vs
-500 +470
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025 · Catchweight (188 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 Next Fight
Age 31
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 30
Height 6' 3"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Marco Tulio
6.69 SLpM
58.0% Str. Acc.
2.58 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
1.42 TD Avg
26.0% TD Acc.
0.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Ihor Potieria
4.44 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
4.96 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.73 TD Avg
18.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Marco Tulio
Moneyline
FanDuel -500
KO/TKO
DraftKings -165
Submission
BetMGM +550
Decision
BetMGM +400
Ihor Potieria
Moneyline
DraftKings +470
KO/TKO
BetWay +1100
Submission
BetWay +2000
Decision
BetRivers +1050
Marco Tulio - Fight History
LOSS vs Roman Kopylov
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 328 · May 09, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Kopylov 3 61 of 124 49% 69 of 132 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:34
Marco Tulio 0 62 of 160 38% 80 of 178 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Kopylov 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marco Tulio 0 22 of 61 36% 22 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Roman Kopylov 1 22 of 44 50% 23 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Marco Tulio 0 26 of 57 45% 36 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Roman Kopylov 2 24 of 41 58% 31 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:49
Marco Tulio 0 14 of 42 33% 22 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Kopylov 61 of 124 49% 46 of 97 12 of 17 3 of 10 46 of 102 4 of 5 11 of 17
Marco Tulio 62 of 160 38% 28 of 105 18 of 34 16 of 21 62 of 159 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Kopylov 15 of 39 38% 6 of 22 7 of 10 2 of 7 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marco Tulio 22 of 61 36% 7 of 37 8 of 14 7 of 10 22 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Roman Kopylov 22 of 44 50% 19 of 38 2 of 4 1 of 2 16 of 32 0 of 0 6 of 12
Marco Tulio 26 of 57 45% 11 of 37 7 of 11 8 of 9 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Roman Kopylov 24 of 41 58% 21 of 37 3 of 3 0 of 1 15 of 31 4 of 5 5 of 5
Marco Tulio 14 of 42 33% 10 of 31 3 of 9 1 of 2 14 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tulio (-198), Kopylov (+164)

Round 1
It is a battle between two finish-first middleweights to move things along, with the loser dropping to a .500 record with the organization. The victor between Kopylov (14-5, 6-5 UFC) and Tulio (14-2, 2-1 UFC) will earn their first win in over a year. Referee Gasper Oliver will be there every step of the way, including the sporting glove touch he watches to open things up.
Both men flirt with out-of-range strikes to get in on one another, and it is Tulio who lands first with a sweeping low kick. Kopylov walks him down but is not ready to engage yet, so Tulio jams him up with a body shot. Kopylov offers up his own calf kick, answered immediately by the Brazilian. Kopylov parries an overhand right and rips a kick to the ribs. Tulio jabs his way forward, following with one to the stomach and just evading an overhand right. Tulio chews up the front leg with kicks that form a welt on his foe’s front leg. Tulio keeps working the calf, and he keeps his hands up when Kopylov storms him with four punches that largely careen off his gloves and arms.
Tulio snaps the head back with a long right hand, and he reaches another to the body as Kopylov retreats. Kopylov comes up short with a high kick, and he lunges out with a left hand but is met with a stern right to the ribs. Tulio sneaks a head kick behind it, and Kopylov tanks it and plods forward. Kopylov retaliates with a body shot, but it is one-and-done as Tulio parries a high kick after it. Kopylov drives a one-two down the middle, one that might have knocked out small fry he faced in the past but is not nearly enough to get more than Tulio’s attention. Kopylov leaps with a knee, and Tulio pushes him to the side and belts him with a few punches before the conclusion of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tulio
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tulio
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tulio

Round 2
They touch gloves to get going again, flashing their jabs in alternating stances. Kopylov drills Tulio with a check hook as Tulio is about to come in, and the Brazilian wears it well and is back to working the front leg before long. Kopylov lashes out with a one-two, seemingly getting the time of the advancing Brazilian and timing his explosions well. Tulio goes to the body and head, and Kopylov is quick to counter. Kopylov drills a kick to the side that lands with an audible thud, and hands are subsequently traded. Tulio kicks out the lead leg as Kopylov is about to throw, and he wings a head kick on the other side. Kopylov starts to leak from a wound on his right cheek, but he pays it no mind as he wants to throw hands. He slips on the way in, and dances away when Tulio spins but does not let anything go after it.
Tulio rifles off a right hand down Broadway, and his left hand opens up the cut on Kopylov’s face much more. There is another gash on Kopylov’s eyebrow, and he transforms to a horror movie as blood streams down his face. Tulio is able to take advantage of the damage and snaps out a hard right hand, but he walks directly into the inferno that is suddenly raging inside of Kopylov. Kopylov unleashes a pair of fiery fists that knock Tulio off his feet. Kopylov chases after the Brazilian, who is able to get back to his feet, and swings his way into a clinch. Rather than doing more damage or ending the fight, Kopylov just holds on until the conclusion of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov

Round 3
The 185ers touch gloves to get going, and Kopylov goes hellbent for leather as soon as Oliver says go. Blasting Tulio in the face with a short but devastating combination, he hurts and knocks the Brazilian down at the end of a vicious left hand early on. As he plans on punishing Tulio further, Kopylov elects to take the fight down. Completing a solid double-leg takedown, Kopylov grounds Tulio, but he just holds him there again. Tulio slowly, methodically works back to his feet without absorbing much more offense, and he starts to stalk Kopylov again.
Tulio jabs at the wound on Kopylov’s face, planting a kick on his ribs and eating a left hand over the top for his effort. Kopylov stands firm when Tulio engages, forcing the Brazilian to backpedal after a trio of punches come flying. Tulio jabs the stomach with the ball of his foot outstretched, and his head kick comes up just short. They trade hands, with Kopylov getting the better of the exchanges. Tulio spins to let go with a back kick, and Kopylov keeps him honest with a body kick and head kick. Tulio swings his fists to turn into a back fist, and he slugs Kopylov in the face with a big overhand right but cannot put him down as the buzzer sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)

The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Marco Tulio via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Angelo picks Marco Tulio, noting he is more well-rounded and can wrestle if needed. He thinks Tulio will shoot takedowns after being knocked out in his last fight. He mentions Tulio's grappling success against Yorsy Baraguri. He has doubts about Tulio's chin but expects him to use wrestling to avoid striking exchanges. He is fairly confident in this pick.

"Marco is going to be the pick. And I'm actually fairly confident in that."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Angelo picks Marco Tulio because he has more ways to win, including grappling. He notes that Tulio has good wrestling and can take the fight to the ground if needed, while Roman Kopylov has no backup plan. He acknowledges that Kopylov is a good striker but believes Tulio's versatility will be the difference.

"Marco's going to be the pick. He has more ways to win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Big Brady picks Marco Tulio, noting Kopylov's recent lack of output and willingness. He acknowledges Kopylov could knock out Tulio, but trusts Tulio's volume and grappling upside. Brady predicts Tulio wins by decision, as Kopylov is tough and has never been knocked out, but Tulio should outwork him.

"I'm going Tulio here. I'm actually going to go Tulio by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Cody picks Tulio, citing his volume and Kopylov's tendency to be outworked. He notes Tulio's high output and Kopylov's complacency. Cody expects Tulio to win by decision.

"I got Tulio. Tulio's got good volume."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Connor also picks Kopylov, agreeing that Tulio lacks the sophistication to exploit Kopylov's weaknesses. He notes that the guys who beat Kopylov (Rodriguez, Costa) did so with diligent positional work, which Tulio doesn't have. Connor expects Tulio to look like he's winning for stretches, but Kopylov's power and counter-striking will eventually pay off.

Tulio opened at +190, now -190; Kopylov opened at -225, now +165.
"I don't think Tulio has the sophistication for it."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Marco Tulio

Daniel picks Tulio, noting his confidence and edge on the mat despite a recent knockout loss. He believes Tulio will stand and bang and has a big advantage if he gets the fight to the ground.

"I'mma come in on uh Marco Tulio. Listen, I know he's coming off a knockout loss, but he seems to me like one of these guys that is going to stand and bang until the day he dies. He's not …"
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Confident picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Marco Tulio

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 2. Tulio is a powerful striker (6.69 SLpM, 58% accuracy) with KO wins in two of his three UFC fights, while Kopylov has lost three of his last four and has been knocked out multiple times. Kopylov's takedown defense (88%) is excellent, but he tends to fade in striking exchanges (5.18 SApM). Tulio's pressure and power should be too much for Kopylov, who has a tendency to get hit. Expect Tulio to land a knockout in the first two rounds.

Tulio by KO/TKO +200
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Jacob disagrees strongly, arguing that Kopylov is the better wrestler and that Marco Tulio cannot wrestle him. He points out that Gregory Rodriguez, a high-level wrestler, struggled to take Kopylov down. Jacob believes Kopylov is the more dangerous striker and durable, and that he should be the favorite. He likes the value on Kopylov as a dog.

