Erosa fights down to his opponent's level.
The MMA Guru picks Hakeem Dawodu to win by 29-28 decision, losing the third round but winning the first two. He notes Dawodu had a bad weight cut, so Erosa's pace may get to him later. Dawodu will pick at Erosa at range, chew up his leg, land body shots, and win clinch exchanges. Erosa may steal the third round with pressure, but Dawodu's first two rounds secure the win.
Nate Landwehr - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 2 | 37 of 49 | 75% | 40 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 2 | 37 of 49 | 75% | 40 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 37 of 49 | 75% | 23 of 33 | 7 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 35 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Nate Landwehr | 15 of 30 | 50% | 9 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 37 of 49 | 75% | 23 of 33 | 7 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 35 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Nate Landwehr | 15 of 30 | 50% | 9 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Cub Swanson in his retirement fight, citing his superior technique, fight IQ, and all-around skills. He notes Landwehr's reliance on his chin, which has given out, and believes Swanson is the better fighter everywhere. He expects the crowd support to help in a decision.
Big Brady expects a war, noting both fighters are durable and willing to brawl. He thinks Landwehr could use his grappling to submit Swanson, who has been submitted seven times. He worries about Landwehr's recent knockout losses and damage taken, but leans Landwehr by submission in the second or third round.
Cody also picks Swanson, citing Landwehr's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Swanson's speed and volume will be too much for Landwehr, who has been knocked out recently.
Connor picks Landwehr, arguing that Swanson is too slow now and that Landwehr's pressure and durability will be too much. He notes that Swanson's last fight against Billy Quarantillo was tooth-and-nail, and that Swanson can't move his feet anymore. Connor believes Landwehr is still capable of winning a grimy pocket fight, and that Swanson's age (42) and layoff will catch up to him. He thinks Swanson will end up in Landwehr's kind of fight and get chin-checked.
Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Landwehr, believing that Landwehr's pressure, leg kicks, and grappling will overwhelm the aging Cub Swanson. He notes that Swanson's cardio fades after the first round and that Landwehr is durable and gets better as the fight goes on. He also mentions that Swanson's retirement fight may be a paycheck fight.
Daniel respects Swanson but thinks Landwehr's pace and calf kicks will be too much for the 42-year-old. He sees Landwehr winning by accumulation of damage or submission.
The host leans towards Landwehr due to Swanson's long layoff (2 years) at age 42, which could lead to significant decline. He notes Landwehr's more recent fight showed better cardio, while Swanson slowed in his last fights. He also thinks Landwehr is more likely to be fully focused, while Swanson has outside business distractions. However, he acknowledges both fighters are old and inconsistent, so confidence is low.
James picks Cub Swanson, citing his experience in wars and technical striking advantage. He acknowledges Landwehr's pressure but believes Swanson's durability and power will prevail.
Swanson's technical striking and counter-punching should be the difference. Landwehr is durable but tends to run into shots and has been knocked out recently. Swanson's footwork and experience allow him to land clean counters. Landwehr may try to grapple, but Swanson's defensive grappling is solid. Swanson should get the knockout in his retirement fight.
Paul picks Swanson, noting his experience, speed, and training with young killers. He believes Landwehr's durability is declining and Swanson's crisp striking will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr. He believes Swanson still has it, with recent wins over Billy Quarantillo and a split decision with Andre Fili. He notes Landwehr gets caught and KO'd, and Swanson can land a looping overhand. He predicts a TKO win in round one or two, with Swanson having a retirement send-off.
