Career Averages - Ernesta Kareckaitė
Career Averages - Nicolle Caliari
Ernesta Kareckaitė
Nicolle Caliari
Ernesta Kareckaitė - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regina Tarin | 0 | 114 of 239 | 47% | 125 of 250 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 105 of 249 | 42% | 127 of 279 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Regina Tarin | 0 | 37 of 79 | 46% | 39 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 33 of 82 | 40% | 39 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 2 | Regina Tarin | 0 | 31 of 68 | 45% | 35 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 32 of 70 | 45% | 36 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 3 | Regina Tarin | 0 | 46 of 92 | 50% | 51 of 97 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 40 of 97 | 41% | 52 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regina Tarin | 114 of 239 | 47% | 76 of 185 | 34 of 48 | 4 of 6 | 91 of 209 | 23 of 30 | 0 of 0 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 105 of 249 | 42% | 79 of 212 | 20 of 30 | 6 of 7 | 88 of 225 | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Regina Tarin | 37 of 79 | 46% | 26 of 63 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 35 of 75 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 33 of 82 | 40% | 26 of 70 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 29 of 78 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Regina Tarin | 31 of 68 | 45% | 20 of 52 | 10 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 63 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 32 of 70 | 45% | 22 of 58 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 67 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Regina Tarin | 46 of 92 | 50% | 30 of 70 | 15 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 71 | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 40 of 97 | 41% | 31 of 84 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 80 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ernesta Kareckaitė (referred to as 'Carrot Cake') because she is a solid striker with good footwork, fast hands, and head movement. He notes that she uses her length well and can fight on the ground if needed. He believes her technical striking and volume will outpoint the power of Sophia Montenegro (Regina Tarin), who is hittable and lacks defensive acumen.
Big Brady picks Ernesta Kareckaitė, citing her high volume striking (almost 8 significant strikes per minute) and solid takedown defense (82%). He notes that opponent Sophia Montenegro is very hitable and has poor defense, while Kareckaitė lacks power but should win by decision. He jokes about her nickname 'Heavy-handed' being inaccurate.
Cody also leans Kareckaitė, citing her striking output and Tarin's short notice. He notes Tarin is a local Muay Thai fighter but lacks MMA experience. He is not heavily invested.
Connor picks Kareckaitė, agreeing with Zane that she is the better fighter. He notes that Tarin is on short notice and less athletic, making Kareckaitė the clear choice.
Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.
The host is tempted to bet on Kareckaitė but is concerned about home advantage for Tarin in Mexico City. He notes that Kareckaitė is 20-30% better technically, but Tarin is aggressive and could make rounds close, potentially swaying judges. He hasn't made up his mind and will decide later.
James views Kareckaitė as the better striker with superior cardio and volume, though she often goes to split decisions. He expects her to pull away after round one, possibly winning by TKO in round three or decision.
The host leans with Kareckaitė, citing her reach advantage and distance striking. He acknowledges Montenegro's power and takedown threat but believes Kareckaitė's defensive grappling has improved. He expects a close decision and likes the decision prop at around +100. He warns that Montenegro could grind out a win if she gets takedowns.
Paul leans towards Kareckaitė due to her experience, striking volume, and preparation for the card. He notes Tarin is a late replacement and less experienced, but the line is tight and he may not bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Ernesta Kareckaitė over Regina Tarin, citing Tarin's lack of quality wins and her hype based on looks rather than skill. He notes that Kareckaitė has a win over Kali Robbins and showed high-level skills in a Contender Series fight, while Tarin is taking the fight on short notice and is only 21 years old. He acknowledges Tarin could pull off a submission but favors the more experienced fighter.
Zane picks Kareckaitė because she is a more reliable volume striker with a better range game and clinch work. Tarin is similar to Montenegro but with less coordination and athleticism, and is on short notice. Kareckaitė should win by outworking Tarin.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 95 of 226 | 42% | 126 of 266 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 67 of 166 | 40% | 86 of 194 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 27 of 63 | 42% | 35 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 25 of 45 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 | |
| 2 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 36 of 86 | 41% | 45 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 24 of 66 | 36% | 28 of 72 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 32 of 77 | 41% | 46 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 22 of 59 | 37% | 33 of 77 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 95 of 226 | 42% | 77 of 199 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 87 of 213 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 67 of 166 | 40% | 36 of 120 | 22 of 35 | 9 of 11 | 63 of 156 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 27 of 63 | 42% | 19 of 54 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 57 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 21 of 41 | 51% | 13 of 30 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 18 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 36 of 86 | 41% | 31 of 76 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 34 of 80 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 24 of 66 | 36% | 14 of 52 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 24 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 32 of 77 | 41% | 27 of 69 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 22 of 59 | 37% | 9 of 38 | 11 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Two women with significantly different styles will clash as the prelims roll on at the 125-pound