Career Averages - Bogdan Guskov
Career Averages - Zac Pauga
Bogdan Guskov - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 1 | 84 of 149 | 56% | 100 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 80 of 140 | 57% | 98 of 160 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 25 of 52 | 48% | 25 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 25 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 32 of 51 | 62% | 50 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:09 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 | 48 of 84 | 57% | 50 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 27 of 45 | 60% | 27 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 84 of 149 | 56% | 56 of 112 | 11 of 17 | 17 of 20 | 74 of 135 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 11 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 80 of 140 | 57% | 69 of 127 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 10 | 52 of 96 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 44 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 25 of 52 | 48% | 13 of 35 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 11 | 25 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 21 of 44 | 47% | 10 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 11 of 13 | 84% | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 32 of 51 | 62% | 32 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 44 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 48 of 84 | 57% | 36 of 68 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 38 of 70 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 11 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 27 of 45 | 60% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 27 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jan Błachowicz, noting his experience, Polish power, and solid wrestling. He argues that Jan's recent losses are to elite competition and that he arguably won some of them. He compares the two as similar fighters but gives Jan the edge due to his chin holding up at 42. However, he advises against betting on Jan at -145 due to the risk of Guskov's power.
Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz despite his age (42), citing his superior striking, volume, durability, cardio, and grappling. He pokes holes in Guskov's wins, noting they came against lower-level opponents. He expects Błachowicz to win by decision, but acknowledges age is a concern.
Cody picks Jan, trusting his chin and experience. He notes that Jan has fought and nearly beaten top competition like Pereira and Ulberg. He believes Jan's wrestling and submission threat will be factors, and he likes Jan by submission at plus 765. He thinks Guskov's wins are over lower-level opponents.
Connor picks Błachowicz, citing his low kicks and jab as effective tools against Guskov's boxing-heavy style. He notes that Guskov was submitted by Volkan Oezdemir, indicating a vulnerability to wrestling, and Błachowicz has strong top control and submissions. Connor acknowledges that Błachowicz has lost speed and the 'Błachowicz blitz,' but believes his range tools and wrestling will be enough. He doesn't want to watch it but wants Jan to win.
Daniel picks Guskov as a dog, acknowledging Jan's technical edge but fearing Jan's age (42) and recent decline. He thinks Guskov's brawling style and power could catch Jan, who may be nearing a drop-off. He notes Jan's calf kicks and takedowns as threats but believes Guskov's youth and momentum make him a live underdog.
Lucrative James argues that Jan Błachowicz is superior in every facet of MMA—striking, grappling, cardio, and fight IQ. He notes Jan's recent close fights against top competition (Alex Pereira, Carlos Ulberg) and his high-altitude training camp. He believes Guskov's only path to victory is an early knockout, but Jan's durability and experience should carry him to a decision win.
The host acknowledges Guskov's rise but believes he will struggle against the more experienced Błachowicz. Despite Błachowicz's age and recent struggles, the host expects him to mix up his game, land takedowns, and possibly secure a submission.
Paul agrees, highlighting Jan's durability and high-level experience. He notes that Jan has gone the distance with champions and has a well-rounded game. He believes Guskov's competition is weak and that Jan will outwork him. He also mentions Jan's submission ability.
The Guru picks Jan Błachowicz over Bogdan Guskov, citing Błachowicz's experience and technical edge. He notes Błachowicz nearly beat Alex Pereira and has faced top competition. The Guru predicts a clear decision or late TKO.
Zane also picks Błachowicz, emphasizing that Guskov's wins have come against a weak run of fighters and that Krylov's chin is gone. He notes that Błachowicz hasn't been finished and has the wrestling to exploit Guskov's takedown defense. Zane believes Guskov's wild boxing style leaves him open to low kicks and takedowns, and Błachowicz's experience and strength will carry him to a decision or submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 16 of 34 | 47% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 23 of 43 | 53% | 20 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 16 of 34 | 47% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 23 of 43 | 53% | 20 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 17 |
Angelo picks Nikita Krylov, citing his well-rounded skills, high fight IQ, and clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes Bogdan Guskov has power but showed wrestling holes in his last fight. He uses MMA math (Krylov beat Volkan, Volkan beat Guskov) and expects Krylov to wrestle. He will not bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov, citing a significant grappling advantage. He notes Guskov has been outgrappled by lesser fighters like Billy Elekana and Volkan Oezdemir, and believes Krylov will take him down and submit him easily. He worries about Krylov's durability and fight IQ but thinks if he wrestles, he wins. He predicts a first-round submission.
Connor acknowledges Krylov's shaky confidence after the Reyes KO but believes Guskov's style is more manageable. He notes Guskov's poor takedown defense and Krylov's clear path to win via wrestling. He thinks Krylov will test his grappling early and avoid striking exchanges.
This is a perfect matchup for Krylov to utilize his grapple-heavy approach, keep Guskov on his back, grind him out, and clearly win on the scorecards or even lock up a late submission.
