UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025 · Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 9"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 26
Height 5' 4"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Charles Johnson
4.77 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
4.02 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.51 TD Avg
16.0% TD Acc.
69.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Lone'er Kavanagh
4.13 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.49 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.12 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
94.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Charles Johnson
Moneyline
Caesars +215
KO/TKO
Unibet +1000
Submission
FanDuel +3500
Decision
FanDuel +310
Lone'er Kavanagh
Moneyline
FanDuel -250
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
Unibet +2500
Decision
BetMGM -120
Charles Johnson - Fight History
SCHED vs Asu Almabayev
WIN vs Bruno Silva
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 0 85 of 162 52% 110 of 189 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:06
Bruno Silva 0 73 of 136 53% 101 of 171 0 of 8 0% 0 0 3:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 18 of 34 52% 18 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Bruno Silva 0 12 of 19 63% 15 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:53
2 Charles Johnson 0 33 of 60 55% 38 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Bruno Silva 0 27 of 53 50% 37 of 66 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:21
3 Charles Johnson 0 34 of 68 50% 54 of 88 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:06
Bruno Silva 0 34 of 64 53% 49 of 83 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 85 of 162 52% 43 of 101 30 of 46 12 of 15 61 of 132 24 of 30 0 of 0
Bruno Silva 73 of 136 53% 52 of 106 14 of 21 7 of 9 71 of 131 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 18 of 34 52% 7 of 18 7 of 10 4 of 6 11 of 26 7 of 8 0 of 0
Bruno Silva 12 of 19 63% 6 of 11 2 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 33 of 60 55% 17 of 37 10 of 16 6 of 7 29 of 56 4 of 4 0 of 0
Bruno Silva 27 of 53 50% 18 of 39 6 of 9 3 of 5 27 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Charles Johnson 34 of 68 50% 19 of 46 13 of 20 2 of 2 21 of 50 13 of 18 0 of 0
Bruno Silva 34 of 64 53% 28 of 56 6 of 8 0 of 0 32 of 60 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Johnson vs. Bruno Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-200); Silva (+170)

Round 1
Keith Peterson is the referee. Silva with an inside low kick early. Johnson shoots behind a punch. Silva defends and they’re in the clinch. Johnson lands a hook on the break. Johnson fakes a shot behind a left. Johnson with a front kick. The American shoots from long distance and Silva defends easily. Silva shoves his foe into the fence. Silva backs off. A right lands for Johnson, who follows with a leg kick. A sharp right connects for the Brazilian. Silva kicks the body. Johnson appears to be bothered by the pressure. Silva clinches again and locks his hands. Johnson lands an elbow in close quaters and Silva backs off. Silva lands in an exchange. They trade low kicks. Silva with a right as Johnson moves forward. Johnson partially lands a high kick. Johnson mixes in a low kick and a front kick. Silva answers by kicking the body. Silva keeps the pressure on late in the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johnson

Round 2
Johnson kicks the body and they trade in the pocket. Silva blocks a head kick. Silva is pressuring and Johnson is forced to defend a takedown. Johnson lands a knee and shoves his foe away. A jab lands for Johnson before Silva shoots. Johnson denies the takedown and the flyweights clinch against the fence. Silva backs off and Johnson lands a combination. A kick by Silva lands below the belt and time is called. Johnson is ready to go right away. They trade low kicks. Silva again looks for the takedown, shoving Johnson into the fence. Johnson lands a knee before they separate. Johson lands a kick and Silva counters. A straight left gets through for Johnson. Silva clinches behind an uppercut and they break quickly. Johnson fires a high kcik, but it doesn’t land clean. Another uppercut for Silva, who clinches with his opponent again. Johnson lands a short elbow in close. Silva lands a combination against the fence. A body kick lands for Johnson. The flyweights clash heads in the clinch and Johnson seemed to get the worst of it. Time is called. Silva fires a front kick and it lands low. It’s the second low blow of the round, and Johnson is in more pain than he was from the first foul. No point is taken, however. Johnson grabs a leg but lets it go. Silva with a body kick before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johnson

Round 3
Johnson catches a kick and lets the leg go. Johnson lands a left and they clinch. Inside leg kick for Johnson, and they clinch in the center of the cage. Silva shoves Johnson into the fence. Silva drops low in pursuit of the takedown, but Johnson defends well. Jonson jabs and they trae in close quarters. Both men land before the flyweights clinch. They battle for position before separating. This time Johnson initiates the clinch. Silva lands a combination at range and he’s pressuring Johnson, who is in defense mode. Silva ties up with his opponent against the cage. Johnson denies a takedown attempt. Johnson with a high kick on the break. Silva tries a spinning back elbow. Johnson with kicks and a right hand in hopes of creating space. Silva closes the distance again, shoving Johnson into the fence. He briefly gets the American down, but he’s up in short order. Silva moves in and lands an uppercut before clinching. They battle it out in the clinch, and Johnson lands a nice knee. Silva moves forward and goes back to the uppercut. Jonson responds with a slashing elbow. Silva keeps moving forward. but Johnson is landing plenty of offense. Both men are slugging it out in the waning moments of the fight. Johnson is finding the mark quite often. Another elbow lands for Johnson. They trade right up until the final horn, with Silva getting in a few more shots.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (30-27 Johnson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (30-27 Johnson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (30-27 Johnson)

The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Bruno Silva via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 30-27) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Angelo picks Charles Johnson but admits nervousness due to Bruno Silva's one-punch knockout power. He notes Johnson's excellent footwork, hand speed, and cardio, and believes if Johnson gets going early, he can avoid the big shot and win a decision. He acknowledges Johnson has been knocked out before but thinks his high IQ will prevail.

"Charles Johnson is going to be the pick. I'm a little nervous."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson to win by third-round knockout, but expresses wariness due to Johnson's recent knockout loss and chin concerns. He likes the stylistic matchup, noting Silva's front-loaded power and tendency to fade, but worries Johnson might get knocked out early. He calls Johnson inconsistent.

"give me Charles Johnson to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Cody picks Bruno Silva as a dog, citing his wrestling, power, and durability. He notes Johnson's takedown defense issues and recent knockout loss. He thinks Silva can win by decision or submission.

"Bruno Silva's could be primed to pull off an upset here for sure."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

Connor also picks Charles Johnson, emphasizing that Bruno Silva lacks the ability to adjust strategically, while Johnson can figure out his opponent as the fight progresses. He notes that Silva's wins come from opponents making the same mistakes, which Johnson does not do. Connor sees Johnson's adaptability as the key factor.

Silva opened at +145, currently +160; Johnson opened at -170, currently -185
"I think the, the, I'm going to go with Johnson as well. It's, it's really unclear to me, honestly. Like I, I, I think either guy could go out, but it's essentially like ever present danger from Bruno Silva versus …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

James picks Charles Johnson to win by decision, but expresses concern about Johnson's quick return after a knockout loss. He notes Johnson's superior cardio, volume, and tools, but worries about his durability and potential recklessness. He believes Johnson is the better fighter overall but is uncertain how he will approach the fight.

"I definitely going to pick Charles Johnson here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

The host picks Johnson to win by decision, expecting him to outclass Silva on the feet. He highlights Johnson's reach advantage, defensive grappling, and ability to get back to his feet quickly. He believes Johnson's striking will be too much for Silva, and that Silva's power and grappling won't be enough to overcome Johnson's technical edge.

"I think Johnson should be able to stay away from that power. I think he picks Bruno Silva apart."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Paul picks Bruno Silva, noting he bets him every fight. He likes his wrestling and power, and thinks he can outgrapple Johnson. He expects a close fight but Silva has value at plus money.

"I pretty much bet Bruno Silva every single fight. I don't see any reason to stop now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Charles Johnson

The Guru picks Charles Johnson, believing he will walk down Bruno Silva as the fight progresses. He notes Johnson's size advantage (5'9" vs 5'4") and reach, and that Silva fights in bursts and lacks consistent finishing ability. He predicts a TKO in the second round.

Prediction: second round TKO
"I'm going to go with Charles Johnson by TKO in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

Zane picks Charles Johnson, citing Johnson's ability to adjust and evolve during fights, unlike Bruno Silva who tends to make the same mistakes repeatedly. He notes that Silva's wins come against fighters who repeat errors, while Johnson adapts and finds solutions. Zane acknowledges Silva's danger but believes Johnson's flexibility gives him the edge.

