Career Averages - Brad Katona
Career Averages - Jesse Butler
Brad Katona
Jesse Butler
Brad Katona - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Katona | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bekzat Almakhan | 1 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Katona | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bekzat Almakhan | 1 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Katona | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bekzat Almakhan | 8 of 11 | 72% | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Katona | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bekzat Almakhan | 8 of 11 | 72% | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Brad Katona, criticizing the hype around Bekzat Almakhan who lost his UFC debut despite landing one good punch. He trusts Katona's grit and forward pressure. He mentions a safer bet on Katona plus 3.5 (buying points) rather than the moneyline, noting Katona is at home and may get favorable judging.
Big Brady sees this as a very close fight, with both fighters well-rounded. He notes that Bekzat Almakhan's hype is based on one moment against Umar Nurmagomedov, but he lost most of that fight. He favors Brad Katona's volume and wrestling, and thinks the fight goes to decision. He picks the Canadian Katona in what he expects to be a close fight, relying on the judges.
The host believes Brad Katona has been underachieving and will showcase his pace, fight IQ, and defensive grappling to keep the fight in the striking realm. He expects Katona to dictate the pace with his striking advantage and mix in some grappling to secure a decision victory.
The MMA Guru picks Almakhan, citing his physicality, power, and performance against Umar Nurmagomedov. He thinks Katona is untalented and lacks finishing ability, while Almakhan will stuff takedowns and land a TKO. He notes Almakhan's fast, dangerous striking and Katona's well-rounded but unimpressive style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 89 of 141 | 63% | 117 of 171 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 89 of 201 | 44% | 109 of 223 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 30 of 44 | 68% | 39 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 24 of 57 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 2 | Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 37 of 61 | 60% | 46 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 45 of 100 | 45% | 50 of 105 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 | |
| 3 | Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 32 of 48 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 24 of 48 | 50% | 35 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean Matsumoto | 89 of 141 | 63% | 68 of 118 | 12 of 13 | 9 of 10 | 73 of 124 | 15 of 15 | 1 of 2 |
| Brad Katona | 89 of 201 | 44% | 62 of 164 | 6 of 10 | 21 of 27 | 85 of 196 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Matsumoto | 30 of 44 | 68% | 21 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 19 of 33 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
| Brad Katona | 20 of 53 | 37% | 14 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 8 | 19 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jean Matsumoto | 37 of 61 | 60% | 28 of 52 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 34 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Katona | 45 of 100 | 45% | 33 of 87 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 11 | 43 of 98 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jean Matsumoto | 22 of 36 | 61% | 19 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 20 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Brad Katona | 24 of 48 | 50% | 15 of 35 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 8 | 23 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jean Matsumoto but is hesitant, acknowledging that Brad Katona is a tough, durable fighter who could spoil the plans. He notes Matsumoto's well-rounded skills, BJJ black belt, and Muay Thai, but also points out that he was taken down nine times by Dan Argueta and nearly lost. He thinks Matsumoto's volume and willingness to let his hands go will be key, but he is not confident enough to bet the moneyline. He is considering a plus 3.5 round prop on Katona or the over 1.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Jean Matsumoto by decision. He acknowledges Katona's high fight IQ and ability to win minutes, but believes Matsumoto will be the more active striker and do more damage. He compares it to Katona's loss to Garrett Armfield, where Katona was out-struck. He expects a competitive fight but Matsumoto's damage will win the decision.
Connor also picks Matsumoto, citing Katona's tendency to have a bad start and not dictate the early going. He notes that Matsumoto is a strong athlete who will come forward, but acknowledges that Katona is tough and often comes on strong late. Connor sees it as a mirror match and a split decision possibility, but leans Matsumoto due to his physical advantages.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript.
Katona is a high-IQ fighter, but Matsumoto has good enough defensive grappling to keep the fight upright and utilize his striking advantage to touch up Katona en route to a decision victory. The line is a bit wide, so there could be some Katona value on his underdog line, but Matsumoto is more dangerous in the striking realm.
