UFC on Fox: Emmett vs. Stephens · Feb 24, 2018 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on Fox: Emmett vs. Stephens Next Fight
Age 40
Height 6' 2"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 37
Height 6' 3"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Sam Alvey
3.28 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
3.63 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.06 TD Avg
14.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Marcin Prachnio
5.52 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
3.15 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.14 TD Avg
20.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Sam Alvey - Fight History
TKO (punches) R1 1:56 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 2 22 of 37 59% 40 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 2 22 of 37 59% 40 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michał Oleksiejczuk 3 of 11 27% 1 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 22 of 37 59% 18 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 1 12 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michał Oleksiejczuk 3 of 11 27% 1 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 22 of 37 59% 18 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 1 12 of 17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Angelo picks Michał Oleksiejczuk despite his poor performance against Dustin Jacoby. He highlights Oleksiejczuk's speed and pressure, and notes that Sam Alvey's chin may be fading after getting rocked by Brendan Allen. He believes Oleksiejczuk can stay on the outside and avoid Alvey's wild strikes to win.

"michael's going to be my pick here because even though he looked pretty bad in that fight with dustin jacoby he's still lightning fast and we saw that sam alvey's chin might be fading here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Big Brady is very confident in Michał Oleksiejczuk, noting that Sam Alvey is on an eight-fight winless streak and has not won since 2018. He describes Alvey's style as low-volume and predictable, while Oleksiejczuk is a fast starter who throws combinations and attacks the body. He predicts a first-round knockout win for Oleksiejczuk, stating that Alvey's chin is questionable and he expects a statement performance.

first round knockout prediction
"i think ola zach should win this fight and i'm actually going to take all the stage to win by knockout and i'll say he does knock out alvey in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Cody also picks Oleksiejczuk, noting that Alvey's durability is fading and he has been stopped in recent fights. He mentions that Alvey's only chance is a puncher's chance, but his power hasn't been there. Cody believes Oleksiejczuk will swarm Alvey and finish him early, especially if Alvey goes into 'YOLO mode' for his last fight.

Under 1.5 rounds (+140); fight doesn't go to decision (-170)
"Oleksiejczuk gets the job done... I would say the under one and a half rounds... this will be a violent fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Daniel Levi picks Michał Oleksiejczuk as part of a parlay with Jamahal Hill, citing Sam Alvey's eight-fight winless streak, low output, and declining chin. He expects Oleksiejczuk to walk Alvey down and land big body shots and hooks, likely finishing him in the first round. Levi notes Alvey's counter right hand and guillotine as minor threats but believes Oleksiejczuk's power and pressure will be too much.

Parlayed with Jamahal Hill at -158 to win 2 units; predicts first-round KO
"I think Me Hall's gonna walk this dude down and I think he's gonna come out here land big body shots... knock out Sam Alvey in the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Paul picks Oleksiejczuk but is wary of the -700 price. He notes that Alvey is on a long losing streak and has lost durability. Paul is concerned about Oleksiejczuk's weight cut to 185 and wants to see weigh-ins. He suggests props like Oleksiejczuk by decision (+175) or inside the distance (-140).

Oleksiejczuk by decision (+175) or inside the distance (-140); under 1.5 rounds (+140)
"Oleksiejczuk will be the pick... minus 700 is too wide for me... I want to see the cut."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The MMA Guru picks Michał Oleksiejczuk by first-round TKO via body shot. He notes Sam Alvey's recent decline, being finished by Brendan Allen and Julian Marquez. He praises Oleksiejczuk's toughness and win over Shamil Gamzatov, and believes Alvey has no answer on the feet or on the ground. He also mentions Oleksiejczuk is only 27 and improving.

first round tko via body shot
"i'm going to go first round tko with her body shot for macaulay alex heychuck against sam alvey"
LOSS vs Brendan Allen
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:10 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Feb 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brendan Allen 0 24 of 57 42% 24 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Sam Alvey 1 36 of 54 66% 36 of 54 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brendan Allen 0 18 of 43 41% 18 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Sam Alvey 0 25 of 37 67% 25 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
2 Brendan Allen 0 6 of 14 42% 6 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brendan Allen 24 of 57 42% 20 of 52 2 of 3 2 of 2 24 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 36 of 54 66% 15 of 32 14 of 15 7 of 7 32 of 47 2 of 3 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brendan Allen 18 of 43 41% 16 of 40 1 of 2 1 of 1 18 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 25 of 37 67% 11 of 22 10 of 11 4 of 4 23 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Brendan Allen 6 of 14 42% 4 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 11 of 17 64% 4 of 10 4 of 4 3 of 3 9 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brendan Allen vs. Sam Alvey

Round 1
Due to a late replacement, Alvey (33-16-1, 1 NC; 10-11-1, 1 NC UFC) now finds himself taking on Allen (17-5, 5-2 UFC) in the light heavyweight division. The two men that hail from an area in Wisconsin about a half hour from one another meet in the center of the cage, and referee Chris Tognoni serves as the onlooker. The gloves do not get touched, as Allen would prefer to come out fighting. Allen comes out swinging, and Alvey backs up to the wall. When Allen throws recklessly, Alvey counters him with a quick, clean right hook that shocks Allen. “All-In” shoots in for a takedown, and Alvey sprawls and pushes Allen down to the mat. “Smile’n Sam” tosses Allen away, and he backs away awaiting an advancing Allen. Allen does just that, marching forward to attack, and Alvey is prepared with a counter right hook again. Allen is wary of this strike, and as he pays attention to it, Alvey kicks his lead leg hard. Alvey connects with a one-two, and Allen shakes it off and walks face-first into a sharp punch. Allen does not slow down, kicking up high with a kick. Alvey catches it, sets the leg down and lands a fast one-two again. Allen tries to find a way in, and he reaches out with a jab to the body. As he lets loose with a high body kick, Alvey reaches out with a long left hand across the bow. Alvey’s one-two just misses again, and he lines another up right when Allen takes the forward step to him. Alvey’s range is giving Allen issues, and he again clips Allen with a right. Allen rushes in, gets pushed away and runs forward with a spinning back fist. The strike is blocked by both of Alvey’s arms, and Allen calmly backs away to start hacking at Alvey’s lead leg. Alvey tags Allen once more with a pair of punches, leading Allen to blitz in and pursue a takedown. Allen splits off and rocks Alvey with a right hook. They both throw at the same time, hurting each other, and a follow-up from Allen drops Alvey to a knee against the wall. Alvey gets up, they brawl it out for a few more seconds, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvey
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Alvey
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alvey

Round 2
Allen leads the dance to start off the second round, with a few head kick that are blocked fully. Alvey backs off, and a foot from Allen’s spinning wheel kick grazes his jaw. Alvey blitzes ahead with a surge of punches, and he does this again to give Allen pause. Allen gathers himself and marches Alvey down, and Alvey is there with a heavy leg kick to meet him. “All-In” goes all-in with a body kick, and Alvey takes it like a champ and reaches out with a right. Allen throws up another head kick, and he punches the body and dips back out of the way when Alvey prepares to counter. Alvey charges ahead, and this assault misses the mark. Allen fires off a right to the body and a left to the head, and “Smile’n Sam” is no longer smiling from the strikes.
Alvey falls to his knees in big trouble, and Allen instantly jumps on to take Alvey’s back. Alvey leans towards the fence, only to find that Allen has set up a rear-naked choke without any hooks in. Hooks? “All-In” don't need no stinkin’ hooks. Allen crushes the windpipe with all his might, and Alvey reluctantly surrenders.
The unfortunate winless streak continues for Alvey, who took on a new opponent in a different weight class on a week’s notice.

The Official Result
Brendan Allen def. Sam Alvey R2 2:10 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Angelo picks Brendan Allen but with hesitation. He notes Allen is the better athlete and wrestler, but has chin issues and is coming off a knockout loss. Alvey is on a long winless streak but has power and experience. Angelo thinks Allen should wrestle and take it seriously, but calls it a live bet fight if Allen stands and trades. He picks Allen with the assumption he wrestles.

