vs
+150 -150
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg Next Fight
Age 39
Height 5' 7"
Reach 70"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - José Aldo
3.65 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.81 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
0.47 TD Avg
51.0% TD Acc.
92.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jonathan Martinez
4.44 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
4.09 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.38 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
José Aldo
Moneyline
Caesars +150
KO/TKO
FanDuel +550
Submission
BetRivers +2800
Decision
FanDuel +260
Jonathan Martinez
Moneyline
BetRivers -150
KO/TKO
BetRivers +410
Submission
FanDuel +1700
Decision
FanDuel +150
José Aldo - Fight History
LOSS vs Aiemann Zahabi
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 1 68 of 167 40% 71 of 170 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Aiemann Zahabi 0 99 of 199 49% 109 of 209 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 23 of 59 38% 23 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aiemann Zahabi 0 21 of 46 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 José Aldo 0 25 of 72 34% 25 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aiemann Zahabi 0 26 of 66 39% 26 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 José Aldo 1 20 of 36 55% 23 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Aiemann Zahabi 0 52 of 87 59% 62 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 68 of 167 40% 48 of 135 13 of 25 7 of 7 67 of 166 0 of 0 1 of 1
Aiemann Zahabi 99 of 199 49% 79 of 167 14 of 22 6 of 10 66 of 151 8 of 11 25 of 37
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 23 of 59 38% 12 of 42 6 of 12 5 of 5 23 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 21 of 46 45% 15 of 39 4 of 5 2 of 2 18 of 43 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 25 of 72 34% 17 of 62 6 of 8 2 of 2 25 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 26 of 66 39% 19 of 50 3 of 8 4 of 8 25 of 64 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 20 of 36 55% 19 of 31 1 of 5 0 of 0 19 of 35 0 of 0 1 of 1
Aiemann Zahabi 52 of 87 59% 45 of 78 7 of 9 0 of 0 23 of 44 4 of 6 25 of 37
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aldo (-218), Zahabi (+180)

Round 1
A day and a half ago, the “featured fight of the night” slot was booked as a bantamweight affair. Elder statesman and beloved champ Aldo (32-9, 14-8 UFC) could not get close to 136 pounds, so he and Zahabi (12-2, 6-2 UFC) agreed to bump it up to featherweight to keep it together due to strange Canadian weight regulations. In what could be a passing of the torch match—this could be said about the last five fights or so for the ex-WEC champ—referee Dan Miragliotta will be installed as the cage commander. The two relieved fighters who did not have to cut nearly as much weight as they expected bump fists to get the fight started. Aldo marches forward, guard high, and Zahabi circles all the way around him. Aldo keeps following his foe, neither man throwing a strike of merit for the first 50 seconds. Aldo finally lands a jab, but it is just one jab. Zahabi jabs him back, and Aldo responds with a speedy head kick that bounces into his foe’s armpit. Zahabi jumps in and out to strike, and Aldo lets go with a body kick and two hooks. Aldo cracks the Canadian with a right hand, sending Zahabi back in a hurry. He lands another right hand, and lifts up a knee to counter something that does not get to him. Zahabi gets off two punches, and Aldo does not even register them and loads up a right hand that bangs into the Canadian’s head. Zahabi reaches his foe with a body kick, and Aldo continues marching forward without fear. Aldo lifts his knee up to block a high kick, and he jabs with the ball of his foot extended. Aldo rips the body with two punches, and Zahabi’s guard lower as he frowns. Aldo doubles up on a jab to strike with a right hand, and he gets countered and sways to avoid the worst of them. Aldo counters Zahabi coming in with a hook, and he jabs the body when he notices Zahabi is not retaliating. Aldo scores a mighty low kick, and Zahabi walks towards him to score a pair of punches. Zahabi flashes a grin, and he splits the guard with a few jabs and a couple right hands. Aldo leans back and dodges several punches, and he engages with power offense of his own. Aldo uses a power jab to set up further punches, and he no-sells a left hook and fires one back. Aldo goes to the body, and Zahabi counters with a front kick and a punch. Aldo cracks him with a left hand, and the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldo

Round 2
Zahabi starts off the round in a flurry, crashing the pocket and kneeing the former champ flush in the chest. Aldo forces him to settle down with a front kick to the midsection. Aldo flicks out a quick jab, and he sneaks in a low kick before Zahabi can get to him. Aldo checks a kick and swings for the fences, but the Canadian is able to escape them. Aldo checks a leg kick and snaps out his jab, intercepting his advancing opponent every time. Zahabi walks through a few to try to strike, and Aldo goes to the body and head. When Zahabi strikes back, Aldo is nowhere to be found. Aldo pounds the body with a right hand, and he takes a left hook on the forehead so he can rifle off a big hook of his own. Aldo slips a punch and has one scrape off his forehead, and they jab one another up. The former beltholder plays the matador, absorbing a single left hand and landing his own. Zahabi’s foot rises up in a combination, and his foot strikes the groin. He immediately apologizes, and Aldo knows it was totally by accident. They restart in a few seconds, with Zahabi cut on the side of his right eye. Aldo lets him come at him so he can counter, and he ducks a leaping left hand to sneak away. Zahabi kicks him square in the groin, and this time, Aldo is a little more irritated and takes some time, while saying “that’s two” to Miragliotta. Time is called, and Aldo is perturbed but they tap gloves to get going after 15 seconds and push ahead. Zahabi aims a kick much lower to avoid the groin, and he has another get checked. Aldo whips a body shot at him and looks to dodge a jab. Zahabi clips the former beltholder with a left hand, and Aldo pushes off with a front kick and a few jabs. Zahabi dings him with another left, and Aldo shakes his head. Aldo leaps in the air, landing a flying knee to the body at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldo

Round 3
The fighters hug it out as the last round begins. Zahabi reintroduces himself with a one-two, beating Aldo to the punch with a few strikes until Aldo revs up his own engine and stinging the Canadian. Aldo lets Zahabi fly past him, but when Zahabi resets, Zahabi lands three punches down the middle. Aldo shakes his head and drives a knee into his chest. Two body shots from the Brazilian land cleanly, and he ducks down and takes a left hand over the top along with a knee to the body. Aldo surges into action, hurting Zahabi with a knee, a right hand and a head kick that send him flying. Aldo punches his foe and drills Zahabi with a legal soccer kick, and Zahabi is all over the place and barely with it. Aldo chases after him and blasts him with another soccer kick, and Zahabi flops to his back and survives it. Miraculously, Zahabi is still in the fight, and he manages to stand back in front of Aldo, who is looking hard at the clock. The Brazilian is totally spent trying to force the finish, and suddenly momentum has shifted again. Zahabi pours it on, and he marches Aldo down and starts hurting him. A gassed Aldo shoots for a takedown, and Zahabi bowls him over and starts landing punches. Zahabi sits in Aldo’s guard, unleashing heavy punches and elbows. Zahabi continues to assault the former champ with unblocked elbows, and Aldo hangs on tight with nothing left to offer. Aldo keeps his hands up and breathes as hard as one can, and he clings to Zahabi while Zahabi offers more elbows. Zahabi complains that Aldo is holding his glove, and a moment of confusion leads to Zahabi hammering Aldo with more elbows. One slashing elbow shreds open a cut on the middle of Aldo’s forehead, and blood streams down his face immediately. Zahabi keeps pouring it on, looking to Miragliotta for a stoppage that is not yet to come. Every time Zahabi nails Aldo, he looks to Miragliotta. Aldo holds on to save himself and run out the clock, and Zahabi helps him back to his feet when the shocking match concludes. Both teams lift their fighters on their shoulders and parade them around the cage, embracing while held on the shoulders. What a fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)

The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Jose Aldo via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

Angelo picks José Aldo despite his age, noting he is still fast, clean, dangerous, durable, and impossible to take down. He argues Aldo won his last fight against Mario Bautista. He mentions an inside distance decision no action prop as an alternative if the moneyline is too steep. He believes Aldo is clearly the better fighter.

Considering inside distance decision no action prop
"It is pretty clear that Jose is actually the better fighter. Even at his age, he is fast, he's clean, he's dangerous, he's durable, he's impossible to take down."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Big Brady picks the underdog Zahabi, citing his excellent striking defense (71%) and recent improved volume. He thinks the fight will be a close striking match that goes to decision, and with the fight in Canada, Zahabi could get the nod. He notes Aldo is 38 and hasn't used leg kicks in years, and believes the line is too wide.

"I'm going to take Zahabi to win a very close competitive decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Connor picks José Aldo, acknowledging that Zahabi has improved but arguing that Aldo's level of competition and technical striking will prevail. He notes that Zahabi's high guard and predictable patterns will be exploited by Aldo's body shots and counters. Connor expresses some concern about Aldo's age but ultimately believes he is still too good.

"I'm not going to pick it either. I mean even getting countered by like mario batista... it's hard to look at the hobby like... and not imagine jose aldo just tearing his liver out of his rib cage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

The host acknowledges Zahabi's recent streak but believes he will struggle against Aldo's Muay Thai. He notes that Aldo remains dangerous in striking even in losses and doubts Zahabi has the grappling or strength to control Aldo against the cage like Bautista did. He expects Aldo to lead in striking and win on the scorecards.

"I think Aldo, even in losses, has shown he is still very dangerous in the striking room."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks Aldo, believing he still has elite skills and will be too much for Zahabi. He thinks Aldo's reach, body shots, and experience will lead to a TKO, possibly in the second round. He doubts Zahabi can hold Aldo against the cage like other fighters have, and notes Aldo's motivation after the controversial Batista loss.

TKO in the second round
"I'm going to go with Jose Aldo getting this one done. I'm going to say Jose Aldo gets a TKO in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Zane picks José Aldo, arguing that Zahabi has never faced an elite-level athlete like Aldo. He notes that Zahabi's success comes from exploiting opponents who try to power through, but Aldo is a technical striker who will punish Zahabi's sloppy boxing. Zane believes Aldo's body work and counter-striking will be too much for Zahabi.

