Career Averages - Alex Pereira
Career Averages - Magomed Ankalaev
Alex Pereira - Fight History
AJ leans towards Pereira, noting that Pereira's leg kicks will slow Gane's lateral movement and his punch power is a huge difference maker. He acknowledges the odds are essentially even and that Gane could win, but favors Pereira.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 28 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 28 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Pereira | 28 of 45 | 62% | 21 of 35 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Pereira | 28 of 45 | 62% | 21 of 35 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 33 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, believing the rematch will be similar to the first fight. He argues that Alex Pereira's narrative about trusting his takedown defense and letting his hands go is flawed because Ankalaev almost knocked him out in the first fight. He also notes that defending takedowns is easier when that's all you focus on, and that Ankalaev now knows he can handle Pereira's power. He expects Ankalaev to win more dominantly.
Big Brady is concerned about Pereira's age (38), potential lack of focus due to newfound wealth and lifestyle, and recent performances. He believes Ankalaev is hungrier and more dedicated. He notes that Ankalaev almost finished Pereira in the second round of their first fight and that Pereira has been hurt multiple times. He predicts Ankalaev wins by third-round knockout.
Connor picks Ankalaev, agreeing with Zane that Pereira's age and the way Ankalaev pressured him in the first fight are key factors. He emphasizes that Ankalaev's ability to make clutch decisions and prevent big swings, combined with Pereira's declining willingness to take risks, makes Ankalaev the likely winner. Connor also notes that Pereira's back-foot game is not strong enough to counter Ankalaev's pressure.
The host expects a more violent and aggressive Pereira, which could work for or against him. He likes the under 3.5 rounds and believes Ankalaev will catch a reckless Pereira and knock him out, replicating the previous fight's success.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev, believing his wrestling, boxing, and mental focus will be key. He notes Pereira's difficulty with southpaws and the likelihood that Ankalaev improves his takedown efficiency. He predicts a finish in the championship rounds.
Zane picks Ankalaev because he believes Pereira's age and stylistic progression have made him more cautious and less willing to pull the trigger. He notes that Ankalaev is adept at steering fights and maintaining a narrow lead, and that Pereira struggled to create offense when pressured in their first fight. Zane also mentions that Ankalaev has never been knocked out and has a good chin, though he acknowledges Pereira's power is always a threat.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 76 of 137 | 55% | 97 of 159 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 94 of 180 | 52% | 127 of 224 | 0 of 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 5:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 12 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 21 of 34 | 61% | 21 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 4 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 23 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 19 of 24 | 79% | 45 of 61 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 | |
| 5 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 15 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 76 of 137 | 55% | 11 of 57 | 17 of 25 | 48 of 55 | 69 of 130 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 94 of 180 | 52% | 36 of 112 | 30 of 39 | 28 of 29 | 75 of 159 | 19 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 16 of 34 | 47% | 0 of 11 | 2 of 5 | 14 of 18 | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 9 of 27 | 33% | 1 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 18 of 36 | 50% | 3 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 10 of 13 | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 29 of 53 | 54% | 18 of 40 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 21 of 34 | 61% | 4 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 15 | 20 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 17 of 40 | 42% | 5 of 26 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alex Pereira | 7 of 12 | 58% | 0 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 19 of 24 | 79% | 7 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 11 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alex Pereira | 14 of 21 | 66% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 20 of 36 | 55% | 5 of 17 | 6 of 10 | 9 of 9 | 14 of 30 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ankalaev (-258), Pereira (+210)
Round 1
In March, Ankalaev (20-1-1, 1 NC; 12-1-1, 1 NC UFC) claimed the throne most expected he would sit atop by outworking Pereira (12-3, 9-2 UFC). After about seven months to prepare for the second engagement, the light heavyweight champs run it back, this time with “Poatan” as the challenger. Violence is expected to be the currency of the main event, and referee Herb Dean will be its banker. The two players are all in, and despite a bit of bad blood blossoming, they do bump their sizeable fists together. Time to spin the wheel.
Pereira rushes right out of his corner to hurl a one-two at the champion, and Ankalaev backs off and pushes off three front kicks to the chest. Pereira marches Ankalaev down, keeping him against the wall as he slaps a kick off the front leg. Ankalaev gains a little space from a swatting combination, and a second misses the mark when Pereira parries. The Brazilian works the other front leg after Ankalaev switches stances, and he clubs Ankalaev with a massive right hand. Ankalaev shoots desperately, his bell rung, and Pereira bowls him over and pounces on top of him. Pereira starts laying into Ankalaev with punches and elbows, and he jackhammers the Russian with devastating 12-to-6 elbows. Dean is paying close attention but observes Ankalaev blocking the majority of the blows so he sits back. Pereira is not about to slow down, knowing that Ankalaev is at least rocked or at best in grave danger. The fired-up “Poatan” batters and brutalizes the sitting champ, crushing him with elbows to the body and finalizing his journey with one last barrage of downward elbows. Dean steps in, and Pereira motions with both hands to the downed Ankalaev like he did in a past triumph, the “chama” version of “you see what happens, Larry!” Pereira goes to embrace his corner, and he checks on his toes that might have sustained some damage in the roughly 80 seconds of demolition.
The crowd goes wild, clearly having picked a side in this dispute and it was not the Russian. “Poatan” has the belt draped around his waist by matchmaker Mick Maynard and not UFC chief Dana White, and he puts his hand to his ear to drink in Bruce Buffer’s victory announcement. “Vengeance is never a good thing,” Pereira admits, even as he exacts revenge on a man that beat him earlier this year. He has handed Ankalaev his first defeat via strikes, and he declares that he was not surprised, mister falcons. Rather than call out former two-division champ Jon Jones, Pereira asks if the audience can give Arthur Jones, recently deceased brother of Jon Jones, a moment of silence. The entire T-Mobile Arena silences itself in an instant, giving Jones’ family and loved ones the respect they deserve. Just like that, the Ankalaev era is over, and Pereira already has a few challengers lined up in the form of Carlos Ulberg and possibly Jiri Prochazka—although the latter has already lost twice to him. The party begins, with Pereira and his crew at Teixeira MMA & Fitness dancing in the Octagon to celebrate the spectacular triumph. When Pereira defends his new belt, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Magomed Ankalaev R1 1:20 via TKO (Punches and Elbows)
Connor picks Pereira because he trusts Pereira's durability and defensive instincts, and believes Pereira's pressure and willingness to punch in the pocket will force Ankalaev out of his comfort zone. He notes that Ankalaev has a history of complacency and inconsistency, and that Pereira's jab and combination punching are poison for counter punchers like Ankalaev. Connor acknowledges that Ankalaev has the tools to win but is not trustworthy.
Lucrative James believes Ankalaev's wrestling advantage is the key factor. He notes that Ankalaev has been wrestling since childhood, while Pereira's grappling is a clear weakness. He argues that if Ankalaev uses his wrestling consistently, he will dominate from top position and win the fight. He also mentions that Pereira's hype has driven the line to a pick'em, but he sees Ankalaev as the rightful favorite. He acknowledges Pereira's elite striking and power, but thinks Ankalaev's low-paced kickboxing style minimizes danger and allows him to set up takedowns.
