UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg Next Fight
Age 29
Height 5' 11"
Reach 75"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 31
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Maurício Ruffy
4.19 SLpM
58.0% Str. Acc.
4.09 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jamie Mullarkey
4.1 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
4.28 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
2.46 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Maurício Ruffy - Fight History
SCHED vs Michael Chandler
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

AJ sees this as a Ruffy showcase, calling it a 'squash match.' He believes Ruffy's striking is elusive and slick, and that Chandler, at 40, is too slow and wild. AJ notes that Chandler's best path is wrestling, but he doubts Chandler will use it effectively. He expects Ruffy to counter Chandler's blitzes and knock him out, likely in the later part of round one or round two. AJ acknowledges Chandler's wrestling pedigree but thinks Ruffy's takedown defense has improved and that Chandler will walk into a counter.

Ruffy by KO at -200; Ruffy round 2 KO at +400; Ruffy round 3 KO at +600; fight starts round 2 with Ruffy KO at +200
"I think this is the squash match. You know, it's the Rofy showcase at the White House. His striking is elusive. He's incredibly slick. He's terrifying to be on the feet with."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert pick date unknown

AJ does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.

AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lock pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

AJ is extremely confident that Ruffy will knock out Chandler. He highlights Ruffy's precision striking, power, and reach advantage, while noting Chandler's age (40), recent losses, and lack of setups. He believes Chandler's only chance is an early slam, but Ruffy's grappling is improving and he will destroy Chandler on the feet.

Ruffy by KO (-195), Ruffy under 2.5 rounds (-210), Ruffy KO under 1.5 rounds (+120), Ruffy wins round 1 (+140), Ruffy wins round 2 (+380), Ruffy KO round 2 (+430), Ruffy wins under 1.5 rounds (-105), parlay Ruffy moneyline and under 1.5 rounds (-105)
"Mauricio Ruffy is an easy pick here. Mauricio Rufi is going to destroy Michael Chandler."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

AJ picks Ruffy to win by knockout, describing his striking as surgical and rangy. He believes Chandler is too reckless on the feet and has slowed down, making him vulnerable to Ruffy's counter shots. AJ predicts Ruffy will pick Chandler apart from distance and find the kill shot, possibly in the second or third round.

Ruffy by KO and fight to reach round 2 (+200), Ruffy KO round 2 (+425), Ruffy KO round 3 (+700)
"I think Mauricio Ruffy is about to cook the side of Michael Chandler. I think he's about to put him out, man."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Angelo is very confident in Mauricio Ruffy, calling it one of the most obvious picks on the card. He notes Ruffy's nasty striking and power, and that Chandler is likely to fight for entertainment rather than using his wrestling. He acknowledges Chandler's durability but believes Ruffy will win, possibly by finish.

Angelo says Ruffy should find a finish but Chandler is randomly tough, so he's not sure about the method.
"Mauricio Ruffi is going to get the win. Obviously, one of the more confident picks on this card."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Angelo picks Maurício Ruffy, stating that Chandler will stand and trade, get dotted up, and wrestle too late. He notes that Ruffy learned from his loss to Benoit Saint-Denis and that Chandler is 40 years old and doesn't use his wrestling effectively.

"I think Mauricio Ruffy wins this fight. I do hate that these odds are starting to go bananas."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Big Brady picks Maurício Ruffy to win by second-round knockout. He argues that Chandler, at 40 years old with waning durability and poor cardio, will struggle to maintain his wrestling pace. Once the fight stays on the feet, Ruffy's power and striking will overwhelm Chandler, leading to a knockout. He also likes the prop 'Ruffy by knockout' on Underdog.

Higher than Mauricio Ruffy on knockouts (0.5) on Underdog
"I'm going to take Hoofy to win here. I'm going to take Huy to win by second round knockout."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Big Brady is very confident in Maurício Ruffy, citing Michael Chandler's age (40), recent poor performances, and cardio issues, especially in the humid conditions. He believes Ruffy has a big striking advantage and expects Chandler to slow down and get caught. However, he notes the odds are terrible and suggests avoiding the moneyline, instead considering props like under 2.5 rounds.

under 2.5 rounds, fight doesn't go to decision, Ruffy by KO -200
"I don't like Michael Chandler in this match. I mean he's 40 years old. He's looked rough these last couple fights."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Connor picks Ruffy, calling him a pale reflection of Conor McGregor but just as lethal. He notes that Chandler is a one-round fighter who looked completely physically cooked against Pimblett, and that Ruffy's wrestling and footwork were atrocious against someone like Chandler. However, he acknowledges a non-zero chance that Chandler could replicate Ben Askren's takedown and win.

"Michael Chandler is going to get fucked up."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Daniel Levi picks Maurício Ruffy to knock out Michael Chandler. He highlights Ruffy's diverse striking arsenal, including calf kicks and unorthodox techniques, and notes Chandler's susceptibility to calf kicks and chinny nature. Levi believes Ruffy's takedown defense is underrated and that he can weather Chandler's early wrestling. He expects Ruffy to chop down Chandler's calf and find a finish upstairs, possibly with a pull counter or spinning attack.

Ruffy by KO; Ruffy -800 favorite; Chandler +575 underdog; also included in Braco super boost parlay with Topuria and Hokit
"I'm going Mauricio Huffy to extend the win streak and I think he gets it done with one shot."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert pick date unknown

The host sees Ruffy as a huge favorite (implied 84%) but notes Chandler has a grappling advantage and Ruffy looked dreadful on the ground against Benois Sandeni. However, Chandler is old (40), has bad cardio, and may not grapple enough. The host passes on betting, calling it dog or pass but not betting Chandler either.

"It's another very easy pass for me."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Jacob picks Maurício Ruffy, simply stating that Ruffy will hurt Chandler and probably knock him out in the first or second round. He calls it an easy pick.

"Ruffy knocks them out. I bet at first, maybe second round, that's just what's going to happen. It's pretty easy."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Lucrative James picks Maurício Ruffy to win via knockout in round one. He argues that Chandler is washed up at 40, with only two UFC wins and a recent poor performance against Pimblett. He believes Ruffy's striking, speed, and youth will be too much, and that even if Chandler wrestles early, Ruffy will eventually land a kill shot. He also notes Ruffy's improved wrestling training with Volkanovski.

Maurício Ruffy via knockout, round one
"My prediction is Mauricio Ruffy wins this fight via knockout in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

The host notes Ruffy is a near -800 favorite and expects him to find Chandler's chin and knock him out under one and a half rounds. He cites the odds as justification for the confidence.

under 1.5 rounds, KO
"I expect him to eventually find that chin of Chandler and knock him out under one and a half rounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Ruffy is faster, has more knockout power, and should have good enough grappling defense to avoid Chandler's takedowns. Chandler is 40, on a losing streak, and tends to crash the pocket, which plays into Ruffy's countering ability. Expects Ruffy to land a big shot and finish via KO, likely in round 1 or 2.

Ruffy KO round 1 or 2; under 1.5 rounds (-135)
"I think Ruffy finds a chin of Chandler and puts him away pretty easily here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

The Guru picks Maurício Ruffy by flying knee KO. He notes Chandler's tendency to lean over his lead leg when moving forward, which makes him vulnerable to a jumping knee. He expects Ruffy to sting Chandler early, then time a flying knee as Chandler comes in, knocking him out cold. He compares it to Pimblett's finish of Chandler.

flying knee KO
"I'm taking Maurício Ruffy by brutal, disgusting, despicable palms up, slime out KO in the first round. ... I think Maurício Ruffy's going to time him with a jump knee as Chandler comes in."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Zane also picks Ruffy, stating that Chandler is at a point where he can be pushed out of a fight and has never looked worse. He notes that Ruffy is a huge favorite and that Chandler's only chance is an early takedown, but that Ruffy's speed and power will likely overwhelm him. He also mentions that Ruffy might be crazy enough to lose, but still picks him.

"Michael Chandler is going to get fucked up."
WIN vs Rafael Fiziev
KO R2 4:30 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Ruffy 0 36 of 66 54% 37 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 1 55 of 88 62% 60 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Ruffy 0 16 of 33 48% 17 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 18 of 28 64% 21 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
2 Maurício Ruffy 0 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 1 37 of 60 61% 39 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Ruffy 36 of 66 54% 9 of 31 15 of 19 12 of 16 34 of 64 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 55 of 88 62% 45 of 77 4 of 4 6 of 7 42 of 66 1 of 2 12 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Ruffy 16 of 33 48% 2 of 12 7 of 11 7 of 10 14 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 18 of 28 64% 13 of 22 2 of 2 3 of 4 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Maurício Ruffy 20 of 33 60% 7 of 19 8 of 8 5 of 6 20 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 37 of 60 61% 32 of 55 2 of 2 3 of 3 24 of 38 1 of 2 12 of 20
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-122), Fiziev (+102)

Round 1
It’s a striker’s delight in the “featured fight of the night” slot, as lightweights in need of a big win lock ‘em up. “Ataman” Fiziev (13-4, 7-4 UFC) may have struggled having to face Justin Gaethje twice in the span of about two years, but he righted the ship last June by taking out Ignacio Bahamondes. On the other side of the equation, Fighting Nerds staple Ruffy (12-2, 3-1 UFC) saw his mighty win streak come to a crashing halt last year when the co-headliner Benoit St. Denis wrangled and tapped him. This ranked lightweight contest where only man will remain in the top 10 when the dust settles will be officiated by referee Dan Movahedi. The heavy hitters touch gloves before handling their business.
Ruffy in a wide stance holds the center of the cage, avoiding a sweeping low kick while keeping his lead hand dangerously low. The head movement allows Ruffy to dodge a sudden head kick, and he answers with a quick leg kick. Fiziev slowly works his way forward, cutting off the cage and darting in behind a single left hand. Ruffy tosses out another kick, and Fiziev drills him with one that is far heavier. Fiziev ducks away from a tie-up attempt and goes low with another hard kick. Ruffy is not responding well to the calf kicks from the Tiger Muay Thai striking instructor, and Fiziev pressures him all the way to the wall to force a clinch. Ruffy turns him around, and Fiziev is able to escape out the side and nail the body with a kick. Ruffy offers a spinning elbow that is not accurate, and Fiziev walks him down without fear of reprisal.
Ruffy steps in to strike, and he gets caught with a pair of punches and a surprise head kick. Fiziev keeps Ruffy on the back foot, whipping him with kicks to remain pinned to the wall. Ruffy chains a low kick into a step-in knee, and Fiziev barely dodges in time. Both men go to the body, with tit-for-tat powerful single striking exchanges. Ruffy largely throws one at a time, while Fiziev walks through them and fires of his own combos. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy

Round 2
The athletes meet in the middle, with Fiziev starting off with strong body kicks. Ruffy replies with a solid right hand to back him off, and he spins with a back kick that Fiziev evades in time. Fiziev kicks low and then to the ribs, and he ducks under a sweeping left hand. Ruffy sneaks in a right hand over the top, and he partially checks a low kick. Fiziev rushes in with a left hook, and he keeps his opponent skirting on the back wall. They trade punches, with Fiziev taking a low kick on the way out that he does not defend well. Ruffy prods out a few jabs and is met with a hard body kick, and he winds up with a huge right hand that Fiziev takes flush.
Fiziev spins with a wheel kick and bounces off, and he resets without Ruffy taking advantage of it. Fiziev kicks at the front calf, and is answered with one from his opponent. Fiziev digs a right to the midsection, and then ducks in to go left to the liver. Ruffy retreats, and he takes low kicks on both sides. Ruffy reaches out with a right, and he bats Fiziev upside the head with a standing back fist. Fiziev walks Fiziev down and boots him in the liver again, and he gets backed off with a straight jab but is right in front of Ruffy. Ruffy measures his man and blasts Fiziev in the face with a right hand down the pipe, and Fiziev goes squirrely and on ice skates trips around the cage barely able to stay upright. Movahedi thinks to step in, but allows them to keep fighting. Ruffy does not go wild, instead picking his shots and methodically clobbering Fiziev with ground strikes. Fiziev still has his head on a swivel, and he sways and moves so that he can work his way back to his feet, but after several more blistering right hands, he is in a bad way as his balance has completely abandoned him.
Ruffy is able to bully Fiziev down to the ground again, partly due to Fiziev clinging to consciousness with figurative stars over his head like a "Street Fighter" character, and he unloads with a brief but final, concussive bombardment of punches until Movahedi does intervene.
This is a huge triumph for Ruffy, earning easily the biggest win of his career by putting away a renowned muay thai striker and trainer.

The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. Rafael Fiziev R2 4:30 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael Fiziev

Angelo picks Rafael Fiziev, stating he is the better traditional striker and has shown he can wrestle and grapple, which is a key advantage. He notes that Ruffy is creative and powerful but was frozen by takedowns in his last fight. Fiziev has dog in him and made adjustments in his last fight. Angelo sees value at minus 115 given their resumes.

minus 115 seems like solid value
"Raphael Faziv is the pick and minus 115 given their resumes honestly seems like solid value here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Big Brady slightly leans toward Maurício Ruffy in a close striker's delight. He notes Fiziev has slowed down in the third round historically and didn't look great against Gachi after injury. Ruffy is a high-level striker with flashy spinning attacks and won't fade. Brady sees it as a 29-28 split decision either way, but expects Ruffy to take over late.

"I'm going to ever so slightly lean with Mauricio Hufi to win a very close decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael Fiziev

Cody believes Fiziev is undervalued as a slight underdog. He criticizes Ruffy's reliance on flashy knockouts and low volume, noting that Ruffy was outstruck by James Llontop and only landed 3 significant strikes before his wheel kick KO of Bobby Green. He praises Fiziev's veteran savvy, volume, and ability to mix in wrestling, predicting a close decision win for Fiziev.

"Phys's he's got more volume by the numbers, but not like a runaway amount. The difference is if you want to go punch for punch with Raphael Phys, he lands eyecatching stuff, man."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael Fiziev

Connor picks Fiziev, arguing that Ruffy is a smoke-and-mirrors fighter who is not a natural counter puncher and struggles when pressured. He notes that Fiziev is a superior technician with good takedown defense and that Ruffy's only path to victory is a lucky knockout. He also points out that Ruffy's wins are against slow or limited opponents, while Fiziev has fought elite competition.

Odds: Fiziev +105, Ruffy -125. Connor is surprised Fiziev is the underdog and notes the line is moving.
"I have to pick Fiziev. It's just, yeah, totally. There's a well fighting a superior technician who is super fast and who's only real weakness is a sort of like loss of cohesion late in the fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Daniel Vreeland picks Ruffy as a dog, viewing the line as a market overcorrection. He believes Ruffy is a special striker who can match Fiziev's speed and technique, and that Fiziev has slowed down since his ACL surgery. Vreeland also notes that Ruffy has improved by training with Volkanovski and that Fiziev lacks a ground threat, making this a striking match where Ruffy can win.

"I took Mauricio Hui at plus 107 odds. I put one unit on it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

James picks Ruffy to win by KO, citing Ruffy's youth, distance control, and timing advantage. He believes Fiziev is on a downtrend and may be hesitant to engage. James notes Ruffy's training with Volkanovski and that Fiziev's wrestling won't be effective. He sees Ruffy's durability and power as key factors.

"I got Rua in this one, boys. I got Rua via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael Fiziev

Fiziev is a nasty Muay Thai striker with good speed, combinations, and countering ability. He has improved his wrestling, as shown in his last fight where he landed four takedowns. Ruffy struggles with grapplers and was broken mentally by Saint Denis. Fiziev's durability is ironclad, and he should push the pace, counter effectively, and mix in takedowns. The host is baffled that Fiziev is the underdog and expects a finish in round two or three.

Fiziev by knockout round 2 or 3
"There it is. Raphael Fizz by knockout round two or round three."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael Fiziev

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ruffy is overvalued due to his flashy style and that Fiziev is a more complete fighter. He highlights Fiziev's ability to mix in takedowns and his experience against top competition. He expects Fiziev to win a close decision.

"I think Faze can hang with this guy on the feet. Ruffy if he wins will win like big huge exciting kind of moments but veteran savvy sneak in a takedown round and kind of just scrape by on probably …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael Fiziev

The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, citing his superior striking, timing, and ability to chop at opponents with kicks. He notes Ruffy's weaknesses in fundamentals and predicts Fiziev will win by decision, possibly 29-28. He expects Ruffy to have a good third round but Fiziev's technical edge will prevail.

decision 29-28
"I'm going with FizzV, dude."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafael Fiziev

Zane picks Fiziev, emphasizing that Ruffy is limited strategically and relies on time and space to set up shots. He notes that Fiziev is a capable, controlled striker who can crowd Ruffy and take him down if needed. He also mentions that Ruffy's takedown defense is poor and that Fiziev's only losses are to elite fighters like Gaethje and Gamrot.

Odds: Fiziev +105, Ruffy -125. Zane notes that Fiziev was the underdog but the line is quickly shifting.
"I think that Fiziev will crowd him. He's just the more technical striker and the guys that have beat him are really, you know, it's Justin Gaethje who could take a war to him and then a leg injury against …"
Submission R2 2:56 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Benoît Saint Denis 0 17 of 38 44% 37 of 61 3 of 10 30% 1 0 4:38
Maurício Ruffy 0 5 of 17 29% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Benoît Saint Denis 0 6 of 18 33% 19 of 32 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:04
Maurício Ruffy 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Benoît Saint Denis 0 11 of 20 55% 18 of 29 1 of 5 20% 1 0 1:34
Maurício Ruffy 0 4 of 11 36% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Benoît Saint Denis 17 of 38 44% 9 of 26 8 of 12 0 of 0 9 of 26 3 of 3 5 of 9
Maurício Ruffy 5 of 17 29% 4 of 14 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Benoît Saint Denis 6 of 18 33% 2 of 12 4 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 2
Maurício Ruffy 1 of 6 16% 0 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Benoît Saint Denis 11 of 20 55% 7 of 14 4 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 12 1 of 1 5 of 7
Maurício Ruffy 4 of 11 36% 4 of 10 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Benoit St. Denis vs. Mauricio Ruffy
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-200); St. Denis (+170)

Round 1
Buckle up, buckaroos. The co-main event is here, and it should be a wild one. St. Denis (14-3, 1 NC; 6-3 UFC) and Ruffy (12-1, 3-0 UFC) are about to trade. Nothing more needs to be said, other than that referee Herb Dean is standing by. The lightweights touch gloves. Here we go.
St. Denis introduces himself with a body kick, and then slings one up high. St. Denis rushes at the Brazilian with a looping left hand, and Ruffy bounces off the fencing. St. Denis drops to his knees in pursuit of a double, and he wrangles Ruffy to the mat in about 40 seconds. St. Denis steps over to half guard, side control and then full mount less than one minute into the bout. The crowd is predictably going nuts before St. Denis even starts setting up a chest pressure-based arm-triangle choke. Ruffy turns over to give up his back as St. Denis starts raining down punches, and he tries to pursue a choke while Ruffy stands up. Ruffy spins his opponent around while in a body lock, and he explodes back to his feet. St. Denis times a head kick and goes after a takedown, so Ruffy responds with an intercepting knee. St. Denis tackles the Brazilian to the mat, and he assumes full mount but actually steps to the side so he can retain a controlling posture.
St. Denis gets in a body lock from behind as Ruffy scrambles to turn to his back, and this allows St. Denis to assume full mount again. St. Denis wraps up an arm-triangle choke, and he has it tight but the Fighting Nerds export is able to tough it out. St. Denis drills him with a few ground strikes, and Ruffy muscles his way to his feet. The two tie up against the fencing, jockeying for position and trading knees. St. Denis lands a knee to the groin, or so Ruffy claims to Dean repeatedly. Dean asks the replay official to check the foul, which indeed struck him below the belt. Ruffy gets time to recover as the audience showers him with boos and then songs. Ruffy states he is good to go less than a minute in, and they get back to it. Ruffy wings a big uppercut that misses the mark, and he is countered by a head kick, jab and takedown attempt. Ruffy rebounds off the fencing and takes a flush jab on the way out. St. Denis kicks high and slaps into the guard, and he goes after two kicks to the ribs. St. Denis launches one more head kick that is blocked as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 St. Denis
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 St. Denis
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 St. Denis

Round 2
The second round begins with St. Denis faking a takedown to open up with a head kick. St. Denis hurls a body kick and is jabbed back with a vengeance. Ruffy jumps in the air with a knee that staggers for a second, and St. Denis steels himself and forces himself into a takedown effort. St. Denis gets Ruffy down, but the Brazilian times a picture-perfect reversal to plant the local athlete on his back. St. Denis immediately opens up with an active guard, and Ruffy abandons ship and stands back up, where he misses a huge right hand. St. Denis walks him down and punches his way into a takedown shot, and a knee from St. Denis makes Ruffy cry foul once more. Dean is not hearing it this time, possibly because it is deafening in the arena. St. Denis wrangles his opponent to the ground, grappling him from behind and getting in his hooks.
With the body triangle in play, St. Denis starts clubbing Ruffy on both sides of the head. This softens the Brazilian up, so that St. Denis can fasten a rear-naked choke grip on the chin.
Ruffy is tucking in his chin to protect his neck, and St. Denis squeezes with everything he has. Ruffy is calm and composed, but the face crank is crushing his skull as the French fighter is empowered by the audience that is going positively bonkers at this point. St. Denis does not relent with his vice grip on the jaw, and Ruffy’s eyes go wide as he has tap out with the end of his fingers from the nasty submission.
At that moment, no one in the building can hear themselves think, as the legion of screaming masses explode in support of the man named “God of War.” Until today, Ruffy had never been submitted. He won’t be able to say that anymore, but he is nothing but gracious and professional as he congratulates St. Denis for beating him. That makes 11 finishes this evening, tying the UFC’s single-event record. What a night it has been, and we still have one more to go.

