vs
-145 +140
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 Next Fight
Age 31
Height 5' 9"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Thiago Moises
2.48 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
4.08 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
1.31 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
52.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Trey Ogden
3.2 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
3.49 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
1.89 TD Avg
32.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Thiago Moises
Moneyline
Caesars -145
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1050
Submission
FanDuel +550
Decision
FanDuel +135
Trey Ogden
Moneyline
FanDuel +140
KO/TKO
BetWay +1200
Submission
BetWay +1100
Decision
BetWay +250
Thiago Moises - Fight History
LOSS vs Gauge Young
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · Apr 18, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Thiago Moises 0 45 of 101 44% 46 of 103 2 of 15 13% 0 0 2:33
Gauge Young 1 122 of 226 53% 131 of 237 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Thiago Moises 0 8 of 13 61% 9 of 15 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:22
Gauge Young 0 9 of 23 39% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:17
2 Thiago Moises 0 14 of 38 36% 14 of 38 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:11
Gauge Young 0 44 of 88 50% 44 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Thiago Moises 0 23 of 50 46% 23 of 50 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Gauge Young 1 69 of 115 60% 74 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Thiago Moises 45 of 101 44% 34 of 81 1 of 3 10 of 17 42 of 97 2 of 3 1 of 1
Gauge Young 122 of 226 53% 62 of 157 27 of 34 33 of 35 114 of 211 2 of 2 6 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Thiago Moises 8 of 13 61% 4 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 3 6 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1
Gauge Young 9 of 23 39% 2 of 16 0 of 0 7 of 7 9 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Thiago Moises 14 of 38 36% 9 of 27 0 of 1 5 of 10 14 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Gauge Young 44 of 88 50% 19 of 60 12 of 14 13 of 14 43 of 87 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Thiago Moises 23 of 50 46% 21 of 45 0 of 1 2 of 4 22 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gauge Young 69 of 115 60% 41 of 81 15 of 20 13 of 14 62 of 101 1 of 1 6 of 13
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Young (-130); Moises (+110)

Round 1
Once a hot commodity off of the sole Brazilian season of Dana White’s Contender Series, Moises (19-9, 8-7 UFC) has regressed to the mean and is one defeat away from falling to .500 in the promotion. Young (10-3, 1-1 UFC) has gone one up and one down thus far, so he is looking to break out of that pattern and into greater heights. They will battle it out under the auspices of referee Jason Herzog, who will be keeping tabs on the 155ers for as long as they keep fighting.
There is no touch of gloves. Moises pressure immediately forward, backing Young to the fence and shooting in on his hips within 10 seconds. Young places his back against the wall to keep himself afloat, and as Moises keeps clinging to his man, the crowd grows quite restless. Moises ignores the boos and irritation from the audience and keeps tight to him. Young flips Moises over him, and Moises recovers quickly enough so both men stand up. Young tosses out a high kick to keep Moises honest, and he ducks a looping punch but cannot evade a front kick aimed at his jaw. Young probes with a jab and low kick, and Moises catches him in transition with a left hook. They jab at the same time, and Young just misses a looping punch as Moises kicks the lead calf. Young stays behind his jab.
Moises loads up on power, and Young sees it coming and also knows a takedown is soon to test him. Young stops the first effort, but the Brazilian redoubles his attempt and succeeds in putting Young down. Young wall-walks to stand up, and he gives his back up in the process. Moises hops onto his back and wraps his legs around the waist while flirting with a choke attempt. Moises wraps his forearm across the face and tries to squeeze it, but the American is able to fight it off and kick off the fencing to drop to his knees. Moises welcomes this as he is leaned against the cage, and he smacks Young in the face with an undercut sneakily beneath Young’s armpit. Young sells out all the way to turn about, and Moises does not entirely give up the position and has Young trapped in an awkward side-turned position that contorts his spine but is not about to force him to tap. Young breaks out and finds himself in armbar danger, and he stacks the Brazilian up and lands a few punches to conclude the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises

Round 2
There is a slight fist bump to kick off the round, and Young is quick to follow that bump with kicks from both limbs. Moises jabs to the body to open up a right hand, and Young does not fall for the latter. Young jabs the body with his heel, and he reaches out with a right hook. Moises chops at the front leg, and Young stumbles forward but is still more than willing to trade. The American digs a shot to the body and goes after an uppercut, and Moises is just out of range with the latter. Moises wraps a right hand around the ear and shoots for a single, with Young defending it and pushing off. Moises shoulder-rolls a heavy right hand but the jabs are continuing to score. Young jabs Moises up with a kick to the stomach and follows with a punch before he has to sprawl the incoming takedown. Moises bullies Young to the wire for a few seconds, and Young knows he cannot get ground out again and breaks out soon.
He proceeds to jab and cross Moises with short combinations, and he just misses with a step-in knee. Moises wants another takedown, but Young is not having it and shucks him away easily. Both men look to double up their jab and come over the top with a right hand, but neither is able to do so as the big rights are telegraphed. They pick at one another with low kicks and stay busy from up close, not overswinging anything and just selecting their places carefully. It is one after the other, Moises lands, Young fires back, Moises keeps on throwing and Young is ready for more. Moises shoots low for a takedown, and he gets pushed away and nearly booted in the face when standing up. The Brazilian manages to tackle Young over, and he comes up short with a hefty knee. Young puts his fists on Moises up high and to the chest, rolling with a right hand to press ever forward until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Young
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Young
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Young

Round 3
Young offers a high-five, and Moises accepts it before the final frame ensues. Young gets back right where he left off, slowly pressing the action and outboxing the slugging Moises. Moises is loading up on sheer power, while Young is content to touch and move. Young pitches Moises to the side when Moises changes levels, and he delivers a stern uppercut to the jaw and staggers the Brazilian with a follow-up right. He also marks Moises’ face up on multiple places, including both cheeks and the bridge of the nose. Young steps in with a sharp elbow, and he tosses Moises to the side as Moises predictably shoots in on his hips. Young kicks Moises’ lead leg out from him as Moises is shooting for a takedown, and Moises flops to his back while Young raises in arms in the air. Moises stands up thanks to Herzog, and he steps in with a thudding elbow on the nose. Moises failed takedown is an even worse look when he falls to his back again when he does not get it. Young forces him to stand.
Moises tries to brawl, but he is far too slow while Young picks him apart with fast combinations. Young clips Moises behind the ear, sending the Brazilian collapsing to the mat, and he follows him down to bash him with punches and hammerfists. When there is no finish in sight, Young dances around to showboat and gets Herzog to bring him back upright. Young beats Moises with a left hand and points at it, and he is feeling himself and motioning in a Diaz-like manner any thing he lands flush. Moises stands firm and drills him with a right hand, and Young shakes it out to re-engage. Moises meets him with sheer power, hurling his right hand like he wants to knock the head of “Gee Money” into the third row. Young tanks the ones that connect and backs Moises to the wall, stinging him with an elbow but getting caught flush with a power right hand. Moises is swinging with hammers, and Young picks him apart and has his hands up to defend from the most dangerous of attacks. Moises punctuates the brawl with two punches and a head kick, and the lightweights hug it out after a hard-fought contest.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Young (29-28 Young)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Young (29-28 Young)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Young (29-28 Young)

The Official Result
Gauge Young def. Thiago Moises via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gauge Young

Angelo picks Gauge Young despite acknowledging Thiago Moises is good everywhere. He likes Gauge's aggression, scrambling, and forward pressure, believing he will do more and impress judges. He worries about Gauge cutting easily and bleeding, which could affect judging.

"But I'm still going to pick Gaej here. Because I love the aggression."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Big Brady picks Thiago Moises as an underdog, citing his elite jiu-jitsu and wrestling. He notes Moises' inconsistency but believes he wins step-down fights. Brady points out Grant Dawson's vulnerability to takedowns and submissions, and predicts Moises will win by decision.

decision
"Give me Thiago Moises to win. I'll take him to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gauge Young

Cody picks Gauge Young, citing his youth, volume, and recent improvements. He notes that Thiago Moises is inconsistent and has taken a lot of damage. He also mentions that Moises' chin is a question mark after the Jared Gordon loss.

"I'm going I'm going with youth here. And I will say Moises, although we said that he's, you know, only 31, it's just like let's face it, man. the amount of wars, damage, everything, wear and tear."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Gauge Young

Daniel believes Moises is on a decline and has looked poor recently, while Young is improving and can push a pace that Moises struggles with. He thinks Young's hands and pressure will overwhelm Moises. He picks Young to get the biggest win of his career.

"I'm gonna pick Gage Young to come out here and get the biggest win of his career."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2026 (fight day)
Gauge Young

Young is a high-pressure striker with excellent cardio, while Moises has poor cardio and relies on grappling. Moises is passive on the feet and only shoots a few takedowns per fight. Young's takedown defense is good enough to scramble back up, and he will out-strike Moises significantly. This is a classic striker vs grappler where Young has a huge edge.

"Gage Young is my most confident bet on this card."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gauge Young

James picks Gauge Young to win, citing his durability, cardio, and pressure. He thinks Moises is on a downtrend and will struggle with Young's pace. Despite Moises being more skilled, James favors Young's will to win and stylistic advantages.

"I'm actually going to pick Gage Young here to get the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

The host is hesitant but picks Moises by submission, thinking he will eventually find a position to put Young away. He notes that Moises is being overlooked due to his knockout loss to Jared Gordon, and that his BJJ and striking can be competitive. However, he needs a good number on the Moises submission prop to pull the trigger.

