Career Averages - Amanda Lemos
Career Averages - Iasmin Lucindo
Amanda Lemos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 42 of 73 | 57% | 51 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:04 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 64 of 81 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 2 | 9:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 25 of 37 | 67% | 27 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:40 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 9 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:38 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 26 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:06 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 29 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 3:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 42 of 73 | 57% | 31 of 61 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 27 of 57 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 14 |
| Gillian Robertson | 12 of 26 | 46% | 5 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 10 | 10 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 25 of 37 | 67% | 18 of 29 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 13 |
| Gillian Robertson | 5 of 15 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 10 of 19 | 52% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Gillian Robertson | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 7 of 17 | 41% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 5 of 8 | 62% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo picks Gillian Robertson but expresses nervousness. He acknowledges Robertson's poor takedowns and atrocious striking, but believes her relentless pressure and submission threats will cause Amanda Lemos to freeze. He also notes the smaller cage helps Robertson. He points out that Lemos has good takedown defense, having defended nine takedowns from Tatiana Suarez, but still thinks Robertson's volume will win out.
Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson to win by third-round submission. He likes her move to strawweight (5-1 record) and improved wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Lemos's age (38) and 64% takedown defense, and believes Robertson can get takedowns, control top position, and eventually submit her.
Cody picks Robertson but with caution. He highlights her improved wrestling and submission game under Dean Thomas, but worries about Lemos' takedown defense and power. He notes Robertson's striking is poor and if she can't get takedowns, she's in trouble. He advises not going too heavy on her.
Connor picks Robertson, citing that Lemos will engage in grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out, and Robertson's A-game is grappling. He compares it to Lemos's loss to Tatiana Suarez, where Lemos willingly clinched.
James picks Gillian Robertson to win inside the distance via ground and pound or submission. He highlights Robertson's relentless grappling and Lemos' tendency to regrapple and make poor decisions on the ground. He notes that Lemos has a striking advantage but expects Robertson to eventually get takedowns and finish. He suggests the fight not going to decision as a potential bet.
The host picks Lemos to win by knockout, believing her power and defensive grappling will be too much for Robertson. He expects Lemos to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually finishing Robertson. He notes that Robertson's lack of striking and physicality will be exposed, and that Lemos's experience against strong grapplers gives her the edge.
Paul picks Robertson confidently, citing her recent run, coaching from Dean Thomas, and improved wrestling. He believes she will get takedowns and control the fight. He notes Lemos has low volume and can be taken down, though he acknowledges the price is steep.
The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, despite her lack of striking power, because her grappling is consistent and Lemos has been out-grappled by top opponents. He thinks Robertson will get top position early and submit her in the second round, though he acknowledges Lemos could win if she stuffs a takedown and lands a big shot.
Zane leans Robertson, noting that Lemos will likely initiate grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out immediately, which plays into Robertson's strength. He acknowledges Robertson could get nuked on the feet but thinks Lemos's tendency to wrestle will cost her.
Cody picks Robertson, citing her improved grappling and game planning. He notes Lemos's takedown defense issues and expects Robertson to take her down, control position, and win a decision. He likes the decision prop.
Connor picks Lemos, citing her athleticism and the fact that Robertson has never beaten a high-level athlete. He acknowledges Lemos's lack of development and tendency to waste time, but believes Robertson's mental block against athletic opponents will be her undoing. He notes that Lemos's recent wrestling is just a way to slow fights down, not a decisive advantage.
Lucrative James picks Gillian Robertson confidently, emphasizing her relentless grappling and ground-and-pound. He notes Amanda Lemos' takedown defense and fight IQ issues, and believes Robertson will eventually get a takedown and finish via submission or ground-and-pound. He projects Robertson as a -175 favorite.
Paul also picks Robertson, highlighting her takedown ability and improved striking. He thinks Lemos's low volume and poor takedown defense will be exploited, and expects Robertson to win a decision. He likes the decision prop.
Zane picks Robertson but is hesitant, noting that Robertson has a technical advantage and has improved, but has historically struggled against athletic opponents. He worries Robertson may give too much respect to Lemos's speed and power, leading to poor takedown attempts. He sees this as a winnable fight for Robertson if she can stay confident and execute her game plan.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 70 of 91 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 9:34 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 23 of 33 | 69% | 39 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 25 of 30 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 27 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:00 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 16 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 18 of 25 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 20 of 39 | 51% | 1 of 11 | 10 of 17 | 9 of 11 | 9 of 24 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 23 of 33 | 69% | 12 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 14 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 7 of 10 | 70% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 5 of 14 | 35% | 1 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 6 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 5 of 5 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tatiana Suarez | 8 of 15 | 53% | 0 of 4 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 13 of 22 | 59% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 |
Angelo picks Tatiana, believing her wrestling will be too hard to consistently stop. He notes she is a dominant wrestler with almost five takedowns per 15 minutes, though her striking is just okay. He acknowledges Lemos has a ton of high-level experience and power, but thinks Tatiana's relentless pressure and ability to find a submission could be key. He mentions the -400 odds are tough to lay four units on someone coming off a loss, but still picks Tatiana.
Big Brady picks Suarez despite her poor last performance against Jandiroba, noting Lemos fared even worse against the same opponent. He highlights Lemos's inability to stuff takedowns and suspect submission defense. He predicts Suarez wins by second-round submission, though he has concerns about her cardio and striking defense.
The host considers this a horrible stylistic matchup for Lemos, expecting Suarez to land takedowns, work to a dominant position, and eventually secure a submission. This is a strong pick with high confidence.
