Raoni Barcelos vs Kurt Holobaugh

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Montel Jackson	1	35 of 66	53%	72 of 104	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:23
Raoni Barcelos	0	21 of 38	55%	33 of 51	6 of 18	33%	2	0	7:45

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Montel Jackson	1	14 of 24	58%	46 of 57	0 of 0	---	0	0:23
Raoni Barcelos	0	3 of 4	75%	7 of 8	2 of 4	50%	1	2:49
2	Montel Jackson	0	13 of 19	68%	15 of 21	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
Raoni Barcelos	0	8 of 17	47%	15 of 25	1 of 7	14%	1	2:14
3	Montel Jackson	0	8 of 23	34%	11 of 26	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
Raoni Barcelos	0	10 of 17	58%	11 of 18	3 of 7	42%	0	2:42

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Montel Jackson	35 of 66	53%	26 of 57	8 of 8	1 of 1	26 of 53	3 of 5	6 of 8
Raoni Barcelos	21 of 38	55%	7 of 18	8 of 11	6 of 9	13 of 30	7 of 7	1 of 1

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Montel Jackson	14 of 24	58%	10 of 20	4 of 4	0 of 0	7 of 13	1 of 3	6 of 8
Raoni Barcelos	3 of 4	75%	0 of 0	2 of 3	1 of 1	2 of 3	0 of 0	1 of 1
2	Montel Jackson	13 of 19	68%	9 of 15	3 of 3	1 of 1	11 of 17	2 of 2	0 of 0
Raoni Barcelos	8 of 17	47%	2 of 7	3 of 5	3 of 5	6 of 15	2 of 2	0 of 0
3	Montel Jackson	8 of 23	34%	7 of 22	1 of 1	0 of 0	8 of 23	0 of 0	0 of 0
Raoni Barcelos	10 of 17	58%	5 of 11	3 of 3	2 of 3	5 of 12	5 of 5	0 of 0

Montel Jackson vs. Raoni Barcelos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-175); Barcelos (+140)

Round 1
The fighters in this next main card offering weigh roughly half of what the two heavyweights in the last bout amassed, and speed kills at 135 pounds. “Quik” Jackson (15-3, 9-3 UFC) saw his mighty six-fight win streak come to a halt last year when Deiveson Figueiredo narrowly outpointed him, so he is in search of getting back in the green. Ageless wonder Barcelos (21-5, 10-4 UFC), who turns 39 next Friday, has won four in a row and could be poised to make a run. Referee Jason Herzog will make sure everything is copacetic.
The longer Jackson takes a few seconds to measure his opponent, and with his long reach, he clips Jackson with a head kick that shakes the elder statesman to his core. Barcelos hits the ground, and Jackson proceeds to hammer him with concussive blows. Barcelos takes them mostly on the chin, surviving and moving enough to stave off Herzog, all while huge strikes collide with his head time and again. Barcelos gets through the initial assault and turns to his knees in pursuit of a takedown, pushing the longer fighter against the wall. When there is no takedown to come from it, he spins out and ducks knowing that Jackson will—and does—swing at him. Jackson’s jab is money, and his follow-up left is destroying Barcelos’ face. Barcelos right eye is swelling and badly damaged halfway through the round.
Ignoring the pain, Barcelos closes in and trips Jackson to the floor. Barcelos climbs on top, and when Jackson tries to set something up off his back, Barcelos powerslams him. Jackson scrambles upon the impact, and Barcelos grabs his shorts in hopes of hanging on. Herzog admonishes him for the foul, and Jackson squirms his way out. Barcelos looks to jab his way in, but the range is a seemingly insurmountable task for the older man when he tries to box. Barcelos has to sell out and rush forward to swing, but when he gets close enough, he grabs hold of “Quik” and hurls him to the mat like a junior high wrestling coach against a new recruit. Jackson turns to his side, and Barcelos starts fishing for rear-naked choke. On the third attempt, it is under the chin, but Jackson is not about to give up. Time is up before the submission is complete.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 2
Herzog informs Barcelos between rounds to not grab the shorts or commit any position-changing fouls lest he deduct a point. They engage again, with Barcelos slowly, methodically working his way in. He looks to counter even with Jackson the far longer man, and he does not sell out or get reckless to advance. When he finds his openings, he draws ever closer, until he is near enough to crash the pocket and go for a level change. Jackson keeps his balance with his back to the cage, and he works his way out and resets.
Barcelos stays pressing the pace, walking through the fire that Jackson swings at him with every single effective blow. Barcelos takes the strikes on the chin and looks to engage his grappling. He does not force the action or put himself off-balance, instead measuring his blows efficiently to set up and further open up offense. Barcelos beats on his opponent until Jackson turns around to give up his back, and with seconds to spare, Barcelos once again goes for the rear-naked choke. The Brazilian wraps his left arm under the chin, and Jackson keeps his hand ready to tap but hears his corner saying he can make it to the bell and does just that.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 3
The grizzled veteran—14 UFC fights to Jackson’s 12—Barcelos goes right after Jackson in the final frame, looking to take the offense out of his opponent and prevent him from landing hard on him. As he controls Jackson against the cage for a prolonged time, he cannot secure a level change. Jackson works his way out, and Barcelos chases him and gives him a right hand on the jaw to think about. Jackson appears surprise, and he fires big punches at Barcelos that Barcelos ducks. Barcelos gets his hands on Jackson, and he sweeps the leg and puts Jackson down.
Jackson works back to his feet and lifts Barcelos off the ground with a knee in the clinch. Barcelos throws one back, and they trade hands up close until Jackson gets the space he was seeking. Jackson doubles up on a jab to the temple, whipping a rear-leg high kick at him that Barcelos blocks in time. Barcelos walks through the offense to wrap his hands around Jackson, where he takes him for a ride with a trip and throw. Jackson bounces back up, and Barcelos looks for a mat return with a single. Barcelos boots Jackson right in the face, bloodying his nose with it, and he lets Jackson charge him to turn that against him. Like the previous two rounds, Barcelos takes the back position and is fishing for a choke. Also like those rounds, there is no truly deep submission, so time expires and it’s all up to the judges. It could go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Montel Jackson via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Montel Jackson

Angelo leans on Montel Jackson, noting his power and wrestling background. He points out that Jackson's three UFC losses came when he couldn't defend takedowns, but believes Raoni Barcelos's age may prevent him from getting takedowns. He worries that Jackson might be gunshy due to wrestling concerns, which could allow Barcelos to win with empty takedowns. He says Montel should win but the fight could get weird.

"I'm going to lean Montel here. But, I am worried that he's going to be gunshy because he's worried about the wrestling."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Montel Jackson

Big Brady picks Montel Jackson but with hesitation. He acknowledges Jackson's talent and power but notes his inconsistency and lack of effort in some fights. He believes if Jackson shows up, he can knock out Barcelos, who is older and has a questionable chin. However, he warns that Jackson could lose if he doesn't try.

Jackson wins by first round knockout

"Give me Jackson here. Jackson to win this fight by first round knockout."

DFS by the Numbers

Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)

Raoni Barcelos

The host notes Jackson has many physical advantages but is mentally inconsistent, often passive and inactive. Barcelos is mentally strong, high output, and aggressive. He believes Barcelos has a good chance if Jackson is not at his best. He prefers Barcelos +3.5 because Jackson lacks killer instinct and often goes to decision, and Barcelos should win at least one round.

Barcelos +3.5 rounds; fight likely goes to decision

"Barcelos very live underdog here, very risky to bet him cuz he's second best everywhere, but if Jackson's not at his best, I think there's a really good chance that Barcelos will outwork him."

Diary of a Pro Gambler

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

James picks Barcelos as an underdog, believing his veteran skills and pocket boxing will overcome Jackson's power. He thinks Barcelos can follow the blueprint from Figueiredo's win over Jackson, using takedowns and pressure to win a decision or late submission.

"I'm going to pick him as the underdog here. I'm going to say Barcelos gets a probably a decision win."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Barcelos is on a four-fight winning streak with improved durability and a well-rounded game. He can use lateral movement, kicks, and wrestling to neutralize Jackson's power. Jackson is gun-shy and struggles against wrestlers. Barcelos has more paths to victory and should win a decision, though he risks getting knocked out if he gets caught clean.

"I think Barcelos has more paths to victory here and I think he can successfully stay away from the knockout power of Jackson."

MMA Lock of the Night

WIN vs Ricky Simón

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Ricky Simón	0	67 of 181	37%	77 of 191	0 of 6	0%	0	1	1:25
Raoni Barcelos	0	82 of 187	43%	86 of 194	1 of 8	12%	0	0	0:09

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Ricky Simón	24 of 52	46%	34 of 62	0 of 2	0%	1	0:45
1	Raoni Barcelos	16 of 33	48%	19 of 39	1 of 3	33%	0	0:09
2	Ricky Simón	16 of 47	34%	16 of 47	0 of 3	0%	0	0:40
2	Raoni Barcelos	32 of 71	45%	33 of 72	0 of 2	0%	0	0:00
3	Ricky Simón	27 of 82	32%	27 of 82	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
3	Raoni Barcelos	34 of 83	40%	34 of 83	0 of 3	0%	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Ricky Simón	67 of 181	37%	57 of 165	9 of 15	1 of 1	58 of 170	3 of 4	6 of 7
Raoni Barcelos	82 of 187	43%	53 of 150	19 of 24	10 of 13	80 of 184	2 of 3	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Ricky Simón	24 of 52	46%	20 of 46	4 of 6	0 of 0	16 of 42	2 of 3	6 of 7
1	Raoni Barcelos	16 of 33	48%	9 of 26	3 of 3	4 of 4	15 of 31	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Ricky Simón	16 of 47	34%	13 of 44	2 of 2	1 of 1	15 of 46	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Raoni Barcelos	32 of 71	45%	21 of 57	8 of 9	3 of 5	32 of 71	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Ricky Simón	27 of 82	32%	24 of 75	3 of 7	0 of 0	27 of 82	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Raoni Barcelos	34 of 83	40%	23 of 67	8 of 12	3 of 4	33 of 82	1 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raoni Barcelos vs. Ricky Simon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Simon (-160); Barcelos (+130)

Round 1
Sticking to the bantamweight division but flipping over to men, a pair of relative elder statesmen in the promotion come to blows with hopes of pushing their unlikely win streaks one step forward. Some six and a half years after getting wasted by Urijah Faber and totally written off, Simon (22-6, 10-5 UFC) has gone on a pair of respectable runs since then. The same can be said for 38-year-old Barcelos (20-5, 9-4 UFC), who once had a rough patch where he dropped four of five. Someone’s fortuitous stretch is about to crash into the proverbial wall, and referee Keith Peterson will follow the athletes every step of the nonsense-free way. Fists are bumped before they are traded.
Simon sprints to the center of the cage and looses a head kick that goes wide. He pushes out a front kick, and Barcelos whizzes past him with a fireball of a right hand. Barcelos jabs the body and allows Simon to leap at him, staying out of range so there is no strike to come from it. Simon sticks the Brazilian and moves, and Barcelos strides forward and is belted with an uppercut. Barcelos takes it well, and the two consider grappling but bail on it to brawl it out. Both men are putting everything into their swings, and Barcelos clips Simon and then shoots in for a double. Simon scrambles wildly and flips Barcelos over, where he starts smacking Barcelos around with high-arcing hammerfists.
Simon lashes out with elbows while Barcelos keeps him contained with butterfly hooks, and both men trade while in a horizontal position until Barcelos kicks off to stand up. Simon reaches him at the end of a right hand, and Barcelos wings on the overhand right counter. Simon dings the Brazilian with a one-two, and his jab is money. Barcelos smashes Simon in the face with a ruthless right hand, and somehow Simon not only sticks with it but returns fire with an uppercut that nearly lifts his man off the ground. Both men are no worse for wear from the mighty exchange, and Simon tries to sneak in a head kick that is blocked in time. Barcelos opens up upstairs with a pair of punches, and Simon backs him off with jabs. Barcelos tries to take the fight down, and he abandons it to slash out with an elbow up top. A final Simon takedown is blocked to end what was a close, tense round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Simon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 2
Barcelos starts off the round with a double jab and a right hand up top. Simon swings back with a huge overhand right, and Barcelos ducks it and plants a right on the jaw. Barcelos times a thumping calf kick and overswings on a right hand while chasing the man, and Simon knees him in the jaw. Barcelos digs a left to the body, and Simon’s quick kick and right hand greet him in rapid succession. Barcelos scrapes the side of his uppercut off the head, and he drops down for a low single and hurls Simon to a knee. Simon scrambles out of reach and gets back to his feet, only for Barcelos to ring his bell with a crisp uppercut and a power right hand. Barcelos crashes into his foe with a leaping uppercut, and Simon tries to time a double when he lands. Simon pushes Barcelos up against the wire, but the sprawl of Barcelos prevents the Washington native from going anywhere. Barcelos escapes with little more than a knee to the belly, and he allows Simon to circle all the way around him so he can find his angle in. Simon lands first with a right, but Barcelos connects last and the heavier of the two.
Barcelos goes to the body and then head, and he scoops Simon up and deposits him gingerly on the canvas. Simon jumps right back up, and Barcelos does not mind as he can trade hands with his foe. Simon scores an uppercut, and Barcelos reaches him with three punches over the guard. A naked leg kick from Simon is met with a two-punch salvo, and Barcelos rips a right to the body to punctuate the combo. Simon counters a low kick with a right hand, and Barcelos stands firm and jacks him in the jaw with a right hand and an uppercut. Simon dances and keeps Barcelos guessing with awkward movement, entries and exits that rely on speed and potshots with evasive movement. They both shoot at the same time and clash heads like bulls, and proceed to trade punches and kicks to end what is another tight round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 3
The final round opens with the Brazilian pushing the pace. He watches Simon attack and sways to dodge everything but an uppercut, and he storms back to nail Simon with a one-two that forces a takedown shot. Barcelos sits down on a right hand, Simon replies, and Barcelos comes over the top. Barcelos leaps in and lands a right after Simon’s strike connects on him, and Simon’s jab has bloodied the bridge of the Brazilian’s beak. Barcelos rubs his nose and busts Simon in the chops with a stiff right hand. Simon’s one-two also scores, but Barcelos still has the power edge and is putting more strikes together.
Both men go back and forth with their offensive offerings, with Simon just missing an uppercut when Barcelos ducked down. Barcelos jams a knee to the body, and he plants his shin on the side of Simon’s lead leg. Barcelos drops down for a snatch single, and he releases it and busts open Simon’s nose with power punches. Barcelos follows a punch with a high kick, and then goes back to a one-two. Simon’s stabbing jab is effective, as is his overhand right and uppercut to follow, but Barcelos stuns him when landing flush. Barcelos’ rights have Simon’s attention, and Simon tries to walk him down to attack the liver but finds himself in a slugfest. Barcelos goes after a double and bails on it to come back with an elbow, and knees fly from both men effectively after. Simon steps in with a sharp elbow, and both fighters unload their gas tanks and swing for the bleachers. Simon takes a kick in the face and screams for Barcelos to keep engaging, and they bang it out to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-27 Barcelos)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-27 Barcelos)

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Ricky Simon via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Ricky Simón

Angelo picks Ricky Simon because of his non-stop wrestling pace and power in his hands. He believes even if Raoni Barcelos has early takedown defense, Simon's relentless pressure will eventually get takedowns. He notes that Barcelos is aging and that wrestlers are not spectacular off their backs.