range. Despite losing her first UFC outing, Kareckaite (5-1-1, 0-1 UFC) comes in as a fairly heavy betting favorite against Brazilian finisher Caliari (8-2, 0-0 UFC) in the latter’s first stint in the Octagon. The Lithuanian will have 15 minutes or less to prove that a bet on her is worthwhile, and Caliari knows just one mistake is all she needs to get the job done. Referee Kerry Hatley draws the charge for this matchup, one that opens up as the ladies clap hands. Kareckaite immediately try to take advantage of her significant reach advantage, pawing out jabs and getting met with an early leg kick. Kareckaite comes up just short with a one-two, and Caliari pushes her away and gets off a low kick. Kareckaite strikes her way into a clinch, and Caliari pulls away and gets caught with a few punches from the Lithuanian. Caliari fires back, and she connects with a few punches and chains them into a takedown attempt. Kareckaite stands upright and turns her around, but Caliari is singularly focused on the grappling. Caliari sneaks in a few uppercuts before deciding to separate, and she ducks a right hand to tag the longer woman with quick strikes. Kareckaite reaches her with a long right hand, and she strings several more together in rapid succession as Caliari’s eyes go wide. The Brazilian looks to slow things down with a takedown attempt, and Kareckaite bucks her way out of it and pops Caliari with a right hand. Caliari is ready to bang when the attempt fails, as she uses her fast hands to set up tackling takedown efforts. Caliari drags Kareckaite’s leg far away to force her to do a split, and she briefly grounds the Lithuanian as a result. Kareckaite pops right back up, and Caliari is tightly wrapped around her as they clinch. The two trade knees and hand-fight until they break apart. Caliari lands first, Kareckaite counters, and the former gives her something back to think about. Kareckaite rifles off long, straight punches, and a head kick is blocked but the front kick that follows is not. Kareckaite drills Caliari with a slew of punches until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Round 2
The ladies tap their hands together before getting going, and Kareckaite picks up where she leads off with long strikes. She does not keep a solid defense, as Caliari meets her with blistering elbows and short but effective shots in response. Caliari ducks a right hand to snap Kareckaite’s head back with a right hand, and this forces Kareckaite to clinch with her to blink out the surprisingly heavy blow. Caliari backs her foe off with her hands, and she gets smacked with a left hand and shoots in for her own takedown. Kareckaite stifles it, circles around in hopes of taking the back and settles for Caliari to roll to her back. The Brazilian clings to Kareckaite, attempting to control Kareckaite’s arms and get hold of a submission. Kareckaite escapes before a leglock materializes, and when she stands right in front of Caliari, the two trade leather. Kareckaite goes to the body to break things up, and Caliari follows suit and rips two left hands to the liver. Kareckaite takes the punches and hurls a few back, but Caliari’s appear more effective when they exchange. The Brazilian goes over the top with a kick, and her left hand continues to score on Kareckaite’s midsection. Kareckaite counters a leg kick with a right hand, and both women suffer damage to their noses as they connect one after the other. Caliari fails on a trip takedown, and she sells out for an uppercut and gets countered hard. Kareckaite strings four punches together before Caliari can pay her back, but Caliari is more than willing to trade violently. They take turns punching one another in the face, defense at a premium, and two hooks from Caliari get Kareckaite’s attention before the round ends with a failed takedown.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite
Round 3
After a speedy glove touch, the flyweights resume throwing hands. Caliari walks through the long, rangy punches to scoop up uppercuts. Caliari mixes up a handful of headshots with a couple to the body, and they go tit-for-tat as they appear to be enjoying the striking affair. Kareckaite puts her fist on the chin again and again, and she lets Caliari clinch with her so she can pound her with a knee. Caliari hammers her opponent with a left to the body, and Kareckaite is right there in front of her clubbing her with a right hand. Kareckaite stops a takedown attempt, partially thanks to a few fence grabs, and Caliari hooks a leg around hers to try to wrench her down. Caliari again strips the leg away like before, but Kareckaite gathers herself before having to deal with a split. The Lithuanian, breaking away from the clinch, does not stay away from Caliari for long. Caliari puts a few one-twos on the jaw and dives after a takedown, but the latter does not get there. Caliari keeps working the body, and a number of right hands have drawn some swelling on Kareckaite’s left eyebrow. Caliari fakes a takedown to deliver a knee to the body, and she times Kareckaite lifting her left up to tackle her to the canvas. Caliari is active when on top, but most of her strikes are blocked or deflected. Kareckaite slugs it out from her back, and the two beat on one another right until the match’s conclusion.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Caliari (29-28 Caliari)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Caliari (29-28 Caliari)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Caliari (29-28 Caliari)
The Official Result
Ernesta Kareckaite def. Nicolle Caliari via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Ernesta Kareckaitė, citing her superior striking, footwork, and length. He notes that Nicolle Caliari's takedowns are mediocre, and while Ernesta's takedown defense is also mediocre, he expects the striking battle to favor Ernesta. He suggests that a plus 3.5 spread bet on Nicolle could be valuable if the odds are plus money, as he sees the fight going to a close decision. He does not expect a finish.
Big Brady disagrees with the odds, thinking this is a close fight. He acknowledges Kareckaitė's size, reach, cardio, and volume, but believes Caliari has the grappling advantage and can land bigger shots. He notes Caliari has improved her grappling since her contender series win and has power. He predicts Caliari wins by decision, using wrestling and grappling to win minutes.
Cody picks Kareckaitė but with low confidence, noting her high volume striking but poor takedown defense. He sees Caliari's submission threat but believes Kareckaitė's cardio and experience give her the edge. He advises passing on this fight.