The MMA Guru picks Tatiana Suarez, believing her grappling will be decisive. He notes Lemos has been outgrappled before and her aggressive style (big power swings, guillotine attempts) will leave her open to Suarez's takedowns. He predicts a second or third round ground-and-pound TKO, possibly from crucifix position.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 30 of 42 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 7:58 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 40 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 10 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:41 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 17 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 12 of 21 | 57% | 8 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 4 of 16 | 25% | 2 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 7 of 12 | 58% | 4 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 4 of 9 | 44% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Connor picks Lemos because she is a physical force who can hit hard and is strong in the clinch. He notes that Lucindo is raw and messy, relying on speed and counters, but Lemos has excellent timing and power. Connor worries about Lemos's tendency to wrestle, which could play into Lucindo's hands, but believes Lemos's strength and durability will carry her. He sees Lucindo as too young and raw for this step up.
Lucrative James picks Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and multiple paths to victory. He notes Lemos is a better striker but has clear grappling deficiencies, having been submitted before. He thinks Lucindo can win by submission or decision through grappling control. He mentions he cashed on Lucindo by submission before and sees value in that prop.
Zane picks Lemos, agreeing that Lucindo is too raw and that Lemos's power and physicality will be too much. He notes that Lucindo's game is unstructured and she struggles to initiate, while Lemos is a fast starter with excellent timing. Zane also points out that Lucindo's wins over bigger names may be due to catching them at the right time, and Lemos is still a formidable athlete despite her age.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:51 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 20 of 27 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 4 | 1 | 6:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:26 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:42 | |
| 2 | Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 12 of 18 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 2 | 1 | 2:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virna Jandiroba | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Amanda Lemos | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virna Jandiroba | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Virna Jandiroba | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Virna Jandiroba because she will grind and get takedowns, neutralizing Amanda Lemos's striking. He notes that Lemos is the better mixed martial artist but cannot defend takedowns. He plans to wait for prop bets, especially the takedown line, and considers Jandiroba affordable at even money.
Cody picks Jandiroba, emphasizing her freakish strength, takedown ability, and durability. He notes Lemos has cardio issues and has been taken down repeatedly by lesser grapplers. He expects Jandiroba to bank rounds with top control as Lemos fades, though he admits the fight likely goes to decision and could be a weird judging outcome. He suggests live betting Jandiroba after Lemos wins early rounds.
Daniel Vreeland leans with Virna Jandiroba due to her world-class Jiu-Jitsu and unorthodox takedown entries, believing she can take down Amanda Lemos and possibly secure a submission early. He notes that Lemos has a significant power edge and could get a late knockout if Jandiroba gasses, but he trusts Jandiroba's early dominance. He also mentions that Lemos has shown vulnerability to submissions, referencing the standing arm triangle loss to Andrade.
Jandiroba is a -130 favorite. She has a smothering grappling style and excellent cardio, which should wear down Lemos in the later rounds. Lemos has power but questionable takedown defense and cardio. Jandiroba's chin has held up, and she can take Lemos down, take her back, and eventually find a submission in the third or fourth round. Lemos could finish early, but if she doesn't, Jandiroba will dominate.
Paul thinks Lemos is the better striker and can hang on the mat against Jandiroba, citing her durability in going five rounds with Zhang Weili and surviving takedowns from Mackenzie Dern. He acknowledges Jandiroba's grappling edge but believes Lemos can avoid submissions and win rounds with damage. He calls it close to a pick 'em fight but leans Lemos at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Virna Jandiroba after initially considering Lemos. He recalls Lemos' grappling being exposed by Zhang Weili, who had 16 minutes of control time. He notes Jandiroba has never been finished and had close fights with Amanda Ribas and Marina Rodriguez. He trusts the favorite Jandiroba despite not wanting her to succeed.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 1 | 41 of 80 | 51% | 47 of 86 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:02 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 50 of 85 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 2 | 6:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 19 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:45 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 1 | 24 of 51 | 47% | 27 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 11 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:30 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 20 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 41 of 80 | 51% | 26 of 62 | 8 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 24 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 22 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 21 of 54 | 38% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 11 of 23 | 47% | 4 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 8 of 22 | 36% | 8 of 20 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 24 of 51 | 47% | 17 of 42 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 17 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 8 of 24 | 33% | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 6 of 6 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
Angelo picks Amanda Lemos, citing her superior striking and takedown defense. He rants about Mackenzie Dern's poor wrestling and 14% takedown accuracy, despite her elite BJJ. He notes Lemos is coming off a bad loss but believes her takedown defense is more than enough to keep the fight standing. He calls the odds fantastic.
Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern as a dog but with very low confidence. He notes Dern's inconsistency, looking great against Angela Hill but terrible against Jessica Andrade. He thinks if Dern gets the fight to the ground, she can submit Lemos, who has been tapped before. He says he won't bet this fight and is staying far away, but as a pick he goes with Dern by submission.
Cody agrees with Paul, noting Dern's durability and BJJ threat. He mentions that Lemos could get a knockout, but Dern has shown she can take bombs. He believes Dern only needs one takedown to close the show. He picks Dern moneyline without chasing props.
Daniel Vreeland does not make a clear pick, calling it a coin flip. He notes Lemos's power and leg kick potential but is concerned about her tendency to flop to her back, as seen against Zhang. He acknowledges Dern's elite BJJ but questions her wrestling and striking. He stays away from betting on this fight.
Daniel picks Amanda Lemos hard, despite being a fan of Mackenzie Dern's grappling style. He thinks Dern won't be able to get the fight to the ground due to Lemos' strength, good boxing, and takedown defense. He also cites Dern's short notice and Lemos' reach advantage. He believes Lemos should be a -200 favorite and is all in on her.
Jeff picks Amanda Lemos, calling it a good number. He notes that Dern struggles with her wrestling and striking, and doesn't look great on the feet. He points out that Lemos just fought for the belt and has a reach advantage. He thinks Lemos should be a -200 favorite or better, so -130 is a good price.
