Career Averages - Rafael Fiziev
Career Averages - Ignacio Bahamondes
Rafael Fiziev
Ignacio Bahamondes
Rafael Fiziev - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaurĂcio Ruffy | 0 | 36 of 66 | 54% | 37 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 1 | 55 of 88 | 62% | 60 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MaurĂcio Ruffy | 0 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 21 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | MaurĂcio Ruffy | 0 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 1 | 37 of 60 | 61% | 39 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaurĂcio Ruffy | 36 of 66 | 54% | 9 of 31 | 15 of 19 | 12 of 16 | 34 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 55 of 88 | 62% | 45 of 77 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 42 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MaurĂcio Ruffy | 16 of 33 | 48% | 2 of 12 | 7 of 11 | 7 of 10 | 14 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 18 of 28 | 64% | 13 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | MaurĂcio Ruffy | 20 of 33 | 60% | 7 of 19 | 8 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 37 of 60 | 61% | 32 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 20 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-122), Fiziev (+102)
Round 1
Itâs a strikerâs delight in the âfeatured fight of the nightâ slot, as lightweights in need of a big win lock âem up. âAtamanâ Fiziev (13-4, 7-4 UFC) may have struggled having to face Justin Gaethje twice in the span of about two years, but he righted the ship last June by taking out Ignacio Bahamondes. On the other side of the equation, Fighting Nerds staple Ruffy (12-2, 3-1 UFC) saw his mighty win streak come to a crashing halt last year when the co-headliner Benoit St. Denis wrangled and tapped him. This ranked lightweight contest where only man will remain in the top 10 when the dust settles will be officiated by referee Dan Movahedi. The heavy hitters touch gloves before handling their business.
Ruffy in a wide stance holds the center of the cage, avoiding a sweeping low kick while keeping his lead hand dangerously low. The head movement allows Ruffy to dodge a sudden head kick, and he answers with a quick leg kick. Fiziev slowly works his way forward, cutting off the cage and darting in behind a single left hand. Ruffy tosses out another kick, and Fiziev drills him with one that is far heavier. Fiziev ducks away from a tie-up attempt and goes low with another hard kick. Ruffy is not responding well to the calf kicks from the Tiger Muay Thai striking instructor, and Fiziev pressures him all the way to the wall to force a clinch. Ruffy turns him around, and Fiziev is able to escape out the side and nail the body with a kick. Ruffy offers a spinning elbow that is not accurate, and Fiziev walks him down without fear of reprisal.
Ruffy steps in to strike, and he gets caught with a pair of punches and a surprise head kick. Fiziev keeps Ruffy on the back foot, whipping him with kicks to remain pinned to the wall. Ruffy chains a low kick into a step-in knee, and Fiziev barely dodges in time. Both men go to the body, with tit-for-tat powerful single striking exchanges. Ruffy largely throws one at a time, while Fiziev walks through them and fires of his own combos. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Round 2
The athletes meet in the middle, with Fiziev starting off with strong body kicks. Ruffy replies with a solid right hand to back him off, and he spins with a back kick that Fiziev evades in time. Fiziev kicks low and then to the ribs, and he ducks under a sweeping left hand. Ruffy sneaks in a right hand over the top, and he partially checks a low kick. Fiziev rushes in with a left hook, and he keeps his opponent skirting on the back wall. They trade punches, with Fiziev taking a low kick on the way out that he does not defend well. Ruffy prods out a few jabs and is met with a hard body kick, and he winds up with a huge right hand that Fiziev takes flush.
Fiziev spins with a wheel kick and bounces off, and he resets without Ruffy taking advantage of it. Fiziev kicks at the front calf, and is answered with one from his opponent. Fiziev digs a right to the midsection, and then ducks in to go left to the liver. Ruffy retreats, and he takes low kicks on both sides. Ruffy reaches out with a right, and he bats Fiziev upside the head with a standing back fist. Fiziev walks Fiziev down and boots him in the liver again, and he gets backed off with a straight jab but is right in front of Ruffy. Ruffy measures his man and blasts Fiziev in the face with a right hand down the pipe, and Fiziev goes squirrely and on ice skates trips around the cage barely able to stay upright. Movahedi thinks to step in, but allows them to keep fighting. Ruffy does not go wild, instead picking his shots and methodically clobbering Fiziev with ground strikes. Fiziev still has his head on a swivel, and he sways and moves so that he can work his way back to his feet, but after several more blistering right hands, he is in a bad way as his balance has completely abandoned him.
Ruffy is able to bully Fiziev down to the ground again, partly due to Fiziev clinging to consciousness with figurative stars over his head like a "Street Fighter" character, and he unloads with a brief but final, concussive bombardment of punches until Movahedi does intervene.
This is a huge triumph for Ruffy, earning easily the biggest win of his career by putting away a renowned muay thai striker and trainer.
The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. Rafael Fiziev R2 4:30 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Rafael Fiziev, stating he is the better traditional striker and has shown he can wrestle and grapple, which is a key advantage. He notes that Ruffy is creative and powerful but was frozen by takedowns in his last fight. Fiziev has dog in him and made adjustments in his last fight. Angelo sees value at minus 115 given their resumes.
Big Brady slightly leans toward MaurĂcio Ruffy in a close striker's delight. He notes Fiziev has slowed down in the third round historically and didn't look great against Gachi after injury. Ruffy is a high-level striker with flashy spinning attacks and won't fade. Brady sees it as a 29-28 split decision either way, but expects Ruffy to take over late.
Cody believes Fiziev is undervalued as a slight underdog. He criticizes Ruffy's reliance on flashy knockouts and low volume, noting that Ruffy was outstruck by James Llontop and only landed 3 significant strikes before his wheel kick KO of Bobby Green. He praises Fiziev's veteran savvy, volume, and ability to mix in wrestling, predicting a close decision win for Fiziev.
Connor picks Fiziev, arguing that Ruffy is a smoke-and-mirrors fighter who is not a natural counter puncher and struggles when pressured. He notes that Fiziev is a superior technician with good takedown defense and that Ruffy's only path to victory is a lucky knockout. He also points out that Ruffy's wins are against slow or limited opponents, while Fiziev has fought elite competition.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ruffy as a dog, viewing the line as a market overcorrection. He believes Ruffy is a special striker who can match Fiziev's speed and technique, and that Fiziev has slowed down since his ACL surgery. Vreeland also notes that Ruffy has improved by training with Volkanovski and that Fiziev lacks a ground threat, making this a striking match where Ruffy can win.
James picks Ruffy to win by KO, citing Ruffy's youth, distance control, and timing advantage. He believes Fiziev is on a downtrend and may be hesitant to engage. James notes Ruffy's training with Volkanovski and that Fiziev's wrestling won't be effective. He sees Ruffy's durability and power as key factors.
Fiziev is a nasty Muay Thai striker with good speed, combinations, and countering ability. He has improved his wrestling, as shown in his last fight where he landed four takedowns. Ruffy struggles with grapplers and was broken mentally by Saint Denis. Fiziev's durability is ironclad, and he should push the pace, counter effectively, and mix in takedowns. The host is baffled that Fiziev is the underdog and expects a finish in round two or three.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ruffy is overvalued due to his flashy style and that Fiziev is a more complete fighter. He highlights Fiziev's ability to mix in takedowns and his experience against top competition. He expects Fiziev to win a close decision.
The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, citing his superior striking, timing, and ability to chop at opponents with kicks. He notes Ruffy's weaknesses in fundamentals and predicts Fiziev will win by decision, possibly 29-28. He expects Ruffy to have a good third round but Fiziev's technical edge will prevail.
Zane picks Fiziev, emphasizing that Ruffy is limited strategically and relies on time and space to set up shots. He notes that Fiziev is a capable, controlled striker who can crowd Ruffy and take him down if needed. He also mentions that Ruffy's takedown defense is poor and that Fiziev's only losses are to elite fighters like Gaethje and Gamrot.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 62 of 113 | 54% | 87 of 141 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 50 of 147 | 34% | 62 of 165 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 17 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 13 of 46 | 28% | 13 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 28 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 23 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 42 of 75 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 17 of 57 | 29% | 26 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 62 of 113 | 54% | 31 of 72 | 25 of 34 | 6 of 7 | 52 of 96 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 10 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 50 of 147 | 34% | 23 of 108 | 13 of 17 | 14 of 22 | 47 of 139 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 17 of 25 | 68% | 4 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 13 of 46 | 28% | 2 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 15 | 13 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 15 of 28 | 53% | 8 of 20 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 20 of 44 | 45% | 7 of 30 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 30 of 60 | 50% | 19 of 42 | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 8 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 17 of 57 | 29% | 14 of 52 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 52 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bahamondes (-125), Fiziev (+105)
Round 1
The co-main event is a true just bleed delight if there ever was one. UFC chief Dana White might even attach his âIf you donât know, now you knowâ sticker of approval to this lightweight collision. Fiziev (12-4, 6-4 UFC), amped up to put a three-fight skid behind him, challenges vicious Chilean Bahamondes (17-5, 6-2 UFC) to fisticuffs. There is no more that needs to be said, as these two thrillers can take things into their own hands. Referee Marc Goddard will be there in case something goes awry, but otherwise hopes to have next-to-no involvement in this 155-pound scrap. Gloves are touched before they are traded.
Bahamondes uses his range as an advantage early, using his beanpole legs and arms to touch Fiziev before Fiziev can get to him. The stork-like legs from Bahamondes reach the mark first, but Fiziev is quick and nails Bahamondesâ leg on the way back. Bahamondes tries a kick from the other side that is not checked, and Fiziev crashes forward to drive home a few punches to the body. Fiziev checks a kick and switches stances, landing his own thudding kick. Bahamondes gives him one right back, and Fiziev ends a combo of inaccurate fists with an accurate calf kick. Fiziev connects with a clean body kick, and Bahamondes is still hesitant to engage with power.
The two crash together, with Fiziev going to the body as Bahamondes responds upstairs, and when Fiziev takes a step back, Bahamondes peppers him with kicks to the middle and low. A one-two from Bahamondes is out of range, despite measuring much longer in the arms, and Fiziev gets to him with a fierce body kick. Bahamondes splits the guard with a jab, and Fiziev blitzes him but does not land flush with anything. Both fighters constantly switch stances, mirroring one another until Bahamondes breaks up the dance party with a head kick attempt. Fiziev parries it and goes to the midsection. Fiziev lunges forward and snaps the head to the side with a strong left hook, the hardest punch of the fight thus far. Bahamondes misses with a spinning wheel kick, but his spinning back kick plants firmly on the midsection. Bahamondes tries an axe kick, and Fiziev comes up short on a one-two but scores a body kick at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Round 2
The lightweights measure one another with distant strikes early, and Fiziev uses his Matrix-like dodging ability to avoid a one-two and a buzzing head kick. Bahamondes races forward and grabs hold of the Azerbaijani fighter, where he pursues a single but goes nowhere fast. Fiziev breaks and cracks him with a left hook, one that forces Bahamondes to pursue the grappling again. Bahamondes leans on the Tiger Muay Thai instructor, but Fiziev turns him about and elbows him up top and pounds his body with his fists. Bahamondes attempts a pair of knees when setting up a brief Thai plum, and Fiziev shakes him off and leans to dodge the wheel kick he sees coming. Fiziev thumps Bahamondes with three strikes when Bahamondes lands one, and he smoothly dodges three kicks aimed at his head. Bahamondes pecks at Fiziev coming in with a jab, and he gets off leg kicks from either side before Fiziev can get to him. Bahamondes lands to the body, and Fiziev does the same with his shin. Bahamondesâs body kick is not dodged, nor is the end of his head kick.
