UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024 · Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Age 30
Height 5' 4"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 28
Height 5' 5"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Alessandro Costa
3.73 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.72 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.79 TD Avg
26.0% TD Acc.
86.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Kevin Borjas
3.96 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
5.64 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Alessandro Costa - Fight History
SCHED vs Matt Schnell
13
138 MMA Expert Hesitant picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

The host picks Costa, mostly because of Schnell's durability issues, noting that Costa has power and could knock Schnell out. He acknowledges that if the fight goes to decision, Schnell might outpoint Costa due to higher volume. He mentions that Costa is taking the fight on short notice, which adds uncertainty.

"I'm taking Costa mostly just because the durability of Schnell doesn't seem to be there."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

AJ sees this as a mismatch, with Alessandro Costa being a well-rounded fighter with knockout power and submission threat, while Matt Schnell is past his prime and too hittable. He expects Costa to finish early, possibly by submission, and notes the catchweight at 130 benefits Costa.

Alessandro Costa by submission +525 (explicitly mentioned as sneaky prop), early finish (implied)
"Alisandro Costa. man, six to one odds, but makes sense."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lock picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

AJ is extremely confident in Costa, calling him a lock. He cites Costa's well-rounded skills, including Muay Thai, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu, and notes Schnell's decline with 1-4 in last five. AJ expects Costa to finish Schnell, likely by submission in round one, and sees this as a one-sided affair.

under 1.5 rounds minus 135; Costa by submission round 1
"I think Costa absolutely clears... I think Costa is a lock here. I don't see him losing this fight."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo is extremely confident in Alessandro Costa, calling it the easiest breakdown on the card. He notes Costa's power, speed, and leg kicks, while highlighting Matt Schnell's horrendous chin. He believes Costa will knock Schnell out, and says -550 is a 'deal of a lifetime' that will move to -1400 by fight night.

Odds -550, expects line to move to -1400
"Minus 550 the deal of a lifetime and it will not stay there. It'll be minus 1,400 come fight night."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Big Brady picks Alessandro Costa to win by first round submission. He believes Matt Schnell is washed up, has poor durability, and can't grapple anymore. He sees Costa's power and BJJ as major threats, and expects Schnell to either get knocked out or submitted quickly.

by first round submission
"I'm going to take Alessandro Costa. Um going to take him by first round submission."
BU
Bum MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Matt Schnell has a terrible chin, having been knocked out or submitted multiple times. Alessandro Costa has power and will likely knock him out in the first round. Schnell is 36 and has considered retirement, while Costa is a solid finisher.

KO in first round
"Give me Costa by knockout in the first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Cody confidently picks Costa, citing Schnell's poor durability, cardio, and takedown defense. He notes Costa has power and multiple paths to victory, including knockout or ground-and-pound. Schnell's chin and tendency to fade make him a risky bet.

"I can't get behind Matt Snell... I think Aleandro Costa could submit."
FI
Fight Night Picks Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Alessandro Costa is picked because Matt Schnell's chin is unreliable and Costa has power in his hands. Schnell cannot sit in the pocket with Costa or he will get knocked out. Costa also has grappling skills. The host sees no clear path for Schnell and expects Costa to win inside the distance, likely by knockout.

Alessandro Costa wins inside the distance (knockout)
"I do believe Alandra Costa wins. I don't really see a clear path for match now. So feels like Alandro Costa should win inside the distance."
GR
Greedo Plays MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Costa is a much better fighter at this point, with power and solid grappling. Schnell has a glass chin and has been knocked out repeatedly. Costa should finish him in the first round.

first round KO
"Alandro Costa knocks out Matt Schnell in the very first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Costa is a BJJ black belt with power and strong grappling. Schnell has poor submission defense and gets finished often. Costa should dominate and eventually lock up a submission. The Costa by submission prop at +500 is a good play.

Costa by submission (+500)
"I think Costa will go out there, I think he'll put the power and pain on Chnel and I think it's just a matter of time before he either finds a knockout or a submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Paul picks Costa by knockout in round 2, noting Costa's power and Schnell's chin issues. He expects Costa to land eventually, as Schnell cannot withstand pressure. He avoids betting the moneyline due to high price but likes the KO prop.

Costa knockout round 2
"Costa knockout round two would be my official prediction."
KO R2 4:56 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Apr 04, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alessandro Costa 1 43 of 89 48% 47 of 97 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:18
Stewart Nicoll 0 47 of 99 47% 47 of 99 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alessandro Costa 0 20 of 46 43% 20 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stewart Nicoll 0 27 of 59 45% 27 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Alessandro Costa 1 23 of 43 53% 27 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:18
Stewart Nicoll 0 20 of 40 50% 20 of 40 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alessandro Costa 43 of 89 48% 26 of 67 11 of 13 6 of 9 41 of 85 1 of 3 1 of 1
Stewart Nicoll 47 of 99 47% 26 of 73 12 of 16 9 of 10 47 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alessandro Costa 20 of 46 43% 11 of 34 4 of 4 5 of 8 20 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stewart Nicoll 27 of 59 45% 13 of 42 5 of 7 9 of 10 27 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alessandro Costa 23 of 43 53% 15 of 33 7 of 9 1 of 1 21 of 39 1 of 3 1 of 1
Stewart Nicoll 20 of 40 50% 13 of 31 7 of 9 0 of 0 20 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-400); Nicoll (+300)

Round 1
It has not been sunshine and rainbows for these two flyweights colliding, winner of just two of their five combined appearances in the promotion thus far. Costa (14-5, 2-3 UFC) is the one who has actually prevailed, while proud Aussie Nicoll (8-2, 0-2 UFC) is aiming for his first UFC triumph. Standing guard over the flyweights will be referee Chris Tognoni, who stands back as they scurry towards one another to touch gloves.
Costa leads off pressuring forward, and this puts him in the path of a sudden spin kick from the Aussie. Costa shrugs it off and looses a pair of kicks, and he watches a spinning back kick soar past his face. Nicoll goes to the well again with another spinning kick, and it bangs into the guard. He tosses out a spinning back fist, and nearly has his leg kicked out when he plants his feet again. Costa jackhammers the front leg again, and it does not take many for Nicoll to think about another way in. Both men keep low bases as if to prepare against and preemptively defend a takedown, thus resulting in a tit-for-tat kickboxing affair. Nicoll stands in the pocket too long and gets battered back with a trio of fast punches, and he shakes his head as if to motion that he was not caught. Costa celebrates his handiwork by ripping a left to the ribs, and he has his guard up to block the eventual spin.
Costa rattles punches off the guard and kicks the front leg, and he nails the Aussie with a few punches. Nicoll has to take a quick count of his teeth before re-engaging, where he is met with sweeping calf kicks. Nicoll offers up his own leg kick on the inside, and they trade their leg-based strikes back-and-forth. Costa hammers the body again, and Nicoll crashes the pocket to grip hold of a single. “Nono” says “no no” to the takedown effort and drives Nicoll back, and he ducks a spinning back fist and catches the Aussie. Nicoll grins after absorbing a strike or two, and he plants his shin on Costa’s lead calf. Costa punches high and ducks down to shoot, but he elects instead to drive a flying knee into the chin. Nicoll gets hurt with a body shot, and he counters Costa coming in with a fierce right hand and offers up a spinning back fist but is taking shots on the way out. With Nicoll grinning like a banshee, the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
The flyweights touch gloves to start off the round, and Nicoll reintroduces himself with a jabbing front kick. It partially grazes the up, so he offers up an apology as there is no stoppage. Costa steps in with a left and gets clubbed with a check left hook. Costa surges forward with a pair of hooks, backing off to not get caught on the way out. Costa thumps the leg with a kick and slaps at Nicoll with an overhand right, and he is well aware when Nicoll offers back a spinning back kick. Nicoll tries a leaping back fist that does not do anything, and Costa shoots in for a double and is a hair away from getting Nicoll down. Nicoll frames off but ends up getting dropped on his head, with Costa taking his back. Nicoll takes a few elbows to the back of the head as he looks to wriggle Costa off his back standing, and Costa readjusts himself to not slide off. Costa disengages the back take and the two return to the center of the cage offering jabs.
Costa goes to the body with a kick, and Nicoll does the same. Nicoll sneaks in two punches, and he follows them with two more and a level change. Costa puts his back to the fence and uses his leverage to turn Nicoll around and lean him on the cage. Costa turns his foe around to knee him in the gut, and he ducks away when Nicoll hurls punches at him. Costa loads up with power punches, and he bangs heavy hooks off the sides of Nicoll’s dome. A takedown falls apart, and Costa knees Nicoll square in the face. Nicoll smiles back at him. Costa surprises Nicoll with a spinning back elbow, and he follows it with a jump knee and may have hurt Nicoll. The Brazilian strikes out with another flying knee, and instead of continuing to throw hands and feet, he grapples. Costa looks for a standing back take, but ends up getting wrenched off and has to reset. Costa eventually telegraphs a shot, and Nicoll stands him up.
Winding up with everything he has as seconds remain on the clock, the Lobo Gym MMA fighter unleashes a ferocious left hook that smashes square into Nicoll’s liver. Nicoll collapses to his knees, totally defeated, and Costa only needs one single finalizing punch that connects while Tognoni is already intervening.
What a body shot, and what a performance from “Nono” to put himself back to a .500 UFC fighter. Bas Rutten is smiling somewhere after that broken liver showcase.

The Official Result
Alessandro Costa def. Stewart Nicoll R2 4:56 via KO (Punch to the Body)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo picks Alessandro Costa, believing he is better than his record and will bust up Stewart Nicoll. He notes Costa's power, leg kicks, and striking accuracy, while Nicoll is hitable on the feet and his takedowns are desperate. Angelo dismisses Costa's last loss due to a freak foot injury and expects Costa to be well-prepared for Nicoll's wrestling.

"I'm going to pick him with confidence and I'm going to see him bust this dude up."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Big Brady picks Alessandro Costa by second-round knockout. He likes Costa's power, opportunistic jiu-jitsu, and takedown defense. He criticizes Nicoll's wrestling, noting he went 2-for-20 on takedowns against Lucas Rocha, who has no takedown defense. He expects Costa to knock out Nicoll on the feet.

Costa by KO in round 2
"I'll take Costa to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Cody picks Costa, citing his takedown defense and power. He expects Costa to stuff Nicoll's takedowns and land heavy shots, winning by decision or late TKO.

"I think Costa is the better play. He's the better guy. And when you're looking at the big favorites on this card, he's not minus 2,000 like Yakv. He's not minus 1,200 like McMillan. He's minus 400."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Costa confidently. He emphasizes that Nicoll is too excitable and not technical enough, often making wrong moves and allowing opponents to dictate. Costa's aggression and physicality should overwhelm Nicoll, who has shown a tendency to leapfrog into submissions and get overexcited.

