Career Averages - Raul Rosas Jr.
Career Averages - Ricky Turcios
Raul Rosas Jr. - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Font | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 29 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:13 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 47 of 75 | 16 of 18 | 88% | 0 | 1 | 10:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Font | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 8 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 5 of 22 | 22% | 12 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 | |
| 2 | Rob Font | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:13 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 17 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 4:07 | |
| 3 | Rob Font | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 18 of 23 | 8 of 9 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Font | 10 of 31 | 32% | 6 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 8 of 33 | 24% | 5 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Font | 7 of 20 | 35% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 5 of 22 | 22% | 2 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rob Font | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Rob Font | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo highlights that Rob Font is a technical striker with no takedown defense, while Raul Rosas is a relentless grappler with fantastic control. He expects Rosas to wrestle and get as many takedowns as he wants, as long as he doesn't try to box with Font. He calls it a Raul showcase.
Big Brady picks Raul Rosas Jr. over Rob Font. He highlights Font's poor takedown defense (43%) and tendency to be controlled on the ground, as seen in the Cory Sandhagen fight. Rosas Jr. has improved cardio and should be able to take Font down and hold him there. Brady expects a decision win for Rosas Jr., as Font has good defensive grappling but won't take risks to get up.
Cody leans toward Rosas Jr., citing Font's poor takedown defense and Rosas's youth and improvement. He notes Font's age and slowing down, and expects Rosas to rack up control time and win a decision. He mentions the Chiawei effect as a factor.
Connor picks Rosas, citing Font's poor takedown defense (43% career) and Rosas's relentless wrestling. He notes that Font got taken down seven times by John Matsumoto and still won, but Sandhagen's disciplined wrestling led to a loss. Connor believes Rosas's commitment to wrestling will be enough, despite Rosas's underdeveloped striking and youth. He acknowledges Font's toughness but sees a clear path for Rosas.
Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Raul Rosas Jr., citing Rob Font's poor takedown defense and getup game, especially as he fatigues. He believes Rosas has matured since his loss to Cristian Rodriguez and will submit Font. Vreeland acknowledges Font's experience but thinks Rosas's grappling will be the difference.
The host argues that Raul Rosas Jr. is a good bet despite being a favorite because of the extreme age gap (18 years younger), Font's poor takedown defense (42% takedown offense, gave up takedowns to Matsumoto, Figueiredo, Sandhagen), and Font's reliance on volume striking rather than power. He believes Rosas Jr. will stick to Font like glue, outgrapple him, and win two out of three rounds. He notes that Font's windows to strike will be slim due to constant takedown threats.
James picks Rob Font as an underdog, believing Font is the much better striker who will win the minutes on the feet. He acknowledges Rosas Jr.'s grappling threat but questions whether Rosas can hold Font down for extended periods, citing Font's ability to get back up in recent fights. James also notes that Rosas has never fought at this level and has been reversed in previous fights, making Font the value side. However, he admits Font's chin is a concern and that Rosas could hurt him.
Rosas Jr. is persistent with his grappling and will eventually take Font down and control him. Font has been susceptible to wrestlers. Rosas should win a decision, but the line is too high; only play if it drops to -150.
Paul picks Rosas Jr. but with hesitation, noting his takedown ability but concerns about gassing. He thinks Rosas will get early takedowns and control, but Font's get-up game is good. He suggests betting live after seeing if Font can get back up.
The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr., citing his relentless grappling and Font's struggles against grapplers (e.g., Sandhagen). He believes Rosas will take Font down and control him, winning by decision. He mentions the New England Cartel curse.
Zane picks Font, noting that Font has been taken down many times but still wins fights. He points out that Rosas's game is limited and that Font's experience and ability to do damage on the feet will be key. Zane acknowledges the risk from Rosas's speed and confidence, but believes Font's toughness and veteran savvy will carry him. He compares it to Font's win over Matsumoto.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 26 of 46 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 9:38 |
| Vince Morales | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 39 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 2:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 15 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
| Vince Morales | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 8 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 | |
| 2 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 6 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Vince Morales | 0 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 17 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Vince Morales | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 20 of 39 | 51% | 12 of 30 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Vince Morales | 17 of 31 | 54% | 15 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 11 of 18 | 61% | 6 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Vince Morales | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 5 of 14 | 35% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Vince Morales | 11 of 17 | 64% | 10 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vince Morales | 6 of 10 | 60% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosas Jr. (-375), Morales (+295)
Round 1
As he will likely encounter while literally growing up with the UFC, Rosas Jr. (10-1, 4-1 UFC) faces a foe tonight 14 years his senior. The promotion teed up Morales (16-9, 3-7 UFC), a fighter who has only won three times in 10 UFC appearances thus far, to serve as fodder for the youngster. The best-laid plans of mice and matchmakers often go awry, and there is no such thing as a “sure thing” in this chaotic sport of ours. The bantamweight come together under the watchful eye of referee Mike Beltran and do not touch gloves. Morales takes to the enter of the cage and paws out a jab, and he is met with a front kick to the body and a shin aimed at his chin. Rosas kicks his front leg a couple times, and he shoots for a takedown that Morales easily shucks out of the way. Rosas sprints forward to put two punches on “Vandetta,” and he chains a few more punches together before lifting Morales up in the air and slamming him down in the middle of the Octagon. Rosas lands in side control, not concerned about a feeble guillotine set up by Morales and suddenly searching for a submission. Morales reacts well enough to drag Rosas back to his guard for a second, and Rosas leaps over to the side again. Morales fights with his legs to stifle a mount attempt, and he wraps up Rosas neck with his arms and finds himself in Von Preux choke danger. Morales sees this setting up and releases his own grip to not fall in the trap. Rosas keeps moving, and he allows Morales to get to his knees so he can take the back. Rosas sneaks in a hook and pulls Morales to his side, with Morales intent on turning him about. Rosas forces Morales to turn, not getting his other hook in, and he keeps on the back while continuously threatening. Morales sits up and looks to twist again, and Rosas hooks one leg around him to keep maintaining his position. Morales breaks out of it and pursues a single, and Rosas keeps his body weight down and slams his fist on Morales’ ribs. Morales turns Rosas over and holds his shoulder down on Rosas’ neck, looking for open strikes until Rosas turns to his knees. Morales pursues a necktie submission, gripping it and leaning back to complete it, but time expires before he gets it.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Round 2
Morales comes out of his corner jabbing, and Rosas has his distance-keeping front kick outstretched. Rosas jabs him back, and he walks into a right hand and pays it no mind. Morales loops a right hand around the guard, and he is answered by a low kick. Rosas comes up short with a step-in knee and a punch, while Morales prods him with his jab. Rosas wraps his foot around the shin of his foe, and he gets his head snapped back with a fierce right hand. Rosas backs off, and Morales slings a head kick at him and starts to defend against a takedown he is knows is coming. Still, the youngster presses Morales from one side of the cage to the other, resting his weight on the veteran and looking for a body lock and a trip when the single or double does not materialize. A subsequent effort, a single-leg takedown, allows Rosas to take his man down. Rosas hunts for a back take, sliding a hook in from behind but the second is fought by Morales. Rosas re-settles himself to hang on from a shoulder, and the two keep scrambling until Rosas laces his legs around Morales’ left thigh. Morales rolls his eyes as he is getting controlled without being able to fight back, as Rosas follows his moves and threatens to loop his arm around the chin. Morales defends with two hands on one wrist, and he posts off to get to his feet all while Rosas is still imposing his weight on his back. Morales shimmies and shakes to wrench the youngster off of him, only to get dragged down and put on his back. Morales wags his finger at the conclusion of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Round 3
