Career Averages - Montel Jackson
Career Averages - Brian Kelleher
Montel Jackson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 1 | 35 of 66 | 53% | 72 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 21 of 38 | 55% | 33 of 51 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 7:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 1 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 46 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 7 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:49 | |
| 2 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 15 of 25 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 2:14 | |
| 3 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 11 of 18 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 35 of 66 | 53% | 26 of 57 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 53 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 8 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 21 of 38 | 55% | 7 of 18 | 8 of 11 | 6 of 9 | 13 of 30 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 14 of 24 | 58% | 10 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 8 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Montel Jackson | 13 of 19 | 68% | 9 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 8 of 17 | 47% | 2 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Montel Jackson | 8 of 23 | 34% | 7 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 10 of 17 | 58% | 5 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-175); Barcelos (+140)
Round 1
The fighters in this next main card offering weigh roughly half of what the two heavyweights in the last bout amassed, and speed kills at 135 pounds. “Quik” Jackson (15-3, 9-3 UFC) saw his mighty six-fight win streak come to a halt last year when Deiveson Figueiredo narrowly outpointed him, so he is in search of getting back in the green. Ageless wonder Barcelos (21-5, 10-4 UFC), who turns 39 next Friday, has won four in a row and could be poised to make a run. Referee Jason Herzog will make sure everything is copacetic.
The longer Jackson takes a few seconds to measure his opponent, and with his long reach, he clips Jackson with a head kick that shakes the elder statesman to his core. Barcelos hits the ground, and Jackson proceeds to hammer him with concussive blows. Barcelos takes them mostly on the chin, surviving and moving enough to stave off Herzog, all while huge strikes collide with his head time and again. Barcelos gets through the initial assault and turns to his knees in pursuit of a takedown, pushing the longer fighter against the wall. When there is no takedown to come from it, he spins out and ducks knowing that Jackson will—and does—swing at him. Jackson’s jab is money, and his follow-up left is destroying Barcelos’ face. Barcelos right eye is swelling and badly damaged halfway through the round.
Ignoring the pain, Barcelos closes in and trips Jackson to the floor. Barcelos climbs on top, and when Jackson tries to set something up off his back, Barcelos powerslams him. Jackson scrambles upon the impact, and Barcelos grabs his shorts in hopes of hanging on. Herzog admonishes him for the foul, and Jackson squirms his way out. Barcelos looks to jab his way in, but the range is a seemingly insurmountable task for the older man when he tries to box. Barcelos has to sell out and rush forward to swing, but when he gets close enough, he grabs hold of “Quik” and hurls him to the mat like a junior high wrestling coach against a new recruit. Jackson turns to his side, and Barcelos starts fishing for rear-naked choke. On the third attempt, it is under the chin, but Jackson is not about to give up. Time is up before the submission is complete.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Round 2
Herzog informs Barcelos between rounds to not grab the shorts or commit any position-changing fouls lest he deduct a point. They engage again, with Barcelos slowly, methodically working his way in. He looks to counter even with Jackson the far longer man, and he does not sell out or get reckless to advance. When he finds his openings, he draws ever closer, until he is near enough to crash the pocket and go for a level change. Jackson keeps his balance with his back to the cage, and he works his way out and resets.
Barcelos stays pressing the pace, walking through the fire that Jackson swings at him with every single effective blow. Barcelos takes the strikes on the chin and looks to engage his grappling. He does not force the action or put himself off-balance, instead measuring his blows efficiently to set up and further open up offense. Barcelos beats on his opponent until Jackson turns around to give up his back, and with seconds to spare, Barcelos once again goes for the rear-naked choke. The Brazilian wraps his left arm under the chin, and Jackson keeps his hand ready to tap but hears his corner saying he can make it to the bell and does just that.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Round 3
The grizzled veteran—14 UFC fights to Jackson’s 12—Barcelos goes right after Jackson in the final frame, looking to take the offense out of his opponent and prevent him from landing hard on him. As he controls Jackson against the cage for a prolonged time, he cannot secure a level change. Jackson works his way out, and Barcelos chases him and gives him a right hand on the jaw to think about. Jackson appears surprise, and he fires big punches at Barcelos that Barcelos ducks. Barcelos gets his hands on Jackson, and he sweeps the leg and puts Jackson down.
Jackson works back to his feet and lifts Barcelos off the ground with a knee in the clinch. Barcelos throws one back, and they trade hands up close until Jackson gets the space he was seeking. Jackson doubles up on a jab to the temple, whipping a rear-leg high kick at him that Barcelos blocks in time. Barcelos walks through the offense to wrap his hands around Jackson, where he takes him for a ride with a trip and throw. Jackson bounces back up, and Barcelos looks for a mat return with a single. Barcelos boots Jackson right in the face, bloodying his nose with it, and he lets Jackson charge him to turn that against him. Like the previous two rounds, Barcelos takes the back position and is fishing for a choke. Also like those rounds, there is no truly deep submission, so time expires and it’s all up to the judges. It could go either way.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Montel Jackson via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo leans on Montel Jackson, noting his power and wrestling background. He points out that Jackson's three UFC losses came when he couldn't defend takedowns, but believes Raoni Barcelos's age may prevent him from getting takedowns. He worries that Jackson might be gunshy due to wrestling concerns, which could allow Barcelos to win with empty takedowns. He says Montel should win but the fight could get weird.
Big Brady picks Montel Jackson but with hesitation. He acknowledges Jackson's talent and power but notes his inconsistency and lack of effort in some fights. He believes if Jackson shows up, he can knock out Barcelos, who is older and has a questionable chin. However, he warns that Jackson could lose if he doesn't try.
The host notes Jackson has many physical advantages but is mentally inconsistent, often passive and inactive. Barcelos is mentally strong, high output, and aggressive. He believes Barcelos has a good chance if Jackson is not at his best. He prefers Barcelos +3.5 because Jackson lacks killer instinct and often goes to decision, and Barcelos should win at least one round.
James picks Barcelos as an underdog, believing his veteran skills and pocket boxing will overcome Jackson's power. He thinks Barcelos can follow the blueprint from Figueiredo's win over Jackson, using takedowns and pressure to win a decision or late submission.
Barcelos is on a four-fight winning streak with improved durability and a well-rounded game. He can use lateral movement, kicks, and wrestling to neutralize Jackson's power. Jackson is gun-shy and struggles against wrestlers. Barcelos has more paths to victory and should win a decision, though he risks getting knocked out if he gets caught clean.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 23 of 44 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Montel Jackson | 0 | 30 of 70 | 42% | 30 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 8 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Montel Jackson | 0 | 8 of 20 | 40% | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Montel Jackson | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montel Jackson | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 23 of 43 | 53% | 4 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 10 of 13 | 22 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Montel Jackson | 30 of 70 | 42% | 14 of 51 | 7 of 8 | 9 of 11 | 28 of 67 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 8 of 13 | 61% | 0 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Montel Jackson | 8 of 20 | 40% | 4 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 7 of 16 | 43% | 2 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Montel Jackson | 14 of 32 | 43% | 7 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 8 of 14 | 57% | 2 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Montel Jackson | 8 of 18 | 44% | 3 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-300); Figueiredo (+250)
Round 1
On his first career losing streak, Figueiredo (24-5-1, 13-5-1 UFC) at the tender age of 37 would like nothing more than to turn things around at the expense of “Quik” Jackson (15-2, 9-2 UFC). Both bantamweights have plenty of firepower, so referee Jason Herzog will need to don his proverbial hard hat. Fists are bumped before they are traded.