"I love roping copy in this spot. Like I think he probably should be the favorite."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Lucrative James leans towards Marco Tulio because he believes Tulio has a grappling advantage and better cardio. He notes that Kopylov has a history of low volume and gassing out, while Tulio mixes in wrestling and has more paths to victory. He predicts Tulio wins by knockout, though he acknowledges the fight is close and could go either way.

"I will pick Marco Tulio to win the fight. ... I'll predict him to win it via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The host picks Kopylov as an underdog, believing he is the better striker and has the grappling to handle Tulio. He notes that Tulio is overhyped and hittable, and coming off a knockout loss may affect his confidence. He expects Kopylov to counter Tulio's forward pressure and potentially get a knockout. He acknowledges Kopylov's recent losses but sees this as a favorable matchup.

"I'm going to go Copelov. I think Copelov pulls off the upset and I think he even gets the knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Paul leans Tulio but does not love laying chalk. He agrees with Cody's assessment but is not fully confident.

"That's kind of my thought, but don't necessarily love laying chalk on Tulio this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

The MMA Guru picks Marco Tulio, citing Kopylov's recent poor performances against Paulo Costa and Gregory Rodriguez where he shut down after getting hit. He believes Tulio's pressure and momentum will lead to a TKO in round two. He notes Tulio's wins over Tong Gore and Usman Belgui show his finishing ability.

TKO win in round two
"I'm going to go with Marco to Leo getting a TKO win here in round two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Zane picks Kopylov hesitantly. He notes that Kopylov has become a better counter striker and has shown he can solve pressure fighters, as seen in the Curtis fight. However, Kopylov is terrible going backwards and could struggle if Tulio pressures effectively. Zane thinks Tulio's predictability and lack of sophistication will allow Kopylov to find openings, but it's a tough call.

Tulio opened at +190, now -190; Kopylov opened at -225, now +165. Odds shifting due to Kopylov's recent losses.
"I guess I'll take Kopylov."
KO R2 3:20 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Christian Leroy Duncan 1 23 of 46 50% 40 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:10
Marco Tulio 0 27 of 57 47% 42 of 75 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Christian Leroy Duncan 0 8 of 18 44% 13 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:01
Marco Tulio 0 8 of 17 47% 15 of 25 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:31
2 Christian Leroy Duncan 1 15 of 28 53% 27 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Marco Tulio 0 19 of 40 47% 27 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Christian Leroy Duncan 23 of 46 50% 11 of 27 3 of 7 9 of 12 20 of 43 1 of 1 2 of 2
Marco Tulio 27 of 57 47% 13 of 36 3 of 7 11 of 14 22 of 49 5 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Christian Leroy Duncan 8 of 18 44% 3 of 8 1 of 4 4 of 6 7 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marco Tulio 8 of 17 47% 2 of 9 1 of 2 5 of 6 6 of 13 2 of 4 0 of 0
2 Christian Leroy Duncan 15 of 28 53% 8 of 19 2 of 3 5 of 6 13 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1
Marco Tulio 19 of 40 47% 11 of 27 2 of 5 6 of 8 16 of 36 3 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Marco Tulio
BETTING PREVIEW | ODDS : Tulio (-190); Duncan (+160)

Round 1
Knockout rates of 70% or higher for these two middleweights means that referee Mark Smith will need to be ready at a moment’s notice. Of the two men setting foot in the cage next, Duncan (12-2, 5-2 UFC) has earned a higher stoppage rate but has fewer overall wins inside the distance compared to Chute Boxe Diego Lima product Tulio (14-1, 2-0 UFC). Smith steps back after clocking the athletes in, allowing them to tap gloves before engaging.
Duncan has his hands down as he moves to the center of the cage, offering a pair of stomp kicks and a sudden jump knee. Tulio scoots out of the way and drills the lead leg of the Brit several times. Duncan throws back with his own hard calf kick, and he spins with an elbow that splits Tulio’s forehead open. Tulio quickly ties him up to prevent his dynamic offense from coming forth, and he trips Duncan and puts him on his seat. Tulio smothers from on top, imposing his weight as Duncan turns to his knees. Tulio tries to spin on the break, but Duncan bails on it and swings for the bleachers. Tulio throws back hammers, and Duncan crashes forward and blasts him in the face with an overhand right. He spins with a back elbow, and it skims the top of the head as Tulio clinches him.
Tulio squeezes on Duncan against the wire while his fingers are hooked in the chain links, allowing him to sneakily hold Duncan until Duncan explodes to turn him around. Shoulder strikes from Duncan land with audible thuds, and he tries to trip Tulio out like Tulio got him before. Tulio redirects his effort and nearly gets off his own, but he lets it go so he can elbow the Brit in the face. The two split apart, and Duncan runs at the Brazilian with his foot flying. Duncan’s subsequent spinning wheel kick allows Tulio to bowl him over to the mat. Duncan twists before a choke can materialize, and he stands up and lifts Tulio to slam him down with 30 seconds left in the round. Duncan puts himself in side control and then relocates himself to full mount, where he elbows Tulio on the side of the head and rides out back control when Tulio turns until the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Duncan
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Duncan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Duncan

Round 2
The middleweights touch gloves, and then let go simultaneous low kicks that results in their shins clashing. Duncan circles around, flustering the Brazilian with a varied offense that range from flying kicks to spinning strikes and haymakers that could knock down a building. Tulio settles himself down and pierces the pocket with a right hand that cuts Duncan’s left eye. Tulio walks Duncan down with constant pressure and lays into him, keeping him from getting off much wild offense. Duncan still manages to get going, pawing at his bloodied eye and lashing out with swinging fists until the two result clinched up against the wall. Tulio wants to take the fight down, and Duncan stonewalls him. Tulio stays tightly pressed on his man while letting go with short strikes, and Smith is watching on as they break apart.
Duncan’s immediate offense results in another quick tie-up, and Tulio’s first effort to throw the Brit down fails. They offer alternating jabs, and Duncan spins with a back fist and slips when resetting.
Duncan sees the success of the blow and stutter-steps to delay firing off another spinning back fist. The strike connects square on Tulio’s nose, sending him staggering back. Duncan knows his man is in trouble and walks him down with a fierce, straight left and a monstrous right that completely deprives Tulio of all of his senses. Tulio slumps to the mat, already unconscious, but Smith is still trying to get between them.
This allows Duncan to hammer down one final, devastating right hand while Tulio is off dreaming, to fully punctuate the contest. Tulio lays on his stomach lifelessly for a seemingly long time, until medical professionals tend to him and he revives. The triumphant Duncan has reached rarified air, becoming one of a small number of athletes to record multiple stoppage wins in the Octagon by spinning strikes. He joins names like Dennis Siver, Molly McCann and the upcoming Muslin Salikhov, in having achieved this spin-related feat.

The Official Result
Christian Leroy Duncan def. Marco Tulio R2 3:20 via KO (Spinning Back Fist and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Angelo picks Marco Tulio, stating he is better everywhere. He believes Marco's takedown defense will be good enough to keep the fight standing, and that Christian Leroy Duncan will resort to takedowns too late after getting touched up. He is surprisingly confident given the line.

"Marco Tulio is going to be the pick here. I'm surprisingly confident in it considering this line, but I'm going with Marco Tulio. I think he's just literally better everywhere."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marco Tulio

Big Brady leans toward Tulio, noting his incredible striking volume and wrestling/grappling upside. He worries about Tulio's hittability and past knockout loss, but thinks Duncan is KO or bust. He predicts Tulio wins comfortably on the scorecards if Duncan doesn't land a knockout.

decision
"Give me Tulio. Tio by decision in what should be another pretty fun fight."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Cody picks Tulio, citing his high volume and pressure. He thinks Duncan's lack of volume and tendency to clinch will be neutralized, and Tulio will outwork him.

"I think Tulio probably does outwork him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Lucrative James picks Marco Tulio, citing his higher ceiling and more vicious striking. He notes Tulio's offensive output and grappling upside, while criticizing Christian Leroy Duncan's lackluster performances against top competition. He acknowledges Tulio's hand injury but believes he has recovered. He expects Tulio to win, though not dominate.

"I'm going to go with Marco Tulio. You know, I think that his ceiling is a lot higher than Christian Leroy Duncan."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Christian Leroy Duncan

The host disagrees with the betting public favoring Tulio, believing Duncan is the better striker with good clinch strength. He expects Duncan to wear Tulio down and eventually land a big shot for a knockout.

