UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg Next Fight
Age 30
Height 5' 8"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 43
Height 5' 10"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Ismael Bonfim
5.51 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
3.71 SApM
65.0% Str. Def.
1.06 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Vinc Pichel
3.78 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.17 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
2.5 TD Avg
51.0% TD Acc.
31.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Ismael Bonfim - Fight History
LOSS vs Chris Padilla
KO R2 4:30 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Padilla 0 64 of 109 58% 88 of 134 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:21
Ismael Bonfim 0 42 of 84 50% 47 of 89 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Padilla 0 17 of 31 54% 38 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:23
Ismael Bonfim 0 14 of 28 50% 18 of 32 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
2 Chris Padilla 0 47 of 78 60% 50 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Ismael Bonfim 0 28 of 56 50% 29 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Padilla 64 of 109 58% 33 of 60 10 of 15 21 of 34 43 of 83 6 of 6 15 of 20
Ismael Bonfim 42 of 84 50% 27 of 68 12 of 13 3 of 3 42 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Padilla 17 of 31 54% 8 of 13 4 of 6 5 of 12 15 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ismael Bonfim 14 of 28 50% 9 of 23 4 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Padilla 47 of 78 60% 25 of 47 6 of 9 16 of 22 28 of 54 4 of 4 15 of 20
Ismael Bonfim 28 of 56 50% 18 of 45 8 of 9 2 of 2 28 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim because he is better everywhere, but he acknowledges the concern about Ismael quitting on the stool in his last fight. He argues that Ismael took a massive shot to the face and was not fully there, so he is not a quitter. He expects Ismael to win but notes that Chris Padilla is tough and a live dog.

"I'm going to be on the Ismael Bonfim side. He's just better everywhere, and as long as he did not quit on that stool, we should be good."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Big Brady thinks Bonfim is the more skilled fighter with good boxing and volume, but worries about his durability as he has been finished in all five losses. He notes Padilla is durable and has heart but doesn't wrestle enough. He favors Bonfim's striking over 15 minutes and predicts a decision win, though he thinks a finish is more likely from Padilla.

decision
"I'm going to go Bonfi here to win a decision. I don't think he's finishing Padilla."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Cody picks Bonfim but is not confident. He notes Padilla's awkward movement and counter-striking, and Bonfim's one-dimensional style and questionable cardio. He thinks Bonfim's volume and aggression might win a decision, but it's a risky bet.

"I guess I got Bonfim, but it's another fight I really don't care for."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Lucrative James leans towards Chris Padilla, though he admits he doesn't have a great read on him. He notes Padilla's dangerous striking and ability to win close fights, while Ismael Bonfim is more predictable. He expects Padilla to land better shots, possibly cutting Bonfim, and predicts a decision win. He also mentions Padilla's finishing upside via submission or doctor stoppage.

"I'm going to go with Chris Padilla. I'm not I haven't got a long breakdown for you guys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

The host thinks Bonfim has underachieved recently while Padilla has overachieved, and expects a correction. Bonfim should dictate the pace, land more damage, and win on the scorecards in deep water.

"I think Bomb Fee has underachieved in his last few fights. And on the other side, I think Padilla has overachieved. And I think we'll see the course kind of correct itself here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Paul leans Bonfim but is not betting him. He thinks Bonfim's volume could be key, but Padilla's counter-striking and Bonfim's tendency to run into shots are concerns. He mentions a small shot on Padilla KO at plus 600.

"I'm not going to be letting Ismael Bonfim ruin my week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

The Guru picks Chris Padilla as a crafty underdog. He believes Padilla's experience, reach, and versatility (elbows, kicks, spinning attacks) will trouble Ismael Bonfim, who has struggled against gritty opponents. He expects a close decision win for Padilla, 29-28.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to go with Chris Padilla. I'm gonna take a crafty underdog of Chris Padilla here."
LOSS vs Nazim Sadykhov
KO R1 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ismael Bonfim 0 26 of 42 61% 26 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nazim Sadykhov 0 13 of 46 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ismael Bonfim 0 26 of 42 61% 26 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nazim Sadykhov 0 13 of 46 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ismael Bonfim 26 of 42 61% 14 of 29 5 of 5 7 of 8 24 of 39 2 of 3 0 of 0
Nazim Sadykhov 13 of 46 28% 9 of 35 2 of 7 2 of 4 12 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ismael Bonfim 26 of 42 61% 14 of 29 5 of 5 7 of 8 24 of 39 2 of 3 0 of 0
Nazim Sadykhov 13 of 46 28% 9 of 35 2 of 7 2 of 4 12 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim over Nazim Sadykhov, noting that while Sadykhov is talented, his wins have caveats (e.g., Evan Elder was beating him before a cut, Terrence McKinney was beating him before gassing). He believes Bonfim will stay busy with striking and may mix in takedowns, and that Bonfim won't gas or get cut like Sadykhov's previous opponents.

"I think Ishmael stays busy with the Striking may or may not work in his own takedown I am going to pick Ishmael bonfim here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Big Brady picks Bonfim by decision, noting he is the better striker with good boxing and defensive responsibility. Sadykhov has volume issues and was outlanded by Evan Elder. Bonfim has takedown defense to keep it standing and a good chin. Sadykhov may land a big shot but Bonfim has never been knocked out.

"I got Bon here I think he wins this fight and wins it by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Connor picks Ismael Bonfim, agreeing with Zane that Bonfim is more technical. He notes that Sadykhov is a brute with a shallow game who breaks down when out-techniqued. Connor highlights Bonfim's arrogance as a potential weakness but believes Sadykhov's lack of horsepower means Bonfim can successfully pressure and break him. He also notes that Sadykhov will give up the initiative if pressured, unlike Santini, which favors Bonfim.

Connor notes the odds: Bonfim opened at -153 and is now -192, Sadykhov opened at +117 and is now +172. He says the odds make sense but wouldn't get them much wider, as Bonfim has lost a fight like this before.
"I think Bonfiniem is really good, but I, you know, it's all, I guess it's all going off of, well, it's not all going off that one fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Lucrative James picks Ismael Bonfim to win by decision, but admits he does not have a strong read on this fight and needs to do more tape study. He sees Bonfim as the more technical striker with better leg kicks and a well-rounded game, while Sadykhov is a brawler with power and durability. He thinks Bonfim's experience and technicality will allow him to outpoint Sadykhov over three rounds, but acknowledges Sadykhov could land a big shot or win a war. He is not confident enough to recommend a bet.

