Career Averages - Dan Ige
Career Averages - Andre Fili
Dan Ige
Andre Fili
Dan Ige - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Melquizael Costa | 1 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 26 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Melquizael Costa | 1 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 26 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 7 of 11 | 63% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Melquizael Costa | 19 of 40 | 47% | 9 of 26 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 7 of 11 | 63% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Melquizael Costa | 19 of 40 | 47% | 9 of 26 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Jacob Montalvo is the referee. Ige takes the center, kicks the leg and then lands a takedown. Costa is right back up as Ige presses him into the cage. Ige with a shoulder strike from the clinch. Costa is able to toss Ige to the canvas and then lands a knee to the body as his foe stands. They’re battling it out in the clinch, and Costa drives a couple knees to the midsection. Costa with another knee and then he shoves Ige away. Costa goes high with a kick, but Ige has his guard up .Another high kick from Costa is blocked. Costa follows yet another head kick with a front kick down the middle. Another front kick has hurt Ige, but he keeps his wits to survive a follow-up barrage from his foe. Costa steps in with an elbow, then lands a knee as he slides out of range. Ige forces the clinch, but Costa knees and separates. Costa follows a side kick to the body with a left hand. A leg kick lands on Ige. Costa backs up to the fence but leaps in with a knee.
With time winding down, Costa drops Ige with a beautiful spinning back kick to the jaw. Ige covers up on the canvas, and Costa unloads with about seven to eight standing-to-ground punches before Montalvo steps in to wave off the fight.
Costa has his sixth straight UFC win and in the process becomes the first person to finish Ige in 30 professional fights.
The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Dan Ige via TKO (Spinning Back Kick and Punches) R1 4:56
Angelo picks Melquizael Costa, citing his speed, busy style, and well-rounded skills. He respects Dan Ige's toughness and experience but believes Costa is the rising star. He also suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Ige as a potential prop, noting Ige often wins rounds even in losses.
Big Brady picks Melquizael Costa to defeat Dan Ige, citing Costa's hot streak and superior minute-winning. He notes Costa has more tools on the feet, including kicks, and that Ige is hittable and tends to lose decisions. He is concerned about Ige's last performance against Pitbull, where he did nothing. He predicts Costa will win by decision, picking him apart with volume. He mentions the line moved from -120 to -185, indicating public money on Costa.
Cody likes Ige at plus money, citing his recent performances against top competition (Diego Lopez, Lerone Murphy, Patricio Pitbull) where he won rounds. He thinks Costa's wrestling isn't proven and that Ige's cardio and power in later rounds give him an edge. He expects a decision win for Ige.
Connor picks Ige but with caution, noting that Costa is an opportunistic fighter who has been winning but often in messy ways. He points out that Costa tends to fade in the third round and that Ige is durable and a good counter puncher. He also notes that Ige has been impossible to finish and that Costa's lack of process could be exploited by Ige's experience.
The host favors Costa stylistically due to his size, length, and technical striking, but considers the odds too steep to bet. He notes both fighters are weak on the ground, and Ige has one-shot knockout power, making Costa a risky bet at -224. He passes on betting either side.
James picks Dan Ige as the betting side, believing Ige has better pocket boxing and power, and that Costa's cardio and durability are questionable. He notes that Ige has faced much tougher competition and that Costa's recent wins are over lesser opponents. James expects Ige to get a knockout, possibly in the later rounds as Costa fades.
Costa is on a five-fight winning streak with good activity and a kicking game that should trouble Ige. Ige is a veteran boxer but has struggled against high-volume strikers. Costa's range and kicks should keep Ige at bay, and he should land the more significant strikes. Ige could have success if he crashes the pocket, but Costa should win a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Ige's ability to win rounds against elite fighters. He points out that Costa has slowed down in later rounds and that Ige's takedown defense has improved. He thinks the fight goes to decision and Ige's experience gives him the edge.
The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige by TKO, feeling that Ige's composure and power will catch Costa. He notes that Costa sometimes throws lazy kicks and can be caught on the back foot. He believes Ige is the highest-level opponent Costa has faced and can time him for a KO.
Zane also picks Ige with the same caution, agreeing that Costa's success is partly smoke and mirrors. He notes that Costa is not a process-driven fighter and that opponents who are resilient tend to do better against him as the fight goes on. He believes Ige's counter-punching and durability will be key, but acknowledges Costa could win if he lands a big shot early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrício Pitbull | 0 | 47 of 124 | 37% | 59 of 145 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 55 of 97 | 56% | 71 of 114 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrício Pitbull | 0 | 6 of 28 | 21% | 10 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 | |
| 2 | Patrício Pitbull | 0 | 19 of 51 | 37% | 19 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 37 of 58 | 63% | 47 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 3 | Patrício Pitbull | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 30 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 17 of 33 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrício Pitbull | 47 of 124 | 37% | 24 of 93 | 15 of 23 | 8 of 8 | 38 of 109 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 10 |
| Dan Ige | 55 of 97 | 56% | 42 of 82 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 42 of 82 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrício Pitbull | 6 of 28 | 21% | 1 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 7 of 13 | 53% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Patrício Pitbull | 19 of 51 | 37% | 10 of 38 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 37 of 58 | 63% | 30 of 50 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 25 of 45 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | |
| 3 | Patrício Pitbull | 22 of 45 | 48% | 13 of 34 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 |
| Dan Ige | 11 of 26 | 42% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dan Ige, calling him a tough, durable journeyman who has fought top competition in the UFC. He is wary of the Patricio Pitbull trap after Pitbull's loss in his UFC debut. He thinks Ige's will and determination will carry him, but he won't bet on it.
Big Brady picks Dan Ige, citing Pitbull's age (38), declining durability, low volume, and lack of wrestling. He notes Ige has advantages in size, reach, volume, durability, and competition level. He predicts Ige wins by knockout, as Pitbull has been dropped recently.
Connor believes Pitbull's patient counterpunching style is a great matchup against Ige, who tends to rush in and make mistakes. He notes that Ige lacks a range game and often gets hit while coming forward, which plays into Pitbull's strengths. He sees Pitbull capitalizing on Ige's aggression with counters and takedowns.
The host believes Ige's volume output and ability to manage distance and pace will be key to shutting down Pitbull's power striking. He expects Ige to have a competitive first round but then chip away and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige over Patrício Pitbull, predicting a KO win. He criticizes Pitbull as a jack-of-all-trades but master of none, lacking dominant grappling or KO power. Ige is described as a short, stocky power puncher who can crack on the inside, similar to Michael Chandler who knocked out Pitbull. The Guru also references Pitbull's poor performance against Yair Rodriguez and believes Ige will put him away. He notes that Ige is a slight favorite and should be a bigger favorite.
Zane agrees, stating that Ige's style of rushing forward with flurries is exactly what Pitbull thrives against. He notes that Ige's lack of a range game and tendency to get hit while pressing forward will allow Pitbull to land counters and control the fight. He sees this as a much better matchup for Pitbull than the Yair Rodriguez fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 0 | 44 of 107 | 41% | 53 of 116 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Sean Woodson | 0 | 51 of 115 | 44% | 57 of 121 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 0 | 9 of 37 | 24% | 9 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Sean Woodson | 0 | 26 of 51 | 50% | 26 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dan Ige | 0 | 15 of 41 | 36% | 17 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Sean Woodson | 0 | 18 of 49 | 36% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Dan Ige | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 27 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sean Woodson | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 44 of 107 | 41% | 28 of 78 | 11 of 20 | 5 of 9 | 41 of 104 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Woodson | 51 of 115 | 44% | 36 of 98 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 51 of 115 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 9 of 37 | 24% | 4 of 25 | 1 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Woodson | 26 of 51 | 50% | 15 of 39 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 26 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dan Ige | 15 of 41 | 36% | 9 of 30 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Woodson | 18 of 49 | 36% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dan Ige | 20 of 29 | 68% | 15 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 17 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Sean Woodson | 7 of 15 | 46% | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Connor also picks Sean Woodson, emphasizing the size mismatch and Ige's lack of a range game. He notes that Woodson's pocket boxing is superior to Andre Fili's, making him more likely to survive Ige's counters. Connor warns that Woodson's lunging and shifting could give Ige opportunities, but believes Ige's limited avenues to victory make Woodson the safer pick.