Figueiredo lets loose first with a low kick, and he ducks a huge right hand to clinch up. They split before anything of merit lands, and Figueiredo resets and reaches with another low kick. Jackson plants a one-two on the Brazilian’s jaw, who responds with a heavier-than-expected body kick. Figueiredo kicks low and ducks the anticipated counter, and he looks for a body lock to muscle the longer man to the floor. “Daico” manages to leverage Jackson to the mat, where he starts hunting for a way to pass the guard. Jackson uses butterfly hooks to keep the former flyweight king at bay, and he briefly gives up his back when scrambling. Figueiredo takes it, and he has to let it go when Jackson explodes to his feet. Figueiredo drives a knee to the chest on the way up, and he retreats.
Jackson smacks him with an inside calf kick, and he doubles up on jabs to the body. Figueiredo turns his hips to a hard leg kick, and he swipes out with a right hand when Jackson advances towards him. The calf kicks land from both sides, and Figueiredo sprints in and ducks down to clip Jackson with a big right hand. Jackson fires back on the way back, catching the Brazilian as well but off-balance so his weight is not behind it. The two hand-fight, and Figueiredo boots his foe in the sternum. Jackson catches the leg, but when he cannot do anything with it, he releases it and bops Figueiredo in the nose with a jab. Figueiredo runs towards Jackson and cracks him with a right hand that makes Jackson’s knees buckle, and one final body kick from the former champ ends the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Round 2
Figueiredo jogs out of his corner looking to throw hands, and he uses the punches to set up a takedown. Less than 20 seconds into the round, and Figueiredo has secured full mount. Jackson turns to escape, and Figueiredo uses the opportunity to snatch up an arm-triangle choke. “Deus da Guerra” jumps to the side to complete the sub, and rather than wait around for it to be over, Jackson somehow busts out of it and stops the choke from materializing. Figueiredo smoothly slides around to take the back, and he fishes for something but does not have any openings. Jackson works to his feet before long, and he stabs out a jab that bloodies up the bridge of the former flyweight champ’s nose. Figueiredo motions low to fake a takedown, and he kicks where he reached towards instead.
The feints of the Brazilian draw out reactions, allowing him to rip kicks to the body when not pump-faking. Jackson swats out with a single right hook, and Figueiredo does the same. Volume is low and both men are tentative to engage, and even more cautious committing to much. Figueiredo hops away from a couple half-hearted jabs and pitches a kick to the midsection. Jackson sticks and moves, and he just evades a looping right hand intent on lopping his head off at the stem. Jackson peppers the reddened nose of his foe with a few more jabs, and he takes a low kick on the way out. Jackson sits down on two punches and a knee, and Figueiredo is fired up and lets go with his own punches. A right hand from the Brazilian appears to wobble Jackson with seconds to spare, and the two duke it out until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Round 3
Bounding out of his corner ready for five more minutes of bantamweight melee, Figueiredo strikes first with a jumping stomp kick to the knee. The Brazilian goes high with his lead leg, and he sways to take the brunt out of a jab. Figueiredo backs his man up with surging punches, and he takes a flush jab on the forehead. Figueiredo drills the front leg with a kick, and he races forward and slips. Jackson does not capitalize on this, instead allowing Figueiredo to stand up so he can push out one single jab. Jackson chambers and fires off a hard low kick, and Figueiredo grins at him and briefly switches stances before recovering and loosing a body kick that just misses.
Jackson tags Figueiredo walking in with a left and then a right, and he times the bounces of the Brazilian to moderate effect. Jackson scores a body kick, and Figueiredo grimaces at him. Jackson kicks the same spot once more, resulting in a clinch and some knees from the Brazilian. Jackson uses a body lock to elevate the former champ and dump him on his back, and Figueiredo bounces off the mat as if he had springs in his shorts without taking a strike. Jackson backs off his opponent, but all he can muster is a low kick that is answered harder by the ex-champ. The crowd is completely out of the fight, disappointed by four straight losses for the locals, even though one might win this lackluster match. Figueiredo waves Jackson on with 10 seconds to go, and he boots Jackson in the belly with a kick. Pointing down again, he tricks Jackson to engage and shoots for a single. The bummer of a bout ends with Figueiredo looking for a hug.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (29-28 Figueiredo)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo (30-27 Figueiredo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo (30-27 Figueiredo)
The Official Result
Deiveson Figueiredo def. Montel Jackson via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Montel Jackson, believing he will rise to the occasion. He notes Figueiredo is a shell of his former self, older and slower. He acknowledges Figueiredo's past success but thinks Montel's wrestling and power will be enough. He also mentions Figueiredo plus 3.5 as a possible bet.
Big Brady picks Montel Jackson to win by first-round knockout. He notes Jackson's significant size advantage (5-inch height, 7.5-inch reach) and power, having many knockdowns in the UFC. He believes Figueiredo has taken too much damage and is now 37, and that Jackson will keep the fight standing and land a knockout. He expects Jackson to stuff takedowns easily.
Cody also picks Figueiredo, calling it a 'dog or pass' fight. He highlights Jackson's low output and susceptibility to takedowns, while Figueiredo's experience and power make him live. He suggests waiting for a better price or live betting.
James picks Figueiredo as a value underdog, citing Figgy's superior jiu-jitsu and wrestling as a path to victory via submission or control. He notes Montel Jackson's wrestling vulnerability exposed in past fights and Figueiredo's ability to get takedowns. However, he admits low confidence due to Figueiredo's recent losses and age, and says he would not bet on Montel at -275.
Lucrative James picks Montel Jackson but is not confident. He notes Figueiredo's age and declining durability, but also his takedown and jiu-jitsu advantage. He believes Jackson's wrestling is a weakness, but Figueiredo may not be able to exploit it. He sees Jackson winning by decision, but wouldn't bet at -305.
Manpreet leans towards Jackson but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline at -300. He believes Jackson's reach and height advantages will be key, and that Jackson's power will find a knockout as Figueiredo slows down. However, he acknowledges Figueiredo's grappling threat and notes that if Figueiredo can get control time, he could win. He considers the KO prop for Jackson and the submission prop for Figueiredo at +800 as alternatives.
