UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
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Age 33
Height 6' 3"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 6' 2"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Bogdan Guskov
4.57 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
4.09 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
57.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Zac Pauga
4.46 SLpM
62.0% Str. Acc.
2.73 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.38 TD Avg
7.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Bogdan Guskov - Fight History
Draw vs Jan Błachowicz
Draw R3 5:00 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 1 84 of 149 56% 100 of 173 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:08
Bogdan Guskov 1 80 of 140 57% 98 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 25 of 52 48% 25 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 0 21 of 44 47% 21 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 11 of 13 84% 25 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 1 32 of 51 62% 50 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:09
3 Jan Błachowicz 1 48 of 84 57% 50 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Bogdan Guskov 0 27 of 45 60% 27 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 84 of 149 56% 56 of 112 11 of 17 17 of 20 74 of 135 2 of 3 8 of 11
Bogdan Guskov 80 of 140 57% 69 of 127 2 of 3 9 of 10 52 of 96 0 of 0 28 of 44
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 25 of 52 48% 13 of 35 3 of 6 9 of 11 25 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 21 of 44 47% 10 of 32 2 of 3 9 of 9 21 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 11 of 13 84% 7 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 3 11 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 32 of 51 62% 32 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 28 of 44
3 Jan Błachowicz 48 of 84 57% 36 of 68 7 of 10 5 of 6 38 of 70 2 of 3 8 of 11
Bogdan Guskov 27 of 45 60% 27 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 1 27 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Angelo picks Jan Błachowicz, noting his experience, Polish power, and solid wrestling. He argues that Jan's recent losses are to elite competition and that he arguably won some of them. He compares the two as similar fighters but gives Jan the edge due to his chin holding up at 42. However, he advises against betting on Jan at -145 due to the risk of Guskov's power.

advises against betting
"I'm going to pick Yan. But to bet on him at minus 145, at 42 years old... would be a poor financial decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz despite his age (42), citing his superior striking, volume, durability, cardio, and grappling. He pokes holes in Guskov's wins, noting they came against lower-level opponents. He expects Błachowicz to win by decision, but acknowledges age is a concern.

Błachowicz by decision
"I'm still going with the old man. One last ride. I'm going to take Yonhovich to win this fight. I'll say he wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Cody picks Jan, trusting his chin and experience. He notes that Jan has fought and nearly beaten top competition like Pereira and Ulberg. He believes Jan's wrestling and submission threat will be factors, and he likes Jan by submission at plus 765. He thinks Guskov's wins are over lower-level opponents.

Jan by submission +765
"I'm going to lean on the old warhorse um minus 130 Yonhovich for that chin to hold up and him just to kind of you know show goosebump that even though he's old there's still levels to this."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Connor picks Błachowicz, citing his low kicks and jab as effective tools against Guskov's boxing-heavy style. He notes that Guskov was submitted by Volkan Oezdemir, indicating a vulnerability to wrestling, and Błachowicz has strong top control and submissions. Connor acknowledges that Błachowicz has lost speed and the 'Błachowicz blitz,' but believes his range tools and wrestling will be enough. He doesn't want to watch it but wants Jan to win.

Odds: Błachowicz opened -150, now -130; Guskov opened +130, now +110.
"I think you have to pick old Polish power to do it again. I think you do. I don't want to see it, but I want it to happen."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Daniel picks Guskov as a dog, acknowledging Jan's technical edge but fearing Jan's age (42) and recent decline. He thinks Guskov's brawling style and power could catch Jan, who may be nearing a drop-off. He notes Jan's calf kicks and takedowns as threats but believes Guskov's youth and momentum make him a live underdog.

"Give me Bogdan and Guskov to come out here as an underdog, get this upset and knock out the man with the legendary Polish power."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Lucrative James argues that Jan Błachowicz is superior in every facet of MMA—striking, grappling, cardio, and fight IQ. He notes Jan's recent close fights against top competition (Alex Pereira, Carlos Ulberg) and his high-altitude training camp. He believes Guskov's only path to victory is an early knockout, but Jan's durability and experience should carry him to a decision win.

"I have to pick Yan in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

The host acknowledges Guskov's rise but believes he will struggle against the more experienced Błachowicz. Despite Błachowicz's age and recent struggles, the host expects him to mix up his game, land takedowns, and possibly secure a submission.

submission
"I think he should be able to mix this game up well enough eventually land some takedowns and I think he might even be able to pull off a submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Paul agrees, highlighting Jan's durability and high-level experience. He notes that Jan has gone the distance with champions and has a well-rounded game. He believes Guskov's competition is weak and that Jan will outwork him. He also mentions Jan's submission ability.

"Jan is something special, man. He just knows how to keep in."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

The Guru picks Jan Błachowicz over Bogdan Guskov, citing Błachowicz's experience and technical edge. He notes Błachowicz nearly beat Alex Pereira and has faced top competition. The Guru predicts a clear decision or late TKO.

"I'm going to go with Yamblohovic getting this one done over Bognam. Decision whim clearcut 3027 or 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Zane also picks Błachowicz, emphasizing that Guskov's wins have come against a weak run of fighters and that Krylov's chin is gone. He notes that Błachowicz hasn't been finished and has the wrestling to exploit Guskov's takedown defense. Zane believes Guskov's wild boxing style leaves him open to low kicks and takedowns, and Błachowicz's experience and strength will carry him to a decision or submission.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"We're taking Jan. In part also just because he still hasn't been getting finished at all."
WIN vs Nikita Krylov
KO R1 4:18 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 1 23 of 43 53% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 1 23 of 43 53% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 16 of 34 47% 6 of 20 3 of 5 7 of 9 16 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 23 of 43 53% 20 of 40 1 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 26 0 of 0 12 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 16 of 34 47% 6 of 20 3 of 5 7 of 9 16 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 23 of 43 53% 20 of 40 1 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 26 0 of 0 12 of 17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Angelo picks Nikita Krylov, citing his well-rounded skills, high fight IQ, and clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes Bogdan Guskov has power but showed wrestling holes in his last fight. He uses MMA math (Krylov beat Volkan, Volkan beat Guskov) and expects Krylov to wrestle. He will not bet on this fight.