"I'm not going to pick it either. I mean even getting countered by like mario batista... it's hard to look at the hobby like... and not imagine jose aldo just tearing his liver out of his rib cage."
LOSS vs Mario Bautista
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 51 of 117 43% 65 of 139 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 49 of 142 34% 90 of 196 0 of 10 0% 0 0 7:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 13 of 26 50% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 20 of 53 37% 40 of 81 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:20
2 Mario Bautista 0 21 of 43 48% 25 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 19 of 53 35% 31 of 65 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:14
3 Mario Bautista 0 17 of 48 35% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 10 of 36 27% 19 of 50 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 51 of 117 43% 41 of 105 6 of 8 4 of 4 46 of 111 2 of 3 3 of 3
José Aldo 49 of 142 34% 26 of 111 12 of 19 11 of 12 44 of 136 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 13 of 26 50% 8 of 21 1 of 1 4 of 4 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
José Aldo 20 of 53 37% 8 of 39 5 of 6 7 of 8 15 of 48 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 21 of 43 48% 19 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 40 0 of 0 3 of 3
José Aldo 19 of 53 35% 15 of 46 2 of 5 2 of 2 19 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 17 of 48 35% 14 of 44 3 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 10 of 36 27% 3 of 26 5 of 8 2 of 2 10 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.

"I'm going to be picking Mario Batista here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.

second round knockout
"I like uh I like Alo here to win this fight I think he could even knock out Mario Batista you know Batista he's hitable we've seen him hurt we've seen him knocked out Trevon Jones knocked him out I …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.

"I think I'm gonna go Jose Aldo"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.

Same odds commentary.
"I think batista looks like a much tougher opponent. Yeah, absolutely does."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.

"I'm going Aldo too uh I can't I couldn't believe it uh but going Jose Aldo too I think for me you know like you said I think what you look at with Mario Batista's record like yeah he's looked …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.

"I think Jose is gonna outclass this guy the first two rounds and Coast the last round win a 2928 unanimous decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.

"I got to go first I can't fade it Jose Aldo surprisingly he just still looks damn good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.

"I think Bautista will do a good enough job in terms of Landing his strikes from distance and I think he'll be able to crack Aldo a few times which will keep Aldo from getting to his game"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.

"Bautista definitely has my interests and potentially my money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.

"I'm going to go with Jose Aldo over Mario Batista never doubt Aldo against the B"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.

Aldo opened at +149, now +124. Bautista opened at -168, now -139.
"I think i'm gonna pick batista though. I'm picking him too. I don't feel confident at all. I don't feel good about it. I don't feel confident in it. No, like I think he's gonna lose."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 77 of 139 55% 101 of 174 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Jonathan Martinez 0 52 of 118 44% 80 of 151 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 17 of 46 36% 17 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 15 of 34 44% 16 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 José Aldo 0 30 of 50 60% 30 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 14 of 38 36% 20 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:20
3 José Aldo 0 30 of 43 69% 54 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Jonathan Martinez 0 23 of 46 50% 44 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 77 of 139 55% 41 of 96 26 of 33 10 of 10 70 of 132 5 of 5 2 of 2
Jonathan Martinez 52 of 118 44% 36 of 96 9 of 15 7 of 7 50 of 116 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 17 of 46 36% 5 of 30 6 of 10 6 of 6 17 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 15 of 34 44% 8 of 23 1 of 5 6 of 6 15 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 30 of 50 60% 15 of 34 11 of 12 4 of 4 30 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 14 of 38 36% 12 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 30 of 43 69% 21 of 32 9 of 11 0 of 0 23 of 36 5 of 5 2 of 2
Jonathan Martinez 23 of 46 50% 16 of 38 6 of 7 1 of 1 21 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Angelo picks Martinez due to age and activity, believing Aldo is older than listed and rusty after two years. He notes Martinez's leg kicks and technical striking. However, he does not bet on the fight out of respect for Aldo and hopes Aldo wins.

"I do think Jonathan Martinez wins this fight but I'm not going to bet on this fight I have too much respect and too much love for Jose Aldo"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady is torn due to Aldo's long layoff and retirement, but thinks Aldo's power and the Brazil factor could lead to a decision win. He notes Martinez's leg kicks may be less effective against Aldo. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Aldo by 'robbery decision'.

"I'm going to pick Jose Aldo here to pull off the upset."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, citing the Brazilian crowd and judging bias, Aldo's power to have singular moments, and Martinez's questionable chin. He notes Aldo's boxing activity keeps him sharp and that Martinez faces pressure in Brazil. Cody took Aldo at +145.

"I took him at plus 145 yesterday... just cuz I was like Martinez been fighting a lot of these Apex cards in front of nobody..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland picks Martinez by decision, citing Martinez's youth, leg kicks, and efficient grappling. He questions Aldo's motivation after retirement and notes that Aldo has not used his leg kicks or takedowns recently. He believes Martinez will win at kicking range and that Aldo's boxing focus may not be enough. He stays away from betting the moneyline due to uncertainty about which Aldo shows up.

"official pick Martinez for you Martinez decision is the official pick"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Jonathan Martinez. He says he doesn't want to pick against Jose Aldo in Rio due to potential weird judging, but everything points to Martinez. Vreeland notes that Aldo has surprised before, but the circumstances suggest Martinez should win.

"do you really want to pick against um Jose AO and Rio too as well like you never know oh yeah get like weird judges scorecards"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Lean picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Jeff Fox picks Jonathan Martinez but calls it a pure pass fight. He acknowledges that prime Jose Aldo was better than Martinez, but questions Aldo's motivation since he has stated he wants to box and is fighting out his UFC contract. Fox thinks if Aldo is not motivated, Martinez will make him pay. He also notes the risk of judging in Rio and Aldo's ability to surprise. Fox says he doesn't want any part of the line but thinks Martinez wins.

"I'll take Jonathan Martinez thinking Jose Aldo comes in not giving a [__] and that's why there officially for no play"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo is the Godfather of the kicking game and will shut down Martinez's kicks. He will use his speed and power advantage to crash the pocket and find Martinez's chin. Despite coming back from retirement at 37, Aldo's hand speed and power will be too much for Martinez, who is uncomfortable striking inside the pocket. Aldo knocks him out.

knockout
"look for Aldo to March down Martinez and eventually knock him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul picks Martinez, arguing Aldo gets out-struck in most fights and relies on moments. He believes Martinez's volume, speed, and leg kicks will overwhelm Aldo, who hasn't fought MMA in 10 months and looked poor in boxing. Paul sees Martinez winning by decision.

Martinez by decision
"I got to go with Jonathan Martinez... Martinez just out works him with the volume..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo, predicting a body shot finish. He believes Aldo's boxing and low-kick defense will be key, and that Martinez's recent performances show vulnerabilities. He notes Aldo's wins over Marlon Vera and Rob Font, and expects his size and experience to overwhelm Martinez.

body shot
"I'm going to say that Aldo puts him away with a body shot"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 38 of 67 56% 59 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 57 of 147 38% 135 of 230 0 of 16 0% 0 0 5:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 15 of 25 60% 21 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 16 of 49 32% 21 of 54 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:34
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 22 50% 25 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 11 of 29 37% 62 of 84 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:54
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 30 of 69 43% 52 of 92 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 38 of 67 56% 11 of 35 21 of 25 6 of 7 35 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0
José Aldo 57 of 147 38% 20 of 102 10 of 14 27 of 31 43 of 132 14 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 15 of 25 60% 1 of 8 11 of 13 3 of 4 15 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
José Aldo 16 of 49 32% 2 of 31 3 of 4 11 of 14 15 of 47 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 22 50% 5 of 15 4 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 11 of 29 37% 5 of 22 2 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 12 of 20 60% 5 of 12 6 of 7 1 of 1 11 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 30 of 69 43% 13 of 49 5 of 7 12 of 13 19 of 58 11 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili over José Aldo, though he admits it's a tough pick and he'll be rooting for Aldo. He highlights Aldo's legendary takedown defense, noting that only Frankie Edgar has taken him down more than once in 27 Zuffa fights. However, Angelo believes that without Aldo's leg kicks to slow Merab's relentless wrestling, Aldo will be defending takedowns all night and likely lose a decision. He emphasizes Merab's insane 7.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and his chain-wrestling style.

Plans to hammer the 'most takedowns' prop bet on Merab Dvalishvili when it drops on BetOnline, similar to the Jason Witt bet.
"murab's gonna be the pick i'm gonna be rooting for jose aldo the entire time and i will gladly get this pick wrong"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo as the underdog. He highlights Aldo's 90% takedown defense against elite competition, and believes Merab Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling will be neutralized. Aldo is the clearly better striker and has looked good recently. Brady expects Aldo to stuff takedowns, land more damage on the feet, and win a decision. He notes that Dvalishvili's wins are against lower-level competition and this is a big step up.

Aldo by decision
"i like the dog here on jose auto i like him to stuff takedowns i know it's not going to be a very popular pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo as a live underdog, citing Aldo's excellent takedown defense (90% career), striking advantage, and ability to win rounds. He thinks Merab's run is overrated and that Aldo can exploit his aggressive style. He acknowledges it's a close fight but likes the plus money.

"i think jose still again another one of these guys that's getting a little bit older but probably still has something left in the tank for underdog money in this close of a fight he's going to lose half the …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to win a split decision, but he is hesitant because the fight is three rounds instead of five. He notes that Aldo has legendary takedown defense (90% over a long sample size) and will likely win the first round. However, he worries about Aldo's cardio in the elevation of Salt Lake City, as Aldo did not train at altitude. Levi believes Merab's relentless wrestling and pace will wear Aldo down in the second and third rounds, leading to a close decision. He acknowledges that Aldo could win a split decision and that there is value on Aldo as a dog.

Mentions that if it were a five-round fight he would confidently pick Merab, but as a three-round fight it's a toss-up. Says Aldo dog money has value because it could be a split decision.
"five round fight I'm confidently picking morab three-round fight it's it's uh it's like who's judging this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo's superior striking, get-up game, and takedown defense should allow him to land more damage than Dvalishvili, who struggles to hold opponents down. The host expects Aldo to win by knockout, possibly similar to the Jack Cartwright fight. He advises only 1 unit due to the risk of a changing of the guard.