Paul picks Figueiredo as a dog, arguing that Montel Jackson's -300 price is unjustified. He points out Jackson's low volume striking and lack of elite wins, while Figueiredo has faced top competition and has the wrestling and power to win a close fight in Brazil. He sees value in the underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson over Deiveson Figueiredo, believing Figueiredo is past his prime and looked poor against Sandhagen. He notes Jackson has a reach advantage and is durable. He predicts a decision win for Jackson.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 0 | 30 of 66 | 45% | 67 of 106 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 3:37 |
| Daniel Marcos | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 24 of 43 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 5:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 22 of 31 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Daniel Marcos | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 2 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 22 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Daniel Marcos | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 7 of 12 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:55 | |
| 3 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 23 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Daniel Marcos | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 10 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 30 of 66 | 45% | 25 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 27 of 62 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Marcos | 17 of 32 | 53% | 5 of 18 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 13 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 4 of 12 | 33% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Marcos | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Montel Jackson | 15 of 28 | 53% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Marcos | 7 of 12 | 58% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Montel Jackson | 11 of 26 | 42% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Marcos | 6 of 13 | 46% | 2 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-205), Marcos (+170)
Round 1
Bantamweights are up again in Des Moines, this time red-hot rising contenders Marcos and Jackson, with Gary Copeland on referee duty. Jackson is southpaw, Marcos orthodox, and they exchange a couple of glancing punches from outside before Marcos closes the distance and clinches with the much taller American. Jackson grounds Marcos with a beautiful foot sweep, and takes top position in Marcos’ guard. He lets “Soncora” up quickly, and they go back to kickboxing, where Marcos continues to try and solve the puzzle of Jackson’s huge height and reach advantages. They clinch again, this time with Marcos’ back against the fence, and Jackson drives his knee into Marcos’ thigh and midsection before they break off and move away from the fence. Marcos rushes forward and pushes Jackson to the fence, where he takes a turn firing short knees as they vie for head position and wrist control. Marcos changes levels, peels Jackson off the fence and takes him down. Marcos is in Jackson’s guard, but only briefly, as Jackson hips out, gives his back up and stands. He turns to face Marcos, completing the escape, just before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Round 2
Marcos comes forward, working to navigate his foe’s reach by springing in with big overhand rights. Marcos jumps in again, but this time he changes levels and completes a takedown in the center of the Octagon. Marcos is in Jackson’s guard, but Jackson will not concede the position, keeping his hips active and looking to get his feet on Marcos’ hips and kick him off. Marcos lets his man up and they go back to work on the feet. Jackson is connecting with a fast, long jab that comes up from near his beltline, while Marcos is keeping his chin tucked and looking for his moment to land a big punch. Marcos steps into the pocket and shoves Jackson to the fence, where they exchange a couple of blows in close before breaking the clinch. Marcos wades right back into range and drives the taller man to the cage again. He locks his hands and, after a moment’s adjustment, hoists Jackson and puts him on the ground. Jackson springs right back to his feet and they move back to the fence. Jackson reverses position and is pushing Marcos into the chain-link at the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Round 3
The final round begins with Marcos landing a nice body kick to the open side. Jackson comes back with a pair of punches, one of which might have grazed Marcos’ right eye in an awkward way, as he comes away guarding that side of his face closely. Jackson moves in and tries for a takedown near the fence, but Marcos sprawls well in close quarters. Marcos goes for a takedown of his own and gets Jackson off his feet, then moves to the back as Jackson gets back up. Marcos works from standing back control for a few moments before Jackson spins out of his grasp and off of the fence. Marcos immediately closes the distance again, bending at the waist and trying to pull Jackson’s hips away from the cage. Jackson turns his back and Marcos takes a rear waistlock, but he can only get off a few knees to the thigh before Jackson escapes again. Jackson comes forward, stalking a suddenly tired-looking Marcos, and gets an easy takedown. As Marcos stands, Jackson snares him in a D’Arce choke, dragging him back to the mat as he does so. Marcos remains calm and defends against the choke, but the final horn sounds seconds later, possibly without “Soncora” having landed a single strike this round. Barring some extreme judging malfeasance, one of the UFC’s two dozen or so undefeated fighters is about to go down.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (30-27 Jackson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (30-27 Jackson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (30-27 Jackson)
The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Daniel Marcos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo goes against the public and picks Daniel Marcos as an underdog. He trusts Marcos's cardio and takedown defense, and believes he can win a close decision similar to his last fight. He suggests a +3.5 spread bet if the odds remain wide.
Big Brady picks Montel Jackson, citing his significant height and reach advantage, power, and wrestling upside. He notes that Jackson's losses came against wrestlers who took him down, but Marcos is not a wrestler; Jackson may get takedowns instead. Brady questions Marcos's ceiling, pointing out close decisions against Adrien Yanez and Davey Grant, where Grant outlanded Marcos. He expects Jackson to win a decision, mixing in wrestling and landing big shots.
Connor picks Marcos, believing his defensive awareness and ability to slip past length will neutralize Jackson's reach. He notes that Jackson's striking is aimless and he has struggled against pressure fighters like Brent Johns and Ricky Simone. Connor thinks Marcos can get inside and land meaningful shots, and that Jackson's lack of process will be exposed. However, he admits Marcos tends to walk a fine line and doesn't control fights completely.
Jackson will shut down Marcos's calf kicking and grappling game. He will land his big power and muscle Marcos, getting a KO finish within 10 minutes.
The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson to win by TKO in the first or second round. He praises Jackson's power, reach, and wrestling defense, noting that he has never been held down. He believes Daniel Marcos lacks the grappling threat and power to trouble Jackson, and that Jackson will find a finish. He thinks Jackson should be a -250 favorite, so -198 is good value.
Zane picks Jackson, citing his size, reach, and fight-changing power as key advantages. He notes that Marcos has never faced a fighter with Jackson's physical attributes and may struggle to get inside. Zane acknowledges that Marcos is skilled and defensively aware, but worries that Jackson's power will be the difference if Marcos can't neutralize the reach. He admits it's a close fight and not confident.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 1 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 1 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-162), Blackshear (+136)
Round 1
The prelims continue as bantamweights meet in the Octagon, with Jackson (13-2, 7-2 UFC) putting together a quietly successful run in the UFC as he enters into his 10th fight. The same cannot be said for Blackshear (14-6-1, 2-2-1 UFC), who hopes to break out of his .500 record with a victory. The two will be joined in the cage by referee Nick Berens, who checks them in as they bump fists. Blackshear lands a leg kick earl y, and Jackson responds with a right hand that loops around the guard. They hand-fight, and Jackson sticks out a front kick.
As Blackshear steps in to attack, Jackson releases a lightning-quick one-two that knocks Blackshear clean off his feet. As Blackshear’s head ricochets off the mat, it is clear he is out cold, and Jackson knows that his work here is done but understands the rules and drops down a few unnecessary punches until Berens leaps in.
While the audience explodes in favor of the ultra-fast knockout, Jackson signals to bring it down a few notches and drops a knee out of concern for his wrecked opponent. Blackshear comes to, although he needs to lean on his coach to remain upright, and Jackson is relieved and goes to embrace his fallen foe. The confident Jackson, who finds himself on a mighty win streak after a vicious knockout, simply tells upcoming adversaries during his post-fight interview that they need to “sign the contract.”
