Career Averages - Frankie Edgar
Career Averages - Cub Swanson
Frankie Edgar - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 94 of 155 | 60% | 138 of 202 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:25 |
| Frankie Edgar | 1 | 88 of 164 | 53% | 110 of 187 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 35 of 45 | 77% | 67 of 80 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 |
| Frankie Edgar | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 36 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 27 of 47 | 57% | 39 of 59 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Frankie Edgar | 0 | 32 of 65 | 49% | 36 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 32 of 63 | 50% | 32 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Frankie Edgar | 1 | 38 of 64 | 59% | 38 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera | 94 of 155 | 60% | 59 of 113 | 25 of 32 | 10 of 10 | 69 of 125 | 0 of 1 | 25 of 29 |
| Frankie Edgar | 88 of 164 | 53% | 60 of 130 | 22 of 26 | 6 of 8 | 75 of 140 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 23 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marlon Vera | 35 of 45 | 77% | 22 of 31 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 20 |
| Frankie Edgar | 18 of 35 | 51% | 14 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 | |
| 2 | Marlon Vera | 27 of 47 | 57% | 19 of 35 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
| Frankie Edgar | 32 of 65 | 49% | 18 of 47 | 12 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 27 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | |
| 3 | Marlon Vera | 32 of 63 | 50% | 18 of 47 | 11 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 32 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Frankie Edgar | 38 of 64 | 59% | 28 of 53 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 37 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The hits keep right on coming, we hope you’re not worn out from what you’ve witnessed the last several fights. Former lightweight champion and multiple-time featherweight title challenger Edgar (24-9-1, 18-9-1 UFC) will answer the call at the age of 40 against furious Ecuadorian striker Vera (17-7-1, 11-6 UFC). Although Vera will clock in 12 years his opponent’s junior, he is not taking Edgar lightly, and referee Todd Anderson will have his work cut out for him in the next 15 minutes. Vera crawls out of his corner like Jon Jones, and because of this, there is no glove touch. Instead, when Vera stands up, they start trading. Edgar walks Vera down and slugs him in the face with a right hand, and Edgar shoots in for a takedown from afar. Edgar lands a left, and then another, and he walks through a leg kick so that he can keep punching. Vera sticks his tongue out as he stalks Edgar, and Edgar greets him with punches. Vera is struggling to find his range as Edgar gets in and out of range in time, popping Vera with strikes and escaping before counters find him. Edgar catches a leg kick, and he dives in for a takedown. When Edgar hits it, Vera defends with a guillotine choke on his back, but with Vera flat on his back, there is no choke set up. Vera bucks Edgar back to his full guard, and he closes it around the former champ. Edgar breaks the posture by pumping up and down, and he slashes with vicious elbows right on the nose. Vera lets rip several elbows from his back to make Edgar honest, and chants for “Let’s go, Frankie” rain down in the arena. Vera defends successfully with hacking elbows, and Edgar sits up every so often to land some ground-and-pound. Edgar fights off a possible armbar setup to land strikes, and when he stands up, Vera starts spamming upkicks. Edgar masterfully dodges most of the strikes before dropping back down into Vera’s guard, and he begins to batter Vera with more elbows. “Chito” has his guard closed for the most part, but Edgar lands strikes from above until the horn sounds. When Edgar stands up, Vera kicks him in the face illegally, and Edgar protests.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Edgar
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Edgar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Edgar
Round 2
Vera practically sprints out of his corner to engage, but he does not throw much in the first 20 seconds. The Ecuadorian gets off an inside leg kick, and he pops Edgar in the face to draw a little swelling around Edgar’s left eye. Vera is sharp with his hands as he gives chase, and he lands a body kick right before Edgar charges him. When the former champ rushes in, he throws a combination and gets clipped with a counter on the way out, but he is no worse for wear. Vera steps in with a knee, and Edgar’s eyes light up as he grabs his opponent’s leg and throws him down to the canvas. Edgar stacks Vera up in a high guard to keep him from defending or getting any upkicks off, all while slapping him in the face with hammerfists. Edgar comfortably sits down to land strikes, but Vera suddenly somersaults backwards to break the posture and stand back up. When back upright, Vera runs after Edgar to lay into him with strikes. “Chito” throws a kick, and Edgar grabs it but cannot punish him for this strike by taking him down. Vera pulls his leg back, and he takes an uppercut to the chops. Vera eats a few body shots so that he can knee Edgar in the face, and he is making Edgar retreat constantly as he peppers the midsection with front kicks. Vera scores a solid knee to make Edgar do a little flip on the ground to fall down and get back to his feet, and when he gets back up, Vera punches him in the face. Edgar lands a single leg kick, and Vera raises his arms in the air to taunt him, which allows Edgar to kick him two more times down low. Edgar sits down on a right hand, and he swipes with a hook to make Vera take a step back. Vera turns around and lands a back kick, and he blasts Edgar in the face with an elbow to put Edgar on rubber legs. Vera gets off a head kick, and he tries to finish the job, but he cannot because the round ends. Both bantamweights exchange words, and Vera flips him off as Anderson separates them.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Round 3