Costa opened -450, now -400; Nicoll opened +350, now +330.
"I don't see anything in Nicoll's game that can technically hold Costa off."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)

The host sees potential value on Nicoll due to Costa's weakness on the ground, but is not confident enough to bet pre-fight. He notes Nicoll's persistent wrestling could exploit Costa's poor ground game, but Costa's power and takedown defense make it risky. He prefers to watch for live betting.

Interesting for live betting.
"So for me, this is a very interesting fight from a live betting point of view. I can't pre-fight bet this one because, you know, based on Nicholls last fight against Rosher, he will likely stroll to get Costa down. …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

James picks Alessandro Costa via TKO in round two, citing Costa's athleticism, striking power, and training with Diego Lopez. He notes Nicoll's limited striking and tendency to be submitted, but warns Costa has poor round threes and has been knocked out twice. He believes Costa's physicality and finishing ability will be enough to get the job done inside the distance, as he has in his other UFC wins.

Round 2 TKO prediction
"Aleandro Costa knockout in round two is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

The host believes Costa is the better striker with a nasty calf kick and good enough grappling to neutralize Nicoll. He notes Nicoll's two-fight losing streak and struggles in the UFC. He expects Costa to win inside the distance, possibly via TKO from the calf kick. He is willing to parlay Costa.

Costa inside the distance
"I think Costa wins. I think he actually does enough damage to Nicola, especially with that calf kick and that he works himself to a finish here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Paul picks Costa, noting Nicoll's poor wrestling and durability issues. He expects Costa to win, possibly by KO, but warns the moneyline is steep.

"Costa for me, am I going to let Costa minus 400 ruin my week? I don't think so."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Alessandro Costa

The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa, noting he dropped Erceg and has finishes, while Stewart Nicoll looked incapable of causing harm in his last fight. He believes Costa's explosiveness will lead to a TKO victory.

TKO victory predicted
"I'm going to say that Alessandro Costa puts him away by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Zane picks Costa confidently, noting that Costa is a reliable action fighter who dictates the pace with aggression and physicality. He sees Nicoll as too excitable and not technical enough, prone to making wrong moves and getting overwhelmed. Costa's determination to go forward and toughness should overcome Nicoll's lack of composure.

Costa opened -450, now -400; Nicoll opened +350, now +330.
"I will take Costa as well."
LOSS vs Alden Coria
KO R3 0:47 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alessandro Costa 0 12 of 56 21% 14 of 59 1 of 4 25% 2 0 1:24
Alden Coria 0 42 of 95 44% 77 of 131 2 of 2 100% 0 1 3:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alessandro Costa 0 10 of 48 20% 10 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Alden Coria 0 20 of 57 35% 20 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alessandro Costa 0 1 of 4 25% 3 of 7 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:23
Alden Coria 0 12 of 19 63% 47 of 55 2 of 2 100% 0 1 3:15
3 Alessandro Costa 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alden Coria 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alessandro Costa 12 of 56 21% 7 of 37 1 of 6 4 of 13 12 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alden Coria 42 of 95 44% 34 of 85 1 of 3 7 of 7 29 of 79 0 of 0 13 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alessandro Costa 10 of 48 20% 5 of 30 1 of 6 4 of 12 10 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alden Coria 20 of 57 35% 14 of 49 0 of 2 6 of 6 20 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alessandro Costa 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alden Coria 12 of 19 63% 11 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 13
3 Alessandro Costa 1 of 4 25% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alden Coria 10 of 19 52% 9 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1 8 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alden Coria vs. Alessandro Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-450); Coria (+350)

Round 1
Dan Miragliotta is the referee. Coria opens up with a leg kick and Costa answers. coria with an inside leg kick. Costa kicks the body. Coria is switching stances in the early going. A jab lands for the Houston native. A slick 1-2 from Coria tags Costa, who sahkes it off. Coria moves in and out with a jab, then blocks a high kick. Costa finds an opening and alnds an overhand. coria continues to work behind hhis jab. Costa whiffs on an overhand. Coria follows a jab by just missing on a head kick. A counter left connects for Coria, who follows with a leg kick. Costa is winging power punches, and he lands a glancing overhand right. Coria attacks the lead leg of his foe. Costa attacks the body with a kick. Costa catches Coria with a combination. Coria lands a body kick and then a jab. Costa blocks a head kick but it smacks off the forearms. Coria extends a combo and lands multiple punches. Costa looks for a takedown late in the round but Coria keeps his footing. Coria blocks a body kick.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Coria

Round 2
They trade jabs early. They crash into the clinch and Coria takes his man down when Costa jumps into his arms. Coria is inside the Brazilian’s guard. Costa is active from his back, throwing his legs up and looking for submissions. Coria finds an opening and drops a couple heavy elbows. Costa pushes off the fence with his legs and Coria is forced to defend a leg lock. Costa scrambles to his feet and Coria shoves him into the wire. Costa is threatening with a kimura with his back to the fence. Coria lifts Costa and briefly sets him down. Costa rolls and transitions to the back. Moments later he suplexes the newcomer to the mat while maintaining back control, secures a body triangle and looks to find openings for a rear-naked choke. Costa is working on a neck crank now. Coria is able to turn and scramble back into top position, where he drops an elbow with a minute to go. Coria finds room for another elbow, then stands over his opponent before diving back in with punches. Another elbow lands from top position for Coria, who has recovered to finish the round strong.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Coria

Round 3
The broadcast team reveals that Costa struggled to his corner between rounds due to an apparent foot injury. Coria probes with his jab. Coria backs Costa up and lands a right hand. Costa shoots out of desperation and Coria sprawls relatively easily. Costa doesn’t appear to have much left in the tank, and
Coria tees off with a barrage of punches against the fence. Costa slumps to the floor and Coria is able to connect with a few more blows before Miragliotta shoves him away.
An impressive UFC debut for the Fury FC veteran. Costa, meanwhile, seems to indicate that his injured pinkie toe hindered him down the stretch. As it turns out, Costa’s corner was throwing in the towel around the same time Miragliotta was calling off the bout.

The Official Result
Alden Coria def. Alessandro Costa via TKO (Punches) R3 0:47
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo picks Costa, noting he is a solid striker with good takedown defense and real power, though he can be low volume. He thinks Coria is a busy grappler but may be too slow and hittable. He says the odds at -350 seem wide for a competitive fight, but still goes with Costa.

Odds seem pretty wide at minus 350
"Costa is going to be the pick here. These odds seem pretty wide at minus 350 though."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Big Brady picks Costa due to his power, BJJ black belt, and level of competition faced. He notes Costa is hittable with a questionable chin but has only lost to top flyweights. He expects Costa to win by any method, possibly submission if the fight goes to the ground, but acknowledges the line is steep at -430.

Potential submission win; line too steep to bet
"I'm going to take Costa to win and I think it could win by any method."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Costa is favored due to his leg kicks, BJJ black belt, and power, but the host is skeptical of the big chalky line. Despite this, he expects Costa to put together enough work to win on the scorecards, though not confidently.

skeptical of the big chalky line
"I'm a little bit skeptical of the big chalky line on Costa, but I still expect him to go out there and put together a good enough body of work to win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

The MMA Guru confidently picks Alessandro Costa, noting his experience against top flyweights like Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg. He describes Costa as explosive, dangerous, and powerful, while dismissing Alden Coria as a short-notice debutant who hasn't beaten anyone of note. He gives Coria only a 1 in 10 chance of an upset.

"I'm going to go with Aleandro Costa. And I agree with the odds having him so much of a favorite because Alden Cora he could pull off an upset here but he is [ __ ] trash."
WIN vs Kevin Borjas
TKO (punches) R2 1:35 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alessandro Costa 1 46 of 86 53% 60 of 104 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:43
Kevin Borjas 0 18 of 56 32% 18 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alessandro Costa 0 16 of 45 35% 16 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Kevin Borjas 0 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Alessandro Costa 1 30 of 41 73% 44 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Kevin Borjas 0 3 of 18 16% 3 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alessandro Costa 46 of 86 53% 32 of 66 2 of 5 12 of 15 25 of 55 1 of 3 20 of 28
Kevin Borjas 18 of 56 32% 12 of 45 5 of 10 1 of 1 18 of 55 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alessandro Costa 16 of 45 35% 9 of 33 2 of 4 5 of 8 15 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 1
Kevin Borjas 15 of 38 39% 10 of 31 4 of 6 1 of 1 15 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alessandro Costa 30 of 41 73% 23 of 33 0 of 1 7 of 7 10 of 14 0 of 0 20 of 27
Kevin Borjas 3 of 18 16% 2 of 14 1 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Borjas vs. Alessandro Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-125), Borjas (+105)

Round 1
The UFC is back for its annual trip to Brazil, and it stacked the deck for the home nation by putting one Brazilian combatant against a foreigner in every bout. As a result, betting lines are lopsided towards the locals, with those from Brazil favored in 10 of the 13 fights. As most know, anything can and often does happen in MMA once the cage door closes, so it’s time to buckle up. The first of a baker’s dozen matchups comes in the flyweight division between two South American men that could both use a win. Costa (13-4, 1-2 UFC) has had the misfortune of facing two elite 125ers in his three walks to the Octagon thus far, while Borjas (9-2, 0-1 UFC) ran into the Burmese wall that was Josh Van in his promotional debut. The two will receive oversight from referee Joao Claudio Soares in this curtain jerker, and they get after it following a swift touch of gloves. The two flyweights measure one another early, trying to draw the other out with little more than movement and a pump-fake or two. Borjas paws out a range-finding jab, and Costa suddenly fires back with a one-two and a low kick. Costa surges ahead, stringing together a number of punches that bounce off and through the guard of his opponent. Costa whips a kick low to intercept Borjas coming in at him, and he stalks his man down. The Brazilian swarms forward, and Borjas shifts and rolls to avoid the damage. Costa changes levels for a takedown shot from a wide distance, and “El Gallo Negro” shucks it off before it turns into anything. Borjas paws out a few jabs, and he finds himself in a brief slugfest that gets his jaw jacked. Costa stands back to admire his work, and then blazes ahead to hammer his man with three punches on the side of the head and they crash heads together. A cut has opened up above Borjas’ ear, but he does not acknowledge it and tries to counter the advancing Costa with two flying knees. Costa shrugs them both off and lets his hand fly, and sporadic chants for “uh vai morrer” rain down from the fans. Costa takes the energy of the crowd and rifles off a jab that knocks Borjas off his feet, and he lets Borjas recover so that he can ring his bell with a pair of hooks. Borjas stumbles and gets back to his feet to leap in the air with a knee, and the round ends with Costa returning fire with his own flying knee that slams into the chest. Borjas throws his foe to the floor, and the round ends.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
The two men bump fists to open the round, and Costa gets right back to his advancing attack. Costa lays into his man with punches to the head, and he mixes up one to the body that appears to hurt the Peruvian. Costa sees and opening and unleashes a number of leg kicks that do serious damage and make Borjas limp. Borjas tries to tough it out, but Costa sweeps him off his feet with vicious low kicks. Costa chains a few punches together as Borjas backs himself against the fence, and he knocks Borjas to the ground again with a mighty calf kick. Seeing the finish might be around the corner, “Nono” leaps on top and drops jackhammering fists as Soares takes a close eye on the action. Borjas tries to scramble and nearly gives up his back, and as he turns over, Costa jumps on top of him into full mount.
Costa finishes the job with a long series of hammerfists and punches, and Soares has seen enough and waves off the fight to put Brazil on the board first.
This is an important win for the Brazilian, who evens his UFC record to .500 while also evening his distribution of knockouts to submissions at six apiece.