The Official Result
Benoit St. Denis def. Mauricio Ruffy R2 2:56 via Submission (Face Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Angelo picks Maurício Ruffy confidently, criticizing the hype around Saint Denis. He points out Saint Denis' losses where he was dominated, and argues that Ruffy's dynamic striking and takedown defense will be too much. He believes Ruffy will 'style on' Saint Denis and land clean, big shots. He plans to parlay and bet on Ruffy but is waiting for the line to tighten further.

planning to parlay
"Mauricio Ruffy should run through Benois Saintini."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Big Brady picks Maurício Ruffy, believing he will dominate on the feet. He notes Saint Denis has poor striking defense (41%) and has been knocked out before. He thinks if Saint Denis cannot get takedowns, he is in trouble. He predicts a first-round knockout.

Ruffy by knockout, round 1
"I'm going Hoofy by knockout. I'm going to take Hoofy to win this fight and win it by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Connor picks Ruffy, believing he might knock Saint Denis out. He notes that Saint Denis has a Patrick Cummins-like ability to take clean shots and that his defensive flaws are severe. Connor thinks Ruffy's accuracy and power will find a home, and that Saint Denis's aggressive style plays into Ruffy's hands. He acknowledges that Ruffy's level of competition is questionable but sees the potential for a spectacular finish.

"I'm going to pick Ruffy. I think he might knock Saint Denis out."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Benoît Saint Denis

The host acknowledges Ruffy's flashy knockout style and fan support but believes he is not ready for Saint Denis's grapple-heavy, smothering approach. He expects Saint Denis to grapple Ruffy, take his back, and sink in a rear-naked choke for a submission victory.

submission (rear-naked choke)
"I think we'll see BSD go out there grapple Huffy eventually get the back and I think it's just a matter of time before he sinks in that rear naked choke and forces the submission from the Brazilian."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

The Guru picks Maurício Ruffy with high confidence, citing Ruffy's speed, shot selection, and ability to set traps. He criticizes Saint Denis' slow, chin-up striking and believes he is ripe for a knockout. He predicts a first-round KO, comparing it to McGregor vs Aldo, and dismisses concerns about Ruffy's grappling.

first round KO
"I'm going with Mauricio Hafi and I'm very confident in Mauricio Huffy as well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Benoît Saint Denis

Zane picks Saint Denis because he knows what Saint Denis will do—aggressive pressure and physicality—and he doubts Ruffy is ready for that sustained onslaught. He notes that Ruffy's wins have come against inferior athletes and that his trick-striking style may not hold up against a relentless forward fighter. He acknowledges that Saint Denis is vulnerable defensively and may gas, but believes his pace will overwhelm Ruffy.

"I'm picking Benoît Saint-Denis. That's why is it, I know what Benoît Saint-Denis is going to do and he's going to go out there and he's going to try and crush Maurício Ruffy with pace and pressure and physicality."
WIN vs King Green
KO R1 2:07 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Ruffy 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Ruffy 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 4 of 15 26% 1 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 5 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Ruffy 4 of 9 44% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 4 of 15 26% 1 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 5 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Ruffy 4 of 9 44% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bobby Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-470), Green (+360)

Round 1
Two 155-pound strikers will light up the T-Mobile Arena to open up the main card. Green (31-16-1, 1 NC; 13-11-1, 1 NC UFC) has seen better days but is still dangerous even at the age of 38, but he will have to mind his P’s and Q’s against the man 10 years his younger in Ruffy (11-1, 2-0 UFC). Before the frenetic action, referee Chris Tognoni makes sure to keep things official and starts the fight. Ruffy offers a glove, but Green would rather just fight. Green backs himself intentionally to the wall, hands low, ready to counter. Ruffy is composed rather than a marauder, and he blocks a push kick when standing in front of his opponent. Ruffy is keeping Green confused with his rangy punches and movement, and this results in a stalemate and stretches of inactivity. When Green kicks low, Ruffy rings his bell with a straight right hand. Green bounces off the wall and gives a right hand back, but it has far less mustard on it than the one that shook him up. Green surges forward with a left high and a right to the ribs, and chants for “Let’s Go Ruffy” start spreading. The Brazilian absorbs all of this energy from the audience and channels it like a Spirit Bomb, only instead of into his hand, he puts it into his right foot. A picture-perfect spin from Ruffy delivers the wheel kick square into the side of Green’s head, and Green is immediately unconscious and slumps face-first the ground like he got shot by a sniper. Absolutely incredible! Forget “Knockout of the Year,” that wheel kick is up there when it comes to “Knockout of the Decade,” much less one of the best in company history. Unreal. The crowd is electric, no one can hear anyone think. Knowing that there is nothing else he needs to do tonight, Ruffy stands stoically above his fallen opponent, while Tognoni sprints in to make sure Green does not take any more damage. Meanwhile, blood pours out of the nose of the flattened Green, who manages to come to and eventually makes it back to his feet. With plenty of energy left in the tank, Ruffy goes off to perform several flips and capoeira moves, sticking the landing each and every time to further wow the fans. The Fighting Nerds have one more highlight on the reel, and the victorious Ruffy dons his team’s famed glasses and gives commentator Joe Rogan a pair to sport as well. Knowing exactly what he wants next, Ruffy calls for a headlining opportunity against Beneil Dariush. The UFC would be hard pressed to pass that up. Wow. What a knockout. Mauricio Ruffy is for real.

The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. Bobby Green R1 2:07 via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Connor picks Ruffy despite acknowledging that stylistically, Green should be able to outbox him. He notes that Green has been getting hurt more often and fighting in a way that leaves him vulnerable to big punchers. Connor believes that even if Green has a good first round, he is likely to get knocked out eventually. He admits the line is too wide and that Ruffy has yet to prove himself against veteran talent.

Odds: Green opened at +405, now +345; Ruffy opened at -654, now -468. Connor thinks the line is too wide.
"I think at this point, I have to feel like even a veteran performance out of Bobby Green is going to be him doing really well for a round, a round and a half, whatever, and just getting melted by …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean pick date unknown
King Green

Zane picks Green, hoping for a vintage performance. He believes that if Green doesn't get knocked out, he can outwork Ruffy with smarter reads and better cardio. Zane points out that Ruffy struggled against James Llontop, who is slow and clumsy, and that Green is a much more technical boxer. He acknowledges the risk but wants to see Green replicate his win over Nasrat Haqparast.

Odds: Green opened at +405, now +345; Ruffy opened at -654, now -468. Zane thinks the line is too wide.
"I'm picking it openly because I want it to happen. Yes. I think it's actually, it's a, you know, it is actually quite possible that Bobby Green can can look. Okay. If he, if he doesn't get knocked out, I …"
WIN vs James Llontop
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Ruffy 1 67 of 113 59% 74 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
James Llontop 0 90 of 236 38% 112 of 260 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Ruffy 0 21 of 31 67% 21 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
James Llontop 0 19 of 63 30% 19 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Maurício Ruffy 1 24 of 42 57% 25 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
James Llontop 0 26 of 78 33% 28 of 80 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
3 Maurício Ruffy 0 22 of 40 55% 28 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
James Llontop 0 45 of 95 47% 65 of 117 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Ruffy 67 of 113 59% 53 of 97 6 of 8 8 of 8 57 of 101 3 of 3 7 of 9
James Llontop 90 of 236 38% 29 of 143 39 of 62 22 of 31 75 of 215 15 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Ruffy 21 of 31 67% 13 of 23 3 of 3 5 of 5 21 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
James Llontop 19 of 63 30% 6 of 36 7 of 14 6 of 13 19 of 62 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Maurício Ruffy 24 of 42 57% 21 of 39 0 of 0 3 of 3 16 of 32 1 of 1 7 of 9
James Llontop 26 of 78 33% 8 of 49 10 of 19 8 of 10 25 of 76 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Maurício Ruffy 22 of 40 55% 19 of 35 3 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
James Llontop 45 of 95 47% 15 of 58 22 of 29 8 of 8 31 of 77 14 of 18 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
James Llontop (166.2: Missed Weight) vs. Mauricio Ruffy
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-800), Llontop (+550)

Round 1
One of the largest betting favorites on the card—but still trailing the top name in a huge way tonight—will be Fighting Nerds export Ruffy (10-1, 1-0 UFC), who battles the skidding Llontop (14-4, 0-2 UFC) instead of Charlie Campbell. “Goku” might be in for a rough night, facing an adversary with a 100% knockout rate compared to his own at 50%. There will be no energy blasts allowed in this catchweight contest, so “Goku” will need to rely on his strikes alone. Before hitting the cage, the underdog required accommodations to shift this lightweight match to one at 165, pounds, and he still could not reach that limit. Seeing that Llontop’s back is against the wall, referee Kevin MacDonald checks the fight in, and observes a quick fist bump. Ruffy moves directly to the center of the cage, hopping out of the way of a leg kick and then dodging a second. Ruffy slowly edges forward, measuring a counter right hand but not letting it go. No strike lands until Ruffy connects with a jab 45 seconds in. Llontop whiffs on the counter, and Ruffy jabs him in the belly. Ruffy kicks the front leg and slides out of the way. Llontop surges forward, and Ruffy easily parries the strikes and gets kicked in the midsection at the end. Ruffy connects with a sharp jab and absorbs a low kick, and both men get behind a jab. Ruffy swings for the bleachers with a monstrous right hand, and he only buzzes past the hair of his adversary. The Brazilian smoothly dodges winging punches coming his way, and a few jabs get in on him. Ruffy uses his own jab to break up a big swing, and Llontop goes to the body to follow. Llontop prods out with jabs, and his body kick slips under the elbow. Llontop looses three big punches, and the right hand in the middle of it clips the favorite. Ruffy fires back, only to miss the mark. Two hard leg kicks from Ruffy draw a reaction out of his opponent, who surges into action with a lunging right. Llontop kicks the body and then the front leg, and Ruffy sits down on a shovel uppercut that nearly detaches Llontop’s head from his body. Llontop manages to avoid it in the nick of time, and he kicks the body of his adversary. Ruffy rips a right hand over the top, and he nails the underdog with a big left. Ruffy times a massive right hand that hurts Llontop, and he spins with a tornado kick and falls over. Llontop allows him to stand so he can blast him in the face with a right hand. Ruffy takes it on the chin and lands a punch and spins with a back kick to the ribs. Llontop kicks the front leg once before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy

