Career Averages - Brian Ortega
Career Averages - Cub Swanson
Brian Ortega - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 55 of 174 | 31% | 100 of 225 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 124 of 227 | 54% | 153 of 262 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 2 of 28 | 7% | 2 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 9 of 40 | 22% | 9 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 13 of 54 | 24% | 13 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 21 of 42 | 50% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 35 of 52 | 67% | 35 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 13 of 37 | 35% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 25 of 39 | 64% | 35 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 | |
| 5 | Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 10 of 27 | 37% | 39 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 24 of 38 | 63% | 43 of 63 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aljamain Sterling | 55 of 174 | 31% | 30 of 138 | 20 of 29 | 5 of 7 | 54 of 173 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Brian Ortega | 124 of 227 | 54% | 77 of 175 | 21 of 26 | 26 of 26 | 100 of 198 | 7 of 7 | 17 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aljamain Sterling | 2 of 28 | 7% | 2 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 27 of 44 | 61% | 16 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 8 | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Aljamain Sterling | 9 of 40 | 22% | 5 of 33 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 13 of 54 | 24% | 6 of 44 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Aljamain Sterling | 21 of 42 | 50% | 8 of 27 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 35 of 52 | 67% | 25 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 34 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Aljamain Sterling | 13 of 37 | 35% | 8 of 29 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Brian Ortega | 25 of 39 | 64% | 13 of 26 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 6 | |
| 5 | Aljamain Sterling | 10 of 27 | 37% | 7 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 24 of 38 | 63% | 17 of 31 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 16 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
On merit and divisional relevance, this probably should have been the main event, but that divisional relevance was obliterated by Ortega’s weight cut failure, leading to a 153-pound catchweight affair. It’s still a hell of a fight, however, and when the featherweight contenders go to work, Herb Dean will be tasked with his final referee assignment of the event. Both men are in orthodox stance to open things up, and both come up short with reaching jabs in the first exchanges. Ortega goes southpaw. Thirty seconds in, Sterling feints his first level change, but no takedown attempt follows. Sterling throws a one-two that Ortega slips by pulling his head straight back, then nearly spills him with a nicely timed low kick. Sterling lands a pair of glancing punches and easily eludes the counter. Ortega is barely throwing anything back thus far in the fight. As I type that, he launches a blistering right cross that comes up just barely short. Two minutes left in the first round and Sterling lands another solid low kick—an investment in attrition, especially if this goes into the scheduled fourth and fifth rounds. Sterling with another chopping low kick that lands high on the calf. With under 30 seconds to go, it’s been all Sterling, but Ortega comes forward and lands his best punch of the round before the horn.
10-9 Sterling.
Round 2
Sterling is busy with the jab right away. Ortega throws a high kick that Sterling evades by slipping his head off the center line. Sterling is methodical, coming forward with his jab and cross, nailing Ortega with a calf kick anytime he stands his ground. It isn’t dazzling but it’s brutally effective, as Ortega is throwing next to nothing, aside from single big shots. Sterling tries a spinning backfist that glances without damage. Ortega takes the front foot midway through the round, backing up the former bantamweight champ and throwing righty haymakers. Sterling gives ground, keeps his chin out of range and keeps working on the lead leg. Sterling catches Ortega with a sweeping right hook and Ortega backs off, pawing at his left eye. Sterling looks at the referee, who states that it was a punch, not a finger, and indicates that they should keep fighting. They do not do so immediately, Sterling does not press the issue, and the result is effectively a 45-second timeout after no foul. Once they resume fighting, the round ends without any more substantive offense from either man.
10-9 Sterling.
Round 3
Sterling has to walk two-thirds of the way across the Octagon in order to touch gloves with Ortega; a decent metaphor for this fight in general. Ortega comes forward, snapping out his jab, and tags Sterling with a low kick. Ortega fires off another kick, this one clattering audibly off of Sterling’s cup, but Sterling waves off any intervention by Dean. Sterling continues to give ground in the face of Ortega’s advance, but is still landing more and better strikes. Ortega gets through with another good leg kick, and Sterling catches his next one, hoisting the kicking leg and punching him before letting go. Sterling snaps Ortega’s head back with a jab, then sits him down with a calf kick. Ortega pops back to his feet and lands a good low kick of his own. Sterling steps forward and connects with a long jab. Ortega marches Sterling to the fence but can’t capitalize before he slips out the side. Under a minute to go and Ortega is definitely the aggressor, but that shouldn’t be enough to win the round in the face of the disparity in offense. Ortega catches a kick but can’t land anything of consequence. Ortega fires off a stream of punches at the clapper, but it’s Sterling who connects with a spinning back elbow.
10-9 Sterling.
Round 4
The fourth round begins with Ortega down three to zero on our scorecard, but showing signs of life at the end of the last frame. “T-City” keeps up the pressure, stalking Sterling and trying to back him into the fence. Sterling continues to give ground, but he is still the one landing more and harder strikes. Ortega finally corrals him against the cage, but Sterling slips a couple of haymakers and makes his way back to open space. Two minutes into the round, Ortega is game but still a step behind, as he has been for essentially the entire fight. Sterling snaps his head back with a jab, then delivers another kick to Ortega’s battered left calf. Ortega makes things interesting, swarming forward, catching Sterling against the fence and throwing a flurry of punches with both hands. Many of them glance, but enough of them land that Sterling has to cover and back off. Ortega clinches with him against the fence, and Sterling dumps him to the canvas a moment later, settling in the jiu-jitsu ace’s full guard. Sterling is defensively sound and heavy on top, keeping his posture low while throwing short punches and looking to pass the guard. He postures up and drops a couple of punches and elbows before the horn.
10-9 Sterling.
Round 5
Ortega gets the now-or-never pep talk from his corner before the final round, and comes out hot. Sterling meets him with yet another hard low kick, but he’s forced to retreat in the face of Ortega’s attack. Ortega catches Sterling with a wide hook, his best punch of the fight, and Sterling backs off. Ortega initiates a takedown, but Sterling lands in top position, in Ortega’s full guard. Sterling postures up to look for ground strikes, then stand up out of the guard, and as Ortega gets up, Sterling catches him with a timed, but legal, knee to the dome. Ortega gets to his feet and catches Sterling with a right hand that hurts him. Sterling is in retreat, trying to recover and evade further damage as Ortega gives chase. He avoids the follow-up, but the strategy is so obvious that he draws a warning from Dean for timidity. Ortega crashes the pocket and clinches, but as the go down, it’s Sterling who takes Ortega’s back. Sterling sinks his hooks in and looks for a choke, but Ortega sweeps to top position. Sterling sweeps him right back and throws leather from guard until the horn.
10-9 Sterling (50-45 Sterling).
