UFC Fight Night: dos Santos vs. Ivanov · Jul 14, 2018 · Featherweight · Completed
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Age 37
Height 5' 6"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 42
Height 5' 10"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Alexander Volkanovski
5.99 SLpM
57.0% Str. Acc.
3.31 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
1.63 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Darren Elkins
3.4 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
3.34 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
2.87 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
56.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Alexander Volkanovski - Fight History
WIN vs Diego Lopes
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkanovski 0 98 of 160 61% 112 of 178 2 of 7 28% 1 0 2:49
Diego Lopes 0 70 of 158 44% 74 of 162 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkanovski 0 12 of 27 44% 17 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:27
Diego Lopes 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkanovski 0 19 of 30 63% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Diego Lopes 0 16 of 34 47% 19 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:39
3 Alexander Volkanovski 0 21 of 35 60% 21 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Diego Lopes 0 17 of 38 44% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Alexander Volkanovski 0 25 of 44 56% 25 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Diego Lopes 0 22 of 48 45% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Alexander Volkanovski 0 21 of 24 87% 29 of 34 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:22
Diego Lopes 0 3 of 10 30% 4 of 11 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkanovski 98 of 160 61% 72 of 118 3 of 6 23 of 36 88 of 149 3 of 4 7 of 7
Diego Lopes 70 of 158 44% 33 of 98 17 of 33 20 of 27 66 of 152 3 of 4 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkanovski 12 of 27 44% 5 of 12 0 of 1 7 of 14 12 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 12 of 28 42% 3 of 15 2 of 5 7 of 8 12 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkanovski 19 of 30 63% 13 of 20 0 of 2 6 of 8 19 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 16 of 34 47% 9 of 23 3 of 5 4 of 6 15 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Alexander Volkanovski 21 of 35 60% 21 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 2 21 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 17 of 38 44% 8 of 24 5 of 8 4 of 6 15 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Alexander Volkanovski 25 of 44 56% 15 of 33 2 of 2 8 of 9 25 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 22 of 48 45% 10 of 29 7 of 13 5 of 6 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Alexander Volkanovski 21 of 24 87% 18 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 11 of 14 3 of 3 7 of 7
Diego Lopes 3 of 10 30% 3 of 7 0 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Angelo picks Volkanovski to win the rematch, citing his insane cardio, high fight IQ, and ability to game plan. He believes Volkanovski will wrestle more this time to take away Diego's distance, where he landed his best shots. Angelo acknowledges Diego's dangerous grappling and striking, and notes that Diego was close to finishing Volkanovski in the first fight. He suggests a prop bet on Diego Lopes winning inside the distance, as you get a refund if he doesn't and get paid if he does.

Diego Lopes wins inside the distance (refund if not)
"The bet has always and will always be Diego Lopez wins inside the distance because you get a refund if he doesn't and you get paid if he does."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Big Brady leans toward Diego Lopes for the upset, citing that Lopes needs to be more aggressive and make it a 'car crash' to touch Volkanovski's chin, which has been cracked. He notes Lopes dropped Volkanovski in the first fight and started turning it on in the later rounds. However, he acknowledges Volkanovski wins a decision 90% of the time if it goes the distance, so Lopes must finish. Brady predicts a second-round knockout for Lopes.

Lopes by KO in round 2
"I'm going to lean Lopez here. I'm going to say he does touch the chin. ... Give me Lopez here by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Cody believes Volkanovski will win a decision similar to the first fight, citing his superior striking volume and takedown defense. He notes that Volkanovski landed 158 significant strikes in the first fight and that Lopes' ground game was ineffective. He acknowledges Volkanovski's age and potential decline but sees no evidence of regression yet. He picks Volkanovski by decision.

Volkanovski by decision +170
"I still think Vulcanoski does enough to get the job done so one I do have Vulk but two I don't think he knocks out Lopez and I don't think he's miss Lopez so it's a vulk by decision play …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Connor picks Diego Lopes because he believes that Volkanovski is older and more vulnerable, and that Lopes has a puncher's chance that becomes more likely the more times they fight. He notes that Lopes is insanely fast and durable, and that Volkanovski's defensive decisions have worsened. However, he acknowledges that Volkanovski is still the more technical fighter and that Lopes could easily lose.

Odds: Lopes +124, Volkanovski -145. Connor mentions the odds are a 'loaded coin' and that Lopes is bound to win one of these matchups eventually.
"I'm going to pick him at this point, just because I think that the UFC is literally like, if he loses, they're literally going to do it again."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Daniel Vreeland picks Volkanovski to outclass Lopes again, citing his superior fight IQ, feinting game, and all-around skills. He notes that Lopes needs a finish to win, as he has a negative record in decisions, but Volkanovski is tough to put away and has already proven he can handle Lopes' best shots. Vreeland acknowledges Lopes' dangerous finishing ability but believes Volkanovski's adjustments and experience will prevail.

"I think Vulk's going to pick this man apart. I really do."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

James picks Diego Lopes to win the rematch, citing Lopes' momentum from his KO of Jean Silva, improved camp, and admission of ego issues in the first fight. He believes Lopes will push a higher pace and force pocket exchanges where he can land a knockout. James notes Volkanovski's age and potential decline, and that the close odds (Volk -155) suggest the fight is a toss-up. He also mentions Lopes' durability and submission threat.

"I'm actually going to pick Diego Lopez for this one. I'm going to pick him for the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski's fight IQ and tactical approach will allow him to execute a game plan similar to their first fight: jab, leg kick, takedowns to disrupt Lopes' rhythm. He out-struck Lopes 158 to 63 in their first bout, landing at 61% in rounds three and five. Lopes may be more aggressive this time, but Volkanovski's submission defense and ability to stick and move should neutralize that. The host notes that if Lopes wins, it likely comes by knockout, but he favors the better overall fighter. He suggests waiting for better odds on Volkanovski during fight week.

Volkanovski by decision likely; Lopes by knockout if he wins; wait for better odds on Volkanovski
"I'm going to go Alexander Vulcganowski and still featherweight champion Mr. Vulcanowski."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Paul argues that Volkanovski clearly won the first fight 4-1 and that the line is too close given that result. He acknowledges Lopes' improvements and Volkanovski's age but believes the champion's skills and experience will prevail. He sees a similar outcome, possibly a 48-47 decision.

"I just watched this fight. It was fairly decisive going one way."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Diego Lopes

The Guru picks Diego Lopes by TKO in round two, citing his performance in the first fight where he dropped Volkanovski. He believes Volkanovski's age, layoff, and lack of motivation will be factors, while Lopes has improved and has a lottery ticket mentality. He expects Lopes to finish him this time.

TKO in round two
"I'm going to go with Diego Lopez to put away Alexander Vulcganowski by TKO in this fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Zane picks Volkanovski, arguing that Lopez has atrocious defense and poor footwork, and that Volkanovski will walk him into jabs and overhand rights. He notes that Lopez might win with a puncher's chance due to his durability and speed, but believes Volkanovski's technical superiority will prevail. He also points out that Lopez is an opportunist who starts hot but fades if he doesn't get an early finish.

Odds: Volkanovski -145, Lopes +124. Zane mentions the odds but does not make a betting recommendation.
"Lopez is not a good game planner. He has atrocious defense and poor footwork. Volkanovski is going to walk him into jabs and overhand rights."
WIN vs Diego Lopes
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkanovski 0 158 of 259 61% 165 of 266 1 of 11 9% 0 0 1:18
Diego Lopes 1 63 of 194 32% 71 of 203 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkanovski 0 27 of 44 61% 31 of 48 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:58
Diego Lopes 0 8 of 22 36% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Alexander Volkanovski 0 24 of 52 46% 27 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Diego Lopes 1 16 of 33 48% 17 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Alexander Volkanovski 0 25 of 45 55% 25 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Diego Lopes 0 9 of 37 24% 9 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Alexander Volkanovski 0 39 of 57 68% 39 of 57 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Diego Lopes 0 16 of 43 37% 16 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Alexander Volkanovski 0 43 of 61 70% 43 of 61 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Diego Lopes 0 14 of 59 23% 18 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkanovski 158 of 259 61% 136 of 225 8 of 14 14 of 20 142 of 237 7 of 11 9 of 11
Diego Lopes 63 of 194 32% 49 of 171 7 of 13 7 of 10 59 of 185 3 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkanovski 27 of 44 61% 21 of 34 2 of 4 4 of 6 14 of 27 4 of 6 9 of 11
Diego Lopes 8 of 22 36% 5 of 16 1 of 2 2 of 4 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkanovski 24 of 52 46% 18 of 42 0 of 3 6 of 7 24 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 16 of 33 48% 15 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Alexander Volkanovski 25 of 45 55% 21 of 38 1 of 2 3 of 5 25 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 9 of 37 24% 7 of 33 1 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Alexander Volkanovski 39 of 57 68% 36 of 53 2 of 2 1 of 2 39 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 16 of 43 37% 13 of 37 2 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 39 2 of 4 0 of 0
5 Alexander Volkanovski 43 of 61 70% 40 of 58 3 of 3 0 of 0 40 of 56 3 of 5 0 of 0
Diego Lopes 14 of 59 23% 9 of 53 2 of 2 3 of 4 13 of 55 1 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Featherweight Title Fight: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkanovski (-155), Lopes (+130)