The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov, citing his patience, calmness, and ability to eat shots and break opponents. He criticizes Nikita Krylov for returning too soon after a KO loss and being too wild. He predicts an early TKO, possibly in round one or two, with multiple knockdowns.
Zane picks Krylov, noting that Guskov is vulnerable to wrestling and Krylov has the skills to exploit that. He sees the potential for disaster if Krylov hesitates, but believes the path to victory is clear via takedowns and ground control.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 47 of 71 | 66% | 59 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 1:24 |
| Billy Elekana | 0 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 28 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 12 of 17 | 70% | 19 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:44 |
| Billy Elekana | 0 | 8 of 9 | 88% | 16 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 | |
| 2 | Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 35 of 54 | 64% | 40 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Billy Elekana | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Guskov | 47 of 71 | 66% | 39 of 63 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 34 | 11 of 11 | 17 of 26 |
| Billy Elekana | 20 of 28 | 71% | 18 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bogdan Guskov | 12 of 17 | 70% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 14 |
| Billy Elekana | 8 of 9 | 88% | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 | |
| 2 | Bogdan Guskov | 35 of 54 | 64% | 30 of 49 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 31 | 11 of 11 | 8 of 12 |
| Billy Elekana | 12 of 19 | 63% | 11 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Talbott (-1200), Barcelos (+750)
Round 1
It is time for two light heavyweight sluggers to do just that in the cage until one falls down. Guskov (16-3, 2-1 UFC) will take his surprising momentum and attempt to move another step forward in the wide-open 205-pound category, and he meets ex-LFA talent and late replacement Elekana (7-1, 0-0 UFC) in that next test. Referee Mike Beltran and his glorious mustache will need to watch out for errant blows, and he clocks the heavy hitters in as they clap hands. Guskov starts the match with a pair of low kicks, and he gets away with a third as he stalks the newcomer around the cage. Elekana goes to the body and head with kicks, and he suddenly shoots for a takedown to surprise Guskov. In the ensuing scramble, Elekana gets hold of Guskov’s back, sliding both hooks in and threatening with a rear-naked choke. Guskov hand-fights to defend the initial choke, and Elekana uses his long arms to wrap around and smack Guskov in the face. The fighter known as “Son of Susie” wraps up the body triangle around the waist, and he has Guskov totally shocked as he searches for another choke that does not materialize. Fans voice their disapproval as little more comes from the control, until Elekana nails Guskov with a pair of 12-6 elbows on the side of the dome. Elekana remains on the back when Guskov sits up, and he cuts Guskov on the eyebrow with one of his glancing wraparound strikes. Guskov turns to the side and briefly breaks the leg grip, but Elekana recovers it and gets the hooks back in. Guskov gets to his knees in hopes of tossing Elekana off of him, and he rips a hook off his torso so he can spin around. Elekana is unable to hold Guskov in the dominant position, and Guskov turns around and makes Elekana pay for his actions in the previous four minutes. The powerful punches slide around the guard and hurt Elekana, opening up a rear-naked choke of his own. Guskov takes the back and wraps it up, but time expires before he can finish the job. There is a bit of an awkward moment as Guskov holds the choke after the bell, but nothing comes of it.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elekana
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Guskov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elekana
Round 2
On the replay, Elekana is shown as having tapped, but it took place after the bell so it did not count. The fans are not thrilled, thinking a stoppage was missed. The fighters get to it, back on the feet to start off the second round, and Guskov wants to get out of her soon. He walks Elekana down and slugs him in the face with power punches, only to get clipped with a right hook that sneaks around his guard. A right hand from Elekana further surprises Guskov, who marches forward after it only to get caught with a one-two. Elekana dodges to evade what comes his way, and Guskov feints and fakes to draw repeated reactions out of him. Elekana scores a single left hand, and Guskov lays into him with three heavy punches. Guskov backs his foe up to the fence with a right hand, and Elekana counters him over the top. Elekana grins, under fire from the man from Uzbekistan, as he prepares to let counters fly as soon as Guskov drops his hands. Guskov stays in front of his man, splitting the guard with powerful punches, but it is the body shots that hurt Elekana. Guskov senses his opening and strings together a ferocious combo of head and body shots that lead him to a knee in the face. Elekana drops to a knee to defend from getting kneed in the head again, and Guskov tries to wail away on him with standing-to-ground punches. Guskov backs off, and Elekana elects to sit in the same position instead of standing.
Guskov, seeing there is little resistance coming his direction, strides forward and wraps a power guillotine around Elekana’s throat. With Guskov’s full weight bearing down, it takes no more than a couple seconds for Elekana to surrender from the submission
, as he is spent and about to go out. We have our first finish of the night, with the knockout artist Guskov picking up a submission victory.
The Official Result
Bogdan Guskov def. Billy Elekana R2 3:33 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Bogdan Guskov, citing his power and ability to find the chin, especially against Johnny Walker who has a weak chin. He notes that if Guskov cannot knock out Walker, he should be sent on his way. He suggests betting Guskov inside the distance with a 'no action' refund if it goes to decision.
