Career Averages - Petr Yan
Career Averages - Douglas Silva de Andrade
Petr Yan - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 134 of 383 | 34% | 196 of 458 | 2 of 29 | 6% | 2 | 1 | 5:12 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 139 of 230 | 60% | 159 of 251 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 22 of 68 | 32% | 40 of 87 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 23 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 19 of 73 | 26% | 41 of 97 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:06 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 21 of 34 | 61% | 25 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 21 of 62 | 33% | 32 of 77 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 25 of 46 | 54% | 33 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 4 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 37 of 71 | 52% | 43 of 80 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 40 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 | |
| 5 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 35 of 109 | 32% | 40 of 117 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 38 of 63 | 60% | 38 of 63 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 134 of 383 | 34% | 105 of 341 | 22 of 34 | 7 of 8 | 116 of 353 | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 139 of 230 | 60% | 109 of 195 | 17 of 19 | 13 of 16 | 119 of 204 | 18 of 24 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 22 of 68 | 32% | 16 of 60 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 63 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 17 of 32 | 53% | 15 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 19 of 73 | 26% | 19 of 71 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 69 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 21 of 34 | 61% | 18 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 21 of 62 | 33% | 18 of 57 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 52 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 25 of 46 | 54% | 20 of 40 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 34 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 | |
| 4 | Merab Dvalishvili | 37 of 71 | 52% | 28 of 60 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 34 of 67 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 38 of 55 | 69% | 28 of 44 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 32 of 48 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Merab Dvalishvili | 35 of 109 | 32% | 24 of 93 | 8 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 32 of 102 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 38 of 63 | 60% | 28 of 50 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 8 | 33 of 57 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, emphasizing his insane pace, cardio, and improvement since the first fight. He questions what has changed for Petr Yan to win the rematch, noting that Merab dominated the first fight with 11 takedowns. He believes Merab's pressure and takedowns will be too much for Yan again, and he is surprised the odds are only -450.
Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili, noting his dominant performance in the first fight. He acknowledges Yan may have been compromised but still favors Dvalishvili's wrestling and pace. He expects Dvalishvili to win by decision, as he always does.
Cody is fully behind Merab, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He notes that Merab took Yan down 11 times in their first fight and has since dominated Olympic gold medalist Cejudo and Umar. He believes Merab will again win by decision, as Yan is durable and hard to finish. He mentions the decision prop at minus 300 but prefers the money line.
Connor argues that Merab has only improved since their first fight, becoming a more purposeful striker who uses takedown threats effectively. He notes that Petr Yan has lost the aggressive instinct that once allowed him to change fights with single shots, and now fights more cautiously, which plays into Merab's relentless pace. Connor believes Yan's multi-stage game can be disrupted by Merab's constant pressure, making it hard for Yan to build initiative. He concludes that while Yan has the power to win, it's a lot to gamble on.
Daniel believes Merab's relentless pace and takedown volume will overwhelm Petr Yan, who tends to take rounds off to make reads. He notes Merab's improvements since their first fight, including 20 takedowns against Cory Sandhagen. Daniel doubts Yan can bridge the output gap and sees Merab as the clear best bantamweight. He mentions the fight is a pass for betting due to poor odds on Merab.
Lucrative James acknowledges Merab's dominance but believes the betting line of -450 is too wide. He notes Petr Yan was likely injured in the first fight and has had time to recover. He thinks Yan can compete in minutes and moments, potentially squeaking out a decision win. He emphasizes value betting and picks Yan at +350 odds.
The host notes that Dvalishvili won the first fight easily as a +250 underdog and is now a -450 favorite for good reason. He expects Yan to be more aggressive but believes Dvalishvili's pace, pressure, and activity will make it hard for Yan to land impactful shots, leading to a decision win for Dvalishvili.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Merab's wrestling and decision victory. He points out that Yan has lost rounds to lesser fighters like Song Dong and Marcus McGhee, while Merab has only improved. He notes that Yan is a slow starter and Merab's pressure negates his striking combinations. He concludes that Merab by decision is the play.
The Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili over Petr Yan, despite the wide odds. He notes Merab's relentless takedown volume and cardio will overwhelm Yan, though Yan will have moments. The Guru predicts a 48-47 decision for Merab.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Merab's style heavily favors him. He points out that Yan's game relies on building initiative through counter-punching and then pressuring, but Merab never allows that foothold. Zane notes that even when Yan defends takedowns well, Merab's constant attacks prevent Yan from establishing his own offense. He highlights that Yan's last three fights show a loss of confidence and aggression, making it unlikely he can replicate the moments of violence that defined his prime.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 0 | 81 of 146 | 55% | 130 of 202 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:11 |
| Marcus McGhee | 0 | 64 of 170 | 37% | 66 of 173 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petr Yan | 0 | 22 of 43 | 51% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marcus McGhee | 0 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 23 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Petr Yan | 0 | 33 of 64 | 51% | 37 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marcus McGhee | 0 | 34 of 93 | 36% | 35 of 94 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 3 | Petr Yan | 0 | 26 of 39 | 66% | 69 of 88 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:11 |
| Marcus McGhee | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 8 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 81 of 146 | 55% | 63 of 122 | 10 of 12 | 8 of 12 | 58 of 114 | 23 of 32 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcus McGhee | 64 of 170 | 37% | 44 of 128 | 8 of 18 | 12 of 24 | 62 of 165 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petr Yan | 22 of 43 | 51% | 14 of 31 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 8 | 15 of 33 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcus McGhee | 22 of 55 | 40% | 15 of 41 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 9 | 20 of 52 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Petr Yan | 33 of 64 | 51% | 28 of 58 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 54 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcus McGhee | 34 of 93 | 36% | 25 of 72 | 5 of 12 | 4 of 9 | 34 of 91 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Petr Yan | 26 of 39 | 66% | 21 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 27 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcus McGhee | 8 of 22 | 36% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Yan (-375); McGhee (+275)
Round 1
After years of hovering around top-five matchups, Yan (18-5, 10-4 UFC) gets a much-needed layup in the form of rising talent McGhee (10-1, 4-0 UFC). The MMA Lab product introduced himself to the organization in 2023, and has since rattled off three stoppages and a decision victory over Jonathan Martinez to reach this place in line. The sole arbiter of the bout will be referee Dan Movahedi, who tells the bantamweights it’s time to fight. They fight, but not before bumping fists.
Yan moves straight to the center of the Octagon, where he operates out of range from the kicks of McGhee. Yan keeps his lead hand outstretched to help him parry oncoming fire, so McGhee kicks him in the calf and then the ribs. McGhee tries to crash forward to throw hands, and Yan brushes him aside and keeps himself positioned directly in front of McGhee. Yan crisply counters a body kick with an overhand right, and he blocks a right hand coming back his way. McGhee connects partially over the top, but Yan shrugs it off and hits him back three times. They come together, and Yan knocks him back with a left hand and then kicks his leg out from beneath him. McGhee springs back up, and Yan goes back to hammering the front leg. His check left hook wobbles “The Maniac,” who has to jog to the side to get his legs back. From there, McGhee steps in with a knee to the body. Yan smacks his front leg in response.
McGhee tries to crowd his man, but Yan is able to duck and move, all while looking for a counter. McGhee secures a body kick without taking anything back, and he zips out of the way of danger and plants three punches on the Russian’s mug. He chains a few more behind it, and he circles back and away to draw Yan in. McGhee kicks the front calf and starts trading in a clinch, with both men shooting off uppercuts in a 135-pound trade exchange reminiscent of Don Frye’s magical battle in Pride. Yan takes punches and gives them back hard, including an uppercut that just brushes past the hair. McGhee lands a few shots, gets kicked in response, and he tags Yan and appears to buckle his legs for a moment. McGhee lets Yan recover, kicking at him before the one-minute break.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Round 2
Fans cheer and chant for Yan as soon as the round begins, and he takes their energy and channels it into a crisp right hand on the jaw. Yan overswings his way in, and McGhee ducks and shoots in for a takedown. The Russian shuts down the effort and misses two looping hooks by a matter of inches. McGhee wings a left hook at him that pounds into the guard, and they knock one another back with single power punches. McGhee cracks Yan again with a one-two, and he puts two more on the chin and then kicks the front leg. McGhee connects with a solid uppercut that splits the guard, and his low kick on the way out disrupts Yan from countering. They clash their heads together coming in, and Yan winds up with everything he has and smashes his right fist into McGhee’s jaw. The rising talent stumbles, and Yan measures him and blasts him with a number of left hands that rip open a cut on McGhee’s eyebrow. McGhee is unafraid to stand and bang, firing back at Yan and even catching him with an uppercut.
