vs
+128 -124
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis Next Fight
Age 36
Height 6' 1"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 37
Height 5' 9"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Julian Erosa
6.18 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
6.31 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
1.73 TD Avg
43.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Nate Landwehr
5.63 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
5.83 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.76 TD Avg
41.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Julian Erosa
Moneyline
FanDuel +128
KO/TKO
BetWay +450
Submission
BetWay +400
Decision
BetWay +275
Nate Landwehr
Moneyline
DraftKings -124
KO/TKO
BetWay +275
Submission
BetWay +1000
Decision
BetWay +300
Julian Erosa - Fight History
LOSS vs Lerryan Douglas
KO R1 3:33 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 17 of 46 36% 18 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Lerryan Douglas 2 29 of 48 60% 30 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 17 of 46 36% 18 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Lerryan Douglas 2 29 of 48 60% 30 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 17 of 46 36% 13 of 40 2 of 2 2 of 4 16 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lerryan Douglas 29 of 48 60% 18 of 37 3 of 3 8 of 8 25 of 39 2 of 6 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 17 of 46 36% 13 of 40 2 of 2 2 of 4 16 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lerryan Douglas 29 of 48 60% 18 of 37 3 of 3 8 of 8 25 of 39 2 of 6 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Angelo picks Lando Vannata (Lerryan Douglas) as the more skilled fighter, cleaner and faster, and less hittable than Julian Erosa. He thinks Erosa's pressure could be a factor but believes Vannata's technique will prevail. He notes the odds are appropriate.

"I think Lando's the more skilled fighter. He's cleaner, he's faster, far less hittable than the borderline human punching bag in Julian Erosa."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Big Brady picks Lerryan Douglas to win by second-round knockout. He praises Douglas's power, calling him one of the hardest hitters in the featherweight division. He criticizes Julian Erosa's chin, noting he has been knocked out seven times and has poor striking defense. He expects a violent fight and believes Douglas will connect and knock Erosa out brutally.

Douglas by KO round 2
"Give me Lariano Douglas to win this fight and win it by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Cody favors Douglas to land a knockout due to Erosa's questionable chin and low hands. He acknowledges Erosa's path to victory via submission but thinks Douglas's power will prevail.

"Douglas probably just does catch him at some point."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Connor picks Douglas, expecting a flattening. He notes that Erosa is losing a step and looks slow and cumbersome, as seen in the Elkins and Costa fights. Douglas is a fast power puncher who sells out, and if he catches Erosa early, he can finish him. However, he acknowledges that if Erosa survives the first round, he tends to win.

Odds: Douglas opened -350, now -300; Erosa opened +285, now +250. Connor says odds are too wide.
"I think I'm going to take the flattening. I'm going to pick Douglas."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Daniel expects Douglas to knock out Erosa, citing Erosa's weak chin and Douglas's left hook power. He warns that if Douglas doesn't finish early, Erosa could make it competitive, but ultimately picks Douglas by KO.

"I'm going to pick Lerone Douglas to come out here and knock out Julian Erosa with a left hook."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)
Julian Erosa

The host sees value on Erosa as an underdog, believing the odds are too wide. Erosa is tough, has great cardio, and applies relentless pressure, which could trouble debutant Douglas. However, Erosa's recent poor fight IQ (losing to a one-legged opponent) gives pause. The host prefers the fight spread (+3.5) on Erosa rather than the moneyline, as he expects a competitive fight.

Likes Erosa +3.5 fight spread and over 1.5 rounds.
"All the value lies on Erosa this weekend. You'd be crazy to bet Douglas."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

The host thinks Douglas will find a knockout due to his power and Erosa's defensive flaws, but he is cautious because Erosa's chin held up in his last fight. He expects Douglas to expose Erosa's awkward striking exits but acknowledges the risk if Erosa's durability holds. He suggests the knockout prop might be the play.

knockout
"I think he finds the knockout. I think he exposes the flaws in the uh the defensive striking game of Julian Rosa... I'm going to go Douglas by knockout, but I'm just a little bit queasy about that type of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Paul is torn, calling it dog or pass. He considers Erosa's value but doesn't commit, suggesting live betting Erosa after the first round.

"I'm going to say dog or pass for the purposes of this show."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

The MMA Guru picks Lerryan Douglas, calling him a 'clobberer' who throws heat-seeking punches. He believes Douglas's power and fast starts will be too much for Julian Erosa, whose chin is questionable. He notes Douglas's training at Bloodline MMA with Cub Swanson and Danny Silva as a positive. He predicts a KO in the first round.

KO in round 1
"We're going with Larry and Douglas. And also Larry and Douglas trains with uh Bloodline MMA."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Zane picks Erosa just for fun, calling it a coin flip. He notes that Douglas is awful moving backward and collapses inward, while Erosa is capable of pushing forward and has a vicious clinch game. He points out that Erosa has survived early trouble before and that Douglas's losses come from guys who gave him what he asked for and he couldn't handle it.

Odds: Douglas opened -350, now -300; Erosa opened +285, now +250. Zane says odds should be closer.
"I'll take Arosa just for fun."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 69 of 173 39% 85 of 202 3 of 10 30% 0 0 3:34
Melquizael Costa 0 102 of 204 50% 128 of 236 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 27 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:36
Melquizael Costa 0 32 of 75 42% 32 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Julian Erosa 0 23 of 54 42% 30 of 62 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:56
Melquizael Costa 0 33 of 55 60% 47 of 70 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:08
3 Julian Erosa 0 36 of 93 38% 45 of 113 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:02
Melquizael Costa 0 37 of 74 50% 49 of 91 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 69 of 173 39% 42 of 140 18 of 24 9 of 9 55 of 150 13 of 21 1 of 2
Melquizael Costa 102 of 204 50% 67 of 160 16 of 22 19 of 22 99 of 196 3 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 10 of 26 38% 5 of 19 1 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 2
Melquizael Costa 32 of 75 42% 14 of 52 7 of 10 11 of 13 32 of 73 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Julian Erosa 23 of 54 42% 11 of 40 8 of 10 4 of 4 15 of 43 8 of 11 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 33 of 55 60% 25 of 46 3 of 4 5 of 5 31 of 53 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Julian Erosa 36 of 93 38% 26 of 81 9 of 11 1 of 1 31 of 83 5 of 10 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 37 of 74 50% 28 of 62 6 of 8 3 of 4 36 of 70 1 of 3 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-192), Erosa (+160)

Round 1
Although much can be said about the state of UFC matchmaking as of late, the promotion knew exactly what it was doing when it matched Erosa (31-11, 9-7 UFC) against Costa (23-7, 4-2 UFC). It chose violence. The featherweights will go for broke under the watchful eye of referee Herb Dean, and they get right to it after embracing the formality of bumping fists. Costa prods with the ball of his foot, looking for low kicks as Erosa walks him down. Costa keeps working on the front leg as Erosa gives him one back, and Erosa grabs his foe’s foot and lifts it up. Costa bounces off the fence to get his limb back, and he whiffs on two hooks. Costa scores a body kick as he stays on the outside, and after pitching a leg kick, he trips on the edge of the cage but does not fall over. Erosa lets him get up and continues to trade kicks with him, and Costa mixes things up with a surprise Superman punch. Costa follows it with a booming head kick that rocks “Juicy J,” who backs off to the fence but is still dangerous as a coiled snake. Costa walks forward to throw bombs, and Erosa snipes him with a mean right hand that makes him think twice. Erosa gets his legs back beneath him and blocks a head kick, walking Costa down but taking three punches on the chin to do so. Erosa fakes a spin and lunges forward with an elbow, slipping and falling over. Costa lets him up so he can leap at him with a knee, and he chains punches into a body kick as Erosa is now the one retreating. Costa parries a few punches and lets fly a left hand, and his second effort reaches his man. Costa wraps a head kick around the guard and Erosa shrugs it off, nailing Costa with a right hand over the top. Erosa jumps at his foe to attack, and Costa times a spinning back kick that pounds into the cup. Erosa grumbles and adjusts his groin supporter before waving Dean off. Costa lets his foe’s fists and feet whiz past him so he can deliver a hard body kick, and Erosa fakes his way in to take the fight down. Erosa whips Costa all the way around to take him down, and he slashes down with an elbow as soon as he gets to side control. Costa is warned for having his toes in the cage, and Erosa drops down a few punches and leans back to watch an upkick buzz past him at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
Costa’s left foot is leaking blood as the second round begins, but he shrugs it off and touches gloves with his opponent. Erosa gets right into attack mode, firing off a head kick and a right hand but getting countered with a left and a body kick. Costa belts “Juicy J” with a left hand, and Erosa bites down on his mouthpiece to unload a power punch. Costa shakes Erosa up with a one-two, and Erosa again has to recover before coming forward. The punches of Costa make Erosa pursue a takedown, and Costa defends with a guillotine choke and stands back up to re-secure it. Erosa holds on and leverages Costa back down, but he in submission danger again. Costa lets go before burning his arms out, and he stands up. Erosa leans on from behind, his left eye swelling up fast. Costa defends a takedown effort and keeps his balance, stomping Erosa’s foot and receiving an elbow in the face for his effort. As Erosa is leaning heavily on his man, Costa sweeps his leg and puts him down for a second. Erosa climbs back up and walks through a one-two. Costa reaches the Washington native at the end of a left hand, and Erosa fires back with a vengeance. They reach one another with long punches, and instead of clinching, Erosa pushes off and shrugs at him. Costa lines up a solid crescent kick that hits the target, and Erosa goes for broke with punches and kicks to any target he can find. Erosa pokes Costa in the eye, and Costa tells them he is fine and keeps going. Erosa thanks him by drilling a spinning back kick in his ribs, and Costa laughs it off and throws hammers. Erosa staggers Costa with a pair of hooks, and a grinning Costa swings back with bad intentions and rocks Erosa. Erosa spins through to hit Costa in the face with his foot, and he knocks Costa across the cage with a left hand right before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erosa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
While Erosa does touch gloves, he is a man on a mission. Walking Costa down immediately, he swings his way into a clinch. Erosa leans on the Brazilian to slow him down, getting off the occasional knee until Costa trips him and sets him down. Erosa responds by nailing Costa with an upkick and working his way to his feet, where he backs “Melk” off and dislodges his mouthpiece with a right hand. He follows with another right hand to lead into a clinch, and Costa backs off with a left hook. The two clash heads after Erosa lands an uppercut, and “Juicy J” pours it on while swinging wildly. Costa’s head movement keeps him relatively safe, and he blasts Erosa in the jaw with four punches in a combination. Erosa’s movement leads him to banging into the fence, but he is quick to shake it off and uppercut Costa in the chops. Erosa continues staying in Costa’s face, with punches that lead to an elbow as Costa is backing off but smiling. Erosa lines up punches in bunches, and his elbows are not accurate. They proceed to brawl it out with little regard to defense or cardio, and even though Costa is fatigued, he is still loading up with everything he has. Thankfully for those watching this carnage, Erosa is doing just the same, as they proceed to hammer one another in the jaw again and again. Costa trips Erosa up to get a second to breathe, and he backs off to avoid an upkick and let Erosa stand. Erosa marches ever forward, swinging recklessly while Costa is giving it back when he can. Costa takes several punches square on the jaw and offers up a knee, and Erosa spins with a back fist. A second and third back fist from Erosa do manage to rail into the Brazilian, who is as tough as nails and never falters. The action-packed “Fight of the Night” candidate goes the distance, and both exhausted men raise their arms. The second round may be where the victor emerges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erosa (29-28 Erosa)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa (29-28 Costa)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa (29-28 Costa)