No bet
"Nikita's going to be the pick because it's an obvious path forward and he is a very high fight IQ fighter. I'm not betting on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov, citing a significant grappling advantage. He notes Guskov has been outgrappled by lesser fighters like Billy Elekana and Volkan Oezdemir, and believes Krylov will take him down and submit him easily. He worries about Krylov's durability and fight IQ but thinks if he wrestles, he wins. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"I got to go Krillof here. ... if he goes out there and gets takedowns, he should make this look quite easy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Connor acknowledges Krylov's shaky confidence after the Reyes KO but believes Guskov's style is more manageable. He notes Guskov's poor takedown defense and Krylov's clear path to win via wrestling. He thinks Krylov will test his grappling early and avoid striking exchanges.

"I'll take Krylov, but I'm going to take Krylov too."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

This is a perfect matchup for Krylov to utilize his grapple-heavy approach, keep Guskov on his back, grind him out, and clearly win on the scorecards or even lock up a late submission.

decision or late submission
"I think this is a perfect match up for Krillof to go out there and utilize his grapple heavy approach and keep Guskov on his back, grind him out and clearly win this fight on the scorecards or even locking …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov, citing his patience, calmness, and ability to eat shots and break opponents. He criticizes Nikita Krylov for returning too soon after a KO loss and being too wild. He predicts an early TKO, possibly in round one or two, with multiple knockdowns.

TKO, round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go with Bogdan Guskov getting this one done against Nikita Krylov by TKO early."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Zane picks Krylov, noting that Guskov is vulnerable to wrestling and Krylov has the skills to exploit that. He sees the potential for disaster if Krylov hesitates, but believes the path to victory is clear via takedowns and ground control.

"Yeah, I mean, I'll take Krylov."
WIN vs Billy Elekana
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 3:33 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Guskov 0 47 of 71 66% 59 of 85 0 of 0 --- 2 1 1:24
Billy Elekana 0 20 of 28 71% 28 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Guskov 0 12 of 17 70% 19 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:44
Billy Elekana 0 8 of 9 88% 16 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:40
2 Bogdan Guskov 0 35 of 54 64% 40 of 60 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:40
Billy Elekana 0 12 of 19 63% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Guskov 47 of 71 66% 39 of 63 5 of 5 3 of 3 19 of 34 11 of 11 17 of 26
Billy Elekana 20 of 28 71% 18 of 25 2 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 21 0 of 0 7 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Guskov 12 of 17 70% 9 of 14 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 14
Billy Elekana 8 of 9 88% 7 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 7
2 Bogdan Guskov 35 of 54 64% 30 of 49 5 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 31 11 of 11 8 of 12
Billy Elekana 12 of 19 63% 11 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Billy Elekana vs. Bogdan Guskov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Talbott (-1200), Barcelos (+750)

Round 1
It is time for two light heavyweight sluggers to do just that in the cage until one falls down. Guskov (16-3, 2-1 UFC) will take his surprising momentum and attempt to move another step forward in the wide-open 205-pound category, and he meets ex-LFA talent and late replacement Elekana (7-1, 0-0 UFC) in that next test. Referee Mike Beltran and his glorious mustache will need to watch out for errant blows, and he clocks the heavy hitters in as they clap hands. Guskov starts the match with a pair of low kicks, and he gets away with a third as he stalks the newcomer around the cage. Elekana goes to the body and head with kicks, and he suddenly shoots for a takedown to surprise Guskov. In the ensuing scramble, Elekana gets hold of Guskov’s back, sliding both hooks in and threatening with a rear-naked choke. Guskov hand-fights to defend the initial choke, and Elekana uses his long arms to wrap around and smack Guskov in the face. The fighter known as “Son of Susie” wraps up the body triangle around the waist, and he has Guskov totally shocked as he searches for another choke that does not materialize. Fans voice their disapproval as little more comes from the control, until Elekana nails Guskov with a pair of 12-6 elbows on the side of the dome. Elekana remains on the back when Guskov sits up, and he cuts Guskov on the eyebrow with one of his glancing wraparound strikes. Guskov turns to the side and briefly breaks the leg grip, but Elekana recovers it and gets the hooks back in. Guskov gets to his knees in hopes of tossing Elekana off of him, and he rips a hook off his torso so he can spin around. Elekana is unable to hold Guskov in the dominant position, and Guskov turns around and makes Elekana pay for his actions in the previous four minutes. The powerful punches slide around the guard and hurt Elekana, opening up a rear-naked choke of his own. Guskov takes the back and wraps it up, but time expires before he can finish the job. There is a bit of an awkward moment as Guskov holds the choke after the bell, but nothing comes of it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elekana
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Guskov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elekana

Round 2
On the replay, Elekana is shown as having tapped, but it took place after the bell so it did not count. The fans are not thrilled, thinking a stoppage was missed. The fighters get to it, back on the feet to start off the second round, and Guskov wants to get out of her soon. He walks Elekana down and slugs him in the face with power punches, only to get clipped with a right hook that sneaks around his guard. A right hand from Elekana further surprises Guskov, who marches forward after it only to get caught with a one-two. Elekana dodges to evade what comes his way, and Guskov feints and fakes to draw repeated reactions out of him. Elekana scores a single left hand, and Guskov lays into him with three heavy punches. Guskov backs his foe up to the fence with a right hand, and Elekana counters him over the top. Elekana grins, under fire from the man from Uzbekistan, as he prepares to let counters fly as soon as Guskov drops his hands. Guskov stays in front of his man, splitting the guard with powerful punches, but it is the body shots that hurt Elekana. Guskov senses his opening and strings together a ferocious combo of head and body shots that lead him to a knee in the face. Elekana drops to a knee to defend from getting kneed in the head again, and Guskov tries to wail away on him with standing-to-ground punches. Guskov backs off, and Elekana elects to sit in the same position instead of standing.
Guskov, seeing there is little resistance coming his direction, strides forward and wraps a power guillotine around Elekana’s throat. With Guskov’s full weight bearing down, it takes no more than a couple seconds for Elekana to surrender from the submission
, as he is spent and about to go out. We have our first finish of the night, with the knockout artist Guskov picking up a submission victory.

The Official Result
Bogdan Guskov def. Billy Elekana R2 3:33 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Angelo picks Bogdan Guskov, citing his power and ability to find the chin, especially against Johnny Walker who has a weak chin. He notes that if Guskov cannot knock out Walker, he should be sent on his way. He suggests betting Guskov inside the distance with a 'no action' refund if it goes to decision.