Yan shrugs the strikes off so he can unload a right hand on the chin, and he slips a strike and rips a left hand over the top. McGhee digs a right to the body and Yan knocks him back with a right and a left upstairs. McGhee is tough but getting outpowered at this point, and Yan thinks about mixing things up with his trip try. McGhee loops punches around the guard, but Yan’s are far more impactful, including a jab that knocks McGhee back several steps. McGhee strides forward to put a knee on the chin, and Yan strings together punches up top that lead to body shots in an effective combination. The jab of Yan is tripled before he fires off power punches, and his combinations are in full effect, like a knee into a right hand and then a low kick. McGhee tags the former champ with a clean one-two, and Yan takes a second and then comes back firing. McGhee tries a wheel kick, but Yan is much too close and reaches him with his fists when McGhee turns. The horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Round 3
Supporting chants for Yan echo through the Etihad Arena, and he knows it and is excited by it. Rushing out of his corner to engage in the final frame, he gets in front of McGhee and is about to start banging. McGhee backs him away with low kicks and jabs, including one where he nearly kicks the Russian’s leg out, but Yan recovers and stands him up with a powerful left hand on the temple. Yan lets McGhee duck down so he can time uppercuts on him, and he shucks McGhee aside on a second attempt to elbow him with impunity. Yan checks a kick and rattles off a combination to the body, with McGhee rebounding off the cage wall to recover. Yan lands a low kick, and then checks one coming back. McGhee’s flying knee fails, as Yan watches it miss him, and Yan counters with a double-leg entry. McGhee turns, so Yan grips him from behind and knees him in the back of the thigh. Yan imposes his weight on McGhee from behind, and Movahedi asks for them for more than holding on.
Movahedi calls for the bantamweights to do more a second time, and Yan answers his call by kneeing McGhee repeatedly to the thigh and wrapped up around the guard to the head. Yan wrenches McGhee down to the floor, and McGee muscles his way to his feet and still has Yan’s hands clasped around his waist. Yan grinds and beats on the thighs of his foe, with the action less-than-thrilling but effective in peeling time off the clock. McGhee turns to put his back against the fencing, and Yan is warned for striking to the back of his head when McGhee tries to take the fight down. They split up, and Yan boots him in the face with his shin. The patented Yan trip results in him hurling McGhee to the mat, and he isolates an arm to grip a kimura. McGhee explodes to his knees and then to the wall, leaning on it as the match concludes. The two men are fired up and hug it out after 15 minutes of combat.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)
The Official Result
Petr Yan def. Marcus McGhee via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Petr Yan, citing his phenomenal striking, underrated wrestling, and experience. He notes Marcus McGhee is powerful and well-rounded but had his legs chewed up in his last fight, and Yan has great kicks. He feels Yan's body of work and youth give him the edge, though he calls the fight a potential trap.
Big Brady picks Petr Yan, calling the matchup a huge step down for Yan. He notes Yan has beaten top competition while McGhee's wins are over unranked fighters. He believes Yan's striking and experience will be too much, and predicts a decision win.
Connor acknowledges McGhee's potential if he pressures Yan, but notes McGhee's tentativeness in the Martinez fight and his tendency to start slow. He believes Yan's counter-punching and ability to fight off the back foot will be too much, especially over three rounds. He also highlights Yan's takedown threat as a factor.
Yan has issues in three-round fights due to his slow start, but he should turn the tide around the midpoint of the second round and pull away in deep water. The host would think twice about paying the chalk on Yan because of his slow starting nature.
The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan, noting the five-round fight favors Yan's experience and cardio. He acknowledges Marcus McGhee's skills but believes Yan is a different level, citing Yan's wins over Aldo and others. He predicts Yan loses the first round but wins the second and third, possibly with a 10-8 third round or a finish, resulting in a 29-28 decision.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that McGhee's best path is to pressure Yan early, but his recent fight against Martinez showed he can be hesitant. He believes Yan's combination punching and experience will prevail, and that McGhee's handsy defense will leave openings for Yan's counters.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 0 | 121 of 193 | 62% | 190 of 263 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 3:21 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 53 of 119 | 44% | 53 of 119 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petr Yan | 0 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 42 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:21 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 | |
| 2 | Petr Yan | 0 | 32 of 49 | 65% | 32 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 10 of 30 | 33% | 10 of 30 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Petr Yan | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 28 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 13 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 4 | Petr Yan | 0 | 25 of 40 | 62% | 50 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 5 | Petr Yan | 0 | 37 of 62 | 59% | 38 of 63 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 121 of 193 | 62% | 78 of 142 | 18 of 21 | 25 of 30 | 103 of 172 | 13 of 15 | 5 of 6 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 53 of 119 | 44% | 23 of 75 | 24 of 36 | 6 of 8 | 49 of 112 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petr Yan | 6 of 6 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Petr Yan | 32 of 49 | 65% | 12 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 17 | 31 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 10 of 30 | 33% | 6 of 21 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Petr Yan | 21 of 36 | 58% | 16 of 28 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 18 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 13 of 25 | 52% | 4 of 15 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Petr Yan | 25 of 40 | 62% | 19 of 33 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 21 of 35 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 14 of 30 | 46% | 4 of 15 | 8 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 26 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Petr Yan | 37 of 62 | 59% | 26 of 50 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 32 of 56 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 15 of 33 | 45% | 9 of 24 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
A big one at 135 pounds wraps up this fight card, with a possible title challenger emerging depending on the result. Former beltholder Yan (17-5, 9-4 UFC) has struggled as of late but did right the ship in March with a decision over Yadong Song. On the other side of the cage stands ex-flyweight kingpin Figueiredo (24-3-1, 13-3-1 UFC), whose run at the new division has gone swimmingly thus far with three wins in three appearances. Whether he makes it four in the next 25 minutes or less, referee Mike Beltran and his outstanding moustache will be here for it every step of the way. As he brings them to the center of the cage to issue final instructions, the combatants eagerly bump their fists together. Yan starts aggressively, backing the Brazilian off early. Figueiredo strikes first with a body kick and shoots for a takedown, and Yan defends the double but falls victim to an inside trip takedown. Figueiredo lands in the guard, with Yan smacking him off his back. Yan tries to elevate and sweep his opponent, and Figueiredo hangs on from above when Yan turns to his knees. Figueiredo looks to keep Yan grounded, staying heavy on Yan’s back and following Yan when he rolls. Yan elbows from behind, bopping Figueiredo on the nose a few times as the bantamweights keep twisting and turning. Yan uses elbows to the thigh to break up a partial leg grip around him, and this results in Figueiredo getting both hooks in and taking the back. Figueiredo looks for a body triangle, and Yan maintains a two-on-one wrist lock so he can explode and twist around to claim top position. Yan gets off a single elbow before Figueiredo grips hold of him with all of his might, and Yan drags him to put his neck on the corner of the fence and the floor. Yan covers the Brazilian’s mouth when not driving his elbow into his face, and he postures up every so often to land a strike. Yan drills his man with a solid right hammerfist and an elbow with his other arm, forcing Figueiredo to turn to his side in an escape attempt. Figueiredo bucks and kicks, but Yan stays above him scoring a solid right hand. As Figueiredo leaps back to his feet, Yan knees him hard, and he kicks the front leg while Figueiredo circles away to end the round. 10-9 Yan.
Round 2
The bantamweights re-engage after five minutes of largely grappling, with Yan setting up punches and a head kick with a low kick. Figueiredo walks through a stomping kick to his knee to fire off his own head kick, and Yan blocks it and blasts the front leg with his shin. Figueiredo sits down on a clubbing right hand that sends Yan backpedaling, and it is one-and-done so Yan recovers without issue. Yan strikes again with a low kick, and he kicks high. Yan is warned for outstretched fingers, and he belts the Brazilian in the body with his foot. A level change from Figueiredo is easily thwarted, and Yan chops at his front leg when his foe backs off. Figueiredo absorbs a head kick, blocks a second and retaliates with one to the ribs. Yan steps in with a right hook, and he brings up a knee shield to defend a body kick. Figueiredo whizzes past his man to connect a right hand, and he spins with a wheel kick and misses the mark. A second power right from Figueiredo wobbles Yan’s legs, and he spins with a back kick that pounds into the ribcage. Yan bounces off the wall and gets his bearings, with Figueiredo not committing to anything additional. Yan kicks the lead leg and then reaches out with a left hand, and Figueiredo trips and hits the floor but climbs up without concern. A jumping switch kick from Figueiredo bounces off the guard, and he lunges in with a right hand and checks a leg kick. Yan plants a left hand on the cheek, stuffs a takedown and does it again. Two clean punches from Yan make Figueiredo blink it out, and his fingers are pointed towards his opponent and draw another warning. They clash shins together with simultaneous kicks, and Figueiredo’s hooks get his foe’s attention. Yan pays him back with an elbow up close, and his kicks pepper “Daico” on the way out. Figueiredo wraps two hooks around the guard, and Yan keeps his fist outstretched to back Figueiredo off. Yan hits a clean trip and throw, and Figueiredo throws his legs up for a triangle as the bell sounds. 10-9 Figueiredo.