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Julian Erosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Angelo picks Melquizael Costa with high confidence, stating that Costa should be better everywhere. He notes Costa's creative striking, solid grappling, and incredible scrambles. His only concern is Costa's activity level, as this will be his fifth fight in 12 months, which could lead to nagging injuries or fatigue. However, Angelo is not overly concerned and expects Costa to win.

"Mel Costa. I am very confident in this pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Big Brady picks Julian Erosa as a dog, acknowledging Costa could knock him out early. He notes Costa's quick turnaround and tendency to slow down, while Erosa has great cardio and a nasty choke game. He predicts Erosa wins by second-round submission if it gets extended.

Erosa by submission, round 2
"I like a Rosa here as a dog. ... I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melquizael Costa

The host notes Costa's aggressiveness and unorthodox striking can catch Erosa off guard, especially since six of Erosa's seven losses have come by knockout. He feels Costa can take advantage of Erosa's mistakes and get a finish. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds.

Costa by KO/TKO; under 2.5 rounds
"I think his just aggressiveness and unorthodox striking approach can really catch Arosa offguard."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melquizael Costa

The Guru picks Melquizael Costa, calling him a fellow 'fraud checker' who can handle Julian Erosa's gritty style. He notes Costa's grappling looked improved against Christian Rodriguez and his kicks are very good. He worries about Erosa's upset potential but believes Costa is better and more active. He predicts a TKO or decision win.

"I'm going to have to go with Malikisel Costa. I think he's just better by far than Julian Rosa."
WIN vs Darren Elkins
KO R1 4:15 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 13 of 31 41% 18 of 45 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:48
Julian Erosa 0 54 of 73 73% 69 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 13 of 31 41% 18 of 45 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:48
Julian Erosa 0 54 of 73 73% 69 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 13 of 31 41% 11 of 28 1 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 2
Julian Erosa 54 of 73 73% 52 of 71 0 of 0 2 of 2 22 of 39 11 of 12 21 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 13 of 31 41% 11 of 28 1 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 2
Julian Erosa 54 of 73 73% 52 of 71 0 of 0 2 of 2 22 of 39 11 of 12 21 of 22
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Julian Erosa

Daniel Levi states that Julian Erosa did exactly what he was supposed to do as a big favorite, handling the older veteran Darren Elkins. He approves of the performance.

"Rosa did exactly what he was supposed to do as a big favor. You go out there and you handle, you know, the kind of old decrepit 40-year-old vet, and that's exactly what he did."
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 4:49 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 35 of 88 39% 39 of 94 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Christian Rodriguez 0 33 of 75 44% 33 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 35 of 88 39% 39 of 94 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Christian Rodriguez 0 33 of 75 44% 33 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 35 of 88 39% 27 of 73 7 of 13 1 of 2 33 of 84 2 of 4 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 33 of 75 44% 26 of 67 2 of 2 5 of 6 31 of 73 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 35 of 88 39% 27 of 73 7 of 13 1 of 2 33 of 84 2 of 4 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 33 of 75 44% 26 of 67 2 of 2 5 of 6 31 of 73 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Julian Erosa vs. Christian Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-205), Erosa (+170)

Round 1
Always willing to either add to his highlight reel or be a part of someone else’s, Erosa (29-11, 7-7 UFC) and his .500 record come to a head with Roufusport’s Rodriguez (11-1, 4-1 UFC). While “CeeRod” holds four wins on the scorecards, three of those have come in his last three outings. On the other hand, the last three walks to the cage for Erosa have ended in the first round. Whether it takes three minute or three rounds to get to a result, referee Nick Berens will be here for it from start to finish. The featherweights bump fists, and Erosa uses a front kick to keep Rodriguez away. Rodriguez passes right past it and puts his hands on Erosa’s face. Erosa is reddened up in a hurry from the quick punches from Rodriguez, and he answers with a pair of looping uppercuts. Erosa flicks out his jab, and Rodriguez dips down and smashes him in the face with a head kick. As they trade, Rodriguez’ mouthpiece goes flying, and Erosa sees it and decides it is time to brawl. They slug it out fast and furiously until Berens finds a moment to replace the gumshield, and they get right back to it. Erosa goads Rodriguez on, and he clips “CeeRod” with a right hand in the midst of a speedy combination. They both connect with powerful blows, and Erosa gets off a strong front kick. Rodriguez kicks his man upside the head, and Erosa tells him to bring it on. Rodriguez does just that. Erosa manages to get Rodriguez to take a step back with his own counters, and his front kick to the chest and face are able to keep the hard-charging Rodriguez relatively at bay. Rodriguez settles down and tosses out a low kick, and Erosa wags his finger at him and rings his bell an elbow. Erosa walks his man down and pounds him in the face with his fists, and Rodriguez responds with a flurry ending with a right hand that staggers Erosa back. Erosa gathers his thoughts and marches forward, a cut opened on the bridge of his nose, and he lets go with a head kick that is blocked. Another elbow from Erosa comes up short, and he catches a kick and bowls and trips Rodriguez to the mat. Erosa scrambles to take Rodriguez’ back and set up a body triangle, and he is quick to consider an armbar instead of going after the neck like usual. Rodriguez defends the possible submission and turns to his knees, and he manages to flip Erosa over. Erosa’s upkicks do not keep Rodriguez off of him, as Rodriguez leaps at him and punches him hard.
Erosa ignores them and grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and it is suddenly and surprisingly tight. Erosa tightens his legs around the waist of his foe and turns to the side, and falls to his back to complete the submission. Rodriguez tries to tough it out, but he is forced to surrender with seconds left on the clock.
Erosa sits up and shoves Rodriguez off of him when Berens intervenes, springing yet another upset and adding one more impressive stoppage to his ledger. The victorious "Juicy J" becomes the first fighter to finish Rodriguez as a professional.

The Official Result
Julian Erosa def. Christian Rodriguez R1 4:49 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Angelo picks Christian Rodriguez but with caution, noting that Rodriguez has been gifted decisions and has never faced a veteran as experienced as Julian Erosa. He acknowledges Rodriguez's slick striking and composure but points out his lack of finishing ability and the fact that Erosa is much larger and more experienced. Angelo warns that the odds seem wide for a fighter who lost to the last tough veteran he faced.

"I do think Christian Rodriguez wins this fight but the odds seem wide two to one favorite 3 to one favorite that seems wide"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez, highlighting his youth, cardio, and striking advantage. He notes Erosa's history of getting knocked out and believes Rodriguez will overwhelm him with volume and power. He expects a finish, possibly in the first or second round.

"Rodriguez just crushes him like first round knockout."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Daniel Vreeland picks Christian Rodriguez to win, predicting his first UFC knockout. He notes that Rodriguez has handed prospects their first losses and that Erosa's chin is a massive liability. He advises Rodriguez to headhunt rather than engage in a technical battle. He believes Rodriguez will pass the Erosa test.

by KO
"I'm gonna go Christian Rodriguez here to get it done and continue the big win streak."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Christian Rodriguez is the slicker striker and one of the best prospects on the roster. Despite a height and reach disadvantage, he will crash the pocket, land combinations, and eventually drop Erosa, leading to a knockout or a club-and-sub opportunity.