Zane picks Ankalaev despite his inconsistency, believing that the threat of Pereira's power will force Ankalaev to take risks and finally put together a complete performance. He notes that Ankalaev has the technical ability to trouble Pereira, especially with his southpaw right hook and counter punching, and that he has historically risen to the occasion when pressured. However, Zane admits it's a feast-or-famine pick and that Pereira is the smarter choice.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 1 | 127 of 209 | 60% | 129 of 211 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 61 of 191 | 31% | 62 of 193 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 10 of 42 | 23% | 10 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 18 of 41 | 43% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 11 of 42 | 26% | 11 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 31 of 49 | 63% | 31 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 25 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alex Pereira | 1 | 63 of 92 | 68% | 65 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 15 of 53 | 28% | 16 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 127 of 209 | 60% | 92 of 167 | 17 of 20 | 18 of 22 | 123 of 205 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 61 of 191 | 31% | 34 of 155 | 16 of 23 | 11 of 13 | 60 of 189 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 15 of 27 | 55% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 10 of 42 | 23% | 8 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 18 of 41 | 43% | 11 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 11 of 42 | 26% | 10 of 38 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 31 of 49 | 63% | 22 of 39 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 30 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 25 of 54 | 46% | 7 of 32 | 12 of 15 | 6 of 7 | 25 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alex Pereira | 63 of 92 | 68% | 52 of 80 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 60 of 89 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 15 of 53 | 28% | 9 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-535), Rountree (+400)
Round 1
Possibly not the fight that fans wanted, the UFC has put Pereira (11-2, 8-1 UFC) in another headlining spot as he plans on defending his light heavyweight throne for the third time this year. While Rountree (13-5, 1 NC; 9-5, 1 NC UFC) has won five in a row, with four of those by knockout, he did recently fail a post-fight drug test and was still elevated to a championship opportunity. “Poatan” does not care, as he seeks to crush, maim and destroy any challenger standing before him. Referee Marc Goddard dons his proverbial hard hat and hopes to stay away from any errant blows, although he is relieved when the strikers come together and respectfully tap their gloves together to demonstrate sportsmanship. It’s on with the show. Pereira lashes out with a front kick to introduce himself, and it brushes past Rountree’s face as he grabs hold of it and hurls Pereira down to a knee. Rountree lets him up and backs off, and he lunges in with a right hand but pulls back when he is out of range. Pereira goes high with a kick that is blocked, and he parries a left hook. Rountree reaches the target with a left hand, and he sticks the champ with a one-two. Rountree again lands a long left hand, and Pereira smacks him with a front-leg calf kick. Rountree shuts up chants of “Chama” by launching strikes at his opponent, catching the favorite before he can block them. Pereira counters a strike with a right hand down the pipe, and Rountree is no worse for wear and throws back with a left. Pereira hacks at the front leg, keeping his hands up to block jabs or power strikes. When Pereira kicks high, Rountree charges through them but does not quite have his range nailed down. Pereira backs him up against the wall, but Rountree escapes before absorbing anything. They both land single shots, and Pereira smacks him upside the head with a kick. The calf kick that follows is more effective for the champ, and he hand-fights jabs but gets caught with a lunging left hand. Rountree gets to him with another left, and he dances away from a head kick and a leg kick that follows. Rountree misses a left hand by an inch, and he blocks a high kick and tries to sweep the leg. Rountree gets a right hand in on the champion, and Pereira jabs him back away. Rountree blitzes forward with three punches, and Pereira darts away but still eats one or two. Pereira comes out firing, and Rountree ducks away to get out of harm’s way. Rountree wings a right hand over the top, and a leg kick irritates him in response. Rountree takes two strong jabs and steels himself to loose a right hand, and he circles away as the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rountree
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rountree
Round 2
Pereira is eager to get going again, and Goddard has to back him up before clocking them in again. Rountree gives him back a few blitzes to think about, but none of them land cleanly. Pereira kicks low and then high, and Rountree comes up hitting air on the counter. Rountree counters a body kick with a right hand, and he swats out a pair of hooks that make Pereira back off but for a moment. “Poatan” clips the challenger with a right hand, and he gets in a left hook to further wobble Rountree’s knees. Rountree gathers his thoughts and struggles with a low kick, and the punches split open the bridge of his nose. Pereira goes after another calf kick but is shy of his intended target, and his jab further bloodies the nose. Pereira jabs the body with his toes extended, and he lowers his hands to encourage Rountree to come at him. Rountree checks a kick and jabs to the body, but Pereira is walking him down fearlessly. The Brazilian jabs his way into a strike, and Rountree clips him behind the ear but absorbs a hard calf kick. They trade jabs in their alternating stances, and Rountree comes up short with his big left hook. Rountree again tries to connect with a right hook, and Pereira lashes out with a head kick. Rountree sees it coming, allows Pereira to plant and bashes him in the face with a right hand. Pereira drops to a knee and is staggered, his bell rung, and he stands to spin around and shake it off in a hurry. Pereira recovers quickly, as he is right in front of the challenger plugging him with jab after jab. Three punches from Rountree manage to get through, and the crowd starts to get behind him as they chant “USA.” Pereira tosses out a right hand, and he gets drilled with a head kick as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rountree
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rountree
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Round 3
“Poatan” crowds the challenger the second Goddard clocks them in, moving forward with purpose. He does not throw more than a single jab early, until he goes after a right hand and gets his head snapped back from a powerful left hook from “The War Horse.” Rountree lands cleanly to the body, and Pereira has to take a moment to reset as he reacts strangely to the blow while bounding off the fence. Rountree wings a right hand to the body, and he brushes another few punches off the champ’s face. Rountree keeps his hands busy, and a left to the body finds the sternum flush. Rountree goes there again when avoiding a single right hand, and they both tag one another with hard hooks. When Pereira gets in two jabs, Rountree answers with two hooks and a body shot. Pereira has a low kick checked, but two more find their home as Rountree thinks about changing stances as a limp slowly develops. When Rountree comes out swinging, Pereira intercepts with a front leg, and it nearly gives way beneath him. Rountree ducks a head kick and tags the champ with a left hook, and he goes after an inside leg kick to pay “Poatan” back for his investment in leg strikes. Rountree lands to the head and goes to the body, and he backs away. Rountree’s head kick is blocked, and Pereira tosses one back that is similarly rebounded off the guard. Rountree swipes out with a right hand, and he reaches the champ with a left as Pereira backs away. Pereira kicks him in the ribs and then steps in with a knee, and his jab snaps the head back. Rountree reacts poorly from absorbing the strikes, giving Pereira confidence. The Brazilian strides after him, finding jab after jab further damaging the nose of the challenger. They trade low kicks, and Pereira splits the guard with two punches and a knee before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Round 4
When the championship rounds hit, Pereira is quick to attack the front leg to further invest in disabling it. Rountree gives him a few kicks back to think about, and they trade front kicks as “Poatan” nods at him. It is the Brazilian’s kicks that are breaking through the defenses, and they open up strikes over the top as a jab from Pereira stings the challenger. Strikes from Pereira are starting to have additional, compounding impact on Rountree’s mug, and swelling is growing under Rountree’s right eye. Rountree tries to pay him back, but Pereira is in his stride, tagging Rountree with a flurry of fists. When Rountree starts to flag, Pereira pours it on, and this only excites Rountree. He might be hurt and bloodying up fast, but he is swinging for the fences and Pereira is not backing down. The eyebrow of Rountree is ripped wide open and hanging over Rountree’s eye, and Pereira is a man possessed. “Poatan” marches down the challenger, clubbing him with punishing strikes, picking them to the head and body and knocking Rountree around the cage. Rountree’s volume falls off a cliff, and his strikes are labored as he is low on energy. Pereira tags Rountree, and Rountree gathers every bit of energy left in him and throws back with the worst of intentions. Pereira walks him down like a Terminator, laying into him with ruthless punches and a few knees for good measure. Rountree unloads with hook after hook in hopes of keeping Pereira at bay, but Pereira is a man on a mission and knows the finish is around the corner. Rountree bounces weakly off the cage wall, and Pereira switches up his head shots to a few to the body while blood sprays everywhere. Seeing Rountree’s guard is wide open, “Poatan” splits it with a merciless uppercut and nearly dislodges the mouthpiece. Roasting Rountree’s ribs with a ruthless right and a mighty left, “The War Horse” folds like wet cardboard box. The spirit is willing but the flesh is bloody and wounded, and Rountree falls to a knee and is done. Goddard knows he needs to get involved before any further punishment is inflicted, and he waves things off to save Rountree from his impossible toughness. Pereira has done it, outlasting an extremely dangerous challenger that took the first two rounds. Pulling off the outstanding feat of three defenses in a calendar year, Pereira is entering rarified air as he adds to his legendary status. With options in several divisions, “Poatan” suggests that he will stay away from middleweight for the time being, hints about a possible heavyweight move and ultimately notes that he is happy as a light heavyweight. With the crowd in the palm of his hand, the Brazilian gets the thousands in attendance chanting his catchphrase of “Chama.” No matter who he fights next, we will be here it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Khalil Rountree R4 4:32 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Alex Pereira to win, citing his power, size, and reach advantage. He acknowledges Khalil Rountree is the most dangerous striker Pereira has faced, with lightning speed and power, but believes Pereira's kickboxing pedigree and preparation at elevation will prevail. He notes the line is juiced at -550 and does not recommend a bet at those odds, but is confident in the win. He also expresses a dream scenario of Pereira moving up to heavyweight.
Big Brady picks Alex Pereira to win by second-round knockout, noting that Rountree has said he won't wrestle and will strike. He believes Pereira is the better striker and has been dominant in title defenses. He acknowledges Rountree hits hard and Pereira has been knocked out before, but still favors Pereira strongly.
Cody picks Pereira because of his superior striking credentials, length, and technique. He notes that Rountree has a puncher's chance but lacks wrestling, and Pereira's path to victory is clear. He also mentions that Pereira could mix in takedowns but expects a standup fight.
Connor also picks Pereira, agreeing with Zane's assessment. He emphasizes that Rountree's best chance is a counter right hook from southpaw, but Pereira is defensively aware and can lure Rountree into coming forward. Connor notes that Pereira's low kicks and jab will force Rountree to change his approach, and that Rountree's clinch is powerful but Pereira is the bigger clinch fighter.
Daniel Vreeland believes Alex Pereira's left hook and calf kicks will be too much for Khalil Rountree Jr. He notes that Rountree swings wide and wild, leaving openings for Pereira's counter left hook. Vreeland also points out Pereira's black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and his takedown against Adesanya as advantages. He acknowledges Rountree's power but thinks Pereira's experience against top competition will prevail.