Fiziev is caught at the end of that kick but not before landing some strikes of his own, and he shakes off the kick and shoots for a double. Bahamondes considers a guillotine when falling over, but he lets go and starts looking for upkicks. Fiziev does not fall victim to them, telling Bahamondes to stand up. Fiziev shoots again for a double, and this time, Bahamondes jumps guard for his guillotine. âAtamanâ no-sells it, yanking his neck out of danger and posturing up to land a few hammerfists. Bahamondes tugs his toes on the wireâit is a rough day for enforcing fence grabs, even as Goddard admonishes the fouling fighterâand works to his feet. Fiziev knocks Bahamondes off his feet as Bahamondes tries a kick, and the crowd goes wild thinking he got the one-hitter quitter knockout. Instead, it was the end of the round bell that stopped the action.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Round 3
The fighters hug it out to start the last round, and Fiziev thanks him for the embrace by plugging Bahamondes with a crisp left hand. Bahamondes loops back a one-two at him as if to answer his volley, and his head kick zooms past the elusive Fiziev. Bahamondesâ front kick is out of range, and Fiziev jabs him back to keep him honest. When Bahamondes ties up the muay thai aficionado, Fiziev works him over with body shots and knees until Bahamondes abandons the effort. Bahamondes strides forward and plants a one-two on the chin, and he drills an advancing Fiziev with a stern right hand. Once more, Bahamondes scores a solid right hand, and he spins with a back kick that misses the mark. When he settles his feet, he surprises Fiziev with a few punches, and Fiziev pushes him over and considers taking top position.
Rather than playing in the guard, however, Fiziev stands up and motions that Bahamondes should follow him. Bahamondes strings several punches and kicks together, and his head kick still misses the mark. Fiziev gets up close and personal with body shots and knees, and Bahamondes bullies him to the wall in pursuit of a double. When that fails, Bahamondes settles for knees to the body, and Fiziev is warned for grabbing his opponentâs glove. Fiziev forces a separation and eats a right hand, going to the body first and firing upstairs. Bahamondes stands in the pocket and trades, connecting with heavy offense and putting more volume together. Fiziev does not like this, his eye busted open, and he shoots for a double. Bahamondes is stuck on his back absorbing elbows and body shots, but he gives Fiziev several elbows back. Both fighters go ballistic with elbows, and Fiziev backs off with seconds to go. Bahamondes spins with a wheel kick, and when he falls over, he attempts a leglock. A bloodied Fiziev calmly steps out of it and rains down punches until the horn sounds, concluding a decent match.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes (29-28 Fiziev)
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev (30-27 Fiziev)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev (29-28 Fiziev)
The Official Result
Rafael Fiziev def. Ignacio Bahamondes via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his length, striking, and multiple ways to win. He acknowledges that Fiziev is the better striker but thinks Bahamondes is on a run and has more finishing options. He notes that Fiziev may have slowed down after injuries and tough fights. He recommends exposure to both in multiple lineups.
Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev despite him being on a three-fight skid, noting that Fiziev's losses came against top competition (Gamrot, Gaethje twice) and one was on short notice. He believes Bahamondes is taking a step up in competition and that Fiziev's speed, power, and movement will cause problems early. Brady acknowledges Fiziev's cardio issues but thinks the fight goes to decision and that hometown judges will favor Fiziev in a close fight. He predicts a greasy, possibly controversial decision win for Fiziev.
Connor picks Fiziev, agreeing with Zane that Bahamondes' reversion to pocket fighting against Turner is a bad sign against Fiziev. He notes that Bahamondes has lost to short, explosive strikers before and that Fiziev is a much more polished striker than Bahamondes' recent opponents. He believes Fiziev's technical edge and the fact that Bahamondes hasn't proven his new style against a serious range striker make Fiziev the clear pick.
The host is surprised Bahamondes is the slight favorite. He thinks Fiziev may have handpicked his opponent to perform in front of his hometown crowd. He expects Fiziev's speed advantage and wrestling to thwart Bahamondes' distance striking, leading to a big shot or control time for a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his range and improved distance management. He believes Fiziev's size disadvantage and recent war with Justin Gaethje will be factors. He expects Bahamondes to pick Fiziev apart as the fight goes on, predicting a third-round finish.
Zane picks Fiziev, noting that Fiziev looked great in his return against Gaethje despite losing, and that Bahamondes has struggled against shorter, better range strikers like Ludovic Klein and John McDessie. He points out that Bahamondes' instinct to sit in the pocket and trade hooks plays into Fiziev's strengths, and that Bahamondes' new rangy style hasn't been tested against a serious striker. He believes Fiziev's technical advantage will be decisive even if he tires.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 1 | 72 of 134 | 53% | 98 of 163 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 68 of 119 | 57% | 81 of 134 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 17 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 22 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 1 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 34 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 17 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 39 of 61 | 63% | 47 of 71 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 42 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 72 of 134 | 53% | 56 of 117 | 9 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 41 of 92 | 26 of 34 | 5 of 8 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 68 of 119 | 57% | 20 of 61 | 43 of 52 | 5 of 6 | 49 of 100 | 14 of 14 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 12 of 21 | 57% | 7 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 15 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 21 of 32 | 65% | 6 of 16 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 5 of 5 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 21 of 52 | 40% | 16 of 47 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 39 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 8 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 17 of 40 | 42% | 6 of 24 | 9 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 39 of 61 | 63% | 33 of 55 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 38 | 18 of 23 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 30 of 47 | 63% | 8 of 21 | 21 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 41 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Connor picks Gaethje because he has more faith in Gaethje's cardio and durability than Fiziev's coming off a knee injury and short notice. He notes that Fiziev faded in their first fight and has not looked good since, while Gaethje's loss to Holloway was a stylistic nightmare that doesn't reflect his overall level. Connor believes Gaethje's jab and pressure will be too much for a rusty Fiziev.
Lucrative James picks Fiziev but is not confident due to intangibles like Gaethje's recent KO loss and Fiziev's knee injury layoff. He thinks Fiziev is the better striker and will land counters, but Gaethje could take over late if he pressures. He predicts Fiziev by KO, similar to his first fight prediction. He notes the line has moved from -250 to -155, indicating market correction.
Zane picks Gaethje, echoing Connor's reasoning about Fiziev's injury and short notice. He notes that Fiziev's pacing has always been a problem and that he tends to gas in round three. Zane also points out that Fiziev's style of crashing into Gaethje plays into Gaethje's strengths in the clinch and pocket. He is surprised by the betting line moving toward Fiziev.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 19 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 17 of 42 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 16 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 12 of 35 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 5 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 32 | 56% | 4 of 14 | 12 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 16 of 40 | 40% | 11 of 31 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 16 of 27 | 59% | 4 of 11 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 12 of 34 | 35% | 7 of 25 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiziev (-155), Gamrot (+130)
Round 1
The stakes are high for these two lightweights, as a victory in this main event could vault one man into the top echelon of the division. Fiziev (12-2, 6-2 UFC) tried to reach that level against Justin Gaethje, while Gamrot (22-2, 1 NC; 5-2 UFC) was turned away recently by Beneil Dariush. Two men â plus referee Herb Dean â enter, and one man will leave, figuratively speaking. The two contenders are intense but fully respectful, despite competing for rival camps of Kill Cliff FC and American Top Team, respectively. Fists are bumped, and they are about to be traded. Both men look for the middle of the cage to start off, and they do not throw a single strike the first 30 seconds. One finally comes, with a jab from Gamrot. Fiziev jabs the body in response, and he scrapes the midsection with a body kick. Gamrot gets off a leg kick, and he hops back when Fiziev feints towards him. Gamrot comes up missing the mark with a head kick, and Fiziev also throws an inaccurate strike up high. Gamrot steps through a jab to lands a right hand on the chin, and Fiziev does not even budge. When Gamrot attempts this blitz a second time, Fiziev strings together five punches in rapid succession to force the Polish fighter to retreat. They fire off low kicks at the same time, and Gamrotâs foot comes up and pops the cup. They both bump fists after the foul and do not take a moment. Fiziev reaches his man with a right hand, and Gamrot shoots down low as he possibly can to lift Fizievâs leg up in the air. Fiziev miraculously stays on his feet from the attempt, and he skirts away and resets. Fiziev works the body with a kick, and he cannot avoid a one-two that comes back his way. Gamrot has a high kick glance off the shoulder, and Fiziev returns fire with a strike to the body. Fiziev swipes a right to the body, and he partially deflects a leg kick. Gamrot parries a body kick, and he springs forward with a double jab. Fiziev misses with a front kick and is able to escape a trio of punches from his opponent. Gamrot does reach his man with a jab, only for Fiziev to reply with a front kick up the middle. Fiziev hammers the lead leg with a kick that sets Gamrot down, and Gamrot spins and works his way back up without issue. Gamrot races after Fiziev, looking for another takedown, and a fast and furious scramble ensues as Fiziev hits his seat and pops up. The horn sounds, and both men high five after the final exciting exchange.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Round 2
The lightweights bump fists to open the second round, and Gamrot is the initial aggressor. This leads him to walking into a body kick, but he presses forward to pursue a takedown. Fiziev wildly moves out of the way from the first and second attempts, but Gamrot successfully grounds him on the third effort that is chained together. Fiziev works his way towards the wall, and Gamrot looks to hold his weight on him and drag Fiziev down. Gamrot hunts for a trip, a single, a double, or anything he can muster, and Fiziev is a stone wall for this grappling exchange. Fiziev manages to push away, and he winds up and fires a body kick that pounds into Gamrotâs torso and lands with a loud thump. As Fiziev pulls it back, his left knee torques the wrong way, and Fiziev collapses and yelps in pain. Not knowing exactly what happened, Gamrot sprints towards his fallen foe and swings a few punches, and Dean is quick to rush to Fizievâs aid and call in the medical staff. Before realizing that his opponent suffered an injury, Gamrot sprints over to his corner, where he lets out several shouts of victory. Gamrotâs excitement cools quickly when he discovers that Fiziev is hurt, and he appears saddened about this. Despite the result, Gamrot does emerge the victor and is looking towards the future. In his post-fight interview, while he states his ultimate goal is to fight champ Islam Makhachev, he does not believe he is ready for that. Instead, he calls for a fight against who he perceives to be the most dangerous grappler in the division, Charles Oliveira. Unfortunately for Gamrot, Oliveiraâs dance card is full at the moment, as Oliveira will be rematching Makhachev next month for his old belt. If Gamrot fights either the winner or loser of that championship bout at UFC 294, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Mateusz Gamrot def. Rafael Fiziev R2 2:03 via TKO (Knee Injury)
Angelo picks Fiziev for the first time against Gamrot. He notes Fiziev is the better striker and has shown a willingness to go to war. He thinks over five rounds, Fiziev will eventually catch Gamrot. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling and durability, and says Gamrot at the current moneyline is great value.
Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev to win by decision, noting he would max-bet Fiziev if it were a three-round fight. He praises Fiziev's striking power and improvement, but worries about his cardio in the championship rounds. He expects Fiziev to stuff takedowns early and bank the first three rounds, possibly knocking Gamrot down. He acknowledges Gamrot's relentless pace and never-slow-down cardio could make it close late.