Lemos is a dangerous power puncher who can keep Dern at bay. Dern is inconsistent and unable to complete takedowns. Expects Lemos to find a knockout in the second round.
Paul picks Dern, citing her superior Jiu-Jitsu and improved striking. He notes Lemos' low volume and 55% takedown defense, which could allow Dern to get the fight to the ground. He highlights Dern's durability and cardio, and believes she can outwork Lemos on the feet or submit her. He sees value at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Amanda Lemos, calling her a dangerous power puncher and criticizing Mackenzie Dern's striking as nonexistent. He believes Lemos will have improved her grappling defense after being dominated by Zhang Weili. He predicts a brutal TKO stoppage in round one, stating Dern has never practiced striking for MMA.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 1 | 163 of 217 | 75% | 296 of 358 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 16:07 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 24 of 63 | 38% | 29 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 44 of 55 | 80% | 74 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 49 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 31 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 4 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 28 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 13 of 37 | 35% | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 5 | Zhang Weili | 1 | 55 of 68 | 80% | 114 of 129 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 163 of 217 | 75% | 106 of 150 | 37 of 42 | 20 of 25 | 50 of 77 | 17 of 18 | 96 of 122 |
| Amanda Lemos | 24 of 63 | 38% | 19 of 57 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 44 of 55 | 80% | 36 of 47 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 41 of 52 |
| Amanda Lemos | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 16 of 20 | 80% | 10 of 13 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 8 |
| Amanda Lemos | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Zhang Weili | 20 of 29 | 68% | 11 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 6 |
| Amanda Lemos | 5 of 12 | 41% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Zhang Weili | 28 of 45 | 62% | 7 of 17 | 9 of 12 | 12 of 16 | 26 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Lemos | 13 of 37 | 35% | 11 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Zhang Weili | 55 of 68 | 80% | 42 of 54 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 44 of 56 |
| Amanda Lemos | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Zhang Weili, believing she is head and shoulders above the division. He notes her improved wrestling and jiu-jitsu, impressive volume and cardio, and power. While Amanda Lemos has knockout power and good takedown defense, he thinks Weili can win everywhere and will keep the belt. He has her in a parlay with Marlon Vera.
Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by third-round knockout, acknowledging Lemos is dangerous early. He notes Lemos has power and can finish early, but her cardio fades after the first round. Zhang is improving and can wrestle, and Brady expects her to weather the early storm and take over in the later rounds.
Cody views Zhang as a complete fighter with high-level striking, wrestling, and cardio, while Lemos has not faced top competition and struggled against Angela Hill. He expects Zhang to dominate and likely win by decision, though he acknowledges women's MMA can be unpredictable. He leans towards the fight going the distance.
Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili, believing she is one of the best athletes in the UFC and has shown tremendous improvement, especially in grappling after training with Henry Cejudo. He notes that Lemos is dangerous early with heavy hands and a guillotine, but her cardio fades after round two due to weight cuts. Levi expects Zhang to take the fight to the ground and possibly finish via submission or ground and pound. He is confident but acknowledges that the early stand-up exchanges will be a sweat for backers at -330.
Lucrative James picks Amanda Lemos as a value underdog, believing she hits like a truck and has a good chance of knocking out Zhang Weili. He acknowledges Zhang has more ways to win and better cardio, but at plus 250 he sees it as an easy system play. He advises against being greedy and sticking to the moneyline.
Zhang is well-rounded with power striking and strong wrestling. Lemos fades late and has been submitted before. Zhang will mix in takedowns and wear on Lemos, eventually finding a finish in the later rounds. The inside distance prop and under 3.5/4.5 rounds are good options.
The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili over Amanda Lemos. He notes Lemos' age (36) and past losses to Jessica Andrade and Angela Hill. He believes Zhang's athleticism, speed, power, and improved grappling will be too much. He cites Zhang's dominant grappling performances against Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Carla Esparza. He expects Zhang to win, possibly by submission or TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 44 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 43 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 22 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:06 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 19 of 52 | 36% | 6 of 26 | 3 of 8 | 10 of 18 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 29 of 53 | 54% | 16 of 36 | 10 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 48 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 9 of 29 | 31% | 1 of 9 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 15 | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 11 of 18 | 61% | 4 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 4 of 15 | 26% | 1 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 8 of 16 | 50% | 4 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 10 of 19 | 52% | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rodriguez, expecting her volume to be the difference. He notes she needs to avoid Lemos's power and stay technical, following the blueprint Angela Hill almost used. He acknowledges Lemos is dangerous with 7 stoppage wins and considers a no-action bet on Lemos by stoppage.
Big Brady cites Lemos's cardio concerns in a five-round fight, noting she has never gone past three rounds. He believes Rodriguez has improved takedown defense and better cardio, and will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts Rodriguez will finish a tired Lemos in the third or fourth round by knockout.
Cody picks Marina Rodriguez, citing her recent run as a viable title challenger, experience in five-round fights, and superior striking volume and power. He notes her takedown defense and ability to survive on the ground, as seen against MacKenzie Dern. He is not sold on Amanda Lemos, pointing to her age, lack of a big win, and close split decision against Angela Hill. He predicts Rodriguez wins by decision, but is not running to the book to bet at the current line.
Daniel Levi leans Marina Rodriguez, citing her durability and ability to pull away in later rounds (third, fourth, fifth) as Lemos fades. He notes Rodriguez's slow starts and vulnerability to takedowns, as she struggles to get up from bottom, but believes her volume and cardio advantage will overcome Lemos's early power. He mentions the line (-210) is a bit wide and does not have a bet on this fight.