Daniel Vreeland picks Alex Pereira. He notes that Pereira is a kickboxing champion who has beaten elite competition. He believes Rountree cannot out-technique Pereira and that his only path to victory is a power shot landing. Vreeland thinks Pereira will pick Rountree apart and likely finish him early, suggesting the under 1.5 rounds at +140 is a good bet.
Jeff Fox picks Alex Pereira. He notes that this is a good style matchup for Pereira, as Rountree has no way to make it a grappling fight. Fox believes Pereira will win a kickboxing fight and likely knock Rountree out. He appreciates that Pereira takes any fight and finishes opponents.
The host thinks the line is a bit wide considering the fight takes place in the striking realm and Rountree has knockout power. However, he leans with Pereira's technical advantages, expecting him to keep the fight at distance and counter effectively, eventually landing a big shot (likely his left hook) to finish Rountree within two rounds.
Paul picks Pereira, acknowledging Rountree's power and improvements but emphasizing Pereira's elite striking and the fact that Rountree has never attempted a takedown in the UFC. He believes Pereira's experience and technique will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira to KO Khalil Rountree Jr. in the first round. He dismisses Rountree's hype, noting his close fight with Anthony Smith and robbery win over Jacoby. He believes Pereira's composure, low kicks, and body work will be too much, and that Rountree will get caught with a left hook. He also mentions Pereira's recent injury revelation but still expects a dominant win.
Zane picks Pereira confidently, citing Pereira's ability to chew up Rountree with low kicks from long range and work his jab. He notes that Rountree's counter-punching is passive and subtractive, relying on waiting for a big mistake rather than forcing opportunities. Zane also points out that Rountree struggles under pressure and that Pereira's size and clinch work will be problematic for Rountree.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 2 | 38 of 50 | 76% | 49 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jiří Procházka | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 1 | 27 of 37 | 72% | 38 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jiří Procházka | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:11 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 1 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jiří Procházka | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 38 of 50 | 76% | 21 of 32 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 9 | 21 of 31 | 7 of 7 | 10 of 12 |
| Jiří Procházka | 7 of 25 | 28% | 4 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 27 of 37 | 72% | 10 of 19 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 9 | 20 of 30 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Jiří Procházka | 7 of 25 | 28% | 4 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 11 of 13 | 84% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 12 |
| Jiří Procházka | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Pereira to win again, citing his cleaner striking and the leg kick issue that Procházka couldn't solve in the first fight. He notes that Procházka's karate stance leaves his lead leg exposed, and Pereira's heavy leg kicks will be a problem. Cody also mentions that Pereira has improved his takedown defense since the first fight, and that Procházka's tendency to brawl plays into Pereira's hands. He acknowledges that Procházka is a madman who never stops coming, but believes Pereira's refined skills will prevail.
Daniel views the fight as a 50/50 coin flip, but likes the plus money on Procházka. He believes Procházka can create his 'perfect storm' and return the favor after being stopped early in the first fight. He notes that Procházka was not truly out and that the rematch is justified. He expects someone to hit the deck and hopes Procházka can avoid accumulated damage and the left hook.
Daniel Vreeland picks Alex Pereira, stating that Procházka's best path is creating chaos, but Pereira has the ability to navigate chaos and not engage with it while still taking advantage. He notes that Pereira is a more controlled and technical striker than Procházka, and he took care of him in the first fight. Vreeland believes Pereira will be almost impossible to beat unless someone comes with a heavy wrestling plan or is a striking savant like Izzy.
Jeff Fox picks Alex Pereira, stating he usually takes the winner of the first fight in a rematch. He notes that both fighters are dangerous on the feet, but Pereira is a more controlled version of Procházka and way more technical. Fox believes Pereira can keep himself safer while still being dangerous, and he expects Pereira to do the same as the first fight.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host acknowledges this is a very close fight, calling it a coin flip. He gives a slight edge to Pereira because he is the technically better striker, citing the calf kick and check left hook. However, he notes Procházka is just as capable of knocking Pereira out and that the underdog line at +130 is tempting. He ultimately leans Pereira by knockout but says he will likely not bet the fight, possibly taking the under 2.5 rounds.
Paul picks Pereira, emphasizing that he already beat Procházka once and is the cleaner striker. He notes that Procházka's leg kicks were a major issue in the first fight and that Pereira's left hook is deadly. Paul also points out that Procházka's takedown in the first fight was a result of Pereira grabbing a guillotine, a mistake he likely won't repeat. He expects a wild brawl but believes Pereira will finish Procházka again, possibly by knockout.
The Guru picks Jiří Procházka to defeat Alex Pereira in the rematch. He notes that in the first fight, Pereira had little success outside of low kicks, and Procházka was coming off a long layoff and shoulder injury. He believes Procházka's active fighting style and recent war with Rakic will benefit him, while Pereira's last fight was an easy win over Jamahal Hill. He predicts Procházka will pressure Pereira and finish him by TKO in round three.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 1 | 24 of 30 | 80% | 24 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 1 | 24 of 30 | 80% | 24 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jamahal Hill | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 24 of 30 | 80% | 12 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 14 |
| Jamahal Hill | 12 of 22 | 54% | 1 of 7 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 9 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 24 of 30 | 80% | 12 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 14 |
| Jamahal Hill | 12 of 22 | 54% | 1 of 7 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 9 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-130), Hill (+110)
Round 1
It may not have the blockbuster name like a Conor McGregor or Brock Lesnar type, but the headliner of UFC 300 is a legit matchup that promises action from start to finish. Pereira (9-2, 6-1 UFC) aims to make the first defense of his light heavyweight throne—a two-division champ at that—against a man in Hill (12-1, 1 NC; 6-1, 1 NC UFC) that never his belt in the cage. The rightful champion should emerge from this one, and they will have 25 minutes to punch one another’s lights out. Referee Herb Dean will try to stay away from any errant blows, and he brings them together to bump fists before the last fight of this storied event kicks off. It’s on with the show. Pereira whips a leg kick out to test the water, and Hill responds in kind. Pereira scores another, and Hill kicks him on the inside of the front leg. Pereira checks a low kick, and he skims one off the shin. Hill reaches out with a left hand, and Pereira measures a right. Pereira scores a loud body kick, and Hill darts in to land a solid right hand over the top. Hill turns his hips into low kicks from both sides, and Pereira chops back. Hill grabs Pereira’s wrist while they hand-fight with one another, and Hill prods out a front kick. Pereira gets in a hefty calf kick, and he jabs the body. Hill goes high with his shin, and Pereira blocks it in time. Hill digs a kick to the ribs, and he lances out two left hands. Pereira digs a right to the midsection, and he absorbs kicks on each side of his leg as he tries to check them all. Hill wraps a kick up to the body, and it bounces off the cop. Pereira waves Dean off and unloads a left hand that sends Hill crashing to the mat. Pereira smashes his fallen foe with otherworldly power, and he finishes the job with thunderous hammerfists. Hill completely goes out, and Dean leaps between them when recognizing “Sweet Dreams” is off in dreamland. “Poatan” stands back and motions to his handiwork, pointing at the unconscious Hill. Hill manages to sit up and come to, and he appears to ask Dean what happened as he stands up confused. Pereira’s coach, Glover Teixeira, awards the defending champion with his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt as they celebrate and embrace. Even the stoic Pereira cracks a smile. Ten wins into his MMA career, and Pereira has now won and lost the middleweight belt, and claimed and defended the light heavyweight throne. Pereira declares that he wishes to keep defending this belt, and he also expresses interest in competing at heavyweight—possibly in Rio de Janeiro in a few weeks. When taking photos with his team, Pereira dances a little and lets fly some of his more fun side. With that crushing knockout in the books, UFC 300 has reached its conclusion, and what an event it was. Several year-end awards will likely go to this memorable fight card, and if not, something truly spectacular will need to happen in the next eight months. If and when that happens, we will be there for it. We hope are too.
The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Jamahal Hill R1 3:14 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Alex Pereira, citing his power and physicality. He notes Hill may be the better striker and Pereira gets hit a lot, but Hill's layoff and injury recovery are concerns. He mentions Hill looked out of shape recently and may not be fully prepared. He acknowledges it wouldn't surprise him if Hill wins.
Cody acknowledges this is a flip-flop fight between Hill's volume and Pereira's power. He leans Pereira because he trusts Pereira's preparation and shape, while Hill is coming off a long layoff with an Achilles injury and doesn't appear to be in peak condition. Cody notes Hill has never been knocked down and has a cast iron chin, but Pereira's left hook is a constant threat. He also mentions Hill has zero takedowns in the UFC and Glover Teixeira is in Pereira's corner, providing familiarity. Ultimately, he goes with the power over volume, but admits it could go either way.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jamahal Hill to win by knockout, citing Hill's superior power and speed, his ability to switch stances to negate Pereira's calf kicks, and his proven durability. He notes that Pereira gets hit often and has been knocked out before, while Hill has never been rocked on the feet. Vreeland also mentions Hill's ground game as a potential factor, but expects a standup war.