Daniel Levi picked Sean Woodson but never got the price he wanted, so he passed. He emphasizes the importance of getting the best number and not forcing bets. He notes that even though Woodson lost, he saved money by not betting at unfavorable odds.
Zane picks Sean Woodson due to the massive size difference and Dan Ige's historical struggles against tall fighters. He notes that Woodson has been improving his range game, though it can be gimmicky, and that Ige's limited game makes him uncomfortable against rangy opponents. Zane acknowledges that Ige is a dangerous counter puncher and could make Woodson pay for overcommitting, but ultimately believes Woodson's advantages outweigh the risks.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 52 of 100 | 52% | 78 of 133 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Dan Ige | 1 | 46 of 106 | 43% | 52 of 116 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 2 | 4:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 18 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Dan Ige | 1 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:30 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 36 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 12 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:43 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 24 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 3 of 17 | 17% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 52 of 100 | 52% | 36 of 77 | 12 of 17 | 4 of 6 | 37 of 80 | 12 of 16 | 3 of 4 |
| Dan Ige | 46 of 106 | 43% | 35 of 92 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 32 of 79 | 6 of 16 | 8 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 17 of 32 | 53% | 11 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 14 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 32 of 60 | 53% | 27 of 53 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 39 | 5 of 11 | 8 of 10 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 19 of 42 | 45% | 12 of 31 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 36 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
| Dan Ige | 11 of 29 | 37% | 5 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 16 of 26 | 61% | 13 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 |
| Dan Ige | 3 of 17 | 17% | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Lerone Murphy confidently. He praises Murphy's striking, footwork, and power, and believes he is too clean a striker for Dan Ige. He thinks Murphy's ability to mix striking and wrestling will keep Ige guessing. He also notes both fighters are tough and expects the over 2.5 rounds to be solid.
Big Brady likes Murphy in this fight, believing he has more paths to win and is better everywhere. He praises Murphy's striking in his last fight against Edson Barboza and notes that Murphy can mix in takedowns, while Ige has shown he can be taken down and controlled. He predicts Murphy will win by decision, doing better work on the feet and mixing in occasional takedowns.
Cody picks Lerone Murphy, citing his well-rounded skills, reach advantage, and recent win over Edson Barboza. He notes that Ige is undersized, has poor takedown defense, and relies on power that may not translate against a longer, more technical striker. Cody believes Murphy's volume and precision will overwhelm Ige, and that Murphy can mix in takedowns if needed.
Connor picks Murphy, emphasizing that Ige struggles when forced to lead and lacks range tools. Murphy's jab and footwork can keep Ige at distance, and his size and reach advantage should allow him to control the fight. Connor notes that Ige is dangerous in the pocket but Murphy can avoid that by fighting at range.
Daniel Vreeland picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision, highlighting Murphy's volume striking and top-five potential. He notes that Murphy out-landed Edson Barboza with 220 significant strikes over five rounds and that Ige's toughness and power are his main advantages. Vreeland believes Murphy's skill set and minute-winning ability will carry him to a clear decision win.
Lucrative James picks Lerone Murphy to win, citing Murphy's superior technical striking, fight IQ, and grappling upside. He believes Murphy is the better all-around fighter and can win via striking or takedowns. He acknowledges Ige's power and experience but thinks Murphy's calculated approach will prevail. He expects Murphy to look good and possibly call for a title shot.
Murphy is the better overall fighter with slicker striking and more damaging offense on the feet. He can also grind Ige out in clinch positions and take him down. Ige's boxing will be muzzled by Murphy's superior athleticism. Murphy wins on the scorecards.
Paul picks Murphy, emphasizing his reach advantage and superior striking. He notes that Ige struggles against bigger fighters and has never landed over 88 significant strikes in a fight. Paul believes Murphy's length and technical boxing will keep Ige at range, and that Murphy's takedown defense has improved. He also mentions that Ige's wrestling is not a threat.
The Guru picks Lerone Murphy by decision, arguing that Murphy's technical, well-rounded style is a bad matchup for Dan Ige. He notes that Ige struggles against fighters who can mix in grappling and fight at range, and that Murphy's jab, low kicks, and clinch work will outpoint Ige. He compares Murphy to fighters like Calvin Kattar and Movsar Evloev who have beaten Ige with technical breakdowns. The Guru acknowledges Ige's power but believes Murphy's discipline will earn a 29-28 decision.
Zane expected Murphy to win but noted he took the hardest path, getting caught early by a huge counter due to overstepping. He credited Murphy's durability and conditioning for bouncing back and winning. Zane emphasized that Ige is a dangerous pocket fighter with a great chin, but Murphy minded the pocket and won scrambles to secure the win.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Ige is a counter puncher who struggles when forced to lead. Murphy's jab and range management should neutralize Ige's offense. Zane points to Ige's losses to fighters who kept him at range and thinks Murphy can replicate that.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 42 of 77 | 54% | 67 of 103 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 49 of 100 | 49% | 90 of 143 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 4:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 2 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 17 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 51 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:10 | |
| 3 | Diego Lopes | 0 | 25 of 41 | 60% | 41 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 16 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | 42 of 77 | 54% | 34 of 67 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 24 of 53 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 20 |
| Dan Ige | 49 of 100 | 49% | 32 of 74 | 8 of 14 | 9 of 12 | 38 of 85 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Lopes | 9 of 24 | 37% | 6 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 22 of 47 | 46% | 16 of 38 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 37 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Diego Lopes | 8 of 12 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Dan Ige | 12 of 16 | 75% | 6 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Diego Lopes | 25 of 41 | 60% | 22 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 18 |
| Dan Ige | 15 of 37 | 40% | 10 of 27 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 33 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogODDS: Lopes (-275), Ige (+220)
Round 1
The sport never fails to surprise. As recent as a few hours ago, two-time former featherweight title challenger Ortega was planning on facing surging 145er Lopes (24-6, 3-1 UFC). That fight came together on quite short notice, and as a result, Ortega was unable to make 146 pounds comfortably—transforming the matchup into a lightweight affair. However, on fight day, Ortega fell ill and was forced out of the fight. In a first for the UFC, Xtreme Couture product Ige (18-7, 10-6 UFC), who trains in Las Vegas, is stepping up to serve as the latest-notice replacement imaginable. Again, this has never happened before. Ige hit the scale at 164.5 pounds today, making the 165-pound catchweight affair official—the magnificently mulleted Lopes weighed 161 pounds on the other side of the equation. The two will give it their all while referee Jason Herzog keeps things clean, and they decide to touch ‘em up before swinging for the fences. Lopes starts right out in the center of the cage, keeping his guard up to parry early jabs from the Hawaiian. Lopes lands a quick leg kick, ducks down and lets go with two fast punches. Ige comes in to swing, and Lopes dips to drive a counter knee up the middle. Ige counters on the way out, and they reset with Lopes pawing with a front kick. Ige misses a huge left hand, and Lopes catches him with a knee that spins his man around. Ige twirls and recovers without issue, evading the worst of the rest that comes his way. Ige shells up to protect against a few punches and a step-in elbow, and he lets Lopes bounce punches off his guard. Lopes sneaks in a knee, and he strings three punches around the guard as well. Lopes slams his shin on the outside of Ige’s front leg and flashes a jab, and the two in alternating stances hand-fight on the outer edge. Ige swings and misses, and Lopes meets him with a right hand before Ige backs off. Lopes whiffs with a jump knee, and he lands lobbing hooks from both hand. Ige prevents them from getting to him and pushes Lopes away, keeping his guard up to defend against a head kick that follows. Lopes winds up on a power right hand, and it is one-and-done as Ige lets it harmless clatter off the guard. Ige ducks down to race forward and engage in a slugfest, and Lopes drives him back with a combination punctuated with an uppercut. Ige walks through a low kick to shoot for a takedown, and Lopes hits the ground and instinctively snatches up a guillotine choke. Ige turns to the right direction, and Lopes adjusts his grip to set up a brabo choke. Ige keeps twisting and returns to his feet, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Round 2
