Career Averages - Michael Chandler
Career Averages - Paddy Pimblett
Michael Chandler
Paddy Pimblett
Michael Chandler - Fight History
AJ does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 11 of 28 | 39% | 20 of 39 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 80 of 143 | 55% | 121 of 197 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 4:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chandler | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 7 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:10 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 25 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Chandler | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 11 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 34 of 63 | 53% | 49 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:15 | |
| 3 | Michael Chandler | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 30 of 40 | 75% | 47 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chandler | 11 of 28 | 39% | 6 of 18 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 80 of 143 | 55% | 61 of 119 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 19 | 43 of 96 | 4 of 5 | 33 of 42 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chandler | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 16 of 40 | 40% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 10 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Chandler | 5 of 14 | 35% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 34 of 63 | 53% | 26 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 9 | 19 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 17 | |
| 3 | Michael Chandler | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 30 of 40 | 75% | 28 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 25 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pimblett (-148), Chandler (+124)
Round 1
With plenty of bluster and hoopla surrounding the match, Chandler (23-9, 2-4 UFC) vs. Pimblett (22-3, 6-0 UFC) has now arrived. Perhaps unexpectedly, the Liverpudlian has a second home in Miami even though Chandler trains in Deerfield Beach, not far north from there. Far from a prototypical striker vs. grappler matchup, this fight could end up anywhere. Because of that, referee Kerry Hatley has his running shoes laced up and ready to follow the lightweights wherever they may roam. Before the two get down to their non-title five-round pairing, they decide to touch gloves after all. Pimblett paws out a jab and a low kick to take advantage of his reach, and he hammers the front leg with two more kicks. Chandler’s leg is already welted less than a minute in, and Pimblett jams him to the body with a teep kick. Pimblett lashes out with another low kick, and Chandler ducks down and swings for the fences with a right hand. Pimblett darts out of the way and dings Chandler with an uppercut. Chandler tries to take the fight down, and Pimblett grabs the fence to prevent it. A second effort, where Chandler lifts “The Baddy” in the air to slam him down, results in a successful takedown. Chandler hangs on from behind, wrapping up his arms on the waist. Pimblett gets to a knee and hacks at Chandler without looking, elbowing “Iron Mike” on the nose. Pimblett threatens with a kimura, and Chandler lowers Pimblett down and hammers him in the face with a right hand to release the sub grip. Chandler imposes his weight on the former Cage Warriors fighter, and Pimblett suddenly jumps for a flying triangle choke. He succeeds in dragging Chandler to the floor, but there is no chance of him getting the choke as Chandler bucks out of it and resets. Pimblett follows him and slugs him in the face with a right hand, and his low kick right after it further damages his opponent. Chandler connects with a clean right, and Pimblett kicks him in the same spot on the front leg once more. Pimblett comes up short with a right hand, and he skips it off the shoulder when firing again. Chandler slips when backpedaling, just getting out of the way from two looping punches. Chandler sits down on a hard left, and Pimblett goes not flinch and instead throws back with a heavy right hand. Pimblett runs at him to keep attacking, forcing Chandler to ricochet off the fencing as time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Round 2
The fighters high-five to get going again, and Pimblett reintroduces himself with a snappy jab. Chandler reddens his foe’s nose with his own jab, and he ducks down to evade the counter. Chandler walks into a few body shots, with Pimblett fighting smartly behind his jab. He strings a few punches together to make Chandler back off and regather himself, and he dings Chandler with a left hook and a leg kick. Chandler kicks him back, and he retreats to block a head kick. Chandler’s leg is getting beaten up from kicks, and Pimblett walks him down and jabs him up. Pimblett gets off a head kick that bangs into the neck, and he lands a low kick and three punches to follow. Chandler backs off, wipes his hand, and they kick at the same time. Pimblett groans as he takes the kick flush on the cup, and Hatley calls time. Pimblett calls Chandler a cheater, and they decide to high-five a couple times to bury any beef. Chandler shoots in for takedown when they restart, and Pimblett shuts it down and boots Chandler upside the head. Chandler counters with two hooks and a takedown shot, and he elects to lift Pimblett in the air and dump him to the ground. Pimblett works to a knee and upright, not allowing Chandler to control him, and he lets go more elbows on the face. Chandler hurls him to the mat again and takes his back, and he is too high and falls off the back. Pimblett asserts himself in top position, stepping into half guard and fastening up an arm-triangle choke. The Brit steps to the side while still holding the choke setup, and he looks to step into mount or otherwise advance to a dominant position. Pimblett lets go of the grip to hack down with elbows, and Chandler explodes only to give up his back. Pimblett gets a hook in and bowls Chandler over, where he proceeds to leap into mount and lash out with elbows. Chandler spins around, his back still taken, and Pimblett wraps the body triangle around his waist. Pimblett smacks the former Bellator champ upside the head, and he prevents Chandler from turning with his body lock. Pimblett lumps Chandler up with a few 12-to-6 elbows as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Round 3
Ice is spilled in Chandler’s corner, and commentator Joe Rogan does not freak out. Hatley has to use a towel to clean the area, and the fighters re-engage when he says fight. Chandler ducks in to punch, and he walks face-first into a destructive knee that splits his cheek wide open. Pimblett rushes after him, and Chandler explodes with a huge right hand. Pimblett measures his options, and he decides to lift the former Bellator great in the air and throw him down. Pimblett immediately assumes back control, getting one hook in, and Chandler looks to his team for answers. Pimblett elbows a few times, landing one on the back of the head, and Hatley warns him for the foul. Chandler keeps swaying and moving to recover, and Pimblett goes for a rear-naked choke grip. When Pimblett releases it, he slashes down with elbows to target the large cut on Chandler’s cheek. Pimblett nails Chandler with another elbow, and he shifts into mount and keeps attacking. Chandler turns through to not get caught in a choke, and blood pours down his face. Pimblett postures up to rain down elbows and punches, and Hatley is watching closely. Pimblett rains down elbows and punches, unleashing one last hellacious salvo of offense that makes Hatley say enough is enough. “The Baddy” dismounts his defeated foe, and he shouts to the camera, “What now?” Chandler returns to his feet, and he is ushered out of the cage to seek immediate medical attention, in part due to the substantial gash on his cheek. Happy as a claim, the victorious Pimblett dances around, and he brushes his face to indicate that he did not take any damage while throwing down with the heavy-handed Chandler.
The Official Result
Paddy Pimblett def. Michael Chandler R3 3:07 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
Connor picks Chandler, arguing that despite Chandler's recent losses, he remains a powerful wrestler and striker who has hurt every opponent he's faced. He notes that Pimblett's cardio is suspect and that Chandler's functional aggression in later rounds could be decisive. Connor believes Pimblett's striking has improved only in that he makes fewer mistakes, but he still lacks the tools to handle Chandler's pressure and power. He sees Chandler's wrestling as a key advantage, even if Chandler's technique has declined.
Daniel Levi notes that Paddy Pimblett destroyed Michael Chandler, outstriking him 8 to 1 and winning by TKO via elbows in round three. He calls it one of the best bets of the year at minus 150. He believes the market hasn't caught up on Pimblett yet, offering value.
Lucrative James picks Paddy Pimblett to win, citing Chandler's volatility and potential decline. He notes that Chandler has been out of the octagon for two years waiting for Conor McGregor, which may have aged him. He believes Pimblett has better durability, range control, and fight IQ. He expects Pimblett to find a submission, possibly a guillotine, as the fight progresses. He acknowledges Chandler's power and wrestling but thinks Pimblett can weather the early storm and take over.
Zane picks Pimblett, but hesitantly, because he sees Chandler as prone to creating scrambles and giving up his back, which is Pimblett's strength. He notes that Chandler is a powerful wrestler but has been reckless and hittable, and that Pimblett's submission game could capitalize on Chandler's tendency to get into messy positions. Zane acknowledges that Chandler has the tools to win and that this should be a bridge too far for Pimblett, but he feels Chandler's willingness to engage in chaos favors Pimblett.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 88 of 122 | 72% | 117 of 153 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 2 | 0 | 14:52 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 84 of 113 | 74% | 150 of 181 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 18 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 8 of 9 | 88% | 35 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 24 of 35 | 68% | 27 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 15 of 22 | 68% | 38 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 27 of 36 | 75% | 41 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 3:11 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 14 of 18 | 77% | 15 of 19 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 17 | 70% | 16 of 21 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 40 of 47 | 85% | 52 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 88 of 122 | 72% | 56 of 82 | 18 of 25 | 14 of 15 | 67 of 98 | 3 of 5 | 18 of 19 |
| Michael Chandler | 84 of 113 | 74% | 59 of 85 | 16 of 18 | 9 of 10 | 60 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 24 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 11 of 16 | 68% | 4 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chandler | 8 of 9 | 88% | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 24 of 35 | 68% | 19 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 13 |
| Michael Chandler | 15 of 22 | 68% | 11 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Charles Oliveira | 27 of 36 | 75% | 21 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 28 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 |
| Michael Chandler | 13 of 19 | 68% | 8 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Charles Oliveira | 14 of 18 | 77% | 7 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Michael Chandler | 8 of 16 | 50% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Charles Oliveira | 12 of 17 | 70% | 5 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chandler | 40 of 47 | 85% | 30 of 36 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 24 |
Angelo picks Charles Oliveira but is hesitant. He acknowledges Chandler's incredible shape and the possibility of a smart game plan, but trusts Oliveira's well-rounded game and the fact that he already beat Chandler. He warns against putting Oliveira in parlays due to the uncertainty.
Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira by second-round submission. He expects Chandler to hurt Oliveira early, as he often gets dropped, but believes Oliveira's heart and durability will carry him through. He notes that Chandler fades in later rounds and has poor submission defense, as seen against Dustin Poirier. He predicts Oliveira will survive the first round and submit Chandler in the second.
Cody picks Charles Oliveira, expecting him to weather Chandler's early storm and finish him in the second round. He notes Chandler's athletic but low-volume style leads to gassing, and Oliveira is a zombie who fights better after getting dropped. Cody predicts Oliveira by submission or knockout inside the distance, likely by submission.
Connor also picks Oliveira but with hesitation, noting that Chandler has the power to knock him out and that Oliveira's chin may be fading. He points out that Oliveira's comeback ability is key, but Chandler's aggression could overwhelm him. Connor thinks Oliveira's submission threat and durability give him the edge, but it's a toss-up.
Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Oliveira, arguing that Chandler redlines early and if he doesn't finish Oliveira, Oliveira will come back and finish him. He highlights Oliveira's calf kicks, submission threats off his back, and ability to extend his records. He notes Chandler's tendency to fade and make mistakes, as seen in the Poirier fight.
Vreeland picks Oliveira because Chandler has a long layoff and was preparing for Conor McGregor, a completely different fighter. He notes that even in their first fight, Chandler's early success faded as he walked into punches and submissions. Vreeland believes Chandler will be rusty and Oliveira's durability and ground game will be too much.
Fox picks Oliveira, noting that Chandler's UFC record is poor (2-3) and he has been inactive. He believes Oliveira is better in all aspects at this point and that Chandler's obsession with McGregor hurt his preparation. Fox is confident Oliveira wins.
Lucrative James picks Charles Oliveira to win but is hesitant, noting the line (-275) may be too wide. He acknowledges Chandler's power and explosivity, and that Chandler almost finished Oliveira in their first fight. However, he believes Oliveira has more tools—better striking at all ranges, brutal clinch work, and superior submission grappling—and a better gas tank for five rounds. He also mentions Chandler's fragile chin and tendency to get hurt, but admits Chandler has a good shot and the odds (+225) are disrespectful.
The host recalls Chandler's success in the first round of their first fight, getting two 10-8s, but ultimately getting knocked out early in the second. He believes Oliveira still holds all the advantages but can be touched up. He loves the under 1.5 rounds and leans Oliveira, but notes Chandler as an underdog above +200 is worth considering.
Paul picks Charles Oliveira, noting Chandler's two-year layoff and 1-3 record in his last four. He expects Chandler to have a good first round but fade, and Oliveira to find a finish. Paul mentions the gloves change might affect submissions but still likes Oliveira inside the distance, possibly by submission or knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira, predicting a rear-naked choke in the first or second round. He believes Chandler makes too many mistakes and that Oliveira will catch a kick and take him down. He notes Chandler's inactivity and age as factors.