"I'm still picking Ricky here. I feel pretty good about it. Ricky's wrestling is non-stop, so even if Haney has early takedown defense, I don't think it's going to remain throughout 15 full minutes."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Big Brady struggles with this pick, noting Simón has looked awful in recent fights and may be slowing down due to accumulated damage. He thinks Barcelos has better striking and both have questionable chins. He leans with the 38-year-old Barcelos to win by decision, but admits it's a sketchy pick.

decision

"I'm going to lean with the 38-year-old and Barcelos to win this fight by decision, but this is one that's definitely sketching me out a little bit."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Cody picks Barcelos, citing his takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and superior boxing volume. He thinks Simón's wrestling will be neutralized and Barcelos will outwork him over three rounds.

"Overall after 15 minutes, Ronnie Barcelos should have the bigger and greater body of work. So he should get the nod in my opinion and I'm gonna pick him."

Bookie Beatdown

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Ricky Simón

Lucrative James is confident in Ricky Simón, going against the market. He believes Simón's wrestling and cardio advantage will be key, as Barcelos ages and has shown a deteriorating chin and gas tank. He expects Simón to mix takedowns and land big overhands, possibly finishing Barcelos. He also notes Barcelos has been hurt in recent fights.

"I'm going to pick Ricky Simone. I think Ricky Simone can hurt and actually finish Barcelos on the feet with big overhands."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Ricky Simón

The host acknowledges Barcelos is the better striker on paper, but believes Simón's wrestling, athleticism, speed, and power will be decisive. He expects Simón to find a big shot and knock Barcelos out.

Knockout

"I believe Barcelos is the better striker on paper, but Simone is the better wrestler and closer to his prime. And I think that should allow him to utilize his athleticism advantage, speed advantage, and power edge."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Paul sees it as a 50/50 fight but likes Barcelos at plus money. He thinks if Simón can't get takedowns, Barcelos's striking and experience will carry him.

"Rowdy at plus 140, plus 150 seems like a decent little shot."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Ricky Simón

The Guru picks Ricky Simón to win by first-round TKO. He believes Simón's well-rounded game and explosiveness will overwhelm the aging Barcelos, who relies on exploiting specific weaknesses. He notes Simón has no glaring holes in his grappling or pressure defense, unlike Barcelos's previous opponents.

round 1 TKO

"I'm going to go Ricky Simone getting this one done by a TKO finish in the first round."

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Cody Garbrandt

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Cody Garbrandt	0	28 of 94	29%	45 of 111	0 of 7	0%	0	1	0:46
Raoni Barcelos	0	37 of 85	43%	43 of 93	1 of 11	9%	0	0	2:26

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Cody Garbrandt	10 of 44	22%	10 of 44	0 of 1	0%	0	0:11
1	Raoni Barcelos	6 of 19	31%	8 of 21	1 of 5	20%	0	0:16
2	Cody Garbrandt	6 of 27	22%	14 of 35	0 of 3	0%	0	0:02
2	Raoni Barcelos	15 of 35	42%	17 of 38	0 of 5	0%	0	0:31
3	Cody Garbrandt	12 of 23	52%	21 of 32	0 of 3	0%	1	0:33
3	Raoni Barcelos	16 of 31	51%	18 of 34	0 of 1	0%	0	1:39

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Cody Garbrandt	28 of 94	29%	23 of 85	3 of 7	2 of 2	22 of 86	6 of 7	0 of 1
Raoni Barcelos	37 of 85	43%	31 of 75	0 of 3	6 of 7	33 of 76	4 of 9	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Cody Garbrandt	10 of 44	22%	10 of 42	0 of 2	0 of 0	8 of 42	2 of 2	0 of 0
1	Raoni Barcelos	6 of 19	31%	5 of 15	0 of 2	1 of 2	4 of 17	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Cody Garbrandt	6 of 27	22%	4 of 24	1 of 2	1 of 1	4 of 24	2 of 3	0 of 0
2	Raoni Barcelos	15 of 35	42%	14 of 33	0 of 1	1 of 1	13 of 28	2 of 7	0 of 0
3	Cody Garbrandt	12 of 23	52%	9 of 19	2 of 3	1 of 1	10 of 20	2 of 2	0 of 1
3	Raoni Barcelos	16 of 31	51%	12 of 27	0 of 0	4 of 4	16 of 31	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raoni Barcelos vs. Cody Garbrandt
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Barcelos (-180), Garbrandt (+150)

Round 1
Of the three Codys competing tonight, Garbrandt (14-6, 9-6 UFC) is the last one to try to get on the board for his namesake. The former champ, who celebrates about 80% of his wins by knockout, takes on a man five years his elder but no less dangerous than ever in Barcelos (19-5, 8-4 UFC). Most notably, the Brazilian derailed the hype train of Payton Talbott in January, firmly ruling out that he was washed up and ready to get tucked into bed. Referee Mike Beltran draws the assignment to watch over the bantamweights, watching them bump fists together to start the match. Garbrandt starts fast, rushing forward with four punches and a head kick. Barcelos bounces off the fence, and Garbrandt surges towards him with a trio of flying fists. Another combo comes from the former champ, and Barcelos ducks it and tries to take him down. Garbrandt hops away and resets, already wary of the possible takedown in play. Garbrandt measures with a single body kick, and he rails Barcelos with three speedy punches. Barcelos drops to a knee, and Garbrandt points at him. As Barcelos stands, he goes after a takedown. Garbrandt ducks away from it, dodges an overhand right and falls to 50/50 when Barcelos looks for a takedown. When the takedown does not materialize, Barcelos leaps at him and splits open Garbrandt’s eyebrow with his knee. Garbrandt backs away, avoiding a flying switch kick as chants for “Let’s go, Cody” echo in the building. Barcelos lands first after they stop calling for the former champ, working the body with a left. Barcelos has a head kick slap off the raised guard, and he rolls with a right hand over the top. Garbrandt swings and misses with a pair of punches, and his second effort to the body gets in. “No Love” shows Barcelos no love by tossing him out of the way, although the Brazilian recovers and fires off an uppercut that gets through. Garbrandt knees up the middle and tags Barcelos with two fast punches, and Barcelos gets his attention with a strong overhand right. Garbrandt thinks about showboating or dancing but evaluates that the strike did some damage and plays it cool. Barcelos attacks a single, and Garbrandt pops out of it and partially checks a calf kick flying at him. Garbrandt has three or four punches land, and he does a little dance. Barcelos takes him down, and Garbrandt gets away with an illegal upkick while scrambling. Barcelos climbs into top position, lands a few hammerfists, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garbrandt
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garbrandt

Round 2
The fighters high-five before getting after it, and Barcelos is quick to engage his wrestling. Garbrandt’s overhand right goes wide, and he plants his feet to defend the takedown effort. Another try also comes up short, and Garbrandt pushes off and loads up on quick punches. Barcelos chases Garbrandt around the outer edge of the cage, chambering and firing a right hand but missing with the follow-up. Barcelos chops down the front leg, and he ducks down and eats a right hand while looking for a single. When the takedown is not successful, Barcelos clips him with two right hands. Garbrandt defends a double, but a knee up the middle from the Brazilian tags him cleanly. Garbrandt puts out two punches that further develop some swelling on Barcelos’ right cheek, but Barcelos ignores it and shoots for a single. Garbrandt stuffs it, turns his man to the side and elbows him cleanly for it. Barcelos keeps the pressure up, walking through a low kick and a body shot to catch “No Love” with his overhand right. Barcelos times a crisp uppercut and drops down for a single, lifting Garbrandt’s leg way up in the air. Garbrandt still stays upright, takes a right hand and puts his leg down. Barcelos connects with another big right, and he reaches out with one to the midsection. Barcelos jabs his way forward, scooting back to avoid all but a left hand in a combination. Garbrandt rolls with a right hand on the way out, but the jab from the Brazilian is finding its home repeatedly. Barcelos loads up on a right hand and ducks down, before unleashing another right hand that nearly puts the champ down. The round ends with Garbrandt shooting for a desperation takedown.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 3
There is a final glove touch, and Barcelos gets right back to pressuring. Garbrandt keeps him at bay for less than a second with a body kick, as Barcelos walks him down behind his overhand right. Garbrandt shoots for a single, and Barcelos laughs it off. A second takedown from Garbrandt is nowhere near being successful, and Barcelos pays him back with a calf kick that turns Garbrandt’s knee. Garbrandt gives him back two low kicks to think about, and he absorbs a flush right hand when circling away. Barcelos kicks at his front leg again, setting up his jab and right hand. Garbrandt rushes forward but is out of range for his combo, and he gets sat down with a leg kick. The former champ shoots for a takedown and finds his way into a guillotine choke setup, but he breaks out of is as he leans against Barcelos. The Brazilian breaks free, and Garbrandt connects at the end of a right and a left. Barcelos clubs him with a one-two that forces the striker to shoot in on his hips, and he holds Garbrandt down and circles around to the side in hopes of taking the back. Barcelos manages to take the back after softening Garbrandt up, and he sneaks a hook in. “No Love” lands some no-look punches, but Barcelos is singularly focused on shutting down any hopes of escape. Garbrandt pushes his feet on the wall to turn himself around, where he drops down two punches before Barcelos explodes. The two fighters burst back to their feet and start slugging it out, with Garbrandt landing flush and Barcelos doing the same. Garbrandt waves him on, and Barcelos instead backs off. Garbrandt scores a right hand and is chucked out of the way like a child’s plaything when attempting a single. Garbrandt points to the ground to initiate a brawl, but Barcelos goes the opposite direction and evades him until the fight wraps. Barring something unexpected, all three Codys struck out tonight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-27 Barcelos)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Barcelos)

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Cody Garbrandt via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Cody Garbrandt

Angelo leans Cody because he is faster and has power, while Raoni lacks power in his hands. He warns that Cody must avoid getting taken down. He is not confident enough to bet on Cody given his recent struggles.

I don't think I'm going to bet

"I think I'm going to slightly lean Cody here. I think he'll be a little faster."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Cody Garbrandt

Big Brady picks Cody Garbrandt by second-round knockout. He believes Garbrandt's takedown defense is elite (80%) and that he can keep the fight standing. He notes Barcelos is 38 with a questionable chin, and Garbrandt has the power to knock him out. He acknowledges multiple outcomes but leans toward a knockout.

second round knockout

"Cody Garbrandt stuffs the takedowns, keeps it on the feet, lands a big shot, and knocks out the 38-year-old Hani Barcelos in the second round."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Connor picks Barcelos, emphasizing that Garbrandt's wrestling has declined and that Barcelos's chain wrestling and takedown variety will be a major threat. He notes that Garbrandt's tunnel vision when he feels confident often leads to him getting taken down, as seen against Figueiredo. Connor also points out that Barcelos is 38 and chinny, so Garbrandt could still knock him out, but Barcelos's wrestling should be the deciding factor.

Garbrandt opened at +117, now +159; Barcelos opened at -153, now -183. Connor agrees the line should not be too wide.

"I'm picking barcellos but i like the fight this is a good this is a good use of both men"

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Cody Garbrandt

Despite public love for Barcelos after his upset win, Garbrandt has good takedown defense and superior striking. He will chip away at Barcelos and win a decision.

"I think Garbrandt has good enough takedown defense and the ability to put together a better striking game... pulling off the upset and winning this fight on the scorecards."

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

The Guru picks Raoni Barcelos, stating he is 'done with Cody Garbrandt.' He criticizes Garbrandt's fundamental flaws in striking and grappling, such as giving up his back and poor low kicks. He notes Barcelos has faced tough competition and fraud-checked Payton Talbott. He expects Barcelos to win by decision or TKO in the second round.

"I'm just going to go with Hani Barcelos. I think I think I'm done with Cody to be honest. ... I can't pick Garbrandt to win a fight in 2025."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Zane picks Barcelos, citing his deep wrestling game and ability to chain takedowns, which should be effective against Garbrandt's shaky takedown defense. He notes that Garbrandt has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers and that Barcelos's wrestling has improved with age. However, Zane acknowledges that Barcelos's striking has become a liability and that Garbrandt still has one-punch power, making this a dangerous fight for both.

Garbrandt opened at +117, now +159; Barcelos opened at -153, now -183. Zane says if Garbrandt becomes a much bigger underdog, he might become a bet.