The fighters jog towards one another to start the second round, where they share a fist bump. Ige is the initial aggressor, sliding in to deliver a straight left hand and slipping away to not get countered. Lopes chambers and fires a calf kick that spurs Ige into movement, and Lopes is ready for him coming in and tags him with a right hand. Lopes works on the front leg again, forcing a stance switch. Lopes tries to jab and is caught with a right hand behind the ear, and he shakes it off and meanders forward to let go with a leg kick. Ige returns fire with his own calf kick, prompting Lopes to loose a few body shots. A few jabs have opened a cut on the bridge of Ige’s nose, and he pays it no mind and slings a head kick that bangs onto the man with the mullet. Lopes grabs hold of it and chucks the Hawaiian down to the ground, where Ige scrambles and is quick to recover back to his feet. Lopes follows him and gets hold of him from behind, and he allows Ige to roll through so he can maintain the back control while locking down a body triangle in a hurry. Lopes softens Ige up with short, frustrating right hands, and he searches for a rear-naked choke but does not have a free hand to get it. Ige turns over to his knees, and Lopes adjusts his leg lock around the waist to keep Ige stuck in his grasp. Lopes smacks Ige upside the head a few times, and his search for the choke is fruitless as Ige maintains smart two-on-one wrist control. Lopes keeps bopping Ige with minor strikes, and Ige turns to his side and start slugging Lopes in the face with surprisingly powerful blows. Lopes transitions to an armbar with seconds to spare, and Ige turns over and rides it out to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Round 3
Lopes offers a double glove touch and pats Ige on the side to initiate the final frame, and he backs away to commence offense. The Brazilian reaches out with a front kick while adjusting his gloves, and Ige walks through it and a low kick to back Lopes to the wall. Ige loops a left hand over the top that brushes Lopes’ hair, and he tries again and does the same. Lopes gets off six punches in a rapid flurry while Ige chucks one bomb, and Lopes is not concerned about the flamethrowing Hawaiian. Lopes gets out a jab, and Ige touches him with a right hand that briefly wobbles Lopes. Lopes fires back with an uppercut, and he appears to have his legs beneath him again in a hurry. Ige charges swinging punches, and he walks into a leg kick that disrupts his movement. Lopes rushes him and nearly completes a takedown, but Ige scrambles to burst back to his feet. Ige walks Lopes down, who may be flagging, and he has his right hand ready to release. Ige releases it. Lopes takes it on the temple and absorbs a subsequent uppercut, and he digs a left to the body and right to the head. A huge left hand from the Hawaiian knocks Lopes against the fencing, prompting a desperation single from the Brazilian. Lopes manages to turn the corner and drive Ige down to a knee, and Ige stands back up with a hook around him as Lopes tries to make him carry their body weight. Ige forces Lopes to slide off his back, and he lowers himself down to the guard to bust Lopes in the chops with fierce punches. Lopes ties him up with a closed guard to ride out the clock, and Ige sits up to nail him with a stiff right. Ige postures up to deliver a single elbow on the cheek, and he rains two more down and smiles. Ige drops right hands on the midsection, and he lets loose with a number of pounding left hands. Ige is pushed up to his feet from Lopes’ legs after Lopes gets tagged, and Lopes upkicks him and flusters him until the final horn sounds. No matter the result, these two men should be proud of their performances and simply the fact that the fight happened. History was made tonight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ige (29-28 Lopes)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ige (29-28 Lopes)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ige (29-28 Lopes)
The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Dan Ige via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Cody fades the hype on Diego Lopes and picks Brian Ortega. He argues that Lopes' wins are over lower-level competition (Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini, Sodi Yusuf) and that his takedown defense is poor. Ortega, on the other hand, has fought the elite of the division and has shown improved wrestling, taking down Yair Rodriguez, Alexander Volkanovski, and Max Holloway. Cody believes Ortega's experience, durability, and Jiu-Jitsu will neutralize Lopes' grappling, and that Ortega has multiple paths to victory including submission or decision.
Daniel is leaning towards Ortega (Ige) by decision, citing Ortega's durability, offensive wrestling improvements, and experience against top competition. He notes that Lopes has a poor record when fights go to decision (2-4) and that Ortega is 5-1 in decisions with the only loss to Volkanovski. He expects Ortega to weather early adversity and accumulate top control.
Daniel Vreeland picks Brian Ortega as the underdog, arguing that people are writing him off too soon. He notes that Ortega was a whisper away from submitting Alexander Volkanovski, and his grappling is at another level. Vreeland believes Ortega can hold his own on the feet and will get the better of scrambles. He compares this fight to Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez, where Ortega proved doubters wrong. He also questions whether Diego Lopes is as good as Yair Rodriguez.
Jeff Fox picks Diego Lopes, stating he is far more explosive on the feet, which is a concern for Ortega. He acknowledges Ortega's grappling is elite but notes that the Volkanovski fight was almost four years ago. Fox prefers the younger fighter who has been mowing through people and sees good value in the line. He admits it's a close matchup but leans Lopes.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host gives a slight lean to Diego Lopes, citing his momentum, confidence, and striking improvements. He believes Lopes has good enough defensive jiu-jitsu to avoid Ortega's submissions and should have a striking advantage. He notes Ortega has more high-level experience but thinks Lopes' style is perfect to beat Ortega. He mentions the line has moved from -160 to -125 and says he might bet if Lopes becomes the underdog.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that the market loves Lopes but that Ortega has never been finished and has fought the best. He points out that Lopes has low striking volume and questionable takedown defense, while Ortega has a proven ability to win decisions or submissions. Paul also mentions that Ortega's experience against top competition gives him a clear edge, and that Lopes' hype is based on flashy finishes over lesser opponents.
The Guru picks Diego Lopes over Brian Ortega (note: transcript says Ortega vs Lopes, but fight card lists Lopes vs Ige; likely a mistake in transcript). He is confident in Lopes, citing his dangerous striking and submission skills. He believes Lopes will be aggressive from the start, while Ortega may be hesitant. He notes Lopes' short-notice advantage and year-round training. He predicts a first-round finish for Lopes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 1 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Andre Fili | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 1 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Andre Fili | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 11 of 19 | 57% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Andre Fili | 8 of 33 | 24% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 11 of 19 | 57% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Andre Fili | 8 of 33 | 24% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo calls this a 50-50 fight. Dan Ige is a fantastic kickboxer with good BJJ and underrated wrestling, having defended 10 takedowns from Bryce Mitchell. Andre Fili has all the tools but a questionable chin and tends to brawl. Angelo thinks if Fili wrestles, he can win, but expects him to brawl, favoring Ige. He suggests this is a great live bet fight.
Big Brady picks Dan Ige to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Ige is durable (never knocked out or submitted), hits hard, and has fought top competition, while Fili has been knocked out multiple times and has questionable striking defense. He expects a stand-up fight where Ige's power and durability prevail, dropping and finishing Fili.
Cody picks Ige, expecting a close decision. He notes Ige's durability and power, while Fili has been knocked out before. He thinks the fight will likely go to decision, with Ige's superior hand speed and pressure being key. Cody also mentions the Apex environment may favor Ige's impactful strikes. He suggests a prop on Ige by decision or the over 2.5 rounds.
Ige has crisp boxing, high fight IQ, and a great game plan. He should be able to counter Fili's unorthodox striking and potentially mix in grappling to open up his boxing. Fili has a reach advantage but struggles to land big shots against disciplined strikers. Ige's experience and reliability should lead to a decision victory.
Paul also picks Ige, noting Fili's experience but questioning if his wrestling is enough to neutralize Ige. He thinks Ige's chin and power are key, and that Fili's volume may not be enough. Paul mentions a possible Ige knockout, but leans toward Ige on the moneyline. He also considers a sprinkle on Ige by KO in round 1 at +850.
