UFC 178: Johnson vs. Cariaso · Sep 27, 2014 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 178: Johnson vs. Cariaso Next Fight
Age 38
Height 5' 9"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 37
Height 5' 9"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Conor McGregor
5.32 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
4.66 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.67 TD Avg
55.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Dustin Poirier
5.24 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
4.57 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
1.15 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Conor McGregor - Fight History
SCHED vs Max Holloway
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Max Holloway

AJ picks Max Holloway to win, citing McGregor's five-year layoff, age (37), and the fact that Holloway is in-season and has superior cardio and durability. He believes McGregor will fade after the first round and that Holloway's volume and body work will lead to a late stoppage. AJ also notes that McGregor's power is his only path, but Holloway's mobility and chin make that unlikely.

Holloway by KO at -110; Holloway KO in rounds 2-3; McGregor at +215 underdog value mentioned but not picked
"I think Max Holloway is going to avenge that loss by KO. Not just a simple decision, but a violent victory."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Max Holloway

AJ thinks Conor McGregor's best chance is early in the first two rounds, but expects Max Holloway to be powerful at welterweight and doubts McGregor's timing after the layoff. He believes Holloway is more likely to win as the fight continues, and suggests Holloway by KO under 3.5 rounds at +125. He also notes that if McGregor wins, it would likely be a KO in round one or two.

Holloway by KO under 3.5 rounds +125; McGregor KO round 1 or 2 +375; McGregor KO rounds 1 or 2 +500; Holloway KO rounds 3 and 4 +450; fight goes distance +350
"I think Conor McGregor's best chance to win this fight is early first two rounds. Max Holloway live throughout. I mean, [ __ ] welterweight. I think Max Holloway is going to be pretty powerful."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Max Holloway

AJ picks Max Holloway over Conor McGregor, citing McGregor's long layoff, partying, and injury history. He believes Holloway's activity, durability, and cardio will be decisive, and expects a later-stage TKO as McGregor fades. AJ notes that McGregor's best performances were at lower weights and that his 170-pound cardio has been questionable.

Holloway wins under 4.5 rounds minus 110; Holloway KO minus 130; Holloway sub plus 1000; third round KO for Holloway
"I think we're going to see McGregor lose, guys. Third round KO for Holloway is good."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Max Holloway

AJ acknowledges the temptation to pick McGregor due to his aura and recent upsets, but ultimately sides with Holloway. He notes Holloway's proven chin at 170 and that he only loses when held down all fight, while McGregor has been out for over 4 years. He believes Holloway's durability and activity give him the edge.

"If McGregor wins, it would just be history... But no, I don't think he does."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Max Holloway

AJ picks Max Holloway by knockout in the second or third round. He believes Holloway's pace, cardio, and combination punching will overwhelm McGregor, who is returning after a five-year layoff and a serious leg injury. He notes Holloway's recent wins over top competition and expects McGregor to fade after the first round.

second round knockout
"Max Holloway for the knockout win takes out the M in McGregor's return and does it so in style."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

AJ picks Max Holloway to win, likely by knockout. He notes Holloway is minus 210 and thinks McGregor's long layoff makes a decision win unlikely. He suggests Holloway by KO in rounds 2 or 3 as prop bets, but doesn't love the main event betting lines overall.

Holloway by KO minus 130, Holloway KO round 2 plus 625, Holloway KO round 3 plus 625, Holloway by KO over 1.5 rounds plus 225, McGregor by KO plus 270, McGregor KO round 1 plus 550, McGregor KO round 2 plus 10000
"My pick is Max Holloway. I don't know if the MAC is really back."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Angelo believes Max Holloway is better everywhere: striking, grappling, cardio, fight IQ. He notes Conor is old, slow, rusty, and hasn't fought in 5 years, with no cardio even in his prime. He expects Holloway to finish McGregor.

"Max wins this fight. He probably finishes Connor."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Angelo picks Max Holloway confidently, stating Conor McGregor has no chance. He cites McGregor's five-year layoff, age (38), loss of speed and timing, and never having good cardio. He compares McGregor's leg break to Anderson Silva and Chris Weidman's similar injuries leading to decline. He believes Holloway will respect McGregor early but take over and finish him.

"I genuinely do not think Conor McGregor has a chance in hell. He is coming off a five-year layoff. He is 38 years old."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2026 (14 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Big Brady picks Max Holloway to win by second-round knockout. He is surprised by the betting line and money coming in on McGregor, citing McGregor's one win in nine years and five-year layoff. He acknowledges McGregor's early power but believes Holloway's volume and pressure will break him. He thinks Holloway will finish McGregor in the second round.

Max Holloway second round KO
"I'm going Holloway here. I'm going Max Holloway. Second round KO."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 30, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Big Brady is leaning towards Max Holloway but is very hesitant due to the suspicious line movement and McGregor's early KO threat. He notes Holloway's elite durability and cardio, but acknowledges his chin was cracked by Topuria. He gives McGregor a 25% chance, mostly via round 1 KO, and is waiting to see if Holloway's odds drop further before betting.

McGregor KO1 opened at +750, now +650; fight doesn't go to decision -450; Holloway sub +1100 to +1200; McGregor by split decision astronomical odds
"I don't know what to do with this fight, man. I don't know. I don't know if I might not even bet on this fight cuz something stinks."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Max Holloway

Big Brady is heavily backing Max Holloway, taking the -5.5 point spread at -150 for 3 units. He believes Conor McGregor's five-year layoff, leg injury, and partying lifestyle leave him with only a couple minutes of explosiveness. He expects Holloway to drown McGregor in deep waters and finish him in rounds 2-3, as McGregor cannot win more than one round. He also has 5 units on the fight not going to decision across two parlays, calling a McGregor decision a 'rigged outcome.'

Max Holloway -5.5 point spread (-150, 3 units); fight doesn't go to decision (parlayed, 5 units total); predicts Holloway finishes in rounds 2-3
"I'm going Holloway minus 5.5 point spread. I'm going the fight doesn't go to decision in two different parlays."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Big Brady picks Max Holloway, citing Conor McGregor's five-year layoff, injury, and one win in the last decade. He notes Holloway's durability (most significant strikes absorbed) and believes McGregor's only chance is an early KO, but Holloway will weather the storm and finish him in rounds 2-4. He doubts McGregor has 15 good minutes in him.

Holloway inside the distance; Holloway -5.5 point spread; under 3.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision; McGregor KO1 (+850)
"I'm taking Max Holloway here... I thought Holloway would be a much bigger favorite... I like Holloway inside the distance."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Cody picks Max Holloway, emphasizing McGregor's inactivity, age (38), leg injury, and lack of durability. He believes Holloway's volume, cardio, and recent elite competition give him a clear edge. He expects Holloway to win by TKO and thinks the fight doesn't go the distance.

Probably Max Holloway by TKO; under if fight doesn't go the distance
"Probably Max Holloway by TKO. probably under if fight doesn't go the distance, but I couldn't. It's Max fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 30, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Daniel Levi picks Max Holloway to finish Conor McGregor, citing McGregor's five-year layoff, leg break, and history of fading in fights. He notes that McGregor's best chance is an early knockout, but Holloway's durability and volume will overwhelm him as the fight progresses. Levi references Holloway's slow starts but believes he can weather the early storm and take over.

Max Holloway by finish (late first, early second, or early third round)
"I think that Max Holloway is going to come out here and stop the great Conor McGregor."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Jacob picks Conor McGregor for sentimental reasons, acknowledging it's unlikely. He believes McGregor still has power and accuracy, and that Holloway's chin has shown cracks. He thinks if McGregor lands his left hand early, he could knock Holloway out. However, he admits McGregor's cardio is a major issue and that Holloway should win. He says to pick Max but bet Max, but he's sticking with his boy.

"I'm [ __ ] picking Connor because of [ __ ] Connor, man. Like [ __ ] it. I don't give a [ __ ] Obviously pick Max, bet Max. do what you ever got to do. But I'm gonna …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Lucrative James picks Max Holloway to win via knockout, likely in rounds 2 or 3. He acknowledges Conor McGregor's puncher's chance early but believes Holloway's durability, cardio, and five-round experience will overwhelm McGregor, who has been inactive and suffered a severe leg injury. He notes that McGregor's power fades after round one and that Holloway has faced much tougher competition recently.

Max Holloway by KO, inside the distance, rounds 2-3
"My official prediction is that Max Holloway smokes Conor McGregor here. My official prediction is that Max Holloway wins this fight via knockout. My official prediction is that it comes within the first three rounds, you know, probably rounds two …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Max Holloway

The host is confident in Holloway winning by TKO, citing McGregor's long layoff, ring rust, likely decline in speed, and the damage he has done to his body. He expects Holloway's volume and pressure to drown McGregor in the middle rounds, and recommends waiting for a better line on Holloway as McGregor money comes in.

Holloway by TKO, round props (rounds 2-4)
"I'm going to go Max Holloway. I think he gets the TKO here over McGregor."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

The host recalls that McGregor used grappling to edge out the first fight in 2013, but notes Holloway has since transcended to a much higher level. He expects Holloway's high pace, volume, and pressure to drown McGregor, leading to a second, third, or fourth round TKO stoppage.

Holloway by TKO in rounds 2-4
"I expect him to utilize his high-pace, high-volume, high-pressure to drown Conor and eventually lead to a second, third, or fourth round TKO stoppage for Max Holloway."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Paul picks Max Holloway citing activity, durability, and McGregor's long layoff and distractions. He notes Holloway's volume and cardio advantages, and that McGregor's best days are behind him. He mentions he already placed a small bet on Holloway and expects the line to move further.

Already placed a small bet on Holloway at current odds; expects line to move to -150
"I actually have Max Holloway in one part. just getting my toe wet just in case the the market doesn't continue to uh to go down."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway to win by TKO in the third or fourth round. He doubts McGregor's ability to return after five years off and believes Holloway's improved striking and cardio will be decisive. He predicts McGregor will start strong but fade, and Holloway will put him away with body shots and combinations against the cage.

