vs
+400 -390
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg Next Fight
Age 37
Height 6' 4"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 28
Height 6' 2"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Anthony Smith
3.19 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
5.04 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
0.44 TD Avg
22.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Vitor Petrino
3.24 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.71 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
2.6 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
79.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Anthony Smith
Moneyline
Caesars +400
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1000
Submission
BetRivers +1300
Decision
BetWay +1200
Vitor Petrino
Moneyline
FanDuel -390
KO/TKO
BetRivers +112
Submission
FanDuel +700
Decision
BetRivers +235
Anthony Smith - Fight History
LOSS vs Zhang Mingyang
KO R1 4:03 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 10 of 21 47% 11 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Zhang Mingyang 0 63 of 81 77% 76 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 10 of 21 47% 11 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Zhang Mingyang 0 63 of 81 77% 76 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 10 of 21 47% 8 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhang Mingyang 63 of 81 77% 42 of 58 6 of 8 15 of 15 35 of 46 3 of 4 25 of 31
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 10 of 21 47% 8 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhang Mingyang 63 of 81 77% 42 of 58 6 of 8 15 of 15 35 of 46 3 of 4 25 of 31
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mingyang Zhang vs. Anthony Smith
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zhang (-500), Smith (+380)

Round 1
The purported last dance for storied veteran Smith (38-21, 13-11 UFC) has arrived, as he plans on calling it quits at the conclusion of his 60th pro outing, win or lose. Getting the honor of facing Smith on the way out, Zhang (18-6, 2-0 UFC) is a massive betting favorite having won his last 11 bouts by first-round stoppage. If that is soon to become 12, or if Smith can pull one more rabbit out of the hat, referee Jason Herzog will be the first to know. The emotional Smith does not touch gloves before getting down to it, and everyone in the building sharply inhales ahead of what’s about to come. Zhang attempts to strike first, with a high kick that is blocked and a low kick that is not. Zhang kicks the lead leg two more times, and a third flusters Smith and forces him to engage. Smith wings punches that do not land cleanly, and Zhang kicks his front leg again. The low kicks have already done some damage, as he is preemptively lifting his leg up to defend against them. Zhang has a few punches pound into the guard, and Smith ties him up. Zhang scores short knees on the inside, and Smith leans his weight on his opponent and frames off for an elbow that never comes. Zhang escapes, and Smith follows him and walks through low kicks and elbows. Zhang wraps a stern right hand around the guard, and his leg kicks continue scoring. Smith gets off an elbow through the guard, and he is quickly answered by a low kick. Smith jams another elbow on the dome, and Zhang gives him one back and slashes open a cut on the top of his head. Blood flows fast down his head, and he shakes his head to get it out of his eyes. Smith wipes his eyes out as Zhang keeps striking, and the nasty elbows from Zhang find their home on his cheek again and again. Smith says enough is enough when it comes to those strikes, and he shoots in for a naked takedown from afar. Zhang lands a strike to the back of the head, and Smith pulls guard to drag him into the grappling world. Smith sits up, and Herzog tells Zhang he is down and not to kick or knee him in the head. Smith takes some shots, and he sits up and gets bowled over with punches and elbows that continue battering him.
Herzog tells Smith to move, eventually raising his voice to scream that he needs to do something. Giving Smith way more time than most would be, Herzog allows Zhang to beat Smith down and spray blood all over the mat. Smith shells up on his side, the damage suddenly a bit too much for him. Smith falls to his back, and Zhang clobbers him until Herzog has seen enough
. Smith sits up and calls for a bucket, and he stands up and gives a middle finger to someone in the audience. “Lionheart” marches to the cage wall and shouts down someone in the crowd, and everyone looks around confusedly while Zhang tries to calm his opponent down. Smith shakes out of it, and he raises Zhang’s arm in the air to congratulate him for crushing his final moment to shine. MMA is a cruel sport at times, but as Smith fades away, it is possible—however unlikely—that China has a new star on its hands in the form of “Mountain Tiger” and his 100% finish rate. Zhang is now a ranked fighter, while Smith takes his gloves off to complete his retirement ceremony. Whether this is his final fight or not, the choice remains in the hands of the 36-year-old former title challenger.

The Official Result
Mingyang Zhang def. Anthony Smith R1 4:03 via TKO (Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Angelo picks Zhang Mingyang, believing his power and grappling will be too much for an aging Anthony Smith. He notes that Mingyang is a grappler at core with great takedowns, and that Smith's grappling is not a threat. He is slightly nervous because Mingyang is untested, but he has him in a parlay.

Parlay with Jaqueline Amorim and Ikram Aliskerov at -150
"I think Ming Yang gets it done. I'm pretty confident in him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Big Brady picks Zhang Mingyang, citing Anthony Smith's decline and poor reaction to punches. He expects Zhang's power to land a big shot and finish Smith early. He notes Smith has been counted out before but still favors Zhang by first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"Give me Jeang Mingong to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Connor picks Zhang because he believes Anthony Smith is a head case who has been declining and reverting to his old, losing ways. Smith's recent fights show him getting discouraged easily and running out of ideas. Zhang is a durable brawler who can soak up damage and extend exchanges, and Smith's current mental state makes him vulnerable to Zhang's pressure and power.

"I'm not picking him either. I just think, you know, he could totally win it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

The host leans Mingyang with low confidence, noting that if Mingyang doesn't get a first-round KO, Smith could take over late or get a submission. He expects Mingyang to find a shot, put Smith on wobbly legs, and finish with ground and pound in the first round.

first round KO
"I am going to lean with Jen with very low confidence as I think he ends up finding that shot to put Smith on wobbly legs and follow up with some ground and pound to get him out of there …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Mingyang to win by TKO in the first round. He is very high on Mingyang, calling him a real deal prospect with knockout power and sharp technique. He criticizes Anthony Smith's predictable style, emotional state (crying on walkout), and lack of a serious mindset. He believes Mingyang will overwhelm Smith early.

TKO round 1
"I think Jang Minyang is going to TKO him in the first round. And this is Smith's retirement fight. I'm not considering he's going to train harder for this than he has for any other fight in his career."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Zane picks Zhang, noting that even the worst version of Anthony Smith has the tools to beat Zhang, but Smith's emotional struggles and tendency to shut down make him unreliable. Zhang is fearless, powerful, and will fight without hesitation, which is a bad matchup for the current version of Smith. Zane also mentions that Smith's recent performances show him getting discouraged and losing focus.

"I'm not gonna pick him in the middle of all the struggles and just assume that the incredibly obvious, horrible emotional burden that he was, has carried with him into the cage before is gone."
LOSS vs Dominick Reyes
TKO (elbows and punches) R2 4:46 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Reyes 0 121 of 162 74% 172 of 232 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:51
Anthony Smith 0 21 of 46 45% 24 of 49 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Reyes 0 48 of 76 63% 53 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 21 of 46 45% 24 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
2 Dominick Reyes 0 73 of 86 84% 119 of 150 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:51
Anthony Smith 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Reyes 121 of 162 74% 110 of 149 8 of 10 3 of 3 48 of 75 17 of 22 56 of 65
Anthony Smith 21 of 46 45% 14 of 36 5 of 7 2 of 3 19 of 43 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Reyes 48 of 76 63% 38 of 64 8 of 10 2 of 2 47 of 73 1 of 3 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 21 of 46 45% 14 of 36 5 of 7 2 of 3 19 of 43 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dominick Reyes 73 of 86 84% 72 of 85 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 16 of 19 56 of 65
Anthony Smith 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Angelo picks Anthony Smith, arguing that Smith has been more active and fought tougher competition recently, while Reyes has been knocked out repeatedly. He believes Smith is more durable and technically sound. However, he emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick and not a betting recommendation. He notes both fighters are not durable, but Smith may be more so.

"Anthony Smith is going to be the pick though cry about it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody picks Reyes, believing he still has something left after his win over Jacoby. He notes Smith's tendency to fade after the first round and thinks Reyes' speed and accuracy will lead to a late TKO or decision. He acknowledges chin concerns but favors Reyes.

"I'll take Reyes... likely third round TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Anthony Smith

Connor picks Anthony Smith because he believes Reyes has not addressed the technical and confidence issues that caused his losing streak. He notes that Reyes' win over Dustin Jacoby was a 50/50 brawl where he landed first, and that Reyes has not shown any new tools or adjustments. Connor argues that Smith, despite his own confidence problems, is a tough veteran who will not fold easily and can capitalize on Reyes' mistakes. He also points out that Smith has never looked completely lost in a fight, unlike Reyes during his skid.