Zane picks Swanson, arguing that Landwehr is too simplistic and one-dimensional. He notes that Swanson still has head movement and pocket comfort, and that Landwehr has no footwork, feints, or subtlety. Zane believes Swanson can outclass Landwehr, comparing it to Swanson fighting a downgraded version of Jeremy Stevens. He acknowledges Swanson's age but thinks his experience and savvy will prevail. He hopes Swanson wins and retires on a high note.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 63 of 155 | 40% | 65 of 158 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Morgan Charrière | 1 | 67 of 131 | 51% | 67 of 131 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 18 of 46 | 39% | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 27 of 43 | 62% | 27 of 43 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 43 of 103 | 41% | 43 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Morgan Charrière | 0 | 33 of 64 | 51% | 33 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Morgan Charrière | 1 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 63 of 155 | 40% | 54 of 142 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 63 of 153 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 67 of 131 | 51% | 41 of 100 | 12 of 14 | 14 of 17 | 64 of 124 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 18 of 46 | 39% | 14 of 40 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 18 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 27 of 43 | 62% | 14 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 11 | 25 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 43 of 103 | 41% | 38 of 96 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 43 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 33 of 64 | 51% | 20 of 47 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 33 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 2 | |
| 3 | Nate Landwehr | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Morgan Charrière | 7 of 24 | 29% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo is very confident Morgan Charrière wins, calling him the better fighter everywhere except grit and determination. He thinks Charrière's striking, grappling, and wrestling are superior, and Landwehr's pressure won't be enough. However, he says he can't bet on Charrière because French fighters are too unreliable.
Big Brady thinks Morgan Charrière is the more skilled fighter everywhere, with better striking and underrated grappling. He notes Charrière has only been finished once and has good cardio. However, he hates the -260 line and worries about a hometown decision for Landwehr. He picks Charrière by decision.
Connor picks Charrière confidently, noting that Landwehr is a simple brawler who will walk into shots, while Charrière is younger, faster, and more technical. He compares Landwehr's style to Doo Ho Choi's win over Landwehr, where Choi easily countered him. Connor believes Charrière's craft and gas tank should allow him to pick Landwehr apart, though he warns that Charrière has a tendency to wait and see, which could be dangerous against a relentless pressure fighter.
The host acknowledges that Charrière's slow pace striking approach caught up with him against Nathaniel Wood, but believes he will land bigger shots and mix in takedowns against Landwehr. He expects Landwehr to struggle with output and volume, leading to Charrière winning a decision. The pick is based on Charrière's power and ability to control the fight.
The MMA Guru picks Morgan Charrière, expressing concern about Nate Landwehr's recent performance against Doo Ho Choi where he looked slower and was easily hit. He notes Charrière's experience in five-round fights and his competitive showing against Shep Mariscal. He believes Charrière can catch Landwehr on the chin and finish him by TKO in the first round, as Landwehr's chin may be compromised.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Charrière because Landwehr presents similar problems to Nathaniel Wood and Chepe Mariscal but in a simpler, bludgeoning way. He notes that Landwehr's wins come through sheer durability and brawling, but Charrière has the technical skill to counter him. Zane adds that if Charrière loses, it would be a huge red flag about his potential.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dooho Choi | 0 | 25 of 67 | 37% | 32 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 78 of 116 | 67% | 114 of 157 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 7:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dooho Choi | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 40 of 66 | 60% | 40 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 | |
| 2 | Dooho Choi | 0 | 12 of 30 | 40% | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 23 of 29 | 79% | 26 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 | |
| 3 | Dooho Choi | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 48 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dooho Choi | 25 of 67 | 37% | 13 of 47 | 9 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 15 of 55 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Landwehr | 78 of 116 | 67% | 61 of 98 | 9 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 62 of 99 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dooho Choi | 9 of 25 | 36% | 2 of 11 | 4 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Landwehr | 40 of 66 | 60% | 32 of 57 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 38 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Dooho Choi | 12 of 30 | 40% | 7 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 23 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Landwehr | 23 of 29 | 79% | 15 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Dooho Choi | 4 of 12 | 33% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Landwehr | 15 of 21 | 71% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Landwehr (-142), Choi (+120)