The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige because he follows game plans well and performs against opponents just outside the rankings. He expects Ige to chop low kicks and work his way inside, finishing Fili in the second round. He notes Ige's wins over Damon Jackson and his competitive fight with Bryce Mitchell.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 23 of 40 | 57% | 37 of 59 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 7:33 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 18 of 55 | 32% | 32 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 20 of 30 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 13 of 23 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 2:30 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 14 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 3 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Mitchell | 23 of 40 | 57% | 13 of 22 | 7 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 29 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 8 |
| Dan Ige | 18 of 55 | 32% | 13 of 47 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Mitchell | 14 of 22 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 6 |
| Dan Ige | 10 of 25 | 40% | 7 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bryce Mitchell | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 6 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 8 of 26 | 30% | 6 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Bryce Mitchell | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Dan Ige | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mitchell (-205), Ige (+170)
Round 1
In the co-headliner spot, fans will be treated to a striker vs. grappler affair, at least on paper. Longing to take this fight to the ground, Mitchell (15-1, 6-1 UFC) would like nothing more than to hand Ige (17-6, 9-5 UFC) his first career submission defeat. On the other hand, the Hawaiian is hunting for his third win in a row, which would continue his run up the logjammed featherweight division. Referee Mark Smith draws the charge for this big fight, and he looks confused when Mitchell grabs a bible out of his cornerman’s hand and holds it up while screaming “Freedom.” When that odd moment ends, Smith clocks them in. There is no glove touch, as Mitchell is on a mission. Ige jabs to start the fight, and he counters a kick from Mitchell with a hard right hook. Mitchell wears it well and backs off when Ige chases after him to land a few punches. Mitchell pushes off with a side kick, and Ige misses a hook by a matter of inches. Ige clips “Thug Nasty” with a right hand, and Mitchell leaps at him to go after a double. Ige pushes him over, lands a punch that slips open a cut on Mitchell’s left cheek, and backs off. Ige is calm as a cucumber as he measures his opponent, and his third hook connects on the chin. Mitchell charges for a takedown attempt, and Ige defends the first try but gets tossed down on the second effort. Ige works his way back up and separates without much concern, and he blitzes with a winging right hook that just misses. Ige doubles up on a jab, and he counters a low kick with a left hook. As Mitchell recoils from the blow, his kick slaps into Ige’s cup. Ige is good to go, and Mitchell offers an apology from the accidental foul. Mitchell runs at Ige, where he does not get the takedown but does push Ige to the wall. The Hawaiian defends until he doesn’t, as Mitchell uses a body lock to put Ige on his back. “Thug Nasty” lands in full mount, and Ige defends himself from any ground strikes. Mitchell sets up an arm-triangle choke, and Ige bucks to stop it. Ige turns to his side, swaying around to dodge all but a pair of punches. The round ends with Mitchell riding on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Round 2
Ige starts off the round flicking out several jabs, looking for his range so he can follow one with an overhand right. Mitchell pushes off with a front kick, and Ige belts him in the face with a left and a devastating right. Mitchell grimaces in pain and shoots in for a double, only to get turned around and elbows in the side of the head a few times. Ige stands him up, and the two jockey for position in the clinch. The Hawaiian slips away to restart in striking range, and damage has developed above and below Mitchell’s right eye. Ige loops a big hook on the busted eye, which splits open an enormous cut and draws some swelling. Smith calls time and brings in the doctor, but she clears Mitchell in a few seconds when Mitchell states he can see. When they resume, Mitchell tries for a naked takedown, and Ige tackles him over and lands on top. As Mitchell defends with rubber guard, Ige thinks better of the situation and stands back up. Mitchell follows after him, and he dives down after an ankle. Ige hops out of the way, parries a front kick and lands a right hand on the temple. Ige walks into a short left hand, and Mitchell times Ige’s blitz to take him off his feet and land right in mount. Ige keeps moving, turning to a side and then his knee. Mitchell follows him and takes his back with Ige leaning on the fence on his knees. “Thug Nasty” wrenches his right arm on the chin of his opponent, and he gets both hooks in and tries to flatten the Hawaiian out. Ige looks to slide out the back door, and Mitchell does not let him off the hook as he turns over to attack an arm-triangle choke. Ige defends it as Mitchell has him mounted, punching Mitchell in the side a few times. Mitchell lets go with the choke, and Ige bucks as the round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Round 3
Mitchell is once more cleared to keep fighting, even with the swollen eye and the serious cut above it. Ige peppers that damaged eye immediately when the last round kicks off, with a number of jabs. Mitchell replies with a body kick, and he runs at Ige to grab hold of a single. Ige gets taken down, but he is quick to power back to his feet even with Mitchell clinging to him. Ige turns Mitchell over, until Mitchell slides his legs around to keep the back take intact. Mitchell locks down a body triangle, and he switches it to the other side when Ige tries to break it. Ige slowly, calmly looks to spin in this position, and Mitchell hangs on without offering any offense of his own. When Ige is about to escape, Mitchell slithers over to take mount while Ige is on his back. Ige still manages to get upright, and Mitchell stays tight to him like a cheap suit. Ige leans up against the fence and shakes Mitchell with all his might to get some space. Mitchell elects to lift Ige completely off the ground to throw him down, and Ige lands and switches things around to turn Mitchell to his seat. Mitchell grips both of his hands on Ige’s left arm for a possible armlock, and Ige keeps tight from on top. Ige sits up to lean on Mitchell, and he moves into mount with 10 seconds to spare. Ige is unable to land anything until the horn sounds, and this fight could go either way depending on how the second round is scored.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Ige)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Ige)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Ige)
The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Dan Ige via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Mitchell but with very low confidence. He notes Mitchell's wrestling is dominant and his control is phenomenal, but his personal life is a mess and Dan Ige is a tough, experienced opponent. He is staying away from betting this fight.
Big Brady picks Dan Ige as an underdog, expecting a decision win. He analyzes Ige's past fights against wrestlers (Evalov, Korean Zombie, Bektich) and notes Ige was not controlled for long periods. He believes if Ige keeps the fight standing for at least half the fight, his striking advantage will win rounds. He thinks it could be a split decision based on damage vs control.
Cody picks Bryce Mitchell by decision, citing Mitchell's superior wrestling and physicality. He notes Ige's poor takedown defense (58% in UFC) and that Mitchell has dominated similar opponents. He acknowledges Ige's durability and power but believes Mitchell's game plan of takedowns and control will prevail.
Daniel thinks Mitchell's price is too high at -200 and sees value in Ige as a dog. He notes Ige's confidence is back after two wins, he's physical, and has never been submitted. He questions Mitchell's focus after a bad knockout and personal issues, and points out Mitchell's low striking output and reliance on takedowns. He believes Ige can win a split decision if he avoids extended grappling, and likes the plus money.
Lucrative James sees value on Ige at plus 170, noting Ige's power and takedown defense when fresh. He questions Mitchell's mindset after a loss and possible retirement talk. However, he acknowledges Mitchell could dominate on the ground. He considers a small shot on Ige but is not fully committed.
The host picks Dan Ige as a plus 180 underdog, citing Ige's takedown defense and BJJ black belt to neutralize Mitchell's grappling. He expects Ige to use his crisp boxing to draw out desperation takedowns and angle off, accruing damage on the feet. He notes Mitchell's striking is empty and only sets up takedowns, and that Ige's experience against better grapplers (like Movsar Evloev) prepares him for this.
Paul also picks Mitchell by decision, despite acknowledging Ige's live underdog potential due to Mitchell's injuries and personal issues. He believes Mitchell's takedown entries are sharp and that he will stick to his wrestling game plan. He mentions Ige's durability but thinks Mitchell's wrestling will be the difference.
The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell, believing his grappling will be the difference. He notes Mitchell's poor stand-up but excellent wrestling, and thinks he can take down Dan Ige, who struggled with Damon Jackson's takedown threat. He acknowledges Ige's wrestling at Team Alpha Male but believes Mitchell's positional grappling is superior. He mentions potential value on Ige by KO if Mitchell is distracted by personal issues, but expects a composed Mitchell to outwrestle Ige.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 1 | 88 of 184 | 47% | 88 of 184 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 74 of 195 | 37% | 74 of 195 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 0 | 14 of 45 | 31% | 14 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 12 of 44 | 27% | 12 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dan Ige | 1 | 41 of 78 | 52% | 41 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 30 of 69 | 43% | 30 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Dan Ige | 0 | 33 of 61 | 54% | 33 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Nate Landwehr | 0 | 32 of 82 | 39% | 32 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 88 of 184 | 47% | 61 of 143 | 19 of 31 | 8 of 10 | 78 of 169 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 7 |
| Nate Landwehr | 74 of 195 | 37% | 54 of 161 | 13 of 24 | 7 of 10 | 55 of 168 | 18 of 24 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 14 of 45 | 31% | 8 of 34 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 14 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Landwehr | 12 of 44 | 27% | 9 of 33 | 1 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 9 of 40 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dan Ige | 41 of 78 | 52% | 28 of 59 | 10 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 68 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 7 |
| Nate Landwehr | 30 of 69 | 43% | 20 of 57 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 59 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 3 | |
| 3 | Dan Ige | 33 of 61 | 54% | 25 of 50 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 30 of 56 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Landwehr | 32 of 82 | 39% | 25 of 71 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 69 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dan Ige, but is cautious about betting. He acknowledges Ige is the better fighter skill-for-skill, but Nate Landwehr's relentless pressure and unpredictability could cause problems. He compares it to the Jaime Malarkey situation where a favorite was put in parlays and lost. He will keep Ige out of parlays and not bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Nate Landwehr to win a close decision. He notes that Landwehr is higher volume and can mix in takedowns, while Ige is more skilled but lower volume. Both are tough, but Landwehr's pace and wrestling could edge rounds. He expects a back-and-forth war and thinks Landwehr's activity will earn him the nod.
