Career Averages - Jeremy Stephens
Career Averages - Josh Emmett
Jeremy Stephens - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 0 | 57 of 87 | 65% | 64 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 0 | 57 of 87 | 65% | 64 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 57 of 87 | 65% | 44 of 69 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 35 of 46 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 57 of 87 | 65% | 44 of 69 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 35 of 46 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Green (-340), Stephens (+270)
Round 1
They may have nothing in common, but Green (34-17-1, 1 NC; 15-12-1, 1 NC UFC) and Stephens (29-22, 1 NC; 15-19, 1 NC UFC) are both grizzled, battle-tested veterans—not the type who would be saving Private Ryan, mind you, but gladiators who have faced a veritable who’s who in the sport over the years. Both men celebrate exactly 15 wins inside of the Octagon, and they would very much like one more. Referee Gary Copeland will supervise the proceedings of this catchweight affair, one outside of standard weight classes because Stephens biffed weight by four pounds. He gives up 30% of his purse to Green but no glove touch.
Green’s hands are down the moment the fight begins, and he already is chattering at Stephens trying to encourage him to come in at him. Green points at Stephens after Stephens whiffs. He sneaks in a right hand, and he circles to the side towards Stephens’ power side. Green takes a punch off the forehead and pauses, but it does not take long for him to get going again. Stephens misses by a mile with a haymaker, and Green is comfortable hanging out in boxing range. Stephens kicks his for in the front leg, and Green kicks him in the side and gets clinched. Stephens drills Green with a right hand on the break, and Green signals that it did not land flush. Green stabs a kick to the liver, and he pump-fakes his way in to draw reactions. Green staggers Stephens with a left hand, and he knows it and rifles off three more fists in a hurry. Green winds up with a body kick, but it smashes into Stephens’ groin. Stephens grimaces and Copeland calls time. Stephens looks to work out the pain, and Green immediately goes to apologize. Copeland issues a hard warning to Green, and Stephens is good to go after about 80 seconds. Green again apologizes, and Stephens is good with it as they resume. Stephens stalks Green down, and Green’s hands remain down while he is chirping at him. Green lands a right hand and a kick to the body, and he points at Stephens’ stomach and leaps at him to hit a quick double and put Stephens on his back.
Green starts bombing on Stephens when on top, unleashing a long stream of punches and elbows while sitting on his leg in a quasi-half guard. Green keeps thumping up Stephens with his free left hand, and Stephens doubles up his wrist control on Green’s left arm for a straight armlock or kimura. He twists it to become a kimura to go for a sweep, and Green fights it off and steps into mount to batter Stephens with ground-and-pound.
Green transitions into a rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye when Stephens turns, and he rolls to the back to lock it down. Green only has one hook in as he wrenches on the submission, but it is so complete that he does not need the other. Stephens briefly considers going out on his shield but that would be silly. Stephens gives up
, and it is not so much a train that ran him over as it is the Polar Express, with this one-sided shellacking ending with a mean choke. Falling short again, Stephens removes his gloves and may have left him in the center of the Octagon to say farewell to the sport. It is hard to tell with the promotion wholly focused on the triumphant Green.
The Official Result
King Green def. Jeremy Stephens R1 4:20 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks King Green, noting he is the better overall fighter and has shown wrestling in his last fight. He acknowledges concerns about the judges not liking his style and that Jeremy Stephens is always dangerous, but believes Green wins the majority of the time.
Angelo picks King Green, stating he is the better striker and can shoot takedowns if needed. He notes Green's volume and defense, and that Stephens is tough but can be taken down. He is surprised by the 3-to-1 odds and thinks they are too wide for a 39-year-old. He says he will probably leave the bet alone.
Big Brady picks King Green, though he admits he can't lay the -325 odds. He notes Green has looked good recently, while Stephens hasn't won in years and looks done. Brady expects Green to outpoint Stephens, mixing in wrestling if needed, and win a decision. He acknowledges Stephens could knock Green out, but considers that a hot take.
Cody picks Green, citing his superior skills and Stephens' decline. He notes Green's volume and movement, and thinks Stephens is past his prime and not a threat. Cody expects Green to win by decision or submission, but is wary of the minus 400 price.
Connor picks Green, agreeing with Zane. He notes Green is slicker on the feet with better footwork, though his reaction times have slowed. Connor points out that Stephens' recent KO losses are to real sluggers, and Green is not that. He expects Green to make Stephens chase and overthrow, and use takedowns to slow him down.
Daniel picks Green, citing his slick striking, speed, and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Stephens' knockout power but believes Green is too slick and will avoid getting caught. Daniel expects Green to win via output or submission.
The host passes on this fight. He favors Green but considers the odds too wide (1.30). He notes Green's inconsistency and poor fight IQ, and Stephens' power. He mentions the +3.5 fight spread on Stephens as interesting but decides to keep money safe.
Predicted method: Decision. Green is the younger, more active fighter with superior striking volume (6.38 SLpM) and accuracy (53%) compared to Stephens, who is 38 and has lost four straight. Stephens has power but is hittable (3.14 SApM) and has poor takedown defense (62%). Green's 72% takedown defense should keep the fight standing, where he can outwork Stephens with combinations and movement. Stephens' only path is an early KO, but Green's durability and pace should carry him to a clear decision or late stoppage.
Jacob is confident in King Green, citing that Jeremy Stephens is 1-8 in his last nine fights and hasn't had a knockout since 2018. He believes Green's wrestling and smarter fighting style will be too much, and that Stephens looked clueless on the ground against Mason Jones.
Lucrative James confidently picks King Green because he sees Jeremy Stephens as a knockout-or-bust fighter who is 1-8 in his last nine MMA fights. He believes Green's boxing and volume will overwhelm Stephens, who lacks the cardio and durability to win a decision. He predicts Green wins by decision, noting Stephens' toughness but inability to keep up with Green's pace.
The host picks Green, citing his striking clinic and ability to outbox Stephens. He notes that Stephens lost a boxing match to Chris Avila, which indicates Green should dominate on the feet. He expects Green to win by decision, though he acknowledges Stephens' power and chin. He may look at the decision prop.
Paul picks Green, citing his technical striking and Stephens' lack of recent success. He thinks Green's volume and movement will overwhelm Stephens, who is fighting for a payday. Paul expects Green to win by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Bobby Green, expecting him to pick apart Jeremy Stephens with boxing. He notes Green's recent wins over Daniel Zellhuber and close fight with Fiziev. He thinks Stephens is past his prime and Green will mix in takedowns. He predicts a decision win, though he initially says TKO then corrects to decision.