"I think Rodriguez is one of the best if not the best prospect on the roster right now and I think you'll showcase it once again by picking up the biggest win of his UFC career"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Paul picks Rodriguez, citing his superior cardio and durability. He notes Erosa's knockout losses and believes Rodriguez's pressure will be too much. He acknowledges Erosa's length but thinks Rodriguez's pace will win the fight.

"I'll be going with Christian Rodriguez as well."
WIN vs Ricardo Ramos
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:15 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 7 of 17 41% 12 of 23 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:27
Ricardo Ramos 0 4 of 11 36% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 7 of 17 41% 12 of 23 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:27
Ricardo Ramos 0 4 of 11 36% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 7 of 17 41% 5 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 2
Ricardo Ramos 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 7 of 17 41% 5 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 2
Ricardo Ramos 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Angelo leans towards Julian Erosa as an underdog, citing his higher level of competition and ability to weather a storm and grind out a decision. He notes that Ramos is dangerous but also finishable, while Erosa is tough and can dog fights out. He will monitor the line movement for better value.

"I'm going to lean the underdog here I'm going to go with Julian he has the much higher level of competition under his belt and I can see him weathering a storm and then grinding out a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Big Brady picks Ricardo Ramos, citing Julian Erosa's poor durability (knocked out seven times at featherweight) and low striking defense (47%). He notes Erosa is hittable and his chin is not getting better after back-to-back knockout losses. He expects Ramos to land something and knock Erosa out in the first round.

first round knockout
"I'm taking ricado Ramos I'll take him to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Cody picks Erosa as an underdog, citing his volume and unorthodox style. He acknowledges Erosa's weak chin but believes Ramos is not a big power puncher and may struggle with Erosa's pressure. Cody thinks Erosa can win by decision or late finish if he avoids getting knocked out.

"I will take this ever so slight Underdog play here on Juicy J Julian orosa."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Daniel Vreeland picks Ricardo Ramos by first-round knockout, emphasizing that Erosa has a terrible chin and has been dropped multiple times. He believes Ramos should head-hunt and sell out for the finish, as Erosa is dangerous if the fight extends. He notes if it goes past the first round, all bets are off.

Ramos by first-round knockout
"I think Ramos is gonna come out here and get a ko1"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Ramos has the grappling edge and should be able to muzzle Erosa's unorthodox striking. Erosa is on a two-fight KO loss streak and may be on the chopping block. Ramos should dictate the pace and win on the scorecards, possibly even latching onto a submission. The fight going to decision is also appealing at plus money.

Fight goes to decision (plus money)
"I think that we'll see the better body of work from hamos and I think we'll see him win this fight on the scorecards I think the fight to go to decision is what I like the most."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Paul picks Erosa by KO, noting Ramos's cardio issues and tendency to struggle when missing weight. He believes Erosa's volume and durability will overwhelm Ramos. Paul also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish.

under 2.5 rounds
"I'm thinking orosa by KO is where I would think here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

The MMA Guru picks Ricardo Ramos over Julian Erosa, citing Ramos's finishing potential and Erosa's recent chin issues. He mentions Erosa's KO losses to Fernando Padilla and Alex Caceres, and a war with Steven Peterson that makes him doubt Erosa. He predicts a first-round KO for Ramos.

round one KO
"I'm going with Ricardo Ramos... this boy is getting chinned by Ricardo Ramos in round one"
TKO (punches) R1 1:41 · UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon · Apr 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Fernando Padilla 0 15 of 24 62% 15 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Julian Erosa 1 20 of 29 68% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Fernando Padilla 0 15 of 24 62% 15 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Julian Erosa 1 20 of 29 68% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Fernando Padilla 15 of 24 62% 9 of 18 1 of 1 5 of 5 15 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Erosa 20 of 29 68% 17 of 25 2 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Fernando Padilla 15 of 24 62% 9 of 18 1 of 1 5 of 5 15 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Erosa 20 of 29 68% 17 of 25 2 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Fernando Padilla

Cody picks Padilla as an underdog, citing Erosa's durability issues and tendency to get knocked out. He notes that Padilla has decent power and could catch Erosa early. However, he is flip-floppy and admits he wants to pick Erosa due to experience, but the favorite tag on a chinny fighter makes him lean towards the underdog.

"for the purposes of the show I need some underdogs and I'll I'm gonna take Padilla but like ah I want to take a Rosa I really really do"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Connor thinks Erosa's experience and durability will prevail. He notes Padilla's poor defense and tendency to gas, and that Erosa gets stronger as fights go on. He acknowledges Erosa's history of getting KO'd but believes Padilla's lack of power and technical striking make it less likely. He sees Erosa as the more versatile fighter in messy exchanges.

Odds mentioned: Erosa opened -252, currently -140. Padilla opened +218, currently +126. Connor thinks the odds should be closer to 50/50.
"I'm going to take your Rosa as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Paul picks Erosa but very cautiously, acknowledging his chin issues and recent knockout losses. He notes that Erosa is talented and exciting but has been knocked out by light punchers. He is not confident enough to bet on Erosa, but for the pick he goes with Erosa, hoping he doesn't get cracked again.

"I'm gonna be picking Julian Arosa but uh ever so cautiously because that chin can get cracked and has got cracked"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Zane agrees, citing Padilla's limited game and Erosa's ability to win scrambles and late rounds. He notes Padilla's submissions off his back but thinks Erosa's aggression and cardio will be decisive. He sees Erosa as the rightful slight favorite.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm going to take your Rosa as well."
LOSS vs Alex Caceres
TKO (head kick and punches) R1 3:04 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Caceres 1 16 of 30 53% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Julian Erosa 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Caceres 1 16 of 30 53% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Julian Erosa 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Caceres 16 of 30 53% 9 of 19 3 of 6 4 of 5 13 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 6
Julian Erosa 10 of 22 45% 2 of 11 3 of 4 5 of 7 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Caceres 16 of 30 53% 9 of 19 3 of 6 4 of 5 13 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 6
Julian Erosa 10 of 22 45% 2 of 11 3 of 4 5 of 7 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Angelo is very confident in Julian Erosa, believing he can win the stand-up exchanges and stay alive on the ground. He notes Erosa has more power, volume, and good enough takedowns to keep Caceres guessing. He acknowledges Caceres' experience could sneak out a win but thinks Erosa is dangerous and well-rounded enough.

"I love Julian erosa in this spot and he's one of the few confident picks I have on this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Big Brady picks Julian Erosa, noting that Erosa is typically an underdog but is favored here. He likes Erosa's volume, pressure, power, and submission game. He thinks Caceres lacks power and has been submitted many times. He expects Erosa to break Caceres and get a second-round submission.

Erosa wins by submission in round 2
"I like a Rosa to kind of break because Sarah says the fight goes on and I'll say Rosa gets a second round submission win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Cody picks Erosa, noting his inconsistency but coming off a good performance against Hakeem Dawodu. He thinks Erosa has all the intangibles: volume, movement, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Caceres is a gatekeeper who beats lower-level guys but loses to legit fighters. He expects Erosa to outwork Caceres and win by decision.

Erosa by decision
"I gotta go with that man he looks so complete against Hakeem... I think Rosa wins gross wins by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)

The host bet the over 2.5 rounds, not a moneyline pick. He thinks both guys are durable and neither has big knockout power, so it should go to decision. He leans Erosa to win but doesn't like the -170 moneyline. No clear winner pick.

Over 2.5 rounds at -155, 1.55 units; mentioned Erosa by decision
"I don't really think considers has that big pop in his shots to put him down and put him out same on the erosa side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Paul picks Erosa, agreeing with Cody. He notes his biggest concern with Erosa is his chin against power punchers, but Caceres is not a one-hitter quitter. He expects Erosa to clear 65.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks, as he throws high volume and the fight likely goes to decision.

Erosa over 65.5 significant strikes (PrizePicks)
"I will be adding erosa significant strikes more than 65.5 on price picks"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

The MMA Guru picks Julian Erosa over Alex Caceres, believing Erosa's pace, pressure, and wrestling will be too much. He notes Caceres is vegan and Erosa goes to the body a lot, which could be a factor. He thinks Caceres won't finish Erosa, and Erosa's grappling is too good to get submitted. He predicts a third-round finish or decision win for Erosa, citing his recent wins over Hakeem Dawodu and Nate Landwehr.