Round 1
Strange card placement aside, this featherweight brawl was one the UFC brass considered guaranteed fireworks. It’s not a bird or a plane, it’s “The Train” Landwehr (18-5, 5-3 UFC). Standing across the cage from him will be “The Korean Superboy” Choi (15-4-1, 4-3-1 UFC), and referee Chris Tognoni is as ready as anyone else for this one to go down. Before they swing for the bleachers, the strikers touch ‘em up. Landwehr practically runs into Choi’s hand, coming out so fired up. It is Choi who lands first, blasting Landwehr in the face with a surprise uppercut. Choi wraps a right hand around the guard, and he knocks Landwehr to a knee with a massive left hook. Landwehr bounces back and is in front of Choi, but Choi is attacking while Landwehr’s first strike of the fight is a stomping kick to the knee. Choi scores a leg kick and puts a few punches behind it, shaking “The Train” up. Landwehr tries to get a little space with a front kick as blood trickles from the inside corners of both eyebrows, and Choi crashes towards him with a blistering uppercut. Choi backs off with a leg kick, and he digs a left to the body and allows Landwehr to shoot on him so he can push Landwehr to his knees. Choi takes his back but does not try to get his hooks in. When Landwehr adjusts, Choi suddenly wraps his legs around his foe’s waist and to keep him on the canvas. Choi sits down comfortably and allows his opponent to spin around so they can stand up together. Choi drives a knee to the midsection when Landwehr stands, and he walks the Tennessee native down to hurt him with a right hand and then an uppercut. Landwehr tries to pitch another front kick, and Choi rings his bell with a painful uppercut. Choi drops down, absorbs a knee and stands up tall and bangs the top of his head off Landwehr’s chin. Choi marches forward fearlessly, landing punches on either side of the head while Landwehr is stuck keeping his guard up most of the time. Choi goes to the body, and Landwehr strikes back with a right hand. Choi knocks Landwehr’s head back like a Pez dispenser with a nasty uppercut, and Landwehr closes in to clinch and get his bearings. Landwehr scores a short strike on the inside, and he pushes out of the tie-up using a knee. Choi dings him with one last left, and the one-sided round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Round 2
Choi offers a glove touch when Landwehr rushes at him to begin the second stanza, and they trade hands early with Choi landing first, last and much faster. Choi hammers the front leg with a kick, throwing Landwehr off-balance, and he uses his jab to set up power strikes. Choi connects with a low kick, and Landwehr ties him up and leans against him on the cage for a time. Choi spins him about, takes an elbow and breaks off. Choi boxes him up, mixing up the straight punches to the head and body. When Landwehr comes at him, Choi chops down his front leg. Landwehr keeps moving after taking the kick, bopping the South Korean in the nose with a spinning back elbow. Choi allows him to complete his rotation so he can hurl “The Train” to the floor like side of beef. Choi steps into full mount with ease, and he thinks about gripping a choke and lets it go to hit Landwehr in the back of the head. Landwehr scrambles to escape the precarious position, but he ends up getting flattened out on his stomach while Choi smacks him upside the head. Landwehr does not settle for staying flat for long, and Choi stretches him out but is not attempting much else in the way of submissions. Choi gets both hooks in and does not want to set up the body triangle so he can back out of this, and he lets Landwehr follow him so he can suddenly tackle the former M-1 champ down to the canvas. Choi lands in half guard and decides against taking advantage of the position, instead bailing on it and standing up. Landwehr follows immediately and pushes Choi to the fencing, but the South Korean is quick to turn him about. Two clubbing strikes from Landwehr land right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Round 3
The fighters clap hands, and Landwehr throws caution to the wind immediately. Landwehr hurls huge punches, with haymakers that land flush on the side of Choi’s dome. Choi laughs them off and swings back just as hard, but faster. Landwehr backs himself up to the fence in hopes of goading Choi towards him, but he has to settle for following Choi. As Landwehr gets as reckless as can be, Choi hits an easy takedown and advances immediately to side control. Choi wraps up Landwehr’s left arm between his legs to lock down a crucifix, and he hammers down a few elbows before Landwehr sits up. Choi uses his body weight to keep Landwehr stuck in the bad place, and he pounds on Landwehr’s face with fists when elbows are not the right strike. Choi draws further blood as he bludgeons “The Train,” with Landwehr’s bucks and twists thwarted each and every turn. Choi slashes down with methodical elbows, and Tognoni asks for Landwehr to improve his position. Choi punches Landwehr several times in the mouth, and Landwehr groans and grunts. With Tognoni watching on closely, Choi hammers the nail with a final barrage of elbows. Tognoni waves the fight off, and Landwehr is disappointed but not about to cry foul after getting beaten up for the better part of three rounds. Winner of two in a row, “The Korean Superboy” announces himself as a renewed force in the talent-rich featherweight division.
