Career Averages - Brunno Ferreira
Career Averages - Armen Petrosyan
Brunno Ferreira - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Rodrigues | 1 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregory Rodrigues | 1 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Rodrigues | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregory Rodrigues | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo notes that both fighters are similar with heavy hands and poor cardio, but Gregory is larger and has better fight IQ. He expects Gregory to wrestle early to avoid another knockout, as Bruno knocked him out in their first fight when Gregory was ill-prepared. He believes Gregory will slow the pace and win on the scorecards.
Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues over Brunno Ferreira in a rematch. He notes Ferreira knocked out Rodrigues in the first fight, but Rodrigues has elite jiu-jitsu that he underutilizes. Brady believes if Rodrigues fights smart, mixes in takedowns, and uses his grappling, he can submit Ferreira, who gassed badly against Abus Magomedov. He predicts a second-round submission, warning that if Rodrigues stands and bangs, he could get knocked out again.
Cody also picks Ferreira, highlighting Rodrigues' defensive flaws and tendency to gas. He notes Ferreira's speed and power, and that Rodrigues has been knocked out before. He expects Ferreira to land a big shot and finish.
Connor picks Rodrigues despite the first loss, noting that Rodrigues was styling on Ferreira before getting caught. He believes Rodrigues's improved grappling and willingness to test Ferreira's submission defense will be key. However, he acknowledges that Ferreira's one-punch power and Rodrigues's tendency to fade late make this a risky pick. Connor sees it as a well-matched rematch where either outcome is possible.
Daniel Vreeland picks Brunno Ferreira as a plus-170 underdog, believing the odds should be closer. He notes that Ferreira knocked out Rodrigues in their first fight and has power that can end the fight early. Vreeland acknowledges both fighters have cardio issues and one-shot power, but he likes the value on Ferreira.
James picks Brunno Ferreira as the value side, noting that Ferreira already knocked out Rodrigues in their first fight and has the power to do it again. He highlights Rodrigues' poor chin and tendency to get hit, while Ferreira's leaping left hook is a dangerous weapon. James admits he is not confident but cannot trust Rodrigues at minus-200 odds due to his chin issues. He expects Ferreira to win by KO, likely early.
Rodrigues has a height and reach advantage and will play it safe early before finding a knockout as Ferreira slows. He learned from the first fight and should be more assertive. The fight finishes inside the distance. Waiting for a better line is advised.
Paul picks Ferreira as a dog, citing Rodrigues' durability issues and poor head movement. He notes Ferreira's speed and power, and that he already knocked out Rodrigues. He sees value at plus money and expects a knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Brunno Ferreira, citing his previous KO win over Rodrigues. He believes Ferreira's power and finishing ability will be too much, and that Rodrigues is chinny. He predicts a KO win, possibly in a scrappy fight.
Zane picks Rodrigues, echoing Connor's reasoning. He notes that Rodrigues has become more willing to grapple and can use ground-and-pound to finish. Zane points out that Ferreira's game is limited to wild overhands and sacrificial submissions, and Rodrigues should be able to avoid the big shot if he fights smart. However, he admits that Ferreira's power makes it a dangerous fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 88 of 186 | 47% | 90 of 188 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 77 of 149 | 51% | 77 of 149 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 27 of 49 | 55% | 28 of 50 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 31 of 71 | 43% | 31 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 30 of 55 | 54% | 30 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 30 of 66 | 45% | 31 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 22 of 47 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 88 of 186 | 47% | 78 of 176 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 9 | 86 of 181 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 77 of 149 | 51% | 60 of 130 | 9 of 10 | 8 of 9 | 73 of 143 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 27 of 49 | 55% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 25 of 47 | 53% | 18 of 40 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | |
| 2 | Marvin Vettori | 31 of 71 | 43% | 27 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 68 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 30 of 55 | 54% | 21 of 45 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 27 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marvin Vettori | 30 of 66 | 45% | 29 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 22 of 47 | 46% | 21 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Marvin Vettori, citing his incredible durability and experience against top competition. He notes that Vettori has been fighting the top 10 for years, while Ferreira has not faced the same level. Angelo acknowledges Ferreira's power and judo but doubts his cardio and ability to hurt Vettori. He expects Vettori to weather an early storm and win a decision, and he bet on the over 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Marvin Vettori despite calling him 'washed'. He notes Vettori's durability and volume, and Ferreira's cardio issues, referencing Ferreira's loss to Abus Magomedov. He expects Vettori to mix in takedowns, grind on Ferreira, and submit him in the third round.