TKO in third or fourth round; McGregor opens with spinning back kick to body
"I'm picking Holloway by TKO in the later rounds. It hurts me to say that, okay, it hurts me to say that, but I am going to go with Max Holloway getting this one done."
LOSS vs Dustin Poirier
TKO (doctor stoppage) R1 5:00 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Poirier 0 36 of 66 54% 36 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:18
Conor McGregor 0 27 of 38 71% 43 of 54 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Poirier 0 36 of 66 54% 36 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:18
Conor McGregor 0 27 of 38 71% 43 of 54 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Poirier 36 of 66 54% 35 of 62 0 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 20 0 of 0 28 of 46
Conor McGregor 27 of 38 71% 13 of 21 6 of 9 8 of 8 17 of 26 1 of 1 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Poirier 36 of 66 54% 35 of 62 0 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 20 0 of 0 28 of 46
Conor McGregor 27 of 38 71% 13 of 21 6 of 9 8 of 8 17 of 26 1 of 1 9 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Angelo flips his pick from the last fight, now favoring Conor. He notes that in the first fight, Conor landed everything with power and had Dustin in trouble multiple times, but didn't capitalize due to pacing. He believes Conor will have a plan for the leg kicks this time and will get the job done. He also placed a bet on Conor by KO/TKO for plus odds.

Conor by KO/TKO at plus odds
"I think conor wins the i think he wins this fight i'm flipping my pick from the last go-around"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Big Brady picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Conor has the X-factor power, being the hardest hitter pound-for-pound, and that Poirier absorbs a lot of strikes (4.17 per minute). He expects Conor to make adjustments, stuff takedowns, check leg kicks, and keep the fight at range. He acknowledges Poirier's durability but believes Conor will land a knockout.

first round knockout
"i'm gonna say conor mcgregor does get a first round knockout here against dustin poirier"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Cody picks Poirier based on Conor's fading cardio after the first round, Poirier's durability and leg kicks, and the American Top Team camp. He notes Conor's power early but expects Poirier to take over late. He hasn't bet yet, waiting to see how the press conferences affect Poirier's mindset.

264 to 1 odds on first round KO via DraftKings promo; suggests live betting Poirier after round 1
"my pick for the purposes of the show right now is dustin poirier i haven't put any money on i want to see how the press conferences go"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to win the trilogy. He emphasizes Poirier's superior cardio, output, and durability, noting that Poirier has the most knockouts in UFC lightweight history and has shown he can overcome adversity. He points out that since 2016, Poirier is 7-1 while McGregor is 1-3, and that McGregor struggles in deep waters and has diminishing durability. He predicts a submission win for Poirier, citing the check right hook, calf kicks, takedowns, and clinch work as key factors.

Poirier by submission
"i'm going with dustin poury i'm gonna say this time by submission"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Jacob initially favored Dustin but switched to Conor after rewatching the first fight. He notes Conor landed everything in round one but paced himself too much. He thinks Conor will blitz early to avoid calf kicks and finish in the first round. He also mentions a possible staph infection on Conor's elbow, which could affect cardio and push Conor to an early finish.

Conor wins in round 1
"i think conor wins this fight um so i've gone all the way back and i think conor does it i think he does in the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

I'm going with Poirier here, but I have no real confidence. I think Poirier's durability and cardio have improved at 155, and he can eat McGregor's shots now. McGregor might have a new game plan, but I expect Poirier to take over in the later rounds and finish him, probably in the third or fourth round. I'm not betting this fight myself, but I like Poirier inside the distance and the fight not going to decision.

under 3.5 rounds, under 4.5 rounds, fight doesn't go to decision, Poirier inside the distance, Poirier round 3, Poirier round 4, Poirier round 5
"i'm going to ultimately be on the poirier side here... i think poirier has the confidence now... and really start to put on mcgregor himself and then eventually finish him late in this fight probably in the third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Paul picks Poirier, citing Conor's durability issues and long layoffs. He notes Conor's power early but believes Poirier's durability and cardio will prevail. He mentions the distraction of Conor's trash talk and the Colby Covington sparring video, but still favors Poirier.

suggests betting Poirier live after the first round
"i'm not i wouldn't rule mcgregor out but we got to go party that would be the logical pick especially at this price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Dustin Poirier

The Guru predicts Poirier will win by TKO in the third round. He expects McGregor to start strong, winning the first two rounds with good striking and body work, but Poirier's calf kicks and clinch work will wear McGregor down. By the third round, McGregor will fatigue, and Poirier will land a big elbow and follow-up shots to finish him against the cage. The Guru notes McGregor will have a more impressive performance than their first fight but the outcome will be the same.

Poirier wins by TKO in round 3
"poirier gets it done but i'm praying for mcgregor to win but i think poirier's gonna get this one done it'll be a more impressive performance by mcgregor but the inevitable outcome will be the same"
LOSS vs Dustin Poirier
TKO (punches) R2 2:32 · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 · Jan 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Poirier 1 48 of 91 52% 53 of 98 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:42
Conor McGregor 0 29 of 66 43% 52 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Poirier 0 17 of 37 45% 22 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:40
Conor McGregor 0 15 of 34 44% 38 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:07
2 Dustin Poirier 1 31 of 54 57% 31 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Conor McGregor 0 14 of 32 43% 14 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Poirier 48 of 91 52% 30 of 69 0 of 1 18 of 21 46 of 89 0 of 0 2 of 2
Conor McGregor 29 of 66 43% 23 of 60 4 of 4 2 of 2 27 of 63 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Poirier 17 of 37 45% 8 of 26 0 of 0 9 of 11 17 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Conor McGregor 15 of 34 44% 12 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dustin Poirier 31 of 54 57% 22 of 43 0 of 1 9 of 10 29 of 52 0 of 0 2 of 2
Conor McGregor 14 of 32 43% 11 of 29 1 of 1 2 of 2 14 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Big Brady picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round knockout, similar to their first fight. He notes McGregor's power and accuracy as key advantages, and believes Poirier's cardio won't be a factor because the fight won't go deep. He acknowledges Poirier could be a live dog but ultimately sides with McGregor's striking superiority.

first round knockout
"i think conor mcgregor is going to do the same thing he did in their last fight i don't think it's going to be as early but i do think he's going to knock out dustin poirier"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Daniel Levi picks Conor McGregor to win early, citing McGregor's devastating power and ability to finish fights in the first round. He acknowledges Poirier's improved chin at lightweight and his path to victory if he survives the early storm, but believes McGregor's power is too much. Levi expresses personal rooting interest for Poirier but makes a logical pick for McGregor.

McGregor by early finish
"i'm gonna have to go with mcgregor here to get it done early unfortunately"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

McGregor has the precision and power to replicate his first-round knockout from their first fight. Poirier is durable but has been knocked down by lesser power. McGregor's takedown defense is solid, and he should be able to keep the fight on the feet. Poirier's cardio advantage may not matter if McGregor lands early. I see McGregor winning by first-round KO.

McGregor in round 1 (+175), McGregor in round 2 (+350), under 2.5 rounds (-175)
"I'll go with McGregor to win this fight by first round KO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

The MMA Guru believes Conor McGregor's improved boxing, especially his left hand, will be too much for Dustin Poirier. He notes that Poirier has not thrown many kicks since his hip surgery and will rely on boxing, which plays into McGregor's strengths. He predicts McGregor will land a big left hand in the first round, knocking Poirier out cold around the four-minute mark, similar to the Michael Johnson KO. He dismisses the idea of a 60-second KO but is confident McGregor wins.

KO in first round, around 4-minute mark
"mcgregor's gonna be out landing poirier poirier is gonna get frustrated with losing the round he's gonna come forward with with a big exchange and when he does that he's gonna get ko'd the same way he did against michael …"
TKO (head kick and punches) R1 0:40 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Conor McGregor 1 19 of 26 73% 20 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Donald Cerrone 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Conor McGregor 1 19 of 26 73% 20 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Donald Cerrone 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Conor McGregor 19 of 26 73% 19 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 3 of 3 13 of 16
Donald Cerrone 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Conor McGregor 19 of 26 73% 19 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 3 of 3 13 of 16
Donald Cerrone 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Conor McGregor vs. Donald Cerrone

Round 1
We have reached the welterweight headliner, as the first simultaneous two-division champ in company history in McGregor (21-4, 9-2 UFC) comes to blows with a man who holds a plethora of UFC records in "Cowboy" Cerrone (36-13, 1 NC; 23-10 UFC). These two have combined for 46 stoppages in their illustrious careers. Drawing the assignment for this marquee matchup is referee Herb Dean, the two men touch gloves, and it's on! McGregor leaps forward with a left hand immediately, and Cerrone clinches up quickly. A few shoulder strikes from McGregor bloody the nose up of Cerrone, and McGregor fires a fierce head kick that nails Cerrone; "Cowboy" is wobbled. Sensing he is hurt, McGregor charges forward and leaps in the air with a flying knee. Cerrone blocks it, but McGregor starts to swing with reckless abandon. Cerrone turtles up and falls over in pain, while "Notorious" rains down punches. Dean steps in to take a close look at the action, but Cerrone is unable to intelligently defend himself. McGregor is relentless, swarming "Cowboy" with punch after punch until Dean has to call the fight. The fight ending in under a minute, McGregor jumps on the top of the cage to celebrate. No post-fight shenanigans or antics ensue, and the two men embrace after the fight, and McGregor uses the opportunity on the microphone to celebrate his achievements and advertise his whiskey. Additionally, McGregor remarks that he would like to stay at welterweight and calls out every fighter in the division, not to mention Paul Felder in the commentary desk.

The Official Result
Conor McGregor def. Donald Cerrone R1 0:40 via TKO (Punches)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Daniel picks Conor McGregor to win by knockout, likely in the first round. He notes that McGregor's left hand is a huge factor and that Cerrone has historically folded under big lights. However, he questions McGregor's motivation and fatigue issues, but believes this is a tune-up fight for McGregor.

first round knockout
"I think McGregor is gonna come in fresh... I think he gets the win by knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

The host picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round KO, citing McGregor's range, speed, in-and-out movement, and left hand as key advantages. He believes Cerrone will struggle to deal with these attributes and that McGregor will set up a trap and land a clean left hand. However, he notes that if Cerrone's odds reach +300, he might place a small bet on Cerrone due to value, but his official prediction remains McGregor by first-round KO.

