UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 11"
Reach 71"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 5' 6"
Reach 67"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Yair Rodríguez
4.65 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.78 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.71 TD Avg
29.0% TD Acc.
59.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Patrício Pitbull
2.68 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
4.23 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
1.49 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
88.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Yair Rodríguez
Moneyline
BetWay -150
KO/TKO
FanDuel +360
Submission
BetRivers +1400
Decision
BetRivers +185
Patrício Pitbull
Moneyline
FanDuel +138
KO/TKO
FanDuel +650
Submission
FanDuel +700
Decision
BetWay +400
Yair Rodríguez - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 1 70 of 122 57% 97 of 157 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:43
Patrício Pitbull 0 17 of 50 34% 23 of 60 1 of 4 25% 1 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 11 of 21 52% 26 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patrício Pitbull 0 4 of 10 40% 5 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 21 of 45 46% 25 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:02
Patrício Pitbull 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:28
3 Yair Rodríguez 1 38 of 56 67% 46 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Patrício Pitbull 0 5 of 14 35% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 70 of 122 57% 38 of 82 18 of 23 14 of 17 43 of 89 2 of 2 25 of 31
Patrício Pitbull 17 of 50 34% 8 of 38 2 of 4 7 of 8 17 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 11 of 21 52% 3 of 10 4 of 5 4 of 6 10 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patrício Pitbull 4 of 10 40% 0 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 4 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Yair Rodríguez 21 of 45 46% 8 of 28 6 of 9 7 of 8 20 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patrício Pitbull 8 of 26 30% 5 of 21 1 of 2 2 of 3 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Yair Rodríguez 38 of 56 67% 27 of 44 8 of 9 3 of 3 13 of 25 0 of 0 25 of 31
Patrício Pitbull 5 of 14 35% 3 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Connor picks Rodríguez, echoing Zane's reasoning about Pitbull's vulnerability to aggressive strikers. He notes that Pitbull has struggled against fighters who pressure him early and that Rodríguez's length and kicking game pose unique problems. Connor acknowledges Pitbull's experience and ability to adjust between fights but believes Rodríguez's style is a bad matchup for the current version of Pitbull.

"I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez. I think I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez too."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Yair Rodríguez

Daniel Levi states that Yair Rodríguez schooled Patrício Pitbull, being much faster and more dynamic, and was a couple steps ahead all night. He notes that Pitbull looked shopworn and didn't shine in the big moment.

"Yaya Rodriguez just schooled Patricio Pitu and you know on tape it was there but sometimes you hold out hope that these legends are going to have you know they're going to shine bright in a big moment like that …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Lucrative James picks Patrício Pitbull to win, citing his experience, grappling advantage, and power. He believes Pitbull's wrestling and top control will be key, and he expects him to submit or ground-and-pound Rodríguez. He acknowledges Rodríguez's flashy kicks and danger but thinks Pitbull's cerebral style and veteran savvy will prevail. He notes that Pitbull is 37 and may be past his prime, but he still sees him as the better fighter overall. He also thinks the UFC is setting Pitbull up for a win to inject new blood into the division.

He predicts Pitbull wins inside the distance, possibly via submission or ground and pound.
"I'm predicting Patricio Pitbull to get the win on Yay Rodriguez. And I'm actually predicting him to get the win inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Zane picks Rodríguez, citing Pitbull's history of losing to aggressive, high-output fighters who take the initiative early. He notes that Pitbull has become a patient counter-puncher, which plays into Rodríguez's strengths as a long-range striker with dynamic kicks. Zane points to Pitbull's recent loss to Chihiro Suzuki as evidence that he can be overwhelmed by a powerful, wild striker. He acknowledges Pitbull's grappling and experience but believes Rodríguez's reach and willingness to attack from distance will be decisive.

"I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez. I think I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez too."
LOSS vs Brian Ortega
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 0:58 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brian Ortega 1 55 of 115 47% 64 of 135 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:32
Yair Rodríguez 0 28 of 73 38% 47 of 104 3 of 6 50% 1 0 5:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brian Ortega 1 45 of 91 49% 50 of 102 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:32
Yair Rodríguez 0 6 of 28 21% 7 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:42
2 Brian Ortega 0 9 of 17 52% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yair Rodríguez 0 22 of 44 50% 39 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:55
3 Brian Ortega 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yair Rodríguez 0 0 of 1 0% 1 of 4 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brian Ortega 55 of 115 47% 36 of 91 11 of 15 8 of 9 34 of 86 9 of 12 12 of 17
Yair Rodríguez 28 of 73 38% 26 of 69 2 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 50 2 of 3 13 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brian Ortega 45 of 91 49% 28 of 69 10 of 14 7 of 8 24 of 62 9 of 12 12 of 17
Yair Rodríguez 6 of 28 21% 5 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brian Ortega 9 of 17 52% 7 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yair Rodríguez 22 of 44 50% 21 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 21 2 of 3 13 of 20
3 Brian Ortega 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yair Rodríguez 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Angelo picks Ortega with low confidence, citing the first fight where Ortega was winning before his shoulder injury. He notes the elevation and crowd in Mexico could favor Rodriguez, but trusts his brain over his gut. He worries about Ortega's long layoff but believes he can squeak out a win.

"I think Brian Orga can win this fight I am split though my brain and my gut are saying two different things"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Big Brady picks Yair Rodríguez to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Rodríguez has been more active and looked impressive against Josh Emmett, while Ortega has had a long layoff. He believes Rodríguez has the advantage on the feet with his kicks and power, and that Ortega is hittable. He doubts Ortega's wrestling will be effective, as Rodríguez stuffed takedowns in their first fight. He expects Rodríguez to dominate at range and eventually finish Ortega.

Rodríguez wins by KO in round 3
"I got to go Yer here um I think he's going to be able to stuff a lot of these takedowns Ortega's never really had the best wrestling and on the feed I just kind of think it's one-way traffic …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Cody picks Ortega, noting that in their first fight Ortega was winning before the shoulder injury. He believes Ortega's skills haven't digressed, his jiu-jitsu is second to none, and his wrestling is good enough to take down Rodriguez. He also mentions Ortega's ability to come back better after layoffs, as he did after the Holloway loss. He considers the plus 130 price good value.

