Career Averages - Santiago Ponzinibbio
Career Averages - Carlston Harris
Santiago Ponzinibbio - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 49 of 111 | 44% | 50 of 115 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 66 of 166 | 39% | 70 of 170 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 35 of 81 | 43% | 35 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 27 of 60 | 45% | 28 of 64 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 22 of 63 | 34% | 26 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 49 of 111 | 44% | 31 of 83 | 6 of 16 | 12 of 12 | 49 of 111 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 66 of 166 | 39% | 39 of 131 | 20 of 25 | 7 of 10 | 64 of 164 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15 of 35 | 42% | 5 of 19 | 3 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 35 of 81 | 43% | 20 of 61 | 13 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 34 of 80 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 27 of 60 | 45% | 21 of 51 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 22 of 63 | 34% | 13 of 53 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 22 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 9 of 22 | 40% | 6 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Daniel Rodriguez, expecting him to be the cleaner striker and apply forward pressure. He notes that Ponzinibbio tends to get busted up and that Rodriguez can take over after the first round. He also mentions a potential over 1.5 rounds bet if available.
Big Brady leans slightly toward Daniel Rodriguez in a close fight between two aging fighters. He notes that Ponzinibbio's durability is questionable, as he wobbles when hit, while Rodriguez has better volume and durability at this stage. However, both are 38 and have looked rough recently. Brady expects a competitive fight that goes the distance, with judges likely favoring Rodriguez based on optics.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Ponzinibbio's power and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez. He notes that Rodriguez is a slow starter and a slow mover, making it unlikely he can hurt Ponzinibbio consistently. Connor points out that Ponzinibbio has retained his ability to knock people out even when fights are going poorly, while Rodriguez's offense has diminished.
Ponzinibbio has slowed and his durability is a concern, but Rodriguez doesn't have the power to exploit that. Ponzinibbio will dictate the pace, land more impactful shots, and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, describing him as a lifelong martial artist who is more well-rounded than Daniel Rodriguez, whom he calls a 'street dude with hands.' He believes Ponzinibbio will win a decision by getting takedowns at the end of rounds to sway judges. He notes that Rodriguez has declined due to injuries and poor grappling decisions.
Zane picks Ponzinibbio, noting that despite his decline, he retains a clear process of pressure boxing and fight-changing power. He contrasts this with Rodriguez, who is slower and less sharp as a counterpuncher. Zane expects Ponzinibbio to start slow but take over by round three, swarming Rodriguez with combinations. He believes Rodriguez lacks the offensive potential to put Ponzinibbio away and will be outworked.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 1 | 76 of 175 | 43% | 76 of 175 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Carlston Harris | 1 | 73 of 196 | 37% | 78 of 211 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlston Harris | 1 | 37 of 79 | 46% | 37 of 79 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 27 of 70 | 38% | 27 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlston Harris | 0 | 28 of 86 | 32% | 28 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 1 | 27 of 57 | 47% | 27 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Carlston Harris | 0 | 8 of 31 | 25% | 13 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 76 of 175 | 43% | 57 of 151 | 8 of 11 | 11 of 13 | 72 of 165 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 |
| Carlston Harris | 73 of 196 | 37% | 40 of 142 | 19 of 39 | 14 of 15 | 73 of 195 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 22 of 48 | 45% | 13 of 39 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlston Harris | 37 of 79 | 46% | 20 of 51 | 8 of 18 | 9 of 10 | 37 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 27 of 70 | 38% | 21 of 62 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlston Harris | 28 of 86 | 32% | 15 of 66 | 8 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 28 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 27 of 57 | 47% | 23 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 23 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 |
| Carlston Harris | 8 of 31 | 25% | 5 of 25 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In the co-headlining spot, two action welterweights throw down with aspirations of making one last run in a division unkind to the elderly. At the age of 38, Ponzinibbio (29-8, 11-7 UFC) knows his back is against the wall, and four losses in his last five fights do not help his case. Harris (19-6, 4-2 UFC), at 37, is not in as dire of a roster situation, but his chin was checked by Kalinn Williams last year in a gnarly way. The exciting combatants will collide as referee Kerry Hatley watches on, aware that this one could end with one concussive blow. There is a glove touch first, and Ponzinibbio stalks down the taller man early on. Harris tries to use his range to jab out and keep Ponzinibbio away, and he kicks at the front leg as well. Ponzinibbio jabs him back, brushing past a left hook to rifle off a one-two on the chin. Ponzinibbio goes to the body with another one-two, and Harris hops back and forth while kicking the plant leg again. Ponzinibbio connects at the end of a right hand, and Harris counters well enough to make Ponzinibbio reset. Harris jabs to the head and midsection, and his right hook brushes the waist. When Ponzinibbio sells out for a hook, Harris shoots even lower for a takedown, but the effort is for naught as he is completely shut down. Ponzinibbio further backs him away with a one-two and a low kick, and he blocks the head kick that zips at his melon. Harris gets off a short left hook to the ribs, and he aims another to the same spot. Ponzinibbio sways and moves, evading the worst of the strikes and lobbing big right hands back at the lankier man. They clash legs together when kicking, and Ponzinibbio scores and takes fire as they trade leather. A one-two from Ponzinibbio leads to a takedown effort from “Mocambique,” but Harris still cannot get him down. Instead, it is the power left from Harris that gets Ponzinibbio’s attention, staggering the fighter from Argentina after a blitz. Harris lobs a big right hand that puts Ponzinibbio to the ground, and he somehow opens a cut on the back of Ponzinibbio’s head wrapping the strike around him. Harris drills Ponzinibbio with a one-two that sets him down, and Ponzinibbio scrambles and gets to his feet. A kick from Harris nearly puts Ponzinibbio down again, and he gets up and clutches the back of his head as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Harris
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Harris
Round 2
The welterweights touch ‘em up, with Ponzinibbio appearing to have his feet beneath him again. Harris does not blitz him, instead jabbing to the body and measuring with his clubbing left hook head of winding it up. Ponzinibbio works the front leg twice to turn Harris about, and he sways away from a hook aimed his direction. Ponzinibbio walks through a low kick to put two punches on Harris’ chin, and Harris tanks them and responds in kind. Ponzinibbio blazes out with a one-two, and the right side of Harris’ face is bloodied up and swelling from absorbing strikes. Harris ducks a big left hand, and a jab draws blood from his mouth. The Argentinian doubles up on a jab and follows with a right that gets Harris’ attention, and Harris shoots for a takedown that is stopped in its tracks. Harris digs an uppercut to the body when Ponzinibbio bends over, and Ponzinibbio clubs him back with an overhand right. Splitting the guard with a right hand, Ponzinibbio gets through, but Harris knocks him back and then drops him with a jab. Ponzinibbio bounces up to his feet as if he had springs in his shorts, and he gets right in Harris’ face to keep throwing hands. Harris uses his longer range to chew up Ponzinibbio from his own preferred distance, and a leg kick from Harris disrupts Ponzinibbio’s movement briefly. Because of this, Ponzinibbio winds up and misses with a right hand, and he is in the wrong spot when Harris catches him with a right hook over the top. Harris digs to lefts to the liver to follow, and Ponzinibbio goes to the sternum with a left hand. They trade hooks at the same time, and their chins hold up even though they are taking massive damage at this point. Harris kicks, his foot is caught, and he still loops a left hand at his man. Ponzinibbio swings back with a vengeance, and Harris’ jab keeps him honest. Ponzinibbio comes up short with a one-two, and the horn sounds at matching lands.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Round 3
To the surprise of some, the fighters have reached the third round, and they high-five to celebrate their handiwork. Harris commences the round with a tackling takedown effort, and Ponzinibbio pitches him out of the way like a farmer tossing sacks of grain around. Harris rolls to his back and welcomes Ponzinibbio into the guard, and he forces a scramble that allows him to fight to his feet. They resets in kickboxing range, with Ponzinibbio loading up on right hands as he chases after Harris. Harris lets loose with a right hand that buzzes past his target, and both men land cleanly with power. Harris jabs the body and absorbs a one-two to the chest, and he slips when advancing but does not lose his footing. Harris doubles up on body shots with his left hook, and he kicks the same spot. Ponzinibbio scores with a big left and a heavy right, rocking Harris badly. Harris wobbles back, absorbing another fierce right hand on the jaw, and he is somehow on his feet despite getting blasted. Ponzinibbio unloads everything he has, setting Harris down, and Harris tries to engage his grappling as a safety valve. Ponzinibbio wants nothing to do with it and backs off to let Harris up, and he connects with looping lethal strikes. Harris gets rocked from one side of the cage to the other, but he is still in the fight and swings back with reckless abandon.
Ponzinibbio sets him down to a knee with a clubbing power shot, and Hatley rushes forward but pulls back before stopping the fight. Harris stands back up and lets his hands go, and during an exchange, Hatley inexplicably gets between them to stop the fight and save Harris from further punishment.
Harris is understandably upset because even though he took massive damage and was on baby deer legs, he was engaging and striking his opponent. Like the odd stoppage in the Curtis fight, the protests from the losing fighter fall on deaf ears. Ponzinibbio leaps out of the cage to high-five the commentary booth, and Harris quickly regains his cool and is all smiles after an uproarious battle.
The Official Result
Santiago Ponzinibbio def. Carlston Harris R3 3:13 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, citing his speed, cleaner striking, and better cardio. He notes that Carlston Harris has more power and aggressive grappling, but believes Ponzinibbio's volume and pressure will win. He expresses concern about Ponzinibbio's commentating job potentially distracting him, but still picks him. He mentions Ponzinibbio was an underdog but may flip to favorite.
Big Brady likes Harris's grappling advantage, noting his elite submission game and front chokes. He thinks Ponzinibbio's chin is declining, having been knocked out by the Leech and Kevin Holland. He believes Harris has more ways to win, either by submission or a club-and-sub. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop, as both guys have poor durability and can finish each other.
Cody picks Ponzinibbio despite his recent 2-5 record, arguing that Harris is also flawed with poor takedown accuracy and stiff striking. He believes Ponzinibbio's veteran savvy, range, and power will allow him to land first. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a knockout.
Connor picks Ponzinibbio because Harris is fundamentally bad at MMA, relying on wild aggression and grappling without structure. Ponzinibbio is a good defensive wrestler and strong in the clinch, and his straight punches and footwork make him difficult to clinch against. While Ponzinibbio is older and slower, he still has a process and toughness, and his losses have come against sharp strikers, not wild punchers like Harris. Connor notes that if Ponzinibbio loses, it would be his worst loss since 2011.
Daniel notes both fighters are washed up and chinny, but historically Ponzinibbio was one fight away from a title shot and has better credentials. He thinks Ponzinibbio's experience and jab/straight right will be enough, though he's not confident. He mentions Harris has dangerous front chokes but Ponzinibbio rarely shoots. He picks Ponzinibbio to win and retire.
Lucrative James gives a lean toward Santiago Ponzinibbio, but admits he hasn't done extensive research. He believes Ponzinibbio is the better striker and can defend takedowns, while Harris's best chance is an early knockout. He predicts a decision win for Ponzinibbio in a lackluster fight. He cautions that this is an early read and he may not bet it.
Ponzinibbio's technical striking should allow him to pick apart Harris and eventually find a knockout, but he must be wary of Harris's big power and reckless swinging. As long as Ponzinibbio's speed hasn't diminished, he should find openings to put Harris away.
Paul leans toward Harris as a slight plus-money underdog, citing Ponzinibbio's age and damage absorbed. He notes Harris's crafty submission game and power, but admits both are flawed. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds as a bet rather than the moneyline.