"I'm going to pick bom them in this fight I think that he's going to win a decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2025 (fight day)
Ismael Bonfim

Bonfim has the experience advantage and more to bring to the table. As long as Sadykhov doesn't land a big power shot, Bonfim dictates pace and pressure and wins on the scorecards.

"I believe that Bonfim will showcase that experience advantage here against Nazim Sadykhov... Bonfim should be able to dictate the pace and pressure of this fight and end up winning it on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

The MMA Guru picks Ismael Bonfim over Nazim Sadykhov, noting Bonfim's slickness and more options. He criticizes Sadykhov for letting fights get scrappy and lacking ability to force things. He believes Bonfim's time off has allowed improvement and he will deliver, though he jokes about Bonfim's reaction to his brother's potential loss.

"I'm gonna go with ishmail bum furm here over nazim sadikov"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Zane picks Ismael Bonfim, citing Bonfim's superior technical skills in striking, wrestling, and grappling compared to Sadykhov. He notes that Sadykhov's game breaks down when faced with better technique, as he only wants to fight one way. Zane acknowledges Bonfim's tendency to make arrogant decisions and give up positions, but believes Sadykhov lacks the horsepower to capitalize like Santini did. He also points out that Sadykhov is more of an opportunist on the ground, not a constrictor, reducing the risk of Bonfim getting caught.

Zane notes the odds: Bonfim opened at -153 and is now -192, Sadykhov opened at +117 and is now +172. He says the odds make sense but wouldn't get them much wider, as Bonfim has lost a fight like this before.
"I think I'll take Bonfiniem too, but yeah, and that is different between him."
WIN vs Vinc Pichel
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ismael Bonfim 0 111 of 216 51% 112 of 217 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Vinc Pichel 0 61 of 142 42% 64 of 147 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ismael Bonfim 0 34 of 66 51% 34 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Vinc Pichel 0 18 of 47 38% 18 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:03
2 Ismael Bonfim 0 36 of 75 48% 36 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vinc Pichel 0 22 of 54 40% 22 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Ismael Bonfim 0 41 of 75 54% 42 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:28
Vinc Pichel 0 21 of 41 51% 24 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ismael Bonfim 111 of 216 51% 80 of 176 13 of 20 18 of 20 107 of 209 2 of 4 2 of 3
Vinc Pichel 61 of 142 42% 26 of 93 14 of 24 21 of 25 60 of 140 0 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ismael Bonfim 34 of 66 51% 19 of 47 2 of 4 13 of 15 34 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vinc Pichel 18 of 47 38% 5 of 29 5 of 10 8 of 8 18 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ismael Bonfim 36 of 75 48% 29 of 66 4 of 6 3 of 3 36 of 74 0 of 1 0 of 0
Vinc Pichel 22 of 54 40% 9 of 37 3 of 5 10 of 12 22 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ismael Bonfim 41 of 75 54% 32 of 63 7 of 10 2 of 2 37 of 69 2 of 3 2 of 3
Vinc Pichel 21 of 41 51% 12 of 27 6 of 9 3 of 5 20 of 39 0 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Angelo is confident in Bonfim, citing his youth, power, and aggressive style against the 41-year-old Pichel who hasn't fought in two years. He references the trend of older fighters getting finished at UFC Vegas 91. He advises betting early before odds move.

"Ishmael bonfim is the pick and if you want to bet on him you need to do it now before the odds take over"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Big Brady highlights Bonfim's youth and striking advantage, noting Pichel's age (41) and long layoff as major concerns. He believes Bonfim will stuff takedowns and dominate on the feet, leading to a one-sided decision. He acknowledges Pichel's submission threat but doubts he can implement it.

"I'm taking Bonfim to win this fight by a pretty one-sided decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Cody picks Bonfim, citing his sharp striking, takedown defense, and cardio. He notes Pichel is 41, inactive, and has no submission wins. Cody expects Bonfim to win, possibly by decision or late finish.

"I just feel like Bonfim is way sharper..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Daniel Vreeland picks Bonfim by decision, citing his youth, volume striking, and experience despite his age. He notes that Pichel is durable and has low mileage for his age, but Bonfim's boxing and takedown defense should allow him to win minutes on the feet. He believes Bonfim's finishing equity is overrated and that a decision is likely.

Bonfim by decision
"bonim by decision I think he's got some value"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Bonfim stumbled in his last fight against Benoit Saint-Denis but is expected to have a better showing against the 41-year-old Pichel, who has been two years away from the cage. Bonfim is the slicker striker and can stay competitive in grappling if Pichel takes it there. His striking will start to chip away at Pichel and allow him to find a finish in the second or third round.

finish in second or third round
"I think bomfim is the Slicker Striker and can stay in competitive in the grappling R should Pelle look to take it there but I think that bomb F Slicker striking approach will start to C CCH up to Pelle …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Paul picks Bonfim, highlighting his explosive striking and takedown defense. He notes Pichel's inactivity and age are concerns. Paul expects Bonfim to win but acknowledges Pichel's grit could make it competitive.

"I think he's good... he looked really good in the contender series..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

The MMA Guru confidently picks Ismael Bonfim, predicting a first-round TKO. He expects Bonfim to push Pichel against the cage and bait him with feints, while noting Pichel's age (41) and over two years of inactivity as key factors. He also mentions Bonfim's good jiu-jitsu and the favorable matchup.

TKO in the first round
"ishmail Bon ferm's gonna go out there and get a TKO in the first round"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:48 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Benoît Saint Denis 0 14 of 24 58% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Ismael Bonfim 0 13 of 33 39% 35 of 58 2 of 7 28% 2 0 2:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Benoît Saint Denis 0 14 of 24 58% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Ismael Bonfim 0 13 of 33 39% 35 of 58 2 of 7 28% 2 0 2:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Benoît Saint Denis 14 of 24 58% 9 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 18 5 of 5 1 of 1
Ismael Bonfim 13 of 33 39% 3 of 18 10 of 15 0 of 0 11 of 29 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Benoît Saint Denis 14 of 24 58% 9 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 18 5 of 5 1 of 1
Ismael Bonfim 13 of 33 39% 3 of 18 10 of 15 0 of 0 11 of 29 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim due to his incredible power and impressive debut. However, he advises caution because Bonfim is still unproven and Saint Denis is a tough opponent with good wrestling. He notes Bonfim's boxing and BJJ but questions his cardio and takedown defense. He calls it a low confidence pick.

