UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 5' 11"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Alex Morono
4.9 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
4.88 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.32 TD Avg
24.0% TD Acc.
47.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Carlos Leal
8.75 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
7.78 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
0.43 TD Avg
11.0% TD Acc.
90.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Alex Morono - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 40 of 146 27% 48 of 154 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniil Donchenko 1 100 of 162 61% 134 of 214 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 16 of 38 42% 22 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniil Donchenko 1 39 of 59 66% 70 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:44
2 Alex Morono 0 6 of 43 13% 7 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniil Donchenko 0 27 of 40 67% 30 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
3 Alex Morono 0 18 of 65 27% 19 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniil Donchenko 0 34 of 63 53% 34 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 40 of 146 27% 37 of 138 2 of 7 1 of 1 36 of 137 4 of 9 0 of 0
Daniil Donchenko 100 of 162 61% 45 of 99 21 of 28 34 of 35 82 of 134 7 of 11 11 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 16 of 38 42% 13 of 33 2 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
Daniil Donchenko 39 of 59 66% 23 of 42 8 of 9 8 of 8 25 of 37 3 of 5 11 of 17
2 Alex Morono 6 of 43 13% 6 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 39 1 of 4 0 of 0
Daniil Donchenko 27 of 40 67% 9 of 18 7 of 10 11 of 12 24 of 37 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Alex Morono 18 of 65 27% 18 of 63 0 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 63 1 of 2 0 of 0
Daniil Donchenko 34 of 63 53% 13 of 39 6 of 9 15 of 15 33 of 60 1 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Angelo picks Daniil Donchenko despite believing Alex Morono is the better fighter skill-for-skill. He explains that Morono is a 'moron' who will stand and trade instead of using his high-level jiu-jitsu. Donchenko hits hard and Morono is on a three-fight skid. He thinks Morono has the easiest path to victory by grappling but won't do it, so he picks Donchenko.

"Denil Donenko is the pick. I I I He just hits too hard and Alex is going to stand there and try to go slike with him. It's just dumb."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Big Brady picks Daniil Donchenko, praising his aggressive style and dangerous striking. He questions Alex Morono's commitment to fighting, noting he has other pursuits and has looked poor in recent fights. He expects Donchenko to pressure and finish Morono early, similar to Carlos Liao's win over Morono.

by first round knockout
"I like Donchenko. I like Donchenko by first round knockout. I think he runs through Alex Morono."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Cody agrees, highlighting Donchenko's power and Morono's chin issues. He notes Donchenko's tendency to gas but expects an early finish. Cody suggests betting Donchenko live after the first round if he doesn't finish, but overall picks Donchenko.

"Donchenko is just highly aggressive and sits down on his punches and you know, maybe he can topple him over."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Morono is a subpar athlete who has lost his speed and durability. He notes that Donchenko is young and technical, and that Morono's wins were over past-prime fighters. Connor concludes that Donchenko will win purely based on age and physical decline.

Morono opened at +385, currently +525; Donchenko opened at -500, currently -725
"So it makes perfect sense to then match him up with Daniil Donchenko right now. And that's definitely a fight I have to think about hard to figure out how it's going to go."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Lucrative James picks Daniil Donchenko to win by TKO in round two or three. He trusts Donchenko's youth, physicality, and improvement, while noting that Morono is aging and has a questionable chin. James expects Morono to start well but fade as the fight progresses.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm trusting Donenko. I'm trusting in his youth, physicality, power, durability, upside. and I'm trusting in his improvement upside to get the job done. I think be a TKO in round two or round three."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

The host picks Donchenko by first-round knockout, calling it a horrible stylistic matchup for Morono. He highlights Donchenko's Muay Thai, especially his elbows and knees, and his aggressive pressure. He notes Morono's chin is fading and he struggles with cardio, making him vulnerable to an early finish.

round 1 knockout
"So once again, give me Denil Donenko round one knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Paul picks Daniil Donchenko, citing his power and aggression. He notes Morono's recent losses and declining durability. Paul expects Donchenko to finish early but warns about his cardio if it goes past the first round. He suggests betting Donchenko but not at heavy favorite odds.

"It's got to be Don Shenko favorite status on this side."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Daniil Donchenko

The host picks Daniil Donchenko over Alex Morono. He is very confident, predicting a first-round TKO. He notes Donchenko's aggressive style, elbows, body work, and low kicks. He thinks Morono can take a beating but Donchenko's cutting shots and pressure will overwhelm him early.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Danil Donchenko getting a first round TKO over Alex Morono all day long."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Zane picks Donchenko based on age and decline of Morono. He notes that Morono is slower and more fragile, and that Donchenko is a young, technical, and violent fighter who can execute at multiple levels. Zane believes Donchenko will simply wreck Morono, as Morono has lost to late-career Niko Price and is past his prime.

Morono opened at +385, currently +525; Donchenko opened at -500, currently -725
"So Donchenko is just going to wreck him. Yeah. That's it. It's just going to go out there and wreck him."
LOSS vs Carlos Leal
KO R1 4:16 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 40 of 95 42% 41 of 96 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Carlos Leal 0 79 of 120 65% 81 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 40 of 95 42% 41 of 96 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Carlos Leal 0 79 of 120 65% 81 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 40 of 95 42% 32 of 82 4 of 9 4 of 4 35 of 87 5 of 8 0 of 0
Carlos Leal 79 of 120 65% 49 of 89 28 of 29 2 of 2 54 of 91 25 of 29 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 40 of 95 42% 32 of 82 4 of 9 4 of 4 35 of 87 5 of 8 0 of 0
Carlos Leal 79 of 120 65% 49 of 89 28 of 29 2 of 2 54 of 91 25 of 29 0 of 0
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Rodriguez 0 123 of 257 47% 126 of 260 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Alex Morono 0 74 of 257 28% 91 of 276 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Rodriguez 0 25 of 56 44% 25 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 31 of 81 38% 31 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daniel Rodriguez 0 44 of 99 44% 44 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 23 of 91 25% 23 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Daniel Rodriguez 0 54 of 102 52% 57 of 105 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Alex Morono 0 20 of 85 23% 37 of 104 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Rodriguez 123 of 257 47% 44 of 153 56 of 80 23 of 24 117 of 251 6 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Morono 74 of 257 28% 58 of 228 9 of 21 7 of 8 74 of 256 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Rodriguez 25 of 56 44% 7 of 32 11 of 17 7 of 7 25 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Morono 31 of 81 38% 20 of 67 5 of 8 6 of 6 31 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Daniel Rodriguez 44 of 99 44% 19 of 65 18 of 27 7 of 7 44 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Morono 23 of 91 25% 20 of 83 2 of 7 1 of 1 23 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Daniel Rodriguez 54 of 102 52% 18 of 56 27 of 36 9 of 10 48 of 96 6 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Morono 20 of 85 23% 18 of 78 2 of 6 0 of 1 20 of 84 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Angelo makes a low-confidence pick for Daniel Rodriguez, citing Alex Morono's unreliability. He notes that Morono is the overall better fighter but can never be trusted. Angelo suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Morono instead, as he believes Morono can win at least one round. He does not bet the moneyline on either fighter.

