Career Averages - Punahele Soriano
Career Averages - Miguel Baeza
Punahele Soriano - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramiz Brahimaj | 0 | 38 of 67 | 56% | 43 of 73 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 40 of 92 | 43% | 66 of 123 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 5:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ramiz Brahimaj | 0 | 31 of 56 | 55% | 31 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 21 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Ramiz Brahimaj | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 10 of 12 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 26 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 | |
| 3 | Ramiz Brahimaj | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 19 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramiz Brahimaj | 38 of 67 | 56% | 16 of 42 | 21 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 35 of 63 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 40 of 92 | 43% | 29 of 79 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 74 | 14 of 15 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ramiz Brahimaj | 31 of 56 | 55% | 13 of 37 | 17 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 17 of 52 | 32% | 14 of 47 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Ramiz Brahimaj | 5 of 7 | 71% | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 7 of 12 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Ramiz Brahimaj | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 16 of 28 | 57% | 13 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 19 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Punahele Soriano, citing his power, wrestling credentials, and ability to stay safe on top. He acknowledges Ramiz Brahimaj's submission threat but believes Soriano's wrestling and striking will prevail. He notes the line has flipped but remains confident in Soriano.
Big Brady picks Ramiz Brahimaj to defeat Punahele Soriano, citing Brahimaj's recent underdog wins and Soriano's poor takedown defense and cardio. He notes Soriano has success early but fades, and Brahimaj is tough and has good submissions. He predicts Brahimaj will survive the early storm, mix in takedowns, and submit Soriano in the second round. He references Soriano's losses to Dustin Stoltzfus and Nick Maximov as evidence of his vulnerability.
Cody thinks Brahimaj's jiu-jitsu and hometown crowd give him an edge. He notes Soriano's inconsistency and cardio issues. He expects Brahimaj to win by submission or decision.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Soriano. He notes that Soriano's recent wins are more trustworthy and indicative of a step forward, while Brahimaj's wins are against fighters with no defense. Connor also mentions that if Court McGee could grind Brahimaj, Soriano can too.
The host leans towards Soriano, noting his advantage on the feet with power and aggression, and his improved cardio since dropping to welterweight. He believes Soriano can outstrike and outgrapple Brahimaj if his gas tank holds up. However, he is not betting because Brahimaj has proven cardio and could make Soriano work hard, and both fighters are evolving, making it difficult to predict which version shows up.
James picks Ramiz Brahimaj, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and front choke series. He notes that Soriano's wrestling could put him in danger of submissions, and that Brahimaj is the better striker over 15 minutes. James believes Brahimaj will catch Soriano in a front headlock and submit him.
Brahimaj has improved his cardio and takedown defense since moving to Chicago, and he is more calculated now. Soriano is a power puncher but relies on wrestling to grind out wins, and he doesn't threaten submissions. Brahimaj's grappling defense should be good enough to keep it standing or scramble, and he can catch Soriano in a submission. The under 2.5 rounds also makes sense.
Paul thinks Soriano at 170 is a different beast with better cardio and power. He acknowledges Brahimaj's grappling but thinks Soriano's wrestling and strength will be enough. He calls it a pick'em and leans Soriano.
The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, citing his nasty knockout power, solid chin, and physicality. He believes Soriano won't be lost on the feet and can avoid Brahimaj's guillotine. He notes Brahimaj's wins are over lesser competition and that Soriano has dominated grapplers before. He predicts a TKO finish in round one or two.
Zane picks Soriano, believing he will bully Brahimaj with his athleticism and power. He notes that Soriano has options and is too dangerous. If Soriano chooses to wrestle, he might get caught in a submission, but that's a thin chance. Zane trusts Soriano's recent wins more than Brahimaj's.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 39 of 54 | 72% | 163 of 200 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 1 | 1 | 12:35 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 34 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 21 of 30 | 70% | 82 of 105 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 21 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 34 of 44 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 4:13 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 3 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 47 of 51 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 4:17 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 39 of 54 | 72% | 38 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 37 of 49 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 9 of 12 | 75% | 2 of 2 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 21 of 30 | 70% | 21 of 28 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 27 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 6 of 7 | 85% | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 11 of 13 | 84% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 12 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Punahele Soriano | 7 of 11 | 63% | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Soriano (-245), Veretennikov (+200)
Round 1
Two knockout-inclined welterweights will ply their trades against one another with continued preliminary action. A win for Soriano (11-4, 5-4 UFC) would keep him above the dreaded .500 line in the promotion, while Kazakhstan’s Veretennikov (13-6, 1-2 UFC) needs to get past “Story Time” to reach that level. If a brawl ensues, referee Marc Goddard will keep a lid on it as best he can. Before that prospective slugfest, they tap gloves.
Soriano takes right to the center of the cage, hopping back to avoid a stomp kick to the knee and springing ahead to fire off a body kick. He aims a second to the same spot, and when Veretennikov counters, Soriano charges with a double and takes Veretennikov off his feet. Veretennikov bounces off and up in the air, and with Soriano on his knees, he measures and blasts the Hawaiian with a mighty knee to the ribs. Veretennikov settles down and wraps up a guillotine choke with his left arm, and when Soriano lifts him up and slams him down, the choke briefly tightens. Soriano sits up and breaks out of the choke, and he starts raining down left hands. Veretennikov attacks back with his own offense from below, but the power differential is drastic from that position. Soriano keeps pounding on his opponent, briefly trapping his foe’s right arm beneath his knee to open up more shots.
Soriano switches to hammering Veretennikov with elbow after unanswered elbow, and his position tying Veretennikov up while not keeping him flat is pinning Veretennikov to the floor. Soriano’s left hands continue to bludgeon the Kazakhstan native, and even though Goddard is not anywhere close to considering stepping in, these consistent blows are draining him. Soriano holds Veretennikov down with his left arm and beats on his ribs with his right, and the ground-and-pound may not be devastating but it is effective as can be. He continues to drive punches down, developing a pattern similar to iambic pentameter in that he lands a soft blow and then a powerful one, and alternates them like ba-dum ba-dum as the sound of the impact echoes around the ring. The one-sided round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Soriano
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Soriano
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Soriano
Round 2
It takes Soriano 15 seconds to commit to a takedown, and he lifts Veretennikov up in the air and deposits him gingerly to the mat. Veretennikov defends instinctively with a guillotine choke, and Soriano uses this opportunity to trap him with a Von Preux shoulder choke. Veretennikov offers a thumbs-up to show he is fine, and he slowly manages to wriggle his neck out of danger. Soriano reintroduces himself with a blistering elbow from above, and even though he has his own leg stuck between Veretennikov’s, he seems to prefer this position lording over his adversary with ground strikes galore. Veretennikov does what he can to tie up Soriano and slow the beating, and Soriano lowers himself down to pursue an arm-triangle choke.