Live bet suggestion: if Allen stands and trades, bet Alvey.
"phil haus is the pick with the assumption that he's going to wrestle and take this a little more seriously"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Alvey's only path is a knockout. He points out that Allen has better volume and technique, and that Alvey's takedown defense is historically strong but Allen's wrestling may not be good enough to take him down. However, he thinks Allen should win on the feet. He is confident in Allen.

"i am siding with brandon allen"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Daniel Levi leans Brendan Allen but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Allen is taking the fight on four days' notice, moving up to 205 lbs, and has been knocked out in two of his last three. However, he thinks Allen is the better fighter and should have the tools to beat Alvey, who often does nothing for long stretches. Levi suggests a small bet on Alvey at +325 for those looking for a dog, but his pick is Allen.

small half unit or one unit shot on alvey and hope that he can ko a guy that's out of shape in the wrong way class
"i lean brendan because i just think he's a better fighter but if i were to bed aside it'd be a small half unit or one unit shot on alvey"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Lock of the Night picks Allen, citing the massive skill discrepancy. He notes Allen's improved striking and ability to stay at range, similar to the Soriano fight. He warns that Allen should not chase takedowns excessively to avoid gassing. He likes Allen by decision at +165 and the over 2.5 rounds.

Allen by decision +165, over 2.5 rounds even money
"i do like the island side here... allen via decision at plus one that's plus 165 right now that's kind of where i'm leaning"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Paul thinks Allen is the younger, faster, and quicker fighter. He notes that Alvey is on a seven-fight winless streak and hasn't won since 2018. He believes Allen's volume and leg kicks will be key, and that Alvey's only path is a lucky punch. He is confident Allen wins but acknowledges the short notice could affect his gas tank.

"i think brandon allen is the uh younger spryer faster quicker guy he just needs to show up short notice hopefully that doesn't affect the gas tank"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

The MMA Guru picks Brendan Allen (Phil Horse) but expresses concern about his chin, calling it 'genetically bad'. He notes Sam Alvey doesn't have the best chin either, and expects Allen to land better shots and get a first-round KO. However, he is hesitant due to Allen's vulnerability to being wobbled.

KO, round 1, underdog odds mentioned (over 2 to 1)
"i'm gonna go fill horse but he's got such a genetically bad chin it's worrying... i'll say phil horse gets a first round ko"
Decision (split) (27–28, 28–27, 28–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Aug 28, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Wellington Turman 0 68 of 122 55% 114 of 169 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:54
Sam Alvey 0 69 of 119 57% 75 of 126 2 of 9 22% 0 0 2:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Wellington Turman 0 8 of 20 40% 42 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Sam Alvey 0 13 of 16 81% 17 of 20 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:50
2 Wellington Turman 0 26 of 44 59% 32 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Sam Alvey 0 24 of 44 54% 24 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:54
3 Wellington Turman 0 34 of 58 58% 40 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Sam Alvey 0 32 of 59 54% 34 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Wellington Turman 68 of 122 55% 55 of 105 9 of 13 4 of 4 58 of 112 10 of 10 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 69 of 119 57% 36 of 77 19 of 27 14 of 15 63 of 113 6 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Wellington Turman 8 of 20 40% 8 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 13 of 16 81% 4 of 7 5 of 5 4 of 4 10 of 13 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Wellington Turman 26 of 44 59% 17 of 34 5 of 6 4 of 4 21 of 39 5 of 5 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 24 of 44 54% 12 of 29 5 of 8 7 of 7 24 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Wellington Turman 34 of 58 58% 30 of 52 4 of 6 0 of 0 32 of 56 2 of 2 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 32 of 59 54% 20 of 41 9 of 14 3 of 4 29 of 56 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Wellington Turman

Angelo picks Turman, citing his BJJ black belt, slick ground game, and clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes training feedback from Dan Cramer that Turman feels good. He acknowledges Alvey's deceptive power but believes Turman will get the submission.

Angelo might bet the under on rounds because he doesn't think it sees a decision.
"wellington's the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

Cody picks Alvey as a dog, citing his strong takedown defense and power. He notes that Turman has poor takedown accuracy and tends to lose position on the ground. Cody thinks Alvey's veteran savvy and ability to fight 15 minutes will pay off. He is concerned about Alvey's recent losing streak but believes the style matchup favors him.

"i'm gonna have faith that he is going to get it done so this will be a dog play"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Wellington Turman

Jacob picks Turman but is hesitant, noting Turman was knocked out cold two months ago and may be hesitant. He agrees the UFC is feeding Alvey to Turman, but warns Alvey is tough and could win if he eats shots. He stayed away from betting.

"my official pick i guess would be uh would be wellington"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sam Alvey

Lock picks Alvey by KO at +300, believing Alvey's power and durability will be too much for Turman. He notes Turman has shown poor durability, getting knocked out by Andrew Sanchez and Bruno Silva. Lock thinks Alvey's takedown defense and clinch strength will keep the fight standing, where he can land a big shot. He expects Alvey to win minutes only by knockout, not decision.

Alvey by KO +300
"sam alvi by ko at plus 300 is absolutely ridiculous as that's probably his best win condition in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

Paul picks Alvey, surprised himself but noting that Turman is the exact type of fighter Alvey can beat. He highlights Alvey's takedown defense and left hand power. Paul thinks Turman's grappling is overrated and that he tires easily. He expects Alvey to win by knockout or decision.

Alvey inside the distance
"i'm considering a bet on sam alvey here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

The Guru picks Sam Alvey as an underdog, questioning Wellington Turman's chin after two consecutive KO losses and his quick return. He believes Alvey's toughness, cardio, and grappling awareness will allow him to outlast Turman and win a unanimous decision. The Guru dismisses Turman's grappling threat and expects Alvey to display veteran savvy.

Alvey by unanimous decision
"i'm picking sam alvey to get this one done i'll say by unanimous decision"
LOSS vs Julian Marquez
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:07 · UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland · Apr 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Marquez 0 29 of 78 37% 29 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Sam Alvey 1 61 of 100 61% 62 of 101 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Marquez 0 24 of 54 44% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 0 27 of 52 51% 28 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Julian Marquez 0 5 of 24 20% 5 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Sam Alvey 1 34 of 48 70% 34 of 48 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Marquez 29 of 78 37% 21 of 64 4 of 8 4 of 6 28 of 77 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 61 of 100 61% 46 of 78 15 of 22 0 of 0 41 of 75 1 of 1 19 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Marquez 24 of 54 44% 16 of 44 4 of 5 4 of 5 23 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 27 of 52 51% 19 of 38 8 of 14 0 of 0 26 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Julian Marquez 5 of 24 20% 5 of 20 0 of 3 0 of 1 5 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 34 of 48 70% 27 of 40 7 of 8 0 of 0 15 of 24 0 of 0 19 of 24
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Big Brady picks Marquez to win by decision, despite Marquez having a 100% finish rate. He thinks Marquez will pressure and outpoint Alvey, who has not won in a long time and takes a lot of damage. Brady is not confident in the pick and is passing on betting, as he finds the fight potentially boring and the line not appealing. He notes both fighters are durable and the fight likely goes to decision.

"i'm going to take marquez to win by decision which is weird because he has a 100 finish rate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Cody picks Marquez, citing his recovery from ring rust, James Krause's coaching, and Alvey's difficult weight cut to 185. He notes Alvey's low output and lack of offensive wrestling, while Marquez has better timing and power. He expects Marquez to edge it.

Over 2.5 rounds at +100 is favorite play
"i'm hitting this over two and a half at plus one hundred"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 9, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sam Alvey

Daniel Levi picks Sam Alvey, despite acknowledging that Alvey is a long-term fade and the blueprint to beat him is well-known. He is not sold on Julian Marquez, viewing him as an opportunistic finisher who looked horrendous against Maki Pitolo. Levi thinks the fight could be an ugly middleweight scrap that could go either way, so he goes with Alvey for the first time in years.

"I'm going to actually take alvey for the first time in years"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

The host leans Alvey for the value, noting that Marquez's win over Pitolo was a sloppy fight and that Alvey has decent takedown defense and power. However, he acknowledges that Alvey fights on the back foot and hasn't won in five fights. He picks Alvey by decision, but calls the fight a 'slop fest' and advises against betting it.