"I'll take the dog Bri Orga nice"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

The host recalls the first fight where Rodríguez kept Ortega at bay with striking and Ortega's only success was a clinch takedown that led to an injury. He believes Rodríguez needs to keep the fight standing, and even if it goes to the ground, Rodríguez has worked on his jiu-jitsu to defend and get back to his feet. He predicts Rodríguez will finish Ortega by the third round.

Finish by third round
"Rodriguez really needs to keep this fight in the Striking real otherwise Ortega can utilize the one advantage he normally holds in his matchup and that's what his submission game but it's clear Rodriguez has been working on his Jiu-Jitsu …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Paul is leaning towards Ortega but is hesitant due to the year-and-a-half layoff, Ortega's age (33), and his recent record (lost last two, hasn't finished in six years). However, he acknowledges Ortega matched up well in the first fight and has the skills to win. He says if he had a gun to his head he'd pick Ortega, but it's a wild card pick.

"yeah like want to pick Ortega think I might pick Ortega if I got a gun to my head take a couple underdogs on this card Ortega certainly is one that is looking appealing"
TKO (punches) R3 4:19 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkanovski 0 66 of 97 68% 149 of 198 7 of 12 58% 0 0 7:13
Yair Rodríguez 0 40 of 80 50% 57 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkanovski 0 11 of 15 73% 49 of 58 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:22
Yair Rodríguez 0 5 of 9 55% 10 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkanovski 0 18 of 25 72% 55 of 75 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:33
Yair Rodríguez 0 12 of 19 63% 24 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Volkanovski 0 37 of 57 64% 45 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Yair Rodríguez 0 23 of 52 44% 23 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkanovski 66 of 97 68% 48 of 69 4 of 5 14 of 23 25 of 45 4 of 6 37 of 46
Yair Rodríguez 40 of 80 50% 13 of 49 11 of 14 16 of 17 38 of 77 0 of 0 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkanovski 11 of 15 73% 9 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 4 2 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 11
Yair Rodríguez 5 of 9 55% 1 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 4 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Alexander Volkanovski 18 of 25 72% 15 of 19 1 of 1 2 of 5 4 of 10 1 of 1 13 of 14
Yair Rodríguez 12 of 19 63% 4 of 10 5 of 6 3 of 3 11 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Alexander Volkanovski 37 of 57 64% 24 of 39 3 of 4 10 of 14 19 of 31 3 of 5 15 of 21
Yair Rodríguez 23 of 52 44% 8 of 35 5 of 7 10 of 10 23 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Angelo is confident in Volkanovski, calling the -400 odds appropriate. He highlights Volkanovski's speed, kick usage, takedowns, and strength, and notes his performance against Islam Makhachev. He thinks Volkanovski will control the pace, mix in takedowns, and keep Rodríguez on the back foot, preventing his wild striking. He acknowledges Rodríguez's danger but believes Volkanovski is on another level.

"Alex is the pick he's sitting at like minus 400 and that feels very appropriate to me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by late stoppage (fourth round). He notes that Volkanovski is the better striker with more volume and better defense, and he has a huge advantage in wrestling and ground and pound. He points out that Rodríguez has poor takedown defense and no answers off his back, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar, Jeremy Stephens, Max Holloway, and Josh Emmett. He believes Volkanovski will take Rodríguez down, beat him up, and get a doctor stoppage or TKO in the later rounds.

fourth round stoppage (TKO/doctor stoppage)
"give me Alexander volkanovski and still I think he finishes Yaya Rodriguez late in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Cody picks Volkanovski to retain, citing his durability, cardio, and submission defense. He notes Yair's danger with unorthodox strikes but believes Volk's constant pressure and takedowns will be decisive. He mentions Volk's training with Blood Diamond to mimic Yair's style. He leans toward Volk by decision but wouldn't be surprised by a stoppage.

Volkanovski by decision (+120), inside distance (+160), over rounds, significant strikes over 135.5, takedowns over 3
"I gotta go with the King Alexander volkonowski to retain"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Connor picks Volkanovski, emphasizing his championship quality and preparation. He acknowledges Yair's danger, especially his kicking game and durability, but believes Volkanovski's pressure and wrestling will be decisive. Connor notes that Volkanovski's ability to take Yair down and control him on the ground is the path to victory.

"You pretty much have to pick Volkanovski. Yeah, because he's Volkanovski."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Daniel Levi picks Volkanovski, citing his elite fainting game, ability to out-jab taller opponents, and superior boxing in close range. He notes Volkanovski's takedown of Islam Makhachev as evidence of his wrestling prowess, which he believes will be a key advantage against Yair's suspect takedown defense. Levi acknowledges Yair's unique kicking arsenal and the head-kick KO history of Volkanovski, but expects Volkanovski's pressure and cardio to take over as the fight progresses. He also mentions that Yair's energy-intensive style may lead to a slowdown in later rounds.

"I'm picking Volk."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Alexander Volkanovski

James picks Volkanovski to win by ground-and-pound, likely in rounds 3 or 4. He believes Volkanovski's superior fight IQ and grappling advantage will be decisive. He notes Rodríguez has clear deficiencies on the ground and Volkanovski has heavy ground-and-pound. He also mentions the weight cut factor for Volkanovski moving back down, but still favors him. He does not advocate betting the moneyline at -400, but likes the inside distance prop.

Volkanovski wins inside the distance; fight doesn't go to decision
"official prediction vulcanovski via Grand and pound round four round three"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is the more polished and disciplined fighter with excellent striking defense, movement, and wrestling. Rodriguez has flashy striking and an active guard, but has been broken before. Volkanovski will close distance, land takedowns, and control the fight, likely winning by decision. He is a safe parlay piece.

parlay
"I think just taking his chalky spot throwing it into a parlay is not a bad way to go about it."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Paul agrees with Cody, stating it's tough to go against Volk at 145. He highlights Volk's ability to win on volume or by mixing in wrestling, and his proven submission defense. He mentions Volk's training with Blood Diamond to mimic Yair. He says he'll likely include Volk in parlays but won't place a serious wager.

Volkanovski by decision (+120), inside distance (+160), over rounds, significant strikes over 135.5, takedowns over 3
"could not back Volk I mean I don't know if I'm gonna back him with my pocket but the guy's just good everywhere"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by fourth-round TKO. He acknowledges Rodríguez's dangerous striking but doubts his finishing ability, calling his ground and pound pathetic. He believes Volkanovski's leg kicks and pressure will disrupt Rodríguez's flow, and that Volkanovski's top game in later rounds will be decisive. He notes that Holloway already handled Rodríguez on the ground.

wins by TKO in the fourth round
"I'm gonna go with vulcanov skin round four TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Zane picks Volkanovski, citing his pressure wrestling and ability to exploit Yair's defensive flaws. He notes that Volkanovski's wrestling will be key to neutralizing Yair's kicking game and that Yair's stamina flags under grappling pressure. Zane expects Volkanovski to take Yair down and grind him out, possibly with a late TKO.