Zane picks Oliveira but is hesitant, acknowledging that Chandler could easily knock him out. He notes that Oliveira's style is high-risk and he often gets hurt before recovering, and that Chandler's power and aggression make this a dangerous fight. Zane believes Oliveira's durability and ability to find submissions will prevail, but it's not a confident pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 38 of 76 | 50% | 63 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 43 of 100 | 43% | 65 of 135 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 5:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Poirier | 0 | 28 of 57 | 49% | 31 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 23 of 69 | 33% | 24 of 73 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 | |
| 2 | Dustin Poirier | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 23 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 18 of 25 | 72% | 39 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:34 | |
| 3 | Dustin Poirier | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | 38 of 76 | 50% | 34 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 32 of 66 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 6 |
| Michael Chandler | 43 of 100 | 43% | 32 of 80 | 10 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 25 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Poirier | 28 of 57 | 49% | 25 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 25 of 53 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chandler | 23 of 69 | 33% | 16 of 54 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 3 | 21 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Dustin Poirier | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chandler | 18 of 25 | 72% | 16 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 21 | |
| 3 | Dustin Poirier | 8 of 16 | 50% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 |
| Michael Chandler | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Poirier (-210), Chandler (+180)
Round 1
Two of the lightweight division’s best action fighters are set to square off, and both Poirier and Chandler are hoping to get back in the championship picture after recent losses in title bouts. Dan Miragliotta is the third man in the cage. Chandler misses on a big low kick. Poirier misses his first leg kick too, and Chandler answers with a right hand. Chandler comes forward and lands a hard body kick. Chandler shoots and Poirier shucks him off. Poirier jabs the body. Chandler has a leg kick checked. Chandler pressures with punches and front kicks, but Poirier defnds well. Moments later, a right lands clean for Chandler, and Poirier is on the defensive. Chandler lands some heavy shots with his foe’s back to the fence. Poirier gets off the fence and they’re back in the center of the cage. Chandler is swinging heavy leather as usual. A crisp right connects for Poirier. They collide heads and Chandler tees off with right hands. he backs Poirier into the fence and continues to land power punches. Poirier looks hurt and Chandler takes him down near the fence. Chandler thinks about a kimura, but Poirier scoots to the fence. Chandler almost jumps on the back as Poirier works his way up. Chandler has a body lock and he gets Poirier down once, then follows with a suplex. Poirier is right back up, and he’s moving forward with punches now. They’re trading, and it’s Poirier who buckles his man with a right. Poirer goes on the attack, and he’s unloading on a reeling Chandler near the fence as time runs out. Chandler, whose face is battered and bloodied, may have been saved by the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Poirier
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Poirier
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Poirier
Round 2
Poirier sticks a jab at the outset. Chandler presses forward with a body-head combo followed by a kick. That sets up a high amplitude takedown, and now Chandler is in Poirier’s closed guard. Poirier lands elbows from his back. Chandler is leaking blood from his nose, and it’s getting all over Poirier. Poirier is framing a triangle, but Chandler passes and takes the back. Chandler attempts to get his left arm under the chin, but Poirier defends well. Chandler gets both hooks in and continues to hunt for the choke. Chandler is too high and the choke isn’t under the neck, but he is winning the round at this point. Chandler continues to hold a dominant position, but Poirier is able to turn and get his back to the cage. Poirier has full guard and he frames a kimura. Chandler makes him eat a big right and he gives up on that. Chandler switches to hammerfists and Miragliotta warns him for landing blows to the back of the head. Chandler relents and he traps the wrist of Poirier while landing solid right hands to the head. Chandler stays heavy on top as the round draws to a close, and he’ll end a dominant frame in top position.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chandler
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chandler
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chandler
Round 3
Poirier attacks the lead leg of Chandler. Poirier with a straight left. Chandler blocks a head kick and then is denied on a half-hearted takedown. Chandler pressures behind a combination and changes levels. He gets a high crotch and lifts Poirier for a slam, only to see Poirier scramble into top position on the deposit. From there, Poirier transitions to the back of his opponent. Poirier has a body triangle secured with Chandler still on his knees in the center of the Octagon. Poirier locks in a rear-naked choke and falls back to the canvas, drapping his adversary with him. Poirier’s arm is under the chin and the squeeze is tight. Chandler has no choice but to tap in a matter of seconds.
The Official Result
Dustin Poirier def. Michael Chandler via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R3 2:00
Angelo acknowledges Chandler's power and wrestling but does not trust him to fight to win rather than slug it out. He believes Poirier is the smarter, more composed fighter focused on winning a title. He picks Poirier because Chandler cannot be trusted to try to win, though he expects an exciting fight.
Big Brady picks Dustin Poirier to win by knockout in the second round. He believes Poirier is the better technical striker with better cardio, and that Chandler's chin is questionable after taking damage. He compares it to Chandler's fight with Gaethje, but notes Poirier has more power and better cardio. He expects a stand-up war with no takedowns, and that Chandler will slow down as the fight goes on.
Cody picks Michael Chandler as a plus money underdog, expecting chaos in the fight. He notes that both fighters will eat massive shots and that Chandler has a legitimate chance on any given night due to his athleticism, wrestling, and power. Cody believes Chandler's willingness to throw down and his durability make him live at the plus price, and he sees the fight as a 50/50 proposition.
Daniel Levi picks Dustin Poirier to knock out Michael Chandler, citing Poirier's volume, knockout power, and finishing ability when he smells blood. He notes that Chandler is susceptible to calf kicks and tends to get wild, which could lead to a straight left from Poirier. Levi respects Chandler's explosiveness and D1 wrestling but believes Poirier's experience and the 'Poirier Blitz' will be the difference. He mentions that he wanted to bet Poirier but missed the line at -175, so he is passing on a bet. He also discusses the danger of Chandler's one-punch power and the potential for a first-round knockout from either side.
The host sees Poirier as the better technical striker and believes his discipline will keep him out of trouble. He acknowledges Chandler's power and speed but thinks Poirier will outbox him and potentially get a late KO. He notes the line at -210 is a bit wide but still picks Poirier. He expects knockdowns and a possible finish from Poirier.
Paul picks Dustin Poirier by TKO, believing Poirier's boxing combinations and durability will be the difference. He notes that Chandler has durability issues and has been knocked out before, and that Poirier's pressure and volume will break Chandler down. Paul also mentions that Poirier is highly motivated and looks good in training, and that Chandler's recklessness could lead to him getting caught. He prefers the Poirier by TKO prop at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Dustin Poirier, emphasizing Chandler's tendency to get hit and Poirier's granite chin and experience against elite competition. He believes Poirier will trade in the pocket and finish Chandler with a first-round TKO, noting that Chandler only shoots takedowns when hurt and may gas from wrestling. He references Chandler's struggles against Ferguson on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chandler | 1 | 27 of 53 | 50% | 43 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:31 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 27 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chandler | 0 | 26 of 52 | 50% | 42 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 27 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Chandler | 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chandler | 27 of 53 | 50% | 15 of 39 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 |
| Tony Ferguson | 20 of 50 | 40% | 13 of 38 | 2 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chandler | 26 of 52 | 50% | 14 of 38 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 |
| Tony Ferguson | 20 of 50 | 40% | 13 of 38 | 2 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | |
| 2 | Michael Chandler | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chandler (-380), Ferguson (+290)
Round 1
At one time, Ferguson (25-6, 15-4 UFC) had amassed an outstanding 12-fight win streak, where he claimed the interim title at one point, but he has fallen on hard times the last few years. On a three-fight skid, “El Cucuy” is at a crossroads at the age of 38, and he will take on hard-charging, granite-chinned Chandler (22-7, 1-2 UFC) in a match that still holds significance at 155 pounds. Referee Jason Herzog may have his hands full depending on how this battle plays out, and these two hope to bring out a firefight while not bothering to touch gloves. Ferguson reaches out with a low kick to see how far he can reach, and Chandler picks his leg up and scoots back. Ferguson arcs out a standing elbow, expecting Chandler to come at him, but Chandler does not oblige. Ferguson’s front kick brushes pass Chandler’s hand, and Chandler chops down the leg with a pair of heavy kicks. Chandler just misses with a left hook, and Ferguson meets him in the middle with his own left. Ferguson clips the former Bellator champ with a left hand, and he kicks high and stings Chandler. Ferguson hurts him again with a few punches, and he backs Chandler up to the wall. Ferguson does not go wild, instead working the body and getting caught with a left hand. They trade heavily and both connect and get the other’s attention, and it is Ferguson that lands the flusher strikes and backs Chandler off. Chandler throws a leg kick, only to get countered over the top. Blasting through with a double, “Iron Mike” knocks Ferguson clean off his feet with a tackling takedown, and Ferguson kicks off the fence and slashes with elbows off his back to open a cut on Chandler’s head. Ferguson cleverly holds on to Chandler with his feet on his hips, and he pushes Chandler off and nearly flips his man over as he keeps a high guard and attempts to hook up an omoplata. Ferguson snatches hold of a triangle choke until Chandler blasts him in the face, and he loads up on several punches to make Ferguson readjust his attempts at submission. Ferguson protests that Chandler is lowering his head down and clacking him in the face with his forehead, and Herzog warns Ferguson for grabbing the fence. Ferguson turns and nearly sweeps, but Chandler deftly remains on top and gets off some short ground-and-pound. Ferguson hacks with elbows off his back, and the blood from Chandler is leaking down into Ferguson’s eyes. Chandler looses a few punches and cuts Ferguson’s right eye, and the thrilling round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ferguson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ferguson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferguson
Round 2
Between rounds, Chandler’s right eye swells up substantially, but he does not appear remotely concerned about it as the round opens up. Before Ferguson can throw a single punch, Chandler summons all of his strength and calls on the legends of Anderson Silva and Lyoto Machida to empower his right leg. In the most spectacular move tonight by a landslide, Chandler smashes the ball of his foot into Ferguson’s chin, and the light fades from Ferguson’s eyes in an instant. “El Cucuy” topples over, completely unconscious, and he slumps over on his face and is communing with his ancestors. Chandler celebrates, knowing there is nothing left for him to do today, and he hits several back flips in rapid succession, sticking the landing for each and every one. The video cuts to Molly McCann and Paddy Pimblett in the crowd, and appropriately so, as this knockout might have topped her incredible spinning back elbow earlier this year with the cleanest front kick knockout you will ever see. As Chandler is with his team, Ferguson is still out, but he finally manages to come around to the delight of everyone in the building. What an incredible knockout, one that will stand on highlight reels for years to come. Absolutely amazing. To top it off, Chandler calls for a fight with Conor McGregor in his post-fight interview, but good luck getting “Notorious” to take that fight after witnessing that astounding knockout.
The Official Result
Michael Chandler def. Tony Ferguson R2 0:17 via KO (Front Kick)
Angelo picks Michael Chandler, stating that everything Tony Ferguson does well, Chandler does better. He believes Chandler's chin has held up after the Gaethje war and expects a war similar to Chandler's last fight. He notes that Ferguson may not be the same after the Gaethje loss.
Big Brady picks Michael Chandler to win by decision. He notes that the blueprint to beat Ferguson is to take him down and control him, as Oliveira and Dariush did. However, Chandler is more of a striker and may not follow that blueprint. Brady thinks Chandler's power and wrestling could still get the job done, and he expects Chandler to mix in takedowns and win minutes on top. He is not laying -400 on Chandler but believes he will cruise to a decision. He acknowledges Ferguson's toughness and danger on the feet but thinks Chandler is closer to his prime.
Cody picks Michael Chandler but also dislikes the -380 price. He provides a detailed breakdown of Ferguson's decline, noting that Ferguson hasn't looked good in years, even in wins. Cody points out that Ferguson's game hasn't evolved, he trains alone, and his unorthodox style is no longer effective. He believes Chandler's wrestling and power will be too much, and that Chandler can take Ferguson's best shots. Cody expects Chandler to dominate early and possibly knock Ferguson out, but acknowledges Ferguson could win 3 out of 10 times.
Daniel Levi picks Michael Chandler confidently, though he does not bet the fight due to the high price. He notes Chandler's first-round explosiveness and wrestling fallback, while Ferguson has declined significantly, losing 11 straight rounds. He thinks Chandler's speed and power are too much for this version of Ferguson, but he is not interested in laying -425. He passes on betting entirely.