Morales is even more fired up to get to the last round, and he runs at the 20-year-old flailing his fists. Rosas keeps his back to the cage, strafing to the side and into a head kick. Rosas shoots, and Morales sets up a Peruvian necktie and tries to hit it. When that first one does not come together, Morales locks up an anaconda choke and transitions it to a brabo choke while on his back. Without any legs in play, hooked around Rosas’ back or otherwise presenting additional pressure, Rosas is able to stay composed and slowly work his way out of it. Rosas unleashes a powerful elbow when reclaiming top position, and Morales tries to roll out of the predicament and gives his back up. Rosas does not hang onto the back this time and instead lets Morales roll through. Morales hooks the leg to set up some leglock, and Rosas steps over it and puts Morales back on his side. When Morales gets up, Rosas bullies him right back to his seat. Morales is irritated that he cannot get Rosas off of him, and he stands up and uses the fence to his side to scrape Rosas off. Rosas shoots for a single, and Morales attempts a desperation necktie. Rosas turns through it, and Morales fastens a brabo choke again but does not have a lot of time left. Rosas signals a thumbs-up as the choke is pressed on his windpipe, and the match comes to an end.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Rosas)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Rosas)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Rosas)
The Official Result
Raul Rosas Jr. def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
James picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win but is hesitant due to the minus 400 price tag and elevation concerns. He notes Rosas has cardio issues that could be exacerbated at elevation, while Morales has good cardio and is tough to finish. James thinks Rosas will likely win via submission or decision but cannot recommend betting him at such short odds. He suggests that if Rosas doesn't finish early, he could fade in later rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 41 of 94 | 43% | 98 of 158 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 7:32 |
| Aoriqileng | 0 | 22 of 54 | 40% | 80 of 118 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 41 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:13 |
| Aoriqileng | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 18 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 17 of 49 | 34% | 17 of 49 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aoriqileng | 0 | 17 of 42 | 40% | 17 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 40 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:19 |
| Aoriqileng | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 45 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 41 of 94 | 43% | 21 of 59 | 7 of 20 | 13 of 15 | 27 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 24 |
| Aoriqileng | 22 of 54 | 40% | 12 of 43 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 11 of 22 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Aoriqileng | 4 of 10 | 40% | 1 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 17 of 49 | 34% | 9 of 35 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 17 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aoriqileng | 17 of 42 | 40% | 11 of 36 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 13 of 23 | 56% | 7 of 14 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 18 |
| Aoriqileng | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosas Jr. (-850), Aori (+575)
Round 1
It’s time for something new. It’s time for something different. Out of the UFC Apex, and not even posted up in its standard haunt of the T-Mobile Arena, instead the UFC is putting on a night of combat inside of the vaulted Sphere in Las Vegas. While some have seen snippets of previews, the occasional Twitter leak and some other sneak peeks, this will be fresh to fans and media alike. We don’t quite know what to expect, and that makes it exciting. This 10-fight showcase that celebrates Mexican fighters on Mexican Independence Day—along with a spangly-haired kid from Montana against a robot from Georgia, not to mention Saudi Arabia thrown in for good measure—and as a result, Mexican combatants will be the focus and betting favorites almost every step of the way. The matchup of the evening will also serve as the one with the widest betting lines, as grappling wunderkind Rosas Jr. (9-1, 3-1 UFC) comes in with odds in his favor around -1000 against well-traveled China export Aori (25-11, 1 NC; 3-3, 1 NC UFC). Although referee Chris Tognoni signed up to officiate this event like any other, even he is surprised at the spectacle unfolding around them. The bantamweights touch gloves, and it’s time for something new. Rosas lashes out first with a low kick, and he is warned for outstretched fingers. He switches stances and kick Aori two more times on the lead leg. Rosas goes to the body with a kick, and chants for “chiwiwis” rain down in support of Rosas. Aori springs into action with a lunging combination, and the Mexican youngster bats them out of the way and circles off. Rosas whiffs on a pair of looping shots, and he gets caught with a right hand and just misses on the counter. Rosas attacks the front leg a few more times, and when he stands still, Aori potshots him with a solid right hand. Rosas jumps back and forth between stances, and he is once more warned for his fingers pointing out. Rosas charges in from a distance to go after a takedown, and after they bounce off the wall, he succeeds in dragging the Chinese competitor down. Rosas opens up with several loud body shots while Aori looks for sweeps and butterfly hooks, but he elects instead to pass to half guard. Rosas climbs over to side control, and he moves to mount in a hurry. Aori times the guard pass to buck and sit up, but this only allows Rosas to circle around him and take his back. Aori is warned for pulling his toes in the cage as additional chants for “chiwiwis” loudly call for Rosas. Rosas grips a brief face crank, but he bails on it when the grip is not tight. As Aori turns to his side, Rosas punches him in the side of the head a few times. With seconds to spare, Rosas slides over to the mount position to rain down elbows, and the horn sounds.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Round 2
The bantamweights touch ‘em up to get going, and Rosas opens up with a kick or two before Aori surges at him with punches outstretched. Aori reaches his foe with a right hand amidst an exchange, and he hops away when Aori jumps at him with a knee. Rosas paws with a few more low kicks, and one slides up and bumps into the cup apparently. Aori waves it off, and he winds up with a massive right hand that brushes past the hair of the youngster. Rosas shoots for a takedown, and Aori tosses it aside. Aori jabs his way in but misses on the overhand right, and he stops another takedown effort coming his way. Rosas peppers the lead leg with kicks, keeping to the outer edge to not allow Aori to reach him with anything of significance. When Aori does connect, Rosas fires back angrily. The warning comes for Rosas again for pointing his fingers out, and Aori loads up on an overhand right to smash the kid in the chops. Aori chambers and fires another big overhand right, and Rosas wears it well and keeps moving and switching stances. Aori goes for a right hand to the body, and he tries for two more wide hooks. Rosas walks towards him and wants to brawl, and Aori happily obliges him. Aori tags him during an exchange, and he fights off a takedown up close. Aori stalks after the younger fighter and flicks out a jab or two, and he goes to the body with a right hand. Aori parries a kick and gives a loud one back to the body, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Round 3
The fighters come together to hug it out before the last round commences, with Rosas showing a little trickle of blood on his lip. When they disengage, Aori is quick to pick up where he left off, walking the 19-year-old down and kicking him in the ribs. To fire up Rosas, the crowd chants “chiwiwis” again, and this results in him charging in for a tackling takedown that puts Aori to his seat. Aori wall-walks, and Rosas quickly mat returns him with a body lock, landing in side control. Aori scrambles, and in the process, he gives up his back when turning to his knees. Rosas reaches way back to slam down knees to the shoulder, landing several until Aori sells out by somersaulting. This forces “Mongolian Murderer” to his back once more, with Rosas comfortably on top of him in the guard. Rosas stays busy on top with ground-and-pound, more of the frustrating variety than with anything individually damaging. Tognoni asks for more activity from on top, and Rosas sits up to fling one right hand down. It’s “chiwiwis” again for the audience, but Rosas does not take any additional chances or let anything special fly. At 19 years of age, the young Rosas has not let the surroundings or his hype get the better of him, as he smothers the power puncher and keeps him flat on his back. Rosas drops down an elbow and a left hand, and Aori responds with an elbow from his back. As seconds tick off the clock, both fighters swing at one another, and the less-than-thrilling match comes to an end. Barring something unusual, Mexico is on the board, and the audience may hope that things spice up a bit.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosas (29-28 Rosas)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rosas (30-27 Rosas)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosas (29-28 Rosas)
The Official Result
Raul Rosas Jr. def. Qileng Aori via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Raul Rosas Jr. but with caution. He notes Rosas is young (19), a relentless grappler with 12 takedowns in 5 fights, but his striking is still raw and he can be reckless. Angelo points out that Rosas lost the first round in his last fight and gassed out badly two fights ago against CR Rod. He warns against overexposure on the -700 line, suggesting Rosas could still make mistakes. The pick is Rosas, but Angelo advises betting conservatively.
Big Brady sees this as a clear mismatch, with Raul Rosas Jr. being a massive favorite. He notes Aoriqileng's poor takedown defense and history of submissions, predicting Rosas will get a takedown and finish quickly. He expects a first-round submission win.
Daniel picks Raul Rosas Jr., noting his size, grappling, and relentless pressure. He expects Rosas to take down Qileng and submit him, possibly in the second round. He mentions Qileng's counter right hand but believes Rosas' grappling will be too much.