Round 1
In the UFC 314 headliner in April 2025, Volkanovski (27-4, 14-3 UFC) took Lopes (27-7, 6-2 UFC) to task across 25 minutes, with the Brazilian claiming one round on two official scorecards when it all wrapped up. With promotional matchmakers seemingly out of ideas or options, the Lobo Gym MMA product only needed a single win to get another crack at gold, while it serves as an immediate rematch for the Aussie. No matter the thoughts on the pairing, it is here now, and fans should appreciate “The Great” for as long as we have him. Walking out to “Down Under” by Men at Work, he holds the arena in the palm of his hand. Referee Marc Goddard receives the final assignment today and brings the two 145ers to the center of the cage, issuing their instructions and setting them loose after their respectful fist bump. It’s all up to them now.
Volkanovski moves directly to the center of the cage, circling towards the power right hand of Lopes. Volkanovski lands first with a low kick, and Lopes answers back. Chants in favor of the Aussie boom through the building. Volkanovski stays light on his feet, never staying on one place, and he switches stances a few times and absorbs a kick to the liver. Lopes intercepts him with a low kick, and he takes one in response. Volkanovski connects with a hard low kick, and Lopes retaliates with a head kick that gets blocked. Volkanovski shoots, and Lopes tosses him aside and tags him with a right hand while Volkanovski resets. Lopes bounces on his heels and absorbs a low kick and one to the midsection, and neither man seems ready to fully commit after two minutes. Volkanovski loads up on a right hand, and he rushes at Lopes to toss out two more big right hands. The Aussie checks a kick, and he parries a jab.
Lopes constantly changes stances, firing off his high kick while in southpaw. Volkanovski kicks him on the inner calf, and he chips away on the other side before Lopes can get to him. Volkanovski gets in and out with his low kick, and Lopes tries and fails to counter him back. Volkanovski pecks out with a jab, and he shoots for a speedy double and presses Lopes to the wall. “The Great” clasps his hands and looks to elevate Lopes, and he releases his grip and starts slugging Lopes with his right hand. Lopes frames off with his knee, and he breaks off and gets sideswiped with a right hand. Volkanovski clips Lopes with a flush right hand, who shakes his head at him. Volkanovski connects with another right, and Lopes flashes a grin but cannot deny he got tagged. Lopes drills the champ with a stern body kick right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves to get started again, and this time, Lopes positions himself in the center of the cage right off the bat. Volkanovski measures with a jab out of range, and he leans back as a high kick soars past him. Volkanovski slips to the side when taking a kick, and he dings Lopes twice and has a kick bounce into the cup. Lopes does not cry foul, and they continue fighting. Volkanovski works both sides of the lead leg, and he jabs to keep Lopes busy. Lopes chambers and fires a leg kick to the back leg, and they whip additional leg kicks at one another. Lopes slowly pressures forward, scoring a low kick and crashing the pocket to sneak in a right hand.
Lopes charges in, and Volkanovski ducks away and gets off a left hand on the way. Lopes lands a hard leg kick and a right hand, and Volkanovski counters him as he takes a side step. Lopes flashes his own jab, forcing Volkanovski to rush him and start trading. Lopes hits him back, and he cuts Volkanovski’s right cheek. Volkanovski pays it no mind and rails Lopes with a ferocious right hand, and Lopes comfortably tanks a blow that would fell lesser men. Lopes draws Volkanovski into a brief slugfest, and he takes a few but manages to land at the end of his long right. Volkanovski bashes Lopes in the jaw with a one-two, and Lopes steels himself and races in for a takedown. Volkanovski jumps guard with a flying guillotine choke, and he falls to his back and laughs when Lopes and his slippery hair slide out of the submission. Volkanovski scrambles, and Lopes climbs on his back and wraps his arm around the chin. Lopes hangs on until the horn sounds, and the two high-five after 10 close minutes of combat.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski

Round 3
Round 3 The athletes once more greet with a glove touch, and Lopes leads off with a chopping kick. As Volkanovski is moving and listening to his corner, Lopes wags his finger at them and laughs. Lopes strides forward behind an elbow, skimming it off the raised guard. Lopes jabs to the head and body, and he skirts away from a calf kick. Lopes goes to the body when Volkanovski aims high, and the Aussie checks a low kick that zips towards him. Volkanovski reestablishes his jab, peppering the challenger to open up a right hand. Lopes pops him with his own to make Volkanovski take a few steps back, and he absorbs a flush right hand up top. They clash together, and Lopes gets the better of the exchange with an elbow on the break.
Volkanovski sits down on two fierce right hands, stumbling Lopes and transitioning to a takedown. Lopes stops the first try, knees Volkanovski in the belly and stops a second subsequent effort. Volkanovski resets and kicks the lead leg to open up his right hand, and Lopes answers with a single kick to the ribcage. Lopes just misses a huge right hand, and he avoids a similar one as the champ smiles. Both of these two are having a blast in the cage together, and they are not afraid to show it. Volkanovski leads with his jab, constantly moving to not get pinned down by the larger man. Volkanovski races in with a right hand, and he stumbles possibly from taking a counter right but he might have thrown himself off-balance. The champ pops right back up, and he proceeds to slam his fists in the sides of Lopes’ melon. Lopes drives home a knee to the liver, and he takes a jab as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski

Round 4
The two have reached the championship rounds again, and it has been remarkably close. Volkanovski comfortably jabs out and tosses his leg kick to disrupt Lopes’ forward movement, and he turns his lead leg to check an oncoming kick. Lopes scores an inside thigh kick, and he aims another to the same spot. The Brazilian fakes a takedown and eats a right hand, but not before landing an inside low kick. Volkanovski chops at the front leg and doubles up on a jab, and he uses that jab to come over the top with an oddly timed right hand. Volkanovski parries the jabs and steps in with a knee to the body, and he slides back just out of range of the counter. Volkanovski sinks in a crisp right on the nose, and Lopes is stuck jabbing him. Volkanovski clubs him with a pair of hooks on either side of the head, and Lopes grits his teeth and doubles up on an outside leg kick.
The challenger is met with jabs, and when he tries to answer, he turns to avoid the worst of a right hand. Volkanovski snaps the head back with a jab, one so effective that Lopes nods at him as if to celebrate the strike. Chants for the champ rain down once more, as fans had been silent and one could hear a pin drop in the arena. Volkanovski busts Lopes in the chops with a blistering right hand, taking advantage of Lopes coming at him with his right. Volkanovski lets fly a body kick, and he goes low and bangs it into the cup. Volkanovski is upset by the foul and goes to apologize immediately, but Goddard gets between them and has the champ go to a neutral corner while Lopes recovers. Lopes is good to go after 35 seconds, and Volkanovski is full of apologies. Lopes accepts them, and he marches the champion down and lobs a head kick at him. Volkanovski dodges it and kicks low, and he evades a step-in elbow. Volkanovski sees right hands coming and disengages before taking them on the chin, and his jab is a masterclass and his follow-up right is money. Lopes draws him into a big exchange, and Lopes lands as much as Volkanovski does. Lopes falls over when missing on a head kick, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski

Round 5
Five minutes remain in this match, one with scores that could range from 4-0 Volkanovski to 2-2. It could potentially be all up for grabs in this last round, and Volkanovski is quick to get right behind his jab again. The snappy jab has an extra impact as Lopes hair moves when he absorbs the blow, and he remains elusive and hard to pin down. Volkanovski shoots for a single, and Lopes answers with an arm-in guillotine choke. Volkanovski rolls through it and Lopes follows him upright by clinging to it, kneeing the champ in the head. Volkanovski drops his man with a right hand, and he chains a body lock and trip takedown into it the moment Lopes recovers. Lopes posts off his hands to get up, and Volkanovski holds on from behind and keeps to Lopes when Lopes spins. Lopes explodes and manages to take the champion to the floor, and during the scramble, he takes the back.
Volkanovski stands up, with a body triangle around his waist, and he promptly breaks the leg grip and calmly shucks Lopes off. Lopes transitions to a double, and Volkanovski hacks down with elbows before reversing the position and putting Lopes to the fence. Volkanovski trips Lopes up with his feet, and he swirls around to take Lopes’ back and drags the fight down again. Lopes hits a kimura to sweep him, and he chains it into an armbar. Volkanovski sits up and his arm is still trapped, so he keeps tightly pressed to the challenger rather than lean back to possibly straighten it. Volkanovski yanks his arm out of danger and sits on Lopes’ face, and he pumps his fist to the crowd with 30 seconds left while they go wild for him. Lopes tries for a Hail Mary leglock, and Volkanovski stands up and shrugs to Goddard when he does. Volkanovski lowers himself down, and he commences one final bombardment of elbows to punish Lopes. The audience is so loud, the fighters are lucky that Goddard knows when time is up because it is practically impossible to hear the final horn.
The fighters are happy that it’s over, after a combined 50 minutes of combat with one another. Barring something extreme, there does not need to be a third match between the two. As expected, Volkanovski has the belt wrapped around his waist, further defying the age curse that many imposed on him. The masses in the building practically blow the roof off when the victorious Aussie’s arm is raised. The defending champion is all smiles after facing a wrecking machine in Lopes, and he is proud to have his moment in Sydney in front of his home country faithful. “The Great” lauds his grit, determination and many other factors for his success to this date, and he is not ready to call it quite yet. There is no clear-cut contender at the moment, with the potential for Lerone Murphy and Movsar Evloev to establish that in London soon. He welcomes the challenge. When Volkanovski fights again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski (50-45 Volkanovski)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski (49-46 Volkanovski)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkanovski (50-45 Volkanovski)

The Official Result
Alexander Volkanovski def. Diego Lopes via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 50-45)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Connor picks Volkanovski, echoing Zane's reasoning about Lopes' lack of process. He emphasizes that Lopes' success is built on favorable matchups and short-notice opponents, and that Volkanovski has multiple paths to victory. Connor notes that Lopes' style is similar to Paddy Pimblett's but with better athleticism, and that Volkanovski's wrestling and fight IQ should be enough to overcome Lopes' early aggression. He acknowledges the risk of Volkanovski's chin but believes Lopes is not the same level as Topuria or Makhachev.

Volkanovski should be -200 to -300 favorite; odds too wide in Lopes' favor
"I think Volkonovski deserves to be in the minus two to 300 range, frankly. I get that like the vibe is out there on Lopez, but it just should not happen."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Diego Lopes

Daniel Levi picked Diego Lopes going into the fight, believing Lopes would catch Volkanovski and close the show as he normally does. He expected Volkanovski to be diminished from back-to-back knockout losses. However, he notes that Lopes was gunshy and hesitant after hurting Volkanovski, failing to pull the trigger enough, which cost him the fight.

"I actually picked Diego Lopez going into the fight and I thought that he was going to be able to catch Vulcanowski and when he did, I thought he was going to close the show like he normally does."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Lucrative James picks Alexander Volkanovski to win, citing his superior skill set, cardio, fight IQ, and ability to win the minutes. He believes Volkanovski will dominate in rounds four and five, as Lopes has shown a tendency to fade late. He acknowledges the danger of Lopes' early finishing ability but thinks Volkanovski's experience and durability will carry him. He also notes that Volkanovski has taken a year off to recover, which should benefit him. The biggest worry is Volkanovski's age and potential decline, but he still sides with the former champion.