The Official Result
Alessandro Costa def. Kevin Borjas R2 1:35 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo sees this as a 50/50 fight but leans Costa due to his wrestling advantage. He notes Costa's low volume striking and power, but believes Costa's takedowns will be the difference, similar to Borjas' loss to Joshua Van. He explicitly says he's not betting on it because he doesn't trust Costa.

"I am going to pick alisandra kosa to win this fight but only because of the wrestling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Big Brady sees Costa as having more ways to win, including power on the feet and a grappling advantage. He notes Costa's BJJ black belt and slick ground game, though it hasn't been shown in the UFC yet. He predicts Costa will get the fight to the mat and secure a submission in the second round.

submission in round 2
"I'll take Costa to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Cody picks Costa, citing his powerful low kicks, takedown defense, and durability. He notes Borjas is a brawler with poor cardio and takedown defense. Cody expects Costa to land heavy shots and grind out a win.

"Costa for me..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Daniel Vreeland picks Costa, citing his experience against top competition (Albazi, Erceg), Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, and home crowd advantage. He notes that Borjas has volume but less experience at the UFC level. He believes Costa's grappling is a key advantage and even took a small bet on Costa by submission at +550.

Costa by submission +550
"I do think that Costa gets the job done here probably uh and I even took a small shot on Costa by submission here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Borjas

Borjas had a hot start in his UFC debut but blew his wad too early. He is expected to learn from that mistake and put on power striking pressure against Costa, eventually finding a knockout within two rounds.

knockout within two rounds
"I expect him to learn from that mistake this time around and put on the power striking pressure here against alisandra Costa and eventually find The Knockout within two rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Paul picks Costa, emphasizing his takedown defense and power. He notes Borjas leaves openings and has been taken down easily. Paul expects Costa to land damaging blows and win.

"I got to go with Costa to get the job done."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa based on athleticism, speed, power, and strength, especially against the cage. He notes Costa's rough UFC run but highlights competitive rounds against top flyweights like Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi. He predicts a TKO in the second round, citing Costa's finishing potential and power advantage over the relatively unknown Kevin Borjas.

TKO in the second round
"I'm going to go with alesandro Costa getting this one done by TKO in the second round"
LOSS vs Steve Erceg
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Erceg 0 74 of 125 59% 104 of 162 1 of 8 12% 1 1 6:29
Alessandro Costa 0 54 of 97 55% 85 of 129 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Erceg 0 31 of 54 57% 31 of 54 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:49
Alessandro Costa 0 16 of 36 44% 16 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
2 Steve Erceg 0 24 of 45 53% 37 of 60 0 of 3 0% 0 1 2:06
Alessandro Costa 0 24 of 42 57% 33 of 51 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:49
3 Steve Erceg 0 19 of 26 73% 36 of 48 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:34
Alessandro Costa 0 14 of 19 73% 36 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Erceg 74 of 125 59% 41 of 87 25 of 30 8 of 8 43 of 91 26 of 28 5 of 6
Alessandro Costa 54 of 97 55% 31 of 70 14 of 17 9 of 10 35 of 76 19 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Erceg 31 of 54 57% 18 of 38 6 of 9 7 of 7 26 of 49 3 of 3 2 of 2
Alessandro Costa 16 of 36 44% 6 of 25 4 of 5 6 of 6 16 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Steve Erceg 24 of 45 53% 15 of 35 8 of 9 1 of 1 12 of 30 9 of 11 3 of 4
Alessandro Costa 24 of 42 57% 18 of 34 3 of 5 3 of 3 18 of 35 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Steve Erceg 19 of 26 73% 8 of 14 11 of 12 0 of 0 5 of 12 14 of 14 0 of 0
Alessandro Costa 14 of 19 73% 7 of 11 7 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 5 13 of 14 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alessandro Costa vs. Steve Erceg
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Erceg (-166), Costa (+140)

Round 1
Crashing into the UFC in June with a huge upset win over a ranked David Dvorak, Australia’s Erceg (10-1, 1-0 UFC) hopes his sophomore effort is just as solid as his UFC debut. Looking to halt his momentum will be Costa (13-3, 1-1 UFC), a former Lux Fight League champ who holds eight first-round finishes on his resume. They will be joined in the cage by referee Marc Goddard, and the preliminary headliner commences as the two flyweights touch gloves. Erceg takes to the center of the cage, and he slowly works his way forward without throwing much of note. When Costa aims a kick low, Erceg counters with a piston-like right hand. Erceg tosses out a leg kick, and a second kick makes Costa spring into action with a hard right hand. Costa flicks out a jab, and Erceg pushes out one back and kicks the inside and outside of his leg. When Costa kicks back, Erceg has a check ready. Costa’s big right hand bounces off the guard, and he swings two hooks as Erceg bears down on him. Erceg gets backed off, but still connects with a power jab. Costa flails long and connects with part of an overhand right, but Erceg is able to move with it to take some of the sting out of it. Erceg prods out his jab and snaps the head back with a right hand, and Costa kicks him in response. Costa rings Erceg’s bell with an overhand right, and he tries to chain another and is met with a knee up the middle and a right hook. Erceg splits the guard with a one-two, and he puts three together and sways to the side to make Costa hurl punches at nothing but air. Erceg goes between the gloves with an uppercut, and he lines up a huge right hand and busts Costa in the face. Costa attempts to take him down as he is rattled, and Erceg spins him around and climbs straight into full mount. Costa turns to his side, and Erceg snatches up a rear-naked choke. Costa is in huge trouble but manages to gut out the submission, as he turns his body and keeps moving. Erceg tries to trap him with another choke attempt, but Costa explodes to get back to his feet, and he pushes the Aussie to the wire. The round ends with both men attempting inaccurate front kicks.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Erceg

Round 2
To start off the second stanza, the Australian fighter again claims the middle of the Octagon and moves forward, to force Costa to immediately backpedal. Erceg launches a head kick that pounds into the guard, and he shoves Costa and bounces him off the fence. Costa goes for a home run right hand, and Erceg evades it by a matter of millimeters. Costa is a man on a mission, looking for giant strikes, and he connects with numerous huge strikes as Erceg takes them or tries to keep moving. Costa drives a knee up the middle, and Erceg recovers and returns to put pressure on his opponent. Costa winds up with a hefty leg kick, and a subsequent overhand right stings Erceg again. Costa swings with a mighty right hook once more, and he shoots in low for a single to catch Erceg unaware. Erceg defends himself by getting pushed back to the wall, and Costa drags him down and shifts himself to half guard in a hurry. Costa tries to smash his foe with ground-and-pound, but he throws himself off-balance and allows Erceg to sneak out the back door and climb back to his feet, where he pushes Costa into the wall from behind. Erceg lowers himself down to grip hold of a single, and Costa gets away with a fence grab to stay upright. Erceg knees the body a few times while tightly pressed on his adversary, and Costa jumps guard for an armbar out of nowhere. Erceg defends himself smoothly and lets them both stand, but he continues to press his weight on his aggressive opponent. Costa pushes off, and he lets his hands go to knock Erceg back. As Erceg is wobbled, Costa tackles him to the canvas. The Brazilian turns over to pursue an armlock, and Erceg flips him over and grinds him with elbows on the face until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
The flyweights have reached Round 3, and Erceg is quick to resume the trend where he started the first two rounds pushing the pace early. Erceg backs Costa off, threatening knees and level changes, and Costa blocks a jump knee that is aimed at his dome. Erceg pushes him up to the fencing, and he fights off a trip to keep on his feet. Erceg looks to drag his man down, but Costa awkwardly keeps his balance and may have grabbed the cage again. Erceg transitions to a single, and Costa belts him with an elbow to back him off. Costa comes up short with a sweeping low kick, and Erceg jabs him multiple times in the face before timing a clean level change. Costa is on the mat for barely a second before jumping back up, and Erceg squeezes him up against the fencing to control him further. Costa gets off a solid right hand to back off the Aussie, and Erceg gathers his thoughts and pushes him back to the wall. Erceg looks to tie the legs up and trip Costa down, and Costa hits his knees and powers back up without batting an eye. Costa attempts his own far-side trip that does not succeed, and Erceg elbows him and eats two knees in the belly for his effort. Costa turns him around and sells out for a single, and he dumps Erceg down but cannot control him. Erceg is upright before Costa knows it, and he is pushing the Brazilian against the wall to run out the clock. Costa frames off with knees to the body, and Erceg responds in kind. Erceg cannot get his foe down, and he settles for clinch control until the final horn wraps the fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)

The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. Alessandro Costa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo picks Costa as an underdog, citing Costa's solid striking, tight guard, and real power. He notes Erceg is high volume and hittable, but Costa's power and combination striking could be the difference. He is not betting on this fight yet and may flip later.

"I like Costa a lot... I think Costa striking is just good enough to get it done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by knockout in the third round. He notes Erceg is not on short notice, has a size advantage, and his striking has leveled up. He worries about Costa's durability, as Costa has been knocked out twice before and gets hurt often. Brady believes Erceg's power and improved striking will lead to a finish.

Erceg by knockout in the third round
"I'm gonna actually pick him to knock out Alessandro Costa... give me Erceg to win this fight down the stretch in the third round and knock out Alessandro Costa."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

Cody picks Erceg, impressed by his debut on short notice against a ranked opponent. He notes Erceg's durability, scrambling, and ability to push a pace. He thinks Costa's low output and reliance on leg kicks won't be enough, and that Erceg has more dog in him.

"Steve EG he's got the dog in him man he's got the dog in him I'm gonna have to play him this week"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Costa is the better fighter and the line is close to even, so taking the underdog at +130 is worth a small shot. Costa will be more aggressive and can stay out of danger if Erceg tries to take it to the ground. Expects Costa to control distance in the striking realm, land big shots, and win by decision.

small shot on underdog at +130
"I wouldn't mind taking a small shot on the underdog here and allisandro costra at that plus 130 range"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Paul leans Costa as a dog, citing his leg kicks and power. He thinks Erceg's tall frame may be vulnerable to leg kicks, and that Costa's takedown defense is solid. He notes the line movement towards Costa and sees value at plus money, though he's not overly confident.