The transcript does not discuss this fight.
Rosas Jr. is a phenom who will get the fight to the ground as he always does. Aoriqileng has shown decent grappling defense but will struggle with Rosas Jr.'s aggression. Expects Rosas Jr. to get him out in the first round, likely by submission.
The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win by submission in the first or second round. He notes that Aoriqileng has lost to fighters he wouldn't describe as extremely talented, and that Rosas Jr. is a rising prospect with good grappling and pace. He trusts Rosas Jr. to get the grappling going early and secure a submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 25 of 34 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 1 | 1 | 5:49 |
| Ricky Turcios | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 64 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 21 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 3:40 |
| Ricky Turcios | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 50 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 2 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 4 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Ricky Turcios | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ricky Turcios | 7 of 15 | 46% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ricky Turcios | 5 of 11 | 45% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ricky Turcios | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Raul Rosas Jr., noting his relentless wrestling and takedowns. He acknowledges that Ricky Turcios has a wild style and good scrambles, but his takedown defense is poor. He thinks Rosas will get takedowns early and often, and while Turcios might survive, Rosas should win a decision or get a submission. He is confident in Rosas.
Big Brady picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win by decision. He notes that the fight is now in Louisville instead of Mexico City, removing elevation concerns. He highlights Turcios's zero takedown defense, having been taken down 13 times in his last two fights. He expects Rosas to chain wrestle and win a dominant decision, possibly dropping the third round if he slows down.
Cody picks Rosas Jr. based on the stylistic matchup, noting Turcios' poor takedown defense and Rosas' strength and wrestling. He acknowledges Rosas' cardio issues but believes Turcios is not durable enough to survive the early rounds. Cody also likes that the fight was postponed, giving Rosas more time to prepare and make weight. He expects Rosas to get takedowns and potentially submit Turcios.
Daniel leans towards Rosas due to his physicality and early dominance, but acknowledges Turcios' experience and the possibility of Rosas gassing late. He notes Rosas' style requires high energy, similar to Aljamain Sterling, and that Turcios could take over if he makes Rosas work. He picks Rosas but wouldn't be surprised by a late fade.
Jacob picks Raul Rosas Jr., calling it a simple matchup: a relentless wrestler against a guy who can't defend takedowns. He notes that Turcios has empty pressure and isn't dangerous. He thinks Rosas will get takedowns and control the fight, and even if he gasses, he can still win. He is confident Rosas gets it done easily.
Rosas Jr. is a young grappler with strong scrambling and control, while Turcios is unorthodox and hard to submit. The fight will likely be a grappling-heavy scramble, with Rosas Jr. getting more control time and winning a decision. However, Turcios' experience and weird style make it tough to trust Rosas at -220. Over 2.5 rounds is a better play.
Paul picks Rosas Jr., noting that Turcios is a terrible stylistic matchup for Rosas due to his poor takedown defense and lack of finishing ability. He believes Rosas will take him down early and often, and while Rosas has cardio issues, Turcios is not good enough to capitalize. Paul expects Rosas to win by submission or decision.
The Guru picks Rosas Jr. because Turcios has looked embarrassing in recent fights, especially against Kevin Natividad and Aiemann Zahabi, where he didn't want to engage. He says Rosas will put him away just by wanting to win. He notes Turcios has good takedown defense but Rosas is relentless and will find a way to jump to the back. He predicts a first-round rear-naked choke.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 18 of 30 | 60% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 17 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 18 of 30 | 60% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 17 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 6 of 19 | 31% | 5 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Raul Rosas Jr., expecting him to be more composed after his first loss. He believes Rosas's relentless grappling will overwhelm Terrence Mitchell, who can be taken down and controlled. He considers Rosas safe for parlays, possibly with Roman Kopylov.
Big Brady is very confident in Rosas, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Mitchell's low level of competition and that he gets finished early by anyone relevant. He expects Rosas to take Mitchell down quickly and submit him, predicting a second-round submission.
Cody is very confident in Rosas Jr., calling him 'top ticket material'. He details Mitchell's poor resume, including a 30-second KO loss to Kai Kara-France on TUF. Cody believes Rosas will get takedowns easily and finish, likely by submission. He recommends betting Rosas inside the distance and notes the round 1 prop at minus 155 is a good price.
Daniel Levi picks Raul Rosas Jr. confidently, noting that Rosas learned a valuable lesson in his loss to Christian Rodriguez. He believes Rosas's grappling will be decisive, as once he takes Mitchell's back, the fight will end quickly. Levi points out that Mitchell is ranked 183rd in the world and that Rosas is being developed properly with a soft matchup. He expects Rosas to get back on track with a dominant performance.
Rosas Jr. is a smothering grappler with nasty chokes and great ground control. Mitchell is an Alaska regional fighter who was finished quickly by Cameron Simon and Kai Kara-France. Rosas should have no problem taking Mitchell down and finishing him in the first round. This is a perfect matchup for Rosas to get back on track after his loss to Christian Rodriguez.
Paul picks Rosas Jr. but notes the minus 800 line offers no value. He expects Rosas to get takedowns and finish early, possibly by submission. He mentions Mitchell's lack of success at higher levels and that he is being brought in as a rebound opponent. Paul suggests betting Rosas inside the distance or under 1.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr. over Terrence Mitchell, predicting a first-round rear-naked choke. He notes Mitchell's lack of strength and that Rosas's strength-based grappling will be effective. He mentions Rosas's training with Sarah Longo and believes the humbling loss to Christian Rodriguez will help him. He sees Mitchell as weak and easily manipulated on the ground.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 2 of 19 | 10% | 2 of 19 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 1 | 0 | 4:50 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 29 of 52 | 55% | 83 of 115 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 7:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 1 | 0 | 4:02 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 2 | Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:37 | |
| 3 | Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 2 of 15 | 13% | 2 of 15 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 23 of 40 | 57% | 50 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Rodriguez | 2 of 19 | 10% | 2 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 29 of 52 | 55% | 26 of 47 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 18 | 4 of 7 | 21 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Rodriguez | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Christian Rodriguez | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Christian Rodriguez | 2 of 15 | 13% | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 23 of 40 | 57% | 23 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 25 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosas (-225), Rodriguez (+190)
Round 1
Of the 26 competitors on the lineup, just one missed weight: Rodriguez (8-1, 1-1 UFC), who clocked in a pound heavy for his bantamweight meeting with surging youngster Rosas (7-0, 1-0 UFC). Rosas will be looking for his second UFC win before his 19th birthday, while the relatively elderly Rodriguez at 25 is also hunting for win no. 2 in the promotion. Grappling should be on display for this catchweight affair, one that will be joined in the cage by referee Keith Peterson. Nonsense has left the building, while former President Donald Trump is sitting next to Dana White. The fighters have no interest in touching gloves, and instead want to get right down to business. Rosas sprints at his opponent for a takedown, and Rodriguez easily stops it and gets pushed to the wall. A second try from Rosas trips Rodriguez to the floor for a moment, and he even lifts Rodriguez up in the air, but “CeeRod” keeps himself upright and knees the body. Rosas drops down for a single, and Rodriguez defends it by punching and elbowing Rosas in the face. “El Nino Problema” whips Rodriguez down to the mat, and he moves straight into half guard and shifts to side control. Rosas snatches up a guillotine choke, and Rodriguez times this perfectly to flip over him and gain dominant position. Rosas explodes back to his feet before falling victim to a potential submission, and he pushes Rodriguez up to the wire. Rosas clasps his hands around the waist, and Rodriguez remains upright and has his mouthpiece knocked out by a jump knee from his opponent. Rosas yanks Rodriguez down to the floor, and Rodriguez stands up. Rosas jumps on his back and hooks his legs around the waist for a body triangle, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke. The forearm is not under the neck and is more of a face crank, but Rodriguez grits it out and fights the hands to stop the choke from succeeding. Rosas resets it and secures the arm on the jaw, and he squeezes with all his might. Rodriguez lowers himself to the floor, and he protects himself by hand-fighting again. Rosas secures the body triangle again, crushing down below the ribs, and Rodriguez attempts to turn over. Rosas looks to switch for an armbar setup, but he bails on it to hang on until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosas
Round 2
The two fighters meet in the middle, and Rosas instantly starts the round by shooting for a single. Rodriguez bowls him over and pushes the youngster to the mat. Briefly taking side control, Rodriguez cannot keep him down and stands up. He greets Rosas with a knee and an elbow, and Rosas holds on and drops down for a failed single. Rodriguez pushes him off and steps back from a spinning back kick, and he attacks another takedown and manages to take Rodriguez’ back standing. The 18-year-old, who appears to be fading slightly, pulls Rodriguez down to the floor momentarily. Rodriguez climbs back up with the wall behind him, and he looks to grab Rosas’ leg from behind his own. Rosas falls to his back, and he throws his legs up for a potential inverted triangle setup. Rodriguez shrugs it off and moves to north-south position, and he shifts over to half guard and drops down an elbow. Rosas rolls and scrambles wildly, but Rodriguez follows him every step of the way and winds up in side control, elbowing the body. Rosas attempts to push off the wall with his feet, and he rolls to his knees and gives up his back. Rodriguez bullies Rosas down to the floor, and he locks up the body triangle and gains possession of the back. Rosas turns over, and Rodriguez slugs him in the side of the head a few times while maintaining the body lock. Rodriguez sets up a rear-naked choke, and he softens “El Nino Problema” up with his right hand. Rodriguez maintains his leg grip tight as a drum, and he rides out the round on the back.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
The final round kicks off, and this time, Rosas does not frantically shoot for takedown. Rodriguez catches him with a right hand, and he times a leaping Rosas with another overhand right. The punches of Rodriguez slightly dislodge the youngster’s mouthpiece, and he bears down on him and slugs him a few more times. Rosas charges for a takedown, and he releases the grip when it fails. Rodriguez stops it and stands up, and he meanders towards his opponent and staves off another entry. Rosas leaps forward with a left hand, and Rodriguez whiffs on a counter. The 18-year-old ends up giving up his back when shooting in for a takedown, and Rodriguez pummels him until throwing Rosas down to the ground and claiming the mount position. The calm Rodriguez flattens his prey out briefly, and he pounds on him with unblocked punches. Rodriguez postures up and slowly, methodically beats on Rosas, who latches onto his left arm with all his might. Rodriguez elbows behind the ear, and he wraps up the body lock and takes the back. Rodriguez plants his elbow on Rosas’ dome, and he considers a choke but elects to keep punching Rosas. Rodriguez threatens with rear-naked choke setups from both arms, and he looks to shift over to mount but instead fastens his grip for a face crank. Rosas twists and turns, but Rodriguez is wise to every move and smacks him around. With 20 seconds to spare, Rodriguez releases his leg grip and stands back up. Rodriguez eats a left hand and nails Rosas with a few left hands of his own. The fight comes to a close, and the undefeated record of the 18-year-old is about to go up in smoke.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Rodriguez (29-27 Rodriguez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Rodriguez (29-27 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)
The Official Result
Christian Rodriguez def. Raul Rosas Jr. via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is confident in Raul Rosas Jr., noting that Christian Rodriguez has been taken down 10 times in the UFC, and Raul is a relentless grappler who doesn't let people up. He thinks it's that simple: Raul will take him down and control him. He has a moneyline bet at -185 and expects the line to move further in Raul's favor.
Big Brady picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win by first-round submission, impressed by his grappling and maturity. He notes that Rodriguez has been taken down by previous opponents and that Rosas has elite BJJ. He warns about Rodriguez's guillotine but believes Rosas will be wise to it. He predicts an early finish.
Cody picks Rosas, arguing that despite his age, he is rapidly improving and his wrestling should be effective against Rodriguez, who has poor takedown defense. Cody notes that Rodriguez is still developing himself and the gap between an 18-year-old and a 25-year-old isn't huge. He believes Rosas' physical maturity and grappling will carry him, and that the price is fair. He acknowledges Rosas may eventually be humbled but not here.
Connor picks Rosas because Rodriguez takes himself out of position and fights into the clinch, where Rosas excels. Rosas is a great back-taker and crushing positional grappler. Rodriguez showed vulnerability to takedowns against Joshua Weems, and Rosas is a much better grappler. Connor doesn't see anything in Rodriguez's game that suggests he can stay off the ground or win if taken down.
Jacob is also confident in Raul, sharing a story about how Raul started grappling after being out-grappled once, showing his natural talent. He notes that Christian Rodriguez likes to scramble, which will lead to Raul taking his back. He predicts a finish after the first takedown.
Rodriguez is a well-rounded prospect with pinpoint striking and good scrambles. Rosas is a young grappling phenom but his striking is raw and he makes positional mistakes. Rodriguez has the composure to reverse positions and keep the fight standing, where he has a clear advantage. I think Rosas's overzealous grappling will be exploited, and Rodriguez wins by knockout or decision.
Paul picks Rodriguez as a dog but is hesitant. He questions Rosas' striking and notes that if Rodriguez can survive the early rounds and get back to his feet, he has a striking advantage. Paul points out Rodriguez's good scrambling and ability to land shots. He also mentions the Florida crowd might favor exciting striking over grinding wrestling. However, he acknowledges Rosas' wrestling is a threat and that Rodriguez has poor takedown defense.
The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win by second-round submission via face crank. He initially thought decision but changed due to Rodriguez's bad weight cut. He expects Rodriguez to do well early but fade, with Rosas taking over in scrambles and eventually sinking in a choke over the jaw. He describes a detailed grappling sequence leading to the tap.
Zane picks Rosas because Rodriguez's takedown defense is poor, as seen against Weems. Rosas is an aggressive grappler with excellent back-taking and ground control. Zane notes that Rodriguez's record shows submissions, but he doesn't see anything that suggests he can avoid being taken down and controlled by Rosas.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 9 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Jay Perrin | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 9 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Jay Perrin | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jay Perrin | 4 of 8 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jay Perrin | 4 of 8 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident Rosas will dominate via wrestling and control, predicting a wet blanket decision. He has a 2-unit moneyline bet on Rosas at -255. However, he expresses concern that Rosas is too young (18) for the UFC, comparing him to Aaron Pico who was pushed too fast. He believes Rosas will outpace Perrin and wrestle him relentlessly.
Big Brady picks the underdog Jay Perrin, citing Perrin's excellent takedown defense, cardio, and toughness. He notes Rosas Jr. has faced no adversity and has poor striking, while Perrin trains with Merab Dvalishvili and has good grappling. He expects Perrin to survive early takedowns and take over in later rounds, winning by decision or late finish.
Cody picks Rosas Jr., citing his submission grappling and cardio. He thinks the UFC is building him up and that Perrin is a favorable matchup. He notes Rosas' relentless pressure and chain wrestling. He expects a submission or inside the distance win, and suggests taking Rosas inside the distance at plus 140.
Daniel Levi picks Raul Rosas Jr., believing the UFC matched him against a weak opponent in Jay Perrin. He describes Perrin as average everywhere with a poor attitude, and notes that the UFC offered the fight to other fighters first. Levi likes Rosas's length, awkwardness, grappling ability (back takes, scrambles), and confidence. He expects Rosas to win, possibly by submission, but is not crazy about the -240 price. He suggests waiting for a better line around -200.
Lock is confident in Rosas Jr. from a PredictionStrike perspective, noting that if he fulfills his potential, the current price of $1.26 will look like a steal. He acknowledges the possibility of struggles like other young fighters, but believes Rosas has the best base for MMA with his grappling and jiu-jitsu, and a safe style that minimizes damage. He thinks this is likely the best price you'll ever get on him, and recommends buying in for the long term.
Paul does not make a clear pick, noting Rosas is very young (17) and that Perrin has wrestling credentials. He thinks Perrin could give Rosas trouble and that the fight is not a high priority for betting. He acknowledges Rosas' potential but is not confident either way.