The host picks Michael Chandler to win by first-round knockout. He questions Chandler's wrestling approach, expecting him to stand and trade. He notes Ferguson's unorthodox style and durability, but believes Chandler's power will find the chin early. He is not betting Chandler at -400, but likes 'fight doesn't go to decision' at -180 and Ferguson submission at +750 as small shots. He acknowledges Ferguson's crafty jiu-jitsu and Chandler's history of being knocked out.
Paul picks Michael Chandler to win but is not confident at -380. He thinks Ferguson is washed and that Chandler will dominate early, possibly getting a finish. However, Paul is more interested in the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +150, citing Ferguson's durability. He notes that Ferguson has only been knocked out once (by Gaethje) and is tough to finish, so the decision prop offers value.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chandler by first-round KO, believing Tony Ferguson is done. He argues Ferguson's ground game is overrated and that Chandler can take him down or KO him. He notes Chandler's speed and leg kicks, and that Ferguson's chin is up in the air. He thinks Chandler will slip inside Ferguson's jab and land a big right hand. He also mentions Chandler has more to fight for, including a potential McGregor fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 1 | 116 of 183 | 63% | 133 of 205 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 103 of 245 | 42% | 104 of 246 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 40 of 77 | 51% | 41 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 49 of 99 | 49% | 50 of 100 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 1 | 38 of 60 | 63% | 51 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 24 of 69 | 34% | 24 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 38 of 46 | 82% | 41 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 30 of 77 | 38% | 30 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 116 of 183 | 63% | 83 of 143 | 7 of 12 | 26 of 28 | 102 of 164 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 14 |
| Michael Chandler | 103 of 245 | 42% | 64 of 199 | 28 of 35 | 11 of 11 | 99 of 241 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 40 of 77 | 51% | 27 of 58 | 3 of 7 | 10 of 12 | 36 of 73 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Chandler | 49 of 99 | 49% | 35 of 85 | 7 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 46 of 96 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 38 of 60 | 63% | 29 of 51 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 7 | 30 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 |
| Michael Chandler | 24 of 69 | 34% | 11 of 51 | 10 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 38 of 46 | 82% | 27 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 36 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Chandler | 30 of 77 | 38% | 18 of 63 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Strap in, fight fans, the “Just Bleed” fight of the year is upon us: Gaethje (22-3, 5-3 UFC) and Chandler (22-6, 1-1 UFC) are about to throw down. Referee Mike Beltran doesn’t know what to do with his hands, he’s so excited for what is about to happen before our very eyes. Needing no further introduction, the lightweights touch gloves and come out swinging. Gaethje opens with a leg kick, and Chandler is right there to throw bombs. Another successful leg kick for Gaethje scores, and Chandler is aiming his left hook. The leg kick continues to do damage for Gaethje, who rolls from the power punches and measures his own right. Gaethje scores a right hook, ducks a right hand counter and scores a heavy leg kick. They both start throwing caution to the wind, and they start slamming their fists into one another’s chins just as everyone had hoped. Chandler starts getting off his own leg kicks to surprise Gaethje, and these two are throwing everything they have in their punches. There is no feeling-out process, and even Chandler’s jab is a power punch. Gaethje walks through a huge right hand as if it were never there, and he sits down on another leg kick as Chandler starts to pop out a jab. Chandler has a jab countered with a calf kick, and he meets Chandler with a huge left hand that stuns the former Bellator champ. Chandler measures himself and throws a huge right hand that hurts Gaethje. They are blasting each other, and no fear is shown between the two. Gaethje gets rocked with a flying knee and a few punches, and he stings him with punches and forces Gaethje to back up wobbled to the fence. Gaethje might be slightly out on his feet, but he still bites down on his mouthpiece and nails Chandler right back. Chandler is throwing power punches that are nearly making him fall over, and both men are damaged but still throwing. This is insanity! The punches begin to mount as Chandler’s face is busted up, and he spits out some blood. Gaethje gets off a few uppercuts and a leg kick, and Chandler shoots in for a takedown but gets stuffed. The leg kick from Gaethje makes Chandler switch stances briefly, and he chains it together with a couple punches. Chandler spits out blood and fires right back in a round that is instantly in contention for “Round of the Year.” The action goes right to the bell, and they touch gloves after a ridiculous five minutes of combat.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 2
The second round begins and they meet in the center of the cage. Chandler is flinching from possible leg kicks, and he hops back when Gaethje fakes to throw one. A right hand from Gaethje makes Chandler wag his finger at him, and Gaethje smashes his shin into Chandler’s calf. Chandler may be hobbled but he is still winding up with haymakers. Gaethje scores a pair of right hands, and Chandler returns fire only to have his lead leg kicked hard. Gaethje stings Chandler with a right hand, and then a left hand on the temple sends him reeling. Gaethje clips him with an uppercut, and Chandler backs off to recover. Gaethje lets him do this, and he times a crisp uppercut. A second uppercut sends Chandler flying to the ground, and Gaethje pounces to try to finish the job. Beltran lets them fight on as Chandler survives. A desperation takedown try from Chandler lets him get his wits about him, as he pursues a low single that is stuffed without any concern at all. Gaethje rips the body with right hands as they are both on their knees, and he flirts with an anaconda choke setup before opting to circle around and take Chandler’s back. Instead of going after submissions, he backs off to let Chandler stand back up. Chandler’s face is a bloody mess but he is still game and in this fight, nodding when Gaethje lands cleanly on him. Chandler tags his opponent with his own uppercut, and then he shoots in for a takedown that gets stuffed. Gaethje steps in with an uppercut, and Chandler reels and reacts with a right hand that knocks Gaethje back. Gaethje reintroduces his shin to Chandler’s leg, and the former Bellator king’s leg is jacked up but he is able to remain on his feet. Gaethje takes a deep breath as Chandler attacks, and Chandler assaults the body with a short barrage of blows. Gaethje aims for his uppercut, but Chandler nails him with a right hand and then gets off an eye poke. Beltran does not know what to do, so he lets Chandler punch Gaethje in the face once before intervening. Beltran gives Gaethje a brief respite and asks if he is good, and then they resume. A few more punches land from both men before the horn sounds, and Gaethje complains to Beltran about the poor handling of the eye poke.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Gaethje
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Gaethje
Round 3
The gladiators touch gloves to clock in the third round, and Gaethje leads off with a nasty calf kick. Gaethje flicks out a jab and then hits Chandler in the leg so hard that Chandler spins around. Chandler is forced to switch stances because of the clear pain in his face, and Gaethje lands a few punches and then kicks the leg when Chandler goes back to orthodox stance. Chandler gets off a huge right hand, and Gaethje eats it like a steak and fires right back. The former Bellator champ aims a massive right hand that connects with the side of the head, but Gaethje rolls through it. Chandler gives chase and digs punches to the body a few times, and the body shots are getting reactions out of Gaethje. Gaethje chops down the leg, and an uppercut and a left hand snap Chandler’s head back. Gaethje cannot believe that Chandler is still standing, so he kicks the leg hard enough to nearly buckle Chandler’s legs. Chandler grabs hold of Gaethje, and although he picks Gaethje up and slams him to the ground, as soon as they hit the mat, Gaethje gets on top. Gaethje rips a few right hands that hurt Chandler for the umpteenth time, but Chandler is incredibly tough and fights through it to get back to his feet. When they get back to striking range, Chandler waves Gaethje on and starts throwing everything he has left. He manages to rock Gaethje with a few punches, and Gaethje wobbles but still manages to sling back a right hand that would have felled a bull moose. Gaethje blasts his opponent with a right hand, and Chandler drops his hands and is somehow still on his feet. Gaethje does this again, and he follows this one with a leg kick as Chandler is barely on his feet. Having switched stances from the damage of the kicks, Chandler signals to the crowd to get pumped up as if they were not already on their feet for the last 14 minutes. They take a moment to measure themselves, and Chandler leaps in the air with a jumping switch kick that is nowhere near the mark. Gaethje calmly, comfortably stalks Chandler down, and Chandler’s hands are down by his waist as he springs back and forth. Chandler jumps with a punch, and Gaethje kicks him in the chest. When the bell sounds, this absolutely incredible slugfest comes to a shocking end, and they hug it out and high five after the most obvious “Fight of the Night”-winning battle this year. It would behoove you to watch this fight as soon as you can, if you have not seen it yet reading this play-by-play – the sheer ferocity of this battle could not quite be captured in all of its grandeur.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (30-26 Gaethje)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (30-26 Gaethje)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (30-26 Gaethje)
The Official Result
Justin Gaethje def. Michael Chandler via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Michael Chandler, but hesitantly. He believes Chandler's wrestling threat and power give him an edge, and that Gaethje's chin will eventually give out. He notes that Gaethje gets hit a lot and that Chandler can take him down. However, he worries about Chandler's chin and his tendency to brawl. He thinks if Chandler wrestles, he wins; if he stands and trades, it's dangerous.
Big Brady picks Justin Gaethje to win by second-round knockout. He notes Gaethje's better cardio and durability, while Chandler fades after the first round and has a questionable chin. Brady thinks Chandler will be live early with power and potential submissions, but if it gets past the first round, Gaethje will take over and knock him out. He expects a stand-up war with Gaethje finishing Chandler in the second.
Cody strongly favors Gaethje, citing his legendary durability and Chandler's history of fading and getting knocked out. He highlights Gaethje's leg kicks targeting Chandler's weak calves and believes Chandler needs a quick KO to win. He expects Gaethje to get the job done, likely by TKO.
Daniel Levi leans toward Justin Gaethje as a pure pick but considers the fight a dog-or-pass situation at the current line. He acknowledges Gaethje's leg kicks and durability, but notes that Chandler is explosive early and could knock Gaethje out. Levi mentions that Gaethje has been rocked in many fights and that Chandler's cardio is a concern if the fight extends. He says the opener was closer to -140, and at -225 he disagrees with the value, but picks Gaethje to win.
Jacob is extremely confident in Michael Chandler, calling him the lock of the week. He believes Chandler will use his wrestling to dominate Gaethje, who is useless on the ground. He notes that Gaethje's wins are overrated and that Chandler has a clear path via takedowns. He also mentions that Chandler is a Missouri wrestler who coaches wrestling. He has a parlay with Chandler and Colby Covington.
The host picks Gaethje by second-round TKO, citing his pace, leg kicks, and improving boxing. He expects Chandler's blitzing style to fade. He prefers the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop at -300/-350 as a safer play.
Paul leans Gaethje based on durability, believing Gaethje's chin and cardio are superior to Chandler's. He notes Chandler's history of slowing down and getting knocked out in later rounds. He suggests Gaethje inside the distance at -115, preferring the ITD prop over KO only.