The Guru picks Ponzinibbio despite questioning why this is a co-main event. He notes Ponzinibbio's split decision loss to Muslim Salikhov and leg kicks against Holland, and his win over Alex Morono. He contrasts Harris's inactivity, age (37), and KO loss to Chaos Williams. He acknowledges Ponzinibbio's recent chinny reputation but thinks he's good enough to beat Harris.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Ponzinibbio has not lost his innate understanding of how to fight and is still tough. He points out that Ponzinibbio's recent losses are to elite fighters, and he has competed well against fringe contenders. Harris, despite being a natural athlete, has poor technique and has never been that good. Zane also mentions that Ponzinibbio's pattern of slow starts and strong finishes could be a factor, but Harris is unlikely to capitalize early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 41 of 117 | 35% | 42 of 118 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 46 of 121 | 38% | 69 of 146 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 14 of 43 | 32% | 14 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 17 of 37 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 16 of 45 | 35% | 16 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 14 of 48 | 29% | 16 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 12 of 30 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 36 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muslim Salikhov | 41 of 117 | 35% | 31 of 102 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 8 | 40 of 116 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 46 of 121 | 38% | 20 of 87 | 20 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 45 of 120 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muslim Salikhov | 14 of 43 | 32% | 9 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 17 of 37 | 45% | 7 of 27 | 8 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Muslim Salikhov | 16 of 45 | 35% | 13 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 14 of 48 | 29% | 7 of 37 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Muslim Salikhov | 11 of 29 | 37% | 9 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15 of 36 | 41% | 6 of 23 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ponzinibbio (-205), Salikhov (+170)
Round 1
From one pair of knockout artists to another we go, this time in the welterweight division. The co-main event presents powerful Argentinian Ponzinibbio (29-7, 11-6 UFC) against the self-proclaimed “King of Kung Fu” Salikhov (19-5, 6-4 UFC), and both men celebrate the majority of their victories via strikes. Unfortunately for the aging 170ers, they have each gone 1-3 in their last four, so a win would mean keeping things going while a defeat might push them closer towards the end. Referee Dan Miragliotta will be the third man in the Octagon, and he steps back as the heavy hitters touch ‘em up. Ponzinibbio pushes the pace early, jabbing his way forward only to get pushed back by a front kick. Salikhov delivers a solid kick to the body as he shifts to the side, and he lands one on the lead leg and has a head kick blocked right after. Ponzinibbio whiffs on a low kick, and Salikhov leaps at him with a left hook that grazes the jaw. Salikhov tries that strike again, and Ponzinibbio sees it coming and parries it, following with a high kick. Salikhov blocks it and gives him one back, and that too bounces off the guard. Salikhov lands a body kick backing up, and he cannot get away from a jab to his ribs. Salikhov spins with no telegraphing and has it ricochet off the shoulder, and he bursts his way into a short combo of punches. Ponzinibbio lands with two of three punches on his way forward, catching the Russian and bullying him back to the wire. Ponzinibbio lands a calf kick and protects his mug from an overhand right, and he ducks a spinning back fist and stumbles—not from absorbing the blow, but from dodging it. Ponzinibbio wags his finger to signal the strike did not land, and he recovers and stays evasive to not get caught with subsequent strikes from the “King of Kung Fu.” Salikhov connects with a left hand, and Ponzinibbio counters and drops Salikhov. The Russian gets back to his feet, and Ponzinibbio is marching him down winding up with serious power. Salikhov drives him back with a solid uppercut, but not before a cut opens up on the inner eyebrow. Both men appear to slip on the canvas surface but not because of damage, and they race at one another to trade. Salikhov lands a heavy right hand, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Round 2
The fighters clap hands to begin the second stanza, and Salikhov takes two attempts to blitz forward and pulls back each time. He then spins with a wheel kick that buzzes past the jaw, and he keeps spinning, this time with a back fist. Ponzinibbio backs him away with a few jabs and a head kick, and he pushes aside a front kick to wing a right hand. Salikhov scores two left hooks before spinning with a back kick to the ribs, and Ponzinibbio no-sells it and tries to respond with a left. Salikhov has another spin broken up when Ponzinibbio rushes him, and they bounce off one another and reset. Salikhov jabs out with his toes outstretched, and they tag one another with punches. Ponzinibbio appears to get the worse of a left hand, and Salikhov gives chase and swarms him with big punches. Ponzinibbio absorbs a spinning wheel kick, where even while blocked it further staggers him. Ponzinibbio rebounds off the fencing and finds his footing again, and he swings his way forward to close the distance and stay out of kicking range. Salikhov responds with a looping right hook that does not connect and a low kick that does. Salikhov tries another wheel kick, but Ponzinibbio is wise to it and gets up close and personal. The Russian allows him to do this so he can time an uppercut, and he plants the ball of his foot on Ponzinibbio’s sternum for good measure. Ponzinibbio drives home a one-two, and Salikhov trips him up with a takedown effort. Salikhov cannot keep him down, and they return upright to trade hands. The Argentinian fighter swings inaccurately with two hooks, and his foe answers him with a front kick and a leaping punch. Salikhov has a left hook parried, and he jumps forward with a second that is ducked. Spinning with a kick to the body, Salikhov lands the strike but finds himself on his seat a moment later when Ponzinibbio surprises him with a takedown. Ponzinibbio hangs on until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Round 3
The fighters shake hands and bro-hug to commence the last round, and strikes are soon to follow. Salikhov lands a swiping left hook and hops back to avoid a low kick, and the Argentinian ducks to avoid a second. Salikhov spams front kicks, and Ponzinibbio lets fly a right hook that bangs into the temple. Salikhov wears it well and is jabbed back by subsequent strikes, but he gathers steam and marches forward landing a front kick. Both fighters trade hooks, and Salikhov dodges a leg kick and spins with a wheel kick that does not connect. A trio of punches from the Russian do not find their home, and he whips a left hook that grazes the top of his foe’s head. Ponzinibbio rushes after him with a pair of punches and is pushed back by a teep kick, only to crash the pocket and push “King of Kung Fu” to the cage wall. Salikhov breaks away and strafes one direction and then the other, and he has a telegraphed left hook miss the mark by a wide margin. Ponzinibbio attempts a single that is easily stopped, although he does manage to put Salikhov against the cage wall. A second attempt manages to bring Salikhov to his knees, and he drapes himself over Salikhov while keeping him on a single knee. Salikhov takes a seat, and Ponzinibbio thinks about moving around to take the back but decides instead to pursue top position. Ponzinibbio slows the fight to a crawl by holding the Russian down, and Salikhov sucks wind and tries with all his might to stand. He eventually gets back to his feet, and Ponzinibbio is dead set on getting that takedown again. The last try fails, and the close fight ends in a clinch while the crowd showers them with boos.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio (29-28 Ponzinibbio)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio (29-28 Ponzinibbio)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio (29-28 Ponzinibbio)
The Official Result
Muslim Salikhov def. Santiago Ponzinibbio via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, believing he will dominate the striking exchanges and that Muslim Salikhov will fade at elevation. He notes that both fighters are older and coming off losses, but Ponzinibbio's volume and range management should be key. He thinks the odds are too wide for a favorite and would only bet if the line moves to around -120.
Cody picks Ponzinibbio but is hesitant, noting both fighters are past their prime and have cardio issues at altitude. He thinks Ponzinibbio's speed and volume will outwork Salikhov, but fears Salikhov could land a big shot late. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation.
Daniel Vreeland picks Muslim Salikhov to upset Santiago Ponzinibbio. He believes Ponzinibbio has never been the same after a severe bacterial infection, losing speed and durability. He notes that both fighters are past their primes, but at the odds, he prefers the underdog Salikhov. He mentions that Ponzinibbio's recent performances have been poor, including a life-and-death fight with Miguel Baeza and knockout losses. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and goes with Salikhov.
Santiago Ponzinibbio is slightly favored. He is a bit faster and slicker with his shots. Durability is shaky on both sides, but Ponzinibbio's speed should allow him to land the first big shot and put Salikhov away. The line has dropped from -220 to -180, still a bit wide.
Paul picks Ponzinibbio but is cautious, citing Salikhov's power and cardio concerns for both. He believes Ponzinibbio's speed and volume will be key, but acknowledges the fight could end violently for either. He expects a competitive fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 1 | 66 of 197 | 33% | 67 of 198 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 44 of 104 | 42% | 44 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 29 of 70 | 41% | 29 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 13 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 23 of 78 | 29% | 24 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 15 of 43 | 34% | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Kevin Holland | 1 | 14 of 49 | 28% | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 66 of 197 | 33% | 24 of 138 | 11 of 23 | 31 of 36 | 62 of 187 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 4 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 44 of 104 | 42% | 12 of 58 | 7 of 19 | 25 of 27 | 44 of 101 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 29 of 70 | 41% | 7 of 41 | 6 of 12 | 16 of 17 | 27 of 63 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 3 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 13 of 38 | 34% | 2 of 20 | 2 of 8 | 9 of 10 | 13 of 36 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 23 of 78 | 29% | 11 of 61 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 12 | 22 of 76 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15 of 43 | 34% | 4 of 26 | 4 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kevin Holland | 14 of 49 | 28% | 6 of 36 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 13 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16 of 23 | 69% | 6 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 9 | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-245), Ponzinibbio (+205)
Round 1
Since making his promotional debut in August 2018, “Trailblazer” Holland (23-9, 1 NC; 10-6, 1 NC UFC) has competed in the Octagon a whopping 17 times to date. His 18th outing will come in a striker’s delight against Argentine slugger Ponzinibbio (29-6, 11-5 UFC), and bonus money may be up for grabs here. Referee Dan Miragliotta is charged up for this welterweight clash, and he will be watching out to make sure he does not take an errant strike. Ready to have fun, the two bump fists, and Holland backs off to find his range. Holland, with eight inches to his advantage on his hands, uses his similarly lanky legs to push off. Ponzinibbio sits down on a chopping leg kick to slow the movement of Holland down, to which Holland responds with a left hook and a jab. Ponzinibbio attacks the lead leg again, and Holland fires off a jab and a body kick. Ponzinibbio checks a kick, and he attacks the right leg a few times after Holland switches stances. Holland swats out with a left, and he counters when Ponzinibbio crashes the pocket. A Holland jab makes Ponzinibbio slip when the latter throws out a low kick, and he climbs back up without concern. Holland chops at the front leg of the Argentine fighter, and it gets checked. Holland whips a kick up high that careens off the guard, and he blocks a body kick. Holland stays active with punches and kicks, and he shoulder rolls and retreats when Ponzinibbio gives chase. They clash legs at the same time, and Holland opens up with three calf kicks. Holland springs into action with a darting jab, and changes his stances instead of following up and getting countered. Ponzinibbio winds up with a few haymaker right hands, and when he misses, Holland starts talking to him. Ponzinibbio just misses with a right hook, and Holland able to narrowly evade them and block a counter left. Four punches allow Ponzinibbio to partially get through the guard, and Holland lifts his leg up after getting kicked. Holland throws kicks from body legs, and Ponzinibbio catches it and looks to slug it out. Holland releases a backfist that knocks Ponzinibbio clean off his feet, and he drops down a few punches to a downed Ponzinibbio until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 2
The welterweight clap hands to get the second round started, and Holland leads the dance and walks into a few leg kicks. “Trailblazer” sets up his jab, using his reach to back Ponzinibbio off. Holland sneaks in a low kick and blocks a high kick, and he just misses a huge left hand. Ponzinibbio steps in with an elbow, and he escapes before a counter finds him. Holland targets the knee wit ha stomp kick, and pushes off with the ball of his foot to the chest. Ponzinibbio misses the dome by a matter of inches with a huge left hand, and Holland kicks at him from both legs. Holland dips back to fire a left hand, and Ponzinibbio chew up his foe’s leg with kicks. The Texan walks his opponent down and absorbs a big right hand and a sweeping kick, and he swats out with a few lefts. Holland grins after dodging a huge left hand, and he takes a leg kick flush. Holland gets checked when kicking the calf, and Ponzinibbio catches another kick but is not back fisted this time. Ponzinibbio strings a few punches together, only for Holland to roll with them. Holland’s jab works well, and he keeps Ponzinibbio at bay but cannot stop the calf kicks. Holland stalks his opponent down, striking with front kicks and a right hand. Holland gets Ponzinibbio’s attention with a few right hands in a series, and Ponzinibbio clinches up with him to get his bearings. Holland allows this to knee his man in the jaw, and he pushes off to gain some space. Ponzinibbio swings with all his might with three looping punches, and Holland dodges all of them. Holland meets Ponzinibbio coming in with an elbow, and he makes Ponzinibbio hit nothing but air and looks to his imaginary watch to taunt his inaccurate opponent. The round ends after this motion.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 3
Before the third round opens, Holland talks to someone outside of the cage. When it does, Holland reaches out to clap hands, and Ponzinibbio obliges him. Holland strikes first with a kick, and he chops at the lead calf and is answered with two back. “Trainblazer” flicks out a few jabs, and he blocks a winging left hook but does not defend against a brutal kick that destabilizes his balance. Holland loads up on a few right hands and kicks the thigh, and he jumps into punches while struggling to put weight on his left leg. Holland switches stances, and Ponzinibbio greets him with a high kick on that side. A kick from Holland appears to get Ponzinibbio’s attention, who slips, and Holland motions to make sure his opponent is ok. Ponzinibbio is good to go, and he winds up with a powerful kick to the calf. Holland grits it out and spins with a wheel kick, and Ponzinibbio plants his feet and throws bombs. Holland walks into a vicious kick that almost buckles his knees, and he tosses out a front kick to keep Ponzinibbio honest. “Argentina Dagger” fires a kick to the other lead leg, and he checks the ones that come back his way. Holland gets clubbed with a left, and he side kicks the body. Holland catches a low kick and rings the bell with a right hand, and Ponzinibbio hops back and is in trouble. Holland races after him, and he unloads a left hook that would knock down a heavyweight. Ponzinibbio falls down to the ground, face-first, and Holland belts him with one single follow-up blow before Miragliotta jumps in to wave off the faceplanting knockout. Knowing his work is done, Holland jumps out of the cage and rushes over to White and Trump, where he tells them that he has a broken right hand. He climbs back in the cage, and tells Ponzinibbio that kicking him hurt his own feet. In his post-fight interview, Holland says that if Jorge Masvidal does not retire after tonight, he would like to challenge for the “BMF” title.