Cody picks Vettori, citing his durability and volume. He notes that Vettori has never been finished and has gone the distance with top competition. He believes Ferreira relies on early finishes and will fade if he doesn't get them. He thinks Vettori will outwork Ferreira and win by decision.
Connor picks Brunno Ferreira, citing that Vettori has lost his way after leaving Kings MMA and now fights without a clear game plan. He notes that Ferreira is a power puncher with submission threats, and while Vettori should win on paper, his recent performances show he is adrift. Connor calls it a vibes pick.
Daniel picks Ferreira, citing Vettori's decline (1-5 since title fight), lack of power, and fading durability. He believes Ferreira's power and finishing ability will be too much, and he expects Ferreira to become the first to finish Vettori in the UFC. He notes Vettori's volume edge but doubts it matters.
Lucrative James believes Marvin Vettori has looked washed recently, with declining durability. He notes Ferreira's power and thinks Vettori's chin may finally crack. He acknowledges the risk of betting against a proven chin but sees value in Ferreira as an underdog. He leans towards a KO win for Ferreira but does not predict the method definitively.
The host notes the opposite recent records but sees this as a step up in competition for Ferreira. He highlights Vettori's never-been-finished durability and Ferreira's lack of decision wins, expecting Vettori to bully Ferreira and pull out the win in deep water.
Paul agrees, emphasizing Vettori's chin and experience against elite fighters. He notes that Ferreira's wins are all first-round finishes and that he has never won a decision. He believes Vettori's size and durability will allow him to outlast Ferreira and win by decision or late finish.
The Guru picks Brunno Ferreira to finish Marvin Vettori, despite Vettori's legendary chin. He notes Vettori is becoming more hittable and showing damage, and Ferreira has KO power and submissions. The Guru predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission.
Zane picks Brunno Ferreira, agreeing that Vettori has destroyed his own ability to fight with a good process. He notes that Ferreira is a power puncher with poor footwork but has knockout wins. Zane believes Vettori's indecision and gun-shyness could lead to Ferreira landing a big shot.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Jackson McVey | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Jackson McVey | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brunno Ferreira | 7 of 9 | 77% | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jackson McVey | 4 of 15 | 26% | 3 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunno Ferreira | 7 of 9 | 77% | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jackson McVey | 4 of 15 | 26% | 3 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ferreira (-600), McVey (+440)
Round 1
Violence is almost guaranteed in this next preliminary tilt, as these two middleweights each celebrate 100% finish rates. Ferreira (13-2, 4-2 UFC) will now draw McVey (6-0, 0-0 UFC) after a round robin of opponent switches for both men, and they are more than ready to hit something. Referee Kerry Hatley will make sure that they do so on the up-and-up. Before looking to lop one another’s head off, the intense 185ers touch gloves.
Ferreira gets right on his bike and circles around to find his way in, trying to look for angles towards the taller newcomer. Ferreira fires off a body kick after about 30 seconds of inactivity, and he circles all the way around his adversary with nary another strike thrown. McVey offers a few pawing front kicks to see if he can reach “The Hulk,” and he has a high kick skim across Ferreira’s shoulder. Ferreira steps in to jack McVey in the jaw with a right hook, but it is one-and-done as he backs off to avoid counters. Ferreira scores a low kick and shells up to block a few punches and a high kick. He blasts the front leg with a kick, and McVey stumbles and smiles to try to keep a poker face. Ferreira turns around carelessly to reset, and McVey tackles him to the mat from behind and briefly takes his back.
The incredibly strong Brazilian stands up with McVey on his back, leans over and slams McVey over his head to the mat. McVey lands with a grunt, and Ferreira leisurely sits down in side control to start doing work with elbow. When McVey looks to scramble, Ferreira slices into full mount like a hot knife through butter.
Ferreira lowers himself down for an arm-triangle choke setup, but it is a ruse as he traps McVey’s arm from the side and rolls him over, the armbar already set. Ferreira turns belly-down to complete the submission
, and the newcomer is shocked at how fast Ferreira nailed that sub and taps out frantically. “The Hulk” releases the grip immediately and runs to his corner to embrace them. His 100% finish rate remains intact.
The Official Result
Brunno Ferreira def. Jackson McVey R1 3:35 via Submission (Armbar)
Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira to win, citing his power, grappling, and experience. He notes that Jackson McVey has had a chaotic lead-up with multiple fight cancellations and weight cuts, which will work against him. However, he warns against betting heavy on Ferreira due to cardio issues.