Zane picks Green confidently, citing his speed, length, and footwork advantage over the older Stephens. He notes Stephens has lost his kicking and wrestling, and is no longer a knockout artist. Zane believes Green can use reactive takedowns like against Zell Hoover to neutralize Stephens. He sees it as a slow-down version of Green's win over Nasrud Hockbrost.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 42 of 108 | 38% | 54 of 126 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Mason Jones | 0 | 81 of 231 | 35% | 104 of 261 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 6:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 21 of 47 | 44% | 24 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mason Jones | 0 | 39 of 103 | 37% | 41 of 108 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 19 of 55 | 34% | 24 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Mason Jones | 0 | 37 of 115 | 32% | 43 of 123 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 | |
| 3 | Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mason Jones | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 20 of 30 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Stephens | 42 of 108 | 38% | 19 of 79 | 7 of 11 | 16 of 18 | 41 of 105 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Mason Jones | 81 of 231 | 35% | 50 of 188 | 19 of 28 | 12 of 15 | 74 of 220 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremy Stephens | 21 of 47 | 44% | 6 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 12 of 13 | 20 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mason Jones | 39 of 103 | 37% | 22 of 80 | 9 of 13 | 8 of 10 | 36 of 100 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jeremy Stephens | 19 of 55 | 34% | 12 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mason Jones | 37 of 115 | 32% | 25 of 98 | 9 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 35 of 112 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jeremy Stephens | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mason Jones | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jones (-600), Stephens (+440)
Round 1
Stephens enters to massive pop from his hometown crowd, and hopes to give them something to keep cheering about against fellow returnee Jones. Mike Beltran draws his first referee assignment of the evening, and the lightweights go to work in matchin orthodox stances. Stephens is throwing hooks with mean intentions right away, but he scores first with a hard leg kick. Jones is composed, however, moving laterally and tagging “Lil Heathen” with a variety of fast kicks from both sides. Jones goes upstairs and a head kick glances off Stephens’ guard. Jones connects with a body kick, then a spinning back kick to the head. None of them have landed with a ton of impact, but the speed and accuracy are there. Stephens catches Jones with a hard right hand, which leaves a visible swelling under the Welshman’s eye. They clinch, and Stephens fires off a couple of murderous-looking uppercuts that have Jones backing away hastily. Jones steps back in and lands an uppercut of his own. Stephens wades forward, and his punches look to have slowed just a bit. Jones takes Stephens’ back standing, hoists him with a rear waistlock and deposits him on the canvas. Stephens scrambles back up, but Jones elevates him for an easy mat return. Jones stays on Stephens’ back this time, and with under 30 seconds to go he tries a rear-naked choke. It’s wrapped up but not under the chin, and time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jones
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jones
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jones
Round 2
Jones and Stephens meet in the center of the cage and flurry with punches. Stephens lands a good one and the crowd erupts. Jones fires back and they clinch. Stephens lands a nice uppercut in close. Jones tags Stephens with a glancing head kick and just slips a right hook coming back his way. Stephens throws another right, and Jones has just barely escaped disaster from that punch several times already in this fight. Jones lands a flying knee, followed by a level elbow, and Stephens is bleeding from the hairline. Stephens throws a salvo of punches, several of which connect, and Jones loses his mouthguard. Jones is bleeding from the face as well. The crowd is deafening as the two men swing away in phone-booth range. Jones lands a spinning back kick to the head, and Stephens steps in to land a clean counter punch. Stephens throws a straight to the body that hurts Jones and has him backing off. Stephens surges forward and takes Jones’ back standing. Jones spins to face his opponent and hauls Stephens to his knees, lands briefly in mount, then jumps on his back as he turns away. Short time left in the round once again, and once again the horn sounds with Jones in back control.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jones
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jones
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jones
Round 3
The Des Moines crowd roars as Stephens and Jones come out for the final frame, and they pop further when Stephens lands a nice right hand in the opening exchange. Jones staves off further punishment—and quiets the arena—by changing levels for an easy takedown against the cage. Jones lands in Stephens’ guard, but Stephens gets back to his feet. Jones drags Stephens back down, spins through north-south, and grabs Stephens’ left arm with a two-on-one, looking to isolate the limb for an armbar. Stephens locks his hands and defends, with Jones kneeling over his head and trying to wrench the arm out. Jones gives up on the armbar and moves to Stephens’ back. Stephens explodes to his feet and Jones drags him back down, to scattered boos from the crowd. Jones laces the legs of the seated Iowan at the base of the fence, and is close to landing in full mount. Stephens gets back to this feet yet again, and Jones yet again responds by "dragon" his man back to the ground. Under a minute left to go and Jones gets back control, then takes mount as Stephens spins around. The final horn sounds with Jones in full mount near the cage and the Des Moines crowd sounding off in discontent.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jones (30-27 Jones)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jones (30-27 Jones)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jones (30-27 Jones)
The Official Result
Mason Jones def. Jeremy Stephens via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo expects Mason Jones to pick apart Jeremy Stephens with superior boxing and takedowns. He notes that Stephens is exciting but slower and will likely be taken down multiple times. He does not predict a finish but believes Jones will win a clear decision.
Big Brady is very confident in Mason Jones, calling it a mismatch. He highlights Jones's well-rounded skills: BJJ black belt, great striking, volume, power, and toughness. Stephens hasn't fought in MMA since 2022, is 38, and looked bad recently. Brady expects Jones to take Stephens down and finish him quickly, predicting a first-round submission. He notes that if Jones stands and bangs, it gives Stephens a puncher's chance, but still favors Jones.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Jones's aggression and clinch wrestling will be too much for Stephens. He compares Stephens's decline to his loss to Clay Collard, where aggression wore him down. Connor believes Jones can take Stephens down and keep him there, as Stephens's ground instincts are poor. He calls it a fight that feels like PFL filler but expects Jones to win.
Jones is younger and closer to his prime. He will mix up his game to wear down the 39-year-old Stephens and eventually secure a dominant position for a ground-and-pound TKO or submission.
The MMA Guru picks Mason Jones, citing his well-roundedness, wrestling, and granite chin. He believes Jeremy Stephens is too old and has been focusing on BKFC and boxing, so his grappling will be rusty. He predicts Jones will win by TKO on the ground, possibly after using his taekwondo to back Stephens up. He thinks Jones should be a 3-to-1 favorite, not -575.
Zane picks Jones, emphasizing that Stephens has been a lost cause in MMA for years, with declining foot speed and takedown defense. He notes that Jones is an aggressive brawler who pressures well and has never been knocked out. Zane points out that Stephens hasn't knocked anyone out in MMA since 2018 and is susceptible to pressure and wrestling. He believes Jones will swarm Stephens and wear him down.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The Octagon experience between Stephens (28-18, 1 NC; 15-17, 1 NC UFC) and Gamrot (18-1, 1 NC; 1-1 UFC) is a chasm of 31 bouts, although Gamrot did serve as a two-division KSW champion prior to joining the UFC in 2020. The lightweights will toe the line before referee Mike Beltran, who knows a firefight may erupt before his very eyes. The intensity is palpable as there is no touch of gloves, and instead the two men race to the center of the cage to establish dominance. Gamrot shoots in low for a leg to take Stephens down, and after the Iowan hops around, Gamrot quickly puts him on his back. Stephens rolls to his side, and Gamrot threatens with a kimura but he winds up in kimura danger of his own.
Gamrot spins around and takes an inverted triangle position, and he resecures the two-on-one wrist control to wrench the kimura. “Gamer” torques the arm behind Stephens’ back with everything he has, and Stephens has no choice to tap out lest his shoulder get ripped to shreds.
What an impressive performance for the Polish fighter, who becomes the first man to tap out “Lil Heathen” since Joe Lauzon in 2009 at UFC Fight Night 17.
The Official Result
Mateusz Gamrot def. Jeremy Stephens R1 1:05 via Submission (Kimura)
Cody is high on Mateusz Gamrot, praising his well-rounded skills and experience in KSW. He believes Gamrot's grappling and cardio will wear down Jeremy Stephens, who is moving up to lightweight. Cody expects Gamrot to win by decision, noting that Stephens' power is a threat but Gamrot's relentless pressure and takedowns should prevail.
Paul is not a believer in Mateusz Gamrot, pointing out his inability to maintain top control and his tendency to slow down. He thinks Jeremy Stephens has a puncher's chance but is not confident enough to pick either fighter. He decides to pass on betting this fight, calling it a 'dogger pass' situation.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 57 of 104 | 54% | 57 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 1 | 52 of 113 | 46% | 52 of 113 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 40 of 64 | 62% | 40 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 26 of 66 | 39% | 26 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Calvin Kattar | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 17 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 1 | 26 of 47 | 55% | 26 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Kattar | 57 of 104 | 54% | 24 of 66 | 9 of 12 | 24 of 26 | 56 of 103 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 52 of 113 | 46% | 32 of 92 | 12 of 13 | 8 of 8 | 47 of 103 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calvin Kattar | 40 of 64 | 62% | 16 of 36 | 7 of 10 | 17 of 18 | 40 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 26 of 66 | 39% | 15 of 54 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 26 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Calvin Kattar | 17 of 40 | 42% | 8 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 16 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 26 of 47 | 55% | 17 of 38 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
On any other card, this matchup between Stephens (28-17, 1 NC; 15-16, 1 NC UFC) and Kattar (20-4, 4-2 UFC) would be near the top of the billing, which speaks to the depth of UFC 249. This potential all-action catchweight bout -- Stephens missed weight by 4.5 pounds -- will be officiated by referee Jason Herzog, and the two strikers do not touch gloves and decided to start engaging early. Stephens leads off with a flurry, and he is loading up on shots right out of the gate. A low kick from Stephens goes a little low, and he swings with reckless abandon as Kattar shells up. Stephens is landing frequently with leg kicks to both sides, although Kattar finally fires back at him. Three punches from Kattar surprise Stephens, but “Lil’ Heathen” throws bombs back at him. “The Boston Finisher” strings together a few punches, and Stephens is having none of it as he comes right back at him. A loud leg kick from Stephens lands, and Kattar replies with a similar kick. Both men whiff with big hooks, and Stephens pursues the lead leg of the Boston-based fighter with kicks. They trade leg kicks, but Stephens’ appears to be more impactful as Kattar’s lead leg is beginning to welt up a little. Two powerful punches from Kattar give his opponent pause, but Stephens gathers himself and throws right back. Two over the top are followed by one powerful shot to the body from Kattar, and Stephens races after him with a leg kick that makes Kattar wince. Stephens chains together punches and leg kicks, and Kattar has been forced to change stances already. A big right from Kattar catches Stephens flush, and the Alliance MMA fighter shakes it out and tries blast him with a counter right. Both throw with all they have to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stephens
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stephens
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Stephens
Round 2
Stephens opens up aggressively with a bevy of punches and a leg kick. The kick is forcing Kattar to lift his leg up in anticipation of getting kicked, and also making the Bostonian change stances. Stephens charges in to unload with some shots, but Kattar counters him on the way in and works the lead leg too. Stephens is now forced to switch stances from the damage, and they are swinging with malicious intent. Stephens stings him with a right that splits the guard, and continues the offense with another two thudding leg kicks. Kattar jabs to the body, and puts together a combination that wobbles Stephens. Kattar goes to the body and the head to keep Stephens guessing, and Stephens clinches up to land an elbow on the inside. They separate, and Stephens aims at that lead leg again. Kattar is committing to big right hands now, and they are getting Stephens’ attention.