"the pick here is going to be a bonfin because of his incredible power and Saint Denny gets hit but I advise all of you to be very very careful here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Big Brady picks Ismael Bonfim to win by third-round knockout. He believes Bonfim is the much better striker with power, and though his striking defense is a liability, Saint Denis is hittable and has been finished before. He notes Bonfim's takedown defense has improved, so Saint Denis won't be able to grapple. He expects Bonfim to land repeatedly and get a late finish.

third round knockout
"I like Bond theme here I think Bon FEMA actually probably knocks out Saint Denis and I think it's probably late in the fight second or third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Cody is high on Bonfim, calling him the real deal with good movement, power, accuracy, and solid takedown defense. He notes Bonfim's wins over tough competition on Contender Series and Terrence McKinney. He sees Saint Denis as an all-action brawler who is hittable and has a good chin but will be overwhelmed by Bonfim's precision. Cody expects Bonfim to win by knockout or clear decision.

Fight of the Night candidate
"I think bomb theme is going to dish it out and Benoit saying to me for as tough as he is is gonna take it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Daniel confidently picks Bonfim, citing his polished boxing, feints, timing, and well-rounded game. He notes Saint Denis is tough and durable but his striking is less polished, and Bonfim is comfortable on the ground as well. He believes the striking gap is significant and that Bonfim covers Saint Denis across the board. He missed the opening line (-250) and won't bet at -310, but expects Bonfim to win.

missed the line at -250; Bonfim minus 310
"I missed the line but he is my pick win this fight and I'm not sure if I even want to call it a dog or pass situation because I just think stylistically he has them covered"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)

James says he has not taped this fight yet and does not have an opinion. He notes that Benoît Saint Denis is tough but may be outmatched, and that Ismael Bonfim is favored on the feet. He suggests the over might be an angle but needs to do more tape.

over 2.5 rounds, fight goes to decision
"I do not have an opinion because I haven't taped this yet."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Paul thinks the line is a bit out of hand but still picks Bonfim. He notes Saint Denis is capable of making it a war and has value at +260, but Bonfim's skills are superior. Paul mentions the judges can be unpredictable, but Bonfim should win if it's close.

"I think Ben wants to knee is capable of at least making this like an absolute War plus 260"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

The Guru picks Ismael Bonfim, calling it a no-brainer. He highlights Bonfim's impressive win over Terence McKinney via flying knee KO and his strong grappling and takedown defense. He predicts Bonfim will stuff Saint Denis's takedowns and get a second-round TKO, as Saint Denis will hesitate and get broken down.

second round TKO
"I'm gonna go with Ishmael bun firm over Benoit Saint Denise here... another no-brainer in my opinion"
KO (flying knee) R2 2:17 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ismael Bonfim 1 34 of 49 69% 38 of 53 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:48
Terrance McKinney 0 14 of 49 28% 20 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ismael Bonfim 0 17 of 22 77% 21 of 26 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:47
Terrance McKinney 0 7 of 19 36% 13 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:11
2 Ismael Bonfim 1 17 of 27 62% 17 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Terrance McKinney 0 7 of 30 23% 7 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ismael Bonfim 34 of 49 69% 16 of 30 16 of 17 2 of 2 24 of 39 10 of 10 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 14 of 49 28% 10 of 43 4 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 45 0 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ismael Bonfim 17 of 22 77% 5 of 10 10 of 10 2 of 2 8 of 13 9 of 9 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 7 of 19 36% 4 of 15 3 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 16 0 of 1 2 of 2
2 Ismael Bonfim 17 of 27 62% 11 of 20 6 of 7 0 of 0 16 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 7 of 30 23% 6 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady picks McKinney to win by first-round knockout, noting McKinney's incredible power and finishing ability. He acknowledges Bonfim has patched his submission defense and is well-rounded, but McKinney hits like a truck and has good wrestling. He thinks Bonfim will have to walk through fire and if the fight gets past one and a half rounds, Bonfim likely finishes McKinney. He's not betting but expects violence.

first round knockout, under 1.5 rounds
"I'm gonna take McKinney here to win in the first two minutes and 30 seconds and I'm gonna take in the win by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Cody picks Ismael Bonfim as a dog, noting his cardio, durability, and well-rounded skills. He says McKinney is explosive but fades under adversity and has poor durability. He thinks Bonfim can weather the early storm and take over as McKinney gasses. He mentions Bonfim's win over Nariman Abbasov as a sign of his quality. He says this is his second underdog pick.

mentions McKinney's tendency to gas; says Bonfim has good cardio
"I could take bomb female actually Terence McKinney is extremely talented I think we all know that about it the guy is very fast very athletic massively explosive huge huge power"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Connor also picks Bonfim, citing McKinney's inability to fight past the first round. He notes Bonfim is a clean puncher with solid grappling and has never been knocked out. McKinney's recklessness and poor cardio are key factors.

"I think I'm going to pick Ismael Bonfim."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Paul picks Terrance McKinney, noting his explosiveness and power. He says McKinney will likely finish early, but acknowledges the risk of him gassing. He says he's not betting this fight but picks McKinney. He mentions McKinney's under machine reputation and that the under 1.5 rounds is juiced.

mentions under 1.5 rounds at -225; says McKinney is an under machine
"I'll pick Terence McKinney but yeah this is more of a yeah they're bet McKinney pre-flop or you wait for McKinney to to blow his load"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The Guru picks McKinney but acknowledges Bonfim is dangerous. He trusts McKinney's weird wiry speed and power in the early round, noting how he nearly put away Dober quickly. McKinney has a wrestling background that is often overlooked. The Guru predicts a first-round finish, possibly by submission after hurting Bonfim on the feet. However, he warns that if the fight goes past the first round without Bonfim being hurt, Bonfim may take over.

first round finish
"I got a side with that first round finishing ability of Terence McKinney but I will say if this goes past the first round and the bonfirm hasn't been hurt ... switch your money up and go on bomb firm"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Zane picks Bonfim because McKinney burns out quickly if he doesn't get an early finish. Bonfim is durable, solid, and has never been knocked out. He notes McKinney's style is unsustainable and he loses after the first round. Bonfim's experience and ability to survive should lead to a win.