Volkanovski by TKO in round 4 or later at 35%
"I think assuming Volkanovski pressures again, you have to pick him."
WIN vs Josh Emmett
Submission (triangle choke) R2 4:19 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 62 of 107 57% 98 of 143 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 22 of 52 42% 35 of 72 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 26 of 53 49% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 12 of 26 46% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:27
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 36 of 54 66% 66 of 84 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 10 of 26 38% 17 of 34 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 62 of 107 57% 36 of 76 18 of 22 8 of 9 47 of 87 7 of 9 8 of 11
Josh Emmett 22 of 52 42% 17 of 44 4 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 40 1 of 2 8 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 26 of 53 49% 14 of 39 7 of 9 5 of 5 21 of 44 1 of 2 4 of 7
Josh Emmett 12 of 26 46% 10 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 15 1 of 2 7 of 9
2 Yair Rodríguez 36 of 54 66% 22 of 37 11 of 13 3 of 4 26 of 43 6 of 7 4 of 4
Josh Emmett 10 of 26 38% 7 of 20 2 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Angelo picks Josh Emmett, citing his power and wrestling base, though he notes Emmett doesn't use his wrestling often. He believes Emmett's power will be the difference, especially if he can stay close and grind. He acknowledges Yair's creativity and athleticism but thinks Emmett's power and pressure will win. He has a half-unit bet on Emmett at +135.

"Emmett's the pick and I do have a half a unit on him at plus 135"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Big Brady thinks this is a close fight and picks Emmett for the upset. He notes Emmett's power and volume, and thinks Emmett will have the bigger moments. He expects a decision win for Emmett, similar to the Kattar fight, and says the line should be closer.

"I'm gonna pick Josh Emmett here for the upset win I'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Cody picks Rodríguez but is not confident due to Rodríguez's inconsistency. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway with improved cardio and kicking volume, but Emmett has power and wrestling he doesn't use offensively. He thinks Emmett's path is a big shot, but Rodríguez's chin and volume should edge him out. He finds the -175 line unappealing and won't bet it.

"I just think yeah Rodriguez pulls out with it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Connor picks Rodríguez, citing his diverse kicking game and durability as key factors. He notes that Emmett's style is one-dimensional and that Rodríguez can attack from range with kicks, which Emmett struggles to check. Connor also mentions that Emmett's wrestling is not a reliable threat, as he rarely uses it. He believes Rodríguez's toughness and ability to absorb punches will allow him to outwork Emmett over three rounds.

"I also favor yahir. I this was one that kind of threw me because I looked at it and i'm like oh josh emmett's a better fighter than yahir rodriguez... This is not a good fight for josh emmett."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Emmett's power punching and forward pressure will be too much for Rodríguez as the fight goes on. Rodríguez slows down in later rounds, as seen against Jeremy Stephens. Emmett has great cardio and defensive wrestling to keep it standing. He will close the distance and land big combinations, likely finishing in the fourth or fifth round. Rodríguez's unorthodox striking may be competitive early, but Emmett's durability and pressure will take over.

"I think Josh Sherman will get closer and closer with those big punches and it's going to continue to demoralize Yaya Rodriguez and I think just slowly but surely Josh Yemen is going to get closer and closer to eventually …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Paul slightly favors Rodríguez on volume, noting Emmett has a power advantage but Rodríguez has better durability. He expects a close competitive fight and thinks the line is accurate, so he won't bet it.

"I'll ever so slightly think that yair Rodriguez edges them out on volume but at minus 160 I mean I think that the books have this one pretty correct"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

The MMA Guru picks Yair Rodríguez over Josh Emmett, citing Emmett's controversial wins and Rodríguez's improved performance against Ortega. He predicts a front kick KO in the first round, noting Rodríguez's chin and Emmett's tendency to get hit. He believes Rodríguez is on a higher level than Emmett.

first round KO via front kick
"I'm gonna go Yaya Rodriguez winning over Josh Emmett"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Zane also picks Rodríguez, emphasizing his improved composure and durability. He notes that Emmett's power is a threat, but Rodríguez has never been knocked out and can take shots. Zane highlights that Rodríguez's kicks will be a major problem for Emmett, who has shown vulnerability to low kicks. He also points out that Emmett's wrestling is not a consistent factor, and Rodríguez's range management will frustrate him.

"I also favor yahir. I this was one that kind of threw me because I looked at it and i'm like oh josh emmett's a better fighter than yahir rodriguez... This is not a good fight for josh emmett."
WIN vs Brian Ortega
TKO (shoulder injury) R1 4:11 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 22 of 35 62% 26 of 39 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:24
Brian Ortega 0 23 of 46 50% 48 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 22 of 35 62% 26 of 39 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:24
Brian Ortega 0 23 of 46 50% 48 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 22 of 35 62% 18 of 30 3 of 3 1 of 2 15 of 27 7 of 8 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 23 of 46 50% 18 of 41 0 of 0 5 of 5 21 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 22 of 35 62% 18 of 30 3 of 3 1 of 2 15 of 27 7 of 8 0 of 0
Brian Ortega 23 of 46 50% 18 of 41 0 of 0 5 of 5 21 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Angelo picks Yair Rodríguez, citing his dynamic striking and unpredictability. He believes Ortega's poor takedown accuracy (24%) will prevent him from getting the fight to the ground, and that Rodríguez's striking will be too much. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway despite the loss, and that he won't have ring rust this time. He placed a small moneyline bet at +137.

small moneyline bet at +137
"i do think yeah rodriguez gets this done i did put a small money line bet on him at plus 137."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Big Brady picks Brian Ortega to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes that Ortega has improved his wrestling significantly, attempting many takedowns in recent fights against top competition like Holloway, Korean Zombie, and Volkanovski. He believes Ortega can take down Rodriguez, who has been taken down frequently in the past, and once on the ground, Ortega's submission game is elite. He acknowledges Rodriguez is the better striker but thinks Ortega's path to victory is through grappling.

submission in round 2 or 3
"i'm going to say ortega does get this fight down to the mat i'm going to say he does lock up something i'll say second or third round submission for brian ortega"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Cody argues that Yair Rodríguez's ground game and wrestling are exploitable, as seen in fights against Frankie Edgar and Jeremy Stephens where he was taken down easily. He notes that Brian Ortega has improved his wrestling, taking down elite fighters like Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Cody believes Ortega will capitalize on Rodríguez's tendency to fall off-balance and secure a submission or dominant ground control.

