UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor · Nov 12, 2016 · Women's Bantamweight · Completed
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Age 37
Height 5' 7"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 6"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Raquel Pennington
4.1 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.32 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
0.83 TD Avg
27.0% TD Acc.
62.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Miesha Tate
2.62 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
3.05 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
1.97 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
56.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Raquel Pennington - Fight History
LOSS vs Julianna Peña
Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 1 92 of 317 29% 112 of 345 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Raquel Pennington 0 92 of 260 35% 123 of 308 2 of 3 66% 1 0 5:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 17 of 60 28% 17 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 25 of 59 42% 25 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Julianna Peña 0 6 of 24 25% 23 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 6 of 16 37% 18 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:00
3 Julianna Peña 0 8 of 34 23% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 18 of 33 54% 35 of 53 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:20
4 Julianna Peña 1 26 of 84 30% 26 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Raquel Pennington 0 16 of 67 23% 18 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
5 Julianna Peña 0 35 of 115 30% 35 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Raquel Pennington 0 27 of 85 31% 27 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 92 of 317 29% 57 of 277 29 of 33 6 of 7 88 of 308 4 of 6 0 of 3
Raquel Pennington 92 of 260 35% 82 of 248 9 of 11 1 of 1 90 of 256 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 17 of 60 28% 12 of 53 3 of 4 2 of 3 17 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 25 of 59 42% 24 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Julianna Peña 6 of 24 25% 2 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Julianna Peña 8 of 34 23% 5 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 18 of 33 54% 14 of 28 3 of 4 1 of 1 16 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Julianna Peña 26 of 84 30% 12 of 69 12 of 13 2 of 2 25 of 80 1 of 1 0 of 3
Raquel Pennington 16 of 67 23% 14 of 65 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Julianna Peña 35 of 115 30% 26 of 105 8 of 9 1 of 1 34 of 113 1 of 2 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 27 of 85 31% 24 of 81 3 of 4 0 of 0 27 of 84 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Raquel Pennington to win by grinding against the cage, using her technical striking and control. He notes Julianna Peña is coming off a two-year layoff and a severe beating, which often leads to poor performances. He believes Pennington's durability and preparation at elevation will be key, and that Peña's chaotic style won't be enough. He also mentions that Pennington's wife Tisha Torres fights earlier, which could affect her mentally if Tisha loses.

"Rocko Pennington is the pick and I'm fairly confident that she gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington, citing her recent activity and impressive wins over Macy Chiasson, Ketlen Vieira, and Mayra Bueno Silva. He notes Peña has been inactive for two years and lost to Amanda Nunes. He believes Pennington is the better striker and has strong clinch work, and expects her to win a decision.

"I got to go Pennington here and I think Pennington is going to win this fight and win it probably probably by decision Pennington Pennington by decision more active better fighter give me Pennington"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Cody picks Pennington due to Peña's two-year layoff, age, and tendency to fatigue. He highlights Pennington's durability, volume striking, and ability to fight five rounds. He expects Pennington to pressure Peña against the cage and win a decision.

Raquel Pennington by decision
"I will take Ral Pennington"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Connor picks Pennington, but hesitantly. He thinks Pennington's crafty boxing and durability will allow her to survive Peña's initial onslaught and win rounds in the clinch. He notes that Pennington is comfortable in long clinches and can land knees and front headlock chokes. However, he acknowledges Peña's athleticism and aggression make it a tough fight.

Same odds commentary.
"I think she is going to end up in a lot of long clinches with rocky which is a position where rocky is very comfortable even against stronger women."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Raquel Pennington, citing her superior boxing and clinch work. He believes Pennington can keep the fight standing and piece up Peña, possibly even choking her out if Peña shoots a sloppy takedown. He is not confident in Peña's evolution since her loss to Amanda Nunes and thinks Pennington's takedown defense will be key.

"I do lean Pennington man if she can keep this fight standing she's gonna box this girl up even piece her up in the clinch with knees and elbows"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Vreeland picks Raquel Pennington. He cites multiple factors: Pennington trains at elevation and has amazing cardio, while Peña has not fought since July 2022 and has a history of poor preparation for elevation. Vreeland notes that Pennington's style is exhausting to fight, as seen in her win over Mayra Bueno Silva. He also points out that Pennington's boxing looked good in her last fight, while Peña's boxing looked terrible with wild swings. He believes Pennington will grind out a win, likely by decision or late TKO.

Pennington by TKO +2000
"I'm going Raquel Pennington yes sir"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Jeff Fox picks Raquel Pennington. He agrees with Vreeland on the elevation advantage and Peña's layoff. He notes that Pennington is a tough out, especially if Peña doesn't properly prepare. Fox thinks Pennington will grind out a win, though it may not be pretty.

Pennington by decision +110
"I'm in on all of that as well Raquel Pennington she's a tough out especially if you're not going to properly prepare for it"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Julianna Peña

The host thinks Peña is the overall better fighter and that her wrestling advantage will nullify Pennington's game. He believes people are overlooking Peña due to her loss to Amanda Nunes, but notes Pennington is nowhere near Nunes's level. He expects Peña to lean on her wrestling and grappling and open up a submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes.

submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes
"look for Peña to go out there lean on her wrestling lean on her grappling and open up a submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Peña's two-year layoff and Pennington's cardio advantage. He notes Pennington's recent procedure as a minor concern but believes her durability and wrestling will carry her to a decision win.

Raquel Pennington by decision
"Pennington probably Pennington by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington over Julianna Peña, citing Peña's long layoff (over two years) and inactivity. He notes Pennington trains at altitude and has a cage control game. He acknowledges Peña's win over Nunes but questions her deserving a title shot. He is not confident, calling it a tough pick, but goes with Pennington due to Peña's ring rust.

"I'm going to go Raquel Pennington you guys Juliana Pena hasn't been in she's 10 and five fighting for she's 35 years old who are you like what are you doing go away"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Zane picks Peña, arguing that Pennington is slow-footed and will get stuck on the cage, allowing Peña to impose her physicality and wrestling. He believes Peña's aggression and strength will overwhelm Pennington, despite Pennington's improved boxing and durability. Zane thinks Peña will win the belt and set up a fight with Kayla Harrison.

Peña opened at +145, currently +147. Pennington opened at -185, now -166.
"So i'm just i'm gonna take penia i'm gonna take penia to go out and be her absolute most annoying self and win this belt and give an indecipherable interview afterward."
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 134 of 201 66% 265 of 342 1 of 3 33% 2 2 11:28
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 69 of 88 78% 96 of 118 3 of 9 33% 3 0 8:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 11 of 22 50% 26 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:16
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 18 of 22 81% 27 of 31 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:20
2 Raquel Pennington 0 33 of 52 63% 47 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:04
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 20 of 30 66% 29 of 41 0 of 1 0% 1 0 2:46
3 Raquel Pennington 0 27 of 43 62% 52 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:32
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 17 of 20 85% 20 of 23 0 of 2 0% 1 0 1:35
4 Raquel Pennington 0 29 of 38 76% 75 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:17
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 7 of 8 87% 8 of 10 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:11
5 Raquel Pennington 0 34 of 46 73% 65 of 83 0 of 0 --- 2 0 4:19
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 7 of 8 87% 12 of 13 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 134 of 201 66% 91 of 156 32 of 34 11 of 11 54 of 110 38 of 43 42 of 48
Mayra Bueno Silva 69 of 88 78% 32 of 44 26 of 30 11 of 14 28 of 45 38 of 40 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 11 of 22 50% 7 of 18 4 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 18 of 22 81% 11 of 13 4 of 5 3 of 4 7 of 11 10 of 10 1 of 1
2 Raquel Pennington 33 of 52 63% 29 of 47 4 of 5 0 of 0 23 of 40 10 of 12 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 20 of 30 66% 7 of 14 10 of 11 3 of 5 7 of 16 12 of 13 1 of 1
3 Raquel Pennington 27 of 43 62% 13 of 28 12 of 13 2 of 2 9 of 23 14 of 16 4 of 4
Mayra Bueno Silva 17 of 20 85% 6 of 8 9 of 10 2 of 2 4 of 6 13 of 14 0 of 0
4 Raquel Pennington 29 of 38 76% 22 of 31 7 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 11 5 of 5 19 of 22
Mayra Bueno Silva 7 of 8 87% 3 of 3 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0
5 Raquel Pennington 34 of 46 73% 20 of 32 5 of 5 9 of 9 8 of 17 7 of 7 19 of 22
Mayra Bueno Silva 7 of 8 87% 5 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2 6 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Title Fight: Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bueno Silva (-170), Pennington (+142)