Moises by submission
"I'm going to go Moises here. I'm going to go Moises by submission. I think he finally finds that position to put Young away."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gauge Young

Paul also picks Gauge Young, agreeing with Cody. He highlights Young's volume and Moises' inconsistency. He mentions that Moises' durability is a concern and that Young is the fresher fighter.

"Yeah, I think Gage Young just on the money line is how I'm going to approach this fight."
LOSS vs Jared Gordon
KO R1 3:37 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Gordon 1 7 of 13 53% 21 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:36
Thiago Moises 0 5 of 9 55% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Gordon 1 7 of 13 53% 21 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:36
Thiago Moises 0 5 of 9 55% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Gordon 7 of 13 53% 5 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2
Thiago Moises 5 of 9 55% 3 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Gordon 7 of 13 53% 5 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2
Thiago Moises 5 of 9 55% 3 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-110), Moises (-110)

Round 1
Lightweight veterans with technically equal records in the UFC—although one has a no contest—come to blows, with plans of remaining highly regarded in the talent-rich division. Gordon (20-7, 1 NC; 8-6, 1 NC UFC) is the one who also has the grey mark on his pace thanks to a clash of heads with Bobby Green, and has otherwise alternated wins and losses for a few years. The same can be said for Brazil’s Moises (19-8, 8-6 UFC), who is ready to continue the rivalry of his team of American Top Team against regional adversarial team Kill Cliff FC and its rep of Gordon. Referee Kerry Hatley will keep things on the up-and-up, but they are fine with one another and clap hands. The first strike thrown is a Moises body kick, which Gordon uses to easily sling his opponent to his back. Gordon practically walks into top control, and Moises wraps up his arms in an unorthodox armlock attack. Moises lets go of the lockup and lashes out with a short elbow off his back that opens a tiny cut on the top of Gordon’s forehead. Gordon responds with ample ground-and-pound of his own, smearing his blood all over the Brazilian’s head and chest. Moises works his way back up to his feet, ignoring the strikes lobbed at him so he can fight his way back up and away. They proceed to smack one another with low kicks, and Gordon darts in with a pair of punches that bounce off the guard. Leg kicks continue to fly, and they tag one another with single strikes. When Gordon ducks in to throw, Moises counters with a clean right hand over the top. “Flash” does not bat an eye, and instead lets Moises pitch a left hand at him.
This is exactly what he wants, as Gordon times a picture-perfect right hand that smashes into the American Top Team fighter’s chin and puts him down for the count. Moises’ head clatters off the mat when he collapses to the ground like a bird that’s had its wings clipped, and Gordon hammers the nail with a leaping right hand that gives commentator Michael Bisping flashbacks of when he took on Dan Henderson, cleanly separating Moises from his consciousness.
Before Hatley can get to them, Gordon gets one or two off that wake Moises back up, but they are merely academic as Gordon has dropped the hammer. Blood streaming down his face, Gordon stands up and shrugs, as if he knew he was going to do this all along. When Moises comes to, the two hug it out, but it is unclear if Moises knows the license plate number of the bus that just ran him over.

The Official Result
Jared Gordon def. Thiago Moises R1 3:37 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Angelo picks Thiago Moises after going back and forth. He acknowledges that Jared Gordon has been screwed on scorecards and could be on a win streak, but trusts Moises's training and activity. He notes that Moises is a slick grappler with technical striking and that Gordon is inactive and not on as good a team. Angelo says likely no bets for this fight.

Likely no bets for this fight.
"I'm going to stick with Thiago Moises. I trust the training. I trust the activity."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon, citing his volume and cardio. He notes Gordon's losses are to tough competition in close decisions, and he thinks Gordon's takedown defense and chin hold up. He expects a close competitive decision win for Gordon.

Gordon by decision
"I like Gordon here. ... I think he wins this fight and wins it by a pretty pretty close competitive decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

The host finds this a tough puzzle but leans with Gordon's pace and pressure. He notes Moises has looked good against certain opponents but doesn't do well against guys who set the pace, and Gordon is exactly that. He expects Gordon to grind out a high pace, possibly get a late finish, but mostly win on the scorecards, provided his durability holds up.

Gordon by decision (possible late finish)
"I have to lean with Gordon's pace and pressure. Moises has looked very good against certain opponents, but he doesn't do well against guys that can set the pace."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

The Guru picks Jared Gordon, citing a rule of thumb that beating Thiago Moises means you're good. He thinks Gordon has been robbed in recent decisions (Bobby Green, Nazareno Malegarie) and is better than his record. He acknowledges grappling concerns from the Grant Dawson loss but believes Gordon's fundamental grappling defense is strong. He predicts Gordon wins by decision.

"I'm going to go with Jared Gordon over Thiago Moises."
WIN vs Trey Ogden
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
LOSS vs Ľudovít Klein
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
WIN vs Mitch Ramirez
KO R3 0:15 · UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Mar 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Thiago Moises 1 25 of 39 64% 53 of 72 2 of 2 100% 1 0 6:36
Mitch Ramirez 0 16 of 48 33% 28 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Thiago Moises 0 4 of 6 66% 25 of 31 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:18
Mitch Ramirez 0 6 of 8 75% 17 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Thiago Moises 0 15 of 26 57% 22 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:14
Mitch Ramirez 0 10 of 39 25% 11 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
3 Thiago Moises 1 6 of 7 85% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Mitch Ramirez 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Thiago Moises 25 of 39 64% 10 of 23 3 of 4 12 of 12 17 of 30 2 of 2 6 of 7
Mitch Ramirez 16 of 48 33% 4 of 32 5 of 7 7 of 9 13 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Thiago Moises 4 of 6 66% 1 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2
Mitch Ramirez 6 of 8 75% 0 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 5 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Thiago Moises 15 of 26 57% 8 of 18 2 of 3 5 of 5 13 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
Mitch Ramirez 10 of 39 25% 4 of 30 4 of 5 2 of 4 7 of 36 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Thiago Moises 6 of 7 85% 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 5
Mitch Ramirez 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Thiago Moises vs. Mitch Ramirez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Moises (-410), Ramirez (+320)

Round 1
Originally expecting to face Brad Riddell in the co-main event slot, Moises (17-7, 6-5 UFC) instead tumbles down to the early prelims to take on late replacement and UFC debutant Ramirez (8-1, 0-0 UFC), who lost in an appearance on last year’s Contender Series. The two lightweights will be joined in the Octagon by referee Mark Smith, who clocks them in as the fighters consider but abandon a glove touch. The two start rapping the other’s calf with kicks one after the other, testing the waters and doing some work early. They proceed to take turns with these kicks until Moises decides to mix things up with a tackling double-leg takedown. Moises succeeds in placing Ramirez on his seat, and Ramirez turns to his side in hopes of finding a sweep. Moises shuts it down and shifts to half guard, where he slowly opens up with elbow strikes. Ramirez bucks and twists, but the heavy Brazilian is not going anywhere as he proceeds to smother and land shots. Ramirez uses all his might to pop up, but Moises drags him down from behind until Ramirez realizes he should not give up his back and turns over again. Moises leans down to potentially set up an arm-triangle choke, but with half guard on the other side, he is unable to find the right leverage. Ramirez scoots himself to the wall, but Moises drags him away from it so he can hope to pass. Moises lets it go so he can slash down with elbows, and he gets bucked off but this is the best thing for him. Ramirez turns to crawl away on his knees, and like a predatory animal, Moises pounces on his back. Moises almost immediately gets the hooks in and secures a body triangle, and as Ramirez turns over to his back, Moises is already fishing for a rear-naked choke. Ramirez hand-fights well enough to prevent the choke from getting close, and Moises slides arms back and forth in search of the sub. Moises softens his man up with a couple strikes, and Ramirez tries to swing back from behind his head. The round ends in this dominant position, with the horn blaring twice.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises

Round 2
The lightweights come together in the middle of the cage, and Ramirez pushes the pace by leading off with a whipping overhand right. As Ramirez tries to shove the Brazilian against the wall, Moises turns him about. The two jockey for position while tied up, and Moises tangles up the legs for a trip attempt but does not find it. Moises drives a knee to the chest as he looks for another entry, with a double that fails. This allows Ramirez to break free, and Moises chops down on his lead leg as he gets backed off with punches. Moises reaches out with a front kick, and leans back as a head kick whizzes past his face. Ramirez swings as hard as he can with a right hand, and the veteran shoots in for a double and drives Ramirez back to the wall. The two do a little slow dance when up close in the clinch, and Moises breaks free with an elbow and misses with a front kick by a matter of inches. Ramirez punches his way forward into a clinch, and he is turned around and smacked in the face a few times. Moises lets go to reset, and he kicks the calf of his opponent that is welted and swollen badly. Ramirez kicks back, but Moises aims at the same target again to make Ramirez recoil. As he does this, he fires off a front kick and stings Ramirez with an overhand right. Moises chops low and spins with a wheel kick that buzzes the side of the head, and he calmly works his way forward, landing shots to chop away. Ramirez goes after two leg kicks of his own, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises

Round 3
Moises begins the round with a front kick, and
he knocks Ramirez off his feet with a vicious low kick. Ramirez hits the deck, and a ferocious Moises chases after him and whips four low kicks down reminiscent of Donald Cerrone against Myles Jury.
Ramirez grimaces in pain and Smith recognizes that he is done, and he waves off the fight. This is a statement performance for the Brazilian, who registers his first knockout as a UFC fighter by putting the newcomer away with leg kicks.