Kattar winds up with a monster elbow that drills Stephens on the chin, and “Lil’ Heathen” goes down hard. Kattar chases after him to unleash some relentless ground-and-pound, and concludes with a few elbows that slice Stephens’ forehead wide open.
Herzog steps in to save a badly damaged Stephens, who is in a bad way and is positively gushing blood. This is a massive win for Kattar, and he does so with style points.
The Official Result
Calvin Kattar def. Jeremy Stephens R2 2:42 via KO (Elbows and Punches)
Big Brady picks Calvin Kattar, calling him the far better boxer and expecting him to dominate. He believes Kattar's takedown defense will hold up and that he will either put on a three-round clinic or finish Stephens, predicting a third-round knockout. He notes Stephens' recent losses and Kattar's never been knocked out.
Daniel Levi picks Calvin Kattar, stating he is sharper, faster, and more athletic than Stephens. He notes that Kattar likes to stand in the pocket, which gives Stephens a chance, but believes Kattar's boxing is superior. Levi thinks Kattar will pop him with the jab and mix in leg kicks, and that Stephens is too slow to implement a leg kick gameplan.
Matt picks Stephens as an underdog, emphasizing his leg kicks and power. He notes Kattar's vulnerability to leg kicks and believes Stephens can exploit that to set up his hands. He sees value at plus money and expects a decision or late finish, though he acknowledges Kattar's boxing advantage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 96 of 170 | 56% | 136 of 213 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:10 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 50 of 95 | 52% | 99 of 156 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 5:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 39 of 70 | 55% | 39 of 70 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 41 of 73 | 56% | 62 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 35 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 28 of 49 | 57% | 67 of 97 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 96 of 170 | 56% | 65 of 127 | 14 of 23 | 17 of 20 | 54 of 100 | 6 of 10 | 36 of 60 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 50 of 95 | 52% | 35 of 76 | 10 of 10 | 5 of 9 | 19 of 51 | 6 of 11 | 25 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 39 of 70 | 55% | 18 of 43 | 9 of 13 | 12 of 14 | 34 of 61 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 11 of 24 | 45% | 3 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 41 of 73 | 56% | 37 of 67 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 58 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 11 of 22 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 6 of 7 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 16 of 27 | 59% | 10 of 17 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 28 of 49 | 57% | 23 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 26 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 96 of 170 | 56% | 136 of 213 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:10 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 50 of 95 | 52% | 99 of 156 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 5:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 39 of 70 | 55% | 39 of 70 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 41 of 73 | 56% | 62 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 35 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 28 of 49 | 57% | 67 of 97 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 96 of 170 | 56% | 65 of 127 | 14 of 23 | 17 of 20 | 54 of 100 | 6 of 10 | 36 of 60 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 50 of 95 | 52% | 35 of 76 | 10 of 10 | 5 of 9 | 19 of 51 | 6 of 11 | 25 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 39 of 70 | 55% | 18 of 43 | 9 of 13 | 12 of 14 | 34 of 61 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 11 of 24 | 45% | 3 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 41 of 73 | 56% | 37 of 67 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 58 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 11 of 22 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 6 of 7 | |
| 3 | Yair Rodríguez | 16 of 27 | 59% | 10 of 17 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 28 of 49 | 57% | 23 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 26 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
We are now treated to a rematch of the main event from UFC Mexico City in September, which tragically ended due to an eye poke within 15 seconds. Rodriguez (12-2, 1 NC; 7-1, 1 NC UFC) is ready to run it back with Stephens (28-16, 1 NC; 16-15, 1 NC UFC), and tensions are high. Trying to keep a lid on this featherweight tilt is referee Kevin MacDonald. There is no touch of the gloves of any kind, as Rodriguez leaps through the air with a flying head kick that clanks off the dome of Stephens. Stephens wings back some angry punches, and the two trade for a moment with bad intentions. Rodriguez clinches up and pushes Stephens against the cage, and Stephens throws a knee to the body, so Rodriguez retaliates with one of his own. The crowd has started to chant "U.S.A." to root on their home country fighter, and as they break apart, Rodriguez lands a powerful elbows over the top. "El Pantera" throws a wild spinning wheel kick that is nowhere near the mark, but he regains position and throws several heavy kicks on both legs. A few body kicks are finding their home on Stephens' midsection, and they are adding up quick. Stephens fires back with everything he has in the form of right hands, but Rodriguez keeps his distance with effective kicks. Another body kick digs in for Rodriguez, and Stephens has lowered his right hand to defend this specific attack. Stephens ducks down possibly for a takedown, but after a little clinch fighting, the two separate. Rodriguez chooses to crash forward into the clinch again, landing a knee up the middle to get there. As Rodriguez slaps a low kick, Stephens rips a right hand to the body of his opponent. The Mexican pulls off a jumping switch kick that catches Stephens flush, but Stephens walks through it. As Stephens presses forward, Rodriguez drops him with a left jab, but cannot take advantage of his grounded adversary as Stephens returns to his feet. Two more kicks get off from Rodriguez, as Stephens chases him around and motions an obscene gesture to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
Rodriguez opens up round two with a spinning kick, but Stephens is able to get up his guard on time. The Mexican fighter then whips a head kick up top, but it is the body kick that follows that does serious damage and makes Stephens buckle over. As Stephens stumbles backwards, Rodriguez swarms him with punches, throwing everything he has into his punches. Stephens defends himself by pursuing a takedown, but Rodriguez is relentless with punches. "Lil' Heathen" is able to survive the assault by going after low takedowns, but Rodriguez walks over it and lands long punches. On his back, Stephens eats wild hammerfists but begins to throw punches while on his back. Rodriguez latches on a brabo choke, and Stephens is trying to roll out of it and survives the submission attempt but is still in grave danger. With pure willpower, Stephens stands back up and unleashes the hardest punches he can possibly throw on Rodriguez. Rodriguez dodges and weaves out of the way of most of these shots, and as Rodriguez catches Stephens to the body again with a kick, Stephens wraps Rodriguez and tries to take him down. Rodriguez rolls through to try to get out of the position but ends up on his back, with Stephens on top raining down punches. El Pantera throws up his legs to search for a triangle choke, and Stephens is not out of the woods yet. In more of a leg scissor choke than a triangle, Stephens breaks the posture and grinds his elbow on his opponent's face as Rodriguez is warned for grabbing the cage. Rodriguez gradually stands up, and Stephens punishes him with a salvo of punches. The Mexican eats several more shots as he finally gets to his feet, and whips a body kick out that backs away Stephens as this crazy round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
Stephens comes out threatening with big shots, and as Rodriguez throws a kick out to back him off, he catches Stephens in the groin with a kick. Stephens calls the ref off so that he can charge at Rodriguez, and he slings looping shots that score on Rodriguez and get the crowd amped up. Rodriguez tries to keep his distance with leg kicks, and Stephens catches him on the end of a right hand that Rodriguez wears well. Suddenly, Stephens drops for a double leg takedown and gets Rodriguez down, and although Rodriguez gets back up, Stephens makes sure to score with several punches on his way up. The two separate, but not for long, as Stephens rushes in to secure another takedown and lands in Rodriguez' guard. Rodriguez attempts to utilize a rubber guard to get hold of Stephens' neck, but Stephens pushes the leg off and tries to get his ground-and-pound going. It is quite unfortunate that this fight is only three rounds instead of five, as Stephens sits on top in half guard while throwing punches from above. Stephens continues to mount offense on top in the form of numerous left hands, and the American then decides to drop down elbows that get heavier the more he throws. A huge left hand from Stephens scores as he stands up and dives down to land it, and after some more thudding strikes, the fight is now over. In a display of great sportsmanship, the two embrace, both thrilled with their performances.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Rodriguez)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Stephens (28-28 Draw)
The Official Result
Yair Rodriguez def. Jeremy Stephens via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zabit Magomedsharipov | 0 | 41 of 121 | 33% | 45 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 70 of 129 | 54% | 83 of 146 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 2:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zabit Magomedsharipov | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Zabit Magomedsharipov | 0 | 6 of 25 | 24% | 10 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 39 of 58 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 | |
| 3 | Zabit Magomedsharipov | 0 | 25 of 70 | 35% | 25 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 28 of 57 | 49% | 28 of 57 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zabit Magomedsharipov | 41 of 121 | 33% | 20 of 92 | 11 of 16 | 10 of 13 | 41 of 121 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 70 of 129 | 54% | 43 of 95 | 12 of 17 | 15 of 17 | 60 of 117 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zabit Magomedsharipov | 10 of 26 | 38% | 2 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 16 of 31 | 51% | 6 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Zabit Magomedsharipov | 6 of 25 | 24% | 3 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 26 of 41 | 63% | 18 of 30 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 11 | |
| 3 | Zabit Magomedsharipov | 25 of 70 | 35% | 15 of 57 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 28 of 57 | 49% | 19 of 46 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The last preliminary bout is a very intriguing featherweight bout between veteran Jeremy Stephens and rising prospect Zabit Magomedsharipov. The referee in charge of this fight is Mark Smith. Magomedsharipov lands a low kick as Stephens moves forward. He clips him with a long straight left but Stephens returns fire with a low kick of his own. Magomedsharipov lands another low kick. He then lands a heavy body kick on the torso of Stephens, who returns fire with another low kick. Stephens looks to land a right hook to the body but Magomedsharipov counters with a left hook of his own. Magomedsharipov lands a nasty low kick that has the crowd gasping at the brutal sound of it landing. Stephens continues to move forward but Magomedsharipov is having good success countering as he moves closer. Magomedsharipov grabs the fence and lands a side kick on Stephens and the referee warns him not to grab the cage. Magomedsharipov lands a hard straight left as Stephens walks towards him then lands a brutal low kick to the groin of Stephens. The referee calls timeout, but Stephens is ok and the fight resumes. Off the break Magomedshairpov looks to land a Showtime kick off the cage. He doesn’t land it but he does land a really hard kick to the body of Stephens. The round is soon over.
Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Magomedsharipov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedsharipov
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Magomedsharipov
Round 2
Round two begins. Stephens lands a hard low kick and continues to march forward. The referee warns Magomedsharipov not to land any more low blows on Stephens after a brief scare. Magomedsharipov just misses a rare hook kick. Instead, he lands a chopping low kick. Stephens returns with a hard left hook of his own. Magomedsharipov with a straight left down the pipe. Stephens lands a low kick of his own and then pushes forward and lands a straight right to the head of Magomedsharipov. That may have been the best strike of the fight for him. Magomedsharipov lands a brutal left hook to the body of Stephens. Magomedsharipov gets in close and grabs a single leg and then switches to a body lock takedown and gets Stephens to the mat. Stephens is able to get up but Magomedsharipov is pushing him against the fence and working hard to take the back of Stephens. He has one hook in now and Stephens could be in trouble. Magomedsharipov now has back mount with two hooks in. He lands a hard elbow to the back of the head of Stephens and the referee warns him not to do that. Magomedsharipov has over a minute to work and get the submission now and he’s in a great position to do so. Magomedsharipov lands a hard elbow that hurts Stephens and causes him to roll over. Magomedsharipov is now in full mount and he switches to back control now with two hooks in. Magomedsharipov lands some hard elbows from the back and rolls Stephens over. The 10-second clapper signals and the round is over but Magomedsharipov shoves him in the face after the final horn and the referee is forced to separate the fighters.
Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Magomedsharipov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedsharipov
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Magomedsharipov
Round 3
It’s now round three and realistically Stephens needs a finish if he wants to get his hand raised. Like the first two rounds, Stephens is the one moving forward but Magomedsharipov continues to move side-to-side and evade the strikes of Stephens. Magomedsharipov lands another hard kick to the body, and now a low kick. Stephens tries to land a right hook but Magomedsharipov moves away once again. Stephens has Magomedshairpov against the fence and lands a straight right that has the crowd buzzing for a second. But once again Magomedsharipov moves away from danger. Jab from the Russian. Stephens returns with a left hook and Magomedsharipov circles away. Stephens lands a right hook behind his ear. Magomedsharipov dives down for an ankle pick but Stephens hits him with a clubbing right hand and Magomedsharipov backs up. Stephens is finally having some success and is touching the chin of Magomedsharipov with his hands with just a minute left in the fight. Magomedsharipov returns fire with a left hook. Now they are standing in the center of the Octagon and trading short punches. Magomedsharipov lands two hard left hooks that really hurt Stephens. He then changes levels and goes for double leg takedown. Stephens is able to stuff it and after a last-second flying head kick attempt by Magomedsharipov the round and fight are now over.
Sherdog Scores
Adam Martin scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Magomedsharipov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Magomedsharipov)
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Magomedsharipov)
The Official Result
Zabit Magomedsharipov def. Jeremy Stephens via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 1 | 29 of 63 | 46% | 29 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 20 of 60 | 33% | 20 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 1 | 29 of 63 | 46% | 29 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 20 of 60 | 33% | 20 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 29 of 63 | 46% | 21 of 55 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 21 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 20 of 60 | 33% | 16 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 52 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 29 of 63 | 46% | 21 of 55 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 21 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 20 of 60 | 33% | 16 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 52 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Stephens blocks an Aldo high kick with his gloves, then fires a right high kick of his own and bounces it off the Brazilian's shoulder. Aldo lands his first low kicks of the bout as they enter the second minute, with Stephens pressing forward, looking to close the gap. Stephens clinches up and throws a knee to the body, then backs up and lands a leg kick of his own. Aldo catches Stephens rushing forward and plunks him with a counter uppercut. Stephens keeps coming, though, and runs "Scarface" against the fence with a heavy barrage of punches. Aldo eats a point-blank uppercut and doesn't budge; in fact, the former champion walks off the fence and backs up Stephens with a combination. Stephens, now sporting some redness and swelling under his right eye, whiffs on a spinning backfist as Aldo takes a turn coming forward. Aldo misses with a one-two but splits the guard of Stephens with a straight right hand. Stephens tries to retaliate and
gets blown up with a vicious left hand to the liver. Stephens hits the deck and Aldo pounces, trying to pound out the Alliance MMA product.
Stephens is trapped on his right side with Aldo straddling him, dropping punches. Stephens gets caught in an unfortunate position with his head flat on the canvas, and after a few clean hammerfists from Aldo, referee Yves Lavigne decides to stop the fight. Aldo bursts into tears as he's swarmed by his corner, the former 145-pound king collecting his first win in over two years.
The Official Result
Jose Aldo def. Jeremy Stephens via TKO (Punches) R1 4:19
Josh Emmett - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Vallejos | 2 | 36 of 55 | 65% | 43 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Vallejos | 2 | 36 of 55 | 65% | 43 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 3 of 12 | 25% | 2 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Vallejos | 36 of 55 | 65% | 30 of 49 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 21 | 10 of 14 | 14 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 3 of 12 | 25% | 2 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Vallejos | 36 of 55 | 65% | 30 of 49 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 21 | 10 of 14 | 14 of 20 |
Angelo sees this as a setup fight designed to boost Kevin Vallejos. He notes that Josh Emmett is an aging fighter who no longer wrestles and relies on knockout power, but is too old and slow to keep up with Vallejos's speed and power. He believes Vallejos will win straightforwardly, possibly by knockout, and that Emmett's wrestling is no longer a factor.
Big Brady picks Kevin Vallejos to win by dominant decision. He is very worried about Josh Emmett's age (41) and the damage he took in the Ilia Topuria fight. He believes Vallejos is younger, hungrier, and will destroy Emmett on the feet over five rounds. He sees Emmett's only path as a lucky catch, but Vallejos has a good chin.
Cody picks Kevin Vallejos based on the 17-year age gap, speed advantage, and superior jab. He notes Emmett's power is his only win condition, but Vallejos has durability and can outwork him. He acknowledges the price is too rich for a parlay anchor but expects Vallejos to win.
Connor picks Vallejos, banking on his durability. He believes Vallejos will get plugged by Emmett's power but can take the shots, as evidenced by his fight with John Silva. He thinks Vallejos can build a lead over five rounds with a steady work rate.