The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Santiago Ponzinibbio R3 3:16 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland but is avoiding bets because he wants to see how Holland looks after the Wonder Boy loss. He notes that Holland is a good grappler and accurate striker, but his takedown defense is poor. He thinks Holland should win, but Ponzinibbio is a good technical striker who could make it tough.
Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by knockout, citing Holland's durability and Ponzinibbio's recent decline. He notes that Ponzinibbio was hurt multiple times by Alex Morono and knocked out by Li Jingliang. He predicts a second-round KO, but admits he doesn't fully trust Holland due to his low fight IQ.
Cody also picks Ponzinibbio but is hesitant. He notes Holland's poor decision-making and the respect books give him, making the line too high. Cody points out Ponzinibbio's durability questions and age but sees value at +200. He mentions that Ponzinibbio is fighting in his backyard in Florida and that Holland's minus 235 price is disrespectful. Cody is not sure if he'll bet it but makes the pick for the show.
Connor picks Holland because Ponzinibbio has become a slow starter who gets hurt in every fight. Holland is fast, hits hard, and is fearless, so he will likely land a big shot early. Ponzinibbio may rally later, but his early deficits are too large to overcome. Connor notes that Holland's defense has deteriorated at welterweight, but his durability and confidence make him a tough out. He also mentions that Ponzinibbio's fragility is the real concern, as he gets hurt basically every fight now.
Jacob is confident in Kevin Holland, noting that the UFC gave him a winnable fight. He points out that Holland put Wonder Boy on skates in the first round, and if he lands those shots on Ponzinibbio, he will knock him out. He believes Holland is a better, longer, and more powerful striker, and will get the job done.
Holland has speed and power but is coming off a hand injury and fighting compromised. Ponzinibbio is slower post-layoff but still has veteran savvy and power. I think Holland's speed and power advantage will find Ponzinibbio's chin, but the hand injury is a major red flag. I prefer the fight doesn't go to decision prop over betting Holland straight.
Paul takes Ponzinibbio as a plus-money underdog, though hesitantly. He notes Ponzinibbio is always competitive against top welterweights, with close split decisions against Jeff Neal and Michel Pereira. Paul criticizes Kevin Holland's poor fight IQ, referencing the Stephen Thompson fight where Holland let him up. He believes Ponzinibbio, training in Florida with the crowd behind him, has a real chance. However, he acknowledges Ponzinibbio is 36 and may have declined.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round TKO via straight right hand. He expects Ponzinibbio to have success early with leg kicks and jabs, but Holland will time a right hand as Ponzinibbio throws a kick, rocking him badly. He predicts Holland will finish with ground and pound in round two around the three-minute mark.
Zane picks Holland because Ponzinibbio starts slow and has become fragile. Holland will be aggressive and throw hammers, and Ponzinibbio won't be able to catch up early. Zane notes that Ponzinibbio can still rally and has diverse striking, but his early deficits are too much. He also mentions that Holland's gas tank and hand injury are concerns, but Ponzinibbio's inability to start fast is the deciding factor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 1 | 66 of 155 | 42% | 66 of 155 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Alex Morono | 1 | 38 of 131 | 29% | 38 of 131 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 22 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Morono | 1 | 17 of 55 | 30% | 17 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 26 of 73 | 35% | 26 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 13 of 50 | 26% | 13 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 1 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 18 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 66 of 155 | 42% | 31 of 99 | 26 of 47 | 9 of 9 | 65 of 153 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Alex Morono | 38 of 131 | 29% | 34 of 120 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 124 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 22 of 42 | 52% | 6 of 19 | 11 of 18 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 17 of 55 | 30% | 14 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 26 of 73 | 35% | 12 of 48 | 12 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 13 of 50 | 26% | 12 of 45 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 18 of 40 | 45% | 13 of 32 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Alex Morono | 8 of 26 | 30% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ponzinibbio, noting his clean striking, range control, and volume. He warns that Ponzinibbio must avoid Lawler's power and treat him with respect. He believes Ponzinibbio can get a finish if he maintains a high pace like Barbarena did. He acknowledges Lawler is dangerous even at 40 but thinks Ponzinibbio's technical approach will win.
Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, but is not confident in the price. He notes Ponzinibbio has lost a step but still competes at a high level, while Morono is a short-notice replacement. He expects a close fight that goes to decision, with Ponzinibbio outpointing Morono.
Cody picks Ponzinibbio, citing his volume striking, footwork, and ability to absorb damage. He notes Ponzinibbio has been competitive against high-level guys despite recent split decision losses. He thinks Morono is a 50/50 fighter who fights to his opponent's level and is taking the fight on short notice. He expects Ponzinibbio to win by decision.
Connor picks Ponzinibbio, citing his full camp, powerful straight punches, and low kicks. He notes Morono is a short-notice replacement and lacks the athleticism to handle Ponzinibbio's sustained offense. Connor believes Ponzinibbio's persistence and power will overwhelm Morono, who tends to put himself in danger.
Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio but with low confidence due to Ponzinibbio's diminished form after a health scare. He praises Ponzinibbio's prime style: stalking footwork, calf kicks, and a beautiful straight right. However, he notes Ponzinibbio is a step slower now and has gone 1-3 in his last four. Levi acknowledges Morono's toughness and awkward brawling style, but believes Ponzinibbio's cleaner striking and experience should carry him. He warns not to be surprised if Morono wins.
Lock likes Ponzinibbio to win, believing he will torch Morono from the jump and eventually knock him out. He sees Morono as a plodding forward fighter whose durability holds up some nights but not against Ponzinibbio's striking. From a long-term perspective, he thinks Ponzinibbio will get a decent bump but will lose against higher-level competition. He recommends a pump and dump on Ponzinibbio this weekend.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Ponzinibbio. He notes that Ponzinibbio has been preparing for this fight for a long time while Morono is on short notice. He thinks the minus 180 line is fair and is surprised it's not higher given the circumstances. He sees Ponzinibbio's experience and preparation as key factors.
The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio over Robbie Lawler (note: transcript says Lawler but fight is Ponzinibbio vs Morono; likely error). He believes Ponzinibbio will jab Lawler's face off and win by TKO in round two or three. He criticizes Lawler's age and recent performances, and thinks Ponzinibbio's range striking will be too much.
Zane picks Ponzinibbio, emphasizing his ability to rally back in fights and his power. He notes Morono's grit but says Ponzinibbio's sustained offense and punching power are a level above Morono's recent opponents. Zane is concerned about Morono's short notice but trusts Ponzinibbio's experience.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Pereira | 0 | 105 of 220 | 47% | 106 of 221 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 110 of 216 | 50% | 110 of 216 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michel Pereira | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Michel Pereira | 0 | 34 of 66 | 51% | 35 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 35 of 70 | 50% | 35 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Michel Pereira | 0 | 55 of 115 | 47% | 55 of 115 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 51 of 101 | 50% | 51 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Pereira | 105 of 220 | 47% | 78 of 185 | 13 of 18 | 14 of 17 | 103 of 217 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 110 of 216 | 50% | 52 of 143 | 42 of 56 | 16 of 17 | 108 of 214 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michel Pereira | 16 of 39 | 41% | 8 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 24 of 45 | 53% | 9 of 27 | 12 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michel Pereira | 34 of 66 | 51% | 26 of 56 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 33 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 35 of 70 | 50% | 14 of 44 | 17 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 34 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michel Pereira | 55 of 115 | 47% | 44 of 100 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 54 of 114 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 51 of 101 | 50% | 29 of 72 | 13 of 20 | 9 of 9 | 50 of 100 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-120), Ponzinibbio (+100)
Round 1
Herb Dean gets the assignment for the co-main event of the evening. Pereira moves laterally on the outside and fires off a front kick. A right hand from Pereira has Ponzinibbio backing up, but his fingers are extended and he pokes his opponent in the eye. Ponzinibbio gets a hard warning from Dean. Another front kick from Pereira, and Ponzinibbio answers with a leg kick. A right hand over the top lands clean for Pereira. Pereira misses the mark on a right but follows up with a leg kick. Pereira briefly secures a rear waistlock but elects to separate. Ponzinibbio steps in with a leg kick. Pereira with a couple front kicks to the midsection. Ponzinibbio is walking his foe down, looking for openings. But it’s Pereira who lands a combination. Ponzinibbio loads up on some power punches but Pereira eludes the offering. Ponzinibbio has a head kick blocked.
A right hand lands behind the ear of Ponzinibbio and appears to stun him momentarily
. Another front kick to the gut for Pereira. An inside leg kick lands for Ponzinibbio. Ponzinibbio presses the action but Pereira defends well and counters. Ponzinibbio comes up short on a right just as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Pereira
Round 2
Pereira steps in and lands a 1-2 at the outset. Ponzinibbio with an outside leg kick. Pereira moves forward and rips a hard kick to the body. Pereira misses a massive overhand right, but he steps in a connects with a glancing knee. A left hook catches Ponzinibbio coming in. Ponzinibbio is still struggling to find the range on his strikes, as he is confounded by Pereira’s movement.