Aldo by knockout (+450) is mentioned. Also notes under 2.5 rounds (+175) and doesn't go to decision (+150).
"I like jose aldo on the spot and i'm doing my best to not get sucked into the whole aldo and how great he used to be."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul picks Merab but is not confident. He thinks Merab's relentless takedown attempts could be key, but notes his poor top control. He mentions he might play Merab over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks and prefers live betting.

over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks
"i'm gonna pick marab i think he does secure takedowns won't be touching this unless it's in a live betting market"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
José Aldo

The Guru predicts José Aldo wins by TKO in the second round. He describes Aldo popping the jab, landing leg kicks, and checking Merab's leg kicks. He sees Aldo stuffing takedowns, landing knees to the body, and eventually hurting Merab with body shots, leading to a TKO. He acknowledges the possibility that Aldo could get mashed up like he did against Yan in the fifth round, but believes his prediction will come true.

TKO in round 2
"tko in the second round for jose aldo the legend"
WIN vs Rob Font
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 149 of 305 48% 193 of 350 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:08
Rob Font 2 86 of 161 53% 96 of 172 0 of 1 0% 1 0 9:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 36 of 90 40% 37 of 91 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:50
Rob Font 1 26 of 41 63% 27 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
2 José Aldo 0 48 of 89 53% 48 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 0 23 of 51 45% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 José Aldo 0 37 of 64 57% 46 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 0 12 of 29 41% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:10
4 José Aldo 0 10 of 20 50% 27 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 1 10 of 12 83% 15 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:35
5 José Aldo 0 18 of 42 42% 35 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Rob Font 0 15 of 28 53% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 149 of 305 48% 94 of 238 38 of 48 17 of 19 135 of 289 6 of 8 8 of 8
Rob Font 86 of 161 53% 57 of 129 19 of 20 10 of 12 75 of 146 2 of 3 9 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 36 of 90 40% 21 of 72 12 of 14 3 of 4 36 of 90 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rob Font 26 of 41 63% 19 of 34 4 of 4 3 of 3 23 of 37 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 José Aldo 48 of 89 53% 23 of 60 13 of 17 12 of 12 48 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rob Font 23 of 51 45% 15 of 41 8 of 9 0 of 1 23 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 37 of 64 57% 29 of 55 6 of 7 2 of 2 35 of 61 2 of 3 0 of 0
Rob Font 12 of 29 41% 5 of 21 0 of 0 7 of 8 11 of 27 0 of 1 1 of 1
4 José Aldo 10 of 20 50% 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 8 of 8
Rob Font 10 of 12 83% 6 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3
5 José Aldo 18 of 42 42% 12 of 32 6 of 9 0 of 1 14 of 37 4 of 5 0 of 0
Rob Font 15 of 28 53% 12 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

Angelo picks Rob Font, citing his volume, jab, and youth. He notes Aldo looked great against Munoz but Font's non-stop jab and five-round pace could be key. Angelo is worried about Aldo's leg kicks but goes with Font.

"i need to go with font here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Rob Font

Big Brady picks Rob Font to win by decision, but with low confidence and says he will not bet the main event. He notes Font's high volume (5.58 sig strikes/min) and cardio advantage, and that Aldo has slowed down in past fights. He also points out that Aldo hasn't attempted a takedown since 2014, despite Font's poor takedown defense (53%). Brady thinks the line should be closer and would consider Aldo as a dog if betting. He expects a close fight with Font's volume being key.

by decision; if anything, dog or pass for Jose Aldo at plus money
"i'll take rob font by decision but not too much confidence in that"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody is tempted by the underdog price on Aldo, noting his career resurgence against Pedro Munoz. He argues that Aldo's losses are to elite fighters like Volkanovski and Yan, while Font's wins are over aging or chinny opponents. Cody believes Aldo's power and leg kicks could counter Font's jab, and that Aldo might get a close decision in Vegas. However, he acknowledges Aldo's cardio issues in championship rounds and is only slightly leaning towards him.

"as of right now i think i'm gonna go slight edge towards the underdog jose aldo we'll see if anything changes but this is dog city and uh there's maybe an underdog in the main event here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Levi picks José Aldo to win a decision, citing Aldo's improved output in recent fights, particularly the Munoz fight where he threw more in round three than earlier rounds. He believes Aldo has more weapons, including body work and leg kicks, and that Aldo's experience and ability to sneak through three rounds will be key. He acknowledges Rob Font's dangerous jab but thinks Aldo can overcome it.

"I think jose can sneak through three of these rounds come out here win this decision and show he's still relevant"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Jacob picks José Aldo, citing his leg kicks, level changes, and veteran savvy. He notes Aldo worked with boxers to improve head movement and should mix in takedowns to slow Font's jab. Jacob is reluctant but thinks Aldo can win.

"i'm going with jose uh i don't love the play uh but i just think he's so savvy and such a veteran"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Rob Font

I lean Font. He has good cardio and volume, and he should be able to increase his output in the later rounds. Aldo has not won a five-round fight in years and tends to slow down. However, Aldo is still dangerous with his counters and body work. I think Font wins a decision, but I'm not confident enough to bet him. The decision prop at plus 195 is the play if you like Font.

Font by decision +195
"i am picking fond to win i think if you are playing font i think fought via decision is probably the best way to go"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

Paul believes Rob Font is the rightful favorite due to his volume striking and jab. He thinks Font will outwork Aldo over five rounds, especially if Aldo doesn't land early damaging shots. Paul notes that Font's jab was effective against Cody Garbrandt and expects similar success here. He is confident in Font's ability to maintain pace and outland Aldo.

"i think if it comes down to a five rounds if aldo doesn't land like a liver shot something something really damaging uh doesn't really really attack those leg kicks early on i think he just gets out volume over …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo to win by majority decision (48-47). He expects Aldo to win the first three rounds with superior speed, body shots, and leg kicks. Font will rally in the fourth and fifth, pressuring and landing combinations, but Aldo's early work will secure the win. One judge may give a 10-8 fifth round to Font, but Aldo still wins.

"i'm gonna go with jose aldo decision i'll say 4847 decision for jose aldo"
WIN vs Pedro Munhoz
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 114 of 223 51% 114 of 223 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 75 of 179 41% 75 of 179 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 25 of 60 41% 25 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 28 of 76 36% 28 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 José Aldo 0 42 of 95 44% 42 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 33 of 71 46% 33 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 José Aldo 0 47 of 68 69% 47 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 14 of 32 43% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 114 of 223 51% 74 of 168 32 of 47 8 of 8 114 of 223 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 75 of 179 41% 35 of 131 3 of 6 37 of 42 71 of 175 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 25 of 60 41% 13 of 40 12 of 20 0 of 0 25 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 28 of 76 36% 11 of 54 2 of 4 15 of 18 27 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 42 of 95 44% 32 of 78 9 of 16 1 of 1 42 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 33 of 71 46% 16 of 51 1 of 2 16 of 18 32 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 47 of 68 69% 29 of 50 11 of 11 7 of 7 47 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 14 of 32 43% 8 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 6 12 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Pedro Munhoz

Angelo picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo is likely older than his listed age (34) and may be on the wrong side of 40. He sees Munhoz as a younger, high-volume fighter with leg kicks who can come forward and win. He acknowledges Aldo's counter-striking but believes Munhoz's constant movement and pressure will be key.

"I have Munoz over Aldo... Jose Aldo is not 34 years old, Jose Aldo is 40 or higher... Munoz is like a younger, not as good Aldo... coming forward, lots of volume, tons of leg kicks."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Big Brady sees this as a very close fight between Aldo's power and Munhoz's volume. He leans toward Munhoz's volume, noting Aldo's low output in recent fights. He thinks Munhoz's durability (never finished) will allow him to outwork Aldo and win a decision. He calls it one of the toughest fights to call on the card.

"I'm going to say that Munoz does win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Cody picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo fades in later rounds and Munhoz has excellent cardio and durability. He notes Aldo's recent reliance on grappling against Vera won't work against Munhoz. Cody sees Munhoz winning by decision after dropping the first round, and likes the live betting opportunity.

Munhoz by decision, live betting after round 1
"i'm going to go with pedro moon is on this one i think jose aldo since dropping down his seemingly you know caught a second win his career is you know he's still a top contender he's just not a …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Daniel Levi slightly leans Pedro Munhoz due to Munhoz's high output, durability, and pressure fighting style. He acknowledges that Aldo is technically superior and could win early rounds, but expects Munhoz to take over in the later rounds as Aldo fades. He also notes that Munhoz has been robbed by judges before, which makes him less confident, but he still picks Munhoz to get it done.

"I'm a slightly lean Pedro because of the output but man I would be lying if I said I was confident counting out a legend like Jose Aldo"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo has shown he can adapt, using grappling to win rounds. He is the better striker and should check Munhoz's calf kicks. Munhoz is durable but gets hit a lot, and Aldo can outpoint him over three rounds. Aldo's cardio is better in three-round fights, and he should win a decision. Munhoz's path is marching forward and landing big shots, but Aldo's experience and technique should prevail.

Aldo by decision +180
"I like 34 year old aldo here against the guy in munoz who I think has kind of just been benefiting from that cody garbrandt knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He acknowledges Cody's reasoning and mentions interest in the under 2.5 rounds at +175, but does not commit to a side. He notes that Aldo may look good early but pace slows, and that grappling may not be an option for Aldo.

under 2.5 rounds +175
"i'm interested potentially in the under here we'll see we'll see how these guys look on the scales this week but i think under two and a half rounds of plus 175"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Pedro Munhoz. He notes Aldo's size advantage, reach, and speed, and believes three rounds is not enough for Munhoz to wear on Aldo. He predicts Aldo will win the first two rounds and take a 29-28 decision. He mentions Aldo's body shots and Munhoz's vulnerability to body strikes.