He suggests betting on Volkanovski inside the distance in rounds four or five, possibly via ground and pound. He also mentions that if betting on Lopes, one should take his round one or round two KO props.
"Alexander Vulcanowski is my pick in this one. I believe he can win it inside the distance in the late rounds."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Zane picks Volkanovski because he believes Diego Lopes lacks a coherent process and relies on reckless aggression and counter-punching without controlling the initiative. He notes that Volkanovski has multiple paths to victory: pressuring, counter-fighting, or wrestling. Zane compares Lopes to Dricus du Plessis and Paddy Pimblett, suggesting his success is built on favorable matchups and short-notice opponents. He acknowledges Volkanovski's recent knockout losses and potential chin issues but sees Lopes as a step down from the elite fighters who beat Volk.

Volkanovski should be -200 to -300 favorite; odds too wide in Lopes' favor
"I cannot help but pick Volkonovski. It is one of those things where like I would pick Volkonovski if he gets to pressure. I would pick Volkonovski if he gets to fight on the back foot and counter fight and …"
LOSS vs Ilia Topuria
KO (punch) R2 3:32 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilia Topuria 0 47 of 107 43% 47 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Volkanovski 1 35 of 77 45% 36 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilia Topuria 0 26 of 52 50% 26 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Volkanovski 0 15 of 38 39% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ilia Topuria 0 21 of 55 38% 21 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Volkanovski 1 20 of 39 51% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilia Topuria 47 of 107 43% 21 of 68 11 of 22 15 of 17 44 of 102 3 of 5 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 35 of 77 45% 17 of 53 12 of 16 6 of 8 28 of 70 4 of 4 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilia Topuria 26 of 52 50% 8 of 29 7 of 12 11 of 11 24 of 49 2 of 3 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 15 of 38 39% 4 of 25 7 of 8 4 of 5 13 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Ilia Topuria 21 of 55 38% 13 of 39 4 of 10 4 of 6 20 of 53 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 20 of 39 51% 13 of 28 5 of 8 2 of 3 15 of 34 2 of 2 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Featherweight Title Fight: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkanovski (-118), Topuria (-102)

Round 1
We have reached the marquee matchup of the evening, and it is one that fight fans have been waiting patiently to watch for several months. Unable to secure a second title, Volkanovski (26-3, 13-2 UFC) will have to make do with attempting the sixth defense of his featherweight throne. Much has been said about his age, having recently turned 35, and he steered into it on fight week by donning an “Old Man Volk” persona. Eight years the junior of the champ, full of vinegar and that other thing, fired up unbeaten Topuria (14-0, 6-0 UFC) wants that gold belt, and to claim it he will have to become the first fighter to defeat Volkanovski at 145 pounds. No matter how this fight plays out, referee Jason Herzog will take care of the proceedings. When he brings the fighters together, they opt to touch gloves first. Topuria moves towards the center of the cage, and he blocks a quick head kick. As Topuria advances, Volkanovski snipes him with kicks high and low. Volkanovski paws out with a left and a body kick, and Topuria walks through them and retaliates with a sharp right hand over the top. Volkanovski times a kick to the body and continues throwing them to the lead leg and midsection, even flicking one up high as he keeps Topuria from reaching him. Volkanovski rips the body with another kick, and he pokes out a jab. Topuria winds up with a hard leg kick, spinning the champ all the way around, and Volkanovski recovers with a spinning back fist just in case Topuria was advancing. Topuria kicks the calf low with bad intentions, and he backs the champ off with an overhand right that glances off his guard. Topuria gets off another low kick, and he forces Volkanovski to change stances just a few in. Volkanovski dances out of the way of a short combo of fists, and he whips a kick up high to keep Topuria honest. Volkanovski delivers a calf kick back, and he follows suit with a body kick. Volkanovski paws out a left as Topuria charges, but Topuria manages to break through and sting Volkanovski with a right hand. Volkanovski bounces off the fence and shakes it off, where he peppers kicks to stave off the offense from the challenger. Volkanovski connects with a body kick and slips a huge punch, and he drives two heavy low kicks home to stumble Topuria. Volkanovski tags Topuria on the way in with a short left hand, and Topuria motions to him that his punches do not faze him. Volkanovski signals that he did land cleanly, and he shoots for a takedown only to break and knee the Georgian three times in rapid succession. The close round ends with a trickle of blood leaking from the bridge of Topuria’s nose.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 2
The featherweights touch ‘em up in the middle of the cage, and Volkanovski is fleet of foot, darting in and out with jabs and kicks to any target he can find. Topuria crashes the pocket with two hooks, and Volkanovski rolls with them and shifts to the side. Topuria chases with an overhand right, and Volkanovski measures with jabs. Topuria lands cleanly with a right and then a left, and Volkanovski nods at him and clinches up only to knee the challenger on the break. Volkanovski connects with a right hand and a low kick as Topuria resets, and Volkanovski reaches him on the way back with a body kick. Topuria lunges to land a single punch, and the jabs from Volkanovski have opened the slight cut on Topuria’s nose again. Topuria knocks Volkanovski back with a right hand, and he digs a kick to the calf as Volkanovski changes stances. They snap out jabs at the same time, with the champion reaching more cleanly and frequently when they trade them. Volkanovski peppers the lead leg with kicks, and he drives a right hand into Topuria’s forehead to give him a moment of pause. Topuria lands a low kick, and Volkanovski gives him back one to the calf and one to the body. Volkanovski springs forward with jabs that have marked the face up of the challenger, and he does not slow in his approach of kicking to any target he can find. Frustrated with taking potshots from afar, “El Matador” charges like a bull. Volkanovski slips the oncoming fire, rebounding off the cage wall, but Topuria does not slow. Topuria unleashes a lightning bolt of a right hand that completely short circuits the champion. All the way out, Volkanovski collapses with his back to the fence, and Topuria dings him on the way down with a speedy left to follow. Herzog sprints between them to save Volkanovski from any further punishment, as the champion is no longer conscious—and no longer the champion. Topuria hammers any final nail with a few right hands until Herzog reaches him to pull him off of the downed Aussie. Incredible! Spain and Georgia now have a UFC champion, and his name is Ilia Topuria. The new champ is now an undefeated 15-0 with 13 finishes, with none bigger than this stunning moment. Topuria springs the only betting upset of the evening, starching one of the greatest to ever do it with one monumental punch. Welcome to the Topuria era.

The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Alexander Volkanovski R2 3:32 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Angelo picks Alexander Volkanovski, citing his dominance at featherweight and well-rounded skills. He acknowledges Topuria's power and wrestling but notes Topuria hasn't faced anyone as skilled as Volkanovski. He is concerned about Volkanovski's recent knockout loss but believes he has defied age-related stats before. He will not bet on this fight.

"I got to go vul here he hasn't shown me anything at this weight class to make me think he won't win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision. He argues that Topuria hasn't proven himself against top competition, with his best wins being Bryce Mitchell and an aging Josh Emmett. He believes Volkanovski is on another level, having beaten Max Holloway three times and Jose Aldo. He acknowledges the narratives about Volkanovski's age and drinking but thinks the line is too close, calling a Topuria win a major upset.

"give me Alexander volkanovski to win this fight and Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing Volkanovski's status as the featherweight GOAT and his near-win over Islam Makhachev. He questions Topuria's competition level (Jay Herbert, Bryce Mitchell, Josh Emmett) compared to Volkanovski's resume. He notes Topuria's potential cardio issues in the fifth round, as he took off the fifth against Emmett. He favors the champ's pressure and volume at even money.

"I got to go with the devil I know then the devil I don't and toor's got some things he needs to prove still to this point whereas volkanovski I'm comfortable with where he's at and when he brings to …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Daniel Vreeland picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing a changing of the guard. He emphasizes Topuria's youth, less damage taken, and well-rounded skills including submission grappling and striking. He notes Volkanovski's recent knockout loss, weight cut issues, and age as concerns, but says his pick was made before those factors. He believes Topuria can match Volkanovski's output and has the heart to survive adversity, as shown in his comeback from head kick knockdowns.

"I've bet on Toria in every single one of his UFC fights... it should be no surprise that I'm picking him here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is the most complete featherweight possibly ever. He will execute a master game plan, stifle Topuria's power punching, and grind on the mat. Topuria is a high-level prospect but this is a huge step up. Expects Volkanovski to hand out a veteran lesson and win by decision.

"I think volkanovski is going to show him a thing or two handing out a veteran lesson and defending the title by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Paul believes the line is skewed by Volkanovski's short-notice loss to Makhachev. He thinks Volkanovski can secure takedowns and hang out in guard, avoiding Topuria's power. He cites Volkanovski's volume, pace, and experience against top competition like Brian Ortega. He feels the line should be closer to -175, so even money is a trap in his favor.

"I'm going with VA volkanovski in the main event here because I feel like this line is getting skewed by what happened with volkanovski taking the rematch against makev over in the Middle East on like 10 days notice..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

The MMA Guru picks Ilia Topuria, citing his power, grappling, and momentum. He notes Volkanovski's recent KO loss to Makhachev, his drinking, and the weight cut. He believes Topuria's boxing and power will be key, and that Volkanovski's chin may be suspect. He predicts a KO in round two, with Volkanovski complaining about an early stoppage.

"I'm going with Ilia Topuria... KO round two, Vault complains about an early stoppage."
LOSS vs Islam Makhachev
KO (head kick and punches) R1 3:06 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 1 24 of 29 82% 39 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Alexander Volkanovski 0 4 of 6 66% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 1 24 of 29 82% 39 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Alexander Volkanovski 0 4 of 6 66% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 24 of 29 82% 13 of 16 9 of 11 2 of 2 7 of 11 8 of 9 9 of 9
Alexander Volkanovski 4 of 6 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 24 of 29 82% 13 of 16 9 of 11 2 of 2 7 of 11 8 of 9 9 of 9
Alexander Volkanovski 4 of 6 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, calling him a discount at -170. He thinks Islam will be all-in on wrestling this time, unlike the first fight where he took Volkanovski lightly. He notes Volkanovski is coming off the couch with no camp, while Islam had a full camp. He expects Islam to tire Volkanovski and win more decisively. He considers Islam safe to parlay.

parlay inclusion, odds comment: discount at -170
"I like Islam to win and uh honestly I think he's a discount right now he's only minus 170"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He notes that Volkanovski is coming off elbow surgery on short notice, while Makhachev is improving, especially in striking. In their first fight, Makhachev clearly won and controlled the grappling. Brady expects Makhachev to take Volkanovski's back and ride out rounds, winning a clear decision.

decision
"I got to go Islam here and I'm take Islam to win this fight by pretty dominant decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody picks Makhachev, emphasizing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and had surgery, so he won't be at his best. He notes that Makhachev took Volkanovski down four times in their first fight and controlled him for eight minutes, and expects a similar or better performance in Abu Dhabi. Cody also mentions that Makhachev is in his prime and getting better, while Volkanovski just turned 35 and may not have celebrated his birthday properly.