Vera attacks first to start of the final round, with long, rangy punches and front kicks. Vera scores a punch, and Edgar returns fire with a one-two. Edgar has a head kick clatter off the body, Vera is on him to land power shots. Vera stabs the midsection with a kick, and he turtles up when Edgar unloads on him. A leg kick from Vera makes Edgar back off, and “Chito” turns to plant a side kick on Edgar’s torso. Edgar has a takedown stuffed, and he walks into a right hand and an uppercut. Vera lets rip with a leg kick, and Edgar tags him with four punches to the body before retreating. Edgar gets marked up with a sharp uppercut, and Vera is taking it to him and making Edgar constantly backpedal. Vera’s body kick gets through, and Edgar returns fire with a short combination. The power differential is far in the favor of the Ecuadorian at this point, but Edgar is more content to land with volume while Vera is looking for the one-hitter quitter. One punch knocks Edgar’s mouthpiece out, and Anderson runs over to replace it as Vera gives a cheeky look and shrug to the camera. Edgar gets rocked by a left hand, and he catches a rampaging Vera by hitting a takedown and putting him on the ground. “Chito” powers his way back up to his feet in an instant, and he breaks the grip to line up a right hand. They both throw hands in the pocket, and Vera steps back to unleash a front kick reminiscent of Anderson Silva booting Vitor Belfort in the face. Edgar’s legs disintegrate beneath him as he falls face-first to the mat, and Vera gets off a hammerfists or two before Anderson can sprint in to halt the fight. Edgar protests the stoppage, but considering he was out on his feet when he stood up and nearly fell over walking to his corner, it appears to have been the right call. They settle their in-cage beef after the fight concludes, and show some respect to one another after a fun melee.
The Official Result
Marlon Vera def. Frankie Edgar R3 3:50 via KO (Front Kick)
Angelo picks Frankie Edgar, but hesitantly. He believes Edgar's wrestling, footwork, and cardio are superior, and that if Edgar implements a wrestling game plan, he wins. However, he worries about Edgar's chin after recent knockouts. He thinks Vera is overrated and that Edgar can win a decision if he avoids getting caught. He also likes the over on the 1.5 round line.
Big Brady picks Marlon Vera to win by third-round knockout. He notes Vera's durability and power, while Frankie Edgar is 40 years old with diminishing durability and has been knocked out three times recently. Brady thinks Edgar could win on paper with takedowns, but at this stage, Vera's youth and toughness will prevail. He expects Vera to drop the first round but build into the fight and finish Edgar late.
Cody agrees Edgar is a live underdog, citing Vera's slow starts and poor takedown defense. He worries about Edgar's age (40) and recent KO losses but thinks Edgar's wrestling and pace could win close rounds. He notes the 'Frankie effect' in New York.
Daniel Levi picks Marlon Vera to win, citing Vera's finishing ability, youth (28 vs 40), and improvement under Jason Parillo. He expects Vera to land more damage and potentially get a finish, but warns that Frankie Edgar may try to stall and clinch. Levi notes that Vera has a bad habit of starting slow but should pull away in the later rounds as Edgar's durability wanes. He also mentions that Vera has an insane chin and is still improving.
Jacob picks Marlon Vera, citing his youth (28) and upward trajectory. He believes Vera's length and jiu-jitsu will be problematic for Edgar, and that Edgar's chin is a major liability. He thinks Vera can win by knockout or decision, and that Edgar's only chance is an ugly decision via wrestling and leg kicks. He is confident in Vera.
The host bets Edgar at +148, believing his pressure, takedowns, and volume will outwork Vera. He doubts Vera's one-punch KO power and thinks Edgar's chin will hold. He expects Edgar to win a decision.
Paul leans Edgar, believing his wrestling and pace can win close rounds. He notes Vera's slow starts and poor takedown defense (69%), which Edgar can exploit. He also mentions the 'Frankie effect' in New York, where judges favor the veteran. He bet fight goes to decision at -150.
The Guru picks Marlon Vera by decision, predicting a brutal beatdown. He expects Edgar to win the first round with grappling, but Vera will take over with body shots, elbows, and range striking, eventually wearing Edgar down. The Guru notes Edgar's age and recent KO loss, and believes Vera's size and reach advantage will be key. He predicts a 29-27 unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Sandhagen | 1 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Frankie Edgar | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cory Sandhagen | 1 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Frankie Edgar | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Sandhagen | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Frankie Edgar | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cory Sandhagen | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Frankie Edgar | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Cory Sandhagen, calling the odds 'insane' and noting Sandhagen's striking volume and durability. He acknowledges Frankie Edgar's path to victory via takedowns, but believes Sandhagen's ability to get back up and his chin will prevail. He predicts a knockout, citing Edgar's declining chin, and suggests looking at the knockout prop for better value.
Daniel Levi leans with Cory Sandhagen, acknowledging Frankie Edgar's takedown threat and Sandhagen's poor takedown defense (30%). He notes Edgar's experience against taller fighters and his durability at 135, but believes Sandhagen's striking output and range will be key. He says it's a dog-or-pass situation and doesn't blame anyone betting on Edgar.