The Guru is impressed by Matsumoto's debut win over Dan Argueta, noting he looked amazing and showed talent. He criticizes Brad Katona's wins as being over low-level opponents and points out Katona's short reach. He believes Matsumoto, an undefeated 25-year-old prospect with a full training camp, will get the win.
Zane picks Matsumoto mainly because he expects Katona to have a slow start, as Katona often lets physically imposing fighters dictate the early going. He notes that Matsumoto is a powerful athlete who will blitz with power, but acknowledges that Katona has a good jab and could jab Matsumoto up. Zane sees it as a real 50-50 toss-up and doesn't feel great about the pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Katona | 0 | 68 of 113 | 60% | 148 of 217 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 10:50 |
| Jesse Butler | 0 | 30 of 82 | 36% | 32 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Katona | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 44 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 |
| Jesse Butler | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brad Katona | 0 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 41 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:49 |
| Jesse Butler | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brad Katona | 0 | 45 of 75 | 60% | 63 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Jesse Butler | 0 | 21 of 68 | 30% | 22 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Katona | 68 of 113 | 60% | 59 of 101 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 27 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 40 of 56 |
| Jesse Butler | 30 of 82 | 36% | 16 of 63 | 9 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Katona | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 9 |
| Jesse Butler | 7 of 11 | 63% | 1 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brad Katona | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 20 |
| Jesse Butler | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brad Katona | 45 of 75 | 60% | 36 of 63 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 26 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 27 |
| Jesse Butler | 21 of 68 | 30% | 14 of 59 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Brad Katona. He notes that Brad is a two-time Ultimate Fighter winner with high fight IQ, good technical striking, and fantastic cardio. He can wrestle if needed, as shown in his last fight. Jesse Butler was knocked out quickly in his UFC debut and has terrible takedown defense. Angelo thinks Brad dominates everywhere and sees no path to victory for Jesse.
Big Brady picks Brad Katona to win by decision. He thinks Katona should not be a -600 favorite but sees no path to victory for Jesse Butler, who is cutting to bantamweight for the first time and has poor takedown defense. He doubts Katona will finish but expects a clear decision win.
Cody picks Katona, noting that Butler has been inactive for two years and was knocked out quickly by Jim Miller in his UFC debut. Katona is a decision machine with six UFC fights all going to decision, and he has faced better competition. Cody expects Katona to use his wrestling and control to win a decision, though he warns that the minus 600 price is steep for a decision fighter.
Daniel expects Katona to win a decision but calls it a dog-or-pass situation due to the steep price. He notes Katona is on a decline and fights on slim margins, while Butler has a nine-inch reach advantage and is dropping two weight classes. However, he doubts Butler's skills are UFC-level.
Jacob picks Brad Katona, but adds a caveat about Jesse Butler's weight cut. He notes that Butler is dropping from 170 to 135, which could be a huge disadvantage. Brad is not a dangerous finisher, but the weight cut might make Butler vulnerable. Jacob thinks Brad will win, possibly by decision, but the weight cut could lead to a finish. He also mentions that Brad's takedown prop might be interesting.
Katona is a solid all-around fighter with great fight IQ and cardio, who should outwork Butler with his grappling and grinding style. Butler has power but was knocked out quickly by Jim Miller. Katona's experience and reliability should lead to a decision win, though the -600 price is steep.
Paul picks Katona, noting that Butler has not impressed and Katona is a proven UFC fighter. He expects Katona to win by decision or submission, but acknowledges the price is high. Paul thinks Katona's wrestling and experience will be too much for Butler.