If Cerrone hits +300, might take a bet on Cerrone; under 1.5 rounds at +105 considered; McGregor by KO at -210 considered too steep; official pick is McGregor by first-round KO.
"my official pick'em my prediction is gonna be cornered by first round KO"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2020 (12 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

The host strongly favors Conor McGregor, citing his first-round focus and accuracy against Donald Cerrone's lack of head movement and slow starts. He notes Cerrone's recent KO loss to Justin Gaethje and the short turnaround (4 months), which raises chin concerns. He believes McGregor's takedown defense is underrated and that Cerrone's wrestling won't be effective. He predicts a first-round KO by McGregor.

first round KO
"I think Conor McGregor gets it done in the first round by KO viciously viciously"
Submission (neck crank) R4 3:03 · UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · Oct 06, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 70 of 119 58% 104 of 157 3 of 7 42% 1 0 12:14
Conor McGregor 0 51 of 81 62% 96 of 128 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 7 of 9 77% 18 of 21 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:08
Conor McGregor 0 6 of 7 85% 39 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 41 of 60 68% 58 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:22
Conor McGregor 0 5 of 13 38% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 15 of 37 40% 17 of 39 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:47
Conor McGregor 0 34 of 52 65% 44 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Khabib Nurmagomedov 0 7 of 13 53% 11 of 19 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:57
Conor McGregor 0 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khabib Nurmagomedov 70 of 119 58% 58 of 105 11 of 13 1 of 1 24 of 53 1 of 3 45 of 63
Conor McGregor 51 of 81 62% 34 of 60 16 of 19 1 of 2 35 of 65 10 of 10 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khabib Nurmagomedov 7 of 9 77% 7 of 8 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 8
Conor McGregor 6 of 7 85% 6 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 5
2 Khabib Nurmagomedov 41 of 60 68% 33 of 52 8 of 8 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 36 of 51
Conor McGregor 5 of 13 38% 3 of 10 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Khabib Nurmagomedov 15 of 37 40% 12 of 33 2 of 3 1 of 1 14 of 34 1 of 3 0 of 0
Conor McGregor 34 of 52 65% 22 of 39 12 of 13 0 of 0 25 of 43 9 of 9 0 of 0
4 Khabib Nurmagomedov 7 of 13 53% 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 4
Conor McGregor 6 of 9 66% 3 of 5 2 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Lightweight Title Fight: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Conor McGregor

Round 1
Referee Herb Dean will oversee tonight’s lightweight championship main event, with judges Derek Cleary, Sal D’Amato and Junichiro Kamijo scoring the bout should it complete the scheduled five rounds. The fighters are kept a few feet apart during final instructions, and they opt not to touch gloves. McGregor takes the center of the cage at the start and lobs a long left hand at Nurmagomedov, who circles to McGregor’s right around the outside. Nurmagomedov shoots a long single-leg, but McGregor sprawls, then stands and balances on one foot as “The Eagle” tries to spin him down. Nurmagomedov’s next effort yields a takedown, and plants McGregor at the base of the fence, triangling the Irishman’s legs to keep him grounded. Nurmagomedov complains that McGregor is grabbing his shorts, and referee Dean appears to swat McGregor’s hands away. Halfway through the round, Nurmagomedov remains on top, controlling McGregor’s leg and burying his head under the challenger’s chin. McGregor tries to post and stand, but Nurmagomedov still has control of his legs. McGregor frees his legs and tries butterfly guard; Nurmagomedov immediately passes to half guard and puts heavy pressure on McGregor’s torso. McGregor remains flat on his back in the final minute, trying to punch and palm strike but having little room to do so. Nurmagomedov postures up just before the horn to land a pair of punches, but McGregor saunters back to his corner with a smile on his face.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 2
McGregor takes the center again and fires a few kicks at Nurmagomedov, then narrowly misses with a leaping knee. Nurmagomedov comes back to the middle and floors McGregor with a missile right hand. McGregor gets back on unsteady legs and engages in a brief firefight before Nurmagomedov opts to double-leg and plow “The Notorious” to the floor. McGregor is flattened out, his right side flush to the fence as Nurmagomedov passes to side control. Nurmagomedov has an arm-triangle framed up, but he abandons it in favor of full mount. McGregor scrambles to recover full guard, but now Nurmagomedov is posturing up to land right hands to the body, a few left hands to the face. McGregor is eating some hard shots in between chatting with Nurmagomedov, who’s turning up the volume on his ground-and-pound toward the middle of the frame. Nurmagomedov stands over McGregor and bombs him with punches, both hands falling on the challenger’s face. Nurmagomedov can’t produce a finish, so he comes back to the ground, in side control on McGregor’s right side. Nurmagomedov leans across the body to try a kimura on McGregor’s left arm, but the fence gives him little room to work. McGregor sits up against the wall and leaves his neck exposed; Nurmagomedov gets a headlock but releases as McGregor stands up, now with 40 seconds on the clock. Nurmagomedov keeps him glued to the fence, with McGregor landing a few elbows to the side of the champion’s head in the closing seconds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round 10-8 Nurmagomedov
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-8 Nurmagomedov
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-8 Nurmagomedov

Round 3
McGregor comes at Nurmagomedov with uppercuts to the start the round, mixing up his punches to the body and head with middling success. Nurmagomedov snaps off a jab, deflects a hard left hand, but he’s not giving McGregor much to worry about in terms of offense. The challenger continues to press forward, now sprawls on a shot and stands Nurmagomedov back up. McGregor lands a clinch elbow, but Nurmagomedov pushes him away and socks him with a hard right. Two minutes in, Nurmagomedov initiates a clinch on the fence; this time, McGregor peels the Russian’s hands away and walks him back to the middle of the cage. Nurmagomedov doubles up on a jab; McGregor answers with a body blow. McGregor shrugs off another clinch, but Nurmagomedov comes back to drive him against the fence. McGregor climbs back up from a brief takedown as Nurmagomedov keeps him pinned to the wall with 60 seconds on the clock. With his hands being controlled, McGregor’s only option in this position is to throw knees, but he has little space to do so

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 McGregor

Round 4
McGregor takes the center of the cage and keeps Nurmagomedov at a distance with long jabs and front kicks to the body. After a minute of this, however, Nurmagomedov bulldozes his way forward and plants McGregor on the ground at the foot of the fence. McGregor gets to his feet and puts both hands on the ground, but Nurmagomedov rips him away from the wall and tries to take the challenger’s back. McGregor rolls over, leaving Nurmagomedov in a three-quarter mount with McGregor trapping his right foot. Nurmagomedov abandons another arm-triangle choke setup but remains in full mount at the halfway point of the round. After eating a few solid left hands, McGregor rolls over, giving up his back. Within seconds, Nurmagomedov has his right arm wrapped around the Irishman’s jaw; seconds later, McGregor is tapping out.
What ensues is chaos. Nurmagomedov initially has words for McGregor, failing to stand up immediately after referee Dean stops the fight. The champion then climbs out of the cage and rushes into the crowd, apparently attacking someone from the McGregor camp who was sitting cageside. Meanwhile, inside the cage, one of Nurmagomedov’s cornermen -- Zubaira Tukhugov, according to UFC announcer Jon Anik -- reportedly attacked and landed a right hand on Conor McGregor. McGregor is escorted backstage by security and commissioners, while Nurmagomedov remains in the cage, demanding to have his hand raised.
“This is what I believe,” UFC President Dana White tells him. “If I put this belt on you, everybody’s gonna start throwing s--t into the Octagon.”
Moments later, Nurmagomedov is whisked backstage, and Bruce Buffer reads the official decision in an empty cage.

The Official Result
Khabib Nurmagomedov def. Conor McGregor via Submission (Neck Crank) R4 3:03
WIN vs Eddie Alvarez
TKO (punches) R2 3:04 · UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor · Nov 12, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Conor McGregor 0 9 of 41 21% 12 of 46 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:57
Eddie Alvarez 3 32 of 84 38% 40 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Conor McGregor 0 6 of 29 20% 6 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Eddie Alvarez 2 18 of 57 31% 20 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:52
2 Conor McGregor 0 3 of 12 25% 6 of 17 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:57
Eddie Alvarez 1 14 of 27 51% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Conor McGregor 9 of 41 21% 2 of 27 6 of 10 1 of 4 9 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Eddie Alvarez 32 of 84 38% 24 of 71 7 of 11 1 of 2 24 of 67 3 of 5 5 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Conor McGregor 6 of 29 20% 1 of 18 4 of 7 1 of 4 6 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Eddie Alvarez 18 of 57 31% 15 of 51 3 of 6 0 of 0 13 of 45 1 of 2 4 of 10
2 Conor McGregor 3 of 12 25% 1 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Eddie Alvarez 14 of 27 51% 9 of 20 4 of 5 1 of 2 11 of 22 2 of 3 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Lightweight Title Fight: Conor McGregor vs. Eddie Alvarez

Round 1
Veteran official “Big” John McCarthy is the referee for tonight’s 155-pound title fight, with judges Sal D’Amato, Chris Lee and Jeff Mullen scoring the bout. Alvarez opens with a few hard chops to McGregor’s extended lead leg, while the challenger works from the center, pushing out toward Alvarez near the fence. Alvarez comes rushing inside with sloppy punches and gets clipped on the temple by McGregor’s counter left. The champion hits the deck for a second but scrambles back to his feet before McGregor can capitalize on the knockdown. Alvarez wants to tie up, gets shoved away by the Irishman. Alvarez rushes inside once more, and again he’s made to pay by McGregor’s left hand. McGregor floors Alvarez for the third time, now up against the fence, but Alvarez rolls up underneath and survives by clinging to McGregor’s legs. McGregor stacks him up but can’t finish the job before Alvarez is able to stand and dash away. McGregor is giving Alvarez no room, keeping him near to the fence and shutting down the American’s attempt at a double-leg. Alvarez digs into McGregor’s body with a punch and a front kick in the closing seconds of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-8 McGregor
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-8 McGregor
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 McGregor

Round 2
McGregor finds a home for his left hand again early in round two; he’s also able to shut down another high double-leg attempt from Alvarez, who’s struggling to find a way into this fight. McGregor taunts the champion by standing in front of Alvarez with his hands behind his back. Alvarez takes some big swings but can’t find the mark, and instead he winds up pressing McGregor against the wall with an underhook. They hit the midway point of the round before they separate. When they do, McGregor steps forward and floors Alvarez with a left hand behind the ear and a follow-up right hook. Alvarez drops to his back in a daze, and referee McCarthy rushes in to rescue him from any further damage.