Cody does not have a clear pick. He expresses doubt about Guskov, noting that Guskov has been a betting underdog in all his UFC fights and has shown flaws: he was losing to Zach Pauga before a KO, and gassed against Ryan Spann. Cody also questions Guskov's chin and ground game. However, he is not confident in Elekana either, who is taking the fight on short notice and has not impressed at 205. Cody ultimately passes on betting this fight.
Daniel picks Guskov, noting his big power and experience against ranked opponents. He thinks Elekana is green and took the fight on short notice. Daniel believes Guskov can back Elekana up and land something big. He is not betting due to the price but expects Guskov to win.
The host describes Guskov as having power punching but defensive grappling issues. Elekana is a solid striker with BJJ chops. The host expects Elekana to counter Guskov effectively and either club and sub him or knock him out inside the distance.
Paul also has no clear pick. He agrees with Cody that Guskov is not trustworthy as a big favorite, and Elekana is unproven. Paul considers a live bet on Elekana if Guskov shows fatigue, but does not commit to a pre-fight pick. He notes that Elekana has never been knocked out, which could provide value if Guskov fades.
The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov to win by KO. He notes Guskov has knockout power and is a dangerous fighter, while Elekana is taking the fight on short notice for his debut. He expects Guskov to win by KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 20 of 44 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 3:29 |
| Ryan Spann | 1 | 31 of 48 | 64% | 49 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 11 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:29 |
| Ryan Spann | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 21 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 9 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ryan Spann | 1 | 28 of 40 | 70% | 28 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Guskov | 15 of 38 | 39% | 10 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Ryan Spann | 31 of 48 | 64% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bogdan Guskov | 6 of 10 | 60% | 3 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Ryan Spann | 3 of 8 | 37% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bogdan Guskov | 9 of 28 | 32% | 7 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ryan Spann | 28 of 40 | 70% | 28 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 17 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Herb Dean will oversee the co-main event. Both men show a lot of respect. Guskov throws an overhand right. Spann gets in on a takedown and then lands a knee to the groin. The fight is paused. They're put back in position oddly. Spann lands another low blow with a knee. Dean doesn't take a point despite two fouls in a row. They touch gloves as the fight continues. Spann lands an overhand right. Spann is able to get a takedown and lands in guard. Guskov gives up side control. Spann is able to get into mount and is looking to take the back. Guskov almost escapes, but Spann is able to get his hooks in and takes the back. Spann is looking for a rear-naked choke with a minute left. Guskov is flattened out, so Spann abandons the attempt and starts punching before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Round 2
It is a slow start to the second round as both men are hesitant about the other's power. Both men miss with hooks. Guskov hurts Spann with a right hand and then a left hook. Spann dives for a takedown to no avail. Spann fires back with a right hand of his own. Guskov eats a giant overhand right. Spann lands another looping punch. Guskov comes forward with straight punches and is beating Spann to the punch.
A huge uppercut hurts Spann. A right hand floors Spann, who then eats a series of vicious right hands on the ground. Herb Dean finally steps in, and this is over!
The Official Result
Bogdan Guskov def. Ryan Spann TKO (Punches); R2, 3:16.
Angelo picks Ryan Spann due to experience, size, and durability. He thinks Bogdan Guskov may have early success but will fade, while Spann will survive and take over. He notes Spann is dangerous everywhere (striking, submissions, wrestling) and has cardio for 15 minutes. He believes Spann likely wins by decision or late stoppage, but is not confident enough to bet on him.
Cody leans toward Guskov as a doger pass, citing Spann's inconsistencies and poor durability. He thinks Guskov's power gives him a puncher's chance, especially if Spann's weight cut is rough. However, he admits Guskov is not very good and the pick is high variance.
Daniel acknowledges Spann's talent and athleticism but calls him a 'talented flake' with mental issues and a history of getting knocked out the same way. He thinks Spann should win based on skills but can't lay -190 on him. He leans Spann but passes on betting.
Spann has the athleticism, power, and speed advantage. He should be able to hurt Guskov early and find a finish, likely in the first round. Guskov was knocked out in his UFC debut and may be vulnerable to Spann's power. I expect Spann to win by first-round knockout.
Paul picks Spann despite his inconsistencies, arguing Spann has faced much better competition and is more skilled overall. He believes Spann's takedowns and grappling will be the difference, and that Guskov's padded record and lack of durability will be exposed.