Round 3
The fighters are revved up and excited to get back to hitting one another in the face, so much so that Beltran has to back them off. When they start, it takes nearly 20 seconds before they strike. Yan jabs and kicks with his front leg, and Figueiredo hammers the body with a left hand. Yan chips at the front leg, backing away to block a body kick. Both fighters switch stances time and again directly in front of one another, and Figueiredo kicks his way into a tackling double-leg takedown. Yan’s scramble allows him to grab hold of one leg, and he is able to escape before long. Yan slams home a low kick, and he connects with a short but explosive uppercut that stuns and sends Figueiredo falling to his back. Yan climbs into the guard in hopes of finishing the job, but “Deus da Guerra” is hanging tight to protect himself from further damage. Figueiredo wall-walks and shoves Yan away, and Yan walks him down and boots him in the front leg. Figueiredo switches stances immediately, and Yan kicks him in the ribs but eats a right hand up top for his handiwork. The two crash together, and the impact sounds like they clacked heads. Figueiredo breaks out of the clinch and throws a haymaker from downtown, one that does not hit the broad side of a barn. Figueiredo hunts for a step-in trip, and he hand-fights Yan who is trying to box his way in. Figueiredo connects with a body kick, and he reaches out with a right hand as Yan shakes it off. Yan times a head kick, and Figueiredo boots him in the chest right back. Figueiredo splits the guard with a one-two, and a body shot makes Yan take a second to think about things. Figueiredo closes in on him and digs several uppercuts up the middle, and he appears to find a strike that is doing some serious damage. A few more uppercuts ring Figueiredo’s bell, and Yan leaps in the air to knee Figueiredo on the chin. Figueiredo gets his mouthpiece knocked out, and Beltran has him replace it. When Figueiredo puts the gumshield back in, he looses one final combination of strikes that lead him to the horn. 10-9 Yan.
Round 4
It is championship round time, and both men still appear to have a full head of steam. Figueiredo rushes out of his corner to engage, lobbing kicks from both legs. Yan attempts a trip and throw, and he disrupts Figueiredo’s footwork to make him hit the floor. Figueiredo’s mad scramble gets him upright in seconds, and they resume from striking range. They hand-fight until Figueiredo kicks his man in the ribs. Figueiredo shoots for a double, and he leverages Yan to the wall when the first try fails. Figueiredo tries with a single, lifting Yan’s leg but not going anywhere. Yan pushes him away, and they reset. Yan times a powerful uppercut that knocks Figueiredo’s mouthpiece out, and he follows it with a head kick that is just blocked in time. Beltran waits until he has an opening to give the Brazilian back his mouthpiece, and he replaces it. Yan slaps Figueiredo in the face with his toes, and he slides back when Figueiredo bears down on him. The boxing of Yan allows him to slip a huge punch and uppercut Figueiredo cleanly, and when they are in close range, Figueiredo claims about glove grabs. Figueiredo dips down and fires off a body shot, and two punches go up top. Yan jabs and steps in with an elbow, and a piece of his tape on his thumb comes off. Figueiredo blasts the body with a ferocious left hand, and he ducks a looping strike for a takedown shot. Yan stifles the effort and just misses with a booming head kick, but he does connect with uppercuts and a flying knee when the two let loose. Figueiredo tries his own uppercut, and he blocks a head kick and comes over the top with a left. Figueiredo strides forward to unleash a right hand, and Yan goes flying. When Yan gets up, Figueiredo hurts his man in the body with follow-up strikes, and Yan steels himself and unloads a series of uppercuts until time expires. 10-9 Yan.
Round 5
Five minutes left to work, and the fighters touch ‘em up one last time. Yan hand-fights on his way into attack, and Figueiredo catches him with an uppercut. Yan tries to escape, but one left hand to the body gets his attention again. Yan attempts a big knee when Figueiredo is ducking, and it grazes off the red line on Figueiredo’s dome. Figueiredo gets clinched, eats a knee and an uppercut without landing anything before getting shoved back. Yan goes into boxer mode, pinning his punches on Figueiredo’s chin again and again. Figueiredo throws back with bad intentions, shaking his foe up with an elbow and a few mighty left hands. Figueiredo digs a kick to the body, and he watches as body kick soar past him. Figueiredo shoots, Yan sprawls and they reset. Yan steps in with a left hand, slides away and does not get tagged on the counter. Yan rifles off a left hand, and Figueiredo decides to pay him back with a clubbing right hook. Yan bounces off the fencing and absorbs a flush body shot, and he just misses with a huge uppercut. Yan spins with an elbow, and Figueiredo grins and tells him good work. Figueiredo points to the ground in what has been a gesture repeated frequently today, and Yan shrugs it off and times another spinning strike. Yan scores an elbow, and Figueiredo drives an elbow into the torso. Another elbow forces Figueiredo to back off, if only for a second, and Yan smacks him cleanly with a flying switch kick. Figueiredo boots him in the head with a question-mark kick, and he hurts the Russian with two huge right hands. Figueiredo rushes forward to attack, and both fighters duck down and crash together. Figueiredo goes hind quarters-over-tea kettle and falls off the back, and he jumps back up and walks Yan down, throwing everything he has at his opponent. Yan looks for a knee up the middle, and he belts the Brazilian’s body with his shin. Figueiredo swings hard, and he stops a takedown. Yan scores with one more left hand, and this terrific 25-minute engagement comes to a close. A few rounds were close, but one fighter appeared to outwork the other over the course of their “Fight of the Night”-worthy battle. Both men climb to the top of the cage to celebrate their handiwork, hugging it out and taking time to enjoy the crowd showering them with love. 10-9 Yan (49-46 Yan).
The thriller in the books, the victorious Yan is joined in the cage by his son, who it appears may be watching his father fight live for the very first time. Like the winner of the co-main event, Yan calls for another title shot, although he is two fights removed from the championship bout and not one like the strawweight from earlier. Even in defeat, Figueiredo is all smiles, appreciating Yan's handiwork and generally a happy camper. With that, UFC Macau is in the books, and there is no UFC next week as it is Thanksgiving week in America. Instead, PFL runs its championship event on Friday, which contains a remarkable 10 title fights. We will be there for each and every one, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Petr Yan def. Deiveson Figueiredo via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
Angelo picks Petr Yan, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He acknowledges Figueiredo's improved wrestling and cardio at bantamweight but believes Yan's five-round experience and size advantage will be key. He admits a weird feeling about Figueiredo and may not bet.
Big Brady picks Petr Yan to win by decision. He thinks it's a bad matchup for Figueiredo, who is older (36), smaller, and a low-volume striker relying on power that likely won't hurt Yan. Yan is younger, has better cardio and volume, and is durable. Brady doesn't believe Figueiredo has the wrestling to take Yan down, as even Merab was unsuccessful. He expects Yan to outwork Figueiredo over five rounds, possibly with a late finish.
Cody picks Petr Yan because of his superior cardio and volume striking over five rounds. He notes Figueiredo is a power puncher with a limited gas tank who relies on early knockdowns and takedowns, but Yan's takedown defense and endless motor will allow him to outwork Figueiredo in the later rounds. He expects Yan to win by decision and sees a live betting opportunity if Yan starts slow.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Yan because Figueiredo's cautious, low-output style and declining speed play into Yan's strengths. He notes that Yan's confidence may be shaken but Figueiredo won't pressure him early like Merab did. Connor also highlights that Figueiredo's gas tank is worse and he may be content to lose a quiet decision, which suits Yan's late-round surge.
Daniel Vreeland believes Petr Yan will win despite being a slow starter. He expects Figueiredo to have early success with calf kicks and submission attempts, but as Yan makes his reads and gets his timing down, he will take over. Vreeland notes Yan's superior boxing and timing-based takedowns, and thinks Yan can either finish late or win a decision. He is confident Yan dictates the pace and pulls away.
James picks Petr Yan to win but is hesitant due to the -300 price tag, which he considers too wide. He acknowledges Yan's superior striking volume and five-round experience, but notes Figueiredo's one-punch power and athleticism could cause an upset. He believes the fight is likely a 48-47 decision for Yan, but may take a small position on Figueiredo based on value.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Figueiredo would be a live dog in a three-round fight but cannot maintain the pace over five rounds. He highlights Yan's endless gas tank and the fact that Figueiredo cannot replicate Merab's takedown volume. Paul thinks Yan wins on volume and suggests a live bet if Yan starts slow, but warns the line may move quickly.
The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan over Deiveson Figueiredo, emphasizing the five-round advantage. He argues Figueiredo is explosive early but fades, while Yan's cardio and boxing improve as the fight goes on. He predicts Yan will weather early storms, then take over in later rounds with takedowns and ground and pound, finishing Figueiredo in round four or five. He compares it to Yan's fight against Jose Aldo. He notes Figueiredo's wins over Cody Garbrandt, Rob Font, and Marlon Vera but believes Yan's boxing is crisper than Moreno's.