Daniel Vreeland picks Alex Pereira, citing that the line is great value. He notes that Pereira is a world-class kickboxer and that Hill's best kickboxing opponent might be Johnny Walker. He also mentions that Hill has been injured for over a year and may not be sharp. He believes Pereira's technical striking will be too much for Hill.
Jeff Fox picks Alex Pereira, agreeing with Vreeland. He notes that Hill was not cleared to train until February, which is alarming. He also mentions that Hill seems convinced he can box with Pereira, but his past fights don't show that level of striking. He believes Pereira's technical striking will be the difference.
Pereira is the technically better fighter. Hill is coming back too early from injury and took the fight for the big stage, which will cause bad decisions. Pereira's striking will take advantage and land the check left hook, putting Hill out within two or three rounds.
Paul agrees with Cody, laying the chalk with Pereira. He notes the strange narrative of Hill immediately contacting Israel Adesanya for advice, which suggests short-notice preparation. Paul points out that throwing volume leaves you open for counters, and Pereira can take your head off at any point. He also mentions Hill has never been hurt or knocked down, so Pereira needs to land the money shot. Paul sees the fight as super competitive but favors Pereira's power and preparation.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira to win, citing Hill's defensive flaws and long layoff after an Achilles injury. He notes Hill's right hand drops and that Pereira's left hook and low kicks will be key. He worries about Hill's momentum and believes Pereira can find the knockout.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 30 of 53 | 56% | 44 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:45 |
| Jiří Procházka | 1 | 38 of 61 | 62% | 49 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 23 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Jiří Procházka | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 21 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Jiří Procházka | 1 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 32 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 30 of 53 | 56% | 18 of 37 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 26 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Jiří Procházka | 38 of 61 | 62% | 21 of 38 | 5 of 8 | 12 of 15 | 22 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 11 of 19 | 57% | 6 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Jiří Procházka | 11 of 20 | 55% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 19 of 34 | 55% | 12 of 24 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jiří Procházka | 27 of 41 | 65% | 17 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 14 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 14 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-155), Prochazka (+130)
Round 1
Stepping in to save the day once more—these two men also headlined UFC 300 when everything was up in the air—the shoe is now on the other foot. While Prochazka (30-4-1, 4-1 UFC) was the champion nearly eight months ago, Pereira (10-2, 7-1 UFC) wrested it from him viciously with a right hook, a number of elbows and a helpful stoppage from typically excellent referee Marc Goddard. This time, Pereira is the second of the two announced, and violence is once more a virtual guarantee. Having performed 34 knockouts in their 40 combined victories, another one could be right around the corner. The staredown before the fight begins is just as sensational as the first time they fought if not better, as they do not break gaze from one another for a second. Referee Herb Dean will take charge in the main attraction, and he brings the intense power hitters together so they can touch gloves before the cage door seals behind them. It’s on with the chaos. Both men flirt with taking the middle of the cage first, but it is Pereira who ultimately claims it initially as he pitches out a low kick. A front kick from “Poatan” pushes into the belly, and Prochazka switches stances back and forth. Pereira connects with a heavy low kick, and Prochazka rushes at him and is jabbed away. Prochazka goes after his own leg kick, and he absorbs a much heavier one despite the stance switch. Pereira prods out with another push kick, and Prochazka tries to reach with a left hand and he absorbs one coming back. Pereira intercepts him with a dagger of a jab, and he is able to easily block a high kick. Prochazka races at him launching punches, and he gets countered and nods at the Brazilian. Pereira drives home a blistering leg kick, and Prochazka jabs the body and absorbs another kick on the other side. Pereira whips a kick to the ribs, and Prochazka does not answer. Instead, “BJP” bounces down a few times, as if to fake a level change, but Pereira is not buying it. Prochazka closes the distance and ends up tying the champion up, and Pereira answers him with a stern knee to the midsection. Prochazka looks to trip Pereira up, isolating the left leg of his foe, but the Brazilian’s defense is currently ironclad. They trade knees until Pereira tosses him aside, and he looses a head kick that brushes Prochazka’s shoulder. Pereira connects with a right hook, and he easily parries a high kick that swats his way. Power is completely in the favor of the champion so far, and Prochazka rushes at the champion right before the bell and is sat down by blazing left hook. When Prochazka hits his back, the round ends, and he wobbles back to his corner as it was not a stoppage.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Pereira
Round 2
The second round begins with Pereira marching out of his corner, a man on a mission. “Poatan” unleashes a hellacious high kick that smashes into Prochazka’s dome and sets him crashing to the canvas. Dean rushes in but pulls back before intervening, and Prochazka sits up and turns to his side as Pereira charges him and blasts him with hammerfists. Knowing his work here is about to be done, Pereira finishes the job with a handful of ferocious fists to the side of the head. Dean steps in between them to call a halt to the main event, and if there was any question regarding the nature of the stoppage, Prochazka is unable to get back to his feet without assistance. Prochazka falls into the arms of Dean, as he should not have stood back up yet and is completely short-circuited. Pereira walks off, adjusting his foot, and he pops a toe back into socket or cranks it as it is broken or re-broken, likely from the punctuating head kick. Prochazka is brought down to the stool to recover, and when he recovers, he is crestfallen when learning the result. Once more, the two-division champion makes a statement, ending any debate regarding his series with Prochazka. In his post-fight interview, “Poatan” is asked about his future, which could potentially include a move to heavyweight to challenge for another belt. If the UFC does that, we will be here for that. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Jiri Prochazka R2 0:13 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Pereira after flipping from Procházka. He acknowledges Procházka's ability to win ugly fights but believes Pereira's world-class kickboxing and left hook will be too much for the hittable Procházka. He falls into the 'easy narrative' but thinks it's correct.
Big Brady picks Alex Pereira to win by first-round knockout. He criticizes Procházka's non-existent striking defense, noting he blocks punches with his face and has been rocked by lesser hitters. He believes Pereira's left hook will be too much for Procházka to handle. Brady acknowledges Procházka's toughness but thinks Pereira's power is a different level.
Cody picks Pereira, citing Procházka's long layoff and shoulder surgery as major concerns. He notes Procházka is a defensive liability who gets hit often, while Pereira is more polished and has been improving under Glover Teixeira. He believes Pereira's kickboxing pedigree and second fight at 205 will be key, though he acknowledges Procházka's power and volume could cause problems.
James passes on this fight entirely, calling it a massive pass due to extreme volatility. He notes both fighters have knockout power and questionable chins, and Procházka brings unorthodox strikes that Pereira hasn't faced. He leans slightly toward Pereira based on technical striking but admits he doesn't know and considers it 50/50. He mentions Procházka may have better recovery and durability.