The action picks up as both men trade willingly. Ponzinibbio tags Pereira with a big left hand near the fence. Another heavy left finds the mark for the Argentina native. A left hook lands for Pereira. Ponzinibbio lands a combination followed by a leg kick. Another exchnage and both men are bleeding
. Ponzinibbio lands a couple jabs and then succeeds on a double leg takedown late in the round. Pereira stands but Ponzinibbio stays attached with a waist lock as the period ends.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Ponzinibbio
Round 3
The combatants touch gloves at the start of the final frame. Pereira with a jab to the body and a leg kick. Pereira follows a right hand with a knee to the body. A jab catches Ponzinibbio moving forward. Another right hand makes Ponzinibbio briefly stagger back. Pereira eludes a left and kicks the body. Ponzinibbio with a crisp straight left. Pereira blocks a head kick from Ponzinibbio. Ponzinibbio jabs and Pereira answers with an uppercut. Ponzinibbio with an outside leg kick. Pereira misses a heavy right hand. Ponzinibbio with another thudding leg kick. Ponzinibbio lands a right but Pereira backs him up with a combination of his own. Another nice jab for Ponzinibbio lands. A right from Ponzinibbio briefly jars Pereira’s mouthguard loose. Pereira lands a body kick. Ponzinibbio works behind his jab, and Pereira shucks off a takedown try.
Both men are trading liberally in the final minute. A left hook and a right hand land for Ponzinibbio, two of the better strikes in spirited brawl
. Pereira stuffs a takedown. The welterweights continue to battle as time ticks down. Ponzinibbio seems to be landing the cleaner shots, while Pereira is a little bit wild with his strikes. A very close, entertaining round.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio (29-28 Ponzinibbio)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio (29-28 Ponzinibbio)
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)
The Official Result
Michel Pereira def. Santiago Ponzinibbio via Split Decision (28-29, 30-27, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Michel Pereira because he believes Pereira is better everywhere: more power, versatility, 100% takedown defense, and improved cardio. He notes that Ponzinibbio has good range control but Pereira's power and technique will overcome that. He expects Pereira to win a decision, his fourth in five fights.
Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, favoring his pressure style and superior cardio. He notes Ponzinibbio throws combinations and leg kicks, while Pereira prefers to stick on the outside and may struggle with pressure. He expects Ponzinibbio to break Pereira as the fight goes on and win a close decision.
Cody leans Pereira because he believes Ponzinibbio hasn't looked the same since his eye injury, citing close fights with Miguel Baeza and Geoff Neal where he was outlanded in significant strikes. He notes Pereira has improved his cardio and fight IQ, mixing in takedowns and pacing himself. He thinks Pereira's chin is better and that he can land a big shot or wrestle, making him the fresher fighter.
The host discusses the fight but does not make a clear pick. He notes that Pereira is a bigger welterweight and that Ponzinibbio is a legitimate 170-pounder. He questions whether Pereira's size will be a factor and mentions that Ponzinibbio's takedown defense should be good enough. He does not express a preference for either fighter.
Paul does not give a clear pick for this fight. He says the line is perfectly accurate and both guys can win. He mentions Ponzinibbio's volume and pressure but notes he hasn't looked the same since his injury. He does not express a preference.
The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, believing he has the cardio and durability to outlast Michel Pereira. He thinks Pereira's KO power is not enough to finish Ponzinibbio and that Pereira will fade in the later rounds. He predicts a third-round TKO for Ponzinibbio.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 85 of 161 | 52% | 86 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 91 of 229 | 39% | 91 of 229 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 26 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 19 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 26 of 73 | 35% | 26 of 73 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 46 of 73 | 63% | 46 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 39 of 93 | 41% | 39 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 85 of 161 | 52% | 73 of 145 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 85 of 161 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 91 of 229 | 39% | 62 of 195 | 12 of 17 | 17 of 17 | 90 of 228 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 20 of 41 | 48% | 13 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 26 of 63 | 41% | 17 of 54 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Geoff Neal | 19 of 47 | 40% | 16 of 41 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 26 of 73 | 35% | 15 of 61 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Geoff Neal | 46 of 73 | 63% | 44 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 46 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 39 of 93 | 41% | 30 of 80 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 39 of 93 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Geoff Neal to win by knockout, but with low confidence due to Neal's recent DUI and gun possession arrest. He notes that Neal has a power advantage and reach advantage over Ponzinibbio, who is 35 and coming off a layoff and a knockout loss. However, Neal's preparation is a major concern. Brady says if Neal shows up focused, he has a good chance, but he is not sure the fight will even happen.
Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win a war of attrition. He notes that both fighters nearly died from medical issues, but Ponzinibbio looked better in his last fight against Miguel Baeza, shaking off rust. Levi questions whether Geoff Neal has recovered from his sepsis and heart failure, citing poor performances against Wonderboy and Neil Magny. He believes Ponzinibbio's jab, straight right, calf kicks, and takedown defense will be too much. Levi expects Ponzinibbio to be more aggressive and meaner.
Neal is the more technical striker and will counter Ponzinibbio's aggressive pressure effectively. Ponzinibbio has defensive flaws and is hittable, especially against a counter-striker. Neal's straight right and speed should find the mark, and a knockout is possible. The underdog odds provide value.
The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, citing his experience, technical striking, and ability to pressure. He notes that Geoff Neal had a troubled training camp (jail time) and has shown vulnerability against pressure fighters. He predicts Ponzinibbio will win 30-27.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 121 of 270 | 44% | 122 of 271 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 104 of 249 | 41% | 104 of 249 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 15 of 52 | 28% | 15 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 39 of 73 | 53% | 39 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 47 of 107 | 43% | 47 of 107 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 27 of 66 | 40% | 27 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 59 of 111 | 53% | 60 of 112 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 38 of 110 | 34% | 38 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 121 of 270 | 44% | 98 of 245 | 12 of 13 | 11 of 12 | 121 of 270 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 104 of 249 | 41% | 36 of 166 | 24 of 34 | 44 of 49 | 104 of 249 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15 of 52 | 28% | 12 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 39 of 73 | 53% | 11 of 43 | 8 of 10 | 20 of 20 | 39 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 47 of 107 | 43% | 38 of 98 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 47 of 107 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 27 of 66 | 40% | 7 of 37 | 7 of 12 | 13 of 17 | 27 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 59 of 111 | 53% | 48 of 100 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 59 of 111 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 38 of 110 | 34% | 18 of 86 | 9 of 12 | 11 of 12 | 38 of 110 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady questions whether Ponzinibbio is the same fighter after a long layoff and poor performance against Li Jingliang, where he looked hesitant and was outlanded. He notes Baeza is on the rise, improving each fight, though his competition has been weak. He believes Baeza hits hard and can knock out Ponzinibbio, who has been knocked out twice before. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Baeza by KO.
Cody picks Ponzinibbio as a dog, citing his experience and higher level of competition. He notes Baeza's striking is one-at-a-time and he hasn't faced anyone like Ponzinibbio. Cody is hesitant because Ponzinibbio looked bad against Li and has injury history, but he gives him one more chance. He thinks Ponzinibbio's physical strength and experience will be enough.
Daniel picks Baeza because he believes Ponzinibbio may never be the same after his health issues and three-year layoff. He notes that Baeza is a special prospect with big power, good left hook, calf kicks, and a black belt in jiu-jitsu, training with Colby Covington. Daniel points out that Ponzinibbio looked slow and hesitant in his last fight against Li Jingliang, and his defensive flaws are now more exposed. He acknowledges that Ponzinibbio could look better with the ring rust gone, but the uncertainty leads him to favor Baeza, predicting a knockout.
Paul leans toward Baeza, citing Ponzinibbio's long layoff and poor performance against Jingliang Li. He notes Ponzinibbio's suspect chin and low hands. Paul thinks Baeza's youth and power could be key, but acknowledges Ponzinibbio's experience. He is not confident and calls it a lean.
The Guru picks Miguel Baeza, citing Ponzinibbio's long layoff due to injuries and his recent KO loss to Li Jingliang. He thinks Baeza has improved greatly, with good grappling, submissions, and striking IQ. He predicts Baeza will rock Ponzinibbio and finish by TKO in the first round, noting Ponzinibbio made technical mistakes against Li.
Carlston Harris - Fight History
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mattthews (-325); Harris (+250)
Round 1
Thankfully no human ejecta had to be mopped off the mat before welterweights Matthews (22-8; 15-8 UFC) and Harris (19-7; 4-3 UFC) go to work under the watchful eye of referee Jason Herzog. Harris is here on three weeks' notice in place of Muslim Salkihov, who withdrew due to injury. Both gentlemen are in orthodox stance, and the contrast in stances and styles is fascinating: Matthews compact, with a high guard, the lanky “Mocambique” with a wider, looser kickboxer’s stance. Through the first minute there is little action; both fighters throw, but the cleanest contacts are a pair of inadvertent head clashes in the pocket. Hopefully that does not portend another weird finish here. Matthews starts to land more cleanly, tagging Harris with a pair of one-twos, and the Guyana native goes staggering backward. Matthews pursues, a bit too aggressively, as Harris meets him with a pair of wild haymakers that glance but still have a visible effect. “The Celtic Kid” shakes it off, composes himself and goes back to work with his clean, basic boxing combinations, and more of what he throws is landing solidly. Under 90 seconds to go and Harris appears to be largely recovered, but Matthews is continuing to catch him cleanly with two- and three-piece combos. He slips a big punch from Harris and clips him with a counter left hook. Matthews nais Harris with a right uppercut-left hook combo at the 10-second clapper that has him staggering at the horn.
10-9 Matthews.
Round 2
Harris shoots for a takedown instantly, switching to a guard pull when Matthews sprawls. Matthews transitions straight into a mounted triangle choke, but can’t quite secure it. He lets it go but ends up in Harris’ half guard. Harris sits up into octopus guard, trying to sweep or at least get his head out of the way, but Matthews is all over it, and flattens Harris onto his back. Matthews is still in half guard, possibly framing up a topside choke. Harris grabs a guillotine, but it’s on the opposite side and will only get him into trouble. He lets it go, but has nearly succeeded in getting full guard. Then, in a flash, Matthews cuts through Harris’s guard and slides to mount. With a minute to go, Matthews is dropping short elbows. Harris gets back half guard, but Matthews attacks the far arm with a kimura. Harris rolls through to top position, but Matthews keeps the arm and is still working on it at the horn.
10-9 Matthews.
Round 3
“The Celtic Kid” has put in 10 minutes of largely dominant work thus far, but his corner yells at him to get the finish, and he comes out aggressively. However, it’s Harris who lands first, with a pair of grazing shots. Matthews comes back with a right hand that blasts Harris so hard that he goes down headfirst, his forehead clattering off the Octagon floor. The second impact might actually have woken Harris up, but he is clearly still dazed as Matthews follows him to the canvas and takes his back instantly. Matthews with a body triangle and four full minutes to work, and he looks for a rear-naked choke. He can’t get it, and doesn’t like something about the position, so he moves to top position and sets up in his opponent’s half guard. The midpoint of the round passes and Harris appears to be recovered, but he’s in a huge hole here. Matthews is still in half guard, but riding fairly high and clearly looking to pass to mount as he drops elbows and short punches at the base of the cage. Matthews applies heavy pressure, then moves to mount, looking for a shoulder choke. It looks as if he might get it, but after a few moments, he gives up on it and starts dropping punches. The 10-second clapper sounds, and Harris will hear the final horn.
10-8 Matthews (30-26 Matthews).