"I have to pick barcellos but like these guys are at a point in their career where they are asking each other the right questions"

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Payton Talbott

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Raoni Barcelos	0	49 of 84	58%	59 of 95	1 of 1	100%	0	0	1:25
Payton Talbott	0	62 of 85	72%	91 of 115	8 of 15	53%	2	0	9:43

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Raoni Barcelos	2 of 2	100%	2 of 3	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
1	Payton Talbott	8 of 11	72%	19 of 23	3 of 4	75%	1	4:51
2	Raoni Barcelos	25 of 44	56%	26 of 45	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Payton Talbott	17 of 22	77%	23 of 28	3 of 8	37%	0	2:35
3	Raoni Barcelos	22 of 38	57%	31 of 47	1 of 1	100%	0	1:25
3	Payton Talbott	37 of 52	71%	49 of 64	2 of 3	66%	1	2:17

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Raoni Barcelos	49 of 84	58%	39 of 74	7 of 7	3 of 3	37 of 67	7 of 10	5 of 7
Payton Talbott	62 of 85	72%	59 of 81	2 of 3	1 of 1	18 of 30	5 of 5	39 of 50

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Raoni Barcelos	2 of 2	100%	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 1	1 of 1	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Payton Talbott	8 of 11	72%	8 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	8 of 11
2	Raoni Barcelos	25 of 44	56%	21 of 40	2 of 2	2 of 2	25 of 44	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Payton Talbott	17 of 22	77%	14 of 19	2 of 2	1 of 1	11 of 16	2 of 2	4 of 4
3	Raoni Barcelos	22 of 38	57%	18 of 34	4 of 4	0 of 0	11 of 22	6 of 9	5 of 7
3	Payton Talbott	37 of 52	71%	37 of 51	0 of 1	0 of 0	7 of 14	3 of 3	27 of 35

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raoni Barcelos vs. Payton Talbott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Talbott (-1200), Barcelos (+750)

Round 1
A red-hot commodity in flashy, undefeated Talbott (9-0, 3-0 UFC) will serve as the preliminary headliner, hoping to wrest the torch from aging Brazilian Barcelos (18-5, 7-4 UFC) in a pivotal bantamweight affair. Talbott has only heard the final bell one time, while his opponent can say he has been involved with more decisions than Talbott has pro fights. Referee Herb Dean will serve as the arbiter of this bout, and the fighters acknowledge him and one another but do not tap their gloves together. Barcelos starts the fight by leaping at Talbott’s left leg, pursuing a single without letting the youngster get started. Talbott backs himself to the wall and sets up a guillotine choke, but the veteran trips him up and puts him on his seat without fear of the submission. Talbott is loudly warned by grabbing inside of Barcelos’ gloves, and he wall-walks to get back up and lean against the fence. Barcelos laces his legs between his opponent’s in hopes of snaking him down, and he jumps on Talbott’s back to further threaten him. Talbott shakes him off, and Barcelos tries again to be a malicious backpack but settles for pulling the unbeaten fighter face-first to the floor. Barcelos wraps his leg around the waist for a single hook, and Talbott is once more warned for foot grabs. Barcelos times a Talbott scramble perfectly to wrap his forearm around the neck, only to let it go so he can start slugging Talbott on the side of the head. Talbott turns to his side while under fire, and he fights off a choke and finds himself in a second. Barcelos does not have the choke under the chin and is more neck/face cranking him to make his life miserable, and he once more releases it to shift into full mount. The Brazilian drops down a powerful elbow and he moves to half guard to he can set up an arm-triangle choke, squeezing down hard but not going for broke to get it done. Talbott remains calm and composed despite getting dominated, and Barcelos leaps over him and holds him down from the other side while in half guard. Barcelos gets directly to full mount like a hot knife cutting through butter, and he lets Talbott give up his back so he can go for one final choke before time runs out in the round. The one-sided round ends before Barcelos can get it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos

Round 2
The fighters race towards one another to start the second round, and Talbott is the aggressor as he pushes jabs out to keep Barcelos honest. Barcelos scores a few low kicks, but one is met with a right hand over the top. Barcelos shoots, and Talbott shuts him down. As Talbott slides forward to strike, Barcelos deftly trips him up and places him flat on his back. Barcelos lands immediately in half guard, and he is active on top. Talbott scrambles to get to his knees, and he takes a knee on the chin while freeing himself. Talbott walks Barcelos down with long, straight punches, and Barcelos returns fire with a right hand that leads into a clean takedown. The Brazilian hits the mat on top in side control, and he leaps into full mount uncontested. Barcelos gets a little high, and before Talbott can buck him off or sneak out the back, he moves himself down a bit. This does not matter, as Talbott still escapes to get up, but not before taking a knee on the liver. Talbott is surprised by the strike, opening Barcelos up to nail him with a spinning back fist. The prospect walks forward ready to trade, and he connects with a few punches only to get nailed with a right hand on the way back. Talbott smiles and waves him on, as he is much more comfortable in a wild striking exchange than a grappling affair. Talbott shucks off a takedown and connects with a powerful uppercut, and he fights off another takedown try. On the third, Barcelos manages to wrangle Talbott to the floor, and he gets to half guard and hops to the side to drop down a powerful elbow. As Barcelos is about to set up a crucifix, the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 3
The bantamweights get right to it to start off the last round, with Talbott pressuring fully and clipping Barcelos with an uppercut. A few more punches are strung together, and Barcelos goes after a telegraphed takedown. Talbott sees it coming and hits a beautiful throw that reverses the Brazilian and puts him on the mat. As “USA” chants echo through the Intuit Dome, Barcelos worms his way to the fencing but absorbs some ground-and-pound to get there. Talbott scores a few punches, and Barcelos tosses his leg up to hook an omoplata shoulder lock. As he does this, he hooks his hand in the fence, and Dean sees it and pauses the fight. Dean offers to take away the position from the foul, and when Talbott says no, they resume in the position they left off. Barcelos explodes back to his feet and blasts the youngster with a flurry of punches, including a flying knee that does some damage. Talbott responds with a flying knee that rocks the Brazilian, and as they both hit the ground from wild strikes, they climb back up and trade again. Barcelos backs off to take some breathes, and Talbott drops his hands and marches forward like a Terminator. Barcelos fakes a level change, and Talbott answers with a spinning wheel kick that slaps him in the face. Barcelos grins and attacks another takedown, landing it and taking some of the wind out of the American’s sails. Talbott turns to his knees, and Barcelos follows him every step of the way and wraps his legs around his waist. Barcelos slides into full mount when Talbott turns to his back, and he sets up an arm-triangle choke. Barcelos releases the choke and sits up to wrench on the arm with an unorthodox straight armbar, and he switches gears for a rear-naked choke that is not under the chin. Talbott signals a thumbs-up, and Barcelos lets it go to pound on Talbott with punctuating ground-and-pound. Barcelos unleashes a fury of punches and elbows, laying down one final bombardment that only ends with 15 minutes elapsing—a few more seconds and he might have gotten the stoppage. The elder statesman put on a show here, shutting down the likely formerly unbeaten prospect and spring what may be “Upset of the Year” with Talbott closing with a betting line around -1200. What a performance, as Barcelos appears to have found the fountain of youth at the tender age of 37.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Payton Talbott via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Payton Talbott

Angelo is extremely confident in Payton Talbott, citing his youth, speed, and striking ability. He believes the age and speed gap will be decisive and expects Talbott to potentially knock out Barcelos. He warns against betting Talbott at -1200, calling it too risky.

Do not bet on -1200 favorite.

"pyon talot should win this fight now should you bet on him no these are fist fights minus 1200 is far too gone"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Payton Talbott

Cody picks Payton Talbott confidently, viewing him as a rising star. He notes Talbott's exceptional striking, athleticism, and rapidly improving takedown defense. Cody points out that Barcelos is 37 and has slowed down, with recent losses showing regression in wrestling, striking defense, and reflexes. He believes Talbott's speed and power will be too much, and that Barcelos's best days are behind him. Cody expects Talbott to win dominantly, possibly by knockout.

No specific prop bet mentioned, but Talbott is part of the Saftic Super Boost parlay.

"I'm not stepping in front of the tow but... I thought about this long and hard I was like what at what number would I consider betting rowny"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Payton Talbott

Daniel picks Talbott by knockout, citing his volume, power, and swag. He notes that Barcelos is almost 40 and has taken too much damage in recent fights. Daniel mentions that Barcelos is a savvy vet but Talbott is quicker, younger, and more durable. He says he cannot lay -1200 but expects Talbott to win by knockout.

Daniel picks Talbott by knockout. He says he cannot lay -1200 but expects a flashy finish.

"I'm gonna go pay and Tabet here by knockout"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Payton Talbott

The host is a huge Barcelos fan but acknowledges Talbott is a much slicker striker who uses speed and power to land big shots. He expects Talbott to put Barcelos away in under one and a half rounds.

under 1.5 rounds

"he's going up against a much Slicker Striker who utilizes speed and power to land big shots on celos and put him away in under one and a half rounds"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Payton Talbott

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Talbott. He notes that Talbott looks like he's in the Matrix and is a new-generation fighter. Paul believes Barcelos is too slow and past his prime, and that Talbott's speed and striking will be decisive. He also mentions that Barcelos has been taken down and outworked by younger fighters recently. Paul is not stepping in front of the Talbott train.

No specific prop bet mentioned.

"I'm not stepping in front of talbet here bro"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Payton Talbott

The MMA Guru picks Payton Talbott to win by TKO. He notes Barcelos' chin is deteriorating with age (37), and Talbott is a big bantamweight with reach advantage. He worries about Talbott's activity and social media distractions but believes he will catch Barcelos on the feet. He predicts a KO late in the first or second round.

TKO

"I'm actually going to go with another KO win for pton tabot maybe late in the first or in the second round"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Cristian Quiñonez

Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:04 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Raoni Barcelos	0	29 of 82	35%	43 of 99	2 of 7	28%	0	0	3:13
Cristian Quiñonez	0	43 of 74	58%	48 of 81	2 of 12	16%	2	0	1:02

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Raoni Barcelos	4 of 20	20%	17 of 35	2 of 6	33%	0	3:13
1	Cristian Quiñonez	12 of 16	75%	13 of 18	1 of 5	20%	0	0:19
2	Raoni Barcelos	18 of 49	36%	19 of 51	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
2	Cristian Quiñonez	20 of 44	45%	22 of 46	0 of 6	0%	1	0:15
3	Raoni Barcelos	7 of 13	53%	7 of 13	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Cristian Quiñonez	11 of 14	78%	13 of 17	1 of 1	100%	1	0:28

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Raoni Barcelos	29 of 82	35%	17 of 67	3 of 6	9 of 9	26 of 75	3 of 7	0 of 0
Cristian Quiñonez	43 of 74	58%	26 of 54	5 of 7	12 of 13	38 of 68	4 of 5	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Raoni Barcelos	4 of 20	20%	2 of 17	1 of 2	1 of 1	3 of 17	1 of 3	0 of 0
1	Cristian Quiñonez	12 of 16	75%	7 of 11	1 of 1	4 of 4	11 of 14	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Raoni Barcelos	18 of 49	36%	13 of 42	1 of 3	4 of 4	16 of 45	2 of 4	0 of 0
2	Cristian Quiñonez	20 of 44	45%	15 of 36	2 of 4	3 of 4	16 of 40	3 of 3	1 of 1
3	Raoni Barcelos	7 of 13	53%	2 of 8	1 of 1	4 of 4	7 of 13	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Cristian Quiñonez	11 of 14	78%	4 of 7	2 of 2	5 of 5	11 of 14	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raoni Barcelos vs. Cristian Quinonez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Barcelos (-175), Quinonez (+145)

Round 1
Wrapping up the preliminaries with a bantamweight clash, 27-year-old Mexico native Quinonez (18-4, 1-1 UFC) wants to usher in a new generation of fighters and boot out aging competitors like Barcelos (17-5, 6-4 UFC), age 36. To keep things on the up-and-up, referee Bladimir Puga will take charge in the cage. There is a quick glove touch to precede the action, and Quinonez reaches out with multiple jabs only to get pushed back by a front kick. Barcelos chops down the lead leg with a kick, and he shoots in for a single that gets stuffed. Quinonez reaches him with a long right hand, and he flicks out a jab and a right to follow. Barcelos lands a low kick and drills the Mexican in the side of the head with a right hand, and Quinonez reels and backs himself to the cage. Barcelos attempts a takedown, and Quinonez stops it and turns him around against the wall. Quinonez drives a knee to the solar plexus, and he hangs on Barcelos to take some of the sting out of his shots. Barcelos tries for a throw, and both men climb back up. Barcelos tags his man with a right hand, and Quinonez reels and retaliates with a quick left hook. Barcelos swings with bad intentions, and Quinonez smoothly dodges the offense and prepares his counters. When Barcelos lands a single low kick, Quinonez greets him with four punches to the body and head. Barcelos continues moving forward, landing a double and dragging Quinonez to the floor. Quinonez pops back up, and he succeeds in wrenching Barcelos to the mat briefly in response. Quinonez looks for a body lock takedown, and Barcelos grabs the fence to prevent himself getting taken down as Puga slaps his hand. Barcelos again tugs on the cage to stop a takedown, and Puga once more warns him loudly while slapping his hand. Barcelos takes a few knees to the head, and Barcelos gets pulled away from the cage briefly. Barcelos gets away with another fence grab, and he spins with an elbow that grazes off the head. Quinonez wrestles his man to the mat in a scramble, and Puga shouts to Barcelos to not grab the cage. Quinonez sits on top of his opponent in partial side control, and he rains down right hands and an elbow to conclude the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Quinonez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Quinonez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Quinonez