Connor mentions the odds are getting wider, with Smith at +248 to +273, and says he doesn't like those odds because Reyes' losses were bad.
"I'm gonna pick anthony smith a guy go for it. Yeah make i'll pick reas but I do not trust dominic reas."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel believes Reyes is the better fighter and will dictate the fight. He notes Smith's decline and slow speed, while Reyes regained confidence with a knockout win. He warns about Reyes' chin but expects him to avoid getting caught.

"I simply think that Reyes is a better fighter than Anthony Smith."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Reyes got back to winning ways by knocking out Dustin Jacoby due to Jacoby's over-aggressiveness. Smith likely won't be as aggressive, so Reyes will touch him up from distance over 15 minutes and win on the scorecards.

"I think that would lead to Reyes touching up Smith from distance throughout the course of 15 minutes and getting his hand raised on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Paul leans toward Reyes but is hesitant due to his knockout losses. He notes Smith's durability and early-round power, but thinks Reyes' speed and youth give him the edge. He considers the line too high and passes on betting.

"I can't touch Dominic Reyes... it's dog or pass for me, leaning pass."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The MMA Guru picks Reyes, calling Anthony Smith terrible and lacking talent. He believes Reyes has the game plan ability (having beaten Jon Jones) and will drill low kicks. He thinks Smith cannot take Reyes down or knock him out, and predicts a vintage performance with a TKO in round one or two against the cage via ground and pound.

Reyes wins by TKO in round 1 or 2
"I'm going Dominic Reyes I think Anthony Smith is terrible"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Zane picks Reyes but with low confidence, stating that if Reyes is confident, he should beat Smith easily. He notes that Reyes has the physical tools and style to pressure Smith and take him down, but he is concerned that Reyes has not made any technical improvements during his losing streak. Zane also points out that Smith is a tough out who can survive early adversity and come back, and that Reyes' confidence is fragile. He ultimately leans Reyes because he believes Reyes has more future potential, but he is not confident in the pick.

Zane comments on the odds, noting Reyes opened at -345 and is now -329, and says that a shocking knockout win over Jacoby does not make Reyes back.
"I think ray's is gonna hurt him and pick up a round and feel pretty good about himself... I would like to see ray as win."
LOSS vs Roman Dolidze
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 0 51 of 93 54% 51 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 100 of 185 54% 103 of 188 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 0 18 of 32 56% 18 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Roman Dolidze 0 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 48 of 73 65% 51 of 76 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:33
3 Roman Dolidze 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 30 of 60 50% 30 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 51 of 93 54% 27 of 67 4 of 4 20 of 22 51 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 100 of 185 54% 61 of 135 12 of 16 27 of 34 65 of 132 3 of 4 32 of 49
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 18 of 32 56% 6 of 19 3 of 3 9 of 10 18 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 22 of 52 42% 4 of 27 4 of 6 14 of 19 21 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roman Dolidze 11 of 16 68% 4 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 8 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 48 of 73 65% 40 of 63 4 of 4 4 of 6 14 of 22 2 of 2 32 of 49
3 Roman Dolidze 22 of 45 48% 17 of 40 1 of 1 4 of 4 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 30 of 60 50% 17 of 45 4 of 6 9 of 9 30 of 59 0 of 1 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Cody picks Dolidze despite concerns about his inconsistency. He notes that Dolidze looked good against Marvin Vettori but terrible against Nassourdine Imavov, possibly due to the lack of crowd energy in the Apex. Cody believes Dolidze will benefit from the live crowd at UFC 303 and that his durability and pressure will be key. He also points out that Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight before and that Smith tends to fade in later rounds if he doesn't get an early finish.

"I'm gonna go with Roman Dolidze... I think he can win the 20 pounds."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Daniel has no strong read on this fight, noting both fighters are opportunistic finishers with similar qualities. He sees Dolidze potentially getting takedowns and grinding, but ultimately goes with the underdog Smith because he doesn't know enough and prefers the dog. He acknowledges it could realistically go either way.

"I really don't have a good read on this fight... for that reason I'll just go with Anthony Smith as the dog but I could see it realistically going either way."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze, stating that Anthony Smith has no chin left and Dolidze has knockout power, as evidenced by his KO of Jack Hermansson. He believes Dolidze will stuff any takedown attempts from Smith and knock him out on the feet. Vreeland also praises Dolidze's underrated jiu-jitsu and sweeps, noting he won't fall into a dumb submission. He acknowledges the concern of Dolidze moving up in weight on short notice but still favors him.

KO prop at +275 mentioned
"I think Roman dedy first of all is gonna stuff any takedown that Anthony Smith throws his way and then second of all as you said he knocked out Jack her Manon... I think he's probably just gonna knock Anthony …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Jeff Fox picks Roman Dolidze, noting that Anthony Smith has no chin left and Dolidze has been knocking people out, including three straight before his last two losses. He mentions that Smith has screwed them over numerous times but still cannot pick him. Fox also points out that Dolidze is taking the fight on short notice but still expects him to win.

"It's me obviously I'm not picking Anthony Smith... he has no Chin left... I can very easily see him knocking Anthony Smith out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The host thinks Dolidze's aggressiveness could cause Smith issues, and that Smith does not have the technical striking to pick Dolidze apart like Imavov did. He predicts Dolidze will break Smith and get a finish in the second or third round. However, he is not confident due to Dolidze's lack of technical prowess and the short notice weight class change, so he says this fight is likely a pass.

Dolidze wins in round 2 or 3
"I do think that we see Del end up getting a finish here by breaking Smith and winning this fight probably in the second or third round but I'd say pass all around."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Paul leans toward Smith, noting that he has value as a plus-money underdog. He acknowledges Smith's tendency to fade in later rounds but believes Smith's striking is superior and that he can catch Dolidze early. Paul also mentions that Smith has a history of upsetting prospects and that Dolidze's last performance was concerning. However, he admits it's a close fight and that Smith's path to victory likely involves an early finish.

"I do see merit in him at plus money... Anthony Smith will be the pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

The Guru picks Anthony Smith over Roman Dolidze. He criticizes Dolidze as 'dog [__]' and believes Smith is a level above. He notes Smith's recent win over Vitor Petrino and his ability to survive on the ground, as seen against Jon Jones. He also mentions Smith will have a size advantage since Dolidze was preparing for middleweight. He expects Smith to win, possibly by finish.

"I'm going to go with Anthony Smith... I think Roman delzy is actual dog [__]"
WIN vs Vitor Petrino
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 11 of 20 55% 7 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 5 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 10 of 22 45% 4 of 14 4 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 11 of 20 55% 7 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 5 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 10 of 22 45% 4 of 14 4 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino due to youth, size, and strength, despite Smith being the better technical fighter. He notes Smith has taken too much damage and is past his prime, while Petrino is evolving. He calls it a 'changing of the guard' fight.

"vtor patrino is going to be the pick but this is a perfect evolutionary step up in competition for Vitor patrino"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady favors Petrino's youth and momentum, noting his ability to win by knockout or decision. He thinks Smith is past his prime and has taken too much damage. He predicts Petrino wins by grinding decision, possibly taking Smith down.

"I'm gonna say Petrino by like a grinding based decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Petrino, citing his physical strength, takedown ability, and power. He notes Smith's durability is questionable after the Krylov loss. However, Cody won't bet at -600 due to lack of value.

"I think he wins... but at minus 600 it's hard to say there's really any meat on the bone here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland picks Petrino, noting his physicality, wrestling, and youth advantage over the aging Smith. He highlights Petrino's takedowns in every UFC fight and his ability to push a high pace. He warns that Smith could capitalize on a mistake with a submission, but believes Petrino is the much better wrestler and more likely to win minutes. He does not lay the -600 price but is confident in Petrino's victory.

"it should be VOR all day here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Vitor Petrino. He also notes the risk due to Petrino's cardio and Smith's submission threat. Vreeland says he is staying away from betting the -500 line because Anthony Smith has screwed bettors over before when written off. He acknowledges Smith's grappling skills but thinks Petrino will knock him out if he fights smart.

"I'm staying away from betting the minus 500 line because Anthony Smith has has screwed us over in the past"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Jeff Fox picks Vitor Petrino but is wary of betting the -500 line. He believes Petrino will knock out Anthony Smith if he keeps his distance and throws bombs, as Smith has no chin left. However, Fox notes that Petrino got tired in his last fight, and Smith still has great jiu-jitsu. If Petrino grapples and tires himself out, he could get submitted. Fox calls it an IQ test for Petrino and says he is staying away from parlays involving this fight due to the risk.

"obviously patrino is to pick here uh as long as he doesn't attack Smith's family I think he's gonna knock him out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino is 11-0 and has developed in every aspect of his MMA game. He came in as a power puncher but now implements a grapple-heavy approach. He will put big punches on Smith, take him down, and grind him out over 15 minutes, showing that Smith is over the hill.