The Official Result
Jake Matthews def. Carlston Harris via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-27, 30-27)
AJ picks Jake Matthews confidently, calling Carlston Harris washed and past his prime at 38. He notes Harris's slow, herky-jerky striking and recent losses, while Matthews is a fluid kickboxer with high-level grappling. AJ predicts a Matthews finish, possibly by knockout or submission, given Matthews's recent form and Harris's vulnerabilities.
AJ is confident Matthews will dominate, calling Harris washed and noting his poor recent performances. He highlights Matthews' fast hands and good combos, while Harris is slow and sloppy. AJ predicts a knockout, possibly in the first or second round, and thinks Matthews will show out. He also notes the travel advantage for Matthews (Australia) vs Harris (Brazil).
AJ calls Matthews an 'absolute lock,' believing Harris is washed and old. He notes Matthews is in his prime with clean kickboxing and strong wrestling, while Harris has looked slow and sloppy recently. AJ predicts a finish, possibly by KO or submission, given Harris's decline and short notice.
Angelo is very confident that Jake Matthews will win, citing his power, experience, and the fact that Carlston Harris is coming off a brutal knockout loss. He believes Matthews is the better overall fighter and expects the line to move heavily in Matthews' favor. He advises betting on Matthews now before the odds shorten.
Angelo picks Jake Matthews to win and finish, noting that Harris is past his prime, less durable, and stepping up on short notice. He believes Matthews is well-rounded and should find a finish.
Angelo picks Jake Matthews because he is the better overall fighter, younger, and has more energy. He notes that Matthews is the better wrestler and striker, and that Carlston Harris is past his prime. He is confident and expects bets on Matthews.
Big Brady picks Jake Matthews but is hesitant, calling him the biggest ball dropper and inconsistent. He notes Harris is a front choke merchant and Matthews was just front choked by Neil Magny. He believes Matthews should win but warns he might find a way to lose. He predicts a decision win, saying Matthews should finish but probably won't.
Cody picks Harris as a live underdog, citing Matthews' history of getting submitted in the third round when tired. He notes Harris' submission skills (anaconda choke) and that Matthews has been submitted four times in the UFC. Cody believes Harris can catch Matthews late if he survives the early rounds. He also mentions that Matthews' wins are over low-level competition.
Connor also picks Matthews, agreeing that he is the better fighter technically. He notes that Harris is a clinger who relies on overwhelming opponents with power, but Matthews can handle that pace and has better defense. Connor points out that Harris's win over Ponzinibbio came because Ponzinibbio is now vulnerable, and Matthews is more durable and composed. He acknowledges the vibe risk but thinks Matthews should win.
Levi picks Matthews but with low confidence, noting his history of choking in big spots. He acknowledges Harris's front choke threat and Matthews's recent submission loss. However, he believes Harris's bad chin and age give Matthews a good chance to knock him out.
Jacob picks Jake Matthews but is hesitant because he feels this fight could be a trap. He notes that Carlston Harris is unorthodox and has power, and Matthews has been submitted before. He warns that Matthews might not use his wrestling and could get caught.
Lucrative James picks Jake Matthews, citing his youth (31 vs 38), better boxing, head movement, and overall skill set compared to Carlston Harris. He notes Matthews' unfortunate last loss due to a referee error but believes he is the better fighter everywhere. He highlights Harris's poor durability, cardio, and recent knockout losses, and expects Matthews to land clean shots and get a knockout. He also mentions Matthews' improved chin and comfort in the UFC.
The host picks Jake Matthews over short-notice replacement Carlston Harris, noting Matthews' sharper striking and Harris' over-aggressiveness. He expects Matthews to counter with big shots and eventually find a knockout.
The host picks Matthews to win inside the distance, believing his well-rounded game and experience will overcome Harris's reckless striking. He notes Harris is old, hasn't fought in over a year, and is on a two-fight losing streak by knockout. He expects Matthews to counter and outgrapple Harris, leading to a knockout.
Paul also leans Harris, noting that Matthews is overpriced at -350 and has a history of late-round submissions. He mentions Harris' striking is decent and he has a knack for submissions. Paul is not confident enough to bet pre-flop but sees live betting value. He also notes that Matthews' wins are against low-level opponents.
The Guru picks Matthews to win more often than not. He notes Matthews is a solid boxer with good movement and accuracy, plus decent grappling and ground and pound. Harris has power and an anaconda choke threat but has been less active lately. He thinks if Harris wins, it's via anaconda choke.
The Guru picks Jake Matthews over Carlston Harris, citing Matthews' youth, athleticism, and technical striking. He believes Matthews' footwork and accuracy will pick apart Harris, who is hittable and fading. He notes Harris' back-to-back KO losses and Matthews' bounce-back potential.
Zane picks Matthews, stating that technically Matthews is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes that Harris is a 'suffocating clinger' without good wrestling or striking defense, and that Matthews has improved his pressure boxing. However, Zane warns that Matthews' vibes can be off, as seen in the Neil Magny fight where he crumbled after a bad break. Still, he believes Matthews should win if he doesn't get in his own head.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 1 | 76 of 175 | 43% | 76 of 175 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Carlston Harris | 1 | 73 of 196 | 37% | 78 of 211 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlston Harris | 1 | 37 of 79 | 46% | 37 of 79 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 27 of 70 | 38% | 27 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlston Harris | 0 | 28 of 86 | 32% | 28 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 1 | 27 of 57 | 47% | 27 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Carlston Harris | 0 | 8 of 31 | 25% | 13 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 76 of 175 | 43% | 57 of 151 | 8 of 11 | 11 of 13 | 72 of 165 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 |
| Carlston Harris | 73 of 196 | 37% | 40 of 142 | 19 of 39 | 14 of 15 | 73 of 195 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 22 of 48 | 45% | 13 of 39 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlston Harris | 37 of 79 | 46% | 20 of 51 | 8 of 18 | 9 of 10 | 37 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 27 of 70 | 38% | 21 of 62 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlston Harris | 28 of 86 | 32% | 15 of 66 | 8 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 28 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 27 of 57 | 47% | 23 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 23 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 |
| Carlston Harris | 8 of 31 | 25% | 5 of 25 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In the co-headlining spot, two action welterweights throw down with aspirations of making one last run in a division unkind to the elderly. At the age of 38, Ponzinibbio (29-8, 11-7 UFC) knows his back is against the wall, and four losses in his last five fights do not help his case. Harris (19-6, 4-2 UFC), at 37, is not in as dire of a roster situation, but his chin was checked by Kalinn Williams last year in a gnarly way. The exciting combatants will collide as referee Kerry Hatley watches on, aware that this one could end with one concussive blow. There is a glove touch first, and Ponzinibbio stalks down the taller man early on. Harris tries to use his range to jab out and keep Ponzinibbio away, and he kicks at the front leg as well. Ponzinibbio jabs him back, brushing past a left hook to rifle off a one-two on the chin. Ponzinibbio goes to the body with another one-two, and Harris hops back and forth while kicking the plant leg again. Ponzinibbio connects at the end of a right hand, and Harris counters well enough to make Ponzinibbio reset. Harris jabs to the head and midsection, and his right hook brushes the waist. When Ponzinibbio sells out for a hook, Harris shoots even lower for a takedown, but the effort is for naught as he is completely shut down. Ponzinibbio further backs him away with a one-two and a low kick, and he blocks the head kick that zips at his melon. Harris gets off a short left hook to the ribs, and he aims another to the same spot. Ponzinibbio sways and moves, evading the worst of the strikes and lobbing big right hands back at the lankier man. They clash legs together when kicking, and Ponzinibbio scores and takes fire as they trade leather. A one-two from Ponzinibbio leads to a takedown effort from “Mocambique,” but Harris still cannot get him down. Instead, it is the power left from Harris that gets Ponzinibbio’s attention, staggering the fighter from Argentina after a blitz. Harris lobs a big right hand that puts Ponzinibbio to the ground, and he somehow opens a cut on the back of Ponzinibbio’s head wrapping the strike around him. Harris drills Ponzinibbio with a one-two that sets him down, and Ponzinibbio scrambles and gets to his feet. A kick from Harris nearly puts Ponzinibbio down again, and he gets up and clutches the back of his head as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Harris
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Harris
Round 2
The welterweights touch ‘em up, with Ponzinibbio appearing to have his feet beneath him again. Harris does not blitz him, instead jabbing to the body and measuring with his clubbing left hook head of winding it up. Ponzinibbio works the front leg twice to turn Harris about, and he sways away from a hook aimed his direction. Ponzinibbio walks through a low kick to put two punches on Harris’ chin, and Harris tanks them and responds in kind. Ponzinibbio blazes out with a one-two, and the right side of Harris’ face is bloodied up and swelling from absorbing strikes. Harris ducks a big left hand, and a jab draws blood from his mouth. The Argentinian doubles up on a jab and follows with a right that gets Harris’ attention, and Harris shoots for a takedown that is stopped in its tracks. Harris digs an uppercut to the body when Ponzinibbio bends over, and Ponzinibbio clubs him back with an overhand right. Splitting the guard with a right hand, Ponzinibbio gets through, but Harris knocks him back and then drops him with a jab. Ponzinibbio bounces up to his feet as if he had springs in his shorts, and he gets right in Harris’ face to keep throwing hands. Harris uses his longer range to chew up Ponzinibbio from his own preferred distance, and a leg kick from Harris disrupts Ponzinibbio’s movement briefly. Because of this, Ponzinibbio winds up and misses with a right hand, and he is in the wrong spot when Harris catches him with a right hook over the top. Harris digs to lefts to the liver to follow, and Ponzinibbio goes to the sternum with a left hand. They trade hooks at the same time, and their chins hold up even though they are taking massive damage at this point. Harris kicks, his foot is caught, and he still loops a left hand at his man. Ponzinibbio swings back with a vengeance, and Harris’ jab keeps him honest. Ponzinibbio comes up short with a one-two, and the horn sounds at matching lands.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Round 3
To the surprise of some, the fighters have reached the third round, and they high-five to celebrate their handiwork. Harris commences the round with a tackling takedown effort, and Ponzinibbio pitches him out of the way like a farmer tossing sacks of grain around. Harris rolls to his back and welcomes Ponzinibbio into the guard, and he forces a scramble that allows him to fight to his feet. They resets in kickboxing range, with Ponzinibbio loading up on right hands as he chases after Harris. Harris lets loose with a right hand that buzzes past his target, and both men land cleanly with power. Harris jabs the body and absorbs a one-two to the chest, and he slips when advancing but does not lose his footing. Harris doubles up on body shots with his left hook, and he kicks the same spot. Ponzinibbio scores with a big left and a heavy right, rocking Harris badly. Harris wobbles back, absorbing another fierce right hand on the jaw, and he is somehow on his feet despite getting blasted. Ponzinibbio unloads everything he has, setting Harris down, and Harris tries to engage his grappling as a safety valve. Ponzinibbio wants nothing to do with it and backs off to let Harris up, and he connects with looping lethal strikes. Harris gets rocked from one side of the cage to the other, but he is still in the fight and swings back with reckless abandon.
Ponzinibbio sets him down to a knee with a clubbing power shot, and Hatley rushes forward but pulls back before stopping the fight. Harris stands back up and lets his hands go, and during an exchange, Hatley inexplicably gets between them to stop the fight and save Harris from further punishment.
Harris is understandably upset because even though he took massive damage and was on baby deer legs, he was engaging and striking his opponent. Like the odd stoppage in the Curtis fight, the protests from the losing fighter fall on deaf ears. Ponzinibbio leaps out of the cage to high-five the commentary booth, and Harris quickly regains his cool and is all smiles after an uproarious battle.