The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr. over Jay Perrin by close decision. He acknowledges Perrin is a formidable fighter who gave tough fights to Aoriqileng and Mario Bautista, but believes Rosas Jr.'s willingness to grapple will be the difference. He expects Rosas Jr. to secure takedowns and control positions, possibly losing a round but winning 29-28.
Ricky Turcios - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Turcios | 0 | 22 of 60 | 36% | 36 of 74 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Alberto Montes | 0 | 32 of 58 | 55% | 39 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Turcios | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 33 of 67 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Alberto Montes | 0 | 26 of 47 | 55% | 33 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Ricky Turcios | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alberto Montes | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Turcios | 22 of 60 | 36% | 14 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 58 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alberto Montes | 32 of 58 | 55% | 19 of 42 | 10 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 52 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Turcios | 19 of 53 | 35% | 13 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 51 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alberto Montes | 26 of 47 | 55% | 16 of 35 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 41 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ricky Turcios | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alberto Montes | 6 of 11 | 54% | 3 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Alberto Montes over Ricky Turcios. He finds Turcios frustrating to pick, noting his low output and poor striking accuracy. Montes is a front choke specialist with power and submission threats. Brady sees Montes winning by decision or potentially hurting Turcios, who has been getting hurt more often. He trusts Montes to be more active and land bigger shots.
Cody picks Turcios, citing his better wrestling, striking, and experience. He notes Montes is a one-trick pony with the darce choke, and Turcios is hard to submit. He expects Turcios to win a decision, possibly a split.
Connor picks Turcios hesitantly, reasoning that Montes' game is dysfunctional enough that Turcios' chaotic style can compete. He notes that Turcios is tireless and has only been submitted once, while Montes has poor striking defense and may gas out under pressure. However, he acknowledges that Turcios is the smaller, weaker man moving up in weight.
Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Alberto Montes in his UFC debut, praising his disciplined striking and submission ability. He criticizes Ricky Turcios for not evolving and being figured out, and believes Montes will outpoint him without being affected by Turcios's antics.
The host is interested in Turcios as an underdog (+158) but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Montes is more technical everywhere but has little experience and many quick finishes. Turcios is tough, high-paced, and can drag opponents into wars, which could trouble a debutant. However, the host caps Turcios at around 50% and wants a bigger margin; the current odds imply 39%, which is not enough for him. He will wait for weigh-ins.
James picks Alberto Montes, noting that Ricky Turcios lacks power, submission threat, and volume, making it hard for him to win UFC fights. He believes Montes is a better striker with more power and has a dangerous anaconda choke that could submit Turcios. James is not confident but sees Montes as the side with more paths to victory.
Turcios is awkward and scrambly, making it hard for Montes to secure his front choke. Turcios has better striking output and accuracy against a less confident striker. He should survive grappling exchanges and win a decision as an underdog.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Turcios. He notes Montes' limited offense and Turcios' scrambling ability. He expects Turcios to outwork Montes and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Alberto Montes, but hesitantly. He thinks Montes can secure a submission (Anaconda choke) when Turcios shoots for takedowns. He notes Turcios has been skittish since TUF and that Montes, though sloppy, should win.
Zane does not make a clear pick. He acknowledges that Turcios could stumble into a win but does not commit to either fighter. He notes that Montes has a slick submission game but may get tired, while Turcios is a scrappy mess.
Angelo picks Cameron Smotherman, calling him the far better striker who will control the fight on the feet. He criticizes Ricky Turcios for getting worse in each fight, describing his style as running forward with windmill punches. He notes Smotherman's unreliability but believes he is more than a 2-to-1 favorite.
Big Brady is not a fan of either fighter, but leans Smotherman due to his slick striking and hands. He criticizes Turcios for a poor performance against Aiemann Zahabi and his taunting. However, he notes Smotherman is chinny and has been knocked out before, so he's not confident. He predicts Smotherman by decision.
Cody leans toward Ricky Turcios as an underdog, citing his durability and cardio. He notes Turcios's wrestling and volume could overwhelm Smotherman, who has poor takedown defense. Cody believes Turcios can win a decision or even a submission, and likes the plus money value.
Connor picks Smotherman because he is at least fast and powerful, while Turcios is a mess with low athleticism. He notes that Smotherman has technical skills but freezes up, while Turcios is a cyclone of activity without direction. Connor believes Smotherman has more potential to do damage if he chooses to.
Daniel Vreeland picks Cameron Smotherman simply because he dislikes Ricky Turcios as a fighter. He notes that neither fighter belongs in the UFC, but he refuses to pick Turcios. Vreeland acknowledges that Smotherman has decent hands but a suspect chin and poor ground game, making this a low-confidence pick.
James picks Smotherman, calling him the much better boxer and noting Turcios's lack of activity and focus on side ventures. He expects Smotherman to outbox Turcios and possibly hurt him.
The host picks Smotherman by decision, citing his slick striking and footwork. He believes Smotherman can counter Turcios's pressure and avoid grappling, as Turcios is not as strong a wrestler as Ricky Simone. He notes Smotherman's takedown defense has improved and expects him to win on the scorecards.
Paul picks Cameron Smotherman but is hesitant due to his takedown defense issues. He notes Smotherman's superior boxing and volume, but worries about Turcios's wrestling and durability. Paul prefers the over 2.5 rounds prop and believes Smotherman can win a decision if he stuffs takedowns.
The MMA Guru picks Cameron Smotherman, noting that Ricky Turcios has looked scared to fight and has not won recently. He likes Smotherman's body work and ability to snowball into fights, while Turcios lacks early aggression. He predicts a decision win.