The Guru initially leans Katona but switches to Butler after considering Butler's massive reach advantage (73-inch reach vs Katona's 64.5). He says Katona has no ability to finish on the feet and looked incapable of inflicting pain against Garrett Armfield. He thinks Butler is too big, strong, and powerful, and will catch Katona and finish him. He acknowledges Butler lost to 'absolute schmucks' but is willing to risk the underdog pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Armfield | 0 | 64 of 155 | 41% | 76 of 172 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 105 of 168 | 62% | 130 of 193 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garrett Armfield | 0 | 20 of 48 | 41% | 23 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 31 of 51 | 60% | 31 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Garrett Armfield | 0 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 27 of 71 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 41 of 66 | 62% | 41 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Garrett Armfield | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 26 of 49 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 33 of 51 | 64% | 58 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Armfield | 64 of 155 | 41% | 49 of 138 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 46 of 126 | 17 of 28 | 1 of 1 |
| Brad Katona | 105 of 168 | 62% | 74 of 131 | 21 of 27 | 10 of 10 | 99 of 162 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garrett Armfield | 20 of 48 | 41% | 14 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 39 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Katona | 31 of 51 | 60% | 16 of 33 | 8 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 31 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Garrett Armfield | 25 of 66 | 37% | 20 of 60 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 20 of 58 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Katona | 41 of 66 | 62% | 28 of 50 | 10 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 41 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Garrett Armfield | 19 of 41 | 46% | 15 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 29 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 |
| Brad Katona | 33 of 51 | 64% | 30 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 45 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Katona, citing his footwork, volume, and cardio as advantages. He expects Katona to take over as Armfield slows down, predicting a 29-28 decision. He initially thought the odds were wide but talked himself into confidence, planning to place a bet.
Big Brady picks Katona, expecting him to fight smart and use wrestling. He notes Armfield has poor takedown defense and has lost by submission twice. He believes Katona's fight IQ and experience against better competition will lead to a decision win. He thinks Katona won't brawl like he did against Cody Gibson.
Cody picks Katona due to his well-rounded skills, technical boxing, and experience. He thinks Armfield lacks the grappling to stick with Katona and will break under pressure. He predicts a late stoppage or decision win for Katona.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Brad Katona but hopes he is wrong. He notes Katona's experience and ability to slow down younger fighters, but worries about his recent war with Cody Gibson and potential decline. Armfield has heavy hands and could knock Katona out, but Vreeland expects Katona to grind out a decision or get a submission.
This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Armfield vs Katona.
I'm taking Katona to win by decision. He has a huge experience advantage and higher fight IQ. He can blend his wrestling behind his striking to catch Armfield by surprise. I think Armfield will be surprised by the pace Katona sets. Katona will give Armfield different looks and outpoint him. However, Armfield has potential and could showcase he's ready for this level, but I'm still going with Katona.
Paul picks Katona, noting his intelligence and well-rounded game. He jokes about Katona's fake Irish accent but respects his skills. He thinks Katona will use takedowns and top control to win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Brad Katona, calling him underrated and noting his wins over undefeated fighters in Brave CF. He criticizes Garrett Armfield's level of competition and questions his consistency. He highlights Katona's toughness, kicks, and takedown ability. He predicts a submission win via rear-naked choke in round two.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Katona | 0 | 160 of 311 | 51% | 173 of 327 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cody Gibson | 0 | 164 of 268 | 61% | 169 of 273 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Katona | 0 | 36 of 87 | 41% | 39 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cody Gibson | 0 | 49 of 85 | 57% | 49 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brad Katona | 0 | 58 of 108 | 53% | 59 of 111 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cody Gibson | 0 | 64 of 94 | 68% | 66 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brad Katona | 0 | 66 of 116 | 56% | 75 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cody Gibson | 0 | 51 of 89 | 57% | 54 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Katona | 160 of 311 | 51% | 116 of 254 | 25 of 37 | 19 of 20 | 127 of 262 | 33 of 49 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Gibson | 164 of 268 | 61% | 130 of 228 | 22 of 27 | 12 of 13 | 134 of 233 | 30 of 35 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Katona | 36 of 87 | 41% | 22 of 70 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 10 | 29 of 76 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Gibson | 49 of 85 | 57% | 39 of 73 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 42 of 78 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brad Katona | 58 of 108 | 53% | 45 of 91 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 7 | 47 of 89 | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Gibson | 64 of 94 | 68% | 47 of 76 | 12 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 52 of 79 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brad Katona | 66 of 116 | 56% | 49 of 93 | 14 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 51 of 97 | 15 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Gibson | 51 of 89 | 57% | 44 of 79 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 40 of 76 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Katona (-168), Gibson (+142)
Round 1
There could be some history in the making for this bantamweight battle that will kick off the ESPN portion of the prelim card. The first of two victors of Season 31 of TUF will be crowned, with the first coming at 135 pounds. Both men are UFC veterans, but Katona (12-2, 2-2 UFC) is the one who could break new ground by becoming the first two-time TUF winner ever. Of note, his opponent, Gibson (19-8, 1-3 UFC), faced future champ and UFC 292 headliner Aljamain Sterling in his promotional debut back in 2014, where he ultimately dropped a decision. The “six-figure contract” and bragging rights will be awarded to the winner, in a matchup that will be governed by referee Marc Goddard. The former show teammates do not decide to clap hands, and instead they rush out towards one another to strike. They do just that, one after the other, until they end up swinging at the same time and ending up in a clinch. Gibson pushes off and lands a pair of hooks, and Katona knocks him back with a counter. Gibson connects with a clean right hand, and Katona shakes it off and gets off a jab. Katona comes up hitting nothing but air when he looses hooks, and Gibson attempts to reach him with a front kick and fails. Katona sticks his man with a left, and Gibson ducks down to get off a body kick. Katona retaliates with a leg kick, and Gibson dips and strikes while avoiding offense that wings towards him. Both fighters are amped up and trading shots, and Gibson pushes out two jabs and dings Katona with a left hand. Gibson trips on his way in, and this allows Katona the briefest amount of time to shake it off. Gibson clubs his man with a right, and Katona stands firm and bashes him with a solid left hook. Gibson is not remotely concerned as he meanders forward, and he swings himself into a clinch. Gibson absorbs a right hand and misses with a second, and Katona counters with a left that marks up Gibson’s eye. Gibson continues to surge forward, hurling offense and making Katona have to match his pace. “The Renegade” mixes things up with a chopping kick, and he shrugs off anything that Katona lands on him to throw his own heavy blows. The two tie up, but nothing comes up it other than a right hand from Gibson on the break. Gibson tries to follow it, and he ends up lobbing strikes that are way off the mark. Katona strings together several low kicks, and they both work the body. The furiously paced round ends with a sharp left from Katona.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gibson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gibson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gibson
Round 2
The bantamweights come back to the middle to start off the round, and Katona is the first to spring into action with a combination of fists. Katona then switches to a leg kick, and he rips a left to the body and nails Gibson with a right over the top. Gibson steels himself and throws back with gravitas, drawing a takedown attempt out of the Canadian. Gibson drills his man with an uppercut, and he pressures forward until they tie up and trade additional uppercuts. Katona does not register a leg kick, and he pops Gibson with a jab. Gibson does the same with his own jab and a follow-up right hand, and the two are taking turns to smack the other around. Katona flicks out a jab, and Gibson counters him with an uppercut and a body shot. Gibson walks face-first into a left hand, and he fires off a right hook and then goes to the body. Gibson again eats a few strikes, and the two start fighting in a phone booth and lay into each other. Gibson slings a right hand that bounces off the temple, and Katona smiles and delivers a right hand on the chin and a clean left shortly thereafter. Gibson lands a leg kick, gets up close to land a body shot, and then backs off when Katona scores with two hooks. Gibson overswings with a left hand, and Katona tags him a few times while he is recoiling. Katona suddenly goes up high with a kick, and frowns when it is blocked. Gibson misses the mark with a huge uppercut, and a few right hands from Gibson have developed some swelling around Katona’s left eye. Gibson targets it with a clubbing right and an elbow, and Katona tries to tie him up for a moment but ends up eating a few clinch strikes before releasing. Katona sits down on a right hand, timing it perfectly as Gibson ducked right into it, and Gibson powers forward to clinch up and recover. Katona jumps at him with a knee, and he fires off a short salvo of strikes that knock Gibson back again. Katona keeps Gibson honest with pawing jabs and a right hand, and Gibson appears to be fading. Katona lines up a right hand down the middle, and the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Katona