The Official Result
Conor McGregor def. Eddie Alvarez via TKO (Punches) R2 3:04
WIN vs Nate Diaz
Decision (majority) (48–47, 47–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · Aug 20, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Conor McGregor 0 166 of 343 48% 252 of 435 1 of 7 14% 0 0 5:50
Nate Diaz 3 164 of 286 57% 197 of 322 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Conor McGregor 0 25 of 73 34% 25 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Diaz 1 34 of 58 58% 34 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Conor McGregor 0 37 of 76 48% 51 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Nate Diaz 2 34 of 70 48% 36 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
3 Conor McGregor 0 49 of 87 56% 79 of 117 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:31
Nate Diaz 0 26 of 45 57% 37 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
4 Conor McGregor 0 36 of 63 57% 48 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:07
Nate Diaz 0 46 of 76 60% 56 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
5 Conor McGregor 0 19 of 44 43% 49 of 77 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:42
Nate Diaz 0 24 of 37 64% 34 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Conor McGregor 166 of 343 48% 107 of 256 50 of 71 9 of 16 88 of 227 77 of 112 1 of 4
Nate Diaz 164 of 286 57% 98 of 212 26 of 29 40 of 45 137 of 253 27 of 32 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Conor McGregor 25 of 73 34% 11 of 49 6 of 11 8 of 13 25 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Diaz 34 of 58 58% 14 of 35 3 of 4 17 of 19 34 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Conor McGregor 37 of 76 48% 22 of 58 14 of 16 1 of 2 24 of 54 13 of 21 0 of 1
Nate Diaz 34 of 70 48% 19 of 54 5 of 5 10 of 11 31 of 67 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Conor McGregor 49 of 87 56% 40 of 72 9 of 15 0 of 0 18 of 42 31 of 45 0 of 0
Nate Diaz 26 of 45 57% 17 of 35 4 of 4 5 of 6 22 of 41 4 of 4 0 of 0
4 Conor McGregor 36 of 63 57% 22 of 45 14 of 18 0 of 0 17 of 36 19 of 27 0 of 0
Nate Diaz 46 of 76 60% 30 of 59 11 of 12 5 of 5 33 of 58 13 of 17 0 of 1
5 Conor McGregor 19 of 44 43% 12 of 32 7 of 11 0 of 1 4 of 22 14 of 19 1 of 3
Nate Diaz 24 of 37 64% 18 of 29 3 of 4 3 of 4 17 of 29 7 of 8 0 of 0
LOSS vs Nate Diaz
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:09 · UFC 196: McGregor vs. Diaz · Mar 05, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Diaz 0 61 of 140 43% 66 of 145 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:39
Conor McGregor 0 77 of 152 50% 89 of 169 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Diaz 0 28 of 74 37% 32 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:35
Conor McGregor 0 23 of 62 37% 26 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:25
2 Nate Diaz 0 33 of 66 50% 34 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Conor McGregor 0 54 of 90 60% 63 of 101 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Diaz 61 of 140 43% 47 of 117 7 of 11 7 of 12 56 of 133 3 of 4 2 of 3
Conor McGregor 77 of 152 50% 65 of 131 9 of 13 3 of 8 62 of 133 10 of 12 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Diaz 28 of 74 37% 18 of 58 4 of 6 6 of 10 26 of 71 0 of 0 2 of 3
Conor McGregor 23 of 62 37% 16 of 50 5 of 6 2 of 6 23 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Nate Diaz 33 of 66 50% 29 of 59 3 of 5 1 of 2 30 of 62 3 of 4 0 of 0
Conor McGregor 54 of 90 60% 49 of 81 4 of 7 1 of 2 39 of 72 10 of 12 5 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz

Round 1
Veteran referee John McCarthy is the third man in the cage for tonight’s welterweight headliner, with judges Derek Cleary, Jeff Mullen and Glenn Trowbridge scoring the bout. The fighters are kept feet apart during final instructions, and there is no touch of gloves before or after the opening bell. McGregor opens with a pair of outside leg kicks as he pushes out from the center, moving Diaz backward toward the fence. Two more kicks connect on Diaz’s lead right leg, then another after he tries to step toward the middle. Diaz checks the next kick and gives McGregor one of his own. McGregor steps forward and connects with a left hand over the top. Diaz seems to recover quickly, then gets sent to the floor with a straight left. McGregor allows the jiu-jitsu specialist to stand as the enter the third minute of the opening round. Another slapping leg kick connects for McGregor, who shakes his head after dodging a two-piece Diaz combo. McGregor finds his straight left again as he catches Diaz leaning. The American’s face is marked up already, and he seems increasingly concerned with checking McGregor’s low kicks. Diaz takes another leg kick and walks into a left hand. The next kick from McGregor catches Diaz planting to throw a punch, and it looks like the hardest shot so far. Diaz is starting to talk to McGregor, throwing up his hands and walking forward on the Irishman. McGregor closes the round with a straight left and right hook, and Diaz is still trying to talk to him after the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 McGregor

Round 2
Diaz checks the first leg kick from McGregor, but the second one lands with authority. McGregor catches the American with another left hand, putting Diaz on his seat again. McGregor tells him to stand, then sends him right back to the floor with another combination. Diaz is bloodied now, leaking fluid from his nose as he staggers around the outside. Diaz grabs for McGregor’s legs, can’t get there, and now McGregor pushes forward with more leg kicks. Diaz tries to answer in kind, but there’s not much behind his kicks at this point. Three minutes remain in the second round, and McGregor is firmly in control of the bout. The leg kicks and left hands keep coming; though Diaz is trying to get back in the fight, the openings are simply not there. McGregor stands in front of Diaz but keeps his distance, diving inside to deliver more kicks and snappy punches. Suddenly, with 90 seconds left, Diaz starts to gain some steam. The Stockton native’s slapping punches are finding a home, and McGregor is being forced to his back foot. McGregor stumbles as he moves backward and eats a hard right as he finds his footing. Diaz swarms him against the fence, teeing off with both hands while McGregor tries to hold on and slow the pace. A looping right hand, now a body shot score for Diaz as the final seconds tick down.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 McGregor

Round 3
The welterweights have traded positions at the start of round three, with Diaz pushing out from the center and McGregor circling around the perimeter. Diaz steps out with a two-piece, pushes McGregor against the fence and looks for a trip takedown, but McGregor blocks it and reverses. Diaz spins him around again, now 80 seconds into the round. McGregor slaps with palm strikes to the sides of Diaz’s head as he fights off the clinch and trip. McGregor separates and pops Diaz with an elbow on the way out, then follows him to land a leg kick. Now it’s McGregor back in the middle and Diaz taking a breather, jawing at “The Notorious” between exchanges. McGregor throws a kick, but it’s snatched up by Diaz and used to run the Irish champ against the fence. Diaz scores with some short left hands, drops levels and tries a double-leg, but it’s blocked by McGregor. Halfway through the round, McGregor spins to take the outside position in the clinch. Diaz walks him along the fence, maybe looking for a trip, then reverses and lands body-head on the split. McGregor is jogging away as Diaz walks him down, drawing a mocking finger-point and more words from Diaz. A leg kick lands for McGregor, then a sweeping right hand for Diaz. They tie up away from the fence with 60 seconds left, then Diaz pops McGregor with a one-two on the break. Diaz shoves McGregor against the wall and begins teeing off with punches, rocking McGregor’s head from side to side. McGregor eats an uppercut, a right hook, but he’s still standing up against the fence. Final 20 seconds now, and Diaz is still at it, hurting McGregor with a body blow and a knee to the face. McGregor is purely defensive here, but he’ll survive to see the fourth round.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Diaz
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-8 Diaz
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Diaz

Round 4
Diaz opens the fourth round with a body shot; McGregor gets him back with a few hard leg kicks. Diaz is pawing at the blood running down his face, some of it into his right eye. It’s Diaz pressing forward, but McGregor is doing better work jabbing off his back foot in this frame. McGregor steps forward to land another stiff jab, now a leg kick that seems to sting Diaz, who hops away. Diaz shoots for a takedown at the fence, but McGregor stuffs it and peels away the American’s hands. Diaz switches to body shots, peppering both sides of McGregor’s ribcage with short punches. McGregor lands a short elbow in the clinch; Diaz gives him one in return and then goes back to holding McGregor against the wall. McGregor spins him around inside the final two minutes, then breaks away with a punching combo. A left hand from Diaz appears to wobble McGregor, but the featherweight ace responds with a punch of his own just seconds later. Body-head combination scores for McGregor, and Diaz looks to be fading here as rivers of blood continue to cover his face.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 McGregor
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 McGregor

Round 5
Diaz walks forward and gets roughed up by a leaping knee, but he catches hold of McGregor and shoves him against the fence. McGregor reverses after 20 seconds and breaks away from the clinch, leaving Diaz with another punch to his grisly face. McGregor strolls away with his back turned, hands on his hips, and Diaz follows him to bring on another clinch. Diaz drops for yet another double-leg attempt, but McGregor blocks this one, too. Diaz switches to body shots, then slaps McGregor with a right hand. McGregor walks away with his hands on his hips again; Diaz walks after him and sticks out a middle finger. Diaz gets McGregor moving backward and leaning over, then tags him with a right hand. Now it’s a clinch from Diaz, pulling down McGregor’s head to tee him up for a knee which doesn’t materialize. Diaz scores with a knee to the body, tries another takedown and gets blocked by McGregor, who takes a look up at the clock and sees 90 seconds remaining. Diaz is doing good work in the clinch but he whiffs on a slashing elbow and allows McGregor to spin him around. McGregor hits a trip takedown, but Diaz is back on his feet seconds later. Down to the final half minute, Diaz continues to pepper with short punches in the tie-up. He finally trips McGregor to the ground with only moments to go, and Diaz closes out the fight with some ground-and-pound.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Diaz (48-47 McGregor)
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Diaz (47-47 Draw)
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Diaz (48-47 McGregor)