Silva opened at +145, currently +160; Johnson opened at -170, currently -185
"I'm still going to pick Johnson. I don't think that I'm, I think Perez is always capable of pulling out performances like that in Paris is an ancient either."
LOSS vs Alex Perez
KO R1 3:16 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Perez 2 39 of 75 52% 55 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Charles Johnson 0 8 of 25 32% 8 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Perez 2 39 of 75 52% 55 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Charles Johnson 0 8 of 25 32% 8 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Perez 39 of 75 52% 27 of 60 9 of 10 3 of 5 33 of 67 4 of 6 2 of 2
Charles Johnson 8 of 25 32% 4 of 14 3 of 9 1 of 2 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Perez 39 of 75 52% 27 of 60 9 of 10 3 of 5 33 of 67 4 of 6 2 of 2
Charles Johnson 8 of 25 32% 4 of 14 3 of 9 1 of 2 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Johnson vs. Alex Perez (128.5: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-205), Perez (+170)

Round 1
All UFC fights stateside will plug on under the Paramount+ streaming service, so the distinction between early prelims and the “ESPN” or “Fox Sports” prelims is less significant than before. Former UFC Fight Pass maven Ant Evans suggested the breakdown of cards shift to the main card—no change there—the undercard, where the four-fight prelim slot prior to the main card is placed; and any bout before those nine should be considered a prelim. Nevertheless, the action continues in a catchweight affair as the skidding Perez (25-10, 7-6 UFC) failed to make the flyweight limit by two and a half pounds. A quarter of his purse goes to “InnerG” Johnson (18-7, 7-5 UFC), whose unique hairstyle is starting to have a mind of its own. The athletes will be officiated by referee Jason Herzog, and Perez offers his foe an apologetic glove touch that is accepted.
Perez darts straight to the center of the cage, where he tracks Johnson down and parries a body kick to race towards him. Johnson dings him with a right hand and slides out of the way to reset. Perez goes wide on a right hand, and he nearly gets his chin checked with a head kick. Johnson checks a few leg kicks and stays right before Perez, circling on the outside while Perez walks straight towards him. A Perez barrage comes up short, although a second effort does clip Johnson on the chin. Johnson fires back with a high kick, and Perez unloads with a vicious left hand that stuns Johnson and sets him down. Johnson pulls the cage to stand back up, still badly rocked, and he stands in front of Perez as if he wants to bang it out. Perez has no fear, and he drives a few knees into his jaw that hurt him once more. Johnson takes a right hand on the chin that shakes him up and forces him to bounce off the fencing to keep his feet about him, and Perez is all over him.
Perez marches down “InnerG” with impunity, and Johnson is being held up by the cage when Perez blasts him. One more knockdown is registered by Perez, and Johnson drops to his knees to desperately shoot. Perez takes anything Johnson offers and walks through it to tear in to the damaged fighter who has fought back to his feet again.
When Johnson lifts up an anticipatory knee, Perez loads up on a left hand and sends Johnson careening to the canvas for the umpteenth time, and Herzog has seen more than enough and waves things off.
Johnson still gets up on autopilot and runs towards Perez as Perez has walked away to celebrate his handiwork, and he even gets hold of Perez’ leg when Perez is trying to climb the cage wall. Herzog manages to cool Johnson down, who was damaged and in a bad way for much more than a minute. This is a crucial victory for Perez, who had only gotten his hand raised once in his last six outings. It is a bit of a tough break for Perez, because while he won and likely staved off a pink slip, his missing weight makes him eligible for a finish bonus. It takes champion Joshua Van mere moments to post on social media taunting the defeated Johnson, who laughs off any chance at a rematch.

The Official Result
Alex Perez def. Charles Johnson R1 3:16 via TKO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alex Perez

Angelo picks Alex Perez despite his four-fight losing streak, arguing the losses are to elite fighters and he was winning against Asu Almabaev before a mistake. He praises Perez's striking, low kicks, and wrestling. He notes Charles Johnson is a friend of the show but believes Perez can pull off the upset. He is very low confidence, rating it 51 out of 100.

This might be a spectacular plus three and a half. If he stays as big of an underdog as he is now, a spectacular plus three and a half bet. ... Charles Johnson's notably a slow starter. So if he takes his time and he doesn't get after it and Alex kind of stays in his face, pushes the pace a little bit, he'll definitely win a round. I don't definitely don't see him getting finished. So plus three and a half bet is likely the way I'm going to go here.
"I think Alex Perez can pull this off. He is freaking good. He's good. ... On a scale of one to 100, I am picking Alex Perez at 51."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Big Brady notes Perez finds ways to lose, often getting finished when he's winning. He expects Perez to win round one but fade as Johnson works into the fight. He predicts Johnson will finish Perez, likely by submission, as Perez has been submitted many times.

Johnson by submission
"I'm gonna take Charles Johnson here. I think he actually finishes Alex Perez. When Perez is losing fights, he's getting finished more often than not."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Cody picks Charles Johnson, citing Perez's poor cardio and tendency to make mistakes. He notes Johnson's improved takedown defense and striking volume, and believes Johnson will win the later rounds. Cody sees Johnson as a live underdog and expects him to win by decision or late stoppage.

"Johnson's no spring chicken. Like he's also 34 years old at flyaway. It's a little bit older. But the mileage, the injuries, it's it's energy Johnson for me. So I I got Charlie to get it done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

Connor questions whether Alex Perez is actually a good flyweight, noting his record of 1 win in 6 fights over 5 years. He sees Perez as a bully on the front foot who lacks durability and defensive striking. Johnson, on the other hand, is clicking better, finding his timing earlier, and has a persistent, awkward style that can frustrate opponents. Connor believes Johnson can survive Perez's hot start and take over, possibly getting a finish.

"I think i'm gonna pick him here to be alex perez because what we are seeing is that charles johnson is clicking better and better."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson to finish Alex Perez. He notes that Perez has lost five of his last six and has questionable heart and fight IQ. Vreeland believes Johnson's slow-starting style matches up well against Perez, who tends to fade. He predicts Johnson will find the chin or neck of Perez for a finish.

"I think Charles Johnson's going to come out here and finish Alex Perez."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

James picks Johnson, citing his superior striking, cardio, and durability. He notes Perez often gets finished and that Johnson is more locked into MMA. He predicts a finish, possibly by submission or knockout.

"I think he's a much better striker than Alex Perez. I really do."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alex Perez

The host picks Perez as an underdog, citing his forward pressure, leg kicks, and gas tank. He believes Perez can dictate the pace and outwork Johnson, who can be gunshy. He notes Perez's recent losses are to high-level competition and sees value at +175. He predicts Perez by decision or knockout.

Perez by decision or knockout
"I love him as an underdog at plus 175. This is a no-brainer shot to take on Perez."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Johnson's improvements and Perez's bad luck. He notes Johnson's knockout power and volume, and believes Perez's cardio will fail him. Paul likes Johnson on the money line and also considers the knockout prop.

Charles Johnson by knockout
"Charles Johnson by like by knockout isn't too bad of a look. I don't think he's like plus 500 or up I would take probably."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson, citing his win over Joshua Van and his range advantage. He notes that Johnson's uppercut game will be effective against Perez's head-tucking hooks. He predicts a close decision, possibly with Perez having a good third round.

decision
"I'm going to go with Charles Johnson getting this one done by close decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Perez's wrestling control time is often minimal and that he walks into danger. Johnson has a great flow and timing, and his ability to pressure and exhaust opponents is key. Zane also mentions that Johnson knocked out the flyweight champion and has a Bobby Green-like quality. He thinks Johnson can survive Perez's early pressure and win.

"I think johnson's going to be really annoying for him to fight. Johnson's like visibly not scared he's yeah, he likes for you to come forward and chase him."
KO R2 4:35 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 1 44 of 81 54% 52 of 89 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:32
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 59 of 120 49% 60 of 121 1 of 2 50% 1 1 0:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 14 of 25 56% 14 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 36 of 65 55% 37 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Charles Johnson 1 30 of 56 53% 38 of 64 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:22
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 23 of 55 41% 23 of 55 1 of 2 50% 1 1 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 44 of 81 54% 18 of 49 6 of 10 20 of 22 37 of 71 4 of 6 3 of 4
Lone'er Kavanagh 59 of 120 49% 32 of 83 21 of 26 6 of 11 53 of 111 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 14 of 25 56% 3 of 11 2 of 4 9 of 10 14 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 36 of 65 55% 17 of 37 14 of 18 5 of 10 34 of 63 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 30 of 56 53% 15 of 38 4 of 6 11 of 12 23 of 47 4 of 5 3 of 4
Lone'er Kavanagh 23 of 55 41% 15 of 46 7 of 8 1 of 1 19 of 48 4 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh but is hesitant, noting that Charles Johnson is a friend of the show and a good fighter. He praises Kavanagh's speed, power, and ability to transition to wrestling instantly. He thinks the odds are too wide and that Johnson is not a 2-to-1 underdog. He says he'll be rooting for Johnson but thinks Kavanagh probably gets it done due to speed and volume.