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Katona
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Katona
Round 3
Gibson waves to the crowd to get them fired up, and the audience reacts positively. Going into the last round, it could be all tied up, and they treat things as such as they get right after it. Gibson walks through the fast fists that fly at his face so that he can drive a right hand home, and Katona reels but comes back. Katona slides to the side and avoids the huge hooks, and he starts peppering Gibson with jabs. When Gibson changes this up to let go with his own jabs, Katona lets him have it with big punches. Gibson parries a jump knee and a kick to the body, and he drills Katona with a right hand down the pipe. Katona backpedals and eats another one like a plate of poutine, and the two let the other have it. This results in them coming together for a brief clinch, and Katona pushes him back and lets fly a high kick that slaps into the shoulder. Katona kicks with his other leg, and he books Gibson in the calf when he speedily moves. Gibson takes a punch to give one back, and he stings Katona with a right hook. Gibson plants two uppercuts on the chin, and he slides back and pops Katona with a clean right. Katona ignores a leg kick, and he knees the body and sneaks in a short right. Katona loads up and connects with a right, and he digs a few punches to the body and might have hurt Gibson. A few left hands force Gibson to cover his eye, and it is swelling badly. Gibson backs up to the wall as Katona lays into him, until Gibson decides to activate and sling fire back at him. Katona staggers back and then rushes back into action, and the two proceed to give it everything they have in an absolutely terrific brawl. Katona lands, Gibson gets him back, Katona stings him and Gibson shakes Katona up. This back-and-forth trading ends only when they tie up to catch their breath. Gibson pushes off and then sprints at Katona, who is backing away to try to let time expire. Gibson reaches him and blasts him with a few punches, and this all-action thriller comes to a close – unless there is an unexpected “sudden victory” round in the event of a draw. No matter who gets their hand raised, this is an instant “Fight of the Night” frontrunner as well as a scrap that might earn “Fight of the Year” consideration when it is all said and done. The two bantamweights embrace, having put on a display reminiscent of Forrest Griffin vs. Stephan Bonnar.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Katona (29-28 Katona)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Katona (29-28 Katona)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Katona (29-28 Katona)
The Official Result
Brad Katona def. Cody Gibson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Cody expects Katona to win by decision regardless of opponent. He notes Gibson is the better fighter but has a knee injury, and if Rico wins, Katona still wins. He sees Katona as a talented favorite.
Daniel Levi leans toward Brad Katona, believing he should be favored but is not confident. He notes that Katona fights close decisions and that Gibson has a seven-inch reach advantage and is four inches taller. Levi thinks Gibson is live at plus money, especially if he can keep the fight standing and use his reach. He mentions that Gibson had a knee injury on The Ultimate Fighter and wants more information on that.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Azure | 0 | 21 of 60 | 35% | 40 of 83 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 6:23 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 41 of 118 | 34% | 55 of 133 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hunter Azure | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 16 of 25 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Hunter Azure | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 13 of 30 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 18 of 46 | 39% | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Hunter Azure | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 11 of 28 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 21 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Azure | 21 of 60 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 17 of 54 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Katona | 41 of 118 | 34% | 25 of 91 | 11 of 20 | 5 of 7 | 33 of 105 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hunter Azure | 5 of 12 | 41% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Katona | 8 of 22 | 36% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 17 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Hunter Azure | 8 of 23 | 34% | 7 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Katona | 18 of 46 | 39% | 10 of 38 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 43 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Hunter Azure | 8 of 25 | 32% | 7 of 19 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Katona | 15 of 50 | 30% | 9 of 39 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 32 of 56 | 57% | 43 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 55 of 102 | 53% | 215 of 274 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 8:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 49 of 80 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 114 of 122 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:20 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Katona | 0 | 23 of 38 | 60% | 52 of 72 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 32 of 56 | 57% | 21 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 17 of 36 | 12 of 16 | 3 of 4 |