Zane agrees with Connor, using the same logic: Smotherman is a solid athlete while Turcios has very little natural athleticism. He notes that Turcios has stamina and toughness but is a mess technically. Zane thinks Smotherman could do damage if he chooses to, but the fight is low level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benardo Sopaj | 0 | 78 of 144 | 54% | 113 of 187 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Ricky Turcios | 1 | 81 of 139 | 58% | 97 of 155 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benardo Sopaj | 0 | 25 of 44 | 56% | 45 of 64 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Ricky Turcios | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 20 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 | |
| 2 | Benardo Sopaj | 0 | 30 of 52 | 57% | 42 of 68 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Ricky Turcios | 0 | 25 of 48 | 52% | 29 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 3 | Benardo Sopaj | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 26 of 55 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Ricky Turcios | 1 | 38 of 56 | 67% | 48 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benardo Sopaj | 78 of 144 | 54% | 30 of 86 | 24 of 32 | 24 of 26 | 60 of 120 | 18 of 22 | 0 of 2 |
| Ricky Turcios | 81 of 139 | 58% | 64 of 117 | 8 of 11 | 9 of 11 | 48 of 99 | 16 of 20 | 17 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benardo Sopaj | 25 of 44 | 56% | 6 of 23 | 8 of 10 | 11 of 11 | 23 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ricky Turcios | 18 of 35 | 51% | 13 of 28 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Benardo Sopaj | 30 of 52 | 57% | 13 of 29 | 11 of 15 | 6 of 8 | 18 of 37 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Ricky Turcios | 25 of 48 | 52% | 19 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 37 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Benardo Sopaj | 23 of 48 | 47% | 11 of 34 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 19 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 2 |
| Ricky Turcios | 38 of 56 | 67% | 32 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 18 of 32 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 19 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sopai (-355), Turcios (+280)
Round 1
The day before UFC Fight Night 247, also known as Magny vs. Prates, went down last November, Turcios (12-4, 2-2 UFC) fell ill during his weight cut and was forced out of his match with Sopai (11-3, 0-1 UFC). It took over two months to get the bantamweight pairing on the books again, but both fighters appear healthy and good to go this time around. They settle their business under the watchful eye of referee Frank Trigg, choosing to touch gloves before getting after it. Sopai pushes the pace immediately, allowing kicks from “Pretty Ricky” to fly past him so he can smack the Texan in the face with the instep of his foot. As Sopai keeps kicking, Turcios strafes left and right to set something up on his end. This results in a lot of chasing from the Albanian, who times a solid head kick to bean Turcios in the forehead. Turcios shakes it off and kicks the lead leg of his opponent two times in a row. Turcios chains a low kick into a spinning back kick to the midsection, and he keeps his gloves up to defend the head kick that aims at his dome. The two fire off low kicks, and one slides up the lead leg and bumps into Sopai’s cup. Trigg tells them to keep it clean and they fight on, with chants of “Let’s go, Ricky” as the Texan finds some success. Turcios steps on the gas and stalks down “The Lion King,” connecting with front kicks and pushing forward so he can grapple his opponent. As they clinch up against the fence, Turcios clings on tight while firing off several knees up the middle, and he keeps in close even as Sopai tries to escape. Sopai manages to get away, but Turcios races after him and tackles him down to his knees. Sopai defends it and stands up, but the second attempt from Turcios drags him down. Sopai scrambles to stand up, and Turcios leaps on his back to threaten with something. Sopai twists to put Turcios on his back, and he lines up some ground-and-pound. The strikes open up a cut on the corner of the face of “Pretty Ricky,” who explodes back to his feet and starts brawling it out with his foe. Sopai welcomes the slugfest, and he eats a hefty low kick, a right hand and some knees with shoved against the wall. The horn sounds to end the close round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sopai
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Sopai
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sopai
Round 2
The fighters touch ‘em up to get started in the second round, and Sopai quickly backs Turcios to the wall and boots him upside the head. Sopai jabs his way in, and he slips back to avoid a low kick but is not able to get out of the way as Turcios is on him. “Pretty Ricky” lets fly two body kicks and tries to wrench Sopai to the floor, and they land in 50/50 position before pushing off to return to striking range. Turcios chips at the front leg a few times, getting away with naked kicks without reprisal. Sopai bears down on him and slugs him in the chops with a fierce right hand, forcing Turcios to turn tail and sprint away to reset. Sopai chases after him swinging hard, and Turcios gathers his thoughts and wings his own punches back when sitting down on them. Turcios leaps after a takedown, and Sopai turns him about and down to the ground. A furious scramble from Turcios leads to both men getting back upright, and he walks through an uppercut so he can get in close. Sopai connects with a knee that shakes Turcios up, and he pushes Turcios down to his hands to further slow him. Turcios twist and stands up, working the sides with punches only to get met with two crisp knees from the Albanian. Turcios consistently presses forward, backing Sopai off and making him work, and this appears to be bearing fruit as Sopai starts taking deep breaths with 90 seconds left in the round. Turcios, meanwhile, is fresh as a daisy and hurls big punches with bad intentions behind them. A pair of them clip Sopai, who ties his foe up and connects with a few knees to keep Turcios honest. Sopai pushes away a takedown shot to blast the Texan in the face with ferocious punches, and he trips Turcios up but elects not to follow him down so he can keep hitting him. Turcios drops down for a potential takedown, shakes it off and tries to keep swinging until the bell separates them.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sopai
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Sopai
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sopai
Round 3
There is a glove touch to start the final round, and Sopai further reintroduces himself with a low kick and a body kick. The latter appears to take the wind out of the Texan’s sails, who drops to his knees and is in a bad way. Sopai tries to pound him out, ultimately settling to push Turcios all the way to his back so he can start bludgeoning him with elbows. Turcios’ nose busts open as blood sprays out of it, down his chest and all over the mat. Turcios practically laughs, somehow willing himself back to his feet so he can put hands on the man that hurt him. Sopai backs off, and Turcios races after him to clinch fight him. Turcios walks through punches to land some of his own, and Sopai eats them, shakes his head and knees “Pretty Ricky” in his not-so-pretty face. Swelling, a crunched nose and blood have transformed Turcios’ visage to something out of a European fairy tale, but Turcios has no concern for his outer appearance and just wants to bleed and fight. Turcios runs towards Sopai, throwing everything he has at his tiring opponent, and he hops on Sopai’s back only to slide off thanks to the sweat and blood. Sopai climbs into his guard, and he fights off a triangle choke setup to shift to the side. Turcios turns over to his knees and stands up, and they fire off jabs at one another with about 90 seconds on the clock. Turcios checks a kick and charges into the fray, absorbing plenty of strikes so he can hope to catch Sopai with something. Sopai pushes him away with front kicks, and he leaps in the air with a knee that glances off the target. Turcios walks directly into a knee, and an uppercut puts him down on his face for a moment. Turcios bounces off the mat, head-first, and does not just pop up but is appears totally fine and ready to keep banging. With “Fight of the Night” already having a frontrunner, the two add to it by going for broke with seconds to spare. Sopai flips at his opponent with a somersault kick, and Turcios takes it flush and chucks his opponent to the floor like a 135-pound side of beef. As Turcios tries to beat down his foe, Sopai throws his legs up to hang tight on a triangle choke until the bloody battle comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sopai (30-27 Sopai)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Sopai (30-27 Sopai)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sopai (30-27 Sopai)
The Official Result
Bernardo Sopai def. Ricky Turcios via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Benardo Sopaj, citing his speed, power, takedown defense, and overall skill advantage over Ricky Turcios. He acknowledges Turcios' high pace and pressure but believes Sopaj can slow it down and take advantage of the skill gap. However, he warns against betting Sopaj at -400 due to the risk from his recent knockout loss.
Cody picks Benardo Sopaj, noting that the line is 100 points better than when the fight was first booked. He believes Sopaj is a legitimate prospect with strong wrestling and improving striking. Turcios has poor takedown defense, as seen against Kevin Natividad and Brady Hiestand, and his wins are split decisions. Sopaj is younger and more dynamic. Cody expects Sopaj to take Turcios down and secure rounds, possibly earning a finish. Sopaj is part of the Saftic Super Boost.
Daniel picks Sopaj, noting that he has never been a fan of Turcios' style. He believes Sopaj is a real prospect with impressive knockouts on the regional scene. Daniel thinks Sopaj's physical attributes and raw skill will overcome Turcios' experience. He mentions that Sopaj's only loss was to a dangerous fighter (Lock Dog) and that Turcios is not a threat.
The host believes Sopaj won fans with a close fight against Vinicius Oliveira and can put on a high-paced fight, landing more damage and outworking Turcios on route to a decision victory.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Sopaj. He notes that Turcios has been taken down multiple times by opponents who committed to wrestling, and Sopaj has the wrestling to do the same. Paul believes Sopaj's power and takedowns will be decisive. He is comfortable adding Sopaj to tickets despite the chalk.
The MMA Guru picks Benardo Sopaj over Ricky Turcios. He heavily criticizes Turcios' mentality and performance, citing low strike accuracy and lack of will to win. He praises Sopaj's short-notice debut against Vinicius Oliveira, where Sopaj won the first round and was winning the second before getting reversed. He believes Sopaj is a good fighter and will get the job done.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 25 of 34 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 1 | 1 | 5:49 |
| Ricky Turcios | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 64 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 21 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 3:40 |
| Ricky Turcios | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 50 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 2 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 4 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Ricky Turcios | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ricky Turcios | 7 of 15 | 46% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ricky Turcios | 5 of 11 | 45% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ricky Turcios | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Raul Rosas Jr., noting his relentless wrestling and takedowns. He acknowledges that Ricky Turcios has a wild style and good scrambles, but his takedown defense is poor. He thinks Rosas will get takedowns early and often, and while Turcios might survive, Rosas should win a decision or get a submission. He is confident in Rosas.
Big Brady picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win by decision. He notes that the fight is now in Louisville instead of Mexico City, removing elevation concerns. He highlights Turcios's zero takedown defense, having been taken down 13 times in his last two fights. He expects Rosas to chain wrestle and win a dominant decision, possibly dropping the third round if he slows down.