Round 2
Before the round begins, the crowd chants “USA” but it is unclear who they are supporting between the Brazilian and the Peruvian. They get right to business after tapping gloves, and Ruffy starts promisingly with a spinning kick to the lead leg. Llontop chews up Ruffy’s front leg with a few kicks, and they both connect with jabs. Ruffy tries to time a jab with a spinning back fist, and Llontop is able to block it. Llontop walks the Brazilian down and pitches out a front kick, and he mixes things up with a leg kick and a few punches. Ruffy laughs it off and decks “Goku” with a ferocious left hand, and Llontop rolls around on the ground to regain his composure and work his to his feet. Llontop’s left eye begins swelling in a hurry, and he tries for a takedown but is shoved out of the way. Llontop doubles up on a jab, and Ruffy has his hands low and dodges back to avoid anything further. Ruffy blasts his foe in the face with a right hand from the depths of Hades, and Llontop is tough as nails and keeps on coming forward. Ruffy slips several jabs and a head kick with his hand on his hip, so Llontop goes after the front leg with kicks. Ruffy narrowly misses a big left hand counter when Llontop rushes forward, and he connects with a perfect right hand on the busted eye that stuns Llontop completely. Llontop shakes out the cobwebs, and he goes back to attacking with heavy punches. Ruffy busts him open with his mean right hand, and he lets Llontop dive after a takedown so he can counter him. Ruffy backs off, parrying and blocking a few punches, and Llontop is busy as can be. Ruffy times counters and hops away from big punches so he can pay Llontop back in spades. Ruffy throws everything he has, and he stops after missing and puts both hands on his hips. It is unclear if he is tired or trying to goad Llontop on, but the round ends before anything comes of it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy

Round 3
There is a clap of hands to open up the last round, and Llontop is ready and rearing to go. Ruffy gets behind his jab early, using it to set up and draw out strikes. Llontop kicks the side of his opponent, and Ruffy tries to slip away but is grabbed by the Peruvian. Llontop dirty boxes until Ruffy turns him around, and he misses with an elbow on the break. “Goku” is fighting just as aggressively as before, pushing the pace and not fearing Ruffy’s attacks. Ruffy’s volume diminishes as he looks for single home run strikes, and one big left misses. Llontop drives knees to the body when he ties the favorite up, and a right hand from Ruffy on the break skims the side of his head. Ruffy scores two punches and Llontop kicks his front leg on the kneecap twice. Ruffy goes wide with booming right hands, his hands low when not striking. Llontop beats on Ruffy’s front leg with kicks, and Ruffy gets sick of taking these kicks and punches Llontop in the face a few times. Llontop kicks low and then high, and he drops down after a single that fails. Llontop tries again, and when the takedown comes up short, he knees Ruffy in the chest. Two hard inside leg kicks from Llontop get Ruffy’s attention, and the Peruvian is picking it up while Llontop is flagging. Llontop stomps on the toes when he gets up tight, grinding on Ruffy and working the body with knees and punches up top. Ruffy dodges and slides away when Llontop tries to trap him, and he appears somewhat compromised when his leg gets kicked hard. Ruffy goofs around and dances in place, lifting up a no-look elbow when he sees Llontop coming at him. Ruffy connects with a blistering right hand when Llontop approaches, and he is swinging for the fences. Llontop does the same, and they let one another have it until the final horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Llontop (29-28 Ruffy)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Llontop (29-28 Ruffy)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Llontop (29-28 Ruffy)

The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. James Llontop via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Angelo is very confident in Maurício Ruffy, describing him as an insanely good striker with movement like prime Conor McGregor. He expects Ruffy to defend takedowns and pick apart James Llontop, who is tough but not very technical. He predicts a showcase win for Ruffy.

"very confident in Mauricio ruffy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Big Brady picks Maurício Ruffy, though he thinks the line is too wide. He notes that Ruffy is a very good striker with length, speed, and power, but sometimes starts slow. He believes James Llontop has never been finished but will likely eat big shots due to his aggressive style. Brady predicts a third-round knockout, as Ruffy has a 100% finish rate.

"I like kouy 100% finish rate I think he keeps that intact I'll take huy to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Cody picks Maurício Ruffy by knockout, citing his power and finishing ability. He notes Ruffy has knocked out all his opponents and is a product of the Fighting Nerds gym. Cody likes Ruffy by knockout at minus 145 or better, and is not worried about the money line.

by knockout
"ruy or ruy by knockout is uh minus 200 at cool bet so it's kind of been a little bit steam there but there's still like minus 135s minus 150s out there seems like the play to me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Connor also picks Ruffy confidently, agreeing that Llontop is slow and cumbersome, while Ruffy is a fast counter striker. He expects Ruffy to land clean counters and finish the fight. Connor criticizes the matchup as a squash match.

Ruffy wins via KO/TKO
"mariso hoofy is gonna win me... He's going to murder yon top with a couple of really well timed counters."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Daniel Vreeland picks Maurício Ruffy, highlighting his size, counter-striking ability, and potential to submit or ground-and-pound. He notes Llontop's slow speed and tendency to leave openings, and believes Ruffy can win by knockout, submission, or decision. He mentions Ruffy's training at Fighting Nerds and his well-rounded game.

"I think huy is gonna do his thing here man and move on and uh take another step up the ladder"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Vreeland picks Ruffy because he hits very hard and Llontop takes too many punches. Even if Llontop is durable and doesn't get knocked out, Vreeland believes the early violence will be bad enough that Llontop will be down two rounds and cannot finish Ruffy. He expects Ruffy to throw an absurd amount of strikes and win by decision or late finish. He also notes that Llontop took 15 minutes of damage from Slava Claus, and Ruffy hits harder.

Maurício Ruffy higher than 40.5 significant strikes (Underdog fantasy)
"I think the violence early is going to be bad enough for him... I don't see him finishing Huffy so like Mauricio Huffy is my pick"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Fox picks Ruffy because he is a heavy favorite and Llontop is taking the fight on short notice, which is bad against a powerful striker. He notes Ruffy's knockout power and Llontop's recent losses. Fox is confident Ruffy will win, though he acknowledges the line is steep.

"obviously I'm taking hoofy I'm not taking someone on short notice especially against guy probably gonna have to do a a uh a quick weight cut... against a guy who rattles your brain around in hoofy"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Lucrative James leans toward Maurício Ruffy to win but is skeptical of the -800 price, which he attributes to hype and recency bias from Ruffy's viral scissor sweep. He acknowledges Ruffy's dynamic striking and finishing upside but notes Ruffy has been knocked out before. He thinks Llontop can make it close and that the true line should be around -300. He will not bet on Ruffy at -800 but picks him to win before doing full tape study.

"I'll pick ruffy to win before doing research I do think he will get the win here but I don't think he should be- 800."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

The host thinks the odds are too wide but believes Ruffy is the slicker striker. He expects Llontop's aggressiveness to get him countered, but notes Llontop has solid durability, so the fight likely goes over 1.5 rounds with Ruffy winning on the scorecards.

over 1.5 rounds
"odds way too wide in my opinion here but I do believe that ruffy is the Slicker striker of the two fighters here laop's aggressiveness will get him countered and touched up but laop has shown solid durability throughout his …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
James Llontop

Paul picks James Llontop as an underdog, citing his durability, cardio from training at altitude, and volume striking. He notes Ruffy has been knocked out before and has never gone to the third round, while Llontop has a deep gas tank and has never been knocked out. Paul thinks Llontop can take Ruffy's shots and outwork him late, possibly winning a decision.

"I'm in minus 240 I'm in minus 310 I start to question a little bit but yeah he would be my pick minus 900 woof I'm not"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

The MMA Guru picks Maurício Ruffy, expecting a first-round TKO. He notes Llontop took heavy damage in his last fight and is fighting on short notice. He believes Ruffy's flow state striking and power will overwhelm Llontop.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Mauricio Huffy getting this one done first round TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Zane picks Ruffy confidently, noting that Llontop is slow and hittable, while Ruffy is a fast counter striker. He thinks Ruffy will land well-timed counters and finish Llontop. Zane criticizes the matchup as a squash match.

Ruffy wins via KO/TKO
"mariso hoofy is gonna win me... He's going to murder yon top with a couple of really well timed counters."
TKO (punches) R1 4:42 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Ruffy 1 25 of 40 62% 25 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Jamie Mullarkey 0 14 of 38 36% 14 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Ruffy 1 25 of 40 62% 25 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Jamie Mullarkey 0 14 of 38 36% 14 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Ruffy 25 of 40 62% 21 of 35 0 of 1 4 of 4 22 of 37 1 of 1 2 of 2
Jamie Mullarkey 14 of 38 36% 7 of 28 4 of 6 3 of 4 14 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Ruffy 25 of 40 62% 21 of 35 0 of 1 4 of 4 22 of 37 1 of 1 2 of 2
Jamie Mullarkey 14 of 38 36% 7 of 28 4 of 6 3 of 4 14 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jamie Mullarkey vs. Mauricio Ruffy
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-175), Mullarkey (+145)

Round 1
A striker’s delight at 155 pounds will treat fans to conclude the early preliminary portion of the fight card. With all of his wins and losses coming via knockout, Ruffy (9-1, 0-0 UFC) makes no bones about what he wants to do to willing brawler Mullarkey (17-7, 5-5 UFC). Fists are sure to fly in high quantity and intensity, but before they do, referee Mike Beltran checks them in. Before fists meet faces, they come together sportingly. Ruffy drops down to the floor to drill Mullarkey’s low calf with a Mortal Kombat-esque sweeping kick, and Mullarkey just looks at him. Mullarkey looks for a head kick that misses the mark, and Ruffy hammers his lead leg with a more traditional kick. Ruffy pokes out a jab that reddens the nose of his opponent, and he lands another that gets Mullarkey’s attention. Ruffy puts power behind his strikes, and multiple parts of Mullarkey are red in a hurry. Mullarkey slaps a body kick home, and it is one-and-done as he slips away. Ruffy turns to roll with a heavy right hand just in the nick of time, and he powers out a jab and a winging right hand. Ruffy hammers the lead wheel, and another jab of his opens a cut on the bridge of the nose. Ruffy slips a punch and nails Mullarkey with a right hand, and Mullarkey is tough as a two-dollar steak after eating that without flinching. Mullarkey pursues his own jabs, and Ruffy spins with a wheel kick that gets around the guard. Mullarkey crowds him with a punch salvo, and Ruffy shifts and moves and throws back with a few. Mullarkey keeps powering forward, and Ruffy’s defense is able to keep him safe from most of the harm. Mullarkey fakes a takedown, but Ruffy ignores it and smashes Mullarkey in the face with a ruthless right hand. Ruffy has a right hand skim the top of the head, and he ignores a left hand coming back at him. Ruffy dodges a wide right hand, and he leaps forward to trip Mullarkey up with a flying scissor sweep. Both men hit the ground, but they stand back up and trade. Ruffy beans Mullarkey with two stern right hands, and he times a perfect jump knee that smashes open Mullarkey’s nose. Beltran thinks about stopping the fight but lets it play out a bit longer, and Ruffy does not miss a beat as Mullarkey falls to the ground and climbs back up.
The Brazilian fearlessly marches forward, and he unloads with a long string of punches until Mullarkey collapses in a heap. With Mullarkey on his hands and knees about to take some unnecessary damage, Beltran calls a stop to the fight to save the tough Aussie from himself and the onslaught of the UFC newcomer.
This is a statement introduction for Ruffy, who dons the thick-rimmed glasses of his camp, The Fighting Nerds. Ruffy leaps on top of the cage to celebrate his handiwork, and the crowd goes wild in support of their fighter.