Veretennikov does not fall victim to the submission, so Soriano hacks at him with a pair of mean-spirited elbows. Soriano’s left hand keeps landing until Veretennikov wills himself to his feet, through sheer horsepower. Soriano trips and Veretennikov pounces, wrapping up a rear-naked choke and tightening it quickly. Soriano explodes out of the bad position and turns the Kazakh over, where he gets back into his groove of methodical ground attacks. Veretennikov flirts with an armbar to keep Soriano honest, but this only allows Soriano to hammer him with four or five long punches. Veretennikov sits up and gets in a position to aim a knee to the sternum, and he drives one or two in before the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Soriano
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Soriano
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Soriano
Round 3
Hands are clapped to open Round 3, and Veretennikov strikes first with a punch to the body. That one strike is all he gets off before Soriano darts in to pursue a takedown. The two twirl around while Soriano hangs onto the single, and Veretennikov grips a guillotine around the side of the head to further threaten. Soriano lifts and slams Veretennikov with an exclamation point, freeing himself from the choke and pushing his hand off Veretennikov’s face. One of Veretennikov’s coaches claims that Soriano is out from the guillotine that Veretennikov is still holding, and Goddard tells that coach to knock it off as Soriano is fine. In fact, the Hawaiian postures up a moment or two later to get out of the sub, and he works the body and head when establishing himself. Goddard asks for more, so Soriano punches Veretennikov in the face.
Soriano stacks Veretennikov up, who is searching for an armbar or otherwise using a high guard to control or attack something. Soriano steps over easily to the side to break up the setup, and he pounds an elbow down on the jaw. As Soriano slows down, Goddard asks for more activity from the fighters. Not wanting to let them just sit around and smooch—figuratively speaking, of course—he stands the fighters up. Soriano takes a deep breath and shoots for a single from afar, and Veretennikov jumps for a guillotine choke and wraps it up while standing. Soriano’s eyes go wide as he is pulled down on top of the Kazakh, and Veretennikov squeezes the choke with all his might. Soriano signals thumbs-up as he slithers his neck out of danger, and he concludes the match with emphatic elbows.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Soriano (30-26 Soriano)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Soriano (30-27 Soriano)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Soriano (30-27 Soriano)
The Official Result
Punahele Soriano def. Nikolay Veretennikov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo trusts that Punahele Soriano will use his wrestling, as a Division III All-American, to win, despite his tendency to sometimes just strike. He notes Soriano has heavy hands but poor takedown defense, while Veretennikov is a powerful striker who can be taken down. His concern is that Soriano might abandon wrestling after a recent knockout win. He is not betting on this fight.
Big Brady likes Soriano, especially at welterweight, where he seems like a different animal with improved cardio and strength. He notes that Veretennikov has awful cardio and a poor ground game, and that Soriano can wrestle him, get him tired, and finish him on the mat. He predicts a second-round TKO for Soriano.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Soriano but noting that it depends on whether Soriano fights well. He hopes to see a more aggressive, active, and wrestling-minded Soriano, as seen in his welterweight debut, but acknowledges that his previous opponents (Miguel Baeza and Eros Medich) were not reliable tests.
Soriano is expected to put his power on Veretennikov early, and if he doesn't finish within the first minute and a half, he will resort to wrestling and grind out a decision win.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Punahele Soriano, comparing him to Francisco Prado who gave Veretennikov trouble. He notes Soriano's power, pressure, and ability to close distance, while Veretennikov stands too upright and struggles with aggressive fighters. He predicts a first-round KO.
Zane picks Soriano because the welterweight move has made him feel bigger, stronger, and more confident, allowing him to wrestle more effectively. He notes that Veretennikov is a bad wrestler who gave up takedowns to Francisco Prado, and Soriano should be able to exploit that. However, he cautions that Soriano is prone to inactivity and single-idea offense.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Uroš Medić | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 1 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Uroš Medić | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 13 of 17 | 76% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
| Uroš Medić | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 13 of 17 | 76% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
| Uroš Medić | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Uroš Medić, citing his superior striking, speed, and power. He notes that Punahele Soriano's only path to victory is wrestling, but Medić's takedown defense is a concern. However, he believes Medić is the better striker and will land clean shots. He has Medić in a parlay with César Almeida, though he expresses some nervousness about the bet.
Big Brady sees a clear path for Soriano: take Medić down. He notes Medić's takedown defense and ground game are questionable, and Soriano looked dominant at welterweight against Baeza, landing 331 strikes. He worries Soriano might strike instead of wrestle, but believes if he uses his wrestling, he can win by TKO or decision. He picks Soriano to win, possibly by TKO via ground and pound.
Cody picks Medić, questioning Soriano's one good performance at 170 against a shot Miguel Baeza. He believes Medić's power and pace will cause Soriano to fatigue. He notes Medić's finishing ability and Soriano's history of gassing.
Connor picks Soriano because he believes Soriano's wrestling and physicality will be effective at welterweight. He notes that Soriano showed a grinding game against Miguel Baeza, and Medić is bad at dealing with sustained pressure and takedowns. While Soriano is uncreative and has shown little improvement, Connor thinks his size and strength advantage will allow him to control the fight. He acknowledges it's not a smart pick but sees a path.
Daniel notes Medić is more technically sound on the feet with better volume and diversity, while Soriano has big power in his left hand but shaky in-between and cardio concerns at welterweight. He thinks Medić will win the minutes, but Soriano could land a big shot or use wrestling. He picks Medić but is not interested in betting.
Lucrative James picks Uroš Medić to win, citing Medić's superior striking and cleaner kickboxing. He acknowledges Soriano's wrestling advantage and power, but believes Medić's skill on the feet will prevail over three rounds. He notes Soriano's cardio issues and that Medić has decent takedown defense. He also mentions that Soriano moved down from 185 and Medić moved up from 155, but still favors Medić's higher ceiling.