The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann, noting that Bogdan Guskov has never fought someone taller than him and keeps his hands down. He criticizes Guskov's style of throwing shovel hooks from the waist, which may not work against a longer opponent. He believes Spann's reach and low kicks will be effective, and mentions Spann's guillotine threat. He predicts Spann will win, possibly by low kicks.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Zac Pauga | 1 | 10 of 29 | 34% | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Zac Pauga | 1 | 10 of 29 | 34% | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Guskov | 17 of 26 | 65% | 7 of 13 | 2 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 14 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Zac Pauga | 10 of 29 | 34% | 10 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bogdan Guskov | 17 of 26 | 65% | 7 of 13 | 2 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 14 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Zac Pauga | 10 of 29 | 34% | 10 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo criticizes Zac Pauga for lacking urgency and a game plan in the cage, despite having skills. He notes Pauga has become a striker in the UFC and hasn't shown his pre-UFC wrestling. Bogdan Guskov is described as heavy-handed, with good footwork and combinations, and patience on top. Angelo believes Guskov is the more dangerous fighter and picks him, though he will monitor the odds.
Big Brady picks Bogdan Guskov to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Pauga is the worst finisher in UFC history and has poor striking defense and chin, while Guskov is a one-round banger who will try to take his head off. He calls it a 50-50 fight but favors Guskov's power and aggression.
Cody picks Pauga, noting Guskov is a one-dimensional power puncher with poor cardio and takedown defense. Pauga has decent cardio and can grind out a win by controlling against the cage. Cody thinks Pauga will survive the early storm and take over in later rounds, possibly by knockout.
Pauga is more well-rounded and should be able to grind Guskov up against the cage, similar to his fight against Jordan Wright. Guskov relies heavily on early knockout power and has poor durability if he doesn't get the finish. Pauga's grinding style should wear on Guskov, leading to a late finish or decision. However, Pauga's chin is a concern if he eats early shots.
Paul also picks Pauga, agreeing that Guskov is a can crusher with no chin. He notes Pauga's experience against bigger men and his ability to implement a grinding game plan. Paul expects Pauga to wear on Guskov and get a finish or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov because he is fighting Zac Pauga, who he considers a low-level fighter from The Ultimate Fighter. He notes Guskov's good hands and delivery systems, and expects him to have an intimidation advantage on the feet. He predicts a first-round KO win, as Guskov is a finisher who gets most of his fights done in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 36 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 1 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 36 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volkan Oezdemir | 26 of 46 | 56% | 19 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 13 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 8 of 25 | 32% | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volkan Oezdemir | 26 of 46 | 56% | 19 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 13 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 8 of 25 | 32% | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans towards Bogdan Guskov, calling him the more dangerous guy with well-rounded skills. He notes Volkan Oezdemir has a weak chin and has fought top competition, but Guskov's power and patience on the ground could be key. He hopes for a 2.5 round line to bet the under.
Big Brady picks Oezdemir, despite acknowledging his recent decline and poor performance against Paul Craig. He views Guskov as a 'fraud' with poor cardio, striking defense, and competition level. He expects Oezdemir to finish Guskov early, likely by first-round KO, as this is the easiest fight of Oezdemir's UFC tenure.
Cody picks Oezdemir but is hesitant, acknowledging Guskov's first-round KO power and the trend of debuting underdogs winning. He notes Oezdemir has struggled lately, with low volume and no knockdowns in four years, but has elite training and experience. Guskov is a wild card who has only faced regional competition. Cody thinks Oezdemir can point-fight to a decision but Guskov is live for an early finish.
Daniel Levi picks Volkan Oezdemir, acknowledging that Oezdemir has shown regression but believes the experience gap is massive. He notes that Oezdemir has fought the who's who of the division, while Guskov is an unproven newcomer with a questionable chin. Levi admits Oezdemir hasn't finished anyone since 2019 and his takedown defense has declined, but he still thinks Oezdemir has enough to win. He is not confident enough to offer a bet, calling it a 'see how it goes' fight.
Lucrative James is on Guskov moneyline, believing Oezdemir has been on a downtrend since the Jiri knockout, with worse reaction time and chin. He thinks Guskov has true power, shown by knockouts in multiple ways (elbows, jabs, straight hands). He notes Guskov's submissions are also good, and he has a prop on Guskov by submission at 20-1. He argues that heavyweights with knockout power can step up in competition more easily because they only need one shot.
I'm picking Oezdemir here. He has a huge experience advantage and I expect a very pissed off version of him after his last fight. He should use his leg kicking game to slow down Guskov and then find his knockout power within the first 10 minutes. Guskov is a power puncher who finishes early, but when he faces resistance he struggles. Oezdemir's power and experience should be too much.
Paul picks Oezdemir but is scared, recalling Oezdemir's poor performance against Krylov where he was mauled. He compares Guskov to Nursulton Ruziboev, a debuting fighter who crushed a veteran. Paul notes Guskov has first-round KO potential and is a low-owned DFS play. He won't bet the -180 but will pick Oezdemir.
The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir by late second-round TKO, noting that Oezdemir has improved technically and has gone to decisions with tough opponents. He acknowledges Guskov is dangerous but believes Oezdemir will weather early rough moments and find a finish as the fight progresses.