The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. Jamie Mullarkey R1 4:42 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Angelo picks Ruffy based on skill sets alone, citing his power and takedown defense. He expresses concern about the huge step up in competition and stage for Ruffy, and notes Mullarkey has been knocked out multiple times. He only considers a bet on Ruffy by knockout if the odds are good.

Angelo says 'the only bet I would even consider is potentially ruffy by knockout' but only if odds are favorable
"I'm going to have to go with the powerful Striker that can defend takedowns I don't love it I don't love it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Big Brady emphasizes Mullarkey's poor chin and Ruffy's power, predicting a first-round knockout. He notes Ruffy's low volume but believes he will land a fight-ending shot. He also mentions a prize pick play on Ruffy under 46.5 significant strikes.

under 46.5 significant strikes (PrizePicks)
"I'm taking him to win by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Cody picks Ruffy, citing his knockout power and Mullarkey's questionable chin. He notes Ruffy is coming down from 170 and has finishing ability. Cody expects Ruffy to knock out Mullarkey early.

Ruffy by KO
"Ruffy by knockout for me..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Daniel Vreeland picks Ruffy by KO, citing his 100% finish rate and sniper-like counter right hand. He notes Ruffy's excellent takedown defense and calf kicks that slow opponents. He believes Mullarkey's chin is vulnerable and that Ruffy will find the big shot in the second or third round after frustrating Mullarkey on the feet.

Ruffy by KO/TKO
"I think huy is going to stop the takedowns and I think maybe in the scrambles... we're going to see huy land something big"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Ruffy is on a four-fight winning streak and utilizes a Conor McGregor-like striking style with a straight punch down the pipe. Mullarkey has been knocked out three times in the last two years, so his chin won't hold up against Ruffy's precision striking. Ruffy wins by knockout.

knockout
"give me huffy and Huffy by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Paul picks Ruffy, highlighting Mullarkey's history of getting knocked out and Ruffy's power. He notes Mullarkey's takedown threat is minimal and Ruffy's striking will be too much. Paul expects a knockout.

"I got to go with Mauricio Ruffy... it's just a matter of time before he gets something blown up on his chin."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

The MMA Guru picks Maurício Ruffy, believing Jamie Mullarkey is on borrowed time in the UFC. He criticizes Mullarkey's recent performances and close decisions, while praising Ruffy's power, finishing ability, and toughness shown on the Contender Series. He expects Ruffy to win, possibly by knockout, and notes Ruffy's size and dangerous striking.

"I'm going to go with him to win this fight he's big he's dangerous he's got knockout ability"
Jamie Mullarkey - Fight History
Submission R1 3:02 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Quillan Salkilld 0 5 of 8 62% 18 of 21 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:39
Jamie Mullarkey 0 1 of 4 25% 6 of 9 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Quillan Salkilld 0 5 of 8 62% 18 of 21 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:39
Jamie Mullarkey 0 1 of 4 25% 6 of 9 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Quillan Salkilld 5 of 8 62% 1 of 2 1 of 2 3 of 4 3 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jamie Mullarkey 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Quillan Salkilld 5 of 8 62% 1 of 2 1 of 2 3 of 4 3 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jamie Mullarkey 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jamie Mullarkey vs. Quillan Salkilld
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Salkilld (-850), Mullarkey (+500)

Round 1
The UFC knows exactly what it did matching these two Aussies together. On the one hand, rising talent Salkilld (10-1, 3-0 UFC) is coming off a huge knockout and the biggest win of his career. On the other is a chinny, off-and-on striker in Mullarkey (18-8, 6-6 UFC) whose last four defeats have all come from punches in bunches. Betting odds are massively lopsided in favor of the 26-year-old, and referee Dan Movahedi will serve as the arbiter of what some have called a mismatch. In the sport of MMA, there are no sure things, other than that these two countrymen will touch gloves—and do—to begin.
Salkilld keeps a wide berth early to find his range, slapping the lead leg with a few kicks before shooting for a double. He puts Mullarkey down on his hands and knees, but Mullarkey is able to get up thanks to the wall behind him. Salkilld dings him with a short punch and an elbow, and Mullarkey shuts down the additional takedown effort and turns him about in the clinch. Mullarkey lifts up a single, and he dumps the younger man to the floor. Salkilld bounces up and counters with his own single, and Mullarkey connects with several punches before Salkilld bails on it. Salkilld then puts his arms up in the air to signal that he was not harmed by any of the blows, so Mullarkey runs at him and lifts up a knee on the way. He closes the distance to get hold of Salkilld, wrapping his arms around the waist and looking for some takedown, and Salkilld turns the tables of him and drops him square on his head.
Salkilld wraps his legs around the body to lock up a triangle, and he grabs hold of a rear-naked choke that is on the chin.
He elects to crank the neck to the side rather than get a choke, and with a full head of steam, he squeezes. The torque from the sub is too much for Mullarkey to bear, and because of the excruciating neck crank, he forces Mullarkey to tap out.
The victorious Salkilld promptly climbs to the top of the cage to celebrate, while declaring that he is now 4-0 in the promotion with his sights set high.

The Official Result
Quillan Salkilld def. Jamie Mullarkey R1 3:02 via Submission (Neck Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Quillan Salkilld

Angelo picks Quillan Salkilld, citing his well-rounded skills, good takedown defense, and BJJ black belt. He notes that Jamie Mullarkey has no chin and will likely look to wrestle, but Salkilld's takedown defense and jiu-jitsu are good. He acknowledges Mullarkey's volume but says without a chin he can't hang. He plans to bet on Salkilld once odds are available.

will probably have a bet on him
"Qualin should win this fight. I'm going to pick him to win. I We don't have odds yet. But once we do, I will probably have a bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Quillan Salkilld

Big Brady is very confident in Quillan Salkilld, calling Jamie Mullarkey's chin the second worst in the UFC. He notes Mullarkey was running from Rolando Bedoya and is likely finished. Salkilld has first-round knockouts in his last two fights, and Brady expects the same here.

Salkilld by KO in round 1
"Give me Quill and Sill by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Quillan Salkilld

Cody is very confident in Salkilld, citing his well-rounded game, takedown defense, and power. He notes that Mullarkey has a weak chin and has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He expects Salkilld to win by knockout, likely in the second round.

Salkilld by KO
"Salk is like minus 900, but if you go over into the props section here, by KO is like minus 125. I got money on that."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Quillan Salkilld

Connor picks Salkilld, describing him as a creative counter puncher with good eyes and diverse tools. He notes that Mullarkey is slow, not durable, and relies on crashing into opponents, which plays into Salkilld's strengths. He also mentions that Salkilld finished Haqparast, who also finished Mullarkey, indicating a clear stylistic advantage.

Odds: Salkilld -900, Mullarkey +600. Connor notes the odds are wide but justifies the booking as a step back for Salkilld to gain experience.
"Salkilld is a counter puncher. If you give him space, he will eat you up with creative things. He will make you have to make decisions."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Quillan Salkilld

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Salkilld to dominate and likely finish Mullarkey. He praises Salkilld's durability, knockout power, and wrestling, while noting that Mullarkey is a veteran past his prime. Vreeland expects Salkilld to either knock him out or outwork him en route to a clear win.

"I'm expecting pure dominance by Quinnland Southfield."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Quillan Salkilld

James picks Salkilld to win by finish, calling him a rising force in the lightweight division. He believes Mullarkey is an aging veteran with durability issues and that Salkilld will run through him in round one or two.

"I'm taking Quilan Sal Keel here all day long via finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Quillan Salkilld

Salkilld is a BJJ black belt with dangerous striking, as shown by his headkick knockout of Nazaret Hackparast. He is on a 10-fight win streak and has good cardio. Mullarkey is a veteran but has durability issues and is on short notice. The host expects Salkilld to win but thinks the line is too high; he prefers the over 2.5 rounds at +125 because Mullarkey may grapple and make it competitive early. Salkilld should pull away late for a decision or late finish.

over 2.5 rounds (+125); Salkilld by decision
"I think Skild will end up landing more damage throughout this matchup. And I think he ends up winning it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Quillan Salkilld

Paul agrees, highlighting Mullarkey's history of getting knocked out and Salkilld's impressive wrestling and striking. He notes that Salkilld is younger, bigger, and more durable. He expects a finish, possibly by knockout.

"I like this kid. I think he's getting better. I faded him a little bit against Hack Ross last time out thinking Nazarro would have a lot of veteran savvy... but I like him a lot and nine to one. …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Quillan Salkilld

The Guru picks Quillan Salkilld, calling him a level above Jamie Mullarkey. He notes Salkilld's finishing ability and predicts a first-round TKO, comparing it to Ruffy's win over Mullarkey. He acknowledges the odds are excessive but agrees with the pick.

first round TKO, odds -1200
"I think Quill and Sfield's going to win this one by first round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Quillan Salkilld

Zane picks Salkilld, agreeing that Mullarkey is a bad matchup for himself. He notes that Mullarkey has to be able to crash into opponents with strikes, clinch, and wrestling, but Salkilld can stop him at any point and strand him in a vulnerable position. He also points out that Mullarkey's wins are against older or slower fighters, while dynamic athletes tend to catch him.