The Official Result
Thiago Moises def. Mitch Ramirez R3 0:15 via TKO (Leg Kicks)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Angelo expects Moises to be a big favorite. He is a slick grappler who stays composed and works for submissions, with technical striking and solid low kicks to set up takedowns. Although Moises was taken down five times and mauled by Benoit Saint-Denis, Angelo notes that Ramirez is not on that level. He thinks Moises will win the striking exchanges and is good enough to defend takedowns or sweep off bottom. He will bet if the line is favorable.

waiting for odds; will bet if line is favorable
"Moises is the pick and if we somehow get something that even resembles a favorable line I'm probably going to go ahead and jump on him here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Big Brady picks Thiago Moises to win by second-round submission. He views this as a levels fight, with Moises' BJJ and experience being far superior to Ramirez, who is coming in on short notice. He expects Moises to get a takedown and submit Ramirez.

by second round submission
"I'm going to take Thiago Moises to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Cody picks Thiago Moises, noting his experience against top competition and superior skills everywhere. He acknowledges Ramirez's danger as a short-notice debutant but believes Moises is better on the feet and on the ground. He warns about Moises' durability but expects him to win.

"Moises is a legitimate gatekeeper to the top 15... how does Mitch Ramirez pull this thing out of his hat?"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Thiago Moises

The host notes that Ramirez is stepping in on short notice and is less skilled and experienced than Moises. He expects Moises to have the technical striking advantage and eventually open up a club-and-sub opportunity to choke out Ramirez, getting back in the win column.

"I think that will eventually open up a club and sub opportunity to choke out Ramirez and get Moes back on The Winning Side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Paul agrees, stating Moises is better everywhere and has seen every trick Ramirez might have. He notes Ramirez's Contender Series loss and lack of high-level experience. He will not bet Ramirez.

"Moises seems like the rightful favorite here I will not be betting Mitch Ramirez."
KO/TKO R2 4:44 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 02, 2023
Submission R2 4:05 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Submission R1 3:05 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Trey Ogden - Fight History
CANCEL vs Tommy Gantt
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tommy Gantt

Angelo picks Tommy Gantt because he believes Gantt is better everywhere, especially in wrestling. He notes Gantt's athleticism, speed, and finishing ability, while Trey Ogden lacks answers for Gantt's wrestling. He expects Gantt to take Ogden down at will and do more damage.

"Tommy's going to be better basically everywhere and certainly better at than Trey at Trey's best thing. So, Tommy's going to be the pick."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tommy Gantt

Lucrative James picks Tommy Gantt, citing his size, physicality, and undefeated record. He believes Gantt can make the fight gritty and get takedowns, while Ogden may struggle with pace. He predicts a decision win for Gantt.

"I'll pick Tommy to win this fight and I'll pick Tommy to win this fight via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tommy Gantt

The host acknowledges Gantt's superior wrestling and athleticism but is hesitant to trust him at -240 due to his low level of competition and the trend of undefeated prospects struggling against tested UFC veterans. He predicts Gantt wins by decision but does not recommend betting him.

"I'm a big Trey Ogden fan. I still think that Gant is just too good of an athlete, too good of a wrestler, and will go out there and dominate a lot of these positions. I think that will lead …"
LOSS vs Thiago Moises
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trey Ogden 0 42 of 86 48% 97 of 157 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:36
Loik Radzhabov 0 24 of 47 51% 116 of 148 4 of 5 80% 2 0 9:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trey Ogden 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Loik Radzhabov 0 1 of 3 33% 40 of 47 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:35
2 Trey Ogden 0 22 of 49 44% 33 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Loik Radzhabov 0 22 of 42 52% 41 of 61 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:05
3 Trey Ogden 0 18 of 33 54% 62 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:33
Loik Radzhabov 0 1 of 2 50% 35 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trey Ogden 42 of 86 48% 38 of 78 2 of 6 2 of 2 23 of 56 1 of 1 18 of 29
Loik Radzhabov 24 of 47 51% 14 of 35 5 of 5 5 of 7 21 of 44 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trey Ogden 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Loik Radzhabov 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Trey Ogden 22 of 49 44% 19 of 42 1 of 5 2 of 2 21 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Loik Radzhabov 22 of 42 52% 14 of 32 5 of 5 3 of 5 19 of 39 2 of 2 1 of 1
3 Trey Ogden 18 of 33 54% 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 18 of 29
Loik Radzhabov 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Trey Ogden vs. Loik Radzhabov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Radzhabov (-115), Ogden (-105)

Round 1
After suffering the first stoppage loss in his career, Radzhabov (18-5-1, 2-1 UFC) bounced back in a big way by clubbing Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady in March. He hopes to pull another knockout rabbit out of his hat when he throws down with Marathon MMA head coach Ogden (17-6, 1 NC; 2-2, 1 NC UFC). Of note, Ogden’s last victory came over Kurt Holobaugh, and yet Holobaugh will fight much higher up on this card tonight. The third man in the Octagon will be referee Herb Dean, and the lightweights touch ‘em up. Radzhabov is ready and waiting when Ogden comes after him, and he coils and fires a right hand to back Ogden off. “The Shamurai” ducks a second looping punch, and he snatches up the legs of his opponent and deposits Radzhabov down to the canvas to send an early message. Radzhabov posts off his right arm and tries to work himself up to his knees, and Ogden holds on from behind and looks for a mat return. Radzhabov grabs the fence, and the onlookers cry foul as Dean takes a look but does say anything. Ogden succeeds in dragging “The Tajik Tank” down from behind, getting both of his hooks in as he is quick to search for a rear-naked choke. Ogden drapes his arm on Radzhabov’s face and squeezes, and he lets it go as Radzhabov turns around to his knees. Ogden smacks Radzhabov on the sides of the head from behind as he looks to flatten Radzhabov, and he goes hunting for another rear-naked choke that nearly gets beneath the chin. Ogden turns Radzhabov over and secures a body triangle, and he softens Radzhabov up with strikes on either side. Radzhabov twists and turns but is unable to get the body lock off of him, and Ogden makes his life miserable by covering his mouth and holding tight. Ogden tries for a brute force neck crank, but Radzhabov turns his head to the right direction to stop it from going anywhere. Radzhabov hand-fights effectively to stop Ogden from sinking the choke in, and he turns over to his knees but is unsuccessful to get out thanks in part to Ogden’s body triangle. Ogden gets closer on his choke attempt, but once more Radzhabov defends it properly. Ogden gets a forearm on the chin, and he thinks about using a face crank but does not decide to turn his arms out. Radzhabov defends himself enough to survive the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 2
Before the second round begins, Dean brings in the translator to issue a hard warning for Radzhabov grabbing the fence in the previous round. Radzhabov acknowledges this and the round begins. Radzhabov comes out firing, and Ogden is elusive enough to avoid the worst of the blows but takes a solid uppercut before tying Radzhabov up. Radzhabov spins away and whips a left hook at his man, and he races forward swinging hard. Radzhabov stifles a desperate single, and Ogden is backed up against the cage wall and gets clipped by the hard-swinging fighter known as “The Tajik Tank.” Ogden lands a low kick to briefly slow Radzhabov down, and he brings up a knee when they clinch for a second. Ogden tosses out a left hand as he wobbles back from big right hands from his adversary, and Radzhabov swings that same blow at him several times to moderate effect. Ogden checks a leg kick and gives one back, and Radzhabov crashes the pocket and lands two thudding right hooks before Ogden ties him up again. Ogden chooses to break free and reset, and Radzhabov continues plodding forward swinging mighty fists. The fighter from Tajikistan connects with a stern uppercut, and Ogden replies with a body lock and a takedown that he lands with relative ease. Even easier, Ogden walks into full mount, and he uses a modified arm-triangle choke to flatten Radzhabov out from above. Ogden sits down on the arm-triangle choke and presses his weight down, and Radzhabov’s face starts changing colors even as he defends the grip by answering the phone. Ogden leans down on one side and remains in full mount as he does so, and he elects to move to the side to complete it but loses the grip and hops back to mount. Radzhabov survives the submission as Ogden uses heavy shoulder pressure to frustrate him, and he bucks as hard as he can to scramble and get Ogden off of him. Ogden looks to flip him over and trap him in a submission roll, but he cannot keep Radzhabov grounded. Both men get to their feet, and Radzhabov tries and fails to land power strikes before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 3
Radzhabov’s corner spills ice and water on the floor, a veteran move to get more time, and someone has to rush into the cage to wipe up the excess liquid as Joe Rogan is screaming at his screen from afar. Ogden begins the round by backpedaling when Radzhabov comes at him, and he uses Radzhabov’s momentum against him by tackling him to the mat and landing in a controlling half guard. Ogden bops Radzhabov with a few short, light strikes before wrapping his left arm around the back of Radzhabov’s head to set up another submission. Like a snake, Ogden slowly and methodically wraps up the arm-triangle choke, and Radzhabov keeps himself from getting snared entirely but cannot keep Ogden from climbing into the full mount position. Radzhabov smacks Ogden on the side of the head with his free right hand, irritating Ogden enough to bring his hand up to block the blows before lowering himself all the way flat on top. An Ezekiel choke is briefly in play for “Shamurai,” but he decides against wrapping his forearm on the windpipe so he can drill Radzhabov in the face with shoulder shots. Dean calls for more action even with Ogden in mount, and Radzhabov answers the call and explodes upright and falls into a guillotine choke. Radzhabov spins out of it and flips Ogden to his back, and he hammers down with vicious ground-and-pound until Ogden ties him up for a second. Ogden uses a butterfly guard to put his feet on the hips and hits a sweep, but Radzhabov is savvy enough to lower himself into the guard and posture up to blast Ogden with heavy punches. Radzhabov grabs the fence to turn himself in an effort to secure better position, and Dean goes to slap his hand but Radzhabov pulls it back to release more punches and elbows on Ogden’s dome. Ogden retaliates by sending Radzhabov flying when he kicks off the hips, and Radzhabov races after him to get on top and ride out the remainder of the bout.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Radzhabov (29-28 Ogden)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Radzhabov (29-28 Ogden)