Big Brady expects Brunno Ferreira to knock out Jackson McVey in the first round, citing Ferreira's scary power and McVey's step up in competition. He feels bad for McVey but sees a mismatch.
The host notes that McVey is on short notice and facing the most difficult opponent he's ever come across. He believes Ferreira will crush him and finish him within the first round, indicating a high confidence in a first-round finish.
The MMA Guru picks Brunno Ferreira over Jackson McVey, calling it a mismatch. He notes that McVey is a debutant who was originally scheduled to fight someone else and has been in a depleted state due to weight cuts. Ferreira is described as a very good middleweight with dynamic striking and power, having knocked out Gregory Rodriguez in the first round. The Guru predicts a second-round TKO for Ferreira, as McVey's stand-up is hesitant and rushed, and he will likely get caught.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 27 of 56 | 48% | 31 of 63 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 46 of 83 | 55% | 47 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 23 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 17 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 24 of 44 | 54% | 24 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brunno Ferreira | 27 of 56 | 48% | 14 of 40 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 25 of 53 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 46 of 83 | 55% | 19 of 54 | 7 of 7 | 20 of 22 | 46 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunno Ferreira | 13 of 25 | 52% | 6 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 11 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 22 of 39 | 56% | 6 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 13 | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brunno Ferreira | 14 of 31 | 45% | 8 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 24 of 44 | 54% | 13 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 24 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 26 of 59 | 44% | 45 of 81 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:36 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 29 of 71 | 40% | 36 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 21 of 37 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 20 of 42 | 47% | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 10 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 26 of 59 | 44% | 10 of 40 | 8 of 11 | 8 of 8 | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 29 of 71 | 40% | 20 of 59 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 14 of 29 | 48% | 4 of 17 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 8 of 23 | 34% | 3 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 20 of 42 | 47% | 16 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 4 | |
| 3 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 7 of 17 | 41% | 4 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira with low confidence. He questions whether Abusupiyan Magomedov is good or not, noting his weak chin and poor performances. He thinks Ferreira's only path is an early finish, but with new gloves, finishes are less reliable. He will watch the line movement for better value on Ferreira as the underdog.
Big Brady picks Magomedov, citing his size, reach advantage, and wrestling. He is concerned about Ferreira's cardio, noting he looked like he was slowing down in the first round against Dustin Stoltzfus. He believes Magomedov can mix in takedowns and finish Ferreira in the second round by submission.
Cody picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, believing his wrestling and length will be key. He notes that Ferreira has poor takedown defense and that Magomedov can neutralize his power by taking him down. Cody is not highly confident due to Magomedov's cardio issues but thinks he can grind out a win.
Connor picks Magomedov, noting that Ferreira is much smaller and his game is shallow. He compares Ferreira to a portion of Gilbert Burns' striking without the other tools. Magomedov's size and reach will allow him to control the fight, and Ferreira is not suited for fighting off his back.
Daniel Vreeland picks Magomedov, arguing that he is more technical on the feet and has a strong wrestling game. He notes that Magomedov's losses are to top middleweights like Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland, and that Ferreira's only path is a KO. Vreeland expects Magomedov to take Ferreira down repeatedly and possibly submit him.
Daniel Vreeland picks Brunno Ferreira to win by first-round knockout, citing Ferreira's devastating power and Magomedov's history of being knocked out. He acknowledges that if the fight goes to decision, Magomedov likely wins, but believes Ferreira's early finishing upside is worth the pick. Vreeland is not confident and notes the risk of Ferreira fading if he doesn't get the finish.
Jeff Fox is taking Ferreira, swayed by his recent win over Warley Alves. He believes Ferreira can land a knockout if he can keep the fight standing, though he acknowledges Magomedov's wrestling threat. Fox's pick is less confident and seems to be a contrarian choice.
Magomedov has the overall advantage with his ability to mix in grappling and his reach and length. He should counter Ferreira's blitzing approach and eventually put him away by knockout, similar to what Nurlan Ruziboev did to Toofan.
Paul picks Magomedov, citing his superior wrestling and cleaner striking. He notes that Ferreira is undersized for middleweight and has been taken down easily. Paul believes Magomedov can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and win by decision or late finish. He is not highly confident.
The Guru leans toward Brunno Ferreira, trusting his doggedness and finishing instincts in a firefight. He notes that Abusupiyan Magomedov may not have the same grit and could fade. He acknowledges both are capable of finishing each other but believes Ferreira will push when the going gets tough. The Guru also comments that Magomedov is 'too westernized' and 'soy'.