Sandhagen's unorthodox style, feints, and footwork will be difficult for Edgar to deal with. He uses his reach and height advantage well, and his diverse striking (kicks, spinning attacks) should keep Edgar at range. Edgar has struggled with bigger fighters who can maintain distance. Sandhagen's takedown defense is a concern, but Edgar's wrestling may not be as effective at 135. I expect Sandhagen to win a decision by landing the better shots and controlling the distance. The line is a bit wide, but Sandhagen should get the win.
The MMA Guru picks Cory Sandhagen, calling him a deserving favorite but criticizing the -440 odds as too high. He highlights Sandhagen's length, kicking game, and takedown defense. He predicts Sandhagen will use front kicks and question mark kicks to set up a head kick TKO in the second round, noting Edgar's boxing will be negated by range.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Edgar | 0 | 166 of 350 | 47% | 166 of 350 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 135 of 363 | 37% | 135 of 363 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frankie Edgar | 0 | 30 of 64 | 46% | 30 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 29 of 77 | 37% | 29 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Frankie Edgar | 0 | 21 of 57 | 36% | 21 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 25 of 61 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Frankie Edgar | 0 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 33 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 24 of 60 | 40% | 24 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Frankie Edgar | 0 | 35 of 74 | 47% | 35 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 24 of 82 | 29% | 24 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 5 | Frankie Edgar | 0 | 47 of 95 | 49% | 47 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 33 of 83 | 39% | 33 of 83 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Edgar | 166 of 350 | 47% | 98 of 259 | 24 of 39 | 44 of 52 | 166 of 350 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 135 of 363 | 37% | 105 of 309 | 23 of 46 | 7 of 8 | 134 of 361 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frankie Edgar | 30 of 64 | 46% | 15 of 46 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 13 | 30 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 29 of 77 | 37% | 23 of 63 | 4 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 29 of 77 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Frankie Edgar | 21 of 57 | 36% | 16 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 21 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 25 of 61 | 40% | 19 of 50 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 24 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Frankie Edgar | 33 of 60 | 55% | 18 of 42 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 12 | 33 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 24 of 60 | 40% | 16 of 46 | 5 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Frankie Edgar | 35 of 74 | 47% | 24 of 56 | 4 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 35 of 74 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 24 of 82 | 29% | 20 of 75 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Frankie Edgar | 47 of 95 | 49% | 25 of 65 | 11 of 16 | 11 of 14 | 47 of 95 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 33 of 83 | 39% | 27 of 75 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Pedro Munhoz to win by third-round knockout. He believes Frankie Edgar is on his way out at 38 years old, questioning his durability and chin. Munhoz has excellent takedown defense (81%) and is dangerous on the ground with a guillotine, so Brady expects the fight to stay on the feet where Munhoz throws more volume and hits harder. He notes Munhoz has never been knocked out or submitted, while Edgar has been knocked out twice.
Daniel Levi picks Pedro Munhoz to win by first-round stoppage. He argues that Frankie Edgar has not evolved his style since 2010, relying on pitter-patter boxing, while Munhoz has devastating calf kicks, one-punch power, and a world-class guillotine. Levi notes Edgar's durability has declined with age and that dropping to bantamweight removes his speed advantage. He believes Munhoz will pressure Edgar and finish him early, similar to the Korean Zombie fight.
Pedro Munhoz is the pick because Frankie Edgar is 38, cutting to 135 for the first time, and has shown dwindling durability after the Korean Zombie loss. Munhoz's calf kicks and power punching will be too much for Edgar, who struggles to close distance without eating shots. Munhoz's guillotine threat also neutralizes Edgar's wrestling. Expect a finish inside the distance, likely by TKO in the second or third round.
The MMA Guru picks Pedro Munhoz, citing Frankie Edgar's history of KO losses and damage taken, and the disadvantage of moving down in weight. He praises Munhoz's iron chin, pressure, and body work, predicting a late first-round or early second-round TKO after Edgar shoots for a takedown.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Frankie Edgar | 1 | 46 of 60 | 76% | 79 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Frankie Edgar | 1 | 46 of 60 | 76% | 79 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chan Sung Jung | 9 of 14 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Frankie Edgar | 46 of 60 | 76% | 46 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 38 of 42 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chan Sung Jung | 9 of 14 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Frankie Edgar | 46 of 60 | 76% | 46 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 38 of 42 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 0 | 129 of 328 | 39% | 131 of 330 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Frankie Edgar | 0 | 96 of 264 | 36% | 96 of 264 | 1 of 15 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 13 of 48 | 27% | 13 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Frankie Edgar | 0 | 18 of 53 | 33% | 18 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 27 of 69 | 39% | 27 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Frankie Edgar | 0 | 13 of 55 | 23% | 13 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 30 of 61 | 49% | 30 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Frankie Edgar | 0 | 17 of 48 | 35% | 17 of 48 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 29 of 76 | 38% | 31 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Frankie Edgar | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 22 of 47 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 0 | 30 of 74 | 40% | 30 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Frankie Edgar | 0 | 26 of 61 | 42% | 26 of 61 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 129 of 328 | 39% | 109 of 295 | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 120 of 319 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Frankie