The Guru picks Michael Chandler, believing Gaethje's wrestling deficiencies will be exposed. He notes Gaethje's poor performance against Khabib and his inactivity. The Guru thinks Chandler's chain wrestling, body shots, and power will be too much, and predicts a rear-naked choke submission in round one or two. He also mentions Chandler is a big underdog, implying value.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 2 | 24 of 32 | 75% | 32 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 30 of 55 | 54% | 36 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 2:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 18 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 28 of 51 | 54% | 34 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 2:27 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 2 | 14 of 17 | 82% | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 24 of 32 | 75% | 20 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 9 |
| Michael Chandler | 30 of 55 | 54% | 22 of 42 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 29 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 10 of 15 | 66% | 6 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Michael Chandler | 28 of 51 | 54% | 21 of 39 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 29 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 14 of 17 | 82% | 14 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 |
| Michael Chandler | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Oliveira (-258), Chandler (+210)
Round 1
In the main event of UFC 262 in 2021, Oliveira (34-10, 1 NC; 22-10, 1 NC UFC) and Chandler (23-8, 2-3 UFC) threw everything they had at one another for five minutes and 19 seconds of pure carnage. When the dust settled, the lightweight strap remained around the waist of “Do Bronx,” although Chandler had the champ on the ropes more than once in the first round. Three and a half years later, they meet again, again with five rounds to work but no gold up for grabs. Referee Keith Peterson will enjoy officiating this lightweight affair for as long as it lasts, and the fighters bump fists with ample respect for one another and a whole lot of excitement for what’s about to come. There will be no nonsense…inside the cage, at least. Around its perimeter, however, some may disagree. The fighters square up, with Oliveira moving to the center of the cage, and he backs off after an exchange and wipes at his eye as if he was poked. Chandler jabs at the right eye a few times, otherwise measured and not going wild like the first fight. Chandler connects with a left to the body and eats a right up top. Oliveira shoots in for a double, lifting Chandler up and not dropping him down because Chandler egregiously grabbed the top of the fence. This works to his disadvantage greatly, as Oliveira traps Chandler’s left leg and sits on top of Chandlers chest. Oliveira frees his left arm and swats at Chandler to make him think of other strikes, and Chandler hooks his leg around Oliveira’s right wrist and puts the limb in a triangle. Oliveira lowers himself down to wrench his arm out, and he wriggles it free and unwraps Chandler’s other hand from the back of his head. Chandler hangs on in hopes of a standup, and Oliveira sits up and starts pulsing his hips to yank his leg free to move to mount. All the while, Oliveira remains on top in control, with Chandler stuck unable to do anything but smack him on both sides of the head. Peterson pays close attention, asking for more action and warning Oliveira for putting his fingers in the cage to hang on and keep the position. Oliveira rides out the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Round 2
The fighters clap hands to get going, and Oliveira walks Chandler down and paws out front kicks. Oliveira lets fly a leg kick that turns Chandler slightly, and he backs off and scores another before Chandler can reach him. Chandler jabs to the body and head, and he misses when swinging harder. Oliveira rushes forward, knocking Chandler to a knee courtesy of a three-punch combination. Chandler works his way up and escapes, and Oliveira follows him and clubs him with a powerful right hand. Chandler sprints away, tripping on the outer edge of the cage to try not to get cornered and hurt any further. Chandler smiles, bounces off the cage and attacks. Oliveira blocks and counters, kicking Chandler when resetting. Oliveira kicks high and stumbles his opponent, and he drives a knee to the chin. Chandler bites down on his mouthpiece and throws bombs, and one heavy left gets in. Oliveira pitches a front kick and rushes after the former Bellator champ, bowling him over with ease and landing into full mount. Oliveira stays tightly pressed to his adversary, getting in the occasional elbow before he is able to posture up. The elbows keep coming from the Brazilian, and every time he sits up, Chandler looks for a way to escape but is stifled each and every time. Oliveira’s elbows inflict damage, cutting Chandler slightly as they start to add up. Chandler tries to turn his head to the side, and Oliveira hacks down with 12-6 elbows when his corner reminds him he can use these strikes. Chandler looks to tug his fingers off the fence to get in better position, and Oliveira thumps him with a few more strikes before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Round 3
Chandler wipes his feet on the floor a few times before the round opens, and he is fired up and looking for offense as soon as it does. Chandler rushes forward, going past a front kick to back the Brazilian against the wall. Oliveira sticks out a left hand and a front kick to make Chandler retreat, and he crashes the pocket in pursuit of a labored takedown. Chandler gets out of the way and works the lead leg with a kick. Oliveira races after him, drilling Chandler with an uppercut and putting his back against the cage. Chandler sways and leans with his back on the wall, waiting for Oliveira to engage so he can counter. Chandler pounds his foe on the front leg, and he clips Oliveira. Oliveira gives him back an uppercut to think about, and he jumps at “Iron Mike” with a knee. Oliveira strides forward with the utmost of confident, letting Chandler have it and watching him swing way too hard. Oliveira strings an elbow into an uppercut and a level change, and Chandler defends the takedown that comes with a fence grab. Oliveira takes his back and gets both hooks in, and he secures the body triangle and squeezes it tight. Chandler hand-fights to keep his neck free of harm, and Oliveira complains of glove grabs. Chandler turns and twists, and Oliveira elbows him on the top of the head—these blows are still illegal because they are landing on the crown of the head. Peterson mentions this, and Oliveira adjusts his trajectory and keeps his right arm fastened on Chandler’s face to smack him with his free left hand. The Brazilian resets the body triangle, attempting to hook Chandler’s arm in the leglock but not successfully doing so. Oliveira wraps his arm on the chin, and he squeezes a face crank that does not have enough strength to stop him. Chandler turns and sits up, and he smiles at someone sitting cageside. The round ends, and Chandler lightly shoves the Brazilian away with a grin.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Oliveira
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Round 4
Having reached the championship rounds, the two touch ‘em up. Chandler swats away a few early kicks and swings hard with a right to the body. Oliveira chips at him with low kicks, walking through a Chandler strike to put a right hand on his chin. Chandler opens up with a left hand and is hurt from the response, but he knows Oliveira wants the finish and winds up with looping hooks. One big blow stings “Do Bronx,” and Oliveira closes in a bit more carefully so as to not get caught. Oliveira works his way in to wrap up Chandler and drag him down from behind, where he takes the ex-Bellator fighter’s back and wraps up a hook. Chandler turns to his stomach, and Oliveira wrenches on him to turn him to the side so he can complete a body triangle. “Iron Mike” knows the choke is incoming, so he retains an iron grip on the right wrist of his foe. Chandler turns all the way around, and Oliveira follows him but is unable to get both hooks in. Slowly and methodically, the Brazilian sneaks in the second hook, and he tries to force Chandler down to flatten him out. Oliveira wraps up a rear-naked choke, and Chandler yanks on Oliveira’s hand to break up the submission. Oliveira tries again, and Chandler grits it out and again survives the choke. Both fighters decide to go for anything else, and time eventually ticks away to conclude Round 4. Chandler, likely way down on the scorecards, flashes a grin to the commentary booth.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Round 5
The fighters double clap hands, and Chandler chooses not to participate in a hug or whatever else Oliveira offers. He comes out swinging, and a big left to the body lands hard. Oliveira intercepts him with a clean leg kick that hurts him, and he shoots in deep for a takedown that fails miserably. Seeing the leg kick is succeeding, he kicks the knee twice, and Chandler comes back at him with three powerful punches. Oliveira backs off, clutching his right eye—not the one that was poked early on Round 1. Oliveira falls over due to the oncoming fire, and he rolls over as Chandler smashes him time and again all to the back of the head. Peterson somehow allows a long series of blatantly illegal strikes, and Oliveira hangs on tight despite this. Chandler keeps on pounding on his opponent until Oliveira turns to his back. Peterson asks him to fight back, and Chandler slows down and does not want to burn himself out swinging so much, so hard. Oliveira miraculously sits up and works to his feet, and Chandler stalks him down and slings with bad intentions. Oliveira responds, and Chandler waves him on. Chandler swings as hard as he can and falls over, allowing Oliveira to take his back in a hurry. Oliveira wraps up a rear-naked choke that is on top of the chin—that is a face crank, not a choke—and Chandler’s toughness keeps him safe. Through sheer force of will, Chandler stands up despite Oliveira hanging on, and he screams “F--- yeah” and jumps in the air to slam Oliveira down with his own body adding to the impact. Oliveira hangs onto his back like a malicious backpack, and Chandler stands up again and once more smashes him down like a pro wrestler doing a super move. The crowd explodes in favor of Chandler’s high-amplitude attacks, and Oliveira is no worse for wear from the assault. Chandler taps Oliveira hands, not to surrender but to ask him if he is having fun yet. The five-round affair comes to a close, with high drama and excitement littered across this rematch. Both men put it out there and had a blast, and Chandler walks to his corner and collapses to his seat to catch his breath. Oliveira, on the other hand, climbs out of the cage to have a conversation with a few people watching, including the President-elect. What an interesting battle, and what a final round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chandler (49-46 Oliveira)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Chandler (49-45 Oliveira)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chandler (49-46 Oliveira)
The Official Result
Charles Oliveira def. Michael Chandler via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
Chandler has tremendous power and pressure, and Oliveira has been knocked out before. Chandler's takedown defense is excellent, so the fight likely stays on the feet where Chandler's power is a major threat. I think Chandler catches Oliveira early and finishes him in the first round by knockout. I also like the under 2.5 rounds.
Cody is confident in Michael Chandler as a plus-money underdog. He highlights Chandler's athleticism, explosiveness, and power, noting that he knocked out Dan Hooker in the first round. Cody believes Chandler can knock out Oliveira early, as Oliveira has a good chin but not a great one. He also mentions that Chandler's wrestling can stuff Oliveira's takedowns. Cody suggests a live betting strategy: bet Chandler after the first round if Oliveira survives, or bet Oliveira at plus money later. He notes the odds suggest the fight may not go past the second round.
Daniel Levi picks Charles Oliveira, citing his eight-fight win streak, improved striking, and mental fortitude. He notes Oliveira's evolution from a quitter to a composed fighter, and believes the mental game has finally caught up with his physical skills. Levi acknowledges Chandler's power and early-finish threat but thinks Oliveira's length, jiu-jitsu, and calf kicks will be key. He mentions that if Oliveira can overcome adversity like he did against Tamer, he will become champion.
The host picks Chandler to land an early bomb and knock out Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's head movement is poor and Chandler has explosive power. He acknowledges Oliveira's improved striking and dangerous jiu-jitsu but thinks Chandler's wrestling and durability could be key. He says the under 2.5 rounds is his strongest read on the card.
Paul is leaning towards Oliveira based on his longer, straighter punches and submission threat. He notes that Oliveira doesn't need a takedown to grab a hold and find a submission. However, he is not too confident and wants to watch the Ferguson vs Dariush fight first to assess if Ferguson is completely washed, which would devalue Oliveira's win. He mentions that Oliveira's performance against Ferguson could be inflated if Ferguson is done.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chandler to win by KO in the first round. He believes Chandler's explosiveness and power will be too much for Oliveira, who reacts poorly when hit hard. He predicts Chandler will dictate the pace, land a big right hand, and finish Oliveira against the cage. He also speculates Chandler may be on steroids.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dan Hooker | 1 | 17 of 24 | 70% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chandler | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dan Hooker | 1 | 17 of 24 | 70% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chandler | 8 of 19 | 42% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 12 | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Hooker | 17 of 24 | 70% | 12 of 17 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chandler | 8 of 19 | 42% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 12 | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Hooker | 17 of 24 | 70% | 12 of 17 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In our co-main event, “The Hangman” Hooker (20-9, 10-5 UFC) wins the prize of welcoming three-time former Bellator MMA lightweight champ Chandler (21-5, 0-0 UFC) to the UFC after years of speculating how he would fare inside the promotion. That time is now, and referee Marc Goddard will see to it that this fight takes place on the up-and-up. The fighters do not touch gloves before coming out swinging. Hooker gets crowded early on as he paws out long punches, and he lands a heavy leg kick. Chandler stops, stares at a retreating Hooker, and resets. Hooker gets off a few more chopping calf kicks, and Chandler is cocking back his right hand but not unleashing it. Chandler again looks frustrated at Hooker’s strategy, and he reaches but cannot connect with an overhand right. Hooker stays from a distanced with a few more leg kicks, and Chandler finally bears down on him looking for right hands. Chandler goes to the body and head with right hands, and he gets off a push kick that bounces Hooker off the cage. A Hooker calf kick makes Chandler take a weird step back, and gathers himself to advance and attack. A right hand to the body from Chandler is followed by a leaping left hook that could fell a much larger man. Hooker goes down in a heap, and “Iron Mike” charges forward to finish the job. The newcomer pounds away at Hooker with a fury, unloading strike after strike in a blistering pace until Goddard has seen enough. What a finish for Chandler, who then announces himself to the UFC, the lightweight division, Conor McGregor and Khabib Nurmagomedov as the new king of the division with a killer promo that will put him on the map in a major way.
The Official Result
Michael Chandler def. Dan Hooker R1 2:30 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady leans towards Dan Hooker, citing Hooker's reach advantage (75.5 inches vs 69 inches), durability, and power. He thinks Hooker's takedown defense (79%) will keep the fight standing, and that Chandler's history of being knocked out is a concern. He predicts Hooker wins by knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Michael Chandler as the underdog, citing Chandler's D1 wrestling, power, and fresher mindset. He notes Hooker's recent damage and potential overrated status, but acknowledges Hooker's striking weapons like the knee up the middle and calf kicks. Levi believes Chandler can land a big right hand or use wrestling to control the fight, though he admits it's a close matchup.
Hooker has a huge reach and height advantage, and he is excellent at using calf kicks to neutralize opponents. Chandler has a suspect chin and struggles with distance. Hooker's takedown defense has been excellent since moving to 155, stuffing 19 of 21 attempts. Chandler will have difficulty closing the distance and may get countered. I expect Hooker to win by knockout, possibly with a left hook or calf kick setup.
The MMA Guru picks Dan Hooker to win by KO in the first round, citing Hooker's calf kicks and reach advantage. He believes Chandler will struggle to get inside due to Hooker's length and will be vulnerable to a knee up the middle. He notes Chandler's history of leg issues (Brent Primus fight) and thinks Hooker's early calf kicks will slow Chandler's explosiveness. He also mentions Hooker's toughness and ability to survive grappling exchanges.