Cody leans towards Gamrot as a live underdog, emphasizing that Fiziev's cardio fades in later rounds and Gamrot's wrestling can exploit that. He notes Gamrot has never been finished and has a strong chin, but acknowledges Fiziev's striking advantage early. He prefers to bet Gamrot live at a better price rather than pre-fight.
Daniel sees this as a very close fight that could go either way, so he leans toward the underdog. He highlights Gamrot's relentless takedown attempts (21 vs. Tsarukyan, 19 vs. Dern) and his unique low-single wrestling style that Fiziev hasn't faced. He worries Fiziev may fade in the later rounds under constant grappling pressure, leading to Gamrot taking over in rounds 3-5. He acknowledges Fiziev's athleticism and takedown defense but thinks the volume of attempts will eventually pay off.
Lucrative James picks Fiziev, citing his takedown defense and Muay Thai balance to stuff Gamrot's single-leg attempts. He believes Fiziev will land critical damage on the feet and potentially finish Gamrot. Even if it goes late, he thinks Gamrot will be too damaged to capitalize on his cardio edge. He placed 3 units on Fiziev at -136.
The host picks Gamrot as an underdog, reasoning that Fiziev fades in later rounds while Gamrot has proven cardio and grappling over five rounds. He notes Fiziev's 90% takedown defense but believes Gamrot's relentless pressure and chain wrestling will wear him down, leading to a decision win in rounds 3-5. The host also mentions the over 4.5 rounds as a good prop.
Paul leans slightly towards Fiziev, citing his striking advantage and improved takedown defense early. He worries about Gamrot's low volume and that judges may not reward takedowns without damage. However, he is not confident enough to bet pre-fight and will wait for weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, criticizing Mateusz Gamrot's striking as limited to a one-two and takedown attempts. He believes Fiziev's body kicks and counter shots will be effective, and predicts a first or second round TKO. He notes Fiziev's strength and low center of gravity, and argues that the 'secret better half' of lightweight (including Fiziev) tends to beat grapplers like Gamrot. He acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling but thinks Fiziev's danger will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 103 of 171 | 60% | 106 of 174 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 97 of 169 | 57% | 97 of 169 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 23 of 36 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 27 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 27 of 48 | 56% | 29 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 32 of 49 | 65% | 32 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 53 of 87 | 60% | 54 of 88 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 38 of 70 | 54% | 38 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 103 of 171 | 60% | 81 of 142 | 14 of 15 | 8 of 14 | 84 of 147 | 19 of 24 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 97 of 169 | 57% | 38 of 100 | 52 of 61 | 7 of 8 | 81 of 151 | 16 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 23 of 36 | 63% | 11 of 21 | 7 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 20 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 27 of 50 | 54% | 11 of 29 | 15 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 25 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 27 of 48 | 56% | 22 of 41 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 23 of 44 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 32 of 49 | 65% | 12 of 27 | 18 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 43 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 53 of 87 | 60% | 48 of 80 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 41 of 70 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael Fiziev | 38 of 70 | 54% | 15 of 44 | 19 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 60 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiziev (-148), Gaethje (+124)
Round 1
It might not be the fight some were hoping to see, but if their first rumble was any indication, Gaethje (25-5, 8-5 UFC) vs. Fiziev (12-3, 6-3 UFC) 2 should be crackerjack material. Due to the late notice of this lightweight rematch, the two will be scheduled for three five-minute rounds instead of 5x5 like when Gaethje was planning on facing Dan Hooker. In a contest that could easily headline any Fight Night offering out there, these two strikers plan on picking right where they left off. Referee Jason Herzog has donned his hard hat to protect from any errant blows once these two mighty gladiators start swinging. There is a sign of respect before the anticipated brawl, as the men high-five in the center of the cage. Immediate chants of âUSAâ in support of Gaethje drown out any other audio in the building, and they die down as the fighters do not commit to much. When Gaethje lands his first full-throated strike, Fiziev tackles him to the canvas with a surprise takedown. Gaethje scrambles to get out of the precarious predicament, and Fiziev quickly tries for another level change. The man from Kazakhstan successfully puts Gaethje down again, where he winds up sitting in an inverted triangle choke position dropping down elbows. Gaethje calmly remains in the position until exploding out, and he resets in the center of the cage and takes a right hand over the top. Fiziev jabs his foe in the stomach and then comes up top with another, only for Gaethje to walk him down and uppercut him in the jaw. Gaethje wings a right hand that lands at the end of it, and it is one-and-done as he slowly creeps forward towards his adversary. Fiziev pushes his foe back with a jab to the chest and a leg kick, and his jab keeps Gaethje from engaging fully. Gaethje swings his way in, and Fiziev greets him with a knee and a tie-up. Fiziev rips another two knees to the body, and Gaethje strikes back and swings a right hand up top. Fiziev targets the body with a kick and stings him with a left hand, and he goes after another audible body kick. Gaethje closes in on him as if he wants to take the fight down, but Fizievâs balance holds up as he knees Gaethje in the ribcage. Gaethje slashes with an elbow up close and forces a break, and he unloads a right hand square on Fizievâs eye socket. Fiziev kicks, and he recoils it awkwardly. Gaethje shoots for a takedown, and when it fails, he catches Fiziev with a pair of punches. Gaethje goes wide with a kick, and Fiziev sneaks in a left right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Round 2
The lightweights touch gloves to get back to it, and Gaethje leads the dance with two inaccurate hooks. Gaethje ducks and lashes out with a right and a left, staying in Fizievâs face until Fiziev partially lands a groin kick. Herzog calls time, and Gaethje takes a little more than 15 seconds before heâs good to go again. Fiziev lunges with a left hand, and his right that follows scores effectively. Gaethje dings him with two hooks, and he absorbs a leg kick before he can back out. âThe Highlightâ come up short on most of his swings, but he does clip the striking coach with a left hook. Fiziev considers a takedown, bailing on it and taking a few punches on the way out. Fiziev lands a couple in the pocket, but he wants to get out of the brawl and into his preferred technical range. Fiziev looses a body kick and a left to the ribs, and he waves Fiziev on for more as he walks him down. Gaethje slips and comes up top with a vicious overhand right, and he absorbs a body kick and has a head kick skim his dome. Gaethje shakes it off, asks for more and puts his hands on Fizievâs face. Fiziev misses with a massive right hand, and he kicks low and is checked. Fiziev steps in with a knee to the torso, and Gaethje gives him a clean uppercut to the body and a right hand to break up the brief clinch. Gaethje intercepts his foe with a short left, and he ducks into an uppercut. Fiziev times a perfect knee when Gaethje ducks, and Gaethje slips a few punches and blasts Fiziev with a brutal uppercut that knocks him clean off his feet. Gaethje pounces to try to finish the job, smothering Fiziev when Fiziev turns to his knees and starts beating on his side. Fiziev grits his teeth and works to his feet, but Gaethje drills him with a right hand on the way. Fiziev swings a head kick that bangs into the raised guard, and he leans back to watch a Gaethje head kick pass him by. The tense, exciting round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 3
There is a final high-five to open the final stanza, and Gaethje is quick to engage and swat his left hand. Gaethje looks for his uppercut, and it just grazes the beard. Fiziev backs off to unload a spinning wheel kick that bangs into Gaethjeâs chin, and Gaethje wipes his nose and paws out a left hand. Fiziev chops at the lead leg, and Gaethje unloads three successive uppercut right hands that catch Fiziev cleanly. Fiziev stands firm in the pocket and cracks Gaethje with a left hand, and Gaethje waves him on. Fiziev whips kick after kick to the body, with Gaethje calling him on every time. Fiziev kicks him upside the head, and Gaethje drills him with an uppercut on the way out. Gaethje trips and stumbles but gathers himself, tying Fiziev up and clipping him with a right hand. Fiziev blasts him with punches and knees to the body, while Gaethje punches him in the head time and time again. One fierce right hand from Gaethje lumps up Fizievâs left eye in a hurry, and the two get in the clinch and practiced muay thai with ferocious knees. Gaethje breaks and swings a sneaky head kick up top, catching Fiziev in the side of the head leaned over. Gaethje pushes his foe against the wall and delivers three crisp uppercuts on the jaw, and he takes a step back and slips. Gaethje pours it on with power punches, and he uppercuts Fiziev a few more times when they are tied up. Fiziev knees Gaethje in the belly any time they clinch, and Gaethje scores the right hand frequently when breaking. Gaethje strings a jab and an uppercut into a takedown effort, where he pushes Fiziev to the wire but does not ground him. Gaethje imposes his pressure and works the body, and Fiziev knees him back up close. When Fiziev tries to escape, Gaethje catches him on the way out. Fiziev sits on two punches and a high kick, and Gaethje laughs it off and kicks Fiziev in the face. Gaethje unloads a swarm of wild hooks, rocking Fiziev and hurting him badly. Fiziev steels himself and knees Gaethje, and the horn sounds to conclude the dramatic lightweight tilt. What a fight, living up to the hype about as much as it can.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (29-28 Gaethje)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (29-28 Gaethje)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje (29-28 Gaethje)
The Official Result
Justin Gaethje def. Rafael Fiziev via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is confident in Fiziev because he is the most technical striker in the division and Gaethje struggles with technical strikers. He notes Fiziev has phenomenal takedown defense and has defended takedowns from elite grapplers. He thinks Gaethje's power is always a threat but Fiziev should outclass him on the feet.
Big Brady picks Fiziev, citing his technical striking and youth. He questions Gaethje's durability due to accumulated damage and notes Gaethje looked tired in the Oliveira fight. He believes Fiziev can knock Gaethje out, predicting a second-round KO. He expects a war but trusts Fiziev's cardio and skills.
Cody picks Fiziev, citing Gaethje's accumulated damage and declining durability. He notes Gaethje's reckless style leaves him open to counters, and Fiziev's technical striking and ability to intercept shots will be key. He mentions Gaethje's wrestling is an option but he chooses not to use it. He doesn't love the moneyline but sees Fiziev as the cleaner striker. He has no strong prop lean but says the pick is Fiziev.
Connor picks Fiziev because Gaethje has become a back-foot counter puncher who no longer pressures. He notes that Gaethje's new approach makes him vulnerable to fighters who can draw out his counters and come back with combinations, as Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier did. Fiziev is a fast, technical striker with good body work and defensive responsibility. Connor thinks Fiziev's ability to slip and counter will be key, and that Gaethje's lack of subtle adjustments will hurt him. He also notes that Fiziev's kicking game and creativity will give Gaethje trouble.
Jacob is a big fan of Fiziev and thinks he is the best striker in the UFC regardless of weight class. He notes Fiziev knocked out his former striking coach Brad Riddell. He thinks Fiziev will expose Gaethje's striking as high school level with precise counters. He expects a dominant win.
Fiziev is a technical Muay Thai striker with good defense and cardio, while Gaethje is a brawler who may be slowing down at 34. Fiziev's technical advantage should allow him to counter Gaethje's wild hooks and leg kicks, leading to a knockout. Gaethje's durability is a concern, and Fiziev is the younger, hungrier fighter.
Paul echoes Cody's sentiment, picking Fiziev as the better striker. He notes Fiziev's takedown defense was impressive against dos Anjos, and Gaethje is unlikely to wrestle. He acknowledges Gaethje's power and volume make him live, but thinks Fiziev's technical edge wins out. He says minus 225 is about right and he won't bet it, but Fiziev is the pick.