"I'll go Juliana Rosa I think it's time to stop doubting him as a fighter"
WIN vs Hakeem Dawodu
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 74 of 147 50% 90 of 163 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:12
Hakeem Dawodu 0 92 of 188 48% 152 of 257 2 of 6 33% 0 0 4:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 31 of 57 54% 36 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Hakeem Dawodu 0 48 of 87 55% 60 of 99 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:41
2 Julian Erosa 0 21 of 39 53% 28 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Hakeem Dawodu 0 22 of 51 43% 47 of 80 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
3 Julian Erosa 0 22 of 51 43% 26 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:08
Hakeem Dawodu 0 22 of 50 44% 45 of 78 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 74 of 147 50% 43 of 109 18 of 21 13 of 17 57 of 126 16 of 20 1 of 1
Hakeem Dawodu 92 of 188 48% 60 of 149 28 of 32 4 of 7 59 of 149 24 of 30 9 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 31 of 57 54% 14 of 36 10 of 12 7 of 9 23 of 48 8 of 9 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 48 of 87 55% 32 of 67 15 of 16 1 of 4 34 of 72 14 of 15 0 of 0
2 Julian Erosa 21 of 39 53% 16 of 34 2 of 2 3 of 3 16 of 34 5 of 5 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 22 of 51 43% 13 of 39 6 of 9 3 of 3 11 of 35 6 of 11 5 of 5
3 Julian Erosa 22 of 51 43% 13 of 39 6 of 7 3 of 5 18 of 44 3 of 6 1 of 1
Hakeem Dawodu 22 of 50 44% 15 of 43 7 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 42 4 of 4 4 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Angelo picks Hakeem Dawodu, citing his technical striking and power. He notes Erosa relies on his chin and was losing to a lower-level striker before getting late takedowns. He thinks Dawodu's technicality and power will be too much, and he has a moneyline bet on Dawodu.

moneyline bet on Dawodu
"I love Hakeem Dawodu I love him in this fight I have a money line bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Big Brady picks Hakeem Dawodu to win by second-round knockout, praising Dawodu's striking and power. He notes Julian Erosa is very hittable and has been knocked out multiple times, while Dawodu looked phenomenal in his last fight. He believes Dawodu is the better striker and will land clean, though he acknowledges Erosa is always in exciting fights and could finish himself.

second round knockout
"I think Keem knocks him out I'll say in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Cody picks Hakeem Dawodu, noting his clean technical striking and that he is a better striker than Erosa. He likes the under 2.5 rounds at plus money, as Erosa is a wild fighter who often leads to finishes. He believes Dawodu's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing and that he will pick Erosa apart.

Under 2.5 rounds at +120
"i think the wadu wins but i like the under more um for my money"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Daniel Levi picks Hakeem Dawodu confidently. He praises Dawodu's technical striking, low stance, and volume, and considers him a top-15 featherweight. He notes Erosa's tendency to get dropped but come back, but believes Dawodu's technical soundness will prevent a comeback. Levi sees Dawodu winning by knockout or decision.

"I do have hakim dawa do to win this fight but i gotta give credit to arosa."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Jacob agrees, saying if the fight stays clean, Dawodu dominates in a kickboxing match. He notes Erosa's only chance is to turn it into a brawl, but Dawodu has good takedown defense. He thinks Dawodu should win easily but might sprinkle Erosa into a DraftKings lineup as an underdog.

might sprinkle Erosa into a DraftKings lineup
"If this stays clean there is not many people in the UFC in the featherweight division that are gonna beat Hakeem in a clean kickboxing match."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

The host is confident in Hakeem Dawodu, expecting his crisp striking, discipline, and distance management to outpoint the wild and hittable Erosa. He sees a decision win as the most likely path and notes Dawodu's decision prop at +140.

Hakeem Dawodu by decision (+140)
"Give me Hakeem Dawodu by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Paul is confident in Hakeem Dawodu, calling him one of his anchors. He praises Dawodu's Muay Thai and technique, and believes his takedown defense is sufficient. He expects Dawodu to win by late stoppage or decision, as Erosa is wild and loopy with his strikes. He notes that Erosa fights down to his opponent's level.

"at -220 i feel like hakeem is going to be one of my anchors this week i think he's a better striker takedown defense is good enough to keep this fight standing"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2022 (fight day)
Hakeem Dawodu

The MMA Guru picks Hakeem Dawodu to win by 29-28 decision, losing the third round but winning the first two. He notes Dawodu had a bad weight cut, so Erosa's pace may get to him later. Dawodu will pick at Erosa at range, chew up his leg, land body shots, and win clinch exchanges. Erosa may steal the third round with pressure, but Dawodu's first two rounds secure the win.

decision 29-28
"I think we're gonna see a 29-28 decision by Hakeem dawadu losing the third round but winning the first two"
Nate Landwehr - Fight History
LOSS vs Cub Swanson
TKO R1 4:06 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 2 37 of 49 75% 40 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Nate Landwehr 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 2 37 of 49 75% 40 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Nate Landwehr 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 37 of 49 75% 23 of 33 7 of 7 7 of 9 35 of 46 0 of 0 2 of 3
Nate Landwehr 15 of 30 50% 9 of 22 1 of 1 5 of 7 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 37 of 49 75% 23 of 33 7 of 7 7 of 9 35 of 46 0 of 0 2 of 3
Nate Landwehr 15 of 30 50% 9 of 22 1 of 1 5 of 7 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Angelo picks Cub Swanson in his retirement fight, citing his superior technique, fight IQ, and all-around skills. He notes Landwehr's reliance on his chin, which has given out, and believes Swanson is the better fighter everywhere. He expects the crowd support to help in a decision.

"I have to pick Cub Swanson here. Obviously, Nate is very gritty, very tough, but if your chin gives out, your chin gives out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Big Brady expects a war, noting both fighters are durable and willing to brawl. He thinks Landwehr could use his grappling to submit Swanson, who has been submitted seven times. He worries about Landwehr's recent knockout losses and damage taken, but leans Landwehr by submission in the second or third round.

third round submission
"I'm going to take Nate Landwehr to win this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody also picks Swanson, citing Landwehr's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Swanson's speed and volume will be too much for Landwehr, who has been knocked out recently.

"I got to go against the grain, go against my boy... for me, it's going to be a Cup Swanson play."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Connor picks Landwehr, arguing that Swanson is too slow now and that Landwehr's pressure and durability will be too much. He notes that Swanson's last fight against Billy Quarantillo was tooth-and-nail, and that Swanson can't move his feet anymore. Connor believes Landwehr is still capable of winning a grimy pocket fight, and that Swanson's age (42) and layoff will catch up to him. He thinks Swanson will end up in Landwehr's kind of fight and get chin-checked.

Odds comment: Swanson opened +170, currently -115; Landwehr opened -200, currently -105.
"I think he'll beat Nate Landware? This would be a good one to discuss then. Why do you think he'll lose? Uh, Landware is a, not a lot better, but a little bit better of an athlete."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Landwehr, believing that Landwehr's pressure, leg kicks, and grappling will overwhelm the aging Cub Swanson. He notes that Swanson's cardio fades after the first round and that Landwehr is durable and gets better as the fight goes on. He also mentions that Swanson's retirement fight may be a paycheck fight.

"I think you get me to round two, you get me to round three, and Nate cooks him to the bone. So, I'm going with Nate Landwehr here, and I actually am considering a bet in this spot."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel respects Swanson but thinks Landwehr's pace and calf kicks will be too much for the 42-year-old. He sees Landwehr winning by accumulation of damage or submission.

"I'm going to go Nate Landworth here. I really think that if Nate Lander doesn't get knocked out or badly compromised, his pace is going to be too much for Cub Swanson."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nate Landwehr

The host leans towards Landwehr due to Swanson's long layoff (2 years) at age 42, which could lead to significant decline. He notes Landwehr's more recent fight showed better cardio, while Swanson slowed in his last fights. He also thinks Landwehr is more likely to be fully focused, while Swanson has outside business distractions. However, he acknowledges both fighters are old and inconsistent, so confidence is low.

Likes Landwehr +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes over but warns against betting over due to age.
"I would lean towards Nate Landwehr in this fight for a few reasons. The first being, Cub's coming in on a long layoff. And at 42 years old, you can significantly decline in a very short space of time."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

James picks Cub Swanson, citing his experience in wars and technical striking advantage. He acknowledges Landwehr's pressure but believes Swanson's durability and power will prevail.

"I'm actually going to pick Cub Swanson in this one cuz I feel like he's been there, done it multiple times."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Swanson's technical striking and counter-punching should be the difference. Landwehr is durable but tends to run into shots and has been knocked out recently. Swanson's footwork and experience allow him to land clean counters. Landwehr may try to grapple, but Swanson's defensive grappling is solid. Swanson should get the knockout in his retirement fight.

Swanson wins by knockout
"I think he gets his Swan song in emphatic fashion. And I think he gets a knockout victory over Nate the Train Lanware."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Swanson, noting his experience, speed, and training with young killers. He believes Landwehr's durability is declining and Swanson's crisp striking will prevail.

"Honestly, I am going with Cub Swanson. And I just feel like Cub... he's not a little cub anymore. He's Papa Bear Swanson now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr. He believes Swanson still has it, with recent wins over Billy Quarantillo and a split decision with Andre Fili. He notes Landwehr gets caught and KO'd, and Swanson can land a looping overhand. He predicts a TKO win in round one or two, with Swanson having a retirement send-off.

"I'm going to go with Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson, arguing that Landwehr is too simplistic and one-dimensional. He notes that Swanson still has head movement and pocket comfort, and that Landwehr has no footwork, feints, or subtlety. Zane believes Swanson can outclass Landwehr, comparing it to Swanson fighting a downgraded version of Jeremy Stevens. He acknowledges Swanson's age but thinks his experience and savvy will prevail. He hopes Swanson wins and retires on a high note.