Considering plus 3.5 bet on Alex Morono if plus money
"The wildly low confidence pick will be Daniel because you just cannot trust Alex morono."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Daniel Rodriguez to win by decision, but notes he needs to see the weigh-ins to confirm. He criticizes Morono's awful performance against Niko Price, where he was gassed after one minute, and notes Morono is on short notice again. He thinks Rodriguez is the better striker and less washed, though both are declining. If Morono looks bad on the scale, Brady would change his pick to a knockout. He expects a decision but is open to a finish if Morono looks terrible.

Rodriguez by decision; if Morono looks awful, change to knockout
"I'm picking D Rod regardless I think he's the better Striker quicker harder hitter and looks less less washed"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Rodriguez is a technical brawler who throws combinations and sets up shots, while Morono is a bad athlete who relies on game planning. He points out that Morono's jab is his best weapon but Rodriguez hits harder and is more durable. Connor expects Rodriguez to win a competitive fight.

Same odds commentary.
"Got to go with d rod agreed. But I like the fight a lot because oh, yeah the fight that morono will hang in he will keep it competitive."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Daniel notes that Rodriguez has declined significantly in speed and reflexes, as seen in the Kelvin Gastelum fight, but he still has a speed advantage over Morono, who has never been fast. He thinks Rodriguez's jab and straight punches will get there first against Morono's wild overhands. However, he is not confident and expects the fight to be closer than the odds suggest.

"Sure, pure pick I'll go with D Rod because historically he does have a big speed advantage... but there's a potential this fight plays out closer than the line indicates."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Rodriguez is more well-rounded and technical than Morono. Morono uses footwork but will struggle with Rodriguez's counters and straight shots down the pipe. Rodriguez will walk Morono down, land big strikes, and win on the scorecards.

"I think Rodriguez will do a good job in terms of walking Morono down landing his big strikes and winning this fight on the scorecards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Rodriguez, criticizing Alex Morono for lacking talent, athleticism, and fast-twitch fibers. He praises Rodriguez's crisp, technical boxing and power, and expects a TKO in the second round. He dismisses Morono's grappling and overall game, calling him a 'flabby soft no Talent having hard worker'.

TKO second round
"I'm going to go with D Rod getting this one done way crisper boxing way more technical boxing way Slicker boxing way more power I'm going to say D Rod gets this one done by TKO second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez because he believes Rodriguez's power and durability will be too much for Morono. He notes that Morono often struggles against athletic fighters with power, and Rodriguez, despite being messy, has the tools to outwork and hurt Morono. Zane thinks Morono may have moments but will eventually get cracked.

Rodriguez opened at -190, now -201; Morono opened at +167, now +176.
"I'm still inclined to take rodriguez. It just feels like to me i've seen too many times where morono can get into a fight like this where you're like oh, yeah. No, you've got the right idea to hang with …"
LOSS vs Niko Price
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Niko Price 0 108 of 224 48% 138 of 259 5 of 5 100% 0 1 3:37
Alex Morono 0 96 of 210 45% 111 of 225 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Niko Price 0 16 of 51 31% 21 of 58 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:10
Alex Morono 0 34 of 72 47% 40 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
2 Niko Price 0 34 of 65 52% 50 of 83 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:04
Alex Morono 0 21 of 43 48% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
3 Niko Price 0 58 of 108 53% 67 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Alex Morono 0 41 of 95 43% 41 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Niko Price 108 of 224 48% 78 of 181 24 of 33 6 of 10 78 of 182 9 of 19 21 of 23
Alex Morono 96 of 210 45% 74 of 184 13 of 15 9 of 11 91 of 204 2 of 3 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Niko Price 16 of 51 31% 12 of 45 4 of 5 0 of 1 14 of 47 0 of 2 2 of 2
Alex Morono 34 of 72 47% 26 of 63 4 of 4 4 of 5 32 of 70 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Niko Price 34 of 65 52% 22 of 48 8 of 12 4 of 5 16 of 44 3 of 5 15 of 16
Alex Morono 21 of 43 48% 19 of 40 1 of 2 1 of 1 20 of 42 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Niko Price 58 of 108 53% 44 of 88 12 of 16 2 of 4 48 of 91 6 of 12 4 of 5
Alex Morono 41 of 95 43% 29 of 81 8 of 9 4 of 5 39 of 92 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo picks Alex Morono, ignoring their first fight because it was a while ago and both have evolved. He believes Morono is the more technical striker and better grappler, and that his awkward striking will avoid Niko Price's power. He notes Price is always dangerous but thinks Morono's well-roundedness will prevail.

"I think morono is just the better fighter I think he's the more technical Striker he certainly is the better Grappler"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady thinks this fight ends inside the distance with someone getting knocked out. He leans toward Alex Morono getting the knockout, citing Niko Price's shot durability and recent KO loss to Robbie Lawler. He compares it to Morono's KO of Donald Cerrone. However, he notes Price has power and a 90% finish rate, so he will play both sides. He considers Price a live dog at 7,300.

fight doesn't go to decision (-200), Alex Morono wins by knockout
"I think it's probably is marona going out there and getting The Knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody leans toward Price, noting his volume and power. He acknowledges Price's durability is questionable but believes Morono's low volume and lack of power make Price live. Cody mentions Price's previous KO of Morono in 2017 and thinks Price can do it again. He warns that Morono may wait for a perfect shot, but Price's pressure could overwhelm him.

"I'm gonna go with the Niko Price direction too... Price has got sickening volume... Morono is not that guy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Niko Price

Daniel recalls Morono's struggle against Court McGee and notes Price's power. He thinks it's a dog or pass situation and picks Price to win again.

"I'm gonna go Nico price here to beat him a second time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The host expects a repeat of their first fight, where Morono dominated before getting caught. Price's chin is compromised after recent knockouts, and his confidence is low. Morono's stick-and-move style, power, and defensive jiu-jitsu should allow him to land big shots and finish Price, likely by knockout in the second round.

round 2 knockout
"I think we'll see morono capitalize on that... I think it's ultimately going to be a big shot on the chin that puts Nico price out here so give me Alex morono second round knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul leans toward Price, despite acknowledging Price's durability may be fading. He notes Price has sickening volume and power, and Morono's recent performance against Court McGee was poor. Paul thinks Price can outwork Morono and possibly land a KO. He mentions Price's power is the last thing to go and that Morono may be over the hill.