Cody picks Dan Ige by knockout, citing Ige's durability (Hawaiians don't get knocked out) and power advantage. He notes that Landwehr can get wobbled, as seen in the Julian Erosa fight. He believes Ige's quick hands and combinations will be too much for Landwehr, who tends to brawl recklessly. He took Ige by KO at +205, expecting a finish in round 2.
Connor picks Ige, emphasizing his technical improvement and durability. He notes that Ige has a great chin and has weathered shots from big punchers. He believes Ige's counter-punching and takedown ability will capitalize on Landwehr's reckless aggression. He also notes that Landwehr is not a technical fighter and often leaves himself open.
Daniel Levi picks Dan Ige, citing Ige's crisp boxing and power, and noting that Nate Landwehr has poor striking defense and gets chinned in almost every fight. He references that Korean Zombie said Ige was the hardest hitter he ever fought. He believes Ige will knock Landwehr out, especially given Landwehr's tendency to get tagged up early. He mentions that if Landwehr survives the early onslaught, he could take over late, but he sees Ige as the cleaner, more experienced fighter.
James picks Dan Ige to win, either by knockout in round one or by decision. He believes Ige is a level above Landwehr in MMA, with sharper boxing and heavier hands. Landwehr is a brawler who gets hit often and has been knocked out before. James thinks Ige's veteran savvy will prevent him from being dragged into a wild war, and that Ige will land the cleaner, more damaging shots. He notes Ige is four years younger and has faced better competition.
Ige's tight boxing and counter-striking should exploit Landwehr's wild aggression. Landwehr has durability concerns and has been knocked out before. Ige's power and accuracy should find a finish, likely in the second round. Landwehr could win if he overwhelms Ige with output and takedowns, but Ige's well-rounded game gives him the edge.
Paul picks Dan Ige, emphasizing Ige's endless cardio, speed, and experience against elite competition. He notes that Landwehr's wild brawling style leaves him open, and Ige's quick hand speed and combinations will clip him. He believes Landwehr's takedown threat is minimal because Landwehr prefers to stand and brawl. He expects Ige to win by decision or knockout, but his gut says knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige despite being a fan of Nate Landwehr, citing Ige's knockout power and Landwehr's tendency to get hit with his chin up. He notes Ige has finished fighters like Damon Jackson and Gavin Tucker, while Landwehr has been caught before. He predicts a late first-round KO for Ige, though he hopes Landwehr wins.
Zane picks Ige, noting that Landwehr's style is to build momentum without a foundation, which can be exploited by a disciplined fighter like Ige. He believes Ige will have many opportunities to counter Landwehr's wild attacks and that Ige's takedowns will be effective. He also notes that Landwehr is not as fast as Ige.
Andre Fili - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 0 | 62 of 141 | 43% | 70 of 154 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 0:59 |
| Jose Delgado | 0 | 94 of 169 | 55% | 103 of 179 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 19 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Jose Delgado | 0 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 26 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 0 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 19 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:11 |
| Jose Delgado | 0 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 34 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 0 | 25 of 63 | 39% | 32 of 74 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Jose Delgado | 0 | 41 of 61 | 67% | 43 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 62 of 141 | 43% | 46 of 121 | 11 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 61 of 139 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Jose Delgado | 94 of 169 | 55% | 37 of 99 | 34 of 47 | 23 of 23 | 83 of 153 | 9 of 14 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 19 of 39 | 48% | 15 of 32 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Delgado | 23 of 46 | 50% | 7 of 26 | 7 of 11 | 9 of 9 | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 18 of 39 | 46% | 16 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Delgado | 30 of 62 | 48% | 9 of 35 | 15 of 21 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 49 | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 25 of 63 | 39% | 15 of 53 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Jose Delgado | 41 of 61 | 67% | 21 of 38 | 12 of 15 | 8 of 8 | 38 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jose Delgado, praising his spectacular striking and talent. He acknowledges Delgado's takedown defense issues but dismisses them because 'Las Vegas doesn't care about wrestling.' He notes that Andre Fili has been wrestling more lately but chooses not to warn viewers, implying that wrestling won't be scored heavily.
Big Brady picks Jose Delgado to win by first-round knockout. He loves Delgado's power and aggression, and criticizes Fili's chin and striking defense (51%). He believes Delgado will come forward with reckless abandon and knock Fili out early, calling it the best fight on the card.
Cody picks Delgado confidently, citing his knockout power and improved cardio. He notes Fili's path is wrestling, but Delgado's knees and takedown defense are deterrents. He expects Delgado to catch Fili eventually.
Connor picks Delgado, agreeing that Fili will get caught taking pictures. He notes Delgado's flow state striking and that Fili's defensive habits make him vulnerable to being timed.
James picks Rolando Delgado to win by first-round knockout. He believes Delgado's dynamic striking, speed, and power will be too much for the older Fili, who has been knocked out early in recent fights. He notes that if Delgado doesn't finish early, Fili can compete over three rounds, but his prediction is a round one stoppage.
The host picks Delgado to win by knockout, citing his power and speed. He believes Delgado's striking will be too much for Fili, who is inconsistent and aging. However, he is hesitant about the high price and would prefer a line closer to -185. He suggests looking at the KO prop if it offers value.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Delgado's power and the old guard being replaced. He thinks Fili's wrestling path is possible but Delgado is working on it. He expects Delgado to win.
The Guru picks Jose Delgado, citing his finishing ability and size. He thinks Fili is finishable and may switch off in clinch exchanges, where Delgado can land elbows or knees. He predicts a nasty finish, noting Delgado's previous wins over Connor Matthews and Destroyer.
Zane picks Delgado, citing his fluid combination punching and ability to catch Fili when he gets predictable. He notes Fili tends to get finished when facing dynamic finishers, and Delgado is a natural puncher.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 0 | 64 of 182 | 35% | 74 of 193 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 83 of 174 | 47% | 95 of 190 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 0 | 22 of 63 | 34% | 27 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 29 of 64 | 45% | 29 of 66 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 0 | 23 of 69 | 33% | 23 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 29 of 56 | 51% | 30 of 57 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 24 of 56 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 36 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 64 of 182 | 35% | 52 of 164 | 6 of 10 | 6 of 8 | 62 of 179 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 83 of 174 | 47% | 49 of 130 | 8 of 13 | 26 of 31 | 69 of 157 | 13 of 16 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 22 of 63 | 34% | 19 of 56 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 22 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 29 of 64 | 45% | 13 of 43 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 15 | 28 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 23 of 69 | 33% | 18 of 62 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 29 of 56 | 51% | 17 of 40 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 11 | 27 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 19 of 50 | 38% | 15 of 46 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 25 of 54 | 46% | 19 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 40 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-250); Fili (+200)
Round 1
With eight years separating the two, this featherweight contest could be considered one of the “passing of the torch” variety. Fili (24-12, 1 NC; 12-11, 1 NC UFC), 35, needs a win badly, as he has alternated them with defeats for his seven outings and is a loss away from a .500 UFC record. Rodriguez (12-3, 5-3 UFC) is a bit above the midpoint line, but he can scarcely afford coming up short as well given that he has dropped two of three. Something’s gotta give, and referee Mike Beltran will be there for it every step of the way. The 145ers touch ‘em up.