"i lean alvey in terms of the value here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

Paul leans Alvey, noting his durability and ability to lull opponents into slow fights. He wants to see weigh-ins but thinks Alvey's counter-punching and experience could be factors. He is not confident due to Alvey's losing streak and weight cut.

"it would be dogger pass i would take smile and sam"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

The MMA Guru picks Julian Marquez by first-round KO, despite calling Marquez 'so bad' and 'sloppy'. He notes Marquez has big power and a great chin, while Sam Alvey is moving down to middleweight after being knocked out previously. He thinks Marquez will lose some grappling exchanges early but then land a big right hand to finish Alvey. He expects Alvey to be 'frowning' after the loss.

first round knockout
"i see a first round ko for julian marquez"
LOSS vs Da Woon Jung
Draw (split) (29–28, 28–29, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Da Woon Jung 1 56 of 126 44% 61 of 133 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:25
Sam Alvey 0 59 of 166 35% 69 of 177 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Da Woon Jung 0 20 of 42 47% 20 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Sam Alvey 0 22 of 64 34% 27 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Da Woon Jung 0 19 of 49 38% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 0 23 of 60 38% 23 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Da Woon Jung 1 17 of 35 48% 22 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:09
Sam Alvey 0 14 of 42 33% 19 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Da Woon Jung 56 of 126 44% 43 of 108 5 of 10 8 of 8 46 of 114 6 of 8 4 of 4
Sam Alvey 59 of 166 35% 38 of 140 3 of 8 18 of 18 56 of 162 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Da Woon Jung 20 of 42 47% 13 of 35 4 of 4 3 of 3 19 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 22 of 64 34% 14 of 53 1 of 4 7 of 7 21 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Da Woon Jung 19 of 49 38% 13 of 39 1 of 5 5 of 5 19 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 23 of 60 38% 14 of 50 2 of 3 7 of 7 23 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Da Woon Jung 17 of 35 48% 17 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 24 5 of 7 4 of 4
Sam Alvey 14 of 42 33% 10 of 37 0 of 1 4 of 4 12 of 39 1 of 2 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Big Brady is confident in Da Woon Jung, citing his high output (6.59 significant strikes per minute) compared to Alvey's low volume. He notes Jung's good chin and cardio, and struggles to see a path to victory for Alvey. He predicts a first-round knockout, though he acknowledges a decision is possible.

first round knockout
"give me dongjong i'm going to predict a give me a first round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Daniel Levi picks Da Woon Jung, citing his durability, discipline, and jab. He notes that Alvey is on the decline and has been figured out, with his only recent knockout being against a low-level opponent. Levi believes Jung will stay technical, pick Alvey apart with the jab, and avoid the counter right hook, likely winning by early knockout.

Jung opened -600 and has been bet down to -330; Alvey's chin isn't the same at 205; Jung will win early, possibly first round
"i'm going with dawun jung to get the biggest win of his career"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

The host leans toward Da Woon Jung, noting that Jung is younger, more aggressive, and has better output. He questions Sam Alvey's durability and recent form, but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline at -370. He suggests Jung by knockout as a prop.

Jung by knockout, over 1.5 rounds
"i'll probably lean with jung here as a prediction uh in terms of betting yeah i'm not i'm not parlaying him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

The MMA Guru picks Da Woon Jung to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Jung is more technical and controlled than Ryan Spann (who struggled with Alvey), sets up shots with feints, and is coming off a KO win over Mike Rodriguez. He criticizes Alvey for losing too many times and being 34 years old.

first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with doubt on you and getting it done i reckon you'll tko sam alvey"
LOSS vs Ryan Spann
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 51 of 115 44% 52 of 116 2 of 7 28% 1 0 3:01
Sam Alvey 0 57 of 108 52% 103 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 9 of 27 33% 9 of 27 2 of 4 50% 1 0 2:01
Sam Alvey 0 17 of 25 68% 57 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ryan Spann 0 22 of 39 56% 23 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Sam Alvey 0 15 of 39 38% 17 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ryan Spann 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
Sam Alvey 0 25 of 44 56% 29 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 51 of 115 44% 41 of 102 10 of 13 0 of 0 48 of 109 3 of 6 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 57 of 108 52% 40 of 90 3 of 3 14 of 15 46 of 94 11 of 14 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 9 of 27 33% 7 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 24 1 of 3 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 17 of 25 68% 10 of 18 2 of 2 5 of 5 13 of 20 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Ryan Spann 22 of 39 56% 18 of 32 4 of 7 0 of 0 22 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 15 of 39 38% 9 of 32 0 of 0 6 of 7 14 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Ryan Spann 20 of 49 40% 16 of 45 4 of 4 0 of 0 18 of 46 2 of 3 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 25 of 44 56% 21 of 40 1 of 1 3 of 3 19 of 37 6 of 7 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ryan Spann vs. Sam Alvey

Round 1
Welcome back, everyone. It’s been a rough few months, and the last 24 hours have been especially rocky, but fights are officially back on the menu. We begin this 11-fight odyssey in the light heavyweight division, as rising Fortis MMA star Spann (17-5, 3-0 UFC) takes on the effervescent Alvey (33-13, 1 NC; 10-8 UFC). An unmasked Dan Miragliotta draws the first referee assignment of the evening, and with a touch of gloves, it’s on with the show! Spann begins to walk Alvey down, and starts out with a right hand and then another thudding right before ducking into a double. Snatching up the legs, Spann drags his man down; Alvey gets back to his feet and works a few hammerfists to irritate Spann. Switching to a single, Spann drops low and hits it, and Alvey flirts with grabbing the fence while he is trying to get back up. As Alvey returns to his feet, Spann sets up a standing arm-triangle choke, allowing Alvey to pepper him with a few short right hands to the torso. Spann tightens up and tries to wrench Alvey down, but Alvey resists and he does not look to be in a good position. Alvey’s head is starting to change colors, and he looks distressed but does not seem to want to fight it off. Spann looks to rip him down to the canvas, and Alvey calmly pops his head out and punches his way free. “Superman” keeps Alvey against the fence, and Alvey scores with a right hand to back off his opponent. He lands another, and Spann backpedals for a moment, before returning to the pressure. Alvey wings a few punches, and Spann throws so hard that he stumbles across the cage before regaining his composure. An inadvertent low kick catches Spann on the cup, and the action does not slow for long. Spann makes him pay for it with a heavy right hand, and Alvey shakes it off before returning fire with a right hook. The Fortis MMA fighter again throws himself off balance with a looping punch, allowing Alvey to kick his legs and send him off-balance. Spann drops down for a single, and takes a knee on the way in. Right before the round ends, Alvey sneaks in a knee and a solid elbow up top, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Spann

Round 2
Between rounds, Spann seems concerned that is taking damage from a few of Alvey’s low calf kicks. To return some damage, Spann fires a head kick up top to start the round. It delivers a serious impact even though Alvey blocks it, but Spann uses the forward movement to go after a takedown. Alvey stands him up and they clinch and break apart, allowing Alvey to catch him with a solid left hand on the way out. Spann starts to talk to his corner as the fight progresses, and Alvey continues to pepper that lead calf with kicks that continue to get Spann’s attention. Spann’s looping punches are not catching Alvey flush, and Alvey’s counters fall short. The two swing heavy leather as they crash together, and Alvey appears to get the better of the exchange as they separate. Alvey keeps his back close to the fence, but times a stiff left hand and follows it with a right hook to nail “Superman” on the chin. Spann walks through it, and throws a heavy body kick that makes Alvey circle away. Sensing the success of that kick, Spann throws a few more, and scores a hard right while Alvey tries to defend that kick. Another low kick scores for Alvey, frustrating Spann to throw all he has into a short right hook that falls shy of the mark, and Alvey dances away. Spann tags him with an overhand left after a front kick, but Alvey is unfazed. Spann charges forward to land another few punches, ending the combination with a vicious left hook. The punches for Spann are finding their mark repeatedly, although his wildness is making him fall across the cage as Alvey avoids most of the damage. “Smile’n Sam” tries to throw a spinning wheel kick of sorts, but he is several feet away, so Spann simply stands there to admire the attempt as the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Alvey