Daniel notes Kareckaitė's length and volume will be a problem for the shorter Caliari, but Caliari could get takedowns and grind. He thinks Kareckaitė will pick her apart at range, but the -260 odds offer no value. He picks the favorite but calls it a dog-or-pass situation.
Kareckaitė's 6-inch height and 9-inch reach advantage will allow her to keep Caliari at the end of her punches, land more volume, and win on the scorecards. Both earned UFC contracts via the Contender Series last season.
Paul also picks Kareckaitė but is not confident. He notes her volume and physicality but acknowledges Caliari's submission game. He says he doesn't care for this fight and would rather pass.
The Guru picks Caliari, citing her Brazilian background, consistent finishes, and good submission skills. He notes Kareckaitė is a rangy kickboxer but thinks Caliari will get takedowns and a submission. He acknowledges Kareckaitė's youth (26) and win over Kari Judice but sides with Caliari's grappling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dione Barbosa | 0 | 39 of 71 | 54% | 87 of 124 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 1 | 1 | 3:51 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 53 of 156 | 33% | 100 of 220 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 3 | 3:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dione Barbosa | 0 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 34 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:47 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 5 of 23 | 21% | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Dione Barbosa | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 26 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 0:57 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 14 of 44 | 31% | 49 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 2:02 | |
| 3 | Dione Barbosa | 0 | 20 of 37 | 54% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 34 of 89 | 38% | 44 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dione Barbosa | 39 of 71 | 54% | 21 of 49 | 14 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 33 of 65 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 53 of 156 | 33% | 39 of 127 | 8 of 15 | 6 of 14 | 44 of 132 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 23 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dione Barbosa | 11 of 17 | 64% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 5 of 23 | 21% | 4 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Dione Barbosa | 8 of 17 | 47% | 5 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 14 of 44 | 31% | 8 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 12 | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 19 | |
| 3 | Dione Barbosa | 20 of 37 | 54% | 10 of 27 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 34 of 89 | 38% | 27 of 76 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 32 of 85 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Barbosa (-205), Kareckaite (+170)
Round 1
In the next matchup on the early prelims, a classic battle of Brazil vs. Lithuania plays out in the women’s flyweight category. Two women signed on the 2023 season of Dana White’s Contender Series will test their mettle against one another, as “The Witch” Barbosa (6-2, 0-0 UFC) looks to bewitch the heavy-handed Kareckaite (5-0-1, 0-0 UFC). Striker faces grappler, while referee Fernando Portella watches on. The ladies share a cordial tap of the gloves before getting after it. They both try to find their range with jabs early, and Barbosa strikes first with a sweeping low kick. Kareckaite reaches out with a right hand, and she comes up short and hops away from another leg kick. The two whiff on their strikes until Barbosa connects with a loud body kick, and she slides out of the way of the long punches of the Lithuanian. Barbosa jabs the body and sticks Kareckaite with a straight right hand, and Kareckaite is surprised and needs a moment to blink it out. Kareckaite gets off a right hand around the guard, and they both land sing leg kicks. Barbosa tosses out a one-two and shoots in for takedown, and she rushes Kareckaite to the fence and looks for a trip and throw. The Brazilian easily slings her to the mat despite Kareckaite grabbing the cage, and she slips around to take Kareckaite’s back in a hurry. Before Kareckaite knows what is going on, Barbosa sneaks an arm under the chin, and Kareckaite has to fight it off while a body triangle cinches around her waist. Kareckaite sits up to break up the body lock, and Barbosa floats along and lands a number of short right hands before hunting for another choke. When Kareckaite defends, she leans over and tries to slide Barbosa out the back door. Barbosa hunts for a rear-naked choke and softens Kareckaite up with punches, and she keeps hooks in to thwart the turning Kareckaite from bucking her off. The Brazilian keeps smacking Kareckaite with short but effective right hands, and she turns over willingly to snatch up an armbar. Kareckaite keeps her stacked up and rides out the round in the position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa
Round 2