Cody picks Rosas Jr. based on the stylistic matchup, noting Turcios' poor takedown defense and Rosas' strength and wrestling. He acknowledges Rosas' cardio issues but believes Turcios is not durable enough to survive the early rounds. Cody also likes that the fight was postponed, giving Rosas more time to prepare and make weight. He expects Rosas to get takedowns and potentially submit Turcios.
Daniel leans towards Rosas due to his physicality and early dominance, but acknowledges Turcios' experience and the possibility of Rosas gassing late. He notes Rosas' style requires high energy, similar to Aljamain Sterling, and that Turcios could take over if he makes Rosas work. He picks Rosas but wouldn't be surprised by a late fade.
Jacob picks Raul Rosas Jr., calling it a simple matchup: a relentless wrestler against a guy who can't defend takedowns. He notes that Turcios has empty pressure and isn't dangerous. He thinks Rosas will get takedowns and control the fight, and even if he gasses, he can still win. He is confident Rosas gets it done easily.
Rosas Jr. is a young grappler with strong scrambling and control, while Turcios is unorthodox and hard to submit. The fight will likely be a grappling-heavy scramble, with Rosas Jr. getting more control time and winning a decision. However, Turcios' experience and weird style make it tough to trust Rosas at -220. Over 2.5 rounds is a better play.
Paul picks Rosas Jr., noting that Turcios is a terrible stylistic matchup for Rosas due to his poor takedown defense and lack of finishing ability. He believes Rosas will take him down early and often, and while Rosas has cardio issues, Turcios is not good enough to capitalize. Paul expects Rosas to win by submission or decision.
The Guru picks Rosas Jr. because Turcios has looked embarrassing in recent fights, especially against Kevin Natividad and Aiemann Zahabi, where he didn't want to engage. He says Rosas will put him away just by wanting to win. He notes Turcios has good takedown defense but Rosas is relentless and will find a way to jump to the back. He predicts a first-round rear-naked choke.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Turcios | 0 | 68 of 115 | 59% | 170 of 224 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 3 | 6:17 |
| Kevin Natividad | 1 | 41 of 81 | 50% | 61 of 109 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 5:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Turcios | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 49 of 62 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 2:30 |
| Kevin Natividad | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 11 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 | |
| 2 | Ricky Turcios | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 52 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:26 |
| Kevin Natividad | 0 | 17 of 29 | 58% | 32 of 49 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 3 | Ricky Turcios | 0 | 29 of 49 | 59% | 69 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Kevin Natividad | 1 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 18 of 38 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Turcios | 68 of 115 | 59% | 65 of 112 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 63 | 5 of 11 | 35 of 41 |
| Kevin Natividad | 41 of 81 | 50% | 33 of 70 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 55 | 5 of 9 | 13 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Turcios | 17 of 27 | 62% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 13 |
| Kevin Natividad | 9 of 19 | 47% | 4 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Ricky Turcios | 22 of 39 | 56% | 20 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 25 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 8 |
| Kevin Natividad | 17 of 29 | 58% | 14 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 8 | |
| 3 | Ricky Turcios | 29 of 49 | 59% | 29 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 20 |
| Kevin Natividad | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 54 of 105 | 51% | 54 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ricky Turcios | 0 | 27 of 235 | 11% | 27 of 235 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ricky Turcios | 0 | 7 of 53 | 13% | 7 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ricky Turcios | 0 | 10 of 84 | 11% | 10 of 84 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 21 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ricky Turcios | 0 | 10 of 98 | 10% | 10 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aiemann Zahabi | 54 of 105 | 51% | 18 of 59 | 9 of 14 | 27 of 32 | 53 of 104 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ricky Turcios | 27 of 235 | 11% | 14 of 204 | 5 of 21 | 8 of 10 | 27 of 235 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aiemann Zahabi | 12 of 23 | 52% | 3 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ricky Turcios | 7 of 53 | 13% | 3 of 46 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Aiemann Zahabi | 21 of 46 | 45% | 10 of 29 | 2 of 6 | 9 of 11 | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ricky Turcios | 10 of 84 | 11% | 4 of 72 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Aiemann Zahabi | 21 of 36 | 58% | 5 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 17 | 21 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ricky Turcios | 10 of 98 | 10% | 7 of 86 | 1 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 98 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Turcios (-190), Zahabi (+160)
Round 1
Unexpectedly, this preliminary contest now is slotted on the main card, as bantamweights go at it. Tristar’s Zahabi (8-2, 2-2 UFC) makes his way back to the Octagon for the first time in over 16 months. He will do so against “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 29 winner Turcios (11-2, 1-0 UFC), who himself has been out of action since August. Cage corrosion will be kicked off in front of referee Chris Tognoni, and the returning gentlemen do not touch ‘em up before proceeding. Turcios very violently stomps the floor a few times for feints, and he wings a hook kick and lets loose a kiai to follow, even as it is feet away from the target. The Canadian ducks back when Turcios walks him down and flicks out several jabs, and he intercepts Zahabi on the way in with a front kick right on the chin. Turcios employs a more traditional martial arts stance, bouncing back and forth on his feet, and his movement is making Zahabi struggle to close the distance. The Tristar Gym fighter rushes forward, and he only manages to land one right hand before he has to back off. Turcios slaps him in the chest with a kick, and he puts another front kick out after stomping the floor loudly. Zahabi kicks him in the ribs, and he blocks a high kick and counters with a left hook. Turcios tosses up a head kick, and as Zahabi guards it and recovers, he shoots in for a takedown. Zahabi manages to sprawl well enough to break away and reset, and they trade kicks from range. Turcios just misses with a front kick, and he widely misses with another. As Zahabi plods forward, Turcios clips him with a right hook, and Zahabi keeps a stiff upper lip but may be stung from the blow. When Zahabi backs off, Turcios stomps the ground repeatedly and tells Zahabi to come on. Turcios kicks high again and pursues a takedown to follow, and Zahabi is wise to it. They kick one another in the body, and Turcios spins with a back fist that is at least a meter away from where he planned on it landing. Zahabi connects with a leg kick, and Turcios taunts him with a shout. The awkward stance and posturing of Turcios is allowing him to dictate much of the action, even if his high-flying strikes are all hugely inaccurate. Turcios kicks with body legs, and he jabs out several times, shouting every time. Zahabi swings and hits air in a counter, and the strange round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Turcios
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Turcios
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Turcios
Round 2
Turcios leads out with a glove touch, and Zahabi accepts it to start off the round. The leg kicks get traded one after the other, and other strikes do not find their homes. Zahabi blocks a few blows on the way forward so that he can sit down on a leg kick, and he slides back as Turcios comes at him with punches. Zahabi counters with a right, and he does not bite on the feints and shouts from Turcios. Turcios goes after a half-hearted spinning wheel kick, and Zahabi sprints forward to catch him spinning with a right. Zahabi keeps on kicking the leg, but his overhand rights brush past Turcios’ hair. The American kicks high, and it lands on the guard to little impact. Zahabi tries to throw the same strike, and it misses the mark. The accuracy rate for this fight is exceptionally low, as most strikes are either blocked or well short of their intended targets. Turcios comes out throwing hands, and Zahabi blocks each and every one and replies with a one-two. Zahabi’s leg kick may be his most successful strike, and Turcios pushes the pace but cannot connect with anything as Zahabi is slippery and evasive. Zahabi assaults the calf twice, forcing Turcios to switch stances briefly, and when Turcios returns to southpaw he lifts his leg repeatedly in anticipation of the kick. Zahabi slithers back and pops Turcios coming in. Turcios gives chase, throwing recklessly, but only a few of his punches come close to landing. Time expires to end this unexciting sparring match of a round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi
Round 3
The bantamweights meet in the middle to begin the final round, and Zahabi keeps his guard high to block any early strikes that come his way. Zahabi pounds on the inside of Turcios’ lead leg with a heavy kick, and Turcios switches stances to throw a kick but is miles away. Zahabi stops Turcios’ punches and kicks getting through, and his defense is solid but his offense is limited to low kicks and inaccurate counters. Turcios wings a right hand that is inches away, and he flicks out several jabs. Zahabi doubles up on leg kicks, and he swats away a punch and is similarly blocked when he attempts to load up on a right hand. Zahabi’s inside leg kick is paying dividends as Turcios’ wheel is slightly limited as he presents a minor limp. He does not slow, regardless of the damage, and he powers forward to throw punches that cannot find the mark. When Zahabi throws back, Turcios catches him mid-exchange with a pair of punches. Zahabi cleanly lands a low kick as Turcios ambles towards him, seeing the telegraphed strikes and playing matador to Turcios’ awkward bull. Turcios finally sits down on a punch, and Zahabi shrugs it off as if it never even landed. Turcios tosses up a light head kick, and Zahabi catches his plant leg on the way down with his shin. Turcios whiffs on a wheel kick, Zahabi wings a left hook that blows the hair back, and this fight is now mercifully over.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Zahabi)
The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Ricky Turcios via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is very confident in Ricky Turcios due to his high volume and pace, contrasting with Zahabi's low output. He notes Turcios landed 200 strikes despite being taken down 6 times in his last fight. He sees Turcios as a parlay piece and already has a moneyline bet at -175. He compares the matchup to Brian Barbarena vs Robbie Lawler, where volume overcame power.