Bet Bogdan Guskov inside the distance decision no action.
"bognan gusov is the pick ... if you want to go Bogan gusov inside the distance maybe you'll get a discount"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Cody does not have a clear pick. He expresses doubt about Guskov, noting that Guskov has been a betting underdog in all his UFC fights and has shown flaws: he was losing to Zach Pauga before a KO, and gassed against Ryan Spann. Cody also questions Guskov's chin and ground game. However, he is not confident in Elekana either, who is taking the fight on short notice and has not impressed at 205. Cody ultimately passes on betting this fight.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"it's just a flat pass it's a flat pass"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Daniel picks Guskov, noting his big power and experience against ranked opponents. He thinks Elekana is green and took the fight on short notice. Daniel believes Guskov can back Elekana up and land something big. He is not betting due to the price but expects Guskov to win.

Daniel says it's a pass betting wise. He mentions Guskov's power and Elekana's inexperience.
"give me a Bogan but uh it's a pass betting wise for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Billy Elekana

The host describes Guskov as having power punching but defensive grappling issues. Elekana is a solid striker with BJJ chops. The host expects Elekana to counter Guskov effectively and either club and sub him or knock him out inside the distance.

inside the distance
"give me Alana and alaka inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Paul also has no clear pick. He agrees with Cody that Guskov is not trustworthy as a big favorite, and Elekana is unproven. Paul considers a live bet on Elekana if Guskov shows fatigue, but does not commit to a pre-fight pick. He notes that Elekana has never been knocked out, which could provide value if Guskov fades.

Considers a live bet on Elekana if Guskov shows fatigue in round one.
"I don't plan to do anything pre flop for alak probably a better live bet see how it plays out in round one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov to win by KO. He notes Guskov has knockout power and is a dangerous fighter, while Elekana is taking the fight on short notice for his debut. He expects Guskov to win by KO.

KO
"I'm going to go Bogdan gusov to beat Billy Elana by KO"
WIN vs Ryan Spann
TKO (punches) R2 3:16 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Guskov 0 15 of 38 39% 20 of 44 1 of 3 33% 1 0 3:29
Ryan Spann 1 31 of 48 64% 49 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Guskov 0 6 of 10 60% 11 of 16 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:29
Ryan Spann 0 3 of 8 37% 21 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bogdan Guskov 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ryan Spann 1 28 of 40 70% 28 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Guskov 15 of 38 39% 10 of 30 3 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 34 2 of 2 2 of 2
Ryan Spann 31 of 48 64% 30 of 47 0 of 0 1 of 1 17 of 31 0 of 0 14 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Guskov 6 of 10 60% 3 of 6 2 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 6 2 of 2 2 of 2
Ryan Spann 3 of 8 37% 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bogdan Guskov 9 of 28 32% 7 of 24 1 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 28 of 40 70% 28 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 23 0 of 0 14 of 17
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov

Round 1
Herb Dean will oversee the co-main event. Both men show a lot of respect. Guskov throws an overhand right. Spann gets in on a takedown and then lands a knee to the groin. The fight is paused. They're put back in position oddly. Spann lands another low blow with a knee. Dean doesn't take a point despite two fouls in a row. They touch gloves as the fight continues. Spann lands an overhand right. Spann is able to get a takedown and lands in guard. Guskov gives up side control. Spann is able to get into mount and is looking to take the back. Guskov almost escapes, but Spann is able to get his hooks in and takes the back. Spann is looking for a rear-naked choke with a minute left. Guskov is flattened out, so Spann abandons the attempt and starts punching before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spann

Round 2
It is a slow start to the second round as both men are hesitant about the other's power. Both men miss with hooks. Guskov hurts Spann with a right hand and then a left hook. Spann dives for a takedown to no avail. Spann fires back with a right hand of his own. Guskov eats a giant overhand right. Spann lands another looping punch. Guskov comes forward with straight punches and is beating Spann to the punch.
A huge uppercut hurts Spann. A right hand floors Spann, who then eats a series of vicious right hands on the ground. Herb Dean finally steps in, and this is over!

The Official Result
Bogdan Guskov def. Ryan Spann TKO (Punches); R2, 3:16.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann due to experience, size, and durability. He thinks Bogdan Guskov may have early success but will fade, while Spann will survive and take over. He notes Spann is dangerous everywhere (striking, submissions, wrestling) and has cardio for 15 minutes. He believes Spann likely wins by decision or late stoppage, but is not confident enough to bet on him.

"Ryan span is going to be the pick because of experience I don't know if I trust him enough to bet on him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Cody leans toward Guskov as a doger pass, citing Spann's inconsistencies and poor durability. He thinks Guskov's power gives him a puncher's chance, especially if Spann's weight cut is rough. However, he admits Guskov is not very good and the pick is high variance.

by KO (estimated +200)
"it's a doger pass type of spot for me Goose can or Goose can that may actually be he could be I don't think this guy's very good whatsoever but you're laying a A plus 170 him by knockout would …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Daniel acknowledges Spann's talent and athleticism but calls him a 'talented flake' with mental issues and a history of getting knocked out the same way. He thinks Spann should win based on skills but can't lay -190 on him. He leans Spann but passes on betting.

"I lean Ryan span but minus 190 minus 200 is not a lean price so I think it's a dogger pass situation but pure pick I'm going go Ryan span here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Spann has the athleticism, power, and speed advantage. He should be able to hurt Guskov early and find a finish, likely in the first round. Guskov was knocked out in his UFC debut and may be vulnerable to Spann's power. I expect Spann to win by first-round knockout.

"I do think that we'll see Ryan span dictate the pace really put the pressure on gusov and then eventually find that early finish here give me span and span by first round knock"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Paul picks Spann despite his inconsistencies, arguing Spann has faced much better competition and is more skilled overall. He believes Spann's takedowns and grappling will be the difference, and that Guskov's padded record and lack of durability will be exposed.

"I got to go with span again he's just the better guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann, noting that Bogdan Guskov has never fought someone taller than him and keeps his hands down. He criticizes Guskov's style of throwing shovel hooks from the waist, which may not work against a longer opponent. He believes Spann's reach and low kicks will be effective, and mentions Spann's guillotine threat. He predicts Spann will win, possibly by low kicks.