The Official Result
Trey Ogden def. Loik Radzhabov via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

Angelo picks Trey Ogden as an underdog because he trusts Ogden's consistent, boring game plan of takedowns and control. He notes that Loik Radzhabov has subpar takedown defense and can be taken down multiple times, while Ogden is confident and will shoot takedowns. He plans to watch the line movement and potentially bet if the odds improve.

watching line movement for better odds
"I think Trey wins this fight and I love him as an underdog I'm going to keep an eye on these odds and see if I can get it better than plus 127"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

Cody picks Ogden, citing his 100% takedown defense in the UFC and his ability to neutralize opponents with top control. He questions Radzhabov's cardio and thinks Ogden can outwork him with volume and key takedowns. He admits it's a close fight but likes Ogden's game plan.

"I locked in with Ogden and I ain't changing it."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Daniel Vreeland picks Loik Radzhabov, criticizing Trey Ogden's safe, risk-averse style. He notes Ogden's recent wins were against opponents who underperformed, and that Radzhabov is a physical, aggressive fighter who will force a fight. Vreeland believes Radzhabov's pressure and takedown ability will overwhelm Ogden.

"I'm gonna go lck ratol to beat Trey Ogden"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

Ogden is a pick'em at -110. He has a disciplined game plan and excellent top control, as seen against Holobaugh. He can weather Radzhabov's early power and then take over with his wrestling and cardio in the second and third rounds. Radzhabov tends to fade, and Ogden's fight IQ should allow him to set up takedowns as the fight progresses. The main concern is Ogden's durability, but his overall game plan and cardio favor him.

"I think that Ogden will set up a good enough game plan here to keep rajabov working so that those takedowns will start to come easier in the second and third rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

Paul also picks Ogden, liking his last two fights and smart game plans. He thinks it will be a close, greasy fight likely going to decision. He suggests looking at split decision props.

"I'm going to side with you on Trey Ogden as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

The MMA Guru picks Loik Radzhabov over Trey Ogden. He compares Ogden to Abdul Kareem Al-Selwady and notes Ogden's tricky outside fighting style but points out his loss to Jordan Leavitt as worrying. He highlights Radzhabov's dangerous early rounds and close fight with Esteban Ribovics, and believes Radzhabov can win by TKO or decision, possibly slowing down in the third.

by tKO or maybe even a decision win 2928
"I am going to go against uh Trey Ogden here and I'm going to go with Lo rajabov getting this one done by either t KO or maybe even a decision win"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trey Ogden 0 29 of 68 42% 129 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Kurt Holobaugh 0 35 of 66 53% 225 of 320 3 of 4 75% 0 0 11:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trey Ogden 0 5 of 14 35% 43 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kurt Holobaugh 0 1 of 11 9% 68 of 94 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:12
2 Trey Ogden 0 20 of 42 47% 39 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Kurt Holobaugh 0 26 of 41 63% 75 of 119 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:52
3 Trey Ogden 0 4 of 12 33% 47 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kurt Holobaugh 0 8 of 14 57% 82 of 107 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trey Ogden 29 of 68 42% 9 of 43 9 of 12 11 of 13 24 of 63 3 of 3 2 of 2
Kurt Holobaugh 35 of 66 53% 22 of 52 4 of 4 9 of 10 28 of 59 2 of 2 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trey Ogden 5 of 14 35% 1 of 10 2 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1
Kurt Holobaugh 1 of 11 9% 1 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Trey Ogden 20 of 42 47% 5 of 25 7 of 8 8 of 9 16 of 38 3 of 3 1 of 1
Kurt Holobaugh 26 of 41 63% 15 of 29 4 of 4 7 of 8 19 of 34 2 of 2 5 of 5
3 Trey Ogden 4 of 12 33% 3 of 8 0 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kurt Holobaugh 8 of 14 57% 6 of 12 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kurt Holobaugh vs. Trey Ogden
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ogden (-155), Holobaugh (+130)

Round 1
Two submission specialists come together in the preliminary headliner, and both men are in desperate need of a win given their track records with the promotion thus far. Holobaugh (20-7, 1 NC; 1-4 UFC) is trying to make his third stint in the UFC the best, while Ogden (16-6, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) is still fuming about a premature stoppage of Nikolas Motta from November that cost him a win bonus. Barring something crazy, a win bonus will be doled out, and referee Mark Smith may be the first to know who that is. The lightweights touch gloves, and Holobaugh puts a few quick combinations together as Ogden sits down on a leg kick and swatting left hand. Ogden doubles up on a jab and eats a body shot, and Holobaugh crowds him and kicks him hard on the lead leg. Ogden feints a takedown, drawing a short flurry of strikes that allows him to shoot and take Holobaugh down to the mat. Ogden gets busy with flailing punches, and Holobaugh is just as busy if not more as he attacks with short strikes and elbows. Ogden lowers himself down in pursuit of an arm-triangle choke, and he gets smacked a few times in the back of the head. Ogden, in half guard, again presses his shoulder down for the arm-triangle, and he bops Holobaugh in the side of the head with short but irritating hammerfists. Holobaugh hooks his legs around Ogden’s to keep him from passing or advancing position, so Ogden sits there comfortably scoring short punches and shoulder strikes. Ogden postures up to land harder blows, and he drives his shoulder in Holobaugh’s chin once more to conclude the frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 2
Holobaugh practically sprints out of his corner to engage, and he eats a leg kick on the way in. Holobaugh tries to come out swinging again, and Ogden kicks his other leg out. Ogden chews up both legs with kicks, and he fakes his way forward and kiais to draw out a reaction. Ogden smacks him in the face with a question mark kick, and he slides away as Holobaugh chases for a counter. Holobaugh lands a body kick, and they trade one-twos. Ogden digs a kick to the ribcage, and he has a leg kick checked when he backs up against the cage. Ogden shoots for a takedown, and Holobaugh stuffs him and rings his bell with two fierce right hands. Ogden jabs once to make him retreat, and he points at Holobaugh after absorbing a low kick. Ogden tries to tie him up when Holobaugh crowds him, and he gets off a few short knees and trips Holobaugh up to dump him on the ground. Ogden threatens with an arm-triangle choke, pressing his shoulder down on the windpipe until smashing them down on Holobaugh’s face. Holobaugh turns to his side in an effort to escape, and Ogden pounds away at him with his free right hand. Ogden’s fist continues to meet face again and again, and Holobaugh can only grab Ogden’s wrist or block his face to defend from the methodical bludgeoning. Ogden fearlessly clubs away, picking up the pace as he looks for a stoppage. Holobaugh recovers well enough to stave off Smith’s itchy trigger finger, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 3
The gloves are touched, and Holobaugh aggressively pursues his man around the cage only to eat a number of jabs and low kicks while trying to close the distance. Ogden stays elusive and does not let Holobaugh crowd him, but he stands still and gets beaned with two right hands. As he shakes it off, he shoots in for a perfect takedown that deposits the TUF winner on his back. Holobaugh closes guard as Ogden works him from on top, and the man now known as “Shamurai” methodically climbs into half guard while continuously beating on his opponent. Ogden grinds out time as he clubs Holobaugh with hammerfists and punches, not allowing Holobaugh to breathe or get anything off of merit on his own side. With a minute to go, Ogden jumps into full mount, and he decides against trying anything reckless. The control on top carries out until the final bell, and Holobaugh gets up and walks off irritated about the fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)

The Official Result
Trey Ogden def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

Angelo is confident in Trey Ogden, having placed a half-unit bet on him at -146. He believes Ogden can hang in the striking, get takedowns, and work from top position. He notes that Ogden was winning the striking exchanges in his last fight before the early stoppage, and his grappling should be enough to overcome Holobaugh's BJJ.

half unit bet at -146
"I like Trey Ogden to win this fight I'm pretty confident in Trey Ogden I have a half of a unit on Trey Ogden at minus 146"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Big Brady picks Kurt Holobaugh, citing his dangerous submissions and Trey Ogden's history of being submitted (three times, twice by guillotine). He notes Holobaugh is a wild man who comes forward, while Ogden is more technical but has been submitted before. He predicts Holobaugh will submit Ogden in the second round.

second round submission
"I'm going to take Hollow ball here to win this fight I think he's gonna I'll say gets a sub I'll say he submits Trey Ogden at some point I just think Hala so dangerous on the mat"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Cody picks Holobaugh, citing his forward pressure, volume, and submission threat. He notes that Ogden's wrestling may not hold Holobaugh down, and Holobaugh's scrambling and aggression could sway judges. Cody sees Holobaugh as the dog with value.