Rodriguez says hello with a long one-two, and Fili gets right behind jabbing and low kicks. Rodriguez gets in his face and busts Fili in the chops with a few punches, and a second combination backs Fili off. Fili replies with a crisp right hand over the top, but Rodriguez does not retreat for long and continue to pursue the taller man. Fili uses his range to keep Rodriguez at bay, coming up missing with a head kick and wiping his nose after. Fili keeps his jab going, and he reddens the nose of the younger man and kicks him under the armpit to boot. Rodriguez gets right in Fili’s face and punches him, and Fili changes stances and re-enters the pocket. Both men lob big punches at one another, with Fili clipping “CeeRod” with a few left hands.
Fili gives chase and wings a head kick, and Rodriguez shakes out the cobwebs and re-engages. Fili snaps out his powerful jab, and some damage is showing on Rodriguez’ face on several places. Fili styles on Rodriguez with his jab and short hook, staying out of the range of the biggest power. Fili’s jab is his best weapon, breaking up Rodriguez attacks. Rodriguez catches a body kick and rushes forward to take the vet down, hurling him to the mat like a sack of potatoes with 15 seconds to spare. Rodriguez rides out the remainder of the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Round 2
Both fighters get right back to business when the second round kicks off, as Fili opens up with his jab to get going with high kicks. Rodriguez throws back and ducks down to grab hold of a single, and when that fails, he spins with an elbow that goes wide. Rodriguez reaches his man with a head kick, and Fili takes it cleanly without flinching. Rodriguez stomps at the front leg, and when he comes out swinging, Fili is there to chew him up with jabs and calf kicks. Rodriguez sits down on a hard right hand, and his low kick after further gets Fili’s attention. Fili kicks his foe in the front leg, which is welding up and turning colors fast. Rodriguez wades in to brawl, and Fili meets him with his fists until Rodriguez gloms onto him and looks for a body lock.
Fili escapes to reset, and they bang it out for a few seconds, with Rodriguez nodding after taking heavy blows and getting his nose busted open. Rodriguez does land his own power punches, but Fili is more fluid and appears to be putting out a higher volume. Rodriguez swarms forward and misses the mark, allowing Fili to jack him in the jaw with a pair of straight punches. Fili chains a jab into a leg kick that freezes Rodriguez for a second, and “CeeRod” gathers his thoughts and returns to his own leg-based assault. Fili probes and prods with effective jabs, forcing blood to smear on the younger fighter’s visage. Fili clubs Rodriguez with a left hook, and he takes a jab to put two punches on the cheeks. Fili swaps stances and shoots for a takedown, with Rodriguez stonewalling him and kneeing him on the break. Rodriguez goes way wide with a spin, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Round 3
The featherweights bump fists and promptly punch one another square in the face. There are no feelers, with the jabs from both sides coming with some fire behind them. Rodriguez takes one or two and decides to tie the Californian up, where he knees him in the thigh several times while controlling him against the wire. Rodriguez lets loose with some punches before Fili strikes back, and the jab from Fili ends the exchange as they both gather steam for a second. Rodriguez leaps at Fili, and Fili lets him land so he can tee off on him with fast fists. Fili times a picture-perfect takedown to scoop “CeeRod” off his feet, putting the younger man down to the floor. Rodriguez scrambles, and Fili gladly hangs onto him from behind while looking for trips. Fili lifts Rodriguez up and slams him down with emphasis, although Rodriguez is still with it after bouncing his melon off the floor. Rodriguez scrambles well, getting to his knees in a hurry, and he spins out to split.
Rodriguez walks Fili down, looping punches at him that set up a head kick. Fili pecks with repetitive, painful jabs, and Rodriguez has no answer to them but tries to counter with a wheel kick that is so far away, Fili could have taken a picture of it on a Polaroid and developed it by the time Rodriguez was good to go again. Rodriguez gets mad, and he starts swinging up close and personal. Fili fires back with a vengeance, only to get clipped with a left hand that changes his course. “Touchy” grabs Rodriguez and bowls him over to the mat, landing some ground-and-pound until Rodriguez explodes to his knees. Fili tries a mat return with Rodriguez leaned up against the wire, and Rodriguez breaks off and just misses a slashing elbow. Fili’s jab is turning Rodriguez’ face to hamburger, and Rodriguez just nods at him looking for more. Rodriguez walks Fili down, briefly clinching only to let go so he can let his hands go. Fili intercepts two spinning moves, with Rodriguez tries to initiate a crazy final brawl but not getting it from the veteran. Fili ends the match by landing some shots, and when the dust settles, Fili plants a kiss on the defeated man’s forehead.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)
The Official Result
Andre Fili def. Christian Rodriguez via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
Angelo leans Andre Fili, believing he is the more skilled fighter with better speed and cleaner striking. He notes Christian Rodriguez is a prospect killer but struggles against experienced, well-rounded fighters. However, Fili is unreliable and his chin is questionable. Angelo may change his pick later in the week.
Big Brady picks Christian Rodriguez, noting Andre Fili's recent decline and tendency to get submitted. He highlights Rodriguez's guillotine threat and believes he can snatch a neck if Fili shoots for takedowns. Brady predicts a second-round submission for Rodriguez.
Connor picks Fili because Rodriguez struggles against veterans who don't run into his defensive wall. He notes that Fili will stay at range, use jabs and high kicks, and not get drawn into a wrestling match. Connor points out that Rodriguez has shown an inability to adjust when his plan A fails, as seen against Melquizael Costa. He acknowledges Fili's tendency for catastrophic errors but believes Rodriguez won't capitalize consistently.
The host is a big C-rod fan but thinks he is being overappreciated, making him a chalky favorite. He notes a size advantage for Rodriguez fighting at 145 when he should be at 135, which gives some concern, but believes it's a matter of time before Rodriguez finds a submission opportunity and forces the tap.
The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili as an underdog, despite acknowledging Christian Rodriguez should win. He believes Fili's size, reach, and veteran savvy will be too much, and that Rodriguez can't finish him. He predicts a close 29-28 decision win for Fili.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Rodriguez's game is built for opponents who make mistakes, but Fili is a veteran who won't just run into his defense. He highlights that Fili's wrestling is tough to out-grapple and that Rodriguez hasn't proven he can beat a veteran like Fili. Zane is concerned about Fili's age and recent wins over older fighters, but still sees Rodriguez as unproven at this level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 7 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Melquizael Costa | 0 | 27 of 56 | 48% | 27 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 7 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Melquizael Costa | 0 | 27 of 56 | 48% | 27 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 7 of 24 | 29% | 4 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Melquizael Costa | 27 of 56 | 48% | 3 of 25 | 10 of 13 | 14 of 18 | 26 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 7 of 24 | 29% | 4 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Melquizael Costa | 27 of 56 | 48% | 3 of 25 | 10 of 13 | 14 of 18 | 26 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
A veritable chasm of UFC-level experience separates the next two featherweights, with grizzled Team Alpha Male product Fili (24-11, 1 NC; 12-10, 1 NC UFC) looking to hold the line and remind folks he is still very much a factor. Like Fili, Costa’s (21-7, 2-2 UFC) tenure thus far has been somewhat inconsistent but fairly violent. Referee Jeff Hoiby draws the charge between the two, and the local man Fili has no time for a glove touch as he wants to get going immediately. Fili chases his foe around the cage, looking for his jab. Costa backs him off briefly with a pair of high kicks, and he doubles up on leg kicks as well. Fili walks through everything pitched at him to sling leather, including a right left hand that zips through his guard. “Let’s go Fili” chants boom through the building, and they both fire off head kicks. Fili’s gets his foe’s attention, with Costa smiling at him. They decide to throw caution to the wind for a moment and brawl with no interest in defense, and they tag one another cleanly but do not budge. Costa backs off and fires off a wheel kick, and he settles himself to chop at the Washington-based fighter’s knee with oblique kicks. Costa rips a kick to the ribs as Fili is marching ever forward, and he narrowly evades getting his chin checked with a low kick but still walks into a left hook. Fili blocks a high kick but cannot stop a body kick, and he plods forward, energized by “USA” chants. Fili whiffs on a head kick, unable to lock his foe down, and he brushes his shoulder when Costa misses as well. Fili blocks a kick and hurls one right back, and Costa breathes a sight of relief and strikes back with a high kick. Fili motions that he protected himself from it, and Costa stays on his bike prodding with oblique kicks. Fili connects with a heavy body kick, dodges one that comes back and makes a matador motion. Fili takes a kick and shoots in for a takedown, and when he hits it,
Costa wraps up a guillotine choke and wrenches with all his might. The Brazilian clings to the choke, which is not going anywhere as he has it tight as a drum with his right leg wrapped around Fili’s waist. Fili is fine until suddenly he is not, and he frantically taps out.