"I'm going with Ryan span over Bogdan gusov"
WIN vs Zac Pauga
KO (punches) R1 3:38 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Guskov 0 17 of 26 65% 19 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:04
Zac Pauga 1 10 of 29 34% 25 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Guskov 0 17 of 26 65% 19 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:04
Zac Pauga 1 10 of 29 34% 25 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Guskov 17 of 26 65% 7 of 13 2 of 5 8 of 8 14 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0
Zac Pauga 10 of 29 34% 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Guskov 17 of 26 65% 7 of 13 2 of 5 8 of 8 14 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0
Zac Pauga 10 of 29 34% 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Angelo criticizes Zac Pauga for lacking urgency and a game plan in the cage, despite having skills. He notes Pauga has become a striker in the UFC and hasn't shown his pre-UFC wrestling. Bogdan Guskov is described as heavy-handed, with good footwork and combinations, and patience on top. Angelo believes Guskov is the more dangerous fighter and picks him, though he will monitor the odds.

"Bogden gusov will be the pick here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Big Brady picks Bogdan Guskov to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Pauga is the worst finisher in UFC history and has poor striking defense and chin, while Guskov is a one-round banger who will try to take his head off. He calls it a 50-50 fight but favors Guskov's power and aggression.

first round knockout
"I'll take bogdon gusov to go out there and knock out palga in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Cody picks Pauga, noting Guskov is a one-dimensional power puncher with poor cardio and takedown defense. Pauga has decent cardio and can grind out a win by controlling against the cage. Cody thinks Pauga will survive the early storm and take over in later rounds, possibly by knockout.

over 1.5 rounds (-115)
"I'll take palga but what I'm actually interested in betting is the over one and a half rounds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Pauga is more well-rounded and should be able to grind Guskov up against the cage, similar to his fight against Jordan Wright. Guskov relies heavily on early knockout power and has poor durability if he doesn't get the finish. Pauga's grinding style should wear on Guskov, leading to a late finish or decision. However, Pauga's chin is a concern if he eats early shots.

"I think paonga will be able to grind this fight up against the cage and it wouldn't be surprising to me if it looks similarly to that Jordan right fight that he had it's going to be boring it's going …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Paul also picks Pauga, agreeing that Guskov is a can crusher with no chin. He notes Pauga's experience against bigger men and his ability to implement a grinding game plan. Paul expects Pauga to wear on Guskov and get a finish or decision.

"I think PGA can break this man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov because he is fighting Zac Pauga, who he considers a low-level fighter from The Ultimate Fighter. He notes Guskov's good hands and delivery systems, and expects him to have an intimidation advantage on the feet. He predicts a first-round KO win, as Guskov is a finisher who gets most of his fights done in the first round.

first round KO
"I'm GNA go with Bogdan gusov... I think he's got better hands and better Delivery Systems than Zack palga so I'm going to go with Bogdan gusov getting himself a nasty KO win... first round finish here."
LOSS vs Volkan Oezdemir
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:46 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Volkan Oezdemir 1 26 of 46 56% 36 of 64 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:23
Bogdan Guskov 0 8 of 25 32% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Volkan Oezdemir 1 26 of 46 56% 36 of 64 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:23
Bogdan Guskov 0 8 of 25 32% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Volkan Oezdemir 26 of 46 56% 19 of 37 1 of 2 6 of 7 15 of 32 1 of 1 10 of 13
Bogdan Guskov 8 of 25 32% 7 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 1 8 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Volkan Oezdemir 26 of 46 56% 19 of 37 1 of 2 6 of 7 15 of 32 1 of 1 10 of 13
Bogdan Guskov 8 of 25 32% 7 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 1 8 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 26, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Angelo leans towards Bogdan Guskov, calling him the more dangerous guy with well-rounded skills. He notes Volkan Oezdemir has a weak chin and has fought top competition, but Guskov's power and patience on the ground could be key. He hopes for a 2.5 round line to bet the under.

waiting for round props to bet under 2.5 rounds
"I am going to lean danger I am going to pick the more dangerous guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Big Brady picks Oezdemir, despite acknowledging his recent decline and poor performance against Paul Craig. He views Guskov as a 'fraud' with poor cardio, striking defense, and competition level. He expects Oezdemir to finish Guskov early, likely by first-round KO, as this is the easiest fight of Oezdemir's UFC tenure.

Oezdemir wins by first-round KO
"give me Vulcan usdamir to finish Gus Gob and I think it probably happens early as well... give me Volcan ko1"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Cody picks Oezdemir but is hesitant, acknowledging Guskov's first-round KO power and the trend of debuting underdogs winning. He notes Oezdemir has struggled lately, with low volume and no knockdowns in four years, but has elite training and experience. Guskov is a wild card who has only faced regional competition. Cody thinks Oezdemir can point-fight to a decision but Guskov is live for an early finish.

"I guess I will go Vulcan who's Demir but again if you were forced to pull some underdogs here and there you know Gustav's a guy that's at least considered live in my opinion"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Daniel Levi picks Volkan Oezdemir, acknowledging that Oezdemir has shown regression but believes the experience gap is massive. He notes that Oezdemir has fought the who's who of the division, while Guskov is an unproven newcomer with a questionable chin. Levi admits Oezdemir hasn't finished anyone since 2019 and his takedown defense has declined, but he still thinks Oezdemir has enough to win. He is not confident enough to offer a bet, calling it a 'see how it goes' fight.

"I still think he's got enough to win this fight so I'm gonna pick him for that reason"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 2, 2023 (fight day)
Bogdan Guskov

Lucrative James is on Guskov moneyline, believing Oezdemir has been on a downtrend since the Jiri knockout, with worse reaction time and chin. He thinks Guskov has true power, shown by knockouts in multiple ways (elbows, jabs, straight hands). He notes Guskov's submissions are also good, and he has a prop on Guskov by submission at 20-1. He argues that heavyweights with knockout power can step up in competition more easily because they only need one shot.

Bogdan Guskov by submission (+2000)
"I actually bet bogged down goose golf so I'll say that straight off top... I think he has a lot of tools that can make Vulcan ozdamere pay."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

I'm picking Oezdemir here. He has a huge experience advantage and I expect a very pissed off version of him after his last fight. He should use his leg kicking game to slow down Guskov and then find his knockout power within the first 10 minutes. Guskov is a power puncher who finishes early, but when he faces resistance he struggles. Oezdemir's power and experience should be too much.

"I think we'll see Vulcan was the mayor use the combination of his Lane kicking game to slow down gooskov and then really start talking all with the strikes where he should be able to find that no time power …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Paul picks Oezdemir but is scared, recalling Oezdemir's poor performance against Krylov where he was mauled. He compares Guskov to Nursulton Ruziboev, a debuting fighter who crushed a veteran. Paul notes Guskov has first-round KO potential and is a low-owned DFS play. He won't bet the -180 but will pick Oezdemir.