The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. Brian Ortega via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
Angelo is extremely confident in Aljamain Sterling, calling him a backpack grappler with developed striking and spectacular ground game. He dismisses Brian Ortega as not very good anymore, relying only on toughness. He expects Sterling to get takedowns and dominate on the ground, likely by decision due to Ortega's toughness. He says this is one of his most confident picks on the card.
Big Brady picks Aljamain Sterling to win by decision, citing Sterling's minute-winning ability on the feet and slick grappling. He notes that Sterling throws high volume and can take Ortega down, though he must watch for submissions. He believes Ortega is dangerous but hittable, and that Sterling will control the fight and win a decision.
Connor notes that Brian Ortega's game has disintegrated; he used to rely on durability but now gets hurt early in fights. He highlights that Ortega is a guard grappler but hasn't gotten a guard submission since 2017, and his wrestling is an afterthought. Sterling, on the other hand, is a much better wrestler who can dictate grappling exchanges and pile up volume on the feet. Connor is curious to see how Sterling handles Ortega's guard, but believes Sterling's positional grappling will keep him on top.
The host sees this as a fun grappling matchup, but thinks Sterling's advantage in wrestling and control will shut down Ortega's aggressive BJJ. He expects Sterling to grind out a boring fight and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling to win by decision, citing Ortega's poor weight cut and zombie-like appearance at weigh-ins. He believes Sterling is more disciplined and professional, with better wrestling and positional grappling. He notes that Sterling can avoid Ortega's submission threats by pushing him against the cage and working from the back. He also thinks Sterling will do well on the feet, as Ortega has looked lost there at times.
Zane agrees that Sterling is the pick, citing Ortega's decline and the fact that he gets hurt in every fight now. He points out that Ortega's entire career has been about absorbing damage, and that Sterling's wrestling and speed will give Ortega problems. Zane also notes that Sterling has never faced a guard grappler like Ortega, but believes Sterling's mindful positional grappling will avoid spending much time in Ortega's guard.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 63 of 195 | 32% | 69 of 201 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 106 of 206 | 51% | 113 of 214 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 15 of 45 | 33% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 29 of 57 | 50% | 34 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 | |
| 2 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 16 of 48 | 33% | 16 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 22 of 46 | 47% | 22 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 32 of 102 | 31% | 32 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 55 of 103 | 53% | 57 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | 63 of 195 | 32% | 52 of 180 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 61 of 192 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Brian Ortega | 106 of 206 | 51% | 75 of 172 | 13 of 15 | 18 of 19 | 75 of 161 | 6 of 7 | 25 of 38 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Lopes | 15 of 45 | 33% | 11 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Brian Ortega | 29 of 57 | 50% | 24 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 26 | |
| 2 | Diego Lopes | 16 of 48 | 33% | 12 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 22 of 46 | 47% | 11 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 10 | 20 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Diego Lopes | 32 of 102 | 31% | 29 of 97 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 101 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 55 of 103 | 53% | 40 of 87 | 10 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 41 of 87 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 12 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lopes (-175), Ortega (+145)
Round 1
A backdrop of the Mexico City Metropolitan Cathedral is the fighting area for this next bout, one that signals the victory of Mexico in winning its independence. A relatively short-notice matchup between these upcoming fighters turned into a spectacle at UFC 303, when Ortega (16-3, 1 NC; 8-3, 1 NC UFC) realized that he would not be anywhere close to reaching the featherweight limit. When the weight cut down to 155 pounds still sickened him to the point of withdrawing from the bout, Lopes (25-6, 4-1 UFC) made modern UFC history when Dan Ige stepped in just a few hours before the match. Rescheduled for this September showcase and neither man having issue making weight, the two elite featherweights will settle things. Referee Marc Goddard draws the assignment for this intense 145-pound contest, and he checks the fighters in. They clap hands, and proceed cautiously. Ortega leads off with his boxing, sticking out a few short strings of punches. Lopes responds with a low kick, and a remarkably powerful barrage of blows that knock Ortega off his feet. Ortega recovers to try to escape, and Lopes follows him, lifts him up and hurls him to the mat like a side of beef. Lopes decides to get into the guard so he can hammer Ortega with ground-and-pound, and he shrugs off a triangle choke to bust up Ortega’s eye. Lopes lowers himself down again to attack, once more pushing past a triangle, and the cut on Ortega’s left eye is even worse. Ortega turns over to give up his back, and the Brazilian leaps on top of him and lays into him with right hands. Ortega works his way off the fence and smacks Lopes with an upkick, so Lopes responds by grabbing hold of the ankle and lowering himself down to attack. Ortega’s snake-like offensive guard threatens every step of the way, and Lopes appears to want to make a point by either submitting Ortega or playing fearlessly in his guard. Lopes cannot find a way in, so he backs off and beckons Ortega back to his feet. Ortega thanks him for this by landing a pair of punches, and Lopes returns fire to that damaged eye. Ortega plants two kicks in the inside of his foe’s leg, and he connects with an uppercut and a left hand. Lopes jabs his way in, and Ortega’s is far more concussive as he knocks Lopes back. Lopes scoops a left hook around the guard and square into Ortega’s jaw, and Ortega responds with a blitz that is met with an elbow. Lopes sticks out his jab and follows it with a low kick, and he checks a kick coming back his way. Ortega catches a kick and winds up a right hand, but Lopes beats him to the punch when wrenching it back and clips Ortega with a three-fist bouquet. Lopes loops a left over the guard, and he connects with three punches before Ortega can give one back. “T-City” plants a kick to the ribs, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Round 2
The two men high-five before engaging again. Ortega leads off behind his jab, and Lopes sways as his mullet follows behind him. Ortega boxes his way in, and has his chin checked by powerful punches from the Brazilian. Lopes walks through a jab to load up on a right hand, and he tags a speeding Ortega with a right hand as Ortega comes by him. Ortega lets his right hand fly as well, and Lopes ducks and works the body. Lopes gets off a few leg kicks, and Ortega shoots in for a single and is uppercutted several times to stop his approach. Lopes keeps working on the front leg during the lulls, and Ortega loads up on a pair on his own side. Lopes wings a right hand that is easily parried, and he hops forward with a left hook that just misses the mark as well. The looping Lopes right hand knocks Ortega back, and he shakes it off and eats a subsequent head kick like a chile relleno. Lopes darts in with two punches, Ortega pays him back, and they trade power shots. Lopes blasts the former title challenger with a leg kick that knocks Ortega off his feet, and a huge welt has developed on and around his shin. Lopes lets him stand back up, and he kicks the same spot once before Ortega races at him. The two trade jabs, and Ortega follows one with a straight right hand. Lopes’ counter combo bounces off the guard, and he slaps a low kick as Ortega fails on checking it. Lopes plants a right hand on the jaw at the end of three punches, and Ortega counters with a right up top and a few jabs. Ortega partially checks a chopping kick, and his jab reddens the nose of the Brazilian. The round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Round 3