The ladies quickly bump fists before getting back to it, and Kareckaite lunges forward almost immediately with long punches. Barbosa strings together a short combination to wobble the long legs of her opponent, and she spins with a back elbow that hurts Kareckaite and drops her down to both hands. Kareckaite pushes off the mat, and Barbosa pushes forward to take her down. Kareckaite grabs the fence to stay upright, and Portella warns her for the foul. Kareckaite manages to break out of the position, and Barbosa rushes forward to strike the body and fake a spinning strike. Barbosa does a delayed step forward and surprises Kareckaite with a takedown effort, successfully grounding the Lithuanian. Kareckaite turns the corner and reverses the position, and she stands back up and starts smacking Barbosa’s legs with kicks. This exchange continues for quite some time, as Portella stands there instead of forcing Barbosa to stand up. Kareckaite keeps kicking until Portella finally gets between them. Barbosa stands up, and Kareckaite catches her with a clean one-two. Kareckaite looks for a right hand over the top, and she gets popped with another spinning back elbow. Kareckaite uses the momentum of her opponent to bowl her over to the ground, and Barbosa hits her back and snags hold of a heel hook. Kareckaite lowers herself down and turns the right way to get away from the leglock, but Barbosa speedily takes her back. Kareckaite attempts to turn through it, and Barbosa lines up an armbar setup. Kareckaite maintains heavy top pressure to disallow Barbosa from locking the armbar down, and she shucks the arms and legs out of the way to move into the guard. The horn sounds with them in this place.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa
Round 3
The women go strike-for-strike when the round begins, with one landing and the other responding. As Kareckaite gets off a solid right hand, Barbosa shoots for a telegraphed takedown. Kareckaite is able to sprawl effectively to shut it down, and she stands up and allows Barbosa to do so and flicks a head kick at her. Barbosa gets her guard up in time, but she gets backed up by the striking of her opponent. Kareckaite stings the Brazilian with a one-two, and Barbosa shoots in again. The takedown shot fails, and Kareckaite backs away and lands a few more times. A failed level change from Barbosa makes her just stumble, but she regains her footing and spins with a back kick that lands square on the ribcage. Kareckaite ignores it and slings a head kick at her and a series of long, rangy punches. Kareckaite shuts down another takedown, lets Barbosa up and rings her up with a hard one-two. Four quick punches land flush from the Lithuanian, and Barbosa is showing serious signs of fatigue. Kareckaite marches her down, tagging her with crisp punches and stopping Barbosa in her tracks from attempting takedowns. Kareckaite pushes Barbosa away after another takedown try, and she puts fists to face as Barbosa swings back. Barbosa comes up short on another takedown, but a second effort puts them down on the mat. Kareckaite turns through and winds up on top, where Barbosa hunts for a leglock almost immediately. Kareckaite holds onto the fence while turning herself through it, and she stands up and steps around to lower down two heavy punches on the jaw. Barbosa goes for another submission, but Kareckaite backs off and motions for her to stand up. Kareckaite walks face-first into a right hand, and she wings a right hand back that grazes the cheek. Kareckaite loads up on a right hand and forces Barbosa to dip down into a head kick. The Brazilian shoots desperately for a takedown at the 10-second slapper, and Kareckaite stifles her until the final horn blares. This could be a close one.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite (29-28 Kareckaite)
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite (29-28 Barbosa)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite (29-28 Barbosa)
The Official Result
Dione Barbosa def. Ernesta Kareckaite via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Barbosa as the grappler, noting she can control where the fight goes. He acknowledges her struggles closing distance and that Kareckaitė is the better striker, but believes Barbosa's grappling will prevail. He strongly advises against betting on this fight due to its low level.
Big Brady sees this as a striker vs grappler matchup. He likes Kareckaitė's high volume striking and cardio, and thinks her takedown defense is good enough to survive and win a volume-based decision. He notes Barbosa's BJJ but is not confident in her ability to get takedowns.
Cody picks Barbosa but is not super confident. He notes Barbosa's grappling advantage and Kareckaitė's lack of ground game. He expects Barbosa to mix takedowns and win a decision, but acknowledges it could be close.
Daniel Vreeland picks Barbosa, citing her judo background and superior grappling. He notes that Kareckaitė has good conditioning and volume on the feet, but Barbosa is nearly as good a striker and has a massive ground advantage. He expects Barbosa to get takedowns and control the fight, potentially by submission or decision.
This is a grappler versus striker matchup. Barbosa, a judo and BJJ black belt, should be able to get the fight to the ground and put Kareckaitė in bad positions, potentially leading to a submission. However, the ultimate prediction is Barbosa by decision.
Paul picks Barbosa, citing her grappling and takedown ability. He notes Kareckaitė has a reach advantage but poor ground game. Paul expects Barbosa to neutralize the striking and win on the ground.
The MMA Guru initially leans toward Ernesta Kareckaitė due to her kickboxing background and undefeated record, but after reviewing footage of Dione Barbosa taking down Josiane Nunes, he switches to Barbosa. He notes Barbosa's strength and win over Karine Silva as key factors, though he remains hesitant due to limited information.