Makhachev by decision, Makhachev over 3 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I think the short notice takes a little bit away from it with Islam Makhachev he's 31 years old he's in the prime of his life he's still getting better"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing that Islam is more physical, dictates the pace, and has the hometown advantage in Abu Dhabi where a close decision will go to Islam. He notes Volkanovski's elite feinting game and durability but believes Islam's weight cut and fatigue issues from the first fight are mitigated by Volkanovski taking the fight on short notice. He expects a competitive fight but sees Islam winning, possibly by decision, though he doesn't rule out a finish.

Islam minus 255, Volkanovski plus 250; mentions fight likely goes five rounds again
"I do have to pick Islam makev in this fight... I just think that this is Islam time at this weight class right now and I think he's going to get it done."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2023 (fight day)
Islam Makhachev

James predicted Makhachev would win by KO, citing that Makhachev had hurt Volkanovski multiple times in their first fight and that Volkanovski's conditioning might not be there on short notice. He noted that Makhachev's ground and pound could come into play if Volkanovski faded. James was very confident, placing a 5-unit bet on Makhachev moneyline and a half-unit bet on the TKO prop. He also mentioned that he switched from betting Volkanovski in the first fight to Makhachev in this rematch due to the damage Makhachev inflicted.

Makhachev by KO/TKO at +450 to +600; under 4.5 rounds
"I said Islam Makhachev is going to knock out Alexander Volkanovski... I cashed on Islam KO, I cashed on Islam money line, and I also cashed on the under four and a half rounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is a live underdog despite short notice. He has already fought Makhachev once and knows what to change. He is a freak athlete who can give a solid 25-minute performance. Makhachev is unlikely to finish him, and Volkanovski's cardio and durability should allow him to win a close decision. The line is too wide.

over 4.5 rounds (fight goes the distance)
"I'm going to take volkanovski I'm going to take him once again and hope that he can pull this one out Win It by decision down the stretch"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Islam Makhachev, citing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and recent surgery, which diminishes his preparation. He notes that Makhachev is in full camp, younger, and fighting in Abu Dhabi where the judges may favor him. Paul expects Makhachev to control the fight with takedowns and ground control, similar to their first fight, and sees value in Makhachev by decision at plus money.

Makhachev by decision (+185 to +200), Makhachev over 3 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I think you go Makhachev and because I have so much faith that Volkanovski truly is that badass I think I chase out Volkanovski by or by Islam Makhachev by decision again try to get some additional value"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev by third-round TKO. He believes Volkanovski will be weaker and smaller than in their first fight because he didn't have a full camp at 155 and is coming off a 145 fight. He thinks Makhachev will be bigger and stronger. He predicts Makhachev will land knees in the clinch, eventually catching Volkanovski with a knee to the face. He also notes that Volkanovski is rushing back from injuries.

Makhachev wins in round 3 by TKO
"I think makev is going to catch vog in the third round"
TKO (punches) R3 4:19 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkanovski 0 66 of 97 68% 149 of 198 7 of 12 58% 0 0 7:13
Yair Rodríguez 0 40 of 80 50% 57 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkanovski 0 11 of 15 73% 49 of 58 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:22
Yair Rodríguez 0 5 of 9 55% 10 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkanovski 0 18 of 25 72% 55 of 75 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:33
Yair Rodríguez 0 12 of 19 63% 24 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Volkanovski 0 37 of 57 64% 45 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Yair Rodríguez 0 23 of 52 44% 23 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkanovski 66 of 97 68% 48 of 69 4 of 5 14 of 23 25 of 45 4 of 6 37 of 46
Yair Rodríguez 40 of 80 50% 13 of 49 11 of 14 16 of 17 38 of 77 0 of 0 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkanovski 11 of 15 73% 9 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 4 2 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 11
Yair Rodríguez 5 of 9 55% 1 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 4 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Alexander Volkanovski 18 of 25 72% 15 of 19 1 of 1 2 of 5 4 of 10 1 of 1 13 of 14
Yair Rodríguez 12 of 19 63% 4 of 10 5 of 6 3 of 3 11 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Alexander Volkanovski 37 of 57 64% 24 of 39 3 of 4 10 of 14 19 of 31 3 of 5 15 of 21
Yair Rodríguez 23 of 52 44% 8 of 35 5 of 7 10 of 10 23 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Angelo is confident in Volkanovski, calling the -400 odds appropriate. He highlights Volkanovski's speed, kick usage, takedowns, and strength, and notes his performance against Islam Makhachev. He thinks Volkanovski will control the pace, mix in takedowns, and keep Rodríguez on the back foot, preventing his wild striking. He acknowledges Rodríguez's danger but believes Volkanovski is on another level.

"Alex is the pick he's sitting at like minus 400 and that feels very appropriate to me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by late stoppage (fourth round). He notes that Volkanovski is the better striker with more volume and better defense, and he has a huge advantage in wrestling and ground and pound. He points out that Rodríguez has poor takedown defense and no answers off his back, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar, Jeremy Stephens, Max Holloway, and Josh Emmett. He believes Volkanovski will take Rodríguez down, beat him up, and get a doctor stoppage or TKO in the later rounds.

fourth round stoppage (TKO/doctor stoppage)
"give me Alexander volkanovski and still I think he finishes Yaya Rodriguez late in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Cody picks Volkanovski to retain, citing his durability, cardio, and submission defense. He notes Yair's danger with unorthodox strikes but believes Volk's constant pressure and takedowns will be decisive. He mentions Volk's training with Blood Diamond to mimic Yair's style. He leans toward Volk by decision but wouldn't be surprised by a stoppage.

Volkanovski by decision (+120), inside distance (+160), over rounds, significant strikes over 135.5, takedowns over 3
"I gotta go with the King Alexander volkonowski to retain"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Connor picks Volkanovski, emphasizing his championship quality and preparation. He acknowledges Yair's danger, especially his kicking game and durability, but believes Volkanovski's pressure and wrestling will be decisive. Connor notes that Volkanovski's ability to take Yair down and control him on the ground is the path to victory.

"You pretty much have to pick Volkanovski. Yeah, because he's Volkanovski."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Daniel Levi picks Volkanovski, citing his elite fainting game, ability to out-jab taller opponents, and superior boxing in close range. He notes Volkanovski's takedown of Islam Makhachev as evidence of his wrestling prowess, which he believes will be a key advantage against Yair's suspect takedown defense. Levi acknowledges Yair's unique kicking arsenal and the head-kick KO history of Volkanovski, but expects Volkanovski's pressure and cardio to take over as the fight progresses. He also mentions that Yair's energy-intensive style may lead to a slowdown in later rounds.

"I'm picking Volk."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Alexander Volkanovski

James picks Volkanovski to win by ground-and-pound, likely in rounds 3 or 4. He believes Volkanovski's superior fight IQ and grappling advantage will be decisive. He notes Rodríguez has clear deficiencies on the ground and Volkanovski has heavy ground-and-pound. He also mentions the weight cut factor for Volkanovski moving back down, but still favors him. He does not advocate betting the moneyline at -400, but likes the inside distance prop.

Volkanovski wins inside the distance; fight doesn't go to decision
"official prediction vulcanovski via Grand and pound round four round three"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is the more polished and disciplined fighter with excellent striking defense, movement, and wrestling. Rodriguez has flashy striking and an active guard, but has been broken before. Volkanovski will close distance, land takedowns, and control the fight, likely winning by decision. He is a safe parlay piece.

parlay
"I think just taking his chalky spot throwing it into a parlay is not a bad way to go about it."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Paul agrees with Cody, stating it's tough to go against Volk at 145. He highlights Volk's ability to win on volume or by mixing in wrestling, and his proven submission defense. He mentions Volk's training with Blood Diamond to mimic Yair. He says he'll likely include Volk in parlays but won't place a serious wager.

Volkanovski by decision (+120), inside distance (+160), over rounds, significant strikes over 135.5, takedowns over 3
"could not back Volk I mean I don't know if I'm gonna back him with my pocket but the guy's just good everywhere"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by fourth-round TKO. He acknowledges Rodríguez's dangerous striking but doubts his finishing ability, calling his ground and pound pathetic. He believes Volkanovski's leg kicks and pressure will disrupt Rodríguez's flow, and that Volkanovski's top game in later rounds will be decisive. He notes that Holloway already handled Rodríguez on the ground.

wins by TKO in the fourth round
"I'm gonna go with vulcanov skin round four TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Zane picks Volkanovski, citing his pressure wrestling and ability to exploit Yair's defensive flaws. He notes that Volkanovski's wrestling will be key to neutralizing Yair's kicking game and that Yair's stamina flags under grappling pressure. Zane expects Volkanovski to take Yair down and grind him out, possibly with a late TKO.