| Brad Katona | 55 of 102 | 53% | 43 of 85 | 6 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 24 of 65 | 4 of 5 | 27 of 32 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 16 of 29 | 55% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 9 | 11 of 20 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Katona | 25 of 54 | 46% | 19 of 43 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 12 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 8 of 11 | 72% | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Brad Katona | 7 of 10 | 70% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 8 of 16 | 50% | 6 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Brad Katona | 23 of 38 | 60% | 18 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 15 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Katona | 0 | 76 of 158 | 48% | 86 of 170 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Matthew Lopez | 0 | 69 of 142 | 48% | 79 of 155 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Katona | 0 | 37 of 54 | 68% | 45 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matthew Lopez | 0 | 28 of 56 | 50% | 30 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 2 | Brad Katona | 0 | 23 of 50 | 46% | 25 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matthew Lopez | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 20 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 3 | Brad Katona | 0 | 16 of 54 | 29% | 16 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Matthew Lopez | 0 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 29 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Katona | 76 of 158 | 48% | 40 of 106 | 12 of 26 | 24 of 26 | 67 of 146 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
| Matthew Lopez | 69 of 142 | 48% | 41 of 99 | 17 of 31 | 11 of 12 | 65 of 134 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Katona | 37 of 54 | 68% | 18 of 33 | 6 of 7 | 13 of 14 | 31 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 |
| Matthew Lopez | 28 of 56 | 50% | 19 of 39 | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brad Katona | 23 of 50 | 46% | 11 of 32 | 3 of 8 | 9 of 10 | 21 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Matthew Lopez | 18 of 35 | 51% | 13 of 26 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Brad Katona | 16 of 54 | 29% | 11 of 41 | 3 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Matthew Lopez | 23 of 51 | 45% | 9 of 34 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 10 | 21 of 46 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Jesse Butler - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Katona | 0 | 68 of 113 | 60% | 148 of 217 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 10:50 |
| Jesse Butler | 0 | 30 of 82 | 36% | 32 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Katona | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 44 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 |
| Jesse Butler | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brad Katona | 0 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 41 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:49 |
| Jesse Butler | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brad Katona | 0 | 45 of 75 | 60% | 63 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Jesse Butler | 0 | 21 of 68 | 30% | 22 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Katona | 68 of 113 | 60% | 59 of 101 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 27 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 40 of 56 |
| Jesse Butler | 30 of 82 | 36% | 16 of 63 | 9 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Katona | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 9 |
| Jesse Butler | 7 of 11 | 63% | 1 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brad Katona | 15 of 24 | 62% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 20 |
| Jesse Butler | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brad Katona | 45 of 75 | 60% | 36 of 63 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 26 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 27 |
| Jesse Butler | 21 of 68 | 30% | 14 of 59 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Brad Katona. He notes that Brad is a two-time Ultimate Fighter winner with high fight IQ, good technical striking, and fantastic cardio. He can wrestle if needed, as shown in his last fight. Jesse Butler was knocked out quickly in his UFC debut and has terrible takedown defense. Angelo thinks Brad dominates everywhere and sees no path to victory for Jesse.
Big Brady picks Brad Katona to win by decision. He thinks Katona should not be a -600 favorite but sees no path to victory for Jesse Butler, who is cutting to bantamweight for the first time and has poor takedown defense. He doubts Katona will finish but expects a clear decision win.
Cody picks Katona, noting that Butler has been inactive for two years and was knocked out quickly by Jim Miller in his UFC debut. Katona is a decision machine with six UFC fights all going to decision, and he has faced better competition. Cody expects Katona to use his wrestling and control to win a decision, though he warns that the minus 600 price is steep for a decision fighter.
Daniel expects Katona to win a decision but calls it a dog-or-pass situation due to the steep price. He notes Katona is on a decline and fights on slim margins, while Butler has a nine-inch reach advantage and is dropping two weight classes. However, he doubts Butler's skills are UFC-level.