"Costa at plus 170 he'll be he'll be my official pick I may bet him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Steve Erceg

The MMA Guru picks Steve Erceg, citing his impressive debut win over David Dvorak on short notice and strong regional career. He notes that Alessandro Costa was pieced up by Amir Albazi on the feet, which he sees as a bad sign. He predicts a competitive decision win for Erceg, possibly 29-28, but expresses a slight worry that Erceg might get knocked out due to his build.

by decision
"I'm gonna have to go with Steve EG here not just because alesandro Costa's taken this on short notice but because Steve EG is really really good beat David Dvorak in his debut"
WIN vs Jimmy Flick
TKO (elbows) R2 1:03 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alessandro Costa 0 14 of 37 37% 14 of 37 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:14
Jimmy Flick 1 65 of 91 71% 65 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alessandro Costa 0 14 of 36 38% 14 of 36 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:14
Jimmy Flick 1 54 of 77 70% 54 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Alessandro Costa 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jimmy Flick 0 11 of 14 78% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alessandro Costa 14 of 37 37% 6 of 27 5 of 7 3 of 3 14 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 65 of 91 71% 37 of 58 12 of 15 16 of 18 54 of 76 0 of 0 11 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alessandro Costa 14 of 36 38% 6 of 26 5 of 7 3 of 3 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 54 of 77 70% 27 of 45 12 of 15 15 of 17 53 of 75 0 of 0 1 of 2
2 Alessandro Costa 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 11 of 14 78% 10 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 13
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alessandro Costa vs. Jimmy Flick
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-255), Flick (+215)

Round 1
Capping off the prelims, flyweights of Flick (16-6, 1-1 UFC) and Costa (12-3, 0-1 UFC) square off. “The Brick” has never before landed a knockout, with 88% of his wins coming by tapout, while Costa has never once been submitted. Something might have to give, and referee Keith Peterson is here for it if it does. The fight opens with a no nonsense glove touch, and Flick paws out after with a front kick. Costa slams a leg kick with emphasis on the calf, and Flick tries to get him back with another front kick only to miss. Costa stuffs a takedown after checking a kick, and he pushes Flick away and nails him with another calf kick. Flick jabs with the ball of his foot, and he ducks down low for an overhand right. Costa drills a kick to the body, and he starts chaining body shots together as Flick can do nothing but shell up. Costa pins two punches on Flick’s head before Flick realizes he has been struck, and he circles away while Flick is calculating the damage. Costa aims another left to the body, and Flick kicks low and just buzzes the hair with a high kick to follow. Costa backs Flick off with a one-two, and he absorbs a front kick to the midsection. Costa delivers another kick to the lead wheel, and he doubles up on it. Costa strings three punches together and kicks the calf, and the kick knocks Flick clean off his feet. Flick falls to his back, and Costa kicks at it once more before letting “The Brick” up. Flick stands, and he keeps that left leg back, as it is totally compromised. Costa decides to kick the other leg, and when Flick swaps again, he chops at it once more to nearly topple Flick over. “Nono” smashes Flick’s calf one more time, and Flick dives forward with a takedown. Flick cannot secure it, and he looks for a leglock that Costa shakes off and lets him get up. Flick is unable to plant on his leg, and Costa throws him down to the floor. Costa lines up several punches to the chin when Flick gets back up, and he nails Flick with a flying knee. Flick walks through a low kick to throw punches, and Costa is faster and more accurate. Costa rings Flick’s bell with speedy punches, and Flick’s face turns red as Costa seemingly cannot miss. Costa hammers Flick’s left leg with one last kick, and rips a right to the body as the horn sounds. Flick barely is able to limp back to his corner.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Costa
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-8 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Costa

Round 2
Flick is able to make it out of his corner, and he starts off in southpaw to keep his left leg behind him. Costa does not attack right out of the gate, and he lets Flick kick at him high. Costa times one single low kick, and Flick’s balance is shot and he can barely even lift his foot up.
Flick shoots in after hobbling back to put his arm in the fence to stay up, and Costa bowls him over and starts elbowing him. Flick threatens with some kind of submission, but Costa does not let him set anything up and starts blasting him with elbows. The Brazilian, seeing the finish might be around corner, batters Flick with these nasty elbows until Peterson has seen enough.
Costa strides away, his work done, and he celebrates his first victory inside the Octagon.

The Official Result
Alessandro Costa def. Jimmy Flick R2 1:03 via TKO (Elbows)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Big Brady picks Alessandro Costa to win by late first-round knockout. He is high on Costa, praising his BJJ black belt, grappling, and knockout power. He thinks Costa can dictate where the fight takes place and has good takedown defense. Flick's path is an early submission, but Brady doubts he can submit Costa. He questions Flick's cardio, toughness, and chin, noting Flick has five knockout losses. Brady expects Costa to land a big shot and finish Flick after weathering an early storm.

"I think he gets knocked out here late first round knockout for me for Alessandra Costa."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Cody is confident in Costa, citing Flick's poor durability and cardio. He notes that Flick has been knocked out in five of his six losses, often early, and that his boxing is poor. Costa showed good takedown defense against Amir Albazi, and Cody thinks he can stuff Flick's takedowns and win on the feet. He also plans to live bet Costa if Flick takes him down early and fails to submit him.

plans to live bet Costa if Flick takes him down early
"I will take Costa but of course with uh anytime you're betting against a Jimmy flick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Connor picks Costa, citing his more functional and modern MMA game compared to Flick's one-dimensional grappling. He notes that Costa is a cleaner puncher and that Flick's success depends entirely on landing a submission. Connor is concerned that Flick's aggression could be neutralized if Costa stays standing, as seen in Flick's loss to Charles Johnson. He acknowledges Costa's downside is matching Flick's aimlessness but believes Costa's power and takedown defense give him the edge.

Costa by decision or TKO; Costa at -252 is 'undeservedly good odds'
"I'll stick with coast. I don't believe in this flick return and I don't like it."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Daniel Levi picks Alessandro Costa, citing his BJJ black belt under Diego Lopez and ability to defend submissions. He views Flick as submission-or-bust and believes Costa can handle that threat. He notes Flick's poor durability and that Costa should win if he avoids submissions. He acknowledges the high juice but sees it as a slam dunk.

"I think this is pretty much a slam dunk spot for Costa"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

Flick is a high-level BJJ player who is crafty from top position. Costa is a solid striker but his takedown defense and control on the ground are not impressive. Flick's stationary style of Costa should allow takedown opportunities. Even though Costa is a BJJ black belt, Flick's submission threat is real. The plus 210 line offers value. Flick wins by submission.

Flick wins by submission at +210
"I like flick at this number I agree that Costa should be the favorite I just don't know if the line should be this wide so give me Jimmy flick here and I think he might pull off a submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Paul is hesitant to lay -255 on Costa, given the question marks around him, but he picks Costa because Flick's cardio and durability are major issues. He notes that Flick looked terrible in his return against Charles Johnson and that Costa held his own against Albazi. Paul would not bet the moneyline but expects Costa to win.

"I guess he'll be my pick I just don't know if I can get back to to Jimmy until I see it uh in action"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa over Jimmy Flick, questioning Flick's return after a retirement and a first-round TKO loss to Charles Johnson. He notes Costa's loss to Amir Albazi is no shame, and that Costa has fought good opponents and learned lessons. He predicts Costa will finish Flick by TKO.

"I'm gonna side with Alessandro Costa here over Jimmy flick I don't like why Jimmy flick is coming back"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jimmy Flick

Zane picks Jimmy Flick despite acknowledging his limited game, which relies heavily on back takes and submissions. He notes that Flick is a consistent finisher and that Costa is 'just a guy' who may not have the foundation to stop Flick's chaos. However, he admits Flick's style is a Hail Mary and that Costa could win if he keeps it standing. Zane is hesitant because Flick's return is uncertain and he was easily handled by Charles Johnson.

Flick by submission; Flick is a big underdog at +218
"I'm going to take flick for finishing potential."
LOSS vs Amir Albazi
KO (punches) R3 2:13 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amir Albazi 2 37 of 81 45% 62 of 110 1 of 4 25% 0 0 5:54
Alessandro Costa 0 17 of 71 23% 38 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amir Albazi 0 9 of 32 28% 10 of 33 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:35
Alessandro Costa 0 11 of 41 26% 13 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Amir Albazi 1 18 of 29 62% 42 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:24
Alessandro Costa 0 1 of 9 11% 19 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Amir Albazi 1 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Alessandro Costa 0 5 of 21 23% 6 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amir Albazi 37 of 81 45% 23 of 67 10 of 10 4 of 4 23 of 58 0 of 0 14 of 23
Alessandro Costa 17 of 71 23% 6 of 55 6 of 10 5 of 6 16 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amir Albazi 9 of 32 28% 5 of 28 2 of 2 2 of 2 9 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alessandro Costa 11 of 41 26% 3 of 31 4 of 6 4 of 4 11 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amir Albazi 18 of 29 62% 12 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 6 of 9 0 of 0 12 of 20
Alessandro Costa 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Amir Albazi 10 of 20 50% 6 of 16 3 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 0 2 of 3
Alessandro Costa 5 of 21 23% 2 of 15 2 of 4 1 of 2 4 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Amir Albazi vs. Alessandro Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Albazi (-425), Costa (+350)

Round 1
A few weeks ago, rising flyweight Albazi (15-1, 3-0 UFC) expected to take on Brandon Royval in a crucial matchup in the division looking to sort out contenders. Instead, he now greets UFC newcomer Costa (12-2, 0-0 UFC), who made his way to the UFC not for winning on his appearance on this year’s Contender Series but for laying waste to an opponent in 12 seconds in October. Costa may be less renowned than “Raw Dawg” but he is still dangerous. Referee Keith Peterson is prepped and ready for what should be a fast-paced, no-nonsense tilt. The 125ers do not feeling like touching gloves, and instead want to throw leather. Albazi sticks out a few jabs at a range, and Costa replies with one, but neither man finds their range. Albazi feints and fakes by stomping the floor before turning his shoulders to pretend he is throwing, and Costa stomps the floor as well as they try to trigger the other. Costa scores a hard low kick, and Albazi strides forward to double up on his jab. Costa uses his front foot to stomp the mat to fake his blows, and Albazi is not biting. “The Prince” splits the guard with a jab, and Costa fires a single punch back to get some respect. The Brazilian winds up on two power punches, reaching his target at the end of one. Albazi ducks down, takes a punch on the chin, and ducks even lower to pursue a takedown. Costa stops it from succeeding, so Albazi adjusts his effort and hunts for a single to lift his man up. “Nono” says no to the takedown, escaping before it succeeds, and they return to striking range. Costa gets off a one-two as they continue to measure one another from afar, not committing on much and still looking to reach. Albazi shoots in for a double, and he bails on it when Costa stuffs him. Costa tries and fails to make him pay with a one-two, and the jittery Albazi escapes without concern. Albazi springs away from a looping left hand, and he scores a few jabs and follows one with a slapping leg kick. Costa jabs him back, and he comes up short on a one-two. Costa does land on a subsequent one-two, and he jumps at his man with a knee as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
The second round begins with more of the same, as Costa measures with rangy strikes. Once Costa connects with a left, he chains it into a pair of one-twos. Albazi whips a kick to the side, and he charges in with a fierce right hand that removes Costa’s balance completely. Costa collapses to the mat, and “The Prince” leaps on top in an effort to land ground strikes. Costa ties him up and largely shuts that down, with a tight guard and some short offense including a few elbows off his back. Albazi gains a little space to land a couple short punches, working the body and going up to the head as he methodically and strategically connects. Costa grabs both of his foe’s wrists and freezes Albazi, with submission possibilities and a tight grip stopping Albazi from getting off offense. The Brazilian suddenly releases them to hammer Albazi’s dome with sharp elbows. Albazi postures up every so often to land a power strike, while Costa stays busy from beneath. Albazi sits up and slams down a number of long punches, getting full extension and bouncing Costa’s head off the mat. Albazi stands up and starts drilling the midsection with standing-to-ground blows, and he evades the potential triangle setup by pushing the legs aside and smacking Costa with arcing hammerfists. Albazi gets off a few more hammerfists before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Albazi
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Albazi
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Albazi