Odds are -200 for Kavanagh; Angelo thinks Johnson is not a 2-to-1 underdog.
"Loner Kavanaaugh is probably the pick just given all the other circumstances."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Big Brady picks Lone'er Kavanagh to win a close decision, noting that Kavanagh is a real prospect with power and takedown ability. He criticizes Charles Johnson for consistently losing first rounds and being takedown-prone. He believes Kavanagh will win rounds one and two, while Johnson may take round three, leading to a decision for Kavanagh.

Kavanagh by decision
"I'm going Kavanaaugh to win a close decision in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The host notes that Kavanagh is usually at super chalky odds but here at -180, it's a great entry point. He thinks Johnson may not have the power to get Kavanagh's respect, and while Johnson may have an advantage in output and volume, Kavanagh should mix martial arts well with power strikes, speed, and takedowns to win on the scorecards.

odds comment: -180 is a great entry point
"We're so used to seeing Kavanaaugh at super chalky odds, but here at minus 180. I think this is a great entry point against a guy in Charles Johnson who may not have the power to get the respect from …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson to win by decision as an underdog (+170). He believes Johnson's experience and ability to survive and push the pace will be key. He notes that Kavanagh struggled in close fights against Jose Ochoa and Felipe dos Santos, and that Johnson is hard to outgrapple effectively. He expects Johnson to have a strong third round and win a close decision, though he acknowledges Kavanagh could land a knockout.

Charles Johnson by decision; underdog +170
"Charles Johnson's going to get the upset win in my opinion. He's an underdog. He's plus 170."
LOSS vs Ramazan Temirov
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 0 66 of 156 42% 87 of 183 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:18
Ramazan Temirov 0 55 of 139 39% 59 of 146 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 15 of 41 36% 15 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ramazan Temirov 0 21 of 44 47% 21 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Charles Johnson 0 14 of 37 37% 21 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:50
Ramazan Temirov 0 19 of 46 41% 20 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
3 Charles Johnson 0 37 of 78 47% 51 of 96 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Ramazan Temirov 0 15 of 49 30% 18 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 66 of 156 42% 28 of 104 23 of 32 15 of 20 46 of 129 20 of 27 0 of 0
Ramazan Temirov 55 of 139 39% 42 of 117 13 of 22 0 of 0 46 of 118 9 of 19 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 15 of 41 36% 5 of 26 3 of 6 7 of 9 13 of 38 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ramazan Temirov 21 of 44 47% 14 of 33 7 of 11 0 of 0 19 of 39 2 of 4 0 of 1
2 Charles Johnson 14 of 37 37% 7 of 22 5 of 10 2 of 5 10 of 32 4 of 5 0 of 0
Ramazan Temirov 19 of 46 41% 14 of 41 5 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 39 3 of 6 0 of 1
3 Charles Johnson 37 of 78 47% 16 of 56 15 of 16 6 of 6 23 of 59 14 of 19 0 of 0
Ramazan Temirov 15 of 49 30% 14 of 43 1 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 40 4 of 9 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

Angelo slightly leans towards Ramazan Temirov, citing his power and the judges' tendency to favor damage over clean technique. He acknowledges that Charles Johnson is more technical and could win a decision if he fights perfectly, but believes Temirov's power and aggression might sway the judges. He does not bet on this fight due to its razor-thin nature.

No bet; fight too close
"I am going to slightly ever so slightly lean OV here because I think that power perception might matter to the judges"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson, citing his superior experience, cardio, and output. He notes that Ramazan Temirov relies on power shots but flyweight knockouts are rare, and Johnson has never been finished. He expects Johnson to win by decision, and even made a bet that if Johnson wins, he'll buy a 'Scallet Gang' t-shirt.

Johnson by decision; bet on Johnson moneyline; if Johnson wins, Big Brady will buy a Scallet Gang t-shirt; if Johnson wins in round 3, Big Brady will shave his head into a scallet
"I'm going Charles Johnson here I'm going to be picking him to win this fight by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ramazan Temirov

The host believes Temirov is a future title contender and will showcase his potential this weekend. He highlights Temirov's footwork, angle cutting, and explosive approach in the pocket, expecting his power shots to be more impactful. He predicts a knockout within the first two rounds.

knockout in first two rounds
"I believe tamarov is a future title uh Contender and I believe believe we'll see that potential this uh weekend as he goes out there and utilizes his footwork uh angle cutting and explosive uh approach especially when he gets …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

The Guru picks Charles Johnson over Ramazan Temirov. He acknowledges Temirov's danger and finishing ability but doubts he can land a KO shot on Johnson, who has a great chin, good cardio, and range. He notes Johnson's win over Joshua Van and close fight with Sumudaarji. He predicts a decision win for Johnson, possibly a late TKO if Temirov slows down.

PrizePicks: Ramazan Temirov under 56.5 significant strikes (using code Guru)
"I'm leaning towards Charles Johnson for this pick... I'm going to go of Charles Johnson getting this one done by decision 2928 maybe even a late rounds TKO."
WIN vs Sumudaerji
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 1 65 of 150 43% 84 of 177 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:58
Sumudaerji 0 75 of 144 52% 78 of 149 0 of 3 0% 2 1 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 19 of 50 38% 33 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:16
Sumudaerji 0 24 of 43 55% 24 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Charles Johnson 1 30 of 60 50% 34 of 72 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:03
Sumudaerji 0 23 of 44 52% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:30
3 Charles Johnson 0 16 of 40 40% 17 of 41 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Sumudaerji 0 28 of 57 49% 29 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 65 of 150 43% 42 of 113 15 of 22 8 of 15 49 of 123 5 of 10 11 of 17
Sumudaerji 75 of 144 52% 41 of 96 7 of 15 27 of 33 68 of 135 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 19 of 50 38% 12 of 42 5 of 5 2 of 3 16 of 44 3 of 6 0 of 0
Sumudaerji 24 of 43 55% 12 of 26 2 of 3 10 of 14 20 of 39 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 30 of 60 50% 20 of 41 5 of 11 5 of 8 19 of 43 0 of 0 11 of 17
Sumudaerji 23 of 44 52% 15 of 32 2 of 5 6 of 7 22 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Charles Johnson 16 of 40 40% 10 of 30 5 of 6 1 of 4 14 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 0
Sumudaerji 28 of 57 49% 14 of 38 3 of 7 11 of 12 26 of 54 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Johnson vs. Su Mudaerji
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-225), Mudaerji (+185)

Round 1
Once with his back firmly against the wall, Johnson (16-6, 5-4 UFC) has given himself plenty of breathing room with a three-fight win streak. While he has plenty of momentum on his side, the matchmaking results him in facing Mudaerji (16-6, 3-3 UFC), who has lost his last two. Whether fortune continues to smile on “InnerG” or the Chinese fighter gets back in the win column, referee Mark Smith will be there for it every step of the way. Fists are bumped, and Johnson walks through a leg kick to immediately swarm Mudaerji with a flurry of fists. Johnson pressures Mudaerji up to and against the wall, kneeing him when they tie up. Johnson lifts knees to the gut while “The Tibetan Eagle” is pinned against it, and Mudaerji tries to get away and ultimately wrenches his way out and raps a right hand on the side of Johnson’s dome. Johnson shakes it off and plods forward, absorbing a few punches and a flush calf kick so he can charge in with his own offense. Johnson misses his strikes, dodges a low kick and keeps marching forward. Mudaerji sticks his man with a calf kick and jabs him to mix things up, and Johnson preemptively picks his leg up after these kicks start to add up. Mudaerji goes on the inside with two kicks, and Johnson sits down on a right hook to drive Mudaerji back. Mudaerji steps in with an elbow, and he flicks out a few jabs and splits the guard with a left. Mudaerji batters the front leg with a kick, and Johnson eats a jab and drops his hands to reset. Johnson checks a kick when crashing the pocket, and he loads up on power punches to the body. Johnson ties him up, and he knees his man in the chest and thighs while Mudaerji is warned for grabbing inside the glove. Mudaerji lashes out with an elbow to break, and he keeps his volume high by picking jabs and low kicks from his preferred range. Johnson crowds his man and unleashes a big right hand, only to get pulled into a Thai clinch and a sharp knee on the chin. Johnson frantically chases after his opponent, loading on up big strikes and forcing Mudaerji to ricochet off the fencing. Mudaerji dodges and weaves the worst of the attacks coming his way, and Johnson backs him against the wall and loads up on him. Johnson lets him have it until the bell sounds mid-exchange.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji

Round 2
The fighters touch ‘em up to get going in the second stanza, and Johnson dashes out of his corner to engage. Mudaerji is prepared to defend the initial blitz, succeeding in staving off the most threatening of the strikes. Mudaerji keeps shifting and moving actively, occasionally getting backed to the wall but never truly cornered. Mudaerji catches Johnson coming in with a right hand, and he scores two low kicks before Johnson can get to him. Johnson goes high with a kick that bounces off the guard, and he stomps the knee with his foot twice. Mudaerji shifts to the left to tag Johnson with a straight strike, and he flicks out a front-leg side kick and a number of punches to follow. Mudaerji wings big right hands that land behind the head, and he stumbles Johnson coming forward thanks to a low kick. Johnson finds his range with a left hook, but it is one-and-done as Mudaerji keeps moving and did not take the brunt of it. Mudaerji lines up a left hook around the guard, and Johnson barely blocks it in time. Mudaerji intercepts Johnson coming in once more, with Johnson leaving his hands low after throwing big. Johnson runs forward, hands by his side, and he jacks Mudaerji in the jaw with a vicious right hand. Mudaerji tries to escape, but Johnson is a dog with a bone chasing after him. Johnson backs Mudaerji to the fence and uppercuts him so hard, Mudaerji’s head snaps back like a Pez dispenser. Johnson lays into his opponent with a long barrage of punches, hurting Mudaerji badly and putting him down. Johnson tries to finish the job, swinging his way into the guard, where Mudaerji manages to survive and circle around to threaten with a triangle that transitions into an armbar. Johnson fights through it, gets put on his back, fights back up and somehow puts Mudaerji on the mat. Mudaerji sweeps him as soon as his seat hits the floor, and a mad exchange of grappling magic ensues until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Johnson

Round 3
The third round kicks off with Mudaerji tough as nails ready and willing to trade. Mudaerji sticks out two front kicks, spins with a wheel kick and smashes it on the side of Johnson’s dome. The forward pressure of Mudaerji allows him to trip Johnson up, and he slams the American to the mat. Johnson jumps back up and meanders forward, checking kicks but otherwise breathing hard and not striking. Mudaerji splits the guard with a left hand, potshotting Johnson coming forward while Johnson’s offense is practically nonexistent. Johnson grits his teeth after taking a few jabs to plow forward with telegraphed hooks, and the Chinese fighter sees them coming from a mile away. Johnson slings a right to open up a straight left, and the latter catches Mudaerji on the chin. Mudaerji chops his front leg back a few times, and he turns his hips into a body kick and then resets to land one more to the inner calf of “InnerG.” Johnson stalks Mudaerji down, walking through strikes but taking more than he is landing back. Johnson’s pressure results in a brief clinch, and Mudaerji fights his way out of it and just misses with a head kick. Mudaerji times a level change when Johnson wings a right hand, and Johnson reverses him with a throw to put “The Tibetan Eagle” on his back. Mudaerji scrambles wildly to get to his feet, and he breaks away from a clinch with an overhand right. Mudaerji puts three punches on the chin as Johnson shoots for a takedown, and he sets up a brabo choke to hurl Johnson to his knees. Johnson fights the hands to break up the submission, and he drops to one knee so he does not absorb a knee from the Chinese fighter. Johnson and Mudaerji swing it out right to the final bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (29-28 Mudaerji)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (29-28 Mudaerji)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (29-28 Mudaerji)

The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Su Mudaerji via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Angelo is very confident in Charles Johnson, citing his high output, technical striking, and ability to maintain pace for 15 minutes. He notes Sumudaerji's takedown defense is untested (only one takedown attempt in UFC) and that Johnson has survived tough moments before. He expects Johnson to pressure forward, be the cleaner striker, and take over as the fight goes on. He also mentions Johnson's activity and recent success.

"Charles is the pick I am very confident in that pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson by second-round submission. He highlights Sumudaerji's poor takedown defense and six submission losses. Johnson has good wrestling and submission attempts, though no UFC submission wins. He warns that if Johnson strikes, it's a different fight, but expects him to mix in takedowns and submit Sumudaerji.

second round submission
"I'm going to Charles Johnson give me Charles Johnson to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Johnson as a craftsman who should handle Sumudaerji's straightforward style. He notes that Sumudaerji lacks footwork to be a true sniper and that Johnson is durable and calculating. He expects Johnson to get on his front foot and take over in round two.

"I'd expect to see Johnson start to get on his front foot and really take over in round two"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Both are strikers, but Johnson has a better gas tank, better discipline striking, and good enough footwork and defensive striking to stay away from Sumudaerji's power. Johnson will chip away and win by decision or get a late finish.

"Johnson the better gas tank better discipline striking and good enough footwork and defensive striking to stay away from the big Power of sumod darji allowing Johnson to chip away at sumod dargi either win this fight by decision or …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

The Guru picks Charles Johnson despite not liking him personally, citing Johnson's recent momentum and wins over Joshua Van and Jake Hadley. He criticizes Sumudaerji's lack of power and relevant wins, noting he was dominated by Tim Elliott and struggled against Matt Schnell. He believes Johnson can take the fight to the ground if needed and predicts a later-rounds finish.

later rounds finish
"I'm going to go with Charles Johnson getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Zane picks Johnson, expecting him to calculate and counter Sumudaerji's linear, lunging strikes. He notes that Sumudaerji is a one-track fighter who backs straight out after throwing, and Johnson's durability and craftiness should allow him to take over in round two. He acknowledges that Johnson might be lackadaisical against a less dangerous opponent.

Sumudaerji opened +176, now +187; Johnson opened -201, now -216; odds feel right
"I think Charles Johnson can find the counters to those strikes"
WIN vs Joshua Van
KO (punches) R3 0:20 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 0 67 of 133 50% 72 of 140 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Joshua Van 1 88 of 191 46% 90 of 195 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 22 of 46 47% 27 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Joshua Van 0 44 of 80 55% 46 of 83 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
2 Charles Johnson 0 44 of 83 53% 44 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joshua Van 0 36 of 100 36% 36 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Charles Johnson 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joshua Van 1 8 of 11 72% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 67 of 133 50% 44 of 106 17 of 20 6 of 7 60 of 123 7 of 9 0 of 1
Joshua Van 88 of 191 46% 44 of 124 25 of 41 19 of 26 84 of 184 3 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 22 of 46 47% 13 of 36 8 of 9 1 of 1 16 of 37 6 of 8 0 of 1
Joshua Van 44 of 80 55% 18 of 41 13 of 23 13 of 16 41 of 74 3 of 6 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 44 of 83 53% 30 of 66 9 of 11 5 of 6 43 of 82 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joshua Van 36 of 100 36% 19 of 74 11 of 16 6 of 10 36 of 100 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Charles Johnson 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joshua Van 8 of 11 72% 7 of 9 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Johnson vs. Joshua Van
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-205), Johnson (+170)