"If he can survive for five minutes against Terrence McKinney as a newcomer, there's a real good chance that he will have enough left in the tank to win."
Vinc Pichel - Fight History
LOSS vs Rafa García
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafa García 0 64 of 120 53% 76 of 136 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:15
Vinc Pichel 0 79 of 182 43% 88 of 191 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafa García 0 12 of 24 50% 19 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:06
Vinc Pichel 0 13 of 38 34% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafa García 0 21 of 49 42% 24 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:23
Vinc Pichel 0 32 of 70 45% 32 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Rafa García 0 31 of 47 65% 33 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:46
Vinc Pichel 0 34 of 74 45% 35 of 75 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafa García 64 of 120 53% 49 of 102 12 of 14 3 of 4 59 of 114 4 of 5 1 of 1
Vinc Pichel 79 of 182 43% 32 of 116 27 of 43 20 of 23 74 of 174 4 of 7 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafa García 12 of 24 50% 7 of 17 3 of 4 2 of 3 11 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Vinc Pichel 13 of 38 34% 7 of 30 2 of 3 4 of 5 12 of 36 0 of 1 1 of 1
2 Rafa García 21 of 49 42% 16 of 44 4 of 4 1 of 1 21 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vinc Pichel 32 of 70 45% 12 of 43 13 of 19 7 of 8 29 of 67 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Rafa García 31 of 47 65% 26 of 41 5 of 6 0 of 0 27 of 42 3 of 4 1 of 1
Vinc Pichel 34 of 74 45% 13 of 43 12 of 21 9 of 10 33 of 71 1 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafa Garcia vs. Vinc Pichel
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-485), Pichel (+370)

Round 1
Twelve years separate the next two competitors, with the younger man a heavy betting favorite. Garcia (16-4, 4-4 UFC) gets a huge pop from the crowd as the first Mexican-born athlete to hit the stage today, while the leisurely paced Pichel (14-4, 7-4 UFC) is showered in boos. The lightweights with a fairly similar amount of combat experience touch gloves before referee Raul Porrata. Pichel keeps his distance early, parrying any incoming fire and letting the energy in favor of Garcia wash over them both. Garcia breaks the silence with a huge overhand right and rips a left to the liver. Pichel responds with a left hook that makes the Mexican fighter back off for a moment, and Garcia measures him with a thudding right hand that makes Pichel have to blink it out repeatedly. Garcia crowds him with a pair of hooks, and he swats away a head kick. Garcia crashes through a low kick to hurl punches, and Pichel keeps a wide berth and stabs out a front kick. Garcia comes up short with haymakers, allowing the elder Pichel to potshot him from a safe distance. When Pichel kicks low, Garcia wings a right hand over the top. Pichel fires back with a vengeance, and Garcia shrugs it off and stays close in front of him but not too close. Garcia scores a single low kick and is jabbed back, and he raises his guard in the nick of time to block an overhand right. Garcia swings wide to the body, forcing Pichel to ricochet off the wall, and he hammers the front leg with a kick. Pichel loads up with a body kick, and Garcia smiles at him and continues to crowd him. Garcia pushes a front kick out of the way to crowd the older fighter, pressing him against the wall while stomping on his toes. Garcia lifts Pichel’s legs up and is about to deposit him to the ground, but Pichel regains his balance. Perhaps in a poor bit of decisionmaking, Pichel spins for a back elbow while tightly pressed to his foe, and this allows Garcia to hit a clean double on him. Garcia rides out the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
The athletes get right back down to business, trading leather early and often. Pichel sneaks in a right hand and slips to the side, and he dips to fire off an uppercut and jogs away to reset. Pichel’s stance switches and awkward movement prevents Garcia from blitzing him on the regular, and he keeps his head on a swivel to not get caught with anything flush. Garcia nevertheless walks him down and blasts him in the face with a crisp right hand, and then chains two more fists behind it. Pichel flashes out his jab, pop pop bang, to keep Garcia from going at him. Pichel pushes off while trying to push his foe’s arm out of the way, and his thumb slides deep into Garcia’s eye socket. Pichel immediately apologizes before Porrata gets between them, and he gives Garcia all the time he needs to recover. Garcia takes it, accepts Pichel’s fervent apology and gets back to walking the aging fighter down. Pichel uses his knee to frame off, and he strings a few punches together behind it. Pichel tosses up a head kick that is blocked in time, and he probes out a right hand before getting his head snapped back with a one-two. Pichel tries to jump his way forward, and he pushes off Garcia’s face and slams his shin on Garcia’s calf. Garcia grimaces and wraps Pichel up in hopes of taking him down. Pichel leans against the wall to keep himself upright, and he postures off and breaks free, where he puts punches and kicks together in rapid succession. Pichel fakes to the body to open up a head shot, and Garcia can only swing big right hands back at him. A few of those get through, and Pichel beans him with a counter overhand right to make him think twice about entering the pocket with his hands low. Pichel comes up swinging with a huge uppercut, and he hand-fights to parry most of the blows aimed at him. Pichel jabs to the head and body, and he splits the guard with a front kick, toes extended towards the target. Garcia lumbers forward swinging heavy leather, and Pichel skirts to the slide and flicks out a few low kicks to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pichel
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pichel
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pichel

Round 3
Pichel is fired up to start up the last round, and he channels that energy with frenetic punches and kicks that stop Garcia from getting through to him. Pichel strings a few punches together up top, and Garcia clutches his eye as if he was poked. Pichel claims it was a closed fist that did the damage, and he unloads with flying fists until Garcia steels himself and comes back out swinging. Pichel counters the flailing strikes, but he is taking shots to the body and taking heavy breaths. Garcia continues to put everything behind every one of his swings, while Pichel is more than content to jab and prod. When Garcia looks to charge, Pichel pushes him back with jabs and front kicks, but Garcia decides to pour it on and tags Pichel a few times. Pichel rebounds off the fencing and uses his push kick to redden up Garcia’s midsection. Pichel probers out with straight punches until getting tagged, and he starts swinging back with arc on his punches when not mixing in his front kick. Pichel further keeps things interesting by shooting for a takedown, and Garcia just stands before him and smiles at him. A Pichel front kick bumps the cup, and Garcia wants to keep going so it goes uncalled. Pichel loads up on body kicks and walks through three left hands, kicking Garcia constantly while keeping his distance. The leg kicks to the thigh and calf keep landing for “From Hell,” until Garcia is sick of taking them and just lifts Pichel up and deposits him down to the mat like a sack of potatoes. Pichel scoots his way towards the wall in hopes of walking up it, while Garcia tries to smother him and threaten with an arm-triangle choke. Pichel turns to his knees and stands, and Garcia slugs him in the face with numerous unanswered right hands. Pichel frees himself with seconds to go, and he lets Garcia have it with all his remaining energy. Punches, kicks and knees fly every which way until the final horn blares, signaling an end to what turned into an entertaining scrap.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (29-28 Garcia)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (29-28 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (29-28 Garcia)

The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Vinc Pichel via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rafa García

Connor picks García, noting his high-output, new-school wrestle-boxing style will overwhelm the aging Pichel. He acknowledges Pichel's toughness and low kicks as potential wrinkles but believes García's pace and boxing will be too much. He is surprised by the wide odds, given García's loss to Chris Gruetzemacher.