Knockout
"I think Duncan will showcase that Tulio is a little bit overrated at this stage. I think Duncan will be the better striker, showcase good strength inside the clinch, really wearing Tulio down."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Paul picks Tulio, noting his volume and pressure. He thinks Duncan's durability is fine but Tulio's pace will be too much, and the fight likely goes over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds
"I'm going to side with Tulio on just basically staying way busier."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

The Guru picks Marco Tulio over Christian Leroy Duncan. He believes Tulio has more natural pop in his punches and a better flow state, while Duncan relies on flashy techniques. He expects a close fight with Tulio landing the more significant shots and winning a hard-fought decision.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to go with a hardfought decision to Marco Leo."
WIN vs Tresean Gore
KO R2 3:16 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tresean Gore 0 17 of 60 28% 17 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Marco Tulio 2 127 of 175 72% 140 of 195 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tresean Gore 0 13 of 39 33% 13 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Marco Tulio 1 77 of 110 70% 84 of 117 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Tresean Gore 0 4 of 21 19% 4 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marco Tulio 1 50 of 65 76% 56 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tresean Gore 17 of 60 28% 10 of 47 3 of 5 4 of 8 17 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marco Tulio 127 of 175 72% 74 of 120 40 of 42 13 of 13 118 of 161 4 of 4 5 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tresean Gore 13 of 39 33% 10 of 33 1 of 2 2 of 4 13 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marco Tulio 77 of 110 70% 45 of 76 25 of 27 7 of 7 72 of 104 4 of 4 1 of 2
2 Tresean Gore 4 of 21 19% 0 of 14 2 of 3 2 of 4 4 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marco Tulio 50 of 65 76% 29 of 44 15 of 15 6 of 6 46 of 57 0 of 0 4 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tresean Gore vs. Marco Tulio
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tulio (-355), Gore (+280)

Round 1
Carrying on with the prelims, two aggressive middleweights with finish rates above 75% will duel under the oversight of referee Marc Goddard. Gore (5-2, 2-2 UFC) has only fought once since late 2022, and he will have the honor of welcoming Norma Dumont’s partner Tulio (13-1, 1-0 UFC) to his sophomore UFC appearance. Fists are sure to fly, but before they do, they are tapped together sportingly. Tulio springs to the side to fire off a few jabs and low kicks, and he mixes in a front kick to keep Gore guessing early. Gore swings back, and Tulio takes a step back to wing a spinning back kick. Tulio puts out a one-two, and Gore defends the punches but not the kick that follows and bumps into his cup. Goddard acknowledges the foul, and Gore waves it off and wants to keep throwing leather. Tulio jumps at him with a flying knee, and Gore times him with a marvelous right hand nearly as destructive as Fedor Emelianenko against Andrei Arlovski. Tulio continues to chain big punches and kicks into spinning strikes, and Gore is in close range to prevent the spins from getting to him. The power from the Brazilian mark Gore’s nose up, and he loads up further on power strikes including a trio of vertical elbows from the Anderson Silva playbook. Tulio keeps a high pace, and Gore walks through a few punches to zing a left hook that stumbles “Matuto.” When Gore tries to continue the assault, Tulio blasts him with an elbow that rocks and cuts him at the same time. Gore shakes out the cobwebs and marches Tulio down, and he adjusts his leaking hose as Tulio turns up the pressure. Tulio rips the body with a kick, and his constant jab is further frustrating Gore. Tulio drives home a few low kicks, and he puts together a unique combination with a liver kick, a flying knee and a spinning back kick. The Brazilian hammers his opponent with spinning strikes and huge punches, but it is a short left hook that floors Gore. “Mr. Vicious” scrambles to his feet, steels himself and smashes Tulio in the face with a vicious right hand. Tulio appears to be showing signs of fatigue with less than a minute to go in the round, and he gathers a full head of steam and rails Gore with a spinning wheel kick. Gore somehow tanks it, thanks to the wall behind him, and this absolutely mad round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tulio
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Tulio
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tulio

Round 2
Somehow, these two flamethrowers got out of the first round, and they are still in good spirits and touch gloves. They proceed to hammer one another on the lead leg, and Tulio follows one with a blistering body kick. Not to be outdone, Gore gives him the same kick back. Tulio prods out with a front kick, and he puts two low kicks behind it that draw a slight limp. Tulio splits the guard with a punch, plants a spinning back kick on the midsection and continues to work the head and body. Gore swings wildly, and Tulio slips it and puts a jab in his face. Tulio wraps a left around the guard, and right goes to the sternum. Tulio jams a front kick to the midsection, and the foot pounds squarely into the groin cup. Tulio apologizes as Gore groans, and Goddard calls time. Despite the impact of the kick, Gore only takes about 20 seconds before getting back to business. Tulio does not let him off the hook, continuing to chain punches, kick and spinning moves together much to Gore’s disappointment. Tulio splits the guard with an uppercut, and Gore’s chin is tough but he is taking serious damage. Tulio finally cracks the chin with a crisp head kick, and Gore hits his seat. Tulio jumps on top and unloads a salvo of elbows, and he pushes Gore flat to the ground to continue beating on him. Gore wills himself to stand up again, and he actually comes out swinging. The Brazilian rifles off a power jab, and Gore’s expression completely changes.
Tulio fires off a jumping switch kick, using it to close the distance, and he lands and plants a right hand about as firmly on the jaw as one can land. Gore’s legs give way beneath him, bloodied and broken, and he leans against the fence clinging to consciousness.
Goddard sprints towards the downed fighter to rescue him from his own toughness, but before he can reach the fallen man, Tulio gets off one single destructive punch to seal the deal. When Goddard gets between them, Tulio informs his corner that his hand broke in the first round. It held up long enough to put on a thriller of a performance, one easily worthy of “Fight of the Night” with the first round in the conversation of “Round of the Year” after all that carnage. Middleweight has a new name to watch out for now.

The Official Result
Marco Tulio def. Tresean Gore R2 3:16 via TKO (Punch)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Marco Tulio

Daniel Levi notes that Marco Tulio stopped Tresean Gore in the second round after getting rocked earlier. He highlights the striking differential of 127 to 17 significant strikes and praises Tulio's confidence and dominance.

"Marco Tulio, went out there and stopped former NFC champion Tawn Gore in the second round. And man, they battled it out. Marco got rocked earlier and it was almost like, 'Oh yeah, you want to hit me like that?' …"
WIN vs Ihor Potieria
TKO (punches) R1 3:04 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marco Tulio 1 29 of 54 53% 34 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Ihor Potieria 0 6 of 15 40% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marco Tulio 1 29 of 54 53% 34 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Ihor Potieria 0 6 of 15 40% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marco Tulio 29 of 54 53% 20 of 41 5 of 7 4 of 6 17 of 37 1 of 1 11 of 16
Ihor Potieria 6 of 15 40% 2 of 8 1 of 2 3 of 5 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marco Tulio 29 of 54 53% 20 of 41 5 of 7 4 of 6 17 of 37 1 of 1 11 of 16
Ihor Potieria 6 of 15 40% 2 of 8 1 of 2 3 of 5 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ihor Potieria (188: Missed Weight) vs. Marco Tulio

Round 1
With the recent memory of a spinning back kick knockout to earn him a spot on the UFC roster, Tulio (12-1, 0-0 UFC) surges into what would have been a middleweight affair with plenty of momentum on his side. The same cannot be said for the struggling Potieria (20-7, 2-5 UFC), who has not only dropped four of five but missed weight ahead of what may be a pink-slip matchup. This bout now taking place at 188 pounds will be covered by referee Mark Smith, who is prepped and ready to jump in at a moment’s notice. Potieria offers an apologetic glove touch to get going, and it is accepted. The center of the cage goes to Potieria, who springs away from a low kick early. Tulio unleashes a one-two, and when that comes up short, his leg kick does not. Potieria absorbs a right hand to counter with a hook over the top, and it marks Tulio’s eye up fast. Potieria goes after a second power left hook, and Tulio’s footwork keeps him safe. Tulio chains a punch into a kick, and the two lean towards one another and clack their heads together. Smith calls time to warn them, and they are quick to resume after the warning with two punches from Tulio. Potieria ducks down, and he eats a particularly stern right hand. Tulio lines up another right as he backs away, and he steps in and blasts Potieria in the groin with a knee, drawing a sound that echoes in the arena. Potieria collapses to the mat and does not make a sound, as Smith pauses the fight and tells Potieria he will have five minutes to recover. Smith warns Tulio, and Potieria blows his nose while on one knee. After 90 seconds, Potieria climbs to his feet using the fence, and he tells Smith he does not need the doctor. Three minutes elapse before Potieria is good to go, and they start up again. Tulio is quick to strike again when resuming, with a head kick and standing back fist surprising the Ukrainian. Tulio cracks “The Duelist” with a right hand, and he puts Potieria down with a follow-up right. Potieria’s nose busted open with blood leaking fast. Potieria tries to get hold of an armbar off his back, and Tulio punches and elbows through it.
Potieria turns to his knees, and Tulio clubs him with a devastating undercut beneath his armpit that shuts his lights out. Smith witnesses that Potieria has been deprived of his consciousness and waved the fight off
, and a bloody, beaten Potieria comes to and coughs his mouthpiece out. This is a statement introduction for Tulio, whose performance is slightly marred for the earlier foul but sealed the deal with his fists.