Edgar | 96 of 264 | 36% | 57 of 195 | 21 of 48 | 18 of 21 | 93 of 252 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 13 of 48 | 27% | 9 of 42 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Frankie Edgar | 18 of 53 | 33% | 10 of 40 | 3 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 27 of 69 | 39% | 22 of 60 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Frankie Edgar | 13 of 55 | 23% | 8 of 44 | 1 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 30 of 61 | 49% | 22 of 52 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 53 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Frankie Edgar | 17 of 48 | 35% | 10 of 36 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 29 of 76 | 38% | 27 of 72 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Frankie Edgar | 22 of 47 | 46% | 14 of 35 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 22 of 45 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 30 of 74 | 40% | 29 of 69 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 74 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Frankie Edgar | 26 of 61 | 42% | 15 of 40 | 5 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 26 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Edgar | 0 | 58 of 136 | 42% | 60 of 139 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 48 of 130 | 36% | 50 of 132 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frankie Edgar | 0 | 16 of 43 | 37% | 17 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 13 of 42 | 30% | 14 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Frankie Edgar | 0 | 21 of 53 | 39% | 21 of 53 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 18 of 50 | 36% | 18 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Frankie Edgar | 0 | 21 of 40 | 52% | 22 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Edgar | 58 of 136 | 42% | 33 of 106 | 6 of 10 | 19 of 20 | 52 of 126 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 48 of 130 | 36% | 32 of 110 | 11 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 42 of 122 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frankie Edgar | 16 of 43 | 37% | 8 of 33 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 13 of 42 | 30% | 8 of 35 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Frankie Edgar | 21 of 53 | 39% | 12 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 18 of 49 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 18 of 50 | 36% | 14 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Frankie Edgar | 21 of 40 | 52% | 13 of 30 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 19 of 35 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 17 of 38 | 44% | 10 of 29 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Ortega | 0 | 27 of 77 | 35% | 27 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Frankie Edgar | 1 | 25 of 76 | 32% | 25 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Ortega | 0 | 27 of 77 | 35% | 27 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Frankie Edgar | 1 | 25 of 76 | 32% | 25 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Ortega | 27 of 77 | 35% | 12 of 59 | 10 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Frankie Edgar | 25 of 76 | 32% | 21 of 71 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 66 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Ortega | 27 of 77 | 35% | 12 of 59 | 10 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Frankie Edgar | 25 of 76 | 32% | 21 of 71 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 66 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 |
Cub Swanson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 2 | 37 of 49 | 75% | 40 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 2 | 37 of 49 | 75% | 40 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 37 of 49 | 75% | 23 of 33 | 7 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 35 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Nate Landwehr | 15 of 30 | 50% | 9 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 37 of 49 | 75% | 23 of 33 | 7 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 35 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Nate Landwehr | 15 of 30 | 50% | 9 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Cub Swanson in his retirement fight, citing his superior technique, fight IQ, and all-around skills. He notes Landwehr's reliance on his chin, which has given out, and believes Swanson is the better fighter everywhere. He expects the crowd support to help in a decision.
Big Brady expects a war, noting both fighters are durable and willing to brawl. He thinks Landwehr could use his grappling to submit Swanson, who has been submitted seven times. He worries about Landwehr's recent knockout losses and damage taken, but leans Landwehr by submission in the second or third round.
Cody also picks Swanson, citing Landwehr's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Swanson's speed and volume will be too much for Landwehr, who has been knocked out recently.
Connor picks Landwehr, arguing that Swanson is too slow now and that Landwehr's pressure and durability will be too much. He notes that Swanson's last fight against Billy Quarantillo was tooth-and-nail, and that Swanson can't move his feet anymore. Connor believes Landwehr is still capable of winning a grimy pocket fight, and that Swanson's age (42) and layoff will catch up to him. He thinks Swanson will end up in Landwehr's kind of fight and get chin-checked.
Daniel respects Swanson but thinks Landwehr's pace and calf kicks will be too much for the 42-year-old. He sees Landwehr winning by accumulation of damage or submission.
Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Landwehr, believing that Landwehr's pressure, leg kicks, and grappling will overwhelm the aging Cub Swanson. He notes that Swanson's cardio fades after the first round and that Landwehr is durable and gets better as the fight goes on. He also mentions that Swanson's retirement fight may be a paycheck fight.
The host leans towards Landwehr due to Swanson's long layoff (2 years) at age 42, which could lead to significant decline. He notes Landwehr's more recent fight showed better cardio, while Swanson slowed in his last fights. He also thinks Landwehr is more likely to be fully focused, while Swanson has outside business distractions. However, he acknowledges both fighters are old and inconsistent, so confidence is low.
James picks Cub Swanson, citing his experience in wars and technical striking advantage. He acknowledges Landwehr's pressure but believes Swanson's durability and power will prevail.
Swanson's technical striking and counter-punching should be the difference. Landwehr is durable but tends to run into shots and has been knocked out recently. Swanson's footwork and experience allow him to land clean counters. Landwehr may try to grapple, but Swanson's defensive grappling is solid. Swanson should get the knockout in his retirement fight.