The Official Result
Conor McGregor def. Nate Diaz via Majority Decision (48-47, 48-47, 47-47) R5 5:00
Dustin Poirier - Fight History
LOSS vs Max Holloway
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Holloway 1 198 of 375 52% 201 of 378 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:32
Dustin Poirier 1 109 of 255 42% 109 of 255 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Holloway 1 26 of 64 40% 26 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Dustin Poirier 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Max Holloway 0 44 of 67 65% 47 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:24
Dustin Poirier 1 25 of 43 58% 25 of 43 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:12
3 Max Holloway 0 38 of 61 62% 38 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Max Holloway 0 44 of 84 52% 44 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 0 22 of 68 32% 22 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Max Holloway 0 46 of 99 46% 46 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 0 25 of 63 39% 25 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Holloway 198 of 375 52% 103 of 253 64 of 80 31 of 42 182 of 351 0 of 1 16 of 23
Dustin Poirier 109 of 255 42% 94 of 235 6 of 10 9 of 10 102 of 243 3 of 6 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Holloway 26 of 64 40% 9 of 39 11 of 16 6 of 9 23 of 57 0 of 0 3 of 7
Dustin Poirier 16 of 32 50% 12 of 28 1 of 1 3 of 3 16 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Max Holloway 44 of 67 65% 31 of 52 11 of 12 2 of 3 31 of 51 0 of 0 13 of 16
Dustin Poirier 25 of 43 58% 21 of 36 3 of 5 1 of 2 19 of 34 2 of 3 4 of 6
3 Max Holloway 38 of 61 62% 18 of 36 9 of 12 11 of 13 38 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 21 of 49 42% 15 of 41 2 of 4 4 of 4 21 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Max Holloway 44 of 84 52% 23 of 57 15 of 18 6 of 9 44 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 22 of 68 32% 21 of 67 0 of 0 1 of 1 22 of 67 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Max Holloway 46 of 99 46% 22 of 69 18 of 22 6 of 8 46 of 98 0 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 25 of 63 39% 25 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0 24 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Angelo picks Max Holloway, but with low confidence. He notes that Dustin is the better all-around fighter but may be pressured by his retirement fight and home crowd, leading him to brawl instead of using his full skillset. He expects Holloway's volume striking to win a decision. He will not bet on this fight.

Says he's not betting on this fight due to the circumstances.
"I am going to pick Max. I'm not going to bet on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Big Brady leans Max Holloway, citing Holloway's improvement at lightweight and youth (33 vs 36). He worries about Holloway's chin after his first KO but believes Holloway's volume will be key. He notes Poirier's retirement and hometown advantage could sway a close decision, so he's not betting.

Holloway by close decision; no bet due to close odds and hometown factor
"I'm going to lean the Holloway side, but I don't think I'm touching this one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Connor believes Holloway has evolved into a more complete striker since their last fight, with improved footwork, counterpunching, and kicking game. He thinks Holloway was close to winning the second fight and that his cleaner combinations and pressure can overcome Poirier's power if he survives the turning points. He also notes Poirier's retirement talk as a potential factor that could affect his focus.

"I think Holloway can have that kind of performance again and win it this time."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

The host notes Poirier is up 2-0 in the series and believes his power punching approach will be more effective than Holloway's volume, referencing the second matchup where Poirier won 4-1 on scorecards. He expects Poirier to repeat that and win on the scorecards.

"I think his power punching approach will be a little bit more effective than the volume we saw from Holloway. And we saw that in their second matchup where Porier was able to win 4 to1 on the scorecards. And …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway over Dustin Poirier, predicting a decision win. He cites Holloway's superior striking and the fact that Poirier is retiring after this fight, which may affect his intensity. The Guru also notes that Holloway nearly won their second fight and is now properly prepared at lightweight, unlike the short-notice rematch. He believes Poirier's striking has regressed due to focusing on takedown defense, while Holloway's striking remains sharp. He expects a competitive fight but sees Holloway as a step ahead.

"I'm going with Max Holloway getting this one done by decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Zane agrees with Connor that Holloway can win, citing Holloway's improved back-foot game and the fact that he was close in the second fight. He also points to Poirier's age and potential emotional state in his retirement fight as reasons Holloway might finally get the win. However, he expresses nervousness about picking against the trend of the first two fights.

"That's kind of my feeling, too. Makes me very nervous."
LOSS vs Islam Makhachev
Submission (brabo choke) R5 2:42 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 88 of 156 56% 147 of 222 5 of 16 31% 2 0 10:23
Dustin Poirier 0 74 of 183 40% 104 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 9 66% 46 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:23
Dustin Poirier 0 1 of 5 20% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Islam Makhachev 0 26 of 46 56% 30 of 50 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:49
Dustin Poirier 0 24 of 58 41% 32 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
3 Islam Makhachev 0 18 of 24 75% 24 of 33 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:10
Dustin Poirier 0 15 of 36 41% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
4 Islam Makhachev 0 20 of 44 45% 29 of 53 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:28
Dustin Poirier 0 23 of 61 37% 34 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
5 Islam Makhachev 0 18 of 33 54% 18 of 33 1 of 4 25% 1 0 0:33
Dustin Poirier 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 88 of 156 56% 81 of 148 7 of 7 0 of 1 71 of 136 11 of 14 6 of 6
Dustin Poirier 74 of 183 40% 53 of 159 18 of 20 3 of 4 51 of 157 23 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dustin Poirier 1 of 5 20% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Islam Makhachev 26 of 46 56% 23 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 1 17 of 36 6 of 7 3 of 3
Dustin Poirier 24 of 58 41% 18 of 51 5 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 47 10 of 11 0 of 0
3 Islam Makhachev 18 of 24 75% 18 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 15 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 1
Dustin Poirier 15 of 36 41% 13 of 34 1 of 1 1 of 1 15 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Islam Makhachev 20 of 44 45% 17 of 41 3 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 23 of 61 37% 12 of 49 11 of 12 0 of 0 12 of 50 11 of 11 0 of 0
5 Islam Makhachev 18 of 33 54% 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 11 of 23 47% 9 of 21 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev confidently, citing his superior wrestling and pressure. He believes Islam will get takedowns at will and potentially finish Dustin Poirier. He acknowledges Poirier's toughness and one-punch power but thinks the grappling gap is too wide. He mentions a fantasy scenario where Poirier wins by submission but calls it highly unlikely.

"Islam makev is absolutely the pick and I am very confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady is heavily on Islam Makhachev, calling him his favorite play on the board and planning 100% exposure. He expects Islam to get takedowns and finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges Dustin Poirier's power and cheap price but sees a very limited path for Poirier. He will sprinkle a little on Poirier but is confident Islam gets the job done inside the distance.

fight doesn't go to decision (-550), Islam Makhachev wins inside the distance, Dustin Poirier to land more than 0.5 significant strikes (free square on PrizePicks)
"I'm going to have a ton of Islam in this matchup he's probably my favorite play on the board"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees Makhachev is the favorite but notes Poirier's puncher's chance and the appealing +500 underdog price. He discusses Poirier's win over Benoît Saint Denis, which he considers tainted due to Saint Denis having a staph infection. Cody believes Makhachev will take Poirier down and grind him out, likely submitting him late or winning by TKO. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds at +145.

over 2.5 rounds (+145)
"Obviously Makhachev is the favorite but he's starting to take on almost too much money... Poirier is a bonafide legend... the more you're getting these giant plus 500 type price tags on them the more appealing it does become."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Islam's dominant grappling and improved striking, noting his win over Volkanovski. He points out that Dustin has faced grapplers like Khabib and Oliveira, but the Dagestani style is uniquely relentless. He mentions the possibility of Poirier landing a check hook like Martins did, but ultimately sees Islam's path to victory as more likely. He is rooting for Poirier but picks Islam as a pure pick.

"as a pure pick I will pick Islam but I'm rooting for porier here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel Vreeland picks Makhachev but disagrees that he's a better striker than Poirier. He notes Makhachev's striking is overrated based on the Volkanovski fight. However, he believes Poirier will give up too many positions and won't be on his feet long enough to win a decision. Vreeland thinks Poirier's only path is a finish, but Makhachev is durable and has gone 25 minutes with Volkanovski. He suggests Poirier's props (KO or submission) are better value than his moneyline.

Poirier by submission +800 or +900, Poirier inside distance
"I don't think makev is as hitable as the people who Dustin PO is beating with his hands"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Jeff Fox picks Makhachev, calling him 'Khabib with hands.' He believes Poirier has no advantage anywhere, especially now that Makhachev is knocking people out on the feet. Fox sees no realm where Poirier is better and expects Makhachev to dominate.

"obviously makev is my pick here he's he's basically khabib with hands"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The host expects Makhachev to take the fight to the ground and submit Poirier, similar to how Khabib and Oliveira did. Poirier's grappling defense has been exploited by elite wrestlers, and Makhachev's pressure and top control should lead to a rear-naked choke. The host sees this as an easy win for Makhachev and likes the submission prop.

submission
"Give me Makhachev, Makhachev by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Makhachev to win, noting Poirier's age (35) and the historical stat that fighters over 35 under 155 lbs are 0-15 in title fights. He believes Makhachev's takedowns will be there whenever he wants, but warns that Makhachev has had bad performances before (like against Adriano Martins and Volkanovski) and could get into trouble if he stands with Poirier. He suggests betting the over 1.5 or over 2.5 rounds instead of the moneyline at -700.

over 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds (+145)
"I don't really like Poirier against any of these Dagestani wrestlers... takedowns are going to be there for Makhachev whenever he wants them."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev, predicting a first-round submission via arm triangle or Von Flue choke. He explains that Poirier's habit of going for guillotines leaves his arm in a vulnerable position. He also notes that Makhachev's striking has evolved to be more counter-based, reducing the chance of getting caught. He mentions Poirier's hip issues limiting his kicks and takedown defense.