Jacob picks Brad Katona, but adds a caveat about Jesse Butler's weight cut. He notes that Butler is dropping from 170 to 135, which could be a huge disadvantage. Brad is not a dangerous finisher, but the weight cut might make Butler vulnerable. Jacob thinks Brad will win, possibly by decision, but the weight cut could lead to a finish. He also mentions that Brad's takedown prop might be interesting.
Katona is a solid all-around fighter with great fight IQ and cardio, who should outwork Butler with his grappling and grinding style. Butler has power but was knocked out quickly by Jim Miller. Katona's experience and reliability should lead to a decision win, though the -600 price is steep.
Paul picks Katona, noting that Butler has not impressed and Katona is a proven UFC fighter. He expects Katona to win by decision or submission, but acknowledges the price is high. Paul thinks Katona's wrestling and experience will be too much for Butler.
The Guru initially leans Katona but switches to Butler after considering Butler's massive reach advantage (73-inch reach vs Katona's 64.5). He says Katona has no ability to finish on the feet and looked incapable of inflicting pain against Garrett Armfield. He thinks Butler is too big, strong, and powerful, and will catch Katona and finish him. He acknowledges Butler lost to 'absolute schmucks' but is willing to risk the underdog pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 1 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Jesse Butler | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jim Miller | 1 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Jesse Butler | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jesse Butler | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jim Miller | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jesse Butler | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: N/A
Round 1
The widest gap in UFC experience will take place in this ultra-late notice lightweight fight. With the most fights (and wins) in company history, Miller (35-17, 1 NC; 24-16, 1 NC UFC) gladly accepted anyone they threw at him, after losing opponents Ludovit Klein and Jared Gordon. Taking the call this week, Butler (12-4, 0-0 UFC) will be making his UFC debut on the heels of five straight wins, including three in the growing Fury FC organization. In comparison, Miller had already competed 20 times in the UFC by the time Butler made his professional debut. This pairing that may not end in the hands of the judges will be officiated by referee Dan Miragliotta, and the fighters are glad to be competing and display this with a glove touch. Butler leads off with a left hand, and he loads up on a right hand and a body kick. Miller avoids all three, but he walks into a big pair of punches as the newcomer is ready for him. “A-10” flies into action with a right hand and a left, and the second stings his foe.
Miller corks back a bomb of a left hand and detonates it on the chin of the debutant, and Butler collapses like a bird that’s just had its wings clipped. Just to punctuate his performance, Miller clobbers the unconscious fighter with a devastating uppercut before Miragliotta can get between them.
Butler is all the way out, and takes some time to regain his senses from the vicious destruction. Miller declares in his post-fight interview that he has few things left he wants to accomplish in the sport, other than landing a kimura on an opponent, fighting at UFC 300 and facing someone he is “a fan” of in the cage. If Miller keeps fighting like that, it will be up to him when he wants to hang it up, as he very likely earned the fastest finish of his illustrious career while extending his record for the most wins in organizational history (25).
The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Jesse Butler R1 0:23 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Gordon, noting he looked sharp against Bobby Green before the headbutt. He thinks Gordon's wrestling and volume striking will be too much for an aging Miller. He is concerned about Gordon being knocked out recently but believes Miller has slowed down. He is not betting this fight.
Cody picks Jared Gordon very reluctantly. He acknowledges Miller's power and submission threat early, but thinks Gordon will work him over slowly if it goes 15 minutes. Cody notes Gordon's wrestling and striking volume should be enough to outpoint Miller. He admits Miller could knock Gordon out, but he's sticking with Gordon as the right pick despite the risk.
Connor picks Miller, hedging against Gordon's recent knockout loss. He admits that in a vacuum he would pick Gordon, but is too worried about Gordon's durability after being knocked out cold by Bobby Green a month ago. Connor notes that Miller still has sharp counter-punching and can finish anyone, and that Gordon's new patient style might play into Miller's hands.
Daniel picks Jared Gordon, expecting him to outwork Jim Miller in the later rounds. He notes that Miller is a potent finisher early, but Gordon's volume and cardio should take over as the fight goes on. He acknowledges the recent KO loss for Gordon but doesn't put much stock in it, and sees a 29-28 decision either way.