Soriano is a solid wrestler as shown in his welterweight debut against Miguel Baeza. He will get to his grappling, keep Medić on his back, and grind out a decision win as long as he doesn't get finished early.
Paul picks Soriano as a plus-money underdog, citing his impressive wrestling at 170 in his last fight. He expects fireworks and has bet under 1.5 rounds. He acknowledges Medić's danger but likes Soriano's path via takedowns.
The Guru picks Medić, noting his size as a big lightweight at welterweight, his KO of Tim Means, and his better technique and speed. He criticizes Soriano's recent performances, including losses to Dustin Stoltzfus and a poor showing against Miguel Baeza. He predicts an early TKO for Medić.
Zane picks Medić because he is a more dangerous finisher and expects Soriano to struggle to impose his game plan. Medić's movement and kicks could frustrate Soriano, who is hittable and plotting. Zane notes that Soriano's win over Baeza was more about Baeza's poor performance than Soriano's skill. Medić's ability to keep the fight in open space and avoid being clinched gives him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 22 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 144 of 175 | 82% | 331 of 394 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 10:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 42 of 59 | 71% | 54 of 80 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 49 of 59 | 83% | 93 of 111 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:46 | |
| 3 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 53 of 57 | 92% | 184 of 203 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 7 of 12 | 58% | 0 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 144 of 175 | 82% | 129 of 158 | 13 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 136 of 163 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 42 of 59 | 71% | 40 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 36 of 49 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 49 of 59 | 83% | 43 of 52 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 48 of 58 | |
| 3 | Punahele Soriano | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 53 of 57 | 92% | 46 of 50 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 52 of 56 |
Angelo picks Punahele Soriano, citing Miguel Baeza's three-fight losing streak and two-year layoff, with his last two losses being knockouts. He notes that Soriano has power and wrestling, and while he has been losing, he has been active. He thinks Baeza's chin issues and ring rust are too much to overlook, and Soriano's power could be the difference.
Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza to win by second-round submission. He notes that Baeza is more well-rounded and skilled, but his chin is worrisome after knockout losses. He expects Baeza to survive the first round and then take over as Soriano gasses. He calls it a 'club and sub' finish.
Cody picks Baeza, noting that Soriano has poor cardio and takedown defense, and is moving down to welterweight after struggling at middleweight. Baeza is a BJJ black belt who has been focusing on grappling during his layoff. Cody believes if Baeza can survive the first round, he can take Soriano down and dominate. He expects Baeza to win by decision or submission.
Daniel leans Baeza as the better talent with a nasty jab and calf kicks, but questions his chin and confidence after recent knockout losses. He notes Soriano has power and could knock Baeza out if Baeza's defense is poor. He calls it a pass due to too many question marks.
Jacob picks Miguel Baeza, disagreeing with Angelo. He argues that even at 60-70% of his former self, Baeza has the tools to box up Soriano, who is coming down in weight. He notes that Baeza is fast and has good grappling, and Soriano lacks the speed to counter him. Jacob has placed a big bet on Baeza, believing he will style on Soriano.
Baeza is more complete with his calf kicking and striking, and Soriano's weight cut to welterweight may slow him down. Baeza should chip away and win a decision, but his durability and long layoff are concerns. Soriano has early KO power, so a hedge on Soriano by KO is possible. Leaning Baeza but likely passing.
Paul picks Soriano by knockout in round one, noting that Baeza has been knocked out before and Soriano has power. He acknowledges Soriano's cardio issues but thinks the move to welterweight could help. Paul bet Soriano by knockout at plus 300 and round one knockout at plus 675, expecting an early finish.
The Guru picks Baeza because he thinks Soriano is a middleweight moving down to welterweight, which won't work. He notes Baeza is a big welterweight with reach advantage and won't be bullied. He mentions Baeza took Colby Covington to the third round and didn't get smoked early, so Soriano's power shouldn't be a problem. He predicts a second or third-round finish for Baeza.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 31 of 73 | 42% | 33 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 64 of 123 | 52% | 78 of 140 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 2:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 41 of 79 | 51% | 43 of 82 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 35 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 31 of 73 | 42% | 18 of 56 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 30 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 64 of 123 | 52% | 24 of 79 | 23 of 27 | 17 of 17 | 60 of 116 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 22 of 47 | 46% | 13 of 35 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 41 of 79 | 51% | 15 of 51 | 17 of 19 | 9 of 9 | 37 of 72 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 9 of 26 | 34% | 5 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 23 of 44 | 52% | 9 of 28 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 23 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by first-round knockout, citing Soriano's power and wrestling advantage. He notes Soriano has eight knockouts, seven in the first round, and that Stoltzfus is hittable. However, he expresses concern about Soriano's cardio if the fight gets extended, but believes Soriano will finish early.
Cody picks Soriano, noting his power and wrestling base. He thinks Soriano's size advantage is not as big as usual and that Stoltzfus's chin is questionable. He mentions Soriano's cardio issues but believes he can finish early. He likes the Soriano round one KO prop at +335.
Lucrative James picks Punahele Soriano, stating that Dustin Stoltzfus is too hitable and has poor striking defense. He believes Soriano will knock him out, likely in round one. He notes that Soriano is a deserved favorite and could be even higher than the current line.
Soriano has explosive power and typically finishes opponents early. Stoltzfus has a chin issue and was knocked out quickly in his last fight. Soriano is expected to crash the pocket and land big shots for a knockout. However, his gas tank is a concern if the fight goes past the first round. The minus 300 price is steep, so a round 1 prop or under 1.5 rounds is recommended.
Paul picks Soriano but is not super confident. He thinks Soriano's wrestling and power should be enough against Stoltzfus, who has no real X-factor. He notes Soriano's cardio issues but believes the lower level of competition will allow Soriano to look better. He also mentions Stoltzfus's COVID issues and questionable chin.