James picks Kevin Vallejos to win, citing his boxing advantage, better technique, and ability to break Emmett down with calf kicks. He notes Emmett's durability and experience in five-round fights but believes Vallejos will win a decision. He mentions that Vallejos is improving and has a skill advantage on the feet, though he cautions about Vallejos' unproven cardio over five rounds.
The host picks Vallejos to win by decision but is hesitant due to the steep odds. He expects Vallejos to be more active and land more damage over five rounds, but acknowledges Emmett's durability and power make him a live dog. He likes the over 3.5 rounds and notes that Emmett's experience could make it competitive. He suggests Emmett at +475 has value.
Paul agrees Vallejos is talented but can't pull the trigger at -550. He would take a small shot on Emmett as a hedge, believing Emmett's durability and experience could cause problems over five rounds. He expects Vallejos to win 75% of the time but the price is too steep.
The Guru picks Kevin Vallejos, calling him the next Ilia Topuria. He believes Vallejos will weather Emmett's early power, use his shoulder roll and guard, and then piece together combinations to the body and head for a TKO in the second or third round. He notes Emmett is diminished and weak to the body.
Zane picks Vallejos based on durability and pace. He notes that Vallejos has a hell of a chin and can dictate a better pace, while Emmett is 41 and choosy. However, he acknowledges it's not clear cut and Emmett could have a good night.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Youssef Zalal | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Youssef Zalal | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Youssef Zalal | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Youssef Zalal | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zalal (-440), Emmett (+340)
Round 1
The UFC knew exactly what it was doing when it paired brick-fisted Emmett (19-5, 10-5 UFC) with whirling dervish Zalal (17-5-1, 7-3-1 UFC), and a passing of the torch moment may come when the dust settles. While Emmett may have passed the 40-year-old threshold, the last thing to go is the power. Referee Jason Herzog dons his proverbial hard hat as the two featherweight contenders touch ‘em up.
Zalal approaches with his hands wide by his sides, and his leg ready to fly. Zalal lands a quick kick and darts out of the way when Emmett bears down on him. Zalal whiffs on a front kick, and he shoots for a double when Emmett is about to strike. Zalal succeeds in grounding the Team Alpha Male-trained athlete with ease, and he advances to three-quarter mount while clinging to an arm-triangle setup. Emmett muscles his man over, and Zalal isolates his foe’s arm in pursuit of an armbar. Emmett keeps his weight pressed down on top, and he starts stepping over to try to get out of the sub. With Emmett’s arms both trapped, he is stunned and has to call out “tap tap tap” in order to signal that he is done and does not want to get his limb snapped. The crowd is silenced as Herzog steps in, not entirely knowing what has just happened. Fans start booing until they realize that Emmett verbally surrendered, and then they chill out because Zalal just notched an extremely impressive victory over a perennial contender in under two minutes. In victory, Zalal declares that he will be champion one day.
The Official Result
Youssef Zalal def. Josh Emmett R1 1:38 via Submission (Armbar)
Angelo picks Youssef Zalal, citing his ability to be an outside distance striker or a full-blown grappler. He notes Zalal's high fight IQ and low strikes absorbed per minute. He acknowledges Josh Emmett's power and experience but thinks Zalal's versatility and youth will be key. He is surprised Zalal is almost a 4-to-1 favorite and would set the line at -170.
Big Brady sees this as an easy win for Zalal, who is in his prime at 29, while Emmett is 40 and fighting at featherweight. He believes Zalal can use his speed and footwork to avoid Emmett's power and mix in takedowns. He predicts Zalal by decision.
Connor picks Zalal, agreeing that Zalal's movement and ability to fight at range will give Emmett problems. He notes that Emmett's only major improvement was learning to throw punches at two speeds, but he still lacks dexterity and cage-cutting skills. Connor also mentions that Zalal's performance against Calvin Katter showed he can neutralize opponents, though he cautions that Emmett's power is a constant threat.
Zalal's style is expected to be too difficult for Emmett to track. Emmett may land some big shots, but Zalal should flow with them and get off his own offense, winning a boring decision.
The MMA Guru picks Youssef Zalal, believing his counter-striking and movement will frustrate Josh Emmett. He notes Emmett's predictable overhands and lack of grappling. He predicts a late TKO via knee up the middle.
Zane picks Zalal because he believes Zalal can frustrate Emmett with movement and range control, similar to how Laron Murphy and Yair Rodriguez did. He notes that Emmett lacks a range game and struggles when opponents refuse to engage in the pocket. Zane also points out that Zalal is a dangerous striker with good combinations and that Emmett's limited offensive toolkit makes him vulnerable to a neutralizing game plan.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 41 of 143 | 28% | 44 of 149 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 84 of 157 | 53% | 117 of 195 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 10 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 3 of 11 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 26 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 5 of 25 | 20% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 33 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 13 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 22 of 41 | 53% | 26 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 11 of 44 | 25% | 11 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 21 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 41 of 143 | 28% | 29 of 124 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 8 | 40 of 133 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 3 |
| Lerone Murphy | 84 of 157 | 53% | 37 of 90 | 17 of 30 | 30 of 37 | 75 of 148 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 10 of 28 | 35% | 6 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Lerone Murphy | 10 of 24 | 41% | 5 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Josh Emmett | 2 of 8 | 25% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Lerone Murphy | 13 of 21 | 61% | 2 of 7 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Josh Emmett | 5 of 25 | 20% | 3 of 19 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Lerone Murphy | 21 of 36 | 58% | 11 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 16 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Josh Emmett | 13 of 38 | 34% | 9 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lerone Murphy | 22 of 41 | 53% | 9 of 22 | 4 of 7 | 9 of 12 | 22 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Josh Emmett | 11 of 44 | 25% | 10 of 41 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Lerone Murphy | 18 of 35 | 51% | 10 of 21 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 9 | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lerone Murphy as the overall better fighter, more technical and cleaner. He notes Murphy moves well, has power, and scrambles well after takedowns. He acknowledges Josh Emmett has power and wrestling but doesn't use his wrestling often. Angelo is concerned about Murphy being dropped by Dan Ige but believes Murphy can fight a perfect fight for 25 minutes. He picks Murphy despite the steep odds.
Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy, noting his career-best performance against Edson Barboza and 25-minute cardio. He believes Josh Emmett, at 40 and on a layoff, is unlikely to win three rounds and will need an early KO. He expects Murphy to outwork Emmett and win a decision.
Connor picks Emmett, citing Murphy's history of giving opponents chances to land huge shots and his tendency to adjust mid-fight rather than prepare. He compares Emmett to Dan Henderson for his simple, powerful game and notes that Murphy's worst round is always the first, where he often has no plan. Connor trusts that Emmett's power and persistence will catch Murphy, especially given Murphy's vulnerability to being hurt.
Murphy is the better fighter and closer to his prime. He will start to pull away in the third and fourth rounds, mixing up his clinch game, wrestling, and technical striking to evade Emmett's power, winning on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Lerone Murphy after changing his mind upon rewatching Emmett fights. He argues Murphy's consistent decision wins show he is reliably better, while Emmett relies on KO power that is sporadic. He notes Emmett's age (40), long layoff, and accumulated damage, and believes Murphy's range, volume, and game-planning will allow him to outwork Emmett over five rounds. He predicts a decision win or a late finish.
Zane picks Murphy because he sees many ways for Murphy to win—using range, kicks, and avoiding overextension—while Emmett's path is narrow: a single big shot. He notes Murphy's adaptability and recovery, but acknowledges his tendency to start slow and make mistakes, which could be fatal against Emmett's power. Zane believes Murphy can avoid the one mistake that costs him the fight, given Emmett's predictable offense.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 1 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 1 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 2 of 10 | 20% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 2 of 10 | 20% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mitchell (-225), Emmett (+185)
Round 1
On short notice, this featherweight pairing turned from a striker’s delight to a classic striker vs. grappler affair. Ready to throw hands aplenty will be Emmett (18-4, 9-4 UFC), while late replacement and grappling ace Mitchell (16-1, 7-1 UFC) wishes to shut that all down. 2023 Referee of the Year Herb Dean will be the third man in the Octagon, and the fighters are glad to be fighting tonight but do not express it with a glove touch. Mitchell starts off with pressure, but Emmett reaches out with a right hand to the body. Mitchell backs off and aims a low kick, and Emmett evades it and responds in kind. The fighters keep a wide berth from one another, and Emmett eventually moves forward and aims another right to the midsection. Emmett gets off a left hand and tries to follow it with a huge right hook, but Mitchell is out of the way before the latter connects. With malice in his eyes, Emmett unloads a bomb of a right hand that detonates flush on Mitchell’s chin. Mitchell goes down on his side in a heap, and he is completely out. Emmett lets out a guttural victory scream as Dean grabs him from behind to make sure that Emmett will not pursue a follow-up shot. As Dean lets go, he tends to the fallen Mitchell, who begins convulsing in unconsciousness. Medical staff members rush into the cage when alerted to Mitchell’s scary condition, as Mitchell goes into a full-blown grand mal seizure. After some time, Mitchell recovers and learns that he was starched. He tries to get back to his feet, but he cannot stand on his own. Mitchell is helped out of the cage, in good spirits despite just suffering a crushing defeat, and when Emmett feels comfortable celebrating, he does so with his corner of Team Alpha Male—which went 3-0 tonight, after Fili, Garbrandt and Emmett all recorded knockout wins. Hello, "Knockout of the Year"? You have a new contender calling.