"Everything in my being I know Niko Price is kind of washed but it's like how does Alex Morono lose fights? He gets knocked out... I'm tempted."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono, citing Niko Price's recent chin issues and inactivity. He notes that Price has lost his last two by TKO and looked scripted against Lawler. Morono has been more active and consistent, though he didn't look great in his last fight. He predicts Morono by decision, possibly TKO.

Morono by decision
"I'm going to go with Alex morono here um morono by decision TKO maybe but I'll say decision"
WIN vs Court McGee
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 60 of 160 37% 78 of 184 1 of 6 16% 0 0 3:20
Court McGee 0 38 of 141 26% 42 of 149 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Court McGee 0 12 of 50 24% 12 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alex Morono 0 20 of 41 48% 36 of 61 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:12
Court McGee 0 9 of 28 32% 12 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Alex Morono 0 18 of 67 26% 20 of 71 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:08
Court McGee 0 17 of 63 26% 18 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 60 of 160 37% 14 of 73 29 of 55 17 of 32 52 of 148 0 of 1 8 of 11
Court McGee 38 of 141 26% 26 of 118 9 of 18 3 of 5 38 of 139 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 22 of 52 42% 3 of 16 13 of 25 6 of 11 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Court McGee 12 of 50 24% 8 of 42 2 of 6 2 of 2 12 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alex Morono 20 of 41 48% 7 of 21 8 of 12 5 of 8 12 of 30 0 of 1 8 of 10
Court McGee 9 of 28 32% 6 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alex Morono 18 of 67 26% 4 of 36 8 of 18 6 of 13 18 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 1
Court McGee 17 of 63 26% 12 of 51 4 of 9 1 of 3 17 of 61 0 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo picks Alex Morono because he believes Morono is a step ahead everywhere in this fight and could potentially finish an aging Court McGee. He notes that McGee relied on his work ethic and chin, but at 39, that chin is gone and hard work alone won't get wins. Morono is somewhat unreliable himself, but Angelo thinks he should be good here.

"Morono is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady picks Alex Morono to win by decision. He notes that Morono is six years younger, has better striking volume, and good jiu-jitsu. He believes Court McGee's durability is waning after recent knockouts, but doesn't expect a finish. He thinks Morono will be better wherever the fight goes.

win by decision
"I'm taking morono here I'm taking morono to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Cody agrees, noting McGee's recent knockout losses to Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells. He thinks Morono's volume and speed will be too much, and that McGee's pressure game won't work against a more technical striker. Cody also mentions Morono's competitive fight with Joaquin Buckley has aged well.

"morona kills him... I think it's Justified Chuck on Alex morono"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Alex Morono to finish Court McGee in the first round. He compares McGee to past veterans Morono has stopped, like Josh Burkman and Tim Means, noting McGee is 40 and slow. Vreeland believes Morono's speed, power, and vicious intent will overwhelm McGee, and even if taken down, Morono can pop back up. He predicts a first-round knockout or submission.

first round finish
"I actually think Alex Morano gets a first round finish man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Morono is younger, more durable, and has better striking volume and power. McGee's chin is fading after recent knockouts. Morono's defensive grappling should be enough to keep the fight standing, where he can land damaging combinations. Expect a finish in the second or third round.

Morono by KO/TKO or submission (club and sub)
"I think he knocks out or clubs and Subs McGee at some point in this matchup early going should be a little bit grindy a little bit close but as this fight starts to wear on is and as morono …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Paul is confident in Morono, citing McGee's age, declining durability, and recent knockout losses. He notes McGee's wins are over one-dimensional grapplers, while Morono has better footwork, volume, and takedown defense. Paul thinks Morono will outwork McGee and possibly knock him out, as McGee's durability is gone.

by KO
"morona kills him... don't mind Alex morono knockout one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The host picks Morono based on output and commitment. He notes Morono looked amazing against Buckley and is better than Ventre. He criticizes McGee's recent losses to Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells. He predicts neither will get a KO or dominate grappling, so Morono's higher volume will win a decision.

"I'm going to go Alex morono more committed to the game more volume on the feet and I doubt either of them get a KO over over each other"
LOSS vs Joaquin Buckley
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joaquin Buckley 0 40 of 141 28% 54 of 161 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:13
Alex Morono 0 68 of 176 38% 77 of 186 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joaquin Buckley 0 12 of 33 36% 12 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 10 of 41 24% 14 of 45 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:35
2 Joaquin Buckley 0 15 of 52 28% 25 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 18 of 45 40% 18 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
3 Joaquin Buckley 0 13 of 56 23% 17 of 64 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:13
Alex Morono 0 40 of 90 44% 45 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joaquin Buckley 40 of 141 28% 29 of 122 10 of 17 1 of 2 37 of 133 3 of 8 0 of 0
Alex Morono 68 of 176 38% 41 of 134 24 of 36 3 of 6 55 of 141 2 of 9 11 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joaquin Buckley 12 of 33 36% 9 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 31 0 of 2 0 of 0
Alex Morono 10 of 41 24% 6 of 32 2 of 6 2 of 3 10 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Joaquin Buckley 15 of 52 28% 11 of 44 3 of 6 1 of 2 15 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alex Morono 18 of 45 40% 10 of 31 8 of 13 0 of 1 17 of 41 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Joaquin Buckley 13 of 56 23% 9 of 49 4 of 7 0 of 0 10 of 51 3 of 5 0 of 0
Alex Morono 40 of 90 44% 25 of 71 14 of 17 1 of 2 28 of 59 1 of 5 11 of 26
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joaquin Buckley vs. Alex Morono
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-175), Morono (+145)