Zane picked Magomedov, noting that Ferreira has great power but the rest of his game doesn't exist. He described Magomedov's game as an inch deep and a mile wide, able to do enough to stay in a fight if his opponent can't take over in any one area. Zane pointed out that Ferreira lacks consistency and a plan, so Magomedov was able to climb back and get the win.
Zane picks Magomedov because of his significant size and reach advantage over Ferreira. He notes that Ferreira's game is shallow and he is a short, stocky power puncher with no other tools to control a fight. Magomedov can use his reach to land one-twos and takedowns, and Ferreira's only chance is an early knockout, but Magomedov has speed and size.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brunno Ferreira | 1 | 24 of 36 | 66% | 27 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 20 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 1:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunno Ferreira | 1 | 24 of 36 | 66% | 27 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 20 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 1:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brunno Ferreira | 24 of 36 | 66% | 16 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 18 of 40 | 45% | 12 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunno Ferreira | 24 of 36 | 66% | 16 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 18 of 40 | 45% | 12 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira, citing his insane power against Dustin Stoltzfus's questionable chin. He notes that all of Ferreira's wins are finishes, and Stoltzfus has been knocked out before. He thinks it's a trap fight because it seems too easy, but he is falling into the trap. He predicts Ferreira wins inside the distance.
Big Brady picks Brunno Ferreira to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Ferreira's incredible one-punch power and vicious ground and pound. He notes that Stoltzfus is hitable with 48% striking defense and that Ferreira will follow up if he hurts him. He mentions a potential live bet on Stoltzfus if he survives the first round.
Cody picks Stoltzfus as a greasy underdog, noting that Ferreira is a first-round knockout artist with questionable cardio and wild striking. Stoltzfus has decent cardio, wrestling, and BJJ, and has been competitive against tough opponents. Cody believes if Stoltzfus can survive the first round, he can take over with his grappling and pressure. He sees value in the plus money and expects Stoltzfus to win by decision or late submission.
Daniel picks Stoltzfus as a live dog, believing Ferreira is too small for middleweight and that Stoltzfus can survive the early onslaught and take over after the seven-minute mark. He notes Ferreira's all-first-round finishes but criticizes his awkward movement and lack of in-between striking. He warns that Stoltzfus stands straight up and gets hit early, but if he can drag the fight out, his grappling and experience could pay off.
Jacob picks Brunno Ferreira, agreeing with Angelo. He notes that Stoltzfus has a suspect chin and Ferreira has big power. However, he warns that if the fight gets out of the first round, Ferreira might fade. He has Ferreira in a parlay but is not betting him heavily. He plans to live bet Stoltzfus if the first round ends without a finish.
Stoltzfus has a reach and height advantage, and his straight shots down the pipe should keep Ferreira at bay. Ferreira is a power puncher with a BJJ black belt, but Stoltzfus showed improved performance against Soriano. At +220, Stoltzfus is a good underdog pick to win by decision, possibly even a late finish.
Paul sees this as a dogger pass situation. He acknowledges Ferreira's first-round knockout power but notes the lack of value on Ferreira by knockout props. He thinks Stoltzfus could win if he survives the early storm, but he's not confident enough to make a pick.
The Guru picks Ferreira to 'smoke' Stoltzfus, saying Stoltzfus isn't the same level of danger on the feet and will be more scared in the fight. He notes Ferreira has KO power and that Stoltzfus's wins aren't impressive (e.g., Dwight Grant, Punahele Soriano). He expects a KO win for Ferreira.
Armen Petrosyan - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 27 of 56 | 48% | 31 of 63 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 46 of 83 | 55% | 47 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 23 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 17 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 24 of 44 | 54% | 24 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brunno Ferreira | 27 of 56 | 48% | 14 of 40 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 25 of 53 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 46 of 83 | 55% | 19 of 54 | 7 of 7 | 20 of 22 | 46 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunno Ferreira | 13 of 25 | 52% | 6 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 11 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 22 of 39 | 56% | 6 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 13 | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brunno Ferreira | 14 of 31 | 45% | 8 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 24 of 44 | 54% | 13 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 24 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharabutdin Magomedov | 1 | 65 of 106 | 61% | 67 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 77 of 140 | 55% | 77 of 141 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharabutdin Magomedov | 0 | 33 of 49 | 67% | 35 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 46 of 81 | 56% | 46 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Sharabutdin Magomedov | 1 | 32 of 57 | 56% | 32 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 31 of 59 | 52% | 31 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharabutdin Magomedov | 65 of 106 | 61% | 24 of 53 | 29 of 34 | 12 of 19 | 63 of 104 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 77 of 140 | 55% | 22 of 66 | 10 of 14 | 45 of 60 | 75 of 138 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharabutdin Magomedov | 33 of 49 | 67% | 12 of 24 | 13 of 14 | 8 of 11 | 31 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 46 of 81 | 56% | 14 of 35 | 5 of 7 | 27 of 39 | 44 of 79 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sharabutdin Magomedov | 32 of 57 | 56% | 12 of 29 | 16 of 20 | 4 of 8 | 32 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 31 of 59 | 52% | 8 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 18 of 21 | 31 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Sharabutdin Magomedov despite being disappointed in his lack of finishes. He believes Shara is the better striker and counter-striker, and Armen's forward pressure will play into Shara's hands. However, he also sees value in betting on Armen Petrosyan at plus money via a spread bet, as Shara has not been finishing fights and Armen could win rounds.
