UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024 · Lightweight · Completed
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Age 28
Height 5' 10"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 28
Height 5' 10"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Myktybek Orolbai
2.78 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
2.7 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
8.77 TD Avg
59.0% TD Acc.
40.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Elves Brener
4.76 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
5.86 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.99 TD Avg
16.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Myktybek Orolbai
Moneyline
FanDuel -245
KO/TKO
BetWay +400
Submission
FanDuel +550
Decision
BetRivers +145
Elves Brener
Moneyline
Caesars +225
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1400
Submission
BetMGM +550
Decision
BetRivers +650
Myktybek Orolbai - Fight History
WIN vs Chris Curtis
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Curtis 0 12 of 31 38% 57 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Myktybek Orolbai 0 20 of 28 71% 83 of 102 19 of 24 79% 0 0 12:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Curtis 0 2 of 10 20% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 0 16 of 21 76% 49 of 65 7 of 8 87% 0 0 4:02
2 Chris Curtis 0 6 of 13 46% 20 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Myktybek Orolbai 0 2 of 3 66% 25 of 26 7 of 9 77% 0 0 4:13
3 Chris Curtis 0 4 of 8 50% 25 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 0 2 of 4 50% 9 of 11 5 of 7 71% 0 0 4:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Curtis 12 of 31 38% 6 of 25 6 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 28 2 of 2 1 of 1
Myktybek Orolbai 20 of 28 71% 13 of 18 3 of 4 4 of 6 5 of 10 1 of 1 14 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Curtis 2 of 10 20% 1 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 16 of 21 76% 13 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 3 3 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 16
2 Chris Curtis 6 of 13 46% 4 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1
Myktybek Orolbai 2 of 3 66% 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Chris Curtis 4 of 8 50% 1 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo confidently picks Myktybek Orolbai, believing his relentless wrestling and pressure will be too much for Chris Curtis. He notes that Curtis had the highest takedown defense in middleweight but was taken down easily by Brendan Allen, and expects Orolbai to do the same. He thinks Orolbai will cruise to a decision win.

"I don't see Chris Curtis winning this fight. ... Motorbec's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady picks Myktybek Orolbai to win by decision. He is concerned about Chris Curtis's age (38), layoff, and recent close fight with Max Griffin. He believes Orolbai is younger, hits harder, has wrestling upside, and is durable. He thinks Curtis's takedown defense, while good, hasn't been tested by wrestlers like Orolbai.

"I'm definitely going to My Titty Back here. I'm going to take My Titty Back to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody leans Curtis as a dog, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Orolbai's clunky technique and hittability. He thinks Curtis can outpoint him or catch him, but acknowledges Curtis is 39 and declining.

"I think I'm going to take a small little shot down the action man for old time sake."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Connor picks Orolbai, citing Curtis's tendency to lose focus and get distracted in fights, especially as he ages. He notes that Orolbai's relentless pressure could frustrate Curtis, leading to him arguing with the ref instead of fighting. He also mentions that Curtis has a history of finding ways to lose.

Orolbai opened at -250, currently -265; Curtis opened at +210, currently +225
"I think he is very clearly losing focus as he gets older and finding little distractions to get mad about in fights. ... And when a fighter gets to that point, unless they're in a really generous matchup, I just …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

James picks Myktybek Orolbai to win by decision, citing his volume, grappling upside, and the fact that Curtis often underperforms. He notes Curtis is a better striker but may be outworked and taken down. He calls it a strange fight and a potential stayaway for betting.

"I'm going to pick Oro to win the fight via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The host picks Orolbai to win by decision but is hesitant due to the high price. He expects Orolbai's aggression and output to overwhelm Curtis, but acknowledges Curtis is the better striker and could land a knockout. He notes that Orolbai's grappling may not be as effective against Curtis's defensive grappling, so the fight likely stays standing where Orolbai's pressure could edge him rounds. He suggests a hedge on Curtis by KO in round 3.

Curtis round 3 KO hedge
"I think Oro still gets the win here. I think he wins by decision. But I would think twice about this level of chalk against a veteran like Chris Curtis."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Paul picks Orolbai, citing his size, power, and youth. He notes Curtis' age and recent split decisions. He thinks Orolbai can bully Curtis and get a finish or decision.

"Oro by a minus 285 favorite to come back on. Your boy the action man plus 245."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Myktybek Orolbai

The Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his lightweight-level skills and toughness. He notes that Curtis struggled against Jack Hermansson, who Orolbai destroyed, and that Curtis's move to welterweight may not help. He predicts a TKO win for Orolbai.

Prediction: TKO
"I think Myktybek Orolbai is going to handle Chris Curtis... by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis despite being burned by him before. He believes Orolbai's unhampered aggression and lack of management tools will play into Curtis's counterpunching style. He notes Curtis's defensive wrestling and ability to catch Orolbai coming in, but acknowledges Curtis's tendency to lose focus and get frustrated.

Orolbai opened at -250, currently -265; Curtis opened at +210, currently +225
"I'll, I'll take Chris Curtis here. I just think a Ralby's unhampered aggression and complete lack of like management tools around that."
KO R1 2:46 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Hermansson 0 19 of 38 50% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 1 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Hermansson 0 19 of 38 50% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 1 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Hermansson 19 of 38 50% 9 of 25 5 of 8 5 of 5 17 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 15 of 33 45% 9 of 25 3 of 5 3 of 3 13 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Hermansson 19 of 38 50% 9 of 25 5 of 8 5 of 5 17 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 15 of 33 45% 9 of 25 3 of 5 3 of 3 13 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo picks Myktybek Orolbai over Jack Hermansson, calling it a life savings on the caveman. He describes Orolbai as a fun grappler with non-stop pressure, cardio, and power, while Hermansson is an aging welterweight moving down in weight, which weakens his chin and cardio. Orolbai's game plan is simple: takedown, smash, win.

"Moto Beck wins this fight. A 37-year-old welterweight Jack Herman Manson is not winning this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady picks Myktybek Orolbai (Mairbek Tukhugov) by first-round knockout, citing Hermansson's recent brutal KO loss and quick turnaround. He questions Hermansson's chin and weight cut to welterweight, expecting Orolbai to land a big shot and finish him early.

first round knockout
"Give me Mairbek to win. Mairbek to win by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Cody picks Jack Hermansson confidently, pending weight cut. He notes that Orolbai is one-dimensional, a weight bully who relies on takedowns but has poor striking defense. Jack has a reach advantage, excellent wrestling, and BJJ. Cody believes Jack can stuff takedowns and outwork Orolbai, who gasses and gets hit a lot.

"I got Jack Manson as well, but pending that he makes the weight and he looks good on the scales."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Connor picks Orolbai, citing his physicality and grinding style as a problem for Hermansson. He notes that Hermansson is making a drastic weight cut to welterweight, which often fails at this career stage. Connor acknowledges Hermansson's win over Joe Pyfer but sees Orolbai's natural size and aggression as decisive.

Orolbai by decision or late finish
"I think I'll trust my instincts and take a Ralby. He's basically been fighting as a welterweight already."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Lucrative James picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing the weight class advantage (Orolbai moving up from 155, Hermansson cutting from 185). He believes Orolbai has better striking power, durability, and grappling. He notes Hermansson's recent KO loss and questionable chin. He predicts Orolbai will win, possibly by knockout.