Pereira's disciplined technical striking will be the difference against the wild and reckless Procházka. He will stuff takedowns and keep the fight on the feet. Procházka's power is a concern but Pereira's check left hook is nasty. Expects Pereira to open up a knockout victory and become the light heavyweight champion.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Pereira's first move up to 205 was tough but now he's had time to fill out his frame. He thinks Pereira's grappling under Glover is improving and that the takedown threat from Procházka is minimal. He sees Pereira's precision striking as the difference, eventually clipping Procházka.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira, citing his takedown defense and momentum. He notes that Procházka drops his right hand when striking, leaving him open to Pereira's left hook. He also mentions that Procházka has been wobbled in every fight and has been out for a year and a half with injury. He predicts Pereira will TKO Procházka in round one or two.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 52 of 81 | 64% | 82 of 117 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 2 | 0 | 7:32 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 70 of 92 | 76% | 112 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 17 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 4:50 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 32 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 33 of 47 | 70% | 54 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 33 of 57 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 35 of 42 | 83% | 46 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 52 of 81 | 64% | 41 of 66 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 41 of 67 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 9 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 70 of 92 | 76% | 26 of 46 | 23 of 24 | 21 of 22 | 62 of 83 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 6 of 6 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 20 of 29 | 68% | 15 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 33 of 47 | 70% | 13 of 25 | 10 of 11 | 10 of 11 | 28 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 26 of 46 | 56% | 20 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 35 of 42 | 83% | 12 of 19 | 13 of 13 | 10 of 10 | 33 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blachowicz (-125), Pereira (+105)
Round 1
The year is 2023, and for the second time in the last several months, there is no light heavyweight champion in the UFC. Once the glamour division, a litany of injuries and vacated belts left the throne unclaimed. This 205-pound clash will not be for the vacant strap, as some had expected, and instead will take place across three rounds. The victor will be sitting pretty for that next available opening, and former kingpin Blachowicz (29-9-1, 12-6-1 UFC) and ex-middleweight champ Pereira (7-2, 4-1 UFC) are positively salivating at the opportunity that awaits the triumphant man tonight. Referee Marc Goddard is on high alert for the next 15 minutes or less, although it has no bad blood so he can breathe a slight sigh of relief. The hulking light heavyweights bump fists, and they swat at one another with quick punches. Blachowicz ducks down in pursuit of a single, and he lifts Pereira’s leg up but cannot hold him down. Pereira keeps his back to the wall and wraps an arm around the neck, and he cinches his other arm around and fastens the grip to make it excruciatingly tight early. The Polish fighter is not remotely concerned, and he re-adjusts himself to drop down low enough to thwart the choke. Blachowicz leans heavily on his man while he doggedly pursues a single, and he uses heel strikes to the back of Blachowicz’ thigh and calf. Blachowicz imposes his weight on his man, and he manages to drag Pereira to the mat. Blachowicz snakes his legs around the waist to get hold of the body triangle, and he is quick to set up a rear-naked choke. The grip is on the chin and not beneath it, so Blachowicz changes his hands to try to slide it in. Pereira hand-fights to stop the choke, but Blachowicz is still on his back with his body lock tight. Blachowicz tries to keep himself leaned against the fence to stop Pereira from sliding him out the back door, and he lands one single strike before looking to put his right arm around the head. The Brazilian keeps himself out of submission danger, and he lowers himself down to puts himself in a worse position than before. Blachowicz gets the choke again, and he nearly flattens Pereira out. Pereira once more protects his neck, so Blachowicz decides to smack him upside the head with any free hand. Blachowicz keeps the lock tight around the waist, even as he cannot get the choke, and he elects to ride out the round in this dominant position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
The 205ers do not decide to touch gloves to engage this round, and Blachowicz is in the center of the cage immediately and he backs off to dodge a jab and check a leg kick. Blachowicz jabs the body in response, and Pereira sits down on a low kick. Blachowicz responds in kind, and Pereira gets off a solid body shot. Blachowicz intercepts the kickboxer with a short left hook, and Blachowicz flicks out several jabs. Blachowicz turns his shin to prevent a low kick from getting through, and Pereira marks the body with another straight punch. Blachowicz responds with his own body shot, and they both jab one another. Pereira sweeps the leg with a hard calf kick, and Blachowicz has to take a step to shake it out. Pereira lands another, and Blachowicz steps in with a hard left hook. Blachowicz follows it with a right hand, and Pereira is able to shake it out but overswings and opens himself up. This allows the Polish fighter to secure a double, where he plants Pereira on his back. Blachowicz stays heavy on top and opens up with a few strikes, and “Poatan” responds with a sharp elbow that gets through. Pereira tries to scoot himself to the fence in order to fight his way back to his feet, and he succeeds in getting to a knee and then standing. Pereira sneaks in short knees as Blachowicz continues to press on him, and Blachowicz gives him a stern knee to the solar plexus as he holds on. Pereira suddenly spins out quickly, and he appears the fresher fighter as he tosses out a head kick that Blachowicz barely blocks. Pereira comes at him with a body shot, and Blachowicz responds with a left over the top. Pereira stings Blachowicz with a left hook, and Blachowicz charges with a takedown that fails. Blachowicz backs off when he gets popped with a right, and the two tie up again with 40 seconds remaining. They both get in knees, and Pereira breaks off with two uppercuts and a body shot. Pereira corners his man and starts teeing off on him with short but dangerous shots, and Blachowicz leans back against the fence and is taking damage. Blachowicz responds with one left hook, and he takes a very heavy breath. Pereira lands two right hands, and Blachowicz drops down to shoot in but time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Round 3
The body language could scarcely look more different between the two, as Blachowicz is clearly spent while Pereira is psyched up. Both fighters come together to engage in the last round, and Blachowicz lumbers forward kicking low. Blachowicz is just able to avoid a massive uppercut, and the two trade jabs. Pereira batters his foe’s lead calf, which is nastily welted. Blachowicz musters his energy with a pair of punches and a body kick, and Pereira replies with a stern calf kick to the same spot. Pereira jabs the body, and he peppers the lead wheel. Blachowicz blitzes him with a few hooks, and Pereira shrugs at him. Pereira walks down his foe instead of attacking recklessly, and he takes a solid low kick as he come forward. Pereira gives him a jab to think about, and he parries a few punches that come his way. Blachowicz tries to check a kick, and he absorbs a flush right hand to the midsection. Blachowicz huffs and puffs and still reaches his foe with a left over the top, and Pereira beats him to the punch with a few punches right back at him. Blachowicz scores a clean left hand, and he shoots in for a takedown. Pereira stands him up but gets shoved back to the wall, although he is able to stave Blachowicz off. Blachowicz scores a left on the break, and he dings Pereira with another left hand. Blachowicz snaps the head back with a jab, and he charges forward but misses with two strikes. Blachowicz sits down on a leg kick, and the shins crack together. Both men land flush with blows, and Pereira hits the harder of the two and makes Blachowicz nod at him. Blachowicz walks through a left hook and eats a jab to the body, and he races forward swinging hands. Pereira stuffs a takedown, and the Brazilian makes him pay with a few punches. With 45 seconds left in the fight, Blachowicz is able to grab Pereira’s leg and sling him to the mat. When he lands in full guard, Blachowicz sits on top and looks for any energy he has to land strikes. Stacking Pereira up with seconds to spare, Blachowicz drops down hammerfists and concludes the fight on top. This one goes the distance, and it could be an extremely close one depending on how the final round was scored.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (29-28 Blachowicz)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)
The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Jan Blachowicz via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Alex Pereira but with hesitation, acknowledging that Jan's takedowns are a threat. He believes Pereira is the more technical striker with possibly more power, and that he will be fine defending takedowns or getting back up. However, he is worried about Pereira's chin after being knocked out three months ago. He is not betting on this fight but will look at props like most significant strikes.
Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz to win by second-round submission. He emphasizes Błachowicz's grappling advantage, noting he took down Israel Adesanya and controlled him. He criticizes Pereira's ground game, which looked poor against Adesanya. He hopes Błachowicz fights smart and uses wrestling, but is not 100% sure he will. If he does, it's an easy win.
Cody picks Błachowicz based on the takedown threat, noting Pereira's mediocre takedown defense and Błachowicz's success against Israel Adesanya by taking him down. He believes if Błachowicz gets top control, Pereira won't get up. He mentions the over 2 takedowns prop for Błachowicz. He hasn't bet it but is confident in the pick.
James picks Jan but with low confidence, citing volatility from Pereira's weight jump, recent knockout loss, and Jan's age. He thinks Jan is an underrated striker with good leg kicks and can compete on the feet, but he also notes Jan is hittable with the left hook. He believes Jan's path to victory includes takedowns, but he cannot guarantee Jan will wrestle.
Blachowicz's underrated striking and ability to take the fight to the ground will be the difference. He can survive Pereira's power and find his way into the pocket to grind him out. Pereira hasn't faced someone of Blachowicz's size and grappling. I'm leaning Blachowicz by submission late, but not a lot of conviction.
Paul picks Pereira, citing Błachowicz's age (40) and lack of recent wrestling success—only one takedown in his last nine fights (against Adesanya). He argues Błachowicz is not a high-level wrestler and fights at a slow pace, which plays into Pereira's striking. He notes Pereira's training with Glover Teixeira and improved takedown defense. He sees value at plus money.
Magomed Ankalaev - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 28 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 28 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Pereira | 28 of 45 | 62% | 21 of 35 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Pereira | 28 of 45 | 62% | 21 of 35 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 33 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, believing the rematch will be similar to the first fight. He argues that Alex Pereira's narrative about trusting his takedown defense and letting his hands go is flawed because Ankalaev almost knocked him out in the first fight. He also notes that defending takedowns is easier when that's all you focus on, and that Ankalaev now knows he can handle Pereira's power. He expects Ankalaev to win more dominantly.
Big Brady is concerned about Pereira's age (38), potential lack of focus due to newfound wealth and lifestyle, and recent performances. He believes Ankalaev is hungrier and more dedicated. He notes that Ankalaev almost finished Pereira in the second round of their first fight and that Pereira has been hurt multiple times. He predicts Ankalaev wins by third-round knockout.
Connor picks Ankalaev, agreeing with Zane that Pereira's age and the way Ankalaev pressured him in the first fight are key factors. He emphasizes that Ankalaev's ability to make clutch decisions and prevent big swings, combined with Pereira's declining willingness to take risks, makes Ankalaev the likely winner. Connor also notes that Pereira's back-foot game is not strong enough to counter Ankalaev's pressure.
The host expects a more violent and aggressive Pereira, which could work for or against him. He likes the under 3.5 rounds and believes Ankalaev will catch a reckless Pereira and knock him out, replicating the previous fight's success.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev, believing his wrestling, boxing, and mental focus will be key. He notes Pereira's difficulty with southpaws and the likelihood that Ankalaev improves his takedown efficiency. He predicts a finish in the championship rounds.