Big Brady picks the underdog Petrosyan, calling this the closest fight on the card. He thinks Petrosyan can hang on the feet and may mix in takedowns, which could be a key factor. He notes that Petrosyan has been taken down a lot but might have improved his wrestling, similar to Roman Kopylov. He believes at worst it's a 50/50 fight and doesn't understand the odds.
Cody picks Armen Petrosyan as a slight underdog, citing Magomedov's lack of grappling and takedown defense. He notes that Petrosyan has faced strong grapplers and survived, and that he has the striking volume and power to outwork Magomedov. Cody also mentions that Petrosyan may mix in takedowns of his own. However, he is not highly confident due to potential hometown cooking for Magomedov.
Connor picks Magomedov, noting his speed and volume, though he acknowledges his takedown defense is still a work in progress. He believes Petrosyan lacks the power to hurt Magomedov and that Magomedov's boxing improvements will be enough to win a striking battle. Connor is not fully confident but sees Magomedov as the likely winner.
Daniel Vreeland picks Sharabutdin Magomedov to win, citing his movement and elusiveness as key factors against the more flat-footed Petrosyan. He acknowledges Petrosyan's striking credentials but believes Magomedov's lateral movement and ability to stay on the move will frustrate Petrosyan. Vreeland also mentions the potential for favorable judging in Abu Dhabi for a fighter with a name ending in 'ov'.
Lucrative James does not make a clear pick for this fight. He sees value on Petrosyan but is not confident enough to bet. He notes that Magomedov has a unique kicking style that could trouble Petrosyan, but Petrosyan has grappling upside and may shoot takedowns. He plans to study more tape before deciding.
Petrosyan is the technically superior striker with a cleaner, straighter style that will counter Magomedov's orthodox approach. He may mix in some grappling but his fundamental striking and clinch work should lead to a decision win.
Paul picks Petrosyan, noting that Magomedov has no wrestling and that Petrosyan has good volume and kicks. He believes Petrosyan's experience against grapplers will help him, and that he can win the striking exchanges. Paul is not confident due to potential judging bias but leans Petrosyan.
The Guru picks Sharabutdin Magomedov by decision, believing Petrosyan's rangey, point-fighting style plays into Magomedov's strengths. He notes that Petrosyan doesn't mix in grappling and will engage in a striking match where Magomedov's volume and durability should win rounds. He criticizes Magomedov's finishing ability but thinks he will outwork Petrosyan. The Guru also mentions Petrosyan's short reach as a disadvantage.
Zane also picks Magomedov, citing his speed and volume. He notes that Petrosian is not a powerful striker and that Magomedov's improved takedown defense, while still imperfect, should be enough to avoid being controlled. Zane thinks Magomedov's pace will overwhelm Petrosian.