"I'm gonna pick who's Demir with you but like it kind of reminds me of the situation with that uh nurse Sultan Roosevelt Guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir by late second-round TKO, noting that Oezdemir has improved technically and has gone to decisions with tough opponents. He acknowledges Guskov is dangerous but believes Oezdemir will weather early rough moments and find a finish as the fight progresses.

"I'm gonna go volcanoes damir late second round TKO"
Zac Pauga - Fight History
LOSS vs Bogdan Guskov
KO (punches) R1 3:38 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Guskov 0 17 of 26 65% 19 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:04
Zac Pauga 1 10 of 29 34% 25 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Guskov 0 17 of 26 65% 19 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:04
Zac Pauga 1 10 of 29 34% 25 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Guskov 17 of 26 65% 7 of 13 2 of 5 8 of 8 14 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0
Zac Pauga 10 of 29 34% 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Guskov 17 of 26 65% 7 of 13 2 of 5 8 of 8 14 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0
Zac Pauga 10 of 29 34% 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Angelo criticizes Zac Pauga for lacking urgency and a game plan in the cage, despite having skills. He notes Pauga has become a striker in the UFC and hasn't shown his pre-UFC wrestling. Bogdan Guskov is described as heavy-handed, with good footwork and combinations, and patience on top. Angelo believes Guskov is the more dangerous fighter and picks him, though he will monitor the odds.

"Bogden gusov will be the pick here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Big Brady picks Bogdan Guskov to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Pauga is the worst finisher in UFC history and has poor striking defense and chin, while Guskov is a one-round banger who will try to take his head off. He calls it a 50-50 fight but favors Guskov's power and aggression.

first round knockout
"I'll take bogdon gusov to go out there and knock out palga in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Cody picks Pauga, noting Guskov is a one-dimensional power puncher with poor cardio and takedown defense. Pauga has decent cardio and can grind out a win by controlling against the cage. Cody thinks Pauga will survive the early storm and take over in later rounds, possibly by knockout.

over 1.5 rounds (-115)
"I'll take palga but what I'm actually interested in betting is the over one and a half rounds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Pauga is more well-rounded and should be able to grind Guskov up against the cage, similar to his fight against Jordan Wright. Guskov relies heavily on early knockout power and has poor durability if he doesn't get the finish. Pauga's grinding style should wear on Guskov, leading to a late finish or decision. However, Pauga's chin is a concern if he eats early shots.

"I think paonga will be able to grind this fight up against the cage and it wouldn't be surprising to me if it looks similarly to that Jordan right fight that he had it's going to be boring it's going …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Paul also picks Pauga, agreeing that Guskov is a can crusher with no chin. He notes Pauga's experience against bigger men and his ability to implement a grinding game plan. Paul expects Pauga to wear on Guskov and get a finish or decision.

"I think PGA can break this man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov because he is fighting Zac Pauga, who he considers a low-level fighter from The Ultimate Fighter. He notes Guskov's good hands and delivery systems, and expects him to have an intimidation advantage on the feet. He predicts a first-round KO win, as Guskov is a finisher who gets most of his fights done in the first round.

first round KO
"I'm GNA go with Bogdan gusov... I think he's got better hands and better Delivery Systems than Zack palga so I'm going to go with Bogdan gusov getting himself a nasty KO win... first round finish here."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Modestas Bukauskas 0 67 of 117 57% 72 of 123 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:17
Zac Pauga 0 56 of 112 50% 62 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Modestas Bukauskas 0 15 of 29 51% 20 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:04
Zac Pauga 0 13 of 29 44% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Modestas Bukauskas 0 27 of 48 56% 27 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Zac Pauga 0 23 of 40 57% 23 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
3 Modestas Bukauskas 0 25 of 40 62% 25 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Zac Pauga 0 20 of 43 46% 25 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Modestas Bukauskas 67 of 117 57% 35 of 80 25 of 30 7 of 7 58 of 105 7 of 10 2 of 2
Zac Pauga 56 of 112 50% 42 of 96 10 of 12 4 of 4 50 of 102 5 of 9 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Modestas Bukauskas 15 of 29 51% 11 of 23 2 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 25 2 of 2 2 of 2
Zac Pauga 13 of 29 44% 9 of 25 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Modestas Bukauskas 27 of 48 56% 14 of 33 10 of 12 3 of 3 26 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
Zac Pauga 23 of 40 57% 18 of 35 3 of 3 2 of 2 21 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Modestas Bukauskas 25 of 40 62% 10 of 24 13 of 14 2 of 2 21 of 34 4 of 6 0 of 0
Zac Pauga 20 of 43 46% 15 of 36 5 of 7 0 of 0 17 of 37 3 of 6 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Zac Pauga
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-200), Pauga (+170)

Round 1
Welcome to another installment of Dana White’s Saturday Night Contender Series, also known as UFC on ESPN 47 or UFC Vegas 75. This dozen-fight show in the Apex is extremely light on star power, with just three ranked competitors on the whole billing, and two of those are in the main attraction. Sometimes, fight cards less desirable on paper can deliver in a big way, so all hope is not lost. Starting low in the standings at 205 pounds, either one of these men will reach .500 or pass it with a win today. The latter can be said for Pauga (6-1, 1-1 UFC), while the former is available for Bukauskas (14-5, 2-3 UFC) on his second stint with the promotion. The third man in the cage for the first fight of the night is referee Mark Smith, and the two fighters choose la violencia and proceed without a glove touch. Bukauskas takes the middle of the fence, and Pauga practically runs at his opponent. Swinging his fists wildly, Pauga clips Bukauskas with windmilling overhand right, and Bukauskas bangs into the wall and is seeing stars. Pauga closes the distance and grabs hold of his opponent to dump him to the mat. Bukauskas recovers to full guard, and he hacks with elbows off his back until he fights to his feet. Pauga presses heavily on him, but Bukauskas shakes him off and returns to kickboxing range. Pauga sticks out a jab that snaps the head back, and Bukauskas absorbs a subsequent low kick and barely dodges a looping right hook. Pauga attacks the body, and Bukauskas sits down on a thudding leg kick. Pauga dings Bukauskas with a pair of hooks, and he uses the momentum to press “The Baltic Gladiator” to the fencing. Pauga hunts for a trip as he tangles up Bukauskas’ legs, and Bukauskas is able to stifle the attempt and a redoubled effort from the former NFL player. Bukauskas shoves him away, and Pauga springs back away from a straight left hand. Bukauskas follows it with a high kick and a jab, and Pauga ignores it to double up his jabs. Pauga swings too hard with a right hand, and Bukauskas catches him with a right hand counter. Pauga shakes it out, and the two trade heavy leather in an exchange. Chins remain intact, and Bukauskas swipes out with a left hook that grazes the chin. Bukauskas counters an advancing Pauga with a right hand, and Pauga is rocked and shoots for an emergency takedown. Bukauskas stands him up and pushes him away, but he does not empty his gas tank hunting for a finish. Instead, Bukauskas tags him with a big right hand, and the horn blares right after Pauga gets one back.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pauga
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Pauga
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pauga