The host believes Rodriguez's durability, cardio, and disciplined striking will overcome Lemos's early power. He notes Lemos fades after round one and telegraphs her shots, while Rodriguez has experience going five rounds. He predicts a late TKO (round 5) as Lemos fades, but also sees decision as likely.
Paul agrees with Cody's points but struggles with the -220 price, which implies nearly 69% win probability. He thinks 7-3 Rodriguez is reasonable but not a betting opportunity. He does not like the decision prop because he questions Lemos's cardio in five rounds, noting she has been finished or finished early in previous five-round fights. He is considering the under on total rounds, possibly getting plus money, and will wait for weigh-ins to see if Lemos has a bad weight cut. He picks Rodriguez for the show but will not attack the -220 line.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez, noting Lemos's power has been absorbed by durable opponents like Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill. He believes Rodriguez's boxing, chin, and own power will surprise Lemos. He predicts a decision win (48-47 or 49-46) as Lemos may hesitate in a five-round fight, while Rodriguez's grappling defense is a concern but not an issue if it stays standing.
Iasmin Lucindo - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 72 of 151 | 47% | 100 of 187 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 5:37 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 64 of 110 | 58% | 80 of 129 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 27 of 68 | 39% | 28 of 69 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 25 of 46 | 54% | 26 of 47 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 28 of 50 | 56% | 30 of 52 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 31 of 54 | 57% | 38 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 42 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 16 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 72 of 151 | 47% | 56 of 128 | 12 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 57 of 130 | 11 of 17 | 4 of 4 |
| Angela Hill | 64 of 110 | 58% | 42 of 84 | 19 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 52 of 92 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 27 of 68 | 39% | 19 of 57 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 58 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Angela Hill | 25 of 46 | 54% | 18 of 38 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 41 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 28 of 50 | 56% | 21 of 42 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 43 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Angela Hill | 31 of 54 | 57% | 19 of 39 | 11 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 41 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 17 of 33 | 51% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Angela Hill | 8 of 10 | 80% | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lucindo (-190); Hill (+150)
Round 1
While the previous match had an age difference of eight years, this strawweight pairing may make UFC history as Lucindo (17-6, 4-2 UFC) is just about 17 years younger than ultra-active veteran Hill (18-14, 13-14 UFC). Someone with a mind for stats and figures should look into that. Taking responsibility of the match will be referee Chris Tognoni, who witnesses the “featured fight of the night” combatants think about bumping fists but ultimately not doing it.
Lucindo gets right in Hill’s face with short check hooks. Hill does not like them and considers clinching up, only for the younger woman to turn it against her and get a body lock from behind. Lucindo leaps onto Hill’s back, dragging her down from behind. Hill works right back up, fighting the hands clasped around her waist to she can break out of the position. Lucindo leans heavily on the elder stateswoman, and Hill trips her down for a second. When Lucindo climbs back up, Hill knees her in the face. They proceed to bang it out for a short spell until Hill elbows her way out, and Hill rushes back in behind her elbow strike. Hill dives down after a single, and Lucindo stands her up and just misses on a counter elbow. Hill scores, and Lucindo counters with a big left hook that makes Hill step back.
The Brazilian connects with a body kick right before Hill’s overhand right response lands, and the latter follows her punch with a front kick to the stomach. Lucindo sits down on her big right hand, getting Hill’s attention, and she follows with two punches down the pipe when Hill offers back a low kick. Lucindo crowds Hill and clubs her with multiple hooks, laying into the veteran with a series of punches that spur Hill into a takedown shot. Lucindo bullies “Overkill” to the fence and breaks off with an elbow, and she sways to avoid two quick punches up top. Lucindo brushes the midsection with her foot when spinning with a back kick, and her subsequent back fist fails. The momentum of the Brazilian allows her to tackle Hill to the floor, and when the horn sounds, she helps Hill back to her feet.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Round 2
The ladies do not need more than a second or two to engage in the second round, with Lucindo’s power the difference maker in their exchanges. Hill takes several punches and goes wild with a spinning wheel kick, turning to flow with a back fist then gripping hold of the younger woman’s neck to tighten up a guillotine choke while standing. Lucindo gets out of it, but not before taking an elbow on the dome. Lucindo does not back down, cracking Hill with clubbing hooks and forcing Hill to reel. Lucindo lands with two of three looping punches, and Hill sneaks in a right hand back. Lucindo pops Hill in the chops with her heavier left hand, and Hill has to clinch up to slow Lucindo down. Lucindo tries to muscle her way out, and only a Hill winging elbow allows Lucindo to get free.