"Kurt Hala and the pick is going to be Kurt HBA."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Kurt Holobaugh, agreeing with the co-host that this is a pick'em fight. He notes Ogden's recent win was against a low-level opponent and that Holobaugh has more power and output. He prefers the underdog in a close fight, citing judging uncertainty.

"I'm gonna also go with Halo there"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

Ogden showed a complete performance in his last fight (no contest) with seamless striking and grappling. He should dictate the pace from the outside with straight shots and then mix in takedowns. Holobaugh is a BJJ black belt but has poor takedown defense and tends to invite grappling. Ogden's constant movement and jab should cause issues, leading to a decision win.

Ogden by decision
"I do like Ogden here I think he can dictate and control the pace of this fight with relative ease... I'm going to go with Ogden here I think Ogden wins by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Paul sides with Cody, noting Holobaugh's experience and dangerous submission game. He thinks Ogden's game plan of taking down Holobaugh is risky due to Holobaugh's ability to scramble and threaten submissions. Paul picks the veteran.

"I'll side with you with the veteran and Kurt halah."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

The MMA Guru picks Kurt Holobaugh over Trey Ogden, praising Holobaugh's boxing and ground game. He thinks Holobaugh will drop Ogden and then submit him via guillotine choke after Ogden shoots for a takedown. He notes Holobaugh's experience and full training camp.

submission win, round one or two
"I'm going Kurt hollar... drops Trey Ogden... gets Guillotine choked out by Kurt hollar in round one or two"
LOSS vs Nikolas Motta
No Contest (premature stoppage) R3 3:11 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trey Ogden 0 58 of 83 69% 96 of 128 3 of 16 18% 1 0 4:28
Nikolas Motta 0 14 of 80 17% 16 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trey Ogden 0 16 of 25 64% 35 of 49 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:18
Nikolas Motta 0 2 of 17 11% 2 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Trey Ogden 0 41 of 56 73% 43 of 59 1 of 9 11% 0 0 0:23
Nikolas Motta 0 12 of 58 20% 12 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Trey Ogden 0 1 of 2 50% 18 of 20 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:47
Nikolas Motta 0 0 of 5 0% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trey Ogden 58 of 83 69% 49 of 74 6 of 6 3 of 3 44 of 65 13 of 17 1 of 1
Nikolas Motta 14 of 80 17% 8 of 73 5 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trey Ogden 16 of 25 64% 11 of 20 2 of 2 3 of 3 12 of 20 4 of 5 0 of 0
Nikolas Motta 2 of 17 11% 0 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Trey Ogden 41 of 56 73% 37 of 52 4 of 4 0 of 0 31 of 43 9 of 12 1 of 1
Nikolas Motta 12 of 58 20% 8 of 53 4 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Trey Ogden 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nikolas Motta 0 of 5 0% 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nikolas Motta vs. Trey Ogden
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Motta (-135), Ogden (+114)

Round 1
Moving on to the lightweight division, two fighters will set foot in the cage hoping right the ship after losses earlier in the year, and the next victory will even their UFC record. Whether it is Ogden (16-6, 1-2 UFC) or Motta (13-5, 1-2 UFC), they will have the next three rounds or less to decide. Referee Mike Beltran draws the charge, and he sits back as the fighters do not choose to touch ‘em up. Both fighters fake jabs at one another, and then they reach out with jabs that do not find their targets. The first land is from Ogden in the form of a prodding jab, and he wipes his hands on his shorts. Ogden snaps out another jab as Motta comes in, and Motta sits down on a leg kick in response. Ogden gets in a jab and dodges when Motta counters, and he ducks away as Motta swings at him. Motta throws a kick, and Ogden catches it and goes after a single. Ogden presses his foe against the fence when the takedown does not materialize, and he is warned for grabbing the fence to keep Motta trapped on it. Ogden softens the body up with a few knees before pushing off, and he drops down for another single and bails on it to go up top with a right and a left. Ogden snipes his foe with another sharp jab, snapping the head back and disrupting the power coming back at him. Ogden shoots for a naked double-leg takedown, and Motta stands him up but gets popped with another jab. Motta prepares for another takedown and halts it, and Ogden once more sticks him with the jab. Ogden kicks low and rifles out a few jabs, and Motta is unable to let go with power punches as a result. Motta’s nose begins to glow like Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer, and he defends against another shot but eats a number of jabs. Ogden snake-charms his opponent with jabs, and as Motta overswings on a right hand, he drops down low and secures a double to dump the Brazilian on his back. Ogden moves right to half guard with ease, and he grinds out the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 2
Ogden is ready and rearing to pick up right where he left off, and he pushes out a jab and beats Motta to the punch a few times. Motta rushes out throwing big punches, but Ogden sees them coming and evades them. Motta looks for a head kick at the end of a few strikes, and Ogden parries and strafes to the side. Ogden ducks and runs to the side when Motta swings for the bleachers, and he gets back into position and pierces the guard with a jab. An overzealous Motta runs into a takedown attempt, and he manages to stop it and throw hand back. Ogden keeps composed and rolls with the punches, what few Motta has landed. Motta unloads a right hand that skims past the side of his foe’s head, and Ogden answers this with a double attempt. Motta stifles this and chomps down on a few more jabs as mis mouth opens from the blows. Ogden fails on another takedown attempt, but his follow-up punches are largely finding their mark while Motta swings back hitting air. Ogden stands in one place a little too long and takes a right hand on the chin, and this wobbles him as he stumbles away. Motta tries to give chase, but Ogden takes a quick count of his teeth and smacks the Brazilian with a left hook. The jabs continue to mount by the busy Ogden, who regains his sea legs as he further marks up Motta’s face. Ogden fakes out his foe to grab hold of him with a body lock, and he delivers a pair of knees to the body. Motta pushes off and continues to throw wildly, and every so often he does manage a land. Motta dips down to block a takedown, and Ogden opens up with three punches and a blocked head kick. Ogden slings Motta to the ground with sheer strength, and Motta climbs back up and takes a knee up the middle and a right hand. Motta shakes it off and continues relentlessly throwing power punches, but Ogden sees most of them coming and does work with his jab and follow-up hook. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 3
The two have reached the final round, and they meet in the middle and trade hands. Ogden hops back away from the power right hand, and he glances it off the cheek and surprises Ogden. The Marathon MMA fighter doggedly goes after a takedown, and Motta hops across the cage and keeps his balance. Ogden exerts himself and dumps the Brazilian to his seat, and he wraps his legs around Motta’s for a partial mount position. Motta sits himself against the fence, and Ogden drags him flat to his back as he slides himself a bit higher to claim full mount. “Samurai Ghost” maintains heavy chest pressure and bonks Motta in the side of the head with open palm strikes, and he squeezes down to set up an arm-triangle choke and slips his left arm behind Motta’s head. Ogden adjusts his grip and talks to his corner, and he follows their instructions to lock down the arm-triangle choke. Ogden steps over to the side as he presses down with all his might.
Beltran tells Motta to show him he is still in the fight, and Motta fights the grip and is still with it. Beltran checks on Motta’s hand and believes that Motta is out, and he steps in to stop the fight. Motta immediately screams at Beltran, saying he was not out and asking why the fight is over.
By first glance, it appears to be a bit of a premature stoppage, as Motta was not rendered unconscious and his attempts to signal Beltran something like a thumbs-up would put him further in danger. For now, the result is what it is, a win by technical submission for Ogden, unless the replay goes over the footage and determines something else. As it turns out, they do.

The Official Result
Trey Ogden vs. Nikolas Motta is Ruled a No Contest (Premature Stoppage) R3 3:11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Angelo leans towards Nikolas Motta, expecting him to stay busy on the feet and keep Trey Ogden out of his wrestling rhythm. He notes Motta has solid takedown defense and explosive striking. He predicts a decision win for Motta.

"I am leaning the Nicholas Mata side"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Big Brady calls this a terrible fight, criticizing Trey Ogden for being a point striker who doesn't engage and has zero knockout wins. He thinks Motta has a questionable chin but will land big shots because Ogden will be running around. He predicts Motta wins by decision because he looks like he wants to be there, but he has little interest in the fight.

"I think Moda is going to land a couple big shots here to sway the judges I think it's going to be one of those fights where it looks like Nicholas Modo wants to be there and it looks like …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Cody picks Nikolas Motta, citing his superior striking and hand speed. He notes that Ogden has no knockout power and low volume. Motta's chin is a concern, but Ogden is unlikely to exploit it. Cody expects Motta to out-strike Ogden and win.

"it's M for me as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Trey Ogden

Ogden is a BJJ black belt who can implement his grappling pressure similar to his win over Zellhuber. He will walk Motta down, land kicks and punches, then change levels for takedowns. Motta has questionable durability and grappling acumen, having been knocked out recently and not tested on the ground. Ogden can find a submission victory.

submission victory
"I like Ogden in this spot I like him as the underdog um I think I think he can actually even open up a finishing opportunity for himself considering that he has that Advantage like I said on the mat …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikolas Motta

Paul picks Motta, noting his better boxing and speed. He mentions Ogden's lack of power and inability to wrestle effectively. Paul thinks Motta can win by decision or TKO if he avoids getting hit clean.