Paddy Pimblett - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 2 | 144 of 254 | 56% | 200 of 313 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:55 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 156 of 311 | 50% | 170 of 326 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 1 | 27 of 45 | 60% | 40 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 37 of 65 | 56% | 38 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 1 | 32 of 50 | 64% | 52 of 70 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 25 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 24 of 53 | 45% | 25 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 41 of 78 | 52% | 42 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 32 of 54 | 59% | 44 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 35 of 58 | 60% | 36 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 29 of 52 | 55% | 39 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 21 of 63 | 33% | 29 of 72 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 144 of 254 | 56% | 120 of 222 | 15 of 21 | 9 of 11 | 102 of 198 | 20 of 27 | 22 of 29 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 156 of 311 | 50% | 83 of 221 | 48 of 63 | 25 of 27 | 140 of 284 | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 27 of 45 | 60% | 23 of 40 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 22 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 37 of 65 | 56% | 17 of 43 | 12 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 30 of 58 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 32 of 50 | 64% | 30 of 45 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 27 | 5 of 6 | 14 of 17 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 22 of 47 | 46% | 9 of 31 | 7 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 18 of 37 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 24 of 53 | 45% | 16 of 42 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 41 of 78 | 52% | 21 of 54 | 11 of 14 | 9 of 10 | 41 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Justin Gaethje | 32 of 54 | 59% | 27 of 48 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 39 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 35 of 58 | 60% | 19 of 38 | 14 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 33 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Justin Gaethje | 29 of 52 | 55% | 24 of 47 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 42 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 21 of 63 | 33% | 17 of 55 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 56 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pimblett (-230), Gaethje (+190)
Round 1
If the UFC wanted an action-packed headliner in its inaugural Paramount effort, it could do little worse than placing bonus magnet Gaethje (26-5, 9-5 UFC) in the marquee. He vies for the interim lightweight strap, as Ilia Topuria still holds the disputed belt while he takes time off. To become an ultra-rare two-time UFC interim champion, “The Highlight” will have to get past brash Liverpudlian and submission specialist Pimblett (23-3, 7-0 UFC). Whether this one takes place on the ground or predominantly on the feet, it will first commence with referee Marc Goddard bringing the two together to issue final instructions. One last fist bump seals the cage around them, and it’s time for some action.
Gaethje gets right to walking the Brit down, who keeps him at bay early with a few sweeping low kicks. Pimblett loops a right hand around the guard, stumbling “The Highlight” for a brief moment. Pimblett then lands a right hand and a body kick, and he gets off a low kick as well before getting caught with an overhand right. Gaethje works the body, and Pimblett knocks him back with a looping hook. Pimblett intercepts an advancing Gaethje with a knee and a crisp right hand, nailing the American until he gets hit with something he does not like and turns to the side. Gaethje unloads, blasting the Scouser with an uppercut that knocks him down to the floor. Pimblett rolls over to avoid the diving punch that he still can sense is coming, turning to his knees to survive the attack. When Gaethje backs off, he lets Pimblett stand and walks face-first into an uppercut. Gaethje marches down the retreating Pimblett with impunity, keeping Pimblett to the wall and knocking him down with a kick. Pimblett stands, and he knees Gaethje square in the face and makes him laugh.
Gaethje is throwing everything he has at Pimblett, charging recklessly and not showing one iota of concern about the heat coming back at him. Pimblett gets him with a few body shots, and Gaethje whiffs with his haymaker and grabs his foe from behind. Pimblett grabs the fence to improve his position, and they trade short strikes on the inside until separating. Gaethje is right in Pimblett’s face, pitching big kicks while Gaethje is headhunting. Pimblett times his uppercut again, as Gaethje ducks into it almost every time. Pimblett kicks and keeps himself composed, and Gaethje drills him with a right hand and posts off with his left to jam a finger in the eye socket of “The Baddy.” Goddard immediately calls time, and Pimblett motions to the crowd with confusion as to why they are booing him after a clear eye poke. Gaethje paces back and forth while waiting for a minute for Pimblett to recover, and Goddard issues a hard warning saying one more foul would result in a point deduction. When they get back to it, Pimblett sets up kicks, including to the dome and a few to the front leg. Gaethje shrugs them off and belts the Brit with fierce hooks, and Pimblett throws back with a vengeance until they tie up from momentums clashing. Pimblett, with his back to the wall, jams Gaethje in the chest with a few knees, and he just misses on a spinning back elbow. Gaethje scores a right hand and tries to throw a low kick, but he throws himself off-balance. The dramatic round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 2
The lightweights high-five to get going, and Pimblett quickly revs up his engine as Gaethje bears down on him. Gaethje drills Pimblett coming at him, and he absorbs a few low kicks on his way forward. Gaethje swings so hard he almost falls over, and Pimblett drops to his knees to defend what turns into a half-hearted takedown with a head lock control. Gaethje lands a few short uppercuts before they work back to their feet. Pimblett lands a body kick and gets popped with a left, and he develops some swelling on his right eye. Pimblett falls over when kicking, and Gaethje looks at him, lets him back up and lays into him with swarming punches. Pimblett connects with a few clean knees, and his uppercut is money in the bank, but Gaethje ignores it all and keeps on him swinging with everything he has. Pimblett sinks in a low kick and narrowly misses a “Mortal Kombat”-esque uppercut, and he settles himself down to lump Gaethje up with knees to the body.
They split apart, and Gaethje ducks a haymaker to clip the Liverpudlian. Pimblett ties him up and delivers a bouquet of knees to the sternum, and he takes a right hand on the temple that changes his facial expression. Gaethje walks through a low kick to measure Pimblett when swaying, and he allows Pimblett to drop down so he can grab him by the back of the neck and force him down. Gaethje knees his foe in the shoulder when holding on, and Pimblett bides his time while Gaethje is pressing on him. Pimblett forces his way back up, and he takes a knee that knocks him right back down. It may have been a flash knockdown, but it is enough to set a chain of events in motion where Gaethje further presses his foot on the gas to beat down on “The Baddy.” Pimblett survives and hits the deck from the oncoming blows, with Gaethje then dropping down punishment on him in hopes of finishing the fight. Pimblett looks for an upkick to keep him safe, but Gaethje leaps through it and bashes his face in. A bloodied Pimblett barely survives the barrage of blistering blows, and he makes it to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Gaethje
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 3
Between rounds, replays show that Gaethje thumbed Pimblett in the eye, which is what might have hurt him to start. Because it was not called during the round, Goddard cannot go back and assess a penalty. They start up after a 10-minute brawl, and Pimblett gets knocked down within seconds, but it might have been part of his evasion plan as he pops back up no worse for wear. Gaethje walks him down and loads up on leg kicks which made him famous, and he prepares a check when he sees Pimblett is about to respond in kind. Gaethje meanders forward, lunging in but taking some damage on the way. Pimblett scores a calf kick and pumps out his sharp jab, and he shoulder rolls what Gaethje whips at him. Gaethje does land another heavy calf kick, and fans start changing his name. Pimblett chains punches together, and Gaethje sways and pulls back before committing. He walks Pimblett to the wall and is quite inaccurate when loading up, allowing Pimblett to circle out and keep working the jab.
The volume from Gaethje has slowed significantly, but his leg kick is finding its home repeatedly. Gaethje drills his foe with an overhand right, and Pimblett goes to the body with a kick response. Pimblett’s kicks might be making a difference, as Gaethje’s movement is compromised and he is favoring his right hand. His left still gets through, but Pimblett rocks him with a series of punches. Pimblett takes advantage of the slowing Arizonan by picking at him with jabs and follow-up punches, and he leaps at his foe with a knee that bangs into the cup. Gaethje grabs his groin and groans, and Goddard calls time and lets Pimblett know the knee did indeed land low. After 45 seconds, Gaethje is good to go, and they resume with less than a minute remaining in the round. Pimblett beats Gaethje to the punch, the fresher of the two with heavy right hands that set up a big head kick. Gaethje rips a kick to the liver, and he snaps the head back with a jab, but Pimblett is right there throwing fire. Gaethje stuns Pimblett with a ferocious right hand, and Pimblett tanks it and points at his chest as the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Round 4
Having reached the championship rounds, the lightweights high-five. Gaethje starts off the round with a jab to the body, and Pimblett does the same. They both pick and poke at one another’s torsos, and Gaethje sways directly into a right hand that gets his attention. Gaethje staggers his foe with a looping right, and Pimblett hops away and takes two more on the forward bow. When Pimblett rushes him for a possible takedown, Gaethje clips him on the way in and drops him to his knees. Gaethje presses on the back of the neck to hold the Scouser down, and he stands back up and knocks Pimblett to the wall. Pimblett gathers himself and flashes his jab, and he brings up a knee but is knocked off his feet by a Gaethje left. Gaethje allows him to stand, and he pressures forward and takes a flush knee but does not bat an eye. Pimblett lands a hard calf kick, and Gaethje frowns and staggers Pimblett with a powerful right. Gaethje bends Pimblett over and knees him on the back of the thigh, and when Pimblett turns, he blasts him in the face with his furious fists.
Pimblett is tough as any one of those expressions that comes to mind, with Gaethje hitting the younger man with practically everything, the kitchen sink, the chair under the announcer’s booth and the table itself. When close together, a Gaethje knee bangs into the cup, but it also strikes the body so Goddard calls it legal. Gaethje bloodies up “The Baddy,” but he does not put him away, as Pimblett marches towards him with fists and feet flying. Gaethje catches a kick, and he ducks a spin so he can blast Pimblett in the face with his monster right. Pimblett’s face is a horror show, but he still throws back and is responsive enough to make Gaethje pay on some counters. Gaethje overswings, and he blocks a high kick but does not defend a leg kick. Pimblett spurs into action, hurting Gaethje, who proceeds to knock the Liverpudlian over and lay into him with punches until they stand. When Gaethje releases him, he launches a kick, and the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 5
The crowd is electric after 20 insane minutes of all-out combat, and they hug it out to get it going. Gaethje ducks a punch to fire off a right hand, and his subsequent jab lands cleaner. Pimblett fakes a takedown to open up offense, nailing Gaethje in the jaw with a knee but not slowing him one second. Gaethje unloads with a missile of a right hand, and Pimblett’s defense may be not great but his toughness is off the charts. Gaethje prods a jab to open up a cut on the cheek of Pimblett, who is fired up and ready to recklessly engage. Gaethje is happy to live in the fire, walking through anything fired at him to do damage. Pimblett goes all-in for a takedown, and Gaethje spins around to defend the first try and puts himself to the wall to keep his balance. Pimblett knees the body when clinched up, and Gaethje does the same.
Gaethje works his way out and skims the chin with a right, but when he loads up with another, he catches Pimblett cleanly. The otherworldly durability of the Scouser is on full display here, as he is still very much in the fight that has about two minutes remaining. Gaethje ducks a telegraphed spin, and he loads up on three successive right hands. Pimblett backs him off one single step with a jump knee, but Gaethje gives him fireballs right back. Gaethje gets caught with a stream of punches from the Brit, and he has to clinch up to keep himself on his feet now. Gaethje slows down the fiery Liverpool native to ride out most of the rest of the round, with the 10-second clapper sounding. Pimblett goes wild, jumping with a knee that slams into the cup, and Gaethje turns around and clutches his groin. Goddard does not call it, so Pimblett attacks so ferociously that he is the one to fall over. As soon as the time expires to end this tremendous title tilt, the lightweights share an embrace. Hello, "Fight of the Year? We have something for you already, just one major event in."
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (49-46 Gaethje)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (49-45 Gaethje)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett (48-47 Gaethje)
The Official Result
Justin Gaethje def. Paddy Pimblett via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
Angelo picks Paddy Pimblett but with low confidence, calling the line disrespectful. He trusts Paddy's grappling and durability, believing he can avoid getting knocked out and land takedowns. He acknowledges Justin Gaethje's toughness and striking volume but thinks Paddy's youth and recent improvements give him the edge. He says he is not betting on this fight.
Big Brady thinks the ground is lava for Gaethje, who gets dominated and submitted when taken down. He notes Pimblett has a massive grappling advantage and will likely get the fight to the mat. On the feet, Gaethje is better but hasn't knocked anyone out recently except Poirier, and Pimblett is durable. He predicts Pimblett by second-round submission.