"I'm going to take Mick Tbec or buy for this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Orolbai is a pressure grappler with solid cardio and finishing ability. Hermansson is dropping to welterweight at 37, with durability concerns and a long layoff. Orolbai should overwhelm Hermansson and finish him via TKO or submission.

Orolbai inside the distance
"I'm going to go MTAC Oro by inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Paul picks Jack Hermansson, noting that Orolbai is moving up to welterweight and has struggled with bigger opponents. Jack is a natural welterweight with good wrestling and submission skills. Paul believes Jack's experience and size will be too much for Orolbai, who has poor cardio and striking defense.

"I like if Jack looks good on the scales on Friday, Cody, I'm gonna have a tough time not pulling the trigger on Jack at like plus 200."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The MMA Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai over Jack Hermansson, believing Orolbai's speed and technique will overcome Hermansson's size. He notes Hermansson's KO loss and weight cut to welterweight. He trusts Orolbai's grappling defense and offensive submissions, predicting a win.

"I'm going to go with Myktybek Orolbai beating Jack Hermansson."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Zane picks Hermansson, betting that his size and strength at welterweight will be enough to control Orolbai. He notes that Orolbai's success depends on physicality, and if Hermansson is too strong, Orolbai's one-dimensional pressure will fail. Zane admits it's a risky pick given Hermansson's recent losses.

Hermansson by decision; weight cut could be a factor
"I'm gonna take the flyer on her Manson just being big enough to control this fight and kind of you know, survive a mess."
WIN vs Tofiq Musayev
Submission R1 4:35 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tofiq Musayev 0 2 of 6 33% 17 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Myktybek Orolbai 0 2 of 7 28% 15 of 25 3 of 5 60% 1 0 3:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tofiq Musayev 0 2 of 6 33% 17 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Myktybek Orolbai 0 2 of 7 28% 15 of 25 3 of 5 60% 1 0 3:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tofiq Musayev 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tofiq Musayev 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his wrestling and toughness. He notes that Orolbai has shown he can win fights and has a good chin. He is concerned about Tofiq's two-year layoff and questions whether he is truly prepared. He thinks Orolbai's takedowns will be the difference and that $8,500 is a discount.

Calls $8,500 the discount of the century; expects takedowns and control.
"I'm going to pick Oroy. I think $8,500 is the discount of the century."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady picks Myktybek Orolbai (referred to as 'my tittyback') to grind out a decision. He notes Orolbai is very durable, has good cardio, and is relentless with wrestling and grappling. He is concerned about Musayev's striking power but thinks Orolbai's toughness and ability to get takedowns will be key. Brady expects a close, greasy war and predicts Orolbai by decision.

fight of the night potential, decision
"I'm going to take my titty back to mix in the takedowns and uh grind out a decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Connor picks Orolbai, agreeing that Musayev's potshotting style and reliance on wrestling as a backup won't hold up against Orolbai's relentless pace. He notes that Orolbai's losses to Rębecki and Brenner came against fighters who set or accepted a high pace, and that Musayev hasn't faced that kind of pressure. He believes Orolbai's physicality and ability to force exchanges will overwhelm Musayev.

"I have to pick Ralby just based off that, like the technical aspects, Musayev might be a more technical fighter everywhere than Ralby. Yeah, it really might be, but I have to trust that the pace is going to be …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The host notes Musayev is a solid power puncher but has sketchy takedown defense and defensive grappling. He expects Orolbai to eat some big shots but push through, land takedowns, possibly get a submission, but ultimately grind out a decision win.

"Mousv is a solid power puncher, but he has some very sketchy takedown defense and defensive grappling. And that's where I fully expect Oral Bay to expose Mousv. Look for Oro to eat a few big shots, but push through …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The MMA Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, praising his footwork and straight punches. He contrasts Orolbai's modern fight game with Tofiq Musayev's inferior footwork. He notes Orolbai's durability against Rebecki and expects him to take over in later rounds, predicting a 29-28 decision.

Orolbai wins by decision 29-28
"I'm thinking that my Takabor is going to have a good performance here. We may see to think Messiah take a first round and I think we're going to see Meko or take the second and third. So I'm going …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Zane picks Orolbai, citing the pace advantage that UFC-level fighters have over regional standouts. He notes that Musayev has not been tested by a high-pace fighter who constantly makes the fight happen, and that Orolbai's pressure and wrestling will be difficult for Musayev to handle. He acknowledges Musayev's technical edge but believes the pace will be the deciding factor.

"I kind of feel like I just have to pick oral by offhand here. Yeah, it really comes down to the idea of is Musaev such a special athlete that oral by can't can just just can't handle the shots …"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Rębecki 1 71 of 146 48% 93 of 174 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:24
Myktybek Orolbai 0 61 of 135 45% 85 of 162 2 of 5 40% 0 1 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Rębecki 0 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 0 22 of 51 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mateusz Rębecki 0 23 of 55 41% 24 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Myktybek Orolbai 0 25 of 57 43% 28 of 61 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:44
3 Mateusz Rębecki 1 21 of 34 61% 42 of 61 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:09
Myktybek Orolbai 0 14 of 27 51% 35 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Rębecki 71 of 146 48% 52 of 123 10 of 11 9 of 12 54 of 126 5 of 6 12 of 14
Myktybek Orolbai 61 of 135 45% 46 of 114 6 of 11 9 of 10 60 of 133 0 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Rębecki 27 of 57 47% 15 of 43 7 of 7 5 of 7 26 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 22 of 51 43% 13 of 39 2 of 4 7 of 8 22 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Rębecki 23 of 55 41% 17 of 47 3 of 4 3 of 4 22 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 25 of 57 43% 19 of 50 4 of 5 2 of 2 25 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mateusz Rębecki 21 of 34 61% 20 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 16 3 of 4 12 of 14
Myktybek Orolbai 14 of 27 51% 14 of 25 0 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Myktybek Orolbai vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cerqueira (-112), Aslan (-108)