Round 1
From one action fight to the next we go, as exciting welterweights Morono (23-8, 1 NC; 12-5, 1 NC UFC) and Buckley (16-6, 6-4 UFC) toe the line in search of another highlight-reel finish. Referee Kerry Hatley will have his hands full, as the match could take place anywhere and end in the blink of an eye. Buckley dances his way to the cage with Beyonce playing, while Morono goes hard with Prong. There is no glove touch to start the fight, and instead Buckley charges like a bull, throwing fists. He ends up grabbing hold of Morono’s legs. Morono pulls his limbs out and returns to striking range, and the welterweights calm down and proceed to measure one another with single blows. Buckley lands a body kick, and Morono splits the guard with a right hand. Morono ducks away from a haymaker and counters with a right hand. Morono catches his man with a right, and Buckley loads up with a right in response to put his man on rubber legs. Morono shakes out the cobwebs and bounces off the fencing, and he chambers a right hand that just misses the forehead. Buckley springs into action with an uppercut, and he spins with a back kick that ends up getting crowded by the Texan. Morono drives a straight right hand after following a jab, and the power punch in response from Buckley grazes off the side of his noggin. Buckley blitzes with a few punches, and Morono is able to parry or avoid them all. A second surge from “New Mansa” also misses the mark each and every time, but Morono does not make him pay for these reckless attacks and instead allows Buckley to hit air. Buckley leaps at him with a knee extended, but Morono is nowhere to be found. Morono hand-fights until putting a right hand on the jaw, and Buckley races after him and tags him right back. Buckley attempts to spin, and Morono’s safe distance disallows it from succeeding. From out of nowhere, Buckley runs at his foe and lifts him off the ground with a double. Morono hits his back and defends with an armbar, and Buckley wriggles his arm out and backs off to escape the guard before upkicks or other submission attempts find him. Buckley lifts him up again, and Morono latches onto a guillotine choke. Buckley ends up slamming Morono down hard to break up the submission, and the energetic round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley

Round 2
At the beginning of the round, Buckley is not quite as wild as before, instead lining up a head kick. The Texan counters him with a picture-perfect right hand that sends Buckley flying, and Buckley scrambles back to his feet. Morono allows him to reset so that he can further trade with his opponent, and Buckley aims a few strikes to the body. Morono looks for a high kick that is feet away from the target, and he leans back from a pair of looping hooks that whiz at him. Buckley lumbers forward and suddenly unloads a few huge hooks, and Morono is out of range in time. Morono aims a front kick down the middle when he expected Buckley will come at him, but Buckley does not bite. Buckley kicks the body, and Morono responds with a kick that slaps him in the posterior and makes Buckley grin. Buckley explodes into a combination that is largely blocked and defended by the Fortis MMA fighter, and when he backs off to measure his man, he drills Morono in the ribs with a stern kick. Morono flicks out a number of jabs, and he leans and ducks a punch so that he can catch Buckley with a right hook on the side of the head. Morono measures and releases a head kick that pounds into the guard, and Buckley kicks him in the body again. Buckley tries to corner his foe with a flurry of punches, but Morono will not have it and backs Buckley off. Buckley whiffs on a kick but lands with a body shot, and he ducks a spinning back fist just in the nick of time. Morono strings a few punches together, gets clipped, and responds with a right. Buckley continues to target the body and head indiscriminately in attacks, keeping Morono guessing and not allowing a pattern to emerge. Buckley digs a left to the body and aims a right over the top, but it is a charging left hook when Morono dodges him that catches Morono. Buckley rushes at his man to jam him up against the fencing, and they trade knees before separating at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley

Round 3
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Buckley leads the dance with a series of punches. Commentator Daniel Cormier starts barking when saying that the fighters “need to bring the dog out,” and Buckley lashes out with power strikes that finally find their home cleanly. A left hand from “New Mansa” busts Morono’s lip, and blood immediately trickles out of his mouth. Morono aims counters, but Buckley appears slightly fresher and able to beat his foe to the punch. Buckley runs forward with a looping left hook, and he slams his right fist into the body. Morono backs him off with a front kick, and the kick rams into his cup. Buckley waves off Hatley and does not want to allow Morono to recover. Morono eats several clean shots, and he is taking damage and trying to back off to survive. Buckley lays into him with a number of unanswered body shots and a few to the head, and Morono hits nothing but air when he replies with a right hand. Buckley spins with a wheel kick, and Morono tackles him to the ground. Buckley bursts back to his feet after only a few seconds on his back, and he smashes Morono in the face with a left hand. Buckley hammers his foe with a number of punches to the body and head, and Morono is leaning against the fence and struggling to stay on his feet. Morono shoots desperately for a takedown, and it is a feeble attempt as he falls to his knees. Buckley lets him stand up so that he can punch the Texan in the face again and again. Morono takes a deep breath and starts firing back, but it is a takedown shot that he goes for a full-throated effort. Buckley stonewalls him and pushes Morono to his back, and he lowers himself into the guard to drop down some heavy ground-and-pound. Morono maintains a high guard, and Buckley opens up with several right hands until Morono adjusts. Buckley keeps tightly pressed to “The Great White” to not allow Morono to latch on with a submission, and he sneaks in some ground strikes when he finds openings. Buckley stands up, and lets Morono up with 15 seconds to spare. Morono meanders forward, and he throws everything into one final right hand that ultimately misses and sends him toppling to the mat. Morono rolls to his back, and Buckley returns to the guard to do a little more damage before the final horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Buckley (30-26 Buckley)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (30-27 Buckley)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (30-27 Buckley)

The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Alex Morono via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley because he is the much better striker with more power, speed, and technique. He notes that Alex Morono is well-rounded and underrated but has low takedown accuracy (20%), so he cannot trust him to wrestle. Buckley has decent takedown defense and has faced good wrestlers. Angelo plans to avoid betting on this fight.

"waim Buckley is going to be the pick he's the more dangerous Striker decent takedown defense"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley, emphasizing Buckley's significant power advantage over Alex Morono. He notes that Morono is more of a decision fighter and has been hurt more often recently. He expects the fight to stay standing and that Buckley will eventually land a big shot, predicting a third-round knockout.

third round knockout for Joaquin Buckley
"give me Buckley to win this fight I'll take Buckley to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Cody picks Buckley, citing his speed, athleticism, and ability to land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Morono has taken a lot of damage recently and may be hesitant. Buckley's takedowns and movement should allow him to win rounds, though Cody acknowledges Buckley's history of getting knocked out.

"I am gonna go yokine Buckley... I recognize this as live Underdog potential... but ultimately I do think that Buckley's... rounding out his game"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his superior speed, athleticism, and hand speed. He notes that both fighters have suspect chins but Buckley is the better athlete and is dropping to his proper weight class at 170. He expects Buckley's speed and explosiveness to be the difference, though he acknowledges a chance someone gets knocked out.

"I'm going with Buckley in this fight and I do think there's a chance someone hits the deck here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Joaquin Buckley

Lucrative James picks Buckley by knockout in round two or three. He thinks Morono will be winning early but Buckley will figure out his awkwardness and land heavy shots. He compares it to the Ponzinibbio fight where Morono kept getting caught. He likes over 1.5 rounds as well.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think Buckley's gonna get around two or three knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Buckley has the power and agility to catch Morono in pocket exchanges. Morono is durable but leaves openings and has been knocked out before. Buckley should land a big shot and finish him. Morono may win minutes but Buckley's power is the difference. Expect a knockout victory for Buckley.

knockout
"I think Buckley catches him and I think Buckley puts him away give me Buckley by knock out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Paul picks Buckley, expecting a close fight that goes to decision with Buckley landing the more damaging strikes. He notes that both fighters are similar in size, which favors Buckley. Paul mentions that Morono has a questionable chin but hasn't been knocked out recently, so he leans toward Buckley by decision.