Zane picked Magomedov, noting his elite speed and dedication to volume. He pointed out that Petrosyan is a low-power, slightly less volume kickboxer with okay but not good wrestling, which was a good matchup for Magomedov. Zane highlighted that Magomedov is getting better at MMA, improving his takedown defense, and that Petrosyan started well but got discouraged by the absurd speed and second-guessed himself.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 14 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:46 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 14 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:46 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Vieira | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 9 of 20 | 45% | 1 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodolfo Vieira | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 9 of 20 | 45% | 1 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-120), Petrosyan (+100)
Round 1
Rescheduled from November due to a fight-night scratch, this quintessential striker vs. grappler contest opens the main card, as ADCC and mundials all-star Vieira (9-2, 4-2 UFC) would like nothing more than to become the first man to tap out kickboxer Petrosyan (9-2, 3-1 UFC). No matter how it plays out, these two middleweights are primed to put on a show. Referee Mark Smith is on call to keep things on the up-and-up, and there is no bad blood between them as they even hugged it out before announcer Joe Martinez introduced them. They clap both hands together, and Petrosyan takes to the center of the cage and starts looking for a jab. It is Vieira who lands the jab first, although Petrosyan is quick to find it on his own. Petrosyan jams a low kick on the calf, and he scores a front kick and another low kick while Vieira is still watching him. They trade leg kicks, and Vieira hand-fights to prevent Petrosyan from landing a right hand. Petrosyan accepts this by turning his hips towards low kicks, and he uses a front kick like a jab. Vieira doubles up on a jab, leading Petrosyan to kicking him in the side. Vieira scoops up an easy single, and when Petrosyan scrambles, the Brazilian takes his back briefly. Petrosyan manages to get back up, only for “The Black Belt Hunter” to take him down again with a single. Vieira gets one hook around the side and allows Petrosyan to surrender position so he can fish for a choke. Petrosyan muscles his way back upright, and Vieira decides instead to lift “Superman” in the air and throw him down to the mat like a middleweight Matt Hughes. This time, Petrosyan is not so able to climb up the wall behind him, and Vieira moves to half guard while lowering his weight down for an arm-triangle choke. Vieira easily steps over to mount, and Petrosyan turns over to give up his back. Vieira lets this happen so he can get a rear-naked choke, and Petrosyan turns around to lay down flat on his back.
The Brazilian presses down with all his might and he locks down an arm-triangle choke, and it is academic at this point. With seconds to spare in the round, Petrosyan taps out twice, and he nearly goes out as Vieira releases the grip. Smith pulls them apart, and Petrosyan is incensed, perhaps not realizing that he surrendered.
Petrosyan tries to claim he did not submit to the move, but no one listens as the video plays on the big screen showing him tapping. Vieira still retains a 100% finish rate with his arm-triangle choke, and he claims the UFC record with the most submissions of this type in company history (four).
The Official Result
Rodolfo Vieira def. Armen Petrosyan R1 4:48 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo highlights Rodolfo Vieira's world-class BJJ and explosiveness, and notes his improved striking and toughness shown in the Cody Brundage fight. Armen Petrosyan is a beast on the feet with a kickboxing background but has questionable takedown defense. Angelo believes the gap on the ground is wider than on the feet, and that Vieira will get takedowns and win. He is confident and looks for prop bets.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Rodolfo Vieira to win by first-round submission. He notes that Vieira is a legit BJJ black belt with incredible grappling, while Petrosyan has terrible takedown defense (36%) and gives up his back. However, Vieira has poor cardio and if Petrosyan survives the first round, he likely knocks Vieira out. He calls it a pick 'em fight.
Cody picks Vieira, acknowledging Petrosyan is better on the feet. He thinks if Vieira can get the fight to the mat early, his BJJ is a threat. Cody notes Vieira's cardio issues but believes he can survive 15 minutes. He sees this as a close fight where Vieira's submission threat gives him the edge.
Petrosyan has shown improved takedown defense and submission defense, as seen against Gregory Rodrigues. He should be able to keep the fight standing and use his kickboxing to wear on Vieira, potentially finding a TKO in the second round. Vieira has cardio issues and is dangerous early, but Petrosyan's patience and technical discipline should allow him to survive and take over late.
Paul picks Petrosyan, citing his superior striking, cardio, and durability. He criticizes Vieira's takedown accuracy and cardio, noting he gassed against Anthony Hernandez. Petrosyan has shown good takedown defense and volume. Paul believes if Petrosyan survives the first round, he will take over and win by decision or late TKO.
The MMA Guru picks Armen Petrosyan because he believes Petrosyan has good takedown defense and a tucked-up style with short arms that makes him safer in close range. He thinks Petrosyan will chew up Vieira's legs and stuff takedowns early. He likes Petrosyan's work on the inside and expects him to get the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 89 of 156 | 57% | 111 of 179 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 0 | 59 of 122 | 48% | 73 of 136 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 37 of 66 | 56% | 37 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 0 | 27 of 51 | 52% | 27 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 36 of 62 | 58% | 46 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 25 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 | |
| 3 | Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 28 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 21 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armen Petrosyan | 89 of 156 | 57% | 37 of 90 | 15 of 22 | 37 of 44 | 77 of 139 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 3 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 59 of 122 | 48% | 23 of 72 | 8 of 16 | 28 of 34 | 58 of 121 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Armen Petrosyan | 37 of 66 | 56% | 10 of 30 | 6 of 10 | 21 of 26 | 36 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 27 of 51 | 52% | 10 of 29 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 14 | 27 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Armen Petrosyan | 36 of 62 | 58% | 19 of 42 | 8 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 26 of 50 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 2 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 20 of 43 | 46% | 6 of 24 | 2 of 6 | 12 of 13 | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Armen Petrosyan | 16 of 28 | 57% | 8 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 12 of 28 | 42% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Christian Leroy Duncan, noting his pressure and creativity. He acknowledges that Armen Petrosyan is a skilled striker with a solid chin, and if Duncan chases an early knockout and gasses, Petrosyan could take over. However, Duncan hasn't shown a gas tank issue yet. Angelo calls Duncan an affordable minus 150.