Nicolle Caliari - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shauna Bannon | 0 | 29 of 49 | 59% | 158 of 183 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 50 of 68 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 | 0 | 9:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shauna Bannon | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 82 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 25 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 | |
| 2 | Shauna Bannon | 0 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 64 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 10 of 18 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 | |
| 3 | Shauna Bannon | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 15 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shauna Bannon | 29 of 49 | 59% | 16 of 31 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 7 | 19 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 9 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 20 of 38 | 52% | 18 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shauna Bannon | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 6 of 9 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Shauna Bannon | 20 of 28 | 71% | 13 of 18 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 10 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 9 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 6 of 14 | 42% | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | |
| 3 | Shauna Bannon | 7 of 14 | 50% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Kerry Hatley is the referee. They swing right away during a furious and brief exchange. Caliari closes distance and executes a throw, but Bannon is able to return to her feet. Not much later, Caliari executes another head-and-arm throw and lands inside full guard. Bannon is crafty from her back, as she neutralizes the Brazilian while looking for submission openings. Caliari stands briefly, but can’t clear the legs and ends up diving back into full guard. Caliari drives her forearm into her foe’s neck, while Bannon peppers her with annoying punches from her back. Caliari tires to stay busy with short punches to the ribs. Bannon creates a scramble with her guard but Caliari stands and drops a forceful right hand. Caliari shifts to a north-south position, and Bannon has her feet on the fence. Caliari looks to frame a kimura, but Bannon won’t allow the Brazilian to separate her hands. Calaria transitions to a back take just before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
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Round 2
Caliari is aggressive, pressing forward with punches before forcing the clinch. Caliari clings to a leg, pulls Bannon off the cage and then secures a rear body lock. Caliari is able to plant Bannon on the canvas, again landing in her foe’s full guard. Caliari drops an elbow and dives back into guard. Bannon throws more short strikes from her back. Bannon is able to create space with her guard. Caliari stands and Hatley orders a standup. Bannon pressures forward, but Caliarri responds and tags her. Caliari catches a kick and shoves Bannon into the wire. Bannon lands a sharp body kick and Caliari drops low for a takedown. Bannon defends well and turns her opponent into the cage. Bannon lands a short elbow in the clinch. Caliari counters with a throw attempt, but Bannon is able to reverse into top position. She sets up in half guard, where she lands a short elbow. Bannon is heavy on top, but Caliari is active on bottom trying to create scrambles. Bannon floats on top and she ends the round with some solid ground-and-pound.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bannon
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bannon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bannon
Round 3
Bannon fires off a jab and a pair of low kicks. Bannon moves in with a 1-2 and moves away. Caliari turns up the aggression, flurrying with a short punching combination before shoving the Irishwoman into the fence. Caliari denies a hip toss from her foe and rolls into top position. An earlier punching flurry seems to have had a pernicious effect on Bannon’s face, as she has a serious mouse over her left eye. Caliari seems to be in control in half guard, applying pressure while landing short punches and elbows from above. The Brazilian is thinking about an arm triangle. Caliari applies the squeeze and the passes to the correct side to complete the choke. Bannon has no choice but to tap out. A successful strawweight debut for Caliari, who has her first UFC victory to boot.
The Official Result
Nicolle Caliari def. Shauna Bannon via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) R3 3:08
Angelo picks Nicolle Caliari, heavily criticizing Shauna Bannon's skills, especially her BJJ. He believes Caliari can get the fight to the ground and will have a massive advantage there. He calls Bannon one of the worst fighters on the roster and expects Caliari to win easily.
Big Brady picks Nicolle Caliari confidently, citing her wrestling and judo advantage over Shauna Bannon. He notes Bannon's poor takedown defense and lack of power, and expects Caliari to exploit this on the ground. He predicts a second-round submission, as Bannon has shown vulnerability to grappling.
Cody is confident in Nicolle Caliari, noting that Shauna Bannon has poor takedown defense (40%) and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Caliari is willing to shoot takedowns and has good grappling. Bannon is a point-based karate stylist who relies on distance, but Caliari can close the distance, take her down, and dominate on the ground. Cody expects Caliari to get her first UFC win.
Connor picks Caliari, agreeing with Zane. He notes Bannon is not an athlete and struggles to generate power, while Caliari is a physical powerhouse. Bannon's only wins are over other non-athletes, and she was dominated by Sam Hughes.
Caliari is a good offensive wrestler with decent cardio, and Bannon's takedown defense and ground game are very bad. Bannon will have the advantage on the feet but will likely spend most of the fight on the ground. Caliari should win easily, but the odds are too short to bet.
Lucrative James picks Nicolle Caliari, believing she can take Bannon down and dominate on the mat. He notes Bannon's vulnerability to wrestlers and Caliari's toughness and power. He predicts a decision win for Caliari, possibly with a submission.
The host believes Caliari's physicality and grappling will be the difference, as she can grind out takedowns and control the fight. However, he is hesitant to trust the chalk on Caliari at -240, noting Bannon's striking style could cause problems. He predicts Caliari by decision but prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop.
The host picks Montaño (Nicolle Caliari) over Shauna Bannon, citing Montaño's judo and physicality to drag the fight into uncomfortable positions for Bannon, leading to a decision win. He is surprised Montaño is such a heavy favorite but acknowledges the low level of both fighters.
Paul also picks Nicolle Caliari, noting that he will never back Shauna Bannon again after she was knocked down by Puya Tomar. He believes Caliari can mix in wrestling and keep it competitive on the feet, while Bannon's strikes lack power. He parlayed Caliari with Daniel Santos earlier in the week.
Zane picks Caliari because she is a physical powerhouse who should bully Bannon. Bannon is a non-athlete with no power, coming from a traditional martial arts background, and has lost to physical powerhouses. Caliari has fought tough competition and hung with them.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carli Judice | 1 | 109 of 225 | 48% | 117 of 235 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 32 of 101 | 31% | 35 of 104 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carli Judice | 0 | 38 of 78 | 48% | 44 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 13 of 42 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 | |
| 2 | Carli Judice | 0 | 47 of 108 | 43% | 49 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 16 of 51 | 31% | 17 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Carli Judice | 1 | 24 of 39 | 61% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carli Judice | 109 of 225 | 48% | 85 of 193 | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 96 of 210 | 10 of 12 | 3 of 3 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 32 of 101 | 31% | 26 of 85 | 3 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 30 of 98 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carli Judice | 38 of 78 | 48% | 26 of 62 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 70 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 11 of 40 | 27% | 8 of 32 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carli Judice | 47 of 108 | 43% | 41 of 101 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 107 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 16 of 51 | 31% | 13 of 44 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carli Judice | 24 of 39 | 61% | 18 of 30 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Judice (-278), Caliari (+225)
Round 1
It’s time for another pay-per-view, this time with no divisional belt on top. While there may be a “BMF Title” exchange at night’s end, the promotion has already shown that it can be taken and bestowed to any match that needs a marketing boost. Additionally, its holder does not surrender it on a loss like a linear belt, making it a shiny, expensive trophy that tends to involve a celebrity draping it around the victor. That celebrity tonight will likely be Lil Wayne. Before all that, we have a bakers’ dozen matchups to plow through. Flyweights will be first to the cage, as head kick aficionado Judice (4-2, 1-1 UFC), who trains out of Headkicks MMA, battles Brazil’s Caliari (8-3, 0-1 UFC). The ladies will receive oversight from referee Bassel Mahgoub to start things off, and they bump gloves to seal the cage around them.