Makhachev wins in round 1 by submission (arm triangle or Von Flue choke)
"I think he's going to lose very bad in round one with absolute [__] ease"
KO (punches) R2 2:32 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Poirier 1 28 of 34 82% 30 of 37 0 of 1 0% 4 0 0:31
Benoît Saint Denis 0 50 of 74 67% 69 of 97 3 of 7 42% 1 0 4:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Poirier 0 12 of 13 92% 14 of 16 0 of 1 0% 3 0 0:23
Benoît Saint Denis 0 38 of 49 77% 53 of 68 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:20
2 Dustin Poirier 1 16 of 21 76% 16 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:08
Benoît Saint Denis 0 12 of 25 48% 16 of 29 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Poirier 28 of 34 82% 24 of 30 3 of 3 1 of 1 23 of 25 4 of 8 1 of 1
Benoît Saint Denis 50 of 74 67% 25 of 46 18 of 20 7 of 8 17 of 37 31 of 35 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Poirier 12 of 13 92% 11 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 9 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
Benoît Saint Denis 38 of 49 77% 21 of 31 10 of 10 7 of 8 13 of 22 23 of 25 2 of 2
2 Dustin Poirier 16 of 21 76% 13 of 18 3 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 15 1 of 5 1 of 1
Benoît Saint Denis 12 of 25 48% 4 of 15 8 of 10 0 of 0 4 of 15 8 of 10 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit St. Denis
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: St. Denis (-205), Poirier (+170)

Round 1
The co-main event is a five-rounder because reasons, and it comes between former interim beltholder Poirier (29-8, 1 NC; 21-7, 1 NC UFC) and the ultra-violent St. Denis (13-1, 1 NC; 5-1 UFC). While it has been scheduled for 25 minutes, referee Mike Beltran is ready in the likely event it does not need that long to conclude. While Poirier has beaten a litany of top-tier names, his French counterpart is shooting up the charts with finish after dramatic finish. The excitement begins with a touch of gloves, and St. Denis moves right to the middle of the cage to release two quick low kicks. Poirier responds with one that is much heavier, and St. Denis punches his way into a takedown attempt. Poirier jumps guard with a guillotine choke, and St. Denis wrenches his neck out and slides around to turn the corner and cover Poirier on the side. St. Denis knees Poirier on the side of the thigh as he clings to him, with Poirier leaning on the cage wall. Poirier tells Beltran that his foe is grabbing his gloves, and Beltran mentions that St. Denis shouldn’t. Poirier again says his gloves are being grabbed, and St. Denis jumps onto his back to take it and fish for something. Poirier slides him off the back, and he eats two punches and snatches up a guillotine choke when St. Denis attacks for a takedown. St. Denis breaks off and gets out of it again, and he starts throwing hands and elbows. Poirier takes punishment as he presses forward, and he hunts for a single and then chains it to a double that he uses to sit St. Denis on the ground. St. Denis successfully sweeps him with a kimura, and he stands back up and elbows Poirier several times. Poirier clips him with a right hand, and he backs off and takes a few punches on the chin and smiles. St. Denis presses ahead and goes for a single, and Poirier attacks a guillotine from a different angle. St. Denis breaks out of it and sets Poirier down, and Poirier turns to his side to get up. The Frenchman takes Poirier’s back and fastens the body triangle around the waist, and Poirier hand-fights to stop a choke setup from going anywhere. Poirier sits up even while in the body triangle, and he fights off chokes forming around from either side. Poirier waves his finger and punches St. Denis behind his own head. Poirier turns around into the guard, and St. Denis snatches up an armbar. Poirier wags his finger, and time expires before it is tight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 St. Denis
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 St. Denis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 St. Denis

Round 2
Poirier jogs out of his corner, seemingly fresh, and St. Denis swipes at him with body kicks and punches. Poirier drills him with a right hand and jumps guard for a guillotine choke. St. Denis fights it off and moves to full mount as he looks for an arm-triangle choke. Poirier turns over, and he gets flattened out as St. Denis looks for a rear-naked choke. Poirier sits up and puts his back to the wall, and St. Denis goes for a brute force face crank submission. Poirier turns him around and gets back to his feet, and he eats an elbow. St. Denis pursues a single, and when that fails, he connects with an elbow and a knee. Poirier counters with a few punches, and he hunts for another guillotine but lets it go so he can get away. St. Denis reaches out with a left hand, and he gets staggered by a pair of punches and an uppercut. Poirier lines up a short right and a massive left hand, and he fastens a guillotine choke and lets it go again. St. Denis takes a breath, and he loads up for bear with everything he has left. Poirier unleashes a massive right hand from the depths of the underworld, and he knocks the Frenchman clean off his feet. St. Denis hits his back, barely conscious, and Poirier finishes the job with one devastating right hand that would make Dan Henderson proud. The crowd explodes in support of the victorious Louisianan, who walks away knowing his work here is done. What a win for Poirier, survives some tough sledding to ice an incredibly tough foe that had never been finished as a professional. It’s all gas, no brakes for the 35-year-old, who reminds everyone watching that he’s not done yet.

The Official Result
Dustin Poirier def. Benoit St. Denis R2 2:32 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing his pressure, power, and wrestling. He worries that Dustin Poirier's chin may have deteriorated after the Justin Gaethje knockout. He thinks Saint Denis can overwhelm Poirier early. However, he won't bet because he's rooting for Poirier.

"I gotta go with Beno St Den here I don't know if I'm going to bet on it though I'm going to be fullon rooting for Dustin poer"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by second-round submission. He notes that Saint Denis is younger, hungrier, and has grappling upside. He believes Saint Denis will get Poirier down and submit him, similar to how Michael Chandler did. He acknowledges Poirier's striking advantage but thinks Saint Denis's durability and pressure will be too much.

win by second round submission
"I'm taking benois anony I think he gets this fight down to the mat eventually ... and I think he Subs him in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Cody points to Poirier's declining volume and durability, noting he has been outstruck in recent fights and is showing signs of wear. He contrasts that with Saint Denis's relentless pressure, cardio, durability, and progression. He believes Saint Denis will break Poirier's will as the fight goes on.

"I think they're meeting at the right point in the road St Den gets the win"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Daniel picks Poirier but is very hesitant due to Poirier's age and coming off a head kick KO loss. He acknowledges Poirier is the more skilled striker and believes he can knock out Saint Denis on the feet. However, he worries about Saint Denis's pressure, grappling, and durability, and whether Poirier still has the will and cardio to go five rounds. Daniel notes that if Poirier drops Saint Denis, he might follow him to the ground unlike against Charles Oliveira. He ultimately leans on Poirier's skill advantage.

"I'm still gonna go with porier you know um he follows me on Twitter I don't want to no it ain't about that you know um it's uh he's just so much more skilled it's just what does he have …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Daniel Vreeland picks Benoît Saint Denis but expresses discomfort with the -205 price. He believes BSD's wrestling and pace will be too much for Poirier, especially given Poirier's recent knockout loss. Vreeland notes that BSD has finished all his opponents and has never been finished. However, he calls the line a 'dog or pass' spot because BSD has never fought anyone as tough as Poirier. He says he would rather see BSD fight someone like Rafael Fiziev before this step up. Despite the price, he picks BSD because he has never picked against him.

Vreeland says he can't get behind the moneyline at -205 but would use BSD in daily fantasy or pick his takedowns on Underdog.
"I can't take a guy in Benoît Saint Denis who went from knocking out Matt Frevola to fighting Dustin Poirier at negative 205 and confidently say yes this is a good line to play."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Jeff Fox picks Benoît Saint Denis as well, noting that he has never picked against BSD and won't start now. He acknowledges the massive step up in competition from Matt Frevola to Dustin Poirier, but believes BSD's wrestling and finishing ability are real. Fox points out that Poirier has been knocked out recently and that BSD has the power to put him away. He also mentions that BSD is younger and has a relentless pace. However, he says he won't bet real money on this fight due to the price and the step up.

Fox says he won't bet real money on this fight but would use BSD in fantasy or prop bets.
"I'm going BSD haven't ever picked against him won't today."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Saint Denis is a relentless pressure fighter with five straight finishes. He uses leg kicks, body work, and clinch pressure to break opponents, then works to the back for rear-naked chokes. Poirier is a better striker but struggles against aggressive grapplers who can close the distance, as seen in losses to Khabib and Oliveira. Poirier does not want this fight and may be mentally checked out. I expect Saint Denis to break Poirier within the first two rounds and secure a submission.

Saint Denis by submission in rounds 1-2
"give me saon here I think he finds a submission within the first two rounds uh I feel pretty damn good about it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Paul emphasizes Poirier's mileage and the fact that he didn't even know the fight was on until recently, suggesting he hasn't been sparring hard. He contrasts that with Saint Denis's hunger and youth, and notes that Saint Denis has never been finished and has shown incredible durability and pace.

"I think they're meeting at the right point in the road St Den gets the win"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

The MMA Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis, believing he will overwhelm Dustin Poirier with body kicks, takedowns, and pressure. He notes Poirier's wide hips and square stance make him vulnerable to body kicks, and that Poirier struggled with Chandler's body kicks. He predicts Saint Denis will finish Poirier by ground-and-pound TKO in round two, leading to Poirier's retirement.

round two TKO
"I think benoir beats the [ __ ] out of porier in round one beats the [ __ ] out of him in round two and finishes him on the ground in round two"
LOSS vs Justin Gaethje
KO (head kick) R2 1:00 · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Gaethje 0 27 of 52 51% 27 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 1 41 of 66 62% 41 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Gaethje 0 27 of 51 52% 27 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 0 33 of 56 58% 33 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Justin Gaethje 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dustin Poirier 1 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Gaethje 27 of 52 51% 21 of 46 4 of 4 2 of 2 25 of 49 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 41 of 66 62% 23 of 48 7 of 7 11 of 11 38 of 63 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Gaethje 27 of 51 52% 21 of 45 4 of 4 2 of 2 25 of 48 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 33 of 56 58% 18 of 41 5 of 5 10 of 10 31 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Justin Gaethje 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 8 of 10 80% 5 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Angelo picks Dustin Poirier, expecting a similar fight to their first meeting but without a finish. He believes Poirier's technical striking and fight IQ will outpoint Gaethje over five rounds. He notes that both have evolved at the same pace, but if Gaethje uses wrestling, it could change things. He is excited for the fight but not betting on it.