"i'm gonna go with jose aldo here i think he's just too big"
WIN vs Marlon Vera
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Dec 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 44 of 70 62% 60 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 4:57
Marlon Vera 0 46 of 82 56% 92 of 133 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 19 of 29 65% 28 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Marlon Vera 0 16 of 29 55% 29 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:26
2 José Aldo 0 24 of 39 61% 25 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 28 of 50 56% 39 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:25
3 José Aldo 0 1 of 2 50% 7 of 8 0 of 2 0% 0 0 4:53
Marlon Vera 0 2 of 3 66% 24 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 44 of 70 62% 17 of 38 21 of 26 6 of 6 36 of 62 8 of 8 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 46 of 82 56% 8 of 33 11 of 15 27 of 34 34 of 69 12 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 19 of 29 65% 7 of 15 8 of 10 4 of 4 18 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 16 of 29 55% 2 of 10 0 of 3 14 of 16 15 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 24 of 39 61% 9 of 22 13 of 15 2 of 2 17 of 32 7 of 7 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 28 of 50 56% 5 of 21 11 of 12 12 of 17 18 of 40 10 of 10 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 1 of 2 50% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Vera

Round 1
This embarrassment of riches continues tonight, as all-time great Aldo (28-7, 10-6 UFC) faces rising star “Chito” Vera (29-8, 1 NC; 17-8, 1 NC UFC) at bantamweight. Aldo will attempt to earn his first win at 135 pounds in his third try, and he will do so under the watchful eye of referee Dan Miragliotta. The two strikers touch gloves, and it’s time to throw down. Vera starts off with a front kick, and Aldo slaps it out of the way but gets kicked in the leg. The former champ jabs the body, and Vera steps back to kick Aldo’s leg a few times. Aldo slings an overhand right, and he gets off a heavy leg kick like the days of old. Aldo checks a kick, and he absorbs a strike that makes him slip. Vera takes advantage of this to charge in and take the fight down, but Aldo keeps his balance and stands tall against the fence. “Chito” knees Aldo’s thigh a few times as he clings to Aldo, and the two trade short clinch strikes while Vera embraces the grind. Miragliotta calls on Vera to work, so Aldo reverses the position and pushes off, but gets slapped in the face by Vera. Vera lets loose a head kick that gets blocked, and Aldo stalks him down with a few jabs. Aldo digs to the body with a left hand at the end of a short combination, and Vera backpedals against the fence as he eats another liver shot. “Chito” hacks at Aldo’s leg with another kick, but Aldo completely ignores it and blocks a head kick. Aldo slams his right hand on Vera’s stomach, and a thudding leg kick follows suit. Aldo drills Vera with another leg kick, and Vera is already switching stances to avoid these strikes. Aldo fakes a leg kick to draw out a reaction, and he comes up short with a punch to the body. Vera crashes in to clinch, and Aldo spins him out and takes the center of the cage again. Aldo tattoos Vera’s midsection with another punch, and Vera responds with a head kick. Aldo replies in kind, and comes after it with a pounding leg kick that gives WEC fans something to cheer about. The round ends as Vera goes for a spinning kick to the head.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo

Round 2
A confident Vera comes out of his corner striking, but Vera is there to greet him with a few leg kicks. The former champ lets loose a right hand, and he picks away at his opponent with kicks. Aldo pierces the midsection with a right hand, and a kick makes Vera retreat and bounce off the fence. Aldo jabs and absorbs a body kick, but he wades through it to swing a hook from each hand. When Vera crashes in, Aldo is easily out of the way and shoves his man back. Vera scores a stern leg kick, and Aldo sits down on a body shot and a looping uppercut. When Vera commits to another low kick, Aldo is there to meet him with a few crushing body shots. Vera wears them well, but Aldo is back for more and even absorbs the end of a spinning back fist without issue. Vera pushes into a clinch to pursue a trip takedown, but the Brazilian keeps his footing as he knees the body repeatedly. Vera very nearly lands a takedown, but Aldo not only stays standing, but he knees Vera to the liver and the head on the way up. Aldo’s right to the body gets countered by a quick hook from Vera, and Vera presses forward to tie up Aldo again. Aldo is content to pepper away at the body with short shots, and Vera pays him back with a stern knee while keeping the ex-champ pinned to the fence. Vera lands a few body shots and an elbow over the top to break up the clinch and conclude the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vera

Round 3
The touch of gloves opens the round, but Vera is ready to throw leather. Aldo ducks a strike, and when “Chito” tries to clinch up, Aldo circles around and takes his back. Vera defends himself from a takedown with a no-look elbow, but Aldo drags him down and then hops on like a Brazilian backpack. Vera leans down while trying to shake off Aldo, but the Ecuadorian falls to his knees. Aldo sinks in the body lock as he fishes for a choke, and Vera fights the grip and keeps his neck clear. The former champ confers with his corner as he holds on to Vera’s back, switching arms for the choke but not finding anything. “Chito” grabs the gloves to stop Aldo from getting a choke locked up, until Miragliotta notices and tells Vera to knock it off. Aldo softens him up with a few punches, but Vera powers up to his knees. Aldo is still firmly in back control with a body triangle locked tightly, and Vera bounces Aldo into the cage to try to scrape him off. Vera walks across the cage to take Aldo away from his corner and into Vera’s, and he slams down to get the ex-champ off but Aldo does not loosen up. Aldo sticks to Vera’s back as Vera stands back up again, and he cannot break the grip no matter how hard he tries. Vera signals a thumbs-down to show his displeasure with the position, but the round ends with Aldo on him like a cheap suit. Barring some strange judging antics, Jose Aldo should finally have earned his first win in the bantamweight division, while snapping a lengthy win streak at 135 pounds for Vera.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)

The Official Result
Jose Aldo def. Marlon Vera via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
José Aldo

Angelo picks José Aldo as a guaranteed win, arguing that Marlon Vera's win over Sean O'Malley was a fluke due to O'Malley's ankle injury. He believes Aldo, one of the best strikers of all time, will easily outclass Vera.

"jose aldo you're going to choose him that's a guaranteed win i mean marlon vera got a fluke win against sugar shawn o'malley"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo over Marlon Vera, arguing that Aldo's level of competition is far superior and that Vera is overhyped. He notes Aldo's 90% takedown defense and believes Vera cannot take him down, forcing a striking match where Aldo has the edge. Brady thinks the fight goes to decision and considers the decision prop a good look, as Vera has never been finished.

decision prop on Aldo, fight goes to decision, over 2.5 rounds
"i'm going to take jose aldo to win here by decision and um i think the decision props not a bad look"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

The host is extremely confident in Aldo, calling him his strongest play on the card. He believes Aldo's leg kicks, boxing, and body work will overwhelm Vera, who is a slow starter and has never faced anyone of Aldo's level. He notes the line is too close due to recency bias and expects Aldo to win inside the distance.

Aldo inside the distance via TKO
"i think he wipes the floor with marlon vera here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2020 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

The Guru picks José Aldo, emphasizing that this is a three-round fight which favors Aldo's cardio. He notes Aldo's close fight with Yan and his wins over Stephens and Moicano. He believes Aldo's leg kicks and experience will be key, and that Vera's win over O'Malley was due to a fluke leg injury. He predicts a competitive 29-28 decision for Aldo.

Mentions that if Dominick Cruz beats Casey Kenny, a fight between Aldo and Cruz could determine a title shot.
"i think aldo is going to win this fight in a competitive very fun fight of the night performance 29 28 to jose aldo"
LOSS vs Petr Yan
TKO (punches) R5 3:24 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Petr Yan 1 194 of 309 62% 258 of 376 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:50
José Aldo 0 83 of 157 52% 83 of 157 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Petr Yan 0 33 of 55 60% 34 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
José Aldo 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Petr Yan 0 16 of 42 38% 16 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 24 of 41 58% 24 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Petr Yan 0 39 of 72 54% 39 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 29 of 49 59% 29 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Petr Yan 0 44 of 72 61% 56 of 86 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:05
José Aldo 0 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Petr Yan 1 62 of 68 91% 113 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:06
José Aldo 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Petr Yan 194 of 309 62% 150 of 256 35 of 44 9 of 9 99 of 201 9 of 11 86 of 97
José Aldo 83 of 157 52% 38 of 97 28 of 39 17 of 21 81 of 154 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Petr Yan 33 of 55 60% 21 of 42 10 of 11 2 of 2 17 of 36 0 of 0 16 of 19
José Aldo 14 of 39 35% 10 of 28 1 of 6 3 of 5 14 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Petr Yan 16 of 42 38% 11 of 35 3 of 5 2 of 2 16 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
José Aldo 24 of 41 58% 7 of 22 8 of 10 9 of 9 24 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Petr Yan 39 of 72 54% 27 of 56 10 of 14 2 of 2 35 of 68 4 of 4 0 of 0
José Aldo 29 of 49 59% 13 of 27 12 of 16 4 of 6 27 of 46 2 of 3 0 of 0
4 Petr Yan 44 of 72 61% 32 of 58 9 of 11 3 of 3 28 of 52 5 of 7 11 of 13
José Aldo 15 of 27 55% 8 of 20 7 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Petr Yan 62 of 68 91% 59 of 65 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 59 of 65
José Aldo 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan by fourth-round knockout, citing Yan's volume and youth. He thinks Aldo is live but Yan's pressure and output will overwhelm Aldo late. He is not betting at -245 but believes Yan wins if he doesn't get caught.

fourth round knockout
"i'm gonna pick yon i think he's going to put it on aldo all either all five rounds or get him out there late maybe that third fourth round ... give me yawn bye give me fourth round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Daniel Levi picks Petr Yan, citing his cardio, composure, pressure, and competitive spirit. He believes Yan will push Aldo back, chip away, and potentially finish him in the first three rounds. He notes Aldo's chin deterioration, lack of low kicks, and tendency to gas, while Yan controls the cage and never takes a back step. He expects Yan to become champion.

predicts finish within three rounds
"I'm going with Peter yen and become the bantamweight champion by finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo looked impressive in his bantamweight debut against Marlon Moraes, showing good cardio and aggression. Yan has flaws in leg kick defense, which Aldo can exploit. Aldo is still sharp and fast at 33, and the line at +181 offers value. Picks Aldo to win by decision, though a late stoppage is possible.

1-unit bet at +181
"I took a shot on him at one unit at plus 181"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The Guru picks Yan, citing Yan's low volume as a tactic to get reads, and his ability to drop Rivera at the end of rounds. He thinks Aldo's cardio isn't the best in a five-rounder and that Yan could take him down and make him think about the takedown. He also notes that Marlon Moraes was able to take Aldo down, suggesting Aldo's takedown defense may not be as sturdy at bantamweight.