The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Da’Mon Blackshear R1 0:18 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Montel Jackson, citing his superior wrestling background (Olympic Training Facility), power, and speed. He notes that while Da'Mon Blackshear is a good underdog with early wrestling initiation, Montel's offensive wrestling and power should be the difference. Angelo plans to wait for prop bets before placing a wager.
Cody picks Jackson, citing his striking advantage and improved grappling. He notes Blackshear's cardio issues and short notice, and believes Jackson will win by decision or late TKO. He expects Jackson to stuff takedowns and outwork Blackshear.
Daniel Vreeland leans with Da'Mon Blackshear as a plus 130 underdog. He notes that Montel Jackson is talented but inconsistent, often having long periods of inactivity. He thinks Blackshear's pressure and cardio could be factors, though he acknowledges Jackson's high ceiling. He calls it a tough fight to call but prefers the dog.
Montel Jackson has shown improvements in surviving early rounds and taking over in the second and third. Blackshear tends to slow down later in fights. Jackson will keep the fight upright and use his power to finish Blackshear in the second or third round.
Paul picks Jackson but is less confident, citing Blackshear's wrestling threat. He notes Jackson's inactivity but believes his striking and cardio advantage will prevail. He expects a competitive fight and may wait for weigh-ins.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 7 of 22 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Rani Yahya | 1 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 7 of 22 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Rani Yahya | 1 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 7 of 21 | 33% | 1 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rani Yahya | 9 of 21 | 42% | 7 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 7 of 21 | 33% | 1 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rani Yahya | 9 of 21 | 42% | 7 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-560), Yahya (+430)
Round 1
The quintessential “striker vs. grappler” contest rears its head between these two bantamweights, one that also has a storyline of a young, hungry up-and-comer against an aging, storied vet. Owner of 21 submissions without a single knockout to his credit, Yahya (28-10-1, 1 NC; 13-4-1, 1 NC UFC) will attempt to run his win streak to three in this matchup. He will face “Quik” Jackson (12-2, 6-2 UFC), who will be much larger, longer and younger. The third man in the Octagon for this match will be referee Keith Peterson, who clocks the fighters in ahead of their sporting and nonsense-free glove touch. Yahya strikes first with a pair of punches and a low kick, and he spins around before Jackson can reach him. The Brazilian lands with another low kick, and he stays out of range for the lanky Jackson to get to him. Yahya tosses forth one more leg kick for good measure, and he scoots forward to stomp at it from another angle. The strategy is clear for Yahya, who is continuously targeting the lead wheel. Jackson throws a few punches that bounce off the guard and knock his man into the wall, not from damage but rather the force of the strikes. Jackson catches him with a one-two, and Yahya dives forward into a single. Jackson hops back against the fence and elbows Yahya in the side of the dome before getting lifted off the ground. Yahya ends up falling to his back to make sure the fighters hit the ground, and he closes his guard momentarily before fishing for a sweep. Yahya isolates Jackson’s right arm beneath his own armpit and throws a leg up for a potential armlock, and Jackson sits up to get most of the leverage out of the position. Yahya gets popped in the chops to break up the submission, and he pulls on the glove to keep Jackson down but is warned for it. Jackson jumps back up to his feet and rips the body with a kick. Yahya misses with a stomp kick but does reach a right hand over the top, and Jackson does not even register its landing. Jackson hand-fights and throws a high kick that wraps over the guard.
Yahya darts in lunging with his arms outstretched, and “Quik” perfectly counters with a clean left hand over the top that smashes into the veteran’s chin. Yahya falls to his back, in immediate danger, and Jackson senses this and deftly moves over to finish the job with some long, straight punches as he lords over the doomed grappler. As Jackson pounds on his fallen foe, Yahya’s lights go out briefly, and Peterson waves the fight off.
This is a big win for Jackson, who becomes the first fighter to stop Yahya since the Brazilian faced Joseph Benavidez at WEC 45 in 2009 – over seven years before Jackson turned pro.
The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Rani Yahya R1 3:42 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Montel Jackson easily, stating he should defend every takedown from Yahya and light him up on the feet. He notes Yahya's low takedown accuracy (24%) and that he relies on opponents shooting takedowns to get to the ground. He recommends parlaying Jackson.
Big Brady picks Montel Jackson to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Jackson is the biggest favorite on the card and has a huge reach and size advantage over the 38-year-old Yahya. Jackson has a ton of knockdowns and Yahya has been dropped in recent fights. Brady believes Jackson will stuff takedowns, keep the fight on the feet, and knock Yahya down repeatedly until the fight is stopped. He sees this as a terrible matchup for Yahya.
Cody picks Montel Jackson, citing his massive reach and strength advantages. He notes Yahya is old (38), has poor wrestling and striking, and relies on flopping to his back to avoid damage. Cody believes Jackson can keep the fight standing and use his reach to pick Yahya apart, possibly getting a knockout. He mentions a prop on PrizePicks for under 1.5 takedowns for Jackson, as he expects Jackson to avoid grappling.
Connor picks Montel Jackson, believing he is improving despite himself and that his natural athleticism and size will be too much for Yahya. He notes that Jackson's ability to easily shut down takedowns, as seen against Ricky Simon, will be key. However, he acknowledges that Jackson tends to make fights more competitive than needed and that Yahya is a dedicated grappler who can take a mile if given an inch.
Montel Jackson has significant speed and power advantages, and his kicks can keep Yahya at distance. Yahya is a jiu-jitsu specialist who struggles to get takedowns and has poor cardio. Jackson should be able to pick him apart and eventually land a knockout. However, Jackson has lacked killer instinct and has been taken down by grapplers before. If Yahya gets a hold of him, he could grind out a win. Jackson by knockout in the second round is the pick, but with low confidence.
Paul also picks Jackson, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He adds that Yahya's Jiu-Jitsu is good but his wrestling is bad, and Jackson has good takedown defense. Paul notes that judges now favor damage, so even if Yahya gets takedowns, Jackson's striking should win rounds. He expects Jackson to win, possibly by knockout.
The MMA Guru calls this the lock of the card, stating there is no chance Rani Yahya wins. He highlights Montel Jackson's wicked striking and improving skills, and his ability to stuff takedowns with good wrist control. He notes Yahya's age, injuries, and inability to get the fight to the ground. He predicts a KO in the first or second round.