Round 2
The light heavyweights come together in the center of the Octagon, ready to trade, but they are somewhat cautious of the other’s power. Bukauskas lands first with a chipping calf kick, and Pauga walks into a counter right hand. Bukauskas strafes to the side, and they both snap out powerful jabs. Pauga takes the worst of it when they land at the same time, but he does not seem concerned as he races forward with a swinging hook and a level change for a double. Bukauskas avoids the former and shrugs off the latter, and he circles away to aim a left hand at the chest. Pauga splits the guard with a left hand, and he surges forward and hits nothing but air with Bukauskas out of harm’s way. Pauga plants his shin on Bukauskas’ raising leg, and he jabs, ducks and bangs a right hand off Bukauskas’ chin. Pauga lunges, and Bukauskas reacts by jumping away from him. Bukauskas sits down on a thudding low kick, and Pauga comes at him throwing haymakers. Bukauskas prepares a right hand counter but does not release it as Pauga is rushing at him. They trade low kicks, and Bukauskas’ foot goes up to bump off the cup. Pauga waves off Smith, and he raises his guard right in the nick of time when Bukauskas zooms a high kick at him. Pauga keeps plodding forward, jabbing his way in, and he telegraphs a big right hand on the way. Pauga dips and scores a short right hook, and Bukauskas replies with the fall of his foot on the chest. Pauga strides forward, right hand ready for bear, and he knocks Bukauskas back and digs punches to the body. Bukauskas tries to keep circling away and respond with a few punches, but he is more intent on dodging the wide arcing blows aimed at his chin. Pauga steps through with a straight right hand, wobbling Bukauskas and sending him ricocheting off the fencing. Pauga ends up clinched, but he moves back so he can unload power punches. Bukauskas avoids the worst of it but his face is swelling from the blows. Bukauskas ends the round with a few hooks of his own.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pauga
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Pauga
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pauga

Round 3
The last round begins with Bukauskas trying to keep a slugging Pauga at bay. He cannot do so, as Pauga runs him down and busts him in the chops. Bukauskas responds with a big body kick, and Pauga bites down on his mouthpiece to throw bombs. Bukauskas closes the distance to stop Pauga from reaching him with these winging punches, and he presses the American against the fence. Smith tells Bukauskas to work as the two do little in the position, and Bukauskas answers this by gripping his hands around the back. Pauga fights off the potential takedown setup, and he ignores a few knees to the thigh. Pauga explodes to turn him around, and the two end up splitting with three minutes left on the clock. Bukauskas misses with a check left hook, as Pauga throws him off with feints and fakes now. Bukauskas connects with a clean right hand as Pauga sits still for too long, and Pauga blinks it out and flicks out a jab. The two clash together when throwing hands, and Pauga backs Bukauskas away with a sprinting right hand. Pauga kicks the ribs, and Bukauskas stands him up with a long punch. Pauga, not discouraged, throws another kick to the same spot, and this time he is not answered the same. Pauga winds up on a power right hand, and Bukauskas wears it well and is forced to eat a second one right after. Pauga aims another body kick, and he times a takedown when Bukauskas comes at him. Pauga ducks a punch to unloads a hefty right hand, and he absorbs a flush one-two without batting an eye. Pauga nearly falls over when swinging for the fences, and he clips Bukauskas with an overhand right. Bukauskas tries to counter, and he spins with a back kick but Pauga is too close. Bukauskas pops him with a jab, and he spins with a back kick that finds its mark. Pauga rushes headlong into a punch, and the two engage in one last mighty slugfest before the final bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pauga (30-27 Pauga)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Pauga (30-27 Pauga)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Pauga)

The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Zac Pauga via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas because he is the more technical striker and this is mostly a striking matchup. He notes that if Zac Pauga could wrestle effectively, he'd be the easy pick, but Pauga hasn't shown that wrestling in the UFC. However, Angelo acknowledges there is a world where Pauga holds Bukauskas against the cage for 15 minutes and wins a decision, so he does not place a bet.

"the pick here is going to be modestis he should be the better Striker and a mostly striking matchup but there's not going to be a bet here for me because there's absolutely a world where he has just held …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Big Brady picks Zac Pauga to win by decision, but he is very low on both fighters. He criticizes Bukauskas for low volume and power, and Pauga for taking Jordan Wright to a decision, which he calls a terrible look. However, Pauga throws more volume and has solid cardio. Brady thinks Pauga can hold Bukauskas against the cage and potentially take him down, as Bukauskas has struggled with takedown defense in the past. He expects a boring fight with Pauga winning a close decision.

"I'm gonna take powga here I suppose like I said I'm so low on on both these guys."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Cody is confident in Bukauskas, citing his speed, striking advantage, and improved cardio since returning to the UFC. He notes that Pauga's only notable win is a decision over Jordan Wright, which was uninspiring, and that Pauga is 35 with only three years of pro experience. Cody thinks Bukauskas will outwork Pauga and possibly get a TKO in the second or third round.

"I think the speed advantages for modestus I think the Striking Advantage is for modestus I think he could TKO second in the third round"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Connor picks Bukauskas, acknowledging his limited boxing but noting his athleticism and size. He believes Bukauskas has improved his aggression and output, as seen in the Tyson Pedro fight. Connor expects Bukauskas to use his reach and movement to outwork Pauga, who lacks dynamic speed. He thinks Bukauskas will win by decision or late stoppage.

"I think he's a fighter to pick for me to pick him over power."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Daniel Levi leans toward Modestas Bukauskas, citing his size, length, and experience. He notes Pauga's greenness and that the UFC may be setting up Bukauskas as a prospect. He thinks Bukauskas could win by knockout. However, he is not interested in betting at -200 and sees it as a pass at current odds.