The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, citing his finishing ability and athleticism. He believes Dustin Stoltzfus lacks knockout power and is coming off a long layoff and a KO loss. He predicts Soriano will get a KO in the second round or late in the first.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 39 of 107 | 36% | 39 of 107 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 82 of 128 | 64% | 82 of 128 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 18 of 46 | 39% | 18 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 35 of 62 | 56% | 35 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 21 of 61 | 34% | 21 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 47 of 66 | 71% | 47 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 39 of 107 | 36% | 35 of 101 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 98 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 82 of 128 | 64% | 56 of 101 | 14 of 15 | 12 of 12 | 76 of 120 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 18 of 46 | 39% | 18 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 35 of 62 | 56% | 22 of 49 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 34 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 21 of 61 | 34% | 17 of 55 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 53 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 47 of 66 | 71% | 34 of 52 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 59 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Soriano (-165), Kopylov (+140)
Round 1
This middleweight scrap may not last long, and referee Kerry Hatley will need to keep his head on a swivel. Dueling 89% finish rates for Soriano (9-2, 3-2 UFC) and Kopylov (9-2, 1-2 UFC) crash into each other like ships in a storm, although neither man has ever been stopped by strikes. Before the fists meet faces, the fists bump into one another respectfully. Kopylov is quick to back off as Soriano comes out guns blazing, with a pair of overhand rights getting his attention in a hurry. “Story Time” suddenly goes for a double, and when that fails, he wings a huge left hand. Kopylov blocks the worst of the haymakers flying towards him, but Soriano is still gunning for him with that big left. Kopylov sticks out a jab to disrupt the swinging hammers, sticking and moving to make Soriano hit air. Kopylov chops at the lead calf and blocks high as he expects a big left aimed at him. He is correct, as it collides off the guard and he resets. Kopylov sticks out several jabs, chaining them into a right hand, and Soriano grits his teeth and slugs right back. Kopylov is more content to touch while Soriano is swinging for the bleachers, and this allows Kopylov to see the strikes coming and block the dangerous ones. The Russian pierces out a jab, splitting the guard repeatedly and stifling the worst of the worst that is fired his direction. The jab continues to find its home, a piston connecting with the nose again and again. Soriano whiffs on a bomb and bounces off the cage wall, and he takes a deep breath just three minutes into the match. Soriano winds up and misses on another overhand left, with Kopylov composed and moving comfortably. Kopylov chips at the leg and paws out jabs, and he shuts down a tackling double-leg entry from the Hawaiian. Kopylov leaves a jab out too long, and Soriano reaches him with a huge left. When Soriano advances, Kopylov turns the tables on him with his own tackle of a takedown that sets his man down briefly. When Soriano scrambles, Kopylov just lets him back up, and the two get back after it on the feet. Kopylov sticks “Story Time” with a pair of punches, and he backs off until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Round 2
The middleweights touch ‘em up to start, and Kopylov decides to lead the dance initially. With a fast chain of punches, he knocks Soriano back, and forces Soriano to attack from a different angle. Soriano slows himself down and starts loading up on single shots, but this lets Kopylov pop him again and again with a stinging jab. Soriano swats the jab out of the way to close in and fire, and he unloads a fastball of a left hand that just misses the mark by a matter of millimeters. Kopylov spins to crack the body like a whip with a spinning back kick, and Soriano takes it flush and groans. Soriano lets them close in so that he can pound a few uppercuts on the nose, and this marks up Kopylov’s nose. Kopylov keeps his right hand out, further disrupting the Hawaiian and frustrating him. Kopylov dogs body shots, and he rips a kick to the ribs as Soriano winces in pain. The Russian knows the body is the weakness, and he targets the majority of his blows at the midsection. Soriano, with every bit of his remaining energy, swings recklessly and keeps Kopylov honest enough to not put him away.
Kopylov takes a breath, and he smashes his shin in the Hawaiian's liver. Soriano is barely on his feet, frozen in time momentarily as he cannot even take a breath. Kopylov chains together a long salvo of punches, and Soriano shells up and bends over but does not go down. Knowing that there is nothing more Soriano has to offer, Hatley mercifully halts the fight.
With that sterling performance in the books, Kopylov has now become the first fighter to ever finish the durable Hawaiian.
The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Punahele Soriano R2 3:19 via TKO (Body Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Soriano because he has more ways to win, including wrestling and power. He notes Kopylov is the better striker but Soriano's wrestling could be the difference. However, he doesn't trust Soriano to execute and advises not betting. He mentions Soriano's takedown defense issues and Kopylov's vulnerability to takedowns.
Big Brady picks Roman Kopylov as an upset, citing Kopylov's technical striking advantage and better cardio. He notes that Soriano has a wrestling background but rarely uses it, and if the fight stays on the feet, Kopylov has more tools and body kicks. He worries about Soriano's power but trusts Kopylov to outwork him as the fight goes on, predicting a decision win. He acknowledges Soriano could knock out Kopylov but leans toward Kopylov's consistency.
Cody leans towards Kopylov, agreeing that Soriano's cardio is a major issue. He notes Soriano fades after 7.5 minutes and doesn't wrestle due to gas concerns. He sees Kopylov as live if the fight goes the distance, and mentions a possible Kopylov by decision bet.
Connor picks Soriano because he is insanely tough and has many ways to win, including powerful striking and a solid wrestling background. He notes that Soriano can soak up damage and has a good left hand and low kicks. However, Connor expresses concern that Soriano doesn't always use his wrestling and can be inconsistent, but believes his toughness and power will carry him against Kopylov's predictable boxing.
Jacob picks Kopylov as a live underdog, believing he is the better striker and may even wrestle. He notes Soriano's poor defensive wrestling and Kopylov's toughness. He thinks Soriano can't be trusted and Kopylov has good value. He mentions Kopylov's camp and takedown defense.
Paul picks Kopylov as an underdog, citing Soriano's poor cardio and reluctance to wrestle. He notes Kopylov's improved performance against Dichirico and believes he can outwork Soriano with leg kicks and combinations. He mentions a possible Kopylov by decision prop at +430.
Zane picks Soriano because he is too tough and has too many other options, including wrestling and low kicks. He notes that Kopylov is a predictable boxer who struggles with opponents who can mix in kicks and takedowns. Zane also points out that Soriano's wrestling background gives him an edge if he chooses to use it, and that Kopylov's lack of defensive wrestling is a liability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 17 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 11 of 28 | 39% | 13 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 16 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 1 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 17 of 35 | 48% | 8 of 25 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 11 of 22 | 50% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 11 of 28 | 39% | 3 of 19 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 6 of 7 | 85% | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dalcha Lungiambula, citing his power, takedown defense, and durability. He notes Soriano's poor takedown defense and that Lungiambula looked great in his last fight before a bad decision. He placed a half-unit moneyline bet and plans an inside the distance decision no action bet.
Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by decision. He notes that both fighters have poor cardio, but Soriano's is slightly better. He thinks Soriano wins the first round and may take over later. He mentions that Soriano has better finishing ability but expects the fight to go to decision due to both fighters' durability. He does not recommend betting Soriano at -275.
Cody picks Soriano but with low confidence, noting that both fighters are untrustworthy. He acknowledges Soriano's durability and power, but also his poor wrestling and cardio. He believes Soriano's chin and training at a world-class gym give him an edge, but he won't bet this fight.
Daniel Levi leans Punahele Soriano but is not confident at the -225 price. He notes both fighters have knockout power and that Soriano is cleaner and more well-rounded, but Lungiambula is dangerous. He considers it closer than the odds suggest and wants more info on sparring sessions before committing.
Paul also picks Soriano but with hesitation, citing Lungiambula's tendency to gas out and make mistakes. He notes that Soriano has a good chin and has shown improvement. However, he agrees the -240 price is too steep and will not bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano over Dalcha Lungiambula, citing Soriano's toughness and power. He notes Lungiambula's poor cardio and that Soriano is difficult to finish. He predicts Soriano will catch Lungiambula with body shots and knees in the clinch, leading to a second-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Maximov | 0 | 45 of 63 | 71% | 74 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 29 of 45 | 64% | 60 of 82 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 1 | 1 | 8:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Maximov | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 22 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 10 of 20 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 2:16 | |
| 2 | Nick Maximov | 0 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 32 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 19 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 3 | Nick Maximov | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 20 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 11 of 12 | 91% | 31 of 35 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 4:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Maximov | 45 of 63 | 71% | 28 of 46 | 17 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 23 |
| Punahele Soriano | 29 of 45 | 64% | 19 of 33 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 31 | 10 of 10 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Maximov | 15 of 21 | 71% | 11 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 8 |
| Punahele Soriano | 5 of 14 | 35% | 2 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nick Maximov | 21 of 32 | 65% | 16 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 |
| Punahele Soriano | 13 of 19 | 68% | 11 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nick Maximov | 9 of 10 | 90% | 1 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 9 |
| Punahele Soriano | 11 of 12 | 91% | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 |
Angelo picks Punahele Soriano as a striker with power. He notes Soriano's takedown defense is untested but his striking is far superior to Maximov's. Maximov is a BJJ specialist with raw striking and okay takedowns. Angelo expects Soriano to win on the feet, but warns he gassed against Allen. If Soriano gasses, Maximov could take over, making it a live bet situation.
Cody agrees with Soriano but is hesitant due to Soriano's suspect cardio. He notes that Maximov has a wrestling background and could take the fight to the ground, where he has slick transitions. However, Soriano has the striking advantage and power. Cody worries that if Maximov gets an early takedown, Soriano may gas, but he still leans Soriano.
Daniel Levi picks Punahele Soriano, emphasizing his All-American wrestling background which should allow him to stuff Maximov's takedowns. He notes Soriano has faced tougher competition like Dusko Todorovic and Brendan Allen, while Maximov is less tested. Levi expects Soriano to land big shots after stuffing takedowns, potentially getting a finish. He respects Maximov's toughness but sees Soriano as the more proven fighter.
Lock of the Night picks Soriano, expecting him to defend takedowns and land enough on the feet to win a decision. He notes Soriano's wrestling background and power, but questions his durability if extended. He thinks Maximov will close distance irresponsibly and leave himself open to shots, but Soriano may not knock him out. He likes Soriano by decision at +350 and the over 1.5 rounds.
Paul thinks Soriano has the striking and power advantage, and if he keeps the fight upright, he will likely finish Maximov. He notes that Maximov's stand-up is a work in progress and that his grappling transitions looked solid but he struggled with cardio. Paul is concerned about Soriano's cardio but still picks him because Maximov's takedown entries may not be good enough.
The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, criticizing Nick Maximov's lack of athleticism and power. He expects Soriano to stuff takedowns and land a big overhand right, knocking Maximov out in the first round. He references Maximov's fight with Cody Brundage where he did no damage, and calls the matchup a 'mismatch'.
Miguel Baeza - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 22 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 144 of 175 | 82% | 331 of 394 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 10:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 42 of 59 | 71% | 54 of 80 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 49 of 59 | 83% | 93 of 111 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:46 | |
| 3 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 53 of 57 | 92% | 184 of 203 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 7 of 12 | 58% | 0 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 144 of 175 | 82% | 129 of 158 | 13 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 136 of 163 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 42 of 59 | 71% | 40 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 36 of 49 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 49 of 59 | 83% | 43 of 52 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 48 of 58 | |
| 3 | Punahele Soriano | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 53 of 57 | 92% | 46 of 50 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 52 of 56 |
Angelo picks Punahele Soriano, citing Miguel Baeza's three-fight losing streak and two-year layoff, with his last two losses being knockouts. He notes that Soriano has power and wrestling, and while he has been losing, he has been active. He thinks Baeza's chin issues and ring rust are too much to overlook, and Soriano's power could be the difference.
Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza to win by second-round submission. He notes that Baeza is more well-rounded and skilled, but his chin is worrisome after knockout losses. He expects Baeza to survive the first round and then take over as Soriano gasses. He calls it a 'club and sub' finish.
Cody picks Baeza, noting that Soriano has poor cardio and takedown defense, and is moving down to welterweight after struggling at middleweight. Baeza is a BJJ black belt who has been focusing on grappling during his layoff. Cody believes if Baeza can survive the first round, he can take Soriano down and dominate. He expects Baeza to win by decision or submission.
Daniel leans Baeza as the better talent with a nasty jab and calf kicks, but questions his chin and confidence after recent knockout losses. He notes Soriano has power and could knock Baeza out if Baeza's defense is poor. He calls it a pass due to too many question marks.
Jacob picks Miguel Baeza, disagreeing with Angelo. He argues that even at 60-70% of his former self, Baeza has the tools to box up Soriano, who is coming down in weight. He notes that Baeza is fast and has good grappling, and Soriano lacks the speed to counter him. Jacob has placed a big bet on Baeza, believing he will style on Soriano.