Zane also picks Montel Jackson, agreeing that he is probably too innately good and big for Yahya. He notes that Yahya is self-destructive and puts a ton of energy into grappling, and that Jackson's physicality should allow him to rebuff Yahya's wrestling. Zane mentions that Jackson's ability to just grab a wrist and control an opponent's arm is a huge advantage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 0 | 26 of 126 | 20% | 44 of 156 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Julio Arce | 1 | 48 of 106 | 45% | 64 of 127 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 5:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 9 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Julio Arce | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 | |
| 2 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 15 of 58 | 25% | 25 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julio Arce | 0 | 19 of 46 | 41% | 24 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 | |
| 3 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 7 of 46 | 15% | 10 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julio Arce | 1 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 26 of 126 | 20% | 13 of 102 | 8 of 17 | 5 of 7 | 25 of 124 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Julio Arce | 48 of 106 | 45% | 39 of 95 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 33 of 82 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 19 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 4 of 22 | 18% | 2 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julio Arce | 5 of 17 | 29% | 3 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Montel Jackson | 15 of 58 | 25% | 7 of 47 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julio Arce | 19 of 46 | 41% | 13 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Montel Jackson | 7 of 46 | 15% | 4 of 39 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Julio Arce | 24 of 43 | 55% | 23 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 19 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-200), Arce (+170)
Round 1
Arce was victorious in his first appearance of 2022, while Jackson, who has won five of six UFC outings, will return to the Octagon for the first time in 14 months. Marc Goddard will be the third man in the cage. They touch gloves and we’re underway. Jackson changes levels within the first 30 seconds and shoves Arce into the fence. Jackson lands some knees to the body, but one lands on the cup, which prompts a warning from Goddard but no reset. Jackson thinks about a single-leg but Arce defends, and Jackson lands a short punch to the head instead. The crowd is already getting restless as Jackson continues to grind away against the fence. Goddard urges the combatants to stay busy. Arce can’t get his back off the fence and we’re halfway through the round when Goddard orders a restart in the center of the cage. Arce has a kick to the body partially blocked. He’s cautious, perhaps due to the threat of the Jackson takedown. Arce fires a straight to the body followed by a leg kick. Arce pressures and both men exchange jabs. Arce picks up the pace and fires off an overhand left. Jackson moves in with a right hook. Arce pressures as time winds down, and Jackson defends a takedown in the final 10 seconds. Arce muscles his opponent to the mat just before the horn, however.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Round 2
Arce again takes the center of the cage, and he lands a left hand as he backs Jackson up. An inside leg kick connects for Arce. An outside leg kick lands for Jackson. Arce continues to lead the dance and he moves in behind a right hook, but Jackson lands a counter in response. A right hook connects for Jackson. Another counter right lands for Jackson, who is having more success but isn’t landing in great volume. Jackson connects with a solid right. Arce throws a right hook and Jackson angles out. Jackson is sticking his right hand with some consistency now as Arce pressures. Jackson shoots for a takedown against the fence. He steps around and gets the back of his opponent. Jackson continues to grind away until the horn, mixing in a knee with some dirty boxing.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Round 3
Arce comes out throwing combinations, but it’s Jackson who lands a right hand during an initial exchange. Moments later, Jackson puts Arce on his back with a stiff jab. Jackson assumes top position and works to land punches from inside Arce’s guard. Arce seems to have recovered, and he’s very active with his guard. Jackson is struggling to control the hips, and Arce nearly frames a triangle. Jackson works to stack Arce, but he is unable to pass at the 2:30 mark of the round. Arce sits up and then stands. Arce has some swelling under his left eye. Arce is not finding the range on his punches. Jackson finds an opening a tags Arce with a right hand. Arce pressures forward and whiffs on some looping punches. Arce moves in with punches and Jackson ties him up, shoving his foe into the fence. Jackson lands a short right on the break. Jackson with a straight left in the waning seconds, and he dodges a final Arce offering before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (29-28 Jackson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (29-28 Jackson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (29-28 Jackson)
The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Julia Arce via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo believes Julio Arce is the better technical striker but has a suspect chin. He trusts Montel Jackson's wrestling and power, noting that Jackson's only losses are to wrestlers who out-grappled him. He thinks Jackson will win by using his takedowns and power, rather than trying to out-strike Arce. He mentions that the takedown prop lines will be interesting and that he will likely bet on Jackson's takedowns.
Big Brady picks Montel Jackson to win by decision. He highlights Jackson's size, reach, power (10 knockdowns in UFC), and wrestling (over 4 takedowns per 15 minutes at 78% accuracy). He notes Arce has good takedown defense (94%) but hasn't faced many wrestlers. He believes Jackson will mix takedowns and land the bigger shots, winning a decision. He also mentions Jackson's youth and power advantage.
Cody picks Arce, citing his excellent footwork, volume, and 94% takedown defense. He notes that Jackson has not fought top competition and that Arce's movement and striking should give Jackson trouble. Cody thinks if Jackson can't take Arce down, Arce will outpoint him. He is not highly confident but sees value at plus money.
Connor picks Arce, noting that Jackson has not improved in four years and lacks depth in his grappling and striking. He points out that Arce is a complete fighter with sharp footwork and counters, and that Jackson's wrestling is not good enough to hold Arce down. Connor also mentions that Arce has been getting better and has faced higher-level competition.
Daniel Levi picks Montel Jackson, citing his immense talent, power, wrestling, and physical attributes. He notes that Jackson has knockout power and a reach advantage, but his work ethic is questionable. Levi believes if Jackson shows up focused, he can dominate. He respects Arce's point-fighting style but thinks Jackson's power and wrestling will be the difference.
The host believes Arce is the better technical striker with superior footwork and kicks, and his 94% takedown defense should keep the fight standing. He questions Jackson's competition level, noting his wins are over lower-tier opponents and he struggles against better grapplers. Arce's output and volume should frustrate Jackson, leading to a decision win. The host acknowledges Arce's durability concerns but sees value at +175.
Paul also leans towards Arce, agreeing with Cody's analysis. He notes that Jackson is enormous for the weight class and that Arce will have to eat shots to get inside, but if Arce keeps the fight standing, it should be close to a pick'em. Paul is not confident but goes with Arce.
The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson, citing his underrated prospect status, massive hands, and physical advantages like a 5.5-inch reach advantage. He believes Jackson can outwork Arce on the feet and predicts a close split decision 29-28. He notes Jackson's grappling defense against good grapplers like Brett Johns and Ricky Simon.
Zane picks Arce, emphasizing that Jackson's striking is one-dimensional and he lacks confidence in it. He notes that Arce's consistent style and ability to handle pressure fighters like Daniel Santos make him a good bet. Zane also points out that Jackson's wins have come against lower-level competition, while Arce has fought tougher opponents.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 4 | 25 of 43 | 58% | 91 of 117 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 10:03 |
| JP Buys | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 39 of 60 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 3 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 27 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:36 |
| JP Buys | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 9 of 15 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Montel Jackson | 2 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 21 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:07 |
| JP Buys | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Montel Jackson | 2 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 43 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
| JP Buys | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 16 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 25 of 43 | 58% | 18 of 36 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 17 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 18 |
| JP Buys | 8 of 24 | 33% | 3 of 10 | 4 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 8 of 12 | 66% | 4 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 5 |
| JP Buys | 3 of 8 | 37% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Montel Jackson | 7 of 12 | 58% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 3 |
| JP Buys | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Montel Jackson | 10 of 19 | 52% | 9 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 |
| JP Buys | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 of 4 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Montel Jackson as he is well-rounded with power, striking, and wrestling. He notes JP Buys has a path via wrestling but Montel is too good everywhere. He does not like the moneyline at -700 but has a bet on over 1.5 rounds because he thinks Buys will survive early and make it past the first round and a half.