The Official Result
Marco Tulio def. Ihor Potieria R1 3:04 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Angelo picks Marco Tulio, stating that the fight is set up for him to win. He notes Tulio's diverse striking and solid grappling, while Ihor Potieria is a kickboxer with poor takedown defense. He believes Tulio's wrestling and power will be enough, though he dislikes the -500 odds on a UFC debut. He expects Tulio to win, possibly via takedowns and ground control.

"Marco Tulio is going to be the pick minus 500 uh not great don't love that minus 500 on UFC debut don't love that but Marco Tulio is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Big Brady thinks Tulio is the better fighter overall, with more ways to win. He acknowledges Potieria has looked better than expected, even having moments against Bolat and Almeida, but still considers him bad. Brady notes Tulio can push Potieria against the cage, get takedowns, and is a better striker. He predicts Tulio wins by decision, though he thinks the line is too wide.

"I'm going tulo I'm going tulo to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Cody picks Potieria as a big underdog, arguing the line is inflated on Tulio. He notes Potieria's power, experience against tough competition, and improvements at 185. He believes Tulio is not a proven prospect and Potieria has a puncher's chance.

"dogger pass for me in this scenario going to be the dog absolutely no hisp being ehore this week"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Daniel highlights Tulio's confidence and ground game, noting he is nasty on the mat and trains at Shoot the Box. He thinks Potieria is better than his record shows but lacks confidence and is on a losing streak. He predicts Tulio will get the fight to the mat and finish quickly.

"I'm going go Marco Tulio here to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marco Tulio

This should be a chaotic matchup favoring Tulio, but not enough to justify -500 odds. The host lacks confidence to back Potieria either, but expects chaos and Tulio to win, probably by knockout.

by knockout
"I think that will see chaos erupt and I think we'll see the Brazilian come through and I think he wins this matchup probably by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Paul also picks Potieria, calling it a 'dogger pass' fight. He notes Tulio's unimpressive Contender Series performances and Potieria's ability to grapple a little. He expects a competitive striking match where Potieria can land.

"just plug your nose and take ehore man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

The Guru picks Tulio, calling him an underrated prospect with good standup and grappling. He notes Tulio's win over Yusri Belgar on the contender series and his momentum. He sympathizes with Potieria's tough career but thinks Tulio is the better fighter. He mentions Tulio trains at Shooter Box with Diego Lima and has a decent chin.

"I'm going to go of Marco too I think he's incredibly underrated"
Ihor Potieria - Fight History
LOSS vs Marco Tulio
TKO (punches) R1 3:04 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marco Tulio 1 29 of 54 53% 34 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Ihor Potieria 0 6 of 15 40% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marco Tulio 1 29 of 54 53% 34 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Ihor Potieria 0 6 of 15 40% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marco Tulio 29 of 54 53% 20 of 41 5 of 7 4 of 6 17 of 37 1 of 1 11 of 16
Ihor Potieria 6 of 15 40% 2 of 8 1 of 2 3 of 5 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marco Tulio 29 of 54 53% 20 of 41 5 of 7 4 of 6 17 of 37 1 of 1 11 of 16
Ihor Potieria 6 of 15 40% 2 of 8 1 of 2 3 of 5 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ihor Potieria (188: Missed Weight) vs. Marco Tulio

Round 1
With the recent memory of a spinning back kick knockout to earn him a spot on the UFC roster, Tulio (12-1, 0-0 UFC) surges into what would have been a middleweight affair with plenty of momentum on his side. The same cannot be said for the struggling Potieria (20-7, 2-5 UFC), who has not only dropped four of five but missed weight ahead of what may be a pink-slip matchup. This bout now taking place at 188 pounds will be covered by referee Mark Smith, who is prepped and ready to jump in at a moment’s notice. Potieria offers an apologetic glove touch to get going, and it is accepted. The center of the cage goes to Potieria, who springs away from a low kick early. Tulio unleashes a one-two, and when that comes up short, his leg kick does not. Potieria absorbs a right hand to counter with a hook over the top, and it marks Tulio’s eye up fast. Potieria goes after a second power left hook, and Tulio’s footwork keeps him safe. Tulio chains a punch into a kick, and the two lean towards one another and clack their heads together. Smith calls time to warn them, and they are quick to resume after the warning with two punches from Tulio. Potieria ducks down, and he eats a particularly stern right hand. Tulio lines up another right as he backs away, and he steps in and blasts Potieria in the groin with a knee, drawing a sound that echoes in the arena. Potieria collapses to the mat and does not make a sound, as Smith pauses the fight and tells Potieria he will have five minutes to recover. Smith warns Tulio, and Potieria blows his nose while on one knee. After 90 seconds, Potieria climbs to his feet using the fence, and he tells Smith he does not need the doctor. Three minutes elapse before Potieria is good to go, and they start up again. Tulio is quick to strike again when resuming, with a head kick and standing back fist surprising the Ukrainian. Tulio cracks “The Duelist” with a right hand, and he puts Potieria down with a follow-up right. Potieria’s nose busted open with blood leaking fast. Potieria tries to get hold of an armbar off his back, and Tulio punches and elbows through it.
Potieria turns to his knees, and Tulio clubs him with a devastating undercut beneath his armpit that shuts his lights out. Smith witnesses that Potieria has been deprived of his consciousness and waved the fight off
, and a bloody, beaten Potieria comes to and coughs his mouthpiece out. This is a statement introduction for Tulio, whose performance is slightly marred for the earlier foul but sealed the deal with his fists.

The Official Result
Marco Tulio def. Ihor Potieria R1 3:04 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Angelo picks Marco Tulio, stating that the fight is set up for him to win. He notes Tulio's diverse striking and solid grappling, while Ihor Potieria is a kickboxer with poor takedown defense. He believes Tulio's wrestling and power will be enough, though he dislikes the -500 odds on a UFC debut. He expects Tulio to win, possibly via takedowns and ground control.

"Marco Tulio is going to be the pick minus 500 uh not great don't love that minus 500 on UFC debut don't love that but Marco Tulio is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Big Brady thinks Tulio is the better fighter overall, with more ways to win. He acknowledges Potieria has looked better than expected, even having moments against Bolat and Almeida, but still considers him bad. Brady notes Tulio can push Potieria against the cage, get takedowns, and is a better striker. He predicts Tulio wins by decision, though he thinks the line is too wide.

"I'm going tulo I'm going tulo to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Cody picks Potieria as a big underdog, arguing the line is inflated on Tulio. He notes Potieria's power, experience against tough competition, and improvements at 185. He believes Tulio is not a proven prospect and Potieria has a puncher's chance.

"dogger pass for me in this scenario going to be the dog absolutely no hisp being ehore this week"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Daniel highlights Tulio's confidence and ground game, noting he is nasty on the mat and trains at Shoot the Box. He thinks Potieria is better than his record shows but lacks confidence and is on a losing streak. He predicts Tulio will get the fight to the mat and finish quickly.

"I'm going go Marco Tulio here to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marco Tulio

This should be a chaotic matchup favoring Tulio, but not enough to justify -500 odds. The host lacks confidence to back Potieria either, but expects chaos and Tulio to win, probably by knockout.

by knockout
"I think that will see chaos erupt and I think we'll see the Brazilian come through and I think he wins this matchup probably by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Paul also picks Potieria, calling it a 'dogger pass' fight. He notes Tulio's unimpressive Contender Series performances and Potieria's ability to grapple a little. He expects a competitive striking match where Potieria can land.

"just plug your nose and take ehore man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

The Guru picks Tulio, calling him an underrated prospect with good standup and grappling. He notes Tulio's win over Yusri Belgar on the contender series and his momentum. He sympathizes with Potieria's tough career but thinks Tulio is the better fighter. He mentions Tulio trains at Shooter Box with Diego Lima and has a decent chin.

"I'm going to go of Marco too I think he's incredibly underrated"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
César Almeida 0 57 of 113 50% 78 of 137 0 of 2 0% 1 1 2:15
Ihor Potieria 0 44 of 89 49% 57 of 102 3 of 8 37% 0 0 3:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 César Almeida 0 23 of 41 56% 24 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ihor Potieria 0 16 of 32 50% 17 of 33 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:58
2 César Almeida 0 22 of 36 61% 37 of 54 0 of 0 --- 1 1 2:13
Ihor Potieria 0 10 of 17 58% 13 of 20 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:17
3 César Almeida 0 12 of 36 33% 17 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Ihor Potieria 0 18 of 40 45% 27 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
César Almeida 57 of 113 50% 32 of 69 14 of 28 11 of 16 41 of 90 1 of 1 15 of 22
Ihor Potieria 44 of 89 49% 22 of 64 9 of 12 13 of 13 42 of 85 1 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 César Almeida 23 of 41 56% 6 of 16 7 of 14 10 of 11 23 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ihor Potieria 16 of 32 50% 6 of 21 5 of 6 5 of 5 16 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 César Almeida 22 of 36 61% 17 of 29 5 of 6 0 of 1 6 of 13 1 of 1 15 of 22
Ihor Potieria 10 of 17 58% 6 of 13 2 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 15 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 César Almeida 12 of 36 33% 9 of 24 2 of 8 1 of 4 12 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ihor Potieria 18 of 40 45% 10 of 30 2 of 4 6 of 6 16 of 38 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
César Almeida

Angelo picks César Almeida, citing his superior striking and kickboxing background, including a win over Alex Pereira. He notes Ihor Potieria is hittable and has poor takedown defense, but Almeida is the better striker. He wishes Almeida were more affordable at -400 but expects the win.