Cody picks Justin Gaethje as an underdog, citing Gaethje's proven durability, cardio, and experience against top competition. He questions Paddy's resume, noting he hasn't faced the upper echelon of the division. Cody believes Gaethje's striking and pressure will be key, and he likes the plus money value.
Connor picks Gaethje but is hesitant, acknowledging that Pimblett's style is a real threat. He argues that Gaethje's low kicks and pocket power could be decisive, and that Pimblett's 42% striking defense is historically terrible. However, he admits Gaethje has lost speed and finishing touch, and that Pimblett's durability and grappling could cause problems. Connor ultimately trusts Gaethje's experience and power to find a finish, but says he doesn't feel good about it.
Daniel Vreeland picks Paddy Pimblett to win by finish. He notes that Gaethje is aging at 37 and has been rocked in many fights, while Pimblett is durable, improving, and has a deceptive ground game. Vreeland believes Pimblett can time Gaethje's kicks and land a hook, and that his jiu-jitsu and durability will be key. He also mentions that Gaethje has been submitted before and that Pimblett's confidence is high.
James highlights a massive grappling disparity, noting Pimblett is a legitimate black belt while Gaethje is a blue belt who admitted to not training grappling. He believes Pimblett will get the fight to the ground via clinch trips or judo throws and submit Gaethje, possibly with a triangle choke. He also notes Gaethje's durability issues and a potential staph infection. James predicts a submission win in round three.
The host believes Paddy Pimblett's size, strength, and grappling will be too much for an aging Justin Gaethje. He notes that Gaethje's best chance is to box and use leg kicks, but expects Pimblett to eventually drag him to the mat and secure a submission, similar to his win over Michael Chandler. The host acknowledges the line at -225 is a bit wide but sees Pimblett catching Gaethje at the perfect time.
Paul leans toward Paddy Pimblett, noting his improved lifestyle and cardio. He believes Paddy's grappling will be the difference over five rounds, potentially securing a submission. However, he is hesitant on the money line and prefers the prop bet of Paddy by submission at +185.
The MMA Guru picks Paddy Pimblett by submission, citing Gaethje's grappling vulnerabilities and Pimblett's jiu-jitsu. He notes that Gaethje's KO power is inconsistent and that Pimblett can slow the pace. He predicts an armbar or triangle.
Zane picks Paddy Pimblett, citing Gaethje's age (37) and mileage, his recent struggles with takedowns (e.g., against Fiziev), and Pimblett's venomous grappling and fearlessness. He notes that Gaethje's one-shot KO power has diminished and that Pimblett's chaotic style often leads to ground scrambles where Gaethje panics. Zane acknowledges Pimblett's terrible striking defense (42%) but believes his durability and ability to create weird grappling opportunities will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chandler | 0 | 11 of 28 | 39% | 20 of 39 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 80 of 143 | 55% | 121 of 197 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 4:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chandler | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 7 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:10 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 25 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Chandler | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 11 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 34 of 63 | 53% | 49 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:15 | |
| 3 | Michael Chandler | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 30 of 40 | 75% | 47 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chandler | 11 of 28 | 39% | 6 of 18 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 80 of 143 | 55% | 61 of 119 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 19 | 43 of 96 | 4 of 5 | 33 of 42 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chandler | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 16 of 40 | 40% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 10 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Chandler | 5 of 14 | 35% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 34 of 63 | 53% | 26 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 9 | 19 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 17 | |
| 3 | Michael Chandler | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paddy Pimblett | 30 of 40 | 75% | 28 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 25 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pimblett (-148), Chandler (+124)
Round 1
With plenty of bluster and hoopla surrounding the match, Chandler (23-9, 2-4 UFC) vs. Pimblett (22-3, 6-0 UFC) has now arrived. Perhaps unexpectedly, the Liverpudlian has a second home in Miami even though Chandler trains in Deerfield Beach, not far north from there. Far from a prototypical striker vs. grappler matchup, this fight could end up anywhere. Because of that, referee Kerry Hatley has his running shoes laced up and ready to follow the lightweights wherever they may roam. Before the two get down to their non-title five-round pairing, they decide to touch gloves after all. Pimblett paws out a jab and a low kick to take advantage of his reach, and he hammers the front leg with two more kicks. Chandler’s leg is already welted less than a minute in, and Pimblett jams him to the body with a teep kick. Pimblett lashes out with another low kick, and Chandler ducks down and swings for the fences with a right hand. Pimblett darts out of the way and dings Chandler with an uppercut. Chandler tries to take the fight down, and Pimblett grabs the fence to prevent it. A second effort, where Chandler lifts “The Baddy” in the air to slam him down, results in a successful takedown. Chandler hangs on from behind, wrapping up his arms on the waist. Pimblett gets to a knee and hacks at Chandler without looking, elbowing “Iron Mike” on the nose. Pimblett threatens with a kimura, and Chandler lowers Pimblett down and hammers him in the face with a right hand to release the sub grip. Chandler imposes his weight on the former Cage Warriors fighter, and Pimblett suddenly jumps for a flying triangle choke. He succeeds in dragging Chandler to the floor, but there is no chance of him getting the choke as Chandler bucks out of it and resets. Pimblett follows him and slugs him in the face with a right hand, and his low kick right after it further damages his opponent. Chandler connects with a clean right, and Pimblett kicks him in the same spot on the front leg once more. Pimblett comes up short with a right hand, and he skips it off the shoulder when firing again. Chandler slips when backpedaling, just getting out of the way from two looping punches. Chandler sits down on a hard left, and Pimblett goes not flinch and instead throws back with a heavy right hand. Pimblett runs at him to keep attacking, forcing Chandler to ricochet off the fencing as time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Round 2
The fighters high-five to get going again, and Pimblett reintroduces himself with a snappy jab. Chandler reddens his foe’s nose with his own jab, and he ducks down to evade the counter. Chandler walks into a few body shots, with Pimblett fighting smartly behind his jab. He strings a few punches together to make Chandler back off and regather himself, and he dings Chandler with a left hook and a leg kick. Chandler kicks him back, and he retreats to block a head kick. Chandler’s leg is getting beaten up from kicks, and Pimblett walks him down and jabs him up. Pimblett gets off a head kick that bangs into the neck, and he lands a low kick and three punches to follow. Chandler backs off, wipes his hand, and they kick at the same time. Pimblett groans as he takes the kick flush on the cup, and Hatley calls time. Pimblett calls Chandler a cheater, and they decide to high-five a couple times to bury any beef. Chandler shoots in for takedown when they restart, and Pimblett shuts it down and boots Chandler upside the head. Chandler counters with two hooks and a takedown shot, and he elects to lift Pimblett in the air and dump him to the ground. Pimblett works to a knee and upright, not allowing Chandler to control him, and he lets go more elbows on the face. Chandler hurls him to the mat again and takes his back, and he is too high and falls off the back. Pimblett asserts himself in top position, stepping into half guard and fastening up an arm-triangle choke. The Brit steps to the side while still holding the choke setup, and he looks to step into mount or otherwise advance to a dominant position. Pimblett lets go of the grip to hack down with elbows, and Chandler explodes only to give up his back. Pimblett gets a hook in and bowls Chandler over, where he proceeds to leap into mount and lash out with elbows. Chandler spins around, his back still taken, and Pimblett wraps the body triangle around his waist. Pimblett smacks the former Bellator champ upside the head, and he prevents Chandler from turning with his body lock. Pimblett lumps Chandler up with a few 12-to-6 elbows as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pimblett
Round 3
Ice is spilled in Chandler’s corner, and commentator Joe Rogan does not freak out. Hatley has to use a towel to clean the area, and the fighters re-engage when he says fight. Chandler ducks in to punch, and he walks face-first into a destructive knee that splits his cheek wide open. Pimblett rushes after him, and Chandler explodes with a huge right hand. Pimblett measures his options, and he decides to lift the former Bellator great in the air and throw him down. Pimblett immediately assumes back control, getting one hook in, and Chandler looks to his team for answers. Pimblett elbows a few times, landing one on the back of the head, and Hatley warns him for the foul. Chandler keeps swaying and moving to recover, and Pimblett goes for a rear-naked choke grip. When Pimblett releases it, he slashes down with elbows to target the large cut on Chandler’s cheek. Pimblett nails Chandler with another elbow, and he shifts into mount and keeps attacking. Chandler turns through to not get caught in a choke, and blood pours down his face. Pimblett postures up to rain down elbows and punches, and Hatley is watching closely. Pimblett rains down elbows and punches, unleashing one last hellacious salvo of offense that makes Hatley say enough is enough. “The Baddy” dismounts his defeated foe, and he shouts to the camera, “What now?” Chandler returns to his feet, and he is ushered out of the cage to seek immediate medical attention, in part due to the substantial gash on his cheek. Happy as a claim, the victorious Pimblett dances around, and he brushes his face to indicate that he did not take any damage while throwing down with the heavy-handed Chandler.
The Official Result
Paddy Pimblett def. Michael Chandler R3 3:07 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
Connor picks Chandler, arguing that despite Chandler's recent losses, he remains a powerful wrestler and striker who has hurt every opponent he's faced. He notes that Pimblett's cardio is suspect and that Chandler's functional aggression in later rounds could be decisive. Connor believes Pimblett's striking has improved only in that he makes fewer mistakes, but he still lacks the tools to handle Chandler's pressure and power. He sees Chandler's wrestling as a key advantage, even if Chandler's technique has declined.
Daniel Levi notes that Paddy Pimblett destroyed Michael Chandler, outstriking him 8 to 1 and winning by TKO via elbows in round three. He calls it one of the best bets of the year at minus 150. He believes the market hasn't caught up on Pimblett yet, offering value.
Lucrative James picks Paddy Pimblett to win, citing Chandler's volatility and potential decline. He notes that Chandler has been out of the octagon for two years waiting for Conor McGregor, which may have aged him. He believes Pimblett has better durability, range control, and fight IQ. He expects Pimblett to find a submission, possibly a guillotine, as the fight progresses. He acknowledges Chandler's power and wrestling but thinks Pimblett can weather the early storm and take over.
Zane picks Pimblett, but hesitantly, because he sees Chandler as prone to creating scrambles and giving up his back, which is Pimblett's strength. He notes that Chandler is a powerful wrestler but has been reckless and hittable, and that Pimblett's submission game could capitalize on Chandler's tendency to get into messy positions. Zane acknowledges that Chandler has the tools to win and that this should be a bridge too far for Pimblett, but he feels Chandler's willingness to engage in chaos favors Pimblett.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 15 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| King Green | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 15 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| King Green | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 15 of 21 | 71% | 2 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| King Green | 8 of 13 | 61% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 15 of 21 | 71% | 2 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| King Green | 8 of 13 | 61% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Green (-120), Pimblett (+100)
Round 1
While the last two fights are championship affairs with a Brit defending their throne, fans might be here for the people’s main event that is the “featured fight of the night.” No matter his new first name, for play-by-play purposes this Strikeforce veteran will be called by his surname, Green (32-15-1, 1 NC; 13-10-1, 1 NC UFC). He will try to take all the wind out of the sails of the raucous Manchester crowd, which is going bananas for Pimblett (21-3, 5-0 UFC). Referee Lukasz Bosacki can scarcely hear himself think, but he knows it is time and starts the fight between the beloved lightweights. Even having said earlier this week it is all business, the two choose not to touch gloves before slugging it out. Green’s hands are low as always, and he pokes at the front leg with a kick. Pimblett winds up with a much heavier kick on the inside, and he lands a second with emphasis. Pimblett sticks out a jab and checks a kick, and he sits down on an especially powerful calf kick. Green marches forward and starts talking trash, and Pimblett catches him with a counter as he backs off. Green brushes his shoulder when Pimblett lands on him, and the Brit lands a low kick as well. Green connects with a pair of stomping kicks to the knee, and he reaches a left hand to the midsection. Green kicks the front leg and is tripped up, and he acknowledges the strike and kicks at him. Green points at his adversary as he walks him down, and he tells Pimblett to hit him. Pimblett elects to kick the calf instead, and Green kicks him in the ribs in response. Green keeps jabbing with his front leg, and he shoots for a takedown and falls straight into a guillotine choke attempt. Green slips out of it, and Pimblett adjusts and locks down a triangle choke. Green rolls to the side but is still dangerously caught in the submission, and Pimblett starts celebrating as he leans back. Green struggles and gets rolled to his back, and he wrenches on the arm while crushing on Green’s carotid artery. Life leaves Green’s eyes as the submission deprives him completely of his consciousness, and Bosacki recognizes this and rescues the snoozing Green from further harm. Pimblett immediately lets go and leaps to the top of the cage as the audience explodes to celebrate the stoppage win for their star. He jumps out of the Octagon to high-five UFC chief Hunter Campbell, and the crowd is absolutely deafening. “The Baddy” passed the biggest test of his career with flying colors, putting the dangerous Green to sleep and becoming the first fighter to submit Green since 2009.