Buckley by decision, Over 36.5 significant strikes for Buckley
"Buckley's a pick for me as well... if I was chasing a prop it would probably be Buckley by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley over Alex Morono, predicting a TKO in the second round. He believes Buckley's intention to take Morono's head off will be the difference, as Morono tries to outpoint to a decision. He notes Morono was doing well against Ponzinibbio until he got knocked out in round three, and that Morono's wins haven't aged well. He also mentions Buckley's size and reach advantage.

TKO second round
"I'm going Joaquin Buckley over Alex morono"
WIN vs Tim Means
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:09 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 40 of 87 45% 45 of 92 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:46
Tim Means 0 33 of 92 35% 42 of 102 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 32 of 64 50% 34 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Tim Means 0 18 of 58 31% 27 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alex Morono 0 8 of 23 34% 11 of 26 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:19
Tim Means 0 15 of 34 44% 15 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 40 of 87 45% 16 of 52 18 of 29 6 of 6 30 of 74 10 of 13 0 of 0
Tim Means 33 of 92 35% 29 of 86 4 of 6 0 of 0 31 of 86 2 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 32 of 64 50% 10 of 32 16 of 26 6 of 6 23 of 52 9 of 12 0 of 0
Tim Means 18 of 58 31% 16 of 55 2 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 52 2 of 6 0 of 0
2 Alex Morono 8 of 23 34% 6 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tim Means 15 of 34 44% 13 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo leans on Morono, noting his clean striking and recent improvements. He says Tim Means is gritty and well-rounded, and that unless you're ranked or dangerous, you shouldn't be a 2-to-1 favorite over Means. He calls it a close fight and is not betting on it.

"I am gonna lean on him for the pick here but holy crap is this a close fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady is a huge Tim Means fan but has serious concerns about Means' durability at 39 years old and after 48 fights. He notes Means has been getting dropped and finished recently, and questions his focus as he seems more into coaching. Brady compares this to the Morono vs. Cerrone fight, predicting Morono will land a big shot, swarm, and finish Means. He picks Morono by second-round knockout and suggests Means may retire after this fight.

second round knockout
"give me Alex marona to win this fight I'll say he wins this fight by second round knockout I think he knocks out Tim Means on Saturday"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Cody picks Morono, citing Tim Means' age (39) and 50 pro fights, leading to durability and speed decline. He notes Means' tendency to gas after the first round and Morono's volume and pressure. He expects Morono to chew away at Means and possibly get a late stoppage. He acknowledges Means' skill but believes his best days are behind him.

"I'm just doubting it on a personal level so we'll take Alex morono to get the job done which pains me because we've been doing this show for like nine years and we've been covering Tim Means fights pretty much …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Connor picks Morono, agreeing that Means is past his prime and gets hurt too often. He highlights Morono's lateral movement, jab, and counter-punching, which will frustrate Means. He thinks Means will have moments but ultimately lose a decision or get dropped.

"I got to take Morono, even if it's by decision, I think it's much more likely that Tim Means gets dropped in a couple of rounds."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Daniel Levi picks Alex Morono but with low confidence, citing Tim Means' age (39-40) and declining durability as the deciding factor. He notes that statistically, Means is competitive and would be a live dog if younger, but Means' recent fights show he can't take damage like before. Levi expects a competitive fight but favors Morono's unorthodox style and durability. He passes on betting due to the price, calling it a dog-or-pass situation.

pass on betting at -225; fight could go to decision or be a war
"I'm gonna pick Alex Morano but it's not a confident pick and it's not something I'm interested it's a dog or pass situation"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Morono's pressure, pace, and volume will be too much for Means, who has diminished durability at 39. Means is the better technical striker but can't take shots like before. Morono will march forward, land big shots, and likely find a knockout or submission. Means may have moments but Morono's relentless style will overwhelm him.

inside the distance, TKO
"gimme Alex morono inside the distance I'm gonna call it via TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Morono. He notes that Means gasses after 6-7 minutes and lacks a grappling game. He mentions that Morono might mix in takedowns and fish for a submission, and that the market has moved on that prop. He sees Morono as the rightful favorite.

submission prop (market moved from 9-1 to 6.5-1)
"my biggest struggle yeah I just I just can't get behind the dirty bird at this point he seems to really absolutely guess about six seven minutes into every single fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono, noting that he had a full training camp and has better hand speed and cardio. He believes Tim Means has slowed down and will struggle with Morono's pace. He predicts a dominant decision or a late finish.

dominant decision win 30-27
"Alex morono I think is going to win this matchup... I see him getting finished on the feet maybe as the fight goes on or maybe there'll be a dominant decision win for morono here 30 27."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Zane picks Morono, citing Tim Means' age (39) and tendency to get hurt now. He notes that Means' pressure-counter style leaves him vulnerable, and Morono's awkward but effective striking, good footwork, and jab will cause problems. He thinks Morono will land a big counter and potentially drop Means, though a decision is likely.

"I got to take Morono, even if it's by decision, I think it's much more likely that Tim Means gets dropped in a couple of rounds."
KO (punches) R3 2:29 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Santiago Ponzinibbio 1 66 of 155 42% 66 of 155 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Alex Morono 1 38 of 131 29% 38 of 131 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 22 of 42 52% 22 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 1 17 of 55 30% 17 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 26 of 73 35% 26 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 13 of 50 26% 13 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Santiago Ponzinibbio 1 18 of 40 45% 18 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Alex Morono 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Santiago Ponzinibbio 66 of 155 42% 31 of 99 26 of 47 9 of 9 65 of 153 0 of 0 1 of 2
Alex Morono 38 of 131 29% 34 of 120 4 of 11 0 of 0 34 of 124 0 of 0 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Santiago Ponzinibbio 22 of 42 52% 6 of 19 11 of 18 5 of 5 22 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Morono 17 of 55 30% 14 of 51 3 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 48 0 of 0 4 of 7
2 Santiago Ponzinibbio 26 of 73 35% 12 of 48 12 of 23 2 of 2 26 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Morono 13 of 50 26% 12 of 45 1 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Santiago Ponzinibbio 18 of 40 45% 13 of 32 3 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 38 0 of 0 1 of 2
Alex Morono 8 of 26 30% 8 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Angelo picks Ponzinibbio, noting his clean striking, range control, and volume. He warns that Ponzinibbio must avoid Lawler's power and treat him with respect. He believes Ponzinibbio can get a finish if he maintains a high pace like Barbarena did. He acknowledges Lawler is dangerous even at 40 but thinks Ponzinibbio's technical approach will win.