The fighters clap hands one final time as the last round begins, and Ortega is not sure-footed as he slips on his front leg. Lopes scoops a left hand around the guard and nails Ortega’s swollen shin with another kick. Ortega jabs the body, and Lopes sits down on a left hook that clubs “T-City” on the side of the noggin. The featherweights trade jabs, and Ortega attacks his own leg kick. Lopes does the same with another kick, and he catches Ortega in the midst of a combination. Ortega stands in the pocket and trades leather, and Lopes clips him again but Ortega is right there to deliver punishment in response. Lopes absorbs several straight punches, and he loads up on responses. Lopes snaps the head back with bitter strikes, and Ortega remains right in front of him putting his hands in his face. Lopes chops the front leg and goes after a push kick, and Ortega catches the second but sets it down. Ortega sneakily works his way into a takedown attempt, and the Brazilian stops it in its tracks and pushes Ortega away. Lopes nails the front leg with his umpteenth kick, and Ortega pops Lopes in the chops with a big right hand. Lopes hurts Ortega with a right hand and a left, and Ortega wipes his eye as if he got poked, but it appeared to be a punch and not an outstretched digit. Lopes races at him throwing hands, but he ties him up and holds on instead of taking him down or otherwise attacking. They separate, and Lopes apologizes in case he was a poke after all. Ortega acknowledges it, and the two start slugging. Ortega fights behind his jab, and Lopes wobbles him twice with massive left hooks. Ortega’s chin is made of sterner stuff as he rarely backs off, but eventually Lopes’ left hook finds its home in the perfect way. Lopes sends “T-City” flying, and he runs after him and takes his back to try to submit the grappler. He bails from that submission setup to stand and bang for the remaining seconds, and he batters Ortega with a final flurry of fists.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes (30-27 Lopes)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes (30-27 Lopes)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lopes (30-27 Lopes)
The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Brian Ortega via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Diego Lopes confidently, having placed a full unit on him at -175. He dismisses concerns about Lopes fading in the third round of his last fight, attributing it to the chaos of multiple opponent and weight class changes on short notice. He believes Lopes is the better striker and grappler, and that Ortega's takedown accuracy is poor. He criticizes Ortega for missing weight and calls him a 'fat slob', expecting Lopes to steamroll him again.
Big Brady picks Lopes, citing his rapid improvement, youth, and hunger. He notes Lopes can win by decision or early finish, but expects Ortega's toughness to carry him to a decision loss. He predicts Lopes wins 29-28.
Daniel picks Diego Lopes but with low confidence, citing Lopes' tendency to fade in third rounds and Ortega's legendary third-round finishing ability. He thinks Lopes will win a controversial split decision by taking the first two rounds, but worries about Ortega's durability and Lopes' cardio. He notes Lopes' dangerous hooks and Ortega's ability to weather storms.
Daniel Vreeland picks Brian Ortega as a dog, citing his grappling advantage as the difference maker. He notes Ortega nearly submitted Alexander Volkanovski and controlled Yair Rodriguez on the mat. He believes Diego Lopez relies on scrambles, while Ortega catches people in scrambles. He trusts Ortega's grappling to hold up and likes the plus money.
Jeff Fox picks Diego Lopes because he is bigger, younger, and can grapple a bit. He took Lopes last time and is sticking with him, noting Lopes is on a roll.
The transcript does not discuss this fight. The host covers other fights but not Lopes vs Ortega.
Lopez's BJJ background will save him from the threat Ortega normally poses on the ground. Lopez also provides more threats in the striking realm. Expects Lopez to win inside the distance.
The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes. He notes that Ortega is a slow starter and Lopes is more switched on currently. He believes Lopes has better takedown defense and grappling conditioning than Yair Rodriguez, and his striking is more consistent. He also mentions Ortega has taken a lot of damage and has had only one fight in over two years. He sees Lopes winning by finish or decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Ortega | 1 | 55 of 115 | 47% | 64 of 135 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 28 of 73 | 38% | 47 of 104 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 5:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Ortega | 1 | 45 of 91 | 49% | 50 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 6 of 28 | 21% | 7 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 | |
| 2 | Brian Ortega | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 39 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 | |
| 3 | Brian Ortega | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Ortega | 55 of 115 | 47% | 36 of 91 | 11 of 15 | 8 of 9 | 34 of 86 | 9 of 12 | 12 of 17 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 28 of 73 | 38% | 26 of 69 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Ortega | 45 of 91 | 49% | 28 of 69 | 10 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 24 of 62 | 9 of 12 | 12 of 17 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 6 of 28 | 21% | 5 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brian Ortega | 9 of 17 | 52% | 7 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 22 of 44 | 50% | 21 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 20 | |
| 3 | Brian Ortega | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ortega with low confidence, citing the first fight where Ortega was winning before his shoulder injury. He notes the elevation and crowd in Mexico could favor Rodriguez, but trusts his brain over his gut. He worries about Ortega's long layoff but believes he can squeak out a win.
Big Brady picks Yair Rodríguez to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Rodríguez has been more active and looked impressive against Josh Emmett, while Ortega has had a long layoff. He believes Rodríguez has the advantage on the feet with his kicks and power, and that Ortega is hittable. He doubts Ortega's wrestling will be effective, as Rodríguez stuffed takedowns in their first fight. He expects Rodríguez to dominate at range and eventually finish Ortega.
Cody picks Ortega, noting that in their first fight Ortega was winning before the shoulder injury. He believes Ortega's skills haven't digressed, his jiu-jitsu is second to none, and his wrestling is good enough to take down Rodriguez. He also mentions Ortega's ability to come back better after layoffs, as he did after the Holloway loss. He considers the plus 130 price good value.
The host recalls the first fight where Rodríguez kept Ortega at bay with striking and Ortega's only success was a clinch takedown that led to an injury. He believes Rodríguez needs to keep the fight standing, and even if it goes to the ground, Rodríguez has worked on his jiu-jitsu to defend and get back to his feet. He predicts Rodríguez will finish Ortega by the third round.
Paul is leaning towards Ortega but is hesitant due to the year-and-a-half layoff, Ortega's age (33), and his recent record (lost last two, hasn't finished in six years). However, he acknowledges Ortega matched up well in the first fight and has the skills to win. He says if he had a gun to his head he'd pick Ortega, but it's a wild card pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 22 of 35 | 62% | 26 of 39 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 48 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 0 | 22 of 35 | 62% | 26 of 39 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 48 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yair Rodríguez | 22 of 35 | 62% | 18 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 27 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 23 of 46 | 50% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yair Rodríguez | 22 of 35 | 62% | 18 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 27 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 23 of 46 | 50% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Yair Rodríguez, citing his dynamic striking and unpredictability. He believes Ortega's poor takedown accuracy (24%) will prevent him from getting the fight to the ground, and that Rodríguez's striking will be too much. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway despite the loss, and that he won't have ring rust this time. He placed a small moneyline bet at +137.