Paul picks Swanson, noting his experience, speed, and training with young killers. He believes Landwehr's durability is declining and Swanson's crisp striking will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr. He believes Swanson still has it, with recent wins over Billy Quarantillo and a split decision with Andre Fili. He notes Landwehr gets caught and KO'd, and Swanson can land a looping overhand. He predicts a TKO win in round one or two, with Swanson having a retirement send-off.
Zane picks Swanson, arguing that Landwehr is too simplistic and one-dimensional. He notes that Swanson still has head movement and pocket comfort, and that Landwehr has no footwork, feints, or subtlety. Zane believes Swanson can outclass Landwehr, comparing it to Swanson fighting a downgraded version of Jeremy Stevens. He acknowledges Swanson's age but thinks his experience and savvy will prevail. He hopes Swanson wins and retires on a high note.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 1 | 99 of 158 | 62% | 114 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 0 | 97 of 237 | 40% | 108 of 249 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 0 | 39 of 57 | 68% | 40 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 0 | 37 of 88 | 42% | 37 of 88 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Cub Swanson | 0 | 40 of 69 | 57% | 54 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 0 | 38 of 105 | 36% | 49 of 117 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 | |
| 3 | Cub Swanson | 1 | 20 of 32 | 62% | 20 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 99 of 158 | 62% | 74 of 127 | 13 of 18 | 12 of 13 | 95 of 154 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 97 of 237 | 40% | 65 of 188 | 20 of 32 | 12 of 17 | 91 of 222 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 39 of 57 | 68% | 23 of 38 | 7 of 10 | 9 of 9 | 39 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 37 of 88 | 42% | 22 of 66 | 6 of 10 | 9 of 12 | 37 of 87 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cub Swanson | 40 of 69 | 57% | 35 of 61 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 36 of 65 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 38 of 105 | 36% | 31 of 91 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 32 of 91 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cub Swanson | 20 of 32 | 62% | 16 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 22 of 44 | 50% | 12 of 31 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 22 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Quarantillo because he will be a touch faster with better movement, but he acknowledges Cub Swanson's toughness and all-around skills. He notes Quarantillo's aggression, BJJ, and volume striking, while Swanson is old and slow but still dangerous. He is considering betting the over 1.5 rounds and a plus 3.5 spread on Swanson, expecting a close decision.
Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by third-round submission. He thinks Quarantillo's pressure, volume, and grappling can break Swanson, especially if he gets the fight to the mat. He notes Swanson has been submitted many times. However, he worries about Quarantillo's chin and durability, as Swanson still has power.
Cody picks Billy Quarantillo, citing his high volume striking (7.36 strikes per minute), pressure, and submission threat. He notes Cub Swanson's age (41), mileage, and recent losses, and believes Billy's pace and durability will overwhelm Cub. Cody also mentions the hometown advantage for Billy in Tampa.
Connor also picks Swanson, citing that Quarantillo's style is similar to Colby Covington's and ages out quickly. He notes that Swanson is still sharp and dangerous, with better boxing and power, and that Quarantillo's wrestling is not a reliable path to victory. Connor thinks Quarantillo may be 'shot' and that Swanson's experience will prevail.
Daniel Vreeland picks Cub Swanson for the upset, despite being a fan of Billy Quarantillo. He argues that Quarantillo's comeback style relies on taking damage early, and at 36, that may be harder to sustain. Vreeland notes Swanson's speed, accuracy, and experience in wars, comparing this to Swanson's fight against Darren Elkins. He believes Swanson will land significant damage before Quarantillo can drag him into deep waters.
Lucrative James picks Cub Swanson as an underdog, acknowledging it's a close fight. He believes Swanson has more knockout upside early and can land heavy shots to stop Quarantillo's pressure. He notes Swanson's veteran savvy and power, but admits concerns about Swanson's age (41) and potential cardio decline. He sees value in Swanson at plus odds, though he is not fully confident.
Quarantillo's relentless and smothering grappling style will cause Cub Swanson trouble. He will crowd Swanson's space, jump on his back, and sink in a rear-naked choke, with the finish coming within 10 minutes.
Paul picks Billy Quarantillo but with some hesitation. He notes that Billy's pace can be stifled by wrestling, but Cub Swanson is unlikely to use that approach. Paul sees it as a standup affair where Billy's volume and pressure should win out, though he acknowledges Cub's toughness and the possibility of a competitive first round.
The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson as an underdog, calling Billy Quarantillo 'absolute garbage'. He criticizes Quarantillo's lack of explosiveness and poor distance management, and notes that Swanson has better hands, power, and body work. He predicts Swanson will target the body and possibly get a body shot TKO in round two. He also notes that Quarantillo has been exposed in recent fights.