"I think it's gonna be more the same here Justin is tough he's dangerous Poirier is going to be Technical and I think he's going to out point for the win just like he did last time I don't think …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Big Brady picks Dustin Poirier to win by late third-round finish. He references the first fight where Poirier landed 142 head strikes and broke Gaethje in the fourth round. He trusts Poirier's durability (only two KO losses in 36 fights) and volume, and expects damage to accumulate. However, he is not confident, acknowledging Gaethje's improvements and power. He calls it a toss-up but leans Poirier.

late third round finish
"I'm gonna take Dustin for you to finish Justin gaichi late third round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Cody picks Poirier based on the first fight where Poirier adjusted after leg kicks and knocked Gaethje out. He notes Poirier's training partners at ATT (Chris Duncan, Grant Dawson) have had career-best performances recently, suggesting good camp. He acknowledges Gaethje's leg kicks and durability but believes Poirier's boxing and ability to weather the storm give him the edge. He does not plan to bet pre-fight.

"I'm gonna side with Dustin Poirier but like this is this fight you know we've already seen it it already kind of plays out like absolute chaos"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

James picks Poirier, trusting his boxing accuracy, durability in wars, and ability to adjust to leg kicks. He notes Gaethje has improved technically but still gets hit and has been finished in wars before. He expects a war that goes into championship rounds, with Poirier's dog and cardio giving him the edge.

over 2.5 rounds (implied)
"I'm picking Dustin in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Poirier's precision striking and combinations will hurt Gaethje eventually and put him away. The fight doesn't go to decision is the spot I lean into most. Poirier by knockout, probably in the fourth or fifth round. Gaethje's leg kicks were effective in the first fight but Poirier's hands will find the big shot again.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm leaning Dustin Poirier, leaning fight doesn't go to decision like I said as my favorite prediction for this matchup give me Poirier by knockout probably once again and the fourth possibly even fifth round of this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Gaethje

Paul leans Gaethje due to plus money and Gaethje's proven ability to break opponents down in later rounds, referencing the Fiziev fight where Gaethje faded Fiziev in the third. He questions Poirier's durability and willingness to take damage at 34, noting Poirier's recent fights have been early finishes or high-damage affairs. He also highlights Gaethje's camp in Colorado producing good results. He calls it a 'dog or pass' and prefers the plus money ticket.

"I'm gonna end up going with just engaging fair enough"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:00 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Poirier 0 38 of 76 50% 63 of 105 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:47
Michael Chandler 0 43 of 100 43% 65 of 135 3 of 7 42% 0 0 5:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Poirier 0 28 of 57 49% 31 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Chandler 0 23 of 69 33% 24 of 73 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:05
2 Dustin Poirier 0 2 of 3 66% 23 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Chandler 0 18 of 25 72% 39 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:34
3 Dustin Poirier 0 8 of 16 50% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:47
Michael Chandler 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Poirier 38 of 76 50% 34 of 71 2 of 2 2 of 3 32 of 66 3 of 4 3 of 6
Michael Chandler 43 of 100 43% 32 of 80 10 of 17 1 of 3 25 of 76 2 of 2 16 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Poirier 28 of 57 49% 25 of 53 2 of 2 1 of 2 25 of 53 3 of 4 0 of 0
Michael Chandler 23 of 69 33% 16 of 54 6 of 12 1 of 3 21 of 66 2 of 2 0 of 1
2 Dustin Poirier 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Chandler 18 of 25 72% 16 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 21
3 Dustin Poirier 8 of 16 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 6
Michael Chandler 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michael Chandler vs. Dustin Poirier
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Poirier (-210), Chandler (+180)

Round 1
Two of the lightweight division’s best action fighters are set to square off, and both Poirier and Chandler are hoping to get back in the championship picture after recent losses in title bouts. Dan Miragliotta is the third man in the cage. Chandler misses on a big low kick. Poirier misses his first leg kick too, and Chandler answers with a right hand. Chandler comes forward and lands a hard body kick. Chandler shoots and Poirier shucks him off. Poirier jabs the body. Chandler has a leg kick checked. Chandler pressures with punches and front kicks, but Poirier defnds well. Moments later, a right lands clean for Chandler, and Poirier is on the defensive. Chandler lands some heavy shots with his foe’s back to the fence. Poirier gets off the fence and they’re back in the center of the cage. Chandler is swinging heavy leather as usual. A crisp right connects for Poirier. They collide heads and Chandler tees off with right hands. he backs Poirier into the fence and continues to land power punches. Poirier looks hurt and Chandler takes him down near the fence. Chandler thinks about a kimura, but Poirier scoots to the fence. Chandler almost jumps on the back as Poirier works his way up. Chandler has a body lock and he gets Poirier down once, then follows with a suplex. Poirier is right back up, and he’s moving forward with punches now. They’re trading, and it’s Poirier who buckles his man with a right. Poirer goes on the attack, and he’s unloading on a reeling Chandler near the fence as time runs out. Chandler, whose face is battered and bloodied, may have been saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Poirier
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Poirier
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Poirier

Round 2
Poirier sticks a jab at the outset. Chandler presses forward with a body-head combo followed by a kick. That sets up a high amplitude takedown, and now Chandler is in Poirier’s closed guard. Poirier lands elbows from his back. Chandler is leaking blood from his nose, and it’s getting all over Poirier. Poirier is framing a triangle, but Chandler passes and takes the back. Chandler attempts to get his left arm under the chin, but Poirier defends well. Chandler gets both hooks in and continues to hunt for the choke. Chandler is too high and the choke isn’t under the neck, but he is winning the round at this point. Chandler continues to hold a dominant position, but Poirier is able to turn and get his back to the cage. Poirier has full guard and he frames a kimura. Chandler makes him eat a big right and he gives up on that. Chandler switches to hammerfists and Miragliotta warns him for landing blows to the back of the head. Chandler relents and he traps the wrist of Poirier while landing solid right hands to the head. Chandler stays heavy on top as the round draws to a close, and he’ll end a dominant frame in top position.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chandler
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chandler
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chandler

Round 3
Poirier attacks the lead leg of Chandler. Poirier with a straight left. Chandler blocks a head kick and then is denied on a half-hearted takedown. Chandler pressures behind a combination and changes levels. He gets a high crotch and lifts Poirier for a slam, only to see Poirier scramble into top position on the deposit. From there, Poirier transitions to the back of his opponent. Poirier has a body triangle secured with Chandler still on his knees in the center of the Octagon. Poirier locks in a rear-naked choke and falls back to the canvas, drapping his adversary with him. Poirier’s arm is under the chin and the squeeze is tight. Chandler has no choice but to tap in a matter of seconds.

The Official Result
Dustin Poirier def. Michael Chandler via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R3 2:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Angelo acknowledges Chandler's power and wrestling but does not trust him to fight to win rather than slug it out. He believes Poirier is the smarter, more composed fighter focused on winning a title. He picks Poirier because Chandler cannot be trusted to try to win, though he expects an exciting fight.

"Dustin Poirier is the pick but literally because Michael Chandler can't be trusted to try to win a fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Big Brady picks Dustin Poirier to win by knockout in the second round. He believes Poirier is the better technical striker with better cardio, and that Chandler's chin is questionable after taking damage. He compares it to Chandler's fight with Gaethje, but notes Poirier has more power and better cardio. He expects a stand-up war with no takedowns, and that Chandler will slow down as the fight goes on.

Poirier by KO in round 2; fight of the night candidate
"I think pooria does finish him this time around I think pooria does finish him in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Michael Chandler

Cody picks Michael Chandler as a plus money underdog, expecting chaos in the fight. He notes that both fighters will eat massive shots and that Chandler has a legitimate chance on any given night due to his athleticism, wrestling, and power. Cody believes Chandler's willingness to throw down and his durability make him live at the plus price, and he sees the fight as a 50/50 proposition.

"I'm drawn to Chandler here strictly because I expect chaos in this fight... I see a plus 190 price tag on a fight that I could really see going both ways."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to knock out Michael Chandler, citing Poirier's volume, knockout power, and finishing ability when he smells blood. He notes that Chandler is susceptible to calf kicks and tends to get wild, which could lead to a straight left from Poirier. Levi respects Chandler's explosiveness and D1 wrestling but believes Poirier's experience and the 'Poirier Blitz' will be the difference. He mentions that he wanted to bet Poirier but missed the line at -175, so he is passing on a bet. He also discusses the danger of Chandler's one-punch power and the potential for a first-round knockout from either side.

Predicts a knockout win for Poirier; odds mentioned: Poirier -210, Chandler +180 at DraftKings
"I'm gonna go with poora here to knock out Michael Chandler"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

The host sees Poirier as the better technical striker and believes his discipline will keep him out of trouble. He acknowledges Chandler's power and speed but thinks Poirier will outbox him and potentially get a late KO. He notes the line at -210 is a bit wide but still picks Poirier. He expects knockdowns and a possible finish from Poirier.

"I think that the safer and better fighter is Dustin Poirier I think he gets his hand raised here by knockout later in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Paul picks Dustin Poirier by TKO, believing Poirier's boxing combinations and durability will be the difference. He notes that Chandler has durability issues and has been knocked out before, and that Poirier's pressure and volume will break Chandler down. Paul also mentions that Poirier is highly motivated and looks good in training, and that Chandler's recklessness could lead to him getting caught. He prefers the Poirier by TKO prop at plus money.

Poirier by TKO at +120
"I'm gonna go the other side and take Dustin Poirier... I feel like Poirier puts him away and if he can put him away we're good... I'm gonna take the Poirier by TKO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Poirier, emphasizing Chandler's tendency to get hit and Poirier's granite chin and experience against elite competition. He believes Poirier will trade in the pocket and finish Chandler with a first-round TKO, noting that Chandler only shoots takedowns when hurt and may gas from wrestling. He references Chandler's struggles against Ferguson on the feet.