Round 1
The post-Amanda Nunes era at bantamweight truly begins, as eternal contender Pennington and the red-hot Bueno Silva meet to contest the belt vacated last year by the “Lioness,” who in a nice touch by the UFC is in attendance cageside with her family. Canada’s own Jerin Valel draws the referee assignment for this five-round title fight. Both fighters are in orthodox stance to open the fight. Bueno Silva throws a leg kick that glances, and Pennington rushes forward with a flurry of punches, backing the Brazilian up. Bueno Silva touches Pennington’s lead leg with a solid low kick. They engage again, and Pennington grabs hold of Bueno Silva and shoves her to the fence. Bueno Silva clasps her arms as Pennington throws a few short strikes. Bueno Silva breaks the clinch, and lands another hard calf kick. Pennington grabs a single-leg and tries to take Bueno Silva down, but Bueno Silva defends easily. Pennington goes for another quick single moments later, and they move to the fence. Bueno Silva takes Pennington’s back as she drags her to the canvas and quickly locks up a choke. Pennington fights the hands expertly, standing as she does so. Pennington breaks the grip to the point that she feels safe throwing elbow strikes to the thigh of Bueno Silva. Bueno Silva gives up on the choke and briefly loses back control as Pennington scrapes her against the chain-link, but hops back on her back and pulls her to a sitting position against the fence. She throws strikes from seated back control until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bueno Silva
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bueno Silva
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bueno Silva

Round 2
Pennington comes forward with a triple jab, backing Bueno Silva up and dodging the first calf kick that comes her way. Bueno Silva throws another calf kick, backing Pennington to the fence as she does so, then uses underhooks to keep her there. Pennington throws knee up the middle, then another, and switches her hooks to reverse Bueno Silva against the fence. She lets Bueno Silva off the fence and tags her with three punches as she does so. Bueno Silva comes back with a single counter, but it’s a solid one. Bueno Silva clinches and puts Pennington back on the fence. They exchange knee strikes in close quarters. Bueno Silva tags Pennington with a pair of uppercuts to the body, and Pennington comes back across the top with a big punch to the head that rocks her. They get a little space and Pennington hits her with two more good shots to the head. Bueno Silva is hurt and goes staggering back to the fence. Pennington gives chase but ends up clinching, without enough space to follow up with more big shots. They disengage and fight a running battle all the way back across the cage, where Bueno Silva takes Pennington’s back once again and tries for the rear-naked choke. Pennington calmly defends, but again she is standing with Bueno Silva in back control. Bueno Silva loses the choke moments before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington

Round 3
Pennington scores first with a long overhand right. Bueno Silva lands two good right low kicks in succession. Pennington clinches and runs Bueno Silva to the fence, where the Brazilian promptly reverses her. Bueno Silva pushes her into the chain-link, looking to move to her back, but Pennington defends well and throws a knee to the body. Pennington takes the outside position. Bueno Silva uses a whizzer kick to toss Pennington to the ground, but Pennington kicks her off and sweeps to stand. Halfway through the round it’s Pennington driving Bueno Silva into the cage. Bueno Silva throws a knee to the body then reverses Pennington into the fence. The two would-be champs spend several long moments exchanging sporadic knees on the inside. Bueno Silva grabs a front headlock and briefly threatens, but Pennington escapes and tosses her to the canvas, ending up on top in half guard with an arm around the neck. Pennington gets up and Bueno Silva stays on the ground, suddenly looking very tired. She seems to want Pennington to go back into her guard, but Pennington is having none of it and Valel waves her up. The round expires a few moments later.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington

Round 4
Pennington steps right in a smashes Bueno Silva with a right overhand. She throws another pair of punches as Bueno Silva comes forward, looking for the clinch. Pennington quickly reverses her against the cage, but elects to stay there, throwing short punches—rather than disengage as her corner is loudly imploring her to do. Bueno Silva moves to try and take Pennington’s back against the cage. Pennington defends for a moment, but Bueno Silva persists and gets the position, then slaps on another rear-naked choke. It isn’t completely under the chin, and Pennington is turning red as she fights it off. She shrugs Bueno Silva partway off her back, but Bueno Silva continues to threaten with the choke even from the side. Finally, Pennington spins all the way into Bueno Silva’s guard at the base of the fence. She throws strikes as Bueno Silva throws her legs up for a possible triangle or armbar, but none of them are enough to really threaten, and Pennington keeps pouring on the punches and hammerfists. At the 30-second mark, Pennington postures up and comes down with a big hammerfist that draws a reaction from the Brazilian. The round ends a moment later, and Bueno Silva is slow to get up.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington

Round 5
Pennington is first off the blocks with a left and right hook. Bueno Silva swings back, advancing as she does so. Pennington seems motivated to deny her the clinch, especially against the cage, but Bueno Silva manages to get her there anyway. Bueno Silva tries for some kind of body lock, but bails on it and goes for a kneebar on her way down. There’s nothing doing there, and Pennington lands on top, sliding to mount as she locks up an arm-triangle choke. Bueno Silva is surviving just fine, as Pennington is in complete control of the position but apparently can’t get enough torque to finish the choke. Pennington moves out to one side without completely surrendering the mount, and Bueno Silva is slowly turning away from her. A minute and a half to go, and Pennington gives up the choke, settling in Bueno Silva’s half guard. Pennington pours on the punches as Bueno Silva clings to her, eyes closed, just hanging on. Valel looks on and Pennington stands out of guard, throwing kicks to the legs of her supine foe. Pennington dives in with a couple of big, but glancing punches right before the final horn. Barring a historically horrible judging gaffe, “Rocky” should be your new UFC women's bantamweight champion in about two minutes here.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Pennington (49-45 Pennington)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington (49-46 Pennington)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington (49-46 Pennington)

The Official Result
Raquel Pennington def. Mayra Bueno Silva via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Pennington, citing her experience, pressure, and control style. He acknowledges Bueno Silva's power and submissions but believes Pennington's grit and high-level experience will prevail. He has a quarter unit on Pennington at plus 135 and will monitor for better value. He notes the potential distraction of Pennington's eight-month-old baby.

Quarter unit bet at +135; may add more if value improves
"I'm going to go rockel Pennington she is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Big Brady picks Silva, noting her submission skills are top-notch. He expects the fight to hit the mat at some point, where Silva will have the advantage. He thinks the striking will be close but Silva's forward pressure and durability will be key. He predicts a submission win for Silva.

submission
"give me Silva to win this fight and I guess she's going to become bantamweight champion"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Cody picks Bueno Silva but is not confident, citing her submission threat and the fact that Pennington fights in the clinch where Silva caught Holly Holm. However, he worries about Silva's cardio and the lack of her ADHD medication (ritalinic acid) in a five-round fight. He sees Pennington as a live underdog but ultimately goes with Silva.

"I got Mayra Bueno Silva but there's a whole lot of red flags... the pick's going to be Bueno Silva."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Vreeland picks Bueno Silva, analyzing her striking success against Holly Holm. He notes that Silva found the range against Holm and landed impactful strikes. He contrasts Pennington's lack of range kicks and long fighting style, which should allow Silva to close distance. Vreeland also mentions Silva's submission threat if Pennington shoots takedowns. He sees Silva overwhelming Pennington on the feet.

"I'm gonna go marro Buena Silva I think if you watch her fight with Holly Holm she was actually having some success in the Striking in finding the range of Holly Holm who's you know notoriously kind of hard to …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Daniel Vreeland picks Mayra Bueno Silva to become the new bantamweight champion. He highlights her heavy power, devastating leg kicks, and finishing instinct, including the ninja choke. He expects her calf kicks to be effective against Pennington's stationary boxing style, and believes she will land the harder shots throughout the fight, possibly finishing or winning a decision.

"I'm picking maira Shara Bueno Silva to become the new UFC bantamweight champion"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Fox picks Bueno Silva as the better fighter, but acknowledges Pennington's tendency to win. He notes Pennington's year-long layoff as a concern. Fox doesn't provide detailed technical analysis but defers to Silva's overall skill advantage.

"I'm taking Myra buo Silva as well just a better Fighter um it's hard though Pennington somehow she wins gumy she always wins so I can that could very easily happen here again but I think I'm going to take …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host only covers the main event, co-main event (Weili Zhang vs Tatiana Suarez), and other fights, but not Pennington vs Bueno Silva.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

I'm leaning on Bueno Silva to win inside the distance, likely by submission. Pennington could be the busier fighter and win rounds with volume, but Bueno Silva has a finish-heavy style that can break and frustrate Pennington. I think Bueno Silva lands a shot that opens up a clinch and sub opportunity. I'm not taking the moneyline at -155; I prefer the inside distance prop. I'd be very surprised if Pennington finishes Bueno Silva.

inside distance, submission victory
"I'm going to say Bueno Sila inside the distance that will likely end up being a bet too but I think she wins this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Paul picks Pennington, emphasizing her experience in five-round fights, superior cardio, and wrestling. He notes Bueno Silva's submission threat but believes Pennington can avoid submissions and take over in later rounds. He also jokes about Silva missing her ADHD medication affecting her focus.