Zane picks Ankalaev because he believes Pereira's age and stylistic progression have made him more cautious and less willing to pull the trigger. He notes that Ankalaev is adept at steering fights and maintaining a narrow lead, and that Pereira struggled to create offense when pressured in their first fight. Zane also mentions that Ankalaev has never been knocked out and has a good chin, though he acknowledges Pereira's power is always a threat.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 76 of 137 | 55% | 97 of 159 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 94 of 180 | 52% | 127 of 224 | 0 of 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 5:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 12 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 21 of 34 | 61% | 21 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 4 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 23 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 19 of 24 | 79% | 45 of 61 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 | |
| 5 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 15 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 76 of 137 | 55% | 11 of 57 | 17 of 25 | 48 of 55 | 69 of 130 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 94 of 180 | 52% | 36 of 112 | 30 of 39 | 28 of 29 | 75 of 159 | 19 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 16 of 34 | 47% | 0 of 11 | 2 of 5 | 14 of 18 | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 9 of 27 | 33% | 1 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 18 of 36 | 50% | 3 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 10 of 13 | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 29 of 53 | 54% | 18 of 40 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 21 of 34 | 61% | 4 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 15 | 20 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 17 of 40 | 42% | 5 of 26 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alex Pereira | 7 of 12 | 58% | 0 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 19 of 24 | 79% | 7 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 11 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alex Pereira | 14 of 21 | 66% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 20 of 36 | 55% | 5 of 17 | 6 of 10 | 9 of 9 | 14 of 30 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ankalaev (-258), Pereira (+210)
Round 1
In March, Ankalaev (20-1-1, 1 NC; 12-1-1, 1 NC UFC) claimed the throne most expected he would sit atop by outworking Pereira (12-3, 9-2 UFC). After about seven months to prepare for the second engagement, the light heavyweight champs run it back, this time with “Poatan” as the challenger. Violence is expected to be the currency of the main event, and referee Herb Dean will be its banker. The two players are all in, and despite a bit of bad blood blossoming, they do bump their sizeable fists together. Time to spin the wheel.
Pereira rushes right out of his corner to hurl a one-two at the champion, and Ankalaev backs off and pushes off three front kicks to the chest. Pereira marches Ankalaev down, keeping him against the wall as he slaps a kick off the front leg. Ankalaev gains a little space from a swatting combination, and a second misses the mark when Pereira parries. The Brazilian works the other front leg after Ankalaev switches stances, and he clubs Ankalaev with a massive right hand. Ankalaev shoots desperately, his bell rung, and Pereira bowls him over and pounces on top of him. Pereira starts laying into Ankalaev with punches and elbows, and he jackhammers the Russian with devastating 12-to-6 elbows. Dean is paying close attention but observes Ankalaev blocking the majority of the blows so he sits back. Pereira is not about to slow down, knowing that Ankalaev is at least rocked or at best in grave danger. The fired-up “Poatan” batters and brutalizes the sitting champ, crushing him with elbows to the body and finalizing his journey with one last barrage of downward elbows. Dean steps in, and Pereira motions with both hands to the downed Ankalaev like he did in a past triumph, the “chama” version of “you see what happens, Larry!” Pereira goes to embrace his corner, and he checks on his toes that might have sustained some damage in the roughly 80 seconds of demolition.
The crowd goes wild, clearly having picked a side in this dispute and it was not the Russian. “Poatan” has the belt draped around his waist by matchmaker Mick Maynard and not UFC chief Dana White, and he puts his hand to his ear to drink in Bruce Buffer’s victory announcement. “Vengeance is never a good thing,” Pereira admits, even as he exacts revenge on a man that beat him earlier this year. He has handed Ankalaev his first defeat via strikes, and he declares that he was not surprised, mister falcons. Rather than call out former two-division champ Jon Jones, Pereira asks if the audience can give Arthur Jones, recently deceased brother of Jon Jones, a moment of silence. The entire T-Mobile Arena silences itself in an instant, giving Jones’ family and loved ones the respect they deserve. Just like that, the Ankalaev era is over, and Pereira already has a few challengers lined up in the form of Carlos Ulberg and possibly Jiri Prochazka—although the latter has already lost twice to him. The party begins, with Pereira and his crew at Teixeira MMA & Fitness dancing in the Octagon to celebrate the spectacular triumph. When Pereira defends his new belt, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Magomed Ankalaev R1 1:20 via TKO (Punches and Elbows)
Connor picks Pereira because he trusts Pereira's durability and defensive instincts, and believes Pereira's pressure and willingness to punch in the pocket will force Ankalaev out of his comfort zone. He notes that Ankalaev has a history of complacency and inconsistency, and that Pereira's jab and combination punching are poison for counter punchers like Ankalaev. Connor acknowledges that Ankalaev has the tools to win but is not trustworthy.
Lucrative James believes Ankalaev's wrestling advantage is the key factor. He notes that Ankalaev has been wrestling since childhood, while Pereira's grappling is a clear weakness. He argues that if Ankalaev uses his wrestling consistently, he will dominate from top position and win the fight. He also mentions that Pereira's hype has driven the line to a pick'em, but he sees Ankalaev as the rightful favorite. He acknowledges Pereira's elite striking and power, but thinks Ankalaev's low-paced kickboxing style minimizes danger and allows him to set up takedowns.
Zane picks Ankalaev despite his inconsistency, believing that the threat of Pereira's power will force Ankalaev to take risks and finally put together a complete performance. He notes that Ankalaev has the technical ability to trouble Pereira, especially with his southpaw right hook and counter punching, and that he has historically risen to the occasion when pressured. However, Zane admits it's a feast-or-famine pick and that Pereira is the smarter choice.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 55 of 114 | 48% | 75 of 142 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 53 of 117 | 45% | 59 of 123 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 19 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 23 of 50 | 46% | 24 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 20 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 32 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 55 of 114 | 48% | 20 of 72 | 22 of 29 | 13 of 13 | 50 of 105 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 53 of 117 | 45% | 10 of 65 | 9 of 12 | 34 of 40 | 50 of 111 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 19 of 34 | 55% | 7 of 19 | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 22 of 45 | 48% | 4 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 17 | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 23 of 50 | 46% | 8 of 33 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 23 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 19 of 43 | 44% | 3 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 14 | 18 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 30 | 43% | 5 of 20 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 22 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 12 of 29 | 41% | 3 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev as the first leg of his 'villain parlay' with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Ankalaev is a good kickboxer with wrestling, but he dislikes him and hopes the parlay loses. He thinks Ankalaev should win because Rakić is coming off two losses and hasn't won since 2021, and Ankalaev has the technical striking and wrestling advantage.
Big Brady slightly favors Ankalaev but thinks the fight will be close and competitive. He expects the striking to be competitive and the fight to go to decision. He notes that Ankalaev has a path to victory via wrestling, as Rakić hasn't faced many wrestlers in the UFC. He calls the line 'kind of dumb' but picks Ankalaev to win a close decision.
Cody picks Magomed Ankalaev, stating he is the uncrowned champion of the division and should roll over Rakić. He notes that Rakić hasn't looked good since 2019, has been knocked out in his last two fights, and lacks durability and volume. Cody believes Ankalaev's wrestling and striking will be too much, and that he will be motivated to make a statement to earn a title shot.
Connor picks Rakić, mainly because he wants Ankalaev to suffer and because Rakić is a more powerful striker with better fundamentals. He notes that Ankalaev tends to fight at a slow pace and rely on his wrestling, but often doesn't use it. Connor believes Rakić's jab and counter-punching could give him an edge in a kickboxing match.
Daniel Vreeland picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, citing his superior hands and ability to capitalize on Rakić's tendency to exit the pocket with his chin up. He expects Rakić to have early leg kick success but believes Ankalaev will make adjustments and either win by knockout or a 29-28 decision. Vreeland notes that Ankalaev is on a 12-fight unbeaten streak and that Rakić has been underwhelming despite his physique.
Lucrative James picks Magomed Ankalaev to win but is hesitant due to Ankalaev's poor fight IQ and tendency to make fights close. He notes that Ankalaev is the better all-around fighter with grappling upside, but his low volume and lack of power could lead to a close decision. He sees value on Rakić as an underdog and expects a split decision type fight. He is not confident enough to bet on Ankalaev at -360 odds.
Ankalaev's overall game is too much for Rakić. Many expect a grapple-heavy approach, but Ankalaev may unleash his striking to catch Rakić off guard, leading to a knockout victory. This would help him overcome the 'boring' label and earn a title shot.
Paul picks Ankalaev, agreeing that he is the best in the division and that Rakić is not a top-five fighter. He points out that Rakić has been outworked and knocked out in his recent fights, and that Ankalaev's wrestling and striking will be decisive. Paul also mentions that Ankalaev needs to put his foot on the gas to impress the UFC.