The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev to win by TKO, calling it a terrible matchup for Gaethje. He notes Fiziev is a kickboxer who doesn't have to worry about takedowns, allowing him to focus on striking. Gaethje's weaknesses include leg kicks, body shots, and a high guard that leaves his body open. Fiziev has the best body shots in the division and will chop the legs, rip the body, and eventually land a body-head combo for a KO. He also mentions Gaethje's accumulated damage and recent KO loss as factors.
Zane also picks Fiziev, citing Gaethje's increasing unwillingness to pressure. He notes that Gaethje has struggled against consistent technical strikers who are not easily breakable, like Poirier and Alvarez. Fiziev is a fast, powerful kicker who can work at range and in the pocket. Zane thinks Fiziev's defense and combination punching will be effective, and that Gaethje's habit of overcommitting on counters will leave him off-balance. He also mentions that Fiziev's body work could slow Gaethje down, and that this is a good matchup for Fiziev at the right time.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 54 of 110 | 49% | 90 of 162 | 2 of 16 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 6:13 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 64 of 159 | 40% | 92 of 192 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 25 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 44 | 38% | 20 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 13 of 32 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 4 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 28 of 41 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 5 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 1 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 54 of 110 | 49% | 31 of 80 | 12 of 14 | 11 of 16 | 50 of 106 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 64 of 159 | 40% | 32 of 102 | 27 of 52 | 5 of 5 | 62 of 155 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 9 of 26 | 34% | 5 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 14 of 41 | 34% | 8 of 26 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 19 of 36 | 52% | 10 of 26 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 44 | 38% | 6 of 27 | 9 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 9 of 22 | 40% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 17 of 38 | 44% | 7 of 26 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Rafael Fiziev | 15 of 23 | 65% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 12 of 27 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Rafael Fiziev | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiziev (-200), dos Anjos (+170)
Round 1
The battle for Rafael supremacy comes to a head in this main event, in the only fight tonight containing two ranked competitors. Former lightweight king dos Anjos (31-13, 20-11 UFC) hopes to push towards another run at the title, but he will have to get through âAtamanâ Fiziev (11-1, 5-1 UFC) to get there. This intriguing clash between veteran and upstart, grappler and striker, and old lion vs. young thundercat will be joined by referee Mark Smith. When the cage door closes, the Rafaels touch gloves ahead of their 25-minute tilt -- if needed â and they are ready to finally get after it. Fiziev strikes first with a sharp body kick, and dos Anjos looks to cut him off and he tosses out a low kick. Fiziev answers with another body kick, and he does a dodge reminiscent of the film âThe Matrixâ as he leans back from a high kick. Dos Anjos steps in with a left hand that catches âAtamanâ on the chin, and he ducks a looping left to pop Fiziev with a punch of his own. The Brazilian charges in to press Fiziev against the cage, and he looks for a body lock to slow Fiziev down and starts spamming knees to the thigh. Fiziev keeps his balance when dos Anjos looks for a level change, and dos Anjos comfortable crushes Fiziev against the wire. The full body weight of the former champ is pressed against Fiziev, who finds himself pinned and unable to get any offense off from up close. Fiziev quickly turns to get out, and he steps in with a knee and a right hand as they split. Fiziev delivers two kicks to the body, and dos Anjos replies with one. Fiziev answers with another, and he kicks high and jumps in the air with a knee. Two punches to the body lead to one to the head from the Tiger Muay Thai fighter, and he just misses with a whipping head kick. Dos Anjos thumps a leg kick low and keeps his guard high and tight to block incoming fire until he can shoot for a double. Fizievâs takedown defense holds up on the attempt, and he absorbs a few knees and an elbow before spinning out. Fiziev steps in with an elbow, and he catches dos Anjos with a pair of right hands. Fiziev sneaks in a left hand that shakes dos Anjos up, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Round 2
The lightweights clap hands to start off the second frame, and they meet in the center of the Octagon. Fiziev looses a head kick that misses the mark, and dos Anjos pounds him in the torso with a kick. Dos Anjos steps in with a left, and he takes a body shot on the way in. Fiziev catches a second loud body kick, and he clinches up but separates when nothing comes of it. The Brazilian loads up on a left hand, and Fiziev pushes him off and jams his thumb in dos Anjosâ right eye. Dos Anjos takes 30 seconds to blink it out, and when they resume, Fiziev kicks high quickly. Dos Anjos marches him down and catches him with a left hook, and he dives forward for a single. Fiziev spins around, and dos Anjos grabs hold of his back with his hands clasped. Fiziev turns back around to stop it, and he pushes off to split and get back the center of the cage. Dos Anjos keeps light on his feet and strides forward with a straight left hand, and he steps on Fizievâs foot to hold him in that position. Fiziev once more uses the elastic that is his spine to bend backwards and dodge a head kick, and he counters with an uppercut and a left hook. Fiziev pushes out a jab and takes one clean one back, and dos Anjos kicks him in the ribs. Dos Anjos hunts for a takedown, and Fiziev deftly reverses him and hip tosses dos Anjos to his knees. Fiziev gets up first, and he pushes dos Anjos back to the wire, but cannot grind him there. âAtamanâ wings an uppercut, and dos Anjos steps in to clinch in the middle of the Octagon. With a body lock, dos Anjos attempts to take Fiziev down, but once more, he is stopped in his tracks from doing so. Dos Anjos scores a knee on the break, and he pokes at Fiziev with an uppercut on his way back. Dos Anjos reaches him with a right, and Fiziev responds with a powerful one that stuns dos Anjos momentarily. The ex-champ gathers his thoughts and kicks low, and he reaches out with a short right hook. Fiziev kicks him in the body and gets clipped with a long left hand, and the bell rings to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Round 3
Between rounds, dos Anjos is concerned about a cut below his right elbow. His corner tells him to forget about it, and there is a split on his forearm from blocking a kick from the previous round. The round opens with a few punches from Fiziev, and dos Anjos darts forward in pursuit of a double-leg takedown. Fiziev posts off his arm to keep himself upright, and dos Anjos doggedly pursues it to ground Fiziev. The Brazilian kicks Fizievâs foot out to get the takedown he was seeking, and Fiziev climbs right back up without concern. As dos Anjos hangs on in the clinch, Fiziev looks at the video screen to find a way out. He does this as dos Anjos goes after a single, yanking his leg free and gaining some separation to work several body kicks. After absorbing a few more blows, dos Anjos darts in with a double, and he pushes Fiziev back but is nowhere close to taking him down. Smith tells them to work as they just hang on in the clinch, and dos Anjos blasts a knee to the liver as Fiziev splits off. The lightweights trade low kicks, and Fiziev wings a short left hook that gets dos Anjosâ attention. A straight right hand from Fiziev makes dos Anjos blink it out, and Fiziev is the one to initiate a clinch, pushing the former champ up against the chain-link fencing. Dos Anjos turns the corner to break apart, and he connects with a chopping leg kick only to eat a jump knee in the process. Dos Anjos tries to keep his head movement to evade multiple straight punches aimed at his head, and the two men trade one after the other in the middle of the cage. The round ends as Fiziev connects with a right.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Round 4
Ever the veteran, dos Anjos stays a little longer on his stool between rounds, prompting Smith to hurry his corner out and get him back so that they can fight. Fiziev starts off the round with several quick kicks, and dos Anjos plods forward and the two bang heads together. The Brazilian plows forward to go after a takedown, and as dos Anjos does not get it, Smith tells him to work. Fiziev gets the break he seeks, and he splits the guard with a left hand. âAtamanâ chains four punches together in a combination, and dos Anjos level changes to push in for a takedown. Fiziev spins him around and jams the ex-champion into the fence, and the position stalls until Fiziev steps back. Dos Anjos nails Fiziev with a flying knee and a few punches, and he attempts to use this momentum to take the fight down, but Fiziev is quick to stop him. Dos Anjos grabs the gloves to break out of this position, only to get warned for his attempt. They break up, and dos Anjos pops Fiziev with a left. The Brazilian snatches up a leg for a single, and Fiziev hops back and keeps his balance. Dos Anjos meets him in the center of the cage to throw hands, and dos Anjos steps in with a back-elbow. Fiziev fights for a sweep takedown, and dos Anjos keeps his feet beneath him and punches his way into a takedown effort. Tired of struggling to get the takedown, âRDAâ opts to lift Fiziev clear off the ground and slam him down to the mat. Dos Anjos gloms on to Fiziev while not doing anything from top position, prompting Smith to clap his hands and tell dos Anjos to work. Dos Anjos stays squeezed with his shoulder to the chest of his opponent, and Fiziev powers up with one second to spare. They both land a single punch as the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 dos Anjos
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 dos Anjos
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 dos Anjos
Round 5
Smith tells dos Anjos to stay busy in his positions between rounds, and the final round kicks off with a glove touch. The Brazilian kicks low and Fiziev kicks high, and dos Anjos pushes out with a straight left hand.
Fiziev jumps in with a knee, and when that gets blocked, he releases a left hook that totally demolishes dos Anjos. The former champion falls crashing to the mat, and Fiziev leaps over and hammers him with two consciousness-depriving punches before Smith steps in to call a halt to this contest.
Dos Anjos sits up to protest the stoppage, but there is nothing he can do, as the fight is over. Fiziev runs off to celebrate, earning easily the biggest win of his career and answering several questions that loomed about his talents. âNow we know who is the greatest Rafael in the UFC,â Fiziev shouts in his post-fight interview. He then calls for tennis star Rafael Nadal to determine the ultimate Rafael supremacy. Fiziev doubles down on the callout, boldly claiming that he can beat Nadal in his own sport. It is exceptionally unlikely this will come to fruition, but he did punch his ticket to a huge fight at 155 pounds next. No matter who Fiziev faces next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Rafael Fiziev def. Rafael dos Anjos R5 0:18 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos as a +170 underdog, citing his grappling, size advantage, cardio, and durability. He notes Fiziev is the better striker but has questionable cardio, especially in a 5-round fight. He points out that RDA has not lost in 6 years without being taken down, and Fiziev is unlikely to initiate takedowns. He already has a moneyline bet on RDA at +170.
Big Brady picks Rafael dos Anjos, citing the five-round distance as a key factor. He notes that Fiziev has never seen the fourth or fifth round and has slowed down in third rounds of past fights, while RDA has proven cardio and experience in championship rounds. He expects RDA to mix in takedowns to test Fiziev's 95% takedown defense and cardio, potentially taking over in later rounds. He predicts a close decision win for RDA, acknowledging Fiziev could knock him out early.
Cody believes Fiziev has the advantage in striking with better hands and kicks, and his takedown defense is strong. He thinks Fiziev's cardio is sufficient to secure early rounds and then survive if needed. He sees RDA as a gatekeeper and Fiziev as a rising contender, calling it a passing of the torch.
The host discusses the Fiziev vs RDA fight but does not place a bet on it. He acknowledges the value on RDA as an underdog and respects those who pick him, but he personally keeps the fight out of his betting card. He mentions having Fiziev in a parlay but does not elaborate on a clear pick. He notes that Fiziev is younger, faster, and stronger, but RDA is durable and could win by decision. Ultimately, he does not commit to a side.
Paul thinks the price on Fiziev is too wide and expects to get RDA at a better price closer to fight time. He notes RDA's wrestling could be a factor, especially in a five-round fight, and that Fiziev's takedown defense hasn't been fully tested. He calls it a dogger pass situation but leans RDA.