"I'm going to enact the CF dot model for this one... it's Pennington for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

The MMA Guru picks Mayra Bueno Silva, citing her higher finishing potential and submission ability. He notes her win over Holly Holm (though overturned) and her competitive fight with Manon Fiorot. He believes she will submit Pennington with a knee bar in round two.

submission via knee bar, round 2
"I'm going with Maya Bueno Silva over Raquel Pennington I think her finishing potential is just way higher than Raquel Pennington"
WIN vs Ketlen Vieira
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 64 of 152 42% 138 of 230 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:45
Ketlen Vieira 0 81 of 159 50% 104 of 184 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 23 of 71 32% 29 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Ketlen Vieira 0 27 of 58 46% 27 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Raquel Pennington 0 21 of 51 41% 42 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Ketlen Vieira 0 29 of 61 47% 32 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
3 Raquel Pennington 0 20 of 30 66% 67 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:04
Ketlen Vieira 0 25 of 40 62% 45 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 64 of 152 42% 41 of 122 5 of 10 18 of 20 56 of 143 8 of 9 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 81 of 159 50% 37 of 111 32 of 35 12 of 13 59 of 134 22 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 23 of 71 32% 15 of 58 3 of 7 5 of 6 21 of 69 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 27 of 58 46% 14 of 44 9 of 9 4 of 5 24 of 54 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 21 of 51 41% 10 of 39 2 of 3 9 of 9 19 of 48 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 29 of 61 47% 14 of 43 11 of 14 4 of 4 21 of 51 8 of 10 0 of 0
3 Raquel Pennington 20 of 30 66% 16 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 5 16 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 25 of 40 62% 9 of 24 12 of 12 4 of 4 14 of 29 11 of 11 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raquel Pennington vs. Ketlen Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-115), Pennington (-105)

Round 1
In terms of pure rankings, no fight on the billing is more relevant than this fight that is not on the marquee. This women’s bantamweight pairing, one pitting the second-ranked Vieira (13-2, 7-2 UFC) against the no. 5 Pennington (14-8, 11-5 UFC), could have immediate title implications depending on how it plays out. One woman will take her first defeat in quite some time, and referee Chris Tognoni will be the first to know who that is. The ladies sportingly clap hands ahead of their important fight, and they are jittery and not ready to engage. At the 20-second mark, Pennington leaps forward with a superwoman punch, and Vieira backs her off with a solid right hand in response. Vieira walks through a low kick on the inside and a jab to the body so that she can swing a swatting left hook, but this misses the mark. The Brazilian whiffs on a big right as well, prompting Pennington to charge in with a stream of jabs. Vieira parries two looping strikes to catch “Rocky” with a short right hand on the way in. Pennington appears no worse for wear as she goes for another kick on the inside of the knee, and she ducks back when a big left hook whizzes past her face. Vieira grabs a charging Pennington to knee her right in the chest, and she sends her backpedaling with a clean right hand across the bow. Pennington slams her shin on the low calf of her opponent, and she fakes a second to draw an exaggerated reaction out of the Brazilian. Vieira snipes with a left hand to open a cut on the top of Pennington’s forehead, and she chains together a combination of punches and a low kick to keep Pennington guessing. Vieira absorbs a kick to the ribs as she closes the distance, and she reaches her foe with a left hook in a short salvo. Vieira paws out a trio of low kicks before lunging with a straight punch to the body, and Pennington answers with a similar punch before swinging a left hand at her. Vieira lands at the end of her left hook, and another superwoman punch from Pennington allows her to close the distance and tie the Brazilian up to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 2
The bantamweight contenders touch hands before re-engaging, and engage they do almost immediately, when Pennington coming out firing. Vieira answers with a counter left hook, as she measures this strike to draw ever closer to the mark. Vieira takes one on the chin to throw back two, and she has a handful of punches ricochet off the guard. Pennington connects with a heavy one-two, and Vieira blinks it out but cannot keep an advancing Pennington off of her. “Rocky” grabs hold of Vieira from behind, where she considers elevating the Brazilian to drop her on the mat, or otherwise force Vieira to carry her body weight. Vieira gets warned for bragging the fence, and she turns back around in the clinch and belts Pennington in the face with a stern elbow. Vieira opens up with a one-two, and she starts slugging it out with her opponent and gets marked up as well. The right side of Pennington’s face is growingly covered in blood, while Vieira’s mouth is also turning a brilliant shade of scarlet. Vieira spins Pennington around, and a knee from the former title challenger slams square into Vieira’s groin. Tognoni recognizes the foul as Vieira appears in clear pain, and the action is paused for about 45 seconds until they get back to it. Pennington starts off the initial aggressor, slinging a high kick and a few lancing punches while Vieira throws back in volume. Vieira gets off with a right hand, and Pennington replies in kind to snap the head back. Pennington nails her with another right over the top before latching on to the clinch and clubbing the body with a pair of knees. Pennington checks the clock when pinned to the fence – it reads about 58 seconds – and she tries with all her might to break off. When she cannot get out of the clinch, she settles for knee after unanswered knee to the chest and midsection. Vieira is sticking to her tightly without striking back, and Pennington remains the busier of the two with body shots. Vieira slithers around to the back with seconds to spare, and there is nothing to be had before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Pennington

Round 3
The ladies double touch hands, hug and then bump fists again to start the last round. They immediately go for broke, with Pennington not wasting any time engaging and throwing hands. Pennington cracks Vieira with a superwoman punch, and Vieira answers with several speedy punches in response. The two close the distance and end up tied up, with Vieira pushing the former title challenger against the wall. Pennington grinds her elbow on the chin as Vieira stays close enough to not take many knees as she did the end of the last round. When Pennington sets up a Thai plum, Vieira disengages. Vieira resets and dings Pennington with a right hand, stringing together a few strikes before Pennington closes in to grab hold of her. They trade short single punches up close, and both try to attempt a throw or toss to change position. When neither succeed, Vieira spins her around in the tie-up, and Pennington looks for a Thai clinch again. This time, Pennington is able to score a knee before they separate, and Vieira leaps forward suddenly with a crushing elbow. Pennington takes it cleanly and tries to escape, so Vieira follows her and nails her with another before snagging here again up close. Vieira targets elbows, and Pennington rips the body with a knee. When in the clinch, Vieira slips around to nearly take the back, and she knees the thigh while Pennington punches her from over her own shoulder. Vieira looks to elevate Pennington, but she cannot throw her as Pennington’s base is too solid. Vieira stays clung to her adversary right to the bitter end, and the judges have their hands full with this one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)

The Official Result
Raquel Pennington def. Ketlen Vieira via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Angelo picks Vieira, citing her size, power, and Judo. He thinks she will be busier in the clinch and work off the cage, making Pennington look boring. He acknowledges Pennington's toughness but believes Vieira's recent win over Holly Holm and physical advantages will secure a decision. He is willing to bet on her.

"I like Caitlin to win this fight I think minus 117 I actually think that's good money on her"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Big Brady picks Ketlen Vieira but is not confident, calling it his least favorite fight on the card. He sees Vieira having a grappling advantage if she gets on top, but notes she often does nothing with control time, as seen in fights against Yana Kunitskaya and Holly Holm. He also acknowledges Pennington's clinch work and ability to push Vieira against the cage. He predicts a close, ugly decision that judges might get wrong, and he will not bet on the fight.

Not betting on this fight; Vieira by decision
"I'm gonna stick with with Vera though I don't love it I will not be betting on this fight but I will pick Viera to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Cody leans slightly towards Pennington, noting her striking output against Aspen Ladd and potential bulldog choke. He sees it as a close fight and prefers to bet it live after seeing who is stronger in the clinch.

"I'll lean ever so slightly to Rocky Pennington... but uh no way I'm getting money invested in it early"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Connor picks Vieira because she is physically stronger and more powerful, and has a wrestling advantage that can neutralize Pennington's boxing. He notes that Pennington often gets taken down at least once per fight, and Vieira's clinch work and top control can sway judges. Connor also mentions that Vieira showed renewed confidence against Holly Holm, throwing off her back foot and in clinches.

Odds: Vieira opened -145, jumped to -105, currently -123. Pennington opened +125, jumped to -112, currently +101. Connor expects a split decision either way.
"I'm going to pick her here. ... Vieira is more she's more powerful. She's she's the bigger hitter and at least the little bit of confidence renewed confidence. She showed against home to at least throw off her back foot …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Connor also picks Vieira, agreeing that she has improved and has more options. He notes that Pennington has power and patience, which could create opportunities, but Vieira's grappling and overall game should prevail. Connor mentions that Pennington has made herself interesting but Vieira is the better fighter.

"I'm gonna take you banks as well but uh yeah I you know it I would I will be interested to see if if cash aware I can win a fight like this"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Jacob picks Pennington, calling Vieira overrated and Pennington underrated. He argues Pennington's recent wins are more impressive and she is the better overall fighter. He notes Vieira's split decision losses and that Pennington's clinch control and striking looked sharp. He is confident enough to bet $100 against Angelo.

Bet $100 with Angelo
"I'll pick Rocky in this fight I think she's the better fighter"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Paul leans towards Vieira, citing her size and recent five-round experience. He expects a clinch-heavy fight and thinks Vieira may get the better of it, but admits he has low confidence and sees it as a pass or live-bet situation.

"the official pick will be Kellen Vieira but it's like you know there's Fighters that you can trust... I couldn't tell you"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Zane picks Pennington because she has steadily improved her boxing and showed excellent counter-punching against Aspen Ladd. He notes that Pennington is a solid defensive wrestler who doesn't give up much even when taken down, and that she makes good decisions as the fight goes on. Zane also points out that Vieira's striking has become overly cautious since her knockout loss, relying on clinch work rather than developing her forward striking.