Round 1
Another victim of a weigh-in day switcheroo, the two lightweights in Rebecki (19-2, 3-1 UFC) and Orolbai (13-1-1, 2-0 UFC) now find themselves competing at a 160-pound catchweight. It is currently unclear which man struggled to make weight properly—or it could be both—as they comfortably reached that mark together. Referee Vitor Ribeiro draws the charge for this matchup outside of standard weight divisions, and he checks the fight in as the two men tap their gloves together. Rebecki strides forward ready to throw hands, and he punches his way in and clashes his chest against his opponent’s. Orolbai pushes him back, and gets tagged by a left hand. The sheer momentum of the two make them crash together more than once, and Rebecki is throwing everything he has at his opponent. Rebecki pitches out a left hand that reddens the nose of his adversary, and leg kicks are traded. Orolbai sneaks in a short right, and Rebecki slides to the side and batters his opponent on both sides of the head with power punches. Orolbai pushes out a right hand, and they bang their heads together when coming towards one another. Rebecki punches his way into a clinch, and he escapes before Orolbai can take advantage of it. Rebecki chops at the front leg and spins around, and he loads up on heavy blows that do not make Orolbai budge one inch. Orolbai tosses out a head kick after a one-two, and Rebecki counters with a clubbing left hand. Rebecki’s face begins to turn red from a few absorbed blows back his direction, and he pays it no mind as he loads up on his big left. Orolbai sticks his opponent with a right and gets blasted with a scooping left hand, and it causes immediate damage that swells up his right eye. Orolbai’s eye balloons from the power punches, and Rebecki targets it like a bullseye. Rebecki chops down the front leg, and Orolbai walks him down and just misses with a head kick. A left hand from the Polish fighter opens up the nose, and he gets knocked down from a counter right that might have been from him being off-balance. The horn sounds as Rebecki scrambles back upright to attack again.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
Ribeiro calls in the physician to example Orolbai’s swollen right eye, which has almost completely closed between rounds. Orolbai passes the vision test and is cleared to continue for now. He starts off the round looking for a takedown, hoping to stifle the momentum of Rebecki. The Polish fighter loads up so hard with his left hand that he dislodges his own mouthpiece, and resets it and eats a huge right hand on the jaw. Orolbai connects with a head kick and shoots for a takedown, and the tree stump that is Rebecki stops it in its tracks. Orolbai splits the guard with an uppercut, and he loads up on massive right hands in hopes of hurting Rebecki or opening something up. This allows Rebecki to wrap his hands around the waist and push him against the fence. Orolbai drops down to the floor for a takedown, and although he trips Rebecki up, he cannot ground Rebecki. “Chinczyk” checks Orolbai’s chin with a left hand, and Orolbai has to take a moment to recover from it and absorbs a thunderous left on the busted eye. The beacon of a swollen eye is the perfect place for Rebecki to punch, and Rebecki punches it again and again. Rebecki uses a leg kick to open up a right hook, and he gets caught by a right hand from his opponent but does not budge. Instead, Rebecki surges forward with a wild left hand, and he dips away from an uppercut. Rebecki hammers the front leg with a kick and goes up top with a left, and Orolbai checks a second kick and shoots in for a double. Rebecki uses the fence at his back to stay upright, but a subsequent effort from Orolbai drags him to the ground. Before they hit the canvas, Orolbai appears to crash his head into his opponent’s and a cut on Rebecki’s eye splits open and starts pouring blood. Rebecki wipes at it but keeps swinging with full power, and Orolbai measures him with uppercuts and somehow counters him. Orolbai rolls with the punches and snaps the head to the side with an elbow, and he gets popped with two right hooks and completely shrugs them off. Orolbai connects with a left, absorbs a one-two, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Orolbai
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Orolbai

Round 3
With damage on both right eyes, doctors clear them without even needing to check on the fighters’ conditions. Orolbai opens up in the final round with an elbow, aimed at the cut. Rebecki unloads a left hand on the swollen eye socket, and it is miraculous that Orolbai can see out if it. Rebecki blasts his man in the face with a right hand as Orolbai is attacking with an elbow, and a bomb of a second right hand sends Orolbai crashing to the mat. Rebecki pours it on with an onslaught of right hands, smashing Orolbai’s nose to pieces and causing blood to spray across the Octagon. Ribeiro watches on closely but does not intervene, and Rebecki beats Orolbai like a rented mule. Rebecki wrenches Orolbai to the floor, hammering the fighter from Kyrgyzstan but not eliciting referee intervention. Orolbai muscles his way to a knee and his feet, and he continues to take destructive right hands and pursues a single. Rebecki remains on his feet despite Orolbai’s attempts, and he lowers himself to a knee and starts absorbing rights of his own. Rebecki turns the tables on his opponent and dumps him to his backside, climbing into top position while blood covers both men. It comes from both fighters, who leak and cover the mat as well. Through sheer force of will, Orolbai turns his opponent around and pounds on him with left hands and elbows to the body. Orolbai considers an arm-triangle choke but slips off the side due to the massive blood flow. Orolbai sits in half guard as Rebecki clings to his wrist, and Rebecki bursts back to his feet and is pushed to the wall. Orolbai is pushed away, and he drives a one-two on the chin. Rebecki tanks it and eats another power punch, and Orolbai rocks him with a huge right hook. Rebecki is totally spent, and he leans his back to the wall and survives to the bell. What a fantastic bloodbath, one instantly worthy of “Fight of the Night” and plenty of attention from physicians in the next few minutes. Just bleed.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (30-27 Rebecki)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (29-28 Rebecki)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (29-28 Rebecki)

The Official Result
Mateusz Rebecki def. Myktybek Orolbai via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo picks Myktybek Orolbai in a close fight. He notes Orolbai has better cardio, can close the gap and get takedowns, and has a good chin. He thinks Rębecki's only hope is a knockout, but Orolbai is durable. He acknowledges Rębecki is good and has been reliable in the past, but leans toward Orolbai's pressure and grappling.

"motto's the pick again super close fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady picks Orolbai, expecting a chaotic scramble-fest. He notes that Rębecki slows down as fights go on, as seen against Fiori and Carlos Diego Ferreira. He believes Orolbai's pace will be too much for Rębecki and that Orolbai will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts a decision win, possibly with a late finish.

"I'm going to take my titty back here to win this fight and I think he wins it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Cody picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his massive size and reach advantage over Rębecki. He notes that Rębecki gassed out in his last fight and has no plan B when his wrestling fails. Orolbai's size, power, and ability to lean on opponents will wear down Rębecki. Cody believes Orolbai will win by decision or late finish.

"sign me up for the much larger man or lebi"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Connor picks Orolbai, agreeing that he is more determined and a better round winner. He notes that Rębecki is a better puncher but more amorphous in his process, while Orolbai demands control and will not let Rębecki off the hook. Connor sees Rębecki winning the first round but losing the last two due to Orolbai's pressure.

"Yeah, that's the thing. I think I could see Robesky having a lot of success early. ... But if he can't ever stop from having to fight it off, yeah, then I, yeah, I think he's going to get tired …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Daniel Vreeland picks Orolbai, noting that Rębecki gassed out in his last fight after spamming overhands. He argues that Rębecki's wrestling won't work against Orolbai, who is a better wrestler and scrambler. Vreeland expects Orolbai to wear Rębecki down and finish him.

"M Toc oral by I mean like oralay is the clear pick here I think he wears him down and gets him out of there too"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Rębecki to win, but primarily because he sees value on the underdog at the current line. He believes the fight is closer than the odds suggest and that Rębecki's experience and pace could be decisive. Vreeland notes that Orolbai has shown vulnerability when things go south, as seen in the Brener fight.

"I'm going to go with him"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Jeff Fox agrees with Vreeland, picking Orolbai. He mentions that Orolbai has been impressive since joining the UFC and that he took him in his debut on short notice. Fox trusts Orolbai's skills and expects him to win.

"I'm glad I'm picking him then um if he's the clear pick yeah ori's been very good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Orolbai has the cardio and scrambling advantage, allowing him to avoid early danger and grind out a win. He could get a third-round finish or win on the scorecards. This is a grapple-heavy matchup.

Orolbai wins by third-round finish or decision
"I do believe orai has the cardio and scrambling Advantage which should allow him to stay out of too much danger early on in this matchup and then grind this fed out either winning a third round finish or winning …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Paul picks Orolbai, agreeing that Rębecki was exposed in his last fight and that Orolbai's size and strength will be too much. He notes that Orolbai is a mountain of a man at 155 and that Rębecki's cardio issues will be exploited. Paul is confident Orolbai will win.

"orabi is just a mountain of a man at this Division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his relentless pace and ability to dig deep. He notes that Orolbai pushed through adversity against Uros Medic and has shown good cardio. He believes Rębecki is good but may fade in the later rounds, while Orolbai's pressure and takedown attempts will break him. The Guru also mentions the humid Abu Dhabi environment favoring the tougher fighter.