Round 2
The bantamweights touch gloves to get started in the second round, and Barcelos hops out with a leg kick. Quinonez flicks out a high kick and aims one low, and he pushes out a jab before Barcelos can meet him with a response. Barcelos charges with two right hands, and Quinonez shoulder rolls and keeps flowing to not eat any further strikes from the Brazilian. Quinonez kicks low and high, with the second shot blocked. Quinonez parries a strike coming his way, and he absorbs a low kick after missing a right hand. Barcelos lands a leg kick, and he backs his man off with two lunging punches. Quinonez resets and wings a right, and he prods the Brazilian’s nose with a few jabs. Barcelos comes up short on a shovel uppercut, and Quinonez keeps his range with jabs. Barcelos sits down on a leg kick, and he shrugs off a right hand so he can land two of his own. They both jab at the same time, and Barcelos reaches out to connect with a heavy right hand. Quinonez retaliates with a blistering right hand, and as he staggers the Brazilian, he finds himself getting taken down. Quinonez stands back up, and he gets rocked with a right hand coming his way. Quinonez drops to a knee, and Barcelos blasts him in the chest with a knee. Quinonez protests, and Puga says it was legal, so Barcelos sprints at him and hurts him with a combination. As Quinonez is in sudden danger, Barcelos grips hold of a standing guillotine choke to boot. Barcelos cannot complete the submission, and he backs off to take a breath. Both men start trading shots, and as Barcelos starts to fade, Quinonez stays in his face and tags Barcelos with a straight right hand. Barcelos goes for a single, and Quinonez springs to the side to stay on his feet. Both men land with right hands, and Barcelos gives chase to toss out two more. Quinonez dings his foe with a leg kick and two punches, and Barcelos walks him down and lands one punch behind the ear. The two crash together right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Quinonez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Quinonez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Quinonez

Round 3
The last round opens with Quinonez trying to keep his distance, popping an oncoming Barcelos with chipping kicks and jabs. Barcelos gives chase all the while, landing occasionally, but Quinonez connects more actively. Barcelos telegraphs with big right hands, and Quinonez sees them coming and sways just enough to avoid them. Barcelos kicks him in the ribs twice, and when Quinonez responds with his own body kick, Barcelos grabs the leg and tosses Quinonez down to the canvas. Barcelos shifts to get into half guard, and he ultimately takes Quinonez’ back in a scramble.
Barcelos fastens a rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye, and it is now academic at this point. Barcelos squeezes and exerts every remaining bit of his energy to complete the submission, and Quinonez has no choice but to surrender in a fight he had done well to that point.
This a crucial win for the 36-year-old, whose place on the UFC roster may have been at risk with a loss. As Barcelos celebrates his win, he also expresses a great deal of pain and hangs his left hand low, indicating that he may have sustained a shoulder injury early in the match.

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Cristian Quinonez R3 2:04 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Cristian Quiñonez

Angelo picks Quiñonez as the underdog, citing Barcelos' age (36) and recent skid. He notes that Barcelos has lost to fighters he shouldn't have and that lower weight classes age out faster. He believes Quiñonez is younger, fresher, and more durable.

"Underdog pick Christian konas he is not the better fighter in this matchup but he is absolutely the younger fresher more durable fighter"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Cristian Quiñonez

Big Brady picks Cristian Quiñonez to win by first-round knockout, but with low confidence. He notes that if this fight were three years ago, he would max bet Barcelos, but Barcelos is now 36, looks older, and has durability and cardio issues. Quiñonez has power and is nine years younger, and Barcelos has been finished multiple times. However, both fighters have questionable durability, and Brady expects someone to get finished.

Quiñonez wins by KO in round 1

"I'm going to take Quinones here to to land a big shot and knock knock out barcelos I think somebody is getting served here though both these guys are are both these guys I do think can be finished but …"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Cody picks Barcelos, citing his superior boxing, wrestling, and experience. He notes Quiñonez has been finished in all his losses, has poor takedown defense, and gives up his back. Barcelos is a seven-time Brazilian national wrestling team member and has sharp counter-punching. He thinks Barcelos can make mistakes and still win.

"I gotta go with my boy rowny Bellos normally because I'm a big rowny Bellos you know Fanboy"

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Cristian Quiñonez

The host believes Quiñonez's volume striking and footwork from distance will give Barcelos trouble. He notes Quiñonez's speed advantage and output, and his ability to stay away from pocket exchanges where Barcelos is dangerous. He also mentions Quiñonez's takedown defense and get-ups, and cautions that he must not get overzealous like in the Kong fight. He predicts a decision victory for Quiñonez.

"I think konz has the type of style that will give marcelos issues the volume style and footwork heavy style of konas from distance will allow him you to to use his speed advantage and output to try to touch …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Barcelos. He notes Quiñonez seems KO-robust but Barcelos has the skills to neutralize him. He mentions Barcelos completely neutralized Trevon Jones, outlanding him 73-11 in significant strikes. He thinks Barcelos is a fine parlay piece at -200.

"rowny seems like a fine parlay piece at minus 200 to me"

Bookie Beatdown

LOSS vs Kyler Phillips

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Kyler Phillips	1	72 of 187	38%	80 of 196	1 of 4	25%	0	0	0:47
Raoni Barcelos	0	46 of 116	39%	52 of 124	3 of 11	27%	0	0	1:42

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Kyler Phillips	1	30 of 68	44%	31 of 69	0 of 2	0%	0:11
1	Raoni Barcelos	0	18 of 45	40%	20 of 48	1 of 3	33%	0:30
2	Kyler Phillips	0	22 of 58	37%	29 of 66	1 of 1	100%	0:36
2	Raoni Barcelos	0	9 of 27	33%	11 of 30	1 of 5	20%	0:54
3	Kyler Phillips	0	20 of 61	32%	20 of 61	0 of 1	0%	0:00
3	Raoni Barcelos	0	19 of 44	43%	21 of 46	1 of 3	33%	0:18

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Kyler Phillips	72 of 187	38%	40 of 146	18 of 26	14 of 15	62 of 174	6 of 8	4 of 5
Raoni Barcelos	46 of 116	39%	20 of 87	15 of 17	11 of 12	39 of 105	7 of 10	0 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Kyler Phillips	30 of 68	44%	14 of 48	9 of 13	7 of 7	26 of 63	4 of 5	0 of 0
1	Raoni Barcelos	18 of 45	40%	12 of 38	4 of 4	2 of 3	13 of 37	5 of 7	0 of 1
2	Kyler Phillips	22 of 58	37%	16 of 51	3 of 4	3 of 3	17 of 51	1 of 2	4 of 5
2	Raoni Barcelos	9 of 27	33%	2 of 20	5 of 5	2 of 2	8 of 26	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Kyler Phillips	20 of 61	32%	10 of 47	6 of 9	4 of 5	19 of 60	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Raoni Barcelos	19 of 44	43%	6 of 29	6 of 8	7 of 7	18 of 42	1 of 2	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raoni Barcelos vs. Kyler Phillips
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Phillips (-198), Barcelos (+164)

Round 1
Kevin MacDonald will ref this bantamweight pairing. Phillips opens with a leg kick and a 1-2. Barcelos blocks a body kick. A right connects for the Brazilian. Phillips with a stiff jab and then he partially lands an overhand right. Barcelos catches a low kick and drives Phllips into the fence. Phillips jumps guard and hunts for an armbar. He kicks Barcelos off him and hustles back up. Barcelos with a right uppercut. They trade, and Barcelos eats a head kick but catches the leg. Phillips frees himself from the body lock. Phillips moves well, landing a 1-2. Phillips has a takedown stuffed and Barcelos tags him on the exit. Moments later, a right puts Barcelos on his seat. Barcelos recovers quickly, however. Barcelos is cut on the bridge ofhis nose. Barcelos stalks his man against the fence and lands some combinations. They tie up and Barcelos is still throwing heavy leather. Phillips fires back. Barcelos flicks out a nice jab then backs up Phillips with some heavy hooks. They clinch and Phillips shoves him off. Phillips lands a glancing head kick that Barcelos catches. They continue to trade until the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Phillips

Round 2
Phillips lands a two-punch combo, catches a leg and takes Barcelos to the mat. Phillips drops some elbows while Barcelos is active with his guard. Barcelos eventually scrambles up. Barcelos blocks a high kick. Phillips with a leg kick. The pace has slowed from Round 1. Barcelos lands a right and a left hook, then shoots for a takedown. Phillips denies it. Phillips snaps his foe’s head back with a straight right. Another Phillips high kick is blocked, but he connects with a 1-2. Barcelos changes levels and has Phillips in a body lock. Phillips tries to use a kimura to defend, but Barcelos maintains his grip. He lifts Phillips and dumps him on the mat. Phillips rolls for a kneebar in a scramble and that allows him to stand. Phillips flicks out a couple of jabs. Barcelos pressures forward and they trade knees in close. Phillips fires off another jab and misses a combination at the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Phillips

Round 3
Phillips grabs a leg, lets it go and knees the midsection. Barcelos with a solid low kick. Phillips answers a high kick with a standing side kick to the gut. Phillips stays on the outside, but Barcelos partially lands a knee upstairs. Phillips kicks the body but it bounces off Barcelos’ elbow. Barcelos with an inside leg kick. He catches Phillips’ kick and dumps him to the canvas, but Phillips bounces right up. A Barcelos right uppercut digs to the body. Phillips is content to remain on the outside moving laterally. Barcelos stalks him and lands a jab. Barcelos just misses an uppercut through the guard of his foe. A front kick down the middle lands for Barcelos and he pressures with punches. Phillips lands a counter right in response. Barcelos shoots for a takedown against the fence and briefly pulls him down. Barcelos releases the body lock and deftly throws a kick upstairs. That draws a smile from Phillips before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Phillips)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Phillips)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (29-28 Phillips)

The Official Result
Kyler Phillips def. Raoni Barcelos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Angelo picks Raoni Barcelos despite his recent skid, believing he is the better fighter everywhere except age and youth. He notes Barcelos has superior wrestling, technical striking, and BJJ. He warns that Kyler Phillips is sloppy and lacks one-punch power, so Barcelos should control the fight with wrestling. Angelo has a half-unit bet on Barcelos at +143 but says this is his last time betting on him and advises not to tail blindly.

0.5 units at +143

"Honey's gonna be the pick I think he's gonna use some wrestling here to control this is my last and final time betting on honey bar solos"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Big Brady is very uncertain. He notes Barcelos has elite takedown defense, so Phillips' wrestling won't work. However, Barcelos is 36, on short notice, coming off a brutal KO loss, and has declined. Phillips is coming off a PED suspension. He thinks it will be a close striking match and picks Barcelos by split decision with little confidence, saying he'd rather be on the dog money.

Barcelos by split decision; fight goes to decision

"I'll take barcelos with little to no confidence in this one"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Cody picks Barcelos as a plus-money underdog, citing his well-rounded skills, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Phillips' tendency to fade in later rounds and his questionable takedown defense. He believes Barcelos can survive the first round and take over as Phillips gasses. He also suggests a live bet on Barcelos after the first round.

"I've got faith in him to get the job done plus money"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Daniel Levi picks Raoni Barcelos, though he admits he has no strong read. He likes Barcelos' well-rounded skills (black belt in BJJ, Brazilian wrestling team, good striking) but is concerned about his age (36). Levi notes that Phillips is explosive but slows down badly in fights, and that Barcelos' output and durability could be factors. He is not worried about the Umar Nurmagomedov knockout, crediting Umar's skill. Levi sees this as a tough fight and prefers the dog price on Barcelos.

No specific prop bet. Notes that sharp action has come in on both sides.

"I'm gonna go on the opposite side and take hyony."

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)

Kyler Phillips

James thinks Barcelos is past his prime, citing recent wobbles and a knockout loss to someone with no KOs. He believes Phillips can knock him out and that the minus 200 line is about right. He also mentions Phillips could get takedowns to consolidate rounds.

Phillips by knockout

"I think Kyler Phillips is probably going to knock him out in this spot... I like him to get a finish actually."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)

Kyler Phillips

Phillips has a style that gives Barcelos problems: he moves a lot, uses distance striking and kicks, and stays out of range. Barcelos has a better gas tank and could push into deep waters, but it will be too little too late. The fight is closer than the odds suggest, but Barcelos's time has passed and Phillips is a bad stylistic matchup. I'd rather pass on this matchup entirely.

"I'd rather just pass on this matchup as a whole"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Phillips' cardio issues and Barcelos' wrestling advantage. He mentions that Phillips has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Barcelos is the toughest opponent he has faced. He sees value in the plus money.