The stunned audience is silenced in a second, as the hometown fighter surrenders from the submission and walks off disappointed that he got caught. Meanwhile, Costa has just earned the biggest win of his career, and he goes off to celebrate with teammate Joanderson Brito who previously put Fili away in the first round.
The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Andre Fili R1 4:30 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Big Brady picks the underdog Melquizael Costa, noting that Andre Fili's durability is declining after many wars, and he was dropped and knocked out recently. He thinks Costa is younger, has more tools on the feet with hard kicks to head, legs, and body, and has solid grappling with seven takedowns in his last three fights. He expects a close fight going to decision, with Costa winning a close decision.
The host acknowledges the fight is close as odds indicate, but believes Fili's strength of schedule, experience, and unorthodox striking will shut down Costa's grappling. He expects Fili to win on the scorecards, possibly by split decision.
The Guru hesitantly picks Fili, noting he never likes picking him but sees Costa as getting 'fraud checked'. He values Fili's win over Cub Swanson and thinks Costa's loss to Thiago Moisés is a bad look. He expects Fili to mix in grappling in the second and third rounds and win a close decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 0 | 62 of 111 | 55% | 90 of 140 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 67 of 147 | 45% | 70 of 151 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 0 | 20 of 31 | 64% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 18 of 35 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:27 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 0 | 30 of 51 | 58% | 48 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 31 of 70 | 44% | 33 of 73 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 62 of 111 | 55% | 43 of 86 | 7 of 11 | 12 of 14 | 53 of 101 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 67 of 147 | 45% | 49 of 118 | 13 of 22 | 5 of 7 | 52 of 126 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 20 of 31 | 64% | 9 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 9 | 18 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 18 of 42 | 42% | 12 of 31 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 36 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 12 of 29 | 41% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 18 of 35 | 51% | 14 of 29 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 30 of 51 | 58% | 23 of 41 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 44 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 31 of 70 | 44% | 23 of 58 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 61 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Fili but is not confident due to his recent knockout losses. He notes that Fili is younger and faster, but his chin is questionable. Cody believes Fili's volume and wrestling could give him an edge, but acknowledges that Swanson is a fan favorite who often gets close decisions. He warns that Fili needs to finish Swanson to avoid a controversial decision loss.
Daniel is picking Swanson as a plus 210 underdog, citing Swanson's path to victory via knockout and his strong performance against Hakim Dawodu at similar odds. He notes that Fili is hot and cold and can be chinned. He envisions a retirement moment for Swanson where he knocks out Fili and puts his gloves down in the Octagon.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host picks Fili to win on the scorecards, but criticizes the -260 line as too high, saying Fili should be closer to -150 or -180. He expects a competitive striking battle that goes to decision, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds at -110. He notes Swanson is a live underdog at +210.
Paul picks Swanson, citing his experience and durability. He notes that Swanson has a history of winning close decisions and that Fili has been knocked out recently. Paul believes Swanson's volume and toughness will be key, and that he can win a decision or even catch Fili with a knockout. He also mentions that Swanson is a fan favorite, which may help in a close fight.
The Guru picks Andre Fili over Cub Swanson. He believes Fili is bigger, stronger, and more explosive at this stage. He notes Swanson's age (40) and size disadvantage. He likes Fili's low kicks and thinks he can finish Swanson by TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 1 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Andre Fili | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 1 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Andre Fili | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 11 of 19 | 57% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Andre Fili | 8 of 33 | 24% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 11 of 19 | 57% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Andre Fili | 8 of 33 | 24% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo calls this a 50-50 fight. Dan Ige is a fantastic kickboxer with good BJJ and underrated wrestling, having defended 10 takedowns from Bryce Mitchell. Andre Fili has all the tools but a questionable chin and tends to brawl. Angelo thinks if Fili wrestles, he can win, but expects him to brawl, favoring Ige. He suggests this is a great live bet fight.
Big Brady picks Dan Ige to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Ige is durable (never knocked out or submitted), hits hard, and has fought top competition, while Fili has been knocked out multiple times and has questionable striking defense. He expects a stand-up fight where Ige's power and durability prevail, dropping and finishing Fili.
Cody picks Ige, expecting a close decision. He notes Ige's durability and power, while Fili has been knocked out before. He thinks the fight will likely go to decision, with Ige's superior hand speed and pressure being key. Cody also mentions the Apex environment may favor Ige's impactful strikes. He suggests a prop on Ige by decision or the over 2.5 rounds.
Ige has crisp boxing, high fight IQ, and a great game plan. He should be able to counter Fili's unorthodox striking and potentially mix in grappling to open up his boxing. Fili has a reach advantage but struggles to land big shots against disciplined strikers. Ige's experience and reliability should lead to a decision victory.
Paul also picks Ige, noting Fili's experience but questioning if his wrestling is enough to neutralize Ige. He thinks Ige's chin and power are key, and that Fili's volume may not be enough. Paul mentions a possible Ige knockout, but leans toward Ige on the moneyline. He also considers a sprinkle on Ige by KO in round 1 at +850.
The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige because he follows game plans well and performs against opponents just outside the rankings. He expects Ige to chop low kicks and work his way inside, finishing Fili in the second round. He notes Ige's wins over Damon Jackson and his competitive fight with Bryce Mitchell.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 20 of 36 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 10 of 25 | 40% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 13 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 20 of 36 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 10 of 25 | 40% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 13 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lucas Almeida as an underdog, citing his real power and killer instinct. He acknowledges Fili's talent but distrusts his chin and lack of wrestling usage. He does not bet because both fighters are unreliable.
Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win by second-round KO, despite acknowledging Fili's wrestling path. He notes Fili hasn't wrestled much recently and isn't a dominant grappler like Pat Sabatini, so he expects the fight to stay standing. Brady highlights Almeida's 100% finish rate and power, while Fili has been finished 5 times and has a questionable chin. He believes Almeida will land a knockout as an underdog.
Cody picks Fili, arguing that Almeida is hittable and walks in a straight line. He notes that Fili has good footwork, a jab, and can mix in wrestling. Cody believes Fili will outpoint Almeida by striking and using takedowns to secure rounds. He expects a decision win for Fili, as Almeida's takedown defense is suspect and Fili is the more well-rounded fighter.
Jeff Fox picks Lucas Almeida as his dog, explaining that Almeida is a better striker and is fighting a guy on a skid. He thinks Almeida is a worthy gamble at plus 145.
Lucrative James picks Lucas Almeida as the value side. He believes Andre Fili has clear deficiencies in striking defense and chin, getting hurt in almost every fight. He thinks Fili's path is via wrestling, but Fili often chooses to stand and bang. Almeida hits hard, has good durability, and Fili's tendency to get cracked makes Almeida the play at underdog odds.
The host leans toward Fili but is not confident due to the chalk. He believes Fili's experience and grappling advantage should be the difference, as he can take Almeida down and grind out a decision. However, he warns that if Fili chooses to strike, he could get knocked out. He expects Fili to shoot multiple takedowns and win a decision, avoiding his first losing streak in the UFC.
Paul picks Fili, agreeing that Fili is the more experienced and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Fili has faced much tougher competition and has multiple paths to victory. Paul believes Fili's wrestling and striking will be too much for Almeida, who is a banger but lacks defensive skills. He expects Fili to win by decision or potentially by submission.