Big Brady picks Christian Leroy Duncan to win by second-round knockout. He acknowledges that Petrosyan is likely to win the minutes with higher volume, but Duncan has fight-ending power with spinning attacks and flying knees. Brady notes Petrosyan has poor takedown defense and has been knocked out before. He also mentions Duncan has shown some takedown ability and solid ground game, which could be an alternative path. He thinks the line may be a bit wide but leans to Duncan's power.
Cody takes the underdog Petrosyan, citing his elite striking volume, cardio, and leg kicks. He notes that Petrosyan's takedown defense is poor but his ability to scramble back up and maintain pace is excellent. He believes Duncan, while athletic and rangy, may not have the cardio to keep up with Petrosyan's pressure over three rounds. Cody thinks Petrosyan's leg kicks will slow Duncan's movement, and if Petrosyan can survive the first round, he will take over in the second and third. He also mentions a prop for Petrosyan by split decision at +1250.
Connor picks Duncan for similar reasons, citing his power and aggression. He notes that Petrosian is a 'Vettori type' who is difficult to look good against, but Duncan's power and ability to land crushing shots should carry him. Connor is not fully confident but leans to the powerful fighter.
Daniel Levi picks Christian Leroy Duncan, citing his athleticism, speed, and reach advantage. He notes Duncan's impressive movement in his debut and believes he can land takedowns on Petrosyan, whose takedown defense is poor. He got Duncan at -125 and thinks the line is good value. He also mentions the age disparity and Duncan entering his prime.
Petrosyan is the technically better kickboxer but Duncan's speed, explosiveness, and power will be the difference maker. Petrosyan has been knocked out by less technical strikers before. Duncan throws flying knees and spinning techniques and is likely to land a knockout blow in the first or second round.
Paul sides with Cody, noting that Petrosyan's sample size of high-volume striking in three-round fights is impressive, and until he sees more from Duncan, he leans to the underdog. He mentions that Petrosyan by decision is +250 and by split decision is +1250, which could be worth a sprinkle. He thinks the fight could be close and go to the judges.
The MMA Guru picks Christian Leroy Duncan over Armen Petrosyan, emphasizing the eight-inch reach advantage. He notes Petrosyan is a good striker but lacks dynamism, while Duncan throws wheel kicks, front kicks, and flying knees. He expects Duncan to catch Petrosyan pulling out of an exchange and win by TKO.
Zane picks Duncan because he trusts Duncan's power and comfort in the pocket. He notes that Petrosian is consistent but lacks power, and that Duncan is a more mindful pocket puncher with good vision in exchanges. Zane believes Duncan's dynamic fight-changing power will be too much for Petrosian, who has shown vulnerability to counters.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 49 of 83 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 10:09 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 31 of 61 | 50% | 72 of 132 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 14 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:24 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 8 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:26 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 27 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 41 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 12 of 25 | 48% | 4 of 15 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 31 of 61 | 50% | 2 of 19 | 3 of 9 | 26 of 33 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 12 of 29 | 41% | 1 of 12 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 14 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 6 of 12 | 50% | 1 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 18 of 30 | 60% | 1 of 7 | 2 of 5 | 15 of 18 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 15 |
Angelo picks Caio Borralho but with low confidence, noting the fight is closer than the 2-1 odds suggest. He highlights Borralho's slick grappling and takedowns, while Petrosyan is a high-volume kickboxer with questionable takedown defense. He acknowledges Petrosyan can win if he makes Borralho pay on grappling entries, as seen in his win over Gregory Rodrigues. He may switch his pick by fight week.
Big Brady confidently picks Caio Borralho, highlighting his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Petrosyan's takedown defense is non-existent and that he gives up his back frequently. Brady believes Borralho will take the fight to the mat, take Petrosyan's back, and finish via ground-and-pound or submission. He predicts a first-round finish, though he acknowledges Petrosyan has power and could win if the fight stays standing.