"I could never see myself pull the trigger on minus 210 for Kyler Phillips so clear dog or pass situation"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Kyler Phillips

The host picks Kyler Phillips, citing his youth (28), diverse striking, and BJJ. He notes Barcelos is 36, coming off a knockout loss, and has slowed defensively. He believes Phillips will land fight-impacting shots and can capitalize on Barcelos' diminished chin and slower movement. He thinks Phillips may get a finish but is confident in a decision win. He finds the -200 line a bit high but still picks Phillips.

line opened -178, now -200; suggests Phillips lands a big shot

"give me Kyler Phillips to get the job done here"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Umar Nurmagomedov

KO (body kick and punch) R1 4:40 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov	1	36 of 51	70%	36 of 51	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:02
Raoni Barcelos	0	13 of 24	54%	14 of 25	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Umar Nurmagomedov	1	36 of 51	70%	36 of 51	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:02
1	Raoni Barcelos	0	13 of 24	54%	14 of 25	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Umar Nurmagomedov	36 of 51	70%	20 of 32	12 of 13	4 of 6	35 of 50	0 of 0	1 of 1
Raoni Barcelos	13 of 24	54%	6 of 17	5 of 5	2 of 2	10 of 21	3 of 3	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Umar Nurmagomedov	36 of 51	70%	20 of 32	12 of 13	4 of 6	35 of 50	0 of 0	1 of 1
1	Raoni Barcelos	13 of 24	54%	6 of 17	5 of 5	2 of 2	10 of 21	3 of 3	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raoni Barcelos vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-610), Barcelos (+460)

Round 1
The main card kicks off with an important bantamweight tilt between an undefeated up-and-comer in Nurmagomedov (15-0, 3-0 UFC) and an aging but still dangerous Brazilian bomber Barcelos (17-3, 6-2 UFC), with a place in the top 15 on the line. The third man in the Octagon for this one is referee Jason Herzog, who clocks them in despite no touch of gloves. The two are tentative to begin, with 30 seconds of inactivity before Barcelos springs into action with a big right hand. Nurmagomedov shoulder-rolls it and changes stances, and he kicks with both legs. Barcelos sits down on a head kick, and the blocked impact echoes through the UFC Apex. Nurmagomedov looks to curl a right hand round the guard, and he plants a side kick on the breadbasket. Barcelos cuts him off while Nurmagomedov kicks away, and the Brazilian advances slowly and has a body kick connect. Nurmagomedov paws out front kicks like jabs, with the two fighting at safe kickboxing range. Barcelos kicks high and then to the body, and Nurmagomedov answers with one to the ribs of his own. The Brazilian catches his man with a quick right hand, and he crashes forward with two looping shots. Nurmagomedov counters to back him off, and he fires off a head kick that gets blocked. Barcelos defends it and swings a hammer, and Nurmagomedov barely avoids it. When they come together, they clack heads, and Barcelos appears to ask him not to do this. Barcelos shrugs off a pair of front kicks so that he can loose a kick to the side, and he takes a flush jab on the way in. Nurmagomedov chips away with kicks from both legs, and a left hand stuns Barcelos momentarily. Barcelos gathers his wits and continues to advance, throwing so hard that he crashes into the wall and ricochets off it. Nurmagomedov resettles for a small bouquet of kicks as Barcelos advances again.
The Russian lifts his knee up and turns it into a body kick, and he unloads a left hand on the same side to completely separate Barcelos from his consciousness. The Brazilian falls lifelessly to the mat on his back, with the back of his head clattering on the floor, and Nurmagomedov gives chase to drop down one single destructive hammerfist.
Realizing that his opponent is astral traveling, Nurmagomedov pulls back from any further damage, and actually puts his hand on the top of Barcelos' head to check on him like a mother and her child. Herzog sees that this fight is over, and he pulls Nurmagomedov off of the dozing Barcelos. Nurmagomedov appears genuinely concerned for his fallen opponent, and he confirms this by apologizing for destroying him in the post-fight interview. For only the second time of his career, Nurmagomedov has knocked an opponent out, and he is now a flawless 16-0 as a pro.

The Official Result
Umar Nurmagomedov def. Raoni Barcelos R1 4:40 via KO (Body Kick and Punch)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar but criticizes the -950 odds as absurd. He believes Umar's relentless wrestling will eventually get takedowns despite Barcelos' excellent takedown defense. He thinks Barcelos is more well-rounded and dangerous, but Umar's pressure wins a decision. He advises not betting at these odds.

"I think Umar wins this fight ... I do not think he's gonna look like a minus 950 doing it"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently despite the steep odds, calling Barcelos 'not a bum' but noting signs of decline at 35. He believes Nurmagomedov's wrestling will be the toughest test Barcelos has faced, and that he can get the fight to the mat and control him. He expects Nurmagomedov to grind out a decision, as Barcelos has good submission defense and durability. He also notes that Nurmagomedov has competitive striking and flashy kicks, but the grappling advantage should be decisive.

Nurmagomedov by decision

"I'm gonna say normange gets this done I'll say bye decision here"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar but acknowledges Barcelos' takedown defense and wrestling credentials. He thinks Umar will get takedowns and win a decision, and likes the 'Umar by decision' prop at -200. He also mentions Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Umar by decision at -200; Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks

"I honestly think by decision um made of super talented don't get me wrong but he'll have to work a lot harder in this fight"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Connor picks Barcelos because he has excellent takedown defense (95% in the UFC) and is a good striker with power and speed. He notes that Nurmagomedov's wrestling may not be as effective against Barcelos, and that Nurmagomedov's striking lacks depth and consistency. Connor also points out that Barcelos has shown he can compete with wrestlers and that Nurmagomedov hasn't faced significant pushback. He acknowledges the coaching change for Nurmagomedov as a potential factor.

Odds: Nurmagomedov opened -200, dropped to -495, currently -889. Barcelos opened +170, jumped to +385, currently +592. Connor thinks the odds are absurd and that Barcelos is a top-15 bantamweight.

"I'm going to pick Barcelos here because I have yet to see anybody succeed at all against him in the wrestling and it's not the wrestling that has me concerned."

MMA Vivisection

Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Umar Nurmagomedov

Jacob picks Umar but calls the line disrespectful to Barcelos. He notes Barcelos' elite takedown defense and striking, but thinks Umar's chain wrestling will eventually win. He warns that if Umar's first takedown is stuffed, bettors should sweat. He has a separate bet on the fight for premium members.

Has a bet on the fight for premium members

"I think Umar wins but let's put some respect on honey man"

We Want Picks

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul is confident in Umar, calling him the future champion. He notes Umar's striking accuracy and wrestling pedigree, and believes he will win easily. He already parlayed Umar with Ige and Rębecki at -500. He also likes Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Umar over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks; parlayed with Ige and Rębecki at +167

"umar's gonna win he's probably gonna make it look easy"

Bookie Beatdown

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov because he believes the wrestling will be a factor and that Barcelos has trouble creating pace when his opponent succeeds with volume. He notes that Nurmagomedov's variety and pace could overwhelm Barcelos, who struggles to match high output. Zane also points out that Barcelos has failed when his wrestling game isn't working, while Nurmagomedov hasn't been tested in that way. He acknowledges the risk but leans on the 'prove it' side.

Odds: Nurmagomedov opened -200, dropped to -495, currently -889. Barcelos opened +170, jumped to +385, currently +592. Zane thinks the odds are absurd but still picks Nurmagomedov.

"I am going to settle on as I usually do the the prove it side where I'm just like I don't yet have any reason to think like the other thing here is that I wouldn't have picked a single …"

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Trevin Jones

Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Oct 01, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Raoni Barcelos	1	73 of 119	61%	119 of 171	2 of 5	40%	0	0	7:07
Trevin Jones	0	11 of 57	19%	15 of 61	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Raoni Barcelos	0	14 of 23	60%	33 of 43	1 of 3	33%	2:10
1	Trevin Jones	0	4 of 18	22%	5 of 19	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Raoni Barcelos	1	24 of 40	60%	38 of 59	0 of 1	0%	3:04
2	Trevin Jones	0	2 of 12	16%	3 of 13	0 of 1	0%	0:00
3	Raoni Barcelos	0	35 of 56	62%	48 of 69	1 of 1	100%	1:53
3	Trevin Jones	0	5 of 27	18%	7 of 29	0 of 1	0%	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Raoni Barcelos	73 of 119	61%	51 of 95	19 of 21	3 of 3	39 of 75	2 of 3	32 of 41
Trevin Jones	11 of 57	19%	5 of 47	3 of 7	3 of 3	11 of 56	0 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Raoni Barcelos	14 of 23	60%	8 of 16	6 of 7	0 of 0	7 of 15	1 of 2	6 of 6
1	Trevin Jones	4 of 18	22%	1 of 12	0 of 3	3 of 3	4 of 17	0 of 1	0 of 0
2	Raoni Barcelos	24 of 40	60%	18 of 34	4 of 4	2 of 2	10 of 19	0 of 0	14 of 21
2	Trevin Jones	2 of 12	16%	1 of 11	1 of 1	0 of 0	2 of 12	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Raoni Barcelos	35 of 56	62%	25 of 45	9 of 10	1 of 1	22 of 41	1 of 1	12 of 14
3	Trevin Jones	5 of 27	18%	3 of 24	2 of 3	0 of 0	5 of 27	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raoni Barcelos vs. Trevin Jones

Round 1
The “featured fight of the night” slot features two men that could really use a win to turn things around. Both Barcelos (16-3, 5-2 UFC) and Jones (13-8, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) have lost two fights in a row, which means that one man’s losing streak will be coming to an end in the next 15 minutes. The bantamweights calmly walk forward without touching gloves in front of referee Keith Peterson, and there are no fans in the building nor is there any nonsense. It takes 20 seconds for either fighter to engage, with a head kick coming from the Brazilian to lead things off. Jones responds with a swinging punch, and Barcelos is quicker with a few short strikes. Jones kicks low, and the two feint and fake at one another until a front kick from Barcelos impacts on the body. Another head kick gets blocked by Jones, and Barcelos spams a third to end up hitting air. Barcelos charges in forward for a takedown, and Jones gets pushed into the wall but ultimately prevents himself from getting grounded. Barcelos releases him and resets, and he unloads a pounding kick to the ribcage. Jones looks for his own kick, and it goes on the outside of the Brazilian’s lead leg. Dueling front kicks come from the bantamweights, with Barcelos the one that lands. Jones chips at the lead calf with his shin, and he ducks into a crisp right hook. Barcelos lets a head kick fly, and Jones is able to block it in the nick of time. Jones comes out throwing haymakers, but Barcelos’ high guard defends against the strikes and allows him to clip Jones with a left. Barcelos moves to take things down, and as soon as they hit the mat, Jones scrambles and gets to his knees. Barcelos fishes for a choke with his right arm around the neck, but he lets it go to slug Jones in the face and lower Jones to the ground. Barcelos, in half guard, works the side with punches as he softens Jones up and tries to pass guard as the same time. The Brazilian succeeds in passing to full mount, and he presses his forearm on the throat in the form of an Ezekiel choke that makes Jones twist and buck to protect his neck. Barcelos sits up and slashes down with elbows, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos

Round 2
Like the previous round, the two are cautious to engage with much to start the second round. Jones waits with his left hand cocked back, while Barcelos jabs with a few kicks. When Jones reaches out with a right hand, Barcelos loops his own hook around the high guard and dings Jones cleanly. Barcelos swarms him with three punches, and he leaps in the air with a knee that bounces off Jones’ dome. Barcelos lands and pushes Jones back to the wire, but there is no takedown to be had, so he scores a right hand on the break. Jones backs away when a right bears down on him, but he is not keeping Barcelos honest with his own offense. Barcelos strings several kicks together to the leg and body, and a head kick follows suit. Barcelos unloads with a huge right hand from up close, and “5 Star” crumbles to the floor. Barcelos swarms him and arcs down some elbows, while Jones clings to his man so that he does not get pounded out. The Brazilian manages to land a few more elbows before standing up, and he leaps down to get in a better position. As Jones scrambles, he gives up his neck, and Barcelos grabs a guillotine choke. The submission is used to push Jones down to his knees, and he considers a rear-naked choke while hanging on from above. Jones turns around to protect his neck, and as he does, Barcelos rains down several elbows. Multiple unanswered right hands slam into the face of Jones, and the strikes have opened a cut up on the scalp of Jones. The Guam native throws his legs up for a high guard into a triangle, but Barcelos ignores it so that he can beat down Jones with vicious elbows. Before Barcelos can get the finish, Jones is saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos

Round 3
Barcelos is amped up to start off the final frame, and he cuts Jones off and tags him with a left hand. Jones fires back with a kick, but Barcelos is able to intercept him with a huge right hook. Jones reels and gathers his thoughts to launch a broad uppercut, and the Brazilian shifts his head just enough to avoid the blow. Barcelos leaps forward into a left hand, and Jones tries to roll with it but still takes the brunt of it flush. Jones gets his bearings back and walks into a left hand, and he tries to connect with a right hand but gets cracked with a pair of punches that buckle his knees. Jones desperately shoots for a takedown, and the Brazilian stuffs it and pushes him back to the wall. A pair of powerful right hands to the body bend Jones over, but Jones otherwise defends the remainder of Barcelos’ assault until Barcelos backs off. Jones sticks a left high, and the two punches he fires off after whiz past Barcelos’ head. A loud right hand to the body forces Jones to double over again, and Barcelos lets him get his steam back. Barcelos counters a looping left hand with a knee up the middle, and it collides square into the cup. Peterson halts the action immediately, but Jones only needs 20 seconds to catch his breath before he signals he is good to go. When they resume, Barcelos shoots in for a takedown, and he lands in full mount position. Jones hand-fights to protect himself from the oncoming strikes, and when Barcelos breaks the grip, he settles for wrapping his arms around Barcelos’ waist. Barcelos postures up and delivers a little ground-and-pound, and he moves from side control to the other side as he rains down brutal elbows. The elbow barrage continues while Jones shifts and attempts to stand up, and Barcelos does everything he can to go home early. The stoppage does not materialize as Jones keeps moving enough to show he is still intelligently defending himself, and he reaches the final bell in what may be a moral victory.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-27 Barcelos)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Trevin Jones via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-27, 30-27)

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Trevin Jones

Cody picks Trevin Jones by knockout, noting that Jones hits hard and Barcelos has been taking a lot of damage recently. He expects Barcelos to be winning the minutes until he gets caught. He is tempted by the +575 knockout prop but is not as confident as his Trinaldo bet. He suggests playing the moneyline instead of the prop to avoid a decision loss.

Jones by KO +575; may sprinkle on KO prop

"I'll pick Trevin Jones for the purposes of this show don't know if I'm gonna bet it not as confident as Grandpa t"

Bookie Beatdown

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Paul picks Raoni Barcelos by unanimous decision, expecting him to outwork Trevin Jones with higher output, better footwork, and superior hand combinations. He acknowledges Barcelos has slowed down slightly but believes his technical boxing and well-rounded game will be enough to win rounds. He notes Jones has power but low volume, and Barcelos has never been knocked down, so a decision is likely.