The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, believing RDA's style is tailor-made to lose to Fiziev. He notes Fiziev's body work, takedown defense, and youth advantage. He predicts Fiziev will win the first three rounds decisively, possibly a 4-1 decision, with RDA making a late resurgence but ultimately losing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 59 of 115 | 51% | 62 of 118 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Brad Riddell | 0 | 66 of 123 | 53% | 66 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 21 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Riddell | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 22 of 50 | 44% | 23 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Riddell | 0 | 30 of 59 | 50% | 30 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 16 of 24 | 66% | 18 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Brad Riddell | 0 | 17 of 29 | 58% | 17 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 59 of 115 | 51% | 23 of 72 | 20 of 26 | 16 of 17 | 59 of 114 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Riddell | 66 of 123 | 53% | 36 of 78 | 22 of 30 | 8 of 15 | 64 of 121 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 21 of 41 | 51% | 9 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Riddell | 19 of 35 | 54% | 10 of 18 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 7 | 19 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 22 of 50 | 44% | 8 of 30 | 8 of 13 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Riddell | 30 of 59 | 50% | 14 of 38 | 13 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 28 of 57 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 16 of 24 | 66% | 6 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Riddell | 17 of 29 | 58% | 12 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
A veritable strikerâs delight is on tap for the co-headliner, when 10-1 lightweights looking to claw their way towards top-10 consideration meet. Both Riddell (10-1, 4-0 UFC) and Fiziev (10-1, 4-1 UFC) are riding impressive win streaks, and for one, that stretch will come to an end within the next 15 minutes. Referee Herb Dean has already laced up his running shoes as he is ready for wherever the fight takes place. The two friends touch gloves to seal the cage around them, and away we go with what many call the potential âFight of the Night.â Riddell leads the dance with a few jabs, more to find his distance than to connect with them. Riddell scores an inside leg kick, and he hops out of the way when a low kick flies back at him. Neither man engages with anything of note for the first minute, and the most emphatic strike to that point is a body kick from the Kiwi. Fiziev just misses with a high kick and a spinning kick that follows, and Riddell acknowledges the strikes that buzz by him. Fiziev gets off a left hand on the temple, and Riddell dances back and kicks out in response. Riddell kicks low and punches high, and Fiziev backs him up to the wall but does not engage like normal. Fiziev sits down on a body kick, and he pulls back on a right hand but does not throw it. Both lightweights start trading furiously, right in front of one another as if a switch was just flipped, and they both crack each other and then slow down to get their bearings. Riddell appears to get the better of the exchange as he comes forward to follow up. While the fighters continue to commit to heavy strikes, the commentary booth drifts off into a discussion about first-person shooter video games, even while fistic violence plays out before them. Riddell lands, Fiziev responds, and Riddell follows up as they show no fear and little interest in defense while they just blast each other one after the next. Fiziev calmly walks forward to back Riddell into the wall, and he boots the liver only for Riddell to kick him back in the same spot. They go tit-for-tat, but Fiziev lands a few more kicks. Riddell ends the round with a sharp combination, and a few punches get around the guard to punctuate the close first frame.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riddell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Round 2
Gloves get touched to begin the second round, and Riddell strikes first with a leg kick that makes Fiziev turn around. Fiziev catches a kick, and they sling heavy leather. A Fiziev body kick lands cleanly, and Fiziev beats him his man to the punch with a right hand to follow. Riddell blocks a few strikes, but an elbow gets through his guard to cut him open on the corner of his left eye. âQuakeâ pays it no mind as he throws two punches that land about as flush as they possibly could. Fiziev plants a left hand square on the cheek, and they both throw bombs and clip one another. Riddell jabs his way into throwing a right hand over the top, and Fiziev rolls with it and continues his forward pressure to keep Riddell trapped on the outskirts of the Octagon. Riddell swings with bad intentions, and he ducks back when Fiziev zooms a kick past his head. Fiziev slips a punch and nails Riddell in the face with a right hand, and he follows this up with a leaping knee right on the chin. âAtamanâ pushes his foe up to the wall so he can knee him in the midsection, and he lands one more knee on the separation before kicking the body. Riddell darts forward to attack, only for Fiziev to greet him and not budge an inch. Fiziev continues to batter his opponentâs body, and Riddell throws hands that miss the mark. Riddell tries to stutter-step his way in, and he pops Fiziev with a left hook but comes up short on a subsequent right over the top. The round ends before Riddell can reach his man with any additional strikes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Round 3
The doctor comes in to check Riddellâs cut, which splits across the outer half of his eyebrow, but it is not gushing blood into his eye so the doctor clears him to continue. When the last round opens, they hug it out as they are having a blast together. Fiziev counters Riddell on the way in, and he throws a leg kick that gets caught. âQuakeâ times a level change perfectly to put Fiziev down to the mat, but he can only keep him there for a few seconds before Fiziev springs back up. When they both stand up, they trade powerful blows, and the impact of these strikes echoes through the arena. Riddell targets the body and head to set up strikes, and Fiziev has a cut opened up above his own left eye. When Fiziev overcommits to a punch, Riddell attempts to take him down, but this time, Fiziev stops it from succeeding. They trade punches and leg kicks, trading vicious shots and not backing down.
When Riddell circles to the right, Fiziev spins a wheel kick that clocks Riddell square on the side of the head. âQuakeâ is stunned as his eyes go wide, and he falls to the ground while trying to snatch hold of a leg, very possibly out on the way down.
Dean is quick to stop the fight, seeing that the lights are on but no oneâs home for Riddell. When Riddell comes to, he is still very wobbly and has a hard time standing, after suffering the first knockout loss of his career. Meanwhile, Fiziev puts himself on the map with an ultra-rare, spectacular spinning wheel kick knockout.
The Official Result
Rafael Fiziev def. Brad Riddell R3 2:20 via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick)
Angelo picks Fiziev, citing his volume and diversity of strikes. He notes Riddell has more power but waits for the perfect shot, while Fiziev will already have landed kicks. Angelo is nervous about Riddell's power but sticks with Fiziev.
Big Brady picks Brad Riddell as a slight underdog, but with low confidence. He notes the fight is very even and should be a pick'em. He highlights Fiziev's tendency to slow down in later rounds, while Riddell maintains his pace. He also notes Riddell may mix in takedowns, though Fiziev has 100% takedown defense. Brady thinks Riddell's volume and cardio advantage could be key, but acknowledges Fiziev lands harder shots. He sides with Riddell slightly.
Cody also picks Riddell, emphasizing his volume and technical striking. He points out that Fiziev's power shots led to him gassing out against Bobby Green, while Riddell has superior cardio and accuracy. Cody believes Riddell's takedown defense has improved and that he can win by outworking Fiziev, especially in the later rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Rafael Fiziev by a close decision, acknowledging that Fiziev is explosive and accurate in the first two rounds but tends to slow down and get hit more in the third. He notes that Fiziev's output remains high throughout, but his defense deteriorates. He expects Fiziev to win the first two rounds and edge out a decision, though he admits it could go either way.
Jacob picks Fiziev, noting his wild style may impress judges. He thinks Fiziev's aggression and volume will sway scorecards in a close fight. Jacob acknowledges it's a coin toss but leans Fiziev.
I like Riddell. He is the better boxer with better cardio and tends to get stronger as fights go on. Fiziev starts fast but slows down, and he has lost round three in every fight. Riddell will punish Fiziev's naked kicks and land cleaner shots. I expect Riddell to win a decision, and the decision prop at plus 190 is solid. A round three finish is also live.
Paul picks Riddell, citing his volume and technical kickboxing. He notes that Fiziev was out-struck by Bobby Green and faded in the third round, while Riddell has shown cardio and takedown defense improvements. Paul believes Riddell's familiarity with Fiziev from training together gives him an edge, and that Riddell can win by outworking him over three rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Brad Riddell to win by 29-28 decision. He expects Fiziev to win the first round with kicks and takedown defense, but Riddell's body shots and takedown pressure will wear Fiziev down. Riddell will take over in the second and third, landing heavy body hooks and knees, winning the last two rounds.
Ignacio Bahamondes - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 1 | 32 of 62 | 51% | 46 of 83 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1:17 |
| Tofiq Musayev | 0 | 34 of 72 | 47% | 93 of 167 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 1 | 7:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 21 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tofiq Musayev | 0 | 11 of 32 | 34% | 20 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 | |
| 2 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 1 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Tofiq Musayev | 0 | 17 of 29 | 58% | 44 of 74 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:18 | |
| 3 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:07 |
| Tofiq Musayev | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 29 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 32 of 62 | 51% | 16 of 34 | 10 of 17 | 6 of 11 | 22 of 47 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 9 |
| Tofiq Musayev | 34 of 72 | 47% | 27 of 59 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 5 | 12 of 34 | 2 of 5 | 20 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 20 of 39 | 51% | 6 of 14 | 8 of 14 | 6 of 11 | 18 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tofiq Musayev | 11 of 32 | 34% | 6 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 5 | 8 of 25 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 9 of 16 | 56% | 7 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 8 |
| Tofiq Musayev | 17 of 29 | 58% | 15 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 26 | |
| 3 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Tofiq Musayev | 6 of 11 | 54% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
Angelo picks Ignacio Bahamondes despite acknowledging the danger of Terrance McKinney's chaotic pressure and wrestling. He notes that Bahamondes is a very good striker with length and volume, but his takedown offense is nonexistent and he can be outwrestled. Angelo believes Bahamondes' higher level of competition and striking advantage should carry him, but he is hesitant because McKinney could win by being chaotic and getting takedowns.
Big Brady picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by second-round submission via a 'club and sub' approach. He notes Musayev's poor grappling, having been submitted five times, but is concerned that Bahamondes has zero takedowns in the UFC. He thinks Bahamondes will hurt Musayev on the feet and then submit him. He likes Bahamondes' size, volume, and sneaky power, and believes he is improving his wrestling.
Cody thinks the line is too wide and Musayev has the grappling to exploit Bahamondes' takedown defense. He makes a small play on Musayev at plus money.
Connor picks Bahamondes but is hesitant, citing uncertainty about Bahamondes' current level due to recent wins over lower-level competition. He thinks Bahamondes has a danger edge with his size and will likely pressure Musayev, but he's not fully confident.
Daniel thinks Bahamondes will overcome early adversity from Musayev's explosive striking, then take over in later rounds due to his youth, reach, and Musayev being past his prime. He expects a decision or late finish.
The host thinks the odds are too wide in favor of Bahamondes (-322) and that Musayev could make it competitive, but he passes because there is not enough recent footage on Musayev to confidently bet him. Bahamondes has weaknesses (poor striking defense, takedown susceptibility) but Musayev is an unknown quantity with only one recent fight. The host reluctantly passes on both sides.
The host believes Bahamondes' striking and counter-striking will be too much for Musayev, who is reckless. He expects Bahamondes to pick Musayev apart and eventually land a big shot for a finish. He notes the under 2.5 rounds is intriguing due to Musayev's recklessness and Bahamondes' finishing ability.
Paul favors Bahamondes, citing his height, volume, and cardio. He believes Musayev's low volume and lack of wrestling will be issues.
The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes, noting his crafty striking and ground game. He believes Bahamondes is a better version of Daniel Zellhuber and will outlast Musayev's explosive first round. He predicts Bahamondes will finish Musayev by TKO in the second or third round, drawing parallels to his performance against Manuel Torres.