"I'm going to go with Myktybek Orolbai over Mateusz Rębecki I think he can push more when the going gets tough."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Zane picks Orolbai because he is pot-committed to pressing forward and forcing his wrestling, and he is incredibly focused on making his fight happen. Even if Rębecki has early success, Orolbai's relentless pressure will gas him out and take over in later rounds. Zane notes that Orolbai is a round winner who stays calm and confident.

"I'm inclined to pick him just because I think, I just think he's incredibly focused on making his fight happen. And I think if he gets that fight, even if he's not all that overwhelming at first, it is going …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Myktybek Orolbai

Zane picked Orolbai but was worried he would hit a wall due to not being a physical force and having poor striking. He noted that Orolbai gets a lot done on heart and determination, but Rębecki crushed him in round one. Zane credited Orolbai for coming back and winning the second round, but ultimately scored the third for Rębecki because Orolbai was nearly dead earlier in the round. He called it a well-earned win for Rębecki.

"i picked or i'll be but i was really worried going in that he was going to hit a wall"
WIN vs Elves Brener
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Myktybek Orolbai 0 48 of 91 52% 79 of 125 3 of 6 50% 0 2 2:55
Elves Brener 1 65 of 119 54% 83 of 138 5 of 17 29% 0 0 7:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Myktybek Orolbai 0 10 of 19 52% 14 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:30
Elves Brener 0 20 of 35 57% 26 of 41 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:06
2 Myktybek Orolbai 0 21 of 34 61% 33 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Elves Brener 0 28 of 49 57% 35 of 57 2 of 9 22% 0 0 2:56
3 Myktybek Orolbai 0 17 of 38 44% 32 of 55 3 of 5 60% 0 1 2:05
Elves Brener 1 17 of 35 48% 22 of 40 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Myktybek Orolbai 48 of 91 52% 24 of 61 7 of 12 17 of 18 35 of 75 2 of 3 11 of 13
Elves Brener 65 of 119 54% 52 of 103 10 of 11 3 of 5 32 of 76 3 of 3 30 of 40
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Myktybek Orolbai 10 of 19 52% 6 of 15 1 of 1 3 of 3 6 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 5
Elves Brener 20 of 35 57% 16 of 29 2 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 22 0 of 0 12 of 13
2 Myktybek Orolbai 21 of 34 61% 10 of 21 4 of 5 7 of 8 15 of 28 2 of 2 4 of 4
Elves Brener 28 of 49 57% 21 of 41 7 of 7 0 of 1 13 of 25 0 of 0 15 of 24
3 Myktybek Orolbai 17 of 38 44% 8 of 25 2 of 6 7 of 7 14 of 33 0 of 1 3 of 4
Elves Brener 17 of 35 48% 15 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 29 3 of 3 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo is confident in Orolbai, disagreeing with the public narrative that Brener is a good underdog. He views Brener as a grappler despite his knockout wins, and believes Orolbai's relentless wrestling and cardio will overwhelm him. He compares it to Orolbai's win over Uros Medic.

"the elves brener Underdog train officially stops in Brazil"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady is impressed with Orolbai's upside, calling him 'great everywhere' and noting his dominant debut. He acknowledges Brener's toughness and finishing ability but believes Orolbai has more ways to win. He predicts a decision due to both fighters' durability.

"I'm taking Orolbai to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Elves Brener

Cody picks Brener as a dog, citing his takedown defense, scrambling, and striking advantage. He notes Orolbai is coming down from 170 and may have weight cut issues, and his wrestling-heavy style may not impress judges. Cody expects Brener to win a close decision or get a finish.

"I'm gonna go with Elvis Brener... brener is live for all those reasons and you add this plus money that looks juicy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Daniel Vreeland picks Orolbai, comparing his wrestling style to Khabib Nurmagomedov. He highlights Orolbai's pressure, takedown entries against the cage, and ability to stick to opponents. He believes Orolbai's suffocating style will be too much for Brener, who may struggle to create separation. He is willing to lay juice on Orolbai due to his dominant attributes.

"this guy oral by has the exact combination of attributes and fight style that I'm actually willing to lay juice on"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Orolbai is very dangerous with his relentless grappling approach and better gas tank. He will put Brener through the ringer and finish him in the second or third round. The money line around -250 is acceptable.

money line around -250, finish in second or third round
"I'm going to go with him to win inside the Distance by breaking brener and getting that finish in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Paul picks Orolbai, citing his physical strength and takedown ability. He notes Brener has been taken down before and Orolbai's power at lightweight will be a factor. Paul expects Orolbai to get takedowns and control the fight.

"I think he's rightful favorite at minus 250... I think he'll get the takedowns against Elvis whenever he wants them."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The MMA Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, expecting him to use his size, strength, and wrestling to control Elves Brener. He notes Orolbai's takedown ability and ground-and-pound, and believes Brener's scrappy style will be neutralized as the fight goes on. He also mentions Orolbai's experience against good opponents and his physical advantages.

"I'm going to go with oral oral by elves Bren is good but I can just see him getting ragged old by this inbred hideous unevolved freak"
WIN vs Uroš Medić
Submission (neck crank) R2 4:12 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Myktybek Orolbai 0 14 of 27 51% 17 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Uroš Medić 0 8 of 20 40% 16 of 31 7 of 10 70% 1 0 7:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Myktybek Orolbai 0 14 of 25 56% 15 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Uroš Medić 0 5 of 13 38% 6 of 14 5 of 8 62% 0 0 3:49
2 Myktybek Orolbai 0 0 of 2 0% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uroš Medić 0 3 of 7 42% 10 of 17 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Myktybek Orolbai 14 of 27 51% 10 of 20 4 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 14 8 of 12 1 of 1
Uroš Medić 8 of 20 40% 6 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 4 3 of 8 1 of 1 4 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Myktybek Orolbai 14 of 25 56% 10 of 20 4 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 12 8 of 12 1 of 1
Uroš Medić 5 of 13 38% 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 9
2 Myktybek Orolbai 0 of 2 0% 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uroš Medić 3 of 7 42% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Angelo picks Uroš Medić, expecting his technical striking and patience to light up the brawler Johnny Parsons. He notes Medić has speed, footwork, and a killer instinct. He warns that Parsons is always live for a knockout but does not think he will find it here.

"I think uros medic is going to light up Johnny Parsons because he's going to be more technical he's going to stay on the outside"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Uroš Medić

Big Brady was impressed with Orolbai's skills but notes he's coming in on short notice, which affects his cardio for a wrestling-heavy game plan. He thinks Medić is dangerous, has shown three-round cardio, and can finish fights late. He picks Medić by third-round knockout, but says on a full camp he would pick Orolbai. He doesn't see himself betting this fight.

"I'm gonna pick medic just due to the fact that oral is coming in here on short notice"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Cody does not make a clear pick due to lack of information on Orolbai. He notes the fight was added late and he hasn't studied it. He mentions Orolbai looks like a 'bad man' but is on short notice. He leans towards passing or taking the favorite but is uncertain.