The Official Result
Santiago Ponzinibbio def. Carlston Harris R3 3:13 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, citing his speed, cleaner striking, and better cardio. He notes that Carlston Harris has more power and aggressive grappling, but believes Ponzinibbio's volume and pressure will win. He expresses concern about Ponzinibbio's commentating job potentially distracting him, but still picks him. He mentions Ponzinibbio was an underdog but may flip to favorite.
Big Brady likes Harris's grappling advantage, noting his elite submission game and front chokes. He thinks Ponzinibbio's chin is declining, having been knocked out by the Leech and Kevin Holland. He believes Harris has more ways to win, either by submission or a club-and-sub. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop, as both guys have poor durability and can finish each other.
Cody picks Ponzinibbio despite his recent 2-5 record, arguing that Harris is also flawed with poor takedown accuracy and stiff striking. He believes Ponzinibbio's veteran savvy, range, and power will allow him to land first. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a knockout.
Connor picks Ponzinibbio because Harris is fundamentally bad at MMA, relying on wild aggression and grappling without structure. Ponzinibbio is a good defensive wrestler and strong in the clinch, and his straight punches and footwork make him difficult to clinch against. While Ponzinibbio is older and slower, he still has a process and toughness, and his losses have come against sharp strikers, not wild punchers like Harris. Connor notes that if Ponzinibbio loses, it would be his worst loss since 2011.
Daniel notes both fighters are washed up and chinny, but historically Ponzinibbio was one fight away from a title shot and has better credentials. He thinks Ponzinibbio's experience and jab/straight right will be enough, though he's not confident. He mentions Harris has dangerous front chokes but Ponzinibbio rarely shoots. He picks Ponzinibbio to win and retire.
Lucrative James gives a lean toward Santiago Ponzinibbio, but admits he hasn't done extensive research. He believes Ponzinibbio is the better striker and can defend takedowns, while Harris's best chance is an early knockout. He predicts a decision win for Ponzinibbio in a lackluster fight. He cautions that this is an early read and he may not bet it.
Ponzinibbio's technical striking should allow him to pick apart Harris and eventually find a knockout, but he must be wary of Harris's big power and reckless swinging. As long as Ponzinibbio's speed hasn't diminished, he should find openings to put Harris away.
Paul leans toward Harris as a slight plus-money underdog, citing Ponzinibbio's age and damage absorbed. He notes Harris's crafty submission game and power, but admits both are flawed. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds as a bet rather than the moneyline.
The Guru picks Ponzinibbio despite questioning why this is a co-main event. He notes Ponzinibbio's split decision loss to Muslim Salikhov and leg kicks against Holland, and his win over Alex Morono. He contrasts Harris's inactivity, age (37), and KO loss to Chaos Williams. He acknowledges Ponzinibbio's recent chinny reputation but thinks he's good enough to beat Harris.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Ponzinibbio has not lost his innate understanding of how to fight and is still tough. He points out that Ponzinibbio's recent losses are to elite fighters, and he has competed well against fringe contenders. Harris, despite being a natural athlete, has poor technique and has never been that good. Zane also mentions that Ponzinibbio's pattern of slow starts and strong finishes could be a factor, but Harris is unlikely to capitalize early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khaos Williams | 1 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Carlston Harris | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khaos Williams | 1 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Carlston Harris | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khaos Williams | 12 of 20 | 60% | 5 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Carlston Harris | 14 of 30 | 46% | 10 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khaos Williams | 12 of 20 | 60% | 5 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Carlston Harris | 14 of 30 | 46% | 10 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Williams (-130), Harris (+110)
Round 1
Coming into the co-main event, two welterweights with the ability to procure especially violent and fascinating finishes will clash. Williams (14-3, 5-2 UFC) prefers to smash people in the face, while Harris (19-5, 4-1 UFC) can hit hard and is not afraid to go for a neck. Referee Dan Miragliotta may be needed when it’s all said and done. The two men tap their gloves together before the melee ensues, and Williams moves right to the center of the cage. Harris slaps out a low kick, and he leans to the side to evade a front kick aimed at his face. They both jab at one another, with Williams going to the body. Williams aims a body shot and follows with a right hand over the top. Harris stays on the outside with rangy punches to the head and midsection. They trade low kicks, and Harris prods out with a jab. Harris comes up short with a pair of overhand rights, and a third partially lands.
Williams absorbs a clubbing right hand behind the ear when jabbing to the body, and he ducks down and unleashes a devastating right that completely demolishes “Mocambique.” Harris hits the ground on his side in a heap, totally wrecked, and Williams leaps down to finish the job with one unnecessary diving right hand.
When Miragliotta gets between them, he walks off pounding his chest to celebrate a crushing knockout, having flattened a dangerous adversary in about 90 seconds.
The Official Result
Kalinn Williams def. Carlston Harris R1 1:30 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Khaos Williams due to his power, durability, and takedown defense, but he is not fully confident because Williams looked flat in his last fight with no head movement. Carlston Harris is well-rounded with slick grappling and power. Angelo trusts Williams' takedown defense over Harris's 29% takedown accuracy, but hopes Williams shows improvement.
Cody believes Williams has evolved from a pure power puncher to a more well-rounded fighter who uses inside kicks to set up his right hand. He notes Williams has 80% takedown defense and hasn't been taken down since Michel Pereira. Cody argues Harris's striking is limited and his cardio is suspect; if Harris doesn't get a quick submission, Williams will outwork him on the feet. He also highlights Williams's training camp at Michigan with top welterweights.
Williams has improved his takedown defense and gas tank, and is a crisper striker. Harris relies on clinching and BJJ but will struggle to get the fight to the ground against Williams' physicality. Expects Williams to land the more effective damage and win a decision.
Paul leans on Harris's grappling advantage, noting that if Harris can get the fight to the mat, he should have a significant edge. He questions whether Khaos Williams has been tested against someone with Harris's jiu-jitsu pedigree. Paul expects a striker vs. grappler dynamic and favors the grappler.
The MMA Guru picks Carlston Harris to win by submission (rear-naked choke) in rounds one or two over Khaos Williams. He believes Harris will grapple heavily and that Williams' takedown defense is not bad but Harris is more likely to shoot offensively. He notes Williams' inactivity and real estate business as potential distractions, and trusts Harris' grappling pedigree.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlston Harris | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 41 of 78 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 | 0 | 9:26 |
| Jeremiah Wells | 0 | 5 of 19 | 26% | 19 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlston Harris | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 10 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:24 |
| Jeremiah Wells | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlston Harris | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 29 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:34 |
| Jeremiah Wells | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carlston Harris | 0 | 2 of 18 | 11% | 2 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Jeremiah Wells | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlston Harris | 18 of 48 | 37% | 16 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 20 |
| Jeremiah Wells | 5 of 19 | 26% | 1 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlston Harris | 3 of 8 | 37% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
| Jeremiah Wells | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlston Harris | 13 of 22 | 59% | 12 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 15 |
| Jeremiah Wells | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlston Harris | 2 of 18 | 11% | 2 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jeremiah Wells | 4 of 15 | 26% | 1 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Wells (-130), Harris (+110)
Round 1
Jason Herzog gets his first assignment of the night for this welterweight bout. Wells moves in with a standing side kick that sends Harris into the cage. Wells explodes into punching range then assumes top position after a failed Harris takedown. Wells is working from half guard, covering Harris’ mouth with his glove. Wells stays heavy on top, grinding his forearm into his foe’s face. As Harris attempts to stand, Wells secures a brabo choke. They roll over into the center of the cage, with Harris on his back now. The choke is not properly applied, but Wells continues to drive his shoulder. Wells adjusts the position, and now he has a ninja choke. Wells has a tight squeeze, but Harris defends with his back to the mat. Harris scrambles to his feet and Wells drives him into the fence. Wells drops for a single leg, adjusts and connects his hands before pulling Harris off the cage and planting him on the canvas. Wells has Harris mounted near the fence, controlling the wrist of his opponent. Wells goes back to half guard and tees off with left hands. He ends the round with more left hands on his grounded foe.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Round 2
Wells steps in with an uppercut-left hand combination. A spinning attack from Wells misses the mark, but he shoves Harris to the mat and takes top position. He lands some solid shots and then puts Harris back on the mat. Harris scoots to a seated position with his back to the fence, but Wells is still heavy on top. Wells passes to mount, then returns to half guard. Harris is being overpowered here. Every time he posts, Wells lifts the legs and adjusts his position. Wells is back in half guard, landing the occasional right hand. Wells continues to grind away, but Harris can do no better than a seated position. Wells puts him on his back and drops some heavy elbows. Wells’ offense has been more forceful from inside Harris’ full guard, as he ends the round with more solid elbows.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Round 3
Wells comes out winging heavy leather, but Harris is avoiding the majority of it. Wells uses his punches to shoot for a takedown. Harris defends with a choke and they separate. Harris lands a nice punch to the body, but Wells shoots a powerful takedown. Harris defends well and goes to the mat,
locking in an anaconda choke in the process. For a moment it doesn’t seem like Wells is in danger, but Harris flips him to his back and lifts his foe’s head. Harris maintains the grip and Herzog steps in to take a look. Wells is unconscious
and this one, along with his four-bout UFC winning streak, is over. A nice comeback victory for Harris.
The Official Result
Carlston Harris def. Jeremiah Wells via Submission (Anaconda Choke) R3 1:50
Angelo picks Jeremiah Wells but is hesitant, noting the fight is very close. He gives Wells a slight edge in wrestling and notes his toughness after being dropped twice in his last fight. He acknowledges Carlston Harris has a better chin and is dangerous on the ground. Angelo does not place a bet because Harris is dangerous, but thinks Wells will get it done.
Big Brady thinks this is a very close fight and expects a first-round knockout. He notes both fighters have power and are hittable. He picks Harris slightly because he thinks Harris can land a big shot and Wells won't be able to grapple his way out like he did against Semelsberger. He predicts Harris by first-round KO.
Cody is confident in Harris as an underdog, citing his unorthodox striking, reach (77 inches), power, and BJJ black belt. He notes Wells' struggles against grapplers and his tendency to get rocked. He believes Harris can chop Wells up on the feet and has a good chance of finishing inside the distance.
Daniel Levi leans toward Carlston Harris, citing his length, jab, and volume striking. He worries about Wells' wrestling success but thinks Harris can defend takedowns and pick him apart at range. Levi notes both fighters have questionable chins, but believes Harris' activity and process give him an edge. He sees this as a dog-or-pass situation and prefers Harris at plus money.
James disagrees with the line moving toward Harris. He acknowledges Harris's front choke series is dangerous, especially if Wells shoots. However, he thinks Wells has insane punching power and good takedown top upside. He believes Wells is the deserved favorite but says it's not a hill he wants to die on.
Both fighters are reckless strikers looking for knockouts, but Wells is shorter and stockier while Harris is long and lanky. Wells has a slight edge in Jiu-Jitsu, but Harris has a better gas tank. I think Wells gets an early knockout under 2.5 rounds, likely in the first, but I don't have any real interest in betting this matchup.
Paul agrees with Harris, noting that the market has moved and Harris is now the rightful favorite. He cites Wells' poor performance against Samuelsberger and his vulnerability early. He plans to take a small bet on Harris and considers a live bet after the first round.