The Official Result
Doo Ho Choi def. Nate Landwehr R3 3:21 via TKO (Elbows)
Angelo picks Nate Landwehr, citing his relentless pressure and takedowns against Choi's poor takedown defense. He expects Landwehr to shoot a million takedowns and grind out a win. However, he notes Landwehr is chinny and 36, and Choi has power, so he will probably avoid betting on this fight due to red flags.
Cody picks Landwehr, believing his aggressive pressure will overwhelm Choi. He notes Choi's finesse style and vulnerability to pressure fighters. He expects a violent fight and suggests it won't go to decision.
Connor picks Landwehr based on confidence and momentum. He notes that Choi went eight years without a win and looked mentally fragile, while Landwehr is a dog who thrives on chaos. Connor believes Landwehr will force a war and that Choi's defense and confidence are not up to the task.
Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Landwehr, citing that Dooho Choi's best days are behind him and his chin may be compromised after getting knocked out by Charles Jourdain. He notes Landwehr is solid everywhere, especially on the feet, and has underrated submission skills with two of his last four wins by submission. He likes the number on Landwehr and sees him as a good candidate for a club-and-sub.
Daniel picks Choi to upset Landwehr, citing Choi's improved cardio and technique since his return. He believes Choi's clean boxing and experience in wars will overcome Landwehr's attrition style. He predicts a knockout, noting Landwehr gets hurt in every fight.
Jeff Fox agrees with Vreeland, emphasizing that people sleep on Landwehr's submission skills, noting his nice darce chokes and front headlock game. He also points out that Dooho Choi's best days are behind him and his chin may not be as good as it used to be, as evidenced by getting knocked out by Charles Jourdain. Fox believes Choi is a one-dimensional power puncher without a steel chin, so he takes Landwehr all day.
Lucrative James picks Nate Landwehr to win inside the distance, citing his grappling upside, cardio advantage, and higher level of competition. He acknowledges the volatility due to both fighters being hittable, but believes Landwehr's experience and durability will prevail. He suggests looking at props like TKO or submission in rounds 2 or 3.
Choi has the technical striking advantage and confidence from knocking out Bill Algeo earlier this year. He will counter Landwehr off his back foot and find a big shot within one and a half rounds to get a knockout victory.
Paul picks Landwehr, citing his relentless pressure and ability to break opponents. He notes Choi's accuracy but thinks Landwehr's chaos will be too much. He expects a fun fight and believes Landwehr wins more often than not.
The MMA Guru picks Nate Landwehr, believing pressure breaks Dooho Choi. He notes Choi can be pressured and broken, and while Choi could catch Landwehr early, Landwehr's recovery is good. He expects Landwehr to mix in grappling in the second and third rounds, leading to a TKO win or a D'Arce choke.
Zane agrees, citing Landwehr's self-belief and Choi's lack of confidence. He notes that Choi's defense has always been poor and that Landwehr will bring the chaos that Choi struggles with. Zane also points out that Choi's win over Bill Algeo was against a fading opponent, while Landwehr is a proven tough out.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 1 | 37 of 76 | 48% | 37 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Jamall Emmers | 0 | 39 of 78 | 50% | 39 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 1 | 37 of 76 | 48% | 37 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Jamall Emmers | 0 | 39 of 78 | 50% | 39 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 37 of 76 | 48% | 34 of 70 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 24 of 62 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 4 |
| Jamall Emmers | 39 of 78 | 50% | 24 of 59 | 13 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 74 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 37 of 76 | 48% | 34 of 70 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 24 of 62 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 4 |
| Jamall Emmers | 39 of 78 | 50% | 24 of 59 | 13 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 74 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jamall Emmers but is hesitant due to the odds and Nate Landwehr's forward pressure. He notes Emmers is a calculated striker with good takedown defense, but Landwehr's relentless pressure could cause problems. He goes back and forth on whether Emmers should be a 2-to-1 favorite, ultimately sticking with Emmers but not fully confident.