"I don't really got a concrete answer for you I guess orbi is the cowards way yet I'll just take the favorite"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Orolbai has relentless grappling and crushing top pressure, with improved striking leading to knockouts. Medić is a striker with questionable ground game. Orolbai will dictate the pace with wrestling, land big shots, and find a finish in the second round. The fight doesn't go to decision is a favorite prop.

fight doesn't go to decision, Orolbai inside the distance
"give me oral by by uh let's say TKO inside the distance but even his betting line at minus 140 I think that is a gift of a line or obai inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Paul also does not make a clear pick, stating he hasn't looked into Orolbai enough. He mentions Medić's toughness and power but cannot confidently pick a side. He suggests the fight will be violent but passes on betting.

"I don't have I really don't know nearly enough about oral by to pick them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

The MMA Guru picks Uroš Medić to finish Myktybek Orolbai with a body kick. He notes Medić's size at welterweight and his win over Matthew Semelsberger, where he survived a knockdown and finished him in the third round at altitude. He criticizes Orolbai for making Danny Roberts look competitive and believes Medić's reach and height advantage will lead to a finish.

kick to the body finish
"I'm going to go with Uros Medic over Johnny Parsons... I reckon OS is going to finish him with a kick to the body."
Elves Brener - Fight History
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Esteban Ribovics 0 118 of 250 47% 123 of 256 0 of 9 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 122 of 281 43% 123 of 284 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Esteban Ribovics 0 36 of 68 52% 37 of 69 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 39 of 95 41% 40 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
2 Esteban Ribovics 0 48 of 88 54% 51 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 34 of 84 40% 34 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
3 Esteban Ribovics 0 34 of 94 36% 35 of 95 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 49 of 102 48% 49 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Esteban Ribovics 118 of 250 47% 88 of 211 15 of 23 15 of 16 118 of 248 0 of 2 0 of 0
Elves Brener 122 of 281 43% 86 of 233 23 of 29 13 of 19 114 of 268 0 of 0 8 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Esteban Ribovics 36 of 68 52% 21 of 51 6 of 8 9 of 9 36 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elves Brener 39 of 95 41% 29 of 83 6 of 6 4 of 6 31 of 82 0 of 0 8 of 13
2 Esteban Ribovics 48 of 88 54% 39 of 76 5 of 8 4 of 4 48 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elves Brener 34 of 84 40% 21 of 65 7 of 10 6 of 9 34 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Esteban Ribovics 34 of 94 36% 28 of 84 4 of 7 2 of 3 34 of 92 0 of 2 0 of 0
Elves Brener 49 of 102 48% 36 of 85 10 of 13 3 of 4 49 of 102 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Connor sees Ribovics as a durable, violent striker who enjoys pocket exchanges, which neutralizes Brener's main weapon. He notes Ribovics has technical skills and a camp that can improve him, while Brener's reckless style leaves him open to counters. Connor believes Brener's game is unsustainable and that Ribovics will land more significant shots.

"Ribovitch, I have a lot more faith that his durability, his game is built to take advantage of his durability in ways that are much more sustainable."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Lucrative James views Ribovics as the more educated striker with a diverse arsenal, including body shots. He notes Brener's durability may be declining, as he was hurt in recent fights by Joel Alvarez and Oro. He acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense is a weakness but doubts Brener has the grappling skill to exploit it for three rounds. He predicts Ribovics will land heavy shots and finish inside the distance, possibly by knockout or TKO.

Inside the distance; Ribovics by KO/TKO
"I think Rivix is going to win the fight... inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Zane agrees Ribovics is the pick, highlighting that Brenner's game relies on opponents not enjoying the fight as much as he does. Ribovics clearly enjoys brawling, which takes away Brenner's advantage. Zane notes Brenner's poor distance control and tendency to get hit, while Ribovics is a more technical and durable striker.

"I think that Rubavich is somebody who likes fighting every bit as much as Brenner. Oh, no denying. There's no doubt of that."
LOSS vs Joel Alvarez
TKO (knees and punches) R3 3:36 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joel Alvarez 1 95 of 141 67% 114 of 164 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:51
Elves Brener 0 45 of 97 46% 45 of 98 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joel Alvarez 0 25 of 36 69% 39 of 52 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:48
Elves Brener 0 15 of 27 55% 15 of 28 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:17
2 Joel Alvarez 0 31 of 45 68% 32 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
3 Joel Alvarez 1 39 of 60 65% 43 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Elves Brener 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joel Alvarez 95 of 141 67% 67 of 111 24 of 26 4 of 4 71 of 112 24 of 29 0 of 0
Elves Brener 45 of 97 46% 17 of 58 7 of 16 21 of 23 45 of 96 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joel Alvarez 25 of 36 69% 15 of 24 9 of 11 1 of 1 21 of 32 4 of 4 0 of 0
Elves Brener 15 of 27 55% 6 of 14 0 of 4 9 of 9 15 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Joel Alvarez 31 of 45 68% 19 of 33 10 of 10 2 of 2 31 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elves Brener 18 of 42 42% 6 of 24 5 of 10 7 of 8 18 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Joel Alvarez 39 of 60 65% 33 of 54 5 of 5 1 of 1 19 of 35 20 of 25 0 of 0
Elves Brener 12 of 28 42% 5 of 20 2 of 2 5 of 6 12 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alvarez (-185), Brener (+154)

Round 1
The main card kicks off with a potential banger at 155 pounds, between two athletes who combine for two decision wins across their 36 pro victories. Alvarez (20-3, 5-2 UFC) sports a marvelous 100% finish rate, while the two triumphs on the scorecards can be attributed to Brener (16-4, 3-1 UFC). In this Spain vs. Brazil battle, referee Lukasz Bosacki takes charge to make sure there are no ill international relations. There is a fist bump to get things started, and Brener engages with a pair of leg kicks. Brener jabs his way into range, and he kicks the lead leg and gets knocked back with a right hand. Alvarez loads up on a power right hand to get Brener’s attention, and he walks the Brazilian down while measuring him with a jab. Alvarez calmly cuts off the cage, and he pins a one-two on the chin. Brener ducks down, directly into a standing guillotine choke, and he furiously throws Alvarez off of him. Alvarez resets and jabs the body, and he hops away from a jumping low kick. Brener keeps working on the leg and tosses out a front kick to mix things up, strafing to the side when Alvarez advances. Alvarez boots his man in the head, rings his bell with two punches and rails him with a jump knee. Brener absorbs it all without flinching, and he ties Alvarez up and looks to throw him down. The gangly Alvarez does not go down, landing in a 50-50 position and getting back up. Alvarez targets the liver with a left and kicks his man as well. Blasting Brener in the body and then kneeing him on the chin, Alvarez lines up a few more knees until Brener shoots in on his hips. Alvarez welcomes this as he fastens a brabo choke, and Brener rolls to his side and back in hopes of defending the submission. Brener pulls on Alvarez’ shorts to defend it, and Alvarez puts as much pressure as he can muster on the choke. Brener miraculously survives to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez

Round 2
Alvarez is so ready to get back to it, he paces in his corner before they begin. When they do, gloves are briefly touched, and Alvarez moves right to the middle of the cage. Brener awkwardly moves back and forth, hands up and down, but Alvarez does not flinch even when absorbing a clean left hand on the jaw. Alvarez swings his way in, and Brener counters with a left and digs a body shot to open up a right hand over the top. Alvarez pushes with a front kick and irritates Brener’s nose with a long jab, and he aims a jab at the body while backing away from a front kick. Alvarez zips a left and a right to the midsection, and Brener charges, landing and getting caught with a right at the end. Brener kicks the body a few times, and Alvarez jabs him up. Brener works the body and shoots for a takedown, where he pushes Alvarez to the wall but cannot wrench him to the canvas. Alvarez splits off and jabs a front kick to the ribs, and Brener kicks him and rushes away. Brener swipes out with a left hook, and it is one-and-done. Alvarez continues to plod forward, sneaking a left around the guard and aiming a right hand to the sternum. Alvarez blocks a kick aimed at his noggin and keeps the pressure going, doubling up on a jab to make Brener scoot away. Alvarez follows him around, jabbing and following one with a low kick. Brener kicks him back in the same spot, and he darts in with a leaping left. Alvarez catches Brener coming in with a sniping left, and he just misses with a long right hand and a head kick. Brener keeps moving to not take anything flush, and he scoops a left hand under the guard. Alvarez paws out a few jabs to stay busy, and he backs off when Brener charges him. Brener walks through a jab to connect with a right hand, and Alvarez walks him down and boots him in the raised guard. Brener tries to jump knee him, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez

Round 3
The fighters motion to the crowd to get them energized, which works while they meet in the middle and clap their hands together. Brener scores a low kick and hurries away, and he is out of range from a front kick. They crash together with right hands, and Alvarez walks through a leg kick to track him down. Brener is on his bike, not planting his feet for long, but that does not stop Alvarez from popping him with a one-two. A rushed exchange from Brener results him in getting tagged more often and more effectively, so he breaks off and tries a spinning strike. Alvarez blocks it without issue, and he goes to the body with a left and kicks high twice. Brener guards against both and connects with a leg kick, and he sprints in with a left hand and backs off when Alvarez kicks him in the lead calf. Alvarez jabs and sets up a hook when Brener does the same, and Brener pours it on but that only results in him getting worked.
Alvarez rocks him with a left hand, drawing blood with a combination that follows around the left eye, and he chains a dozen or so knees to the head. Bosacki watches on closely as Alvarez clobbers him with furious knees, and Brener’s legs eventually give out beneath him. “El Fenomeno” only needs a pair of left hands to finish the job
, as Bosacki is on top of the action and rescues the Brazilian from further punishment. Alvarez retains his 100% finish rate with the stoppage late in the fight, while handing the durable Brener his first finish loss.

The Official Result
Joel Alvarez def. Elves Brener R3 3:36 via TKO (Knees and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Elves Brener

Angelo picks Brener but is hesitant because of the submission threat from Alvarez. He notes Alvarez has never taken anyone down but submits opponents who take him down, except Arman Tsarukyan. He thinks Brener is the more powerful striker and may keep it on the feet, but worries about Brener's submission defense if he wrestles.

"ell brener will be the pick here but I'll be biting my nails the entire time"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Elves Brener

Big Brady is leaning towards Brener despite Alvarez's dangerous finishing ability. He notes Alvarez has a 100% finish rate but questions his durability and ability to handle pressure, recalling Alvarez's loss to Arman Tsarukyan where he was beaten on the ground. He thinks Brener's pressure and pace could break Alvarez later in the fight, predicting a third-round TKO.

"I'm kind of leaning leaning brener here uh you know brener is a guy that is going to push through adversity whereas I'm not sure I could say the same thing about Alvarez"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Cody picks Joel Alvarez, citing his massive size advantage and superior BJJ. He notes that Brener is undersized and has been hurt by smaller opponents. Cody thinks Alvarez can use his reach and knees to keep Brener at range, and if Brener shoots, Alvarez can submit him. He also mentions that Alvarez has good striking and has finished fights standing. Cody believes Brener's upset streak ends here.

"I think I'm going to go with Joel Alvarez."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Alvarez is more dangerous with his size, length, and power. He can shell opponents up and pick them apart, and has more tools to sink in chokes and use elbows and knees. He should finish Brener within two rounds.

finishes within two rounds
"I think Alvarez has a little bit more Tools in terms of his ability to sink in chokes and really put the pressure on with his elbows and knees and I think that will eventually catch up to brener here …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

Paul picks Joel Alvarez, noting his size and submission skills. He thinks Alvarez can win inside the distance, possibly by submission. Paul acknowledges that Brener could take over if the fight goes deep, but he expects Alvarez to finish early. He also mentions that the fight ends inside the distance is a good prop.

fight ends inside the distance -200
"I will be looking to like you know fight ends inside the distance minus 200 I think that's my favorite way to attack that fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Joel Alvarez

The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez over Elves Brener, noting that Brener always gets hurt in fights and Alvarez finishes when he hurts opponents. He highlights Alvarez's massive reach advantage and nasty calf kicks. He thinks Brener's only good win is against Kaynan Kruschewsky and that he was getting beaten by Guram Kutateladze before a comeback. He expects Alvarez to crack Brener and put him away.

"I'm going to go with Joel Alvarez I think he will crack elves Brena and if he does he'll put him away because Brena does get cracked"
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Myktybek Orolbai 0 48 of 91 52% 79 of 125 3 of 6 50% 0 2 2:55
Elves Brener 1 65 of 119 54% 83 of 138 5 of 17 29% 0 0 7:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Myktybek Orolbai 0 10 of 19 52% 14 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:30
Elves Brener 0 20 of 35 57% 26 of 41 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:06
2 Myktybek Orolbai 0 21 of 34 61% 33 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Elves Brener 0 28 of 49 57% 35 of 57 2 of 9 22% 0 0 2:56
3 Myktybek Orolbai 0 17 of 38 44% 32 of 55 3 of 5 60% 0 1 2:05
Elves Brener 1 17 of 35 48% 22 of 40 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Myktybek Orolbai 48 of 91 52% 24 of 61 7 of 12 17 of 18 35 of 75 2 of 3 11 of 13
Elves Brener 65 of 119 54% 52 of 103 10 of 11 3 of 5 32 of 76 3 of 3 30 of 40
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Myktybek Orolbai 10 of 19 52% 6 of 15 1 of 1 3 of 3 6 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 5
Elves Brener 20 of 35 57% 16 of 29 2 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 22 0 of 0 12 of 13
2 Myktybek Orolbai 21 of 34 61% 10 of 21 4 of 5 7 of 8 15 of 28 2 of 2 4 of 4
Elves Brener 28 of 49 57% 21 of 41 7 of 7 0 of 1 13 of 25 0 of 0 15 of 24
3 Myktybek Orolbai 17 of 38 44% 8 of 25 2 of 6 7 of 7 14 of 33 0 of 1 3 of 4
Elves Brener 17 of 35 48% 15 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 29 3 of 3 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo is confident in Orolbai, disagreeing with the public narrative that Brener is a good underdog. He views Brener as a grappler despite his knockout wins, and believes Orolbai's relentless wrestling and cardio will overwhelm him. He compares it to Orolbai's win over Uros Medic.

"the elves brener Underdog train officially stops in Brazil"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady is impressed with Orolbai's upside, calling him 'great everywhere' and noting his dominant debut. He acknowledges Brener's toughness and finishing ability but believes Orolbai has more ways to win. He predicts a decision due to both fighters' durability.

"I'm taking Orolbai to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Elves Brener

Cody picks Brener as a dog, citing his takedown defense, scrambling, and striking advantage. He notes Orolbai is coming down from 170 and may have weight cut issues, and his wrestling-heavy style may not impress judges. Cody expects Brener to win a close decision or get a finish.