"I'm taking another shot with round the thing is I normally play around you very high and now obviously I have to taper off my expectations"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

The MMA Guru picks Raoni Barcelos, believing he is the more consistent and skilled fighter. He notes that Barcelos looks like his old self when allowed to fight at his own pace, and Trevin Jones lacks the volume and pressure to exploit Barcelos's cardio issues. He thinks Barcelos will win a clear decision, as Jones is sloppy and gets backed up easily. He includes Barcelos in his parlay and calls him a favorite double-up.

included in parlay with Castaneda and Brown

"I think Raoni wins a pretty clear-cut decision on this one."

THE MMA GURU

View all 15 fights

Kurt Holobaugh - Fight History

LOSS vs Jordan Leavitt

Submission R1 1:39 · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Kurt Holobaugh	0	0 of 1	0%	7 of 9	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Jordan Leavitt	0	1 of 1	100%	2 of 3	3 of 4	75%	1	0	1:27

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Kurt Holobaugh	0	0 of 1	0%	7 of 9	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
1	Jordan Leavitt	0	1 of 1	100%	2 of 3	3 of 4	75%	1	0	1:27

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Kurt Holobaugh	0 of 1	0%	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0
Jordan Leavitt	1 of 1	100%	1 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Kurt Holobaugh	0 of 1	0%	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Jordan Leavitt	1 of 1	100%	1 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Kurt Holobaugh vs. Jordan Leavitt
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Leavitt (-192), Holobaugh (+160)

Round 1
Sticking to the lightweight division, two men who have alternated wins and losses in their last four could use the W to reverse their fortunes a bit. Holobaugh (21-9, 1 NC; 2-6 UFC) may need this one to stick around in his second stint with the promotion, while “The Monkey King” Leavitt (11-3, 4-3 UFC) could have a little wiggle room should he not prevail. With Dana White’s Contender Series right around the corner, who knows how many defeated competitors will be off the roster come Monday. Referee Mike Beltran will take charge of the cage for as long as this one lasts, and it commences with a swift glove touch. Leavitt springs from side to side as Holobaugh advances towards him, and he pushes out a front kick to set up a takedown. Within seconds, “The Monkey King” wrangles Holobaugh to the mat, where he climbs from side control to half guard to exert heavy top pressure. Holobaugh scoots his way to the fence and gets to a knee, and Leavitt wrenches him back down to the mat and takes his back in a hurry. Holobaugh tries to scramble, and Leavitt slams him down on his face. Holobaugh looks to turn the corner by going after a single on Leavitt, but
Leavitt counters with a guillotine choke and transitions it to an anaconda choke and wraps it up tight. Holobaugh relaxes, possibly too much, and this allows Leavitt to turn him to his back and grip the choke all the way. Leavitt wraps his left leg up and around Holobaugh’s arm to prevent him from defending the submission, and Holobaugh’s efforts are quickly in vain as he goes out cold.
Beltran sees this and intervenes, and Holobaugh wakes up and is upset with Beltran until he learns that he got choked out. This was quick work for the returning Leavitt, who gets his hand raised for the first time in over two years.

The Official Result
Jordan Leavitt def. Kurt Holobaugh R1 1:39 via Technical Submission (Anaconda Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh, calling Jordan Leavitt a one-dimensional jiu-jitsu nerd with poor striking and wrestling setups. He believes Holobaugh's forward pressure, power, and better all-around skills will prevail, though he notes Holobaugh's age (38) and subpar takedown defense as concerns. He placed a half-unit bet on Holobaugh at plus 140.

Bet 0.5 units on Kurt Holobaugh at +140.

"Kurt Hall is going to be the pick. I think we as a sport need to evolve past these super one-dimensional."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Jordan Leavitt

Big Brady picks Jordan Leavitt due to Kurt Holobaugh's terrible takedown defense, which he describes as a huge gaping hole. He notes that Holobaugh was easily taken down by lesser wrestlers like Hernandez and Trey Ogden. Leavitt is a good grappler with improving striking, and Brady expects him to take Holobaugh down and win a decision.

by decision

"I like Kurt Hollow. I want to I want to pick him, but I can't pick him. And the reason being is Kurt Hollow has a huge gaping hole in his game. And it's huge. It's gaping. It's it's one …"

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Jordan Leavitt

Matt picks Jordan Leavitt to win by decision. He notes that Holobaugh has poor takedown defense and is too accepting of being on his back, which plays into Leavitt's strength as a top-position grappler. Leavitt is not great on the feet but should be able to grind out a decision. Matt likes the over 2.5 rounds and Leavitt by decision prop.

fight goes to decision -135, Leavitt by decision +130, Holobaugh by decision +500, Holobaugh by KO +600

"I expect this just to be a grind for us from Leave it, maintaining that top position, grinding this fight out and winning it on the scorecards."

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

The MMA Guru picks Kurt Holobaugh to finish Jordan Leavitt by TKO in the first or second round. He believes Holobaugh's striking and timing will be too much for Leavitt, and that Leavitt won't get an early submission. He notes Holobaugh's ability to get back up from takedowns and work in the clinch, and that the Apex environment benefits Holobaugh.

TKO in round 1 or 2

"I think Curt Hollibar is going to beat Jordan Levit... I'm going to take Curt Hollibar to finish this fight by TKO in the first or second round."

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Alexander Hernandez

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez	0	59 of 149	39%	87 of 186	4 of 5	80%	0	0	6:39
Kurt Holobaugh	0	71 of 171	41%	106 of 215	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:32

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Alexander Hernandez	22 of 68	32%	24 of 70	1 of 1	100%	0	0:09
1	Kurt Holobaugh	26 of 75	34%	26 of 75	0 of 0	---	1	0:14
2	Alexander Hernandez	30 of 62	48%	37 of 75	1 of 1	100%	0	2:01
2	Kurt Holobaugh	38 of 78	48%	48 of 91	0 of 0	---	0	0:18
3	Alexander Hernandez	7 of 19	36%	26 of 41	2 of 3	66%	0	4:29
3	Kurt Holobaugh	7 of 18	38%	32 of 49	0 of 0	---	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Alexander Hernandez	59 of 149	39%	36 of 117	10 of 15	13 of 17	45 of 129	2 of 3	12 of 17
Kurt Holobaugh	71 of 171	41%	39 of 122	21 of 35	11 of 14	63 of 160	8 of 11	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Alexander Hernandez	22 of 68	32%	12 of 51	3 of 8	7 of 9	22 of 68	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Kurt Holobaugh	26 of 75	34%	11 of 49	8 of 16	7 of 10	26 of 75	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Alexander Hernandez	30 of 62	48%	17 of 47	7 of 7	6 of 8	21 of 51	2 of 3	7 of 8
2	Kurt Holobaugh	38 of 78	48%	23 of 58	11 of 16	4 of 4	31 of 68	7 of 10	0 of 0
3	Alexander Hernandez	7 of 19	36%	7 of 19	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 10	0 of 0	5 of 9
3	Kurt Holobaugh	7 of 18	38%	5 of 15	2 of 3	0 of 0	6 of 17	1 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-192), Holobaugh (+160)

Round 1
Must-win fights are the name of the game at this UFC Vegas 104 card, as formerly highly touted prospect Hernandez (15-8, 7-7 UFC) has fallen on hard times as of late, winner of just two of his last six. Meanwhile, Holobaugh (21-8, 1 NC; 2-5 UFC) is on his third run in the Octagon, and this stint is more successful than others in the past as he has won a few times. Referee Kerry Hatley will take charge of the lightweights in this next match, and they start things off by bumping fists. Both men let their legs fly, smacking one another with heavy low kicks to start off. Holobaugh jabs to the body and follows with a high kick that bangs into Hernandez’ chest, and the Texan parries another advance from Holobaugh. Hernandez stands his man up with a left hand, and he slides away from any counter. Kicks on the inside and outside of Holobaugh’s leg land, and he surges into action, swarming forward with punches that catch Hernandez on the chin. They bang heads briefly, and before Hatley can say something, Hernandez stops and asks if Holobaugh is alright. They get right back to it, chasing one another around with powerful punch combinations. Holobaugh sneaks in a body kick, and Hernandez responds in kind. This happens again, just with Hernandez striking first. The lightweights take turns engaging, and they continue mirroring one another with their exchanges. One lands, the other gives him something back to think about, and the series carries on. Hernandez comes out swinging with big fists, and Holobaugh slips them and tries to do the same. When Hernandez has his gloves bang into Holobaugh’s, Holobaugh retaliates with a clubbing right hand behind the ear and floors Hernandez with another right hand. Hernandez springs right back up and sits down on a left hand that momentarily stuns his opponent. Hernandez uses his jab to set up strikes, pumping it and putting at least one or two behind it. Holobaugh is just as active, racing at Hernandez and getting met with a takedown attempt. Holobaugh considers grabbing the cage, but he instead sets up a guillotine choke and hits the ground on his back. He continues squeezing the submission, and Hernandez signals a thumbs-up before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh

Round 2
Holobaugh has a fire lit under his belly between rounds, and he channels that by marching Hernandez down and throwing everything he can at him. Punches, knees, elbows and even a spinning wheel kick come from “The Hurt,” who is putting the hurt on Hernandez in the early going. Hernandez is tough as a two-dollar steak, and he fires back at his constantly advancing foe. Hernandez chops at the lead leg a few times, and Holobaugh has to change stances because of it. This does not slow Holobaugh, who instead plods forward throwing hands. Hernandez catches him with a right hand, and Holobaugh drills him with his own overhand right that staggers the Texan. Hernandez uses the wall behind him to gather his bearings, and he pushes off of it and re-engages. He only lands a few strikes before Holobaugh is back to imposing his volume and will on his quickly bloodied opponent. Holobaugh checks a kick and meets Hernandez with a right hand, and Hernandez sits in the pocket trying to trade back. When Holobaugh overswings with a right hook, Hernandez takes the wind out of his sails by nailing a perfect double-leg takedown. Hernandez keeps Holobaugh on his back, working with ground strikes while Holobaugh rolls for an armbar. Hernandez is having none of it, staying as heavy as he can while drumming him with several left hands. Holobaugh sells out for the armbar, and he does not have the right grip so Hernandez is in no danger. “The Great Ape” hammers Holobaugh with several big punches, mixing between smothering top control and fierce offense. The round ends with Hernandez hacking at his foe with elbows.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh

Round 3
There is one last clap of hands for the lightweights to engage, and Hernandez immediately shoots in for a double and plants Holobaugh on his back. Hernandez moves to side control, and Holobaugh scrambles and sits up. Hernandez drags him down from behind, and he reasserts himself in half guard while isolating an arm-triangle choke. When Holobaugh scrambles, Hernandez is able to jump on top of him and claim full mount for a second before getting pulled back to half guard again. Holobaugh’s scrambles nearly result in him getting caught in an arm-triangle, and Hernandez is a 155-pound lead weight on his chest. Hernandez has his leg wrapped around Holobaugh’s, and when he moves it, Holobaugh explodes back to his feet. It is now punching time, as Holobaugh wants to slug his foe in the chops. Hernandez looks for the takedown that does not come, and Holobaugh marches him down loaded for bear. Hernandez ducks a punch and hits a crucial double, and he lands in half guard and quickly wraps up a head-and-arm choke. Holobaugh is not overly concerned, with Hernandez not able to get leverage on the other side to lock it down. Holobaugh grabs hold of a kimura—could we see a third in consecutive fights?—but it is not there. Hernandez frees his limb and opens up with torrid offense from up top, laying into “The Hurt” with everything he has left. The two go the distance, and the second round may be the one to decide the victor.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh over Alexander Hernandez. He criticizes Hernandez's inconsistency and tendency to wear damage, while Holobaugh's pressure and striking should be effective. Angelo notes that judges favor visible damage, which Holobaugh can inflict. He calls it a 'recipe for success' for Holobaugh.

"I'm actually going to pick Kurt here. I think the pressure the Striking all of that combined with the fact that Alex wears damage on his face and the only thing Vegas judges give a [__] about is tiny little …"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

Big Brady picks Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog, citing Alexander Hernandez's inconsistency, poor cardio, and tendency to crumble under adversity. He notes that Hernandez has lost to fighters like Bill Algeo, Thiago Moises, and Damon Jackson when pressured. Brady believes Holobaugh is tough, has solid cardio, and good grappling, and can have success on the feet as well. He predicts a close decision win for Holobaugh, possibly winning the second and third rounds.

Holobaugh by decision

"I'll take the dog here and Hollow ball to get it done... plus 155 I'll take Hollow ball here to win."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Angela Hill as a dog, citing her high volume and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes that Hill's fights are often close and she tends to fight to the level of her competition. He believes she can exploit Yasmin Lucindo's reliance on takedowns and lack of striking volume.

"Angela Hill dog money is almost kind of like a system play because she kind of fights the level of her competition every single fight. They're very very close. They kind of end up being coin flippy."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

Connor picks Holobaugh because he enjoys rooting for him more, but acknowledges it's a lean. He notes that Holobaugh's relentless pressure and willingness to brawl could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, as seen in his losses to Damon Jackson, Bill Algeo, and Billy Quarantillo. However, he admits Holobaugh makes terrible decisions and is less athletic.

"I think I'm gonna pick Hollabaugh just because I enjoy rooting for him more."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

The host believes Holobaugh will dictate the pace, which is bad for Hernandez. He expects Holobaugh to touch up Hernandez over 15 minutes and potentially find a finish after a bad takedown attempt from Hernandez in deep water, either by knockout or club and sub.

finish by knockout or club and sub

"I believe halah should be able to dictate the pace of this matchup which usually is not a good sign for Hernandez that will lead halot to touching up Hernandez over the course of 15 minutes and potentially even finding …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Angela Hill, emphasizing her experience against Brazilian opponents and her ability to mix takedowns. He notes that Lucindo struggled against Amanda Lemos when taken down and reversed. He believes Hill can bank early rounds with volume and takedowns, then survive the third.