Big Brady picks Brian Ortega to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes that Ortega has improved his wrestling significantly, attempting many takedowns in recent fights against top competition like Holloway, Korean Zombie, and Volkanovski. He believes Ortega can take down Rodriguez, who has been taken down frequently in the past, and once on the ground, Ortega's submission game is elite. He acknowledges Rodriguez is the better striker but thinks Ortega's path to victory is through grappling.
Cody argues that Yair Rodríguez's ground game and wrestling are exploitable, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar and Jeremy Stephens where he was taken down easily. He notes that Brian Ortega has improved his wrestling, taking down elite fighters like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Cody believes Ortega will capitalize on Rodríguez's tendency to fall off-balance and secure a submission or dominant ground control.
Daniel Levi picks Yair Rodríguez to win as an underdog, emphasizing that Yair must keep the fight standing and avoid reckless spinning attacks that could lead to takedowns. He notes that Ortega is dangerous on the ground with submissions and has a history of comeback finishes, but believes Yair's discipline and striking can earn a decision. Levi mentions he will likely bet Yair at +155, viewing it as a dog-or-pass situation due to high variance.
Paul agrees with Cody that Ortega is the rightful favorite, citing Yair's overrated win over Korean Zombie where he was seconds from losing. He emphasizes that Ortega's takedowns and submission threat will be decisive, and notes the line moving from -150 to -180. Paul suggests under 4.5 rounds and Ortega by submission as prop bets.
The MMA Guru picks Brian Ortega over Yair Rodríguez, citing Ortega's superior jiu-jitsu and ability to capitalize on Rodríguez's defensive habits. He notes that Rodríguez dips his head when pressured, which could lead to a guillotine choke. He also mentions Ortega's improved footwork and takedowns, and believes Rodríguez's power is overrated. He predicts a third-round submission win for Ortega.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 214 of 353 | 60% | 229 of 377 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 3:51 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 88 of 234 | 37% | 101 of 250 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 3 | 1 | 0:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 30 of 52 | 57% | 30 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 16 of 51 | 31% | 16 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 38 of 61 | 62% | 38 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 23 of 58 | 39% | 23 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 61 of 99 | 61% | 65 of 109 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:13 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 22 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0:41 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 35 of 58 | 60% | 46 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:33 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 14 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:13 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 50 of 83 | 60% | 50 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 26 of 70 | 37% | 26 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 214 of 353 | 60% | 146 of 270 | 20 of 26 | 48 of 57 | 158 of 254 | 3 of 6 | 53 of 93 |
| Brian Ortega | 88 of 234 | 37% | 59 of 193 | 20 of 26 | 9 of 15 | 82 of 225 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 30 of 52 | 57% | 14 of 32 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 13 | 30 of 50 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 16 of 51 | 31% | 9 of 39 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 7 | 15 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 38 of 61 | 62% | 19 of 38 | 5 of 8 | 14 of 15 | 38 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 23 of 58 | 39% | 14 of 47 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 22 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 61 of 99 | 61% | 46 of 81 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 15 | 30 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 57 |
| Brian Ortega | 17 of 40 | 42% | 12 of 32 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 35 of 58 | 60% | 28 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 36 |
| Brian Ortega | 6 of 15 | 40% | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 50 of 83 | 60% | 39 of 69 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 47 of 79 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 26 of 70 | 37% | 19 of 62 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 66 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Volkanovski, citing his speed, footwork, and takedowns. He notes that Volkanovski is the better striker and wrestler, while Ortega is the better grappler. Angelo believes Volkanovski will keep the fight at range, use leg kicks, and piece up Ortega. He doesn't expect Volkanovski to shoot takedowns due to Ortega's guillotine.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision. He believes Volkanovski is the better striker with superior volume and defense, and he will win the minutes of the fight. He acknowledges Ortega's danger on the ground and his power, but thinks Volkanovski can avoid submissions and outpoint him over five rounds.
Cody acknowledges Volkanovski's near-perfect UFC run, strong wrestling, cardio, and fight IQ, but is hesitant because Ortega is a worthy challenger with excellent jiu-jitsu that could neutralize Volkanovski's wrestling. He notes Ortega's striking improvements and durability, but ultimately leans Volkanovski due to his ability to find a way to win. He prefers to attack the over rounds rather than the moneyline.
Daniel Levi picks Alexander Volkanovski but is hesitant, acknowledging that MMA is not a logical sport. He notes that all tape, stats, and logic point to Volkanovski winning, but Ortega has the ability to hurt and finish opponents. Levi debunks the myth that Ortega can't throw volume, citing his high strike attempts against Renato Moicano, Max Holloway, and Korean Zombie. He is worried about Volkanovski being hurt, as seen in the Max Holloway fight, but ultimately goes with the champion.
Jacob picks Volkanovski, calling him very technical. He questions whether Ortega has improved his striking, particularly his jab and check left. Jacob thinks Volkanovski will keep distance and work leg kicks. He's rooting for Ortega but expects Volkanovski to win.
The host picks Alexander Volkanovski to retain his title via decision. He believes Volkanovski is a master at executing game plans and will use feints, leg kicks, and movement to stifle Ortega. He thinks Ortega's improved striking is overrated based on the Korean Zombie fight and that Volkanovski's submission defense will keep him safe. He expects a masterful performance and a decision win.
Paul is confident in Volkanovski, citing his strength, tactical fighting, reach advantage, and ability to push Ortega off when he tries to tie up. He references Volkanovski's wins over Max Holloway and Ortega's loss to Holloway where Ortega was badly beaten. He believes Volkanovski wins by decision and likes the over due to Ortega's durability.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski over Brian Ortega, citing Volkanovski's composure, leg kicks, and body work. He notes that Ortega is a live dog but Volkanovski has shown he can recover from being dropped. He expects Volkanovski to chop at the legs in the first two rounds, then finish with a fourth-round TKO as Ortega's mobility is compromised. He highlights Volkanovski's undefeated record at featherweight and wins over Holloway and Aldo.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Ortega | 2 | 127 of 212 | 59% | 129 of 214 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 62 of 163 | 38% | 64 of 166 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Ortega | 1 | 24 of 39 | 61% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brian Ortega | 1 | 23 of 37 | 62% | 24 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 14 of 34 | 41% | 14 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brian Ortega | 0 | 28 of 42 | 66% | 28 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 7 of 32 | 21% | 7 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Brian Ortega | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 18 of 36 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 10 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Brian Ortega | 0 | 35 of 59 | 59% | 35 of 59 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Ortega | 127 of 212 | 59% | 64 of 135 | 22 of 28 | 41 of 49 | 118 of 199 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 6 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 62 of 163 | 38% | 35 of 127 | 14 of 21 | 13 of 15 | 62 of 162 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Ortega | 24 of 39 | 61% | 11 of 24 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 9 | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 14 of 26 | 53% | 4 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brian Ortega | 23 of 37 | 62% | 14 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 14 of 34 | 41% | 12 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brian Ortega | 28 of 42 | 66% | 13 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 13 | 27 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 7 of 32 | 21% | 2 of 23 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 7 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Brian Ortega | 17 of 35 | 48% | 5 of 18 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 11 | 15 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 8 of 26 | 30% | 1 of 18 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Brian Ortega | 35 of 59 | 59% | 21 of 43 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 35 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 19 of 45 | 42% | 16 of 40 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks the Korean Zombie due to his superior striking defense and output, Ortega's poor striking defense (absorbs 7.36 strikes per minute), and the two-year layoff for Ortega. He believes the fight will stay standing because Ortega lacks wrestling to get takedowns, and Jung's takedown defense is excellent. He predicts a late stoppage (4th or 5th round).