Zane picks Bahamondes because he trusts Bahamondes can fight at a pace when needed, and Musayev hasn't shown that pace. He notes that Bahamondes' losses came against wrestlers, which Musayev is not. He also mentions that Musayev's style of fighting on the back foot may not work in the UFC.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 62 of 113 | 54% | 87 of 141 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 50 of 147 | 34% | 62 of 165 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 17 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 13 of 46 | 28% | 13 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 28 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 23 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 0 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 42 of 75 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 17 of 57 | 29% | 26 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev | 62 of 113 | 54% | 31 of 72 | 25 of 34 | 6 of 7 | 52 of 96 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 10 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 50 of 147 | 34% | 23 of 108 | 13 of 17 | 14 of 22 | 47 of 139 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Fiziev | 17 of 25 | 68% | 4 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 13 of 46 | 28% | 2 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 15 | 13 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael Fiziev | 15 of 28 | 53% | 8 of 20 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 20 of 44 | 45% | 7 of 30 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafael Fiziev | 30 of 60 | 50% | 19 of 42 | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 8 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 17 of 57 | 29% | 14 of 52 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 52 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bahamondes (-125), Fiziev (+105)
Round 1
The co-main event is a true just bleed delight if there ever was one. UFC chief Dana White might even attach his âIf you donât know, now you knowâ sticker of approval to this lightweight collision. Fiziev (12-4, 6-4 UFC), amped up to put a three-fight skid behind him, challenges vicious Chilean Bahamondes (17-5, 6-2 UFC) to fisticuffs. There is no more that needs to be said, as these two thrillers can take things into their own hands. Referee Marc Goddard will be there in case something goes awry, but otherwise hopes to have next-to-no involvement in this 155-pound scrap. Gloves are touched before they are traded.
Bahamondes uses his range as an advantage early, using his beanpole legs and arms to touch Fiziev before Fiziev can get to him. The stork-like legs from Bahamondes reach the mark first, but Fiziev is quick and nails Bahamondesâ leg on the way back. Bahamondes tries a kick from the other side that is not checked, and Fiziev crashes forward to drive home a few punches to the body. Fiziev checks a kick and switches stances, landing his own thudding kick. Bahamondes gives him one right back, and Fiziev ends a combo of inaccurate fists with an accurate calf kick. Fiziev connects with a clean body kick, and Bahamondes is still hesitant to engage with power.
The two crash together, with Fiziev going to the body as Bahamondes responds upstairs, and when Fiziev takes a step back, Bahamondes peppers him with kicks to the middle and low. A one-two from Bahamondes is out of range, despite measuring much longer in the arms, and Fiziev gets to him with a fierce body kick. Bahamondes splits the guard with a jab, and Fiziev blitzes him but does not land flush with anything. Both fighters constantly switch stances, mirroring one another until Bahamondes breaks up the dance party with a head kick attempt. Fiziev parries it and goes to the midsection. Fiziev lunges forward and snaps the head to the side with a strong left hook, the hardest punch of the fight thus far. Bahamondes misses with a spinning wheel kick, but his spinning back kick plants firmly on the midsection. Bahamondes tries an axe kick, and Fiziev comes up short on a one-two but scores a body kick at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Round 2
The lightweights measure one another with distant strikes early, and Fiziev uses his Matrix-like dodging ability to avoid a one-two and a buzzing head kick. Bahamondes races forward and grabs hold of the Azerbaijani fighter, where he pursues a single but goes nowhere fast. Fiziev breaks and cracks him with a left hook, one that forces Bahamondes to pursue the grappling again. Bahamondes leans on the Tiger Muay Thai instructor, but Fiziev turns him about and elbows him up top and pounds his body with his fists. Bahamondes attempts a pair of knees when setting up a brief Thai plum, and Fiziev shakes him off and leans to dodge the wheel kick he sees coming. Fiziev thumps Bahamondes with three strikes when Bahamondes lands one, and he smoothly dodges three kicks aimed at his head. Bahamondes pecks at Fiziev coming in with a jab, and he gets off leg kicks from either side before Fiziev can get to him. Bahamondes lands to the body, and Fiziev does the same with his shin. Bahamondesâs body kick is not dodged, nor is the end of his head kick.
Fiziev is caught at the end of that kick but not before landing some strikes of his own, and he shakes off the kick and shoots for a double. Bahamondes considers a guillotine when falling over, but he lets go and starts looking for upkicks. Fiziev does not fall victim to them, telling Bahamondes to stand up. Fiziev shoots again for a double, and this time, Bahamondes jumps guard for his guillotine. âAtamanâ no-sells it, yanking his neck out of danger and posturing up to land a few hammerfists. Bahamondes tugs his toes on the wireâit is a rough day for enforcing fence grabs, even as Goddard admonishes the fouling fighterâand works to his feet. Fiziev knocks Bahamondes off his feet as Bahamondes tries a kick, and the crowd goes wild thinking he got the one-hitter quitter knockout. Instead, it was the end of the round bell that stopped the action.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Round 3
The fighters hug it out to start the last round, and Fiziev thanks him for the embrace by plugging Bahamondes with a crisp left hand. Bahamondes loops back a one-two at him as if to answer his volley, and his head kick zooms past the elusive Fiziev. Bahamondesâ front kick is out of range, and Fiziev jabs him back to keep him honest. When Bahamondes ties up the muay thai aficionado, Fiziev works him over with body shots and knees until Bahamondes abandons the effort. Bahamondes strides forward and plants a one-two on the chin, and he drills an advancing Fiziev with a stern right hand. Once more, Bahamondes scores a solid right hand, and he spins with a back kick that misses the mark. When he settles his feet, he surprises Fiziev with a few punches, and Fiziev pushes him over and considers taking top position.
Rather than playing in the guard, however, Fiziev stands up and motions that Bahamondes should follow him. Bahamondes strings several punches and kicks together, and his head kick still misses the mark. Fiziev gets up close and personal with body shots and knees, and Bahamondes bullies him to the wall in pursuit of a double. When that fails, Bahamondes settles for knees to the body, and Fiziev is warned for grabbing his opponentâs glove. Fiziev forces a separation and eats a right hand, going to the body first and firing upstairs. Bahamondes stands in the pocket and trades, connecting with heavy offense and putting more volume together. Fiziev does not like this, his eye busted open, and he shoots for a double. Bahamondes is stuck on his back absorbing elbows and body shots, but he gives Fiziev several elbows back. Both fighters go ballistic with elbows, and Fiziev backs off with seconds to go. Bahamondes spins with a wheel kick, and when he falls over, he attempts a leglock. A bloodied Fiziev calmly steps out of it and rains down punches until the horn sounds, concluding a decent match.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes (29-28 Fiziev)
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev (30-27 Fiziev)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev (29-28 Fiziev)
The Official Result
Rafael Fiziev def. Ignacio Bahamondes via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his length, striking, and multiple ways to win. He acknowledges that Fiziev is the better striker but thinks Bahamondes is on a run and has more finishing options. He notes that Fiziev may have slowed down after injuries and tough fights. He recommends exposure to both in multiple lineups.
Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev despite him being on a three-fight skid, noting that Fiziev's losses came against top competition (Gamrot, Gaethje twice) and one was on short notice. He believes Bahamondes is taking a step up in competition and that Fiziev's speed, power, and movement will cause problems early. Brady acknowledges Fiziev's cardio issues but thinks the fight goes to decision and that hometown judges will favor Fiziev in a close fight. He predicts a greasy, possibly controversial decision win for Fiziev.
Connor picks Fiziev, agreeing with Zane that Bahamondes' reversion to pocket fighting against Turner is a bad sign against Fiziev. He notes that Bahamondes has lost to short, explosive strikers before and that Fiziev is a much more polished striker than Bahamondes' recent opponents. He believes Fiziev's technical edge and the fact that Bahamondes hasn't proven his new style against a serious range striker make Fiziev the clear pick.
The host is surprised Bahamondes is the slight favorite. He thinks Fiziev may have handpicked his opponent to perform in front of his hometown crowd. He expects Fiziev's speed advantage and wrestling to thwart Bahamondes' distance striking, leading to a big shot or control time for a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his range and improved distance management. He believes Fiziev's size disadvantage and recent war with Justin Gaethje will be factors. He expects Bahamondes to pick Fiziev apart as the fight goes on, predicting a third-round finish.
Zane picks Fiziev, noting that Fiziev looked great in his return against Gaethje despite losing, and that Bahamondes has struggled against shorter, better range strikers like Ludovic Klein and John McDessie. He points out that Bahamondes' instinct to sit in the pocket and trade hooks plays into Fiziev's strengths, and that Bahamondes' new rangy style hasn't been tested against a serious striker. He believes Fiziev's technical advantage will be decisive even if he tires.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 17 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Jalin Turner | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 17 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 7 of 20 | 35% | 4 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 |
| Jalin Turner | 10 of 16 | 62% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 7 of 20 | 35% | 4 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 |
| Jalin Turner | 10 of 16 | 62% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Connor picks Turner because he sees a clear level gap: Bahamondes has never beaten a good UFC fighter and is a classic tall man who doesn't like fighting at distance, while Turner is a long-range striker with fast, straight shots. Connor notes that Bahamondes has poor defense and will struggle against Turner's reach and power. He also points out that Turner has fought much better competition and performed well in close fights.
Lucrative James picks Turner as an underdog, citing Turner's early power and finishing ability. He thinks Turner will land big shots early and potentially finish, as Bahamondes is hittable. He notes Turner's cardio issues but believes he can win by stoppage or even decision if he hurts Bahamondes early. He admits he needs more tape study but leans Turner.
Zane picks Turner, agreeing with Connor that Bahamondes is not a good range fighter and has poor defense. He notes that Turner is a nuclear puncher who is much faster and has a flexible striking game. Zane acknowledges Turner's occasional mental lapses but believes Bahamondes lacks the talent to exploit them. He is surprised by the betting line favoring Bahamondes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Manuel Torres | 2 | 31 of 58 | 53% | 36 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Manuel Torres | 2 | 31 of 58 | 53% | 36 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 20 of 43 | 46% | 9 of 30 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 12 of 35 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Manuel Torres | 31 of 58 | 53% | 25 of 46 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 8 | 11 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 29 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 20 of 43 | 46% | 9 of 30 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 12 of 35 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Manuel Torres | 31 of 58 | 53% | 25 of 46 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 8 | 11 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 29 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Torres (-118), Bahamondes (-102)
Round 1
Keeping things pushing, one of many combatants out of Entram Gym steps into the cage next, as Torres (15-2, 3-0 UFC) wants to keep his 93% finish rate high as can be at the expense of kick-happy Bahamondes (15-5, 4-2 UFC). While Torres sports an equal distribution of knockouts to submissions, the Valle Flow Striking ace Bahamondes vastly prefers to get things done on the feet. The bantamweight clash will be officiated by referee Marc Goddard, with the victor making a strong push to reach the outskirts of the top 15. They touch gloves. Torres reaches out with a low kick that comes up short, and Bahamondes does the exact same. Bahamondes reaches with a long pair of punches, and his leg kick also misses. Torres lands with a thudding kick, and he hits air as a right hand buzzes past the Chilean. Bahamondes reaches out with a jab at the end of a front kick, and Torres kicks him in the ribs and falls over. Torres jumps back up immediately and is no worse for wear, still out of range from most of Bahamondesâ kicks. Torres splits the guard with a strong left hand, and he knocks Bahamondesâ head around with three additional punches before Bahamondes can sprint away. Torres gets his hands on his opponent after Bahamondes tries a jump knee, rapping the body with short but mean right hands as well as a few knees. Torres breaks out of the clinch he set up, parrying a right hand and checking a calf kick. They catch one another in an exchange, but Torres appears to hit harder with his fists. Bahamondes hooks a kick around his head and rocks Torres, but Torres shakes it off and keeps his guard up to block a second head kick. Bahamondes hammers the midsection with his shin, and he parries a combination to rifle off a right hand that sends Torres crashing to the mat. Bahamondes jumps on top in hopes of finishing the job, but his hammerfists and punches do not seal the deal as Goddard asks for Torres to keep moving. Torres does just that, and he recovers enough to fight back to his feet. Torres charges in recklessly, knees still wobbled, and he lets Bahamondes have it with a short combination. Bahamondes just misses with a head kick, and
he snipes the charging Torres with another step-back right hand that short-circuits Torres. The Mexican awkwardly hits the mat with his leg bent back, and Bahamondes does not let him off the hook this time. Crouched down above Torres, Bahamondes releases a barrage of standing-to-ground punches as Torres can do nothing but shell up to cover his head.