Baeza is more complete with his calf kicking and striking, and Soriano's weight cut to welterweight may slow him down. Baeza should chip away and win a decision, but his durability and long layoff are concerns. Soriano has early KO power, so a hedge on Soriano by KO is possible. Leaning Baeza but likely passing.
Paul picks Soriano by knockout in round one, noting that Baeza has been knocked out before and Soriano has power. He acknowledges Soriano's cardio issues but thinks the move to welterweight could help. Paul bet Soriano by knockout at plus 300 and round one knockout at plus 675, expecting an early finish.
The Guru picks Baeza because he thinks Soriano is a middleweight moving down to welterweight, which won't work. He notes Baeza is a big welterweight with reach advantage and won't be bullied. He mentions Baeza took Colby Covington to the third round and didn't get smoked early, so Soriano's power shouldn't be a problem. He predicts a second or third-round finish for Baeza.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Fialho | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 1 | 32 of 56 | 57% | 32 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | André Fialho | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 1 | 32 of 56 | 57% | 32 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Fialho | 24 of 58 | 41% | 15 of 48 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 32 of 56 | 57% | 19 of 41 | 5 of 7 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 49 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | André Fialho | 24 of 58 | 41% | 15 of 48 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 32 of 56 | 57% | 19 of 41 | 5 of 7 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 49 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Miguel Baeza, citing his more technical striking and fantastic grappling. He notes that Baeza has good fight IQ and uses kicks well to wear down opponents. He acknowledges Baeza's chin issues but believes his technical edge will be the difference. He warns that Baeza needs to avoid Fialho's power.
Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza to win by decision. He cites Baeza's speed, volume, cardio, and BJJ black belt as advantages. He notes that Fialho has power but is hittable, low-volume, and fades as the fight goes on. Brady expects Baeza to outpoint Fialho over three rounds, though he acknowledges Fialho's puncher's chance.
Cody leans towards Fialho, noting his improved striking at Sanford MMA and his power. He thinks Fialho can clip Baeza, who has shown durability issues in prolonged striking battles. However, he lacks high confidence, especially if the fight extends into later rounds.
Daniel Levi leans Miguel Baeza but is hesitant due to Baeza's confidence after two losses, including a KO. He notes Baeza's calf kicks, range, and jiu-jitsu black belt, but worries about his mental state and whether he will be hesitant early. Fialho is dangerous early with power and aggression, but Levi expects Baeza to take over as the fight progresses if he survives the initial onslaught. He is not willing to lay the -185 price.
Paul does not make a clear pick, calling it a 'dogger pass'. He notes both fighters have power and chin issues, and expects a striking battle that may not go the distance. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds and fight doesn't go to decision as potential props.
The MMA Guru picks André Fialho by first-round KO. He criticizes Miguel Baeza's chin and notes his recent KO loss to Khaos Williams. He believes Fialho's training at Sanford MMA and full camp will lead to an early finish, as Baeza may be hesitant after his last KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khaos Williams | 0 | 31 of 56 | 55% | 32 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 5 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 1 | 49 of 131 | 37% | 60 of 145 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khaos Williams | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 5 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:39 | |
| 2 | Khaos Williams | 0 | 23 of 40 | 57% | 23 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 26 of 77 | 33% | 26 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Khaos Williams | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 1 | 7 of 22 | 31% | 7 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khaos Williams | 31 of 56 | 55% | 13 of 35 | 1 of 4 | 17 of 17 | 31 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 49 of 131 | 37% | 23 of 94 | 6 of 7 | 20 of 30 | 36 of 113 | 2 of 4 | 11 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khaos Williams | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 16 of 32 | 50% | 10 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 7 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 11 | |
| 2 | Khaos Williams | 23 of 40 | 57% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 14 of 14 | 23 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 26 of 77 | 33% | 8 of 52 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 19 | 25 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Khaos Williams | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 7 of 22 | 31% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Hang on tight, welterweight flamethrowers are on deck. Baeza (10-1, 3-1 UFC) will be looking to bounce back from the first defeat in his career against “Khaos” Williams (12-2, 3-1 UFC). Both men are known for their knockout power while neither has ever been knocked out, so something may have to give. Referee Chris Tognoni is lacing his running shoes as we speak, and he steels himself as they touch gloves before throwing down. Williams is the first to give pressure, and he comes forward while Baeza is circling all the way around the cage for a full revolution. Williams looks to slow him with a leg kick, but Baeza is out of harm’s way as he continues to circle. Williams loads up on a power punch, only to hit air. Baeza charges in, and when Williams is there to load up and crack him, Baeza zips away. Williams attempts to cut Baeza off, but he resorts to simply stalking his man down. Williams scores with a calf kick, and Baeza does not answer or do anything but retreat as he takes another kick to the same spot. Williams plods forward, and he walks face-first into a left and a right hook that snap Williams’ head back. Williams cracks Baeza, Baeza cracks him back, and they are throwing bombs suddenly and their eyes are wide open. They both back off and return to the predator-prey relationship of Williams giving chase, until Baeza turns it around on him with a left hand and a loud kick to the body. A body kick from Baeza makes him fall over, and Williams pounces on top and starts delivering ground-and-pound. “Caramel Thunder” dives for a heel hook, and he transitions the submission to a kneebar as Baeza tries to scramble and buck. Williams finds a way to land a big punch from on top, and Baeza keeps pursuing the foot lock. Williams sits up and falls into an inverted heel hook position, and he does not seem concerned as he aims punches to break the grip. Baeza rolls over as he torques the leg, and Williams sits up to land bombs that are doing damage and making Baeza turn away. Williams pounds away until the bell, and does not flinch when standing back up.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Williams
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Baeza
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Williams
Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves before coming out swinging, and like the last round, Williams assumes control of the driver’s seat as he advances without fear. Williams aims a half-hearted kick to the knee, and Baeza replies with one much harder. Williams does not let him get away with it, with a few more kicks on the inside of his foe’s leg. They both trade calf kicks, and Williams looks for a one-two when they settle. Baeza responds in kind, and he quickly flips his front foot up to smack Williams in the face. The impact from “Caramel Thunder” is not the same as Marlon Vera against Frankie Edgar lats week, as Williams eats it like candy and continues moving forward. One low kick from Williams goes south of the border, and Baeza thinks about fighting through it but Tognoni gives him time to recover both mentally and physically. About 45 seconds elapse before Baeza is ready to go back, and they start swinging for the fences. A pair of punches get Williams’ attention, and he slams his shin into Baeza’s leg. Baeza goes after the same strike, and they step back to measure one another as the damage from these strikes registers. Baeza connects with a clean head kick and one to the knee, and Williams’ knee may be compromised as he takes a funny step and switches stances after it. Baeza continues to target the same spot, and Williams aims to pay him back but Baeza’s are more accurate and appear to be more powerful. Baeza sits down on a body kick, and they crash together to throw hands. Baeza wobbles from a left hand but he comes right forward to engage, while Williams ducks back to kick at him. When Baeza scores a thudding calf kick, Williams attacks with a trio of punches that fluster Baeza. They both swing for the fences, and Williams grabs hold of him and pushes him into the wall. Williams comes up with a knee to the body, but it does not hit the body, and instead smashes square into Baeza’s cup. Baeza falls to his knees and cries out in pain, and Tognoni tells him to take all the time he needs. Tognoni then goes over to Williams and gives him his final warning, telling him that even though it was accidental, he has landed two fouls – some may call for a point deduction as it was the second groin shot, but Tognoni lets it remain as a warning. Baeza is clearly compromised, and he works his way back up to his feet. After 100 seconds, he is good to go again. Williams comes out with a big right hand that rings Baeza’s bell, and after a tense exchange, the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Baeza
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Baeza
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Baeza
Round 3
The two 170ers touch ‘em up to open the last round, and Baeza just misses with a front kick to start off. When that whiffs, he kicks low, and Williams may be damaged on his front wheel but he is not showing it. They clash together and Williams swings for the bleachers, but Baeza wears them well and comes back at him. “Khaos the Oxfighter” misses with a spinning kick, and he follows the momentum with another kick. Baeza backpedals, chops at the calf, and then targets a second one to the same spot.
At that exact moment, Williams bites down on his mouthpiece and throws three vicious hooks. The third one, a right hand right on the button, smashes into the side of Baeza’s jaw and sends him crashing down to the canvas. Williams leaps down to finish the job, and as he is battering his fallen foe with ground-and-pound, Tognoni jumps in to pull him off as he calls the fight.
After regaining his faculties, Baeza appears to complain, but he is wobbly on his feet when he does manage to get back up. Williams is now the first man to finish “Caramel Thunder” as a pro, doing so after absorbing some serious punishment to that point.
The Official Result
Kalinn Williams def. Miguel Baeza R3 1:02 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo slightly leans toward Khaos Williams due to his knockout power, but is worried about Baeza's potential grappling. He notes that Williams has no wrestling data in the UFC, making his takedown defense an unknown. Angelo thinks the odds should be flipped and that Williams has the power and speed advantage.
Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza but is hesitant, acknowledging Khaos Williams' power and better chin. He notes Baeza has been hurt in previous fights and questions his chin. However, Brady sees a path for Baeza using his BJJ black belt to exploit Williams' poor takedown defense, mixing in takedowns to win a decision.
Cody believes Baeza will improve after his first loss and has a good game plan: low calf kicks and footwork. He notes Khaos Williams is stationary and heavy on his lead foot, making him vulnerable to leg kicks. He expects Baeza to win by decision or late TKO.
Daniel Levi picks Khaos Williams as the underdog, arguing that Williams has the power advantage and can capitalize on Baeza's tendency to get hit (5 strikes absorbed per minute). He notes that both fighters are hittable but gives Williams the edge in power and believes he can land a fight-changing shot. Levi acknowledges Baeza's calf kicks and black belt but thinks Williams's physicality and pressure will be the difference.
Jacob picks Miguel Baeza, believing he is the cleaner striker and will counter Williams' loaded punches. He notes that Baeza has grappling as a backup and is a jiu-jitsu black belt. Jacob thinks Williams will chase a knockout and get countered, and he loves Baeza in this matchup.
Paul thinks Baeza is a clean striker with volume, but worries about his chin being checked. He notes that Khaos Williams has knockout power but hasn't shown it recently. He leans Baeza but has low confidence.
The Guru picks Miguel Baeza by third-round submission (D'Arce choke). He expects Williams to have early success with power shots, but Baeza's calf kicks and body work will wear Williams down. In the third round, Baeza will sprawl on a takedown and secure the choke.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 121 of 270 | 44% | 122 of 271 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 104 of 249 | 41% | 104 of 249 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 15 of 52 | 28% | 15 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 39 of 73 | 53% | 39 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 47 of 107 | 43% | 47 of 107 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 27 of 66 | 40% | 27 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 59 of 111 | 53% | 60 of 112 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 38 of 110 | 34% | 38 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 121 of 270 | 44% | 98 of 245 | 12 of 13 | 11 of 12 | 121 of 270 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 104 of 249 | 41% | 36 of 166 | 24 of 34 | 44 of 49 | 104 of 249 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15 of 52 | 28% | 12 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 39 of 73 | 53% | 11 of 43 | 8 of 10 | 20 of 20 | 39 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 47 of 107 | 43% | 38 of 98 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 47 of 107 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 27 of 66 | 40% | 7 of 37 | 7 of 12 | 13 of 17 | 27 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 59 of 111 | 53% | 48 of 100 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 59 of 111 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 38 of 110 | 34% | 18 of 86 | 9 of 12 | 11 of 12 | 38 of 110 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady questions whether Ponzinibbio is the same fighter after a long layoff and poor performance against Li Jingliang, where he looked hesitant and was outlanded. He notes Baeza is on the rise, improving each fight, though his competition has been weak. He believes Baeza hits hard and can knock out Ponzinibbio, who has been knocked out twice before. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Baeza by KO.
Cody picks Ponzinibbio as a dog, citing his experience and higher level of competition. He notes Baeza's striking is one-at-a-time and he hasn't faced anyone like Ponzinibbio. Cody is hesitant because Ponzinibbio looked bad against Li and has injury history, but he gives him one more chance. He thinks Ponzinibbio's physical strength and experience will be enough.