The Official Result
Josh Emmett def. Bryce Mitchell R1 1:57 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell, trusting his wrestling to overcome Josh Emmett's power. He notes that Emmett is older and has abandoned wrestling for knockouts, while Mitchell is a relentless grappler. He has a half-unit bet on Mitchell at -140.
Big Brady picks Josh Emmett as an underdog, citing concerns about Bryce Mitchell's short notice and reliance on relentless wrestling. He notes Emmett's wrestling background and that no one has consistently taken him down and controlled him. Brady highlights Emmett's power (7 consecutive fights with a knockdown) and believes if Mitchell can't get takedowns, he'll get knocked out. He predicts a damage-based decision or knockout for Emmett.
Cody picks Mitchell, arguing that Mitchell's wrestling and physical strength will be too much for Emmett. He notes that Emmett has poor takedown defense and that Mitchell will grind on him, break him down, and secure a finish. Cody also points out that Emmett is 38 and coming off a brutal beating from Ilia Topuria, while Mitchell is a contender on the rise. He expects Mitchell to win inside the distance.
Lucrative James picks Bryce Mitchell, believing he will get takedowns and work from top. He notes that Josh Emmett gets taken down often and gives up his back, and that Emmett is slowing down. He thinks Mitchell's tenacity and youth (29) will be key, and that even on the feet Mitchell can hold his own. He sees this as a spot where the favorite is justified, unlike other fights on the card.
The host believes Mitchell's smothering grappling will be too much for Emmett, who is 38 and coming off a brutal loss to Topuria. He notes that Mitchell can close the distance, initiate the clinch, and bully Emmett to the mat, where he can grind out a decision or find a submission. He acknowledges Emmett's power but thinks Mitchell's durability and ability to avoid clean shots will allow him to implement his game plan. He predicts Mitchell by decision.
Paul picks Emmett at +200, questioning why Mitchell is such a big favorite. He notes that Emmett has power and can make it a tough night for Mitchell if the fight stays standing. He acknowledges Emmett's takedown defense is a concern (46%) but believes Emmett's explosiveness and power give him a chance. Paul is not fully confident but sees value at the underdog price.
The Guru picks Josh Emmett over Bryce Mitchell, noting Emmett's power, wrestling background, and full camp (originally preparing for Giga Chikadze). He believes Mitchell's takedowns won't succeed due to Emmett's short, stocky build and takedown defense, and that Mitchell will be vulnerable on the feet. He predicts a TKO win for Emmett.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 0 | 87 of 305 | 28% | 89 of 309 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 1 | 152 of 344 | 44% | 171 of 365 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 14 of 68 | 20% | 14 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 21 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 19 of 68 | 27% | 19 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 30 of 75 | 40% | 30 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 31 of 81 | 38% | 31 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 37 of 91 | 40% | 37 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 13 of 52 | 25% | 15 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 1 | 56 of 100 | 56% | 62 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 5 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 10 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 21 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 87 of 305 | 28% | 43 of 232 | 26 of 53 | 18 of 20 | 87 of 305 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 152 of 344 | 44% | 124 of 302 | 9 of 16 | 19 of 26 | 114 of 289 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 53 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 14 of 68 | 20% | 8 of 58 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 21 of 56 | 37% | 14 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 21 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 19 of 68 | 27% | 8 of 47 | 6 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 19 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 30 of 75 | 40% | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 25 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 31 of 81 | 38% | 16 of 60 | 7 of 12 | 8 of 9 | 31 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 37 of 91 | 40% | 30 of 80 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 37 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Ilia Topuria | 13 of 52 | 25% | 6 of 39 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 56 of 100 | 56% | 50 of 90 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 26 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 43 | |
| 5 | Ilia Topuria | 10 of 36 | 27% | 5 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 8 of 22 | 36% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-320), Emmett (+265)
Round 1
We have reached the main event after a fairly lengthy midday event. It should be a treat that presents a great deal of excitement, giving the Jacksonville fans one last brawl. Coming off an unsuccessful shot at the interim strap, Emmett (18-3, 9-3 UFC) wants to show at 38 he is not done yet. On the other side of the equation, 12 years Emmett’s junior, Topuria (13-0, 5-0 UFC) is undefeated and fast on the rise with violence in spades. Chins will almost certainly be tested before it is all said and done, and referee Marc Goddard receives the honor of officiating this hopefully thrilling headliner. There is nothing but respect between the two, as they tap their gloves together before the hostilities commence. Emmett blitzes forward right out of the gate, making the Georgian retreat early as Emmett bears down on him. Topuria is no worse for wear, and Emmett targets the body and head with surges of punches. Emmett circles around his relatively stationary adversary, and he stumbles as he drops low. Emmett gets up and goes back to potshotting Topuria with power range punches. Topuria sits down on a right hand counter, giving Emmett a little pause to advance recklessly. The two start trading furiously from up close, and Topuria backs off and targets the body. Emmett takes a solid right hand on the jaw, and he keeps moving and swaying. Topuria reaches him with an uppercut to the midsection, and he leans back from a swatting combo coming back at him. They trade left hooks, and Topuria flicks out several jabs to mark up Emmett’s face. Emmett throws so hard he nearly falls over, putting everything he has into his punches. Topuria’s guard is able to protect him from the worst of the blows, and he sees the wide looping right hands from afar. Topuria lands a low kick and keeps active with a jab, and he absorbs a flush right hand on the cheek. Topuria drills a kick that makes Emmett turn around, and he intercepts an advancing Emmett with another calf kick and a jab. A cut on the corner of Emmett’s eye opens up, and Emmett ignores it and throws caution to the wins with a chopping kick and an overhand right. Topuria jabs his way into an exchange, and Emmett is right there to stand and bang. Emmett reaches out with a right hand, and he clips Topuria with a check left hook while Topuria is backing away. Topuria closes in and wings two punches, and the tense round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 2
The second round opens with a glove touch, and the swelling around Emmett’s left eye has grown. Emmett strikes first with a leg kick, and he comes up just short with two looping hooks. Topuria jabs effectively to stifle Emmett’s best offense, and Emmett responds with multiple body shots. Topuria chops at the lead wheel and pokes out with a jab, which reminds Emmett that he can also jab as well. Emmett lunges with a few punches, and the low kick at the end of his strikes connects. Topuria pulls back on a few big strikes, and Emmett closes in and pops him with a left hook. Topuria does not let him off the hook, landing with his own blow. Emmett lumps up the calf with a kick, and he charges in with four punches. Topuria counters him cleanly with a single right hand to make Emmett think twice, and he settles down with a hard low kick. Topuria beats Emmett to the punch with a right hook, and his speed is giving Emmett fits thus far. Emmett checks a low kick and wings a right hand that glances off the side. Topuria is frequently moving when Emmett loads up on his big right hook, and this lets very few of them land flush. The jabs from Topuria have bloodied up Emmett’s nose as well, and it snaps out and is met with a left hook on the way in. Topuria chains a few punches together and backs off when Emmett bullrushes him. Emmett slips on the way in, and Topuria takes advantage of this by smashing him in the face with a right hand. Emmett gets his back against the ropes, and he swings with bad intentions and drops Topuria. The Spanish/Georgian fighter scampers back to his feet and is not overly concerned, and he returns to his tactic of jabs and low kicks. Emmett brushes his right hand over the hair, and he checks a kick on the way back. Topuria slides out of the way of a big shot from Emmett, and he cracks the Californian with a right hand. Emmett drops to his hands, and Topuria rushes down and starts smacking him upside the head. Topuria lets go when Emmett rears back with a right hand, and the second frame wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 3