Caliari gets right to business, chasing after “Crispy” with a combination of punches and ending it with a head kick. She pitches a similar flurry when Judice backpedals to defend herself. Judice parries the worst of the attacks and jabs out with her lead fist and front kick. Caliari crashes forward with a left hand, and Judice responds with a body kick and an overhand left. Judice splits the guard with a second punch, and she steps in to stun Caliari with a knee. Caliari responds with a tackling takedown, dragging the American to her knees for a moment. Judice wall-walks to get upright despite Caliari clinging around her waist from behind, and she fights off a few mat return efforts while leaned on the cage. The fans are quick to express restlessness, letting the flyweights have it with boos until Judice breaks away. When they reset, Judice jams Caliari in the jaw with a sharp knee.
Caliari shakes it off and pursues a half-baked takedown, and Judice stops her subsequent head-and-arm throw to put Caliari on her face. Caliari now is the one having to work to her feet, and Judice frames off by pegging her with elbows and a knee. Caliari takes a few steps back, and Judice gives chase with a front kick and a barrage of fists. Caliari tries to respond with power strikes, reddening up Judice’s nose, but she finds herself dealing with the counters that quickly come. Caliari rushes after a takedown, and Judice slings her to the floor defensively and hovers over her before standing up. Caliari thinks about another, but she is stonewalled and takes jabs on the nose. Justice sticks and moves, walking into a big right hand but giving Caliari a clean left down the middle and following it with a powerful knee. Caliari ties her up, but Judice turns her around and holds her there to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Round 2
The flyweights bop fists to get going, where Judice is quick to fight behind her sharp jab. She targets the damaged right eye of the Brazilian with it, working on it to make it swell more with every blow. Caliari takes a body kick and tries to catch it to get a takedown, but Judice recoils her limb and keeps peppering the face with jabs and quick follow-ups. Judice slips to the left and tags Caliari in the swollen eye socket, and she is rarely missing her strikes while her volume easily triples that of her adversary. Judice is basically engaging in target practice, with Caliari offering little resistance more than a takedown shot. Judice shuts it down quickly and pushes Caliari to the wall, where she knees her in the midsection several times. Caliari races forward for a takedown, and Judice pushes her to the floor before Caliari can even go after a leg.
Caliari stands up and starts swinging, clipping “Crispy” at the end of a left hand. She fires off a low kick, and this draws a combination in response from Judice. Caliari is putting more behind her punches, while Judice is more than happy touching her, pop pop pop and she slides to the side. The thumping sounds that echo through the building are the ferocious knees that Judice is planting on the torso, and Caliari takes them flush without flinching. Judice potshots her swelling foe with ease, ducking the counters and otherwise playing matador when Caliari winds up. Judice fakes a knee and strings together a series of punches, while dancing out of the way of the inevitable counters. Judice lets go with a high kick that is blocked, and her punches fly through the guard and onto the Brazilian’s jaw. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Judice
Round 3
There is one last glove touch to commence the final frame, and Caliari is wide-eyed and aware of the oncoming fire that she is about to receive. This allows her to dodge the nastiest of what Judice hurls at her, but the sheer volume from the American makes it difficult to avoid everything. Caliari plants her feet and loops a big left hand at her foe, only for Judice to ignore it and dig a few body shots. Caliari crashes the pocket in pursuit of a takedown, and she manages to ground her foe for a second. Judice explodes to her feet and starts boxing up Caliari. The combinations flow freely from “Crispy,” who is roasting her opponent from punching range. She backs Caliari up to the fencing, practically hitting a 125-pound heavy bag at this point, and
she lines up a knee up the middle. This time, Caliari ducks down for a takedown shot, and the contact is immediate and devastating. For one wild moment, Judice channels her inner Hannibal Lecter, feasting on Caliari’s liver with some fava beans and a nice Chianti. Somewhere in the world, Jason DeLucia screams due to phantom pains from his three encounters against Bas Rutten in years past. Judice has to do little more but drive down two academic hammerfists that make Mahgoub hurry up and stop the fight.
Just like that, Judice has earned her fifth pro victory, with all five of them coming by knockout.
The Official Result
Carli Judice def. Nicolle Caliari R3 1:30 via TKO (Knee to the Body)
Angelo picks Carli Judice as the better striker who will do more damage and try to finish. He notes that Judice can be taken down but scrambles well, while Caliari is a busy grappler who can lose positions by being too aggressive. He also factors in the Louisiana commission, which may value takedowns more, but still favors Judice's striking.