Wishes odds were better at -400
"Caesar Raa is the better Striker it is literally that simple"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
César Almeida

Big Brady confidently picks César Almeida, noting that Potieria will likely attempt takedowns but has poor wrestling (0 for 10 or 11 in the UFC). He believes Almeida will stuff takedowns and out-strike Potieria, eventually breaking him and winning by second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"I'm going to go Ona here I think he's going to stuff the takedowns keep it on the feet and I think he's going to break pateria as the fight goes on give me caesar Al to win this fight …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
César Almeida

Cody picks Almeida, calling Potieria a 'bum' and noting Almeida's striking pedigree. He believes Potieria's poor chin and cardio will be exposed, and that Almeida will win by knockout. He dismisses Potieria's grappling threat.

"I'm taking Caesar Almeida"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
César Almeida

Connor is confident Almeida will win, noting that Potieria's boxing is unstructured and he leaves massive openings. Almeida's low kicks will disrupt Potieria's tricky strikes, and Almeida's kickboxing pedigree should overwhelm Potieria, who cannot challenge him in that realm.

"Picking him over Poteer. Yeah. Oh, absolutely. Boxer who has trouble actually sitting on big strikes. That just sounds like a nightmare."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
César Almeida

Daniel Vreeland leans toward César Almeida due to his superior kickboxing background, including a trilogy with Alex Pereira. However, he is concerned about Almeida's age (36) and transitioning to MMA, as he can be taken down. Vreeland notes that Potieria has improved and could win if he gets the fight to the mat, but he favors Almeida's striking.

"I'm gonna lean with Cesar I'm just not convinced about you know minus 400"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
César Almeida

The host acknowledges that Almeida let down many people last time against Roman Kopylov by not showing urgency to get back to his feet. However, he believes Potieria lacks that type of grappling and will be forced to strike with the better striker, leading to Almeida finding a knockout.

"I don't think poera has that type of grappling and he will be forced to strike with the better Striker which should ultimately lead to CER Alida finding a knockout here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul is hesitant to pick either fighter. He acknowledges Almeida's flaws and Potieria's puncher's chance but doesn't like the minus 350 price. He calls it a 'dogger pass' and doesn't commit.

"it's dogger pass"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
César Almeida

The MMA Guru picks César Almeida over Ihor Potieria, citing Almeida's superior striking and fewer flaws. He notes Almeida trains with Alex Pereira, which helps with takedown defense and striking. He believes Potieria makes mistakes on the feet and won't get takedowns, and at altitude, Almeida's better striking defense will prevail. He predicts Almeida gets the win.

"I'm going to go with Caesar almea I think he's a way better Striker I don't see eho Pia getting takedowns on him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
César Almeida

Zane agrees, stating that Almeida is a great MMA kickboxer who will exploit Potieria's defensive flaws. He notes that Potieria's one-and-done strikes leave him out of position, and Almeida's low kicks will neutralize his boxing. This is a perfect matchup for a kickboxer dabbling in MMA.

"I will take sixes are all made to, uh, to win a kickboxing bout with an MMA fighter. Perfect kind of middleweight bout to line up for a kickboxer dabbling in MMA."
LOSS vs Michel Pereira
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 0:54 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Pereira 0 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:09
Ihor Potieria 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Pereira 0 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:09
Ihor Potieria 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Pereira 6 of 10 60% 4 of 7 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 4
Ihor Potieria 2 of 3 66% 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Pereira 6 of 10 60% 4 of 7 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 4
Ihor Potieria 2 of 3 66% 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo is confident in Pereira, citing his speed, power, creativity, and grappling. He notes Potieria is a technical striker but hittable and with poor takedown defense. He expects Pereira to win by finish.

Angelo says 'he probably wins by finish'
"Michelle peda is the pick and he probably wins by finish"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Big Brady is high on Pereira's middleweight resurgence, noting his two quick finishes. He views Potieria as a step down and believes Pereira will knock him out in the first round, possibly mid to late.

"I think he Sparks Pia I think he does it in the first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Cody picks Pereira, noting his improved fight IQ, cardio, and well-roundedness at middleweight. He believes Potieria is a one-dimensional knockout artist with poor durability and cardio. Cody expects Pereira to win, likely by knockout.

Pereira by KO
"I think he wins probably by knockout..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Daniel Vreeland leans with Pereira but considers it a dog-or-pass situation. He acknowledges Potieria's recent improvements, including better cardio and confidence, but believes Pereira's top-15 trajectory and finishing ability give him the edge. He suggests that Pereira's decision prop at +550 might be a better value than the moneyline, as Potieria could last the distance.

Pereira by decision +550
"I'm gonna lean with Michelle but I'mma keep it a buck as always I think this is a dogger pass situation"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Michel Pereira. He notes that Pereira has chilled out his wild style since gassing out against Tristan Connelly, and has been on a seven-fight winning streak. Vreeland thinks Pereira will win easily, though he doesn't elaborate on a specific method. He later mentions that Pereira's submission prop has moved from +650 to +370, indicating the books are aware of his submission threat.

"I think he was gassing himself out being a wild man so yeah yeah that that's his lost to Tristan Connelly right like that's how he lost he's been weird chose not to do that from then on"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Jeff Fox is very confident in Michel Pereira, calling him a 'demolisher' and noting his seven-fight winning streak since two losses. Fox explains that one loss was due to an illegal knee against Diego Sanchez, and the other was a short-notice grappling loss to Tristan Connelly. Since then, Pereira has been more measured and finished opponents like Andre Petroski. Fox believes Potieria is not UFC caliber, with wins only over aged fighters like Shogun. He expects Pereira to do whatever he wants, and later in the show he picks Pereira by submission for the Hungry Man parlay.

Pereira by submission +370 (part of Hungry Man parlay)
"I don't think he's UFC caliber if I'm being completely honest with potier I think they're giving Michelle paa a chance to do whatever he wants in there"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Michel Pereira

Pereira is on a crazy run, harnessing his big striking power over 15 minutes. His speed and power advantage will be enough to find Potieria's chin and put him out clean.

knockout
"I expect his speed and power advantage to be more than enough for him to go out there and find the chin of portieria and putting him out clean"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Paul picks Pereira, highlighting his 8-2 UFC record, athleticism, and evolution into a winning style. He dismisses Potieria's chances, citing his poor durability, cardio, and ground game. Paul sees Pereira as a rightful favorite.

"Gotta go with Pereira... I understand why he's the big favorite."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Michel Pereira, praising his skills at middleweight and noting that welterweights often make better middleweights. He highlights Pereira's wins over Andre Petroski and Maxime Gremont, and predicts a first-round rear-naked choke. He criticizes Potieria's record and recent performances, including a loss to Shogun Rua.

rear naked choke round one
"I'm going to say rear naked choke round one for Mel per"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ihor Potieria 0 32 of 133 24% 41 of 143 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Robert Bryczek 1 67 of 168 39% 77 of 181 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ihor Potieria 0 12 of 35 34% 16 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Bryczek 0 14 of 41 34% 22 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:59
2 Ihor Potieria 0 12 of 56 21% 12 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Bryczek 0 28 of 62 45% 28 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ihor Potieria 0 8 of 42 19% 13 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Robert Bryczek 1 25 of 65 38% 27 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ihor Potieria 32 of 133 24% 19 of 103 10 of 24 3 of 6 30 of 127 2 of 6 0 of 0
Robert Bryczek 67 of 168 39% 47 of 139 5 of 12 15 of 17 61 of 156 6 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ihor Potieria 12 of 35 34% 7 of 26 5 of 9 0 of 0 12 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Bryczek 14 of 41 34% 5 of 26 1 of 5 8 of 10 12 of 35 2 of 6 0 of 0
2 Ihor Potieria 12 of 56 21% 6 of 41 3 of 10 3 of 5 12 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Bryczek 28 of 62 45% 20 of 51 3 of 6 5 of 5 28 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ihor Potieria 8 of 42 19% 6 of 36 2 of 5 0 of 1 6 of 37 2 of 5 0 of 0
Robert Bryczek 25 of 65 38% 22 of 62 1 of 1 2 of 2 21 of 59 4 of 6 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Robert Bryczek vs. Ihor Potieria (187.5: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bryczek (-198), Potieria (+164)