"I think yang could go out there and double look double again I don't think our dough's gonna have the same urgency to get up when he knows he's in a five rounder and his cardio isn't the best the …"
Jonathan Martinez - Fight History
LOSS vs Marcus McGhee
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcus McGhee 0 48 of 108 44% 49 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Jonathan Martinez 0 102 of 223 45% 105 of 226 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcus McGhee 0 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 33 of 75 44% 33 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marcus McGhee 0 17 of 47 36% 17 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 42 of 93 45% 45 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marcus McGhee 0 24 of 43 55% 25 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Jonathan Martinez 0 27 of 55 49% 27 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcus McGhee 48 of 108 44% 24 of 76 3 of 8 21 of 24 46 of 105 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 102 of 223 45% 60 of 167 18 of 27 24 of 29 100 of 220 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcus McGhee 7 of 18 38% 0 of 11 1 of 1 6 of 6 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 33 of 75 44% 17 of 52 5 of 11 11 of 12 33 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marcus McGhee 17 of 47 36% 12 of 38 1 of 4 4 of 5 16 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 42 of 93 45% 27 of 73 6 of 8 9 of 12 41 of 92 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marcus McGhee 24 of 43 55% 12 of 27 1 of 3 11 of 13 23 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 27 of 55 49% 16 of 42 7 of 8 4 of 5 26 of 53 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McGhee (-142), Martinez (+120)

Round 1
Feet and fists are sure to fly in the preliminary headliner. The last several stoppage wins for Martinez (19-5, 10-4 UFC) have all come from strikes from his legs, while the hyper-aggressive McGhee (9-1, 3-0 UFC) has used all kinds of weapons to get the job done as of late. Referee Herb Dean will do his best to keep track of these high-speed, elusive bantamweights. Before they begin, Dean is told to examine Martinez’ toenails. He is cleared to go on, with Dean saying he will not clip anything. They share a glove touch before getting down to business. McGhee flips up a high kick and then one down low to say hello with Martinez standing right in front of him. McGhee throws a head kick on the other side, and he lunges forward with a right hand and then jabs with a front kick. A single Martinez leg kick makes McGhee recoil his leg, and this spurs McGhee into action as he starts spamming more kicks. Martinez chips at him with another kick, and McGhee races after him hurling punches. Leg kicks are traded, and McGhee lands at the end of a salvo of punches. McGhee chops at the front leg twice, and the third punch he throws gets through. McGhee strides forward to pitch a head kick, and Martinez parries it without concern but he does not block the follow-up leg kick. Martinez walks McGhee down but is taking fire high and low, and he has not committed to much halfway through the round. McGhee picks at his man from afar, with Martinez unwilling or unable to pull the trigger. McGhee hacks at the front leg and triples up on his jab, where a big left hand does not get through. Martinez maintains heavy pressure and releases a single low kick, and he shoulder rolls to let overhand lefts bounce off him. Leg kicks come from both sides, with McGhee’s volume higher by a factor of at least five. McGhee absorbs a leg kick to throw one back, and he leans back to dodge a flurry and fires back with a vengeance. McGhee jabs to the head and body to end the tentative round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 McGhee
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 McGhee
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 McGhee

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves, and McGhee whips a head kick after. Martinez blocks the first and then the second, keeping his guard up. McGhee chews up his foe’s front leg and body, with Martinez’ blocks effective but counters almost silent. Martinez scores a single leg kick, and McGhee chains a few punches into a kick. Martinez knocks him back with a left hand, but it is one-and-done before McGhee picks up his offense. McGhee plants a one-two on the jaw, and Martinez responses fall flat. Martinez walks into a right hand, and he absorbs a second before throwing back. McGhee reaches his man with a jab, and he uses a side kick to keep Martinez off of him. Martinez spins with a back fist that ricochets off his guard, and he pays Martinez back in spades with a few punches and a kick. When Martinez kicks the front leg, McGhee responds in kind. McGhee puts a couple punches through the guard, getting Martinez’ attention and not giving him much to think about. Martinez manages to sneak in a left hand, but McGhee walks through it as if nothing happened. McGhee’s volume is giving “Dragon” fits, and when he puts power behind a strike, Martinez does not always see it coming. McGhee goes high and opens up a body shot, and he rolls when a left hand thumps him on the temple. Another big left hand from Martinez finds its home, and Martinez celebrates that with a powerful elbow and then a leg kick. Martinez starts picking up the pace, and McGhee appears to be slowing. Martinez misses an elbow by an inch, and they throw hard at one another and cannot score. Martinez sits down on a low kick that draws a limp from his opponent, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 McGhee
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 McGhee
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 McGhee

Round 3
There is a final clap of hands to commence the final stanza. Martinez puts himself in close range, letting McGhee hurl punches at and past him. McGhee strafes from side to side, not letting Martinez bear down on him. McGhee triples up on a jab to the body and then head, and he ends the trio with a leg kick. When Martinez kicks him back, McGhee hops to try to avoid it. Martinez slams another leg kick home, and McGhee gets after it with a lengthy combination ending with a low kick. Martinez jabs out and parries the response, and he smashes McGhee’s front leg with a kick. McGhee hobbles away, clearly compromised, and Martinez slams it two more times. McGhee remains on his feet but is in big trouble, struggling to keep his balance even as the damaged limb is behind him. Martinez pushes into a clinch rather than attack the leg further, and the crowd disagrees with this decision and audibly voice their opinions. Martinez keeps tight until pushing off with a minute 50 to go. Martinez connects with a mean leg kick, and McGhee barely escapes. Martinez blasts the rear leg again, and McGhee is in a bad way. Martinez lets fly a kick to the front leg, and McGhee bursts into action swinging with everything he has left. Martinez takes it on the guard and kicks McGhee, and McGhee is shaking his leg to recover it slightly. McGhee’s blitzes do not have near the pop on them as before, allowing Martinez to get right in his face. Martinez whips a kick to the other leg, and McGhee wings a right hand over the top to keep him honest. McGhee strings a few punches together and backpedals fast, and Martinez follows and bashes the wounded leg one last time. The round ends, with McGhee surviving the pain and very likely pulling off the victory.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (29-28 McGhee)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (29-28 McGhee)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (29-28 McGhee)

The Official Result
Marcus McGhee def. Jonathan Martinez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Angelo picks Marcus McGhee, calling himself a fanboy. He highlights McGhee's power, takedowns, and multiple paths to victory. He notes that Jonathan Martinez is a good fighter but may have been frozen by the moment against Aldo. His only concern is McGhee's gas tank, but he is confident McGhee gets it done.

"I am picking Marcus McGee here I think he gets it done I'm pretty confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Big Brady picks Marcus McGhee, highlighting his power, durability, and grappling upside. He notes that Jonathan Martinez is chinny, having been knocked out or dropped in several fights, while McGhee lands harder shots and has more ways to win. He also believes McGhee has the volume advantage and can finish Martinez, predicting a second-round knockout.

"I like Marcus McGee here I'll take him to win this fight by knockout I think he finishes Martinez second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Cody picks Marcus McGhee, citing his pressure, power, and wrestling advantage. He notes Martinez is a volume striker who relies on kicks, but McGhee will close the distance and force exchanges in the pocket where his power will be decisive. Cody expects McGhee to win by knockout or decision, possibly in the later rounds.

by knockout (plus 225)
"I got Marcus McGee minus 130 minus 140 whatever it is that the numers you're looking at right now um I'll be playing it Maniac McGee That's my boy"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing McGhee's athleticism and counter-combination skills. He notes that McGhee knows exactly what he is building with his pressure and that Martinez's kicking game will be neutralized. Connor also mentions that McGhee is a 'sweet guy' and a gym legend, and that this fight could propel him into the top 15.

"Yeah, I agree. He is just such a ridiculous athlete and he has a really good idea of what he is doing with his counter combinations."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland picks Jonathan Martinez as an upset, citing his experience, reach advantage, and kicking game. He notes McGhee's lack of tested competition and vulnerability to body kicks. He believes Martinez will use his kicks to slow McGhee and mix in knees. He acknowledges McGhee's power but trusts Martinez's durability and proven track record.

"Give me uh Jonathan Martinez for this upset here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Jonathan Martinez

The host notes that people forget Martinez was a favorite against Jose Aldo, and now as an underdog against the hot new prospect McGee, he sees value. He expects Martinez's leg kicks to slow down McGee, allowing Martinez to work his hands in the second and third rounds and win a decision.

betting at plus 110 plus 115
"I have to bet him at this spot especially uh as the underdog here at plus 110 plus 115 as I think his leg kicks will come into play Slow Down Marcus McGee and la Martinez to get to work …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Paul picks Marcus McGhee, agreeing with Cody. He notes McGhee's pressure and power will be too much for Martinez, who tends to retreat when faced with power. Paul expects McGhee to win by knockout or decision, and likes McGhee by knockout at plus 225.

by knockout (plus 225)
"I think he McGee just doesn't really show much respect to the jab walks through it gets in tight and just unloads so uh yeah like like McGee quite a bit uh in this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez, citing his underrated striking and leg kicks. He believes Martinez's investment shots to the legs will be key against McGhee's movement. He trusts Martinez's durability and expects a close decision win.

decision win
"I'm GNA go against Marcus McGee and I'm gonna pick Jonathan Martinez to win... I think he'll be able to make this one close and I think if it's a close back and forth striking match I trust the investment …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Zane picks McGhee because he believes McGhee's pressure style will stifle Martinez's kicking game. He notes that Martinez is uncomfortable in the pocket and has struggled against pressure fighters like Jose Aldo. Zane thinks McGhee's athleticism and methodical pressure will lead to a win, though he acknowledges Martinez could win early with kicks.

Odds: McGee opened at -124, now -128; Martinez opened +112, now +115. Zane notes the odds reflect the open-endedness but expects the fight to look one-sided.
"I think he is capable of doing that. I think martinez is capable of kind of letting it happen. And if it does happen and it does play out that way I will I would pick McGee with pretty high …"
LOSS vs José Aldo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 77 of 139 55% 101 of 174 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Jonathan Martinez 0 52 of 118 44% 80 of 151 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 17 of 46 36% 17 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 15 of 34 44% 16 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 José Aldo 0 30 of 50 60% 30 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 14 of 38 36% 20 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:20
3 José Aldo 0 30 of 43 69% 54 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Jonathan Martinez 0 23 of 46 50% 44 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 77 of 139 55% 41 of 96 26 of 33 10 of 10 70 of 132 5 of 5 2 of 2
Jonathan Martinez 52 of 118 44% 36 of 96 9 of 15 7 of 7 50 of 116 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 17 of 46 36% 5 of 30 6 of 10 6 of 6 17 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 15 of 34 44% 8 of 23 1 of 5 6 of 6 15 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 30 of 50 60% 15 of 34 11 of 12 4 of 4 30 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 14 of 38 36% 12 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 30 of 43 69% 21 of 32 9 of 11 0 of 0 23 of 36 5 of 5 2 of 2
Jonathan Martinez 23 of 46 50% 16 of 38 6 of 7 1 of 1 21 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Angelo picks Martinez due to age and activity, believing Aldo is older than listed and rusty after two years. He notes Martinez's leg kicks and technical striking. However, he does not bet on the fight out of respect for Aldo and hopes Aldo wins.