Round 3
The final frame begins with Spann walking forward into a clinch. Alvey tries to tie him up with a Thai clinch, although Spann breaks free and clips him on the way out. Another body kick scores for Spann, and Alvey is protesting something but it is unclear what he is concerned about. The action does not stop, so Spann walks forward as he continues to talk to his coaches. Coming short with a few long punches, Spann misses but Alvey does not make him pay for it. They start taking turns throwing at each other. Suddenly, Spann whips a high kick and cracks Alvey, and Alvey is rocked. They start swinging with reckless abandon, and the chin of Alvey holds up as he shakes out the cobwebs. After trading furious leather, they separate, allowing Spann to connect with a few more body kicks. Alvey lands a few solid lefts, but Spann throws back harder and more often, blasting Alvey on the jaw. Despite the powerful shots, “Smile’n” keeps going, and Spann looks to be a little tired now. The punches and kicks for Spann are much slower than before, allowing Alvey to stick and move. Alvey goes up with his own head kick, and Spann did not like that. A huge shot from Alvey hurts Spann, and Spann shoots for a desperation takedown. Alvey catches him and sets up a 10-finger guillotine choke, but Spann muscles his way back to his feet. Alvey clips Spann again, and again, with nasty left hands as Spann is in a bad way. Spann falls against the cage, and Alvey pours it on in the waning seconds. The Team Quest fighter puts everything he has left to force a stoppage, but time expires before he can get it. What a wild end to that round, and the first fight is now in the hands of the judges. Although the post-fight interview for Joe Rogan was reportedly off the table for this event, the winner of this fight still gets one from a maskless, gloveless Rogan.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvey (29-28 Spann)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alvey (29-28 Spann)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Alvey (29-28 Alvey)

The Official Result
Ryan Spann def. Sam Alvey via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann to dominate Sam Alvey, expecting a clear decision victory. He notes Spann's reach advantage and submission threat, but believes Alvey's chin will hold up, preventing a knockout. He mentions Spann is a minus 380 favorite and suggests using him in parlays.

Spann by decision; Spann minus 380; parlay suggestion
"I think Span's going to dominate. Um I think he is going to dominate and win this fight, but I just think Alvie's chin is going to hold up."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Daniel Levi picks Ryan Spann, stating he has too much physically for Alvey and is the rightful favorite. He notes Spann's improvement, nasty guillotine, and physical tools (6'5", 82-inch reach). Levi thinks Alvey hasn't evolved and is deteriorating, and that Spann should capitalize on Alvey's declining chin.

"I think he's got too much for Sam in terms of the physical Department I think the line might be a little wide but I am going with Ryan span here to get a fourth win in a row"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Matt thinks the line at -380 is too wide and prefers a closer price around -250. He notes Spann's potential and crisp 1-2 but worries about his gas tank and Sam Alvey's durability and possible progression. He sees the under 2.5 rounds as the best bet and only includes Spann in a Hail Mary parlay.

under 2.5 rounds (-155), fight doesn't go to decision (-195), Hail Mary parlay piece
"I like Spanier not confident enough to make him like a main bet maybe a parlay piece like a Hail Mary parlay piece"
LOSS vs Klidson Abreu
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Jul 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Klidson Abreu 0 28 of 77 36% 67 of 117 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:33
Sam Alvey 0 36 of 89 40% 61 of 115 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Klidson Abreu 0 6 of 21 28% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
Sam Alvey 0 13 of 25 52% 27 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
2 Klidson Abreu 0 10 of 25 40% 22 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:13
Sam Alvey 0 9 of 18 50% 17 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
3 Klidson Abreu 0 12 of 31 38% 27 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Sam Alvey 0 14 of 46 30% 17 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Klidson Abreu 28 of 77 36% 12 of 53 5 of 12 11 of 12 21 of 69 4 of 4 3 of 4
Sam Alvey 36 of 89 40% 17 of 60 4 of 13 15 of 16 35 of 85 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Klidson Abreu 6 of 21 28% 2 of 16 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 13 of 25 52% 7 of 16 4 of 6 2 of 3 12 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Klidson Abreu 10 of 25 40% 4 of 18 3 of 4 3 of 3 6 of 20 1 of 1 3 of 4
Sam Alvey 9 of 18 50% 4 of 11 0 of 2 5 of 5 9 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Klidson Abreu 12 of 31 38% 6 of 19 2 of 8 4 of 4 10 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 14 of 46 30% 6 of 33 0 of 5 8 of 8 14 of 43 0 of 3 0 of 0
LOSS vs Jimmy Crute
TKO (punches) R1 2:49 · UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · Feb 10, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jimmy Crute 1 14 of 32 43% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Sam Alvey 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jimmy Crute 1 14 of 32 43% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Sam Alvey 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jimmy Crute 14 of 32 43% 7 of 23 2 of 3 5 of 6 9 of 23 0 of 0 5 of 9
Sam Alvey 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jimmy Crute 14 of 32 43% 7 of 23 2 of 3 5 of 6 9 of 23 0 of 0 5 of 9
Sam Alvey 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marcin Prachnio - Fight History
LOSS vs Jimmy Crute
Submission R1 4:42 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jimmy Crute 0 5 of 18 27% 11 of 27 3 of 6 50% 2 0 2:18
Marcin Prachnio 0 21 of 36 58% 37 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jimmy Crute 0 5 of 18 27% 11 of 27 3 of 6 50% 2 0 2:18
Marcin Prachnio 0 21 of 36 58% 37 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jimmy Crute 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marcin Prachnio 21 of 36 58% 7 of 21 9 of 10 5 of 5 13 of 28 6 of 6 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jimmy Crute 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marcin Prachnio 21 of 36 58% 7 of 21 9 of 10 5 of 5 13 of 28 6 of 6 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Angelo picks Jimmy Crute despite his long winless streak, because Marcin Prachnio has poor ground game and Crute is a good wrestler. He notes Crute's recent retirement and poor mindset, but believes the gap on the ground is enough for Crute to win. He is hesitant due to Crute's mental state.

"I'm going to pick Jimmy here. The gap on the ground is bigger than the gap on the feet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Big Brady believes Jimmy Crute should dominate Marcin Prachnio, citing Crute's easier UFC fight to date. He notes Prachnio's poor cardio, no ground game, and chin issues. He predicts Crute wins by first-round submission, though he acknowledges Crute's past bad fight IQ.

Crute by first round submission
"I think Croo is going to win this fight. I'll take Croo to win this fight by first round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

The host acknowledges Crute is flaky and inconsistent, and Prachnio is capable of pulling off the upset. However, he thinks Crute will utilize his aggressiveness, land a big shot, and follow up with a submission. The pick is hesitant due to Crute's inconsistency.

submission
"I think Groot will utilize his aggressiveness, land a big shot on Prao to drop him and then follow up with the submission to get the victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio over Jimmy Crute, despite some hesitation. He criticizes Crute's footwork, saying he fights like he's stepping on Legos, and notes that Crute has problems with low kicks, as seen against Anthony Smith. Prachnio is described as a slick striker with good low kicks, and the Guru believes he will not get outmuscled on the ground. However, he acknowledges the possibility of Crute submitting him, but ultimately goes with Prachnio based on striking superiority.