Odds: Salkilld -900, Mullarkey +600. Zane says the odds are wide but it's a good booking for Salkilld's development.
"That seems like a nightmare matchup for Jamie Mullarkey. Slow, not durable, has to be able to do everything."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Mullarkey 0 43 of 89 48% 47 of 94 3 of 17 17% 0 0 5:41
Rolando Bedoya 0 46 of 116 39% 55 of 129 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Mullarkey 0 3 of 8 37% 3 of 9 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:49
Rolando Bedoya 0 5 of 10 50% 8 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamie Mullarkey 0 15 of 27 55% 18 of 30 0 of 8 0% 0 0 1:38
Rolando Bedoya 0 10 of 33 30% 15 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jamie Mullarkey 0 25 of 54 46% 26 of 55 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:14
Rolando Bedoya 0 31 of 73 42% 32 of 75 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Mullarkey 43 of 89 48% 32 of 74 7 of 10 4 of 5 40 of 82 3 of 6 0 of 1
Rolando Bedoya 46 of 116 39% 32 of 93 8 of 13 6 of 10 37 of 99 9 of 16 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Mullarkey 3 of 8 37% 1 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
Rolando Bedoya 5 of 10 50% 2 of 5 0 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Jamie Mullarkey 15 of 27 55% 12 of 22 2 of 3 1 of 2 13 of 24 2 of 3 0 of 0
Rolando Bedoya 10 of 33 30% 6 of 25 2 of 4 2 of 4 8 of 28 2 of 5 0 of 0
3 Jamie Mullarkey 25 of 54 46% 19 of 47 5 of 6 1 of 1 24 of 51 1 of 3 0 of 0
Rolando Bedoya 31 of 73 42% 24 of 63 6 of 7 1 of 3 24 of 62 7 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey despite his weak chin, because he believes Mullarkey is the better overall fighter with good grappling and striking. He notes that Mullarkey's opponent Rolando Bedoya has no power and is essentially a human punching bag. Angelo is surprised Mullarkey is the underdog and thinks the line will swing back.

"I think Jamie Malarkey wins this fight. I don't have a bet on him just yet. I'm going to keep an eye on the line. It's kind of tightening, but it hasn't tightened enough for me to be like, 'Ah, …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rolando Bedoya

Big Brady picks Rolando Bedoya to win by third-round knockout. He argues that while Mullarkey is more skilled, his chin is extremely fragile and he has been knocked out or dropped repeatedly. He believes Bedoya's durability and volume will be key, and that Mullarkey will eventually get hurt. He notes Bedoya is 0-3 in the UFC but tough.

third round knockout
"I'm going to say Bedoya does knock him out. I'm going to say Bedoya knocks out Malarkey."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody picks Mullarkey, believing his striking and wrestling will be enough to outwork Bedoya. He notes Bedoya lacks power and has poor takedown defense, while Mullarkey has fought better strikers and mixed in takedowns. He acknowledges Mullarkey's chin is a concern but thinks Bedoya doesn't have the power to exploit it.

"I end up taking Jamie Malarkey. No doubt about it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Connor agrees, emphasizing that Bedoya is a slow, unpowerful kickboxer with no footwork or speed, while Mullarkey is a tough wrestle-boxer who will make him fight tooth and nail. He notes that Mullarkey's losses are to athletic monsters, and Bedoya is not that. He expects Mullarkey to win a solid all-round MMA fight.

"Yeah, I mean... Mullarkey's got more breadth, more options, and I don't think Bedoya is nearly dangerous enough to put him away."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

James picks Jamie Mullarkey with his logical head, citing Mullarkey's better boxing fundamentals and takedown threat. However, he is very hesitant because Mullarkey's chin has degraded from wars and Bedoya throws high volume. He admits he might bet a Bedoya KO prop if the odds are right, showing low conviction.

Bedoya by KO (potential bet)
"I'm going to pick Jamie Malaki. I'm going to go with my logical head, but honestly, if they give me a prop on Bedoya, I'll probably KO prop on Bedoya, I might take the shot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

The host thinks Mullarkey is the better overall fighter. He expects Mullarkey's durability to hold up and for him to mix in takedowns and volume to stifle Bedoya and win on the scorecards.

"I think Malarkey is the better overall fighter. If his durability can hold up, look for him to put together a better body of work, mixing in takedowns and volume to really stifle Bedoya and win this fight on the …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rolando Bedoya

The Guru picks Rolando Bedoya over Jamie Mullarkey, citing Mullarkey's tendency to get wobbled and cut open. He believes Bedoya can handle Mullarkey's physicality, as seen in his fight against Chaos Williams. He expects a scrap where Mullarkey is more prone to damage.

"I'm going against Jamie Malarkey here. I'm gonna go over Orlando Badoya."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Zane sees Mullarkey as having more breadth and options than Bedoya, who is a slow, unpowerful pocket kickboxer. He notes that Mullarkey's wrestle-boxing approach and durability should be enough to outwork Bedoya, who has lost all three UFC fights and looked bad. He points out that Mullarkey has beaten athletic fighters and lost only to elite power punchers.

Odds comment: glad the gambler has realized Bedoya shouldn't be a favorite; Mullarkey opened +140 now -120, Bedoya opened -160 now +100
"I'll take Jamie Mullarkey. He's got more breadth, more options, and I don't think Bedoya is nearly dangerous enough to put him away."
LOSS vs Maurício Ruffy
TKO (punches) R1 4:42 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Ruffy 1 25 of 40 62% 25 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Jamie Mullarkey 0 14 of 38 36% 14 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Ruffy 1 25 of 40 62% 25 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Jamie Mullarkey 0 14 of 38 36% 14 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Ruffy 25 of 40 62% 21 of 35 0 of 1 4 of 4 22 of 37 1 of 1 2 of 2
Jamie Mullarkey 14 of 38 36% 7 of 28 4 of 6 3 of 4 14 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Ruffy 25 of 40 62% 21 of 35 0 of 1 4 of 4 22 of 37 1 of 1 2 of 2
Jamie Mullarkey 14 of 38 36% 7 of 28 4 of 6 3 of 4 14 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jamie Mullarkey vs. Mauricio Ruffy
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-175), Mullarkey (+145)

Round 1
A striker’s delight at 155 pounds will treat fans to conclude the early preliminary portion of the fight card. With all of his wins and losses coming via knockout, Ruffy (9-1, 0-0 UFC) makes no bones about what he wants to do to willing brawler Mullarkey (17-7, 5-5 UFC). Fists are sure to fly in high quantity and intensity, but before they do, referee Mike Beltran checks them in. Before fists meet faces, they come together sportingly. Ruffy drops down to the floor to drill Mullarkey’s low calf with a Mortal Kombat-esque sweeping kick, and Mullarkey just looks at him. Mullarkey looks for a head kick that misses the mark, and Ruffy hammers his lead leg with a more traditional kick. Ruffy pokes out a jab that reddens the nose of his opponent, and he lands another that gets Mullarkey’s attention. Ruffy puts power behind his strikes, and multiple parts of Mullarkey are red in a hurry. Mullarkey slaps a body kick home, and it is one-and-done as he slips away. Ruffy turns to roll with a heavy right hand just in the nick of time, and he powers out a jab and a winging right hand. Ruffy hammers the lead wheel, and another jab of his opens a cut on the bridge of the nose. Ruffy slips a punch and nails Mullarkey with a right hand, and Mullarkey is tough as a two-dollar steak after eating that without flinching. Mullarkey pursues his own jabs, and Ruffy spins with a wheel kick that gets around the guard. Mullarkey crowds him with a punch salvo, and Ruffy shifts and moves and throws back with a few. Mullarkey keeps powering forward, and Ruffy’s defense is able to keep him safe from most of the harm. Mullarkey fakes a takedown, but Ruffy ignores it and smashes Mullarkey in the face with a ruthless right hand. Ruffy has a right hand skim the top of the head, and he ignores a left hand coming back at him. Ruffy dodges a wide right hand, and he leaps forward to trip Mullarkey up with a flying scissor sweep. Both men hit the ground, but they stand back up and trade. Ruffy beans Mullarkey with two stern right hands, and he times a perfect jump knee that smashes open Mullarkey’s nose. Beltran thinks about stopping the fight but lets it play out a bit longer, and Ruffy does not miss a beat as Mullarkey falls to the ground and climbs back up.
The Brazilian fearlessly marches forward, and he unloads with a long string of punches until Mullarkey collapses in a heap. With Mullarkey on his hands and knees about to take some unnecessary damage, Beltran calls a stop to the fight to save the tough Aussie from himself and the onslaught of the UFC newcomer.
This is a statement introduction for Ruffy, who dons the thick-rimmed glasses of his camp, The Fighting Nerds. Ruffy leaps on top of the cage to celebrate his handiwork, and the crowd goes wild in support of their fighter.

The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. Jamie Mullarkey R1 4:42 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Angelo picks Ruffy based on skill sets alone, citing his power and takedown defense. He expresses concern about the huge step up in competition and stage for Ruffy, and notes Mullarkey has been knocked out multiple times. He only considers a bet on Ruffy by knockout if the odds are good.

Angelo says 'the only bet I would even consider is potentially ruffy by knockout' but only if odds are favorable
"I'm going to have to go with the powerful Striker that can defend takedowns I don't love it I don't love it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Big Brady emphasizes Mullarkey's poor chin and Ruffy's power, predicting a first-round knockout. He notes Ruffy's low volume but believes he will land a fight-ending shot. He also mentions a prize pick play on Ruffy under 46.5 significant strikes.

under 46.5 significant strikes (PrizePicks)
"I'm taking him to win by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Cody picks Ruffy, citing his knockout power and Mullarkey's questionable chin. He notes Ruffy is coming down from 170 and has finishing ability. Cody expects Ruffy to knock out Mullarkey early.

Ruffy by KO
"Ruffy by knockout for me..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Daniel Vreeland picks Ruffy by KO, citing his 100% finish rate and sniper-like counter right hand. He notes Ruffy's excellent takedown defense and calf kicks that slow opponents. He believes Mullarkey's chin is vulnerable and that Ruffy will find the big shot in the second or third round after frustrating Mullarkey on the feet.

Ruffy by KO/TKO
"I think huy is going to stop the takedowns and I think maybe in the scrambles... we're going to see huy land something big"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Ruffy is on a four-fight winning streak and utilizes a Conor McGregor-like striking style with a straight punch down the pipe. Mullarkey has been knocked out three times in the last two years, so his chin won't hold up against Ruffy's precision striking. Ruffy wins by knockout.

knockout
"give me huffy and Huffy by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Paul picks Ruffy, highlighting Mullarkey's history of getting knocked out and Ruffy's power. He notes Mullarkey's takedown threat is minimal and Ruffy's striking will be too much. Paul expects a knockout.

"I got to go with Mauricio Ruffy... it's just a matter of time before he gets something blown up on his chin."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

The MMA Guru picks Maurício Ruffy, believing Jamie Mullarkey is on borrowed time in the UFC. He criticizes Mullarkey's recent performances and close decisions, while praising Ruffy's power, finishing ability, and toughness shown on the Contender Series. He expects Ruffy to win, possibly by knockout, and notes Ruffy's size and dangerous striking.

"I'm going to go with him to win this fight he's big he's dangerous he's got knockout ability"
TKO (punches) R1 1:44 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nasrat Haqparast 2 16 of 29 55% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Jamie Mullarkey 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nasrat Haqparast 2 16 of 29 55% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Jamie Mullarkey 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nasrat Haqparast 16 of 29 55% 14 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 13 6 of 8 6 of 8
Jamie Mullarkey 8 of 23 34% 3 of 16 2 of 4 3 of 3 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nasrat Haqparast 16 of 29 55% 14 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 13 6 of 8 6 of 8
Jamie Mullarkey 8 of 23 34% 3 of 16 2 of 4 3 of 3 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Nasrat Haqparast

Cody picks Nasrat Haqparast but is not confident. He notes that both fighters are similar blue-collar types, but Mullarkey's durability is a major concern. Cody points out that Mullarkey has been knocked out by lesser power punchers and Haqparast, while not a huge power puncher, can land enough. He also criticizes Haqparast for being an overpriced favorite who often underperforms. Cody says he doesn't like the fight and is not rushing to bet it.