"ponzanibio is the pick but avoid the power do what you do stay technical use the range pour on some volume"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, but is not confident in the price. He notes Ponzinibbio has lost a step but still competes at a high level, while Morono is a short-notice replacement. He expects a close fight that goes to decision, with Ponzinibbio outpointing Morono.

Ponzinibbio wins by decision; fight goes to decision
"I'm gonna take pawns and maybe to win I'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Cody picks Ponzinibbio, citing his volume striking, footwork, and ability to absorb damage. He notes Ponzinibbio has been competitive against high-level guys despite recent split decision losses. He thinks Morono is a 50/50 fighter who fights to his opponent's level and is taking the fight on short notice. He expects Ponzinibbio to win by decision.

Ponzinibbio by decision
"I would have to say that pausing Ebu just goes there and works morono over... I do have him winning by decision more specifically"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Connor picks Ponzinibbio, citing his full camp, powerful straight punches, and low kicks. He notes Morono is a short-notice replacement and lacks the athleticism to handle Ponzinibbio's sustained offense. Connor believes Ponzinibbio's persistence and power will overwhelm Morono, who tends to put himself in danger.

Odds: Morono opened +220, dropped to +151; Ponzinibbio opened -260, now -182.
"I still think I'm going to have to take him for having a full camp. Ponsinibio style doesn't really change ever from opponent to opponent."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio but with low confidence due to Ponzinibbio's diminished form after a health scare. He praises Ponzinibbio's prime style: stalking footwork, calf kicks, and a beautiful straight right. However, he notes Ponzinibbio is a step slower now and has gone 1-3 in his last four. Levi acknowledges Morono's toughness and awkward brawling style, but believes Ponzinibbio's cleaner striking and experience should carry him. He warns not to be surprised if Morono wins.

"I still think he gets it done but you just can't act surprised if he doesn't"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Lock likes Ponzinibbio to win, believing he will torch Morono from the jump and eventually knock him out. He sees Morono as a plodding forward fighter whose durability holds up some nights but not against Ponzinibbio's striking. From a long-term perspective, he thinks Ponzinibbio will get a decent bump but will lose against higher-level competition. He recommends a pump and dump on Ponzinibbio this weekend.

pump and dump on PredictionStrike
"pumping up this weekend on panzanibio I'd say I don't mind it I don't mind that one bit"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Ponzinibbio. He notes that Ponzinibbio has been preparing for this fight for a long time while Morono is on short notice. He thinks the minus 180 line is fair and is surprised it's not higher given the circumstances. He sees Ponzinibbio's experience and preparation as key factors.

"I'm with you I'm gonna take uh ponzanibio as well minus 180 seems relatively Fair too to be perfectly honest so I'm a little bit surprised by that number particularly with Alex morono coming in on short notice"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio over Robbie Lawler (note: transcript says Lawler but fight is Ponzinibbio vs Morono; likely error). He believes Ponzinibbio will jab Lawler's face off and win by TKO in round two or three. He criticizes Lawler's age and recent performances, and thinks Ponzinibbio's range striking will be too much.

"I'm gonna be going with Santiago ponz nibio over Robbie Lawler"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Zane picks Ponzinibbio, emphasizing his ability to rally back in fights and his power. He notes Morono's grit but says Ponzinibbio's sustained offense and punching power are a level above Morono's recent opponents. Zane is concerned about Morono's short notice but trusts Ponzinibbio's experience.

Odds: Morono opened +220, now +151; Ponzinibbio opened -260, now -182.
"I'm going to pick Santiago Ponson to be out here. I just think that despite even beyond the short notice Ponson to be Oh getting put away early by Legion, the longest concern, but the way he's rallied back against …"
Carlos Leal - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chidi Njokuani 0 120 of 205 58% 124 of 210 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Carlos Leal 0 115 of 276 41% 126 of 287 0 of 5 0% 0 0 2:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chidi Njokuani 0 46 of 70 65% 46 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Leal 0 60 of 131 45% 60 of 131 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chidi Njokuani 0 22 of 35 62% 26 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Carlos Leal 0 5 of 20 25% 16 of 31 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:17
3 Chidi Njokuani 0 52 of 100 52% 52 of 100 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Carlos Leal 0 50 of 125 40% 50 of 125 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chidi Njokuani 120 of 205 58% 45 of 110 39 of 57 36 of 38 105 of 187 14 of 16 1 of 2
Carlos Leal 115 of 276 41% 71 of 226 29 of 35 15 of 15 112 of 271 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chidi Njokuani 46 of 70 65% 8 of 23 19 of 27 19 of 20 39 of 62 7 of 8 0 of 0
Carlos Leal 60 of 131 45% 28 of 95 21 of 25 11 of 11 58 of 128 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Chidi Njokuani 22 of 35 62% 6 of 16 9 of 11 7 of 8 17 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 1
Carlos Leal 5 of 20 25% 4 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Chidi Njokuani 52 of 100 52% 31 of 71 11 of 19 10 of 10 49 of 96 2 of 3 1 of 1
Carlos Leal 50 of 125 40% 39 of 112 8 of 10 3 of 3 49 of 123 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Chidi Njokuani

Angelo picks Chidi Njokuani, noting he bet him at +165 and the line has moved. He praises Njokuani's striking, speed, power, and distance control, while criticizing Carlos Leal's porous defense and recent knockout loss. He expects Njokuani to chew up Leal's legs and win a striking match.

Bet on Chidi at +165; mentions line movement.
"I'm picking Cheaty, for [__] sake."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Carlos Leal

Big Brady picks Carlos Leal to defeat Chidi Njokuani, citing Njokuani's poor durability and tendency to quit under adversity. He notes Njokuani has been finished nine times and cannot battle through bad spots. He trusts Leal's chin more, despite a recent knockout loss to Muslim Salikhov, as that was the first time Leal was ever hurt. He predicts Leal will break Njokuani late in the first round with a knockout.

Carlos Leal by first-round knockout
"I got to go Carlos Leal in this type of fight... I think Carlos Leal's going to come out here and make it a war. ... Give me Carlos Leal by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Leal

Cody is tempted to follow the line movement and pick Njokuani, but ultimately leans Leal because of his forward pressure and power. He thinks Leal's style will overwhelm Njokuani, who has tall man defense and has been knocked out before. He expects a TKO finish within a round and a half.