Zac Pauga - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Zac Pauga | 1 | 10 of 29 | 34% | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Zac Pauga | 1 | 10 of 29 | 34% | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Guskov | 17 of 26 | 65% | 7 of 13 | 2 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 14 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Zac Pauga | 10 of 29 | 34% | 10 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bogdan Guskov | 17 of 26 | 65% | 7 of 13 | 2 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 14 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Zac Pauga | 10 of 29 | 34% | 10 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo criticizes Zac Pauga for lacking urgency and a game plan in the cage, despite having skills. He notes Pauga has become a striker in the UFC and hasn't shown his pre-UFC wrestling. Bogdan Guskov is described as heavy-handed, with good footwork and combinations, and patience on top. Angelo believes Guskov is the more dangerous fighter and picks him, though he will monitor the odds.
Big Brady picks Bogdan Guskov to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Pauga is the worst finisher in UFC history and has poor striking defense and chin, while Guskov is a one-round banger who will try to take his head off. He calls it a 50-50 fight but favors Guskov's power and aggression.
Cody picks Pauga, noting Guskov is a one-dimensional power puncher with poor cardio and takedown defense. Pauga has decent cardio and can grind out a win by controlling against the cage. Cody thinks Pauga will survive the early storm and take over in later rounds, possibly by knockout.
Pauga is more well-rounded and should be able to grind Guskov up against the cage, similar to his fight against Jordan Wright. Guskov relies heavily on early knockout power and has poor durability if he doesn't get the finish. Pauga's grinding style should wear on Guskov, leading to a late finish or decision. However, Pauga's chin is a concern if he eats early shots.
Paul also picks Pauga, agreeing that Guskov is a can crusher with no chin. He notes Pauga's experience against bigger men and his ability to implement a grinding game plan. Paul expects Pauga to wear on Guskov and get a finish or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov because he is fighting Zac Pauga, who he considers a low-level fighter from The Ultimate Fighter. He notes Guskov's good hands and delivery systems, and expects him to have an intimidation advantage on the feet. He predicts a first-round KO win, as Guskov is a finisher who gets most of his fights done in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 67 of 117 | 57% | 72 of 123 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Zac Pauga | 0 | 56 of 112 | 50% | 62 of 120 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 20 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Zac Pauga | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 27 of 48 | 56% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Zac Pauga | 0 | 23 of 40 | 57% | 23 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 25 of 40 | 62% | 25 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Zac Pauga | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 25 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 67 of 117 | 57% | 35 of 80 | 25 of 30 | 7 of 7 | 58 of 105 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 |
| Zac Pauga | 56 of 112 | 50% | 42 of 96 | 10 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 50 of 102 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 15 of 29 | 51% | 11 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Zac Pauga | 13 of 29 | 44% | 9 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 27 of 48 | 56% | 14 of 33 | 10 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Zac Pauga | 23 of 40 | 57% | 18 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 25 of 40 | 62% | 10 of 24 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 34 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Zac Pauga | 20 of 43 | 46% | 15 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 37 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-200), Pauga (+170)
Round 1
Welcome to another installment of Dana White’s Saturday Night Contender Series, also known as UFC on ESPN 47 or UFC Vegas 75. This dozen-fight show in the Apex is extremely light on star power, with just three ranked competitors on the whole billing, and two of those are in the main attraction. Sometimes, fight cards less desirable on paper can deliver in a big way, so all hope is not lost. Starting low in the standings at 205 pounds, either one of these men will reach .500 or pass it with a win today. The latter can be said for Pauga (6-1, 1-1 UFC), while the former is available for Bukauskas (14-5, 2-3 UFC) on his second stint with the promotion. The third man in the cage for the first fight of the night is referee Mark Smith, and the two fighters choose la violencia and proceed without a glove touch. Bukauskas takes the middle of the fence, and Pauga practically runs at his opponent. Swinging his fists wildly, Pauga clips Bukauskas with windmilling overhand right, and Bukauskas bangs into the wall and is seeing stars. Pauga closes the distance and grabs hold of his opponent to dump him to the mat. Bukauskas recovers to full guard, and he hacks with elbows off his back until he fights to his feet. Pauga presses heavily on him, but Bukauskas shakes him off and returns to kickboxing range. Pauga sticks out a jab that snaps the head back, and Bukauskas absorbs a subsequent low kick and barely dodges a looping right hook. Pauga attacks the body, and Bukauskas sits down on a thudding leg kick. Pauga dings Bukauskas with a pair of hooks, and he uses the momentum to press “The Baltic Gladiator” to the fencing. Pauga hunts for a trip as he tangles up Bukauskas’ legs, and Bukauskas is able to stifle the attempt and a redoubled effort from the former NFL player. Bukauskas shoves him away, and Pauga springs back away from a straight left hand. Bukauskas follows it with a high kick and a jab, and Pauga ignores it to double up his jabs. Pauga swings too hard with a right hand, and Bukauskas catches him with a right hand counter. Pauga shakes it out, and the two trade heavy leather in an exchange. Chins remain intact, and Bukauskas swipes out with a left hook that grazes the chin. Bukauskas counters an advancing Pauga with a right hand, and Pauga is rocked and shoots for an emergency takedown. Bukauskas stands him up and pushes him away, but he does not empty his gas tank hunting for a finish. Instead, Bukauskas tags him with a big right hand, and the horn blares right after Pauga gets one back.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pauga