Big Brady favors Carli Judice due to superior striking, higher volume, and better defense. He acknowledges Nicolle Caliari's grappling and black belt but doubts she can get takedowns or outstrike Judice. He predicts Judice cruises to a decision win if she stuffs takedowns.
The host expects Judice to manage distance, utilize volume and output, and pick apart Caliari from distance en route to a decision victory. This suggests a clear confidence in Judice's ability to control the fight and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Carli Judice based on a common opponent comparison with Carrier Kate. He notes that Carrier Kate clearly beat Nicolle Caliari but was robbed by the judges, while Judice arguably beat Carrier Kate on the Contender Series. He also highlights Judice's height and reach advantages (5'7" vs 5'3", 68" vs 62" reach) and believes she will be better at dealing with Caliari's takedowns. He expects Judice to win by decision or TKO, citing her momentum from a headkick KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 95 of 226 | 42% | 126 of 266 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 67 of 166 | 40% | 86 of 194 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 27 of 63 | 42% | 35 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 25 of 45 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 | |
| 2 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 36 of 86 | 41% | 45 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 24 of 66 | 36% | 28 of 72 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 0 | 32 of 77 | 41% | 46 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 0 | 22 of 59 | 37% | 33 of 77 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernesta Kareckaitė | 95 of 226 | 42% | 77 of 199 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 87 of 213 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 67 of 166 | 40% | 36 of 120 | 22 of 35 | 9 of 11 | 63 of 156 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 27 of 63 | 42% | 19 of 54 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 57 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 21 of 41 | 51% | 13 of 30 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 18 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 36 of 86 | 41% | 31 of 76 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 34 of 80 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 24 of 66 | 36% | 14 of 52 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 24 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ernesta Kareckaitė | 32 of 77 | 41% | 27 of 69 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolle Caliari | 22 of 59 | 37% | 9 of 38 | 11 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Two women with significantly different styles will clash as the prelims roll on at the 125-pound range. Despite losing her first UFC outing, Kareckaite (5-1-1, 0-1 UFC) comes in as a fairly heavy betting favorite against Brazilian finisher Caliari (8-2, 0-0 UFC) in the latter’s first stint in the Octagon. The Lithuanian will have 15 minutes or less to prove that a bet on her is worthwhile, and Caliari knows just one mistake is all she needs to get the job done. Referee Kerry Hatley draws the charge for this matchup, one that opens up as the ladies clap hands. Kareckaite immediately try to take advantage of her significant reach advantage, pawing out jabs and getting met with an early leg kick. Kareckaite comes up just short with a one-two, and Caliari pushes her away and gets off a low kick. Kareckaite strikes her way into a clinch, and Caliari pulls away and gets caught with a few punches from the Lithuanian. Caliari fires back, and she connects with a few punches and chains them into a takedown attempt. Kareckaite stands upright and turns her around, but Caliari is singularly focused on the grappling. Caliari sneaks in a few uppercuts before deciding to separate, and she ducks a right hand to tag the longer woman with quick strikes. Kareckaite reaches her with a long right hand, and she strings several more together in rapid succession as Caliari’s eyes go wide. The Brazilian looks to slow things down with a takedown attempt, and Kareckaite bucks her way out of it and pops Caliari with a right hand. Caliari is ready to bang when the attempt fails, as she uses her fast hands to set up tackling takedown efforts. Caliari drags Kareckaite’s leg far away to force her to do a split, and she briefly grounds the Lithuanian as a result. Kareckaite pops right back up, and Caliari is tightly wrapped around her as they clinch. The two trade knees and hand-fight until they break apart. Caliari lands first, Kareckaite counters, and the former gives her something back to think about. Kareckaite rifles off long, straight punches, and a head kick is blocked but the front kick that follows is not. Kareckaite drills Caliari with a slew of punches until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Caliari
Round 2
The ladies tap their hands together before getting going, and Kareckaite picks up where she leads off with long strikes. She does not keep a solid defense, as Caliari meets her with blistering elbows and short but effective shots in response. Caliari ducks a right hand to snap Kareckaite’s head back with a right hand, and this forces Kareckaite to clinch with her to blink out the surprisingly heavy blow. Caliari backs her foe off with her hands, and she gets smacked with a left hand and shoots in for her own takedown. Kareckaite stifles it, circles around in hopes of taking the back and settles for Caliari to roll to her back. The Brazilian clings to Kareckaite, attempting to control Kareckaite’s arms and get hold of a submission. Kareckaite escapes before a leglock materializes, and when she stands right in front of Caliari, the two trade leather. Kareckaite goes to the body to break things up, and Caliari follows suit and rips two left hands to the liver. Kareckaite takes the punches and hurls a few back, but Caliari’s appear more effective when they exchange. The Brazilian goes over the top with a kick, and her left hand continues to score on Kareckaite’s midsection. Kareckaite counters a leg kick with a right hand, and both women suffer damage to their noses as they connect one after the other. Caliari fails on a trip takedown, and she sells out for an uppercut and gets countered hard. Kareckaite strings four punches together before Caliari can pay her back, but Caliari is more than willing to trade violently. They take turns punching one another in the face, defense at a premium, and two hooks from Caliari get Kareckaite’s attention before the round ends with a failed takedown.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kareckaite