Leal under 1.5 rounds
"Leel under one and a half. Leel by TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Carlos Leal

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Leal. He notes that Njokuani is all over the place under pressure—easy to take down, breaks stance and posture against the fence. Connor also mentions Njokuani's 'Paul Felder syndrome' of waiting for the perfect strike instead of doing damage, which costs him rounds.

"I think i'll ride with you. I would really like to see I always enjoy seeing cheetie win... but i'll take leal. I I trust him to just go in there and run at and jacwani"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Chidi Njokuani

The host believes Chidi Njokuani has a significant striking advantage due to his size, reach, and technical precision. He highlights Carlos Leal's reckless style, poor head movement, and defensive flaws, which have led to him being knocked out by lesser strikers. The host caps Njokuani's win probability at 60-65%, giving a 13-18% margin over the implied probability of 47% from the odds. He acknowledges Njokuani's age (37) and ground game weakness but considers them mitigated by Leal's lack of wrestling.

Njokuani by KO/TKO is likely; host mentions he could knock Leal out by punishing his recklessness.
"I would personally cap Chidi Enja Kawwani at 60 to 65% in this matchup based on the footage I'm about to show you which gives us a very nice you know 13% plus margin over the bookies as high as …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Chidi Njokuani

James picks the underdog Chidi Njokuani to win by KO in round one, citing Njokuani's elite Muay Thai clinch and knees. He notes that Carlos Leal Miranda's aggressive style leaves him open to being caught, as seen in his last fight. James believes Njokuani's range and clinch work will nullify Miranda's boxing and lead to a finish.

"I'm actually going to pick the underdog in this one, boys. I'm going to overall pick Chitty and Juani via KO in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Chidi Njokuani

Njokuani is the more skilled striker with a significant reach advantage, and he has good durability at welterweight. Leal is a power puncher but was knocked out in his last fight and may be hesitant. Njokuani can eat shots and counter, and his Muay Thai should allow him to land damaging elbows and knees. Expect a knockout within two rounds.

"I expect this fight to last maybe a round and a half, maybe two rounds tops. But I think Angela Kawani is constantly going to be able to thwart the forward pressure of Laya, land those counters, and eventually one …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chidi Njokuani

Paul notes the significant line movement and thinks there may be an undisclosed injury to Leal. He prefers to avoid the fight but picks Njokuani based on reach and Muay Thai. He admits it's a low-confidence pick.

"I'm still going with cheaty."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Chidi Njokuani

The MMA Guru picks Chidi Njokuani by TKO, noting that Leal is coming off a KO loss and may be gun-shy. He believes Njokuani's tight hook can catch Leal, who has a tendency to come forward with his hands wide. He also thinks Leal won't grapple offensively, playing into Njokuani's striking strengths.

TKO in round one or two
"I'm going to go with Chidi Njokuani TKO'ing Carlos Leal in round one or two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Carlos Leal

Zane picks Leal because he trusts Leal to pressure Njokuani relentlessly. He notes that Njokuani tends to fall apart under sustained pressure, getting finished in most of his losses. Zane believes Leal will be in the fight all the way, while Njokuani could spiral if things go wrong.

"i'm gonna pick leal still just because and jacwani does get finished so often when he loses"
LOSS vs Muslim Salikhov
KO R1 0:42 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muslim Salikhov 1 3 of 9 33% 3 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Leal 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muslim Salikhov 1 3 of 9 33% 3 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Leal 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muslim Salikhov 3 of 9 33% 1 of 4 1 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Leal 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 8 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muslim Salikhov 3 of 9 33% 1 of 4 1 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Leal 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 8 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Muslim Salikhov vs. Carlos Leal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Leal (-400); Salikhov (+320)

Round 1
The old guard of the UFC is not entirely falling apart as of late. The example in this matchup is Salikhov (21-5, 8-4 UFC), who has won two in a row—his last victory via his beloved spinning wheel kick—and now is at the tender age of 41. He will be trying to show Leal (22-6, 1-1 UFC), 10 years his junior, that age is nothing but a number. The welterweight strikers will be joined in the Octagon by referee Dan Movahedi, who initiates the proceedings and bears witness to a brief fist bump.
Salikhov gets right on his bike firing off kicks to the lead leg and body. Leal marches him down to reach boxing range, where he intends on lining up one-twos down Broadway. The Brazilian swings hard, not giving Salikhov much space, and a straight left hand gets Salikhov’s attention.
The 41-year-old bites down on his mouthpiece to give his foe back some fire, slipping a jab and lobbing a massive right hand from his hip that careens into the forehead of Lean. The Brazilian hits the deck, devoid of his senses, and Salikhov walks away knowing that his work here is done.
He strides over to the commentary team to remind them of his age, and it is hard to say if he knows that he just became the first fighter to ever knock out the ultra-durable Leal. This marks the first time since 2019 that “The King of Kung Fu” picked up back-to-back consciousness-depriving knockouts, as he obliterated Kenan Song last November with a spinning wheel kick. To stick the landing, Salikhov calls for a matchup against Stephen Thompson that would undoubtedly display some traditional martial arts fireworks.

The Official Result
Muslim Salikhov def. Carlos Leal R1 0:42 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Leal

Angelo picks Carlos Leal, citing his dangerous Muay Thai, forward pressure, durability, and power. He notes Muslim Salikhov is 41 with a declining chin, and Leal's pressure will prevent Salikhov from using his unorthodox karate. He considers -400 odds appropriate but will parlay Leal rather than bet straight.

Will parlay Leal; odds -400
"Carlos is going to be the pick. I do think if Muslim has success with the unorthodox striking, then Carlos is just going to start to wrestle."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Leal

Big Brady picks Carlos Leal Miranda, citing his pressure style and power. He notes Salikhov is old (calls him 60+), needs space to throw spinning attacks, and does not like being pressured. He compares it to the Leech fight where pressure led to a finish. He predicts a second-round knockout, warning only about a potential spinning wheel kick.

second round knockout
"I like Carlos Liao here. ... I think he should go out there and knock out Salakov."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Leal

Leal is a big favorite and deservedly so. He is expected to walk down Salikhov, take his best shots, but throw even harder in return, leading to a knockout victory.

knockout
"Lal big favorite here and deservedly so. Expect him to walk down Salakov, take some of his best shots, but throw even harder in return leading to a Lal knockout victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Leal

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Leal, calling him a 'monster' and noting his physicality and pressure. He believes Salikhov is aging and has a reach disadvantage, and that Leal will get in his face and beat him up against the cage. He predicts a second-round TKO after a tricky first round.