Volkanovski by TKO in round 4 or later at 35%
"I think assuming Volkanovski pressures again, you have to pick him."
LOSS vs Islam Makhachev
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 57 of 95 60% 95 of 135 4 of 9 44% 0 0 7:37
Alexander Volkanovski 1 70 of 143 48% 164 of 255 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 10 of 16 62% 18 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:04
Alexander Volkanovski 0 11 of 23 47% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Islam Makhachev 0 19 of 32 59% 30 of 44 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:57
Alexander Volkanovski 0 19 of 34 55% 30 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
3 Islam Makhachev 0 16 of 22 72% 20 of 26 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
Alexander Volkanovski 0 14 of 37 37% 19 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
4 Islam Makhachev 0 4 of 9 44% 19 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:25
Alexander Volkanovski 0 6 of 13 46% 49 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Islam Makhachev 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
Alexander Volkanovski 1 20 of 36 55% 52 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 57 of 95 60% 36 of 72 18 of 20 3 of 3 45 of 82 12 of 13 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 70 of 143 48% 37 of 96 21 of 33 12 of 14 58 of 125 6 of 10 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 10 of 16 62% 5 of 11 3 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 11 of 23 47% 4 of 13 5 of 7 2 of 3 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Islam Makhachev 19 of 32 59% 12 of 24 7 of 8 0 of 0 13 of 25 6 of 7 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 19 of 34 55% 8 of 20 7 of 10 4 of 4 18 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Islam Makhachev 16 of 22 72% 10 of 15 5 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 14 of 37 37% 7 of 26 4 of 8 3 of 3 11 of 32 2 of 4 1 of 1
4 Islam Makhachev 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 6 of 13 46% 4 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Islam Makhachev 8 of 16 50% 6 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 12 4 of 4 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 20 of 36 55% 14 of 27 4 of 7 2 of 2 12 of 25 3 of 4 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev with high confidence, arguing that Volkanovski's size disadvantage and lack of one-punch power or submission threat make him an easy matchup for Islam. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is suspect (Ortega took him down twice) and that Islam's grappling is suffocating. He has a three-unit bet on Islam at -330 and expects the line to close around -500.

Islam safe for parlays
"I have a three unit moneyline bet on Islam at minus 330"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady is confident in Makhachev, citing his size advantage and elite grappling. He thinks Volkanovski's takedown defense won't hold up against a lightweight wrestler like Makhachev. He predicts a submission win in the third round, noting Volkanovski's toughness but believing Makhachev will eventually catch him.

third round submission
"I'm going to take mahachiev to win I'm gonna take him to win by submission and I'll say it happens in the third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody picks Makhachev but thinks the -400 line is too high and sees value in Volkanovski as a hedge. He notes Volkanovski's path to victory is keeping the fight standing and outworking Makhachev in later rounds, as Makhachev is a low-volume striker. He also mentions Volkanovski's durability and ability to escape submissions from Ortega. He suggests building parlays around Makhachev and throwing a small bet on Volkanovski at +300.

suggests hedging with Volkanovski at +300
"I'm picking Islam mankachev but I think the best path here is build parlays maybe around mankachev and then when it gets down to the main event don't be be too proud to just throw a couple bucks on vulcanovski …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Makhachev, emphasizing his superior grappling and ability to chain attacks. He notes that Volkanovski's get-up game, while improved, may not work against Makhachev's patient, trap-setting style. Connor highlights that Makhachev's team prepares specific counters to opponents' tendencies, and that Volkanovski's path to victory requires tiring Makhachev, which has never been done. He also mentions that Volkanovski's striking is better, but the wrestling threat neutralizes it.

"I think i'm still going to pick mocka chip here at the end of the day just because like... it's a hard place to start and be like but I also think he's going to lose."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is the pound-for-pound best, undefeated in 22 fights over 10 years. His defensive grappling is elite; no one has held him down. Makhachev's competition is overrated—Volkanovski would beat everyone Makhachev faced. Volkanovski's cardio and striking will take over late as Makhachev tires from unsuccessful grappling. The size difference is a concern but Volkanovski's strength and bulking up mitigate it. At +300, the value is tremendous.

over 2.5 rounds at -175; fight goes all five rounds
"the fact that we're getting the number one pound for pound fighter a fighter who has been undefeated in 22 professional mixed martial arts fights over 10 years that you can get him at plus 300 is absolutely crazy to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul believes Makhachev will take Volkanovski down at will and eventually finish him inside the distance. He notes Volkanovski was taken down twice by Brian Ortega and lucky to escape submissions, and that Makhachev's hands have improved. He sees Volkanovski's only path as a big overhand right, but thinks Makhachev wins 80% of the time via submission or TKO. He bet Makhachev inside the distance at -105 to -110.

Makhachev inside the distance at -105/-110
"I took some uh makachev inside the distance... I got one book it was minus 105 but another book it was minus 110."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Alexander Volkanovski, emphasizing Makhachev's size, strength, and grappling. He believes Makhachev will use clinch knees and head kicks to finish Volkanovski in the third round by TKO. He notes Volkanovski leads with his head, which Makhachev can exploit with knees.

third round TKO
"I'm gonna go with Islam makashev third round TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane also picks Makhachev, agreeing with Connor that the grappling advantage is decisive. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is not elite and that Makhachev's pressure and chain wrestling will likely overwhelm him. Zane points out that Volkanovski's best chance is to make it a striking match, but Makhachev's wrestling threat will stifle that. He also mentions that Makhachev's preparation is meticulous, targeting specific weaknesses.

"All right, we're both gonna pick uh... well, we're both picking makachev. He is the favorite here."
WIN vs Max Holloway
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkanovski 0 199 of 372 53% 204 of 377 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:57
Max Holloway 0 127 of 301 42% 161 of 335 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkanovski 0 28 of 70 40% 28 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Max Holloway 0 24 of 56 42% 26 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkanovski 0 37 of 78 47% 38 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Max Holloway 0 27 of 65 41% 37 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Volkanovski 0 40 of 74 54% 40 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Max Holloway 0 26 of 63 41% 30 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
4 Alexander Volkanovski 0 44 of 70 62% 48 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Max Holloway 0 31 of 63 49% 42 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
5 Alexander Volkanovski 0 50 of 80 62% 50 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Max Holloway 0 19 of 54 35% 26 of 61 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkanovski 199 of 372 53% 152 of 316 19 of 24 28 of 32 175 of 340 24 of 32 0 of 0
Max Holloway 127 of 301 42% 64 of 213 42 of 59 21 of 29 109 of 283 18 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkanovski 28 of 70 40% 18 of 55 5 of 7 5 of 8 26 of 68 2 of 2 0 of 0
Max Holloway 24 of 56 42% 11 of 31 6 of 14 7 of 11 22 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkanovski 37 of 78 47% 29 of 69 3 of 4 5 of 5 35 of 75 2 of 3 0 of 0
Max Holloway 27 of 65 41% 15 of 48 7 of 10 5 of 7 27 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexander Volkanovski 40 of 74 54% 31 of 63 5 of 6 4 of 5 34 of 65 6 of 9 0 of 0
Max Holloway 26 of 63 41% 16 of 51 8 of 9 2 of 3 22 of 59 4 of 4 0 of 0
4 Alexander Volkanovski 44 of 70 62% 37 of 63 3 of 3 4 of 4 35 of 58 9 of 12 0 of 0
Max Holloway 31 of 63 49% 13 of 41 16 of 20 2 of 2 24 of 56 7 of 7 0 of 0
5 Alexander Volkanovski 50 of 80 62% 37 of 66 3 of 4 10 of 10 45 of 74 5 of 6 0 of 0
Max Holloway 19 of 54 35% 9 of 42 5 of 6 5 of 6 14 of 49 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Angelo picks Volkanovski, citing his previous two wins over Holloway and his ability to mix in takedowns. He notes that Holloway took significant damage in his last fight against Yair Rodriguez and may be declining. He expects a similar outcome with Volkanovski winning a decision.

"I like volkanovsky to win this fight and i just hope it's clear"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski but is hesitant, acknowledging Holloway's volume and the close second fight. He likes Volkanovski's movement, kicks, and ability to mix in takedowns. He expects a close decision win for Volkanovski.

Volkanovski by decision
"i'll take volkanovsky to get it done by a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Cody thinks Volkanovski has Max's number, citing his ability to mix in takedowns and land more impactful strikes. He notes Max's volume is high but he leaves himself open to counters. He expects Volkanovski to win a decision, possibly by mixing in wrestling.

Volkanovski by decision
"I'm heavy on Alexander Volkanovski I think he's got Max's number"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Daniel Levi leans toward Alexander Volkanovski, citing his superior fainting game, leg kicks, and ability to make in-fight adjustments. He notes that Volkanovski's heart and doggedness were key in the second fight, where he came back from down two rounds. Levi acknowledges that Holloway has value at +170 given the close nature of their previous fights (five of six judges scored them 3-2), but he believes Volkanovski is operating on a different level and could potentially dominate. He is not confident enough to bet at -200.

Value on Holloway at +170 if it's another 3-2 fight; but could be a domination by Volkanovski; no bet placed.
"i have to go with volt... i'm leaning volk but i'm not gonna talk people off of max holloway"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is a master at implementing game plans and adjusts well as fights go on. He won the later rounds in both previous fights. Holloway's narrative of getting stronger late doesn't hold against Volkanovski. The host prefers Volkanovski by decision at +105 rather than the moneyline.

Volkanovski by decision +105
"i'm going to go volkanovsky if okanowski by decision will likely be my bet"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Paul agrees Volkanovski is the rightful favorite, citing his ability to mix in takedowns and steal rounds. He prefers to bet live to get a better price, but picks Volkanovski to win.

"volkanovsky is the pick for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision, citing his improved leg kick setups, grappling, and recent activity with no damage taken. He argues Holloway has taken significant damage in recent fights and that Volkanovski's shorter stature with longer reach is a stylistic nightmare. He predicts a 49-46 scorecard and notes that betting on Holloway requires knockdowns, which is unreliable.

"i believe that alexander volkanovsky is going to win this match up against max holloway and i think he's going to win this one by decision again"
TKO (punches) R4 0:45 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkanovski 1 138 of 213 64% 152 of 228 4 of 8 50% 0 0 2:52
Chan Sung Jung 0 48 of 125 38% 51 of 128 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkanovski 0 37 of 54 68% 40 of 57 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Chan Sung Jung 0 15 of 40 37% 16 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkanovski 0 35 of 54 64% 43 of 63 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:22
Chan Sung Jung 0 10 of 31 32% 10 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Volkanovski 1 57 of 93 61% 60 of 96 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:43
Chan Sung Jung 0 21 of 50 42% 23 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Alexander Volkanovski 0 9 of 12 75% 9 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chan Sung Jung 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkanovski 138 of 213 64% 102 of 171 10 of 13 26 of 29 116 of 185 10 of 12 12 of 16
Chan Sung Jung 48 of 125 38% 31 of 103 9 of 11 8 of 11 44 of 121 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkanovski 37 of 54 68% 25 of 40 4 of 5 8 of 9 37 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chan Sung Jung 15 of 40 37% 9 of 31 2 of 2 4 of 7 14 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkanovski 35 of 54 64% 27 of 45 2 of 3 6 of 6 26 of 43 7 of 9 2 of 2
Chan Sung Jung 10 of 31 32% 4 of 24 3 of 4 3 of 3 10 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexander Volkanovski 57 of 93 61% 44 of 78 3 of 4 10 of 11 44 of 76 3 of 3 10 of 14
Chan Sung Jung 21 of 50 42% 16 of 44 4 of 5 1 of 1 18 of 47 3 of 3 0 of 0
4 Alexander Volkanovski 9 of 12 75% 6 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 3 9 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chan Sung Jung 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Angelo confidently picks Alexander Volkanovski by unanimous decision. He cites Volkanovski's work ethic, pace, striking volume, and takedowns as too much for the Korean Zombie. He notes Zombie's durability and power but believes Volkanovski cruises. He calls it an easy parlay piece.