"I'm going to lean with him but uh I'm not interested in link shock on him in this spot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Pauga has a good enough striking and overall MMA game to tie up Bukauskas in the clinch, drag him to the ground, and do damage from top. He has good cardio to maintain this for 15 minutes. Bukauskas is overhyped due to recency bias from his win over Tyson Pedro. Pauga is a solid underdog at plus 165. Pauga wins by decision.

"give me Zach Paulo her by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Paul agrees, noting that Pauga's win over Jordan Wright was terrible and that he will be picking against Pauga for the rest of eternity. He thinks Bukauskas is younger, more experienced, and has rebuilt himself after a knee injury. Paul expects Bukauskas to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.

"I'll be just picking against powga moving forward for the rest of Eternity until he proves me otherwise"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, citing a massive advantage at range on the feet against Zac Pauga. He notes Pauga was on one of the worst seasons of TUF and lacks skill at range, while Bukauskas is technical with good footwork. He also mentions Bukauskas has improved since his first UFC stint, with a win over Tyson Pedro on short notice and a controversial loss to Khalil Rountree. He believes Bukauskas is reborn and will continue his momentum.

"I am going to be going towards modestus picauskas here I think he has a massive Advantage at range on the feet against powger"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Zane picks Bukauskas, noting his improved output and good frame for light heavyweight. He throws long strikes and has power that can be decisive. Zane criticizes Pauga as not dynamic, lacking speed, and only beating Jordan Wright by clinching. He expects Bukauskas to move around, make Pauga look slow, and land consistent one-twos for a clear decision or late TKO.

"This seems like a pretty simple read to me just for Bukowski."
WIN vs Jordan Wright
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Feb 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zac Pauga 0 29 of 78 37% 199 of 261 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Jordan Wright 0 59 of 85 69% 85 of 114 0 of 6 0% 0 0 8:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zac Pauga 0 5 of 7 71% 55 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jordan Wright 0 22 of 26 84% 43 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:32
2 Zac Pauga 0 7 of 19 36% 105 of 122 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Jordan Wright 0 15 of 22 68% 20 of 30 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:27
3 Zac Pauga 0 17 of 52 32% 39 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jordan Wright 0 22 of 37 59% 22 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zac Pauga 29 of 78 37% 15 of 55 13 of 21 1 of 2 18 of 65 11 of 13 0 of 0
Jordan Wright 59 of 85 69% 31 of 54 21 of 24 7 of 7 21 of 42 38 of 43 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zac Pauga 5 of 7 71% 1 of 3 4 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 3 4 of 4 0 of 0
Jordan Wright 22 of 26 84% 8 of 11 11 of 12 3 of 3 1 of 2 21 of 24 0 of 0
2 Zac Pauga 7 of 19 36% 5 of 16 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 13 4 of 6 0 of 0
Jordan Wright 15 of 22 68% 10 of 16 3 of 4 2 of 2 3 of 8 12 of 14 0 of 0
3 Zac Pauga 17 of 52 32% 9 of 36 7 of 14 1 of 2 14 of 49 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jordan Wright 22 of 37 59% 13 of 27 7 of 8 2 of 2 17 of 32 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Angelo is confident in Pauga, citing his strong wrestling and low stance. He notes Pauga went up to heavyweight for TUF but is a natural light heavyweight. Jordan Wright has a 100% finish rate but is on a three-fight losing streak by stoppage and has a weak chin. Angelo thinks Pauga will wrestle and win, but there's no value in the betting line so he won't bet.

"Zach should absolutely get this done I'm not gonna spend three units on a dude with six professional fights."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jordan Wright

Big Brady is picking Jordan Wright for the upset, despite never picking him before. He notes that Pauga was knocked out by Muhammad Usman, who is not a power puncher, and that Pauga has only a 20% finish rate. He believes Wright is dangerous in the first two minutes and should come out aggressively rather than wrestling, as his cardio is poor. He predicts a first-round knockout for Wright.

Wright by KO, round 1
"I'm gonna take Jordan right for the big upset... I think he's going to have a ton of opportunities here to get that first round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Cody picks Pauga but is terrified of the -270 line. He notes Jordan Wright has only 5-6 minutes of cardio and is an under machine, but Pauga isn't a big finisher. He says Wright can absolutely get finishes early, so he'll watch weigh-ins closely. He compares Wright to Terence McKinney as a 50/50 fighter who either finishes early or gets pieced up. He also mentions Pauga got knocked out in his last fight and has been hurt before, so he's not confident.

Cody mentions he bet Pauga last time at -275 and lost. He considers under 2.5 rounds and thinks Pauga knocks Wright out. He says Pauga will be on parlays.
"I'll pick powga but that minus 270 I am I am terrified."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jordan Wright

Connor picks Wright because he thinks the move to light heavyweight could benefit Wright's speed and power, and Pauga is inexperienced and slow. However, he acknowledges Wright's mental fragility and tendency to panic. He picks Wright to win by first-round KO, but says he wouldn't bet on it.

Wright by KO is +350, inside distance +275, win in round 1 +450 to +575. Connor says 'I wouldn't bet on this. Please don't.'
"I guess I'll pick Jordan, right? I mean first round KO is the only way to pick him. So I'll pick him to finish quick."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Jacob picks Pauga but is a Jordan Wright fan. He thinks Wright's chin is gone and his blitzing style leaves him open. Pauga's wrestling and power at 205 should be too much. Jacob played the under 1.5 rounds and feels good about it, though he cautions both are coming off knockout losses. He expects Wright to get knocked out again.

Jacob played under 1.5 rounds.
"I played the under one and a half I feel pretty good about might load up even more."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Pauga has better cardio and a more complete MMA game, while Wright fades after the first round and has durability issues. Pauga can survive the early storm and then take over with grappling and pressure, finishing Wright via ground and pound in the second or third round.

fight doesn't go to decision; Pauga wins by TKO in round 2 or 3
"I think if you're willing to eat any Chalk in this matchup it should be the violence... Pauga with a late TKO finish."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Paul agrees with Cody, calling Jordan Wright a lost fighter with no cardio or durability. He details Wright's pattern of starting fast but fading and getting finished. He notes Pauga has excellent cardio, trains at altitude, and has enough striking to pressure Wright. However, he says the -270 line is too high for a guy with one UFC win who got knocked out. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds at -350 as a parlay piece.