Zane picks Petr Yan, arguing that Yan's process-oriented fighting style, which builds through rounds, will overcome Figueiredo's declining speed and output. He notes that Figueiredo has lost some speed and relies on strength and caution, but Yan's ability to adapt and pressure late in fights gives him the edge. Zane also mentions that Yan's confidence issues stem from the Merab fight, but Figueiredo's style won't exploit that as effectively.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 0 | 99 of 183 | 54% | 129 of 217 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 86 of 172 | 50% | 104 of 192 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petr Yan | 0 | 22 of 35 | 62% | 23 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 20 of 37 | 54% | 22 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | |
| 2 | Petr Yan | 0 | 41 of 77 | 53% | 61 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 31 of 66 | 46% | 40 of 75 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 | |
| 3 | Petr Yan | 0 | 36 of 71 | 50% | 45 of 83 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Song Yadong | 0 | 35 of 69 | 50% | 42 of 77 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 99 of 183 | 54% | 68 of 142 | 22 of 31 | 9 of 10 | 86 of 170 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 9 |
| Song Yadong | 86 of 172 | 50% | 71 of 147 | 9 of 15 | 6 of 10 | 79 of 164 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petr Yan | 22 of 35 | 62% | 9 of 19 | 6 of 8 | 7 of 8 | 22 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Song Yadong | 20 of 37 | 54% | 15 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Petr Yan | 41 of 77 | 53% | 31 of 62 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 35 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
| Song Yadong | 31 of 66 | 46% | 26 of 56 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 28 of 63 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Petr Yan | 36 of 71 | 50% | 28 of 61 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 29 of 64 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
| Song Yadong | 35 of 69 | 50% | 30 of 61 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 34 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Yan (-115), Song (-105)
Round 1
His back against the wall, former bantamweight champ Yan (16-5, 8-4 UFC) has lost four of his last five after charging into the UFC to win seven straight. On the other side of the cage, Team Alpha Male’s Song (21-7-1, 1 NC; 10-2-1 UFC) has plenty of momentum on his side, winner of four of five to get himself a ranking next to his name. While not as big as the main event, there will be waves made from this bantamweight bout. It begins with referee Keith Peterson checking the fighters in, and they clap hands first. There will be no nonsense going forward. Song leads off with a low kick, and Yan throws one back only to get countered with a check left hook. Song comes up short with a low kick, and he fakes with a takedown that makes Yan oversell to try to stop it. Yan comes out firing with an overhand right, and Song eats it like a bowl of hot and numbing beef. Song wings a left hand that gets Yan’s attention, and he tries to launch it again but comes up just short. They engage in a stalemate when standing in front of one another, and Song hops out of the way and leaps forward with a left hand. Song doubles up on a jab and whips a right hand over the top, and Yan bends him over with a body shot. Song attacks with a combination, and Yan defends the worst of the blows and is ready to trade back, only to find his enemy is not to be found. Song counters a leg kick with a huge overhand right, and they both dip down at the same time but do not engage. Song tags him with a left hook, and he walks through a punch to land a sharp jab of his own. They both duck down at the same time again, and they nearly bounce heads. Song catches a leg kick and bangs his right hand into the temple, sending Yan down to the mat. Song follow him and tries to keep him down, but Yan scrambles wildly to work his way up to his feet. Yan tries to roll through to nearly escape and find himself in better position, but Song hangs on to stay on Yan from behind. Song lands a few right hands until Yan fights to his feet with 30 seconds to spare. Yan sneaks in a right hand and ducks a massive overhand right, and he bites on a faked takedown and awkwardly attacks his own. The round ends before a takedown is landed on either side.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song
Round 2
They bump fists before getting started, and Song says hello with a body kick. Yan races ahead, only to walk partially into an elbow. Song swings a left hook and shoots, and when Yan stands him up, Song elects to score several right hands before shoving the Russian to the wall. Song nails his man with an elbow, and Yan breaks off and ducks into an uppercut when trying to defend a takedown. Song eats an uppercut when shooting, and when he tries again, he takes another uppercut to the same spot. Yan sits down on his punches when Song walks him down, and he looks to defend a takedown and gets grabbed from behind. Song sticks out several jabs when breaking free, and he ducks square into an uppercut. Peterson calls time to remove some tape from Yan’s glove, and they cut it and move on. Yan restarts and aims two body shots, and he stops a takedown by tackling Song over. Song shrugs at him, and he takes a right hand for his effort. Song jabs, and he snatches up a single and lifts it in the air. Yan miraculously keeps his balance and drags his leg back, and he snaps out multiple jabs. The crowd starts chanting “let’s go Petr” as if the Miami fans had forgotten he is Russian, and Song takes energy from it and surges ahead. Yan beats him to the punch and aims shots to the body, and Song throws hands too hard and takes a clean uppercut. Yan digs a right to the body and leans back to avoid the big strike from his opponent, and he crashes forward to hit a clean takedown and plant Song on his back. Yan works the body and head as soon as they hit the ground, and he cuts Song open with elbows. The round ends as blood leans from above Song’s left eyebrow.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Round 3
The bantamweights meet in the center of the Octagon, and Yan swings a huge right hand that Song barely ducks. Song counters with a spinning kick that glances off the guard, and he gets his jab going. Yan aims an uppercut and shoots down for the ankle, and he spins around and works to his feet when he does not get Song down. Yan stings his opponent with a right and spins with a back kick, and Song doubles up on a jab and gets smacked in the head with a spinning wheel kick. Song is tough as nail, and he rushes forward to trade hands and surprises Yan with a right hand. Song goes after a single, and Yan bounces off and throws hard at his opponent. Song gets knocked to his hands, and he rebounds and eats a body shot in the midst of a combination. Yan aims a one-two to the body, and he shoulder rolls to avoid the counter. Song desperately pursues a takedown, and Yan crawls away. Song connects a left on the side of the head, and he gather his thoughts and spins with a back fist. Blood leaks down both of Song’s eyes, with cuts all over, and he completely ignores it so he can trade with his opponent. Yan beans him with a spinning back fist, and Song stands right in front of him and scores a heavy right hand back. Song takes a left hand on the jaw and gets shoved back to the fence, and he elbows Song and pursues a double. Yan turns the corner and plants Song on his seat with a minute to spare, and he sits in half guard and starts shellacking Song with elbows and punches. Yan gets dragged back to guard while striking, and he flows over to the side and elbows Song once for good measure. Song rolls to his stomach, and Yan holds him down with a brabo choke until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Yan (29-28 Yan)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Yan (29-28 Yan)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Yan (29-28 Yan)
The Official Result
Petr Yan def. Yadong Song via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Song Yadong, feeling a changing of the guard. He notes Song hits hard, is fast, and can make the fight ugly, which is how you beat Yan. However, he acknowledges Yan is still very good and this is a tough test. He won't bet on it because it's too close.
Big Brady picks Petr Yan to win by decision, but has low confidence. He notes that Yan has lost four of his last five, but those losses were to top competition. He believes Yan's boxing and volume will edge out Song, who has more power but is less proven. He thinks the fight is razor thin and could go either way.
Cody is concerned about Yan's slow starts and poor decision-making in recent fights. He thinks Song's takedown defense, volume, and durability make him a live underdog, especially in a three-round fight where Yan's slow starts could cost him.
Daniel picks Yan to get back in the win column, but it's a lean. He believes Yan is not washed and has looked good in recent losses to elite competition. He notes Yan's takedown ability and diverse striking, but warns that Song is a massive bantamweight with heavy hands and can crack in the pocket. Daniel expects a competitive three-round war and thinks Yan's experience and technique will prevail, but acknowledges Song could knock him out.
Daniel Vreeland also picks Song Yadong, emphasizing how Petr Yan has been losing. He notes that Yan's losses are to top competition but points to the Merab Dvalishvili fight where Yan was worn down by pace and wrestling. Vreeland believes Song's wrestling has improved and that he can take the first round against a slow-starting Yan. He argues that in a three-round fight, Song only needs to win the third round as Yan fades. Vreeland highlights Song's youth and upward trajectory as key factors.
Jeff Fox picks Song Yadong at even money, citing Petr Yan's three-fight losing streak and mental state concerns. He notes Song's continued improvement and youth, and believes Yan's slow starts in three-round fights are a liability. Fox thinks Song's wrestling has improved, as shown against Ricky Simon, and that he can tire Yan out by pushing the pace. He concludes that Yan refuses to win the first round, making him vulnerable.
Yan is on a three-fight losing streak and has a low-output style that often leaves him behind on the scorecards early. Song Yadong has improved his takedown defense and mixes his striking with grappling well. He is likely to be the more aggressive fighter, using kicks and volume to win rounds. Yan has power and can turn a fight with one shot, but his tendency to give up early rounds is a concern. I lean Song Yadong by decision, but this is not a lock.
Paul gives Yan a pass for some recent losses, noting he has fought the best in the division. He believes Yan's experience and multiple paths to victory (striking, wrestling) will be enough to beat Song, who hasn't proven himself against top-tier competition.
The MMA Guru switched from Song Yadong to Petr Yan after rewatching Song's fight with Chris Gutierrez. He argues Yan's compact style and catch-and-shoot counters will neutralize Song's power. He notes Song couldn't finish Gutierrez or Cory Sandhagen, and Yan's durability and boxing should win a striking match. He worries about Yan's three-fight losing streak but believes the aura is still there.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 75 of 143 | 52% | 87 of 155 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 147 of 338 | 43% | 202 of 401 | 11 of 49 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 6:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 20 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 22 of 62 | 35% | 35 of 81 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 21 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 35 of 80 | 43% | 41 of 86 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 8 of 27 | 29% | 9 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 15 of 46 | 32% | 22 of 53 | 1 of 14 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 | |
| 4 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 21 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 38 of 75 | 50% | 51 of 88 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 5 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 37 of 75 | 49% | 53 of 93 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 75 of 143 | 52% | 41 of 105 | 16 of 19 | 18 of 19 | 66 of 132 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 147 of 338 | 43% | 91 of 260 | 35 of 52 | 21 of 26 | 129 of 312 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 13 of 25 | 52% | 4 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 11 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 22 of 62 | 35% | 12 of 48 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 54 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 18 of 35 | 51% | 6 of 21 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 35 of 80 | 43% | 19 of 59 | 8 of 11 | 8 of 10 | 32 of 75 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 8 of 27 | 29% | 5 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 15 of 46 | 32% | 10 of 37 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 41 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Merab Dvalishvili | 21 of 31 | 67% | 15 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 38 of 75 | 50% | 24 of 55 | 10 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 36 of 72 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Merab Dvalishvili | 15 of 25 | 60% | 11 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 37 of 75 | 49% | 26 of 61 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 33 of 70 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Petr Yan despite acknowledging Merab's relentless wrestling. He believes Yan is the better fighter and will make Merab pay on his entries, using leg kicks and potentially his own takedowns. He compares Yan's situation to Figueiredo's potential downward spiral but notes that many think Yan beat O'Malley and Sterling. He goes with his brain over his gut.