Big Brady picks Jamall Emmers to win by decision. He notes Emmers has a reach advantage, good striking with leg kicks, and elite takedown defense. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Emmers is the better striker, though Landwehr is tough and can eat shots. Brady sees a competitive decision win for Emmers.
Cody picks Emmers despite being a fan of Landwehr, citing Emmers' speed, lateral movement, and wrestling. He worries about Landwehr's durability and recklessness, and thinks Emmers can pick him apart from the outside. He also notes a potential weight cut issue for Emmers but still favors him.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jamall Emmers but with hesitation due to the price (-220). He acknowledges Emmers' superior skills and athleticism but worries about his mental consistency and decision-making (e.g., leg lock exchange with Pat Sabatini). He thinks Emmers should win if he stays focused, but notes Landwehr's pressure and durability could make it tough. He prefers to pass or look at props.
Emmers has speed, agility, and wrestling but has shown poor fight IQ (e.g., striking with Julian Rosa after grappling success). Landwehr's constant forward pressure and durability could trouble Emmers. If Emmers uses his wrestling and counters, he should win, but his tendency to brawl is a risk. Prediction: Emmers by decision, but not a confident bet.
Paul is tempted by Landwehr's dog mentality and plus money, but acknowledges Emmers' skill advantage. He makes a shoey bet with Cody, taking Landwehr at 2-to-1 odds, showing some faith in Landwehr's ability to out-tough Emmers.
The host picks Jamall Emmers to knock out Nate Landwehr in the first round. He believes Landwehr's chin is suspect, citing his fights against Austin Lingo and David Onama where he got wobbled. He thinks Emmers is underrated, with wins over quality opponents, and has the reach, speed, and patience to land a clean shot. He predicts a first-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 1 | 88 of 184 | 47% | 88 of 184 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 74 of 195 | 37% | 74 of 195 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 0 | 14 of 45 | 31% | 14 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 12 of 44 | 27% | 12 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dan Ige | 1 | 41 of 78 | 52% | 41 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 30 of 69 | 43% | 30 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Dan Ige | 0 | 33 of 61 | 54% | 33 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 32 of 82 | 39% | 32 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 88 of 184 | 47% | 61 of 143 | 19 of 31 | 8 of 10 | 78 of 169 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 7 |
| Nate Landwehr | 74 of 195 | 37% | 54 of 161 | 13 of 24 | 7 of 10 | 55 of 168 | 18 of 24 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 14 of 45 | 31% | 8 of 34 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 14 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Landwehr | 12 of 44 | 27% | 9 of 33 | 1 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 9 of 40 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dan Ige | 41 of 78 | 52% | 28 of 59 | 10 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 68 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 7 |
| Nate Landwehr | 30 of 69 | 43% | 20 of 57 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 59 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 3 | |
| 3 | Dan Ige | 33 of 61 | 54% | 25 of 50 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 30 of 56 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Landwehr | 32 of 82 | 39% | 25 of 71 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 69 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dan Ige, but is cautious about betting. He acknowledges Ige is the better fighter skill-for-skill, but Nate Landwehr's relentless pressure and unpredictability could cause problems. He compares it to the Jaime Malarkey situation where a favorite was put in parlays and lost. He will keep Ige out of parlays and not bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Nate Landwehr to win a close decision. He notes that Landwehr is higher volume and can mix in takedowns, while Ige is more skilled but lower volume. Both are tough, but Landwehr's pace and wrestling could edge rounds. He expects a back-and-forth war and thinks Landwehr's activity will earn him the nod.
Cody picks Dan Ige by knockout, citing Ige's durability (Hawaiians don't get knocked out) and power advantage. He notes that Landwehr can get wobbled, as seen in the Julian Erosa fight. He believes Ige's quick hands and combinations will be too much for Landwehr, who tends to brawl recklessly. He took Ige by KO at +205, expecting a finish in round 2.