Odds: Vieira opened -145, jumped to -105, currently -123. Pennington opened +125, jumped to -112, currently +101. Zane expects a close fight and thinks Pennington's technical acumen could earn her a decision.
"I'm going to take Pennington though. ... Pennington is just she is a very solid defensive wrestling grappler even when she gets surprised by somebody's strength or you know gets put in a bad position. She doesn't give a lot …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Zane picks Vieira, noting that she has shown improvements in tactical depth and technique over her last few fights. He believes she has too many options and has gotten better at connecting phases of her game, defense, and counterpunching. However, he worries about her last fight against Melissa Gatto where she couldn't finish and got reversed. He still thinks she should be a lock to win.

Odds mentioned: Vieira opened at -160, currently -248; Pennington opened at +140, currently +200.
"I'm gonna take you banks as well but uh yeah I you know it I would I will be interested to see if if cash aware I can win a fight like this"
WIN vs Aspen Ladd
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 65 of 160 40% 102 of 199 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:56
Aspen Ladd 0 114 of 195 58% 136 of 218 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 20 of 60 33% 25 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Aspen Ladd 0 40 of 74 54% 40 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Raquel Pennington 0 26 of 68 38% 28 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aspen Ladd 0 49 of 82 59% 52 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
3 Raquel Pennington 0 19 of 32 59% 49 of 64 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:56
Aspen Ladd 0 25 of 39 64% 44 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 65 of 160 40% 37 of 118 21 of 34 7 of 8 52 of 145 13 of 15 0 of 0
Aspen Ladd 114 of 195 58% 57 of 133 47 of 52 10 of 10 89 of 166 25 of 29 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 20 of 60 33% 13 of 48 6 of 11 1 of 1 20 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aspen Ladd 40 of 74 54% 24 of 56 12 of 14 4 of 4 36 of 70 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 26 of 68 38% 19 of 53 2 of 10 5 of 5 23 of 63 3 of 5 0 of 0
Aspen Ladd 49 of 82 59% 29 of 60 20 of 22 0 of 0 42 of 74 7 of 8 0 of 0
3 Raquel Pennington 19 of 32 59% 5 of 17 13 of 13 1 of 2 9 of 22 10 of 10 0 of 0
Aspen Ladd 25 of 39 64% 4 of 17 15 of 16 6 of 6 11 of 22 14 of 17 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Aspen Ladd

Angelo picks Aspen Ladd, citing her toughness and 'dog' mentality. He thinks Pennington's style of cage pressure and control won't work against Ladd's refusal to be bullied. He notes Ladd's power and wrestling, and says this is a no-bet situation.

No bet situation.
"i think i like aspen ladd here i think i like aspen ladd honestly the dog in her not accepting the bully the positions from raquel pennington i think aspen lad gets this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington to win by decision. He notes Pennington has solid takedown defense and should keep the fight on the feet, where she can outstrike Ladd. Ladd looked terrible in her last fight against Norma Dumont, landing only 3 strikes in the first round. Brady thinks Ladd's path to victory is takedowns, but Pennington is strong and physical enough to stuff them.

"give me rocky pennington to win and give me her to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Aspen Ladd

Cody also leans Ladd, but emphasizes the weight cut risk. He notes Pennington's recent wins are over low-level opponents and that she has been taken down by her last three foes. Cody thinks Ladd's top game will be decisive if she makes weight. He plans to watch weigh-ins before betting, and is interested in the under if Ladd looks drained.

under 2.5 rounds +240
"the value side would be aspen lad for me but more interested in uh watching the weigh-ins"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Levi sees Raquel Pennington as the more well-rounded fighter with takedowns and a grinding style. He worries about Aspen Ladd's top pressure and ground-and-pound, but thinks Pennington's takedown defense and experience against top competition (including Amanda Nunes) will allow her to mix strikes and takedowns. He expects a decision win for Pennington, though he is not rushing to bet at -190.

"the more well-rounded fighter here no questions asked is rocky pennington"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Aspen Ladd

I think we'll see a better version of Aspen Ladd than last time. She should be able to push Pennington against the cage, drag her to the floor, and have success with ground and pound. Pennington struggles when fights hit the mat. Ladd will grind out a decision victory.

"I think we're going to see a better version of Aspen Ladd than we did last time... I think we see Ladd grind her out and eventually get a decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Aspen Ladd

Paul leans towards Ladd as an underdog but conditions it on her making weight. He notes Pennington's takedown defense is weak and that Ladd has ferocious ground and pound. Paul thinks if Ladd gets top position, she'll smash Pennington. He also considers the under 2.5 rounds if Ladd looks bad at weigh-ins. He calls Ladd his first underdog pick of the card.

under 2.5 rounds +240
"this is gonna be my first underdog pick of the card aspen lad yeah she's my baby"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington, criticizing Aspen Ladd's lack of grit and poor performance in her last fight. He expects Pennington to push the pace and win a 30-27 decision, noting that Ladd has changed her style since being KO'd and no longer leads the dance.

"i am going to be going with raquel pennington here getting the job done over aspen lad"
WIN vs Macy Chiasson
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 3:07 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 45 of 79 56% 61 of 95 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:09
Macy Chiasson 0 26 of 86 30% 64 of 126 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 24 of 38 63% 37 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Macy Chiasson 0 15 of 48 31% 48 of 83 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
2 Raquel Pennington 0 21 of 41 51% 24 of 44 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:38
Macy Chiasson 0 11 of 38 28% 16 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 45 of 79 56% 22 of 48 20 of 28 3 of 3 38 of 71 7 of 8 0 of 0
Macy Chiasson 26 of 86 30% 16 of 65 9 of 18 1 of 3 22 of 79 3 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 24 of 38 63% 10 of 21 11 of 14 3 of 3 21 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0
Macy Chiasson 15 of 48 31% 11 of 39 4 of 9 0 of 0 13 of 45 1 of 2 1 of 1
2 Raquel Pennington 21 of 41 51% 12 of 27 9 of 14 0 of 0 17 of 36 4 of 5 0 of 0
Macy Chiasson 11 of 38 28% 5 of 26 5 of 9 1 of 3 9 of 34 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Raquel Pennington but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes that Pennington is a grinder who uses cage control and pressure, but that Macy Chiasson uses her reach well and has good Muay Thai. He believes the small cage at the Apex may limit Chiasson's ability to circle, but still sees Chiasson as a live underdog. Angelo expects a boring win for Pennington but not a cakewalk.

"i think raquel is able to crowd pressure and work her way to a pretty boring win but this is not a cakewalk"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

Big Brady initially liked Pennington but changed his pick after learning the fight is at 145 lbs, which he believes massively favors Chiasson. He notes Chiasson's size, youth, and experience at featherweight, and expects her to use her height and reach to win a close decision. He mentions Pennington's takedown ability but thinks the weight class change is decisive.

decision
"I'm going to say macy chazon comes out here uses her height her reach her size and wins a very close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

Cody likes Chiasson as a dog, noting the fight is at 145 lbs which favors her. He points out that Pennington has looked disinterested since her title fight and has poor striking. Chiasson is bigger, stronger, and has better striking at range and in the clinch. Cody thinks Chiasson can win by outworking Pennington.

"I think this is a dog selection here I think I think macy chase on is live in the spot and she could get the job done so I'll uh I'll take missy jason"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Raquel Pennington. He praises Pennington's grit, durability, and experience, noting she only loses to former champions. However, he points out that many of Pennington's wins are split decisions, making it a close fight. Levi is concerned about Chiasson's size and reach advantage at 145, and wonders if Pennington's clinch game will be less effective against a taller opponent. He thinks Chiasson could win if she has improved, but ultimately picks Pennington to edge out a decision.

Pennington by split decision; fight goes to decision
"I do lean Pennington but I mean if someone wants to take a shot on Chiasson and hope for that split decision I can't sit here talk you off of it."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

Jacob picks Macy Chiasson, believing the UFC is setting her up to be a contender. He thinks the fight comes down to clinch work, and that Chiasson is bigger, more physical, and nastier than Pennington at this point. He expects Chiasson to win a dirty decision, possibly with a finish. Jacob notes that Chiasson has never been finished and has finishing ability herself.

"i think she's a little even more nastier than raquel at this point in her career i think she's hungry i think she knows she's close to getting those big big fights"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The host picks Pennington by decision, citing her well-rounded game and experience. He notes that Chiasson relies on being physical and bullying, but if she can't do that, she succumbs. He expects Pennington to pull away in the later rounds and win a 15-minute fight. He likes the decision prop at +115.

Pennington by decision (+115)
"I'm liking uh penguin by decision at plus 115. i do think she'll grand alchemists on over over 15 minutes here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

Paul agrees with Chiasson, citing the reach advantage and the weight class change. He notes Pennington isn't big for 135, let alone 145, and Chiasson doesn't have to cut much weight. Paul thinks it's a 'dogger pass' and leans Chiasson.

"I'm with you as well I think like five and a half inch reach rocky isn't exactly too big for 135 pounds let alone 145 pounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington over Macy Chiasson, citing Pennington's physical strength and ability to bully Chiasson against the cage. He notes Pennington has good wins over Pannie Kianzad, Marion Reneau, and Irene Aldana. He was not impressed by Chiasson's performance against Reneau. He thinks Pennington is too strong and will control the fight.