"I do think Jonathan Martinez wins this fight but I'm not going to bet on this fight I have too much respect and too much love for Jose Aldo"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady is torn due to Aldo's long layoff and retirement, but thinks Aldo's power and the Brazil factor could lead to a decision win. He notes Martinez's leg kicks may be less effective against Aldo. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Aldo by 'robbery decision'.

"I'm going to pick Jose Aldo here to pull off the upset."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, citing the Brazilian crowd and judging bias, Aldo's power to have singular moments, and Martinez's questionable chin. He notes Aldo's boxing activity keeps him sharp and that Martinez faces pressure in Brazil. Cody took Aldo at +145.

"I took him at plus 145 yesterday... just cuz I was like Martinez been fighting a lot of these Apex cards in front of nobody..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Jonathan Martinez. He says he doesn't want to pick against Jose Aldo in Rio due to potential weird judging, but everything points to Martinez. Vreeland notes that Aldo has surprised before, but the circumstances suggest Martinez should win.

"do you really want to pick against um Jose AO and Rio too as well like you never know oh yeah get like weird judges scorecards"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland picks Martinez by decision, citing Martinez's youth, leg kicks, and efficient grappling. He questions Aldo's motivation after retirement and notes that Aldo has not used his leg kicks or takedowns recently. He believes Martinez will win at kicking range and that Aldo's boxing focus may not be enough. He stays away from betting the moneyline due to uncertainty about which Aldo shows up.

"official pick Martinez for you Martinez decision is the official pick"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Lean picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Jeff Fox picks Jonathan Martinez but calls it a pure pass fight. He acknowledges that prime Jose Aldo was better than Martinez, but questions Aldo's motivation since he has stated he wants to box and is fighting out his UFC contract. Fox thinks if Aldo is not motivated, Martinez will make him pay. He also notes the risk of judging in Rio and Aldo's ability to surprise. Fox says he doesn't want any part of the line but thinks Martinez wins.

"I'll take Jonathan Martinez thinking Jose Aldo comes in not giving a [__] and that's why there officially for no play"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo is the Godfather of the kicking game and will shut down Martinez's kicks. He will use his speed and power advantage to crash the pocket and find Martinez's chin. Despite coming back from retirement at 37, Aldo's hand speed and power will be too much for Martinez, who is uncomfortable striking inside the pocket. Aldo knocks him out.

knockout
"look for Aldo to March down Martinez and eventually knock him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul picks Martinez, arguing Aldo gets out-struck in most fights and relies on moments. He believes Martinez's volume, speed, and leg kicks will overwhelm Aldo, who hasn't fought MMA in 10 months and looked poor in boxing. Paul sees Martinez winning by decision.

Martinez by decision
"I got to go with Jonathan Martinez... Martinez just out works him with the volume..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo, predicting a body shot finish. He believes Aldo's boxing and low-kick defense will be key, and that Martinez's recent performances show vulnerabilities. He notes Aldo's wins over Marlon Vera and Rob Font, and expects his size and experience to overwhelm Martinez.

body shot
"I'm going to say that Aldo puts him away with a body shot"
WIN vs Adrian Yañez
TKO (leg kick) R2 2:26 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 2 36 of 58 62% 36 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Adrian Yañez 0 20 of 72 27% 20 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 1 16 of 30 53% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Adrian Yañez 0 14 of 46 30% 14 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jonathan Martinez 1 20 of 28 71% 20 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Adrian Yañez 0 6 of 26 23% 6 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 36 of 58 62% 7 of 15 0 of 2 29 of 41 36 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 20 of 72 27% 9 of 59 10 of 12 1 of 1 17 of 66 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 16 of 30 53% 1 of 5 0 of 2 15 of 23 16 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 14 of 46 30% 5 of 37 8 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Martinez 20 of 28 71% 6 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 18 20 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 6 of 26 23% 4 of 22 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 22 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Angelo picks Adrian Yañez despite the massive line movement toward Martinez. He believes Yañez's boxing is cleaner and faster, and his 100% takedown defense should keep the fight standing. However, he notes Yañez needs to not be gun-shy after his knockout loss and let his hands go. He expects a great fight and potential Fight of the Night.

"Adrian jannis is going to be the pick but you know we're going to need him to let his hands go"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez in a close fight. He thinks Yañez has the volume and power advantage, with great boxing and hand speed, while Martinez relies on kicks. He sees it as a 15-minute striking match that goes to decision, and worries about judges but leans Yañez as a bounce-back spot after his loss to Rob Font.

"I think I'm going to pick Giannis here not a not a ton of confidence because I like Martinez quite a bit"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody picks Martinez, arguing that Yañez is overhyped and has not faced top competition. He points to Yañez's struggles against Randy Costa and Davey Grant, and his loss to Rob Font. Cody highlights Martinez's five-fight win streak, including a dominant win over Cub Swanson, and believes his jab and kicks will trouble Yañez. He also notes Martinez's improved cardio and seasoning at Factory X.

"Jonathan Martinez is the pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The host picks Adrian Yañez as an underdog, surprised at the betting public flipping on him after his loss to Rob Font. He believes Yañez's boxing combinations and power will counter Martinez's kicking game. He expects Yañez to crash the pocket and land a knockout, likely in the first two rounds.

by KO in rounds 1-2
"I was more than happy to take the underdog shot here on yany and uh again surprised at the shortsightedness of the the the betting Community"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Yañez has not been tested by wrestlers and that Martinez could mix in takedowns. He points out that Martinez's kicks can keep the fight at range, neutralizing Yañez's boxing. Paul also mentions that Martinez's volume is lower but his striking is effective, and he expects Martinez to win two of three rounds.

"I'm with you Jonathan Martinez is the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez over Adrian Yañez. He notes Yañez's boxing is good but he has a weakness against kicks, as shown in his fight with Davey Grant (which he thinks Grant won). He praises Martinez's five-fight win streak, including wins over Cub Swanson and Said Nurmagomedov, and his ability to mix in low kicks. He believes Martinez has better momentum and will be more switched on, winning a close decision.

decision
"I'm going to go with Jonathan Martinez over Adrien yunz I think he's got a lot better momentum right now"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 0 47 of 78 60% 101 of 134 3 of 9 33% 2 0 4:21
Said Nurmagomedov 0 38 of 55 69% 78 of 96 0 of 1 0% 1 0 6:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 0 21 of 35 60% 34 of 48 1 of 3 33% 2 0 0:59
Said Nurmagomedov 0 13 of 21 61% 17 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:04
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 16 of 25 64% 28 of 38 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:46
Said Nurmagomedov 0 15 of 22 68% 26 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:16
3 Jonathan Martinez 0 10 of 18 55% 39 of 48 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:36
Said Nurmagomedov 0 10 of 12 83% 35 of 38 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 47 of 78 60% 25 of 50 14 of 19 8 of 9 31 of 57 12 of 14 4 of 7
Said Nurmagomedov 38 of 55 69% 13 of 25 7 of 8 18 of 22 22 of 37 13 of 15 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 21 of 35 60% 8 of 19 8 of 10 5 of 6 14 of 27 7 of 8 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 13 of 21 61% 4 of 9 4 of 5 5 of 7 8 of 15 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Martinez 16 of 25 64% 9 of 16 5 of 7 2 of 2 10 of 19 5 of 5 1 of 1
Said Nurmagomedov 15 of 22 68% 6 of 11 1 of 1 8 of 10 8 of 14 4 of 5 3 of 3
3 Jonathan Martinez 10 of 18 55% 8 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 1 3 of 6
Said Nurmagomedov 10 of 12 83% 3 of 5 2 of 2 5 of 5 6 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Said Nurmagomedov as the better pure striker, noting his versatility and ability to find ways to win. He acknowledges that Martinez has wrestling and can take Said down, but believes Said's striking advantage and proven ability to snatch submissions make him the pick. He thinks the fight is closer than the -200 odds suggest.

"DeMarco Madoff is going to be the pick because I think he's the better overall Striker and he has proven to us time and time again that he can just find ways to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Big Brady picks Jonathan Martinez as a pretty big dog, questioning why Nurmagomedov is such a heavy favorite. He notes Nurmagomedov has only completed two takedowns in the UFC and doesn't wrestle like his last name suggests. Brady likes Martinez's volume and kicks, expects a close fight, and predicts a split decision win for Martinez.

win by split decision
"give me Martinez to pull off the upset I think it's to be a close fight though but these odds aren't indicating that this fight is going to be close at all"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody also picks Martinez, echoing Paul's thoughts on the inflated line. He highlights Martinez's volume and kicking game, and doubts Nurmagomedov's ability to finish. He thinks Martinez can win a decision and likes the plus money.

Martinez by decision +375
"I'm gonna back Jonathan Martinez here because I see a lot of the same things that you do"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Connor picks Martinez, citing his improved pressure and commitment to kicking. He notes that Martinez has worked on his retreats and angles, and that Nurmagomedov makes poor decisions with flashy techniques. Connor believes Martinez's meat-and-potatoes kickboxing will be effective, and that Nurmagomedov's tendency to retreat and spin will leave him open. He acknowledges it's a close fight but favors Martinez's discipline.

Odds mentioned: Martinez opened +190, now +203; Nurmagomedov opened -225, now -253.
"I'm kind of leaning Martinez here just cause I think he's a little more committed to pressuring and in fact, notably more committed to pressuring. ... Martinez is just very meat and potatoes with his kickboxing combinations, hard, low kicks, …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

I like Martinez as the underdog here. His kick-heavy style and volume should keep Nurmagomedov at range. Nurmagomedov's low output and tendency to have close fights could be his downfall. However, I have a bad feeling that Nurmagomedov might catch Martinez with something. I think Martinez wins by decision, but I'm not fully confident.