Round 3
The flyweights meet in the middle to start off the last round, and Albazi begins with a step-in front kick right to the sternum. Costa tries to wing punches back at him, and he does manage to land a few to the body, but Albazi largely ushers him to the side as he evades the brunt of them. Albazi connects with another push kick up the middle, and he times an advancing Costa by countering with a double that puts Costa flat on his back. The Brazilian closes up his guard as Albazi stays tightly pressed on his opponent, delivering sporadic ground-and-pound. In a lull in the action, Costa kicks off and explodes back to his feet. “The Prince” swings with an overhand right that connects behind the head, and Costa resets.
Albazi lunges forward to loose a blistering uppercut, and Costa’s legs give way beneath him as he is in big trouble. Albazi pounces not to secure top position, but to finish the job. Battering Costa with brutal ground strikes, he only needs a few for Peterson to end any possible nonsense and call a halt to this fight as Costa appears to have gone out.
Albazi made the most of a rough situation, taking on a tough but unheralded opponent as other foes had withdrawn from facing him.

The Official Result
Amir Albazi def. Alessandro Costa R3 2:13 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Angelo loves Albazi here, expecting him to point strike and work in takedowns for a clear win, potentially a stoppage. He notes Albazi is better everywhere except raw power. He thinks Albazi is good for parlays and expects a dominant performance.

Plans to bet on Albazi minus 3.5 (bet online exclusive) because he doesn't see Albazi giving up a round
"I love albazi here he's definitely going to need to be careful with the raw power of Costa but he should be better literally everywhere outside of raw power"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Big Brady picks Albazi, calling him the real deal and a level above Costa. He notes Costa is a good fighter with power and BJJ, but Albazi was scheduled to fight top contenders. He sees no path for Costa to win—not by KO, decision, or submission. He predicts Albazi wins a 30-27 decision.

Albazi wins by decision
"I'll take all bazzi to win by decision I know we went out there and submitted uh Malcolm Gordon... but I'll say Costa you know being a black belt being a very tough guy hangs in there and uh probably …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Cody picks Albazi, emphasizing his superior grappling and submission skills. He notes Albazi's striking is solid and he has good durability. He thinks Costa is in a tough spot on short notice and Albazi will take him down and strangle him. He is not confident in a prop but will play Albazi high.

"I'm definitely going to support all Bosie and of course I'll be playing him higher up this week"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)

The host bet the over 1.5 rounds, not a moneyline pick. He thinks Costa is better than Albazi's recent opponents and that the fight will be competitive for at least a round and a half. He even considers an Albazi decision at +225. No clear winner pick.

Over 1.5 rounds at -179, 1.79 units to win 1 unit; also mentioned Albazi by decision +225
"I do think that Costa is is better than the fighters that albazi has been finishing over his last couple fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Paul picks Albazi, noting he has been a freight train, taking guys down and choking them out. He questions Costa's grappling level and thinks Albazi's submission skills are on another level. He mentions Albazi's striking looks good and he is agile. He considers inside the distance props.

inside the distance minus 120 (mentioned as a potential bet)
"amir's been an absolute freight train just running dudes over taking them down choking them out... albazi is the pick I just don't really know how to attack this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

The MMA Guru picks Amir Albazi over Alessandro Costa, citing Albazi's dominant performances in the flyweight division, including submissions over Francisco Figueiredo and Malcolm Gordon. He notes Costa is good but is stepping up on short notice, which is too much of an ask. He expects Albazi to find a submission, as he has been training for top opponents like Alex Perez and Brandon Royval.

"I'm going to mirror al-basa"
Kevin Borjas - Fight History
SCHED vs André Lima
KO R2 4:21 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Feb 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Imanol Rodriguez 1 46 of 84 54% 55 of 93 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:33
Kevin Borjas 2 22 of 52 42% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Imanol Rodriguez 0 12 of 22 54% 21 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:28
Kevin Borjas 2 12 of 23 52% 14 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Imanol Rodriguez 1 34 of 62 54% 34 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Kevin Borjas 0 10 of 29 34% 10 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Imanol Rodriguez 46 of 84 54% 35 of 67 7 of 11 4 of 6 30 of 63 2 of 4 14 of 17
Kevin Borjas 22 of 52 42% 17 of 45 3 of 5 2 of 2 20 of 49 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Imanol Rodriguez 12 of 22 54% 9 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 4 6 of 14 0 of 0 6 of 8
Kevin Borjas 12 of 23 52% 10 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Imanol Rodriguez 34 of 62 54% 26 of 50 6 of 10 2 of 2 24 of 49 2 of 4 8 of 9
Kevin Borjas 10 of 29 34% 7 of 25 1 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Borjas vs. Imanol Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-400); Borjas (+325)

Round 1
Making his UFC debut with six finishes in six fights, Mexico’s Rodriguez (6-0, 0-0 UFC) is en fuego and plans on handing fellow slugger Borjas (10-4, 1-3 UFC) his fourth loss in five walks to the Octagon. Keeping tabs on the flyweights will be referee Raul Porrata, ready to intervene at a moment’s notice after the fighters share a fist bump.
The unbeaten speedster starts off the fight by firing off several quick punches and kicks that are so fast, Borjas cannot do anything but watch as he absorbs them. Rodriguez beats him to the punch and kick repeatedly, and the counters do not even start to come back at him yet because he is out of reach seconds after he connects. Borjas uncorks a bomb of a left hand when Rodriguez swings in the pocket and sends him flying, and Porrata is just about to run and stop the fight. Porrata peels back as Rodriguez bounces back to his feet, and Borjas rushes at him and drops the youngster again. Rodriguez miraculously gathers his thoughts and completes enough of a takedown to put Borjas on his back and start recovering.
Rodriguez slows himself down, preferring to maintain top position and strike with his elbows rather than looking for a finish and burning out his gas tank. Rodriguez holds on from half guard, and Porrata starts calling for more activity. Rodriguez keeps busy with ground-and-pound, and Borjas clings to his man off his back. Rodriguez postures up and drills Borjas with a flush elbow, and Borjas ties him up again in hopes of getting the standup he seeks. Rodriguez slashes down with more elbows, covering Borjas’ mouth with his free hand to further make life miserable. Rodriguez’ elbows keep drilling the Peruvian athlete in the dome, but they do not wound him externally. Rodriguez jumps into mount with seconds to go, and Borjas climbs up when the bell sounds. Rodriguez gets in Borjas’ face when the round ends, and Porrata has to separate them and send them back to their respective corners.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Borjas
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Borjas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Borjas

Round 2
The fighters clap hands to get going in the second stanza, with Rodriguez striking first with a low kick and missing on huge haymakers that follow. Borjas kicks him back, and he is checked. Rodriguez darts in behind a left hook, and Borjas probes out with an intercepting jab. Borjas pump-fakes his hips as if to threaten with something, and this stifles Rodriguez from committing to much. Rodriguez pitches out single strikes at a time, and the two both offer front kicks. Rodriguez swings for the fences with a pair of punches, only for Borjas to be out of the way in time. Rodriguez swarms Borjas with a short flurry, and Borjas’ head movement keeps him relatively safe as he backpedals. When Rodriguez engages again, Borjas is ready in the pocket to trade back, resulting in Rodriguez pulling back a bit. The speed advantage is not nearly as significant, as Rodriguez runs forward and holds his left hand out to graze Borjas’ eye with his fingertips. Porrata calls time, and Borjas takes a few seconds to recover from what was a not-too-terrible eye poke.
Rodriguez punches his way into a frantic takedown shot, and he bangs into Borjas against the wall and is pushed back with a hard right hand. Rodriguez prods out his jab and shoots for a single, holding Borjas’ leg in the air and slugging him in the face with a trio of punches before disengaging. Borjas catches Rodriguez on the sides of the head with two punches, and Rodriguez freezes him with a shovel left uppercut. Rodriguez goes wild and falls over when swinging so hard, and he recovers to offer a spinning elbow that bounces off the guard.
Rodriguez digs a kick to the body and whips out a right hand that scrambles Borjas’ circuits. A stunned Borjas blinks a few times, but does not realize that he is as hurt as he actually is. Borjas’ spirit may be willing but his flesh is spongy and bruised. “El Gallo Negro” slumps to the floor, the fight having fully left his body, and he feebly holds his arms over his head to protect from the pounding he expects to come. Rodriguez lets him have it with a final barrage of standing-to-ground punches as Porrata rushes in to stop the fight
, and that makes it 7-0 for the youngster from Mexico. The crowd goes wild for their local fighter, who survived some adversity and made it out the other end with a knockout victory.

The Official Result
Imanol Rodriguez def. Kevin Borjas R2 4:21 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Imanol Rodriguez

Angelo picks Imanol Rodriguez, noting his fast, clean striking and one-punch knockout power. He highlights Rodriguez's heart and composure even in his loss, and believes he will win outright. He considers Rodriguez one of the safer larger favorites on the card.

"I got to go with the kid. I think he wins outright. ... I Rodriguez should win here. He's one of the only larger favorites on this card that you look at it and you're like, 'Yeah, we should absolutely …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Imanol Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Imanol Rodriguez, calling him a prospect to watch with impressive striking, volume, and forward pressure. He notes Kevin Borjas had a bizarre low-volume performance in his last fight and believes Rodriguez is better everywhere. He predicts a second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"Give me Emanuel Rodriguez to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Manuel Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez but worries about his tendency to go all-out and gas at altitude. He notes Borjas's poor striking defense and the poor record of his gym. He took Rodriguez by KO at +130 as a prop.

Rodriguez by KO +130
"I have a little bit of money on even by KO plus 130. That's how I got invested into this."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Imanol Rodriguez

Connor agrees, calling Rodriguez a triple-A prospect who looks like a future title contender. He notes that Borjas has some counterpunching ability but will struggle to deal with Rodriguez's ferocious pressure and speed. Connor believes Rodriguez's combination of athleticism and technical skill will be too much for Borjas.

Rodriguez's pressure; Borjas's counter right hand; Rodriguez's potential
"I think he's ready for it. I think he has that kind of natural athleticism."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Feb 20, 2024 (739 days before fight)

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)

The host believes Rodriguez is most likely to win but the odds are too wide at -454. He notes that Rodriguez is a grappler with good cardio, while Borjas is a volume striker who may fade at altitude. However, since Rodriguez is making his UFC debut and the odds are extreme, the host passes on betting.