Parlay piece; suggests parlay with Volkanovski, Yan, and Chimaev.
"i think this is a pretty straightforward win for volkanovsky though i think his work ethic pace striking volume and takedowns will absolutely be too much for the korean zombie and i think he cruises to a unanimous decision win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by dominant decision, likely 50-45. He notes Volkanovski's volume striking, takedown defense, and chin are elite. The Korean Zombie looked washed against Ortega and his only path is a knockout, but Volkanovski has never been knocked out. Brady sees no path to victory for Zombie and expects Volkanovski to outwork him everywhere.

"i'm gonna take volkonovsky to win by decision out voluming korean zombie every single round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Cody picks Volkanovski to win, noting his complete MMA game, striking, wrestling, and ability to escape dangerous submissions. He is interested in the under 4.5 rounds because Volkanovski said he'd finish within three rounds and the Korean Zombie has been compromised before. Cody acknowledges the steep -760 price but still sees Volkanovski as a solid parlay piece.

under 4.5 rounds +130
"minus 760 is a hell of a price tag i'm picking him to win"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Levi praises Volkanovski's elite feinting game, calf kicks, and ability to mix takedowns. He respects the Korean Zombie's toughness and exciting style, but believes Volk is the far superior fighter. He thinks Volk will use feints to set up takedowns and land big shots, possibly finishing the fight. He acknowledges the Korean Zombie has the best chance among underdogs but still picks Volk.

"i think that volk has the most world-class fainting game in all of mma"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

I think Volkanovski is the more complete fighter and will win, but he is hittable and Korean Zombie has power. I see Volkanovski dragging the fight to the ground to be safe and winning a decision. I would not parlay him at -800; the value is on Jung. I'll play Volkanovski by decision at -150.

Volkanovski by decision -150
"I'll go Volkanovski Volkanovski via decision and I think he retains..."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Paul is confident in Volkanovski's moneyline, calling him championship material with no big red flags. He highlights Volkanovski's cardio, chin, wrestling, striking, and high ring IQ, noting he can change game plans like in the Holloway rematch. Paul also likes the under 4.5 rounds and fight doesn't go the distance, believing the Korean Zombie can't sustain the beating for 25 minutes. He picks Volkanovski by TKO inside the distance.

under 4.5 rounds +130, fight doesn't go the distance +120, Volkanovski by TKO
"moneyline volkanovsky of the three big favorites on the card i think i like alexander volkonovsky the most"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski, predicting a fourth-round ground-and-pound TKO. He expects Volkanovski to get dropped in the first but recover, then chew up the Korean Zombie's legs with calf kicks and body shots. He notes the Korean Zombie's tendency to lean forward and struggle with lateral movement, and cites Volkanovski's superior cardio and recovery.

fourth round TKO prediction, leg kicks
"i'm gonna go volkanovsky late fourth round ground and pound tko"
Darren Elkins - Fight History
LOSS vs Julian Erosa
KO R1 4:15 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 13 of 31 41% 18 of 45 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:48
Julian Erosa 0 54 of 73 73% 69 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 13 of 31 41% 18 of 45 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:48
Julian Erosa 0 54 of 73 73% 69 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 13 of 31 41% 11 of 28 1 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 2
Julian Erosa 54 of 73 73% 52 of 71 0 of 0 2 of 2 22 of 39 11 of 12 21 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 13 of 31 41% 11 of 28 1 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 2
Julian Erosa 54 of 73 73% 52 of 71 0 of 0 2 of 2 22 of 39 11 of 12 21 of 22
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Julian Erosa

Daniel Levi states that Julian Erosa did exactly what he was supposed to do as a big favorite, handling the older veteran Darren Elkins. He approves of the performance.

"Rosa did exactly what he was supposed to do as a big favor. You go out there and you handle, you know, the kind of old decrepit 40-year-old vet, and that's exactly what he did."
WIN vs Daniel Pineda
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 39 of 88 44% 102 of 170 3 of 12 25% 0 1 6:33
Daniel Pineda 0 31 of 53 58% 61 of 85 0 of 0 --- 2 1 3:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 3 of 8 37% 23 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 1 2:07
Daniel Pineda 0 13 of 15 86% 27 of 30 0 of 0 --- 2 1 2:07
2 Darren Elkins 0 19 of 47 40% 39 of 72 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:24
Daniel Pineda 0 12 of 24 50% 17 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Darren Elkins 0 17 of 33 51% 40 of 63 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:02
Daniel Pineda 0 6 of 14 42% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 39 of 88 44% 30 of 78 9 of 10 0 of 0 28 of 70 3 of 7 8 of 11
Daniel Pineda 31 of 53 58% 21 of 38 7 of 10 3 of 5 17 of 37 1 of 1 13 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 3 of 8 37% 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 1 1 of 1
Daniel Pineda 13 of 15 86% 12 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 13
2 Darren Elkins 19 of 47 40% 15 of 42 4 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 37 0 of 0 7 of 10
Daniel Pineda 12 of 24 50% 6 of 15 5 of 6 1 of 3 10 of 22 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Darren Elkins 17 of 33 51% 12 of 28 5 of 5 0 of 0 14 of 27 3 of 6 0 of 0
Daniel Pineda 6 of 14 42% 3 of 10 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Angelo is surprised Darren Elkins is the underdog and has a bet on him at +102. He notes Elkins' incredible toughness, grinding style, and ability to fight a full 15 minutes without fading, while Pineda is a feast-or-famine fighter who fades quickly after an initial burst. He thinks Elkins can weather the early storm and take over as the fight goes on. He sees value in the underdog line and expects Elkins to win.

bet on Elkins at +102
"Darren Elkins is going to be the pick and I have a bet on him at plus 102"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks Darren Elkins by third-round knockout. He sees it as Pineda early, Elkins late. Pineda is dangerous early with power and grappling, but gasses badly. Elkins is extremely tough and will not let Pineda off the hook if he fades. He expects Elkins to take over, take Pineda down, and finish him in the third round.

third round knockout
"I'm going Darren Elkin One Last Ride uh to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Connor also picks Elkins hesitantly, noting that Pineda is violent but inconsistent, with a tendency to gas and lose focus. He compares the matchup to the 'Darren Elkins vs Michael Johnson award' for one-true-outcome fights. He acknowledges that Elkins could get knocked out early, but Pineda's self-destructive tendencies make Elkins the safer pick.

"I am inclined to pick a 40 year old Darren Elkins with the full knowledge that he may get knocked out immediately"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Pineda has finished all 28 of his victories but will struggle with the relentless style of Elkins. As long as Elkins' durability holds up early, he should be able to break Pineda down and find a finish in the second or third round.

finish in round 2 or 3
"as long as Elkin durability holds up early he should be able to break pan down and find a finish in the second or third round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

The Guru believes Darren Elkins has taken too much damage and no longer has it at age 40. He notes Pineda had good performances against Nathaniel Wood and Alex Caceres, and expects Pineda to destroy Elkins' lead leg with calf kicks and get a guillotine off a lazy takedown. He predicts a TKO or submission finish.

TKO or submission, calf kicks, guillotine
"I'm going to go with Daniel panada getting this one done by TKO or submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Zane picks Elkins but with hesitation, acknowledging that Elkins is 40 and could get knocked out. However, he notes that Pineda is the type of fighter who beats himself—he gasses, loses focus, and makes bad decisions. Elkins historically beats those kinds of fighters by accepting the gift. Zane says he can't feel good about it but can't pick Pineda either.

Elkins opened +111, now +100; Pineda opened -123, now -112; Zane says there's no reason Pineda should be a favorite
"I'm taking Elkins can't feel good about it, but I also don't feel like I can really pick Panetta"
WIN vs T.J. Brown
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:23 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 11 of 33 33% 95 of 146 5 of 8 62% 2 1 8:09
T.J. Brown 0 15 of 50 30% 45 of 86 2 of 2 100% 0 1 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 2 of 11 18% 53 of 80 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:32
T.J. Brown 0 4 of 13 30% 11 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:37
2 Darren Elkins 0 7 of 16 43% 28 of 43 3 of 5 60% 0 1 2:49
T.J. Brown 0 9 of 29 31% 32 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:44
3 Darren Elkins 0 2 of 6 33% 14 of 23 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:48
T.J. Brown 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 11 of 33 33% 8 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 1 11 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 15 of 50 30% 11 of 45 1 of 2 3 of 3 15 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 2 of 11 18% 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 4 of 13 30% 2 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Darren Elkins 7 of 16 43% 4 of 13 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 9 of 29 31% 7 of 26 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Darren Elkins 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Angelo leans T.J. Brown despite his suspect takedown defense and chin, because he believes Brown's pressure and grappling will be enough to outwork the aging Elkins. He notes Brown has never been knocked out and expects him to win, but he wants to wait for the line to tighten before betting.

"I am fairly confident that TJ is going to be able to win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks Darren Elkins for the upset by third-round finish. He notes T.J. Brown has poor fight IQ and takedown defense, and often makes mistakes. He worries about Elkins' age and recent injuries but expects Brown to gas out or make a mistake, allowing Elkins to take over late.

Elkins by finish in round 3
"I'm going to pick Darren alkins for the up set I think TJ Brown probably looks really good early but in TJ Brown fashion I expect him to make a mistake as the fight goes on or gas out"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Cody picks Elkins, arguing that Brown has a history of losing when favored and that Elkins finds ways to win. He notes that Brown fades in later rounds and has poor takedown defense, while Elkins has a grinding style and excellent cardio. Cody believes Elkins can take Brown down and wear him out, especially after the first round.