Round 2 TKO
"I'm going to go with Liao. ... Carlos Liao round two TKO."
WIN vs Alex Morono
KO R1 4:16 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 40 of 95 42% 41 of 96 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Carlos Leal 0 79 of 120 65% 81 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 40 of 95 42% 41 of 96 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Carlos Leal 0 79 of 120 65% 81 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 40 of 95 42% 32 of 82 4 of 9 4 of 4 35 of 87 5 of 8 0 of 0
Carlos Leal 79 of 120 65% 49 of 89 28 of 29 2 of 2 54 of 91 25 of 29 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 40 of 95 42% 32 of 82 4 of 9 4 of 4 35 of 87 5 of 8 0 of 0
Carlos Leal 79 of 120 65% 49 of 89 28 of 29 2 of 2 54 of 91 25 of 29 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinat Fakhretdinov 0 109 of 222 49% 119 of 236 2 of 19 10% 0 0 3:14
Carlos Leal 0 107 of 246 43% 146 of 292 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinat Fakhretdinov 0 24 of 53 45% 28 of 59 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:57
Carlos Leal 0 28 of 63 44% 56 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rinat Fakhretdinov 0 33 of 68 48% 37 of 73 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:53
Carlos Leal 0 37 of 86 43% 44 of 94 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Rinat Fakhretdinov 0 52 of 101 51% 54 of 104 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:24
Carlos Leal 0 42 of 97 43% 46 of 103 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinat Fakhretdinov 109 of 222 49% 82 of 184 15 of 26 12 of 12 96 of 197 13 of 25 0 of 0
Carlos Leal 107 of 246 43% 72 of 207 16 of 20 19 of 19 94 of 231 13 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinat Fakhretdinov 24 of 53 45% 17 of 43 3 of 6 4 of 4 24 of 47 0 of 6 0 of 0
Carlos Leal 28 of 63 44% 19 of 53 5 of 6 4 of 4 24 of 59 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Rinat Fakhretdinov 33 of 68 48% 24 of 56 5 of 8 4 of 4 31 of 65 2 of 3 0 of 0
Carlos Leal 37 of 86 43% 25 of 72 3 of 5 9 of 9 35 of 83 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Rinat Fakhretdinov 52 of 101 51% 41 of 85 7 of 12 4 of 4 41 of 85 11 of 16 0 of 0
Carlos Leal 42 of 97 43% 28 of 82 8 of 9 6 of 6 35 of 89 7 of 8 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Big Brady picks Fakhretdinov, emphasizing his dominant wrestling. He acknowledges Leal has good striking and takedown defense but believes Fakhretdinov will implement his will with cage pushing and control time. He predicts a decision win, possibly boring.

"I got to go ferin off here um I just think he's going to implement his will I think he's going to push out against the cage"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Cody picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, believing his wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Leal has questionable takedown defense and that Fakhretdinov can grind out a decision. However, Cody is not confident because Fakhretdinov has gassed in recent fights and struggled against strikers. He expects a decision win.

Fakhretdinov by decision
"I got R Faker enough Rea Faker Enough by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Connor picks Fakhretdinov, agreeing that Leal is a good veteran but his game is not modern MMA. Leal relies on kicks and clinch wrestling but lacks pace and volume. Fakhretdinov's pressure and wrestling will overwhelm Leal, and this fight was made to give Fakhretdinov a decisive win.

"Yeah. Fakardinov is not Fakardinov is going to clash with him. And if that, if that means a clinch wrestling exchange, great. Yeah. I Fakardinov loves that. And if it means that Leal is forced to go onto the back …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Daniel Vreeland sees Rinat Fakhretdinov as a tough matchup for Carlos Leal, especially on short notice. He notes that Leal lost twice to Magomed Umalatov in PFL, who used clinch and takedowns to outmuscle him, and Fakhretdinov has similar skills. Vreeland believes Fakhretdinov will grind out a win via takedowns and control, and thinks the -250 line is still low.

higher than 3 takedowns for Fakhretdinov (Underdog fantasy pick)
"give me rat ferin off here I think negative 250 probably still low for him"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Daniel Vreeland picks Rinat Fakhretdinov to win, but with low confidence due to Fakhretdinov's recent performances and questionable gas tank. He notes that Fakhretdinov has dominant top-time upside and that Leal is taking the fight on short notice. Vreeland would need a better price to bet Fakhretdinov, but expects him to get takedowns and potentially grind out a win.

"I'm going renat here"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Jeff Fox agrees with Vreeland, calling Fakhretdinov a tough matchup for anyone. He notes that Leal has weight-cutting issues and is making his UFC debut on short notice, which makes it even harder. Fox expects Fakhretdinov to grind out a win, though he doesn't provide additional technical detail.

"he's pretty much he's a tough match up for anyone at this point"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Fakhretdinov has a wrestling and grappling advantage over the short-notice UFC debutant Leal. He should be able to grind out a decision victory by controlling the fight on the ground. Leal deserves to be in the UFC but this is a bad stylistic matchup for him.

"look for fard of to win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Paul picks Fakhretdinov, citing his wrestling and control. He notes that Leal is a good striker but has been taken down before. Paul believes Fakhretdinov can implement a grappling-heavy game plan and win by decision. He is not highly confident due to Fakhretdinov's cardio issues.

"I think Faker dinov just takes him down and grinds on him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

The Guru picks Rinat Fakhretdinov, believing his pressure and well-rounded game will be too much for Carlos Leal, who took the fight on short notice. He notes Fakhretdinov's win over Brian Battle was impressive and that Leal's preparation was for a different opponent. He predicts Fakhretdinov will win by decision or submission, possibly facing some danger early.

Decision or submission
"I'm going to go with Rinat Fakhretdinov getting this one done by decision or submission maybe a tough fight maybe some danger in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Carlos Leal

Zane clearly picked Leal, calling the decision a robbery. He argued that Fakhretdinov was doing less damage and fighting from behind in every round, while Leal fought well and was in control. Zane dismissed the idea that the crowd influenced the judges, noting there was no crowd. He called it one of the worst robberies of the year.

"this is a straight up robbery might be one of the worst robberies of the year"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Zane picks Fakhretdinov because he is a pressure fighter who will clash with Leal and win the clinch wrestling exchanges. Leal is awkward, flat-footed, and lacks pace and volume, while Fakhretdinov keeps pushing and is tough to dissuade. Zane sees this as a clear matchup made for Fakhretdinov to get a statement win.

"Fakardinov is not Fakardinov is going to clash with him. And if that, if that means a clinch wrestling exchange, great. Yeah. I Fakardinov loves that. And if it means that Leal is forced to go onto the back foot, …"