TKO at the end of round one
"I'm going dust Emporia man Chandler gets hit too much"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 1:02 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Oliveira 0 73 of 131 55% 98 of 157 0 of 6 0% 3 1 5:41
Dustin Poirier 1 58 of 94 61% 69 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Oliveira 0 48 of 92 52% 51 of 96 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Dustin Poirier 1 54 of 87 62% 58 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Charles Oliveira 0 23 of 32 71% 45 of 54 0 of 3 0% 0 1 4:27
Dustin Poirier 0 3 of 5 60% 10 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
3 Charles Oliveira 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 1 0% 3 0 0:48
Dustin Poirier 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Oliveira 73 of 131 55% 48 of 99 22 of 29 3 of 3 38 of 86 17 of 19 18 of 26
Dustin Poirier 58 of 94 61% 56 of 92 2 of 2 0 of 0 49 of 80 5 of 7 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Oliveira 48 of 92 52% 28 of 66 17 of 23 3 of 3 35 of 76 13 of 15 0 of 1
Dustin Poirier 54 of 87 62% 52 of 85 2 of 2 0 of 0 47 of 76 5 of 7 2 of 4
2 Charles Oliveira 23 of 32 71% 19 of 27 4 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 4 3 of 3 18 of 25
Dustin Poirier 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3
3 Charles Oliveira 2 of 7 28% 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira to win by submission in the second round, but with low confidence. He notes that Oliveira has improved immensely, answering questions about his cardio and chin. He believes Oliveira can get the fight to the mat, where he is a wizard, and submit Poirier. Poirier has the striking advantage and good takedown defense, but has been taken down by grapplers like Dan Hooker. Brady is staying away from moneyline bets and is playing props.

Oliveira by submission in round 2
"i will take oliveira for the upset give me oliveira to win i'm going to say second round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to win the lightweight title. He emphasizes Poirier's finishing instinct, particularly his patented blitz when he hurts opponents, and his ability to throw high volume (350+ strikes in recent fights). Levi notes that Poirier has survived deep submission attempts before, unlike Michael Chandler who made a 'meathead error' against Oliveira. He believes Poirier's composure and experience on big stages will be key, and that he will hurt Oliveira standing and finish him without making a mistake.

"dustin poirier is going to hurt charles oliveira standing and he's not going to make the meathead mistake that a michael chandler made"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Poirier

This is a volatile fight. Poirier is the slightly better boxer and should weather Oliveira's early aggression. Oliveira's striking has improved, but Poirier's defensive soundness and experience in five-round fights give him an edge. The fight likely ends inside the distance, and Poirier's finishing ability in later rounds is key. The 'fight doesn't go to decision' is a strong play.

fight doesn't go to decision, fight doesn't start round 5
"i'm going to be going with the pory side of things here i think he weathers that early storm and then eventually gets uh charles oliveira out of there i'm going to go dustin poirier and you round to tko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira to win by first-round submission (rear-naked choke). He highlights Oliveira's check hook as a key weapon against Poirier's vulnerability to left hooks. He also notes Poirier's tendency to leave his neck exposed on the ground, as seen against Khabib. He believes Oliveira's confidence in his jiu-jitsu allows him to strike freely, while Poirier will be hesitant due to takedown threats.

first-round rear-naked choke; live bet on Poirier if fight goes to later rounds
"i'm going with my boy charlie olives and this is a switch up as well because originally i was thinking poirier but a while ago i switched to charlie olives"
TKO (doctor stoppage) R1 5:00 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Poirier 0 36 of 66 54% 36 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:18
Conor McGregor 0 27 of 38 71% 43 of 54 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Poirier 0 36 of 66 54% 36 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:18
Conor McGregor 0 27 of 38 71% 43 of 54 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Poirier 36 of 66 54% 35 of 62 0 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 20 0 of 0 28 of 46
Conor McGregor 27 of 38 71% 13 of 21 6 of 9 8 of 8 17 of 26 1 of 1 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Poirier 36 of 66 54% 35 of 62 0 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 20 0 of 0 28 of 46
Conor McGregor 27 of 38 71% 13 of 21 6 of 9 8 of 8 17 of 26 1 of 1 9 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Angelo flips his pick from the last fight, now favoring Conor. He notes that in the first fight, Conor landed everything with power and had Dustin in trouble multiple times, but didn't capitalize due to pacing. He believes Conor will have a plan for the leg kicks this time and will get the job done. He also placed a bet on Conor by KO/TKO for plus odds.

Conor by KO/TKO at plus odds
"I think conor wins the i think he wins this fight i'm flipping my pick from the last go-around"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Big Brady picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Conor has the X-factor power, being the hardest hitter pound-for-pound, and that Poirier absorbs a lot of strikes (4.17 per minute). He expects Conor to make adjustments, stuff takedowns, check leg kicks, and keep the fight at range. He acknowledges Poirier's durability but believes Conor will land a knockout.

first round knockout
"i'm gonna say conor mcgregor does get a first round knockout here against dustin poirier"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Cody picks Poirier based on Conor's fading cardio after the first round, Poirier's durability and leg kicks, and the American Top Team camp. He notes Conor's power early but expects Poirier to take over late. He hasn't bet yet, waiting to see how the press conferences affect Poirier's mindset.

264 to 1 odds on first round KO via DraftKings promo; suggests live betting Poirier after round 1
"my pick for the purposes of the show right now is dustin poirier i haven't put any money on i want to see how the press conferences go"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to win the trilogy. He emphasizes Poirier's superior cardio, output, and durability, noting that Poirier has the most knockouts in UFC lightweight history and has shown he can overcome adversity. He points out that since 2016, Poirier is 7-1 while McGregor is 1-3, and that McGregor struggles in deep waters and has diminishing durability. He predicts a submission win for Poirier, citing the check right hook, calf kicks, takedowns, and clinch work as key factors.

Poirier by submission
"i'm going with dustin poury i'm gonna say this time by submission"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Jacob initially favored Dustin but switched to Conor after rewatching the first fight. He notes Conor landed everything in round one but paced himself too much. He thinks Conor will blitz early to avoid calf kicks and finish in the first round. He also mentions a possible staph infection on Conor's elbow, which could affect cardio and push Conor to an early finish.

Conor wins in round 1
"i think conor wins this fight um so i've gone all the way back and i think conor does it i think he does in the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

I'm going with Poirier here, but I have no real confidence. I think Poirier's durability and cardio have improved at 155, and he can eat McGregor's shots now. McGregor might have a new game plan, but I expect Poirier to take over in the later rounds and finish him, probably in the third or fourth round. I'm not betting this fight myself, but I like Poirier inside the distance and the fight not going to decision.

under 3.5 rounds, under 4.5 rounds, fight doesn't go to decision, Poirier inside the distance, Poirier round 3, Poirier round 4, Poirier round 5
"i'm going to ultimately be on the poirier side here... i think poirier has the confidence now... and really start to put on mcgregor himself and then eventually finish him late in this fight probably in the third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Poirier

Paul picks Poirier, citing Conor's durability issues and long layoffs. He notes Conor's power early but believes Poirier's durability and cardio will prevail. He mentions the distraction of Conor's trash talk and the Colby Covington sparring video, but still favors Poirier.

suggests betting Poirier live after the first round
"i'm not i wouldn't rule mcgregor out but we got to go party that would be the logical pick especially at this price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Dustin Poirier

The Guru predicts Poirier will win by TKO in the third round. He expects McGregor to start strong, winning the first two rounds with good striking and body work, but Poirier's calf kicks and clinch work will wear McGregor down. By the third round, McGregor will fatigue, and Poirier will land a big elbow and follow-up shots to finish him against the cage. The Guru notes McGregor will have a more impressive performance than their first fight but the outcome will be the same.

Poirier wins by TKO in round 3
"poirier gets it done but i'm praying for mcgregor to win but i think poirier's gonna get this one done it'll be a more impressive performance by mcgregor but the inevitable outcome will be the same"
TKO (punches) R2 2:32 · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 · Jan 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Poirier 1 48 of 91 52% 53 of 98 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:42
Conor McGregor 0 29 of 66 43% 52 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Poirier 0 17 of 37 45% 22 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:40
Conor McGregor 0 15 of 34 44% 38 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:07
2 Dustin Poirier 1 31 of 54 57% 31 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Conor McGregor 0 14 of 32 43% 14 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Poirier 48 of 91 52% 30 of 69 0 of 1 18 of 21 46 of 89 0 of 0 2 of 2
Conor McGregor 29 of 66 43% 23 of 60 4 of 4 2 of 2 27 of 63 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Poirier 17 of 37 45% 8 of 26 0 of 0 9 of 11 17 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Conor McGregor 15 of 34 44% 12 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dustin Poirier 31 of 54 57% 22 of 43 0 of 1 9 of 10 29 of 52 0 of 0 2 of 2
Conor McGregor 14 of 32 43% 11 of 29 1 of 1 2 of 2 14 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Big Brady picks Conor McGregor to win by first-round knockout, similar to their first fight. He notes McGregor's power and accuracy as key advantages, and believes Poirier's cardio won't be a factor because the fight won't go deep. He acknowledges Poirier could be a live dog but ultimately sides with McGregor's striking superiority.

first round knockout
"i think conor mcgregor is going to do the same thing he did in their last fight i don't think it's going to be as early but i do think he's going to knock out dustin poirier"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

Daniel Levi picks Conor McGregor to win early, citing McGregor's devastating power and ability to finish fights in the first round. He acknowledges Poirier's improved chin at lightweight and his path to victory if he survives the early storm, but believes McGregor's power is too much. Levi expresses personal rooting interest for Poirier but makes a logical pick for McGregor.

McGregor by early finish
"i'm gonna have to go with mcgregor here to get it done early unfortunately"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

McGregor has the precision and power to replicate his first-round knockout from their first fight. Poirier is durable but has been knocked down by lesser power. McGregor's takedown defense is solid, and he should be able to keep the fight on the feet. Poirier's cardio advantage may not matter if McGregor lands early. I see McGregor winning by first-round KO.

McGregor in round 1 (+175), McGregor in round 2 (+350), under 2.5 rounds (-175)
"I'll go with McGregor to win this fight by first round KO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Conor McGregor

The MMA Guru believes Conor McGregor's improved boxing, especially his left hand, will be too much for Dustin Poirier. He notes that Poirier has not thrown many kicks since his hip surgery and will rely on boxing, which plays into McGregor's strengths. He predicts McGregor will land a big left hand in the first round, knocking Poirier out cold around the four-minute mark, similar to the Michael Johnson KO. He dismisses the idea of a 60-second KO but is confident McGregor wins.

KO in first round, around 4-minute mark
"mcgregor's gonna be out landing poirier poirier is gonna get frustrated with losing the round he's gonna come forward with with a big exchange and when he does that he's gonna get ko'd the same way he did against michael …"