Big Brady is very confident in Montel Jackson, citing huge size and reach advantages. He notes JP Buys is moving up a weight class on short notice and has a history of gassing out. He predicts Jackson will finish Buys in the second round, either by knockout or submission, as Buys has never been to a decision.
Cody is very confident in Jackson, citing his size, power, and improved takedown defense. He notes that JP Buys is undersized, on short notice, and failed to wrestle in his UFC debut. Cody believes Jackson will keep the fight standing and land a knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Montel Jackson to finish JP Buys. He believes Jackson has top-five potential and skills, despite past criticism of his mentality. He notes Buys is composed but lacks the goods, and Jackson's path to victory is finishing him. He advises against betting the moneyline at -650 and suggests looking at props like inside distance.
Preet picks Montel Jackson to win, expecting a finish. He notes Jackson has better striking and power, while Buys is fragile and tends to quit when pressured. He likes the fight doesn't go to decision at -200 and Jackson by KO at +105.
Paul has Jackson in his parlay, noting his physical advantages and Buys' lack of wrestling. He believes Jackson's power and full camp will be decisive. Paul mentions he bet the over 1.5 rounds as well.
The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson to win by first-round KO, calling it the 'stupidest decision' for JP Buys to take this fight. He emphasizes Jackson's size, power, and grappling advantage, noting he shut down Brett Johns' grappling. He predicts Jackson will land a big shot and finish Buys early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 2 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Jesse Strader | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 2 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Jesse Strader | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montel Jackson | 15 of 26 | 57% | 11 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 10 |
| Jesse Strader | 14 of 25 | 56% | 3 of 7 | 3 of 7 | 8 of 11 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montel Jackson | 15 of 26 | 57% | 11 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 10 |
| Jesse Strader | 14 of 25 | 56% | 3 of 7 | 3 of 7 | 8 of 11 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The next fight of the night comes at a 138-pound catchweight when a fighter missed weight. “Quik” Jackson (9-2, 3-2 UFC) will look to quick work of Strader (5-1, 0-0 UFC) and make the newcomer pay for missing the mark by 1.5 pounds. Referee Keith Peterson has slain all the nonsense in the building, and the two touch gloves before throwing down. Strader backs off and chips at his opponent with several leg kicks, as Jackson is content to march him down without throwing anything. Strader keeps landing a kick or two low, until Jackson winds up with a booming head kick. It barely gets blocked, and he chains the kick into a leg kick that surprises Strader. The newcomer targets the body and legs indiscriminately, as Jackson aims single kicks in response. “Sui Generis” lets fly kick after hacking kick, and Jackson is tired of it and winds up a huge right hand. Strader ducks it, and Jackson follows it with a knee to the chest and a huge right hand that puts Strader down hard. “Quik” chases after him with punches, but the newcomer jumps back to his feet and swings back to get Jackson to back off.
Jackson bites down on his gumshield, wings a pair of nasty punches and levels Strader once more. “Sui Generis” slumps down into the corner between the fencing and the canvas, and Jackson lords over him dropping bombs. “Quik” continues to pour it on with fast but devastating punches until Peterson has seen enough.
That was quick.
The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Jesse Strader R1 1:58 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady is very confident in Montel Jackson, calling him the biggest favorite on the card for good reason. He notes Jackson is a much better fighter with a significant skill advantage, while Strader is green and has fought low-level competition. Brady expects Jackson to win by first-round knockout, as Strader has been hurt by lesser opponents and Jackson can pick him apart or take him down.
Daniel Levi picks Montel Jackson confidently, stating Strader is over his head. He worries about Jackson's focus and past stalling but expects a dominant finish, likely by knockout or submission. He emphasizes that Jackson's talent should shine against this level of competition.
Montel Jackson has all the tools: great wrestling, sneaky submission game, improving striking and cardio. He uses his range well and has crazy grip strength. Jesse Strader throws bombs and has power, but his only path is a KO. Jackson should get the takedown and eventually lock up a submission. The line is too wide at -650, but Jackson wins handily.
The MMA Guru calls Montel Jackson the lock of the card. He praises Jackson's underrated prospect status, giant hands, and patience. He expects Jackson to weather Strader's early aggression and finish him by second-round TKO. He notes Strader is a good fighter with quick finishes but doesn't see him finishing Jackson.
Brian Kelleher - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Gibson | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 18 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 2:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Gibson | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 18 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 2:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Gibson | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 13 of 24 | 54% | 9 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Gibson | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 13 of 24 | 54% | 9 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gibson (-205), Kelleher (+170)
Round 1
Rounding out the rocky prelims is an aging 135er with a .500 record in the promotion against a fellow fighter over the age of 35 a loss away from reaching the dreaded “Sinosic Line.” Gibson (19-10, 1-5 UFC) is not the only fighter to sport this record of 1-5 with the potential to go 1-6 tonight, but more on that later. He battles the hyper-aggressive Kelleher (24-15, 8-8 UFC), and this one has the potential of ending in the blink of an eye. Referee Kerry Hatley is ready for whatever happens next, and that is a touch of gloves. Kelleher immediately goes on the offensive with a leg kick and a front kick. Gibson gives him back an overhand right to make Kelleher take a funny step back, and he connects with two more punches that make Kelleher turn away and have to recover. Kelleher gets back to the middle of the cage and kicks a few more times, and he is reached with a front kick by “The Renegade.” Gibson connects with a calf kick, and he misses with a one-two. Kelleher races forward swinging fists, and Gibson grabs hold of him and manages to take his back standing to wrench him down to a knee. Kelleher pops back up, but the second effort for Gibson succeeds. Kelleher tries to set up a guillotine choke, and Gibson frees himself and assumes top position. Kelleher fights his way back to his feet in a hurry, and Gibson grinds on him as he looks for a mat return. Gibson succeeds in putting Kelleher down for a second, only for “Boom” to explode to his feet again. Kelleher hand-fights to spin out but eats a knee on the break. Gibson races after him with an uppercut and a slashing elbow, and he pushes Kelleher to the fence. Kelleher welcomes him with a knee, and Gibson gives him a few back. Kelleher turns eats an elbow that drops him to a knee, but Kelleher recovers and pursues a takedown. Gibson turns him away and attacks for his own takedown, leading to Kelleher jumping guard for a guillotine choke.
“The Renegade” breaks out of the choke and moves into half guard, where he almost instantly locks down an arm-triangle choke. Kelleher is stuck in a precarious position, and when he tries to fight out of it, he finds that Gibson is an immovable stone on his body. Kelleher surrenders before going out,
and tonight has its first finish. Gibson earns his first victory since his first stint in the promotion in 2014, and he is elated to get his hand raised in the Octagon for the second time.
The Official Result
Cody Gibson def. Brian Kelleher R1 3:58 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Cody Gibson because he is the more focused fighter with length and cardio, while Brian Kelleher is past his prime and on a three-fight skid. However, he is not confident at the favorite price and notes that Kelleher's losses have been to top competition. He considers an inside the distance/decision no action bet on Gibson.