Odds comment: Swanson opened +170, currently -115; Landwehr opened -200, currently -105.
"I think cub can outclass him, honestly. Yeah, I want cub to outclass him."
KO R3 0:27 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Landwehr 0 63 of 155 40% 65 of 158 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Morgan Charrière 1 67 of 131 51% 67 of 131 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Landwehr 0 18 of 46 39% 20 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Morgan Charrière 0 27 of 43 62% 27 of 43 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:01
2 Nate Landwehr 0 43 of 103 41% 43 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Morgan Charrière 0 33 of 64 51% 33 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nate Landwehr 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Morgan Charrière 1 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Landwehr 63 of 155 40% 54 of 142 7 of 9 2 of 4 63 of 153 0 of 2 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 67 of 131 51% 41 of 100 12 of 14 14 of 17 64 of 124 2 of 3 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Landwehr 18 of 46 39% 14 of 40 3 of 3 1 of 3 18 of 45 0 of 1 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 27 of 43 62% 14 of 29 3 of 3 10 of 11 25 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Nate Landwehr 43 of 103 41% 38 of 96 4 of 6 1 of 1 43 of 102 0 of 1 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 33 of 64 51% 20 of 47 9 of 11 4 of 6 33 of 61 0 of 1 0 of 2
3 Nate Landwehr 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Angelo is very confident Morgan Charrière wins, calling him the better fighter everywhere except grit and determination. He thinks Charrière's striking, grappling, and wrestling are superior, and Landwehr's pressure won't be enough. However, he says he can't bet on Charrière because French fighters are too unreliable.

Cannot bet on Charrière due to unreliability of French fighters.
"Morgan's the pick. I'm very confident in that. But, I think we've learned you can't bet on them."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Big Brady thinks Morgan Charrière is the more skilled fighter everywhere, with better striking and underrated grappling. He notes Charrière has only been finished once and has good cardio. However, he hates the -260 line and worries about a hometown decision for Landwehr. He picks Charrière by decision.

decision
"I'll take Char to win this fight. I'll take it to win by decision. Hate the line, but I hate most lines on this card."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Connor picks Charrière confidently, noting that Landwehr is a simple brawler who will walk into shots, while Charrière is younger, faster, and more technical. He compares Landwehr's style to Doo Ho Choi's win over Landwehr, where Choi easily countered him. Connor believes Charrière's craft and gas tank should allow him to pick Landwehr apart, though he warns that Charrière has a tendency to wait and see, which could be dangerous against a relentless pressure fighter.

"I think you have to pick Charia here, but I like it. ... It's a great fight and it'll be a thriller because Landware won't ever give Charia space."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The host acknowledges that Charrière's slow pace striking approach caught up with him against Nathaniel Wood, but believes he will land bigger shots and mix in takedowns against Landwehr. He expects Landwehr to struggle with output and volume, leading to Charrière winning a decision. The pick is based on Charrière's power and ability to control the fight.

"Sherriier's slow pace striking approach caught up with him last time around as he came up short against Nathaniel Wood. And that could come back to haunt him here against Nate the Train, but I think ultimately we'll see Sherriier …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The MMA Guru picks Morgan Charrière, expressing concern about Nate Landwehr's recent performance against Doo Ho Choi where he looked slower and was easily hit. He notes Charrière's experience in five-round fights and his competitive showing against Shep Mariscal. He believes Charrière can catch Landwehr on the chin and finish him by TKO in the first round, as Landwehr's chin may be compromised.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Morgan Sharier. I reckon he gets this win and then they look to put him on the Paris card. I think he'll get a TKO win over Nate Lamwear here in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Charrière because Landwehr presents similar problems to Nathaniel Wood and Chepe Mariscal but in a simpler, bludgeoning way. He notes that Landwehr's wins come through sheer durability and brawling, but Charrière has the technical skill to counter him. Zane adds that if Charrière loses, it would be a huge red flag about his potential.

"I think this is a good reasonable step back. ... I think you have to pick Charia here."
LOSS vs Dooho Choi
TKO (elbows) R3 3:21 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dooho Choi 0 25 of 67 37% 32 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Nate Landwehr 0 78 of 116 67% 114 of 157 4 of 5 80% 0 0 7:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dooho Choi 0 9 of 25 36% 11 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Nate Landwehr 0 40 of 66 60% 40 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
2 Dooho Choi 0 12 of 30 40% 16 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Nate Landwehr 0 23 of 29 79% 26 of 32 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:00
3 Dooho Choi 0 4 of 12 33% 5 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Landwehr 0 15 of 21 71% 48 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dooho Choi 25 of 67 37% 13 of 47 9 of 15 3 of 5 15 of 55 10 of 12 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 78 of 116 67% 61 of 98 9 of 9 8 of 9 62 of 99 4 of 4 12 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dooho Choi 9 of 25 36% 2 of 11 4 of 10 3 of 4 6 of 20 3 of 5 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 40 of 66 60% 32 of 57 4 of 4 4 of 5 38 of 64 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Dooho Choi 12 of 30 40% 7 of 24 5 of 5 0 of 1 5 of 23 7 of 7 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 23 of 29 79% 15 of 21 5 of 5 3 of 3 18 of 24 3 of 3 2 of 2
3 Dooho Choi 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 15 of 21 71% 14 of 20 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 11 0 of 0 9 of 10
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Doo Ho Choi vs. Nate Landwehr
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Landwehr (-142), Choi (+120)

Round 1
Strange card placement aside, this featherweight brawl was one the UFC brass considered guaranteed fireworks. It’s not a bird or a plane, it’s “The Train” Landwehr (18-5, 5-3 UFC). Standing across the cage from him will be “The Korean Superboy” Choi (15-4-1, 4-3-1 UFC), and referee Chris Tognoni is as ready as anyone else for this one to go down. Before they swing for the bleachers, the strikers touch ‘em up. Landwehr practically runs into Choi’s hand, coming out so fired up. It is Choi who lands first, blasting Landwehr in the face with a surprise uppercut. Choi wraps a right hand around the guard, and he knocks Landwehr to a knee with a massive left hook. Landwehr bounces back and is in front of Choi, but Choi is attacking while Landwehr’s first strike of the fight is a stomping kick to the knee. Choi scores a leg kick and puts a few punches behind it, shaking “The Train” up. Landwehr tries to get a little space with a front kick as blood trickles from the inside corners of both eyebrows, and Choi crashes towards him with a blistering uppercut. Choi backs off with a leg kick, and he digs a left to the body and allows Landwehr to shoot on him so he can push Landwehr to his knees. Choi takes his back but does not try to get his hooks in. When Landwehr adjusts, Choi suddenly wraps his legs around his foe’s waist and to keep him on the canvas. Choi sits down comfortably and allows his opponent to spin around so they can stand up together. Choi drives a knee to the midsection when Landwehr stands, and he walks the Tennessee native down to hurt him with a right hand and then an uppercut. Landwehr tries to pitch another front kick, and Choi rings his bell with a painful uppercut. Choi drops down, absorbs a knee and stands up tall and bangs the top of his head off Landwehr’s chin. Choi marches forward fearlessly, landing punches on either side of the head while Landwehr is stuck keeping his guard up most of the time. Choi goes to the body, and Landwehr strikes back with a right hand. Choi knocks Landwehr’s head back like a Pez dispenser with a nasty uppercut, and Landwehr closes in to clinch and get his bearings. Landwehr scores a short strike on the inside, and he pushes out of the tie-up using a knee. Choi dings him with one last left, and the one-sided round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Choi

Round 2
Choi offers a glove touch when Landwehr rushes at him to begin the second stanza, and they trade hands early with Choi landing first, last and much faster. Choi hammers the front leg with a kick, throwing Landwehr off-balance, and he uses his jab to set up power strikes. Choi connects with a low kick, and Landwehr ties him up and leans against him on the cage for a time. Choi spins him about, takes an elbow and breaks off. Choi boxes him up, mixing up the straight punches to the head and body. When Landwehr comes at him, Choi chops down his front leg. Landwehr keeps moving after taking the kick, bopping the South Korean in the nose with a spinning back elbow. Choi allows him to complete his rotation so he can hurl “The Train” to the floor like side of beef. Choi steps into full mount with ease, and he thinks about gripping a choke and lets it go to hit Landwehr in the back of the head. Landwehr scrambles to escape the precarious position, but he ends up getting flattened out on his stomach while Choi smacks him upside the head. Landwehr does not settle for staying flat for long, and Choi stretches him out but is not attempting much else in the way of submissions. Choi gets both hooks in and does not want to set up the body triangle so he can back out of this, and he lets Landwehr follow him so he can suddenly tackle the former M-1 champ down to the canvas. Choi lands in half guard and decides against taking advantage of the position, instead bailing on it and standing up. Landwehr follows immediately and pushes Choi to the fencing, but the South Korean is quick to turn him about. Two clubbing strikes from Landwehr land right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Choi

Round 3
The fighters clap hands, and Landwehr throws caution to the wind immediately. Landwehr hurls huge punches, with haymakers that land flush on the side of Choi’s dome. Choi laughs them off and swings back just as hard, but faster. Landwehr backs himself up to the fence in hopes of goading Choi towards him, but he has to settle for following Choi. As Landwehr gets as reckless as can be, Choi hits an easy takedown and advances immediately to side control. Choi wraps up Landwehr’s left arm between his legs to lock down a crucifix, and he hammers down a few elbows before Landwehr sits up. Choi uses his body weight to keep Landwehr stuck in the bad place, and he pounds on Landwehr’s face with fists when elbows are not the right strike. Choi draws further blood as he bludgeons “The Train,” with Landwehr’s bucks and twists thwarted each and every turn. Choi slashes down with methodical elbows, and Tognoni asks for Landwehr to improve his position. Choi punches Landwehr several times in the mouth, and Landwehr groans and grunts. With Tognoni watching on closely, Choi hammers the nail with a final barrage of elbows. Tognoni waves the fight off, and Landwehr is disappointed but not about to cry foul after getting beaten up for the better part of three rounds. Winner of two in a row, “The Korean Superboy” announces himself as a renewed force in the talent-rich featherweight division.