Big Brady picks Petr Yan confidently, calling it a good matchup for him. He highlights Yan's incredible takedown defense and get-up game, and notes Dvalishvili has no control grappling—he can take down but not control. Brady expects Yan to stuff takedowns easier as the fight goes on and finish Dvalishvili with a fourth-round TKO, doing all the damage while Dvalishvili struggles to hold him down.
Cody picks Petr Yan but with hesitation due to the -250 price and Yan's recent performances, especially the close fight with Sean O'Malley. He notes Yan's slow starts and Dvalishvili's fast start, but believes Yan's volume, body attack, and ability to get back up will break Dvalishvili. He recommends live betting after the first round.
Connor picks Petr Yan, emphasizing Yan's superior striking technique, timing, and power. He notes that Yan's left hook is a key weapon against Dvalishvili, who is vulnerable to that punch due to overcommitting. Connor acknowledges Dvalishvili's relentless pressure and cardio but believes Yan's counterpunching and ability to pick his shots will prevail. He also points out that Yan's takedown defense and scrambling are solid enough to avoid being controlled.
I believe Petr Yan's superior technical striking and defensive wrestling will be the difference. Merab's takedown-heavy style relies on volume, but Yan's takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet should neutralize that. Yan's power and leg kicks will slow Merab's explosiveness, leading to a knockout within three rounds. Merab may have moments, but Yan's damage output will outweigh the control time.
Paul picks Petr Yan to win, noting Yan's slow starts but superior skill set and ability to calculate and adjust. He mentions Yan's takedown defense and cardio as key factors, and suggests live betting after the first round when Yan's price may improve. He is hesitant about the -250 line but confident Yan wins.
The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan, believing he is unfinishable and has improved his grappling. He notes that Merab is open on the feet and Yan will capitalize with elbows and shots off the break. He predicts Yan will win by decision or late-round TKO, as Merab's pace may slow and Yan's power will take over. He also mentions referees being anti-clinch, which may hinder Merab's game.
Zane picks Petr Yan, citing Yan's excellent counterpunching and left hook as key advantages. He notes that Dvalishvili is vulnerable to left hooks, as seen in fights against Marlon Moraes and Cody Stamann. Zane also highlights Yan's solid takedown defense and scrambling, which should prevent Dvalishvili from replicating Aljamain Sterling's back-taking game. He expects Yan to time Dvalishvili's entries and land cleaner shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 0 | 58 of 96 | 60% | 97 of 139 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 5:44 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 84 of 163 | 51% | 91 of 171 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 28 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 23 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 24 of 39 | 61% | 45 of 62 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean O'Malley | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 24 of 36 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 40 of 71 | 56% | 46 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | 58 of 96 | 60% | 24 of 57 | 13 of 18 | 21 of 21 | 47 of 81 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 9 |
| Petr Yan | 84 of 163 | 51% | 63 of 132 | 6 of 14 | 15 of 17 | 80 of 158 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean O'Malley | 19 of 31 | 61% | 5 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 11 of 11 | 17 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 23 of 55 | 41% | 13 of 37 | 3 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 23 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean O'Malley | 24 of 39 | 61% | 12 of 25 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 7 |
| Petr Yan | 21 of 37 | 56% | 17 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Sean O'Malley | 15 of 26 | 57% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Petr Yan | 40 of 71 | 56% | 33 of 63 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 36 of 67 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Yan (-265), O’Malley (+225)
Round 1
Yan and O’Malley launch into action at the prompting of referee Jason Herzog. Yan is in orthodox stance; O’Mally southpaw. Yan stalks forward as O’Malley slides around the outside of the cage. Yan switches stances and flicks out his right jab, then switches back. Herzog shouts a warning to O’Malley to watch his extended fingers. Yan lands a right low kick and eats a hard right hand counter. O’Malley connects with a right low kick. Halfway through the round, Yan changes levels for a double-leg near the fence. O’Malley backs into the cage, trying to keep the Russian from taking his back. Yan gives up on the takedown and they return to the center. Yan lands a series of three left hands upstairs, then drops for another takedown. This time, he hoists the taller man and dumps him to the canvas. With a minute left, Yan is in O’Malley’s guard. O’Malley goes to stand and eats some punches on the way up, but they return to their feet. O’Malley shoots a takedown at the 10-second clapper, briefly takes Yan’s back in the ensuing scramble, but they separate before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Yan
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Round 2
Yan lands an outside low kick, then one to the inside of O’Malley’s lead leg. O’Malley comes back with a huge uppercut that has Yan hurt badly. Yan staggers away as O’Malley gives chase, landing more punches. Yan turns the tables with a massive punch of his own and now O’Malley is rocked. Yan ducks under and drags O’Malley to the mat. Yan is in O’Malley’s guard as O’Malley squirms and looks to escape. O’Malley pops up and Yan drives him to the fence. O’Malley grounds himself with a hand on the canvas to forestall knees to the head. They separate and a moment later, Yan pushes O’Malley back to the floor with a nice inside trip. O’Malley pops right back up. Under two minutes to go and Yan is matching O’Malley down. O’Malley pushes him back with a kick up the middle, and slips the counter punch. Yan flicks a high kick upstairs, then comes in behind it for a takedown. Yan is in O’Malley’s guard at the base of the fence with 45 seconds left in the round. Yan postures up and lands a couple of punches. The round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Yan
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Round 3
Yan shoots for a takedown right away, but O’Malley defends well and stands him back up. O’Malley flicks out a couple of jabs. Yan lands a low kick. Yan swarms forward with hooks, then shoves O’Malley to the cage. O’Malley pushes him back off, and lands an intercepting knee that cuts Yan badly. Yan is bleeding right away. Yan comes up short with a pair of punches, then lands a one-two. O’Malley throws a high kick that glances. Yan shoots a fast takedown from way outside, but drives O’Malley to the fence, and gets him to the ground. Yan takes O’Malley’s back as they stand. O’Malley escapes and they separate. There’s 90 seconds left as they reset in the middle. O’Malley lands a pair of jabs to Yan’s bloodied right eye. Yan drags O’Malley to the ground late in the round, and is landing punches from guard at the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley (29-28 Yan)
The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Petr Yan via Split Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
Angelo picks Petr Yan confidently, calling him a phenomenal striker with fantastic takedown defense and surprising takedown offense. He notes Yan's power, accuracy, and grappling, and believes O'Malley will have trouble finding a rhythm. He acknowledges Yan's tendency to take the first round off but still expects a one-sided fight.
Big Brady picks Yan to win by TKO in the second round. He notes Yan's power (nearly 10 knockdowns in the UFC) and ability to mix in takedowns. O'Malley has faced mostly strikers and hasn't been tested on the ground; Yan can pressure him and potentially finish on top. He believes Yan's experience against elite strikers like Aldo and Sandhagen gives him a clear edge.
Cody is confident in Yan, noting that Yan is an underrated wrestler who can take O'Malley down and control him. He points out O'Malley's weaknesses against pressure and wrestlers, referencing the Marlon Vera fight. Cody believes Yan's experience and ability to figure out opponents as the fight goes on will be key. He thinks Yan can win by decision or inside the distance, and that O'Malley's popularity is inflating his odds.
Connor is confident Yan will win, arguing that Yan's layered striking and ability to adapt will overwhelm O'Malley. He notes that O'Malley's offense is based on feints and theoretical threats, while Yan has multiple modes of attack and will take easy targets like leg kicks. He also points out that Yan can pressure O'Malley to the fence and take him down, as he did against Sandhagen.
Daniel Levi picks Petr Yan to win, citing Yan's proven chin and ability to both give and take damage. He questions O'Malley's durability, noting that while O'Malley can strike well, it's unknown how he handles getting hit by a powerful puncher like Yan. Levi thinks Yan will pressure O'Malley and make him fight, and that Yan's experience against tough opponents gives him the edge. He also mentions that Yan may start slow but will win rounds as the fight progresses. Levi does not bet this fight but is confident in Yan.
Yan has a slow-starting style but excels in championship rounds. He has wrestling upside that could exploit O'Malley's weakness on the ground. O'Malley may be competitive early with kicks, but Yan's takedowns and top control should secure rounds. Yan by decision at -110 is the pick, and if the line drops to -250, the moneyline becomes attractive.