Round 1
Just one of the 14 fights on this card featured someone missing weight—Flowers and Marcos both missed initially and then came back to hit their proper marks. Former light heavyweight Potieria (19-5, 1-3 UFC) took his fight against Bryczek (17-5, 0-0 UFC) on short notice, and he clocked in one and a half pounds over the middleweight limit. As a result, Potieria surrenders 20% of his purse to the Polish slugger. Whether that 20% will be from Potieira’s one check or two, the two men have the next 15 minutes or less to decide it. Referee Mike Beltran checks them in as they touch gloves. Potieria is the aggressor as he pitches kicks from his rear leg to the waist and knee. Bryczek allows Potieria to crash the pocket, so he can sit down on two punches that stop Potieria in his tracks. The Ukrainian shakes out immediate cobwebs and continues to move forward, looking for a right hook that is not there. Bryczek takes a kick to the ribs and responds with a right hand, and he pushes off as a finger jabs into Potieria’s eye. Beltran sees it immediately and calls time, and he lets Potieria wipe it out with a towel as he brings in the doctor. Potieria remarks that he is a little bleary in his eye, but that he is otherwise good to continue. After two minutes, the fighters resume their mutual combat in the center of the cage. Potieria tosses out low kicks, and one lands with a thump instead of a slap. Bryczek loops punches to the body, and Potieria scores a solid kick and a right hand. Bryczek opens up with a huge right hand, and he cracks Potieria again. Bryczek lets loose several more punches, and Potieria bounces away and absorbs one more flush right hand on the jaw. As Potieria backpedals, he parries a right hand from the Polish fighter, which rebounds square into Potieria’s cup in an unlucky turn of events. Beltran recognizes the unintentional foul and allows Potieria to recover once more, and Potieria takes all the time he needs. This results in another lengthy stoppage of three minutes long, and Beltran loudly and sternly admonishes Bryczek that he will lose a point if he fouls again. When they resume, Bryczek is ready and rearing to throw hands, and he lands several hard ones to force Potieria to shoot for an ill-advised takedown. Bryczek stops it, but he gets pressed into the fence from behind, with Potieria kneeing him in the back of the thigh frustratingly. Bryczek spins around with seconds to go, and they bang it out right to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bryczek
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bryczek
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bryczek

Round 2
The fighters meet in the middle and jab at one another from range, with neither landing much early. Potieria misses with an overhand right, but he plants a kick on the inside of the Polish fighter’s calf. Potieria shoots for a takedown, and he abandons it right when Bryczek sprawls so that he can aim an uppercut on the dome. Bryczek sees it at the last second and dodges it, and he ducks a subsequent spinning back fist. Potieria drops his hands and lands a few punches from a safe distance, and he punctuates a combination with a low kick. The two clash together and bang heads, but it does not result in anything more problematic. Bryczek digs a left to the body, and Potieria shrugs at him and then shoots for a single. Potieria again follows that failed takedown with an uppercut, and this one brushes the side of the UFC newcomer’s head. Bryczek looks for a right hand over the top, and he kicks the body as Potieria again shrugs at him mockingly. Potieria sprints in for a single, and Bryczek hops away and walks Potieria down. Potieria intercepts him with a spinning back kick to the midsection, and Bryczek takes it cleanly and keeps his guard up to block and overhand left. Potieria taps his chest and drops down to the floor with a Mortal Kombat-esque leg sweep. Bryczek look at him confusedly. Potieria is in his groove, having fun and dodging and weaving anything coming from Bryczek. Potieria clips his man a few times with short shots, and he catches Bryczek on the chin with an uppercut. Bryczek headhunts and struggles to reach his opponent, and they trade one big punch right as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Potieria
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Potieria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Potieria

Round 3
There is a final glove touch to check in the last round, and Potieria stays firmly in his groove with jabs and funky hand movements. Bryczek reaches his foe with a straight left hand, but it is one-and-done. Bryczek loads up on a right hand, only to get countered with a left hook that shakes him up. Bryczek charges into action with a huge left hook, and Potieria’s head snaps back like a Pez dispenser. Potieria replies with a three-punch salvo that knocks Bryczek off his feet, and Bryczek barely keeps with it courtesy of a desperation takedown. Bryczek gets back to his feet, and Potieria chases after him and swings for the bleachers. Bryczek does the same, and he manages to catch Potieria coming in but is taking shots as well. Both men use a ton of energy, and Potieria presses the Polish fighter into the wall and strings four elbows together. Bryczek slips and rips Potieria with big punches, and he splits Potieria’s eyebrow open in the process. Potieria rips an elbow that misses slightly, but he blasts Bryczek with an elbow and several punches from up close. Bryczek turns his man around in the tie-up, and he sneaks an elbow up top before breaking away. Potieria reaches his foe with a few punches, and Bryczek tags him back with his own short flurry. The two clash together, and Potieria clinches up to wear on the exhausted Bryczek. Bryczek gets space with 10 seconds to go, and the two throw down and knee one another right as time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Potieria (29-28 Potieria)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Potieria (29-28 Potieria)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Potieria (29-28 Potieria)

The Official Result
Ihor Potieria def. Robert Bryczek via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robert Bryczek

Angelo notes that Ihor Potieria has good striking power and accuracy but poor cardio and is hittable. Robert Bryczek is a trained boxer with good footwork, feints, and power, and solid takedown defense. Angelo believes Bryczek just needs to survive Potieria's early danger and then take over as Potieria fades. He calls this one of his most confident picks and suggests a potential under 2.5 rounds bet.

under 2.5 rounds, my mortgage will go on that
"Robert is the pick very very confident pick one of my most confident picks on the card."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Robert Bryczek

Big Brady picks Robert Bryczek to win by first-round KO. He notes that Bryczek has unreal power and has been knocking out opponents cold in his recent fights, while Potieria has poor striking defense (41%) and limited cardio. He expects a one-round banger where both fighters swing, but Bryczek's power and the fact that Potieria is cutting to middleweight on short notice give him the edge.

first round KO
"I'm going to take breek to come in there and take off Pia's head but gosh somebody's getting served in this one in the first round so give me bre check first round KO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Cody is hesitant but picks Potieria as a dog. He questions Bryczek's level of competition, noting he's 33, making his UFC debut, and has fought lower-level opponents. Potieria has faced better competition at 205 and showed competitiveness against Rodolfo Vieira. Cody thinks Bryczek's physique and quick finishes may not translate against a UFC-level opponent, and Potieria's power at 185 could be a factor.

"I'd be taking a shot on the dog ehore here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Robert Bryczek

Bryczek has speed, power, and athleticism. He should be able to land an early knockout against Potieria, who is making his middleweight debut on short notice. Potieria has poor durability and slows down in deep waters. The under 1.5 rounds is a strong play. Bryczek by first-round knockout.

under 1.5 rounds at -240
"give me bur under one and a half I don't mind that chalk at all I think it hits with relative easier but give me birek to win his fight first round knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Paul is also hesitant but picks Potieria. He notes that Bryczek's record is padded with low-level competition and that he has never fought at this level. Potieria, despite his losses, has fought good fighters and has power. Paul thinks Bryczek's size and possible PED concerns are red flags, and that Potieria at his natural weight class could surprise.

"I'm actually in the same boat uh taking the shot on ehore"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Bryczek

The MMA Guru picks Robert Bryczek because Potieria is taking the fight on short notice after a recent TKO loss, and has been finished multiple times. He notes Bryczek is a dangerous knockout artist in his prime, with a full camp. He expects Bryczek to get a first-round finish.

first round finish
"I'm going to go with him getting a finish over Pia in the first round."
LOSS vs Rodolfo Bellato
TKO (punches) R2 4:17 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodolfo Bellato 0 80 of 131 61% 99 of 160 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:49
Ihor Potieria 1 73 of 127 57% 92 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodolfo Bellato 0 18 of 43 41% 27 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:07
Ihor Potieria 0 37 of 69 53% 42 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rodolfo Bellato 0 62 of 88 70% 72 of 106 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:42
Ihor Potieria 1 36 of 58 62% 50 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodolfo Bellato 80 of 131 61% 70 of 116 9 of 12 1 of 3 18 of 46 11 of 14 51 of 71
Ihor Potieria 73 of 127 57% 58 of 111 9 of 10 6 of 6 38 of 73 12 of 21 23 of 33
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodolfo Bellato 18 of 43 41% 12 of 32 5 of 8 1 of 3 9 of 32 9 of 11 0 of 0
Ihor Potieria 37 of 69 53% 22 of 53 9 of 10 6 of 6 29 of 56 8 of 13 0 of 0
2 Rodolfo Bellato 62 of 88 70% 58 of 84 4 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 14 2 of 3 51 of 71
Ihor Potieria 36 of 58 62% 36 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 17 4 of 8 23 of 33
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Ihor Potieria
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bellato (-455), Potieria (+350)