"I will take hack PR but I don't like it I really don't like it but I really don't like Malarkey"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean pick date unknown
Nasrat Haqparast

Lucrative James thinks Nasrat's boxing will be too sharp for Mullarkey, especially given Mullarkey's recent KO loss and apparent chin deterioration. However, he questions his own objectivity, wondering if recency bias is skewing his view. He notes that Nasrat can be taken down and doesn't rate either fighter highly, so he is passing on betting. He picks Nasrat to win by KO but with low confidence.

KO
"I think his boxing is going to be too sharp for Jamie Malak"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Nasrat Haqparast

Paul also picks Haqparast but is hesitant. He mentions Mullarkey's questionable durability and Haqparast's volume advantage. Paul notes that Haqparast is a career underachiever and often wins close decisions. He doesn't trust Mullarkey with his money but isn't excited about Haqparast either.

"I don't know if I can trust Jamie Malarkey with my own money um I'm gonna pick nazra but it's not a fight I'm rushing to bet"
WIN vs John Makdessi
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Mullarkey 0 88 of 179 49% 88 of 179 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
John Makdessi 0 83 of 188 44% 85 of 190 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Mullarkey 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
John Makdessi 0 24 of 51 47% 24 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamie Mullarkey 0 37 of 62 59% 37 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
John Makdessi 0 21 of 61 34% 21 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jamie Mullarkey 0 29 of 72 40% 29 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
John Makdessi 0 38 of 76 50% 40 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Mullarkey 88 of 179 49% 38 of 120 13 of 20 37 of 39 88 of 179 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Makdessi 83 of 188 44% 37 of 119 22 of 45 24 of 24 83 of 188 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Mullarkey 22 of 45 48% 5 of 24 4 of 8 13 of 13 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Makdessi 24 of 51 47% 6 of 27 10 of 16 8 of 8 24 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jamie Mullarkey 37 of 62 59% 17 of 40 8 of 10 12 of 12 37 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Makdessi 21 of 61 34% 11 of 40 5 of 16 5 of 5 21 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jamie Mullarkey 29 of 72 40% 16 of 56 1 of 2 12 of 14 29 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
John Makdessi 38 of 76 50% 20 of 52 7 of 13 11 of 11 38 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey but hates the -180 price. He notes that Jamie's relentless pressure and takedown attempts should get him a close decision, but he is not dangerous and has poor chin. John Makdessi has good takedown defense and if he keeps it standing, he wins. Angelo avoids betting on Jamie despite picking him.

Avoid betting at -180
"I'm gonna pick him but minus 180. that I mean that's that's on a fully eyebrow guy that's good at multiple things in fighting that's not on"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
John Makdessi

Big Brady picks the underdog John Makdessi, citing his durability, high volume, and ability to get back up from takedowns. He notes Mullarkey is hittable and has a questionable chin. He thinks Makdessi can outwork Mullarkey over three rounds and predicts a decision win.

"I'm actually going to take the dog and mcessee to get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody picks Mullarkey but is hesitant, noting that Mullarkey has a suspect chin and has been knocked out recently. However, he believes Mullarkey's wrestling and size advantage will be too much for Makdessi, who is a natural featherweight with no knockout power. Cody likes the Mullarkey by decision prop and the over on takedowns.

Mullarkey by decision (+115); Mullarkey over 1.5 takedowns on Prize Picks
"I don't want to bet Malarkey at this price I don't I'm not I just don't see any world yeah I just don't see any world where I'm getting in on John mcdessie"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Daniel Levi picks Jamie Mullarkey but is not crazy about the price. He notes that Makdessi is 38 and has been in many wars, while Mullarkey is younger and has a reach advantage. However, Mullarkey has been knocked out four times, which is a concern. Levi expects Mullarkey to outwork Makdessi down the stretch if he fights with aggression.

Odds mentioned: Mullarkey minus 260, Makdessi plus 220.
"I see a situation where Jamie is just a little bit grittier kind of outworks him a bit and just puts it on him down the stretch."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Lucrative James leans toward Jamie Mullarkey, citing his youth, tenacity, and a decent win over Prado. He acknowledges Makdessi could win a split decision but notes Makdessi is old and doesn't have knockout power. James expresses slight concern about Mullarkey's chin after a knockout loss, but believes Makdessi is unlikely to finish him. He thinks Mullarkey will dominate.

"Malarkey should win he's a lot younger he's a lot more he's a lot more tenacious"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Mullarkey has improved significantly, blending takedowns behind his striking and managing distance well. He works with the City Kickboxing camp. Makdessi is a veteran who makes fights close but is 38 and may be slowing down. Mullarkey's output and wrestling should earn him a decision win. The over 2.5 rounds is preferred over the moneyline.

over 2.5 rounds
"I'm looking for a output and wrestling approach from Malarkey to get his hand raised I would much rather the over two and a half than the Malarkey money line here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Paul picks Mullarkey but is hesitant, citing Mullarkey's durability issues and the -280 price. He notes that Makdessi is a small lightweight with no recent finishes and that Mullarkey should use his wrestling to secure a decision. Paul likes the Mullarkey by decision prop and the over on takedowns.

Mullarkey by decision (+115); Mullarkey over 1.5 takedowns on Prize Picks
"I think Malarkey's job here is uses bigger frame forces Up Against the Cage don't just kind of have a tick for tack kickboxing match with mcdess because you can lose that fight but uh secure some takedowns"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

The MMA Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey over John Makdessi, citing Mullarkey's size advantage (6'0", 74" reach) and physicality. He notes that Mullarkey bullies smaller opponents, as seen in his win over Devonte Smith with body shots and knees. Makdessi is 38 and coming off a loss to Nasrat Haqparast. He believes Mullarkey will bully Makdessi and get a TKO in the first or second round, as Makdessi cannot grapple with him or knock him out.

TKO in round 1 or 2
"I got Jamie Malarkey over John mcdess"
LOSS vs Muhammad Naimov
TKO (punches) R2 2:59 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 39 of 71 54% 40 of 73 3 of 8 37% 0 0 2:28
Jamie Mullarkey 1 28 of 70 40% 30 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 23 of 45 51% 24 of 46 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:41
Jamie Mullarkey 0 16 of 35 45% 18 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 16 of 26 61% 16 of 27 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Jamie Mullarkey 1 12 of 35 34% 12 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 39 of 71 54% 15 of 43 14 of 18 10 of 10 27 of 56 12 of 14 0 of 1
Jamie Mullarkey 28 of 70 40% 17 of 56 5 of 8 6 of 6 20 of 60 3 of 5 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 23 of 45 51% 5 of 24 11 of 14 7 of 7 15 of 34 8 of 10 0 of 1
Jamie Mullarkey 16 of 35 45% 7 of 24 4 of 6 5 of 5 13 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Muhammad Naimov 16 of 26 61% 10 of 19 3 of 4 3 of 3 12 of 22 4 of 4 0 of 0
Jamie Mullarkey 12 of 35 34% 10 of 32 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 29 0 of 1 5 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Angelo picks Mullarkey due to short notice for Naimov, but is not touching the odds (-590). He thinks Mullarkey is a jack of all trades and should win, but Naimov is decent and could cause trouble. He notes Mullarkey was preparing for a good striker, so his grappling should be on point. He is not confident enough to bet.

"I do think Jamie Mark is going to win it is short notice but I'm not touching these odds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody picks Mullarkey, noting his favorable matchup after originally facing a tough wrestler. He highlights Mullarkey's solid cardio, ground game, and power. Cody recalls Naimov's poor Contender Series performance where he was outwrestled and out struck. He thinks Mullarkey's wrestling and durability will be too much for Naimov, even if Naimov has a puncher's chance.

"the pick the 100 Jamie Malarkey minus 400 it's kind of steamed"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Connor picks Mullarkey, agreeing with the size and short-notice factors. He notes that Naimov's game is based on pocket exchanges and clinch knees, but Mullarkey's toughness and ability to survive should allow him to take over. Connor also points out that Naimov struggles when pressured, and Mullarkey can put his foot on the gas.

Mentions Naimov is on short notice and a natural featherweight.
"I'll take malarkey. I mean, I think there's also the possibility that he does surprise him with a takedown."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Daniel picks Mullarkey, noting that Naimov is a step up in competition and Mullarkey's experience should carry him. He acknowledges the line is high but thinks Mullarkey can use wrestling to control the fight. He mentions that Naimov showed cardio issues in his Contender Series fight, gassing in the third round.

"I think his experience should probably carry him through this one"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Jacob picks Mullarkey, believing the path to victory via wrestling is obvious. He thinks Naimov is dangerous with unorthodox striking, but Mullarkey should grapple early and win easily. Jacob notes Mullarkey has more power than people think and is a tough matchup. He is confident Mullarkey wins but acknowledges the odds are too high.

"the path for victory for Jamie Malarkey is just too obvious in my mind"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Mullarkey is the better overall fighter with a well-rounded game. Naimov is a short-notice debutant with questionable cardio and level of competition. Mullarkey will mix striking and grappling, pull ahead later, and win by decision. The odds are too high (-350), but Mullarkey should win.

over 2.5 rounds
"I think that Malarkey in terms of a prediction is going to be the side I end up going with also the over two and a half I can see a lot of grappling situations"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Paul picks Mullarkey confidently despite the high price. He notes Mullarkey's toughness, having been dropped by Michael Johnson and recovered. Paul thinks Mullarkey's wrestling and cardio are superior, and that Naimov's Contender Series performance was unimpressive. He expects Mullarkey to take Naimov down, grind him out, and get a TKO in the second or third round. Paul acknowledges the price is steep but sees Mullarkey as safe.

"Malarkey minus 400 I guess is the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Muhammad Naimov

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov, calling this the main event for him. He notes that Jamie Mullarkey looked good in his last win but that Michael Johnson arguably beat him. He believes Naimov is a different level, with a split decision win over Damir Ismagulov and a win over Matteus Gamrot. He thinks Naimov's body kicks will be key, as Mullarkey keeps his guard high, leaving the body open. He predicts Naimov will open up shots to the head after body work.

"I think he does beat Jamie Malarkey because if there's one thing I've noticed about Jamie Malarkey's game..."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Zane picks Mullarkey, citing his size advantage and toughness. He notes that Naimov is a natural featherweight taking the fight on short notice, and his blitzing style may not work against Mullarkey's durability. Zane expects Mullarkey to weather any early storm and take over with his range-based game.