Goddard sees that before long, Torres is no longer defending himself, and he steps in. Torres is quick to recover and embrace his victorious opponent, and Bahamondes has unquestionably punched his ticket to bigger fights going forward.
The Official Result
Ignacio Bahamondes def. Manuel Torres R1 4:02 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo leans Ignacio Bahamondes for three reasons: his length advantage, higher level experience, and the fact that Manuel Torres pulled guard in his last fight, which won't work against Bahamondes. He notes Bahamondes has good footwork and head movement, solid takedown defense, and came out aggressive in his last fight. However, he acknowledges Torres is dangerous and the fight could end early. He suggests a round under or 'fight doesn't go the distance' prop.
Big Brady flipped from initially leaning Torres to picking Bahamondes as a dog. He notes Torres is a beast in the first round (14 of 15 wins in round 1) but has never been past round 1.5. Bahamondes has shown ability to go into later rounds and weather storms. He predicts Bahamondes will survive an early onslaught and break Torres in the second round via knockout.
Daniel picks Ignacio Bahamondes, believing that if he survives the early storm, he will pick Torres apart with calf kicks, jabs, and spins. He notes Bahamondes' training with Khabib and Islam for grappling, and doubts Torres can maintain his high pace. He predicts a knockout for Bahamondes.
The transcript does not discuss this fight.
Fading the hype on Torres and going with the more experienced and technically better fighter in Bahamondes. He will touch up Torres, lean on his durability early, and then utilize superior technical striking to finish Torres in the second or third round.
The MMA Guru picks Manuel Torres. He describes Torres as a physical freak with incredible strength, comparing him to a lightweight version of Dricus du Plessis. He notes Bahamondes has had mediocre performances against similar competition, including a loss to Ludovic Klein where he was controlled on the ground. He also points out that Bahamondes was wobbled by a shorter fighter with a shorter reach, and Torres has more power and range.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 1 | 40 of 68 | 58% | 40 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Christos Giagos | 0 | 17 of 45 | 37% | 18 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 1 | 40 of 68 | 58% | 40 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Christos Giagos | 0 | 17 of 45 | 37% | 18 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 40 of 68 | 58% | 26 of 53 | 8 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 33 of 56 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Christos Giagos | 17 of 45 | 37% | 7 of 31 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 16 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 40 of 68 | 58% | 26 of 53 | 8 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 33 of 56 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Christos Giagos | 17 of 45 | 37% | 7 of 31 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 16 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans Ignacio Bahamondes because he believes Bahamondes' last loss was more about how good Ludovit Klein is rather than Bahamondes being bad. He acknowledges that Bahamondes has good takedown defense (85%) but that it failed in his last fight. He thinks Christos Giagos could win if he gets takedowns, but Angelo is on the Bahamondes side, though he admits he will be biting his nails over takedowns.
Big Brady picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by second-round submission. He notes that Giagos will likely have early success with takedowns and wrestling, but will fade as the fight goes on due to poor cardio. Bahamondes will grow into the fight and finish Giagos in the second round.
Cody agrees, pointing to Giagos's pattern of fading after round 1, as seen in the Zellhuber fight. He notes Bahamondes's length and reach may make it hard for Giagos to land early, and that Bahamondes has never been knocked out. Cody thinks Bahamondes will take control as the fight goes on, and that Giagos's takedown threat diminishes as he tires.
Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Ignacio Bahamondes, praising his stance switching, range, and opportunistic submissions. He dismisses Bahamondes' losses to Melsik Baghdasaryan and Ludovit Klein as forgivable, noting Klein's suspicious transformation. Vreeland sees Christos Giagos as an athletic journeyman who fades after the first round, lacking depth beyond spamming hooks. He expects Bahamondes to frustrate Giagos with range and dominate past round one, possibly by finish.
Bahamondes is a talented striker with nasty Muay Thai and improving grappling. Giagos has early finishing power but fades if he doesn't get the finish. Bahamondes can weather the early storm, then take over in later rounds with his striking and cardio. Expect a TKO in the second or third round.
Paul is confident in Bahamondes, citing his length, chin, cardio, and striking. He notes Giagos is explosive but fades after 6-7 minutes, and that Bahamondes's takedown defense and ability to get up will neutralize Giagos's early wrestling. Paul expects Bahamondes to take over in rounds 2 and 3, possibly by TKO. He also suggests live betting Bahamondes if he loses the first round.
The host dismisses Giagos as a 'pensioner killer' with wins over older fighters like Ricky Glenn, Soroano, and Carlton Minus. He notes Bahamondes' lanky frame (6'2" at lightweight) and recent wins over Roosevelt Roberts, Ronu, and Trey Ogden. He predicts Bahamondes will sleep Giagos, ignoring technique and focusing on size advantage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ä˝udovĂt Klein | 0 | 43 of 139 | 30% | 62 of 166 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 56 of 108 | 51% | 94 of 151 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 6:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ä˝udovĂt Klein | 0 | 7 of 33 | 21% | 16 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 48 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:45 | |
| 2 | Ä˝udovĂt Klein | 0 | 29 of 76 | 38% | 35 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 25 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 3 | Ä˝udovĂt Klein | 0 | 7 of 30 | 23% | 11 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 21 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ä˝udovĂt Klein | 43 of 139 | 30% | 29 of 114 | 9 of 16 | 5 of 9 | 41 of 133 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 56 of 108 | 51% | 36 of 82 | 11 of 16 | 9 of 10 | 43 of 88 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 19 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ä˝udovĂt Klein | 7 of 33 | 21% | 5 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 4 | 7 of 31 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 20 of 34 | 58% | 17 of 28 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 14 | |
| 2 | Ä˝udovĂt Klein | 29 of 76 | 38% | 21 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 28 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 19 of 41 | 46% | 8 of 27 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 19 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ä˝udovĂt Klein | 7 of 30 | 23% | 3 of 20 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 17 of 33 | 51% | 11 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 |
Angelo picks Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his massive size at lightweight, incredible volume, decent power, and 95% takedown defense. He notes that Bahamondes uses his length well to keep distance and snatch submissions. He believes Klein is a technical striker but will struggle with Bahamondes's size and grappling, and may shoot sloppy takedowns that lead to a submission. Angelo thinks -200 is appropriate and expects Bahamondes to dominate.
Big Brady is very high on Bahamondes, noting his size (6'3" at lightweight), volume, and improved takedown defense as seen against Roosevelt Roberts. He thinks Klein has stagnated and shown poor cardio and durability. He expects Bahamondes to keep the fight standing and outpoint Klein over 15 minutes, possibly by decision, with a sneaky submission chance.
Cody is confident in Bahamondes, citing his volume, height advantage (6'3" vs 5'7"), and youth. He notes Klein's low output and struggles against taller opponents. He expects Bahamondes to outland Klein significantly and win a decision, possibly with a late finish. He also likes the over 83.5 significant strikes prop for Bahamondes.
Daniel Levi is very confident in Ignacio Bahamondes, calling him his first bet of the night. He praises Bahamondes' striking, length (6'3" at lightweight), and durability, citing praise from Belal Muhammad. Levi notes that Klein is explosive but breaks when he's the nail, while Bahamondes has no quit. He expects Bahamondes to double Klein up on strikes and potentially finish him. Levi parlayed Bahamondes with Bobby Green to win 3.5 units at effective even money.
James thinks Bahamondes is the better striker and more dangerous submission threat. He notes Klein can catch him but doesn't hit extremely hard. Bahamondes is improving and James expects him to break Klein late, similar to how Madge did.
Bahamondes can snipe from distance and rack up significant strikes, possibly finishing Klein. Klein may try grappling, but Bahamondes has good takedown defense and can work back to his feet. The Jai Herbert fight is a perfect example of what happens when Klein faces a distance striker, and Bahamondes is cleaner than Herbert. I like Bahamondes to win by decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Bahamondes' volume and size advantage. He is concerned about Klein's takedowns but believes Bahamondes will cruise to a decision victory. He also likes the over 83.5 significant strikes prop.