"There's no doubt that Iman Rodriguez is most likely to win, but should he be a 1.22 minus 454 implied probability of 82% favorite over Kevin Borass in his UFC debut?"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Manuel Rodriguez

James is high on Rodriguez as a prospect, citing his impressive performance against Joseph Morales and his aggressive, powerful style. He believes Rodriguez's pressure and body work will break Borjas, who tends to fade under pace. James predicts a KO win for Rodriguez.

"I'm going to pick Iman Rodriguez here. I'm going to pick him via KO."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Imanol Rodriguez

The host picks Imanol Rodriguez inside the distance, citing his wrestling background, finishing ability, and overall advantages. He believes Rodriguez will land big shots, change levels, and work to a dominant position on the ground. He considers Rodriguez a future title contender and recommends him as a parlay piece.

Parlay piece
"I'm going to take Rodriguez inside the distance and I really wouldn't mind him as a parlay piece either here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Manuel Rodriguez

Paul is high on Rodriguez's talent, speed, and power. He notes Borjas's durability but lack of offense and poor recent form. He expects Rodriguez to land big shots and win, though he cautions about the -450 price and Rodriguez's inexperience.

"I do have INol Rodriguez to get the job done. But when you look at a mega prospect, and this kid's a mega prospect, do you put him all the way at the top? No."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Imanol Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Imanol Rodriguez, praising his boxing, head movement, and maturity. He notes that Rodriguez had a close split decision with Joseph Morales but showed good grappling, while Kevin Borjas only has a win over Ronaldo Rodriguez, who is not that good. He also mentions the Mexico City altitude advantage for Rodriguez.

"I'm going to go over Manuel Rodriguez. Good boxing, good head movement, good patience."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Imanol Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez as a blue-chip prospect with elite athleticism and a well-rounded game. He notes that Borjas is too dependent on being the stronger or more technical fighter, and Rodriguez is both athletic and technical. Rodriguez's wrestling and aggressive striking will overwhelm Borjas, who has struggled against better athletes.

Rodriguez's athleticism; Borjas's struggles against better athletes; Rodriguez's wrestling threat
"Yeah, you got to pick him. Rodriguez is a big favorite..."
LOSS vs Sumudaerji
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sumudaerji 0 73 of 129 56% 91 of 150 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:17
Kevin Borjas 0 16 of 44 36% 23 of 51 0 of 5 0% 0 0 3:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sumudaerji 0 17 of 35 48% 17 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Borjas 0 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
2 Sumudaerji 0 32 of 47 68% 36 of 51 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:17
Kevin Borjas 0 9 of 20 45% 15 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
3 Sumudaerji 0 24 of 47 51% 38 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Borjas 0 4 of 11 36% 5 of 12 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sumudaerji 73 of 129 56% 33 of 75 17 of 25 23 of 29 67 of 121 6 of 8 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 16 of 44 36% 7 of 30 5 of 7 4 of 7 10 of 37 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sumudaerji 17 of 35 48% 6 of 15 3 of 9 8 of 11 16 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 3 of 13 23% 1 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 3 1 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Sumudaerji 32 of 47 68% 14 of 25 7 of 8 11 of 14 30 of 44 2 of 3 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 2 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 17 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Sumudaerji 24 of 47 51% 13 of 35 7 of 8 4 of 4 21 of 43 3 of 4 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Su Mudaerji vs. Kevin Borjas

Round 1
Flyweights Sumudaerji and Borjas face off under the watchful eye of referee Vitor Ribeiro. Borjas is orthodox, Sumudaerji southpaw. “The Tibetan Eagle” throws a lunging side kick to the midsection. He follows up with a solid inside kick to Borjas’ lead leg. Sumudaerji with a high kick that slaps off his opponent’s raised guard. A minute and a half in, Borjas has thrown next to no strikes. Sumudaerji flicks out a long jab. Ribeiro pauses the action and cautions Sumudaerji about extending his fingers. They go back to work and Sumudaerji lands a loud low kick. Borjas comes back with a jab that glances, then changes levels and runs his man all the way to the cage. Borjas locks his hands and tries to elevate the taller man, but Sumudaerji uses an overhook/underhook and his height advantage to keep his feet firmly under him. They break off the clinch and go back to work in the middle of the cage, where Borjas continues to struggle with the range against the much taller man. Sumudaerji backs Borjas off with a side kick to the midsection at the 10-second clapper, then a pair of spinning back kicks—one from each side—right before the horn. Neither lands with much impact, but the impression is that Sumudaerji is starting to get into a flow.
10-9 Mudaerji.

Round 2
Sumudaerji paws Borjas’ face with an open hand in the first real exchange of the round, leading the Peruvian to back away blinking. Referee Ribeiro reiterates his warning, this time making it a “hard” one, for whatever that’s worth, before letting them go back to work. Sumudaerji reaches out with long side kicks again, landing to Borjas’ body, where they do their damage, but just as importantly, keep Borjas from getting anywhere near punching range. Borjas surges forward, clinches and shoves the taller man to the fence, where he is unable either to secure a takedown or land any short-range offense. They separate and return to open space, but Sumudaerji is still very much in control of the action there. Borjas lowers his head again and drives Sumudaerji to the cage, but “The Tibetan Eagle” uses an underhook to force a stalemate there. They disengage once again and Sumudaerji goes right back to working the Peruvian’s legs and body with his kicks. Under a minute to go and Sumudaerji opens up with a spinning back kick that lands to the midsection. The horn sounds on another frustrating round for “El Gallo Negro.”
10-9 Mudaerji.

Round 3
Borjas comes out aggressively to enter the final frame, forcing the issue rather than be stranded on the outside for yet another five minutes. Sumudaerji responds with a reactive takedown attempt which goes nowhere, but perhaps gives Borjas something else to think about. Borjas continues on the front foot, backing Sumudaerji to the fence, where he briefly sits him down with a clean punch. The Tibetan smiles and motions that it was a slip, which seems to fit the visual evidence, and they return to kickboxing. Sumudaerji throws a spinning wheel kick that glances without damage, and Borjas collapses the distance, clinching and shoving him to the fence. The referee separates them after a few uneventful moments, and they meet once again near the center of the cage, where Sumudaerji has thus far been an unsolvable riddle. Borjas steps inside a spinning technique, nearly takes Sumudaerji’s back standing, but settles for pushing him to the fence yet again. Under a minute to go and Borjas’ corner is imploring him to do something big. He tries his best, but only succeeds in opening up an opportunity for his foe to land a big elbow. That turns out to be the last significant offense of the fight, as the horn sounds moments later on a methodical near shutout for the Chinese fighter.
10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji).

The Official Result
Su Mudaerji def. Kevin Borjas via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Borjas

Angelo picks Kevin Borjas as the dog, calling him the better striker and more dangerous and durable. He notes that Sumudaerji is fast and accurate but lacks power. He suggests prop bets like win inside distance or plus 3.5 rounds, as he doesn't see Borjas getting stopped. He is confident in Borjas winning.

Suggests betting on Kevin Borjas win inside distance (decision no action) or plus 3.5 rounds.
"I'm going with the dog here. I think Kevin's the better striker and this is mostly going to be a striking matchup. Not only is Kevin the better striker, he's also the more dangerous of the two and the more …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Borjas

Big Brady picks Kevin Borjas to win a damage-based decision, despite Sumudaerji being a good striker. He notes that Sumudaerji has been submitted six times and has looked rough recently, but Borjas is not a grappler. He believes Borjas has power and can land big shots, and that Sumudaerji is not a finisher at this level. He expects a close fight with Borjas having big moments.

Borjas by decision
"I'm going to take Borhos to to win the fight here by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Borjas

Connor likes Borjas's game and thinks he will dictate the pace, forcing Sumudaerji to brawl. He notes that Sumudaerji tends to let opponents lead and then engages, but Borjas is a backfoot counter puncher who will likely start first. Connor worries about Borjas's defensive acumen and high chin, but believes Sumudaerji lacks knockout power, having only finished Malcolm Gordon in the UFC. He compares the fight to Sumudaerji's loss to Charles Johnson, where Johnson set the early pace and won.

"I really like borjas's game. I think sumudarji is a really interesting test for him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sumudaerji

The host acknowledges Borjas looked his best last time, but thinks he will struggle against the superior striking of Sumudaerji. He expects Sumudaerji to keep Borjas at bay, avoid counter-strikes, pick him apart, and win on the scorecards.

"I think he's going to struggle against the superior striking of Sumodargi. Look for Sumodargi to keep Borhas at bay, avoid most of the counter-strikes of Boras, pick him apart, and win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Sumudaerji

The MMA Guru picks Sumudaerji to win by decision, citing his range and ability to make fights low-output. He believes Sumudaerji's length will be a problem for Kevin Borjas, who he describes as a one-two merchant. He notes that Borjas had a close fight with Ronaldo Rodriguez, and that Sumudaerji looked good against Charles Johnson. He expects a 30-27 schooling victory.

Sumudaerji by decision 30-27
"I'm going to go with Summedi. I think his range is going to be a problem for Kevin Bas... I think Sumaduji is going to rise to the occasion and beat Kevin Bouras."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Borjas

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Borjas has shown good stuff in his fights and that Sumudaerji is a technical step up but not a huge one. He points out that Sumudaerji is tough but often starts fights going second, which could allow Borjas to take control. Zane also mentions that Borjas has never been knocked out and took shots from Ronaldo Rodriguez well, so Sumudaerji's lack of power is a factor.