Round 1
Capping off the prelims is the flyweights, who will likely engage in a high-paced frenzy of feet and fists. Van (10-1, 3-0 UFC), training out of 4oz Fight Club in Texas, comes in on an eight-fight win streak with stoppages in six of those. While he has only won two in a row, Johnson (15-6, 3-4 UFC) is on the first winning stretch of his UFC career as he has already picked up two decisions this year. This speedy affair will be joined in the cage by referee Joe Coca, and it kicks off with an appropriately quick glove touch. Johnson leads off in a hurry with a leg kick, a jab to the body and a high kick. Van blocks a subsequent body kick, and he keeps his guard up to defend a jab. Johnson picks at him from distance, mixing his attack up to all targets. As Johnson crashes forward, he clips Van with a right hand, and Van takes it flush and does not bat an eye. Johnson stays active with several chopping low kicks, flicking out jabs and flustering Van. Van tries to close the distance with his own strikes, but Johnson is far more active than the self-described slow starter. Johnson peppers him with jabs and low kicks, pushing out a front kick to make Van back away. Van pushes in with a jab and an overhand right, and he uses it to tie Johnson up. “InnerG” turns him around and pounds Van in the thigh and breadbasket with knees, and Van tries to fight out of it to no avail. Johnson shoots in for a double, and Van stonewalls him and backs him away with his own jab. Van protects his ribs with a kick and sets his right hand on the chin. Johnson strings together three punches in response, and he brushes his face to say Van did not land. Van ignores this and touches him two more times with an overhand right, and Johnson stumbles and escapes when backed to the cage. Van brings up a knee that bounces into the cup, and Johnson tells Coca he is fine and that there is no stoppage necessary. Van walks Johnson down, fighting behind a jab and landing right hands to follow. Van knocks his man off his feet, and Johnson defends with an armbar off his back. Johnson jumps back to his feet when Van pulls out of the submission, and he shoots for a takedown that fails. Johnson prods out jabs, and Van busts him in the chops with a right and a left. Van makes Johnson shell up with a right hand and two body shots, and the power difference is fast. Van puts a lot more behind his strikes, and he gets the reactions he seeks when landing until the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 2
Van comes out of his corner ready to pick up where he left off, marching “InnerG” down and landing a few strikes on the way in. Johnson is also similarly active, picking and poking with distance strikes. Van smashes him in the face with an uppercut, and Johnson does not like this and circles away. Van gives chase, chaining three punches together as Johnson escapes. The Terminator-like Van plods forward, aiming strikes to the body when not going up top. Johnson reaches out with a swiping left hook, and it does not make Van back up one inch. Van comes out throwing with two hooks, and Johnson barely gets out of the way. Johnson jabs twice and powers out a left hand, and Van no-sells him and gives him back a sharp jab that makes Johnson turn his head dismissively. Van pops him with a left and comes at him with a head kick, and Johnson bounces off the cage and lets loose with a right hand. Johnson whiffs on two hooks, and Van stays tightly compact and dings Johnson with a left hook on the nose. Van buckles the leg with a kick, ignoring Johnson’s jabs and straight punches. Johnson scores a left, and Van does too. Van jabs his way into a short combination, and Johnson punches back as he strafes to the side. Van nails him with a right hand, and Johnson shakes it off and throws back. Van loops a few right hands around the guard, and Johnson strikes back and gets in an elbow down the middle. Van keeps pursuing his foe, and the two flyweights are trading without fear. Johnson steps through with a knee, and Van responds with a right hand over the top and barely blocks a spinning back elbow in time. Van misses with a right as Johnson jumps forward, and his head kick is blocked. Two Johnson jabs end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 3
There is a brief glove touch to begin the last round, and Johnson lands the first strike with a right hand. As they both swing for the fences, Johnson nails his opponent with a right hand. Johnson blasts the body with a kick and ducks to avoid a screaming left hook, and he fakes a leg kick to spin with an elbow that bounces off Van’s forehead. Van tries to make him pay with an overhand right, but Johnson’s own fast right finds its mark and gets Van’s attention. Johnson jabs the body and comes up top with two punches, and his crisp right staggers “The Fearless.”
Johnson walks Van down and clobbers him with a thunderous uppercut, sending Van careening to the mat. As Johnson leaps down to smash Van with a big right hand, Coca dives between them, and Van’s head bounces off the mat to bring him back around.
While Van sits up to potentially protests the stoppage, he realizes he got his bell rung and that there is nothing more he can do. Johnson celebrates his wild comeback victory after a thrilling battle, and he sets the crowd up to drown out the arena with “USA” chants.

The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Joshua Van R3 0:20 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Angelo picks Charles Johnson as an underdog, citing his experience against higher-level competition and short-notice adaptability. He acknowledges Joshua Van's power and prospect status but believes Johnson's veteran savvy and awkward style could frustrate Van. Angelo has a small bet ($25, quarter unit) on Johnson at +170 and mentions a potential plus 3.5 round bet as a safer alternative.

Has a $25 bet at +170; considering plus 3.5 round bet for Johnson.
"I am going to pick Charles Johnson here I am going to go the underdog here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Cody picks Van, citing his youth, volume, and cardio. He notes Van's slow starts but believes his pace will overwhelm Johnson, who tends to fade. He expects Van to win by decision or late finish.

"Joshua Vans a play for me."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson to win a close decision. He notes that Johnson is a veteran who has been in tough battles and has prepared well for the altitude. He acknowledges Van's talent but thinks Van may face a roadblock. He likes the plus 180 underdog value and expects a split decision type fight.

"I'm g go with Charles Johnson with the veteran experience here uh via a very close type Split Decision type fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Joshua Van

Joshua Van's style is more reliable with consistent output. Despite a height and reach disadvantage, Van will crash the pocket and land body shots, setting up his striking game. The minus 200 line is a bit wide, but Van should win on the scorecards.

Van by decision; odds comment: line a bit wide
"the minus 200ish line on Van a little bit wide for my liking but I do think we see him come through and win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Joshua Van

Paul picks Van, citing his volume and cardio. He notes Johnson's tendency to lose rounds early and then fade, while Van gets stronger as the fight goes on. He expects Van to outwork Johnson and win a decision.

"I'm going to have to go with volume I'm going to go with Joshua van."
WIN vs Jake Hadley
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 1 70 of 168 41% 88 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Jake Hadley 0 48 of 128 37% 50 of 130 0 of 11 0% 0 0 2:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 19 of 40 47% 22 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jake Hadley 0 17 of 47 36% 17 of 47 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:35
2 Charles Johnson 1 32 of 74 43% 37 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Jake Hadley 0 20 of 38 52% 22 of 40 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
3 Charles Johnson 0 19 of 54 35% 29 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jake Hadley 0 11 of 43 25% 11 of 43 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 70 of 168 41% 36 of 125 12 of 18 22 of 25 66 of 159 0 of 2 4 of 7
Jake Hadley 48 of 128 37% 15 of 86 15 of 22 18 of 20 46 of 124 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 19 of 40 47% 5 of 21 5 of 8 9 of 11 19 of 39 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jake Hadley 17 of 47 36% 3 of 27 6 of 10 8 of 10 15 of 43 2 of 4 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 32 of 74 43% 19 of 58 4 of 7 9 of 9 28 of 67 0 of 0 4 of 7
Jake Hadley 20 of 38 52% 6 of 22 5 of 7 9 of 9 20 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Charles Johnson 19 of 54 35% 12 of 46 3 of 3 4 of 5 19 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jake Hadley 11 of 43 25% 6 of 37 4 of 5 1 of 1 11 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jake Hadley

Angelo leans towards Jake Hadley because he cannot trust Charles Johnson's one phenomenal showing over several mediocre ones. He notes Hadley has good takedowns and BJJ, though his takedown accuracy is low due to bailing on attempts. He acknowledges that if the version of Johnson that beat Azat Maksum shows up, he wins, but that version has only appeared once.

"I am going to lean Jake Hadley here because Jake Hadley has pretty good takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson, citing the hometown advantage in St. Louis and the possibility that Johnson can do enough on the feet while mixing in takedowns. He notes that Johnson has been taken down in every UFC fight but that Hadley has zero takedowns in the UFC, so the fight likely stays standing. He is not confident because Johnson can be low volume and hesitant, but if the version that fought Maxim shows up, he can win. He expects a decision and thinks the hometown rub could help Johnson in a close fight.

PrizePicks play: Jake Hadley more than 45.5 significant strikes
"I'm thinking about maybe taking the the hometown guy because I think he can do enough to win on the feet maybe mixing some takedowns in his own right and then also if it's a close fight or even if …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Cody picks Johnson as a confident underdog. He argues that Hadley is overhyped, with poor cardio, weak striking, and a questionable chin. Johnson has excellent get-up game, having been taken down many times but always getting back up. He also has superior boxing and volume. Cody believes Johnson can stuff takedowns or get up quickly, and outwork Hadley on the feet. He notes that Hadley has looked bad against wrestlers and grapplers, and Johnson is a tough veteran.

"Charles Johnson dog money over Hadley all day sign me up"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson, noting that the fighters who beat Johnson are relentless wrestlers, which Hadley is not. He believes Johnson's cardio and volume will be key, and that Hadley's weight cut (walking around 160 lbs) will be a factor. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Johnson.

by unanimous decision
"I'm going to have to go with Charles Johnson via unanimous decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Paul picks Johnson, echoing Cody's reasoning. He notes that Johnson showed improved takedown defense in his last fight and has never been submitted. Hadley's cardio and striking are suspect, and Johnson's volume should win rounds. Paul thinks Johnson's get-up game and durability will be key. He is confident in the underdog.