"I'm with you Nicholas Ma"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

The MMA Guru picks Trey Ogden over Nikolas Motta, citing Motta's lack of momentum after being knocked out by Manuel Torres and Jim Miller. He notes Ogden's tricky style and competitive fights against Ignacio Bahamondes and Daniel Zellhuber, and believes Ogden can outpoint Motta on the outside to a decision win.

"I'm going to go with Trey Ogden over Nicholas Motta here... I think he's tricky, he's given tricky fights to really good opponents... I reckon Trey Ogden can make it tricky for him on the outside and point his way …"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 99 of 200 49% 99 of 200 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trey Ogden 0 42 of 109 38% 42 of 109 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 26 of 51 50% 26 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trey Ogden 0 9 of 22 40% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 30 of 66 45% 30 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trey Ogden 0 16 of 45 35% 16 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 43 of 83 51% 43 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trey Ogden 0 17 of 42 40% 17 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ignacio Bahamondes 99 of 200 49% 28 of 88 30 of 65 41 of 47 99 of 200 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Ogden 42 of 109 38% 24 of 81 10 of 15 8 of 13 42 of 109 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 26 of 51 50% 7 of 19 4 of 15 15 of 17 26 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Ogden 9 of 22 40% 3 of 12 1 of 2 5 of 8 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ignacio Bahamondes 30 of 66 45% 9 of 33 11 of 20 10 of 13 30 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Ogden 16 of 45 35% 8 of 33 5 of 7 3 of 5 16 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ignacio Bahamondes 43 of 83 51% 12 of 36 15 of 30 16 of 17 43 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Ogden 17 of 42 40% 13 of 36 4 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Trey Ogden
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bahamondes (-345), Ogden (+285)

Round 1
Due to bout cancelations, matchup switcheroos and a bunch of other oddities, this fight set in the cage now is taking place at a pre-planned 160 pounds. After over a year off, Bahamondes (13-4, 2-1 UFC) wants to shake off any rust and handle Ogden (16-5, 1-1 UFC). The style matchup is intriguing, with all but one of Bahamondes’ career stoppages by knockout, while Ogden has never once performed a stoppage due to strikes. Referee Andrew Glenn is on call for this catchweight contest, and it opens up with no touch of gloves. Bahamondes starts with a low leg kick, and Ogden hops forward to stomp his foe’s knee. Ogden pursues an inside leg kick, and Bahamondes counters with a pair of punches. The Chilean fighter paws at him with at front kick and a jab, looking to establish his superior reach advantage. Ogden attacks his lead leg, and Bahamondes responds in kind. Bahamondes chips at the lead calf, allowing himself to be opened up to catch a left to the chin. Bahamondes rips a body kick, and he changes stances to line up a low kick. The pace is slow and very tit-for-tat, but Bahamondes appears to be landing with heavier leg kicks than his opponent. One in particular makes Ogden turn his leg into it, and he swats away a long jab and counters with a left. The stance switching from “La Jaula” frustrates his opponent and disrupts much of his offense, while setting up leg kicks from either leg. Ogden takes several more kicks to the inside and outside of his lead wheel, and he rolls with the brunt of a one-two. Ogden leans back but cannot block a right hand, and Bahamondes blasts him in the midsection with a kick. Ogden points to his elbow to say that he blocked it, and he gets stung with a left to follow. Ogden backs up into the fence and is nearly turned around from a leg kick, and Bahamondes chops at it indiscriminately. Bahamondes settles down to fire off another kick to the ribcage, and he darts back when Ogden punches him in the side. Ogden’s offense is limited to single blows, and Bahamondes is potshotting him from afar. They clash legs when kicking at one another, and Bahamondes spins with a back kick to the breadbasket. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes

Round 2
The second frame opens as the two meet directly in the center of the cage, and Bahamondes leads off with several punches and whiffs with a wheel kick. Bahamondes steps through to light up the body with a kick, and Ogden slides to the side to fire off a trio of punches and an open-handed slap. They trade low kicks, and Bahamondes lines up a solid kick to the body. Bahamondes connects with a clean one-two, beating Ogden to the punch in most of their exchanges. Ogden goes up high with a kick, and “La Jaula” blocks it with ease. Bahamondes outjabs his foe, and Ogden shoots in from a healthy distance and is stuffed. Bahamondes retreats and lines up a low kick and a long left hand, and Ogden loads up on a left hand to respond. Ogden attempts to check a leg kick, and Bahamondes digs a few punches to the body. Bahamondes reaches his man and gets out before getting countered, and he protects himself from a high kick. The jabs and straight punches to the body continue to come from Bahamondes, who leaps into a flying knee and bounces off his target. Ogden blocks a body kick as the crowd showers the two cautious strikers with boos. These seem to excite “Samurai Ghost” momentarily, who chases Bahamondes down and connects with a combination. Ogden swipes out with a left hand, and Bahamondes chops his leg down on the inside again. The action once again wanes, and the crowd is not slow to voice its disapproval. Bahamondes scores another body kick that Ogden motions did not connect, but it did slide under his elbow first. The two fighters trade jabs, and take turns with exchanges. Bahamondes kicks, Ogden responds, and Bahamondes continues. Bahamondes lands a pair of leg kicks on the inside, fires one off to the head, and the tepid round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes

Round 3
The final frame opens with Bahamondes taking the middle of the Octagon and spamming kicks to all targets. Ogden paws out a left hand, and it is a single strike answered by several from Bahamondes. Bahamondes hammers the body with a kick, and this time Ogden is not motioning anything, as that appeared to sting. Bahamondes reaches with a straight left hand, and does so a second time before working the lead leg with a hard kick. Bahamondes chains into a pair of body kick, where he switches stance to dig his shin on the underside of Ogden’s knee. The Chilean fighter constantly peppers Ogden with kicks, rarely aiming at the same spot twice in a row. A leg kick from his right leg is followed by one from his left to the head, and then his right foot pushes out with a front kick. Bahamondes continues his lumberjack routine of chopping down the tree that is Ogden, and he slaps Ogden in the face with his instep. Ogden is left guessing or flailing at the wind, with left hooks that are nearly a foot short of the mark or low kicks that have little on them. The audience starts lighting up their phones and waving around the lights, all while raining down a wall of boos. The pace does not change for the fighters, as Bahamondes is comfortable with his calm yet active approach. Ogden dings Bahamondes with a left, but it is one-and-done before Bahamondes scores three times from a distance. Bahamondes jabs the body and spins with a kick to the midsection, and he hops back when Ogden aims a right hand down towards the breadbasket. Bahamondes swings a check right hook when Ogden advances, but it does not slow “Samurai Ghost” from throwing a solid right. Bahamondes misses the mark with a spinning wheel kick, but a second spin in the form of a back kick lands on the ribs and pushes Ogden into the wall. Bahamondes spins with a back fist, a wheel kick and then fires an axe kick, and Ogden stands in front of him until the horn blares to end this lackluster match.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes (30-27 Bahamondes)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes (30-27 Bahamondes)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes (30-27 Bahamondes)

The Official Result
Ignacio Bahamondes def. Trey Ogden via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Angelo is very confident in Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his length, reach, surprising output, good power, footwork, and 95% takedown defense. He notes that Trey Ogden is stepping up on short notice and has had to cut weight twice in a few weeks, which is a disadvantage. He believes Ignacio will dominate with his striking and is one of his most confident picks on the card.

"this is Ignacio bahamandez all day long all day long"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Big Brady is confident in Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his improved takedown defense and striking advantage. He notes that Trey Ogden has poor takedown accuracy (15%) and struggled against Jordan Levitt. He believes Bahamondes will outclass Ogden on the feet and potentially finish him, but predicts a decision win. He mentions the line movement as a sign of confidence.

"I think bahamonus is going to show up here and I think Baja Monday's styles on Ogden across three rounds potentially finishes him along the way"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Cody agrees with Paul on Bahamondes. He notes Bahamondes' potential and size advantage, and that Ogden's wins have come against lower-level competition. Cody points out Ogden's poor takedown defense and low striking output. He thinks Bahamondes will use his reach and volume to dominate. Cody says he probably won't bet it due to the price but agrees it's a solid pick.

"I think biomondice is a rifle favorite he's my pick at minus 335"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Bahamondes. He notes that Ogden is a fighter who makes it hard for opponents to hit him, but Bahamondes will keep throwing.

"Yep. Trying to not have a fight with Bahamondas is in fact, seems like a very dangerous path."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Jacob also loves Ignacio, calling it one of his favorite plays on the card. He emphasizes Ignacio's jab and length, and notes that Trey Ogden marches forward with his head on the center line, making him vulnerable. He warns against Ignacio pulling guillotines, as that could put him on his back, but believes if he sticks to jabbing, he will dominate.

"this is one of my favorite plays on the on the card as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Bahamondes is all violence with high volume, using his height and reach to keep opponents at distance. He has 95% takedown defense and trains with Belal Muhammad to improve his grappling. Ogden is a BJJ black belt but may struggle with Bahamondes' constant pressure and output. I expect Bahamondes to land a knockout as Ogden gets desperate with takedowns.

"I think that baja mundas will be more than ready with his footwork and his counters whether it's with that knee or that uppercut to me Trey Ogden and maybe even find a Knockout in the spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Paul is high on Bahamondes, calling him potential top ticket material. He highlights Bahamondes' massive size for lightweight (6'3", 75" reach), excellent volume, and takedown defense. Paul notes Bahamondes' cardio and durability, and that he keeps improving. He criticizes Ogden's low output and poor wrestling, and believes Bahamondes will outwork him easily. Paul expects a dominant performance.