The Official Result
Doo Ho Choi def. Nate Landwehr R3 3:21 via TKO (Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Angelo picks Nate Landwehr, citing his relentless pressure and takedowns against Choi's poor takedown defense. He expects Landwehr to shoot a million takedowns and grind out a win. However, he notes Landwehr is chinny and 36, and Choi has power, so he will probably avoid betting on this fight due to red flags.

Probably avoid betting, lots of red flags
"Nate lare is going to be the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Cody picks Landwehr, believing his aggressive pressure will overwhelm Choi. He notes Choi's finesse style and vulnerability to pressure fighters. He expects a violent fight and suggests it won't go to decision.

Fight doesn't go to decision
"Nate the train Landwehr, the official pick."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Connor picks Landwehr based on confidence and momentum. He notes that Choi went eight years without a win and looked mentally fragile, while Landwehr is a dog who thrives on chaos. Connor believes Landwehr will force a war and that Choi's defense and confidence are not up to the task.

Landwehr opened at -164, currently -133; Choi opened at +128, currently +119. Connor thinks the odds should not be getting closer and favors Landwehr.
"Nate Landwehr is who Michael Chandler thinks he is. He's really about that shit."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Landwehr, citing that Dooho Choi's best days are behind him and his chin may be compromised after getting knocked out by Charles Jourdain. He notes Landwehr is solid everywhere, especially on the feet, and has underrated submission skills with two of his last four wins by submission. He likes the number on Landwehr and sees him as a good candidate for a club-and-sub.

"I kick off the main card give me the train Nate ler D Choy best days are behind him even though he he did get a win probably since since I said that landar getting the job done um pretty …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dooho Choi

Daniel picks Choi to upset Landwehr, citing Choi's improved cardio and technique since his return. He believes Choi's clean boxing and experience in wars will overcome Landwehr's attrition style. He predicts a knockout, noting Landwehr gets hurt in every fight.

by KO
"I actually think Duho is going to come out here and knock out Nate Lander and shock a lot of people."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Jeff Fox agrees with Vreeland, emphasizing that people sleep on Landwehr's submission skills, noting his nice darce chokes and front headlock game. He also points out that Dooho Choi's best days are behind him and his chin may not be as good as it used to be, as evidenced by getting knocked out by Charles Jourdain. Fox believes Choi is a one-dimensional power puncher without a steel chin, so he takes Landwehr all day.

"yeah I think people sleep on his submission skills too uh like two out of his last four wins are by submission um you know he's got nice darus chokes front headlock kind of stuff he's a he's a good …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Lucrative James picks Nate Landwehr to win inside the distance, citing his grappling upside, cardio advantage, and higher level of competition. He acknowledges the volatility due to both fighters being hittable, but believes Landwehr's experience and durability will prevail. He suggests looking at props like TKO or submission in rounds 2 or 3.

wins inside the distance, wins by TKO, wins in round 2 or 3
"I do think Nate land will will win in round two or round three... Nate to win via TKO maybe Nate to win inside the distance."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dooho Choi

Choi has the technical striking advantage and confidence from knocking out Bill Algeo earlier this year. He will counter Landwehr off his back foot and find a big shot within one and a half rounds to get a knockout victory.

knockout within 1.5 rounds
"I do have to lean with the technical striking advantages of Troy and seeing the confidence that he probably gained from knocking out Bill alio earlier this year he probably is going to be able to counter lanor off his …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Paul picks Landwehr, citing his relentless pressure and ability to break opponents. He notes Choi's accuracy but thinks Landwehr's chaos will be too much. He expects a fun fight and believes Landwehr wins more often than not.

"I'm going to take Nate Landwehr to get done."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

The MMA Guru picks Nate Landwehr, believing pressure breaks Dooho Choi. He notes Choi can be pressured and broken, and while Choi could catch Landwehr early, Landwehr's recovery is good. He expects Landwehr to mix in grappling in the second and third rounds, leading to a TKO win or a D'Arce choke.

Nate Landwehr wins by TKO or submission (D'Arce choke)
"I'm gonna go with Nate lambwe pressure breaks dooho choy"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Zane agrees, citing Landwehr's self-belief and Choi's lack of confidence. He notes that Choi's defense has always been poor and that Landwehr will bring the chaos that Choi struggles with. Zane also points out that Choi's win over Bill Algeo was against a fading opponent, while Landwehr is a proven tough out.

"Nate Landwehr all day."
WIN vs Jamall Emmers
KO (punches) R1 4:43 · UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Mar 30, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Landwehr 1 37 of 76 48% 37 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Jamall Emmers 0 39 of 78 50% 39 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Landwehr 1 37 of 76 48% 37 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Jamall Emmers 0 39 of 78 50% 39 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Landwehr 37 of 76 48% 34 of 70 3 of 5 0 of 1 24 of 62 9 of 10 4 of 4
Jamall Emmers 39 of 78 50% 24 of 59 13 of 17 2 of 2 36 of 74 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Landwehr 37 of 76 48% 34 of 70 3 of 5 0 of 1 24 of 62 9 of 10 4 of 4
Jamall Emmers 39 of 78 50% 24 of 59 13 of 17 2 of 2 36 of 74 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Angelo picks Jamall Emmers but is hesitant due to the odds and Nate Landwehr's forward pressure. He notes Emmers is a calculated striker with good takedown defense, but Landwehr's relentless pressure could cause problems. He goes back and forth on whether Emmers should be a 2-to-1 favorite, ultimately sticking with Emmers but not fully confident.

"I'm still picking emers I'm staring at the odds though he's a two to one favorite and I just haven't made peace with that just yet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Big Brady picks Jamall Emmers to win by decision. He notes Emmers has a reach advantage, good striking with leg kicks, and elite takedown defense. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Emmers is the better striker, though Landwehr is tough and can eat shots. Brady sees a competitive decision win for Emmers.

"give me Jamal emers to kick it off with a decision win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Cody picks Emmers despite being a fan of Landwehr, citing Emmers' speed, lateral movement, and wrestling. He worries about Landwehr's durability and recklessness, and thinks Emmers can pick him apart from the outside. He also notes a potential weight cut issue for Emmers but still favors him.

"gotta go with Jamal emers this time"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Daniel Vreeland picks Jamall Emmers but with hesitation due to the price (-220). He acknowledges Emmers' superior skills and athleticism but worries about his mental consistency and decision-making (e.g., leg lock exchange with Pat Sabatini). He thinks Emmers should win if he stays focused, but notes Landwehr's pressure and durability could make it tough. He prefers to pass or look at props.

"I think Emmer's way more clean with his boxing technique faster with the hands but I could just see Nate making this a really hard fight for Jamal"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 26, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

Emmers has speed, agility, and wrestling but has shown poor fight IQ (e.g., striking with Julian Rosa after grappling success). Landwehr's constant forward pressure and durability could trouble Emmers. If Emmers uses his wrestling and counters, he should win, but his tendency to brawl is a risk. Prediction: Emmers by decision, but not a confident bet.

"I'm still going to pick him to win I think it's going to be tough for him to put LW away I'm going to take emeris Em by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Paul is tempted by Landwehr's dog mentality and plus money, but acknowledges Emmers' skill advantage. He makes a shoey bet with Cody, taking Landwehr at 2-to-1 odds, showing some faith in Landwehr's ability to out-tough Emmers.