Zane picks Swanson because Quarantillo's pressure style is aging poorly and he has been getting hurt and finished in recent fights. He notes that Swanson still has solid boxing fundamentals and power, and that Quarantillo's wrestling is not good enough to control Swanson, who is active off his back. Zane believes Quarantillo's style is falling apart.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 0 | 62 of 111 | 55% | 90 of 140 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 67 of 147 | 45% | 70 of 151 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 0 | 20 of 31 | 64% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 18 of 35 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:27 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 0 | 30 of 51 | 58% | 48 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 31 of 70 | 44% | 33 of 73 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 62 of 111 | 55% | 43 of 86 | 7 of 11 | 12 of 14 | 53 of 101 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 67 of 147 | 45% | 49 of 118 | 13 of 22 | 5 of 7 | 52 of 126 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 20 of 31 | 64% | 9 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 9 | 18 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 18 of 42 | 42% | 12 of 31 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 36 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 12 of 29 | 41% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 18 of 35 | 51% | 14 of 29 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 30 of 51 | 58% | 23 of 41 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 44 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 31 of 70 | 44% | 23 of 58 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 61 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Fili but is not confident due to his recent knockout losses. He notes that Fili is younger and faster, but his chin is questionable. Cody believes Fili's volume and wrestling could give him an edge, but acknowledges that Swanson is a fan favorite who often gets close decisions. He warns that Fili needs to finish Swanson to avoid a controversial decision loss.
Daniel is picking Swanson as a plus 210 underdog, citing Swanson's path to victory via knockout and his strong performance against Hakim Dawodu at similar odds. He notes that Fili is hot and cold and can be chinned. He envisions a retirement moment for Swanson where he knocks out Fili and puts his gloves down in the Octagon.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host picks Fili to win on the scorecards, but criticizes the -260 line as too high, saying Fili should be closer to -150 or -180. He expects a competitive striking battle that goes to decision, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds at -110. He notes Swanson is a live underdog at +210.
Paul picks Swanson, citing his experience and durability. He notes that Swanson has a history of winning close decisions and that Fili has been knocked out recently. Paul believes Swanson's volume and toughness will be key, and that he can win a decision or even catch Fili with a knockout. He also mentions that Swanson is a fan favorite, which may help in a close fight.
The Guru picks Andre Fili over Cub Swanson. He believes Fili is bigger, stronger, and more explosive at this stage. He notes Swanson's age (40) and size disadvantage. He likes Fili's low kicks and thinks he can finish Swanson by TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 77 of 156 | 49% | 107 of 195 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 0 | 95 of 176 | 53% | 129 of 224 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 23 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 0 | 29 of 56 | 51% | 29 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Cub Swanson | 0 | 28 of 51 | 54% | 52 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 0 | 29 of 55 | 52% | 48 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 3 | Cub Swanson | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 32 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 0 | 37 of 65 | 56% | 52 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:50 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 77 of 156 | 49% | 41 of 112 | 27 of 31 | 9 of 13 | 59 of 135 | 18 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 95 of 176 | 53% | 41 of 104 | 29 of 37 | 25 of 35 | 79 of 158 | 16 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 23 of 42 | 54% | 11 of 25 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 7 | 23 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 29 of 56 | 51% | 9 of 28 | 8 of 9 | 12 of 19 | 29 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cub Swanson | 28 of 51 | 54% | 19 of 42 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 39 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 29 of 55 | 52% | 13 of 33 | 10 of 13 | 6 of 9 | 20 of 44 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cub Swanson | 26 of 63 | 41% | 11 of 45 | 11 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 18 of 54 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 37 of 65 | 56% | 19 of 43 | 11 of 15 | 7 of 7 | 30 of 58 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dawodu based on age and speed, noting Swanson looked old in his last fight. He acknowledges Swanson could win via takedowns and decision, but leans Dawodu.
Big Brady picks Hakeem Dawodu to knock out Cub Swanson in the second round. He notes Swanson's age (39) and recent durability issues, especially in the Jonathan Martinez fight where he was hurt to the head, body, and legs. He believes Dawodu's mixing of strikes will wear down Swanson and lead to a finish. He expects this to be Swanson's retirement fight.
Cody is torn on this fight. He notes Cub Swanson is nearing 40 and coming off a brutal loss to Jonathan Martinez, but also has a history of pulling off upsets. He criticizes Hakeem Dawodu's low output and lack of finishing ability, but acknowledges Cub's age and damage. He ultimately decides to pass on betting, saying he has other underdogs he prefers.
James picks Dawodu, believing Swanson is past his prime. He thinks Dawodu is the better striker now with better durability, though he notes Dawodu's chin is questionable. James sees little path for Swanson to win, as he doesn't think Swanson can grapple or out-strike Dawodu. He mentions Swanson could land a knockout due to his unorthodox style, but overall favors Dawodu clearly.
Dawodu is a technical striker who uses combination striking and kicks. Swanson is 40 and on a 3-6 run over his last nine, with wins over sketchy competition. Dawodu should land the more impactful strikes and get the nod from judges. However, Swanson's unorthodox style could make it closer than the odds suggest.
Paul picks Cub Swanson but with low confidence. He thinks the line is accurate and would prefer Dawodu at a better price. He sees Cub having a puncher's chance and notes that if Dawodu fights at his usual low volume, Cub could outwork him and eke out a decision. However, he admits he's not confident and has other underdogs he'd rather bet.