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Pauga
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pauga
Round 2
The light heavyweights come together in the center of the Octagon, ready to trade, but they are somewhat cautious of the other’s power. Bukauskas lands first with a chipping calf kick, and Pauga walks into a counter right hand. Bukauskas strafes to the side, and they both snap out powerful jabs. Pauga takes the worst of it when they land at the same time, but he does not seem concerned as he races forward with a swinging hook and a level change for a double. Bukauskas avoids the former and shrugs off the latter, and he circles away to aim a left hand at the chest. Pauga splits the guard with a left hand, and he surges forward and hits nothing but air with Bukauskas out of harm’s way. Pauga plants his shin on Bukauskas’ raising leg, and he jabs, ducks and bangs a right hand off Bukauskas’ chin. Pauga lunges, and Bukauskas reacts by jumping away from him. Bukauskas sits down on a thudding low kick, and Pauga comes at him throwing haymakers. Bukauskas prepares a right hand counter but does not release it as Pauga is rushing at him. They trade low kicks, and Bukauskas’ foot goes up to bump off the cup. Pauga waves off Smith, and he raises his guard right in the nick of time when Bukauskas zooms a high kick at him. Pauga keeps plodding forward, jabbing his way in, and he telegraphs a big right hand on the way. Pauga dips and scores a short right hook, and Bukauskas replies with the fall of his foot on the chest. Pauga strides forward, right hand ready for bear, and he knocks Bukauskas back and digs punches to the body. Bukauskas tries to keep circling away and respond with a few punches, but he is more intent on dodging the wide arcing blows aimed at his chin. Pauga steps through with a straight right hand, wobbling Bukauskas and sending him ricocheting off the fencing. Pauga ends up clinched, but he moves back so he can unload power punches. Bukauskas avoids the worst of it but his face is swelling from the blows. Bukauskas ends the round with a few hooks of his own.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pauga
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Pauga
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pauga
Round 3
The last round begins with Bukauskas trying to keep a slugging Pauga at bay. He cannot do so, as Pauga runs him down and busts him in the chops. Bukauskas responds with a big body kick, and Pauga bites down on his mouthpiece to throw bombs. Bukauskas closes the distance to stop Pauga from reaching him with these winging punches, and he presses the American against the fence. Smith tells Bukauskas to work as the two do little in the position, and Bukauskas answers this by gripping his hands around the back. Pauga fights off the potential takedown setup, and he ignores a few knees to the thigh. Pauga explodes to turn him around, and the two end up splitting with three minutes left on the clock. Bukauskas misses with a check left hook, as Pauga throws him off with feints and fakes now. Bukauskas connects with a clean right hand as Pauga sits still for too long, and Pauga blinks it out and flicks out a jab. The two clash together when throwing hands, and Pauga backs Bukauskas away with a sprinting right hand. Pauga kicks the ribs, and Bukauskas stands him up with a long punch. Pauga, not discouraged, throws another kick to the same spot, and this time he is not answered the same. Pauga winds up on a power right hand, and Bukauskas wears it well and is forced to eat a second one right after. Pauga aims another body kick, and he times a takedown when Bukauskas comes at him. Pauga ducks a punch to unloads a hefty right hand, and he absorbs a flush one-two without batting an eye. Pauga nearly falls over when swinging for the fences, and he clips Bukauskas with an overhand right. Bukauskas tries to counter, and he spins with a back kick but Pauga is too close. Bukauskas pops him with a jab, and he spins with a back kick that finds its mark. Pauga rushes headlong into a punch, and the two engage in one last mighty slugfest before the final bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pauga (30-27 Pauga)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Pauga (30-27 Pauga)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Pauga)
The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Zac Pauga via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas because he is the more technical striker and this is mostly a striking matchup. He notes that if Zac Pauga could wrestle effectively, he'd be the easy pick, but Pauga hasn't shown that wrestling in the UFC. However, Angelo acknowledges there is a world where Pauga holds Bukauskas against the cage for 15 minutes and wins a decision, so he does not place a bet.
Big Brady picks Zac Pauga to win by decision, but he is very low on both fighters. He criticizes Bukauskas for low volume and power, and Pauga for taking Jordan Wright to a decision, which he calls a terrible look. However, Pauga throws more volume and has solid cardio. Brady thinks Pauga can hold Bukauskas against the cage and potentially take him down, as Bukauskas has struggled with takedown defense in the past. He expects a boring fight with Pauga winning a close decision.
Cody is confident in Bukauskas, citing his speed, striking advantage, and improved cardio since returning to the UFC. He notes that Pauga's only notable win is a decision over Jordan Wright, which was uninspiring, and that Pauga is 35 with only three years of pro experience. Cody thinks Bukauskas will outwork Pauga and possibly get a TKO in the second or third round.