"I like him in this spot I like him as the underdog I just have this bad feeling in the back of my head that normaga Madoff is going to end up catching him in something"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul picks Martinez as an underdog, believing the line is inflated due to Nurmagomedov's name. He notes Martinez's diverse kicking game, volume, and recent win over Cub Swanson. He thinks Nurmagomedov's striking is overrated and that Martinez can outwork him over three rounds.

Martinez by decision +375
"I will take some Underdog action there on Jamar"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov, trusting his grappling and tricky footwork. He notes that Martinez relies on kicks, and Nurmagomedov's movement will evade them. He believes Nurmagomedov has more options to win, including finishing potential, and will take a decision.

by decision
"I'm going to trust him to win this one Jonathan Martinez relies on his kicks a lot if Say Moves Like A guy who's good at evading kicks with his footwork and his movement very high movement guy not stationary …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov, citing his speed and dynamic striking. He notes that both fighters have similar flaws but Nurmagomedov is faster and more confident. Zane believes that in a long-range kickboxing match, Nurmagomedov's athleticism and trickier attacks will give him the edge. He acknowledges Martinez's improvements but thinks Nurmagomedov's confidence and speed are decisive.

Odds mentioned: Martinez opened +190, now +203; Nurmagomedov opened -225, now -253.
"I'm going to take Nurmagomedov. I think for me, this is just one of those points where two guys are going to come out doing a lot of the same thing and one's a little faster and a little trickier …"
WIN vs Cub Swanson
TKO (leg kick) R2 4:19 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 0 51 of 79 64% 60 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Cub Swanson 2 62 of 102 60% 66 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 1 3:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 0 31 of 50 62% 38 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Cub Swanson 1 33 of 59 55% 35 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:16
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 20 of 29 68% 22 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cub Swanson 1 29 of 43 67% 31 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 51 of 79 64% 10 of 35 9 of 10 32 of 34 48 of 73 3 of 5 0 of 1
Cub Swanson 62 of 102 60% 40 of 77 15 of 18 7 of 7 37 of 64 12 of 14 13 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 31 of 50 62% 5 of 23 5 of 6 21 of 21 29 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 1
Cub Swanson 33 of 59 55% 21 of 45 10 of 12 2 of 2 21 of 39 5 of 6 7 of 14
2 Jonathan Martinez 20 of 29 68% 5 of 12 4 of 4 11 of 13 19 of 26 1 of 3 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 29 of 43 67% 19 of 32 5 of 6 5 of 5 16 of 25 7 of 8 6 of 10
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Angelo leans Cub Swanson, citing his experience, fight IQ, and still-solid chin. He notes that Jonathan Martinez has holes in his game, particularly handling pressure, and that Cub can exploit that in a technical kickboxing match. However, he is not highly confident and calls it a tough pick, acknowledging Martinez's power and recent wins.

"I think I'm gonna have to lean Cub because of his experience his level of competition this is not the most confident pick in the world"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Big Brady picks Cub Swanson for the upset by first-round knockout. He notes that Swanson has looked phenomenal lately, has power and volume, while Martinez has a questionable chin (knocked down multiple times). He thinks Swanson's pressure and hard shots will be too much, but says he'll check the weigh-ins to see if Swanson looks drained from the weight cut. He calls it a super close fight.

Swanson wins by knockout, first round
"I'm actually gonna go with a cub Swanson for the upset here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody leans Martinez for the pick but is more confident in the under 2.5 rounds at +130. He notes Cub Swanson still fights with hands down and chin up, and while he has power, Martinez is faster and more technical. He expects violence in a small cage and thinks the fight ends early.

under 2.5 rounds +130
"I'll lean to him but I think round one could be very very dicey... I'm betting on violence here small cage under two and a half rounds plus 130 sign me up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Connor picks Martinez, citing the age and weight cut concerns for Swanson. He notes that Martinez's range kicking game could cause problems for Swanson, and that Swanson's tendency to struggle against range strikers is a factor. He admits it's a coin flip but goes with the younger, established bantamweight.

"I'll go with Jonathan Martinez, just to be on the opposite side of you on this one. I just don't trust the Bantam weight move for cub."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Swanson is a live underdog at +165 due to his unorthodox striking and power, which could expose Martinez's chin. Martinez is a good striker with kicks and combinations, but he has shown he can be hurt. Swanson's experience and ability to crack opponents make this competitive. However, the weight cut to 135 pounds is a concern; the host wants to see how Swanson looks at weigh-ins before committing. Prediction is Swanson by knockout.

Swanson by knockout
"I'm gonna go Cub Swanson Swanson by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul is tempted by Cub Swanson as a live underdog, especially since the fight is at bantamweight, a new weight class for Swanson. He questions Martinez's chin and weight cut issues, noting Martinez has been dropped before and struggled at 135. He thinks Swanson's power and pace could break Martinez if it becomes a scrap.

Cub Swanson inside the distance
"I think I'm leaning slight dog here at Cub Swanson right now you know what I didn't know that this was that bantamweight I that makes me like it even more."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez over his favorite fighter Cub Swanson, citing momentum and Martinez's age (28) as key factors. He notes that Swanson is moving down to bantamweight, which often leads to poor performances initially. He praises Martinez's leg kicks and slick striking, and predicts a body finish due to Swanson's weaker torso at the new weight.

prediction: finish to the body
"I'm gonna go with Jonathan Martinez over Cub Swanson and it hurts me to say it because Cub Swanson's my favorite fighter"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson, reasoning that if he would pick Swanson at featherweight, he has to still pick him at bantamweight despite the weight cut concerns. He believes Swanson's aggression and ability to punish Martinez's poor defense on the back foot will be key. He acknowledges the risk but trusts Swanson's veteran savvy.

"If I would pick it to happen at one 45 and I know so little about how cub handles a weight cut... then I have to still pick the guy I would pick at featherweight."
WIN vs Vince Morales
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 0 88 of 154 57% 88 of 154 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:41
Vince Morales 0 51 of 153 33% 62 of 164 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 0 24 of 40 60% 24 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vince Morales 0 15 of 35 42% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 36 of 56 64% 36 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vince Morales 0 16 of 56 28% 16 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jonathan Martinez 0 28 of 58 48% 28 of 58 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:41
Vince Morales 0 20 of 62 32% 31 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 88 of 154 57% 41 of 98 18 of 22 29 of 34 86 of 151 2 of 3 0 of 0
Vince Morales 51 of 153 33% 33 of 127 15 of 23 3 of 3 48 of 149 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 24 of 40 60% 6 of 17 4 of 5 14 of 18 24 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vince Morales 15 of 35 42% 8 of 27 5 of 6 2 of 2 15 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Martinez 36 of 56 64% 18 of 37 5 of 6 13 of 13 34 of 53 2 of 3 0 of 0
Vince Morales 16 of 56 28% 10 of 45 5 of 10 1 of 1 15 of 54 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jonathan Martinez 28 of 58 48% 17 of 44 9 of 11 2 of 3 28 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vince Morales 20 of 62 32% 15 of 55 5 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 60 1 of 1 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jonathan Martinez vs. Vince Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-150), Medic (+130)

Round 1
The third man inside the cage for this bantamweight contest is Herb Dean. Both men take their time feeling out the other with each fighter looking to find their distance with leg kicks and jabs over the opening minute. Martinez snaps a body kick that lands and Martinez lands a solid counter punch a few moments later. Martinez throws two other kicks that connect and begins walking down Morales. Martinez continues to land damaging leg kicks as Morales is unable to counter. Another leg kick slows down Morales as Martinez remains the aggressor, who is just one step ahead on the feet but not getting his opponent in any real danger. The round ends with Martinez throwing a jumping knee.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Martinez

Round 2
Morales throws a leg kick and a right ot the body, but Martinez answers with a leg kick that lands much harder. Martinez lands a couple more whipping leg kicks as he controls the center of the cage. Morales blocks a high kick with his forearm. They clinch briefly and separate. Morales is struggling to find the range on his attacks. Martinez with another inside low kick. He’s varying his kicks to the legs well, going to both legs and working the inside and outside. Martinez with a kick to the body followed by a front kick down the middle. Morales pressures and eats a knee down the middle from Martinez for his efforts. Martinez with another outside low kick and he avoids the counter from Morales. Morales wings punches moving forward but can’t connect. Martinez whips another outside leg kick, then he follows a knee with a left hand. Martinez shoves his foe away before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Martinez

Round 3
Martinez lands a push kick and then connects to Morales’ lead leg with an inside low kick. Morales closes the distance but he gets hit with punches. Morales blocks a high kick with his forearm. Martinez flicks out a jab and then connects with a left hook to the chin of his opponent. Martinez continues to dictate the range and the tempo of the exchanges. A knee and a left hand from Martinez land flush. Morales is trying to press the action, but Martinez is countering well. A right hand finds the mark for Morales. Martinez sticks a counter left and then throws a high kick that his foe blocks with his forearm. With about a minute remaining, Martinez executes a nicely timed level change for a double-leg takedown. Morales posts and stands against the fence, but Martinez is driving for another takedown, and he dumps Morales on the canvas. Morales reverses into top position but can’t make anything happen before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (30-27 Martinez)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (30-27 Martinez)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (30-27 Martinez)

The Official Result
Jonathan Martinez def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Angelo picks Jonathan Martinez but is hesitant because he thinks Vince Morales's pressure style could cause problems. He notes that Martinez looked terrible in his last fight against Alejandro Perez, only kicking and crumbling under pressure. However, he believes Martinez is the better overall fighter and will squeak out a win. He also mentions a prop bet on Vince Morales winning a round via a plus 3.5 round bet.

Vince Morales plus 3.5 round bet (buy a round on judge's scorecard) - available at BetOnline
"i really want to pick vince morales as an underdog here i think this fight's going to look exactly like jonathan martinez's last fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Big Brady picks Jonathan Martinez to win by decision, favoring his diverse striking (leg kicks, body kicks, head kicks) over Vince Morales. He notes Morales has a wrestling background but rarely uses it, and the fight should stay standing. He questions Martinez's chin but believes his volume and kicks will be too much. He does not like the -220 price but picks Martinez to win.