The two reach the third round and begin trading, and Topuria slides back and kicks the lead calf of Emmett. Emmett staggers from the damage, and he gathers his thoughts and wings an overhand right. Topuria comes at him throwing two big shots, and Emmett goes high with a kick. Emmett slams his shin on the calf twice, and he jabs Topuria when Topuria closes the distance. Emmett chips with another kick and misses with an overhand right, and Topuria just comes up short with his own counter. As Emmett ducks down to throw him off, Topuria follows him. Emmett catches Topuria with a left hook, and Topuria snipes him with a left hook back and connects with a leg kick. The featherweights crash together with fierce fists, and Emmett tags Topuria with a few huge punches. Topuria gives it right back, and he slashes open a cut on the cheek while also advancing Emmett’s swelling. Emmett stings Topuria with a right hand on the temple, and they clack their shins together with simultaneous kicks. Emmett digs a left to the body, and he is intercepted with a short right hand. Topuria knocks his man back with a jab, and he eats a clean right hand without batting an eye. Topuria measures Emmett with accurate jabs and follow-up punches, while Emmett meets him in the middle and bangs. Emmett walks through a leg kick, and they proceed to swing for the fences. Topuria snaps his jab out brilliantly, and Emmett’s left eye is almost closed. Emmett uses his own jab to decent effect, but its volume is nowhere near the unbeaten fighter’s. Topuria strings a few punches together to bust Emmett’s face up badly, and the side of it is covered in red. Emmett ducks a few punches to counter, and he pops Topuria in the chops with a left hook. Emmett beats Topuria to the punch with a right hand, and he waves Topuria on to brawl with him. Emmett overswings with his punches, and he targets the body and lead calf as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Emmett
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Emmett
Round 4
We have ourselves a fight as the two reach the championship rounds, and they clap hands to get started. Emmett wades into the fray, landing at the end of a few punches as Topuria’s movement has slowed to a small degree. Emmett blitzes, and Topuria hops out of the way to evade most of the strikes. Topuria sticks out a jab, and he pins a one-two on the chin when Emmett chops at his calf. Topuria flicks out a few more jabs, and Emmett goes over the top with a big right. Topuria continues to work his jab, and Emmett aims a punch to the chest and one to the ribs. Topuria nails his foe with a leg kick, and Emmett has to hop back for a second to get his bearings. Emmett reaches out with a right hook, but Topuria is able to lean back and zip out a few jabs and a one-two. Emmett looks for a left to the body, and he gets his calf kicked and he squats down after it lands hard. Emmett rushes with looping shots that Topuria is able to avoid without problems, and when that one fails, he blitzes a second time. The body shot from Emmett does score, and Topuria’s jab snaps Emmet’s head back. Topuria times a big right hand to counter with one of his own, and he spins away before Emmett can reach him. Two punches from Topuria knock Emmett off-balance, and he learns that he is in trouble before his body does. Emmett falls to the ground, and Topuria beats on him in an effort to stop the fight. Emmett’s toughness is off the charts, as he survives the barrage of unanswered punches and gets back to his feet. Emmett climbs up with the fence behind him and wings power punches, but Topuria is faster and more accurate. A vicious leg kick and second flurry from “El Matador” knocks Emmett of his feet again, and he jumps straight into mount and tries to finish the job with his fists. Topuria drops down punches and hammerfists, and Emmett turns to his stomach and manages to survive to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 5
Between rounds, Goddard calls in the doctor to check on the swelling and damage of Emmett’s face. Emmett is able to pass the vision tests, and he informs Goddard he is more than willing to keep fighting despite his disfigurement. The two featherweights touch ‘em up one final time to begin the last round, and Emmett is a man possessed. Emmett charges with everything he has, and he rocks Topuria with a huge right hand. Topuria bounces off the fencing several times, in a surprisingly bad way, and Emmett gives chase swinging bombs. Emmett checks a kick, and Topuria gets back to his rhythm of jabs and calf kicks. Emmett hops around to get some feeling back in his leg, and he kicks with his other one. Emmett walks through a jab to lob a left hook, and he is throwing haymakers that Topuria is barely dodging. Emmett whiffs on a huge left hand, and he kicks the calf while Topuria is jabbing him. Emmett strikes the body and fires off massive hooks, and Topuria sees them coming and blocks them. Emmett reaches Topuria with a shovel left hook, and Topuria keeps moving so that he does not present as a stationary target. Emmett goes to the body with a left and bring a right over the top, and he swings with a subsequent left that opens him up to a takedown attempt. Topuria lands in half guard from his successful double, and Emmett turns to his side and works to a knee. Emmett wipes at his badly swollen eye as Topuria holds on from behind, although he cannot explode back up to his feet. Topuria clings to Emmett as precious seconds tick off the clock, and he manages to hit a mat return. Emmett scrambles, and the two roll around until Topuria follows to get the back again. Emmett works his way up, thanks in part to a fence grab, and Topuria wrenches him right back down. Topuria takes the back and flattens Emmett out for a moment, but Emmett turns to his side once more as he uses all of his last remaining energy to get up. Topuria punches Emmett on the side of the head a few more times for good measure, and Emmett muscles his way to his feet right at the sound of the final bell. These two featherweights have gone the distance after five violent rounds, and the stock of the younger Topuria is going to climb significantly after this excellent showing. Topuria will advance himself to a clean 14-0 as a pro, with two decision wins on his ledger now. In victory, “El Matador” declares himself as “the next guy” for the featherweight belt, and he wants to take on Alexander Volkanovski to become the first one to beat him at this weight class. There is little time to savor this, as the UFC train will keep on rolling. The next show will be in the UFC Apex in a week, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (49-45 Topuria)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (50-45 Topuria)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (49-46 Topuria)
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Josh Emmett via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-42, 49-45)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria, citing his phenomenal wrestling, speed, power, and ability to adjust on the fly. He notes Topuria is the better wrestler, faster, and hits just as hard as Emmett. He acknowledges Emmett has insane power and Topuria has been rocked before, but outside of a lucky punch, Emmett won't have much to offer. He says the 3-to-1 odds seem correct.
Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria, believing he should win but notes the line is wide. He emphasizes Topuria's elite grappling and BJJ black belt, which he should use to take Emmett down. He has concerns about Topuria's cardio if the fight goes deep and his tendency to get hit, as seen against Jai Herbert. He predicts a first-round submission, but acknowledges a knockout is possible. He notes Emmett's power and age (38) as factors.
Cody picks Topuria but with hesitation, citing concerns about Topuria's cardio in a five-round fight and the step up in competition. He notes Emmett's power and experience, and suggests this fight is better for live betting. He ultimately sides with Topuria due to youth and skills but is wary of the hype.
Connor picks Topuria, focusing on the question of whether Topuria can fight outside the pocket and if Emmett can keep him out. He argues that Emmett is a potshotter who struggles when opponents force prolonged exchanges, as seen against Yair Rodriguez. Connor believes Topuria's boxing defense and counter-punching are reliable against Emmett's headhunting, but notes the massive caveat that Emmett's power is a constant threat, especially given Topuria's history of being hurt.
Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's youth (12 years younger), superior boxing, and better jiu-jitsu. He believes Topuria will outbox and finish Emmett in the mid to late rounds. He acknowledges Emmett's power and wrestling but thinks Topuria's cardio concerns are overblown, noting Topuria's short-notice fight against Yusuff. He also mentions Topuria's ability to mix in takedowns and his overall versatility. He is not betting at -310 but is confident in the pick.
The host picks Ilia Topuria to win but is hesitant due to the line being too wide at around -300. He notes that Josh Emmett has tremendous experience against high-level competition and that Topuria hasn't proven himself against a fighter of Emmett's caliber. He suggests value on Emmett's side and expects violence, possibly a finish from either fighter. He ultimately goes with Topuria but advises against betting the moneyline at current odds.
Paul picks Topuria, acknowledging his elite boxing and jiu-jitsu, but notes the only question mark is his chin after being dropped by Jai Herbert. He thinks the line is accurate and that Topuria outclasses Emmett in many departments, but he won't tie himself financially to this fight.
The Guru picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's youth (26 vs 38), longer layoff without damage, and superior combination punching. He notes Emmett's tendency to throw only 1-2 shots before resetting, while Topuria strings together multi-punch combinations with pauses that can catch Emmett coming out of his own exchanges. He also mentions Emmett's quick turnaround after a war with Yair Rodriguez and brutal weight cuts as potential factors. However, he acknowledges both have one-punch KO power and calls it a dangerous fight, closer to 60-40 than the lopsided public polling suggests.