Live bet on Elkins after first round
"I got Elkins he's the underdog"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

The host picks T.J. Brown to win inside the distance, expecting him to bite down on his mouthpiece and land big shots early. He notes Brown's speed and power advantage over the aging Elkins, and suggests avoiding the moneyline in favor of the plus money prop. He predicts a first-round stoppage.

Brown wins inside distance +165
"taking him to win inside the distance at plus 165 probably a good way of taking this chalky spot and making a plus money spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul picks Elkins, citing his toughness and ability to grind out wins. He notes that Brown has a fast start but fades, and that Elkins has fought much tougher competition. Paul believes Elkins' wrestling and cardio will be too much for Brown, and that Elkins can survive the early storm and take over.

Bet Darren Elkins at +160
"I've got Darren Elkins plus 160"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

The MMA Guru picks T.J. Brown over Darren Elkins. He praises Brown's performance against Bill Algeo despite the loss, and notes Brown trains with Bryce Mitchell in grappling, so he won't be outwrestled. He criticizes Elkins as a geriatric old man at 39 who has taken too much damage, citing his loss to Jonathan Pearce. He believes Brown is in his prime and can go three hard rounds, winning by decision or big shots.

"I'm going to go TJ Brown over Darren Elkins nothing personal against Darren Elkins but he fights like a geriatric old man these days"
LOSS vs Jonathan Pearce
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Pearce 0 57 of 193 29% 67 of 203 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:48
Darren Elkins 0 110 of 222 49% 154 of 276 2 of 7 28% 0 1 3:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Pearce 0 11 of 57 19% 14 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:28
Darren Elkins 0 30 of 64 46% 35 of 70 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:42
2 Jonathan Pearce 0 15 of 47 31% 22 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Darren Elkins 0 44 of 68 64% 74 of 106 0 of 3 0% 0 1 2:29
3 Jonathan Pearce 0 31 of 89 34% 31 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Darren Elkins 0 36 of 90 40% 45 of 100 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Pearce 57 of 193 29% 47 of 176 9 of 15 1 of 2 49 of 177 8 of 16 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 110 of 222 49% 80 of 188 18 of 22 12 of 12 66 of 159 14 of 20 30 of 43
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Pearce 11 of 57 19% 9 of 51 2 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 30 of 64 46% 16 of 47 11 of 14 3 of 3 21 of 51 4 of 5 5 of 8
2 Jonathan Pearce 15 of 47 31% 14 of 43 1 of 3 0 of 1 10 of 37 5 of 10 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 44 of 68 64% 37 of 61 3 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 27 8 of 10 23 of 31
3 Jonathan Pearce 31 of 89 34% 24 of 82 6 of 6 1 of 1 29 of 85 2 of 4 0 of 0
Darren Elkins 36 of 90 40% 27 of 80 4 of 5 5 of 5 32 of 81 2 of 5 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Angelo picks Jonathan Pearce, trusting him to wrestle early and use his power and grappling. He notes Pearce is a good size favorite and should be, but expresses concern that Pearce was taken down three times in his last fight, and Darren Elkins will be looking for takedowns. He believes Pearce needs to grapple first and not wait for Elkins, otherwise Elkins could control the fight and win a decision.

"Jonathan Pierce is going to be the pick he's got the power in his hands he's got the grappling but I'm gonna need him to Grapple first and not wait for Elkins"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Big Brady picks Pearce, citing his youth (eight years younger) and less wear and tear. He notes both fighters have similar styles but Pearce has better cardio and takedown ability. He expects Pearce to win a decision, though he acknowledges Elkins is tough and could have moments.

Pearce wins by decision
"I like Jonathan Pierce to win I like him to win by a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Cody picks Pearce, seeing it as a passing of the torch. He notes Pearce's wrestling and pace, and Elkins' age and damage. He thinks Pearce will win by decision or late finish.

"in terms of a pick it's got to be pierced Pierce got to get this thing done"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Connor picks Jonathan Pearce, agreeing that Elkins is declining and that Pearce is too young and athletic. He notes that Pearce won't be afraid to grapple and is a giant at featherweight, making it a bad matchup for Elkins.

"I got to pick Pierce. It'll be really funny if Elkins just goes out there and be awesome."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Daniel Levi picks Jonathan Pearce, calling it a passing of the torch. He notes Pearce's wrestling, cardio, and output, and believes Elkins' damage over the years is a factor. He is not betting at the heavy price but is confident in the pick.

"I think that this is just the passing of the torch type fight and I think the line reflects that so jsb is my pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

The host is confident in Pearce, calling it a horrible matchup for Elkins. He thinks Pearce's speed, power, and youth will overwhelm Elkins early. He expects a first-round finish and likes the under 2.5 rounds at minus 135 as a steal. He notes that Pearce has all the advantages except heart, which won't be enough for Elkins.

under 2.5 rounds -135; Pearce inside the distance; Pearce round 1
"the under two and a half I'm currently seeing it around that minus 135 range which I think is a steal of a price"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul picks Elkins hesitantly, thinking the price is too wide. He notes Elkins' durability and pace, and Pierce's questionable cardio. He likes Elkins by decision at +800 as a sprinkle.

Elkins by decision at +800
"I see Darren Elkins by decision out there plus 800 Cody I don't know if I can help myself but to throw a little sprinkle on that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Pearce as a lock of the card, citing Darren Elkins' decline in speed and performance. He notes Elkins has looked slower in recent fights and that Pearce is a tough, momentum-driven fighter who has been melting opponents. He predicts a dominant decision or late TKO for Pearce.

Pearce by dominant decision (30-27) or late TKO
"I'm going to be going with Jonathan Pierce I think again this is one of the locks of the card"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Zane picks Jonathan Pearce, stating that Elkins is in decline and has been toughing out wins against lesser competition. He notes that Pearce is younger, bigger, and won't crumble; he will play his own game rather than being drawn into Elkins' strengths.

"I'm not picking Darren Elkins. I'm there. I'm not picking this man anymore. I have not liked the way he has looked for, it feels like 20 years now."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 75 of 151 49% 165 of 259 5 of 10 50% 1 0 7:52
Tristan Connelly 0 66 of 117 56% 106 of 158 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 19 of 39 48% 55 of 84 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:40
Tristan Connelly 0 7 of 18 38% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Darren Elkins 0 28 of 56 50% 40 of 70 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:07
Tristan Connelly 0 34 of 50 68% 37 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Darren Elkins 0 28 of 56 50% 70 of 105 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:05
Tristan Connelly 0 25 of 49 51% 43 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 75 of 151 49% 66 of 141 9 of 10 0 of 0 38 of 107 29 of 34 8 of 10
Tristan Connelly 66 of 117 56% 48 of 96 9 of 12 9 of 9 42 of 87 21 of 27 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 19 of 39 48% 17 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 28 2 of 2 7 of 9
Tristan Connelly 7 of 18 38% 7 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Darren Elkins 28 of 56 50% 27 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 42 11 of 13 1 of 1
Tristan Connelly 34 of 50 68% 22 of 38 5 of 5 7 of 7 23 of 38 9 of 10 2 of 2
3 Darren Elkins 28 of 56 50% 22 of 49 6 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 37 16 of 19 0 of 0
Tristan Connelly 25 of 49 51% 19 of 41 4 of 6 2 of 2 14 of 33 11 of 16 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 24, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

Angelo picks Tristan Connelly, though he acknowledges Elkins is never out of a fight. He thinks the damage is catching up to Elkins after his KO loss to Cub Swanson. He believes Connelly can avoid takedowns and land big punches to sneak out a win, but notes Elkins' toughness and ability to make fights ugly.

"i do like tristan connolly to get it done but the reality is darren elkins is a guy that you can never count out of a fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks Darren Elkins but is hesitant, calling the fight a mess. He notes Elkins' experience and wrestling, but worries about his age and damage taken. He expects Elkins to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges it could go either way.

decision
"i'm going to take uh darren elkins to win i think he's going to mix and take downs"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

Cody also picks Connelly, noting Elkins' age and wear. He thinks Connelly's cardio and BJJ will allow him to survive early takedowns and take over later. Cody references Connelly's fight against Pat Sabatini, where he lost the first two rounds but dominated the third. He believes Connelly's speed and pressure will be too much for Elkins, and that Connelly could even submit him.

"i'm gonna back another underdog here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Daniel Levi picks Darren Elkins but is not confident. He believes the best version of Elkins would grind out Connelly, but questions how much damage Elkins has taken over his career, comparing him to BJ Penn's decline. He also questions if Connelly belongs at UFC level, noting his win over Michel Pereira was more about Pereira beating himself. Levi is not comfortable laying -175 and passes on betting.

"i'll go with elkins just because if you give me the best version of both guys i do think elkins grinds that out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

The host leans Connelly as an underdog, citing his cardio and BJJ. He notes Elkins is slowing down and has taken massive damage, while Connelly has good cardio and can match Elkins' pressure. Connelly's striking is better if kept standing, and his jiu-jitsu can neutralize Elkins' wrestling. He expects a competitive fight that could go to decision, with Connelly having a live chance.

Connelly by decision +300, fight goes to decision -185
"i think connolly's live he's a junkyard dog"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

Paul picks Tristan Connelly as a live underdog, citing Elkins' accumulated damage and age (in fight years). He notes Connelly's BJJ black belt and endless cardio, and his ability to defend takedowns and get back up. Paul thinks Connelly's speed and pressure will be key, and that Elkins may be damaged goods after the Cub Swanson loss. He mentions Connelly's guillotine choke as a potential threat.

"i think this is another live dog that we're looking at"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

The Guru picks Tristan Connelly, citing Elkins' accumulated damage and recent KO loss to Cub Swanson. He believes Connelly is younger with less wear and tear, and has shown tenacity in coming back in fights. The Guru notes Connelly's good third round against Pat Sabatini and his win over TJ Laramie. He thinks Elkins' chin is starting to go and that Connelly has more heat in his punches. He predicts Connelly will grind out a decision or get a late finish.