The MMA Guru picks Hakeem Dawodu over Cub Swanson, citing Swanson's accumulated damage and small size for featherweight. He notes Dawodu's strength and clinch work, predicting he will hurt Swanson to the body with knees and get a finish in the third round. He references Swanson's past body-shot losses to Tatsuya Kawajiri and Max Holloway.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Martinez | 0 | 51 of 79 | 64% | 60 of 88 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Cub Swanson | 2 | 62 of 102 | 60% | 66 of 106 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 3:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Martinez | 0 | 31 of 50 | 62% | 38 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Cub Swanson | 1 | 33 of 59 | 55% | 35 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:16 | |
| 2 | Jonathan Martinez | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 22 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cub Swanson | 1 | 29 of 43 | 67% | 31 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Martinez | 51 of 79 | 64% | 10 of 35 | 9 of 10 | 32 of 34 | 48 of 73 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
| Cub Swanson | 62 of 102 | 60% | 40 of 77 | 15 of 18 | 7 of 7 | 37 of 64 | 12 of 14 | 13 of 24 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Martinez | 31 of 50 | 62% | 5 of 23 | 5 of 6 | 21 of 21 | 29 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Cub Swanson | 33 of 59 | 55% | 21 of 45 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 39 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 14 | |
| 2 | Jonathan Martinez | 20 of 29 | 68% | 5 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 13 | 19 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 29 of 43 | 67% | 19 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 10 |
Angelo leans Cub Swanson, citing his experience, fight IQ, and still-solid chin. He notes that Jonathan Martinez has holes in his game, particularly handling pressure, and that Cub can exploit that in a technical kickboxing match. However, he is not highly confident and calls it a tough pick, acknowledging Martinez's power and recent wins.
Big Brady picks Cub Swanson for the upset by first-round knockout. He notes that Swanson has looked phenomenal lately, has power and volume, while Martinez has a questionable chin (knocked down multiple times). He thinks Swanson's pressure and hard shots will be too much, but says he'll check the weigh-ins to see if Swanson looks drained from the weight cut. He calls it a super close fight.
Cody leans Martinez for the pick but is more confident in the under 2.5 rounds at +130. He notes Cub Swanson still fights with hands down and chin up, and while he has power, Martinez is faster and more technical. He expects violence in a small cage and thinks the fight ends early.
Connor picks Martinez, citing the age and weight cut concerns for Swanson. He notes that Martinez's range kicking game could cause problems for Swanson, and that Swanson's tendency to struggle against range strikers is a factor. He admits it's a coin flip but goes with the younger, established bantamweight.
Swanson is a live underdog at +165 due to his unorthodox striking and power, which could expose Martinez's chin. Martinez is a good striker with kicks and combinations, but he has shown he can be hurt. Swanson's experience and ability to crack opponents make this competitive. However, the weight cut to 135 pounds is a concern; the host wants to see how Swanson looks at weigh-ins before committing. Prediction is Swanson by knockout.
Paul is tempted by Cub Swanson as a live underdog, especially since the fight is at bantamweight, a new weight class for Swanson. He questions Martinez's chin and weight cut issues, noting Martinez has been dropped before and struggled at 135. He thinks Swanson's power and pace could break Martinez if it becomes a scrap.
The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez over his favorite fighter Cub Swanson, citing momentum and Martinez's age (28) as key factors. He notes that Swanson is moving down to bantamweight, which often leads to poor performances initially. He praises Martinez's leg kicks and slick striking, and predicts a body finish due to Swanson's weaker torso at the new weight.
Zane picks Swanson, reasoning that if he would pick Swanson at featherweight, he has to still pick him at bantamweight despite the weight cut concerns. He believes Swanson's aggression and ability to punish Martinez's poor defense on the back foot will be key. He acknowledges the risk but trusts Swanson's veteran savvy.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 2 of 19 | 10% | 5 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 2 of 19 | 10% | 5 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 18 of 30 | 60% | 16 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Darren Elkins | 2 of 19 | 10% | 2 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 18 of 30 | 60% | 16 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Darren Elkins | 2 of 19 | 10% | 2 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Darren Elkins, citing the constant threat of takedowns and grinding pressure. He believes Elkins can make the fight ugly and frustrate Swanson, who is the better all-around fighter but needs to keep it standing. Angelo notes that Elkins has power in his hands but his clear path is grappling. He placed a moneyline bet on Elkins because the odds were too good at +170, thinking it should be closer to a pick'em.
Big Brady picks Cub Swanson by decision, citing his striking advantage (higher volume, accuracy, defense) and improved takedown defense in recent fights. He notes Elkins' low striking accuracy and believes Swanson can keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Elkins' grappling but thinks Swanson's takedown defense has improved enough to avoid trouble.
Cody picks Swanson but doesn't like the -200 price. He thinks Swanson's superior footwork and striking technique will allow him to box up Elkins on the feet. He notes that Elkins needs takedowns to win, and Swanson's takedown defense (60% career) might be enough. Cody suggests taking Swanson by decision at +150 instead of the moneyline, as he believes Swanson is unlikely to finish Elkins.
Daniel Levi picks Cub Swanson but admits he is sketched out by Elkins's comeback ability. He believes Swanson will dominate the striking early, using his speed, kicks, and explosiveness. However, Levi worries that if Elkins gets top position or takes Swanson's back, he could submit him. He references Jeremy Stephens's blueprint of keeping the fight standing and busting Elkins up, which Swanson can follow. Levi expects Swanson to win a decision, possibly 30-27, but acknowledges the risk of Elkins pulling off a submission.