"I'm going with Martin Patchio, man."
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:12 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Modestas Bukauskas 0 38 of 76 50% 56 of 101 2 of 2 100% 1 0 5:31
Marcin Prachnio 0 70 of 139 50% 120 of 200 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Modestas Bukauskas 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Marcin Prachnio 0 26 of 61 42% 35 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Modestas Bukauskas 0 17 of 31 54% 21 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:19
Marcin Prachnio 0 34 of 58 58% 67 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Modestas Bukauskas 0 2 of 6 33% 16 of 25 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:48
Marcin Prachnio 0 10 of 20 50% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Modestas Bukauskas 38 of 76 50% 28 of 64 7 of 9 3 of 3 29 of 62 3 of 7 6 of 7
Marcin Prachnio 70 of 139 50% 19 of 74 31 of 44 20 of 21 58 of 123 12 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Modestas Bukauskas 19 of 39 48% 12 of 31 5 of 6 2 of 2 18 of 36 1 of 3 0 of 0
Marcin Prachnio 26 of 61 42% 2 of 29 10 of 17 14 of 15 25 of 59 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Modestas Bukauskas 17 of 31 54% 14 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 1 11 of 22 2 of 4 4 of 5
Marcin Prachnio 34 of 58 58% 8 of 26 20 of 26 6 of 6 23 of 44 11 of 14 0 of 0
3 Modestas Bukauskas 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
Marcin Prachnio 10 of 20 50% 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-155), Prachnio (+130)

Round 1
When the dust settles between these light heavyweights, one of them will reach the .500 mark on their UFC ledger while the other will fall two wins beneath it. Bukauskas (15-6, 3-4 UFC) is trying to build up his resume on his second stint with the promotion, while Prachnio (17-7, 4-5 UFC) wants to disappoint home fans by beating the fighter training in England. With similar finish rates of 73% and 71%, respectively, they might need to involve referee Marc Goddard before the final horn. The 205ers touch ‘em up, and Prachnio introduces himself with a trio of leg kicks. Bukauskas swings back with a looping right hand, but his foe is out of range. Prachnio sweeps the leg, or at least tries to, but his second kick nearly buckles Bukauskas’ knee on the inside. Bukauskas times a hard left hand when Prachnio sells out on a low kick, and he leans back to watch a side kick to the face come up short. Prachnio continues working the front leg no matter the stance, and he pushes off to disallow Bukauskas from reaching him with two hooks. Bukauskas sits down on a left hand, getting Prachnio’s attention, and Prachnio gathers himself and keeps on chopping down the tree. Bukauskas loops a left around the guard, and he kicks a ducking Prachnio in the face. They clash together, and Prachnio stumbles before recovering. Prachnio tries to land a spinning wheel kick that ends up bouncing off the guard, and he peppers the front leg and thigh with kicks. Prachnio winds up and drills Bukauskas with a massive right hand, and Bukauskas eats it like a bowl of kugelis. Prachnio races forward throwing a kick, and Bukauskas grabs hold of him and turns him to the fencing. On the break, the Lithuanian dings Prachnio with a spinning elbow, but Prachnio appears unconcerned. Bukauskas races forward throwing hands, and a right hand careens off the temple and wobbles Prachnio. Bukauskas unleashes a salvo of vicious punches, but Prachnio is able to rebound off the fenced and get his footing. Prachnio chips at the front leg, and he lumbers forward throwing inaccurate punches. Bukauskas switches stances frequently, and he beans Prachnio with a huge right hand. Prachnio goes after another spinning wheel kick that is a long way away, and Bukauskas stays composed until he throws a bit too hard, and gets caught with a counter on the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas

Round 2
The two touch gloves and go right into a brawl, winging power hooks with no concern of defense. They backpedal momentarily, and Prachnio scores a leg kick and connects with an overhand right. Prachnio kicks low a few times before going high, and Bukauskas blocks the head kick but eats a body kick that follows. Prachnio gets into range and is met with a pair of hooks, and he takes a few steps back to kick the front leg. Prachnio lunges and gets countered, but he ends with a body kick. The low kicks of the Polish fighter are starting to compromise Bukauskas, but Prachnio decides to throw caution to the wind and whiff with a comical windmilling right hand that is feet off the mark. Prachnio takes a moment to stop fighting so recklessly, and Bukauskas uses the moment to belt Prachnio with a handful of punches that rock Prachnio. In the ensuing melee, Bukauskas absorbs a flush head kick in close range and gets his bell rung, and he has no choice but to back off as he was in trouble too. Both fighters wobbled and hurt, they end up clinching, with Bukauskas pressing Prachnio against the wire. Bukauskas drops to his knees for a takedown, and Prachnio stands him up and knees him in the gut to break. Prachnio doubles up on the knee when he gets in close, and Bukauskas backs off and smacks him with a left hand. A body lock takedown from Bukauskas succeeds in planting Prachnio on his back, and Prachnio grabs hold of the fence for several seconds and does not let it go as Goddard watches on without saying anything. Bukauskas moves to half guard, and Prachnio lets go so he can block his face but ultimately takes several elbows off the dome. Bukauskas walks right into side control and threatens briefly with a kimura, but lets it go so he can knee Prachnio in the side and elbow him as well. Prachnio briefly drags Bukauskas back to his guard, but Bukauskas easily gest back to half guard. Prachnio wall-walks to get back up, and they dirty box in the clinch until the violent round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prachnio
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas

Round 3
Gloves are touched, and fists immediately fly. Prachnio elects to go out swinging, and he pummels the Lithuanian with a flurry of fierce punches that knock him back to the fencing. Bukauskas takes advantage of Prachnio’s momentum and hits a body lock trip to redeposit Prachnio flat on his back. Bukauskas moves to half guard to control his opponent, and he lands short shots to stay busy. Goddard warns Prachnio for punches that wrap around to the back of the head, and Bukauskas ignores them while maintaining controlling posture. Goddard asks for more work, and Bukauskas keeps on slowly working from above while not attempting many fight-ending strikes.
Bukauskas sits up to drive two elbows home before leaning down with an arm-triangle choke position. Bukauskas lowers himself flat to smother his opponent while clutching the submission grip tight, and he is on the wrong side but does not seem to care. Bukauskas remains flat and crushes down on his adversary, and even out of position he squeezes with all his might. Prachnio cannot hang on any longer, and he taps out.
Prachnio thinks about standing up after the fight's conclusion, but he does not have the energy to do it. Meanwhile, the victorious Lithuanian hits a back flip to show he still has something left in the tank.

The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Marcin Prachnio R3 3:12 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, citing his youth and well-roundedness. He notes that Prachnio has power but is chinny and can be knockout or bust. Angelo expects Bukauskas to win and hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line to bet on.

hoping for over 1.5 rounds line
"mcus should win he's going to be the pick here he's much younger he's more well-rounded"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Cody picks Marcin Prachnio, citing his volume striking and improved cardio. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas has low output and has looked unimpressive in his UFC return, with close fights against lower-level competition. Cody believes Prachnio's pressure and output will overwhelm Bukauskas, and that he can win by decision or even knockout.

"I'm just GNA ride up on prne out here can't make you can't have any real type of Faith but at some point you got to bite the bullet and take some people that your gut tells you to go …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Daniel thinks Marcin Prachnio has a higher work rate and will outwork Modestas Bukauskas. He notes both have poor chins but Prachnio pushes a higher pace. He picks the underdog Prachnio.

"just give me the guy with the higher work rate and that's uh Marine prel so and he's the underdog so I'll pick him"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Paul leans towards Prachnio, noting that Bukauskas has low volume and no real power. He believes Prachnio's volume advantage (5.61 significant strikes per minute vs 3.28) will be key, and that the fight likely goes to a decision where Prachnio edges it. However, he is not fully confident and may pass on betting.

"I guess Marine will be the pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio as an underdog, citing Prachnio's better technical striking and leg-kicking ability. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas lacks finishing potential and a strong grappling game, often letting fights go to split decisions. Prachnio is known for chewing up opponents' legs, and Bukauskas has a history of leg injuries. The Guru also questions Bukauskas's training camp with heavyweights, suggesting it may not be ideal for this matchup.