Round 1
Light heavyweights are next to the stage, as Bellato (11-2, 0-0 UFC) makes his organizational debut opposite Potieria (19-4, 1-2 UFC) at 205 pounds. Potieria will be remembered as the man who retired Brazilian icon Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.
For more on Bellato, read “Zero Hour” from Sherdog’s own Christian Stein
. Jacob Montalvo steps up as the third man in the cage. They touch gloves, and we are underway. Bellato backs Potieria onto his back foot and clips him with a right hook. Potieria answers with an inside leg kick. Bellato closes the distance, but Potieria shrugs off his bid for a takedown. Jab-jab-cross combo from the Ukrainian. Bellato tests the midsection with a kick. Potieria finds a home with a clean straight left, which has been his best weapon thus far. Sweeping hooks from both hands wobbles Bellato. Potieria using his speed and lateral movement to stay ahead of the Brazilian. He steps into a knee to the body. Bellato steps forward and engages his adversary in the clinch. A knee south of the equator draws an audible reaction from Potieria and results in a halt to the action. Future generations of Potierias cry out as we await a restart. Potieria sticks the Brazilian with a straight left, dodges a flying knee and circles out into open space. He clips Bellato with a multi-punch burst, avoids return fire and scores with another straight left. Bellato presses his efforts in the clinch, drawing boos from the crowd. A knee and a right hook gets Potieria’s attention. They trade at close range to close out the round. Excitement starts to build.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Potieria
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Potieria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Potieria

Round 2
Bellato immediately closes the distance and scores with a front kick to the gut. He follows clubbing left hand with an elbow strike and knee up the middle. Potieria floors him with a multi-punch volley, follows up with heavy fire, shuts down a takedown, takes top position and unleashes a barrage of brutal hammerfists. Bellato somehow survives the onslaught. Potieria slows, waits for his second wind and gets busy again with punches and hammerfists. The Brazilian may not be able to take much more, with Montalvo hovering above. Potieria passes guard and slams home more punches and hammerfists. Bellato rises to his feet. Potieria looks exhausted but continues to throw. Bellato connects with a left hook, ducks a few counterpunches and trips the Ukrainian to the floor. What a turn of events.
Bellato sets up in half guard and slams elbows into the legs, body and head. Bellato moves to full mount with a minute to go and cuts loose with punches. Potieria offering no intelligent defense, and Montalvo decides to stop it
. Amazing rally from Bellato in his UFC debut.

The Official Result
Rodolfo Bellato def. Ihor Potieria—TKO (Punches) 4:17 R2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Big Brady is very confident in Rodolfo Bellato, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He praises Bellato's well-rounded game, including leg kicks, clinch work, and BJJ. He thinks Potieria has a padded record and poor cardio, and that Bellato will break him down against the cage, drag him to the mat, and finish him in the second round by submission.

second round submission
"I think they're setting up bat here to go out there and get a win and I think the ehor Pia experiment is about over"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Cody picks Bellato, calling Potieria a fraud. He notes Potieria's only win condition is an early knockout, and his cardio and durability are terrible. He thinks Bellato can take him down and finish him. He warns that Bellato might stand and bang, which could be risky, but still expects a win.

"Rulo will fight a stupid game plan and is still gonna win but he can make himself look like a minus 10,000 or he can make himself look like a minus 400 I'm hoping he just takes the path of …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Lucrative James leans towards Ihor Potieria, noting that the line is wide and that Bellato may be overvalued after a big win on Dana White's Contender Series. He thinks Potieria has a good chance of knocking out Bellato early, especially in round one or two, as Bellato keeps his chin up. However, he is not fully confident and may bet on Potieria by KO if the prop odds are favorable.

considering Potieria by KO; may bet moneyline or KO when props are widely available
"I think pia has a good chance of knocking out early at least in round one or two round three I don't think he's going to get a knockout but round one or two definitely can happen"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Bellato is a BJJ black belt with improving striking and forward pressure. He has shown confidence and power, and his training at Teixeira MMA should provide good partners. Potieria has been exposed against higher-level competition and tends to break under pressure. Bellato is expected to swarm Potieria and finish him either on the ground or on the feet.

"I think that this is a pretty easy spot for Bello to go out there and get a win in his UFC debut"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Paul picks Bellato but doesn't love the price. He thinks Bellato is a rightful favorite with a well-rounded skill set. He notes Potieria has shown nothing except finishing an aged Shogun. He believes Bellato should win easily if he wrestles, but worries he might stand and bang.

"I think vat is a rightful favor but at mine is 400 it's hard to argue that there's meat on the bone there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

The MMA Guru picks Rodolfo Bellato, calling him a tank with good takedown defense and pressure. He believes Potieria lacks quality wins and will fade if he can't finish early. He predicts Bellato will break Potieria in the second round by TKO, citing Bellato's toughness and ability to walk down opponents.

TKO in second round
"I'm gonna go with Rodolfo Bellato... I think he's going to walk down Potieria in the second or third round and get himself a TKO."
LOSS vs Carlos Ulberg
TKO (punches) R1 2:09 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Ulberg 1 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Ihor Potieria 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Ulberg 1 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Ihor Potieria 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Ulberg 13 of 21 61% 11 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 11 0 of 0 8 of 10
Ihor Potieria 5 of 9 55% 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Ulberg 13 of 21 61% 11 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 11 0 of 0 8 of 10
Ihor Potieria 5 of 9 55% 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo picks Ulberg, calling him a world-class kickboxer with incredible footwork and range management. He notes Ulberg has 100% takedown accuracy and defense (though only one attempt defended). He says Potieria is a brawler who keeps his hands low and relies on his chin. He expects Ulberg to win inside the distance and would hammer the under if a 2.5 round line is available.

Under 2.5 rounds if line available; has Ulberg in light parlays
"I gotta go Uber here for the win right his striking is so smooth both offensively and defensively"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Big Brady is very confident in Ulberg, calling him the much better striker. He notes Potieria has terrible striking defense and will rush in, allowing Ulberg to catch him. Brady references Ulberg's impressive first-round knockout of Negumereanu as evidence of his power. He sees no path to victory for Potieria outside of landing a big shot, and predicts Ulberg will starch him in the first round. He mentions Ulberg is a popular parlay piece but says he's not laying the -400 himself.

first round knockout
"olberg's Gonna Knock this guy out and he's going to knock him out in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Cody picks Ulberg by knockout, expecting him to flatline Potieria. He praises Ulberg's kickboxing and training with Adesanya, and notes Potieria's wild style and disrespectful behavior after the Shogun win. He believes Ulberg's precision will counter Potieria's aggression.

under 1.5 rounds, Carlos Ulberg by KO
"I expect Albrecht to absolutely Flatline him and knock him unconscious but your will come to fight you are will come to throw down but again it's like a precise technical kickboxer yeah puncher's chance I get it but uh …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Connor agrees with Zane, calling it a bad matchup for Potieria. He notes that Ulberg is a good low kicker and counter-puncher, and Potieria's wild pressure will play into Ulberg's hands. He thinks Potieria's lack of defense and inability to handle kicks will be his downfall.

"It's just a bad matchup for Potieria. He could win it, but... this just feels like it's going to be a lot like the Nicolai Nega Mariano fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Ulberg, highlighting his sharp striking and recent performances against tough opponents. He notes Ulberg's precise combinations and ability to avoid damage, as seen in his last fight where he wasn't touched. Levi criticizes Potieria's padded record and lack of high-level competition, though he acknowledges Potieria's power and the risk of a knockout. He believes Ulberg's cleaner technique and higher ceiling will prevail, but the price is too high for a bet.

missed line at -280; would have bet at that price
"I think olberg is a lot sharper a lot cleaner a lot more precise than e-horse so for that reason I'm gonna pick him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Ulberg is far superior in striking, with a disciplined kickboxing style. He has 100% takedown defense, though he hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler. Potieria has power but poor cardio and will likely gas trying to get the fight to the ground. Ulberg will keep it upright and walk Potieria into a big shot, knocking him out. The fight likely ends inside the distance.

fight doesn't go to decision, under 2.5 rounds
"I'm expecting violence here and I expect it to come from auberg by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Paul is confident in Ulberg, noting his consistent improvements and striking. He mentions Ulberg's adjustments after his first fight, and his ability to pick shots and finish. He sees Potieria as wild and less technical, and expects Ulberg to roll. He added Ulberg to a parlay.

added to parlay
"I think he absolutely rolls here what's your take"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Ulberg, calling it a mismatch. He notes that Ulberg is more complete on the feet and that Potieria's win over Shogun is not impressive. He predicts a TKO in round two or late in the first round.

TKO in round two or late first round
"I'm gonna have to go with Carlos alberg getting a KO here... I think I'm gonna go with all Burger getting a TKO in round two or something along those lines"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Zane picks Ulberg, noting that he has figured out his game after a prospect loss and now fights with more composure. He highlights Ulberg's good low kicks, straight punches, and counter-punching, which are terrible for Potieria's wild pressure style. He thinks Potieria has no answer to kicks and will be overwhelmed.