Connelly by decision or late finish; Connelly is an underdog
"i'm taking tristan connolly over darren elkins here... i'm gonna go with tristan connolly grinding out a decision and ending up winning the last two rounds or maybe getting a late rounds finish"
LOSS vs Cub Swanson
TKO (spinning wheel kick and punches) R1 2:12 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 1 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Darren Elkins 0 2 of 19 10% 5 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 1 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Darren Elkins 0 2 of 19 10% 5 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 18 of 30 60% 16 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 4
Darren Elkins 2 of 19 10% 2 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 18 of 30 60% 16 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 4
Darren Elkins 2 of 19 10% 2 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Angelo picks Darren Elkins, citing the constant threat of takedowns and grinding pressure. He believes Elkins can make the fight ugly and frustrate Swanson, who is the better all-around fighter but needs to keep it standing. Angelo notes that Elkins has power in his hands but his clear path is grappling. He placed a moneyline bet on Elkins because the odds were too good at +170, thinking it should be closer to a pick'em.

moneyline bet at +170
"i do have a money line bet on darren elkins and that's mostly because the odds were so good i mean plus 170 is crazy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Big Brady picks Cub Swanson by decision, citing his striking advantage (higher volume, accuracy, defense) and improved takedown defense in recent fights. He notes Elkins' low striking accuracy and believes Swanson can keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Elkins' grappling but thinks Swanson's takedown defense has improved enough to avoid trouble.

decision
"give me swanson to win give me swanson to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody picks Swanson but doesn't like the -200 price. He thinks Swanson's superior footwork and striking technique will allow him to box up Elkins on the feet. He notes that Elkins needs takedowns to win, and Swanson's takedown defense (60% career) might be enough. Cody suggests taking Swanson by decision at +150 instead of the moneyline, as he believes Swanson is unlikely to finish Elkins.

Swanson by decision +150
"I will take cup swanson he's the official pick I don't like that price tag"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel Levi picks Cub Swanson but admits he is sketched out by Elkins's comeback ability. He believes Swanson will dominate the striking early, using his speed, kicks, and explosiveness. However, Levi worries that if Elkins gets top position or takes Swanson's back, he could submit him. He references Jeremy Stephens's blueprint of keeping the fight standing and busting Elkins up, which Swanson can follow. Levi expects Swanson to win a decision, possibly 30-27, but acknowledges the risk of Elkins pulling off a submission.

Swanson by decision; fight doesn't go to decision (if Elkins submits)
"I am going to pick Cub to win but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't sketched out if Elkins got on top of him."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Jacob picks Cub Swanson, his favorite fighter, and is very confident. He argues that Swanson is the better all-around fighter and equally tough. Jacob believes Swanson will dominate the fight, noting that Swanson looked great in his last win and that Elkins' wins come from out-toughing opponents, but nobody out-toughs Swanson. He thinks the odds are fair and that Swanson will win.

"cub swanson is going to dominate this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Cub Swanson

The host picks Swanson by KO, citing the striking disparity and Elkins' declining reactions. He believes Swanson will tee off on Elkins and finish him. He likes the KO prop at +250 and also parlayed Swanson moneyline with Barcelos.

Swanson by KO (+250); parlay Swanson + Barcelos (-102)
"I like cub swanson by ko i think that's very live in this situation"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul is leaning towards Elkins as a dog, citing Elkins's incredible durability and never-quit attitude. He thinks Swanson may start fast but could fade, and Elkins's pressure and wrestling could take over. Paul plans to bet Elkins live if Swanson slows down, expecting a better number than +170. He calls it a 'dogger pass' situation pre-fight.

"I'm going to actually have to watch the fight and I'm going to try to bet it live because I know that swanston doesn't have cardio issues but darren is just he's a guy that has made me a bunch …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson to win by 29-28 decision. He notes Swanson has improved his grappling defense significantly, as shown in the second Edgar fight where he wasn't taken down. He thinks Swanson's stand-up advantage will be key and he won't gas out like other Elkins opponents. He expects a scrappy war but Swanson's veteran savvy will carry him.

"i'm going with cub swanson here over darren elkins"
TKO (punches) R2 3:48 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Jul 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 20 of 30 66% 137 of 154 1 of 2 50% 0 2 3:01
Darrick Minner 0 19 of 35 54% 36 of 55 2 of 2 100% 3 2 4:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 4 of 7 57% 43 of 48 1 of 2 50% 0 1 0:44
Darrick Minner 0 19 of 33 57% 36 of 53 1 of 1 100% 3 2 3:17
2 Darren Elkins 0 16 of 23 69% 94 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:17
Darrick Minner 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 20 of 30 66% 18 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 23
Darrick Minner 19 of 35 54% 14 of 27 4 of 5 1 of 3 5 of 13 4 of 7 10 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 3 1 of 1
Darrick Minner 19 of 33 57% 14 of 25 4 of 5 1 of 3 5 of 12 4 of 7 10 of 14
2 Darren Elkins 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 22
Darrick Minner 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

Angelo picks Darrick Minner because he is the more technical fighter, improving, and has a relentless pace. He expects Minner to take Elkins down and finish with elbows. He likes the under on rounds and the less/less on monkey knife fight, predicting a stoppage. He has Minner in his DraftKings lineup.

under on rounds; less/less on monkey knife fight
"i have derrick minor winning i have derrick minner in my lineup"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks the dog Darren Elkins despite his age (37) and damage taken, because he questions Darrick Minner's cardio after only one fight showing improved stamina. He notes Elkins has not been submitted since 2010 (only loss to Charles Oliveira) and has faced strong grapplers. He expects Minner to have early success but fade, allowing Elkins to finish late. He calls this the hardest fight to call on the card.

Elkins by second round finish (KO or sub)
"i'm gonna side with the dog and darren elkins... i'm going to say that elkins pushes a pace that manor is not going to be able to keep up with"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Cody picks Elkins as a dog, citing his experience against top competition and his wrestling and cardio advantages. He thinks Minner's style is erratic and his cardio is suspect, and that if Minner doesn't get a first-round submission, Elkins will grind him out. He notes Elkins is a larger man and should be able to wrestle him.

"i'm gonna go with jared elkins take a dog pick here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darrick Minner

Daniel Levi picks Darrick Minner to dominate, noting that Minner is in the best part of his career with Krause's coaching, while Elkins' best days are behind him. He expects Minner to control the minutes, possibly via doctor stoppage or clear decision, as Elkins cuts easily and gets taken down. Levi warns about Minner's history of being finished but believes Elkins won't win rounds.

"i think minor can open blood on this guy very early"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

Jacob picks Darrick Minner because he thinks Minner will eventually submit Elkins. He notes that Elkins is tough and has fought top competition, but Minner is younger and improving. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight, expecting a grappling-heavy fight with lots of action. He acknowledges that Elkins is always live but thinks Minner gets the job done.

more/more on monkey knife fight
"minor i think eventually we'll we'll submit them some minutes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darren Elkins

The host picks Darren Elkins, citing his durability, wrestling, and experience. He believes Minner's cardio issues will be exposed as Elkins pressures him. He notes Minner's recent decision win was against a weak opponent and that Elkins has not been submitted in over a decade. He likes Elkins by decision at +290 and also mentions Elkins inside the distance at +350.

Elkins by decision +290; Elkins inside the distance +350; Elkins round three +1700 (sprinkle)
"i do like darren elkins in the spot i'm gonna go uh out as an official pick i'm going to go with elkins by decision at plus 290"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a clear dogger pass. He notes Minner's last win was against Charles Rosa, who was complacent on the ground, and that Elkins will try to get back up. He mentions the only person to submit Elkins is Charles Oliveira. He already bet Elkins at +152.

"that was my first bet of the card i found a uh a plus 152"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Darrick Minner

The Guru picks Minner, believing he is underrated and will outscramble Elkins. He criticizes Elkins' recent win over Eduardo Gagori as unimpressive, noting Gagori's padded record. He highlights Minner's wins over Charles Rosa and Terence McKinney, and his competitive grappling with Grant Dawson. He predicts a decision win via outscrambling.

"i'm going to pick him to beat darren elkins and get the job done"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:22 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Teixeira · Nov 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 32 of 72 44% 120 of 168 7 of 21 33% 1 0 7:34
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 0 36 of 78 46% 48 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 12 of 21 57% 55 of 69 5 of 12 41% 0 0 4:06
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 0 5 of 8 62% 9 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Darren Elkins 0 13 of 33 39% 41 of 64 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:40
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 0 18 of 40 45% 26 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Darren Elkins 0 7 of 18 38% 24 of 35 0 of 4 0% 1 0 0:48
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 0 13 of 30 43% 13 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 32 of 72 44% 21 of 58 10 of 13 1 of 1 18 of 55 12 of 15 2 of 2
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 36 of 78 46% 28 of 69 8 of 9 0 of 0 30 of 69 3 of 4 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 12 of 21 57% 8 of 17 4 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 8 of 9 2 of 2
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Darren Elkins 13 of 33 39% 9 of 27 4 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 27 4 of 6 0 of 0
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 18 of 40 45% 14 of 36 4 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 35 2 of 2 2 of 3
3 Darren Elkins 7 of 18 38% 4 of 14 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luiz Eduardo Garagorri 13 of 30 43% 10 of 26 3 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady is confident in Elkins due to Garagorri's poor takedown defense (53%) and Elkins' wrestling. He notes Elkins can submit him and that Garagorri has been taken down multiple times before. However, he is hesitant to bet at -230 and suggests looking at the submission prop.

submission prop
"I'm going to take darren elkins and I know he's towards the end of his career... but the path to victory is written all over the wall here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Darren Elkins

Daniel Levi picks Darren Elkins, but notes he prefers him at underdog odds. He believes Elkins can get takedowns against Garagorri, who has poor takedown defense. Levi is concerned about Elkins' decline and tendency to get cut, but thinks his wrestling will be enough to win a decision. He acknowledges Garagorri's power and potential to cause damage, but sees Elkins as the safer pick.

decision
"i'm gonna go with elkins to win this decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

The host picks Elkins via decision, citing his superior grappling, takedown defense, and cardio. He notes Garagorri's lack of takedown defense and training in Uruguay as weaknesses. He is slightly concerned about Garagorri's power and speed but believes Elkins will drown him with relentless takedowns and top pressure.

"I like elgin's here i don't mind him at the minus 200 range... possible parley piece"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

The MMA Guru picks Darren Elkins to win by unanimous decision. He dismisses Eduardo Garagorri as having not shown up in some fights and lacking competition. He notes Elkins's experience against tough grapplers like Ryan Hall and his ability to avoid submissions.

"i'm definitely gonna go with darren elkins against eduardo gegori"