"give me patrino and patrino by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul picks Petrino but with hesitation, noting Petrino is still green, makes mistakes, and hasn't faced high-level competition. He thinks Smith is washed but could be competitive. Paul sees Petrino as a fade candidate at this price but expects him to win.

"I'm almost thinking that Vitor Petrino is that guy because he's suspect to me..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing his physicality, takedown defense, and knockout power. He believes Anthony Smith struggles against athletic, powerful opponents and often shells up under pressure. He notes Petrino's composed striking and low kicks, and expects him to exploit Smith's weaknesses, possibly finishing him.

"I'm going to go with uh Vito patrino put him putting him away"
TKO (punches) R3 0:56 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 47 of 84 55% 52 of 89 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Anthony Smith 1 53 of 114 46% 56 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 19 of 30 63% 23 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 20 of 40 50% 21 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
2 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 23 of 48 47% 24 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Anthony Smith 0 23 of 58 39% 25 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 1 10 of 16 62% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khalil Rountree Jr. 47 of 84 55% 27 of 62 14 of 16 6 of 6 46 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 53 of 114 46% 33 of 94 14 of 14 6 of 6 51 of 109 1 of 3 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 19 of 30 63% 9 of 19 6 of 7 4 of 4 19 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 20 of 40 50% 12 of 32 6 of 6 2 of 2 20 of 39 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Khalil Rountree Jr. 23 of 48 47% 15 of 39 7 of 8 1 of 1 22 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 23 of 58 39% 17 of 52 4 of 4 2 of 2 21 of 54 1 of 2 1 of 2
3 Khalil Rountree Jr. 5 of 6 83% 3 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 10 of 16 62% 4 of 10 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Cody likes Anthony Smith as a plus 190 underdog. He notes that Smith is taking the fight on short notice but is likely in shape due to his commentary work in Vegas. Cody highlights Smith's durability, cardio, and experience against top competition. He believes Smith can survive Rountree's early onslaught and take the fight to the ground, where he has a massive grappling advantage. Cody also mentions the small Apex cage helps Smith cut off the cage and get takedowns. He acknowledges Rountree's power but thinks Smith can outwork him in later rounds.

Smith by submission possible; small cage favors Smith's takedowns
"I think I'm going to hit some of that because again if he hits if he gets the fight to the ground I rear nak could choke is possible honestly there's a lot that could go right for us if …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Dec 9, 2023 (fight day)

Lucrative James calls this a 'weird ass fight' and refuses to break it down in detail. He sees Khalil potentially teeing off with leg kicks and body shots, but also notes Khalil's mental inconsistency and cardio issues. He thinks Anthony Smith could out-veteran him in later rounds with takedowns, but Smith doesn't shoot takedowns much anymore. He says it's a massive stay-away and if anything, he'd play Smith as a plus-money underdog due to volatility. He makes no pick.

if anything you just played a plus 190 on Smith
"this is a weird ass fight to me don't ask me to break this one down guys"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Paul agrees with Cody on Anthony Smith at plus 190. He notes that Smith is likely staying in shape in Vegas and has a good chance to survive Rountree's early power. Paul points out that Smith has five-round cardio and can take a shot. He thinks Smith's grappling and experience will be key, especially if he can get the fight to the mat. Paul is not a huge Smith supporter but finds the underdog price too good to pass up.

"I hate that I agree with you but you know we were on Cody budge so let's do it again I haven't been the biggest Anthony Smith supporter whatsoever but yeah at this number it is short notice but at …"
WIN vs Ryan Spann
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 91 of 147 61% 91 of 147 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:56
Ryan Spann 0 59 of 187 31% 62 of 191 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 24 of 42 57% 24 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:45
Ryan Spann 0 10 of 41 24% 10 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Anthony Smith 0 22 of 36 61% 22 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Ryan Spann 0 22 of 60 36% 25 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
3 Anthony Smith 0 45 of 69 65% 45 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ryan Spann 0 27 of 86 31% 27 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 91 of 147 61% 44 of 92 12 of 15 35 of 40 90 of 146 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 59 of 187 31% 39 of 158 14 of 23 6 of 6 50 of 174 0 of 0 9 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 24 of 42 57% 9 of 25 1 of 1 14 of 16 23 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 10 of 41 24% 5 of 32 4 of 8 1 of 1 10 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Anthony Smith 22 of 36 61% 10 of 22 4 of 4 8 of 10 22 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 22 of 60 36% 16 of 52 5 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 47 0 of 0 9 of 13
3 Anthony Smith 45 of 69 65% 25 of 45 7 of 10 13 of 14 45 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 27 of 86 31% 18 of 74 5 of 8 4 of 4 27 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo believes Smith's best days are behind him, citing his recent loss to Johnny Walker where he was dropped and then headhunted. He thinks Spann will be too big, fast, and powerful for Smith. He has a full unit bet on Spann at -147, noting that the bet is more about Smith's decline than Spann's rise.

Full unit bet on Ryan Spann at -147
"I think that this is gonna be Ryan span all day I have a full unit on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady questions why this rematch is happening, noting Anthony Smith dominated the first fight. However, he believes Smith looks uninterested and has taken too much damage, citing his recent performances against Johnny Walker and Magomed Ankalaev. He thinks Spann is dangerous everywhere and will knock out Smith in the first round, as Smith's durability is declining.

first round knockout
"give me Ryan span to knock out Anthony Smith in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Cody picks Smith because he already beat Spann via submission and is getting plus money. He notes that Spann is a one-round fighter who fades under adversity, while Smith has better grappling and durability. Cody believes Smith can survive the early onslaught and take over later in the fight.

Smith by submission; under 1.5 rounds
"Smith beat him clean with the Striking last time and then finished the deal with the submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Daniel picks Ryan Spann, reasoning that Spann is an athletic freak who can catch Smith early. He notes that Smith is coming off a leg break and looked terrible against Johnny Walker. He acknowledges that Smith dominated the first fight, but believes Spann's power and explosiveness give him a chance to finish early. He is not confident, calling it a lean.

"I'm gonna go Ryan span to catch him early and just get him out of there kind of a front running loaded Victory"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Anthony Smith

James picks Anthony Smith, citing his cardio advantage and durability. He notes Smith hurt and submitted Spann in their first fight, and Spann's finishing equity drops after round one. He believes Smith is not as washed as some think and that the line is off. He also mentions Smith's historical durability and difficulty to submit.

"I'm all over the Smith side here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

The host recalls Smith's submission win over Spann in their first fight and believes Smith's veteran experience and confidence will allow him to replicate that performance. He notes Spann is dangerous early but fades, and expects Smith to exchange in the pocket, hurt Spann, and submit him again. The host likes the under 1.5 rounds prop and finds Smith as a dog 'absolutely crazy'.

under 1.5 rounds
"Give me Smith as the dog which I find absolutely crazy considering this fight you know happened like two years ago not much has changed."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Paul initially picks Spann due to his recent wins and early explosiveness, but after Cody corrects him on the first fight result, he switches to Smith. However, his original pick was Spann, so we capture that. He notes Spann is dangerous early but fades, and Smith is durable enough to survive.

under 1.5 rounds
"I'll pick span because he already won seems to have a bit of a grappling Edge early"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann in the rematch, believing Anthony Smith has declined physically and mentally. He notes Smith's poor physique and lack of fast-twitch fibers, comparing him to a fighter past his prime. He thinks Spann's scrambling and power will be enough, and that Smith won't land the same hook again. He predicts Spann will catch Smith and finish him, possibly in round two, leading to Smith's retirement.

Finish in round 2 predicted
"I'm gonna go Ryan span at some point catches him in this fight and puts him away maybe round two"
LOSS vs Johnny Walker
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Johnny Walker 0 38 of 92 41% 41 of 95 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:22
Anthony Smith 0 92 of 192 47% 99 of 204 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Johnny Walker 0 10 of 22 45% 12 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:22
Anthony Smith 0 28 of 58 48% 28 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
2 Johnny Walker 0 18 of 34 52% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 31 of 59 52% 31 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Johnny Walker 0 10 of 36 27% 11 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 33 of 75 44% 40 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Johnny Walker 38 of 92 41% 19 of 64 10 of 17 9 of 11 38 of 91 0 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 92 of 192 47% 32 of 117 9 of 19 51 of 56 81 of 178 6 of 8 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Johnny Walker 10 of 22 45% 8 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 28 of 58 48% 16 of 40 3 of 7 9 of 11 19 of 48 6 of 7 3 of 3
2 Johnny Walker 18 of 34 52% 8 of 24 2 of 2 8 of 8 18 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 31 of 59 52% 7 of 32 4 of 7 20 of 20 31 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Johnny Walker 10 of 36 27% 3 of 21 6 of 12 1 of 3 10 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 33 of 75 44% 9 of 45 2 of 5 22 of 25 31 of 71 0 of 1 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Angelo picks Johnny Walker, citing his size, speed, power, and unorthodox striking. He thinks Walker is the more dangerous fighter and notes Anthony Smith may be focused on his post-fight career. He mentions Walker has only shot two takedowns in the UFC but got both, and could use that to surprise Smith. He expects the fight to go to the second round and likes the over 1.5 rounds if available.