"I think Garcia is tailor made to outwork and overwhelm Pichel. Pichel is slow enough that he just doesn't get to do a lot of the stuff he wants to do anymore."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rafa García

Zane picks García, agreeing that his pace and pressure will be decisive. He notes Pichel's old-school style and lack of speed, comparing him to an aged Jan Błachowicz. Zane thinks García's boxing and wrestling defense are solid, and that Pichel's low kicks are a minor threat.

"I think Garcia is tailor made to outwork and overwhelm Pichel."
LOSS vs Ismael Bonfim
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ismael Bonfim 0 111 of 216 51% 112 of 217 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Vinc Pichel 0 61 of 142 42% 64 of 147 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ismael Bonfim 0 34 of 66 51% 34 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Vinc Pichel 0 18 of 47 38% 18 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:03
2 Ismael Bonfim 0 36 of 75 48% 36 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vinc Pichel 0 22 of 54 40% 22 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Ismael Bonfim 0 41 of 75 54% 42 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:28
Vinc Pichel 0 21 of 41 51% 24 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ismael Bonfim 111 of 216 51% 80 of 176 13 of 20 18 of 20 107 of 209 2 of 4 2 of 3
Vinc Pichel 61 of 142 42% 26 of 93 14 of 24 21 of 25 60 of 140 0 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ismael Bonfim 34 of 66 51% 19 of 47 2 of 4 13 of 15 34 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vinc Pichel 18 of 47 38% 5 of 29 5 of 10 8 of 8 18 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ismael Bonfim 36 of 75 48% 29 of 66 4 of 6 3 of 3 36 of 74 0 of 1 0 of 0
Vinc Pichel 22 of 54 40% 9 of 37 3 of 5 10 of 12 22 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ismael Bonfim 41 of 75 54% 32 of 63 7 of 10 2 of 2 37 of 69 2 of 3 2 of 3
Vinc Pichel 21 of 41 51% 12 of 27 6 of 9 3 of 5 20 of 39 0 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Angelo is confident in Bonfim, citing his youth, power, and aggressive style against the 41-year-old Pichel who hasn't fought in two years. He references the trend of older fighters getting finished at UFC Vegas 91. He advises betting early before odds move.

"Ishmael bonfim is the pick and if you want to bet on him you need to do it now before the odds take over"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Big Brady highlights Bonfim's youth and striking advantage, noting Pichel's age (41) and long layoff as major concerns. He believes Bonfim will stuff takedowns and dominate on the feet, leading to a one-sided decision. He acknowledges Pichel's submission threat but doubts he can implement it.

"I'm taking Bonfim to win this fight by a pretty one-sided decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Cody picks Bonfim, citing his sharp striking, takedown defense, and cardio. He notes Pichel is 41, inactive, and has no submission wins. Cody expects Bonfim to win, possibly by decision or late finish.

"I just feel like Bonfim is way sharper..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Daniel Vreeland picks Bonfim by decision, citing his youth, volume striking, and experience despite his age. He notes that Pichel is durable and has low mileage for his age, but Bonfim's boxing and takedown defense should allow him to win minutes on the feet. He believes Bonfim's finishing equity is overrated and that a decision is likely.

Bonfim by decision
"bonim by decision I think he's got some value"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Bonfim stumbled in his last fight against Benoit Saint-Denis but is expected to have a better showing against the 41-year-old Pichel, who has been two years away from the cage. Bonfim is the slicker striker and can stay competitive in grappling if Pichel takes it there. His striking will start to chip away at Pichel and allow him to find a finish in the second or third round.

finish in second or third round
"I think bomfim is the Slicker Striker and can stay in competitive in the grappling R should Pelle look to take it there but I think that bomb F Slicker striking approach will start to C CCH up to Pelle …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Paul picks Bonfim, highlighting his explosive striking and takedown defense. He notes Pichel's inactivity and age are concerns. Paul expects Bonfim to win but acknowledges Pichel's grit could make it competitive.

"I think he's good... he looked really good in the contender series..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

The MMA Guru confidently picks Ismael Bonfim, predicting a first-round TKO. He expects Bonfim to push Pichel against the cage and bait him with feints, while noting Pichel's age (41) and over two years of inactivity as key factors. He also mentions Bonfim's good jiu-jitsu and the favorable matchup.

TKO in the first round
"ishmail Bon ferm's gonna go out there and get a TKO in the first round"
LOSS vs Mark Madsen
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mark Madsen 0 68 of 123 55% 88 of 144 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:48
Vinc Pichel 0 39 of 87 44% 57 of 110 3 of 3 100% 0 0 5:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mark Madsen 0 24 of 50 48% 24 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Vinc Pichel 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:25
2 Mark Madsen 0 22 of 41 53% 25 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Vinc Pichel 0 13 of 34 38% 15 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:48
3 Mark Madsen 0 22 of 32 68% 39 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Vinc Pichel 0 8 of 15 53% 24 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mark Madsen 68 of 123 55% 32 of 78 21 of 30 15 of 15 53 of 106 10 of 11 5 of 6
Vinc Pichel 39 of 87 44% 27 of 75 1 of 1 11 of 11 32 of 78 3 of 5 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mark Madsen 24 of 50 48% 7 of 25 8 of 16 9 of 9 21 of 46 2 of 3 1 of 1
Vinc Pichel 18 of 38 47% 9 of 29 0 of 0 9 of 9 18 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mark Madsen 22 of 41 53% 11 of 29 7 of 8 4 of 4 18 of 37 4 of 4 0 of 0
Vinc Pichel 13 of 34 38% 10 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 2
3 Mark Madsen 22 of 32 68% 14 of 24 6 of 6 2 of 2 14 of 23 4 of 4 4 of 5
Vinc Pichel 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 9 2 of 4 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Mark Madsen

Angelo picks Mark Madsen despite being surprised that Pichel is the favorite. He notes Madsen's Olympic wrestling background and improved striking, as shown in his win over Clay Guida. He expects Madsen to use takedowns similar to Gregor Gillespie's approach, though he acknowledges Pichel's movement could trouble Madsen on the feet.