The host is high on Ignacio Bahamondes, calling him 'the truth' with phenomenal kickboxing and range. He notes Bahamondes has a 95% takedown defense and should keep the fight standing. He believes Bahamondes will outland Klein and possibly land a big kick. He acknowledges Klein has power but thinks Bahamondes' ceiling is much higher. He is comfortable with the line up to -260.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 99 of 200 | 49% | 99 of 200 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trey Ogden | 0 | 42 of 109 | 38% | 42 of 109 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 26 of 51 | 50% | 26 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trey Ogden | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 30 of 66 | 45% | 30 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trey Ogden | 0 | 16 of 45 | 35% | 16 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 43 of 83 | 51% | 43 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trey Ogden | 0 | 17 of 42 | 40% | 17 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 99 of 200 | 49% | 28 of 88 | 30 of 65 | 41 of 47 | 99 of 200 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trey Ogden | 42 of 109 | 38% | 24 of 81 | 10 of 15 | 8 of 13 | 42 of 109 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 26 of 51 | 50% | 7 of 19 | 4 of 15 | 15 of 17 | 26 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trey Ogden | 9 of 22 | 40% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 8 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 30 of 66 | 45% | 9 of 33 | 11 of 20 | 10 of 13 | 30 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trey Ogden | 16 of 45 | 35% | 8 of 33 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 43 of 83 | 51% | 12 of 36 | 15 of 30 | 16 of 17 | 43 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trey Ogden | 17 of 42 | 40% | 13 of 36 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bahamondes (-345), Ogden (+285)
Round 1
Due to bout cancelations, matchup switcheroos and a bunch of other oddities, this fight set in the cage now is taking place at a pre-planned 160 pounds. After over a year off, Bahamondes (13-4, 2-1 UFC) wants to shake off any rust and handle Ogden (16-5, 1-1 UFC). The style matchup is intriguing, with all but one of Bahamondesâ career stoppages by knockout, while Ogden has never once performed a stoppage due to strikes. Referee Andrew Glenn is on call for this catchweight contest, and it opens up with no touch of gloves. Bahamondes starts with a low leg kick, and Ogden hops forward to stomp his foeâs knee. Ogden pursues an inside leg kick, and Bahamondes counters with a pair of punches. The Chilean fighter paws at him with at front kick and a jab, looking to establish his superior reach advantage. Ogden attacks his lead leg, and Bahamondes responds in kind. Bahamondes chips at the lead calf, allowing himself to be opened up to catch a left to the chin. Bahamondes rips a body kick, and he changes stances to line up a low kick. The pace is slow and very tit-for-tat, but Bahamondes appears to be landing with heavier leg kicks than his opponent. One in particular makes Ogden turn his leg into it, and he swats away a long jab and counters with a left. The stance switching from âLa Jaulaâ frustrates his opponent and disrupts much of his offense, while setting up leg kicks from either leg. Ogden takes several more kicks to the inside and outside of his lead wheel, and he rolls with the brunt of a one-two. Ogden leans back but cannot block a right hand, and Bahamondes blasts him in the midsection with a kick. Ogden points to his elbow to say that he blocked it, and he gets stung with a left to follow. Ogden backs up into the fence and is nearly turned around from a leg kick, and Bahamondes chops at it indiscriminately. Bahamondes settles down to fire off another kick to the ribcage, and he darts back when Ogden punches him in the side. Ogdenâs offense is limited to single blows, and Bahamondes is potshotting him from afar. They clash legs when kicking at one another, and Bahamondes spins with a back kick to the breadbasket. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Round 2
The second frame opens as the two meet directly in the center of the cage, and Bahamondes leads off with several punches and whiffs with a wheel kick. Bahamondes steps through to light up the body with a kick, and Ogden slides to the side to fire off a trio of punches and an open-handed slap. They trade low kicks, and Bahamondes lines up a solid kick to the body. Bahamondes connects with a clean one-two, beating Ogden to the punch in most of their exchanges. Ogden goes up high with a kick, and âLa Jaulaâ blocks it with ease. Bahamondes outjabs his foe, and Ogden shoots in from a healthy distance and is stuffed. Bahamondes retreats and lines up a low kick and a long left hand, and Ogden loads up on a left hand to respond. Ogden attempts to check a leg kick, and Bahamondes digs a few punches to the body. Bahamondes reaches his man and gets out before getting countered, and he protects himself from a high kick. The jabs and straight punches to the body continue to come from Bahamondes, who leaps into a flying knee and bounces off his target. Ogden blocks a body kick as the crowd showers the two cautious strikers with boos. These seem to excite âSamurai Ghostâ momentarily, who chases Bahamondes down and connects with a combination. Ogden swipes out with a left hand, and Bahamondes chops his leg down on the inside again. The action once again wanes, and the crowd is not slow to voice its disapproval. Bahamondes scores another body kick that Ogden motions did not connect, but it did slide under his elbow first. The two fighters trade jabs, and take turns with exchanges. Bahamondes kicks, Ogden responds, and Bahamondes continues. Bahamondes lands a pair of leg kicks on the inside, fires one off to the head, and the tepid round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Round 3
The final frame opens with Bahamondes taking the middle of the Octagon and spamming kicks to all targets. Ogden paws out a left hand, and it is a single strike answered by several from Bahamondes. Bahamondes hammers the body with a kick, and this time Ogden is not motioning anything, as that appeared to sting. Bahamondes reaches with a straight left hand, and does so a second time before working the lead leg with a hard kick. Bahamondes chains into a pair of body kick, where he switches stance to dig his shin on the underside of Ogdenâs knee. The Chilean fighter constantly peppers Ogden with kicks, rarely aiming at the same spot twice in a row. A leg kick from his right leg is followed by one from his left to the head, and then his right foot pushes out with a front kick. Bahamondes continues his lumberjack routine of chopping down the tree that is Ogden, and he slaps Ogden in the face with his instep. Ogden is left guessing or flailing at the wind, with left hooks that are nearly a foot short of the mark or low kicks that have little on them. The audience starts lighting up their phones and waving around the lights, all while raining down a wall of boos. The pace does not change for the fighters, as Bahamondes is comfortable with his calm yet active approach. Ogden dings Bahamondes with a left, but it is one-and-done before Bahamondes scores three times from a distance. Bahamondes jabs the body and spins with a kick to the midsection, and he hops back when Ogden aims a right hand down towards the breadbasket. Bahamondes swings a check right hook when Ogden advances, but it does not slow âSamurai Ghostâ from throwing a solid right. Bahamondes misses the mark with a spinning wheel kick, but a second spin in the form of a back kick lands on the ribs and pushes Ogden into the wall. Bahamondes spins with a back fist, a wheel kick and then fires an axe kick, and Ogden stands in front of him until the horn blares to end this lackluster match.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes (30-27 Bahamondes)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes (30-27 Bahamondes)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes (30-27 Bahamondes)
The Official Result
Ignacio Bahamondes def. Trey Ogden via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo is very confident in Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his length, reach, surprising output, good power, footwork, and 95% takedown defense. He notes that Trey Ogden is stepping up on short notice and has had to cut weight twice in a few weeks, which is a disadvantage. He believes Ignacio will dominate with his striking and is one of his most confident picks on the card.
Big Brady is confident in Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his improved takedown defense and striking advantage. He notes that Trey Ogden has poor takedown accuracy (15%) and struggled against Jordan Levitt. He believes Bahamondes will outclass Ogden on the feet and potentially finish him, but predicts a decision win. He mentions the line movement as a sign of confidence.
Cody agrees with Paul on Bahamondes. He notes Bahamondes' potential and size advantage, and that Ogden's wins have come against lower-level competition. Cody points out Ogden's poor takedown defense and low striking output. He thinks Bahamondes will use his reach and volume to dominate. Cody says he probably won't bet it due to the price but agrees it's a solid pick.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Bahamondes. He notes that Ogden is a fighter who makes it hard for opponents to hit him, but Bahamondes will keep throwing.
Jacob also loves Ignacio, calling it one of his favorite plays on the card. He emphasizes Ignacio's jab and length, and notes that Trey Ogden marches forward with his head on the center line, making him vulnerable. He warns against Ignacio pulling guillotines, as that could put him on his back, but believes if he sticks to jabbing, he will dominate.
Bahamondes is all violence with high volume, using his height and reach to keep opponents at distance. He has 95% takedown defense and trains with Belal Muhammad to improve his grappling. Ogden is a BJJ black belt but may struggle with Bahamondes' constant pressure and output. I expect Bahamondes to land a knockout as Ogden gets desperate with takedowns.
Paul is high on Bahamondes, calling him potential top ticket material. He highlights Bahamondes' massive size for lightweight (6'3", 75" reach), excellent volume, and takedown defense. Paul notes Bahamondes' cardio and durability, and that he keeps improving. He criticizes Ogden's low output and poor wrestling, and believes Bahamondes will outwork him easily. Paul expects a dominant performance.
The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by second-round submission via guillotine or d'arce choke. He highlights Bahamondes' good reactions to takedown attempts and his striking at range with front kicks and straight punches. He predicts Ogden will shoot a sloppy takedown in the second round after being worn down by leg kicks and body shots, allowing Bahamondes to latch on a guillotine against the cage.
Zane picks Bahamondes because Ogden is a negative fighter who withdraws, and Bahamondes is pathologically aggressive. He notes that trying to not have a fight with Bahamondes is dangerous.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 48 of 129 | 37% | 49 of 130 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 126 of 194 | 64% | 133 of 204 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 42 of 66 | 63% | 48 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:11 | |
| 2 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 31 of 83 | 37% | 31 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 60 of 97 | 61% | 61 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 8 of 29 | 27% | 9 of 30 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 24 of 31 | 77% | 24 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 48 of 129 | 37% | 34 of 114 | 9 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 46 of 126 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Rong Zhu | 126 of 194 | 64% | 86 of 151 | 25 of 28 | 15 of 15 | 117 of 178 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 9 of 17 | 52% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Rong Zhu | 42 of 66 | 63% | 24 of 46 | 11 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 36 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 | |
| 2 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 31 of 83 | 37% | 20 of 71 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 30 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 60 of 97 | 61% | 43 of 80 | 11 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 59 of 96 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 8 of 29 | 27% | 8 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 24 of 31 | 77% | 19 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by decision. He praises Bahamondes' takedown defense shown against Roosevelt Roberts, where he stuffed 12 takedowns. He notes Bahamondes throws high volume (over 7.5 significant strikes per minute) and has a significant reach advantage. He criticizes Rong Zhu's striking, pointing out that he was outlanded 94-40 by Kazula Vargas at distance. Brady believes Bahamondes will keep the fight on the feet and outwork Zhu.
Cody picks Bahamondes by decision, citing his size, volume, and takedown defense. He notes Bahamondes' improvement and ability to stuff takedowns, while Zhu is still raw. Cody likes the decision prop at +150 and plans to bet it later in the week.
Daniel Levi leans Ignacio Bahamondes but is cautious. He notes Bahamondes has a tendency to fight to the level of his competition and sometimes underperforms. Levi praises Bahamondes' striking and chin, but worries about Rong Zhu's talent and youth. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and says if Bahamondes performs to his potential, he wins.
The host is confident in Bahamondes, citing his volume striking, takedown defense, and ability to overwhelm opponents. He notes that Bahamondes stuffed takedowns from Roosevelt Roberts and expects similar success against Rong Zhu. He thinks Rong Zhu's only chance is a knockout, but Bahamondes should control the fight and win by decision.
Paul agrees with Bahamondes by decision, noting his pressure, volume, and takedown defense. He acknowledges Zhu's power but believes Bahamondes' size and output will win rounds. Paul also likes the decision prop at +150.
The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by 29-28 decision. He believes Bahamondes has more potential and a higher ceiling than Rong Zhu, citing Bahamondes' impressive performance against Roosevelt Roberts and his toughness in the John McDermott fight. He criticizes Zhu's loss to Rodrigo Vargas and thinks Bahamondes will pressure Zhu, lose the first round, but come back in the second and third with better pacing to take Zhu into deep waters and win the last two rounds.
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his length, striking, and multiple ways to win. He acknowledges that Fiziev is the better striker but thinks Bahamondes is on a run and has more finishing options. He notes that Fiziev may have slowed down after injuries and tough fights. He recommends exposure to both in multiple lineups.
Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev despite him being on a three-fight skid, noting that Fiziev's losses came against top competition (Gamrot, Gaethje twice) and one was on short notice. He believes Bahamondes is taking a step up in competition and that Fiziev's speed, power, and movement will cause problems early. Brady acknowledges Fiziev's cardio issues but thinks the fight goes to decision and that hometown judges will favor Fiziev in a close fight. He predicts a greasy, possibly controversial decision win for Fiziev.
Connor picks Fiziev, agreeing with Zane that Bahamondes' reversion to pocket fighting against Turner is a bad sign against Fiziev. He notes that Bahamondes has lost to short, explosive strikers before and that Fiziev is a much more polished striker than Bahamondes' recent opponents. He believes Fiziev's technical edge and the fact that Bahamondes hasn't proven his new style against a serious range striker make Fiziev the clear pick.
The host is surprised Bahamondes is the slight favorite. He thinks Fiziev may have handpicked his opponent to perform in front of his hometown crowd. He expects Fiziev's speed advantage and wrestling to thwart Bahamondes' distance striking, leading to a big shot or control time for a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his range and improved distance management. He believes Fiziev's size disadvantage and recent war with Justin Gaethje will be factors. He expects Bahamondes to pick Fiziev apart as the fight goes on, predicting a third-round finish.
Zane picks Fiziev, noting that Fiziev looked great in his return against Gaethje despite losing, and that Bahamondes has struggled against shorter, better range strikers like Ludovic Klein and John McDessie. He points out that Bahamondes' instinct to sit in the pocket and trade hooks plays into Fiziev's strengths, and that Bahamondes' new rangy style hasn't been tested against a serious striker. He believes Fiziev's technical advantage will be decisive even if he tires.
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