"I think if he lets borjas start it then borjas is just gonna keep it."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ronaldo Rodríguez 0 64 of 151 42% 64 of 151 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:57
Kevin Borjas 1 83 of 141 58% 84 of 142 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ronaldo Rodríguez 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:43
Kevin Borjas 1 17 of 31 54% 18 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Ronaldo Rodríguez 0 17 of 42 40% 17 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:14
Kevin Borjas 0 23 of 33 69% 23 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ronaldo Rodríguez 0 37 of 84 44% 37 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Borjas 0 43 of 77 55% 43 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ronaldo Rodríguez 64 of 151 42% 31 of 110 11 of 16 22 of 25 63 of 149 1 of 2 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 83 of 141 58% 72 of 129 6 of 7 5 of 5 78 of 135 3 of 4 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ronaldo Rodríguez 10 of 25 40% 4 of 16 2 of 3 4 of 6 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 17 of 31 54% 13 of 27 2 of 2 2 of 2 14 of 28 1 of 1 2 of 2
2 Ronaldo Rodríguez 17 of 42 40% 7 of 30 3 of 4 7 of 8 16 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 23 of 33 69% 20 of 30 2 of 2 1 of 1 22 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Ronaldo Rodríguez 37 of 84 44% 20 of 64 6 of 9 11 of 11 37 of 83 0 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 43 of 77 55% 39 of 72 2 of 3 2 of 2 42 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Borjas vs. Ronaldo Rodriguez (127: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-170), Borjas (+142)

Round 1
Due to some card rejiggering, the catchweight contest between Rodriguez (17-2, 2-0 UFC) and Borjas (9-3, 0-2 UFC) is currently the main card opener. The fight was originally booked at 125 pounds, but “Lazy Boy” could not help himself and exceeded the divisional cap by a pound. Despite their differences in momentum, this is one of the matches tonight with the closest betting line, with Rodriguez still the favored man of the two both in the building and on the books. The fighters are ready, and referee Herb Dean is ready too. The crowd is alive, and the fighters are as energized as it gets. They choose not to touch gloves, and take advantage of the amperage. Both fighters aim at one another without pulling the trigger, until about 45 second passes. Suddenly, Rodriguez spins with a wheel kick that glances off the target, and his second attack is a jumping switch kick. Rodriguez uses kicks to back Borjas off, and Borjas walks him down and smashes him square in the jaw and sets him down. Rodriguez reverse-somersaults to roll through the knockdown blow, and somehow appears not compromises at all and in fact waves Borjas on. Rodriguez lands a few times to get back at Borjas, and he walks the Peruvian fighter down looking for a way in. A Rodriguez spin kick slaps off the raised hands, and he presses forward calmly with his right hand ready to fire. When Borjas catches his foe’s leg, Rodriguez yanks his limb free and resets. Borjas just misses with a one-two, and Rodriguez gets in a low kick and ducks away from a counter right hand. Borjas connects with another overhand right, and Rodriguez responds with kicks. A fireball of a Borjas right hand torches Rodriguez and knocks him off his feet again, and like before, “Lazy Boy” returns right back upright and is again prepared to brawl. Borjas enters and fires off more strikes, only to be met with a crisp right hand that stuns him. Rodriguez shoots into a takedown attempt, and Borjas times a jump knee and clacks it off Rodriguez’ knee. Rodriguez lifts his foe’s leg up and attempts to slam it down to simultaneously go for a takedown and hyperextend the limb. On his second try, Rodriguez gets his foe down. Time expires before he can do anything with the position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Borjas
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Borjas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Borjas

Round 2
Rodriguez is the initial aggressor in the second round despite getting dropped twice. He tries a jumping kick that is well off the mark, and Borjas lets it soar way past him. Rodriguez chips at the front leg with a kick as he settles himself down, and he springs into action with a looping left and a body kick on the other side. Rodriguez slaps the front leg with another kick, and he gets caught with a few jabs but slings heavy leather. Rodriguez just misses with a front kick, and he swings a left hand that turns out to be a strange level change. Borjas is easily out of the way, and once more he has a jump knee waiting for the shot that he expects and eventually comes from Rodriguez. Borjas stands in the pocket and drills his man with a one-two, and Rodriguez reels and re-enters the melee while pointing at the floor for more of that. Borjas does not go for broke, and Rodriguez chases him around the Octagon and scores a leg kick. Rodriguez has a wheel kick partially connect, and he sprints at Borjas to attack more. Borjas escapes, but he does not avoid the low kick that comes. Borjas stands his man up with a clean right hand, and Rodriguez answers him with a front kick straight up the middle. Rodriguez gets popped when kicking the front leg, as Borjas is prepared with counters, especially the power right. Rodriguez spins and his heel bounces off the chest, and he chains a low kick into a jumping switch kick. Borjas slips and moves, and he times a right hand that drops Rodriguez to a knee. Rodriguez, steel in his noodle, rebounds and crashes the pocket for a single-leg entry. Borjas defends it by putting his back to the wall, and he keeps his guard up to block a spinning back fist right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Borjas
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Borjas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Borjas

Round 3
Rodriguez runs out of his corner to attack with a big front kick to start things off, and Borjas easily deflects it. When Rodriguez engages, Borjas doubles up on a jab and rifles off his nasty right hand. Rodriguez keeps in the pocket throwing hands rather than backing off, resulting in Borjas ripping the body after. A right hand from the Peruvian fighter busts Rodriguez’ nose up, and Rodriguez chains a few punches together that get Borjas’ attention. Jabs are traded, and Borjas uses a right hand to break up a leg kick try. When Rodriguez throws, Borjas clacks him with his overhand right, a strike that seemingly cannot miss. Rodriguez jumps with a switch kick and then lands to toss out a wheel kick, but he is too close to do anything with it. This allows Borjas to plant his feet and blast him in the face with a mean right hand, and he seconds it with another that Rodriguez tries to absorb by leaning back. Rodriguez accepts that he will get jabbed as he starts loading up with more power, and he ducks and protects himself from a head kick that he nearly leaned into. Rodriguez gets stood up when throwing hands once more, and he lobs a low kick at his opponent. Borjas rolls with a punch and looses a few more, breaking up a combo with a head kick and then stifling Rodriguez with a second. Borjas checks a kick and points at Rodriguez, who came up gimpy from the shin-on-shin contact. Rodriguez bites down on his mouthpiece, blood streaming down his mouth, and he slings several failed wheel kicks and power strikes that do not connect. Rodriguez points to the mat to force a final brawl, and Borjas thinks twice and then decides to oblige him. Rodriguez clips him back, and he even has a cartwheel kick bounce off the Peruvian’s guard. Rodriguez pounds a leg kick home, and the two swing it out right to the final bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Borjas (30-27 Borjas)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Borjas (30-26 Borjas)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Borjas (30-27 Borjas)

The Official Result
Kevin Borjas def. Ronaldo Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
TKO (punches) R2 1:35 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alessandro Costa 1 46 of 86 53% 60 of 104 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:43
Kevin Borjas 0 18 of 56 32% 18 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alessandro Costa 0 16 of 45 35% 16 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Kevin Borjas 0 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Alessandro Costa 1 30 of 41 73% 44 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Kevin Borjas 0 3 of 18 16% 3 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alessandro Costa 46 of 86 53% 32 of 66 2 of 5 12 of 15 25 of 55 1 of 3 20 of 28
Kevin Borjas 18 of 56 32% 12 of 45 5 of 10 1 of 1 18 of 55 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alessandro Costa 16 of 45 35% 9 of 33 2 of 4 5 of 8 15 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 1
Kevin Borjas 15 of 38 39% 10 of 31 4 of 6 1 of 1 15 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alessandro Costa 30 of 41 73% 23 of 33 0 of 1 7 of 7 10 of 14 0 of 0 20 of 27
Kevin Borjas 3 of 18 16% 2 of 14 1 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Borjas vs. Alessandro Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-125), Borjas (+105)

Round 1
The UFC is back for its annual trip to Brazil, and it stacked the deck for the home nation by putting one Brazilian combatant against a foreigner in every bout. As a result, betting lines are lopsided towards the locals, with those from Brazil favored in 10 of the 13 fights. As most know, anything can and often does happen in MMA once the cage door closes, so it’s time to buckle up. The first of a baker’s dozen matchups comes in the flyweight division between two South American men that could both use a win. Costa (13-4, 1-2 UFC) has had the misfortune of facing two elite 125ers in his three walks to the Octagon thus far, while Borjas (9-2, 0-1 UFC) ran into the Burmese wall that was Josh Van in his promotional debut. The two will receive oversight from referee Joao Claudio Soares in this curtain jerker, and they get after it following a swift touch of gloves. The two flyweights measure one another early, trying to draw the other out with little more than movement and a pump-fake or two. Borjas paws out a range-finding jab, and Costa suddenly fires back with a one-two and a low kick. Costa surges ahead, stringing together a number of punches that bounce off and through the guard of his opponent. Costa whips a kick low to intercept Borjas coming in at him, and he stalks his man down. The Brazilian swarms forward, and Borjas shifts and rolls to avoid the damage. Costa changes levels for a takedown shot from a wide distance, and “El Gallo Negro” shucks it off before it turns into anything. Borjas paws out a few jabs, and he finds himself in a brief slugfest that gets his jaw jacked. Costa stands back to admire his work, and then blazes ahead to hammer his man with three punches on the side of the head and they crash heads together. A cut has opened up above Borjas’ ear, but he does not acknowledge it and tries to counter the advancing Costa with two flying knees. Costa shrugs them both off and lets his hand fly, and sporadic chants for “uh vai morrer” rain down from the fans. Costa takes the energy of the crowd and rifles off a jab that knocks Borjas off his feet, and he lets Borjas recover so that he can ring his bell with a pair of hooks. Borjas stumbles and gets back to his feet to leap in the air with a knee, and the round ends with Costa returning fire with his own flying knee that slams into the chest. Borjas throws his foe to the floor, and the round ends.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
The two men bump fists to open the round, and Costa gets right back to his advancing attack. Costa lays into his man with punches to the head, and he mixes up one to the body that appears to hurt the Peruvian. Costa sees and opening and unleashes a number of leg kicks that do serious damage and make Borjas limp. Borjas tries to tough it out, but Costa sweeps him off his feet with vicious low kicks. Costa chains a few punches together as Borjas backs himself against the fence, and he knocks Borjas to the ground again with a mighty calf kick. Seeing the finish might be around the corner, “Nono” leaps on top and drops jackhammering fists as Soares takes a close eye on the action. Borjas tries to scramble and nearly gives up his back, and as he turns over, Costa jumps on top of him into full mount.
Costa finishes the job with a long series of hammerfists and punches, and Soares has seen enough and waves off the fight to put Brazil on the board first.
This is an important win for the Brazilian, who evens his UFC record to .500 while also evening his distribution of knockouts to submissions at six apiece.

The Official Result
Alessandro Costa def. Kevin Borjas R2 1:35 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo sees this as a 50/50 fight but leans Costa due to his wrestling advantage. He notes Costa's low volume striking and power, but believes Costa's takedowns will be the difference, similar to Borjas' loss to Joshua Van. He explicitly says he's not betting on it because he doesn't trust Costa.

"I am going to pick alisandra kosa to win this fight but only because of the wrestling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Big Brady sees Costa as having more ways to win, including power on the feet and a grappling advantage. He notes Costa's BJJ black belt and slick ground game, though it hasn't been shown in the UFC yet. He predicts Costa will get the fight to the mat and secure a submission in the second round.

submission in round 2
"I'll take Costa to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Cody picks Costa, citing his powerful low kicks, takedown defense, and durability. He notes Borjas is a brawler with poor cardio and takedown defense. Cody expects Costa to land heavy shots and grind out a win.

"Costa for me..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Daniel Vreeland picks Costa, citing his experience against top competition (Albazi, Erceg), Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, and home crowd advantage. He notes that Borjas has volume but less experience at the UFC level. He believes Costa's grappling is a key advantage and even took a small bet on Costa by submission at +550.

Costa by submission +550
"I do think that Costa gets the job done here probably uh and I even took a small shot on Costa by submission here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Borjas

Borjas had a hot start in his UFC debut but blew his wad too early. He is expected to learn from that mistake and put on power striking pressure against Costa, eventually finding a knockout within two rounds.

knockout within two rounds
"I expect him to learn from that mistake this time around and put on the power striking pressure here against alisandra Costa and eventually find The Knockout within two rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Paul picks Costa, emphasizing his takedown defense and power. He notes Borjas leaves openings and has been taken down easily. Paul expects Costa to land damaging blows and win.