"i'm going to go over raquel pennington here over mesa chasson"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 50 of 98 51% 85 of 144 1 of 2 50% 0 0 5:34
Pannie Kianzad 0 48 of 79 60% 98 of 144 1 of 3 33% 0 0 6:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 12 of 19 63% 21 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:24
Pannie Kianzad 0 8 of 12 66% 25 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:20
2 Raquel Pennington 0 10 of 17 58% 21 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:55
Pannie Kianzad 0 12 of 18 66% 34 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:37
3 Raquel Pennington 0 28 of 62 45% 43 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:15
Pannie Kianzad 0 28 of 49 57% 39 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 50 of 98 51% 26 of 68 20 of 25 4 of 5 13 of 50 37 of 48 0 of 0
Pannie Kianzad 48 of 79 60% 26 of 56 17 of 18 5 of 5 23 of 49 23 of 28 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 12 of 19 63% 3 of 7 8 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 3 12 of 16 0 of 0
Pannie Kianzad 8 of 12 66% 3 of 7 5 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 5 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 10 of 17 58% 7 of 14 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 10 6 of 7 0 of 0
Pannie Kianzad 12 of 18 66% 7 of 13 4 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 11 3 of 5 2 of 2
3 Raquel Pennington 28 of 62 45% 16 of 47 9 of 11 3 of 4 9 of 37 19 of 25 0 of 0
Pannie Kianzad 28 of 49 57% 16 of 36 8 of 9 4 of 4 15 of 33 13 of 16 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Raquel Pennington because she will march forward, hold Pannie against the cage, and neutralize her boxing. He notes that Pennington's losses are to current/former champions and that she is a boring but effective grappler. He likes the -132 odds and thinks they will move. He is confident Pennington stifles Pannie's combinations.

Less on Pannie Kianzad's strike line (115.5)
"raquel pennington is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington, citing her superior level of competition and ability to grind against the cage. He notes Kianzad was outstruck by Alexis Davis and has shown vulnerability to wrestling. He predicts a decision win for Pennington, though he wishes the price were better and likely won't bet it.

"i'm going to take pennington to win um don't love the price to be honest"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Pannie Kianzad

Cody picks Kianzad as a slight underdog, citing her better striking and improved takedown defense. He notes that Pennington is a grinder but has looked mentally off in recent fights. Cody believes Kianzad can keep the fight at range and outwork Pennington.

"i would classify this one as a dog or pass situation and again you do have chianzan as that plus 110 underdogs so gonna go ahead"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Levi leans with Raquel Pennington. He calls Kianzad an overachiever and thinks Pennington's record is misleading because she has fought the best. He sees similar boxing-centric styles but gives the edge to Pennington, expecting a close decision. He notes he usually likes to dog close decisions but here he leans with Pennington.

"i'm gonna go with rocky pennington here maybe a close decision and oftentimes on close decisions i like to dog but on this one i'm leaning with rocky pennington to to win the decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Preet picks Pennington because she is good at everything and has better cardio and forward pressure. He thinks Kianzad is a better technical striker but Pennington will nullify her with clinch work and takedowns. He expects a decision and likes the fight goes to decision at +125.

Fight goes to decision +125
"I like Pennington in this fight I'm kind of you know I'm kind of surprised how much I like her here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Pannie Kianzad

Paul agrees with taking Kianzad at plus money, noting that Pennington's style could lead to a close decision. He thinks Kianzad's volume and range striking give her an edge, but acknowledges the smaller cage may favor Pennington's grinding.

"if it's gonna be that close you take the plus money i guess in those spots so i'll i'll follow you along on that one panty cans at plus 110"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Pannie Kianzad

The MMA Guru picks Pannie Kianzad over Raquel Pennington, praising Kianzad's fundamentals, dirty boxing, and recent form. He questions Pennington's motivation and activity, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision for Kianzad.

"i'm going to go with pani kian's ad here"
WIN vs Marion Reneau
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 107 of 154 69% 118 of 165 1 of 2 50% 0 1 5:29
Marion Reneau 0 46 of 117 39% 81 of 154 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 23 of 36 63% 25 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:24
Marion Reneau 0 17 of 52 32% 24 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
2 Raquel Pennington 0 37 of 50 74% 41 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:15
Marion Reneau 0 13 of 29 44% 35 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:38
3 Raquel Pennington 0 47 of 68 69% 52 of 73 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:50
Marion Reneau 0 16 of 36 44% 22 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 107 of 154 69% 54 of 97 46 of 50 7 of 7 51 of 93 52 of 56 4 of 5
Marion Reneau 46 of 117 39% 20 of 85 20 of 25 6 of 7 22 of 84 24 of 33 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 23 of 36 63% 9 of 22 12 of 12 2 of 2 11 of 23 12 of 13 0 of 0
Marion Reneau 17 of 52 32% 8 of 39 6 of 9 3 of 4 7 of 37 10 of 15 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 37 of 50 74% 15 of 27 20 of 21 2 of 2 14 of 24 19 of 21 4 of 5
Marion Reneau 13 of 29 44% 5 of 21 6 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 15 10 of 14 0 of 0
3 Raquel Pennington 47 of 68 69% 30 of 48 14 of 17 3 of 3 26 of 46 21 of 22 0 of 0
Marion Reneau 16 of 36 44% 7 of 25 8 of 10 1 of 1 12 of 32 4 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington by decision, believing she is the better striker and that the fight will stay on the feet. He notes Pennington's superior competition and Reneau's age (42). He thinks Reneau's only path to victory is a submission, which he doesn't see happening. He is pretty confident and thinks the line could be wider.

odds: Pennington minus 150, Reneau plus 125; pick by decision
"I like Pennington here I like her to win I think she's more you know the better fighter on the feet"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Marion Reneau

Daniel Levi picks Marion Reneau as an underdog, arguing that the line should be closer to a pick 'em. He notes that Raquel Pennington is average and doesn't land many takedowns, while Reneau has decent hands and can win a close decision. Levi believes Reneau has a chance to win a split decision, especially on her 43rd birthday.

"I'm actually going to go on the opposite end and take a Marion Reneau to get it done on her 43rd birthday."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Pennington is boring but has experience against better opponents. Reneau is 42 years old and coming off a loss to Jessica Eye, which indicates she is past her prime. Pennington will get the job done, though it may be a dull fight.

"Raquel Pennington is gonna beat Marion Reneau Marion Reneau is 42 years of age she's at losses she lost a Jessica aya which now tells me that she is absolute [ __ ] dog shits"
LOSS vs Holly Holm
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 30 of 62 48% 81 of 129 0 of 3 0% 0 0 7:16
Raquel Pennington 0 38 of 78 48% 55 of 95 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 6 of 12 50% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:48
Raquel Pennington 0 5 of 14 35% 7 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
2 Holly Holm 0 9 of 17 52% 32 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:07
Raquel Pennington 0 19 of 27 70% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Holly Holm 0 15 of 33 45% 23 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:21
Raquel Pennington 0 14 of 37 37% 20 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 30 of 62 48% 12 of 33 9 of 18 9 of 11 20 of 50 10 of 12 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 38 of 78 48% 9 of 43 27 of 30 2 of 5 10 of 46 28 of 32 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 6 of 12 50% 2 of 5 2 of 3 2 of 4 3 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 5 of 14 35% 1 of 8 3 of 3 1 of 3 2 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 9 of 17 52% 2 of 8 5 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 9 6 of 8 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 19 of 27 70% 3 of 10 15 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 9 17 of 18 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 15 of 33 45% 8 of 20 2 of 8 5 of 5 14 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 14 of 37 37% 5 of 25 9 of 11 0 of 1 6 of 26 8 of 11 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel picks Raquel Pennington to edge out a close decision. He notes that Pennington is the more active fighter moving forward and that Holm has gone 4-5 since their first fight while Pennington is 5-2. He also mentions that Pennington is younger at 31 vs Holm pushing 40.

"I will take Raquel to edge out a very close decision this time just by being the more active fighter that's moving forward the entire time."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host is confident in Holly Holm, having already placed 2.5 units at -122. He believes Holm won the first fight easily and that her counter-striking, fight IQ, and power left head kick will be too much for Pennington. He argues that Holm is better at getting off the cage and landing damaging shots, while Pennington's forward movement plays into Holm's game. He dismisses concerns about Holm's recent record, noting she lost to elite fighters, and sees Pennington as a step below.