Connor picks Ige, emphasizing his technical improvement and durability. He notes that Ige has a great chin and has weathered shots from big punchers. He believes Ige's counter-punching and takedown ability will capitalize on Landwehr's reckless aggression. He also notes that Landwehr is not a technical fighter and often leaves himself open.
Daniel Levi picks Dan Ige, citing Ige's crisp boxing and power, and noting that Nate Landwehr has poor striking defense and gets chinned in almost every fight. He references that Korean Zombie said Ige was the hardest hitter he ever fought. He believes Ige will knock Landwehr out, especially given Landwehr's tendency to get tagged up early. He mentions that if Landwehr survives the early onslaught, he could take over late, but he sees Ige as the cleaner, more experienced fighter.
James picks Dan Ige to win, either by knockout in round one or by decision. He believes Ige is a level above Landwehr in MMA, with sharper boxing and heavier hands. Landwehr is a brawler who gets hit often and has been knocked out before. James thinks Ige's veteran savvy will prevent him from being dragged into a wild war, and that Ige will land the cleaner, more damaging shots. He notes Ige is four years younger and has faced better competition.
Ige's tight boxing and counter-striking should exploit Landwehr's wild aggression. Landwehr has durability concerns and has been knocked out before. Ige's power and accuracy should find a finish, likely in the second round. Landwehr could win if he overwhelms Ige with output and takedowns, but Ige's well-rounded game gives him the edge.
Paul picks Dan Ige, emphasizing Ige's endless cardio, speed, and experience against elite competition. He notes that Landwehr's wild brawling style leaves him open, and Ige's quick hand speed and combinations will clip him. He believes Landwehr's takedown threat is minimal because Landwehr prefers to stand and brawl. He expects Ige to win by decision or knockout, but his gut says knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige despite being a fan of Nate Landwehr, citing Ige's knockout power and Landwehr's tendency to get hit with his chin up. He notes Ige has finished fighters like Damon Jackson and Gavin Tucker, while Landwehr has been caught before. He predicts a late first-round KO for Ige, though he hopes Landwehr wins.
Zane picks Ige, noting that Landwehr's style is to build momentum without a foundation, which can be exploited by a disciplined fighter like Ige. He believes Ige will have many opportunities to counter Landwehr's wild attacks and that Ige's takedowns will be effective. He also notes that Landwehr is not as fast as Ige.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 64 of 153 | 41% | 68 of 160 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Austin Lingo | 0 | 48 of 146 | 32% | 50 of 148 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 34 of 78 | 43% | 34 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Lingo | 0 | 30 of 91 | 32% | 31 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 30 of 75 | 40% | 34 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Austin Lingo | 0 | 18 of 55 | 32% | 19 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 64 of 153 | 41% | 36 of 104 | 9 of 25 | 19 of 24 | 61 of 148 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Austin Lingo | 48 of 146 | 32% | 28 of 116 | 17 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 48 of 146 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 34 of 78 | 43% | 20 of 52 | 2 of 9 | 12 of 17 | 34 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Lingo | 30 of 91 | 32% | 19 of 75 | 8 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 30 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 30 of 75 | 40% | 16 of 52 | 7 of 16 | 7 of 7 | 27 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Austin Lingo | 18 of 55 | 32% | 9 of 41 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Landwehr but is hesitant, citing concerns about Lingo's short-notice weight cut. He notes that Landwehr is high-pressure and gritty, but that Lingo hits hard and has good takedown defense. He thinks Landwehr's pace and grappling will be key, but acknowledges Lingo is much better than the odds suggest. He says he is not betting on this fight because the odds are unappealing.
Big Brady picks Nate Landwehr by submission, noting that Landwehr has a sneaky submission game and can mix in takedowns. He acknowledges Lingo's power and early danger but believes Landwehr's cardio and pressure will break Lingo as the fight goes on. Brady points out that Lingo has been taken down easily on the regional scene and expects Landwehr to capitalize late, predicting a third-round submission.