Cody picks Gibson, citing his size advantage (5'10" reach vs 5'6"), durability, and volume. He notes Kelleher's age (38), neck injury, and recent inactivity. He thinks Gibson can outwork Kelleher and that Kelleher's path to victory via guillotine is unlikely. He calls both fighters 'expired milk' but leans Gibson.
Daniel Vreeland reluctantly picks Brian Kelleher, despite initially favoring Cody Gibson. He notes Gibson's tendency to fade in fights, citing the Ray Borg and Brad Katona fights where Gibson was winning early but fell apart. Vreeland believes Kelleher can survive early and take over late, possibly by submission or TKO.
Gibson is a favorite at -185. He has a 4-inch height and 7-inch reach advantage, which he can use to keep Kelleher at bay with his boxing and kicks. Kelleher is on a three-fight losing streak and approaching 38, showing signs of decline. Gibson needs to be wary of Kelleher's guillotine, but he should be able to dictate the pace and win a decision.
Paul also picks Gibson, agreeing that wrestling will be negated and that Gibson's volume will be key. He notes Gibson's close fight with Brad Katona where he landed 164 significant strikes. He thinks Kelleher's guillotine is a threat but not enough to overcome Gibson's output.
The MMA Guru picks Cody Gibson despite previously saying he'd never pick him again. He notes Gibson might be able to hurt Kelleher, who is 37 and has been inactive with multiple neck surgeries. He points to Kelleher's recent first-round losses to Umar Nurmagomedov, Cody Garbrandt, and Mario Bautista, and questions his dedication. Gibson's close fight with Miles Johns is seen as a positive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 1 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 1 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 20 of 41 | 48% | 16 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 35 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 17 of 25 | 68% | 9 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 20 of 41 | 48% | 16 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 35 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 17 of 25 | 68% | 9 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Cody Garbrandt, stating he should dominate everywhere, but worries about his chin and tendency to brawl. He notes that if Cody shows patience, he is a confident pick. He is unsure about betting due to chin concerns.
Big Brady picks Brian Kelleher to win by knockout, despite acknowledging Garbrandt is more skilled. He notes Garbrandt's chin issues (4 KO losses) and washed performances, while Kelleher has power and a guillotine threat. Brady believes Kelleher will force exchanges and land a big shot, putting Garbrandt out. He also notes Garbrandt has zero submissions, so a sub win is unlikely.
Cody picks Garbrandt, arguing that he is better in every aspect of martial arts except durability. He notes that Kelleher's only path is a knockout, but Kelleher has only two KO wins in six years. Cody believes Garbrandt will fight smart behind his jab and potentially win by decision or finish. He acknowledges the chin concern but thinks Kelleher is not the guy to exploit it.
Lucrative James picks Brian Kelleher as the underdog. After rewatching Cody Garbrandt's last fight against Trevin Jones, he saw Cody was hesitant, got wobbled, and taken down multiple times. He believes Cody's chin issues could resurface if Kelleher catches him. He acknowledges Kelleher's age (37) and two-fight losing streak but thinks Cody is not a minus 250 fighter.
The host is high on Kelleher as a plus 185 underdog, questioning how Garbrandt can be such a heavy favorite given his recent tentative style and chin issues. He believes Kelleher's aggression, durability, and grappling edge will be key. He expects Kelleher to crash the pocket, land big shots, and possibly finish Garbrandt. The only concern is Kelleher returning from neck surgery, but he thinks even 70% of Kelleher is enough to pull the upset.
Paul picks Garbrandt, stating that skill for skill, this fight is not competitive. He notes that Garbrandt is much faster on the feet and that Kelleher is not a murderous power puncher. Paul points to Garbrandt's last fight against Trevin Jones where he fought smart and stayed out of trouble. He believes Garbrandt will box Kelleher up and potentially win by decision or TKO.
The Guru picks Cody Garbrandt over Brian Kelleher, noting Kelleher's recent losses and decline. He believes the matchup is designed for Garbrandt to get a KO win on a big card. He predicts Garbrandt will win by TKO in the second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 6 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 6 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 6 of 17 | 35% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 6 of 17 | 35% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Brian Kelleher in a tough, close fight. He notes both fighters are similar busy strikers who can grapple, but gives the edge to Kelleher's experience and physicality at 135 pounds. His main worry is Kelleher's negative striking differential, but he believes if Kelleher brings the same grappling he showed against Kevin Crume or Domingo Pilarte, he gets the win. He expects a razor-thin decision.
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by decision. He highlights Bautista's significant size and reach advantages (3-inch height, 5-inch reach), superior striking, and underrated grappling. He notes that Kelleher has been submitted seven times and Bautista has submission skills, but expects the fight to stay standing where Bautista's youth and size will be decisive. He mentions Kelleher's durability (only one KO in 37 fights) but sees Bautista winning a decision.
Cody thinks Bautista is dynamic with good striking and wrestling. He notes Kelleher relies on takedowns and if he can't take Bautista down, he'll be out struck. He expects Bautista to win a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, adding nothing to dispute.
The host picks Mario Bautista, noting Brian Kelleher looks old and slow at 35. He believes Bautista has good grappling and won't be exposed there, and that Kelleher struggles against step-up competition. He predicts a third-round TKO for Bautista, citing Bautista's training with Sean O'Malley and other top bantamweights.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 1 of 19 | 5% | 1 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 18 of 26 | 69% | 21 of 29 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 1 of 19 | 5% | 1 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 18 of 26 | 69% | 21 of 29 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 1 of 19 | 5% | 0 of 13 | 0 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 18 of 26 | 69% | 9 of 15 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 1 of 19 | 5% | 0 of 13 | 0 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 18 of 26 | 69% | 9 of 15 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Umar confidently, calling him a clear pick and a parlay piece. He highlights Umar's fantastic chain wrestling and constant pressure. He notes Kelleher doesn't have one-punch KO power, so even if Umar is hittable, it won't matter. He mentions the betting line movement favoring Umar.
Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by submission in the second round. He is very high on Umar's skills, noting his fast striking, good wrestling, and scrambling ability. Brady points out that Kelleher has been submitted six times and has poor takedown defense (60%). He believes Umar will be able to take Kelleher down and submit him, especially given Kelleher's tendency to give up takedowns and go for guillotines. Brady also notes Umar's youth and potential for improvement.
Cody is extremely high on Umar, calling him a future champion. He praises Umar's striking, takedown entries, and pace. He bet the under 2.5 rounds at +130, expecting an early finish. Cody notes Kelleher's only path is a guillotine, but Umar is too well-rounded and will dominate everywhere.
Daniel Levi picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by decision. He praises Umar's kicking game and grappling, and believes Kelleher will be outmatched. He notes that Kelleher is a tough veteran but Umar is too much. He predicts Umar will win a decision, possibly a dominant one.