"I can't help but pick a Marchin prao Underdog you guys know how I feel about Marchin prao being an underdog which he normally is in every one of his fights um I'm going to pick him to win this …"
WIN vs Devin Clark
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Prachnio 0 53 of 127 41% 53 of 127 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:14
Devin Clark 0 101 of 189 53% 112 of 204 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Prachnio 0 11 of 29 37% 11 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Devin Clark 0 23 of 47 48% 27 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Marcin Prachnio 0 19 of 36 52% 19 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Devin Clark 0 30 of 60 50% 32 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Marcin Prachnio 0 23 of 62 37% 23 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Devin Clark 0 48 of 82 58% 53 of 89 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Prachnio 53 of 127 41% 36 of 106 13 of 16 4 of 5 49 of 120 4 of 7 0 of 0
Devin Clark 101 of 189 53% 42 of 113 37 of 51 22 of 25 78 of 156 23 of 33 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Prachnio 11 of 29 37% 7 of 24 2 of 3 2 of 2 11 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0
Devin Clark 23 of 47 48% 8 of 28 7 of 9 8 of 10 21 of 42 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Marcin Prachnio 19 of 36 52% 13 of 29 5 of 6 1 of 1 17 of 34 2 of 2 0 of 0
Devin Clark 30 of 60 50% 9 of 33 9 of 15 12 of 12 26 of 52 4 of 8 0 of 0
3 Marcin Prachnio 23 of 62 37% 16 of 53 6 of 7 1 of 2 21 of 58 2 of 4 0 of 0
Devin Clark 48 of 82 58% 25 of 52 21 of 27 2 of 3 31 of 62 17 of 20 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Devin Clark

Angelo believes Devin Clark can pressure forward, avoid Prachnio's power, get takedowns, and grind out a win. He notes Clark's solid grappling and footwork, and that Prachnio has a questionable chin. He thinks Clark should win, but the -190 odds are a bit rich; he would prefer Clark at -150. He will monitor the line movement.

"Devin Clark should win this fight pretty confident in him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Devin Clark

Big Brady hesitantly picks Devin Clark to win by decision. He notes that Clark has a clear path to victory through wrestling, as Prachnio has terrible takedown defense and ground game. However, he is not confident because Clark has poor cardio and has been finished often, and Prachnio's fights have had weird results.

"I'm going to pick him here just because I feel like he has such a clear path to Victory with the wrestling"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Cody picks Prachnio as a dog, noting Clark's cardio issues and tendency to fade. Prachnio has power and has shown he can survive early takedowns and come back. Cody thinks if Clark doesn't finish early, Prachnio can knock him out in the later rounds. He suggests a prop on Prachnio by KO in round 3 at long odds.

Prachnio by KO round 3 (+2400)
"prne round three 20 to one I mean he's probably gonna I don't think he has any submission skills whatsoever so what's him by KO round three 24 24 that would be that would be the move"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Devin Clark

Clark should be able to use his clinch and grappling to push Prachnio against the cage and drag him to the mat. Prachnio has questionable takedown defense and durability. However, Clark is inconsistent and has a history of fumbling fights he's winning. The line at -210 is too wide for someone as flimsy as Clark, but he should still win by decision.

"I'll still take him to win this fight I still think he wins by decision but it is a closer fight in my opinion than the odds indicate"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Paul also picks Prachnio, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He notes Clark's wrestling advantage but thinks Prachnio can survive and find a knockout. Paul mentions that Clark has been knocked out before and that Prachnio has power. He is tempted by the dog price and the prop.

Prachnio by KO round 3
"I'm with you pretty clear dogger pass and I mean if you're telling me to to be sprinkling plus 2400s I mean yeah let's go baby"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio as an underdog after initially leaning toward Devin Clark. He notes that Clark has taken a lot of damage and lacks one-punch KO power or submission threat. He believes Prachnio can out-damage Clark on the feet with better striking skill. He acknowledges the pick is risky but thinks Prachnio is a lot better than Clark in terms of before a finish.

"I'm going to go marching Prat as an underdog... I think prano can outdamage him on the feet with a better striking skill."
LOSS vs Vitor Petrino
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:42 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 44 of 81 54% 72 of 111 4 of 6 66% 2 0 8:39
Marcin Prachnio 0 55 of 88 62% 147 of 185 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 16 of 33 48% 20 of 37 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:21
Marcin Prachnio 0 32 of 44 72% 66 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Vitor Petrino 0 11 of 15 73% 30 of 35 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:38
Marcin Prachnio 0 2 of 5 40% 56 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Vitor Petrino 0 17 of 33 51% 22 of 39 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:40
Marcin Prachnio 0 21 of 39 53% 25 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 44 of 81 54% 32 of 68 9 of 10 3 of 3 24 of 58 1 of 1 19 of 22
Marcin Prachnio 55 of 88 62% 25 of 54 21 of 25 9 of 9 41 of 73 14 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 16 of 33 48% 9 of 26 6 of 6 1 of 1 11 of 25 1 of 1 4 of 7
Marcin Prachnio 32 of 44 72% 12 of 23 14 of 15 6 of 6 21 of 32 11 of 12 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 11 of 15 73% 10 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 11
Marcin Prachnio 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 17 of 33 51% 13 of 28 2 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 29 0 of 0 4 of 4
Marcin Prachnio 21 of 39 53% 12 of 27 6 of 9 3 of 3 18 of 36 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino but warns against including him in parlays, citing the recent trend of undefeated prospects losing. He notes Petrino's power and offensive wrestling but poor takedown defense. Prachnio has veteran savvy and power, but his chin is questionable. He sees Petrino having multiple ways to win but lacks confidence.

No bets yet, waiting for props
"Vitor Petrino is the pick no bets yet but we'll see when these props drop"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by first-round knockout. He was impressed by Petrino's wrestling in his last fight, taking down Anton Turkalj seven times. He notes that Prachnio has been knocked out by lesser strikers and has poor durability. He believes Petrino can knock him out on the feet or take him down and finish him. He mentions that Prachnio's path to victory is leg kicks and running away, but he doesn't think the fight goes to decision.

first round knockout
"I'll say he knocks him out on the very first round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Petrino, citing his power and youth. He notes Prachnio has a questionable chin and has been knocked out early in the UFC. He thinks Petrino will crack him early. He says there's no value at -300 but Petrino should win.

Petrino by KO/TKO, under 1.5 rounds
"Petrino will be the pick but minus 300 there's really nothing there for me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino because he is too violent for Prachnio, who has become a safe fighter after being knocked out. Petrino's reckless pressure and durability will force Prachnio out of his comfort zone. However, Prachnio could win if he takes Petrino down or lands a switch kick, but Petrino's ability to keep coming makes him the pick.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I just think he's too violent for Prochnio."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Levi picks Petrino, citing his knockout power and aggressive style. He notes that Prachnio has a questionable chin, having been knocked out three times in the UFC. Levi acknowledges Petrino's cardio concerns due to his high-energy approach but believes he will expose Prachnio's chin early. He is not interested in betting at minus-300 but picks Petrino to win.

"I think Vitor is going to be the guy that goes back and exposes that chin of Marcin pratch."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

James believes Petrino has all the advantages: youth, power, physicality, durability, and strength. He thinks Prachnio may be the better technical mixed martial artist, but Petrino's raw attributes will overwhelm him. He predicts a first-round knockout, as he expects Petrino to land on Prachnio's chin and finish the fight.

Vitor Petrino wins by KO in round 1; Vitor Petrino inside the distance
"I think petrino's gonna Land one on pretnia's chin and I think it's going to be night night"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino has big knockout power and durability, and he can cut off the cage to prevent Prachnio from using his karate style. Prachnio is not a good enough grappler to hold Petrino down, and Petrino will eventually land a knockout, likely early in the fight.

round 1 knockout
"give me Vitor Petrino by knockout I actually think it comes pretty early as well let's call it round one."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul picks Petrino, noting his power and wrestling. He thinks Prachnio has only beaten low-level competition and will be overwhelmed. He mentions Petrino's cardio looked good in his last fight. He expects a finish or a clear decision.

Petrino by KO/TKO or decision
"I think Petrino mixes in those takedowns if he doesn't melt him with a big right hand"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino to win by KO, citing Prachnio's poor chin and lack of finishing potential. He notes Prachnio was KO'd by Sam Alvey and others, while Petrino is a physical freak with dangerous striking. He acknowledges Petrino's grappling issues but believes his finishing power is decisive.

wins by KO
"I'm gonna go with him getting this one done by KO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane picks Petrino because he is a bully and brawler who doesn't gas easily and has a great chin. Prachnio is a technical karate fighter who has become safe after being knocked out, and Petrino's relentless pressure and power should overwhelm him. However, Petrino is a mess and could be taken down or knocked out, but his violence is likely too much for Prachnio.