"I got to go with Costa to get the job done."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa based on athleticism, speed, power, and strength, especially against the cage. He notes Costa's rough UFC run but highlights competitive rounds against top flyweights like Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi. He predicts a TKO in the second round, citing Costa's finishing potential and power advantage over the relatively unknown Kevin Borjas.

TKO in the second round
"I'm going to go with alesandro Costa getting this one done by TKO in the second round"
LOSS vs Joshua Van
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joshua Van 0 156 of 300 52% 165 of 311 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:03
Kevin Borjas 0 75 of 197 38% 78 of 200 0 of 3 0% 0 1 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joshua Van 0 20 of 42 47% 20 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Kevin Borjas 0 23 of 58 39% 24 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
2 Joshua Van 0 77 of 144 53% 77 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Borjas 0 27 of 74 36% 27 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Joshua Van 0 59 of 114 51% 68 of 125 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:02
Kevin Borjas 0 25 of 65 38% 27 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joshua Van 156 of 300 52% 92 of 227 49 of 57 15 of 16 153 of 295 3 of 5 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 75 of 197 38% 54 of 170 9 of 12 12 of 15 73 of 193 1 of 2 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joshua Van 20 of 42 47% 9 of 27 5 of 8 6 of 7 17 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 23 of 58 39% 14 of 45 1 of 3 8 of 10 23 of 57 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Joshua Van 77 of 144 53% 46 of 110 27 of 30 4 of 4 77 of 143 0 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 27 of 74 36% 23 of 68 3 of 4 1 of 2 27 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Joshua Van 59 of 114 51% 37 of 90 17 of 19 5 of 5 59 of 114 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Borjas 25 of 65 38% 17 of 57 5 of 5 3 of 3 23 of 62 1 of 1 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Borjas vs. Joshua Van
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-218), Borjas (+180)

Round 1
A pair of once-beaten whirling dervish flyweights will take center stage next in a fight that might not last terribly long. Both Van (8-1, 1-0 UFC) and Borjas (9-1, 0-0 UFC) celebrate one decision apiece, so referee Mike Beltran is ready to intervene at a moment’s notice given their respective paces. They do not bother touching gloves before going about their business. Van prods out early with a low kick as Borjas misses on range-finding jabs, but Borjas manages to find the target once or twice. Van jabs to the midsection, and Borjas turns his hips into a leg kick. When Van does not acknowledge it, Borjas kicks the same spot. This prompts Van to his own low kick, in which Borjas retaliates immediately with a front kick to the midsection. Borjas circles back, pops out a leg kick, and gets chin-checked with a sharp jab. Borjas replies with a solid strike, and both men are largely aiming single strikes at one another. They go tit-for-tat with jabs and leg kicks, with neither showing a large advantage, although Van puts a little more into his strikes that mostly go wide. Borjas pokes the midsection with the ball of his foot, and Van chambers and fires two stern calf kicks in a hurry. Borjas continues feeding Van a steady diet of frustrating jabs, although those and his kicks are largely all that connect until he jumps forward with a switch kick and tags Van with a right hand. Borjas spins with a wheel kick that grazes off the guard, and he rushes at his opponent and hurts Van with a right hand and sets the youngster on his seat. Van shakes out the cobwebs as Borjas crashes forward and drills him in the chest with a jump knee. Van ricochets off the fencing and looks for counters, but Borjas is able to evade the brunt of them and strike back. A number of jabs and hefty leg kicks find their home for “El Gallo Negro,” and he runs forward in pursuit of a left hook that Van narrowly evades. When Van resets, Borjas slams his shin on the calf of his foe. Borjas sticks and moves with his jab, and he sneaks a front kick in and is driven back with a left hook from the fighter born in Myanmar. Borjas races forward, the bridge of Van’s nose trickling blood, and he ties Van up in a clinch against the fence until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Borjas
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Borjas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Borjas

Round 2
The second round opens with the two testing one another, but the pace picks up in a hurry when Van starts to crowd his opponent. Borjas leans back and belts Van with a left hook, and Van bounces away and recovers. Borjas keeps on his bike as Van pursues him, picking away with jabs and leg kicks as Van closes in. Borjas changes levels, only to go up high with a big one-two, and Van sways and looks to loop two punches together in response. Van walks face-first into a jump knee and does not bat an eye, and Borjas whips a kick to the body to follow. Van embodies his “The Fearless” nickname by striding forward, unfazed, and he connects with a big right hand on the jaw. Van finds his range with a short combination that ends with a head kick, and he rips the body when Borjas looks to escape. Van marks up the Peruvian with a number of head and body shots, and he backs off to measure a spinning wheel kick that careens off the shoulder. Van digs two heavy shots to the body and goes up top, and he continues working the midsection with a litany of strikes. As Borjas drops his hand, Van boots him upside the face. Borjas steels himself and nails Van in the face with a right hand, and Van completely shrugs it off and continues his high-pressure approach. Borjas keeps away, not letting Van crowd or corner him, but Van is still able to find the liver with a left hand. Van sneaks in a number of jabs and lets Borjas overswing in a counter, and he eats a left hand and keeps right on plodding forward. Van continues to mix his strikes up to the head and body, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Van
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 3
The two flyweights reach the final frame, and Van is ready to pick up right where he left off and sticks out a number of jabs in rapid succession. Van targets the lead leg when not jabbing, and Borjas responds with a right to the breadbasket and a clapping calf kick. Borjas sits down on counters, connecting cleanly with a few, but Van no-sells them and fires right back fearlessly. When Borjas swings hard, Van level changes and lifts Borjas up so he can slam him down. Borjas scrambles, allowing Van to drop back and pursue a leglock. Borjas is able to break the submission setup up so he can stand up, and they both so do. Van continues to press the pace, and he connects with numerous shots before attempting a single-leg takedown. The 22-year-old bails on it so he can open up with strikes to the head, which then allow him to work the body. The offense of Van continues to keep his foe guessing, and Borjas tries to retaliate and counter with step-in knees or other single powerful blows, but Van largely sees them coming and blocks or dodges them. Van jabs up high, punches the body and then kicks low to light up all targets like the dummy on “Three Ninjas.” Van shows no sign of slowing, flowing with offense and chaining strikes together. Borjas tags him with a jump knee, and Van takes a right hand on the chin that shakes him up. A rattled Van maintains the composure to get hold of a body lock and throw Borjas down to the mat, and he quickly steps over to half guard. From there, Van sneaks into side control and looks to maintain a crucifix that turns into a scarf hold with an armlock. Borjas brilliantly sweeps “The Fearless” and dumps him on his back, where he uses the position to take the back. As Van continues to move wildly, he gets back on top. Van rides out the round on top with a few ground strikes, concluding a thrilling 15-minute affair.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)

The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Kevin Borjas via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Angelo picks Van, citing his patience, cardio, and grappling advantage. He thinks Van can avoid Borjas' combinations and use takedowns. He avoids betting due to the short odds and Van's youth, but believes Van is the more well-rounded fighter.

"Josh is going to be the pick here I'm going to avoid betting especially at the two to1 odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Big Brady picks Joshua Van to win by second-round knockout. He is impressed by Van's power for a flyweight and his slick submission game. He notes Borjas is willing to eat one to give one and has been hurt before, which is dangerous against a power puncher like Van. Brady trusts Van's durability and defensive soundness in what he expects to be a war.

Van by second-round knockout
"Give me Joshua Van to win this fight, I'll take him to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Cody picks Van, impressed by his debut win over Zhalgas Zhumagulov on short notice. He notes Van's footwork, timing, and athleticism, and thinks he'll only improve with a full camp. He expects Van to outpoint Borjas with counters and maybe mix in takedowns.

"van full Camp getting older look good to me man so I gotta I got to go with him here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Van has a huge technical striking advantage over Borjas, being too slick and fast on the feet. Even if Borjas tries to take it to the ground, Van has improved takedown defense and submission ability off his back. Borjas has faced poor competition and this is too big a step up. Expects Van to run away with the fight and possibly find a finish later on.

"I like van here and I wouldn't even be surprised if van ends up finding a finish later on in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Paul picks Van, noting his impressive performance against Zhumagulov and his cardio. He thinks Van's striking and movement will be too much for Borjas, who is making his UFC debut. He sees Van as a legitimate prospect.

"van was pretty impressive against Jus for a 21y old kid... I'm with you van is the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Joshua Van

The MMA Guru picks Joshua Van, impressed by his debut win over Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He notes Van's composed striking, good jab, low kicks, and Muay Thai style. He thinks Van is better than Kevin Borjas and will win with his striking technique.

"I'm gonna go with Joshua van I was really impressed with Joshua Van's debut... I just think his striking technique is going to be the difference in this fight"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Angelo sees this as a 50/50 fight but leans Costa due to his wrestling advantage. He notes Costa's low volume striking and power, but believes Costa's takedowns will be the difference, similar to Borjas' loss to Joshua Van. He explicitly says he's not betting on it because he doesn't trust Costa.

"I am going to pick alisandra kosa to win this fight but only because of the wrestling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Big Brady sees Costa as having more ways to win, including power on the feet and a grappling advantage. He notes Costa's BJJ black belt and slick ground game, though it hasn't been shown in the UFC yet. He predicts Costa will get the fight to the mat and secure a submission in the second round.

submission in round 2
"I'll take Costa to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Cody picks Costa, citing his powerful low kicks, takedown defense, and durability. He notes Borjas is a brawler with poor cardio and takedown defense. Cody expects Costa to land heavy shots and grind out a win.

"Costa for me..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Daniel Vreeland picks Costa, citing his experience against top competition (Albazi, Erceg), Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, and home crowd advantage. He notes that Borjas has volume but less experience at the UFC level. He believes Costa's grappling is a key advantage and even took a small bet on Costa by submission at +550.

Costa by submission +550
"I do think that Costa gets the job done here probably uh and I even took a small shot on Costa by submission here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Borjas

Borjas had a hot start in his UFC debut but blew his wad too early. He is expected to learn from that mistake and put on power striking pressure against Costa, eventually finding a knockout within two rounds.

knockout within two rounds
"I expect him to learn from that mistake this time around and put on the power striking pressure here against alisandra Costa and eventually find The Knockout within two rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

Paul picks Costa, emphasizing his takedown defense and power. He notes Borjas leaves openings and has been taken down easily. Paul expects Costa to land damaging blows and win.

"I got to go with Costa to get the job done."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alessandro Costa

The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa based on athleticism, speed, power, and strength, especially against the cage. He notes Costa's rough UFC run but highlights competitive rounds against top flyweights like Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi. He predicts a TKO in the second round, citing Costa's finishing potential and power advantage over the relatively unknown Kevin Borjas.

TKO in the second round
"I'm going to go with alesandro Costa getting this one done by TKO in the second round"