Paul highlights under 2.5 rounds at -350 and under 1.5 rounds at -175. He says Wright doesn't have 15 minutes in him against anybody.
"I probably hit the under I don't know if I like under one and a half like under two and a half and then I'm thinking probably Clips on Pogo puts him away."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

The MMA Guru picks Zac Pauga, citing his takedown defense from The Ultimate Fighter and his size advantage. He criticizes Jordan Wright's poor decision-making and quick turnaround after a KO loss. He believes Pauga is patient and can catch Wright with a counter shot after Wright gets reckless in round two, predicting a KO. He notes the possibility of an upset but trusts Pauga's chin more.

KO in round two
"I'm gonna go with Zach paulaga by KO wouldn't be surprised if I got an upset though but I'm just not willing to trust his chin in a scrappy fight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Zane picks Pauga because Jordan Wright has a history of panicking and losing focus when he doesn't finish early. Wright is dangerous early but fades and makes defensive mistakes. Pauga is raw but has a takedown game and can survive the initial storm. Zane notes that Wright's move to light heavyweight seems desperate and may not fix his mental issues.

Wright by KO is +350, inside distance +275, win in round 1 +450 to +575. Wright opened +170, now +226; Pauga opened -195, now -281. Zane says he wouldn't bet on this.
"I'll take pauga. I mean it's just kind of... I'm interested to see what he can do. He could very easily be more like Villanueva than Mark Andre Barrio."
LOSS vs Mohammed Usman
KO (punches) R2 0:36 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mohammed Usman 1 12 of 40 30% 13 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Zac Pauga 0 32 of 50 64% 33 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mohammed Usman 0 9 of 35 25% 10 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Zac Pauga 0 31 of 46 67% 32 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mohammed Usman 1 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Zac Pauga 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mohammed Usman 12 of 40 30% 11 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 35 1 of 2 2 of 3
Zac Pauga 32 of 50 64% 14 of 29 9 of 10 9 of 11 31 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mohammed Usman 9 of 35 25% 8 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 1
Zac Pauga 31 of 46 67% 14 of 26 8 of 9 9 of 11 30 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Mohammed Usman 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 2
Zac Pauga 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Mohammed Usman

Angelo has a slight lean towards Mohammed Usman due to his size, power, and physicality. He notes that Pauga is the better overall fighter but his size disadvantage at heavyweight could be decisive. He references Pauga being dropped by Terence Jacquez and believes a similar shot from Usman could finish him. However, he acknowledges Usman has had issues with wrestlers in the past.

"I think it's a very slight very slight lean towards usman with the incredible power and the phys physicality"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Big Brady picks Zac Pauga, noting his speed and cardio advantages over Mohammed Usman. He criticizes Usman's low volume and poor cardio, and praises Pauga's takedown defense and improved striking. He predicts Pauga will stuff takedowns and win a decision, though he notes Pauga is undersized for heavyweight. He also mentions Pauga's training at Elevation Fight Team with Curtis Blaydes.

decision win prediction
"i still think zach powell should win this fight and win it by decision stuffing the takedowns if they come"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Cody also picks Pauga, highlighting his undefeated record and clean performances on TUF. He notes that Pauga is a natural 205-pounder who moved up for the show and will likely move back down. Cody contrasts Pauga's refined skills with Usman's poor losses and questionable wins, including a controversial decision. He believes Pauga's speed and output will overwhelm Usman.

"I got to agree with Zach Pauga being the pick... he looked really good on the ultimate fighter... he never gets touched once."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Paul picks Pauga, noting that Pauga is a former football player with good mobility and athleticism. He mentions that Pauga looked impressive on The Ultimate Fighter, throwing spinning attacks and showing improvement. Paul is wary of laying -250 on a debuting heavyweight but sees Pauga as the clear pick.

"Zach Pauga is clearly the pick for me... he looks pretty mobile on his feet... he's like throwing spin and stuff."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

The MMA Guru picks Zac Pauga by third-round ground-and-pound TKO. He praises Pauga's technique and undefeated record, and criticizes Mohammed Usman's lack of commitment and poor performances. He believes Pauga's Samoan chin will allow him to take shots and break Usman down.

third round ground and pound tko
"i'm going to go zack pwaga... i'm going to see the samoan guy take a couple of big shots early put the pressure on mohammed usman and break him down"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Angelo criticizes Zac Pauga for lacking urgency and a game plan in the cage, despite having skills. He notes Pauga has become a striker in the UFC and hasn't shown his pre-UFC wrestling. Bogdan Guskov is described as heavy-handed, with good footwork and combinations, and patience on top. Angelo believes Guskov is the more dangerous fighter and picks him, though he will monitor the odds.

"Bogden gusov will be the pick here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Big Brady picks Bogdan Guskov to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Pauga is the worst finisher in UFC history and has poor striking defense and chin, while Guskov is a one-round banger who will try to take his head off. He calls it a 50-50 fight but favors Guskov's power and aggression.

first round knockout
"I'll take bogdon gusov to go out there and knock out palga in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Cody picks Pauga, noting Guskov is a one-dimensional power puncher with poor cardio and takedown defense. Pauga has decent cardio and can grind out a win by controlling against the cage. Cody thinks Pauga will survive the early storm and take over in later rounds, possibly by knockout.

over 1.5 rounds (-115)
"I'll take palga but what I'm actually interested in betting is the over one and a half rounds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Pauga is more well-rounded and should be able to grind Guskov up against the cage, similar to his fight against Jordan Wright. Guskov relies heavily on early knockout power and has poor durability if he doesn't get the finish. Pauga's grinding style should wear on Guskov, leading to a late finish or decision. However, Pauga's chin is a concern if he eats early shots.

"I think paonga will be able to grind this fight up against the cage and it wouldn't be surprising to me if it looks similarly to that Jordan right fight that he had it's going to be boring it's going to be slow it's going to be a grind as …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Paul also picks Pauga, agreeing that Guskov is a can crusher with no chin. He notes Pauga's experience against bigger men and his ability to implement a grinding game plan. Paul expects Pauga to wear on Guskov and get a finish or decision.

"I think PGA can break this man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov because he is fighting Zac Pauga, who he considers a low-level fighter from The Ultimate Fighter. He notes Guskov's good hands and delivery systems, and expects him to have an intimidation advantage on the feet. He predicts a first-round KO win, as Guskov is a finisher who gets most of his fights done in the first round.

first round KO
"I'm GNA go with Bogdan gusov... I think he's got better hands and better Delivery Systems than Zack palga so I'm going to go with Bogdan gusov getting himself a nasty KO win... first round finish here."