"ohamanas might be top ticket material I think he absolutely goes there and rolls him up"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Ignacio Bahamondes

The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by second-round submission via guillotine or d'arce choke. He highlights Bahamondes' good reactions to takedown attempts and his striking at range with front kicks and straight punches. He predicts Ogden will shoot a sloppy takedown in the second round after being worn down by leg kicks and body shots, allowing Bahamondes to latch on a guillotine against the cage.

second round submission, guillotine or d'arce choke
"I'm gonna go with Ignacio by hamandez with a guillotine or a dash choke"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Zane picks Bahamondes because Ogden is a negative fighter who withdraws, and Bahamondes is pathologically aggressive. He notes that trying to not have a fight with Bahamondes is dangerous.

"I got to pick Bahamondas here though."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trey Ogden 0 71 of 168 42% 72 of 169 1 of 9 11% 0 0 0:38
Daniel Zellhuber 0 52 of 178 29% 52 of 178 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trey Ogden 0 20 of 47 42% 20 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Daniel Zellhuber 0 12 of 36 33% 12 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Trey Ogden 0 26 of 57 45% 27 of 58 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:38
Daniel Zellhuber 0 23 of 64 35% 23 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Trey Ogden 0 25 of 64 39% 25 of 64 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Daniel Zellhuber 0 17 of 78 21% 17 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trey Ogden 71 of 168 42% 22 of 109 7 of 13 42 of 46 71 of 168 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 52 of 178 29% 19 of 125 21 of 40 12 of 13 52 of 178 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trey Ogden 20 of 47 42% 1 of 24 1 of 3 18 of 20 20 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 12 of 36 33% 1 of 22 6 of 8 5 of 6 12 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Trey Ogden 26 of 57 45% 6 of 33 4 of 6 16 of 18 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 23 of 64 35% 8 of 40 10 of 19 5 of 5 23 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Trey Ogden 25 of 64 39% 15 of 52 2 of 4 8 of 8 25 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 17 of 78 21% 10 of 63 5 of 13 2 of 2 17 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Trey Ogden vs. Daniel Zellhuber
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zellhuber (-285), Ogden (+240)

Round 1
Like the Gravely-Basharat matchup from earlier, a fighter with at least 20 pro bouts will try to make a 12-0 fighter’s 0 go. In this instance, it is Glory MMA & Fitness’ Ogden (15-5, 0-1 UFC), who only finishes fights by submission, against unbeaten Mexican striker Zellhuber (12-0, 0-0 UFC). The third man in the cage for this lightweight tilt will be referee Herb Dean, and he sits back to observe a touch of gloves. There is a stalemate when the fight begins, with no strikes thrown for the first 20 seconds or so. Ogden punctuates the silence with a slapping kick to the outside of the newcomer’s leg, and he eventually tosses out one on the inside. The lightweights are exceedingly patient to engage, with the only strikes in a full minute three leg kicks. Zellhuber pitches a front kick up the middle that is swatted away, and Ogden use another low kick to find his range and do something at all. Ogden shoots from afar, and Zellhuber sees it coming and easily tosses him out of the way. Ogden gathers himself and uses a low kick, and he reaches out with a left hook. Zellhuber comes up short with a jab, and he is similarly inaccurate in several other strikes to differing targets. Ogden goes up high with a kick that slaps off the shoulder, and he peppers the lead leg with several kicks. Zellhuber comes out throwing hands, and Ogden is faster and intercepts him with a left hook. Zellhuber misses the chin by a matter of inches with a quick kick, and it slaps into the chest with emphasis. They both score single jabs, and Ogden stays active with leg kicks to both sides of the lead wheel of “Golden Boy.” Ogden pushes out multiple jabs, and the kicks from both fighters get blocked. Ogden chips and chops with low kicks, and the snoozer of a round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 2
The tentative second round starts just like the first ended, albeit without a glove touch, with neither man willing to engage with much of note. Ogden keeps using low kicks as his preferred weapon, and he snaps the head back with a counter hook when Zellhuber closes in on him. As Zellhuber advances again to walk through kicks, he gets poked in the eye. Dean gives him time to recover, but Zellhuber wants to keep going and pick things up. Ogden is the one fired up after the brief break, with a few quick combinations to string together. Zellhuber answers with his own short barrage of punches, but it is the leg kick he throws at its conclusion that has the greater effect. Zellhuber swings with a left hook, and Ogden times a takedown perfectly but cannot get in on the hips to ground the newcomer. Zellhuber thanks him for this attempt with a head kick, but it misses the mark by a great deal. Zellhuber sits down on a pair of punches, but they largely collide with the guard of “Samurai Ghost.” Zellhuber stretches out with a front kick to the body, but it is one and done as Ogden resets. Zellhuber pokes out a jab, and he gets his own body kicked along with three to his lead leg. Ogden swipes with a left hook, and they hand-fight in the center of the cage. Simultaneous jabs allow Zellhuber to reach first, and he chains the jab into a front kick. “Golden Boy” swings and misses, due to the level change and successful takedown landed by Ogden. Zellhuber pops back up, and Ogden takes his back standing. Ogden holds the position until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Zellhuber
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 3
Fists are bumped to start off the last round, and the fighters decide to pick up the pace a little by actually punching each other in succession. They trade straight punches before switching to kicks to the body, and one after the other they exchange blows. This slows when Zellhuber backs away and tries to use his range, but he cannot find it as his punches and kicks continually miss the mark. Ogden snipes him and closes the distance to land, only to scoot away before the counter. Zellhuber eats a left hook and tries to pay his man back, but Ogden slips it and shoots in for a double. Zellhuber stuffs it and winds up with a high kick, but it helplessly slaps off the blocking hand, a great distance from Ogden’s mug. Ogden sticks out several jabs, and Zellhuber’s pace falls to single strikes. Ogden has a shin skim off the liver, and he works the lead leg and ducks back as Zellhuber swings wildly. “Golden Boy” leaps in the air with a knee, and Ogden slides away and smacks Zellhuber with a left hand. Zellhuber walks into jabs and throws high-risk, low-reward strikes like a spinning kick, only to hit air. Ogden continues his effective jab to disrupt the brief charges of his opponent, and he sneaks a head kick up that is just blocked in time. “Samurai Ghost” punches the body and evades, and he doubles up on his effective jab to give Zellhuber fits. Zellhuber steps in with an elbow that misses where he aims it, and a second to follow is blocked. Ogden shoots for another takedown, and it is similarly stuffed. Zellhuber swings and misses with a flying knee, and a few punches and kicks from both men lead to an end in this de facto sparring match.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (29-28 Ogden)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)

The Official Result
Trey Ogden def. Daniel Zellhuber via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Angelo picks Zellhuber, impressed by his dynamic striking, length, and takedown defense. He notes that Ogden is a grappler who sometimes chooses to strike, which would be a mistake against Zellhuber. Angelo placed a moneyline bet at -230 and notes the line has moved to -270, emphasizing the value of early betting for premium members.

Moneyline bet at -230.
"i like daniel to get the win here i do have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady is confident in Daniel Zellhuber to win by decision. He praises Zellhuber as a well-rounded fighter with a significant reach advantage (5.5-6.5 inches) and superior striking. Brady criticizes Trey Ogden's performance against Jordan Levitt, where Ogden was outlanded 69-41 and failed to secure takedowns. He doubts Ogden can take down or submit the larger Zellhuber, who is a BJJ black belt. Brady predicts Zellhuber will pick Ogden apart on the feet for three rounds and win a 30-27 decision.

decision
"give me daniel zellhuber i'll say he wins by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Cody agrees, highlighting Zellhuber's altitude training, durability, and well-rounded skills. He thinks Ogden has no path to victory and that Zellhuber could finish inside the distance. He calls it a top-two ticket play.

Zellhuber inside the distance
"this feels to me top two ticket kind of play"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Daniel Levi is very high on Daniel Zellhuber, calling him one of the best prospects in a long time. He likes Zellhuber's composure, striking arsenal, and physical attributes (6'1", 77-inch reach). He notes Zellhuber's training at Tiger Muay Thai and with Eric Nicksick, and believes he will knock out Trey Ogden. He placed one unit at minus 245.

Bet one unit on Daniel Zellhuber moneyline at -245; predicts knockout
"I think he's gonna knock out trey ogden so i laid it minus 245 to win one unit"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Jacob picks Zellhuber, calling him the real deal with dynamic striking and Mexican toughness. He notes that Ogden is a wrestler who doesn't always wrestle, which is dangerous against a striker like Zellhuber. Jacob predicts a knockout, as Zellhuber's power and precision will find the mark. He worries slightly about Ogden's grappling but believes Zellhuber can handle it.

Predicts knockout finish.
"i think daniel finds that knockout shot in this matchup"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Zellhuber is the better striker and grappler, with length and speed advantages. He has been training at Xtreme Couture under Eric Nicksick, who is high on him. Ogden is a jack of all trades but not at UFC level. Zellhuber should win inside the distance; his inside distance prop at +110 is a better play than the moneyline. He is a solid parlay piece.