Over 1.5 rounds if line available
"the pick's gonna be Johnny here because while he may not be the better Striker technique-wise I think he's definitely the more dangerous guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Big Brady sees this as a true pick'em fight, calling both fighters untrustworthy. He expects a striking fight, as Walker's takedown defense is good enough to keep it standing. Brady gives Walker the power advantage and believes he can land a big knockout shot, but worries about Walker's chin. He picks Walker to knock out Smith in the first round, but calls it his least confident pick on the card.

first round knockout
"I'm gonna take Johnny Walker to land that big shot land that big knockout shot and knock out Anthony Smith in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Cody picks Anthony Smith but is hesitant due to Smith's age and 50+ pro fights. He notes Smith's superior wrestling and jiu-jitsu, and his ability to survive early storms and finish late. However, he worries about Smith's leg injury and layoff, and acknowledges Walker's explosiveness and power. He sees Smith's jab and ring IQ as key advantages.

"I think I'm just gonna officially go with Anthony Smith see what I can see at Wayne's and just hope that he's fully healthy and ready to go because again him and his best better wrestling than Johnny Walker better …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Connor picks Anthony Smith despite reservations, mainly because he dislikes Johnny Walker's move to SBG Ireland and feels it's a bad idea. He acknowledges Smith's vulnerability to larger fighters but thinks Smith's technical consistency and ability to take advantage of Walker's self-destructive tendencies could win. He notes the line is dead even and admits he might be wrong.

"I will stick with Anthony Smith just because Johnny Walker at SBG Ireland just feels like the worst idea I've ever heard in my entire life."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Daniel Levi picks Johnny Walker despite concerns about Walker's chin and durability. He believes Walker will be winning the fight until he either gets his arm raised or gets caught, as Smith's style relies on comebacks and opportunistic finishes. Levi notes that Smith is a veteran with many finishes but does not see Smith dominating the fight; instead, he expects Walker to be ahead on the scorecards or land a knockout. He acknowledges the risk due to Walker's history of being knocked out and his tall man defense, but ultimately favors Walker's athleticism and recent focus.

"my pick is Johnny Walker you know um obviously you can't have too much confidence because you know the issues with his chin"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Smith is back at Factory X with Mark Montoya, motivated after a loss. His durability allows him to roll with Walker's shots, and he can pressure, land combinations, and counter Walker's wild striking. Smith can open up a finish via knockout or submission. Walker's durability issues and tentative moments may be exploited. Smith's experience and re-alignment with his camp are key.

"I think Smith can eventually clip him here and that might Open up The Knockout or even though the club didn't solve opportunity"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Paul slightly favors Anthony Smith, calling it a fair pick'em. He notes both fighters can crack and Walker is more likely to finish early, but if Smith can secure takedowns and hang around, he can capitalize. He acknowledges the volatility and question marks on both sides, but edges toward Smith due to his well-rounded game.

"I think a pickum is probably pretty fair like it's a fight with a lot of volunteer volatility a lot of question marks that you brought up on both sides but all side ever so slightly with Anthony Smith as …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker, citing his athleticism and reach advantage. He notes that Anthony Smith has looked hesitant and stiff on the feet recently, and his body appears less toned, suggesting decline. He believes Walker's momentum and finishing potential will be too much for Smith, predicting a TKO in the first round.

TKO in the first round
"I'm gonna go with Johnny Walker over Anthony Smith... I think he'll get this one done by TKO in the first round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Zane leans Johnny Walker based on a 'vibe pick,' feeling that Anthony Smith will be uncomfortable fighting someone as huge as Walker. He notes that Smith tends to gas and fold when things go wrong, and Walker's size and reach (6 inches longer) could bully Smith. He acknowledges Smith's technical striking but thinks Walker's athleticism and size will cause Smith to freak out.

"I'm kind of leaning Johnny Walker here. I don't even see like a super clear path to victory. I just think Smith is going to freak out."
TKO (punches) R2 3:09 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 0 46 of 79 58% 64 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:26
Anthony Smith 0 18 of 36 50% 21 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 0 20 of 41 48% 23 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Anthony Smith 0 13 of 23 56% 16 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Magomed Ankalaev 0 26 of 38 68% 41 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:51
Anthony Smith 0 5 of 13 38% 5 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 46 of 79 58% 31 of 60 6 of 9 9 of 10 23 of 46 1 of 1 22 of 32
Anthony Smith 18 of 36 50% 6 of 21 5 of 8 7 of 7 17 of 35 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 20 of 41 48% 9 of 26 3 of 6 8 of 9 19 of 40 0 of 0 1 of 1
Anthony Smith 13 of 23 56% 3 of 11 4 of 6 6 of 6 12 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Magomed Ankalaev 26 of 38 68% 22 of 34 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 6 1 of 1 21 of 31
Anthony Smith 5 of 13 38% 3 of 10 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision. He acknowledges Ankalaev's low volume but praises his power and defensive soundness. He doubts Smith can take Ankalaev down and notes Smith is hittable. He expects Ankalaev to win comfortably but not look like a -600 favorite unless he finishes early.

"i like anka live here to win i like him to win by i'll say decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev but expresses concern about his ring IQ and tendency to make fights harder than necessary. He notes that Ankalaev has a history of not using his wrestling enough, standing with opponents and getting clipped. He thinks if Ankalaev sticks to takedowns, he wins easily, but he's not sure he will. He calls it a potential lock but worries about Ankalaev's decision-making. He also notes that Smith is crafty and has good cardio.

"i want to say this is my lock of the card... but like i don't know if it is man like i'm gonna play it i'll take it collide but like i think this is greasier than it needs to …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel picks Ankalaev to win, but notes the fight depends on Smith's approach. If Smith is content to survive, it will be a boring decision for Ankalaev. If Smith pushes the pace, it could be exciting with a finish on either side. He acknowledges Ankalaev's counter-striking style and power, but says Smith needs to take risks to win. He expects Ankalaev to piece Smith apart over three rounds if Smith doesn't engage.

"I'm gonna pick Ankalaev to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

Preet picks Ankalaev by decision and likes the over 2.5 rounds, expecting Ankalaev to slow the fight with clinch and takedowns, grinding out Smith. He notes Ankalaev's ability to make adjustments, as seen against Krylov, and that Smith's pressure could make it exciting but ultimately Ankalaev's discipline wins. He avoids the moneyline at -560.

over 2.5 rounds
"give me uncle live on collab by decision over two and a half is probably the bet i would go with"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev, noting that he is the best guy at 205 pounds and has an easy path to victory by taking Smith down repeatedly. He acknowledges that Ankalaev sometimes makes fights harder by standing, but he expects him to win. He mentions that Smith's takedown defense has always been an issue and that Ankalaev should stick to the game plan. He also notes that the -600 price is wide but that's the price you have to pay.

"i think he wins probably 30 27 maybe he gets him out of there but like it's angle eye is a tough nut to crack"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

The MMA Guru predicts Magomed Ankalaev wins by 29-28 or 30-27 decision. He expects a lackluster fight where Smith may win the first round but then shells up as Ankalaev chops the legs, lands ground-and-pound, and controls the later rounds. The Guru notes Ankalaev's patience and Smith's inability to create offense.

decision
"i think magamet anglia is going to win the fight as it goes on"
Vitor Petrino - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 92 of 161 57% 92 of 162 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:17
Steven Asplund 1 61 of 158 38% 73 of 172 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 19 of 37 51% 19 of 38 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:23
Steven Asplund 1 20 of 45 44% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
2 Vitor Petrino 0 34 of 52 65% 34 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
Steven Asplund 0 14 of 50 28% 14 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Vitor Petrino 0 39 of 72 54% 39 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steven Asplund 0 27 of 63 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 92 of 161 57% 59 of 126 18 of 18 15 of 17 92 of 160 0 of 1 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 61 of 158 38% 48 of 140 4 of 8 9 of 10 58 of 154 1 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 19 of 37 51% 14 of 32 2 of 2 3 of 3 19 of 36 0 of 1 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 20 of 45 44% 14 of 39 3 of 3 3 of 3 17 of 41 1 of 2 2 of 2
2 Vitor Petrino 34 of 52 65% 25 of 42 3 of 3 6 of 7 34 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 14 of 50 28% 12 of 45 1 of 3 1 of 2 14 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 39 of 72 54% 20 of 52 13 of 13 6 of 7 39 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 27 of 63 42% 22 of 56 0 of 2 5 of 5 27 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Steven Asplund

Angelo picks Steven Asplund despite being an underdog. He criticizes Vitor Petrino's lack of killer instinct and fight IQ, and believes Asplund's incredible cardio, durability, and forward pressure will break Petrino. He notes that Petrino is more athletic and technical, but Asplund's willpower and toughness will be the difference. He is not betting on it due to heavyweight unpredictability.