Daniel picks Baeza because he believes Ponzinibbio may never be the same after his health issues and three-year layoff. He notes that Baeza is a special prospect with big power, good left hook, calf kicks, and a black belt in jiu-jitsu, training with Colby Covington. Daniel points out that Ponzinibbio looked slow and hesitant in his last fight against Li Jingliang, and his defensive flaws are now more exposed. He acknowledges that Ponzinibbio could look better with the ring rust gone, but the uncertainty leads him to favor Baeza, predicting a knockout.
Paul leans toward Baeza, citing Ponzinibbio's long layoff and poor performance against Jingliang Li. He notes Ponzinibbio's suspect chin and low hands. Paul thinks Baeza's youth and power could be key, but acknowledges Ponzinibbio's experience. He is not confident and calls it a lean.
The Guru picks Miguel Baeza, citing Ponzinibbio's long layoff due to injuries and his recent KO loss to Li Jingliang. He thinks Baeza has improved greatly, with good grappling, submissions, and striking IQ. He predicts Baeza will rock Ponzinibbio and finish by TKO in the first round, noting Ponzinibbio made technical mistakes against Li.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 40 of 73 | 54% | 43 of 82 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:09 |
| Takashi Sato | 0 | 15 of 58 | 25% | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Baeza | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 19 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Takashi Sato | 0 | 8 of 29 | 27% | 8 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Miguel Baeza | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 24 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Takashi Sato | 0 | 7 of 29 | 24% | 7 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Baeza | 40 of 73 | 54% | 16 of 40 | 20 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 32 of 65 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 |
| Takashi Sato | 15 of 58 | 25% | 10 of 49 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Baeza | 18 of 37 | 48% | 5 of 17 | 10 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Takashi Sato | 8 of 29 | 27% | 5 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Miguel Baeza | 22 of 36 | 61% | 11 of 23 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Takashi Sato | 7 of 29 | 24% | 5 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 33 of 61 | 54% | 33 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Matt Brown | 2 | 37 of 73 | 50% | 42 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Baeza | 0 | 33 of 59 | 55% | 33 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Matt Brown | 1 | 32 of 65 | 49% | 37 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Miguel Baeza | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Brown | 1 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Baeza | 33 of 61 | 54% | 25 of 51 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 44 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 37 of 73 | 50% | 21 of 54 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 12 | 29 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Baeza | 33 of 59 | 55% | 25 of 49 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 42 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 32 of 65 | 49% | 17 of 48 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 11 | 25 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | |
| 2 | Miguel Baeza | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza by first-round knockout, but is hesitant. He notes that Baeza's leg kicks are a huge factor and that Brown is dangerous on the feet and has a path to victory via takedowns. He compares the fight to the Askarov vs. Kelleher fight where an undefeated fighter got knocked out. He does not agree with Baeza being a -175 favorite and thinks the line should be closer.
Daniel Levi slightly leans with Matt Brown. He acknowledges that Miguel Baeza is super talented and could blow Brown out with a liver kick, but he thinks Brown will drag him into deep waters and drown him. He notes that Brown has historically been weak to the body but has been fighting with his hands down lately. He sees this as a good lesson for Baeza regardless.
The host picks Matt Brown, believing his veteran experience and pressure against the cage will overwhelm the undefeated Baeza. He thinks Baeza has not faced adversity and will struggle when things don't go his way. He predicts a TKO finish in the second or third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Baeza | 1 | 35 of 61 | 57% | 35 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Hector Aldana | 0 | 8 of 42 | 19% | 8 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Baeza | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 14 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Hector Aldana | 0 | 4 of 27 | 14% | 4 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Miguel Baeza | 1 | 21 of 33 | 63% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Hector Aldana | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Baeza | 35 of 61 | 57% | 16 of 38 | 3 of 7 | 16 of 16 | 29 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 |
| Hector Aldana | 8 of 42 | 19% | 2 of 30 | 0 of 4 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Baeza | 14 of 28 | 50% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Hector Aldana | 4 of 27 | 14% | 2 of 19 | 0 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Miguel Baeza | 21 of 33 | 63% | 14 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 |
| Hector Aldana | 4 of 15 | 26% | 0 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Punahele Soriano, citing Miguel Baeza's three-fight losing streak and two-year layoff, with his last two losses being knockouts. He notes that Soriano has power and wrestling, and while he has been losing, he has been active. He thinks Baeza's chin issues and ring rust are too much to overlook, and Soriano's power could be the difference.
Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza to win by second-round submission. He notes that Baeza is more well-rounded and skilled, but his chin is worrisome after knockout losses. He expects Baeza to survive the first round and then take over as Soriano gasses. He calls it a 'club and sub' finish.
Cody picks Baeza, noting that Soriano has poor cardio and takedown defense, and is moving down to welterweight after struggling at middleweight. Baeza is a BJJ black belt who has been focusing on grappling during his layoff. Cody believes if Baeza can survive the first round, he can take Soriano down and dominate. He expects Baeza to win by decision or submission.
Daniel leans Baeza as the better talent with a nasty jab and calf kicks, but questions his chin and confidence after recent knockout losses. He notes Soriano has power and could knock Baeza out if Baeza's defense is poor. He calls it a pass due to too many question marks.
Jacob picks Miguel Baeza, disagreeing with Angelo. He argues that even at 60-70% of his former self, Baeza has the tools to box up Soriano, who is coming down in weight. He notes that Baeza is fast and has good grappling, and Soriano lacks the speed to counter him. Jacob has placed a big bet on Baeza, believing he will style on Soriano.
Baeza is more complete with his calf kicking and striking, and Soriano's weight cut to welterweight may slow him down. Baeza should chip away and win a decision, but his durability and long layoff are concerns. Soriano has early KO power, so a hedge on Soriano by KO is possible. Leaning Baeza but likely passing.
Paul picks Soriano by knockout in round one, noting that Baeza has been knocked out before and Soriano has power. He acknowledges Soriano's cardio issues but thinks the move to welterweight could help. Paul bet Soriano by knockout at plus 300 and round one knockout at plus 675, expecting an early finish.
The Guru picks Baeza because he thinks Soriano is a middleweight moving down to welterweight, which won't work. He notes Baeza is a big welterweight with reach advantage and won't be bullied. He mentions Baeza took Colby Covington to the third round and didn't get smoked early, so Soriano's power shouldn't be a problem. He predicts a second or third-round finish for Baeza.
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