"Charles Johnson plus 140 for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson as an underdog over Jake Hadley. He criticizes Hadley's performance against Cody Durden, particularly his inability to secure takedowns and his stationary style. He praises Johnson's elusiveness, outside movement, Olympic-level cardio, and world-class takedown defense. He believes Johnson's style will frustrate Hadley and that Hadley's best wins come against fighters who stand in front of him.

"I'm gonna go the underdog of Charles Johnson here over Jake Hadley."
Lone'er Kavanagh - Fight History
SCHED vs Brandon Royval
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Feb 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Moreno 0 79 of 168 47% 134 of 229 0 of 8 0% 0 0 7:20
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 97 of 205 47% 136 of 245 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Moreno 0 19 of 40 47% 19 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 18 of 45 40% 18 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brandon Moreno 0 24 of 54 44% 24 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 42 of 83 50% 42 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brandon Moreno 0 16 of 40 40% 31 of 56 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:21
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 17 of 44 38% 20 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Brandon Moreno 0 9 of 15 60% 31 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:08
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 8 of 14 57% 29 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Brandon Moreno 0 11 of 19 57% 29 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:51
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 12 of 19 63% 27 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Moreno 79 of 168 47% 51 of 133 15 of 21 13 of 14 69 of 154 10 of 14 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 97 of 205 47% 60 of 160 18 of 24 19 of 21 92 of 198 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Moreno 19 of 40 47% 14 of 34 3 of 4 2 of 2 19 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 18 of 45 40% 10 of 33 3 of 7 5 of 5 18 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brandon Moreno 24 of 54 44% 13 of 40 6 of 9 5 of 5 23 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 42 of 83 50% 30 of 70 5 of 6 7 of 7 39 of 78 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Brandon Moreno 16 of 40 40% 13 of 35 2 of 4 1 of 1 16 of 39 0 of 1 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 17 of 44 38% 11 of 37 5 of 5 1 of 2 17 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Brandon Moreno 9 of 15 60% 5 of 10 1 of 1 3 of 4 5 of 8 4 of 7 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 8 of 14 57% 4 of 8 1 of 2 3 of 4 7 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Brandon Moreno 11 of 19 57% 6 of 14 3 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 14 5 of 5 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 12 of 19 63% 5 of 12 4 of 4 3 of 3 11 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Angelo hesitantly picks Brandon Moreno, acknowledging that Lone'er Kavanagh is fast and accurate and could give Moreno trouble early. He notes Moreno's five-round experience and toughness as key advantages, expecting him to outlast Kavanagh who may fade. He admits if it were a three-round fight with a full camp, he would pick Kavanagh.

Says he wouldn't be comfortable parlaying Moreno at almost three to one.
"I'm going to pick Moreno. I think he can just literally outlast Loner. But if this was a three round fight with a full fight camp, I'd be picking Loner Kavanaaugh right now."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Big Brady picks Brandon Moreno, citing his hometown advantage, experience as a former champion, and step down in competition. He notes Kavanagh looked good in the first round against Charles Johnson but faded and got knocked out. Brady believes Moreno's cardio, pressure, and minute-winning ability will lead to a decision win, possibly a late finish if Kavanagh slows down.

decision
"Give me Brandon Moreno to win this fight and win it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Cody points out Moreno's recent stylistic changes, lack of wrestling, and potential decline. He highlights Kavanagh's speed and power, and the danger of an early knockout. Despite these concerns, he picks Moreno due to the difficulty of betting against him, but strongly advises live betting or hedging.

"I will take Mareno just where whereas the narrative seems to be it's all Moreno and this is an easy fight... I think that there's some very real danger."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Connor agrees with Zane that Moreno should win, but he is slightly less confident due to Moreno's recent inconsistent performances. He notes that Moreno sometimes makes weird mistakes and that Kavanagh is a dangerous counterpuncher with speed and accuracy. However, Connor ultimately believes Moreno's experience and ability to pressure will be too much for Kavanagh, especially given Kavanagh's stamina concerns.

Kavanagh's counterpunching threat; Moreno's occasional weird mistakes; altitude factor
"I am forced to agree."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2024 (739 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Daniel picks Brandon Moreno to win, citing his well-rounded skills and fight IQ. He notes Moreno's takedown advantage against Royval's poor takedown defense, but acknowledges Royval's danger on the feet with unorthodox strikes. He expects Moreno to exploit takedown defense and control the fight on the ground, though he warns that Moreno has been dropped in recent fights.

"I think Brandon Moreno should get this one done too well-rounded and especially if he comes out here smart exploits that takedown defense of royval"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Brandon Moreno

The host is betting on Moreno despite his decline, because the circumstances heavily favor him. Moreno has experience fighting in Mexico City, excellent cardio, and has never been knocked out. Kavanagh is inexperienced (10 pro fights), a volume striker with no knockout power, and is fighting on short notice at high altitude. The host believes Kavanagh would need to finish Moreno or win a clear decision, both unlikely. He plans to parlay Moreno with Zellhuber.

Parlaying him with Daniel Zellhuber.
"I am happy to bet Moreno at big favorite odds here. He is on a decline. There's no doubt about it. But the probability of Kavanaaugh going to Mexico City on short notice with only 10 pro fights and getting …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

James believes Kavanagh is one of the best flyweights despite his loss to Charles Johnson, citing his speed, footwork, and counter-striking. He questions Moreno's consistency and recent performance, noting Moreno's age and potential decline. James sees value in Kavanagh at +210 odds, predicting Moreno may not push the pace needed to exploit Kavanagh's cardio concerns.

"I'm going to say that Lona Kavanaaugh is the value side here. I'm going to say Lona Cavanar is the winner of this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

The host picks Brandon Moreno inside the distance, expecting a round 4 or 5 finish. He notes Moreno's experience, cardio, and durability, and believes Kavanagh will fade in the later rounds due to altitude and short notice. He is surprised the line moved to -225 and considers it a great value. He predicts a late TKO or submission.

"Give me Brandon Moreno uh round four or five, TKO, maybe even submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Paul acknowledges Moreno's experience and cardio advantage, especially at altitude. He notes Moreno's wrestling and submission game are superior, and expects Moreno to take over in later rounds. He is puzzled by the money coming in on Kavanagh and recommends Moreno as a parlay piece, but suggests live betting for better value.

"I think Moreno's got the better wrestling and he's got the better submission game, and I think he's got the better cardio."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Brandon Moreno

The MMA Guru picks Brandon Moreno, noting that Lone'er Kavanagh has a cardio issue and gasses after about 7 minutes. He argues that Moreno is hard to finish early and that Kavanagh's only path to victory is a first-round TKO, which is unlikely at Mexico City altitude. He predicts a late-rounds TKO for Moreno, possibly in rounds 4 or 5.

round four or five TKO
"I'm going to go with Brandon Moreno round four or five TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Zane picks Moreno because Kavanagh is not ready for this level of competition, especially on short notice and at altitude. He notes that Kavanagh's gas tank was a problem against Charles Johnson, and Moreno's experience and ability to set a comfortable tempo will likely overwhelm him. Zane also mentions that Moreno has a reach advantage and is fighting at home, which should help him make better decisions.

Kavanagh's gas tank issues at altitude; Moreno's reach advantage; Kavanagh on three weeks notice; first five-round fight for Kavanagh
"I have to pick Moreno. It's an opportunity for Kavanaugh. Like, I get why both men took this fight."
LOSS vs Charles Johnson
KO R2 4:35 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 1 44 of 81 54% 52 of 89 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:32
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 59 of 120 49% 60 of 121 1 of 2 50% 1 1 0:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 14 of 25 56% 14 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 36 of 65 55% 37 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Charles Johnson 1 30 of 56 53% 38 of 64 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:22
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 23 of 55 41% 23 of 55 1 of 2 50% 1 1 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 44 of 81 54% 18 of 49 6 of 10 20 of 22 37 of 71 4 of 6 3 of 4
Lone'er Kavanagh 59 of 120 49% 32 of 83 21 of 26 6 of 11 53 of 111 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 14 of 25 56% 3 of 11 2 of 4 9 of 10 14 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 36 of 65 55% 17 of 37 14 of 18 5 of 10 34 of 63 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 30 of 56 53% 15 of 38 4 of 6 11 of 12 23 of 47 4 of 5 3 of 4
Lone'er Kavanagh 23 of 55 41% 15 of 46 7 of 8 1 of 1 19 of 48 4 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh but is hesitant, noting that Charles Johnson is a friend of the show and a good fighter. He praises Kavanagh's speed, power, and ability to transition to wrestling instantly. He thinks the odds are too wide and that Johnson is not a 2-to-1 underdog. He says he'll be rooting for Johnson but thinks Kavanagh probably gets it done due to speed and volume.