The MMA Guru picks the Korean Zombie because Ortega is a slow starter who gets hit a lot, and Zombie is one of the best first-round fighters in the division. He notes Ortega's long layoff and the damage he took against Holloway, while Zombie has never been submitted and has crisp standup. He predicts a second-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 0 | 290 of 490 | 59% | 307 of 507 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 110 of 292 | 37% | 112 of 294 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 40 of 84 | 47% | 46 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 19 of 65 | 29% | 19 of 65 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 66 of 126 | 52% | 66 of 126 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 33 of 92 | 35% | 33 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 50 of 84 | 59% | 54 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 30 of 81 | 37% | 32 of 83 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 134 of 196 | 68% | 141 of 203 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 28 of 54 | 51% | 28 of 54 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 290 of 490 | 59% | 244 of 430 | 41 of 55 | 5 of 5 | 281 of 479 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
| Brian Ortega | 110 of 292 | 37% | 87 of 267 | 16 of 18 | 7 of 7 | 101 of 282 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 40 of 84 | 47% | 30 of 70 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 39 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 19 of 65 | 29% | 13 of 59 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 66 of 126 | 52% | 60 of 118 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 66 of 126 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 33 of 92 | 35% | 29 of 88 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 90 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 50 of 84 | 59% | 44 of 76 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 50 of 82 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Ortega | 30 of 81 | 37% | 23 of 73 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 77 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 134 of 196 | 68% | 110 of 166 | 24 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 126 of 188 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Brian Ortega | 28 of 54 | 51% | 22 of 47 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 51 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 27 of 77 | 35% | 27 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Frankie Edgar | 1 | 25 of 76 | 32% | 25 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Ortega | 0 | 27 of 77 | 35% | 27 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Frankie Edgar | 1 | 25 of 76 | 32% | 25 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Ortega | 27 of 77 | 35% | 12 of 59 | 10 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Frankie Edgar | 25 of 76 | 32% | 21 of 71 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 66 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Ortega | 27 of 77 | 35% | 12 of 59 | 10 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Frankie Edgar | 25 of 76 | 32% | 21 of 71 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 66 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 |
Cub Swanson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 2 | 37 of 49 | 75% | 40 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 2 | 37 of 49 | 75% | 40 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 37 of 49 | 75% | 23 of 33 | 7 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 35 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Nate Landwehr | 15 of 30 | 50% | 9 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 37 of 49 | 75% | 23 of 33 | 7 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 35 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Nate Landwehr | 15 of 30 | 50% | 9 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Cub Swanson in his retirement fight, citing his superior technique, fight IQ, and all-around skills. He notes Landwehr's reliance on his chin, which has given out, and believes Swanson is the better fighter everywhere. He expects the crowd support to help in a decision.
Big Brady expects a war, noting both fighters are durable and willing to brawl. He thinks Landwehr could use his grappling to submit Swanson, who has been submitted seven times. He worries about Landwehr's recent knockout losses and damage taken, but leans Landwehr by submission in the second or third round.
Cody also picks Swanson, citing Landwehr's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Swanson's speed and volume will be too much for Landwehr, who has been knocked out recently.
Connor picks Landwehr, arguing that Swanson is too slow now and that Landwehr's pressure and durability will be too much. He notes that Swanson's last fight against Billy Quarantillo was tooth-and-nail, and that Swanson can't move his feet anymore. Connor believes Landwehr is still capable of winning a grimy pocket fight, and that Swanson's age (42) and layoff will catch up to him. He thinks Swanson will end up in Landwehr's kind of fight and get chin-checked.
Daniel respects Swanson but thinks Landwehr's pace and calf kicks will be too much for the 42-year-old. He sees Landwehr winning by accumulation of damage or submission.
Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Landwehr, believing that Landwehr's pressure, leg kicks, and grappling will overwhelm the aging Cub Swanson. He notes that Swanson's cardio fades after the first round and that Landwehr is durable and gets better as the fight goes on. He also mentions that Swanson's retirement fight may be a paycheck fight.
The host leans towards Landwehr due to Swanson's long layoff (2 years) at age 42, which could lead to significant decline. He notes Landwehr's more recent fight showed better cardio, while Swanson slowed in his last fights. He also thinks Landwehr is more likely to be fully focused, while Swanson has outside business distractions. However, he acknowledges both fighters are old and inconsistent, so confidence is low.
James picks Cub Swanson, citing his experience in wars and technical striking advantage. He acknowledges Landwehr's pressure but believes Swanson's durability and power will prevail.
Swanson's technical striking and counter-punching should be the difference. Landwehr is durable but tends to run into shots and has been knocked out recently. Swanson's footwork and experience allow him to land clean counters. Landwehr may try to grapple, but Swanson's defensive grappling is solid. Swanson should get the knockout in his retirement fight.
Paul picks Swanson, noting his experience, speed, and training with young killers. He believes Landwehr's durability is declining and Swanson's crisp striking will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr. He believes Swanson still has it, with recent wins over Billy Quarantillo and a split decision with Andre Fili. He notes Landwehr gets caught and KO'd, and Swanson can land a looping overhand. He predicts a TKO win in round one or two, with Swanson having a retirement send-off.