Zane picks Topuria, emphasizing that Emmett's style is vulnerable to aggressive pressure fighters who don't respect his power, as seen in losses to Yair Rodriguez and Jeremy Stephens. He notes Topuria's superior boxing technique and body punching, but acknowledges the risk of Topuria's recklessness and Emmett's one-shot power. Zane sees Topuria as the more skilled pocket fighter but warns that Emmett could land a fight-ending shot at any moment.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 62 of 107 | 57% | 98 of 143 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 35 of 72 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 26 of 53 | 49% | 32 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 36 of 54 | 66% | 66 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 17 of 34 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 62 of 107 | 57% | 36 of 76 | 18 of 22 | 8 of 9 | 47 of 87 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 11 |
| Josh Emmett | 22 of 52 | 42% | 17 of 44 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 26 of 53 | 49% | 14 of 39 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 7 |
| Josh Emmett | 12 of 26 | 46% | 10 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 9 | |
| 2 | Yair Rodríguez | 36 of 54 | 66% | 22 of 37 | 11 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 26 of 43 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 |
| Josh Emmett | 10 of 26 | 38% | 7 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Josh Emmett, citing his power and wrestling base, though he notes Emmett doesn't use his wrestling often. He believes Emmett's power will be the difference, especially if he can stay close and grind. He acknowledges Yair's creativity and athleticism but thinks Emmett's power and pressure will win. He has a half-unit bet on Emmett at +135.
Big Brady thinks this is a close fight and picks Emmett for the upset. He notes Emmett's power and volume, and thinks Emmett will have the bigger moments. He expects a decision win for Emmett, similar to the Kattar fight, and says the line should be closer.
Cody picks Rodríguez but is not confident due to Rodríguez's inconsistency. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway with improved cardio and kicking volume, but Emmett has power and wrestling he doesn't use offensively. He thinks Emmett's path is a big shot, but Rodríguez's chin and volume should edge him out. He finds the -175 line unappealing and won't bet it.
Connor picks Rodríguez, citing his diverse kicking game and durability as key factors. He notes that Emmett's style is one-dimensional and that Rodríguez can attack from range with kicks, which Emmett struggles to check. Connor also mentions that Emmett's wrestling is not a reliable threat, as he rarely uses it. He believes Rodríguez's toughness and ability to absorb punches will allow him to outwork Emmett over three rounds.
Emmett's power punching and forward pressure will be too much for Rodríguez as the fight goes on. Rodríguez slows down in later rounds, as seen against Jeremy Stephens. Emmett has great cardio and defensive wrestling to keep it standing. He will close the distance and land big combinations, likely finishing in the fourth or fifth round. Rodríguez's unorthodox striking may be competitive early, but Emmett's durability and pressure will take over.
Paul slightly favors Rodríguez on volume, noting Emmett has a power advantage but Rodríguez has better durability. He expects a close competitive fight and thinks the line is accurate, so he won't bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Yair Rodríguez over Josh Emmett, citing Emmett's controversial wins and Rodríguez's improved performance against Ortega. He predicts a front kick KO in the first round, noting Rodríguez's chin and Emmett's tendency to get hit. He believes Rodríguez is on a higher level than Emmett.
Zane also picks Rodríguez, emphasizing his improved composure and durability. He notes that Emmett's power is a threat, but Rodríguez has never been knocked out and can take shots. Zane highlights that Rodríguez's kicks will be a major problem for Emmett, who has shown vulnerability to low kicks. He also points out that Emmett's wrestling is not a consistent factor, and Rodríguez's range management will frustrate him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 130 of 375 | 34% | 131 of 376 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 107 of 332 | 32% | 107 of 332 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 15 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 11 of 35 | 31% | 11 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 22 of 78 | 28% | 22 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 26 of 73 | 35% | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 19 of 66 | 28% | 19 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 27 of 77 | 35% | 27 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 41 of 106 | 38% | 41 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 21 of 80 | 26% | 21 of 80 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 5 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 34 of 86 | 39% | 34 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Calvin Kattar | 0 | 22 of 67 | 32% | 22 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 130 of 375 | 34% | 114 of 351 | 15 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 130 of 375 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 107 of 332 | 32% | 73 of 286 | 26 of 37 | 8 of 9 | 106 of 330 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 14 of 39 | 35% | 12 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 11 of 35 | 31% | 8 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Josh Emmett | 22 of 78 | 28% | 20 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 26 of 73 | 35% | 19 of 63 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Josh Emmett | 19 of 66 | 28% | 18 of 62 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 27 of 77 | 35% | 18 of 65 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 77 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Josh Emmett | 41 of 106 | 38% | 35 of 98 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 41 of 106 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 21 of 80 | 26% | 13 of 68 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Josh Emmett | 34 of 86 | 39% | 29 of 79 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Calvin Kattar | 22 of 67 | 32% | 15 of 58 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 22 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Calvin Kattar, citing his superior boxing, footwork, and technique. He notes Kattar's 90% takedown defense and believes he can avoid Emmett's power. He acknowledges the possibility of Emmett winning by power and damage (like Font vs Vera) but thinks Kattar's pressure and volume will win the decision.
Big Brady picks Calvin Kattar to win by fourth-round knockout. He notes Kattar is younger, taller, and has a reach advantage, and is the better striker with excellent boxing combinations. He acknowledges Emmett's power and seven-fight knockdown streak, but trusts Kattar's chin (never knocked down) and believes Kattar's volume and length will wear Emmett down for a late finish.
Cody believes Calvin Kattar's volume and technical striking will overwhelm Josh Emmett over five rounds. He notes Emmett's power is dangerous but Kattar's durability and head movement are elite, and Emmett rarely uses his wrestling. He expects Kattar to pull away late and suggests Kattar by decision as a prop.
Daniel Levi leans Calvin Kattar as the minute winner, believing Kattar's jab and improved striking variety will keep him ahead on the scorecards. However, he emphasizes that Josh Emmett's one-punch power and ability to steal rounds make this a dog-or-pass betting situation, especially with Kattar at -230. He notes Kattar absorbs a lot of strikes and Emmett has knocked down every featherweight opponent, so a finish is possible either way. Levi ultimately sees it as a coin flip and prefers not to lay the heavy juice.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Kattar's volume and technical superiority. He points out that Emmett's power is a threat but Kattar's durability and five-round experience favor him. He notes the over/under is set high, suggesting a decision is likely, and he picks Kattar as the rightful favorite.
The MMA Guru picks Calvin Kattar, trusting his technique and durability. He notes that Josh Emmett has power but has struggled against tough opponents like Jeremy Stephens and Dan Ige. He believes Kattar has better boxing, a good chin, and a front kick to keep Emmett at distance. He predicts Kattar will get hurt early but recover and finish Emmett in the third round via TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 1 | 60 of 165 | 36% | 62 of 167 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:47 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 70 of 168 | 41% | 73 of 171 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 1 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:36 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 23 of 50 | 46% | 25 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 2 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 26 of 64 | 40% | 26 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 25 of 56 | 44% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 20 of 70 | 28% | 21 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 22 of 62 | 35% | 22 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 60 of 165 | 36% | 51 of 151 | 7 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 48 of 151 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 7 |
| Dan Ige | 70 of 168 | 41% | 54 of 147 | 9 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 68 of 164 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 14 of 31 | 45% | 11 of 26 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 7 |
| Dan Ige | 23 of 50 | 46% | 18 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Josh Emmett | 26 of 64 | 40% | 21 of 58 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 61 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 25 of 56 | 44% | 20 of 50 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Josh Emmett | 20 of 70 | 28% | 19 of 67 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 22 of 62 | 35% | 16 of 52 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 59 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Josh Emmett to win, but with some hesitation due to Emmett's age (36) and layoff. He notes that Emmett is one of the hardest hitters in the division, with knockdowns in his last six fights. Ige is durable and has never been finished, but has been knocked down before. Brady expects Emmett's power to be the key, possibly leading to a decision win if he can't finish Ige. He also mentions that Ige is younger and the line movement favors Ige.
Daniel Levi picks Josh Emmett to win, highlighting his incredible volume and power. He notes that Emmett's strike output increases as the fight progresses, unlike typical power punchers. Levi mentions Emmett's wrestling background and his most knockdowns in featherweight history. He believes Emmett is a bad matchup for Dan Ige, who tends to take rounds off and has defensive issues. Levi sees value in Emmett at -150, opening at -200, and expects a knockout or dominant decision.
The MMA Guru picks Josh Emmett to win by decision (29-28). He praises Emmett's power, footwork, and technical striking, noting his ability to drop opponents with jabs. He believes Dan Ige was exposed by Korean Zombie and lacks the technical ability to handle Emmett's power and movement.
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