Mentions Naimov is on short notice and a natural featherweight.
"I'm just going to pick Malarkey to be... he's incredibly tough."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Mullarkey 0 59 of 104 56% 78 of 126 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:47
Francisco Prado 0 28 of 75 37% 31 of 78 0 of 2 0% 1 1 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Mullarkey 0 15 of 20 75% 32 of 39 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:39
Francisco Prado 0 7 of 12 58% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jamie Mullarkey 0 25 of 49 51% 25 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francisco Prado 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Jamie Mullarkey 0 19 of 35 54% 21 of 38 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:08
Francisco Prado 0 8 of 25 32% 9 of 26 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Mullarkey 59 of 104 56% 28 of 70 13 of 14 18 of 20 49 of 92 0 of 0 10 of 12
Francisco Prado 28 of 75 37% 18 of 58 4 of 10 6 of 7 28 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Mullarkey 15 of 20 75% 10 of 15 2 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 11 0 of 0 8 of 9
Francisco Prado 7 of 12 58% 5 of 9 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jamie Mullarkey 25 of 49 51% 11 of 33 7 of 7 7 of 9 25 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Francisco Prado 13 of 38 34% 7 of 28 1 of 4 5 of 6 13 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jamie Mullarkey 19 of 35 54% 7 of 22 4 of 5 8 of 8 17 of 32 0 of 0 2 of 3
Francisco Prado 8 of 25 32% 6 of 21 2 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey but is not confident, as he worries about Mullarkey's willingness to engage in a striking battle with the explosive Francisco Prado. He notes that Mullarkey should stick to grappling to avoid Prado's power, but the hometown crowd might encourage him to strike. He is not betting on Mullarkey at the current odds.

"the pick's gonna be Jamie malarkey I am not betting on Jamie Malarkey especially not at these odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Big Brady acknowledges Prado's danger early but thinks Mullarkey can weather the storm and break Prado in the second round. He compares it to Mullarkey's fight with Devonte Smith, where Mullarkey pressured and went to the body. He notes both are hittable but expects a finish, leaning Mullarkey by knockout in round 2.

second round knockout
"I'm leaning Malarkey in that second round to get that knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody is confident Mullarkey wins, citing Prado's low level of competition and questionable cardio. He notes Mullarkey is a proven UFC veteran who can grind out wins with takedowns and pressure. He thinks Prado's undefeated record is built on cans and he will be overwhelmed by the step up in competition.

"gotta go with Jamie cut the Malarkey but again it's just like the kind of price tag you don't overly want to pay"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Connor agrees with Zane, calling Prado a certified can crusher with potential but lacking training. He notes that Mullarkey is a naturally aggressive fighter who doesn't know he's not good enough, which allows him to compete at a high level. Connor expects Mullarkey to dominate Prado everywhere.

"I don't have a lot to add to that breakdown. I think we tend we have a way we tend to go with certified can crushers."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Mullarkey's experience and cardio will be too much for the short-notice debutant Prado. Prado is athletic but green, and his success has come against lower competition. Mullarkey can weather the early storm, then take over with grappling and pressure. Prado will likely gas by the second round. Mullarkey's durability and length allow him to evade Prado's power shots. Expect a finish in the third round via TKO or submission.

"I think we'll see Malarkey evade those big shots I think we'll see Malarkey look to get his grappling going to try to keep protostatic try to stay away and nullify that big knockout power of Prado"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Paul agrees Mullarkey is the pick, noting Prado is young (20) and making a huge jump from regional scene to UFC pay-per-view. He thinks Mullarkey's experience and pressure will be too much. He is not excited about the -270 price but sees Mullarkey as a safe parlay piece.

"I'm with you malarkey"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

The MMA Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey over Francisco Prado, noting Mullarkey's toughness and improvement. He expects Prado to come out strong but fade, and Mullarkey to finish with knees to the body in the clinch in the second round, similar to his win over Devonte Smith.

second round KO via knees to the body
"I'm gonna go Jamie Malarkey TKO in the second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Zane picks Mullarkey confidently, stating that Prado is a manufactured prospect with padded record and cannot wrestle. He notes that Mullarkey is hyper-aggressive and will take Prado down and out-wrestle him. Zane also thinks Mullarkey's attitude will be a rude awakening for Prado, and that even on the feet, Mullarkey will shock Prado with his aggression.

"Francisco Prado says me talking about it. He's just gonna get mopped."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Mullarkey 1 66 of 190 34% 68 of 194 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:37
Michael Johnson 0 96 of 217 44% 96 of 218 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Mullarkey 1 18 of 42 42% 20 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
Michael Johnson 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Jamie Mullarkey 0 18 of 57 31% 18 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Michael Johnson 0 45 of 95 47% 45 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Jamie Mullarkey 0 30 of 91 32% 30 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Michael Johnson 0 31 of 69 44% 31 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Mullarkey 66 of 190 34% 42 of 147 22 of 41 2 of 2 58 of 179 4 of 5 4 of 6
Michael Johnson 96 of 217 44% 54 of 160 21 of 34 21 of 23 83 of 195 11 of 18 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Mullarkey 18 of 42 42% 12 of 33 5 of 8 1 of 1 11 of 32 3 of 4 4 of 6
Michael Johnson 20 of 53 37% 10 of 37 3 of 9 7 of 7 18 of 47 0 of 2 2 of 4
2 Jamie Mullarkey 18 of 57 31% 11 of 44 6 of 12 1 of 1 17 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 45 of 95 47% 24 of 69 11 of 15 10 of 11 34 of 79 11 of 16 0 of 0
3 Jamie Mullarkey 30 of 91 32% 19 of 70 11 of 21 0 of 0 30 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 31 of 69 44% 20 of 54 7 of 10 4 of 5 31 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Johnson

Angelo picks Michael Johnson as a +200 underdog, questioning why Mullarkey is a 2-1 favorite. He highlights Johnson's 78% takedown defense over 25 UFC fights, noting only Khabib and Clay Guida have taken him down multiple times. He believes Johnson's striking is underrated and he is not chinny, having been knocked out only once. He sees Mullarkey as a grappler who has been striking lately, and Johnson's experience gives him the edge.

Moneyline bet on Michael Johnson as underdog.
"I think he wins this fight... I think I'm going money line bet on michael johnson as well two to one underdog."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Big Brady picks Jamie Mullarkey, citing his youth and multiple paths to victory. He notes that Mullarkey can mix in takedowns and make it a dirty fight, which could expose Michael Johnson's questionable ground game and tendency to make mistakes. He acknowledges Johnson is the better striker and could knock Mullarkey out, but believes Mullarkey's durability and pressure will earn him a decision win. He expresses surprise at Mullarkey being a -240 favorite.

"i'm going to take jamie malarkey to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody thinks Mullarkey's pressure and wrestling will be key against Johnson, who fades in later rounds. He notes Johnson's best round is the first, and if Mullarkey can survive that, he can take over. He believes Mullarkey's durability is still there despite the recent KO loss.

"sign me up for jamie malarkey but again the price tag is not great and i wouldn't fault anybody for for banking on michael johnson's uh great footwork and huge power"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Johnson

The host bets 1 unit on Michael Johnson at +225 as a value play. He thinks Johnson is the better striker, faster, and could knock out Mullarkey quickly. However, he also acknowledges that Mullarkey could have success and possibly finish Johnson later, so he also bets on the under 2.5 rounds to cover both sides. He sees the optimal outcome as Johnson by KO under 2.5 rounds.

1 unit on Johnson moneyline +225. Also 2 units on under 2.5 rounds at -174. Parlay includes under 2.5 for this fight.
"I'm also going to go one unit on Michael Johnson plus 225. again a value play here in a sense I think he's the better Striker than malarkey I think he's faster than malarkey I think he can knock him …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert pick date unknown

Paul calls this a dogger pass situation. He's tempted by Johnson at plus money but notes Johnson's inconsistency. He thinks the price on Mullarkey is steep and isn't confident either way.

"i'm kind of i kind of want to bet the underdog here but i don't want to pull the trigger on michael johnson because the guy's an absolute flake"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jamie Mullarkey

The Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey, praising his technical striking, solid chin, and grappling ability. He believes Mullarkey will wear Johnson down with body work and cage pressure, finishing him in the third round via cumulative damage. He notes Johnson's tendency to gas.

finish in round three
"I got to go with Jamie Mullarkey here."
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Angelo picks Ruffy based on skill sets alone, citing his power and takedown defense. He expresses concern about the huge step up in competition and stage for Ruffy, and notes Mullarkey has been knocked out multiple times. He only considers a bet on Ruffy by knockout if the odds are good.

Angelo says 'the only bet I would even consider is potentially ruffy by knockout' but only if odds are favorable
"I'm going to have to go with the powerful Striker that can defend takedowns I don't love it I don't love it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Big Brady emphasizes Mullarkey's poor chin and Ruffy's power, predicting a first-round knockout. He notes Ruffy's low volume but believes he will land a fight-ending shot. He also mentions a prize pick play on Ruffy under 46.5 significant strikes.

under 46.5 significant strikes (PrizePicks)
"I'm taking him to win by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Cody picks Ruffy, citing his knockout power and Mullarkey's questionable chin. He notes Ruffy is coming down from 170 and has finishing ability. Cody expects Ruffy to knock out Mullarkey early.

Ruffy by KO
"Ruffy by knockout for me..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Daniel Vreeland picks Ruffy by KO, citing his 100% finish rate and sniper-like counter right hand. He notes Ruffy's excellent takedown defense and calf kicks that slow opponents. He believes Mullarkey's chin is vulnerable and that Ruffy will find the big shot in the second or third round after frustrating Mullarkey on the feet.

Ruffy by KO/TKO
"I think huy is going to stop the takedowns and I think maybe in the scrambles... we're going to see huy land something big"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Ruffy is on a four-fight winning streak and utilizes a Conor McGregor-like striking style with a straight punch down the pipe. Mullarkey has been knocked out three times in the last two years, so his chin won't hold up against Ruffy's precision striking. Ruffy wins by knockout.

knockout
"give me huffy and Huffy by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

Paul picks Ruffy, highlighting Mullarkey's history of getting knocked out and Ruffy's power. He notes Mullarkey's takedown threat is minimal and Ruffy's striking will be too much. Paul expects a knockout.

"I got to go with Mauricio Ruffy... it's just a matter of time before he gets something blown up on his chin."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maurício Ruffy

The MMA Guru picks Maurício Ruffy, believing Jamie Mullarkey is on borrowed time in the UFC. He criticizes Mullarkey's recent performances and close decisions, while praising Ruffy's power, finishing ability, and toughness shown on the Contender Series. He expects Ruffy to win, possibly by knockout, and notes Ruffy's size and dangerous striking.

"I'm going to go with him to win this fight he's big he's dangerous he's got knockout ability"