The host picks Jeremiah Wells, calling him an 'absolute dog' with power and grit. He believes Wells has the power advantage and can get inside, while Harris is lengthy but not on the same level. He notes Wells is a BJJ black belt and can handle grappling exchanges. He likes Wells at -163 or lower, and sees value on Harris as a dog if the line moves.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlston Harris | 0 | 63 of 110 | 57% | 140 of 194 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 9:38 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 51 of 84 | 60% | 93 of 126 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlston Harris | 0 | 43 of 84 | 51% | 44 of 85 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 44 of 71 | 61% | 53 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Carlston Harris | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 47 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:44 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 28 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carlston Harris | 0 | 13 of 16 | 81% | 49 of 55 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:41 |
| Jared Gooden | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlston Harris | 63 of 110 | 57% | 52 of 99 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 35 of 74 | 11 of 15 | 17 of 21 |
| Jared Gooden | 51 of 84 | 60% | 22 of 49 | 21 of 27 | 8 of 8 | 41 of 74 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlston Harris | 43 of 84 | 51% | 34 of 75 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 70 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Gooden | 44 of 71 | 61% | 20 of 42 | 17 of 22 | 7 of 7 | 39 of 66 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlston Harris | 7 of 10 | 70% | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 9 |
| Jared Gooden | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlston Harris | 13 of 16 | 81% | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 12 |
| Jared Gooden | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Harris (-300), Gooden (+250)
Round 1
The UFC is holed up in Las Vegas this weekend for another Fight Night card, but not where you’d expect. Instead of the Apex or the T-Mobile Arena, the promotion will make its debut inside of the Theater at Virgin Hotels, which seats over 4,000 – some may remember it as called “The Joint” in years past. Fans will be cheering throughout this 13-fight event, and it begins with an unplanned catchweight contest now set at 177 pounds. Harris (17-5, 2-1 UFC) expected to face a member of the Nurmagomedov clan, but on short notice, he now welcomes Gooden (22-8, 1-3 UFC) back to the promotion. The latter was unable to make the 171-pound limit, and even though he checked in a whopping six pounds heavy, the fight is still on. Referee Keith Peterson will boot out nonsense from this new venue in the first fight of the night, and there is no touch of gloves to get things started from the fighters. The two test one another’s range early with long, lunging single strikes. Gooden sits down on a hard leg kick, and Harris catches his foe with his hands low with a two-hook combo. Harris swings so hard he almost hits the deck, and Gooden does not take advantage of this and lets him clinch up instead. They separate, and Harris lets fly a head kick that careens off the shoulder. “Mocambique” dings his opponent with a few sharp strikes, as Gooden’s hands are by his waist, but Gooden seems no worse for wear and steps in with a left hand. Harris pushes out a jab and a follow-up leg kick, and Gooden replies with a heavier low kick. They jab at the same time, and Harris follows one with a left hand that backs Gooden off. Harris wings a right hand that cracks “Nite Train” behind the ear, and Gooden wobbles but does not pick his guard up. Harris’ right hook collides with a few more oddly arcing overhand rights, and Gooden walks through them and tries to counter with a huge left hook. Harris nails Gooden with a few punches, and Gooden takes them on the chin and side of the dome without budging. Harris shoots in for a takedown in the center of the cage, and when that is stuffed, he blasts Gooden in the nose with a knee. Harris stands in the pocket and unloads with a haymaker of a right, and Gooden blinks it out but does not seem overly concerned. Harris swings for the bleachers with most of his blows, and they are already beginning to slow with a minute remaining in the opening frame. Harris sticks a jab, and Gooden answers him with two back. Gooden comes over the top with a right, and it has a near tomahawk motion than a typical right hook angle. Harris nails Gooden with a standing elbow, and he unloads with a combination of heavy blows to the head that rock Gooden and drive him back to the wall. The horn sounds as the two are clinched.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Round 2
The second round opens up with a low kick from Gooden, and Harris shoots in for a double-leg takedown. “Nite Train” stands him up although he gets pushed back to the wall, and Harris tries for trips on the inside as Gooden talks to him. Harris redoubles his effort, and he manages to scoop Gooden’s legs out and dump him on the mat. Harris moves to half guard as soon as he hits the ground, and he actively works with ground-and-pound from on top. The punches and elbows are not individually damaging, but they stay busy and stave off the watchful Peterson from a possible standup. Harris lays down flat on top of his man, and he softens up the ribs with a series of unanswered, thudding right hands. Gooden prevents any guard passing even when absorbing elbows on the face, and he start throwing punches off his back. Gooden sits up, and Harris welcomes this and snatches up a guillotine choke in a hurry. Gooden moves to his knees while in submission danger, doing enough to fight the hands and preventing the choke from cinching up. As Harris holds on, he pushes Gooden down to his back again, and he squeezes his forearm on the throat and elbows Gooden until the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Round 3
The final round kicks off with an aggressive Gooden, who marches out of his corner and swings heavily. Harris takes a few punches before jumping on a leaning Gooden to push him down to the ground on his face. Gooden looks to defend himself from a potential choke setup, but in the process, Harris circles around to take his back and drag him to the canvas. Harris jumps over to the mount position in pursuit of an arm-triangle choke, only for a Gooden buck to break up the choke. Harris postures up while still mounting his man, and he rains down punches and elbows that bounce Gooden’s head off the mat. Gooden scoots his way to the wall, and Harris lets him off the hook and tries to take his back on the way up. Gooden shucks him off, but Harris turns around to drop down for a single-leg takedown. Gooden stands him up and knees him in the upper chest, and Harris powerfully replies by wrenching Gooden’s feet off the floor and chucking him to the mat. Gooden lands on his backside with a disappointed look on his face, but he still powers his way back up to his feet before Harris can drill him with any strikes. Gooden breaks free from a tie-up, and he throws hands recklessly in hopes of catching Harris on the way in. Harris rings his bell with a fierce jab and shoots for a double, and he succeeds in grounding “Nite Train.” Gooden looks to keep his back against the cage to possibly wall-walk, and Harris slides around the side and back to try to take it. Gooden explodes out of the inopportune position, and Harris doggedly pursues doubles or any kind of takedown he can find. On his second try, while Gooden is halfway to escaping, Harris trips his legs up and throws him to the canvas. Harris climbs into half guard and lets loose with a stream of elbows, and he lumps Gooden’s head up with strikes right to the final horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harris (30-27 Harris)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Harris (30-27 Harris)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harris (30-27 Harris)
The Official Result
Carlston Harris def. Jared Gooden via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov (Jared Gooden) as the aggressive wrestler who will lay on top of the older, slower Carlston Harris. He expects a boring but effective performance, with Nurmagomedov controlling the fight with takedowns and top pressure. He is surprised Nurmagomedov is the underdog and considers a moneyline bet at plus money.
Big Brady picks Ricardo Ramos (note: transcript says Ramos vs Lingo, but fight_id 1327 is Harris vs Gooden; however the transcript discusses Ramos vs Lingo, which is not on the card. This appears to be a mismatch. Based on the transcript, the fight discussed is Ramos vs Lingo, but that fight is not in the fight list. I will skip this as it doesn't match any fight_id. Actually, the transcript mentions 'Ricardo Ramos going against Austin lingo' but that fight is not in the provided card. So I will not include it.)
Connor picks Harris confidently, noting that Gooden is a stiff, upright striker who gets hurt early in fights and has poor head movement. Harris is a powerful, dynamic wrestler-striker who will pressure Gooden and take him down. He expects Harris to overwhelm Gooden with pace and power, likely leading to a finish.
I think Gooden's discipline and jab from distance, combined with timely takedowns, will allow him to grind out a decision. Harris is dangerous early with submissions and power, but if Gooden can survive the initial onslaught and avoid the front choke, he should take over. Gooden's performance against Harris showed he can implement a smart game plan. I expect a decision win for Gooden.
The MMA Guru picks Carlston Harris, citing his finishing ability as a key advantage. He notes that Harris has a massive finishing edge over Abubakar Nurmagomedov, who tends to win by decision. Harris has shown KO and submission finishes, while Nurmagomedov lacks finishing ability and has been submitted before. The Guru trusts Harris to get the job done, likely by finish.
Zane picks Harris, agreeing that Gooden's stiff striking and tendency to get hit will be exploited by Harris's power and wrestling. He notes that Harris is an awkward but powerful fighter who can maintain a high pace, and Gooden has historically struggled against aggressive opponents. He expects Harris to win by decision or late TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 1 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 16 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Carlston Harris | 0 | 10 of 27 | 37% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 1 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 16 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Carlston Harris | 0 | 10 of 27 | 37% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 13 of 28 | 46% | 10 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 |
| Carlston Harris | 10 of 27 | 37% | 3 of 13 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shavkat Rakhmonov | 13 of 28 | 46% | 10 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 |
| Carlston Harris | 10 of 27 | 37% | 3 of 13 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
It’s a welterweight rumble on the docket now between two surging prospects each looking for their third win in as many tries when Rakhmonov (14-0, 2-0 UFC) takes on Harris (17-4, 2-0 UFC). This classic battle of Kazakhstan vs. Guyana will draw the attention of referee Mike Beltran, although the tensions are not high as they show respect with a touch of gloves. The center of the cage immediately belongs to Rakhmonov, who swats away a punch to the body as he slowly advances. Harris kicks the body and swipes out with a left as Rakhmonov comes towards him, and Harris whiffs on a big right hand as well. Harris has a left hand bounce off the cheek, only to walk into a one-two that makes him bend over. Harris fires back with a strike to the body, as he lunges in with a few right hands to the torso. Rakhmonov’s volume is low, as the Kazakh picks his shots from range. Rakhmonov catches a swinging Harris with a right hand, and Harris recklessly attacks and gets kicked hard to the body with a spinning kick. Rakhmonov races ahead, sensing he might have hurt “Mocambique,” and he lands a body shot before Harris grabs hold of him. They dance back and forth in pursuit of takedowns from each man, and Rakhmonov pushes him hard against the fence before lifting Harris in the air. Harris manages to keep his balance as Rakhmonov lifts him up, sets him down and picks him up again to elevate and drop. The Guyana native turns Rakhmonov to the fence, and he starts stomping on toes in an old-school manner. While Harris thwarts one trip attempt, the second succeeds, and Rakhmonov drops his foe right on his head. Harris keeps moving, scrambling well enough to get back to his feet without issue.
In the blink of an eye, Rakhmonov spins with a hook kick to the head, and the heel smashes into the side of Harris’ dome. Harris topples to the mat, and Rakhmonov leaps down to hunt for a finish. Harris throws his legs up to try to keep Rakhmonov off of him, but Rakhmonov tosses them aside and drops down hammers in the form of punches. “Nomad” blasts Harris a couple times with long standing-to-ground punches until Harris’ consciousness is stripped away, and Beltran is quick to notice this and halt the fight.
That’s 15 wins in 15 tries for Rakhmonov, with all 15 ending inside the distance. As he makes the sign to the crowd for dollar bills, he also signals to the UFC that he is a serious contender on the rise at 170 pounds.
The Official Result
Shavkat Rakhmonov def. Carlston Harris R1 4:10 via KO (Spinning Hook Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov but warns the odds are too wide. He notes Rakhmonov is a special prospect with finishes everywhere, but Harris is a gamer with solid grappling and opportunistic submissions. Angelo gives the edge to Rakhmonov for his power and wrestling, but expects a tough fight. He suggests buying a round on the judges' scorecards.
Cody is torn but leans Rakhmonov. He loves Rakhmonov's skills and thinks he is a future star. He notes that Harris is a savvy veteran with good grappling and power, and that Rakhmonov had some clinch struggles against Cowboy Oliveira. However, he thinks Rakhmonov's overall game is superior and that he will get the job done.
Daniel Levi picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, praising his well-rounded game, durability, and finishing ability. He notes Rakhmonov has beaten solid competition and has a 77-inch reach. Levi believes Carlston Harris may gas in later rounds due to his bouncing movement, while Rakhmonov's cardio and pressure will take over. He respects Harris's awkward power and experience but sees Rakhmonov as a buzzsaw who will outwork him down the stretch.