The two women crash together throwing hands, and they bang heads together while doing so. This does not slow them, as Hill muscles Lucindo to the wall after landing strikes. Lucindo frees herself from the grip and leans into power punches. The Brazilian plants a spinning back kick from up close to the stomach, and she goes to the spin well with an elbow that Hill sees coming. Hill flicks out a few jabs, and she overswings and finds Lucindo ducking under to grab her from behind. Hill works her way to lean against the fencing, and Lucindo hangs on kneeing her until she kicks out Hill’s leg and wrenches her to the floor. Lucindo clings to her opponent’s back until the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Round 3
The strawweights meet in the middle and throw hands, with Lucindo’s right driving Hill back out of the gate. Hill is quick to respond, but Lucindo’s fast-swinging hooks keep backing Hill off. Lucindo takes strikes on the chin and hurls back not only harder, but with more volume. Hill scoops up Lucindo’s legs suddenly to throw her to the floor, and Lucindo practically bounces off the mat to get to her feet. When Hill scores cleanly, Lucindo drills her square in the jaw and makes her take several steps back. Lucindo continues pressing forward, tackling the longtime vet to the floor and landing in side control. To remain in control, the Brazilian relocates into half guard. Hill sits up, and Lucindo elbows her in the back of the head. Hill keeps twisting in hopes of escaping,
Lucindo embraces the grind, wresting away any hopes of Hill staging a comeback. Hill tries to buck and kick off, and Lucindo puts her face on Hill’s face. Tognoni warns Lucindo for grinding her chin into Hill’s eye, which at one point in the sport’s history was legal as evidenced by Hall of Famer Mark Kerr’s past victory over Dan Bobish. Lucindo does not engage with much additional offense other than sporadic ground-and-pound to stave of Tognoni. He calls for them to do more, and Lucindo lashes out with elbows and punches as the match concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)
The Official Result
Iasmin Lucindo def. Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)
Angelo leans Iasmin Lucindo, thinking she will bully her way to a win with powerful strikes and gritty wrestling. He notes Angela Hill is a crafty veteran with good speed and volume but no power. However, Hill could win by staying on her bike and avoiding the clinch. Angelo advises not betting on this fight.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Angela Hill, acknowledging she may be regressing but believes she still has more volume on the feet and improved takedown defense. He thinks the fight will be close and could go to a split decision. He is not betting on her, as he lacks confidence.
Connor picks Angela Hill, citing her improved fight management and veteran savvy. He notes that Lucindo is aimless and struggled when faced with a fighter she had to respect (Amanda Lemos). Connor believes Hill's pressure, volume, and clinch work will be enough to win a close decision, though he acknowledges Lucindo's speed and power could swing rounds.
The host notes Lucindo struggles when she can't get takedowns, and Hill has shown defensive improvements in grappling. He believes Hill can stop takedowns or get back to her feet quickly, then use her striking advantage to outweigh Lucindo's control and win on the scorecards by landing more damage.
The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill as an upset, citing her volume striking and clinch work. He believes Lucindo can't finish Hill and that Hill's activity will win her a close decision. He notes Hill has been robbed before but expects her to get the nod this time.
Zane leans toward Lucindo, arguing that Hill cannot put the fear in Lucindo that Lemos did, allowing Lucindo to be more proactive. He notes that Lucindo is faster and more dynamic than Hill's recent opponents, and that Hill's wins over similar fighters (Sosa, Pinheiro) were close. However, he admits it could easily be a split decision and that Hill's experience is a factor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 30 of 42 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 7:58 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 40 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 10 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:41 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 17 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 12 of 21 | 57% | 8 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 4 of 16 | 25% | 2 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 7 of 12 | 58% | 4 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 4 of 9 | 44% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Connor picks Lemos because she is a physical force who can hit hard and is strong in the clinch. He notes that Lucindo is raw and messy, relying on speed and counters, but Lemos has excellent timing and power. Connor worries about Lemos's tendency to wrestle, which could play into Lucindo's hands, but believes Lemos's strength and durability will carry her. He sees Lucindo as too young and raw for this step up.
Lucrative James picks Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and multiple paths to victory. He notes Lemos is a better striker but has clear grappling deficiencies, having been submitted before. He thinks Lucindo can win by submission or decision through grappling control. He mentions he cashed on Lucindo by submission before and sees value in that prop.
Zane picks Lemos, agreeing that Lucindo is too raw and that Lemos's power and physicality will be too much. He notes that Lucindo's game is unstructured and she struggles to initiate, while Lemos is a fast starter with excellent timing. Zane also points out that Lucindo's wins over bigger names may be due to catching them at the right time, and Lemos is still a formidable athlete despite her age.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 33 of 99 | 33% | 65 of 134 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 30 of 73 | 41% | 55 of 104 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 1 | 4:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 5 of 25 | 20% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 20 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 24 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 12 of 37 | 32% | 26 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 11 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 33 of 99 | 33% | 28 of 89 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 3 | 28 of 92 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 30 of 73 | 41% | 19 of 56 | 9 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 27 of 68 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 5 of 25 | 20% | 4 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 11 of 33 | 33% | 4 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 16 of 37 | 43% | 13 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 10 of 24 | 41% | 6 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 12 of 37 | 32% | 11 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 9 of 16 | 56% | 9 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling, and pressure. He notes Marina Rodriguez has subpar takedown defense and a weak get-up game, which Lucindo can exploit. However, he is concerned about Lucindo's cardio at elevation, as she needs to grind for 15 minutes. He does not bet on this fight due to the elevation risk.
Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22 vs 37) and wrestling advantage. He notes that Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and struggles to get back up when taken down. He expects Lucindo to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges the line is a bit steep for someone unproven.
Cody picks Rodriguez as a dog, citing her experience and power. He questions Lucindo's level of competition and believes Rodriguez can keep the fight standing and land bigger shots. He expects Rodriguez to win by decision or late finish.
Connor picks Lucindo despite acknowledging her technical flaws. He notes that Rodriguez has looked shell-shocked lately and may lose confidence if Lucindo's speed and early pressure put her behind. However, he admits Lucindo is not a complex striker and Rodriguez could take over if she finds her rhythm.
Daniel Vreeland picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth and takedown ability. He notes that Marina Rodriguez has always struggled with takedown defense, even in her prime, and at 37 it will be worse. Lucindo has landed eight takedowns in her last three fights. Vreeland expects Lucindo to use her wrestling to control the fight and win a decision.
The host leans with veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez, believing she is the better striker. He thinks Lucindo does not control opponents on the mat well enough, forcing her to strike with the better striker and ultimately lose on the scorecards. He predicts Rodriguez by decision.