"I'm going to pick Stephen Aspun here. ... I gotta go with the guy who changed his life through hard work and determination."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by first-round submission. He is a fan of Asplund but worries about his takedown defense, citing the Don'Tale Mayes fight where he was dominated. He believes Petrino's wrestling and strength will be too much, and if Asplund hasn't improved his grappling, Petrino will finish him quickly.

"give me Vita Petrino to win this fight and win it by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Steven Asplund

Cody picks Asplund as a dog, citing Petrino's poor cardio, questionable chin, and broken hand. He notes Asplund's volume and durability, and thinks he can outwork Petrino and potentially finish him late.

"I got I got Ask one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino, agreeing that being at heavyweight has emboldened him to be the powerful guy he was at light heavyweight. He notes that the speed of opponents at light heavyweight may have freaked him out, but now he feels like a god against slower heavyweights.

Odds: Petrino opened at -250, currently -260; Asplund opened at +210, currently +220.
"I'll take Patrino to. He may not feel like the dad energy, but he's got the power and being at heavyweight does seem to have emboldened him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

James picks Vitor Petrino to win by submission, highlighting his black belt in BJJ and Asplund's only loss coming by submission. He notes Petrino's grappling advantage and Asplund's tendency to give up his neck. He mentions a possible hand injury for Petrino but still expects a submission win.

"I'm going to pick VTO Petrino via submission as my official prediction in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The host picks Petrino to win by submission, citing his power and grappling advantage. He expects Petrino to take Asplund down and find a finish, noting that Asplund's lack of athleticism and strength will be exploited. He acknowledges Asplund's cardio could be a factor in deeper waters, but believes Petrino's early power will be decisive.

Petrino by submission
"I like Patrino here. I don't mind him at chalk. I'll be curious to see what the submission prop sits at... I like Patrino here and I'm going to take him to win this fight by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul leans Petrino but is not confident. He notes Petrino's grappling and power, but acknowledges his cardio issues and the broken hand narrative. He thinks Petrino can get takedowns and control, but it's risky.

"I think his takedown defense is there to get exploited and I expect Patrino as long as he doesn't get his head knocked off in the first few exchanges."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

The Guru picks Vitor Petrino, despite liking Asplund's style. He thinks Petrino's grappling will be the difference, as Asplund may struggle to escape bottom position. He predicts a submission win, possibly an arm triangle or rear naked choke, noting Petrino's success in his debut.

Prediction: submission win (arm triangle or rear naked choke)
"I'm going to go with Vitor Petrino... I think he'll get a submission win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane picks Petrino, noting that the heavyweight move seems to be working for him and he is an athletic lightyear ahead of Asplund. He describes Asplund as a volume striker who gets hammered and has already lost to Denzel Freeman regionally.

Odds: Petrino opened at -250, currently -260; Asplund opened at +210, currently +220.
"I'm going to pick Patrino because the heavyweight move seems like it's working for him so far and he is an athletic lightyear ahead of Steve Asplund."
KO R3 0:26 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 2 31 of 54 57% 33 of 61 1 of 6 16% 0 0 3:03
Thomas Petersen 0 16 of 35 45% 41 of 62 0 of 8 0% 0 0 2:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 1 13 of 20 65% 15 of 27 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:42
Thomas Petersen 0 1 of 5 20% 22 of 27 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:58
2 Vitor Petrino 0 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:20
Thomas Petersen 0 13 of 28 46% 17 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:08
3 Vitor Petrino 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Thomas Petersen 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 31 of 54 57% 25 of 46 5 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 29 9 of 12 9 of 13
Thomas Petersen 16 of 35 45% 7 of 25 9 of 10 0 of 0 13 of 29 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 13 of 20 65% 13 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 3 of 4 7 of 10
Thomas Petersen 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 14 of 28 50% 8 of 21 5 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 19 6 of 8 0 of 1
Thomas Petersen 13 of 28 46% 7 of 21 6 of 7 0 of 0 11 of 24 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
Thomas Petersen 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, believing he is better everywhere except for pure grit. He thinks Vitor can find a finish, but acknowledges the risk of Thomas Petersen grinding out a win if he gets top position. He is undecided on betting due to Vitor's lack of true heavyweight size and the possibility of being controlled on the ground.

"I do think Vitor is better everywhere except just pure American grit and toughness. I think he gets Thomas Petersen out of there."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by second-round knockout. He notes Petrino has filled out at heavyweight and put on muscle, and believes he will win because many heavyweights are not great. He thinks Petersen is more skilled than shown but won't outwrestle or outstrike Petrino. Brady leans toward a knockout, saying Petrino will touch Petersen's chin.

knockout
"I'm leaning knockout for VTO Petrino. I'll say he does touch the chin of Thomas Peterson. We'll say second round knockout for Vtorrino here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Cody picks Petersen as well, noting Petrino's history of underperforming as a favorite. He highlights Petrino's low volume and poor wrestling, while Petersen is a better wrestler and throws more volume. He expects a close fight but sees value in the underdog.

"I'm going Pison as well, but because it's in Brazil and I know Thomas Patterson really isn't a world beater by any stretch, it likely is the PRP pick this week all the way at the bottom."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Lucrative James picks Vitor Petrino by KO, but is not confident due to Petrino's chin issues and the -310 price. He notes Petrino's power advantage and Petersen's poor striking defense. He acknowledges Petersen's wrestling and cardio could grind out a decision, but sees a knockout as most likely. He mentions he might bet against his pick with a Petersen decision longshot.

Vitor Petrino by KO (+140), Thomas Petersen by decision (+600)
"I'm going to pick VTO Petrino via KO, but I don't love the pick and I'm definitely not in love with the price tag at minus 310."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Manpreet picks Petersen as an underdog, believing that if Petersen can avoid Petrino's early knockout power, his wrestling and cardio will take over. He notes Petersen's dominant performance against Mayes and expects him to wear Petrino down, potentially finishing in round three. He loves the plus 260 line and also considers the round three prop.

Petersen round three TKO (+1500); Petersen by decision (+550)
"I'd rather lean on that prop rather than taking the money line on Petrino, but at the end of the day, I'm going to lean Peterson here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Paul picks Petersen as a dog, citing Petrino's poor wrestling and low volume. He notes Petersen's wrestling credentials and durability, and believes he can outwork Petrino. He calls it a 'dog or pass' fight.

"For me, it's Dogger Pass. Thomas Peterson, where are you at with this fight?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino over Thomas Petersen, citing Petrino's size, power, and grappling skills. He notes Petersen is out of shape and Petrino showed good jiu-jitsu in his last fight. He predicts a TKO finish in the first round.

TKO in round 1
"I'm going to go with Vtor Patino. TKO finish in the first round over Thomas Peterson."
WIN vs Austen Lane
Submission R1 4:16 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 3 of 6 50% 17 of 22 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:03
Austen Lane 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 3 of 6 50% 17 of 22 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:03
Austen Lane 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 3 of 6 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4
Austen Lane 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 3 of 6 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4
Austen Lane 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino despite moving up to heavyweight, citing Austen Lane's lack of chin and reliance on grappling. He thinks Petrino's physicality and athleticism will be enough to win, but he despises the -700 odds. He notes Petrino was winning his last fight before getting knocked out, and Lane is chinny.

Despises -700 odds.
"Vtor Patino is going to be the pick. I absolutely despise these minus 700 odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady is confident in Vitor Petrino, noting that Austen Lane has been brutally knocked out multiple times and is 37 with a history of concussions. He believes Petrino will knock out Lane in hilarious fashion. He expresses concern for Lane's health and hopes this is his last fight.

first round knockout
"Give me Vito Petrino by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino easily, calling Austen Lane a person who should not be fighting—he closes his eyes when striking and gets hurt badly every time he trades. He notes that Petrino is moving up to heavyweight but is still a competent wrestler, unlike Robles de Spain who Lane beat. Connor believes this fight says nothing about Petrino's prospects but is a clear win.