The Official Result
Paddy Pimblett def. Bobby Green R1 3:22 via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks King Green (Bobby Green) as the better striker with good takedown defense. He notes that Green's volume and defense are excellent, but he only bets half a unit because Green is fighting in enemy territory, could face a sketchy decision, and if taken down by Pimblett, he may not get back up. Angelo acknowledges Pimblett's grappling control but believes Green's striking will be the difference.
Cody is confident in King Green, citing his well-rounded skills and veteran savvy. He notes that Paddy Pimblett has looked unimpressive in his UFC fights, often losing rounds before getting finishes, and that his lifestyle and mindset are not conducive to long-term success. Cody believes Green's boxing and takedown defense will be too much, and that Paddy's path to victory is narrow. He predicts Green by decision.
Daniel notes Paddy's early explosiveness but worries about his cardio, citing him pulling guard against Tony Ferguson. He thinks Bobby Green's age (37) and hands-down style could lead to him getting caught early. He leans Paddy but wants underdog odds to bet, expecting a close decision or early finish.
Daniel picks King Green, impressed by his performance against Jim Miller where he overwhelmed a durable opponent. He believes Green's wrestling defense will hold up against Pimblett, and that Green's volume and power will be too much. He notes Pimblett gets hit often and Green can exploit that.
Jeff picks King Green, citing Green's volume and power. He thinks Pimblett will eventually get caught and knocked out, though he's not sure if it happens this week. He believes Green's wrestling defense is adequate and that Pimblett won't get him down.
Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a horrible matchup for Paddy. He highlights Green's takedown defense (only taken down once in last 10 fights) and his advantage on the feet. Paul expects Green to cruise to a decision, though he acknowledges the risk of a bad split decision in the UK. He also mentions the possibility of betting Green by decision at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Paddy Pimblett by submission (rear-naked choke), likely in the first or second round. He believes Pimblett can exploit Bobby Green's tendency to give up his back when defending takedowns. The Guru notes that Green was easily controlled on the ground by Islam Makhachev and that Pimblett has a size and strength advantage. He also thinks Pimblett will use kicks at range and wait for grappling opportunities, rather than brawling. The Guru is influenced by a recent interview with Pimblett, which increased his confidence.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 62 of 105 | 59% | 90 of 134 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 1 | 106 of 165 | 64% | 151 of 217 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 8:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 29 of 55 | 52% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 1 | 70 of 104 | 67% | 76 of 110 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 18 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 46 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:20 | |
| 3 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 22 of 32 | 68% | 41 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 29 of 49 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 62 of 105 | 59% | 35 of 66 | 23 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 51 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 14 |
| Tony Ferguson | 106 of 165 | 64% | 73 of 127 | 13 of 17 | 20 of 21 | 66 of 109 | 0 of 0 | 40 of 56 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 29 of 55 | 52% | 16 of 32 | 10 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 70 of 104 | 67% | 43 of 72 | 11 of 15 | 16 of 17 | 54 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 22 | |
| 2 | Paddy Pimblett | 11 of 18 | 61% | 8 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Tony Ferguson | 19 of 27 | 70% | 16 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 18 | |
| 3 | Paddy Pimblett | 22 of 32 | 68% | 11 of 19 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Tony Ferguson | 17 of 34 | 50% | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 16 |
Angelo picks Paddy Pimblett confidently, stating that Tony Ferguson is a shell of his former self and that Paddy is a young, cocky prospect. He notes that Paddy is in his 'anti-40 parlay' and expects a dominant win, though he feels bad for Ferguson.
Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett to win by second-round submission, expressing strong disapproval that the fight is happening. He notes Tony Ferguson's six-fight losing streak, age (39), and accumulated damage, particularly after the Gaethje fight. Brady believes Ferguson is a shell of his former self, citing his poor performance against Bobby Green. He expects Pimblett to dominate and finish via submission or corner stoppage.
Cody picks Pimblett, arguing that Ferguson's last two fights showed he is shot, and that Pimblett's strength and top control will be decisive. He notes that Ferguson has given up 11 minutes of control time in recent fights and cannot get back up. Cody also mentions that Pimblett has taken a year off to refresh and is training with good partners, while Ferguson's personal issues and drinking have affected his performance.
Daniel Vreeland picks Paddy Pimblett, though he expresses sadness about picking against Tony Ferguson. He notes that Ferguson can no longer take a hit, especially after the Michael Chandler head kick. Vreeland believes Pimblett hits hard enough to knock out Ferguson, and that Ferguson's only path to victory is an early submission, which is unlikely. He expects Pimblett to win by knockout.
Jeff Fox picks Paddy Pimblett, stating that Ferguson is on a six-fight losing streak and has been finished in three straight. He notes that Pimblett is younger and more active, and that Ferguson's chin is gone. Fox believes Pimblett will finish Ferguson, possibly by knockout or submission.
Lucrative James is extremely confident Paddy Pimblett will win, calling it a setup fight. He believes Tony Ferguson is completely washed and on a seven-fight losing streak. He thinks Paddy will submit Ferguson, noting that Ferguson got submitted by Bobby Green and controlled by Charles Oliveira. He says Paddy should be a much heavier favorite and that the fight likely won't go to decision.
The host picks Pimblett but with low confidence, noting that Ferguson is a shell of his former self on a long losing streak. He expects Pimblett to walk Ferguson down, land big shots, and take him to the ground to grind out a decision, similar to how Oliveira and Dariush beat Ferguson. However, he is wary of the minus 285 line and acknowledges Ferguson could pull off a submission if he hurts Pimblett. He calls it a 'tailor-made' fight for Pimblett but expresses unease.
Paul picks Pimblett, stating that Tony Ferguson is 'absolutely cooked' after a six-fight losing streak. He notes that Ferguson has been submitted by Bobby Green and has no ability to get back up once taken down, as seen against Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush. Paul believes Pimblett's strength and top control will be enough, and that the year off will have refreshed Pimblett. He expects a good version of Pimblett.
The Guru picks Paddy Pimblett over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's decline, especially his wrestling defense and inability to get back up. He believes Pimblett is too big and strong, and that Ferguson's legs are shot from training with David Goggins. He predicts Pimblett will take Ferguson down, get his back, and submit him with a rear-naked choke in round one.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 63 of 155 | 40% | 97 of 194 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Jared Gordon | 0 | 60 of 103 | 58% | 100 of 143 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 6:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 29 of 70 | 41% | 29 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Gordon | 0 | 32 of 53 | 60% | 40 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 2 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 28 of 70 | 40% | 47 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Gordon | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 39 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 | |
| 3 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Jared Gordon | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 21 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 63 of 155 | 40% | 33 of 122 | 13 of 16 | 17 of 17 | 54 of 139 | 8 of 15 | 1 of 1 |
| Jared Gordon | 60 of 103 | 58% | 32 of 62 | 14 of 27 | 14 of 14 | 53 of 94 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 29 of 70 | 41% | 16 of 55 | 2 of 4 | 11 of 11 | 28 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jared Gordon | 32 of 53 | 60% | 17 of 28 | 7 of 17 | 8 of 8 | 30 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Paddy Pimblett | 28 of 70 | 40% | 13 of 54 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 64 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Gordon | 24 of 46 | 52% | 13 of 32 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Paddy Pimblett | 6 of 15 | 40% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Gordon | 4 of 4 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pimblett (-250), Gordon (+210)
Round 1
The co-main event for this pay-per-view card is an unranked lightweight affair between boisterous Liverpudlian Pimblett (19-3, 3-0 UFC) and his relatively soft-spoken counterpart Gordon (19-5, 7-4 UFC). The UFC wants a star out of Pimblett, and they are building him up in a measured manner instead of throwing him to the top-ranked wolves. Many view Gordon as the next step up in competition. The third man in the Octagon for this pairing is referee Herb Dean, and they do decide to touch gloves even after some back-and-forth between the two. Pimblett crowds the American and kicks the side early, and he fires off a head kick and strings several punches together as Gordon shells up. Gordon, seemingly the smaller man by a wide margin, leaps forward to belt Pimblett in the face with a left hand. Pimblett wears it well and gets rocked with a left hand, and he is retreating as Gordon advances. Pimblett, with his head high and a tall stance, absorbs another left hand and a low kick to mix things up. The two trade leg kicks, with Gordon putting his hips into them as Pimblett resets and fires one off to respond. Gordon sticks “The Baddy” with two more left hooks, and Pimblett darts away and recovers to score two punches. In a flash, “Flash” rocks Pimblett with an overhand right, and he walks through a calf kick to get off another left. Pimblett lines several punches up one after the other, and Gordon blocks some while others split his guard. Pimblett ducks low to avoid a looping punch buzzing his way, and he swats away the arms before Gordon can slug him again. Pimblett jabs and flips out two high kicks in rapid succession, and Gordon keeps his guard high to defend the rest that follows. Gordon absorbs part of a jumping high kick, and he responds with a body kick and a left hook. Pimblett has two punches and a kick bounce off the guard, but his left hand gets through. Gordon does not slow, connecting with a big left and a calf kick. Pimblett pushes Gordon back with a head kick that is blocked, only for Gordon to respond with power. Gordon gets stung with a counter and ducks down for a single, but Pimblett slithers his leg away in time. Gordon marches his man down and lands a left hand, and he counters a takedown by push Pimblett flat on his back. Pimblett threatens with a high guard that does not turn into anything, while Gordon lands a few punches before the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Round 2
Gordon claims the center of the cage and advances to throw hands, while Pimblett keeps his range and tosses out high kicks. Pimblett lobs a right hook that skims off the guard, and Gordon chips at the calf a few times. Pimblett gets a head kick through, and he is answered by two swarming punches from his foe. Gordon absorbs a body kick and then takes a front kick so he can close in and club Pimblett in the face with a left, but Pimblett sticks and moves. The Brit sneaks in an uppercut as Gordon gives chase, and Gordon checks a kick and tries to initiate a brawl. Pimblett gets the worst of the exchange and tries to escape out the back door, and he gets his chin checked with a powerful left hook. Gordon grabs hold of a single, and when he puts Pimblett down, Pimblett defends with an arm-triangle choke that is a sort of a side-naked choke, but Gordon is calm and does not fall into danger. Pimblett walks up the cage wall, and short offense on the inside opens a cut on the hairline of “Flash.” Gordon attempts another takedown, and Pimblett stuffs it and punches Gordon in the back of the head repeatedly. Gordon stays pressed tightly to his man before suddenly breaking free and blasting Pimblett in the face with two punches. Gordon gets cracked with a right, but he fires off a left to back Pimblett off. A few Pimblett punches collide with the guard, and they trade low kicks until Gordon pushes forward in pursuit of a takedown. Pimblett defends against the wall and elbows the side of the head until Gordon bails on it, and Gordon grinds his man until Pimblett shoves him away. Pimblett unloads with two punches and sneaks up a head kick, but Gordon is right there to brawl away with him. Pimblett pushes off with his fingers out, and one jams into Gordon’s eye to cause a pause with 15 seconds left in the round. Pimblett receives a hard warning for his fingers stretching out or poking out, and they resume with a slugfest. Pimblett catches Gordon at the end of a right hand, and he loads up on a few punches and a front kick until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Round 3
The lightweights touch gloves to initiate the final frame, and Gordon advances while Pimblett defends a potential takedown. Gordon clasps his hands and dumps the Brit on his face, and Pimblett defends with a kimura. Pimblett climbs back up and is lifted with a knee, and he puts his hands on the mat to take knees on the jaw out of the equation. Gordon aggressively pursues a double, and Pimblett considers a front choke but cannot find the neck when Gordon switches things up for a single. The grind is firmly embraced by “Flash,” who settles for heavy shoulder pressure and takedown tries, while Pimblett is stifled to little more than an elbow or a knee. Gordon suddenly changes levels for a double, and this fails as Pimblett elbows him in the back of the head. Dean calls for the fighters to work, and Pimblett explodes to break away. Gordon scores a left hook, and he powers forward with a second before jamming Pimblett up against the wire. Gordon squeezes and clings to the Brit, and he trips Pimblett out to his knees but cannot ground him. Gordon pursues a double, and he ends up settling to trip Pimblett out and dump him to the floor. Pimblett slides out the back door and looks to take dominant position, but Gordon bursts back upright as Pimblett holds onto him. Pimblett lands a short knee on the inside and gets wrenched to his knees, and Pimblett jumps on to take his back as the fight ends. We have reached the judges’ scorecards for the first time of the night, and scores could definitely go either way depending on how the second and third rounds were evaluated. Either way, the meteoric rise of Pimblett has definitely hit a speed bump in the form of “Flash” Gordon, win or lose.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
The Official Result
Paddy Pimblett def. Jared Gordon via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Pimblett, believing he is the better striker and grappler. He notes that Pimblett outgrappled Jordan Leavitt, who was considered a better grappler. However, he warns that Gordon has legit wrestling and could take Pimblett down and hold him there, as Leavitt took him down three times. He suggests the best bet is Pimblett inside the distance (decision no action) if the odds are reasonable.
Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett, citing his power and dangerous grappling, while noting Jared Gordon's poor durability and lack of finishing ability. He expects Pimblett to hurt Gordon on the feet or lock in a submission, likely in the second round. He does not agree with the -250 price but sees Pimblett as the more likely finisher.
Cody picks Paddy despite acknowledging he has been fading him in previous fights. He thinks Paddy's wrestling, back-taking, and rear-naked choke are key, and that Paddy has a massive reach advantage. He notes Paddy's durability and wild style but believes Jared Gordon is not the guy to expose him. He expects Paddy to use grappling to grind out a decision or late submission.
Connor picks Pimblett, reasoning that Gordon is not a powerful striker and will fall into clinch scrambles where Pimblett is dangerous. He notes Gordon repeatedly gives up his back on the mat, and Pimblett is a skilled backtake artist. Connor is hesitant but believes Gordon's flaws will lead to a submission loss.
Daniel Levi picks Paddy Pimblett to win inside the distance, though he expects Jared Gordon to be competitive early. He notes Gordon's superior volume and top control, but believes Pimblett is a 'big moment fighter' who can turn the tide with a knockdown or submission. Levi thinks Gordon may win the first round or two, but Pimblett will eventually find a finish. He does not bet this fight, preferring to watch.
Lock picks Jared Gordon as his dog of the night, believing his style will give Paddy fits. He thinks Gordon will keep his foot on the gas, push the pace, box, and grind out a decision, as long as he stays conscious. He notes that Paddy has faced adversity in every UFC fight but Gordon is the best fighter he's faced. Lock likes the betting line at +217 and sees a possible pump and dump on PredictionStrike at 80 cents, though he acknowledges Gordon has a ceiling.
Paul leans towards Jared Gordon as a dog, having faded Paddy in all his UFC fights. He thinks Paddy's wrestling defense is suspect and he has been hurt in fights. He notes Gordon's skills and value at plus money, but is hesitant because Paddy has won close fights before. He is pot-committed to fading Paddy but acknowledges the risk.
The MMA Guru picks Paddy Pimblett over Jared Gordon by rear-naked choke. He expects Gordon to be winning early with cage pressure, but Pimblett's speed and power will catch Gordon, leading to a scramble where Pimblett takes the back and chokes him out. He notes the odds are too wide and considers it a close fight, but believes Pimblett's finishing ability prevails.
Zane reluctantly picks Pimblett, agreeing with Connor that Gordon will give up his back in scrambles. He notes Gordon is a better wrestler but Pimblett will let himself be taken down to create grappling exchanges. Zane is not confident, saying if Gordon loses it's his own fault.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 17 of 39 | 43% | 30 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 4 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 41 of 48 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 18 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 7 of 8 | 87% | 26 of 27 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 3:32 | |
| 2 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 15 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 17 of 39 | 43% | 14 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 22 | 8 of 9 | 5 of 8 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 16 of 22 | 72% | 5 of 8 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 12 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 10 of 21 | 47% | 9 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 7 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 7 of 8 | 87% | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Paddy Pimblett | 7 of 18 | 38% | 5 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 9 of 14 | 64% | 2 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pimblett (-245), Leavitt (+205)
Round 1
Dan Movahedi will oversee what is one of the most anticipated bouts of the evening. Pimblett, as expected, gets a huge pop from the crowd. Pimblett takes the center of the cage and pressures with punches. Leavitt responds with a single leg. “The Monkey King” briefly gets his foe down and maintains the clinch when Pimblett stands. Pimblett defends with a guillotine, but Leavitt lifts him up and executes a big slam. “The Baddy” maintains his hold on the choke and he has Leavitt trapped in his full guard. Leavitt is able to pop his head free and Pimblett stands up. Leavitt presses his foe into the fence and Pimblett jumps guard for a guillotine. Leavitt avoids the submission and maintains a body lock as the Cage Warriors vet stands. Leavitt continues to grind away in the clinch, making Pimblett work to defend takedowns against the fence. Leavitt clings to a single leg before Pimblett lands a couple hard elbows to the side of the head. Pimblett finally gets some space at about 45 seconds. Pimblett uses the opportunity to land a jumping kick before threatening with a guillotine. Pimblett takes the back in the waning seconds and drops a few punches from above before the horn. 10-9 Leavitt.
Round 2
Pimblett gets to work right away but can’t find the range on his initial combination. Leavitt answers with a front kick. Pimblett again blitzes forward with punches, but Leavitt is doing well to move away thus far. A right hand lands for Leavitt before he secures a single leg and shoves his foe into the fence. Pimblett defends with his back to the fence and lands an elbow. Leavitt drops low but Pimblett frames a choke and then lands a knee to the had that seems to hurt Leavitt, who falls to his knees. The maneuver allows Pimblett to take his foe’s back, and he’s got Leavitt’s right arm trapped in the body triangle.
With Leavitt having just one arm free to defend, Pimblett is able to lock in a tight rear-naked choke. Leavitt can only resist for a few seconds before he’s forced to tap.
Like Molly McCann before him, Pimblett leaps from the Octagon to celebrate his victory in the arena with the fans.
The Official Result
Paddy Pimblett def. Jordan Leavitt via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R2 2:46
Angelo picks Paddy Pimblett, noting he is getting favorable matchups and will likely win a fun decision. He highlights Paddy's striking volume and smooth grappling, but acknowledges he is hittable and has zero percent takedown defense (though small sample size). He suggests a moneyline bet or a prop on Jordan Leavitt inside distance decision no action if Leavitt is tough enough to not get finished.
Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett to win by second-round knockout. He notes Pimblett has improved significantly, especially in striking and power. Leavitt is one-dimensional and slows down as the fight goes on. Pimblett should have advantages on the feet and in cardio, and he expects a knockout in the second or third round.
Cody confidently picks Paddy Pimblett, stating he can win wherever the fight goes. He notes Pimblett has superior striking, better boxing, good chin, and solid submission defense. Cody points out that Leavitt's wrestling is not good enough to take Pimblett down, and his striking lacks power. He believes Pimblett can take Leavitt down if he wants and ground and pound him. Cody acknowledges the line is inflated but thinks Pimblett's skills are clearly better.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Paddy Pimblett, viewing this as another showcase fight. He believes Pimblett can keep the fight standing and overwhelm Leavitt, who he sees as one-dimensional with poor stand-up. Levi notes that Leavitt's best chance is early success, but if that doesn't happen, he expects Leavitt to gas out. He also mentions the crowd factor and Leavitt's questionable mentality, saying he doesn't see a grown man that twerks beating Pimblett.
Leavitt doesn't have the wrestling, striking, or cardio to beat Pimblett. Paddy will show dominance with big strikes and finish him. This is a step down in competition for Pimblett. No doubt about it.
Paul picks Jordan Leavitt by decision at +800, calling it an outlier in the market. He admits he is a Paddy Pimblett hater and thinks Leavitt might be able to get top position and hold on. Paul acknowledges the line is wide and that Leavitt would need clear rounds to win a decision, especially in the UK. He says he doesn't have to lose much money to potentially win.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Paddy Pimblett to win by first-round KO. He believes Pimblett's size, strength, and explosivity will be too much for Leavitt. Leavitt's stand-up is poor, and Pimblett will stuff takedowns and land big shots. He predicts a flying knee or uppercut combo leading to a vicious KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Kazula Vargas | 7 of 9 | 77% | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Kazula Vargas | 7 of 9 | 77% | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo picks Rodrigo Vargas (Kazula Vargas) with a 51-49 edge, citing Paddy's poor chin and tendency to get hit. He notes that Vargas hits harder than Paddy's last opponent and is less hittable. He acknowledges Paddy's superior ground game but thinks if Paddy stands and trades, his chin will be tested. He calls it the hardest pick on the card and says the odds are crazy (Paddy at -500).
Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett to win by submission. He notes Vargas has poor takedown defense (25%) and is content to stay on his back, which won't work against a black belt like Pimblett. Brady also mentions Vargas is 36 and has fought weak competition. He sees Pimblett getting takedowns and finishing on the mat, possibly late.
Cody picks Vargas as a dog, citing Paddy's poor striking defense and chin-up stance. He thinks Vargas has better stand-up and leg kicks, and notes Vargas's sneaky guillotine. He believes Paddy's hype is overblown and that Vargas can win if it stays standing.
Daniel Levi picks Paddy Pimblett confidently, having bet him earlier at -320 in a parlay. He views Vargas as a sacrificial lamb, too slow and hittable, and believes Pimblett will finish him. Levi notes that Vargas's wins are questionable (e.g., against Zubaira Tukhugov) and that he lacks the tools to exploit Pimblett's flaws. He expects a highlight-reel KO or submission, as Pimblett is motivated by showmanship and stardom.
Pimblett should use his grappling to dominate Vargas, who was taken down by Rongzhu. Pimblett has good top pressure and submissions, and Vargas won't be ready for that approach. The fight doesn't go to decision at -270 is a good parlay piece. Pimblett isn't top-10 material, but this is a squash match. I'm picking Pimblett via second-round submission.
Paul picks Paddy, arguing that Vargas is old and has poor grappling and takedown defense. He believes Paddy's grappling will be the difference, and that even if it stays standing, Paddy has better volume and cardio. He acknowledges the price is high but thinks Paddy wins.
The Guru picks Paddy Pimblett but thinks the odds (-400) are too high; he should be around -200. He predicts a first-round submission via rear-naked choke after a hip toss. He acknowledges Vargas is a solid prospect and notes Pimblett has been dropped before, but believes his grappling will be the difference. He expects a back-and-forth on the feet before Pimblett takes over.
Expert Picks (4)
Connor picks Chandler, arguing that despite Chandler's recent losses, he remains a powerful wrestler and striker who has hurt every opponent he's faced. He notes that Pimblett's cardio is suspect and that Chandler's functional aggression in later rounds could be decisive. Connor believes Pimblett's striking has improved only in that he makes fewer mistakes, but he still lacks the tools to handle Chandler's pressure and power. He sees Chandler's wrestling as a key advantage, even if Chandler's technique has declined.
Daniel Levi notes that Paddy Pimblett destroyed Michael Chandler, outstriking him 8 to 1 and winning by TKO via elbows in round three. He calls it one of the best bets of the year at minus 150. He believes the market hasn't caught up on Pimblett yet, offering value.
Lucrative James picks Paddy Pimblett to win, citing Chandler's volatility and potential decline. He notes that Chandler has been out of the octagon for two years waiting for Conor McGregor, which may have aged him. He believes Pimblett has better durability, range control, and fight IQ. He expects Pimblett to find a submission, possibly a guillotine, as the fight progresses. He acknowledges Chandler's power and wrestling but thinks Pimblett can weather the early storm and take over.
Zane picks Pimblett, but hesitantly, because he sees Chandler as prone to creating scrambles and giving up his back, which is Pimblett's strength. He notes that Chandler is a powerful wrestler but has been reckless and hittable, and that Pimblett's submission game could capitalize on Chandler's tendency to get into messy positions. Zane acknowledges that Chandler has the tools to win and that this should be a bridge too far for Pimblett, but he feels Chandler's willingness to engage in chaos favors Pimblett.
Comments (1)
Chandler went takedowns and the wrestling tired him. Paddy was massive
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