Big Brady picks Ricky Turcios due to his relentless activity and minute-winning ability. He notes that Turcios has many holes in his game (poor takedown defense, hittable, reckless) but believes Zahabi's low volume (2.82 significant strikes per minute) won't capitalize on them. He thinks if the fight goes to decision, Turcios will do enough to win. He acknowledges Zahabi could win by knockout if he lands clean, but leans toward Turcios by decision.
Cody believes Turcios' relentless pace and cardio will overwhelm Zahabi, who fights infrequently and has low volume. He thinks Zahabi's only path is a knockout, but Turcios is durable and will outwork him over three rounds. He cites Zahabi's poor performances and lack of activity.
The host says he is picking Zahabi to win but does not place a bet on the fight. He mentions that Zahabi could knock out Turcios but is not super confident. He does not elaborate on reasoning beyond that.
Paul is interested in the over 2.5 rounds prop and leans Turcios due to Zahabi's inconsistency. He notes Zahabi has skills but rarely puts them together, while Turcios has a high work rate. He's not fully confident but sees Turcios as the likely winner.
The Guru picks Ricky Turcios, noting Zahabi's inconsistency and that his KO win was over a padded-record opponent. He believes Turcios' chin and pace will carry him to a 29-28 decision, especially as Zahabi is older and Turcios has a reach advantage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Turcios | 1 | 100 of 171 | 58% | 201 of 281 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 2:32 |
| Brady Hiestand | 0 | 66 of 134 | 49% | 82 of 152 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 0 | 1 | 7:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Turcios | 0 | 35 of 55 | 63% | 72 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Brady Hiestand | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 35 of 56 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 3:14 | |
| 2 | Ricky Turcios | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 42 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0:45 |
| Brady Hiestand | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 16 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 | |
| 3 | Ricky Turcios | 1 | 50 of 83 | 60% | 87 of 123 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Brady Hiestand | 0 | 27 of 60 | 45% | 31 of 64 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Turcios | 100 of 171 | 58% | 83 of 150 | 14 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 67 of 131 | 22 of 27 | 11 of 13 |
| Brady Hiestand | 66 of 134 | 49% | 59 of 124 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 52 of 117 | 8 of 10 | 6 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricky Turcios | 35 of 55 | 63% | 26 of 46 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 43 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Brady Hiestand | 24 of 43 | 55% | 20 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Ricky Turcios | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 7 |
| Brady Hiestand | 15 of 31 | 48% | 15 of 28 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Ricky Turcios | 50 of 83 | 60% | 42 of 72 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 36 of 65 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Brady Hiestand | 27 of 60 | 45% | 24 of 57 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 55 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Turcios, citing his crazy style, pressure, and variety of strikes. He notes Hiestand is formulaic and will struggle with Turcios' unpredictability. He has Turcios in his DraftKings lineup at 8700 and likes the more more on monkey knife fight.
Cody leans toward Hiestand as a live underdog, impressed by his takedowns and knockout of Vince Murdock on TUF. He thinks Hiestand's wrestling could neutralize Turcios, but acknowledges Turcios' experience and scrambling ability. Cody is worried about Turcios' takedown defense and thinks Hiestand could control the fight. He calls Hiestand a prospect and says the plus-140 line is not terrible.
Jacob picks Turcios but is hesitant, noting Hiestand's good takedowns and Turcios' defensive movement issues. He worries if Hiestand gets a hold of Turcios, it could be one-sided. He relies on Turcios' movement and volume to win.
Lock picks Hiestand as an underdog, citing his wrestling-heavy approach and ability to implement a game plan. He thinks Hiestand's jiu-jitsu is good enough to avoid submissions from Turcios. Lock is concerned about Hiestand's striking and cardio but believes he can secure takedowns and win rounds. He likes Hiestand by decision at +300 and considers him a potential dog of the night.
Paul picks Hiestand as a dog, noting his quick takedown entries and potential. He thinks Turcios' veteran savvy will neutralize Hiestand's striking, but he likes the over 2.5 rounds as a parlay piece. Paul is not fully confident in Hiestand's hands but sees value at plus-140.
The Guru picks Ricky Turcios by TKO in the later rounds, expecting Hiestand to grapple early but fade due to cardio. He notes Turcios' experience against better competition and Hiestand's lack of finishing ability. The Guru predicts a third-round TKO as Turcios pours on pressure.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Raul Rosas Jr., noting his relentless wrestling and takedowns. He acknowledges that Ricky Turcios has a wild style and good scrambles, but his takedown defense is poor. He thinks Rosas will get takedowns early and often, and while Turcios might survive, Rosas should win a decision or get a submission. He is confident in Rosas.
Big Brady picks Raul Rosas Jr. to win by decision. He notes that the fight is now in Louisville instead of Mexico City, removing elevation concerns. He highlights Turcios's zero takedown defense, having been taken down 13 times in his last two fights. He expects Rosas to chain wrestle and win a dominant decision, possibly dropping the third round if he slows down.
Cody picks Rosas Jr. based on the stylistic matchup, noting Turcios' poor takedown defense and Rosas' strength and wrestling. He acknowledges Rosas' cardio issues but believes Turcios is not durable enough to survive the early rounds. Cody also likes that the fight was postponed, giving Rosas more time to prepare and make weight. He expects Rosas to get takedowns and potentially submit Turcios.
Daniel leans towards Rosas due to his physicality and early dominance, but acknowledges Turcios' experience and the possibility of Rosas gassing late. He notes Rosas' style requires high energy, similar to Aljamain Sterling, and that Turcios could take over if he makes Rosas work. He picks Rosas but wouldn't be surprised by a late fade.
Jacob picks Raul Rosas Jr., calling it a simple matchup: a relentless wrestler against a guy who can't defend takedowns. He notes that Turcios has empty pressure and isn't dangerous. He thinks Rosas will get takedowns and control the fight, and even if he gasses, he can still win. He is confident Rosas gets it done easily.
Rosas Jr. is a young grappler with strong scrambling and control, while Turcios is unorthodox and hard to submit. The fight will likely be a grappling-heavy scramble, with Rosas Jr. getting more control time and winning a decision. However, Turcios' experience and weird style make it tough to trust Rosas at -220. Over 2.5 rounds is a better play.
Paul picks Rosas Jr., noting that Turcios is a terrible stylistic matchup for Rosas due to his poor takedown defense and lack of finishing ability. He believes Rosas will take him down early and often, and while Rosas has cardio issues, Turcios is not good enough to capitalize. Paul expects Rosas to win by submission or decision.
The Guru picks Rosas Jr. because Turcios has looked embarrassing in recent fights, especially against Kevin Natividad and Aiemann Zahabi, where he didn't want to engage. He says Rosas will put him away just by wanting to win. He notes Turcios has good takedown defense but Rosas is relentless and will find a way to jump to the back. He predicts a first-round rear-naked choke.
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