Ortega inside the distance, Ortega by submission, under 4.5 rounds, over 2 takedowns for Ortega
"i just got to think ortega is going to capitalize at some point and for that reason he's got to be the main event selection"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Daniel Levi picks Yair Rodríguez to win as an underdog, emphasizing that Yair must keep the fight standing and avoid reckless spinning attacks that could lead to takedowns. He notes that Ortega is dangerous on the ground with submissions and has a history of comeback finishes, but believes Yair's discipline and striking can earn a decision. Levi mentions he will likely bet Yair at +155, viewing it as a dog-or-pass situation due to high variance.

moneyline bet at +155; likely decision win; dog-or-pass situation
"i'm gonna go yay rodriguez to defeat brian ortega and get the upset and cash as an underdog"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

Paul agrees with Cody that Ortega is the rightful favorite, citing Yair's overrated win over Korean Zombie where he was seconds from losing. He emphasizes that Ortega's takedowns and submission threat will be decisive, and notes the line moving from -150 to -180. Paul suggests under 4.5 rounds and Ortega by submission as prop bets.

Ortega inside the distance, Ortega by submission, under 4.5 rounds, over 2 takedowns for Ortega
"i think ortega's the the line's been moving that way it was like minus 150 minus 160. it's like minus 180 now it's gonna continue to move i think he's the rightful favorite"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Brian Ortega

The MMA Guru picks Brian Ortega over Yair Rodríguez, citing Ortega's superior jiu-jitsu and ability to capitalize on Rodríguez's defensive habits. He notes that Rodríguez dips his head when pressured, which could lead to a guillotine choke. He also mentions Ortega's improved footwork and takedowns, and believes Rodríguez's power is overrated. He predicts a third-round submission win for Ortega.

predicts third-round submission (guillotine)
"i'm going to call a third round guillotine finish for brian ortega getting it done by submission in a great fight"
LOSS vs Max Holloway
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Holloway 0 230 of 404 56% 251 of 434 3 of 5 60% 1 0 6:49
Yair Rodríguez 0 159 of 352 45% 186 of 383 1 of 5 20% 0 1 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Holloway 0 38 of 57 66% 42 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Yair Rodríguez 0 37 of 79 46% 38 of 80 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:43
2 Max Holloway 0 58 of 110 52% 59 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Yair Rodríguez 0 42 of 84 50% 43 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Max Holloway 0 38 of 66 57% 46 of 81 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:04
Yair Rodríguez 0 20 of 47 42% 20 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
4 Max Holloway 0 43 of 77 55% 49 of 84 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:06
Yair Rodríguez 0 24 of 64 37% 28 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Max Holloway 0 53 of 94 56% 55 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:00
Yair Rodríguez 0 36 of 78 46% 57 of 99 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Holloway 230 of 404 56% 129 of 278 66 of 83 35 of 43 187 of 347 22 of 24 21 of 33
Yair Rodríguez 159 of 352 45% 78 of 247 24 of 41 57 of 64 152 of 343 5 of 5 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Holloway 38 of 57 66% 16 of 30 8 of 9 14 of 18 38 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yair Rodríguez 37 of 79 46% 12 of 43 7 of 13 18 of 23 35 of 75 0 of 0 2 of 4
2 Max Holloway 58 of 110 52% 29 of 69 23 of 34 6 of 7 56 of 107 2 of 2 0 of 1
Yair Rodríguez 42 of 84 50% 15 of 54 5 of 7 22 of 23 41 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Max Holloway 38 of 66 57% 25 of 53 11 of 11 2 of 2 20 of 40 4 of 4 14 of 22
Yair Rodríguez 20 of 47 42% 13 of 38 2 of 4 5 of 5 19 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Max Holloway 43 of 77 55% 22 of 52 13 of 16 8 of 9 33 of 65 4 of 5 6 of 7
Yair Rodríguez 24 of 64 37% 17 of 53 3 of 6 4 of 5 24 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Max Holloway 53 of 94 56% 37 of 74 11 of 13 5 of 7 40 of 78 12 of 13 1 of 3
Yair Rodríguez 36 of 78 46% 21 of 59 7 of 11 8 of 8 33 of 75 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Angelo picks Max Holloway to win inside the distance, having placed a one-unit bet at +110. He notes that Holloway's technical striking should cut through Rodriguez's theatrical style. Angelo thinks Holloway will close the distance and avoid the spin attacks, and that Rodriguez's two-year layoff is a factor.

wins inside the distance at plus 110
"i already did the plus 110 wins inside the distance"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Big Brady is confident in Max Holloway, highlighting his insane volume (7.26 significant strikes per minute) and legendary durability (never knocked down). He notes Rodriguez likely needs a KO to win, but Holloway's chin and cardio are elite. Brady expects Holloway to increase volume each round and predicts a fifth-round TKO as damage accumulates.

Holloway by TKO in round 5
"i'm gonna take him to win by like a fifth round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Cody believes Holloway is a god-tier operator who dominates non-elite opponents. He references Holloway's record 445 significant strikes against Kattar and argues that his losses are only to the best (Volkanovski, Poirier). He expects Holloway to win inside the distance, likely by TKO in the later rounds, and thinks the over 3.5 rounds is a solid play.

Max Holloway wins inside the distance (TKO), over 3.5 rounds
"how could you possibly bet against him now at 701 there's no more meat on the bone"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Daniel Levi picks Max Holloway, citing his record-breaking output against Calvin Kattar (447 significant strikes landed) and his status as the clear #2 featherweight. He acknowledges Yair Rodríguez's dynamic striking and finishing ability but believes Holloway's volume and pressure will overwhelm Rodríguez as he fatigues. Levi notes that Rodríguez is a live underdog but ultimately trusts Holloway's proven championship level.