Connor picks Bukauskas, acknowledging his limited boxing but noting his athleticism and size. He believes Bukauskas has improved his aggression and output, as seen in the Tyson Pedro fight. Connor expects Bukauskas to use his reach and movement to outwork Pauga, who lacks dynamic speed. He thinks Bukauskas will win by decision or late stoppage.
Daniel Levi leans toward Modestas Bukauskas, citing his size, length, and experience. He notes Pauga's greenness and that the UFC may be setting up Bukauskas as a prospect. He thinks Bukauskas could win by knockout. However, he is not interested in betting at -200 and sees it as a pass at current odds.
Pauga has a good enough striking and overall MMA game to tie up Bukauskas in the clinch, drag him to the ground, and do damage from top. He has good cardio to maintain this for 15 minutes. Bukauskas is overhyped due to recency bias from his win over Tyson Pedro. Pauga is a solid underdog at plus 165. Pauga wins by decision.
Paul agrees, noting that Pauga's win over Jordan Wright was terrible and that he will be picking against Pauga for the rest of eternity. He thinks Bukauskas is younger, more experienced, and has rebuilt himself after a knee injury. Paul expects Bukauskas to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, citing a massive advantage at range on the feet against Zac Pauga. He notes Pauga was on one of the worst seasons of TUF and lacks skill at range, while Bukauskas is technical with good footwork. He also mentions Bukauskas has improved since his first UFC stint, with a win over Tyson Pedro on short notice and a controversial loss to Khalil Rountree. He believes Bukauskas is reborn and will continue his momentum.
Zane picks Bukauskas, noting his improved output and good frame for light heavyweight. He throws long strikes and has power that can be decisive. Zane criticizes Pauga as not dynamic, lacking speed, and only beating Jordan Wright by clinching. He expects Bukauskas to move around, make Pauga look slow, and land consistent one-twos for a clear decision or late TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Pauga | 0 | 29 of 78 | 37% | 199 of 261 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Jordan Wright | 0 | 59 of 85 | 69% | 85 of 114 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 8:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zac Pauga | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 55 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jordan Wright | 0 | 22 of 26 | 84% | 43 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 | |
| 2 | Zac Pauga | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 105 of 122 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Jordan Wright | 0 | 15 of 22 | 68% | 20 of 30 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:27 | |
| 3 | Zac Pauga | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 39 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jordan Wright | 0 | 22 of 37 | 59% | 22 of 37 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Pauga | 29 of 78 | 37% | 15 of 55 | 13 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 18 of 65 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Jordan Wright | 59 of 85 | 69% | 31 of 54 | 21 of 24 | 7 of 7 | 21 of 42 | 38 of 43 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zac Pauga | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jordan Wright | 22 of 26 | 84% | 8 of 11 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 21 of 24 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Zac Pauga | 7 of 19 | 36% | 5 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 13 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jordan Wright | 15 of 22 | 68% | 10 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 8 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Zac Pauga | 17 of 52 | 32% | 9 of 36 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 49 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jordan Wright | 22 of 37 | 59% | 13 of 27 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 32 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident in Pauga, citing his strong wrestling and low stance. He notes Pauga went up to heavyweight for TUF but is a natural light heavyweight. Jordan Wright has a 100% finish rate but is on a three-fight losing streak by stoppage and has a weak chin. Angelo thinks Pauga will wrestle and win, but there's no value in the betting line so he won't bet.
Big Brady is picking Jordan Wright for the upset, despite never picking him before. He notes that Pauga was knocked out by Muhammad Usman, who is not a power puncher, and that Pauga has only a 20% finish rate. He believes Wright is dangerous in the first two minutes and should come out aggressively rather than wrestling, as his cardio is poor. He predicts a first-round knockout for Wright.
Cody picks Pauga but is terrified of the -270 line. He notes Jordan Wright has only 5-6 minutes of cardio and is an under machine, but Pauga isn't a big finisher. He says Wright can absolutely get finishes early, so he'll watch weigh-ins closely. He compares Wright to Terence McKinney as a 50/50 fighter who either finishes early or gets pieced up. He also mentions Pauga got knocked out in his last fight and has been hurt before, so he's not confident.
Connor picks Wright because he thinks the move to light heavyweight could benefit Wright's speed and power, and Pauga is inexperienced and slow. However, he acknowledges Wright's mental fragility and tendency to panic. He picks Wright to win by first-round KO, but says he wouldn't bet on it.
Jacob picks Pauga but is a Jordan Wright fan. He thinks Wright's chin is gone and his blitzing style leaves him open. Pauga's wrestling and power at 205 should be too much. Jacob played the under 1.5 rounds and feels good about it, though he cautions both are coming off knockout losses. He expects Wright to get knocked out again.
Pauga has better cardio and a more complete MMA game, while Wright fades after the first round and has durability issues. Pauga can survive the early storm and then take over with grappling and pressure, finishing Wright via ground and pound in the second or third round.