Zane picks Swanson, arguing that Landwehr is too simplistic and one-dimensional. He notes that Swanson still has head movement and pocket comfort, and that Landwehr has no footwork, feints, or subtlety. Zane believes Swanson can outclass Landwehr, comparing it to Swanson fighting a downgraded version of Jeremy Stevens. He acknowledges Swanson's age but thinks his experience and savvy will prevail. He hopes Swanson wins and retires on a high note.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 1 | 99 of 158 | 62% | 114 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 0 | 97 of 237 | 40% | 108 of 249 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 0 | 39 of 57 | 68% | 40 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 0 | 37 of 88 | 42% | 37 of 88 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Cub Swanson | 0 | 40 of 69 | 57% | 54 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 0 | 38 of 105 | 36% | 49 of 117 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 | |
| 3 | Cub Swanson | 1 | 20 of 32 | 62% | 20 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 99 of 158 | 62% | 74 of 127 | 13 of 18 | 12 of 13 | 95 of 154 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 97 of 237 | 40% | 65 of 188 | 20 of 32 | 12 of 17 | 91 of 222 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 39 of 57 | 68% | 23 of 38 | 7 of 10 | 9 of 9 | 39 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 37 of 88 | 42% | 22 of 66 | 6 of 10 | 9 of 12 | 37 of 87 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cub Swanson | 40 of 69 | 57% | 35 of 61 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 36 of 65 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 38 of 105 | 36% | 31 of 91 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 32 of 91 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cub Swanson | 20 of 32 | 62% | 16 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 22 of 44 | 50% | 12 of 31 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 22 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Quarantillo because he will be a touch faster with better movement, but he acknowledges Cub Swanson's toughness and all-around skills. He notes Quarantillo's aggression, BJJ, and volume striking, while Swanson is old and slow but still dangerous. He is considering betting the over 1.5 rounds and a plus 3.5 spread on Swanson, expecting a close decision.
Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by third-round submission. He thinks Quarantillo's pressure, volume, and grappling can break Swanson, especially if he gets the fight to the mat. He notes Swanson has been submitted many times. However, he worries about Quarantillo's chin and durability, as Swanson still has power.
Cody picks Billy Quarantillo, citing his high volume striking (7.36 strikes per minute), pressure, and submission threat. He notes Cub Swanson's age (41), mileage, and recent losses, and believes Billy's pace and durability will overwhelm Cub. Cody also mentions the hometown advantage for Billy in Tampa.
Connor also picks Swanson, citing that Quarantillo's style is similar to Colby Covington's and ages out quickly. He notes that Swanson is still sharp and dangerous, with better boxing and power, and that Quarantillo's wrestling is not a reliable path to victory. Connor thinks Quarantillo may be 'shot' and that Swanson's experience will prevail.
Daniel Vreeland picks Cub Swanson for the upset, despite being a fan of Billy Quarantillo. He argues that Quarantillo's comeback style relies on taking damage early, and at 36, that may be harder to sustain. Vreeland notes Swanson's speed, accuracy, and experience in wars, comparing this to Swanson's fight against Darren Elkins. He believes Swanson will land significant damage before Quarantillo can drag him into deep waters.
Lucrative James picks Cub Swanson as an underdog, acknowledging it's a close fight. He believes Swanson has more knockout upside early and can land heavy shots to stop Quarantillo's pressure. He notes Swanson's veteran savvy and power, but admits concerns about Swanson's age (41) and potential cardio decline. He sees value in Swanson at plus odds, though he is not fully confident.
Quarantillo's relentless and smothering grappling style will cause Cub Swanson trouble. He will crowd Swanson's space, jump on his back, and sink in a rear-naked choke, with the finish coming within 10 minutes.
Paul picks Billy Quarantillo but with some hesitation. He notes that Billy's pace can be stifled by wrestling, but Cub Swanson is unlikely to use that approach. Paul sees it as a standup affair where Billy's volume and pressure should win out, though he acknowledges Cub's toughness and the possibility of a competitive first round.
The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson as an underdog, calling Billy Quarantillo 'absolute garbage'. He criticizes Quarantillo's lack of explosiveness and poor distance management, and notes that Swanson has better hands, power, and body work. He predicts Swanson will target the body and possibly get a body shot TKO in round two. He also notes that Quarantillo has been exposed in recent fights.
Zane picks Swanson because Quarantillo's pressure style is aging poorly and he has been getting hurt and finished in recent fights. He notes that Swanson still has solid boxing fundamentals and power, and that Quarantillo's wrestling is not good enough to control Swanson, who is active off his back. Zane believes Quarantillo's style is falling apart.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 0 | 62 of 111 | 55% | 90 of 140 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 67 of 147 | 45% | 70 of 151 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 0 | 20 of 31 | 64% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 18 of 35 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:27 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 0 | 30 of 51 | 58% | 48 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 31 of 70 | 44% | 33 of 73 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 62 of 111 | 55% | 43 of 86 | 7 of 11 | 12 of 14 | 53 of 101 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 67 of 147 | 45% | 49 of 118 | 13 of 22 | 5 of 7 | 52 of 126 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 20 of 31 | 64% | 9 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 9 | 18 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 18 of 42 | 42% | 12 of 31 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 36 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 12 of 29 | 41% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 18 of 35 | 51% | 14 of 29 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 30 of 51 | 58% | 23 of 41 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 44 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 31 of 70 | 44% | 23 of 58 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 61 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Fili but is not confident due to his recent knockout losses. He notes that Fili is younger and faster, but his chin is questionable. Cody believes Fili's volume and wrestling could give him an edge, but acknowledges that Swanson is a fan favorite who often gets close decisions. He warns that Fili needs to finish Swanson to avoid a controversial decision loss.
Daniel is picking Swanson as a plus 210 underdog, citing Swanson's path to victory via knockout and his strong performance against Hakim Dawodu at similar odds. He notes that Fili is hot and cold and can be chinned. He envisions a retirement moment for Swanson where he knocks out Fili and puts his gloves down in the Octagon.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host picks Fili to win on the scorecards, but criticizes the -260 line as too high, saying Fili should be closer to -150 or -180. He expects a competitive striking battle that goes to decision, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds at -110. He notes Swanson is a live underdog at +210.
Paul picks Swanson, citing his experience and durability. He notes that Swanson has a history of winning close decisions and that Fili has been knocked out recently. Paul believes Swanson's volume and toughness will be key, and that he can win a decision or even catch Fili with a knockout. He also mentions that Swanson is a fan favorite, which may help in a close fight.
The Guru picks Andre Fili over Cub Swanson. He believes Fili is bigger, stronger, and more explosive at this stage. He notes Swanson's age (40) and size disadvantage. He likes Fili's low kicks and thinks he can finish Swanson by TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 77 of 156 | 49% | 107 of 195 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 0 | 95 of 176 | 53% | 129 of 224 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 23 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 0 | 29 of 56 | 51% | 29 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Cub Swanson | 0 | 28 of 51 | 54% | 52 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 0 | 29 of 55 | 52% | 48 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 3 | Cub Swanson | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 32 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 0 | 37 of 65 | 56% | 52 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:50 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 77 of 156 | 49% | 41 of 112 | 27 of 31 | 9 of 13 | 59 of 135 | 18 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 95 of 176 | 53% | 41 of 104 | 29 of 37 | 25 of 35 | 79 of 158 | 16 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 23 of 42 | 54% | 11 of 25 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 7 | 23 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 29 of 56 | 51% | 9 of 28 | 8 of 9 | 12 of 19 | 29 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cub Swanson | 28 of 51 | 54% | 19 of 42 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 39 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 29 of 55 | 52% | 13 of 33 | 10 of 13 | 6 of 9 | 20 of 44 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cub Swanson | 26 of 63 | 41% | 11 of 45 | 11 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 18 of 54 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 37 of 65 | 56% | 19 of 43 | 11 of 15 | 7 of 7 | 30 of 58 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dawodu based on age and speed, noting Swanson looked old in his last fight. He acknowledges Swanson could win via takedowns and decision, but leans Dawodu.