"give me max holloway to come out here and defeat yay rodriguez"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Jacob picks Max Holloway to win inside the distance, placing a four-unit bet at +110. He believes there are levels to this and that Holloway will wear on Rodriguez with volume and finish him. Jacob thinks Holloway wants to make a statement as a big favorite.

four unit bet on max holloway inside the distance
"i got a four unit bet inside the distance you can get it for plus 110 right now"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Paul thinks Max Holloway's volume and durability are unmatched. He notes Holloway's record-breaking strike output and believes Rodríguez can't keep the pace. He's priced out at -720 but still picks Holloway to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.

over 3.5 rounds at -175
"i think max holloway's gonna win i think he wins on volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Max Holloway

The Guru picks Max Holloway by third-round TKO (doctor stoppage due to swelling). He expects Rodríguez to have a strong first round with leg kicks and flashy strikes, but Holloway's pressure, body work, and oblique kicks will break Rodríguez down. By the third round, Rodríguez's eye will be swollen shut, forcing a stoppage.

TKO in round 3 via doctor stoppage
"i'm going with max holloway via third round cko but it's going to be at the end of the round where yay doesn't get back up for the fourth"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman · Oct 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 96 of 170 56% 136 of 213 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:10
Jeremy Stephens 0 50 of 95 52% 99 of 156 3 of 4 75% 0 0 5:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 39 of 70 55% 39 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:50
Jeremy Stephens 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 41 of 73 56% 62 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
Jeremy Stephens 0 11 of 22 50% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:33
3 Yair Rodríguez 0 16 of 27 59% 35 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jeremy Stephens 0 28 of 49 57% 67 of 97 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 96 of 170 56% 65 of 127 14 of 23 17 of 20 54 of 100 6 of 10 36 of 60
Jeremy Stephens 50 of 95 52% 35 of 76 10 of 10 5 of 9 19 of 51 6 of 11 25 of 33
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 39 of 70 55% 18 of 43 9 of 13 12 of 14 34 of 61 4 of 8 1 of 1
Jeremy Stephens 11 of 24 45% 3 of 14 4 of 4 4 of 6 9 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Yair Rodríguez 41 of 73 56% 37 of 67 2 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 13 2 of 2 34 of 58
Jeremy Stephens 11 of 22 50% 9 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 8 4 of 7 6 of 7
3 Yair Rodríguez 16 of 27 59% 10 of 17 3 of 6 3 of 4 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jeremy Stephens 28 of 49 57% 23 of 43 4 of 4 1 of 2 9 of 22 0 of 1 19 of 26
LOSS vs Jeremy Stephens
No Contest (accidental eye poke) R1 0:15 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Sep 21, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 96 of 170 56% 136 of 213 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:10
Jeremy Stephens 0 50 of 95 52% 99 of 156 3 of 4 75% 0 0 5:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 39 of 70 55% 39 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:50
Jeremy Stephens 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 41 of 73 56% 62 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
Jeremy Stephens 0 11 of 22 50% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:33
3 Yair Rodríguez 0 16 of 27 59% 35 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jeremy Stephens 0 28 of 49 57% 67 of 97 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 96 of 170 56% 65 of 127 14 of 23 17 of 20 54 of 100 6 of 10 36 of 60
Jeremy Stephens 50 of 95 52% 35 of 76 10 of 10 5 of 9 19 of 51 6 of 11 25 of 33
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 39 of 70 55% 18 of 43 9 of 13 12 of 14 34 of 61 4 of 8 1 of 1
Jeremy Stephens 11 of 24 45% 3 of 14 4 of 4 4 of 6 9 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Yair Rodríguez 41 of 73 56% 37 of 67 2 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 13 2 of 2 34 of 58
Jeremy Stephens 11 of 22 50% 9 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 8 4 of 7 6 of 7
3 Yair Rodríguez 16 of 27 59% 10 of 17 3 of 6 3 of 4 15 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jeremy Stephens 28 of 49 57% 23 of 43 4 of 4 1 of 2 9 of 22 0 of 1 19 of 26
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jeremy Stephens vs. Yair Rodriguez

Round 1
We are now treated to a rematch of the main event from UFC Mexico City in September, which tragically ended due to an eye poke within 15 seconds. Rodriguez (12-2, 1 NC; 7-1, 1 NC UFC) is ready to run it back with Stephens (28-16, 1 NC; 16-15, 1 NC UFC), and tensions are high. Trying to keep a lid on this featherweight tilt is referee Kevin MacDonald. There is no touch of the gloves of any kind, as Rodriguez leaps through the air with a flying head kick that clanks off the dome of Stephens. Stephens wings back some angry punches, and the two trade for a moment with bad intentions. Rodriguez clinches up and pushes Stephens against the cage, and Stephens throws a knee to the body, so Rodriguez retaliates with one of his own. The crowd has started to chant "U.S.A." to root on their home country fighter, and as they break apart, Rodriguez lands a powerful elbows over the top. "El Pantera" throws a wild spinning wheel kick that is nowhere near the mark, but he regains position and throws several heavy kicks on both legs. A few body kicks are finding their home on Stephens' midsection, and they are adding up quick. Stephens fires back with everything he has in the form of right hands, but Rodriguez keeps his distance with effective kicks. Another body kick digs in for Rodriguez, and Stephens has lowered his right hand to defend this specific attack. Stephens ducks down possibly for a takedown, but after a little clinch fighting, the two separate. Rodriguez chooses to crash forward into the clinch again, landing a knee up the middle to get there. As Rodriguez slaps a low kick, Stephens rips a right hand to the body of his opponent. The Mexican pulls off a jumping switch kick that catches Stephens flush, but Stephens walks through it. As Stephens presses forward, Rodriguez drops him with a left jab, but cannot take advantage of his grounded adversary as Stephens returns to his feet. Two more kicks get off from Rodriguez, as Stephens chases him around and motions an obscene gesture to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
Rodriguez opens up round two with a spinning kick, but Stephens is able to get up his guard on time. The Mexican fighter then whips a head kick up top, but it is the body kick that follows that does serious damage and makes Stephens buckle over. As Stephens stumbles backwards, Rodriguez swarms him with punches, throwing everything he has into his punches. Stephens defends himself by pursuing a takedown, but Rodriguez is relentless with punches. "Lil' Heathen" is able to survive the assault by going after low takedowns, but Rodriguez walks over it and lands long punches. On his back, Stephens eats wild hammerfists but begins to throw punches while on his back. Rodriguez latches on a brabo choke, and Stephens is trying to roll out of it and survives the submission attempt but is still in grave danger. With pure willpower, Stephens stands back up and unleashes the hardest punches he can possibly throw on Rodriguez. Rodriguez dodges and weaves out of the way of most of these shots, and as Rodriguez catches Stephens to the body again with a kick, Stephens wraps Rodriguez and tries to take him down. Rodriguez rolls through to try to get out of the position but ends up on his back, with Stephens on top raining down punches. El Pantera throws up his legs to search for a triangle choke, and Stephens is not out of the woods yet. In more of a leg scissor choke than a triangle, Stephens breaks the posture and grinds his elbow on his opponent's face as Rodriguez is warned for grabbing the cage. Rodriguez gradually stands up, and Stephens punishes him with a salvo of punches. The Mexican eats several more shots as he finally gets to his feet, and whips a body kick out that backs away Stephens as this crazy round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 3
Stephens comes out threatening with big shots, and as Rodriguez throws a kick out to back him off, he catches Stephens in the groin with a kick. Stephens calls the ref off so that he can charge at Rodriguez, and he slings looping shots that score on Rodriguez and get the crowd amped up. Rodriguez tries to keep his distance with leg kicks, and Stephens catches him on the end of a right hand that Rodriguez wears well. Suddenly, Stephens drops for a double leg takedown and gets Rodriguez down, and although Rodriguez gets back up, Stephens makes sure to score with several punches on his way up. The two separate, but not for long, as Stephens rushes in to secure another takedown and lands in Rodriguez' guard. Rodriguez attempts to utilize a rubber guard to get hold of Stephens' neck, but Stephens pushes the leg off and tries to get his ground-and-pound going. It is quite unfortunate that this fight is only three rounds instead of five, as Stephens sits on top in half guard while throwing punches from above. Stephens continues to mount offense on top in the form of numerous left hands, and the American then decides to drop down elbows that get heavier the more he throws. A huge left hand from Stephens scores as he stands up and dives down to land it, and after some more thudding strikes, the fight is now over. In a display of great sportsmanship, the two embrace, both thrilled with their performances.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Rodriguez)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Stephens (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Stephens (28-28 Draw)