Paul is confident in Yan, citing that Yan is the better fighter and that O'Malley's action is due to his brand. He worries about Yan giving up round one but thinks Yan will figure out O'Malley and win. Paul notes Yan's wrestling and takedowns as a path to victory, and mentions he took a small bet on Yan by submission at long odds. He believes Yan's experience and skill gap will show.
The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan over Sean O'Malley by third-round TKO. He believes Yan's pressure, combinations, and ability to crowd O'Malley will be too much. He notes O'Malley's struggles against volume strikers and his tendency to spin, which Yan can exploit. He predicts O'Malley wins the first round but gets hurt in the second and finished in the third.
Zane picks Yan, emphasizing that Yan's pressure and ability to take easy targets will expose O'Malley's defensive flaws. He compares O'Malley to Darren Till, noting that both rely on a coiled-spring style that elite fighters eventually figure out. He believes Yan will force O'Malley into uncomfortable positions and break him down over time.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 62 of 110 | 56% | 91 of 143 | 2 of 22 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 8:31 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 63 of 103 | 61% | 139 of 186 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 5:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 20 of 41 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 17 of 29 | 58% | 42 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 21 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 8 of 18 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:43 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 4 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 18 of 25 | 72% | 48 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:51 | |
| 5 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Petr Yan | 0 | 20 of 32 | 62% | 37 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aljamain Sterling | 62 of 110 | 56% | 29 of 66 | 26 of 35 | 7 of 9 | 42 of 84 | 5 of 7 | 15 of 19 |
| Petr Yan | 63 of 103 | 61% | 32 of 71 | 17 of 18 | 14 of 14 | 46 of 80 | 8 of 11 | 9 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aljamain Sterling | 19 of 40 | 47% | 5 of 22 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 13 of 26 | 50% | 7 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Aljamain Sterling | 17 of 29 | 58% | 14 of 20 | 1 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 18 |
| Petr Yan | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Aljamain Sterling | 6 of 13 | 46% | 2 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Petr Yan | 8 of 15 | 53% | 2 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Aljamain Sterling | 8 of 10 | 80% | 2 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 18 of 25 | 72% | 10 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 7 | |
| 5 | Aljamain Sterling | 12 of 18 | 66% | 6 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Petr Yan | 20 of 32 | 62% | 12 of 23 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 5 |
Angelo picks Petr Yan by decision. He notes that Yan was winning the first fight and has better takedown defense (90%). He expects more of the same without the illegal knee, though he acknowledges Sterling's striking stats were close. He thinks Yan is safe for parlays.
Big Brady picks Petr Yan to win by fourth-round knockout. He references the first fight where Yan was winning before the illegal knee, and expects a similar pattern: Yan starts slow, builds into the fight, and takes over in later rounds. Yan's wrestling, cardio, and finishing ability are superior. Sterling may have a better game plan but Yan is the better five-round fighter.
Cody picks Yan but is worried about a potential upset. He thinks Sterling needs to fight an ultra-conservative game plan of jabbing and kicking, using the big octagon to avoid Yan's power. Cody notes Sterling's neck surgery and layoff, while Yan is active and experienced. He considers a draw possible if Sterling wins three rounds but gets 10-8'd in one. Ultimately, he sticks with Yan but with reservations.
Levi considers Yan the undisputed champion and a master of adjustments. He criticizes Sterling's durability and cardio, noting that Yan's pressure and reads will lead to a faster start this time. He expects Yan to crowd Sterling, negate his unorthodox kicks, and eventually finish by TKO. He has parlayed Yan with Ian Garry.
I think Yan gets stronger as the fight goes on and will find Sterling's chin. Sterling doesn't have the cardio to implement a 15-20 minute game plan. Yan will finish him late. I like Yan round 4/5/decision at -180 on FanDuel. The line is skewed due to public perception of Sterling.
Paul picks Yan, citing Yan's ability to calculate opponents and improve as the fight goes on, plus having four rounds of data from the first fight. He notes Sterling's wrestling was only 1 of 12 on takedowns and that he couldn't keep the pace for five rounds. Paul thinks Yan starts better this time and wins, though he doesn't love the -490 price.
The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan by decision, expecting a close fight. He thinks Sterling will win the first two rounds but Yan will edge the later rounds, winning 48-47. He criticizes Sterling's reaction to the illegal knee and notes Yan's toughness and strength. He believes Sterling will be more reserved, giving Yan time to figure him out.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 1 | 149 of 270 | 55% | 158 of 280 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1:09 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 0 | 169 of 445 | 37% | 172 of 449 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petr Yan | 0 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 0 | 37 of 85 | 43% | 39 of 87 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Petr Yan | 0 | 38 of 65 | 58% | 40 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 0 | 45 of 113 | 39% | 45 of 113 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Petr Yan | 1 | 36 of 57 | 63% | 41 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:40 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 0 | 37 of 86 | 43% | 37 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:07 | |
| 4 | Petr Yan | 0 | 36 of 67 | 53% | 38 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 0 | 25 of 83 | 30% | 26 of 84 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 5 | Petr Yan | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 20 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 0 | 25 of 78 | 32% | 25 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 149 of 270 | 55% | 100 of 217 | 27 of 29 | 22 of 24 | 135 of 252 | 7 of 9 | 7 of 9 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 169 of 445 | 37% | 118 of 389 | 28 of 32 | 23 of 24 | 168 of 443 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petr Yan | 19 of 37 | 51% | 4 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 12 | 17 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 37 of 85 | 43% | 21 of 68 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 11 | 36 of 83 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Petr Yan | 38 of 65 | 58% | 23 of 50 | 8 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 36 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 45 of 113 | 39% | 30 of 95 | 9 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 45 of 113 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Petr Yan | 36 of 57 | 63% | 29 of 49 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 9 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 37 of 86 | 43% | 29 of 78 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 37 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Petr Yan | 36 of 67 | 53% | 28 of 59 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 25 of 83 | 30% | 20 of 77 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Petr Yan | 20 of 44 | 45% | 16 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 20 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cory Sandhagen | 25 of 78 | 32% | 18 of 71 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Petr Yan to win a competitive decision. He notes both are great strikers, but Yan has the edge in boxing and can mix in takedowns. Sandhagen's takedown defense is a weakness (65% on paper, but was lower before the Dillashaw fight). Yan's wrestling and control time should be the difference. He expects a close fight but Yan edges it out.
Cody is high on Petr Yan, calling him a 'terminator' with cardio, striking, and underrated wrestling. He notes Yan has scored takedowns in his last six fights, including against Aljamain Sterling and Jose Aldo. He thinks Yan's wrestling will be the difference against Sandhagen, who can be taken down. He suggests betting Yan live for a better price but is confident Yan wins.
Daniel picks Petr Yan to defend his title, calling him a top-five pound-for-pound fighter. He highlights Yan's well-roundedness, cardio, and ability to lull opponents into a false sense of security before dropping them. Daniel notes Yan's takedown success against Jose Aldo and Aljamain Sterling, and believes Sandhagen's clinch issues and tendency to give up his back will be exploited. He predicts a fourth-round TKO.
Sandhagen's volume and output from distance will be Yan's kryptonite. Yan prefers to strike but Sandhagen throws 16.5 strikes per minute from outside and has the cardio to maintain it. Yan's takedowns are a threat, but he doesn't usually grapple heavily. Sandhagen wins a volume-based decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, adding that playing Yan live is risky because Yan might get an early takedown and the line will move to -400. He thinks Sandhagen's only chance is if it's a pure striking match, but Yan's wrestling will be the difference. He sees Yan as the clear side.
The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan to win by TKO in the later rounds. He highlights Yan's grappling, especially when taking the back, and notes that Sandhagen gives up his back frequently. He thinks Yan will catch kicks, sweep, and take Sandhagen down. He questions Sandhagen's KO power, noting his recent finishes were against chinny opponents. He predicts Yan will be patient, chop at the legs, and eventually finish Sandhagen in the fourth or fifth round.
Douglas Silva de Andrade - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 19 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Javier Reyes | 1 | 46 of 75 | 61% | 87 of 125 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 19 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Javier Reyes | 1 | 46 of 75 | 61% | 87 of 125 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 17 of 27 | 62% | 8 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Javier Reyes | 46 of 75 | 61% | 42 of 69 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 37 of 43 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 17 of 27 | 62% | 8 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Javier Reyes | 46 of 75 | 61% | 42 of 69 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 37 of 43 |
Angelo picks Javier Reyes despite acknowledging that Douglas Silva de Andrade is the better individual fighter. He cites Silva de Andrade's age (40) and long layoff (almost two years) as major concerns. He believes Reyes's busy, active style and youth will overwhelm the older fighter, as long as Reyes avoids poor takedown attempts.
Big Brady picks the underdog Douglas Silva de Andrade, despite his age (40) and moving up to featherweight. He believes Andrade's elite takedown defense will neutralize Javier Reyes' grappling, and that Andrade is the better striker. He notes Reyes has been knocked out before and predicts a second-round knockout for Andrade.
Cody agrees, noting Silva de Andrade's age, muscle mass, and inactivity. He sees Reyes as a human tornado with high KO percentage and expects him to overwhelm Silva de Andrade.