"i think martinez does win a decision but um i'll be honest i don't really like the price tag of minus 220 but i'll pick on the win and i'll pick him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody leans Martinez but is wary of his tendency to get caught in fights. He notes Martinez's leg kick game should be effective against Morales, who is susceptible to low kicks. However, he acknowledges Morales' durability and underdog success, making this a tough call.

"part part of me thinks that jay martin stays the outside chips away and i think that's what everybody's believing like most people are on the same page but uh when i try to think of who who's that guy …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)
Jonathan Martinez

The host picks Jonathan Martinez to win. He believes Martinez's kicking game, including leg kicks, body kicks, and head kicks, will be the difference. He thinks Morales has a puncher's chance but will get stuck on the end of Martinez's strikes and be outworked. He does not expect the fight to be as close as some people think.

over 2.5 rounds (part of totals parlay)
"i don't think martinez is going to be as close as people are making it out to be"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not give a clear pick. He discusses both sides, noting Martinez's leg kicks and Morales' durability and underdog value. He says he is struggling to pull the trigger on either side.

"i'm struggling to pull the trigger myself of course underdogs are gonna come through lately i've been picking underdogs it's just the ones i picked and don't come through and the ones i fade do"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru sides with Jonathan Martinez, citing his technical striking on the outside and experience. He acknowledges Vince Morales has power but notes Morales hasn't lived up to his KO reputation in the UFC. He trusts Martinez not to make a mistake and get KO'd, predicting a unanimous decision with some hairy moments.

"i'm gonna side with jonathan martinez here"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 1 52 of 146 35% 52 of 146 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Alejandro Pérez 0 74 of 144 51% 74 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 1 9 of 30 30% 9 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Alejandro Pérez 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 18 of 49 36% 18 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alejandro Pérez 0 17 of 38 44% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jonathan Martinez 0 25 of 67 37% 25 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alejandro Pérez 0 35 of 61 57% 35 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 52 of 146 35% 34 of 125 8 of 11 10 of 10 50 of 144 2 of 2 0 of 0
Alejandro Pérez 74 of 144 51% 36 of 92 23 of 34 15 of 18 72 of 139 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 9 of 30 30% 3 of 23 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alejandro Pérez 22 of 45 48% 5 of 21 10 of 16 7 of 8 20 of 40 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Martinez 18 of 49 36% 14 of 43 2 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alejandro Pérez 17 of 38 44% 6 of 24 4 of 5 7 of 9 17 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jonathan Martinez 25 of 67 37% 17 of 59 5 of 5 3 of 3 24 of 66 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alejandro Pérez 35 of 61 57% 25 of 47 9 of 13 1 of 1 35 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Big Brady picks Jonathan Martinez to win by decision. He praises Martinez's striking volume, accuracy, and takedown defense. He criticizes Perez's recent performance against a 45-year-old Johnny Eduardo, where Perez was outlanded and looked poor on the feet. Brady believes Martinez is younger, improving, and training at a good camp. He thinks Perez's takedown attempts will be ineffective and that Martinez will pick him apart on the feet.

Martinez by decision
"I gotta go martinez here i don't know what it is with perez is he on a decline you know was it the layoff but you know he was on a two-fight losing streak takes a a couple year layoff …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody picks Martinez confidently, citing his striking, takedown defense, and youth. He notes Pérez's declining chin, low volume, and poor takedown accuracy. Cody believes Martinez wins by volume and suggests watching weigh-ins due to Martinez's past weight issues.

"i think martinez wins the fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Levi picks Jonathan Martinez to win, possibly by knockout. He notes Martinez has superior striking and range control, and that Pérez has looked older and less durable. Levi warns that Martinez can be complacent and Pérez could weasel a split decision, but believes Martinez's technique and knees will be the difference. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation betting-wise.

"i'm going to go with uh martinez to knock him out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The host is confident in Martinez, citing his length, striking from the outside, and 72% takedown defense. He expects Martinez to keep the fight standing and pick apart Pérez with kicks and punches, similar to his performance against Zviad Lazishvili. He notes Pérez is flat-footed and may struggle to close distance. He predicts a decision win for Martinez.

"i like martinez here -210 is roughly accurate in terms of where i think the odds should be"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul agrees with Martinez, noting his superior striking and takedown defense. He points out Pérez's poor volume and recent KO loss. Paul thinks the line is fair and expects Martinez to win by decision or late stoppage.

"the line the line probably does make sense to be perfectly honest here yeah martinez wins likely by volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez to win, possibly by third-round finish. He criticizes Alejandro Pérez's striking, calling it terrible with poor range control, and notes that Pérez was clipped by Johnny Eduardo. He highlights Martinez's takedown defense improvements, as seen against Vince Morales, and believes Martinez will stuff takedowns and beat up Pérez on the feet. The Guru expects Martinez to dominate and potentially finish Pérez in the third round.

third round finish
"i'm gonna bet he stuffs the takedowns and beats up perez and maybe finishes him in the third round"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Oct 23, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 0 92 of 188 48% 94 of 191 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zviad Lazishvili 0 63 of 160 39% 66 of 163 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 0 23 of 46 50% 25 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zviad Lazishvili 0 19 of 46 41% 22 of 49 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:30
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 29 of 61 47% 29 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zviad Lazishvili 0 27 of 63 42% 27 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Jonathan Martinez 0 40 of 81 49% 40 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zviad Lazishvili 0 17 of 51 33% 17 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 92 of 188 48% 65 of 154 14 of 19 13 of 15 92 of 188 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zviad Lazishvili 63 of 160 39% 25 of 115 17 of 22 21 of 23 60 of 153 3 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 23 of 46 50% 11 of 32 6 of 7 6 of 7 23 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zviad Lazishvili 19 of 46 41% 7 of 31 3 of 5 9 of 10 18 of 43 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Martinez 29 of 61 47% 21 of 49 6 of 9 2 of 3 29 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zviad Lazishvili 27 of 63 42% 11 of 45 8 of 9 8 of 9 25 of 59 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jonathan Martinez 40 of 81 49% 33 of 73 2 of 3 5 of 5 40 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zviad Lazishvili 17 of 51 33% 7 of 39 6 of 8 4 of 4 17 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Cody does not make a pick due to lack of information. He notes that Lazishvili is an undefeated LFA champion with a wrestling background, but has not fought in a year and pulled out of a previous fight. Cody speculates that Martinez may open as a slight favorite, but he does not have enough data to make a confident pick.

"no no i really don't there's no price it got announced really late"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Lock picks Martinez based on striking gap and cardio. He notes Lazishvili is a poor striker and Martinez is legitimately good. He expects Martinez to win on the feet and avoid being controlled on the ground. He bet Martinez at +162 and likes the KO prop.

Martinez by KO (if available)
"i like jonathan martinez on this side of things"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul does not make a pick, noting that there are no odds yet and the fight was announced late. He defers to Cody for information.

"do you have a any sort of information to throw it at at us on this one"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Angelo picks Martinez due to age and activity, believing Aldo is older than listed and rusty after two years. He notes Martinez's leg kicks and technical striking. However, he does not bet on the fight out of respect for Aldo and hopes Aldo wins.

"I do think Jonathan Martinez wins this fight but I'm not going to bet on this fight I have too much respect and too much love for Jose Aldo"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady is torn due to Aldo's long layoff and retirement, but thinks Aldo's power and the Brazil factor could lead to a decision win. He notes Martinez's leg kicks may be less effective against Aldo. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Aldo by 'robbery decision'.

"I'm going to pick Jose Aldo here to pull off the upset."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, citing the Brazilian crowd and judging bias, Aldo's power to have singular moments, and Martinez's questionable chin. He notes Aldo's boxing activity keeps him sharp and that Martinez faces pressure in Brazil. Cody took Aldo at +145.

"I took him at plus 145 yesterday... just cuz I was like Martinez been fighting a lot of these Apex cards in front of nobody..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Jonathan Martinez. He says he doesn't want to pick against Jose Aldo in Rio due to potential weird judging, but everything points to Martinez. Vreeland notes that Aldo has surprised before, but the circumstances suggest Martinez should win.

"do you really want to pick against um Jose AO and Rio too as well like you never know oh yeah get like weird judges scorecards"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland picks Martinez by decision, citing Martinez's youth, leg kicks, and efficient grappling. He questions Aldo's motivation after retirement and notes that Aldo has not used his leg kicks or takedowns recently. He believes Martinez will win at kicking range and that Aldo's boxing focus may not be enough. He stays away from betting the moneyline due to uncertainty about which Aldo shows up.

"official pick Martinez for you Martinez decision is the official pick"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Lean picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Jeff Fox picks Jonathan Martinez but calls it a pure pass fight. He acknowledges that prime Jose Aldo was better than Martinez, but questions Aldo's motivation since he has stated he wants to box and is fighting out his UFC contract. Fox thinks if Aldo is not motivated, Martinez will make him pay. He also notes the risk of judging in Rio and Aldo's ability to surprise. Fox says he doesn't want any part of the line but thinks Martinez wins.

"I'll take Jonathan Martinez thinking Jose Aldo comes in not giving a [__] and that's why there officially for no play"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo is the Godfather of the kicking game and will shut down Martinez's kicks. He will use his speed and power advantage to crash the pocket and find Martinez's chin. Despite coming back from retirement at 37, Aldo's hand speed and power will be too much for Martinez, who is uncomfortable striking inside the pocket. Aldo knocks him out.

knockout
"look for Aldo to March down Martinez and eventually knock him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul picks Martinez, arguing Aldo gets out-struck in most fights and relies on moments. He believes Martinez's volume, speed, and leg kicks will overwhelm Aldo, who hasn't fought MMA in 10 months and looked poor in boxing. Paul sees Martinez winning by decision.

Martinez by decision
"I got to go with Jonathan Martinez... Martinez just out works him with the volume..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo, predicting a body shot finish. He believes Aldo's boxing and low-kick defense will be key, and that Martinez's recent performances show vulnerabilities. He notes Aldo's wins over Marlon Vera and Rob Font, and expects his size and experience to overwhelm Martinez.

body shot
"I'm going to say that Aldo puts him away with a body shot"