Big Brady picks Hakeem Dawodu to knock out Cub Swanson in the second round. He notes Swanson's age (39) and recent durability issues, especially in the Jonathan Martinez fight where he was hurt to the head, body, and legs. He believes Dawodu's mixing of strikes will wear down Swanson and lead to a finish. He expects this to be Swanson's retirement fight.
Cody is torn on this fight. He notes Cub Swanson is nearing 40 and coming off a brutal loss to Jonathan Martinez, but also has a history of pulling off upsets. He criticizes Hakeem Dawodu's low output and lack of finishing ability, but acknowledges Cub's age and damage. He ultimately decides to pass on betting, saying he has other underdogs he prefers.
James picks Dawodu, believing Swanson is past his prime. He thinks Dawodu is the better striker now with better durability, though he notes Dawodu's chin is questionable. James sees little path for Swanson to win, as he doesn't think Swanson can grapple or out-strike Dawodu. He mentions Swanson could land a knockout due to his unorthodox style, but overall favors Dawodu clearly.
Dawodu is a technical striker who uses combination striking and kicks. Swanson is 40 and on a 3-6 run over his last nine, with wins over sketchy competition. Dawodu should land the more impactful strikes and get the nod from judges. However, Swanson's unorthodox style could make it closer than the odds suggest.
Paul picks Cub Swanson but with low confidence. He thinks the line is accurate and would prefer Dawodu at a better price. He sees Cub having a puncher's chance and notes that if Dawodu fights at his usual low volume, Cub could outwork him and eke out a decision. However, he admits he's not confident and has other underdogs he'd rather bet.
The MMA Guru picks Hakeem Dawodu over Cub Swanson, citing Swanson's accumulated damage and small size for featherweight. He notes Dawodu's strength and clinch work, predicting he will hurt Swanson to the body with knees and get a finish in the third round. He references Swanson's past body-shot losses to Tatsuya Kawajiri and Max Holloway.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Martinez | 0 | 51 of 79 | 64% | 60 of 88 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Cub Swanson | 2 | 62 of 102 | 60% | 66 of 106 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 3:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Martinez | 0 | 31 of 50 | 62% | 38 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Cub Swanson | 1 | 33 of 59 | 55% | 35 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:16 | |
| 2 | Jonathan Martinez | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 22 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cub Swanson | 1 | 29 of 43 | 67% | 31 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Martinez | 51 of 79 | 64% | 10 of 35 | 9 of 10 | 32 of 34 | 48 of 73 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
| Cub Swanson | 62 of 102 | 60% | 40 of 77 | 15 of 18 | 7 of 7 | 37 of 64 | 12 of 14 | 13 of 24 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Martinez | 31 of 50 | 62% | 5 of 23 | 5 of 6 | 21 of 21 | 29 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Cub Swanson | 33 of 59 | 55% | 21 of 45 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 39 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 14 | |
| 2 | Jonathan Martinez | 20 of 29 | 68% | 5 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 13 | 19 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 29 of 43 | 67% | 19 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 10 |
Angelo leans Cub Swanson, citing his experience, fight IQ, and still-solid chin. He notes that Jonathan Martinez has holes in his game, particularly handling pressure, and that Cub can exploit that in a technical kickboxing match. However, he is not highly confident and calls it a tough pick, acknowledging Martinez's power and recent wins.
Big Brady picks Cub Swanson for the upset by first-round knockout. He notes that Swanson has looked phenomenal lately, has power and volume, while Martinez has a questionable chin (knocked down multiple times). He thinks Swanson's pressure and hard shots will be too much, but says he'll check the weigh-ins to see if Swanson looks drained from the weight cut. He calls it a super close fight.
Cody leans Martinez for the pick but is more confident in the under 2.5 rounds at +130. He notes Cub Swanson still fights with hands down and chin up, and while he has power, Martinez is faster and more technical. He expects violence in a small cage and thinks the fight ends early.
Connor picks Martinez, citing the age and weight cut concerns for Swanson. He notes that Martinez's range kicking game could cause problems for Swanson, and that Swanson's tendency to struggle against range strikers is a factor. He admits it's a coin flip but goes with the younger, established bantamweight.
Swanson is a live underdog at +165 due to his unorthodox striking and power, which could expose Martinez's chin. Martinez is a good striker with kicks and combinations, but he has shown he can be hurt. Swanson's experience and ability to crack opponents make this competitive. However, the weight cut to 135 pounds is a concern; the host wants to see how Swanson looks at weigh-ins before committing. Prediction is Swanson by knockout.
Paul is tempted by Cub Swanson as a live underdog, especially since the fight is at bantamweight, a new weight class for Swanson. He questions Martinez's chin and weight cut issues, noting Martinez has been dropped before and struggled at 135. He thinks Swanson's power and pace could break Martinez if it becomes a scrap.
The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez over his favorite fighter Cub Swanson, citing momentum and Martinez's age (28) as key factors. He notes that Swanson is moving down to bantamweight, which often leads to poor performances initially. He praises Martinez's leg kicks and slick striking, and predicts a body finish due to Swanson's weaker torso at the new weight.
Zane picks Swanson, reasoning that if he would pick Swanson at featherweight, he has to still pick him at bantamweight despite the weight cut concerns. He believes Swanson's aggression and ability to punish Martinez's poor defense on the back foot will be key. He acknowledges the risk but trusts Swanson's veteran savvy.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 2 of 19 | 10% | 5 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 2 of 19 | 10% | 5 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 18 of 30 | 60% | 16 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Darren Elkins | 2 of 19 | 10% | 2 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 18 of 30 | 60% | 16 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Darren Elkins | 2 of 19 | 10% | 2 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Darren Elkins, citing the constant threat of takedowns and grinding pressure. He believes Elkins can make the fight ugly and frustrate Swanson, who is the better all-around fighter but needs to keep it standing. Angelo notes that Elkins has power in his hands but his clear path is grappling. He placed a moneyline bet on Elkins because the odds were too good at +170, thinking it should be closer to a pick'em.
Big Brady picks Cub Swanson by decision, citing his striking advantage (higher volume, accuracy, defense) and improved takedown defense in recent fights. He notes Elkins' low striking accuracy and believes Swanson can keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Elkins' grappling but thinks Swanson's takedown defense has improved enough to avoid trouble.
Cody picks Swanson but doesn't like the -200 price. He thinks Swanson's superior footwork and striking technique will allow him to box up Elkins on the feet. He notes that Elkins needs takedowns to win, and Swanson's takedown defense (60% career) might be enough. Cody suggests taking Swanson by decision at +150 instead of the moneyline, as he believes Swanson is unlikely to finish Elkins.