Petrino opened at -263, currently -278; Prachnio opened at +199, currently +238. Zane says odds should not get wider.
"I got to pick a guy like Patrino light heavyweight. It's just the right division for him for that kind of fight."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Feb 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Prachnio 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 33 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
William Knight 0 79 of 144 54% 79 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Prachnio 0 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
William Knight 0 26 of 48 54% 26 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marcin Prachnio 0 1 of 10 10% 1 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
William Knight 0 29 of 49 59% 29 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marcin Prachnio 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
William Knight 0 24 of 47 51% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Prachnio 8 of 33 24% 0 of 13 2 of 8 6 of 12 8 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
William Knight 79 of 144 54% 9 of 36 7 of 25 63 of 83 79 of 144 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Prachnio 3 of 10 30% 0 of 3 2 of 3 1 of 4 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
William Knight 26 of 48 54% 1 of 10 3 of 11 22 of 27 26 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marcin Prachnio 1 of 10 10% 0 of 5 0 of 3 1 of 2 1 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
William Knight 29 of 49 59% 5 of 12 2 of 8 22 of 29 29 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marcin Prachnio 4 of 13 30% 0 of 5 0 of 2 4 of 6 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
William Knight 24 of 47 51% 3 of 14 2 of 6 19 of 27 24 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Angelo has a one-unit bet on Prachnio but expresses buyer's remorse. He thinks Prachnio is the better technical fighter with a karate background, but his chin is a concern. Angelo notes William Knight is a powerful, fast bodybuilder-type who can wrestle, but is inconsistent and missed weight by 12 pounds. He believes Prachnio should win if he doesn't get caught, but admits the bet is risky.

One-unit moneyline bet on Prachnio. Also mentions William Knight by KO +185 and Prachnio by KO +250, and Knight by submission +1200.
"I got one unit on marcine prach now... it is the riskiest conservative Ange."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
William Knight

Big Brady favors Knight because of his wrestling path, as Prachnio has poor takedown defense (around 50%) and terrible cardio, gassing out by six minutes in his last fight. He thinks Knight can take him down, wear on him, and get a second-round knockout. He notes that both have durability issues, but Knight's power and cardio give him the edge.

Knight by KO, round 2
"I gotta go William not here and the reason being I think he has a path to Victory here and that path to Victory he's going to be to wrestle"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Cody picks Prachnio, noting William Knight has struggled with weight cuts and is now moving back to 205 after a failed heavyweight stint. He details Knight's history of botched weight cuts and poor performances when depleted. He says Prachnio has volume and cardio advantages, and even if Knight gets takedowns, he won't do enough with them. He calls it an even money fight but likes Prachnio as the betting underdog.

Cody notes Prachnio is technically the betting underdog. He mentions Knight's weight issues: came in at 218 for a 205 fight, then 251 at heavyweight.
"It's pretty much an even money fight but like ever so slightly marcine praknow is technically the betting Underdog and so uh talker pass baby sign me up with Marcin pracneo."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Knight's counter punching is technically poor and he cannot put together combinations. Prachnio will get hurt but is unlikely to be finished. Knight's lack of follow-up means Prachnio can recover and win rounds.

"Yeah, we're agreed picking Prochno it just always also like... Light heavyweight is just so that division. Lots of power, not a lot of durability."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
William Knight

Jacob picks William Knight, citing his explosiveness and power as a perfect matchup against Prachnio's karate style. He thinks once Knight starts landing, Prachnio will shell up against the fence and get finished. Jacob notes Knight's aggression and ability to pounce, and believes Prachnio's chin is weak. He also mentions the under 1.5 rounds feels like a trap but thinks Knight will get the KO.

"I'm gonna go William Knight in this match I think it's a good matchup for his explosiveness."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Prachnio's kick-heavy, movement-based style should keep him safe from Knight's early power. Knight fades after round one and has poor cardio. Prachnio can use his range and footwork to win a decision, though his chin is a concern. Live betting after round one is suggested.

over 1.5 rounds; Prachnio wins by decision
"I like the over one and a half as well... I think that ultimately we'll see Prachnio... picking up a decision Victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Paul picks Prachnio, saying he struggles to get to William Knight. He notes Knight's volume isn't there and he's not sure about his grappling. He says Prachnio should box him up at range with volume as long as he stays upright. He acknowledges Knight can land a bomb, but thinks more often than not Prachnio wins. He says he's not sure if he'll bet it but is picking Prachnio.

Paul mentions the line moved from Prachnio being a slight favorite to money coming in on Knight. He says he'll take the ever-so-slight dog.
"I'll take the ever so slight dog and marcine pracneo just you know keep your chin in one piece."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
William Knight

The MMA Guru picks William Knight, but is undecided. He acknowledges Marcin Prachnio is not bad and beat Khalil Rountree, but notes Prachnio's chin is suspect, having been finished three times in his last six fights by KO. He believes Knight will find that chin and get a KO, either by dominant position or big shot on the feet, but emphasizes Knight must be aggressive.

KO
"I'm gonna go with William Knight Finding that chin at some point William Knight will find that chin and Martin pratch Neo's chin is not the best"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Zane picks Prachnio because he is a better striker and more determined than Knight. Knight has power but lacks form and follow-up, and he turns into a counter puncher when pressured. Prachnio takes available targets and will win rounds. Knight may hurt him but likely won't finish, and Prachnio's improved durability should see him through.

Prachnio opened -110, now -103; Knight opened -110, now -119. Zane says 'don't bet on this' and 'don't watch this card.'
"Yeah, we're agreed picking Prochno it just always also like... Light heavyweight is just so that division. Lots of power, not a lot of durability."
LOSS vs Philipe Lins
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Apr 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Philipe Lins 0 74 of 117 63% 116 of 159 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:53
Marcin Prachnio 0 64 of 110 58% 96 of 142 4 of 11 36% 0 0 5:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Philipe Lins 0 30 of 42 71% 43 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Marcin Prachnio 0 14 of 27 51% 15 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:00
2 Philipe Lins 0 28 of 50 56% 46 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:14
Marcin Prachnio 0 33 of 49 67% 54 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:25
3 Philipe Lins 0 16 of 25 64% 27 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Marcin Prachnio 0 17 of 34 50% 27 of 44 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Philipe Lins 74 of 117 63% 13 of 49 44 of 48 17 of 20 47 of 81 26 of 35 1 of 1
Marcin Prachnio 64 of 110 58% 36 of 79 20 of 22 8 of 9 52 of 96 9 of 10 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Philipe Lins 30 of 42 71% 4 of 11 14 of 16 12 of 15 23 of 33 7 of 9 0 of 0
Marcin Prachnio 14 of 27 51% 2 of 14 7 of 8 5 of 5 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Philipe Lins 28 of 50 56% 5 of 26 20 of 21 3 of 3 14 of 31 13 of 18 1 of 1
Marcin Prachnio 33 of 49 67% 25 of 40 8 of 9 0 of 0 27 of 42 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Philipe Lins 16 of 25 64% 4 of 12 10 of 11 2 of 2 10 of 17 6 of 8 0 of 0
Marcin Prachnio 17 of 34 50% 9 of 25 5 of 5 3 of 4 11 of 27 3 of 3 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Philipe Lins

Angelo likes Philipe Lins to win but is watching the scales closely because Lins is moving down from heavyweight. He notes Lins has legit power and a BJJ black belt, but prefers to trade. He mentions Prachnio has chin issues but an entire set of skills we haven't seen. He says if Lins looks good at 205 he will pick him and probably bet, but if he looks sucked out he will fade him.

Will bet on Lins if he looks good at weigh-ins; otherwise fade
"i actually like felipe linds to win this fight but i'm going to be watching the scales closely"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Big Brady picks Marcin Prachnio to win by knockout, citing his volume and recent improved performances. He notes that Philipe Lins has looked poor in the UFC and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he is concerned about Prachnio's chin and says it's hard to be confident. He predicts a second-round knockout.

Win by knockout, second round
"I will be going with proc new here... I'm actually going to take practice to win by knockout as well... second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Cody picks Prachnio, citing Lins' poor UFC performances and long layoff. He notes Prachnio's improved fight IQ and chin. He thinks Prachnio can win at range and avoid Lins' power. He mentions the 'don't let friends bet on guys that lost to Kelly Nunes' rule.