Cody picks Landwehr despite the -225 price, citing his relentless pressure, cardio, and ability to break opponents. He notes Landwehr is a slow starter but comes on strong, and that Lingo is a one-dimensional boxer with no takedown defense. He acknowledges the risk of Landwehr getting KO'd due to his reckless style but believes Lingo won't get a quick finish. He expects Landwehr to back Lingo up and break him down.
Connor picks Landwehr despite acknowledging Lingo has a puncher's chance. He notes Landwehr is a better athlete and super tough, but his brawling style will give Lingo opportunities. He thinks Landwehr's physicality and willingness to brawl will allow him to push Lingo to the cage and slow him down.
Jacob picks Landwehr but is not confident, noting that Landwehr is the better fighter but often fights recklessly for entertainment. He points out that Landwehr almost got knocked out in his last fight and that Lingo is dangerous. He says the fight is a coin flip if Landwehr chooses to stand and trade. He might throw a small bet on Lingo as an underdog depending on weigh-ins.
The host is surprised to see Lingo as such a big underdog, believing his boxing style is perfect to counter Landwehr's wild striking. He thinks Lingo's power and countering opportunities will lead to a knockout. He notes Lingo trains at Fortis MMA and has good durability. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and Lingo by knockout.
The Guru picks Landwehr, praising his toughness and clinch work. He notes that Lingo's finishing ability has dropped against better competition, while Landwehr has beaten solid fighters like Elkins and Klein. He predicts a late finish or decision win for Landwehr.
Zane picks Landwehr because Lingo has thrived against opponents who didn't want to brawl, but Landwehr will meet him head-on with pressure. He believes Landwehr's better athleticism and willingness to be the bully will allow him to push Lingo to the cage and take away his brawling ability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 91 of 185 | 49% | 133 of 253 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 | 1 | 5:05 |
| David Onama | 1 | 71 of 174 | 40% | 79 of 186 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 1:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 29 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:31 |
| David Onama | 1 | 46 of 91 | 50% | 53 of 101 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 43 of 76 | 56% | 65 of 116 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:08 |
| David Onama | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:20 | |
| 3 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 27 of 57 | 47% | 39 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
| David Onama | 0 | 17 of 62 | 27% | 17 of 63 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 91 of 185 | 49% | 73 of 154 | 10 of 18 | 8 of 13 | 52 of 120 | 22 of 35 | 17 of 30 |
| David Onama | 71 of 174 | 40% | 62 of 158 | 8 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 50 of 139 | 1 of 3 | 20 of 32 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 21 of 52 | 40% | 13 of 38 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 8 | 14 of 43 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 |
| David Onama | 46 of 91 | 50% | 39 of 80 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 64 | 1 of 3 | 16 of 24 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 43 of 76 | 56% | 35 of 66 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 37 | 7 of 12 | 14 of 27 |
| David Onama | 8 of 21 | 38% | 7 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | Nate Landwehr | 27 of 57 | 47% | 25 of 50 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 40 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| David Onama | 17 of 62 | 27% | 16 of 59 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
Angelo picks David Onama due to his power and technical striking. He notes Landwehr is a live underdog with forward pressure but if Onama gets room, he will get the knockout. Onama is also a knockout kings pick.
Big Brady picks David Onama to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Onama has a 100% finish rate and is the more dangerous striker with more power. Landwehr has good takedown defense (87%) but is hittable and has been knocked out twice in the UFC. Brady expects a stand-up war where Onama lands the bigger shots and finishes Landwehr.
Cody picks David Onama, acknowledging his bias for Landwehr but reasoning that Onama's power and athleticism will catch Landwehr coming forward. He notes Landwehr's durability issues and that Onama is getting more comfortable in the UFC. Cody believes Onama will clip Landwehr at some point.
Daniel Levi picks Nate Landwehr as a plus-265 underdog, acknowledging the risk of Onama's African power and raw talent. He believes Landwehr can win if he fights disciplined with his hands up, uses his experience, and drags Onama into deep waters. Levi notes that Onama is still green and that Landwehr showed improved technique in his last fight. However, he admits Landwehr could get knocked out early.