"It's just a bad matchup for Potieria. He could win it, but... this just feels like it's going to be a lot like the Nicolai Nega Mariano fight."
TKO (punches) R1 4:05 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ihor Potieria 0 17 of 31 54% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
MaurĂ­cio Rua 1 21 of 41 51% 27 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ihor Potieria 0 17 of 31 54% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
MaurĂ­cio Rua 1 21 of 41 51% 27 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ihor Potieria 17 of 31 54% 4 of 17 3 of 4 10 of 10 17 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
MaurĂ­cio Rua 21 of 41 51% 16 of 35 3 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 31 5 of 6 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ihor Potieria 17 of 31 54% 4 of 17 3 of 4 10 of 10 17 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
MaurĂ­cio Rua 21 of 41 51% 16 of 35 3 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 31 5 of 6 3 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Big Brady calls this the sketchiest fight on the card and is staying far away from betting. He notes Potieria has power and finishing ability, with most wins in the first round, but is not sold on his UFC caliber. Shogun is washed at 41 and has been for a while. Potieria has a huge hole in takedown defense, but Shogun doesn't wrestle much. He leans towards Potieria by first-round knockout but has no confidence.

"pateria first found knockout for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Cody picks Ihor Potieria confidently, noting Potieria's power, speed, and youth advantage over an aging Shogun. He says Shogun is past his prime, has poor durability, and is retiring, which historically leads to losses. He thinks Potieria will land something early and put Shogun away. He mentions Shogun's recent performances have been poor, and that Potieria is a limited striker but enough to beat the current Shogun.

mentions Shogun's retirement announcement as a negative factor
"I think he's going to land something he's going to put him away he showed in that sadolski fight on the contender series that he absolutely does have good power"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Connor agrees with Zane, stating Shogun's prime ended in 2009 and he's been too slow and fragile. He notes Potieria is not very good but not bad enough to lose to Shogun at this point.

"He's a decent athlete with speed and size for the division."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Paul picks Ihor Potieria, agreeing with Cody. He says he hopes he's wrong but thinks Potieria will win. He notes Shogun's decline and the retirement announcement curse. He says he won't bet on this fight but picks Potieria. He mentions Shogun's legendary status but says his time is up.

not betting on this fight
"I hate to say I agree with you and I'm not even really going to add anything to it I hope I'm wrong I'm picking ihor I won't be betting on this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

The Guru picks Potieria despite calling him a 'can crusher.' He notes Shogun is 41 and looked awful in recent fights, struggling against Saint Preux. Potieria is young and scrappy, and the Guru trusts the younger fighter to land first. He predicts a first-round TKO for Potieria, though he admits it would be nice to see Shogun win.

TKO in first round
"I'm going with Igor pateria I think you'll find the TKO on Shogun Shogun looks awful in his last few fights"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Zane picks Potieria because Shogun is too slow and lacks durability. He notes Potieria is a decent athlete with speed and size, and can take shots. He mentions Shogun's recent losses to Paul Craig and OSP show he's done.

"You got to pick him because you can't pick Shogun anymore."
TKO (punches and knees) R2 3:33 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nicolae Negumereanu 0 51 of 95 53% 72 of 122 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:01
Ihor Potieria 0 38 of 70 54% 52 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nicolae Negumereanu 0 8 of 18 44% 29 of 45 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:36
Ihor Potieria 0 7 of 15 46% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nicolae Negumereanu 0 43 of 77 55% 43 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Ihor Potieria 0 31 of 55 56% 32 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nicolae Negumereanu 51 of 95 53% 44 of 84 7 of 11 0 of 0 23 of 57 25 of 32 3 of 6
Ihor Potieria 38 of 70 54% 26 of 58 3 of 3 9 of 9 31 of 62 6 of 7 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nicolae Negumereanu 8 of 18 44% 7 of 15 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 11 1 of 1 3 of 6
Ihor Potieria 7 of 15 46% 2 of 10 1 of 1 4 of 4 6 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Nicolae Negumereanu 43 of 77 55% 37 of 69 6 of 8 0 of 0 19 of 46 24 of 31 0 of 0
Ihor Potieria 31 of 55 56% 24 of 48 2 of 2 5 of 5 25 of 48 6 of 7 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nicolae Negumereanu

Big Brady picks Nicolae Negumereanu to win by decision. He is not impressed with Potieria's padded record and poor competition, while Negumereanu has faced better opposition. He notes both fighters are hittable and reckless, but favors Negumereanu's chin, toughness, and cardio. He expects Potieria to have moments early but fade as the fight goes on.

"give me negan mariano to win i you know one thing i like about negamariano is this guy has a crazy chin"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Nicolae Negumereanu

Cody picks Negumereanu as a dog, citing his UFC experience and wins over real UFC fighters like Kennedy Nzechukwu. He notes that Potieria's record is padded with questionable fights and that he hasn't fought anyone. He thinks Negumereanu is more seasoned and can take punishment, and that Potieria's cardio is suspect. He also mentions that Negumereanu has been working on his wrestling and can implement it once Potieria tires.

"wrong fighter favored as far as i'm concerned nick's already got the real ufc credentials he's already beaten real ufc fighters"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nicolae Negumereanu

Daniel leans Negumereanu, citing his UFC experience, willingness to push the pace, and training at Extreme Couture. He heavily criticizes Potieria's record, noting he fought mostly cans, was dropped by a fat 5'9" heavyweight, and even took an amateur fight in 2019. He thinks Negumereanu's grit and pressure will be too much for Potieria, especially in a deep-water fight. He missed the line at +145 and is now +110, so he passes on betting.

"I'm going Nick Negumereanu to welcome this kid to the UFC."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Nicolae Negumereanu

Preet got in on Negumereanu at +125 earlier in the week, citing the padded record of Potieria and the low level of competition he faced. He notes Potieria was dropped by an 'ice cream vendor' and that Negumereanu's durability and grimy style should carry him. He is unsure of the method but happy with the plus money.

"i got in on nicolia plus 125 earlier this week i just thought that was a spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Nicolae Negumereanu

Paul leans Negumereanu but is not passionate. He notes that Potieria's record is suspicious with many amateur fights on the same day and possible padding. He thinks Negumereanu is more experienced at a higher level and can take a punch. He also mentions that Potieria has cardio issues and that Negumereanu could take over in later rounds. He says it's a good live betting opportunity.

"i'm not gonna be beating the drum and being like super super passionate about either side in this fight i'm just going no but you're the guy with a little bit more experience at a higher level"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Nicolae Negumereanu

The MMA Guru picks Nicolae Negumereanu by TKO in the first round. He expects Ihor Potieria to start fast with big shots and create chaos, but once things calm down, Negumereanu will find his range, chop the legs, and land a big shot to finish. The Guru emphasizes Negumereanu's patience and defense as key factors.

TKO in round 1
"nikolai nagumayanu gets this one done moving on"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Angelo picks Marco Tulio, stating that the fight is set up for him to win. He notes Tulio's diverse striking and solid grappling, while Ihor Potieria is a kickboxer with poor takedown defense. He believes Tulio's wrestling and power will be enough, though he dislikes the -500 odds on a UFC debut. He expects Tulio to win, possibly via takedowns and ground control.

"Marco Tulio is going to be the pick minus 500 uh not great don't love that minus 500 on UFC debut don't love that but Marco Tulio is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Big Brady thinks Tulio is the better fighter overall, with more ways to win. He acknowledges Potieria has looked better than expected, even having moments against Bolat and Almeida, but still considers him bad. Brady notes Tulio can push Potieria against the cage, get takedowns, and is a better striker. He predicts Tulio wins by decision, though he thinks the line is too wide.

"I'm going tulo I'm going tulo to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Cody picks Potieria as a big underdog, arguing the line is inflated on Tulio. He notes Potieria's power, experience against tough competition, and improvements at 185. He believes Tulio is not a proven prospect and Potieria has a puncher's chance.

"dogger pass for me in this scenario going to be the dog absolutely no hisp being ehore this week"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

Daniel highlights Tulio's confidence and ground game, noting he is nasty on the mat and trains at Shoot the Box. He thinks Potieria is better than his record shows but lacks confidence and is on a losing streak. He predicts Tulio will get the fight to the mat and finish quickly.

"I'm going go Marco Tulio here to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marco Tulio

This should be a chaotic matchup favoring Tulio, but not enough to justify -500 odds. The host lacks confidence to back Potieria either, but expects chaos and Tulio to win, probably by knockout.

by knockout
"I think that will see chaos erupt and I think we'll see the Brazilian come through and I think he wins this matchup probably by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Paul also picks Potieria, calling it a 'dogger pass' fight. He notes Tulio's unimpressive Contender Series performances and Potieria's ability to grapple a little. He expects a competitive striking match where Potieria can land.

"just plug your nose and take ehore man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Marco Tulio

The Guru picks Tulio, calling him an underrated prospect with good standup and grappling. He notes Tulio's win over Yusri Belgar on the contender series and his momentum. He sympathizes with Potieria's tough career but thinks Tulio is the better fighter. He mentions Tulio trains at Shooter Box with Diego Lima and has a decent chin.

"I'm going to go of Marco too I think he's incredibly underrated"
Comments (1)
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

The punching was nice from Tulio, the gnp was lit ?