"You got to pick Patrino. ... Austin Lane is just, yeah, you said he's the guy who closes his eyes when he has to strike."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The host expects Petrino's power to translate to heavyweight and that he will eventually clip Lane and put him away. However, he advises against betting Petrino at -700, indicating the odds are too steep. The pick is based on Petrino's power and Lane's recent knockout losses.

would not bet at -700
"Petrino going up away class now to the heavyweight division. And we'll see in this fight if his power will translate, especially with Lane being knocked out and a few of his last losses. I think Patrino can eventually clip …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing Austen Lane's history of being knocked out (by Greg Hardy, Junior Tafa, Mario Pinto) and his poor striking defense with hands down. He expects Petrino's check hook to catch Lane as he darts in, leading to a first-round TKO. He also notes Petrino's decent scrambles on the ground, unlike Lane's vulnerability.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Vtor Patino getting this one done by early TKO over Austin Lane KO in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane agrees, calling Lane a 'fundamentally not a fighter' who takes severe damage. He notes that Petrino, despite his flaws, is a competent wrestler and athlete who should handle Lane easily. Zane criticizes the UFC for keeping Lane, comparing it to the Connor Matthews situation.

"Austin Lane is fundamentally a person that should not be doing this. ... So you got to pick Patrino."
LOSS vs Dustin Jacoby
KO (punch) R3 3:44 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Jacoby 0 40 of 96 41% 40 of 96 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:40
Vitor Petrino 1 45 of 96 46% 47 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Jacoby 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Vitor Petrino 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Dustin Jacoby 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 18 of 36 50% 18 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Dustin Jacoby 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:38
Vitor Petrino 1 15 of 28 53% 17 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Jacoby 40 of 96 41% 27 of 79 6 of 7 7 of 10 40 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 45 of 96 46% 23 of 69 7 of 9 15 of 18 39 of 87 5 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Jacoby 10 of 26 38% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 12 of 32 37% 5 of 22 1 of 2 6 of 8 8 of 25 4 of 7 0 of 0
2 Dustin Jacoby 19 of 47 40% 16 of 42 2 of 3 1 of 2 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 18 of 36 50% 8 of 24 3 of 4 7 of 8 18 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dustin Jacoby 11 of 23 47% 6 of 18 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 15 of 28 53% 10 of 23 3 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino because he hits hard and Jacoby's chin is declining. He notes Petrino's power, evolving grappling, and takedowns, while Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer with okay power and 60% takedown defense. He expresses concern about Petrino's smiling reaction after his submission loss to Anthony Smith, but believes it was a fluke. He thinks Jacoby could turn it into a dogfight but Petrino's power is the difference.

"I am going to pick patrino here because he hits so damn hard and Dustin's chin doesn't seem to be what it once was."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by decision. He thinks Petrino is younger, improving, and has more ways to win, including power and takedowns. He notes Jacoby has been dropped often and was recently knocked out by Reyes. He expects Petrino to mix in takedowns and land big shots, but not finish.

"I'll say patrino mixes in the takedowns maybe land some big shots here and there maybe drops jacobe because jacobe likes getting dropped but I'll say patrino does enough to win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Vitor Petrino but with low confidence, noting his poor gas tank and green technique. He believes Petrino will rely on takedowns and top control to win rounds, but Jacoby's striking advantage could be problematic. Cody suggests a live bet on Jacoby after the first round if Petrino tires.

Over 1.5 rounds (-167), fight goes to decision (+170)
"I'm willing to take the dog shot on Covington and Bruno Silva but I'm going to pass on this jacobe one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Connor picks Jacoby as well, agreeing that Petrino's new style is ineffective. He notes that Petrino's game is 'empty' and that Jacoby is a good outboxer who can take advantage. However, Connor also worries about Jacoby's durability, citing his knockout loss to Reyes and shaky moments against Alonzo Menifield.

Jacoby opened at +212, now +254; Petrino opened at -247, now -303
"I'm picking Jacobi as well, but, uh, odd that the odds are against him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland picks Vitor Petrino to get back on track after his loss to Anthony Smith. He acknowledges Dustin Jacoby's technical kickboxing but worries about Jacoby's durability and tendency to get hurt. Vreeland believes Petrino's freak athleticism and power can change the fight with one shot, even if he's being outpointed. He also notes Petrino can mix in takedowns if needed.

"I'm going go with vtor patrino to come out here and uh get back on track"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Lucrative James picks Vitor Petrino to win, citing Petrino's multiple paths to victory including knockout and grappling. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing background and takedown defense, but believes Petrino's physicality and raw power will be too much. He expresses low interest in betting the fight unless prop odds are wide, but confidently predicts Petrino as the winner.

"I do think berrino wins I do think he's the better fighter I think that he's got way more ways to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino will crash the pocket effectively and land big shots on Jacoby, who struggles against opponents with big power. The finish is expected within the first two rounds.

wins in round 1 or 2
"I do believe patrino will be able to crash the pocket effectively here and that will allow him to land those big shots on jacobe who just can't seem to get out of the way of opponents with big Power …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Paul picks Dustin Jacoby as an underdog, citing Petrino's struggles against strikers and Jacoby's striking volume. He notes that Petrino's takedowns are his only path, but Jacoby's takedown defense and ability to get back up could neutralize that. Paul is surprised Petrino is such a big favorite.

"I'm surprised that he's such a big favorite like um there does seem to be some action coming in on the jacobe side."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Jacoby as an underdog, questioning why he is such a big underdog. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing experience and ability to invest in strikes, though he acknowledges Jacoby's chin has let him down. He believes Petrino's win over Smith was unimpressive (guillotine) and that Jacoby's layers and conditioning will give him an edge. He admits the oddsmakers might know something he doesn't.

underdog bet (implied odds comment)
"I'm going to go Dustin jacobe in his kickboxing experience being able to invest enough and do enough to patrino"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Zane picks Jacoby because Petrino has abandoned his effective bullying style for a technical out-fighting game that doesn't work. He notes that Petrino's recent losses to Anthony Smith and Tyson Pedro show he has no plan, and Jacoby should have plenty of time and space to outbox him. However, Zane is concerned about Jacoby's chin and age.

Jacoby opened at +212, now +254; Petrino opened at -247, now -303; Zane says the odds are 'too wide on Petrino'
"I'm still picking him against Vito Petrino, because Petrino's game as it stands right now is just empty."
LOSS vs Anthony Smith
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 11 of 20 55% 7 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 5 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 10 of 22 45% 4 of 14 4 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 11 of 20 55% 7 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 5 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 10 of 22 45% 4 of 14 4 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino due to youth, size, and strength, despite Smith being the better technical fighter. He notes Smith has taken too much damage and is past his prime, while Petrino is evolving. He calls it a 'changing of the guard' fight.

"vtor patrino is going to be the pick but this is a perfect evolutionary step up in competition for Vitor patrino"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady favors Petrino's youth and momentum, noting his ability to win by knockout or decision. He thinks Smith is past his prime and has taken too much damage. He predicts Petrino wins by grinding decision, possibly taking Smith down.

"I'm gonna say Petrino by like a grinding based decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Petrino, citing his physical strength, takedown ability, and power. He notes Smith's durability is questionable after the Krylov loss. However, Cody won't bet at -600 due to lack of value.

"I think he wins... but at minus 600 it's hard to say there's really any meat on the bone here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland picks Petrino, noting his physicality, wrestling, and youth advantage over the aging Smith. He highlights Petrino's takedowns in every UFC fight and his ability to push a high pace. He warns that Smith could capitalize on a mistake with a submission, but believes Petrino is the much better wrestler and more likely to win minutes. He does not lay the -600 price but is confident in Petrino's victory.

"it should be VOR all day here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Vitor Petrino. He also notes the risk due to Petrino's cardio and Smith's submission threat. Vreeland says he is staying away from betting the -500 line because Anthony Smith has screwed bettors over before when written off. He acknowledges Smith's grappling skills but thinks Petrino will knock him out if he fights smart.

"I'm staying away from betting the minus 500 line because Anthony Smith has has screwed us over in the past"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Jeff Fox picks Vitor Petrino but is wary of betting the -500 line. He believes Petrino will knock out Anthony Smith if he keeps his distance and throws bombs, as Smith has no chin left. However, Fox notes that Petrino got tired in his last fight, and Smith still has great jiu-jitsu. If Petrino grapples and tires himself out, he could get submitted. Fox calls it an IQ test for Petrino and says he is staying away from parlays involving this fight due to the risk.

"obviously patrino is to pick here uh as long as he doesn't attack Smith's family I think he's gonna knock him out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino is 11-0 and has developed in every aspect of his MMA game. He came in as a power puncher but now implements a grapple-heavy approach. He will put big punches on Smith, take him down, and grind him out over 15 minutes, showing that Smith is over the hill.

"give me patrino and patrino by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul picks Petrino but with hesitation, noting Petrino is still green, makes mistakes, and hasn't faced high-level competition. He thinks Smith is washed but could be competitive. Paul sees Petrino as a fade candidate at this price but expects him to win.