Connor picks Reyes as a sadness hedge, noting that Silva is older, less active, and getting hurt more. Reyes has finished many opponents and tries to finish, while Silva's durability has declined. However, Connor acknowledges that Silva would win at any other point in their careers.
Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.
The host is betting on Andrade because he believes the odds are wildly inaccurate. He notes that Andrade is a nightmare matchup for Reyes: he has knockout power, a granite chin, is tough, well-rounded, and difficult to take down. Reyes is making his UFC debut, looks flat, has poor striking defense, and is not physically imposing. Despite Andrade being 40 and on a two-year layoff, the host thinks he should be the favorite and is great value at +187.
James expects Reyes' relentless pace and cardio to overwhelm the 40-year-old Silva de Andrade, who may tire after a layoff. He predicts a late finish for Reyes, possibly in round three.
The host picks Javier Reyes, noting that Silva de Andrade is 40, has been inactive, and moves up in weight. He believes Reyes's well-rounded game, size advantage, and grappling will be key. He expects Reyes to take the fight to the ground and grind out a decision, though he warns that Silva de Andrade has power early and could replicate a past knockout of Reyes.
Paul likes Reyes's finishing ability and believes Silva de Andrade's age, layoff, and health issues will be factors. He expects Reyes to win by knockout, possibly in the second or third round, and recommends the KO prop at +350.
The MMA Guru picks Javier Reyes over the 40-year-old Douglas Silva de Andrade, who has looked poor in recent fights. He notes that Reyes has fought decent competition outside the UFC and is a young prospect, while Andrade has lost power and physicality moving up to featherweight. He predicts a 29-28 decision win for Reyes.
Zane picks Silva de Andrade despite his age and inactivity, because Reyes is a mess with poor footwork and no structure. Silva has a janky but effective style and has fought elite competition. However, Silva is 40, coming off a layoff, and has lost a step, making this a 50/50 toss-up.
Angelo picks John Castañeda, citing his youth, speed, and cardio advantage over the aging Douglas Silva de Andrade. He acknowledges that Andrade is a tough matchup with a solid chin and bowling-ball build, making him hard to take down. He expects Castañeda to win by outworking Andrade as he slows down, but warns that the fight could be close and suggests monitoring the line for value.
Big Brady picks John Castañeda, citing age advantage (seven years younger), better volume, cardio, wrestling, and durability. He notes Douglas Silva de Andrade is declining, with poor recent performances. He expects Castañeda to outwork him over 15 minutes and win by decision.
The host believes Castañeda is the better overall fighter, though de Andrade can make it close with his power. He expects Castañeda to use a combination of striking, footwork, and takedowns to win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks John Castañeda over Douglas Silva de Andrade. He notes Silva de Andrade is aging and less active, while Castañeda is durable, hard to finish, and pushes a strong pace. He expects Castañeda to win the later rounds and get a decision, possibly 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Johns | 0 | 36 of 119 | 30% | 36 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 50 of 96 | 52% | 52 of 98 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miles Johns | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Miles Johns | 0 | 10 of 41 | 24% | 10 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 25 of 45 | 55% | 25 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Miles Johns | 0 | 14 of 51 | 27% | 14 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Johns | 36 of 119 | 30% | 21 of 80 | 6 of 21 | 9 of 18 | 36 of 118 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 50 of 96 | 52% | 37 of 82 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 50 of 96 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miles Johns | 12 of 27 | 44% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 7 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 7 of 15 | 46% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Miles Johns | 10 of 41 | 24% | 4 of 24 | 4 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 25 of 45 | 55% | 19 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Miles Johns | 14 of 51 | 27% | 10 of 40 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 7 | 14 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 18 of 36 | 50% | 15 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Miles Johns, citing his youth, speed, and wrestling advantage. He notes Douglas is durable and a tough striker but is older and slowing down. He worries about Miles' cardio but believes his wrestling will be the difference. He mentions he has a moneyline bet on Miles.
Cody picks Miles Johns, citing his improved cardio and wrestling under Trey Ogden at Marathon MMA. He notes that Johns used to gas out but has shown better pacing in recent fights. Cody believes Johns can outwork Silva de Andrade by pressing him against the cage and using takedowns, especially since Silva de Andrade is 39 and cuts to 135, which may affect his durability. He expects a low-volume decision win for Johns.
Daniel Vreeland has a love-hate relationship with Miles Johns, noting his low output and tendency to back himself to the fence. He acknowledges Douglas Silva de Andrade's experience and durability but leans with Johns due to his physicality, youth, and confidence. He expects a low-output fight and sees Johns as the more physical younger guy.
Jacob picks Miles Johns but expects to be nervous during the fight. He recalls Miles gassing in the Cody Gibson fight and needing motivation. He thinks Douglas is a tough bowling ball and Miles may struggle with cardio again. He notes Miles should win but it will be close.
Johns has evolved and matured, allowing him to execute a game plan to wear on de Andrade's gas tank. By slowing him down early and evading his power, Johns will grind out a decision using clinching, takedowns, footwork, and output.
Paul picks Douglas Silva de Andrade as a dog, noting that he bets him almost every fight because he is always the underdog. He highlights Silva de Andrade's durability and power, and believes that judges are not rewarding wrestling control as much these days. Paul thinks Silva de Andrade can land the bigger shots and win, despite his low volume.
The MMA Guru picks Douglas Silva de Andrade, questioning whether Miles Johns can KO him. He notes Johns couldn't KO Cody Gibson and relies too much on overhands. He thinks Silva de Andrade has better wins (Cody Stamann, Sergey Morozov) and will make reads on Johns' power shots. He also mentions Silva de Andrade's competitive fights with Lerone Murphy and Nate Maness.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 1 | 54 of 139 | 38% | 66 of 152 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 61 of 178 | 34% | 72 of 189 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 14 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 23 of 72 | 31% | 23 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 14 of 44 | 31% | 14 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 21 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 1 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 38 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 17 of 54 | 31% | 28 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 54 of 139 | 38% | 40 of 116 | 9 of 17 | 5 of 6 | 49 of 133 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Cody Stamann | 61 of 178 | 34% | 17 of 108 | 23 of 43 | 21 of 27 | 60 of 175 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 14 of 39 | 35% | 8 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 23 of 72 | 31% | 7 of 42 | 7 of 15 | 9 of 15 | 22 of 69 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 14 of 44 | 31% | 10 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 21 of 52 | 40% | 4 of 30 | 9 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 21 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 26 of 56 | 46% | 22 of 48 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Cody Stamann | 17 of 54 | 31% | 6 of 36 | 7 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo gives a slight lean to Cody Stamann, citing his wrestling and pace. He notes Douglas Silva de Andrade hits hard and is strong at 135, but Stamann can stick with the pace. He says both are durable and if he bets, it would be over 2.5 rounds. He calls it a slight lean.
Big Brady sees this as a close fight. He notes Stamann has a volume edge on the feet, but Andrade has a four-inch reach advantage and all the power and finishing upside. He mentions Andrade has good takedown defense and an excellent get-up game, making it hard for Stamann to hold him down. Brady expects a competitive striking match that likely goes to decision, and picks Andrade to win by landing the bigger shots and having the bigger moments, possibly via split decision.
Cody picks Stamann but is hesitant, noting that Stamann often struggles against opponents he should beat. He points out Stamann's close fight with Luan Lacerda where he was outstruck in damage. He worries about de Andrade's power and takedown defense, and thinks the line is accurate. He expects a close decision.
Connor leans toward Stamann but is less confident, noting that Stamann's new aggressive style still has hitches and that de Andrade's power and unpredictability could cause problems. He thinks Stamann's counterpunching and body work are key, but de Andrade's wild swings could land. Connor sees this as a good test for Stamann's evolution.
Daniel Levi picks Cody Stamann via decision, describing him as a solid, meat-and-potatoes fighter who does just enough to win. He notes that Stamann's fights are usually close, but he consistently edges out opponents. Levi acknowledges Silva de Andrade's power and submission threats, but believes Stamann's takedown defense and point fighting will earn him a narrow decision. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation for betting.
Stamann's speed and footwork will keep him out of danger against the aggressive, powerful Silva de Andrade. He can dart in and out with combinations, mix in takedowns to slow the Brazilian, and pull away later in the fight. Stamann is motivated and will put on a complete performance to win by decision.
Paul picks Stamann, expecting him to utilize his wrestling and pace. He notes that Stamann should avoid striking exchanges and take the fight to the ground. He thinks the line should be closer to -200 and sees value at -145. He mentions Stamann's takedown prop on PrizePicks.
The MMA Guru leans towards Douglas Silva de Andrade, citing his toughness and dangerous pocket fighting. He notes that Cody Stamann has short reach and must be in the pocket, where Silva de Andrade is more dangerous. He predicts a close decision win.