The Official Result
Yair Rodriguez def. Jeremy Stephens via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Patrício Pitbull - Fight History
LOSS vs Aaron Pico
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Patrício Pitbull 0 49 of 88 55% 49 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 100 of 181 55% 104 of 185 6 of 13 46% 0 0 3:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Patrício Pitbull 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 22 of 56 39% 25 of 59 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:47
2 Patrício Pitbull 0 19 of 33 57% 19 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 49 of 77 63% 49 of 77 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:41
3 Patrício Pitbull 0 13 of 27 48% 13 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 29 of 48 60% 30 of 49 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Patrício Pitbull 49 of 88 55% 28 of 60 14 of 19 7 of 9 37 of 76 12 of 12 0 of 0
Aaron Pico 100 of 181 55% 79 of 156 11 of 15 10 of 10 90 of 166 6 of 9 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Patrício Pitbull 17 of 28 60% 12 of 20 3 of 5 2 of 3 15 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0
Aaron Pico 22 of 56 39% 17 of 48 1 of 4 4 of 4 21 of 51 1 of 4 0 of 1
2 Patrício Pitbull 19 of 33 57% 11 of 25 4 of 4 4 of 4 16 of 30 3 of 3 0 of 0
Aaron Pico 49 of 77 63% 40 of 67 5 of 6 4 of 4 43 of 70 2 of 2 4 of 5
3 Patrício Pitbull 13 of 27 48% 5 of 15 7 of 10 1 of 2 6 of 20 7 of 7 0 of 0
Aaron Pico 29 of 48 60% 22 of 41 5 of 5 2 of 2 26 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Angelo confidently picks Aaron Pico, calling him bigger, faster, stronger, and better everywhere. He acknowledges Pitbull's legendary career but notes his age (39) and believes Pico should dominate. He suggests Pico should be a much heavier favorite, calling minus 300 good value.

"Aaron Pico is the pick. Minus 300, I would hop on that now. He should genuinely be minus five, six, seven, minus 800."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Big Brady is impressed with Pico's elite wrestling, power, and body work, but notes his durability issues (all losses inside the distance). He thinks Pitbull is dangerous but aging (38) and has shown vulnerability. He predicts Pico will get takedowns and ground-and-pound for a second-round TKO, though he dislikes the -300 price.

second round TKO
"I like Pico here to get it done... I'm going to go Pico to bounce back here and get a second round TKO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Cody passes on this fight, unable to trust Pico's chin at such a high price. He acknowledges the logic but cannot bring himself to bet on Pico.

"I don't think I could click it. I don't think I could click it because I would just hate myself too much if he gets stiffed on like an overhand right in round one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Connor picks Patrício based on his one-shot power and Pico's defensive vulnerability. He notes that Pico gets blindsided when hit and has no defensive awareness, while Patrício still has a quick, powerful shot. However, he acknowledges Patrício's decline in choosiness and hesitancy, which could give Pico early leash.

Odds too wide; Patrício opened +180 now +270, Pico opened -210 now -330
"I'm going to pick Patricio, but I, yeah, I cannot help, but acknowledge that the man does not have long left in the sport and Aaron Pico is super dangerous."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Daniel acknowledges Pico's chin issues but thinks his skill advantage is significant. He picks Pico but warns that Pitbull is a live dog if Pico is gunshy.

"I think as a pure pick, I'm going to go Pico. But from a betting perspective, this is a dog or pass situation."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Daniel Vreeland picks Aaron Pico, citing Pico's youth, size, and physicality. He believes Pico will crowd Pitbull and use his grappling to neutralize Pitbull's distance management. He acknowledges Pitbull's power and counter-striking but thinks age and weight cuts have slowed him down.

"I think Pico wins this and I think putting money on Pitbull is a perfectly fine situation at plus 265 given the situation, but I still think he loses."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

James picks Aaron Pico, expecting him to be more reserved after his knockout loss and use his superior boxing and wrestling to dominate Pitbull. He predicts a KO victory.

"I'm definitely picking Aaron here. I'm actually picking him via KO."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Pico should use his wrestling to neutralize Pitbull's power. Pitbull is dangerous but low output and older. Pico's wrestling is elite and he can grind out a decision. However, the line is too steep at -315; value is not there. Pico needs to be calm and avoid brawling. A wrestle-heavy approach should secure the win.