Moneyline bet on Madsen; odds are confusing but he likes the bet.
"i like mark here i think the odds uh are a little wide they're definitely confusing me i'm gonna go moneyline bet on mark matson"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Mark Madsen

Big Brady picks Mark Madsen to win a close decision, likely split. He notes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling should dominate early rounds, but his cardio is a concern as he faded in the third round against Austin Hubbard. Pichel has terrible takedown defense (25%) but is tough and wins the third round. Brady thinks Madsen edges the second round to win.

"give me mark mattis matson to win this one i think it's probably going to be a split as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Vinc Pichel

Cody is on the same page as Paul, picking Pichel. He notes Madsen's wrestling is explosive but lacks top control, leading to gassing. Cody points out Madsen's susceptibility to leg kicks and Pichel's nasty low kick. He thinks Pichel's chaos and pressure will break Madsen, similar to how he broke Austin Hubbard. Cody expects Pichel to win, possibly by decision but hopes for a third-round finish.

"yeah i'm largely on the exact same page as you i got vince michelle pre-fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Mark Madsen

Levi believes Mark Madsen is improving with each fight, showing better cardio and striking. He notes Vinc Pichel's takedown defense is not great and that Madsen's wrestling should be a big advantage. He thinks the fight should be a pick'em, so at plus money he is taking Madsen to win a decision by securing the first two rounds.

"i took mark madsen at plus 118 i beat that line"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Vinc Pichel

I think Pichel is the much better striker and has improving wrestling. Madsen needs to get an early finish or he will fade. Pichel has a good gas tank and will wear on Madsen. I see Pichel finding a knockout later in the fight, likely in the third round.

"I do think he goes out there and has a solid enough performance here against Madsen puts his strikes together finds that knockout probably later in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Vinc Pichel

Paul is confident in Pichel, having already bet him at -122 and -127. He notes Madsen's poor cardio and inability to hold opponents down, as seen against Clay Guida. Paul emphasizes Pichel's leg kicks targeting Madsen's lead leg, which Madsen leaves exposed. He predicts Pichel wins by TKO in round 3, as Madsen fades. Paul also likes Pichel round 3 at +1600.

Pichel round 3 +1600, Pichel by TKO
"i think vince michelle wins i've got him on the money line already i'm going to be adding a little bit more"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Vinc Pichel

The MMA Guru picks Vinc Pichel, unimpressed by Mark Madsen's grappling. He expects Madsen to win the first round via takedowns but fade, with Pichel's cardio and ability to get up leading to a 29-28 decision. He notes that Pichel beat Austin Hubbard more convincingly than Madsen did.

"i'm gonna go vince paquel over mark madsen i ain't impressed by mark madsen"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vinc Pichel 0 71 of 160 44% 96 of 187 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:29
Austin Hubbard 0 56 of 152 36% 66 of 171 4 of 7 57% 0 0 2:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vinc Pichel 0 21 of 55 38% 27 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Austin Hubbard 0 22 of 58 37% 24 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
2 Vinc Pichel 0 27 of 63 42% 34 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:08
Austin Hubbard 0 19 of 52 36% 24 of 58 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:51
3 Vinc Pichel 0 23 of 42 54% 35 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:08
Austin Hubbard 0 15 of 42 35% 18 of 52 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vinc Pichel 71 of 160 44% 28 of 108 16 of 23 27 of 29 59 of 145 10 of 12 2 of 3
Austin Hubbard 56 of 152 36% 29 of 110 17 of 31 10 of 11 51 of 145 4 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vinc Pichel 21 of 55 38% 4 of 34 5 of 8 12 of 13 20 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 22 of 58 37% 9 of 38 8 of 15 5 of 5 22 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vinc Pichel 27 of 63 42% 11 of 44 8 of 10 8 of 9 24 of 59 3 of 4 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 19 of 52 36% 10 of 36 5 of 11 4 of 5 16 of 49 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Vinc Pichel 23 of 42 54% 13 of 30 3 of 5 7 of 7 15 of 32 6 of 7 2 of 3
Austin Hubbard 15 of 42 35% 10 of 36 4 of 5 1 of 1 13 of 38 1 of 3 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Vinc Pichel

Big Brady picks Vinc Pichel, citing his grappling advantage. He notes Pichel averages 3.83 takedowns per 15 minutes with 60% accuracy, and believes he will win the grappling exchanges. He is concerned about Pichel's age (38) but thinks his gas tank is fine. He predicts a decision win.

"i'm going to take vince michelle to win i think he's going to win the grappling exchanges"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vinc Pichel

Cody picks Pichel, having already bet him. He highlights Pichel's cardio, top control, and BJJ black belt, and notes Hubbard's tendency to fade in later rounds. He believes Pichel's wrestling and pressure will be key, and mentions the value on Pichel by submission at 20-1.

Pichel by submission 20-1 (DraftKings); also +575 at another book
"i've already made a bet on it... i think we see a lot of cage control for vince i think we see a lot of you know pushing forward hopefully the takedowns are there"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vinc Pichel

Pichel is a grappler who should have success taking Hubbard down, especially by catching Hubbard's kicks. Hubbard has only fought grapplers recently and has struggled. Pichel's age (38) is a concern but he has low fight mileage. I'm picking Pichel by decision, but the moneyline at even odds is fine.

Pichel by decision (+140)
"i do like vince michelle on the spot don't look too hard at that 38 year old uh spot that he's at right now fight mouse is not that high"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Vinc Pichel

Paul picks Pichel, citing his strong top game and ability to grind out wins. He notes Pichel's slow starts but finishing strong, and Hubbard's susceptibility to takedowns. He mentions Pichel's training at Factory X and believes his cardio will hold up.

Pichel by submission 20-1 is egregious, worth a sprinkle
"i'm gonna have faith in my boy he hasn't done you wrong so far and i do think he's live in the spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Austin Hubbard

The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard as an underdog. He cites Hubbard's takedown defense and volume striking as keys. He notes Pichel is 38 and coming off a year layoff, while Hubbard is younger and has shown improvement. He expects Hubbard to win the later rounds via decision, possibly 29-28.