Daniel Levi picks Cub Swanson but admits he is sketched out by Elkins's comeback ability. He believes Swanson will dominate the striking early, using his speed, kicks, and explosiveness. However, Levi worries that if Elkins gets top position or takes Swanson's back, he could submit him. He references Jeremy Stephens's blueprint of keeping the fight standing and busting Elkins up, which Swanson can follow. Levi expects Swanson to win a decision, possibly 30-27, but acknowledges the risk of Elkins pulling off a submission.
Jacob picks Cub Swanson, his favorite fighter, and is very confident. He argues that Swanson is the better all-around fighter and equally tough. Jacob believes Swanson will dominate the fight, noting that Swanson looked great in his last win and that Elkins' wins come from out-toughing opponents, but nobody out-toughs Swanson. He thinks the odds are fair and that Swanson will win.
The host picks Swanson by KO, citing the striking disparity and Elkins' declining reactions. He believes Swanson will tee off on Elkins and finish him. He likes the KO prop at +250 and also parlayed Swanson moneyline with Barcelos.
Paul is leaning towards Elkins as a dog, citing Elkins's incredible durability and never-quit attitude. He thinks Swanson may start fast but could fade, and Elkins's pressure and wrestling could take over. Paul plans to bet Elkins live if Swanson slows down, expecting a better number than +170. He calls it a 'dogger pass' situation pre-fight.
The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson to win by 29-28 decision. He notes Swanson has improved his grappling defense significantly, as shown in the second Edgar fight where he wasn't taken down. He thinks Swanson's stand-up advantage will be key and he won't gas out like other Elkins opponents. He expects a scrappy war but Swanson's veteran savvy will carry him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giga Chikadze | 1 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giga Chikadze | 1 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giga Chikadze | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Cub Swanson | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giga Chikadze | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Cub Swanson | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Our co-main event comes in the form of a striker’s delight at featherweight between the old guard of Swanson (27-11, 12-7 UFC) against the relatively young gun in Chikadze (12-2, 5-0 UFC). Whether this is a passing of the torch or a reminder that there is still something left in the tank, referee Jason Herzog will oversee the affair. There is no touch of gloves, as Chikadze begins his fight with a few kicks. Swanson looks to close the distance early, and he walks through a few kicks to reach out with a big overhand right. The Georgia circles away on the outside, and he gets off a right hand that makes Swanson take a few steps back.
The kickboxer slings a high kick and sneaks out a left hand, and he releases a thunderous body kick he titles his “Giga Kick” that slams square into Swanson’s liver. The longtime vet’s typically stoic expression contorts in pain as he backs away and falls to his knees. Swanson looks to reach out for any sort of desperation shot or leg grab, but Chikadze slips his leg out and starts pounding away.
It does not take more than a few punches for Herzog to call the fight off, and Georgian fighters have now stolen the night by winning across the board. This is our first official finish of the night – the Markos fight was a disqualification that ended by a foul – and the first time Swanson has been knocked out since Jose Aldo’s fateful double flying knee in 2009.
The Official Result
Giga Chikadze def. Cub Swanson R1 1:03 via TKO (Body Kick and Punches)
Big Brady picks Giga Chikadze to win a close decision, but he is hesitant and hates the line. He acknowledges Chikadze's improvements, especially in takedown defense and striking output, as seen in the Morales fight. However, he notes that Swanson is durable and on a roll, and that Chikadze has been taken down in the past. Brady thinks the line should be closer and that Swanson could be live if he wrestles more, but he ultimately goes with Chikadze's flashier strikes.
Cody sees Cub Swanson as a live underdog with many variables in his favor: savvy veteran experience, ground game advantage, and a history of performing well as an underdog. He notes that Swanson has a BJJ black belt and wrestling advantage, and that Giga has not faced a grappler who actually uses their ground game. However, he is concerned that Giga is tall for the division and a tricky striker, and that Swanson needs to use his wrestling to win. He labels this a 'dogger pass' situation and mentions DraftKings still has +160 available.
Daniel Levi picks Giga Chikadze to win, emphasizing that Chikadze is a superior striker with better range and footwork. He believes Cub Swanson's style of swinging big hooks plays into Chikadze's straight shots down the middle. Levi also notes that Swanson's recent win over Pineda is overrated and that Chikadze's cardio held up in his last fight.
The host picks Giga Chikadze by decision, citing his striking advantage and reach. He expects Giga to fight safe and outpoint Swanson, who may look for takedowns. He notes that Swanson is a veteran but believes Giga's kicking game will be too much.
Paul does not have a strong lean on this fight. He notes that Giga has been given favorable matchups and that Swanson has the ground game advantage, but he is not confident enough to make a pick. He mentions that the action is coming in on Swanson and that he can understand why, but he doesn't commit to a side.
The MMA Guru picks Giga Chikadze over Cub Swanson, citing Chikadze's size advantage, reach, and improving MMA skills. He notes that Swanson is a natural bantamweight and took damage in his last fight against Daniel Pineda. He predicts Chikadze will chop at Swanson's legs and jab his way to a 30-27 unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 2 | 46 of 66 | 69% | 51 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 40 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 1 | 31 of 47 | 65% | 34 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 35 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Cub Swanson | 1 | 15 of 19 | 78% | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 46 of 66 | 69% | 35 of 51 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 37 of 54 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 9 |
| Daniel Pineda | 21 of 45 | 46% | 9 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 13 | 19 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 31 of 47 | 65% | 23 of 36 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 23 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 8 |
| Daniel Pineda | 16 of 30 | 53% | 6 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 10 | 14 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cub Swanson | 15 of 19 | 78% | 12 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Daniel Pineda | 5 of 15 | 33% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Daniel Pineda to win by first-round submission. He highlights Pineda's 100% finish rate (27 wins all finishes) and Swanson's history of being submitted six times. He likes Pineda's recent form and believes he is in his prime, while Swanson is past his prime and coming off injury. He recommends betting Pineda inside the distance at +140.
Daniel is impressed with Pineda's resurgence, noting his 29 finishes and recent dominant performances. He questions Cub Swanson's level of competition and thinks Swanson is on his way out. He predicts Pineda will catch Cub with a submission, possibly his 20th submission win.
Pineda's wrestling and top pressure will be a nightmare for Swanson, who has struggled with grapplers. Pineda should be able to take Swanson down repeatedly and finish him via ground and pound or submission. Swanson's recent losses have come via submission, and Pineda's style matches up well. The under 2.5 rounds is a good prop.
The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson, despite the long layoff due to injury. He believes Swanson's experience against good jiu-jitsu guys and his stand-up will be the difference. He expects Swanson to keep the fight standing and win a unanimous decision. He dismisses Daniel Pineda's wins as unimpressive and notes Pineda's past PED issues.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!