Jacob picks Cub Swanson, his favorite fighter, and is very confident. He argues that Swanson is the better all-around fighter and equally tough. Jacob believes Swanson will dominate the fight, noting that Swanson looked great in his last win and that Elkins' wins come from out-toughing opponents, but nobody out-toughs Swanson. He thinks the odds are fair and that Swanson will win.
The host picks Swanson by KO, citing the striking disparity and Elkins' declining reactions. He believes Swanson will tee off on Elkins and finish him. He likes the KO prop at +250 and also parlayed Swanson moneyline with Barcelos.
Paul is leaning towards Elkins as a dog, citing Elkins's incredible durability and never-quit attitude. He thinks Swanson may start fast but could fade, and Elkins's pressure and wrestling could take over. Paul plans to bet Elkins live if Swanson slows down, expecting a better number than +170. He calls it a 'dogger pass' situation pre-fight.
The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson to win by 29-28 decision. He notes Swanson has improved his grappling defense significantly, as shown in the second Edgar fight where he wasn't taken down. He thinks Swanson's stand-up advantage will be key and he won't gas out like other Elkins opponents. He expects a scrappy war but Swanson's veteran savvy will carry him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giga Chikadze | 1 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giga Chikadze | 1 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giga Chikadze | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Cub Swanson | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giga Chikadze | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Cub Swanson | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Giga Chikadze to win a close decision, but he is hesitant and hates the line. He acknowledges Chikadze's improvements, especially in takedown defense and striking output, as seen in the Morales fight. However, he notes that Swanson is durable and on a roll, and that Chikadze has been taken down in the past. Brady thinks the line should be closer and that Swanson could be live if he wrestles more, but he ultimately goes with Chikadze's flashier strikes.
Cody sees Cub Swanson as a live underdog with many variables in his favor: savvy veteran experience, ground game advantage, and a history of performing well as an underdog. He notes that Swanson has a BJJ black belt and wrestling advantage, and that Giga has not faced a grappler who actually uses their ground game. However, he is concerned that Giga is tall for the division and a tricky striker, and that Swanson needs to use his wrestling to win. He labels this a 'dogger pass' situation and mentions DraftKings still has +160 available.
Daniel Levi picks Giga Chikadze to win, emphasizing that Chikadze is a superior striker with better range and footwork. He believes Cub Swanson's style of swinging big hooks plays into Chikadze's straight shots down the middle. Levi also notes that Swanson's recent win over Pineda is overrated and that Chikadze's cardio held up in his last fight.
The host picks Giga Chikadze by decision, citing his striking advantage and reach. He expects Giga to fight safe and outpoint Swanson, who may look for takedowns. He notes that Swanson is a veteran but believes Giga's kicking game will be too much.
Paul does not have a strong lean on this fight. He notes that Giga has been given favorable matchups and that Swanson has the ground game advantage, but he is not confident enough to make a pick. He mentions that the action is coming in on Swanson and that he can understand why, but he doesn't commit to a side.
The MMA Guru picks Giga Chikadze over Cub Swanson, citing Chikadze's size advantage, reach, and improving MMA skills. He notes that Swanson is a natural bantamweight and took damage in his last fight against Daniel Pineda. He predicts Chikadze will chop at Swanson's legs and jab his way to a 30-27 unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 2 | 46 of 66 | 69% | 51 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 40 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 1 | 31 of 47 | 65% | 34 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 35 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Cub Swanson | 1 | 15 of 19 | 78% | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 46 of 66 | 69% | 35 of 51 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 37 of 54 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 9 |
| Daniel Pineda | 21 of 45 | 46% | 9 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 13 | 19 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 31 of 47 | 65% | 23 of 36 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 23 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 8 |
| Daniel Pineda | 16 of 30 | 53% | 6 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 10 | 14 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cub Swanson | 15 of 19 | 78% | 12 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Daniel Pineda | 5 of 15 | 33% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Daniel Pineda to win by first-round submission. He highlights Pineda's 100% finish rate (27 wins all finishes) and Swanson's history of being submitted six times. He likes Pineda's recent form and believes he is in his prime, while Swanson is past his prime and coming off injury. He recommends betting Pineda inside the distance at +140.
Daniel is impressed with Pineda's resurgence, noting his 29 finishes and recent dominant performances. He questions Cub Swanson's level of competition and thinks Swanson is on his way out. He predicts Pineda will catch Cub with a submission, possibly his 20th submission win.
Pineda's wrestling and top pressure will be a nightmare for Swanson, who has struggled with grapplers. Pineda should be able to take Swanson down repeatedly and finish him via ground and pound or submission. Swanson's recent losses have come via submission, and Pineda's style matches up well. The under 2.5 rounds is a good prop.
The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson, despite the long layoff due to injury. He believes Swanson's experience against good jiu-jitsu guys and his stand-up will be the difference. He expects Swanson to keep the fight standing and win a unanimous decision. He dismisses Daniel Pineda's wins as unimpressive and notes Pineda's past PED issues.
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