2.5 units at -122; might sprinkle another unit if line improves.
"I have 2.5 units on Holly Holm"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2020 (12 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The host picks Raquel Pennington, citing her thickness and ability to take damage, as seen in her performance against Amanda Nunes. He criticizes Holly Holm's damage-taking ability and age (38), suggesting her prime is over. He predicts Pennington wins by decision.

decision
"Raquel Pennington is gonna get a job done here I'll be honest with you guys I like her damage taking ability I don't like Holly Holm's damage taking ability whatsoever"
Miesha Tate - Fight History
LOSS vs Yana Santos
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yana Santos 0 66 of 117 56% 87 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:46
Miesha Tate 0 40 of 115 34% 108 of 204 1 of 7 14% 0 0 5:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yana Santos 0 31 of 61 50% 43 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Miesha Tate 0 22 of 55 40% 33 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:47
2 Yana Santos 0 31 of 44 70% 39 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Miesha Tate 0 13 of 43 30% 18 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
3 Yana Santos 0 4 of 12 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 5 of 17 29% 57 of 84 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yana Santos 66 of 117 56% 37 of 87 15 of 16 14 of 14 47 of 96 19 of 21 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 40 of 115 34% 25 of 88 8 of 17 7 of 10 29 of 100 8 of 10 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yana Santos 31 of 61 50% 14 of 44 9 of 9 8 of 8 19 of 47 12 of 14 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 22 of 55 40% 14 of 43 4 of 7 4 of 5 20 of 52 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Yana Santos 31 of 44 70% 20 of 33 6 of 6 5 of 5 24 of 37 7 of 7 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 13 of 43 30% 6 of 28 4 of 10 3 of 5 7 of 36 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Yana Santos 4 of 12 33% 3 of 10 0 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 5 of 17 29% 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Yana Santos

Angelo picks Yana Santos as the underdog, citing her superior striking and footwork. He believes Miesha Tate is one-dimensional and will struggle to get takedowns. He notes that Santos looked good in her last fight and that Tate has not evolved enough to compete. He also mentions a possible spread bet if available.

Interested in +3.5 spread if available
"Jana's the pick. The sport just passes some people by."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Big Brady picks Miesha Tate, citing a clear path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He notes that Yana Santos has poor takedown defense (42%) and looks bad on bottom, as seen against Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira. Despite Tate's age (38) and inconsistency, her ground game is strong with submissions and ground and pound. He predicts Tate will finish by second-round submission.

Round 2 submission
"I'm going to go Miesa Tate to win this fight. I'll take her to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Tate should take advantage of Santos's grappling shortcomings. She will mix up takedowns, get top control, and grind out a decision win.

"I believe we're going to see a great performance from Tate here as she should be able to take advantage of some of the grappling shortcomings in Santos's game."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate, stating that Yana Santos has shown an inability to do anything on the ground. He believes Tate's wrestling and experience will be enough to outwrestle Santos. He criticizes the state of women's bantamweight but expects Tate to get the win.

"I'm going to go with Misha Tate. She's a favorite as well. So actually it's not that crazy."
WIN vs Julia Avila
Submission (face crank) R3 1:15 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miesha Tate 0 32 of 37 86% 127 of 152 4 of 5 80% 1 0 10:55
Julia Avila 0 3 of 11 27% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miesha Tate 0 16 of 18 88% 50 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:54
Julia Avila 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Miesha Tate 0 16 of 18 88% 69 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:50
Julia Avila 0 2 of 7 28% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Miesha Tate 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 9 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:11
Julia Avila 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miesha Tate 32 of 37 86% 31 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 0 27 of 29
Julia Avila 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miesha Tate 16 of 18 88% 16 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 14
Julia Avila 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Miesha Tate 16 of 18 88% 15 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 15
Julia Avila 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Miesha Tate 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julia Avila 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Cody takes Tate as an underdog. He argues that Tate has fought much higher competition and even in losses she's competitive. He notes Avila's wins are over low-level opponents and she has poor takedown defense. He thinks Tate's experience and wrestling will be the difference, and that Avila's layoff and knee injury are concerns. He believes Tate's back class carries her.

"I will take that plus money on Misha Tate and think the back class carries are through here to get it done one last time"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Lucrative James leans towards Miesha Tate, citing intangibles such as Julia Avila's layoff after having a baby (possibly via C-section) and her previous gym issues. He believes Tate's grappling can neutralize Avila's striking, and that Avila's path to victory is on the feet. He suggests attacking props like Tate by decision rather than the moneyline.

Tate by decision
"I think Misha Tate has got some of the narrative and some of the intangibles going on on this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Tate is a former champion with a strong wrestling base, and she should be able to take Avila down and grind out a win. Avila is aggressive but lacks technical striking and has shown takedown defense issues. Both fighters are returning from long layoffs, but Tate's wrestling advantage and underdog odds make her a good value pick. The fight is expected to get easier for Tate in rounds two and three.

plus 125 underdog
"I think that she's a damn good Underdog spot on this card for two fighters that haven't really been active uh as of late"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Julia Avila

Paul sides with Avila, citing her strength and striking. He thinks Tate's motivation is questionable and that this could be a retirement fight. He notes Avila is the better striker and stronger, but acknowledges Tate's higher level of competition. He has a creeping suspicion that both fighters might retire after this.

"I'm going to side with Avala here I I have a creeping suspicion that this could be like if Avala wins both Fighters get the uh get the microphone at the end and there's some gloves down in the cage …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate as an underdog, noting her competitive fights against top competition like Ketlen Vieira and Lauren Murphy. He believes Julia Avila's inactivity and unimpressive last performance make Tate a live dog. He expects Tate to win by decision.

underdog, decision win
"I'm taking the underdog of Miesha Tate... she went to a pretty close fight with Ketlen Vieira... I'm going to go Miesha Tate as an underdog... win by decision."
LOSS vs Lauren Murphy
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 102 of 184 55% 128 of 211 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:18
Miesha Tate 0 85 of 164 51% 121 of 201 0 of 7 0% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 26 of 48 54% 35 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
Miesha Tate 0 25 of 47 53% 38 of 60 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:04
2 Lauren Murphy 0 38 of 66 57% 53 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:41
Miesha Tate 0 32 of 55 58% 46 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
3 Lauren Murphy 0 38 of 70 54% 40 of 72 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:05
Miesha Tate 0 28 of 62 45% 37 of 72 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 102 of 184 55% 77 of 154 24 of 29 1 of 1 68 of 142 31 of 39 3 of 3
Miesha Tate 85 of 164 51% 61 of 122 18 of 34 6 of 8 67 of 138 18 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 26 of 48 54% 17 of 37 9 of 11 0 of 0 15 of 33 11 of 15 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 25 of 47 53% 12 of 26 10 of 18 3 of 3 16 of 34 9 of 13 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 38 of 66 57% 31 of 57 6 of 8 1 of 1 26 of 52 9 of 11 3 of 3
Miesha Tate 32 of 55 58% 27 of 44 4 of 9 1 of 2 25 of 46 7 of 9 0 of 0
3 Lauren Murphy 38 of 70 54% 29 of 60 9 of 10 0 of 0 27 of 57 11 of 13 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 28 of 62 45% 22 of 52 4 of 7 2 of 3 26 of 58 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Angelo picks Miesha Tate but is hesitant due to her flyweight debut. He believes Tate's wrestling and grappling will be key, and that she can avoid being bullied by Murphy. He notes Murphy's losses came via grappling dominance, and assumes Tate will be strong at 125. He is unsure about betting.

unsure about betting
"so i'm gonna go with misha tate here anybody complaining that she's a little old she's 35 she's a younger fighter in this matchup so misha tate one big brother and i think she's gonna win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by decision. He notes that Tate is the more skilled fighter overall and can get takedowns to control the fight on the mat. He is not impressed by Murphy's wins and thinks the striking will be competitive. He says he would not bet Tate at -220 odds but picks her to win.

decision win; odds comment: minus 220 too high
"i'll take misha tate but minus 220. there's no way i would touch that but gimishita misha tate bye decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Cody picks Tate, citing her wrestling advantage, strength, and experience. He notes that Tate has been preparing for this fight for a long time and has been in great shape. He believes Tate's clinch work and takedowns will be too much for Murphy, and that Murphy's only path is to bully Tate, which he doubts she can do.

"i gotta go with cupcake tate i know that you haven't eight minus one five"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Daniel Levi leans Miesha Tate but expresses disinterest in the fight. He notes Tate is past her prime and coming off a loss, while Murphy is coming off a title fight loss and has health issues. He considers it a dog-or-pass situation and won't lay the -220 price on Tate.

dog-or-pass; not laying the chalk
"i'll say it's dog or pass at the betting window you know with a price like that i'll lean misha tate"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Paul leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing the uncertainty of Tate's weight cut to 125 and the fact that Murphy is a natural 125er. He notes that Murphy has decent striking and could potentially outwork Tate. However, he admits he is not confident and will wait until weigh-ins before betting.

"i think it's a very very clear dogger pass lauren murphy for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Lauren Murphy, criticizing Murphy's lack of skill and Tate's experience. He believes Tate will win grappling exchanges and has slightly better striking. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Tate, with Tate winning the first two rounds clearly before slowing down due to weight cut.