"I'm actually on Angela Hill as well. I mean, uh you can tell that she's slowing down. Her last fight, the speed's there in the first round. The second round, you're starting to see her fade a lot more. body …"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez, liking him at lightweight where he performs better. He notes Hernandez trains at Factory X Muay Thai now and has a win over Jim Miller. He thinks Hernandez's shot selection and leg kicks will be effective against Kurt Holobaugh, who is 38 years old. He also mentions Hernandez can use offensive takedowns while fresh. He considers Holobaugh's win over Trey Ogden but believes Hernandez is a step above.

"I'm going to go with Alexander Hernandez I like him at lightweight does anyone else like Alexander Hernandez at lightweight"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Zane picks Hernandez for athletic reasons, noting that Hernandez is a rock-solid wrestler and hits harder than Holobaugh's recent opponents. He acknowledges that Holobaugh's brawling pressure could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, but believes Hernandez's physical advantages and the fact that Holobaugh makes terrible decisions give him the edge.

Odds: Hernandez opened -218, now -197; Holobaugh opened +178, now +181. Zane calls it a sensible line.

"I'm gonna stick with Hernandez."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Kaynan Kruschewsky

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Kurt Holobaugh	0	92 of 171	53%	171 of 275	1 of 4	25%	0	1	5:21
Kaynan Kruschewsky	0	89 of 156	57%	115 of 195	3 of 3	100%	2	0	2:47

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Kurt Holobaugh	26 of 65	40%	52 of 100	0 of 2	0%	0	0	1:57
1	Kaynan Kruschewsky	31 of 57	54%	38 of 67	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:18
2	Kurt Holobaugh	48 of 79	60%	66 of 101	1 of 2	50%	0	0	1:28
2	Kaynan Kruschewsky	36 of 65	55%	40 of 69	1 of 1	100%	2	0	0:32
3	Kurt Holobaugh	18 of 27	66%	53 of 74	0 of 0	---	0	1	1:56
3	Kaynan Kruschewsky	22 of 34	64%	37 of 59	2 of 2	100%	0	0	1:57

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Kurt Holobaugh	92 of 171	53%	58 of 131	25 of 30	9 of 10	74 of 141	18 of 30	0 of 0
Kaynan Kruschewsky	89 of 156	57%	61 of 120	27 of 35	1 of 1	53 of 114	28 of 33	8 of 9

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Kurt Holobaugh	26 of 65	40%	15 of 49	7 of 11	4 of 5	19 of 50	7 of 15	0 of 0
1	Kaynan Kruschewsky	31 of 57	54%	15 of 39	15 of 17	1 of 1	16 of 39	15 of 18	0 of 0
2	Kurt Holobaugh	48 of 79	60%	34 of 64	10 of 11	4 of 4	42 of 71	6 of 8	0 of 0
2	Kaynan Kruschewsky	36 of 65	55%	28 of 53	8 of 12	0 of 0	25 of 54	11 of 11	0 of 0
3	Kurt Holobaugh	18 of 27	66%	9 of 18	8 of 8	1 of 1	13 of 20	5 of 7	0 of 0
3	Kaynan Kruschewsky	22 of 34	64%	18 of 28	4 of 6	0 of 0	12 of 21	2 of 4	8 of 9

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh with very low confidence, citing his durability and composure. He notes that Kruschewsky is the better striker and more dangerous, but Holobaugh's wrestling could be key if he uses it. He explicitly says he will not bet on this fight unless a ridiculous prop appears.

will not bet unless ridiculous prop appears

"I'm going to pick Kurt here but with basically no confidence at all and certainly no money"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Kaynan Kruschewsky

Cody picks Kruschewsky, citing his youth (26 vs 38), better cardio, and ability to grapple. He criticizes Holobaugh for training at his own gym with no elite partners and expects him to fade. He notes both are BJJ black belts but thinks Kruschewsky's wrestling and durability give him the edge, though he admits it's a close fight.

"The pick is Keenan but yeah again it's just very much and a card of all these fights are like that."

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Kaynan Kruschewsky

Daniel Vreeland picks Kaynan Kruschewsky, citing his youth, length, and higher pace. He notes Holobaugh's declining takedown defense and lack of urgency to get back up, as seen in recent fights. Vreeland believes Kruschewsky is catching Holobaugh at the right time and will win by decision or possibly a finish.

"I just see kensky being the younger hungrier fresher Stronger Just a Little More youthful vigor and will to win and for that reason I'm going go keski here to get his first UFC win"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

Holobaugh is a +115 underdog. He is aggressive, powerful, and has solid durability. Kruschewsky is coming off a bad knockout loss and his chin is a question mark. Holobaugh can force a pocket exchange and land a big shot to finish. The fight is volatile, but Holobaugh's pressure and power give him the edge.

"I lean halah here I think that will see him uh Force keski into a pocket exchange and that's going to allow Halal to land a big shot and put him out cold at plus 115"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Kaynan Kruschewsky

Paul agrees with Cody, siding with Kruschewsky on volume and power. He thinks the fight will come down to striking and that Kruschewsky has the edge there. He doesn't elaborate much but concurs with the pick.

"I'm with you."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Kaynan Kruschewsky

The MMA Guru picks Kaynan Kruschewsky over Kurt Holobaugh, citing Holobaugh's age and recent loss to Trey Ogden. He notes Kruschewsky is a young up-and-comer with a 15-2 record, though not that young. He mentions Kruschewsky's size and reach advantage, and believes this is Kruschewsky's time more than Holobaugh's.

"I'm going to go with KUSI over Kurt hollar I can't trust Kurt hollar to win a fight he just seems too old"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Trey Ogden

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Trey Ogden	0	29 of 68	42%	129 of 188	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:10
Kurt Holobaugh	0	35 of 66	53%	225 of 320	3 of 4	75%	0	0	11:09

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Trey Ogden	5 of 14	35%	43 of 58	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Kurt Holobaugh	1 of 11	9%	68 of 94	1 of 1	100%	4:12
2	Trey Ogden	20 of 42	47%	39 of 67	0 of 0	---	0:10
2	Kurt Holobaugh	26 of 41	63%	75 of 119	1 of 2	50%	2:52
3	Trey Ogden	4 of 12	33%	47 of 63	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Kurt Holobaugh	8 of 14	57%	82 of 107	1 of 1	100%	4:05

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Trey Ogden	29 of 68	42%	9 of 43	9 of 12	11 of 13	24 of 63	3 of 3	2 of 2
Kurt Holobaugh	35 of 66	53%	22 of 52	4 of 4	9 of 10	28 of 59	2 of 2	5 of 5

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Trey Ogden	5 of 14	35%	1 of 10	2 of 2	2 of 2	4 of 13	0 of 0	1 of 1
1	Kurt Holobaugh	1 of 11	9%	1 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Trey Ogden	20 of 42	47%	5 of 25	7 of 8	8 of 9	16 of 38	3 of 3	1 of 1
2	Kurt Holobaugh	26 of 41	63%	15 of 29	4 of 4	7 of 8	19 of 34	2 of 2	5 of 5
3	Trey Ogden	4 of 12	33%	3 of 8	0 of 2	1 of 2	4 of 12	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Kurt Holobaugh	8 of 14	57%	6 of 12	0 of 0	2 of 2	8 of 14	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Kurt Holobaugh vs. Trey Ogden
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ogden (-155), Holobaugh (+130)

Round 1
Two submission specialists come together in the preliminary headliner, and both men are in desperate need of a win given their track records with the promotion thus far. Holobaugh (20-7, 1 NC; 1-4 UFC) is trying to make his third stint in the UFC the best, while Ogden (16-6, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) is still fuming about a premature stoppage of Nikolas Motta from November that cost him a win bonus. Barring something crazy, a win bonus will be doled out, and referee Mark Smith may be the first to know who that is. The lightweights touch gloves, and Holobaugh puts a few quick combinations together as Ogden sits down on a leg kick and swatting left hand. Ogden doubles up on a jab and eats a body shot, and Holobaugh crowds him and kicks him hard on the lead leg. Ogden feints a takedown, drawing a short flurry of strikes that allows him to shoot and take Holobaugh down to the mat. Ogden gets busy with flailing punches, and Holobaugh is just as busy if not more as he attacks with short strikes and elbows. Ogden lowers himself down in pursuit of an arm-triangle choke, and he gets smacked a few times in the back of the head. Ogden, in half guard, again presses his shoulder down for the arm-triangle, and he bops Holobaugh in the side of the head with short but irritating hammerfists. Holobaugh hooks his legs around Ogden’s to keep him from passing or advancing position, so Ogden sits there comfortably scoring short punches and shoulder strikes. Ogden postures up to land harder blows, and he drives his shoulder in Holobaugh’s chin once more to conclude the frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 2
Holobaugh practically sprints out of his corner to engage, and he eats a leg kick on the way in. Holobaugh tries to come out swinging again, and Ogden kicks his other leg out. Ogden chews up both legs with kicks, and he fakes his way forward and kiais to draw out a reaction. Ogden smacks him in the face with a question mark kick, and he slides away as Holobaugh chases for a counter. Holobaugh lands a body kick, and they trade one-twos. Ogden digs a kick to the ribcage, and he has a leg kick checked when he backs up against the cage. Ogden shoots for a takedown, and Holobaugh stuffs him and rings his bell with two fierce right hands. Ogden jabs once to make him retreat, and he points at Holobaugh after absorbing a low kick. Ogden tries to tie him up when Holobaugh crowds him, and he gets off a few short knees and trips Holobaugh up to dump him on the ground. Ogden threatens with an arm-triangle choke, pressing his shoulder down on the windpipe until smashing them down on Holobaugh’s face. Holobaugh turns to his side in an effort to escape, and Ogden pounds away at him with his free right hand. Ogden’s fist continues to meet face again and again, and Holobaugh can only grab Ogden’s wrist or block his face to defend from the methodical bludgeoning. Ogden fearlessly clubs away, picking up the pace as he looks for a stoppage. Holobaugh recovers well enough to stave off Smith’s itchy trigger finger, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 3
The gloves are touched, and Holobaugh aggressively pursues his man around the cage only to eat a number of jabs and low kicks while trying to close the distance. Ogden stays elusive and does not let Holobaugh crowd him, but he stands still and gets beaned with two right hands. As he shakes it off, he shoots in for a perfect takedown that deposits the TUF winner on his back. Holobaugh closes guard as Ogden works him from on top, and the man now known as “Shamurai” methodically climbs into half guard while continuously beating on his opponent. Ogden grinds out time as he clubs Holobaugh with hammerfists and punches, not allowing Holobaugh to breathe or get anything off of merit on his own side. With a minute to go, Ogden jumps into full mount, and he decides against trying anything reckless. The control on top carries out until the final bell, and Holobaugh gets up and walks off irritated about the fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)

The Official Result
Trey Ogden def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Trey Ogden

Angelo is confident in Trey Ogden, having placed a half-unit bet on him at -146. He believes Ogden can hang in the striking, get takedowns, and work from top position. He notes that Ogden was winning the striking exchanges in his last fight before the early stoppage, and his grappling should be enough to overcome Holobaugh's BJJ.

half unit bet at -146

"I like Trey Ogden to win this fight I'm pretty confident in Trey Ogden I have a half of a unit on Trey Ogden at minus 146"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

Big Brady picks Kurt Holobaugh, citing his dangerous submissions and Trey Ogden's history of being submitted (three times, twice by guillotine). He notes Holobaugh is a wild man who comes forward, while Ogden is more technical but has been submitted before. He predicts Holobaugh will submit Ogden in the second round.

second round submission

"I'm going to take Hollow ball here to win this fight I think he's gonna I'll say gets a sub I'll say he submits Trey Ogden at some point I just think Hala so dangerous on the mat"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

Cody picks Holobaugh, citing his forward pressure, volume, and submission threat. He notes that Ogden's wrestling may not hold Holobaugh down, and Holobaugh's scrambling and aggression could sway judges. Cody sees Holobaugh as the dog with value.

"Kurt Hala and the pick is going to be Kurt HBA."

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Kurt Holobaugh, agreeing with the co-host that this is a pick'em fight. He notes Ogden's recent win was against a low-level opponent and that Holobaugh has more power and output. He prefers the underdog in a close fight, citing judging uncertainty.

"I'm gonna also go with Halo there"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Trey Ogden

Ogden showed a complete performance in his last fight (no contest) with seamless striking and grappling. He should dictate the pace from the outside with straight shots and then mix in takedowns. Holobaugh is a BJJ black belt but has poor takedown defense and tends to invite grappling. Ogden's constant movement and jab should cause issues, leading to a decision win.

Ogden by decision

"I do like Ogden here I think he can dictate and control the pace of this fight with relative ease... I'm going to go with Ogden here I think Ogden wins by decision."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

Paul sides with Cody, noting Holobaugh's experience and dangerous submission game. He thinks Ogden's game plan of taking down Holobaugh is risky due to Holobaugh's ability to scramble and threaten submissions. Paul picks the veteran.