The Guru picks Ankalaev by decision, despite acknowledging Rakić's technical skills. He believes Ankalaev's pressure and clinch work will wear on Rakić, and that Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to secure rounds. He notes that Rakić has struggled to finish opponents and that Ankalaev's boxing will become more effective as the fight goes on. The Guru also mentions that the odds are too wide in Ankalaev's favor, suggesting Rakić offers value as an underdog, but ultimately sticks with Ankalaev via 29-28 decision.
Zane picks Ankalaev, expecting a slow-paced kickboxing match where Ankalaev edges out a decision. He acknowledges Rakić's power and technique but thinks Ankalaev will control the tempo and win a close fight, as he has done before. Zane is not confident but sees Ankalaev as the likely winner.
Zane did not make a pick for this fight. He criticized the matchup as boring, noting both fighters are consistent, risk-averse range strikers who favor high-percentage low-power strikes. He expressed disappointment that the UFC booked this fight knowing their styles, and predicted Ankalaev will likely get a title shot anyway due to lack of other options.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 39 of 58 | 67% | 39 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 24 of 71 | 33% | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 17 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 22 of 25 | 88% | 22 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 39 of 58 | 67% | 8 of 22 | 6 of 7 | 25 of 29 | 38 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Johnny Walker | 24 of 71 | 33% | 2 of 34 | 3 of 6 | 19 of 31 | 24 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 17 of 33 | 51% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 17 | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 15 of 50 | 30% | 2 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 11 of 19 | 15 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 22 of 25 | 88% | 6 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 12 | 21 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Johnny Walker | 9 of 21 | 42% | 0 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 12 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, expecting him to avoid Johnny Walker's wild strikes, clinch, and take him down to wear him out. He notes Ankalaev's wrestling backup and thinks he is desperate for a win. He finds the -500 odds too steep to bet given Walker's danger and Ankalaev's recent no-contest and draw.
Big Brady believes Ankalaev can win however he wants, but prefers the wrestling path. He notes Ankalaev's durability and wrestling are superior, while Walker is chinny and unpredictable. He expects Ankalaev to control the fight and win by decision, avoiding prolonged striking exchanges.
Cody picks Ankalaev despite acknowledging his tendency to make fights closer than necessary. He notes that in the brief first fight, Walker had nothing for Ankalaev and that Ankalaev is clearly the more skilled fighter. He believes Ankalaev will win even if he fights a stupid game plan, citing durability and overall skill advantage.
Cody picks Ankalaev to win by decision, noting that Ankalaev won the first fight and can mix in wrestling for cage control. He believes Ankalaev is faster and has a better gas tank, and that Pereira is 38 and unlikely to make major adjustments. He expects another close fight but edges it to Ankalaev.
Daniel Vreeland picks Magomed Ankalaev to defeat Johnny Walker. He acknowledges Ankalaev's well-rounded skill set and size, but notes he sometimes underwhelms. He believes Ankalaev will make adjustments after the first fight, where Walker targeted his legs. Vreeland is confident Ankalaev can get the job done wherever the fight goes, though he worries about Walker's athleticism and unorthodox attacks.
James picks Ankalaev to win via KO, citing that Ankalaev hurt Pereira in round two of their first fight and nearly knocked him out. He believes Pereira's chin may give out this time, and Ankalaev could also secure takedowns and dominate on the ground. James notes that Pereira's calf kicks were effective in the first fight but thinks Ankalaev may have adjusted. He also likes the under 4.5 rounds.
Magomed Ankalaev is a smooth, technical striker who is comfortable in both stances and has a strong clinch and wrestling game. He showed in the first fight that he could take Walker down and control him. Johnny Walker is on a three-fight winning streak and looks confident, but he has historically struggled against technical fighters and can be overwhelmed by grappling. Ankalaev's discipline and wrestling should allow him to neutralize Walker's power and grind out a decision. The over 1.5 rounds is a good play given Ankalaev's grappling approach.
Paul picks Ankalaev but expresses concern about his ring IQ and tendency to make fights close. He notes that Ankalaev has the skills to beat anyone but often ignores the wrestling path to victory. He believes Ankalaev is durable enough to take Walker's big shots and will win even if he fights a stupid game plan.
Paul leans towards Ankalaev but acknowledges the fight is close. He notes that Pereira took rounds off and that Ankalaev's wrestling, even if not successful, gave him cage control. He thinks the line is too wide and prefers the decision prop for Pereira, but ultimately sticks with Ankalaev.
The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker as an underdog, citing Walker's finishing ability and reach advantage (82 inches vs 75). He notes that Ankalaev may be frustrated by recent events (draw with Jan, no-contest with Walker) and that Walker got back up quickly from a takedown in the first fight. He predicts Walker will get a TKO/KO, benefiting from Ankalaev's potential emotional state.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 19 | 68% | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Johnny Walker | 14 of 27 | 51% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 10 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 19 | 68% | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Johnny Walker | 14 of 27 | 51% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 10 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, calling him one of the best light heavyweights. He thinks Ankalaev will slow the pace and fight his fight. He notes Johnny Walker's danger if he makes it ugly, but expects Ankalaev to earn a title shot. He considers Ankalaev a safe bet.
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision, though he expects a boring fight. He notes that Ankalaev has good wrestling, as seen against Jan Blachowicz, and that Johnny Walker struggled on the ground against Nikita Krylov. Brady believes Ankalaev will mix in takedowns, control Walker, and win a dull decision.
Cody picks Ankalaev, emphasizing that he should use his wrestling to neutralize Walker. He notes that Ankalaev has excellent wrestling and ground control, and that Walker is inconsistent and can be taken down. Cody believes that even if Ankalaev fights to his opponent's level, he should edge out a decision or get a finish. He also mentions the Abu Dhabi factor favoring Ankalaev in a close fight.
Daniel picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, acknowledging Ankalaev's superior technical skills and experience but expressing concern that he sometimes fights down to his competition. He notes Ankalaev's vulnerabilities, such as being dropped by Thiago Santos and leg kicks from Jan Błachowicz, and thinks Johnny Walker's leg kick game plan could be effective. However, he believes Ankalaev is on a different level and should win if he is aggressive, but he is not confident enough to bet at -350.
Ankalaev is one of the most complete fighters at 205 lbs, with high-level striking and wrestling. He can mix in takedowns to wear on Walker's cardio and slow him down. Walker is explosive but when unable to set the pace, he slows down and gives up positions. Expects Ankalaev to win a decision and earn another title shot.
Paul picks Ankalaev but is hesitant, noting that Ankalaev often fights to the level of his competition and has had close fights with lesser opponents. He worries that Ankalaev may not use his wrestling early and could get into a striking match where Walker's reach is an advantage. However, Paul believes Ankalaev's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi location give him the edge in a close decision.
The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker as a big underdog, citing a feeling that Walker will finish Ankalaev in a weird way. He notes Walker's 7-inch reach advantage and wild style that Ankalaev hasn't faced recently. He recalls Ankalaev being dropped by Thiago Santos and thinks Walker's takedown defense is underrated. He believes Ankalaev doesn't use his grappling unless losing and that Walker's momentum and size will be key.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 55 of 117 | 47% | 79 of 141 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 78 of 184 | 42% | 191 of 312 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 11:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 37 | 35% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 40 of 70 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 55 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 54 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 55 of 117 | 47% | 19 of 71 | 11 of 17 | 25 of 29 | 50 of 109 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 78 of 184 | 42% | 49 of 139 | 19 of 33 | 10 of 12 | 50 of 134 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 42 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 14 of 35 | 40% | 3 of 20 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 19 of 43 | 44% | 10 of 28 | 7 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 23 of 43 | 53% | 10 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 12 | 18 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 37 | 35% | 7 of 24 | 2 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 17 of 34 | 50% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 10 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 48 | 37% | 10 of 37 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 10 of 19 | 52% | 4 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 6 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 37 | 48% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 35 |
Angelo is very confident in Ankalaev, calling him the most complete fighter in the division with methodical, technical striking and wrestling. He believes Błachowicz's only chance is to land a big shot in close range, but Ankalaev's length, accuracy, and control will prevent that. He considers Ankalaev at -255 incredible value.
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev, citing his wrestling as the key difference. He notes Błachowicz has poor getup game once taken down, and Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to win rounds. He expects a competitive but boring fight on the feet, with Ankalaev winning by decision. He expresses disappointment in the matchup.
Cody picks Ankalaev, believing he is better in all facets and the number one guy in the division. He notes Ankalaev's high fight IQ, cardio, durability, and ability to adapt to opponents. He thinks Jan is older and his body is deteriorating, citing the Glover fight where Jan tapped quickly to a neck crank. Cody sees Ankalaev winning inside the distance, possibly in rounds 3-5, as Jan fades.
Connor picks Błachowicz as a flyer, believing Ankalaev will wait too long to wrestle, which could be fatal against a striker as good and defensively sound as Błachowicz. He notes Błachowicz's jab, footwork, and counterpunching will trouble Ankalaev, and that Ankalaev's single-strike approach plays into Błachowicz's hands. However, he acknowledges Ankalaev could dominate if he wrestles early.
Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win the vacant light heavyweight title. He emphasizes Ankalaev's patient, risk-averse style that frustrates opponents and his southpaw stance with a nasty counter right hook. Levi notes that Jan Błachowicz tends to attack in a straight line, which plays into Ankalaev's counters, and that Ankalaev can mix in takedowns from his Greco-Roman background. He acknowledges Błachowicz's power and body kicks but believes Ankalaev is defensively sound enough to avoid big moments and will win a decision, likely 4-1. Levi placed a 2-unit bet on Ankalaev at -250.
Lock is confident in Ankalaev, having bet him as his lock of the week at -255. He believes Ankalaev is that much better than Błachowicz and will rule the light heavyweight division for years. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks $5.26 is not too late to buy in, as Ankalaev has longevity and could reach $8-9 after defending the belt. He recommends holding onto the stock long-term rather than selling immediately.
Paul picks Ankalaev, noting he is a minus 255 favorite and that he believes Ankalaev is better in all facets. He struggles with Ankalaev's tendency to fight safe and not always press for finishes, making it hard to bet props. He thinks Ankalaev wins but is not confident in the moneyline at that price, considering a parlay or prop instead.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Jan Błachowicz by decision. He believes Ankalaev will be patient at range, use front kicks and jabs, and mix in takedowns after making Błachowicz hesitant. He notes Ankalaev's experience over five rounds and his ability to drain opponents, predicting a 49-46 decision where Ankalaev loses the first round but dominates later rounds.
Zane picks Ankalaev, citing his durability, patience, and power. He believes Ankalaev will find a moment to take Błachowicz down and win three rounds, as Błachowicz has historically struggled against takedown artists. Zane trusts Ankalaev to be consistent enough to capitalize on opportunities.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 46 of 79 | 58% | 64 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 21 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 26 of 38 | 68% | 41 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 46 of 79 | 58% | 31 of 60 | 6 of 9 | 9 of 10 | 23 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 32 |
| Anthony Smith | 18 of 36 | 50% | 6 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 17 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 20 of 41 | 48% | 9 of 26 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 9 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Anthony Smith | 13 of 23 | 56% | 3 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 26 of 38 | 68% | 22 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 31 |
| Anthony Smith | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision. He acknowledges Ankalaev's low volume but praises his power and defensive soundness. He doubts Smith can take Ankalaev down and notes Smith is hittable. He expects Ankalaev to win comfortably but not look like a -600 favorite unless he finishes early.
Cody picks Ankalaev but expresses concern about his ring IQ and tendency to make fights harder than necessary. He notes that Ankalaev has a history of not using his wrestling enough, standing with opponents and getting clipped. He thinks if Ankalaev sticks to takedowns, he wins easily, but he's not sure he will. He calls it a potential lock but worries about Ankalaev's decision-making. He also notes that Smith is crafty and has good cardio.
Daniel picks Ankalaev to win, but notes the fight depends on Smith's approach. If Smith is content to survive, it will be a boring decision for Ankalaev. If Smith pushes the pace, it could be exciting with a finish on either side. He acknowledges Ankalaev's counter-striking style and power, but says Smith needs to take risks to win. He expects Ankalaev to piece Smith apart over three rounds if Smith doesn't engage.
Preet picks Ankalaev by decision and likes the over 2.5 rounds, expecting Ankalaev to slow the fight with clinch and takedowns, grinding out Smith. He notes Ankalaev's ability to make adjustments, as seen against Krylov, and that Smith's pressure could make it exciting but ultimately Ankalaev's discipline wins. He avoids the moneyline at -560.
Paul picks Ankalaev, noting that he is the best guy at 205 pounds and has an easy path to victory by taking Smith down repeatedly. He acknowledges that Ankalaev sometimes makes fights harder by standing, but he expects him to win. He mentions that Smith's takedown defense has always been an issue and that Ankalaev should stick to the game plan. He also notes that the -600 price is wide but that's the price you have to pay.
The MMA Guru predicts Magomed Ankalaev wins by 29-28 or 30-27 decision. He expects a lackluster fight where Smith may win the first round but then shells up as Ankalaev chops the legs, lands ground-and-pound, and controls the later rounds. The Guru notes Ankalaev's patience and Smith's inability to create offense.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 60 of 138 | 43% | 81 of 160 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 78 of 155 | 50% | 114 of 191 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 10 of 32 | 31% | 16 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 21 of 48 | 43% | 36 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 | |
| 5 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 19 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Thiago Santos | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 36 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 60 of 138 | 43% | 14 of 75 | 16 of 26 | 30 of 37 | 57 of 135 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Thiago Santos | 78 of 155 | 50% | 33 of 94 | 35 of 51 | 10 of 10 | 64 of 140 | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 10 of 21 | 47% | 0 of 6 | 3 of 6 | 7 of 9 | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 8 of 23 | 34% | 3 of 13 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 15 of 36 | 41% | 7 of 22 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Thiago Santos | 15 of 32 | 46% | 6 of 18 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 30 | 60% | 2 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 13 | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 19 of 31 | 61% | 7 of 17 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Magomed Ankalaev | 10 of 32 | 31% | 4 of 23 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 21 of 48 | 43% | 13 of 38 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | |
| 5 | Magomed Ankalaev | 7 of 19 | 36% | 1 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Thiago Santos | 15 of 21 | 71% | 4 of 8 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, noting that Thiago Santos has slowed down at 38 and is not the same fighter who knocked out Jan Blachowicz. He believes Ankalaev's forward pressure, heavy kicks, and constant takedown threats will be too much. He expects a one-sided win, though not necessarily a stoppage.
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision. He notes Santos is 38, looks washed, has low volume (44 strikes in 25 minutes vs Walker), and has never recovered from his knee injuries after the Jones fight. He thinks Ankalaev is well-rounded, has power, and will outpoint Santos easily over five rounds. He expects the fight to be somewhat uneventful but Ankalaev will dominate. He mentions the line has moved from -330 to -500.
Cody is confident in Ankalaev, citing his pace, cardio, chin, and improved striking. He notes Santos is 38, has declined since knee surgery, and lacks volume. Cody sees Ankalaev as the best at 205 and expects him to win via pressure and volume, possibly a late stoppage. He mentions a parlay with Murzakanov at -106.
Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, citing Ankalaev's upward trajectory and the emergence of a new era of light heavyweights. He notes that Thiago Santos has had lackluster performances since the Jon Jones fight, with his knees falling apart. Levi expects a chess match early but sees Ankalaev landing a big counter or takedown with ground and pound. He acknowledges Santos's power but believes Ankalaev's counters are sharp and that he will eventually get a title shot.
Ankalaev is seen as the uncrowned champ, with a seven-fight win streak and granite chin. He's a technical striker with high striking defense, and his ability to adjust mid-fight is praised. Santos is past his prime at 38, with ACL surgery and tentative performances. Ankalaev is expected to win via decision, possibly a one-sided chess match.
Paul echoes Cody's view, emphasizing Santos' decline and Ankalaev's advantages in speed, volume, and wrestling. He notes the price is high but believes Ankalaev is the best in the division. He also mentions a parlay with Murzakanov.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Thiago Santos, citing Santos' hesitancy and lack of ligaments in his leg. He believes Ankalaev will chop at the legs early, mix in takedowns, and expose Santos' poor ground game as Glover Teixeira did. He expects a late second-round ground-and-pound TKO, noting that Ankalaev's patient counter-striking style works well against Santos. He admits Santos is a decent underdog but says the odds won't sway him, as Ankalaev wins this fight seven or eight times out of ten.
Expert Picks (3)
Connor picks Pereira because he trusts Pereira's durability and defensive instincts, and believes Pereira's pressure and willingness to punch in the pocket will force Ankalaev out of his comfort zone. He notes that Ankalaev has a history of complacency and inconsistency, and that Pereira's jab and combination punching are poison for counter punchers like Ankalaev. Connor acknowledges that Ankalaev has the tools to win but is not trustworthy.
Lucrative James believes Ankalaev's wrestling advantage is the key factor. He notes that Ankalaev has been wrestling since childhood, while Pereira's grappling is a clear weakness. He argues that if Ankalaev uses his wrestling consistently, he will dominate from top position and win the fight. He also mentions that Pereira's hype has driven the line to a pick'em, but he sees Ankalaev as the rightful favorite. He acknowledges Pereira's elite striking and power, but thinks Ankalaev's low-paced kickboxing style minimizes danger and allows him to set up takedowns.
Zane picks Ankalaev despite his inconsistency, believing that the threat of Pereira's power will force Ankalaev to take risks and finally put together a complete performance. He notes that Ankalaev has the technical ability to trouble Pereira, especially with his southpaw right hook and counter punching, and that he has historically risen to the occasion when pressured. However, Zane admits it's a feast-or-famine pick and that Pereira is the smarter choice.
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