The host picks Landwehr as the biggest upset on the card based on odds. He notes Landwehr's takedowns, control time, and output, and believes he can pull it off at +290. He also mentions that Landwehr in front of a full crowd is very live.
Paul picks David Onama by TKO, citing Onama's power and reach advantage. He notes that Landwehr has been finished in the first round twice and tends to run into strikes. Paul likes Onama by TKO at +175 as a way to avoid the -315 moneyline.
The host picks David Onama by first-round TKO, comparing the fight to Onama's win over Gabriel Benítez. He notes Landwehr's tendency to get hit early and lack of head movement, and believes Onama's crisp shots will land. He initially had high confidence but lowered it after considering Landwehr's crowd energy, though he still picks Onama.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 71 of 130 | 54% | 103 of 163 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:46 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 42 of 85 | 49% | 44 of 87 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 37 of 61 | 60% | 61 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:32 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Nate Landwehr | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 18 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landwehr | 71 of 130 | 54% | 41 of 85 | 18 of 30 | 12 of 15 | 45 of 93 | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 42 of 85 | 49% | 20 of 55 | 18 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 39 of 80 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Landwehr | 20 of 41 | 48% | 5 of 20 | 10 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 14 of 32 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 19 of 37 | 51% | 6 of 20 | 11 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Landwehr | 37 of 61 | 60% | 30 of 49 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 33 | 20 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 13 of 31 | 41% | 9 of 24 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 27 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nate Landwehr | 14 of 28 | 50% | 6 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ľudovít Klein | 10 of 17 | 58% | 5 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident Klein wins, likely by stoppage. He praises Klein's phenomenal striking, footwork, and smooth movement, which will allow him to dance around Landwehr's wild pressure. Landwehr is feast-or-famine and puts himself in harm's way. Klein also showed new wrestling elements in his last fight. Angelo thinks Klein's footwork and clean striking will lead to a finish, though he acknowledges Landwehr's chaos could cause an upset.
Big Brady is confident Klein wins by knockout, likely a head kick, given Landwehr's poor striking defense and history of being knocked out. He notes Klein has multiple head kick KOs on his record and Landwehr is hittable and reckless. He sees no clear path to victory for Landwehr.
Cody picks Landwehr as a dog, acknowledging his durability issues but believing his pressure and cardio will overwhelm Klein if he survives the first round. He notes that Klein faded in his last fight against Trizano and that Landwehr's all-action style and track record of pushing a pace make him live as an underdog. He plans to use it as a PRP shot at the bottom of parlays.
Daniel picks Klein to win early, citing his dangerous high kick and first-round explosiveness. He worries about Klein's cardio if the fight goes past the first round, as seen in the Mike Trizano fight. Landwehr gets hit a lot (8 strikes per minute), which is a recipe for disaster against a sharp striker like Klein. However, if Klein doesn't finish early, Landwehr's toughness and deep-water experience could make it interesting.
Klein is a precise, powerful striker who will land a fight-ending shot on Landwehr, whose chin is deteriorating. Landwehr has poor striking defense and has been knocked out recently. Klein by KO is the most likely outcome, likely in the first two rounds.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses both fighters' strengths and weaknesses but does not state a definitive choice.
The MMA Guru picks Ľudovít Klein by first-round KO, citing Landwehr's recent chin issues and tendency to get knocked down by any shot. He notes Klein's head-kick KOs and fast starts, predicting a head kick to combination finish. He acknowledges Landwehr's past success but attributes recent losses to a deteriorating chin.
Expert Picks (1)
Daniel Levi praises Nate Landwehr's toughness, iron chin, and ability to survive bad positions, noting his M-1 Global championship run in Russia. He contrasts that with Julian Erosa's durability issues, having been knocked out five times. Levi thinks Landwehr will be more threatened by Erosa's length than he was by Darren Elkins, but still expects Landwehr's durability to be the deciding factor. He sees value in Landwehr at pick'em odds and predicts a win, possibly by decision.
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