"i'm gonna go with misha tate here lauren murphy has no idea what she's doing she's terrible at fighting"
LOSS vs Ketlen Vieira
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · Nov 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ketlen Vieira 0 113 of 263 42% 156 of 313 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Miesha Tate 0 122 of 276 44% 145 of 302 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ketlen Vieira 0 14 of 38 36% 18 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 13 of 38 34% 16 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:52
2 Ketlen Vieira 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 21 of 54 38% 21 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ketlen Vieira 0 20 of 55 36% 28 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 24 of 57 42% 26 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
4 Ketlen Vieira 0 20 of 43 46% 50 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Miesha Tate 0 31 of 54 57% 44 of 70 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:34
5 Ketlen Vieira 0 30 of 73 41% 31 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 33 of 73 45% 38 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ketlen Vieira 113 of 263 42% 95 of 243 14 of 16 4 of 4 105 of 254 8 of 9 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 122 of 276 44% 52 of 175 60 of 88 10 of 13 110 of 260 12 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ketlen Vieira 14 of 38 36% 12 of 36 1 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 36 1 of 2 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 13 of 38 34% 8 of 24 4 of 11 1 of 3 13 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Ketlen Vieira 29 of 54 53% 24 of 48 2 of 3 3 of 3 29 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 21 of 54 38% 14 of 42 6 of 10 1 of 2 21 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ketlen Vieira 20 of 55 36% 18 of 52 2 of 3 0 of 0 20 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 24 of 57 42% 4 of 28 15 of 24 5 of 5 21 of 54 3 of 3 0 of 0
4 Ketlen Vieira 20 of 43 46% 16 of 39 4 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 38 5 of 5 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 31 of 54 57% 8 of 27 21 of 25 2 of 2 24 of 45 7 of 9 0 of 0
5 Ketlen Vieira 30 of 73 41% 25 of 68 5 of 5 0 of 0 28 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 33 of 73 45% 18 of 54 14 of 18 1 of 1 31 of 70 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ketlen Vieira vs. Miesha Tate

Round 1
At long last, we have reached the main event. It’s been a journey tonight. Vieira (11-2, 5-2 UFC) will try to get back in the win column against former champ Tate (19-7, 6-4 UFC). The cage commander for this final fight of the night is referee Jason Herzog, and both with an eye on a crack at the bantamweight belt in the future touch hands to start things out. Vieira captures the center of the cage in the early going, but they keep a very safe range from the other to not land punches or kicks. They take turns following the other, until Vieira sits down with a right hand to smack Tate in the face. Tate tries to jab the body a few times, and Vieira is there to pop her with a left hand over the top. Tate swings, misses, and gets countered by the Brazilian. Vieira sticks out a crisp jab, and her range is giving Tate pause at how to get in on her. When Tate jumps forward into a one-two, Vieira swats it out of the way and dances back when Tate aims a kick at her leg. Tate appears jittery as she hops back and forth to try to get in on Vieira, throwing a single front kick to the body. Vieira tags Tate with a right hand when Tate closes in on her, and the former champ lands a pair of successful punches. Caught celebrating her work a little too long, Vieira counters her with heavier blows before Tate can escape. The distance between the two is vast, and Tate resorts to staggering and stutter-stepping her way in. Tate chases Vieira down and slugs her in the face with a combination, and when Vieira tries to answer her with strikes of her own, Tate ties her up and presses her into the wall. Although Vieira separates, Tate knees her once to the body. Tate ducks a punch combination to push Vieira back into the wire, and like before, Vieira is able to separate without issue. From a distance, Vieira shoots in for a takedown, and Tate is able to stop it from succeeding. They end the round in an awkward position with Tate’s hand on her foe’s backside.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate

Round 2
A tense exchange begins the second round, and Vieira lands cleanly on Tate’s left eye, forcing some reddening and immediate swelling. Tate pays it no mind as she kicks Vieira in the head, but it is only a glancing blow as the Brazilian rolls with it. Tate keeps reaching out to try to get in on her opponent, and she eats a Vieira punch so that she can score a solid right hand. The former champ plants the fall of her foot on Vieira’s torso, interrupting Vieira from landing a strike. Tate winds up with a stiff right hand, nailing Vieira and forcing her to reel. In response, Vieira scores a left hand down the pipe. Vieira chops at the leg, and they both start trading heavy leather in front of one another. Tate lands, and Vieira is stuck countering instead of leading the exchanges. This allows Tate to land on her first before replying. Tate connects with a big kick to Vieira’s face, and she sees that it has done some damage as she follows it with a chain of punches. Tate strings together a few one-twos, and Vieira shakes it off and lands her own thudding left hook on the side of Tate’s head. The woman formerly known as “Takedown” attempts one in the open cage, and Vieira stuffs it without issue. She tries again, and Vieira stops that one as well and separates. Tate walks Vieira down with kicks and punches, while not appearing too worried about the single counters that come back at her. Tate scores with a pair of clean right hands, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate

Round 3
Tate comes out firing to start off the second round, surprising the Brazilian early with a short blitz of blows. Backing away before the counters follow suit, Tate changes things up with an inside leg kick and then one on the outside. Vieira leans into a left hand, and after a lull in the action, Tate reaches out with a left hand to stop a punch and she pokes Vieira square in the eyeball. Herzog acknowledges this and brings in the doctor, and after a minute to clear things out, Vieira is ready to go again. Tate wants to capitalize on this accident by chasing Vieira down with jabs and follow-up right hands. Tate keeps a low stance, and she punches the body while Vieira is sitting firmly on counters. Tate punches, slips the response and jabs out again. Tate gives chase, and a big right hand gets caught under Vieira’s armpit. Tate lands a right, tries to clinch up and eats a short right hand for her effort. Tate goes up high with a kick, and when it collides off of Vieira’s guard, Vieira aims a right hand down the middle. Tate advances, and Vieira swings a pair of looping hooks to keep Tate honest. The former champ lands a single strike, while Vieira’s prepared counter of an uppercut and a right hand knocks Tate back. The Brazilian lands cleanly in another exchange, forcing Tate to change levels and pursue a takedown. Vieira defends it well and separates without going down to her knees. When Vieira gets up, Tate meets her outstretched leg with a kick, and Vieira lances her with a right hand in a sharp retort. Tate rushes forward to clinch her up to end the round, and she holds on to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 4
They meet and touch gloves in the center of the cage to initiate the championship rounds. Tate starts off aggressively, chasing her opponent down and landing punches. Tate clubs her opponent with a crisp right hand, and she escapes when Vieira sets up a counter. The Brazilian lands a few punches from a distance, and they trade heavily suddenly. Tate mixes things up with a takedown attempt, and she finally hits it and gets Vieira down. As “Fenomeno” stands up, Tate takes her back and looks to hit a mat return by tripping Vieira down. Clinched up, Tate gives up on the takedown entry so that she can land short strikes to the body and head. Staying tight keeps Tate away from eating any counters, and she presses her full body weight on her opponent that had never before fought beyond the third round. Vieira grits her teeth and pushes Tate away, and she starts lunging out with jabs. Tate marks her up with a big punch, and Vieira blasts her right back. Both women wear it well, and Tate kicks Vieira in the body from afar. Tate lands a few punches before coming in to clinch, and she knees Vieira in the body once. Vieira gives several punches back to the midsection, until Tate has had enough of that and pushes away. A Tate leg kick is met with a straight left hand, and Vieira catches Tate coming in with a string of punches. Vieira loads up on a right hand, and she elbows Tate when Tate tries to clinch. Vieira welcomes the clinch again in the open cage, as she repeatedly punches Tate in the side as she did before. Tate holds on tight with a clinch, and she releases a knee to the head. Another knee scores for the former champ, who ends the round in the Thai clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate

Round 5
The bantamweights touch hands and then come in to hug to commence the last round. Vieira lets her hands go when they start fighting, and she connects cleanly with power punches as Tate looks to be safe. They come together in a clinch, and Tate works the body before Vieira separates. Vieira tags her opponent with an uppercut and a left hand, and Tate is forced to back off and gather her thoughts. When she does, the ex-champ kicks the body and then tries to get a knee off to the chest. Tate kicks the body, but Vieira is there to bang with her as she starts throwing hard. As Tate backs off, Vieira leans on a long jab, and she busts Tate’s nose open with a powerful knee and a few punches up top. Tate misses on one-twos as Vieira appears to be the fresher, more composed woman right now. Tate springs back and forth, jabbing out but not throwing nearly as much as she did before the nose got cracked. Tate sneaks a right hand over the top, but Vieira throws three back at her that are much heavier. They trade single jabs, and Tate steps forward into a one-two that knocks Vieira back. Vieira returns fire with jabs that continue to pound into Tate’s bloodied nose, and the former champion’s face has transformed into a crimson mask. Hardly recognizable, Tate does not care, as she continues to swing punches while Vieira is tight and crisp with her boxing. The jabs have shut Tate’s left eye as well as making her nose bleed furiously, and Tate marches on and kicks her in the side. Tate continues to pour it on as Vieira stays on her bicycle, successfully scoring with laser-accurate strikes that barely register for Tate. The fight comes to an end after 25 minutes of action, and it could be anyone’s guess who wins this fight based on how close most of the rounds were. UFC Fight Night 198, and a consecutive weekend stretch of 10 UFC cards, comes to an end with an event that brought 10 decisions in 11 bouts. We all could use a week off, and we will have it. When the UFC returns in December, it will be on ESPN for U.S. audiences with a barnburner of a main event between Rob Font and Jose Aldo. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Vieira)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Vieira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Tate)

The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Miesha Tate via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Angelo picks Ketlen Vieira, citing her power, size, and solid takedown defense (92%). He notes Miesha Tate's striking is poor and she relies on takedowns, but Vieira has stuffed takedowns from Olympic wrestler Sarah McMahon. He expects Vieira to win by decision or late stoppage, and placed a moneyline bet at even money (+100). He also mentions live betting opportunities.