Round 3
After a speedy glove touch, the flyweights resume throwing hands. Caliari walks through the long, rangy punches to scoop up uppercuts. Caliari mixes up a handful of headshots with a couple to the body, and they go tit-for-tat as they appear to be enjoying the striking affair. Kareckaite puts her fist on the chin again and again, and she lets Caliari clinch with her so she can pound her with a knee. Caliari hammers her opponent with a left to the body, and Kareckaite is right there in front of her clubbing her with a right hand. Kareckaite stops a takedown attempt, partially thanks to a few fence grabs, and Caliari hooks a leg around hers to try to wrench her down. Caliari again strips the leg away like before, but Kareckaite gathers herself before having to deal with a split. The Lithuanian, breaking away from the clinch, does not stay away from Caliari for long. Caliari puts a few one-twos on the jaw and dives after a takedown, but the latter does not get there. Caliari keeps working the body, and a number of right hands have drawn some swelling on Kareckaite’s left eyebrow. Caliari fakes a takedown to deliver a knee to the body, and she times Kareckaite lifting her left up to tackle her to the canvas. Caliari is active when on top, but most of her strikes are blocked or deflected. Kareckaite slugs it out from her back, and the two beat on one another right until the match’s conclusion.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Caliari (29-28 Caliari)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Caliari (29-28 Caliari)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Caliari (29-28 Caliari)
The Official Result
Ernesta Kareckaite def. Nicolle Caliari via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Ernesta Kareckaitė, citing her superior striking, footwork, and length. He notes that Nicolle Caliari's takedowns are mediocre, and while Ernesta's takedown defense is also mediocre, he expects the striking battle to favor Ernesta. He suggests that a plus 3.5 spread bet on Nicolle could be valuable if the odds are plus money, as he sees the fight going to a close decision. He does not expect a finish.
Big Brady disagrees with the odds, thinking this is a close fight. He acknowledges Kareckaitė's size, reach, cardio, and volume, but believes Caliari has the grappling advantage and can land bigger shots. He notes Caliari has improved her grappling since her contender series win and has power. He predicts Caliari wins by decision, using wrestling and grappling to win minutes.
Cody picks Kareckaitė but with low confidence, noting her high volume striking but poor takedown defense. He sees Caliari's submission threat but believes Kareckaitė's cardio and experience give her the edge. He advises passing on this fight.
Daniel notes Kareckaitė's length and volume will be a problem for the shorter Caliari, but Caliari could get takedowns and grind. He thinks Kareckaitė will pick her apart at range, but the -260 odds offer no value. He picks the favorite but calls it a dog-or-pass situation.
Kareckaitė's 6-inch height and 9-inch reach advantage will allow her to keep Caliari at the end of her punches, land more volume, and win on the scorecards. Both earned UFC contracts via the Contender Series last season.
Paul also picks Kareckaitė but is not confident. He notes her volume and physicality but acknowledges Caliari's submission game. He says he doesn't care for this fight and would rather pass.
The Guru picks Caliari, citing her Brazilian background, consistent finishes, and good submission skills. He notes Kareckaitė is a rangy kickboxer but thinks Caliari will get takedowns and a submission. He acknowledges Kareckaitė's youth (26) and win over Kari Judice but sides with Caliari's grappling.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Ernesta Kareckaitė, citing her superior striking, footwork, and length. He notes that Nicolle Caliari's takedowns are mediocre, and while Ernesta's takedown defense is also mediocre, he expects the striking battle to favor Ernesta. He suggests that a plus 3.5 spread bet on Nicolle could be valuable if the odds are plus money, as he sees the fight going to a close decision. He does not expect a finish.
Big Brady disagrees with the odds, thinking this is a close fight. He acknowledges Kareckaitė's size, reach, cardio, and volume, but believes Caliari has the grappling advantage and can land bigger shots. He notes Caliari has improved her grappling since her contender series win and has power. He predicts Caliari wins by decision, using wrestling and grappling to win minutes.
Cody picks Kareckaitė but with low confidence, noting her high volume striking but poor takedown defense. He sees Caliari's submission threat but believes Kareckaitė's cardio and experience give her the edge. He advises passing on this fight.
Daniel notes Kareckaitė's length and volume will be a problem for the shorter Caliari, but Caliari could get takedowns and grind. He thinks Kareckaitė will pick her apart at range, but the -260 odds offer no value. He picks the favorite but calls it a dog-or-pass situation.
Kareckaitė's 6-inch height and 9-inch reach advantage will allow her to keep Caliari at the end of her punches, land more volume, and win on the scorecards. Both earned UFC contracts via the Contender Series last season.
Paul also picks Kareckaitė but is not confident. He notes her volume and physicality but acknowledges Caliari's submission game. He says he doesn't care for this fight and would rather pass.
The Guru picks Caliari, citing her Brazilian background, consistent finishes, and good submission skills. He notes Kareckaitė is a rangy kickboxer but thinks Caliari will get takedowns and a submission. He acknowledges Kareckaitė's youth (26) and win over Kari Judice but sides with Caliari's grappling.
Comments (1)
Mostly took a beating in rd1, nice punches from Ern at this level. Nicolle did a nice reep trip, the use of the leg was solid.
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