Paul leans toward Rodriguez, noting her experience against top competition. He thinks Lucindo is being overvalued and that Rodriguez's defensive grappling is underrated. He sees value at plus 150.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Iasmin Lucindo, despite acknowledging Lucindo's physical advantages. He believes Rodriguez has better performances against higher competition, citing wins over Michelle Waterson and a close split decision with Jessica Andrade. He notes Rodriguez's technique and composure will be key at altitude, and predicts a decision win.
Zane also picks Lucindo, citing her speed and youth as advantages. He notes that Rodriguez has struggled recently and may not recover if Lucindo builds an early lead. However, he acknowledges that Lucindo's lack of range control and technical gaps could allow Rodriguez to take over.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 42 of 111 | 37% | 47 of 119 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 83 of 136 | 61% | 91 of 144 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 5:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 25 of 36 | 69% | 31 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 26 of 61 | 42% | 26 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 38 of 72 | 52% | 38 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 9 of 32 | 28% | 13 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 22 of 30 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 42 of 111 | 37% | 17 of 73 | 15 of 22 | 10 of 16 | 40 of 108 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 83 of 136 | 61% | 53 of 100 | 23 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 57 of 105 | 13 of 18 | 13 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 7 of 18 | 38% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 25 of 36 | 69% | 18 of 28 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 17 | 9 of 12 | 7 of 7 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 26 of 61 | 42% | 9 of 38 | 11 of 13 | 6 of 10 | 26 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 38 of 72 | 52% | 23 of 53 | 13 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 37 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 9 of 32 | 28% | 4 of 22 | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 20 of 28 | 71% | 12 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 17 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 |
Angelo picks Lucindo due to her youth and grappling advantage, but warns the odds are too rich. He notes that if Lucindo can't get takedowns, she's clueless on the feet and Kowalkiewicz could run away with it. He advises caution.
Big Brady views Lucindo as a big step up in competition for Kowalkiewicz. He believes Lucindo is better everywhere, with power and takedown ability. He expects Lucindo to win a decision, controlling the fight wherever it goes.
Cody picks Lucindo, citing her youth, speed, wrestling advantage, and submission win. He notes Kowalkiewicz's recent wins are over lower-level competition and she's 38. Cody expects Lucindo to mix takedowns and win.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kowalkiewicz by decision, citing her experience, volume striking, durability, and strength of schedule. He notes that Lucindo is young and talented but has never faced someone with Kowalkiewicz's level. He mentions Kowalkiewicz's recent four-fight win streak and improved confidence. He considers the decision prop as a potential value play.
Lucindo is a 22-year-old at minus-400 odds, but stylistically she should be able to drag the fight into her realm with grappling and heavy top pressure. Kowalkiewicz has the striking advantage, but Lucindo has a great chin and ability to crash the pocket and change levels. Lucindo grinds out a decision win.
Paul picks Lucindo, emphasizing her speed, power, and wrestling. He notes Kowalkiewicz is on a four-fight win streak but against weak opposition, and her takedown defense is suspect. Paul sees Lucindo as the future and expects her to win.
The MMA Guru picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22) and power advantage over the 38-year-old Kowalkiewicz. He notes Lucindo's win over Poana Viana and her ability to inflict damage, while questioning Kowalkiewicz's recent level of competition. He believes Lucindo's physicality and aggression will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 41 of 68 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Polyana Viana | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 31 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 26 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Polyana Viana | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 17 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 15 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Polyana Viana | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 14 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:52 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 10 of 25 | 40% | 2 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Polyana Viana | 10 of 24 | 41% | 5 of 18 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 6 of 12 | 50% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Polyana Viana | 6 of 12 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 4 of 13 | 30% | 0 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Polyana Viana | 4 of 12 | 33% | 2 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lucindo (-198), Viana (+164)
Round 1
Multiple fighters on this billing celebrate 100% finish rates, and Brazilian Viana (13-5, 4-4 UFC) is one of them. In fact, she has landed 12 of her 13 victories in the first round, with her latest a minute and change into Round 2. This likely means that youthful countrywoman Lucindo (14-5, 1-1 UFC) will need to be on her guard and not fall into any early traps if she hopes to put herself on a win streak. Standing by will be referee Chris Tognoni, and the bout opens up as the strawweight clap hands. Viana leads off with a kick that whizzes past the target, and Lucindo counters with a clubbing left hand that staggers Viana briefly. Viana gathers her thoughts and whips down a leg kick, and she partially checks one that eventually comes back her way. Viana scores a low kick and a punch, and she decks Lucindo in the face with her shin. Lucindo tries to punch back, and Viana closes in and grabs hold of her. Viana looks for a takedown, and she slugs Lucindo in the face a few times before dragging her down to the mat violently. Lucindo closes up her guard to try to stall things out, and Viana stays heavily pressed to her to keep her otherwise grounded. Tognoni asks for Viana to do more than sit there, and Viana does not improve her position or attack with anything else. Tognoni once again tells Viana to do something, and Lucindo is clinging tightly to shut down anything. Tognoni stands them up, and Viana helps her opponent to her feet and then offers a glove touch. Lucindo spins with a back kick that grazes off the side, and she misses with a back fist and ends up getting her leg grabbed in the air. Viana looks for a level change, but it is Lucindo who ends up tripping her up and throwing “Dama de Ferro” down to the mat. Viana hits her back and ignores light, frustrating punches bopping her on the side of the head. Viana turns to her side to potentially escape, and Tognoni now asks Lucindo to work. Lucindo postures up with a few hammerfists, and Viana kicks her off right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Round 2
The strawweight bump fists together to start off the second stanza, and after a lull, Lucindo springs into action with a head kick and spinning back kick. Lucindo strings together a right and a left, and she hurts Viana. “Dama de Ferro” bounces off the cage wall and shakes out any cobwebs, and Lucindo does not give her chase or pressure her one iota. Instead, Lucindo lets Viana back in the fight, as she slowly works her way forward and tosses out a blocked overhand right. Lucindo spins with a kick that ricochets off the guard, and she tries to boot the ribs only to have that blocked as well. Lucindo drills Viana with a fierce overhand right, and Viana wobbles but does not fall down. Lucindo does not follow it with anything, allowing Viana to shake it off and spin at her with a back fist and keep turning into a body kick. Lucindo meets her in the middle and tackles her to the ground, where she plops on top in half guard. Lucindo smothers and grinds without the occasional short punch. Viana has no offense of her own, prompting Tognoni to tell Lucindo to do something.