Nurmagomedov is a well-rounded fighter with excellent striking and grappling. Kelleher's only path is a knockout, but Nurmagomedov will use his kicks to maintain distance and then take the fight to the ground where he is dominant. Kelleher is durable and has good submission defense, but Nurmagomedov should control the fight and win a decision. The minus 675 is too steep for parlays, but Nurmagomedov via decision is a solid prop.
Paul echoes Cody's sentiment, calling Umar the complete package with elite wrestling and striking. He notes Umar's performance against Sergey Morozov was dominant and his pace is relentless. Paul believes Kelleher's only chance is to catch Umar in a guillotine, but Umar is too skilled. He plans to include Umar in a parlay with Colby.
The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov over Brian Kelleher, calling it a no-brainer. He highlights Nurmagomedov's dominant win over Sergey Morozov and sees him as a rising threat in the bantamweight division. He criticizes Kelleher's recent performance against Kevin Croom, noting he looked slow and old. He predicts Nurmagomedov will out-strike Kelleher early, take his back, and secure a rear-naked choke in the second round, similar to his debut finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Kelleher | 1 | 38 of 77 | 49% | 67 of 123 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 6:26 |
| Kevin Croom | 0 | 60 of 174 | 34% | 83 of 206 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Kelleher | 1 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 15 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Kevin Croom | 0 | 33 of 88 | 37% | 43 of 104 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 2 | Brian Kelleher | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 22 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Kevin Croom | 0 | 22 of 72 | 30% | 34 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Brian Kelleher | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 30 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Kevin Croom | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Kelleher | 38 of 77 | 49% | 25 of 58 | 12 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 25 of 58 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 14 |
| Kevin Croom | 60 of 174 | 34% | 36 of 141 | 11 of 16 | 13 of 17 | 58 of 168 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Kelleher | 11 of 29 | 37% | 7 of 24 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Croom | 33 of 88 | 37% | 17 of 68 | 6 of 8 | 10 of 12 | 32 of 84 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brian Kelleher | 14 of 25 | 56% | 8 of 15 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Kevin Croom | 22 of 72 | 30% | 14 of 61 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 22 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brian Kelleher | 13 of 23 | 56% | 10 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 12 |
| Kevin Croom | 5 of 14 | 35% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady notes the significant age and reach advantage for Croom, who is 26 and has a 5-inch reach edge. He praises Croom's wrestling and grappling, and expects him to exploit Kelleher's 59% takedown defense. He predicts Croom will win a decision, though he acknowledges Kelleher is dangerous with submissions off his back.
Cody picks Kakhramonov, highlighting his wrestling, size, and cardio. He notes Kelleher's wrestling won't be effective and Kakhramonov's striking is solid. He expects Kakhramonov to win by decision or TKO. He mentions Kakhramonov's bright future.
Daniel Levi picks Brian Kelleher, noting that Croom took the fight on two weeks' notice and tends to fade as fights progress. He acknowledges Croom's dangerous guillotine early, but believes Kelleher's durability and cardio will allow him to take over in later rounds. Levi also mentions Kelleher's improved grappling, as seen in his last fight against Domingo Pilarte where he used takedowns to control the fight.
The host picks Brian Kelleher, citing his veteran experience and takedown defense against the grappler Kakaromanov. He expects Kelleher to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually knocking out Kakaromanov. The host notes Kakaromanov's striking is still developing and that Kelleher's power and pressure will be too much. He also mentions the under 2.5 rounds as a good bet.
Paul picks Kakhramonov, citing his impressive debut, wrestling base, and size advantage. He notes Kelleher's path is a guillotine, but Kakhramonov's wrestling should nullify that. He expects Kakhramonov to win via decision or late TKO. He calls -155 a fair price.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Croom (Saidyokub Kakhramonov) to win by third-round submission. He trusts Croom's stand-up and grappling awareness, noting that he handled Trevin Jones well and has good takedown defense. He believes Kelleher will struggle to get takedowns and will slow down as the fight goes on, leading to a desperate shot that Croom will capitalize on with a guillotine or D'Arce choke. He predicts Croom will defend takedowns early, then submit Kelleher in the third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 28 of 40 | 70% | 236 of 279 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 12:49 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 117 of 159 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Kelleher | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 68 of 89 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 35 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brian Kelleher | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 53 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 3:08 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 27 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:29 | |
| 3 | Brian Kelleher | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 115 of 126 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:51 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 55 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Kelleher | 28 of 40 | 70% | 24 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 37 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 3 of 11 | 27% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Kelleher | 13 of 19 | 68% | 11 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 18 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brian Kelleher | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Brian Kelleher | 11 of 13 | 84% | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 12 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Brian Kelleher, citing a massive gap in level of competition. He notes Kelleher has fought and lost to top bantamweights, while Pilarte has been dominated by lower-level fighters. He believes Kelleher is the better striker and grappler, despite Pilarte's reach advantage. He predicts a third-round knockout.
Cody picks Kelleher, expecting him to win inside the distance. He notes Kelleher's guillotine threat but worries about the reach disadvantage and weight cut. He believes Kelleher's superior striking and wrestling will be enough.
Kelleher is the much better striker with good volume and leg kicks. Pilarte has rudimentary striking, poor cardio, and has been close to being finished in recent fights. Kelleher's guillotine threat will deter takedowns. I'm picking Kelleher inside the distance, likely by knockout in the second round.
Paul picks Kelleher, citing his durability and better striking and wrestling. He notes Pilarte's weight cut issues and long layoff, and believes Kelleher can avoid Pilarte's submissions. However, he is not fully confident due to Kelleher's weight cut complaints.
The MMA Guru picks Brian Kelleher to win by guillotine choke in the first round. He criticizes Pilarte as a weight bully with a weak chin and poor cardio. He expects Kelleher to rock Pilarte with hooks, then catch him in a guillotine when Pilarte shoots for a single leg. He emphasizes Kelleher's toughness and finishing ability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ray Rodriguez | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Kelleher | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ray Rodriguez | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Kelleher | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ray Rodriguez | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Kelleher | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ray Rodriguez | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Kelleher, citing his durability (only one KO loss in 32 fights) and experience. He thinks Kelleher can take a takedown and submit Natividad. He notes Natividad is a brawler who gets hit a lot and has been KO'd in 9 seconds before. He predicts a second-round submission.
Daniel Levi picks Brian Kelleher by guillotine finish. He notes that Kelleher is experienced and tends to beat lower-level opponents, but warns that Kelleher is unreliable as a big favorite. He acknowledges that newcomer Kevin Natividad has power and could upset if Kelleher underestimates him, but ultimately sides with Kelleher's experience.
The host picks Kelleher to win by first-round KO. He cites Kelleher's veteran experience, solid chin, and takedown defense. He notes Natividad's only loss was a 9-second KO and expects Kelleher to land a knockout punch early.
The MMA Guru picks Brian Kelleher, noting that his opponent Kevin Natividad (originally Ray Rodriguez was scheduled but changed) has a padded record with weak competition. He believes Kelleher's experience against top fighters will prevail, and expects a second-round submission. He mentions Kelleher's losses to high-level opponents and his ability to survive early pressure.
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