Moneyline bet at +100, 1 unit; DraftKings price 7900; monkey knife fight more/more; mentions live betting if Tate has takedown success early
"caitlyn is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by late finish (4th or 5th round). He notes that Ketlen Vieira has never fought five rounds and tends to slow down in the third round, as seen in fights against Eubanks and Kanutsukai. He believes Tate's improved striking and wrestling will allow her to survive early and take over as Vieira fades. He sees a late stoppage as very live.

win by TKO or submission, fourth or fifth round
"I'm gonna take misha tate to win give me like a fourth or fifth round late late round uh later on stoppage here for tate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Cody believes Miesha Tate is undervalued as a slight underdog. He points to Tate's championship pedigree, improved striking, and excellent conditioning for a five-round fight. He highlights Ketlen Vieira's history of gassing in the third round of her fights, including against Yana Kunitskaya where she was out-struck 44-7. Cody argues that Tate's wrestling is good enough to stuff takedowns and that if the fight stays standing, Tate has the advantage. He expects Tate to take over in rounds four and five as Vieira fades.

"what am i missing here paul like what i don't under 100 and understand why uh it's misha tate's slight underdog status versus ket and vieira"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Daniel Levi picks Ketlen Vieira despite her history of mental lapses and cardio issues. He notes that Vieira has superior skills across the board, including judo and power, but worries about her hitting a wall in later rounds. He believes Miesha Tate is stiff and slow, and that Vieira has no pressure on her in this fight. However, he acknowledges Tate's toughness and comeback ability, making this a hesitant pick.

"i think vieira's the better fighter honestly across the board... i'm gonna go with kellen vieira she's been very quiet very business business-minded approach this week"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Miesha Tate

Lock sees this as a classic early Vera vs late Tate fight. He thinks Vera gasses badly after round two, and Tate will take over with takedowns and top control. He notes Tate is hunting a finish and might get it late. Lock likes the under 4.5 rounds at +140 and Tate inside the distance at +375. He also sprinkled Tate round 4 and round 5 props.

Under 4.5 rounds +140, Miesha Tate inside the distance +375, Miesha Tate round 4 +2500, Miesha Tate round 5 +3000, Ketlen Vieira by KO +600
"I like the under four and a half at plus 140ish... I think those takedowns will come a little bit easier for tate as the fight wears on."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting that Vieira's gas tank is a major concern, especially in a five-round fight. He references the Yana Kunitskaya fight where Vieira missed weight and gassed hard at the end of round three. Paul believes that if Vieira cannot put Tate away early, Tate will take over late. He also mentions that this could be a good live bet opportunity if Vieira slows down in round three and Tate is still available at plus money.

Paul mentions this could be an even better live bet if we get into round three and Vieira starts slowing down; he notes Tate was plus money (-105) at DraftKings.
"i'm gonna have some money on misha tape straight up but i feel like potentially this could be an even better live bet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Ketlen Vieira. He notes that Vieira slows down in later rounds, as seen against Yana Kunitskaya and Sijara Eubanks. He highlights Tate's championship experience, composure, and conditioning. He expects a stalemate on the feet early, but Tate to win scrambles and land ground and pound in the later rounds, finishing with a fourth-round TKO.

fourth round TKO via ground and pound
"i'm going with misha tate as the favorite here i reckon she's got this one in the bag"
WIN vs Marion Reneau
TKO (punches) R3 1:53 · UFC on ESPN: Makhachev vs. Moises · Jul 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miesha Tate 0 25 of 64 39% 48 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marion Reneau 0 65 of 120 54% 110 of 183 3 of 6 50% 0 0 5:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miesha Tate 0 15 of 37 40% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marion Reneau 0 25 of 43 58% 34 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:36
2 Miesha Tate 0 8 of 18 44% 16 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marion Reneau 0 22 of 40 55% 45 of 64 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:01
3 Miesha Tate 0 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marion Reneau 0 18 of 37 48% 31 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miesha Tate 25 of 64 39% 16 of 54 7 of 8 2 of 2 15 of 49 7 of 9 3 of 6
Marion Reneau 65 of 120 54% 44 of 93 16 of 20 5 of 7 32 of 74 8 of 8 25 of 38
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miesha Tate 15 of 37 40% 8 of 29 5 of 6 2 of 2 7 of 26 6 of 8 2 of 3
Marion Reneau 25 of 43 58% 15 of 31 9 of 10 1 of 2 19 of 37 5 of 5 1 of 1
2 Miesha Tate 8 of 18 44% 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 3
Marion Reneau 22 of 40 55% 15 of 29 3 of 6 4 of 5 8 of 25 0 of 0 14 of 15
3 Miesha Tate 2 of 9 22% 1 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marion Reneau 18 of 37 48% 14 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 12 3 of 3 10 of 22
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Cody is confident in Miesha Tate despite the five-year layoff, citing her excellent physical shape and the fact that Marion Reneau is on a four-fight losing streak and has announced her retirement. He believes Tate's wrestling and grappling will be the difference, and he is surprised the odds are not wider. He acknowledges the red flags but thinks the matchup is favorable.

"Miesha Tate I got it like minus 122 I think minus 135 is still more than fair in this spot."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul expresses significant doubts about Miesha Tate's return, citing the five-year layoff, her split with longtime coach Brian Caraway, and her lackluster performances before retiring. He notes that Marion Reneau is durable and has experience, but ultimately he has no confidence in either fighter and passes on betting the fight. He does not make a clear pick.

"I have no confidence on the fight okay so just because dude he just talked about mirror no having a shot doesn't matter okay I'm just either pass."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor · Nov 12, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 21 of 65 32% 48 of 93 1 of 5 20% 0 0 4:26
Miesha Tate 0 43 of 77 55% 111 of 156 1 of 1 100% 3 0 6:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 7 of 29 24% 12 of 34 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:35
Miesha Tate 0 8 of 21 38% 14 of 27 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:20
2 Raquel Pennington 0 13 of 32 40% 26 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:36
Miesha Tate 0 24 of 37 64% 55 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:57
3 Raquel Pennington 0 1 of 4 25% 10 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Miesha Tate 0 11 of 19 57% 42 of 55 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 21 of 65 32% 8 of 34 11 of 28 2 of 3 11 of 47 10 of 18 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 43 of 77 55% 31 of 65 8 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 46 13 of 15 11 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 7 of 29 24% 2 of 13 3 of 13 2 of 3 7 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 8 of 21 38% 7 of 20 0 of 0 1 of 1 8 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 13 of 32 40% 5 of 17 8 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 14 10 of 18 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 24 of 37 64% 16 of 29 8 of 8 0 of 0 11 of 22 13 of 15 0 of 0
3 Raquel Pennington 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 11 of 19 57% 8 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 3 0 of 0 11 of 16
LOSS vs Amanda Nunes
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:16 · UFC 200: Tate vs. Nunes · Jul 09, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 0 3 of 15 20% 3 of 15 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 40 of 63 63% 40 of 63 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 0 3 of 15 20% 3 of 15 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 40 of 63 63% 40 of 63 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 3 of 15 20% 2 of 12 1 of 2 0 of 1 3 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 40 of 63 63% 35 of 54 3 of 5 2 of 4 30 of 50 3 of 5 7 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 3 of 15 20% 2 of 12 1 of 2 0 of 1 3 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 40 of 63 63% 35 of 54 3 of 5 2 of 4 30 of 50 3 of 5 7 of 8
WIN vs Holly Holm
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R5 3:30 · UFC 196: McGregor vs. Diaz · Mar 05, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miesha Tate 0 59 of 142 41% 68 of 151 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Holly Holm 0 40 of 104 38% 65 of 132 2 of 9 22% 2 0 5:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miesha Tate 0 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Holly Holm 0 7 of 27 25% 7 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Miesha Tate 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Holly Holm 0 11 of 18 61% 29 of 36 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:30
3 Miesha Tate 0 13 of 41 31% 13 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Holly Holm 0 7 of 23 30% 8 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Miesha Tate 0 14 of 40 35% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Holly Holm 0 7 of 22 31% 12 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
5 Miesha Tate 0 17 of 31 54% 18 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Holly Holm 0 8 of 14 57% 9 of 16 1 of 3 33% 1 0 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miesha Tate 59 of 142 41% 35 of 109 16 of 21 8 of 12 57 of 139 2 of 3 0 of 0
Holly Holm 40 of 104 38% 29 of 83 7 of 12 4 of 9 26 of 88 4 of 4 10 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miesha Tate 14 of 28 50% 8 of 19 5 of 5 1 of 4 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Holly Holm 7 of 27 25% 7 of 23 0 of 2 0 of 2 6 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Miesha Tate 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Holly Holm 11 of 18 61% 10 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 12
3 Miesha Tate 13 of 41 31% 9 of 35 2 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Holly Holm 7 of 23 30% 3 of 16 2 of 3 2 of 4 7 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Miesha Tate 14 of 40 35% 8 of 30 3 of 6 3 of 4 12 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
Holly Holm 7 of 22 31% 6 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Miesha Tate 17 of 31 54% 10 of 24 5 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0
Holly Holm 8 of 14 57% 3 of 8 3 of 4 2 of 2 7 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0