Pico wins by decision
"I'm looking for a wrestle heavy approach from Pico. ... I think Pico wins. I think he wins by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Paul picks Pico despite the high price, believing Pico's wrestling and athleticism will be key. He thinks Pico will use takedowns to neutralize Pitbull's power and grind out a decision.

"I'm taking Pico. I got Pico. It's the minus 300 Paul. Like, how much faith do you have in a guy that's constantly been a letdown?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

The MMA Guru picks Patrício Pitbull over Aaron Pico, despite Pico being a -300 favorite. He questions Pico's chin and notes he has been KO'd multiple times. He believes Pitbull is crafty and experienced, and can catch Pico late in the second or third round by TKO. He thinks the odds should be evens.

Odds comment: Pico at -300 is crazy, should be evens.
"I'm thinking Pitbull because I just seriously can't trust Aaron Pico to get hit flash on the chin."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Aaron Pico

Zane picks Pico despite his defensive flaws, citing Patrício's recent fragility and choosiness. He notes that Pico is an elite athlete who can roll downhill and that Patrício has been looking more fragile, getting iced early by Chihiro Suzuki. However, he admits Pico's defensive issues are stark and he doesn't feel good about the pick.

Odds too wide; Pico opened -210 now -330
"I'm going to take Pico here. I hate to do it, but I think you, you love to do it."
CANCEL vs Losene Keita
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Losene Keita

Angelo picks Losene Keita but advises against betting on him. He acknowledges Keita's speed, power, and takedown defense, but warns that Pitbull is a crafty veteran who could pull off an upset. He notes that many prospects have lost to old vets. He believes Keita's speed will be a problem for Pitbull's takedown entries, but calls it a risky fight and recommends leaving it alone.

do not bet
"I'm going to pick Ca here. ... I would not bet on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Losene Keita

Big Brady picks Losene Keita, citing Pitbull's age (38), declining durability, and low volume. He notes Keita is 11 years younger, pressures forward, and has power. He believes Pitbull has been hurt in his last five fights and will get knocked out here. He predicts a first-round KO.

Keita by knockout, round 1
"I think Kate knocks out Pitull here. I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Losene Keita

Connor picks Keita, citing his freakish speed and power, similar to Chihiro Suzuki who beat Pitbull. He notes that Pitbull's cautious, counter-punching style may not keep up with Keita's athleticism, and that Keita is a proven winner. He acknowledges that Pitbull could outmaneuver him, but sees Keita's physical advantages as decisive.

"I think I'm gonna pick Kate. Uh, I don't want to, I mean, I like you to, he's a fun fighter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Losene Keita

The host views Keita as a highly touted prospect who is very fast, powerful, and only 27 years old. He thinks Keita does everything Pitbull does but much better and at a younger age, allowing him to dictate the pace and eventually find a big knockout.

KO
"I think he does everything that Pit Bull does, but much better and at a younger age. And I think that will allow Ka to really dictate the pace of this fight and eventually find that big knockout to put …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

The Guru picks Patrício Pitbull, despite concerns about age and size. He criticizes Keita's limited offense (straight right hands and rear kicks) and believes Pitbull's experience and jiu-jitsu will be key. He predicts Pitbull will secure takedowns, take the back, and win by submission (rear-naked choke) or decision. He also notes Keita's UFC debut jitters.

over 1.5 takedowns for Pitbull (from PrizePicks segment)
"I'm going to go with Patricio Pitbull. He just beat Dan Eay. I thought he won the fight very clear."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Zane picks Pitbull, believing his experience and technical savvy can outfox the raw but fast Keita. He notes that Keita leaves openings and is susceptible to takedowns, and that Pitbull can neutralize him. However, he acknowledges that Keita's speed and power make it a trap fight, and that Pitbull may gas or get caught.

"Who I'm going to pick. Cause, but you know, I laid it out. It might all go disastrously wrong in just one moment."
WIN vs Dan Ige
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Patrício Pitbull 0 47 of 124 37% 59 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Dan Ige 0 55 of 97 56% 71 of 114 5 of 9 55% 0 0 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Patrício Pitbull 0 6 of 28 21% 10 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dan Ige 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:03
2 Patrício Pitbull 0 19 of 51 37% 19 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dan Ige 0 37 of 58 63% 47 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
3 Patrício Pitbull 0 22 of 45 48% 30 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Dan Ige 0 11 of 26 42% 17 of 33 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:46
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Patrício Pitbull 47 of 124 37% 24 of 93 15 of 23 8 of 8 38 of 109 3 of 5 6 of 10
Dan Ige 55 of 97 56% 42 of 82 9 of 10 4 of 5 42 of 82 9 of 11 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Patrício Pitbull 6 of 28 21% 1 of 21 2 of 4 3 of 3 6 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
Dan Ige 7 of 13 53% 2 of 8 2 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Patrício Pitbull 19 of 51 37% 10 of 38 6 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 48 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dan Ige 37 of 58 63% 30 of 50 6 of 6 1 of 2 25 of 45 8 of 9 4 of 4
3 Patrício Pitbull 22 of 45 48% 13 of 34 7 of 9 2 of 2 15 of 34 1 of 1 6 of 10
Dan Ige 11 of 26 42% 10 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Angelo picks Dan Ige, calling him a tough, durable journeyman who has fought top competition in the UFC. He is wary of the Patricio Pitbull trap after Pitbull's loss in his UFC debut. He thinks Ige's will and determination will carry him, but he won't bet on it.

Says he'll stay away from this one betting wise.
"Dan Eay is going to be the pick just off of raw will and determination."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Big Brady picks Dan Ige, citing Pitbull's age (38), declining durability, low volume, and lack of wrestling. He notes Ige has advantages in size, reach, volume, durability, and competition level. He predicts Ige wins by knockout, as Pitbull has been dropped recently.

Ige by knockout
"I got to go Eay here. ... I think Eay could potentially even knock out Pitle."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Connor believes Pitbull's patient counterpunching style is a great matchup against Ige, who tends to rush in and make mistakes. He notes that Ige lacks a range game and often gets hit while coming forward, which plays into Pitbull's strengths. He sees Pitbull capitalizing on Ige's aggression with counters and takedowns.

"This is a forgiving bounce back that will still make Pitbull look elite."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The host believes Ige's volume output and ability to manage distance and pace will be key to shutting down Pitbull's power striking. He expects Ige to have a competitive first round but then chip away and win on the scorecards.