"I'll side with you with the veteran and Kurt halah."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

The MMA Guru picks Kurt Holobaugh over Trey Ogden, praising Holobaugh's boxing and ground game. He thinks Holobaugh will drop Ogden and then submit him via guillotine choke after Ogden shoots for a takedown. He notes Holobaugh's experience and full training camp.

submission win, round one or two

"I'm going Kurt hollar... drops Trey Ogden... gets Guillotine choked out by Kurt hollar in round one or two"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Austin Hubbard

Submission (triangle choke) R2 2:39 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Kurt Holobaugh	0	61 of 119	51%	85 of 144	0 of 0	---	2	0	1:08
Austin Hubbard	0	44 of 107	41%	61 of 125	2 of 6	33%	0	0	2:23

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Kurt Holobaugh	37 of 78	47%	58 of 100	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
1	Austin Hubbard	31 of 74	41%	48 of 92	2 of 4	50%	0	2:06
2	Kurt Holobaugh	24 of 41	58%	27 of 44	0 of 0	---	2	1:08
2	Austin Hubbard	13 of 33	39%	13 of 33	0 of 2	0%	0	0:17

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Kurt Holobaugh	61 of 119	51%	46 of 101	10 of 12	5 of 6	50 of 106	9 of 10	2 of 3
Austin Hubbard	44 of 107	41%	25 of 86	17 of 19	2 of 2	31 of 87	9 of 12	4 of 8

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Kurt Holobaugh	37 of 78	47%	26 of 64	6 of 8	5 of 6	30 of 71	7 of 7	0 of 0
1	Austin Hubbard	31 of 74	41%	16 of 58	14 of 15	1 of 1	20 of 57	7 of 9	4 of 8
2	Kurt Holobaugh	24 of 41	58%	20 of 37	4 of 4	0 of 0	20 of 35	2 of 3	2 of 3
2	Austin Hubbard	13 of 33	39%	9 of 28	3 of 4	1 of 1	11 of 30	2 of 3	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

Angelo likes Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog despite his 0-6 UFC record, noting that his losses were to top competition like Thiago Moises, Shane Burgos, and Humberto Bandenay. He believes Holobaugh's striking combinations and power will be too much for Austin Hubbard, though he acknowledges Hubbard's chin and takedown ability as concerns. He expects Holobaugh to win and become the Ultimate Fighter champion.

"I do like Kurt as the underdog here... I do think Kurt's striking combinations and power are going to be too much for Austin."

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

Cody likes Holobaugh's momentum from The Ultimate Fighter, his durability, and power. He thinks Hubbard is a volume pressure fighter but Holobaugh has a chip on his shoulder and nothing to lose. He picks Holobaugh as an underdog to win a decision or late finish.

"I will take the underdog shot here on Kurt Hall about to get the job done"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Austin Hubbard

Daniel Levi picks Austin Hubbard to do his typical thing, turning the fight into a sparring match and not taking risks. He notes that Hubbard is hard to finish and has survived bad spots against high-level grapplers. However, Levi is not laying the price and calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He prefers the over and Holobaugh decision props.

Goes the distance minus 130; Holobaugh decision plus 400

"Pure pick I'll go Hubbard to do his typical thing but I'm not laying this price on him"

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)

Kurt Holobaugh

Lucrative James sees value on Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog, believing the fight should be a pick'em. He notes Holobaugh has more finishing threat and has faced better competition, while Austin Hubbard relies on toughness and volume but lacks major skills. However, he acknowledges Holobaugh's age (36) and potential to be out-volumed.

"I think there's value on the dog again Kurt holliber"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Austin Hubbard

Hubbard has added wrinkles to his game, mixing striking with takedowns. He should be competitive on the feet and then use his wrestling to grind out Holobaugh, who struggles with defensive grappling. Hubbard's kicks and range control will set up takedowns. The line has moved to a reasonable -160/-170 range, making him a good play.

"I'm more than happy to take a shot on him at that point as I believe he grinds this fight out has the better grappling here offensively speaking and that should allow him to pick up a decision Victory"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Austin Hubbard

The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard over Kurt Holobaugh. He acknowledges Holobaugh's pocket boxing skills but believes Hubbard's straight punches, front kicks, and low kicks will keep him from standing in the pocket. Hubbard also has offensive grappling and excellent takedown defense, allowing him to dictate where the fight takes place. The Guru sees Hubbard's versatility as too much for Holobaugh.

"I'm gonna go with Austin Hubbard over Kurt hollabaugh"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Thiago Moises

Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · May 11, 2019

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Thiago Moises	0	66 of 102	64%	115 of 160	4 of 6	66%	1	0	7:52
Kurt Holobaugh	0	39 of 115	33%	108 of 189	2 of 6	33%	0	0	3:14

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Thiago Moises	20 of 33	60%	28 of 44	1 of 1	100%	0	2:50
1	Kurt Holobaugh	11 of 37	29%	42 of 71	0 of 1	0%	0	1:07
2	Thiago Moises	18 of 32	56%	19 of 34	1 of 2	50%	0	2:02
2	Kurt Holobaugh	24 of 66	36%	46 of 90	0 of 1	0%	0	1:18
3	Thiago Moises	28 of 37	75%	68 of 82	2 of 3	66%	1	3:00
3	Kurt Holobaugh	4 of 12	33%	20 of 28	2 of 4	50%	0	0:49

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Thiago Moises	66 of 102	64%	59 of 92	2 of 4	5 of 6	28 of 53	8 of 11	30 of 38
Kurt Holobaugh	39 of 115	33%	16 of 82	21 of 30	2 of 3	24 of 93	14 of 21	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Thiago Moises	20 of 33	60%	17 of 29	0 of 1	3 of 3	10 of 18	2 of 3	8 of 12
1	Kurt Holobaugh	11 of 37	29%	7 of 32	3 of 3	1 of 2	11 of 37	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Thiago Moises	18 of 32	56%	17 of 29	0 of 1	1 of 2	14 of 26	3 of 5	1 of 1
2	Kurt Holobaugh	24 of 66	36%	6 of 39	17 of 26	1 of 1	11 of 46	13 of 20	0 of 0
3	Thiago Moises	28 of 37	75%	25 of 34	2 of 2	1 of 1	4 of 9	3 of 3	21 of 25
3	Kurt Holobaugh	4 of 12	33%	3 of 11	1 of 1	0 of 0	2 of 10	1 of 1	1 of 1

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Kurt Holobaugh vs. Thiago Moises

Round 1
Lightweights Holobaugh (17-6, 1 N/C) and Moises (11-3) face off in a matchup of DWTNCS alums in need of a win. Referee Marc Goddard makes his first appearance of the evening. Holobaugh grabs a single-leg in the first 15 seconds, using it to run Moises to the fence. The Brazilian defends well, however, and Holobaugh gives it up. They return to circling. Moments later, Holobaugh goes for a single, once again on the right leg, and Moises once again defends. They disengage, and Moises surprises Holobaugh by dropping for a single-leg takedown of his own, running Holobaugh to the canvas. Holobaugh grabs a front headlock on the way down, but Moises moves to the opposite side and Holobaugh wisely lets go. Moises lands in full guard, then passes to half-guard. Holobaugh regains full guard as the “Uh! Vai morrer!” chants start up. Holobaugh goes high with his legs, and Moises postures up. The round ends with Moises still in Holobaugh’s full guard.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Moises

Round 2
Holobaugh lands a right low kick immediately. Moises tags him with a right hook, then throws a front kick right up the middle that touches Holobaugh’s chin. Just under a minute into the round, Moises times Holobaugh for a double-leg, getting in on his hips and driving him to the canvas easily. He scoots Holobaugh over to the fence, working in the Louisianan’s guard. Holobaugh shrimps and attempts to scramble to his feet, and manages to escape. Halfway through the round, Holobaugh clinches and hold Moises against the fence. Holobaugh lands a left hook to the head and a right to the body that get Moises’ attention. With a minute left, Moises tries to drop for a takedown, Holobaugh defends, but Moises comes across the top with a hard elbow to the temple. Right before the 10-second clapper, Holobaugh lands a three-piece combo with Moises backed up against the fence. Moises responds with a pair of level elbow strikes.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Moises

Round 3
Moises steps inside and hits Holobaugh with a one-two, then another combo. He drops and drives Holobaugh to the ground again. He works from half-guard as Holobaugh tries to hip escape. Moises sticks to him, staying on top and giving Holobaugh nowhere to go. Against the fence, Holobaugh scrambles out but gives up his back. Moises gets his arm under the chin, but without hooks he gives the choke up. Holobaugh reverses briefly, but Moises scrambles and ends up on top again. With under 90 seconds left, it’s been Moises all over Holobaugh all round. In the final half-minute, he flurries from top position, landing some hard shots but not doing enough to get Goddard to step in. This one will go to the judges.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Moises (30-27 Moises)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises (30-27 Moises)
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Moises (30-27 Moises)

The Official Result
Thiago Moises def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)

LOSS vs Shane Burgos

Submission (armbar) R1 2:11 · UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Nov 03, 2018

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Shane Burgos	0	17 of 24	70%	17 of 24	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:00
Kurt Holobaugh	1	21 of 51	41%	26 of 57	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:13

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Shane Burgos	0	17 of 24	70%	17 of 24	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:00
1	Kurt Holobaugh	1	21 of 51	41%	26 of 57	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:13

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Shane Burgos	17 of 24	70%	13 of 19	2 of 3	2 of 2	17 of 24	0 of 0	0 of 0
Kurt Holobaugh	21 of 51	41%	14 of 40	1 of 2	6 of 9	19 of 48	1 of 2	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Shane Burgos	17 of 24	70%	13 of 19	2 of 3	2 of 2	17 of 24	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Kurt Holobaugh	21 of 51	41%	14 of 40	1 of 2	6 of 9	19 of 48	1 of 2	1 of 1

LOSS vs Raoni Barcelos

TKO (punches) R3 1:29 · UFC Fight Night: dos Santos vs. Ivanov · Jul 14, 2018

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Raoni Barcelos	0	102 of 226	45%	130 of 256	1 of 3	33%	0	0	0:39
Kurt Holobaugh	1	82 of 146	56%	95 of 160	3 of 4	75%	0	0	2:34

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Raoni Barcelos	0	49 of 107	45%	53 of 111	0 of 1	0%	0:01
1	Kurt Holobaugh	0	34 of 68	50%	38 of 72	1 of 2	50%	0:49
2	Raoni Barcelos	0	37 of 76	48%	61 of 102	1 of 2	50%	0:38
2	Kurt Holobaugh	0	30 of 48	62%	39 of 58	2 of 2	100%	1:44
3	Raoni Barcelos	0	16 of 43	37%	16 of 43	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Kurt Holobaugh	1	18 of 30	60%	18 of 30	0 of 0	---	0:01

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Raoni Barcelos	102 of 226	45%	88 of 206	8 of 12	6 of 8	88 of 208	6 of 8	8 of 10
Kurt Holobaugh	82 of 146	56%	76 of 138	5 of 7	1 of 1	67 of 129	8 of 9	7 of 8

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Raoni Barcelos	49 of 107	45%	38 of 93	6 of 8	5 of 6	45 of 101	2 of 3	2 of 3
1	Kurt Holobaugh	34 of 68	50%	32 of 65	1 of 2	1 of 1	28 of 62	6 of 6	0 of 0
2	Raoni Barcelos	37 of 76	48%	34 of 71	2 of 3	1 of 2	27 of 64	4 of 5	6 of 7
2	Kurt Holobaugh	30 of 48	62%	26 of 43	4 of 5	0 of 0	21 of 37	2 of 3	7 of 8
3	Raoni Barcelos	16 of 43	37%	16 of 42	0 of 1	0 of 0	16 of 43	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Kurt Holobaugh	18 of 30	60%	18 of 30	0 of 0	0 of 0	18 of 30	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raoni Barcelos vs. Kurt Holobaugh

Round 1
Holobaugh lands an early leg kick, but it's Barcelos exploding inside to pop the American with a speedy right hand. Holobaugh grabs Barcelos in the Thai clinch to deliver a knee, then goes back to leg-kicking as the featherweights circle in the second minute. Barcelos steps inside and thumps Holobaugh with an uppercut before dipping out of range. Barcelos looks to be the speedier fighter but Holobaugh is using good head movement to slip his punches and counter effectively. Barcelos fakes a shot and comes back up to sting Holobaugh with another uppercut. Halfway through the middle of a busy round, it's Holobaugh keeping up the busier pace, while Barcelos lands sporadic but heavy punches. Barcelos completes a quick takedown as they hit the final 60 seconds; Holobaugh is back up quickly but gets blasted by a Barcelos right hand on his way out. Barcelos sprawls on a shot and puts Holobaugh in deep trouble with a tight guillotine, but the American is able to hold out for the final 10 seconds.

Sherdog Scores
Mike Fridley scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Barcelos

Round 2
Barcelos opens the second round with a looping left hook, then catches an incoming Holobaugh with a straight counter. Holobaugh jabs his way inside, then lands a right to the body. The featherweights are standing toe-to-toe in the middle and throwing heavy shots, with both men landing and neither man budging. Barcelos opts to switch things up with a takedown, but the longer Holobaugh is threatening with a triangle as soon as they hit the mat. Barcelos stands to adjust and then comes back down in Holobaugh's half guard. Holobaugh works his way up against the wall, and they're back on their feet with half the round remaining. Barcelos stings Holobaugh with a punch between the eyes, then hits a lovely trip takedown in the center of the cage. Barcelos stands with 60 seconds left, allowing Holobaugh to get back on his feet. Barcelos tries a spinning kick and gets caught on the turn-around, with Holobaugh jumping on his back to sink in a hook. Barcelos' left side is flush to the fence, blocking Holobaugh's second hook, and keeping Barcelos out of trouble until the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Mike Fridley scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Barcelos

Round 3
Barcelos comes over the top with a good right hand, gets jabbed backward by Holobaugh, then swings back with a heavy combination when the Louisianan gets caught sleeping. Holobaugh continues to jab his way forward laziily, and Barcelos makes him pay with a blistering left hand. A right hook stings the backpedaling Holobaugh, then another right connects before
an uppercut finally knocks Holobaugh senseless.
Holobaugh crashes to the canvas as referee Herb Dean rushes in to stop the fight, and Barcelos walks off with a highlight-reel knockout in his UFC debut.

The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Kurt Holobaugh via KO (Punches) R3 1:29

View all 9 fights

Raoni Barcelos

Kurt Holobaugh

Career Averages - Raoni Barcelos

Career Averages - Kurt Holobaugh

Raoni Barcelos - Fight History

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Kurt Holobaugh - Fight History

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