Odds are -200 for Kavanagh; Angelo thinks Johnson is not a 2-to-1 underdog.
"Loner Kavanaaugh is probably the pick just given all the other circumstances."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Big Brady picks Lone'er Kavanagh to win a close decision, noting that Kavanagh is a real prospect with power and takedown ability. He criticizes Charles Johnson for consistently losing first rounds and being takedown-prone. He believes Kavanagh will win rounds one and two, while Johnson may take round three, leading to a decision for Kavanagh.

Kavanagh by decision
"I'm going Kavanaaugh to win a close decision in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The host notes that Kavanagh is usually at super chalky odds but here at -180, it's a great entry point. He thinks Johnson may not have the power to get Kavanagh's respect, and while Johnson may have an advantage in output and volume, Kavanagh should mix martial arts well with power strikes, speed, and takedowns to win on the scorecards.

odds comment: -180 is a great entry point
"We're so used to seeing Kavanaaugh at super chalky odds, but here at minus 180. I think this is a great entry point against a guy in Charles Johnson who may not have the power to get the respect from …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson to win by decision as an underdog (+170). He believes Johnson's experience and ability to survive and push the pace will be key. He notes that Kavanagh struggled in close fights against Jose Ochoa and Felipe dos Santos, and that Johnson is hard to outgrapple effectively. He expects Johnson to have a strong third round and win a close decision, though he acknowledges Kavanagh could land a knockout.

Charles Johnson by decision; underdog +170
"Charles Johnson's going to get the upset win in my opinion. He's an underdog. He's plus 170."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 58 of 97 59% 71 of 112 4 of 6 66% 0 0 6:33
Felipe dos Santos 0 51 of 104 49% 92 of 147 0 of 3 0% 1 0 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Felipe dos Santos 0 15 of 32 46% 23 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:43
2 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 29 of 51 56% 42 of 66 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:36
Felipe dos Santos 0 25 of 36 69% 45 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
3 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 18 of 23 78% 18 of 23 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:18
Felipe dos Santos 0 11 of 36 30% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lone'er Kavanagh 58 of 97 59% 37 of 71 11 of 15 10 of 11 29 of 56 3 of 6 26 of 35
Felipe dos Santos 51 of 104 49% 28 of 67 9 of 21 14 of 16 28 of 77 4 of 4 19 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lone'er Kavanagh 11 of 23 47% 1 of 12 2 of 3 8 of 8 10 of 19 1 of 4 0 of 0
Felipe dos Santos 15 of 32 46% 3 of 12 5 of 12 7 of 8 13 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Lone'er Kavanagh 29 of 51 56% 25 of 45 3 of 4 1 of 2 5 of 20 1 of 1 23 of 30
Felipe dos Santos 25 of 36 69% 18 of 27 3 of 4 4 of 5 8 of 16 2 of 2 15 of 18
3 Lone'er Kavanagh 18 of 23 78% 11 of 14 6 of 8 1 of 1 14 of 17 1 of 1 3 of 5
Felipe dos Santos 11 of 36 30% 7 of 28 1 of 5 3 of 3 7 of 31 0 of 0 4 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh, emphasizing his incredible speed and composure. He acknowledges that Kavanagh hasn't faced top competition and that Felipe's forward pressure will test him. He wants to see if Kavanagh can fight backwards and counter-strike. Ultimately, he trusts Kavanagh's speed and potential, though he admits we'll learn a lot about him in this fight.

"ultimately I'm going to pick him cuz he's just so damn fast"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Brady likes Kavanagh's clean striking and power, and notes dos Santos has poor takedown defense and striking defense. He thinks Kavanagh can mix in takedowns if needed. Despite dos Santos being tough, Brady predicts a decision win for Kavanagh.

Kavanagh by decision
"give me lonni Kavanagh here I do think Felipe dos Santos is very tough ... so I'll say it's a lonni Kavanagh by decision win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The host considers Kavanagh one of the hottest UK prospects and expects him to showcase his skills. Dos Santos might make it close early, but as Kavanagh's damage piles up, he will cause dos Santos to break, leading to a late finish or decision win.

late finish or decision
"Kavanagh is one of the hottest prospects to come out of the UK in a while and I think that he'll be able to showcase those chops here against dos Santos."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The Guru picks Lone'er Kavanagh, believing he is crisper on the feet and has good grappling instincts. He notes that Kavanagh is compact and beats opponents to the punch, while dos Santos has been in many scraps and may be more damaged. He expects a TKO in the second or third round, as Kavanagh's pressure and body work will wear down dos Santos.

TKO round 2 or 3
"I'm gonna go with Lona kavana over Felipe dos Santos I think Lona kavar would smoke Victor Al Morana"
WIN vs Jose Ochoa
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Nov 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 51 of 126 40% 51 of 126 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Jose Ochoa 0 50 of 158 31% 59 of 168 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 21 of 45 46% 21 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jose Ochoa 0 19 of 44 43% 19 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Jose Ochoa 0 20 of 60 33% 29 of 70 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:33
3 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 12 of 35 34% 12 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jose Ochoa 0 11 of 54 20% 11 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lone'er Kavanagh 51 of 126 40% 24 of 74 12 of 28 15 of 24 50 of 124 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jose Ochoa 50 of 158 31% 13 of 78 13 of 40 24 of 40 49 of 156 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lone'er Kavanagh 21 of 45 46% 6 of 21 4 of 10 11 of 14 21 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jose Ochoa 19 of 44 43% 3 of 19 2 of 6 14 of 19 19 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lone'er Kavanagh 18 of 46 39% 9 of 28 7 of 11 2 of 7 17 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jose Ochoa 20 of 60 33% 7 of 29 6 of 20 7 of 11 19 of 58 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Lone'er Kavanagh 12 of 35 34% 9 of 25 1 of 7 2 of 3 12 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jose Ochoa 11 of 54 20% 3 of 30 5 of 14 3 of 10 11 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Jose Ochoa

Round 1
A pair of unbeaten newcomers with seven wins apiece meet in hopes of keeping their spotless records intact. The prospects of Kavanagh (7-0, 0-0 UFC) are high, with many calling for him to get a call up to the big leagues after wiping out Davide Scarano with a spinning back kick in 2023. It took a bit longer than he expected, but he made it, and he meets Ochoa (7-0, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC). While the Brit has heard the final bell in the past, Ochoa has never even fought into the third round. Referee Mark Craig will have his hands full with these flyweights for as long as it goes. They share a sporting glove touch to get started, and Kavanagh strikes first with a low kick. Kavanagh parries the jabs Ochoa is setting up, ignoring a stomping kick to his knees so he can work his way in. Kavanagh has to hop back to block a head kick, and he presses forward with a push kick. Ochoa chops at the lead leg with a kick, and Kavanagh responds in kind. A head kick buzzes past Ochoa’s face in the blink of an eye, with the Peruvian looking at it with bemusement. Kavanagh chips at the front leg, and Ochoa does the same as they do not set up much else. Kavanagh nails the lead leg with a kick that makes Ochoa recoil it, and he dodges a counter right over the top when loosing a body kick. Kavanagh blocks a front kick and whiffs with a head kick, and he sees Ochoa come barreling towards him and blonks him on the head with a right hook. The Peruvian wears it well and lets fly a head kick that is blocked, with the two going tit-for-tat against one another. Ochoa connects with two leg kicks, and the crowd starts wooing as it is not entertained. Both fighters come up short on power strikes, with Kavanagh eventually reaching with a leg kick and then one to the ribs. Kavanagh closes in when Ochoa attempts a spinning back fist, and he chews up the inside and outside of Ochoa’s right leg with kicks. Ochoa goes wide with a haymaker, and Kavanagh slips the strikes and responds with a left hook that cuts Ochoa’s right eye. In a flurry of strikes, a Kavanagh kick does not find the right area and instead blasts Ochoa square in the family jewels. Ochoa walks off in pain, and Kavanagh knows what he did and apologizes. Craig calls time and tells Ochoa he has plenty of time to recover, and Ochoa is not having a good time right now. It takes over a minute for Ochoa to stand up, and he asks for a chance to wipe his bloodied eye that is cut on the lid. After 90 seconds, Ochoa is good to go, and they share a glove touch to restart. Kavanagh reintroduces himself with two more accurate leg kicks, and he allows Ochoa to kick him so he can plant a capoeira kick on his ribs. An Ochoa kick appears to go low, but Kavanagh waves it off and they trade front kicks. A clean Ochoa front kick drives Kavanagh back, and Kavanagh rushes at him swinging two hooks and a kick before the horn sounds. 10-9 Kavanagh.