Lucindo looks to pass over to three-quarter mount, and she suddenly attacks with an arm-triangle choke. Jumping straight over to the side, the submission is complete and Viana has nothing left to offer. One single tap comes from Viana, and Tognoni recognizes it and pulls the two apart.
For the first time since 2019, Lucindo forced an opponent to tap out, doing so over a woman in Viana that typically is the one submitting others.
The Official Result
Iasmin Lucindo def. Polyana Viana R2 3:42 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Lucindo, trusting her takedown ability and top pressure. He notes Viana is a BJJ threat but Lucindo's defense should hold up. He expects a decision win.
Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo to win by decision, but hates the pick. He notes Lucindo's striking advantage and ability to win minutes, but fears Viana's submission threat, especially the armbar from guard. He says there are two outcomes: Lucindo by decision or Viana by submission. He chooses Lucindo because she has more paths to victory, but will not bet the fight.
Cody picks Lucindo, praising her scrappy style, speed, cardio, and volume. He criticizes Viana's inconsistency and inability to get takedowns against good competition. He thinks Lucindo's strength will prevent takedowns and that she will outwork Viana on the feet. He acknowledges the risk in women's MMA but is confident Lucindo gets the job done.
James picks Lucindo, believing she is a good fighter with strong ground skills. He thinks Lucindo's jiu-jitsu is better than Viana's and that she can even submit Viana. He notes Viana's only path to victory is on the ground, but Lucindo is likely better there. James sees value on Lucindo at the current odds, thinking she should be a bigger favorite.
Lucindo is young but has good training partners and experience. Viana is an aggressive BJJ black belt who finishes early or fades. Lucindo should be able to use Viana's recklessness against her with takedowns and forward pressure to win a decision. It's a close fight, and a value shot on Viana is not bad, but Lucindo is cleaner.
Paul picks Viana by submission or inside the distance, citing the armbar from guard as a real threat. He thinks Lucindo might be hesitant to take Viana down due to her submission skills, and if the fight goes to the ground, Viana has a clear advantage. However, he admits he's not confident and may not bet it, as he understands Cody's points about Lucindo's volume and strength.
The MMA Guru initially considered Polyana Viana but switched to Iasmin Lucindo, noting Lucindo's better competition and ability to go three rounds. He mentions Lucindo's wins over Brogan Walker and Yasmine Uruguay, and her experience against Sarah Frota. He believes most people are picking Viana incorrectly and that Lucindo will win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 53 of 118 | 44% | 57 of 123 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Brogan Walker | 0 | 29 of 145 | 20% | 31 of 149 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brogan Walker | 0 | 8 of 50 | 16% | 8 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 15 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Brogan Walker | 0 | 12 of 42 | 28% | 14 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 25 of 46 | 54% | 25 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Brogan Walker | 0 | 9 of 53 | 16% | 9 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 53 of 118 | 44% | 33 of 93 | 19 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 51 of 115 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Brogan Walker | 29 of 145 | 20% | 6 of 99 | 13 of 22 | 10 of 24 | 22 of 137 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 17 of 43 | 39% | 13 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brogan Walker | 8 of 50 | 16% | 1 of 33 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 11 | 7 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 11 of 29 | 37% | 7 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Brogan Walker | 12 of 42 | 28% | 2 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 8 | 8 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 25 of 46 | 54% | 13 of 32 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brogan Walker | 9 of 53 | 16% | 3 of 39 | 4 of 9 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 51 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Iasmin Lucindo confidently, based on his notes from Brogan Walker's last fight where she showed awful takedown defense. He believes Lucindo will get takedowns and dominate on the ground, similar to what Juliana Miller did. He notes Lucindo struggled in her last fight but that was a tougher matchup. He is waiting for props to drop, possibly betting on under 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo to win by second-round TKO. He notes that Lucindo is a 21-year-old prospect with good grappling and ground-and-pound, and that Brogan Walker showed zero takedown defense in her last fight against Juliana Miller, who dominated her. Brady expects Lucindo to take Walker down, beat her up, and finish her on top. He has a bad feeling because of the young age and big favorite status, but still picks Lucindo.
Cody picks Lucindo despite the high price, using logic over the 'Pac-Man theory' of backing big underdogs. He notes Lucindo is young (20), fast, strong, and aggressive, with a cast-iron chin. He criticizes Brogan Walker as slow and flat-footed, with poor defense. Cody believes Lucindo will land power shots and possibly get a second-round stoppage. However, he admits he won't bet this fight.
Connor picks Brogan Walker (referred to as 'cash aware' in transcript), reasoning that she is a disciplined puncher who has improved her striking. He notes that Lucindo (Silva) has good submissions off her back but rarely initiates takedowns, and that Walker's pressure will likely put Lucindo on the mat. Connor trusts Walker to land the punch that hurts Lucindo over a Hail Mary submission.
Connor picks Lucindo, emphasizing that Walker's fight against Miller showed she is unwilling to engage in striking and has poor balance. He notes that Lucindo is aggressive, hits hard, and makes adjustments, as seen in her fight against a tough opponent. He also points out that Walker's only path is a takedown and grind, but she lacks the coordination to do so.