Lock of the Night favors Rakhmonov, citing his cleaner striking and better gas tank. He notes that Rakhmonov gives up double underhooks easily, which is Harris's strength, but believes Rakhmonov's jiu-jitsu and cardio will allow him to take over later. He expects Rakhmonov to clip Harris and finish via ground and pound or submission. He likes the over 1.5 rounds and Rakhmonov inside the distance.
Paul is high on Rakhmonov, calling him a future title challenger. He notes Rakhmonov's smooth striking, good wrestling, and physical strength. He acknowledges that Harris is a live underdog with good grappling and power, but he thinks Rakhmonov's skills are special. He is backing Rakhmonov but admits he has been burned by having too much faith in prospects.
The MMA Guru picks Carlston Harris as an upset, calling it an 'evens matchup' despite wide odds. He notes Harris has beaten a Dagestani phenom before (Sajid Izakanev) and is more explosive. He predicts a second-round TKO, with Harris cracking Rakhmonov on the chin and finishing with ground strikes. He criticizes Rakhmonov's previous competition as weak.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlston Harris | 0 | 6 of 21 | 28% | 6 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Impa Kasanganay | 1 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 24 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlston Harris | 0 | 6 of 21 | 28% | 6 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Impa Kasanganay | 1 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 24 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlston Harris | 6 of 21 | 28% | 5 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Impa Kasanganay | 24 of 46 | 52% | 16 of 37 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlston Harris | 6 of 21 | 28% | 5 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Impa Kasanganay | 24 of 46 | 52% | 16 of 37 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 11 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Drifting up to the welterweight division, two men with impressive submission victories in their last outings come to blows when Kasanganay (9-1, 2-1 UFC) meets Harris (16-4, 1-0 UFC). Neither man has ever been tapped out before, so will tonight be the first? Like referee Mark Smith, we will find out soon. The gloves are not touched, as both men instead take a stride on the edge of the cage. Harris is the first to engage, waltzing forward to lob a wide right hand. Kasanganay dodges and moves away, but Harris is intent on closing the distance with it as he punches his way into a clinch. When Kasanganay is able to escape, Harris just misses with a right hand on the break. “Mocambique” slaps away a punch to score a heavier one of his own, and he fires off a head kick. They both exchange with huge punches, and Harris appears stunned but keeps a stiff upper lip to not let his opponent know he may be hurt. They bite down on their mouthpieces and throw for the fences, with little interest in defense as they both go for a home run shot. Harris backs off with a leg kick, and he blocks a punch with an elbow so that he can swing a left hand. Harris swats at his man with a right hand over the top, and he digs his shin into Kasanganay’s liver. Both men blast the other with massive punches, and it is Harris that gets the better of the exchange as Kasanganay staggers back.
Harris follows him and smashes him in the face with a left hand that sends Kasanganay careening to the ground. Kasanganay rolls over and gets to his knees, but Harris is on him in a hurry as he tries to finish the job. As the Guyanan pounds on his foe with strike after unanswered strike, one or two may land to the back of the head, but enough mount until Smith steps in to call a halt to the fight.
Kasanganay stands back up and protests the stoppage, but there is nothing more he can do as the fight is over.
The Official Result
Carlston Harris def. Impa Kasanganay R1 2:38 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Carlston Harris despite Impa's superior striking because Harris is relentless with takedowns. He notes that Impa has good takedown defense but lacks knockout power to keep Harris off him. He worries that Impa's hesitation and Harris's non-stop wrestling will lead to Harris grinding out a win. He briefly considers switching to Impa but sticks with Harris.
Big Brady picks underdog Carlston Harris, impressed by his relentless wrestling and cardio. He notes Harris attempted over 20 takedowns in a 25-minute fight and has a good fight IQ. He believes Harris will pressure Kasanganay for 15 minutes, and predicts a submission win as Kasanganay is green on the mat. He is surprised Harris is the underdog.
Cody leans toward Harris as a slight underdog, citing his experience, submission game, and clear identity as a grappler. He notes that Kasanganay is still figuring out his game after being knocked out by Buckley. Cody believes Harris' pressure and grappling will be key.
Daniel Levi leans with Impa Kasanganay over Carlston Harris. He has scouted Impa for a long time, saw him fight in Atlanta, and praises his mental fortitude and physicality. He notes Harris has a nasty d'arce/anaconda choke but thinks Impa's mindset and athleticism give him the edge in a close fight. He calls it a coin flip but edges Impa.
Preet picks Impa Kasanganay because he believes Impa is the more technically sound striker with better range understanding and serviceable grappling to avoid trouble. He notes that Harris has power and a good top game but questions his takedown entries and thinks Impa's defensive grappling is improving. He expects Impa to win by decision and likes the decision prop at +175.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Harris' experience and that Kasanganay turned into a grappler in his last fight. He thinks Harris' submission threat is real and that the plus money is attractive.
The MMA Guru picks Impa Kasanganay over Carlston Harris, praising Kasanganay's technical soundness and composure. He believes Kasanganay won't be outgrappled and notes his youth and better gym. He predicts a close 29-28 unanimous decision, with Kasanganay winning the later rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlston Harris | 0 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Christian Aguilera | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlston Harris | 0 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Christian Aguilera | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:52 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlston Harris | 1 of 10 | 10% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Aguilera | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlston Harris | 1 of 10 | 10% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Aguilera | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
This ESPN fight card that took hit after hit proceeds with 9 fights tonight, and we start things off in the welterweight division. “The Beast” Aguilera (14-7, 1-1 UFC) will try to make Guyanese newcomer Harris (15-4, 0-0 UFC) feel unwelcome in the Octagon – win or lose, Harris will become the first fighter from Guyana to set foot in the UFC cage. Referee Marc Goddard will be in charge of this card opener, and there is no glove touch to commence the violence for the evening. Instead, Aguilera hops forward with odd angles, but rushes right into a takedown attempt from the debutant. Harris grabs hold of a body lock, spins him around, and cannot get Aguilera down. Harris does manage to get Aguilera’s back for a moment, but the American powers his way to spin out of the precarious position to press “Mocambique” into the cage wall. Aguilera pushes him away, and he narrowly avoids a front kick. Aguilera reaches out with a few jabs and bumped back with a kick, and he stings Harris with a quick uppercut. “The Beast” throws so hard after this strike that he falls over, but Harris is still recovering so he does not take advantage of it. The two clinch up, giving Harris a moment to clear out the cobwebs. When Harris gets free, he rocks Aguilera with a right hand, and he fires off another big looping shot that makes Aguilera shoot in for a desperation takedown. “The Beast” falls neck-first into an anaconda choke while on his knees, as Harris snatches up the grip and cinches it around Aguilera’s neck in an instant.
The choke is immediately tight, and Aguilera is doomed. A few seconds elapse as Aguilera tries to break the grip or wriggle himself free, but there is nothing for him to do but surrender. The American does not decide to tap, and Harris’ vice-like squeeze sends Aguilera off to dreamland.
Goddard recognizes that Aguilera is sleeping with his eyes open, and he halts the fight to award the win to the UFC neophyte. That is a great way to start the night, with a slick technical submission in the first round.
The Official Result
Carlston Lindsay Harris def. Christian Aguilera R1 2:52 via Technical Submission (Anaconda Choke)
Big Brady likes Harris's wrestling and top control, believing he will take Aguilera down and grind out a decision. He notes Aguilera is dangerous on the feet early but has a suspect chin and has been dropped multiple times. Brady expects Harris to survive the first round and then take over with his grappling, winning a clear decision. He mentions Harris's gas tank is on point and his striking is not bad, but there are question marks due to lack of recent tape.
Daniel Levi picks Carlston Harris, citing his wrestling-heavy game plan and ability to implement his style. He notes Harris' wins over good regional competition and expects him to take Aguilera down and control the fight. He acknowledges Aguilera's power but thinks Harris' wrestling will be too much. He predicts a decision win for Harris.
The host believes Carlston Harris is the real deal, with good striking defense, cardio, and the ability to get the fight to the ground. He expects Harris to grind out a win, possibly by decision, but also likes the over 1.5 rounds and Harris by decision prop. He is slightly cautious due to being burned by Anthony Ivy's debut but overall confident in Harris.
The MMA Guru picks Carlston Harris over Christian Aguilera, citing Harris's recent evolution as a fighter. He notes Harris used to brawl but now uses takedowns and control, as seen in his win over a 17-1 Dagestani opponent. He predicts a second-round submission, specifically a rear-naked choke, as Harris will take Aguilera down and neutralize his power.
Expert Picks (10)
Angelo picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, citing his speed, cleaner striking, and better cardio. He notes that Carlston Harris has more power and aggressive grappling, but believes Ponzinibbio's volume and pressure will win. He expresses concern about Ponzinibbio's commentating job potentially distracting him, but still picks him. He mentions Ponzinibbio was an underdog but may flip to favorite.
Big Brady likes Harris's grappling advantage, noting his elite submission game and front chokes. He thinks Ponzinibbio's chin is declining, having been knocked out by the Leech and Kevin Holland. He believes Harris has more ways to win, either by submission or a club-and-sub. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop, as both guys have poor durability and can finish each other.
Cody picks Ponzinibbio despite his recent 2-5 record, arguing that Harris is also flawed with poor takedown accuracy and stiff striking. He believes Ponzinibbio's veteran savvy, range, and power will allow him to land first. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a knockout.
Connor picks Ponzinibbio because Harris is fundamentally bad at MMA, relying on wild aggression and grappling without structure. Ponzinibbio is a good defensive wrestler and strong in the clinch, and his straight punches and footwork make him difficult to clinch against. While Ponzinibbio is older and slower, he still has a process and toughness, and his losses have come against sharp strikers, not wild punchers like Harris. Connor notes that if Ponzinibbio loses, it would be his worst loss since 2011.
Daniel notes both fighters are washed up and chinny, but historically Ponzinibbio was one fight away from a title shot and has better credentials. He thinks Ponzinibbio's experience and jab/straight right will be enough, though he's not confident. He mentions Harris has dangerous front chokes but Ponzinibbio rarely shoots. He picks Ponzinibbio to win and retire.
Lucrative James gives a lean toward Santiago Ponzinibbio, but admits he hasn't done extensive research. He believes Ponzinibbio is the better striker and can defend takedowns, while Harris's best chance is an early knockout. He predicts a decision win for Ponzinibbio in a lackluster fight. He cautions that this is an early read and he may not bet it.
Ponzinibbio's technical striking should allow him to pick apart Harris and eventually find a knockout, but he must be wary of Harris's big power and reckless swinging. As long as Ponzinibbio's speed hasn't diminished, he should find openings to put Harris away.
Paul leans toward Harris as a slight plus-money underdog, citing Ponzinibbio's age and damage absorbed. He notes Harris's crafty submission game and power, but admits both are flawed. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds as a bet rather than the moneyline.
The Guru picks Ponzinibbio despite questioning why this is a co-main event. He notes Ponzinibbio's split decision loss to Muslim Salikhov and leg kicks against Holland, and his win over Alex Morono. He contrasts Harris's inactivity, age (37), and KO loss to Chaos Williams. He acknowledges Ponzinibbio's recent chinny reputation but thinks he's good enough to beat Harris.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Ponzinibbio has not lost his innate understanding of how to fight and is still tough. He points out that Ponzinibbio's recent losses are to elite fighters, and he has competed well against fringe contenders. Harris, despite being a natural athlete, has poor technique and has never been that good. Zane also mentions that Ponzinibbio's pattern of slow starts and strong finishes could be a factor, but Harris is unlikely to capitalize early.
Pondy all the way baby