"I want the plus 180 dog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jamall Emmers

The host picks Jamall Emmers to knock out Nate Landwehr in the first round. He believes Landwehr's chin is suspect, citing his fights against Austin Lingo and David Onama where he got wobbled. He thinks Emmers is underrated, with wins over quality opponents, and has the reach, speed, and patience to land a clean shot. He predicts a first-round TKO.

first round TKO
"I reckon Jamal emers has gone knock him out in the first my honest on this fight Jamal emers knocks him out in the first"
LOSS vs Dan Ige
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Jun 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Ige 1 88 of 184 47% 88 of 184 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Nate Landwehr 0 74 of 195 37% 74 of 195 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Ige 0 14 of 45 31% 14 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Landwehr 0 12 of 44 27% 12 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Dan Ige 1 41 of 78 52% 41 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Nate Landwehr 0 30 of 69 43% 30 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Dan Ige 0 33 of 61 54% 33 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Nate Landwehr 0 32 of 82 39% 32 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Ige 88 of 184 47% 61 of 143 19 of 31 8 of 10 78 of 169 6 of 8 4 of 7
Nate Landwehr 74 of 195 37% 54 of 161 13 of 24 7 of 10 55 of 168 18 of 24 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Ige 14 of 45 31% 8 of 34 4 of 7 2 of 4 14 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 12 of 44 27% 9 of 33 1 of 7 2 of 4 9 of 40 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Dan Ige 41 of 78 52% 28 of 59 10 of 16 3 of 3 34 of 68 3 of 3 4 of 7
Nate Landwehr 30 of 69 43% 20 of 57 7 of 8 3 of 4 23 of 59 6 of 7 1 of 3
3 Dan Ige 33 of 61 54% 25 of 50 5 of 8 3 of 3 30 of 56 3 of 5 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 32 of 82 39% 25 of 71 5 of 9 2 of 2 23 of 69 9 of 13 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Angelo picks Dan Ige, but is cautious about betting. He acknowledges Ige is the better fighter skill-for-skill, but Nate Landwehr's relentless pressure and unpredictability could cause problems. He compares it to the Jaime Malarkey situation where a favorite was put in parlays and lost. He will keep Ige out of parlays and not bet on this fight.

"my pick is going to be Danny gay but I'm gonna keep him out of parlays"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Big Brady picks Nate Landwehr to win a close decision. He notes that Landwehr is higher volume and can mix in takedowns, while Ige is more skilled but lower volume. Both are tough, but Landwehr's pace and wrestling could edge rounds. He expects a back-and-forth war and thinks Landwehr's activity will earn him the nod.

"I'm gonna say Nate landwer edges out a very very close competitive decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Cody picks Dan Ige by knockout, citing Ige's durability (Hawaiians don't get knocked out) and power advantage. He notes that Landwehr can get wobbled, as seen in the Julian Erosa fight. He believes Ige's quick hands and combinations will be too much for Landwehr, who tends to brawl recklessly. He took Ige by KO at +205, expecting a finish in round 2.

Dan Ige by knockout +205; round 2 guess
"I took Dan ige by knockout plus 205 which I believe is still out there on the market right now"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Connor picks Ige, emphasizing his technical improvement and durability. He notes that Ige has a great chin and has weathered shots from big punchers. He believes Ige's counter-punching and takedown ability will capitalize on Landwehr's reckless aggression. He also notes that Landwehr is not a technical fighter and often leaves himself open.

Ige opened at -224, currently -245; Landwehr opened at +195, currently +213.
"You got to take Danny."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Daniel Levi picks Dan Ige, citing Ige's crisp boxing and power, and noting that Nate Landwehr has poor striking defense and gets chinned in almost every fight. He references that Korean Zombie said Ige was the hardest hitter he ever fought. He believes Ige will knock Landwehr out, especially given Landwehr's tendency to get tagged up early. He mentions that if Landwehr survives the early onslaught, he could take over late, but he sees Ige as the cleaner, more experienced fighter.

"I see an igeko here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (fight day)
Dan Ige

James picks Dan Ige to win, either by knockout in round one or by decision. He believes Ige is a level above Landwehr in MMA, with sharper boxing and heavier hands. Landwehr is a brawler who gets hit often and has been knocked out before. James thinks Ige's veteran savvy will prevent him from being dragged into a wild war, and that Ige will land the cleaner, more damaging shots. He notes Ige is four years younger and has faced better competition.

"I think ige just a level above in MMA man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Ige's tight boxing and counter-striking should exploit Landwehr's wild aggression. Landwehr has durability concerns and has been knocked out before. Ige's power and accuracy should find a finish, likely in the second round. Landwehr could win if he overwhelms Ige with output and takedowns, but Ige's well-rounded game gives him the edge.

Ige wins by KO (round 2)
"I think he eventually finds a knockout in this fight give me Dan ige by knockout round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Paul picks Dan Ige, emphasizing Ige's endless cardio, speed, and experience against elite competition. He notes that Landwehr's wild brawling style leaves him open, and Ige's quick hand speed and combinations will clip him. He believes Landwehr's takedown threat is minimal because Landwehr prefers to stand and brawl. He expects Ige to win by decision or knockout, but his gut says knockout.

"I feel like ige is just way too fast stay to the outside better cardio Clips him at some point puts him over"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige despite being a fan of Nate Landwehr, citing Ige's knockout power and Landwehr's tendency to get hit with his chin up. He notes Ige has finished fighters like Damon Jackson and Gavin Tucker, while Landwehr has been caught before. He predicts a late first-round KO for Ige, though he hopes Landwehr wins.

prediction of late first round KO
"I am gonna have to go with Danny gay here over Nate lambware"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Zane picks Ige, noting that Landwehr's style is to build momentum without a foundation, which can be exploited by a disciplined fighter like Ige. He believes Ige will have many opportunities to counter Landwehr's wild attacks and that Ige's takedowns will be effective. He also notes that Landwehr is not as fast as Ige.

"I think he's just going to have a lot of opportunities in the middle of, of Nick land where trying to have a very fun, wild, cool brawl."
WIN vs Austin Lingo
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:11 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Landwehr 0 64 of 153 41% 68 of 160 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:24
Austin Lingo 0 48 of 146 32% 50 of 148 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Landwehr 0 34 of 78 43% 34 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Austin Lingo 0 30 of 91 32% 31 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nate Landwehr 0 30 of 75 40% 34 of 82 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:24
Austin Lingo 0 18 of 55 32% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Landwehr 64 of 153 41% 36 of 104 9 of 25 19 of 24 61 of 148 0 of 1 3 of 4
Austin Lingo 48 of 146 32% 28 of 116 17 of 26 3 of 4 48 of 146 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Landwehr 34 of 78 43% 20 of 52 2 of 9 12 of 17 34 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Austin Lingo 30 of 91 32% 19 of 75 8 of 12 3 of 4 30 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nate Landwehr 30 of 75 40% 16 of 52 7 of 16 7 of 7 27 of 70 0 of 1 3 of 4
Austin Lingo 18 of 55 32% 9 of 41 9 of 14 0 of 0 18 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Angelo picks Landwehr but is hesitant, citing concerns about Lingo's short-notice weight cut. He notes that Landwehr is high-pressure and gritty, but that Lingo hits hard and has good takedown defense. He thinks Landwehr's pace and grappling will be key, but acknowledges Lingo is much better than the odds suggest. He says he is not betting on this fight because the odds are unappealing.

"Nate's gonna be the pick but not touching it don't like these odds Austin lingo is much much better than what these odds are saying."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Big Brady picks Nate Landwehr by submission, noting that Landwehr has a sneaky submission game and can mix in takedowns. He acknowledges Lingo's power and early danger but believes Landwehr's cardio and pressure will break Lingo as the fight goes on. Brady points out that Lingo has been taken down easily on the regional scene and expects Landwehr to capitalize late, predicting a third-round submission.

Landwehr by submission in round 3
"I'll say Nate land where third round sub but yeah this fight's going to be very very fun"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Cody picks Landwehr despite the -225 price, citing his relentless pressure, cardio, and ability to break opponents. He notes Landwehr is a slow starter but comes on strong, and that Lingo is a one-dimensional boxer with no takedown defense. He acknowledges the risk of Landwehr getting KO'd due to his reckless style but believes Lingo won't get a quick finish. He expects Landwehr to back Lingo up and break him down.

Landwehr wins inside distance; over 2.5 rounds
"I like betting him because I know that he's either going to win me some money or he's going to die trying"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Connor picks Landwehr despite acknowledging Lingo has a puncher's chance. He notes Landwehr is a better athlete and super tough, but his brawling style will give Lingo opportunities. He thinks Landwehr's physicality and willingness to brawl will allow him to push Lingo to the cage and slow him down.

Mentions odds: Lingo opened +250, currently +184; Landwehr opened -300, currently -230. Notes the line is getting closer.
"I'm still going to pick him. He's a better athlete. He's super duper tough."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Jacob picks Landwehr but is not confident, noting that Landwehr is the better fighter but often fights recklessly for entertainment. He points out that Landwehr almost got knocked out in his last fight and that Lingo is dangerous. He says the fight is a coin flip if Landwehr chooses to stand and trade. He might throw a small bet on Lingo as an underdog depending on weigh-ins.

May bet on Austin Lingo as underdog (conditional)
"Nate's a better fighter but he's shown I'm willing to not be the better fighter you know and lose a fight to be entertaining."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Austin Lingo

The host is surprised to see Lingo as such a big underdog, believing his boxing style is perfect to counter Landwehr's wild striking. He thinks Lingo's power and countering opportunities will lead to a knockout. He notes Lingo trains at Fortis MMA and has good durability. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and Lingo by knockout.

fight doesn't go to decision, Austin Lingo by knockout
"I think that lingo's boxing style is going to be perfect for him here to stay safe when he crashes the pocket against landwear"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

The Guru picks Landwehr, praising his toughness and clinch work. He notes that Lingo's finishing ability has dropped against better competition, while Landwehr has beaten solid fighters like Elkins and Klein. He predicts a late finish or decision win for Landwehr.

"I'm going with Nate Landwehr... I think he will break Austin lingo as the fight goes on especially in the clinch"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Zane picks Landwehr because Lingo has thrived against opponents who didn't want to brawl, but Landwehr will meet him head-on with pressure. He believes Landwehr's better athleticism and willingness to be the bully will allow him to push Lingo to the cage and take away his brawling ability.