"I'm almost thinking that Vitor Petrino is that guy because he's suspect to me..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing his physicality, takedown defense, and knockout power. He believes Anthony Smith struggles against athletic, powerful opponents and often shells up under pressure. He notes Petrino's composed striking and low kicks, and expects him to exploit Smith's weaknesses, possibly finishing him.

"I'm going to go with uh Vito patrino put him putting him away"
WIN vs Tyson Pedro
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 27 of 75 36% 33 of 82 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:24
Tyson Pedro 0 30 of 60 50% 33 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 28 35% 10 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyson Pedro 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:16
Tyson Pedro 0 14 of 22 63% 14 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Vitor Petrino 0 7 of 17 41% 13 of 24 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:08
Tyson Pedro 0 5 of 14 35% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 27 of 75 36% 16 of 59 4 of 8 7 of 8 25 of 72 0 of 0 2 of 3
Tyson Pedro 30 of 60 50% 3 of 29 11 of 15 16 of 16 29 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 10 of 28 35% 5 of 20 2 of 4 3 of 4 10 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 11 of 24 45% 0 of 13 4 of 4 7 of 7 11 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 10 of 30 33% 6 of 24 1 of 3 3 of 3 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 14 of 22 63% 1 of 6 5 of 8 8 of 8 13 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 7 of 17 41% 5 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 3
Tyson Pedro 5 of 14 35% 2 of 10 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, calling it a fraud check fight but believing Petrino passes. He notes Petrino's power, athleticism, and wrestling, though he can be sloppy. He thinks Petrino's advantages in power and speed should be enough to win.

"vtor patrino is going to be the pick because of everything I mentioned he hits harder he's more athletic he's faster"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Petrino due to Pedro's poor cardio and 0-3 record in fights that reach the second round. He notes Petrino has excellent cardio, a good chin, and can mix in takedowns, while Pedro is a first-round bust with all 10 wins coming in the first round. He expects Petrino to survive an early storm and finish Pedro late second or third round by TKO.

"I gotta go patrino here just due to the fact that anytime Tyson Pedro reaches the second round he just has nothing left"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody also picks Petrino, citing his superior wrestling and ground game as the key. He notes Pedro's takedown defense is poor (52%) and he's faced almost no wrestlers. Cody believes Petrino can strike with Pedro but also take him down and smother him. He acknowledges Petrino's cardio could be a concern but thinks Pedro's cardio is equally poor, evening things out.

"the key here though Paul sha is the ground game yeah 100%... petrino's got an ability to go out there and get the takedowns once he does get you to the ground he's got smothering top control"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino is an undefeated prospect with great punching power and improving grappling. He has excellent awareness to avoid bad positions and can explode out of them. Pedro has slick submissions but Petrino's takedown defense and ability to reverse positions should nullify that. Petrino will dictate where the fight takes place and land the bigger, better strikes. The host expects a finish, likely by knockout in the second round.

Petrino by knockout, round 2
"I think patrino wins this fight pretty much anywhere it goes and I think that this is the fight that we'll see him actually go out there and get another finish likely probably by by the second round as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul likes Petrino's development and well-rounded skills, noting his solid striking, takedowns, and improving cardio. He believes Petrino will take over if Pedro doesn't catch him early, and that Petrino has a big advantage in the later rounds. He mentions Petrino's chin has been tested but he's only 26 and learning on the job.

"Patrina is the pick for me... I like what I see from Vitor patrino... he's proven to me that he's going to have a big Advantage if he gets out of the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Petrino, noting his KO of Modestas Bukauskas while Pedro lost to Bukauskas on short notice. He expects a close first round but Petrino to take over in the second, muscling forward for a TKO. He mentions if it goes past round one, he leans Petrino and suggests checking odds after round one.

TKO win in round 2
"I'm going to say in round two towards the end of it we see Pedro start to slow down and Petrino start to muscle his way forward and get a TKO win in round two"
KO (punch) R2 1:03 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 1 8 of 26 30% 14 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:19
Modestas Bukauskas 0 9 of 19 47% 12 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 6 of 21 28% 12 of 29 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Modestas Bukauskas 0 5 of 12 41% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vitor Petrino 1 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Modestas Bukauskas 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 8 of 26 30% 6 of 23 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 5
Modestas Bukauskas 9 of 19 47% 5 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 5 9 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 6 of 21 28% 4 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 5
Modestas Bukauskas 5 of 12 41% 1 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Modestas Bukauskas 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Vitor Petrino
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Petrino (-218), Bukauskas (+180)

Round 1
The second of three undefeated Brazilians on the card takes center stage next, as Petrino (9-0, 2-0 UFC) aims to pick up his 10th win as a pro at the expense of Bukauskas (15-5, 3-3 UFC). Fists and feet are sure to fly shortly between these two light heavyweights, but before they do, referee Marc Goddard has to clock them in. A brief tap of the gloves leads to a faked kick from Bukauskas, who looks for his range and manages to plant his shin on Petrino’s calf early. Bukauskas fires off a head kick to follow, and Petrino’s guard is up well in time to defend. Bukauskas comes up short with another high kick, and he parries a jab and whiffs with a low kick. Bukauskas protects his face from an oncoming head kick, and he pokes at the lead calf. Petrino paws out a jab and absorbs a thumping calf kick, and he tosses another high kick that does not find its target. Jabs are attempted from both sides, and Bukauskas reaches out with a left hook and blocks a kick aimed at his temple. Petrino doubles up on a jab and fires off a left hook that grazes the hair, and they reset with a jab from both men. Petrino sneaks in a jab, and he takes a calf kick and attempts a takedown. When he trips Bukauskas up, the Brazilian elects to lift Bukauskas in the air and slam him down with a powerbomb seen in the professional wrestling circuits. When Bukauskas looks to scramble, Petrino continues maintaining top position while shifting into half guard. Bukauskas defends himself from any ground-and-pound by hanging onto Petrino’s forearms, and the subsequent inactivity prompts Goddard to issue a warning. Petrino scores a pair of punches, and Bukauskas bucks off and starts striking back. A few more short punches from Petrino end the low-paced frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Petrino

Round 2
The light heavyweights touch gloves, and Goddard steps in 15 seconds into the round to command that Bukauskas get his mouthpiece replaced, and that the commission get it together. When they resume after the awkward pause, both men go for big strikes, and they partially connect.
Bukauskas looks to settle down with a jab, and as soon as he sits down on it, Petrino slides to the side and uncorks a short but lethal left hook that completely flatlines Bukauskas. The back of Bukauskas’ head clatters off the floor as his eyes roll back, and an attentive Goddard leaps in before Petrino can clobber him with any additional strikes.
Bukauskas tries to get back to his feet and motion that he was just flash knocked down, but he needs help standing up as commission and medical officials rush to his aid. This is a massive victory for the still-undefeated Petrino, who has performed finishes in eight of his 10 pro wins to date.

The Official Result
Vitor Petrino def. Modestas Bukauskas R2 1:03 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino but is not super confident. He notes Petrino is dangerous with power and athleticism, but can be sloppy and dropped. Bukauskas is a good striker with decent takedown defense. Angelo thinks Petrino's relentless aggression will win him the fight, but he leaves Petrino out of parlays because Bukauskas could play spoiler at plus money.

Bukauskas is a great underdog at +250, Petrino left out of parlays
"I am confident not super confident but I do think vtor wins this fight because cuz we have this guy's a dog he doesn't care he'll get dropped he'll keep coming"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by knockout in the second round. He criticizes Bukauskas as a boring point fighter and praises Petrino's evolving skillset, including takedowns and cardio. He believes Petrino can win by any method but prefers the knockout. He notes Petrino's physical strength and ability to go 15 minutes.

"I'll say knocks out psk just because I I would love that for that to happen um so I'll say knockout for patrino and I'll say it happens in the second round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Levi picks Vitor Petrino, describing him as a physical freak with one-punch knockout power, strong wrestling, and submission skills. He notes that Petrino is still evolving and should be able to steamroll Bukauskas. Levi points out Bukauskas' poor striking defense, with his chin often in the air, and his history of being knocked out. He sees Bukauskas as a low-volume kickboxer who can be overwhelmed. Levi expects Petrino to finish the fight, possibly in the second round.

Petrino wins by KO/TKO, Petrino wins in round 2
"I think he steamrolls Bukauskas... I'm leaning towards him steamrolling Bukauskas to be quite frank with you."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

James is quite confident in Petrino, stating he has all the upside in every aspect of the fight: knockout, submission, and decision. He believes Petrino deserves to be a big favorite and that Bukauskas' only path to victory is if Petrino gasses or if it becomes a low-volume point striking affair, which he does not see happening. He does not specify a method of victory but is confident Petrino gets the win.