The Guru picks Andre Fili over Lucas Almeida, noting Fili has looked good even in losses and has a reach and range advantage. He believes Almeida lacks the KO power to finish Fili and that Fili's wrestling will be a factor. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Wood | 1 | 84 of 148 | 56% | 108 of 174 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Andre Fili | 1 | 58 of 151 | 38% | 76 of 179 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathaniel Wood | 1 | 37 of 69 | 53% | 37 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Andre Fili | 0 | 17 of 49 | 34% | 20 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 34 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Andre Fili | 1 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 32 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:55 | |
| 3 | Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 37 of 64 | 57% | 37 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andre Fili | 0 | 24 of 68 | 35% | 24 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Wood | 84 of 148 | 56% | 38 of 90 | 10 of 18 | 36 of 40 | 71 of 123 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 25 |
| Andre Fili | 58 of 151 | 38% | 45 of 134 | 7 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 53 of 144 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathaniel Wood | 37 of 69 | 53% | 21 of 48 | 4 of 7 | 12 of 14 | 24 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 25 |
| Andre Fili | 17 of 49 | 34% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nathaniel Wood | 10 of 15 | 66% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andre Fili | 17 of 34 | 50% | 14 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Nathaniel Wood | 37 of 64 | 57% | 13 of 33 | 5 of 10 | 19 of 21 | 37 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andre Fili | 24 of 68 | 35% | 16 of 58 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood, believing a healthy Wood beats an inconsistent Andre Fili. He notes Wood's injury was just a cut, not a knee issue, so he should be fine. He does not bet the moneyline but may explore props because Fili is better than the odds suggest.
Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood by decision, citing hometown advantage and volume striking. He notes Wood is undersized with a reach disadvantage but throws high volume (6.34 sig strikes/min). He thinks Wood can mix in takedowns and that close decisions will favor the London fighter. He admits the line should be closer.
Cody picks Wood based on volume advantage, noting Wood lands over 97 significant strikes in recent fights while Fili's career high is 98. He thinks Wood's wrestling and pressure will overwhelm Fili, and that Wood's chin issues were due to weight cuts at 135. He expects a 30-27 decision.
Daniel made this his first bet of the card, taking Nathaniel Wood at -180 to win 2 units. He highlights Wood's pace and volume advantage, noting Fili has never landed 100 significant strikes in a UFC fight while Wood has exceeded 130 multiple times. He believes Wood's calf kicks and pressure will neutralize Fili's reach, and that Wood's improved chin at featherweight (no longer cutting to bantamweight) is a key factor. He acknowledges the threat of Fili's head kick but trusts Wood's game plan to close distance and outwork him.
James picks Nathaniel Wood to win, calling this a potential coming-out party for him. He notes that Wood has deserved a big win and that Fili doesn't always rise to the occasion. He mentions that Wood is fighting in his hometown of London and that he thinks Wood will rise to the occasion. James acknowledges his bias as he is friendly with Wood but still believes in his skills.
The host picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his improved cardio at featherweight, patient striking, and ground game. He believes Wood's overall game will be too much for Fili, who struggles against higher competition. He predicts a decision win for Wood.
Paul agrees with Cody on volume, noting Fili lacks knockout power and has durability issues. He thinks Wood's wrestling advantage and pace will be key. He also likes Wood by decision and the over on significant strikes.
The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood, calling it a no-brainer. He praises Wood's leg kicks, noting he may hold the record for most leg kicks landed in a fight. He criticizes Andre Fili's recent decline and skinny legs, and believes Wood's high guard will defend against head kicks. The Guru expects Wood to bust up Fili's lead leg and win by decision or late TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 0 | 59 of 142 | 41% | 67 of 151 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 4:18 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 81 of 170 | 47% | 151 of 246 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 0 | 19 of 56 | 33% | 19 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 30 of 61 | 49% | 31 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 0 | 32 of 68 | 47% | 32 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 41 of 86 | 47% | 46 of 91 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 16 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:49 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 74 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 59 of 142 | 41% | 48 of 125 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 59 of 141 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 81 of 170 | 47% | 38 of 113 | 17 of 27 | 26 of 30 | 80 of 168 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 19 of 56 | 33% | 16 of 51 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 30 of 61 | 49% | 9 of 37 | 9 of 10 | 12 of 14 | 30 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 32 of 68 | 47% | 25 of 61 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 32 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 41 of 86 | 47% | 21 of 59 | 7 of 13 | 13 of 14 | 40 of 84 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 10 of 23 | 43% | 8 of 17 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Algeo as an underdog, citing his pressure, pace, and durability. He notes that Fili is talented but coming off a bad knockout and may be gun-shy. Angelo believes Algeo will push the pace and win a decision. He placed a moneyline bet at +115.
Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by decision, taking the dog. He acknowledges that Andre Fili is the better striker and has fought tougher competition, but Brady favors Algeo's high volume and cardio. He notes that Algeo has poor takedown defense but an excellent get-up game, so Fili likely won't hold him down. Brady expects Algeo to overwhelm Fili with output and win a close decision. He also mentions that Fili's output is low (3.82 significant strikes per minute) and his accuracy is 36%.
Cody agrees, noting Fili's wrestling and clinch work will exploit Algeo's takedown defense. He thinks Fili is smoother on the feet and will win a decision. He also mentions the prize picks line for Fili's significant strikes is 50.5, but he might avoid that due to potential wrestling-heavy game plan.
Daniel Levi picks Bill Algeo at plus 115 odds, placing one unit. He sees this as a coin flip fight and prefers the dog odds. He highlights Algeo's durability, volume, and ability to scramble back to his feet after takedowns. He notes Fili's long UFC career and tendency to have close fights, and thinks Algeo can pull away late with volume. He expects a competitive fight that could go either way.
Jacob picks Fili, believing he is the more talented and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Algeo is tough but lacks knockout power, so Fili can implement his game plan of bouncing in and out and mixing in takedowns. Jacob acknowledges that Fili has lost fights he should win but thinks this is a perfect matchup for him.
This is a 50-50 fight but Fili has more tools, mixing striking with takedowns. Algeo has good BJJ defensively but his takedown defense is a weakness. Fili is fighting with his back against the wall and should put together a full MMA game. Algeo's flashy striking can be dangerous but Fili's veteran experience and wrestling should edge him a decision.
Paul thinks Fili's wrestling advantage will be key, as Algeo has poor takedown defense. He notes Fili looked great against Pineda before the no-contest and that the flash KO loss to Brito is overblown. Paul expects Fili to mix in takedowns and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili by decision. He notes Bill Algeo is on short notice and has a child due soon, which may affect his cardio. He thinks Algeo struggles against well-rounded, durable fighters who can go the distance, like Ricardo Ramos and Ricardo Lamas. He believes Fili has great cardio and won't have to worry about power since Algeo has no power. He expects Fili to win a decision, and advises betting on Fili if he becomes an underdog.
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo calls this a 50-50 fight. Dan Ige is a fantastic kickboxer with good BJJ and underrated wrestling, having defended 10 takedowns from Bryce Mitchell. Andre Fili has all the tools but a questionable chin and tends to brawl. Angelo thinks if Fili wrestles, he can win, but expects him to brawl, favoring Ige. He suggests this is a great live bet fight.
Big Brady picks Dan Ige to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Ige is durable (never knocked out or submitted), hits hard, and has fought top competition, while Fili has been knocked out multiple times and has questionable striking defense. He expects a stand-up fight where Ige's power and durability prevail, dropping and finishing Fili.
Cody picks Ige, expecting a close decision. He notes Ige's durability and power, while Fili has been knocked out before. He thinks the fight will likely go to decision, with Ige's superior hand speed and pressure being key. Cody also mentions the Apex environment may favor Ige's impactful strikes. He suggests a prop on Ige by decision or the over 2.5 rounds.
Ige has crisp boxing, high fight IQ, and a great game plan. He should be able to counter Fili's unorthodox striking and potentially mix in grappling to open up his boxing. Fili has a reach advantage but struggles to land big shots against disciplined strikers. Ige's experience and reliability should lead to a decision victory.
Paul also picks Ige, noting Fili's experience but questioning if his wrestling is enough to neutralize Ige. He thinks Ige's chin and power are key, and that Fili's volume may not be enough. Paul mentions a possible Ige knockout, but leans toward Ige on the moneyline. He also considers a sprinkle on Ige by KO in round 1 at +850.
The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige because he follows game plans well and performs against opponents just outside the rankings. He expects Ige to chop low kicks and work his way inside, finishing Fili in the second round. He notes Ige's wins over Damon Jackson and his competitive fight with Bryce Mitchell.
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