Cody likes Borralho's well-rounded skills and high fight IQ, but acknowledges Petrosyan's toughness and cardio. He thinks Borralho can bait Petrosyan in and get takedowns, where his grappling is superior. However, he's not highly confident because Petrosyan is a live underdog with a solid skill set.
The host bets 1 unit on Armen Petrosyan at +196. He believes Petrosyan is a solid prospect who can deal with Borralho's game. He thinks the line has moved too far in Borralho's favor due to recency bias, and that Petrosyan's defensive grappling is excellent, allowing him to get back to his feet and work on the feet. He sees a potential knockout for Petrosyan. He notes that Petrosyan's takedown defense is not great but his defensive grappling is amazing.
Paul agrees with Cody that Borralho is the pick, but he's not supremely confident. He notes that Petrosyan has been taken down multiple times in recent fights and that Borralho's path to victory is through takedowns and grappling. He mentions the over 1.5 takedowns prop on PrizePicks.
The Guru picks Caio Borralho (referred to as Carballo/Kaubour), praising his grappling and size advantage. He notes Borralho out-grappled Gadzhi Omargadzhiev easily and believes he can take down Petrosyan. He predicts a decision win, with Borralho using his reach and transitions to control the fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 127 of 231 | 54% | 128 of 232 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 61 of 133 | 45% | 61 of 133 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 1:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 41 of 72 | 56% | 41 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 18 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 35 of 75 | 46% | 36 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 24 of 51 | 47% | 24 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 3 | Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 51 of 84 | 60% | 51 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 19 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 1:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armen Petrosyan | 127 of 231 | 54% | 50 of 139 | 38 of 47 | 39 of 45 | 127 of 231 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 61 of 133 | 45% | 45 of 114 | 9 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 61 of 133 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Armen Petrosyan | 41 of 72 | 56% | 19 of 47 | 6 of 7 | 16 of 18 | 41 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 18 of 40 | 45% | 9 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 18 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Armen Petrosyan | 35 of 75 | 46% | 14 of 49 | 11 of 14 | 10 of 12 | 35 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 24 of 51 | 47% | 21 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Armen Petrosyan | 51 of 84 | 60% | 17 of 43 | 21 of 26 | 13 of 15 | 51 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 19 of 42 | 45% | 15 of 36 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by first-round submission. He notes Petrosyan's takedown defense is a huge liability and that every Petrosyan fight follows a pattern where he gets taken down early, his opponent gasses, and then he finishes. Brady believes Rodrigues has elite BJJ and can submit Petrosyan if he gets him down. However, he is hesitant because Rodrigues has been knocked out before and his gas tank is questionable if the fight goes past the first round.
Cody picks Petrosyan as an underdog, citing his striking power, leg kicks, and improved takedown defense from training in Dagestan. He notes Rodrigues' questionable chin and cardio, and believes Petrosyan can knock him out if he avoids grappling. Cody calls it a 'dog or pass' fight.
Daniel Levi picks Gregory Rodrigues to win via submission. He highlights Rodrigues' size, physicality, and black belt, and notes Petrosyan has been knocked out before. Levi warns that if Rodrigues gets cocky and stands with Petrosyan, he could get knocked out, but expects Rodrigues to take him down and submit him. He mentions Petrosyan's ability to survive bad positions and come back, but thinks Rodrigues' experience is the difference.
The host likes Petrosyan as an underdog, believing his striking is superior and that he will defend takedowns well. He expects Rodrigues to struggle to get the fight to the ground and gas out, allowing Petrosyan to find a knockout in the second or third round. He compares the matchup to Jared Cannonier vs Derek Brunson and thinks Petrosyan deserves to be the slight favorite.
Paul picks Rodrigues by submission, noting his size, strength, and BJJ black belt. He believes Rodrigues should take Petrosyan down and submit him, though he acknowledges Rodrigues' chin is a concern. Paul placed a small bet on Rodrigues by submission at +400.
The MMA Guru picks Armen Petrosyan to win by KO in the second round. He acknowledges Gregory Rodrigues' power and recent improvements in grappling but notes that Rodrigues has shown a questionable chin and gassing issues, as seen in his fight with Park and Yong. The Guru believes Petrosyan's diverse striking (head kicks, body shots) and ability to stay calm in bad positions will be key. He expects a high-paced first round with grappling from Rodrigues, followed by Petrosyan landing a KO blow in the second as Rodrigues slows down.
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