"i'm gonna go with austin hubbard over vince pacquiao in all honesty"
WIN vs Jim Miller
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Aug 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vinc Pichel 0 14 of 39 35% 26 of 57 2 of 2 100% 2 1 5:10
Jim Miller 0 41 of 78 52% 84 of 124 3 of 5 60% 0 0 6:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vinc Pichel 0 11 of 29 37% 11 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:16
Jim Miller 0 12 of 24 50% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Vinc Pichel 0 2 of 4 50% 8 of 10 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
Jim Miller 0 12 of 23 52% 39 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:29
3 Vinc Pichel 0 1 of 6 16% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:47
Jim Miller 0 17 of 31 54% 26 of 42 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vinc Pichel 14 of 39 35% 6 of 30 5 of 6 3 of 3 7 of 27 4 of 6 3 of 6
Jim Miller 41 of 78 52% 27 of 64 11 of 11 3 of 3 15 of 35 9 of 11 17 of 32
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vinc Pichel 11 of 29 37% 4 of 21 4 of 5 3 of 3 7 of 24 4 of 5 0 of 0
Jim Miller 12 of 24 50% 5 of 17 4 of 4 3 of 3 10 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Vinc Pichel 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3
Jim Miller 12 of 23 52% 11 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 20
3 Vinc Pichel 1 of 6 16% 0 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 3
Jim Miller 17 of 31 54% 11 of 25 6 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 11 7 of 8 7 of 12
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Vinc Pichel

Round 1
Competing atop the preliminary card is the most active fighter in UFC history in Miller (32-14, 1 NC; 21-13, 1 NC UFC) against “From Hell” Pichel (12-2, 5-2 UFC) in the lightweight division. Pichel made his UFC debut in 2012 and this will be his eighth fight with the promotion, while Miller will have competed 23 times in that same span when the night ends. Referee Herb Dean will keep a watchful eye on this preliminary headliner, and there is a touch of gloves before these two get down to it. The two try to find their way in, and Pichel lands first with a left hand. Miller charges back at him and catches him with a left, and nearly clips him with a knee up the middle. Pichel fires back, and lands a body kick. Miller again races towards him with a string of punches, and he ends a combination with a hard leg kick. A sharp uppercut stings Pichel, and Miller tosses a low kick that grazes the cup and halts the action briefly. Miller takes a shot to the cup as well but he fights through it as they swing for the bleachers. Miller walks him down and clinches up, landing a knee to the torso before trying to trip Pichel’s legs out. Miller commits to a single but Pichel keeps them upright, so Miller drills him in the breadbasket with a knee. Miller hacks at him with elbows and pair of knees until Pichel breaks free. Miller flips up a head kick and Pichel blocks it without countering. Miller walks him down with another head kick and a low kick, and Pichel’s hands are by his waist possibly to stop a takedown. The hand position does not help him stuff the takedown that soon follows, and Miller instantly takes Pichel’s back to get his hooks in. “From Hell” tries with all his might to lean to the fence to try to stave off the submission, and he nearly spins out but almost falls into submission danger. Pichel turns about so Miller switches to a guillotine choke, which he uses to take top position as Pichel holds on tight. Miller rolls and traps the calf of his opponent for a calf slicer, but time expires before he can secure a tap.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 2
They touch gloves at the start of the round, and Pichel rushes in with a head kick but Miller eats it like a sandwich and hits a takedown with relative ease. Miller works him from the top while Pichel scoots back to the fence, and Miller takes the moment to get to half guard and stand up to land some strikes. Pichel kicks off and just misses an upkick, and springs back up to mash Miller against the cage. Pichel changes levels to get Miller down, and his neck is quickly in danger for a guillotine choke. “From Hell” calmly pulls his neck free, and he keeps Miller pressed to the wall while Miller throws his legs up for some submission. Pichel wrests his arms free from what looks like a double armbar, and he steps over into half guard while Miller keeps attacking. Pichel steps over and Miller latches on to a heel hook, and Pichel turns out and nails Miller with a pair of heavy elbows to step into half guard again. Pichel sets up an arm-triangle choke and swipes at Miller’s forehead with a few elbows as he grinds him out. Pichel postures up and lands a punch, but Miller ties him up again. Pichel stays heavy and keeps Miller trapped on his back, landing sporadic punches and racking up control time. Pichel gets off a few more punches as the horn sounds to wrap up the second frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pichel
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pichel
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pichel

Round 3
The two lightweights greet with one final glove touch, and Pichel rings home a right hand and a body kick before setting up a takedown. Miller tries to defend against it, but he falls to his back as Pichel fishes for a kimura. Miller yanks his arm free, but in the process, Pichel advances to side control and drops down a few elbows as Miller attempts to roll for a leg lock. Pichel steps out of it and circles around to take Miller’s back, landing a few punches and securing his hooks. Miller twists and turns as Pichel hunts for a rear-naked choke, and “A-10” powers his way up and around to go after a guillotine choke while Pichel is on his knees. A wild scramble puts Pichel on his back as Miller starts to put a few punches together. Pichel walks up the cage wall to his knee, and Miller frees a trapped leg to take Pichel’s back and drags him down. Pichel rolls along with Miller in that instance to buck Miller off, and Pichel now has Miller’s back. The exciting grappling continues as they both keep scrambling and get back to their feet. Miller presses him to the fence as he looks for a single, allowing Pichel to knee him in the chin. Another knee from Pichel backs Miller out of the clinch, and Pichel walks forward to land some punches before changing levels for a single leg takedown. Miller stuffs it and gets kneed several times. When they separate, Pichel boots him in the head, and Miller shakes off the cobwebs, pulls guard and cinches up a guillotine choke. It is incredibly tight, and Pichel is in a bad way, but he grits it out and pulls his neck out of the rough position. Pichel lands a few hard shots on top to bloody up his opponent, and the final horn concludes this exciting lightweight scrap.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pichel (29-28 Pichel)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pichel (29-28 Pichel)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pichel (29-28 Pichel)

The Official Result
Vinc Pichel def. Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady expects Jim Miller to get the fight to the ground and submit Pichel in the first round. He notes Pichel's poor takedown defense and thinks Miller is dangerous early. He sees value on Miller as an underdog.

first round submission, underdog pick
"give me jim miller first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Daniel Levi leans toward Jim Miller. He thinks Miller is the better fighter and can win a decision if he doesn't empty his gas tank in the first round. He notes that Pichel is a point fighter who doesn't push a high pace, which may not gas Miller out. However, he acknowledges Pichel's toughness and that Miller historically loses when fights go past the first round.

Miller by decision; Pichel's pace may not be enough to fatigue Miller
"i'm actually leaning towards jim miller here i think he's the better fighter"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 13, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Miller has the jiu-jitsu advantage and can catch Pichel from the bottom or hurt him on the feet. Pichel has ring rust and Miller is active. The fight likely ends inside the distance, with Miller by submission or Pichel by TKO. Miller's submission threat is real, and he has power in his hands. Confidence is low, but Miller gets the nod.