Zellhuber inside the distance at +110
"zellhuber should win this fight he should win it inside the distance you could get a better number on him inside the distance which is plus 110"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Paul thinks Zellhuber is a legitimate prospect with good cardio, chin, and grappling. He notes Ogden looked poor against Jordan Leavitt and that Zellhuber has been training with top guys. He expects Zellhuber to steamroll Ogden.

"daniel zellhuber should absolutely steamroll them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber by decision. He thinks Zellhuber looks special with crisp striking, while Trey Ogden is underrated but didn't beat Jordan Leavitt, which is a benchmark. He notes Ogden has been submitted before and Zellhuber is young (23) with momentum from the Contender Series. He expects a decision win because Ogden is tough and has a good chin, so a KO is unlikely.

"i'm picking him to beat trey ogden by decision win"
LOSS vs Jordan Leavitt
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 · Apr 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jordan Leavitt 0 69 of 105 65% 124 of 170 0 of 3 0% 0 0 5:17
Trey Ogden 0 41 of 90 45% 130 of 182 1 of 4 25% 2 1 2:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jordan Leavitt 0 19 of 25 76% 32 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
Trey Ogden 0 17 of 30 56% 57 of 71 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:10
2 Jordan Leavitt 0 46 of 68 67% 52 of 74 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Trey Ogden 0 16 of 46 34% 17 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
3 Jordan Leavitt 0 4 of 12 33% 40 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:57
Trey Ogden 0 8 of 14 57% 56 of 64 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jordan Leavitt 69 of 105 65% 6 of 21 11 of 25 52 of 59 69 of 102 0 of 2 0 of 1
Trey Ogden 41 of 90 45% 10 of 46 23 of 29 8 of 15 38 of 87 1 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jordan Leavitt 19 of 25 76% 0 of 1 6 of 10 13 of 14 19 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 1
Trey Ogden 17 of 30 56% 2 of 10 8 of 10 7 of 10 17 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jordan Leavitt 46 of 68 67% 3 of 11 5 of 14 38 of 43 46 of 66 0 of 2 0 of 0
Trey Ogden 16 of 46 34% 3 of 26 12 of 16 1 of 4 16 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jordan Leavitt 4 of 12 33% 3 of 9 0 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Ogden 8 of 14 57% 5 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 1 5 of 11 1 of 1 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jordan Leavitt vs. Trey Ogden

Round 1
It’s submission grappler vs. submission grappler in this lightweight contest up next, as Leavitt (9-1, 2-1 UFC) and newcomer Ogden (15-4, 0-0 UFC) combine for exactly one finish by TKO or KO while totaling 17 victories by tapout. The Octagon overseer for this one that will get interesting when it hits the ground is referee Chris Tognoni, and a sporting glove touch occurs before his eyes. Leavitt switches his stance several times, coming out awkward but not throwing anything of note. They reach at one another with long kicks, with Leavitt stretching out far for a push kick to the breadbasket. Ogden responds with a spinning back kick, and Leavitt connects with a few low kicks when he plants back down. Leavitt continues to jab with his foot, and Ogden catches him with a left hook as he lets one loose for too long. The single strikes continue to get lobbed at one another without bad intentions on them, and Leavitt goes inside with one to the knee. Ogden walks his foe down and lands a pair of punches to the body, and he nails Leavitt with a kick to the body as Leavitt’s back is against the wall. Ogden makes a dire mistake throwing a high kick, slipping to the ground, and Leavitt pounces immediately to put Ogden flat on his back. Ogden looks to keep an active guard off his back, trying to push his heels off Leavitt’s hips, but Leavitt is able to sneakily remain on top and shuck that off every time. “The Monkey King” pushes forward in the guard, stacking Ogden up and disallowing him from setting anything up. From on top, Leavitt does not do much of note offensively, with an occasional strike coming but far more of a focus on top control. Ogden snags hold of an arm-in guillotine choke, and Leavitt suddenly has to defend in a dangerous position. Ogden locks it up and rolls to mount, and Leavitt is firmly in the danger zone. Leavitt scrambles, fighting off the legs to try to loosen the grip, and he rolls Ogden back over. “Samurai Ghost” keeps the choke as tight as it can be, and Leavitt does not seem remotely concerned, riding out the round and letting the horn sound to force a release in the choke.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 2
The second round begins with both men throwing kicks, and they push towards one another. As Ogden shoots in low, he ends up getting lifted up and the crown of his head cracks straight into Leavitt’s jaw. Tognoni calls the accidental headbutt foul and lets Leavitt recover, and Leavitt appears compromised and in pain, rubbing his chin from the clash of heads. Leavitt signifies he is good to go, and he begins up with his distance-keeping front kick assault. They may be slow and sporadic, but they are effective at keeping Ogden at bay. When Ogden kicks back at him, Leavitt checks the strikes, forcing Ogden to readjust his approach. Ogden rushes forward with a few punches to the body, and Leavitt holds his guard in more of a Philly shell than a standard hand guard position. “The Monkey King” ambles forward in pursuit of a takedown, only for his attempt to get stuffed with ease. Ogden backs his foe up towards the wall with his pressure, punching his way into a possible double-leg takedown try. Leavitt remains upright without much concern, but Ogden does manage to press him into the fencing. They separate, and Leavitt kicks at Ogden’s knee a few times with a stomping side kick. Ogden plods forward, keeping Leavitt backpedaling, but Leavitt does not stop spamming low kicks. Every time Ogden backs him up to the wall, Leavitt somehow manages to clear him out with a few kicks and crafty circling. The chipping leg kicks of Leavitt do enough to keep Ogden from unloading on him, but he cannot get much else offense going. Leavitt attempts another telegraphed takedown, and Ogden pushes him down and stands back up. Leavitt throws to punches, a low kick, and he spins awkwardly with a back fist. The spinning back fist does not connect, and Leavitt shakes his head as the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden

Round 3
As soon as the third round opens, Leavitt charges for a takedown. Ogden bowls him over, pushing “The Monkey King” to his back and claiming top position in a hurry. With a quick sweep, Leavitt manages to gain enough distance to push away and stand back up, and the two resume their striking battle. Ogden punches a few times, before pushing shoulder-first into a clinch. With sheer muscle, Ogden rips Leavitt down to the ground. Leavitt does not give this up lightly, but a concerted effort from Ogden allows him to wrench Leavitt down and then turn him to his knees. Leavitt still fights his way back up from his knees, and he fights out of a clinch and stings Ogden with a right hand. Another clean right hand from Leavitt leads to a weak takedown try from Ogden, and Ogden falls over to his back when Leavitt tackles him to the mat. Leavitt lowers himself into Ogden’s guard, and Ogden closes it around him to tie his foe up. Leavitt tries to soften Ogden up a little with short punches, but he abandons punches to grab hold of a can opener by gripping both hands behind the back of Ogden’s head. This does enough to open the guard for Leavitt, but little else comes from “The Monkey King” besides some scrambling to pass guard. Ogden effectively nullifies the attack of Leavitt while punching off his back and pushing off the hips, and the ground exchange is constantly busy from a control perspective. Leavitt stays on top until the final horn calls a stop to this odd fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt (29-28 Ogden)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt (29-28 Ogden)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt (29-28 Ogden)

The Official Result
Jordan Leavitt def. Trey Ogden via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

Angelo picks Trey Ogden, but is a little worried because it's Ogden's UFC debut and Jordan Leavitt's ground game is dangerous. He notes that Ogden is more well-rounded with solid takedowns and power, while Leavitt is a one-dimensional grappler with subpar striking and wrestling. He thinks Ogden's timing and blast doubles will be key.

"i do like trey to win here though and i'm gonna pick him but this being his ufc debut and jordan's ground game do have me a little bit worried"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

Big Brady picks Trey Ogden to win by third-round submission. He notes Ogden is the better striker, wrestler, and has better cardio. He expects Ogden to take Leavitt down and eventually break him, getting a late finish. He acknowledges Leavitt's submission threat but notes Ogden is a BJJ black belt and that Leavitt slows down as fights go on.

win by submission, round 3
"i like ogden here i'm gonna take ogden to win actually by a third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

Cody picks Ogden, citing his improved striking and wrestling. He thinks Ogden can neutralize Leavitt's grappling and win a decision. He notes Leavitt's limited skillset and Ogden's camp advantage.

"i can see it being ogden ogden by decision and that's kind of where my head's at"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

Daniel Levi leans Trey Ogden contingent on him surviving the early scrambles. He notes Leavitt is a one-trick pony with good scrambling and submissions but fades if he doesn't get a quick finish. Ogden is more well-rounded, has finished a current UFC fighter (TJ Brown), and trains under James Krause. Levi sees it as 50/50 early but favors Ogden as the fight progresses.

Mentions Leavitt's early submission threat and Ogden's experience
"I'ma lean with ogden contingent on him getting past these first few scrambles."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Trey Ogden

Paul leans towards Ogden, noting his more complete game and better wrestling. He thinks Ogden can out-strike Leavitt and avoid submissions. He also bet under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish.

under 2.5 rounds (-115, then +105)
"i'll lean towards trey ogden because i do think he's a little bit more of a complete fighter"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jordan Leavitt

The MMA Guru picks Jordan Leavitt by submission, noting that three of Trey Ogden's four losses are by submission. He believes Ogden's grappling-first style plays into Leavitt's strengths, and expects a first-round submission, possibly an arm triangle or rear-naked choke.

first round submission
"jordan levitt gets this one down by submission three of the four losses of trey ogden are by way of submission"