Paul agrees with Cody, calling Jordan Wright a lost fighter with no cardio or durability. He details Wright's pattern of starting fast but fading and getting finished. He notes Pauga has excellent cardio, trains at altitude, and has enough striking to pressure Wright. However, he says the -270 line is too high for a guy with one UFC win who got knocked out. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds at -350 as a parlay piece.
The MMA Guru picks Zac Pauga, citing his takedown defense from The Ultimate Fighter and his size advantage. He criticizes Jordan Wright's poor decision-making and quick turnaround after a KO loss. He believes Pauga is patient and can catch Wright with a counter shot after Wright gets reckless in round two, predicting a KO. He notes the possibility of an upset but trusts Pauga's chin more.
Zane picks Pauga because Jordan Wright has a history of panicking and losing focus when he doesn't finish early. Wright is dangerous early but fades and makes defensive mistakes. Pauga is raw but has a takedown game and can survive the initial storm. Zane notes that Wright's move to light heavyweight seems desperate and may not fix his mental issues.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Usman | 1 | 12 of 40 | 30% | 13 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Zac Pauga | 0 | 32 of 50 | 64% | 33 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mohammed Usman | 0 | 9 of 35 | 25% | 10 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Zac Pauga | 0 | 31 of 46 | 67% | 32 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mohammed Usman | 1 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Zac Pauga | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Usman | 12 of 40 | 30% | 11 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
| Zac Pauga | 32 of 50 | 64% | 14 of 29 | 9 of 10 | 9 of 11 | 31 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mohammed Usman | 9 of 35 | 25% | 8 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Zac Pauga | 31 of 46 | 67% | 14 of 26 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 11 | 30 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mohammed Usman | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Zac Pauga | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo has a slight lean towards Mohammed Usman due to his size, power, and physicality. He notes that Pauga is the better overall fighter but his size disadvantage at heavyweight could be decisive. He references Pauga being dropped by Terence Jacquez and believes a similar shot from Usman could finish him. However, he acknowledges Usman has had issues with wrestlers in the past.
Big Brady picks Zac Pauga, noting his speed and cardio advantages over Mohammed Usman. He criticizes Usman's low volume and poor cardio, and praises Pauga's takedown defense and improved striking. He predicts Pauga will stuff takedowns and win a decision, though he notes Pauga is undersized for heavyweight. He also mentions Pauga's training at Elevation Fight Team with Curtis Blaydes.
Cody also picks Pauga, highlighting his undefeated record and clean performances on TUF. He notes that Pauga is a natural 205-pounder who moved up for the show and will likely move back down. Cody contrasts Pauga's refined skills with Usman's poor losses and questionable wins, including a controversial decision. He believes Pauga's speed and output will overwhelm Usman.
Paul picks Pauga, noting that Pauga is a former football player with good mobility and athleticism. He mentions that Pauga looked impressive on The Ultimate Fighter, throwing spinning attacks and showing improvement. Paul is wary of laying -250 on a debuting heavyweight but sees Pauga as the clear pick.
The MMA Guru picks Zac Pauga by third-round ground-and-pound TKO. He praises Pauga's technique and undefeated record, and criticizes Mohammed Usman's lack of commitment and poor performances. He believes Pauga's Samoan chin will allow him to take shots and break Usman down.
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo criticizes Zac Pauga for lacking urgency and a game plan in the cage, despite having skills. He notes Pauga has become a striker in the UFC and hasn't shown his pre-UFC wrestling. Bogdan Guskov is described as heavy-handed, with good footwork and combinations, and patience on top. Angelo believes Guskov is the more dangerous fighter and picks him, though he will monitor the odds.
Big Brady picks Bogdan Guskov to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Pauga is the worst finisher in UFC history and has poor striking defense and chin, while Guskov is a one-round banger who will try to take his head off. He calls it a 50-50 fight but favors Guskov's power and aggression.
Cody picks Pauga, noting Guskov is a one-dimensional power puncher with poor cardio and takedown defense. Pauga has decent cardio and can grind out a win by controlling against the cage. Cody thinks Pauga will survive the early storm and take over in later rounds, possibly by knockout.
Pauga is more well-rounded and should be able to grind Guskov up against the cage, similar to his fight against Jordan Wright. Guskov relies heavily on early knockout power and has poor durability if he doesn't get the finish. Pauga's grinding style should wear on Guskov, leading to a late finish or decision. However, Pauga's chin is a concern if he eats early shots.
Paul also picks Pauga, agreeing that Guskov is a can crusher with no chin. He notes Pauga's experience against bigger men and his ability to implement a grinding game plan. Paul expects Pauga to wear on Guskov and get a finish or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov because he is fighting Zac Pauga, who he considers a low-level fighter from The Ultimate Fighter. He notes Guskov's good hands and delivery systems, and expects him to have an intimidation advantage on the feet. He predicts a first-round KO win, as Guskov is a finisher who gets most of his fights done in the first round.
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