"Look for Eay to have a competitive first round, but really start chipping away at pitbull and showcasing that he's winning and inching out each round here and winning it on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige over Patrício Pitbull, predicting a KO win. He criticizes Pitbull as a jack-of-all-trades but master of none, lacking dominant grappling or KO power. Ige is described as a short, stocky power puncher who can crack on the inside, similar to Michael Chandler who knocked out Pitbull. The Guru also references Pitbull's poor performance against Yair Rodriguez and believes Ige will put him away. He notes that Ige is a slight favorite and should be a bigger favorite.

Ige is a slight favorite and should be bigger (odds comment)
"I'm going with Dan Eay over Patriceio Pitbull."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Zane agrees, stating that Ige's style of rushing forward with flurries is exactly what Pitbull thrives against. He notes that Ige's lack of a range game and tendency to get hit while pressing forward will allow Pitbull to land counters and control the fight. He sees this as a much better matchup for Pitbull than the Yair Rodriguez fight.

"Dan Ige may in fact be the best matchup for him in the division."
LOSS vs Yair Rodríguez
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 1 70 of 122 57% 97 of 157 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:43
Patrício Pitbull 0 17 of 50 34% 23 of 60 1 of 4 25% 1 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 11 of 21 52% 26 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patrício Pitbull 0 4 of 10 40% 5 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 21 of 45 46% 25 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:02
Patrício Pitbull 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:28
3 Yair Rodríguez 1 38 of 56 67% 46 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Patrício Pitbull 0 5 of 14 35% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 70 of 122 57% 38 of 82 18 of 23 14 of 17 43 of 89 2 of 2 25 of 31
Patrício Pitbull 17 of 50 34% 8 of 38 2 of 4 7 of 8 17 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 11 of 21 52% 3 of 10 4 of 5 4 of 6 10 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patrício Pitbull 4 of 10 40% 0 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 4 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Yair Rodríguez 21 of 45 46% 8 of 28 6 of 9 7 of 8 20 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patrício Pitbull 8 of 26 30% 5 of 21 1 of 2 2 of 3 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Yair Rodríguez 38 of 56 67% 27 of 44 8 of 9 3 of 3 13 of 25 0 of 0 25 of 31
Patrício Pitbull 5 of 14 35% 3 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Connor picks Rodríguez, echoing Zane's reasoning about Pitbull's vulnerability to aggressive strikers. He notes that Pitbull has struggled against fighters who pressure him early and that Rodríguez's length and kicking game pose unique problems. Connor acknowledges Pitbull's experience and ability to adjust between fights but believes Rodríguez's style is a bad matchup for the current version of Pitbull.

"I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez. I think I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez too."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Yair Rodríguez

Daniel Levi states that Yair Rodríguez schooled Patrício Pitbull, being much faster and more dynamic, and was a couple steps ahead all night. He notes that Pitbull looked shopworn and didn't shine in the big moment.

"Yaya Rodriguez just schooled Patricio Pitu and you know on tape it was there but sometimes you hold out hope that these legends are going to have you know they're going to shine bright in a big moment like that …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Lucrative James picks Patrício Pitbull to win, citing his experience, grappling advantage, and power. He believes Pitbull's wrestling and top control will be key, and he expects him to submit or ground-and-pound Rodríguez. He acknowledges Rodríguez's flashy kicks and danger but thinks Pitbull's cerebral style and veteran savvy will prevail. He notes that Pitbull is 37 and may be past his prime, but he still sees him as the better fighter overall. He also thinks the UFC is setting Pitbull up for a win to inject new blood into the division.

He predicts Pitbull wins inside the distance, possibly via submission or ground and pound.
"I'm predicting Patricio Pitbull to get the win on Yay Rodriguez. And I'm actually predicting him to get the win inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Zane picks Rodríguez, citing Pitbull's history of losing to aggressive, high-output fighters who take the initiative early. He notes that Pitbull has become a patient counter-puncher, which plays into Rodríguez's strengths as a long-range striker with dynamic kicks. Zane points to Pitbull's recent loss to Chihiro Suzuki as evidence that he can be overwhelmed by a powerful, wild striker. He acknowledges Pitbull's grappling and experience but believes Rodríguez's reach and willingness to attack from distance will be decisive.

"I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez. I think I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez too."
Expert Picks (4)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Connor picks Rodríguez, echoing Zane's reasoning about Pitbull's vulnerability to aggressive strikers. He notes that Pitbull has struggled against fighters who pressure him early and that Rodríguez's length and kicking game pose unique problems. Connor acknowledges Pitbull's experience and ability to adjust between fights but believes Rodríguez's style is a bad matchup for the current version of Pitbull.

"I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez. I think I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez too."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Yair Rodríguez

Daniel Levi states that Yair Rodríguez schooled Patrício Pitbull, being much faster and more dynamic, and was a couple steps ahead all night. He notes that Pitbull looked shopworn and didn't shine in the big moment.

"Yaya Rodriguez just schooled Patricio Pitu and you know on tape it was there but sometimes you hold out hope that these legends are going to have you know they're going to shine bright in a big moment like that and he just didn't."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Lucrative James picks Patrício Pitbull to win, citing his experience, grappling advantage, and power. He believes Pitbull's wrestling and top control will be key, and he expects him to submit or ground-and-pound Rodríguez. He acknowledges Rodríguez's flashy kicks and danger but thinks Pitbull's cerebral style and veteran savvy will prevail. He notes that Pitbull is 37 and may be past his prime, but he still sees him as the better fighter overall. He also thinks the UFC is setting Pitbull up for a win to inject new blood into the division.

He predicts Pitbull wins inside the distance, possibly via submission or ground and pound.
"I'm predicting Patricio Pitbull to get the win on Yay Rodriguez. And I'm actually predicting him to get the win inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Zane picks Rodríguez, citing Pitbull's history of losing to aggressive, high-output fighters who take the initiative early. He notes that Pitbull has become a patient counter-puncher, which plays into Rodríguez's strengths as a long-range striker with dynamic kicks. Zane points to Pitbull's recent loss to Chihiro Suzuki as evidence that he can be overwhelmed by a powerful, wild striker. He acknowledges Pitbull's grappling and experience but believes Rodríguez's reach and willingness to attack from distance will be decisive.

"I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez. I think I'm picking Yaya Rodriguez too."
Comments (1)
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Pitbull nearly snapped an arm bar last min. Yair was dirty in certain spots. The headkick on Pit should have been the KO, no idea how Pit eats it.