Round 2
The fighters share a glove touch to get going in Round 2, with Kavanagh twirling about when not committing entirely to a leg kick. He instead aims one to the side, and he leans back when Ochoa’s feet fly past his face. Ochoa scores a Mortal Kombat-inspired sweep kick to the low leg, and Kavanagh no-sells it and responds with a head kick. Kavanagh chambers and fires a slapping leg kick, hoping to set up a high kick but Ochoa is wise to the latter. Ochoa keeps his hands dangerously low as he prods out with front kicks, and he sways back when Kavanagh kicks at him. Kavanagh scores a right hand, has a kick roll off his shoulder and prepares to fire off a counter. The right hand that comes from the Brit puts Ochoa on his seat, and Ochoa, grinning the whole time, climbs back to his feet. Ochoa attacks the front leg repeatedly, landing three or four until Kavanagh lets fly a booming body kick. Ochoa’s kicks keep his man at safe range until Kavanagh gets sick of waiting and lunges to blaze him with a right and then a huge left hook. Ochoa wants to engage, smiling all the while, and he absorbs a powerful left hand that makes him smile and bleed. Kavanagh’s poker face never changes as he unleashes kicks to the body and front leg, and Ochoa splits the distance and delivers a clean body shot. Ochoa chains and fires a few flashy strikes together that all miss, and he tries a capoeira kick that comes up short. Kavanagh stays composed and dings him with a left hook to draw more blood, and his leg kick keeps battering the front leg. Ochoa splits the guard with a front kick, and this makes Kavanagh bite down on his mouthpiece to engage. Ochoa appears to get the better of the exchange, hurting the former Cage Warriors fighter with a long series of punches. Ochoa changes the strikes to body shots, lowering Kavanagh to the floor until Kavanagh shoots desperately. The Peruvian jumps around to take the back, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke while on his foe’s back. Kavanagh leans against the fence to survive the submission, with the horn ending the round. 10-9 Ochoa.

Round 3
The fighters reach the final frame and clap hands, and it could be all tied up or Kavanagh could be ahead. No matter the score, the competitors get to business before long. Legs fly from both sides, with Ochoa picking and poking with kicks high and low, and his body kick draws a reaction out of his man. With Ochoa selling out for kicks, Kavanagh times a left hand that drops Ochoa. Kavanagh does not go wild for long, letting Ochoa have it but paying attention to when the jump knee inevitably comes at him. Ochoa gathers himself and beats on the body with kicks, and Kavanagh returns fire with two that leave mean looking welts on Ochoa’s waist. Kavanagh lunges with a left hook, and he nails the front leg with a kick. Ochoa digs a left to head and right to the body, and Kavanagh pays him back with a short but fierce combination. Ochoa tries to sweep the leg dramatically, and this time it is way short and the crowd boos him. The two crash together with offense, as Ochoa tries a head kick while too close. Kavanagh slips a huge punch to escape from harm, hand-fighting and letting loose with a head kick. Ochoa shrugs at him and belts him with a low kick. Ochoa chases Kavanagh down, walking into a jump knee as he spins with a back fist that bangs into the chest. Kavanagh strafes to the side, avoiding a hook kick and a head kick with active movement. Ochoa’s kicks miss again and again, resulting in Ochoa shrugging at him. Kavanagh wraps a head kick around the guard, and they both land with their fists. Ochoa steps in with a knee, and he gets countered with a left over the top and has a head kick graze his chin. Ochoa walks Kavanagh down without fear, kicking his way into a single-leg takedown attempt that fails. Kavanagh intercepts a kick to blast Ochoa in the face with a right hand, and he spins with a wheel kick that connects cleanly. The two fighters hug it out, and Kavanagh hits a back flip just because he can. 10-9 Kavanagh (29-28 Kavanagh).

The Official Result
Lone'er Kavanagh def. Jose Ochoa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh, emphasizing his incredible speed and raw power. He believes Kavanagh's high-level training and speed will be the difference, as Ochoa will struggle to see shots coming. He notes both are finishers and suggests an under on round lines could be a play.

under on round lines could be a sneaky good play
"his speed is the difference his High Level Training will be the difference"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Big Brady picks Kavanagh to win by decision. He acknowledges the hype on Kavanagh from his contender series knockout but notes Jose Ochoa is dangerous with power. He believes Kavanagh has more ways to win with better tools on the feet and ground, and can mix in takedowns. He expects a back-and-forth war that goes the distance with Kavanagh getting his hand raised.

"I'll take Kavanaugh to win this fight I think it's going to be one of those back and forth Wars where it somehow ends up going the distance and I think it's Kavanagh that gets his hand raised"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Cody picks Kavanagh confidently, calling him a top prospect with dynamic striking and grappling. He notes that Ochoa is a tough Peruvian brawler but lacks the technical skills to hang with Kavanagh. He expects Kavanagh to win by knockout, possibly early, and sees him as a top ticket play.

"I got Kavanaugh kav's probably on my top ticket for being real I think he I think he smokes him"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Daniel Vreeland praises both fighters as studs but gives the edge to Kavanagh due to being more seasoned and having fought higher-level competition. He notes that Ochoa is impressive and could be a top prospect soon, but Kavanagh's experience and maturity make him the pick. However, he mentions he would bet on Ochoa as an underdog due to the value.

"pure pick I'll take Lan Kavanagh because of the experience the maturity all that but if I'm gonna bet this fight I'm Gonna Roll the Dice on this kid Ooa at plus 290 plus 300"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Paul agrees, noting Kavanagh's footwork and power are on another level. He acknowledges Ochoa's toughness but thinks Kavanagh's technique will be too much. He expects a dominant performance and is comfortable laying the chalk.

"I'm glad it's early because if I'm going to lose my shirt it may be rebuild"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The MMA Guru is high on Lone'er Kavanagh, describing him as a savage with nasty combos and highlight-reel finishes. He notes Kavanagh has faced tougher competition, with his last three opponents having a combined record of 16-0. He believes Kavanagh's power at flyweight and good takedown defense will be key, and predicts a TKO win in round one or two. He thinks it would take a gritty veteran to beat Kavanagh.

TKO early, round one or two
"I'm going Lo Lona kavar getting this one done by TKO early in the fight I'll say round one or two"
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh but is hesitant, noting that Charles Johnson is a friend of the show and a good fighter. He praises Kavanagh's speed, power, and ability to transition to wrestling instantly. He thinks the odds are too wide and that Johnson is not a 2-to-1 underdog. He says he'll be rooting for Johnson but thinks Kavanagh probably gets it done due to speed and volume.

Odds are -200 for Kavanagh; Angelo thinks Johnson is not a 2-to-1 underdog.
"Loner Kavanaaugh is probably the pick just given all the other circumstances."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Big Brady picks Lone'er Kavanagh to win a close decision, noting that Kavanagh is a real prospect with power and takedown ability. He criticizes Charles Johnson for consistently losing first rounds and being takedown-prone. He believes Kavanagh will win rounds one and two, while Johnson may take round three, leading to a decision for Kavanagh.

Kavanagh by decision
"I'm going Kavanaaugh to win a close decision in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The host notes that Kavanagh is usually at super chalky odds but here at -180, it's a great entry point. He thinks Johnson may not have the power to get Kavanagh's respect, and while Johnson may have an advantage in output and volume, Kavanagh should mix martial arts well with power strikes, speed, and takedowns to win on the scorecards.

odds comment: -180 is a great entry point
"We're so used to seeing Kavanaaugh at super chalky odds, but here at minus 180. I think this is a great entry point against a guy in Charles Johnson who may not have the power to get the respect from Kavanaaugh."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson to win by decision as an underdog (+170). He believes Johnson's experience and ability to survive and push the pace will be key. He notes that Kavanagh struggled in close fights against Jose Ochoa and Felipe dos Santos, and that Johnson is hard to outgrapple effectively. He expects Johnson to have a strong third round and win a close decision, though he acknowledges Kavanagh could land a knockout.

Charles Johnson by decision; underdog +170
"Charles Johnson's going to get the upset win in my opinion. He's an underdog. He's plus 170."