Lucindo is a grapple-heavy fighter with good top control and pressure. She trains with Virna Jandiroba, which should help her grappling. Brogan Walker has shown inconsistent takedown defense and can be overwhelmed by forward pressure. However, Lucindo is young and inexperienced at the UFC level, and Walker has a win over Miranda Maverick, showing she can pull off upsets. Lucindo should return to her grappling and grind out a decision, but it's a risky spot with low confidence.
Paul also picks Lucindo, impressed by her performance against Yazmin Jauregui despite the loss. He sees her as a top prospect with a bright future. He notes she proved she belongs at this level and has a lot of potential. Paul also says he won't bet this fight.
The MMA Guru picks Iasmin Lucindo, aided by a coin flip. He notes Brogan Walker's loss to Juliana Miller and age, while Lucindo had a good performance against Yasmine Urigui and a long win streak. He thinks Lucindo's technique is solid and that this should be a lock. He predicts a win for Lucindo.
Zane picks Iasmin Lucindo (Silva), arguing that she has a clear grappling advantage and that it would be foolish for her not to try takedowns. He refuses to consider that she wouldn't attempt takedowns against Walker, who is a terrible grappler. Zane believes Lucindo's submissions off her back are a threat, and that Walker's lack of grappling knowledge will be exploited.
Zane picks Lucindo confidently, noting that she is much more technical, fluid, and combination-savvy than Walker. He points out that Walker struggled against Juliana Miller, who is less skilled than Lucindo, and that Walker's inability to throw more than one strike without getting off balance will be exploited. He also mentions Lucindo's speed and power.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yazmin Jauregui | 0 | 86 of 218 | 39% | 87 of 219 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 66 of 181 | 36% | 66 of 181 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yazmin Jauregui | 0 | 31 of 77 | 40% | 31 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 25 of 60 | 41% | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Yazmin Jauregui | 0 | 30 of 69 | 43% | 31 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 23 of 59 | 38% | 23 of 59 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 3 | Yazmin Jauregui | 0 | 25 of 72 | 34% | 25 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 18 of 62 | 29% | 18 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yazmin Jauregui | 86 of 218 | 39% | 52 of 159 | 9 of 25 | 25 of 34 | 81 of 210 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 66 of 181 | 36% | 42 of 148 | 15 of 22 | 9 of 11 | 64 of 179 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yazmin Jauregui | 31 of 77 | 40% | 16 of 55 | 2 of 4 | 13 of 18 | 29 of 72 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 25 of 60 | 41% | 15 of 49 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 23 of 58 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Yazmin Jauregui | 30 of 69 | 43% | 17 of 48 | 5 of 11 | 8 of 10 | 27 of 66 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 23 of 59 | 38% | 17 of 50 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 23 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Yazmin Jauregui | 25 of 72 | 34% | 19 of 56 | 2 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 25 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Iasmin Lucindo | 18 of 62 | 29% | 10 of 49 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 18 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo loves Yazmin Jauregui, citing her powerful striking, combinations, and solid takedown defense. He thinks the -240 odds are correct but is hesitant to bet due to both making their UFC debut. He expects the line to move and recommends jumping on it early.
Big Brady picks Yazmin Jauregui to win by first-round knockout. He describes Jauregui as a savage who comes forward, eats punches to land her own, and has power. He thinks Lucindo is not quite ready for the UFC level and that Jauregui's takedown defense and grappling will hold up. He expects Jauregui to overwhelm Lucindo and finish her in the first round.
Cody also leans toward Jauregui, calling her the right favorite but not wanting heavy investment. He notes Lucindo is very green and relies on getting the fight to the ground, while Jauregui has better striking and takedown defense. He considers this a pass due to the uncertainty.
Daniel Levi is unsure about this fight. He notes that Jauregui has a clear edge on the feet with power and aggression, while Lucindo has a grappling advantage. He says if the fight stays standing, Jauregui wins; if it goes to the mat, Lucindo wins. He picks Lucindo as a dog but with low confidence.
The host picks Jauregui, noting she has solid power and good volume. He thinks she will eventually get the finish, and suggests playing her KO straight up at +250 or first round KO at +700. He believes Lucindo is a short-notice replacement but has experience, though he doesn't think it's a good matchup for her.
Paul leans toward Jauregui, noting she is more well-rounded with good striking and footwork. He acknowledges Lucindo's wrestling and top game but thinks Jauregui can keep the fight standing and piece her up. However, he is not confident due to the low level of competition and both fighters being young and making debuts.
The host picks Yazmin Jauregui, citing her undefeated record and improvement against better competition. He notes she had more time to prepare for the fight and has momentum from a tournament win. However, he admits uncertainty about both fighters and wouldn't be surprised by an upset.
Expert Picks (3)
Connor picks Lemos because she is a physical force who can hit hard and is strong in the clinch. He notes that Lucindo is raw and messy, relying on speed and counters, but Lemos has excellent timing and power. Connor worries about Lemos's tendency to wrestle, which could play into Lucindo's hands, but believes Lemos's strength and durability will carry her. He sees Lucindo as too young and raw for this step up.
Lucrative James picks Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and multiple paths to victory. He notes Lemos is a better striker but has clear grappling deficiencies, having been submitted before. He thinks Lucindo can win by submission or decision through grappling control. He mentions he cashed on Lucindo by submission before and sees value in that prop.
Zane picks Lemos, agreeing that Lucindo is too raw and that Lemos's power and physicality will be too much. He notes that Lucindo's game is unstructured and she struggles to initiate, while Lemos is a fast starter with excellent timing. Zane also points out that Lucindo's wins over bigger names may be due to catching them at the right time, and Lemos is still a formidable athlete despite her age.
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