"I'm gonna go with Elvis Brener... brener is live for all those reasons and you add this plus money that looks juicy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Daniel Vreeland picks Orolbai, comparing his wrestling style to Khabib Nurmagomedov. He highlights Orolbai's pressure, takedown entries against the cage, and ability to stick to opponents. He believes Orolbai's suffocating style will be too much for Brener, who may struggle to create separation. He is willing to lay juice on Orolbai due to his dominant attributes.

"this guy oral by has the exact combination of attributes and fight style that I'm actually willing to lay juice on"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Orolbai is very dangerous with his relentless grappling approach and better gas tank. He will put Brener through the ringer and finish him in the second or third round. The money line around -250 is acceptable.

money line around -250, finish in second or third round
"I'm going to go with him to win inside the Distance by breaking brener and getting that finish in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Paul picks Orolbai, citing his physical strength and takedown ability. He notes Brener has been taken down before and Orolbai's power at lightweight will be a factor. Paul expects Orolbai to get takedowns and control the fight.

"I think he's rightful favorite at minus 250... I think he'll get the takedowns against Elvis whenever he wants them."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The MMA Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, expecting him to use his size, strength, and wrestling to control Elves Brener. He notes Orolbai's takedown ability and ground-and-pound, and believes Brener's scrappy style will be neutralized as the fight goes on. He also mentions Orolbai's experience against good opponents and his physical advantages.

"I'm going to go with oral oral by elves Bren is good but I can just see him getting ragged old by this inbred hideous unevolved freak"
KO (punch) R1 4:01 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elves Brener 1 16 of 33 48% 16 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Kaynan Kruschewsky 0 8 of 31 25% 8 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elves Brener 1 16 of 33 48% 16 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Kaynan Kruschewsky 0 8 of 31 25% 8 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elves Brener 16 of 33 48% 6 of 20 2 of 3 8 of 10 16 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kaynan Kruschewsky 8 of 31 25% 6 of 25 2 of 6 0 of 0 8 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elves Brener 16 of 33 48% 6 of 20 2 of 3 8 of 10 16 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kaynan Kruschewsky 8 of 31 25% 6 of 25 2 of 6 0 of 0 8 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kaynan Kruschewsky

Angelo picks Kruschewsky (referred to as 'reix' or 'rabix') despite Brener's upset win over Guram. He thinks the striking gap is wide and Brener's knockout was a lucky punch in a fight he was losing. He notes Kruschewsky has sneaky power, solid BJJ, but takedown defense is a concern. He placed a half-unit bet on Kruschewsky at +113, now +130.

half unit bet at +113, now +130
"I threw a half a unit on him at plus 113 I love the underdog money he's plus 130 now"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Elves Brener

Daniel Levi picks Elves Brener, noting his well-rounded skills, toughness, and ability to overcome adversity. He acknowledges that Brener's kill-or-be-killed style leaves openings and he gets hurt in fights, but he has never been finished. Levi is wary of Kruschewsky's short-notice debut and his own impressive record, but believes Brener's preparation and hometown advantage give him the edge. He expects an exciting fight and picks Brener, but cautions that an upset wouldn't surprise him.

"I am going to go with Elves Brener here... definitely tune in for this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)

James passes on this fight because he hasn't taped Kruschewsky yet, as the fight was made only 24-48 hours ago. He mentions he had a bet on Rivaldo Vieira against Brener at +145, but that fight was called off. He does not provide a pick or analysis for this matchup.

"I'm going to pass this fight because I didn't um tap Kanan yet honestly guys I've been very busy this week."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Elves Brener

Brener has a BJJ black belt but doesn't often grapple; however, his path to victory is through grappling. Kruschewsky has sketchy takedown defense and Brener can control him on the ground. Brener is competitive enough in striking and has durability. If he implements grappling, he could get a submission finish, but there's low confidence because he doesn't usually grapple.

Brener by submission
"Give me Brener and Brener by submission but not a whole lot of confidence concerning he's not known to go out there and grapple his opponents into the mat."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Elves Brener

The MMA Guru picks Elves Brener over Kaynan Kruschewsky. He criticizes Kruschewsky's recent performances, calling them sloppy, and praises Brener's toughness and finishing ability. The Guru notes Brener's win over Guram Kutateladze and his competitive fight with L'udovit Klein. He predicts Brener will win by TKO in the later rounds.

"I'm GNA go with elves Brena after that performance against gam... I think he's going to win it by TKO in the later rounds"
TKO (punches) R3 3:17 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elves Brener 0 85 of 163 52% 99 of 177 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:23
Guram Kutateladze 1 65 of 132 49% 93 of 165 2 of 7 28% 0 0 2:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elves Brener 0 30 of 48 62% 33 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Guram Kutateladze 0 9 of 22 40% 26 of 42 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:11
2 Elves Brener 0 33 of 73 45% 41 of 81 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:09
Guram Kutateladze 0 27 of 57 47% 36 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
3 Elves Brener 0 22 of 42 52% 25 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Guram Kutateladze 1 29 of 53 54% 31 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elves Brener 85 of 163 52% 49 of 114 28 of 40 8 of 9 54 of 122 25 of 30 6 of 11
Guram Kutateladze 65 of 132 49% 42 of 101 15 of 18 8 of 13 53 of 112 6 of 8 6 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elves Brener 30 of 48 62% 17 of 30 10 of 15 3 of 3 18 of 30 12 of 16 0 of 2
Guram Kutateladze 9 of 22 40% 3 of 15 4 of 4 2 of 3 8 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Elves Brener 33 of 73 45% 21 of 54 7 of 13 5 of 6 23 of 60 4 of 4 6 of 9
Guram Kutateladze 27 of 57 47% 18 of 44 5 of 6 4 of 7 20 of 46 3 of 3 4 of 8
3 Elves Brener 22 of 42 52% 11 of 30 11 of 12 0 of 0 13 of 32 9 of 10 0 of 0
Guram Kutateladze 29 of 53 54% 21 of 42 6 of 8 2 of 3 25 of 46 2 of 3 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

Angelo picks Guram Kutateladze confidently, stating his striking is light years ahead and his takedown defense is some of the best in the division. He believes Elves Brener has no path to victory, as Guram won't get taken down or submitted. He thinks the line should be much higher, like -1100.

"this is definitely a garam spot I gotta go gram all the way here his striking is going to be light years ahead his takedown defense is some of the best in the division"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

Big Brady picks Guram Kutateladze to win by second-round knockout. He sees a massive skill discrepancy, noting Kutateladze went competitive with Mateusz Gamrot and Damir Ismagulov, while Brener's best attribute is grappling, which won't work against Kutateladze's takedown defense. He believes Kutateladze will land repeatedly and eventually finish Brener.

second round knockout
"I'll say garam kudet wins this fight by knockout in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

Cody thinks Kutateladze is a legitimate top-15 talent with strong wrestling and physicality. He notes Brenner's win over Zubaira Tukhugov was controversial (all media scored for Tukhugov) and that Tukhugov was an undersized featherweight. Cody expects Kutateladze to win by KO or decision, but acknowledges his injury history and short notice. He still picks Kutateladze.

"I gotta go with Cuda leads to just get him out of there probably with before the third round starts"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

Daniel confidently picks Kutateladze, citing his superior striking and power. He notes Brener has never been finished but expects Kutateladze to dominate, possibly by knockout or decision. He acknowledges Brener's toughness and submission threat but believes Kutateladze is on a different level, as reflected in the -600 line. He expects a clear win, though he leans decision.