Zane picks Cody Stamann, banking on his durability and newfound aggression. He notes that Stamann has never been knocked out and that his counterpunching and body work could exploit de Andrade's wild style. However, he acknowledges that de Andrade is dangerous and that Stamann's transformation is still incomplete, making this a tough test.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Said Nurmagomedov | 0 | 28 of 74 | 37% | 44 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:12 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 42 of 97 | 43% | 77 of 150 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Said Nurmagomedov | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 10 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 9 of 30 | 30% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Said Nurmagomedov | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 14 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Said Nurmagomedov | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 20 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 29 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Said Nurmagomedov | 28 of 74 | 37% | 4 of 34 | 11 of 19 | 13 of 21 | 24 of 66 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 5 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 42 of 97 | 43% | 21 of 69 | 12 of 18 | 9 of 10 | 39 of 89 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Said Nurmagomedov | 8 of 22 | 36% | 0 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 9 of 30 | 30% | 4 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 28 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Said Nurmagomedov | 13 of 32 | 40% | 3 of 16 | 4 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 12 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 21 of 41 | 51% | 11 of 30 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Said Nurmagomedov | 7 of 20 | 35% | 1 of 9 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 12 of 26 | 46% | 6 of 17 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 23 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Said Nurmagomedov, citing his cleaner and more versatile striking technique and solid defense. He notes Douglas Silva de Andrade has more power but a negative striking differential. He believes Nurmagomedov's pace and striking defense will allow him to outpoint Silva de Andrade, though he must avoid the power. He sees this as a striker vs striker matchup.
Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov, praising his flashy striking, defensive soundness, and youth. He notes that Nurmagomedov is hard to hit and has a well-rounded game with wrestling in his back pocket. He believes Silva de Andrade, despite his power and toughness, will struggle with Nurmagomedov's movement and volume. Brady predicts a decision win for Nurmagomedov, though he acknowledges a finish is possible.
Cody thinks Said's superior speed, footwork, and lateral movement will be key against the shorter, stockier de Andrade. He believes Said can stay at distance and chip away, and has multiple paths to victory including a finish. He acknowledges de Andrade's durability and toughness but sees Said as the safer play.
The host does not make a pick on the winner of this fight. He only bets on the under 2.5 rounds prop, which is his lock of the night play. He expects a finish regardless of who wins, likely from Nurmagomedov within the first two rounds. He does not pick a side on the moneyline.
Paul is torn on this fight. He loves de Andrade as a dog but thinks the price is too wide. He calls it a dogger pass situation, noting that de Andrade has shown heart and durability but Said is very skilled. He doesn't commit to a pick.
The Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov, noting his range and body kicks will trouble the shorter de Andrade. He predicts a submission (guillotine) in the second round, possibly after hurting de Andrade to the body. He mentions de Andrade's age (37) as a factor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 3 | 37 of 64 | 57% | 57 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Sergey Morozov | 1 | 32 of 65 | 49% | 62 of 99 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 28 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sergey Morozov | 1 | 23 of 40 | 57% | 53 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 | |
| 2 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 3 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 29 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Sergey Morozov | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 25 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 37 of 64 | 57% | 16 of 40 | 12 of 14 | 9 of 10 | 31 of 56 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
| Sergey Morozov | 32 of 65 | 49% | 24 of 56 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 15 of 30 | 50% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergey Morozov | 23 of 40 | 57% | 19 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 | |
| 2 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 22 of 34 | 64% | 10 of 21 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 26 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
| Sergey Morozov | 9 of 25 | 36% | 5 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Morozov due to his wrestling advantage, noting that Andrade has been taken down in every loss. He believes Morozov can hang with Andrade's power, set a hard pace, and mix in takedowns to win a unanimous decision. He acknowledges Andrade's experience but thinks Morozov's pressure and top control will be decisive.
Big Brady is impressed with Morozov's well-rounded game, especially his fight IQ and takedown ability. He notes Morozov showed good striking against Khalid Taha and took him down six times. Brady believes Morozov will take down Silva de Andrade multiple times and control him on the mat, leading to a decision win. He also points out Silva de Andrade is 36 and has only one submission win, relying mostly on knockouts.
Cody picks Morozov, citing his high-level regional experience and grinding style. He notes Silva de Andrade has poor takedown defense and that Morozov can exploit that. He expects Morozov to take him down and control the fight.
Daniel Levi picks Sergey Morozov by decision. He notes that Morozov showed big improvements in his last fight and that his clinch and pressure will be key. Silva de Andrade has holes in the clinch and tends to rest. Levi believes Morozov will work harder and win a decision.
Morozov has a clear grappling advantage and should dominate de Andrade on the ground. De Andrade has shown vulnerability to wrestlers in the past, struggling to get up from under opponents like Henan Barou. Morozov trains at American Top Team and has sharp boxing to close distance. The only way de Andrade wins is by knockout, but Morozov's chin and unorthodox striking make that unlikely. Already placed 3 units and may add more.
Paul admits he hasn't watched tape on this fight and defers to Cody's analysis. He doesn't make a clear pick.
The MMA Guru picks Sergey Morozov, citing his grappling pressure and ability to slow down Douglas Silva de Andrade, who tends to fade. He notes Morozov's strong M1 Challenge background and believes he can secure a third-round rear-naked choke finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 1 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Gaetano Pirrello | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 1 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Gaetano Pirrello | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 10 of 15 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Gaetano Pirrello | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 10 of 15 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Gaetano Pirrello | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Gaetano Pirrello as the underdog, believing his world-class Muay Thai striking will be too much for Douglas Silva de Andrade. He notes that Andrade is dropping down to 135, which may affect his chin, and that he rarely uses his wrestling despite having a clear path to victory via takedowns. Angelo thinks Pirrello will get to showcase his striking and that Andrade will be on the wrong end of it. He considers a moneyline bet at plus money and may include Pirrello in his knockout pool.
Big Brady picks Douglas Silva de Andrade to win by knockout, but is not overly confident due to Andrade's age (36) and style. He notes Andrade is a striker who will brawl, which plays into Pirrello's hands as Pirrello is dangerous and has 14 of 17 wins inside the distance. However, Andrade has fought much better competition (Rob Font, Marlon Vera, etc.) while Pirrello looked poor in his UFC debut against Ricky Simone. Brady thinks the line is wide and prefers a violence play.
Cody picks Andrade based on experience and durability. He notes that Andrade has fought tough competition and has a good chin. Pirrello is a striker who has not faced the same level of opposition. He expects Andrade to pressure and take over as Pirrello fades. However, he is not highly confident.
Daniel Levi picks Douglas Silva de Andrade, citing his experience and ability to show up in fights. He notes Pirrello has issues with takedown defense and chin, but Silva is 36 at bantamweight and could be caught. Levi thinks at their best, Silva wins, but he does not recommend laying -240 due to the risk. He personally passes on betting but picks Silva to get it done.
I think Pirrello's cardio fades as the fight goes on, and Andrade is the better fighter everywhere. Andrade has good power and grappling, and Pirrello's defensive grappling is terrible. I like Andrade by decision at +175, but the moneyline is fine too. I'm not worried about Pirrello's early danger because Andrade can weather it.
Paul also picks Andrade but is not confident. He notes that Andrade has not fought frequently and has a limited grappling game. Pirrello is a dangerous striker early. He thinks Andrade's experience will be the difference but is wary of the price.
The MMA Guru picks Douglas Silva de Andrade, noting that Gaetano Pirrello looked fundamentally unprepared in his debut against Ricky Simone. He believes Silva de Andrade is a big bantamweight with good wins, including over Marlon Vera. He expects a scrappy fight but predicts Silva de Andrade will win by unanimous decision 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 48 of 115 | 41% | 60 of 131 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 39 of 108 | 36% | 51 of 121 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 11 of 38 | 28% | 12 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 19 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 15 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 18 of 45 | 40% | 25 of 56 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 24 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 48 of 115 | 41% | 29 of 92 | 8 of 11 | 11 of 12 | 37 of 97 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 10 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 39 of 108 | 36% | 16 of 74 | 11 of 14 | 12 of 20 | 33 of 101 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 16 of 37 | 43% | 8 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 11 of 38 | 28% | 2 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 13 | 11 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 14 of 33 | 42% | 8 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 11 of 27 | 40% | 4 of 18 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 18 of 45 | 40% | 13 of 40 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 31 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 10 |
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 17 of 43 | 39% | 10 of 33 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 12 of 38 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady thinks Lerone Murphy is the cleaner striker and has a reach advantage. He acknowledges Douglas Silva de Andrade is tough and throws volume, but believes Murphy's technique will prevail. He notes Murphy's wrestling is decent and he can work back to his feet. He predicts a decision win for Murphy, but says it could be close.
The host likes Lerone Murphy's reach, power, and ground-and-pound, and believes he can either out-strike Douglas from distance or take him down for a finish. He notes Douglas's age and lack of takedown defense, and expects Murphy to win by second-round KO via ground and pound.
The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy, citing his dangerous stand-up, great grappling, and strength. He notes Murphy's win over Ricardo Ramos and his draw with Zubaira Tukhugov on short notice. He believes Douglas Silva de Andrade is too small for featherweight and will get overwhelmed, predicting a second or third round TKO.
The rematch, Mareb has cut weight 4 times this year alone. So not going to be his best. Petr Yan is having a resurgence but against who. Merab has made improvement whilst Petr has gotten more conservative. A ko for Yan will probably be his best chance as the fight goes on. Merab by finish is 6.0 but UFC is not exciting so decision incoming