Under 2.5 rounds (+110); Miller wins by first-round submission
"I'm going to take Miller... I think he hits and hurts Vince Pichel and then eventually pulls off a rear naked choke or some sort of arm triangle."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller by submission in the first round, citing Miller's recent activity and veteran experience. He believes Pichel fights infrequently and may not be fully committed, while Miller is in shape and has a submission win over a common opponent.

submission in the first round
"jim miller wins the fight by submission in the first round"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. dos Santos · Jun 29, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vinc Pichel 0 31 of 87 35% 34 of 90 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:34
Roosevelt Roberts 0 60 of 101 59% 81 of 122 3 of 6 50% 1 1 5:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vinc Pichel 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
Roosevelt Roberts 0 18 of 29 62% 22 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:47
2 Vinc Pichel 0 10 of 30 33% 13 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:02
Roosevelt Roberts 0 21 of 37 56% 29 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:35
3 Vinc Pichel 0 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Roosevelt Roberts 0 21 of 35 60% 30 of 44 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vinc Pichel 31 of 87 35% 22 of 75 6 of 8 3 of 4 26 of 80 5 of 6 0 of 1
Roosevelt Roberts 60 of 101 59% 29 of 55 16 of 26 15 of 20 26 of 62 14 of 16 20 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vinc Pichel 17 of 43 39% 10 of 35 4 of 4 3 of 4 13 of 38 4 of 5 0 of 0
Roosevelt Roberts 18 of 29 62% 3 of 10 7 of 10 8 of 9 9 of 20 9 of 9 0 of 0
2 Vinc Pichel 10 of 30 33% 8 of 27 2 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roosevelt Roberts 21 of 37 56% 8 of 18 7 of 10 6 of 9 12 of 23 3 of 5 6 of 9
3 Vinc Pichel 4 of 14 28% 4 of 13 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 1
Roosevelt Roberts 21 of 35 60% 18 of 27 2 of 6 1 of 2 5 of 19 2 of 2 14 of 14
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 4:06 · UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · Jun 01, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregor Gillespie 0 13 of 26 50% 30 of 48 7 of 9 77% 2 0 7:51
Vinc Pichel 0 7 of 22 31% 35 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregor Gillespie 0 8 of 17 47% 20 of 34 4 of 5 80% 1 0 4:06
Vinc Pichel 0 3 of 12 25% 12 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Gregor Gillespie 0 5 of 9 55% 10 of 14 3 of 4 75% 1 0 3:45
Vinc Pichel 0 4 of 10 40% 23 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregor Gillespie 13 of 26 50% 11 of 24 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 13 2 of 5 6 of 8
Vinc Pichel 7 of 22 31% 6 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 17 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregor Gillespie 8 of 17 47% 7 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 2 of 5 2 of 3
Vinc Pichel 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Gregor Gillespie 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 5
Vinc Pichel 4 of 10 40% 3 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0
WIN vs Joaquim Silva
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Jacaré vs. Brunson 2 · Jan 27, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vinc Pichel 0 60 of 186 32% 62 of 188 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:48
Joaquim Silva 0 45 of 100 45% 54 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vinc Pichel 0 13 of 38 34% 14 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Joaquim Silva 0 6 of 16 37% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vinc Pichel 0 19 of 48 39% 19 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Joaquim Silva 0 11 of 30 36% 12 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Vinc Pichel 0 28 of 100 28% 29 of 101 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:15
Joaquim Silva 0 28 of 54 51% 29 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vinc Pichel 60 of 186 32% 24 of 135 15 of 21 21 of 30 50 of 174 10 of 12 0 of 0
Joaquim Silva 45 of 100 45% 30 of 79 10 of 15 5 of 6 44 of 97 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vinc Pichel 13 of 38 34% 3 of 25 3 of 3 7 of 10 10 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0
Joaquim Silva 6 of 16 37% 3 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vinc Pichel 19 of 48 39% 9 of 30 3 of 8 7 of 10 17 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Joaquim Silva 11 of 30 36% 7 of 23 1 of 3 3 of 4 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vinc Pichel 28 of 100 28% 12 of 80 9 of 10 7 of 10 23 of 94 5 of 6 0 of 0
Joaquim Silva 28 of 54 51% 20 of 44 7 of 9 1 of 1 27 of 51 1 of 3 0 of 0
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Angelo is confident in Bonfim, citing his youth, power, and aggressive style against the 41-year-old Pichel who hasn't fought in two years. He references the trend of older fighters getting finished at UFC Vegas 91. He advises betting early before odds move.

"Ishmael bonfim is the pick and if you want to bet on him you need to do it now before the odds take over"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Big Brady highlights Bonfim's youth and striking advantage, noting Pichel's age (41) and long layoff as major concerns. He believes Bonfim will stuff takedowns and dominate on the feet, leading to a one-sided decision. He acknowledges Pichel's submission threat but doubts he can implement it.

"I'm taking Bonfim to win this fight by a pretty one-sided decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Cody picks Bonfim, citing his sharp striking, takedown defense, and cardio. He notes Pichel is 41, inactive, and has no submission wins. Cody expects Bonfim to win, possibly by decision or late finish.

"I just feel like Bonfim is way sharper..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Daniel Vreeland picks Bonfim by decision, citing his youth, volume striking, and experience despite his age. He notes that Pichel is durable and has low mileage for his age, but Bonfim's boxing and takedown defense should allow him to win minutes on the feet. He believes Bonfim's finishing equity is overrated and that a decision is likely.

Bonfim by decision
"bonim by decision I think he's got some value"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Bonfim stumbled in his last fight against Benoit Saint-Denis but is expected to have a better showing against the 41-year-old Pichel, who has been two years away from the cage. Bonfim is the slicker striker and can stay competitive in grappling if Pichel takes it there. His striking will start to chip away at Pichel and allow him to find a finish in the second or third round.

finish in second or third round
"I think bomfim is the Slicker Striker and can stay in competitive in the grappling R should Pelle look to take it there but I think that bomb F Slicker striking approach will start to C CCH up to Pelle and allow bomb theme to find the finish in the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Paul picks Bonfim, highlighting his explosive striking and takedown defense. He notes Pichel's inactivity and age are concerns. Paul expects Bonfim to win but acknowledges Pichel's grit could make it competitive.

"I think he's good... he looked really good in the contender series..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

The MMA Guru confidently picks Ismael Bonfim, predicting a first-round TKO. He expects Bonfim to push Pichel against the cage and bait him with feints, while noting Pichel's age (41) and over two years of inactivity as key factors. He also mentions Bonfim's good jiu-jitsu and the favorable matchup.

TKO in the first round
"ishmail Bon ferm's gonna go out there and get a TKO in the first round"