"he's minus 600 for a reason and he will be my pick"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

Paul picks Kutateladze but notes the minus-700 price is hard to back. He mentions Kutateladze's layoff and injury issues, but believes his talent is far superior. Brenner's win over Tukhugov was controversial and Tukhugov was out of shape. Paul thinks Kutateladze should win, but it's risky at such short odds.

"kutata LEDs is the pick but at minus 700 I really don't think there's much there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Guram Kutateladze

The Guru picks Guram Kutateladze, citing a massive stylistic mismatch for Elves Brener, who was preparing for Jordan Levitt's slow, non-athletic striking and wet blanket wrestling. He notes Kutateladze's speed and danger, and his impressive performance against Damir Ismagulov, which showed top-15 level. He predicts a TKO finish, as Kutateladze's striking will overwhelm Brener.

"I'm gonna be going with Graham katatzi and I just want to point out... this is a really unfair situation for elves Brenner"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elves Brener 0 70 of 169 41% 73 of 172 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:11
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 69 of 157 43% 82 of 170 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elves Brener 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 24 of 67 35% 24 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Elves Brener 0 36 of 78 46% 36 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 23 of 52 44% 23 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Elves Brener 0 17 of 48 35% 20 of 51 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:11
Zubaira Tukhugov 0 22 of 38 57% 35 of 51 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elves Brener 70 of 169 41% 64 of 160 4 of 7 2 of 2 68 of 167 2 of 2 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 69 of 157 43% 30 of 101 23 of 35 16 of 21 66 of 153 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elves Brener 17 of 43 39% 14 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 24 of 67 35% 6 of 41 9 of 13 9 of 13 24 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Elves Brener 36 of 78 46% 34 of 74 1 of 3 1 of 1 36 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 23 of 52 44% 10 of 33 9 of 14 4 of 5 23 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Elves Brener 17 of 48 35% 16 of 47 0 of 0 1 of 1 16 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Zubaira Tukhugov 22 of 38 57% 14 of 27 5 of 8 3 of 3 19 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Angelo picks Zubaira Tukhugov, citing his excellent wrestling and takedown ability, which should dominate Elves Brener, who is stepping up on short notice. He notes that both have mediocre striking, but Zubaira's wrestling is the difference-maker. He expects the fight to go to decision and advises against including Zubaira in parlays due to the risk.

Fight goes to decision
"zubair is definitely the pick both of these guys are tough this most likely goes to a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Big Brady is very confident in Tukhugov, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes that Tukhugov has fought much better competition and has 100% takedown defense, while Brener is a grappler with poor takedown defense. He predicts a first-round knockout, as Tukhugov has power and will go after Brener early.

first round knockout
"I like to hook up and knock this guy out and I like him to do it in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Cody picks Tukhugov but hates the -600 price. He notes Tukhugov is talented but often fights to the level of his competition and has many split decisions. He thinks Brener is a step up in competition and durable. He expects a close fight and would not bet Tukhugov at that price.

"the pick would be zubair to Hugo do I agree with the price tag no"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Connor picks Tukhugov, agreeing that Brener has zero structure and can be taken out of the fight in any position. He notes that Tukhugov is an insane athlete who has moved past his bad fight period and now looks structured. Connor thinks even a bad Tukhugov would likely win, and that Brener is a regional-level fighter.

"Yeah, Brenner is very much your fight for leap no over fight. And oh God, yeah, you would still might most likely dog walk Brenner."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Tukhugov's overhand right and clinch grappling will be too much for the short-notice debutant Brener. Brener has a tendency to end up on his back, where Tukhugov can control him. Tukhugov's striking is limited but effective at crashing the pocket. Brener may have success with kicks early, but Tukhugov's pressure and wrestling will take over. The fight likely goes to a decision with Tukhugov grinding out a win.

"I think that hard-known striking style of tahugov is going to be able to crash the Pocket land those big strikes on Brenner possibly finishing him in the early goings of this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Paul picks Tukhugov but is not confident. He notes Tukhugov's wrestling and durability should be enough to control Brener, but the -600 line is unplayable. He sees Brener as durable and tough, but thinks Tukhugov wins by decision or late finish. He passes on betting.

"I think zooby should be able to take him down hold him down there... but yeah minus 600 what do you really do with the line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

The MMA Guru picks Zubaira Tukhugov over Elves Brener, noting that Brener is stepping in on short notice and lacks impressive competition. He believes Tukhugov will take it slow and steady, finishing Brener in the second or third round by TKO. He trusts Tukhugov's experience despite some past losses.

second round TKO
"I'm going with zubaira took a goth via second round TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Zubaira Tukhugov

Zane picks Tukhugov confidently, stating that Brener is a bad fighter with no structure to his game, who can lose from any position. He notes that Tukhugov is a massive step up in competition and has shown improved boxing and structure. Zane believes Tukhugov will likely dog-walk Brener, landing a huge shot or takedown.

"Zubard Tukugov is a massive, massive step up in competition."
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo is confident in Orolbai, disagreeing with the public narrative that Brener is a good underdog. He views Brener as a grappler despite his knockout wins, and believes Orolbai's relentless wrestling and cardio will overwhelm him. He compares it to Orolbai's win over Uros Medic.

"the elves brener Underdog train officially stops in Brazil"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady is impressed with Orolbai's upside, calling him 'great everywhere' and noting his dominant debut. He acknowledges Brener's toughness and finishing ability but believes Orolbai has more ways to win. He predicts a decision due to both fighters' durability.

"I'm taking Orolbai to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Elves Brener

Cody picks Brener as a dog, citing his takedown defense, scrambling, and striking advantage. He notes Orolbai is coming down from 170 and may have weight cut issues, and his wrestling-heavy style may not impress judges. Cody expects Brener to win a close decision or get a finish.

"I'm gonna go with Elvis Brener... brener is live for all those reasons and you add this plus money that looks juicy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Daniel Vreeland picks Orolbai, comparing his wrestling style to Khabib Nurmagomedov. He highlights Orolbai's pressure, takedown entries against the cage, and ability to stick to opponents. He believes Orolbai's suffocating style will be too much for Brener, who may struggle to create separation. He is willing to lay juice on Orolbai due to his dominant attributes.

"this guy oral by has the exact combination of attributes and fight style that I'm actually willing to lay juice on"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Orolbai is very dangerous with his relentless grappling approach and better gas tank. He will put Brener through the ringer and finish him in the second or third round. The money line around -250 is acceptable.

money line around -250, finish in second or third round
"I'm going to go with him to win inside the Distance by breaking brener and getting that finish in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Paul picks Orolbai, citing his physical strength and takedown ability. He notes Brener has been taken down before and Orolbai's power at lightweight will be a factor. Paul expects Orolbai to get takedowns and control the fight.

"I think he's rightful favorite at minus 250... I think he'll get the takedowns against Elvis whenever he wants them."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The MMA Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, expecting him to use his size, strength, and wrestling to control Elves Brener. He notes Orolbai's takedown ability and ground-and-pound, and believes Brener's scrappy style will be neutralized as the fight goes on. He also mentions Orolbai's experience against good opponents and his physical advantages.

"I'm going to go with oral oral by elves Bren is good but I can just see him getting ragged old by this inbred hideous unevolved freak"