"I like patrino here I think he has all the upside in every different aspect of the fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino has shown a solid gas tank for light heavyweight and is working on his jiu-jitsu, as seen in his last fight. He has speed, power, and explosiveness that will trouble Bukauskas. Petrino can either knock him out or use his grappling advantage to take him down and grind him out. The -200 range is a good spot to jump in.

surprised he's only around -200; thinks that's a damn good spot
"I like Petrino a lot in this spot and I'm kind of surprised that he's only around that minus 200 range... I think that's a damn good spot to jump in on him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas as an underdog over Vitor Petrino. He highlights Bukauskas' experience and reach advantage, and notes his impressive performance against Tyson Pedro on short notice. The Guru believes Bukauskas is underrated and that Petrino may struggle with the reach and stand-up. He also mentions Bukauskas was arguably robbed against Marcin Prachnio. The Guru likes Bukauskas' odds.

underdog odds
"I'm going with another Underdog here I'm going with mestas bowkus over VOR patrino... I like his odds there"
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:42 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 44 of 81 54% 72 of 111 4 of 6 66% 2 0 8:39
Marcin Prachnio 0 55 of 88 62% 147 of 185 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 16 of 33 48% 20 of 37 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:21
Marcin Prachnio 0 32 of 44 72% 66 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Vitor Petrino 0 11 of 15 73% 30 of 35 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:38
Marcin Prachnio 0 2 of 5 40% 56 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Vitor Petrino 0 17 of 33 51% 22 of 39 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:40
Marcin Prachnio 0 21 of 39 53% 25 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 44 of 81 54% 32 of 68 9 of 10 3 of 3 24 of 58 1 of 1 19 of 22
Marcin Prachnio 55 of 88 62% 25 of 54 21 of 25 9 of 9 41 of 73 14 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 16 of 33 48% 9 of 26 6 of 6 1 of 1 11 of 25 1 of 1 4 of 7
Marcin Prachnio 32 of 44 72% 12 of 23 14 of 15 6 of 6 21 of 32 11 of 12 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 11 of 15 73% 10 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 11
Marcin Prachnio 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 17 of 33 51% 13 of 28 2 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 29 0 of 0 4 of 4
Marcin Prachnio 21 of 39 53% 12 of 27 6 of 9 3 of 3 18 of 36 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino but warns against including him in parlays, citing the recent trend of undefeated prospects losing. He notes Petrino's power and offensive wrestling but poor takedown defense. Prachnio has veteran savvy and power, but his chin is questionable. He sees Petrino having multiple ways to win but lacks confidence.

No bets yet, waiting for props
"Vitor Petrino is the pick no bets yet but we'll see when these props drop"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by first-round knockout. He was impressed by Petrino's wrestling in his last fight, taking down Anton Turkalj seven times. He notes that Prachnio has been knocked out by lesser strikers and has poor durability. He believes Petrino can knock him out on the feet or take him down and finish him. He mentions that Prachnio's path to victory is leg kicks and running away, but he doesn't think the fight goes to decision.

first round knockout
"I'll say he knocks him out on the very first round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Petrino, citing his power and youth. He notes Prachnio has a questionable chin and has been knocked out early in the UFC. He thinks Petrino will crack him early. He says there's no value at -300 but Petrino should win.

Petrino by KO/TKO, under 1.5 rounds
"Petrino will be the pick but minus 300 there's really nothing there for me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino because he is too violent for Prachnio, who has become a safe fighter after being knocked out. Petrino's reckless pressure and durability will force Prachnio out of his comfort zone. However, Prachnio could win if he takes Petrino down or lands a switch kick, but Petrino's ability to keep coming makes him the pick.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I just think he's too violent for Prochnio."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Levi picks Petrino, citing his knockout power and aggressive style. He notes that Prachnio has a questionable chin, having been knocked out three times in the UFC. Levi acknowledges Petrino's cardio concerns due to his high-energy approach but believes he will expose Prachnio's chin early. He is not interested in betting at minus-300 but picks Petrino to win.

"I think Vitor is going to be the guy that goes back and exposes that chin of Marcin pratch."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

James believes Petrino has all the advantages: youth, power, physicality, durability, and strength. He thinks Prachnio may be the better technical mixed martial artist, but Petrino's raw attributes will overwhelm him. He predicts a first-round knockout, as he expects Petrino to land on Prachnio's chin and finish the fight.

Vitor Petrino wins by KO in round 1; Vitor Petrino inside the distance
"I think petrino's gonna Land one on pretnia's chin and I think it's going to be night night"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino has big knockout power and durability, and he can cut off the cage to prevent Prachnio from using his karate style. Prachnio is not a good enough grappler to hold Petrino down, and Petrino will eventually land a knockout, likely early in the fight.

round 1 knockout
"give me Vitor Petrino by knockout I actually think it comes pretty early as well let's call it round one."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul picks Petrino, noting his power and wrestling. He thinks Prachnio has only beaten low-level competition and will be overwhelmed. He mentions Petrino's cardio looked good in his last fight. He expects a finish or a clear decision.

Petrino by KO/TKO or decision
"I think Petrino mixes in those takedowns if he doesn't melt him with a big right hand"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino to win by KO, citing Prachnio's poor chin and lack of finishing potential. He notes Prachnio was KO'd by Sam Alvey and others, while Petrino is a physical freak with dangerous striking. He acknowledges Petrino's grappling issues but believes his finishing power is decisive.

wins by KO
"I'm gonna go with him getting this one done by KO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane picks Petrino because he is a bully and brawler who doesn't gas easily and has a great chin. Prachnio is a technical karate fighter who has become safe after being knocked out, and Petrino's relentless pressure and power should overwhelm him. However, Petrino is a mess and could be taken down or knocked out, but his violence is likely too much for Prachnio.

Petrino opened at -263, currently -278; Prachnio opened at +199, currently +238. Zane says odds should not get wider.
"I got to pick a guy like Patrino light heavyweight. It's just the right division for him for that kind of fight."
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino due to youth, size, and strength, despite Smith being the better technical fighter. He notes Smith has taken too much damage and is past his prime, while Petrino is evolving. He calls it a 'changing of the guard' fight.

"vtor patrino is going to be the pick but this is a perfect evolutionary step up in competition for Vitor patrino"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady favors Petrino's youth and momentum, noting his ability to win by knockout or decision. He thinks Smith is past his prime and has taken too much damage. He predicts Petrino wins by grinding decision, possibly taking Smith down.

"I'm gonna say Petrino by like a grinding based decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Petrino, citing his physical strength, takedown ability, and power. He notes Smith's durability is questionable after the Krylov loss. However, Cody won't bet at -600 due to lack of value.

"I think he wins... but at minus 600 it's hard to say there's really any meat on the bone here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Vitor Petrino. He also notes the risk due to Petrino's cardio and Smith's submission threat. Vreeland says he is staying away from betting the -500 line because Anthony Smith has screwed bettors over before when written off. He acknowledges Smith's grappling skills but thinks Petrino will knock him out if he fights smart.

"I'm staying away from betting the minus 500 line because Anthony Smith has has screwed us over in the past"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland picks Petrino, noting his physicality, wrestling, and youth advantage over the aging Smith. He highlights Petrino's takedowns in every UFC fight and his ability to push a high pace. He warns that Smith could capitalize on a mistake with a submission, but believes Petrino is the much better wrestler and more likely to win minutes. He does not lay the -600 price but is confident in Petrino's victory.

"it should be VOR all day here"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Jeff Fox picks Vitor Petrino but is wary of betting the -500 line. He believes Petrino will knock out Anthony Smith if he keeps his distance and throws bombs, as Smith has no chin left. However, Fox notes that Petrino got tired in his last fight, and Smith still has great jiu-jitsu. If Petrino grapples and tires himself out, he could get submitted. Fox calls it an IQ test for Petrino and says he is staying away from parlays involving this fight due to the risk.

"obviously patrino is to pick here uh as long as he doesn't attack Smith's family I think he's gonna knock him out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino is 11-0 and has developed in every aspect of his MMA game. He came in as a power puncher but now implements a grapple-heavy approach. He will put big punches on Smith, take him down, and grind him out over 15 minutes, showing that Smith is over the hill.

"give me patrino and patrino by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul picks Petrino but with hesitation, noting Petrino is still green, makes mistakes, and hasn't faced high-level competition. He thinks Smith is washed but could be competitive. Paul sees Petrino as a fade candidate at this price but expects him to win.

"I'm almost thinking that Vitor Petrino is that guy because he's suspect to me..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing his physicality, takedown defense, and knockout power. He believes Anthony Smith struggles against athletic, powerful opponents and often shells up under pressure. He notes Petrino's composed striking and low kicks, and expects him to exploit Smith's weaknesses, possibly finishing him.

"I'm going to go with uh Vito patrino put him putting him away"