Jacob picks Gordon, citing his performance against Bobby Green where he landed clean combinations. He thinks Gordon can point-fight and avoid Miller's power. Jacob notes Miller has power but is flat-footed and hittable. He is confident Gordon wins by outworking Miller.
Gordon puts high volume and pressure, mixing striking, clinching, and grappling. Miller fades in later rounds and relies on early success. Gordon will tie him up, maintain pace, and win a decision. The five-week layoff from the no-contest is not a major concern.
Paul picks Jim Miller as the value side at +155. He notes Miller has one-punch power and a chin that could catch Gordon, who has been knocked out before. Paul mentions Gordon's recent no-contest due to a headbutt and his history of getting knocked out. He thinks Miller could finish early, but if it goes the distance, Gordon might outwork him. Paul is reluctant but sees value in the underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Jesse Butler (referred to as Jared Gordon, but the fight is Jim Miller vs Jesse Butler; likely a mistake in the transcript, but the pick is for Butler). He notes that Butler was looking good before being KO'd by Bobby Green (which was a headbutt). He believes Butler is simply a better fighter than Jim Miller, who he thinks has lost a step, as seen in his loss to Alexander Hernandez. He predicts Butler by decision, 30-27 or 29-28.
Zane picks Gordon in a vacuum, believing Gordon's improved boxing and pressure will be too much for the aging Miller. He notes that Miller's striking falls apart when he is forced to consistently go forward or backward, and Gordon's style can exploit that. However, Zane expresses concern about Gordon's recent knockout loss to Bobby Green just a month ago, which could affect his durability.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo is very confident in Brad Katona. He notes that Brad is a two-time Ultimate Fighter winner with high fight IQ, good technical striking, and fantastic cardio. He can wrestle if needed, as shown in his last fight. Jesse Butler was knocked out quickly in his UFC debut and has terrible takedown defense. Angelo thinks Brad dominates everywhere and sees no path to victory for Jesse.
Big Brady picks Brad Katona to win by decision. He thinks Katona should not be a -600 favorite but sees no path to victory for Jesse Butler, who is cutting to bantamweight for the first time and has poor takedown defense. He doubts Katona will finish but expects a clear decision win.
Cody picks Katona, noting that Butler has been inactive for two years and was knocked out quickly by Jim Miller in his UFC debut. Katona is a decision machine with six UFC fights all going to decision, and he has faced better competition. Cody expects Katona to use his wrestling and control to win a decision, though he warns that the minus 600 price is steep for a decision fighter.
Daniel expects Katona to win a decision but calls it a dog-or-pass situation due to the steep price. He notes Katona is on a decline and fights on slim margins, while Butler has a nine-inch reach advantage and is dropping two weight classes. However, he doubts Butler's skills are UFC-level.
Jacob picks Brad Katona, but adds a caveat about Jesse Butler's weight cut. He notes that Butler is dropping from 170 to 135, which could be a huge disadvantage. Brad is not a dangerous finisher, but the weight cut might make Butler vulnerable. Jacob thinks Brad will win, possibly by decision, but the weight cut could lead to a finish. He also mentions that Brad's takedown prop might be interesting.
Katona is a solid all-around fighter with great fight IQ and cardio, who should outwork Butler with his grappling and grinding style. Butler has power but was knocked out quickly by Jim Miller. Katona's experience and reliability should lead to a decision win, though the -600 price is steep.
Paul picks Katona, noting that Butler has not impressed and Katona is a proven UFC fighter. He expects Katona to win by decision or submission, but acknowledges the price is high. Paul thinks Katona's wrestling and experience will be too much for Butler.
The Guru initially leans Katona but switches to Butler after considering Butler's massive reach advantage (73-inch reach vs Katona's 64.5). He says Katona has no ability to finish on the feet and looked incapable of inflicting pain against Garrett Armfield. He thinks Butler is too big, strong, and powerful, and will catch Katona and finish him. He acknowledges Butler lost to 'absolute schmucks' but is willing to risk the underdog pick.
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