Prachnio inside the distance (+150 to +165)
"i like practice i like practical and i'm thinking that pragma might be able to get him outside inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2022 (fight day)
Philipe Lins

The host picks Philipe Lins as his dog of the night at +110 (1 unit). He believes Lins is the much better striker with enough power to find Prachnio's chin and finish him. He notes concerns about Lins' recent inactivity, weight cut, and KO loss to Tanner Boser, which is why he only bets 1 unit despite a 70% win probability.

Also likes the prop 'fight will end via KO' at -135.
"the dog of the night i'm actually gonna go with felipe linds uh one unit at plus 110 i think his uh striking will be much better than martin praknels here and i think he'll be able to crack meow …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Paul agrees, noting Lins' inactivity and poor showings at 205. He thinks Prachnio's striking and improved defense will be enough. He mentions the Kelly Nunes rule and expects Prachnio to win.

"i think practio can win this fight at range stay out of trouble don't get clipped"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio over Philipe Lins, expressing concerns about Lins making weight and his inactivity. He notes Prachnio's technical striking and ability to make fights awkward, but acknowledges his suspect chin. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Prachnio, believing Lins will gas and that Prachnio's confidence from a two-fight win streak will carry him. He mentions Prachnio's win over Khalil Rountree as a quality victory.

"i'm gonna actually go with marcin prachnio here over felipe lin's felipe linz first of all i don't trust him to make weight safely"
TKO (body kick) R2 0:56 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Prachnio 1 59 of 92 64% 60 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Ike Villanueva 0 34 of 79 43% 34 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Prachnio 0 48 of 79 60% 49 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ike Villanueva 0 32 of 72 44% 32 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
2 Marcin Prachnio 1 11 of 13 84% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Ike Villanueva 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Prachnio 59 of 92 64% 23 of 52 15 of 19 21 of 21 55 of 86 4 of 6 0 of 0
Ike Villanueva 34 of 79 43% 29 of 73 4 of 4 1 of 2 27 of 63 4 of 9 3 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Prachnio 48 of 79 60% 18 of 45 12 of 16 18 of 18 44 of 73 4 of 6 0 of 0
Ike Villanueva 32 of 72 44% 29 of 68 2 of 2 1 of 2 25 of 56 4 of 9 3 of 7
2 Marcin Prachnio 11 of 13 84% 5 of 7 3 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ike Villanueva 2 of 7 28% 0 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ike Villanueva

Angelo picks Ike Villanueva, citing his toughness, forward pressure, speed, and power. He notes that Prachnio's three first-round knockout losses raise chin questions. Angelo believes Villanueva is a solid underdog and likes the under on rounds as a prop.

under on rounds (2.5)
"i think villanueva gets this done i think he's in a great spot in this underdog spot"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ike Villanueva

Big Brady picks Ike Villanueva to win by first round KO, calling it a clear dog pass. He notes Prachnio's weak chin (four KO losses) and poor striking defense, while Villanueva is a powerful brawler with 83% finish rate. He believes the smaller Apex cage favors Villanueva's pressure style, and that Prachnio's path to victory (staying on the outside) is unlikely. He thinks the line is off and Villanueva should be closer to even.

by KO, first round, line makes no sense
"i'm actually going to pick ikeville over here to get the knockout on proc neil"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ike Villanueva

Cody picks Villanueva as a dog, noting his power and that Prachnio's chin has been checked. He thinks Villanueva has a puncher's chance and that Prachnio's defensive liabilities make him vulnerable. However, he is not confident and says he won't bet it, but for PRP purposes he takes Villanueva. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds +146 (1 unit)
"i think villanova is a live underdog but i remember at the top of the show you said you made a little bit of money last week and i said if i was disciplined i could have made money but …"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Jacob picks Marcin Prachnio, calling the fight a coin flip and going with Prachnio because he thinks he has a little more power than Ike. He notes a weird stat that Prachnio has never had a fight end in the second round. Jacob is not very confident and suggests staying away from this fight.

"i actually think that francio wins this fight um just because you know i think it's a coin flip and i'd go with crash new i think he's just got a little bit more power uh than ike"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ike Villanueva

Villanueva is durable and has heavy hands. Prachnio has a vulnerable chin and relies on a kicking game to stay away from power. Villanueva will march forward, absorb kicks, and land a knockout punch. Prachnio's chin issues will be exposed. Villanueva is one of my favorite dogs on the card.

Villanueva by KO plus 275
"I truly think that villanueva will uh uh you know expose that and i think he'll be able to find that knockout punch"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Paul leans toward Prachnio based on his technical improvements in the last fight, but he is not betting him at -190. He notes both fighters have questionable chins and thinks the under 1.5 rounds is a better play. He acknowledges Villanueva's power but thinks Prachnio's volume could be key.

under 1.5 rounds +146 (1 unit)
"i'll lean towards practice but i'm not betting him as a minus 200 favorite this guy's chin has been checked far too many times i'd rather just bet the under in this spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio by decision, expecting a boring fight where Prachnio keeps range and outpoints Villanueva. He acknowledges Prachnio's chin issues but believes Villanueva's chin is equally suspect. He criticizes Villanueva's UFC caliber and notes his win over Vinicius Moreira was unimpressive.

unanimous decision, 30-27
"i'm going to go with marcin prachnio here i think you'll get the job done by decision"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 · Jan 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Prachnio 0 49 of 148 33% 50 of 149 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 102 of 216 47% 105 of 220 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Prachnio 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 30 of 54 55% 32 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marcin Prachnio 0 20 of 48 41% 21 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 32 of 70 45% 33 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marcin Prachnio 0 13 of 62 20% 13 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 40 of 92 43% 40 of 92 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Prachnio 49 of 148 33% 29 of 120 13 of 18 7 of 10 49 of 146 0 of 2 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 102 of 216 47% 33 of 131 29 of 39 40 of 46 100 of 211 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Prachnio 16 of 38 42% 5 of 26 6 of 6 5 of 6 16 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 30 of 54 55% 8 of 26 7 of 12 15 of 16 29 of 52 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Marcin Prachnio 20 of 48 41% 14 of 39 4 of 6 2 of 3 20 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 32 of 70 45% 10 of 40 6 of 10 16 of 20 31 of 67 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Marcin Prachnio 13 of 62 20% 10 of 55 3 of 6 0 of 1 13 of 60 0 of 2 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 40 of 92 43% 15 of 65 16 of 17 9 of 10 40 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Big Brady picks Khalil Rountree Jr. confidently, citing Prachnio's poor striking defense and tendency to get knocked out in the first round (three times in UFC). He notes Rountree has finished five of eight wins in the first round. He predicts a first-round knockout and likes the Rountree round one prop at +175.

round one knockout, under 1.5 rounds
"i think round tree round one knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Daniel Levi picks Khalil Rountree Jr. by first-round knockout, noting Prachnio has been knocked out in the first round in all three UFC fights. He believes Rountree's speed and striking improvements in Thailand will be too much for Prachnio, who is too slow and doesn't belong in the UFC.

Rountree by first-round knockout
"i got khalil roundtree junior to be a first round knockout shack"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Both fighters have sketchy chins and a high percentage of their fights ending under 1.5 rounds. Prachnio has diminishing durability and has been knocked out in his last three fights. Rountree has power and should be able to land a counter or follow-up shots. I expect a knockout from Rountree, likely in the first round. The under 1.5 rounds is a solid bet given the statistics and the matchup.

under 1.5 rounds (-170)
"I like the under one and a half here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr. to win by first-round TKO, calling Marcin Prachnio overmatched and past his prime. He notes Prachnio was brutally KO'd by Mike Rodriguez in his last fight and is taking a quick turnaround. He believes Rountree's striking will be too much, and he predicts a brutal finish via overhand right or similar shot. He expresses hope Rountree doesn't retire.

First-round TKO
"i'm gonna go with khalil roundtree jr getting it done by a brutal finish in the first round with like an overhand right"