Mentions odds: Lingo +184, Landwehr -230. Notes the line is getting closer.
"Landwehr is much more likely to just meet lingo head on with pressure for pressure and being the better athlete. I think that's much more likely to allow him to push lingo to the cage and slow him down."
WIN vs David Onama
Decision (majority) (28–28, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Landwehr 0 91 of 185 49% 133 of 253 3 of 4 75% 2 1 5:05
David Onama 1 71 of 174 40% 79 of 186 1 of 6 16% 0 1 1:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Landwehr 0 21 of 52 40% 29 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:31
David Onama 1 46 of 91 50% 53 of 101 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:43
2 Nate Landwehr 0 43 of 76 56% 65 of 116 3 of 3 100% 2 0 3:08
David Onama 0 8 of 21 38% 9 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:20
3 Nate Landwehr 0 27 of 57 47% 39 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:26
David Onama 0 17 of 62 27% 17 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Landwehr 91 of 185 49% 73 of 154 10 of 18 8 of 13 52 of 120 22 of 35 17 of 30
David Onama 71 of 174 40% 62 of 158 8 of 15 1 of 1 50 of 139 1 of 3 20 of 32
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Landwehr 21 of 52 40% 13 of 38 4 of 6 4 of 8 14 of 43 4 of 6 3 of 3
David Onama 46 of 91 50% 39 of 80 6 of 10 1 of 1 29 of 64 1 of 3 16 of 24
2 Nate Landwehr 43 of 76 56% 35 of 66 4 of 6 4 of 4 22 of 37 7 of 12 14 of 27
David Onama 8 of 21 38% 7 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 18 0 of 0 2 of 3
3 Nate Landwehr 27 of 57 47% 25 of 50 2 of 6 0 of 1 16 of 40 11 of 17 0 of 0
David Onama 17 of 62 27% 16 of 59 1 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 57 0 of 0 2 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
David Onama

Angelo picks David Onama due to his power and technical striking. He notes Landwehr is a live underdog with forward pressure but if Onama gets room, he will get the knockout. Onama is also a knockout kings pick.

Will use in Monkey Knife Fight knockout kings
"i've got to go with onama here because of his power and it's it's just so next level and i think he's going to be more technical as well"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
David Onama

Big Brady picks David Onama to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Onama has a 100% finish rate and is the more dangerous striker with more power. Landwehr has good takedown defense (87%) but is hittable and has been knocked out twice in the UFC. Brady expects a stand-up war where Onama lands the bigger shots and finishes Landwehr.

first round knockout
"i like david and i'm gonna win this fight should be very exciting for as long as it lasts"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
David Onama

Cody picks David Onama, acknowledging his bias for Landwehr but reasoning that Onama's power and athleticism will catch Landwehr coming forward. He notes Landwehr's durability issues and that Onama is getting more comfortable in the UFC. Cody believes Onama will clip Landwehr at some point.

"i think that at some point he's going to clip nate landwear that's going to be pushing forward so nate landwear plus money always live underdog i just think durability is going to catch him in the ass here and …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel Levi picks Nate Landwehr as a plus-265 underdog, acknowledging the risk of Onama's African power and raw talent. He believes Landwehr can win if he fights disciplined with his hands up, uses his experience, and drags Onama into deep waters. Levi notes that Onama is still green and that Landwehr showed improved technique in his last fight. However, he admits Landwehr could get knocked out early.

"I'm willing to take a shot on these plus 265 odds and see what happens."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)
Nate Landwehr

The host picks Landwehr as the biggest upset on the card based on odds. He notes Landwehr's takedowns, control time, and output, and believes he can pull it off at +290. He also mentions that Landwehr in front of a full crowd is very live.

"i think it's gonna be nate the train i think nathan terrain pulls it off at plus 290"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
David Onama

Paul picks David Onama by TKO, citing Onama's power and reach advantage. He notes that Landwehr has been finished in the first round twice and tends to run into strikes. Paul likes Onama by TKO at +175 as a way to avoid the -315 moneyline.

Onama by TKO +175
"onama by tko plus 175. i see out there don't mind that to be perfectly honest"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
David Onama

The host picks David Onama by first-round TKO, comparing the fight to Onama's win over Gabriel Benítez. He notes Landwehr's tendency to get hit early and lack of head movement, and believes Onama's crisp shots will land. He initially had high confidence but lowered it after considering Landwehr's crowd energy, though he still picks Onama.

first round TKO
"i'm going to be going with david onama by tko in the first"
Submission (anaconda choke) R3 2:22 · UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · Oct 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Landwehr 0 71 of 130 54% 103 of 163 1 of 2 50% 2 0 3:46
Ľudovít Klein 0 42 of 85 49% 44 of 87 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Landwehr 0 20 of 41 48% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Ľudovít Klein 0 19 of 37 51% 19 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
2 Nate Landwehr 0 37 of 61 60% 61 of 86 0 of 1 0% 1 0 2:32
Ľudovít Klein 0 13 of 31 41% 15 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
3 Nate Landwehr 0 14 of 28 50% 18 of 32 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:32
Ľudovít Klein 0 10 of 17 58% 10 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Landwehr 71 of 130 54% 41 of 85 18 of 30 12 of 15 45 of 93 26 of 37 0 of 0
Ľudovít Klein 42 of 85 49% 20 of 55 18 of 25 4 of 5 39 of 80 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Landwehr 20 of 41 48% 5 of 20 10 of 15 5 of 6 14 of 32 6 of 9 0 of 0
Ľudovít Klein 19 of 37 51% 6 of 20 11 of 14 2 of 3 18 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Nate Landwehr 37 of 61 60% 30 of 49 5 of 10 2 of 2 17 of 33 20 of 28 0 of 0
Ľudovít Klein 13 of 31 41% 9 of 24 3 of 6 1 of 1 11 of 27 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Nate Landwehr 14 of 28 50% 6 of 16 3 of 5 5 of 7 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ľudovít Klein 10 of 17 58% 5 of 11 4 of 5 1 of 1 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Angelo is confident Klein wins, likely by stoppage. He praises Klein's phenomenal striking, footwork, and smooth movement, which will allow him to dance around Landwehr's wild pressure. Landwehr is feast-or-famine and puts himself in harm's way. Klein also showed new wrestling elements in his last fight. Angelo thinks Klein's footwork and clean striking will lead to a finish, though he acknowledges Landwehr's chaos could cause an upset.

Klein wins by stoppage, less less on monkey knife fight
"I think ludovic klein is going to get a stoppage here at some point and it's literally going to be his footwork and just how smooth his movements are to make that happen"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Big Brady is confident Klein wins by knockout, likely a head kick, given Landwehr's poor striking defense and history of being knocked out. He notes Klein has multiple head kick KOs on his record and Landwehr is hittable and reckless. He sees no clear path to victory for Landwehr.

by KO (head kick)
"i like klein here i like him quite a bit i like him to win um by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Cody picks Landwehr as a dog, acknowledging his durability issues but believing his pressure and cardio will overwhelm Klein if he survives the first round. He notes that Klein faded in his last fight against Trizano and that Landwehr's all-action style and track record of pushing a pace make him live as an underdog. He plans to use it as a PRP shot at the bottom of parlays.

"i'm gonna take nate landry for the underdog"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Daniel picks Klein to win early, citing his dangerous high kick and first-round explosiveness. He worries about Klein's cardio if the fight goes past the first round, as seen in the Mike Trizano fight. Landwehr gets hit a lot (8 strikes per minute), which is a recipe for disaster against a sharp striker like Klein. However, if Klein doesn't finish early, Landwehr's toughness and deep-water experience could make it interesting.

If Klein doesn't finish early, live bet Landwehr
"i think that ludovic klein probably comes out here and catches him early"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Klein is a precise, powerful striker who will land a fight-ending shot on Landwehr, whose chin is deteriorating. Landwehr has poor striking defense and has been knocked out recently. Klein by KO is the most likely outcome, likely in the first two rounds.

Klein by KO -105, Klein in round 1, under 2.5 rounds -145
"i do think he flatlines land where at a certain point in this fight so my thing is going to be uh klein i've already parlayed him he's already part of my lock that i play i think he goes …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 13, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses both fighters' strengths and weaknesses but does not state a definitive choice.

TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

The MMA Guru picks Ľudovít Klein by first-round KO, citing Landwehr's recent chin issues and tendency to get knocked down by any shot. He notes Klein's head-kick KOs and fast starts, predicting a head kick to combination finish. He acknowledges Landwehr's past success but attributes recent losses to a deteriorating chin.

first round ko, head kick to combination punch finish
"i'm gonna go with ludovic klein by first round ko here over nate lambwear"
Expert Picks (1)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel Levi praises Nate Landwehr's toughness, iron chin, and ability to survive bad positions, noting his M-1 Global championship run in Russia. He contrasts that with Julian Erosa's durability issues, having been knocked out five times. Levi thinks Landwehr will be more threatened by Erosa's length than he was by Darren Elkins, but still expects Landwehr's durability to be the deciding factor. He sees value in Landwehr at pick'em odds and predicts a win, possibly by decision.

"i'm going nate landwear and i do think that there's some value at the pick and prize shack"